Contreras, Sergio; Garcia-León, David; Hunink, Johannes E.
Drought monitoring (DM) is a key component of risk-centered drought preparedness plans and drought policies. InfoDROUGHT (www.infosequia.es) is a a site- and user-tailored and fully-integrated DM system which combines functionalities for: a) the operational satellite-based weekly-1km tracking of severity and spatial extent of drought impacts, b) the interactive and faster query and delivery of drought information through a web-mapping service. InfoDROUGHT has a flexible and modular structure. The calibration (threshold definitions) and validation of the system is performed by combining expert knowledge and auxiliary impact assessments and datasets. Different technical solutions (basic or advanced versions) or deployment options (open-standard or restricted-authenticated) can be purchased by end-users and customers according to their needs. In this analysis, the technical reliability of InfoDROUGHT and its performance for detecting drought impacts on agriculture has been evaluated in the 2003-2014 period by exploring and quantifying the relationships among the drought severity indices reported by InfoDROUGHT and the annual yield anomalies observed for different rainfed crops (maize, wheat, barley) at Spain. We hypothesize a positive relationship between the crop anomalies and the drought severity level detected by InfoDROUGHT. Annual yield anomalies were computed at the province administrative level as the difference between the annual yield reported by the Spanish Annual Survey of Crop Acreages and Yields (ESYRCE database) and the mean annual yield estimated during the study period. Yield anomalies were finally compared against drought greenness-based and thermal-based drought indices (VCI and TCI, respectively) to check the coherence of the outputs and the hypothesis stated. InfoDROUGHT has been partly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competiveness through a Torres-Quevedo grant, and by the H2020-EU project "Bridging the Gap for Innovations in
Neri, C.; Magaña Rueda, V.
The occurrence of meteorological droughts in Mexico has brought to light the large vulnerability of the central-northern part of the country to water shortages. This region is facing current and future water shortages due to the increased demand of water from urban growth in addition to droughts. Assessing droughts requires considering long-term losses and side effects. However, governments generally invest little resources in the creation of drought risk reduction programs, even in regions where droughts have been documented in historical records, such as in the northern region of Mexico. It is not clear until now, what is our capacity to predict droughts on seasonal time scale, and even the Drought Monitor for North America not always reflect the severity of the condition at the regional level. An analysis of strategies that focus on droughts show that one of the principal limits in the management of drought risks and preventive decision making is the use of inadequate definitions of drought predictability. In addition, the means to communicate confidence in seasonal climate forecasts has inhibited the use of climate information in the planning of various socioeconomic activities. Although some sectors such as agriculture have programs to reduce the impacts of drought, their efforts have focused in providing subsidies to get along with dry conditions. In other words, there are no actions to reduce the potential impacts of drought. The characterization of the vulnerability of water user groups, particularly in Sonora as case of study, has been useful to identifying what type of climate information decision makers needed. This information will be included in a proposal of a drought early warming for Mexico. A key element in a drought early warming for Mexico is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using
Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.
Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014
Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.
The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and
Molthan, A.; Maskey, M.; Hain, C.; Meyer, P.; Nair, U. S.; Handyside, C. T.; White, K.; Amin, M.
Each year, drought impacts various regions of the United States on time scales of weeks, months, seasons, or years, which in turn leads to a need to document these impacts and inform key decisions on land management, use of water resources, and disaster response. Mapping impacts allows decision-makers to understand potential damage to agriculture and loss of production, to communicate and document drought impacts on crop yields, and to inform water management decisions. Current efforts to collect this information includes parsing of media reports, collaborations with local extension offices, and partnerships with the National Weather Service cooperative observer network. As part of a NASA Citizen Science for Earth Systems proposal award, a research and applications team from Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and collaborators within the NWS have developed a prototype smartphone application focused on the collection of citizen science observations of crop health and drought impacts, along with development of innovative low-cost soil moisture sensors to supplement subjective assessments of local soil moisture conditions. Observations provided by citizen scientists include crop type and health, phase of growth, soil moisture conditions, irrigation status, along with an optional photo and comment to provide visual confirmation and other details. In exchange for their participation, users of the app also have access to unique land surface modeling data sets produced at MSFC such as the NASA Land Information System soil moisture and climatology/percentile products from the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, assessments of vegetation health and stress from NASA and NOAA remote sensing platforms (e.g. MODIS/VIIRS), outputs from a crop stress model developed at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, recent rainfall estimates from the NOAA/NWS network of ground-based weather radars, and other observations made
Petkova, Valia T.; Lu Yuan; Ion, Roxana A.; Sander, Peter C.
It is well-known [Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 75 (2002) 295] that in modern development processes it is essential to have an information flow structure that facilitates fast feedback from product users (customers) to departments at the front end, in particular development and production. As information is only relevant if it is used when taking decisions, this paper presents a guideline for building field feedback information flows that facilitate the decision taking during the product creation and realisation process. The guideline takes into consideration that the type of decisions depends on the span-of-control, therefore following Parsons [Structure and Process in Modern Societies (1990)] the span-of-control is subdivided into the following three levels: strategic, tactic, and executive. The guideline is illustrated with a case in which it is used for analysing the quality of existing field feedback flows
Chanda, Kironmala; Maity, Rajib; Sharma, Ashish; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar
This paper characterizes the long-term, spatiotemporal variation of drought propensity through a newly proposed, namely Drought Management Index (DMI), and explores its predictability in order to assess the future drought propensity and adapt drought management policies for a location. The DMI was developed using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability (RRV) rationale commonly used in water resources systems analysis, under the assumption that depletion of soil moisture across a vertical soil column is equivalent to the operation of a water supply reservoir, and that drought should be managed not simply using a measure of system reliability, but should also take into account the readiness of the system to bounce back from drought to a normal state. Considering India as a test bed, 5 year long monthly gridded (0.5° Lat × 0.5° Lon) soil moisture data are used to compute the RRV at each grid location falling within the study domain. The Permanent Wilting Point (PWP) is used as the threshold, indicative of transition into water stress. The association between resilience and vulnerability is then characterized through their joint probability distribution ascertained using Plackett copula models for four broad soil types across India. The joint cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of resilience and vulnerability form the basis for estimating the DMI as a five-yearly time series at each grid location assessed. The status of DMI over the past 50 years indicate that drought propensity is consistently low toward northern and north eastern parts of India but higher in the western part of peninsular India. Based on the observed past behavior of DMI series on a climatological time scale, a DMI prediction model comprising deterministic and stochastic components is developed. The predictability of DMI for a lead time of 5 years is found to vary across India, with a Pearson correlation coefficient between observed and predicted DMI above 0.6 over most of the study area
Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.
The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process
Pulwarty, R. S.; Schubert, S. D.
Drought is a slow-onset hazard that is a normal part of climate. Drought onset and demise are difficult to determine. Impacts are mostly nonstructural, spread over large geographical areas, and can persist long after precipitation deficits end. These factors hinder development of accurate, timely estimates of drought severity and resultant responses. Drivers of drought range from SST anomalies and global scale atmospheric response, through regional forcing and local land-surface feedbacks. Key climatological questions related to drought risk assessment, perception and management include, "Does a drought end by a return to normal precipitation; how much moisture is required and over what period; can the end of a drought be defined by the diminishing impacts e.g. soil moisture, reservoir volumes; will precipitation patterns on which management systems rely, change in the future?" Effective early warning systems inform strategic responses that anticipate crises and crisis evolution across climate timescales. While such "early information" is critical for defining event onset, it is even more critical for identifying the potential for increases in severity. Many social and economic systems have buffers in place to respond to onset (storage, transfers and purchase of grain) but lack response capabilities as drought intensifies, as buffers are depleted. Throughout the drought lifecycle (and between events), monitoring, research and risk assessments are required to: Map decision-making processes and resource capabilities including degradation of water and ecosystems Place multiple climate and land surface indicators within a consistent triggering framework (e.g. climate and vegetation mapping) before critical thresholds are reached Identify policies and practices that impede or enable the flow of information, through policy gaming and other exercises The presentation will outline the capabilities and framework needed to ensure improved scientific inputs to preparedness
Oct 4, 2003 ... The first method was originally developed for water resource system performance evaluation and ... frequency and system reliability are indices, which are normally used to ..... Effects of intermittent watering on Merino sheep.
Rainfall data from 14 stations (cities, towns and major villages) spanning 26 years (1970 to 1995) were used to calculate reliability and vulnerability of rainfall in Botswana. Time series data for 72 years were generated from the long-term rainfall gauging stations and the number of wet and dry years determined. Apart from ...
Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.
Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are
Full Text Available Drought events in the Mediterranean are likely to increase in frequency, duration and intensity due to climate change, thereby affecting crop production. Information about drought is valuable for river basin authorities and the farmers affected by their decisions. The economic value of this information and the resulting decisions are of interest to these two stakeholder groups and to the information providers. Understanding the dynamics of extreme events, including droughts, in future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean is being improved continuously. This paper analyses the economic value of information on drought events taking into account the risk aversion of water managers. We consider the effects of drought management plans on rice production in the Ebro river basin. This enables us to compute the willingness to compensate the river basin authority for more accurate information allowing for better decision-making. If runoff is reduced, river basin planners can consider the reduction of water allocation for irrigation in order to eliminate the risk of water scarcity. Alternately, river basin planners may decide to maintain water allocation and accept a reduction of water supply reliability, leaving farmers exposed to drought events. These two alternatives offer different risk levels for crop production and farmers' incomes which determine the value of this information to the river basin authority. The information is relevant for the revision of River Basin Management Plans of the Water Framework Directive (WFD within the context of climate change.
Lennard, Amy; Macdonald, Neil; Hooke, Janet
Drought indicators are an under-used metric in UK drought management. Standardised drought indicators offer a potential monitoring and management tool for operational water resource management. However, the use of these metrics needs further investigation. This work uses statistical analysis of the climatological drought signal based on meteorological drought indicators and observed streamflow data to explore the link between meteorological drought and hydrological drought to inform water resource management for a single water resource region. The region, covering 21,000 km2 of the English Midlands and central Wales, includes a variety of landscapes and climatological conditions. Analysis of the links between meteorological drought and hydrological drought performed using streamflow data from 'natural' catchments indicates a close positive relationship between meteorological drought indicators and streamflow, enhancing confidence in the application of drought indicators for monitoring and management. However, many of the catchments in the region are subject to modification through impoundments, abstractions and discharge. Therefore, it is beneficial to explore how climatological drought signal propagates into managed hydrological systems. Using a longitudinal study of catchments and sub-catchments that include natural and modified river reaches the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought is explored. Initial statistical analysis of meteorological drought indicators and streamflow data from modified catchments shows a significantly weakened statistical relationship and reveals how anthropogenic activities may alter hydrological drought characteristics in modified catchments. Exploring how meteorological drought indicators link to streamflow across the water supply region helps build an understanding of their utility for operational water resource management.
Hazbavi, Zeinab; Baartman, Jantiene E.M.; Nunes, João P.; Keesstra, Saskia D.; Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza
Climate-related extremes such as droughts have led to significant impacts on some watersheds. To assess watershed health and develop effective management plans, information about the function and structure of the watersheds in the context of their climatic response, especially to take into account
Quevauviller, P.; Lanen, Van Henny A.J.
Drought is one of the most extreme weather-related natural hazards. It differs from other hydrometeorological extremes in several ways. It develops gradually and usually over large areas (transnational), mostly resulting from a prolonged period (from months to years) of below-normal
Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Kirstin Dow
The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is in the process of developingÂ drought early warning systems in areas of the U.S. where the development and coordinationÂ of drought information is needed. In summer 2012, NIDIS launched a pilot program in NorthÂ and South Carolina, addressing the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems.
Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Sheffield, J.; Yuan, X.
forecasts are bias corrected, downscaled and used as inputs to the VIC LSM as well as forecasts based on ESP and CPC official seasonal outlook. For Africa, data from a combination of remote sensing (TMPA-based precipitation, land cover characteristics) and GFS analysis fields (temperature and wind) are used to monitor drought using our soil moisture drought index as well as 1, 3 and and 6-month SPI. River discharge is also estimated at over 900 locations. Seasonal forecasts have been developed using CFSv2 climate forecasts following the approaches used over CONUS. We will discuss the performance of the system to evaluate the depiction of drought over various scales, from regional to the African continent, and over a number of years to capture multiple drought events. Furthermore, the hindcasts from the seasonal drought forecast system are analyzed to assess the ability of seasonal climate models to detect drought on-set and its recovery. Finally, we will discuss whether our ADM provides a pathway to a Global Drought Information System, a goal of the WCRP Drought Task Force.
Schreuders, K. A.; Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Sen Gupta, A.; Reeder, S.
The National Drought Information System (NIDIS) Upper Colorado River Basin pilot study is investigating and establishing capabilities for better dissemination of drought information for early warning and management. As part of this study we are using and extending functionality from the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) Hydrologic Information System (HIS) to provide better access to drought-related data in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The CUAHSI HIS is a federated system for sharing hydrologic data. It is comprised of multiple data servers, referred to as HydroServers, that publish data in a standard XML format called Water Markup Language (WaterML), using web services referred to as WaterOneFlow web services. HydroServers can also publish geospatial data using Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) web map, feature and coverage services and are capable of hosting web and map applications that combine geospatial datasets with observational data served via web services. HIS also includes a centralized metadata catalog that indexes data from registered HydroServers and a data access client referred to as HydroDesktop. For NIDIS, we have established a HydroServer to publish drought index values as well as the input data used in drought index calculations. Primary input data required for drought index calculation include streamflow, precipitation, reservoir storages, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture. We have developed procedures to redistribute the input data to the time and space scales chosen for drought index calculation, namely half monthly time intervals for HUC 10 subwatersheds. The spatial redistribution approaches used for each input parameter are dependent on the spatial linkages for that parameter, i.e., the redistribution procedure for streamflow is dependent on the upstream/downstream connectivity of the stream network, and the precipitation redistribution procedure is dependent on elevation to account
This article presents a concise reliability analysis of network security abstracted from stochastic modeling, reliability, and queuing theories. Network security analysis is composed of threats, their impacts, and recovery of the failed systems. A unique framework with a collection of the key reliability models is presented here to guide the determination of the system reliability based on the strength of malicious acts and performance of the recovery processes. A unique model, called Attack-obstacle model, is also proposed here for analyzing systems with immunity growth features. Most computer science curricula do not contain courses in reliability modeling applicable to different areas of computer engineering. Hence, the topic of reliability analysis is often too diffuse to most computer engineers and researchers dealing with network security. This work is thus aimed at shedding some light on this issue, which can be useful in identifying models, their assumptions and practical parameters for estimating the reliability of threatened systems and for assessing the performance of recovery facilities. It can also be useful for the classification of processes and states regarding the reliability of information systems. Systems with stochastic behaviors undergoing queue operations and random state transitions can also benefit from the approaches presented here. - Highlights: • A concise survey and tutorial in model-based reliability analysis applicable to information security. • A framework of key modeling approaches for assessing reliability of networked systems. • The framework facilitates quantitative risk assessment tasks guided by stochastic modeling and queuing theory. • Evaluation of approaches and models for modeling threats, failures, impacts, and recovery analysis of information systems
Full Text Available Internet is used by many patients to obtain relevant medical information. We assessed the impact of "Google" search on the knowledge of the parents whose ward suffered from squint. In 21 consecutive patients, the "Google" search improved the mean score of the correct answers from 47% to 62%. We found that "Google" search was useful and reliable source of information for the patients with regards to the disease etiopathogenesis and the problems caused by the disease. The internet-based information, however, was incomplete and not reliable with regards to the disease treatment.
Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.
Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early
An increasing number of extramural applications in the personal healthcare domain pose new challenges regarding the security of medical data. In this paper, we focus on remote patient monitoring systems and the issues around information reliability. In these systems medical data is not collected by
Kuwayama, Y.; Bernknopf, R.; Macauley, M.; Brookshire, D.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Rodell, M.
Water storage anomalies derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Data Assimilation System (GRACE-DAS) have been used to enhance the information contained in drought indicators. The potential value of this information is to inform local and regional decisions to improve economic welfare in the face of drought. Based on a characterization of current drought evaluations, a modeling framework has been structured to analyze the contributed value of the Earth observations in the assessment of the onset and duration of droughts and their regional impacts. The analysis focuses on (1) characterizing how GRACE-DAS provides Earth observation information for a drought warning, (2) assessing how a GRACE-DAS-enhanced U.S. Drought Monitor would improve economic outcomes in a region, and (3) applying this enhancement process in a decision framework to illustrate the potential role of GRACE data products in a recent drought and response scenario for a value-of-information (VOI) analysis. The VOI analysis quantifies the relative contribution of enhanced understanding and communication of the societal benefits associated with GRACE Earth observation science. Our emphasis is to illustrate the role of an enhanced National Integrated Drought Information System outlook on three key societal outcomes: effects on particular economic sectors, changes in land management decisions, and reductions in damages to ecosystem services.
Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford
The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas IntegratedÂ Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Â funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to developÂ and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projectsÂ focus on...
Stillwell, A. S.; Lubega, W. N.
A large proportion of thermal power plants in the United States use cooling systems that discharge large volumes of heated water into rivers and cooling ponds. To minimize thermal pollution from these discharges, restrictions are placed on temperatures at the edge of defined mixing zones in the receiving waters. However, during extended hydrological droughts and heat waves, power plants are often granted thermal variances permitting them to exceed these temperature restrictions. These thermal variances are often deemed necessary for maintaining electricity reliability, particularly as heat waves cause increased electricity demand. Current practice, however, lacks tools for the development of grid-scale operational policies specifying generator output levels that ensure reliable electricity supply while minimizing thermal variances. Such policies must take into consideration characteristics of individual power plants, topology and characteristics of the electricity grid, and locations of power plants within the river basin. In this work, we develop a methodology for the development of these operational policies that captures necessary factors. We develop optimal rules for different hydrological and meteorological conditions, serving as rule curves for thermal power plants. The rules are conditioned on leading modes of the ambient hydrological and meteorological conditions at the different power plant locations, as the locations are geographically close and hydrologically connected. Heat dissipation in the rivers and cooling ponds is modeled using the equilibrium temperature concept. Optimal rules are determined through a Monte Carlo sampling optimization framework. The methodology is applied to a case study of eight power plants in Illinois that were granted thermal variances in the summer of 2012, with a representative electricity grid model used in place of the actual electricity grid.
Love, C. A.; Aghakouchak, A.; Madadgar, S.; Tourian, M. J.
California has been experiencing its most extreme drought in recent history due to a combination of record high temperatures and exceptionally low precipitation. An estimate for when the drought can be expected to end is needed for risk mitigation and water management. A crucial component of drought recovery assessments is the estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) deficit. Previous studies on drought recovery have been limited to surface water hydrology (precipitation and/or runoff) for estimating changes in TWS, neglecting the contribution of groundwater deficits to the recovery time of the system. Groundwater requires more time to recover than surface water storage; therefore, the inclusion of groundwater storage in drought recovery assessments is essential for understanding the long-term vulnerability of a region. Here we assess the probability, for varying timescales, of California's current TWS deficit returning to its long-term historical mean. Our method consists of deriving the region's fluctuations in TWS from changes in the gravity field observed by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. We estimate the probability that meteorological inputs, precipitation minus evaporation and runoff, over different timespans will balance the current GRACE-derived TWS deficit (e.g. in 3, 6, 12 months). This method improves upon previous techniques as the GRACE-derived water deficit comprises all hydrologic sources, including surface water, groundwater, and snow cover. With this empirical probability assessment we expect to improve current estimates of California's drought recovery time, thereby improving risk mitigation.
Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana
Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even
Field, Richard V., Jr. (.,; .); Grigoriu, Mircea
A method is developed for reliability analysis of dynamic systems under limited information. The available information includes one or more samples of the system output; any known information on features of the output can be used if available. The method is based on the theory of non-Gaussian translation processes and is shown to be particularly suitable for problems of practical interest. For illustration, we apply the proposed method to a series of simple example problems and compare with results given by traditional statistical estimators in order to establish the accuracy of the method. It is demonstrated that the method delivers accurate results for the case of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems, and can be applied to analyze experimental data and/or mathematical model outputs. Two complex applications of direct interest to Sandia are also considered. First, we apply the proposed method to assess design reliability of a MEMS inertial switch. Second, we consider re-entry body (RB) component vibration response during normal re-entry, where the objective is to estimate the time-dependent probability of component failure. This last application is directly relevant to re-entry random vibration analysis at Sandia, and may provide insights on test-based and/or model-based qualification of weapon components for random vibration environments.
Roger S. Pulwarty
Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.
The reliability and usability of district health information software: case studies from Tanzania. ... The District Health Information System (DHIS) software from the Health Information System ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT
Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought
Getachew B. Demisse
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the instance and rules model (0.77–0.96 compared to the rules-alone model. From the experimental analysis, it was concluded that different combinations of the nearest neighbor and committee models significantly increase the performances of CART drought models. For more robust results from the developed methodology, it is recommended that future research focus on selecting relevant attributes for slow-onset drought episode identification and prediction.
Zaitchik, B. F.; Ghatak, D.; Matin, M. A.; Qamer, F. M.; Adhikary, B.; Bajracharya, B.; Nelson, J.; Pulla, S. T.; Ellenburg, W. L.
Decision-relevant drought monitoring in South Asia is a challenge from both a scientific and an institutional perspective. Scientifically, climatic diversity, inconsistent in situ monitoring, complex hydrology, and incomplete knowledge of atmospheric processes mean that monitoring and prediction are fraught with uncertainty. Institutionally, drought monitoring efforts need to align with the information needs and decision-making processes of relevant agencies at national and subnational levels. Here we present first results from an emerging operational drought monitoring and forecast system developed and supported by the NASA SERVIR Hindu-Kush Himalaya hub. The system has been designed in consultation with end users from multiple sectors in South Asian countries to maximize decision-relevant information content in the monitoring and forecast products. Monitoring of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought is accomplished using the South Asia Land Data Assimilation System, a platform that supports multiple land surface models and meteorological forcing datasets to characterize uncertainty, and subseasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasts are produced by driving South Asia LDAS with downscaled meteorological fields drawn from an ensemble of global dynamically-based forecast systems. Results are disseminated to end users through a Tethys online visualization platform and custom communications that provide user oriented, easily accessible, timely, and decision-relevant scientific information.
Victoria María Antonieta Martín Granados
Full Text Available The financial information is the document that the administration of a juridical entity issues to know his financial situation. The financial information is useful and confiable for the users of the financial information when this has been prepared under conditions of certainty. This certainty is provided by the administration when it establishes political and procedures of internal control, as well as the surveillance in the accomplishment of the internal control. This control incides in the financial information since it is inherent to the operative flow and extends itself in relevant information, veracious and comparable. This is important for users of the financial information, due to the fact that they take timely and objective decisions.
Zeff, Harrison B.; Kasprzyk, Joseph R.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.
Rising development costs and growing concerns over environmental impacts have led many communities to explore more diversified water management strategies. These "portfolio"-style approaches integrate existing supply infrastructure with other options such as conservation measures or water transfers. Diversified water supply portfolios have been shown to reduce the capacity and costs required to meet demand, while also providing greater adaptability to changing hydrologic conditions. However, this additional flexibility can also cause unexpected reductions in revenue (from conservation) or increased costs (from transfers). The resulting financial instability can act as a substantial disincentive to utilities seeking to implement more innovative water management techniques. This study seeks to design portfolios that employ financial tools (e.g., contingency funds and index insurance) to reduce fluctuations in revenues and costs, allowing these strategies to achieve improved performance without sacrificing financial stability. This analysis is applied to the development of coordinated regional supply portfolios in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina, an area comprising four rapidly growing municipalities. The actions of each independent utility become interconnected when shared infrastructure is utilized to enable interutility transfers, requiring the evaluation of regional tradeoffs in up to five performance and financial objectives. Diversified strategies introduce significant tradeoffs between achieving reliability goals and introducing burdensome variability in annual revenues and/or costs. Financial mitigation tools can mitigate the impacts of this variability, allowing for an alternative suite of improved solutions. This analysis provides a general template for utilities seeking to navigate the tradeoffs associated with more flexible, portfolio-style management approaches.
Gurusamy, Kumari Vadivel
Remotely sensed NDVI imagery was used to detect drought in developing countries in three continents. The study shows that in spite of the various limitations the NDVI data provide valuable information on drought probabilities due to their significant correlation with rainfall time series (0.4 - 0.7). NDVI data are also accessible at different resolutions (1 degree, 8 km and 1 km) at a global scale in spatiotemporally continuous form for up to 19 years enabling this study to contribute a uniform and simultaneous analysis of drought in poor developing countries. The current study is also done with due consideration to the ecosystem underlying the pixel. Special consideration for the ecosystem is achieved by holding the temporal and spatial identity intact throughout the analysis. The study uses NDVI data from 19 years for a vigorous and quick estimate, using a new method called the 'percent carrying capacity index' method which is shown to perform better than the 'vegetation condition index' method. For a few selected geographic areas, the computed image analysis results were verified against actual occurrence of drought. The image analysis results were found to be consistent with reality in those cases, validating the analysis results for areas for which drought observations have not been recorded. The final continental scale drought maps show the frequently drought-prone areas derived from uniform spatial (8km * 8km) and temporal (decadal) resolution data across three continents.
S.A. Adams (Samantha)
textabstractSince 1995, medical professionals, governments and independent organizations have been developing special tools to help lay-persons find websites that are guaranteed to give only reliable medical or health-related information. However, as these different actors also recognize, such a
Marini, Vinicius Kaster; Restrepo-Giraldo, John Dairo; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema
This paper aims to characterize the information needed to perform methods for robustness and reliability, and verify their applicability to early design stages. Several methods were evaluated on their support to synthesis in engineering design. Of those methods, FMEA, FTA and HAZOP were selected...
Fuchs, Lynn; And Others
A study was conducted to explore the reliability and validity of three prominent procedures used in informal reading inventories (IRIs): (1) choosing a 95% word recognition accuracy standard for determining student instructional level, (2) arbitrarily selecting a passage to represent the difficulty level of a basal reader, and (3) employing…
Hermanson, E.M.; Golay, M.W.
The role of human error in safety mishaps is an important factor in system design. As systems become increasingly complex the capacity of the human to deal with the added complexity is diminished. It is therefore crucial to understand the relationship between system complexity and human reliability so that systems may be built in such a way as to minimize human error. One way of understanding this relationship is to quantify system complexity and then measure the human reaction in response to situations of varying complexity. The quantification of system complexity may be performed by determining the information content present in the tasks that the human must execute. The purpose of this work is therefore to build and perform a consistent experiment which will determine the extent to which human reliability depends upon task information content. Two main conclusions may be drawn from this work. The first is that human reliability depends upon task information content. Specifically, as the information content contained in a task increases, the capacity of a human to deal successfully with the task decreases monotonically. Here the definition of total success is the ability to complete the task at hand fully and correctly. Furthermore, there exists a value of information content below which a human can deal with the task successfully, but above which the success of an individual decreases monotonically with increasing information. These ideas should be generalizable to any model where system complexity can be clearly and consistently defined
Tomlinson, J. J.; Elliott-Smith, W.; Radosta, T.
A chain of custody (COC) is required in many laboratories that handle forensics, drugs of abuse, environmental, clinical, and DNA testing, as well as other laboratories that want to assure reliability of reported results. Maintaining a dependable COC can be laborious, but with the recent establishment of the criteria for electronic records and signatures by US regulatory agencies, laboratory information management systems (LIMSs) are now being developed to fully automate COCs. The extent of automation and of data reliability can vary, and FDA- and EPA-compliant electronic signatures and system security are rare. PMID:17671623
Svoboda, Mark; Lecomte, Doug; Hayes, Mike; Heim, Richard; Gleason, Karin; Angel, Jim; Rippey, Brad; Tinker, Rich; Palecki, Mike; Stooksbury, David; Miskus, David; Stephens, Scott
information about drought and to receive regional and local input that is in turn incorporated into the product. This paper describes the Drought Monitor and the interactive process through which it is created.
Stagge, J.H.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Kohn, I.; Stahl, K.; Loon, van A.
This report presents the structure and status of the online European Drought Reference (EDR) database. This website provides detailed historical information regarding major historical European drought events. Each drought event is summarized using climatological drought indices, hydrological drought
Tomlinson, J. J.; Elliott-Smith, W.; Radosta, T.
A chain of custody (COC) is required in many laboratories that handle forensics, drugs of abuse, environmental, clinical, and DNA testing, as well as other laboratories that want to assure reliability of reported results. Maintaining a dependable COC can be laborious, but with the recent establishment of the criteria for electronic records and signatures by US regulatory agencies, laboratory information management systems (LIMSs) are now being developed to fully automate COCs. The extent of a...
Darby, L. S.; Mcnutt, C. A.; Ingram, K.; Knox, P.; Martinez, C. J.; Zierden, D.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Verdin, J. P.
From fall 2009 to fall 2010 the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Program Office coordinated several stakeholder meetings in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin, which extends from Georgia into Alabama and Florida. The purpose of the meetings was to ascertain which products and services are needed by basin stakeholders for drought early warning. Drought vulnerabilities across the basin are quite diverse - from changes in salinity that harm oyster bed productivity in Apalachicola Bay, to the health of crops in the agricultural fields of the Flint River basin, to municipal water supply issues for the city of Atlanta and smaller communities along the tributaries. These, and many other vulnerabilities, exist against a backdrop of decades-long water allocation litigation among the three states. The benefits of these stakeholder meetings went beyond information gathering by serving as opportunities for communication across state lines among people with differing needs and perspectives regarding water management decisions in the basin. The meetings also provided a good opportunity for stakeholders from all three states to share lessons learned from various management perspectives during the drought that affected the basin from 2006 to 2009. Common issues and needs identified from all regions of the basin include: (1) Education and Communication - People across the basin agree that education and communication regarding drought needs improvement (e.g., definition of drought, sector-specific impacts); (2) Improved interactions with the US Army Corps of Engineers (e.g., increased data sharing and opportunities for communication between the Corps and other stakeholders); (3) Data - easier access to real-time calibrated and quality-controlled data; (4) ACF Basin-wide webinars and climate outlooks; (5) Drought Index - Can a basin-wide drought index be established?; (6) Resolve perceived discrepancies regarding groundwater (How much
Wilhite, Donald A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Glantz, Michael H.
Severe and widespread drought occurred over a large portion of the United States between 1974 and 1977. Impacts on agriculture and other industries, as well as local water supplies, were substantial. The federal government responded with forty assistance programs administered by sixteen federal agencies. Assistance was provided primarily in the form of loans and grants to people, businesses and governments experiencing hardship caused by drought. The total cost of the program is estimated at $7-8 billion.Federal response to the mid-1970s drought was largely untimely, ineffective and poorly coordinated. Four recommendations are offered that, if implemented, would improve future drought assessment and response efforts: 1) reliable and timely informational products and dissemination plans; 2) improved impact assessment techniques, especially in the agricultural sector, for use by government to identify periods of enhanced risk and to trigger assistance measures; 3) administratively centralized drought declaration procedures that are well publicized and consistently applied; and 4) standby assistance measures that encourage appropriate levels of risk management by producers and that are equitable, consistent and predictable. The development of a national drought plan that incorporates these four items is recommended. Atmospheric scientists have an important role to play in the collection and interpretation of near-real time weather data for use by government decision makers.
Rit, J.F.; Beraud, M.T
EDF is currently developing a methodology to integrate availability, operating experience and maintenance in the design of power plants. This involves studies that depend closely on the results and assumptions of each other about the reliability and operations of the plant. Therefore a support information system must be carefully designed. Concurrently with development of the methodology, a research oriented information system was designed and built. It is based on the database model of a logistic support repository that we tailored to our needs. (K.A.) 10 refs.
Rit, J.F.; Beraud, M.T.
EDF is currently developing a methodology to integrate availability, operating experience and maintenance in the design of power plants. This involves studies that depend closely on the results and assumptions of each other about the reliability and operations of the plant. Therefore a support information system must be carefully designed. Concurrently with development of the methodology, a research oriented information system was designed and built. It is based on the database model of a logistic support repository that we tailored to our needs. (K.A.)
Bobić, Branko; Štajner, Tijana; Nikolić, Aleksandra; Klun, Ivana; Srbljanović, Jelena; Djurković-Djaković, Olgica
Health education of women of childbearing age has been shown to be an acceptable approach to the prevention of toxoplasmosis, the most frequent congenitally transmitted parasitic infection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Internet as a source of health education on toxoplasmosis in pregnancy. A group of 100 pregnant women examined in the National Reference Laboratory for Toxoplasmosis was surveyed by a questionnaire on the source of their information on toxoplasmosis. We also analyzed information offered by websites in the Serbian and Croatian languages through the Google search engine, using "toxoplasmosis" as a keyword. The 23 top websites were evaluated for comprehensiveness and accuracy of information on the impact of toxoplasmosis on the course of pregnancy, diagnosis and prevention. Having knowledge on toxoplasmosis was confirmed by 64 (64.0%) examined women, 40.6% (26/64) of whom learned about toxoplasmosis through the Internet, 48.4% from physicians, and 10.9% from friends. Increase in the degree of education was found to be associated with the probability that pregnant women would be informed via the Internet (RR=3.15, 95% CI=1.27-7.82, p=0.013). Analysis of four interactive websites (allowing users to ask questions) showed that routes of infection were the most common concern, particularly the risk presented by pet cats and dogs, followed by the diagnosis of infection (who and when should be tested, and how should the results be interpreted). Of 20 sites containing educational articles, only seven were authorized and two listed sources. Evaluation confirmed that information relevant to pregnant women was significantly more accurate than comprehensive, but no site gave both comprehensive and completely accurate information. Only four sites (20%) were good sources of information for pregnant women. Internet has proved itself as an important source of information. However, despite numerous websites, only a few offer reliable information to the
Iran faces widespread droughts regularly, causing large economical and social damages. The agricultural sector is with 80-90 % by far the largest user of water in Iran and is often the first sector to be affected by drought. Unfortunately, water management in agriculture is also rather poor and
Marini, Vinicius Kaster
methods, and an industrial case to assess how the use of information about robustness, reliability and safety as practised by current methods influences concept development. Current methods cannot be used in early design phases due to their dependence on detailed design information for the identification...... alternatives. This prompts designers to reuse working principles that are inherently flawed, as they are liable to disturbances, failures and hazards. To address this issue, an approach based upon individual records of early design issues consists of comparing failures and benefits from prior working...... principles, before making a decision, and improving the more suitable alternatives through this feedback. Workshops were conducted with design practitioners to evaluate the potential of the approach and to simulate decision-making and gain feedback on a proof-of-concept basis. The evaluation has demonstrated...
Boczkowski, Lucas; Natale, Emanuele; Feinerman, Ofer; Korman, Amos
Biological systems can share and collectively process information to yield emergent effects, despite inherent noise in communication. While man-made systems often employ intricate structural solutions to overcome noise, the structure of many biological systems is more amorphous. It is not well understood how communication noise may affect the computational repertoire of such groups. To approach this question we consider the basic collective task of rumor spreading, in which information from few knowledgeable sources must reliably flow into the rest of the population. We study the effect of communication noise on the ability of groups that lack stable structures to efficiently solve this task. We present an impossibility result which strongly restricts reliable rumor spreading in such groups. Namely, we prove that, in the presence of even moderate levels of noise that affect all facets of the communication, no scheme can significantly outperform the trivial one in which agents have to wait until directly interacting with the sources-a process which requires linear time in the population size. Our results imply that in order to achieve efficient rumor spread a system must exhibit either some degree of structural stability or, alternatively, some facet of the communication which is immune to noise. We then corroborate this claim by providing new analyses of experimental data regarding recruitment in Cataglyphis niger desert ants. Finally, in light of our theoretical results, we discuss strategies to overcome noise in other biological systems.
Ziese, Markus; Fröhlich, Kristina; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas
Droughts are naturally occurring phenomena which are caused by a shortage of available water due to lower than normal precipitation and/or above normal evaporation. Depending on the length of the droughts, several sectors are affected starting with agriculture, then river and ground water levels and finally socio-economic losses at the long end of the spectrum of drought persistence. Droughts are extreme events that affect much larger areas and last much longer than floods, but are less geared towards media than floods being more short-scale in persistence and impacts. Finally the slow onset of droughts make the detection and early warning of their beginning difficult and time is lost for preparatory measures. Drought indices are developed to detect and classify droughts based on (meteorological) observations and possible additional information tailored to specific user needs, e.g. in agriculture, hydrology and other sectors. Not all drought indices can be utilized for global applications as not all input parameters are available at this scale. Therefore the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) developed a drought index as combination of the Standardized Drought Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the GPCC-DI. The GPCC-DI is applied to drought monitoring and retrospective analyses on a global scale. As the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a seasonal forecast system in cooperation with Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg and University of Hamburg, these data are also used for an outlook of drought conditions by means of the GPCC-DI. The reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts is limited, so the drought outlook is available only for forecast months two to four. Based on the GPCC-DI, DWD provides a retrospective analysis, near-real-time monitoring and outlook of drought conditions on a global scale and regular basis.
Condon, David; Revelle, William
Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.
In the statistical literature many methods have been presented to deal with censored observations, both within the Bayesian and non-Bayesian frameworks, and such methods have been successfully applied to, e.g., reliability problems. Also, in reliability theory it is often emphasized that, through shortage of statistical data and possibilities for experiments, one often needs to rely heavily on judgements of engineers, or other experts, for which means Bayesian methods are attractive. It is therefore important that such judgements can be elicited easily to provide informative prior distributions that reflect the knowledge of the engineers well. In this paper we focus on this aspect, especially on the situation that the judgements of the consulted engineers are based on experiences in environments where censoring has also been present previously. We suggest the use of the attractive interpretation of hyperparameters of conjugate prior distributions when these are available for assumed parametric models for lifetimes, and we show how one may go beyond the standard conjugate priors, using similar interpretations of hyper-parameters, to enable easier elicitation when censoring has been present in the past. This may even lead to more flexibility for modelling prior knowledge than when using standard conjugate priors, whereas the disadvantage of more complicated calculations that may be needed to determine posterior distributions play a minor role due to the advanced mathematical and statistical software that is widely available these days
Hadwen, T.; Heim, R. R.; Howard, A.
Drought is a difficult phenomenon to define; the way in which it is monitored, measured, assessed and even the very definition of drought vary from location to location based on the regional climate and the potential impacts. Drought is not an absolute condition but an evolving state brought on by relatively dry weather, growing more severe over time. There are many factors that define a drought and many more that define its impacts. Many definitions and indices are based solely on meteorological characteristics. Although this approach has merit, it is often necessary to go further to define those meteorological conditions in a way that is relevant to the land and water use in a region. A Drought Indices and Definitions Study was initiated in 2010 as part of a GEO Bilateral effort to examine drought across the U.S. and Canada. The Study's deliverables will include a survey of the drought indices used to monitor drought, and a bibliography of research addressing the nature of drought, across the diverse climates of the continent. With an increasing pressure to utilize drought monitoring as a primary indicator of need for disaster assistance, the reliability of drought indices must be validated and utilized in appropriate in various regions. In 2009, following over five years of participation in the North American Drought Monitor (NA-DM), the National Agroclimate Information Service of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada initiated a project to develop a Canadian Drought Monitor (Can-DM), based on primary principles used in the NA-DM and the US Drought Monitor (US-DM). The process of developing an operational monitoring tool and using drought indices in a vast and environmentally diverse country has been challenging. in Canada, many of the commonly used indices are not appropriate in certain regions or data densities do not allow for proper use. This paper will discuss the experiences that the Can-DM team has had dealing with these challenges, how these experiences
Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza; Hazbavi, Zeinab
Quantitative response of the watershed health to climate variability is of critical importance for watershed managers. However, existing studies seldom considered the impact of climate variability on watershed health. The present study therefore aimed to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of reliability (R el ), resilience (R es ) and vulnerability (V ul ) indicators in node years of 1986, 1998, 2008 and 2014 in connection with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for 24 sub-watersheds in the Shazand Watershed of Markazi Province in Iran. The analysis was based on rainfall variability as one of the main climatic drivers. To achieve the study purposes, the monthly rainfall time series of eight rain gauge stations distributed across the watershed or neighboring areas were analyzed and corresponding SPIs and R el R es V ul indicators were calculated. Ultimately, the spatial variation of SPI oriented R el R es V ul was mapped for the study watershed using Geographic Information System (GIS). The average and standard deviation of SPI-R el R es V ul index for the study years of 1986, 1998, 2008 and 2014 was obtained 0.240±0.025, 0.290±0.036, 0.077±0.0280 and 0.241±0.081, respectively. In overall, the results of the study proved the spatiotemporal variations of SPI-R el R es V ul watershed health index in the study area. Accordingly, all the sub-watersheds of the Shazand Watershed were grouped in unhealthy and very unhealthy conditions in all the study years. For 1986 and 1998 all the sub-watersheds were assessed in unhealthy status. Whilst, it declined to very unhealthy condition in 2008 and then some 75% of the watershed ultimately referred again to unhealthy and the rest still remained under very unhealthy conditions in 2014. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
McDowell, B.D.; Blomquist, W.
Nothing frustrates the average drought planner more than politics. Yet, droughts cannot be prepared for realistically without reliable political partners, smoothly cooperating government agencies, and strong public support. This paper suggests six rules for linking technical drought planning processes to the political processes and institutions that can implement drought plans
Kolesa, K.; Vejvodova, I.
In the year 1981 the reliability information system for nuclear power plants (ISS-JE) was established. The objective of the system is to make a statistical evaluation of the operation of nuclear power plants and to obtain information on the reliability of the equipment of nuclear power plants and the transmission of this information to manufacturers with the aim of inducing them to take corrective measures. The HP 1000 computer with the data base system IMAGE 100 is used which allows to process single queries and periodical outputs. The content of periodical outputs designed for various groups of subcontractors is briefly described and trends of the further development of the system indicated. (Ha)
Kurnosov, R. Yu; Chernyshova, T. I.; Chernyshov, V. N.
The algorithms for improving the metrological reliability of analogue blocks of measuring channels and information-measuring systems are developed. The proposed algorithms ensure the optimum values of their metrological reliability indices for a given analogue circuit block solution.
Sreekumaran Unnithan, P.; Mondal, A.
Droughts are one of the most important natural hazards that affect the society significantly in terms of mortality and productivity. The metric that is most widely used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to monitor and predict the occurrence, spread, intensification and termination of drought is based on the univariate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). However, droughts may be caused by the influence and interaction of many variables (such as precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, etc.), emphasizing the need for a multivariate approach for drought characterization. This study advocates and illustrates use of the recently proposed multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) in monitoring and prediction of drought and assessing its concerned risk in the Indian region. MSDI combines information from multiple sources: precipitation and soil moisture, and has been deemed to be a more reliable drought index. All-India monthly rainfall and soil moisture data sets are analysed for the period 1980 to 2014 to characterize historical droughts using both the univariate indices, the precipitation-based SPI and the standardized soil moisture index (SSI), as well as the multivariate MSDI using parametric and non-parametric approaches. We confirm that MSDI can capture droughts of 1986 and 1990 that aren't detected by using SPI alone. Moreover, in 1987, MSDI indicated a higher severity of drought when a deficiency in both soil moisture and precipitation was encountered. Further, this study also explores the use of MSDI for drought forecasts and assesses its performance vis-à-vis existing predictions from the IMD. Future research efforts will be directed towards formulating a more robust standardized drought indicator that can take into account socio-economic aspects that also play a key role for water-stressed regions such as India.
John W. Coulston
Why Is Drought Important? Drought is an important forest disturbance that occurs regularly in the Western United States and irregularly in the Eastern United States (Dale and others 2001). Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severedrought stress can also reduce photosynthesis (Kareiva and others 1993). Drought can also interact with...
Tobgay, Sonam; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Prasad, Ramjee
This paper examines the effect of different information access strategies on power consumption and information reliability, considering the wireless sensor network as the source of information. Basically, the paper explores three different access strategies, namely; reactive, periodic and hybrid...
Kielman, Ross; Whitehouse, Martin; Nemchin, Alexander
Studies combining zircon U-Pb chronology, trace element distribution as well as O and Hf isotope systematics are a powerful way to gain understanding of the processes shaping Earth's evolution, especially in detrital populations where constraints from the original host are missing. Such studies of the Hadean detrital zircon population abundant in sedimentary rocks in Western Australia have involved analysis of an unusually large number of individual grains, but also highlighted potential problems with the approach, only apparent when multiple analyses are obtained from individual grains. A common feature of the Hadean as well as many early Archaean zircon populations is their apparent inhomogeneity, which reduces confidence in conclusions based on studies combining chemistry and isotopic characteristics of zircon. In order to test the reliability of information extracted from early Earth zircon, we report results from one of the first in-depth multi-method study of zircon from a relatively simple early Archean magmatic rock, used as an analogue to ancient detrital zircon. The approach involves making multiple SIMS analyses in individual grains in order to be comparable to the most advanced studies of detrital zircon populations. The investigated sample is a relatively undeformed, non-migmatitic ca. 3.8 Ga tonalite collected a few kms south of the Isua Greenstone Belt, southwest Greenland. Extracted zircon grains can be combined into three different groups based on the behavior of their U-Pb systems: (i) grains that show internally consistent and concordant ages and define an average age of 3805±15 Ma, taken to be the age of the rock, (ii) grains that are distributed close to the concordia line, but with significant variability between multiple analyses, suggesting an ancient Pb loss and (iii) grains that have multiple analyses distributed along a discordia pointing towards a zero intercept, indicating geologically recent Pb-loss. This overall behavior has
"System reliability, availability and robustness are often not well understood by system architects, engineers and developers. They often don't understand what drives customer's availability expectations, how to frame verifiable availability/robustness requirements, how to manage and budget availability/robustness, how to methodically architect and design systems that meet robustness requirements, and so on. The book takes a very pragmatic approach of framing reliability and robustness as a functional aspect of a system so that architects, designers, developers and testers can address it as a concrete, functional attribute of a system, rather than an abstract, non-functional notion"--Provided by publisher.
This document provides a technical report of operability, reliability, and maintenance of a plasma melter for low-level waste vitrification, in support of the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Vitrification Program. A process description is provided that minimizes maintenance and downtime and includes material and energy balances, equipment sizes and arrangement, startup/operation/maintence/shutdown cycle descriptions, and basis for scale-up to a 200 metric ton/day production facility. Operational requirements are provided including utilities, feeds, labor, and maintenance. Equipment reliability estimates and maintenance requirements are provided which includes a list of failure modes, responses, and consequences
Vsevolod Ozirisovich Chukanov
Full Text Available Methods of the combined reservation are considered. The models of reliability of systems considering parameters of restoration and prevention of blocks of system are described. Ratios for average quantity prevention and an availability quotient of blocks of system are given.
... the intent of a website to publish transparent information. The transparency of the website will improve the usefulness and objectivity of the information and the publishment of correct data. The HONcode ...
A. V. Mamaev
Full Text Available The problem of protection from deliberate leaks of information is one of the most difficult. Integrated systems of information protection against insider have a serious drawback. Using this disadvantage the offender receives the possibility of unauthorized theft of information from working machine.
Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen
Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction
He, Z J; Zhang, X L; Chen, X F
Aiming at reliability evaluation of condition identification of mechanical equipment, it is necessary to analyze condition monitoring information. A new method of reliability evaluation based on wavelet information entropy extracted from vibration signals of mechanical equipment is proposed. The method is quite different from traditional reliability evaluation models that are dependent on probability statistics analysis of large number sample data. The vibration signals of mechanical equipment were analyzed by means of second generation wavelet package (SGWP). We take relative energy in each frequency band of decomposed signal that equals a percentage of the whole signal energy as probability. Normalized information entropy (IE) is obtained based on the relative energy to describe uncertainty of a system instead of probability. The reliability degree is transformed by the normalized wavelet information entropy. A successful application has been achieved to evaluate the assembled quality reliability for a kind of dismountable disk-drum aero-engine. The reliability degree indicates the assembled quality satisfactorily.
AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid
Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally
Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun
It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.
Conclusion: According to our results, the websites intended to attract patients searching for information regarding femoroacetabular impingement are providing a highly accessible, readable information source, but do not appear to apply a comparable amount of rigor to scientific literature or healthcare practitioner websites in regard to matters such as citing sources for information, supplying methodology and including a publication date. This indicates that while these resources are easily accessed by patients, there is potential for them to be a source of misinformation.
Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.
By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal
Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.
Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, ecosystems, agricultural production, critical infrastructure, energy costs, human health, and local economies (Milly and others, 2005; Wihlite, 2005; Vörösmarty and others, 2010; Choat and others, 2012; Ledger and others, 2013). As global temperatures continue to increase, the frequency, severity, extent, and duration of droughts are expected to increase across North America, affecting both humans and natural ecosystems (Parry and others, 2007).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long, proven history of delivering science and tools to help decision-makers manage and mitigate effects of drought. That said, there is substantial capacity for improved integration and coordination in the ways that the USGS provides drought science. A USGS Drought Team was formed in August 2016 to work across USGS Mission Areas to identify current USGS drought-related research and core capabilities. This information has been used to initiate the development of an integrated science effort that will bring the full USGS capacity to bear on this national crisis.
Nishihara, Takuo; Tomita, Seiji
In this paper, we propose a system configuration suitable for the hard realtime systems in which integrity and durability of information are important. On most hard real-time systems, where response time constraints are critical, the data which program access are volatile, and may be lost in case the systems are down. But for some real-time systems, the value-added intelligent network (IN) systems, e.g., integrity and durability of the stored data are very important. We propose a distributed system configuration for such hard real-time systems, comprised of service control modules and data management modules. The service control modules process transactions and responses based on deadline control, and the data management modules deal the stored data based on information recovery schemes well-restablished in fault real-time systems. (author)
Why a book on fault-tolerant search algorithms? Searching is one of the fundamental problems in computer science. Time and again algorithmic and combinatorial issues originally studied in the context of search find application in the most diverse areas of computer science and discrete mathematics. On the other hand, fault-tolerance is a necessary ingredient of computing. Due to their inherent complexity, information systems are naturally prone to errors, which may appear at any level - as imprecisions in the data, bugs in the software, or transient or permanent hardware failures. This book pr
Livneh, B.; Badger, A.; Lukas, J.; Dilling, L.; Page, R.
Drought conditions over the past two decades have arisen during a time of increasing water demands in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The Basin's highly allocated and diverse water systems raise the question of how drought-based information, such as snowpack, streamflow, and reservoir conditions, can be used to inform drought risk management. Like most of the western U.S., snow-water equivalent (SWE) at key dates during the year (e.g., April 1) is routinely used in water resource planning because it is often the highest observed value during the season and it embodies stored water to be released, through melt, during critical periods later in the summer. This presentation will first focus on how water managers on Colorado's Western Slope (a) perceive drought-related risk, (b) use and access drought information, and (c) respond to drought. Preliminary findings will be presented from in-person interviews, document analysis, observations of planning meetings, and other interactions with seven water-management entities across the Western Slope. The second part of the presentation will focus on how the predictive power of snowpack-based drought indicators—identified as the most useful and reliable drought indicator by regional water stakeholders—are expected change in a warmer world, i.e. where expectations are for more rain versus snow, smaller snowpacks, and earlier snowmelt and peak runoff. We will present results from hydrologic simulations using climate projection to examine how a warming climate will affect the robustness of these snowpack-based drought indicators by mid-century.
Nicolis, J S
Brain-like structures have evolved by performing signal processing initially by minimizing tracking errors on a competitive basis. Such systems are highly complex and at the same time notoriously disordered. The functional trace of the cerebral cortex of the human brain is a good example. The electroencephalogram (EEG) appears particularly fragmented during the execution of mental tasks, as well as during the recurrent episodes of rem sleep. A stochastically regular or a highly synchronized EEG on the other hand, characterises a drowsy (relaxing) or epileptic subject respectively and indicates-in both cases-a very incompetent information processor. The author suggests that such behavioral changeovers are produced via bifurcations which trigger the thalamocortical nonlinear pacemaking oscillator to switch from an unstable limit cycle to a strange attractor regime (i.e. to chaos), or vice versa. This analysis aims to show that the EEGs characteristics are not accidental but inevitable and even necessary and, therefore, functionally significant. 25 references.
Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.
Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble
Travel time reliability information includes static data about traffic speeds or trip times that capture historic variations from day to day, and it can help individuals understand the level of variation in traffic. Unlike real-time travel time infor...
Rehme, Silke; Eck, Sabrina; Mutschelknauss, Michael
other European input centers, has contributed to the comprehensiveness of the INIS database. The INIS Working Groups, dealing with topics related to the database and it’s scientific, technical, and strategic enhancements, allow members the most direct influence on INIS developments. From the very start, Germany has been an active member of the Working Group establishing the Guidelines for Standardized Entry of Corporate Bodies, published under this title as Issue 21 of the INIS Reference Series. Among others, FIZ Karlsruhe was also a committed member of the Working Group responsible for merging the thesaurus and the classification of the two information systems, INIS and ETDE, and contributed to the realization of the Multilingual Thesaurus
Full Text Available The Human Aspects of Information Security Questionnaire (HAIS-Q is designed to measure Information Security Awareness. More specifically, the tool measures an individual’s knowledge, attitude, and self-reported behaviour relating to information security in the workplace. This paper reports on the reliability of the HAIS-Q, including test-retest reliability and internal consistency. The paper also assesses the reliability of three preliminary over-claiming items, designed specifically to complement the HAIS-Q, and identify those individuals who provide socially desirable responses. A total of 197 working Australians completed two iterations of the HAIS-Q and the over-claiming items, approximately 4 weeks apart. Results of the analysis showed that the HAIS-Q was externally reliable and internally consistent. Therefore, the HAIS-Q can be used to reliably measure information security awareness. Reliability testing on the preliminary over-claiming items was not as robust and further development is required and recommended. The implications of these findings mean that organisations can confidently use the HAIS-Q to not only measure the current state of employee information security awareness within their organisation, but they can also measure the effectiveness and impacts of training interventions, information security awareness programs and campaigns. The influence of cultural changes and the effect of security incidents can also be assessed.
Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.
The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.
Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.
AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid
Reliable drought monitoring requires long-term and continuous precipitation data. High resolution satellite measurements provide valuable precipitation information on a quasi-global scale. However, their short lengths of records limit their applications in drought monitoring. In addition to this limitation, long-term low resolution satellite-based gauge-adjusted data sets such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) one are not available in near real-time form for timely drought monitoring. This study bridges the gap between low resolution long-term satellite gauge-adjusted data and the emerging high resolution satellite precipitation data sets to create a long-term climate data record of droughts. To accomplish this, a Bayesian correction algorithm is used to combine GPCP data with real-time satellite precipitation data sets for drought monitoring and analysis. The results showed that the combined data sets after the Bayesian correction were a significant improvement compared to the uncorrected data. Furthermore, several recent major droughts such as the 2011 Texas, 2010 Amazon and 2010 Horn of Africa droughts were detected in the combined real-time and long-term satellite observations. This highlights the potential application of satellite precipitation data for regional to global drought monitoring. The final product is a real-time data-driven satellite-based standardized precipitation index that can be used for drought monitoring especially over remote and/or ungauged regions. (letter)
De Martino, Benedetto; Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian; Nouguchi, Takao; Sharot, Tali; Love, Bradley C
How much we like something, whether it be a bottle of wine or a new film, is affected by the opinions of others. However, the social information that we receive can be contradictory and vary in its reliability. Here, we tested whether the brain incorporates these statistics when judging value and confidence. Participants provided value judgments about consumer goods in the presence of online reviews. We found that participants updated their initial value and confidence judgments in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account both the uncertainty of their initial beliefs and the reliability of the social information. Activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of belief update. Analogous to how lower-level perceptual information is integrated, we found that the human brain integrates social information according to its reliability when judging value and confidence. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The field of perceptual decision making has shown that the sensory system integrates different sources of information according to their respective reliability, as predicted by a Bayesian inference scheme. In this work, we hypothesized that a similar coding scheme is implemented by the human brain to process social signals and guide complex, value-based decisions. We provide experimental evidence that the human prefrontal cortex's activity is consistent with a Bayesian computation that integrates social information that differs in reliability and that this integration affects the neural representation of value and confidence. Copyright © 2017 De Martino et al.
Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.
In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.
Nasution, M. K. M.; Sitompul, Darwin; Harahap, Marwan
Today almost all machines depend on the software. As a software and hardware system depends also on the rules that are the procedures for its use. If the procedure or program can be reliably characterized by involving the concept of graph, logic, and probability, then regulatory strength can also be measured accordingly. Therefore, this paper initiates an enumeration model to measure the reliability of interfaces based on the case of information systems supported by the rules of use by the relevant agencies. An enumeration model is obtained based on software reliability calculation.
Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia
The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining
McDaniels, T.; Steyn, D. G.; Johnson, M. S.; Small, M.; Leclerc, G.; Vignola, R.; Chan, K.; Grossmann, I.; Wong-Parodi, G.
Improving resilience to drought in complex social-environmental systems (SES) is extraordinarily important, particularly for rural tropical locations where small changes in climate regimes can have dramatic SES impacts. Efforts to build drought resilience must necessarily be planned and implemented within SES governance systems that involve linkages in water and land use administration from local to national levels. These efforts require knowledge and understanding that links climate and weather forecasts to regional and local hydrology, to social-economic and environmental systems, and to governance processes. In order to provide structure for such complex choices and investments, we argue that a focus on structured decision processes that involve linkages among science, technological perspectives, and public values conducted with agencies and stakeholders will provide a crucial framework for comparing and building insight for pursuing alternative courses of action to build drought resilience. This paper focuses on a regional case study in the seasonally-dry northwest region of Costa Rica, in watersheds rated as most threatened in the country in terms of drought. We present the overall framework guiding the transdisciplinary efforts to link scientific and technical understanding to public values, in order to foster civil society actions that lead to improved drought resilience. Initial efforts to characterize hydrological and climate regimes will be reported along with our approach to linking natural science findings, social inventories in terms of perspectives on SES, and the psychology and patterns of reliance on forecast information that provide the basis for characterizing public understanding. The overall linkage of technical and value information is focused on creating and comparing alternative actions that can potentially build resilience in short and long time frames by building decision making processes involving stakeholders, agencies and interested
Full Text Available The work describes the impact the reliability of the information quality IQ for information and communication systems. One of the components of IQ is the reliability properties such as relativity, accuracy, timeliness, completeness, consistency, adequacy, accessibility, credibility, congruence. Each of these components of IQ is independent and to properly estimate the value of IQ, use one of the methods of modeling uncertainty. In this article, we used a hybrid method that has been developed jointly by one of the authors. This method is based on the mathematical theory of evidence know as Dempstera-Shafera (DS theory and serial links of dependent hybrid named IQ (hyb.
Melnik, E. V.; Klimenko, A. B.; Ivanov, D. Ya
The paper focuses on the information and control system reliability issue. Authors of the current paper propose a new complex approach of information and control system reliability enhancement by application of the computing concept elements. The approach proposed consists of a complex of optimization problems to be solved. These problems are: estimation of computational complexity, which can be shifted to the edge of the network and fog-layer, distribution of computations among the data processing elements and distribution of computations among the sensors. The problems as well as some simulated results and discussion are formulated and presented within this paper.
Full Text Available Drought management frameworks are dependent on methods for monitoring and prediction, but quantifying the hazard alone is arguably not sufficient; the negative consequences that may arise from a lack of precipitation must also be predicted if droughts are to be better managed. However, the link between drought intensity, expressed by some hydrometeorological indicator, and the occurrence of drought impacts has only recently begun to be addressed. One challenge is the paucity of information on ecological and socioeconomic consequences of drought. This study tests the potential for developing empirical drought impact functions based on drought indicators (Standardized Precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index as predictors and text-based reports on drought impacts as a surrogate variable for drought damage. While there have been studies exploiting textual evidence of drought impacts, a systematic assessment of the effect of impact quantification method and different functional relationships for modeling drought impacts is missing. Using Southeast England as a case study we tested the potential of three different data-driven models for predicting drought impacts quantified from text-based reports: logistic regression, zero-altered negative binomial regression (hurdle model, and an ensemble regression tree approach (random forest. The logistic regression model can only be applied to a binary impact/no impact time series, whereas the other two models can additionally predict the full counts of impact occurrence at each time point. While modeling binary data results in the lowest prediction uncertainty, modeling the full counts has the advantage of also providing a measure of impact severity, and the counts were found to be reasonably predictable. However, there were noticeable differences in skill between modeling methodologies. For binary data the logistic regression and the random forest model performed similarly well based on
Melnikova Ekaterina Aleksandrovna
Full Text Available The article clarifies the meaning of the terms accuracy and reliability of the news story, offers a researcher's approach to obtaining objective data that helps to verify linguistic means of accuracy and reliability presence in the informative structure of the text. The accuracy of the news story is defined as a high relevance degree of event reflection through language representation of its constituents; the reliability is viewed as news story originality that is proved by introducing citations and sources of information considered being trustworthy into the text content. Having based the research on an event nominative density identification method, the author composed nominative charts of 115 news story texts, collected at web-sites of BBC and CNN media corporations; distinguished qualitative and quantitative markers of accuracy and reliability in the news story text; confirmed that the accuracy of the news story is achieved with terminological clearness in nominating event constituents in the text, thematic bind between words, presence of onyms that help deeply identify characteristics of the referent event. The reliability of the text is discovered in eyewitness accounts, quotations, and references to the sources being considered as trustworthy. Accurate revision of associations between accuracy and reliability and informing strategies in digital news nets allowed the author to set two variants of information delivery, that differ in their communicative and pragmatic functions: developing (that informs about major and minor details of an event and truncated (which gives some details thus raising the interest to the event and urging a reader to open a full story.
Hund, S. V.; Johnson, M. S.; Morillas, L.; McDaniels, T.; Romero Valpreda, J.; Allen, D. M.
Climate variability and seasonal droughts associated with ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and increasing water demand due to growing population are leading to serious water conflicts in the wet-dry tropics of Central America. Integrated methods are needed to understand the linkages of these complex socio-hydrological systems and design reliable adaption strategies in a period of global change. With increasing pressure on surface and groundwater resources during long annual dry seasons, rural agricultural communities suffer water shortages, especially in those years preceded by wet seasons with lower rainfall (and reduced groundwater recharge). To support community resilience to rainfall variability and droughts, we conducted a combination of fieldwork (development of hydrologic monitoring system and local stakeholder cooperation), and hydrological modeling for two watersheds with a shared aquifer (Potrero and Caimital) in Northwestern Costa Rica. The agricultural land use of the region and the many rural villages that draw directly on their local water resource and live in close interaction with their watersheds necessitated a socio-hydrological systems approach. In this talk we present results from our hydrologic modeling, for which we used the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model and locally recorded data. With the integrated water supply and demand features of the WEAP model, we were able to synthesize both the hydrological system and the societal system (specifically, household and agricultural water use), and show feedbacks such as that water use tends to increase during the dry season, likely exacerbating water shortages issues. Further, applying a range of ENSO related rainfall scenarios to the model demonstrated that community adaptation will become in particular important in response to lower water availability in future El Niño years. In collaboration with local stakeholders, we identified a set of feasible adaptation strategies to seasonal
Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.
Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put
Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi
Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.
The study aims to evaluate various remote sensing drought indices to assess those most fitting for monitoring agricultural drought. The objectives are (1) to assess and study the impact of drought effect on (corn and soybean) crop production by crop mapping information and GIS technology; (2) to use Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) as a technical approach to evaluate the spatial relationships between precipitation vs. irrigated and non-irrigated corn and soybean yield, using a Nebraska county-level case study; (3) to assess agricultural drought indices derived from remote sensing (NDVI, NMDI, NDWI, and NDII6); (4) to develop an optimal approach for agricultural drought detection based on remote sensing measurements to determine the relationship between US county-level yields versus relatively common variables collected. Extreme drought creates low corn and soybean production where irrigation systems are not implemented. This results in a lack of moisture in soil leading to dry land and stale crop yields. When precipitation and moisture is found across all states, corn and soybean production flourishes. For Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota, irrigation management methods assist in strong crop yields throughout SPI monthly averages. The data gathered on irrigation consisted of using drought indices gathered by the national agricultural statistics service website. For the SPI levels ranging between one-month and nine-months, Kansas and Nebraska performed the best out of all 12-states contained in the Midwestern primary Corn and Soybean Belt. The reasoning behind Kansas and Nebraska's results was due to a more efficient and sustainable irrigation system, where upon South Dakota lacked. South Dakota was leveled by strong correlations throughout all SPI periods for corn only. Kansas showed its strongest correlations for the two-month and three-month averages, for both corn and soybean. Precipitation regression with irrigated and non-irrigated maize (corn) and
Durkin, Kelley; Shafto, Patrick
The epistemic trust literature emphasizes that children's evaluations of informants' trustworthiness affects learning, but there is no evidence that epistemic trust affects learning in academic domains. The current study investigated how reliability affects decimal learning. Fourth and fifth graders (N = 122; M[subscript age] = 10.1 years)…
Irina P. Kurochkina
Full Text Available The article explores the possibility of using foreign innovative methods to assess the reliabilityof information consolidated ﬁ nancial statements of Russian companies. Recommendations aremade under their adaptation and applicationinto commercial organizations. Banish methodindicators are implemented in one of the world’s largest vertically integrated steel and miningcompanies. Audit ﬁrms are proposed to usemethods of assessing the reliability of information in the practical application of ISA.
Zaniolo, Marta; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea
moisture deficit in the root zone computed by a distributed-parameter water balance model of the agricultural districts is used as target variable. Numerical results show that our framework succeeds in constructing a combined drought index that reproduces the soil moisture deficit. Moreover, this index represents a valuable information for supporting appropriate drought management strategies, including the possibility of directly informing the lake operations about the drought conditions and improve the overall reliability of the irrigation supply system.
Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...
Melnik, E. V.; Klimenko, A. B.; Ivanov, D. Ya
This paper focuses on the reliability issue of information and control systems (ICS). The authors propose using the elements of the fog-computing concept to enhance the reliability function. The key idea of fog-computing is to shift computations to the fog-layer of the network, and thus to decrease the workload of the communication environment and data processing components. As for ICS, workload also can be distributed among sensors, actuators and network infrastructure facilities near the sources of data. The authors simulated typical workload distribution situations for the “traditional” ICS architecture and for the one with fogcomputing concept elements usage. The paper contains some models, selected simulation results and conclusion about the prospects of the fog-computing as a means to enhance ICS reliability.
O’CONNOR, MELISSA; DAVITT, JOAN K.
The Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) is the patient-specific, standardized assessment used in Medicare home health care to plan care, determine reimbursement, and measure quality. Since its inception in 1999, there has been debate over the reliability and validity of the OASIS as a research tool and outcome measure. A systematic literature review of English-language articles identified 12 studies published in the last 10 years examining the validity and reliability of the OASIS. Empirical findings indicate the validity and reliability of the OASIS range from low to moderate but vary depending on the item studied. Limitations in the existing research include: nonrepresentative samples; inconsistencies in methods used, items tested, measurement, and statistical procedures; and the changes to the OASIS itself over time. The inconsistencies suggest that these results are tentative at best; additional research is needed to confirm the value of the OASIS for measuring patient outcomes, research, and quality improvement. PMID:23216513
Wang, Lizhi; Pan, Rong; Li, Xiaoyang; Jiang, Tongmin
Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is a common approach in reliability prediction, especially for products with high reliability. However, oftentimes the laboratory condition of ADT is different from the field condition; thus, to predict field failure, one need to calibrate the prediction made by using ADT data. In this paper a Bayesian evaluation method is proposed to integrate the ADT data from laboratory with the failure data from field. Calibration factors are introduced to calibrate the difference between the lab and the field conditions so as to predict a product's actual field reliability more accurately. The information fusion and statistical inference procedure are carried out through a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is demonstrated by two examples and the sensitivity analysis to prior distribution assumption
Samimi, Parnia; Ravana, Sri Devi
Test collection is used to evaluate the information retrieval systems in laboratory-based evaluation experimentation. In a classic setting, generating relevance judgments involves human assessors and is a costly and time consuming task. Researchers and practitioners are still being challenged in performing reliable and low-cost evaluation of retrieval systems. Crowdsourcing as a novel method of data acquisition is broadly used in many research fields. It has been proven that crowdsourcing is an inexpensive and quick solution as well as a reliable alternative for creating relevance judgments. One of the crowdsourcing applications in IR is to judge relevancy of query document pair. In order to have a successful crowdsourcing experiment, the relevance judgment tasks should be designed precisely to emphasize quality control. This paper is intended to explore different factors that have an influence on the accuracy of relevance judgments accomplished by workers and how to intensify the reliability of judgments in crowdsourcing experiment.
Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington
Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to
This paper addresses the problem of estimating the reliability of a critical system function as well as its impact on the system reliability when limited information is available. The approach addresses the basic function reliability, and then the impact of multiple attempts to accomplish the function. The dependence of subsequent attempts on prior failure to accomplish the function is also addressed. The autonomous docking of two spacecraft was the specific example that generated the inquiry, and the resultant impact on total reliability generated substantial interest in presenting the results due to the relative insensitivity of overall performance to basic function reliability and moderate degradation given sufficient attempts to try and accomplish the required goal. The application of the methodology allows proper emphasis on the characteristics that can be estimated with some knowledge, and to insulate the integrity of the design from those characteristics that can't be properly estimated with any rational value of uncertainty. The nature of NASA's missions contains a great deal of uncertainty due to the pursuit of new science or operations. This approach can be applied to any function where multiple attempts at success, with or without degradation, are allowed.
Kosteniuk, Julie G; Morgan, Debra G; D'Arcy, Carl K
The research determined (1) the information sources that family physicians (FPs) most commonly use to update their general medical knowledge and to make specific clinical decisions, and (2) the information sources FPs found to be most physically accessible, intellectually accessible (easy to understand), reliable (trustworthy), and relevant to their needs. A cross-sectional postal survey of 792 FPs and locum tenens, in full-time or part-time medical practice, currently practicing or on leave of absence in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan was conducted during the period of January to April 2008. Of 666 eligible physicians, 331 completed and returned surveys, resulting in a response rate of 49.7% (331/666). Medical textbooks and colleagues in the main patient care setting were the top 2 sources for the purpose of making specific clinical decisions. Medical textbooks were most frequently considered by FPs to be reliable (trustworthy), and colleagues in the main patient care setting were most physically accessible (easy to access). When making specific clinical decisions, FPs were most likely to use information from sources that they considered to be reliable and generally physically accessible, suggesting that FPs can best be supported by facilitating easy and convenient access to high-quality information.
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Health information on the Internet is ubiquitous, and its use by health consumers prevalent. Finding and understanding relevant online health information, and determining content reliability, pose real challenges for many health consumers. PURPOSE: To identify the types of interventions that have been implemented to assist health consumers to find reliable online health information, and where possible, describe and compare the types of outcomes studied. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Library databases; WorldCat and Scirus 'gray literature' search engines; and manual review of reference lists of selected publications. STUDY SELECTION: Publications were selected by firstly screening title, abstract, and then full text. DATA EXTRACTION: Seven publications met the inclusion criteria, and were summarized in a data extraction form. The form incorporated the PICOS (Population Intervention Comparators Outcomes and Study Design Model. Two eligible gray literature papers were also reported. DATA SYNTHESIS: Relevant data from included studies were tabulated to enable descriptive comparison. A brief critique of each study was included in the tables. This review was unable to follow systematic review methods due to the paucity of research and humanistic interventions reported. LIMITATIONS: While extensive, the gray literature search may have had limited reach in some countries. The paucity of research on this topic limits conclusions that may be drawn. CONCLUSIONS: The few eligible studies predominantly adopted a didactic approach to assisting health consumers, whereby consumers were either taught how to find credible websites, or how to use the Internet. Common types of outcomes studied include knowledge and skills pertaining to Internet use and searching for reliable health information. These outcomes were predominantly self-assessed by participants. There is potential for further research to explore other avenues for
Lee, Kenneth; Hoti, Kreshnik; Hughes, Jeffery D; Emmerton, Lynne M
Health information on the Internet is ubiquitous, and its use by health consumers prevalent. Finding and understanding relevant online health information, and determining content reliability, pose real challenges for many health consumers. To identify the types of interventions that have been implemented to assist health consumers to find reliable online health information, and where possible, describe and compare the types of outcomes studied. PubMed, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Library databases; WorldCat and Scirus 'gray literature' search engines; and manual review of reference lists of selected publications. Publications were selected by firstly screening title, abstract, and then full text. Seven publications met the inclusion criteria, and were summarized in a data extraction form. The form incorporated the PICOS (Population Intervention Comparators Outcomes and Study Design) Model. Two eligible gray literature papers were also reported. Relevant data from included studies were tabulated to enable descriptive comparison. A brief critique of each study was included in the tables. This review was unable to follow systematic review methods due to the paucity of research and humanistic interventions reported. While extensive, the gray literature search may have had limited reach in some countries. The paucity of research on this topic limits conclusions that may be drawn. The few eligible studies predominantly adopted a didactic approach to assisting health consumers, whereby consumers were either taught how to find credible websites, or how to use the Internet. Common types of outcomes studied include knowledge and skills pertaining to Internet use and searching for reliable health information. These outcomes were predominantly self-assessed by participants. There is potential for further research to explore other avenues for assisting health consumers to find reliable online health information, and to assess outcomes via objective measures.
Full Text Available Observed associations between events can be validated by statistical information of reliability or by testament of communicative sources. We tested whether toddlers learn from their own observation of efficiency, assessed by statistical information on reliability of interventions, or from communicatively presented demonstration, when these two potential types of evidence of validity of interventions on a novel artifact are contrasted with each other. Eighteen-month-old infants observed two adults, one operating the artifact by a method that was more efficient (2/3 probability of success than that of the other (1/3 probability of success. Compared to the Baseline condition, in which communicative signals were not employed, infants tended to choose the less reliable method to operate the artifact when this method was demonstrated in a communicative manner in the Experimental condition. This finding demonstrates that, in certain circumstances, communicative sanctioning of reliability may override statistical evidence for young learners. Such a bias can serve fast and efficient transmission of knowledge between generations.
With an increasing pervasiveness, prevalence and severity of cybercrimes, various metrics, measures and statistics have been developed and used to measure various aspects of this phenomenon. Cybercrime-related data, metrics, and information, however, pose important and difficult dilemmas regarding the issues of reliability, validity, comparability and practical utility. While many of the issues of the cybercrime economy are similar to other underground and underworld industries, this economy ...
van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens
sectors hydrological data was lacking to make a reliable estimate of drought return periods. By 2021, the Netherlands Government aims to agree on the water supply service levels, which should describe water availability and quality that can be delivered with a certain return period. The Netherlands' Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, representatives of the regional water boards and Rijkswaterstaat (operating the main water system) as well as several consultants and research institutes are important stakeholders for further development of the method, evaluation of cases and the development of a quantitative risk-informed decision-making tool.
Hazardous drought impacts are a product of not only the physical intensity of drought, but also the economic, social, and environmental characteristics of the region exposed to drought. Drought risk management requires understanding the complex links between the physical and human dimensions of drought. Yet, there is a research gap in identifying and explaining the socio-economic complexities of drought in the context of the first world, especially for economic and socially marginal groups who rely on seasonal and temporary jobs. This research uses the current drought in California as a case study to identify the socioeconomic impacts of drought on farmworker communities in California's San Joaquin Valley, with a specific focus on the relationship between drought and agricultural labor. Through both a narrative analysis of drought coverage in newspaper media, drought policy documents, and interviews with farmworkers, farmers, community based organizations, and government officials in the San Joaquin Valley, this research aims to highlight the different understandings and experiences of the human impacts of drought and drought vulnerability in order to better inform drought risk planning and policy.
Xu, X H; Lv, Z Q; Zhou, X Y; Jiang, N
In the 1990s ecological early warning research began with the aim of elucidating the effect of drought in dry regions of the world. Drought has been a prevalent natural disaster, ravaging the Yun'nan province of China for over 5 years since 2009. Due to the extensive range, depth and devastating losses, the drought has reached a once-in-a-century severity. Yun'nan province suffered particularly badly from the drought, which took its toll on both the ecological environment and the sustainable economic development of the province. We chose to study Pu'er city in Yun'nun province for this research, and analysed the drought traits of Pu'er city utilizing geographic information technology. We applied the Mann-Kendall test for trend, linear tendency estimation and percentage of precipitation anomalies, as well as using combinations of monthly data searches of meteorological reports from 1980-2010. The results showed that except for a small rise in spring precipitation, the overall rainfall of Pu'er city showed a decreasing trend. The results of this study can provide an adequate and reliable theoretical basis and technological methods for use in government decision making, and promote research into early warning ecology.
Sevinç, H. K.; Karaş, I. R.
The development of mobile technologies is important in the lives of humans. Mobile devices constitute a great part of the daily lives of people. It has come to such a point that when people first wake up, they check their smart phones for the first thing. Users may share their positions with the GNSS sensors in mobile devices or they can add information about their positions in mobile applications. Users contribute to Geographical Information System with this sharing. These users consist of native (citizens) living in that geographical position not of the CBS specialists. Creating, collecting, sharing and disseminating the geographical data provided by voluntary individuals constitute the Volunteered Geographic Information System. The data in the Volunteered Geographic Information System are received from amateur users. "How reliable will the data received from amateur users instead of specialists of the field be in scientific terms?" In this study, the reliability between the data received from the voluntary users through Volunteered Geographic Information System and real data is investigated. The real data consist of the traffic accident coordinates. The data that will be received from users will be received through the speed values in the relevant coordinates and the marking of the users for possible accident points on the map.
Ved, Ronak; Cobbold, Naomi; Igbagiri, Kueni; Willis, Mark; Leach, Paul; Zaben, Malik
This study evaluates the quality of information available on the internet for carers of children with epilepsy considering treatment with Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS). Selected key phrases were entered into two popular search engines (Google™, Yahoo™). These phrases were: "Vagus nerve stimulator", alone and in combination with "childhood epilepsy", "paediatric epilepsy" and "epilepsy in childhood"; "VNS", and "VNS epilepsy". The first 50 hits per search were then screened. Of 600 identified sites, duplicated (262), irrelevant (230) and inaccessible (15) results were excluded. 93 websites were identified for evaluation using the DISCERN instrument, an online validation tool for patient information websites. The mean DISCERN score of all analysed websites was 39/80 (49%; SD 13.5). This equates to Fair to borderline Poor global quality, (Excellent=80-63; Good=62-51; Fair=50-39; Poor=38-27; Very poor=26-15). None of the analysed sites obtained an Excellent quality rating. 13% (12) obtained a Good score, 40% (37) obtained an Average score, 35% (33) obtained a Poor score, and 12% (11) obtained a Very poor score. The cohort of websites scored particularly poorly on assessment of whether reliable, holistic information was presented, for instance provision of reliable sources, (28%, SD 18) and discussion of alternative treatments, (30%, SD 14). To facilitate patient-centred shared decision-making, high quality information needs to be available for patients and families considering VNS. This study identifies that such information is difficult to locate on the internet. There is a need to develop focussed and reliable online patient resources for VNS. Copyright © 2017 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
O. O. Matusevych
Full Text Available The author proposed the numerous methods of solving the multi-criterion task – increasing of reliability of control system on the basis of expert information. The information, which allows choosing thoughtfully the method of reliability increasing for a control system of electric transport, is considered.
Wyatt, Jeremy C; Batley, Richard P; Keen, Justin
To elicit the preferences and trade-offs of UK general practitioners about key features of health information systems, to help inform the design of such systems in future. A stated choice study to uncover implicit preferences based on a binary choice between scenarios presented in random order. were all 303 general practice members of the UK Internet service provider, Medix who were approached by email to participate. The main outcome measure was the number of seconds delay in system response that general practitioners were willing to trade off for each key system feature: the reliability of the system, the sites from which the system could be accessed and which staff are able to view patient data. Doctors valued speed of response most in information systems but would be prepared to wait 28 seconds to access a system in exchange for improved reliability from 95% to 99%, a further 2 seconds for an improvement to 99.9% and 27 seconds for access to data from anywhere including their own home compared with one place in a single health care premises. However, they would require a system that was 14 seconds faster to compensate for allowing social care as well as National Health Service staff to read patient data. These results provide important new evidence about which system characteristics doctors value highly, and hence which characteristics designers need to focus on when large scale health information systems are planned. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Full Text Available A reliability assessment method based on evidential reasoning (ER rule and semiquantitative information is proposed in this paper, where a new reliability assessment architecture including four aspects with both quantitative data and qualitative knowledge is established. The assessment architecture is more objective in describing complex dynamic cloud computing environment than that in traditional method. In addition, the ER rule which has good performance for multiple attribute decision making problem is employed to integrate different types of the attributes in assessment architecture, which can obtain more accurate assessment results. The assessment results of the case study in an actual cloud computing platform verify the effectiveness and the advantage of the proposed method.
Sullivan, T Barrett; Anderson, Joshua T; Ahn, Uri M; Ahn, Nicholas U
regarding vertebroplasty is not only inadequate for proper patient education, but also potentially misleading as sites are more likely to present benefits of the procedure than risks. Although academic sites might be expected to offer higher-quality information than private, industry, or other sites, our data would suggest that they do not. HONCode certification cannot be used reliably as a means of qualifying website information quality. Academic sites should be expected to set a high standard and alter their Internet presence with adequate information distribution. Certification bodies also should alter their standards to necessitate provision of complete information in addition to emphasizing accurate information. Treating physicians may want to counsel their patients regarding the limitations of information present on the Internet and the pitfalls of current certification systems. Level IV, economic and decision analyses. See the Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
Thiago Henrique de Lima
Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to identify and evaluate the content of information about dengue available on Brazilian websites. Thirty-two websites were selected for the analysis. For the evaluation of the content of information about dengue, a form was prepared with 16 topics grouped in six information blocks: etiology/transmission, vector, control and prevention, disease/diagnosis, treatment and epidemiology. The websites were also evaluated according to the following criteria: authorship, update, language, interactivity, scientific basis and graphic elements. The results showed a predominantly lack of information in relation to the topics analyzed in each information block. Regarding the technical quality of the websites, only 28.1% showed some indication of scientific basis and 34.3% contained the date of publication or of the last update. Such results attested the low reliability of the selected websites. Knowing that the internet is an efficient mechanism for disseminating information on health topics, we concluded that the creation of such mechanisms to disseminate correct and comprehensive information about dengue is necessary in order to apply this useful tool in the prevention and control of the disease in Brazil.
Hanif, Faisal; Read, Janet C; Goodacre, John A; Chaudhry, Afzal; Gibbs, Paul
The Internet has made it possible for patients and their families to access vast quantities of information that previously would have been difficult for anyone but a physician or librarian to obtain. Health information websites, however, are recognised to differ widely in quality and reliability of their content. This has led to the development of various codes of conduct or quality rating tools to assess the quality of health websites. However, the validity and reliability of these quality tools and their applicability to different health websites also varies. In principle, rating tools should be available to consumers, require a limited number of elements to be assessed, be assessable in all elements, be readable and be able to gauge the readability and consistency of information provided from a patient's view point. This article reviews the literature on the trends of the Internet use for health and analyses various codes of conduct/ethics or 'quality tools' available to monitor the quality of health websites from a patient perspective.
Mancini, G.; Amesz, J.; Bastianini, P.; Capobianchi, S.
The paper revises the aims and objectives of the European Reliability Data System (ERDS), a centralized system collecting and organizing, at European level, information related to the operation of LWRs. The ERDS project was started in 1977 and after a preliminary feasibility study that ended in 1979 is now proceeding towards the final design and implementation stages. ERDS exploits information collected in national data systems and information deriving from single reactor sources. The paper describes first the development of the four data banks constituting the system: Component Event Data Bank, CEDB; Abnormal Occurrences Reporting System, AORS; Operating Unit Status Report, OUSR; and Generic Reliability Parameter Data Bank, GRPDB. Several typical aspects concerning the project are then outlined from the need of homogeneization of data and therefore the need for setting up reference classifications, to the problem of data transcoding and input into the system. Furthermore, the need is stressed of involving much more deeply nuclear power plant operators into the process of data acquisition by providing them with a useful feedback from the data analysis. (author)
Varlataya, S. K.; Evdokimov, V. E.; Urzov, A. Y.
This article describes a process of calculating a certain complex information security system (CISS) reliability using the example of the technospheric security management model as well as ability to determine the frequency of its maintenance using the system reliability parameter which allows one to assess man-made risks and to forecast natural and man-made emergencies. The relevance of this article is explained by the fact the CISS reliability is closely related to information security (IS) risks. Since reliability (or resiliency) is a probabilistic characteristic of the system showing the possibility of its failure (and as a consequence - threats to the protected information assets emergence), it is seen as a component of the overall IS risk in the system. As it is known, there is a certain acceptable level of IS risk assigned by experts for a particular information system; in case of reliability being a risk-forming factor maintaining an acceptable risk level should be carried out by the routine analysis of the condition of CISS and its elements and their timely service. The article presents a reliability parameter calculation for the CISS with a mixed type of element connection, a formula of the dynamics of such system reliability is written. The chart of CISS reliability change is a S-shaped curve which can be divided into 3 periods: almost invariable high level of reliability, uniform reliability reduction, almost invariable low level of reliability. Setting the minimum acceptable level of reliability, the graph (or formula) can be used to determine the period of time during which the system would meet requirements. Ideally, this period should not be longer than the first period of the graph. Thus, the proposed method of calculating the CISS maintenance frequency helps to solve a voluminous and critical task of the information assets risk management.
Men'shikov, V V
The article deals with the factors impacting the reliability of clinical laboratory information. The differences of qualities of laboratory analysis tools produced by various manufacturers are discussed. These characteristics are the causes of discrepancy of the results of laboratory analyses of the same analite. The role of the reference system in supporting the comparability of laboratory analysis results is demonstrated. The project of national standard is presented to regulate the requirements to standards and calibrators for analysis of qualitative and non-metrical characteristics of components of biomaterials.
Huang, Zhi-Hui; Tang, Ying-Chun; Dai, Kai
Semiconductor materials and Product qualified rate are directly related to the manufacturing costs and survival of the enterprise. Application a dynamic reliability growth analysis method studies manufacturing execution system reliability growth to improve product quality. Refer to classical Duane model assumptions and tracking growth forecasts the TGP programming model, through the failure data, established the Weibull distribution model. Combining with the median rank of average rank method, through linear regression and least squares estimation method, match respectively weibull information fusion reliability growth curve. This assumption model overcome Duane model a weakness which is MTBF point estimation accuracy is not high, through the analysis of the failure data show that the method is an instance of the test and evaluation modeling process are basically identical. Median rank in the statistics is used to determine the method of random variable distribution function, which is a good way to solve the problem of complex systems such as the limited sample size. Therefore this method has great engineering application value.
Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee; Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup
In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF
Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Insitute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.
Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun; Ha, Jae Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)
More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest SIA (Structured Information Analysis) for HRA. The proposed SIA consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis module that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis, systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task. 48 refs., 12 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)
Full Text Available With an increasing pervasiveness, prevalence and severity of cybercrimes, various metrics, measures and statistics have been developed and used to measure various aspects of this phenomenon. Cybercrime-related data, metrics, and information, however, pose important and difficult dilemmas regarding the issues of reliability, validity, comparability and practical utility. While many of the issues of the cybercrime economy are similar to other underground and underworld industries, this economy also has various unique aspects. For one thing, this industry also suffers from a problem partly rooted in the incredibly broad definition of the term “cybercrime”. This article seeks to provide insights and analysis into this phenomenon, which is expected to advance our understanding into cybercrime-related information.
Men'shikov, V V
The external evaluation of quality of clinical laboratory examinations was gradually introduced in USSR medical laboratories since 1970s. In Russia, in the middle of 1990 a unified all-national system of external evaluation quality was organized known as the Federal center of external evaluation of quality at the basis of laboratory of the state research center of preventive medicine. The main positions of policy in this area were neatly formulated in the guidance documents of ministry of Health. Nowadays, the center of external evaluation of quality proposes 100 and more types of control studies and permanently extends their specter starting from interests of different disciplines of clinical medicine. The consistent participation of laboratories in the cycles of external evaluation of quality intrinsically promotes improvement of indicators of properness and precision of analysis results and increases reliability of laboratory information. However, a significant percentage of laboratories does not participate at all in external evaluation of quality or takes part in control process irregularly and in limited number of tests. The managers of a number of medical organizations disregard the application of the proposed possibilities to increase reliability of laboratory information and limit financing of studies in the field of quality control. The article proposes to adopt the national standard on the basis of ISO 17043 "Evaluation of compliance. The common requirements of professional competence testing".
Groth, Katrina M.; Mosleh, Ali
This paper addresses three problems associated with the use of Performance Shaping Factors in Human Reliability Analysis. (1) There are more than a dozen Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods that use Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) or Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) to model human performance, but there is not a standard set of PIFs used among the methods, nor is there a framework available to compare the PIFs used in various methods. (2) The PIFs currently in use are not defined specifically enough to ensure consistent interpretation of similar PIFs across methods. (3) There are few rules governing the creation, definition, and usage of PIF sets. This paper introduces a hierarchical set of PIFs that can be used for both qualitative and quantitative HRA. The proposed PIF set is arranged in a hierarchy that can be collapsed or expanded to meet multiple objectives. The PIF hierarchy has been developed with respect to a set fundamental principles necessary for PIF sets, which are also introduced in this paper. This paper includes definitions of the PIFs to allow analysts to map the proposed PIFs onto current and future HRA methods. The standardized PIF hierarchy will allow analysts to combine different types of data and will therefore make the best use of the limited data in HRA. The collapsible hierarchy provides the structure necessary to combine multiple types of information without reducing the quality of the information.
Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.
Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information
Guadagno, C. R.; Beverly, D.; Pleban, J. R.; Speckman, H. N.; Ewers, B. E.; Weinig, C.
Aridity is one of the most pronounced environmental limits to plant survival, and understanding how plants respond to drought and recovery is crucial for predicting impacts on managed and natural ecosystems. Changes in soil moisture conditions induce a suite of physiological responses from the cell to ecosystem scale, complicating the assessment of drought effects. Characterizing early indicators of water scarcity across species can inform biophysical models with improved understanding of plant hydraulics. While indexes exist for drought monitoring across scales, many are unable to identify imminent vegetative drought. We explore a method of early diagnosis using leaf-level and kinetic imaging measures of variable chlorophyll a fluorescence. This is a fast and reliable tool capturing leaf physiological changes in advance of changes in NDVI or passive solar induced fluorescence. Both image and leaf level Pulse Amplitude Method (PAM) measurements illustrate the utility of variable chlorophyll a fluorescence for monitoring vegetative drought. Variable fluorescence was monitored across populations of crops, desert shrubs, montane conifers and riparian deciduous trees under variable water regimes. We found a strong correlation (R = 0.85) between the maximum efficiency of photosystem II measured using variable fluorescence (Fv'Fm') and leaf level electrolyte leakage, a proximal cause of drought stress induced by cellular damage in leaves. This association was confirmed in two gymnosperm species (Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta) and for diverse varieties of the crop species Brassica rapa. The use of chlorophyll a fluorescence per image also allowed for early detection of drought in aspen (Populus tremuloides). These results provide evidence that variable chlorophyll fluorescence decreases between 25% and 70% in mild and severely droughted twigs with respect to ones collected from trees in wet soil conditions. While current systems for monitoring variable fluorescence
Đukić Ljiljana C.
Full Text Available Introduction Today, there are many drugs for the treatment of a large number of indicator areas. Significant financial resources are invested in research with the aim of introducing reliable therapeutics to therapy. Therefore, it is necessary to provide health care professionals exact information about new therapies. The overall process of scientific data, ideas and information exchange is possible through numerous communications of modern IT tools. Methodology According to the Law, key information on registered drug is included in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SPC for health professionals, which is harmonized with EU directives and regulations (SmPC.Protocol content and structure of the information provided in SPC is determined in the guidelines of the EU, therefore, a unique set of data is established for all the drugs registered in Serbia. Topic This paper presents the key segments of SPC, with special reference to the description of the regulations that are required for data related to indications, mechanism of action, dosage, contraindications, side effects, interactions and other important information regarding the profile of the drug, which are standardized and harmonized with the structure of identical documents which operate at the EU level, or EMEA. Conclusions SPC is the regulatory determined technical document on medicinal products in the RS in which there are listed scientifically proven, clinical and pharmacological data and information on the profile of the drug, which are essential for health professionals - doctors and pharmacists in the implementation of pharmacotherapy in our society. This document is the starting point for the development of applied Pharmacoinformatics and it includes a range of activities important for the development of appropriate manuals and makes available data and information for monitoring indicators of the national policy on drugs and modern effective drugs treatment.
Korhonen, Pirjo; Kaila, Juha
Household mixed waste container weighing data was processed by knowledge discovery and data mining techniques to create reliable information of household waste generation. The final data set included 27,865 weight measurements covering the whole year 2013 and it was selected from a database of Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority, Finland. The data set contains mixed household waste arising in 6m(3) containers and it was processed identifying missing values and inconsistently low and high values as errors. The share of missing values and errors in the data set was 0.6%. This provides evidence that the waste weighing data gives reliable information of mixed waste generation at collection point level. Characteristic of mixed household waste arising at the waste collection point level is a wide variation between pickups. The seasonal variation pattern as a result of collective similarities in behaviour of households was clearly detected by smoothed medians of waste weight time series. The evaluation of the collection time series against the defined distribution range of pickup weights on the waste collection point level shows that 65% of the pickups were from collection points with optimally dimensioned container capacity and the collection points with over- and under-dimensioned container capacities were noted in 9.5% and 3.4% of all pickups, respectively. Occasional extra waste in containers occurred in 21.2% of the pickups indicating the irregular behaviour of individual households. The results of this analysis show that processing waste weighing data using knowledge discovery and data mining techniques provides trustworthy information of household waste generation and its variations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted
The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena
Frederiksen, Rikard; Wcislo, William T; Warrant, Eric J
Nocturnal animals relying on vision typically have eyes that are optically and morphologically adapted for both increased sensitivity and greater information capacity in dim light. Here, we investigate whether adaptations for increased sensitivity also are found in their photoreceptors by using closely related and fast-flying nocturnal and diurnal bees as model animals. The nocturnal bee Megalopta genalis is capable of foraging and homing by using visually discriminated landmarks at starlight intensities. Megalopta's near relative, Lasioglossum leucozonium, performs these tasks only in bright sunshine. By recording intracellular responses to Gaussian white-noise stimuli, we show that photoreceptors in Megalopta actually code less information at most light levels than those in Lasioglossum. However, as in several other nocturnal arthropods, Megalopta's photoreceptors possess a much greater gain of transduction, indicating that nocturnal photoreceptors trade information capacity for sensitivity. By sacrificing photoreceptor signal-to-noise ratio and information capacity in dim light for an increased gain and, thus, an increased sensitivity, this strategy can benefit nocturnal insects that use neural summation to improve visual reliability at night.
W. B. Anderson
Full Text Available Drought in East Africa is a recurring phenomenon with significant humanitarian impacts. Given the steep climatic gradients, topographic contrasts, general data scarcity, and, in places, political instability that characterize the region, there is a need for spatially distributed, remotely derived monitoring systems to inform national and international drought response. At the same time, the very diversity and data scarcity that necessitate remote monitoring also make it difficult to evaluate the reliability of these systems. Here we apply a suite of remote monitoring techniques to characterize the temporal and spatial evolution of the 2010–2011 Horn of Africa drought. Diverse satellite observations allow for evaluation of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological aspects of drought, each of which is of interest to different stakeholders. Focusing on soil moisture, we apply triple collocation analysis (TCA to three independent methods for estimating soil moisture anomalies to characterize relative error between products and to provide a basis for objective data merging. The three soil moisture methods evaluated include microwave remote sensing using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E sensor, thermal remote sensing using the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI surface energy balance algorithm, and physically based land surface modeling using the Noah land surface model. It was found that the three soil moisture monitoring methods yield similar drought anomaly estimates in areas characterized by extremely low or by moderate vegetation cover, particularly during the below-average 2011 long rainy season. Systematic discrepancies were found, however, in regions of moderately low vegetation cover and high vegetation cover, especially during the failed 2010 short rains. The merged, TCA-weighted soil moisture composite product takes advantage of the relative strengths of each method, as judged by the
Hari Deo eUpadhyaya
Full Text Available The chickpea and pigeonpea are protein rich grain legumes used for human consumption in many countries. Grain yield of these crops is low to moderate in the semi-arid tropics with large variation due to high GxE interaction. In the Indian subcontinent chickpea is grown in the post-rainy winter season on receding soil moisture, and in other countries during the cool and dry post winter or spring seasons. The pigeonpea is sown during rainy season which flowers and matures in postrainy season. The rainy months are hot and humid with diurnal temperature varying between 25-35oC (maximum and 20-25oC (minimum with an erratic rainfall. The available soil water during postrainy season is about 200-250 mm which is bare minimum to meet the normal evapotranspiration. Thus occurrence of drought is frequent and at varying degrees. To enhance productivity of these crops cultivars tolerant to drought need to be developed. ICRISAT conserves a large number of accessions of chickpea (>20,000 and pigeonpea (>15,000. However only a small proportion (<1% has been used in crop improvement programs mainly due to non-availability of reliable information on traits of economic importance. To overcome this core and mini core collections (10% of core, 1% of entire collection have been developed. Using the mini core approach, trait specific donor lines were identified for agronomic, quality and stress related traits in both crops. Composite collections were developed both in chickpea (3000 accessions and pigeonpea (1000 accessions, genotyped using SSR markers and genotype based reference sets of 300 accessions selected for each crop. Screening methods for different drought tolerant traits such as early maturity (drought escape, large and deep root system, high water use efficiency, smaller leaflets, reduced canopy temperature, carbon isotope discrimination, high leaf chlorophyll content (drought avoidance and breeding strategies for improving drought tolerance have been
Full Text Available Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.
Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei
Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.
Murrad, Muhamad; Leong, M. Salman
Based on the experiences of the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF), failure of the main rotor gearbox (MRGB) was one of the major contributing factors to helicopter breakdowns. Even though vibration and oil analysis are the effective techniques for monitoring the health of helicopter components, these two techniques were rarely combined to form an effective assessment tool in MAF. Results of the oil analysis were often used only for oil changing schedule while assessments of MRGB condition were mainly based on overall vibration readings. A study group was formed and given a mandate to improve the maintenance strategy of S61-A4 helicopter fleet in the MAF. The improvement consisted of a structured approach to the reassessment/redefinition suitable maintenance actions that should be taken for the MRGB. Basic and enhanced tools for condition monitoring (CM) are investigated to address the predominant failures of the MRGB. Quantitative accelerated life testing (QALT) was considered in this work with an intent to obtain the required reliability information in a shorter time with tests under normal stress conditions. These tests when performed correctly can provide valuable information about MRGB performance under normal operating conditions which enable maintenance personnel to make decision more quickly, accurately and economically. The time-to-failure and probability of failure information of the MRGB were generated by applying QALT analysis principles. This study is anticipated to make a dramatic change in its approach to CM, bringing significant savings and various benefits to MAF.
Malcov, Mira; Gold, Veronica; Peleg, Sagit; Frumkin, Tsvia; Azem, Foad; Amit, Ami; Ben-Yosef, Dalit; Yaron, Yuval; Reches, Adi; Barda, Shimi; Kleiman, Sandra E; Yogev, Leah; Hauser, Ron
The study is aimed to describe a novel strategy that increases the accuracy and reliability of PGD in patients using sperm donation by pre-selecting the donor whose haplotype does not overlap the carrier's one. A panel of 4-9 informative polymorphic markers, flanking the mutation in carriers of autosomal dominant/X-linked disorders, was tested in DNA of sperm donors before PGD. Whenever the lengths of donors' repeats overlapped those of the women, additional donors' DNA samples were analyzed. The donor that demonstrated the minimal overlapping with the patient was selected for IVF. In 8 out of 17 carriers the markers of the initially chosen donors overlapped the patients' alleles and 2-8 additional sperm donors for each patient were haplotyped. The selection of additional sperm donors increased the number of informative markers and reduced misdiagnosis risk from 6.00% ± 7.48 to 0.48% ±0.68. The PGD results were confirmed and no misdiagnosis was detected. Our study demonstrates that pre-selecting a sperm donor whose haplotype has minimal overlapping with the female's haplotype, is critical for reducing the misdiagnosis risk and ensuring a reliable PGD. This strategy may contribute to prevent the transmission of affected IVF-PGD embryos using a simple and economical procedure. All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. DNA testing of donors was approved by the institutional Helsinki committee (registration number 319-08TLV, 2008). The present study was approved by the institutional Helsinki committee (registration number 0385-13TLV, 2013).
Touhidul Mustafa, Syed Md.; Huysmans, Marijke
Groundwater drought is a specific type of drought that concerns groundwater bodies. It may have a significant adverse effect on the socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental conditions. Investigating the effect of response different climatic and manmade factors on groundwater drought provides essential information for sustainable planning and management of water resources. The aim of this study is to identify the influencing factors on groundwater drought in a drought prone region in Bangladesh to understand the forcing mechanisms. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) have been used to quantify the aggregated deficit between precipitation and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. The influence of land use patterns on the groundwater drought has been identified by calculating spatially distributed groundwater recharge as a function of land use. The result shows that drought intensity is more severe during the dry season (November to April) compared to the rainy season (May to October). The evapotranspiration and rainfall deficit has a significant effect on meteorological drought which has a direct relation with groundwater drought. Urbanization results in a decrease of groundwater recharge which increases groundwater drought severity. Overexploitation of groundwater for irrigation and recurrent meteorological droughts are the main causes of groundwater drought in the study area. Efficient irrigation management is essential to reduce the growing pressure on groundwater resources and ensure sustainable water management. More detailed studies on climate change and land use change effects on groundwater drought are recommended. Keywords: Groundwater drought, SPI & RDI, Spatially distributed groundwater recharge, Irrigation, Bangladesh
The second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Reliability program aims to improve trip time reliability by reducing the frequency and effects of events that cause travel times to fluctuate unpredictably. Congestion caused by unreliable, or n...
Andrés J Cortés
Full Text Available Reliable estimations of drought tolerance in wild plant populations have proved to be challenging and more accessible alternatives are desirable. With that in mind, an ecological diversity study was conducted based on the geographical origin of 104 wild common bean accessions to estimate drought tolerance in their natural habitats. Our wild population sample covered a range of mesic to very dry habitats from Mexico to Argentina. Two potential evapotranspiration models that considered the effects of temperature and radiation were coupled with the precipitation regimes of the last fifty years for each collection site based on geographical information system analysis. We found that wild accessions were distributed among different precipitation regimes following a latitudinal gradient and that habitat ecological diversity of the collection sites was associated with natural sub-populations. We also detected a broader geographic distribution of wild beans across ecologies compared to cultivated common beans in a reference collection of 297 cultivars. Habitat drought stress index based on the Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration model was equivalent to the Hamon estimator. Both ecological drought stress indexes would be useful together with population structure for the genealogical analysis of gene families in common bean, for genome-wide genetic-environmental associations, and for postulating the evolutionary history and diversification processes that have occurred for the species. Finally, we propose that wild common bean should be taken into account to exploit variation for drought tolerance in cultivated common bean which is generally considered susceptible as a crop to drought stress.
Sheffield, A. M.
After more than 5 years of drought, extreme precipitation brought drought relief in California and Nevada and presents an opportunity to reflect upon lessons learned while planning for the future. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) in June 2017 convened a regional coordination workshop to provide a forum to discuss and build upon past drought efforts in the region and increase coordination, collaboration and information sharing across the region as a whole. Participants included federal, tribal, state, academic, and local partners who provided a post-mortem on the recent drought and impacts as well as recent innovations in drought monitoring, forecasts, and decision support tools in response to the historic drought. This presentation will highlight lessons learned from stakeholder outreach and engagement around flooding during drought, and pathways for moving forward coordination and collaboration in the region. Additional focus will be on the potential opportunities from examining California decision making calendars from this drought. Identified gaps and challenges will also be shared, such as the need to connect observations with social impacts, capacity building around available tools and resources, and future drought monitoring needs. Drought will continue to impact California and Nevada, and the CA-NV DEWS works to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.
Bacterial mediated amelioration of drought stress in drought tolerant and susceptible cultivars of rice ( Oryza sativa L.) ... and IR-64 (drought sensitive) cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under different level of drought stress. ... from 32 Countries:.
Castelletti, A.; Zaniolo, M.; Giuliani, M.
our combined drought index succesfully reproduces the deficit. The index represents a valuable information for supporting appropriate drought management strategies, including the possibility of directly informing the lake operations about the drought conditions and improve the overall reliability of the irrigation supply system.
Ma Shwe Zin Nyunt
Full Text Available Background: The Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR scale is widely used to assess cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease. It requires collateral information from a reliable informant who is not available in many instances. We adapted the original CDR scale for use with elderly subjects without an informant (CDR-NI and evaluated its reliability and validity for assessing mild cognitive impairment (MCI and dementia among community-dwelling elderly subjects. Method: At two consecutive visits 1 week apart, nurses trained in CDR assessment interviewed, observed and rated cognitive and functional performance according to a protocol in 90 elderly subjects with suboptimal cognitive performance [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE Results: The CDR-NI scores (0, 0.5, 1 showed good internal consistency (Crohnbach's a 0.83-0.84, inter-rater reliability (κ 0.77-1.00 for six domains and 0.95 for global rating and test-retest reliability (κ 0.75-1.00 for six domains and 0.80 for global rating, good agreement (κ 0.79 with the clinical assessment status of MCI (n = 37 and dementia (n = 4 and significant differences in the mean scores for MMSE, MOCA and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ANOVA global p Conclusion: Owing to the protocol of the interviews, assessments and structured observations gathered during the two visits, CDR-NI provides valid and reliable assessment of MCI and dementia in community-living elderly subjects without an informant.
Nyunt, Ma Shwe Zin; Chong, Mei Sian; Lim, Wee Shiong; Lee, Tih Shih; Yap, Philip; Ng, Tze Pin
The Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scale is widely used to assess cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease. It requires collateral information from a reliable informant who is not available in many instances. We adapted the original CDR scale for use with elderly subjects without an informant (CDR-NI) and evaluated its reliability and validity for assessing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia among community-dwelling elderly subjects. At two consecutive visits 1 week apart, nurses trained in CDR assessment interviewed, observed and rated cognitive and functional performance according to a protocol in 90 elderly subjects with suboptimal cognitive performance [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) reliability (κ 0.77-1.00 for six domains and 0.95 for global rating) and test-retest reliability (κ 0.75-1.00 for six domains and 0.80 for global rating), good agreement (κ 0.79) with the clinical assessment status of MCI (n = 37) and dementia (n = 4) and significant differences in the mean scores for MMSE, MOCA and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ANOVA global p reliable assessment of MCI and dementia in community-living elderly subjects without an informant.
Zongtang Xie; Jiuping Xu; Yanfei Deng
The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the asse...
Githungo, W. N.; Shaka, A.; Kniveton, D.; Muithya, L.; Powell, R.; Visman, E. L.
The Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) counties of Kitui and Makueni in Kenya are experiencing increasing climate variability in seasonal rainfall, including changes in the onset, cessation and distribution of the two principal rains upon which the majority of the population's small-holder farmers and livestock keepers depend. Food insecurity is prevalent with significant numbers also affected by flooding during periods of intense rainfall. As part of a multi-partner Adaptation Consortium, Kenya Meteorological Services (KMS) are developing Climate Information Services (CIS) which can better support decision making amongst the counties' principal livelihoods groups and across County Government ministries. Building on earlier pilots and stakeholder discussion, the system combines the production of climate information tailored for transmission via regional and local radio stations with the establishment of a new SMS service. SMS are provided through a network of CIS intermediaries drawn from across key government ministries, religious networks, non-governmental and community groups, aiming to achieve one SMS recipient per 3-500 people. It also introduces a demand-led, premium-rate SMS weather information service which is designed to be self-financing in the long term. Supporting the ongoing process of devolution, KMS is downscaling national forecasts for each county, and providing seasonal, monthly, weekly and daily forecasts, as well as warnings of weather-related hazards. Through collaboration with relevant ministries, government bodies and research institutions, including livestock, agriculture, drought management and health, technical advisories are developed to provide guidance on application of the climate information. The system seeks to provide timely, relevant information which can enable people to use weather and climate information to support decisions which protect life and property and build resilience to ongoing climate variability and future change.
Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin
The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts
Zhang, Haiyan; Ni, Zhiyong; Chen, Quanjia; Guo, Zhongjun; Gao, Wenwei; Su, Xiujuan; Qu, Yanying
Drought, one of the most widespread factors reducing agricultural crop productivity, affects biological processes such as development, architecture, flowering and senescence. Although protein analysis techniques and genome sequencing have made facilitated the proteomic study of cotton, information on genetic differences associated with proteomic changes in response to drought between different cotton genotypes is lacking. To determine the effects of drought stress on cotton seedlings, we used two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (2-DE) and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry to comparatively analyze proteome of drought-responsive proteins during the seedling stage in two cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) cultivars, drought-tolerant KK1543 and drought-sensitive Xinluzao26. A total of 110 protein spots were detected on 2-DE maps, of which 56 were identified by MALDI-TOF and MALDI-TOF/TOF mass spectrometry. The identified proteins were mainly associated with metabolism (46.4 %), antioxidants (14.2 %), and transport and cellular structure (23.2 %). Some key proteins had significantly different expression patterns between the two genotypes. In particular, 5-methyltetrahydropteroyltriglutamate-homocysteine methyltransferase, UDP-D-glucose pyrophosphorylase and ascorbate peroxidase were up-regulated in KK1543 compared with Xinluzao26. Under drought stress conditions, the vacuolar H(+)-ATPase catalytic subunit, a 14-3-3g protein, translation initiation factor 5A and pathogenesis-related protein 10 were up-regulated in KK1543, whereas ribosomal protein S12, actin, cytosolic copper/zinc superoxide dismutase, protein disulfide isomerase, S-adenosylmethionine synthase and cysteine synthase were down-regulated in Xinluzao26. This work represents the first characterization of proteomic changes that occur in response to drought in roots of cotton plants. These differentially expressed proteins may be related to
Barg-Walkow, Laura H; Rogers, Wendy A
We examined how providing artificially high or low statements about automation reliability affected expectations, perceptions, and use of automation over time. One common method of introducing automation is providing explicit statements about the automation's capabilities. Research is needed to understand how expectations from such introductions affect perceptions and use of automation. Explicit-statement introductions were manipulated to set higher-than (90%), same-as (75%), or lower-than (60%) levels of expectations in a dual-task scenario with 75% reliable automation. Two experiments were conducted to assess expectations, perceptions, compliance, reliance, and task performance over (a) 2 days and (b) 4 days. The baseline assessments showed initial expectations of automation reliability matched introduced levels of expectation. For the duration of each experiment, the lower-than groups' perceptions were lower than the actual automation reliability. However, the higher-than groups' perceptions were no different from actual automation reliability after Day 1 in either study. There were few differences between groups for automation use, which generally stayed the same or increased with experience using the system. Introductory statements describing artificially low automation reliability have a long-lasting impact on perceptions about automation performance. Statements including incorrect automation reliability do not appear to affect use of automation. Introductions should be designed according to desired outcomes for expectations, perceptions, and use of the automation. Low expectations have long-lasting effects. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.
Wood, Eric; Yuan, Xing; Roundy, Joshua; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming
Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are significant sources of social and economic damage. In the United States according to the National Climatic Data Center, the losses from drought exceed US210 billion during 1980-2011, and account for about 24% of all losses from major weather disasters. Internationally, especially for the developing world, drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Providing reliable drought forecasts with sufficient early warning will help the governments to move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. After working on drought monitoring and forecasting over the USA for over 10 years, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing a global drought monitoring and forecasting system using a dynamical seasonal climate-hydrologic LSM-model (CHM) approach. Currently there is an active debate on the merits of the CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts as compared to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and its previous version CFSv1, to investigate the value of seasonal climate model forecasts by conducting a set of 27-year seasonal hydrologic hindcasts over the USA. Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation (R2) and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation averaged over major river basins across the USA, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO show further improvements (out to four months) over river basins in the southern USA. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over central USA out to six months because of strong soil moisture memory, and seasonal climate models provide better results over central and eastern USA. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur
Full Text Available The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the assessment results, provincial drought disaster risk spatial distribution maps for each major grain-producing area in China were obtained. These risk patterns showed that the probability of drought fell when the annual drought-covered rate and the annual drought-affected rate increased, and that the high risk areas were located primarily in China's northern and central provinces. These results can provide the basis for the development of effective drought mitigation strategies which would be able to inform possible drought situations and allow for easier decision-making on drought resistance strategies. The fuzzy relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the drought-caused grain production losses provides vital information for the development of disaster compensation plans. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the proposed methods had superior detection stability and higher precision. We hope that by conducting such agricultural drought risk analysis, the results are able to provide the basis for the development of drought mitigation strategies to reduce future losses.
Library or [twField/Test 217Plus Ally w/ a.romtu DAAData Experience Data Need t( rdito Trqnd • s aa(Model) develol analisis Mappng & ANLED217Plu...of collected reliability data and have discovered that even with sparse data, analysis of the data shows clustering of reliability data by equipment...intended search target. Conceptually cluster discovered data to allow more detailed analysis by equipment type. For example, it may be useful to
Hore, Sudipta Kumar; Werner, Micha; Maskey, Shreedhar
The North-West of Bangladesh is frequently affected by drought, which may have profound impacts to different water related sectors. The characterisation and identification of drought is, however, challenging. Despite several standard drought indices being available it is important that indicators proposed in support of an effective drought management are related to the impacts drought may have. In this study we present the characterisation of drought in the districts of Rajshahi and Rangpur in North-Western Bangladesh. Drought indicators were developed using available temperature, precipitation, river discharge and groundwater level data, as well as from remotely sensed NDVI data. We compare these indicators to records of drought impacts to agriculture, fisheries and migration collected from relevant organisations, as well as through interviews with key stakeholders, key informants, and community leaders. The analysis shows that droughts occur frequently, with nine occurrences in the last 42 years, as found using common meteorological drought indicators. NDVI data corroborated these events, despite being only available from 2001. The agricultural sector was adversely impacted in all events, with impacts correlated to drought severity. Impacts to the fisheries sector were, however, reported only three times, though impacts to fisheries are less well recorded. Interestingly, the good relationship between meteorological drought indicators and agricultural impacts weakens in the last decade. This appears to be due to the intensification of irrigation using groundwater, with the declining groundwater levels found in Rajshahi district suggesting overexploitation of the resource, and the increasing importance of groundwater drought indicators. The study reveals the drought indicators that are important to the agriculture and fisheries sectors, and also tentative threshold values at which drought start to impact these sectors. Such sector relevant drought indicators, as
Full Text Available Droughts are a recurrent and complex natural hazard whose frequency and magnitude are expected to increase with climate change. Despite the advances in responding and adapting to droughts (with the development of new policies, for example, droughts continue to cause serious impacts and suffering. Developing well-targeted public policies requires further research on adaptation. Specifically, understanding the public perception of drought can help to identify drivers of and barriers to adaptation and options. This research seeks to understand the public perception of drought in central Chile in order to inform adaptation-related policies and decision-making processes. This study focused on the Mega-drought, which was a protracted dry spell afflicting central Chile since 2010.
Hossack, Blake R.; Honeycutt, Richard; Sigafus, Brent H.; Muths, Erin L.; Crawford, Catherine L.; Jones, Thomas R.; Sorensen, Jeff A.; Rorabaugh, James C.; Chambert, Thierry
Understanding the additive or interactive threats of habitat transformation and invasive species is critical for conservation, especially where climate change is expected to increase the severity or frequency of drought. In the arid southwestern USA, this combination of stressors has caused widespread declines of native aquatic and semi-aquatic species. Achieving resilience to drought and other effects of climate change may depend upon continued management, so understanding the combined effects of stressors is important. We used Bayesian hierarchical models fitted with 10-years of pond-based monitoring surveys for the federally-endangered Sonoran Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi) and invasive predators (fishes and American Bullfrogs, Lithobates catesbeianus) that threaten native species. We estimated trends in occupancy of salamanders and invasive predators while accounting for hydrological dynamics of ponds, then used a two-species interaction model to directly estimate how invasive predators affected salamander occupancy. We also tested a conceptual model that predicted that drought, by limiting the distribution of invasive predators, could ultimately benefit native species. Even though occupancy of invasive predators was stationary and their presence in a pond reduced the probability of salamander presence by 23%, occupancy of Sonoran Tiger Salamanders increased, annually, by 2.2%. Occupancy of salamanders and invasive predators both declined dramatically following the 5th consecutive year of drought. Salamander occupancy recovered quickly after return to non-drought conditions, while occupancy of invasive predators remained suppressed. Models that incorporated three time-lagged periods (1 to 4 years) of local moisture conditions confirmed that salamanders and invasive predators responded differently to drought, reflecting how life-history strategies shape responses to disturbances. The positive 10-year trend in salamander occupancy and their
Vaegler, Sven; Sauer, Otto; Stsepankou, Dzmitry; Hesser, Juergen
The reduction of dose in cone beam computer tomography (CBCT) arises from the decrease of the tube current for each projection as well as from the reduction of the number of projections. In order to maintain good image quality, sophisticated image reconstruction techniques are required. The Prior Image Constrained Compressed Sensing (PICCS) incorporates prior images into the reconstruction algorithm and outperforms the widespread used Feldkamp-Davis-Kress-algorithm (FDK) when the number of projections is reduced. However, prior images that contain major variations are not appropriately considered so far in PICCS. We therefore propose the partial-PICCS (pPICCS) algorithm. This framework is a problem-specific extension of PICCS and enables the incorporation of the reliability of the prior images additionally. We assumed that the prior images are composed of areas with large and small deviations. Accordingly, a weighting matrix considered the assigned areas in the objective function. We applied our algorithm to the problem of image reconstruction from few views by simulations with a computer phantom as well as on clinical CBCT projections from a head-and-neck case. All prior images contained large local variations. The reconstructed images were compared to the reconstruction results by the FDK-algorithm, by Compressed Sensing (CS) and by PICCS. To show the gain of image quality we compared image details with the reference image and used quantitative metrics (root-mean-square error (RMSE), contrast-to-noise-ratio (CNR)). The pPICCS reconstruction framework yield images with substantially improved quality even when the number of projections was very small. The images contained less streaking, blurring and inaccurately reconstructed structures compared to the images reconstructed by FDK, CS and conventional PICCS. The increased image quality is also reflected in large RMSE differences. We proposed a modification of the original PICCS algorithm. The pPICCS algorithm
Vogt, Jürgen; de Jager, Alfred; Carrão, Hugo; Magni, Diego; Mazzeschi, Marco; Barbosa, Paulo
Droughts are occurring on all continents and across all climates. While in developed countries they cause significant economic and environmental damages, in less developed countries they may cause major humanitarian catastrophes. The magnitude of the problem and the expected increase in drought frequency, extent and severity in many, often highly vulnerable regions of the world demand a change from the current reactive, crisis-management approach towards a more pro-active, risk management approach. Such approach needs adequate and timely information from global to local scales as well as adequate drought management plans. Drought information systems are important for continuous monitoring and forecasting of the situation in order to provide timely information on developing drought events and their potential impacts. Against this background, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing a Global Drought Observatory (GDO) for the European Commission's humanitarian services, providing up-to-date information on droughts world-wide and their potential impacts. Drought monitoring is achieved by a combination of meteorological and biophysical indicators, while the societal vulnerability to droughts is assessed through the targeted analysis of a series of social, economic and infrastructural indicators. The combination of the information on the occurrence and severity of a drought, on the assets at risk and on the societal vulnerability in the drought affected areas results in a likelihood of impact, which is expressed by a Likelihood of Drought Impact (LDI) indicator. The location, extent and magnitude of the LDI is then further analyzed against the number of people and land use/land cover types affected in order to provide the decision bodies with information on the potential humanitarian and economic bearings in the affected countries or regions. All information is presented through web-mapping interfaces based on OGC standards and customized reports can be drawn by the
New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.
Hong, Tran Thi; Phuong Hoa, Nguyen; Walker, Sue M; Hill, Peter S; Rao, Chalapati
Mortality statistics form a crucial component of national Health Management Information Systems (HMIS). However, there are limitations in the availability and quality of mortality data at national level in Viet Nam. This study assessed the completeness of recorded deaths and the reliability of recorded causes of death (COD) in the A6 death registers in the national routine HMIS in Viet Nam. 1477 identified deaths in 2014 were reviewed in two provinces. A capture-recapture method was applied to assess the completeness of the A6 death registers. 1365 household verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were successfully conducted, and these were reviewed by physicians who assigned multiple and underlying cause of death (UCOD). These UCODs from VA were then compared with the CODs recorded in the A6 death registers, using kappa scores to assess the reliability of the A6 death register diagnoses. The overall completeness of the A6 death registers in the two provinces was 89.3% (95%CI: 87.8-90.8). No COD recorded in the A6 death registers demonstrated good reliability. There is very low reliability in recording of cardiovascular deaths (kappa for stroke = 0.47 and kappa for ischaemic heart diseases = 0.42) and diabetes (kappa = 0.33). The reporting of deaths due to road traffic accidents, HIV and some cancers are at a moderate level of reliability with kappa scores ranging between 0.57-0.69 (pViet Nam.
Haruna, Hussein; Tshuma, Ndumiso; Hu, Xiao
Understanding health information needs and health-seeking behavior is a prerequisite for developing an electronic health information literacy (EHIL) or eHealth literacy program for nondegree health sciences students. At present, interest in researching health information needs and reliable sources paradigms has gained momentum in many countries. However, most studies focus on health professionals and students in higher education institutions. The present study was aimed at providing new insight and filling the existing gap by examining health information needs and reliability of sources among nondegree health sciences students in Tanzania. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 15 conveniently selected health training institutions, where 403 health sciences students were participated. Thirty health sciences students were both purposely and conveniently chosen from each health-training institution. The selected students were pursuing nursing and midwifery, clinical medicine, dentistry, environmental health sciences, pharmacy, and medical laboratory sciences courses. Involved students were either in their first year, second year, or third year of study. Health sciences students' health information needs focus on their educational requirements, clinical practice, and personal information. They use print, human, and electronic health information. They lack eHealth research skills in navigating health information resources and have insufficient facilities for accessing eHealth information, a lack of specialists in health information, high costs for subscription electronic information, and unawareness of the availability of free Internet and other online health-related databases. This study found that nondegree health sciences students have limited skills in EHIL. Thus, designing and incorporating EHIL skills programs into the curriculum of nondegree health sciences students is vital. EHIL is a requirement common to all health settings, learning environments, and
Mishra, Ashok; Vu, Tue; Veettil, Anoop Valiya; Entekhabi, Dara
Recent launch of space-borne systems to estimate surface soil moisture may expand the capability to map soil moisture deficit and drought with global coverage. In this study, we use Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture geophysical retrieval products from passive L-band radiometer to evaluate its applicability to forming agricultural drought indices. Agricultural drought is quantified using the Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) based on SMAP and soil properties (field capacity and available water content) information. The soil properties are computed using pedo-transfer function with soil characteristics derived from Harmonized World Soil Database. The SMAP soil moisture product needs to be rescaled to be compatible with the soil parameters derived from the in situ stations. In most locations, the rescaled SMAP information captured the dynamics of in situ soil moisture well and shows the expected lag between accumulations of precipitation and delayed increased in surface soil moisture. However, the SMAP soil moisture itself does not reveal the drought information. Therefore, the SMAP based SWDI (SMAP_SWDI) was computed to improve agriculture drought monitoring by using the latest soil moisture retrieval satellite technology. The formulation of SWDI does not depend on longer data and it will overcome the limited (short) length of SMAP data for agricultural drought studies. The SMAP_SWDI is further compared with in situ Atmospheric Water Deficit (AWD) Index. The comparison shows close agreement between SMAP_SWDI and AWD in drought monitoring over Contiguous United States (CONUS), especially in terms of drought characteristics. The SMAP_SWDI was used to construct drought maps for CONUS and compared with well-known drought indices, such as, AWD, Palmer Z-Index, sc-PDSI and SPEI. Overall the SMAP_SWDI is an effective agricultural drought indicator and it provides continuity and introduces new spatial mapping capability for drought monitoring. As an
Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Lara, A.; Garreaud, R. D.
Droughts propagate in the hydrological cycle from meteorological to soil moisture to hydrological droughts. To understand the drivers of this process is of paramount importance since the economic and societal impacts in water resources are directly related with hydrological droughts (and not with meteorological droughts, which have been most studied). This research analyses drought characteristics over a large region and identify its main exogenous (climate forcing) and endogenous (biophysical characteristics such as land cover type and topography) explanatory factors. The study region is Chile, which covers seven major climatic subtypes according to Köppen system, it has unique geographic characteristics, very sharp topography and a wide range of landscapes and vegetation conditions. Meteorological and hydrological droughts (deficit in precipitation and streamflow, respectively) are characterized by their durations and standardized deficit volumes using a variable threshold method, over 300 representative catchments (located between 27°S and 50°S). To quantify the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought, we propose a novel drought attenuation index (DAI), calculated as the ratio between the meteorological drought severity slope and the hydrological drought severity slope. DAI varies from zero (catchment that attenuates completely a meteorological drought) to one (the meteorological drought is fully propagated through the hydrological cycle). This novel index provides key (and comparable) information about drought propagation over a wide range of different catchments, which has been highlighted as a major research gap. Similar drought indicators across the wide range of catchments are then linked with catchment biophysical characteristics. A thorough compilation of land cover information (including the percentage of native forests, grass land, urban and industrial areas, glaciers, water bodies and no vegetated areas), catchment physical
Svoboda, M. D.; Hayes, M. J.; Knutson, C. L.; Wardlow, B. D.
The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) was formed in 1995 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Over the past 15 years, the NDMC has made it a priority to work with various local, state, tribal and federal entities to provide a suite of drought/climate services, with a goal of bringing research to fruition through applications and operations. Through our research and outreach projects, the NDMC has worked to reduce risk to drought by developing several mitigation strategies, monitoring and decision making tools and other services aimed at enhancing our nation’s capacity to cope with drought. Two of the earliest NDMC activities were the creation of a website and assessing drought conditions around the United States. An electronic drought clearinghouse was built in 1995 at drought.unl.edu. The site was designed, and still concentrates, on the concepts of drought monitoring, planning, and mitigation and also serves as a repository of information from around the world. The NDMC’s electronic quarterly newsletter, DroughtScape, disseminates information about all things drought to people across the country. In addition, the NDMC has developed and is home to websites for the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), and the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI). In an effort to inform decision makers, the NDMC continually pursues ways to raise the awareness and visibility of drought as one of the most costly hazards we face. This began in the mid-1990s with the creation of a state-based drought impact assessment map that would help lead to the formation of the USDM in 1999 and the DIR in 2005. The NDMC plays a key role in producing the weekly USDM and the monthly North American Drought Monitor (NADM). The USDM was created out of collaborations between the NDMC, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and has quickly become one of the most widely used products in assessing
Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre
The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit
Limaye, Ashutosh; McNider, Richard; Moss, Donald; Alhamdan, Mohammad
Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop
Singh, B. B.
Success in breeding for drought tolerance has not been as pronounced as for other traits. This is partly due to lack of simple, cheap and reliable screening methods to select drought tolerant plants/progenies from the segregating populations and partly due to complexity of factors involved in drought tolerance. Measuring drought tolerance through physiological parameters is expensive, time consuming and difficult to use for screening large numbers of lines and segregating populations. Since several factors/mechanisms (in shoot and root) operate independently and/or jointly to enable plants to cope with drought stress, drought tolerance appears as a complex trait. However, if these factors/mechanisms can be separated and studied individually, the components leading to drought tolerance will appear less complex and may be easy to manipulate by breeders. We have developed a simple box screening method for shoot drought tolerance in cowpea, which eliminates the effects of roots and permits non-destructive visual identification of shoot dehydration tolerance. We have also developed a 'root-box pin-board' method to study two dimensional root architecture of individual plants. Using these methods, we have identified two mechanisms of shoot drought tolerance in cowpea which are controlled by single dominant genes and major difference for root architecture among cowpea varieties. Combining deep and dense root system with shoot dehydration tolerance results into highly drought tolerant plants
Real-Rangel, Roberto; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Breña-Naranjo, Agustín; Alcocer-Yamanaka, Víctor
Around the world, monitoring natural hazards, such as droughts, represents a critical task in risk assessment and management plans. A reliable drought monitoring system allows to identify regions affected by these phenomena so that early response measures can be implemented. In Mexico, this activity is performed using Mexico's Drought Monitor, which is based on a similar methodology as the United States Drought Monitor and the North American Drought Monitor. The main feature of these monitoring systems is the combination of ground-based and remote sensing observations that is ultimately validated by local experts. However, in Mexico in situ records of variables such as precipitation and streamflow are often scarce, or even null, in many regions of the country. Another issue that adds uncertainty in drought monitoring is the arbitrary weight given to each analyzed variable. This study aims at providing an operational framework for drought monitoring in Mexico, based on univariate and multivariate nonparametric standardized indexes proposed in recent studies. Furthermore, the framework has been extended by taking into account the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) for the drought severity assessment. The analyzed variables used for computing the drought indexes are mainly derived from remote sensing (MODIS) and land surface models datasets (NASA MERRA-2). A qualitative evaluation of the results shows that the indexes used are capable of adequately describes the intensity and spatial distribution of past drought documented events.
Champagne, C.; Wang, S.; Liu, J.; Hadwen, T. A.
Drought is a complex natural disaster, which often emerges slowly, but can occur at various time scales and have impacts that are not well understood. Long term observations of drought intensity and frequency are often quantified from precipitation and temperature based indices or modelled estimates of soil water storage. The maturity of satellite based observations has created the potential to enhance the understanding of drought and drought impacts, particularly in regions where traditional data sets are limited by remoteness or inaccessibility, and where drought processes are not well-quantified by models. Long term global satellite data records now provide observations of key hydrological variables, including evaporation modelled from thermal sensors, soil moisture from microwave sensors, ground water from gravity sensors and vegetation condition that can be modelled from optical sensors. This study examined trends in drought frequency, intensity and duration over diverse ecoregions in Canada, including agricultural, grassland, forested and wetland areas. Trends in drought were obtained from the Canadian Drought Monitor as well as meteorological based indices from weather stations, and evaluated against satellite derived information on evaporative stress (Anderson et al. 2011), soil moisture (Champagne et al. 2015), terrestrial water storage (Wang and Li 2016) and vegetation condition (Davidson et al. 2009). Data sets were evaluated to determine differences in how different sensors characterize the hydrology and impacts of drought events from 2003 to 2016. Preliminary results show how different hydrological observations can provide unique information that can tie causes of drought (water shortages resulting from precipitation, lack of moisture storage or evaporative stress) to impacts (vegetation condition) that hold the potential to improve the understanding and classification of drought events.
Full Text Available Dynamic quantification of drought response is a key issue both for variety selection and for functional genetic study of rice drought resistance. Traditional assessment of drought resistance traits, such as stay-green and leaf-rolling, has utilized manual measurements, that are often subjective, error-prone, poorly quantified and time consuming. To relieve this phenotyping bottleneck, we demonstrate a feasible, robust and non-destructive method that dynamically quantifies response to drought, under both controlled and field conditions. Firstly, RGB images of individual rice plants at different growth points were analyzed to derive 4 features that were influenced by imposition of drought. These include a feature related to the ability to stay green, which we termed greenness plant area ratio (GPAR and 3 shape descriptors [total plant area/bounding rectangle area ratio (TBR, perimeter area ratio (PAR and total plant area/convex hull area ratio (TCR]. Experiments showed that these 4 features were capable of discriminating reliably between drought resistant and drought sensitive accessions, and dynamically quantifying the drought response under controlled conditions across time (at either daily or half hourly time intervals. We compared the 3 shape descriptors and concluded that PAR was more robust and sensitive to leaf-rolling than the other shape descriptors. In addition, PAR and GPAR proved to be effective in quantification of drought response in the field. Moreover, the values obtained in field experiments using the collection of rice varieties were correlated with those derived from pot-based experiments. The general applicability of the algorithms is demonstrated by their ability to probe archival Miscanthus data previously collected on an independent platform. In conclusion, this image-based technology is robust providing a platform-independent tool for quantifying drought response that should be of general utility for breeding and functional
Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; Teng, Bill; Loeser, Carlee; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matt
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.
Amundsen, Eirik S; Jensen, Frank
This paper considers the problem of a water management authority faced with the threat of a drought that hits at an uncertain date. Three management policies are investigated: i) a laissez-faire (open-access) policy of automatic adjustment through a zero marginal private net benefit condition, ii......-drought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water under policy iii) is smaller than under policy ii) and, hence, a precautionary stock size should not be built up prior to the drought....
Identification of Classified Information in Unclassified DoD Systems During the Audit of Internal Controls and Data Reliability in the Deployable...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Identification of Classified Information in Unclassified DoD Systems During the Audit of Internal Controls and Data Reliability...Systems During the Audit ofInternal Controls and Data Reliability in the Deployable Disbursing System (Report No. D-2009-054) Weare providing this
Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Wood, A. W.; Morton, C.; Verdin, J. P.
We have developed a physically based, multi-scalar drought index—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)—to improve treatment of evaporative dynamics in drought monitoring. Existing popular drought indices—such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index that informs much of the US Drought Monitor (USDM)—have primarily relyied on precipitation and temperature (T) to represent hydroclimatic anomalies, leaving evaporative demand (E0) most often derived from poorly performing T-based parameterizations then used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from LSMs. Instead, EDDI leverages the inter-relations of E0 and ET, measuring E0's physical response to surface drying anomalies due to two distinct land surface/atmosphere interactions: (i) in sustained drought, limited moisture availability forces E0 and ET into a complementary relation, whereby ET declines as E0 increases; and (ii) in "flash" droughts, E0 increases due to increasing advection or radiation. E0's rise in response to both drought types suggests EDDI's robustness as a monitor and leading indicator of drought. To drive EDDI, we use for E0 daily reference ET from the ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation forced by North American Land Data Assimilation System drivers. EDDI is derived by aggregating E0 anomalies from its long-term mean across a period of interest and normalizing them to a Z-score. Positive EDDI indicates drier than normal conditions (and so drought). We use the current historic California drought as a test-case in which to examine EDDI's performance in monitoring agricultural and hydrologic drought. We observe drought development and decompose the behavior of drought's evaporative drivers during in-drought intensification periods and wetting events. EDDI's performance as a drought leading indicator with respect to the USDM is tested in important agricultural regions. Comparing streamflow from several USGS gauges in the Sierra Nevada to EDDI, we find that EDDI tracks most major
Dalby, D; Harrison-Church, R J; Berzaz, F [eds.
The second edition of Drought in Africa is reviewed. The book, which has been greatly expanded, looks at the Sahelian and Ethiopian droughts from a long-term perspective. Among the subjects included are: a description of the meteorological aspects of the drought; changes in animal and human populations; overpopulation of areas of nomadic pastoralism and of crop-producing areas; and mechanisms by which people survived. Cash crops, taxes, the market economy and over-centralized planning receive much of the blame for the effects of the drought.
Drapkin, J. K.; Wagner, L.
When it comes to the impacts of weather and climate, the granular local data and context needed to inform infrastructure decisions, hazard mitigation efforts, and long-term planning can't be scraped from satellites, remote sensing, or radar data. This is particularly the case with respect to the heat inside people's homes, local street flooding, and landscapes historically unaccustomed to drought conditions. ISeeChange is developing tools that empower citizens, scientists, city planners, journalists, and local community groups to collaborate and iteratively fill-in crucial data gaps as conditions change in real time. ISeeChange connects the public with national media, scientists, and data tools that support community dialogue and enable collaborative science and journalism investigations about our changing environment. ISeeChange's app and platform serve as the center of several on- the-ground community pilot initiatives in cities around the country addressing urban heat, flooding, and drought. Results from ISeeChange investigations suggest that indoor temperatures in Harlem are 7-8 degrees hotter than outdoor temperatures at night; some residents in New Orleans may be experiencing the impacts of 5-year-floods on a more regular basis, and droughts don't look or behave the same in different regions, such as New England. Our presentation will focus on pilots in New Orleans, Harlem, and New England, which demonstrate how diverse teams are producing actionable science to inform the design of resilience efforts like real-time indoor heat notification systems, green infrastructure projects to manage stormwater and flooding, and a photographic index of drought.
Lebanova, Hristina; Getov, Ilko; Grigorov, Evgeni
Information disseminated by medicines information systems is not always easy to apply. Nowadays internet provides access to enormous volume and range of health information that was previously inaccessible both for medical specialists and consumers. The aim of this study is to assess internet as a source of drug and health related information and to create test methodology to evaluate the top 10 visited health-related web-sites in Bulgaria. Using existing scientific methodologies for evaluation of web sources, a new algorithm of three-step approach consisting of score-card validation of the drug-related information in the 10 most visited Bulgarian web-sites was created. In many cases the drug information in the internet sites contained errors and discrepancies. Some of the published materials were not validated; they were out-of-date and could cause confusion for consumers. The quality of the online health information is a cause for considerable information noise and threat to patients' safety and rational drug use. There is a need of monitoring the drugs information available online in order to prevent patient misinformation and confusion that could lead to medication errors and abuse.
Panu, U. S.; Crinklaw, T.
Droughts are natural phenomenon experienced by all nations across the globe. Drought inherently means a scarcity of water, which adversely affects various sectors of human socio-economic spectrum, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation, water supply, industry, recreation, navigation, fish production etc. The prime cause of droughts is the occurrence of less than optimal (below normal) precipitation, which has its origin to various natural reasons, the most important being the global climatic forcing. Droughts are also referred to as sustained and regionally extensive occurrences of below average water availability which invariably cultivate into environmental disasters. The evolution of a drought event is defined into four types; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Drought affects all aspects of societal systems irrespective of how it is defined. This has led to a wide range of studies conducted by meteorologists, ecologists, environmentalists, hydrologists, geologists and agricultural scientists in attempts to understand drought processes as required to analyze and predict the impacts of droughts. A conceptual definition, such as a shortage of water relied on by human activity, avoids quantification of a drought event. On the other hand, the purpose of an operational definition is to determine the beginning, termination, and severity of a drought event. The severity assessment of droughts is of primary importance for allocation and management of available water resources. The progression and impact of historical droughts in a region is helpful for developing relationships and techniques to investigate relevant characteristics of droughts. For optimum drought preparedness and mitigative responses, professional bodies need to provide information to private and government agencies in a manner that may also be understood by their employers, stakeholders and the general public. Drought indicators bridge this communication gap between all
Simpao, Allan F; Pruitt, Eric Y; Cook-Sather, Scott D; Gurnaney, Harshad G; Rehman, Mohamed A
Manual incident reports significantly under-report adverse clinical events when compared with automated recordings of intraoperative data. Our goal was to determine the reliability of AIMS and CQI reports of adverse clinical events that had been witnessed and recorded by research assistants. The AIMS and CQI records of 995 patients aged 2-12 years were analyzed to determine if anesthesia providers had properly documented the emesis events that were observed and recorded by research assistants who were present in the operating room at the time of induction. Research assistants recorded eight cases of emesis during induction that were confirmed with the attending anesthesiologist at the time of induction. AIMS yielded a sensitivity of 38 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 8.5-75.5 %), while the sensitivity of CQI reporting was 13 % (95 % CI 0.3-52.7 %). The low sensitivities of the AIMS and CQI reports suggest that user-reported AIMS and CQI data do not reliably include significant clinical events.
Vogt, Jürgen; Sepulcre, Guadalupe; Magni, Diego; Valentini, Luana; Singleton, Andrew; Micale, Fabio; Barbosa, Paulo
Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, developing combined indicators, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and testing options for medium-range probabilistic drought forecasting across Europe. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in the development of the system as well as an outlook on the future developments.
Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K
This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul
Boseovski, Janet J.
Young children have been described as critical consumers of information, particularly in the domain of language learning. Indeed, children are more likely to learn novel words from people with accurate histories of object labeling than with inaccurate ones. But what happens when informant testimony conflicts with a tendency to see the world in a…
Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.
Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with a significant impact on agriculture, environment, society and economy. Droughts affect sustainability of agriculture and may result in environmental degradation of a region, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture. This paper addresses agrometeorological or agricultural drought within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with risk identification of agricultural drought, which involves drought quantification and monitoring, as well as statistical inference. For the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the vegetation health index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI, are areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/advanced very high resolution radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural drought-prone region of Greece, characterized by vulnerable agriculture. The results show that agricultural drought appears every year during the warm season in the region. The severity of drought is increasing from mild to extreme throughout the warm season, with peaks appearing in the summer. Similarly, the areal extent of drought is also increasing during the warm season, whereas the number of extreme drought pixels is much less than
Guikema, Seth D.
Priors play an important role in the use of Bayesian methods in risk analysis, and using all available information to formulate an informative prior can lead to more accurate posterior inferences. This paper examines the practical implications of using five different methods for formulating an informative prior for a failure probability based on past data. These methods are the method of moments, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, maximum entropy estimation, starting from a non-informative 'pre-prior', and fitting a prior based on confidence/credible interval matching. The priors resulting from the use of these different methods are compared qualitatively, and the posteriors are compared quantitatively based on a number of different scenarios of observed data used to update the priors. The results show that the amount of information assumed in the prior makes a critical difference in the accuracy of the posterior inferences. For situations in which the data used to formulate the informative prior is an accurate reflection of the data that is later observed, the ML approach yields the minimum variance posterior. However, the maximum entropy approach is more robust to differences between the data used to formulate the prior and the observed data because it maximizes the uncertainty in the prior subject to the constraints imposed by the past data
Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Rohse, Melanie; Day, Rosie; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Makaya, Eugine
Drought events cause severe water and food insecurities in many developing countries where resilience to natural hazards and change is low due to a number of reasons (including poverty, social and political inequality, and limited access to information). Furthermore, with climate change and increasing pressures from population and societal change, populations are expected to experience future droughts outside of their historic range. Integrated water resources management is an established tool combining natural science, engineering and management to help address drought and associated impacts. However, it often lacks a strong social and cultural aspect, leading to poor implementation on the ground. For a more holistic approach to building resilience to future drought, a stronger interdisciplinary approach is required which can incorporate the local cultural context and perspectives into drought and water management, and communicate information effectively to communities. In this pilot project 'CreativeDrought', we use a novel interdisciplinary approach aimed at building resilience to future drought in rural Africa by combining hydrological modelling with rich local information and engaging communicative approaches from social sciences. The work is conducted through a series of steps in which we i) engage with local rural communities to collect narratives on drought experiences; ii) generate hydrological modelling scenarios based on IPCC projections, existing data and the collected narratives; iii) feed these back to the local community to gather their responses to these scenarios; iv) iteratively adapt them to obtain hypothetical future drought scenarios; v) engage the community with the scenarios to formulate new future drought narratives; and vi) use this new data to enhance local water resource management. Here we present some of the indigenous knowledge gathered through narratives and the hydrological modelling scenarios for a rural community in Southern Africa
Tung, Li-Chen; Yu, Wan-Hui; Lin, Gong-Hong; Yu, Tzu-Ying; Wu, Chien-Te; Tsai, Chia-Yin; Chou, Willy; Chen, Mei-Hsiang; Hsieh, Ching-Lin
To develop a Tablet-based Symbol Digit Modalities Test (T-SDMT) and to examine the test-retest reliability and concurrent validity of the T-SDMT in patients with stroke. The study had two phases. In the first phase, six experts, nine college students and five outpatients participated in the development and testing of the T-SDMT. In the second phase, 52 outpatients were evaluated twice (2 weeks apart) with the T-SDMT and SDMT to examine the test-retest reliability and concurrent validity of the T-SDMT. The T-SDMT was developed via expert input and college student/patient feedback. Regarding test-retest reliability, the practise effects of the T-SDMT and SDMT were both trivial (d=0.12) but significant (p≦0.015). The improvement in the T-SDMT (4.7%) was smaller than that in the SDMT (5.6%). The minimal detectable changes (MDC%) of the T-SDMT and SDMT were 6.7 (22.8%) and 10.3 (32.8%), respectively. The T-SDMT and SDMT were highly correlated with each other at the two time points (Pearson's r=0.90-0.91). The T-SDMT demonstrated good concurrent validity with the SDMT. Because the T-SDMT had a smaller practise effect and less random measurement error (superior test-retest reliability), it is recommended over the SDMT for assessing information processing speed in patients with stroke. Implications for Rehabilitation The Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), a common measure of information processing speed, showed a substantial practise effect and considerable random measurement error in patients with stroke. The Tablet-based SDMT (T-SDMT) has been developed to reduce the practise effect and random measurement error of the SDMT in patients with stroke. The T-SDMT had smaller practise effect and random measurement error than the SDMT, which can provide more reliable assessments of information processing speed.
Michael G. Ryan
With global climate change, drought may become more common in the future (IPCC 2007). Several factors will promote more frequent droughts: earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures and higher variability in precipitation. For ecosystems where the water cycle is dominated by snowmelt, warmer temperatures bring earlier melt (Stewart et al. 2005) and longer, drier snow-free...
Mullan, B.; Porteous, A.; Wratt, D.; Hollis, M.
As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.
Kristjanson Linda J
Full Text Available Abstract Background It is difficult to determine the most effective approach to patient education or tailor education interventions for patients in radiotherapy without tools that assess patients' specific radiation therapy information needs and concerns. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop psychometrically sound tools to adequately determine the concerns and information needs of cancer patients during radiation therapy. Patients and Methods Two tools were developed to (1 determine patients concerns about radiation therapy (RT Concerns Scale and (2 ascertain patient's information needs at different time point during their radiation therapy (RT Information Needs Scale. Tools were based on previous research by the authors, published literature on breast cancer and radiation therapy and information behaviour research. Thirty-one breast cancer patients completed the questionnaire on one occasion and thirty participants completed the questionnaire on a second occasion to facilitate test-retest reliability. One participant's responses were removed from the analysis. Results were analysed for content validity, internal consistency and stability over time. Results Both tools demonstrated high internal consistency and adequate stability over time. The nine items in the RT Concerns Scale were retained because they met all pre-set psychometric criteria. Two items were deleted from the RT Information Needs Scale because they did not meet content validity criteria and did not achieve pre-specified criteria for internal consistency. This tool now contains 22 items. Conclusion This paper provides preliminary data suggesting that the two tools presented are reliable and valid and would be suitable for use in trials or in the clinical setting.
de Marco Ario
Full Text Available Abstract Structural characterization of proteins used in biological experiments is largely neglected. In most publications, the information available is totally insufficient to judge the functionality of the proteins used and, therefore, the significance of identified protein-protein interactions (was the interaction specific or due to unspecific binding of misfolded protein regions? or reliability of kinetic and thermodynamic data (how much protein was in its native form?. As a consequence, the results of single experiments might not only become questionable, but the whole reliability of systems biology, built on these fundaments, would be weakened. The introduction of Minimal Information concerning purified proteins to add as metadata to the main body of a manuscript would render straightforward the assessment of their functional and structural qualities and, consequently, of results obtained using these proteins. Furthermore, accepted standards for protein annotation would simplify data comparison and exchange. This article has been envisaged as a proposal for aggregating scientists who share the opinion that the scientific community needs a platform for Minimum Information for Protein Functionality Evaluation (MIPFE.
Shahid, Kamal; Saeed, Aamir; Kristensen, Thomas le Fevre
Time is critical for certain types of dynamic information (e.g. frequency control) in a smart grid scenario. The usefulness of such information depends upon the arrival within a specific frame of time, which in other case may not serve the purpose and effect controller’s performance....... The question is addressed by analyzing the performance of UDP and TCP over imperfect network conditions to show how the selection of transport layer protocol can dramatically affect controller’s performance. This analysis is based on a quality metric called mismatch probability that considers occurrence...
Robert W Youngblood
The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway is a set of activities defined under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The overarching objective of RISMC is to support plant life-extension decision-making by providing a state-of-knowledge characterization of safety margins in key systems, structures, and components (SSCs). A technical challenge at the core of this effort is to establish the conceptual and technical feasibility of analyzing safety margin in a risk-informed way, which, unlike conventionally defined deterministic margin analysis, is founded on probabilistic characterizations of SSC performance.
Droughts arguably cause the most impacts of all natural hazards in terms of the number of people affected and the long-term economic costs and ecosystem stresses. Recent droughts worldwide have caused humanitarian and economic problems such as food insecurity across the Horn of Africa, agricultural economic losses across the central US and loss of livelihoods in rural western India. The prospect of future increases in drought severity and duration driven by projected changes in precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures is worrisome. Some evidence for climate change impacts on drought is already being seen for some regions, such as the Mediterranean and east Africa. Mitigation of the impacts of drought requires advance warning of developing conditions and enactment of drought plans to reduce vulnerability. A key element of this is a drought early warning system that at its heart is the capability to monitor evolving hydrological conditions and water resources storage, and provide reliable and robust predictions out to several months, as well as the capacity to act on this information. At longer time scales, planning and policy-making need to consider the potential impacts of climate change and its impact on drought risk, and do this within the context of natural climate variability, which is likely to dominate any climate change signal over the next few decades. There are several challenges that need to be met to advance our capability to provide both early warning at seasonal time scales and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Advancing our understanding of drought predictability and risk requires knowledge of drought at all time scales. This includes understanding of past drought occurrence, from the paleoclimate record to the recent past, and understanding of drought mechanisms, from initiation, through persistence to recovery and translation of this understanding to predictive models. Current approaches to monitoring and
Mans, R.S.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Russell, N.C.; Bakker, P.J.M.; Moleman, A.J.; Rinderle-Ma, S.; Sadiq, S.; Leymann, F.
Optimal support for complex healthcare processes cannot be provided by a single out-of-the-box Process-Aware Information System and necessitates the construction of customized applications based on these systems. In order to allow for the seamless integration of the new technology into the existing
Ganis, Giorgio; Bridges, David; Hsu, Chun-Wei; Schendan, Haline E
Concealed information tests (CITs) are used to determine whether an individual possesses information about an item of interest. Event-related potential (ERP) measures in CITs have focused almost exclusively on the P3b component, showing that this component is larger when lying about the item of interest (probe) than telling the truth about control items (irrelevants). Recent studies have begun to examine other ERP components, such as the anterior N2, with mixed results. A seminal CIT study found that visual probes elicit a larger anterior N2 than irrelevants (Gamer and Berti, 2010) and suggested that this component indexes cognitive control processes engaged when lying about probes. However, this study did not control for potential intrinsic differences among the stimuli: the same probe and irrelevants were used for all participants, and there was no control condition composed of uninformed participants. Here, first we show that the N2 effect found in the study by Gamer and Berti (2010) was in large part due to stimulus differences, as the effect observed in a concealed information condition was comparable to that found in two matched control conditions without any concealed information (Experiments 1 and 2). Next, we addressed the issue of the generality of the N2 findings by counterbalancing a new set of stimuli across participants and by using a control condition with uninformed participants (Experiment 3). Results show that the probe did not elicit a larger anterior N2 than the irrelevants under these controlled conditions. These findings suggest that caution should be taken in using the N2 as an index of concealed information in CITs. Furthermore, they are a reminder that results of CIT studies (not only with ERPs) performed without stimulus counterbalancing and suitable control conditions may be confounded by differential intrinsic properties of the stimuli employed. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier; Pan, Deng; Fischer, Luzia; Orlowsky, Boris; García-Hernández, Javier; Jordan, Frédéric; Haemmig, Christoph; Zhang, Fangwei; Xu, Jijun
Drought indices based on precipitation are commonly used to identify and characterize droughts. Due to the general complexity of droughts, the comparison of index-identified events with droughts at different levels of the complete system, including soil humidity or river discharges, relies typically on model simulations of the latter, entailing potentially significant uncertainties. The present study explores the potential of using precipitation-based indices to reproduce observed droughts in the lower part of the Jinsha River basin (JRB), proposing an innovative approach for a catchment-wide drought detection and characterization. Two indicators, namely the Overall Drought Extension (ODE) and the Overall Drought Indicator (ODI), have been defined. These indicators aim at identifying and characterizing drought events on the basin scale, using results from four meteorological drought indices (standardized precipitation index, SPI; rainfall anomaly index, RAI; percent of normal precipitation, PN; deciles, DEC) calculated at different locations of the basin and for different timescales. Collected historical information on drought events is used to contrast results obtained with the indicators. This method has been successfully applied to the lower Jinsha River basin in China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts. Historical drought events that occurred from 1960 to 2014 have been compiled and cataloged from different sources, in a challenging process. The analysis of the indicators shows a good agreement with the recorded historical drought events on the basin scale. It has been found that the timescale that best reproduces observed events across all the indices is the 6-month timescale.
Brezgin, V. I.; Brodov, Yu M.; Kultishev, A. Yu
The report presents improvement methods review in the fields of the steam turbine units design and operation based on modern information technologies application. In accordance with the life cycle methodology support, a conceptual model of the information support system during life cycle main stages (LC) of steam turbine unit is suggested. A classifying system, which ensures the creation of sustainable information links between the engineer team (manufacture’s plant) and customer organizations (power plants), is proposed. Within report, the principle of parameterization expansion beyond the geometric constructions at the design and improvement process of steam turbine unit equipment is proposed, studied and justified. The report presents the steam turbine unit equipment design methodology based on the brand new oil-cooler design system that have been developed and implemented by authors. This design system combines the construction subsystem, which is characterized by extensive usage of family tables and templates, and computation subsystem, which includes a methodology for the thermal-hydraulic zone-by-zone oil coolers design calculations. The report presents data about the developed software for operational monitoring, assessment of equipment parameters features as well as its implementation on five power plants.
This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be
Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.
Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.
Raymond, G M; Bassingthwaighte, J B
This is a practical example of a powerful research strategy: putting together data from studies covering a diversity of conditions can yield a scientifically sound grasp of the phenomenon when the individual observations failed to provide definitive understanding. The rationale is that defining a realistic, quantitative, explanatory hypothesis for the whole set of studies, brings about a "consilience" of the often competing hypotheses considered for individual data sets. An internally consistent conjecture linking multiple data sets simultaneously provides stronger evidence on the characteristics of a system than does analysis of individual data sets limited to narrow ranges of conditions. Our example examines three very different data sets on the clearance of salicylic acid from humans: a high concentration set from aspirin overdoses; a set with medium concentrations from a research study on the influences of the route of administration and of sex on the clearance kinetics, and a set on low dose aspirin for cardiovascular health. Three models were tested: (1) a first order reaction, (2) a Michaelis-Menten (M-M) approach, and (3) an enzyme kinetic model with forward and backward reactions. The reaction rates found from model 1 were distinctly different for the three data sets, having no commonality. The M-M model 2 fitted each of the three data sets but gave a reliable estimates of the Michaelis constant only for the medium level data (K m = 24±5.4 mg/L); analyzing the three data sets together with model 2 gave K m = 18±2.6 mg/L. (Estimating parameters using larger numbers of data points in an optimization increases the degrees of freedom, constraining the range of the estimates). Using the enzyme kinetic model (3) increased the number of free parameters but nevertheless improved the goodness of fit to the combined data sets, giving tighter constraints, and a lower estimated K m = 14.6±2.9 mg/L, demonstrating that fitting diverse data sets with a single model
Melchior Jacobsen, Rasmus; Popovski, Petar
the deterministic protocol structure to obtain side information and group the packets from the same meter. We derive the probability of falsely pairing packets from different senders in the simple case of no channel errors, and show through simulation and data from an experimental deployment the probability...... of false pairing with channel errors. The pairing is an essential step towards recovery of metering data from as many as possible meters under harsh channel conditions. From the experiment we find that more than 15% of all conducted pairings are between two erroneous packets, which sets an upper bound...
Durrieu, Geneviève; Gorsse, Elisabeth; Montastruc, Jean-Louis
To study the coverage by French newspapers of doping in sports, we performed a systematic review of articles appearing between January and March 2003 on the following French websites: L'Equipe, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Libération, La Dépêche du Midi and Agence France-Presse (AFP). We recorded a total of 58 articles about doping. Among them, 48 (83%) were collected from the AFP news. L'Equipe, a French sports newspaper, published seven articles (12%). Most of the recorded data reported results of worldwide antidoping control (71%). No information about new drugs was found. The analysis of the selected articles pointed out the following: (i) the seriousness of observations related to doping since, during this 3-month period, we noted two deaths of athletes; (ii) the risks associated with the use of dietary supplements, particularly products including amphetamine derivatives; (iii) the interest in judicial investigation as an information source about doping in sports (investigation of suspicious deaths of Italian football players); and (iv) identification of the sports involved in doping (cycling, but also athletics, football, rugby). Systematic analysis of newspaper reports can be considered as a relevant method for monitoring the pharmacovigilance and pharmacoepidemiology of doping in sports.
Szilágyi, Tünde; Brady, Michael
Image-based medical diagnosis typically relies on the (poorly reproducible) subjective classification of textures in order to differentiate between diseased and healthy pathology. Clinicians claim that significant benefits would arise from quantitative measures to inform clinical decision making. The first step in generating such measures is to extract local image descriptors - from noise corrupted and often spatially and temporally coarse resolution medical signals - that are invariant to illumination, translation, scale and rotation of the features. The Dual-Tree Complex Wavelet Transform (DT-CWT) provides a wavelet multiresolution analysis (WMRA) tool e.g. in 2D with good properties, but has limited rotational selectivity. Also, it requires computationally-intensive steering due to the inherently 1D operations performed. The monogenic signal, which is defined in n >= 2D with the Riesz transform gives excellent orientation information without the need for steering. Recent work has suggested the Monogenic Riesz-Laplace wavelet transform as a possible tool for integrating these two concepts into a coherent mathematical framework. We have found that the proposed construction suffers from a lack of rotational invariance and is not optimal for retrieving local image descriptors. In this paper we show: 1. Local frequency and local phase from the monogenic signal are not equivalent, especially in the phase congruency model of a "feature", and so they are not interchangeable for medical image applications. 2. The accuracy of local phase computation may be improved by estimating the denoising parameters while maximizing a new measure of "featureness".
Eduardo ROMERO SÁNCHEZ
Full Text Available This article pretend to describe the principal social trends and cultural features that prevail today, too look the philosophical foundation of thinking, feel , living and to give an educative response and accepted to the axiological reality and cultural present. In modern western societies great paradoxes and contradictions coexist: economical growth, technological development and greater dimensions of freedom, but also great consumption, cultural deterioration, technological dependence and unique thought. Given this we talk about the great possibilities and at the same time of the terrible threats that exist in that modern information societies. In order to become acquainted with this reality, we have focused the analysis in 3 key aspects: the impact of digital devolution, the condition of culture in contemporary society, and the need of a “new education”.
Full Text Available To better understand information about human health from databases we analyzed three datasets collected for different purposes in Canada: a biomedical database of older adults, a large population survey across all adult ages, and vital statistics. Redundancy in the variables was established, and this led us to derive a generalized (macroscopic state variable, being a fitness/frailty index that reflects both individual and group health status. Evaluation of the relationship between fitness/frailty and the mortality rate revealed that the latter could be expressed in terms of variables generally available from any cross-sectional database. In practical terms, this means that the risk of mortality might readily be assessed from standard biomedical appraisals collected for other purposes.
Borghi, Anna; Rienzner, Michele; Gandolfi, Claudio; Facchi, Arianna
Drought is a major cause of crop yield loss, both in rainfed and irrigated agroecosystems. In past decades, many approaches have been developed to assess agricultural drought, usually based on the monitoring or modelling of the soil water content condition. All these indices show weaknesses when applied for a real time drought monitoring and management at the local scale, since they do not consider explicitly crops and soil properties at an adequate spatial resolution. This work describes a newly developed agricultural drought index, called Transpirative Deficit Index (D-TDI), and assesses the results of its application over a study area of about 210 km2 within the Po River Plain (northern Italy). The index is based on transforming the interannual distribution of the transpirative deficit (potential crop transpiration minus actual transpiration), calculated daily by means of a spatially distributed conceptual hydrological model and cumulated over user-selected time-steps, to a standard normal distribution (following the approach proposed by the meteorological index SPI - Standard Precipitation Index). For the application to the study area a uniform maize crop cover (maize is the most widespread crop in the area) and 22-year (1993-2014) meteorological data series were considered. Simulation results consist in maps of the index cumulated over 10-day time steps over a mesh with cells of 250 m. A correlation analysis was carried out (1) to study the characteristics and the memory of D-TDI and to assess its intra- and inter-annual variability, (2) to assess the response of the agricultural drought (i.e., the information provided by D-TDI) to the meteorological drought computed through the SPI over different temporal steps. The D-TDI is positively auto-correlated with a persistence of 30 days, and positively cross-correlated to the SPI with a persistence of 40 days, demonstrating that D-TDI responds to meteorological forcing. Correlation analyses demonstrate that soils
Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong
This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is the most common cause of cancer-related deaths among women worldwide. The aim of the present study was to determine and compare knowledge, behavior and attitudes among female nurses and teachers concerning breast self-examination (BSE. Methods Two-hundred and eighty nine women working in Aydin, Turkey (125 nurses and 164 teachers were included in the study. The data were collected using a questionnaire designed to measure the knowledge, attitudes and behavior of the groups. Analysis involved percentiles, χ2 tests, t tests and factor analysis. Results The knowledge of nurses about BSE was higher than that of teachers (81.5% versus 45.1%; p 0.05, whereas skills in performing self-examination were higher in nurses (p Conclusion We conclude that nurses and teachers should be supported with information enabling them to accomplish their roles in the community. To improve BSE practice, it is crucial to coordinate continuous and planned education.
Miller, Brian W; Leslie, Paul W; McCabe, J Terrence
Analyzing people's decisions can reveal key variables that affect their behaviors. Despite the demonstrated utility of this approach, it has not been applied to livelihood decisions in the context of conservation initiatives. We used ethnographic decision modeling in combination with qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to examine the herding decisions of Maasai households living near Tarangire National Park (TNP) during recent and historical droughts. The effects of the establishment of TNP on herding practices during drought were different than anticipated based on the size and reliability of several prominent resource areas that are now within the park. We found little evidence of people relying on these swamps and rivers for watering cattle during historical droughts; rather, these sites were more commonly used as grazing areas for small stock and wet-season grazing areas for cattle to avoid disease carried by calving wildebeest. Yet during the 2009 drought, many herders moved their livestock - especially cattle from outside of the study area - toward TNP in search of grazing. Our analysis of herding decisions demonstrates that resource-use decisions are complex and incorporate a variety of information beyond the size or reliability of a given resource area, including contextual factors (e.g., disease, conflict, grazing) and household factors (e.g., social capital, labor, herd size). More broadly, this research illustrates that pairing decision modeling with QCA is a structured approach to identifying these factors and understanding how opportunities, constraints, and perceptions influence how people respond to changes in resource access.
McNab, Alan L.
Drought is a complex phenomenon that can be defined from several perspectives [Wilhite and Glantz, 1987]. The common characteristic and central idea of these perspectives is the straightforward notion of a water deficit. Complexity arises because of the need to specify the part of the hydrologic cycle experiencing the deficit and the associated time period. For example, a long-term deficit in deep groundwater storage can occur simultaneously with a short-term surplus of root zone soil water.Figure 1 [Changnon, 1987] illustrates how the definitions of drought are related to specific components of the hydrologic cycle. The dashed lines indicate the delayed translation of two hypothetical precipitation deficits with respect to runoff, soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater. From this perspective, precipitation can be considered as the carrier of the drought signal, and hydrological processes are among the final indicators that reveal the presence of drought [Hare, 1987; Klemes, 1987].
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — PDSI from the Dai dataset. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is devised by Palmer (1965) to represent the severity of dry and wet spells over the U.S. based...
Marco Antonio Figueiredo Milani Filho
Full Text Available Benford's Law (BL is a logarithmic distribution which is useful to detect abnormal patterns of digits in number sets. It is often used as a primary data auditing method for detecting traces of errors, illegal practices or undesired occurrences, such as fraud and earning management. In this descriptive study, I analyzed the financial information (revenue and expenditure of the registered charitable hospitals located in Ontario and Quebec, which have the majority (71.4% of these organizations within Canada. The aim of this study was to verify the reliability of the financial data of the respective hospitals, using the probability distribution predicted by Benford’s Law as a proxy of reliability. The sample was composed by 1,334 observations related to 339 entities operating in the tax year 2009 and 328 entities in 2010, gathered from the Canada Revenue Agency’s database. To analyze the discrepancies between the actual and expected frequencies of the significant-digit, two statistics were calculated: Z-test and Pearson’s chi-square test. The results show that, with a confidence level of 95%, the data set of the organizations located in Ontario and Quebec have similar distribution to the BL, suggesting that, in a preliminary analysis, their financial data are free from bias.
The science and dynamics underlying drought is complex, yet understandable if approached carefully using scientific method. In this paper, scientific perspective was applied to explain and compare drought indices in Somalia and Lake Chad Basin (LCB). Geographic information system (GIS) was used to analyze ...
Kim, Jong Hyun; Dang, Vinh N
This paper discusses the potential impacts of two advanced features of digital control rooms, alarm systems and information display systems, on the Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in nuclear power plants. Although the features of digital control rooms have already been implemented in new or upgraded nuclear power plants, HRAs have so far not taken much credit for these features. In this circumstance, this paper aims at examining the potential effects of these features on human performance and discussing how these effects can be addressed with existing HRA methods. A conclusion derivable from past experimental studies is that those features are supportive in the severe conditions such as complex scenarios and knowledge-based works. However, in the less complex scenarios and rule-based work, they may have no difference with or sometimes negative impacts on operator performance. The discussion about the impact on the HRA is provided on the basis on the THERP method
Stewart, R. E.
employment losses exceeded 41,000 jobs for 2001 and 2002. This drought also contributed to a negative or zero net farm income for several provinces for the first time in 25 years with agricultural production over Canada dropping an estimated 3.6 billion in 2001/2002. Previously reliable water supplies such as streams, wetlands, dugouts, reservoirs, and groundwater were placed under stress and often failed. Despite their enormous economic, environmental, and societal impacts, there has never been a coordinated and integrated drought research program in Canada. To begin to address these issues related to drought, the Drought Research Initiative, DRI was established. The overall objective of DRI is "to better understand the physical characteristics of and processes influencing Canadian Prairie droughts, and to contribute to their better prediction, through a focus on the recent severe drought that began in 1999 and largely ended in 2005". DRI is focused on five research objectives: 1. Quantify the physical features of this recent drought 2. Improve the understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing the formation, evolution, cessation and structure of the drought 3. Assess and reduce uncertainties in the prediction of drought and its structure 4. Compare the similarities and differences of the recent drought to previous and future droughts 5. Apply progress to address critical issues of importance to society Major progress is being made within each of these research areas. These coordinated studies furthermore represent an essential step towards our ultimate goal which is to better assess whether there will be more droughts in the future over this region due to climate change, what features these droughts will exhibit, and how we can best prepare for them. The focus of these activities is on changes to occur over the next several decades and significant progress is being made in addressing these issues as well. The purpose of this presentation is to provide an overview
McIntosh, Heather M; Calvert, Julie; Macpherson, Karen J; Thompson, Lorna
Rapid review has become widely adopted by health technology assessment agencies in response to demand for evidence-based information to support imperative decisions. Concern about the credibility of rapid reviews and the reliability of their findings has prompted a call for wider publication of their methods. In publishing this overview of the accredited rapid review process developed by Healthcare Improvement Scotland, we aim to raise awareness of our methods and advance the discourse on best practice. Healthcare Improvement Scotland produces rapid reviews called evidence notes using a process that has achieved external accreditation through the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Key components include a structured approach to topic selection, initial scoping, considered stakeholder involvement, streamlined systematic review, internal quality assurance, external peer review and updating. The process was introduced in 2010 and continues to be refined over time in response to user feedback and operational experience. Decision-makers value the responsiveness of the process and perceive it as being a credible source of unbiased evidence-based information supporting advice for NHSScotland. Many agencies undertaking rapid reviews are striving to balance efficiency with methodological rigour. We agree that there is a need for methodological guidance and that it should be informed by better understanding of current approaches and the consequences of different approaches to streamlining systematic review methods. Greater transparency in the reporting of rapid review methods is essential to enable that to happen.
Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.; Chae, Y.
This study aims to how well the ecological drought index can capture the drought status in the East Asia. We estimated the drought severe index (DSI), which uses the evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggested by Mu et al. (2013) to define the ecological drought. In addition, the meteorological drought index, which is standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI), are estimated and compared to the DSI. The satellite data by moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) are used to analyze the DSI and the monthly precipitation and temperature data in the climate research unit (CRU) are applied to estimate the SPEI for 2000-2013 in the East Asia. We conducted the statistical analyses to investigate the drought characteristics of the ecological and meteorological drought indices (i.e. the DSI and SPEI, respectively) and then compared those characteristics drought indices depending on the drought status. We found the DSI did not well captured the drought status when the categories originally suggested by Mu et al. (2013) are applied to divide the drought status in the study area. Consequently, the modified categories for the DSI in this study is suggested and then applied to define the drought status. The modified categories in this study show the great improvement to capture the drought status in the East Asia even though the results cannot be acquired around Taklamakan desert due to the lack of the satellite data. These results illustrate the ecological drought index, such as the DSI, can be applied for the monitoring of the drought in the East Asia and then can give the detailed information of drought status because the satellite data have the relatively high spatial resolutions compared to the observations such as the CRU data. Reference Mu Q, Zhao M, Kimball JS, McDowell NG, Running SW (2013) A remotely sensed global
Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin
Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.
some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions and a decrease in streamflow drought occurrence for some of the catchments with either reservoirs or groundwater abstractions. In conclusion, the proposed screening approaches were sometimes successful in identifying streamflow records with deviating drought characteristics that are likely related to different human influences. However, a quantitative attribution of the impact of human influences on streamflow drought characteristics requires more detailed case-by-case information about the type and degree of all different human influences. Given that, in many countries, such information is often not readily accessible, the approaches adopted here could provide useful in targeting future efforts. In England and Wales specifically, the catchments with deviating streamflow drought characteristics identified in this study could serve as the starting point of detailed case study research.
Tijdeman, Erik; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin
catchments affected by groundwater abstractions and a decrease in streamflow drought occurrence for some of the catchments with either reservoirs or groundwater abstractions. In conclusion, the proposed screening approaches were sometimes successful in identifying streamflow records with deviating drought characteristics that are likely related to different human influences. However, a quantitative attribution of the impact of human influences on streamflow drought characteristics requires more detailed case-by-case information about the type and degree of all different human influences. Given that, in many countries, such information is often not readily accessible, the approaches adopted here could provide useful in targeting future efforts. In England and Wales specifically, the catchments with deviating streamflow drought characteristics identified in this study could serve as the starting point of detailed case study research.
Geli, H. M. E.; Jedd, T.; Svoboda, M.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.; Neale, C. M. U.; Hain, C.; Anderson, M. C.
The recent and frequent drought events in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) create an urgent need for scientists, stakeholders, and decision makers to improve the understanding of drought in order to mitigate its effects. It is well documented that drought is not caused by meteorological or hydrological conditions alone; social, economic, and political governance factors play a large part in whether the components in a water supply system are balanced. In the MENA region, for example, agricultural production can place a significant burden on water supply systems. Understanding the connection between drought and agricultural production is an important first step in developing a sound drought monitoring and mitigation system that links physical indicators with on-the-ground impacts. Drought affect crop yield, livestock health, and water resources availability, among others. A clear depiction of drought onset, duration and severity is essential to provide valuable information to adapt and mitigate drought impact. Therefore, it is important that to be able to connect and evaluate scientific drought data and informational products with societal impact data to more effectively initiate mitigation actions. This approach will further the development of drought maps that are tailored and responsive to immediate and specific societal needs for a region or country. Within the context of developing and evaluating drought impacts maps for the MENA region, this analysis investigates the use of different drought indices and indicators including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, land surface temperature (LST), and Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) for their ability to characterize historic drought events in Tunisia. Evaluation of a "drought map" product is conducted using data at the county level including crop yield, precipitation, in-country interviews with drought monitoring experts and agricultural
Ojima, D. S.; Senay, G. B.; McNeeley, S.; Morisette, J. T.
and fall affecting soil moisture conditions. These results are being used to inform managers in our region about recent climate trends regarding drought impacts and provide a basis for further co-design efforts of research to action strategies with resource managers and stakeholders in the region.
Ferguson, D. B.; Masayesva, A.; Meadow, A. M.; Crimmins, M.
Drought monitoring and drought planning are complex endeavors. Measures of precipitation or streamflow provide little context for understanding how social and environmental systems impacted by drought are responding. In arid and semi-arid regions of the world, this challenge is particularly acute since social-ecological systems are already well-adapted to dry conditions. Understanding what drought means in these regions is an important first step in developing a decision-relevant monitoring system. Traditional drought indices may be of some use, but local observations may ultimately be more relevant for informing difficult decisions in response to unusually dry conditions. This presentation will focus on insights gained from a collaborative project between the University of Arizona and the Hopi Tribe-a Native American community in the U.S. Southwest-to develop a drought information system that is responsive to local needs. The primary goal of the project was to develop a system that: is based on how drought is experienced by Hopi citizens and resource managers, can incorporate local observations of drought impacts as well as conventional indicators, and brings together local expertise with conventional science-based observations. This kind of drought monitoring system can harnesses as much available information as possible to inform resource managers, political leaders, and citizens about drought conditions, but such a system can also engage these local drought stakeholders in observing, thinking about, and helping guide planning for drought.
In drought prone areas of Ethiopia, maize is produced by small-scale farmers' where additional inputs are rarely applied. Although genetic tolerance is recommended for moisture stress, there is limited information on drought-tolerant genotypes reaction to variable environments. In this study, eight drought tolerant lines and ...
Regan, Annette K; Gibbs, Robyn A; Effler, Paul V
To evaluate the reliability of information in general practice (GP) electronic health records (EHRs), 2100 adult patients were randomly selected for interview regarding the presence of specific medical conditions and recent influenza vaccination. Agreement between self-report and data extracted from EHRs was compared using Cohen's kappa coefficient (k) and interpreted in accordance with Altman's Kappa Benchmarking criteria; 377 (18%) patients declined participation, and 608 (29%) could not be contacted. Of 1115 (53%) remaining, 856 (77%) were active patients (≥3 visits to the GP practice in the last two years) who provided complete information for analysis. Although a higher proportion of patients self-reported being vaccinated or having a medical condition compared to the EHR (50.7% vs 36.9%, and 39.4% vs 30.3%, respectively), there was "good" agreement between self-report and EHR for both vaccination status (κ = 0.67) and medical conditions (κ = 0.66). These findings suggest EHR may be useful for public health surveillance. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Koffler, Daniel
Studying hydrological drought (a below-normal water availability in groundwater, lakes and streams) is important to society and the ecosystem, but can also reveal interesting information about catchment functioning. This information can later be used for predicting drought in ungauged basins and to inform water management decisions. In this study, we used an extensive Austrian dataset of discharge measurements in clusters of catchments and combine this dataset with thematic information on climate and catchment properties. Our aim was to study the relative effects of climate and catchment characteristics on drought duration and deficit and on hydrological drought typology. Because the climate of the region is roughly uniform, our hypothesis was that the effect of differences of catchment properties would stand out. From time series of precipitation and discharge we identified droughts with the widely-used threshold level approach, defining a drought when a variable falls below a pre-defined threshold representing the regime. Drought characteristics that were analysed are drought duration and deficit. We also applied the typology of Van Loon & Van Lanen (2012). To explain differences in drought characteristics between catchments we did a correlation analysis with climate and catchment characteristics, based on Pearson correlation. We found very interesting patterns in the correlations of drought characteristics with climate and catchment properties: 1) Droughts with long duration (mean and maximum) and composite droughts are related to catchments with a high BFI (high baseflow) and a high percentage of shallow groundwater tables. 2) The deficit (mean and maximum) of both meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts is strongly related to catchment humidity, in this case quantified by average annual precipitation. 3) The hydrological drought types that are related to snow, i.e. cold snow season drought and snow melt drought, occur in catchments that are have a
(magnitude. These results emphasize that drought is a hazard which leaves different footprints on the various components of the water cycle at different spatial and temporal scales. The difference in the dynamic development of meteorological and hydrological drought also implies that impacts on various water-use sectors and river ecology cannot be informed by climate indices alone. Thus, an assessment of drought impacts on water resources requires hydrological data in addition to drought indices based solely on climate data. The transboundary scale of the event also suggests that additional efforts need to be undertaken to make timely pan-European hydrological assessments more operational in the future.
Full Text Available Long records (1960–2013 of monthly streamflow observations from 8 hydrological stations in the East Asian monsoon region are modeled using a nonstationarity framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS. Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarity of monthly streamflow series in different geographic regions and to select optimal distribution among five two-parameter distributions (Gamma, Lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull and Logistic. Based on the optimal nonstationarity distribution, a time-dependent Standardized Streamflow Index (denoted SSIvar that takes account of the possible nonstationarity in streamflow series is constructed and then employed to identify drought characteristics at different time scales (at a 3-month scale and a 12-month scale in the eight selected catchments during 1960–2013 for comparison. Results of GAMLSS models indicate that they are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the monthly streamflow series with distribution parameters that are a linear function of time. For 8 hydrological stations in different geographic regions, a noticeable difference is observed between the historical drought assessment of Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI and SSIvar, indicating that the nonstationarity could not be ignored in the hydrological drought analyses, especially for stations with change point and significant change trends. The constructed SSIvar is, to some extent, found to be more reliable and suitable for regional drought monitoring than traditional SSI in a changing environment, thereby providing a feasible alternative for drought forecasting and water resource management at different time scales.
This book is a collection of selected papers from the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Droughts entitled “Drought Impact Control Technology,” held at the National Laboratory of Civil Engineering in Lisbon, Portugal, in June 1980. The editors of the book have chosen a nontraditional but successful approach to presenting the papers. Instead of including a verbatim proceedings of the institute, they assembled 21 papers presented by 14 of the institute's lecturers, reshaped and synthesized them, and supplemented them by five new papers that cover obvious gaps in topics. The result is enlightening reading and a more or less complete presentation of the subject. The edited material in the book was arranged around three central themes related to efforts needed to cope with or manage the droughts. In the process, the identity of individual contributors has been preserved.
This book resulted from the activity of Task Force 4.2 - 'Human Reliability'. This group was established on February 27th, 1986, at the plenary meeting of the Technical Reliability Committee of VDI, within the framework of the joint committee of VDI on industrial systems technology - GIS. It is composed of representatives of industry, representatives of research institutes, of technical control boards and universities, whose job it is to study how man fits into the technical side of the world of work and to optimize this interaction. In a total of 17 sessions, information from the part of ergonomy dealing with human reliability in using technical systems at work was exchanged, and different methods for its evaluation were examined and analyzed. The outcome of this work was systematized and compiled in this book. (orig.) [de
This paper discusses a drought preparedness study being conducted for the Cedar River and Green River basins in western Washington state. The study is one of four regional case studies being managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as part of the National Study of Water Management During Drought. The overriding objective of the drought preparedness study is to leave the region better prepared for drought, through demonstration and test of drought preparedness tools and strategies. The study has served as a vehicle to promote a greater regional focus on drought related water supply problem solving. The 1992 drought in the Seattle/Tacoma metropolitan area provided a unique opportunity for the study team to demonstrate approaches to drought management being researched and tested as part of the study
N A Kovyazina; N A Alhutova; N N Zybina; N M Kalinina
The goal of the study was to demonstrate the multilevel laboratory quality management system and point at the methods of estimating the reliability and increasing the amount of information content of the laboratory results (on the example of the laboratory case). Results. The article examines the stages of laboratory quality management which has helped to estimate the reliability of the results of determining Free T3, Free T4 and TSH. The measurement results are presented by the expanded unce...
Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian
Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.
Bressers, Nanny; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Larrue, Corinne; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne
This book is about governance for drought resilience. But that simple sentence alone might rouse several questions. Because what do we mean with drought, and how does that relate to water scarcity? And what do we mean with resilience, and why is resilience needed for tackling drought? And how does
Shaik, Muhammad Amin; Xu, Xin; Chan, Qun Lin; Hui, Richard Jor Yeong; Chong, Steven Shih Tsze; Chen, Christopher Li-Hsian; Dong, YanHong
The validity and reliability of the informant AD8 in primary healthcare has not been established. Therefore, the present study examined the validity and reliability of the informant AD8 in government subsidized primary healthcare centers in Singapore. Eligible patients (≥60 years old) were recruited from primary healthcare centers and their informants received the AD8. Patient-informant dyads who agreed for further cognitive assessments received the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), and a locally validated formal neuropsychological battery at a research center in a tertiary hospital. 1,082 informants completed AD8 assessment at two primary healthcare centers. Of these, 309 patients-informant dyads were further assessed, of whom 243 (78.6%) were CDR = 0; 22 (7.1%) were CDR = 0.5; and 44 (14.2%) were CDR≥1. The mean administration time of the informant AD8 was 2.3 ± 1.0 minutes. The informant AD8 demonstrated good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.85); inter-rater reliability (Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) = 0.85); and test-retest reliability (weighted κ = 0.80). Concurrent validity, as measured by the correlation between total AD8 scores and CDR global (R = 0.65, p validity, as measured by convergent validity (R ≥ 0.4) between individual items of AD8 with CDR and neuropsychological domains was acceptable. The informant AD8 demonstrated good concurrent and construct validity and is a reliable measure to detect cognitive dysfunction in primary healthcare.
PREP KITT, System Reliability by Fault Tree Analysis. PREP, Min Path Set and Min Cut Set for Fault Tree Analysis, Monte-Carlo Method. KITT, Component and System Reliability Information from Kinetic Fault Tree Theory
Vesely, W.E.; Narum, R.E.
1 - Description of problem or function: The PREP/KITT computer program package obtains system reliability information from a system fault tree. The PREP program finds the minimal cut sets and/or the minimal path sets of the system fault tree. (A minimal cut set is a smallest set of components such that if all the components are simultaneously failed the system is failed. A minimal path set is a smallest set of components such that if all of the components are simultaneously functioning the system is functioning.) The KITT programs determine reliability information for the components of each minimal cut or path set, for each minimal cut or path set, and for the system. Exact, time-dependent reliability information is determined for each component and for each minimal cut set or path set. For the system, reliability results are obtained by upper bound approximations or by a bracketing procedure in which various upper and lower bounds may be obtained as close to one another as desired. The KITT programs can handle independent components which are non-repairable or which have a constant repair time. Any assortment of non-repairable components and components having constant repair times can be considered. Any inhibit conditions having constant probabilities of occurrence can be handled. The failure intensity of each component is assumed to be constant with respect to time. The KITT2 program can also handle components which during different time intervals, called phases, may have different reliability properties. 2 - Method of solution: The PREP program obtains minimal cut sets by either direct deterministic testing or by an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm. The minimal path sets are obtained using the Monte Carlo algorithm. The reliability information is obtained by the KITT programs from numerical solution of the simple integral balance equations of kinetic tree theory. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The PREP program will obtain the minimal cut and
Timmermans, Joris; Asadollahi Dolatabad, Saeid
for monitoring crop health during the severe drought events. The presentation will provide results of the investigation into Droughts using time series of coarse resolution daily evapotranspiration produced from the SEBS remote sensing model, on basis of MODIS data. The evapotranspiration will be converted into drought severity using the evapotranspiration deficit index (ETDI). Afterwards the disaggregation to plot scale will be investigated. This disaggregation will be performed as a weighted filtering on basis of crop-coefficient at high resolution. These growth stage of the vegeation (needed for the estimation of the crop coefficients) are estimated on basis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Landsat 5,7 and 8 observations. The final result of the research provides good statistical information about drought resilience and crop health.
Mubako, S. T.; Hargrove, W. L.
The Elephant Butte and Caballo dams form the largest surface water reservoirs in the Middle Rio Grande basin. The basin supports more than 2 million people, including the major urban centers of Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico, El Paso, Texas, and Las Cruces, New Mexico, plus more than 70,000 ha of land with water rights for irrigated agriculture. However, this region has experienced severe droughts and growing water demand over the past few decades. This study applied GIS and remote sensing techniques to (1) quantify the shrinking and expansion of the reservoirs for the 44-year period 1973-2017; (2) demonstrate the use of multispectral satellite imagery for qualitative assessment of reservoir water turbidity; and (3) investigate and compare annual and seasonal variability of reservoir temperature. Our preliminary results show apparent shrinkage and recovery cycles of both reservoirs, depending on annual inflow and diversion cycles. For example, the period 1981 to 1993 was unusually `wet' on average, in contrast to the period around September 2002 when the Elephant Butte reservoir shrinked to less than 11 percent of its capacity due to drought. Water in the reservoirs appears more turbid in the fall compared to the summer season, and satellite images showed distinctive zones of deep and shallow water, with evident sedimentation near the in-flow of each reservoir. Examination of image digital numbers revealed the following three distinct temperature zones: scrub environment around the reservoirs, very shallow water around reservoir edges, and deeper reservoir water. The zones were represented by a higher range of digital numbers in the summer in comparison to the fall season, indicating greater surface temperature variability in the summer season. The distinction between high summer temperatures and low fall temperatures was especially prominent along the shallow edges of each reservoir. The fluctuating thermal patterns can be explained by variations in depth
The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized. While considerable research on the climatological aspect of droughts has been conducted, studies on the resilience of human communities to the effects of drought remain limited. Understanding how different communities respond to and recover from the drought hazard, i.e. their community resilience, should inform the development of better strategies to cope with the hazard. This research assesses community resilience to drought hazard in South-Central U.S. and captures the temporal changes of community resilience in the region facing the climate change. First, the study applies the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) framework using the existing drought incidence, crop damage, socio-economic and food-water-energy nexus variables, which allows to assign county-level resilience scores in the study region and derive variables contributing to the resilience. Second, it captures the temporal changes in community resilience by using the model extracted from the RIM study and socio-economic data from several consecutive time periods. The resilience measurement study should help understand the complex process underlying communities' response to the drought impacts. The results identify gaps in resilience planning and help the improvement of the community resilience to the droughts of increasing frequency and intensity.
Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; J Cheng, June; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth
Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.
Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; Cheng, June J.; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth
Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health. PMID:26193300
Van Loon, Anne; Van Lanen, Henny; Gleeson, Tom
Drought is commonly defined as a temporary lack of water compared to normal conditions. In the traditional definition used in the natural sciences (climate science, hydrology, earth science) only natural drivers are included and the human effect on water resources is excluded. Drought impact studies, however, using observed crop yields, wildfire data, reservoir information, etc., can hardy make this division. The interdisciplinarity of drought asks for a broader definition that considers the interplay between the hazard, impacts and management. In flood research, human effects on the volume and timing of the flood event are traditionally taken into account and there is the awareness that human factors like channel modification, land surface changes and water supply engineering can both intensify and reduce flooding. Drought researchers can learn from the flooding community and try to elucidate the effects of human factors on drought duration and severity. This is not only a necessary step to answer relevant societal questions in the anthropocene, but also the IAHS Panta Rhei initiative urges hydrologists to include the connection with human systems. We propose a paradigm shift in the definition of drought, namely to expand it to include the effects of human action. Here, we will present a conceptual diagram that will do justice to the interdisciplinarity of drought. We will discuss the complex interconnected system of climate - hydrology - society - ecosystem and which processes in that system are most relevant to take into consideration when studying drought. The revised definition provides recognition and a common ground to researchers in all fields of research and is better aligned with drought impacts and with stakeholders' and policy maker's views on drought. We will also go into some of the pitfalls and challenges that come with applying this revised definition. For example, the natural and human-induced processes related to drought can have different scales
Liu, Z.; LU, G.; He, H.; Wu, Z.; He, J.
Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for seasonal water management. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we develop a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric/oceanic Standardized Anomalies (SA). It is essentially the synchronous stepwise regression relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric/oceanic SA-based predictors and 3-month SPI updated daily (SPI3). It is forced with forecasted atmospheric and oceanic variables retrieved from seasonal climate forecast systems, and it can make seamless drought prediction for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Simulation and prediction of four severe seasonal regional drought processes in China were forced with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) operationally forecasted datasets, respectively. With the help of real-time correction for operational application, model application during four recent severe regional drought events in China revealed that the model is good at development prediction but weak in severity prediction. In addition to weakness in prediction of drought peak, the prediction of drought relief is possible to be predicted as drought recession. This weak performance may be associated with precipitation-causing weather patterns during drought relief. Based on initial virtual analysis on predicted 90-day prospective SPI3 curves, it shows that the 2009/2010 drought in Southwest China and 2014 drought in North China can be predicted and simulated well even for the prospective 1-75 day. In comparison, the prospective 1-45 day may be a feasible and acceptable lead time for simulation and prediction of the 2011 droughts in Southwest China and East China, after which the simulated and predicted developments clearly change.
Zimmerman, Tammy M.; Risser, Dennis W.
This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey, to determine drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania. Because all or parts of southeastern Pennsylvania have been in drought-warning or drought-emergency status during 6 of the past 10 years from 1994 through 2004, this information should aid well owners, drillers, and water-resource managers in guiding appropriate well construction and sustainable use of Pennsylvania's water resources. 'Drought-sensitive' aquifer settings are defined for this study as areas unable to supply adequate quantities of water to wells during drought. Using information from previous investigations and a knowledge of the hydrogeology and topography of the study area, drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania were hypothesized as being associated with two factors - a water-table decline (WTD) index and topographic setting. The WTD index is an estimate of the theoretical water-table decline at the ground-water divide for a hypothetical aquifer with idealized geometry. The index shows the magnitude of ground-water decline after cessation of recharge is a function of (1) distance from stream to divide, (2) ground-water recharge rate, (3) transmissivity, (4) specific yield, and (5) duration of the drought. WTD indices were developed for 39 aquifers that were subsequently grouped into categories of high, moderate, and low WTD index. Drought-sensitive settings determined from the hypothesized factors were compared to locations of wells known to have been affected (gone dry, replaced, or deepened) during recent droughts. Information collected from well owners, drillers, and public agencies identified 2,016 wells affected by drought during 1998-2002. Most of the available data on the location of drought-affected wells in the study area were
...] Electric Reliability Organization Proposal To Retire Requirements in Reliability Standards AGENCY: Federal... Reliability Standards identified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the Commission-certified Electric Reliability Organization. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kevin Ryan (Legal Information...
Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R
A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum . This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.
Full Text Available Proactive drought preparedness is a challenge for a variety of physical, institutional, and social reasons. Significant progress has been made in monitoring and forecasting water deficits, both temporally and spatially. However, less progress has been made in translating this information into proactive decision-making frameworks to support drought preparedness. The Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT, a simulation adaptation framework developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, is a recent innovation that supports drought preparedness efforts. The IDT provides a mechanism for presenting physical science information to decision makers across a variety of educational levels and professional backgrounds, in a way that allows for peer-to-peer education and synthesis. Second, the game simulation environment allows players to integrate this information into economic, policy and institutional frameworks in a non-threatening manner. Third, it maintains realism by constraining players׳ risk management options via a budget, the physical realities of the drought presented, and the technical expertise of the ‘referees’. Post-game follow-up allows players to explore lessons learned and to identify topics that warrant further in-depth exploration of policy options and subsequent implementation. The game provides an interim step between recognition of the risk posed by drought hazards and the actual implementation of vulnerability-reduction actions. This allows for a broad discussion within a sports-themed process that provides room for reflection and a richer understanding of the issues that must be addressed to ensure drought preparedness actions are effective.
Lee, Sang Yong
This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.
N A Kovyazina
Full Text Available The goal of the study was to demonstrate the multilevel laboratory quality management system and point at the methods of estimating the reliability and increasing the amount of information content of the laboratory results (on the example of the laboratory case. Results. The article examines the stages of laboratory quality management which has helped to estimate the reliability of the results of determining Free T3, Free T4 and TSH. The measurement results are presented by the expanded uncertainty and the evaluation of the dynamics. Conclusion. Compliance with mandatory measures for laboratory quality management system enables laboratories to obtain reliable results and calculate the parameters that are able to increase the amount of information content of laboratory tests in clinical decision making.
Yu, J.; Lee, K. S.
Drought, as one of the severest disasters in the world, have attracted the attention of researchers and general public. Sometimes even short, intense droughts can cause significant damages to the natural environment as well as the economy. In recent years, North Korea (NK) has been suffering severe droughts. Yet, the thorough field investigation of drought disaster conditions in NK is impossible now. Thus, it is necessary to get more information of drought conditions to restore the damaged environment in NK after unification. RS data can be used to monitor vegetation, bare soil conditions, especially in inaccessible regions. This information can be used to derive spatial variation of drought conditions. Thus, the spatiotemporal pattern of drought conditions in NK using multi-sensor RS data and available meteorological data were investigated in this study. The RS data---MODIS NDVI (MOD13A3) and LST (Land Surface Temperature) (MOD11A2) from 2000 to 2014 which obtain the vegetation health conditions were used to derive two operationally used agricultural drought indices: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI). The in-situ precipitation data from 27 weather stations from 1981 to 2014 were used for identifying the relative dry/wet years and acquiring meteorological drought index Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The correlations between the agricultural drought indices and metrological drought index were derived. These data were stored in GIS and used for spatial analysis to figure out the spatiotemporal pattern of drought in NK. The spatiotemporal information of NK drought in this study can provide the basic information for restoring the drought damaged field after the unification of Korea.
Want to buy some reliability? The question would have been unthinkable in some markets served by the natural gas business even a few years ago, but in the new gas marketplace, industrial, commercial and even some residential customers have the opportunity to choose from among an array of options about the kind of natural gas service they need--and are willing to pay for. The complexities of this brave new world of restructuring and competition have sent the industry scrambling to find ways to educate and inform its customers about the increased responsibility they will have in determining the level of gas reliability they choose. This article discusses the new options and the new responsibilities of customers, the needed for continuous education, and MidAmerican Energy Company's experiment in direct marketing of natural gas
Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt; Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Verdin, James P.
The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and
Senatore, Alfonso; Hejabi, Somayeh; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Bazrafshan, Javad; Irannejad, Parviz
Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space-time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970-2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.
Tadesse, Tsegaye; Champagne, Catherine; Wardlow, Brian D.; Hadwen, Trevor A.; Brown, Jesslyn; Demisse, Getachew B.; Bayissa, Yared A.; Davidson, Andrew M.
Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs throughout the world and impacts many sectors of society. To help decision-makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve monitoring tools that provide relevant and timely information in support of drought mitigation decisions. Given that drought is a complex natural hazard that manifests in different forms, monitoring can be improved by integrating various types of information (e.g., remote sensing and climate) that is timely and region specific to identify where and when droughts are occurring. The Vegetation Drought Response Index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) is a recently developed drought monitoring tool for Canada. VegDRI-Canada extends the initial VegDRI concept developed for the conterminous United States to a broader transnational coverage across North America. VegDRI-Canada models are similar to those developed for the United States, integrating satellite observations of vegetation status, climate data, and biophysical information on land use and land cover, soil characteristics, and other environmental factors. Collectively, these different types of data are integrated into the hybrid VegDRI-Canada to isolate the effects of drought on vegetation. Twenty-three weekly VegDRI-Canada models were built for the growing season (April–September) through the weekly analysis of these data using a regression tree-based data mining approach. A 15-year time series of VegDRI-Canada results (s to 2014) was produced using these models and the output was validated by randomly selecting 20% of the historical data, as well as holdout year (15% unseen data) across the growing season that the Pearson’s correlation ranged from 0.6 to 0.77. A case study was also conducted to evaluate the VegDRI-Canada results over the prairie region of Canada for two drought years and one non-drought year for three weekly periods of the growing season (i.e., early-, mid-, and late season). The comparison of the Veg
Samadi, Sina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila
Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. It occurs in high as well as low rainfall areas. Drought is the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period of time, usually a season or more in length, although other climatic factors (such as high temperatures, high winds, and low relative humidity) are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate the severity of the event. Most parts of the 1. R. of Iran have a high degree of aridity and pronounced rainfall variability in large parts of their territories and are therefore highly vulnerable to drought. Therefore, drought is one of greatest natural disasters in our country. Among all natural disasters, droughts occur the most frequently, have the longest duration, cover the largest area, and cause the greatest losses in agricultural production. The quantification of impacts and the provision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for drought than they are for other natural hazards. Since, the drought is a normal part of climate, it is difficult to determine its onset, development, and end. This fact emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive monitoring or early warning systems. Drought prediction (monthly, seasonal, or yearly trends) is particularly useful for the drought planning and mitigation. Drought Early Warning System is applied as a pilot study during the last two years. The NDEWSI is based on the monitoring drought indices, such as SPI, Palmer and NDVI, and preparedness, where will be discussed in this paper. In this paper, we have presented a brief drought analysis using the SPI and demonstrated its potential use for drought analysis with minimal data requirements. It is our view that development of a drought monitoring system, based largely on meteorological and climatic information, can be a great help for early assessment of drought impacts in
Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel
Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help
Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is a creeping natural phenomenon, which can occur in any region. Such phenomenon not only affects the region subjected to drought, but its adverse effects can also be extended to other adjacent regions. This phenomenon mainly starts with water deficiency (say less than long- term mean of variable under study such as rainfall, streamflow, groundwater level or soil moisture and progress in time. This period can be ended by increasing the rainfall and reaching the mean level. Even after the ending of a drought period, its adverse effects can be continued for several months. Although, it is not possible (at least at this time to prevent the occurrence of drought in a given region, it is not impossible to alleviate the drought consequences by scientific water management. Such a management should be employed before drought initiation as well as during it and continue on even after the end of the drought period. The frequency of the main drought characteristics is a major concern of this study. The Northwest of Iran recently encountered severe and prolonged droughts, such that a major portion of the Urmia Lake surface disappeared during the last drought in recent years. In order to study drought characteristics, we used the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI. This index is based on annual rainfall and potential reference crop evapotranspiration (abbreviated by PET here. This study employed the Monte Carlo simulation technique for synthetic data generation for analysis. Materials and Methods: The information from the 17 synoptic weather stations located in the North-west of Iran was used for drought analysis. Data was gathered from the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Meteorological Organization (IRIMO. In the first stage of research, the ratio of long term mean annual precipitation to evapotranspiration was calculated for each of the stations. For this purpose, the Penman-Montheis (FAO 56 method was selected for PET estimation. In the
Bekera, Behailu Belamo
the systematic approach can be used for better understanding of pertinent vulnerabilities by providing risk-based information to stakeholders in the power sector. Vulnerabilities as well as our understanding of their extent and likelihood change over time. Keeping up with the changes and making informed decisions demands a time-dependent method that incorporates new evidence into risk assessment framework. This study presents a statistical time-dependent risk analysis approach, which allows for life cycle drought risk assessment of thermoelectric power systems. Also, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) extension to the proposed framework is developed. The BBN allows for incorporating new evidence, such as observing power curtailments due to extreme heat or lowflow situations, and updating our knowledge and understanding of the pertinent risk. In sum, the proposed approach can help improve adaptive capacity of the electric power infrastructure, thereby enhancing its resilience to events potentially threatening grid reliability and economic stability. The proposed drought characterization methodology is applied on a daily streamflow series obtained from three United States Geological Survey (USGS) water gauges on the Tennessee River basin. The stochastic water supply risk assessment and projection methods are demonstrated for two power plants on the White River, Indiana: Frank E. Ratts and Petersburg, using water temperature and streamflow time series data obtained from a nearby USGS gauge.
Taïbi, Khaled; Del Campo, Antonio D; Vilagrosa, Alberto; Bellés, José M; López-Gresa, María Pilar; Pla, Davinia; Calvete, Juan J; López-Nicolás, José M; Mulet, José M
Drought is one of the main constraints determining forest species growth, survival and productivity, and therefore one of the main limitations for reforestation or afforestation. The aim of this study is to characterize the drought response at the physiological and molecular level of different Pinus halepensis (common name Aleppo pine) seed sources, previously characterized in field trials as drought-sensitive or drought-tolerant. This approach aims to identify different traits capable of predicting the ability of formerly uncharacterized seedlings to cope with drought stress. Gas-exchange, water potential, photosynthetic pigments, soluble sugars, free amino acids, glutathione and proteomic analyses were carried out on control and drought-stressed seedlings in greenhouse conditions. Gas-exchange determinations were also assessed in field-planted seedlings in order to validate the greenhouse experimental conditions. Drought-tolerant seed sources presented higher values of photosynthetic rates, water use efficiency, photosynthetic pigments and soluble carbohydrates concentrations. We observed the same pattern of variation of photosynthesis rate and maximal efficiency of PSII in field. Interestingly drought-tolerant seed sources exhibited increased levels of glutathione, methionine and cysteine. The proteomic profile of drought tolerant seedlings identified two heat shock proteins and an enzyme related to methionine biosynthesis that were not present in drought sensitive seedlings, pointing to the synthesis of sulfur amino acids as a limiting factor for drought tolerance in Pinus halepensis . Our results established physiological and molecular traits useful as distinctive markers to predict drought tolerance in Pinus halepensis provenances that could be reliably used in reforestation programs in drought prone areas.
Full Text Available Drought is one of the main constraints determining forest species growth, survival and productivity, and therefore one of the main limitations for reforestation or afforestation. The aim of this study is to characterize the drought response at the physiological and molecular level of different Pinus halepensis (common name Aleppo pine seed sources, previously characterized in field trials as drought-sensitive or drought-tolerant. This approach aims to identify different traits capable of predicting the ability of formerly uncharacterized seedlings to cope with drought stress. Gas-exchange, water potential, photosynthetic pigments, soluble sugars, free amino acids, glutathione and proteomic analyses were carried out on control and drought-stressed seedlings in greenhouse conditions. Gas-exchange determinations were also assessed in field-planted seedlings in order to validate the greenhouse experimental conditions. Drought-tolerant seed sources presented higher values of photosynthetic rates, water use efficiency, photosynthetic pigments and soluble carbohydrates concentrations. We observed the same pattern of variation of photosynthesis rate and maximal efficiency of PSII in field. Interestingly drought-tolerant seed sources exhibited increased levels of glutathione, methionine and cysteine. The proteomic profile of drought tolerant seedlings identified two heat shock proteins and an enzyme related to methionine biosynthesis that were not present in drought sensitive seedlings, pointing to the synthesis of sulfur amino acids as a limiting factor for drought tolerance in Pinus halepensis. Our results established physiological and molecular traits useful as distinctive markers to predict drought tolerance in Pinus halepensis provenances that could be reliably used in reforestation programs in drought prone areas.
Full Text Available Drought is considered to be a major threat to soybean production worldwide and yet our current understanding of the effects of drought on soybean productively is largely based on studies on above-ground traits. Although the roots and root nodules are important sensors of drought, the responses of these crucial organs and their drought tolerance features remain poorly characterized. The symbiotic interaction between soybean and rhizobia facilitates atmospheric nitrogen fixation, a process that provides essential nitrogen to support plant growth and development. Symbiotic nitrogen fixation is important for sustainable agriculture, as it sustains plant growth on nitrogen-poor soils and limits fertilizer use for crop nitrogen nutrition. Recent developments have been made in our understanding of the drought impact on soybean root architecture and nodule traits, as well as underpinning transcriptome, proteome and also emerging metabolome information, with a view to improve the selection of more drought-tolerant soybean cultivars and rhizobia in the future. We conclude that the direct screening of root and nodule traits in the field as well as identification of genes, proteins and also metabolites involved in such traits will be essential in order to gain a better understanding of the regulation of root architecture, bacteroid development and lifespan in relation to drought tolerance in soybean.
Kunert, Karl J; Vorster, Barend J; Fenta, Berhanu A; Kibido, Tsholofelo; Dionisio, Giuseppe; Foyer, Christine H
Drought is considered to be a major threat to soybean production worldwide and yet our current understanding of the effects of drought on soybean productively is largely based on studies on above-ground traits. Although the roots and root nodules are important sensors of drought, the responses of these crucial organs and their drought tolerance features remain poorly characterized. The symbiotic interaction between soybean and rhizobia facilitates atmospheric nitrogen fixation, a process that provides essential nitrogen to support plant growth and development. Symbiotic nitrogen fixation is important for sustainable agriculture, as it sustains plant growth on nitrogen-poor soils and limits fertilizer use for crop nitrogen nutrition. Recent developments have been made in our understanding of the drought impact on soybean root architecture and nodule traits, as well as underpinning transcriptome, proteome and also emerging metabolome information, with a view to improve the selection of more drought-tolerant soybean cultivars and rhizobia in the future. We conclude that the direct screening of root and nodule traits in the field as well as identification of genes, proteins and also metabolites involved in such traits will be essential in order to gain a better understanding of the regulation of root architecture, bacteroid development and lifespan in relation to drought tolerance in soybean.
Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.
Drought has adverse effects on society through reduced water availability and agricultural production and increased wildfire risk. An abundance of remotely sensed imagery and climate data are being collected in near-real time that can provide place-based monitoring and early warning of drought and related hazards. However, in an era of increasing wealth of earth observations, tools that quickly access, compute, and visualize archives, and provide answers at relevant scales to better inform decision-making are lacking. We have developed ClimateEngine.org, a web application that uses Google's Earth Engine platform to enable users to quickly compute and visualize real-time observations. A suite of drought indices allow us to monitor and track drought from local (30-meters) to regional scales and contextualize current droughts within the historical record. Climate Engine is currently being used by U.S. federal agencies and researchers to develop baseline conditions and impact assessments related to agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought. Climate Engine is also working with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to expedite monitoring agricultural drought over broad areas at risk of food insecurity globally.
Santos, N. I.; Piechota, T. C.; Miller, W. P.; Ahmad, S.
The Colorado River Basin has experienced the driest 17 year period (2000-2016) in over 100 years of historical record keeping. While the Colorado River reservoir system began the current drought at near 100% capacity, reservoir storage has fallen to just above 50% during the drought. Even though federal and state water agencies have worked together to mitigate the impact of the drought and have collaboratively sponsored conservation programs and drought contingency plans, the 17-years of observed data beg the question as to whether the most recent climate projections would have been able to project the current drought's severity. The objective of this study is to analyze observations and ensemble projections (e.g. temperature, precipitation, streamflow) from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archive in the Colorado River Basin and compare metrics related to skill scores, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and water supply sustainability index. Furthermore, a sub-ensemble of CMIP3/CMIP5 projections, developed using a teleconnection replication verification technique developed by the author, will also be compared to the observed record to assist in further validating the technique as a usable process to increase skill in climatological projections. In the end, this study will assist to better inform water resource managers about the ability of climate ensembles to project hydroclimatic variability and the appearance of decadal drought periods.
Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.
Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)
Zhu, Mengmeng; Monroe, J Grey; Suhail, Yasir; Villiers, Florent; Mullen, Jack; Pater, Dianne; Hauser, Felix; Jeon, Byeong Wook; Bader, Joel S; Kwak, June M; Schroeder, Julian I; McKay, John K; Assmann, Sarah M
1169 I. 1170 II. 1170 III. 1172 IV. 1176 V. 1181 VI. 1182 1183 References 1183 SUMMARY: Modern agriculture is facing multiple challenges including the necessity for a substantial increase in production to meet the needs of a burgeoning human population. Water shortage is a deleterious consequence of both population growth and climate change and is one of the most severe factors limiting global crop productivity. Brassica species, particularly canola varieties, are cultivated worldwide for edible oil, animal feed, and biodiesel, and suffer dramatic yield loss upon drought stress. The recent release of the Brassica napus genome supplies essential genetic information to facilitate identification of drought-related genes and provides new information for agricultural improvement in this species. Here we summarize current knowledge regarding drought responses of canola, including physiological and -omics effects of drought. We further discuss knowledge gained through translational biology based on discoveries in the closely related reference species Arabidopsis thaliana and through genetic strategies such as genome-wide association studies and analysis of natural variation. Knowledge of drought tolerance/resistance responses in canola together with research outcomes arising from new technologies and methodologies will inform novel strategies for improvement of drought tolerance and yield in this and other important crop species. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.
Byrne, Patrick A; Crawford, J Douglas
It is not known how egocentric visual information (location of a target relative to the self) and allocentric visual information (location of a target relative to external landmarks) are integrated to form reach plans. Based on behavioral data from rodents and humans we hypothesized that the degree of stability in visual landmarks would influence the relative weighting. Furthermore, based on numerous cue-combination studies we hypothesized that the reach system would act like a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), where the reliability of both cues determines their relative weighting. To predict how these factors might interact we developed an MLE model that weighs egocentric and allocentric information based on their respective reliabilities, and also on an additional stability heuristic. We tested the predictions of this model in 10 human subjects by manipulating landmark stability and reliability (via variable amplitude vibration of the landmarks and variable amplitude gaze shifts) in three reach-to-touch tasks: an egocentric control (reaching without landmarks), an allocentric control (reaching relative to landmarks), and a cue-conflict task (involving a subtle landmark "shift" during the memory interval). Variability from all three experiments was used to derive parameters for the MLE model, which was then used to simulate egocentric-allocentric weighting in the cue-conflict experiment. As predicted by the model, landmark vibration--despite its lack of influence on pointing variability (and thus allocentric reliability) in the control experiment--had a strong influence on egocentric-allocentric weighting. A reduced model without the stability heuristic was unable to reproduce this effect. These results suggest heuristics for extrinsic cue stability are at least as important as reliability for determining cue weighting in memory-guided reaching.
Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei
verify the effectiveness of the CDI. In addition, GIS is applied to provide geographically referenced information, i.e. information involving location, elevation, land use, water resources distance and so on, which are essential inputs for spatial analysis in drought risk assessment. On the whole, this study has proposed a new idea on drought risk assessment integrating natural factors with social factors, as well as providing a real-time drought monitoring method in a social context.
Full Text Available Food legume crops play important roles in conservation farming systems and contribute to food security in the developing world. However, in many regions of the world, their production has been adversely affected by drought. Although water scarcity is a severe abiotic constraint of legume crops productivity, it remains unclear how the effects of drought co-vary with legume species, soil texture, agroclimatic region, and drought timing. To address these uncertainties, we collected literature data between 1980 and 2014 that reported monoculture legume yield responses to drought under field conditions, and analyzed this data set using meta-analysis techniques. Our results showed that the amount of water reduction was positively related with yield reduction, but the extent of the impact varied with legume species and the phenological state during which drought occurred. Overall, lentil (Lens culinaris, groundnut (Arachis hypogaea, and pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan were found to experience lower drought-induced yield reduction compared to legumes such as cowpea (Vigna unguiculata and green gram (Vigna radiate. Yield reduction was generally greater when legumes experienced drought during their reproductive stage compared to during their vegetative stage. Legumes grown in soil with medium texture also exhibited greater yield reduction compared to those planted on soil of either coarse or fine texture. In contrast, regions and their associated climatic factors did not significantly affect legume yield reduction. In the face of changing climate, our study provides useful information for agricultural planning and research directions for development of drought-resistant legume species to improve adaptation and resilience of agricultural systems in the drought-prone regions of the world.
Daryanto, Stefani; Wang, Lixin; Jacinthe, Pierre-André
Food legume crops play important roles in conservation farming systems and contribute to food security in the developing world. However, in many regions of the world, their production has been adversely affected by drought. Although water scarcity is a severe abiotic constraint of legume crops productivity, it remains unclear how the effects of drought co-vary with legume species, soil texture, agroclimatic region, and drought timing. To address these uncertainties, we collected literature data between 1980 and 2014 that reported monoculture legume yield responses to drought under field conditions, and analyzed this data set using meta-analysis techniques. Our results showed that the amount of water reduction was positively related with yield reduction, but the extent of the impact varied with legume species and the phenological state during which drought occurred. Overall, lentil (Lens culinaris), groundnut (Arachis hypogaea), and pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan) were found to experience lower drought-induced yield reduction compared to legumes such as cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) and green gram (Vigna radiate). Yield reduction was generally greater when legumes experienced drought during their reproductive stage compared to during their vegetative stage. Legumes grown in soil with medium texture also exhibited greater yield reduction compared to those planted on soil of either coarse or fine texture. In contrast, regions and their associated climatic factors did not significantly affect legume yield reduction. In the face of changing climate, our study provides useful information for agricultural planning and research directions for development of drought-resistant legume species to improve adaptation and resilience of agricultural systems in the drought-prone regions of the world.
Full Text Available The reduction of drought impacts may be achieved through sustainable drought management and proactive measures against drought disaster. Accurate and timely provision of drought information is essential. In this study, drought forecasting models to provide high-resolution drought information based on drought indicators for ungauged areas were developed. The developed models predict drought indices of the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6 and the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6. An interpolation method based on multiquadric spline interpolation method as well as three machine learning models were tested. Three machine learning models of Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extremely Randomized Trees were tested to enhance the provision of drought initial conditions based on remote sensing data, since initial conditions is one of the most important factors for drought forecasting. Machine learning-based methods performed better than interpolation methods for both classification and regression, and the methods using climatology data outperformed the methods using long-range forecast. The model based on climatological data and the machine learning method outperformed overall.
First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Drought associated with climate change may lead to food and water shortage. Drought associated with climate change may lead to food and water shortage. Greater vulnerability to infectious diseases. Population displacements and mass migrations with all ...
Molen, M.K. van der; Dolman, A.J.; Ciais, P.; Eglin, T.; Gobron, N.; Law, B.E.; Meir, P.; Peters, P.; Philips, O.L.; Reichstein, M.; Chen, T.; Dekker, S.C.; Doubkova, M.; Friedl, M.A.; Jung, M.; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Jeu, R.A.M. de; Kruijt, B.; Ohta, T.; Rebel, K.T.; Plummer, S.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Sitch, S.; Teuling, A.J.; Werf, G.R. van der; Wang, G.
Drought as an intermittent disturbance of the water cycle interacts with the carbon cycle differently than the ‘gradual’ climate change. During drought plants respond physiologically and structurally to prevent excessive water loss according to species-specific water use strategies. This has
Maybank, J. [Agvironics Consulting, SK (Canada); Bonsal, B. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Jones, K. [Environment Canada, Downsview, ON (Canada). Canadian Climate Centre; Lawford, R. [Canadian Climate Centre, Saskatoon, SK (Canada). National Hydrology Research Centre; O`Brien, E.G. [Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Energy Analysis and Policy Div.; Ripley, E.A. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Soil Science; Wheaton, E. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)
A discussion of droughts as a major natural disaster in dry areas such as the Canadian Prairies where precipitation patterns are seasonal, was presented. Environmental damages include soil degradation and erosion, vegetation damage, slough and lake deterioration and wildlife loss. The development and application of specific soil moisture and drought indices based on cumulative precipitation deficits have enhanced drought monitoring programs. The identification of precursor conditions raises the possibility that the likelihood of a drought occurring in a particular year or growing season might be predictable. The ability to forecast seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies is potentially feasible using a suitable merging of precursor parameters and modelling methodologies. Research activity to identify and evaluate new mitigative measure should be increased to keep pace with the prospects of drought predictability. 90 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.
Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia
Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event
Thatch, L. M.; Maxwell, R. M.; Gilbert, J. M.
Over the past century, groundwater levels in California's San Joaquin Valley have dropped more than 30 meters in some areas due to excessive groundwater extraction to irrigate agricultural lands and feed a growing population. Between 2012 and 2016 California experienced the worst drought in its recorded history, further exacerbating this groundwater depletion. Due to lack of groundwater regulation, exact quantities of extracted groundwater in California are unknown and hard to quantify. We use a synthesis of integrated hydrologic model simulations and remote sensing products to quantify the impact of drought and groundwater pumping on the Central Valley water tables. The Parflow-CLM model was used to evaluate groundwater depletion in the San Joaquin River basin under multiple groundwater extraction scenarios simulated from pre-drought through recent drought years. Extraction scenarios included pre-development conditions, with no groundwater pumping; historical conditions based on decreasing groundwater level measurements; and estimated groundwater extraction rates calculated from the deficit between the predicted crop water demand, based on county land use surveys, and available surface water supplies. Results were compared to NASA's Gravity Recover and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data products to constrain water table decline from groundwater extraction during severe drought. This approach untangles various factors leading to groundwater depletion within the San Joaquin Valley both during drought and years of normal recharge to help evaluate which areas are most susceptible to groundwater overdraft, as well as further evaluating the spatially and temporally variable sustainable yield. Recent efforts to improve water management and ensure reliable water supplies are highlighted by California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) which mandates Groundwater Sustainability Agencies to determine the maximum quantity of groundwater that can be withdrawn through
Close, S.; Simpson, C.
Communities around the country are increasingly recognizing the need to plan for water shortages and long-term drought. To build preparedness and help communities manage risk, researchers funded by NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Coping with Drought initiative through the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program are working to better understand these impacts across the country and work with communities and resource managers to develop adaptation strategies that meet their needs. The Coping with Drought initiative supports research involving the use of climate predictions and forecast information in decision-making across a range of sectors including agriculture, natural and water resources management, and public health. As a component of this initiative, the RISA program supported research and engagement to develop indicators of drought designed to be of most use to managers and planners grappling with severe and in some cases ongoing drought in their regions. Indicators are being developed for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas, water management in California, and native communities in Arizona. For instance, the California Nevada Applications Program (CNAP) RISA developed a percentile-based indicator system for analyzing historic droughts and characterizing the ongoing California drought. And in the Southwest, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) RISA has been working with the Hopi community on drought monitoring and planning to develop the first-ever Hopi Quarterly Drought Status Report which integrates scientific and local knowledge about drought. This presentation will discuss RISA's role in developing drought indicators based on engagement with decision makers and how this work fits into the larger role that RISAs are playing in the development of the NIDIS Regional Drought Early Warning Systems across the U.S.
M. T. Hoffman
Full Text Available For the winter-rainfall region of South Africa, the frequency of drought is predicted to increase over the next 100 years, with dire consequences for the vegetation of this biodiversity hotspot. We analysed historical 20th century rainfall records for six rainfall stations within the succulent karoo biome to determine if the signal of increasing drought frequency is already apparent, and whether mean annual rainfall is decreasing. We found no evidence for a decrease either in mean annual rainfall or in the incidence of drought, as measured by the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI over the 20th century. Evidence points to a drying trend from 1900–1950 while no significant trend in rainfall and drought was found at most stations from 1951–2000. In a second analysis we synthesised the information concerning the response of adult succulent karoo biome plants and seedlings to extended drought conditions. General findings are that responses to drought differ between species, and that longevity is an important life history trait related to drought survival. Growth form is a poor predictor of drought response across the biome. There was a range of responses to drought among adult plants of various growth forms, and among non-succulent seedlings. Leaf-succulent seedlings, however, exhibited phenomenal drought resistance, the majority surviving drought long after all the experimentally comparative non-succulent seedlings had died. Our synthesis showed that previous studies on the impact of drought on succulent karoo biome plants differ greatly in terms of their location, sampling design, measured values and plant responses. A suite of coordinated long-term field observations, experiments and models are therefore needed to assess the response of succulent karoo biome species to key drought events as they occur over time and to integrate this information into conservation planning.
aims to establish a complete observation &experiment system for droughts particularly over the arid and semi-arid regions in northern China. Relying on the existing meteorological observation network and experimental bases, the DroughtPEX_China implemented interdisciplinary, comprehensive and systemic drought-scientific experiment including the routine observation, intensive and special observation, and the artificially field control test for the drought forming and reducing. Such large observation &experiment will promote a large step or theoretical breakthrough on the knowledge of the complex dynamic process for the formation and development of drought disasters, the mechanism of the water-energy cycle in the atmosphere-soil-vegetation on multi-scales, and the interrelationship in the atmosphere, agriculture and hydrological droughts. The ultimate purpose of DroughtPEX_China is to make great progress on the technology of accurate drought monitoring, risk assessment and early warning. This paper will introduce the Drought PEX_China with the scientific goal, experiment design and layout, preliminary results, information sharing, and its promoting role on international cooperation of drought scientific research. Key words: Disaster-causing process of drought; Observation & experiment; Northern China
Adams, Samantha A
The purpose of this inter-disciplinary literature review was to explore renewed concerns about the reliability of online health information in light of the increasing popularity of web applications that enable more end-user-generated content ("web 2.0"). The findings are based on a literature and web review. Literature was collected at four different points between October 2006 and October 2008 and included 56 sources from 10 academic disciplines. The web review consisted of following 6 blogs (including both new and archived posts, with comments) and one wiki for a period of 1.5 months and assessing the content for relevancy on six points, totaling 63 sources altogether. The reliability issues that are identified with respect to "web 2.0" reiterate more general concerns expressed about the web over the last 15 years. The difference, however, lies in the scope and scale of potential problems. Social scientists have also pointed to new issues that can be especially relevant for use of web 2.0 applications in health care. Specific points of renewed concern include: disclosure of authorship and information quality, anonymity and privacy, and the ability of individuals to apply information to their personal situation. Whether or not end-users understand what social scientists call "negative network externalities" is a new concern. Finally, not all reliability issues are negative-social networking and the shift from text-based information to symbolic information, images or interactive information, are considered to enhance patient education and to provide opportunities to reach diverse groups of patients. Interactive and collaborative web applications undeniably offer new opportunities for reaching patients and other health care consumers by facilitating lay information creation, sharing and retrieval. However, researchers must be careful and critical when incorporating applications or practices from other fields in health care. We must not easily dismiss concerns about
Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.; Schwabe, K.
Using state contingent analysis we discuss how and why irrigators adapt to alternative water supply signals. This analysis approach helps to illustrate how and why producers currently use state-general and state-allocable inputs to adapt and respond to known and possible future climatic alternative natures. Focusing on the timing of water allocations, we explore inherent differences in the demand for water by two key irrigation sectors: annual and perennial producers which in Australia have allowed a significant degree of risk-minimisation during droughts. In the absence of land constraints, producers also had a capacity to respond to positive state outcomes and achieve super-normal profits. In the future, however, the probability of positive state outcomes is uncertain; production systems may need to adapt to minimise losses and/or achieve positive returns under altered water supply conditions that may arise as a consequence of more frequent drought states. As such, producers must assess whether altering current input/output choice sets in response to possible future climate states will enhance their long-run competitive advantage for both expected new normal and extreme water supply outcomes. Further, policy supporting agricultural sector climate change resilience must avoid poorly-designed strategies that increase producer vulnerability in the face of drought. Our analysis explores the reliability of alternative water property right bundles and how reduced allocations across time influence alternative responses by producers. We then extend our analysis to explore how management strategies could adapt to two possible future drier state types: i) where an average reduction in water supply is experienced; and ii) where the frequency of droughts increase. The combination of these findings are subsequently used to discuss the role water reform policy has to deal with current and future climate scenarios. We argue current policy strategies could drive producers to
The human factor's reliability program was at Slovenske elektrarne, a.s. (SE) nuclear power plants. introduced as one of the components Initiatives of Excellent Performance in 2011. The initiative's goal was to increase the reliability of both people and facilities, in response to 3 major areas of improvement - Need for improvement of the results, Troubleshooting support, Supporting the achievement of the company's goals. The human agent's reliability program is in practice included: - Tools to prevent human error; - Managerial observation and coaching; - Human factor analysis; -Quick information about the event with a human agent; -Human reliability timeline and performance indicators; - Basic, periodic and extraordinary training in human factor reliability(authors)
A. T. Lennard
Full Text Available Droughts are a reoccurring feature of the UK climate; recent drought events (2004–2006 and 2010–2012 have highlighted the UK’s continued vulnerability to this hazard. There is a need for further understanding of extreme events, particularly from a water resource perspective. A number of drought indices are available, which can help to improve our understanding of drought characteristics such as frequency, severity and duration. However, at present little of this is applied to water resource management in the water supply sector. Improved understanding of drought characteristics using indices can inform water resource management plans and enhance future drought resilience. This study applies the standardised precipitation index (SPI to a series of rainfall records (1962–2012 across the water supply region of a single utility provider. Key droughts within this period are analysed to develop an understanding of the meteorological characteristics that lead to, exist during and terminate drought events. The results of this analysis highlight how drought severity and duration can vary across a small-scale water supply region, indicating that the spatial coherence of drought events cannot be assumed.
Puangbut, D.; Vorasoot, N.
Root length density and rooting depth have been established as drought resistant traits and these could be used as selection criteria for drought resistant genotype in many plant species. However, information on deep rooting and the root distribution pattern of Jerusalem artichoke under drought conditions is not well documented in the literature. The objective of this study was to investigate the root distribution pattern in Jerusalem artichoke genotypes under irrigated and drought conditions. This experiment was conducted within a greenhouse using rhizoboxes. Three Jerusalem artichoke genotypes were tested under two water regimes (irrigated and drought). A 2 × 3 factorial experiment was arranged in a randomized complete block design with three replications over two years. Data were recorded for root traits, photosynthesis and biomass at 30 days after imposing drought. The drought decreased root length, root surface area and root dry weight, while increased the root: shoot ratio, root distribution in the deeper soil and the percentage of root length at deeper in the soil, when compared to the irrigated conditions JA-5 and JA-60 showed high root length in the lower soil profile under drought conditions, indicating these genotypes could be identified as drought resistant genotype. The highest positive correlation was found between root length at deeper soil layer with relative water content (RWC), net photosynthetic rate (Pn) and biomass. It is expected that selection of Jerusalem artichoke with high root length coupled with maintaining high RWC and their promotion to Pn could improve the biomass and tuber yield under drought conditions. (author)
Full Text Available Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata, an evergreen conifer, is the most commonly grown afforestation species in southeast China due to its rapid growth and good wood qualities. To gain a better understanding of the drought-signalling pathway and the molecular metabolic reactions involved in the drought response, we performed a genome-wide transcription analysis using RNA sequence data. In this study, Chinese fir plantlets were subjected to progressively prolonged drought stress, up to 15 d, followed by rewatering under controlled environmental conditions. Based on observed morphological changes, plantlets experienced mild, moderate, or severe water stress before rehydration. Transcriptome analysis of plantlets, representing control and mild, moderate, and severe drought-stress treatments, and the rewatered plantlets, identified several thousand genes whose expression was altered in response to drought stress. Many genes whose expression was tightly coupled to the levels of drought stress were identified, suggesting involvement in Chinese fir drought adaptation responses. These genes were associated with transcription factors, signal transport, stress kinases, phytohormone signalling, and defence/stress response. The present study provides the most comprehensive transcriptome resource and the first dynamic transcriptome profiles of Chinese fir under drought stress. The drought-responsive genes identified in this study could provide further information for understanding the mechanisms of drought tolerance in Chinese fir.
Jeff Prestemon; Linda Kruger; Karen L. Abt; Michael Bowker; Consuelo Brandeis; Dave Calkin; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Charlotte Ham; Thomas P. Holmes; Jeffrey Kline; Travis Warziniack
The economic and social effects of drought are diverse and related to physical characteristics of drought, including spatial extent, severity, duration, and frequency that combine to determine droughtâs overall effects on society. Most of the attention given to economic and social impacts of drought focuses on adverse consequences, but technology, public...
Drought is the most important cause of crop and yield loss around the world. Breeding for
drought tolerance is not straightforward, as drought is a complex trait. A better understanding
of the expression of drought traits, the genes underlying the traits and the way these
Carrao, Hugo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen
Drought is a recurring extreme climate event characterized by a temporary deficit of precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow, or any combination of the three taking place at the same time. The immediate consequences of short-term (i.e. a few weeks duration) droughts are, for example, a fall in crop production, poor pasture growth and a decline in fodder supplies from crop residues, whereas prolonged water shortages (e.g. of several months or years duration) may, amongst others, lead to a reduction in hydro-electrical power production and an increase of forest fires. As a result, comprehensive drought risk management is nowadays critical for many regions in the world. Examples are many African and South-and Central American countries that strongly depend on rain-fed agriculture for economic development with hydroelectricity and biomass as main sources of energy. Drought risk is the probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between drought hazard, i.e. the physical nature of droughts, and the degree to which a population or activity is vulnerable to its effects. As vulnerability to drought is increasing globally and certain tasks, such as distributive policies (e.g. relief aid, regulatory exemptions, or preparedness investments), require information on drought severity that is comparable across different climatic regions, greater attention has recently been directed to the development of methods for a standardized quantification of drought hazard. In this study we, therefore, concentrate on a methodology for assessing the severity of historical droughts and on mapping the frequency of their occurrence. To achieve these goals, we use a new Meteorological Drought Severity Index (MDSI). The motivation is twofold: 1) the observation that primitive indices of drought severity directly measure local precipitation shortages and cannot be compared geographically; and that 2) standardized indices of drought do not take into account
NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites measure time variations of the Earth's gravity field enabling reliable detection of spatio-temporal variations in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), including groundwater. The U.S. and North American Drought Monitors rely heavily on precipitation indices and do not currently incorporate systematic observations of deep soil moisture and groundwater storage conditions. Thus GRACE has great potential to improve the Drought Monitors by filling this observational gap. GRACE TWS data were assimilating into the Catchment Land Surface Model using an ensemble Kalman smoother enabling spatial and temporal downscaling and vertical decomposition into soil moisture and groundwater components. The Drought Monitors combine several short- and long-term drought indicators expressed in percentiles as a reference to their historical frequency of occurrence. To be consistent, we generated a climatology of estimated soil moisture and ground water based on a 60-year Catchment model simulation, which was used to convert seven years of GRACE assimilated fields into drought indicator percentiles. At this stage we provide a preliminary evaluation of the GRACE assimilated moisture and indicator fields.
Hartin, Janet; Oki, Loren; Fujino, Dave; Faber, Ben
Plants that don't receive enough water eventually show signs of water stress. During a drought or under water restrictions aimed at water conservation, keeping plants alive can be particularly difficult.
van Apeldoorn, G J [ed.
The Aftermath of the 1972-74 Drought in Nigeria is concerned with solutions to the problems associated with droughts. Case studies on small-farmers responses and attitudes to drought are included and a recurrent theme is the need to use these skills to encourage self reliance at the farm and village levels. Trees, particularly as shelter-belts are advocated, as in the provision of supplementary feed reserves for livestock. The use of groundwater as a drought reserve is discussed. A large section is devoted to the description of completed or projected irrigation schemes. Drought forecasting is briefly covered and the planning aspects of drought preparedness viewed from both theoretical and practical standpoints. Finally two valuable papers discuss the long-term storage of grain, one at national level and one at village level. The reviewer suggests that large-scale irrigation schemes will prove to be very expensive and will be less effective than low-technology, low water-use, low-cost development designed to supplement inadequate rainfall; i.e., life-saving irrigation. In addition, the book failed to adequately discuss the importance of providing small-scale farmers with the information that would maximize production, insure long-term storage and a guaranteed market at a reasonable price.
Fisker, Peter Kielberg
to an estimator that is consistent and precise over time and space, includes information on both determinants and direct observations of drought, and is unaffected by human activities or the distance to nearest weather station. It is shown to outperform other widely used agricultural drought measures in its...... of quantitative and qualitative methods, the conclusion is that simple changes to the user interface of a web-page can have substantial positive effects on the amount of information being shared among relief organizations during the critical first 48 hours of a disaster event....... the change in production methods among small-scale farmers. By merging a geo-referenced panel dataset with rich information about agricultural practices with predicted greenness anomalies at the plot level, it is possible to precisely identify changes in behaviour before and after a severe drought. Due...
Penna Julio C. Viglioni
Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to adapt a screening method previously used to assess seedling drought tolerance in cereals for use in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. and to identify tolerant accessions among a wide range of genotypes. Ninety genotypes were screened in seven growth chamber experiments. Fifteen-day-old seedlings were subjected to four 4-day drought cycles, and plant survival was evaluated after each cycle. Three cycles are probably the minimum required in cotton work. Significant differences (at the 0.05 level or lower among entries were obtained in four of the seven experiments. A "confirmation test" with entries previously evaluated as "tolerant" (high survival and "susceptible" (low survival was run. A number of entries duplicated their earlier performance, but others did not, which indicates the need to reevaluate selections. Germplasms considered tolerant included: `IAC-13-1', `IAC-RM4-SM5', `Minas Sertaneja', `Acala 1517E-1' and `4521'. In general, the technique is simple, though time-consuming, with practical value for screening a large number of genotypes. Results from the screening tests generally agreed with field information. The screening procedure is suitable to select tolerant accessions from among a large number of entries in germplasm collections as a preliminary step in breeding for drought tolerance. This research also demonstrated the need to characterize the internal lack of uniformity in growth chambers to allow for adequate designs of experiments.
Halkett, Georgia KB; Kristjanson, Linda J
It is difficult to determine the most effective approach to patient education or tailor education interventions for patients in radiotherapy without tools that assess patients' specific radiation therapy information needs and concerns. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop psychometrically sound tools to adequately determine the concerns and information needs of cancer patients during radiation therapy. Two tools were developed to (1) determine patients concerns about radiation therapy (RT Concerns Scale) and (2) ascertain patient's information needs at different time point during their radiation therapy (RT Information Needs Scale). Tools were based on previous research by the authors, published literature on breast cancer and radiation therapy and information behaviour research. Thirty-one breast cancer patients completed the questionnaire on one occasion and thirty participants completed the questionnaire on a second occasion to facilitate test-retest reliability. One participant's responses were removed from the analysis. Results were analysed for content validity, internal consistency and stability over time. Both tools demonstrated high internal consistency and adequate stability over time. The nine items in the RT Concerns Scale were retained because they met all pre-set psychometric criteria. Two items were deleted from the RT Information Needs Scale because they did not meet content validity criteria and did not achieve pre-specified criteria for internal consistency. This tool now contains 22 items. This paper provides preliminary data suggesting that the two tools presented are reliable and valid and would be suitable for use in trials or in the clinical setting
Montoya, A; Llopis, N; Gilaberte, I
DISCERN is an instrument designed to help patients assess the reliability of written information on treatment choices. Originally created in English, there is no validated Spanish version of this instrument. This study seeks to validate the Spanish translation of the DISCERN instrument used as a primary measure on a multicenter study aimed to assess the reliability of web-based information on treatment choices for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We used a modified version of a method for validating translated instruments in which the original source-language version is formally compared with the back-translated source-language version. Each item was ranked in terms of comparability of language, similarity of interpretability, and degree of understandability. Responses used Likert scales ranging from 1 to 7, where 1 indicates the best interpretability, language and understandability, and 7 indicates the worst. Assessments were performed by 20 raters fluent in the source language. The Spanish translation of DISCERN, based on ratings of comparability, interpretability and degree of understandability (mean score (SD): 1.8 (1.1), 1.4 (0.9) and 1.6 (1.1), respectively), was considered extremely comparable. All items received a score of less than three, therefore no further revision of the translation was needed. The validation process showed that the quality of DISCERN translation was high, validating the comparable language of the tool translated on assessing written information on treatment choices for ADHD.
Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo
Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing
The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.
Kooij, J. J. Sandra; Boonstra, A. Marije; Swinkels, S. H. N.; Bekker, Evelijne M.; de Noord, Ineke; Buitelaar, Jan K.
Objective: To study the correlation between symptoms of ADHD in adults, obtained with different methods and from different sources. Method: Information was obtained from 120 adults with ADHD, their partners, and their parents, using the ADHD Rating Scale, the Conners' Adult ADHD Rating Scales (CAARS), the Brown Attention-Deficit Disorder Scale…
Kooij, J.J.S.; Boonstra, A.M.; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Bekker, E.M.; Noord, I. de; Buitelaar, J.K.
OBJECTIVE: To study the correlation between symptoms of ADHD in adults, obtained with different methods and from different sources. METHOD: Information was obtained from 120 adults with ADHD, their partners, and their parents, using the ADHD Rating Scale, the Conners' Adult ADHD Rating Scales
Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.
Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable
PINHEIRO BEATRIZ DA SILVEIRA
Full Text Available Field experiments involving upland rice genotypes, sown in various dates in late season, were carried out to assess the relationship of carbon isotope discrimination with grain yield and drought resistance. In each one of the three years, one trial was kept under good water availability, while other suffered water shortage for a period of 18-23 days, encompassing panicle emergence and flowering. Drought stress reduced carbon isotope discrimination measured on soluble sugars (deltas extracted from stem uppermost internode at the end of the imposition period, but had relatively less effect on bulk dry matter of leaves, sampled at the same period, or that of uppermost internodes and grains, sampled at harvest. The drought-induced reduction in deltas was accompanied of reduced spikelet fertility and grain yield. In the three trials subjected to drought, genotypes with the highest yield and spikelet fertility had the lowest deltas. However, this relationship was weak and it was concluded that deltas is not a sufficiently reliable indicator of rice drought resistance to be useful as a screening test in breeding programs. On the other hand, grain yield and spikelet fertility of genotypes which were the soonest to reach 50% flowering within the drought imposition period, were the least adversely affected by drought. Then, timing of drought in relation to panicle emergence and to flowering appeared to be a more important cause of yield variation among genotypes than variation in deltas.
Buytaert, W.; Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Caniglia, D.; Haibe, K.; Butler, A. P.
Somalia is one of the poorest countries in the world, devastated by conflict and suffering from the most severe droughts in living memory. Over 6 million people are in need of assistance, and about 3 million are threatened with famine. In April 2017, the WHO estimated that more than 25,000 people have been struck by cholera or acute watery diarrhoea and this number is rising quickly. About half a million Somalis have been displaced internally, many of which in search of water. Some 3 million pastoralists have lost 70% of livestock as a result of the drought. Humanitarian organisations and government agencies invest large amounts of resources to alleviate these conditions. It is paramount to inform the design, focus, and optimisation of these interventions by monitoring and quantifying water resources. Yet, regions such as Somalia are extremely sparsely gauged as a result of a combination of lack of resources and technical expertise, as well as the harsh geographical and geopolitical conditions. Low-cost, robust, and reliable sensors may provide a potential solution to this problem. We present the results of a research project that aimed to leverage new developments in sensor, logger, and data transmission technologies to develop low-cost water level sensors to monitor hand-dug groundwater wells in real time. We tested 3 types of sensor types, i.e. pressure transducers, ultrasound-based distance sensors, and lidar, which were coupled to low-cost logging systems. The different designs were tested both in laboratory conditions, and in-situ in hand-dug wells in Somaliland. Our results show that it is technically possible to build sensors with a total cost of around US$250 each, which are fit-for-purpose for the required application. In-situ deployment over a period of 2 months highlights their robustness despite severe logistical and practical challenges, though further tests are required to understand their long-term reliability. Operating the sensors at one
Nguyen, S. T.; Chen, C. F.; Chen, C. R.
Central America is one of the world's regions most vulnerable to negative effects of agricultural drought due to impacts of climate change. Famers in the region have been confronting risks of crop damages and production losses due to intense droughts throughout the growing seasons. Drought information is thus deemed vital for policymakers to assess their crop management strategies in tackling issues of food insecurity in the region. This study aimed to delineate drought-prone areas associated with cropped areas from eight-day MODIS data in 2016 using the commonly used temperature dryness vegetation index (TVDI), calculated based on the land surface temperature (LST) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. The advantages of MODIS data for agricultural drought monitoring at a national/regional scale are that it has the spatial resolution (500 m-1 km) and relatively high temporal resolution of eight days, but the data are often contaminated by clouds. Detecting and reconstructing the data under cloud-affected areas are generally a challenging task without any robust methods up to date. In this study, we reconstructed the eight-day MODIS EVI and LST data for agricultural drought assessment using machine-learning approaches. The reconstructed data were then used for drought assessment. The TVDI results verified with the soil moisture active passive (SMAP) data showed that the correlation coefficient values (r) obtained for the apante season (December-March) were between -0.4 to -0.8, while the values for the primera season (April-August) and postrera season (September-November) were in ranges of 0 to -0.6 and -0.2 to -0.7, respectively. The larger area of very dry soil moisture was generally observed during the dry season (December-April) and declined in the rainy season (May-November). The cropping areas affected by severe and moderate droughts observed for the primera season were respectively 11,846 km2 and 60,557 km2, while the values for the postera season were 14
Cuadrat, José M.; Barriendos, Mariano; Tejedor, Ernesto; Ángel Saz, Miguel; Serrano, Roberto
Among the different meteorological hazards, droughts are those with the highest socio-economical impact on the Iberian Peninsula. In the present work, drought events that occurred in North-East Spain during the period 1600-1900 have been analysed, using historical information. The abundant documentation available in historical archives and the detail of the meteorological event records allows us the systematic and continuous summary of the drought events from 16th to 19th centuries. Rogation (ceremonies to ask God for rain: pro-pluvia, or to stop raining: pro-serenitate) analysis is an effective method to derive information about climate extremes from documentary sources. These documents are homogeneous information that permit the reconstruction of drought frequency series and create continuous drought indices. Weighted annual sum by levels has been a widespread technique to analyze such data but this analysis is liable to be biased to spring values as these ceremonies are strongly related to farming activities and crop development. The analysis of the length of pro-pluvia periods (the time span during which rogations are carried out in relation to a drought event) and the combination of annual and seasonal information offers a more objective criterion for the analysis of the drought periods and an increase in the resolution of the study. Two drought maxima appear during the 1650-1675 and 1765-1795 periods, characterized by rogations during almost all the year, with a middle stage (1676-1710) when droughts were less frequent and their length shortened. Results indicate that drought evolution during the past four centuries often coincides in time with the evolution recorded in other Mediterranean areas. Between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries the most important droughts were recorded in the last quarter of the eighteenth century, which coincided with a period of high climatic variability known as the "Maldá" anomaly. In general, the eighteenth century was
Wilhite, D. A.; Sivakumar, M. K.; Stefanski, R.
affordable practices; and awareness and education, including a well-informed public and a participatory process that fully engages stakeholders at all stages of development. In preparation for the HMNDP, an International Symposium on Integrated Drought Information Systems was held in November 2011 in Casablanca, Morocco, to place emphasis on promoting rapid implementation of integrated drought information systems at the national level in all countries around the world.
Trninic, Dusan; Bosnjak, Tomislava
An exceptionally dry and warm period from February to early October 2003 resulted in hydrological drought with attributes of a natural disaster in most of the Croatian regions. The paper presents hydrological analysis of the Sava River near Zupanja for the period 1945-2003 (N=59 years). In defining maximum annual volumes of isolated waves below the reference discharges, the following reference discharges were used:Q 30,95% = 202m 3 s -1 - minimum mean 30-day discharge, 95 % probability, Q 30,80% = 254m 3 s -1 - minimum mean 30-day discharge, 80 % probability, Q 95% = 297m 3 s -1 - (H = -17cm minimum navigation level = 95 % of water level duration from average duration curve). The analysis results have shown that the hydrological drought recorded during the current year belongs to the most thoroughly studied droughts in 59 years. For example, hydrological analysis of the reference discharge of 297m 3 s -1 has shown that this year drought comes second, immediately after the driest year 1946. However, this year hydrological drought hit the record duration of 103 days, unlike the one from 1946, which lasted 98 days. It is interesting that the hydrological droughts affect the Sava River usually in autumn and summer, rarely in winter, and it has never been recorded in spring (referring to the analysed 1945-2003 period). In conclusion, some recommendations are given for increase in low streamflows and on possible impacts of climate changes on these flows.(Author)
Su, Z.; Yang, Y.; Zhang, J.; Lu, G.; Zhou, G.; Roerink, G.J.; Qi, J.; Liu, J.; Wang, L.; Wen, J.; Jia, L.; Zheng, W.; Yue, Z.; Chen, X.
Drought is one of the main natural disasters that man has suffered since the ancient era. In China nation-wide droughts occur year after year, imposing severe threats to the food security and constraining the sustainable development of social economy.The Water Resources Information Centre of the
Russell, Clifford S.; And Others
This book uses the 1962-66 Massachusetts drought data as a base of information to build a planning model of water resources that is of interest to students and professionals involved with water management. Using a demand-supply ratio to measure the relative inadequacy of a given water system, the authors then project demand into the drought period…
Alstrøm, Preben; Beierholm, Ulrik; Nielsen, Carsten Dahl
The reliability with which a neuron is able to create the same firing pattern when presented with the same stimulus is of critical importance to the understanding of neuronal information processing. We show that reliability is closely related to the process of phaselocking. Experimental results f...
Wu, Zhen-Yu; Tseng, Yi-Ju; Chung, Yufang; Chen, Yee-Chun; Lai, Feipei
With the rapid development of the Internet, both digitization and electronic orientation are required on various applications in the daily life. For hospital-acquired infection control, a Web-based Hospital-acquired Infection Surveillance System was implemented. Clinical data from different hospitals and systems were collected and analyzed. The hospital-acquired infection screening rules in this system utilized this information to detect different patterns of defined hospital-acquired infection. Moreover, these data were integrated into the user interface of a signal entry point to assist physicians and healthcare providers in making decisions. Based on Service-Oriented Architecture, web-service techniques which were suitable for integrating heterogeneous platforms, protocols, and applications, were used. In summary, this system simplifies the workflow of hospital infection control and improves the healthcare quality. However, it is probable for attackers to intercept the process of data transmission or access to the user interface. To tackle the illegal access and to prevent the information from being stolen during transmission over the insecure Internet, a password-based user authentication scheme is proposed for information integrity.
Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)
Petersen, Kurt Erling
Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...
Perveen, S.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.
been accessed for the agricultural data at the county level. Preliminary analyses show that large parts of Midwest and Southern parts of Florida and California are prone to multiyear droughts. This can primarily be attributed to high agricultural and/or urban water demands coupled with high interannual variability in supply. We propose to develop season-ahead and monthly updated forecasts of the drought index for informing the drought management plans. Given the already customized (sector specific) nature of the proposed drought index and its ability to represent the variability in both supply and demand, the early warning or forecasting of the index would not only complement the drought early warning systems in place by the national integrated drought information system (NIDIS) but also help in prescribing the ameliorative measures for adaptation.
Ren, J.; Hanan, E. J.; Kolden, C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Tague, C.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.
Drought events have been increasing across the western United States in recent years. Many studies have shown that, in the context of climate change, droughts will continue to be stronger, more frequent, and prolonged in the future. However, the response of forest ecosystems to droughts, particularly multi-year droughts, is not well understood. The objectives of this study are to examine how drought events of varying characteristics (e.g. intensity, duration, frequency, etc.) have affected the functioning of forest ecosystems historically, and how changing drought characteristics (including multi-year droughts) may affect forest functioning in a future climate. We utilize the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to simulate impacts of both historical droughts and scenarios of future droughts on forest ecosystems. RHESSys is a spatially-distributed and process-based model that captures the interactions between coupled biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles at catchment scales. Here our case study is the Trail Creek catchment of the Big Wood River basin in Idaho, the Northwestern USA. For historical simulations, we use the gridded meteorological data of 1979 to 2016; for future climate scenarios, we utilize downscaled data from GCMs that have been demonstrated to capture drought events in the Northwest of the USA. From these climate projections, we identify various types of drought in intensity and duration, including multi-year drought events. We evaluate the following responses of ecosystems to these events: 1) evapotranspiration and streamflow; 2) gross primary productivity; 3) the post-drought recovery of plant biomass; and 4) the forest functioning and recovery after multi-year droughts. This research is part of an integration project to examine the roles of drought, insect outbreak, and forest management activities on wildfire activity and its impacts. This project will provide improved information for forest managers and communities in the wild
Wang, Rui; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Alu, Si; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si; Dong, Zhenhua
Along with global warming, drought disasters are occurring more frequently and are seriously affecting normal life and food security in China. Drought risk assessments are necessary to provide support for local governments. This study aimed to establish an integrated drought risk model based on the relation curve of drought joint probabilities and drought losses of multi-hazard-affected bodies. First, drought characteristics, including duration and severity, were classified using the 1953-2010 precipitation anomaly in the Taoerhe Basin based on run theory, and their marginal distributions were identified by exponential and Gamma distributions, respectively. Then, drought duration and severity were related to construct a joint probability distribution based on the copula function. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate maize yield and historical data to calculate the loss rates of agriculture, industry, and animal husbandry in the study area. Next, we constructed vulnerability curves. Finally, the spatial distributions of drought risk for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods were expressed using inverse distance weighting. Our results indicate that the spatial distributions of the three return periods are consistent. The highest drought risk is in Ulanhot, and the duration and severity there were both highest. This means that higher drought risk corresponds to longer drought duration and larger drought severity, thus providing useful information for drought and water resource management. For 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, the drought risk values ranged from 0.41 to 0.53, 0.45 to 0.59, and 0.50 to 0.67, respectively. Therefore, when the return period increases, the drought risk increases.
Perčec Tadić, M.; Cindić, K.; Gajić-Čapka, M.; Zaninović, K.
Drought causes the highest economic losses among all hydro-meteorological events in Croatia. It is the most frequent hazard, which produces the highest damages in the agricultural sector. The climate assessment in Croatia according to the aridity index (defined as the ratio of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) shows that the susceptibility to desertification is present in the warm part of the year and it is mostly pronounced in the Adriatic region and the eastern Croatia lowland. The evidence of more frequent extreme drought events in the last decade is apparent. These facts were motivation to study the drought risk assessment in Croatia. One step in this issue is the construction of the vulnerability map. This map is a complex combination of the geomorphologic and climatological inputs (maps) that are presumed to be natural factors which modify the amount of moisture in the soil. In this study, the first version of the vulnerability map is followed by the updated one that additionally includes the soil types and the land use classes. The first input considered is the geomorphologic slope angle calculated from the digital elevation model (DEM). The SRTM DEM of 100 m resolution is used. The steeper slopes are more likely to lose water and to become dryer. The second climatological parameter, the solar irradiation map, gives for the territory of Croatia the maximum irradiation on the coast. The next meteorological parameter that influences the drought vulnerability is precipitation which is in this assessment included through the precipitation variability expressed by the coefficient of variation. Larger precipitation variability is related with the higher drought vulnerability. The preliminary results for Croatia, according to the recommended procedure in the framework of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE project), show the most sensitive areas to drought in the southern Adriatic coast and eastern continental lowland.
Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.
East Africa is affected by recurrent drought. The 2015-2016 El Niño triggered a severe drought across East Africa causing serious impacts to regional water security, health, and livelihoods. Ethiopia was the hardest hit, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs calling the recent drought the worst in 50 years. Resources to monitor the severity and progression of droughts are a critical component to disaster risk reduction, but are challenging to implement in regions with sparse data collection networks such as East Africa. Satellite data is used by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Global Information and Early Warning System, the USAID Famine Early Warning System, and the Africa Drought and Flood Monitor. These systems use remotely sensed vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological data to develop drought indices. However, they do not directly monitor impacts to water resources, which is necessary to appropriately target drought mitigation efforts. The current study combines new radar data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 mission with satellite imagery to perform a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2015-2016 drought in East Africa on regional surface water. Inland water body extents during the drought are compared to historical trends to identify the most severely impacted areas. The developed tool has the potential to support on-the-ground humanitarian relief efforts and to refine predictions of water scarcity and crop impacts from existing hydrologic models and famine early warning systems.
Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.; Porter, A.
Groundwater drought, defined as the sustained occurrence of below average availability of groundwater, is marked by below average water levels in aquifers and reduced flows to groundwater-fed rivers and wetlands. The impact of groundwater drought on ecosystems, agriculture, municipal water supply, and the energy sector is an increasingly important global issue. However, current drought monitors heavily rely on precipitation and vegetative stress indices to characterize the timing, duration, and severity of drought events. The paucity of in situ observations of aquifer levels is a substantial obstacle to the development of systems to monitor groundwater drought in drought-prone areas, particularly in developing countries. Observations from the NASA/German Space Agency's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been used to estimate changes in groundwater storage over areas with sparse point measurements. This study incorporates GRACE total water storage observations into a Bayesian framework to assess the performance of a probabilistic model for monitoring groundwater drought based on remote sensing data. Overall, it is hoped that these methods will improve global drought preparedness and risk reduction by providing information on groundwater drought necessary to manage its impacts on ecosystems, as well as on the agricultural, municipal, and energy sectors.
Řezníčková, Ladislava; Brázdil, Rudolf; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert
The study of droughts in the instrumental period can be based on various drought indices calculated usually from precipitation and temperature series. Documentary evidence, overlapping partly also with meteorological measurements, represents another important source utilisable particularly for the pre-instrumental period. Direct reports of drought or indirect indications of its impacts may be found in various individual or institutional sources: narrative written sources (annals, chronicles, commemorative records), weather diaries, personal and official correspondence, stall-keepers' and market songs, journalism, financial-economic records, religious sources (rogations, sermons, praying), special printed sources, chronograms, epigraphic sources ("hunger" stones). Corresponding data indicate directly meteorological drought and with describing of drought impacts also agricultural and hydrological droughts. The first credible direct drought information from the Czech Lands reports not any rain or snowfall during the 1090/1091 winter (Monk of Sázava). But data before AD 1500 are relatively scarce and they are related prevailingly to Bohemia. Density of precipitation/drought documentary records in the Czech Lands increases significantly after 1500. This allows create series of precipitation indices with classification of dry months in the scale -1 as dry, -2 as very dry and -3 as extremely dry month. Such dataset is important for the creation of 500-year Czech drought chronology.
Ateş Sönmezoğlu, Özlem; Terzi, Begüm
Because of its wide geographical adaptation and importance in human nutrition, wheat is one of the most important crops in the world. However, wheat yield has reduced due to drought stress posing threat to sustainability and world food security in agricultural production. The first stage of drought tolerant variety breeding occurs on the molecular and biochemical characterization and classification of wheat genotypes. The aim of the present study is characterization of widely grown bread wheat cultivars and breeding lines for drought tolerance so as to be adapted to different regions in Turkey. The genotypes were screened with molecular markers for the presence of QTLs mapped to different chromosomes. Results of the molecular studies identified and detected 15 polymorphic SSR markers which gave the clearest PCR bands among the control genotypes. At the end of the research, bread wheat genotypes which were classified for tolerance or sensitivity to drought and the genetic similarity within control varieties were determined by molecular markers. According to SSR based dendrogram, two main groups were obtained for drought tolerance. At end of the molecular screening with SSR primers, genetic similarity coefficients were obtained that ranged from 0.14 to 0.71. The ones numbered 8 and 11 were the closest genotypes to drought tolerant cultivar Gerek 79 and the furthest genotypes from this cultivar were number 16 and to drought sensitive cultivar Sultan 95. The genotypes as drought tolerance due to their SSR markers scores are expected to provide useful information for drought related molecular breeding studies.
Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao
Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...
Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir
Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.
Conrads, Paul; Darby, Lisa S.
A critical aspect of the uniqueness of coastal drought is the effects on the salinity dynamics of creeks, rivers, and estuaries. The location of the freshwater–saltwater interface along the coast is an important factor in the ecological and socioeconomic dynamics of coastal communities. Salinity is a critical response variable that integrates hydrologic and coastal dynamics including sea level, tides, winds, precipitation, streamflow, and tropical storms. The position of the interface determines the composition of freshwater and saltwater aquatic communities as well as the freshwater availability for water intakes. Many definitions of drought have been proposed, with most describing a decline in precipitation having negative impacts on the water supply. Indices have been developed incorporating data such as rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, and groundwater levels. These water-availability drought indices were developed for upland areas and may not be ideal for characterizing coastal drought. The availability of real-time and historical salinity datasets provides an opportunity for the development of a salinity-based coastal drought index. An approach similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was modified and applied to salinity data obtained from sites in South Carolina and Georgia. Using the SPI approach, the index becomes a coastal salinity index (CSI) that characterizes coastal salinity conditions with respect to drought periods of higher-saline conditions and wet periods of higher-freshwater conditions. Evaluation of the CSI indicates that it provides additional coastal response information as compared to the SPI and the Palmer hydrologic drought index, and the CSI can be used for different estuary types and for comparison of conditions along coastlines.
Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie
Droughts caused water shortages could lead to serious consequences on the socioeconomic and environmental well-being. In the context of changing climate, droughts monitoring, attributions and impact assessments have been performed using observations (e.g., Sun et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2016) and climate model projections (e.g., Liu et al., 2016, 2017); with expectation that such scientific knowledge would feed into long-term adaptation and mitigation plans to tackle potentially unfavorable future drought impacts in a warming world. Inspired by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts) experiments were set up to better inform international policymakers about the socioeconomic and environmental impacts under less severe global warming conditions. This study aims to understand the potential shift in meteorological droughts from the past into the future on a global scale. Based on the HAPPI data, we evaluate the change in drought related indices (i.e., PET/P, PDSI) from the past to the future scenarios (1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming). Here we present some early results (MIROC5 as demonstration) on identified hotspots and discuss the differences in severity of droughts between these warming worlds and associated consequences. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1 Liu W, and Sun F, 2016. Assessing estimates of evaporative demand in climate models using observed pan evaporation over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 121, 8329-8349 Zhang J, Sun F, Xu J, Chen Y, Sang Y, -F, and Liu C, 2016. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 206-213 Sun F, Roderick M, Farquhar G, 2012. Changes in the variability of global land precipitation
Struwe, Weston B; Agravat, Sanjay; Aoki-Kinoshita, Kiyoko F; Campbell, Matthew P; Costello, Catherine E; Dell, Anne; Ten Feizi; Haslam, Stuart M; Karlsson, Niclas G; Khoo, Kay-Hooi; Kolarich, Daniel; Liu, Yan; McBride, Ryan; Novotny, Milos V; Packer, Nicolle H; Paulson, James C; Rapp, Erdmann; Ranzinger, Rene; Rudd, Pauline M; Smith, David F; Tiemeyer, Michael; Wells, Lance; York, William S; Zaia, Joseph; Kettner, Carsten
The minimum information required for a glycomics experiment (MIRAGE) project was established in 2011 to provide guidelines to aid in data reporting from all types of experiments in glycomics research including mass spectrometry (MS), liquid chromatography, glycan arrays, data handling and sample preparation. MIRAGE is a concerted effort of the wider glycomics community that considers the adaptation of reporting guidelines as an important step towards critical evaluation and dissemination of datasets as well as broadening of experimental techniques worldwide. The MIRAGE Commission published reporting guidelines for MS data and here we outline guidelines for sample preparation. The sample preparation guidelines include all aspects of sample generation, purification and modification from biological and/or synthetic carbohydrate material. The application of MIRAGE sample preparation guidelines will lead to improved recording of experimental protocols and reporting of understandable and reproducible glycomics datasets. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Sharma, A.; Rashid, M.; Johnson, F.
Significant attention has been focussed on metrics for quantifying drought. Lesser attention has been given to the unsuitability of current metrics in quantifying drought in a changing climate due to the clear non-stationarity in potential and actual evapotranspiration well into the future (Asadi-Zarch et al, 2015). This talk presents a new basis for simulating drought designed specifically for use with climate model simulations. Given the known uncertainty of climate model rainfall simulations, along with their inability to represent low-frequency variability attributes, the approach here adopts a predictive model for drought using selected atmospheric indicators. This model is based on a wavelet decomposition of relevant atmospheric predictors to filter out less relevant frequencies and formulate a better characterisation of the drought metric chosen as response. Once ascertained using observed precipication and associated atmospheric variables, these can be formulated from GCM simulations using a multivariate bias correction tool (Mehrotra and Sharma, 2016) that accounts for low-frequency variability, and a regression tool that accounts for nonlinear dependence (Sharma and Mehrotra, 2014). Use of only the relevant frequencies, as well as the corrected representation of cross-variable dependence, allows greater accuracy in characterising observed drought, from GCM simulations. Using simulations from a range of GCMs across Australia, we show here that this new method offers considerable advantages in representing drought compared to traditionally followed alternatives that rely on modelled rainfall instead. Reference:Asadi Zarch, M. A., B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma (2015), Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), Journal of Hydrology, 526, 183-195. Mehrotra, R., and A. Sharma (2016), A Multivariate Quantile-Matching Bias Correction Approach with Auto- and Cross
Bachmair, S.; Tanguy, M.; Hannaford, J.; Stahl, K.
Drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW) systems are an important component of agriculture/silviculture drought risk assessment. Many operational information systems rely mostly on meteorological indicators, and a few incorporate vegetation state information. However, the relationships between meteorological drought indicators and agricultural/silvicultural drought impacts vary across Europe. The details of this variability have not been elucidated sufficiently on a continental scale in Europe to inform drought risk management at administrative scales. The objective of this study is to fill this gap and evaluate how useful the variety of meteorological indicators are to assess agricultural/silvicultural drought across Europe. The first part of the analysis systematically linked meteorological drought indicators to remote sensing based vegetation indices (VIs) for Europe at NUTs3 administrative regions scale using correlation analysis for crops and forests. In a second step, a stepwise multiple linear regression model was deployed to identify variables explaining the spatial differences observed. Finally, corn crop yield in Germany was chosen as a case study to verify VIs’ representativeness of agricultural drought impacts. Results show that short accumulation periods of SPI and SPEI are best linked to crop vegetation stress in most cases, which further validates the use of SPI3 in existing operational drought monitors. However, large regional differences in correlations are also revealed. Climate (temperature and precipitation) explained the largest proportion of variance, suggesting that meteorological indices are less informative of agricultural/silvicultural drought in colder/wetter parts of Europe. These findings provide important context for interpreting meteorological indices on widely used national to continental M&EW systems, leading to a better understanding of where/when such M&EW tools can be indicative of likely agricultural stress and impacts.
Stagge, J.; Rosenberg, D. E.
New advances in reconstructing streamflow from tree rings have permitted the reconstruction of flows back to the 1400s or earlier at a monthly, rather than annual, time scale. This is a critical step for incorporating centuries of streamflow reconstructions into water resources planning. Expanding the historical record is particularly important where the observed record contains few of these rare, but potentially disastrous extreme events. We present how a paleo-drought clustering approach was incorporated alongside more traditional water management planning in the Weber River basin, northern Utah. This study used newly developed monthly reconstructions of flow since 1430 CE and defined drought events as flow less than the 50th percentile during at least three contiguous months. Characteristics for each drought event included measures of drought duration, severity, cumulative loss, onset, seasonality, recession rate, and recovery rate. Reconstructed drought events were then clustered by hierarchical clustering to determine distinct drought "types" and the historical event that best represents the centroid of each cluster. The resulting 144 reconstructed drought events in the Weber basin clustered into nine distinct types, of which four were severe enough to potentially require drought management. Using the characteristic drought event for each of the severe drought clusters, water managers were able to estimate system reliability and the historical return frequency for each drought type. Plotting drought duration and severity from centuries of historical reconstructed events alongside observed events and climate change projections further placed recent events into a historical context. For example, the drought of record for the Weber River remains the most severe event in the record with regard to minimum flow percentile (1930, 7 years), but is far from the longest event in the longer historical record, where events beginning in 1658 and 1705 both lasted longer
Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Nahrawi, Siti Aishah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz; Zahari, Marina
In this research, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to represent the dry condition in Peninsular Malaysia. To do this, data of monthly rainfall from 75 stations in Peninsular Malaysia is used to obtain the SPI values at scale one. From the SPI values, two drought characteristics that are commonly used to represent the dry condition in an area that is the duration and severity of a drought period are identified and their respective values calculated for every station. Spatial mappings are then used to identify areas which are more likely to be affected by longer and more severe drought condition from the results. As the two drought characteristics may be correlated with each other, the joint distribution of severity and duration of dry condition is considered. Bivariate copula model is used and five copula models were tested, namely, the Gumbel-Hougard, Clayton, Frank, Joe and Galambos copulas. The copula model, which best represents the relationship between severity and duration, is determined using Akaike information criterion. The results showed that the Joe and Clayton copulas are well-fitted by close to 60% of the stations under study. Based on the results on the most appropriate copula-based joint distribution for each station, some bivariate probabilistic properties of droughts can then be calculated, which will be continued in future research.
Keywords: rice, Arabidopsis, drought, genetic mapping,microarray, transcription factor, AP2/ERF, SHINE, wax, stomata, comparative genetics, activation tagging, Ac/Ds, En/IThis thesis describes the use of genomics information and tools from Arabidopsis and
Araya, A.; Stroosnijder, L.
Long-term climate data of four stations in the northern Ethiopia were analyzed in combination with information from local farmers and documented materials. From this analysis, a suitable drought-assessing technique was developed and site-specific needs for supplementary irrigation were explored.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...
In many areas of the US, the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events are increasing, this brief highlights EPA drought and conservation activities across the nation and includes links to additional materials and reference documents.
Teuling, Adriaan J.
Low soil moisture conditions can induce drought but also elevate temperatures. Detailed modelling of the drought-temperature link now shows that rising global temperature will bring drier soils and higher heatwave temperatures in Europe.
Du, Hewei; Zhou, Yufan; Oksenberg, Nir; Ronald, Pamela
The invention provides methods of genetically modified plants to increase tolerance to drought and/or submergence. The invention additionally provides plants having increased drought and/or submergence tolerance engineered using such methods.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...
Mishra, Ashok K.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Das, Narendra N.; Prakash Khedun, C.; Singh, Vijay P.; Sivakumar, Bellie; Hansen, James W.
Drought is of global concern for society but it originates as a local problem. It has a significant impact on water quantity and quality and influences food, water, and energy security. The consequences of drought vary in space and time, from the local scale (e.g. county level) to regional scale (e.g. state or country level) to global scale. Within the regional scale, there are multiple socio-economic impacts (i.e., agriculture, drinking water supply, and stream health) occurring individually or in combination at local scales, either in clusters or scattered. Even though the application of aggregated drought information at the regional level has been useful in drought management, the latter can be further improved by evaluating the structure and evolution of a drought at the local scale. This study addresses a local-scale agricultural drought anatomy in Story County in Iowa, USA. This complex problem was evaluated using assimilated AMSR-E soil moisture and MODIS-LAI data into a crop model to generate surface and sub-surface drought indices to explore the anatomy of an agricultural drought. Quantification of moisture supply in the root zone remains a gray area in research community, this challenge can be partly overcome by incorporating assimilation of soil moisture and leaf area index into crop modeling framework for agricultural drought quantification, as it performs better in simulating crop yield. It was noted that the persistence of subsurface droughts is in general higher than surface droughts, which can potentially improve forecast accuracy. It was found that both surface and subsurface droughts have an impact on crop yields, albeit with different magnitudes, however, the total water available in the soil profile seemed to have a greater impact on the yield. Further, agricultural drought should not be treated equal for all crops, and it should be calculated based on the root zone depth rather than a fixed soil layer depth. We envisaged that the results of
Loon, van A.F.
Drought is a severe natural disaster resulting in high economic loss and huge ecological and societal impacts. In this thesis drought is defined as a period of below-normal water availability in precipitation (meteorological drought), soil moisture (soil moisture drought), or groundwater and
The False Thornveld of the Eastern Cape experienced a particularly intense drought during the 1982/1983 growing season. Extensive grass mortality took place during the drought. After the drought, recovery was particularly sensitive to the post-drought management treatment applied. Veld that was grazed immediately ...
Nyabeze, W. R.; Dlamini, L.; Lahlou, O.; Imani, Y.; Alaoui, S. B.; Vermooten, J. S. A.
Drought is one of the major natural hazards in many parts of the world, including Africa and some regions in Europe. Drought events have resulted in extensive damages to livelihoods, environment and economy. In 2011, a consortium consisting of 19 organisations from both Africa and Europe started a project (DEWFORA) aimed at developing a framework for the provision of early warning and response through drought impact mitigation for Africa. This framework covers the whole chain from monitoring and vulnerability assessment to forecasting, warning, response and knowledge dissemination. This paper presents the first results of the capacity assessment of drought monitoring and forecasting systems in Africa, the existing institutional frameworks and drought mitigation and adaptation practices. Its focus is particularly on the historical drought mitigation and adaptation actions identified in the North Africa - Maghreb Region (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) and in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. This is based on an extensive review of historical drought experiences. From the 1920's to 2009, the study identified 37 drought seasons in the North African - Maghreb Region and 33 drought seasons in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. Existing literature tends to capture the spatial extent of drought at national and administrative scale in great detail. This is driven by the need to map drought impacts (food shortage, communities affected) in order to inform drought relief efforts (short-term drought mitigation measures). However, the mapping of drought at catchment scale (hydrological unit), required for longer-term measures, is not well documented. At regional level, both in North Africa and Southern Africa, two organisations are involved in drought monitoring and forecasting, while at national level 22 organisations are involved in North Africa and 37 in Southern Africa. Regarding drought related mitigation actions, the inventory shows that the most common actions
Drought is an important factor limiting crop production in arid and semi-arid conditions. Drought indices which provide a measure of drought based on yield loss under drought condition in comparison to normal condition was used for screening drought-tolerant genotypes. This study was conducted to determine drought ...
Aurich, D.; Wobst, K.; Kafka, H.
The aim of the paper is to review the present knowledge regarding the ability of wide plate tensile specimen with saw cut trough center flaws of providing accurate information on component reliability; it points out the advantages and disadvantages of this specimen geometries. The effect of temperature, specimen geometry, ligament size and notch radii are discussed in comparison with other specimen geometries. This is followed by a comparison of the results of such tests with tests on inside stressed tanks. Conclusions: wide-plate tensile specimen are generally appropriate for assessing welded joints. However, they result in a more favourable evaluation of low-toughness steels from the point of view of crack growth than of high-toughness and soft steels in case of stresses with incipient cracks, as compared with the results obtained with three-point bending samples. (orig.) [de
Jalal-ud-Din; Khan, S.U.; Gurmani, A.R.
A pot study was undertaken to assess the effect of drought stress imposed at various growth stages on growth, physiological and biochemical attributes of wheat. Five commercial wheat cultivars viz. Chakwal-97, Inqalab-91, Margalla-99, NR-234 and Wafaq-2001 were grown in pots. The plants were subjected to three consecutive drought cycles at tillering, pre-anthesis and milky growth stages. Measurements pertaining to various physiological and biochemical parameters such as relative water content (RWC), proline, superoxide dismutase (SOD), membrane stability index (MSI), yield and yield components were made. Significant reduction in grain yield was observed in all the test varieties when drought was imposed at any growth stage. The reduction was highest (39-64%) when stress was imposed at pre-anthesis followed by tillering growth stage. The wheat variety Wafaq-2001 and Inqalab-91 performed better by giving higher yield and produced greater numbers of filled seeds per spike compared to other varieties. Under water stress proline contents were higher in the drought-tolerant cultivar Wafaq-2001. The same variety showed higher membrane stability index and antioxidant enzymes (SOD) activity under drought stress conditions. The results suggest that pre-anthesis growth stage is the most sensitive towards drought stress. Wheat cultivars: Wafaq-2001 and Inqalab-91 showed best tolerance response against drought stress. Higher proline, RWC and SOD activity under drought stress seems to be the most reliable parameters enabling the discrimination of varieties for drought tolerance. (author)
Irlbauer-Müller, Viktoria; Eichler, Anna; Stemmler, Mark; Moll, Gunther H; Kratz, Oliver
Information from parents is regularly used in the diagnostic process of children and adolescents with psychiatric symptoms. But the reliability of this information is debatable, because the parents’ own stress can distort their perceptions of the child’s symptoms. For each of N = 68 children and adolescents (11–18 years) who were using mental health services for the first time, we evaluated the ratings of a parent and a professional clinician (internalizing, externalizing symptoms, total-problem score). In addition, parenting stress was scored on the Eltern-Belastungs-Inventars (EBI, Tröster, 2011), which measures both child-related stress and parent-related stress as well as total stress. Highly stressed parent ratings differed more from the clinicians’ ratings than the ratings of less stressed parents. Additionally, correlations showed that higher parenting stress resulted in larger differences between the parent’s and the clinician’s assessments. Multiple regressions proved the predictive value of child-caused parenting stress for these differences. These results apply for internalizing symptoms, externalizing symptoms, and total-problem score. Parenting stress should be evaluated systematically in order to carefully assess the value of the information from parents and to determine how it should be included in diagnostic and therapeutical decisions.
Feb 23, 2015 ... for a beneficial effect of PGPRs application in enhancing drought tolerance of rice under water deficit conditions. ..... involvement of PGPRs in ROS metabolism in rice plants. ... osmoregulatory solute in plants (Kumar et al., 2011). ..... Pseudomonas fluorescens mediated saline resistance in groundnut.
Somer, Edward J.R.; Marsden, Paul K.; Benatar, Nigel A.; O'Doherty, Michael J.; Goodey, Joanne; Smith, Michael A.
The fusion of functional positron emission tomography (PET) data with anatomical magnetic resonance (MR) or computed tomography images, using a variety of interactive and automated techniques, is becoming commonplace, with the technique of choice dependent on the specific application. The case of PET-MR image fusion in soft tissue is complicated by a lack of conspicuous anatomical features and deviation from the rigid-body model. Here we compare a point-based external marker technique with an automated mutual information algorithm and discuss the practicality, reliability and accuracy of each when applied to the study of soft tissue sarcoma. Ten subjects with suspected sarcoma in the knee, thigh, groin, flank or back underwent MR and PET scanning after the attachment of nine external fiducial markers. In the assessment of the point-based technique, three error measures were considered: fiducial localisation error (FLE), fiducial registration error (FRE) and target registration error (TRE). FLE, which represents the accuracy with which the fiducial points can be located, is related to the FRE minimised by the registration algorithm. The registration accuracy is best characterised by the TRE, which is the distance between corresponding points in each image space after registration. In the absence of salient features within the target volume, the TRE can be measured at fiducials excluded from the registration process. To assess the mutual information technique, PET data, acquired after physically removing the markers, were reconstructed in a variety of ways and registered with MR. Having applied the transform suggested by the algorithm to the PET scan acquired before the markers were removed, the residual distance between PET and MR marker-pairs could be measured. The manual point-based technique yielded the best results (RMS TRE =8.3 mm, max =22.4 mm, min =1.7 mm), performing better than the automated algorithm (RMS TRE =20.0 mm, max =30.5 mm, min =7.7 mm) when
William H. Schlesinger; Michael C. Dietze; Robert B. Jackson; Richard P. Phillips; Charles C. Rhoades; Lindsey E. Rustad; James M. Vose
Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2O and CH4) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil....
Slot, M.; Poorter, L.
Drought is an important seedling mortality agent in dry and moist tropical forests, and more severe and frequent droughts are predicted in the future. The effect of drought on leaf gas exchange and seedling survival was tested in a dry-down experiment with four tree species from dry and moist
Keywords: Drought management strategies; Herd structures; KwaZulu/Natal; Labour costs; Net present values; Simulation modelling; drought; drought management; management strategy; cattle; semi-arid; savanna; south africa; net present value; simulation model; domestic stock; economics. African Journal of Range ...
Maize is moderately sensitive to drought. Drought affects virtually all aspects of maize growth in varying degrees at all stages, from germination to maturity. Tolerance to drought is genetically and physiologically complicated and inherited quantitatively. Application of molecular-marker aided selection technique for ...
Özerol, Gül; Stein, Ulf; Troeltzsch, Jenny; Landgrebe, Ruta; Szendrenyi, Anna; Vidaurre, Rodrigo; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne
Over the last decade, Europe’s drought management and policy has been characterized by a predominantly crisis-oriented approach. However, the widening gap between the impacts of drought episodes and the ability to prepare, manage and mitigate such droughts has motivated the European Union (EU) to
Gazol, Antonio; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Gutiérrez, Emilia; de Luis, Martin; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Novak, Klemen; Rozas, Vicente; Tíscar, Pedro A; Linares, Juan C; Martín-Hernández, Natalia; Martínez Del Castillo, Edurne; Ribas, Montse; García-González, Ignacio; Silla, Fernando; Camisón, Alvaro; Génova, Mar; Olano, José M; Longares, Luis A; Hevia, Andrea; Tomás-Burguera, Miquel; Galván, J Diego
Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Patrick D. Culbert; Brian D. Wardlow; Volker C. Radeloff
Droughts are expected to become more frequent under global climate change. Avifauna depend on precipitation for hydration, cover, and food. While there are indications that avian communities respond negatively to drought, little is known about the response of birds with differing functional and behavioural traits, what time periods and indicators of drought are most...
Full Text Available Drought is a complex natural hazard which can have negative effects on agriculture, economy, and human life. In this paper, the primary goal is to explore the application of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE gravity satellite data for the quantitative investigation of the recent drought dynamic over the arid land of northwestern China, a region with scarce hydrological and meteorological observation datasets. The spatiotemporal characteristics of terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC were first evaluated based on the GRACE satellite data, and then validated against hydrological model simulations and precipitation data. A drought index, the total storage deficit index (TSDI, was derived on the basis of GRACE-recovered TWSC. The spatiotemporal distributions of drought events from 2003 to 2012 in the study region were obtained using the GRACE-derived TSDI. Results derived from TSDI time series indicated that, apart from four short-term (three months drought events, the study region experienced a severe long-term drought from May 2008 to December 2009. As shown in the spatial distribution of TSDI-derived drought conditions, this long-term drought mainly concentrated in the northwestern area of the entire region, where the terrestrial water storage was in heavy deficit. These drought characteristics, which were detected by TSDI, were consistent with local news reports and other researchers’ results. Furthermore, a comparison between TSDI and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI implied that GRACE TSDI was a more reliable integrated drought indicator (monitoring agricultural and hydrological drought in terms of considering total terrestrial water storages for large regions. The GRACE-derived TSDI can therefore be used to characterize and monitor large-scale droughts in the arid regions, being of special value for areas with scarce observations.
Full Text Available Accurate and reliable drought monitoring is of primary importance for drought mitigation and reduction of social-ecological vulnerability. The aim of the paper was to propose a short-term/long-term composited drought index (CDI which could be widely used for drought monitoring and early warning in China. In the study, the upper Huaihe River basin above the Xixian gauge station, which has been hit by severe droughts frequently in recent decades, was selected as the case study site. The short-term CDI was developed by the Principle Component Analysis of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI, the 1- and 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, Z Index (ZIND, the Soil Moisture Index (SMI with the long-term CDI being formulated by use of the self-calibrating Palmer Hydrology Drought Index (sc-PHDI, the 6-, 12-, 18- and 24-month SPEI, the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI, the SMI. The sc-PDSI, the PHDI, the ZIND, the SPEI on a monthly time scale were calculated based on the monthly air temperature and precipitation, and the monthly SMI and SSI were computed based on the simulated soil moisture and runoff by the distributed Xinanjiang model. The thresholds of the short-term/long-term CDI were determined according to frequency statistics of different drought indices. Finally, the feasibility of the two CDIs was investigated against the scPDSI, the SPEI and the historical drought records. The results revealed that the short-term/long-term CDI could capture the onset, severity, persistence of drought events very well with the former being better at identifying the dynamic evolution of drought condition while the latter better at judging the changing trend of drought over a long time period.
Mustafa, Syed Md. Touhidul; Abdollahi, Khodayar; Verbeiren, Boud; Huysmans, Marijke
Groundwater drought is a specific type of hydrological drought that concerns groundwater bodies. It may have a significant adverse effect on the socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental conditions. Investigating the effect of different climatic and anthropogenic factors on groundwater drought provides essential information for sustainable planning and management of (ground) water resources. The aim of this study is to identify the influencing factors on groundwater drought in north-western Bangladesh, to understand the forcing mechanisms. A multi-step methodology is proposed to achieve this objective. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI) have been used to quantify the aggregated deficit between precipitation and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, i.e. meteorological drought. The influence of land-cover patterns on the groundwater drought has been identified by calculating spatially distributed groundwater recharge as a function of land cover. Groundwater drought is defined by a threshold method. The results show that the evapotranspiration and rainfall deficits are determining meteorological drought, which shows a direct relation with groundwater recharge deficits. Land-cover change has a small effect on groundwater recharge but does not seem to be the main cause of groundwater-level decline (depletion) in the study area. The groundwater depth and groundwater-level deficit (drought) is continuously increasing with little correlation to meteorological drought or recharge anomalies. Overexploitation of groundwater for irrigation seems to be the main cause of groundwater-level decline in the study area. Efficient irrigation management is essential to reduce the growing pressure on groundwater resources and ensure sustainable water management.
Zhao, Haiyan; Gao, Ge; An, Wei; Zou, Xukai; Li, Haitao; Hou, Meiting
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been widely used to monitor drought. Its characteristics are more suitable for measuring droughts of longer timescales, and this fact has not received much attention. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) can better reflect the climatic water balance, owing to its combination of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In this study, we selected monthly average air temperature and precipitation data from 589 meteorological stations of China's National Meteorological Information Center, to compare the effects of applying a self-calibrating PDSI (SC-PDSI) and SPEI to monitor drought events in the station regions, with a special focus on differences of event timescale. The results show the following. 1) Comparative analysis using SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought years and characters of three dry periods from 1961 to 2011 in the Beijing region showed that durations of SC-PDSI-based dry spells were longer than those of 3-month and 6-month SPEIs, but equal to those of 12-month or longer timescale SPEIs. 2) For monitoring evolution of the fall 2009 to spring 2010 Southwest China drought and spring 2000 Huang-Huai drought, 3-month SPEI could better monitor the initiation, aggravation, alleviation and relief of drought in the two regions, whereas the SC-PDSI was insensitive to drought recovery because of its long-term memory of previous climate conditions. 3) Analysis of the relationship between SC-PDSI for different regions and SPEI for different timescales showed that correlation of the two indexes changed with region, and SC-PDSI was maximally correlated with SPEI of 9-19 months in China. Therefore, SC-PDSI is only suitable for monitoring mid- and long-term droughts, owing to the strong lagged autocorrelation such as 0.4786 for 12-month lagged ones in Beijing, whereas SPEI is suitable for both short- and long-term drought-monitoring and should have greater application prospects in China.
Full Text Available Water availability problem is encountered by Cengklik Reservoir due to drought disaster in the current year. It causes irrigation water crisis over 850 hectares crop field which of 350 hectares were not cultivated. The risk that must be faced by farmers is decrease in potential productivity, losses about more than 2.5 billion. Therefore, it needs technical solution to reduce this drought disaster risk. To obtain an alternative solution against water availability problem for drought disaster mitigation, this research used optimization of reservoir standard operating simulation. It applies field area of rice or Palawija at the second and/or the third cultivation season as decision variable, maximum productivity value as objective function, irrigation water demand as parameter depending on specified alternative crop pattern and schedule, and several constraints comprising 100% of reservoir reliability, all field is irrigated at the first and second season in which maximum non-irrigated crop field at the third cultivation season are 300 hectares. The tool used to conduct optimization was Microsoft Excel software. The result showed that crop pattern considered as an alternative solution against water availability problem in Cengklik reservoir is paddy-paddy-maize at the early of November II cultivated over 433 hectares and 1524 hectares. Risk reduction reached 9.33% in term of reservoir reliability, 23.61% in term of irrigated area, and 27.29% in term of vulnerability towards water availability crisis.
Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)
Ehsan EYSHI REZAEI; Azade MOHAMMADIAN; Mansoreh KOOHI; Mohammad BANNAYAN
Drought is one of the natural disasters which deeply influenced agricultural production. Drought monitoring programs could help to forecast and mitigate the impacts of drought. In this study occurrence, severity, and duration of drought were evaluated by monthly rainfall data (1986-2005) that were recorded at all meteorological stations in north Khorasan province of Iran. Drought indices include Standard Rainfall Index (SPI), Decades Index (DI) and Percent of Normal (PNI) calculated and compa...
Parry, Simon; Barker, Lucy; Hannaford, Jamie; Prudhomme, Christel; Smith, Katie; Svensson, Cecilia; Tanguy, Maliko
Hydrological droughts of the last 50 years in the UK have been well characterised owing to a relatively dense hydrometric network. Prior to this, observed river flow data were generally limited in their spatial coverage and often subject to considerable uncertainty. Whilst qualitative records indicate the occurrence of severe droughts in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, including scenarios which may cause substantial impacts to contemporary water supply systems, existing observations are not sufficient to describe their spatio-temporal characteristics. As such, insights on drought in the UK are constrained and a range of stakeholders including water companies and regulators would benefit from a more thorough assessment of historic drought characteristics and their variability. The multi-disciplinary Historic Droughts project aims to rigorously characterise droughts in the UK to inform improved drought management and communication. Driven by rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data that have been extended using recovered records, lumped catchment hydrological models are used to reconstruct daily river flows from 1890 to 2015 for more than 200 catchments across the UK. The reconstructions are derived within a state-of-the-art modelling framework which allows a comprehensive assessment of model, structure and parameter uncertainty. Standardised and threshold-based indicators are applied to the river flow reconstructions to identify and characterise hydrological drought events. The reconstructions are most beneficial in comprehensively describing well known but poorly quantified late 19th and early 20th century droughts, placing the spatial and temporal footprint of these often extreme events within the context of modern episodes for the first time. Oscillations between drought-rich and drought-poor periods are shown not to be limited to the recent observational past, providing an increased sample size of events against which to test a range of airflow and
The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture
The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)
Macapagal, Marco D.; Olivares, Resi O.; Perez, Gay Jane P.
Drought is a recurrent extreme climate event that can cause crop damage and yield loss, thereby inflicting negative socioeconomic impacts all over the world. According to several climate studies, drought events may be more frequent and more severe as global warming progresses. As an agricultural country, the Philippines is highly susceptible to adverse impacts of drought using remotely sensed information and geographic processing techniques. An agricultural drought vulnerability map identifying croplands that are least vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and most vulnerable to crop water-related stress, was developed. Vulnerability factors, including land use system, irrigation support. Available soil-water holding capacity, as well as satellite-derived evapotranspiration and rainfall, were taken into consideration in classifying and mapping agricultural drought vulnerability at a national level. (author)
... online resources. Online Medical Dictionaries and Encyclopedias Complex medical terminology can be difficult to understand. The Web provides some excellent resources to aid in our understanding of these terms and medical jargon. NHGRI Talking Glossary of Genetic Terms www. ...
Durum wheat is widely grown as a rainfed crop in the semi-arid tropics. Its production is low and variable from season to season due to frequent drought-stress. Characterization of target environment and employing both analytical and empirical breeding approaches would speed up progress in
Full Text Available We have investigated drought periodicities occurred in Seoul to find out any indication of relationship between drought in Korea and solar activities. It is motivated, in view of solar-terrestrial connection, to search for an example of extreme weather condition controlled by solar activity. The periodicity of drought in Seoul has been re-examined using the wavelet transform technique as the consensus is not achieved yet. The reason we have chosen Seoul is because daily precipitation was recorded for longer than 200 years, which meets our requirement that analyses of drought frequency demand long-term historical data to ensure reliable estimates. We have examined three types of time series of the Effective Drought Index (EDI. We have directly analyzed EDI time series in the first place. And we have constructed and analyzed time series of histogram in which the number of days whose EDI is less than -1.5 for a given month of the year is given as a function of time, and one in which the number of occasions where EDI values of three consecutive days are all less than -1.5 is given as a function of time. All the time series data sets we analyzed are periodic. Apart from the annual cycle due to seasonal variations, periodicities shorter than the 11 year sunspot cycle, ~ 3, ~ 4, ~ 6 years, have been confirmed. Periodicities to which theses short periodicities (shorter than Hale period may be corresponding are not yet known. Longer periodicities possibly related to Gleissberg cycles, ~ 55, ~ 120 years, can be also seen. However, periodicity comparable to the 11 year solar cycle seems absent in both EDI and the constructed data sets.
Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology -- both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Full Text Available In this paper, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR is analyzed for the assessment of meteorological drought. The evaluation is conducted over China at 0.5° spatial resolution against a ground-based gridded China monthly Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP from 1983 to 2014 (32 years. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at various time scales (1 month to 12 months is calculated for detecting drought events. The results show that PERSIANN-CDR depicts similar drought behavior as the ground-based CPAP in terms of capturing the spatial and temporal patterns of drought events over eastern China, where the intensity of gauge networks and the frequency of droughts are high. 6-month SPI shows the best agreement with CPAP in identifying drought months. However, large differences between PERSIANN-CDR and CPAP in depicting drought patterns and identifying specific drought events are found over northwestern China, particularly in Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Factors behind this may be due to the relatively sparse gauge networks, the complicated terrain and the performance of PERSIANN algorithm.
Dong, Heng; Li, Jun; Yuan, Yanbin; You, Lin; Chen, Chao
In recent decades, various kinds of remote sensing-based drought indexes have been proposed and widely used in the field of drought monitoring. However, the drought-related software and platform development lag behind the theoretical research. The current drought monitoring systems focus mainly on information management and publishing, and cannot implement professional drought monitoring or parameter inversion modelling, especially the models based on multi-dimensional feature space. In view of the above problems, this paper aims at fixing this gap with a component-based system named RSDMS to facilitate the application of drought monitoring by remote sensing. The system is designed and developed based on Component Object Model (COM) to ensure the flexibility and extendibility of modules. RSDMS realizes general image-related functions such as data management, image display, spatial reference management, image processing and analysis, and further provides drought monitoring and evaluation functions based on internal and external models. Finally, China's Ningxia region is selected as the study area to validate the performance of RSDMS. The experimental results show that RSDMS provide an efficient and scalable support to agricultural drought monitoring.
Full Text Available In recent decades, various kinds of remote sensing-based drought indexes have been proposed and widely used in the field of drought monitoring. However, the drought-related software and platform development lag behind the theoretical research. The current drought monitoring systems focus mainly on information management and publishing, and cannot implement professional drought monitoring or parameter inversion modelling, especially the models based on multi-dimensional feature space. In view of the above problems, this paper aims at fixing this gap with a component-based system named RSDMS to facilitate the application of drought monitoring by remote sensing. The system is designed and developed based on Component Object Model (COM to ensure the flexibility and extendibility of modules. RSDMS realizes general image-related functions such as data management, image display, spatial reference management, image processing and analysis, and further provides drought monitoring and evaluation functions based on internal and external models. Finally, China's Ningxia region is selected as the study area to validate the performance of RSDMS. The experimental results show that RSDMS provide an efficient and scalable support to agricultural drought monitoring.
Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Maureira, Héctor; Rojas, Pablo; Alejandro Gutiérrez Valdés, Sergio; Verbist, Koen
Drought and water scarcity are important hazards and can lead to severe socio-economic impacts in many regions of the world. Given the interlinked interactions and feedbacks of hydrological droughts and their impacts and management, we need tools to evaluate these complexities and effects on the availability of water resources. Here we use a real-world case study of the Huasco basin (Northern Chile) in which we quantify the influence of human activities on hydrological drought signals. In this arid region, Andean snowmelt provides water essential for users, with agriculture acting as the main water consumer (85% of total). An increasing water demand from different water sectors (agriculture, mining, and domestic water usage) has increased pressure on available water and its management. Consequently, the Santa Juana dam was built by 1995 to increase irrigation security for downstream users, and recent management and restrictions have been established with the objective to limit impacts of hydrological droughts across the basin. The feedbacks between water availability and water management are explored for this water stressed region in Chile. Hydro-meteorological (e.g. precipitation, temperature, streamflow, reservoir levels) variables have been analysed to assess trends and drought patterns. Data over the past three decades has indicated a decrease in surface water supply, with the basin entering a situation of water scarcity during the recent multiyear drought (2007 - to-date), partly caused by meteorological drought and partly by abstraction. During this period, water supply failed to meet the demands of water users, resulting in the implementation of water restrictions. As well as the necessary continuous hydro-meteorological data, here we used information on human water users and scenario modeling, allowing for the analysis and quantification of feedbacks. This work highlights the importance of local knowledge, especially in understanding water laws, rights
Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Clark, Julian; Rangecroft, Sally; Wanders, Niko; Gleeson, Tom; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hannaford, Jamie; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Hannah, David M.; Sheffield, Justin; Svoboda, Mark; Verbeiren, Boud; Wagener, Thorsten; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.
In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what
Bento, J.P.; Boerje, S.; Ericsson, G.; Hasler, A.; Lyden, C.O.; Wallin, L.; Poern, K.; Aakerlund, O.
The main objective for the report is to improve failure data for reliability calculations as parts of safety analyses for Swedish nuclear power plants. The work is based primarily on evaluations of failure reports as well as information provided by the operation and maintenance staff of each plant. In the report are presented charts of reliability data for: pumps, valves, control rods/rod drives, electrical components, and instruments. (L.E.)
Droughts cause important losses. On the Iberian Peninsula, for example, non-irrigated agriculture and the tourism sector are affected in regular intervals. The goal of this study is the description of droughts and their dependence in the Duero basin in Central Spain. To do so, daily or monthly precipitation data is used. Here cumulative precipitation deficits below a threshold define meteorological droughts. This drought indicator is similar to the commonly used standard precipitation index. However, here the focus lies on the modeling of severe droughts, which is done by applying multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT) to model extreme drought events. Data from several stations are assessed jointly, thus the uncertainty of the results is reduced. Droughts are a complex phenomenon, their severity, spatial extension and duration has to be taken into account. Our approach captures severity and spatial extension. In general we find a high correlation between deficit volumes and drought duration, thus the duration is not explicitely modeled. We apply a MEVT model with asymmetric logistic dependence function, which is capable to model asymptotic dependence and independence (cf. Ramos and Ledford, 2009). To summarize the information on the dependence in the joint tail of the extreme drought events, we utilise the fragility index (Geluk et al., 2007). Results show that droughts also occur frequently in winter. Moreover, it is very common for one site to suffer dry conditions, whilst neighboring areas experience normal or even humid conditions. Interpolation is thus difficult. Bivariate extremal dependence is present in the data. However, most stations are at least asymptotically independent. The according fragility indices are important information for risk calculations. The emerging spatial patterns for bivariate dependence are mostly influenced by topography. When looking at the dependence between more than two stations, it shows that joint extremes can occur more
Full Text Available Plant responses to drought stress are complex due to various mechanisms of drought avoidance and tolerance to maintain growth. Traditional plant phenotyping methods are labor-intensive, time-consuming, and subjective. Plant phenotyping by integrating kinetic chlorophyll fluorescence with multicolor fluorescence imaging can acquire plant morphological, physiological, and pathological traits related to photosynthesis as well as its secondary metabolites, which will provide a new means to promote the progress of breeding for drought tolerant accessions and gain economic benefit for global agriculture production. Combination of kinetic chlorophyll fluorescence and multicolor fluorescence imaging proved to be efficient for the early detection of drought stress responses in the Arabidopsis ecotype Col-0 and one of its most affected mutants called reduced hyperosmolality-induced [Ca2+]i increase 1. Kinetic chlorophyll fluorescence curves were useful for understanding the drought tolerance mechanism of Arabidopsis. Conventional fluorescence parameters provided qualitative information related to drought stress responses in different genotypes, and the corresponding images showed spatial heterogeneities of drought stress responses within the leaf and the canopy levels. Fluorescence parameters selected by sequential forward selection presented high correlations with physiological traits but not morphological traits. The optimal fluorescence traits combined with the support vector machine resulted in good classification accuracies of 93.3 and 99.1% for classifying the control plants from the drought-stressed ones with 3 and 7 days treatments, respectively. The results demonstrated that the combination of kinetic chlorophyll fluorescence and multicolor fluorescence imaging with the machine learning technique was capable of providing comprehensive information of drought stress effects on the photosynthesis and the secondary metabolisms. It is a promising
Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.
Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.
As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and
Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.
There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude
Full Text Available Drought is one of the major factors limiting chickpea production in arid and semi arid regions. There is meagre information available regarding genotypic variation for drought tolerance in chickpea genotypes. Present investigation was carried out to find out the influence of salicylic acid (SA on drought tolerance in four chickpea genotypes. Reduction in relative injury was observed in plants treated with SA @1.5 mM as compared to control seedlings. Relationship between relative water content (RWC, membrane permeability (MP, ascorbic acid (AsA, proline, lipid peroxidation (LPO, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2, catalase (CAT, peroxidase (POX, superoxide dismutase (SOD, ascorbate peroxidase (APX was determined in order to find out whether these parameters can be used as selection criteria for drought tolerance in this crop. Results indicate wide variation in tolerance to drought stress amongst chickpea cultivars at both the critical stages i.e. pre- and post-anthesis. On the basis of growth and antioxidant activity better genotypes Tyson and ICC-4958 appear to be adapted to drought stress tolerance. Early drought stress (pre-anthesis drought was found to be more damaging than the late drought stress (post- anthesis drought.
Palmer, Jonathan G.; Cook, Edward R.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Allen, Kathy; Fenwick, Pavla; Cook, Benjamin I.; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice; Grierson, Pauline; Baker, Patrick
Agricultural production across eastern Australia and New Zealand is highly vulnerable to drought, but there is a dearth of observational drought information prior to CE (Christian Era) 1850. Using a comprehensive network of 176 drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies and one coral series, we report the first Southern Hemisphere gridded drought atlas extending back to CE 1500. The austral summer (December-February) Palmer drought sensitivity index reconstruction accurately reproduces historically documented drought events associated with the first European settlement of Australia in CE 1788, and the leading principal component explains over 50 percent of the underlying variance. This leading mode of variability is strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation tripole index (IPO), with a strong and robust antiphase correlation between (1) eastern Australia and the New Zealand North Island and (2) the South Island. Reported positive, negative, and neutral phases of the IPO are consistently reconstructed by the drought atlas although the relationship since CE 1976 appears to have weakened.
Lund, J. R.
The current California drought is in its third dry years, with this year being the third driest years in a 106-year record. This drought occurs at a time when urban, agricultural, and environmental water demands have never been greater. This drought has revealed the importance of more quantitative evaluation and methods for water assessment and management. All areas of water and environmental management are likely to become increasingly stressed, and have essentially drought-like conditions, in the future, as California's urban, agricultural, and environmental demands continue to expand and as the climate changes. In the historical past, droughts have pre-viewed stresses developing in the future and helped focus policy-makers, the public, and stakeholders on preparing for these developing future conditions. Multi-decade water management strategies are often galvinized by drought. Irrigation was galvanized by California droughts in the 1800s, reservoir systems by the 1928-32 drought, urban water conservation by the 1976-77 drought, and water markets by the 1988-92 drought. With each drought, demands for tighter accounting, rights, and management have increased. This talk reviews the prospects and challenges for increased development and use of water data and systems analysis in the service of human and environmental water demands in California's highly decentralized water management system, and the prospects if these challenges are not more successfully addressed.
Full Text Available According to different relevant climate research water shortage hazard become increasingly frequent natural hazard across Serbia. In Serbia, especially in Vojvodina, drought is a natural hazard with increasing frequency of occurrence. Vojvodina is predominantly agricultural area with 11% of agricultural population. As such agricultural population is highly sensitive to natural hazards, especially to occurrence of drought which is typical for the territory of Vojvodina. Drought has influence on the environment and human activities, i.e. it has social and economic consequences, such as drinking water shortage or decline in crop yield. Therefore this paper has several aims. First goal is to explore socio demographic profiles and agricultural characteristic of agricultural population and stakeholders in research area. Secondly to examine farmers' attitudes to possible damage prevention and adaptive measures to climate change in the sector of agricultural production. Third goal is to analyze respondent's opinion toward drought prediction. Finally the study examines opinion of respondents on the role of government institutions in providing assistance and support to farmers and to agricultural development in the region. In depth semi structural interviewing were carried out. Results show lack of knowledge among respondents that water shortage can be precisely and in time predicted to help agriculture prepare and prevent possible draft damages. As the main problems in agriculture, the local agricultural population lists absence of strategic planning and management of agrarian policy, as well as absence of state support to farmers in agriculture development. Necessary assistance for alleviation of adverse drought consequences includes subsidies for irrigation, improvement and reconstruction of the existing irrigation systems; organized and planned state management of agrarian policy; creating precise methods of forecast of drought periods and timely
del Jesus, M.; Sheffield, J.; Méndez Incera, F. J.; Losada, I. J.; Espejo, A.
Drought is characterized by a water deficit that may manifest across a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Drought may create important socio-economic consequences, many times of catastrophic dimensions. A quantifiable definition of drought is elusive because depending on its impacts, consequences and generation mechanism, different water deficit periods may be identified as a drought by virtue of some definitions but not by others. Droughts are linked to the water cycle and, although a climate change signal may not have emerged yet, they are also intimately linked to climate.In this work we develop an auto-regressive logistic model for drought prediction at different temporal scales that makes use of a spatially explicit framework. Our model allows to include covariates, continuous or categorical, to improve the performance of the auto-regressive component.Our approach makes use of dimensionality reduction (principal component analysis) and classification techniques (K-Means and maximum dissimilarity) to simplify the representation of complex climatic patterns, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP), while including information on their spatial structure, i.e. considering their spatial patterns. This procedure allows us to include in the analysis multivariate representation of complex climatic phenomena, as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We also explore the impact of other climate-related variables such as sun spots. The model allows to quantify the uncertainty of the forecasts and can be easily adapted to make predictions under future climatic scenarios. The framework herein presented may be extended to other applications such as flash flood analysis, or risk assessment of natural hazards.
Full Text Available This article presents projected future drought occurrences in five river basins in Virginia. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models were used to derive input variables of multiple drought indices, such as the Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI, the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI for both historic and future periods. The results of SSI indicate that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences and that these were caused by increases in evapotranspiration and runoff. However, the results of the MSDI and MPDSI projected a decrease in drought occurrences in future periods due to a greater increase in precipitation in the future. Furthermore, GCM-downscaled products (precipitation and temperature were verified using comparisons with historic observations, and the results of uncertainty analyses suggest that the lower and upper bounds of future drought projections agree with historic conditions.
The author defined drought in three points of view, viz: agricultural, meteorological and hydrological. All categories of drought are important in the understanding of the society's vulnerability to drought and adjustment mechanisms. Agricultural and hydrological droughts have been shown to have far greater socio-economic and political impacts to people living in the dry lands. methods of predicting drought have been highlighted. Early warning systems should be put in places at District level. Mitigation and rehabilitation of people suffering drought and attendant famine should involve both short term and long term strategies. Rain-harvesting techniques, soil and water conservation, crop water requirement and drought risk forecasting should be carried out along with other measures to combat desrtification
inverters connected in a chain. ................................................. 5 Figure 3 Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the lifetime reliability of advanced devices, circuits and...or FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device lifetime was found and thus the reliability that can be conveniently
Nangombe, Shingirai; Madyiwa, Simon; Wang, Jianhong
Despite the increasing severity of droughts and their effects on Zimbabwe's agriculture, there are few tools available for predicting these droughts in advance. Consequently, communities and farmers are more exposed, and policy makers are always ill prepared for such. This study sought to investigate possible cycles and precursor meteorological conditions prior to drought seasons that could be used to predict impending droughts in Zimbabwe. The Single Z-Index was used to identify and grade drought years between 1951 and 2010 according to rainfall severity. Spectral analysis was used to reveal the cycles of droughts for possible use of these cycles for drought prediction. Composite analysis was used to investigate circulation and temperature anomalies associated with severe and extreme drought years. Results indicate that severe droughts are more highly correlated with circulation patterns and embedded weather systems in the Indian Ocean and equatorial Pacific Ocean than any other area. This study identified sea surface temperatures in the average period June to August, geopotential height and wind vector in July to September period, and air temperature in September to November period as precursors that can be used to predict a drought occurrence several months in advance. Therefore, in addition to sea surface temperature, which was identified through previous research for predicting Zimbabwean droughts, the other parameters identified in this study can aid in drought prediction. Drought cycles were established at 20-, 12.5-, 3.2-, and 2.7-year cycles. The spectral peaks, 12.5, 3.2, and 2.7, had a similar timescale with the luni-solar tide, El Niño Southern Oscillation and Quasi Biennial Oscillation, respectively, and hence, occurrence of these phenomena have a possibility of indicating when the next drought might be.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Plant roots are important organs to uptake soil water and nutrients, perceiving and transducing of soil water deficit signals to shoot. The current knowledge of drought stress transcriptomes in rice are mostly relying on comparative studies of diverse genetic background under drought. A more reliable approach is to use near-isogenic lines (NILs with a common genetic background but contrasting levels of resistance to drought stress under initial exposure to water deficit. Here, we examined two pairs of NILs in IR64 background with contrasting drought tolerance. We obtained gene expression profile in roots of rice NILs under different levels of drought stress help to identify genes and mechanisms involved in drought stress. Results Global gene expression analysis showed that about 55% of genes differentially expressed in roots of rice in response to drought stress treatments. The number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs increased in NILs as the level of water deficits, increased from mild to severe condition, suggesting that more genes were affected by increasing drought stress. Gene onthology (GO test and biological pathway analysis indicated that activated genes in the drought tolerant NILs IR77298-14-1-2-B-10 and IR77298-5-6-B-18 were mostly involved in secondary metabolism, amino acid metabolism, response to stimulus, defence response, transcription and signal transduction, and down-regulated genes were involved in photosynthesis and cell wall growth. We also observed gibberellic acid (GA and auxin crosstalk modulating lateral root formation in the tolerant NILs. Conclusions Transcriptome analysis on two pairs of NILs with a common genetic background (~97% showed distinctive differences in gene expression profiles and could be effective to unravel genes involved in drought tolerance. In comparison with the moderately tolerant NIL IR77298-5-6-B-18 and other susceptible NILs, the tolerant NIL IR77298-14-1-2-B-10 showed
Husak, G. J.; Turner, W.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors critical environmental variables that impact food production in developing countries, including over 30 countries in Africa. Much of this work focuses on the identification of agricultural drought using remotely sensed and modeled estimates of conditions. These variables estimate precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, water availability for crops and soil moisture - among others - at a critical time, or accumulated over intervals within the season. Frequently, these variables are used in a "convergence of evidence" approach to identify the location and severity of agricultural drought over a region. While much work has gone into identifying and calculating these key indicators, little attention has been given to the relationships between these variables. This work explores the relationship between four key agricultural drought indicators over West Africa to determine the extent to which they are providing unique information and also to expose where certain variables may not be adding independent information to the identification of agricultural drought and the potential for food insecurity. These variables investigated in this study are the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) and modeled soil moisture (SM) from the FEWSNET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). We look at 35 years of data (1982-2016) over West Africa and identify the primary growing season for the region, then compare the four variables above during this prime season. Because the computational costs of calculating these different indicators varies, we seek to identify where products that are less cost/data intensive adequately capture the same information as the more intensive indicators. The outcome highlights where particular products are most useful for the identification of agricultural drought over the region.
Mohammad Nazeri Tahrudi
year and n is number of period years. After the extraction the 1 to ndays drought duration, the years with no data were complete with Regression or interpolation methods. After the extraction, data initial evaluation (Trend, Independence and Stationarity and completed the drought volume data, these data were fitted by the common distribution functions and select the best function based on Kolmogorov-Sminnov test. To read more information about the data initial evaluations see the NazeriTahroudi et al (15. Log Pearson type 3 distribution Log Pearson type 3 distribution and its parameters is (7 & 12: (2 After selectingthe best distribution function based on Kolmogorov - Smirnov test, estimated the selected function parameter to evaluate the return period. For this purpose, there are many methods such as moments, Sundry Average method (SAM, Logarithm of applied moments observations and maximum likelihood that in this study were compared. Results and Discussion: In this study, using daily flow data fromstations studied; the drought volume of days 1 to 60 was extracted, corrected, and completed. Before fitting the extraction drought volume river data with distribution function, the mentioned data were investigated with Wald-Wolfowitz (Independence and Stationary, Kendall (Trend and Wilcoxon (Homogeneity tests and the results of these tests were accepted in two significant levels of 1 and 5 percentages. Before estimatingthe Log Pearson type III parameters, first the drought volume river data were modeled by the Easy Fit software and common distribution functions and Log Pearson type III was selected by the Kolmogorov – Smirnov test as the best function. Results of two Anderson Darling and Chi Squared tests foraccurate evaluation were added. After initial evaluation of data and statistic tests, the time series of drought Volume River data of the studyarea were fitted by log Pearson type III. To estimatethe Log Pearson type III parameters used the sundry average method and
Preisler, Yakir; Grünzweig, José M.; Rotenberg, Eyal; Rohatyn, Shani; Yakir, Dan
tree degradation. These results indicate, together with earlier results that showed a virtually close hydrological cycle (ET~P) for this forest, that mortality was dominated by conditions at the level of the single-tree or small group of trees. The dependency on belowground water availability of individual trees emphasizes the difficulties in drawing process-based conclusions from the mean response at the forest stand level and, alternatively, the need to investigate drought stress and survival processes at the patch scale. The capabilities of early identification, and of grading the stress level with simple tools, such as tree-rings and pre-dawn water potential, can facilitate partitioning forest stands into zones more relevant to the study and management of drought related mortality. Ultimately, an integrated approach considering both the stand and patch scales and which utilizes methodologies such as used in this study will be essential to reliably predict ecosystem response to changes in precipitation regimes and climate.
Limanowka, Danuta; Cebulak, Elzbieta; Pyrc, Robert; Doktor, Radoslaw
Climate change is one of the key environmental, social and economical issues, and it is also followed by political consequences. Impact of climate conditions on countries' economy is increasingly recognized, and a lot of attention is given, both in the global scale and by the individual national governments. In years 2008-2010, at the Poland -Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute was realized the KLIMAT Project on Impact of climate change on environment, economy and society (changes, effects and methods of reducing them, conclusions for science, engineering practice and economic planning) No. POIG01-03-01-14-011/08. The project was financed by the European Union and Polish state budget in frame of Innovative Economy Operational Programme. A very wide range of research was carried out in the different thematic areas. One of them was "Natural disasters and internal safety of the country (civil and economical)." The problem of drought in Poland was developed in terms of meteorology and hydrology. "Proxy" Data Descriptions very often inform about dry years and seasons, hot periods without precipitation. Analysis of historical material allowed to extract the years that have experienced prolonged periods of high temperatures and rainfall shortages. Weather phenomenon defined as drought belongs to extreme events. This information was very helpful in the process of indexing and thus to restore the course and intensity of climatic elements in the past. The analysis covered the period from year 1000 to modern times. Due to the limited information from the period of 1000-1500 the authors focused primarily on the period from 1500 to 2010. Analysis of the collected material has allowed the development of a highly precise temporal structure of the possible occurrence of dry periods to Polish territory.
Mittal, Shikha; Banduni, Pooja; Mallikarjuna, Mallana G.; Rao, Atmakuri R.; Jain, Prashant A.; Dash, Prasanta K.; Thirunavukkarasu, Nepolean
Drought is one of the major threats to maize production. In order to improve the production and to breed tolerant hybrids, understanding the genes and regulatory mechanisms during drought stress is important. Transcription factors (TFs) play a major role in gene regulation and many TFs have been identified in response to drought stress. In our experiment, a set of 15 major TF families comprising 1436 genes was structurally and functionally characterized using in-silico tools and a gene expression assay. All 1436 genes were mapped on 10 chromosome of maize. The functional annotation indicated the involvement of these genes in ABA signaling, ROS scavenging, photosynthesis, stomatal regulation, and sucrose metabolism. Duplication was identified as the primary force in divergence and expansion of TF families. Phylogenetic relationship was developed individually for each TF family as well as combined TF families. Phylogenetic analysis grouped the TF family of genes into TF-specific and mixed groups. Phylogenetic analysis of genes belonging to various TF families suggested that the origin of TFs occurred in the lineage of maize evolution. Gene structure analysis revealed that more number of genes were intron-rich as compared to intronless genes. Drought-responsive CRE’s such as ABREA, ABREB, DRE1 and DRECRTCOREAT have been identified. Expression and interaction analyses identified leaf-specific bZIP TF, GRMZM2G140355, as a potential contributor toward drought tolerance in maize. We also analyzed protein-protein interaction network of 269 drought-responsive genes belonging to different drought-related TFs. The information generated on structural and functional characteristics, expression and interaction of the drought-related TF families will be useful to decipher the drought tolerance mechanisms and to derive drought-tolerant genotypes in maize.
Veldkamp, Ted; Koks, Elco; Thissen, Mark; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip
Droughts can be defined as spatially extensive events that are characterized by temporal deficits in precipitation, soil moisture or streamflow, and have the potential to cause large direct and indirect economic losses. Many European countries face drought as an economically important hazard, with agriculture, livestock, forestry, energy, industry, and water sectors particularly at risk, causing economic losses of 139 billion US over the past 30 years. Apart from these direct impacts, business production and the flow of goods and services can be affected indirectly by droughts. With consequences that can propagate through the economic system affecting regions not directly hit by the drought event itself, or in time-periods long after the original drought event occurred. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of existing trade linkages between the different NUTS-2 regions in Europe to the coupled occurrence of hydro-meteorological drought events, and their associated production losses. Using a multi-regional supply-use model for Europe, we have, on a product level, insight in the existing trade linkages between NUTS-2 regions. Using this information in combination with historical drought data, we assessed and identified for a selection of water related products: 1) the dependency-structures of the NUTS-2 regions within Europe for the import and export of products (and therein water); 2) the coupled nature of drought events occurring in regions that are linked via these trade-patterns; 3) the probability of not meeting demands (on a product level) due to drought events and the associated (indirect economic) impacts; and 4) regions that lose or benefit from their selection of trade-partners given the coupled nature of drought events, as well as the net effects for Europe as a whole.
Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin
of drought obtained in this study provide valuable information for water resources planning and drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Eastern China.
Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoît; François, Baptiste; Creutin, Jean-Dominique
generic power systems (generic wind, solar and hydro power plant) and observations or pseudo-observations of meteorological drivers. The daily river discharge series required for hydro power are generated using a hydrological model. Our results demonstrate the diversity of characteristics of energy droughts not only from one energy source to the other, but also depending on the region and on the season considered. Wind power generally presents short but frequent energy droughts whereas hydro-power-related droughts are rare but generally long lasting. Solar power is mainly driven by the length of daytime resulting in long winter "solar drought" in Northern regions. We finally assess the energy droughts characteristics of an energy mix for which the three VRE sources are combined. The proportions of wind, solar and hydro power considered in the regional mixes are based on the work of François et al. (2016b). Mixing VRE sources efficiently reduces both duration and frequency of energy droughts leading to a more reliable power supply. References : François, B., Hingray, B., Raynaud, D., Borga, M., Creutin, J.D., 2016b. Increasing climate-related-energy penetration by integrating run-of-the river hydropower to wind/solar mix. Renew. Energy 87, 686-696. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.064
Wada, Yoshihide; Van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc F P
Over the past 50 years, human water use has more than doubled and affected streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought (the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow). Here, we quantify over the period 1960–2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought worldwide. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow over Europe, North America and Asia, and subsequently intensified the magnitude of hydrological droughts by 10–500%, occurring during nation- and continent-wide drought events. Also, human water consumption alone increased global drought frequency by 27 (±6)%. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia (35 ± 7%), but also substantial over North America (25 ± 6%) and Europe (20 ± 5%). Importantly, the severe drought conditions are driven primarily by human water consumption over many parts of these regions. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over the western and central US, southern Europe and Asia, whereas the impact of industrial and households’ consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over the eastern US and western and central Europe. Our findings reveal that human water consumption is one of the more important mechanisms intensifying hydrological drought, and is likely to remain as a major factor affecting drought intensity and frequency in the coming decades. (letter)
Budak, Hikmet; Kantar, Melda; Yucebilgili Kurtoglu, Kuaybe
The genus Triticum includes bread (Triticum aestivum) and durum wheat (Triticum durum) and constitutes a major source for human food consumption. Drought is currently the leading threat on world's food supply, limiting crop yield, and is complicated since drought tolerance is a quantitative trait with a complex phenotype affected by the plant's developmental stage. Drought tolerance is crucial to stabilize and increase food production since domestication has limited the genetic diversity of crops including wild wheat, leading to cultivated species, adapted to artificial environments, and lost tolerance to drought stress. Improvement for drought tolerance can be achieved by the introduction of drought-grelated genes and QTLs to modern wheat cultivars. Therefore, identification of candidate molecules or loci involved in drought tolerance is necessary, which is undertaken by “omics” studies and QTL mapping. In this sense, wild counterparts of modern varieties, specifically wild emmer wheat (T. dicoccoides), which are highly tolerant to drought, hold a great potential. Prior to their introgression to modern wheat cultivars, drought related candidate genes are first characterized at the molecular level, and their function is confirmed via transgenic studies. After integration of the tolerance loci, specific environment targeted field trials are performed coupled with extensive analysis of morphological and physiological characteristics of developed cultivars, to assess their performance under drought conditions and their possible contributions to yield in certain regions. This paper focuses on recent advances on drought related gene/QTL identification, studies on drought related molecular pathways, and current efforts on improvement of wheat cultivars for drought tolerance. PMID:23766697
Full Text Available The genus Triticum includes bread (Triticum aestivum and durum wheat (Triticum durum and constitutes a major source for human food consumption. Drought is currently the leading threat on world's food supply, limiting crop yield, and is complicated since drought tolerance is a quantitative trait with a complex phenotype affected by the plant's developmental stage. Drought tolerance is crucial to stabilize and increase food production since domestication has limited the genetic diversity of crops including wild wheat, leading to cultivated species, adapted to artificial environments, and lost tolerance to drought stress. Improvement for drought tolerance can be achieved by the introduction of drought-grelated genes and QTLs to modern wheat cultivars. Therefore, identification of candidate molecules or loci involved in drought tolerance is necessary, which is undertaken by “omics” studies and QTL mapping. In this sense, wild counterparts of modern varieties, specifically wild emmer wheat (T. dicoccoides, which are highly tolerant to drought, hold a great potential. Prior to their introgression to modern wheat cultivars, drought related candidate genes are first characterized at the molecular level, and their function is confirmed via transgenic studies. After integration of the tolerance loci, specific environment targeted field trials are performed coupled with extensive analysis of morphological and physiological characteristics of developed cultivars, to assess their performance under drought conditions and their possible contributions to yield in certain regions. This paper focuses on recent advances on drought related gene/QTL identification, studies on drought related molecular pathways, and current efforts on improvement of wheat cultivars for drought tolerance.
Rico, H.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, E.; Friberg, P.; Frechette, K.; Given, D.
The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) has collaborated to develop a next-generation earthquake notification system that is nearing its first operations-ready release. The CISN Display actively alerts users of seismic data, and vital earthquake hazards information following a significant event. It will primarily replace the Caltech/USGS Broadcast of Earthquakes (CUBE) and Rapid Earthquake Data Integration (REDI) Display as the principal means of delivering geographical seismic data to emergency operations centers, utility companies and media outlets. A subsequent goal is to provide automated access to the many Web products produced by regional seismic networks after an earthquake. Another aim is to create a highly configurable client, allowing user organizations to overlay infrastructure data critical to their roles as first-responders, or lifeline operators. And the final goal is to integrate these requirements, into a package offering several layers of reliability to ensure delivery of services. Central to the CISN Display's role as a gateway to Web-based earthquake products is its comprehensive XML-messaging schema. The message model uses many of the same attributes in the CUBE format, but extends the old standard by provisioning additional elements for products currently available, and others yet to be considered. The client consumes these XML-messages, sorts them through a resident Quake Data Merge filter, and posts updates that also include hyperlinks associated to specific event IDs on the display map. Earthquake products available for delivery to the CISN Display are ShakeMap, focal mechanisms, waveform data, felt reports, aftershock forecasts and earthquake commentaries. By design the XML-message schema can evolve as products and information needs change, without breaking existing applications that rely on it. The latest version of the CISN Display can also automatically download ShakeMaps and display shaking intensity within the GIS system. This
Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research
This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research
Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research
Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)
This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.
Mazzuchi, Thomas; Singpurwalla, Nozer
In this volume consideration was given to more advanced theoretical approaches and novel applications of reliability to ensure that topics having a futuristic impact were specifically included. Topics like finance, forensics, information, and orthopedics, as well as the more traditional reliability topics were purposefully undertaken to make this collection different from the existing books in reliability. The entries have been categorized into seven parts, each emphasizing a theme that seems poised for the future development of reliability as an academic discipline with relevance. The seven parts are networks and systems; recurrent events; information and design; failure rate function and burn-in; software reliability and random environments; reliability in composites and orthopedics, and reliability in finance and forensics. Embedded within the above are some of the other currently active topics such as causality, cascading, exchangeability, expert testimony, hierarchical modeling, optimization and survival...
Tessema, Biructa Bekele
Drought is a major threat to agricultural production, which makes drought tolerance a prime target for breeding approaches towards crop improvement. Drought is a complex polygenic trait and poses a challenge for drought tolerance breeding. Improving crops for drought tolerance at least requires
Lanen, van Henny A.J.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis; Stahl, Kerstin; Wolters, Wouter; Andreu, Joaquin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stefano, De Lucia; Seidl, Irmi; Rego, Francisco Castro; Massarutto, Antonio; Garnier, Emmanuel
The DROUGHT-R&SPI project adopted a transdisciplinary approach that combined drought analyses for six selected Case Studies across Europe with drought analyses at the pan-European scale both for past and future climates. Achievements on drought as natural hazard, drought impacts, responses
Loon, Van A.F.; Laaha, G.
Impacts of a drought are generally dependent on the severity of the hydrological drought event, which can be expressed by streamflow drought duration or deficit volume. For prediction and the selection of drought sensitive regions, it is crucial to know how streamflow drought severity relates to
Turco, Marco; Ceglar, Andrej; Prodhomme, Chloé; Soret, Albert; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes Francisco, J.
Seasonal climate forecasts could be an important planning tool for farmers, government and insurance companies that can lead to better and timely management of seasonal climate risks. However, climate seasonal forecasts are often under-used, because potential users are not well aware of the capabilities and limitations of these products. This study aims at assessing the merits and caveats of a statistical empirical method, the ensemble streamflow prediction system (ESP, an ensemble based on reordering historical data) and an operational dynamical forecast system, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—System 4 (S4) in predicting summer drought in Europe. Droughts are defined using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for the month of August integrated over 6 months. Both systems show useful and mostly comparable deterministic skill. We argue that this source of predictability is mostly attributable to the observed initial conditions. S4 shows only higher skill in terms of ability to probabilistically identify drought occurrence. Thus, currently, both approaches provide useful information and ESP represents a computationally fast alternative to dynamical prediction applications for drought prediction.
Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.
Drought in semi-arid areas can have substantial impact on ephemeral and small water bodies, which provide critical ecological habitat and have important socio-economic value. This is particularly true in the pastoral areas of East Africa, where these ecosystems provide local communities with water for human and animal consumption and pasture for livestock. However, monitoring the impact of drought on ephemeral and small water bodies in East Africa is challenging because of sparse in situ observational systems. Satellite remote sensing observations have been shown to be a viable option for monitoring surface water change in data-poor regions. Landsat data is widely used to detect open water, but the use of Landsat data in small waterbody studies is limited by its 30-meter spatial resolution. New remote sensing-based tools are necessary to better understand the vulnerability of ephemeral and small waterbodies in semi-arid areas to drought and to monitor drought impacts. This study combines Landsat and Sentinel 1 SAR observations to create a series of monthly waterbody maps over the Awash River basin in Ethiopia depicting the change in surface water from October 2014 to March 2017. The study time period corresponds with a major drought event in the area. Waterbody maps were generated using a 10-meter resolution and utilized to monitor drought impacts on ephemeral and small waterbodies in the Awash River basin over the course of the drought event. Initial results show that surface waterbodies in the lower catchments of the Awash basin were more severely impacted by the drought event than the upper catchments. It is anticipated that the new information provided by this tool will inform decisions affecting the water, energy, agriculture and other sectors in East Africa reliant on water resources, enabling water authorities to better manage future drought events.
Chub, V.E.; Agaltseva, N.A.; Myagkov, S.V.
In Article 10 point 2 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and Drought it is pointed out that the National Action Plans 'envisage the strengthening of the national basis of the climatic, meteorological and hydrological studies and the extending the possibilities for the creation of the system of the early drought forecasting'. The Pilot Project << Early warning system of Drought,, was executed in Uzbekistan at support of Germany project on Convention to combat Desertification (GTZ-CCD). The objective of the project is the creation of the regional automated information system for the early drought warning (AISEWS). In the framework of the project it is proposed to fulfil the main following tasks: - development of concepts of preparing the databases on drought factors and keeping on the databank of drought conditions on territory of Republic Uzbekistan; - the creation of the regional informational basis of the hydro meteorological and agrometeorological information and the system of its keeping on the basis of GIS technique; - analysis of hydro meteorological situations causing the drought in the Aral sea basin; - experimental agrometeorological (in the course of the field studies) and numerical estimation of the parameters of the model of the runoff formation and soil drought; - adaptation of the models complex set of the runoff formation for hydrological objects; - development of out the technique for the long-term drought forecasting basing on the mathematical models of the runoff formation in the river basin; -development of the computer information system for the early drought forecasting with the elements of the operational information transfer to the users. For the Central Asian region the drought means, first of all, the deficit of the water resources that is why the forecasting of the water availability in rivers in the years with the water deficit is of the utmost importance. The following tasks should be fulfilled for the achieving the designed
Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at
From all natural disaster, drought is the least understandable and the most damaging environmental phenomenon. Although in pre-satellite era, climate data were used for drought monitoring, drought specifics created problems in early drought detection start/end, monitoring its expansion/contraction, intensity and area coverage and the most important, timely estimation of the impacts on the environment and socioeconomic activities. The latest prevented to take prompt measures in mitigating negative consequences of drought for the society. Advances in remote sensing of the past ten years, contributed to the development of comprehensive drought monitoring system and numerous applications, which helped to make decisions for monitoring the environment and predicting sustainable socioeconomic activities. This paper discusses satellite-based land-surface observing system, which provides wells of information used for monitoring such unusual natural disaster as drought. This system was developed from the observations of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) flown on NOAA operational polar-orbiting satellites. The AVHRR data were packed into the Global Vegetation Index (GVI) product, which have served the global community since 1981. The GVI provided reflectances and indices (4 km spacial resolution) every seven days for each 16 km map cell between 75EN and 55ES covering all land ecosystems. The data includes raw and calibrated radiances in the visible, near infrared and infrared spectral bands, processed (with eliminated high frequency noise) radiances, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), 20-year climatology, vegetation condition indices and also products, such as vegetation health, drought, vegetation fraction, fire risk etc. In the past ten years, users around the world used this information addressing different issues of drought impacts on socioeconomic activities and responded positively to real time drought information place regularly on the
USDA Forest Service
Drought and winter drying have periodically caused major damage to trees. Drought reduces the amount of water available in the soil. In the case of winter drying, the water may be in the soil, but freezing of the soil makes the water unavailable to the tree. In both cases, more water is lost through transpiration than is available to the plant. Symptoms of drought and...
Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.
Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key
Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stagge, James H.; Stahl, Kerstin; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Loon, van Anne F.; Lanen, van Henny A.J.
A prerequisite to mitigate the wide range of drought impacts is to establish a good understanding of the drought generating mechanisms from their initiation as a meteorological drought through to their development as soil moisture and hydrological drought. The DROUGHT-R&SPI project has
Zhang, Fantao; Zhou, Yi; Zhang, Meng; Luo, Xiangdong; Xie, Jiankun
Drought is a serious constraint to rice production throughout the world, and although Dongxiang wild rice ( Oryza rufipogon , DXWR) possesses a high degree of drought resistance, the underlying mechanisms of this trait remains unclear. In the present study, cDNA libraries were constructed from the leaf and root tissues of drought-stressed and untreated DXWR seedlings, and transcriptome sequencing was performed with the goal of elucidating the molecular mechanisms involved in drought-stress response. The results indicated that 11231 transcripts were differentially expressed in the leaves (4040 up-regulated and 7191 down-regulated) and 7025 transcripts were differentially expressed in the roots (3097 up-regulated and 3928 down-regulated). Among these differentially expressed genes (DEGs), the detection of many transcriptional factors and functional genes demonstrated that multiple regulatory pathways were involved in drought resistance. Meanwhile, the DEGs were also annotated with gene ontology (GO) terms and key pathways via functional classification and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Gene and Genomes (KEGG) pathway mapping, respectively. A set of the most interesting candidate genes was then identified by combining the DEGs with previously identified drought-resistant quantitative trait loci (QTL). The present work provides abundant genomic information for functional dissection of the drought resistance of DXWR, and findings will further help the current understanding of the biological regulatory mechanisms of drought resistance in plants and facilitate the breeding of new drought-resistant rice cultivars. © 2017 The Author(s).
Full Text Available Drought occurs due to lack of water in the soil, as well as due to disturbances in the circulation of the atmosphere. The duration of the drought may be different, and droughts not only the lack of rainfall, but also erratic distribution of rainfall throughout the year. The intensity of droughts amplified high temperatures, low relative humidity and dry, hot winds. The drought in many areas of common occurrence that repeats without a discernible regularity. Although it can be found in almost all parts of the world, its characteristics vary from region to region. Defining drought is therefore difficult and depends on regional differences and needs, but also from the perspective from which to observe this phenomenon. In the broadest sense, the drought is due to the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, leading to water shortages for some activities, group activities or an entire sector of the environment. Drought can not be viewed solely as a physical phenomenon. The occurrence of drought, because of the weather, a lot of influences and reflects on the plants and agricultural production.
Lopes, Marta S; Araus, Jose Luis; van Heerden, Philippus D R; Foyer, Christine H
Adaptation to abiotic stresses is a quantitative trait controlled by many different genes. Enhancing the tolerance of crop plants to abiotic stresses such as drought has therefore proved to be somewhat elusive in terms of plant breeding. While many C(4) species have significant agronomic importance, most of the research effort on improving drought tolerance has focused on maize. Ideally, drought tolerance has to be achieved without penalties in yield potential. Possibilities for success in this regard are highlighted by studies on maize hybrids performed over the last 70 years that have demonstrated that yield potential and enhanced stress tolerance are associated traits. However, while our understanding of the molecular mechanisms that enable plants to tolerate drought has increased considerably in recent years, there have been relatively few applications of DNA marker technologies in practical C(4) breeding programmes for improved stress tolerance. Moreover, until recently, targeted approaches to drought tolerance have concentrated largely on shoot parameters, particularly those associated with photosynthesis and stay green phenotypes, rather than on root traits such as soil moisture capture for transpiration, root architecture, and improvement of effective use of water. These root traits are now increasingly considered as important targets for yield improvement in C(4) plants under drought stress. Similarly, the molecular mechanisms underpinning heterosis have considerable potential for exploitation in enhancing drought stress tolerance. While current evidence points to the crucial importance of root traits in drought tolerance in C(4) plants, shoot traits may also be important in maintaining high yields during drought.
Reid B. Stevens
Full Text Available The hydraulic fracturing boom in Texas required massive water flows. Beginning in the summer of 2011, water became scarce as a prolonged heat wave and subsequent severe drought spread across the state. Oil and gas producers working in drought areas needed to purchase expensive local water or transport water from a non-drought county far from the drill site. In response to decreased water availability in drought areas, these producers completed fewer wells and completed wells that used less water. This decrease in well-level water use had a measurable effect on the amount of oil and gas produced by wells completed during exceptional conditions.
Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.
The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.
Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.
Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest
McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.
Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.
Guerreiro, Joana Ferreira
During the last decade Mongolia’s region was characterized by a rapid increase of both severity and frequency of drought events, leading to pasture reduction. Drought monitoring and assessment plays an important role in the region’s early warning systems as a way to mitigate the negative impacts in social, economic and environmental sectors. Nowadays it is possible to access information related to the hydrologic cycle through remote sensing, which provides a continuous monitoring of variables...
Ehsan EYSHI REZAEI
Full Text Available Drought is one of the natural disasters which deeply influenced agricultural production. Drought monitoring programs could help to forecast and mitigate the impacts of drought. In this study occurrence, severity, and duration of drought were evaluated by monthly rainfall data (1986-2005 that were recorded at all meteorological stations in north Khorasan province of Iran. Drought indices include Standard Rainfall Index (SPI, Decades Index (DI and Percent of Normal (PNI calculated and compared to determine drought severity, duration and drought occurrence for all stations. In addition, drought maps were prepared by Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method, for each study zone. Based on these indices, the most extensive drought occurred in 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000, and 2001 years. The longest duration of drought based on SPI happened in 1994 and 1997 years. Furthermore, the extreme drought occurred in 1990 and 2001 in all stations. In conclusion, Central part of this province was more exposed to extreme drought during study period than other parts of this region.
Anderegg, William R L; Anderegg, Leander D L
Global patterns of drought-induced forest die-off indicate that many forests may be sensitive to climate-driven mortality, but the lack of understanding of how trees and saplings die during drought hinders the projections of die-off, demographic bottlenecks and ecosystem trajectories. In this study, we performed a severe controlled drought experiment on saplings of Pinus edulis Engelm. and Juniperus osteosperma (Torr.) Little, two species that both experienced die-off in a recent 'climate change-type' drought. We examined the roles of carbohydrate and hydraulic changes in multiple tissues as the saplings died. We found that saplings of both species exhibited large degrees of loss of hydraulic conductivity prior to death. Neither species exhibited significant changes in carbohydrate concentrations in any tissue during the relatively short and severe imposed drought. Native hydraulic conductivity successfully predicted the degree of canopy mortality in both species, highlighting the importance of drought characteristics and tree attributes in influencing physiological pathways to mortality. The relationships elucidated here, as well as the differences between our results and previous findings in adult trees, can help inform mortality mechanisms in climate-vegetation models, especially for young trees, and to understand species response to severe drought across ontogeny.
Aadhar, S.; Mishra, V.
Drought in South Asia affect food and water security and pose challenges for millions of people. For policy-making, planning and management of water resources at the sub-basin or administrative levels, high-resolution datasets of precipitation and air temperature are required in near-real time. Here we develop a high resolution (0.05 degree) bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data that can be used to monitor near real-time drought conditions over South Asia. Moreover, the dataset can be used to monitor climatic extremes (heat waves, cold waves, dry and wet anomalies) in South Asia. A distribution mapping method was applied to correct bias in precipitation and air temperature (maximum and minimum), which performed well compared to the other bias correction method based on linear scaling. Bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data were used to estimate Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to assess the historical and current drought conditions in South Asia. We evaluated drought severity and extent against the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies and satellite-driven Drought Severity Index (DSI) at 0.05˚. We find that the bias-corrected high-resolution data can effectively capture observed drought conditions as shown by the satellite-based drought estimates. High resolution near real-time dataset can provide valuable information for decision-making at district and sub- basin levels.
Gabriel Constantino Blain
Full Text Available Drought is a slow-moving hazard that occurs in virtually all countries of the world. In the light of this, several indices have been developed to improve the detection of drought's onset, as well as quantifying other features of this phenomenon. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI is often used in order to characterize meteorological droughts. In addition, this index is largely used by Brazilian's agricultural institutions. In order to add important information to the drought literature, this review article described a general definition of drought, evaluated it from a statistical point of view, and also described the SPI strengths and limitations. An adaptation of the SPI that aims to develop a probability-based agricultural drought index was also presented. The results obtained herein, associated with several studies carried out throughout the world, demonstrated that the SPI is not an agricultural index. It is just a mathematical approach developed to transforming skewed distributions into the Gaussian form. If this standardization cannot be achieved, the use of this index becomes meaningless. Therefore, a normality test should be used in establishing a temporal lower limit for the SPI computations. It was also verified that for periods in which the probability associated with the zero precipitation value is close to 0.5, the SPI may erroneously indicate the end of an existing drought (or a decrease in its severity in the presence of a decrease in the actual evapotranspiration values.
Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.
Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.
Tian, Y.; Xu, Y. P.
In this paper, the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model incorporating climate indices and drought indices are developed to predict agriculture drought in Xiangjiang River basin, Central China. The agriculture droughts are presented with the Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). According to the analysis of the relationship between SPEI with different time scales and soil moisture, it is found that SPEI of six months time scales (SPEI-6) could reflect the soil moisture better than that of three and one month time scale from the drought features including drought duration, severity and peak. Climate forcing like El Niño Southern Oscillation and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) are represented by climate indices such as MEI and series indices of WPSH. Ridge Point of WPSH is found to be the key factor that influences the agriculture drought mainly through the control of temperature. Based on the climate indices analysis, the predictions of SPEI-6 are conducted using the SVR model. The results show that the SVR model incorperating climate indices, especially ridge point of WPSH, could improve the prediction accuracy compared to that using drought index only. The improvement was more significant for the prediction of one month lead time than that of three months lead time. However, it needs to be cautious in selection of the input parameters, since adding more useless information could have a counter effect in attaining a better prediction.
Seçkin, Gül; Yeatts, Dale; Hughes, Susan; Hudson, Cassie; Bell, Valarie
The Internet, with its capacity to provide information that transcends time and space barriers, continues to transform how people find and apply information to their own lives. With the current explosion in electronic sources of health information, including thousands of websites and hundreds of mobile phone health apps, electronic health literacy is gaining an increasing prominence in health and medical research. An important dimension of electronic health literacy is the ability to appraise the quality of information that will facilitate everyday health care decisions. Health information seekers explore their care options by gathering information from health websites, blogs, Web-based forums, social networking websites, and advertisements, despite the fact that information quality on the Internet varies greatly. Nonetheless, research has lagged behind in establishing multidimensional instruments, in part due to the evolving construct of health literacy itself. The purpose of this study was to examine psychometric properties of a new electronic health literacy (ehealth literacy) measure in a national sample of Internet users with specific attention to older users. Our paper is motivated by the fact that ehealth literacy is an underinvestigated area of inquiry. Our sample was drawn from a panel of more than 55,000 participants maintained by Knowledge Networks, the largest national probability-based research panel for Web-based surveys. We examined the factor structure of a 19-item electronic Health Literacy Scale (e-HLS) through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency reliability, and construct validity on sample of adults (n=710) and a subsample of older adults (n=194). The AMOS graphics program 21.0 was used to construct a measurement model, linking latent factors obtained from EFA with 19 indicators to determine whether this factor structure achieved a good fit with our entire sample and the subsample (age ≥ 60
Oel, van P.R.; Martins, E.S.P.R.; Costa, A.C.
Human interventions in response to drought can both alleviate and enhance drought. Developments of infrastructure for freshwater storage, groundwater abstraction and irrigation have proved to be effective in overcoming meteorological and agricultural drought in many locations worldwide. At the same
Thirumalaikumar, Venkatesh P.; Devkar, Vikas; Mehterov, Nikolay; Ali, Shawkat; Ozgur, Rengin; Turkan, Ismail; Mueller-Roeber, Bernd; Balazadeh, Salma
Water deficit (drought stress) massively restricts plant growth and the yield of crops; reducing the deleterious effects of drought is therefore of high agricultural relevance. Drought triggers diverse cellular processes including the inhibition
Aug 16, 2010 ... and the ability of plant to adapt to drought stress. (Bulbotko, 1973; Atkinson et ... drought stress. In general, little is known about the effects of soil drought ..... fluorescence, water relations, and leaf abscisic acid. Plant Physiol.
Loon, van A.F.; Tijdeman, E.; Wanders, N.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Teuling, A.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.
Drought propagation through the terrestrial hydrological cycle is associated with a change in drought characteristics (duration and deficit), moving from precipitation via soil moisture to discharge. Here we investigate climate controls on drought propagation with a modeling experiment in 1271
Changnon, Stanley A.
The drought of 1988 rated as one of the nation's worst in the past 100 years, resulting in a myriad of impacts and responses. A notable, largely unexpected impact involved stoppages of barge traffic on the lower Mississippi River during June and July, a result of shallow areas produced by record low flows and shoaling. The barge industry hauls 45% of all bulk commodities (grains, coal, petroleum) shipped in the central United States. The low flows were a result of the unusually large areas extent of drought conditions across most of the Mississippi Basin, which comprises 40% of the continental United States. Most 1987 months had been relatively warm and dry, minimizing moisture in the soils and shallow ground water. Then deficient snowmelt (due to low winter snow-falls) and record low spring 1988 precipitation combined to produce the record low flows along much of the Mississippi River.Most responses to the drought came in a crisis mode and included concentrated dredging to open channels, government enforced reductions in barge loads and in numbers of barges per tow, tripled barge shipping rates, and shifts in transportation modes. The barge industry suffered a 20% income loss. The total losses to the barge industry coupled with higher costs for shipping were $1 billion. The Illinois Central Railroad, which parallels the major blocked waterways, used a climate prediction to anticipate the low flows 3 months in advance. They leased additional cars to help handle the increased shipments transferred from barges and made a sizable profit. A response proposed by Illinois and shippers-a temporary increase in the water diverted from lake Michigan to raise the levels on the lower Mississippi River-was met with strong objections by other lake states and Canada. The federal government declined the proposal, but the sizable controversy it engendered reflects the growing sensitivity to water resources issues in the Great Lakes Basin and is also illustrative of problems to be
Sheffield, Justin; Chaney, Nate; Yuan, Xing; Wood, Eric
Drought has important but very different consequences regionally due to differences in vulnerability. These differences derive from variations in exposure related to climate variability and change, sensitivity of local populations, and coping capacity at all levels. Managing the risk of drought impacts relies on a variety of measures to reduce vulnerability that includes forewarning of drought development through early-warning systems. Existing systems rely on a variety of observing systems from satellites to local observers, modeling tools, and data dissemination methods. They range from sophisticated state-of-the-art systems to simple ground reports. In some regions, systems are virtually non-existent due to limited national capacity. This talk describes our experiences in developing and implementing drought monitoring and seasonal forecast systems in the US and sub-Saharan Africa as contrasting examples of the scientific challenges and user needs in developing early warning systems. In particular, early warning can help improve livelihoods based on subsistence farming in sub-Saharan Africa; whist reduction of economic impacts is generally foremost in the US. For the US, our national drought monitoring and seasonal forecast system has been operational for over 8 years and provides near real-time updates on hydrological states at ~12km resolution and hydrological forecasts out to 9 months. Output from the system contributes to national assessments such as from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the US National Drought Monitor (USDM). For sub-Saharan Africa, our experimental drought monitoring system was developed as a translation of the US system but presents generally greater challenges due to, for example, lack of ground data and unique user needs. The system provides near real-time updates based on hydrological modeling and satellite based precipitation estimates, and has recently been augmented by a seasonal forecast component. We discuss the
Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Senay, Gabriel B.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.
Level 3 soil moisture datasets from the recently launched Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite are evaluated for drought monitoring in rangelands.Validation of SMAP soil moisture (SSM) with in situ and modeled estimates showed high level of agreement.SSM showed the highest correlation with surface soil moisture (0-5 cm) and a strong correlation to depths up to 20 cm.SSM showed a reliable and expected response of capturing seasonal dynamics in relation to precipitation, land surface temperature, and evapotranspiration.Further evaluation using multi-year SMAP datasets is necessary to quantify the full benefits and limitations for drought monitoring in rangelands.
... Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System, Order No. 693, FERC Stats. & Regs. ] 31,242, order on reh'g...-Power System reliability may request an interpretation of a Reliability Standard.\\7\\ The ERO's standards... information in its reliability assessments. The Reliability Coordinator must monitor Bulk Electric System...
This short paper presents the reasons of the creation of parliamentary inquiry commission of 30 members, on the reliability of the nuclear power plants in France in case of earthquakes and on the safety, information and warning procedures in case of accidents. (A.L.B.)
Weng, B. S.; Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Liu, J. H.; Yang, Z. Y.; Qin, T. L.; Yin, J.
Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960-2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.
Rico, H.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, E.; Friberg, P.; Given, D.
earthquake information on the Web. The links are automatically created when product generators deliver CUBE formatted packets to a Quake Data Distribution System (QDDS) hub (new distribution methods may be used later). The "feeder" modules tap into the QDDS hub and convert the packets into XML-messages. These messages are forwarded to message queues, and then distributed to clients where URLs are dynamically created for these products and linked to events on the CISN Display map. The products may be downloaded out-of-band; and with the inclusion of a GIS mapping tool users can plot organizational assets on the CISN Display map and overlay them against key spectral data, such as ground accelerations. This gives Emergency Response Managers information useful in allocating limited personnel and resources after a major event. At the heart of the system's robustness is a well-established and reliable set of communication protocols for best-effort delivery of data. For critical users a Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) state-full connection is used via a dedicated signaling channel. The system employs several CORBA methods that alert users of changes in the link status. Loss of connectivity triggers a strategy that attempts to reconnect through various physical and logical paths. Thus, by building on past application successes and proven Internet advances the CISN Display targets a specific audience by providing enhancements previously not available from other applications.
Full Text Available The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia. Less rural populations (−217.7 ± 79.2 million and −216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk
Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.
The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative
Helman, David; Lensky, Itamar M; Yakir, Dan; Osem, Yagil
More frequent and intense droughts are projected during the next century, potentially changing the hydrological balances in many forested catchments. Although the impacts of droughts on forest functionality have been vastly studied, little attention has been given to studying the effect of droughts on forest hydrology. Here, we use the Budyko framework and two recently introduced Budyko metrics (deviation and elasticity) to study the changes in the water yields (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) of forested catchments following a climatic drought (2006-2010) in pine forests distributed along a rainfall gradient (P = 280-820 mm yr -1 ) in the Eastern Mediterranean (aridity factor = 0.17-0.56). We use a satellite-based model and meteorological information to calculate the Budyko metrics. The relative water yield ranged from 48% to 8% (from the rainfall) in humid to dry forests and was mainly associated with rainfall amount (increasing with increased rainfall amount) and bedrock type (higher on hard bedrocks). Forest elasticity was larger in forests growing under drier conditions, implying that drier forests have more predictable responses to drought, according to the Budyko framework, compared to forests growing under more humid conditions. In this context, younger forests were shown more elastic than older forests. Dynamic deviation, which is defined as the water yield departure from the Budyko curve, was positive in all forests (i.e., less-than-expected water yields according to Budyko's curve), increasing with drought severity, suggesting lower hydrological resistance to drought in forests suffering from larger rainfall reductions. However, the dynamic deviation significantly decreased in forests that experienced relatively cooler conditions during the drought period. Our results suggest that forests growing under permanent dry conditions might develop a range of hydrological and eco-physiological adjustments to drought leading to higher hydrological
Zhang, Qiang; Li, Qin; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Huang, Qingzhong; Sun, Peng
Drought is a major natural hazard that has massive impacts on the society. How to monitor drought is critical for its mitigation and early warning. This study proposed a modified version of the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) based on precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, i.e., modified multivariate standardized drought index (MMSDI). This study also used nonparametric joint probability distribution analysis. Comparisons were done between standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized soil moisture index (SSMI), MSDI, and MMSDI, and real-world observed drought regimes. Results indicated that MMSDI detected droughts that SPEI and/or SSMI failed to do. Also, MMSDI detected almost all droughts that were identified by SPEI and SSMI. Further, droughts detected by MMSDI were similar to real-world observed droughts in terms of drought intensity and drought-affected area. When compared to MMSDI, MSDI has the potential to overestimate drought intensity and drought-affected area across China, which should be attributed to exclusion of the evapotranspiration components from estimation of drought intensity. Therefore, MMSDI is proposed for drought monitoring that can detect agrometeorological droughts. Results of this study provide a framework for integrated drought monitoring in other regions of the world and can help to develop drought mitigation.
Tadesse, T.; Haile, M.; Senay, G.; Wardlow, B.D.; Knutson, C.L.
Reducing the impact of drought and famine remains a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa despite ongoing drought relief assistance in recent decades. This is because drought and famine are primarily addressed through a crisis management approach when a disaster occurs, rather than stressing preparedness and risk management. Moreover, drought planning and food security efforts have been hampered by a lack of integrated drought monitoring tools, inadequate early warning systems (EWS), and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government in many sub-Saharan countries. The integration of existing drought monitoring tools for sub-Saharan Africa is essential for improving food security systems to reduce the impacts of drought and famine on society in this region. A proactive approach emphasizing integration requires the collective use of multiple tools, which can be used to detect trends in food availability and provide early indicators at local, national, and regional scales on the likely occurrence of food crises. In addition, improving the ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought-related information using available modern technologies (e.g., satellites, computers, and modern communication techniques) may help trigger timely and appropriate preventive responses and, ultimately, contribute to food security and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. ?? 2008 United Nations.
Hernández-Mora, N.; Garrido, A.; Gil, M.
Water scarcity and drought are particularly relevant phenomena in Spain, a country with a Mediterranean climate and intense pressure on existing water resources. Spain's drought management policies have evolved significantly over time, and today Spain is at the forefront of drought management and mitigation planning in Europe. However, drought management policies are not informed by comprehensive or accurate estimations of the socioeconomic impacts of drought, nor by the efficiency or efficacy of drought management and mitigation measures. Previous studies attempting to estimate on the impacts of drought are based on direct economic users of water, primarily irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Existing analyses do not take into consideration the impacts on other economic sectors, such as recreational uses, which have a growing importance from a socioeconomic perspective. Additionally, the intangible or non-market impacts (on social welfare and wellbeing and on the environment) are not considered or measured, although they can be significant. This paper presents the mid-point results of the PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), an effort to provide a comprehensive assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin. The study gathers existing information on direct and indirect economic impacts of drought on different sectors, completing existing gaps and comparing the results of studies that use different methodologies. It also estimates the welfare losses resulting from domestic water use restrictions and environmental degradation as a result of the drought using a value transfer approach from results derived from value choice experiments developed for other Spanish and international river basins. Results indicate that there is a clear need to improve our knowledge of the direct and indirect impacts of drought and to
Abiotic stresses are the primary cause of crop failure worldwide, reducing average yields by more than 50%. Among the various forms of abiotic stress, drought is the most limiting factor for rice productivity. Drought affects about
Hurtado Moreno, Gonzalo
The drought is evaluated by means of a standardized index of precipitation, at the same time simple and direct. It has not been guided toward a specific type of drought, but rather it has been evaluated as a phenomenon caused exclusively by the rain deficiency
In search for higher yielding drought tolerant wheat varieties, one of the Kenyan high yielding variety 'Pasa' was irradiated with gamma rays (at 150, 200, and 250gy) in 1997 so as to induce variability and select for drought tolerance. Six mutants ((KM10, KM14, KM15, KM18, KM20 and KM21) were selected at M4 for their ...
The main objective of this study was to identify and isolate the genes conferring drought tolerance in cowpea. A cDNA library enriched for cowpea genes expressed specifically during responses to drought was constructed. A procedure called suppression subtractive hybridisation (SSH) was successfully employed to obtain ...
Drought stress is a major abiotic stress that limits crop production. Molecular association mapping techniques through linkage disequilibrium (LD) can be effectively used to tag genomic regions involved in drought stress tolerance. With the association mapping approach, 90 genotypes of cotton Gossypium hirsutum, from ...
Banana (Musa spp.) yields are estimated at 5-30 t ha-1yr-1, lower than the potential 60 t ha-1yr-1, with the cause being drought stress. Much evidence among stakeholders shows little understanding about banana cultivar sensitivity, escape and avoidance mechanisms to drought due to un-attempted measures of retaining ...
Among them, drought is widely known as the main factor that limits plants' growth, productivity and development (Reddy et al., 2004; Shao et al., 2008; Li et al., 2009). Recently, drought occured frequently all over the globe due to climate changes (Khaine and Woo, 2015). Light and shade are very important environements ...
Park, Kyoung Su
This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.
Shofiyati, Rizatus; Supriatna, Wahyu; Takeuchi, Wataru; Sofan, Parwati; Darmawan, Soni; Awaluddin
Long droughts experienced in Indonesia in the past are identified as one of the main factors in the failure of rice production. In this regard, special attention to monitor the condition is encouraged to reduce the damage. Currently, various satellite data and approaches can withdraw valuable information for monitoring and anticipating drought hazards. Two types of drought, Meteorology and Agriculture, have been assessed. During the last 10 years, daily and monthly rainfall data derived from TRMM and GSMaP. MTSAT and AMSR-E data have been analyzed to identify meteorological drought. Agricultural drought has been studied by observing the character of some indices (EVI, VCI, VHI, LST, and NDVI) of sixteen-day and monthly MODIS data at a period of 5 years (2009 – 2013). Network for data transfer has been built between LAPAN (data provider), ICALRD (implementer), IAARD Cloud Computing, and University of Tokyo (technical supporter). A Web-GIS based Drought Monitoring Information System has been developed to disseminate the information to end users. This paper describes the implementation of remote sensing drought monitoring model and development of Web-GIS and satellite based information system
While drought is not uncommon in Zambia, the country is now facing the worst drought in history. The monetary and social costs will be enormous. Although it is too early to measure the economic and social costs of the drought on Zambia, it is obvious that the impact is catastrophic on a country whose economy is under pressure. The drought will affect the structural adjustment programme (SAP) unveiled by the new government which has embraced the market economy. The country has imported, and will continue to import, large quantities of maize and other foodstuffs, a situation likely to strain the balance of payments. Earlier targets with regard to export earnings, reductions in the budget deficit, and GDP growth as contained in the Policy Framework Paper (PFP) are no longer attainable due to the effects of the drought.
Beebe, Stephen E.; Rao, Idupulapati M.; Blair, Matthew W.; Acosta-Gallegos, Jorge A.
Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) originated in the New World and are the grain legume of greatest production for direct human consumption. Common bean production is subject to frequent droughts in highland Mexico, in the Pacific coast of Central America, in northeast Brazil, and in eastern and southern Africa from Ethiopia to South Africa. This article reviews efforts to improve common bean for drought tolerance, referring to genetic diversity for drought response, the physiology of drought tolerance mechanisms, and breeding strategies. Different races of common bean respond differently to drought, with race Durango of highland Mexico being a major source of genes. Sister species of P. vulgaris likewise have unique traits, especially P. acutifolius which is well adapted to dryland conditions. Diverse sources of tolerance may have different mechanisms of plant response, implying the need for different methods of phenotyping to recognize the relevant traits. Practical considerations of field management are discussed including: trial planning; water management; and field preparation. PMID:23507928
Soomro, M.H.; Markhand, G.S.
The drought is one of the biggest abiotic stresses for crop production in arid and semi-arid agriculture. Thus it is a challenge for plant scientists to screen and develop the drought tolerant cotton lines. In this study, 31 cotton genotypes/cultivars were evaluated under two irrigation regimes i. e., seven irrigations (Control) and two irrigations (Stress), using split plot design with four replications. The crop growth, yield and some physiological parameters were studied. There were high inter-varietal differences for all the parameters under control as well as drought stress. Although all the varieties for all parameters were significantly affected by drought but however, CRIS-9, MARVI, CRIS-134, CRIS-126, CRIS-337, CRIS-355 and CRIS-377 maintained highest performance for all the parameters studied under high drought conditions. (author)
Widodo, B.; Prinzand, D.; Malik, A.H.
Too little water and too much water can be as devastating as well. Drought usually does not show up instantly like flood, but it creeps slowly. Drought that is less popular than flood has impact more serious than flood. It is difficult to be identified w