Reliability Assessment for Low-cost Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Paul Michael

Existing low-cost unmanned aerospace systems are unreliable, and engineers must blend reliability analysis with fault-tolerant control in novel ways. This dissertation introduces the University of Minnesota unmanned aerial vehicle flight research platform, a comprehensive simulation and flight test facility for reliability and fault-tolerance research. An industry-standard reliability assessment technique, the failure modes and effects analysis, is performed for an unmanned aircraft. Particular attention is afforded to the control surface and servo-actuation subsystem. Maintaining effector health is essential for safe flight; failures may lead to loss of control incidents. Failure likelihood, severity, and risk are qualitatively assessed for several effector failure modes. Design changes are recommended to improve aircraft reliability based on this analysis. Most notably, the control surfaces are split, providing independent actuation and dual-redundancy. The simulation models for control surface aerodynamic effects are updated to reflect the split surfaces using a first-principles geometric analysis. The failure modes and effects analysis is extended by using a high-fidelity nonlinear aircraft simulation. A trim state discovery is performed to identify the achievable steady, wings-level flight envelope of the healthy and damaged vehicle. Tolerance of elevator actuator failures is studied using familiar tools from linear systems analysis. This analysis reveals significant inherent performance limitations for candidate adaptive/reconfigurable control algorithms used for the vehicle. Moreover, it demonstrates how these tools can be applied in a design feedback loop to make safety-critical unmanned systems more reliable. Control surface impairments that do occur must be quickly and accurately detected. This dissertation also considers fault detection and identification for an unmanned aerial vehicle using model-based and model-free approaches and applies those

Least-cost failure diagnosis in uncertain reliability systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, Louis Anthony; Chiu, Steve Y.; Sun Xiaorong

1996-01-01

In many textbook solutions, for systems failure diagnosis problems studied using reliability theory and artificial intelligence, the prior probabilities of different failure states can be estimated and used to guide the sequential search for failed components after the whole system fails. In practice, however, both the component failure probabilities and the structure function of the system being examined--i.e., the mapping between the states of its components and the state of the system--may not be known with certainty. At best:, the probabilities of different hypothesized system descriptions, each specifying the component failure probabilities and the system's structure function, may be known to a useful approximation, perhaps based on sample data and previous experience. Cost-effective diagnosis of the system's failure state is then a challenging problem. Although the probabilities of component failures are aleatory, uncertainties about these probabilities and about the system structure function are epistemic. This paper examines how to make best use of both epistemic prior probabilities for system descriptions and the information gleaned from costly inspections of component states after the system fails, to minimize the average cost of identifying the failure state. Two approaches are introduced for systems dominated by aleatory uncertainties, one motivated by information theory and the other based on the idea of trying to prove a hypothesis about the identity of the failure state as efficiently as possible. While the general problem of cost-effective failure diagnosis is computationally intractable (NP-hard), both heuristics provide useful approximations on small to moderate sized problems and optimal results for certain common types of reliability systems, including series, parallel, parallel-series, and k-out-of-n systems. A hybrid heuristic that adaptively chooses which heuristic to apply next after any sequence of observations (component test results

People consider reliability and cost when verifying their autobiographical memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Kimberley A; Nash, Robert A; Garry, Maryanne

2014-02-01

Because memories are not always accurate, people rely on a variety of strategies to verify whether the events that they remember really did occur. Several studies have examined which strategies people tend to use, but none to date has asked why people opt for certain strategies over others. Here we examined the extent to which people's beliefs about the reliability and the cost of different strategies would determine their strategy selection. Subjects described a childhood memory and then suggested strategies they might use to verify the accuracy of that memory. Next, they rated the reliability and cost of each strategy, and the likelihood that they might use it. Reliability and cost each predicted strategy selection, but a combination of the two ratings provided even greater predictive value. Cost was significantly more influential than reliability, which suggests that a tendency to seek and to value "cheap" information more than reliable information could underlie many real-world memory errors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliable cost effective technique for in situ ground stress measurements in deep gold mines.

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Stacey, TR

1995-07-01

Full Text Available on these requirements, an in situ stress measurement technique which will be practically applicable in the deep gold mines, has been developed conceptually. Referring to the figure on the following page, this method involves: • a borehole-based system, using... level mines have not been developed. 2 This is some of the background to the present SIMRAC research project, the title ofwhich is “Reliable cost effective technique for in-situ ground stress measurements in deep gold mines”. A copy of the research...

Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

2018-03-01

In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

Flash memories economic principles of performance, cost and reliability optimization

CERN Document Server

Richter, Detlev

2014-01-01

The subject of this book is to introduce a model-based quantitative performance indicator methodology applicable for performance, cost and reliability optimization of non-volatile memories. The complex example of flash memories is used to introduce and apply the methodology. It has been developed by the author based on an industrial 2-bit to 4-bit per cell flash development project. For the first time, design and cost aspects of 3D integration of flash memory are treated in this book. Cell, array, performance and reliability effects of flash memories are introduced and analyzed. Key performance parameters are derived to handle the flash complexity. A performance and array memory model is developed and a set of performance indicators characterizing architecture, cost and durability is defined.   Flash memories are selected to apply the Performance Indicator Methodology to quantify design and technology innovation. A graphical representation based on trend lines is introduced to support a requirement based pr...

Transmission cost allocation based on power flow tracing considering reliability benefit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leepreechanon, N.; Singharerg, S.; Padungwech, W.; Nakawiro, W.; Eua-Arporn, B.; David, A.K.

2007-01-01

Power transmission networks must be able to accommodate the continuously growing demand for reliable and economical electricity. This paper presented a method to allocate transmission use and reliability cost to both generators and end-consumers. Although transmission cost allocation methods change depending on the local context of the electric power industry, there is a common principle that transmission line capacity should be properly allocated to accommodate actual power delivery with an adequate reliability margin. The method proposed in this paper allocates transmission embedded cost to both generators and loads in an equitable manner, incorporating probability indices to allocate transmission reliability margin among users in both supply and demand sides. The application of the proposed method was illustrated using Bialek's tracing method on a multiple-circuit, six-bus transmission system. Probabilistic indices known as the transmission internal reliability margin (TIRM) and transmission external reliability margin (TERM) decomposed from the transmission reliability margin (TRM) were introduced, making true cost of using overall transmission facilities. 6 refs., 11 tabs., 5 figs

Plastic packaged microcircuits: Quality, reliability, and cost issues

Science.gov (United States)

Pecht, Michael G.; Agarwal, Rakesh; Quearry, Dan

1993-12-01

Plastic encapsulated microcircuits (PEMs) find their main application in commercial and telecommunication electronics. The advantages of PEMs in cost, size, weight, performance, and market lead-time, have attracted 97% of the market share of worldwide microcircuit sales. However, PEMs have always been resisted in US Government and military applications due to the perception that PEM reliability is low. This paper surveys plastic packaging with respect to the issues of reliability, market lead-time, performance, cost, and weight as a means to guide part-selection and system-design.

Reliability/Cost Evaluation on Power System connected with Wind Power for the Reserve Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lee, Go-Eun; Cha, Seung-Tae; Shin, Je-Seok

2012-01-01

Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

Comprehensive low-cost reliability centered maintenance. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rotton, S.J.; Dozier, I.J.; Thow, R.

1995-09-01

Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) is a maintenance optimization approach that all electric utilities can apply to power plant systems. The Electric Power Research Institute and PECO Energy Company jointly sponsored this Comprehensive Low-Cost Reliability Centered Maintenance project to demonstrate that the standard RCM methodology could be streamlined to reduce the cost of analysis while maintaining a high quality product. EPRI's previous investigation of streamlined RCM methods being pioneered in the nuclear industry indicated that PECO Energy could expect to optimize its maintenance program at reduced cost by carefully controlling the scope without sacrificing documentation or technical quality. Using the insights obtained from these previous studies, three methods were defined in this project and were demonstrated in a large scale application to 60 systems at both the Limerick Generating Station and the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station

Reliability-Based Marginal Cost Pricing Problem Case with Both Demand Uncertainty and Travelers’ Perception Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaopeng Zhong

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Focusing on the first-best marginal cost pricing (MCP in a stochastic network with both travel demand uncertainty and stochastic perception errors within the travelers’ route choice decision processes, this paper develops a perceived risk-based stochastic network marginal cost pricing (PRSN-MCP model. Numerical examples based on an integrated method combining the moment analysis approach, the fitting distribution method, and the reliability measures are also provided to demonstrate the importance and properties of the proposed model. The main finding is that ignoring the effect of travel time reliability and travelers’ perception errors may significantly reduce the performance of the first-best MCP tolls, especially under high travelers’ confidence and network congestion levels. The analysis result could also enhance our understanding of (1 the effect of stochastic perception error (SPE on the perceived travel time distribution and the components of road toll; (2 the effect of road toll on the actual travel time distribution and its reliability measures; (3 the effect of road toll on the total network travel time distribution and its statistics; and (4 the effect of travel demand level and the value of reliability (VoR level on the components of road toll.

Novel Low Cost, High Reliability Wind Turbine Drivetrain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chobot, Anthony; Das, Debarshi; Mayer, Tyler; Markey, Zach; Martinson, Tim; Reeve, Hayden; Attridge, Paul; El-Wardany, Tahany

2012-09-13

Clipper Windpower, in collaboration with United Technologies Research Center, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Hamilton Sundstrand Corporation, developed a low-cost, deflection-compliant, reliable, and serviceable chain drive speed increaser. This chain and sprocket drivetrain design offers significant breakthroughs in the areas of cost and serviceability and addresses the key challenges of current geared and direct-drive systems. The use of gearboxes has proven to be challenging; the large torques and bending loads associated with use in large multi-MW wind applications have generally limited demonstrated lifetime to 8-10 years [1]. The large cost of gearbox replacement and the required use of large, expensive cranes can result in gearbox replacement costs on the order of $1M, representing a significant impact to overall cost of energy (COE). Direct-drive machines eliminate the gearbox, thereby targeting increased reliability and reduced life-cycle cost. However, the slow rotational speeds require very large and costly generators, which also typically have an undesirable dependence on expensive rare-earth magnet materials and large structural penalties for precise air gap control. The cost of rare-earth materials has increased 20X in the last 8 years representing a key risk to ever realizing the promised cost of energy reductions from direct-drive generators. A common challenge to both geared and direct drive architectures is a limited ability to manage input shaft deflections. The proposed Clipper drivetrain is deflection-compliant, insulating later drivetrain stages and generators from off-axis loads. The system is modular, allowing for all key parts to be removed and replaced without the use of a high capacity crane. Finally, the technology modularity allows for scalability and many possible drivetrain topologies. These benefits enable reductions in drivetrain capital cost by 10.0%, levelized replacement and O&M costs by 26.7%, and overall cost of

Wind turbine reliability :understanding and minimizing wind turbine operation and maintenance costs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walford, Christopher A. (Global Energy Concepts. Kirkland, WA)

2006-03-01

Wind turbine system reliability is a critical factor in the success of a wind energy project. Poor reliability directly affects both the project's revenue stream through increased operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduced availability to generate power due to turbine downtime. Indirectly, the acceptance of wind-generated power by the financial and developer communities as a viable enterprise is influenced by the risk associated with the capital equipment reliability; increased risk, or at least the perception of increased risk, is generally accompanied by increased financing fees or interest rates. This paper outlines the issues relevant to wind turbine reliability for wind turbine power generation projects. The first sections describe the current state of the industry, identify the cost elements associated with wind farm O&M and availability and discuss the causes of uncertainty in estimating wind turbine component reliability. The latter sections discuss the means for reducing O&M costs and propose O&M related research and development efforts that could be pursued by the wind energy research community to reduce cost of energy.

Transmission embedded cost allocation methodology with consideration of system reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hur, D.; Park, J.-K.; Yoo, C.-I.; Kim, B.H.

2004-01-01

In a vertically integrated utility industry, the cost of reliability, as a separate service, has not received much rigorous analysis. However, as a cornerstone of restructuring the industry, the transmission service pricing must change to be consistent with, and supportive of, competitive wholesale electricity markets. This paper focuses on the equitable allocation of transmission network embedded costs including the transmission reliability cost based on the contributions of each generator to branch flows under normal conditions as well as the line outage impact factor under a variety of load levels. A numerical example on a six-bus system is given to illustrate the applications of the proposed methodology. (author)

Cost-effective solutions to maintaining smart grid reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Qiu

As the aging power systems are increasingly working closer to the capacity and thermal limits, maintaining an sufficient reliability has been of great concern to the government agency, utility companies and users. This dissertation focuses on improving the reliability of transmission and distribution systems. Based on the wide area measurements, multiple model algorithms are developed to diagnose transmission line three-phase short to ground faults in the presence of protection misoperations. The multiple model algorithms utilize the electric network dynamics to provide prompt and reliable diagnosis outcomes. Computational complexity of the diagnosis algorithm is reduced by using a two-step heuristic. The multiple model algorithm is incorporated into a hybrid simulation framework, which consist of both continuous state simulation and discrete event simulation, to study the operation of transmission systems. With hybrid simulation, line switching strategy for enhancing the tolerance to protection misoperations is studied based on the concept of security index, which involves the faulted mode probability and stability coverage. Local measurements are used to track the generator state and faulty mode probabilities are calculated in the multiple model algorithms. FACTS devices are considered as controllers for the transmission system. The placement of FACTS devices into power systems is investigated with a criterion of maintaining a prescribed level of control reconfigurability. Control reconfigurability measures the small signal combined controllability and observability of a power system with an additional requirement on fault tolerance. For the distribution systems, a hierarchical framework, including a high level recloser allocation scheme and a low level recloser placement scheme, is presented. The impacts of recloser placement on the reliability indices is analyzed. Evaluation of reliability indices in the placement process is carried out via discrete event

Revenue Sufficiency and Reliability in a Zero Marginal Cost Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frew, Bethany A.

2017-04-17

Features of existing wholesale electricity markets, such as administrative pricing rules and policy-based reliability standards, can distort market incentives from allowing generators sufficient opportunities to recover both fixed and variable costs. Moreover, these challenges can be amplified by other factors, including (1) inelastic demand resulting from a lack of price signal clarity, (2) low- or near-zero marginal cost generation, particularly arising from low natural gas fuel prices and variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar, and (3) the variability and uncertainty of this VG. As power systems begin to incorporate higher shares of VG, many questions arise about the suitability of the existing marginal-cost-based price formation, primarily within an energy-only market structure, to ensure the economic viability of resources that might be needed to provide system reliability. This article discusses these questions and provides a summary of completed and ongoing modelling-based work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to better understand the impacts of evolving power systems on reliability and revenue sufficiency.

Alternative ceramic circuit constructions for low cost, high reliability applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modes, Ch.; O'Neil, M.

1997-01-01

The growth in the use of hybrid circuit technology has recently been challenged by recent advances in low cost laminate technology, as well as the continued integration of functions into IC's. Size reduction of hybrid 'packages' has turned out to be a means to extend the useful life of this technology. The suppliers of thick film materials technology have responded to this challenge by developing a number of technology options to reduce circuit size, increase density, and reduce overall cost, while maintaining or increasing reliability. This paper provides an overview of the processes that have been developed, and, in many cases are used widely to produce low cost, reliable microcircuits. Comparisons of each of these circuit fabrication processes are made with a discussion of advantages and disadvantages of each technology. (author)

Standard semiconductor packaging for high-reliability low-cost MEMS applications

Science.gov (United States)

Harney, Kieran P.

2005-01-01

Microelectronic packaging technology has evolved over the years in response to the needs of IC technology. The fundamental purpose of the package is to provide protection for the silicon chip and to provide electrical connection to the circuit board. Major change has been witnessed in packaging and today wafer level packaging technology has further revolutionized the industry. MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical Systems) technology has created new challenges for packaging that do not exist in standard ICs. However, the fundamental objective of MEMS packaging is the same as traditional ICs, the low cost and reliable presentation of the MEMS chip to the next level interconnect. Inertial MEMS is one of the best examples of the successful commercialization of MEMS technology. The adoption of MEMS accelerometers for automotive airbag applications has created a high volume market that demands the highest reliability at low cost. The suppliers to these markets have responded by exploiting standard semiconductor packaging infrastructures. However, there are special packaging needs for MEMS that cannot be ignored. New applications for inertial MEMS devices are emerging in the consumer space that adds the imperative of small size to the need for reliability and low cost. These trends are not unique to MEMS accelerometers. For any MEMS technology to be successful the packaging must provide the basic reliability and interconnection functions, adding the least possible cost to the product. This paper will discuss the evolution of MEMS packaging in the accelerometer industry and identify the main issues that needed to be addressed to enable the successful commercialization of the technology in the automotive and consumer markets.

Design and implementation of a reliable and cost-effective cloud computing infrastructure: the INFN Napoli experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capone, V; Esposito, R; Pardi, S; Taurino, F; Tortone, G

2012-01-01

Over the last few years we have seen an increasing number of services and applications needed to manage and maintain cloud computing facilities. This is particularly true for computing in high energy physics, which often requires complex configurations and distributed infrastructures. In this scenario a cost effective rationalization and consolidation strategy is the key to success in terms of scalability and reliability. In this work we describe an IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) cloud computing system, with high availability and redundancy features, which is currently in production at INFN-Naples and ATLAS Tier-2 data centre. The main goal we intended to achieve was a simplified method to manage our computing resources and deliver reliable user services, reusing existing hardware without incurring heavy costs. A combined usage of virtualization and clustering technologies allowed us to consolidate our services on a small number of physical machines, reducing electric power costs. As a result of our efforts we developed a complete solution for data and computing centres that can be easily replicated using commodity hardware. Our architecture consists of 2 main subsystems: a clustered storage solution, built on top of disk servers running GlusterFS file system, and a virtual machines execution environment. GlusterFS is a network file system able to perform parallel writes on multiple disk servers, providing this way live replication of data. High availability is also achieved via a network configuration using redundant switches and multiple paths between hypervisor hosts and disk servers. We also developed a set of management scripts to easily perform basic system administration tasks such as automatic deployment of new virtual machines, adaptive scheduling of virtual machines on hypervisor hosts, live migration and automated restart in case of hypervisor failures.

Design and implementation of a reliable and cost-effective cloud computing infrastructure: the INFN Napoli experience

Science.gov (United States)

Capone, V.; Esposito, R.; Pardi, S.; Taurino, F.; Tortone, G.

2012-12-01

Over the last few years we have seen an increasing number of services and applications needed to manage and maintain cloud computing facilities. This is particularly true for computing in high energy physics, which often requires complex configurations and distributed infrastructures. In this scenario a cost effective rationalization and consolidation strategy is the key to success in terms of scalability and reliability. In this work we describe an IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) cloud computing system, with high availability and redundancy features, which is currently in production at INFN-Naples and ATLAS Tier-2 data centre. The main goal we intended to achieve was a simplified method to manage our computing resources and deliver reliable user services, reusing existing hardware without incurring heavy costs. A combined usage of virtualization and clustering technologies allowed us to consolidate our services on a small number of physical machines, reducing electric power costs. As a result of our efforts we developed a complete solution for data and computing centres that can be easily replicated using commodity hardware. Our architecture consists of 2 main subsystems: a clustered storage solution, built on top of disk servers running GlusterFS file system, and a virtual machines execution environment. GlusterFS is a network file system able to perform parallel writes on multiple disk servers, providing this way live replication of data. High availability is also achieved via a network configuration using redundant switches and multiple paths between hypervisor hosts and disk servers. We also developed a set of management scripts to easily perform basic system administration tasks such as automatic deployment of new virtual machines, adaptive scheduling of virtual machines on hypervisor hosts, live migration and automated restart in case of hypervisor failures.

Designing the optimal bit: balancing energetic cost, speed and reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Deshpande, Abhishek; Gopalkrishnan, Manoj; Ouldridge, Thomas E; Jones, Nick S

2017-08-01

We consider the challenge of operating a reliable bit that can be rapidly erased. We find that both erasing and reliability times are non-monotonic in the underlying friction, leading to a trade-off between erasing speed and bit reliability. Fast erasure is possible at the expense of low reliability at moderate friction, and high reliability comes at the expense of slow erasure in the underdamped and overdamped limits. Within a given class of bit parameters and control strategies, we define 'optimal' designs of bits that meet the desired reliability and erasing time requirements with the lowest operational work cost. We find that optimal designs always saturate the bound on the erasing time requirement, but can exceed the required reliability time if critically damped. The non-trivial geometry of the reliability and erasing time scales allows us to exclude large regions of parameter space as suboptimal. We find that optimal designs are either critically damped or close to critical damping under the erasing procedure.

Design for Six Sigma: Approach for reliability and low-cost manufacturing.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesus Gerardo Cruz Alvarez

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to discuss new product development based on a traditional stage-gate process and to examine how new product development [NPD] tools, such as lean design for Six Sigma, can accelerate the achievement of the main goals of NPD: reliable product quality, cost-effective implementation, and desired time-to-market. These new tools must be incorporated into a new approach to NPD based on the Advanced Product and Quality Planning methodology.

Revenue Sufficiency and Reliability in a Zero Marginal Cost Future: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frew, Bethany A.; Milligan, Michael; Brinkman, Greg; Bloom, Aaron; Clark, Kara; Denholm, Paul

2016-12-01

Features of existing wholesale electricity markets, such as administrative pricing rules and policy-based reliability standards, can distort market incentives from allowing generators sufficient opportunities to recover both fixed and variable costs. Moreover, these challenges can be amplified by other factors, including (1) inelastic demand resulting from a lack of price signal clarity, (2) low- or near-zero marginal cost generation, particularly arising from low natural gas fuel prices and variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar, and (3) the variability and uncertainty of this VG. As power systems begin to incorporate higher shares of VG, many questions arise about the suitability of the existing marginal-cost-based price formation, primarily within an energy-only market structure, to ensure the economic viability of resources that might be needed to provide system reliability. This article discusses these questions and provides a summary of completed and ongoing modelling-based work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to better understand the impacts of evolving power systems on reliability and revenue sufficiency.

Optimization of Reliability Centered Maintenance Bassed on Maintenance Costs and Reliability with Consideration of Location of Components

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahdi Karbasian

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The reliability of designing systems such as electrical and electronic circuits, power generation/ distribution networks and mechanical systems, in which the failure of a component may cause the whole system failure, and even the reliability of cellular manufacturing systems that their machines are connected to as series are critically important. So far approaches for improving the reliability of these systems have been mainly based on the enhancement of inherent reliability of any system component or increasing system reliability based on maintenance strategies. Also in some of the resources, only the influence of the location of systems' components on reliability is studied. Therefore, it seems other approaches have been rarely applied. In this paper, a multi criteria model has been proposed to perform a balance among a system's reliability, location costs, and its system maintenance. Finally, a numerical example has been presented and solved by the Lingo software.

Offshore compression system design for low cost high and reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Castro, Carlos J. Rocha de O.; Carrijo Neto, Antonio Dias; Cordeiro, Alexandre Franca [Chemtech Engineering Services and Software Ltd., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Special Projects Div.], Emails: antonio.carrijo@chemtech.com.br, carlos.rocha@chemtech.com.br, alexandre.cordeiro@chemtech.com.br

2010-07-01

In the offshore oil fields, the oil streams coming from the wells usually have significant amounts of gas. This gas is separated at low pressure and has to be compressed to the export pipeline pressure, usually at high pressure to reduce the needed diameter of the pipelines. In the past, this gases where flared, but nowadays there are a increasing pressure for the energy efficiency improvement of the oil rigs and the use of this gaseous fraction. The most expensive equipment of this kind of plant are the compression and power generation systems, being the second a strong function of the first, because the most power consuming equipment are the compressors. For this reason, the optimization of the compression system in terms of efficiency and cost are determinant to the plant profit. The availability of the plants also have a strong influence in the plant profit, specially in gas fields where the products have a relatively low aggregated value, compared to oil. Due this, the third design variable of the compression system becomes the reliability. As high the reliability, larger will be the plant production. The main ways to improve the reliability of compression system are the use of multiple compression trains in parallel, in a 2x50% or 3x50% configuration, with one in stand-by. Such configurations are possible and have some advantages and disadvantages, but the main side effect is the increase of the cost. This is the offshore common practice, but that does not always significantly improve the plant availability, depending of the previous process system. A series arrangement and a critical evaluation of the overall system in some cases can provide a cheaper system with equal or better performance. This paper shows a case study of the procedure to evaluate a compression system design to improve the reliability but without extreme cost increase, balancing the number of equipment, the series or parallel arrangement, and the driver selection. Two cases studies will be

Using Length of Stay to Control for Unobserved Heterogeneity When Estimating Treatment Effect on Hospital Costs with Observational Data: Issues of Reliability, Robustness, and Usefulness.

Science.gov (United States)

May, Peter; Garrido, Melissa M; Cassel, J Brian; Morrison, R Sean; Normand, Charles

2016-10-01

To evaluate the sensitivity of treatment effect estimates when length of stay (LOS) is used to control for unobserved heterogeneity when estimating treatment effect on cost of hospital admission with observational data. We used data from a prospective cohort study on the impact of palliative care consultation teams (PCCTs) on direct cost of hospital care. Adult patients with an advanced cancer diagnosis admitted to five large medical and cancer centers in the United States between 2007 and 2011 were eligible for this study. Costs were modeled using generalized linear models with a gamma distribution and a log link. We compared variability in estimates of PCCT impact on hospitalization costs when LOS was used as a covariate, as a sample parameter, and as an outcome denominator. We used propensity scores to account for patient characteristics associated with both PCCT use and total direct hospitalization costs. We analyzed data from hospital cost databases, medical records, and questionnaires. Our propensity score weighted sample included 969 patients who were discharged alive. In analyses of hospitalization costs, treatment effect estimates are highly sensitive to methods that control for LOS, complicating interpretation. Both the magnitude and significance of results varied widely with the method of controlling for LOS. When we incorporated intervention timing into our analyses, results were robust to LOS-controls. Treatment effect estimates using LOS-controls are not only suboptimal in terms of reliability (given concerns over endogeneity and bias) and usefulness (given the need to validate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention using overall resource use for a sample defined at baseline) but also in terms of robustness (results depend on the approach taken, and there is little evidence to guide this choice). To derive results that minimize endogeneity concerns and maximize external validity, investigators should match and analyze treatment and comparison arms

Replacement energy, capacity, and reliability costs for permanent nuclear reactor shutdowns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

VanKuiken, J.C., Buehring, W.A.; Hamilton, S.; Kavicky, J.A.; Cavallo, J.D.; Veselka, T.D.; Willing, D.L.

1993-10-01

Average replacement power costs are estimated for potential permanent shutdowns of nuclear electricity-generating units. Replacement power costs are considered to include replacement energy, capacity, and reliability cost components. These estimates were developed to assist the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in evaluating regulatory issues that potentially affect changes in serious reactor accident frequencies. Cost estimates were derived from long-term production-cost and capacity expansion simulations of pooled utility-system operations. Factors that affect replacement power cost, such as load growth, replacement sources of generation, and capital costs for replacement capacity, were treated in the analysis. Costs are presented for a representative reactor and for selected subcategories of reactors, based on estimates for 112 individual reactors

Reliability and cost evaluation of small isolated power systems containing photovoltaic and wind energy

Science.gov (United States)

Karki, Rajesh

Renewable energy application in electric power systems is growing rapidly worldwide due to enhanced public concerns for adverse environmental impacts and escalation in energy costs associated with the use of conventional energy sources. Photovoltaics and wind energy sources are being increasingly recognized as cost effective generation sources. A comprehensive evaluation of reliability and cost is required to analyze the actual benefits of utilizing these energy sources. The reliability aspects of utilizing renewable energy sources have largely been ignored in the past due the relatively insignificant contribution of these sources in major power systems, and consequently due to the lack of appropriate techniques. Renewable energy sources have the potential to play a significant role in the electrical energy requirements of small isolated power systems which are primarily supplied by costly diesel fuel. A relatively high renewable energy penetration can significantly reduce the system fuel costs but can also have considerable impact on the system reliability. Small isolated systems routinely plan their generating facilities using deterministic adequacy methods that cannot incorporate the highly erratic behavior of renewable energy sources. The utilization of a single probabilistic risk index has not been generally accepted in small isolated system evaluation despite its utilization in most large power utilities. Deterministic and probabilistic techniques are combined in this thesis using a system well-being approach to provide useful adequacy indices for small isolated systems that include renewable energy. This thesis presents an evaluation model for small isolated systems containing renewable energy sources by integrating simulation models that generate appropriate atmospheric data, evaluate chronological renewable power outputs and combine total available energy and load to provide useful system indices. A software tool SIPSREL+ has been developed which generates

A reliable, compact and low-cost Michelson wavemeter for laser wavelength measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fox, P.J.; Scholten, R.E.; Walkiewicz, M.R.; Drullinger, R.E.

1998-01-01

We describe the construction and operation of a simple, compact and cost effective Michelson wavemeter with picometer accuracy. The low cost of the device means that it can form the basis of an undergraduate laboratory experiment, yet it is sufficiently reliable and accurate that it has become an important tool in our research laboratory, where it is regularly used to tune lasers to atomic transitions. The usefulness and accuracy of the wavemeter is demonstrated by tuning two separate extended cavity diode lasers to achieve two-step excitation of the Rb 5 2 D state, observed by detecting 420 nm blue fluorescence from the 5 2 D → 6 2 P → 5 2 S decay path. (authors)

Modeling Optimal Scheduling for Pumping System to Minimize Operation Cost and Enhance Operation Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yin Luo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Traditional pump scheduling models neglect the operation reliability which directly relates with the unscheduled maintenance cost and the wear cost during the operation. Just for this, based on the assumption that the vibration directly relates with the operation reliability and the degree of wear, it could express the operation reliability as the normalization of the vibration level. The characteristic of the vibration with the operation point was studied, it could be concluded that idealized flow versus vibration plot should be a distinct bathtub shape. There is a narrow sweet spot (80 to 100 percent BEP to obtain low vibration levels in this shape, and the vibration also follows similar law with the square of the rotation speed without resonance phenomena. Then, the operation reliability could be modeled as the function of the capacity and rotation speed of the pump and add this function to the traditional model to form the new. And contrast with the tradition method, the result shown that the new model could fix the result produced by the traditional, make the pump operate in low vibration, then the operation reliability could increase and the maintenance cost could decrease.

A Highly Reliable and Cost-Efficient Multi-Sensor System for Land Vehicle Positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Li

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a novel positioning solution for land vehicles which is highly reliable and cost-efficient. The proposed positioning system fuses information from the MEMS-based reduced inertial sensor system (RISS which consists of one vertical gyroscope and two horizontal accelerometers, low-cost GPS, and supplementary sensors and sources. First, pitch and roll angle are accurately estimated based on a vehicle kinematic model. Meanwhile, the negative effect of the uncertain nonlinear drift of MEMS inertial sensors is eliminated by an H∞ filter. Further, a distributed-dual-H∞ filtering (DDHF mechanism is adopted to address the uncertain nonlinear drift of the MEMS-RISS and make full use of the supplementary sensors and sources. The DDHF is composed of a main H∞ filter (MHF and an auxiliary H∞ filter (AHF. Finally, a generalized regression neural network (GRNN module with good approximation capability is specially designed for the MEMS-RISS. A hybrid methodology which combines the GRNN module and the AHF is utilized to compensate for RISS position errors during GPS outages. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed solution, road-test experiments with various scenarios were performed. The experimental results illustrate that the proposed system can achieve accurate and reliable positioning for land vehicles.

A pilot study to explore the feasibility of using theClinical Care Classification System for developing a reliable costing method for nursing services.

Science.gov (United States)

Dykes, Patricia C; Wantland, Dean; Whittenburg, Luann; Lipsitz, Stuart; Saba, Virginia K

2013-01-01

While nursing activities represent a significant proportion of inpatient care, there are no reliable methods for determining nursing costs based on the actual services provided by the nursing staff. Capture of data to support accurate measurement and reporting on the cost of nursing services is fundamental to effective resource utilization. Adopting standard terminologies that support tracking both the quality and the cost of care could reduce the data entry burden on direct care providers. This pilot study evaluated the feasibility of using a standardized nursing terminology, the Clinical Care Classification System (CCC), for developing a reliable costing method for nursing services. Two different approaches are explored; the Relative Value Unit RVU and the simple cost-to-time methods. We found that the simple cost-to-time method was more accurate and more transparent in its derivation than the RVU method and may support a more consistent and reliable approach for costing nursing services.

Business Cases for Microgrids: Modeling Interactions of Technology Choice, Reliability, Cost, and Benefit

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Ryan

Distributed energy resources (DERs), and increasingly microgrids, are becoming an integral part of modern distribution systems. Interest in microgrids--which are insular and autonomous power networks embedded within the bulk grid--stems largely from the vast array of flexibilities and benefits they can offer stakeholders. Managed well, they can improve grid reliability and resiliency, increase end-use energy efficiency by coupling electric and thermal loads, reduce transmission losses by generating power locally, and may reduce system-wide emissions, among many others. Whether these public benefits are realized, however, depends on whether private firms see a "business case", or private value, in investing. To this end, firms need models that evaluate costs, benefits, risks, and assumptions that underlie decisions to invest. The objectives of this dissertation are to assess the business case for microgrids that provide what industry analysts forecast as two primary drivers of market growth--that of providing energy services (similar to an electric utility) as well as reliability service to customers within. Prototypical first adopters are modeled--using an existing model to analyze energy services and a new model that couples that analysis with one of reliability--to explore interactions between technology choice, reliability, costs, and benefits. The new model has a bi-level hierarchy; it uses heuristic optimization to select and size DERs and analytical optimization to schedule them. It further embeds Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate reliability as well as regression models for customer damage functions to monetize reliability. It provides least-cost microgrid configurations for utility customers who seek to reduce interruption and operating costs. Lastly, the model is used to explore the impact of such adoption on system-wide greenhouse gas emissions in California. Results indicate that there are, at present, co-benefits for emissions reductions when customers

The reliability of running economy expressed as oxygen cost and energy cost in trained distance runners.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Andrew J; Ingham, Stephen A; Fudge, Barry W; Folland, Jonathan P

2013-12-01

This study assessed the between-test reliability of oxygen cost (OC) and energy cost (EC) in distance runners, and contrasted it with the smallest worthwhile change (SWC) of these measures. OC and EC displayed similar levels of within-subject variation (typical error < 3.85%). However, the typical error (2.75% vs 2.74%) was greater than the SWC (1.38% vs 1.71%) for both OC and EC, respectively, indicating insufficient sensitivity to confidently detect small, but meaningful, changes in OC and EC.

Reliability of optical fibres and components final report of COST 246

CERN Document Server

Griffioen, Willem; Gadonna, Michel; Limberger, Hans; Heens, Bernard; Knuuttila, Hanna; Kurkjian, Charles; Mirza, Shehzad; Opacic, Aleksandar; Regio, Paola; Semjonov, Sergei

1999-01-01

Reliability of Optical Fibres and Components reports the findings of COST 246 (1993-1998) - European research initiative in the field of optical telecommunications. Experts in the materials and reliability field of optical fibres and components have contributed to this unique study programme. The results, conclusions and achievements of their work have been obtained through joint experimentation and discussion with representatives from manufacturing and research groups. Topics covered include: Lifetime estimation; Failure mechanisms; Ageing test methods; Field data and service environments for components. For the first time the reader can explore the reliability of products and examine the results and conclusions in published form. This comprehensive volume is intended to provide a deeper understanding of the reliability of optical fibres and components. The book will be extremely useful to all scientists and practitioners involved in the industry.

A cost-efficient and reliable energy management of a micro-grid using intelligent demand-response program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safamehr, Hossein; Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan

2015-01-01

Providing a cost-efficient and reliable energy is one of the main issues in human societies of the 21st century. In response to this demand, new features of micro grid technology have provided huge potentials, specifically by the capability of having an interactive coordination between energy suppliers and consumers. Accordingly, this paper offers an improved model for achieving an optimal Demand Response programing. To solve the proposed multi-objective optimization problem, Artificial Bee Colony algorithm and quasi-static technique are utilized. The considered objectives in this paper are minimizing the overall cost of energy consumption and also improving the technical parameters of micro grid over a time horizon. This optimization is subject to several constraints such as satisfying the energy balance and the operating constraints of each energy supply sources. Manageable load or load as source is another enabling feature existing in smart energy networks, which is considered in this paper and its effect on cost reduction and reliability improvement is studied. Trying to examine the performance of the proposed Demand Response Programing in real conditions, the uncertainties are also analyzed by stochastic methods. The results show significant improvements which are obtained by applying just intelligent programming and management. - Highlights: • This paper presents a cost-efficient and reliable energy management of a micro-grid. • New models of battery and manageable loads are formulated. • Artificial Bee Colony algorithm is used to solve the optimization problem. • Quasi-static technique is used to simplify the solving procedure. • The uncertainties are also analyzed by stochastic methods.

Reliability-Based and Cost-Oriented Product Optimization Integrating Fuzzy Reasoning Petri Nets, Interval Expert Evaluation and Cultural-Based DMOPSO Using Crowding Distance Sorting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhaoxi Hong

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization, the target product reliability is apportioned to subsystems or components to achieve the maximum reliability and minimum cost. Main challenges to conducting such optimization design lie in how to simultaneously consider subsystem division, uncertain evaluation provided by experts for essential factors, and dynamic propagation of product failure. To overcome these problems, a reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization method integrating fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN, interval expert evaluation and cultural-based dynamic multi-objective particle swarm optimization (DMOPSO using crowding distance sorting is proposed in this paper. Subsystem division is performed based on failure decoupling, and then subsystem weights are calculated with FRPN reflecting dynamic and uncertain failure propagation, as well as interval expert evaluation considering six essential factors. A mathematical model of reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization is established, and the cultural-based DMOPSO with crowding distance sorting is utilized to obtain the optimized design scheme. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method are demonstrated by the numerical example of the optimization design for a computer numerically controlled (CNC machine tool.

Cost/worth assessment of reliability improvement in distribution networks by means of artificial intelligence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bouhouras, Aggelos S.; Labridis, Dimitris P.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G. [Power Systems Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece)

2010-06-15

A major challenge for the power utilities today is to ensure a high level of reliability of supply to customers. Two main factors determine the feasibility of a project that improves the reliability of supply: the project cost (investment and operational) and the benefits that result from the implementation of the project. This paper examines the implementation of an Artificial Intelligence System in an urban distribution network, capable to locate and isolate short circuit faults in the feeder, thus accomplishing immediate restoration of electric supply to the customers. The paper describes the benefits of the project, which are supply reliability improvement and distribution network loss reduction through network reconfigurations. By comparison of the project benefits and costs the economic feasibility of such a project for an underground distribution feeder in Greece is demonstrated. (author)

Custom LSI plus hybrid equals cost effectiveness

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, S. N.

The possibility to combine various technologies, such as Bi-Polar linear and CMOS/Digital makes it feasible to create systems with a tailored performance not available on a single monolithic circuit. The custom LSI 'BLOCK', especially if it is universal in nature, is proving to be a cost effective way for the developer to improve his product. The custom LSI represents a low price part in contrast to the discrete components it will replace. In addition, the hybrid assembly can realize a savings in labor as a result of the reduced parts handling and associated wire bonds. The possibility of the use of automated system manufacturing techniques leads to greater reliability as the human factor is partly eliminated. Attention is given to reliability predictions, cost considerations, and a product comparison study.

Validity and reliability of a low-cost digital dynamometer for measuring isometric strength of lower limb.

Science.gov (United States)

Romero-Franco, Natalia; Jiménez-Reyes, Pedro; Montaño-Munuera, Juan A

2017-11-01

Lower limb isometric strength is a key parameter to monitor the training process or recognise muscle weakness and injury risk. However, valid and reliable methods to evaluate it often require high-cost tools. The aim of this study was to analyse the concurrent validity and reliability of a low-cost digital dynamometer for measuring isometric strength in lower limb. Eleven physically active and healthy participants performed maximal isometric strength for: flexion and extension of ankle, flexion and extension of knee, flexion, extension, adduction, abduction, internal and external rotation of hip. Data obtained by the digital dynamometer were compared with the isokinetic dynamometer to examine its concurrent validity. Data obtained by the digital dynamometer from 2 different evaluators and 2 different sessions were compared to examine its inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. Intra-class correlation (ICC) for validity was excellent in every movement (ICC > 0.9). Intra and inter-tester reliability was excellent for all the movements assessed (ICC > 0.75). The low-cost digital dynamometer demonstrated strong concurrent validity and excellent intra and inter-tester reliability for assessing isometric strength in the main lower limb movements.

Optimal number of tests to achieve and validate product reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, Hussam; Chateauneuf, Alaa

2014-01-01

The reliability validation of engineering products and systems is mandatory for choosing the best cost-effective design among a series of alternatives. Decisions at early design stages have a large effect on the overall life cycle performance and cost of products. In this paper, an optimization-based formulation is proposed by coupling the costs of product design and validation testing, in order to ensure the product reliability with the minimum number of tests. This formulation addresses the question about the number of tests to be specified through reliability demonstration necessary to validate the product under appropriate confidence level. The proposed formulation takes into account the product cost, the failure cost and the testing cost. The optimization problem can be considered as a decision making system according to the hierarchy of structural reliability measures. The numerical examples show the interest of coupling design and testing parameters. - Highlights: • Coupled formulation for design and testing costs, with lifetime degradation. • Cost-effective testing optimization to achieve reliability target. • Solution procedure for nested aleatoric and epistemic variable spaces

Guide for monitoring effectiveness of utility Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Midgett, W.D.; Wilson, J.F.; Krochmal, D.F.; Owsenek, L.W.

1991-02-01

Reliability centered maintenance (RCM) programs help utilities optimize preventive maintenance efforts while improving plant safety and economy through increased dependability of plant components. The project team developed this guide and accompanying methodology based on status updates from the Ginna and San Onofre demonstration projects. These updates addressed areas ranging from system selection to the effectiveness of RCM program implementation. In addition, the team incorporated information from a 12-utility survey soliciting opinions on the need for a methodology to monitor RCM cost-effectiveness. An analysis of the 12-utility survey showed that no techniques had been developed to measure RCM program cost-effectiveness. Thus, this guide addresses two key areas: Pros and cons of various monitoring techniques available to assess the overall effectiveness of RCM and a methodology for specifically evaluating the cost-effectiveness of RCM programs. 1 fig

A practical approach for calculating reliable cost estimates from observational data: application to cost analyses in maternal and child health.

Science.gov (United States)

Salemi, Jason L; Comins, Meg M; Chandler, Kristen; Mogos, Mulubrhan F; Salihu, Hamisu M

2013-08-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) and cost-effectiveness analysis are valuable tools for informing health policy and clinical care decisions. Despite the increased availability of rich observational databases with economic measures, few researchers have the skills needed to conduct valid and reliable cost analyses for CER. The objectives of this paper are to (i) describe a practical approach for calculating cost estimates from hospital charges in discharge data using publicly available hospital cost reports, and (ii) assess the impact of using different methods for cost estimation in maternal and child health (MCH) studies by conducting economic analyses on gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity. In Florida, we have constructed a clinically enhanced, longitudinal, encounter-level MCH database covering over 2.3 million infants (and their mothers) born alive from 1998 to 2009. Using this as a template, we describe a detailed methodology to use publicly available data to calculate hospital-wide and department-specific cost-to-charge ratios (CCRs), link them to the master database, and convert reported hospital charges to refined cost estimates. We then conduct an economic analysis as a case study on women by GDM and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) status to compare the impact of using different methods on cost estimation. Over 60 % of inpatient charges for birth hospitalizations came from the nursery/labor/delivery units, which have very different cost-to-charge markups (CCR = 0.70) than the commonly substituted hospital average (CCR = 0.29). Using estimated mean, per-person maternal hospitalization costs for women with GDM as an example, unadjusted charges ($US14,696) grossly overestimated actual cost, compared with hospital-wide ($US3,498) and department-level ($US4,986) CCR adjustments. However, the refined cost estimation method, although more accurate, did not alter our conclusions that infant/maternal hospitalization costs

Integrated reliability condition monitoring and maintenance of equipment

CERN Document Server

Osarenren, John

2015-01-01

Consider a Viable and Cost-Effective Platform for the Industries of the Future (IOF) Benefit from improved safety, performance, and product deliveries to your customers. Achieve a higher rate of equipment availability, performance, product quality, and reliability. Integrated Reliability: Condition Monitoring and Maintenance of Equipment incorporates reliable engineering and mathematical modeling to help you move toward sustainable development in reliability condition monitoring and maintenance. This text introduces a cost-effective integrated reliability growth monitor, integrated reliability degradation monitor, technological inheritance coefficient sensors, and a maintenance tool that supplies real-time information for predicting and preventing potential failures of manufacturing processes and equipment. The author highlights five key elements that are essential to any improvement program: improving overall equipment and part effectiveness, quality, and reliability; improving process performance with maint...

TFTR CAMAC power supplies reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camp, R.A.; Bergin, W.

1989-01-01

Since the expected life of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) has been extended into the early 1990's, the issues of equipment wear-out, when to refurbish/replace, and the costs associated with these decisions, must be faced. The management of the maintenance of the TFTR Central Instrumentation, Control and Data Acquisition System (CICADA) power supplies within the CAMAC network is a case study of a set of systems to monitor repairable systems reliability, costs, and results of action. The CAMAC network is composed of approximately 500 racks, each with its own power supply. By using a simple reliability estimator on a coarse time interval, in conjunction with determining the root cause of individual failures, a cost effective repair and maintenance program has been realized. This paper describes the estimator, some of the specific causes for recurring failures and their correction, and the subsequent effects on the reliability estimator. By extension of this program the authors can assess the continued viability of CAMAC power supplies into the future, predicting wear-out and developing cost effective refurbishment/replacement policies. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

Reliability of a patient survey assessing cost-related changes in health care use among high deductible health plan enrollees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Galbraith Alison A

2011-05-01

seeking, and delayed or foregone care were moderately reliable. Our results offer reassurance for researchers using survey information to study the effects cost sharing on health care utilization.

Optimizing inspection intervals—Reliability and availability in terms of a cost model: A case study on railway carriers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolde, Mike ten; Ghobbar, Adel A.

2013-01-01

This paper states the problem that railway carriers have with inspections and maintenance in its most cost optimal way. Often there is external pressure to improve reliability and availability and to reduce costs significantly. To overcome this problem this paper suggests a model that tries to find the optimal inspection interval. Not all maintenance companies have their inspection intervals that match with the actual reliability of a system anymore and the inspection intervals are not necessarily at a cost optimum. This research retrieves the actual failure and repair data and combines this together with the availability of a system to find the optimum inspection interval in terms of costs. The application of the optimization approach to a railway carrier maintenance company in the Netherlands is also presented. -- Highlights: ► New optimization technique for reliability and availability by minimizing costs. ► Adaptable to multiple types of repairs. ► Usable as a practical model. ► Applicable to the FMECA, RCM and ISO31000 risk management methods

Pursuing Photovoltaic Cost-Effectiveness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Yongheng; Koutroulis, Eftichios; Sangwongwanich, Ariya

2017-01-01

loading of the power devices. However, its feasibility is challenged by the associated energy losses. An increase of the inverter lifetime and a reduction of the energy yield can alter the cost of energy, demanding an optimization of the power limitation. Therefore, aiming at minimizing the Levelized Cost...... be flexibly performed. As an advanced control strategy, the Absolute Active Power Control (AAPC) can effectively solve the overloading issues by limiting the maximum possible PV power to a certain level (i.e., the power limitation), and also benefit the inverter reliability due to the reduction in the thermal...... performance in terms of LCOE and energy production can be obtained by enabling the AAPC strategy, compared to the conventional PV inverter operating only in the maximum power point tracking mode. In the presented case study, the minimum of the LCOE is achieved for the PV system when the power limit...

Balancing low cost with reliable operation in the rotordynamic design of the ALS Liquid Hydrogen Fuel Turbopump

Science.gov (United States)

Greenhill, L. M.

1990-01-01

The Air Force/NASA Advanced Launch System (ALS) Liquid Hydrogen Fuel Turbopump (FTP) has primary design goals of low cost and high reliability, with performance and weight having less importance. This approach is atypical compared with other rocket engine turbopump design efforts, such as on the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), which emphasized high performance and low weight. Similar to the SSME turbopumps, the ALS FTP operates supercritically, which implies that stability and bearing loads strongly influence the design. In addition, the use of low cost/high reliability features in the ALS FTP such as hydrostatic bearings, relaxed seal clearances, and unshrouded turbine blades also have a negative influence on rotordynamics. This paper discusses the analysis conducted to achieve a balance between low cost and acceptable rotordynamic behavior, to ensure that the ALS FTP will operate reliably without subsynchronous instabilities or excessive bearing loads.

On-line determination of operating limits incorporating constraint costs and reliability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meisingset, M.; Lovas, G. G.

1997-01-01

Problems regarding power system operation following deregulation were discussed. The problems arise as a result of the increased power flow pattern created by deregulation and competitive power markets, resulting in power in excess of N-1, (the capacity of transmission lines available), which in turn creates bottlenecks. In a situation like this, constraint costs and security costs (i.e. the cost of supply interruptions) are incurred as the direct result of the deterministic criteria used in reliability assessment. This paper describes an on-line probabilistic method to determine operating limits based on a trade-off between constraint costs and security costs. The probability of the contingencies depend on the existing weather conditions, which therefore has significant impact on the calculated operating limit. In consequence, the proposed method allows power flow to exceed the N-1 limit during normal weather. Under adverse weather conditions the N-1 criteria should be maintained. 15 refs., 13 figs

Software reliability

CERN Document Server

Bendell, A

1986-01-01

Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

Reliability analysis of multicellular system architectures for low-cost satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Erlank, A. O.; Bridges, C. P.

2018-06-01

Multicellular system architectures are proposed as a solution to the problem of low reliability currently seen amongst small, low cost satellites. In a multicellular architecture, a set of independent k-out-of-n systems mimic the cells of a biological organism. In order to be beneficial, a multicellular architecture must provide more reliability per unit of overhead than traditional forms of redundancy. The overheads include power consumption, volume and mass. This paper describes the derivation of an analytical model for predicting a multicellular system's lifetime. The performance of such architectures is compared against that of several common forms of redundancy and proven to be beneficial under certain circumstances. In addition, the problem of peripheral interfaces and cross-strapping is investigated using a purpose-developed, multicellular simulation environment. Finally, two case studies are presented based on a prototype cell implementation, which demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed architecture.

Reliability and Characterization of High Voltage Power Capacitors

Science.gov (United States)

2014-03-01

in a Faraday cage to minimize external noise. In addition, electron microscopy could also be performed to identify the change in trap concentration...military bases in the United States. Energy product reliability affects the sustainability and cost- effectiveness of these systems, which must be tested...Energy product reliability affects the sustainability and cost- effectiveness of these systems, which must be tested by outside entities to ensure

Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams

Science.gov (United States)

Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey; Dolan, John; Stancliff, Stephen

2010-01-01

A mission reliability estimation method has been designed to translate mission requirements into choices of robot modules in order to configure a multi-robot team to have high reliability at minimal cost. In order to build cost-effective robot teams for long-term missions, one must be able to compare alternative design paradigms in a principled way by comparing the reliability of different robot models and robot team configurations. Core modules have been created including: a probabilistic module with reliability-cost characteristics, a method for combining the characteristics of multiple modules to determine an overall reliability-cost characteristic, and a method for the generation of legitimate module combinations based on mission specifications and the selection of the best of the resulting combinations from a cost-reliability standpoint. The developed methodology can be used to predict the probability of a mission being completed, given information about the components used to build the robots, as well as information about the mission tasks. In the research for this innovation, sample robot missions were examined and compared to the performance of robot teams with different numbers of robots and different numbers of spare components. Data that a mission designer would need was factored in, such as whether it would be better to have a spare robot versus an equivalent number of spare parts, or if mission cost can be reduced while maintaining reliability using spares. This analytical model was applied to an example robot mission, examining the cost-reliability tradeoffs among different team configurations. Particularly scrutinized were teams using either redundancy (spare robots) or repairability (spare components). Using conservative estimates of the cost-reliability relationship, results show that it is possible to significantly reduce the cost of a robotic mission by using cheaper, lower-reliability components and providing spares. This suggests that the

Advancements in valve technology and industry lessons lead to improved plant reliability and cost savings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, V.; Kalsi, M.S.

2005-01-01

Plant reliability and safety hinges on the proper functioning of several valves. Recent advancements in valve technology have resulted in new analytical and test methods for evaluating and improving valve and actuator reliability. This is especially significant in critical service applications in which the economic impact of a valve failure on production, outage schedules and consequential damages far surpasses the initial equipment purchase price. This paper presents an overview of recent advances in valve technology driven by reliability concerns and cost savings objectives without comprising safety in the Nuclear Power Industry. This overview is based on over 27 years of experience in supporting US and International nuclear power utilities, and contributing to EPRI, and NSSS Owners' Groups in developing generic models/methodologies to address industry wide issues; performing design basis reviews; and implementing plant-wide valve reliability improvement programs. Various analytical prediction software and hardware solutions and training seminars are now available to implement valve programs covering power plants' lifecycle from the construction phase through life extension and power up rate. These tools and methodologies can enhance valve-engineering activities including the selection, sizing, proper application, condition monitoring, failure analysis, and condition based maintenance optimization with a focus on potential bad actors. This paper offers two such examples, the Kalsi Valve and Actuator Program (KVAP) and Check Valve Analysis and Prioritization (CVAP) [1-3, 8, 9, 11-13]. The advanced, validated torque prediction models incorporated into KVAP software for AOVs and MOVs have improved reliability of margin predictions and enabled cost savings through elimination of unwarranted equipment modifications. CVAP models provides a basis to prioritize the population of valves recommended for preventive maintenance, inspection and/or modification, allowing

Modeling the reliability and maintenance costs of wind turbines using Weibull analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vachon, W.A. [W.A. Vachon & Associates, Inc., Manchester, MA (United States)

1996-12-31

A general description is provided of the basic mathematics and use of Weibull statistical models for modeling component failures and maintenance costs as a function of time. The applicability of the model to wind turbine components and subsystems is discussed with illustrative examples of typical component reliabilities drawn from actual field experiences. Example results indicate the dominant role of key subsystems based on a combination of their failure frequency and repair/replacement costs. The value of the model is discussed as a means of defining (1) maintenance practices, (2) areas in which to focus product improvements, (3) spare parts inventory, and (4) long-term trends in maintenance costs as an important element in project cash flow projections used by developers, investors, and lenders. 6 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.

On the Path to SunShot. The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodhouse, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jones-Albertus, Rebecca [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Feldman, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fu, Ran [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Horowitz, Kelsey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chung, Donald [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jordan, Dirk [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-05-01

This report examines the remaining challenges to achieving the competitive photovoltaic (PV) costs and large-scale deployment envisioned under the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Solar-energy cost reductions can be realized through lower PV module and balance-of-system (BOS) costs as well as improved system efficiency and reliability. Numerous combinations of PV improvements could help achieve the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) goals because of the tradeoffs among key metrics like module price, efficiency, and degradation rate as well as system price and lifetime. Using LCOE modeling based on bottom-up cost analysis, two specific pathways are mapped to exemplify the many possible approaches to module cost reductions of 29%-38% between 2015 and 2020. BOS hardware and soft cost reductions, ranging from 54%-77% of total cost reductions, are also modeled. The residential sector's high supply-chain costs, labor requirements, and customer-acquisition costs give it the greatest BOS cost-reduction opportunities, followed by the commercial sector, although opportunities are available to the utility-scale sector as well. Finally, a future scenario is considered in which very high PV penetration requires additional costs to facilitate grid integration and increased power-system flexibility--which might necessitate even lower solar LCOEs. The analysis of a pathway to 3-5 cents/kWh PV systems underscores the importance of combining robust improvements in PV module and BOS costs as well as PV system efficiency and reliability if such aggressive long-term targets are to be achieved.

Controlling Healthcare Costs: Just Cost Effectiveness or "Just" Cost Effectiveness?

Science.gov (United States)

Fleck, Leonard M

2018-04-01

Meeting healthcare needs is a matter of social justice. Healthcare needs are virtually limitless; however, resources, such as money, for meeting those needs, are limited. How then should we (just and caring citizens and policymakers in such a society) decide which needs must be met as a matter of justice with those limited resources? One reasonable response would be that we should use cost effectiveness as our primary criterion for making those choices. This article argues instead that cost-effectiveness considerations must be constrained by considerations of healthcare justice. The goal of this article will be to provide a preliminary account of how we might distinguish just from unjust or insufficiently just applications of cost-effectiveness analysis to some healthcare rationing problems; specifically, problems related to extraordinarily expensive targeted cancer therapies. Unconstrained compassionate appeals for resources for the medically least well-off cancer patients will be neither just nor cost effective.

A new reliability allocation weight for reducing the occurrence of severe failure effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kyungmee O.; Yang, Yoonjung; Zuo, Ming J.

2013-01-01

A reliability allocation weight is used during the early design stage of a system to apportion the system reliability requirement to its individual subsystems. Since some failures have serious effects on public safety, cost and environmental issues especially in a mission critical system, the failure effect must be considered as one of the important factors in determining the allocation weight. Previously, the risk priority number or the criticality number was used to consider the failure effect in the allocation weight. In this paper, we identify the limitations of the previous approach and propose a new allocation weight based on the subsystem failure severity and its relative frequency. An example is given to illustrate that the proposed method is more effective than the previous method for reducing the occurrence of the unacceptable failure effects in a newly designed system

Reliability Worth Analysis of Distribution Systems Using Cascade Correlation Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heidari, Alireza; Agelidis, Vassilios; Pou, Josep

2018-01-01

Reliability worth analysis is of great importance in the area of distribution network planning and operation. The reliability worth's precision can be affected greatly by the customer interruption cost model used. The choice of the cost models can change system and load point reliability indices....... In this study, a cascade correlation neural network is adopted to further develop two cost models comprising a probabilistic distribution model and an average or aggregate model. A contingency-based analytical technique is adopted to conduct the reliability worth analysis. Furthermore, the possible effects...

NDE performance demonstration in the US nuclear power industry - applications, costs, lessons learned, and connection to NDE reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ammirato, F.

1997-01-01

Periodic inservice inspection (ISI) of nuclear power plant components is performed in the United States to satisfy legal commitments and to provide plant owners with reliable information for managing degradation. Performance demonstration provides credible evidence that ISI will fulfill its objectives. This paper examines the technical requirements for inspection and discusses how these technical needs are used to develop effective performance demonstration applications. NDE reliability is discussed with particular reference to its role in structural integrity assessments and its connection with performance demonstration. It is shown that the role of NDE reliability can range from very small to critical depending on the particular application and must be considered carefully in design of inspection techniques and performance demonstration programs used to qualify the inspection. Finally, the costs, benefits, and problems associated with performance demonstration are reviewed along with lessons learned from more than 15 years of performance demonstration experience in the US. (orig.)

Costs and cost-effectiveness of periviable care.

Science.gov (United States)

Caughey, Aaron B; Burchfield, David J

2014-02-01

With increasing concerns regarding rapidly expanding healthcare costs, cost-effectiveness analysis allows assessment of whether marginal gains from new technology are worth the increased costs. Particular methodologic issues related to cost and cost-effectiveness analysis in the area of neonatal and periviable care include how costs are estimated, such as the use of charges and whether long-term costs are included; the challenges of measuring utilities; and whether to use a maternal, neonatal, or dual perspective in such analyses. A number of studies over the past three decades have examined the costs and the cost-effectiveness of neonatal and periviable care. Broadly, while neonatal care is costly, it is also cost effective as it produces both life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). However, as the gestational age of the neonate decreases, the costs increase and the cost-effectiveness threshold is harder to achieve. In the periviable range of gestational age (22-24 weeks of gestation), whether the care is cost effective is questionable and is dependent on the perspective. Understanding the methodology and salient issues of cost-effectiveness analysis is critical for researchers, editors, and clinicians to accurately interpret results of the growing body of cost-effectiveness studies related to the care of periviable pregnancies and neonates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A parametric cost model for estimating operating and support costs of US Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships

OpenAIRE

Brandt, James M.

1999-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost mo...

Review of Reliability Assessment of Westinghouse SSPS Using SPC by WEC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, H. T.; Chung, H. Y.

2007-01-01

Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has accomplished the reliability assessment of Westinghouse Solid State Protection System (SSPS) in KORI no. 2, 3, 4, and YGN no. 1, 2. In their studies, it is reported that creating a cost-effective plan for improving the reliability of the SSPS and at KORI no. 2, 3 and 4, and YGN no. 1, 2 should be needed while reducing their maintenance cost. In this paper, we reviewed the reliability assessment of Westinghouse SSPS analyzed in two performance standards, availability, and the maintenance expense using Statistic Process Control (SPC). As a result, it is concluded all plants have several failures reported but no effect on the system's availability, and the maintenance expense analysis did not reduce the current maintenance expense by 30%. Therefore, overall review for the reliability assessment is that a new strategy for cost-effective plan and/or upgrade approach for improving the reliability of the aging Westinghouse SSPS should be needed

Design for Reliability in Renewable Energy Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blaabjerg, Frede; Zhou, Dao; Sangwongwanich, Ariya

2017-01-01

Power electronics are widely used in renewable energy systems to achieve lower cost of energy, higher efficiency and high power density. At the same time, the high reliability of the power electronics products is demanded, in order to reduce the failure rates and ensure cost-effective operation...... of the renewable energy systems. This paper thus describes the basic concepts used in reliability engineering, and presents the status and future trends of Design for Reliability (DfR) in power electronics, which is currently undergoing a paradigm shift to a physics-of-failure approach. Two case studies of a 2 MW...

Reliable, Low-Cost, Low-Weight, Non-Hermetic Coating for MCM Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Eric W.; Licari, James J.

2000-01-01

Through an Air Force Research Laboratory sponsored STM program, reliable, low-cost, low-weight, non-hermetic coatings for multi-chip-module(MCK applications were developed. Using the combination of Sandia Laboratory ATC-01 test chips, AvanTeco's moisture sensor chips(MSC's), and silicon slices, we have shown that organic and organic/inorganic overcoatings are reliable and practical non-hermetic moisture and oxidation barriers. The use of the MSC and unpassivated ATC-01 test chips provided rapid test results and comparison of moisture barrier quality of the overcoatings. The organic coatings studied were Parylene and Cyclotene. The inorganic coatings were Al2O3 and SiO2. The choice of coating(s) is dependent on the environment that the device(s) will be exposed to. We have defined four(4) classes of environments: Class I(moderate temperature/moderate humidity). Class H(high temperature/moderate humidity). Class III(moderate temperature/high humidity). Class IV(high temperature/high humidity). By subjecting the components to adhesion, FTIR, temperature-humidity(TH), pressure cooker(PCT), and electrical tests, we have determined that it is possible to reduce failures 50-70% for organic/inorganic coated components compared to organic coated components. All materials and equipment used are readily available commercially or are standard in most semiconductor fabrication lines. It is estimated that production cost for the developed technology would range from $1-10/module, compared to $20-200 for hermetically sealed packages.

Preventive maintenance and reliability-centered maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, J.G.

1989-01-01

In the recent past, the primary function of the preventive maintenance program at a nuclear power plant was to maintain the operability and reliability of the plant. Reducing overall maintenance costs by performing effective preventive maintenance, instead of more costly and disruptive corrective maintenance, instead of more costly and disruptive corrective maintenance, was a secondary consideration. In today's operating environment, the preventive maintenance program must meet the test of cost-effectiveness as well as many new standards for performance that are being required by rate regulators. The preventive maintenance program must be able to withstand the challenge of independent audit to a new standard of technical adequacy and compliance with recommendations from component vendors. In this new environment, the standard that is being applied at the San Onofre nuclear generating station (SONGS) is that the preventive maintenance program must meet the test of cost-effectiveness, improve equipment performance, support increased plant availability, and (a) literally implement the recommendations of the vendor, (b) provide other compensation for the vendor recommendation, or (c) provide technical justification for the deviation. The subject of this paper is the way that reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) is helping SONGS meet these challenges

The value of service reliability

OpenAIRE

Benezech , Vincent; Coulombel , Nicolas

2013-01-01

International audience; This paper studies the impact of service frequency and reliability on the choice of departure time and the travel cost of transit users. When the user has (α, β, γ) scheduling preferences, we show that the optimal head start decreases with service reliability, as expected. It does not necessarily decrease with service frequency, however. We derive the value of service headway (VoSH) and the value of service reliability (VoSR), which measure the marginal effect on the e...

Age-dependent reliability model considering effects of maintenance and working conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, Sebastian; Sanchez, Ana; Serradell, Vicente

1999-01-01

Nowadays, there is some doubt about building new nuclear power plants (NPPs). Instead, there is a growing interest in analyzing the possibility to extend current NPP operation, where life management programs play an important role. The evolution of the NPP safety depends on the evolution of the reliability of its safety components, which, in turn, is a function of their age along the NPP operational life. In this paper, a new age-dependent reliability model is presented, which includes parameters related to surveillance and maintenance effectiveness and working conditions of the equipment, both environmental and operational. This model may be used to support NPP life management and life extension programs, by improving or optimizing surveillance and maintenance tasks using risk and cost models based on such an age-dependent reliability model. The results of the sensitivity study in the example application show that the selection of the most appropriate maintenance strategy would directly depend on the previous parameters. Then, very important differences are expected to appear under certain circumstances, particularly, in comparison with other models that do not consider maintenance effectiveness and working conditions simultaneously

Can a Costly Intervention Be Cost-effective?

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, E. Michael; Jones, Damon

2009-01-01

Objectives To examine the cost-effectiveness of the Fast Track intervention, a multi-year, multi-component intervention designed to reduce violence among at-risk children. A previous report documented the favorable effect of intervention on the highest-risk group of ninth-graders diagnosed with conduct disorder, as well as self-reported delinquency. The current report addressed the cost-effectiveness of the intervention for these measures of program impact. Design Costs of the intervention were estimated using program budgets. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were computed to determine the cost per unit of improvement in the 3 outcomes measured in the 10th year of the study. Results Examination of the total sample showed that the intervention was not cost-effective at likely levels of policymakers' willingness to pay for the key outcomes. Subsequent analysis of those most at risk, however, showed that the intervention likely was cost-effective given specified willingness-to-pay criteria. Conclusions Results indicate that the intervention is cost-effective for the children at highest risk. From a policy standpoint, this finding is encouraging because such children are likely to generate higher costs for society over their lifetimes. However, substantial barriers to cost-effectiveness remain, such as the ability to effectively identify and recruit such higher-risk children in future implementations. PMID:17088509

Reliability engineering for nuclear and other high technology systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakner, A.A.; Anderson, R.T.

1985-01-01

This book is written for the reliability instructor, program manager, system engineer, design engineer, reliability engineer, nuclear regulator, probability risk assessment (PRA) analyst, general manager and others who are involved in system hardware acquisition, design and operation and are concerned with plant safety and operational cost-effectiveness. It provides criteria, guidelines and comprehensive engineering data affecting reliability; it covers the key aspects of system reliability as it relates to conceptual planning, cost tradeoff decisions, specification, contractor selection, design, test and plant acceptance and operation. It treats reliability as an integrated methodology, explicitly describing life cycle management techniques as well as the basic elements of a total hardware development program, including: reliability parameters and design improvement attributes, reliability testing, reliability engineering and control. It describes how these elements can be defined during procurement, and implemented during design and development to yield reliable equipment. (author)

Optimum capacity determination of stand-alone hybrid generation system considering cost and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Hung-Cheng

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► This paper presents a methodology for the installation capacity optimization. ► Hybrid generation system is optimized by application of adaptive genetic algorithm. ► A cost investigation is made under various conditions and component characteristics. ► The optimization scheme is validated to meet the annual power load demand. -- Abstract: The aim of this work is to present an optimization methodology for the installation capacity of a stand-alone hybrid generation system, taking into consideration the cost and reliability. Firstly, on the basis of derived steady state models of a wind generator (WG), a photovoltaic array (PV), a battery and an inverter, the hybrid generation system is modeled for the purpose of capacity optimization. Secondly, the power system is analyzed for determining both the system structure and the operation control strategy. Thirdly, according to hourly weather database of wind speed, temperature and solar irradiation, annual power generation capacity is estimated for the system match design in order that an annual power load demand can be met. The capacity determination of a hybrid generation system becomes complicated as a result of the uncertainty in the renewable energy together with load demand and the nonlinearity of system components. Aimed at the power system reliability and the cost minimization, the capacity of a hybrid generation system is optimized by application of an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) to individual power generation units. A total cost investigation is made under various conditions, such as wind generator power curves, battery discharge depth and the loss of load probability (LOLP). At the end of this work, the capacity of a hybrid generation system is optimized at two installation sites, namely the offshore Orchid Island and Wuchi in Taiwan. The optimization scheme is validated to optimize power capacities of a photovoltaic array, a battery and a wind turbine generator with a relative

Equipment Reliability Program in NPP Krsko

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skaler, F.; Djetelic, N.

2006-01-01

Operation that is safe, reliable, effective and acceptable to public is the common message in a mission statement of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To fulfill these goals, nuclear industry, among other areas, has to focus on: 1 Human Performance (HU) and 2 Equipment Reliability (EQ). The performance objective of HU is as follows: The behaviors of all personnel result in safe and reliable station operation. While unwanted human behaviors in operations mostly result directly in the event, the behavior flaws either in the area of maintenance or engineering usually cause decreased equipment reliability. Unsatisfied Human performance leads even the best designed power plants into significant operating events, which can be found as well-known examples in nuclear industry. Equipment reliability is today recognized as the key to success. While the human performance at most NPPs has been improving since the start of WANO / INPO / IAEA evaluations, the open energy market has forced the nuclear plants to reduce production costs and operate more reliably and effectively. The balance between these two (opposite) goals has made equipment reliability even more important for safe, reliable and efficient production. Insisting on on-line operation by ignoring some principles of safety could nowadays in a well-developed safety culture and human performance environment exceed the cost of electricity losses. In last decade the leading USA nuclear companies put a lot of effort to improve equipment reliability primarily based on INPO Equipment Reliability Program AP-913 at their NPP stations. The Equipment Reliability Program is the key program not only for safe and reliable operation, but also for the Life Cycle Management and Aging Management on the way to the nuclear power plant life extension. The purpose of Equipment Reliability process is to identify, organize, integrate and coordinate equipment reliability activities (preventive and predictive maintenance, maintenance

Cost analysis of the Hemodialysis Reliable Outflow (HeRO) Graft compared to the tunneled dialysis catheter.

Science.gov (United States)

Al Shakarchi, Julien; Inston, Nicholas; Jones, Robert G; Maclaine, Grant; Hollinworth, David

2016-04-01

In end-stage renal disease patients with central venous obstruction, who have limited vascular access options, the Hemodialysis Reliable Outflow (HeRO) Graft is a new alternative with a lower incidence of complications and longer effective device life compared to tunneled dialysis catheters (TDCs). We undertook an economic analysis of introducing the HeRO Graft in the UK. A 1-year cost-consequence decision analytic model was developed comparing management with the HeRO Graft to TDCs from the perspective of the National Health Service in England. The model comprises four 3-month cycles during which the vascular access option either remains functional for hemodialysis or fails, patients can experience access-related infection and device thrombosis, and they can also accrue associated costs. Clinical input data were sourced from published studies and unit cost data from National Health Service 2014-15 Reference Costs. In the base case, a 100-patient cohort managed with the HeRO Graft experienced 6 fewer failed devices, 53 fewer access-related infections, and 67 fewer device thromboses compared to patients managed with TDCs. Although the initial device and placement costs for the HeRO Graft are greater than those for TDCs, savings from the lower incidence of device complications and longer effective device patency reduces these costs. Overall net annual costs are £2600 for each HeRO Graft-managed patient compared to TDC-managed patients. If the National Health Service were to reimburse hemodialysis at a uniform rate regardless of the type of vascular access, net 1-year savings of £1200 per patient are estimated for individuals managed with the HeRO Graft. The base case results showed a marginal net positive cost associated with vascular access with the HeRO Graft compared with TDCs for the incremental clinical benefit of reductions in patency failures, device-related thrombosis, and access-related infection events in a patient population with limited options for

Investment in new product reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murthy, D.N.P.; Rausand, M.; Virtanen, S.

2009-01-01

Product reliability is of great importance to both manufacturers and customers. Building reliability into a new product is costly, but the consequences of inadequate product reliability can be costlier. This implies that manufacturers need to decide on the optimal investment in new product reliability by achieving a suitable trade-off between the two costs. This paper develops a framework and proposes an approach to help manufacturers decide on the investment in new product reliability.

Application of reliability methods in Ontario Hydro

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeppesen, R.; Ravishankar, T.J.

1985-01-01

Ontario Hydro have established a reliability program in support of its substantial nuclear program. Application of the reliability program to achieve both production and safety goals is described. The value of such a reliability program is evident in the record of Ontario Hydro's operating nuclear stations. The factors which have contributed to the success of the reliability program are identified as line management's commitment to reliability; selective and judicious application of reliability methods; establishing performance goals and monitoring the in-service performance; and collection, distribution, review and utilization of performance information to facilitate cost-effective achievement of goals and improvements. (orig.)

A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibanez-Lopez, A.S.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Moratilla-Soria, B.Y.

2017-01-01

The liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide. The inception of new alternative technologies, smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging. Government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country's power generation mix, even in those countries with liberalized markets. This paper presents a System Dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical, economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies. The model has been used to simulate Spain's power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix. The main conclusions of the present paper are (i) the necessity of specific regulatory actions in Spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels, avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies, (ii) the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and (iii) the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario. - Highlights: • A System Dynamics model of Spain's power generation mix is proposed. • The overall policy impact on system costs, environment and reliability is assessed. • Current policies are not enough to keep adequate reliability levels. • Capacity payments are an adequate instrument for guaranteeing system reliability. • RES incentives do not solve reliability issues and entail greater system costs.

Reliability and Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines and Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

Wind turbines are in some countries contributing significantly the production of electricity and wave energy devices have the potential to be developed in a similarway. For both offshore wind turbines and wave energy devices reliability is a key issue since costs to operation and maintenance may...... be significant contributors to the Levelized Cost Of Energy and OM costs are highly dependent on the reliability of the components implying that it is important to focus on increasing the reliability as much as is economically reasonable. This paper describes basic aspects for reliability analysis of wind...... turbines and wave energy devices with special focus on structural components. The reliability assessment needs include the effects of the control system and possible faults due to failure of electrical/mechanical components and e.g. loss of grid connection. The target reliability level for wind turbine...

Reliable sagittal plane kinematic gait assessments are feasible using low-cost webcam technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Saner, Robert J; Washabaugh, Edward P; Krishnan, Chandramouli

2017-07-01

Three-dimensional (3-D) motion capture systems are commonly used for gait analysis because they provide reliable and accurate measurements. However, the downside of this approach is that it is expensive and requires technical expertise; thus making it less feasible in the clinic. To address this limitation, we recently developed and validated (using a high-precision walking robot) a low-cost, two-dimensional (2-D) real-time motion tracking approach using a simple webcam and LabVIEW Vision Assistant. The purpose of this study was to establish the repeatability and minimal detectable change values of hip and knee sagittal plane gait kinematics recorded using this system. Twenty-one healthy subjects underwent two kinematic assessments while walking on a treadmill at a range of gait velocities. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and minimal detectable change (MDC) values were calculated for commonly used hip and knee kinematic parameters to demonstrate the reliability of the system. Additionally, Bland-Altman plots were generated to examine the agreement between the measurements recorded on two different days. The system demonstrated good to excellent reliability (ICC>0.75) for all the gait parameters tested on this study. The MDC values were typically low (gait assessments using webcam technology can be reliably used for clinical and research purposes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technology success: Integration of power plant reliability and effective maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferguson, K.

2008-01-01

The nuclear power generation sector has a tradition of utilizing technology as a key attribute for advancement. Companies that own, manage, and operate nuclear power plants can be expected to continue to rely on technology as a vital element of success. Inherent with the operations of the nuclear power industry in many parts of the world is the close connection between efficiency of power plant operations and successful business survival. The relationship among power plant availability, reliability of systems and components, and viability of the enterprise is more evident than ever. Technology decisions need to be accomplished that reflect business strategies, work processes, as well as needs of stakeholders and authorities. Such rigor is needed to address overarching concerns such as power plant life extension and license renewal, new plant orders, outage management, plant safety, inventory management etc. Particular to power plant reliability, the prudent leveraging of technology as a key to future success is vital. A dominant concern is effective asset management as physical plant assets age. Many plants are in, or are entering in, a situation in which systems and component design life and margins are converging such that failure threats can come into play with increasing frequency. Wisely selected technologies can be vital to the identification of emerging threats to reliable performance of key plant features and initiating effective maintenance actions and investments that can sustain or enhance current reliability in a cost effective manner. This attention to detail is vital to investment in new plants as well This paper and presentation will address (1) specific technology success in place at power plants, including nuclear, that integrates attention to attaining high plant reliability and effective maintenance actions as well as (2) complimentary actions that maximize technology success. In addition, the range of benefits that accrue as a result of

Thermal Management and Reliability of Automotive Power Electronics and Electric Machines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narumanchi, Sreekant V [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bennion, Kevin S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cousineau, Justine E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); DeVoto, Douglas J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Feng, Xuhui [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kekelia, Bidzina [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kozak, Joseph P [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Major, Joshua [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Moreno, Gilberto [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Paret, Paul P [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tomerlin, Jeff J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-02-09

Low-cost, high-performance thermal management technologies are helping meet aggressive power density, specific power, cost, and reliability targets for power electronics and electric machines. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is working closely with numerous industry and research partners to help influence development of components that meet aggressive performance and cost targets through development and characterization of cooling technologies, and thermal characterization and improvements of passive stack materials and interfaces. Thermomechanical reliability and lifetime estimation models are important enablers for industry in cost-and time-effective design.

PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-12-01

The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

Cost-effective framework for basic surgical skills training.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Deng-Jin; Wen, Chan; Yang, Ai-Jun; Zhu, Zhi-Li; Lei, Yan; Lan, Yang-Jun; Huang, Qing-Yuan; Hou, Xiao-Yu

2013-06-01

The importance of basic surgical skills is entirely agreed among surgical educators. However, restricted by ethical issues, finance etc, the basic surgical skills training is increasingly challenged. Increasing cost gives an impetus to the development of cost-effective training models to meet the trainees' acquisition of basic surgical skills. In this situation, a cost-effective training framework was formed in our department and introduced here. Each five students were assigned to a 'training unit'. The training was implemented weekly for 18 weeks. The framework consisted of an early, a transitional, an integrative stage and a surgical skills competition. Corresponding training modules were selected and assembled scientifically at each stage. The modules comprised campus intranet databases, sponge benchtop, nonliving animal tissue, local dissection specimens and simulating reality operations. The training outcomes used direct observation of procedural skills as an assessment tool. The training data of 50 trainees who were randomly selected in each year from 2006 to 2011 year, were retrospectively analysed. An excellent and good rate of the surgical skills is from 82 to 88%, but there is no significant difference among 6 years (P > 0.05). The skills scores of the contestants are markedly higher than those of non-contestants (P < 0.05). The average training cost per trainee is about $21.85-34.08. The present training framework is reliable, feasible, repeatable and cost-effective. The skills competition can promote to improve the surgical skills level of trainees. © 2012 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

A standard for test reliability in group research.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Jules L

2013-03-01

Many authors adhere to the rule that test reliabilities should be at least .70 or .80 in group research. This article introduces a new standard according to which reliabilities can be evaluated. This standard is based on the costs or time of the experiment and of administering the test. For example, if test administration costs are 7 % of the total experimental costs, the efficient value of the reliability is .93. If the actual reliability of a test is equal to this efficient reliability, the test size maximizes the statistical power of the experiment, given the costs. As a standard in experimental research, it is proposed that the reliability of the dependent variable be close to the efficient reliability. Adhering to this standard will enhance the statistical power and reduce the costs of experiments.

Power electronics reliability analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

2009-12-01

This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik

Cost reductions for offshore wind turbines are a substantial requirement in order to make offshore wind energy more competitive compared to other energy supply methods. During the 20 – 25 years of wind turbines useful life, Operation & Maintenance costs are typically estimated to be a quarter...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied...... to one third of the total cost of energy. Reduction of Operation & Maintenance costs will result in significant cost savings and result in cheaper electricity production. Operation & Maintenance processes mainly involve actions related to replacements or repair. Identifying the right times when...

Accountability for enhanced reliability for ALWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanford, M.O.

1993-01-01

Advanced nuclear units must compete with alternative generating technologies for inclusion in a utility's future planning. Operating reliability, or capacity factor, and operating cost are important factors in this competition. The ALWR Utility Requirements Document has established targets for both ALWR Capacity Factors (87%) and O ampersand M costs (13--16 mils/KWh), but recognizes that these O ampersand M cost targets need to be lower. The recently published USCEA cost study estimates O ampersand M costs on the order of 6 mils/kw. Meeting, or better yet improving on, these targets is essential for nuclear to be competitive. A number of specific items have been included in the Utility Requirements Document to improve reliability based on experience with operating units. For the most part, these include either avoiding known problems, or simplifying the design. Vendor design organizations are generally complying with the URD and this is expected to produce an improved design both in terms of reliability and ease of operation and maintenance. As one embarks on First-of-a-Kind Engineering (FOAKE), however, it is useful to revisit the issue of responsibility for assuring that reliability improvements are embodied in the new plant designs. The vendor design team must ultimately assume this responsibility. While utility operating and maintenance experience is an essential input to an effective design, decisions on how best to design for this experience remain a designer function. This poses a dilemma for the designer in that such decisions seem to invariably require a trade-off between the capital cost of the product and the ultimate O ampersand M cost. Since traditionally only capital cost has had a direct measurable impact on the vendor, it has received the greater weight. A more appropriate balance must be struck in the future, however, for nuclear to be competitive. Utilities must demand a balance in the design of ALWRs which truly reflects the total cost of power

Cost and Ductility Effectiveness of Concrete Columns Strengthened with CFRP and SFRP Sheets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khaled Abdelrahman

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Recently, steel fibre reinforced polymers (SFRP sheets have been introduced for the repair and rehabilitation of concrete structures. Few researchers studied the behaviour of the concrete columns wrapped with SFRP sheets; however, several critical parameters such as the cost and ductility effectiveness of the SFRP wrapped concrete columns have been lightly addressed. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to study the cost and ductility effectiveness of SFRP wrapped concrete columns and compare the results with the conventionally used carbon FRP (CFRP wrapped concrete columns. In addition, an analytical procedure to predict the cost effectiveness of SFRP wrapped concrete columns is also suggested, from which, a parametric study was conducted. The parametric study investigated the effect of the concrete strength, the number of SFRP layers, and the size and slenderness effects on the cost effectiveness of the concrete columns wrapped with SFRP sheets. The results from the cost and ductility effectiveness study indicated that the SFRP wrapped concrete columns showed enhanced performance over the CFRP wrapped concrete columns. The suggested analytical procedure proved to be a reliable and accurate method to predict the cost effectiveness parameter of SFRP wrapped concrete columns. The parametric study showed the significant impact of the investigated parameters on the cost effectiveness of concrete columns wrapped with SFRP sheets.

Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar.

Science.gov (United States)

Clack, Christopher T M; Qvist, Staffan A; Apt, Jay; Bazilian, Morgan; Brandt, Adam R; Caldeira, Ken; Davis, Steven J; Diakov, Victor; Handschy, Mark A; Hines, Paul D H; Jaramillo, Paulina; Kammen, Daniel M; Long, Jane C S; Morgan, M Granger; Reed, Adam; Sivaram, Varun; Sweeney, James; Tynan, George R; Victor, David G; Weyant, John P; Whitacre, Jay F

2017-06-27

A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055", with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.

Implementing a Reliability Centered Maintenance Program at NASA's Kennedy Space Center

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Tuttle, Raymond

1998-01-01

.... A reliability centered maintenance (RCM) program seeks to offer equal or greater reliability at decreased cost by insuring only applicable, effective maintenance is performed and by in large part replacing time based maintenance...

Field reliability of electronic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elm, T.

1984-02-01

This report investigates, through several examples from the field, the reliability of electronic units in a broader sense. That is, it treats not just random parts failure, but also inadequate reliability design and (externally and internally) induced failures. The report is not meant to be merely an indication of the state of the art for the reliability prediction methods we know, but also as a contribution to the investigation of man-machine interplay in the operation and repair of electronic equipment. The report firmly links electronics reliability to safety and risk analyses approaches with a broader, system oriented view of reliability prediction and with postfailure stress analysis. It is intended to reveal, in a qualitative manner, the existence of symptom and cause patterns. It provides a background for further investigations to identify the detailed mechanisms of the faults and the remedical actions and precautions for achieving cost effective reliability. (author)

Reliability in automotive and mechanical engineering determination of component and system reliability

CERN Document Server

Bertsche, Bernd

2008-01-01

In the present contemporary climate of global competition in every branch of engineering and manufacture it has been shown from extensive customer surveys that above every other attribute, reliability stands as the most desired feature in a finished product. To survive this relentless fight for survival any organisation, which neglect the plea of attaining to excellence in reliability, will do so at a serious cost Reliability in Automotive and Mechanical Engineering draws together a wide spectrum of diverse and relevant applications and analyses on reliability engineering. This is distilled into this attractive and well documented volume and practising engineers are challenged with the formidable task of simultaneously improving reliability and reducing the costs and down-time due to maintenance. The volume brings together eleven chapters to highlight the importance of the interrelated reliability and maintenance disciplines. They represent the development trends and progress resulting in making this book ess...

Costs, health effects and cost-effectiveness of alcohol and tobacco control strategies in Estonia.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lai, T.; Habicht, J.; Reinap, M.; Chisholm, D.; Baltussen, R.M.P.M.

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the population-level costs, effects and cost-effectiveness of different alcohol and tobacco control strategies in Estonia. DESIGN: A WHO cost-effectiveness modelling framework was used to estimate the total costs and effects of interventions. Costs were assessed in Estonian

An alternative to the balance error scoring system: using a low-cost balance board to improve the validity/reliability of sports-related concussion balance testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Jasper O; Levy, Susan S; Seay, Seth W; Goble, Daniel J

2014-05-01

Recent guidelines advocate sports medicine professionals to use balance tests to assess sensorimotor status in the management of concussions. The present study sought to determine whether a low-cost balance board could provide a valid, reliable, and objective means of performing this balance testing. Criterion validity testing relative to a gold standard and 7 day test-retest reliability. University biomechanics laboratory. Thirty healthy young adults. Balance ability was assessed on 2 days separated by 1 week using (1) a gold standard measure (ie, scientific grade force plate), (2) a low-cost Nintendo Wii Balance Board (WBB), and (3) the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS). Validity of the WBB center of pressure path length and BESS scores were determined relative to the force plate data. Test-retest reliability was established based on intraclass correlation coefficients. Composite scores for the WBB had excellent validity (r = 0.99) and test-retest reliability (R = 0.88). Both the validity (r = 0.10-0.52) and test-retest reliability (r = 0.61-0.78) were lower for the BESS. These findings demonstrate that a low-cost balance board can provide improved balance testing accuracy/reliability compared with the BESS. This approach provides a potentially more valid/reliable, yet affordable, means of assessing sports-related concussion compared with current methods.

Program integration of predictive maintenance with reliability centered maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strong, D.K. Jr; Wray, D.M.

1990-01-01

This paper addresses improving the safety and reliability of power plants in a cost-effective manner by integrating the recently developed reliability centered maintenance techniques with the traditional predictive maintenance techniques of nuclear power plants. The topics of the paper include a description of reliability centered maintenance (RCM), enhancing RCM with predictive maintenance, predictive maintenance programs, condition monitoring techniques, performance test techniques, the mid-Atlantic Reliability Centered Maintenance Users Group, test guides and the benefits of shared guide development

Interactive Reliability-Based Optimal Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Siemaszko, A.

1994-01-01

Interactive design/optimization of large, complex structural systems is considered. The objective function is assumed to model the expected costs. The constraints are reliability-based and/or related to deterministic code requirements. Solution of this optimization problem is divided in four main...... tasks, namely finite element analyses, sensitivity analyses, reliability analyses and application of an optimization algorithm. In the paper it is shown how these four tasks can be linked effectively and how existing information on design variables, Lagrange multipliers and the Hessian matrix can...

A reliable, fast and low cost maximum power point tracker for photovoltaic applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Enrique, J.M.; Andujar, J.M.; Bohorquez, M.A. [Departamento de Ingenieria Electronica, de Sistemas Informaticos y Automatica, Universidad de Huelva (Spain)

2010-01-15

This work presents a new maximum power point tracker system for photovoltaic applications. The developed system is an analog version of the ''P and O-oriented'' algorithm. It maintains its main advantages: simplicity, reliability and easy practical implementation, and avoids its main disadvantages: inaccurateness and relatively slow response. Additionally, the developed system can be implemented in a practical way at a low cost, which means an added value. The system also shows an excellent behavior for very fast variables in incident radiation levels. (author)

Strength and Reliability of Wood for the Components of Low-cost Wind Turbines: Computational and Experimental Analysis and Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mishnaevsky, Leon; Freere, Peter; Sharma, Ranjan

2009-01-01

of experiments and computational investigations. Low cost testing machines have been designed, and employed for the systematic analysis of different sorts of Nepali wood, to be used for the wind turbine construction. At the same time, computational micromechanical models of deformation and strength of wood......This paper reports the latest results of the comprehensive program of experimental and computational analysis of strength and reliability of wooden parts of low cost wind turbines. The possibilities of prediction of strength and reliability of different types of wood are studied in the series...... are developed, which should provide the basis for microstructure-based correlating of observable and service properties of wood. Some correlations between microstructure, strength and service properties of wood have been established....

Cost Based Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for Systems of Accelerator Magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spencer, Cherrill M

2003-01-01

The proposed Next Linear Collider (NLC) has a proposed 85% overall availability goal, the availability specifications for all its 7200 magnets and their 6167 power supplies are 97.5% each. Thus all of the electromagnets and their power supplies must be highly reliable or quickly repairable. Improved reliability or repairability comes at a higher cost. We have developed a set of analysis procedures for magnet designers to use as they decide how much effort to exert, i.e. how much money to spend, to improve the reliability of a particular style of magnet. We show these procedures being applied to a standard SLAC electromagnet design in order to make it reliable enough to meet the NLC availability specs. First, empirical data from SLAC's accelerator failure database plus design experience are used to calculate MTBF for failure modes identified through a FMEA. Availability for one particular magnet can be calculated. Next, labor and material costs to repair magnet failures are used in a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the total cost of all failures over a 30-year lifetime. Opportunity costs are included. Engineers choose from amongst various designs by comparing lifecycle costs

Application of a truncated normal failure distribution in reliability testing

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, C., Jr.

1968-01-01

Statistical truncated normal distribution function is applied as a time-to-failure distribution function in equipment reliability estimations. Age-dependent characteristics of the truncated function provide a basis for formulating a system of high-reliability testing that effectively merges statistical, engineering, and cost considerations.

Multiobjective Reliable Cloud Storage with Its Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiyang Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Information abounds in all fields of the real life, which is often recorded as digital data in computer systems and treated as a kind of increasingly important resource. Its increasing volume growth causes great difficulties in both storage and analysis. The massive data storage in cloud environments has significant impacts on the quality of service (QoS of the systems, which is becoming an increasingly challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a multiobjective optimization model for the reliable data storage in clouds through considering both cost and reliability of the storage service simultaneously. In the proposed model, the total cost is analyzed to be composed of storage space occupation cost, data migration cost, and communication cost. According to the analysis of the storage process, the transmission reliability, equipment stability, and software reliability are taken into account in the storage reliability evaluation. To solve the proposed multiobjective model, a Constrained Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization (CMPSO algorithm is designed. At last, experiments are designed to validate the proposed model and its solution PSO algorithm. In the experiments, the proposed model is tested in cooperation with 3 storage strategies. Experimental results show that the proposed model is positive and effective. The experimental results also demonstrate that the proposed model can perform much better in alliance with proper file splitting methods.

An Investment Level Decision Method to Secure Long-term Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Bamba, Satoshi; Yabe, Kuniaki; Seki, Tomomichi; Shibaya, Tetsuji

The slowdown in power demand increase and facility replacement causes the aging and lower reliability in power facility. And the aging is followed by the rapid increase of repair and replacement when many facilities reach their lifetime in future. This paper describes a method to estimate the repair and replacement costs in future by applying the life-cycle cost model and renewal theory to the historical data. This paper also describes a method to decide the optimum investment plan, which replaces facilities in the order of cost-effectiveness by setting replacement priority formula, and the minimum investment level to keep the reliability. Estimation examples applied to substation facilities show that the reasonable and leveled future cash-out can keep the reliability by lowering the percentage of replacements caused by fatal failures.

Reliability and radiation effects in compound semiconductors

CERN Document Server

Johnston, Allan

2010-01-01

This book discusses reliability and radiation effects in compound semiconductors, which have evolved rapidly during the last 15 years. Johnston's perspective in the book focuses on high-reliability applications in space, but his discussion of reliability is applicable to high reliability terrestrial applications as well. The book is important because there are new reliability mechanisms present in compound semiconductors that have produced a great deal of confusion. They are complex, and appear to be major stumbling blocks in the application of these types of devices. Many of the reliability problems that were prominent research topics five to ten years ago have been solved, and the reliability of many of these devices has been improved to the level where they can be used for ten years or more with low failure rates. There is also considerable confusion about the way that space radiation affects compound semiconductors. Some optoelectronic devices are so sensitive to damage in space that they are very difficu...

Optimal design of water supply networks for enhancing seismic reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Do Guen; Kang, Doosun; Kim, Joong Hoon

2016-01-01

The goal of the present study is to construct a reliability evaluation model of a water supply system taking seismic hazards and present techniques to enhance hydraulic reliability of the design into consideration. To maximize seismic reliability with limited budgets, an optimal design model is developed using an optimization technique called harmony search (HS). The model is applied to actual water supply systems to determine pipe diameters that can maximize seismic reliability. The reliabilities between the optimal design and existing designs were compared and analyzed. The optimal design would both enhance reliability by approximately 8.9% and have a construction cost of approximately 1.3% less than current pipe construction cost. In addition, the reinforcement of the durability of individual pipes without considering the system produced ineffective results in terms of both cost and reliability. Therefore, to increase the supply ability of the entire system, optimized pipe diameter combinations should be derived. Systems in which normal status hydraulic stability and abnormal status available demand could be maximally secured if configured through the optimal design. - Highlights: • We construct a seismic reliability evaluation model of water supply system. • We present technique to enhance hydraulic reliability in the aspect of design. • Harmony search algorithm is applied in optimal designs process. • The effects of the proposed optimal design are improved reliability about by 9%. • Optimized pipe diameter combinations should be derived indispensably.

Reliability Assessment Of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Reduction of cost of energy for wind turbines are very important in order to make wind energy competitive compared to other energy sources. Therefore the turbine components should be designed to have sufficient reliability but also not be too costly (and safe). This paper presents models...... for uncertainty modeling and reliability assessment of especially the structural components such as tower, blades, substructure and foundation. But since the function of a wind turbine is highly dependent on many electrical and mechanical components as well as a control system also reliability aspects...... of these components are discussed and it is described how there reliability influences the reliability of the structural components. Two illustrative examples are presented considering uncertainty modeling, reliability assessment and calibration of partial safety factors for structural wind turbine components exposed...

On reliability and maintenance modelling of ageing equipment in electric power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindquist, Tommie

2008-04-01

Maintenance optimisation is essential to achieve cost-efficiency, availability and reliability of supply in electric power systems. The process of maintenance optimisation requires information about the costs of preventive and corrective maintenance, as well as the costs of failures borne by both electricity suppliers and customers. To calculate expected costs, information is needed about equipment reliability characteristics and the way in which maintenance affects equipment reliability. The aim of this Ph.D. work has been to develop equipment reliability models taking the effect of maintenance into account. The research has focussed on the interrelated areas of condition estimation, reliability modelling and maintenance modelling, which have been investigated in a number of case studies. In the area of condition estimation two methods to quantitatively estimate the condition of disconnector contacts have been developed, which utilise results from infrared thermography inspections and contact resistance measurements. The accuracy of these methods were investigated in two case studies. Reliability models have been developed and implemented for SF6 circuit-breakers, disconnector contacts and XLPE cables in three separate case studies. These models were formulated using both empirical and physical modelling approaches. To improve confidence in such models a Bayesian statistical method incorporating information from the equipment design process was also developed. This method was illustrated in a case study of SF6 circuit-breaker operating rods. Methods for quantifying the effect of maintenance on equipment condition and reliability have been investigated in case studies on disconnector contacts and SF6 circuit-breakers. The input required by these methods are condition measurements and historical failure and maintenance data, respectively. This research has demonstrated that the effect of maintenance on power system equipment may be quantified using available data

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Plasmodium vivax Control.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Michael T; Yeung, Shunmay; Patouillard, Edith; Cibulskis, Richard

2016-12-28

The continued success of efforts to reduce the global malaria burden will require sustained funding for interventions specifically targeting Plasmodium vivax The optimal use of limited financial resources necessitates cost and cost-effectiveness analyses of strategies for diagnosing and treating P. vivax and vector control tools. Herein, we review the existing published evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions for controlling P. vivax, identifying nine studies focused on diagnosis and treatment and seven studies focused on vector control. Although many of the results from the much more extensive P. falciparum literature can be applied to P. vivax, it is not always possible to extrapolate results from P. falciparum-specific cost-effectiveness analyses. Notably, there is a need for additional studies to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of radical cure with primaquine for the prevention of P. vivax relapses with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase testing. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Reliability metrics extraction for power electronics converter stressed by thermal cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Ke; Choi, Uimin; Blaabjerg, Frede

2017-01-01

Due to the continuous demands for highly reliable and cost-effective power conversion, the quantified reliability performances of the power electronics converter are becoming emerging needs. The existing reliability modelling approaches for the power electronics converter mainly focuses on the pr...... performance of power electronics system. The final predicted results showed good accuracy with much more reliability information compared to the existing approaches, and the quantified reliability correlation to the mission profiles of converter is mathematically established....

Noninvasive Hemoglobin Monitoring: A Rapid, Reliable, and Cost-Effective Method Following Total Joint Replacement.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, J Ryan; Camp, Christopher L; Stitz, Amber; Young, Ernest Y; Abdel, Matthew P; Taunton, Michael J; Trousdale, Robert T

2016-03-02

Noninvasive hemoglobin (nHgb) monitoring was initially introduced in the intensive care setting as a means of rapidly assessing Hgb values without performing a blood draw. We conducted a prospective analysis to compare reliability, cost, and patient preference between nHgb monitoring and invasive Hgb (iHgb) monitoring performed via a traditional blood draw. We enrolled 100 consecutive patients undergoing primary or revision total hip or total knee arthroplasty. On postoperative day 1, nHgb and iHgb values were obtained within thirty minutes of one another. iHgb and nHgb values, cost, patient satisfaction, and the duration of time required to obtain each reading were recorded. The concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was utilized to evaluate the agreement of the two Hgb measurement methods. Paired t tests and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were utilized to compare mean Hgb values, time, and pain for all readings. The mean Hgb values did not differ significantly between the two measurement methods: the mean iHgb value (and standard deviation) was 11.3 ± 1.4 g/dL (range, 8.2 to 14.3 g/dL), and the mean nHgb value was 11.5 ± 1.8 g/dL (range, 7.0 to 16.0 g/dL) (p = 0.11). The CCC between the two Hgb methods was 0.69. One hundred percent of the patients with an nHgb value of ≥ 10.5 g/dL had an iHgb value of >8.0 g/dL. The mean time to obtain an Hgb value was 0.9 minute for the nHgb method and 51.1 minutes for the iHgb method (p measurement, resulting in a savings of $26 per Hgb assessment when the noninvasive method is used. Noninvasive Hgb monitoring was found to be more efficient, less expensive, and preferred by patients compared with iHgb monitoring. Providers could consider screening total joint arthroplasty patients with nHgb monitoring and only order iHgb measurement if the nHgb value is protocol had been applied to the first blood draw in our 100 patients, approximately $2000 would have been saved. Extrapolated to the U.S. total joint arthroplasty practice

Hawaii Electric System Reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loose, Verne William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2012-08-01

This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

Cost, cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness of integrated family planning and HIV services.

Science.gov (United States)

Shade, Starley B; Kevany, Sebastian; Onono, Maricianah; Ochieng, George; Steinfeld, Rachel L; Grossman, Daniel; Newmann, Sara J; Blat, Cinthia; Bukusi, Elizabeth A; Cohen, Craig R

2013-10-01

To evaluate costs, cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness of integration of family planning into HIV services. Integration of family planning services into HIV care and treatment clinics. A cluster-randomized trial. Twelve health facilities in Nyanza, Kenya were randomized to integrate family planning into HIV care and treatment; six health facilities were randomized to (nonintegrated) standard-of-care with separately delivered family planning and HIV services. We assessed costs, cost-efficiency (cost per additional use of more effective family planning), and cost-effectiveness (cost per pregnancy averted) associated with the first year of integration of family planning into HIV care. More effective family planning methods included oral and injectable contraceptives, subdermal implants, intrauterine device, and female and male sterilization. We collected cost data through interviews with study staff and review of financial records to determine costs of service integration. Integration of services was associated with an average marginal cost of $841 per site and $48 per female patient. Average overall and marginal costs of integration were associated with personnel costs [initial ($1003 vs. $872) and refresher ($498 vs. $330) training, mentoring ($1175 vs. $902) and supervision ($1694 vs. $1636)], with fewer resources required for other fixed ($18 vs. $0) and recurring expenses ($471 vs. $287). Integration was associated with a marginal cost of $65 for each additional use of more effective family planning and $1368 for each pregnancy averted. Integration of family planning and HIV services is feasible, inexpensive to implement, and cost-efficient in the Kenyan setting, and thus supports current Kenyan integration policy.

A methodological framework for assessing agreement between cost-effectiveness outcomes estimated using alternative sources of data on treatment costs and effects for trial-based economic evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Achana, Felix; Petrou, Stavros; Khan, Kamran; Gaye, Amadou; Modi, Neena

2018-01-01

A new methodological framework for assessing agreement between cost-effectiveness endpoints generated using alternative sources of data on treatment costs and effects for trial-based economic evaluations is proposed. The framework can be used to validate cost-effectiveness endpoints generated from routine data sources when comparable data is available directly from trial case report forms or from another source. We illustrate application of the framework using data from a recent trial-based economic evaluation of the probiotic Bifidobacterium breve strain BBG administered to babies less than 31 weeks of gestation. Cost-effectiveness endpoints are compared using two sources of information; trial case report forms and data extracted from the National Neonatal Research Database (NNRD), a clinical database created through collaborative efforts of UK neonatal services. Focusing on mean incremental net benefits at £30,000 per episode of sepsis averted, the study revealed no evidence of discrepancy between the data sources (two-sided p values >0.4), low probability estimates of miscoverage (ranging from 0.039 to 0.060) and concordance correlation coefficients greater than 0.86. We conclude that the NNRD could potentially serve as a reliable source of data for future trial-based economic evaluations of neonatal interventions. We also discuss the potential implications of increasing opportunity to utilize routinely available data for the conduct of trial-based economic evaluations.

Reliability of two social cognition tests: The combined stories test and the social knowledge test.

Science.gov (United States)

Thibaudeau, Élisabeth; Cellard, Caroline; Legendre, Maxime; Villeneuve, Karèle; Achim, Amélie M

2018-04-01

Deficits in social cognition are common in psychiatric disorders. Validated social cognition measures with good psychometric properties are necessary to assess and target social cognitive deficits. Two recent social cognition tests, the Combined Stories Test (COST) and the Social Knowledge Test (SKT), respectively assess theory of mind and social knowledge. Previous studies have shown good psychometric properties for these tests, but the test-retest reliability has never been documented. The aim of this study was to evaluate the test-retest reliability and the inter-rater reliability of the COST and the SKT. The COST and the SKT were administered twice to a group of forty-two healthy adults, with a delay of approximately four weeks between the assessments. Excellent test-retest reliability was observed for the COST, and a good test-retest reliability was observed for the SKT. There was no evidence of practice effect. Furthermore, an excellent inter-rater reliability was observed for both tests. This study shows a good reliability of the COST and the SKT that adds to the good validity previously reported for these two tests. These good psychometrics properties thus support that the COST and the SKT are adequate measures for the assessment of social cognition. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cost-effective and reliable design of a solar thermal power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aliabadi, A.A.; Wallace, J.S.

2009-01-01

A design study was conducted to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of solar thermal power generation in a 50 kWe power plant that could be used in a remote location. The system combines a solar collector-thermal storage system utilizing a heat transfer fluid and a simple Rankine cycle power generator utilizing R123 refrigerant. Evacuated tube solar collectors heat mineral oil and supply it to a thermal storage tank. A mineral oil to refrigerant heat exchanger generates superheated refrigerant vapor, which drives a radial turbogenerator. Supplemental natural gas firing maintains a constant thermal storage temperature irregardless of solar conditions enabling the system to produce a constant 50 kWe output. A simulation was carried out to predict the performance of the system in the hottest summer day and the coldest winter day for southern California solar conditions. A rigorous economic analysis was conducted. The system offers advantages over advanced solar thermal power plants by implementing simple fixed evacuated tube collectors, which are less prone to damage in harsh desert environment. Also, backed up by fossil fuel power generation, it is possible to obtain continued operation even during low insolation sky conditions and at night, a feature that stand-alone PV systems do not offer. (author)

Improving machinery reliability

CERN Document Server

Bloch, Heinz P

1998-01-01

This totally revised, updated and expanded edition provides proven techniques and procedures that extend machinery life, reduce maintenance costs, and achieve optimum machinery reliability. This essential text clearly describes the reliability improvement and failure avoidance steps practiced by best-of-class process plants in the U.S. and Europe.

Reliability training

Science.gov (United States)

Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

1992-01-01

Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

More reliable financing of future nuclear waste costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

A commission of inquiry was established by Government in 1993 to review the management of capital funds according to the existing Act of the Financing of Future Expenses for Spent Nuclear Fuel etc. The commission proposes that: The funds which have been paid to the Swedish state to finance the costs arising in connection with the handling and final disposal of spent nuclear fuel etc, from the year 1995, should be invested in accordance with guidelines which aim at attaining a higher return than is currently possible; That an independent government body, called the Nuclear Waste Fund, should be assigned the task of managing the funds, in accordance with these guidelines; That the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate should continue to examine and evaluate issues relating to the application of the funds and recommend the level of the fee to be paid; and That a system including additional measures for guaranteeing the availability of funds should be implemented from the year 1995, in order to improve the reliability of the financing system. Our proposal involves extensive amendments to the Financing Act. On the other hand, the basic stipulations concerning responsibilities under the Act on Nuclear Activities, are not affected. (Seven work documents produced by consulting firms are published in a separate volume; SOU 1994:108) 5 figs., 16 tabs

Proactive replica checking to assure reliability of data in cloud storage with minimum replication

Science.gov (United States)

Murarka, Damini; Maheswari, G. Uma

2017-11-01

The two major issues for cloud storage systems are data reliability and storage costs. For data reliability protection, multi-replica replication strategy which is used mostly in current clouds acquires huge storage consumption, leading to a large storage cost for applications within the loud specifically. This paper presents a cost-efficient data reliability mechanism named PRCR to cut back the cloud storage consumption. PRCR ensures data reliability of large cloud information with the replication that might conjointly function as a price effective benchmark for replication. The duplication shows that when resembled to the standard three-replica approach, PRCR will scale back to consume only a simple fraction of the cloud storage from one-third of the storage, thence considerably minimizing the cloud storage price.

The effect of non-financial risk information on the evaluation of implied cost of capitals

OpenAIRE

Norio Kitagawa; Hyonok Kim; Masatoshi Goto

2011-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of voluntary disclosure of `business risk' information (hereafter referred to as `risk information' ), which is a significant determinant of the information environment, on estimating the cost of capital. Recently, some studies indicate that the reliability of the cost of capital estimation differs according to the accounting standards and the information environment of the firm (e.g. Chen et al., 2004; Easton and Monahan, 2005). On the basis...

Reliability-based optimization of engineering structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2008-01-01

The theoretical basis for reliability-based structural optimization within the framework of Bayesian statistical decision theory is briefly described. Reliability-based cost benefit problems are formulated and exemplitied with structural optimization. The basic reliability-based optimization...... problems are generalized to the following extensions: interactive optimization, inspection and repair costs, systematic reconstruction, re-assessment of existing structures. Illustrative examples are presented including a simple introductory example, a decision problem related to bridge re...

Bulk electric system reliability evaluation incorporating wind power and demand side management

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Dange

correlations and the interactive effects of wind power and load forecast uncertainty on system reliability are examined. The concept of the security cost associated with operating in the marginal state in the well-being framework is incorporated in the economic analyses associated with system expansion planning including wind power and load forecast uncertainty. Overall reliability cost/worth analyses including security cost concepts are applied to select an optimal wind power injection strategy in a bulk electric system. The effects of the various demand side management measures on system reliability are illustrated using the system, load point, and well-being indices, and the reliability index probability distributions. The reliability effects of demand side management procedures in a bulk electric system including wind power and load forecast uncertainty considerations are also investigated. The system reliability effects due to specific demand side management programs are quantified and examined in terms of their reliability benefits.

Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2008-01-01

In order to minimise the total expected life-cycle costs of a wind turbine it is important to estimate the reliability level for all components in the wind turbine. This paper deals with reliability analysis for the tower and blades of onshore wind turbines placed in a wind farm. The limit states...... consideres are in the ultimate limit state (ULS) extreme conditions in the standstill position and extreme conditions during operating. For wind turbines, where the magnitude of the loads is influenced by the control system, the ultimate limit state can occur in both cases. In the fatigue limit state (FLS......) the reliability level for a wind turbine placed in a wind farm is considered, and wake effects from neighbouring wind turbines is taken into account. An illustrative example with calculation of the reliability for mudline bending of the tower is considered. In the example the design is determined according...

Reliability of candida skin test in the evaluation of T-cell function in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ehab

2017-01-23

Jan 23, 2017 ... considered generally reliable under the age of 1 year.6 ... We sought to investigate the reliability of manually ... Conclusion: Candida intradermal test is a cost- effective ..... Ballow M. Historical perspectives in the diagnosis.

Hawaii electric system reliability.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William

2012-09-01

This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

Process-based costing.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Robert H; Bott, Marjorie J; Forbes, Sarah; Redford, Linda; Swagerty, Daniel L; Taunton, Roma Lee

2003-01-01

Understanding how quality improvement affects costs is important. Unfortunately, low-cost, reliable ways of measuring direct costs are scarce. This article builds on the principles of process improvement to develop a costing strategy that meets both criteria. Process-based costing has 4 steps: developing a flowchart, estimating resource use, valuing resources, and calculating direct costs. To illustrate the technique, this article uses it to cost the care planning process in 3 long-term care facilities. We conclude that process-based costing is easy to implement; generates reliable, valid data; and allows nursing managers to assess the costs of new or modified processes.

Cost effectiveness and benefits of photovoltaics in the Gambia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Able-Thomas, U.; Hill, R.; O' Keefe, P.; Pearsall, N.M. (Northumbria Univ., Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom))

1994-08-01

This paper discusses the socio-economic benefits that the Gambia has derived from photovoltaics (PV) and its future potential. Technical performance, reliability and cost estimates are assessed for some PV applications. (Author)

Development of cost-effective Nb3Sn conductors for the next generation hadron colliders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scanlan, R.M.; Dietderich, D.R.; Zeitlin, B.A.

2001-01-01

Significant progress has been made in demonstrating that reliable, efficient high field dipole magnets can be made with Nb 3 Sn superconductors. A key factor in determining whether these magnets will be a cost-effective solution for the next generation hadron collider is the conductor cost. Consequently, DOE initiated a conductor development program to demonstrate that Nb 3 Sn can be improved to reach a cost/performance value of $1.50/kA-m at 12T, 4.2K. The first phase of this program was initiated in Jan 2000, with the goal of improving the key properties of interest for accelerator dipole magnets--high critical current density and low magnetization. New world record critical current densities have been reported recently, and it appears that significant potential exists for further improvement. Although new techniques for compensating for magnetization effects have reduced the requirements somewhat, techniques for lowering the effective filament size while maintaining these high Jc values are a program priority. The next phase of this program is focused on reducing the conductor cost through substitution of lower cost raw materials and through process improvements. The cost drivers for materials and fabrication have been identified, and projects are being initiated to demonstrate cost reductions

A reliable low-cost wireless and wearable gait monitoring system based on a plastic optical fibre sensor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilro, L; Pinto, J L; Oliveira, J G; Nogueira, R N

2011-01-01

A wearable and wireless system designed to evaluate quantitatively the human gait is presented. It allows knee sagittal motion monitoring over long distances and periods with a portable and low-cost package. It is based on the measurement of transmittance changes when a side-polished plastic optical fibre is bent. Four voluntary healthy subjects, on five different days, were tested in order to assess inter-day and inter-subject reliability. Results have shown that this technique is reliable, allows a one-time calibration and is suitable in the diagnosis and rehabilitation of knee injuries or for monitoring the performance of competitive athletes. Environmental testing was accomplished in order to study the influence of different temperatures and humidity conditions

Evaluation of the Influence of the Logistic Operations Reliability on the Total Costs of a Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukinskiy Valery

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Nowadays in logistics integral processes between the material and related flows in supply chains are getting developed more and more. However, in spite of increasing volume of statistical data which reflect the integral processes, the influence evaluation issues of the logistic operations reliability indexes on the total logistics costs remain open and require the corresponding researches implementation.

Mechanical reliability analysis of tubes intended for hydrocarbons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahal, Mourad; Khelif, Rabia [Badji Mokhtar University, Annaba (Algeria)

2013-02-15

Reliability analysis constitutes an essential phase in any study concerning reliability. Many industrialists evaluate and improve the reliability of their products during the development cycle - from design to startup (design, manufacture, and exploitation) - to develop their knowledge on cost/reliability ratio and to control sources of failure. In this study, we obtain results for hardness, tensile, and hydrostatic tests carried out on steel tubes for transporting hydrocarbons followed by statistical analysis. Results obtained allow us to conduct a reliability study based on resistance request. Thus, index of reliability is calculated and the importance of the variables related to the tube is presented. Reliability-based assessment of residual stress effects is applied to underground pipelines under a roadway, with and without active corrosion. Residual stress has been found to greatly increase probability of failure, especially in the early stages of pipe lifetime.

A Departmental Cost-Effectiveness Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Holleman, Thomas, Jr.

In establishing a departmental cost-effectiveness model, the traditional cost-effectiveness model was discussed and equipped with a distant and deflation equation for both benefits and costs. Next, the economics of costing was examined and program costing procedures developed. Then, the model construct was described as it was structured around the…

Risk-based Optimization and Reliability Levels of Coastal Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, H. F.

Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure, in...... on the minimumcost reliability levels is investigated for different values of the real rate of interest, the service lifetime, the downtime costs due to malfunction and the decommission costs.......Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure...

Risk-based Optimization and Reliability Levels of Coastal Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.

2005-01-01

 Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure, i...... on the minimumcost reliability levels is investigated for different values of the real rate of interest, the service lifetime, the downtime costs due to malfunction and the decommission costs....... Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure...

Biosimilar medicines and cost-effectiveness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Simoens

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Steven SimoensResearch Centre for Pharmaceutical Care and Pharmaco-economics, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumAbstract: Given that biosimilars are agents that are similar but not identical to the reference biopharmaceutical, this study aims to introduce and describe specific issues related to the economic evaluation of biosimilars by focusing on the relative costs, relative effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of biosimilars. Economic evaluation assesses the cost-effectiveness of a medicine by comparing the costs and outcomes of a medicine with those of a relevant comparator. The assessment of cost-effectiveness of a biosimilar is complicated by the fact that evidence needed to obtain marketing authorization from a registration authority does not always correspond to the data requirements of a reimbursement authority. In particular, this relates to the availability of adequately powered equivalence or noninferiority studies, the need for comparative data about the effectiveness in a real-world setting rather than the efficacy in a structured setting, and the use of health outcome measures instead of surrogate endpoints. As a biosimilar is likely to be less expensive than the comparator (eg, the reference biopharmaceutical, the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of a biosimilar depends on the relative effectiveness. If appropriately designed and powered clinical studies demonstrate equivalent effectiveness between a biosimilar and the comparator, then a cost-minimization analysis identifies the least expensive medicine. If there are differences in the effectiveness of a biosimilar and the comparator, other techniques of economic evaluation need to be employed, such as cost-effectiveness analysis or cost-utility analysis. Given that there may be uncertainty surrounding the long-term safety (ie, risk of immunogenicity and rare adverse events and effectiveness of a biosimilar, the cost-effectiveness

An Analysis of Failure Handling in Chameleon, A Framework for Supporting Cost-Effective Fault Tolerant Services

Science.gov (United States)

Haakensen, Erik Edward

1998-01-01

The desire for low-cost reliable computing is increasing. Most current fault tolerant computing solutions are not very flexible, i.e., they cannot adapt to reliability requirements of newly emerging applications in business, commerce, and manufacturing. It is important that users have a flexible, reliable platform to support both critical and noncritical applications. Chameleon, under development at the Center for Reliable and High-Performance Computing at the University of Illinois, is a software framework. for supporting cost-effective adaptable networked fault tolerant service. This thesis details a simulation of fault injection, detection, and recovery in Chameleon. The simulation was written in C++ using the DEPEND simulation library. The results obtained from the simulation included the amount of overhead incurred by the fault detection and recovery mechanisms supported by Chameleon. In addition, information about fault scenarios from which Chameleon cannot recover was gained. The results of the simulation showed that both critical and noncritical applications can be executed in the Chameleon environment with a fairly small amount of overhead. No single point of failure from which Chameleon could not recover was found. Chameleon was also found to be capable of recovering from several multiple failure scenarios.

A simulation model to estimate the cost and effectiveness of alternative dialysis initiation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chris P; Chertow, Glenn M; Zenios, Stefanos A

2006-01-01

Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) require dialysis to maintain survival. The optimal timing of dialysis initiation in terms of cost-effectiveness has not been established. We developed a simulation model of individuals progressing towards ESRD and requiring dialysis. It can be used to analyze dialysis strategies and scenarios. It was embedded in an optimization frame worked to derive improved strategies. Actual (historical) and simulated survival curves and hospitalization rates were virtually indistinguishable. The model overestimated transplantation costs (10%) but it was related to confounding by Medicare coverage. To assess the model's robustness, we examined several dialysis strategies while input parameters were perturbed. Under all 38 scenarios, relative rankings remained unchanged. An improved policy for a hypothetical patient was derived using an optimization algorithm. The model produces reliable results and is robust. It enables the cost-effectiveness analysis of dialysis strategies.

2017 NREL Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-08-15

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology -- both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Reliability assessment of Wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

Wind turbines can be considered as structures that are in between civil engineering structures and machines since they consist of structural components and many electrical and machine components together with a control system. Further, a wind turbine is not a one-of-a-kind structure...... but manufactured in series production based on many component tests, some prototype tests and zeroseries wind turbines. These characteristics influence the reliability assessment where focus in this paper is on the structural components. Levelized Cost Of Energy is very important for wind energy, especially when...... comparing to other energy sources. Therefore much focus is on cost reductions and improved reliability both for offshore and onshore wind turbines. The wind turbine components should be designed to have sufficient reliability level with respect to both extreme and fatigue loads but also not be too costly...

Structural reliability codes for probabilistic design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

1997-01-01

probabilistic code format has not only strong influence on the formal reliability measure, but also on the formal cost of failure to be associated if a design made to the target reliability level is considered to be optimal. In fact, the formal cost of failure can be different by several orders of size for two...... different, but by and large equally justifiable probabilistic code formats. Thus, the consequence is that a code format based on decision theoretical concepts and formulated as an extension of a probabilistic code format must specify formal values to be used as costs of failure. A principle of prudence...... is suggested for guiding the choice of the reference probabilistic code format for constant reliability. In the author's opinion there is an urgent need for establishing a standard probabilistic reliability code. This paper presents some considerations that may be debatable, but nevertheless point...

PV O&M Cost Model and Cost Reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walker, Andy

2017-03-15

This is a presentation on PV O&M cost model and cost reduction for the annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (2017), covering estimating PV O&M costs, polynomial expansion, and implementation of Net Present Value (NPV) and reserve account in cost models.

Composite reliability evaluation for transmission network planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiashen Teh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As the penetration of wind power into the power system increases, the ability to assess the reliability impact of such interaction becomes more important. The composite reliability evaluations involving wind energy provide ample opportunities for assessing the benefits of different wind farm connection points. A connection to the weak area of the transmission network will require network reinforcement for absorbing the additional wind energy. Traditionally, the reinforcements are performed by constructing new transmission corridors. However, a new state-of-art technology such as the dynamic thermal rating (DTR system, provides new reinforcement strategy and this requires new reliability assessment method. This paper demonstrates a methodology for assessing the cost and the reliability of network reinforcement strategies by considering the DTR systems when large scale wind farms are connected to the existing power network. Sequential Monte Carlo simulations were performed and all DTRs and wind speed were simulated using the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA model. Various reinforcement strategies were assessed from their cost and reliability aspects. Practical industrial standards are used as guidelines when assessing costs. Due to this, the proposed methodology in this paper is able to determine the optimal reinforcement strategies when both the cost and reliability requirements are considered.

Application of customer-interruption costs for optimum distribution planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mok, Y.L.; Chung, T.S.

1996-01-01

We present a new methodology for obtaining optimum values of the integrated cost of utility investment with customer interruption in distribution planning for electric power systems by determining the reliability cost and worth of the distribution system. Reliability cost refers to investment cost of the utility in achieving a defined level of reliability. Reliability worth is the benefit gained by the utility customer from an increase of reliability. A computer program has been developed to determine comparative reliability indices for a typical distribution network. With the average interruption cost, outage duration, average disconnected load, cost data for distribution equipment, etc. being known, the relation between reliability cost, reliability worth and reliability at the specified load point are obtained. The optimum reliability of the distribution system is then determined from the minimum cost to the utility with customer interruption. The applicability of this approach is demonstrated by several practical networks. (Author)

FIA BioSum: a tool to evaluate financial costs, opportunities and effectiveness of fuel treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeremy Fried; Glenn. Christensen

2004-01-01

FIA BioSum, a tool developed by the USDA Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program, generates reliable cost estimates, identifies opportunities and evaluates the effectiveness of fuel treatments in forested landscapes. BioSum is an analytic framework that integrates a suite of widely used computer models with a foundation of attribute-rich,...

The effect of plant reliability improvement in the cost of generating electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nejat, S.; Sanders, R.C.; Tsoulfanidis, N.

1982-01-01

The objective of this investigation is to study the economic benefits in operating a nuclear power plant, as a result of improving the availability of the secondary (steam) loop of the plant. A new method has been developed to obtain availability, frequency of failure, probability and frequency of operation, cycle time, and uptime for different capacity states of a parallel series system having components with failure and repair rates distributed exponentially in time. The method has been applied to different subsystems, systems, and the secondary loop of a plant as a whole. The effect of having spare parts for several components, as measured by savings in the generation of electricity, is also studied. The Kettelle algorithm was applied to determine optimal allocation of spare parts to achieve maximum availability or minimum cost of electricity, subject to a fixed spare parts budget. The savings per year for optimal spare parts allocation and different spare parts budgets were obtained. The results show that the utility will save its customers a large amount of money if spare parts are purchased, especially at the beginning of the plant operation, and are allocated judiciously

[Cost-effectiveness of addiction care].

Science.gov (United States)

Suijkerbuijk, A W M; van Gils, P F; Greeven, P G J; de Wit, G A

2015-01-01

A large number of interventions are available for the treatment of addiction. Professionals need to know about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions so they can prioritise appropriate interventions for the treatment of addiction. To provide an overview of the scientific literature on the cost-effectiveness of addiction treatment for alcohol- and drug-abusers. We searched the databases Medline and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination. To be relevant for our study, articles had to focus on interventions in the health-care setting, have a Western context and have a health-related outcome measure such as quality adjusted life years (QALY). Twenty-nine studies met our inclusion criteria: 15 for alcohol and 14 for drugs. The studies on alcohol addiction related mainly to brief interventions. They proved to be cost-saving or had a favourable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), remaining below the threshold of € 20,000 per QALY. The studies on drug addiction all involved pharmacotherapeutic interventions. In the case of 10 out of 14 interventions, the ICER was less than € 20,000 per QALY. Almost all of the interventions studied were cost-saving or cost-effective. Many studies consider only health-care costs. Additional research, for instance using a social cost-benefit analysis, could provide more details about the costs of addiction and about the impact that an intervention could have in these/the costs.

The Interpersonal Sunk-Cost Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Olivola, Christopher Y

2018-05-01

The sunk-cost fallacy-pursuing an inferior alternative merely because we have previously invested significant, but nonrecoverable, resources in it-represents a striking violation of rational decision making. Whereas theoretical accounts and empirical examinations of the sunk-cost effect have generally been based on the assumption that it is a purely intrapersonal phenomenon (i.e., solely driven by one's own past investments), the present research demonstrates that it is also an interpersonal effect (i.e., people will alter their choices in response to other people's past investments). Across eight experiments ( N = 6,076) covering diverse scenarios, I documented sunk-cost effects when the costs are borne by someone other than the decision maker. Moreover, the interpersonal sunk-cost effect is not moderated by social closeness or whether other people observe their sunk costs being "honored." These findings uncover a previously undocumented bias, reveal that the sunk-cost effect is a much broader phenomenon than previously thought, and pose interesting challenges for existing accounts of this fascinating human tendency.

Health economic studies: an introduction to cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Angevine, Peter D; Berven, Sigurd

2014-10-15

Narrative overview. To provide clinicians with a basic understanding of economic studies, including cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses. As decisions regarding public health policy, insurance reimbursement, and patient care incorporate factors other than traditional outcomes such as satisfaction or symptom resolution, health economic studies are increasingly prominent in the literature. This trend will likely continue, and it is therefore important for clinicians to have a fundamental understanding of the common types of economic studies and be able to read them critically. In this brief article, the basic concepts of economic studies and the differences between cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility studies are discussed. An overview of the field of health economic analysis is presented. Cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility studies all integrate cost and outcome data into a decision analysis model. These different types of studies are distinguished mainly by the way in which outcomes are valued. Obtaining accurate cost data is often difficult and can limit the generalizability of a study. With a basic understanding of health economic analysis, clinicians can be informed consumers of these important studies.

42 CFR 457.1015 - Cost-effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cost-effectiveness. 457.1015 Section 457.1015... Waivers: General Provisions § 457.1015 Cost-effectiveness. (a) Definition. For purposes of this subpart... may demonstrate cost-effectiveness by comparing the cost of coverage for the family to the cost of...

Cost effective reductions in the agricultural load of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elofsson, K.

1997-11-01

To restore the health of the Baltic Sea, the Helsinki Commission, HELCOM, suggests that the nitrogen load should be reduced by 50%. The agricultural sector accounts for about 1/3 of the total load of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea, while point sources account for about 1/4. The remaining load reaches the Baltic as atmospheric deposition. The purpose of this study is to calculate cost effective reductions in the agricultural load of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea coastal waters. The Baltic Sea drainage basin is divided into 17 regions, which differ with respect to costs, leaching and nitrogen retention. For each region, cost functions are estimated for 11 nitrogen abatement measures in the agricultural sector. It is difficult to find reliable data on both costs and biological parameters for all regions included, and several assumptions are made to obtain the cost functions. In this paper the total cost of a 50% reduction of the nitrogen load from arable land is estimated to 11,700 million SEK per year. A decrease in the use of fertilizer nitrogen is the most important measure in a cost effective policy. Other measures included in the cost effective solution are changes in land-use and in manure management practices. If, instead, each country is required to reduce its load by 50%, the total cost will increase by nearly 60%. Three out of nine countries around the Baltic Sea would gain from separate reduction targets, while all others lose by such a policy. The results are sensitive to assumptions about the biological parameters and the shape of the cost functions for reductions in chemical fertilizer. 75 refs, 3 figs, 11 tabs

Thermal Management and Reliability of Power Electronics and Electric Machines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narumanchi, Sreekant

2016-06-13

Increasing the number of electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) on America's roads has been identified as a strategy with near-term potential for dramatically decreasing the nation's dependence on oil - by the U.S. Department of Energy, the federal cross-agency EV-Everywhere Challenge, and the automotive industry. Mass-market deployment will rely on meeting aggressive technical targets, including improved efficiency and reduced size, weight, and cost. Many of these advances will depend on optimization of thermal management. Effective thermal management is critical to improving the performance and ensuring the reliability of EDVs. Efficient heat removal makes higher power densities and lower operating temperatures possible, and in turn enables cost and size reductions. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), along with DOE and industry partners is working to develop cost-effective thermal management solutions to increase device and component power densities. In this presentation, the activities in recent years related to thermal management and reliability of automotive power electronics and electric machines are presented.

Reliability assessment for metallized film pulse capacitors with accelerated degradation test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Jianyin; Liu Fang; Xi Wenjun; He Shaobo; Wei Xiaofeng

2011-01-01

The high energy density self-healing metallized film pulse capacitor has been applied to all kinds of laser facilities for their power conditioning systems, whose reliability is straightforward affected by the reliability level of capacitors. Reliability analysis of highly reliable devices, such as metallized film capacitors, is a challenge due to cost and time restriction. Accelerated degradation test provides a way to predict its life cost and time effectively. A model and analyses for accelerated degradation data of metallized film capacitors are described. Also described is a method for estimating the distribution of failure time. The estimation values of the unknown parameters in this model are 9.066 9 x 10 -8 and 0.022 1. Both the failure probability density function (PDF) and the cumulative distribution function (CDF) can be presented by this degradation failure model. Based on these estimation values and the PDF/CDF, the reliability model of the metallized film capacitors is obtained. According to the reliability model, the probability of the capacitors surviving to 20 000 shot is 0.972 4. (authors)

Cost effectiveness analysis in radiopharmacy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carpentier, N.; Verbeke, S.; Ducloux, T.

1999-01-01

Objective: to evaluate the cost effectiveness of radiopharmaceuticals and their quality control. Materials and methods: this retrospective study was made in the Nuclear Medicine Department of the University Hospital of Limoges. Radiopharmaceutical costs were obtained with adding the price of the radiotracer, the materials, the equipments, the labour, the running expenses and the radioisotope. The costs of quality control were obtained with adding the price of labour, materials, equipments, running expenses and the cost of the quality control of 99m Tc eluate. Results: during 1998, 2106 radiopharmaceuticals were prepared in the Nuclear Medicine Department. The mean cost effectiveness of radiopharmaceutical was 1430 francs (846 to 4260). The mean cost effectiveness of quality control was 163 francs (84 to 343). The rise of the radiopharmaceutical cost induced by quality control was 11%. Conclusion: the technical methodology of quality control must be mastered to optimize the cost of this operation. (author)

CT colonography and cost-effectiveness

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mavranezouli, Ifigeneia [University College London, National Collaborating Centre for Mental Health, Centre for Outcomes Research and Effectiveness, Sub-department of Clinical Health Psychology, London (United Kingdom); East, James E. [St Marks Hospital, Imperial College London, Wolfson Unit for Endoscopy, London (United Kingdom); Taylor, Stuart A. [University College Hospital, Specialist X-Ray, London (United Kingdom); University College Hospital, Department of Imaging, London (United Kingdom)

2008-11-15

CT colonography (CTC) is increasingly advocated as an effective initial screening tool for colorectal cancer. Nowadays, policy-makers are increasingly interested in cost-effectiveness issues. A number of studies assessing the cost-effectiveness of CTC have been published to date. The majority of findings indicate that CTC is probably not cost-effective when colonoscopy is available, but this conclusion is sensitive to a number of key parameters. This review discusses the findings of these studies, and considers those factors which most influence final conclusions, notably intervention costs, compliance rates, effectiveness of colonoscopy, and the assumed prevalence and natural history of diminutive advanced polyps. (orig.)

CT colonography and cost-effectiveness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavranezouli, Ifigeneia; East, James E.; Taylor, Stuart A.

2008-01-01

CT colonography (CTC) is increasingly advocated as an effective initial screening tool for colorectal cancer. Nowadays, policy-makers are increasingly interested in cost-effectiveness issues. A number of studies assessing the cost-effectiveness of CTC have been published to date. The majority of findings indicate that CTC is probably not cost-effective when colonoscopy is available, but this conclusion is sensitive to a number of key parameters. This review discusses the findings of these studies, and considers those factors which most influence final conclusions, notably intervention costs, compliance rates, effectiveness of colonoscopy, and the assumed prevalence and natural history of diminutive advanced polyps. (orig.)

More reliable financing of future nuclear waste costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

This appendix contains seven reports written by consultants to the Commission. The report titles are: Basic document regarding the inquiry on fund management; Scenarios for growth and real interest rates in a long perspective; Stability of the Swedish financing system; Report concerning the financing of nuclear waste management in Sweden and Finland and the cost control system in Sweden; Evaluation of the cost estimates and calculation methods of SKB; A study of the costs for nuclear waste - The basis for cost estimation; A review of scope and costs for the Swedish system for management of nuclear waste. The four last reports are separately indexed

Costs and cost-effectiveness of pediatric inguinal hernia repair in Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Eeson, Gareth; Birabwa-Male, Doreen; Pennington, Mark; Blair, Geoffrey K

2015-02-01

Surgically treatable diseases contribute approximately 11% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) worldwide yet they remain a neglected public health priority in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Pediatric inguinal hernia is the most common congenital abnormality in newborns and a major cause of morbidity and mortality yet elective repair remains largely unavailable in LMICs. This study is aimed to determine the costs and cost-effectiveness of pediatric inguinal hernia repair (PIHR) in a low-resource setting. Medical costs of consecutive elective PIHRs were recorded prospectively at two centers in Uganda. Decision modeling was used to compare two different treatment scenarios (adoption of PIHR and non-adoption) from a provider perspective. A Markov model was constructed to estimate health outcomes under each scenario. The robustness of the cost-effectiveness results in the base case analysis was tested in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome of interest was cost per DALY averted by the intervention. Sixty-nine PIHRs were performed in 65 children (mean age 3.6 years). Mean cost per procedure was $86.68 US (95% CI 83.1-90.2 USD) and averted an average of 5.7 DALYs each. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $12.41 per DALY averted. The probability of cost-effectiveness was 95% at a cost-effectiveness threshold of $35 per averted DALY. Results were robust to sensitivity analysis under all considered scenarios. Elective PIHR is highly cost-effective for the treatment and prevention of complications of hernia disease even in low-resource settings. PIHR should be prioritized in LMICs alongside other cost-effective interventions.

Cost-optimization of the IPv4 zeroconf protocol

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bohnenkamp, H.C.; van der Stok, Peter; Hermanns, H.; Vaandrager, Frits

2003-01-01

This paper investigates the tradeoff between reliability and effectiveness for the IPv4 Zeroconf protocol, proposed by Cheshire/Adoba/Guttman in 2002, dedicated to the selfconfiguration of IP network interfaces. We develop a simple stochastic cost model of the protocol, where reliability is measured

Cost minimization of generation, storage, and new loads, comparing costs with and without externalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Noel, Lance Douglas; Brodie, Joseph; Kempton, Willett

2017-01-01

G) technology, and building heat) are modeled within the PJM Interconnection. The corresponding electric systems are then operated and constrained to meet the load every hour over four years. The total cost of each energy system is calculated, both with and without externalities, to find the least...... cost energy systems. Using today’s costs of conventional and renewable electricity and without adding any externalities, the cost-minimum system includes no renewable generation, but does include EVs. When externalities are included, however, the most cost-effective to system covers 50% of the electric...... load with renewable energy and runs reliably without need for either new conventional generation or purpose-built storage. The three novel energy policy implications of this research are: (1) using today’s cost of renewable electricity and estimates of externalities, it is cost effective to implement...

Reliability enhancement through optimal burn-in

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, W.

1984-06-01

A numerical reliability and cost model is defined for production line burn-in tests of electronic components. The necessity of burn-in is governed by upper and lower bounds: burn-in is mandatory for operation-critical or nonreparable component; no burn-in is needed when failure effects are insignificant or easily repairable. The model considers electronic systems in terms of a series of components connected by a single black box. The infant mortality rate is described with a Weibull distribution. Performance reaches a steady state after burn-in, and the cost of burn-in is a linear function for each component. A minimum cost is calculated among the costs and total time of burn-in, shop repair, and field repair, with attention given to possible losses in future sales from inadequate burn-in testing.

Hybrids - Best of both worlds. [liquid and solid propellants mated for safe reliable and low cost launch vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, Ben E.; Wiley, Dan R.

1991-01-01

An overview is presented of hybrid rocket propulsion systems whereby combining solids and liquids for launch vehicles could produce a safe, reliable, and low-cost product. The primary subsystems of a hybrid system consist of the oxidizer tank and feed system, an injector system, a solid fuel grain enclosed in a pressure vessel case, a mixing chamber, and a nozzle. The hybrid rocket has an inert grain, which reduces costs of development, transportation, manufacturing, and launch by avoiding many safety measures that must be taken when operating with solids. Other than their use in launch vehicles, hybrids are excellent for simulating the exhaust of solid rocket motors for material development.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antidepressants in primary care: a multiple treatment comparison meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joakim Ramsberg

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To determine effectiveness and cost-effectiveness over a one-year time horizon of pharmacological first line treatment in primary care for patients with moderate to severe depression. DESIGN: A multiple treatment comparison meta-analysis was employed to determine the relative efficacy in terms of remission of 10 antidepressants (citalopram, duloxetine escitalopram, fluoxetine, fluvoxamine mirtazapine, paroxetine, reboxetine, sertraline and venlafaxine. The estimated remission rates were then applied in a decision-analytic model in order to estimate costs and quality of life with different treatments at one year. DATA SOURCES: Meta-analyses of remission rates from randomised controlled trials, and cost and quality-of-life data from published sources. RESULTS: The most favourable pharmacological treatment in terms of remission was escitalopram with an 8- to 12-week probability of remission of 0.47. Despite a high acquisition cost, this clinical effectiveness translated into escitalopram being both more effective and having a lower total cost than all other comparators from a societal perspective. From a healthcare perspective, the cost per QALY of escitalopram was €3732 compared with venlafaxine. CONCLUSION: Of the investigated antidepressants, escitalopram has the highest probability of remission and is the most effective and cost-effective pharmacological treatment in a primary care setting, when evaluated over a one year time-horizon. Small differences in remission rates may be important when assessing costs and cost-effectiveness of antidepressants.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of malaria control interventions - a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

White Michael T

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The control and elimination of malaria requires expanded coverage of and access to effective malaria control interventions such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs, indoor residual spraying (IRS, intermittent preventive treatment (IPT, diagnostic testing and appropriate treatment. Decisions on how to scale up the coverage of these interventions need to be based on evidence of programme effectiveness, equity and cost-effectiveness. Methods A systematic review of the published literature on the costs and cost-effectiveness of malaria interventions was undertaken. All costs and cost-effectiveness ratios were inflated to 2009 USD to allow comparison of the costs and benefits of several different interventions through various delivery channels, across different geographical regions and from varying costing perspectives. Results Fifty-five studies of the costs and forty three studies of the cost-effectiveness of malaria interventions were identified, 78% of which were undertaken in sub-Saharan Africa, 18% in Asia and 4% in South America. The median financial cost of protecting one person for one year was $2.20 (range $0.88-$9.54 for ITNs, $6.70 (range $2.22-$12.85 for IRS, $0.60 (range $0.48-$1.08 for IPT in infants, $4.03 (range $1.25-$11.80 for IPT in children, and $2.06 (range $0.47-$3.36 for IPT in pregnant women. The median financial cost of diagnosing a case of malaria was $4.32 (range $0.34-$9.34. The median financial cost of treating an episode of uncomplicated malaria was $5.84 (range $2.36-$23.65 and the median financial cost of treating an episode of severe malaria was $30.26 (range $15.64-$137.87. Economies of scale were observed in the implementation of ITNs, IRS and IPT, with lower unit costs reported in studies with larger numbers of beneficiaries. From a provider perspective, the median incremental cost effectiveness ratio per disability adjusted life year averted was $27 (range $8.15-$110 for ITNs, $143 (range $135

Cost benefit analysis cost effectiveness analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, J.

1986-09-01

The comparison of various protection options in order to determine which is the best compromise between cost of protection and residual risk is the purpose of the ALARA procedure. The use of decision-aiding techniques is valuable as an aid to selection procedures. The purpose of this study is to introduce two rather simple and well known decision aiding techniques: the cost-effectiveness analysis and the cost-benefit analysis. These two techniques are relevant for the great part of ALARA decisions which need the use of a quantitative technique. The study is based on an hypothetical case of 10 protection options. Four methods are applied to the data

RodPilotR - The Innovative and Cost-Effective Digital Control Rod Drive Control System for PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, Clemens

2008-01-01

With RodPilot, AREVA NP offers an innovative and cost-effective system for controlling control rods in Pressurized Water Reactors. RodPilot controls the three operating coils of the control rod drive mechanism (lift, moveable gripper and stationary gripper coil). The rods are inserted into or withdrawn from the core as required by the Reactor Control System. The system combines modern components, state-of-the-art logic and a proven electronic control rod drive control principle to provide enhanced reliability and lower maintenance costs. (author)

Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delucchi, Mark A.; Jacobson, Mark Z.

2011-01-01

This is Part II of two papers evaluating the feasibility of providing all energy for all purposes (electric power, transportation, and heating/cooling), everywhere in the world, from wind, water, and the sun (WWS). In Part I, we described the prominent renewable energy plans that have been proposed and discussed the characteristics of WWS energy systems, the global demand for and availability of WWS energy, quantities and areas required for WWS infrastructure, and supplies of critical materials. Here, we discuss methods of addressing the variability of WWS energy to ensure that power supply reliably matches demand (including interconnecting geographically dispersed resources, using hydroelectricity, using demand-response management, storing electric power on site, over-sizing peak generation capacity and producing hydrogen with the excess, storing electric power in vehicle batteries, and forecasting weather to project energy supplies), the economics of WWS generation and transmission, the economics of WWS use in transportation, and policy measures needed to enhance the viability of a WWS system. We find that the cost of energy in a 100% WWS will be similar to the cost today. We conclude that barriers to a 100% conversion to WWS power worldwide are primarily social and political, not technological or even economic. - Research highlights: → We evaluate the feasibility of global energy supply from wind, water, and solar energy. → WWS energy can be supplied reliably and economically to all energy-use sectors. → The social cost of WWS energy generally is less than the cost of fossil-fuel energy. → Barriers to 100% WWS power worldwide are socio-political, not techno-economic.

Results of a Demonstration Assessment of Passive System Reliability Utilizing the Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia; Grelle, Austin

2015-04-26

Advanced small modular reactor designs include many advantageous design features such as passively driven safety systems that are arguably more reliable and cost effective relative to conventional active systems. Despite their attractiveness, a reliability assessment of passive systems can be difficult using conventional reliability methods due to the nature of passive systems. Simple deviations in boundary conditions can induce functional failures in a passive system, and intermediate or unexpected operating modes can also occur. As part of an ongoing project, Argonne National Laboratory is investigating various methodologies to address passive system reliability. The Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS), a systematic approach for examining reliability, is one technique chosen for this analysis. This methodology is combined with the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) approach to assess the reliability of a passive system and the impact of its associated uncertainties. For this demonstration problem, an integrated plant model of an advanced small modular pool-type sodium fast reactor with a passive reactor cavity cooling system is subjected to a station blackout using RELAP5-3D. This paper discusses important aspects of the reliability assessment, including deployment of the methodology, the uncertainty identification and quantification process, and identification of key risk metrics.

Junction Temperature Control for More Reliable Power Electronics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andresen, Markus; Ma, Ke; Buticchi, Giampaolo

2018-01-01

The thermal stress of power electronic components is one of the most important causes of their failure. Proper thermal management plays an important role for more reliable and cost-effective energy conversion. As one of the most vulnerable and expensive components, power semiconductor components ...... the desired cost-benefit tradeoff. This paper analyzes also the many open questions of this research area. Among them, it is worth highlighting that a verification of the actual lifetime extension is still missing....

What Are the Real Procedural Costs of Bariatric Surgery? A Systematic Literature Review of Published Cost Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Doble, Brett; Wordsworth, Sarah; Rogers, Chris A; Welbourn, Richard; Byrne, James; Blazeby, Jane M

2017-08-01

This review aims to evaluate the current literature on the procedural costs of bariatric surgery for the treatment of severe obesity. Using a published framework for the conduct of micro-costing studies for surgical interventions, existing cost estimates from the literature are assessed for their accuracy, reliability and comprehensiveness based on their consideration of seven 'important' cost components. MEDLINE, PubMed, key journals and reference lists of included studies were searched up to January 2017. Eligible studies had to report per-case, total procedural costs for any type of bariatric surgery broken down into two or more individual cost components. A total of 998 citations were screened, of which 13 studies were included for analysis. Included studies were mainly conducted from a US hospital perspective, assessed either gastric bypass or adjustable gastric banding procedures and considered a range of different cost components. The mean total procedural costs for all included studies was US$14,389 (range, US$7423 to US$33,541). No study considered all of the recommended 'important' cost components and estimation methods were poorly reported. The accuracy, reliability and comprehensiveness of the existing cost estimates are, therefore, questionable. There is a need for a comparative cost analysis of the different approaches to bariatric surgery, with the most appropriate costing approach identified to be micro-costing methods. Such an analysis will not only be useful in estimating the relative cost-effectiveness of different surgeries but will also ensure appropriate reimbursement and budgeting by healthcare payers to ensure barriers to access this effective treatment by severely obese patients are minimised.

A study of low-cost reliable actuators for light aircraft. Part A: Chapters 1-8

Science.gov (United States)

Eijsink, H.; Rice, M.

1978-01-01

An analysis involving electro-mechanical, electro-pneumatic, and electro-hydraulic actuators was performed to study which are compatible for use in the primary and secondary flight controls of a single engine light aircraft. Actuator characteristics under investigation include cost, reliability, weight, force, volumetric requirements, power requirements, response characteristics and heat accumulation characteristics. The basic types of actuators were compared for performance characteristics in positioning a control surface model and then were mathematically evaluated in an aircraft to get the closed loop dynamic response characteristics. Conclusions were made as to the suitability of each actuator type for use in an aircraft.

Comparison of Quantity Versus Quality Using Performance, Reliability, and Life Cycle Cost Data. A Case Study of the F-15, F-16, and A-10 Aircraft.

Science.gov (United States)

1985-09-01

CoC S~04 COMPARISON OF QUANTITY VERSUS QUALITY USING PERFORMANCE, RELIABILITY, AND LIFE CYCLE COST DATA. A CASE STUDY OF THE F-15, F-16, AND A-10...CYCLE COSTIATU.AT CAE AIR ORE HEO OG .- jAITR UIVERSITY W right.,Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio .! 5ൔ ,6 198 C.IT. U AF’IT/GSL,4/L3Q/65:S Ŗ J...COMPARISON OF QUANTITY VERSUS QUALITY USING PERFORMANCE, RELIABILITY, AND LIFE CYCLE COST DATA. A CASE STUDY OF THE F-15, F-16, AND A-10 AIRCRAFT THESIS David

Reliability Improved Design for a Safety System Channel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Eung Se; Kim, Yun Goo [KHNP, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

Nowadays, these systems are implemented with a same platform type, such as a qualified programmable logic controller (PLC). The platform intensively uses digital communication with fiber-optic links to reduce cabling costs and to achieve effective signal isolation. These communication interface and redundancies within a channel increase the complexness of an overall system design. This paper proposes a simpler channel architecture design to reduce the complexity and to enhance overall channel reliability. Simplified safety channel configuration is proposed and the failure probabilities are compared with baseline safety channel configuration using an estimated generic value. The simplified channel configuration achieves 40 percent failure reduction compare to baseline safety channel configuration. If this configuration can be implemented within a processor module, overall safety channel reliability is increase and costs of fabrication and maintenance will be greatly reduced.

Reliability Improved Design for a Safety System Channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Eung Se; Kim, Yun Goo

2016-01-01

Nowadays, these systems are implemented with a same platform type, such as a qualified programmable logic controller (PLC). The platform intensively uses digital communication with fiber-optic links to reduce cabling costs and to achieve effective signal isolation. These communication interface and redundancies within a channel increase the complexness of an overall system design. This paper proposes a simpler channel architecture design to reduce the complexity and to enhance overall channel reliability. Simplified safety channel configuration is proposed and the failure probabilities are compared with baseline safety channel configuration using an estimated generic value. The simplified channel configuration achieves 40 percent failure reduction compare to baseline safety channel configuration. If this configuration can be implemented within a processor module, overall safety channel reliability is increase and costs of fabrication and maintenance will be greatly reduced

A novel ontology approach to support design for reliability considering environmental effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Bo; Li, Yu; Ye, Tianyuan; Ren, Yi

2015-01-01

Environmental effects are not considered sufficiently in product design. Reliability problems caused by environmental effects are very prominent. This paper proposes a method to apply ontology approach in product design. During product reliability design and analysis, environmental effects knowledge reusing is achieved. First, the relationship of environmental effects and product reliability is analyzed. Then environmental effects ontology to describe environmental effects domain knowledge is designed. Related concepts of environmental effects are formally defined by using the ontology approach. This model can be applied to arrange environmental effects knowledge in different environments. Finally, rubber seals used in the subhumid acid rain environment are taken as an example to illustrate ontological model application on reliability design and analysis.

Evaluating system reliability and targeted hardening strategies of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salman, Abdullahi M.; Li, Yue; Stewart, Mark G.

2015-01-01

Over the years, power distribution systems have been vulnerable to extensive damage from hurricanes which can cause power outage resulting in millions of dollars of economic losses and restoration costs. Most of the outage is as a result of failure of distribution support structures. Over the years, various methods of strengthening distribution systems have been proposed and studied. Some of these methods, such as undergrounding of the system, have been shown to be unjustified from an economic point of view. A potential cost-effective strategy is targeted hardening of the system. This, however, requires a method of determining critical parts of a system that when strengthened, will have greater impact on reliability. This paper presents a framework for studying the effectiveness of targeted hardening strategies on power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes. The framework includes a methodology for evaluating system reliability that relates failure of poles and power delivery, determination of critical parts of a system, hurricane hazard analysis, and consideration of decay of distribution poles. The framework also incorporates cost analysis that considers economic losses due to power outage. A notional power distribution system is used to demonstrate the framework by evaluating and comparing the effectiveness of three hardening measures. - Highlight: • Risk assessment of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes is carried out. • Framework for studying effectiveness of targeted hardening strategies is presented. • A system reliability method is proposed. • Targeted hardening is cost effective for existing systems. • Economic losses due to power outage should be considered for cost analysis.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of conventional and liquid-based ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Methods. The unit of effectiveness was defined as the number of cervical intraepithelial neoplasm (CIN) II or higher lesions detected. Costs were assessed retrospectively for the financial year (2010/11) from a laboratory service provider perspective. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by combining secondary data ...

Cost-effective hybrid RF/FSO backhaul solution for next generation wireless systems

KAUST Repository

Dahrouj, Hayssam

2015-10-28

The rapid pace of demand for mobile data services and the limited supply of capacity in the current wireless access networks infrastructure are leading network operators to increase the density of base station deployments to improve network performance. This densification, made possible by small-cell deployment, also brings a novel set of challenges, specifically related to the cost of ownership, in which backhaul is of primary concern. This article proposes a cost-effective hybrid RF/free-space optical (FSO) solution to combine the advantages of RF backhauls (low cost, NLOS applications) and FSO backhauls (high-rate, low latency). To first illustrate the cost advantages of the RF backhaul solution, the first part of this article presents a business case of NLOS wireless RF backhaul, which has a low cost of ownership as compared to other backhaul candidates. RF backhaul, however, is limited by latency problems. On the other side, an FSO solution, which offers better latency and higher data rate than RF backhauls, remains sensitive to weather and nature conditions (e.g., rain, fog). To combine RF and FSO advantages, the second part of this article proposes a lowcost hybrid RF/FSO solution, wherein base stations are connected to each other using either optical fiber or hybrid RF/FSO links. This part addresses the problem of minimizing the cost of backhaul planning under reliability, connectivity, and data rate constraints, and proposes choosing the appropriate cost-effective backhaul connection between BSs (i.e., either OF or hybrid RF/FSO) using graph theory techniques.

Costs and effects in lumbar spinal fusion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soegaard, Rikke; Christensen, Finn Bjarke; Christiansen, Terkel

2007-01-01

of the Dallas Pain Questionnaire and the Low Back Pain Rating Scale at baseline and 2 years postoperatively. Regression models were used to reveal determinants for costs and effects. Costs and effects were analyzed as a net-benefit measure to reveal determinants for cost-effectiveness, and finally, adjusted...... areas. Multi-level fusion and surgical technique significantly affected the net-benefit as well. Surprisingly, no correlation was found between treatment costs and treatment effects. Incremental analysis suggested that the probability of posterior instrumentation being cost-effective was limited......Although cost-effectiveness is becoming the foremost evaluative criterion within health service management of spine surgery, scientific knowledge about cost-patterns and cost-effectiveness is limited. The aims of this study were (1) to establish an activity-based method for costing at the patient...

Design reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buden, D.; Hunt, R.N.M.

1989-01-01

Improved design techniques are needed to achieve high reliability at minimum cost. This is especially true of space systems where lifetimes of many years without maintenance are needed and severe mass limitations exist. Reliability must be designed into these systems from the start. Techniques are now being explored to structure a formal design process that will be more complete and less expensive. The intent is to integrate the best features of design, reliability analysis, and expert systems to design highly reliable systems to meet stressing needs. Taken into account are the large uncertainties that exist in materials, design models, and fabrication techniques. Expert systems are a convenient method to integrate into the design process a complete definition of all elements that should be considered and an opportunity to integrate the design process with reliability, safety, test engineering, maintenance and operator training. 1 fig

2015 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshops

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-09-14

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

2016 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-09-07

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

The costs and cost-effectiveness of an integrated sepsis treatment protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Talmor, Daniel; Greenberg, Dan; Howell, Michael D; Lisbon, Alan; Novack, Victor; Shapiro, Nathan

2008-04-01

Sepsis is associated with high mortality and treatment costs. International guidelines recommend the implementation of integrated sepsis protocols; however, the true cost and cost-effectiveness of these are unknown. To assess the cost-effectiveness of an integrated sepsis protocol, as compared with conventional care. Prospective cohort study of consecutive patients presenting with septic shock and enrolled in the institution's integrated sepsis protocol. Clinical and economic outcomes were compared with a historical control cohort. Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. Overall, 79 patients presenting to the emergency department with septic shock in the treatment cohort and 51 patients in the control group. An integrated sepsis treatment protocol incorporating empirical antibiotics, early goal-directed therapy, intensive insulin therapy, lung-protective ventilation, and consideration for drotrecogin alfa and steroid therapy. In-hospital treatment costs were collected using the hospital's detailed accounting system. The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from the perspective of the healthcare system using a lifetime horizon. The primary end point for the cost-effectiveness analysis was the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained. Mortality in the treatment group was 20.3% vs. 29.4% in the control group (p = .23). Implementing an integrated sepsis protocol resulted in a mean increase in cost of approximately $8,800 per patient, largely driven by increased intensive care unit length of stay. Life expectancy and quality-adjusted life years were higher in the treatment group; 0.78 and 0.54, respectively. The protocol was associated with an incremental cost of $11,274 per life-year saved and a cost of $16,309 per quality-adjusted life year gained. In patients with septic shock, an integrated sepsis protocol, although not cost-saving, appears to be cost-effective and compares very favorably to other commonly delivered acute care interventions.

Risks and Transaction Costs of Distributed-Ledger Fintech: Boundary Effects and Consequences

OpenAIRE

Kaivanto, Kim; Prince, Daniel

2017-01-01

Fintech business models based on distributed ledgers -- and their smart-contract variants in particular -- offer the prospect of democratizing access to faster, anywhere-accessible, lower cost, reliable-and-secure high-quality financial services. In addition to holding great, economically transformative promise, these business models pose new, little-studied risks and transaction costs. However, these risks and transaction costs are not evident during the demonstration and testing phases of d...

Sequential optimization and reliability assessment method for metal forming processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahai, Atul; Schramm, Uwe; Buranathiti, Thaweepat; Chen Wei; Cao Jian; Xia, Cedric Z.

2004-01-01

Uncertainty is inevitable in any design process. The uncertainty could be due to the variations in geometry of the part, material properties or due to the lack of knowledge about the phenomena being modeled itself. Deterministic design optimization does not take uncertainty into account and worst case scenario assumptions lead to vastly over conservative design. Probabilistic design, such as reliability-based design and robust design, offers tools for making robust and reliable decisions under the presence of uncertainty in the design process. Probabilistic design optimization often involves double-loop procedure for optimization and iterative probabilistic assessment. This results in high computational demand. The high computational demand can be reduced by replacing computationally intensive simulation models with less costly surrogate models and by employing Sequential Optimization and reliability assessment (SORA) method. The SORA method uses a single-loop strategy with a series of cycles of deterministic optimization and reliability assessment. The deterministic optimization and reliability assessment is decoupled in each cycle. This leads to quick improvement of design from one cycle to other and increase in computational efficiency. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA) method when applied to designing a sheet metal flanging process. Surrogate models are used as less costly approximations to the computationally expensive Finite Element simulations

Airline experience with reliability-centered maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matteson, T.D.

1985-01-01

Reliability-Centered Maintenance is a process for developing preventive maintenance programs. Its concepts evolved from the post WWII experience of the airline community. Its genesis was in a paper by F. Stanley Nowlan and Thomas D. Matteson of United Airlines for the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 1967. Its first application was to the Boeing 747. It has subsequently been adopted by the FAA and the Department of Defense and applied to many new transport and military aircraft. Its objective is applicable and effective preventive maintenance and it has proven to be a highly effective replacement for the prior intuitive processes for selective preventive maintenance tasks. It focuses on system functions, functional failures, then dominant failure modes and effects. It then uses a decision tree to classify failure criticality and identify applicable and effective tasks. The result is a program focused on maintaining inherent safety and reliability at minimum cost. (orig.)

Airline experience with reliability-centered maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matteson, T.D.

1985-11-01

Reliability-Centered Maintenance is a process for developing preventive maintenance programs. Its concepts evolved from the post WWII experience of the airline community. Its genesis was in a paper by F. Stanley Nowlan and Thomas D. Matteson of United Airlines for the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 1967. Its first application was to the Boeing 747. It has subsequently been adopted by the FAA and the Department of Defense and applied to many new transport and military aircraft. Its objective is applicable and effective preventive maintenance and it has proven to be a highly effective replacement for the prior intuitive processes for selective preventive maintenance tasks. It focuses on system functions, functional failures, then dominant failure modes and effects. It then uses a decision tree to classify failure criticality and identify applicable and effective tasks. The result is a program focused on maintaining inherent safety and reliability at minimum cost. (orig.).

Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Shiu, A.; Cheng, Y.S.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

2014-01-01

Hong Kong has almost perfect electricity reliability, the result of substantial investments ultimately financed by electricity consumers who may be willing to accept lower reliability in exchange for lower bills. But consumers with high outage costs are likely to reject the reliability reduction. Our ordered-logit regression analysis of the responses by 1876 households to a telephone survey conducted in June 2013 indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a statistically-significant preference for their existing service reliability and rate. Moreover, the average residential cost estimate for a 1-h outage is US$45 (HK$350), topping the estimates reported in 10 of the 11 studies published in the last 10 years. The policy implication is that absent additional compelling evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its service reliability. - Highlights: • Use a contingent valuation survey to obtain residential preferences for reliability. • Use an ordered logit analysis to estimate Hong Kong's residential outage costs. • Find high outage cost estimates that imply high reliability requirements. • Conclude that sans new evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its reliability

Cost-effectiveness thresholds: pros and cons.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertram, Melanie Y; Lauer, Jeremy A; De Joncheere, Kees; Edejer, Tessa; Hutubessy, Raymond; Kieny, Marie-Paule; Hill, Suzanne R

2016-12-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis is used to compare the costs and outcomes of alternative policy options. Each resulting cost-effectiveness ratio represents the magnitude of additional health gained per additional unit of resources spent. Cost-effectiveness thresholds allow cost-effectiveness ratios that represent good or very good value for money to be identified. In 2001, the World Health Organization's Commission on Macroeconomics in Health suggested cost-effectiveness thresholds based on multiples of a country's per-capita gross domestic product (GDP). In some contexts, in choosing which health interventions to fund and which not to fund, these thresholds have been used as decision rules. However, experience with the use of such GDP-based thresholds in decision-making processes at country level shows them to lack country specificity and this - in addition to uncertainty in the modelled cost-effectiveness ratios - can lead to the wrong decision on how to spend health-care resources. Cost-effectiveness information should be used alongside other considerations - e.g. budget impact and feasibility considerations - in a transparent decision-making process, rather than in isolation based on a single threshold value. Although cost-effectiveness ratios are undoubtedly informative in assessing value for money, countries should be encouraged to develop a context-specific process for decision-making that is supported by legislation, has stakeholder buy-in, for example the involvement of civil society organizations and patient groups, and is transparent, consistent and fair.

International lessons in new methods for grading and integrating cost effectiveness evidence into clinical practice guidelines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Antioch, Kathryn M; Drummond, Michael F; Niessen, Louis W

2017-01-01

Economic evidence is influential in health technology assessment world-wide. Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPG) can enable economists to include economic information on health care provision. Application of economic evidence in CPGs, and its integration into clinical practice and national decisio......-of-life, budget impact, cost-effective ratios, net benefits and disparities in access and outcomes. Priority setting remains essential and trade-off decisions between policy criteria can be based on MCDA, both in evidence based clinical medicine and in health planning....... that scores that checklist for grading studies, when assessing economic evidence. Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA) thresholds, opportunity cost and willingness-to-pay (WTP) are crucial issues for decision rules in CEA generally, including end-of-life therapies. Limitations of inter-rater reliability......, logistics, innovation price, price sensitivity, substitutes and complements, WTP, absenteeism and presentism. Supply issues may include economies of scale, efficiency changes, and return on investment. Involved equity and efficiency measures may include cost-of-illness, disease burden, quality...

Thermal Management and Reliability of Power Electronics and Electric Machines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narumanchi, Sreekant

2016-08-03

Increasing the number of electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) on America's roads has been identified as a strategy with near-term potential for dramatically decreasing the nation's dependence on oil -- by the U.S. Department of Energy, the federal cross-agency EV-Everywhere Challenge, and the automotive industry. Mass-market deployment will rely on meeting aggressive technical targets, including improved efficiency and reduced size, weight, and cost. Many of these advances will depend on optimization of thermal management. Effective thermal management is critical to improving the performance and ensuring the reliability of EDVs. Efficient heat removal makes higher power densities and lower operating temperatures possible, and in turn enables cost and size reductions. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), along with DOE and industry partners is working to develop cost-effective thermal management solutions to increase device and component power densities. In this presentation, the activities in recent years related to thermal management and reliability of automotive power electronics and electric machines will be presented.

Effects of feedback reliability on feedback-related brain activity: A feedback valuation account.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, Benjamin; Steinhauser, Marco

2018-04-06

Adaptive decision making relies on learning from feedback. Because feedback sometimes can be misleading, optimal learning requires that knowledge about the feedback's reliability be utilized to adjust feedback processing. Although previous research has shown that feedback reliability indeed influences feedback processing, the underlying mechanisms through which this is accomplished remain unclear. Here we propose that feedback processing is adjusted by the adaptive, top-down valuation of feedback. We assume that unreliable feedback is devalued relative to reliable feedback, thus reducing the reward prediction errors that underlie feedback-related brain activity and learning. A crucial prediction of this account is that the effects of feedback reliability are susceptible to contrast effects. That is, the effects of feedback reliability should be enhanced when both reliable and unreliable feedback are experienced within the same context, as compared to when only one level of feedback reliability is experienced. To evaluate this prediction, we measured the event-related potentials elicited by feedback in two experiments in which feedback reliability was varied either within or between blocks. We found that the fronto-central valence effect, a correlate of reward prediction errors during reinforcement learning, was reduced for unreliable feedback. But this result was obtained only when feedback reliability was varied within blocks, thus indicating a contrast effect. This suggests that the adaptive valuation of feedback is one mechanism underlying the effects of feedback reliability on feedback processing.

Non-periodic preventive maintenance with reliability thresholds for complex repairable systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Zu-Liang; Huang, Yeu-Shiang; Fang, Chih-Chiang

2015-01-01

In general, a non-periodic condition-based PM policy with different condition variables is often more effective than a periodic age-based policy for deteriorating complex repairable systems. In this study, system reliability is estimated and used as the condition variable, and three reliability-based PM models are then developed with consideration of different scenarios which can assist in evaluating the maintenance cost for each scenario. The proposed approach provides the optimal reliability thresholds and PM schedules in advance by which the system availability and quality can be ensured and the organizational resources can be well prepared and managed. The results of the sensitivity anlysis indicate that PM activities performed at a high reliability threshold can not only significantly improve the system availability but also efficiently extend the system lifetime, although such a PM strategy is more costly than that for a low reliabiltiy threshold. The optimal reliability threshold increases along with the number of PM activities to prevent future breakdowns caused by severe deterioration, and thus substantially reduces repair costs. - Highlights: • The PM problems for repairable deteriorating systems are formulated. • The structural properties of the proposed PM models are investigated. • The corresponding algorithms to find the optimal PM strategies are provided. • Imperfect PM activities are allowed to reduce the occurences of breakdowns. • Provide managers with insights about the critical factors in the planning stage

RodPilot{sup R} - The Innovative and Cost-Effective Digital Control Rod Drive Control System for PWRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baron, Clemens [AREVA NP GmbH, NLEE-G, Postfach 1199, 91001 Erlangen (Germany)

2008-07-01

With RodPilot, AREVA NP offers an innovative and cost-effective system for controlling control rods in Pressurized Water Reactors. RodPilot controls the three operating coils of the control rod drive mechanism (lift, moveable gripper and stationary gripper coil). The rods are inserted into or withdrawn from the core as required by the Reactor Control System. The system combines modern components, state-of-the-art logic and a proven electronic control rod drive control principle to provide enhanced reliability and lower maintenance costs. (author)

Reliability demonstration test planning: A three dimensional consideration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadav, Om Prakash; Singh, Nanua; Goel, Parveen S.

2006-01-01

Increasing customer demand for reliability, fierce market competition on time-to-market and cost, and highly reliable products are making reliability testing more challenging task. This paper presents a systematic approach for identifying critical elements (subsystems and components) of the system and deciding the types of test to be performed to demonstrate reliability. It decomposes the system into three dimensions (i.e. physical, functional and time) and identifies critical elements in the design by allocating system level reliability to each candidate. The decomposition of system level reliability is achieved by using criticality index. The numerical value of criticality index for each candidate is derived based on the information available from failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) document or warranty data from a prior system. It makes use of this information to develop reliability demonstration test plan for the identified (critical) failure mechanisms and physical elements. It also highlights the benefits of using prior information in order to locate critical spots in the design and in subsequent development of test plans. A case example is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach

Statin cost effectiveness in primary prevention: A systematic review of the recent cost-effectiveness literature in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitchell Aaron P

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The literature on the cost-effectiveness of statin drugs in primary prevention of coronary heart disease is complex. The objective of this study is to compare the disparate results of recent cost-effectiveness analyses of statins. Findings We conducted a systematic review of the literature on statin cost-effectiveness. The four studies that met inclusion criteria reported varying conclusions about the cost-effectiveness of statin treatment, without a clear consensus as to whether statins are cost-effective for primary prevention. However, after accounting for each study’s assumptions about statin costs, we found substantial agreement among the studies. Studies that assumed statins to be more expensive found them to be less cost-effective, and vice-versa. Furthermore, treatment of low-risk groups became cost-effective as statins became less expensive. Conclusions Drug price is the primary determinant of statin cost-effectiveness within a given risk group. As more statin drugs become generic, patients at low risk for coronary disease may be treated cost-effectively. Though many factors must be weighed in any medical decision, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, statins may now be considered an appropriate therapy for many patients at low risk for heart disease.

Seasonal influenza vaccination for children in Thailand: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Meeyai, Aronrag; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Kotirum, Surachai; Kulpeng, Wantanee; Putthasri, Weerasak; Cooper, Ben S; Teerawattananon, Yot

2015-05-01

patterns between age groups. Vaccinating school-aged children with LAIV is likely to be cost-effective in Thailand in the short term, though the long-term consequences of such a policy cannot be reliably predicted given current knowledge of influenza epidemiology and immunology. Our work provides a coherent framework that can be used for similar analyses in other low- and middle-income countries.

Trade-offs in size, quantity and reliability of generalized nuclear power plants: a preliminary assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.

1985-04-01

An approximate method is used to estimate the effects of system reliability on optimal nuclear plant size, taking into account also scale factors and manufacturing learning curve slopes. The method is used to estimate the additional effective capability gained by adding units of different sizes to an existing electrical system. The number of additional units proves to be sensitive to forced outrage rate, estimated here from trends in US light-water reactors from 1971 to 1980. The relative cost of added units ranging in size from 200 to 800 MW is determined as a function of the parameters: scale factor and learning curve slope. The results generally corrobate the trends found in an earlier study in which the effect of reliability on required installed capacity was not explicitly considered. Optimal plant size decreases with weaker scale effects and stronger learning curve effects. Reliability considerations further reduce the optimal plant size, but the relative reduction is apparently not as great with steeper learning curves. This is a plausible finding inasmuch as the reduction in numbers of additional units due to reliability considerations will affect cost most where the learning curve is steepest. 9 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

Maximally reliable Markov chains under energy constraints.

Science.gov (United States)

Escola, Sean; Eisele, Michael; Miller, Kenneth; Paninski, Liam

2009-07-01

Signal-to-noise ratios in physical systems can be significantly degraded if the outputs of the systems are highly variable. Biological processes for which highly stereotyped signal generations are necessary features appear to have reduced their signal variabilities by employing multiple processing steps. To better understand why this multistep cascade structure might be desirable, we prove that the reliability of a signal generated by a multistate system with no memory (i.e., a Markov chain) is maximal if and only if the system topology is such that the process steps irreversibly through each state, with transition rates chosen such that an equal fraction of the total signal is generated in each state. Furthermore, our result indicates that by increasing the number of states, it is possible to arbitrarily increase the reliability of the system. In a physical system, however, an energy cost is associated with maintaining irreversible transitions, and this cost increases with the number of such transitions (i.e., the number of states). Thus, an infinite-length chain, which would be perfectly reliable, is infeasible. To model the effects of energy demands on the maximally reliable solution, we numerically optimize the topology under two distinct energy functions that penalize either irreversible transitions or incommunicability between states, respectively. In both cases, the solutions are essentially irreversible linear chains, but with upper bounds on the number of states set by the amount of available energy. We therefore conclude that a physical system for which signal reliability is important should employ a linear architecture, with the number of states (and thus the reliability) determined by the intrinsic energy constraints of the system.

Developing Cost-Effective Field Assessments of Carbon Stocks in Human-Modified Tropical Forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Berenguer, Erika; Gardner, Toby A; Ferreira, Joice; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Camargo, Plínio B; Cerri, Carlos E; Durigan, Mariana; Oliveira Junior, Raimundo C; Vieira, Ima C G; Barlow, Jos

2015-01-01

Across the tropics, there is a growing financial investment in activities that aim to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, such as REDD+. However, most tropical countries lack on-the-ground capacity to conduct reliable and replicable assessments of forest carbon stocks, undermining their ability to secure long-term carbon finance for forest conservation programs. Clear guidance on how to reduce the monetary and time costs of field assessments of forest carbon can help tropical countries to overcome this capacity gap. Here we provide such guidance for cost-effective one-off field assessments of forest carbon stocks. We sampled a total of eight components from four different carbon pools (i.e. aboveground, dead wood, litter and soil) in 224 study plots distributed across two regions of eastern Amazon. For each component we estimated survey costs, contribution to total forest carbon stocks and sensitivity to disturbance. Sampling costs varied thirty-one-fold between the most expensive component, soil, and the least, leaf litter. Large live stems (≥10 cm DBH), which represented only 15% of the overall sampling costs, was by far the most important component to be assessed, as it stores the largest amount of carbon and is highly sensitive to disturbance. If large stems are not taxonomically identified, costs can be reduced by a further 51%, while incurring an error in aboveground carbon estimates of only 5% in primary forests, but 31% in secondary forests. For rapid assessments, necessary to help prioritize locations for carbon- conservation activities, sampling of stems ≥20cm DBH without taxonomic identification can predict with confidence (R2 = 0.85) whether an area is relatively carbon-rich or carbon-poor-an approach that is 74% cheaper than sampling and identifying all the stems ≥10cm DBH. We use these results to evaluate the reliability of forest carbon stock estimates provided by the IPCC and FAO when applied to human-modified forests

Developing Cost-Effective Field Assessments of Carbon Stocks in Human-Modified Tropical Forests.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erika Berenguer

Full Text Available Across the tropics, there is a growing financial investment in activities that aim to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, such as REDD+. However, most tropical countries lack on-the-ground capacity to conduct reliable and replicable assessments of forest carbon stocks, undermining their ability to secure long-term carbon finance for forest conservation programs. Clear guidance on how to reduce the monetary and time costs of field assessments of forest carbon can help tropical countries to overcome this capacity gap. Here we provide such guidance for cost-effective one-off field assessments of forest carbon stocks. We sampled a total of eight components from four different carbon pools (i.e. aboveground, dead wood, litter and soil in 224 study plots distributed across two regions of eastern Amazon. For each component we estimated survey costs, contribution to total forest carbon stocks and sensitivity to disturbance. Sampling costs varied thirty-one-fold between the most expensive component, soil, and the least, leaf litter. Large live stems (≥10 cm DBH, which represented only 15% of the overall sampling costs, was by far the most important component to be assessed, as it stores the largest amount of carbon and is highly sensitive to disturbance. If large stems are not taxonomically identified, costs can be reduced by a further 51%, while incurring an error in aboveground carbon estimates of only 5% in primary forests, but 31% in secondary forests. For rapid assessments, necessary to help prioritize locations for carbon- conservation activities, sampling of stems ≥20cm DBH without taxonomic identification can predict with confidence (R2 = 0.85 whether an area is relatively carbon-rich or carbon-poor-an approach that is 74% cheaper than sampling and identifying all the stems ≥10cm DBH. We use these results to evaluate the reliability of forest carbon stock estimates provided by the IPCC and FAO when applied to human

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of fissure sealants in children and adolescents with a high caries risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neusser, Silke

2014-10-01

Full Text Available [english] In Germany, the application of resin-based pits and fissures sealants on the occlusal surfaces of permanent molars is part of individual prophylaxis for children and adolescents between six and 18 years. The individual prophylaxis is covered by the Statutory Health Insurance since 1993.The report addresses questions on medical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, as well as ethical, social, and legal implications of pit and fissure sealants in preventing dental caries for children and adolescents at high caries risk. The results of the studies indicate a protective effect of pit and fissure sealants, particularly for children and adolescents at high caries risk. Additionally, the economic evaluation suggests a tendency for cost savings in this group. Nevertheless, a general expansion of the intervention cannot be recommended. All studies show a risk of bias in favour of pit and fissure sealing and a limited transferability to the German health care system. Studies included in the economic evaluation revealed methodological flaws. Both the economic models and primary studies do not provide reliable results.

10 CFR 436.18 - Measuring cost-effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Measuring cost-effectiveness. 436.18 Section 436.18 Energy... Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.18 Measuring cost-effectiveness. (a) In accordance with this section, each Federal agency shall measure cost-effectiveness by combining cost data established under...

The effect of span length and girder type on bridge costs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Batikha Mustafa

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Bridges have an important role in impacting the civilization, growth and economy of cities from ancient time until these days due to their function in reducing transportation cost and time. Therefore, development of bridges has been a knowledge domain in civil engineering studies in terms of their types and construction materials to confirm a reliable, safe, economic design and construction. Girder-bridge of concrete deck and I-beam girder has been used widely for short and medium span bridges because of ease and low-cost of fabrication. However, many theoretical and practical investigations are still undertaken regarding the type of beam girder; i.e steel composite or prestressed concrete. This paper evaluates the effect of bridge span and the type of girder on the capital cost and life cycle costs of bridges. Three types of girders were investigated in this research: steel composite, pre-tensioned pre-stressed concrete and post-tensioned pre-stressed concrete. The structural design was analyzed for 5 span lengths: 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40m. Then, the capital construction cost was accounted for 15 bridges according to each span and construction materials. Moreover, the maintenance required for 50 years of bridge life was evaluated and built up as whole life costs for each bridge. As a result of this study, the influence of both span length and type of girder on initial construction cost and maintenance whole life costs were assessed to support the decision makers and designers in the selection process for the optimum solution of girder bridges.

Quality assurance and reliability in the Japanese electronics industry

Science.gov (United States)

Pecht, Michael; Boulton, William R.

1995-02-01

Quality and reliability are two attributes required for all Japanese products, although the JTEC panel found these attributes to be secondary to customer cost requirements. While our Japanese hosts gave presentations on the challenges of technology, cost, and miniaturization, quality and reliability were infrequently the focus of our discussions. Quality and reliability were assumed to be sufficient to meet customer needs. Fujitsu's slogan, 'quality built-in, with cost and performance as prime consideration,' illustrates this point. Sony's definition of a next-generation product is 'one that is going to be half the size and half the price at the same performance of the existing one'. Quality and reliability are so integral to Japan's electronics industry that they need no new emphasis.

Equipment reliability process improvement and preventive maintenance optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darragi, M.; Georges, A.; Vaillancourt, R.; Komljenovic, D.; Croteau, M.

2004-01-01

The Gentilly-2 Nuclear Power Plant wants to optimize its preventive maintenance program through an Integrated Equipment Reliability Process. All equipment reliability related activities should be reviewed and optimized in a systematic approach especially for aging plants such as G2. This new approach has to be founded on best practices methods with the purpose of the rationalization of the preventive maintenance program and the performance monitoring of on-site systems, structures and components (SSC). A rational preventive maintenance strategy is based on optimized task scopes and frequencies depending on their applicability, critical effects on system safety and plant availability as well as cost-effectiveness. Preventive maintenance strategy efficiency is systematically monitored through degradation indicators. (author)

On the Path to SunShot - The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodhouse, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jones-Albertus, Rebecca [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Feldman, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fu, Ran [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Horowitz, Kelsey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chung, Donald [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jordan, Dirk [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-05-01

Although tremendous progress has been made in reducing the cost of PV systems, additional LCOE reductions of 40%–50% between 2015 and 2020 will be required to reach the SunShot Initiative’s targets (see Woodhouse et al. 2016). Understanding the tradeoffs between installed prices and other PV system characteristics—such as module efficiency, module degradation rate, and system lifetime—are vital. For example, with 29%-efficient modules and high reliability (a 50-year lifetime and a 0.2%/year module degradation rate), a residential PV system could achieve the SunShot LCOE goal with modules priced at almost $1.20/W. But change the lifetime to 10 years and the degradation rate to 2%/year, and the system would need those very high-efficiency modules at zero cost to achieve the same LCOE. Although these examples are extreme, they serve to illustrate the wide range of technological combinations that could help drive PV toward the LCOE goals. SunShot’s PV roadmaps illustrate specific potential pathways to the target cost reductions.

Alternative Strategies to Reduce Maternal Mortality in India: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Goldie, Sue J.; Sweet, Steve; Carvalho, Natalie; Natchu, Uma Chandra Mouli; Hu, Delphine

2010-01-01

Background Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India. Methods and Findings Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended) and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants). Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold (∼23%–35%) without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC). An integrated and stepwise approach was identified that would ultimately

Alternative strategies to reduce maternal mortality in India: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sue J Goldie

2010-04-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants. Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold ( approximately 23%-35% without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC. An integrated and stepwise approach was

Alternative strategies to reduce maternal mortality in India: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldie, Sue J; Sweet, Steve; Carvalho, Natalie; Natchu, Uma Chandra Mouli; Hu, Delphine

2010-04-20

Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India. Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended) and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants). Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold ( approximately 23%-35%) without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC). An integrated and stepwise approach was identified that would ultimately prevent four of five

Development and application of a cost-benefit framework for energy reliability. Using probabilistic methods in network planning and regulation to enhance social welfare. The N-1 rule

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nooij, Michiel de; Baarsma, Barbara; Bloemhof, Gabriel; Dijk, Harold; Slootweg, Han

2010-01-01

Although electricity is crucial to many activities in developed societies, guaranteeing a maximum reliability of supply to end-users is extremely costly. This situation gives rise to a trade-off between the costs and benefits of reliability. The Dutch government has responded to this trade-off by changing the rule stipulating that electricity networks must be able to maintain supply even if one component fails (known as the N-1 rule), even in maintenance situations. This rule was changed by adding the phrase 'unless the costs exceed the benefits.' We have developed a cost-benefit framework for the implementation and application of this new rule. The framework requires input on failure probability, the cost of supply interruptions to end-users and the cost of investments. A case study of the Dutch grid shows that the method is indeed practicable and that it is highly unlikely that N-1 during maintenance will enhance welfare in the Netherlands. Therefore, including the limitation 'unless the costs exceed the benefits' in the rule has been a sensible policy for the Netherlands, and would also be a sensible policy for other countries. (author)

Power system reliability impacts of wind generation and operational reserve requirements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Gil

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Due to its variability, wind generation integration presents a significant challenge to power system operators in order to maintain adequate reliability levels while ensuring least cost operation. This paper explores the trade-off between the benefits associated to a higher wind penetration and the additional operational reserve requirements that they impose. Such exploration is valued in terms of its effect on power system reliability, measured as an amount of unserved energy. The paper also focuses on how changing the Value of Lost Load (VoLL can be used to attain different reliability targets, and how wind power penetration and the diversity of the wind energy resource will impact quality of supply (in terms of instances of unserved energy. The evaluation of different penetrations of wind power generation, different wind speed profiles, wind resource diversity, and different operational reserve requirements, is conducted on the Chilean Northern Interconnected System (SING using statistical modeling of wind speed time series and computer simulation through a 24-hour ahead unit commitment algorithm and a Monte Carlo simulation scheme. Results for the SING suggest that while wind generation can significantly reduce generation costs, it can also imply higher security costs to reach acceptable reliability levels.

Cost-Effective Fuel Treatment Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Kreitler, J.; Thompson, M.; Vaillant, N.

2014-12-01

The cost of fighting large wildland fires in the western United States has grown dramatically over the past decade. This trend will likely continue with growth of the WUI into fire prone ecosystems, dangerous fuel conditions from decades of fire suppression, and a potentially increasing effect from prolonged drought and climate change. Fuel treatments are often considered the primary pre-fire mechanism to reduce the exposure of values at risk to wildland fire, and a growing suite of fire models and tools are employed to prioritize where treatments could mitigate wildland fire damages. Assessments using the likelihood and consequence of fire are critical because funds are insufficient to reduce risk on all lands needing treatment, therefore prioritization is required to maximize the effectiveness of fuel treatment budgets. Cost-effectiveness, doing the most good per dollar, would seem to be an important fuel treatment metric, yet studies or plans that prioritize fuel treatments using costs or cost-effectiveness measures are absent from the literature. Therefore, to explore the effect of using costs in fuel treatment planning we test four prioritization algorithms designed to reduce risk in a case study examining fuel treatments on the Sisters Ranger District of central Oregon. For benefits we model sediment retention and standing biomass, and measure the effectiveness of each algorithm by comparing the differences among treatment and no treat alternative scenarios. Our objective is to maximize the averted loss of net benefits subject to a representative fuel treatment budget. We model costs across the study landscape using the My Fuel Treatment Planner software, tree list data, local mill prices, and GIS-measured site characteristics. We use fire simulations to generate burn probabilities, and estimate fire intensity as conditional flame length at each pixel. Two prioritization algorithms target treatments based on cost-effectiveness and show improvements over those

Plasma metanephrines: a novel and cost-effective test for pheochromocytoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Eisenhofer

2000-10-01

Full Text Available Pheochromocytomas are rare chromaffin cell tumors that nevertheless must be excluded in large numbers of patients who develop sustained or episodic hypertension as well as in many others with suggestive symptoms or with a familial history of pheochromocytoma. Diagnosis of pheochromocytoma depends importantly on biochemical evidence of excess catecholamine production by a tumor. Imperfect sensitivity and specificity of commonly available biochemical tests and the low incidence of the tumor among the tested population mean that considerable time and effort can be expended in confirming or ruling out pheochromocytoma in patients where the tumor is suspected. Measurements of plasma free metanephrines provide a superior test compared to other available tests for diagnosis of pheochromocytoma. In particular, the high sensitivity of plasma free metanephrines means that a normal test result reliably excludes all but the smallest of pheochromocytomas so that no other tests are necessary. Measurements of plasma free metanephrines, when systematically combined with other diagnostic procedures outlined in this review, provide a more efficient, reliable and cost-effective approach for diagnosis of pheochromocytoma than offered by previously available approaches.

Effect of imperfect knowledge of hazards on the reliability of concrete face rockfill dam and breakwater

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. De León–Escobedo

2008-07-01

Full Text Available A formulation to treat aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, in a separate way, on infrastructures is proposed and applied to a dam and a breakwater in Mexico. The purpose of that is to de termine 2nd order bounds on the reliability estimation due to the in complete knowledge of some design parameters. These bounds provide a quantitative basis for risk management according to the risk–aversion of owners and operators of the infrastructure. Also, acceptable values of reliability, are assessed in terms of consequences costs, and an initial cost curve for a breakwater is presented, as they may contribute to enhance the decision making process.The in corporation of epistemic uncertainty makes the reliability index to become a random variable and its his to gram is obtained to estimate percentiles as a means to measure a new additional room for decisions as compared to the traditionally used mean value of the reliability. Conservative decisions are illustrated for design and assessment of structures like a dam and a breakwater.The procedure involves a double loop of Monte Carlo simulation and represents a basis for the optimal design and risk management of dams and breakwaters.

Of Iron or Wax? The Effect of Economic Integration on the Reliability of Military Alliances***

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Vobolevičius Vincentas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyze what determines if a military alliance represents a credible commitment. More precisely, we verify if economic integration of military allies increases the deterrent capability of an alliance, and its effectiveness in the case of third-party aggression. We propose that growing intra-alliance trade creates audience costs and sunk costs for political leaders who venture to violate conditions of an alliance treaty. Therefore, intensive trade can be regarded as a signal of allies’ determination to aid one another in the case of third party aggression, and a deterrent of such aggression. Regression analysis of bilateral fixed-term mutual defense agreements concluded between 1945 and 2003 reveals that large trade volumes among military allies indeed reduce the likelihood that their political leaders will breach alliance commitments. Intra-alliance trade also displays a number of interesting interaction effects with the other common predictors of military alliance reliability such as shared allies’ interests and values, symmetry of their military capabilities, their geographic location and domestic political institutions.

Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chou, Jui-Sheng; Le, Thanh-Son

2011-01-01

Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: →A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. → Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. → A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. → The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chou, Jui-Sheng, E-mail: jschou@mail.ntust.edu.tw [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Le, Thanh-Son [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)

2011-10-15

Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: > A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. > Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. > A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. > The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

Offshore wind turbines reliability, availability and maintenance

CERN Document Server

Tavner, Peter

2012-01-01

The first book to specifically focus on offshore wind turbine technology and which addresses practically wind turbine reliability and availability. The book draws on the author's experience of power generation reliability and availability and the condition monitoring of that plant to describe the problems facing the developers of offshore wind farms and the solutions available to them to raise availability, reduce cost of energy and improve through life cost.

Marginal Cost Pricing in a World without Perfect Competition: Implications for Electricity Markets with High Shares of Low Marginal Cost Resources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-12-02

A common approach to regulating electricity is through auction-based competitive wholesale markets. The goal of this approach is to provide a reliable supply of power at the lowest reasonable cost to the consumer. This necessitates market structures and operating rules that ensure revenue sufficiency for all generators needed for resource adequacy purposes. Wholesale electricity markets employ marginal-cost pricing to provide cost-effective dispatch such that resources are compensated for their operational costs. However, marginal-cost pricing alone cannot guarantee cost recovery outside of perfect competition, and electricity markets have at least six attributes that preclude them from functioning as perfectly competitive markets. These attributes include market power, externalities, public good attributes, lack of storage, wholesale price caps, and ineffective demand curve. Until (and unless) these failures are ameliorated, some form of corrective action(s) will be necessary to improve market efficiency so that prices can correctly reflect the needed level of system reliability. Many of these options necessarily involve some form of administrative or out-of-market actions, such as scarcity pricing, capacity payments, bilateral or other out-of-market contracts, or some hybrid combination. A key focus with these options is to create a connection between the electricity market and long-term reliability/loss-of-load expectation targets, which are inherently disconnected in the native markets because of the aforementioned market failures. The addition of variable generation resources can exacerbate revenue sufficiency and resource adequacy concerns caused by these underlying market failures. Because variable generation resources have near-zero marginal costs, they effectively suppress energy prices and reduce the capacity factors of conventional generators through the merit-order effect in the simplest case of a convex market; non-convexities can also suppress prices.

Product reliability and thin-film photovoltaics

Science.gov (United States)

Gaston, Ryan; Feist, Rebekah; Yeung, Simon; Hus, Mike; Bernius, Mark; Langlois, Marc; Bury, Scott; Granata, Jennifer; Quintana, Michael; Carlson, Carl; Sarakakis, Georgios; Ogden, Douglas; Mettas, Adamantios

2009-08-01

Despite significant growth in photovoltaics (PV) over the last few years, only approximately 1.07 billion kWhr of electricity is estimated to have been generated from PV in the US during 2008, or 0.27% of total electrical generation. PV market penetration is set for a paradigm shift, as fluctuating hydrocarbon prices and an acknowledgement of the environmental impacts associated with their use, combined with breakthrough new PV technologies, such as thin-film and BIPV, are driving the cost of energy generated with PV to parity or cost advantage versus more traditional forms of energy generation. In addition to reaching cost parity with grid supplied power, a key to the long-term success of PV as a viable energy alternative is the reliability of systems in the field. New technologies may or may not have the same failure modes as previous technologies. Reliability testing and product lifetime issues continue to be one of the key bottlenecks in the rapid commercialization of PV technologies today. In this paper, we highlight the critical need for moving away from relying on traditional qualification and safety tests as a measure of reliability and focus instead on designing for reliability and its integration into the product development process. A drive towards quantitative predictive accelerated testing is emphasized and an industrial collaboration model addressing reliability challenges is proposed.

On the reliability of spacecraft swarms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engelen, S.; Gill, E.K.A.; Verhoeven, C.J.M.

2012-01-01

Satellite swarms, consisting of a large number of identical, miniaturized and simple satellites, are claimed to provide an implementation for specific space missions which require high reliability. However, a consistent model of how reliability and availability on mission level is linked to cost-

How rebates, copayments, and administration costs affect the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis therapies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferko, Nicole C; Borisova, Natalie; Airia, Parisa; Grima, Daniel T; Thompson, Melissa F

2012-11-01

Because of rising drug expenditures, cost considerations have become essential, necessitating the requirement for cost-effectiveness analyses for managed care organizations (MCOs). The study objective is to examine the impact of various drug-cost components, in addition to wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), on the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis therapies. A Markov model of osteoporosis was used to exemplify different drug cost scenarios. We examined the effect of varying rebates for oral bisphosphonates--risedronate and ibandronate--as well as considering the impact of varying copayments and administration costs for intravenous zoledronate. The population modeled was 1,000 American women, > or = 50 years with osteoporosis. Patients were followed for 1 year to reflect an annual budget review of formularies by MCOs. The cost of therapy was based on an adjusted WAC, and is referred to as net drug cost. The total annual cost incurred by an MCO for each drug regimen was calculated using the net drug cost and fracture cost. We estimated cost on a quality adjusted life year (QALY) basis. When considering different rebates, results for risedronate versus ibandronate vary from cost-savings (i.e., costs less and more effective) to approximately $70,000 per QALY. With no risedronate rebate, an ibandronate rebate of approximately 65% is required before cost per QALY surpasses $50,000. With rebates greater than 25% for risedronate, irrespective of ibandronate rebates, results become cost-saving. Results also showed the magnitude of cost savings to the MCO varied by as much as 65% when considering no administration cost and the highest coinsurance rate for zoledronate. Our study showed that cost-effectiveness varies considerably when factors in addition to the WAC are considered. This paper provides recommendations for pharmaceutical manufacturers and MCOs when developing and interpreting such analyses.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of delivering intermittent preventive treatment through schools in western Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jukes Matthew CH

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Awareness of the potential impact of malaria among school-age children has stimulated investigation into malaria interventions that can be delivered through schools. However, little evidence is available on the costs and cost-effectiveness of intervention options. This paper evaluates the costs and cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment (IPT as delivered by teachers in schools in western Kenya. Methods Information on actual drug and non-drug associated costs were collected from expenditure and salary records, government budgets and interviews with key district and national officials. Effectiveness data were derived from a cluster-randomised-controlled trial of IPT where a single dose of sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine and three daily doses of amodiaquine were provided three times in year (once termly. Both financial and economic costs were estimated from a provider perspective, and effectiveness was estimated in terms of anaemia cases averted. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of key assumptions on estimated cost-effectiveness. Results The delivery of IPT by teachers was estimated to cost US$ 1.88 per child treated per year, with drug and teacher training costs constituting the largest cost components. Set-up costs accounted for 13.2% of overall costs (equivalent to US$ 0.25 per child whilst recurrent costs accounted for 86.8% (US$ 1.63 per child per year. The estimated cost per anaemia case averted was US$ 29.84 and the cost per case of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia averted was US$ 5.36, respectively. The cost per case of anaemia averted ranged between US$ 24.60 and 40.32 when the prices of antimalarial drugs and delivery costs were varied. Cost-effectiveness was most influenced by effectiveness of IPT and the background prevalence of anaemia. In settings where 30% and 50% of schoolchildren were anaemic, cost-effectiveness ratios were US$ 12.53 and 7.52, respectively. Conclusion This

Using Bayesian belief networks for reliability management : construction and evaluation: a step by step approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Houben, M.J.H.A.

2010-01-01

In the capital goods industry, there is a growing need to manage reliability throughout the product development process. A number of trends can be identified that have a strong effect on the way in which reliability prediction and management is approached, i.e.: - The lifecycle costs approach that

Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Griffith, Candice D. [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States); Mahadevan, Sankaran, E-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States)

2011-11-15

The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: >We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. > We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. > We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

Position Mooring Control Based on a Structural Reliability Criterion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fang, Shaoji; Leira, Bernt J.; Blanke, Mogens

2013-01-01

is achieved using structural reliability indices in a cost function, where both the mean mooring-line tension and dynamic effects are considered. An optimal set-point is automatically produced without need for manual interaction. The parameters of the extreme value distribution are calculated on-line thereby...... mooring lines simultaneously from exceeding a stress threshold, this paper suggests a new algorithm to determine the reference position and an associated control system. The safety of each line is assessed through a structural reliability index. A reference position where all mooring lines are safe...

Cost-effectiveness Analysis for Technology Acquisition.

Science.gov (United States)

Chakravarty, A; Naware, S S

2008-01-01

In a developing country with limited resources, it is important to utilize the total cost visibility approach over the entire life-cycle of the technology and then analyse alternative options for acquiring technology. The present study analysed cost-effectiveness of an "In-house" magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan facility of a large service hospital against outsourcing possibilities. Cost per unit scan was calculated by operating costing method and break-even volume was calculated. Then life-cycle cost analysis was performed to enable total cost visibility of the MRI scan in both "In-house" and "outsourcing of facility" configuration. Finally, cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to identify the more acceptable decision option. Total cost for performing unit MRI scan was found to be Rs 3,875 for scans without contrast and Rs 4,129 with contrast. On life-cycle cost analysis, net present value (NPV) of the "In-house" configuration was found to be Rs-(4,09,06,265) while that of "outsourcing of facility" configuration was Rs-(5,70,23,315). Subsequently, cost-effectiveness analysis across eight Figures of Merit showed the "In-house" facility to be the more acceptable option for the system. Every decision for acquiring high-end technology must be subjected to life-cycle cost analysis.

Impact of generic alendronate cost on the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening and treatment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smita Nayak

Full Text Available Since alendronate became available in generic form in the Unites States in 2008, its price has been decreasing. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of alendronate cost on the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening and treatment in postmenopausal women.Microsimulation cost-effectiveness model of osteoporosis screening and treatment for U.S. women age 65 and older. We assumed screening initiation at age 65 with central dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA, and alendronate treatment for individuals with osteoporosis; with a comparator of "no screening" and treatment only after fracture occurrence. We evaluated annual alendronate costs of $20 through $800; outcome measures included fractures; nursing home admission; medication adverse events; death; costs; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs in 2010 U.S. dollars per QALY gained. A lifetime time horizon was used, and direct costs were included. Base-case and sensitivity analyses were performed.Base-case analysis results showed that at annual alendronate costs of $200 or less, osteoporosis screening followed by treatment was cost-saving, resulting in lower total costs than no screening as well as more QALYs (10.6 additional quality-adjusted life-days. When assuming alendronate costs of $400 through $800, screening and treatment resulted in greater lifetime costs than no screening but was highly cost-effective, with ICERs ranging from $714 per QALY gained through $13,902 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening followed by alendronate treatment was robust to joint input parameter estimate variation at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY at all alendronate costs evaluated.Osteoporosis screening followed by alendronate treatment is effective and highly cost-effective for postmenopausal women across a range of alendronate costs, and may be cost

ESCAF - Failure simulation and reliability calculation device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laviron, A.; Berard, C.; Quenee, R.

1979-01-01

Reliability studies of nuclear power plant safety functions have, up to now, required the use of large computers. As they are of universal use, these big machines are not very well adapted to deal with reliability problems at low cost. ESCAF has been developed to be substituted for large computers in order to save time and money. ESCAF is a small electronic device which can be used in connection with a minicomputer. It allows to perform complex system reliability analysis (qualitative and quantitative) and to study critical element influences such as common cause failures. In this paper, the device is described and its features and abilities are outlined: easy to implement, swift running, low working cost. Its application range concerns all cases when a good reliability is needed

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.

A Review on VSC-HVDC Reliability Modeling and Evaluation Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, L.; Tang, Q.; Li, T.; Wang, Y.; Song, F.

2017-05-01

With the fast development of power electronics, voltage-source converter (VSC) HVDC technology presents cost-effective ways for bulk power transmission. An increasing number of VSC-HVDC projects has been installed worldwide. Their reliability affects the profitability of the system and therefore has a major impact on the potential investors. In this paper, an overview of the recent advances in the area of reliability evaluation for VSC-HVDC systems is provided. Taken into account the latest multi-level converter topology, the VSC-HVDC system is categorized into several sub-systems and the reliability data for the key components is discussed based on sources with academic and industrial backgrounds. The development of reliability evaluation methodologies is reviewed and the issues surrounding the different computation approaches are briefly analysed. A general VSC-HVDC reliability evaluation procedure is illustrated in this paper.

Test-retest reliability and practice effects of the Wechsler Memory Scale-III.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Ada H Y; Humphreys, Michael; Byrne, Gerard J; Pachana, Nancy A

2012-09-01

Although serial administration of cognitive tests is increasingly common, there is a paucity of research on test-retest reliabilities and practice effects, both of which are important for evaluating changes in functioning. Reliability is generally conceptualized as involving short-lasting changes in performance. However, when repeated testing occurs over a period of years, there will be some longer lasting effects. The implications of these longer lasting effects and practice effects on reliability were examined in the context of repeated administrations of the Wechsler Memory Scale-III in 339 community-dwelling women aged 40-79 years over 2 to 7 years. The results showed that Logical Memory and Verbal Paired Associates subtests were consistently the most reliable subtests across the age cohorts. The magnitude of practice effects varied as a function of subtests and age. The largest practice effects were found in the youngest age cohort, especially on the Faces, Logical Memory, and Verbal Paired Associates subtests. ©2012 The British Psychological Society.

Modern Methods for Cost Management in Construction Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mesároš Peter

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Cost management should be seen as an essential function of enterprises which perform their activities in current market environment. One of the main factors affecting the level of achieved profit and favourable market position is cost structure. The company's ability to obtain necessary and reliable information on their own cost, subsequent processing and effective cost management is crucial for achieving success. This study focuses on cost management and the use of modern methods of cost management in construction enterprises. The aim of this paper is to identify approaches to cost management in Slovak construction enterprises, based on own empirical research.

Bayesian models for cost-effectiveness analysis in the presence of structural zero costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Baio, Gianluca

2014-05-20

Bayesian modelling for cost-effectiveness data has received much attention in both the health economics and the statistical literature, in recent years. Cost-effectiveness data are characterised by a relatively complex structure of relationships linking a suitable measure of clinical benefit (e.g. quality-adjusted life years) and the associated costs. Simplifying assumptions, such as (bivariate) normality of the underlying distributions, are usually not granted, particularly for the cost variable, which is characterised by markedly skewed distributions. In addition, individual-level data sets are often characterised by the presence of structural zeros in the cost variable. Hurdle models can be used to account for the presence of excess zeros in a distribution and have been applied in the context of cost data. We extend their application to cost-effectiveness data, defining a full Bayesian specification, which consists of a model for the individual probability of null costs, a marginal model for the costs and a conditional model for the measure of effectiveness (given the observed costs). We presented the model using a working example to describe its main features. © 2013 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis with Influence Diagrams.

Science.gov (United States)

Arias, M; Díez, F J

2015-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is used increasingly in medicine to determine whether the health benefit of an intervention is worth the economic cost. Decision trees, the standard decision modeling technique for non-temporal domains, can only perform CEA for very small problems. To develop a method for CEA in problems involving several dozen variables. We explain how to build influence diagrams (IDs) that explicitly represent cost and effectiveness. We propose an algorithm for evaluating cost-effectiveness IDs directly, i.e., without expanding an equivalent decision tree. The evaluation of an ID returns a set of intervals for the willingness to pay - separated by cost-effectiveness thresholds - and, for each interval, the cost, the effectiveness, and the optimal intervention. The algorithm that evaluates the ID directly is in general much more efficient than the brute-force method, which is in turn more efficient than the expansion of an equivalent decision tree. Using OpenMarkov, an open-source software tool that implements this algorithm, we have been able to perform CEAs on several IDs whose equivalent decision trees contain millions of branches. IDs can perform CEA on large problems that cannot be analyzed with decision trees.

Effect of Asymmetric Layout of IGBT Modules on Reliability of Power Inverters in Motor Drive System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Choi, Uimin; Vernica, Ionut; Blaabjerg, Frede

2018-01-01

An IGBT module has typically multiple power devices for some technical and cost advantages. This kind of configurations could have an asymmetric layout, which may lead to different thermal loadings and thereby lifetime difference of the power devices. Therefore, both the power rating and lifetime...... of inverters are limited by the most stressed devices. However, generally common data is provided for all devices and this may cause improper design of the inverters in terms of power rating and lifetime. In this paper, the effect of an asymmetric layout of IGBT modules on the reliability of power inverters...

Analysis of Cardiovascular Diseases Costs and Their Effective Factors in Tabriz Hospitalized Patients, 2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imani

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background Cardiovascular diseases are the most important chronic diseases with significant negative effects on the individuals’ quality of life and communities’ economic productivity. Objectives The present study aimed to analyze the costs of cardiovascular diseases and identify the related factors in hospitalized patients of Tabriz Shahid Madani hospital in 2015. Patients and Methods This paper was a cross-sectional study. Cost information was obtained by a bottom-up approach from the patients and their families’ perspective. A number of 285 patients were randomly selected to participate in the study. For data collection, the study deployed a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity and reliability were confirmed by statistical tests. First, the collected data were analyzed using descriptive methods. And then, the researchers used t-test and ANOVA to analyze the relationship between demographic variables and the different types of cost. Tukey test was used to compare differences between groups groups, the researchers used. Results The Study findings showed that the total cost of cardiovascular diseases was 13,074,700 Rials (US$462 per patient. The details of the costs of cardiovascular diseases also showed that direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, and indirect costs were 10,909,100 Rials (US$386, 109’940 Rials (US$38.90, and 1,066,200 Rials (37.73 US$ which were 83.4%, 8.4% and 8.2% of the total costs, respectively. Statistical analyses indicated a significant relationship between gender, marital status, education, job status, location, type of disease, type of admission, and the reason for hospitalization and some types of assessed costs (P < 0.05. Conclusions The study showed that the costs associated with cardiovascular diseases were not reasonable for many of these patients and their families. This certainly requires more consideration by managers and policy makers in the health care sector and the implementation of

Cost-effective analysis of PET application in NSCLC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu Aichun; Liu Jianjun; Sun Xiaoguang; Shi Yiping; Huang Gang

2006-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PET and CT application for diagnosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in China. Methods: Using decision analysis method the diagnostic efficiency of PET and CT for diagnosis of NSCLC in china was analysed. And also the value of cost for accurate diagnosis (CAD), cost for accurate staging (CAS) and cost for effective therapy (CAT) was calculated. Results: (1) For the accurate diagnosis, CT was much more cost-effective than PET. (2) For the accurate staging, CT was still more cost-effective than PET. (3) For the all over diagnostic and therapeutic cost, PET was more cost-effective than CT. (4) The priority of PET to CT was for the diagnosis of stage I NSCLC. Conclusion: For the management of NSCLC patient in China, CT is more cost-effective for screening, whereas PET for clinical staging and monitoring therapeutic effect. (authors)

Impact of nuclear fuel performance and reliability in a deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnoski, M.; Kaiser, B.

1997-01-01

US nuclear plants are now placing a great deal of importance on fuel performance and reliability because of their direct effect on a plant's capacity factor, availability, operating flexibility, outage duration, and worker exposure. This is reflected by utilities making fuel reliability a principal vendor evaluation criterion and making fuel performance an important bonus/penalty provision. Defect-free fuel, combined with ever improving design features, makes it possible for plants to operate at higher outputs while reducing operating and maintenance costs. Higher electrical output at lower cost is essential for US nuclear plants to meet the expected competition in a deregulated market. Through continued investment in manufacturing improvements and a vigilant, systematic design process, ABB's nuclear fuel has contributed to helping its nuclear utility customers reduce their cost of doing business. (author) 1 fig., 1 tab

Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffith, Candice D.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2011-01-01

The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: →We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. → We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. → We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

Cost-effective backhaul design using hybrid radio/free-space optical technology

KAUST Repository

Douik, Ahmed S.

2015-06-08

The deluge of date rate in today\\'s networks poses a cost burden on the backhaul network design. Developing cost efficient backhaul solutions becomes an interesting, yet challenging, problem. Traditional technologies for backhaul networks include either radio-frequency backhauls (RF) or optical fibres (OF). While RF is a cost-effective solution as compared to OF, it supports lower data rate requirements. Another promising backhaul solution that may combine both a high data rate and a relatively low cost is the free-space optics (FSO). FSO, however, is sensitive to nature conditions (e.g., rain, fog, line-ofsight, etc.). A more reliable alternative is, therefore, to combine RF and FSO solutions through a hybrid structure called hybrid RF/FSO. Consider a backhaul network, where the base-stations (BS) can be connected to each other either via OF or hybrid RF/FSO backhaul links. The paper addresses the problem of minimizing the cost of backhaul planning under connectivity and data rates constraints, so as to choose the appropriate costeffective backhaul type between BSs (i.e., either OF or hybrid RF/FSO). The paper solves the problem using graph theory techniques by introducing the corresponding planning graph. It shows that under a specified realistic assumption about the cost of OF and hybrid RF/FSO links, the problem is equivalent to a maximum weight clique problem, which can be solved with moderate complexity. Simulation results show that our proposed solution shows a close-to-optimal performance, especially for practical prices of the hybrid RF/FSO.

Cost-effective backhaul design using hybrid radio/free-space optical technology

KAUST Repository

Douik, Ahmed S.; Dahrouj, Hayssam; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2015-01-01

The deluge of date rate in today's networks poses a cost burden on the backhaul network design. Developing cost efficient backhaul solutions becomes an interesting, yet challenging, problem. Traditional technologies for backhaul networks include either radio-frequency backhauls (RF) or optical fibres (OF). While RF is a cost-effective solution as compared to OF, it supports lower data rate requirements. Another promising backhaul solution that may combine both a high data rate and a relatively low cost is the free-space optics (FSO). FSO, however, is sensitive to nature conditions (e.g., rain, fog, line-ofsight, etc.). A more reliable alternative is, therefore, to combine RF and FSO solutions through a hybrid structure called hybrid RF/FSO. Consider a backhaul network, where the base-stations (BS) can be connected to each other either via OF or hybrid RF/FSO backhaul links. The paper addresses the problem of minimizing the cost of backhaul planning under connectivity and data rates constraints, so as to choose the appropriate costeffective backhaul type between BSs (i.e., either OF or hybrid RF/FSO). The paper solves the problem using graph theory techniques by introducing the corresponding planning graph. It shows that under a specified realistic assumption about the cost of OF and hybrid RF/FSO links, the problem is equivalent to a maximum weight clique problem, which can be solved with moderate complexity. Simulation results show that our proposed solution shows a close-to-optimal performance, especially for practical prices of the hybrid RF/FSO.

A Simulation Model for Machine Efficiency Improvement Using Reliability Centered Maintenance: Case Study of Semiconductor Factory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Srisawat Supsomboon

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to increase the quality of product by focusing on the machine efficiency improvement. The principle of the reliability centered maintenance (RCM was applied to increase the machine reliability. The objective was to create preventive maintenance plan under reliability centered maintenance method and to reduce defects. The study target was set to reduce the Lead PPM for a test machine by simulating the proposed preventive maintenance plan. The simulation optimization approach based on evolutionary algorithms was employed for the preventive maintenance technique selection process to select the PM interval that gave the best total cost and Lead PPM values. The research methodology includes procedures such as following the priority of critical components in test machine, analyzing the damage and risk level by using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA, calculating the suitable replacement period through reliability estimation, and optimizing the preventive maintenance plan. From the result of the study it is shown that the Lead PPM of test machine can be reduced. The cost of preventive maintenance, cost of good product, and cost of lost product were decreased.

The cost of preventing undernutrition: cost, cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness of three cash-based interventions on nutrition outcomes in Dadu, Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Trenouth, Lani; Colbourn, Timothy; Fenn, Bridget; Pietzsch, Silke; Myatt, Mark; Puett, Chloe

2018-07-01

Cash-based interventions (CBIs) increasingly are being used to deliver humanitarian assistance and there is growing interest in the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers for preventing undernutrition in emergency contexts. The objectives of this study were to assess the costs, cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness in achieving nutrition outcomes of three CBIs in southern Pakistan: a 'double cash' (DC) transfer, a 'standard cash' (SC) transfer and a 'fresh food voucher' (FFV) transfer. Cash and FFVs were provided to poor households with children aged 6-48 months for 6 months in 2015. The SC and FFV interventions provided $14 monthly and the DC provided $28 monthly. Cost data were collected via institutional accounting records, interviews, programme observation, document review and household survey. Cost-effectiveness was assessed as cost per case of wasting, stunting and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Beneficiary costs were higher for the cash groups than the voucher group. Net total cost transfer ratios (TCTRs) were estimated as 1.82 for DC, 2.82 for SC and 2.73 for FFV. Yet, despite the higher operational costs, the FFV TCTR was lower than the SC TCTR when incorporating the participation cost to households, demonstrating the relevance of including beneficiary costs in cost-efficiency estimations. The DC intervention achieved a reduction in wasting, at $4865 per case averted; neither the SC nor the FFV interventions reduced wasting. The cost per case of stunting averted was $1290 for DC, $882 for SC and $883 for FFV. The cost per DALY averted was $641 for DC, $434 for SC and $563 for FFV without discounting or age weighting. These interventions are highly cost-effective by international thresholds. While it is debatable whether these resource requirements represent a feasible or sustainable investment given low health expenditures in Pakistan, these findings may provide justification for continuing Pakistan's investment in national social safety

Software Cuts Homebuilding Costs, Increases Energy Efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

To sort out the best combinations of technologies for a crewed mission to Mars, NASA Headquarters awarded grants to MIT's Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics to develop an algorithm-based software tool that highlights the most reliable and cost-effective options. Utilizing the software, Professor Edward Crawley founded Cambridge, Massachussetts-based Ekotrope, which helps homebuilders choose cost- and energy-efficient floor plans and materials.

Achieving High Reliability with People, Processes, and Technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Saunders, Candice L; Brennan, John A

2017-01-01

High reliability as a corporate value in healthcare can be achieved by meeting the "Quadruple Aim" of improving population health, reducing per capita costs, enhancing the patient experience, and improving provider wellness. This drive starts with the board of trustees, CEO, and other senior leaders who ingrain high reliability throughout the organization. At WellStar Health System, the board developed an ambitious goal to become a top-decile health system in safety and quality metrics. To achieve this goal, WellStar has embarked on a journey toward high reliability and has committed to Lean management practices consistent with the Institute for Healthcare Improvement's definition of a high-reliability organization (HRO): one that is committed to the prevention of failure, early identification and mitigation of failure, and redesign of processes based on identifiable failures. In the end, a successful HRO can provide safe, effective, patient- and family-centered, timely, efficient, and equitable care through a convergence of people, processes, and technology.

Methodology for reliability based condition assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, Y.; Ellingwood, B.

1993-08-01

Structures in nuclear power plants may be exposed to aggressive environmental effects that cause their strength to decrease over an extended period of service. A major concern in evaluating the continued service for such structures is to ensure that in their current condition they are able to withstand future extreme load events during the intended service life with a level of reliability sufficient for public safety. This report describes a methodology to facilitate quantitative assessments of current and future structural reliability and performance of structures in nuclear power plants. This methodology takes into account the nature of past and future loads, and randomness in strength and in degradation resulting from environmental factors. An adaptive Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate time-dependent system reliability. The time-dependent reliability is sensitive to the time-varying load characteristics and to the choice of initial strength and strength degradation models but not to correlation in component strengths within a system. Inspection/maintenance strategies are identified that minimize the expected future costs of keeping the failure probability of a structure at or below an established target failure probability during its anticipated service period

Cost-effectiveness and the socialization of health care.

Science.gov (United States)

Musgrove, P

1995-01-01

The more health care is socialized, the more cost-effectiveness is an appropriate criterion for expenditure. Utility-maximizing individuals, facing divisibility of health care purchases and declining marginal health gains, and complete information about probable health improvements, should buy health care according to its cost-effectiveness. Absent these features, individual health spending will not be cost-effective; and in any case, differences in personal utilities and risk aversion will not lead to the same ranking of health care interventions for everyone. Private insurance frees consumers from concern for cost, which undermines cost-effectiveness, but lets them emphasize effectiveness, which favors value for money. This is most important for costly and cost-effective interventions, especially for poor people. Cost-effectiveness is more appropriate and easier to achieve under second-party insurance. More complete socialization of health care, via public finance, can yield greater efficiency by making insurance compulsory. Cost-effectiveness is also more attractive when taxpayers subsidize others' care: needs (effectiveness) take precedence over wants (utility). The gain in effectiveness may be greater, and the welfare loss from Pareto non-optimality smaller, in poor countries than in rich ones.

Improving Reliability and Durability of Efficient and Clean Energy Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Prabhakar [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)

2010-08-01

Overall objective of the research program was to develop an in-depth understanding of the degradation processes in advanced electrochemical energy conversion systems. It was also the objective of the research program to transfer the technology to participating industries for implementation in manufacturing of cost effective and reliable integrated systems.

Research on reliability management systems for Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maki, Nobuo

2000-01-01

Investigation on a reliability management system for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) has been performed on national and international archived documents as well as on current status of studies at Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), US NPPs (McGuire, Seabrook), a French NPP (St. Laurent-des-Eaux), Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI), Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industries (CRIEPI), and power plant manufacturers in Japan. As a result of the investigation, the following points were identified: (i) A reliability management system is composed of a maintenance management system to inclusively manage maintenance data, and an anomalies information and reliability data management system to extract data from maintenance results stored in the maintenance management system and construct a reliability database. (ii) The maintenance management system, which is widely-used among NPPs in the US and Europe, is an indispensable system for the increase of maintenance reliability. (iii) Maintenance management methods utilizing reliability data like Reliability Centered Maintenance are applied for NPP maintenance in the US and Europe, and contributing to cost saving. Maintenance templates are effective in the application process. In addition, the following points were proposed on the design of the system: (i) A detailed database on specifications of facilities and components is necessary for the effective use of the system. (ii) A demand database is indispensable for the application of the methods. (iii) Full-time database managers are important to maintain the quality of the reliability data. (author)

Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Model Study Based On Reliability Limitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhou Qian

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Effective maintenance is crucial for equipment performance in industry. Imperfect maintenance conform to actual failure process. Taking the dynamic preventive maintenance cost into account, the preventive maintenance model was constructed by using age reduction factor. The model regards the minimization of repair cost rate as final target. It use allowed smallest reliability as the replacement condition. Equipment life was assumed to follow two parameters Weibull distribution since it was one of the most commonly adopted distributions to fit cumulative failure problems. Eventually the example verifies the rationality and benefits of the model.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of an RCT in rehabilitation after lumbar spinal fusion: a low-cost, behavioural approach is cost-effective over individual exercise therapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søgaard, Rikke; Laurberg, Ida; Christensen, Finn B

2008-01-01

Recently, Christensen et al. reported the clinical effects of a low-cost rehabilitation program equally efficient to a relatively intensive program of individual, physiotherapist-guided exercise therapy. Yet, the low-cost approach is not fully supported as an optimal strategy until a full......-scale economic evaluation, including extra-hospital effects such as service utilization in the primary health care sector and return-to-work, is conducted. The objective of this study was to conduct such evaluation i.e. investigate the cost-effectiveness of (1) a low-cost rehabilitation regimen...... with a behavioural element and (2) a regimen of individual exercise therapy, both in comparison with usual practice, from a health economic, societal perspective. Study design was a cost-effectiveness evaluation of an RCT with a 2-year follow-up. Ninety patients having had posterolateral or circumferential fusion...

FIRM SIZE EFFECTS ON TRANSACTION COSTS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

NOOTEBOOM, B

1993-01-01

Associated with effects of scale, scope, experience and learning there are effects of firm size on transaction costs; in the stages of contact, contract and control. These effects are due to ''threshold costs'' in setting up contacts, contracts and governance schemes, and to differences with respect

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Albania.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmeti, Albana; Preza, Iria; Simaku, Artan; Nelaj, Erida; Clark, Andrew David; Felix Garcia, Ana Gabriela; Lara, Carlos; Hoestlandt, Céline; Blau, Julia; Bino, Silvia

2015-05-07

Rotavirus vaccines have been introduced in several European countries but can represent a considerable cost, particularly for countries that do not qualify for any external financial support. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introducing rotavirus vaccination into Albania's national immunization program and to inform national decision-making by improving national capacity to conduct economic evaluations of new vaccines. The TRIVAC model was used to assess vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness. The model estimated health and economic outcomes attributed to 10 successive vaccinated birth cohorts (2013-2022) from a government and societal perspective. Epidemiological and economic data used in the model were based on national cost studies, and surveillance data, as well as estimates from the scientific literature. Cost-effectiveness was estimated for both the monovalent (RV1) and pentavalent vaccines (RV5). A multivariate scenario analysis (SA) was performed to evaluate the uncertainty around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). With 3% discounting of costs and health benefits over the period 2013-2022, rotavirus vaccination in Albania could avert 51,172 outpatient visits, 14,200 hospitalizations, 27 deaths, 950 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and gain 801 life-years. When both vaccines were compared to no vaccination, the discounted cost per DALY averted was US$ 2008 for RV1 and US$ 5047 for RV5 from a government perspective. From the societal perspective the values were US$ 517 and US$ 3556, respectively. From both the perspectives, the introduction of rotavirus vaccine to the Albanian immunization schedule is either cost-effective or highly cost-effective for a range of plausible scenarios. In most scenarios, including the base-case scenario, the discounted cost per DALY averted was less than three times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. However, rotavirus vaccination was not cost-effective when rotavirus cases

Cost-of-illness studies and cost-effectiveness analyses in anxiety disorders: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Konnopka, Alexander; Leichsenring, Falk; Leibing, Eric; König, Hans-Helmut

2009-04-01

To review cost-of-illness studies (COI) and cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) conducted for anxiety disorders. Based on a database search in Pubmed, PsychINFO and NHS EED, studies were classified according to various criteria. Cost data were inflated and converted to 2005 US-$ purchasing power parities (PPP). We finally identified 20 COI and 11 CEA of which most concentrated on panic disorder (PD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Differing inclusion of cost categories limited comparability of COI. PD and GAD tended to show higher direct costs per case, but lower direct cost per inhabitant than social and specific phobias. Different measures of effectiveness severely limited comparability of CEA. Overall CEA analysed 26 therapeutic or interventional strategies mostly compared to standard treatment, 8 of them resulting in lower better effectiveness and costs than the comparator. Anxiety disorders cause considerable costs. More research on phobias, more standardised inclusion of cost categories in COI and a wider use of comparable effectiveness measures (like QALYs) in CEA is needed.

Can non-destructive inspection be reliable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silk, M.G.; Stoneham, A.M.; Temple, J.A.G.

1988-01-01

The paper on inspection is based on the book ''The reliability of non-destructive inspection: assessing the assessment of structures under stress'' by the present authors (published by Adam Hilger 1987). Emphasis is placed on the reliability of inspection and whether cracks in welds or flaws in components can be detected. The need for non-destructive testing and the historical attitudes to non-destructive testing are outlined, along with the case of failure. Factors influencing reliable inspection are discussed, and defect detection trials involving round robin tests are described. The development of reliable inspection techniques and the costs of reliability and unreliability are also examined. (U.K.)

Effect of Different Workscope Strategies on Wind Turbine Gearbox Life Cycle Repair Costs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Crowley

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The wind turbine industry is beginning to establish orthodoxies governing the repair of gearboxes, including policies governing the replacement of bearings during gearbox heavy maintenance events. Some maintainers recommend replacing all of the bearings, every time, regardless of condition or age. At the same time, others prefer to only replace the failed bearing. The former rationale achieves availability by spending more money than absolutely necessary; the latter sacrifices reliability in exchange for a lower shop visit cost. Even though neither approach results in the lowest Life Cycle Cost, no standard practice has yet been implemented to methodically determine what would be the best approach. Furthermore, as gearboxes approach the end of their planned service lives, a different strategy may be called-for. This paper presents an example of using a reliability-based statistical analysis to determine which strategy will yield the lowest Life Cycle Cost for wind turbine gearboxes.

Cost-effectiveness of monitoring free flaps.

Science.gov (United States)

Subramaniam, Shiva; Sharp, David; Jardim, Christopher; Batstone, Martin D

2016-06-01

Methods of free flap monitoring have become more sophisticated and expensive. This study aims to determine the cost of free flap monitoring and examine its cost effectiveness. We examined a group of patients who had had free flaps to the head and neck over a two-year period, and combined these results with costs obtained from business managers and staff. There were 132 free flaps with a success rate of 99%. The cost of monitoring was Aus $193/flap. Clinical monitoring during this time period cost Aus$25 476 and did not lead to the salvage of any free flaps. Cost equivalence is reached between monitoring and not monitoring only at a failure rate of 15.8%. This is to our knowledge the first study to calculate the cost of clinical monitoring of free flaps, and to examine its cost-effectiveness. Copyright © 2016 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd

2017-01-01

With a growing number of individuals retaining their teeth lifelong, often with periodontitis-induced root surface exposure, there is the need for cost-effective management strategies for root caries lesions. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments. Patients were simulated over 10 years using a Markov model. Four treatments were compared: No treatment, daily 225-800ppm fluoride rinses, chlorhexidine (CHX) varnish (2×/year), silver diamine fluoride (SDF) varnish (2×/year). Data from a systematic review were submitted to network meta-analysis for inferring relative efficacies of treatments. The health outcome was years of teeth being free of root caries. A mixed public-private payer perspective within 2016 German healthcare was taken, with costs being estimated from fee item catalogues or based on market prices. Populations with different numbers of teeth and tooth-level risks were modelled. Monte-Carlo microsimulations, univariate- and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. In populations with 16 teeth at risk and low tooth-level risk for root caries, providing no preventive treatment was least costly, but also least effective (130 Euro, 144 years). SDF ranked next, being more costly (180 Euro), but also more effective (151 years). Payers willing to invest 8.30 Euro per root caries-free tooth-year found SDF most cost-effective. CHX varnish and fluoride rinse were not cost-effective. In populations with more teeth and high tooth-level risk, SDF was the most effective and least costly option. Root caries preventive treatments (like SDF) are effective and might even be cost-saving in high risk populations. Application of SDF can be recommended as a cost-saving treatment for prevention of root caries in patients with high risk of root caries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of Machine Reliability and Life and Economics of Operational Use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Młynarski Stanisław

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The article presents new assumptions for reliability and life of machines, resulting from the development of technology. The innovative approach to reliability and life design as well as warranty duration planning is presented on an example of vehicle reliability characteristics. A new algorithm is proposed for the replacement of repairable objects costs by the price of life and reliability of new unrepairable ones. For the planning of the life of innovative machines, an effective method of technical progress rate determination is proposed. In conclusion, necessary modifications of machine and vehicle use systems, resulting from technology evolution and technical progress, are indicated. Finally, recommendations and directions of indispensable research in engineering and management of technical means of production are formulated.

Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, Mark Z; Delucchi, Mark A; Cameron, Mary A; Frew, Bethany A

2015-12-08

This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integration model and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050-2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.

10 CFR 455.63 - Cost-effectiveness testing.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Cost-effectiveness testing. 455.63 Section 455.63 Energy..., Hospitals, Units of Local Government, and Public Care Institutions § 455.63 Cost-effectiveness testing. (a... paragraph (a) of this section, if the State plan requires the cost effectiveness of an energy conservation...

Cost-effectiveness of cell salvage and alternative methods of minimising perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion: a systematic review and economic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, L; Brown, T J; Haynes, S; Payne, K; Elliott, R A; McCollum, C

2006-11-01

). Twelve published studies reported full economic evaluations. All but two of the transfusion strategies significantly reduced exposure to allogeneic blood. The relative risk of exposure to allogeneic blood was 0.59 for the pooled trials of cell salvage (95% confidence interval: 0.48 to 0.73). This varied by the type and timing of cell salvage and type of surgical procedure. For cell salvage, the relative risk of allogeneic blood transfusion was higher in cardiac surgery than in orthopaedic surgery. Cell salvage had lower costs and slightly higher quality-adjusted life years compared with all of the alternative transfusion strategies except ANH. The likelihood that cell salvage is cost-effective compared with strategies other than ANH is over 50%. Most of the secondary analyses indicated similar results to the primary analysis. However, the primary and secondary analyses indicated that ANH may be more cost-effective than cell salvage. The available evidence indicates that cell salvage may be a cost-effective method to reduce exposure to allogeneic blood transfusion. However, ANH may be more cost-effective than cell salvage. The results of this analysis are subject to the low quality and reliability of the data used and the use of indirect comparisons. This may affect the reliability and robustness of the clinical and economic results. There is a need for further research that includes adequately powered high-quality RCTs to compare directly various blood transfusion strategies. These should include measures of health status, health-related quality of life and patient preferences for alternative transfusion strategies. Observational and tracking studies are needed to estimate reliably the incidence of adverse events and infections transmitted during blood transfusion and to identify the lifetime consequences of the serious hazards of transfusion on mortality, health status and health-related quality of life.

Cost-effectiveness of tubal patency tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhoeve, H R; Moolenaar, L M; Hompes, P; van der Veen, F; Mol, B W J

2013-04-01

Guidelines are not in agreement on the most effective diagnostic scenario for tubal patency testing; therefore, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of invasive tubal testing in subfertile couples compared with no testing and treatment. Cost-effectiveness analysis. Decision analytic framework. Computer-simulated cohort of subfertile women. We evaluated six scenarios: (1) no tests and no treatment; (2) immediate treatment without tubal testing; (3) delayed treatment without tubal testing; (4) hysterosalpingogram (HSG), followed by immediate or delayed treatment, according to diagnosis (tailored treatment); (5) HSG and a diagnostic laparoscopy (DL) in case HSG does not prove tubal patency, followed by tailored treatment; and (6) DL followed by tailored treatment. Expected cumulative live births after 3 years. Secondary outcomes were cost per couple and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. For a 30-year-old woman with otherwise unexplained subfertility for 12 months, 3-year cumulative live birth rates were 51.8, 78.1, 78.4, 78.4, 78.6 and 78.4%, and costs per couple were €0, €6968, €5063, €5410, €5405 and €6163 for scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with scenario 1 (reference strategy), were €26,541, €19,046, €20,372, €20,150 and €23,184 for scenarios 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed the model to be robust over a wide range of values for the variables. The most cost-effective scenario is to perform no diagnostic tubal tests and to delay in vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment for at least 12 months for women younger than 38 years old, and to perform no tubal tests and start immediate IVF treatment from the age of 39 years. If an invasive diagnostic test is planned, HSG followed by tailored treatment, or a DL if HSG shows no tubal patency, is more cost-effective than DL. © 2013 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2013

Transparent reliability model for fault-tolerant safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodsberg, Lars; Hokstad, Per

1997-01-01

A reliability model is presented which may serve as a tool for identification of cost-effective configurations and operating philosophies of computer-based process safety systems. The main merit of the model is the explicit relationship in the mathematical formulas between failure cause and the means used to improve system reliability such as self-test, redundancy, preventive maintenance and corrective maintenance. A component failure taxonomy has been developed which allows the analyst to treat hardware failures, human failures, and software failures of automatic systems in an integrated manner. Furthermore, the taxonomy distinguishes between failures due to excessive environmental stresses and failures initiated by humans during engineering and operation. Attention has been given to develop a transparent model which provides predictions which are in good agreement with observed system performance, and which is applicable for non-experts in the field of reliability

A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Studies Reporting Cost-per-DALY Averted.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter J Neumann

Full Text Available Calculating the cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs averted associated with interventions is an increasing popular means of assessing the cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve population health. However, there has been no systematic attempt to characterize the literature and its evolution.We conducted a systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies reporting cost-per-DALY averted from 2000 through 2015. We developed the Global Health Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GHCEA Registry, a repository of English-language cost-per-DALY averted studies indexed in PubMed. To identify candidate studies, we searched PubMed for articles with titles or abstracts containing the phrases "disability-adjusted" or "DALY". Two reviewers with training in health economics independently reviewed each article selected in our abstract review, gathering information using a standardized data collection form. We summarized descriptive characteristics on study methodology: e.g., intervention type, country of study, study funder, study perspective, along with methodological and reporting practices over two time periods: 2000-2009 and 2010-2015. We analyzed the types of costs included in analyses, the study quality on a scale from 1 (low to 7 (high, and examined the correlation between diseases researched and the burden of disease in different world regions.We identified 479 cost-per-DALY averted studies published from 2000 through 2015. Studies from Sub-Saharan Africa comprised the largest portion of published studies. The disease areas most commonly studied were communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders (67%, followed by non-communicable diseases (28%. A high proportion of studies evaluated primary prevention strategies (59%. Pharmaceutical interventions were commonly assessed (32% followed by immunizations (28%. Adherence to good practices for conducting and reporting cost-effectiveness analysis varied considerably. Studies mainly included

Comparative costs and cost-effectiveness of behavioural interventions as part of HIV prevention strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Justine; Zinsou, Cyprien; Parkhurst, Justin; N'Dour, Marguerite; Foyet, Léger; Mueller, Dirk H

2013-01-01

Behavioural interventions have been widely integrated in HIV/AIDS social marketing prevention strategies and are considered valuable in settings with high levels of risk behaviours and low levels of HIV/AIDS awareness. Despite their widespread application, there is a lack of economic evaluations comparing different behaviour change communication methods. This paper analyses the costs to increase awareness and the cost-effectiveness to influence behaviour change for five interventions in Benin. Cost and cost-effectiveness analyses used economic costs and primary effectiveness data drawn from surveys. Costs were collected for provider inputs required to implement the interventions in 2009 and analysed by 'person reached'. Cost-effectiveness was analysed by 'person reporting systematic condom use'. Sensitivity analyses were performed on all uncertain variables and major assumptions. Cost-per-person reached varies by method, with public outreach events the least costly (US$2.29) and billboards the most costly (US$25.07). Influence on reported behaviour was limited: only three of the five interventions were found to have a significant statistical correlation with reported condom use (i.e. magazines, radio broadcasts, public outreach events). Cost-effectiveness ratios per person reporting systematic condom use resulted in the following ranking: magazines, radio and public outreach events. Sensitivity analyses indicate rankings are insensitive to variation of key parameters although ratios must be interpreted with caution. This analysis suggests that while individual interventions are an attractive use of resources to raise awareness, this may not translate into a cost-effective impact on behaviour change. The study found that the extensive reach of public outreach events did not seem to influence behaviour change as cost-effectively when compared with magazines or radio broadcasts. Behavioural interventions are context-specific and their effectiveness influenced by a

Reliability-Based Optimal Design for Very Large Floating Structure

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Shu-hua(张淑华); FUJIKUBO Masahiko

2003-01-01

Costs and losses induced by possible future extreme environmental conditions and difficulties in repairing post-yielding damage strongly suggest the need for proper consideration in design rather than just life loss prevention. This can be addressed through the development of design methodology that balances the initial cost of the very large floating structure (VLFS) against the expected potential losses resulting from future extreme wave-induced structural damage. Here, the development of a methodology for determining optimal, cost-effective design will be presented and applied to a VLFS located in the Tokyo bay. Optimal design criteria are determined based on the total expected life-cycle cost and acceptable damage probability and curvature of the structure, and a set of sizes of the structure are obtained. The methodology and applications require expressions of the initial cost and the expected life-cycle damage cost as functions of the optimal design variables. This study includes the methodology, total life-cycle cost function, structural damage modeling, and reliability analysis.

Photovoltaic performance and reliability workshop

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mrig, L. [ed.

1993-12-01

This workshop was the sixth in a series of workshops sponsored by NREL/DOE under the general subject of photovoltaic testing and reliability during the period 1986--1993. PV performance and PV reliability are at least as important as PV cost, if not more. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities, and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in the field were brought together to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this evolving field of PV reliability. The papers presented here reflect this effort since the last workshop held in September, 1992. The topics covered include: cell and module characterization, module and system testing, durability and reliability, system field experience, and standards and codes.

Optimized work control process to improve safety and reliability in a risk-based and deregulated environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, Jon G.; Jeffries, Jeffrey D. E.; Mairs, Todd P.; Rahn, Frank J.

1999-01-01

This paper provides an overview of strategic models to assist power generating plants to improve their work control processes. These models include mechanisms to continually keep the process up to date. Included in the work control process are elements for system cost/performance analysis, life-cycle maintenance planning, on-line scheduling and look-ahead techniques, and schedule implementation to conduct work on the asset. The paper also discusses how risk management associated with work control issues that effect the safety and reliability, as well as O and M costs, is integrated into this strategy. The work control process is a pervasive and critical element in the successful implementation of operations and work management programs. While providing a method to implement maintenance activities in a cost-effective manner, the work control process improves plant safety and system reliability

Reliability and Energy Loss in Full-scale Wind Power Converter Considering Grid Codes and Wind Classes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Dao; Blaabjerg, Frede; Franke, Toke

2014-01-01

With the increasing penetration of the wind power, reliable operation and cost-effective wind energy production are of more and more importance. As one of the promising configurations, the cost on reliability and production losses of permanent-magnet synchronous generator based full-scale wind......, if the specific designed wind turbine system operates at different wind classes, it can be seen that higher wind class level results in lower lifetime of the power converter. In respect to the cost of the reactive power, either the OE or the UE reactive power increases the energy loss per year significantly...... power converter is studied considering the grid code with reactive power production as well as the annual wind profile. Regarding the reliability, it is found that either the Over-Excited (OE) or the Under-Excited (UE) reactive power injection threatens the lifespan under all wind classes. Meanwhile...

Cost and cost-effectiveness of PPM-DOTS for tuberculosis control: evidence from India.

OpenAIRE

Floyd, Katherine; Arora, V. K.; Murthy, K. J. R.; Lonnroth, Knut; Singla, Neeta; Akbar, Y.; Zignol, Matteo; Uplekar, Mukund

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost and cost-effectiveness of the Public-Private Mix DOTS (PPM-DOTS) strategy for tuberculosis (TB) control in India. METHODS: We collected data on the costs and effects of pilot PPM-DOTS projects in Delhi and Hyderabad using documentary data and interviews. The cost of PPM-DOTS was compared with public sector DOTS (i.e. DOTS delivered through public sector facilities only) and non-DOTS treatment in the private sector. Costs for 2002 in US$ were assessed for the publ...

Clinical benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of neonatal intensive care in Mexico.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jochen Profit

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Neonatal intensive care improves survival, but is associated with high costs and disability amongst survivors. Recent health reform in Mexico launched a new subsidized insurance program, necessitating informed choices on the different interventions that might be covered by the program, including neonatal intensive care. The purpose of this study was to estimate the clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of neonatal intensive care in Mexico.A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a decision analytic model of health and economic outcomes following preterm birth. Model parameters governing health outcomes were estimated from Mexican vital registration and hospital discharge databases, supplemented with meta-analyses and systematic reviews from the published literature. Costs were estimated on the basis of data provided by the Ministry of Health in Mexico and World Health Organization price lists, supplemented with published studies from other countries as needed. The model estimated changes in clinical outcomes, life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, lifetime costs, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs for neonatal intensive care compared to no intensive care. Uncertainty around the results was characterized using one-way sensitivity analyses and a multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. In the base-case analysis, neonatal intensive care for infants born at 24-26, 27-29, and 30-33 weeks gestational age prolonged life expectancy by 28, 43, and 34 years and averted 9, 15, and 12 DALYs, at incremental costs per infant of US$11,400, US$9,500, and US$3,000, respectively, compared to an alternative of no intensive care. The ICERs of neonatal intensive care at 24-26, 27-29, and 30-33 weeks were US$1,200, US$650, and US$240, per DALY averted, respectively. The findings were robust to variation in parameter values over wide ranges in sensitivity analyses

Gedanken Experiments in Educational Cost Effectiveness

Science.gov (United States)

Brudner, Harvey J.

1978-01-01

Discusses the effectiveness of cost determining techniques in education. The areas discussed are: education and management; cost-effectiveness models; figures of merit determination; and the implications as they relate to the areas of audio-visual and computer educational technology. (Author/GA)

[Incremental cost effectiveness of multifocal cataract surgery].

Science.gov (United States)

Pagel, N; Dick, H B; Krummenauer, F

2007-02-01

Supplementation of cataract patients with multifocal intraocular lenses involves an additional financial investment when compared to the corresponding monofocal supplementation, which usually is not funded by German health care insurers. In the context of recent resource allocation discussions, however, the cost effectiveness of multifocal cataract surgery could become an important rationale. Therefore an evidence-based estimation of its cost effectiveness was carried out. Three independent meta-analyses were implemented to estimate the gain in uncorrected near visual acuity and best corrected visual acuity (vision lines) as well as the predictability (fraction of patients without need for reading aids) of multifocal supplementation. Study reports published between 1995 and 2004 (English or German language) were screened for appropriate key words. Meta effects in visual gain and predictability were estimated by means and standard deviations of the reported effect measures. Cost data were estimated by German DRG rates and individual lens costs; the cost effectiveness of multifocal cataract surgery was then computed in terms of its marginal cost effectiveness ratio (MCER) for each clinical benefit endpoint; the incremental costs of multifocal versus monofocal cataract surgery were further estimated by means of their respective incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER). An independent meta-analysis estimated the complication profiles to be expected after monofocal and multifocal cataract surgery in order to evaluate expectable complication-associated additional costs of both procedures; the marginal and incremental cost effectiveness estimates were adjusted accordingly. A sensitivity analysis comprised cost variations of +/- 10 % and utility variations alongside the meta effect estimate's 95 % confidence intervals. Total direct costs from the health care insurer's perspective were estimated 3363 euro, associated with a visual meta benefit in best corrected visual

A reliability-risk modelling of nuclear rad-waste facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehmann, P.H.; El-Bassioni, A.A.

1975-01-01

Rad-waste disposal systems of nuclear power sites are designed and operated to collect, delay, contain, and concentrate radioactive wastes from reactor plant processes such that on-site and off-site exposures to radiation are well below permissible limits. To assist the designer in achieving minimum release/exposure goals, a computerized reliability-risk model has been developed to simulate the rad-waste system. The objectives of the model are to furnish a practical tool for quantifying the effects of changes in system configuration, operation, and equipment, and for the identification of weak segments in the system design. Primarily, the model comprises a marriage of system analysis, reliability analysis, and release-risk assessment. Provisions have been included in the model to permit the optimization of the system design subject to constraints on cost and rad-releases. The system analysis phase involves the preparation of a physical and functional description of the rad-waste facility accompanied by the formation of a system tree diagram. The reliability analysis phase embodies the formulation of appropriate reliability models and the collection of model parameters. Release-risk assessment constitutes the analytical basis whereupon further system and reliability analyses may be warranted. Release-risk represents the potential for release of radioactivity and is defined as the product of an element's unreliability at time, t, and the radioactivity available for release in time interval, Δt. A computer code (RARISK) has been written to simulate the tree diagram of the rad-waste system. Reliability and release-risk results have been generated for cases which examined the process flow paths of typical rad-waste systems, the effects of repair and standby, the variations of equipment failure and repair rates, and changes in system configurations. The essential feature of this model is that a complex system like the rad-waste facility can be easily decomposed into its

Cost-effective treatment for the couple with infertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Voorhis, B J; Syrop, C H

2000-12-01

Although the evaluation of cost-effective approaches to infertility treatment remains in its infancy, several important principles have emerged from the initial studies in this field. Currently, in treating couples with infertility without tubal disease or severe male-factor infertility, the most cost-effective approach is to start with IUI or superovulation-IUI treatments before resorting to IVF procedures. The woman's age and number of sperm present for insemination are significant factors influencing cost-effectiveness. The influence of certain diagnoses on the cost-effectiveness of infertility treatments requires further study. Even when accounting for the costs associated with multiple gestations and premature deliveries, the cost of IVF decreases within the range of other cost-effective medical procedures and decreases to less than the willingness to pay for these procedures. Indeed, for patients with severe tubal disease, IVF has been found to be more cost-effective than surgical repair. The cost-effectiveness of IVF will likely improve as success rates show continued improvements over the course of time. In addition, usefulness of embryo selection and practices to reduce the likelihood of high-order multiple pregnancies, without reductions in pregnancy rates, will significantly impact cost-effectiveness. The exclusion of infertility treatments from insurance plans is unfortunate and accentuates the importance of physicians understanding the economics of infertility treatment with costs that are often passed directly to the patient. The erroneous economic policies and judgments that have led to inequities in access to infertility health care should not be tolerated.

49 CFR 639.21 - Determination of cost-effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Determination of cost-effectiveness. 639.21... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CAPITAL LEASES Cost-Effectiveness § 639.21 Determination of cost...-effectiveness comparison as described in this subpart, it may ask FTA to approve an alternate form of cost...

Distribution System Reliability Analysis for Smart Grid Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Aljohani, Tawfiq Masad

Reliability of power systems is a key aspect in modern power system planning, design, and operation. The ascendance of the smart grid concept has provided high hopes of developing an intelligent network that is capable of being a self-healing grid, offering the ability to overcome the interruption problems that face the utility and cost it tens of millions in repair and loss. To address its reliability concerns, the power utilities and interested parties have spent extensive amount of time and effort to analyze and study the reliability of the generation and transmission sectors of the power grid. Only recently has attention shifted to be focused on improving the reliability of the distribution network, the connection joint between the power providers and the consumers where most of the electricity problems occur. In this work, we will examine the effect of the smart grid applications in improving the reliability of the power distribution networks. The test system used in conducting this thesis is the IEEE 34 node test feeder, released in 2003 by the Distribution System Analysis Subcommittee of the IEEE Power Engineering Society. The objective is to analyze the feeder for the optimal placement of the automatic switching devices and quantify their proper installation based on the performance of the distribution system. The measures will be the changes in the reliability system indices including SAIDI, SAIFI, and EUE. The goal is to design and simulate the effect of the installation of the Distributed Generators (DGs) on the utility's distribution system and measure the potential improvement of its reliability. The software used in this work is DISREL, which is intelligent power distribution software that is developed by General Reliability Co.

Reliability Evaluation of Power Capacitors in a Wind Turbine System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Dao; Blaabjerg, Frede

2018-01-01

With the increasing penetration of wind power, reliable and cost-effective wind energy production is of more and more importance. The doubly-fed induction generator based partial-scale wind power converter is still dominating in the existing wind farms. In this paper, the reliability assessment...... block diagram is used to bridge the gap between the Weibull distribution based component-level individual capacitor and the capacitor bank. A case study of a 2 MW wind power converter shows that the lifetime is significantly reduced from the individual capacitor to the capacitor bank. Besides, the dc...... of power capacitors is studied considering the annual mission profile. According to an electro-thermal stress evaluation, the time-to-failure distribution of both the dc-link capacitor and ac-side filter capacitor is detailed investigated. Aiming for the systemlevel reliability analysis, a reliability...

[Cost-effectiveness and affordability of strategy for preventing mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Y; Zhang, S X; Yang, P C; Cai, Y L; Zou, Y H

2017-07-10

Objective: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of nationwide prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) strategy for hepatitis B, and estimate the willing to pay and budget impacts on the PMTCT. Methods: The decision analytic Markov model for the PMTCT was constructed and a birth cohort of Chinese infants born in 2013 was used to calculate the cost-effectiveness of the PMTCT among them compared with those receiving no intervention. The parameters in the model were obtained from literatures of national surveys or Meta-analysis. The costs, cases of HBV-related diseases and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were obtained from the societal and payer perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used as measures of strategy optimization. One-way and probability sensitivity analysis were performed to explore the uncertainty of the primary results. In addition, cost-effectiveness acceptability curve and cost-effectiveness affordability curves were drawn to illustrate the cost effectiveness threshold and financial budget of the PMTCT strategy. Results: The lifetime cost for PMTCT strategy was 4 063.5 yuan (RMB) per carrier, which was 37 829.7 yuan (RMB) lower compared with those receiving no intervention. Due to the strategy, a total of 24.516 1 QALYs per person would be gained, which was higher than that in those receiving no intervention. From societal perspective, the ICER was -59 136.6 yuan (RMB) per additional QALYs gained, indicating that the PMTCT is cost effective. The results were reliable indicated by one-way, multi-way and probability sensitivity analyses. By the CEAC, the willing to pay was much lower than the cost-effectiveness threshold. From the affordability curve of the PMTCT strategy, the annual budget ranged from 590.4 million yuan (RMB) to 688.8 million yuan (RMB), which was lower than the financial ability. Based on the results of cost-effectiveness affordability curves, the higher annual budget was determined

Advanced Functionalities for Highly Reliable Optical Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

An, Yi

This thesis covers two research topics concerning optical solutions for networks e.g. avionic systems. One is to identify the applications for silicon photonic devices for cost-effective solutions in short-range optical networks. The other one is to realise advanced functionalities in order...... to increase the availability of highly reliable optical networks. A cost-effective transmitter based on a directly modulated laser (DML) using a silicon micro-ring resonator (MRR) to enhance its modulation speed is proposed, analysed and experimentally demonstrated. A modulation speed enhancement from 10 Gbit...... interconnects and network-on-chips. A novel concept of all-optical protection switching scheme is proposed, where fault detection and protection trigger are all implemented in the optical domain. This scheme can provide ultra-fast establishment of the protection path resulting in a minimum loss of data...

A Step by Step Approach for Evaluating the Reliability of the Main Engine Lube Oil System for a Ship's Propulsion System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohan Anantharaman

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Effective and efficient maintenance is essential to ensure reliability of a ship's main propulsion system, which in turn is interdependent on the reliability of a number of associated sub- systems. A primary step in evaluating the reliability of the ship's propulsion system will be to evaluate the reliability of each of the sub- system. This paper discusses the methodology adopted to quantify reliability of one of the vital sub-system viz. the lubricating oil system, and development of a model, based on Markov analysis thereof. Having developed the model, means to improve reliability of the system should be considered. The cost of the incremental reliability should be measured to evaluate cost benefits. A maintenance plan can then be devised to achieve the higher level of reliability. Similar approach could be considered to evaluate the reliability of all other sub-systems. This will finally lead to development of a model to evaluate and improve the reliability of the main propulsion system.

In vitro cost-effective methods to detect carbapenemases in Enterobacteriaceae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Varsha Gupta

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The rise in carbapenemases-producing organisms has challenged the scientific community. Infections caused by these bacteria have limited treatment options. There are various types such as Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (Ambler class A, metallo-beta-lactamases of VIM-type, IMP-type, NDM-type (Ambler class B, and OXA-48-types (Ambler class D. An efficient strategy for detection of carbapenemase producers is important to determine the appropriate therapeutic modalities. In this study, four methods - Carba NP test, modified Carba NP (MCNP test, carbapenem inactivation method (CIM test, and Rapidec Carba NP kit test were evaluated. We evaluated an in-house MCNP test to detect carbapenemase production using a single protocol which gave reliable results. Furthermore, CIM using routine antibiotic discs gives good results. Both these tests were found to be cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sandhill crane habitat management

Science.gov (United States)

Kessler, Andrew C.; Merchant, James W.; Shultz, Steven D.; Allen, Craig R.

2013-01-01

Invasive species often threaten native wildlife populations and strain the budgets of agencies charged with wildlife management. We demonstrate the potential of cost-effectiveness analysis to improve the efficiency and value of efforts to enhance sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) roosting habitat. We focus on the central Platte River in Nebraska (USA), a region of international ecological importance for migrating avian species including sandhill cranes. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a valuation process designed to compare alternative actions based on the cost of achieving a pre-determined objective. We estimated costs for removal of invasive vegetation using geographic information system simulations and calculated benefits as the increase in area of sandhill crane roosting habitat. We generated cost effectiveness values for removing invasive vegetation on 7 land parcels and for the entire central Platte River to compare the cost-effectiveness of management at specific sites and for the central Platte River landscape. Median cost effectiveness values for the 7 land parcels evaluated suggest that costs for creating 1 additional hectare of sandhill crane roosting habitat totaled US $1,595. By contrast, we found that creating an additional hectare of sandhill crane roosting habitat could cost as much as US $12,010 for some areas in the central Platte River, indicating substantial cost savings can be achieved by using a cost effectiveness analysis to target specific land parcels for management. Cost-effectiveness analysis, used in conjunction with geographic information systems, can provide decision-makers with a new tool for identifying the most economically efficient allocation of resources to achieve habitat management goals.

Training effectiveness vs. cost effectiveness: The next millennium challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coe, Richard P.

2003-01-01

With the advent of the new millennium and energy deregulation, organizations will be challenged to be cost competitive and profitable. Deregulation in the US energy industry will force utilities and, more specifically, commercial nuclear power production to unprecedented cost control measures. It will also renew the fires of debate about costs vs. safety. With personnel costs being the single largest expenditure for most organizations management will be faced with constant dilemmas of competition for scarce resources. Salaries, benefits and training costs will be under greater scrutiny. Training resources and programs will face increased pressure to be job related, based on conservative requirements and more cost effective than in the past. For nearly two decades the US National Academy for Nuclear Training (NANT) has developed and used industry-wide accreditation and evaluation standards based on the Systematic Approach to Training (SAT). This process assures that existing and emerging technical training is constantly reviewed and evaluated against standardized criteria to assure job relatedness and enhanced job performance. The process also requires management to approve, actively participate in and support the training of NPP personnel. Instructors must be highly skilled and well trained in the SAT process and various instructional strategies. The SAT process is grounded in five interlocking keystone steps; Analysis - Design - Development - Implementation - Evaluation (ADDIE). Evaluation of training is often said to be the most crucial and most difficult step. Here is where an organization determines if the training is effective and meeting the legitimate needs of all of the stakeholders. This QA/QC aspect of training must be an ongoing process involving management, instructors and the students. It is only through the discipline of an SAT based evaluation process that an organization can truly determine if the training is efficient, effective, cost effective and

[Cost-Effectiveness and Cost-Utility Analyses of Antireflux Medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Gockel, Ines; Lange, Undine Gabriele; Schürmann, Olaf; Jansen-Winkeln, Boris; Sibbel, Rainer; Lyros, Orestis; von Dercks, Nikolaus

2018-04-12

Laparoscopic antireflux surgery and medical therapy with proton pump inhibitors are gold standards of gastroesophageal reflux treatment. On account of limited resources and increasing healthcare needs and costs, in this analysis, not only optimal medical results, but also superiority in health economics of these 2 methods are evaluated. We performed an electronic literature survey in MEDLINE, PubMed, Cochrane Library, ISRCTN (International Standard Randomization Controlled Trial Number) as well as in the NHS Economic Evaluation Database, including studies published until 1/2017. Only studies considering the effect size of QALY (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) (with respect to different quality of life-scores) as primary outcome comparing laparoscopic fundoplication and medical therapy were included. Criteria of comparison were ICER (Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio) and ICUR (Incremental Cost-Utility Ratio). Superiority of the respective treatment option for each publication was worked out. In total, 18 comparative studies were identified in the current literature with respect to above-mentioned search terms, qualifying for the defined inclusion criteria. Six studies were finally selected for analyses. Out of 6 publications, 3 showed superiority of laparoscopic fundoplication over long-term medical management based on current cost-effectiveness data. Limitations were related to different time intervals, levels of evidence of studies and underlying resources/costs of analyses, healthcare systems and applied quality of life instruments. Future prospective, randomized trials should examine this comparison in greater detail. Additionally, there is a large potential for further research in the health economics assessment of early diagnosis and prevention measures of reflux disease and Barrett's esophagus/carcinoma. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Reliability Oriented Circuit Design For Power Electronics Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sintamarean, Nicolae Cristian

is presented. Chapter 3 presents the electro-thermal model validation and the reliability studies performed by the proposed tool. The chapter ends with a detailed lifetime analysis, which emphasizes the mission-profile variation and gate-driver parameters variation impact on the PV-inverter devices lifetime......Highly reliable components are required in order to minimize the downtime during the lifetime of the converter and implicitly the maintenance costs. Therefore, the design of high reliable converters under constrained reliability and cost is a great challenge to be overcome in the future....... Moreover, the impact of the mission-profile sampling time on the lifetime estimation accuracy is also determined. The second part of the thesis introduced in Chapter 4, presents a novel gate-driver concept which reduces the dependency of the device power losses variations on the device loading variations...

Costs of diarrheal disease and the cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccination program in kyrgyzstan.

Science.gov (United States)

Flem, Elmira T; Latipov, Renat; Nurmatov, Zuridin S; Xue, Yiting; Kasymbekova, Kaliya T; Rheingans, Richard D

2009-11-01

We examined the cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus immunization program in Kyrgyzstan, a country eligible for vaccine funding from the GAVI Alliance. We estimated the burden of rotavirus disease and its economic consequences by using national and international data. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from government and societal perspectives, along with a range of 1-way sensitivity analyses. Rotavirus-related hospitalizations and outpatient visits cost US$580,864 annually, of which $421,658 (73%) is direct medical costs and $159,206 (27%) is nonmedical and indirect costs. With 95% coverage, vaccination could prevent 75% of rotavirus-related hospitalizations and deaths and 56% of outpatient visits and could avert $386,193 (66%) in total costs annually. The medical break-even price at which averted direct medical costs equal vaccination costs is $0.65/dose; the societal break-even price is $1.14/dose for a 2-dose regimen. At the current GAVI Alliance-subsidized vaccine price of $0.60/course, rotavirus vaccination is cost-saving for the government. Vaccination is cost-effective at a vaccine price $9.41/dose, according to the cost-effectiveness standard set by the 2002 World Health Report. Addition of rotavirus vaccines to childhood immunization in Kyrgyzstan could substantially reduce disease burden and associated costs. Vaccination would be cost-effective from the national perspective at a vaccine price $9.41 per dose.

The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Amblyopia Screening Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Rein, David B.; Wittenborn, John S.; Zhang, Xinzhi; Song, Michael; Saaddine, Jinan B.

2013-01-01

Background To estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of amblyopia screening at preschool and kindergarten, we compared the costs and benefits of 3 amblyopia screening scenarios to no screening and to each other: (1) acuity/stereopsis (A/S) screening at kindergarten, (2) A/S screening at preschool and kindergarten, and (3) photoscreening at preschool and A/S screening at kindergarten. Methods We programmed a probabilistic microsimulation model of amblyopia natural history and response to treatment with screening costs and outcomes estimated from 2 state programs. We calculated the probability that no screening and each of the 3 interventions were most cost-effective per incremental quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and case avoided. Results Assuming a minimal 0.01 utility loss from monocular vision loss, no screening was most cost-effective with a willingness to pay (WTP) of less than $16,000 per QALY gained. A/S screening at kindergarten alone was most cost-effective between a WTP of $17,000 and $21,000. A/S screening at preschool and kindergarten was most cost-effective between a WTP of $22,000 and $75,000, and photoscreening at preschool and A/S screening at kindergarten was most cost-effective at a WTP greater than $75,000. Cost-effectiveness substantially improved when assuming a greater utility loss. All scenarios were cost-effective when assuming a WTP of $10,500 per case of amblyopia cured. Conclusions All 3 screening interventions evaluated are likely to be considered cost-effective relative to many other potential public health programs. The choice of screening option depends on budgetary resources and the value placed on monocular vision loss prevention by funding agencies. PMID:21877675

Reliability-oriented energy storage sizing in wind power systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Zian; Liserre, Marco; Blaabjerg, Frede

2014-01-01

Energy storage can be used to suppress the power fluctuations in wind power systems, and thereby reduce the thermal excursion and improve the reliability. Since the cost of the energy storage in large power application is high, it is crucial to have a better understanding of the relationship...... between the size of the energy storage and the reliability benefit it can generate. Therefore, a reliability-oriented energy storage sizing approach is proposed for the wind power systems, where the power, energy, cost and the control strategy of the energy storage are all taken into account....... With the proposed approach, the computational effort is reduced and the impact of the energy storage system on the reliability of the wind power converter can be quantified....

Design optimization of transformerless grid-connected PV inverters including reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koutroulis, Eftichios; Blaabjerg, Frede

2012-01-01

Of the Electricity (LCOE) generated during the PV system lifetime period is minimized. The LCOE is calculated also considering the failure rates of the components, which affect the reliability performance and lifetime maintenance cost of the PV inverter. A design example is presented, demonstrating that compared...... to the non-optimized PV inverter structures, the PV inverters designed using the proposed optimization methodology exhibit lower total manufacturing and lifetime maintenance cost and inject more energy into the electric-grid and by that minimizing LCOE.......This paper presents a new methodology for optimal design of transformerless Photovoltaic (PV) inverters targeting a cost-effective deployment of grid-connected PV systems. The optimal values and types of the PV inverter components are calculated such that the PV inverter Levelized Cost...

Reliability Based Optimization of Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1987-01-01

The optimization problem to design structural systems such that the reliability is satisfactory during the whole lifetime of the structure is considered in this paper. Some of the quantities modelling the loads and the strength of the structure are modelled as random variables. The reliability...... is estimated using first. order reliability methods ( FORM ). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement....... For these optimization problems it is described how a sensitivity analysis can be performed. Next, new optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability based optimization problem sequentially using quasi-analytical derivatives. Finally...

Polymer-free graphene transfer for enhanced reliability of graphene field-effect transistors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Hamin; Park, Ick-Joon; Jung, Dae Yool; Lee, Khang June; Yang, Sang Yoon; Choi, Sung-Yool

2016-01-01

We propose a polymer-free graphene transfer technique for chemical vapor deposition-grown graphene to ensure the intrinsic electrical properties of graphene for reliable transistor applications. The use of a metal catalyst as a supporting layer avoids contamination from the polymer material and graphene films become free of polymer residue after the transfer process. Atomic force microscopy and Raman spectroscopy indicate that the polymer-free transferred graphene shows closer properties to intrinsic graphene properties. The reliability of graphene field-effect transistors (GFETs) was investigated through the analysis of the negative gate bias-stress-induced instability. This work reveals the effect of polymer residues on the reliability of GFETs, and that the developed new polymer-free transfer method enhances the reliability. (letter)

Tuition fees and sunk-cost effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ketel, N.; Linde, J.; Oosterbeek, H.; van der Klaauw, B.

2016-01-01

This article reports on a field experiment testing for sunk-cost effects in an education setting. Students signing up for extra-curricular tutorial sessions randomly received a discount on the tuition fee. The sunk-cost effect predicts that students who pay more will attend more tutorial sessions,

Power transformer reliability modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schijndel, van A.

2010-01-01

Problem description Electrical power grids serve to transport and distribute electrical power with high reliability and availability at acceptable costs and risks. These grids play a crucial though preferably invisible role in supplying sufficient power in a convenient form. Today’s society has

Cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment shortening: a model-based analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez, G B; Dowdy, D W; Bastos, M L; Zwerling, A; Sweeney, S; Foster, N; Trajman, A; Islam, M A; Kapiga, S; Sinanovic, E; Knight, G M; White, R G; Wells, W A; Cobelens, F G; Vassall, A

2016-12-01

Despite improvements in treatment success rates for tuberculosis (TB), current six-month regimen duration remains a challenge for many National TB Programmes, health systems, and patients. There is increasing investment in the development of shortened regimens with a number of candidates in phase 3 trials. We developed an individual-based decision analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical four-month regimen for first-line treatment of TB, assuming non-inferiority to current regimens of six-month duration. The model was populated using extensive, empirically-collected data to estimate the economic impact on both health systems and patients of regimen shortening for first-line TB treatment in South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Tanzania. We explicitly considered 'real world' constraints such as sub-optimal guideline adherence. From a societal perspective, a shortened regimen, priced at USD1 per day, could be a cost-saving option in South Africa, Brazil, and Tanzania, but would not be cost-effective in Bangladesh when compared to one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Incorporating 'real world' constraints reduces cost-effectiveness. Patient-incurred costs could be reduced in all settings. From a health service perspective, increased drug costs need to be balanced against decreased delivery costs. The new regimen would remain a cost-effective option, when compared to each countries' GDP per capita, even if new drugs cost up to USD7.5 and USD53.8 per day in South Africa and Brazil; this threshold was above USD1 in Tanzania and under USD1 in Bangladesh. Reducing the duration of first-line TB treatment has the potential for substantial economic gains from a patient perspective. The potential economic gains for health services may also be important, but will be context-specific and dependent on the appropriate pricing of any new regimen.

Some Observations on Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Geske, Terry G.

1979-01-01

The general nature of cost-effectiveness analysis is discussed, analytical frameworks for conducting cost-effectiveness studies are described, and some of the problems inherent in measuring educational costs and in assessing program effectiveness are addressed. (Author/IRT)

A cost modelling system for cloud computing

OpenAIRE

Ajeh, Daniel; Ellman, Jeremy; Keogh, Shelagh

2014-01-01

An advance in technology unlocks new opportunities for organizations to increase their productivity, efficiency and process automation while reducing the cost of doing business as well. The emergence of cloud computing addresses these prospects through the provision of agile systems that are scalable, flexible and reliable as well as cost effective. Cloud computing has made hosting and deployment of computing resources cheaper and easier with no up-front charges but pay per-use flexible payme...

Contribution to high voltage matrix switches reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lausenaz, Yvan

2000-01-01

Nowadays, power electronic equipment requirements are important, concerning performances, quality and reliability. On the other hand, costs have to be reduced in order to satisfy the market rules. To provide cheap, reliability and performances, many standard components with mass production are developed. But the construction of specific products must be considered following these two different points: in one band you can produce specific components, with delay, over-cost problems and eventuality quality and reliability problems, in the other and you can use standard components in a adapted topologies. The CEA of Pierrelatte has adopted this last technique of power electronic conception for the development of these high voltage pulsed power converters. The technique consists in using standard components and to associate them in series and in parallel. The matrix constitutes high voltage macro-switch where electrical parameters are distributed between the synchronized components. This study deals with the reliability of these structures. It brings up the high reliability aspect of MOSFETs matrix associations. Thanks to several homemade test facilities, we obtained lots of data concerning the components we use. The understanding of defects propagation mechanisms in matrix structures has allowed us to put forwards the necessity of robust drive system, adapted clamping voltage protection, and careful geometrical construction. All these reliability considerations in matrix associations have notably allowed the construction of a new matrix structure regrouping all solutions insuring reliability. Reliable and robust, this product has already reaches the industrial stage. (author) [fr

Acquisition of reliable vacuum hardware for large accelerator systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welch, K.M.

1995-01-01

Credible and effective communications prove to be the major challenge in the acquisition of reliable vacuum hardware. Technical competence is necessary but not sufficient. The authors must effectively communicate with management, sponsoring agencies, project organizations, service groups, staff and with vendors. Most of Deming's 14 quality assurance tenants relate to creating an enlightened environment of good communications. All projects progress along six distinct, closely coupled, dynamic phases. All six phases are in a state of perpetual change. These phases and their elements are discussed, with emphasis given to the acquisition phase and its related vocabulary. Large projects require great clarity and rigor as poor communications can be costly. For rigor to be cost effective, it can't be pedantic. Clarity thrives best in a low-risk, team environment

Cost-effective conservation planning: lessons from economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Duke, Joshua M; Dundas, Steven J; Messer, Kent D

2013-08-15

Economists advocate that the billions of public dollars spent on conservation be allocated to achieve the largest possible social benefit. This is "cost-effective conservation"-a process that incorporates both monetized benefits and costs. Though controversial, cost-effective conservation is poorly understood and rarely implemented by planners. Drawing from the largest publicly financed conservation programs in the United States, this paper seeks to improve the communication from economists to planners and to overcome resistance to cost-effective conservation. Fifteen practical lessons are distilled, including the negative implications of limiting selection with political constraints, using nonmonetized benefit measures or benefit indices, ignoring development risk, using incomplete cost measures, employing cost measures sequentially, and using benefit indices to capture costs. The paper highlights interrelationships between benefits and complications such as capitalization and intertemporal planning. The paper concludes by identifying the challenges at the research frontier, including incentive problems associated with adverse selection, additionality, and slippage. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A review on cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of psychosocial care in cancer patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Femke Jansen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Several psychosocial care interventions have been found effective in improving psychosocial outcomes in cancer patients. At present, there is increasingly being asked for information on the value for money of this type of intervention. This review therefore evaluates current evidence from studies investigating cost-effectiveness or cost-utility of psychosocial care in cancer patients. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed and Web of Science yielding 539 unique records, of which 11 studies were included in the study. Studies were mainly performed in breast cancer populations or mixed cancer populations. Studied interventions included collaborative care (four studies, group interventions (four studies, individual psychological support (two studies, and individual psycho-education (one study. Seven studies assessed the cost-utility of psychosocial care (based on quality-adjusted-life-years while three studies investigated its cost-effectiveness (based on profile of mood states [mood], Revised Impact of Events Scale [distress], 12-Item Health Survey [mental health], or Fear of Progression Questionnaire [fear of cancer progression]. One study did both. Costs included were intervention costs (three studies, intervention and direct medical costs (five studies, or intervention, direct medical, and direct nonmedical costs (three studies. In general, results indicated that psychosocial care is likely to be cost-effective at different, potentially acceptable, willingness-to-pay thresholds. Further research should be performed to provide more clear information as to which psychosocial care interventions are most cost-effective and for whom. In addition, more research should be performed encompassing potential important cost drivers from a societal perspective, such as productivity losses or informal care costs, in the analyses.

MEMS reliability: coming of age

Science.gov (United States)

Douglass, Michael R.

2008-02-01

In today's high-volume semiconductor world, one could easily take reliability for granted. As the MOEMS/MEMS industry continues to establish itself as a viable alternative to conventional manufacturing in the macro world, reliability can be of high concern. Currently, there are several emerging market opportunities in which MOEMS/MEMS is gaining a foothold. Markets such as mobile media, consumer electronics, biomedical devices, and homeland security are all showing great interest in microfabricated products. At the same time, these markets are among the most demanding when it comes to reliability assurance. To be successful, each company developing a MOEMS/MEMS device must consider reliability on an equal footing with cost, performance and manufacturability. What can this maturing industry learn from the successful development of DLP technology, air bag accelerometers and inkjet printheads? This paper discusses some basic reliability principles which any MOEMS/MEMS device development must use. Examples from the commercially successful and highly reliable Digital Micromirror Device complement the discussion.

An Optimal Operating Strategy for Battery Life Cycle Costs in Electric Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yinghua Han

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Impact on petroleum based vehicles on the environment, cost, and availability of fuel has led to an increased interest in electric vehicle as a means of transportation. Battery is a major component in an electric vehicle. Economic viability of these vehicles depends on the availability of cost-effective batteries. This paper presents a generalized formulation for determining the optimal operating strategy and cost optimization for battery. Assume that the deterioration of the battery is stochastic. Under the assumptions, the proposed operating strategy for battery is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem considering reliability and failure number. And an explicit expression of the average cost rate is derived for battery lifetime. Results show that the proposed operating strategy enhances the availability and reliability at a low cost.

Reliability: How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction, the (net) present value of reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleh, J.H.; Marais, K.

2006-01-01

In this article, we link an engineering concept, reliability, to a financial and managerial concept, net present value, by exploring the impact of a system's reliability on its revenue generation capability. The framework here developed for non-repairable systems quantitatively captures the value of reliability from a financial standpoint. We show that traditional present value calculations of engineering systems do not account for system reliability, thus over-estimate a system's worth and can therefore lead to flawed investment decisions. It is therefore important to involve reliability engineers upfront before investment decisions are made in technical systems. In addition, the analyses here developed help designers identify the optimal level of reliability that maximizes a system's net present value-the financial value reliability provides to the system minus the cost to achieve this level of reliability. Although we recognize that there are numerous considerations driving the specification of an engineering system's reliability, we contend that the financial analysis of reliability here developed should be made available to decision-makers to support in part, or at least be factored into, the system reliability specification

Photovoltaic energy cost limit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coiante, D.

1992-01-01

Referring to a photovoltaic system for grid connected applications, a parametric expression of kWh cost is derived. The limit of kWh cost is carried out extrapolating the values of cost components to their lowest figure. The reliability of the forecast is checked by disaggregating kWh cost in direct and indirect costs and by discussing the possible cost reduction of each component

Cost analysis of breast cancer diagnostic assessment programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Honein-AbouHaidar, G N; Hoch, J S; Dobrow, M J; Stuart-McEwan, T; McCready, D R; Gagliardi, A R

2017-10-01

Diagnostic assessment programs (daps) appear to improve the diagnosis of cancer, but evidence of their cost-effectiveness is lacking. Given that no earlier study used secondary financial data to estimate the cost of diagnostic tests in the province of Ontario, we explored how to use secondary financial data to retrieve the cost of key diagnostic test services in daps, and we tested the reliability of that cost-retrieving method with hospital-reported costs in preparation for future cost-effectiveness studies. We powered our sample at an alpha of 0.05, a power of 80%, and a margin of error of ±5%, and randomly selected a sample of eligible patients referred to a dap for suspected breast cancer during 1 January-31 December 2012. Confirmatory diagnostic tests received by each patient were identified in medical records. Canadian Classification of Health Intervention procedure codes were used to search the secondary financial data Web portal at the Ontario Case Costing Initiative for an estimate of the direct, indirect, and total costs of each test. The hospital-reported cost of each test received was obtained from the host-hospital's finance department. Descriptive statistics were used to calculate the cost of individual or group confirmatory diagnostic tests, and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test or the paired t-test was used to compare the Ontario Case Costing Initiative and hospital-reported costs. For the 191 identified patients with suspected breast cancer, the estimated total cost of $72,195.50 was not significantly different from the hospital-reported total cost of $72,035.52 ( p = 0.24). Costs differed significantly when multiple tests to confirm the diagnosis were completed during one patient visit and when confirmatory tests reported in hospital data and in medical records were discrepant. The additional estimated cost for non-salaried physicians delivering diagnostic services was $28,387.50. It was feasible to use secondary financial data to retrieve the cost

Safety and reliability of automatization software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kapp, K; Daum, R [Karlsruhe Univ. (TH) (Germany, F.R.). Lehrstuhl fuer Angewandte Informatik, Transport- und Verkehrssysteme

1979-02-01

Automated technical systems have to meet very high requirements concerning safety, security and reliability. Today, modern computers, especially microcomputers, are used as integral parts of those systems. In consequence computer programs must work in a safe and reliable mannter. Methods are discussed which allow to construct safe and reliable software for automatic systems such as reactor protection systems and to prove that the safety requirements are met. As a result it is shown that only the method of total software diversification can satisfy all safety requirements at tolerable cost. In order to achieve a high degree of reliability, structured and modular programming in context with high level programming languages are recommended.

Cost of care of haemophilia with inhibitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Minno, M N D; Di Minno, G; Di Capua, M; Cerbone, A M; Coppola, A

2010-01-01

In Western countries, the treatment of patients with inhibitors is presently the most challenging and serious issue in haemophilia management, direct costs of clotting factor concentrates accounting for >98% of the highest economic burden absorbed for the healthcare of patients in this setting. Being designed to address questions of resource allocation and effectiveness, decision models are the golden standard to reliably assess the overall economic implications of haemophilia with inhibitors in terms of mortality, bleeding-related morbidity, and severity of arthropathy. However, presently, most data analyses stem from retrospective short-term evaluations, that only allow for the analysis of direct health costs. In the setting of chronic diseases, the cost-utility analysis, that takes into account the beneficial effects of a given treatment/healthcare intervention in terms of health-related quality of life, is likely to be the most appropriate approach. To calculate net benefits, the quality adjusted life year, that significantly reflects such health gain, has to be compared with specific economic impacts. Differences in data sources, in medical practice and/or in healthcare systems and costs, imply that most current pharmacoeconomic analyses are confined to a narrow healthcare payer perspective. Long-term/lifetime prospective or observational studies, devoted to a careful definition of when to start a treatment; of regimens (dose and type of product) to employ, and of inhibitor population (children/adults, low-responding/high responding inhibitors) to study, are thus urgently needed to allow for newer insights, based on reliable data sources into resource allocation, effectiveness and cost-utility analysis in the treatment of haemophiliacs with inhibitors.

Systematic Review of the Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Rapid Endovascular Therapy for Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Sevick, Laura K; Ghali, Sarah; Hill, Michael D; Danthurebandara, Vishva; Lorenzetti, Diane L; Noseworthy, Tom; Spackman, Eldon; Clement, Fiona

2017-09-01

Rapid endovascular therapy (EVT) is an emerging treatment option for acute ischemic stroke. Several economic evaluations have been published examining the cost-effectiveness of EVT, and many international bodies are currently making adoption decisions. The objective of this study was to establish the cost-effectiveness of EVT for ischemic stroke patients and to synthesize all the publicly available economic literature. A systematic review of the published literature was conducted to identify economic evaluations and cost analyses of EVT for acute ischemic stroke patients. Systematic review best practices were followed, and study quality was assessed. Four-hundred sixty-three articles were identified from electronic databases. After deduplication, abstract review, and full-text review, 17 studies were included. Seven of the studies were cost analyses, and 10 were cost-effectiveness studies. Generally, the cost analyses reported on the cost of the approach/procedure or the hospitalization costs associated with EVT. All of the cost-effectiveness studies reported a cost per quality-adjusted life year as the primary outcomes. Studies varied in regards to the costs considered, the perspective adopted, and the time horizon used. All the studies reported a cost per quality-adjusted life year of cost and cost-effectiveness of EVT. The cost analyses suggested that although EVT was associated with higher costs, it also resulted in improved patient outcomes. From the cost-effectiveness studies, EVT seems to be good value for money when a threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life year gained is adopted. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

What Does It Cost a University to Educate One Student

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Andrea Lotho Santiago

2007-02-01

Full Text Available A dilemma administrators continually face is whether to continue offering degree programs despite low student uptake, especially because producing reliable cost data to aid decision making can prove difficult. Often, a university determines a standard cost per credit or unit and uses this figure as a basis for computing the total cost of running a degree program. This is then compared to a revenue stream and the difference, whether positive or negative, is used in decision making. However, this method of computing costs, although appealing for its simplicity, may fail to capture the effects of economies that may arise as one school or college services another. In this paper, we use a basic cost accounting methodology applied to the higher education system of the Philippines to compute for a cost per degree per student for a sample of public and private universities. Although the methodology is more time consuming, the computed figures are deemed closer to actual costs and, thus, we argue, are more reliable as inputs to financial decision making.

Reliability Equivalence to Symmetrical UHVDC Transmission Systems Considering Redundant Structure Configuration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xing Jiang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the ultra-high voltage direct current (UHVDC transmission system has been developed rapidly for its significant long-distance, high-capacity and low-loss properties. Equipment failures and overall outages of the UHVDC system have increasingly vital influence on the power supply of the receiving end grid. To improve the reliability level of UHVDC systems, a quantitative selection and configuration approach of redundant structures is proposed in this paper, which is based on multi-state reliability equivalence. Specifically, considering the symmetry characteristic of an UHVDC system, a state space model is established as a monopole rather than a bipole, which effectively reduces the state space dimensions to be considered by deducing the reliability merging operator of two poles. Considering the standby effect of AC filters and the recovery effect of converter units, the number of available converter units and corresponding probability are expressed with in universal generating function (UGF form. Then, a sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the impact of component reliability parameters on system reliability and determine the most specific devices that should be configured in the redundant structure. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis is utilized to help determine the optimal scheme of redundant devices. Case studies are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method. Based on the numerical results, configuring a set of redundant transformers is indicated to be of the greatest significance to improve the reliability level of UHVDC transmission systems.

Reliability and cost/worth evaluation of generating systems utilizing wind and solar energy

Science.gov (United States)

Bagen

The utilization of renewable energy resources such as wind and solar energy for electric power supply has received considerable attention in recent years due to adverse environmental impacts and fuel cost escalation associated with conventional generation. At the present time, wind and/or solar energy sources are utilized to generate electric power in many applications. Wind and solar energy will become important sources for power generation in the future because of their environmental, social and economic benefits, together with public support and government incentives. The wind and sunlight are, however, unstable and variable energy sources, and behave far differently than conventional sources. Energy storage systems are, therefore, often required to smooth the fluctuating nature of the energy conversion system especially in small isolated applications. The research work presented in this thesis is focused on the development and application of reliability and economic benefits assessment associated with incorporating wind energy, solar energy and energy storage in power generating systems. A probabilistic approach using sequential Monte Carlo simulation was employed in this research and a number of analyses were conducted with regards to the adequacy and economic assessment of generation systems containing wind energy, solar energy and energy storage. The evaluation models and techniques incorporate risk index distributions and different operating strategies associated with diesel generation in small isolated systems. Deterministic and probabilistic techniques are combined in this thesis using a system well-being approach to provide useful adequacy indices for small isolated systems that include renewable energy and energy storage. The concepts presented and examples illustrated in this thesis will help power system planners and utility managers to assess the reliability and economic benefits of utilizing wind energy conversion systems, solar energy conversion

Cost effectiveness of radon mitigation in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Letourneau, E.G.; Krewski, D.; Zielinski, J.M.; McGregor, R.G.

1992-01-01

This paper examines the cost effectiveness of comprehensive strategies for reducing exposure to radon gas in indoor air in Canadian homes. The analysis is conducted within the context of a general framework for risk management programme evaluation which includes well-known evaluation techniques such as cost effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses as special cases. Based on this analysis, it is clear that any comprehensive programme to reduce exposure to environmental radon will be extremely expensive, and may not be justifiable in terms of health impact, particularly when considered in relation to other public health programmes. Testing of homes at the point of sale and installing sub-slab suction equipment to reduce exposure to indoor radon where necessary appears to be a relatively cost-effective radon mitigation strategy. In general, radon mitigation was found to be most cost effective in cities with relatively high levels of radon. (author)

Evaluation of Stock Management Strategies Reliability at Dependent Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukinskiy Valery

2017-03-01

Full Text Available For efficiently increasing the logistic systems, the core specialists’ attention has to be directed to reducing costs and increasing supply chains reliability. A decent attention to costs reduction has already been paid, so it can be stated that in this way there is a significant progress. But the problem of reliability evaluation is still insufficiently explored, particularly, in such an important sphere as inventory management at the dependent demand.

System Reliability Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Tae Jin

2005-02-01

This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

Prevention of Biofouling in Hydrocarbons by Antimicrobial Vessel and Pipeline Coating for Cost Savings and an Increase in Safety and Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maximilian Lackner

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Hydrocarbons are prone to bacterial and fungal contamination. Bacteria and fungi live and proliferate in water droplets within the fuels and on surfaces surrounding them. This can cause corrosion in oil exploration and production, clogging of fuel lines in aviation and higher emissions in diesel combustion engines to state few examples. State-of-the-art is the addition of biocides to fuels, which is associated with several disadvantages like costs and environmental burden. A novel technology to prevent biofouling in hydrocarbons is presented here. By applying an anti-microbial coating to the surfaces of hydrocarbon processing units, pipelines, and fuel containers, microbial growth can effectively be reduced. The coating can be a paint or varnish, for instance, epoxy resin as already used in aircraft fuel tanks to today. It contains transition metal oxides, thus an acidic surface is produced. This acidic surface was shown to eliminate up to 109 colony forming units per milliliter (CFU.ml-1 of bacteria of the species of agrobacterium tumefaciens and others in diesel, kerosene, and biodiesel, where other anti-microbial coatings based on silver did not perform. The technology has the potential to bring huge cost savings to the oil and gas industry, alongside an increase in safety and equipment reliability.

Space solar array reliability: A study and recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.; Rodiek, Julie A.

2008-12-01

Providing reliable power over the anticipated mission life is critical to all satellites; therefore solar arrays are one of the most vital links to satellite mission success. Furthermore, solar arrays are exposed to the harshest environment of virtually any satellite component. In the past 10 years 117 satellite solar array anomalies have been recorded with 12 resulting in total satellite failure. Through an in-depth analysis of satellite anomalies listed in the Airclaim's Ascend SpaceTrak database, it is clear that solar array reliability is a serious, industry-wide issue. Solar array reliability directly affects the cost of future satellites through increased insurance premiums and a lack of confidence by investors. Recommendations for improving reliability through careful ground testing, standardization of testing procedures such as the emerging AIAA standards, and data sharing across the industry will be discussed. The benefits of creating a certified module and array testing facility that would certify in-space reliability will also be briefly examined. Solar array reliability is an issue that must be addressed to both reduce costs and ensure continued viability of the commercial and government assets on orbit.

Is expanding Medicare coverage cost-effective?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muennig Peter

2005-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Proposals to expand Medicare coverage tend to be expensive, but the value of services purchased is not known. This study evaluates the efficiency of the average private supplemental insurance plan for Medicare recipients. Methods Data from the National Health Interview Survey, the National Death Index, and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey were analyzed to estimate the costs, changes in life expectancy, and health-related quality of life gains associated with providing private supplemental insurance coverage for Medicare beneficiaries. Model inputs included socio-demographic, health, and health behavior characteristics. Parameter estimates from regression models were used to predict quality-adjusted life years (QALYs and costs associated with private supplemental insurance relative to Medicare only. Markov decision analysis modeling was then employed to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results Medicare supplemental insurance is associated with increased health care utilization, but the additional costs associated with this utilization are offset by gains in quality-adjusted life expectancy. The incremental cost-effectiveness of private supplemental insurance is approximately $24,000 per QALY gained relative to Medicare alone. Conclusion Supplemental insurance for Medicare beneficiaries is a good value, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparable to medical interventions commonly deemed worthwhile.

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2010: February 18-19, 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, J.

2013-11-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2011: February 16-17, 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, S.

2013-11-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2013: February 26-27, 2013

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, S.

2013-10-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2014: February 25-26, 2014

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, S.

2014-02-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Integrated Reliability-Based Optimal Design of Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

1987-01-01

In conventional optimal design of structural systems the weight or the initial cost of the structure is usually used as objective function. Further, the constraints require that the stresses and/or strains at some critical points have to be less than some given values. Finally, all variables......-based optimal design is discussed. Next, an optimal inspection and repair strategy for existing structural systems is presented. An optimization problem is formulated , where the objective is to minimize the expected total future cost of inspection and repair subject to the constraint that the reliability...... value. The reliability can be measured from an element and/or a systems point of view. A number of methods to solve reliability-based optimization problems has been suggested, see e.g. Frangopol [I]. Murotsu et al. (2], Thoft-Christensen & Sørensen (3] and Sørensen (4). For structures where...

Global cost-effectiveness of GDM screening and management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Weile, Louise K K; Kahn, James G; Marseille, Elliot

2015-01-01

a systematic search and abstraction of cost-effectiveness and cost-utility studies from 2002 to 2014. We standardized all findings to 2014 US dollars. We found that cost-effectiveness ratios varied widely. Most variation was found to be due to differences in geographic setting, diagnostic criteria...... and intervention approaches, and outcomes (e.g., inclusion or exclusion of long-term type 2 diabetes risk and associated costs). We concluded that incorporation of long-term benefits of GDM screening and treatment has huge impact on cost-effectiveness estimates. Based on the large methodological heterogeneity...

10 CFR 436.13 - Presuming cost-effectiveness results.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Presuming cost-effectiveness results. 436.13 Section 436... Methodology and Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.13 Presuming cost-effectiveness results. (a) If the investment and other costs for an energy or water conservation measure considered for retrofit to...

Approach for an integral power transformer reliability model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schijndel, van A.; Wouters, P.A.A.F.; Steennis, E.F.; Wetzer, J.M.

2012-01-01

In electrical power transmission and distribution networks power transformers represent a crucial group of assets both in terms of reliability and investments. In order to safeguard the required quality at acceptable costs, decisions must be based on a reliable forecast of future behaviour. The aim

Effectiveness of different approaches to disseminating traveler information on travel time reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

The second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Reliability program aims to improve trip time reliability by reducing the frequency and effects of events that cause travel times to fluctuate unpredictably. Congestion caused by unreliable, or n...

Cost-effectiveness analysis and innovation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jena, Anupam B; Philipson, Tomas J

2008-09-01

While cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis has provided a guide to allocating often scarce resources spent on medical technologies, less emphasis has been placed on the effect of such criteria on the behavior of innovators who make health care technologies available in the first place. A better understanding of the link between innovation and cost-effectiveness analysis is particularly important given the large role of technological change in the growth in health care spending and the growing interest of explicit use of CE thresholds in leading technology adoption in several Westernized countries. We analyze CE analysis in a standard market context, and stress that a technology's cost-effectiveness is closely related to the consumer surplus it generates. Improved CE therefore often clashes with interventions to stimulate producer surplus, such as patents. We derive the inconsistency between technology adoption based on CE analysis and economic efficiency. Indeed, static efficiency, dynamic efficiency, and improved patient health may all be induced by the cost-effectiveness of the technology being at its worst level. As producer appropriation of the social surplus of an innovation is central to the dynamic efficiency that should guide CE adoption criteria, we exemplify how appropriation can be inferred from existing CE estimates. For an illustrative sample of technologies considered, we find that the median technology has an appropriation of about 15%. To the extent that such incentives are deemed either too low or too high compared to dynamically efficient levels, CE thresholds may be appropriately raised or lowered to improve dynamic efficiency.

Transportation reliability and trip satisfaction.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-01

Travel delays and associated costs have become a major problem in Michigan over the : past several decades as congestion has continued to increase, creating significant negative : impacts on travel reliability on many roadways throughout the State. T...

Cost-effective method of manufacturing a 3D MEMS optical switch

Science.gov (United States)

Carr, Emily; Zhang, Ping; Keebaugh, Doug; Chau, Kelvin

2009-02-01

growth of data and video transport networks. All-optical switching eliminates the need for optical-electrical conversion offering the ability to switch optical signals transparently: independent of data rates, formats and wavelength. It also provides network operators much needed automation capabilities to create, monitor and protect optical light paths. To further accelerate the market penetration, it is necessary to identify a path to reduce the manufacturing cost significantly as well as enhance the overall system performance, uniformity and reliability. Currently, most MEMS optical switches are assembled through die level flip-chip bonding with either epoxies or solder bumps. This is due to the alignment accuracy requirements of the switch assembly, defect matching of individual die, and cost of the individual components. In this paper, a wafer level assembly approach is reported based on silicon fusion bonding which aims to reduce the packaging time, defect count and cost through volume production. This approach is successfully demonstrated by the integration of two 6-inch wafers: a mirror array wafer and a "snap-guard" wafer, which provides a mechanical structure on top of the micromirror to prevent electrostatic snap-down. The direct silicon-to-silicon bond eliminates the CTEmismatch and stress issues caused by non-silicon bonding agents. Results from a completed integrated switch assembly will be presented, which demonstrates the reliability and uniformity of some key parameters of this MEMS optical switch.

Reliability assessment of distribution system with the integration of renewable distributed generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adefarati, T.; Bansal, R.C.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Addresses impacts of renewable DG on the reliability of the distribution system. • Multi-objective formulation for maximizing the cost saving with integration of DG. • Uses Markov model to study the stochastic characteristics of the major components. • The investigation is done using modified RBTS bus test distribution system. • Proposed approach is useful for electric utilities to enhance the reliability. - Abstract: Recent studies have shown that renewable energy resources will contribute substantially to future energy generation owing to the rapid depletion of fossil fuels. Wind and solar energy resources are major sources of renewable energy that have the ability to reduce the energy crisis and the greenhouse gases emitted by the conventional power plants. Reliability assessment is one of the key indicators to measure the impact of the renewable distributed generation (DG) units in the distribution networks and to minimize the cost that is associated with power outage. This paper presents a comprehensive reliability assessment of the distribution system that satisfies the consumer load requirements with the penetration of wind turbine generator (WTG), electric storage system (ESS) and photovoltaic (PV). A Markov model is proposed to access the stochastic characteristics of the major components of the renewable DG resources as well as their influence on the reliability of a conventional distribution system. The results obtained from the case studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of using WTG, ESS and PV to enhance the reliability of the conventional distribution system.

Optimization of reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for inertial navigation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Xiuhong; Duan, Fuhai; Tian, Heng; Wei, Xuedong

2015-01-01

The goal of this study is to propose a reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for a complex structure Inertial Navigation System (INS) with several redundant components. GO Methodology is applied to build the INS reliability analysis model—GO chart. Components Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and system reliability are updated dynamically based on the combination of components lifetime distribution function, stress samples, and the system GO chart. Considering the redundant design in INS, maintenance time is based not only on components RUL, but also (and mainly) on the timing of when system reliability fails to meet the set threshold. The definition of components maintenance priority balances three factors: components importance to system, risk degree, and detection difficulty. Maintenance Priority Number (MPN) is introduced, which may provide quantitative maintenance priority results for all components. A maintenance unit time cost model is built based on components MPN, components RUL predictive model and maintenance intervals for the optimization of maintenance scope. The proposed scheme can be applied to serve as the reference for INS maintenance. Finally, three numerical examples prove the proposed predictive maintenance scheme is feasible and effective. - Highlights: • A dynamic PdM with a rolling horizon is proposed for INS with redundant components. • GO Methodology is applied to build the system reliability analysis model. • A concept of MPN is proposed to quantify the maintenance sequence of components. • An optimization model is built to select the optimal group of maintenance components. • The optimization goal is minimizing the cost of maintaining system reliability

A cost effective CO2 strategy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

, a scenario-part and a cost-benefit part. Air and sea modes are not analyzed. The model adopts a bottom-up approach to allow a detailed assessment of transport policy measures. Four generic areas of intervention were identified and the likely effect on CO2 emissions, socioeconomic efficiency and other...... are evaluated according to CO2 reduction potential and according to the ‘shadow price’ on a reduction of one ton CO2. The shadow price reflects the costs (and benefits) of the different measures. Comparing the measures it is possible to identify cost effective measures, but these measures are not necessarily...... by the Ministry of Transport, with the Technical University of Denmark as one of the main contributors. The CO2-strategy was to be based on the principle of cost-effectiveness. A model was set up to assist in the assessment. The model consists of a projection of CO2-emissions from road and rail modes from 2020...

Effects of cost metric on cost-effectiveness of protected-area network design in urban landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Burkhalter, J C; Lockwood, J L; Maslo, B; Fenn, K H; Leu, K

2016-04-01

A common goal in conservation planning is to acquire areas that are critical to realizing biodiversity goals in the most cost-effective manner. The way monetary acquisition costs are represented in such planning is an understudied but vital component to realizing cost efficiencies. We sought to design a protected-area network within a forested urban region that would protect 17 birds of conservation concern. We compared the total costs and spatial structure of the optimal protected-area networks produced using three acquisition-cost surrogates (area, agricultural land value, and tax-assessed land value). Using the tax-assessed land values there was a 73% and 78% cost savings relative to networks derived using area or agricultural land value, respectively. This cost reduction was due to the considerable heterogeneity in acquisition costs revealed in tax-assessed land values, especially for small land parcels, and the corresponding ability of the optimization algorithm to identify lower-cost parcels for inclusion that had equal value to our target species. Tax-assessed land values also reflected the strong spatial differences in acquisition costs (US$0.33/m(2)-$55/m(2)) and thus allowed the algorithm to avoid inclusion of high-cost parcels when possible. Our results add to a nascent but growing literature that suggests conservation planners must consider the cost surrogate they use when designing protected-area networks. We suggest that choosing cost surrogates that capture spatial- and size-dependent heterogeneity in acquisition costs may be relevant to establishing protected areas in urbanizing ecosystems. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Cost-effectiveness of osteo-odonto keratoprosthesis in Singapore.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Di; Tan, Anna; Mehta, Jodhbir S; Tan, Donald; Finkelstein, Eric Andrew

2014-01-01

To determine the long-term cost-effectiveness of osteo-odonto keratoprosthesis (OOKP) relative to no treatment among patients with end-stage corneal and ocular surface diseases in Singapore. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on data from a retrospective cohort study. From a health system perspective, we calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of OOKP treatment relative to no treatment over a 30-year horizon, based on data from a cohort of 23 patients who underwent OOKP surgery between 2004 and 2009 at Singapore National Eye Centre. Preoperative and postoperative vision-related quality-of-life values were estimated from patients' visual outcomes and were used to calculate the gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) resulting from OOKP treatment. Unsubsidized costs for surgery, consultations, examinations, medications, follow-up visits, and treatments for complications were retrieved from patients' bills to estimate the total costs associated with OOKP treatment. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the model. Over a 30-year period, OOKP treatment, compared with no treatment, improved QALYs by 3.991 among patients with end-stage corneal and ocular surface diseases at an additional cost of S$67 840 (US$55 150), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of S$17 000/QALY (US$13 820/QALY). Based on commonly cited cost-effectiveness benchmarks, the OOKP is a cost-effective treatment for patients with end-stage corneal and ocular surface diseases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-variant reliability assessment through equivalent stochastic process transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zequn; Chen, Wei

2016-01-01

Time-variant reliability measures the probability that an engineering system successfully performs intended functions over a certain period of time under various sources of uncertainty. In practice, it is computationally prohibitive to propagate uncertainty in time-variant reliability assessment based on expensive or complex numerical models. This paper presents an equivalent stochastic process transformation approach for cost-effective prediction of reliability deterioration over the life cycle of an engineering system. To reduce the high dimensionality, a time-independent reliability model is developed by translating random processes and time parameters into random parameters in order to equivalently cover all potential failures that may occur during the time interval of interest. With the time-independent reliability model, an instantaneous failure surface is attained by using a Kriging-based surrogate model to identify all potential failure events. To enhance the efficacy of failure surface identification, a maximum confidence enhancement method is utilized to update the Kriging model sequentially. Then, the time-variant reliability is approximated using Monte Carlo simulations of the Kriging model where system failures over a time interval are predicted by the instantaneous failure surface. The results of two case studies demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to accurately predict the time evolution of system reliability while requiring much less computational efforts compared with the existing analytical approach. - Highlights: • Developed a new approach for time-variant reliability analysis. • Proposed a novel stochastic process transformation procedure to reduce the dimensionality. • Employed Kriging models with confidence-based adaptive sampling scheme to enhance computational efficiency. • The approach is effective for handling random process in time-variant reliability analysis. • Two case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy

Cost, affordability and cost-effectiveness of strategies to control tuberculosis in countries with high HIV prevalence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Williams Brian G

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The HIV epidemic has caused a dramatic increase in tuberculosis (TB in East and southern Africa. Several strategies have the potential to reduce the burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings, and cost and cost-effectiveness analyses can help to prioritize them when budget constraints exist. However, published cost and cost-effectiveness studies are limited. Methods Our objective was to compare the cost, affordability and cost-effectiveness of seven strategies for reducing the burden of TB in countries with high HIV prevalence. A compartmental difference equation model of TB and HIV and recent cost data were used to assess the costs (year 2003 US$ prices and effects (TB cases averted, deaths averted, DALYs gained of these strategies in Kenya during the period 2004–2023. Results The three lowest cost and most cost-effective strategies were improving TB cure rates, improving TB case detection rates, and improving both together. The incremental cost of combined improvements to case detection and cure was below US$15 million per year (7.5% of year 2000 government health expenditure; the mean cost per DALY gained of these three strategies ranged from US$18 to US$34. Antiretroviral therapy (ART had the highest incremental costs, which by 2007 could be as large as total government health expenditures in year 2000. ART could also gain more DALYs than the other strategies, at a cost per DALY gained of around US$260 to US$530. Both the costs and effects of treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (TLTI for HIV+ individuals were low; the cost per DALY gained ranged from about US$85 to US$370. Averting one HIV infection for less than US$250 would be as cost-effective as improving TB case detection and cure rates to WHO target levels. Conclusion To reduce the burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings, the immediate goal should be to increase TB case detection rates and, to the extent possible, improve TB cure rates, preferably

Understanding Cost-Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Discusses the five standard tests used to assess the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency, how states are using these tests, and how the tests can be used to determine the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency measures.

Reliability of power system with open access

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehsani, A.; Ranjbar, A. M.; Fotuhi Firuzabad, M.; Ehsani, M.

2003-01-01

Recently, in many countries, electric utility industry is undergoing considerable changes in regard to its structure and regulation. It can be clearly seen that the thrust towards privatization and deregulation or re regulation of the electric utility industry will introduce numerous reliability problems that will require new criteria and analytical tools that recognize the residual uncertainties in the new environment. In this paper, different risks and uncertainties in competitive electricity markets are briefly introduced; the approach of customers, operators, planners, generation bodies and network providers to the reliability of deregulated system is studied; the impact of dispersed generation on system reliability is evaluated; and finally, the reliability cost/reliability worth issues in the new competitive environment are considered

ACTIVITY-BASED COST ALLOCATION AND FUNCTION ANALYZES IN TRADE

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TÜNDE VERES

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper the author is thinking about the efficiency analyzes of trading. The most important evaluation factors of trade are the sales value, volume and the margin. Of course the easiest and fastest way is to follow the market situation by the turnover but for long term thinking the sales companies need to concentrate also for efficiency. Trading activity has some functions which can deeply effect for the final result and this is the reason to calculate their clear and reliable costs is an important condition of the decision making. The author reviews the cost categories and the basic functions in trading activity to find possible ways getting reliable information.

Cost-effectiveness of antiplatelet drugs after percutaneous coronary intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Wisløff, Torbjørn; Atar, Dan

2016-01-01

Clopidogrel has, for long time, been accepted as the standard treatment for patients who have undergone a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The introduction of prasugrel-and more recently, ticagrelor-has introduced a decision-making problem for clinicians and governments worldwide: to use the cheaper clopidogrel or the more effective, and also more expensive prasugrel or ticagrelor. We aim to give helpful contributions to this debate by analysing the cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel, prasugrel, and ticagrelor compared with each other. We modified a previously developed Markov model of cardiac disease progression. In the model, we followed up cohorts of patients who have recently had a PCI until 100 years or death. Possible events are revascularization, bleeding, acute myocardial infarction, and death. Our analysis shows that ticagrelor is cost-effective in 77% of simulations at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €7700 compared with clopidogrel. Ticagrelor was also cost-effective against prasugrel at a cost-effectiveness ratio of €7800. Given a Norwegian cost-effectiveness threshold of €70 000, both comparisons appear to be clearly cost-effective in favour of ticagrelor. Ticagrelor is cost-effective compared with both clopidogrel and prasugrel for patients who have undergone a PCI.

On preventive maintenance policy of a critical reliability level for system subject to degradation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Y.X.

2003-01-01

Conventional preventive maintenance (PM) policies generally hold same time interval for PM actions and are often applied with known failure modes. The same time interval will give unavoidably decreasing reliabilities at the PM actions for degradation system with imperfect PM effect and the known failure modes may be inaccurate in practice. Therefore, field managers would prefer policy with an acceptable reliability level to keep system often at a good state. A PM policy with the critical reliability level is presented to address the preference of field managers. Through assuming that system after a PM action starts a new failure process, a parameter so-called degradation ratio is introduced to represent the imperfect effect. The policy holds a law that there is same number of failures in the time intervals of various PM cycles, and same degradation ratio for the system reliability or benefit parameters such as the optimal time intervals and the hazard rates between the neighboring PM cycles. This law is valid to any of the failure modes that could be appropriately referred as a 'general isodegrading model', and the degradation ratio as a 'general isodegrading ratio'. In addition, life cycle availability and cost functions are derived for system with the policy. An analysis of the field data of a loading and unloading machine indicates that the reliability, availability and cost in life cycle might be well modeled by the present theory and approach

Evaluating effectiveness and cost of community care for schizophrenic patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Häfner, H; an der Heiden, W

1991-01-01

The two main types of mental health services research are (1) the evaluation of the mental health sector within comprehensive systems of health care and (2) the evaluation of individual mental health facilities or types of care. Depending on the information systems available, the difficulties of evaluating complex systems of care can be partially obviated by using descriptive approaches. Structural quality can be assessed by structural indices, the functioning of a system by monitoring utilization, and the overall effectiveness of a national mental health care system roughly by health indicators. Causal analyses of effectiveness are practical when they are based on individual facilities or types of care, which can be studied as isolated systems on the basis of intervention and outcome variables. Reliable and reproducible results can be achieved only if a standardized intervention is used or if the intervention and its objectives are described clearly, the output indicators are defined in terms of identifiable and repeatable operations. The assets and liabilities of quasi-experimental designs and three types of naturalistic approaches will be discussed. When the cost of a new type of care is compared with the cost of traditional mental health care, the section of the population actually served out of the total of patients with comparable needs for care should be considered. Results from the authors' studies will show how the neglect of this epidemiological aspect can lead to false statements.

Cost-effectiveness and pricing of antibacterial drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhoef, Talitha I; Morris, Stephen

2015-01-01

Growing resistance to antibacterial agents has increased the need for the development of new drugs to treat bacterial infections. Given increasing pressure on limited health budgets, it is important to study the cost-effectiveness of these drugs, as well as their safety and efficacy, to find out whether or not they provide value for money and should be reimbursed. In this article, we systematically reviewed 38 cost-effectiveness analyses of new antibacterial agents. Most studies showed the new antibacterial drugs were cost-effective compared to older generation drugs. Drug pricing is a complicated process, involving different stakeholders, and has a large influence on cost-effectiveness. Value-based pricing is a method to determine the price of a drug at which it can be cost-effective. It is currently unclear what the influence of value-based pricing will be on the prices of new antibacterial agents, but an important factor will be the definition of 'value', which as well as the impact of the drug on patient health might also include other factors such as wider social impact and the health impact of disease. © 2015 The Authors. Chemical Biology & Drug Design Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent Advances in System Reliability Signatures, Multi-state Systems and Statistical Inference

CERN Document Server

Frenkel, Ilia

2012-01-01

Recent Advances in System Reliability discusses developments in modern reliability theory such as signatures, multi-state systems and statistical inference. It describes the latest achievements in these fields, and covers the application of these achievements to reliability engineering practice. The chapters cover a wide range of new theoretical subjects and have been written by leading experts in reliability theory and its applications.  The topics include: concepts and different definitions of signatures (D-spectra),  their  properties and applications  to  reliability of coherent systems and network-type structures; Lz-transform of Markov stochastic process and its application to multi-state system reliability analysis; methods for cost-reliability and cost-availability analysis of multi-state systems; optimal replacement and protection strategy; and statistical inference. Recent Advances in System Reliability presents many examples to illustrate the theoretical results. Real world multi-state systems...

A systematic review of the cost and cost effectiveness of treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, Christopher; Floyd, Katherine

2012-01-01

Around 0.4 million cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) occur each year. Only a small fraction of these cases are treated according to international guidelines. Evidence relevant to decisions about whether to scale-up treatment for MDR-TB includes cost and cost-effectiveness data. Up to 2010, no systematic review of this evidence has been available. Our objective was to conduct a systematic review of the cost and cost effectiveness of treatment for MDR-TB and synthesize the available data. We searched for papers published or prepared for publication in peer-review journals and grey literature using search terms in five languages: English, French, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish. From an initial set of 420 studies, four were included, from Peru, the Philippines, Estonia and Tomsk Oblast in the Russian Federation. Results on costs, effectiveness and cost effectiveness were extracted. Assessment of the quality of each economic evaluation was guided by two existing checklists around which there is broad consensus. Costs were adjusted to a common year of value (2005) to remove distortions caused by inflation, and calculated in two common currencies: $US and international dollars (I$), to standardize for purchasing power parity. Data from the four identified studies were then synthesized using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, to appraise the likely cost and cost effectiveness of MDR-TB treatment in other settings, relative to WHO benchmarks for assessing whether or not an intervention is cost effective. Best estimates are provided as means, with 5th and 95th percentiles of the distributions. The cost per patient for MDR-TB treatment in Estonia, Peru, the Philippines and Tomsk was $US10 880, $US2423, $US3613 and $US14 657, respectively. Best estimates of the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted were $US598 (I$960), $US163 (I$291), $US143 (I$255) and $US745 (I$1059), respectively. The main influences on costs were (i) the model of care

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacological and psychosocial interventions for schizophrenia

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Information on cost-effectiveness of interventions to treat schizophrenia can assist health policy decision making, particularly given the lack of health resources in developing countries like Thailand. This study aims to determine the optimal treatment package, including drug and non-drug interventions, for schizophrenia in Thailand. Methods A Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of typical antipsychotics, generic risperidone, olanzapine, clozapine and family interventions. Health outcomes were measured in disability adjusted life years. We evaluated intervention benefit by estimating a change in disease severity, taking into account potential side effects. Intervention costs included outpatient treatment costs, hospitalization costs as well as time and travel costs of patients and families. Uncertainty was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. A sensitivity analysis of the expected range cost of generic risperidone was undertaken. Results Generic risperidone is more cost-effective than typicals if it can be produced for less than 10 baht per 2 mg tablet. Risperidone was the cheapest treatment with higher drug costs offset by lower hospital costs in comparison to typicals. The most cost-effective combination of treatments was a combination of risperidone (dominant intervention). Adding family intervention has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 1,900 baht/DALY with a 100% probability of a result less than a threshold for very cost-effective interventions of one times GDP or 110,000 baht per DALY. Treating the most severe one third of patients with clozapine instead of risperidone had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 320,000 baht/DALY with just over 50% probability of a result below three times GDP per capita. Conclusions There are good economic arguments to recommend generic risperidone as first line treatment in combination with family intervention. As the uncertainty interval indicates the addition of clozapine

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacological and psychosocial interventions for schizophrenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vos Theo

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Information on cost-effectiveness of interventions to treat schizophrenia can assist health policy decision making, particularly given the lack of health resources in developing countries like Thailand. This study aims to determine the optimal treatment package, including drug and non-drug interventions, for schizophrenia in Thailand. Methods A Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of typical antipsychotics, generic risperidone, olanzapine, clozapine and family interventions. Health outcomes were measured in disability adjusted life years. We evaluated intervention benefit by estimating a change in disease severity, taking into account potential side effects. Intervention costs included outpatient treatment costs, hospitalization costs as well as time and travel costs of patients and families. Uncertainty was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. A sensitivity analysis of the expected range cost of generic risperidone was undertaken. Results Generic risperidone is more cost-effective than typicals if it can be produced for less than 10 baht per 2 mg tablet. Risperidone was the cheapest treatment with higher drug costs offset by lower hospital costs in comparison to typicals. The most cost-effective combination of treatments was a combination of risperidone (dominant intervention. Adding family intervention has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 1,900 baht/DALY with a 100% probability of a result less than a threshold for very cost-effective interventions of one times GDP or 110,000 baht per DALY. Treating the most severe one third of patients with clozapine instead of risperidone had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 320,000 baht/DALY with just over 50% probability of a result below three times GDP per capita. Conclusions There are good economic arguments to recommend generic risperidone as first line treatment in combination with family intervention. As the uncertainty interval indicates

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacological and psychosocial interventions for schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Phanthunane, Pudtan; Vos, Theo; Whiteford, Harvey; Bertram, Melanie

2011-05-13

Information on cost-effectiveness of interventions to treat schizophrenia can assist health policy decision making, particularly given the lack of health resources in developing countries like Thailand. This study aims to determine the optimal treatment package, including drug and non-drug interventions, for schizophrenia in Thailand. A Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of typical antipsychotics, generic risperidone, olanzapine, clozapine and family interventions. Health outcomes were measured in disability adjusted life years. We evaluated intervention benefit by estimating a change in disease severity, taking into account potential side effects. Intervention costs included outpatient treatment costs, hospitalization costs as well as time and travel costs of patients and families. Uncertainty was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. A sensitivity analysis of the expected range cost of generic risperidone was undertaken. Generic risperidone is more cost-effective than typicals if it can be produced for less than 10 baht per 2 mg tablet. Risperidone was the cheapest treatment with higher drug costs offset by lower hospital costs in comparison to typicals. The most cost-effective combination of treatments was a combination of risperidone (dominant intervention). Adding family intervention has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 1,900 baht/DALY with a 100% probability of a result less than a threshold for very cost-effective interventions of one times GDP or 110,000 baht per DALY. Treating the most severe one third of patients with clozapine instead of risperidone had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 320,000 baht/DALY with just over 50% probability of a result below three times GDP per capita. There are good economic arguments to recommend generic risperidone as first line treatment in combination with family intervention. As the uncertainty interval indicates the addition of clozapine may be dominated and there are serious

Reliability of Laterality Effects in a Dichotic Listening Task with Words and Syllables

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Nancy L.; Voyer, Daniel

2004-01-01

Large and reliable laterality effects have been found using a dichotic target detection task in a recent experiment using word stimuli pronounced with an emotional component. The present study tested the hypothesis that the magnitude and reliability of the laterality effects would increase with the removal of the emotional component and variations…

Cooperative Strategies for Maximum-Flow Problem in Uncertain Decentralized Systems Using Reliability Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hadi Heidari Gharehbolagh

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates a multiowner maximum-flow network problem, which suffers from risky events. Uncertain conditions effect on proper estimation and ignoring them may mislead decision makers by overestimation. A key question is how self-governing owners in the network can cooperate with each other to maintain a reliable flow. Hence, the question is answered by providing a mathematical programming model based on applying the triangular reliability function in the decentralized networks. The proposed method concentrates on multiowner networks which suffer from risky time, cost, and capacity parameters for each network’s arcs. Some cooperative game methods such as τ-value, Shapley, and core center are presented to fairly distribute extra profit of cooperation. A numerical example including sensitivity analysis and the results of comparisons are presented. Indeed, the proposed method provides more reality in decision-making for risky systems, hence leading to significant profits in terms of real cost estimation when compared with unforeseen effects.

Reliability benefits of dispersed wind resource development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milligan, M.; Artig, R.

1998-05-01

Generating capacity that is available during the utility peak period is worth more than off-peak capacity. Wind power from a single location might not be available during enough of the peak period to provide sufficient value. However, if the wind power plant is developed over geographically disperse locations, the timing and availability of wind power from these multiple sources could provide a better match with the utility's peak load than a single site. There are other issues that arise when considering disperse wind plant development. Singular development can result in economies of scale and might reduce the costs of obtaining multiple permits and multiple interconnections. However, disperse development can result in cost efficiencies if interconnection can be accomplished at lower voltages or at locations closer to load centers. Several wind plants are in various stages of planning or development in the US. Although some of these are small-scale demonstration projects, significant wind capacity has been developed in Minnesota, with additional developments planned in Wyoming, Iowa and Texas. As these and other projects are planned and developed, there is a need to perform analysis of the value of geographically disperse sites on the reliability of the overall wind plant.This paper uses a production-cost/reliability model to analyze the reliability of several wind sites in the state of Minnesota. The analysis finds that the use of a model with traditional reliability measures does not produce consistent, robust results. An approach based on fuzzy set theory is applied in this paper, with improved results. Using such a model, the authors find that system reliability can be optimized with a mix of disperse wind sites

Reliability of electronic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roca, Jose L.

2001-01-01

Reliability techniques have been developed subsequently as a need of the diverse engineering disciplines, nevertheless they are not few those that think they have been work a lot on reliability before the same word was used in the current context. Military, space and nuclear industries were the first ones that have been involved in this topic, however not only in these environments it is that it has been carried out this small great revolution in benefit of the increase of the reliability figures of the products of those industries, but rather it has extended to the whole industry. The fact of the massive production, characteristic of the current industries, drove four decades ago, to the fall of the reliability of its products, on one hand, because the massively itself and, for other, to the recently discovered and even not stabilized industrial techniques. Industry should be changed according to those two new requirements, creating products of medium complexity and assuring an enough reliability appropriated to production costs and controls. Reliability began to be integral part of the manufactured product. Facing this philosophy, the book describes reliability techniques applied to electronics systems and provides a coherent and rigorous framework for these diverse activities providing a unifying scientific basis for the entire subject. It consists of eight chapters plus a lot of statistical tables and an extensive annotated bibliography. Chapters embrace the following topics: 1- Introduction to Reliability; 2- Basic Mathematical Concepts; 3- Catastrophic Failure Models; 4-Parametric Failure Models; 5- Systems Reliability; 6- Reliability in Design and Project; 7- Reliability Tests; 8- Software Reliability. This book is in Spanish language and has a potentially diverse audience as a text book from academic to industrial courses. (author)

Controlling Campylobacter in the chicken meat chain - Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mangen MJJ; Havelaar AH; Nauta MJ; Koeijer AA de; Wit GA de; LEI; Animal Sciences Group; PZO; MGB

2005-01-01

The aim of this study was the estimation of cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of various interventions to control Campylobacter contamination of broiler meat. The relative risk, the intervention costs, the disease burden (expressed in Disability Adjusted Live Years (DALYs)) and the

Establishing a cost model when estimating product cost in early design phases

OpenAIRE

Jeppsson, Johanna; Sjöberg, Jessica

2017-01-01

About 75% of the total product cost is determined in the early design phase, which means that the possibilities to affect costs are relatively small when the design phase is completed. For companies, it is therefore vital to conduct reliable cost estimates in the early design phase, when selecting between different design choices. When conducting a cost estimate there are many uncertainties. The aim with this study is therefore to explore how uncertainties regarding product cost can be consid...

A cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis of radiosurgery vs. resection for single-brain metastases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehta, Minesh; Noyes, William; Craig, Bruce; Lamond, John; Auchter, Richard; French, Molly; Johnson, Mark; Levin, Allan; Badie, Behnam; Robbins, Ian; Kinsella, Timothy

1997-01-01

Purpose: The median survival of well-selected patients with single-brain metastases treated with whole-brain irradiation and resection or radiosurgery is comparable, although a randomized trial of these two modalities has not been performed. In this era of cost containment, it is imperative that health-care professionals make fiscally prudent decisions. The present environment necessitates a critical appraisal of apparently equi-efficacious therapeutic modalities, and it is within this context that we present a comparison of the actual costs of resection and radiosurgery for brain metastases. Methods and Materials: Survival and quality of life outcome data for radiation alone or with surgery were obtained from two randomized trials, and radiosurgical results were obtained from a multiinstitutional analysis that specifically evaluated patients meeting surgical criteria. Only linear accelerator radiosurgery data were considered. Cost analysis was performed from a societal view point, and the following parameters were evaluated: actual cost, cost ratios, cost effectiveness, incremental cost effectiveness, cost utility, incremental cost utility, and national cost burden. The computerized billing records for all patients undergoing resection or radiosurgery for single-brain metastases from January 1989 to July 1994 were reviewed. A total of 46 resections and 135 radiosurgery procedures were performed. During the same time period, 454 patients underwent whole-brain radiation alone. An analysis of the entire bill was performed for each procedure, and each itemized cost was assigned a proportionate figure. The relative cost ratios of resection and radiosurgery were compared using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Cost effectiveness of each modality, defined as the cost per year of median survival, was evaluated. Incremental cost effectiveness, defined as the additional cost per year of incremental gain in median survival, compared to the next least expensive modality, was also

Reliability of large superconducting magnets through design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henning, C.D.

1980-01-01

As superconducting magnet systems grow larger and become the central component of major systems involving fusion, magnetohydrodynamics, and high-energy physics, their reliability must be commensurate with the enormous capital investment in the projects. Although the magnet may represent only 15% of the cost of a large system such as the Mirror Fusion Test Facility, its failure would be catastrophic to the entire investment. Effective quality control during construction is one method of ensuring success. However, if the design is unforgiving, even an inordinate amount of effort expended on quality control may be inadequate. Creative design is the most effective way of ensuring magnet reliability and providing a reasonable limit on the amount of quality control needed. For example, by subjecting the last drawing operation is superconductor manufacture to a stress larger than the magnet design stress, a 100% proof test is achieved; cabled conductors offer mechanical redundancy, as do some methods of conductor joining; ground-plane insulation should be multilayered to prevent arcs, and interturn and interlayer insulation spaced to be compatible with the self-extinguishing of arcs during quench voltages; electrical leads should be thermally protected; and guard vacuum spaces can be incorporated to control helium leaks. Many reliable design options are known to magnet designers. These options need to be documented and organized to produce a design guide. Eventually, standard procedures, safety factors, and design codes can lead to reliability in magnets comparable to that obtained in pressure vessels and other structures. Wihout such reliability, large-scale applications in major systems employing magnetic fusion energy, magnetohydrodynamics, or high-energy physics would present unacceptable economic risks

Application of genetic algorithm for reliability allocation in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Joon-Eon; Hwang, Mee-Jung; Sung, Tae-Yong; Jin, Youngho

1999-01-01

Reliability allocation is an optimization process of minimizing the total plant costs subject to the overall plant safety goal constraints. Reliability allocation was applied to determine the reliability characteristics of reactor systems, subsystems, major components and plant procedures that are consistent with a set of top-level performance goals; the core melt frequency, acute fatalities and latent fatalities. Reliability allocation can be performed to improve the design, operation and safety of new and/or existing nuclear power plants. Reliability allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem as well as a global optimization problem. The genetic algorithm, known as one of the most powerful tools for most optimization problems, is applied to the reliability allocation problem of a typical pressurized water reactor in this article. One of the main problems of reliability allocation is defining realistic objective functions. Hence, in order to optimize the reliability of the system, the cost for improving and/or degrading the reliability of the system should be included in the reliability allocation process. We used techniques derived from the value impact analysis to define the realistic objective function in this article

Cost-effectiveness of Chlamydia antibody tests in subfertile women.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiddelers, A A A; Land, J A; Voss, G; Kessels, A G H; Severens, J L

2005-02-01

For the evaluation of tubal function, Chlamydia antibody testing (CAT) has been introduced as a screening test. We compared six CAT screening strategies (five CAT tests and one combination of tests), with respect to their cost-effectiveness, by using IVF pregnancy rate as outcome measure. A decision analytic model was developed based on a source population of 1715 subfertile women. The model incorporates hysterosalpingography (HSG), laparoscopy and IVF. To calculate IVF pregnancy rates, costs, effects, cost-effectiveness and incremental costs per effect of the six different CAT screening strategies were determined. pELISA Medac turned out to be the most cost-effective CAT screening strategy (15 075 per IVF pregnancy), followed by MIF Anilabsystems (15 108). A combination of tests (pELISA Medac and MIF Anilabsystems; 15 127) did not improve the cost-effectiveness of the single strategies. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results are robust for changes in the baseline values of the model parameters. Only small differences were found between the screening strategies regarding the cost-effectiveness, although pELISA Medac was the most cost-effective strategy. Before introducing a particular CAT test into clinical practice, one should consider the effects and consequences of the entire screening strategy, instead of only the diagnostic accuracy of the test used.

Cost effectiveness and efficiency in assistive technology service delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, C G

1993-01-01

In order to develop and maintain a viable service delivery program, the realities of cost effectiveness and cost efficiency in providing assistive technology must be addressed. Cost effectiveness relates to value of the outcome compared to the expenditures. Cost efficiency analyzes how a provider uses available resources to supply goods and services. This paper describes how basic business principles of benefit/cost analysis can be used to determine cost effectiveness. In addition, basic accounting principles are used to illustrate methods of evaluating a program's cost efficiency. Service providers are encouraged to measure their own program's effectiveness and efficiency (and potential viability) in light of current trends. This paper is meant to serve as a catalyst for continued dialogue on this topic.

Design Optimization of Transformerless Grid-Connected PV Inverters Including Reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koutroulis, Eftichios; Blaabjerg, Frede

2013-01-01

such that the PV inverter LCOE generated during the PV system lifetime period is minimized. The LCOE is also calculated considering the failure rates of the components, which affect the reliability performance and lifetime maintenance cost of the PV inverter. A design example is presented, demonstrating...... that compared to the nonoptimized PV inverter structures, the PV inverters designed using the proposed optimization methodology exhibit lower total manufacturing and lifetime maintenance cost and inject more energy into the electric-grid and by that minimizing LCOE.......This paper presents a new methodology for optimal design of transformerless photovoltaic (PV) inverters targeting a cost-effective deployment of grid-connected PV systems. The optimal switching frequency as well as the optimal values and types of the PV inverter components is calculated...

A Reliability-Oriented Design Method for Power Electronic Converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Huai; Zhou, Dao; Blaabjerg, Frede

2013-01-01

Reliability is a crucial performance indicator of power electronic systems in terms of availability, mission accomplishment and life cycle cost. A paradigm shift in the research on reliability of power electronics is going on from simple handbook based calculations (e.g. models in MIL-HDBK-217F h...... and reliability prediction models are provided. A case study on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical component IGBT modules....

Cost effectiveness analysis of indoor radon control measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimoto, Kenzo

1989-01-01

The problem of radon 222 in buildings as a contributor to radiation exposure is described. Five different control methods and the dose reductions that would result from each are analysed. The annualized cost for each control measure was evaluated and the cost effectiveness of each control measure was calculated on the basis of dollars per person-sievert dose reduction. The use of unipolar ion generators for particle removal appears to be the most cost effective and the use of ceiling fans to increase air circulation the least cost effective. 3 figs., 1 tab

A cost-effectiveness analysis of shipboard telemedicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoloff, P H; Garcia, F E; Thomason, J E; Shia, D S

1998-01-01

The U.S. Navy is considering the installation of telemedicine equipment on more than 300 ships. Besides improving the quality of care, benefits would arise from avoiding medical evacuations (MEDEVACs) and returning patients to work more quickly. Because telemedicine has not yet been fully implemented by the Navy, we relied on projections of anticipated savings and costs, rather than actual expenditures, to determine cost-effectiveness. To determine the demand for telemedicine and the cost-effectiveness of various technologies (telephone and fax, e-mail and Internet, video teleconferencing (VTC), teleradiology, and diagnostic instruments), as well as their bandwidth requirements. A panel of Navy medical experts with telemedicine experience reviewed a representative sample of patient visits collected over a 1-year period and estimated the man-day savings and quality-of-care enhancements that might have occurred had telemedicine technologies been available. The savings from potentially avoiding MEDEVACs was estimated from a survey of ships' medical staff. These sample estimates were then projected to the medical workload of the entire fleet. Off-the-shelf telemedicine equipment prices were combined with installation, maintenance, training, and communication costs to obtain the lifecycle costs of the technology. If telemedicine were available to the fleet, ship medical staffs would initiate nearly 19, 000 consults in a year-7% of all patient visits. Telemedicine would enhance quality of care in two-thirds of these consults. Seventeen percent of the MEDEVACs would be preventable with telemedicine (representing 155,000 travel miles), with a savings of $4400 per MEDEVAC. If the ship's communication capabilities were available, e-mail and Internet and telephone and fax would be cost-effective on all ships (including small ships and submarines). Video teleconferencing would be cost-effective on large ships (aircraft carriers and amphibious) only. Teleradiology would be cost-effective

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2012: February 28 - March 1, 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, S.

2013-11-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Assessing the contribution of microgrids to the reliability of distribution networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costa, Paulo Moises [Escola Superior Tecnologia Viseu, Instituto Politecnico Viseu, Campus Politecnico Repeses, 3504-510 Viseu (Portugal); Matos, Manuel A. [INESC Porto, Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal)

2009-02-15

The emergence of microgeneration has recently lead to the concept of microgrid, a network of LV consumers and producers able to export electric energy in some circumstances and also to work in an isolated way in emergency situations. Research on the organization of microgrids, control devices, functionalities and other technical aspects is presently being carried out, in order to establish a consistent technical framework to support the concept. The successful development of the microgrid concept implies the definition of a suitable regulation for its integration on distribution systems. In order to define such a regulation, the identification of costs and benefits that microgrids may bring is a crucial task. Actually, this is the basis for a discussion about the way global costs could be divided among the different agents that benefit from the development of microgrids. Among other aspects, the effect of microgrids on the reliability of the distribution network has been pointed out as an important advantage, due to the ability of isolated operation in emergency situations. This paper identifies the situations where the existence of a microgrid may reduce the interruption rate and duration and thus improve the reliability indices of the distribution network. The relevant expressions necessary to quantify the reliability are presented. An illustrative example is included, where the global influence of the microgrid in the reliability is commented. (author)

Cost-effectiveness of emergency contraception options over 1 year.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellows, Brandon K; Tak, Casey R; Sanders, Jessica N; Turok, David K; Schwarz, Eleanor B

2018-05-01

The copper intrauterine device is the most effective form of emergency contraception and can also provide long-term contraception. The levonorgestrel intrauterine device has also been studied in combination with oral levonorgestrel for women seeking emergency contraception. However, intrauterine devices have higher up-front costs than oral methods, such as ulipristal acetate and levonorgestrel. Health care payers and decision makers (eg, health care insurers, government programs) with financial constraints must determine if the increased effectiveness of intrauterine device emergency contraception methods are worth the additional costs. We sought to compare the cost-effectiveness of 4 emergency contraception strategies-ulipristal acetate, oral levonorgestrel, copper intrauterine device, and oral levonorgestrel plus same-day levonorgestrel intrauterine device-over 1 year from a US payer perspective. Costs (2017 US dollars) and pregnancies were estimated over 1 year using a Markov model of 1000 women seeking emergency contraception. Every 28-day cycle, the model estimated the predicted number of pregnancy outcomes (ie, live birth, ectopic pregnancy, spontaneous abortion, or induced abortion) resulting from emergency contraception failure and subsequent contraception use. Model inputs were derived from published literature and national sources. An emergency contraception strategy was considered cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ie, the cost to prevent 1 additional pregnancy) was less than the weighted average cost of pregnancy outcomes in the United States ($5167). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and probability of being the most cost-effective emergency contraception strategy were calculated from 1000 probabilistic model iterations. One-way sensitivity analyses were used to examine uncertainty in the cost of emergency contraception, subsequent contraception, and pregnancy outcomes as well as the model probabilities. In 1000 women

Reliability constrained decision model for energy service provider incorporating demand response programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahboubi-Moghaddam, Esmaeil; Nayeripour, Majid; Aghaei, Jamshid

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The operation of Energy Service Providers (ESPs) in electricity markets is modeled. • Demand response as the cost-effective solution is used for energy service provider. • The market price uncertainty is modeled using the robust optimization technique. • The reliability of the distribution network is embedded into the framework. • The simulation results demonstrate the benefits of robust framework for ESPs. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) programs are becoming a critical concept for the efficiency of current electric power industries. Therefore, its various capabilities and barriers have to be investigated. In this paper, an effective decision model is presented for the strategic behavior of energy service providers (ESPs) to demonstrate how to participate in the day-ahead electricity market and how to allocate demand in the smart distribution network. Since market price affects DR and vice versa, a new two-step sequential framework is proposed, in which unit commitment problem (UC) is solved to forecast the expected locational marginal prices (LMPs), and successively DR program is applied to optimize the total cost of providing energy for the distribution network customers. This total cost includes the cost of purchased power from the market and distributed generation (DG) units, incentive cost paid to the customers, and compensation cost of power interruptions. To obtain compensation cost, the reliability evaluation of the distribution network is embedded into the framework using some innovative constraints. Furthermore, to consider the unexpected behaviors of the other market participants, the LMP prices are modeled as the uncertainty parameters using the robust optimization technique, which is more practical compared to the conventional stochastic approach. The simulation results demonstrate the significant benefits of the presented framework for the strategic performance of ESPs.

The concept of an ACEX(R) cost-effective first level surface detector trigger in the Pierre Auger Observatory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szadkowski, Z.

2005-01-01

The paper describes the new design of the first level trigger for the surface array in the Pierre Auger Observatory. The previous design was tested in a small test segment called Engineering Array (EA). It confirmed full functionality and reliability of the PLD approach. However, because of the high price of the chips available at that time, a new cost-effective design was developed. Altera ( R) offered cost-effective family, which allows reducing the total budget of the electronics without compromise in the functionality. The here described concept of a splitting of data processing into two sub-channels implemented into the parallel working chips, the chips synchronization and the automatization of internal processing management, together with the fully pipelined AHDL code became the framework for the further implementation in the environmental condition of the Argentinian pampa

Dependent systems reliability estimation by structural reliability approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Estimation of system reliability by classical system reliability methods generally assumes that the components are statistically independent, thus limiting its applicability in many practical situations. A method is proposed for estimation of the system reliability with dependent components, where...... the leading failure mechanism(s) is described by physics of failure model(s). The proposed method is based on structural reliability techniques and accounts for both statistical and failure effect correlations. It is assumed that failure of any component is due to increasing damage (fatigue phenomena...... identification. Application of the proposed method can be found in many real world systems....

Consumer-Operated Service Programs: monetary and donated costs and cost-effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Brian T; Mannix, Danyelle; Freed, Michael C; Campbell, Jean; Johnsen, Matthew; Jones, Kristine; Blyler, Crystal R

2011-01-01

Examine cost differences between Consumer Operated Service Programs (COSPs) as possibly determined by a) size of program, b) use of volunteers and other donated resources, c) cost-of-living differences between program locales, d) COSP model applied, and e) delivery system used to implement the COSP model. As part of a larger evaluation of COSP, data on operating costs, enrollments, and mobilization of donated resources were collected for eight programs representing three COSP models (drop-in centers, mutual support, and education/advocacy training). Because the 8 programs were operated in geographically diverse areas of the US, costs were examined with and without adjustment for differences in local cost of living. Because some COSPs use volunteers and other donated resources, costs were measured with and without these resources being monetized. Scale of operation also was considered as a mediating variable for differences in program costs. Cost per visit, cost per consumer per quarter, and total program cost were calculated separately for funds spent and for resources donated for each COSP. Differences between COSPs in cost per consumer and cost per visit seem better explained by economies of scale and delivery system used than by cost-of-living differences between program locations or COSP model. Given others' findings that different COSP models produce little variation in service effectiveness, minimize service costs by maximizing scale of operation while using a delivery system that allows staff and facilities resources to be increased or decreased quickly to match number of consumers seeking services.

Ethical objections against including life-extension costs in cost-effectiveness analysis: a consistent approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gandjour, Afschin; Müller, Dirk

2014-10-01

One of the major ethical concerns regarding cost-effectiveness analysis in health care has been the inclusion of life-extension costs ("it is cheaper to let people die"). For this reason, many analysts have opted to rule out life-extension costs from the analysis. However, surprisingly little has been written in the health economics literature regarding this ethical concern and the resulting practice. The purpose of this work was to present a framework and potential solution for ethical objections against life-extension costs. This work found three levels of ethical concern: (i) with respect to all life-extension costs (disease-related and -unrelated); (ii) with respect to disease-unrelated costs only; and (iii) regarding disease-unrelated costs plus disease-related costs not influenced by the intervention. Excluding all life-extension costs for ethical reasons would require-for reasons of consistency-a simultaneous exclusion of savings from reducing morbidity. At the other extreme, excluding only disease-unrelated life-extension costs for ethical reasons would require-again for reasons of consistency-the exclusion of health gains due to treatment of unrelated diseases. Therefore, addressing ethical concerns regarding the inclusion of life-extension costs necessitates fundamental changes in the calculation of cost effectiveness.

Reliability planning in distributed electric energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)