Reliability assessment for safety critical systems by statistical random testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mills, S E [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). Statistical Consulting Centre

1995-11-01

In this report we present an overview of reliability assessment for software and focus on some basic aspects of assessing reliability for safety critical systems by statistical random testing. We also discuss possible deviations from some essential assumptions on which the general methodology is based. These deviations appear quite likely in practical applications. We present and discuss possible remedies and adjustments and then undertake applying this methodology to a portion of the SDS1 software. We also indicate shortcomings of the methodology and possible avenues to address to follow to address these problems. (author). 128 refs., 11 tabs., 31 figs.

SIMON. A computer program for reliability and statistical analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. Program description and manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kongsoe, H.E.; Lauridsen, K.

1993-09-01

SIMON is a program for calculation of reliability and statistical analysis. The program is of the Monte Carlo type, and it is designed with high flexibility, and has a large potential for application to complex problems like reliability analyses of very large systems and of systems, where complex modelling or knowledge of special details are required. Examples of application of the program, including input and output, for reliability and statistical analysis are presented. (au) (3 tabs., 3 ills., 5 refs.)

Isocount scintillation scanner with preset statistical data reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ikebe, J.; Yamaguchi, H.; Nawa, O.A.

1975-01-01

A scintillation detector scans an object such as a live body along horizontal straight scanning lines in such a manner that the scintillation detector is stopped at a scanning point during the time interval T required for counting a predetermined number of N pulses. The rate R/sub N/ = N/T is then calculated and the output signal pulses the number of which represents the rate R or the corresponding output signal is used as the recording signal for forming the scintigram. In contrast to the usual scanner, the isocount scanner scans an object stepwise in order to gather data with statistically uniform reliability

Statistical reliability assessment of UT round-robin test data for piping welds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.M.; Park, I.K.; Park, U.S.; Park, Y.W.; Kang, S.C.; Lee, J.H.

2004-01-01

Ultrasonic NDE is one of important technologies in the life-time maintenance of nuclear power plant. Ultrasonic inspection system is consisted of the operator, equipment and procedure. The reliability of ultrasonic inspection system is affected by its ability. The performance demonstration round robin was conducted to quantify the capability of ultrasonic inspection for in-service. Several teams employed procedures that met or exceeded with ASME sec. XI code requirements detected the piping of nuclear power plant with various cracks to evaluate the capability of detection and sizing. In this paper, the statistical reliability assessment of ultrasonic nondestructive inspection data using probability of detection (POD) is presented. The result of POD using logistic model was useful to the reliability assessment for the NDE hit or miss data. (orig.)

ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z.-G. Zhou

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

A Systematic Review of Statistical Methods Used to Test for Reliability of Medical Instruments Measuring Continuous Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafdzah Zaki

2013-06-01

Full Text Available   Objective(s: Reliability measures precision or the extent to which test results can be replicated. This is the first ever systematic review to identify statistical methods used to measure reliability of equipment measuring continuous variables. This studyalso aims to highlight the inappropriate statistical method used in the reliability analysis and its implication in the medical practice.   Materials and Methods: In 2010, five electronic databases were searched between 2007 and 2009 to look for reliability studies. A total of 5,795 titles were initially identified. Only 282 titles were potentially related, and finally 42 fitted the inclusion criteria. Results: The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC is the most popular method with 25 (60% studies having used this method followed by the comparing means (8 or 19%. Out of 25 studies using the ICC, only 7 (28% reported the confidence intervals and types of ICC used. Most studies (71% also tested the agreement of instruments. Conclusion: This study finds that the Intra-class Correlation Coefficient is the most popular method used to assess the reliability of medical instruments measuring continuous outcomes. There are also inappropriate applications and interpretations of statistical methods in some studies. It is important for medical researchers to be aware of this issue, and be able to correctly perform analysis in reliability studies.

A review of the progress with statistical models of passive component reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lydell, Bengt O. Y. [Sigma-Phase Inc., Vail (United States)

2017-03-15

During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records) and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models.

A Review of the Progress with Statistical Models of Passive Component Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bengt O.Y. Lydell

2017-03-01

Full Text Available During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models.

A review of the progress with statistical models of passive component reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydell, Bengt O. Y.

2017-01-01

During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records) and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models

Statistical Primer for Athletic Trainers: The Essentials of Understanding Measures of Reliability and Minimal Important Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Riemann, Bryan L; Lininger, Monica R

2018-01-01

  To describe the concepts of measurement reliability and minimal important change.   All measurements have some magnitude of error. Because clinical practice involves measurement, clinicians need to understand measurement reliability. The reliability of an instrument is integral in determining if a change in patient status is meaningful.   Measurement reliability is the extent to which a test result is consistent and free of error. Three perspectives of reliability-relative reliability, systematic bias, and absolute reliability-are often reported. However, absolute reliability statistics, such as the minimal detectable difference, are most relevant to clinicians because they provide an expected error estimate. The minimal important difference is the smallest change in a treatment outcome that the patient would identify as important.   Clinicians should use absolute reliability characteristics, preferably the minimal detectable difference, to determine the extent of error around a patient's measurement. The minimal detectable difference, coupled with an appropriately estimated minimal important difference, can assist the practitioner in identifying clinically meaningful changes in patients.

Reliability and statistical power analysis of cortical and subcortical FreeSurfer metrics in a large sample of healthy elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

Liem, Franziskus; Mérillat, Susan; Bezzola, Ladina; Hirsiger, Sarah; Philipp, Michel; Madhyastha, Tara; Jäncke, Lutz

2015-03-01

FreeSurfer is a tool to quantify cortical and subcortical brain anatomy automatically and noninvasively. Previous studies have reported reliability and statistical power analyses in relatively small samples or only selected one aspect of brain anatomy. Here, we investigated reliability and statistical power of cortical thickness, surface area, volume, and the volume of subcortical structures in a large sample (N=189) of healthy elderly subjects (64+ years). Reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient) of cortical and subcortical parameters is generally high (cortical: ICCs>0.87, subcortical: ICCs>0.95). Surface-based smoothing increases reliability of cortical thickness maps, while it decreases reliability of cortical surface area and volume. Nevertheless, statistical power of all measures benefits from smoothing. When aiming to detect a 10% difference between groups, the number of subjects required to test effects with sufficient power over the entire cortex varies between cortical measures (cortical thickness: N=39, surface area: N=21, volume: N=81; 10mm smoothing, power=0.8, α=0.05). For subcortical regions this number is between 16 and 76 subjects, depending on the region. We also demonstrate the advantage of within-subject designs over between-subject designs. Furthermore, we publicly provide a tool that allows researchers to perform a priori power analysis and sensitivity analysis to help evaluate previously published studies and to design future studies with sufficient statistical power. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond reliability, multi-state failure analysis of satellite subsystems: A statistical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

2010-01-01

Reliability is widely recognized as a critical design attribute for space systems. In recent articles, we conducted nonparametric analyses and Weibull fits of satellite and satellite subsystems reliability for 1584 Earth-orbiting satellites launched between January 1990 and October 2008. In this paper, we extend our investigation of failures of satellites and satellite subsystems beyond the binary concept of reliability to the analysis of their anomalies and multi-state failures. In reliability analysis, the system or subsystem under study is considered to be either in an operational or failed state; multi-state failure analysis introduces 'degraded states' or partial failures, and thus provides more insights through finer resolution into the degradation behavior of an item and its progression towards complete failure. The database used for the statistical analysis in the present work identifies five states for each satellite subsystem: three degraded states, one fully operational state, and one failed state (complete failure). Because our dataset is right-censored, we calculate the nonparametric probability of transitioning between states for each satellite subsystem with the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and we derive confidence intervals for each probability of transitioning between states. We then conduct parametric Weibull fits of these probabilities using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach. After validating the results, we compare the reliability versus multi-state failure analyses of three satellite subsystems: the thruster/fuel; the telemetry, tracking, and control (TTC); and the gyro/sensor/reaction wheel subsystems. The results are particularly revealing of the insights that can be gleaned from multi-state failure analysis and the deficiencies, or blind spots, of the traditional reliability analysis. In addition to the specific results provided here, which should prove particularly useful to the space industry, this work highlights the importance

Statistical equivalence and test-retest reliability of delay and probability discounting using real and hypothetical rewards.

Science.gov (United States)

Matusiewicz, Alexis K; Carter, Anne E; Landes, Reid D; Yi, Richard

2013-11-01

Delay discounting (DD) and probability discounting (PD) refer to the reduction in the subjective value of outcomes as a function of delay and uncertainty, respectively. Elevated measures of discounting are associated with a variety of maladaptive behaviors, and confidence in the validity of these measures is imperative. The present research examined (1) the statistical equivalence of discounting measures when rewards were hypothetical or real, and (2) their 1-week reliability. While previous research has partially explored these issues using the low threshold of nonsignificant difference, the present study fully addressed this issue using the more-compelling threshold of statistical equivalence. DD and PD measures were collected from 28 healthy adults using real and hypothetical $50 rewards during each of two experimental sessions, one week apart. Analyses using area-under-the-curve measures revealed a general pattern of statistical equivalence, indicating equivalence of real/hypothetical conditions as well as 1-week reliability. Exceptions are identified and discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selection and reporting of statistical methods to assess reliability of a diagnostic test: Conformity to recommended methods in a peer-reviewed journal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Ji Eun; Sung, Yu Sub; Han, Kyung Hwa

2017-01-01

To evaluate the frequency and adequacy of statistical analyses in a general radiology journal when reporting a reliability analysis for a diagnostic test. Sixty-three studies of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) and 36 studies reporting reliability analyses published in the Korean Journal of Radiology between 2012 and 2016 were analyzed. Studies were judged using the methodological guidelines of the Radiological Society of North America-Quantitative Imaging Biomarkers Alliance (RSNA-QIBA), and COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) initiative. DTA studies were evaluated by nine editorial board members of the journal. Reliability studies were evaluated by study reviewers experienced with reliability analysis. Thirty-one (49.2%) of the 63 DTA studies did not include a reliability analysis when deemed necessary. Among the 36 reliability studies, proper statistical methods were used in all (5/5) studies dealing with dichotomous/nominal data, 46.7% (7/15) of studies dealing with ordinal data, and 95.2% (20/21) of studies dealing with continuous data. Statistical methods were described in sufficient detail regarding weighted kappa in 28.6% (2/7) of studies and regarding the model and assumptions of intraclass correlation coefficient in 35.3% (6/17) and 29.4% (5/17) of studies, respectively. Reliability parameters were used as if they were agreement parameters in 23.1% (3/13) of studies. Reproducibility and repeatability were used incorrectly in 20% (3/15) of studies. Greater attention to the importance of reporting reliability, thorough description of the related statistical methods, efforts not to neglect agreement parameters, and better use of relevant terminology is necessary

Selection and reporting of statistical methods to assess reliability of a diagnostic test: Conformity to recommended methods in a peer-reviewed journal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Ji Eun; Sung, Yu Sub [Dept. of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Han, Kyung Hwa [Dept. of Radiology, Research Institute of Radiological Science, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); and others

2017-11-15

To evaluate the frequency and adequacy of statistical analyses in a general radiology journal when reporting a reliability analysis for a diagnostic test. Sixty-three studies of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) and 36 studies reporting reliability analyses published in the Korean Journal of Radiology between 2012 and 2016 were analyzed. Studies were judged using the methodological guidelines of the Radiological Society of North America-Quantitative Imaging Biomarkers Alliance (RSNA-QIBA), and COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) initiative. DTA studies were evaluated by nine editorial board members of the journal. Reliability studies were evaluated by study reviewers experienced with reliability analysis. Thirty-one (49.2%) of the 63 DTA studies did not include a reliability analysis when deemed necessary. Among the 36 reliability studies, proper statistical methods were used in all (5/5) studies dealing with dichotomous/nominal data, 46.7% (7/15) of studies dealing with ordinal data, and 95.2% (20/21) of studies dealing with continuous data. Statistical methods were described in sufficient detail regarding weighted kappa in 28.6% (2/7) of studies and regarding the model and assumptions of intraclass correlation coefficient in 35.3% (6/17) and 29.4% (5/17) of studies, respectively. Reliability parameters were used as if they were agreement parameters in 23.1% (3/13) of studies. Reproducibility and repeatability were used incorrectly in 20% (3/15) of studies. Greater attention to the importance of reporting reliability, thorough description of the related statistical methods, efforts not to neglect agreement parameters, and better use of relevant terminology is necessary.

Towards consistent and reliable Dutch and international energy statistics for the chemical industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neelis, M.L.; Pouwelse, J.W.

2008-01-01

Consistent and reliable energy statistics are of vital importance for proper monitoring of energy-efficiency policies. In recent studies, irregularities have been reported in the Dutch energy statistics for the chemical industry. We studied in depth the company data that form the basis of the energy statistics in the Netherlands between 1995 and 2004 to find causes for these irregularities. We discovered that chemical products have occasionally been included, resulting in statistics with an inconsistent system boundary. Lack of guidance in the survey for the complex energy conversions in the chemical industry in the survey also resulted in large fluctuations for certain energy commodities. The findings of our analysis have been the basis for a new survey that has been used since 2007. We demonstrate that the annual questionnaire used for the international energy statistics can result in comparable problems as observed in the Netherlands. We suggest to include chemical residual gas as energy commodity in the questionnaire and to include the energy conversions in the chemical industry in the international energy statistics. In addition, we think the questionnaire should be explicit about the treatment of basic chemical products produced at refineries and in the petrochemical industry to avoid system boundary problems

Dependent systems reliability estimation by structural reliability approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Estimation of system reliability by classical system reliability methods generally assumes that the components are statistically independent, thus limiting its applicability in many practical situations. A method is proposed for estimation of the system reliability with dependent components, where...... the leading failure mechanism(s) is described by physics of failure model(s). The proposed method is based on structural reliability techniques and accounts for both statistical and failure effect correlations. It is assumed that failure of any component is due to increasing damage (fatigue phenomena...... identification. Application of the proposed method can be found in many real world systems....

Reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

1993-08-01

This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

Computing interval-valued statistical characteristics: What is the stumbling block for reliability applications?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, V.G.

2009-01-01

The application of interval-valued statistical models is often hindered by the rapid growth in imprecision that occurs when intervals are propagated through models. Is this deficiency inherent in the models? If so, what is the underlying cause of imprecision in mathematical terms? What kind...... of additional information can be incorporated to make the bounds tighter? The present paper gives an account of the source of this imprecision that prevents interval-valued statistical models from being widely applied. Firstly, the mathematical approach to building interval-valued models (discrete...... and continuous) is delineated. Secondly, a degree of imprecision is demonstrated on some simple reliability models. Thirdly, the root mathematical cause of sizeable imprecision is elucidated and, finally, a method of making the intervals tighter is described. A number of examples are given throughout the paper....

Impact of Rating Scale Categories on Reliability and Fit Statistics of the Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale using Rasch Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Daher, Aqil Mohammad; Ahmad, Syed Hassan; Winn, Than; Selamat, Mohd Ikhsan

2015-01-01

Few studies have employed the item response theory in examining reliability. We conducted this study to examine the effect of Rating Scale Categories (RSCs) on the reliability and fit statistics of the Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale, employing the Rasch model. The Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale (SWBS) with the original six; three and four newly structured RSCs was distributed randomly among three different samples of 50 participants each. The mean age of respondents in the three samples ranged between 36 and 39 years old. The majority was female in all samples, and Islam was the most prevalent religion among the respondents. The predominating race was Malay, followed by Chinese and Indian. The original six RSCs indicated better targeting of 0.99 and smallest model error of 0.24. The Infit Mnsq (mean square) and Zstd (Z standard) of the six RSCs were "1.1"and "-0.1"respectively. The six RSCs achieved the highest person and item reliabilities of 0.86 and 0.85 respectively. These reliabilities yielded the highest person (2.46) and item (2.38) separation indices compared to other the RSCs. The person and item reliability and, to a lesser extent, the fit statistics, were better with the six RSCs compared to the four and three RSCs.

Reliability and applications of statistical methods based on oligonucleotide frequencies in bacterial and archaeal genomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bohlin, J; Skjerve, E; Ussery, David

2008-01-01

with here are mainly used to examine similarities between archaeal and bacterial DNA from different genomes. These methods compare observed genomic frequencies of fixed-sized oligonucleotides with expected values, which can be determined by genomic nucleotide content, smaller oligonucleotide frequencies......, or be based on specific statistical distributions. Advantages with these statistical methods include measurements of phylogenetic relationship with relatively small pieces of DNA sampled from almost anywhere within genomes, detection of foreign/conserved DNA, and homology searches. Our aim was to explore...... the reliability and best suited applications for some popular methods, which include relative oligonucleotide frequencies (ROF), di- to hexanucleotide zero'th order Markov methods (ZOM) and 2.order Markov chain Method (MCM). Tests were performed on distant homology searches with large DNA sequences, detection...

A rapid reliability estimation method for directed acyclic lifeline networks with statistically dependent components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Won-Hee; Kliese, Alyce

2014-01-01

Lifeline networks, such as transportation, water supply, sewers, telecommunications, and electrical and gas networks, are essential elements for the economic and societal functions of urban areas, but their components are highly susceptible to natural or man-made hazards. In this context, it is essential to provide effective pre-disaster hazard mitigation strategies and prompt post-disaster risk management efforts based on rapid system reliability assessment. This paper proposes a rapid reliability estimation method for node-pair connectivity analysis of lifeline networks especially when the network components are statistically correlated. Recursive procedures are proposed to compound all network nodes until they become a single super node representing the connectivity between the origin and destination nodes. The proposed method is applied to numerical network examples and benchmark interconnected power and water networks in Memphis, Shelby County. The connectivity analysis results show the proposed method's reasonable accuracy and remarkable efficiency as compared to the Monte Carlo simulations

Software reliability

CERN Document Server

Bendell, A

1986-01-01

Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Multinomial-exponential reliability function: a software reliability model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saiz de Bustamante, Amalio; Saiz de Bustamante, Barbara

2003-01-01

The multinomial-exponential reliability function (MERF) was developed during a detailed study of the software failure/correction processes. Later on MERF was approximated by a much simpler exponential reliability function (EARF), which keeps most of MERF mathematical properties, so the two functions together makes up a single reliability model. The reliability model MERF/EARF considers the software failure process as a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), and the repair (correction) process, a multinomial distribution. The model supposes that both processes are statistically independent. The paper discusses the model's theoretical basis, its mathematical properties and its application to software reliability. Nevertheless it is foreseen model applications to inspection and maintenance of physical systems. The paper includes a complete numerical example of the model application to a software reliability analysis

Statistical modeling for degradation data

CERN Document Server

Lio, Yuhlong; Ng, Hon; Tsai, Tzong-Ru

2017-01-01

This book focuses on the statistical aspects of the analysis of degradation data. In recent years, degradation data analysis has come to play an increasingly important role in different disciplines such as reliability, public health sciences, and finance. For example, information on products’ reliability can be obtained by analyzing degradation data. In addition, statistical modeling and inference techniques have been developed on the basis of different degradation measures. The book brings together experts engaged in statistical modeling and inference, presenting and discussing important recent advances in degradation data analysis and related applications. The topics covered are timely and have considerable potential to impact both statistics and reliability engineering.

Nuclear plant reliability data system. 1979 annual reports of cumulative system and component reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

The primary purposes of the information in these reports are the following: to provide operating statistics of safety-related systems within a unit which may be used to compare and evaluate reliability performance and to provide failure mode and failure rate statistics on components which may be used in failure mode effects analysis, fault hazard analysis, probabilistic reliability analysis, and so forth

Structural systems reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frangopol, D.

1975-01-01

For an exact evaluation of the reliability of a structure it appears necessary to determine the distribution densities of the loads and resistances and to calculate the correlation coefficients between loads and between resistances. These statistical characteristics can be obtained only on the basis of a long activity period. In case that such studies are missing the statistical properties formulated here give upper and lower bounds of the reliability. (orig./HP) [de

Human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, E.M.; Fragola, J.R.

1988-01-01

The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach

Statistical strength properties, loading and reliability of structures made of reaction bonded silicon nitride

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maier, H.R.; Nink, H.; Krauth, A.

1977-01-01

A prediction of the reliability of structural components requires the definition of transfer data from the combination of materials data, design criteria and application conditions. The determination and transfer of strength data are one unit and therefore similar approximations are necessary. The influence of loading conditions, proof testing and analysing methods is explained with bending tests of rectangular specimens and burst tests of big tubes at room temperature. The drop in strength from 180 N/mm 2 to 50 N/mm 2 via a size factor of 10 5 is predicted and experimentally verified with the most simple statistical extension. The results have been applied to special problems of stress concentrations and give conclusions for test techniques and design fundamentals. (orig.) [de

Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veneziano, D.

1975-01-01

What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

Electronics reliability calculation and design

CERN Document Server

Dummer, Geoffrey W A; Hiller, N

1966-01-01

Electronics Reliability-Calculation and Design provides an introduction to the fundamental concepts of reliability. The increasing complexity of electronic equipment has made problems in designing and manufacturing a reliable product more and more difficult. Specific techniques have been developed that enable designers to integrate reliability into their products, and reliability has become a science in its own right. The book begins with a discussion of basic mathematical and statistical concepts, including arithmetic mean, frequency distribution, median and mode, scatter or dispersion of mea

A Reliability Test of a Complex System Based on Empirical Likelihood

OpenAIRE

Zhou, Yan; Fu, Liya; Zhang, Jun; Hui, Yongchang

2016-01-01

To analyze the reliability of a complex system described by minimal paths, an empirical likelihood method is proposed to solve the reliability test problem when the subsystem distributions are unknown. Furthermore, we provide a reliability test statistic of the complex system and extract the limit distribution of the test statistic. Therefore, we can obtain the confidence interval for reliability and make statistical inferences. The simulation studies also demonstrate the theorem results.

Energy statistics manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

Detailed, complete, timely and reliable statistics are essential to monitor the energy situation at a country level as well as at an international level. Energy statistics on supply, trade, stocks, transformation and demand are indeed the basis for any sound energy policy decision. For instance, the market of oil -- which is the largest traded commodity worldwide -- needs to be closely monitored in order for all market players to know at any time what is produced, traded, stocked and consumed and by whom. In view of the role and importance of energy in world development, one would expect that basic energy information to be readily available and reliable. This is not always the case and one can even observe a decline in the quality, coverage and timeliness of energy statistics over the last few years.

The Reliability of Single Subject Statistics for Biofeedback Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Bremner, Frederick J.; And Others

To test the usefulness of single subject statistical designs for biofeedback, three experiments were conducted comparing biofeedback to meditation, and to a compound stimulus recognition task. In a statistical sense, this experimental design is best described as one experiment with two replications. The apparatus for each of the three experiments…

A standard for test reliability in group research.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Jules L

2013-03-01

Many authors adhere to the rule that test reliabilities should be at least .70 or .80 in group research. This article introduces a new standard according to which reliabilities can be evaluated. This standard is based on the costs or time of the experiment and of administering the test. For example, if test administration costs are 7 % of the total experimental costs, the efficient value of the reliability is .93. If the actual reliability of a test is equal to this efficient reliability, the test size maximizes the statistical power of the experiment, given the costs. As a standard in experimental research, it is proposed that the reliability of the dependent variable be close to the efficient reliability. Adhering to this standard will enhance the statistical power and reduce the costs of experiments.

Statistics for Engineers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jin Gyeong; Park, Jin Ho; Park, Hyeon Jin; Lee, Jae Jun; Jun, Whong Seok; Whang, Jin Su

2009-08-01

This book explains statistics for engineers using MATLAB, which includes arrangement and summary of data, probability, probability distribution, sampling distribution, assumption, check, variance analysis, regression analysis, categorical data analysis, quality assurance such as conception of control chart, consecutive control chart, breakthrough strategy and analysis using Matlab, reliability analysis like measurement of reliability and analysis with Maltab, and Markov chain.

Statistical Bayesian method for reliability evaluation based on ADT data

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Dawei; Wang, Lizhi; Sun, Yusheng; Wang, Xiaohong

2018-05-01

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is frequently conducted in the laboratory to predict the products’ reliability under normal operating conditions. Two kinds of methods, degradation path models and stochastic process models, are utilized to analyze degradation data and the latter one is the most popular method. However, some limitations like imprecise solution process and estimation result of degradation ratio still exist, which may affect the accuracy of the acceleration model and the extrapolation value. Moreover, the conducted solution of this problem, Bayesian method, lose key information when unifying the degradation data. In this paper, a new data processing and parameter inference method based on Bayesian method is proposed to handle degradation data and solve the problems above. First, Wiener process and acceleration model is chosen; Second, the initial values of degradation model and parameters of prior and posterior distribution under each level is calculated with updating and iteration of estimation values; Third, the lifetime and reliability values are estimated on the basis of the estimation parameters; Finally, a case study is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the proposed method is quite effective and accuracy in estimating the lifetime and reliability of a product.

Application of a truncated normal failure distribution in reliability testing

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, C., Jr.

1968-01-01

Statistical truncated normal distribution function is applied as a time-to-failure distribution function in equipment reliability estimations. Age-dependent characteristics of the truncated function provide a basis for formulating a system of high-reliability testing that effectively merges statistical, engineering, and cost considerations.

Reliability of reference distances used in photogrammetry.

Science.gov (United States)

Aksu, Muge; Kaya, Demet; Kocadereli, Ilken

2010-07-01

To determine the reliability of the reference distances used for photogrammetric assessment. The sample consisted of 100 subjects with mean ages of 22.97 +/- 2.98 years. Five lateral and four frontal parameters were measured directly on the subjects' faces. For photogrammetric assessment, two reference distances for the profile view and three reference distances for the frontal view were established. Standardized photographs were taken and all the parameters that had been measured directly on the face were measured on the photographs. The reliability of the reference distances was checked by comparing direct and indirect values of the parameters obtained from the subjects' faces and photographs. Repeated measure analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Bland-Altman analyses were used for statistical assessment. For profile measurements, the indirect values measured were statistically different from the direct values except for Sn-Sto in male subjects and Prn-Sn and Sn-Sto in female subjects. The indirect values of Prn-Sn and Sn-Sto were reliable in both sexes. The poorest results were obtained in the indirect values of the N-Sn parameter for female subjects and the Sn-Me parameter for male subjects according to the Sa-Sba reference distance. For frontal measurements, the indirect values were statistically different from the direct values in both sexes except for one in male subjects. The indirect values measured were not statistically different from the direct values for Go-Go. The indirect values of Ch-Ch were reliable in male subjects. The poorest results were obtained according to the P-P reference distance. For profile assessment, the T-Ex reference distance was reliable for Prn-Sn and Sn-Sto in both sexes. For frontal assessment, Ex-Ex and En-En reference distances were reliable for Ch-Ch in male subjects.

Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Reliability-based optimization of engineering structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2008-01-01

The theoretical basis for reliability-based structural optimization within the framework of Bayesian statistical decision theory is briefly described. Reliability-based cost benefit problems are formulated and exemplitied with structural optimization. The basic reliability-based optimization...... problems are generalized to the following extensions: interactive optimization, inspection and repair costs, systematic reconstruction, re-assessment of existing structures. Illustrative examples are presented including a simple introductory example, a decision problem related to bridge re...

New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

2016-01-01

of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

Improved radiograph measurement inter-observer reliability by use of statistical shape models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pegg, E.C., E-mail: elise.pegg@ndorms.ox.ac.uk [University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD (United Kingdom); Mellon, S.J., E-mail: stephen.mellon@ndorms.ox.ac.uk [University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD (United Kingdom); Salmon, G. [University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD (United Kingdom); Alvand, A., E-mail: abtin.alvand@ndorms.ox.ac.uk [University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD (United Kingdom); Pandit, H., E-mail: hemant.pandit@ndorms.ox.ac.uk [University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD (United Kingdom); Murray, D.W., E-mail: david.murray@ndorms.ox.ac.uk [University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD (United Kingdom); Gill, H.S., E-mail: richie.gill@ndorms.ox.ac.uk [University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD (United Kingdom)

2012-10-15

Pre- and post-operative radiographs of patients undergoing joint arthroplasty are often examined for a variety of purposes including preoperative planning and patient assessment. This work examines the feasibility of using active shape models (ASM) to semi-automate measurements from post-operative radiographs for the specific case of the Oxford™ Unicompartmental Knee. Measurements of the proximal tibia and the position of the tibial tray were made using the ASM model and manually. Data were obtained by four observers and one observer took four sets of measurements to allow assessment of the inter- and intra-observer reliability, respectively. The parameters measured were the tibial tray angle, the tray overhang, the tray size, the sagittal cut position, the resection level and the tibial width. Results demonstrated improved reliability (average of 27% and 11.2% increase for intra- and inter-reliability, respectively) and equivalent accuracy (p > 0.05 for compared data values) for all of the measurements using the ASM model, with the exception of the tray overhang (p = 0.0001). Less time (15 s) was required to take measurements using the ASM model compared with manual measurements, which was significant. These encouraging results indicate that semi-automated measurement techniques could improve the reliability of radiographic measurements.

Improved radiograph measurement inter-observer reliability by use of statistical shape models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pegg, E.C.; Mellon, S.J.; Salmon, G.; Alvand, A.; Pandit, H.; Murray, D.W.; Gill, H.S.

2012-01-01

Pre- and post-operative radiographs of patients undergoing joint arthroplasty are often examined for a variety of purposes including preoperative planning and patient assessment. This work examines the feasibility of using active shape models (ASM) to semi-automate measurements from post-operative radiographs for the specific case of the Oxford™ Unicompartmental Knee. Measurements of the proximal tibia and the position of the tibial tray were made using the ASM model and manually. Data were obtained by four observers and one observer took four sets of measurements to allow assessment of the inter- and intra-observer reliability, respectively. The parameters measured were the tibial tray angle, the tray overhang, the tray size, the sagittal cut position, the resection level and the tibial width. Results demonstrated improved reliability (average of 27% and 11.2% increase for intra- and inter-reliability, respectively) and equivalent accuracy (p > 0.05 for compared data values) for all of the measurements using the ASM model, with the exception of the tray overhang (p = 0.0001). Less time (15 s) was required to take measurements using the ASM model compared with manual measurements, which was significant. These encouraging results indicate that semi-automated measurement techniques could improve the reliability of radiographic measurements

Electric propulsion reliability: Statistical analysis of on-orbit anomalies and comparative analysis of electric versus chemical propulsion failure rates

Science.gov (United States)

Saleh, Joseph Homer; Geng, Fan; Ku, Michelle; Walker, Mitchell L. R.

2017-10-01

With a few hundred spacecraft launched to date with electric propulsion (EP), it is possible to conduct an epidemiological study of EP's on orbit reliability. The first objective of the present work was to undertake such a study and analyze EP's track record of on orbit anomalies and failures by different covariates. The second objective was to provide a comparative analysis of EP's failure rates with those of chemical propulsion. Satellite operators, manufacturers, and insurers will make reliability- and risk-informed decisions regarding the adoption and promotion of EP on board spacecraft. This work provides evidence-based support for such decisions. After a thorough data collection, 162 EP-equipped satellites launched between January 1997 and December 2015 were included in our dataset for analysis. Several statistical analyses were conducted, at the aggregate level and then with the data stratified by severity of the anomaly, by orbit type, and by EP technology. Mean Time To Anomaly (MTTA) and the distribution of the time to (minor/major) anomaly were investigated, as well as anomaly rates. The important findings in this work include the following: (1) Post-2005, EP's reliability has outperformed that of chemical propulsion; (2) Hall thrusters have robustly outperformed chemical propulsion, and they maintain a small but shrinking reliability advantage over gridded ion engines. Other results were also provided, for example the differentials in MTTA of minor and major anomalies for gridded ion engines and Hall thrusters. It was shown that: (3) Hall thrusters exhibit minor anomalies very early on orbit, which might be indicative of infant anomalies, and thus would benefit from better ground testing and acceptance procedures; (4) Strong evidence exists that EP anomalies (onset and likelihood) and orbit type are dependent, a dependence likely mediated by either the space environment or differences in thrusters duty cycles; (5) Gridded ion thrusters exhibit both

Energy Statistics Manual [Arabic version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

Detailed, complete, timely and reliable statistics are essential to monitor the energy situation at a country level as well as at an international level. Energy statistics on supply, trade, stocks, transformation and demand are indeed the basis for any sound energy policy decision. For instance, the market of oil -- which is the largest traded commodity worldwide -- needs to be closely monitored in order for all market players to know at any time what is produced, traded, stocked and consumed and by whom. In view of the role and importance of energy in world development, one would expect that basic energy information to be readily available and reliable. This is not always the case and one can even observe a decline in the quality, coverage and timeliness of energy statistics over the last few years.

Energy Statistics Manual; Handbuch Energiestatistik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Detailed, complete, timely and reliable statistics are essential to monitor the energy situation at a country level as well as at an international level. Energy statistics on supply, trade, stocks, transformation and demand are indeed the basis for any sound energy policy decision. For instance, the market of oil -- which is the largest traded commodity worldwide -- needs to be closely monitored in order for all market players to know at any time what is produced, traded, stocked and consumed and by whom. In view of the role and importance of energy in world development, one would expect that basic energy information to be readily available and reliable. This is not always the case and one can even observe a decline in the quality, coverage and timeliness of energy statistics over the last few years.

Frontiers in statistical quality control

CERN Document Server

Wilrich, Peter-Theodor

2004-01-01

This volume treats the four main categories of Statistical Quality Control: General SQC Methodology, On-line Control including Sampling Inspection and Statistical Process Control, Off-line Control with Data Analysis and Experimental Design, and, fields related to Reliability. Experts with international reputation present their newest contributions.

Reliability Verification of DBE Environment Simulation Test Facility by using Statistics Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Kyung Nam; Kim, Jong Soeg; Jeong, Sun Chul; Kyung Heum

2011-01-01

In the nuclear power plant, all the safety-related equipment including cables under the harsh environment should perform the equipment qualification (EQ) according to the IEEE std 323. There are three types of qualification methods including type testing, operating experience and analysis. In order to environmentally qualify the safety-related equipment using type testing method, not analysis or operation experience method, the representative sample of equipment, including interfaces, should be subjected to a series of tests. Among these tests, Design Basis Events (DBE) environment simulating test is the most important test. DBE simulation test is performed in DBE simulation test chamber according to the postulated DBE conditions including specified high-energy line break (HELB), loss of coolant accident (LOCA), main steam line break (MSLB) and etc, after thermal and radiation aging. Because most DBE conditions have 100% humidity condition, in order to trace temperature and pressure of DBE condition, high temperature steam should be used. During DBE simulation test, if high temperature steam under high pressure inject to the DBE test chamber, the temperature and pressure in test chamber rapidly increase over the target temperature. Therefore, the temperature and pressure in test chamber continue fluctuating during the DBE simulation test to meet target temperature and pressure. We should ensure fairness and accuracy of test result by confirming the performance of DBE environment simulation test facility. In this paper, in order to verify reliability of DBE environment simulation test facility, statistics method is used

Statistical uncertainties and unrecognized relationships

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rankin, J.P.

1985-01-01

Hidden relationships in specific designs directly contribute to inaccuracies in reliability assessments. Uncertainty factors at the system level may sometimes be applied in attempts to compensate for the impact of such unrecognized relationships. Often uncertainty bands are used to relegate unknowns to a miscellaneous category of low-probability occurrences. However, experience and modern analytical methods indicate that perhaps the dominant, most probable and significant events are sometimes overlooked in statistical reliability assurances. The author discusses the utility of two unique methods of identifying the otherwise often unforeseeable system interdependencies for statistical evaluations. These methods are sneak circuit analysis and a checklist form of common cause failure analysis. Unless these techniques (or a suitable equivalent) are also employed along with the more widely-known assurance tools, high reliability of complex systems may not be adequately assured. This concern is indicated by specific illustrations. 8 references, 5 figures

Parametric statistical techniques for the comparative analysis of censored reliability data: a review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohoris, George A.

1995-01-01

This paper summarizes part of the work carried out to date on seeking analytical solutions to the two-sample problem with censored data in the context of reliability and maintenance optimization applications. For this purpose, parametric two-sample tests for failure and censored reliability data are introduced and their applicability/effectiveness in common engineering problems is reviewed

Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fariborz M. Tehrani

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimate, including modeling errors and inherent variability. Sample projects are highway maintenance projects with a similar scope of the work, size, and schedule. Statistical analysis of engineering estimates and bids examines the adaptability of statistical models for sample projects. Further, the variation of engineering cost estimates from inception to implementation has been presented and discussed for selected projects. Moreover, the applicability of extreme values theory is assessed for available data. The results indicate that the performance of engineer’s estimate is best evaluated based on trimmed average of bids, excluding discordant bids.

Sensitivity Weaknesses in Application of some Statistical Distribution in First Order Reliability Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Enevoldsen, I.

1993-01-01

It has been observed and shown that in some examples a sensitivity analysis of the first order reliability index results in increasing reliability index, when the standard deviation for a stochastic variable is increased while the expected value is fixed. This unfortunate behaviour can occur when...... a stochastic variable is modelled by an asymmetrical density function. For lognormally, Gumbel and Weibull distributed stochastic variables it is shown for which combinations of the/3-point, the expected value and standard deviation the weakness can occur. In relation to practical application the behaviour...... is probably rather infrequent. A simple example is shown as illustration and to exemplify that for second order reliability methods and for exact calculations of the probability of failure this behaviour is much more infrequent....

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

Reliability Considerations for the Operation of Large Accelerator User Facilities

CERN Document Server

Willeke, F.J.

2016-01-01

The lecture provides an overview of considerations relevant for achieving highly reliable operation of accelerator based user facilities. The article starts with an overview of statistical reliability formalism which is followed by high reliability design considerations with examples. The article closes with operational aspects of high reliability such as preventive maintenance and spares inventory.

Rationale for statistical characteristics of road safety parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dormidontova Tatiana

2017-01-01

Full Text Available When making engineering decisions at the stage of designing auto-roads and man-made structures it is necessary to take into account the statistical variability of physical and mechanical characteristics of the used materials as well as the different effects on the structures. Thus the rationale for the statistical characteristics of the parameters that determine the reliability of roads and man-made engineering facilities is of particular importance.There are many factors to be considered while designing roads, such as natural climatic factors, the accidental effects of the operating loads, the strength and deformation characteristics of the materials, the geometric parameters of the structure, etc. which affect the strength characteristics of roads and man-made structures. The rationale for statistical characteristics of the parameters can help an engineer assess the reliability of the decision and the economic risk, as well as avoid making mistakes in the design of roads and man-made structures.However, some statistical characteristics of the parameters that define the reliability of a road and man-made structures play a key role in the design. These are the visibility distance in daytime for the peak curve, variation coefficient of radial acceleration, the reliability of visibility distance and other parameters.

Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

2002-01-01

We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

Application of statistics to VLSI circuit manufacturing : test, diagnosis, and reliability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krishnan, Shaji

2017-01-01

Semiconductor product manufacturing companies strive to deliver defect free, and reliable products to their customers. However, with the down-scaling of technology, increasing the throughput at every stage of semiconductor product manufacturing becomes a harder challenge. To avoid process-related

Energy Statistics Manual; Manual Statistik Energi

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Detailed, complete, timely and reliable statistics are essential to monitor the energy situation at a country level as well as at an international level. Energy statistics on supply, trade, stocks, transformation and demand are indeed the basis for any sound energy policy decision. For instance, the market of oil -- which is the largest traded commodity worldwide -- needs to be closely monitored in order for all market players to know at any time what is produced, traded, stocked and consumed and by whom. In view of the role and importance of energy in world development, one would expect that basic energy information to be readily available and reliable. This is not always the case and one can even observe a decline in the quality, coverage and timeliness of energy statistics over the last few years.

Urban travel time reliability at different traffic conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zheng, Fangfang; Li, Jie; van Zuylen, H.J.; Liu, Xiaobo; Yang, Hongtai

2017-01-01

The decision making of travelers for route choice and departure time choice depends on the expected travel time and its reliability. A common understanding of reliability is that it is related to several statistical properties of the travel time distribution, especially to the standard deviation

State of the art report on aging reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Han, Sang Hoon; Ha, Jae Joo

2002-03-01

The goal of this report is to describe the state of the art on aging analysis methods to calculate the effects of component aging quantitatively. In this report, we described some aging analysis methods which calculate the increase of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) due to aging by including the influence of aging into PSA. We also described several research topics required for aging analysis for components of domestic NPPs. We have described a statistical model and reliability physics model which calculate the effect of aging quantitatively by using PSA method. It is expected that the practical use of the reliability-physics model will be increased though the process with the reliability-physics model is more complicated than statistical model

Integration of NDE Reliability and Fracture Mechanics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, F. L.; Doctor, S. R.; Heas!er, P. G.; Morris, C. J.; Pitman, S. G.; Selby, G. P.; Simonen, F. A.

1981-03-01

The Pacific Northwest Laboratory is conducting a four-phase program for measuring and evaluating the effectiveness and reliability of in-service inspection (lSI} performed on the primary system piping welds of commercial light water reactors (LWRs). Phase I of the program is complete. A survey was made of the state of practice for ultrasonic rsr of LWR primary system piping welds. Fracture mechanics calculations were made to establish required nondestrutive testing sensitivities. In general, it was found that fatigue flaws less than 25% of wall thickness would not grow to failure within an inspection interval of 10 years. However, in some cases failure could occur considerably faster. Statistical methods for predicting and measuring the effectiveness and reliability of lSI were developed and will be applied in the "Round Robin Inspections" of Phase II. Methods were also developed for the production of flaws typical of those found in service. Samples fabricated by these methods wilI be used in Phase II to test inspection effectiveness and reliability. Measurements were made of the influence of flaw characteristics {i.e., roughness, tightness, and orientation) on inspection reliability. These measurernents, as well as the predictions of a statistical model for inspection reliability, indicate that current reporting and recording sensitivities are inadequate.

Probability an introduction with statistical applications

CERN Document Server

Kinney, John J

2014-01-01

Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

Computation of the Molenaar Sijtsma Statistic

Science.gov (United States)

Andries van der Ark, L.

The Molenaar Sijtsma statistic is an estimate of the reliability of a test score. In some special cases, computation of the Molenaar Sijtsma statistic requires provisional measures. These provisional measures have not been fully described in the literature, and we show that they have not been implemented in the software. We describe the required provisional measures as to allow the computation of the Molenaar Sijtsma statistic for all data sets.

Nonparametric statistics for social and behavioral sciences

CERN Document Server

Kraska-MIller, M

2013-01-01

Introduction to Research in Social and Behavioral SciencesBasic Principles of ResearchPlanning for ResearchTypes of Research Designs Sampling ProceduresValidity and Reliability of Measurement InstrumentsSteps of the Research Process Introduction to Nonparametric StatisticsData AnalysisOverview of Nonparametric Statistics and Parametric Statistics Overview of Parametric Statistics Overview of Nonparametric StatisticsImportance of Nonparametric MethodsMeasurement InstrumentsAnalysis of Data to Determine Association and Agreement Pearson Chi-Square Test of Association and IndependenceContingency

Computer-aided reliability and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leicht, R.; Wingender, H.J.

1989-01-01

Activities in the fields of reliability and risk analyses have led to the development of particular software tools which now are combined in the PC-based integrated CARARA system. The options available in this system cover a wide range of reliability-oriented tasks, like organizing raw failure data in the component/event data bank FDB, performing statistical analysis of those data with the program FDA, managing the resulting parameters in the reliability data bank RDB, and performing fault tree analysis with the fault tree code FTL or evaluating the risk of toxic or radioactive material release with the STAR code. (orig.)

Statistical Considerations in Choosing a Test Reliability Coefficient. ACT Research Report Series, 2012 (10)

Science.gov (United States)

Woodruff, David; Wu, Yi-Fang

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate alpha's robustness and usefulness, using actual and simulated educational test data. The sampling properties of alpha are compared with the sampling properties of several other reliability coefficients: Guttman's lambda[subscript 2], lambda[subscript 4], and lambda[subscript 6]; test-retest reliability;…

Reliability of electronic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roca, Jose L.

2001-01-01

Reliability techniques have been developed subsequently as a need of the diverse engineering disciplines, nevertheless they are not few those that think they have been work a lot on reliability before the same word was used in the current context. Military, space and nuclear industries were the first ones that have been involved in this topic, however not only in these environments it is that it has been carried out this small great revolution in benefit of the increase of the reliability figures of the products of those industries, but rather it has extended to the whole industry. The fact of the massive production, characteristic of the current industries, drove four decades ago, to the fall of the reliability of its products, on one hand, because the massively itself and, for other, to the recently discovered and even not stabilized industrial techniques. Industry should be changed according to those two new requirements, creating products of medium complexity and assuring an enough reliability appropriated to production costs and controls. Reliability began to be integral part of the manufactured product. Facing this philosophy, the book describes reliability techniques applied to electronics systems and provides a coherent and rigorous framework for these diverse activities providing a unifying scientific basis for the entire subject. It consists of eight chapters plus a lot of statistical tables and an extensive annotated bibliography. Chapters embrace the following topics: 1- Introduction to Reliability; 2- Basic Mathematical Concepts; 3- Catastrophic Failure Models; 4-Parametric Failure Models; 5- Systems Reliability; 6- Reliability in Design and Project; 7- Reliability Tests; 8- Software Reliability. This book is in Spanish language and has a potentially diverse audience as a text book from academic to industrial courses. (author)

Reliability prediction system based on the failure rate model for electronic components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Woo; Lee, Hwa Ki

2008-01-01

Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. Among the reliability prediction methods are the statistical analysis based method, the similarity analysis method based on an external failure rate database, and the method based on the physics-of-failure model. In this study, we developed a system by which the reliability of electronic components can be predicted by creating a system for the statistical analysis method of predicting reliability most easily. The failure rate models that were applied are MILHDBK- 217F N2, PRISM, and Telcordia (Bellcore), and these were compared with the general purpose system in order to validate the effectiveness of the developed system. Being able to predict the reliability of electronic components from the stage of design, the system that we have developed is expected to contribute to enhancing the reliability of electronic components

Supply reliability in context to quality regulation. Forecast model for the supply reliability; Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit im Kontext der Qualitaetsregulierung. Prognosemodell fuer die Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quadflieg, Dieter [VDE, Berlin (Germany). FNN-Projektgruppe ' ' Einflussgroessen auf die Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit' '

2011-11-14

The forum network technology / network operations in VDE (FNN) has published a technical note on supply reliability in the context of quality regulation. In the underlying investigations, on the one hand the influencing variables on the supply reliability are analyzed on the basis of FNN fault and availability statistics. On the other stochastic methods are developed that allow a prediction of the stochastic reliability characteristics of each network operator.

Energy Statistics Manual; Manual de Estadisticas Energeticas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Detailed, complete, timely and reliable statistics are essential to monitor the energy situation at a country level as well as at an international level. Energy statistics on supply, trade, stocks, transformation and demand are indeed the basis for any sound energy policy decision. For instance, the market of oil -- which is the largest traded commodity worldwide -- needs to be closely monitored in order for all market players to know at any time what is produced, traded, stocked and consumed and by whom. In view of the role and importance of energy in world development, one would expect that basic energy information to be readily available and reliable. This is not always the case and one can even observe a decline in the quality, coverage and timeliness of energy statistics over the last few years.

Energy Statistics Manual; Enerji Istatistikleri El Kitabi

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

Detailed, complete, timely and reliable statistics are essential to monitor the energy situation at a country level as well as at an international level. Energy statistics on supply, trade, stocks, transformation and demand are indeed the basis for any sound energy policy decision. For instance, the market of oil -- which is the largest traded commodity worldwide -- needs to be closely monitored in order for all market players to know at any time what is produced, traded, stocked and consumed and by whom. In view of the role and importance of energy in world development, one would expect that basic energy information to be readily available and reliable. This is not always the case and one can even observe a decline in the quality, coverage and timeliness of energy statistics over the last few years.

Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2003-01-01

This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

Introduction to quality and reliability engineering

CERN Document Server

Jiang, Renyan

2015-01-01

This book presents the state-of-the-art in quality and reliability engineering from a product life cycle standpoint. Topics in reliability include reliability models, life data analysis and modeling, design for reliability and accelerated life testing, while topics in quality include design for quality, acceptance sampling and supplier selection, statistical process control, production tests such as screening and burn-in, warranty and maintenance. The book provides comprehensive insights into two closely related subjects, and includes a wealth of examples and problems to enhance reader comprehension and link theory and practice. All numerical examples can be easily solved using Microsoft Excel. The book is intended for senior undergraduate and post-graduate students in related engineering and management programs such as mechanical engineering, manufacturing engineering, industrial engineering and engineering management programs, as well as for researchers and engineers in the quality and reliability fields. D...

Reliability assessments in qualitative health promotion research.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Kay E

2012-03-01

This article contributes to the debate about the use of reliability assessments in qualitative research in general, and health promotion research in particular. In this article, I examine the use of reliability assessments in qualitative health promotion research in response to health promotion researchers' commonly held misconception that reliability assessments improve the rigor of qualitative research. All qualitative articles published in the journal Health Promotion International from 2003 to 2009 employing reliability assessments were examined. In total, 31.3% (20/64) articles employed some form of reliability assessment. The use of reliability assessments increased over the study period, ranging from qualitative articles decreased. The articles were then classified into four types of reliability assessments, including the verification of thematic codes, the use of inter-rater reliability statistics, congruence in team coding and congruence in coding across sites. The merits of each type were discussed, with the subsequent discussion focusing on the deductive nature of reliable thematic coding, the limited depth of immediately verifiable data and the usefulness of such studies to health promotion and the advancement of the qualitative paradigm.

Reliability Centered Maintenance - Methodologies

Science.gov (United States)

Kammerer, Catherine C.

2009-01-01

Journal article about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodologies used by United Space Alliance, LLC (USA) in support of the Space Shuttle Program at Kennedy Space Center. The USA Reliability Centered Maintenance program differs from traditional RCM programs because various methodologies are utilized to take advantage of their respective strengths for each application. Based on operational experience, USA has customized the traditional RCM methodology into a streamlined lean logic path and has implemented the use of statistical tools to drive the process. USA RCM has integrated many of the L6S tools into both RCM methodologies. The tools utilized in the Measure, Analyze, and Improve phases of a Lean Six Sigma project lend themselves to application in the RCM process. All USA RCM methodologies meet the requirements defined in SAE JA 1011, Evaluation Criteria for Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) Processes. The proposed article explores these methodologies.

On reliable discovery of molecular signatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Björkegren Johan

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular signatures are sets of genes, proteins, genetic variants or other variables that can be used as markers for a particular phenotype. Reliable signature discovery methods could yield valuable insight into cell biology and mechanisms of human disease. However, it is currently not clear how to control error rates such as the false discovery rate (FDR in signature discovery. Moreover, signatures for cancer gene expression have been shown to be unstable, that is, difficult to replicate in independent studies, casting doubts on their reliability. Results We demonstrate that with modern prediction methods, signatures that yield accurate predictions may still have a high FDR. Further, we show that even signatures with low FDR may fail to replicate in independent studies due to limited statistical power. Thus, neither stability nor predictive accuracy are relevant when FDR control is the primary goal. We therefore develop a general statistical hypothesis testing framework that for the first time provides FDR control for signature discovery. Our method is demonstrated to be correct in simulation studies. When applied to five cancer data sets, the method was able to discover molecular signatures with 5% FDR in three cases, while two data sets yielded no significant findings. Conclusion Our approach enables reliable discovery of molecular signatures from genome-wide data with current sample sizes. The statistical framework developed herein is potentially applicable to a wide range of prediction problems in bioinformatics.

Statistical Survey of Non-Formal Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ondřej Nývlt

2012-12-01

Full Text Available focused on a programme within a regular education system. Labour market flexibility and new requirements on employees create a new domain of education called non-formal education. Is there a reliable statistical source with a good methodological definition for the Czech Republic? Labour Force Survey (LFS has been the basic statistical source for time comparison of non-formal education for the last ten years. Furthermore, a special Adult Education Survey (AES in 2011 was focused on individual components of non-formal education in a detailed way. In general, the goal of the EU is to use data from both internationally comparable surveys for analyses of the particular fields of lifelong learning in the way, that annual LFS data could be enlarged by detailed information from AES in five years periods. This article describes reliability of statistical data aboutnon-formal education. This analysis is usually connected with sampling and non-sampling errors.

Mechanical reliability analysis of tubes intended for hydrocarbons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahal, Mourad; Khelif, Rabia [Badji Mokhtar University, Annaba (Algeria)

2013-02-15

Reliability analysis constitutes an essential phase in any study concerning reliability. Many industrialists evaluate and improve the reliability of their products during the development cycle - from design to startup (design, manufacture, and exploitation) - to develop their knowledge on cost/reliability ratio and to control sources of failure. In this study, we obtain results for hardness, tensile, and hydrostatic tests carried out on steel tubes for transporting hydrocarbons followed by statistical analysis. Results obtained allow us to conduct a reliability study based on resistance request. Thus, index of reliability is calculated and the importance of the variables related to the tube is presented. Reliability-based assessment of residual stress effects is applied to underground pipelines under a roadway, with and without active corrosion. Residual stress has been found to greatly increase probability of failure, especially in the early stages of pipe lifetime.

Statistical assessment of numerous Monte Carlo tallies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiedrowski, Brian C.; Solomon, Clell J.

2011-01-01

Four tests are developed to assess the statistical reliability of collections of tallies that number in thousands or greater. To this end, the relative-variance density function is developed and its moments are studied using simplified, non-transport models. The statistical tests are performed upon the results of MCNP calculations of three different transport test problems and appear to show that the tests are appropriate indicators of global statistical quality. (author)

Time domain series system definition and gear set reliability modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, Liyang; Wu, Ningxiang; Qian, Wenxue

2016-01-01

Time-dependent multi-configuration is a typical feature for mechanical systems such as gear trains and chain drives. As a series system, a gear train is distinct from a traditional series system, such as a chain, in load transmission path, system-component relationship, system functioning manner, as well as time-dependent system configuration. Firstly, the present paper defines time-domain series system to which the traditional series system reliability model is not adequate. Then, system specific reliability modeling technique is proposed for gear sets, including component (tooth) and subsystem (tooth-pair) load history description, material priori/posterior strength expression, time-dependent and system specific load-strength interference analysis, as well as statistically dependent failure events treatment. Consequently, several system reliability models are developed for gear sets with different tooth numbers in the scenario of tooth root material ultimate tensile strength failure. The application of the models is discussed in the last part, and the differences between the system specific reliability model and the traditional series system reliability model are illustrated by virtue of several numerical examples. - Highlights: • A new type of series system, i.e. time-domain multi-configuration series system is defined, that is of great significance to reliability modeling. • Multi-level statistical analysis based reliability modeling method is presented for gear transmission system. • Several system specific reliability models are established for gear set reliability estimation. • The differences between the traditional series system reliability model and the new model are illustrated.

Reliability and continuous regeneration model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Pavlisková

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The failure-free function of an object is very important for the service. This leads to the interest in the determination of the object reliability and failure intensity. The reliability of an element is defined by the theory of probability.The element durability T is a continuous random variate with the probability density f. The failure intensity (tλ is a very important reliability characteristics of the element. Often it is an increasing function, which corresponds to the element ageing. We disposed of the data about a belt conveyor failures recorded during the period of 90 months. The given ses behaves according to the normal distribution. By using a mathematical analysis and matematical statistics, we found the failure intensity function (tλ. The function (tλ increases almost linearly.

Reliability Assessment of IGBT Modules Modeled as Systems with Correlated Components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2013-01-01

configuration. The estimated system reliability by the proposed method is a conservative estimate. Application of the suggested method could be extended for reliability estimation of systems composing of welding joints, bolts, bearings, etc. The reliability model incorporates the correlation between...... was applied for the systems failure functions estimation. It is desired to compare the results with the true system failure function, which is possible to estimate using simulation techniques. Theoretical model development should be applied for the further research. One of the directions for it might...... be modeling the system based on the Sequential Order Statistics, by considering the failure of the minimum (weakest component) at each loading level. The proposed idea to represent the system by the independent components could also be used for modeling reliability by Sequential Order Statistics....

Chip-Level Electromigration Reliability for Cu Interconnects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gall, M.; Oh, C.; Grinshpon, A.; Zolotov, V.; Panda, R.; Demircan, E.; Mueller, J.; Justison, P.; Ramakrishna, K.; Thrasher, S.; Hernandez, R.; Herrick, M.; Fox, R.; Boeck, B.; Kawasaki, H.; Haznedar, H.; Ku, P.

2004-01-01

Even after the successful introduction of Cu-based metallization, the electromigration (EM) failure risk has remained one of the most important reliability concerns for most advanced process technologies. Ever increasing operating current densities and the introduction of low-k materials in the backend process scheme are some of the issues that threaten reliable, long-term operation at elevated temperatures. The traditional method of verifying EM reliability only through current density limit checks is proving to be inadequate in general, or quite expensive at the best. A Statistical EM Budgeting (SEB) methodology has been proposed to assess more realistic chip-level EM reliability from the complex statistical distribution of currents in a chip. To be valuable, this approach requires accurate estimation of currents for all interconnect segments in a chip. However, no efficient technique to manage the complexity of such a task for very large chip designs is known. We present an efficient method to estimate currents exhaustively for all interconnects in a chip. The proposed method uses pre-characterization of cells and macros, and steps to identify and filter out symmetrically bi-directional interconnects. We illustrate the strength of the proposed approach using a high-performance microprocessor design for embedded applications as a case study

Structural Reliability Methods for Wind Power Converter System Component Reliability Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2012-01-01

Wind power converter systems are essential subsystems in both off-shore and on-shore wind turbines. It is the main interface between generator and grid connection. This system is affected by numerous stresses where the main contributors might be defined as vibration and temperature loadings....... The temperature variations induce time-varying stresses and thereby fatigue loads. A probabilistic model is used to model fatigue failure for an electrical component in the power converter system. This model is based on a linear damage accumulation and physics of failure approaches, where a failure criterion...... is defined by the threshold model. The attention is focused on crack propagation in solder joints of electrical components due to the temperature loadings. Structural Reliability approaches are used to incorporate model, physical and statistical uncertainties. Reliability estimation by means of structural...

Reliability of operating WWER monitoring systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yastrebenetsky, M.A.; Goldrin, V.M.; Garagulya, A.V.

1996-01-01

The elaboration of WWER monitoring systems reliability measures is described in this paper. The evaluation is based on the statistical data about failures what have collected at the Ukrainian operating nuclear power plants (NPP). The main attention is devoted to radiation safety monitoring system and unit information computer system, what collects information from different sensors and system of the unit. Reliability measures were used for decision the problems, connected with life extension of the instruments, and for other purposes. (author). 6 refs, 6 figs

Reliability and validity of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

2009-01-01

In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

Reliability of operating WWER monitoring systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yastrebenetsky, M A; Goldrin, V M; Garagulya, A V [Ukrainian State Scientific Technical Center of Nuclear and Radiation Safety, Kharkov (Ukraine). Instrumentation and Control Systems Dept.

1997-12-31

The elaboration of WWER monitoring systems reliability measures is described in this paper. The evaluation is based on the statistical data about failures what have collected at the Ukrainian operating nuclear power plants (NPP). The main attention is devoted to radiation safety monitoring system and unit information computer system, what collects information from different sensors and system of the unit. Reliability measures were used for decision the problems, connected with life extension of the instruments, and for other purposes. (author). 6 refs, 6 figs.

Reliability of nuclear power plants and equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

The standard sets the general principles, a list of reliability indexes and demands on their selection. Reliability indexes of nuclear power plants include the simple indexes of fail-safe operation, life and maintainability, and of storage capability. All terms and notions are explained and methods of evaluating the indexes briefly listed - statistical, and calculation experimental. The dates when the standard comes in force in the individual CMEA countries are given. (M.D.)

Reliability model analysis and primary experimental evaluation of laser triggered pulse trigger

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Debiao; Yang Xinglin; Li Yuan; Li Jin

2012-01-01

High performance pulse trigger can enhance performance and stability of the PPS. It is necessary to evaluate the reliability of the LTGS pulse trigger, so we establish the reliability analysis model of this pulse trigger based on CARMES software, the reliability evaluation is accord with the statistical results. (authors)

Reliability analysis of component of affination centrifugal 1 machine by using reliability engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Sembiring, N.; Ginting, E.; Darnello, T.

2017-12-01

Problems that appear in a company that produces refined sugar, the production floor has not reached the level of critical machine availability because it often suffered damage (breakdown). This results in a sudden loss of production time and production opportunities. This problem can be solved by Reliability Engineering method where the statistical approach to historical damage data is performed to see the pattern of the distribution. The method can provide a value of reliability, rate of damage, and availability level, of an machine during the maintenance time interval schedule. The result of distribution test to time inter-damage data (MTTF) flexible hose component is lognormal distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. While from distribution test to mean time of improvement (MTTR) flexible hose component is exponential distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. The actual results of the flexible hose component on the replacement schedule per 720 hours obtained reliability of 0.2451 and availability 0.9960. While on the critical components of teflon cone lifthing actual on the replacement schedule per 1944 hours obtained reliability of 0.4083 and availability 0.9927.

The rating reliability calculator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Solomon David J

2004-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

A Method of Nuclear Software Reliability Estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Gee Yong; Eom, Heung Seop; Cheon, Se Woo; Jang, Seung Cheol

2011-01-01

A method on estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM) where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow the non-homogeneous Poisson process. Several modeling schemes are presented in order to estimate and predict more precisely the number of software defects based on a few of software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating the software test cases into the model. It is identified that this method is capable of accurately estimating the remaining number of software defects which are on-demand type directly affecting safety trip functions. The software reliability can be estimated from a model equation and one method of obtaining the software reliability is proposed

Parkinson's disease: the reliability of morbidity and mortality statistics in the Russian Federation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krivonos O.V.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the research was to study the significance of morbidity of Parkinson's disease (PD and mortality in Russian Federation in international comparisons. Material and Methods: In accordance with the purpose of the study the morbidity and mortality were analyzed in the Russian Federation on the basis of volumes "Morbidity in Russia" of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation in 2009-2012, "Human resources for health care institutions" of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation in 2012, tables С 51 about the mortality of subjects of the Russian Federation in 2012, data of mortality from Parkinson's disease in different countries in 2011, published by WHO. Results. The analysis of data on the morbidity patterns showed that in the Russian Federation in 2009-2012 there was an increase in general morbidity of adult patients with PD from 75.1 to 87.7 per thousand of populations. The data of primary morbidity in the adult population of the Russian Federation from PD also tend to increase from 8.0 to 8.5 per thousand of populations. The sharp fluctuations of mortality's data were revealed in subject of Russian Federation that was related of unreliable data. Mortality from PD in Russian Federation in 2012 was 0.31 per thousand of populations. Conclusion. The values in the study of general and primary PD's morbidity in the Russian Federation were lower than performance in international comparisons. PD's mortality in Russia was also lower than in other developed countries. Abidance by rules of selecting the primary cause of death (PCOD, confirmed by an automated system, where one of the causes is PD will make mortality statistics of PD reliable and internationally comparable.

System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Reliability in the Rasch Model

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Martinková, Patrícia; Zvára, K.

2007-01-01

Roč. 43, č. 3 (2007), s. 315-326 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06014 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : Cronbach's alpha * Rasch model * reliability Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.552, year: 2007 http://dml.cz/handle/10338.dmlcz/135776

Reliability of Composite Dichotomous Measurements

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Martinková, Patrícia; Zvára, Karel

2010-01-01

Roč. 6, č. 2 (2010), s. 103-109 ISSN 1801-5603 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06014 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : reliability * binary data * logistic regression * Cronbach alpha * Rasch model * myocardial perfusion diagnosis Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://www.ejbi.cz/articles/201012/65/1.html

Reliability studies in a developing technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, L.A.; Osgood, C.; Radcliffe, S.J.

1975-01-01

The standard methods of reliability analysis can only be applied if valid failure statistics are available. In a developing technology the statistics which have been accumulated, over many years of conventional experience, are often rendered useless by environmental effects. Thus new data, which take account of the new environment, are required. This paper discusses the problem of optimizing the acquisition of these data when time-scales and resources are limited. It is concluded that the most fruitful strategy in assessing the reliability of mechanisms is to study the failures of individual joints whilst developing, where necessary, analytical tools to facilitate the use of these data. The approach is illustrated by examples from the field of tribology. Failures of rolling element bearings in moist, high-pressure carbon dioxide illustrate the important effects of apparently minor changes in the environment. New analytical techniques are developed from a study of friction failures in sliding joints. (author)

Validity and Reliability of the Clock Drawing Test in Older People

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massoumeh Sadeghipour Roodsari

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Early diagnosis of cognitive disorders in order to initiate new efficient treatments in time is an important task which cannot be fulfilled without proper cognitive screening tools. The Clock Drawing Test (CDT is a simple inexpensive cognitive screening tool which can be used in primary care settings delivering health services to older people. The aim of this study was to assess validity and reliability of the CDT in Iranian older population. Methods & Materials: In this study the CDT and Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE were concurrently performed on 74 literate participants aged 60 and over. Participants were recruited from the clients of Iran Alzheimer’s Association (dementia patients and non-demented clients, including other patients or care givers during a 5 month period. The CDT was performed by two trained raters using Shulman’s six points scoring method. Using SPSS version 20, reliability was assessed measuring kappa statistics as well as ICC. Concurrent validity between CDT and MMSE were statistically analyzed by spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Results: Mean age of the participants was 72 years in a range of 60 to 90 years with equal numbers 0f male and female participants. Kappa statistics for test retest reliability was 0.554 (P<0.001. ICC for inter rater reliability was 0.964 (P<0.001. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient for MMSE and CDT scores was 0.782, statistically significant at P<0.001. Conclusion: CDT is a valid and reliable test in literate older people that can be used as a cognitive screening tool in Iranian older population.

Statistical quality management using miniTAB 14

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An, Seong Jin

2007-01-01

This book explains statistical quality management giving descriptions of definition of quality, quality management, quality cost, basic methods of quality management, principles of control chart, control chart for variables, control chart for attributes, capability analysis, other issues of statistical process control, acceptance sampling, sampling for variable acceptance, design and analysis of experiment, Taguchi quality engineering, reaction surface methodology reliability analysis.

Reducing Reliability Uncertainties for Marine Renewable Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sam D. Weller

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs are a widely used metric of technology maturity and risk for marine renewable energy (MRE devices. To-date, a large number of device concepts have been proposed which have reached the early validation stages of development (TRLs 1–3. Only a handful of mature designs have attained pre-commercial development status following prototype sea trials (TRLs 7–8. In order to navigate through the aptly named “valley of death” (TRLs 4–6 towards commercial realisation, it is necessary for new technologies to be de-risked in terms of component durability and reliability. In this paper the scope of the reliability assessment module of the DTOcean Design Tool is outlined including aspects of Tool integration, data provision and how prediction uncertainties are accounted for. In addition, two case studies are reported of mooring component fatigue testing providing insight into long-term component use and system design for MRE devices. The case studies are used to highlight how test data could be utilised to improve the prediction capabilities of statistical reliability assessment approaches, such as the bottom–up statistical method.

The design and use of reliability data base with analysis tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doorepall, J.; Cooke, R.; Paulsen, J.; Hokstadt, P.

1996-06-01

With the advent of sophisticated computer tools, it is possible to give a distributed population of users direct access to reliability component operational histories. This allows the user a greater freedom in defining statistical populations of components and selecting failure modes. However, the reliability data analyst`s current analytical instrumentarium is not adequate for this purpose. The terminology used in organizing and gathering reliability data is standardized, and the statistical methods used in analyzing this data are not always suitably chosen. This report attempts to establish a baseline with regard to terminology and analysis methods, to support the use of a new analysis tool. It builds on results obtained in several projects for the ESTEC and SKI on the design of reliability databases. Starting with component socket time histories, we identify a sequence of questions which should be answered prior to the employment of analytical methods. These questions concern the homogeneity and stationarity of (possible dependent) competing failure modes and the independence of competing failure modes. Statistical tests, some of them new, are proposed for answering these questions. Attention is given to issues of non-identifiability of competing risk and clustering of failure-repair events. These ideas have been implemented in an analysis tool for grazing component socket time histories, and illustrative results are presented. The appendix provides background on statistical tests and competing failure modes. (au) 4 tabs., 17 ills., 61 refs.

The design and use of reliability data base with analysis tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doorepall, J.; Cooke, R.; Paulsen, J.; Hokstadt, P.

1996-06-01

With the advent of sophisticated computer tools, it is possible to give a distributed population of users direct access to reliability component operational histories. This allows the user a greater freedom in defining statistical populations of components and selecting failure modes. However, the reliability data analyst's current analytical instrumentarium is not adequate for this purpose. The terminology used in organizing and gathering reliability data is standardized, and the statistical methods used in analyzing this data are not always suitably chosen. This report attempts to establish a baseline with regard to terminology and analysis methods, to support the use of a new analysis tool. It builds on results obtained in several projects for the ESTEC and SKI on the design of reliability databases. Starting with component socket time histories, we identify a sequence of questions which should be answered prior to the employment of analytical methods. These questions concern the homogeneity and stationarity of (possible dependent) competing failure modes and the independence of competing failure modes. Statistical tests, some of them new, are proposed for answering these questions. Attention is given to issues of non-identifiability of competing risk and clustering of failure-repair events. These ideas have been implemented in an analysis tool for grazing component socket time histories, and illustrative results are presented. The appendix provides background on statistical tests and competing failure modes. (au) 4 tabs., 17 ills., 61 refs

Models on reliability of non-destructive testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.; Pulkkinen, U.

1998-01-01

The reliability of ultrasonic inspections has been studied in e.g. international PISC (Programme for the Inspection of Steel Components) exercises. These exercises have produced a large amount of information on the effect of various factors on the reliability of inspections. The information obtained from reliability experiments are used to model the dependency of flaw detection probability on various factors and to evaluate the performance of inspection equipment, including the sizing accuracy. The information from experiments is utilised in a most effective way when mathematical models are applied. Here, some statistical models for reliability of non-destructive tests are introduced. In order to demonstrate the use of inspection reliability models, they have been applied to the inspection results of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) type flaws in PISC III exercise (PISC 1995). The models are applied to both flaw detection frequency data of all inspection teams and to flaw sizing data of one participating team. (author)

Development of reliability-based safety enhancement technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kil Yoo; Han, Sang Hoon; Jang, Seung Cherl

2002-04-01

This project aims to develop critical technologies and the necessary reliability DB for maximizing the economics in the NPP operation with keeping the safety using the information of the risk (or reliability). For the research goal, firstly the four critical technologies(Risk Informed Tech. Spec. Optimization, Risk Informed Inservice Testing, On-line Maintenance, Maintenance Rule) for RIR and A have been developed. Secondly, KIND (Korea Information System for Nuclear Reliability Data) has been developed. Using KIND, YGN 3,4 and UCN 3,4 component reliability DB have been established. A reactor trip history DB for all NPP in Korea also has been developed and analyzed. Finally, a detailed reliability analysis of RPS/ESFAS for KNSP has been performed. With the result of the analysis, the sensitivity analysis also has been performed to optimize the AOT/STI of tech. spec. A statistical analysis procedure and computer code have been developed for the set point drift analysis

NDE reliability gains from combining eddy-current and ultrasonic testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horn, D.; Mayo, W.R.

1999-01-01

We investigate statistical methods for combining the results of two complementary inspection techniques, eddy-current and ultrasonic testing. The reliability of rejection/acceptance decisions based on combined information is compared with that based on each inspection technique individually. The measured reliability increases with the amount of information incorporated in the decision. (author)

Exploration of reliability databases and comparison of former IFMIF's results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tapia, Carlos; Dies, Javier; Abal, Javier; Ibarra, Angel; Arroyo, Jose M.

2011-01-01

There is an uncertainty issue about the applicability of industrial databases to new designs, such as the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF), as they usually contain elements for which no historical statistics exist. The exploration of common components reliability data in Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) and Liquid Metal Technologies (LMT) frameworks is the milestone to analyze the data used in IFMIF reliability's reports and for future studies. The comparison between the reliability accelerator results given in the former IFMIF's reports and the databases explored has been made by means of a new accelerator Reliability, Availability, Maintainability (RAM) analysis. The reliability database used in this analysis is traceable.

Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

High level issues in reliability quantification of safety-critical software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol

2012-01-01

For the purpose of developing a consensus method for the reliability assessment of safety-critical digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants, several high level issues in reliability assessment of the safety-critical software based on Bayesian belief network modeling and statistical testing are discussed. Related to the Bayesian belief network modeling, the relation between the assessment approach and the sources of evidence, the relation between qualitative evidence and quantitative evidence, how to consider qualitative evidence, and the cause-consequence relation are discussed. Related to the statistical testing, the need of the consideration of context-specific software failure probabilities and the inability to perform a huge number of tests in the real world are discussed. The discussions in this paper are expected to provide a common basis for future discussions on the reliability assessment of safety-critical software. (author)

A Reliability Based Model for Wind Turbine Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.K. Rajeevan

2013-06-01

Full Text Available A wind turbine generator output at a specific site depends on many factors, particularly cut- in, rated and cut-out wind speed parameters. Hence power output varies from turbine to turbine. The objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical relationship between reliability and wind power generation. The analytical computation of monthly wind power is obtained from weibull statistical model using cubic mean cube root of wind speed. Reliability calculation is based on failure probability analysis. There are many different types of wind turbinescommercially available in the market. From reliability point of view, to get optimum reliability in power generation, it is desirable to select a wind turbine generator which is best suited for a site. The mathematical relationship developed in this paper can be used for site-matching turbine selection in reliability point of view.

Increasing the reliability of the fluid/crystallized difference score from the Kaufman Adolescent and Adult Intelligence Test with reliable component analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Caruso, J C

2001-06-01

The unreliability of difference scores is a well documented phenomenon in the social sciences and has led researchers and practitioners to interpret differences cautiously, if at all. In the case of the Kaufman Adult and Adolescent Intelligence Test (KAIT), the unreliability of the difference between the Fluid IQ and the Crystallized IQ is due to the high correlation between the two scales. The consequences of the lack of precision with which differences are identified are wide confidence intervals and unpowerful significance tests (i.e., large differences are required to be declared statistically significant). Reliable component analysis (RCA) was performed on the subtests of the KAIT in order to address these problems. RCA is a new data reduction technique that results in uncorrelated component scores with maximum proportions of reliable variance. Results indicate that the scores defined by RCA have discriminant and convergent validity (with respect to the equally weighted scores) and that differences between the scores, derived from a single testing session, were more reliable than differences derived from equal weighting for each age group (11-14 years, 15-34 years, 35-85+ years). This reliability advantage results in narrower confidence intervals around difference scores and smaller differences required for statistical significance.

Evaluation of aileron actuator reliability with censored data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Huaiyuan

2015-08-01

Full Text Available For the purpose of enhancing reliability of aileron of Airbus new-generation A350XWB, an evaluation of aileron reliability on the basis of maintenance data is presented in this paper. Practical maintenance data contains large number of censoring samples, information uncertainty of which makes it hard to evaluate reliability of aileron actuator. Considering that true lifetime of censoring sample has identical distribution with complete sample, if censoring sample is transformed into complete sample, conversion frequency of censoring sample can be estimated according to frequency of complete sample. On the one hand, standard life table estimation and product limit method are improved on the basis of such conversion frequency, enabling accurate estimation of various censoring samples. On the other hand, by taking such frequency as one of the weight factors and integrating variance of order statistics under standard distribution, weighted least square estimation is formed for accurately estimating various censoring samples. Large amounts of experiments and simulations show that reliabilities of improved life table and improved product limit method are closer to the true value and more conservative; moreover, weighted least square estimate (WLSE, with conversion frequency of censoring sample and variances of order statistics as the weights, can still estimate accurately with high proportion of censored data in samples. Algorithm in this paper has good effect and can accurately estimate the reliability of aileron actuator even with small sample and high censoring rate. This research has certain significance in theory and engineering practice.

Reliability of pulse diagnosis in traditional Indian Ayurveda medicine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon

2013-01-01

In Ayurveda, pulse diagnosis is an important diagnostic method to assess the status of three doshas (bio-entity: vata, pitta and kapha) in the patient. However, this is only justifiable if this method is reliable. The aim of this study is to test the intra-rater and inter-rater reliability of pulse...... diagnosed various combinations of three bio-entities vata, pitta and kapha based on the qualitative description of pulse pattern in Ayurveda. Cohen's weighted kappa statistic was used as a measure of reliability and hypothesis of homogeneous diagnosis (random rating) was tested. The level of weighted kappa...... statistics for each doctor was -0.18, 0.12, 0.31, -0.02, 0.48, 0.1, 0.26, 0.2, 0.34, 0.15, 0.56, 0.03, 0.36, 0.21, 0.4 respectively and the hypothesis of homogeneous diagnosis was only significant (p = 0.04) at the 5 % level for one doctor. The kappa values are in general bigger for the group...

Reliability studies of high operating temperature MCT photoconductor detectors

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Xu, Jintong; Zhang, Yan; Li, Xiangyang

2010-10-01

This paper concerns HgCdTe (MCT) infrared photoconductor detectors with high operating temperature. The near room temperature operation of detectors have advantages of light weight, less cost and convenient usage. Their performances are modest and they suffer from reliable problems. These detectors face with stability of the package, chip bonding area and passivation layers. It's important to evaluate and improve the reliability of such detectors. Defective detectors were studied with SEM(Scanning electron microscope) and microscopy. Statistically significant differences were observed between the influence of operating temperature and the influence of humidity. It was also found that humility has statistically significant influence upon the stability of the chip bonding and passivation layers, and the amount of humility isn't strongly correlated to the damage on the surface. Considering about the commonly found failures modes in detectors, special test structures were designed to improve the reliability of detectors. An accelerated life test was also implemented to estimate the lifetime of the high operating temperature MCT photoconductor detectors.

Mathematical Methods in Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life

CERN Document Server

Huber, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir

2008-01-01

Reliability and survival analysis are important applications of stochastic mathematics (probability, statistics and stochastic processes) that are usually covered separately in spite of the similarity of the involved mathematical theory. This title aims to redress this situation: it includes 21 chapters divided into four parts: Survival analysis, Reliability, Quality of life, and Related topics. Many of these chapters were presented at the European Seminar on Mathematical Methods for Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life in 2006.

Reliability concepts applied to cutting tool change time

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patino Rodriguez, Carmen Elena, E-mail: cpatino@udea.edu.c [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Antioquia, Medellin (Colombia); Department of Mechatronics and Mechanical Systems, Polytechnic School, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Francisco Martha de Souza, Gilberto [Department of Mechatronics and Mechanical Systems, Polytechnic School, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

2010-08-15

This paper presents a reliability-based analysis for calculating critical tool life in machining processes. It is possible to determine the running time for each tool involved in the process by obtaining the operations sequence for the machining procedure. Usually, the reliability of an operation depends on three independent factors: operator, machine-tool and cutting tool. The reliability of a part manufacturing process is mainly determined by the cutting time for each job and by the sequence of operations, defined by the series configuration. An algorithm is presented to define when the cutting tool must be changed. The proposed algorithm is used to evaluate the reliability of a manufacturing process composed of turning and drilling operations. The reliability of the turning operation is modeled based on data presented in the literature, and from experimental results, a statistical distribution of drilling tool wear was defined, and the reliability of the drilling process was modeled.

Reliability concepts applied to cutting tool change time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patino Rodriguez, Carmen Elena; Francisco Martha de Souza, Gilberto

2010-01-01

This paper presents a reliability-based analysis for calculating critical tool life in machining processes. It is possible to determine the running time for each tool involved in the process by obtaining the operations sequence for the machining procedure. Usually, the reliability of an operation depends on three independent factors: operator, machine-tool and cutting tool. The reliability of a part manufacturing process is mainly determined by the cutting time for each job and by the sequence of operations, defined by the series configuration. An algorithm is presented to define when the cutting tool must be changed. The proposed algorithm is used to evaluate the reliability of a manufacturing process composed of turning and drilling operations. The reliability of the turning operation is modeled based on data presented in the literature, and from experimental results, a statistical distribution of drilling tool wear was defined, and the reliability of the drilling process was modeled.

Reliability and validity of a nutrition and physical activity environmental self-assessment for child care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ammerman Alice S

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Few assessment instruments have examined the nutrition and physical activity environments in child care, and none are self-administered. Given the emerging focus on child care settings as a target for intervention, a valid and reliable measure of the nutrition and physical activity environment is needed. Methods To measure inter-rater reliability, 59 child care center directors and 109 staff completed the self-assessment concurrently, but independently. Three weeks later, a repeat self-assessment was completed by a sub-sample of 38 directors to assess test-retest reliability. To assess criterion validity, a researcher-administered environmental assessment was conducted at 69 centers and was compared to a self-assessment completed by the director. A weighted kappa test statistic and percent agreement were calculated to assess agreement for each question on the self-assessment. Results For inter-rater reliability, kappa statistics ranged from 0.20 to 1.00 across all questions. Test-retest reliability of the self-assessment yielded kappa statistics that ranged from 0.07 to 1.00. The inter-quartile kappa statistic ranges for inter-rater and test-retest reliability were 0.45 to 0.63 and 0.27 to 0.45, respectively. When percent agreement was calculated, questions ranged from 52.6% to 100% for inter-rater reliability and 34.3% to 100% for test-retest reliability. Kappa statistics for validity ranged from -0.01 to 0.79, with an inter-quartile range of 0.08 to 0.34. Percent agreement for validity ranged from 12.9% to 93.7%. Conclusion This study provides estimates of criterion validity, inter-rater reliability and test-retest reliability for an environmental nutrition and physical activity self-assessment instrument for child care. Results indicate that the self-assessment is a stable and reasonably accurate instrument for use with child care interventions. We therefore recommend the Nutrition and Physical Activity Self-Assessment for

Advances in ranking and selection, multiple comparisons, and reliability methodology and applications

CERN Document Server

Balakrishnan, N; Nagaraja, HN

2007-01-01

S. Panchapakesan has made significant contributions to ranking and selection and has published in many other areas of statistics, including order statistics, reliability theory, stochastic inequalities, and inference. Written in his honor, the twenty invited articles in this volume reflect recent advances in these areas and form a tribute to Panchapakesan's influence and impact on these areas. Thematically organized, the chapters cover a broad range of topics from: Inference; Ranking and Selection; Multiple Comparisons and Tests; Agreement Assessment; Reliability; and Biostatistics. Featuring

Quantitative study on the statistical properties of fibre architecture of genuine and numerical composite microstructures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Jens Zangenberg; Brøndsted, Povl

2013-01-01

A quantitative study is carried out regarding the statistical properties of the fibre architecture found in composite laminates and that generated numerically using Statistical Representative Volume Elements (SRVE’s). The aim is to determine the reliability and consistency of SRVE’s for represent......A quantitative study is carried out regarding the statistical properties of the fibre architecture found in composite laminates and that generated numerically using Statistical Representative Volume Elements (SRVE’s). The aim is to determine the reliability and consistency of SRVE...

Binge Eating Disorder: Reliability and Validity of a New Diagnostic Category.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Michelle L.; And Others

1994-01-01

Examined reliability and validity of binge eating disorder (BED), proposed for inclusion in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), fourth edition. Interrater reliability of BED diagnosis compared favorably with that of most diagnoses in DSM revised third edition. Study comparing obese individuals with and without BED and…

NDE reliability and probability of detection (POD) evolution and paradigm shift

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Surendra [NDE Engineering, Materials and Process Engineering, Honeywell Aerospace, Phoenix, AZ 85034 (United States)

2014-02-18

The subject of NDE Reliability and POD has gone through multiple phases since its humble beginning in the late 1960s. This was followed by several programs including the important one nicknamed “Have Cracks – Will Travel” or in short “Have Cracks” by Lockheed Georgia Company for US Air Force during 1974–1978. This and other studies ultimately led to a series of developments in the field of reliability and POD starting from the introduction of fracture mechanics and Damaged Tolerant Design (DTD) to statistical framework by Bernes and Hovey in 1981 for POD estimation to MIL-STD HDBK 1823 (1999) and 1823A (2009). During the last decade, various groups and researchers have further studied the reliability and POD using Model Assisted POD (MAPOD), Simulation Assisted POD (SAPOD), and applying Bayesian Statistics. All and each of these developments had one objective, i.e., improving accuracy of life prediction in components that to a large extent depends on the reliability and capability of NDE methods. Therefore, it is essential to have a reliable detection and sizing of large flaws in components. Currently, POD is used for studying reliability and capability of NDE methods, though POD data offers no absolute truth regarding NDE reliability, i.e., system capability, effects of flaw morphology, and quantifying the human factors. Furthermore, reliability and POD have been reported alike in meaning but POD is not NDE reliability. POD is a subset of the reliability that consists of six phases: 1) samples selection using DOE, 2) NDE equipment setup and calibration, 3) System Measurement Evaluation (SME) including Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R and R) and Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA), 4) NDE system capability and electronic and physical saturation, 5) acquiring and fitting data to a model, and data analysis, and 6) POD estimation. This paper provides an overview of all major POD milestones for the last several decades and discuss rationale for using

Analysis of time-dependent reliability of degenerated reinforced concrete structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Hongping

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Durability deterioration of structure is a highly random process. The maintenance of degenerated structure involves the calculation of the reliability of time-dependent structure. This study introduced reinforced concrete structure resistance decrease model and related statistical parameters of uncertainty, analyzed resistance decrease rules of corroded bending element of reinforced concrete structure, and finally calculated timedependent reliability of the corroded bending element of reinforced concrete structure, aiming to provide a specific theoretical basis for the application of time-dependent reliability theory.

Characterizing reliability in a product/process design-assurance program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerscher, W.J. III [Delphi Energy and Engine Management Systems, Flint, MI (United States); Booker, J.M.; Bement, T.R.; Meyer, M.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

1997-10-01

Over the years many advancing techniques in the area of reliability engineering have surfaced in the military sphere of influence, and one of these techniques is Reliability Growth Testing (RGT). Private industry has reviewed RGT as part of the solution to their reliability concerns, but many practical considerations have slowed its implementation. It`s objective is to demonstrate the reliability requirement of a new product with a specified confidence. This paper speaks directly to that objective but discusses a somewhat different approach to achieving it. Rather than conducting testing as a continuum and developing statistical confidence bands around the results, this Bayesian updating approach starts with a reliability estimate characterized by large uncertainty and then proceeds to reduce the uncertainty by folding in fresh information in a Bayesian framework.

Quality and reliability of technical systems. 2. rev. and enlarged ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birolini, A.

1988-01-01

The work comprises, besides the definition of fundamentals, mathematical methods and tables, a detailed compilation of theory, practice and management in the field of quality assurance and reliability. Complete chapters are dedicated in particular to the reliability analyses, selection and qualification of electronic components, maintenance analyses in the development phase, quality assurance of the software, reliability and availability of repairable visual display units, statistical quality control as well as the improvement of the quality and reliability in the production phase of electronic components. (DG) With 152 figs., 58 tabs., 92 examples [de

Statistical calculation of hot channel factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farhadi, K.

2007-01-01

It is a conventional practice in the design of nuclear reactors to introduce hot channel factors to allow for spatial variations of power generation and flow distribution. Consequently, it is not enough to be able to calculate the nominal temperature distributions of fuel element, cladding, coolant, and central fuel. Indeed, one must be able to calculate the probability that the imposed temperature or heat flux limits in the entire core is not exceeded. In this paper, statistical methods are used to calculate hot channel factors for a particular case of a heterogeneous, Material Testing Reactor (MTR) and compare the results obtained from different statistical methods. It is shown that among the statistical methods available, the semi-statistical method is the most reliable one

Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

Science.gov (United States)

Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

2015-10-01

Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced. © RSNA, 2015.

Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Yizhen; Wang, Yu; Zi, YanYang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Zhang, Chuhua

2017-01-01

The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented. - Highlights: • A new multiple imputation strategy was developed to derive the PDF of missing data. • A new order statistic model was developed to simplify the imputation procedure. • The parameters of the order statistic model were iteratively inferred by MCEM. • A real cases study was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Highlights from the early (and pre-) history of reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleh, J.H.; Marais, K.

2006-01-01

Reliability is a popular concept that has been celebrated for years as a commendable attribute of a person or an artifact. From its modest beginning in 1816-the word reliability was first coined by Samuel T. Coleridge-reliability grew into an omnipresent attribute with qualitative and quantitative connotations that pervades every aspect of our present day technologically intensive world. In this short communication, we highlight key events and the history of ideas that led to the birth of Reliability Engineering, and its development in the subsequent decades. We first argue that statistics and mass production were the enablers in the rise of this new discipline, and the catalyst that accelerated the coming of this new discipline was the (unreliability of the) vacuum tube. We highlight the foundational role of AGREE report in 1957 in the birth of reliability engineering, and discuss the consolidation of numerous efforts in the 1950s into a coherent new technical discipline. We show that an evolution took place in the discipline in the following two decades along two directions: first, there was an increased specialization in the discipline (increased sophistication of statistical techniques, and the rise of a new branch focused on the actual physics of failure of components, Reliability Physics); second, there occurred a shift in the emphasis of the discipline from a component-centric to an emphasis on system-level attributes (system reliability, availability, safety). Finally, in selecting the particular events and highlights in the history of ideas that led to the birth and subsequent development of reliability engineering, we acknowledge a subjective component in this work and make no claims to exhaustiveness

An Efficient and Reliable Statistical Method for Estimating Functional Connectivity in Large Scale Brain Networks Using Partial Correlation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yikai; Kang, Jian; Kemmer, Phebe B; Guo, Ying

2016-01-01

Currently, network-oriented analysis of fMRI data has become an important tool for understanding brain organization and brain networks. Among the range of network modeling methods, partial correlation has shown great promises in accurately detecting true brain network connections. However, the application of partial correlation in investigating brain connectivity, especially in large-scale brain networks, has been limited so far due to the technical challenges in its estimation. In this paper, we propose an efficient and reliable statistical method for estimating partial correlation in large-scale brain network modeling. Our method derives partial correlation based on the precision matrix estimated via Constrained L1-minimization Approach (CLIME), which is a recently developed statistical method that is more efficient and demonstrates better performance than the existing methods. To help select an appropriate tuning parameter for sparsity control in the network estimation, we propose a new Dens-based selection method that provides a more informative and flexible tool to allow the users to select the tuning parameter based on the desired sparsity level. Another appealing feature of the Dens-based method is that it is much faster than the existing methods, which provides an important advantage in neuroimaging applications. Simulation studies show that the Dens-based method demonstrates comparable or better performance with respect to the existing methods in network estimation. We applied the proposed partial correlation method to investigate resting state functional connectivity using rs-fMRI data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) study. Our results show that partial correlation analysis removed considerable between-module marginal connections identified by full correlation analysis, suggesting these connections were likely caused by global effects or common connection to other nodes. Based on partial correlation, we find that the most significant

On reliability of system composed from parallel units subject to increasing load

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Volf, Petr; Linka, A.

2000-01-01

Roč. 7, č. 4 (2000), s. 271-284 ISSN 0218-5393 R&D Projects: GA MŠk VS97084 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1075907 Keywords : reliability * mathematical statistics * parallel system Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

MOV reliability evaluation and periodic verification scheduling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bunte, B.D.

1996-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to establish a periodic verification testing schedule based on the expected long term reliability of gate or globe motor operated valves (MOVs). The methodology in this position paper determines the nominal (best estimate) design margin for any MOV based on the best available information pertaining to the MOVs design requirements, design parameters, existing hardware design, and present setup. The uncertainty in this margin is then determined using statistical means. By comparing the nominal margin to the uncertainty, the reliability of the MOV is estimated. The methodology is appropriate for evaluating the reliability of MOVs in the GL 89-10 program. It may be used following periodic testing to evaluate and trend MOV performance and reliability. It may also be used to evaluate the impact of proposed modifications and maintenance activities such as packing adjustments. In addition, it may be used to assess the impact of new information of a generic nature which impacts safety related MOVs.

Evaluation of structural reliability using simulation methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baballëku Markel

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Eurocode describes the 'index of reliability' as a measure of structural reliability, related to the 'probability of failure'. This paper is focused on the assessment of this index for a reinforced concrete bridge pier. It is rare to explicitly use reliability concepts for design of structures, but the problems of structural engineering are better known through them. Some of the main methods for the estimation of the probability of failure are the exact analytical integration, numerical integration, approximate analytical methods and simulation methods. Monte Carlo Simulation is used in this paper, because it offers a very good tool for the estimation of probability in multivariate functions. Complicated probability and statistics problems are solved through computer aided simulations of a large number of tests. The procedures of structural reliability assessment for the bridge pier and the comparison with the partial factor method of the Eurocodes have been demonstrated in this paper.

MOV reliability evaluation and periodic verification scheduling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunte, B.D.

1996-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to establish a periodic verification testing schedule based on the expected long term reliability of gate or globe motor operated valves (MOVs). The methodology in this position paper determines the nominal (best estimate) design margin for any MOV based on the best available information pertaining to the MOVs design requirements, design parameters, existing hardware design, and present setup. The uncertainty in this margin is then determined using statistical means. By comparing the nominal margin to the uncertainty, the reliability of the MOV is estimated. The methodology is appropriate for evaluating the reliability of MOVs in the GL 89-10 program. It may be used following periodic testing to evaluate and trend MOV performance and reliability. It may also be used to evaluate the impact of proposed modifications and maintenance activities such as packing adjustments. In addition, it may be used to assess the impact of new information of a generic nature which impacts safety related MOVs

Energy Statistics Manual; Manuel sur les statistiques de l'energie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Detailed, complete, timely and reliable statistics are essential to monitor the energy situation at a country level as well as at an international level. Energy statistics on supply, trade, stocks, transformation and demand are indeed the basis for any sound energy policy decision. For instance, the market of oil -- which is the largest traded commodity worldwide -- needs to be closely monitored in order for all market players to know at any time what is produced, traded, stocked and consumed and by whom. In view of the role and importance of energy in world development, one would expect that basic energy information to be readily available and reliable. This is not always the case and one can even observe a decline in the quality, coverage and timeliness of energy statistics over the last few years.

Hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De wael, Annelies, E-mail: annelies.dewael@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); De Backer, Annick [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Jones, Lewys; Nellist, Peter D. [Department of Materials, University of Oxford, Parks Road, OX1 3PH Oxford (United Kingdom); Van Aert, Sandra, E-mail: sandra.vanaert@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium)

2017-06-15

A hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF STEM) images of monotype crystalline nanostructures is presented. Different atom-counting methods already exist for model-like systems. However, the increasing relevance of radiation damage in the study of nanostructures demands a method that allows atom-counting from low dose images with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, the hybrid method directly includes prior knowledge from image simulations into the existing statistics-based method for atom-counting, and accounts in this manner for possible discrepancies between actual and simulated experimental conditions. It is shown by means of simulations and experiments that this hybrid method outperforms the statistics-based method, especially for low electron doses and small nanoparticles. The analysis of a simulated low dose image of a small nanoparticle suggests that this method allows for far more reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials. - Highlights: • A hybrid method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images is introduced. • Image simulations are incorporated into a statistical framework in a reliable manner. • Limits of the existing methods for atom-counting are far exceeded. • Reliable counting results from an experimental low dose image are obtained. • Progress towards reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials is made.

Reliability demonstration of imaging surveillance systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheridan, T.F.; Henderson, J.T.; MacDiarmid, P.R.

1979-01-01

Security surveillance systems which employ closed circuit television are being deployed with increasing frequency for the protection of property and other valuable assets. A need exists to demonstrate the reliability of such systems before their installation to assure that the deployed systems will operate when needed with only the scheduled amount of maintenance and support costs. An approach to the reliability demonstration of imaging surveillance systems which employ closed circuit television is described. Failure definitions based on industry television standards and imaging alarm assessment criteria for surveillance systems are discussed. Test methods which allow 24 hour a day operation without the need for numerous test scenarios, test personnel and elaborate test facilities are presented. Existing reliability demonstration standards are shown to apply which obviate the need for elaborate statistical tests. The demonstration methods employed are shown to have applications in other types of imaging surveillance systems besides closed circuit television

Reliability analysis of HVDC grid combined with power flow simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Yongtao; Langeland, Tore; Solvik, Johan [DNV AS, Hoevik (Norway); Stewart, Emma [DNV KEMA, Camino Ramon, CA (United States)

2012-07-01

Based on a DC grid power flow solver and the proposed GEIR, we carried out reliability analysis for a HVDC grid test system proposed by CIGRE working group B4-58, where the failure statistics are collected from literature survey. The proposed methodology is used to evaluate the impact of converter configuration on the overall reliability performance of the HVDC grid, where the symmetrical monopole configuration is compared with the bipole with metallic return wire configuration. The results quantify the improvement on reliability by using the later alternative. (orig.)

Reliability analysis of neutron transport simulation using Monte Carlo method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza, Bismarck A. de; Borges, Jose C.

1995-01-01

This work presents a statistical and reliability analysis covering data obtained by computer simulation of neutron transport process, using the Monte Carlo method. A general description of the method and its applications is presented. Several simulations, corresponding to slowing down and shielding problems have been accomplished. The influence of the physical dimensions of the materials and of the sample size on the reliability level of results was investigated. The objective was to optimize the sample size, in order to obtain reliable results, optimizing computation time. (author). 5 refs, 8 figs

Neglect Of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rózsás Árpád

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Parameter estimation uncertainty is often neglected in reliability studies, i.e. point estimates of distribution parameters are used for representative fractiles, and in probabilistic models. A numerical example examines the effect of this uncertainty on structural reliability using Bayesian statistics. The study reveals that the neglect of parameter estimation uncertainty might lead to an order of magnitude underestimation of failure probability.

REANALYSIS OF F-STATISTIC GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE SEARCHES WITH THE HIGHER CRITICISM STATISTIC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, M. F.; Melatos, A.; Delaigle, A.; Hall, P.

2013-01-01

We propose a new method of gravitational-wave detection using a modified form of higher criticism, a statistical technique introduced by Donoho and Jin. Higher criticism is designed to detect a group of sparse, weak sources, none of which are strong enough to be reliably estimated or detected individually. We apply higher criticism as a second-pass method to synthetic F-statistic and C-statistic data for a monochromatic periodic source in a binary system and quantify the improvement relative to the first-pass methods. We find that higher criticism on C-statistic data is more sensitive by ∼6% than the C-statistic alone under optimal conditions (i.e., binary orbit known exactly) and the relative advantage increases as the error in the orbital parameters increases. Higher criticism is robust even when the source is not monochromatic (e.g., phase-wandering in an accreting system). Applying higher criticism to a phase-wandering source over multiple time intervals gives a ∼> 30% increase in detectability with few assumptions about the frequency evolution. By contrast, in all-sky searches for unknown periodic sources, which are dominated by the brightest source, second-pass higher criticism does not provide any benefits over a first-pass search.

The reliability of commonly used electrophysiology measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, K E; Lohse, K R; Mayer, I M S; Strigaro, G; Desikan, M; Casula, E P; Meunier, S; Popa, T; Lamy, J-C; Odish, O; Leavitt, B R; Durr, A; Roos, R A C; Tabrizi, S J; Rothwell, J C; Boyd, L A; Orth, M

Electrophysiological measures can help understand brain function both in healthy individuals and in the context of a disease. Given the amount of information that can be extracted from these measures and their frequent use, it is essential to know more about their inherent reliability. To understand the reliability of electrophysiology measures in healthy individuals. We hypothesized that measures of threshold and latency would be the most reliable and least susceptible to methodological differences between study sites. Somatosensory evoked potentials from 112 control participants; long-latency reflexes, transcranial magnetic stimulation with resting and active motor thresholds, motor evoked potential latencies, input/output curves, and short-latency sensory afferent inhibition and facilitation from 84 controls were collected at 3 visits over 24 months at 4 Track-On HD study sites. Reliability was assessed using intra-class correlation coefficients for absolute agreement, and the effects of reliability on statistical power are demonstrated for different sample sizes and study designs. Measures quantifying latencies, thresholds, and evoked responses at high stimulator intensities had the highest reliability, and required the smallest sample sizes to adequately power a study. Very few between-site differences were detected. Reliability and susceptibility to between-site differences should be evaluated for electrophysiological measures before including them in study designs. Levels of reliability vary substantially across electrophysiological measures, though there are few between-site differences. To address this, reliability should be used in conjunction with theoretical calculations to inform sample size and ensure studies are adequately powered to detect true change in measures of interest. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical core design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oelkers, E.; Heller, A.S.; Farnsworth, D.A.; Kearfott, K.J.

1978-01-01

The report describes the statistical analysis of DNBR thermal-hydraulic margin of a 3800 MWt, 205-FA core under design overpower conditions. The analysis used LYNX-generated data at predetermined values of the input variables whose uncertainties were to be statistically combined. LYNX data were used to construct an efficient response surface model in the region of interest; the statistical analysis was accomplished through the evaluation of core reliability; utilizing propagation of the uncertainty distributions of the inputs. The response surface model was implemented in both the analytical error propagation and Monte Carlo Techniques. The basic structural units relating to the acceptance criteria are fuel pins. Therefore, the statistical population of pins with minimum DNBR values smaller than specified values is determined. The specified values are designated relative to the most probable and maximum design DNBR values on the power limiting pin used in present design analysis, so that gains over the present design criteria could be assessed for specified probabilistic acceptance criteria. The results are equivalent to gains ranging from 1.2 to 4.8 percent of rated power dependent on the acceptance criterion. The corresponding acceptance criteria range from 95 percent confidence that no pin will be in DNB to 99.9 percent of the pins, which are expected to avoid DNB

Reliability of redundant ductile structures with uncertain system ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

tance, applied loads and geometric parameters, and in some cases in the .... Statistical dependence among (i) girder strengths ... element reliability solution techniques; such formulation unfortunately remains ..... The spread of plasticity through a member after failure of a section .... The following form of the bivariate Gumbel.

Some aspects of statistic evaluation of fast reactor fuel element reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proshkin, A.A.; Likhachev, Yu.I.; Tuzov, A.N.; Zabud'ko, L.M.

1980-01-01

Certain aspects of application of statistical methods in forecasting operating ability of fuel elements of fast reactors with liquid-metal-heat-carriers are considered. Results of statistical analysis of fuel element operating ability with oxide fuel (U, Pu)O 2 under stationary regime of fast power reactor capacity are given. The analysis carried out permits to single out the main parameters, considerably affecting the calculated determination of fuel element operating ability. It is shown that parameters which introduce the greatest uncertainty are: steel creep rate - up to 30%; steel swelling - up to 20%; fuel ceep rate - up to 30%, fuel swelling - up to 20%, the coating material corrosion - up to 15%; contact conductivity of the fuel-coating gap - up to 10%. Contribution of these parameters in every given case is different depending on the construction, operation conditions and fuel element cross section considered. Contribution of the coating temperature uncertainty to the total dispersion does not exceed several per cent. It is shown that for the given reactor operation conditions the number of fuel elements depressurized increases with the burn out almost exponentially, starting from the burn out higher than 7% of heavy atoms

Comparing two reliability upper bounds for multistate systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng, Fan C.

2005-01-01

The path-cut reliability bound due to Esary and Proschan [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 65 (1970) 329] and the minimax reliability bound due to Barlow and Proschan [Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing: Probability Models, 1981] for binary systems have been generalized to multistate systems by Block and Savits [J. Appl. Probab. 19 (1982) 391]. Some comparison results concerning the two multistate lower bounds for various types of multistate systems are given by Meng [Probab. Eng. Inform. Sci. 16 (2002) 485]. In this note we compare the two multistate upper bounds and present results which generalize some previous ones obtained by Maymin [J. Stat. Plan. Inference 16 (1987) 337] for binary systems. Examples are given to illustrate our results

Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yimin

2018-03-01

We studied the reliability of machine components with parameters that follow an arbitrary statistical distribution using the principle of maximum entropy (PME). We used PME to select the statistical distribution that best fits the available information. We also established a probability density function (PDF) and a failure probability model for the parameters of mechanical components using the concept of entropy and the PME. We obtained the first four moments of the state function for reliability analysis and design. Furthermore, we attained an estimate of the PDF with the fewest human bias factors using the PME. This function was used to calculate the reliability of the machine components, including a connecting rod, a vehicle half-shaft, a front axle, a rear axle housing, and a leaf spring, which have parameters that typically follow a non-normal distribution. Simulations were conducted for comparison. This study provides a design methodology for the reliability of mechanical components for practical engineering projects.

Statistical prediction of parametric roll using FORM

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Choi, Ju-hyuck; Nielsen, Ulrik Dam

2017-01-01

Previous research has shown that the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) can be an efficient method for estimation of outcrossing rates and extreme value statistics for stationary stochastic processes. This is so also for bifurcation type of processes like parametric roll of ships. The present...

Long term test-retest reliability of Oswestry Disability Index in male office workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Irmak, Rafet; Baltaci, Gul; Ergun, Nevin

2015-01-01

The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is one of the most common condition specific outcome measures used in the management of spinal disorders. But there is insufficient study on healthy populations and long term test-retest reliability. This is important because healthy populations are often used for control groups in low back pain interventions, and knowing the reliability of the controls affects the interpretation of the findings of these studies. The purpose of this study is to determine the long term test-retest reliability of ODI in office workers. Participants who have no chronic low back pain history were included in study. Subjects were assessed by the Turkish-ODI 2.0 (e-forms) on 1st, 2nd, 4th, 8th, 15th, 30th days to determine the stability of ODI scores over time. The study began with 58 (12 female, 46 male) participants. 36 (3 female, 33 male) participated for the full 30 days. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Friedman tests were used. Test-retest reliability was evaluated by using nonparametric statistics. All tests were done by using SPSS-11. There was no statistically significant difference among the median scores of each day. (χ= 6.482, p >  0.05). The difference between median score of the days with 1st day was neither statistically nor clinically significant. ODI has long term test re-test reliability in healthy subjects over a 1 month time interval.

Psychometrics Matter in Health Behavior: A Long-term Reliability Generalization Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pickett, Andrew C; Valdez, Danny; Barry, Adam E

2017-09-01

Despite numerous calls for increased understanding and reporting of reliability estimates, social science research, including the field of health behavior, has been slow to respond and adopt such practices. Therefore, we offer a brief overview of reliability and common reporting errors; we then perform analyses to examine and demonstrate the variability of reliability estimates by sample and over time. Using meta-analytic reliability generalization, we examined the variability of coefficient alpha scores for a well-designed, consistent, nationwide health study, covering a span of nearly 40 years. For each year and sample, reliability varied. Furthermore, reliability was predicted by a sample characteristic that differed among age groups within each administration. We demonstrated that reliability is influenced by the methods and individuals from which a given sample is drawn. Our work echoes previous calls that psychometric properties, particularly reliability of scores, are important and must be considered and reported before drawing statistical conclusions.

To the problem of reliability of high-voltage accelerators for industrial purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al'bertinskij, B.I.; Svin'in, M.P.; Tsepakin, S.G.

1979-01-01

Statistical data characterizing the reliability of ELECTRON and AVRORA-2 type accelerators are presented. Used as a reliability index was the mean time to failure of the main accelerator units. The analysis of accelerator failures allowed a number of conclusions to be drawn. The high failure rate level is connected with inadequate training of the servicing personnel and a natural period of equipment adjustment. The mathematical analysis of the failure rate showed that the main responsibility for insufficient high reliability rests with selenium diodes which are employed in the high voltage power supply. Substitution of selenium diodes by silicon ones increases time between failures. It is shown that accumulation and processing of operational statistical data will permit more accurate prediction of the reliability of produced high-voltage accelerators, make it possible to cope with the problems of planning optimal, in time, preventive inspections and repair, and to select optimal safety factors and test procedures n time, preventive inspections and repair, and to select optimal safety factors and test procedures n time, prevent

Reliability theory with applications to preventive maintenance

CERN Document Server

Gertsbakh, Ilya

2000-01-01

The material in this book was first presented as a one-semester course in Relia­ bility Theory and Preventive Maintenance for M.Sc. students of the Industrial Engineering Department of Ben Gurion University in the 1997/98 and 1998/99 academic years. Engineering students are mainly interested in the applied part of this theory. The value of preventive maintenance theory lies in the possibility of its imple­ mentation, which crucially depends on how we handle statistical reliability data. The very nature of the object of reliability theory - system lifetime - makes it extremely difficult to collect large amounts of data. The data available are usu­ ally incomplete, e.g. heavily censored. Thus, the desire to make the course material more applicable led me to include in the course topics such as mod­ eling system lifetime distributions (Chaps. 1,2) and the maximum likelihood techniques for lifetime data processing (Chap. 3). A course in the theory of statistics is aprerequisite for these lectures. Stan­ dard...

75 FR 54695 - Advisory Council on Transportation Statistics; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-08

.... 2) to advise the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on the quality, reliability, consistency... Strategic Plan and related BTS products; (4) Council Members review and discussion of statistical programs... E34-403, Washington, DC 20590, [email protected] or faxed to (202) 366-3640. BTS requests that...

Reliability estimation system: its application to the nuclear geophysical sampling of ore deposits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khaykovich, I.M.; Savosin, S.I.

1992-01-01

The reliability estimation system accepted in the Soviet Union for sampling data in nuclear geophysics is based on unique requirements in metrology and methodology. It involves estimating characteristic errors in calibration, as well as errors in measurement and interpretation. This paper describes the methods of estimating the levels of systematic and random errors at each stage of the problem. The data of nuclear geophysics sampling are considered to be reliable if there are no statistically significant, systematic differences between ore intervals determined by this method and by geological control, or by other methods of sampling; the reliability of the latter having been verified. The difference between the random errors is statistically insignificant. The system allows one to obtain information on the parameters of ore intervals with a guaranteed random error and without systematic errors. (Author)

Reliability technology and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.; Kaplan, S.

1976-01-01

This paper reviews some of the history and status of nuclear reliability and the evolution of this subject from art towards science. It shows that that probability theory is the appropriate and essential mathematical language of this subject. The authors emphasize that it is more useful to view probability not as a $prime$frequency$prime$, i.e., not as the result of a statistical experiment, but rather as a measure of state of confidence or a state of knowledge. They also show that the probabilistic, quantitative approach has a considerable history of application in the electric power industry in the area of power system planning. Finally, the authors show that the decision theory notion of utility provides a point of view from which risks, benefits, safety, and reliability can be viewed in a unified way thus facilitating understanding, comparison, and communication. 29 refs

Improvement of the reliability on nondestructive inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Sung Jin; Kim, Young H.; Lee, Hyang Beom; Shin, Young Kil; Jung, Hyun Jo; Park, Ik Keun; Park, Eun Soo

2002-03-01

Retaining reliabilities of nondestructive testing is essential for the life-time maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant. The nondestructive testing methods which are frequently used in the Nuclear Power Plant are eddy current testing for the inspection of steam generator tubes and ultrasonic testing for the inspection of weldments. In order to improve reliabilities of ultrasonic testing and eddy current testing, the subjects carried out in this study are as follows : development of BEM analysis technique for ECT of SG tube, development of neural network technique for the intelligent analysis of ECT flaw signals of SG tubes, development of RFECT technology for the inspection of SG tube, FEM analysis of ultrasonic scattering field, evaluation of statistical reliability of PD-RR test of ultrasonic testing and development of multi-Gaussian beam modeling technique to predict accurate signal of signal beam ultrasonic testing with the efficiency in calculation time

Improvement of the reliability on nondestructive inspection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Sung Jin; Kim, Young H. [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Hyang Beom [Soongsil Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Young Kil [Kunsan National Univ., Gunsan (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Hyun Jo [Wonkwang Univ., Iksan (Korea, Republic of); Park, Ik Keun; Park, Eun Soo [Seoul Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2002-03-15

Retaining reliabilities of nondestructive testing is essential for the life-time maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant. The nondestructive testing methods which are frequently used in the Nuclear Power Plant are eddy current testing for the inspection of steam generator tubes and ultrasonic testing for the inspection of weldments. In order to improve reliabilities of ultrasonic testing and eddy current testing, the subjects carried out in this study are as follows : development of BEM analysis technique for ECT of SG tube, development of neural network technique for the intelligent analysis of ECT flaw signals of SG tubes, development of RFECT technology for the inspection of SG tube, FEM analysis of ultrasonic scattering field, evaluation of statistical reliability of PD-RR test of ultrasonic testing and development of multi-Gaussian beam modeling technique to predict accurate signal of signal beam ultrasonic testing with the efficiency in calculation time.

Inter-rater reliability of the Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke patients (SMES).

Science.gov (United States)

Halsaa, K E; Sødring, K M; Bjelland, E; Finsrud, K; Bautz-Holter, E

1999-12-01

The Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke patients is an instrument for physiotherapists to evaluate motor function and activities in stroke patients. The rating reflects quality as well as quantity of the patient's unassisted performance within three domains: leg, arm and gross function. The inter-rater reliability of the method was studied in a sample of 30 patients admitted to a stroke rehabilitation unit. Three therapists were involved in the study; two therapists assessed the same patient on two consecutive days in a balanced design. Cohen's weighted kappa and McNemar's test of symmetry were used as measures of item reliability, and the intraclass correlation coefficient was used to express the reliability of the sumscores. For 24 out of 32 items the weighted kappa statistic was excellent (0.75-0.98), while 7 items had a kappa statistic within the range 0.53-0.74 (fair to good). The reliability of one item was poor (0.13). The intraclass correlation coefficient for the three sumscores was 0.97, 0.91 and 0.97. We conclude that the Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke patients is a reliable measure of motor function in stroke patients undergoing rehabilitation.

The Americleft Speech Project: A Training and Reliability Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, Kathy L; Baylis, Adriane; Trost-Cardamone, Judith; Cordero, Kelly Nett; Dixon, Angela; Dobbelsteyn, Cindy; Thurmes, Anna; Wilson, Kristina; Harding-Bell, Anne; Sweeney, Triona; Stoddard, Gregory; Sell, Debbie

2016-01-01

To describe the results of two reliability studies and to assess the effect of training on interrater reliability scores. The first study (1) examined interrater and intrarater reliability scores (weighted and unweighted kappas) and (2) compared interrater reliability scores before and after training on the use of the Cleft Audit Protocol for Speech-Augmented (CAPS-A) with British English-speaking children. The second study examined interrater and intrarater reliability on a modified version of the CAPS-A (CAPS-A Americleft Modification) with American and Canadian English-speaking children. Finally, comparisons were made between the interrater and intrarater reliability scores obtained for Study 1 and Study 2. The participants were speech-language pathologists from the Americleft Speech Project. In Study 1, interrater reliability scores improved for 6 of the 13 parameters following training on the CAPS-A protocol. Comparison of the reliability results for the two studies indicated lower scores for Study 2 compared with Study 1. However, this appeared to be an artifact of the kappa statistic that occurred due to insufficient variability in the reliability samples for Study 2. When percent agreement scores were also calculated, the ratings appeared similar across Study 1 and Study 2. The findings of this study suggested that improvements in interrater reliability could be obtained following a program of systematic training. However, improvements were not uniform across all parameters. Acceptable levels of reliability were achieved for those parameters most important for evaluation of velopharyngeal function.

Statistical methods for decision making in mine action

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Jan

The design and evaluation of mine clearance equipment – the problem of reliability * Detection probability – tossing a coin * Requirements in mine action * Detection probability and confidence in MA * Using statistics in area reduction Improving performance by information fusion and combination...

Method of core thermodynamic reliability determination in pressurized water reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ackermann, G.; Horche, W. (Ingenieurhochschule Zittau (German Democratic Republic). Sektion Kraftwerksanlagenbau und Energieumwandlung)

1983-01-01

A statistical model appropriate to determine the thermodynamic reliability and the power-limiting parameter of PWR cores is described for cases of accidental transients. The model is compared with the hot channel model hitherto applied.

Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

2009-01-01

Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

The reliability paradox: Why robust cognitive tasks do not produce reliable individual differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedge, Craig; Powell, Georgina; Sumner, Petroc

2017-07-19

Individual differences in cognitive paradigms are increasingly employed to relate cognition to brain structure, chemistry, and function. However, such efforts are often unfruitful, even with the most well established tasks. Here we offer an explanation for failures in the application of robust cognitive paradigms to the study of individual differences. Experimental effects become well established - and thus those tasks become popular - when between-subject variability is low. However, low between-subject variability causes low reliability for individual differences, destroying replicable correlations with other factors and potentially undermining published conclusions drawn from correlational relationships. Though these statistical issues have a long history in psychology, they are widely overlooked in cognitive psychology and neuroscience today. In three studies, we assessed test-retest reliability of seven classic tasks: Eriksen Flanker, Stroop, stop-signal, go/no-go, Posner cueing, Navon, and Spatial-Numerical Association of Response Code (SNARC). Reliabilities ranged from 0 to .82, being surprisingly low for most tasks given their common use. As we predicted, this emerged from low variance between individuals rather than high measurement variance. In other words, the very reason such tasks produce robust and easily replicable experimental effects - low between-participant variability - makes their use as correlational tools problematic. We demonstrate that taking such reliability estimates into account has the potential to qualitatively change theoretical conclusions. The implications of our findings are that well-established approaches in experimental psychology and neuropsychology may not directly translate to the study of individual differences in brain structure, chemistry, and function, and alternative metrics may be required.

Method of core thermodynamic reliability determination in pressurized water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ackermann, G.; Horche, W.

1983-01-01

A statistical model appropriate to determine the thermodynamic reliability and the power-limiting parameter of PWR cores is described for cases of accidental transients. The model is compared with the hot channel model hitherto applied. (author)

Estimation of some stochastic models used in reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huovinen, T.

1989-04-01

The work aims to study the estimation of some stochastic models used in reliability engineering. In reliability engineering continuous probability distributions have been used as models for the lifetime of technical components. We consider here the following distributions: exponential, 2-mixture exponential, conditional exponential, Weibull, lognormal and gamma. Maximum likelihood method is used to estimate distributions from observed data which may be either complete or censored. We consider models based on homogeneous Poisson processes such as gamma-poisson and lognormal-poisson models for analysis of failure intensity. We study also a beta-binomial model for analysis of failure probability. The estimators of the parameters for three models are estimated by the matching moments method and in the case of gamma-poisson and beta-binomial models also by maximum likelihood method. A great deal of mathematical or statistical problems that arise in reliability engineering can be solved by utilizing point processes. Here we consider the statistical analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes to describe the failing phenomena of a set of components with a Weibull intensity function. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the Weibull model. A common cause failure can seriously reduce the reliability of a system. We consider a binomial failure rate (BFR) model as an application of the marked point processes for modelling common cause failure in a system. The parameters of the binomial failure rate model are estimated with the maximum likelihood method

Discomfort Intolerance Scale: A Study of Reliability and Validity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kadir ÖZDEL

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: Discomfort Intolerance Scale was developed by Norman B. Schmidt et al. to assess the individual differences of capacity to withstand physical perturbations or uncomfortable bodily states (2006. The aim of this study is to investigate the validity and reliability of Discomfort Intolerance Scale-Turkish Version (RDÖ. Method: From two different universities, total of 225 students (male=167, female=58 were participated in this study. In order to determine the criterion validity, Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI were used. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis after the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO and Barlett test had been performed. To assess the test-retest reliability the scale was re-applied to 54 participants 6 weeks later. Results: To assess construct validity of DIS, factor analyses were performed using varimax principal components analysis with varimax rotation. The factor analysis resulted in two factors named “discomfort (in tolerance” and “discomfort avoidance”. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the entire scale, discomfort-(intolerance subscale, discomfortavoidance subscale were, .592, .670, .600 respectively. Correlations between two factors of DIS, discomfort intolerance and discomfort avoidance, and Trait Anxiety Inventory of STAI (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory were statistically significant at the level of 0.05. Test-retest reliability was statistically significant at the level of 0.01. Conclusion: Analysis demonstrated that DIS had a satisfactory level of reliability and validity in Turkish university students.

Reliability Prediction Of System And Component Of Process System Of RSG-GAS Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sitorus Pane, Jupiter

2001-01-01

The older the reactor the higher the probability of the system and components suffer from loss of function or degradation. This phenomenon occurred because of wear, corrosion, and fatigue. Study on component reliability was generally performed deterministically and statistically. This paper would describe an analysis of using statistical method, i.e. regression Cox, in order to predict the reliability of the components and their environmental influence's factors. The result showed that the dynamics, non safety related, and mechanic components have higher risk of failure, whereas static, safety related, and electric have lower risk of failures. The relative risk value for variable of components dynamics, quality, dummy 1 and dummy 2 are of 1.54, 1.59, 1.50, and 0.83 compare to other components type with each variable. Component with the higher risk have lower reliability than lower one

Statistical Analysis of Data for Timber Strengths

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2003-01-01

Statistical analyses are performed for material strength parameters from a large number of specimens of structural timber. Non-parametric statistical analysis and fits have been investigated for the following distribution types: Normal, Lognormal, 2 parameter Weibull and 3-parameter Weibull...... fits to the data available, especially if tail fits are used whereas the Log Normal distribution generally gives a poor fit and larger coefficients of variation, especially if tail fits are used. The implications on the reliability level of typical structural elements and on partial safety factors...... for timber are investigated....

Statistical test data selection for reliability evalution of process computer software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkmann, K.P.; Hoermann, H.; Ehrenberger, W.

1976-01-01

The paper presents a concept for converting knowledge about the characteristics of process states into practicable procedures for the statistical selection of test cases in testing process computer software. Process states are defined as vectors whose components consist of values of input variables lying in discrete positions or within given limits. Two approaches for test data selection, based on knowledge about cases of demand, are outlined referring to a purely probabilistic method and to the mathematics of stratified sampling. (orig.) [de

Automation of testing the metrological reliability of nondestructive control systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhukov, Yu.A.; Isakov, V.B.; Karlov, Yu.K.; Kovalevskij, Yu.A.

1987-01-01

Opportunities of microcomputers are used to solve the problem of testing control-measuring systems. Besides the main program the program of data processing when characterizing the nondestructive control systems is written in the microcomputer. The program includes two modules. The first module contains tests-programs, by which accuracy of functional elements of the microcomputer and interface elements with issuing a message to the operator on readiness of the elements for operation and failure of a certain element are determined. The second module includes: calculational programs when determining metrological reliability of measuring channel reliability, a calculational subprogram for random statistical measuring error, time instability and ''dead time''. Automation of testing metrological reliability of the nondestructive control systems increases reliability of determining metrological parameters and reduces time of system testing

12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications

CERN Document Server

Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Szajowski, Krzysztof

2015-01-01

This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.

Statistical inferences for bearings life using sudden death test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morariu Cristin-Olimpiu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose a calculus method for reliability indicators estimation and a complete statistical inferences for three parameters Weibull distribution of bearings life. Using experimental values regarding the durability of bearings tested on stands by the sudden death tests involves a series of particularities of the estimation using maximum likelihood method and statistical inference accomplishment. The paper detailing these features and also provides an example calculation.

Development of the software for the component reliability database system of Korean nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Sang Hoon; Kim, Seung Hwan; Choi, Sun Young [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

2002-03-01

A study was performed to develop the system for the component reliability database which consists of database system to store the reliability data and softwares to analyze the reliability data.This system is a part of KIND (Korea Information System for Nuclear Reliability Database).The MS-SQL database is used to stores the component population data, component maintenance history, and the results of reliability analysis. Two softwares were developed for the component reliability system. One is the KIND-InfoView for the data storing, retrieving and searching. The other is the KIND-CompRel for the statistical analysis of component reliability. 4 refs., 13 figs., 7 tabs. (Author)

A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ESTIMATION METHOD TO NUCLEAR SAFETY SOFTWARE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEE-YONG PARK

2014-02-01

Full Text Available A method for estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed in this paper. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM, where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Two types of modeling schemes based on a particular underlying method are proposed in order to more precisely estimate and predict the number of software defects based on very rare software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating software test cases as a covariate into the model. It was identified that these models are capable of reasonably estimating the remaining number of software defects which directly affects the reactor trip functions. The software reliability might be estimated from these modeling equations, and one approach of obtaining software reliability value is proposed in this paper.

Reliability Based Management of Marine Fouling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, Michael Havbro; Hansen, Peter Friis

1999-01-01

The present paper describes the results of a recent study on the application of methods from structural reliability to optimise management of marine fouling on jacket type structures.In particular the study addresses effects on the structural response by assessment and quantification of uncertain......The present paper describes the results of a recent study on the application of methods from structural reliability to optimise management of marine fouling on jacket type structures.In particular the study addresses effects on the structural response by assessment and quantification...... of uncertainties of a set of parameters. These are the seasonal variation of marine fouling parameters, the wave loading (taking into account the seasonal variation in sea-state statistics), and the effects of spatial variations and seasonal effects of marine fouling parameters. Comparison of design values...

A methodology and success/failure criteria for determining emergency diesel generator reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wyckoff, H.L.

1986-01-01

In the U.S., comprehensive records of nationwide emergency diesel generator (EDG) reliability at nuclear power plants have not been consistently collected. Those surveys that have been undertaken have not always been complete and accurate. Moreover, they have been based On an extremely conservative methodology and success/failure criteria that are specified in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reg. Guide 1.108. This Reg. Guide was one of the NRCs earlier efforts and does not yield the caliber of statistically defensible reliability values that are now needed. On behalf of the U.S. utilities, EPRI is taking the lead in organizing, investigating, and compiling a realistic database of EDG operating success/failure experience for the years 1983, 1984 and 1985. These data will be analyzed to provide an overall picture of EDG reliability. This paper describes the statistical methodology and start and run success/- failure criteria that EPRI is using. The survey is scheduled to be completed in March 1986. (author)

A methodology and success/failure criteria for determining emergency diesel generator reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wyckoff, H. L. [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California (United States)

1986-02-15

In the U.S., comprehensive records of nationwide emergency diesel generator (EDG) reliability at nuclear power plants have not been consistently collected. Those surveys that have been undertaken have not always been complete and accurate. Moreover, they have been based On an extremely conservative methodology and success/failure criteria that are specified in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reg. Guide 1.108. This Reg. Guide was one of the NRCs earlier efforts and does not yield the caliber of statistically defensible reliability values that are now needed. On behalf of the U.S. utilities, EPRI is taking the lead in organizing, investigating, and compiling a realistic database of EDG operating success/failure experience for the years 1983, 1984 and 1985. These data will be analyzed to provide an overall picture of EDG reliability. This paper describes the statistical methodology and start and run success/- failure criteria that EPRI is using. The survey is scheduled to be completed in March 1986. (author)

Reliability analysis of pipelines and pressure vessels at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemin, A.I.; Shiverskij, E.A.

1979-01-01

Reliability analysis of pipelines and pressure vessels at NPP is given. The main causes and failure mechanisms of these elements, the ways of reliability improvement and preventing of great damages are considered. The reliability estimation methods both according to the statistical operation data and under the conditions of absence of failure statistics are given. The main characteristics and actual reliability factors of pipelines and pressure vessels of three home NPP: the first in the world NPP, VK-50 and Beloyarsk NPP, are presented. From the start-up there were practically no failures of the pipelines and pressure vessels at the VK-50 pilot installation. The analysis of the operation experience of the first and second blocks of the Beloyarsk NPP, as well as the first in the world NPP, shows that the most part of failures of the pipelines and pressure vessels of these energy blocks with the channel reactors is connected with the coolant leakage at minority pipelines of a small diameter. The most part of failures at individual pipelines of the first and second blocks of the Beloyarsk NPP are connected with the leakages of stuffing boxes of switching off devices. It is noted that serious failures of large pipelines and pressure vessels at all home NPP under operation have not been observed

Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine: An overview

Science.gov (United States)

Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon; Prasad, Ramjee

2013-01-01

Recently, a need to develop supportive new scientific evidence for contemporary Ayurveda has emerged. One of the research objectives is an assessment of the reliability of diagnoses and treatment. Reliability is a quantitative measure of consistency. It is a crucial issue in classification (such as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine diagnoses is in the formative stage. However, reliability studies in Ayurveda are in the preliminary stage. In this paper, examples are provided to illustrate relevant concepts of reliability studies of diagnostic methods and their implication in practice, education, and training. An introduction to reliability estimates and different study designs and statistical analysis is given for future studies in Ayurveda. PMID:23930037

Reliability of Computerized Neurocognitive Tests for Concussion Assessment: A Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Farnsworth, James L; Dargo, Lucas; Ragan, Brian G; Kang, Minsoo

2017-09-01

  Although widely used, computerized neurocognitive tests (CNTs) have been criticized because of low reliability and poor sensitivity. A systematic review was published summarizing the reliability of Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) scores; however, this was limited to a single CNT. Expansion of the previous review to include additional CNTs and a meta-analysis is needed. Therefore, our purpose was to analyze reliability data for CNTs using meta-analysis and examine moderating factors that may influence reliability.   A systematic literature search (key terms: reliability, computerized neurocognitive test, concussion) of electronic databases (MEDLINE, PubMed, Google Scholar, and SPORTDiscus) was conducted to identify relevant studies.   Studies were included if they met all of the following criteria: used a test-retest design, involved at least 1 CNT, provided sufficient statistical data to allow for effect-size calculation, and were published in English.   Two independent reviewers investigated each article to assess inclusion criteria. Eighteen studies involving 2674 participants were retained. Intraclass correlation coefficients were extracted to calculate effect sizes and determine overall reliability. The Fisher Z transformation adjusted for sampling error associated with averaging correlations. Moderator analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of the length of the test-retest interval, intraclass correlation coefficient model selection, participant demographics, and study design on reliability. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the Cochran Q statistic.   The proportion of acceptable outcomes was greatest for the Axon Sports CogState Test (75%) and lowest for the ImPACT (25%). Moderator analyses indicated that the type of intraclass correlation coefficient model used significantly influenced effect-size estimates, accounting for 17% of the variation in reliability.   The Axon Sports CogState Test, which

Assessing attitudes towards statistics among medical students: psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dejana Stanisavljevic

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Medical statistics has become important and relevant for future doctors, enabling them to practice evidence based medicine. Recent studies report that students' attitudes towards statistics play an important role in their statistics achievements. The aim of the study was to test the psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS in order to acquire a valid instrument to measure attitudes inside the Serbian educational context. METHODS: The validation study was performed on a cohort of 417 medical students who were enrolled in an obligatory introductory statistics course. The SATS adaptation was based on an internationally accepted methodology for translation and cultural adaptation. Psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the SATS were analyzed through the examination of factorial structure and internal consistency. RESULTS: Most medical students held positive attitudes towards statistics. The average total SATS score was above neutral (4.3±0.8, and varied from 1.9 to 6.2. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the questionnaire (Affect, Cognitive Competence, Value, Difficulty, Interest and Effort. Values for fit indices TLI (0.940 and CFI (0.961 were above the cut-off of ≥0.90. The RMSEA value of 0.064 (0.051-0.078 was below the suggested value of ≤0.08. Cronbach's alpha of the entire scale was 0.90, indicating scale reliability. In a multivariate regression model, self-rating of ability in mathematics and current grade point average were significantly associated with the total SATS score after adjusting for age and gender. CONCLUSION: Present study provided the evidence for the appropriate metric properties of the Serbian version of SATS. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the scale. The SATS might be reliable and a valid instrument for identifying medical students' attitudes towards statistics in the

Assessing attitudes towards statistics among medical students: psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS).

Science.gov (United States)

Stanisavljevic, Dejana; Trajkovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Bukumiric, Zoran; Cirkovic, Andja; Milic, Natasa

2014-01-01

Medical statistics has become important and relevant for future doctors, enabling them to practice evidence based medicine. Recent studies report that students' attitudes towards statistics play an important role in their statistics achievements. The aim of the study was to test the psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS) in order to acquire a valid instrument to measure attitudes inside the Serbian educational context. The validation study was performed on a cohort of 417 medical students who were enrolled in an obligatory introductory statistics course. The SATS adaptation was based on an internationally accepted methodology for translation and cultural adaptation. Psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the SATS were analyzed through the examination of factorial structure and internal consistency. Most medical students held positive attitudes towards statistics. The average total SATS score was above neutral (4.3±0.8), and varied from 1.9 to 6.2. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the questionnaire (Affect, Cognitive Competence, Value, Difficulty, Interest and Effort). Values for fit indices TLI (0.940) and CFI (0.961) were above the cut-off of ≥0.90. The RMSEA value of 0.064 (0.051-0.078) was below the suggested value of ≤0.08. Cronbach's alpha of the entire scale was 0.90, indicating scale reliability. In a multivariate regression model, self-rating of ability in mathematics and current grade point average were significantly associated with the total SATS score after adjusting for age and gender. Present study provided the evidence for the appropriate metric properties of the Serbian version of SATS. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the scale. The SATS might be reliable and a valid instrument for identifying medical students' attitudes towards statistics in the Serbian educational context.

Kuhn-Tucker optimization based reliability analysis for probabilistic finite elements

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Besterfield, G.; Lawrence, M.; Belytschko, T.

1988-01-01

The fusion of probability finite element method (PFEM) and reliability analysis for fracture mechanics is considered. Reliability analysis with specific application to fracture mechanics is presented, and computational procedures are discussed. Explicit expressions for the optimization procedure with regard to fracture mechanics are given. The results show the PFEM is a very powerful tool in determining the second-moment statistics. The method can determine the probability of failure or fracture subject to randomness in load, material properties and crack length, orientation, and location.

Theoretical, analytical, and statistical interpretation of environmental data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, S.M.

1974-01-01

The reliability of data from radiochemical analyses of environmental samples cannot be determined from nuclear counting statistics alone. The rigorous application of the principles of propagation of errors, an understanding of the physics and chemistry of the species of interest in the environment, and the application of information from research on the analytical procedure are all necessary for a valid estimation of the errors associated with analytical results. The specific case of the determination of plutonium in soil is considered in terms of analytical problems and data reliability. (U.S.)

DATMAN: A reliability data analysis program using Bayesian updating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, M.; Feltus, M.A.

1996-01-01

Preventive maintenance (PM) techniques focus on the prevention of failures, in particular, system components that are important to plant functions. Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) improves on the PM techniques by introducing a set of guidelines by which to evaluate the system functions. It also minimizes intrusive maintenance, labor, and equipment downtime without sacrificing system performance when its function is essential for plant safety. Both the PM and RCM approaches require that system reliability data be updated as more component failures and operation time are acquired. Systems reliability and the likelihood of component failures can be calculated by Bayesian statistical methods, which can update these data. The DATMAN computer code has been developed at Penn State to simplify the Bayesian analysis by performing tedious calculations needed for RCM reliability analysis. DATMAN reads data for updating, fits a distribution that best fits the data, and calculates component reliability. DATMAN provides a user-friendly interface menu that allows the user to choose from several common prior and posterior distributions, insert new failure data, and visually select the distribution that matches the data most accurately

Robust Control Methods for On-Line Statistical Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Capobianco Enrico

2001-01-01

Full Text Available The issue of controlling that data processing in an experiment results not affected by the presence of outliers is relevant for statistical control and learning studies. Learning schemes should thus be tested for their capacity of handling outliers in the observed training set so to achieve reliable estimates with respect to the crucial bias and variance aspects. We describe possible ways of endowing neural networks with statistically robust properties by defining feasible error criteria. It is convenient to cast neural nets in state space representations and apply both Kalman filter and stochastic approximation procedures in order to suggest statistically robustified solutions for on-line learning.

Modeling, implementation, and validation of arterial travel time reliability : [summary].

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-01

Travel time reliability (TTR) has been proposed as : a better measure of a facilitys performance than : a statistical measure like peak hour demand. TTR : is based on more information about average traffic : flows and longer time periods, thus inc...

Network-based statistical comparison of citation topology of bibliographic databases

Science.gov (United States)

Šubelj, Lovro; Fiala, Dalibor; Bajec, Marko

2014-01-01

Modern bibliographic databases provide the basis for scientific research and its evaluation. While their content and structure differ substantially, there exist only informal notions on their reliability. Here we compare the topological consistency of citation networks extracted from six popular bibliographic databases including Web of Science, CiteSeer and arXiv.org. The networks are assessed through a rich set of local and global graph statistics. We first reveal statistically significant inconsistencies between some of the databases with respect to individual statistics. For example, the introduced field bow-tie decomposition of DBLP Computer Science Bibliography substantially differs from the rest due to the coverage of the database, while the citation information within arXiv.org is the most exhaustive. Finally, we compare the databases over multiple graph statistics using the critical difference diagram. The citation topology of DBLP Computer Science Bibliography is the least consistent with the rest, while, not surprisingly, Web of Science is significantly more reliable from the perspective of consistency. This work can serve either as a reference for scholars in bibliometrics and scientometrics or a scientific evaluation guideline for governments and research agencies. PMID:25263231

Software reliability growth model for safety systems of nuclear reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thirugnana Murthy, D.; Murali, N.; Sridevi, T.; Satya Murty, S.A.V.; Velusamy, K.

2014-01-01

The demand for complex software systems has increased more rapidly than the ability to design, implement, test, and maintain them, and the reliability of software systems has become a major concern for our, modern society.Software failures have impaired several high visibility programs in space, telecommunications, defense and health industries. Besides the costs involved, it setback the projects. The ways of quantifying it and using it for improvement and control of the software development and maintenance process. This paper discusses need for systematic approaches for measuring and assuring software reliability which is a major share of project development resources. It covers the reliability models with the concern on 'Reliability Growth'. It includes data collection on reliability, statistical estimation and prediction, metrics and attributes of product architecture, design, software development, and the operational environment. Besides its use for operational decisions like deployment, it includes guiding software architecture, development, testing and verification and validation. (author)

SpaSM: A MATLAB Toolbox for Sparse Statistical Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sjöstrand, Karl; Clemmensen, Line Harder; Larsen, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Applications in biotechnology such as gene expression analysis and image processing have led to a tremendous development of statistical methods with emphasis on reliable solutions to severely underdetermined systems. Furthermore, interpretations of such solutions are of importance, meaning...

The Attenuation of Correlation Coefficients: A Statistical Literacy Issue

Science.gov (United States)

Trafimow, David

2016-01-01

Much of the science reported in the media depends on correlation coefficients. But the size of correlation coefficients depends, in part, on the reliability with which the correlated variables are measured. Understanding this is a statistical literacy issue.

Component aging and reliability trends in Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jankala, K.E.; Vaurio, J.K.

1989-01-01

A plant-specific reliability data collection and analysis system has been developed at the Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant to perform tests for component aging and analysis of reliability trends. The system yields both mean values an uncertainty distribution information for reliability parameters to be used in the PSA project underway and in living-PSA applications. Several different trend models are included in the reliability analysis system. Simple analytical expressions have been derived from the parameters of these models, and their variances have been obtained using the information matrix. This paper is focused on the details of the learning/aging models and the estimation of their parameters and statistical accuracies. Applications to the historical data of the Loviisa plant are presented. The results indicate both up- and down-trends in failure rates as well as individuality between nominally identical components

Reliability of the Emergency Severity Index: Meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Mirhaghi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Although triage systems based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI have many advantages in terms of simplicity and clarity, previous research has questioned their reliability in practice. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the reliability of ESI triage scales. Methods: This metaanalysis was performed in March 2014. Electronic research databases were searched and articles conforming to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies were selected. Two researchers independently examined selected abstracts. Data were extracted in the following categories: version of scale (latest/older, participants (adult/paediatric, raters (nurse, physician or expert, method of reliability (intra/inter-rater, reliability statistics (weighted/unweighted kappa and the origin and publication year of the study. The effect size was obtained by the Z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models and a meta-regression was performed based on the method of moments estimator. Results: A total of 19 studies from six countries were included in the analysis. The pooled coefficient for the ESI triage scales was substantial at 0.791 (95% confidence interval: 0.787‒0.795. Agreement was higher with the latest and adult versions of the scale and among expert raters, compared to agreement with older and paediatric versions of the scales and with other groups of raters, respectively. Conclusion: ESI triage scales showed an acceptable level of overall reliability. However, ESI scales require more development in order to see full agreement from all rater groups. Further studies concentrating on other aspects of reliability assessment are needed.

Comparative analysis among deterministic and stochastic collision damage models for oil tanker and bulk carrier reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Campanile

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The incidence of collision damage models on oil tanker and bulk carrier reliability is investigated considering the IACS deterministic model against GOALDS/IMO database statistics for collision events, substantiating the probabilistic model. Statistical properties of hull girder residual strength are determined by Monte Carlo simulation, based on random generation of damage dimensions and a modified form of incremental-iterative method, to account for neutral axis rotation and equilibrium of horizontal bending moment, due to cross-section asymmetry after collision events. Reliability analysis is performed, to investigate the incidence of collision penetration depth and height statistical properties on hull girder sagging/hogging failure probabilities. Besides, the incidence of corrosion on hull girder residual strength and reliability is also discussed, focussing on gross, hull girder net and local net scantlings, respectively. The ISSC double hull oil tanker and single side bulk carrier, assumed as test cases in the ISSC 2012 report, are taken as reference ships.

Statistical analysis of questionnaires a unified approach based on R and Stata

CERN Document Server

Bartolucci, Francesco; Gnaldi, Michela

2015-01-01

Statistical Analysis of Questionnaires: A Unified Approach Based on R and Stata presents special statistical methods for analyzing data collected by questionnaires. The book takes an applied approach to testing and measurement tasks, mirroring the growing use of statistical methods and software in education, psychology, sociology, and other fields. It is suitable for graduate students in applied statistics and psychometrics and practitioners in education, health, and marketing.The book covers the foundations of classical test theory (CTT), test reliability, va

Reliability-based design and planning of inspection and monitoring of offshore wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dominguez, Sergio Marquez

When the wind is blowing fiercely, wind turbines must resist. Wind turbines have to withstand the rough environmental conditions in the most reliable manner and start to produce renewable energy when the wind becomes friendly again. Never give up ‘wind turbine’ face the winds and be proud of cont...... of probability and statistics for application in structural reliability-based risk inspections....

"A Comparison of Consensus, Consistency, and Measurement Approaches to Estimating Interrater Reliability"

OpenAIRE

Steven E. Stemler

2004-01-01

This article argues that the general practice of describing interrater reliability as a single, unified concept is..at best imprecise, and at worst potentially misleading. Rather than representing a single concept, different..statistical methods for computing interrater reliability can be more accurately classified into one of three..categories based upon the underlying goals of analysis. The three general categories introduced and..described in this paper are: 1) consensus estimates, 2) cons...

Reliability analysis of reactor protection systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alsan, S.

1976-07-01

A theoretical mathematical study of reliability is presented and the concepts subsequently defined applied to the study of nuclear reactor safety systems. The theory is applied to investigations of the operational reliability of the Siloe reactor from the point of view of rod drop. A statistical study conducted between 1964 and 1971 demonstrated that most rod drop incidents arose from circumstances associated with experimental equipment (new set-ups). The reliability of the most suitable safety system for some recently developed experimental equipment is discussed. Calculations indicate that if all experimental equipment were equipped with these new systems, only 1.75 rod drop accidents would be expected to occur per year on average. It is suggested that all experimental equipment should be equipped with these new safety systems and tested every 21 days. The reliability of the new safety system currently being studied for the Siloe reactor was also investigated. The following results were obtained: definite failures must be detected immediately as a result of the disturbances produced; the repair time must not exceed a few hours; the equipment must be tested every week. Under such conditions, the rate of accidental rod drops is about 0.013 on average per year. The level of nondefinite failures is less than 10 -6 per hour and the level of nonprotection 1 hour per year. (author)

Reliable fault detection and diagnosis of photovoltaic systems based on statistical monitoring approaches

KAUST Repository

Harrou, Fouzi; Sun, Ying; Taghezouit, Bilal; Saidi, Ahmed; Hamlati, Mohamed-Elkarim

2017-01-01

This study reports the development of an innovative fault detection and diagnosis scheme to monitor the direct current (DC) side of photovoltaic (PV) systems. Towards this end, we propose a statistical approach that exploits the advantages of one

Systems reliability/structural reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, A.E.

1980-01-01

The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)

Determining the optimum length of a bridge opening with a specified reliability level of water runoff

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evdokimov Sergey

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Current trends in construction are aimed at providing reliability and safety of engineering facilities. According to the latest government regulations for construction, the scientific approach to engineering research, design, construction and operation of construction projects is a key priority. The reliability of a road depends on a great number of factors and characteristics of their statistical compounds (sequential and parallel. A part of a road with such man-made structures as a bridge or a pipe is considered as a system with a sequential element connection. The overall reliability is the multiplication of the reliability of these elements. The parameters of engineering structures defined by analytical dependences are highly volatile because of the inaccuracy of the defining factors. However each physical parameter is statistically unstable that is evaluated by variable coefficient of their values. It causes the fluctuation in the parameters of engineering structures. Their study may result in the changes in general and particular design rules in order to increase the reliability. The paper gives the grounds for these changes by the example of a bridge. It allows calculating its optimum length with a specified reliability level of water runoff under the bridge.

Reliability Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Yong

1992-07-01

This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

Analysis and Evaluation of Statistical Models for Integrated Circuits Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sáenz-Noval J.J.

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Statistical models for integrated circuits (IC allow us to estimate the percentage of acceptable devices in the batch before fabrication. Actually, Pelgrom is the statistical model most accepted in the industry; however it was derived from a micrometer technology, which does not guarantee reliability in nanometric manufacturing processes. This work considers three of the most relevant statistical models in the industry and evaluates their limitations and advantages in analog design, so that the designer has a better criterion to make a choice. Moreover, it shows how several statistical models can be used for each one of the stages and design purposes.

The reliability of the Glasgow Coma Scale: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Reith, Florence C M; Van den Brande, Ruben; Synnot, Anneliese; Gruen, Russell; Maas, Andrew I R

2016-01-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) provides a structured method for assessment of the level of consciousness. Its derived sum score is applied in research and adopted in intensive care unit scoring systems. Controversy exists on the reliability of the GCS. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize evidence on the reliability of the GCS. A literature search was undertaken in MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL. Observational studies that assessed the reliability of the GCS, expressed by a statistical measure, were included. Methodological quality was evaluated with the consensus-based standards for the selection of health measurement instruments checklist and its influence on results considered. Reliability estimates were synthesized narratively. We identified 52 relevant studies that showed significant heterogeneity in the type of reliability estimates used, patients studied, setting and characteristics of observers. Methodological quality was good (n = 7), fair (n = 18) or poor (n = 27). In good quality studies, kappa values were ≥0.6 in 85%, and all intraclass correlation coefficients indicated excellent reliability. Poor quality studies showed lower reliability estimates. Reliability for the GCS components was higher than for the sum score. Factors that may influence reliability include education and training, the level of consciousness and type of stimuli used. Only 13% of studies were of good quality and inconsistency in reported reliability estimates was found. Although the reliability was adequate in good quality studies, further improvement is desirable. From a methodological perspective, the quality of reliability studies needs to be improved. From a clinical perspective, a renewed focus on training/education and standardization of assessment is required.

Principles of Statistics: What the Sports Medicine Professional Needs to Know.

Science.gov (United States)

Riemann, Bryan L; Lininger, Monica R

2018-07-01

Understanding the results and statistics reported in original research remains a large challenge for many sports medicine practitioners and, in turn, may be among one of the biggest barriers to integrating research into sports medicine practice. The purpose of this article is to provide minimal essentials a sports medicine practitioner needs to know about interpreting statistics and research results to facilitate the incorporation of the latest evidence into practice. Topics covered include the difference between statistical significance and clinical meaningfulness; effect sizes and confidence intervals; reliability statistics, including the minimal detectable difference and minimal important difference; and statistical power. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

2012-01-15

Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

A new approach for interexaminer reliability data analysis on dental caries calibration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andréa Videira Assaf

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Objectives: a to evaluate the interexaminer reliability in caries detection considering different diagnostic thresholds and b to indicate, by using Kappa statistics, the best way of measuring interexaminer agreement during the calibration process in dental caries surveys. Methods: Eleven dentists participated in the initial training, which was divided into theoretical discussions and practical activities, and calibration exercises, performed at baseline, 3 and 6 months after the initial training. For the examinations of 6-7-year-old schoolchildren, the World Health Organization (WHO recommendations were followed and different diagnostic thresholds were used: WHO (decayed/missing/filled teeth - DMFT index and WHO + IL (initial lesion diagnostic thresholds. The interexaminer reliability was calculated by Kappa statistics, according to WHO and WHO+IL thresholds considering: a the entire dentition; b upper/lower jaws; c sextants; d each tooth individually. Results: Interexaminer reliability was high for both diagnostic thresholds; nevertheless, it decreased in all calibration sections when considering teeth individually. Conclusion: The interexaminer reliability was possible during the period of 6 months, under both caries diagnosis thresholds. However, great disagreement was observed for posterior teeth, especially using the WHO+IL criteria. Analysis considering dental elements individually was the best way of detecting interexaminer disagreement during the calibration sections.

A method of predicting the reliability of CDM coil insulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kytasty, A.; Ogle, C.; Arrendale, H.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a method of predicting the reliability of the Collider Dipole Magnet (CDM) coil insulation design. The method proposes a probabilistic treatment of electrical test data, stress analysis, material properties variability and loading uncertainties to give the reliability estimate. The approach taken to predict reliability of design related failure modes of the CDM is to form analytical models of the various possible failure modes and their related mechanisms or causes, and then statistically assess the contributions of the various contributing variables. The probability of the failure mode occurring is interpreted as the number of times one would expect certain extreme situations to combine and randomly occur. One of the more complex failure modes of the CDM will be used to illustrate this methodology

Reliability

OpenAIRE

Condon, David; Revelle, William

2017-01-01

Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

Reliability Analysis and Test Planning using CAPO-Test for Existing Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Engelund, S.; Faber, Michael Havbro

2000-01-01

Evaluation of the reliability of existing concrete structures often requires that the compressive strength of the concrete is estimated on the basis of tests performed with concrete samples from the structure considered. In this paper the CAPO-test method is considered. The different sources...... of uncertainty related to this method are described. It is shown how the uncertainty in the transformation from the CAPO-test results to estimates of the concrete strength can be modeled. Further, the statistical uncertainty is modeled using Bayesian statistics. Finally, it is shown how reliability-based optimal...... planning of CAPO-tests can be performed taking into account the expected costs due to the CAPO-tests and possible repair or failure of the structure considered. An illustrative example is presented where the CAPO-test is compared with conventional concrete cylinder compression tests performed on cores...

Practical applications of age-dependent reliability models and analysis of operational data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lannoy, A.; Nitoi, M.; Backstrom, O.; Burgazzi, L.; Couallier, V.; Nikulin, M.; Derode, A.; Rodionov, A.; Atwood, C.; Fradet, F.; Antonov, A.; Berezhnoy, A.; Choi, S.Y.; Starr, F.; Dawson, J.; Palmen, H.; Clerjaud, L

2005-07-01

The purpose of the workshop was to present the experience of practical application of time-dependent reliability models. The program of the workshop comprises the following sessions: -) aging management and aging PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), -) modeling, -) operation experience, and -) accelerating aging tests. In order to introduce time aging effect of particular component to the PSA model, it has been proposed to use the constant unavailability values on the short period of time (one year for example) calculated on the basis of age-dependent reliability models. As for modeling, it appears that the problem of too detailed statistical models for application is the lack of data for required parameters. As for operating experience, several methods of operating experience analysis have been presented (algorithms for reliability data elaboration and statistical identification of aging trend). As for accelerated aging tests, it is demonstrated that a combination of operating experience analysis with the results of accelerated aging tests of naturally aged equipment could provide a good basis for continuous operation of instrumentation and control systems.

Practical applications of age-dependent reliability models and analysis of operational data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lannoy, A.; Nitoi, M.; Backstrom, O.; Burgazzi, L.; Couallier, V.; Nikulin, M.; Derode, A.; Rodionov, A.; Atwood, C.; Fradet, F.; Antonov, A.; Berezhnoy, A.; Choi, S.Y.; Starr, F.; Dawson, J.; Palmen, H.; Clerjaud, L.

2005-01-01

The purpose of the workshop was to present the experience of practical application of time-dependent reliability models. The program of the workshop comprises the following sessions: -) aging management and aging PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), -) modeling, -) operation experience, and -) accelerating aging tests. In order to introduce time aging effect of particular component to the PSA model, it has been proposed to use the constant unavailability values on the short period of time (one year for example) calculated on the basis of age-dependent reliability models. As for modeling, it appears that the problem of too detailed statistical models for application is the lack of data for required parameters. As for operating experience, several methods of operating experience analysis have been presented (algorithms for reliability data elaboration and statistical identification of aging trend). As for accelerated aging tests, it is demonstrated that a combination of operating experience analysis with the results of accelerated aging tests of naturally aged equipment could provide a good basis for continuous operation of instrumentation and control systems

A Unified Statistical Rain-Attenuation Model for Communication Link Fade Predictions and Optimal Stochastic Fade Control Design Using a Location-Dependent Rain-Statistic Database

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, Robert M.

1990-01-01

A static and dynamic rain-attenuation model is presented which describes the statistics of attenuation on an arbitrarily specified satellite link for any location for which there are long-term rainfall statistics. The model may be used in the design of the optimal stochastic control algorithms to mitigate the effects of attenuation and maintain link reliability. A rain-statistics data base is compiled, which makes it possible to apply the model to any location in the continental U.S. with a resolution of 0-5 degrees in latitude and longitude. The model predictions are compared with experimental observations, showing good agreement.

Application of mathematical statistics methods to study fluorite deposits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chermeninov, V.B.

1980-01-01

Considered are the applicability of mathematical-statistical methods for the increase of reliability of sampling and geological tasks (study of regularities of ore formation). Compared is the reliability of core sampling (regarding the selective abrasion of fluorite) and neutron activation logging for fluorine. The core sampling data are characterized by higher dispersion than neutron activation logging results (mean value of variation coefficients are 75% and 56% respectively). However the hypothesis of the equality of average two sampling is confirmed; this fact testifies to the absence of considerable variability of ore bodies

Review of Reliability Assessment of Westinghouse SSPS Using SPC by WEC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, H. T.; Chung, H. Y.

2007-01-01

Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has accomplished the reliability assessment of Westinghouse Solid State Protection System (SSPS) in KORI no. 2, 3, 4, and YGN no. 1, 2. In their studies, it is reported that creating a cost-effective plan for improving the reliability of the SSPS and at KORI no. 2, 3 and 4, and YGN no. 1, 2 should be needed while reducing their maintenance cost. In this paper, we reviewed the reliability assessment of Westinghouse SSPS analyzed in two performance standards, availability, and the maintenance expense using Statistic Process Control (SPC). As a result, it is concluded all plants have several failures reported but no effect on the system's availability, and the maintenance expense analysis did not reduce the current maintenance expense by 30%. Therefore, overall review for the reliability assessment is that a new strategy for cost-effective plan and/or upgrade approach for improving the reliability of the aging Westinghouse SSPS should be needed

Single versus mixture Weibull distributions for nonparametric satellite reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

2010-01-01

Long recognized as a critical design attribute for space systems, satellite reliability has not yet received the proper attention as limited on-orbit failure data and statistical analyses can be found in the technical literature. To fill this gap, we recently conducted a nonparametric analysis of satellite reliability for 1584 Earth-orbiting satellites launched between January 1990 and October 2008. In this paper, we provide an advanced parametric fit, based on mixture of Weibull distributions, and compare it with the single Weibull distribution model obtained with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. We demonstrate that both parametric fits are good approximations of the nonparametric satellite reliability, but that the mixture Weibull distribution provides significant accuracy in capturing all the failure trends in the failure data, as evidenced by the analysis of the residuals and their quasi-normal dispersion.

Reliability analysis and assessment of structural systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao, J.T.P.; Anderson, C.A.

1977-01-01

The study of structural reliability deals with the probability of having satisfactory performance of the structure under consideration within any specific time period. To pursue this study, it is necessary to apply available knowledge and methodology in structural analysis (including dynamics) and design, behavior of materials and structures, experimental mechanics, and the theory of probability and statistics. In addition, various severe loading phenomena such as strong motion earthquakes and wind storms are important considerations. For three decades now, much work has been done on reliability analysis of structures, and during this past decade, certain so-called 'Level I' reliability-based design codes have been proposed and are in various stages of implementation. These contributions will be critically reviewed and summarized in this paper. Because of the undesirable consequences resulting from the failure of nuclear structures, it is important and desirable to consider the structural reliability in the analysis and design of these structures. Moreover, after these nuclear structures are constructed, it is desirable for engineers to be able to assess the structural reliability periodically as well as immediately following the occurrence of severe loading conditions such as a strong-motion earthquake. During this past decade, increasing use has been made of techniques of system identification in structural engineering. On the basis of non-destructive test results, various methods have been developed to obtain an adequate mathematical model (such as the equations of motion with more realistic parameters) to represent the structural system

Modeling and Analysis of Component Faults and Reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Le Guilly, Thibaut; Olsen, Petur; Ravn, Anders Peter

2016-01-01

This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets that are automati......This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets...... that are automatically generated. The stochastic information on the faults is used to estimate the reliability of the fault affected system. The reliability is given with respect to properties of the system state space. We illustrate the process on a concrete example using the Uppaal model checker for validating...... the ideal system model and the fault modeling. Then the statistical version of the tool, UppaalSMC, is used to find reliability estimates....

Mechanical Properties for Reliability Analysis of Structures in Glassy Carbon

CERN Document Server

Garion, Cédric

2014-01-01

Despite its good physical properties, the glassy carbon material is not widely used, especially for structural applications. Nevertheless, its transparency to particles and temperature resistance are interesting properties for the applications to vacuum chambers and components in high energy physics. For example, it has been proposed for fast shutter valve in particle accelerator [1] [2]. The mechanical properties have to be carefully determined to assess the reliability of structures in such a material. In this paper, mechanical tests have been carried out to determine the elastic parameters, the strength and toughness on commercial grades. A statistical approach, based on the Weibull’s distribution, is used to characterize the material both in tension and compression. The results are compared to the literature and the difference of properties for these two loading cases is shown. Based on a Finite Element analysis, a statistical approach is applied to define the reliability of a structural component in gl...

On New Cautious Structural Reliability Models in the Framework of imprecise Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Utkin, Lev V.; Kozine, Igor

2010-01-01

models and gen-eralizing conventional ones to imprecise probabili-ties. The theoretical setup employed for this purpose is imprecise statistical reasoning (Walley 1991), whose general framework is provided by upper and lower previsions (expectations). The appeal of this theory is its ability to capture......Uncertainty of parameters in engineering design has been modeled in different frameworks such as inter-val analysis, fuzzy set and possibility theories, ran-dom set theory and imprecise probability theory. The authors of this paper for many years have been de-veloping new imprecise reliability...... both aleatory (stochas-tic) and epistemic uncertainty and the flexibility with which information can be represented. The previous research of the authors related to generalizing structural reliability models to impre-cise statistical measures is summarized in Utkin & Kozine (2002) and Utkin (2004...

Online incidental statistical learning of audiovisual word sequences in adults: a registered report.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuppuraj, Sengottuvel; Duta, Mihaela; Thompson, Paul; Bishop, Dorothy

2018-02-01

Statistical learning has been proposed as a key mechanism in language learning. Our main goal was to examine whether adults are capable of simultaneously extracting statistical dependencies in a task where stimuli include a range of structures amenable to statistical learning within a single paradigm. We devised an online statistical learning task using real word auditory-picture sequences that vary in two dimensions: (i) predictability and (ii) adjacency of dependent elements. This task was followed by an offline recall task to probe learning of each sequence type. We registered three hypotheses with specific predictions. First, adults would extract regular patterns from continuous stream (effect of grammaticality). Second, within grammatical conditions, they would show differential speeding up for each condition as a factor of statistical complexity of the condition and exposure. Third, our novel approach to measure online statistical learning would be reliable in showing individual differences in statistical learning ability. Further, we explored the relation between statistical learning and a measure of verbal short-term memory (STM). Forty-two participants were tested and retested after an interval of at least 3 days on our novel statistical learning task. We analysed the reaction time data using a novel regression discontinuity approach. Consistent with prediction, participants showed a grammaticality effect, agreeing with the predicted order of difficulty for learning different statistical structures. Furthermore, a learning index from the task showed acceptable test-retest reliability ( r  = 0.67). However, STM did not correlate with statistical learning. We discuss the findings noting the benefits of online measures in tracking the learning process.

76 FR 50539 - Advisory Council on Transportation Statistics; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-15

... U.S.C., App. 2) to advise the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on the quality, reliability..., DC 20590, [email protected] , or faxed to (202) 366-3640. BTS requests that written comments...

Feasibility study for the European Reliability Data System (ERDS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mancini, G.

1980-01-01

In the framework of the Reactor Safety Programme of the Commission of the European Communities, the JRC - Ispra Establishment has performed a feasibility study for an integrated European Reliability Data System, the aim of which is the collection and organization of information related to the operation of LWRs with regard to component and systems behaviour, abnormal occurrences, outages, etc. Component Event Data Bank (CEGB), Abnormal Occurrences Reporting System, Generic Reliability Parameter Data Bank, Operating Unit Status Reports and the main activities carried out during the last two years are described. The most important achievements are briefly reported, such as: Reference Classification for Systems, Components and Failure Events, Informatic Structure of the Pilot Experiment of the CEDB, Information Retrieval System for Abnormal Occurrences Reports, Data Bank on Component Reliability Parameters, System on the Exchange of Operation Experience of LWRs, Statistical Data Treatment. Finally, the general conclusions of the feasibility study are summarized: the possibility and the usefulness for the creation of an integrated European Reliability Data System are outlined. (author)

[The reliability of a questionnaire regarding Colombian children's physical activity].

Science.gov (United States)

Herazo-Beltrán, Aliz Y; Domínguez-Anaya, Regina

2012-10-01

Reporting the Physical Activity Questionnaire for school children's (PAQ-C) test-retest reliability and internal consistency. This was a descriptive study of 100 school-aged children aged 9 to 11 years old attending a school in Cartagena, Colombia. The sample was randomly selected. The PAQ-C was given twice, one week apart, after the informed consent forms had been signing by the children's parents and school officials. Cronbach's alpha coefficient of reliability was used for assessing internal consistency and an intra-class correlation coefficient for test-retest reliability SPSS (version 17.0) was used for statistical analysis. The questionnaire scored 0.73 internal consistencies during the first measurement and 0.78 on the second; intra-class correlation coefficient was 0.60. There were differences between boys and girls regarding both measurements. The PAQ-C had acceptable internal consistency and test-retest reliability, thereby making it useful for measuring children's self-reported physical activity and a valuable tool for population studies in Colombia.

Identification of mine waters by statistical multivariate methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mali, N [IGGG, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

1992-01-01

Three water-bearing aquifers are present in the Velenje lignite mine. The aquifer waters have differing chemical composition; a geochemical water analysis can therefore determine the source of mine water influx. Mine water samples from different locations in the mine were analyzed, the results of chemical content and of electric conductivity of mine water were statistically processed by means of MICROGAS, SPSS-X and IN STATPAC computer programs, which apply three multivariate statistical methods (discriminate, cluster and factor analysis). Reliability of calculated values was determined with the Kolmogorov and Smirnov tests. It is concluded that laboratory analysis of single water samples can produce measurement errors, but statistical processing of water sample data can identify origin and movement of mine water. 15 refs.

Impact of High-Reliability Education on Adverse Event Reporting by Registered Nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

McFarland, Diane M; Doucette, Jeffrey N

Adverse event reporting is one strategy to identify risks and improve patient safety, but, historically, adverse events are underreported by registered nurses (RNs) because of fear of retribution and blame. A program was provided on high reliability to examine whether education would impact RNs' willingness to report adverse events. Although the findings were not statistically significant, they demonstrated a positive impact on adverse event reporting and support the need to create a culture of high reliability.

Reliability assessment of creep rupture life for Gr. 91 steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Woo-Gon; Park, Jae-Young; Kim, Seon-Jin; Jang, Jinsung

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Statistical analysis of a number of creep rupture data based on Z parameter. • Determination of the constant C in LM parameter and long-term creep life prediction. • Generation of random variables for Z s and Z cr by Monte-Carlo simulation in a SCRI model. • Examples for design application were reasonably drawn from the viewpoints of reliability. - Abstract: This paper presents reliability assessment of the long-term creep life of Gr. 91 steel, which is a major structural material for high temperature structural components of Generation-IV reactor systems. A number of creep rupture data for Gr. 91 steel were collected through literature surveys, and the long-term creep life was predicted by Larson–Miller parameter. A “Z parameter” method was used to describe the magnitude of the deviation of the creep rupture data to a master curve. A “Service Condition-creep Rupture property Interference (SCRI) model” based on the Z parameter was used to simultaneously consider the scattering of the creep rupture data of materials and the fluctuations of service conditions in reliability assessment. A statistical analysis of the creep rupture data was conducted by the Z parameter. To carry out the SCRI model, a number of random variables for Z s describing service conditions and Z cr describing the dispersion of the creep rupture data were generated using a Monte-Carlo simulation technique. As examples for application, the creep rupture life under a certain service conditions of Gr. 91 steel was reasonably drawn from the viewpoints of reliability

Quantitative metal magnetic memory reliability modeling for welded joints

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Haiyan; Dang, Yongbin; Wang, Ben; Leng, Jiancheng

2016-03-01

Metal magnetic memory(MMM) testing has been widely used to detect welded joints. However, load levels, environmental magnetic field, and measurement noises make the MMM data dispersive and bring difficulty to quantitative evaluation. In order to promote the development of quantitative MMM reliability assessment, a new MMM model is presented for welded joints. Steel Q235 welded specimens are tested along the longitudinal and horizontal lines by TSC-2M-8 instrument in the tensile fatigue experiments. The X-ray testing is carried out synchronously to verify the MMM results. It is found that MMM testing can detect the hidden crack earlier than X-ray testing. Moreover, the MMM gradient vector sum K vs is sensitive to the damage degree, especially at early and hidden damage stages. Considering the dispersion of MMM data, the K vs statistical law is investigated, which shows that K vs obeys Gaussian distribution. So K vs is the suitable MMM parameter to establish reliability model of welded joints. At last, the original quantitative MMM reliability model is first presented based on the improved stress strength interference theory. It is shown that the reliability degree R gradually decreases with the decreasing of the residual life ratio T, and the maximal error between prediction reliability degree R 1 and verification reliability degree R 2 is 9.15%. This presented method provides a novel tool of reliability testing and evaluating in practical engineering for welded joints.

76 FR 2748 - Advisory Council on Transportation Statistics; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-14

... U.S.C., App. 2) to advise the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on the quality, reliability...) 366-3640. BTS requests that written comments be received by February 9, 2011. Access to the DOT...

On estimating perturbative coefficients in quantum field theory and statistical physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samuel, M.A.; Stanford Univ., CA

1994-05-01

The authors present a method for estimating perturbative coefficients in quantum field theory and Statistical Physics. They are able to obtain reliable error-bars for each estimate. The results, in all cases, are excellent

Reliability Analysis of Structural Timber Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hoffmeyer, P.

2000-01-01

Structural systems like timber trussed rafters and roof elements made of timber can be expected to have some degree of redundancy and nonlinear/plastic behaviour when the loading consists of for example snow or imposed load. In this paper this system effect is modelled and the statistic...... of variation. In the paper a stochastic model is described for the strength of a single piece of timber taking into account the stochastic variation of the strength and stiffness with length. Also stochastic models for different types of loads are formulated. First, simple representative systems with different...... types of redundancy and non-linearity are considered. The statistical characteristics of the load bearing capacity are determined by reliability analysis. Next, more complex systems are considered modelling the mechanical behaviour of timber roof elements I stressed skin panels made of timber. Using...

LIF: A new Kriging based learning function and its application to structural reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Zhili; Wang, Jian; Li, Rui; Tong, Cao

2017-01-01

The main task of structural reliability analysis is to estimate failure probability of a studied structure taking randomness of input variables into account. To consider structural behavior practically, numerical models become more and more complicated and time-consuming, which increases the difficulty of reliability analysis. Therefore, sequential strategies of design of experiment (DoE) are raised. In this research, a new learning function, named least improvement function (LIF), is proposed to update DoE of Kriging based reliability analysis method. LIF values how much the accuracy of estimated failure probability will be improved if adding a given point into DoE. It takes both statistical information provided by the Kriging model and the joint probability density function of input variables into account, which is the most important difference from the existing learning functions. Maximum point of LIF is approximately determined with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) simulation. A new reliability analysis method is developed based on the Kriging model, in which LIF, MCMC and Monte Carlo(MC) simulation are employed. Three examples are analyzed. Results show that LIF and the new method proposed in this research are very efficient when dealing with nonlinear performance function, small probability, complicated limit state and engineering problems with high dimension. - Highlights: • Least improvement function (LIF) is proposed for structural reliability analysis. • LIF takes both Kriging based statistical information and joint PDF into account. • A reliability analysis method is constructed based on Kriging, MCS and LIF.

Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

Science.gov (United States)

Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

Reliability of horizontal and vertical tube shift techniques in the localisation of supernumerary teeth.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallineni, S K; Anthonappa, R P; King, N M

2016-12-01

To assess the reliability of the vertical tube shift technique (VTST) and horizontal tube shift technique (HTST) for the localisation of unerupted supernumerary teeth (ST) in the anterior region of the maxilla. A convenience sample of 83 patients who attended a major teaching hospital because of unerupted ST was selected. Only non-syndromic patients with ST and who had complete clinical and radiographic and surgical records were included in the study. Ten examiners independently rated the paired set of radiographs for each technique. Chi-square test, paired t test and kappa statistics were employed to assess the intra- and inter-examiner reliability. Paired sets of 1660 radiographs (830 pairs for each technique) were available for the analysis. The overall sensitivity for VTST and HTST was 80.6 and 72.1% respectively, with slight inter-examiner and good intra-examiner reliability. Statistically significant differences were evident between the two localisation techniques (p HTST in the anterior region of the maxilla.

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Martin; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Ouédraogo, André Lin; Hermsen, Cornelus; Bousema, Teun; Churcher, Thomas S

2015-01-16

Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens.

Sparse Power-Law Network Model for Reliable Statistical Predictions Based on Sampled Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander P. Kartun-Giles

2018-04-01

Full Text Available A projective network model is a model that enables predictions to be made based on a subsample of the network data, with the predictions remaining unchanged if a larger sample is taken into consideration. An exchangeable model is a model that does not depend on the order in which nodes are sampled. Despite a large variety of non-equilibrium (growing and equilibrium (static sparse complex network models that are widely used in network science, how to reconcile sparseness (constant average degree with the desired statistical properties of projectivity and exchangeability is currently an outstanding scientific problem. Here we propose a network process with hidden variables which is projective and can generate sparse power-law networks. Despite the model not being exchangeable, it can be closely related to exchangeable uncorrelated networks as indicated by its information theory characterization and its network entropy. The use of the proposed network process as a null model is here tested on real data, indicating that the model offers a promising avenue for statistical network modelling.

Prediction of Al2O3 leaching recovery in the Bayer process using statistical multilinear regresion analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đurić I.

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the results of defining the mathematical model which describes the dependence of leaching degree of Al2O3 in bauxite from the most influential input parameters in industrial conditions of conducting the leaching process in the Bayer technology of alumina production. Mathematical model is defined using the stepwise MLRA method, with R2 = 0.764 and significant statistical reliability - VIF<2 and p<0.05, on the one-year statistical sample. Validation of the acquired model was performed using the data from the following year, collected from the process conducted under industrial conditions, rendering the same statistical reliability, with R2 = 0.759.

Statistical properties of material strength for reliability evaluation of components of fast reactors. Austenitic stainless steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaya, Shigeru; Sasaki, Naoto; Tomobe, Masato

2015-03-01

Many efforts have been made to implement the System Based Code concept of which objective is to optimize margins dispersed in several codes and standards. Failure probability is expected to be a promising quantitative index for optimization of margins, and statistical information for random variables is needed to evaluate failure probability. Material strength like tensile strength is an important random variable, but the statistical information has not been provided enough yet. In this report, statistical properties of material strength such as creep rupture time, steady creep strain rate, yield stress, tensile stress, flow stress, fatigue life and cyclic stress-strain curve, were estimated for SUS304 and 316FR steel, which are typical structural materials for fast reactors. Other austenitic stainless steels like SUS316 were also used for statistical estimation of some material properties such as fatigue life. These materials are registered in the JSME code of design and construction of fast reactors, so test data used for developing the code were used as much as possible in this report. (author)

Fault tree and reliability relationships for analyzing noncoherent two-state systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alesso, H.P.; Benson, H.J.

1980-01-01

Recently, there has been interest in analyzing the noncoherent interactions that result from adversary theft of special nuclear material from reprocessing facilities. The actions of the adversary, acting in conflict with the reprocessing facility's material control and accounting system, may be viewed as a single noncoherent structure. This paper develops a basis for analyzing noncoherent structures by decomposing them into coherent subsystems. Both reliability and fault tree structure functions are used for this analysis. In addition, a bounding criterion is established for the reliability of statistically dependent noncoherent structures. (orig.)

Reliability analysis for Atucha II reactor protection system signals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roca, Jose Luis

1996-01-01

Atucha II is a 745 MW Argentine Power Nuclear Reactor constructed by ENACE SA, Nuclear Argentine Company for Electrical Power Generation and SIEMENS AG KWU, Erlangen, Germany. A preliminary modular logic analysis of RPS (Reactor Protection System) signals was performed by means of the well known Swedish professional risk and reliability software named Risk-Spectrum taking as a basis a reference signal coded as JR17ER003 which command the two moderator loops valves. From the reliability and behavior knowledge for this reference signal follows an estimation of the reliability for the other 97 RPS signals. Because the preliminary character of this analysis Main Important Measures are not performed at this stage. Reliability is by the statistic value named unavailability predicted. The scope of this analysis is restricted from the measurement elements to the RPS buffer outputs. In the present context only one redundancy is analyzed so in the Instrumentation and Control area there no CCF (Common Cause Failures) present for signals. Finally those unavailability values could be introduced in the failure domain for the posterior complete Atucha II reliability analysis which includes all mechanical and electromechanical features. Also an estimation of the spurious frequency of RPS signals defined as faulty by no trip is performed

Reliability analysis for Atucha II reactor protection system signals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roca, Jose L.

2000-01-01

Atucha II is a 745 MW Argentine power nuclear reactor constructed by Nuclear Argentine Company for Electric Power Generation S.A. (ENACE S.A.) and SIEMENS AG KWU, Erlangen, Germany. A preliminary modular logic analysis of RPS (Reactor Protection System) signals was performed by means of the well known Swedish professional risk and reliability software named Risk-Spectrum taking as a basis a reference signal coded as JR17ER003 which command the two moderator loops valves. From the reliability and behavior knowledge for this reference signal follows an estimation of the reliability for the other 97 RPS signals. Because the preliminary character of this analysis Main Important Measures are not performed at this stage. Reliability is by the statistic value named unavailability predicted. The scope of this analysis is restricted from the measurement elements to the RPS buffer outputs. In the present context only one redundancy is analyzed so in the Instrumentation and Control area there no CCF (Common Cause Failures) present for signals. Finally those unavailability values could be introduced in the failure domain for the posterior complete Atucha II reliability analysis which includes all mechanical and electromechanical features. Also an estimation of the spurious frequency of RPS signals defined as faulty by no trip is performed. (author)

Inter- and intraobserver reliability of the MTM-classification for proximal humeral fractures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bahrs, Christian; Schmal, Hagen; Lingenfelter, Erich

2008-01-01

tool. METHODS: Three observers classified plain radiographs of 22 fractures using both a simple version (fracture displacement, number of parts) and an extensive version (individual topographic fracture type and morphology) of the MTM classification. Kappa-statistics were used to determine reliability....... RESULTS: An acceptable reliability was found for the simple version classifying fracture displacement and fractured main parts. Fair interobserver agreement was found for the extensive version with individual topographic fracture type and morphology. CONCLUSION: Although the MTM-classification covers...

On detection and assessment of statistical significance of Genomic Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chaudhuri Probal

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many of the available methods for detecting Genomic Islands (GIs in prokaryotic genomes use markers such as transposons, proximal tRNAs, flanking repeats etc., or they use other supervised techniques requiring training datasets. Most of these methods are primarily based on the biases in GC content or codon and amino acid usage of the islands. However, these methods either do not use any formal statistical test of significance or use statistical tests for which the critical values and the P-values are not adequately justified. We propose a method, which is unsupervised in nature and uses Monte-Carlo statistical tests based on randomly selected segments of a chromosome. Such tests are supported by precise statistical distribution theory, and consequently, the resulting P-values are quite reliable for making the decision. Results Our algorithm (named Design-Island, an acronym for Detection of Statistically Significant Genomic Island runs in two phases. Some 'putative GIs' are identified in the first phase, and those are refined into smaller segments containing horizontally acquired genes in the refinement phase. This method is applied to Salmonella typhi CT18 genome leading to the discovery of several new pathogenicity, antibiotic resistance and metabolic islands that were missed by earlier methods. Many of these islands contain mobile genetic elements like phage-mediated genes, transposons, integrase and IS elements confirming their horizontal acquirement. Conclusion The proposed method is based on statistical tests supported by precise distribution theory and reliable P-values along with a technique for visualizing statistically significant islands. The performance of our method is better than many other well known methods in terms of their sensitivity and accuracy, and in terms of specificity, it is comparable to other methods.

Validity and Reliability of the Questionnaire for Assessing Women’s Reproductive History in Azar Cohort Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Zakaria Pezeshki

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study was done to evaluate the validity and reliability of women’s reproductive history questionnaire which will be used in Azar Cohort study; a cohort that is conducted by Tabriz University of Medical Science in Shabestar county for identifying risk factors of no communicable diseases. Content and face validity were evaluated by ten experts in the field and quantified as content validity index (CVI and content validity ratio (CVR. To assess the reliability, using test-retest approach, kappa statistic was calculated for categorical variables and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC was used for the quantitative items. The calculated CVI and CVR were 0.91and 0.94, respectively. Reliability for all items was high. The ICC was 0.99 and kappa statistic was equal to 1. The final version of questionnaire was redesigned in 26 items with 7 subscales.

We need more replication research - A case for test-retest reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Leppink, Jimmie; Pérez-Fuster, Patricia

2017-06-01

Following debates in psychology on the importance of replication research, we have also started to see pleas for a more prominent role for replication research in medical education. To enable replication research, it is of paramount importance to carefully study the reliability of the instruments we use. Cronbach's alpha has been the most widely used estimator of reliability in the field of medical education, notably as some kind of quality label of test or questionnaire scores based on multiple items or of the reliability of assessment across exam stations. However, as this narrative review outlines, Cronbach's alpha or alternative reliability statistics may complement but not replace psychometric methods such as factor analysis. Moreover, multiple-item measurements should be preferred above single-item measurements, and when using single-item measurements, coefficients as Cronbach's alpha should not be interpreted as indicators of the reliability of a single item when that item is administered after fundamentally different activities, such as learning tasks that differ in content. Finally, if we want to follow up on recent pleas for more replication research, we have to start studying the test-retest reliability of the instruments we use.

The United States nuclear plant reliability data program: Its description and status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, M.J.

1975-01-01

The American National Standards Institute Subcommittee N18-20 has developed and implemented the United States Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS). The NPRDS is designed to accumulate, store, analyse, and report reliability and failure statistics on systems and components of nuclear power plants related to nuclear safety. Input data to the NPRDS consist of engineering, operating, and failure information submitted on a voluntary basis by participating utilities. Prior to entry into the computerized data base, the data are thoroughly checked for accuracy by both the submitting organizations and the NPRDS operating contractor. The data base is the source of various periodic output reports to the nuclear power industry and is utilized to produce special reports upon request. The present data base represents data accumulated from about thirty nuclear units with additional units expected to begin submitting data immediately. The objective is to have essentially all operating nuclear units in the United States of America participating in the program by the end of 1975. The first NPRDS annual reports containing meaningful reliability and failure statistics are expected to be produced following the end of 1975. (author)

A Statistical Parameter Analysis and SVM Based Fault Diagnosis Strategy for Dynamically Tuned Gyroscopes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

Gyro's fault diagnosis plays a critical role in inertia navigation systems for higher reliability and precision. A new fault diagnosis strategy based on the statistical parameter analysis (SPA) and support vector machine(SVM) classification model was proposed for dynamically tuned gyroscopes (DTG). The SPA, a kind of time domain analysis approach, was introduced to compute a set of statistical parameters of vibration signal as the state features of DTG, with which the SVM model, a novel learning machine based on statistical learning theory (SLT), was applied and constructed to train and identify the working state of DTG. The experimental results verify that the proposed diagnostic strategy can simply and effectively extract the state features of DTG, and it outperforms the radial-basis function (RBF) neural network based diagnostic method and can more reliably and accurately diagnose the working state of DTG.

Development of modelling algorithm of technological systems by statistical tests

Science.gov (United States)

Shemshura, E. A.; Otrokov, A. V.; Chernyh, V. G.

2018-03-01

The paper tackles the problem of economic assessment of design efficiency regarding various technological systems at the stage of their operation. The modelling algorithm of a technological system was performed using statistical tests and with account of the reliability index allows estimating the level of machinery technical excellence and defining the efficiency of design reliability against its performance. Economic feasibility of its application shall be determined on the basis of service quality of a technological system with further forecasting of volumes and the range of spare parts supply.

Overestimation of reliability by Guttman’s λ4, λ5, and λ6, and the greatest lower bound

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterwijk, P.R.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.; van der Ark, L.A.; Wiberg, M.; Culpepper, S.A.; Douglas, J.A.; Wang, W.-C.

2017-01-01

For methods using statistical optimization to estimate lower bounds to test-score reliability, we investigated the degree to which they overestimate true reliability. Optimization methods do not only exploit real relationships between items but also tend to capitalize on sampling error and do this

Statistical validity of using ratio variables in human kinetics research.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yuanlong; Schutz, Robert W

2003-09-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate the validity of the simple ratio and three alternative deflation models and examine how the variation of the numerator and denominator variables affects the reliability of a ratio variable. A simple ratio and three alternative deflation models were fitted to four empirical data sets, and common criteria were applied to determine the best model for deflation. Intraclass correlation was used to examine the component effect on the reliability of a ratio variable. The results indicate that the validity, of a deflation model depends on the statistical characteristics of the particular component variables used, and an optimal deflation model for all ratio variables may not exist. Therefore, it is recommended that different models be fitted to each empirical data set to determine the best deflation model. It was found that the reliability of a simple ratio is affected by the coefficients of variation and the within- and between-trial correlations between the numerator and denominator variables. It was recommended that researchers should compute the reliability of the derived ratio scores and not assume that strong reliabilities in the numerator and denominator measures automatically lead to high reliability in the ratio measures.

The efficiency of retrospective artifact correction methods in improving the statistical power of between-group differences in spinal cord DTI.

Science.gov (United States)

David, Gergely; Freund, Patrick; Mohammadi, Siawoosh

2017-09-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is a promising approach for investigating the white matter microstructure of the spinal cord. However, it suffers from severe susceptibility, physiological, and instrumental artifacts present in the cord. Retrospective correction techniques are popular approaches to reduce these artifacts, because they are widely applicable and do not increase scan time. In this paper, we present a novel outlier rejection approach (reliability masking) which is designed to supplement existing correction approaches by excluding irreversibly corrupted and thus unreliable data points from the DTI index maps. Then, we investigate how chains of retrospective correction techniques including (i) registration, (ii) registration and robust fitting, and (iii) registration, robust fitting, and reliability masking affect the statistical power of a previously reported finding of lower fractional anisotropy values in the posterior column and lateral corticospinal tracts in cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) patients. While established post-processing steps had small effect on the statistical power of the clinical finding (slice-wise registration: -0.5%, robust fitting: +0.6%), adding reliability masking to the post-processing chain increased it by 4.7%. Interestingly, reliability masking and registration affected the t-score metric differently: while the gain in statistical power due to reliability masking was mainly driven by decreased variability in both groups, registration slightly increased variability. In conclusion, reliability masking is particularly attractive for neuroscience and clinical research studies, as it increases statistical power by reducing group variability and thus provides a cost-efficient alternative to increasing the group size. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of visual and instrumental color matching.

Science.gov (United States)

Igiel, Christopher; Lehmann, Karl Martin; Ghinea, Razvan; Weyhrauch, Michael; Hangx, Ysbrand; Scheller, Herbert; Paravina, Rade D

2017-09-01

The aim of this investigation was to evaluate intra-rater and inter-rater reliability of visual and instrumental shade matching. Forty individuals with normal color perception participated in this study. The right maxillary central incisor of a teaching model was prepared and restored with 10 feldspathic all-ceramic crowns of different shades. A shade matching session consisted of the observer (rater) visually selecting the best match by using VITA classical A1-D4 (VC) and VITA Toothguide 3D Master (3D) shade guides and the VITA Easyshade Advance intraoral spectrophotometer (ES) to obtain both VC and 3D matches. Three shade matching sessions were held with 4 to 6 weeks between sessions. Intra-rater reliability was assessed based on the percentage of agreement for the three sessions for the same observer, whereas the inter-rater reliability was calculated as mean percentage of agreement between different observers. The Fleiss' Kappa statistical analysis was used to evaluate visual inter-rater reliability. The mean intra-rater reliability for the visual shade selection was 64(11) for VC and 48(10) for 3D. The corresponding ES values were 96(4) for both VC and 3D. The percentages of observers who matched the same shade with VC and 3D were 55(10) and 43(12), respectively, while corresponding ES values were 88(8) for VC and 92(4) for 3D. The results for visual shade matching exhibited a high to moderate level of inconsistency for both intra-rater and inter-rater comparisons. The VITA Easyshade Advance intraoral spectrophotometer exhibited significantly better reliability compared with visual shade selection. This study evaluates the ability of observers to consistently match the same shade visually and with a dental spectrophotometer in different sessions. The intra-rater and inter-rater reliability (agreement of repeated shade matching) of visual and instrumental tooth color matching strongly suggest the use of color matching instruments as a supplementary tool in

Initiating statistical maintenance optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E. Kevin; Tuomi, Vesa; Rowley, Ian

2007-01-01

Since the 1980 s maintenance optimization has been centered around various formulations of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM). Several such optimization techniques have been implemented at the Bruce Nuclear Station. Further cost refinement of the Station preventive maintenance strategy includes evaluation of statistical optimization techniques. A review of successful pilot efforts in this direction is provided as well as initial work with graphical analysis. The present situation reguarding data sourcing, the principle impediment to use of stochastic methods in previous years, is discussed. The use of Crowe/AMSAA (Army Materials Systems Analysis Activity) plots is demonstrated from the point of view of justifying expenditures in optimization efforts. (author)

On Bayesian reliability analysis with informative priors and censoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coolen, F.P.A.

1996-01-01

In the statistical literature many methods have been presented to deal with censored observations, both within the Bayesian and non-Bayesian frameworks, and such methods have been successfully applied to, e.g., reliability problems. Also, in reliability theory it is often emphasized that, through shortage of statistical data and possibilities for experiments, one often needs to rely heavily on judgements of engineers, or other experts, for which means Bayesian methods are attractive. It is therefore important that such judgements can be elicited easily to provide informative prior distributions that reflect the knowledge of the engineers well. In this paper we focus on this aspect, especially on the situation that the judgements of the consulted engineers are based on experiences in environments where censoring has also been present previously. We suggest the use of the attractive interpretation of hyperparameters of conjugate prior distributions when these are available for assumed parametric models for lifetimes, and we show how one may go beyond the standard conjugate priors, using similar interpretations of hyper-parameters, to enable easier elicitation when censoring has been present in the past. This may even lead to more flexibility for modelling prior knowledge than when using standard conjugate priors, whereas the disadvantage of more complicated calculations that may be needed to determine posterior distributions play a minor role due to the advanced mathematical and statistical software that is widely available these days

Reliability of high-voltage pulse capacitors operating in large energy storages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuchinskij, G.S.; Fedorova, V.S.; Shilin, O.V.

1982-01-01

To improve the reliability of pulse capacitors operating in capacitive energy storages, processes, resulting in break-down of capacitor insulation were investigated. A statistic model of failures was constructed and reliability of real capacitors, functioning at operating electric intensity Usub(oper) equal 70 kV/mm and at elevated intensity 90 kV/mm was calculated. Results of testing the IK50-ZU4 capacitor are given. The form of the capacitor service life distribution function was specified. To provide and confirm the assigned capacitor reliability, it is necessary to speed up tests at a higher voltage (1.3-1.5) Usub(oper). To improve the capacitor reliability, it is advisable to conduct acceptance tests, which include hold at increased constant voltage (1.3-1.5) Usub(oper) during 1-3 min and the effect of pulses of increased voltage (1.2-1.3) Usub(oper) with the pulse shape corresponding to operating conditions

Reliability analysis of maintenance operations for railway tracks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhayma, N.; Bressolette, Ph.; Breul, P.; Fogli, M.; Saussine, G.

2013-01-01

Railway engineering is confronted with problems due to degradation of the railway network that requires important and costly maintenance work. However, because of the lack of knowledge on the geometrical and mechanical parameters of the track, it is difficult to optimize the maintenance management. In this context, this paper presents a new methodology to analyze the behavior of railway tracks. It combines new diagnostic devices which permit to obtain an important amount of data and thus to make statistics on the geometric and mechanical parameters and a non-intrusive stochastic approach which can be coupled with any mechanical model. Numerical results show the possibilities of this methodology for reliability analysis of different maintenance operations. In the future this approach will give important informations to railway managers to optimize maintenance operations using a reliability analysis

reliability reliability

African Journals Online (AJOL)

eobe

Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

Which statistics should tropical biologists learn?

Science.gov (United States)

Loaiza Velásquez, Natalia; González Lutz, María Isabel; Monge-Nájera, Julián

2011-09-01

Tropical biologists study the richest and most endangered biodiversity in the planet, and in these times of climate change and mega-extinctions, the need for efficient, good quality research is more pressing than in the past. However, the statistical component in research published by tropical authors sometimes suffers from poor quality in data collection; mediocre or bad experimental design and a rigid and outdated view of data analysis. To suggest improvements in their statistical education, we listed all the statistical tests and other quantitative analyses used in two leading tropical journals, the Revista de Biología Tropical and Biotropica, during a year. The 12 most frequent tests in the articles were: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Chi-Square Test, Student's T Test, Linear Regression, Pearson's Correlation Coefficient, Mann-Whitney U Test, Kruskal-Wallis Test, Shannon's Diversity Index, Tukey's Test, Cluster Analysis, Spearman's Rank Correlation Test and Principal Component Analysis. We conclude that statistical education for tropical biologists must abandon the old syllabus based on the mathematical side of statistics and concentrate on the correct selection of these and other procedures and tests, on their biological interpretation and on the use of reliable and friendly freeware. We think that their time will be better spent understanding and protecting tropical ecosystems than trying to learn the mathematical foundations of statistics: in most cases, a well designed one-semester course should be enough for their basic requirements.

78 FR 26113 - Advisory Council on Transportation Statistics; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-03

... of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on the quality, reliability, consistency, objectivity, and... introduction of Council Members; (2) Discussion of the usefulness and visibility of current BTS products; (3) Strategies for assuring and enhancing quality of BTS products; (4) Preparations for reauthorization; (5...

A novel random-pulser concept for empirical reliability studies of complex systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Priesmeyer, H.G.

1985-01-01

The concept of a computer-controlled pseudo-random pulser is described, which is able to produce pulse sequences obeying statistical distributions, used in probability assessments of safety technology. It shall be used in empirical investigations of the reliability of complex systems. (orig.) [de

Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty: Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kang Rui

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence-theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics (posbist reliability and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics (belief reliability. It is pointed out that a qualified reliability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to (1 compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and (2 satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.

Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

2018-02-01

Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

Computing Inter-Rater Reliability for Observational Data: An Overview and Tutorial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin A. Hallgren

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Many research designs require the assessment of inter-rater reliability (IRR to demonstrate consistency among observational ratings provided by multiple coders. However, many studies use incorrect statistical procedures, fail to fully report the information necessary to interpret their results, or do not address how IRR affects the power of their subsequent analyses for hypothesis testing. This paper provides an overview of methodological issues related to the assessment of IRR with a focus on study design, selection of appropriate statistics, and the computation, interpretation, and reporting of some commonly-used IRR statistics. Computational examples include SPSS and R syntax for computing Cohen’s kappa and intra-class correlations to assess IRR.

Reliability Approach of a Compressor System using Reliability Block ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

pc

2018-03-05

Mar 5, 2018 ... This paper presents a reliability analysis of such a system using reliability ... Keywords-compressor system, reliability, reliability block diagram, RBD .... the same structure has been kept with the three subsystems: air flow, oil flow and .... and Safety in Engineering Design", Springer, 2009. [3] P. O'Connor ...

Evaluating test-retest reliability in patient-reported outcome measures for older people: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Myung Sook; Kang, Kyung Ja; Jang, Sun Joo; Lee, Joo Yun; Chang, Sun Ju

2018-03-01

This study aimed to evaluate the components of test-retest reliability including time interval, sample size, and statistical methods used in patient-reported outcome measures in older people and to provide suggestions on the methodology for calculating test-retest reliability for patient-reported outcomes in older people. This was a systematic literature review. MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were searched from January 1, 2000 to August 10, 2017 by an information specialist. This systematic review was guided by both the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses checklist and the guideline for systematic review published by the National Evidence-based Healthcare Collaborating Agency in Korea. The methodological quality was assessed by the Consensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement Instruments checklist box B. Ninety-five out of 12,641 studies were selected for the analysis. The median time interval for test-retest reliability was 14days, and the ratio of sample size for test-retest reliability to the number of items in each measure ranged from 1:1 to 1:4. The most frequently used statistical methods for continuous scores was intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Among the 63 studies that used ICCs, 21 studies presented models for ICC calculations and 30 studies reported 95% confidence intervals of the ICCs. Additional analyses using 17 studies that reported a strong ICC (>0.09) showed that the mean time interval was 12.88days and the mean ratio of the number of items to sample size was 1:5.37. When researchers plan to assess the test-retest reliability of patient-reported outcome measures for older people, they need to consider an adequate time interval of approximately 13days and the sample size of about 5 times the number of items. Particularly, statistical methods should not only be selected based on the types of scores of the patient-reported outcome measures, but should also be described clearly in

Frontiers of reliability

CERN Document Server

Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

1998-01-01

This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

Reliability, reference values and predictor variables of the ulnar sensory nerve in disease free adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruediger, T M; Allison, S C; Moore, J M; Wainner, R S

2014-09-01

The purposes of this descriptive and exploratory study were to examine electrophysiological measures of ulnar sensory nerve function in disease free adults to determine reliability, determine reference values computed with appropriate statistical methods, and examine predictive ability of anthropometric variables. Antidromic sensory nerve conduction studies of the ulnar nerve using surface electrodes were performed on 100 volunteers. Reference values were computed from optimally transformed data. Reliability was computed from 30 subjects. Multiple linear regression models were constructed from four predictor variables. Reliability was greater than 0.85 for all paired measures. Responses were elicited in all subjects; reference values for sensory nerve action potential (SNAP) amplitude from above elbow stimulation are 3.3 μV and decrement across-elbow less than 46%. No single predictor variable accounted for more than 15% of the variance in the response. Electrophysiologic measures of the ulnar sensory nerve are reliable. Absent SNAP responses are inconsistent with disease free individuals. Reference values recommended in this report are based on appropriate transformations of non-normally distributed data. No strong statistical model of prediction could be derived from the limited set of predictor variables. Reliability analyses combined with relatively low level of measurement error suggest that ulnar sensory reference values may be used with confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A General Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Donhang

2014-01-01

The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with Ni electrode and BaTiO3 dielectric material for potential space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. A general reliability model for Ni-BaTiO3 MLCC is developed and discussed. The model consists of three parts: a statistical distribution; an acceleration function that describes how a capacitor's reliability life responds to the external stresses, and an empirical function that defines contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size, and capacitor chip size A. Application examples are also discussed based on the proposed reliability model for Ni-BaTiO3 MLCCs.

On new cautious structural reliability models in the framework of imprecise probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Utkin, Lev; Kozine, Igor

2010-01-01

measures when the number of events of interest or observations is very small. The main feature of the models is that prior ignorance is not modelled by a fixed single prior distribution, but by a class of priors which is defined by upper and lower probabilities that can converge as statistical data......New imprecise structural reliability models are described in this paper. They are developed based on the imprecise Bayesian inference and are imprecise Dirichlet, imprecise negative binomial, gamma-exponential and normal models. The models are applied to computing cautious structural reliability...

78 FR 66104 - Advisory Council on Transportation Statistics; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-04

... advise the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on the quality, reliability, consistency... current BTS products; (3) Follow-up discussion of strategies for assuring and enhancing quality of BTS products; (4) Future directions for BTS programs; (5) Public Comments and Closing Remarks. Participation is...

The art of progressive censoring applications to reliability and quality

CERN Document Server

Balakrishnan, N

2014-01-01

This monograph offers a thorough and updated guide to the theory and methods of progressive censoring, an area that has experienced tremendous growth in recent years. Progressive censoring, originally proposed in the 1950s, is an efficient method of handling samples from industrial experiments involving lifetimes of units that have either failed or censored in a progressive fashion during the life test, with many practical applications to reliability and quality. Key topics and features: Data sets from the literature as well as newly simulated data sets are used to illustrate concepts throughout the text Emphasis on real-life applications to life testing, reliability, and quality control Discussion of parametric and nonparametric inference Coverage of experimental design with optimal progressive censoring The Art of Progressive Censoring is a valuable reference for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in applied statistics, quality control, life testing, and reliability. With its accessible style...

System Reliability Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Tae Jin

2005-02-01

This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

Mathematical and statistical applications in life sciences and engineering

CERN Document Server

Adhikari, Mahima; Chaubey, Yogendra

2017-01-01

The book includes articles from eminent international scientists discussing a wide spectrum of topics of current importance in mathematics and statistics and their applications. It presents state-of-the-art material along with a clear and detailed review of the relevant topics and issues concerned. The topics discussed include message transmission, colouring problem, control of stochastic structures and information dynamics, image denoising, life testing and reliability, survival and frailty models, analysis of drought periods, prediction of genomic profiles, competing risks, environmental applications and chronic disease control. It is a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in the relevant areas of mathematics and statistics.

The quantitative failure of human reliability analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, C.T.

1995-07-01

This philosophical treatise argues the merits of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the context of the nuclear power industry. Actually, the author attacks historic and current HRA as having failed in informing policy makers who make decisions based on risk that humans contribute to systems performance. He argues for an HRA based on Bayesian (fact-based) inferential statistics, which advocates a systems analysis process that employs cogent heuristics when using opinion, and tempers itself with a rational debate over the weight given subjective and empirical probabilities.

Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pertti Hari

Full Text Available We collected relevant observational and measured annual-resolution time series dealing with climate in northern Europe, focusing in Finland. We analysed these series for the reliability of their temperature signal at annual and seasonal resolutions. Importantly, we analysed all of the indicators within the same statistical framework, which allows for their meaningful comparison. In this framework, we employed a cross-validation procedure designed to reduce the adverse effects of estimation bias that may inflate the reliability of various temperature indicators, especially when several indicators are used in a multiple regression model. In our data sets, timing of phenological observations and ice break-up were connected with spring, tree ring characteristics (width, density, carbon isotopic composition with summer and ice formation with autumn temperatures. Baltic Sea ice extent and the duration of ice cover in different watercourses were good indicators of winter temperatures. Using combinations of various temperature indicator series resulted in reliable temperature signals for each of the four seasons, as well as a reliable annual temperature signal. The results hence demonstrated that we can obtain reliable temperature information over different seasons, using a careful selection of indicators, combining the results with regression analysis, and by determining the reliability of the obtained indicator.

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Science.gov (United States)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Thesken, John C.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie

2007-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tee, Kong Fah; Khan, Lutfor Rahman; Li, Hongshuang

2014-01-01

This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction

A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

1986-01-01

The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

Comparative analysis of positive and negative attitudes toward statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Ghulami, Hassan Rahnaward; Ab Hamid, Mohd Rashid; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah

2015-02-01

Many statistics lecturers and statistics education researchers are interested to know the perception of their students' attitudes toward statistics during the statistics course. In statistics course, positive attitude toward statistics is a vital because it will be encourage students to get interested in the statistics course and in order to master the core content of the subject matters under study. Although, students who have negative attitudes toward statistics they will feel depressed especially in the given group assignment, at risk for failure, are often highly emotional, and could not move forward. Therefore, this study investigates the students' attitude towards learning statistics. Six latent constructs have been the measurement of students' attitudes toward learning statistic such as affect, cognitive competence, value, difficulty, interest, and effort. The questionnaire was adopted and adapted from the reliable and validate instrument of Survey of Attitudes towards Statistics (SATS). This study is conducted among engineering undergraduate engineering students in the university Malaysia Pahang (UMP). The respondents consist of students who were taking the applied statistics course from different faculties. From the analysis, it is found that the questionnaire is acceptable and the relationships among the constructs has been proposed and investigated. In this case, students show full effort to master the statistics course, feel statistics course enjoyable, have confidence that they have intellectual capacity, and they have more positive attitudes then negative attitudes towards statistics learning. In conclusion in terms of affect, cognitive competence, value, interest and effort construct the positive attitude towards statistics was mostly exhibited. While negative attitudes mostly exhibited by difficulty construct.

A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, B.; Xie, M.

2000-01-01

Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated

Human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.

1987-01-01

Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

Statistical experimental design for refractory coatings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKinnon, J.A.; Standard, O.C.

2000-01-01

The production of refractory coatings on metal casting moulds is critically dependent on the development of suitable rheological characteristics, such as viscosity and thixotropy, in the initial coating slurry. In this paper, the basic concepts of mixture design and analysis are applied to the formulation of a refractory coating, with illustration by a worked example. Experimental data of coating viscosity versus composition are fitted to a statistical model to obtain a reliable method of predicting the optimal formulation of the coating. Copyright (2000) The Australian Ceramic Society

Design for Reliability and Robustness Tool Platform for Power Electronic Systems – Study Case on Motor Drive Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vernica, Ionut; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

2018-01-01

conventional approach, mainly based on failure statistics from the field, the reliability evaluation of the power devices is still a challenging task. In order to address the given problem, a MATLAB based reliability assessment tool has been developed. The Design for Reliability and Robustness (DfR2) tool...... allows the user to easily investigate the reliability performance of the power electronic components (or sub-systems) under given input mission profiles and operating conditions. The main concept of the tool and its framework are introduced, highlighting the reliability assessment procedure for power...... semiconductor devices. Finally, a motor drive application is implemented and the reliability performance of the power devices is investigated with the help of the DfR2 tool, and the resulting reliability metrics are presented....

Methodological difficulties of conducting agroecological studies from a statistical perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bianconi, A.; Dalgaard, Tommy; Manly, Bryan F J

2013-01-01

Statistical methods for analysing agroecological data might not be able to help agroecologists to solve all of the current problems concerning crop and animal husbandry, but such methods could well help agroecologists to assess, tackle, and resolve several agroecological issues in a more reliable...... and accurate manner. Therefore, our goal in this paper is to discuss the importance of statistical tools for alternative agronomic approaches, because alternative approaches, such as organic farming, should not only be promoted by encouraging farmers to deploy agroecological techniques, but also by providing...

Improved model for statistical alignment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miklos, I.; Toroczkai, Z. (Zoltan)

2001-01-01

The statistical approach to molecular sequence evolution involves the stochastic modeling of the substitution, insertion and deletion processes. Substitution has been modeled in a reliable way for more than three decades by using finite Markov-processes. Insertion and deletion, however, seem to be more difficult to model, and thc recent approaches cannot acceptably deal with multiple insertions and deletions. A new method based on a generating function approach is introduced to describe the multiple insertion process. The presented algorithm computes the approximate joint probability of two sequences in 0(13) running time where 1 is the geometric mean of the sequence lengths.

Quantum information theory and quantum statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petz, D.

2008-01-01

Based on lectures given by the author, this book focuses on providing reliable introductory explanations of key concepts of quantum information theory and quantum statistics - rather than on results. The mathematically rigorous presentation is supported by numerous examples and exercises and by an appendix summarizing the relevant aspects of linear analysis. Assuming that the reader is familiar with the content of standard undergraduate courses in quantum mechanics, probability theory, linear algebra and functional analysis, the book addresses graduate students of mathematics and physics as well as theoretical and mathematical physicists. Conceived as a primer to bridge the gap between statistical physics and quantum information, a field to which the author has contributed significantly himself, it emphasizes concepts and thorough discussions of the fundamental notions to prepare the reader for deeper studies, not least through the selection of well chosen exercises. (orig.)

System reliability analysis using dominant failure modes identified by selective searching technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong-Seok; Ok, Seung-Yong; Song, Junho; Koh, Hyun-Moo

2013-01-01

The failure of a redundant structural system is often described by innumerable system failure modes such as combinations or sequences of local failures. An efficient approach is proposed to identify dominant failure modes in the space of random variables, and then perform system reliability analysis to compute the system failure probability. To identify dominant failure modes in the decreasing order of their contributions to the system failure probability, a new simulation-based selective searching technique is developed using a genetic algorithm. The system failure probability is computed by a multi-scale matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method. Lower-scale MSR analyses evaluate the probabilities of the identified failure modes and their statistical dependence. A higher-scale MSR analysis evaluates the system failure probability based on the results of the lower-scale analyses. Three illustrative examples demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the approach through comparison with existing methods and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed method skillfully identifies the dominant failure modes, including those neglected by existing approaches. The multi-scale MSR method accurately evaluates the system failure probability with statistical dependence fully considered. The decoupling between the failure mode identification and the system reliability evaluation allows for effective applications to larger structural systems

Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method; Analiza pouzdanosti reaktorskih sistema primenom metoda verovatnoce

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milivojevic, S [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Serbia and Montenegro)

1974-12-15

Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component.

Nuclear medicine statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, P.M.

1977-01-01

Numerical description of medical and biologic phenomena is proliferating. Laboratory studies on patients now yield measurements of at least a dozen indices, each with its own normal limits. Within nuclear medicine, numerical analysis as well as numerical measurement and the use of computers are becoming more common. While the digital computer has proved to be a valuable tool for measurment and analysis of imaging and radioimmunoassay data, it has created more work in that users now ask for more detailed calculations and for indices that measure the reliability of quantified observations. The following material is presented with the intention of providing a straight-forward methodology to determine values for some useful parameters and to estimate the errors involved. The process used is that of asking relevant questions and then providing answers by illustrations. It is hoped that this will help the reader avoid an error of the third kind, that is, the error of statistical misrepresentation or inadvertent deception. This occurs most frequently in cases where the right answer is found to the wrong question. The purposes of this chapter are: (1) to provide some relevant statistical theory, using a terminology suitable for the nuclear medicine field; (2) to demonstrate the application of a number of statistical methods to the kinds of data commonly encountered in nuclear medicine; (3) to provide a framework to assist the experimenter in choosing the method and the questions most suitable for the experiment at hand; and (4) to present a simple approach for a quantitative quality control program for scintillation cameras and other radiation detectors

Reliability Calculations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Kurt Erling

1986-01-01

Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

Reliability of conditioned pain modulation: a systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Donna L.; Kemp, Harriet I.; Ridout, Deborah; Yarnitsky, David; Rice, Andrew S.C.

2016-01-01

Abstract A systematic literature review was undertaken to determine if conditioned pain modulation (CPM) is reliable. Longitudinal, English language observational studies of the repeatability of a CPM test paradigm in adult humans were included. Two independent reviewers assessed the risk of bias in 6 domains; study participation; study attrition; prognostic factor measurement; outcome measurement; confounding and analysis using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) critical assessment tool. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) less than 0.4 were considered to be poor; 0.4 and 0.59 to be fair; 0.6 and 0.75 good and greater than 0.75 excellent. Ten studies were included in the final review. Meta-analysis was not appropriate because of differences between studies. The intersession reliability of the CPM effect was investigated in 8 studies and reported as good (ICC = 0.6-0.75) in 3 studies and excellent (ICC > 0.75) in subgroups in 2 of those 3. The assessment of risk of bias demonstrated that reporting is not comprehensive for the description of sample demographics, recruitment strategy, and study attrition. The absence of blinding, a lack of control for confounding factors, and lack of standardisation in statistical analysis are common. Conditioned pain modulation is a reliable measure; however, the degree of reliability is heavily dependent on stimulation parameters and study methodology and this warrants consideration for investigators. The validation of CPM as a robust prognostic factor in experimental and clinical pain studies may be facilitated by improvements in the reporting of CPM reliability studies. PMID:27559835

The effect of introducing increased-reliability-risk electronic components into 3rd generation telecommunications systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salmela, Olli

2005-01-01

In this paper, the dependability of 3rd generation telecommunications network systems is studied. Special attention is paid to a case where increased-reliability-risk electronic components are introduced to the system. The paper consists of three parts: First, the reliability data of four electronic components is considered. This includes statistical analysis of the reliability test data, thermo-mechanical finite element analysis of the printed wiring board structures, and based on those, a field reliability estimate of the components is constructed. Second, the component level reliability data is introduced into the network element reliability analysis. This is accomplished by using a reliability block diagram technique and Monte Carlo simulation of the network element. The end result of the second part is a reliability estimate of the network element with and without the high-risk component. Third, the whole 3rd generation network having multiple network elements is analyzed. In this part, the criticality of introducing high-risk electronic components into a 3rd generation telecommunications network is considered

The effect of introducing increased-reliability-risk electronic components into 3rd generation telecommunications systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salmela, Olli [Nokia Networks, P.O. Box 301, 00045 Nokia Group (Finland)]. E-mail: olli.salmela@nokia.com

2005-08-01

In this paper, the dependability of 3rd generation telecommunications network systems is studied. Special attention is paid to a case where increased-reliability-risk electronic components are introduced to the system. The paper consists of three parts: First, the reliability data of four electronic components is considered. This includes statistical analysis of the reliability test data, thermo-mechanical finite element analysis of the printed wiring board structures, and based on those, a field reliability estimate of the components is constructed. Second, the component level reliability data is introduced into the network element reliability analysis. This is accomplished by using a reliability block diagram technique and Monte Carlo simulation of the network element. The end result of the second part is a reliability estimate of the network element with and without the high-risk component. Third, the whole 3rd generation network having multiple network elements is analyzed. In this part, the criticality of introducing high-risk electronic components into a 3rd generation telecommunications network is considered.

Reliability-Based Design and Planning of Inspection and Monitoring of Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marquez-Dominguez, Sergio

Maintaining and developing a sustainable wind industry is the main motivation of this PhD thesis entitled “Reliability-based design and planning of inspection and monitoring of offshore wind turbines”. In this thesis, statistical methods and probability theory are important mathematical tools used...... and offshore wind turbine foundations with the aim of improving the design, decreasing structural costs and increasing benefits. Recently, wind energy technology has started to adopt risk and reliability based inspection planning (RBI) as a methodology based on Bayesian decision theories together...

Fast Metabolite Identification in Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Metabolomic Studies: Statistical Peak Sorting and Peak Overlap Detection for More Reliable Database Queries.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoijemberg, Pablo A; Pelczer, István

2018-01-05

A lot of time is spent by researchers in the identification of metabolites in NMR-based metabolomic studies. The usual metabolite identification starts employing public or commercial databases to match chemical shifts thought to belong to a given compound. Statistical total correlation spectroscopy (STOCSY), in use for more than a decade, speeds the process by finding statistical correlations among peaks, being able to create a better peak list as input for the database query. However, the (normally not automated) analysis becomes challenging due to the intrinsic issue of peak overlap, where correlations of more than one compound appear in the STOCSY trace. Here we present a fully automated methodology that analyzes all STOCSY traces at once (every peak is chosen as driver peak) and overcomes the peak overlap obstacle. Peak overlap detection by clustering analysis and sorting of traces (POD-CAST) first creates an overlap matrix from the STOCSY traces, then clusters the overlap traces based on their similarity and finally calculates a cumulative overlap index (COI) to account for both strong and intermediate correlations. This information is gathered in one plot to help the user identify the groups of peaks that would belong to a single molecule and perform a more reliable database query. The simultaneous examination of all traces reduces the time of analysis, compared to viewing STOCSY traces by pairs or small groups, and condenses the redundant information in the 2D STOCSY matrix into bands containing similar traces. The COI helps in the detection of overlapping peaks, which can be added to the peak list from another cross-correlated band. POD-CAST overcomes the generally overlooked and underestimated presence of overlapping peaks and it detects them to include them in the search of all compounds contributing to the peak overlap, enabling the user to accelerate the metabolite identification process with more successful database queries and searching all tentative

Reliability in the utility computing era: Towards reliable Fog computing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Burtschy, Bernard; Albeanu, G.

2013-01-01

This paper considers current paradigms in computing and outlines the most important aspects concerning their reliability. The Fog computing paradigm as a non-trivial extension of the Cloud is considered and the reliability of the networks of smart devices are discussed. Combining the reliability...... requirements of grid and cloud paradigms with the reliability requirements of networks of sensor and actuators it follows that designing a reliable Fog computing platform is feasible....

Reliability-Based Inspection Planning for Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1993-01-01

A general model for reliability-based optimal inspection and repair strategies for structural systems is described. The total expected costs in the design lifetime is minimized with the number of inspections, the inspection times and efforts as decision variables. The equivalence of this model...... with a preposterior analysis from statistical decision theory is discussed. It is described how information obtained by an inspection can be used in a repair decision. Stochastic models for inspection, measurement and repair actions are presented. The general model is applied for inspection and repair planning...

Statistical Analysis of Clinical Data on a Pocket Calculator, Part 2 Statistics on a Pocket Calculator, Part 2

CERN Document Server

Cleophas, Ton J

2012-01-01

The first part of this title contained all statistical tests relevant to starting clinical investigations, and included tests for continuous and binary data, power, sample size, multiple testing, variability, confounding, interaction, and reliability. The current part 2 of this title reviews methods for handling missing data, manipulated data, multiple confounders, predictions beyond observation, uncertainty of diagnostic tests, and the problems of outliers. Also robust tests, non-linear modeling , goodness of fit testing, Bhatacharya models, item response modeling, superiority testing, variab

A reliability study on brain activation during active and passive arm movements supported by an MRI-compatible robot.

Science.gov (United States)

Estévez, Natalia; Yu, Ningbo; Brügger, Mike; Villiger, Michael; Hepp-Reymond, Marie-Claude; Riener, Robert; Kollias, Spyros

2014-11-01

In neurorehabilitation, longitudinal assessment of arm movement related brain function in patients with motor disability is challenging due to variability in task performance. MRI-compatible robots monitor and control task performance, yielding more reliable evaluation of brain function over time. The main goals of the present study were first to define the brain network activated while performing active and passive elbow movements with an MRI-compatible arm robot (MaRIA) in healthy subjects, and second to test the reproducibility of this activation over time. For the fMRI analysis two models were compared. In model 1 movement onset and duration were included, whereas in model 2 force and range of motion were added to the analysis. Reliability of brain activation was tested with several statistical approaches applied on individual and group activation maps and on summary statistics. The activated network included mainly the primary motor cortex, primary and secondary somatosensory cortex, superior and inferior parietal cortex, medial and lateral premotor regions, and subcortical structures. Reliability analyses revealed robust activation for active movements with both fMRI models and all the statistical methods used. Imposed passive movements also elicited mainly robust brain activation for individual and group activation maps, and reliability was improved by including additional force and range of motion using model 2. These findings demonstrate that the use of robotic devices, such as MaRIA, can be useful to reliably assess arm movement related brain activation in longitudinal studies and may contribute in studies evaluating therapies and brain plasticity following injury in the nervous system.

Estimating The Reliability of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Flash X-ray (FXR) Machine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ong, M M; Kihara, R; Zentler, J M; Kreitzer, B R; DeHope, W J

2007-01-01

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), our flash X-ray accelerator (FXR) is used on multi-million dollar hydrodynamic experiments. Because of the importance of the radiographs, FXR must be ultra-reliable. Flash linear accelerators that can generate a 3 kA beam at 18 MeV are very complex. They have thousands, if not millions, of critical components that could prevent the machine from performing correctly. For the last five years, we have quantified and are tracking component failures. From this data, we have determined that the reliability of the high-voltage gas-switches that initiate the pulses, which drive the accelerator cells, dominates the statistics. The failure mode is a single-switch pre-fire that reduces the energy of the beam and degrades the X-ray spot-size. The unfortunate result is a lower resolution radiograph. FXR is a production machine that allows only a modest number of pulses for testing. Therefore, reliability switch testing that requires thousands of shots is performed on our test stand. Study of representative switches has produced pre-fire statistical information and probability distribution curves. This information is applied to FXR to develop test procedures and determine individual switch reliability using a minimal number of accelerator pulses

1984 Statistical symposium on national energy issues: proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinnison, R.; Doctor, P.

1985-07-01

The 1984 Statistical Symposium on National Energy Issues was the tenth in a series of annual symposia bringing together statisticians and other interested parties who are actively engaged in the pursuit of solving the nation's energy problems. Initially the symposium was sponsored by US Department of Energy (DOE) and named the DOE Statistical Symposium. The symposium is organized by a steering committee made up of representatives from the national laboratories. The 1984 symposium was hosted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory, and it was organized around four special topical sessions: (1) assessing and assuring high reliability, (2) spatial statistical, (3) quantification of informed opinion, and (4) health effects of energy technologies. These were chosen by the steering committee as topics currently of high importance in energy research and data analysis. Several contributed papers were also presented. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 17 papers for inclusion in the Energy Data Base

77 FR 10616 - Advisory Council on Transportation Statistics; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-22

.... 2) to advise the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on the quality, reliability, consistency... budget; (4) Update on BTS data programs and future plans; (5) Council Members review and discussion of BTS programs and plans; (6) Public Comments and Closing Remarks. Participation is open to the public...

An invariant approach to statistical analysis of shapes

CERN Document Server

Lele, Subhash R

2001-01-01

INTRODUCTIONA Brief History of MorphometricsFoundations for the Study of Biological FormsDescription of the data SetsMORPHOMETRIC DATATypes of Morphometric DataLandmark Homology and CorrespondenceCollection of Landmark CoordinatesReliability of Landmark Coordinate DataSummarySTATISTICAL MODELS FOR LANDMARK COORDINATE DATAStatistical Models in GeneralModels for Intra-Group VariabilityEffect of Nuisance ParametersInvariance and Elimination of Nuisance ParametersA Definition of FormCoordinate System Free Representation of FormEst

Analyzing the reliability of shuffle-exchange networks using reliability block diagrams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bistouni, Fathollah; Jahanshahi, Mohsen

2014-01-01

Supercomputers and multi-processor systems are comprised of thousands of processors that need to communicate in an efficient way. One reasonable solution would be the utilization of multistage interconnection networks (MINs), where the challenge is to analyze the reliability of such networks. One of the methods to increase the reliability and fault-tolerance of the MINs is use of various switching stages. Therefore, recently, the reliability of one of the most common MINs namely shuffle-exchange network (SEN) has been evaluated through the investigation on the impact of increasing the number of switching stage. Also, it is concluded that the reliability of SEN with one additional stage (SEN+) is better than SEN or SEN with two additional stages (SEN+2), even so, the reliability of SEN is better compared to SEN with two additional stages (SEN+2). Here we re-evaluate the reliability of these networks where the results of the terminal, broadcast, and network reliability analysis demonstrate that SEN+ and SEN+2 continuously outperform SEN and are very alike in terms of reliability. - Highlights: • The impact of increasing the number of stages on reliability of MINs is investigated. • The RBD method as an accurate method is used for the reliability analysis of MINs. • Complex series–parallel RBDs are used to determine the reliability of the MINs. • All measures of the reliability (i.e. terminal, broadcast, and network reliability) are analyzed. • All reliability equations will be calculated for different size N×N

Statistical analysis of random duration times

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelhardt, M.E.

1996-04-01

This report presents basic statistical methods for analyzing data obtained by observing random time durations. It gives nonparametric estimates of the cumulative distribution function, reliability function and cumulative hazard function. These results can be applied with either complete or censored data. Several models which are commonly used with time data are discussed, and methods for model checking and goodness-of-fit tests are discussed. Maximum likelihood estimates and confidence limits are given for the various models considered. Some results for situations where repeated durations such as repairable systems are also discussed

Modeling Sensor Reliability in Fault Diagnosis Based on Evidence Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaijuan Yuan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Sensor data fusion plays an important role in fault diagnosis. Dempster–Shafer (D-R evidence theory is widely used in fault diagnosis, since it is efficient to combine evidence from different sensors. However, under the situation where the evidence highly conflicts, it may obtain a counterintuitive result. To address the issue, a new method is proposed in this paper. Not only the statistic sensor reliability, but also the dynamic sensor reliability are taken into consideration. The evidence distance function and the belief entropy are combined to obtain the dynamic reliability of each sensor report. A weighted averaging method is adopted to modify the conflict evidence by assigning different weights to evidence according to sensor reliability. The proposed method has better performance in conflict management and fault diagnosis due to the fact that the information volume of each sensor report is taken into consideration. An application in fault diagnosis based on sensor fusion is illustrated to show the efficiency of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of fault diagnosis from 81.19% to 89.48% compared to the existing methods.

Reliability-based load and resistance factor design for piping: an exploratory case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Abhinav; Choi, Byounghoan

2003-01-01

This paper presents an exploratory case study on the application of Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approach to the Section III of ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel code for piping design. The failure criterion for defining the performance function is considered as plastic instability. Presently used design equation is calibrated by evaluating the minimum reliability levels associated with it. If the target reliability in the LRFD approach is same as that evaluated for the presently used design equation, it is shown that the total safety factors for the two design equations are identical. It is observed that the load and resistance factors are not dependent upon the diameter to thickness ratio. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to study the variations in the load and resistance factors due to changes in (a) coefficients of variation for pressure, moment, and ultimate stress, (b) ratio of mean design pressure to mean design moment, (c) distribution types used for characterizing the random variables, and (d) statistical correlation between random variables. It is observed that characterization of random variables by log-normal distribution is reasonable. Consideration of statistical correlation between the ultimate stress and section modulus gives higher values of the load factor for pressure but lower value for the moment than the corresponding values obtained by considering the variables to be uncorrelated. Since the effect of statistical correlation on the load and resistance factors is relatively insignificant for target reliability values of practical interest, the effect of correlated variables may be neglected

Validity and Reliability of Agoraphobic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayşegül KART

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Validity and Reliability of Agoraphobic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate the validity and reliability of Agoraphobic Cognitions Questionnaire -Turkish Version (ACQ. Method: ACQ was administered to 92 patients with agoraphobia or panic disorder with agoraphobia. BSQ Turkish version completed by translation, back-translation and pilot assessment. Reliability of ACQ was analyzed by test-retest correlation, split-half technique, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis after the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO and Bartlett test had been performed. Principal component analysis and varimax rotation used for factor analysis. Results: 64% of patients evaluated in the study were female and 36% were male. Age interval was between 18 and 58, mean age was 31.5±10.4. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.91. Analysis of test-retest evaluations revealed that there were statistically significant correlations ranging between 24% and 84% concerning questionnaire components. In analysis performed by split-half method reliability coefficients of half questionnaires were found as 0.77 and 0.91. Again Spearmen-Brown coefficient was found as 0.87 by the same analysis. To assess construct validity of ACQ, factor analysis was performed and two basic factors found. These two factors explained 57.6% of the total variance. (Factor 1: 34.6%, Factor 2: 23% Conclusion: Our findings support that ACQ-Turkish version had a satisfactory level of reliability and validity

Pitfalls and important issues in testing reliability using intraclass correlation coefficients in orthopaedic research.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyoung Min; Lee, Jaebong; Chung, Chin Youb; Ahn, Soyeon; Sung, Ki Hyuk; Kim, Tae Won; Lee, Hui Jong; Park, Moon Seok

2012-06-01

Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) provide a statistical means of testing the reliability. However, their interpretation is not well documented in the orthopedic field. The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of ICCs in the orthopedic literature and to demonstrate pitfalls regarding their use. First, orthopedic articles that used ICCs were retrieved from the Pubmed database, and journal demography, ICC models and concurrent statistics used were evaluated. Second, reliability test was performed on three common physical examinations in cerebral palsy, namely, the Thomas test, the Staheli test, and popliteal angle measurement. Thirty patients were assessed by three orthopedic surgeons to explore the statistical methods testing reliability. Third, the factors affecting the ICC values were examined by simulating the data sets based on the physical examination data where the ranges, slopes, and interobserver variability were modified. Of the 92 orthopedic articles identified, 58 articles (63%) did not clarify the ICC model used, and only 5 articles (5%) described all models, types, and measures. In reliability testing, although the popliteal angle showed a larger mean absolute difference than the Thomas test and the Staheli test, the ICC of popliteal angle was higher, which was believed to be contrary to the context of measurement. In addition, the ICC values were affected by the model, type, and measures used. In simulated data sets, the ICC showed higher values when the range of data sets were larger, the slopes of the data sets were parallel, and the interobserver variability was smaller. Care should be taken when interpreting the absolute ICC values, i.e., a higher ICC does not necessarily mean less variability because the ICC values can also be affected by various factors. The authors recommend that researchers clarify ICC models used and ICC values are interpreted in the context of measurement.

Using the Weibull distribution reliability, modeling and inference

CERN Document Server

McCool, John I

2012-01-01

Understand and utilize the latest developments in Weibull inferential methods While the Weibull distribution is widely used in science and engineering, most engineers do not have the necessary statistical training to implement the methodology effectively. Using the Weibull Distribution: Reliability, Modeling, and Inference fills a gap in the current literature on the topic, introducing a self-contained presentation of the probabilistic basis for the methodology while providing powerful techniques for extracting information from data. The author explains the use of the Weibull distribution

Estimation of measurement variance in the context of environment statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Maiti, Pulakesh

2015-02-01

The object of environment statistics is for providing information on the environment, on its most important changes over time, across locations and identifying the main factors that influence them. Ultimately environment statistics would be required to produce higher quality statistical information. For this timely, reliable and comparable data are needed. Lack of proper and uniform definitions, unambiguous classifications pose serious problems to procure qualitative data. These cause measurement errors. We consider the problem of estimating measurement variance so that some measures may be adopted to improve upon the quality of data on environmental goods and services and on value statement in economic terms. The measurement technique considered here is that of employing personal interviewers and the sampling considered here is that of two-stage sampling.

Statistical methods for quantitative mass spectrometry proteomic experiments with labeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oberg Ann L

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Mass Spectrometry utilizing labeling allows multiple specimens to be subjected to mass spectrometry simultaneously. As a result, between-experiment variability is reduced. Here we describe use of fundamental concepts of statistical experimental design in the labeling framework in order to minimize variability and avoid biases. We demonstrate how to export data in the format that is most efficient for statistical analysis. We demonstrate how to assess the need for normalization, perform normalization, and check whether it worked. We describe how to build a model explaining the observed values and test for differential protein abundance along with descriptive statistics and measures of reliability of the findings. Concepts are illustrated through the use of three case studies utilizing the iTRAQ 4-plex labeling protocol.

Statistical methods for quantitative mass spectrometry proteomic experiments with labeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Oberg, Ann L; Mahoney, Douglas W

2012-01-01

Mass Spectrometry utilizing labeling allows multiple specimens to be subjected to mass spectrometry simultaneously. As a result, between-experiment variability is reduced. Here we describe use of fundamental concepts of statistical experimental design in the labeling framework in order to minimize variability and avoid biases. We demonstrate how to export data in the format that is most efficient for statistical analysis. We demonstrate how to assess the need for normalization, perform normalization, and check whether it worked. We describe how to build a model explaining the observed values and test for differential protein abundance along with descriptive statistics and measures of reliability of the findings. Concepts are illustrated through the use of three case studies utilizing the iTRAQ 4-plex labeling protocol.

The reliability of the software of the digital control system Nuclear Advantage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graae, T.; Engdahl, L.

1996-01-01

The ABB nuclear power control system Nuclear Advantage is a truly integrated control system. The integration of process control and safety control aims at achieving a common operator interface in order to simplify and thus improve control room ergonomics. The challenge is to design an integrated control system and at the same time ensure the functional separation between the independent safety subsystems as well as between the safety and the conventional sections. Software reliability is discussed and illustrated by statistical test results. It has proved to be a hundred times better than the reliability of the high-quality hardware. (orig.) [de

A New Method of Reliability Evaluation Based on Wavelet Information Entropy for Equipment Condition Identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Z J; Zhang, X L; Chen, X F

2012-01-01

Aiming at reliability evaluation of condition identification of mechanical equipment, it is necessary to analyze condition monitoring information. A new method of reliability evaluation based on wavelet information entropy extracted from vibration signals of mechanical equipment is proposed. The method is quite different from traditional reliability evaluation models that are dependent on probability statistics analysis of large number sample data. The vibration signals of mechanical equipment were analyzed by means of second generation wavelet package (SGWP). We take relative energy in each frequency band of decomposed signal that equals a percentage of the whole signal energy as probability. Normalized information entropy (IE) is obtained based on the relative energy to describe uncertainty of a system instead of probability. The reliability degree is transformed by the normalized wavelet information entropy. A successful application has been achieved to evaluate the assembled quality reliability for a kind of dismountable disk-drum aero-engine. The reliability degree indicates the assembled quality satisfactorily.

Using the Hemophilia Joint Health Score for assessment of children: Reliability of the Spanish version.

Science.gov (United States)

R, Cuesta-Barriuso; A, Torres-Ortuño; S, Pérez-Alenda; J, Carrasco Juan; F, Querol; J, Nieto-Munuera; Ja, López-Pina

2018-02-27

Numerous measuring instruments for the evaluation of hemophilic arthropathy have been developed. One of the most used systems is the Hemophilia Joint Health Score (HJHS) given its sensitivity to clinical changes appearing in the joints because of recurrent hemarthrosis. Assessing the interrater reliability, using the Spanish version of the HJHS (version 2.1) in children with hemophilia. Reliability study to assess the interrater reliability of the Spanish version of HJHS. A sample of 36 children aged 7-13 years diagnosed with hemophilia A or B was used. Two physiotherapists performed physical assessments with the Spanish version of the HJHS. Descriptive statistics (range, mean, standard deviation) and the analysis of interrater reliability were calculated. The interrater reliability was heterogeneous since the Kappa coefficient range (ĸ), although significant (p reliability of the Spanish population version of the HJHS is high. This scale should be used generically in evaluating musculoskeletal pediatric patients with hemophilia.

Monitoring of operational reliability of safety-related I and C subsystems at the Dukovany NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuchs, P.; Sagl, P.; Zlamal, P.

2007-01-01

First, the situation existing in the data base in 1999, i.e. before the monitoring and the operational reliability monitoring concept were introduced, is highlighted. The technique of data processing is described with focus on the assessment of the relevancy of the records, component failure rate monitoring, estimation of basic statistical parameters, evaluation of the feasibility of component failure (or failure latency) detection, assessment of the mean time to repair, FMEA of the basic components (relays end measuring chains) to establish spurious signals and dangerous failure ratio. The reliability assessment of the system functions is based on structural reliability calculations (common cause failures not included). The outcomes from the operational reliability monitoring are presented in the form of a representative set of data, graphic charts and results of system function reliability assessment. Prospects for upgrading the I and C operational reliability monitoring system to the benefit of NPP Dukovany operating economy (life cycle costs evaluation, spare parts planning, RCM application) are outlined. (author)

Reliability data banks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.

1991-01-01

Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)

An Introduction To Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Kyoung Su

1993-08-01

This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

Quality of nursing intensity data: inter-rater reliability of the patient classification after two decades in clinical use.

Science.gov (United States)

Liljamo, Pia; Kinnunen, Ulla-Mari; Ohtonen, Pasi; Saranto, Kaija

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to measure the inter-rater reliability of the Oulu Patient Classification and to discuss existing methods of reliability testing. The Oulu Patient Classification, part of the RAFAELA ® System, has been developed to assist nursing managers with the proper allocation of nursing resources. Due to the increased intensity of inpatient care during recent years, there is a need for the reliability testing of the classification, which has been in clinical use for 20 years. Retrospective statistical study. To test inter-rater reliability, a pair of nurses classified the same patients, without knowledge of each other's ratings, as a part of annually conducted standardization. Data on the parallel classifications (n = 19,997) was obtained from inpatient units (n = 32) with different specialties at a university hospital in Finland during 2010-2015. Parallel classification practices were also analysed. The reliability of the overall classification and its subareas were calculated using suitable statistical coefficients. Inter-rater reliability coefficients were a reliable or almost perfect means of considering the nursing intensity category and various practices, but there were detectable differences between subareas. The lowest agreement levels occurred in the subareas 'Planning and Coordination of Nursing Care' and 'Guiding of Care/Continued Care and Emotional Support'. There is a need to develop the descriptions of subareas and to clarify the related concepts. Precise nursing documentation can promote a high level of agreement and reliable results. The traditional overall proportion of agreement does not provide an adequate picture of reliability - weighted kappa coefficients should be used instead. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistical implications of adjustments of raw ILI (In-Line Inspection) data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Timashev, Svyatoslav A.; Bushinskaya, Anna V. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Ekaterinburg (Russian Federation). Ural Branch. Sciences and Engineering Center ' Reliability and Safety of Large Systems and Machines'

2009-07-01

The paper describes the implications and inferences that inevitably arise when deliberate 'adjustments' of raw MFL ILI data are made when delivering the final report on conducted ILI and/or performing defect sizing and reliability assessments needed for pipeline integrity management plans (IMPs). The root causes of data adjustments are discussed, main types of adjustments are classified and the consequences as related to pipeline residual life, reliability and safety are described. A comparison is performed between adjustment and the full statistical analysis (FSA), as applied to raw ILI and verification data. The consequences of defect data adjustment as related to pipeline reliability and POF and possible litigation issues are discussed. Case studies are presented which demonstrate the application of the FSA method to the results of ILI and verification measurements on pipelines that are located on three continents. Some assessments of the actual reliability of pipelines with defects are given. (author)

Harmonization by simulation: a contribution to comparable international migration statistics in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nowok, B.

2010-01-01

In today's globalized world, there is increasing demand for reliable and comparable statistics on international migration. This book contributes to a more profound understanding of the effect of definitional variations on the figures that are reported.The framework developed here for the

Test-retest reliability of an fMRI paradigm for studies of cardiovascular reactivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheu, Lei K; Jennings, J Richard; Gianaros, Peter J

2012-07-01

We examined the reliability of measures of fMRI, subjective, and cardiovascular reactions to standardized versions of a Stroop color-word task and a multisource interference task. A sample of 14 men and 12 women (30-49 years old) completed the tasks on two occasions, separated by a median of 88 days. The reliability of fMRI BOLD signal changes in brain areas engaged by the tasks was moderate, and aggregating fMRI BOLD signal changes across the tasks improved test-retest reliability metrics. These metrics included voxel-wise intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and overlap ratio statistics. Task-aggregated ratings of subjective arousal, valence, and control, as well as cardiovascular reactions evoked by the tasks showed ICCs of 0.57 to 0.87 (ps reliability. These findings support using these tasks as a battery for fMRI studies of cardiovascular reactivity. Copyright © 2012 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

The reliability-quality relationship for quality systems and quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg; Rahaman, Faiad; Urban, Jason M

2012-01-01

Engineering reliability typically refers to the probability that a system, or any of its components, will perform a required function for a stated period of time and under specified operating conditions. As such, reliability is inextricably linked with time-dependent quality concepts, such as maintaining a state of control and predicting the chances of losses from failures for quality risk management. Two popular current good manufacturing practice (cGMP) and quality risk management tools, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and root cause analysis (RCA) are examples of engineering reliability evaluations that link reliability with quality and risk. Current concepts in pharmaceutical quality and quality management systems call for more predictive systems for maintaining quality; yet, the current pharmaceutical manufacturing literature and guidelines are curiously silent on engineering quality. This commentary discusses the meaning of engineering reliability while linking the concept to quality systems and quality risk management. The essay also discusses the difference between engineering reliability and statistical (assay) reliability. The assurance of quality in a pharmaceutical product is no longer measured only "after the fact" of manufacturing. Rather, concepts of quality systems and quality risk management call for designing quality assurance into all stages of the pharmaceutical product life cycle. Interestingly, most assays for quality are essentially static and inform product quality over the life cycle only by being repeated over time. Engineering process reliability is the fundamental concept that is meant to anticipate quality failures over the life cycle of the product. Reliability is a well-developed theory and practice for other types of manufactured products and manufacturing processes. Thus, it is well known to be an appropriate index of manufactured product quality. This essay discusses the meaning of reliability and its linkages with quality

77 FR 64375 - Advisory Council on Transportation Statistics; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-19

... of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on the quality, reliability, consistency, objectivity, and...) Update on BTS data programs and future plans; (5) Council Members review and discussion of BTS programs... Freiberg, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE., Room E34-429, Washington, DC 20590, or faxed to (202) 366-3640. BTS...

How reliable must advanced nondestructive testing be? A concept for the prediction, validation and raised quality of NDT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nockemann, C.; Tillack, G.R.; Schnitger, D.; Heidt, H.

1995-01-01

A concept of the harmonic integration of the following three mainstays of the reliability of ndt is proposed: 1. Theoretical prediction of the reliability as a function of physical parameter by computer modelling of the test problem concerned and the ndt process; maximisation by variation of the parameters. 2. Experimental evaluation of the reliability of ndt processes by the application of statistical methods to test practice. 3. Increasing the reliability by the combination of several ndt methods in a standard DV environment and European interconnection and provision of a distributed databank system. International exchange of experience via telecommunication. (orig.) [de

Assuring the reliability of structural components - experimental data and non-destructive examination requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucia, A.C.

1984-01-01

The probability of failure of a structural component can be estimated by either statistical methods or a probabilistic structural reliability approach (where the failure is seen as a level crossing of a damage stochastic process which develops in space and in time). The probabilistic approach has the advantage that it makes available not only an absolute value of the failure probability but also a lot of additional information. The disadvantage of the probabilistic approach is its complexity. It is discussed for the following situations: reliability of a structural component, material properties, data for fatigue crack growth evaluation, a bench mark exercise on reactor pressure vessel failure probability computation, and non-destructive examination for assuring a given level of structural reliability. (U.K.)

Swarm of bees and particles algorithms in the problem of gradual failure reliability assurance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. F. Anop

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Probability-statistical framework of reliability theory uses models based on the chance failures analysis. These models are not functional and do not reflect relation of reliability characteristics to the object performance. At the same time, a significant part of the technical systems failures are gradual failures caused by degradation of the internal parameters of the system under the influence of various external factors.The paper shows how to provide the required level of reliability at the design stage using a functional model of a technical object. Paper describes the method for solving this problem under incomplete initial information, when there is no information about the patterns of technological deviations and degradation parameters, and the considered system model is a \\black box" one.To this end, we formulate the problem of optimal parametric synthesis. It lies in the choice of the nominal values of the system parameters to satisfy the requirements for its operation and take into account the unavoidable deviations of the parameters from their design values during operation. As an optimization criterion in this case we propose to use a deterministic geometric criterion \\reliability reserve", which is the minimum distance measured along the coordinate directions from the nominal parameter value to the acceptability region boundary rather than statistical values.The paper presents the results of the application of heuristic swarm intelligence methods to solve the formulated optimization problem. Efficiency of particle swarm algorithms and swarm of bees one compared with undirected random search algorithm in solving a number of test optimal parametric synthesis problems in three areas: reliability, convergence rate and operating time. The study suggests that the use of a swarm of bees method for solving the problem of the technical systems gradual failure reliability ensuring is preferred because of the greater flexibility of the

Research on Control Method Based on Real-Time Operational Reliability Evaluation for Space Manipulator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yifan Wang

2014-05-01

Full Text Available A control method based on real-time operational reliability evaluation for space manipulator is presented for improving the success rate of a manipulator during the execution of a task. In this paper, a method for quantitative analysis of operational reliability is given when manipulator is executing a specified task; then a control model which could control the quantitative operational reliability is built. First, the control process is described by using a state space equation. Second, process parameters are estimated in real time using Bayesian method. Third, the expression of the system's real-time operational reliability is deduced based on the state space equation and process parameters which are estimated using Bayesian method. Finally, a control variable regulation strategy which considers the cost of control is given based on the Theory of Statistical Process Control. It is shown via simulations that this method effectively improves the operational reliability of space manipulator control system.

Usage models in reliability assessment of software-based systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haapanen, P.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland); Korhonen, J. [VTT Electronics, Espoo (Finland)

1997-04-01

This volume in the OHA-project report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in the OHA-project report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. In this report the issues related to the statistical testing and especially automated test case generation are considered. The goal is to find an efficient method for building usage models for the generation of statistically significant set of test cases and to gather practical experiences from this method by applying it in a case study. The scope of the study also includes the tool support for the method, as the models may grow quite large and complex. (32 refs., 30 figs.).

Usage models in reliability assessment of software-based systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haapanen, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Korhonen, J.

1997-04-01

This volume in the OHA-project report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in the OHA-project report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. In this report the issues related to the statistical testing and especially automated test case generation are considered. The goal is to find an efficient method for building usage models for the generation of statistically significant set of test cases and to gather practical experiences from this method by applying it in a case study. The scope of the study also includes the tool support for the method, as the models may grow quite large and complex. (32 refs., 30 figs.)

Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2018-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

Reliability-based condition assessment of steel containment and liners

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellingwood, B.; Bhattacharya, B.; Zheng, R.

1996-11-01

Steel containments and liners in nuclear power plants may be exposed to aggressive environments that may cause their strength and stiffness to decrease during the plant service life. Among the factors recognized as having the potential to cause structural deterioration are uniform, pitting or crevice corrosion; fatigue, including crack initiation and propagation to fracture; elevated temperature; and irradiation. The evaluation of steel containments and liners for continued service must provide assurance that they are able to withstand future extreme loads during the service period with a level of reliability that is sufficient for public safety. Rational methodologies to provide such assurances can be developed using modern structural reliability analysis principles that take uncertainties in loading, strength, and degradation resulting from environmental factors into account. The research described in this report is in support of the Steel Containments and Liners Program being conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The research demonstrates the feasibility of using reliability analysis as a tool for performing condition assessments and service life predictions of steel containments and liners. Mathematical models that describe time-dependent changes in steel due to aggressive environmental factors are identified, and statistical data supporting the use of these models in time-dependent reliability analysis are summarized. The analysis of steel containment fragility is described, and simple illustrations of the impact on reliability of structural degradation are provided. The role of nondestructive evaluation in time-dependent reliability analysis, both in terms of defect detection and sizing, is examined. A Markov model provides a tool for accounting for time-dependent changes in damage condition of a structural component or system. 151 refs

Performance of intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) as a reliability index under various distributions in scale reliability studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Shraddha; Bastero-Caballero, Rowena F; Sun, Yijun; Zhu, Ray; Murphy, Diane K; Hardas, Bhushan; Koch, Gary

2018-04-29

Many published scale validation studies determine inter-rater reliability using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). However, the use of this statistic must consider its advantages, limitations, and applicability. This paper evaluates how interaction of subject distribution, sample size, and levels of rater disagreement affects ICC and provides an approach for obtaining relevant ICC estimates under suboptimal conditions. Simulation results suggest that for a fixed number of subjects, ICC from the convex distribution is smaller than ICC for the uniform distribution, which in turn is smaller than ICC for the concave distribution. The variance component estimates also show that the dissimilarity of ICC among distributions is attributed to the study design (ie, distribution of subjects) component of subject variability and not the scale quality component of rater error variability. The dependency of ICC on the distribution of subjects makes it difficult to compare results across reliability studies. Hence, it is proposed that reliability studies should be designed using a uniform distribution of subjects because of the standardization it provides for representing objective disagreement. In the absence of uniform distribution, a sampling method is proposed to reduce the non-uniformity. In addition, as expected, high levels of disagreement result in low ICC, and when the type of distribution is fixed, any increase in the number of subjects beyond a moderately large specification such as n = 80 does not have a major impact on ICC. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reliability calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, K.E.

1986-03-01

Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

Application of modern reliability database techniques to military system data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunea, Cornel; Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Sarkani, Shahram; Chang, H.-C.

2008-01-01

This paper focuses on analysis techniques of modern reliability databases, with an application to military system data. The analysis of military system data base consists of the following steps: clean the data and perform operation on it in order to obtain good estimators; present simple plots of data; analyze the data with statistical and probabilistic methods. Each step is dealt with separately and the main results are presented. Competing risks theory is advocated as the mathematical support for the analysis. The general framework of competing risks theory is presented together with simple independent and dependent competing risks models available in literature. These models are used to identify the reliability and maintenance indicators required by the operating personnel. Model selection is based on graphical interpretation of plotted data

First Assessment of Reliability Data for the LHC Accelerator and Detector Cryogenic System Components

CERN Document Server

Perinic, G; Alonso-Canella, I; Balle, C; Barth, K; Bel, J F; Benda, V; Bremer, J; Brodzinski, K; Casas-Cubillos, J; Cuccuru, G; Cugnet, M; Delikaris, D; Delruelle, N; Dufay-Chanat, L; Fabre, C; Ferlin, G; Fluder, C; Gavard, E; Girardot, R; Haug, F; Herblin, L; Junker, S; Klabi , T; Knoops, S; Lamboy, J P; Legrand, D; Metselaar, J; Park, A; Perin, A; Pezzetti, M; Penacoba-Fernandez, G; Pirotte, O; Rogez, E; Suraci, A; Stewart, L; Tavian, L J; Tovar-Gonzalez, A; Van Weelderen, R; Vauthier, N; Vullierme, B; Wagner, U

2012-01-01

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) cryogenic system comprises eight independent refrigeration and distribution systems that supply the eight 3.3 km long accelerator sectors with cryogenic refrigeration power as well as four refrigeration systems for the needs of the detectors ATLAS and CMS. In order to ensure the highest possible reliability of the installations, it is important to apply a reliability centred approach for the maintenance. Even though large scale cryogenic refrigeration exists since the mid 20th century, very little third party reliability data is available today. CERN has started to collect data with its computer aided maintenance management system (CAMMS) in 2009, when the accelerator has gone into normal operation. This paper presents the reliability observations from the operation and the maintenance side, as well as statistical data collected by the means of the CAMMS system.

Recent Reliability Reporting Practices in "Psychological Assessment": Recognizing the People behind the Data

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Carlton E.; Chen, Cynthia E.; Helms, Janet E.; Henze, Kevin T.

2011-01-01

Helms, Henze, Sass, and Mifsud (2006) defined good practices for internal consistency reporting, interpretation, and analysis consistent with an alpha-as-data perspective. Their viewpoint (a) expands on previous arguments that reliability coefficients are group-level summary statistics of samples' responses rather than stable properties of scales…

The advantages of reliability centered maintenance for standby safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dam, R.F.; Ayazzudin, S.; Nickerson, J.H.; DeLong, A.I.

2002-01-01

Full text: On standby safety systems, nuclear plants have to balance the requirements of demonstrating the reliability of each system, while maintaining the system and plant availability. With the goal of demonstrating statistical reliability, these systems have extensive testing programs, which often makes the system unavailable and this can impact the plant capacity. The inputs to the process are often safety and regulatory related, resulting in programs that provide a high level of scrutiny on the systems being considered. In such cases, the value of the application of a maintenance optimization strategy, such as Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), is questioned. Part of the question stems from the use of the word 'Reliability' in RCM, which implies a level of redundancy when applied to a system maintenance program driven by reliability requirements. A deeper look at the RCM process, however, shows that RCM has the goal of ensuring that the system operates 'reliably' through the application of an integrated maintenance strategy. This is a subtle, but important distinction. Although the system reliability requirements are an important part of the strategy evaluation, RCM provides a broader context where testing is only one part of an overall strategy focused on ensuring that component function is maintained through a combination of monitoring technologies (including testing), predictive techniques, and intrusive maintenance strategies. Each strategy is targeted to identify known component degradation mechanisms. The conclusion is that a maintenance program driven by reliability requirements will tend to have testing defined at a frequency intended to support the needed statistics. The testing demonstrates that the desired function is available today. Maintenance driven by functional requirements and known failure causes, as developed through an RCM assessment, will have frequencies tied to industry experience with components and rely on a higher degree of

The reliability of AO classification for distal radius fracture, using CT findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakanishi, Yasuaki; Ono, Hiroshi; Furuta, Kazuhiko; Fujitani, Ryoutarou; Ota, Hiroyoshi

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the reliability of the AO (Association for the Study of Internal Fixation) classification of distal radius fracture, using plain radiographs and 2 cross-sectional computed tomographic (CT) surface images. Five observers independently classified 32 distal radius fractures into 9 groups under AO classification. We established 4 methods for observation. First, using only two-directional radiographs; second, four-directional radiographs; third, CT (axial view) with four-directional radiographs; and fourth, CT (axial and sagittal views) with four-directional radiographs. Kappa statistics were used to establish the relative level of agreement between the observers. Interobserver reliability was poor in both first and second methods in which only plain radiographs were used (κ=0.30 and 0.23, respectively). Furthermore, reliability did not increase in the third method with the addition of 1 CT surface image (κ=0.29). In the fourth method, with the addition of 2 cross-sectional CT surface images, the reliability increased to a moderate level (κ=0.44). Interobserver reliability of the AO system of the classification of distal radius fractures was observed on using 2 cross-sectional CT surface images with four-directional radiographs. (author)

Incorporating Nonparametric Statistics into Delphi Studies in Library and Information Science

Science.gov (United States)

Ju, Boryung; Jin, Tao

2013-01-01

Introduction: The Delphi technique is widely used in library and information science research. However, many researchers in the field fail to employ standard statistical tests when using this technique. This makes the technique vulnerable to criticisms of its reliability and validity. The general goal of this article is to explore how…

Reliability Evaluation on Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 617 for a Very High Temperature Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Woo-Gon; Hong, Sung-Deok; Kim, Yong-Wan; Park, Jae-Young; Kim, Seon-Jin

2012-01-01

This paper evaluates the reliability of creep rupture life under service conditions of Alloy 617, which is considered as one of the candidate materials for use in a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) system. A Z-parameter, which represents the deviation of creep rupture data from the master curve, was used for the reliability analysis of the creep rupture data of Alloy 617. A Service-condition Creep Rupture Interference (SCRI) model, which can consider both the scattering of the creep rupture data and the fluctuations of temperature and stress under any service conditions, was also used for evaluating the reliability of creep rupture life. The statistical analysis showed that the scattering of creep rupture data based on Z-parameter was supported by normal distribution. The values of reliability decreased rapidly with increasing amplitudes of temperature and stress fluctuations. The results established that the reliability decreased with an increasing service time.

Workshop on Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications

CERN Document Server

1988-01-01

In this book problems related to the choice of models in such diverse fields as regression, covariance structure, time series analysis and multinomial experiments are discussed. The emphasis is on the statistical implications for model assessment when the assessment is done with the same data that generated the model. This is a problem of long standing, notorious for its difficulty. Some contributors discuss this problem in an illuminating way. Others, and this is a truly novel feature, investigate systematically whether sample re-use methods like the bootstrap can be used to assess the quality of estimators or predictors in a reliable way given the initial model uncertainty. The book should prove to be valuable for advanced practitioners and statistical methodologists alike.

Statistical analysis of field data for aircraft warranties

Science.gov (United States)

Lakey, Mary J.

Air Force and Navy maintenance data collection systems were researched to determine their scientific applicability to the warranty process. New and unique algorithms were developed to extract failure distributions which were then used to characterize how selected families of equipment typically fails. Families of similar equipment were identified in terms of function, technology and failure patterns. Statistical analyses and applications such as goodness-of-fit test, maximum likelihood estimation and derivation of confidence intervals for the probability density function parameters were applied to characterize the distributions and their failure patterns. Statistical and reliability theory, with relevance to equipment design and operational failures were also determining factors in characterizing the failure patterns of the equipment families. Inferences about the families with relevance to warranty needs were then made.

Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soszynska, Joanna, E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.p [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

2010-02-15

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soszynska, Joanna

2010-01-01

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

Analysis Testing of Sociocultural Factors Influence on Human Reliability within Sociotechnical Systems: The Algerian Oil Companies.

Science.gov (United States)

Laidoune, Abdelbaki; Rahal Gharbi, Med El Hadi

2016-09-01

The influence of sociocultural factors on human reliability within an open sociotechnical systems is highlighted. The design of such systems is enhanced by experience feedback. The study was focused on a survey related to the observation of working cases, and by processing of incident/accident statistics and semistructured interviews in the qualitative part. In order to consolidate the study approach, we considered a schedule for the purpose of standard statistical measurements. We tried to be unbiased by supporting an exhaustive list of all worker categories including age, sex, educational level, prescribed task, accountability level, etc. The survey was reinforced by a schedule distributed to 300 workers belonging to two oil companies. This schedule comprises 30 items related to six main factors that influence human reliability. Qualitative observations and schedule data processing had shown that the sociocultural factors can negatively and positively influence operator behaviors. The explored sociocultural factors influence the human reliability both in qualitative and quantitative manners. The proposed model shows how reliability can be enhanced by some measures such as experience feedback based on, for example, safety improvements, training, and information. With that is added the continuous systems improvements to improve sociocultural reality and to reduce negative behaviors.

Interactive reliability assessment using an integrated reliability data bank

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allan, R.N.; Whitehead, A.M.

1986-01-01

The logical structure, techniques and practical application of a computer-aided technique based on a microcomputer using floppy disc Random Access Files is described. This interactive computational technique is efficient if the reliability prediction program is coupled directly to a relevant source of data to create an integrated reliability assessment/reliability data bank system. (DG)

Physics-Based Stress Corrosion Cracking Component Reliability Model cast in an R7-Compatible Cumulative Damage Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Layton, Robert F.; Toloczko, Mychailo B.; Johnson, Kenneth I.; Sanborn, Scott E.

2011-07-01

This is a working report drafted under the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, describing statistical models of passives component reliabilities.

Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Valentine, Mark; Boyer, Roger; Cross, Bob; Hamlin, Teri; Roelant, Henk; Stewart, Mike; Bigler, Mark; Winter, Scott; Reistle, Bruce; Heydorn,Dick

2009-01-01

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts

Reliability of ultrasonographic measurements in suspected patients of developmental dysplasia of the hip and correlation with the acetabular index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cem Copuroglu

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Ultrasonography is accepted as a useful imaging modality in the early detection of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH. Early detection and early treatment of DDH prevents hip dislocation and related physical, social, economic, and psychological problems. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability of ultrasonographic and roentgenographic measurements measured by seven different observers. Materials and Methods: The alpha angles of 66 hips in 33 patients were measured using the Graf method by seven different observers. Acetabular index degrees on plane roentgenograms were measured in order to assess the correlation between the ultrasonographic alpha angle and the radiographic acetabular index, which both show the bony acetabular depth, retrospectively. Results: The interclass correlation coefficient, measuring the interobserver reliability, was high and statistically significant for the ultrasonographic measurements. There was a negative correlation between the alpha angle and the acetabular index. Conclusions: Ultrasonography, when applied properly, is a reliable technique between different observers, in the diagnosis and follow up of DDH. When assessed concomitantly with the roentgenographic measurements, the results are reliable and statistically meaningful.

Reliability-based design methods to determine the extreme response distribution of offshore wind turbines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cheng, P.W.; Bussel, van G.J.W.; Kuik, van G.A.M.; Vugts, J.H.

2003-01-01

In this article a reliability-based approach to determine the extreme response distribution of offshore wind turbines is presented. Based on hindcast data, the statistical description of the offshore environment is formulated. The contour lines of different return periods can be determined.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will

Reliability of the ECHOWS Tool for Assessment of Patient Interviewing Skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Boissonnault, Jill S; Evans, Kerrie; Tuttle, Neil; Hetzel, Scott J; Boissonnault, William G

2016-04-01

History taking is an important component of patient/client management. Assessment of student history-taking competency can be achieved via a standardized tool. The ECHOWS tool has been shown to be valid with modest intrarater reliability in a previous study but did not demonstrate sufficient power to definitively prove its stability. The purposes of this study were: (1) to assess the reliability of the ECHOWS tool for student assessment of patient interviewing skills and (2) to determine whether the tool discerns between novice and experienced skill levels. A reliability and construct validity assessment was conducted. Three faculty members from the United States and Australia scored videotaped histories from standardized patients taken by students and experienced clinicians from each of these countries. The tapes were scored twice, 3 to 6 weeks apart. Reliability was assessed using interclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and repeated measures. Analysis of variance models assessed the ability of the tool to discern between novice and experienced skill levels. The ECHOWS tool showed excellent intrarater reliability (ICC [3,1]=.74-.89) and good interrater reliability (ICC [2,1]=.55) as a whole. The summary of performance (S) section showed poor interrater reliability (ICC [2,1]=.27). There was no statistical difference in performance on the tool between novice and experienced clinicians. A possible ceiling effect may occur when standardized patients are not coached to provide complex and obtuse responses to interviewer questions. Variation in familiarity with the ECHOWS tool and in use of the online training may have influenced scoring of the S section. The ECHOWS tool demonstrates excellent intrarater reliability and moderate interrater reliability. Sufficient training with the tool prior to student assessment is recommended. The S section must evolve in order to provide a more discerning measure of interviewing skills. © 2016 American Physical Therapy

76 FR 23222 - Electric Reliability Organization Interpretation of Transmission Operations Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-26

....3d 1342 (DC Cir. 2009). \\5\\ Mandatory Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System, Order No. 693... Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System. Action: FERC-725A. OMB Control No.: 1902-0244. Respondents...] Electric Reliability Organization Interpretation of Transmission Operations Reliability AGENCY: Federal...

Reliability of joint count assessment in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Peter P; Gossec, Laure; Mak, Anselm; March, Lyn

2014-06-01

Joint counts are central to the assessment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) but reliability is an issue. To evaluate the reliability and agreement of joint counts (intra-observer and inter-observer) by health care professionals (physicians, nurses, and metrologists) and patients in RA, and the impact of training and standardization on joint count reliability through a systematic literature review. Articles reporting joint count reliability or agreement in RA in PubMed, EMBase, and the Cochrane library between 1960 and 2012 were selected. Data were extracted regarding tender joint counts (TJCs) and swollen joint counts (SJCs) derived by physicians, metrologists, or patients for intra-observer and inter-observer reliability. In addition, methods and effects of training or standardization were extracted. Statistics expressing reliability such as intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were extracted. Data analysis was primarily descriptive due to high heterogeneity. Twenty-eight studies on health care professionals (HCP) and 20 studies on patients were included. Intra-observer reliability for TJCs and SJCs was good for HCPs and patients (range of ICC: 0.49-0.98). Inter-observer reliability between HCPs for TJCs was higher than for SJCs (range of ICC: 0.64-0.88 vs. 0.29-0.98). Patient inter-observer reliability with HCPs as comparators was better for TJCs (range of ICC: 0.31-0.91) compared to SJCs (0.16-0.64). Nine studies (7 with HCPs and 2 with patients) evaluated consensus or training, with improvement in reliability of TJCs but conflicting evidence for SJCs. Intra- and inter-observer reliability was high for TJCs for HCPs and patients: among all groups, reliability was better for TJCs than SJCs. Inter-observer reliability of SJCs was poorer for patients than HCPs. Data were inconclusive regarding the potential for training to improve SJC reliability. Overall, the results support further evaluation for patient-reported joint counts as an outcome measure. © 2013

Reliability and Validity of the Turkish Version of the Job Performance Scale Instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Harmanci Seren, Arzu Kader; Tuna, Rujnan; Eskin Bacaksiz, Feride

2018-02-01

Objective measurement of the job performance of nursing staff using valid and reliable instruments is important in the evaluation of healthcare quality. A current, valid, and reliable instrument that specifically measures the performance of nurses is required for this purpose. The aim of this study was to determine the validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the Job Performance Instrument. This study used a methodological design and a sample of 240 nurses working at different units in four hospitals in Istanbul, Turkey. A descriptive data form, the Job Performance Scale, and the Employee Performance Scale were used to collect data. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21.0 and LISREL Version 8.51. On the basis of the data analysis, the instrument was revised. Some items were deleted, and subscales were combined. The Turkish version of the Job Performance Instrument was determined to be valid and reliable to measure the performance of nurses. The instrument is suitable for evaluating current nursing roles.

Statistical cluster analysis and diagnosis of nuclear system level performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teichmann, T.; Levine, M.M.; Samanta, P.K.; Kato, W.Y.

1985-01-01

The complexity of individual nuclear power plants and the importance of maintaining reliable and safe operations makes it desirable to complement the deterministic analyses of these plants by corresponding statistical surveys and diagnoses. Based on such investigations, one can then explore, statistically, the anticipation, prevention, and when necessary, the control of such failures and malfunctions. This paper, and the accompanying one by Samanta et al., describe some of the initial steps in exploring the feasibility of setting up such a program on an integrated and global (industry-wide) basis. The conceptual statistical and data framework was originally outlined in BNL/NUREG-51609, NUREG/CR-3026, and the present work aims at showing how some important elements might be implemented in a practical way (albeit using hypothetical or simulated data)

Dataset on statistical analysis of editorial board composition of Hindawi journals indexed in Emerging sources citation index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hilary I. Okagbue

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This data article contains the statistical analysis of the total, percentage and distribution of editorial board composition of 111 Hindawi journals indexed in Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI across the continents. The reliability of the data was shown using correlation, goodness-of-fit test, analysis of variance and statistical variability tests. Keywords: Hindawi, Bibliometrics, Data analysis, ESCI, Random, Smart campus, Web of science, Ranking analytics, Statistics

Component reliability data for use in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-10-01

Generic component reliability data is indispensable in any probabilistic safety analysis. It is not realistic to assume that all possible component failures and failure modes modeled in a PSA would be available from the operating experience of a specific plant in a statistically meaningful way. The degree that generic data is used in PSAs varies from case to case. Some studies are totally based on generic data while others use generic data as prior information to be specialized by plant specific data. Most studies, however, finally use a combination where data for certain components come from generic data sources and others from Bayesian updating. The IAEA effort to compile a generic component reliability data base aimed at facilitating the use of data available in the literature and at highlighting pitfalls which deserve special consideration. It was also intended to complement the fault tree and event tree package (PSAPACK) and to facilitate its use. Moreover, it should be noted, that the IAEA has recently initiated a Coordinated Research Program in Reliability Data Collection, Retrieval and Analysis. In this framework the issues identified as most affecting the quality of existing data bases would be addressed. This report presents the results of a compilation made from the specialized literature and includes reliability data for components usually considered in PSA

Reliability and validity of the workplace social distance scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshii, Hatsumi; Mandai, Nozomu; Saito, Hidemitsu; Akazawa, Kouhei

2014-10-29

Self-stigma, defined by a negative attitude toward oneself combined with the consciousness of being a target of prejudice, is a critical problem for psychiatric patients. Self-stigma studies among psychiatric patients have indicated that high stigma is predictive of detrimental effects such as the delay of treatment and decreases in social participation in patients, and levels of self-stigma should be statistically evaluated. In this study, we developed the Workplace Social Distance Scale (WSDS), rephrasing the eight items of the Japanese version of the Social Distance Scale (SDSJ) to apply to the work setting in Japan. We examined the reliability and validity of the WSDS among 83 psychiatric patients. Factor analysis extracted three factors from the scale items: "work relations," "shallow relationships," and "employment." These factors are similar to the assessment factors of the SDSJ. Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the WSDS was 0.753. The split-half reliability for the WSDS was 0.801, indicating significant correlations. In addition, the WSDS was significantly correlated with the SDSJ. These findings suggest that the WSDS represents an approximation of self-stigma in the workplace among psychiatric patients. Our study assessed the reliability and validity of the WSDS for measuring self-stigma in Japan. Future studies should investigate the reliability and validity of the scale in other countries.

Determining Gate Count Reliability in a Library Setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey Phillips

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Objective – Patron counts are a common form of measurement for library assessment. To develop accurate library statistics, it is necessary to determine any differences between various counting devices. A yearlong comparison between card reader turnstiles and laser gate counters in a university library sought to offer a standard percentage of variance and provide suggestions to increase the precision of counts. Methods – The collection of library exit counts identified the differences between turnstile and laser gate counter data. Statistical software helped to eliminate any inaccuracies in the collection of turnstile data, allowing this data set to be the base for comparison. Collection intervals were randomly determined and demonstrated periods of slow, average, and heavy traffic. Results – After analyzing 1,039,766 patron visits throughout a year, the final totals only showed a difference of .43% (.0043 between the two devices. The majority of collection periods did not exceed a difference of 3% between the counting instruments. Conclusion – Turnstiles card readers and laser gate counters provide similar levels of reliability when measuring patron activity. Each system has potential counting inaccuracies, but several methods exist to create more precise totals. Turnstile card readers are capable of offering greater detail involving patron identity, but their high cost makes them inaccessible for libraries with lower budgets. This makes laser gate counters an affordable alternative for reliable patron counting in an academic library.

76 FR 23171 - Electric Reliability Organization Interpretations of Interconnection Reliability Operations and...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-26

... Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System, Order No. 693, FERC Stats. & Regs. ] 31,242, order on reh'g...-Power System reliability may request an interpretation of a Reliability Standard.\\7\\ The ERO's standards... information in its reliability assessments. The Reliability Coordinator must monitor Bulk Electric System...

A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Lizhi; Pan, Rong; Li, Xiaoyang; Jiang, Tongmin

2013-01-01

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is a common approach in reliability prediction, especially for products with high reliability. However, oftentimes the laboratory condition of ADT is different from the field condition; thus, to predict field failure, one need to calibrate the prediction made by using ADT data. In this paper a Bayesian evaluation method is proposed to integrate the ADT data from laboratory with the failure data from field. Calibration factors are introduced to calibrate the difference between the lab and the field conditions so as to predict a product's actual field reliability more accurately. The information fusion and statistical inference procedure are carried out through a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is demonstrated by two examples and the sensitivity analysis to prior distribution assumption

The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Zio, Enrico

2013-01-01

Monte Carlo simulation is one of the best tools for performing realistic analysis of complex systems as it allows most of the limiting assumptions on system behavior to be relaxed. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis comprehensively illustrates the Monte Carlo simulation method and its application to reliability and system engineering. Readers are given a sound understanding of the fundamentals of Monte Carlo sampling and simulation and its application for realistic system modeling.   Whilst many of the topics rely on a high-level understanding of calculus, probability and statistics, simple academic examples will be provided in support to the explanation of the theoretical foundations to facilitate comprehension of the subject matter. Case studies will be introduced to provide the practical value of the most advanced techniques.   This detailed approach makes The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis a key reference for senior undergra...

Reliability physics and engineering time-to-failure modeling

CERN Document Server

McPherson, J W

2013-01-01

Reliability Physics and Engineering provides critically important information that is needed for designing and building reliable cost-effective products. Key features include:  ·       Materials/Device Degradation ·       Degradation Kinetics ·       Time-To-Failure Modeling ·       Statistical Tools ·       Failure-Rate Modeling ·       Accelerated Testing ·       Ramp-To-Failure Testing ·       Important Failure Mechanisms for Integrated Circuits ·       Important Failure Mechanisms for  Mechanical Components ·       Conversion of Dynamic  Stresses into Static Equivalents ·       Small Design Changes Producing Major Reliability Improvements ·       Screening Methods ·       Heat Generation and Dissipation ·       Sampling Plans and Confidence Intervals This textbook includes numerous example problems with solutions. Also, exercise problems along with the answers are included at the end of each chapter. Relia...

Interrater reliability of the mind map assessment rubric in a cohort of medical students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zipp Genevieve

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Learning strategies are thinking tools that students can use to actively acquire information. Examples of learning strategies include mnemonics, charts, and maps. One strategy that may help students master the tsunami of information presented in medical school is the mind map learning strategy. Currently, there is no valid and reliable rubric to grade mind maps and this may contribute to their underutilization in medicine. Because concept maps and mind maps engage learners similarly at a metacognitive level, a valid and reliable concept map assessment scoring system was adapted to form the mind map assessment rubric (MMAR. The MMAR can assess mind map depth based upon concept-links, cross-links, hierarchies, examples, pictures, and colors. The purpose of this study was to examine interrater reliability of the MMAR. Methods This exploratory study was conducted at a US medical school as part of a larger investigation on learning strategies. Sixty-six (N = 66 first-year medical students were given a 394-word text passage followed by a 30-minute presentation on mind mapping. After the presentation, subjects were again given the text passage and instructed to create mind maps based upon the passage. The mind maps were collected and independently scored using the MMAR by 3 examiners. Interrater reliability was measured using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC statistic. Statistics were calculated using SPSS version 12.0 (Chicago, IL. Results Analysis of the mind maps revealed the following: concept-links ICC = .05 (95% CI, -.42 to .38, cross-links ICC = .58 (95% CI, .37 to .73, hierarchies ICC = .23 (95% CI, -.15 to .50, examples ICC = .53 (95% CI, .29 to .69, pictures ICC = .86 (95% CI, .79 to .91, colors ICC = .73 (95% CI, .59 to .82, and total score ICC = .86 (95% CI, .79 to .91. Conclusion The high ICC value for total mind map score indicates strong MMAR interrater reliability. Pictures and colors demonstrated moderate

Interrater reliability of the mind map assessment rubric in a cohort of medical students.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Antoni, Anthony V; Zipp, Genevieve Pinto; Olson, Valerie G

2009-04-28

Learning strategies are thinking tools that students can use to actively acquire information. Examples of learning strategies include mnemonics, charts, and maps. One strategy that may help students master the tsunami of information presented in medical school is the mind map learning strategy. Currently, there is no valid and reliable rubric to grade mind maps and this may contribute to their underutilization in medicine. Because concept maps and mind maps engage learners similarly at a metacognitive level, a valid and reliable concept map assessment scoring system was adapted to form the mind map assessment rubric (MMAR). The MMAR can assess mind map depth based upon concept-links, cross-links, hierarchies, examples, pictures, and colors. The purpose of this study was to examine interrater reliability of the MMAR. This exploratory study was conducted at a US medical school as part of a larger investigation on learning strategies. Sixty-six (N = 66) first-year medical students were given a 394-word text passage followed by a 30-minute presentation on mind mapping. After the presentation, subjects were again given the text passage and instructed to create mind maps based upon the passage. The mind maps were collected and independently scored using the MMAR by 3 examiners. Interrater reliability was measured using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) statistic. Statistics were calculated using SPSS version 12.0 (Chicago, IL). Analysis of the mind maps revealed the following: concept-links ICC = .05 (95% CI, -.42 to .38), cross-links ICC = .58 (95% CI, .37 to .73), hierarchies ICC = .23 (95% CI, -.15 to .50), examples ICC = .53 (95% CI, .29 to .69), pictures ICC = .86 (95% CI, .79 to .91), colors ICC = .73 (95% CI, .59 to .82), and total score ICC = .86 (95% CI, .79 to .91). The high ICC value for total mind map score indicates strong MMAR interrater reliability. Pictures and colors demonstrated moderate to strong interrater reliability. We conclude that the

Racial/ethnic variation in the reliability of DSM-IV pathological gambling disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham-Williams, Renee M; Ostmann, Emily L; Spitznagel, Edward L; Books, Samantha J

2007-07-01

Racial/ethnic disparities in mental disorders, including pathological gambling disorder (PGD), may be either real or artifacts of how they are conceptualized and measured. We aimed to assess racial/ethnic variation in the reliability of self-reported lifetime PGD determined by meeting > or = 5 criteria of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Using community advertising, we recruited 15-85-year-old Caucasians (n = 225) and African (American/other minorities (n = 87), who had gambled more than 5 times lifetime), for 2 interviews, held 1 week apart, about gambling and associated behaviors. Results indicate substantial to almost-perfect DSM-IV PGD reliability for Caucasians (kappa = 0.82) and African Americans/other minorities (kappa = 0.68). Reliability for symptoms and for game-specific disorders was fair to almost perfect (kappa = 0.37-0.90). After adjusting results for confounding variables and multiple comparisons, racial/ethnic variation in PGD and game-specific reliability failed to persist. Implications exist for increased attention to screening and prevention efforts critical to reducing racial/ethnic disparities in PGD prevalence.

Development and reliability testing of a food store observation form.

Science.gov (United States)

Rimkus, Leah; Powell, Lisa M; Zenk, Shannon N; Han, Euna; Ohri-Vachaspati, Punam; Pugach, Oksana; Barker, Dianne C; Resnick, Elissa A; Quinn, Christopher M; Myllyluoma, Jaana; Chaloupka, Frank J

2013-01-01

To develop a reliable food store observational data collection instrument to be used for measuring product availability, pricing, and promotion. Observational data collection. A total of 120 food stores (26 supermarkets, 34 grocery stores, 54 gas/convenience stores, and 6 mass merchandise stores) in the Chicago metropolitan statistical area. Inter-rater reliability for product availability, pricing, and promotion measures on a food store observational data collection instrument. Cohen's kappa coefficient and proportion of overall agreement for dichotomous variables and intra-class correlation coefficient for continuous variables. Inter-rater reliability, as measured by average kappa coefficient, was 0.84 for food and beverage product availability measures, 0.80 for interior store characteristics, and 0.70 for exterior store characteristics. For continuous measures, average intra-class correlation coefficient was 0.82 for product pricing measures; 0.90 for counts of fresh, frozen, and canned fruit and vegetable options; and 0.85 for counts of advertisements on the store exterior and property. The vast majority of measures demonstrated substantial or almost perfect agreement. Although some items may require revision, results suggest that the instrument may be used to reliably measure the food store environment. Copyright © 2013 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

China's energy statistics in a global context: A methodology to develop regional energy balances for East, Central and West China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mischke, Peggy

2013-01-01

for research and policy analysis. An improved understanding of the quality and reliability of Chinese economic and energy data is becoming more important to to understanding global energy markets and future greenhouse gas emissions. China’s national statistical system to track such changes is however still...... developing and, in some instances, energy data remain unavailable in the public domain. This working paper discusses China’s energy and economic statistics in view of identifying suitable indicators to develop a simplified regional energy systems for China from a variety of publicly available data. As China......’s national statistical system continuous to be debated and criticised in terms of data quality, comparability and reliability, an overview of the milestones, status and main issues of China’s energy statistics is given. In a next step, the energy balance format of the International Energy Agency is used...

Statistical analysis of the Ft. Calhoun reactor coolant pump system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patel, Bimal; Heising, C.D.

1997-01-01

In engineering science, statistical quality control techniques have traditionally been applied to control manufacturing processes. An application to commercial nuclear power plant maintenance and control is presented that can greatly improve plant safety. As a demonstration of such an approach, a specific system is analyzed: the reactor coolant pumps (RCPs) of the Ft. Calhoun nuclear power plant. This research uses capability analysis, Shewhart X-bar, R charts, canonical correlation methods, and design of experiments to analyze the process for the state of statistical control. The results obtained show that six out of ten parameters are under control specification limits and four parameters are not in the state of statistical control. The analysis shows that statistical process control methods can be applied as an early warning system capable of identifying significant equipment problems well in advance of traditional control room alarm indicators. Such a system would provide operators with ample time to respond to possible emergency situations and thus improve plant safety and reliability. (Author)

Validity, Reliability, and the Questionable Role of Psychometrics in Plastic Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Summary: This report examines the meaning of validity and reliability and the role of psychometrics in plastic surgery. Study titles increasingly include the word “valid” to support the authors’ claims. Studies by other investigators may be labeled “not validated.” Validity simply refers to the ability of a device to measure what it intends to measure. Validity is not an intrinsic test property. It is a relative term most credibly assigned by the independent user. Similarly, the word “reliable” is subject to interpretation. In psychometrics, its meaning is synonymous with “reproducible.” The definitions of valid and reliable are analogous to accuracy and precision. Reliability (both the reliability of the data and the consistency of measurements) is a prerequisite for validity. Outcome measures in plastic surgery are intended to be surveys, not tests. The role of psychometric modeling in plastic surgery is unclear, and this discipline introduces difficult jargon that can discourage investigators. Standard statistical tests suffice. The unambiguous term “reproducible” is preferred when discussing data consistency. Study design and methodology are essential considerations when assessing a study’s validity. PMID:25289354

Validity, Reliability, and the Questionable Role of Psychometrics in Plastic Surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Swanson, MD

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Summary: This report examines the meaning of validity and reliability and the role of psychometrics in plastic surgery. Study titles increasingly include the word “valid” to support the authors’ claims. Studies by other investigators may be labeled “not validated.” Validity simply refers to the ability of a device to measure what it intends to measure. Validity is not an intrinsic test property. It is a relative term most credibly assigned by the independent user. Similarly, the word “reliable” is subject to interpretation. In psychometrics, its meaning is synonymous with “reproducible.” The definitions of valid and reliable are analogous to accuracy and precision. Reliability (both the reliability of the data and the consistency of measurements is a prerequisite for validity. Outcome measures in plastic surgery are intended to be surveys, not tests. The role of psychometric modeling in plastic surgery is unclear, and this discipline introduces difficult jargon that can discourage investigators. Standard statistical tests suffice. The unambiguous term “reproducible” is preferred when discussing data consistency. Study design and methodology are essential considerations when assessing a study’s validity.

Bridging the gap between metallurgy and fatigue reliability of hydraulic turbine runners

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thibault, D; Gagnon, M; Godin, S

2014-01-01

The failure of hydraulic turbine runners is a very rare event. Hence, in order to assess the reliability of these components, one cannot rely on statistical models based on the number of failures in a given population. However, as there is a limited number of degradation mechanisms involved, it is possible to use physically-based reliability models. Such models are more complicated but have the advantage of being able to account for physical parameters in the prediction of the evolution of runner degradation. They can therefore propose solutions to help improve reliability. With the use of such models, the effect of materials properties on runner reliability can easily be illustrated. This paper will present a brief review of the Kitagawa-Takahashi diagram that links the damage tolerance approach, based on fracture mechanics, to the stress or strain-life approaches. This diagram is at the centre of the reliability model used in this study. Using simplified response spectra obtained from on-site runner stress measurements, the paper will show how fatigue reliability is impacted by materials fatigue properties, namely fatigue crack propagation behaviour and fatigue limit obtained on S-N curves. It will also present a review of the most important microstructural features of 13%Cr- 4%Ni stainless steels used for runner manufacturing and will review how they influence fatigue properties in an effort to bridge the gap between metallurgy and turbine runners reliability

Reliability, precision, and measurement in the context of data from ability tests, surveys, and assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, W P Jr; Elbaum, B; Coulter, A

2010-01-01

Reliability coefficients indicate the proportion of total variance attributable to differences among measures separated along a quantitative continuum by a testing, survey, or assessment instrument. Reliability is usually considered to be influenced by both the internal consistency of a data set and the number of items, though textbooks and research papers rarely evaluate the extent to which these factors independently affect the data in question. Probabilistic formulations of the requirements for unidimensional measurement separate consistency from error by modelling individual response processes instead of group-level variation. The utility of this separation is illustrated via analyses of small sets of simulated data, and of subsets of data from a 78-item survey of over 2,500 parents of children with disabilities. Measurement reliability ultimately concerns the structural invariance specified in models requiring sufficient statistics, parameter separation, unidimensionality, and other qualities that historically have made quantification simple, practical, and convenient for end users. The paper concludes with suggestions for a research program aimed at focusing measurement research more on the calibration and wide dissemination of tools applicable to individuals, and less on the statistical study of inter-variable relations in large data sets.

A quantitative approach to wind farm diversification and reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Degeilh, Yannick; Singh, Chanan [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

2011-02-15

This paper proposes a general planning method to minimize the variance of aggregated wind farm power output by optimally distributing a predetermined number of wind turbines over a preselected number of potential wind farming sites. The objective is to facilitate high wind power penetration through the search for steadier overall power output. Another optimization formulation that takes into account the correlations between wind power outputs and load is also presented. Three years of wind data from the recent NREL/3TIER study in the western US provides the statistics for evaluating each site upon their mean power output, variance and correlation with each other so that the best allocations can be determined. The reliability study reported in this paper investigates the impact of wind power output variance reduction on a power system composed of a virtual wind power plant and a load modeled from the 1996 IEEE RTS. Some traditional reliability indices such as the LOLP are calculated and it is eventually shown that configurations featuring minimal global power output variances generally prove the most reliable provided the sites are not significantly correlated with the modeled load. Consequently, the choice of uncorrelated/negatively correlated sites is favored. (author)

A quantitative approach to wind farm diversification and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Degeilh, Yannick; Singh, Chanan

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a general planning method to minimize the variance of aggregated wind farm power output by optimally distributing a predetermined number of wind turbines over a preselected number of potential wind farming sites. The objective is to facilitate high wind power penetration through the search for steadier overall power output. Another optimization formulation that takes into account the correlations between wind power outputs and load is also presented. Three years of wind data from the recent NREL/3TIER study in the western US provides the statistics for evaluating each site upon their mean power output, variance and correlation with each other so that the best allocations can be determined. The reliability study reported in this paper investigates the impact of wind power output variance reduction on a power system composed of a virtual wind power plant and a load modeled from the 1996 IEEE RTS. Some traditional reliability indices such as the LOLP are calculated and it is eventually shown that configurations featuring minimal global power output variances generally prove the most reliable provided the sites are not significantly correlated with the modeled load. Consequently, the choice of uncorrelated/negatively correlated sites is favored. (author)

Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

Science.gov (United States)

DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

Computer Model to Estimate Reliability Engineering for Air Conditioning Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afrah Al-Bossly, A.; El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.

2012-01-01

Reliability engineering is used to predict the performance and optimize design and maintenance of air conditioning systems. Air conditioning systems are expose to a number of failures. The failures of an air conditioner such as turn on, loss of air conditioner cooling capacity, reduced air conditioning output temperatures, loss of cool air supply and loss of air flow entirely can be due to a variety of problems with one or more components of an air conditioner or air conditioning system. Forecasting for system failure rates are very important for maintenance. This paper focused on the reliability of the air conditioning systems. Statistical distributions that were commonly applied in reliability settings: the standard (2 parameter) Weibull and Gamma distributions. After distributions parameters had been estimated, reliability estimations and predictions were used for evaluations. To evaluate good operating condition in a building, the reliability of the air conditioning system that supplies conditioned air to the several The company's departments. This air conditioning system is divided into two, namely the main chilled water system and the ten air handling systems that serves the ten departments. In a chilled-water system the air conditioner cools water down to 40-45 degree F (4-7 degree C). The chilled water is distributed throughout the building in a piping system and connected to air condition cooling units wherever needed. Data analysis has been done with support a computer aided reliability software, this is due to the Weibull and Gamma distributions indicated that the reliability for the systems equal to 86.012% and 77.7% respectively. A comparison between the two important families of distribution functions, namely, the Weibull and Gamma families was studied. It was found that Weibull method performed for decision making.

Statistical learning in social action contexts.

Science.gov (United States)

Monroy, Claire; Meyer, Marlene; Gerson, Sarah; Hunnius, Sabine

2017-01-01

Sensitivity to the regularities and structure contained within sequential, goal-directed actions is an important building block for generating expectations about the actions we observe. Until now, research on statistical learning for actions has solely focused on individual action sequences, but many actions in daily life involve multiple actors in various interaction contexts. The current study is the first to investigate the role of statistical learning in tracking regularities between actions performed by different actors, and whether the social context characterizing their interaction influences learning. That is, are observers more likely to track regularities across actors if they are perceived as acting jointly as opposed to in parallel? We tested adults and toddlers to explore whether social context guides statistical learning and-if so-whether it does so from early in development. In a between-subjects eye-tracking experiment, participants were primed with a social context cue between two actors who either shared a goal of playing together ('Joint' condition) or stated the intention to act alone ('Parallel' condition). In subsequent videos, the actors performed sequential actions in which, for certain action pairs, the first actor's action reliably predicted the second actor's action. We analyzed predictive eye movements to upcoming actions as a measure of learning, and found that both adults and toddlers learned the statistical regularities across actors when their actions caused an effect. Further, adults with high statistical learning performance were sensitive to social context: those who observed actors with a shared goal were more likely to correctly predict upcoming actions. In contrast, there was no effect of social context in the toddler group, regardless of learning performance. These findings shed light on how adults and toddlers perceive statistical regularities across actors depending on the nature of the observed social situation and the

The bridge crane mechanism shaft reliability calculating in case of the fatigue fracture parameters correlation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krutitskiy M.N.

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The method of statistical tests examines the impact of the correlation of the parameters of fatigue-such as the durability of the shaft mechanism of an overhead traveling crane for General use is under consideration in this article. It is be-lieved that the normal and shear stresses together affect the overall durability of the shaft. There may be a correlation between endurance limits and coefficients of block similarity of loading. To calculate resource used corrected linear theory of fatigue damage accumulation. Parameters on the reliability are computed after building the function, the reli-ability function directly or through private functions the reliability function for each type of stress.

A Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based (BME) Ceramic Capacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Donhang

2014-01-01

The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with base-metal electrodes (BMEs) for potential NASA space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. The reliability of an MLCC is defined as the ability of the dielectric material to retain its insulating properties under stated environmental and operational conditions for a specified period of time t. In this presentation, a general mathematic expression of a reliability model for a BME MLCC is developed and discussed. The reliability model consists of three parts: (1) a statistical distribution that describes the individual variation of properties in a test group of samples (Weibull, log normal, normal, etc.), (2) an acceleration function that describes how a capacitors reliability responds to external stresses such as applied voltage and temperature (All units in the test group should follow the same acceleration function if they share the same failure mode, independent of individual units), and (3) the effect and contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size r, and capacitor chip size S. In general, a two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution model is used in the description of a BME capacitors reliability as a function of time. The acceleration function that relates a capacitors reliability to external stresses is dependent on the failure mode. Two failure modes have been identified in BME MLCCs: catastrophic and slow degradation. A catastrophic failure is characterized by a time-accelerating increase in leakage current that is mainly due to existing processing defects (voids, cracks, delamination, etc.), or the extrinsic defects. A slow degradation failure is characterized by a near-linear increase in leakage current against the stress time; this is caused by the electromigration of oxygen vacancies (intrinsic defects). The

Reliability of structures of industrial installations. Theory and applications of probabilistic mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Morilhat, P.; Carle, R.; Menjon, G.

1996-01-01

The management of the service life of mechanical materials implies an evaluation of their risk of failure during their use. To evaluate this risk the following methods are used: the classical frequency statistics applied to experience feedback data concerning failures noticed during operation of active parts (pumps, valves, exchangers, circuit breakers etc..); the Bayesian approach in the case of scarce statistical data and when experts are needed to compensate the lack of information; the structures reliability approach when no data are available and when a theoretical model of degradation must be used, in particular for passive structures (pressure vessels, pipes, tanks, etc..). The aim of this book is to describe the principles and applications of this third approach to industrial installations. Chapter 1 recalls the historical aspects of the probabilistic approach to the reliability of structures and the existing codes. Chapter 2 presents the level 1 deterministic method applied so far for the conceiving of passive structures. The Cornell reliability index, already used in civil engineering codes, is defined in chapter 3. The Hasofer and Lind reliability index, a generalization of the Cornell index, is defined in chapter 4. Chapter 5 concerns the application of probabilistic approaches to optimization studies with the introduction of the economical variables linked to the risk and the possible actions to limit this risk (in-service inspection, maintenance, repairing etc..). Chapters 6 and 7 describe the Monte Carlo simulation and approximation methods for failure probabilistic calculations, and recall the fracture mechanics basis and the models of load and degradation of industrial installations. Some applications are given in chapter 9 with the cases of the safety margins quantization of a fissured pipe and the optimizing of the in-service inspection policy of a steam generator. Chapter 10 raises the problem of the coupling between mechanical and reliability

Soil-structure interaction effects on the reliability evaluation of reactor containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pires, J.; Hwang, H.; Reich, M.

1986-01-01

The probability-based method for the seismic reliability assessment of nuclear structures, which has been developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), is extended to include the effects of soil-structure interaction. A reinforced concrete containment building is analyzed in order to examine soil-structure interaction effects on: (1) structural fragilities; (2) floor response spectra statistics; and (3) correlation coefficients for total acceleration responses at specified structural locations

Proceedings of the 1980 DOE statistical symposium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Truett, T.; Margolies, D.; Mensing, R.W.

1981-04-01

Separate abstracts were prepared for 8 of the 16 papers presented at the DOE Statistical Symposium in California in October 1980. The topics of those papers not included cover the relative detection efficiency on sets of irradiated fuel elements, estimating failure rates for pumps in nuclear reactors, estimating fragility functions, application of bounded-influence regression, the influence function method applied to energy time series data, reliability problems in power generation systems and uncertainty analysis associated with radioactive waste disposal. The other 8 papers have previously been added to the data base

Statistical quality control a loss minimization approach

CERN Document Server

Trietsch, Dan

1999-01-01

While many books on quality espouse the Taguchi loss function, they do not examine its impact on statistical quality control (SQC). But using the Taguchi loss function sheds new light on questions relating to SQC and calls for some changes. This book covers SQC in a way that conforms with the need to minimize loss. Subjects often not covered elsewhere include: (i) measurements, (ii) determining how many points to sample to obtain reliable control charts (for which purpose a new graphic tool, diffidence charts, is introduced), (iii) the connection between process capability and tolerances, (iv)

On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

2018-01-06

This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks' statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies.

On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks’ statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies. PMID:29316614

Reliable computer systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Wear, L L; Pinkert, J R

1993-11-01

In this article, we looked at some decisions that apply to the design of reliable computer systems. We began with a discussion of several terms such as testability, then described some systems that call for highly reliable hardware and software. The article concluded with a discussion of methods that can be used to achieve higher reliability in computer systems. Reliability and fault tolerance in computers probably will continue to grow in importance. As more and more systems are computerized, people will want assurances about the reliability of these systems, and their ability to work properly even when sub-systems fail.

78 FR 41339 - Electric Reliability Organization Proposal To Retire Requirements in Reliability Standards

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-10

...] Electric Reliability Organization Proposal To Retire Requirements in Reliability Standards AGENCY: Federal... Reliability Standards identified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the Commission-certified Electric Reliability Organization. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kevin Ryan (Legal Information...

76 FR 58101 - Electric Reliability Organization Interpretation of Transmission Operations Reliability Standard

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-20

....C. Cir. 2009). \\4\\ Mandatory Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System, Order No. 693, FERC... for maintaining real and reactive power balance. \\14\\ Electric Reliability Organization Interpretation...; Order No. 753] Electric Reliability Organization Interpretation of Transmission Operations Reliability...

Turkish Version of Kolcaba's Immobilization Comfort Questionnaire: A Validity and Reliability Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tosun, Betül; Aslan, Özlem; Tunay, Servet; Akyüz, Aygül; Özkan, Hüseyin; Bek, Doğan; Açıksöz, Semra

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the Immobilization Comfort Questionnaire (ICQ). The sample used in this methodological study consisted of 121 patients undergoing lower extremity arthroscopy in a training and research hospital. The validity study of the questionnaire assessed language validity, structural validity and criterion validity. Structural validity was evaluated via exploratory factor analysis. Criterion validity was evaluated by assessing the correlation between the visual analog scale (VAS) scores (i.e., the comfort and pain VAS scores) and the ICQ scores using Spearman's correlation test. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin coefficient and Bartlett's test of sphericity were used to determine the suitability of the data for factor analysis. Internal consistency was evaluated to determine reliability. The data were analyzed with SPSS version 15.00 for Windows. Descriptive statistics were presented as frequencies, percentages, means and standard deviations. A p value ≤ .05 was considered statistically significant. A moderate positive correlation was found between the ICQ scores and the VAS comfort scores; a moderate negative correlation was found between the ICQ and the VAS pain measures in the criterion validity analysis. Cronbach α values of .75 and .82 were found for the first and second measurements, respectively. The findings of this study reveal that the ICQ is a valid and reliable tool for assessing the comfort of patients in Turkey who are immobilized because of lower extremity orthopedic problems. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Stochastic models and reliability parameter estimation applicable to nuclear power plant safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitra, S.P.

1979-01-01

A set of stochastic models and related estimation schemes for reliability parameters are developed. The models are applicable for evaluating reliability of nuclear power plant systems. Reliability information is extracted from model parameters which are estimated from the type and nature of failure data that is generally available or could be compiled in nuclear power plants. Principally, two aspects of nuclear power plant reliability have been investigated: (1) The statistical treatment of inplant component and system failure data; (2) The analysis and evaluation of common mode failures. The model inputs are failure data which have been classified as either the time type of failure data or the demand type of failure data. Failures of components and systems in nuclear power plant are, in general, rare events.This gives rise to sparse failure data. Estimation schemes for treating sparse data, whenever necessary, have been considered. The following five problems have been studied: 1) Distribution of sparse failure rate component data. 2) Failure rate inference and reliability prediction from time type of failure data. 3) Analyses of demand type of failure data. 4) Common mode failure model applicable to time type of failure data. 5) Estimation of common mode failures from 'near-miss' demand type of failure data

76 FR 42534 - Mandatory Reliability Standards for Interconnection Reliability Operating Limits; System...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-19

... Reliability Operating Limits; System Restoration Reliability Standards AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory... data necessary to analyze and monitor Interconnection Reliability Operating Limits (IROL) within its... Interconnection Reliability Operating Limits, Order No. 748, 134 FERC ] 61,213 (2011). \\2\\ The term ``Wide-Area...

Applied statistics for civil and environmental engineers

CERN Document Server

Kottegoda, N T

2009-01-01

Civil and environmental engineers need an understanding of mathematical statistics and probability theory to deal with the variability that affects engineers'' structures, soil pressures, river flows and the like. Students, too, need to get to grips with these rather difficult concepts.This book, written by engineers for engineers, tackles the subject in a clear, up-to-date manner using a process-orientated approach. It introduces the subjects of mathematical statistics and probability theory, and then addresses model estimation and testing, regression and multivariate methods, analysis of extreme events, simulation techniques, risk and reliability, and economic decision making.325 examples and case studies from European and American practice are included and each chapter features realistic problems to be solved.For the second edition new sections have been added on Monte Carlo Markov chain modeling with details of practical Gibbs sampling, sensitivity analysis and aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, and co...

Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, Michael Havbro

contains the proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP11, Zürich, Switzerland, 1-4 August 2011). The book focuses not only on the more traditional technical issues, but also emphasizes the societal context...... and reliability in engineering; to professionals and engineers, including insurance and consulting companies working with natural hazards, design, operation and maintenance of civil engineering and industrial facilities; and to decision makers and professionals in the public sector, including nongovernmental...

76 FR 66055 - North American Electric Reliability Corporation; Order Approving Interpretation of Reliability...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-25

...\\ Mandatory Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System, Order No. 693, FERC Stats. & Regs. ] 31,242... materially affected'' by Bulk-Power System reliability may request an interpretation of a Reliability... Electric Reliability Corporation; Order Approving Interpretation of Reliability Standard; Before...

Reliability of Autism-Tics, AD/HD, and other Comorbidities (A-TAC) inventory in a test-retest design.

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Tomas; Kerekes, Nóra; Selinus, Eva Norén; Lichtenstein, Paul; Gumpert, Clara Hellner; Anckarsäter, Henrik; Nilsson, Thomas; Lundström, Sebastian

2014-02-01

The Autism-Tics, AD/HD, and other Comorbidities (A-TAC) inventory is used in epidemiological research to assess neurodevelopmental problems and coexisting conditions. Although the A-TAC has been applied in various populations, data on retest reliability are limited. The objective of the present study was to present additional reliability data. The A-TAC was administered by lay assessors and was completed on two occasions by parents of 400 individual twins, with an average interval of 70 days between test sessions. Intra- and inter-rater reliability were analysed with intraclass correlations and Cohen's kappa. A-TAC showed excellent test-retest intraclass correlations for both autism spectrum disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (each at .84). Most modules in the A-TAC had intra- and inter-rater reliability intraclass correlation coefficients of > or = .60. Cohen's kappa indi- cated acceptable reliability. The current study provides statistical evidence that the A-TAC yields good test-retest reliability in a population-based cohort of children.

Inverse Reliability Task: Artificial Neural Networks and Reliability-Based Optimization Approaches

OpenAIRE

Lehký , David; Slowik , Ondřej; Novák , Drahomír

2014-01-01

Part 7: Genetic Algorithms; International audience; The paper presents two alternative approaches to solve inverse reliability task – to determine the design parameters to achieve desired target reliabilities. The first approach is based on utilization of artificial neural networks and small-sample simulation Latin hypercube sampling. The second approach considers inverse reliability task as reliability-based optimization task using double-loop method and also small-sample simulation. Efficie...

76 FR 23801 - North American Electric Reliability Corporation; Order Approving Reliability Standard

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-28

... have an operating plan and facilities for backup functionality to ensure Bulk-Power System reliability... entity's primary control center on the reliability of the Bulk-Power System. \\1\\ Mandatory Reliability... potential impact of a violation of the Requirement on the reliability of the Bulk-Power System. The...

Suncor maintenance and reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Little, S. [Suncor Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2006-07-01

Fleet maintenance and reliability at Suncor Energy was discussed in this presentation, with reference to Suncor Energy's primary and support equipment fleets. This paper also discussed Suncor Energy's maintenance and reliability standard involving people, processes and technology. An organizational maturity chart that graphed organizational learning against organizational performance was illustrated. The presentation also reviewed the maintenance and reliability framework; maintenance reliability model; the process overview of the maintenance and reliability standard; a process flow chart of maintenance strategies and programs; and an asset reliability improvement process flow chart. An example of an improvement initiative was included, with reference to a shovel reliability review; a dipper trip reliability investigation; bucket related failures by type and frequency; root cause analysis of the reliability process; and additional actions taken. Last, the presentation provided a graph of the results of the improvement initiative and presented the key lessons learned. tabs., figs.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential

Reasoning with Inductive Argument Test: A Study of Validity and Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet Emrah Karadere

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Reasoning with Inductive Argument Test:A Study of Validity and Reliability Objective: The aim of our study is to research reliability and validity and to evaluate the usability of Turkish version of Reasoning with Inductive Argument Test (RIAT in Turkish healty population. Method: 51 healty volunteers who work in Ankara Dıskapi Yildirim Beyazit Research and Training Hospital participated in this study. Reasoning with Inductive Argument Test (RIAT was translated into Turkish by three clinical good knowledge of English. Participants were given a sociodemographic data form, and RIAT were performed by clinicians. To test the reliability of the Turkish version of RIAT, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was calculated and the halving method was used for the test. Results: The internal consistency of the Reasoning with Inductive Argument Test (RIAT items, Cronbach’s alpha internal consistency coefficient measurements of 0.73 was found to be statistically significant. Spearman-Brown coefficient that determines the reliability of the whole test r=0.74 was found. Kurtosis values of all the items was below 1.5 and the percentages in the second evaluation were mainly lower. At the same time, both change in belief between self produced RIAT options and given RIAT options (p=0.02, z=-2296 as well as changes in beliefs between related and unrelated items for Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD difference (p=0.03, z=-2.199 were significant. Conclusion: The preliminary data obtained from the study of reliability and validity of the scale shows that ‘Reasoning with Inductive Argument Test’ supports reliability and validity in Turkish population.

Reliability and maintainability assessment factors for reliable fault-tolerant systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bavuso, S. J.

1984-01-01

A long term goal of the NASA Langley Research Center is the development of a reliability assessment methodology of sufficient power to enable the credible comparison of the stochastic attributes of one ultrareliable system design against others. This methodology, developed over a 10 year period, is a combined analytic and simulative technique. An analytic component is the Computer Aided Reliability Estimation capability, third generation, or simply CARE III. A simulative component is the Gate Logic Software Simulator capability, or GLOSS. The numerous factors that potentially have a degrading effect on system reliability and the ways in which these factors that are peculiar to highly reliable fault tolerant systems are accounted for in credible reliability assessments. Also presented are the modeling difficulties that result from their inclusion and the ways in which CARE III and GLOSS mitigate the intractability of the heretofore unworkable mathematics.

Reliability-Based Calibration of Load Duration Factors for Timber Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Svensson, Staffan; Stang, Birgitte Friis Dela

2005-01-01

John Dalsgaard Sørensen, Staffan Svensson, Birgitte Dela Stang : Reliability-Based Calibration of Load Duration Factors for Timber Structures     Abstract :   The load bearing capacity of timber structures decrease with time depending on the type of load and timber. Based on representative limit...... states and stochastic models for timber structures, load duration factors are calibrated using probabilistic methods. Load duration e.ects are estimated on basis of simulation of realizations of wind, snow and imposed loads in accordance with the load models in the Danish structural codes. Three damage...... accumulation models are considered, namely Gerhards model, Barrett and Foschi _ s model and Foschi and Yao _ s model. The parameters in these models are .tted by the Maximum Likelihood Method using data relevant for Danish structural timber and the statistical uncertainty is quanti .ed. The reliability...

Reliability of cervical vertebral maturation staging.

Science.gov (United States)

Rainey, Billie-Jean; Burnside, Girvan; Harrison, Jayne E

2016-07-01

Growth and its prediction are important for the success of many orthodontic treatments. The aim of this study was to determine the reliability of the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) method for the assessment of mandibular growth. A group of 20 orthodontic clinicians, inexperienced in CVM staging, was trained to use the improved version of the CVM method for the assessment of mandibular growth with a teaching program. They independently assessed 72 consecutive lateral cephalograms, taken at Liverpool University Dental Hospital, on 2 occasions. The cephalograms were presented in 2 different random orders and interspersed with 11 additional images for standardization. The intraobserver and interobserver agreement values were evaluated using the weighted kappa statistic. The intraobserver and interobserver agreement values were substantial (weighted kappa, 0.6-0.8). The overall intraobserver agreement was 0.70 (SE, 0.01), with average agreement of 89%. The interobserver agreement values were 0.68 (SE, 0.03) for phase 1 and 0.66 (SE, 0.03) for phase 2, with average interobserver agreement of 88%. The intraobserver and interobserver agreement values of classifying the vertebral stages with the CVM method were substantial. These findings demonstrate that this method of CVM classification is reproducible and reliable. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inter- and Intraexaminer Reliability in Identifying and Classifying Myofascial Trigger Points in Shoulder Muscles.

Science.gov (United States)

Nascimento, José Diego Sales do; Alburquerque-Sendín, Francisco; Vigolvino, Lorena Passos; Oliveira, Wandemberg Fortunato de; Sousa, Catarina de Oliveira

2018-01-01

To determine inter- and intraexaminer reliability of examiners without clinical experience in identifying and classifying myofascial trigger points (MTPs) in the shoulder muscles of subjects asymptomatic and symptomatic for unilateral subacromial impact syndrome (SIS). Within-day inter- and intraexaminer reliability study. Physical therapy department of a university. Fifty-two subjects participated in the study, 26 symptomatic and 26 asymptomatic for unilateral SIS. Two examiners, without experience for assessing MTPs, independent and blind to the clinical conditions of the subjects, assessed bilaterally the presence of MTPs (present or absent) in 6 shoulder muscles and classified them (latent or active) on the affected side of the symptomatic group. Each examiner performed the same assessment twice in the same day. Reliability was calculated through percentage agreement, prevalence- and bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK) statistics, and weighted kappa. Intraexaminer reliability in identifying MTPs for the symptomatic and asymptomatic groups was moderate to perfect (PABAK, .46-1 and .60-1, respectively). Interexaminer reliability was between moderate and almost perfect in the 2 groups (PABAK, .46-.92), except for the muscles of the symptomatic group, which were below these values. With respect to MTP classification, intraexaminer reliability was moderate to high for most muscles, but interexaminer reliability was moderate for only 1 muscle (weighted κ=.45), and between weak and reasonable for the rest (weighted κ=.06-.31). Intraexaminer reliability is acceptable in clinical practice to identify and classify MTPs. However, interexaminer reliability proved to be reliable only to identify MTPs, with the symptomatic side exhibiting lower values of reliability. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability Engineering

CERN Document Server

Lazzaroni, Massimo

2012-01-01

This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

Reliability training

Science.gov (United States)

Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

1992-01-01

Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mizutani, M.; Fukushima, S.; Akao, Y.; Katukura, H.

1993-01-01

This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)

Statistical Analysis Of Failure Strength Of Material Using Weibull Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Entin Hartini; Mike Susmikanti; Antonius Sitompul

2008-01-01

In evaluation of ceramic and glass materials strength a statistical approach is necessary Strength of ceramic and glass depend on its measure and size distribution of flaws in these material. The distribution of strength for ductile material is narrow and close to a Gaussian distribution while strength of brittle materials as ceramic and glass following Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is an indicator of the failure of material strength resulting from a distribution of flaw size. In this paper, cumulative probability of material strength to failure probability, cumulative probability of failure versus fracture stress and cumulative probability of reliability of material were calculated. Statistical criteria calculation supporting strength analysis of Silicon Nitride material were done utilizing MATLAB. (author)

Development and Reliability Testing of a Fast-Food Restaurant Observation Form.

Science.gov (United States)

Rimkus, Leah; Ohri-Vachaspati, Punam; Powell, Lisa M; Zenk, Shannon N; Quinn, Christopher M; Barker, Dianne C; Pugach, Oksana; Resnick, Elissa A; Chaloupka, Frank J

2015-01-01

To develop a reliable observational data collection instrument to measure characteristics of the fast-food restaurant environment likely to influence consumer behaviors, including product availability, pricing, and promotion. The study used observational data collection. Restaurants were in the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area. A total of 131 chain fast-food restaurant outlets were included. Interrater reliability was measured for product availability, pricing, and promotion measures on a fast-food restaurant observational data collection instrument. Analysis was done with Cohen's κ coefficient and proportion of overall agreement for categorical variables and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for continuous variables. Interrater reliability, as measured by average κ coefficient, was .79 for menu characteristics, .84 for kids' menu characteristics, .92 for food availability and sizes, .85 for beverage availability and sizes, .78 for measures on the availability of nutrition information,.75 for characteristics of exterior advertisements, and .62 and .90 for exterior and interior characteristics measures, respectively. For continuous measures, average ICC was .88 for food pricing measures, .83 for beverage prices, and .65 for counts of exterior advertisements. Over 85% of measures demonstrated substantial or almost perfect agreement. Although some measures required revision or protocol clarification, results from this study suggest that the instrument may be used to reliably measure the fast-food restaurant environment.

Power system reliability impacts of wind generation and operational reserve requirements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Gil

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Due to its variability, wind generation integration presents a significant challenge to power system operators in order to maintain adequate reliability levels while ensuring least cost operation. This paper explores the trade-off between the benefits associated to a higher wind penetration and the additional operational reserve requirements that they impose. Such exploration is valued in terms of its effect on power system reliability, measured as an amount of unserved energy. The paper also focuses on how changing the Value of Lost Load (VoLL can be used to attain different reliability targets, and how wind power penetration and the diversity of the wind energy resource will impact quality of supply (in terms of instances of unserved energy. The evaluation of different penetrations of wind power generation, different wind speed profiles, wind resource diversity, and different operational reserve requirements, is conducted on the Chilean Northern Interconnected System (SING using statistical modeling of wind speed time series and computer simulation through a 24-hour ahead unit commitment algorithm and a Monte Carlo simulation scheme. Results for the SING suggest that while wind generation can significantly reduce generation costs, it can also imply higher security costs to reach acceptable reliability levels.

Reliability demonstration test for load-sharing systems with exponential and Weibull components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianyu Xu

Full Text Available Conducting a Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT is a crucial step in production. Products are tested under certain schemes to demonstrate whether their reliability indices reach pre-specified thresholds. Test schemes for RDT have been studied in different situations, e.g., lifetime testing, degradation testing and accelerated testing. Systems designed with several structures are also investigated in many RDT plans. Despite the availability of a range of test plans for different systems, RDT planning for load-sharing systems hasn't yet received the attention it deserves. In this paper, we propose a demonstration method for two specific types of load-sharing systems with components subject to two distributions: exponential and Weibull. Based on the assumptions and interpretations made in several previous works on such load-sharing systems, we set the mean time to failure (MTTF of the total system as the demonstration target. We represent the MTTF as a summation of mean time between successive component failures. Next, we introduce generalized test statistics for both the underlying distributions. Finally, RDT plans for the two types of systems are established on the basis of these test statistics.

76 FR 16240 - Mandatory Reliability Standards for Interconnection Reliability Operating Limits

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-23

... identified by the Commission. \\5\\ Mandatory Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System, Order No. 693... reliability of the interconnection by ensuring that the bulk electric system is assessed during the operations... responsibility for SOLs. Further, Bulk-Power System reliability practices assign responsibilities for analyzing...

Introducing a new definition of a near fall: intra-rater and inter-rater reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Maidan, I; Freedman, T; Tzemah, R; Giladi, N; Mirelman, A; Hausdorff, J M

2014-01-01

Near falls (NFs) are more frequent than falls, and may occur before falls, potentially predicting fall risk. As such, identification of a NF is important. We aimed to assess intra and inter-rater reliability of the traditional definition of a NF and to demonstrate the potential utility of a new definition. To this end, 10 older adults, 10 idiopathic elderly fallers, and 10 patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) walked in an obstacle course while wearing a safety harness. All walks were videotaped. Forty-nine video segments were extracted to create 2 clips each of 8.48 min. Four raters scored each event using the traditional definition and, two weeks later, using the new definition. A fifth rater used only the new definition. Intra-rater reliability was determined using Kappa (K) statistics and inter-rater reliability was determined using ICC. Using the traditional definition, three raters had poor intra-rater reliability (K0.137) and one rater had moderate intra-rater reliability (K=0.624, pdefinition, inter-rater reliability between the four raters was moderate (ICC=0.667, pdefinition showed high intra-rater (K>0.601, pdefinition of NF is required. The results of the present study suggest that the proposed new definition increases intra and inter-rater reliability, a critical step for using NFs to quantify fall risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examiner Reliability of Fluorosis Scoring: A Comparison of Photographic and Clinical Examination Findings

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz-Orcutt, Noemi; Warren, John J.; Broffitt, Barbara; Levy, Steven M.; Weber-Gasparoni, Karin

2012-01-01

Objective To assess and compare examiner reliability of clinical and photographic fluorosis examinations using the Fluorosis Risk Index (FRI) among children in the Iowa Fluoride Study (IFS). Methods The IFS examined 538 children for fluorosis and dental caries at age 13 and obtained intra-oral photographs from nearly all of them. To assess examiner reliability, duplicate clinical examinations were conducted for 40 of the subjects. In addition, 200 of the photographs were scored independently for fluorosis by two examiners in a standardized manner. Fluorosis data were compared between examiners for the clinical exams and separately for the photographic exams, and a comparison was made between clinical and photographic exams. For all 3 comparisons, examiner reliability was assessed using kappa statistics at the tooth level. Results Inter-examiner reliability for the duplicate clinical exams on the sample of 40 subjects as measured by kappa was 0.59, while the repeat exams of the 200 photographs yielded a kappa of 0.64. For the comparison of photographic and clinical exams, inter-examiner reliability, as measured by weighted kappa, was 0.46. FRI scores obtained using the photographs were higher on average than those obtained from the clinical exams. Fluorosis prevalence was higher for photographs (33%) than found for clinical exam (18%). Conclusion Results suggest inter-examiner reliability is greater and fluorosis scores higher when using photographic compared to clinical examinations. PMID:22316120

INTRA-RATER RELIABILITY OF WII BALANCE BOARD (WBB IN ASSESSING STANDING BALANCE IN OLDER ADULTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shilpa Dugani Burji

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background: WII Balance Board (WBB being one of the latest, advanced technologies of high sensitivity in monitoring change in balance over time and owing to, ease of use, and portability, it is being used in physical therapy clinics as a popular substitute for the expensive and complicated force plates to improve dynamic strength and balance. Despite its growing popularity, the WBB’s reliability as an intervention and assessment tool for balance is still being investigated. So this study aims in finding the accuracy of WBB. The objectives of the study are to find the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient and Standard Error Measurement on both day 1 and day 2 with eyes closed and eyes open in older adults. Method: 30 subjects over the age of 65 years were assessed for balance using WBB. Subjects were measured in double limb stance with eyes open and closed with feet comfortably distant apart on the board. The same procedure was repeated after 24 hours. Results: The study showed to be statistically significant for eyes open on day 1 and day 2, but was not statistically significant for eyes closed on day 1 and day 2. Conclusion: The study suggested that the WBB was reliable for eyes open and not reliable with eyes closed.

Test–Retest Reliability of Self-Reported Sexual Behavior History in Urbanized Nigerian Women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eileen O. Dareng

2017-07-01

Full Text Available BackgroundStudies assessing risk of sexual behavior and disease are often plagued by questions about the reliability of self-reported sexual behavior. In this study, we evaluated the reliability of self-reported sexual history among urbanized women in a prospective study of cervical HPV infections in Nigeria.MethodsWe examined test–retest reliability of sexual practices using questionnaires administered at study entry and at follow-up visits. We used the root mean squared approach to calculate within-person coefficient of variation (CVw and calculated the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC using two way, mixed effects models for continuous variables and (κ^ statistics for discrete variables. To evaluate the potential predictors of reliability, we used linear regression and log binomial regression models for the continuous and categorical variables, respectively.ResultsWe found that self-reported sexual history was generally reliable, with overall ICC ranging from 0.7 to 0.9; however, the reliability varied by nature of sexual behavior evaluated. Frequency reports of non-vaginal sex (agreement = 63.9%, 95% CI: 47.5–77.6% were more reliable than those of vaginal sex (agreement = 59.1%, 95% CI: 55.2–62.8%. Reports of time-invariant behaviors were also more reliable than frequency reports. The CVw for age at sexual debut was 10.7 (95% CI: 10.6–10.7 compared with the CVw for lifetime number of vaginal sex partners, which was 35.2 (95% CI: 35.1–35.3. The test–retest interval was an important predictor of reliability of responses, with longer intervals resulting in increased inconsistency (average change in unreliability for each 1 month increase = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.07–0.38, p = 0.005.ConclusionOur findings suggest that overall, the self-reported sexual history among urbanized Nigeran women is reliable.

Reliability of a questionnaire on substance use among adolescent students, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Machado Neto, Adelmo de Souza; Andrade, Tarcisio Matos; Fernandes, Gilênio Borges; Zacharias, Helder Paulo; Carvalho, Fernando Martins; Machado, Ana Paula Souza; Dias, Ana Carmen Costa; Garcia, Ana Carolina Rocha; Santana, Lauro Reis; Rolin, Carlos Eduardo; Sampaio, Cyntia; Ghiraldi, Gisele; Bastos, Francisco Inácio

2010-10-01

To analyze reliability of a self-applied questionnaire on substance use and misuse among adolescent students. Two cross-sectional studies were carried out for the instrument test-retest. The sample comprised male and female students aged 1119 years from public and private schools (elementary, middle, and high school students) in the city of Salvador, Northeastern Brazil, in 2006. A total of 591 questionnaires were applied in the test and 467 in the retest. Descriptive statistics, the Kappa index, Cronbach's alpha and intraclass correlation were estimated. The prevalence of substance use/misuse was similar in both test and retest. Sociodemographic variables showed a "moderate" to "almost perfect" agreement for the Kappa index, and a "satisfactory" (>0.75) consistency for Cronbach's alpha and intraclass correlation. The age which psychoactive substances (tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis) were first used and chronological age were similar in both studies. Test-retest reliability was found to be a good indicator of students' age of initiation and their patterns of substance use. The questionnaire reliability was found to be satisfactory in the population studied.

Assessing high reliability via Bayesian approach and accelerated tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erto, Pasquale; Giorgio, Massimiliano

2002-01-01

Sometimes the assessment of very high reliability levels is difficult for the following main reasons: - the high reliability level of each item makes it impossible to obtain, in a reasonably short time, a sufficient number of failures; - the high cost of the high reliability items to submit to life tests makes it unfeasible to collect enough data for 'classical' statistical analyses. In the above context, this paper presents a Bayesian solution to the problem of estimation of the parameters of the Weibull-inverse power law model, on the basis of a limited number (say six) of life tests, carried out at different stress levels, all higher than the normal one. The over-stressed (i.e. accelerated) tests allow the use of experimental data obtained in a reasonably short time. The Bayesian approach enables one to reduce the required number of failures adding to the failure information the available a priori engineers' knowledge. This engineers' involvement conforms to the most advanced management policy that aims at involving everyone's commitment in order to obtain total quality. A Monte Carlo study of the non-asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and a comparison with the properties of maximum likelihood estimators closes the work

Statistical analysis of the Ft. Calhoun reactor coolant pump system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heising, Carolyn D.

1998-01-01

In engineering science, statistical quality control techniques have traditionally been applied to control manufacturing processes. An application to commercial nuclear power plant maintenance and control is presented that can greatly improve plant safety. As a demonstration of such an approach to plant maintenance and control, a specific system is analyzed: the reactor coolant pumps (RCPs) of the Ft. Calhoun nuclear power plant. This research uses capability analysis, Shewhart X-bar, R-charts, canonical correlation methods, and design of experiments to analyze the process for the state of statistical control. The results obtained show that six out of ten parameters are under control specifications limits and four parameters are not in the state of statistical control. The analysis shows that statistical process control methods can be applied as an early warning system capable of identifying significant equipment problems well in advance of traditional control room alarm indicators Such a system would provide operators with ample time to respond to possible emergency situations and thus improve plant safety and reliability. (author)

Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Failure of Cast Components for Wind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hesam Mirzaei Rafsanjani

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Fatigue failure is one of the main failure modes for wind turbine drivetrain components made of cast iron. The wind turbine drivetrain consists of a variety of heavily loaded components, like the main shaft, the main bearings, the gearbox and the generator. The failure of each component will lead to substantial economic losses such as cost of lost energy production and cost of repairs. During the design lifetime, the drivetrain components are exposed to variable loads from winds and waves and other sources of loads that are uncertain and have to be modeled as stochastic variables. The types of loads are different for offshore and onshore wind turbines. Moreover, uncertainties about the fatigue strength play an important role in modeling and assessment of the reliability of the components. In this paper, a generic stochastic model for fatigue failure of cast iron components based on fatigue test data and a limit state equation for fatigue failure based on the SN-curve approach and Miner’s rule is presented. The statistical analysis of the fatigue data is performed using the Maximum Likelihood Method which also gives an estimate of the statistical uncertainties. Finally, illustrative examples are presented with reliability analyses depending on various stochastic models and partial safety factors.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buijs, F.A.; Hall, J.W.; Sayers, P.B.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van

2009-01-01

This paper describes the underlying theory and a practical process for establishing time-dependent reliability models for components in a realistic and complex flood defence system. Though time-dependent reliability models have been applied frequently in, for example, the offshore, structural safety and nuclear industry, application in the safety-critical field of flood defence has to date been limited. The modelling methodology involves identifying relevant variables and processes, characterisation of those processes in appropriate mathematical terms, numerical implementation, parameter estimation and prediction. A combination of stochastic, hierarchical and parametric processes is employed. The approach is demonstrated for selected deterioration mechanisms in the context of a flood defence system. The paper demonstrates that this structured methodology enables the definition of credible statistical models for time-dependence of flood defences in data scarce situations. In the application of those models one of the main findings is that the time variability in the deterioration process tends to be governed the time-dependence of one or a small number of critical attributes. It is demonstrated how the need for further data collection depends upon the relevance of the time-dependence in the performance of the flood defence system.

Design for reliability: NASA reliability preferred practices for design and test

Science.gov (United States)

Lalli, Vincent R.

1994-01-01

This tutorial summarizes reliability experience from both NASA and industry and reflects engineering practices that support current and future civil space programs. These practices were collected from various NASA field centers and were reviewed by a committee of senior technical representatives from the participating centers (members are listed at the end). The material for this tutorial was taken from the publication issued by the NASA Reliability and Maintainability Steering Committee (NASA Reliability Preferred Practices for Design and Test. NASA TM-4322, 1991). Reliability must be an integral part of the systems engineering process. Although both disciplines must be weighed equally with other technical and programmatic demands, the application of sound reliability principles will be the key to the effectiveness and affordability of America's space program. Our space programs have shown that reliability efforts must focus on the design characteristics that affect the frequency of failure. Herein, we emphasize that these identified design characteristics must be controlled by applying conservative engineering principles.

Prediction of safety critical software operational reliability from test reliability using testing environment factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

1999-01-01

It has been a critical issue to predict the safety critical software reliability in nuclear engineering area. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there have been many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is however on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, from testing to operation, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are developed in this paper and used to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data in testing phase. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results show that the proposed method can estimate the operational reliability accurately. (Author). 14 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

Scoping study on trends in the economic value of electricity reliability to the U.S. economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eto, Joseph; Koomey, Jonathan; Lehman, Bryan; Martin, Nathan; Mills, Evan; Webber, Carrie; Worrell, Ernst

2001-06-01

During the past three years, working with more than 150 organizations representing public and private stakeholders, EPRI has developed the Electricity Technology Roadmap. The Roadmap identifies several major strategic challenges that must be successfully addressed to ensure a sustainable future in which electricity continues to play an important role in economic growth. Articulation of these anticipated trends and challenges requires a detailed understanding of the role and importance of reliable electricity in different sectors of the economy. This report is intended to contribute to that understanding by analyzing key aspects of trends in the economic value of electricity reliability in the U.S. economy. We first present a review of recent literature on electricity reliability costs. Next, we describe three distinct end-use approaches for tracking trends in reliability needs: (1) an analysis of the electricity-use requirements of office equipment in different commercial sectors; (2) an examination of the use of aggregate statistical indicators of industrial electricity use and economic activity to identify high reliability-requirement customer market segments; and (3) a case study of cleanrooms, which is a cross-cutting market segment known to have high reliability requirements. Finally, we present insurance industry perspectives on electricity reliability as an example of a financial tool for addressing customers' reliability needs.

Power electronics reliability analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

2009-12-01

This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

Study on Feasibility of Applying Function Approximation Moment Method to Achieve Reliability-Based Design Optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huh, Jae Sung; Kwak, Byung Man

2011-01-01

Robust optimization or reliability-based design optimization are some of the methodologies that are employed to take into account the uncertainties of a system at the design stage. For applying such methodologies to solve industrial problems, accurate and efficient methods for estimating statistical moments and failure probability are required, and further, the results of sensitivity analysis, which is needed for searching direction during the optimization process, should also be accurate. The aim of this study is to employ the function approximation moment method into the sensitivity analysis formulation, which is expressed as an integral form, to verify the accuracy of the sensitivity results, and to solve a typical problem of reliability-based design optimization. These results are compared with those of other moment methods, and the feasibility of the function approximation moment method is verified. The sensitivity analysis formula with integral form is the efficient formulation for evaluating sensitivity because any additional function calculation is not needed provided the failure probability or statistical moments are calculated

Reliability of diagnosis and clinical efficacy of visceral osteopathy: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Guillaud, Albin; Darbois, Nelly; Monvoisin, Richard; Pinsault, Nicolas

2018-02-17

In 2010, the World Health Organization published benchmarks for training in osteopathy in which osteopathic visceral techniques are included. The purpose of this study was to identify and critically appraise the scientific literature concerning the reliability of diagnosis and the clinical efficacy of techniques used in visceral osteopathy. Databases MEDLINE, OSTMED.DR, the Cochrane Library, Osteopathic Research Web, Google Scholar, Journal of American Osteopathic Association (JAOA) website, International Journal of Osteopathic Medicine (IJOM) website, and the catalog of Académie d'ostéopathie de France website were searched through December 2017. Only inter-rater reliability studies including at least two raters or the intra-rater reliability studies including at least two assessments by the same rater were included. For efficacy studies, only randomized-controlled-trials (RCT) or crossover studies on unhealthy subjects (any condition, duration and outcome) were included. Risk of bias was determined using a modified version of the quality appraisal tool for studies of diagnostic reliability (QAREL) in reliability studies. For the efficacy studies, the Cochrane risk of bias tool was used to assess their methodological design. Two authors performed data extraction and analysis. Eight reliability studies and six efficacy studies were included. The analysis of reliability studies shows that the diagnostic techniques used in visceral osteopathy are unreliable. Regarding efficacy studies, the least biased study shows no significant difference for the main outcome. The main risks of bias found in the included studies were due to the absence of blinding of the examiners, an unsuitable statistical method or an absence of primary study outcome. The results of the systematic review lead us to conclude that well-conducted and sound evidence on the reliability and the efficacy of techniques in visceral osteopathy is absent. The review is registered PROSPERO 12th of December

Reliability of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-5 Sleep Disorders Module.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Daniel J; Wilkerson, Allison K; Pruiksma, Kristi E; Williams, Jacob M; Ruggero, Camilo J; Hale, Willie; Mintz, Jim; Organek, Katherine Marczyk; Nicholson, Karin L; Litz, Brett T; Young-McCaughan, Stacey; Dondanville, Katherine A; Borah, Elisa V; Brundige, Antoinette; Peterson, Alan L

2018-03-15

To develop and demonstrate interrater reliability for a Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) Sleep Disorders (SCISD). The SCISD was designed to be a brief, reliable, and valid interview assessment of adult sleep disorders as defined by the DSM-5. A sample of 106 postdeployment active-duty military members seeking cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia in a randomized clinical trial were assessed with the SCISD prior to treatment to determine eligibility. Audio recordings of these interviews were double-scored for interrater reliability. The interview is 8 pages long, includes 20 to 51 questions, and takes 10 to 20 minutes to administer. Of the nine major disorders included in the SCISD, six had prevalence rates high enough (ie, n ≥ 5) to include in analyses. Cohen kappa coefficient (κ) was used to assess interrater reliability for insomnia, hypersomnolence, obstructive sleep apnea hypopnea (OSAH), circadian rhythm sleep-wake, nightmare, and restless legs syndrome disorders. There was excellent interrater reliability for insomnia (1.0) and restless legs syndrome (0.83); very good reliability for nightmare disorder (0.78) and OSAH (0.73); and good reliability for hypersomnolence (0.50) and circadian rhythm sleep-wake disorders (0.50). The SCISD is a brief, structured clinical interview that is easy for clinicians to learn and use. The SCISD showed moderate to excellent interrater reliability for six of the major sleep disorders in the DSM-5 among active duty military seeking cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia in a randomized clinical trial. Replication and extension studies are needed. Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; Title: Comparing Internet and In-Person Brief Cognitive Behavioral Therapy of Insomnia; Identifier: NCT01549899; URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01549899. © 2018 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

76 FR 73608 - Reliability Technical Conference, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Public Service...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-29

... or municipal authority play in forming your bulk power system reliability plans? b. Do you support..., North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Nick Akins, CEO of American Electric Power (AEP..., EL11-62-000] Reliability Technical Conference, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Public...

3-D high-frequency endovaginal ultrasound of female urethral complex and assessment of inter-observer reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieczorek, A.P.; Wozniak, M.M.; Stankiewicz, A.; Santoro, G.A.; Bogusiewicz, M.; Rechberger, T.

2012-01-01

Objectives: Assessment of the urethral complex and defining its morphological characteristics with 3-dimensional endovaginal ultrasonography with the use of high frequency rotational 360° transducer. Defining inter-observer reliability of the performed measurements. Materials and methods: Twenty-four asymptomatic, nulliparous females (aged 18–55, mean 32 years) underwent high-frequency (12 MHz) endovaginal ultrasound with rotational 360° and automated 3D data acquisition (type 2050, B-K Medical, Herlev, Denmark). Measurements of the urethral thickness, width and length, bladder neck-symphysis distance, intramural part of the urethra as well as rhabdosphincter thickness, width and length were taken by three investigators. Descriptive statistics for continuous data was performed. The results were given as mean values with standard deviation. The relationships among different variables were assessed with ANOVA for repeated measures factors, as well as T-test for dependent samples. Intraclass correlation (ICC) was calculated for each parameter. Intra- and interobserver reliability was assessed. Statistical significance was assigned to a P value of 0.8) and good reliability for rhabdosphincter measurements (ICC > 0.6) between all three investigators. Conclusions: Advanced EVUS provides detailed information on anatomy and morphology of the female urethral complex. Our results show that 360° rotational transducer with automated 3D acquisition, currently routinely used for proctological scanning is suitable for the reliable assessment of the urethral complex and can be applied in a routine diagnostics of pelvic floor disturbances in females.

Renyi statistics in equilibrium statistical mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parvan, A.S.; Biro, T.S.

2010-01-01

The Renyi statistics in the canonical and microcanonical ensembles is examined both in general and in particular for the ideal gas. In the microcanonical ensemble the Renyi statistics is equivalent to the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. By the exact analytical results for the ideal gas, it is shown that in the canonical ensemble, taking the thermodynamic limit, the Renyi statistics is also equivalent to the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. Furthermore it satisfies the requirements of the equilibrium thermodynamics, i.e. the thermodynamical potential of the statistical ensemble is a homogeneous function of first degree of its extensive variables of state. We conclude that the Renyi statistics arrives at the same thermodynamical relations, as those stemming from the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics in this limit.

Reliability of Maximal Strength Testing in Novice Weightlifters

Science.gov (United States)

Loehr, James A.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori L.

2009-01-01

The one repetition maximum (1RM) is a criterion measure of muscle strength. However, the reliability of 1RM testing in novice subjects has received little attention. Understanding this information is crucial to accurately interpret changes in muscle strength. To evaluate the test-retest reliability of a squat (SQ), heel raise (HR), and deadlift (DL) 1RM in novice subjects. Twenty healthy males (31 plus or minus 5 y, 179.1 plus or minus 6.1 cm, 81.4 plus or minus 10.6 kg) with no weight training experience in the previous six months participated in four 1RM testing sessions, with each session separated by 5-7 days. SQ and HR 1RM were conducted using a smith machine; DL 1RM was assessed using free weights. Session 1 was considered a familiarization and was not included in the statistical analyses. Repeated measures analysis of variance with Tukey fs post-hoc tests were used to detect between-session differences in 1RM (p.0.05). Test-retest reliability was evaluated by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). During Session 2, the SQ and DL 1RM (SQ: 90.2 }4.3, DL: 75.9 }3.3 kg) were less than Session 3 (SQ: 95.3 }4.1, DL: 81.5 plus or minus 3.5 kg) and Session 4 (SQ: 96.6 }4.0, DL: 82.4 }3.9 kg), but there were no differences between Session 3 and Session 4. HR 1RM measured during Session 2 (150.1 }3.7 kg) and Session 3 (152.5 }3.9 kg) were not different from one another, but both were less than Session 4 (157.5 }3.8 kg). The reliability (ICC) of 1RM measures for Sessions 2-4 were 0.88, 0.83, and 0.87, for SQ, HR, and DL, respectively. When considering only Sessions 3 and 4, the reliability was 0.93, 0.91, and 0.86 for SQ, HR, and DL, respectively. One familiarization session and 2 test sessions (for SQ and DL) were required to obtain excellent reliability (ICC greater than or equal to 0.90) in 1RM values with novice subjects. We were unable to attain this level of reliability following 3 HR testing sessions therefore additional sessions may be required to obtain an