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Sample records for reliability simulation method

  1. Evaluation of structural reliability using simulation methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baballëku Markel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Eurocode describes the 'index of reliability' as a measure of structural reliability, related to the 'probability of failure'. This paper is focused on the assessment of this index for a reinforced concrete bridge pier. It is rare to explicitly use reliability concepts for design of structures, but the problems of structural engineering are better known through them. Some of the main methods for the estimation of the probability of failure are the exact analytical integration, numerical integration, approximate analytical methods and simulation methods. Monte Carlo Simulation is used in this paper, because it offers a very good tool for the estimation of probability in multivariate functions. Complicated probability and statistics problems are solved through computer aided simulations of a large number of tests. The procedures of structural reliability assessment for the bridge pier and the comparison with the partial factor method of the Eurocodes have been demonstrated in this paper.

  2. Reliability analysis of neutron transport simulation using Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Bismarck A. de; Borges, Jose C.

    1995-01-01

    This work presents a statistical and reliability analysis covering data obtained by computer simulation of neutron transport process, using the Monte Carlo method. A general description of the method and its applications is presented. Several simulations, corresponding to slowing down and shielding problems have been accomplished. The influence of the physical dimensions of the materials and of the sample size on the reliability level of results was investigated. The objective was to optimize the sample size, in order to obtain reliable results, optimizing computation time. (author). 5 refs, 8 figs

  3. Limitations in simulator time-based human reliability analysis methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wreathall, J.

    1989-01-01

    Developments in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have evolved slowly. Current methods are little changed from those of almost a decade ago, particularly in the use of time-reliability relationships. While these methods were suitable as an interim step, the time (and the need) has come to specify the next evolution of HRA methods. As with any performance-oriented data source, power plant simulator data have no direct connection to HRA models. Errors reported in data are normal deficiencies observed in human performance; failures are events modeled in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Not all errors cause failures; not all failures are caused by errors. Second, the times at which actions are taken provide no measure of the likelihood of failures to act correctly within an accident scenario. Inferences can be made about human reliability, but they must be made with great care. Specific limitations are discussed. Simulator performance data are useful in providing qualitative evidence of the variety of error types and their potential influences on operating systems. More work is required to combine recent developments in the psychology of error with the qualitative data collected at stimulators. Until data become openly available, however, such an advance will not be practical

  4. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation is one of the best tools for performing realistic analysis of complex systems as it allows most of the limiting assumptions on system behavior to be relaxed. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis comprehensively illustrates the Monte Carlo simulation method and its application to reliability and system engineering. Readers are given a sound understanding of the fundamentals of Monte Carlo sampling and simulation and its application for realistic system modeling.   Whilst many of the topics rely on a high-level understanding of calculus, probability and statistics, simple academic examples will be provided in support to the explanation of the theoretical foundations to facilitate comprehension of the subject matter. Case studies will be introduced to provide the practical value of the most advanced techniques.   This detailed approach makes The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis a key reference for senior undergra...

  5. Reliability Assessment of Active Distribution System Using Monte Carlo Simulation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaoyun Ge

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we have treated the reliability assessment problem of low and high DG penetration level of active distribution system using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The problem is formulated as a two-case program, the program of low penetration simulation and the program of high penetration simulation. The load shedding strategy and the simulation process were introduced in detail during each FMEA process. Results indicate that the integration of DG can improve the reliability of the system if the system was operated actively.

  6. Data collection on the unit control room simulator as a method of operator reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holy, J.

    1998-01-01

    The report consists of the following chapters: (1) Probabilistic assessment of nuclear power plant operation safety and human factor reliability analysis; (2) Simulators and simulations as human reliability analysis tools; (3) DOE project for using the collection and analysis of data from the unit control room simulator in human factor reliability analysis at the Paks nuclear power plant; (4) General requirements for the organization of the simulator data collection project; (5) Full-scale simulator at the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute in Trnava, Slovakia, used as a training means for operators of the Dukovany NPP; (6) Assessment of the feasibility of quantification of important human actions modelled within a PSA study by employing simulator data analysis; (7) Assessment of the feasibility of using the various exercise topics for the quantification of the PSA model; (8) Assessment of the feasibility of employing the simulator in the analysis of the individual factors affecting the operator's activity; and (9) Examples of application of statistical methods in the analysis of the human reliability factor. (P.A.)

  7. Investigation of Reliabilities of Bolt Distances for Bolted Structural Steel Connections by Monte Carlo Simulation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ertekin Öztekin Öztekin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Design of the distance of bolts to each other and design of the distance of bolts to the edge of connection plates are made based on minimum and maximum boundary values proposed by structural codes. In this study, reliabilities of those distances were investigated. For this purpose, loading types, bolt types and plate thicknesses were taken as variable parameters. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS method was used in the reliability computations performed for all combination of those parameters. At the end of study, all reliability index values for all those distances were presented in graphics and tables. Results obtained from this study compared with the values proposed by some structural codes and finally some evaluations were made about those comparisons. Finally, It was emphasized in the end of study that, it would be incorrect of the usage of the same bolt distances in the both traditional designs and the higher reliability level designs.

  8. Use of simulation methods in the evaluation of reliability and availability of complex system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maigret, N.; Duchemin, B.; Robert, T.; Villeneuve, J.J. de; Lanore, J.M.

    1982-04-01

    After a short review of the available standard methods in the reliability field like Boolean algebra for fault tree and the semi-regeneration theory for Markov, this paper shows how the BIAF code based on state description of a system and simulation techique can solve many problems. It also shows how the use of importance sampling and biasing techniques allows us to deal with the rare event problem

  9. Reliability Verification of DBE Environment Simulation Test Facility by using Statistics Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Kyung Nam; Kim, Jong Soeg; Jeong, Sun Chul; Kyung Heum

    2011-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, all the safety-related equipment including cables under the harsh environment should perform the equipment qualification (EQ) according to the IEEE std 323. There are three types of qualification methods including type testing, operating experience and analysis. In order to environmentally qualify the safety-related equipment using type testing method, not analysis or operation experience method, the representative sample of equipment, including interfaces, should be subjected to a series of tests. Among these tests, Design Basis Events (DBE) environment simulating test is the most important test. DBE simulation test is performed in DBE simulation test chamber according to the postulated DBE conditions including specified high-energy line break (HELB), loss of coolant accident (LOCA), main steam line break (MSLB) and etc, after thermal and radiation aging. Because most DBE conditions have 100% humidity condition, in order to trace temperature and pressure of DBE condition, high temperature steam should be used. During DBE simulation test, if high temperature steam under high pressure inject to the DBE test chamber, the temperature and pressure in test chamber rapidly increase over the target temperature. Therefore, the temperature and pressure in test chamber continue fluctuating during the DBE simulation test to meet target temperature and pressure. We should ensure fairness and accuracy of test result by confirming the performance of DBE environment simulation test facility. In this paper, in order to verify reliability of DBE environment simulation test facility, statistics method is used

  10. Network reliability analysis of complex systems using a non-simulation-based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Youngsuk; Kang, Won-Hee

    2013-01-01

    Civil infrastructures such as transportation, water supply, sewers, telecommunications, and electrical and gas networks often establish highly complex networks, due to their multiple source and distribution nodes, complex topology, and functional interdependence between network components. To understand the reliability of such complex network system under catastrophic events such as earthquakes and to provide proper emergency management actions under such situation, efficient and accurate reliability analysis methods are necessary. In this paper, a non-simulation-based network reliability analysis method is developed based on the Recursive Decomposition Algorithm (RDA) for risk assessment of generic networks whose operation is defined by the connections of multiple initial and terminal node pairs. The proposed method has two separate decomposition processes for two logical functions, intersection and union, and combinations of these processes are used for the decomposition of any general system event with multiple node pairs. The proposed method is illustrated through numerical network examples with a variety of system definitions, and is applied to a benchmark gas transmission pipe network in Memphis TN to estimate the seismic performance and functional degradation of the network under a set of earthquake scenarios.

  11. Reliability-based design optimization using a generalized subset simulation method and posterior approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yuan-Zhuo; Li, Hong-Shuang; Yao, Wei-Xing

    2018-05-01

    The evaluation of the probabilistic constraints in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems has always been significant and challenging work, which strongly affects the performance of RBDO methods. This article deals with RBDO problems using a recently developed generalized subset simulation (GSS) method and a posterior approximation approach. The posterior approximation approach is used to transform all the probabilistic constraints into ordinary constraints as in deterministic optimization. The assessment of multiple failure probabilities required by the posterior approximation approach is achieved by GSS in a single run at all supporting points, which are selected by a proper experimental design scheme combining Sobol' sequences and Bucher's design. Sequentially, the transformed deterministic design optimization problem can be solved by optimization algorithms, for example, the sequential quadratic programming method. Three optimization problems are used to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

  12. A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

  13. Transition from Partial Factors Method to Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment in Structural Design

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Marek, Pavel; Guštar, M.; Permaul, K.

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (1999), s. 105-118 ISSN 0266-8920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA103/94/0562; GA ČR GV103/96/K034 Keywords : reliability * safety * failure * durability * Monte Carlo method Subject RIV: JM - Building Engineering Impact factor: 0.522, year: 1999

  14. Reliable methods for computer simulation error control and a posteriori estimates

    CERN Document Server

    Neittaanmäki, P

    2004-01-01

    Recent decades have seen a very rapid success in developing numerical methods based on explicit control over approximation errors. It may be said that nowadays a new direction is forming in numerical analysis, the main goal of which is to develop methods ofreliable computations. In general, a reliable numerical method must solve two basic problems: (a) generate a sequence of approximations that converges to a solution and (b) verify the accuracy of these approximations. A computer code for such a method must consist of two respective blocks: solver and checker.In this book, we are chie

  15. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  16. Structural Reliability Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

    The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....

  17. Reliable Viscosity Calculation from Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics Simulations: A Time Decomposition Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Otani, Akihito; Maginn, Edward J

    2015-08-11

    Equilibrium molecular dynamics is often used in conjunction with a Green-Kubo integral of the pressure tensor autocorrelation function to compute the shear viscosity of fluids. This approach is computationally expensive and is subject to a large amount of variability because the plateau region of the Green-Kubo integral is difficult to identify unambiguously. Here, we propose a time decomposition approach for computing the shear viscosity using the Green-Kubo formalism. Instead of one long trajectory, multiple independent trajectories are run and the Green-Kubo relation is applied to each trajectory. The averaged running integral as a function of time is fit to a double-exponential function with a weighting function derived from the standard deviation of the running integrals. Such a weighting function minimizes the uncertainty of the estimated shear viscosity and provides an objective means of estimating the viscosity. While the formal Green-Kubo integral requires an integration to infinite time, we suggest an integration cutoff time tcut, which can be determined by the relative values of the running integral and the corresponding standard deviation. This approach for computing the shear viscosity can be easily automated and used in computational screening studies where human judgment and intervention in the data analysis are impractical. The method has been applied to the calculation of the shear viscosity of a relatively low-viscosity liquid, ethanol, and relatively high-viscosity ionic liquid, 1-n-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethane-sulfonyl)imide ([BMIM][Tf2N]), over a range of temperatures. These test cases show that the method is robust and yields reproducible and reliable shear viscosity values.

  18. Validity and Reliability of Orthodontic Loops between Mechanical Testing and Computer Simulation: An Finite Element Method Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaurav Sepolia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The magnitude and direction of orthodontic force is one of the essential concerns of orthodontic tooth movements. Excessive force may cause root resorption and mobility of the tooth, whereas low force level may results in prolonged treatment. The addition of loops allows the clinician to more accurately achieve the desired results. Aims and objectives: The purpose of the study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of orthodontic loops between mechanical testing and computer simulation. Materials and methods: Different types of loops were taken and divided into four groups: The Teardrop loop, Opus loop, L loop and T loop. These were artificially activated for multiple lengths and studied using the FEM. Results: The Teardrop loop showed the highest force level, and there is no significant difference between mechanical testing and computer simulation.

  19. Reliability of analog quantum simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarovar, Mohan [Sandia National Laboratories, Digital and Quantum Information Systems, Livermore, CA (United States); Zhang, Jun; Zeng, Lishan [Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Joint Institute of UMich-SJTU, Key Laboratory of System Control and Information Processing (MOE), Shanghai (China)

    2017-12-15

    Analog quantum simulators (AQS) will likely be the first nontrivial application of quantum technology for predictive simulation. However, there remain questions regarding the degree of confidence that can be placed in the results of AQS since they do not naturally incorporate error correction. Specifically, how do we know whether an analog simulation of a quantum model will produce predictions that agree with the ideal model in the presence of inevitable imperfections? At the same time there is a widely held expectation that certain quantum simulation questions will be robust to errors and perturbations in the underlying hardware. Resolving these two points of view is a critical step in making the most of this promising technology. In this work we formalize the notion of AQS reliability by determining sensitivity of AQS outputs to underlying parameters, and formulate conditions for robust simulation. Our approach naturally reveals the importance of model symmetries in dictating the robust properties. To demonstrate the approach, we characterize the robust features of a variety of quantum many-body models. (orig.)

  20. THE SIMULATION DIAGNOSTIC METHODS AND REGENERATION WAYS OF REINFORCED - CONCRETE CONSTRUCTIONS OF BRIDGES IN PROVIDING THEIR OPERATING RELIABILITY AND LONGEVITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. V. Savchinskiy

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of analysis of existing diagnostic methods and regeneration ways of reinforced-concrete constructions of bridges the recommendations on introduction of new modern technologies of renewal of reinforced-concrete constructions of bridges in providing their operating reliability and longevity are offered.

  1. THE SIMULATION DIAGNOSTIC METHODS AND REGENERATION WAYS OF REINFORCED - CONCRETE CONSTRUCTIONS OF BRIDGES IN PROVIDING THEIR OPERATING RELIABILITY AND LONGEVITY

    OpenAIRE

    B. V. Savchinskiy

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of analysis of existing diagnostic methods and regeneration ways of reinforced-concrete constructions of bridges the recommendations on introduction of new modern technologies of renewal of reinforced-concrete constructions of bridges in providing their operating reliability and longevity are offered.

  2. Reliability Testing Using the Vehicle Durability Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-20

    techniques are employed to reduce test and simulation time. Through application of these processes and techniques the reliability characteristics...remote parameter control (RPC) software. The software is specifically designed for the data collection, analysis, and simulation processes outlined in...the selection process for determining the desired runs for simulation . 4.3 Drive File Development. After the data have been reviewed and

  3. Simulation and Non-Simulation Based Human Reliability Analysis Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk model. In this report, we review simulation-based and non-simulation-based human reliability assessment (HRA) methods. Chapter 2 surveys non-simulation-based HRA methods. Conventional HRA methods target static Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Level 1 events. These methods would require significant modification for use in dynamic simulation of Level 2 and Level 3 events. Chapter 3 is a review of human performance models. A variety of methods and models simulate dynamic human performance; however, most of these human performance models were developed outside the risk domain and have not been used for HRA. The exception is the ADS-IDAC model, which can be thought of as a virtual operator program. This model is resource-intensive but provides a detailed model of every operator action in a given scenario, along with models of numerous factors that can influence operator performance. Finally, Chapter 4 reviews the treatment of timing of operator actions in HRA methods. This chapter is an example of one of the critical gaps between existing HRA methods and the needs of dynamic HRA. This report summarizes the foundational information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human interactions in the RISMC simulations.

  4. Probabilistic simulation applications to reliability assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Ian; Nutt, Mark W.; Hill, Ralph S. III

    2003-01-01

    Probabilistic risk/reliability (PRA) analyses for engineered systems are conventionally based on fault-tree methods. These methods are mature and efficient, and are well suited to systems consisting of interacting components with known, low probabilities of failure. Even complex systems, such as nuclear power plants or aircraft, are modeled by the careful application of these approaches. However, for systems that may evolve in complex and nonlinear ways, and where the performance of components may be a sensitive function of the history of their working environments, fault-tree methods can be very demanding. This paper proposes an alternative method of evaluating such systems, based on probabilistic simulation using intelligent software objects to represent the components of such systems. Using a Monte Carlo approach, simulation models can be constructed from relatively simple interacting objects that capture the essential behavior of the components that they represent. Such models are capable of reflecting the complex behaviors of the systems that they represent in a natural and realistic way. (author)

  5. Reliability analysis using network simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engi, D.

    1985-01-01

    The models that can be used to provide estimates of the reliability of nuclear power systems operate at many different levels of sophistication. The least-sophisticated models treat failure processes that entail only time-independent phenomena (such as demand failure). More advanced models treat processes that also include time-dependent phenomena such as run failure and possibly repair. However, many of these dynamic models are deficient in some respects because they either disregard the time-dependent phenomena that cannot be expressed in closed-form analytic terms or because they treat these phenomena in quasi-static terms. The next level of modeling requires a dynamic approach that incorporates not only procedures for treating all significant time-dependent phenomena but also procedures for treating these phenomena when they are conditionally linked or characterized by arbitrarily selected probability distributions. The level of sophistication that is required is provided by a dynamic, Monte Carlo modeling approach. A computer code that uses a dynamic, Monte Carlo modeling approach is Q-GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique - with Queueing), and the present study had demonstrated the feasibility of using Q-GERT for modeling time-dependent, unconditionally and conditionally linked phenomena that are characterized by arbitrarily selected probability distributions

  6. Reliability assessment of restructured power systems using reliability network equivalent and pseudo-sequential simulation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Yi; Wang, Peng; Goel, Lalit; Billinton, Roy; Karki, Rajesh

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a technique to evaluate reliability of a restructured power system with a bilateral market. The proposed technique is based on the combination of the reliability network equivalent and pseudo-sequential simulation approaches. The reliability network equivalent techniques have been implemented in the Monte Carlo simulation procedure to reduce the computational burden of the analysis. Pseudo-sequential simulation has been used to increase the computational efficiency of the non-sequential simulation method and to model the chronological aspects of market trading and system operation. Multi-state Markov models for generation and transmission systems are proposed and implemented in the simulation. A new load shedding scheme is proposed during generation inadequacy and network congestion to minimize the load curtailment. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is used to illustrate the technique. (author)

  7. A general software reliability process simulation technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1991-01-01

    The structure and rationale of the generalized software reliability process, together with the design and implementation of a computer program that simulates this process are described. Given assumed parameters of a particular project, the users of this program are able to generate simulated status timelines of work products, numbers of injected anomalies, and the progress of testing, fault isolation, repair, validation, and retest. Such timelines are useful in comparison with actual timeline data, for validating the project input parameters, and for providing data for researchers in reliability prediction modeling.

  8. Subset simulation for structural reliability sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Shufang; Lu Zhenzhou; Qiao Hongwei

    2009-01-01

    Based on two procedures for efficiently generating conditional samples, i.e. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and importance sampling (IS), two reliability sensitivity (RS) algorithms are presented. On the basis of reliability analysis of Subset simulation (Subsim), the RS of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable is transformed as a set of RS of conditional failure probabilities with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable. By use of the conditional samples generated by MCMC simulation and IS, procedures are established to estimate the RS of the conditional failure probabilities. The formulae of the RS estimator, its variance and its coefficient of variation are derived in detail. The results of the illustrations show high efficiency and high precision of the presented algorithms, and it is suitable for highly nonlinear limit state equation and structural system with single and multiple failure modes

  9. Application of reliability methods in Ontario Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeppesen, R.; Ravishankar, T.J.

    1985-01-01

    Ontario Hydro have established a reliability program in support of its substantial nuclear program. Application of the reliability program to achieve both production and safety goals is described. The value of such a reliability program is evident in the record of Ontario Hydro's operating nuclear stations. The factors which have contributed to the success of the reliability program are identified as line management's commitment to reliability; selective and judicious application of reliability methods; establishing performance goals and monitoring the in-service performance; and collection, distribution, review and utilization of performance information to facilitate cost-effective achievement of goals and improvements. (orig.)

  10. Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tee, Kong Fah; Khan, Lutfor Rahman; Li, Hongshuang

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction

  11. SIERRA - A 3-D device simulator for reliability modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chern, Jue-Hsien; Arledge, Lawrence A., Jr.; Yang, Ping; Maeda, John T.

    1989-05-01

    SIERRA is a three-dimensional general-purpose semiconductor-device simulation program which serves as a foundation for investigating integrated-circuit (IC) device and reliability issues. This program solves the Poisson and continuity equations in silicon under dc, transient, and small-signal conditions. Executing on a vector/parallel minisupercomputer, SIERRA utilizes a matrix solver which uses an incomplete LU (ILU) preconditioned conjugate gradient square (CGS, BCG) method. The ILU-CGS method provides a good compromise between memory size and convergence rate. The authors have observed a 5x to 7x speedup over standard direct methods in simulations of transient problems containing highly coupled Poisson and continuity equations such as those found in reliability-oriented simulations. The application of SIERRA to parasitic CMOS latchup and dynamic random-access memory single-event-upset studies is described.

  12. Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional approaches...

  13. A novel reliability evaluation method for large engineering systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reda Farag

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A novel reliability evaluation method for large nonlinear engineering systems excited by dynamic loading applied in time domain is presented. For this class of problems, the performance functions are expected to be function of time and implicit in nature. Available first- or second-order reliability method (FORM/SORM will be challenging to estimate reliability of such systems. Because of its inefficiency, the classical Monte Carlo simulation (MCS method also cannot be used for large nonlinear dynamic systems. In the proposed approach, only tens instead of hundreds or thousands of deterministic evaluations at intelligently selected points are used to extract the reliability information. A hybrid approach, consisting of the stochastic finite element method (SFEM developed by the author and his research team using FORM, response surface method (RSM, an interpolation scheme, and advanced factorial schemes, is proposed. The method is clarified with the help of several numerical examples.

  14. A Method of Nuclear Software Reliability Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Gee Yong; Eom, Heung Seop; Cheon, Se Woo; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2011-01-01

    A method on estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM) where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow the non-homogeneous Poisson process. Several modeling schemes are presented in order to estimate and predict more precisely the number of software defects based on a few of software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating the software test cases into the model. It is identified that this method is capable of accurately estimating the remaining number of software defects which are on-demand type directly affecting safety trip functions. The software reliability can be estimated from a model equation and one method of obtaining the software reliability is proposed

  15. Science Based Human Reliability Analysis: Using Digital Nuclear Power Plant Simulators for Human Reliability Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth

    Nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators are proliferating in academic research institutions and national laboratories in response to the availability of affordable, digital simulator platforms. Accompanying the new research facilities is a renewed interest in using data collected in NPP simulators for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) research. An experiment conducted in The Ohio State University (OSU) NPP Simulator Facility develops data collection methods and analytical tools to improve use of simulator data in HRA. In the pilot experiment, student operators respond to design basis accidents in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility. Thirty-three undergraduate and graduate engineering students participated in the research. Following each accident scenario, student operators completed a survey about perceived simulator biases and watched a video of the scenario. During the video, they periodically recorded their perceived strength of significant Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) such as Stress. This dissertation reviews three aspects of simulator-based research using the data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility: First, a qualitative comparison of student operator performance to computer simulations of expected operator performance generated by the Information Decision Action Crew (IDAC) HRA method. Areas of comparison include procedure steps, timing of operator actions, and PSFs. Second, development of a quantitative model of the simulator bias introduced by the simulator environment. Two types of bias are defined: Environmental Bias and Motivational Bias. This research examines Motivational Bias--that is, the effect of the simulator environment on an operator's motivations, goals, and priorities. A bias causal map is introduced to model motivational bias interactions in the OSU experiment. Data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility are analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Data include crew characteristics, operator surveys, and time to recognize

  16. ESCAF - Failure simulation and reliability calculation device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laviron, A.; Berard, C.; Quenee, R.

    1979-01-01

    Reliability studies of nuclear power plant safety functions have, up to now, required the use of large computers. As they are of universal use, these big machines are not very well adapted to deal with reliability problems at low cost. ESCAF has been developed to be substituted for large computers in order to save time and money. ESCAF is a small electronic device which can be used in connection with a minicomputer. It allows to perform complex system reliability analysis (qualitative and quantitative) and to study critical element influences such as common cause failures. In this paper, the device is described and its features and abilities are outlined: easy to implement, swift running, low working cost. Its application range concerns all cases when a good reliability is needed

  17. Sequential optimization and reliability assessment method for metal forming processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahai, Atul; Schramm, Uwe; Buranathiti, Thaweepat; Chen Wei; Cao Jian; Xia, Cedric Z.

    2004-01-01

    Uncertainty is inevitable in any design process. The uncertainty could be due to the variations in geometry of the part, material properties or due to the lack of knowledge about the phenomena being modeled itself. Deterministic design optimization does not take uncertainty into account and worst case scenario assumptions lead to vastly over conservative design. Probabilistic design, such as reliability-based design and robust design, offers tools for making robust and reliable decisions under the presence of uncertainty in the design process. Probabilistic design optimization often involves double-loop procedure for optimization and iterative probabilistic assessment. This results in high computational demand. The high computational demand can be reduced by replacing computationally intensive simulation models with less costly surrogate models and by employing Sequential Optimization and reliability assessment (SORA) method. The SORA method uses a single-loop strategy with a series of cycles of deterministic optimization and reliability assessment. The deterministic optimization and reliability assessment is decoupled in each cycle. This leads to quick improvement of design from one cycle to other and increase in computational efficiency. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA) method when applied to designing a sheet metal flanging process. Surrogate models are used as less costly approximations to the computationally expensive Finite Element simulations

  18. Reliability of Estimation Pile Load Capacity Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yudhi Lastiasih

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available None of numerous previous methods for predicting pile capacity is known how accurate any of them are when compared with the actual ultimate capacity of piles tested to failure. The author’s of the present paper have conducted such an analysis, based on 130 data sets of field loading tests. Out of these 130 data sets, only 44 could be analysed, of which 15 were conducted until the piles actually reached failure. The pile prediction methods used were: Brinch Hansen’s method (1963, Chin’s method (1970, Decourt’s Extrapolation Method (1999, Mazurkiewicz’s method (1972, Van der Veen’s method (1953, and the Quadratic Hyperbolic Method proposed by Lastiasih et al. (2012. It was obtained that all the above methods were sufficiently reliable when applied to data from pile loading tests that loaded to reach failure. However, when applied to data from pile loading tests that loaded without reaching failure, the methods that yielded lower values for correction factor N are more recommended. Finally, the empirical method of Reese and O’Neill (1988 was found to be reliable enough to be used to estimate the Qult of a pile foundation based on soil data only.

  19. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  20. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  1. Reliability modelling and simulation of switched linear system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reliability modelling and simulation of switched linear system control using temporal databases. ... design of fault-tolerant real-time switching systems control and modelling embedded micro-schedulers for complex systems maintenance.

  2. Fatigue damage estimation in non-linear systems using a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    For non-linear systems the estimation of fatigue damage under stochastic loadings can be rather time-consuming. Usually Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is applied, but the coefficient-of-variation (COV) can be large if only a small set of simulations can be done due to otherwise excessive CPU time...

  3. GEM simulation methods development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tikhonov, V.; Veenhof, R.

    2002-01-01

    A review of methods used in the simulation of processes in gas electron multipliers (GEMs) and in the accurate calculation of detector characteristics is presented. Such detector characteristics as effective gas gain, transparency, charge collection and losses have been calculated and optimized for a number of GEM geometries and compared with experiment. A method and a new special program for calculations of detector macro-characteristics such as signal response in a real detector readout structure, and spatial and time resolution of detectors have been developed and used for detector optimization. A detailed development of signal induction on readout electrodes and electronics characteristics are included in the new program. A method for the simulation of charging-up effects in GEM detectors is described. All methods show good agreement with experiment

  4. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods: A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald L.; Hendrickson, Stacey M.L.; Forester, John A.; Tran, Tuan Q.; Lois, Erasmia

    2010-01-01

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study comparing and evaluating HRA methods in assessing operator performance in simulator experiments is currently underway. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies is presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  5. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lois, Erasmia (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission); Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt; Boring, Ronald L. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID)

    2008-04-01

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  6. Review of Quantitative Software Reliability Methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chu, T.L.; Yue, M.; Martinez-Guridi, M.; Lehner, J.

    2010-09-17

    The current U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing process for digital systems rests on deterministic engineering criteria. In its 1995 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) policy statement, the Commission encouraged the use of PRA technology in all regulatory matters to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although many activities have been completed in the area of risk-informed regulation, the risk-informed analysis process for digital systems has not yet been satisfactorily developed. Since digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are expected to play an increasingly important role in nuclear power plant (NPP) safety, the NRC established a digital system research plan that defines a coherent set of research programs to support its regulatory needs. One of the research programs included in the NRC's digital system research plan addresses risk assessment methods and data for digital systems. Digital I&C systems have some unique characteristics, such as using software, and may have different failure causes and/or modes than analog I&C systems; hence, their incorporation into NPP PRAs entails special challenges. The objective of the NRC's digital system risk research is to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems into NPP PRAs, and (2) using information on the risks of digital systems to support the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities. For several years, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has worked on NRC projects to investigate methods and tools for the probabilistic modeling of digital systems, as documented mainly in NUREG/CR-6962 and NUREG/CR-6997. However, the scope of this research principally focused on hardware failures, with limited reviews of software failure experience and software reliability methods. NRC also sponsored research at the Ohio State University investigating the modeling of

  7. Structural reliability methods: Code development status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

    1991-05-01

    The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

  8. Human reliability analysis methods for probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.

    2000-11-01

    Human reliability analysis (HRA) of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) includes identifying human actions from safety point of view, modelling the most important of them in PSA models, and assessing their probabilities. As manifested by many incidents and studies, human actions may have both positive and negative effect on safety and economy. Human reliability analysis is one of the areas of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) that has direct applications outside the nuclear industry. The thesis focuses upon developments in human reliability analysis methods and data. The aim is to support PSA by extending the applicability of HRA. The thesis consists of six publications and a summary. The summary includes general considerations and a discussion about human actions in the nuclear power plant (NPP) environment. A condensed discussion about the results of the attached publications is then given, including new development in methods and data. At the end of the summary part, the contribution of the publications to good practice in HRA is presented. In the publications, studies based on the collection of data on maintenance-related failures, simulator runs and expert judgement are presented in order to extend the human reliability analysis database. Furthermore, methodological frameworks are presented to perform a comprehensive HRA, including shutdown conditions, to study reliability of decision making, and to study the effects of wrong human actions. In the last publication, an interdisciplinary approach to analysing human decision making is presented. The publications also include practical applications of the presented methodological frameworks. (orig.)

  9. Simulator training and human factor reliability in Kozloduy NPP, Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoychev, Kosta

    2007-01-01

    This is a PowerPoint presentation. Situated in North Bulgaria, in the vicinity of the town of Kozloduy, near the Danube River bank, there is the Bulgarian Kozloduy Nuclear Power plant operating four WWER-440 and two WWER-1000 units. Units 1 and 2 were commissioned in July, 1974 and November, 1975, respectively. These were shut down at the end of 2003. Units 3 and 4 were commissioned in December, 1980 and May, 1982. They were shut down at the end of 2006 as a precondition for Bulgaria's accession to the European Union. The 1000 MW units 5 and 6 of Kozloduy NPP were commissioned in September, 1988 and December, 1993, respectively. Large-scale modernization have been implemented and now the units meet all international safety standards. The paper describes the multifunctional simulator Kozloduy NPP for the operational staff training. The training stages are as follows: - Preparatory; -Theoretical studies; - Training at the Training Centre by means of technical devices; - Preparation and sitting for an exam before a Kozloduy NPP expert commission; - Simulator training ; - Preparation to obtain a permit for a license, corresponding to the position to begin work at the NPP; - Exams before the Nuclear Regulatory Agency (NRA) and licensing; - Shadow training at the working place; - Permission for unaided operation. The following positions are addressed by the simulator training: - Chief Plant Supervisor; - Shift Unit Supervisor; - Senior Reactor Operator; - Simulator Instructor; - Controller physicist; -Senior Turbine Operator; - Senior Operator of Turbine Feedwater Pumps of Kozloduy NPP. Improving of training method led to a reduction of number of significant events while worldwide practice proves that improvement of engineering resulted in an increase in the percentage of events, related to human factor. Analysis of human reliability in 2005 and 2006 in cooperation with representatives from Great Britain and the Technical University in Sofia were worked on the DTI NSP B

  10. Structural reliability calculation method based on the dual neural network and direct integration method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haibin; He, Yun; Nie, Xiaobo

    2018-01-01

    Structural reliability analysis under uncertainty is paid wide attention by engineers and scholars due to reflecting the structural characteristics and the bearing actual situation. The direct integration method, started from the definition of reliability theory, is easy to be understood, but there are still mathematics difficulties in the calculation of multiple integrals. Therefore, a dual neural network method is proposed for calculating multiple integrals in this paper. Dual neural network consists of two neural networks. The neural network A is used to learn the integrand function, and the neural network B is used to simulate the original function. According to the derivative relationships between the network output and the network input, the neural network B is derived from the neural network A. On this basis, the performance function of normalization is employed in the proposed method to overcome the difficulty of multiple integrations and to improve the accuracy for reliability calculations. The comparisons between the proposed method and Monte Carlo simulation method, Hasofer-Lind method, the mean value first-order second moment method have demonstrated that the proposed method is an efficient and accurate reliability method for structural reliability problems.

  11. An Evaluation Method of Equipment Reliability Configuration Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Feng, Weijia; Zhang, Wei; Li, Yuan

    2018-01-01

    At present, many equipment development companies have been aware of the great significance of reliability of the equipment development. But, due to the lack of effective management evaluation method, it is very difficult for the equipment development company to manage its own reliability work. Evaluation method of equipment reliability configuration management is to determine the reliability management capabilities of equipment development company. Reliability is not only designed, but also managed to achieve. This paper evaluates the reliability management capabilities by reliability configuration capability maturity model(RCM-CMM) evaluation method.

  12. Validation of Land Cover Products Using Reliability Evaluation Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenzhong Shi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Validation of land cover products is a fundamental task prior to data applications. Current validation schemes and methods are, however, suited only for assessing classification accuracy and disregard the reliability of land cover products. The reliability evaluation of land cover products should be undertaken to provide reliable land cover information. In addition, the lack of high-quality reference data often constrains validation and affects the reliability results of land cover products. This study proposes a validation schema to evaluate the reliability of land cover products, including two methods, namely, result reliability evaluation and process reliability evaluation. Result reliability evaluation computes the reliability of land cover products using seven reliability indicators. Process reliability evaluation analyzes the reliability propagation in the data production process to obtain the reliability of land cover products. Fuzzy fault tree analysis is introduced and improved in the reliability analysis of a data production process. Research results show that the proposed reliability evaluation scheme is reasonable and can be applied to validate land cover products. Through the analysis of the seven indicators of result reliability evaluation, more information on land cover can be obtained for strategic decision-making and planning, compared with traditional accuracy assessment methods. Process reliability evaluation without the need for reference data can facilitate the validation and reflect the change trends of reliabilities to some extent.

  13. Validity evidence and reliability of a simulated patient feedback instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlegel, Claudia; Woermann, Ulrich; Rethans, Jan-Joost; van der Vleuten, Cees

    2012-01-27

    In the training of healthcare professionals, one of the advantages of communication training with simulated patients (SPs) is the SP's ability to provide direct feedback to students after a simulated clinical encounter. The quality of SP feedback must be monitored, especially because it is well known that feedback can have a profound effect on student performance. Due to the current lack of valid and reliable instruments to assess the quality of SP feedback, our study examined the validity and reliability of one potential instrument, the 'modified Quality of Simulated Patient Feedback Form' (mQSF). Content validity of the mQSF was assessed by inviting experts in the area of simulated clinical encounters to rate the importance of the mQSF items. Moreover, generalizability theory was used to examine the reliability of the mQSF. Our data came from videotapes of clinical encounters between six simulated patients and six students and the ensuing feedback from the SPs to the students. Ten faculty members judged the SP feedback according to the items on the mQSF. Three weeks later, this procedure was repeated with the same faculty members and recordings. All but two items of the mQSF received importance ratings of > 2.5 on a four-point rating scale. A generalizability coefficient of 0.77 was established with two judges observing one encounter. The findings for content validity and reliability with two judges suggest that the mQSF is a valid and reliable instrument to assess the quality of feedback provided by simulated patients.

  14. Methods of channeling simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrett, J.H.

    1989-06-01

    Many computer simulation programs have been used to interpret experiments almost since the first channeling measurements were made. Certain aspects of these programs are important in how accurately they simulate ions in crystals; among these are the manner in which the structure of the crystal is incorporated, how any quantity of interest is computed, what ion-atom potential is used, how deflections are computed from the potential, incorporation of thermal vibrations of the lattice atoms, correlations of thermal vibrations, and form of stopping power. Other aspects of the programs are included to improve the speed; among these are table lookup, importance sampling, and the multiparameter method. It is desirable for programs to facilitate incorporation of special features of interest in special situations; examples are relaxations and enhanced vibrations of surface atoms, easy substitution of an alternate potential for comparison, change of row directions from layer to layer in strained-layer lattices, and different vibration amplitudes for substitutional solute or impurity atoms. Ways of implementing all of these aspects and features and the consequences of them will be discussed. 30 refs., 3 figs

  15. Binomial outcomes in dataset with some clusters of size two: can the dependence of twins be accounted for? A simulation study comparing the reliability of statistical methods based on a dataset of preterm infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odile Sauzet

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The analysis of perinatal outcomes often involves datasets with some multiple births. These are datasets mostly formed of independent observations and a limited number of clusters of size two (twins and maybe of size three or more. This non-independence needs to be accounted for in the statistical analysis. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we have previously investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of continuous outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Mixed models have been developed for binomial outcomes but very little is known about their reliability when only a limited number of small clusters are present. Methods Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of binomial outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Logistic models, several methods of estimation for the logistic random intercept models and generalised estimating equations were compared. Results The presence of even a small percentage of twins means that a logistic regression model will underestimate all parameters but a logistic random intercept model fails to estimate the correlation between siblings if the percentage of twins is too small and will provide similar estimates to logistic regression. The method which seems to provide the best balance between estimation of the standard error and the parameter for any percentage of twins is the generalised estimating equations. Conclusions This study has shown that the number of covariates or the level two variance do not necessarily affect the performance of the various methods used to analyse datasets containing twins but when the percentage of small clusters is too small, mixed models cannot capture the dependence between siblings.

  16. High Speed Simulation Framework for Reliable Logic Programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Wan-Bok; Kim, Seog-Ju

    2006-01-01

    This paper shows a case study of designing a PLC logic simulator that was developed to simulate and verify PLC control programs for nuclear plant systems. The nuclear control system requires strict restrictions rather than normal process control system does, since it works with nuclear power plants requiring high reliability under severe environment. One restriction is the safeness of the control programs which can be assured by exploiting severe testing. Another restriction is the simulation speed of the control programs, that should be fast enough to control multi devices concurrently in real-time. To cope with these restrictions, we devised a logic compiler which generates C-code programs from given PLC logic programs. Once the logic program was translated into C-code, the program could be analyzed by conventional software analysis tools and could be used to construct a fast logic simulator after cross-compiling, in fact, that is a kind of compiled-code simulation

  17. Towards a non-wired simulator for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurvillier, I.; Laviron, A.; Blin, A.

    1991-11-01

    This paper outlines the objectives and preliminary results of a research programme aiming to increase the advantages of electronic simulators used for reliability studies of complex systems. Research work has resulted in the design of a device based on an electronic simulator capable of carrying out all types of simulation without the drawback of wiring, as is currently the case. Its performance levels as regards speed are comparable to those of wired simulators and this is its main advantage over studies made on a computer. In addition, the simulator is connected to a computer which greatly increases system flexibility and user-friendliness. The first results obtained illustrate what characteristics can be expected of such a system, both as regards the anticipated computation time and the extended processing capabilities (such as the study of common cause failures). (author) [fr

  18. Towards a non-wired simulator for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blin, A.; Laviron, A.; Jurvillier, I.

    1991-08-01

    This paper outlines the objectives and preliminary results of a research programme aiming to increase the advantages of electronic simulators used for reliability studies of complex systems. Research work has resulted in the design of a device based on an electronic simulator capable of carrying out all types of simulation without the drawback of wiring, as is currently the case. Its performance levels as regards speed are comparable to those of wired simulators and this is its main advantage over studies made on a computer. In addition, the simulator is connected to a computer which greatly increases system flexibility and user-friendliness. The first results obtained illustrate what characteristics can be expected of such a system, both as regards the anticipated computation time and the extended processing capabilities (such as the study of common cause failures)

  19. Assessment and Improving Methods of Reliability Indices in Bakhtar Regional Electricity Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Shahrezaei

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Reliability of a system is the ability of a system to do prospected duties in future and the probability of desirable operation for doing predetermined duties. Power system elements failures data are the main data of reliability assessment in the network. Determining antiseptic parameters is the goal of reliability assessment by using system history data. These parameters help to recognize week points of the system. In other words, the goal of reliability assessment is operation improving and decreasing of the failures and power outages. This paper is developed to assess reliability indices of Bakhtar Regional Electricity Company up to 1393 and the improving methods and their effects on the reliability indices in this network. DIgSILENT Power Factory software is employed for simulation. Simulation results show the positive effect of improving methods in reliability indices of Bakhtar Regional Electricity Company.

  20. Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon

    2013-01-01

    as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine...

  1. Binomial outcomes in dataset with some clusters of size two: can the dependence of twins be accounted for? A simulation study comparing the reliability of statistical methods based on a dataset of preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauzet, Odile; Peacock, Janet L

    2017-07-20

    The analysis of perinatal outcomes often involves datasets with some multiple births. These are datasets mostly formed of independent observations and a limited number of clusters of size two (twins) and maybe of size three or more. This non-independence needs to be accounted for in the statistical analysis. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we have previously investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of continuous outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Mixed models have been developed for binomial outcomes but very little is known about their reliability when only a limited number of small clusters are present. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of binomial outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Logistic models, several methods of estimation for the logistic random intercept models and generalised estimating equations were compared. The presence of even a small percentage of twins means that a logistic regression model will underestimate all parameters but a logistic random intercept model fails to estimate the correlation between siblings if the percentage of twins is too small and will provide similar estimates to logistic regression. The method which seems to provide the best balance between estimation of the standard error and the parameter for any percentage of twins is the generalised estimating equations. This study has shown that the number of covariates or the level two variance do not necessarily affect the performance of the various methods used to analyse datasets containing twins but when the percentage of small clusters is too small, mixed models cannot capture the dependence between siblings.

  2. Application of system reliability analytical method, GO-FLOW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuoka, Takeshi; Fukuto, Junji; Mitomo, Nobuo; Miyazaki, Keiko; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Kobayashi, Michiyuki

    1999-01-01

    The Ship Research Institute proceed a developmental study on GO-FLOW method with various advancing functionalities for the system reliability analysis method occupying main parts of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). Here was attempted to intend to upgrade functionality of the GO-FLOW method, to develop an analytical function integrated with dynamic behavior analytical function, physical behavior and probable subject transfer, and to prepare a main accident sequence picking-out function. In 1997 fiscal year, in dynamic event-tree analytical system, an analytical function was developed by adding dependency between headings. In simulation analytical function of the accident sequence, main accident sequence of MRX for improved ship propulsion reactor became possible to be covered perfectly. And, input data for analysis was prepared with a function capable easily to set by an analysis operator. (G.K.)

  3. Fast Reliability Assessing Method for Distribution Network with Distributed Renewable Energy Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fan; Huang, Shaoxiong; Ding, Jinjin; Ding, Jinjin; Gao, Bo; Xie, Yuguang; Wang, Xiaoming

    2018-01-01

    This paper proposes a fast reliability assessing method for distribution grid with distributed renewable energy generation. First, the Weibull distribution and the Beta distribution are used to describe the probability distribution characteristics of wind speed and solar irradiance respectively, and the models of wind farm, solar park and local load are built for reliability assessment. Then based on power system production cost simulation probability discretization and linearization power flow, a optimal power flow objected with minimum cost of conventional power generation is to be resolved. Thus a reliability assessment for distribution grid is implemented fast and accurately. The Loss Of Load Probability (LOLP) and Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) are selected as the reliability index, a simulation for IEEE RBTS BUS6 system in MATLAB indicates that the fast reliability assessing method calculates the reliability index much faster with the accuracy ensured when compared with Monte Carlo method.

  4. Generation reliability assessment in oligopoly power market using Monte Carlo simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haroonabadi, H.; Haghifam, M.R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper addressed issues regarding power generation reliability assessment (HLI) in deregulated power pool markets. Most HLI reliability evaluation methods are based on the loss of load (LOLE) approach which is among the most suitable indices to describe the level of generation reliability. LOLE refers to the time in which load is greater than the amount of available generation. While most reliability assessments deal only with power system constraints, this study considered HLI reliability assessment in an oligopoly power market using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It evaluated the sensitivity of the reliability index to different reserve margins and future margins. The reliability index was determined by intersecting the offer and demand curves of power plants and comparing them to other parameters. The paper described the fundamentals of an oligopoly power pool market and proposed an algorithm for HLI reliability assessment for such a market. The proposed method was assessed on the IEEE-Reliability Test System with satisfactory results. In all cases, generation reliability indices were evaluated with different reserve margins and various load levels. 19 refs., 7 figs., 1 appendix

  5. Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

  6. Extrapolation Method for System Reliability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Jianjun; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2012-01-01

    of integrals with scaled domains. The performance of this class of approximation depends on the approach applied for the scaling and the functional form utilized for the extrapolation. A scheme for this task is derived here taking basis in the theory of asymptotic solutions to multinormal probability integrals......The present paper presents a new scheme for probability integral solution for system reliability analysis, which takes basis in the approaches by Naess et al. (2009) and Bucher (2009). The idea is to evaluate the probability integral by extrapolation, based on a sequence of MC approximations...... that the proposed scheme is efficient and adds to generality for this class of approximations for probability integrals....

  7. Reliability of non-destructive testing methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broekhoven, M.J.G.

    1988-01-01

    This contribution regards the results of an evaluation of the reliability of radiography (X-rays and gamma-rays), manual-, and mechanized/automated ultrasonic examination by generally accepted codes/rules, with respect to detection, characterization and sizing/localization of defects. The evaluation is based on the results of examinations, by a number of teams, of 30 test plates, 30 and 50 mm thickness, containing V,U, X and K-shaped welds each containing several types of imperfections (211) in total) typical for steel arc fusion welding, such as porosity, inclusions, lack of fusion or penetration and cracks. Besides, some results are presented obtained from research on advanced UT-techniques, viz. the time-of-flight-diffraction and flaw-tip deflection technique. (author)

  8. Reliability of non-destructive testing methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broekhoven, M J.G. [Ministry of Social Affairs, (Netherlands)

    1988-12-31

    This contribution regards the results of an evaluation of the reliability of radiography (X-rays and gamma-rays), manual-, and mechanized/automated ultrasonic examination by generally accepted codes/rules, with respect to detection, characterization and sizing/localization of defects. The evaluation is based on the results of examinations, by a number of teams, of 30 test plates, 30 and 50 mm thickness, containing V,U, X and K-shaped welds each containing several types of imperfections (211) in total) typical for steel arc fusion welding, such as porosity, inclusions, lack of fusion or penetration and cracks. Besides, some results are presented obtained from research on advanced UT-techniques, viz. the time-of-flight-diffraction and flaw-tip deflection technique. (author). 4 refs.

  9. Reliability research to nuclear power plant operators based on several methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang Xiang; Li Fu; Zhao Bingquan

    2009-01-01

    The paper utilizes many kinds of international reliability research methods, and summarizes the review of reliability research of Chinese nuclear power plant operators in past over ten years based on the simulator platform of nuclear power plant. The paper shows the necessity and feasibility of the research to nuclear power plant operators from many angles including human cognition reliability, fuzzy mathematics model and psychological research model, etc. It will be good to the safe operation of nuclear power plant based on many kinds of research methods to the reliability research of nuclear power plant operators. (authors)

  10. A reliability evaluation method for NPP safety DCS application software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Yunjian; Zhang Lei; Liu Yuan

    2014-01-01

    In the field of nuclear power plant (NPP) digital i and c application, reliability evaluation for safety DCS application software is a key obstacle to be removed. In order to quantitatively evaluate reliability of NPP safety DCS application software, this paper propose a reliability evaluating method based on software development life cycle every stage's v and v defects density characteristics, by which the operating reliability level of the software can be predicted before its delivery, and helps to improve the reliability of NPP safety important software. (authors)

  11. Quality and Reliability of Large-Eddy Simulations II

    CERN Document Server

    Salvetti, Maria Vittoria; Meyers, Johan; Sagaut, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    The second Workshop on "Quality and Reliability of Large-Eddy Simulations", QLES2009, was held at the University of Pisa from September 9 to September 11, 2009. Its predecessor, QLES2007, was organized in 2007 in Leuven (Belgium). The focus of QLES2009 was on issues related to predicting, assessing and assuring the quality of LES. The main goal of QLES2009 was to enhance the knowledge on error sources and on their interaction in LES and to devise criteria for the prediction and optimization of simulation quality, by bringing together mathematicians, physicists and engineers and providing a platform specifically addressing these aspects for LES. Contributions were made by leading experts in the field. The present book contains the written contributions to QLES2009 and is divided into three parts, which reflect the main topics addressed at the workshop: (i) SGS modeling and discretization errors; (ii) Assessment and reduction of computational errors; (iii) Mathematical analysis and foundation for SGS modeling.

  12. Reliability of numerical wind tunnels for VAWT simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castelli, M. Raciti; Masi, M.; Battisti, L.; Benini, E.; Brighenti, A.; Dossena, V.; Persico, G.

    2016-01-01

    Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based on the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) equations have long been widely used to study vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs). Following a comprehensive experimental survey on the wakes downwind of a troposkien-shaped rotor, a campaign of bi-dimensional simulations is presented here, with the aim of assessing its reliability in reproducing the main features of the flow, also identifying areas needing additional research. Starting from both a well consolidated turbulence model (k-ω SST) and an unstructured grid typology, the main simulation settings are here manipulated in a convenient form to tackle rotating grids reproducing a VAWT operating in an open jet wind tunnel. The dependence of the numerical predictions from the selected grid spacing is investigated, thus establishing the less refined grid size that is still capable of capturing some relevant flow features such as integral quantities (rotor torque) and local ones (wake velocities). (paper)

  13. Reliability of numerical wind tunnels for VAWT simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raciti Castelli, M.; Masi, M.; Battisti, L.; Benini, E.; Brighenti, A.; Dossena, V.; Persico, G.

    2016-09-01

    Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based on the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) equations have long been widely used to study vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs). Following a comprehensive experimental survey on the wakes downwind of a troposkien-shaped rotor, a campaign of bi-dimensional simulations is presented here, with the aim of assessing its reliability in reproducing the main features of the flow, also identifying areas needing additional research. Starting from both a well consolidated turbulence model (k-ω SST) and an unstructured grid typology, the main simulation settings are here manipulated in a convenient form to tackle rotating grids reproducing a VAWT operating in an open jet wind tunnel. The dependence of the numerical predictions from the selected grid spacing is investigated, thus establishing the less refined grid size that is still capable of capturing some relevant flow features such as integral quantities (rotor torque) and local ones (wake velocities).

  14. Research on Control Method Based on Real-Time Operational Reliability Evaluation for Space Manipulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yifan Wang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A control method based on real-time operational reliability evaluation for space manipulator is presented for improving the success rate of a manipulator during the execution of a task. In this paper, a method for quantitative analysis of operational reliability is given when manipulator is executing a specified task; then a control model which could control the quantitative operational reliability is built. First, the control process is described by using a state space equation. Second, process parameters are estimated in real time using Bayesian method. Third, the expression of the system's real-time operational reliability is deduced based on the state space equation and process parameters which are estimated using Bayesian method. Finally, a control variable regulation strategy which considers the cost of control is given based on the Theory of Statistical Process Control. It is shown via simulations that this method effectively improves the operational reliability of space manipulator control system.

  15. Reliability analysis of numerical simulation in near field behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Akira; Yamamoto, Kiyohito; Chijimatsu, Masakazu; Fujita, Tomoo

    2008-01-01

    The uncertainties of the boundary conditions, the elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio on the mechanical behavior at near field of high level radioactive waste repository were examined. The method used to examine the error propagation was the first order second moment method. The reliability of the maximum principal stress, maximum shear stress at crown of the tunnel and the minimum principal stress at spring line was examined for one million years. For elastic model, the reliability of the maximum shear stress gradually decreased while that of the maximum principle stress increased. That of the minimum principal stress was relatively low for one million years. This tendency was similar to that from the damage model. (author)

  16. Mathematical Methods in Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life

    CERN Document Server

    Huber, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir

    2008-01-01

    Reliability and survival analysis are important applications of stochastic mathematics (probability, statistics and stochastic processes) that are usually covered separately in spite of the similarity of the involved mathematical theory. This title aims to redress this situation: it includes 21 chapters divided into four parts: Survival analysis, Reliability, Quality of life, and Related topics. Many of these chapters were presented at the European Seminar on Mathematical Methods for Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life in 2006.

  17. An accurate and efficient reliability-based design optimization using the second order reliability method and improved stability transformation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Zeng; Yang, Dixiong; Zhou, Huanlin; Yu, Bo

    2018-05-01

    The first order reliability method has been extensively adopted for reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), but it shows inaccuracy in calculating the failure probability with highly nonlinear performance functions. Thus, the second order reliability method is required to evaluate the reliability accurately. However, its application for RBDO is quite challenge owing to the expensive computational cost incurred by the repeated reliability evaluation and Hessian calculation of probabilistic constraints. In this article, a new improved stability transformation method is proposed to search the most probable point efficiently, and the Hessian matrix is calculated by the symmetric rank-one update. The computational capability of the proposed method is illustrated and compared to the existing RBDO approaches through three mathematical and two engineering examples. The comparison results indicate that the proposed method is very efficient and accurate, providing an alternative tool for RBDO of engineering structures.

  18. Reliable prediction of adsorption isotherms via genetic algorithm molecular simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LoftiKatooli, L; Shahsavand, A

    2017-01-01

    Conventional molecular simulation techniques such as grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) strictly rely on purely random search inside the simulation box for predicting the adsorption isotherms. This blind search is usually extremely time demanding for providing a faithful approximation of the real isotherm and in some cases may lead to non-optimal solutions. A novel approach is presented in this article which does not use any of the classical steps of the standard GCMC method, such as displacement, insertation, and removal. The new approach is based on the well-known genetic algorithm to find the optimal configuration for adsorption of any adsorbate on a structured adsorbent under prevailing pressure and temperature. The proposed approach considers the molecular simulation problem as a global optimization challenge. A detailed flow chart of our so-called genetic algorithm molecular simulation (GAMS) method is presented, which is entirely different from traditions molecular simulation approaches. Three real case studies (for adsorption of CO 2 and H 2 over various zeolites) are borrowed from literature to clearly illustrate the superior performances of the proposed method over the standard GCMC technique. For the present method, the average absolute values of percentage errors are around 11% (RHO-H 2 ), 5% (CHA-CO 2 ), and 16% (BEA-CO 2 ), while they were about 70%, 15%, and 40% for the standard GCMC technique, respectively.

  19. Advances in methods and applications of reliability and safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fieandt, J.; Hossi, H.; Laakso, K.; Lyytikaeinen, A.; Niemelae, I.; Pulkkinen, U.; Pulli, T.

    1986-01-01

    The know-how of the reliability and safety design and analysis techniques of Vtt has been established over several years in analyzing the reliability in the Finnish nuclear power plants Loviisa and Olkiluoto. This experience has been later on applied and developed to be used in the process industry, conventional power industry, automation and electronics. VTT develops and transfers methods and tools for reliability and safety analysis to the private and public sectors. The technology transfer takes place in joint development projects with potential users. Several computer-aided methods, such as RELVEC for reliability modelling and analysis, have been developed. The tool developed are today used by major Finnish companies in the fields of automation, nuclear power, shipbuilding and electronics. Development of computer-aided and other methods needed in analysis of operating experience, reliability or safety is further going on in a number of research and development projects

  20. Simulation techniques for determining reliability and availability of technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindauer, E.

    1975-01-01

    The system is described in the form of a fault tree with components representing part functions of the system and connections which reproduce the logical structure of the system. Both have the states intact or failed, they are defined here as in the programme FESIVAR of the IRS. For the simulation of components corresponding to the given probabilities, pseudo-random numbers are applied; these are numbers whose sequence is determined by the producing algorithm, but which for the given purpose sufficiently exhibit the behaviour of randomly successive numbers. This method of simulation is compared with deterministic methods. (HP/LH) [de

  1. Modeling and simulation for microelectronic packaging assembly manufacturing, reliability and testing

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Sheng

    2011-01-01

    Although there is increasing need for modeling and simulation in the IC package design phase, most assembly processes and various reliability tests are still based on the time consuming ""test and try out"" method to obtain the best solution. Modeling and simulation can easily ensure virtual Design of Experiments (DoE) to achieve the optimal solution. This has greatly reduced the cost and production time, especially for new product development. Using modeling and simulation will become increasingly necessary for future advances in 3D package development.  In this book, Liu and Liu allow people

  2. The psychophysiological assessment method for pilot's professional reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, L M; Yu, L S; Wang, K N; Jing, B S; Fang, C

    1997-05-01

    Previous research has shown that a pilot's professional reliability depends on two relative factors: the pilot's functional state and the demands of task workload. The Psychophysiological Reserve Capacity (PRC) is defined as a pilot's ability to accomplish additive tasks without reducing the performance of the primary task (flight task). We hypothesized that the PRC was a mirror of the pilot's functional state. The purpose of this study was to probe the psychophysiological method for evaluating a pilot's professional reliability on a simulator. The PRC Comprehensive Evaluating System (PRCCES) which was used in the experiment included four subsystems: a) quantitative evaluation system for pilot's performance on simulator; b) secondary task display and quantitative estimating system; c) multiphysiological data monitoring and statistical system; and d) comprehensive evaluation system for pilot PRC. Two studies were performed. In study one, 63 healthy and 13 hospitalized pilots participated. Each pilot performed a double 180 degrees circuit flight program with and without secondary task (three digit operation). The operator performance, score of secondary task and cost of physiological effort were measured and compared by PRCCES in the two conditions. Then, each pilot's flight skill in training was subjectively scored by instructor pilot ratings. In study two, 7 healthy pilots volunteered to take part in the experiment on the effects of sleep deprivation on pilot's PRC. Each participant had PRC tested pre- and post-8 h sleep deprivation. The results show that the PRC values of a healthy pilot was positively correlated with abilities of flexibility, operating and correcting deviation, attention distribution, and accuracy of instrument flight in the air (r = 0.27-0.40, p < 0.05), and negatively correlated with emotional anxiety in flight (r = -0.40, p < 0.05). The values of PRC in healthy pilots (0.61 +/- 0.17) were significantly higher than that of hospitalized pilots

  3. A hybrid algorithm for reliability analysis combining Kriging and subset simulation importance sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong, Cao; Sun, Zhili; Zhao, Qianli; Wang, Qibin; Wang, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    To solve the problem of large computation when failure probability with time-consuming numerical model is calculated, we propose an improved active learning reliability method called AK-SSIS based on AK-IS algorithm. First, an improved iterative stopping criterion in active learning is presented so that iterations decrease dramatically. Second, the proposed method introduces Subset simulation importance sampling (SSIS) into the active learning reliability calculation, and then a learning function suitable for SSIS is proposed. Finally, the efficiency of AK-SSIS is proved by two academic examples from the literature. The results show that AK-SSIS requires fewer calls to the performance function than AK-IS, and the failure probability obtained from AK-SSIS is very robust and accurate. Then this method is applied on a spur gear pair for tooth contact fatigue reliability analysis.

  4. A hybrid algorithm for reliability analysis combining Kriging and subset simulation importance sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tong, Cao; Sun, Zhili; Zhao, Qianli; Wang, Qibin [Northeastern University, Shenyang (China); Wang, Shuang [Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou (China)

    2015-08-15

    To solve the problem of large computation when failure probability with time-consuming numerical model is calculated, we propose an improved active learning reliability method called AK-SSIS based on AK-IS algorithm. First, an improved iterative stopping criterion in active learning is presented so that iterations decrease dramatically. Second, the proposed method introduces Subset simulation importance sampling (SSIS) into the active learning reliability calculation, and then a learning function suitable for SSIS is proposed. Finally, the efficiency of AK-SSIS is proved by two academic examples from the literature. The results show that AK-SSIS requires fewer calls to the performance function than AK-IS, and the failure probability obtained from AK-SSIS is very robust and accurate. Then this method is applied on a spur gear pair for tooth contact fatigue reliability analysis.

  5. On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

    2018-01-06

    This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks' statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies.

  6. On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

    2018-01-01

    This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks’ statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies. PMID:29316614

  7. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald Laurids Boring

    2010-11-01

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  8. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  9. Power distribution system reliability evaluation using dagger-sampling Monte Carlo simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Y.; Zhao, S.; Ma, Y. [North China Electric Power Univ., Hebei (China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2009-03-11

    A dagger-sampling Monte Carlo simulation method was used to evaluate power distribution system reliability. The dagger-sampling technique was used to record the failure of a component as an incident and to determine its occurrence probability by generating incident samples using random numbers. The dagger sampling technique was combined with the direct sequential Monte Carlo method to calculate average values of load point indices and system indices. Results of the 2 methods with simulation times of up to 100,000 years were then compared. The comparative evaluation showed that less computing time was required using the dagger-sampling technique due to its higher convergence speed. When simulation times were 1000 years, the dagger-sampling method required 0.05 seconds to accomplish an evaluation, while the direct method required 0.27 seconds. 12 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

  10. A method to assign failure rates for piping reliability assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gamble, R.M.; Tagart, S.W. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on a simplified method that has been developed to assign failure rates that can be used in reliability and risk studies of piping. The method can be applied on a line-by-line basis by identifying line and location specific attributes that can lead to piping unreliability from in-service degradation mechanisms and random events. A survey of service experience for nuclear piping reliability also was performed. The data from this survey provides a basis for identifying in-service failure attributes and assigning failure rates for risk and reliability studies

  11. Modifying nodal pricing method considering market participants optimality and reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Soofiabadi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a method for nodal pricing and market clearing mechanism considering reliability of the system. The effects of components reliability on electricity price, market participants’ profit and system social welfare is considered. This paper considers reliability both for evaluation of market participant’s optimality as well as for fair pricing and market clearing mechanism. To achieve fair pricing, nodal price has been obtained through a two stage optimization problem and to achieve fair market clearing mechanism, comprehensive criteria has been introduced for optimality evaluation of market participant. Social welfare of the system and system efficiency are increased under proposed modified nodal pricing method.

  12. A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ESTIMATION METHOD TO NUCLEAR SAFETY SOFTWARE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEE-YONG PARK

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A method for estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed in this paper. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM, where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Two types of modeling schemes based on a particular underlying method are proposed in order to more precisely estimate and predict the number of software defects based on very rare software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating software test cases as a covariate into the model. It was identified that these models are capable of reasonably estimating the remaining number of software defects which directly affects the reactor trip functions. The software reliability might be estimated from these modeling equations, and one approach of obtaining software reliability value is proposed in this paper.

  13. Evaluation of Information Requirements of Reliability Methods in Engineering Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marini, Vinicius Kaster; Restrepo-Giraldo, John Dairo; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2010-01-01

    This paper aims to characterize the information needed to perform methods for robustness and reliability, and verify their applicability to early design stages. Several methods were evaluated on their support to synthesis in engineering design. Of those methods, FMEA, FTA and HAZOP were selected...

  14. Simulated patient training: Using inter-rater reliability to evaluate simulated patient consistency in nursing education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLean, Sharon; Geddes, Fiona; Kelly, Michelle; Della, Phillip

    2018-03-01

    Simulated patients (SPs) are frequently used for training nursing students in communication skills. An acknowledged benefit of using SPs is the opportunity to provide a standardized approach by which participants can demonstrate and develop communication skills. However, relatively little evidence is available on how to best facilitate and evaluate the reliability and accuracy of SPs' performances. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of an evidenced based SP training framework to ensure standardization of SPs. The training framework was employed to improve inter-rater reliability of SPs. A quasi-experimental study was employed to assess SP post-training understanding of simulation scenario parameters using inter-rater reliability agreement indices. Two phases of data collection took place. Initially a trial phase including audio-visual (AV) recordings of two undergraduate nursing students completing a simulation scenario is rated by eight SPs using the Interpersonal Communication Assessments Scale (ICAS) and Quality of Discharge Teaching Scale (QDTS). In phase 2, eight SP raters and four nursing faculty raters independently evaluated students' (N=42) communication practices using the QDTS. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were >0.80 for both stages of the study in clinical communication skills. The results support the premise that if trained appropriately, SPs have a high degree of reliability and validity to both facilitate and evaluate student performance in nurse education. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

    OpenAIRE

    Hai An; Ling Zhou; Hui Sun

    2016-01-01

    Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new...

  16. ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, David J.; Viterna, Larry A.

    1991-01-01

    A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

  17. Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

    2013-01-01

    Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

  18. New methods in plasma simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    The development of implicit methods of particle-in-cell (PIC) computer simulation in recent years, and their merger with older hybrid methods have created a new arsenal of simulation techniques for the treatment of complex practical problems in plasma physics. The new implicit hybrid codes are aimed at transitional problems that lie somewhere between the long time scale, high density regime associated with MHD modeling, and the short time scale, low density regime appropriate to PIC particle-in-cell techniques. This transitional regime arises in ICF coronal plasmas, in pulsed power plasma switches, in Z-pinches, and in foil implosions. Here, we outline how such a merger of implicit and hybrid methods has been carried out, specifically in the ANTHEM computer code, and demonstrate the utility of implicit hybrid simulation in applications. 25 refs., 5 figs

  19. Usefulness of the Monte Carlo method in reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanore, J.M.; Kalli, H.

    1977-01-01

    Three examples of reliability Monte Carlo programs developed in the LEP (Laboratory for Radiation Shielding Studies in the Nuclear Research Center at Saclay) are presented. First, an uncertainty analysis is given for a simplified spray system; a Monte Carlo program PATREC-MC has been written to solve the problem with the system components given in the fault tree representation. The second program MONARC 2 has been written to solve the problem of complex systems reliability by the Monte Carlo simulation, here again the system (a residual heat removal system) is in the fault tree representation. Third, the Monte Carlo program MONARC was used instead of the Markov diagram to solve the simulation problem of an electric power supply including two nets and two stand-by diesels

  20. Level III Reliability methods feasible for complex structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waarts, P.H.; Boer, A. de

    2001-01-01

    The paper describes the comparison between three types of reliability methods: code type level I used by a designer, full level I and a level III method. Two cases that are typical for civil engineering practise, a cable-stayed subjected to traffic load and the installation of a soil retaining sheet

  1. Developing a reliable signal wire attachment method for rail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a better attachment method for rail signal wires to improve the reliability of signaling : systems. EWI conducted basic research into the failure mode of current attachment methods and developed and tested a ne...

  2. Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

    1993-10-01

    The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

  3. Reliability Estimation of the Pultrusion Process Using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baran, Ismet; Tutum, Cem Celal; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2013-01-01

    In the present study the reliability estimation of the pultrusion process of a flat plate is analyzed by using the first order reliability method (FORM). The implementation of the numerical process model is validated by comparing the deterministic temperature and cure degree profiles...... with corresponding analyses in the literature. The centerline degree of cure at the exit (CDOCE) being less than a critical value and the maximum composite temperature (Tmax) during the process being greater than a critical temperature are selected as the limit state functions (LSFs) for the FORM. The cumulative...

  4. Reliable low precision simulations in land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Andrew; Düben, Peter D.; MacLeod, David A.; Palmer, Tim N.

    2017-12-01

    Weather and climate models must continue to increase in both resolution and complexity in order that forecasts become more accurate and reliable. Moving to lower numerical precision may be an essential tool for coping with the demand for ever increasing model complexity in addition to increasing computing resources. However, there have been some concerns in the weather and climate modelling community over the suitability of lower precision for climate models, particularly for representing processes that change very slowly over long time-scales. These processes are difficult to represent using low precision due to time increments being systematically rounded to zero. Idealised simulations are used to demonstrate that a model of deep soil heat diffusion that fails when run in single precision can be modified to work correctly using low precision, by splitting up the model into a small higher precision part and a low precision part. This strategy retains the computational benefits of reduced precision whilst preserving accuracy. This same technique is also applied to a full complexity land surface model, resulting in rounding errors that are significantly smaller than initial condition and parameter uncertainties. Although lower precision will present some problems for the weather and climate modelling community, many of the problems can likely be overcome using a straightforward and physically motivated application of reduced precision.

  5. A Novel Reliability Enhanced Handoff Method in Future Wireless Heterogeneous Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang YuPeng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As the demand increases, future networks will follow the trends of network variety and service flexibility, which requires heterogeneous type of network deployment and reliable communication method. In practice, most communication failure happens due to the bad radio link quality, i.e., high-speed users suffers a lot on the problem of radio link failure, which causes the problem of communication interrupt and radio link recovery. To make the communication more reliable, especially for the high mobility users, we propose a novel communication handoff mechanism to reduce the occurrence of service interrupt. Based on computer simulation, we find that the reliability on the service is greatly improved.

  6. Reliably detectable flaw size for NDE methods that use calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshti, Ajay M.

    2017-04-01

    Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-1823 and associated mh18232 POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. In this paper, POD analysis is applied to an NDE method, such as eddy current testing, where calibration is used. NDE calibration standards have known size artificial flaws such as electro-discharge machined (EDM) notches and flat bottom hole (FBH) reflectors which are used to set instrument sensitivity for detection of real flaws. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. Therefore, it is important to correlate signal responses from real flaws with signal responses form artificial flaws used in calibration process to determine reliably detectable flaw size.

  7. HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS DENGAN PENDEKATAN COGNITIVE RELIABILITY AND ERROR ANALYSIS METHOD (CREAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahirah Alifia Maulida

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Kecelakaan kerja pada bidang grinding dan welding menempati urutan tertinggi selama lima tahun terakhir di PT. X. Kecelakaan ini disebabkan oleh human error. Human error terjadi karena pengaruh lingkungan kerja fisik dan non fisik.Penelitian kali menggunakan skenario untuk memprediksi serta mengurangi kemungkinan terjadinya error pada manusia dengan pendekatan CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. CREAM adalah salah satu metode human reliability analysis yang berfungsi untuk mendapatkan nilai Cognitive Failure Probability (CFP yang dapat dilakukan dengan dua cara yaitu basic method dan extended method. Pada basic method hanya akan didapatkan nilai failure probabailty secara umum, sedangkan untuk extended method akan didapatkan CFP untuk setiap task. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan faktor- faktor yang mempengaruhi timbulnya error pada pekerjaan grinding dan welding adalah kecukupan organisasi, kecukupan dari Man Machine Interface (MMI & dukungan operasional, ketersediaan prosedur/ perencanaan, serta kecukupan pelatihan dan pengalaman. Aspek kognitif pada pekerjaan grinding yang memiliki nilai error paling tinggi adalah planning dengan nilai CFP 0.3 dan pada pekerjaan welding yaitu aspek kognitif execution dengan nilai CFP 0.18. Sebagai upaya untuk mengurangi nilai error kognitif pada pekerjaan grinding dan welding rekomendasi yang diberikan adalah memberikan training secara rutin, work instrucstion yang lebih rinci dan memberikan sosialisasi alat. Kata kunci: CREAM (cognitive reliability and error analysis method, HRA (human reliability analysis, cognitive error Abstract The accidents in grinding and welding sectors were the highest cases over the last five years in PT. X and it caused by human error. Human error occurs due to the influence of working environment both physically and non-physically. This study will implement an approaching scenario called CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. CREAM is one of human

  8. Assessment of Advanced Life Support competence when combining different test methods--reliability and validity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ringsted, C; Lippert, F; Hesselfeldt, R

    2007-01-01

    Cardiac Arrest Simulation Test (CASTest) scenarios for the assessments according to guidelines 2005. AIMS: To analyse the reliability and validity of the individual sub-tests provided by ERC and to find a combination of MCQ and CASTest that provides a reliable and valid single effect measure of ALS...... that possessed high reliability, equality of test sets, and ability to discriminate between the two groups of supposedly different ALS competence. CONCLUSIONS: ERC sub-tests of ALS competence possess sufficient reliability and validity. A combined ALS score with equal weighting of one MCQ and one CASTest can...... competence. METHODS: Two groups of participants were included in this randomised, controlled experimental study: a group of newly graduated doctors, who had not taken the ALS course (N=17) and a group of students, who had passed the ALS course 9 months before the study (N=16). Reliability in terms of inter...

  9. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  10. An overview of reliability methods in mechanical and structural design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirsching, P. H.; Ortiz, K.; Lee, S. J.

    1987-01-01

    An evaluation is made of modern methods of fast probability integration and Monte Carlo treatment for the assessment of structural systems' and components' reliability. Fast probability integration methods are noted to be more efficient than Monte Carlo ones. This is judged to be an important consideration when several point probability estimates must be made in order to construct a distribution function. An example illustrating the relative efficiency of the various methods is included.

  11. Assessment of the reliability of ultrasonic inspection methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haines, N.F.; Langston, D.B.; Green, A.J.; Wilson, R.

    1982-01-01

    The reliability of NDT techniques has remained an open question for many years. A reliable technique may be defined as one that, when rigorously applied by a number of inspection teams, consistently finds then correctly sizes all defects of concern. In this paper we report an assessment of the reliability of defect detection by manual ultrasonic methods applied to the inspection of thick section pressure vessel weldments. Initially we consider the available data relating to the inherent physical capabilities of ultrasonic techniques to detect cracks in weldment and then, independently, we assess the likely variability in team to team performance when several teams are asked to follow the same specified test procedure. The two aspects of 'capability' and 'variability' are brought together to provide quantitative estimates of the overall reliability of ultrasonic inspection of thick section pressure vessel weldments based on currently existing data. The final section of the paper considers current research programmes on reliability and presents a view on how these will help to further improve NDT reliability. (author)

  12. Investigation of MLE in nonparametric estimation methods of reliability function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Won; Kim, Yoon Ik; Chung, Chang Hyun; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2001-01-01

    There have been lots of trials to estimate a reliability function. In the ESReDA 20 th seminar, a new method in nonparametric way was proposed. The major point of that paper is how to use censored data efficiently. Generally there are three kinds of approach to estimate a reliability function in nonparametric way, i.e., Reduced Sample Method, Actuarial Method and Product-Limit (PL) Method. The above three methods have some limits. So we suggest an advanced method that reflects censored information more efficiently. In many instances there will be a unique maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of an unknown parameter, and often it may be obtained by the process of differentiation. It is well known that the three methods generally used to estimate a reliability function in nonparametric way have maximum likelihood estimators that are uniquely exist. So, MLE of the new method is derived in this study. The procedure to calculate a MLE is similar just like that of PL-estimator. The difference of the two is that in the new method, the mass (or weight) of each has an influence of the others but the mass in PL-estimator not

  13. Reliability methods in nuclear power plant ageing management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of nuclear power plant ageing management is to maintain an adequate safety level throughout the lifetime of the plant. In ageing studies, the reliability of components, systems and structures is evaluated taking into account the possible time-dependent degradation. The phases of ageing analyses are generally the identification of critical components, identification and evaluation of ageing effects, and development of mitigation methods. This thesis focuses on the use of reliability methods and analyses of plant- specific operating experience in nuclear power plant ageing studies. The presented applications and method development have been related to nuclear power plants, but many of the approaches can also be applied outside the nuclear industry. The thesis consists of a summary and seven publications. The summary provides an overview of ageing management and discusses the role of reliability methods in ageing analyses. In the publications, practical applications and method development are described in more detail. The application areas at component and system level are motor-operated valves and protection automation systems, for which experience-based ageing analyses have been demonstrated. Furthermore, Bayesian ageing models for repairable components have been developed, and the management of ageing by improving maintenance practices is discussed. Recommendations for improvement of plant information management in order to facilitate ageing analyses are also given. The evaluation and mitigation of ageing effects on structural components is addressed by promoting the use of probabilistic modelling of crack growth, and developing models for evaluation of the reliability of inspection results. (orig.)

  14. Reliability methods in nuclear power plant ageing management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simola, K. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1999-07-01

    The aim of nuclear power plant ageing management is to maintain an adequate safety level throughout the lifetime of the plant. In ageing studies, the reliability of components, systems and structures is evaluated taking into account the possible time-dependent degradation. The phases of ageing analyses are generally the identification of critical components, identification and evaluation of ageing effects, and development of mitigation methods. This thesis focuses on the use of reliability methods and analyses of plant- specific operating experience in nuclear power plant ageing studies. The presented applications and method development have been related to nuclear power plants, but many of the approaches can also be applied outside the nuclear industry. The thesis consists of a summary and seven publications. The summary provides an overview of ageing management and discusses the role of reliability methods in ageing analyses. In the publications, practical applications and method development are described in more detail. The application areas at component and system level are motor-operated valves and protection automation systems, for which experience-based ageing analyses have been demonstrated. Furthermore, Bayesian ageing models for repairable components have been developed, and the management of ageing by improving maintenance practices is discussed. Recommendations for improvement of plant information management in order to facilitate ageing analyses are also given. The evaluation and mitigation of ageing effects on structural components is addressed by promoting the use of probabilistic modelling of crack growth, and developing models for evaluation of the reliability of inspection results. (orig.)

  15. Selected Methods For Increases Reliability The Of Electronic Systems Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paś Jacek

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the issues related to the different methods to increase the reliability of electronic security systems (ESS for example, a fire alarm system (SSP. Reliability of the SSP in the descriptive sense is a property preservation capacity to implement the preset function (e.g. protection: fire airport, the port, logistics base, etc., at a certain time and under certain conditions, e.g. Environmental, despite the possible non-compliance by a specific subset of elements this system. Analyzing the available literature on the ESS-SSP is not available studies on methods to increase the reliability (several works similar topics but moving with respect to the burglary and robbery (Intrusion. Based on the analysis of the set of all paths in the system suitability of the SSP for the scenario mentioned elements fire events (device critical because of security.

  16. A method of predicting the reliability of CDM coil insulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kytasty, A.; Ogle, C.; Arrendale, H.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a method of predicting the reliability of the Collider Dipole Magnet (CDM) coil insulation design. The method proposes a probabilistic treatment of electrical test data, stress analysis, material properties variability and loading uncertainties to give the reliability estimate. The approach taken to predict reliability of design related failure modes of the CDM is to form analytical models of the various possible failure modes and their related mechanisms or causes, and then statistically assess the contributions of the various contributing variables. The probability of the failure mode occurring is interpreted as the number of times one would expect certain extreme situations to combine and randomly occur. One of the more complex failure modes of the CDM will be used to illustrate this methodology

  17. A Simulation Model for Machine Efficiency Improvement Using Reliability Centered Maintenance: Case Study of Semiconductor Factory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srisawat Supsomboon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to increase the quality of product by focusing on the machine efficiency improvement. The principle of the reliability centered maintenance (RCM was applied to increase the machine reliability. The objective was to create preventive maintenance plan under reliability centered maintenance method and to reduce defects. The study target was set to reduce the Lead PPM for a test machine by simulating the proposed preventive maintenance plan. The simulation optimization approach based on evolutionary algorithms was employed for the preventive maintenance technique selection process to select the PM interval that gave the best total cost and Lead PPM values. The research methodology includes procedures such as following the priority of critical components in test machine, analyzing the damage and risk level by using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA, calculating the suitable replacement period through reliability estimation, and optimizing the preventive maintenance plan. From the result of the study it is shown that the Lead PPM of test machine can be reduced. The cost of preventive maintenance, cost of good product, and cost of lost product were decreased.

  18. MAPPS (Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation): a computer simulation model for human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.

    1985-01-01

    A computer model has been developed, sensitivity tested, and evaluated capable of generating reliable estimates of human performance measures in the nuclear power plant (NPP) maintenance context. The model, entitled MAPPS (Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation), is of the simulation type and is task-oriented. It addresses a number of person-machine, person-environment, and person-person variables and is capable of providing the user with a rich spectrum of important performance measures including mean time for successful task performance by a maintenance team and maintenance team probability of task success. These two measures are particularly important for input to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies which were the primary impetus for the development of MAPPS. The simulation nature of the model along with its generous input parameters and output variables allows its usefulness to extend beyond its input to PRA

  19. A reliable method for the stability analysis of structures ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The detection of structural configurations with singular tangent stiffness matrix is essential because they can be unstable. The secondary paths, especially in unstable buckling, can play the most important role in the loss of stability and collapse of the structure. A new method for reliable detection and accurate computation of ...

  20. Methods to compute reliabilities for genomic predictions of feed intake

    Science.gov (United States)

    For new traits without historical reference data, cross-validation is often the preferred method to validate reliability (REL). Time truncation is less useful because few animals gain substantial REL after the truncation point. Accurate cross-validation requires separating genomic gain from pedigree...

  1. Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

  2. Assessment of reliability of Greulich and Pyle (gp) method for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Greulich and Pyle standards are the most widely used age estimation standards all over the world. The applicability of the Greulich and Pyle standards to populations which differ from their reference population is often questioned. This study aimed to assess the reliability of Greulich and Pyle (GP) method for ...

  3. Statistical Bayesian method for reliability evaluation based on ADT data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dawei; Wang, Lizhi; Sun, Yusheng; Wang, Xiaohong

    2018-05-01

    Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is frequently conducted in the laboratory to predict the products’ reliability under normal operating conditions. Two kinds of methods, degradation path models and stochastic process models, are utilized to analyze degradation data and the latter one is the most popular method. However, some limitations like imprecise solution process and estimation result of degradation ratio still exist, which may affect the accuracy of the acceleration model and the extrapolation value. Moreover, the conducted solution of this problem, Bayesian method, lose key information when unifying the degradation data. In this paper, a new data processing and parameter inference method based on Bayesian method is proposed to handle degradation data and solve the problems above. First, Wiener process and acceleration model is chosen; Second, the initial values of degradation model and parameters of prior and posterior distribution under each level is calculated with updating and iteration of estimation values; Third, the lifetime and reliability values are estimated on the basis of the estimation parameters; Finally, a case study is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the proposed method is quite effective and accuracy in estimating the lifetime and reliability of a product.

  4. On the way to reliable aeroelastic load simulation on VAWT's

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben J.; Aagaard Madsen, Helge

    2013-01-01

    In this paper a method for an implementation of a 2D actuator cylinder flow model of an Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT) is presented. The model is implemented in a full aeroelastic code including consideration of structural dynamics, dynamic inflow, tower shadow and dynamic stall, which is needed...... for a full load analysis relating to eg. certification of a VAWT turbine. Further on, principal load cases according to the IEC61400-1 are simulated for a fictitious 5MW VAWT turbine in it’s simplest 2 bladed Darrieus configuration. The IEC61400-1 load cases, originally developed for Horizontal Axis Wind...... Turbines (HAWT’s), are discussed regarding the application to VAWT’s. Further on a small section regarding aerodynamic flow in curved motion is included....

  5. The cognitive environment simulation as a tool for modeling human performance and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, D.D.; Pople, H. Jr.; Roth, E.M.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research program to develop improved methods to model the cognitive behavior of nuclear power plant (NPP) personnel. Under this program, a tool for simulating how people form intentions to act in NPP emergency situations was developed using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. This tool is called Cognitive Environment Simulation (CES). The Cognitive Reliability Assessment Technique (or CREATE) was also developed to specify how CBS can be used to enhance the measurement of the human contribution to risk in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies. The next step in the research program was to evaluate the modeling tool and the method for using the tool for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in PRAs. Three evaluation activities were conducted. First, a panel of highly distinguished experts in cognitive modeling, AI, PRA and HRA provided a technical review of the simulation development work. Second, based on panel recommendations, CES was exercised on a family of steam generator tube rupture incidents where empirical data on operator performance already existed. Third, a workshop with HRA practitioners was held to analyze a worked example of the CREATE method to evaluate the role of CES/CREATE in HRA. The results of all three evaluations indicate that CES/CREATE represents a promising approach to modeling operator intention formation during emergency operations

  6. Design Optimization Method for Composite Components Based on Moment Reliability-Sensitivity Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhigang; Wang, Changxi; Niu, Xuming; Song, Yingdong

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, a Reliability-Sensitivity Based Design Optimization (RSBDO) methodology for the design of the ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) components has been proposed. A practical and efficient method for reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis of complex components with arbitrary distribution parameters are investigated by using the perturbation method, the respond surface method, the Edgeworth series and the sensitivity analysis approach. The RSBDO methodology is then established by incorporating sensitivity calculation model into RBDO methodology. Finally, the proposed RSBDO methodology is applied to the design of the CMCs components. By comparing with Monte Carlo simulation, the numerical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology provides an accurate, convergent and computationally efficient method for reliability-analysis based finite element modeling engineering practice.

  7. Reliability analysis of HVDC grid combined with power flow simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yongtao; Langeland, Tore; Solvik, Johan [DNV AS, Hoevik (Norway); Stewart, Emma [DNV KEMA, Camino Ramon, CA (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Based on a DC grid power flow solver and the proposed GEIR, we carried out reliability analysis for a HVDC grid test system proposed by CIGRE working group B4-58, where the failure statistics are collected from literature survey. The proposed methodology is used to evaluate the impact of converter configuration on the overall reliability performance of the HVDC grid, where the symmetrical monopole configuration is compared with the bipole with metallic return wire configuration. The results quantify the improvement on reliability by using the later alternative. (orig.)

  8. Survey of methods used to asses human reliability in the human factors reliability benchmark exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poucet, A.

    1988-01-01

    The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has organised a Human Factors Reliability Benchmark Exercise (HF-RBE) with the aim to assess the state-of-the-art in human reliability modelling and assessment. Fifteen teams from eleven countries, representing industry, utilities, licensing organisations and research institutes, participate in the HF-RBE, which is organised around two study cases: (1) analysis of routine functional test and maintenance procedures, with the aim to assess the probability of test-induced failures, the probability of failures to remain unrevealed, and the potential to initiate transients because of errors performed in the test; and (2) analysis of human actions during an operational transient, with the aim to assess the probability that the operators will correctly diagnose the malfunctions and take proper corrective action. The paper briefly reports how the HF-RBE was structured and gives an overview of the methods that have been used for predicting human reliability in both study cases. The experience in applying these methods is discussed and the results obtained are compared. (author)

  9. Reliability and discriminatory power of methods for dental plaque quantification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Prócida Raggio

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: This in situ study evaluated the discriminatory power and reliability of methods of dental plaque quantification and the relationship between visual indices (VI and fluorescence camera (FC to detect plaque. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Six volunteers used palatal appliances with six bovine enamel blocks presenting different stages of plaque accumulation. The presence of plaque with and without disclosing was assessed using VI. Images were obtained with FC and digital camera in both conditions. The area covered by plaque was assessed. Examinations were done by two independent examiners. Data were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kappa tests to compare different conditions of samples and to assess the inter-examiner reproducibility. RESULTS: Some methods presented adequate reproducibility. The Turesky index and the assessment of area covered by disclosed plaque in the FC images presented the highest discriminatory powers. CONCLUSION: The Turesky index and images with FC with disclosing present good reliability and discriminatory power in quantifying dental plaque.

  10. Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Ronald; Thöns, Sebastian; Straub, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through B...... is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses. The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue....

  11. Reliability-based design optimization via high order response surface method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Hong Shuang

    2013-01-01

    To reduce the computational effort of reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), the response surface method (RSM) has been widely used to evaluate reliability constraints. We propose an efficient methodology for solving RBDO problems based on an improved high order response surface method (HORSM) that takes advantage of an efficient sampling method, Hermite polynomials and uncertainty contribution concept to construct a high order response surface function with cross terms for reliability analysis. The sampling method generates supporting points from Gauss-Hermite quadrature points, which can be used to approximate response surface function without cross terms, to identify the highest order of each random variable and to determine the significant variables connected with point estimate method. The cross terms between two significant random variables are added to the response surface function to improve the approximation accuracy. Integrating the nested strategy, the improved HORSM is explored in solving RBDO problems. Additionally, a sampling based reliability sensitivity analysis method is employed to reduce the computational effort further when design variables are distributional parameters of input random variables. The proposed methodology is applied on two test problems to validate its accuracy and efficiency. The proposed methodology is more efficient than first order reliability method based RBDO and Monte Carlo simulation based RBDO, and enables the use of RBDO as a practical design tool.

  12. A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doguc, Ozge; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

    2009-01-01

    This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples

  13. A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doguc, Ozge [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: jmarquez@stevens.edu

    2009-02-15

    This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples.

  14. Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chou, Jui-Sheng; Le, Thanh-Son

    2011-01-01

    Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: →A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. → Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. → A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. → The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

  15. Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chou, Jui-Sheng, E-mail: jschou@mail.ntust.edu.tw [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Le, Thanh-Son [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)

    2011-10-15

    Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: > A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. > Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. > A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. > The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

  16. An exact method for solving logical loops in reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuoka, Takeshi

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an exact method for solving logical loops in reliability analysis. The systems that include logical loops are usually described by simultaneous Boolean equations. First, present a basic rule of solving simultaneous Boolean equations. Next, show the analysis procedures for three-component system with external supports. Third, more detailed discussions are given for the establishment of logical loop relation. Finally, take up two typical structures which include more than one logical loop. Their analysis results and corresponding GO-FLOW charts are given. The proposed analytical method is applicable to loop structures that can be described by simultaneous Boolean equations, and it is very useful in evaluating the reliability of complex engineering systems.

  17. Using the graphs models for evaluating in-core monitoring systems reliability by the method of imiting simulaton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golovanov, M.N.; Zyuzin, N.N.; Levin, G.L.; Chesnokov, A.N.

    1987-01-01

    An approach for estimation of reliability factors of complex reserved systems at early stages of development using the method of imitating simulation is considered. Different types of models, their merits and lacks are given. Features of in-core monitoring systems and advosability of graph model and graph theory element application for estimating reliability of such systems are shown. The results of investigation of the reliability factors of the reactor monitoring, control and core local protection subsystem are shown

  18. Validity evidence and reliability of a simulated patient feedback instrument.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schlegel, C.; Woermann, U.; Rethans, J.J.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the training of healthcare professionals, one of the advantages of communication training with simulated patients (SPs) is the SP's ability to provide direct feedback to students after a simulated clinical encounter. The quality of SP feedback must be monitored, especially because it

  19. Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanjilal, Oindrila; Manohar, C. S.

    2017-07-01

    The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations.

  20. A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

    Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

  1. COMPOSITE METHOD OF RELIABILITY RESEARCH FOR HIERARCHICAL MULTILAYER ROUTING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Tregubov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the idea of a research method for hierarchical multilayer routing systems. The method represents a composition of methods of graph theories, reliability, probabilities, etc. These methods are applied to the solution of different private analysis and optimization tasks and are systemically connected and coordinated with each other through uniform set-theoretic representation of the object of research. The hierarchical multilayer routing systems are considered as infrastructure facilities (gas and oil pipelines, automobile and railway networks, systems of power supply and communication with distribution of material resources, energy or information with the use of hierarchically nested functions of routing. For descriptive reasons theoretical constructions are considered on the example of task solution of probability determination for up state of specific infocommunication system. The author showed the possibility of constructive combination of graph representation of structure of the object of research and a logic probable analysis method of its reliability indices through uniform set-theoretic representation of its elements and processes proceeding in them.

  2. Quality and Reliability of Large-Eddy Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Meyers, Johan; Sagaut, Pierre

    2008-01-01

    Computational resources have developed to the level that, for the first time, it is becoming possible to apply large-eddy simulation (LES) to turbulent flow problems of realistic complexity. Many examples can be found in technology and in a variety of natural flows. This puts issues related to assessing, assuring, and predicting the quality of LES into the spotlight. Several LES studies have been published in the past, demonstrating a high level of accuracy with which turbulent flow predictions can be attained, without having to resort to the excessive requirements on computational resources imposed by direct numerical simulations. However, the setup and use of turbulent flow simulations requires a profound knowledge of fluid mechanics, numerical techniques, and the application under consideration. The susceptibility of large-eddy simulations to errors in modelling, in numerics, and in the treatment of boundary conditions, can be quite large due to nonlinear accumulation of different contributions over time, ...

  3. Simulator experiments on operator reliability and training effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, A. Spurgin, A.J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses some aspects of the Operator Reliability Experiments project sponsored by Electric Power Research Institute. The paper deals with modifications to the HCR correlation which have resulted from the study of operators in responding to nuclear accident scenarios using emergency procedures. The interpretation of time response data and how insights in crew performance can lead to improvements in not only crew performance but also in training effectiveness are discussed

  4. Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

    2003-01-01

    A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been

  5. Monte Carlo simulation based reliability evaluation in a multi-bilateral contracts market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, L.; Viswanath, P.A.; Wang, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique to evaluate customer load point reliability in multi-bilateral contracts market. The effects of bilateral transactions, reserve agreements, and the priority commitments of generating companies on customer load point reliability have been investigated. A generating company with bilateral contracts is modelled as an equivalent time varying multi-state generation (ETMG). A procedure to determine load point reliability based on ETMG has been developed. The developed procedure is applied to a reliability test system to illustrate the technique. Representing each bilateral contract by an ETMG provides flexibility in determining the reliability at various customer load points. (authors)

  6. Applicability of simplified human reliability analysis methods for severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, R.; St Germain, S. [Idaho National Lab., Idaho Falls, Idaho (United States); Banaseanu, G.; Chatri, H.; Akl, Y. [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-03-15

    Most contemporary human reliability analysis (HRA) methods were created to analyse design-basis accidents at nuclear power plants. As part of a comprehensive expansion of risk assessments at many plants internationally, HRAs will begin considering severe accident scenarios. Severe accidents, while extremely rare, constitute high consequence events that significantly challenge successful operations and recovery. Challenges during severe accidents include degraded and hazardous operating conditions at the plant, the shift in control from the main control room to the technical support center, the unavailability of plant instrumentation, and the need to use different types of operating procedures. Such shifts in operations may also test key assumptions in existing HRA methods. This paper discusses key differences between design basis and severe accidents, reviews efforts to date to create customized HRA methods suitable for severe accidents, and recommends practices for adapting existing HRA methods that are already being used for HRAs at the plants. (author)

  7. A simple reliability block diagram method for safety integrity verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Haitao; Yang Xianhui

    2007-01-01

    IEC 61508 requires safety integrity verification for safety related systems to be a necessary procedure in safety life cycle. PFD avg must be calculated to verify the safety integrity level (SIL). Since IEC 61508-6 does not give detailed explanations of the definitions and PFD avg calculations for its examples, it is difficult for common reliability or safety engineers to understand when they use the standard as guidance in practice. A method using reliability block diagram is investigated in this study in order to provide a clear and feasible way of PFD avg calculation and help those who take IEC 61508-6 as their guidance. The method finds mean down times (MDTs) of both channel and voted group first and then PFD avg . The calculated results of various voted groups are compared with those in IEC61508 part 6 and Ref. [Zhang T, Long W, Sato Y. Availability of systems with self-diagnostic components-applying Markov model to IEC 61508-6. Reliab Eng System Saf 2003;80(2):133-41]. An interesting outcome can be realized from the comparison. Furthermore, although differences in MDT of voted groups exist between IEC 61508-6 and this paper, PFD avg of voted groups are comparatively close. With detailed description, the method of RBD presented can be applied to the quantitative SIL verification, showing a similarity of the method in IEC 61508-6

  8. Reliability of stellar inclination estimated from asteroseismology: analytical criteria, mock simulations and Kepler data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiaka, Shoya; Benomar, Othman; Suto, Yasushi

    2018-05-01

    Advances in asteroseismology of solar-like stars, now provide a unique method to estimate the stellar inclination i⋆. This enables to evaluate the spin-orbit angle of transiting planetary systems, in a complementary fashion to the Rossiter-McLaughlineffect, a well-established method to estimate the projected spin-orbit angle λ. Although the asteroseismic method has been broadly applied to the Kepler data, its reliability has yet to be assessed intensively. In this work, we evaluate the accuracy of i⋆ from asteroseismology of solar-like stars using 3000 simulated power spectra. We find that the low signal-to-noise ratio of the power spectra induces a systematic under-estimate (over-estimate) bias for stars with high (low) inclinations. We derive analytical criteria for the reliable asteroseismic estimate, which indicates that reliable measurements are possible in the range of 20° ≲ i⋆ ≲ 80° only for stars with high signal-to-noise ratio. We also analyse and measure the stellar inclination of 94 Kepler main-sequence solar-like stars, among which 33 are planetary hosts. According to our reliability criteria, a third of them (9 with planets, 22 without) have accurate stellar inclination. Comparison of our asteroseismic estimate of vsin i⋆ against spectroscopic measurements indicates that the latter suffers from a large uncertainty possibly due to the modeling of macro-turbulence, especially for stars with projected rotation speed vsin i⋆ ≲ 5km/s. This reinforces earlier claims, and the stellar inclination estimated from the combination of measurements from spectroscopy and photometric variation for slowly rotating stars needs to be interpreted with caution.

  9. Obtaining reliable Likelihood Ratio tests from simulated likelihood functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Laura Mørch

    It is standard practice by researchers and the default option in many statistical programs to base test statistics for mixed models on simulations using asymmetric draws (e.g. Halton draws). This paper shows that when the estimated likelihood functions depend on standard deviations of mixed param...

  10. Powering stochastic reliability models by discrete event simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Wang, Xiaoyun

    2012-01-01

    it difficult to find a solution to the problem. The power of modern computers and recent developments in discrete-event simulation (DES) software enable to diminish some of the drawbacks of stochastic models. In this paper we describe the insights we have gained based on using both Markov and DES models...

  11. Approaching a reliable process simulation for the virtual product development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kose, K.; Rietman, Bert; Tikhomirov, D.; Bessert, N.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper an outline for a strategy to include manufacturing effects in subsequent simulations for the virtual product development from an industrial point of view is given. Especially the conditions for a successful mapping of geometry and results between different applications are discussed.

  12. Science-Based Simulation Model of Human Performance for Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Dana L.; Boring, Ronald L.; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

    2011-01-01

    Human reliability analysis (HRA), a component of an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), is the means by which the human contribution to risk is assessed, both qualitatively and quantitatively. However, among the literally dozens of HRA methods that have been developed, most cannot fully model and quantify the types of errors that occurred at Three Mile Island. Furthermore, all of the methods lack a solid empirical basis, relying heavily on expert judgment or empirical results derived in non-reactor domains. Finally, all of the methods are essentially static, and are thus unable to capture the dynamics of an accident in progress. The objective of this work is to begin exploring a dynamic simulation approach to HRA, one whose models have a basis in psychological theories of human performance, and whose quantitative estimates have an empirical basis. This paper highlights a plan to formalize collaboration among the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the University of Maryland, and The Ohio State University (OSU) to continue development of a simulation model initially formulated at the University of Maryland. Initial work will focus on enhancing the underlying human performance models with the most recent psychological research, and on planning follow-on studies to establish an empirical basis for the model, based on simulator experiments to be carried out at the INL and at the OSU.

  13. Development of a BN framework for human reliability analysis through virtual simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, Vipul; Santhosh, T.V.; Vinod, Gopika; Antony, P.D.

    2017-01-01

    Humans are an integral part of complex systems such as nuclear power plants and have to play a significant role in ensuring the safety and reliability of these systems. Failure to perform the intended task within the stipulated time by the operator can challenge the safety of the system. Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a widely practiced methodology to estimate the contribution of operator error towards the overall risk to the facility. HRA methods quantify this contribution in terms of human error probability (HEP) accounting for various psychological and physiological factors that influence the performance of the operator. These factors are referred to as human factors (HF), which enhance or degrade the human performance. The paper discusses the use of virtual simulation as a tool to generate the HF data from the virtual model of an in-house experimental facility. This paper also demonstrates the use of multi-attribute utility theory to determine a suitable HRA method amongst several HRA methods to quantify the HEP based on the desired set of HRA attributes. As classical HRA methods, generally, do not address the interactions among the HFs, the Bayesian network technique has been employed in this study to account for HF interactions. (author)

  14. Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Using Stochastic Response Surface Method with Sparse Grid Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinghai Zhao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical framework is developed which integrates the reliability concept into topology optimization to solve reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO problems under uncertainty. Two typical methodologies have been presented and implemented, including the performance measure approach (PMA and the sequential optimization and reliability assessment (SORA. To enhance the computational efficiency of reliability analysis, stochastic response surface method (SRSM is applied to approximate the true limit state function with respect to the normalized random variables, combined with the reasonable design of experiments generated by sparse grid design, which was proven to be an effective and special discretization technique. The uncertainties such as material property and external loads are considered on three numerical examples: a cantilever beam, a loaded knee structure, and a heat conduction problem. Monte-Carlo simulations are also performed to verify the accuracy of the failure probabilities computed by the proposed approach. Based on the results, it is demonstrated that application of SRSM with SGD can produce an efficient reliability analysis in RBTO which enables a more reliable design than that obtained by DTO. It is also found that, under identical accuracy, SORA is superior to PMA in view of computational efficiency.

  15. Planning Irreversible Electroporation in the Porcine Kidney: Are Numerical Simulations Reliable for Predicting Empiric Ablation Outcomes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wimmer, Thomas; Srimathveeravalli, Govindarajan; Gutta, Narendra; Ezell, Paula C.; Monette, Sebastien; Maybody, Majid; Erinjery, Joseph P.; Durack, Jeremy C.; Coleman, Jonathan A.; Solomon, Stephen B.

    2015-01-01

    PurposeNumerical simulations are used for treatment planning in clinical applications of irreversible electroporation (IRE) to determine ablation size and shape. To assess the reliability of simulations for treatment planning, we compared simulation results with empiric outcomes of renal IRE using computed tomography (CT) and histology in an animal model.MethodsThe ablation size and shape for six different IRE parameter sets (70–90 pulses, 2,000–2,700 V, 70–100 µs) for monopolar and bipolar electrodes was simulated using a numerical model. Employing these treatment parameters, 35 CT-guided IRE ablations were created in both kidneys of six pigs and followed up with CT immediately and after 24 h. Histopathology was analyzed from postablation day 1.ResultsAblation zones on CT measured 81 ± 18 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.05) and 115 ± 18 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.09) of the simulated size for monopolar electrodes, and 190 ± 33 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.001) and 234 ± 12 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.0001) for bipolar electrodes. Histopathology indicated smaller ablation zones than simulated (71 ± 41 %, p ≤ 0.047) and measured on CT (47 ± 16 %, p ≤ 0.005) with complete ablation of kidney parenchyma within the central zone and incomplete ablation in the periphery.ConclusionBoth numerical simulations for planning renal IRE and CT measurements may overestimate the size of ablation compared to histology, and ablation effects may be incomplete in the periphery

  16. Improvement of human reliability analysis method for PRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanji, Junichi; Fujimoto, Haruo

    2013-09-01

    It is required to refine human reliability analysis (HRA) method by, for example, incorporating consideration for the cognitive process of operator into the evaluation of diagnosis errors and decision-making errors, as a part of the development and improvement of methods used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). JNES has been developed a HRA method based on ATHENA which is suitable to handle the structured relationship among diagnosis errors, decision-making errors and operator cognition process. This report summarizes outcomes obtained from the improvement of HRA method, in which enhancement to evaluate how the plant degraded condition affects operator cognitive process and to evaluate human error probabilities (HEPs) which correspond to the contents of operator tasks is made. In addition, this report describes the results of case studies on the representative accident sequences to investigate the applicability of HRA method developed. HEPs of the same accident sequences are also estimated using THERP method, which is most popularly used HRA method, and comparisons of the results obtained using these two methods are made to depict the differences of these methods and issues to be solved. Important conclusions obtained are as follows: (1) Improvement of HRA method using operator cognitive action model. Clarification of factors to be considered in the evaluation of human errors, incorporation of degraded plant safety condition into HRA and investigation of HEPs which are affected by the contents of operator tasks were made to improve the HRA method which can integrate operator cognitive action model into ATHENA method. In addition, the detail of procedures of the improved method was delineated in the form of flowchart. (2) Case studies and comparison with the results evaluated by THERP method. Four operator actions modeled in the PRAs of representative BWR5 and 4-loop PWR plants were selected and evaluated as case studies. These cases were also evaluated using

  17. Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai An

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new hybrid reliability index definition is presented based on the random–fuzzy–interval model. Furthermore, the calculation flowchart of the hybrid reliability index is presented and it is solved using the modified limit-step length iterative algorithm, which ensures convergence. And the validity of convergent algorithm for the hybrid reliability model is verified through the calculation examples in literature. In the end, a numerical example is demonstrated to show that the hybrid reliability index is applicable for the wear reliability assessment of mechanisms, where truncated random variables, fuzzy random variables, and interval variables coexist. The demonstration also shows the good convergence of the iterative algorithm proposed in this article.

  18. A Structural Reliability Business Process Modelling with System Dynamics Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Lam, C. Y.; Chan, S. L.; Ip, W. H.

    2010-01-01

    Business activity flow analysis enables organizations to manage structured business processes, and can thus help them to improve performance. The six types of business activities identified here (i.e., SOA, SEA, MEA, SPA, MSA and FIA) are correlated and interact with one another, and the decisions from any business activity form feedback loops with previous and succeeding activities, thus allowing the business process to be modelled and simulated. For instance, for any company that is eager t...

  19. Current Human Reliability Analysis Methods Applied to Computerized Procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    Computerized procedures (CPs) are an emerging technology within nuclear power plant control rooms. While CPs have been implemented internationally in advanced control rooms, to date no US nuclear power plant has implemented CPs in its main control room (Fink et al., 2009). Yet, CPs are a reality of new plant builds and are an area of considerable interest to existing plants, which see advantages in terms of enhanced ease of use and easier records management by omitting the need for updating hardcopy procedures. The overall intent of this paper is to provide a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures. It is beyond the scope of this document to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper serves as a review of current HRA as it may be used for the analysis and review of computerized procedures.

  20. Coupling finite elements and reliability methods - application to safety evaluation of pressurized water reactor vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitner, P.; Venturini, V.

    1995-02-01

    When reliability studies are extended form deterministic calculations in mechanics, it is necessary to take into account input parameters variabilities which are linked to the different sources of uncertainty. Integrals must then be calculated to evaluate the failure risk. This can be performed either by simulation methods, or by approximations ones (FORM/SORM). Model in mechanics often require to perform calculation codes. These ones must then be coupled with the reliability calculations. Theses codes can involve large calculation times when they are invoked numerous times during simulations sequences or in complex iterative procedures. Response surface method gives an approximation of the real response from a reduced number of points for which the finite element code is run. Thus, when it is combined with FORM/SORM methods, a coupling can be carried out which gives results in a reasonable calculation time. An application of response surface method to mechanics reliability coupling for a mechanical model which calls for a finite element code is presented. It corresponds to a probabilistic fracture mechanics study of a pressurized water reactor vessel. (authors). 5 refs., 3 figs

  1. Contribution to improving reliability assessments of mechanical structural components requiring a high degree of safety using weighted Monte Carlo simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kutter, R

    1981-12-04

    Physical theories to inquire lifetime and reliability of mechanical structures or components under multiscale random stress do not exist. Today those dates were examinated e.g. in development of aircrafts and motorcars by fatigue-testing of original components and sections during long terms. Knowing the distributions of stress and material-parameters the same testing is to be realized simulationary on highspeed computers. This study gives methods to reduce the necessary computation time to attending ones even to proof reliability up to R=1-10/sup -9/. These methods were of Monte-Carlo-Simulation with weighted parameters and respect to life-history.

  2. A rapid reliability estimation method for directed acyclic lifeline networks with statistically dependent components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Won-Hee; Kliese, Alyce

    2014-01-01

    Lifeline networks, such as transportation, water supply, sewers, telecommunications, and electrical and gas networks, are essential elements for the economic and societal functions of urban areas, but their components are highly susceptible to natural or man-made hazards. In this context, it is essential to provide effective pre-disaster hazard mitigation strategies and prompt post-disaster risk management efforts based on rapid system reliability assessment. This paper proposes a rapid reliability estimation method for node-pair connectivity analysis of lifeline networks especially when the network components are statistically correlated. Recursive procedures are proposed to compound all network nodes until they become a single super node representing the connectivity between the origin and destination nodes. The proposed method is applied to numerical network examples and benchmark interconnected power and water networks in Memphis, Shelby County. The connectivity analysis results show the proposed method's reasonable accuracy and remarkable efficiency as compared to the Monte Carlo simulations

  3. AK-SYS: An adaptation of the AK-MCS method for system reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauriat, W.; Gayton, N.

    2014-01-01

    A lot of research work has been proposed over the last two decades to evaluate the probability of failure of a structure involving a very time-consuming mechanical model. Surrogate model approaches based on Kriging, such as the Efficient Global Reliability Analysis (EGRA) or the Active learning and Kriging-based Monte-Carlo Simulation (AK-MCS) methods, are very efficient and each has advantages of its own. EGRA is well suited to evaluating small probabilities, as the surrogate can be used to classify any population. AK-MCS is built in relation to a given population and requires no optimization program for the active learning procedure to be performed. It is therefore easier to implement and more likely to spend computational effort on areas with a significant probability content. When assessing system reliability, analytical approaches and first-order approximation are widely used in the literature. However, in the present paper we rather focus on sampling techniques and, considering the recent adaptation of the EGRA method for systems, a strategy is presented to adapt the AK-MCS method for system reliability. The AK-SYS method, “Active learning and Kriging-based SYStem reliability method”, is presented. Its high efficiency and accuracy are illustrated via various examples

  4. Estimation of reliability on digital plant protection system in nuclear power plants using fault simulation with self-checking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jun Seok; Kim, Suk Joon; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    Safety-critical digital systems in nuclear power plants require high design reliability. Reliable software design and accurate prediction methods for the system reliability are important problems. In the reliability analysis, the error detection coverage of the system is one of the crucial factors, however, it is difficult to evaluate the error detection coverage of digital instrumentation and control system in nuclear power plants due to complexity of the system. To evaluate the error detection coverage for high efficiency and low cost, the simulation based fault injections with self checking are needed for digital instrumentation and control system in nuclear power plants. The target system is local coincidence logic in digital plant protection system and a simplified software modeling for this target system is used in this work. C++ based hardware description of micro computer simulator system is used to evaluate the error detection coverage of the system. From the simulation result, it is possible to estimate the error detection coverage of digital plant protection system in nuclear power plants using simulation based fault injection method with self checking. (author)

  5. Collection of methods for reliability and safety engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Wilson, J.R.; Burdick, G.R.; Zipperer, J.C.

    1976-04-01

    The document presented contains five reports each describing a method of reliability and safety engineering. Report I provides a conceptual framework for the study of component malfunctions during system evaluations. Report II provides methods for locating groups of critical component failures such that all the component failures in a given group can be caused to occur by the occurrence of a single separate event. These groups of component failures are called common cause candidates. Report III provides a method for acquiring and storing system-independent component failure logic information. The information stored is influenced by the concepts presented in Report I and also includes information useful in locating common cause candidates. Report IV puts forth methods for analyzing situations that involve systems which change character in a predetermined time sequence. These phased missions techniques are applicable to the hypothetical ''accident chains'' frequently analyzed for nuclear power plants. Report V presents a unified approach to cause-consequence analysis, a method of analysis useful during risk assessments. This approach, as developed by the Danish Atomic Energy Commission, is modified to reflect the format and symbology conventionally used for other types of analysis of nuclear reactor systems

  6. A Reliability-Oriented Design Method for Power Electronic Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Zhou, Dao; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is a crucial performance indicator of power electronic systems in terms of availability, mission accomplishment and life cycle cost. A paradigm shift in the research on reliability of power electronics is going on from simple handbook based calculations (e.g. models in MIL-HDBK-217F h...... and reliability prediction models are provided. A case study on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical component IGBT modules....

  7. Precision profiles and analytic reliability of radioimmunologic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yaneva, Z.; Popova, Yu.

    1991-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to investigate and compare some methods for creation of 'precision profiles' (PP) and to clarify their possibilities for determining the analytical reliability of RIA. Only methods without complicated mathematical calculations has been used. The reproducibility in serums with a concentration of the determinable hormone in the whole range of the calibration curve has been studied. The radioimmunoassay has been performed with TSH-RIA set (ex East Germany), and comparative evaluations - with commercial sets of HOECHST (Germany) and AMERSHAM (GB). Three methods for obtaining the relationship concentration (IU/l) -reproducibility (C.V.,%) are used and a comparison is made of their corresponding profiles: preliminary rough profile, Rodbard-PP and Ekins-PP. It is concluded that the creation of a precision profile is obligatory and the method of its construction does not influence the relationship's course. PP allows to determine concentration range giving stable results which improves the efficiency of the analitical work. 16 refs., 4 figs

  8. Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems. Markov models are useful in treating dependencies between components. The present paper shows how the adjoint Monte Carlo method for the continuous time Markov process can be derived from the method for the discrete-time Markov process by a limiting process. The straightforward extensions to the treatment of mean unavailability (over a time interval) are given. System unavailabilities can also be estimated; this is done by making the system failed states absorbing, and not permitting repair from them. A forward Monte Carlo method is presented in which the weighting functions are related to the adjoint function. In particular, if the exact adjoint function is known then weighting factors can be constructed such that the exact answer can be obtained with a single Monte Carlo trial. Of course, if the exact adjoint function is known, there is no need to perform the Monte Carlo calculation. However, the formulation is useful since it gives insight into choices of the weight factors which will reduce the variance of the estimator

  9. Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvehag, Karin

    2011-07-01

    Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while under investments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, over investments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socio economically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers. This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socio economically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed riskbased methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk

  10. Extended object-oriented Petri net model for mission reliability simulation of repairable PMS with common cause failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Xin-yang; Wu, Xiao-Yue

    2015-01-01

    Phased Mission Systems (PMS) have several phases with different success criteria. Generally, traditional analytical methods need to make some assumptions when they are applied for reliability evaluation and analysis of complex PMS, for example, the components are non-repairable or components are not subjected to common cause failures (CCF). However, the evaluation and analysis results may be inapplicable when the assumptions do not agree with practical situation. In this article, we propose an extended object-oriented Petri net (EOOPN) model for mission reliability simulation of repairable PMS with CCFs. Based on object-oriented Petri net (OOPN), EOOPN defines four reusable sub-models to depict PMS at system, phase, or component levels respectively, logic transitions to depict complex components reliability logics in a more readable form, and broadcast place to transmit shared information among components synchronously. After extension, EOOPN could deal with repairable PMS with both external and internal CCFs conveniently. The mission reliability modelling, simulation and analysis using EOOPN are illustrated by a PMS example. The results demonstrate that the proposed EOOPN model is effective. - Highlights: • EOOPN model was effective in reliability simulation for repairable PMS with CCFs. • EOOPN had modular and hierarchical structure. • New elements of EOOPN made the modelling process more convenient and friendlier. • EOOPN had better model reusability and readability than other PNs

  11. Development of reliability centered maintenance methods and tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacquot, J.P.; Dubreuil-Chambardel, A.; Lannoy, A.; Monnier, B.

    1992-12-01

    This paper recalls the development of the RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) approach in the nuclear industry and describes the trial study implemented by EDF in the context of the OMF (RCM) Project. The approach developed is currently being applied to about thirty systems (Industrial Project). On a parallel, R and D efforts are being maintained to improve the selectivity of the analysis methods. These methods use Probabilistic Safety Study models, thereby guaranteeing better selectivity in the identification of safety critical elements and enhancing consistency between Maintenance and Safety studies. They also offer more detailed analysis of operation feedback, invoking for example Bayes' methods combining expert judgement and feedback data. Finally, they propose a functional and material representation of the plant. This dual representation describes both the functions assured by maintenance provisions and the material elements required for their implementation. In the final chapter, the targets of the future OMF workstation are summarized and the latter's insertion in the EDF information system is briefly described. (authors). 5 figs., 2 tabs., 7 refs

  12. Reliability theory for repair service organization simulation and increase of innovative attraction of industrial enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolzhenkova, E. V.; Iurieva, L. V.

    2018-05-01

    The study presents the author's algorithm for the industrial enterprise repair service organization simulation based on the reliability theory, as well as the results of its application. The monitoring of the industrial enterprise repair service organization is proposed to perform on the basis of the enterprise's state indexes for the main resources (equipment, labour, finances, repair areas), which allows quantitative evaluation of the reliability level as a resulting summary rating of the said parameters and the ensuring of an appropriate level of the operation reliability of the serviced technical objects. Under the conditions of the tough competition, the following approach is advisable: the higher efficiency of production and a repair service itself, the higher the innovative attractiveness of an industrial enterprise. The results of the calculations show that in order to prevent inefficient losses of production and to reduce the repair costs, it is advisable to apply the reliability theory. The overall reliability rating calculated on the basis of the author's algorithm has low values. The processing of the statistical data forms the reliability characteristics for the different workshops and services of an industrial enterprise, which allows one to define the failure rates of the various units of equipment and to establish the reliability indexes necessary for the subsequent mathematical simulation. The proposed simulating algorithm contributes to an increase of the efficiency of the repair service organization and improvement of the innovative attraction of an industrial enterprise.

  13. Results of a Demonstration Assessment of Passive System Reliability Utilizing the Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia; Grelle, Austin

    2015-04-26

    Advanced small modular reactor designs include many advantageous design features such as passively driven safety systems that are arguably more reliable and cost effective relative to conventional active systems. Despite their attractiveness, a reliability assessment of passive systems can be difficult using conventional reliability methods due to the nature of passive systems. Simple deviations in boundary conditions can induce functional failures in a passive system, and intermediate or unexpected operating modes can also occur. As part of an ongoing project, Argonne National Laboratory is investigating various methodologies to address passive system reliability. The Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS), a systematic approach for examining reliability, is one technique chosen for this analysis. This methodology is combined with the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) approach to assess the reliability of a passive system and the impact of its associated uncertainties. For this demonstration problem, an integrated plant model of an advanced small modular pool-type sodium fast reactor with a passive reactor cavity cooling system is subjected to a station blackout using RELAP5-3D. This paper discusses important aspects of the reliability assessment, including deployment of the methodology, the uncertainty identification and quantification process, and identification of key risk metrics.

  14. A Sequential Kriging reliability analysis method with characteristics of adaptive sampling regions and parallelizability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, Zhixun; Pei, Haiqing; Liu, Hai; Yue, Zhufeng

    2016-01-01

    The sequential Kriging reliability analysis (SKRA) method has been developed in recent years for nonlinear implicit response functions which are expensive to evaluate. This type of method includes EGRA: the efficient reliability analysis method, and AK-MCS: the active learning reliability method combining Kriging model and Monte Carlo simulation. The purpose of this paper is to improve SKRA by adaptive sampling regions and parallelizability. The adaptive sampling regions strategy is proposed to avoid selecting samples in regions where the probability density is so low that the accuracy of these regions has negligible effects on the results. The size of the sampling regions is adapted according to the failure probability calculated by last iteration. Two parallel strategies are introduced and compared, aimed at selecting multiple sample points at a time. The improvement is verified through several troublesome examples. - Highlights: • The ISKRA method improves the efficiency of SKRA. • Adaptive sampling regions strategy reduces the number of needed samples. • The two parallel strategies reduce the number of needed iterations. • The accuracy of the optimal value impacts the number of samples significantly.

  15. Construct Validity and Reliability of Structured Assessment of endoVascular Expertise in a Simulated Setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, B; Lönn, L; Falkenberg, M

    2011-01-01

    Objectives To study the construct validity and reliability of a novel endovascular global rating scale, Structured Assessment of endoVascular Expertise (SAVE). Design A Clinical, experimental study. Materials Twenty physicians with endovascular experiences ranging from complete novices to highly....... Validity was analysed by correlating experience with performance results. Reliability was analysed according to generalisability theory. Results The mean score on the 29 items of the SAVE scale correlated well with clinical experience (R = 0.84, P ... with clinical experience (R = -0.53, P validity and reliability of assessment with the SAVE scale was high when applied to performances in a simulation setting with advanced realism. No ceiling effect...

  16. DEPEND-HRA-A method for consideration of dependency in human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, Marko

    2008-01-01

    A consideration of dependencies between human actions is an important issue within the human reliability analysis. A method was developed, which integrates the features of existing methods and the experience from a full scope plant simulator. The method is used on real plant-specific human reliability analysis as a part of the probabilistic safety assessment of a nuclear power plant. The method distinguishes dependency for pre-initiator events from dependency for initiator and post-initiator events. The method identifies dependencies based on scenarios, where consecutive human actions are modeled, and based on a list of minimal cut sets, which is obtained by running the minimal cut set analysis considering high values of human error probabilities in the evaluation. A large example study, which consisted of a large number of human failure events, demonstrated the applicability of the method. Comparative analyses that were performed show that both selection of dependency method and selection of dependency levels within the method largely impact the results of probabilistic safety assessment. If the core damage frequency is not impacted much, the listings of important basic events in terms of risk increase and risk decrease factors may change considerably. More efforts are needed on the subject, which will prepare the background for more detailed guidelines, which will remove the subjectivity from the evaluations as much as it is possible

  17. Development on methods for evaluating structure reliability of piping components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schimpfke, T.; Grebner, H.; Peschke, J.; Sievers, J.

    2003-01-01

    In the frame of the German reactor safety research program of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour, GRS has started to develop an analysis code named PROST (PRObabilistic STructure analysis) for estimating the leak and break probabilities of piping systems in nuclear power plants. The development is based on the experience achieved with applications of the public available US code PRAISE 3.10 (Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events), which was supplemented by additional features regarding the statistical evaluation and the crack orientation. PROST is designed to be more flexible to changes and supplementations. Up to now it can be used for calculating fatigue problems. The paper mentions the main capabilities and theoretical background of the present PROST development and presents a parametric study on the influence by changing the method of stress intensity factor and limit load calculation and the statistical evaluation options on the leak probability of an exemplary pipe with postulated axial crack distribution. Furthermore the resulting leak probability of an exemplary pipe with postulated circumferential crack distribution is compared with the results of the modified PRAISE computer program. The intention of this investigation is to show trends. Therefore the resulting absolute values for probabilities should not be considered as realistic evaluations. (author)

  18. Methods for qualification of highly reliable software - international procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kersken, M.

    1997-01-01

    Despite the advantages of computer-assisted safety technology, there still is some uneasyness to be observed with respect to the novel processes, resulting from absence of a body of generally accepted and uncontentious qualification guides (regulatory provisions, standards) for safety evaluation of the computer codes applied. Warranty of adequate protection of the population, operators or plant components is an essential aspect in this context, too - as it is in general with reliability and risk assessment of novel technology - so that, due to appropriate legislation still missing, there currently is a licensing risk involved in the introduction of digital safety systems. Nevertheless, there is some extent of agreement within the international community and utility operators about what standards and measures should be applied for qualification of software of relevance to plant safety. The standard IEC 880/IEC 86/ in particular, in its original version, or national documents based on this standard, are applied in all countries using or planning to install those systems. A novel supplement to this standard, document /IEC 96/, is in the process of finalization and defines the requirements to be met by modern methods of software engineering. (orig./DG) [de

  19. Model reliability and software quality assurance in simulation of nuclear fuel waste management systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeren, T.I.; Elzas, M.S.; Sheng, G.; Wageningen Agricultural Univ., Netherlands; McMaster Univ., Hamilton, Ontario)

    1985-01-01

    As is the case with all scientific simulation studies, computerized simulation of nuclear fuel waste management systems can introduce and hide various types of errors. Frameworks to clarify issues of model reliability and software quality assurance are offered. Potential problems with reference to the main areas of concern for reliability and quality are discussed; e.g., experimental issues, decomposition, scope, fidelity, verification, requirements, testing, correctness, robustness are treated with reference to the experience gained in the past. A list comprising over 80 most common computerization errors is provided. Software tools and techniques used to detect and to correct computerization errors are discussed

  20. Safety and reliability analysis based on nonprobabilistic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.O.; Petersen, K.E.

    1996-01-01

    Imprecise probabilities, being developed during the last two decades, offer a considerably more general theory having many advantages which make it very promising for reliability and safety analysis. The objective of the paper is to argue that imprecise probabilities are more appropriate tool for reliability and safety analysis, that they allow to model the behavior of nuclear industry objects more comprehensively and give a possibility to solve some problems unsolved in the framework of conventional approach. Furthermore, some specific examples are given from which we can see the usefulness of the tool for solving some reliability tasks

  1. Review of methods for the integration of reliability and design engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, J.T.

    1978-03-01

    A review of methods for the integration of reliability and design engineering was carried out to establish a reliability program philosophy, an initial set of methods, and procedures to be used by both the designer and reliability analyst. The report outlines a set of procedures which implements a philosophy that requires increased involvement by the designer in reliability analysis. Discussions of each method reviewed include examples of its application

  2. A Hierarchical Reliability Control Method for a Space Manipulator Based on the Strategy of Autonomous Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Gao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to maintain and enhance the operational reliability of a robotic manipulator deployed in space, an operational reliability system control method is presented in this paper. First, a method to divide factors affecting the operational reliability is proposed, which divides the operational reliability factors into task-related factors and cost-related factors. Then the models describing the relationships between the two kinds of factors and control variables are established. Based on this, a multivariable and multiconstraint optimization model is constructed. Second, a hierarchical system control model which incorporates the operational reliability factors is constructed. The control process of the space manipulator is divided into three layers: task planning, path planning, and motion control. Operational reliability related performance parameters are measured and used as the system’s feedback. Taking the factors affecting the operational reliability into consideration, the system can autonomously decide which control layer of the system should be optimized and how to optimize it using a control level adjustment decision module. The operational reliability factors affect these three control levels in the form of control variable constraints. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve a greater probability of meeting the task accuracy requirements, while extending the expected lifetime of the space manipulator.

  3. A reliability analysis framework with Monte Carlo simulation for weld structure of crane's beam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kefei; Xu, Hongwei; Qu, Fuzheng; Wang, Xin; Shi, Yanjun

    2018-04-01

    The reliability of the crane product in engineering is the core competitiveness of the product. This paper used Monte Carlo method analyzed the reliability of the weld metal structure of the bridge crane whose limit state function is mathematical expression. Then we obtained the minimum reliable welding feet height value for the welds between cover plate and web plate on main beam in different coefficients of variation. This paper provides a new idea and reference for the growth of the inherent reliability of crane.

  4. Multi-Level Simulated Fault Injection for Data Dependent Reliability Analysis of RTL Circuit Descriptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NIMARA, S.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes data-dependent reliability evaluation methodology for digital systems described at Register Transfer Level (RTL. It uses a hybrid hierarchical approach, combining the accuracy provided by Gate Level (GL Simulated Fault Injection (SFI and the low simulation overhead required by RTL fault injection. The methodology comprises the following steps: the correct simulation of the RTL system, according to a set of input vectors, hierarchical decomposition of the system into basic RTL blocks, logic synthesis of basic RTL blocks, data-dependent SFI for the GL netlists, and RTL SFI. The proposed methodology has been validated in terms of accuracy on a medium sized circuit – the parallel comparator used in Check Node Unit (CNU of the Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC decoders. The methodology has been applied for the reliability analysis of a 128-bit Advanced Encryption Standard (AES crypto-core, for which the GL simulation was prohibitive in terms of required computational resources.

  5. Method of core thermodynamic reliability determination in pressurized water reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, G.; Horche, W. (Ingenieurhochschule Zittau (German Democratic Republic). Sektion Kraftwerksanlagenbau und Energieumwandlung)

    1983-01-01

    A statistical model appropriate to determine the thermodynamic reliability and the power-limiting parameter of PWR cores is described for cases of accidental transients. The model is compared with the hot channel model hitherto applied.

  6. Method of core thermodynamic reliability determination in pressurized water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackermann, G.; Horche, W.

    1983-01-01

    A statistical model appropriate to determine the thermodynamic reliability and the power-limiting parameter of PWR cores is described for cases of accidental transients. The model is compared with the hot channel model hitherto applied. (author)

  7. Structural Reliability Methods for Wind Power Converter System Component Reliability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    Wind power converter systems are essential subsystems in both off-shore and on-shore wind turbines. It is the main interface between generator and grid connection. This system is affected by numerous stresses where the main contributors might be defined as vibration and temperature loadings....... The temperature variations induce time-varying stresses and thereby fatigue loads. A probabilistic model is used to model fatigue failure for an electrical component in the power converter system. This model is based on a linear damage accumulation and physics of failure approaches, where a failure criterion...... is defined by the threshold model. The attention is focused on crack propagation in solder joints of electrical components due to the temperature loadings. Structural Reliability approaches are used to incorporate model, physical and statistical uncertainties. Reliability estimation by means of structural...

  8. Reliability of single aliquot regenerative protocol (SAR) for dose estimation in quartz at different burial temperatures: A simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koul, D.K.; Pagonis, V.; Patil, P.

    2016-01-01

    The single aliquot regenerative protocol (SAR) is a well-established technique for estimating naturally acquired radiation doses in quartz. This simulation work examines the reliability of SAR protocol for samples which experienced different ambient temperatures in nature in the range of −10 to 40 °C. The contribution of various experimental variables used in SAR protocols to the accuracy and precision of the method is simulated for different ambient temperatures. Specifically the effects of paleo-dose, test dose, pre-heating temperature and cut-heat temperature on the accuracy of equivalent dose (ED) estimation are simulated by using random combinations of the concentrations of traps and centers using a previously published comprehensive quartz model. The findings suggest that the ambient temperature has a significant bearing on the reliability of natural dose estimation using SAR protocol, especially for ambient temperatures above 0 °C. The main source of these inaccuracies seems to be thermal sensitization of the quartz samples caused by the well-known thermal transfer of holes between luminescence centers in quartz. The simulations suggest that most of this inaccuracy in the dose estimation can be removed by delivering the laboratory doses in pulses (pulsed irradiation procedures). - Highlights: • Ambient temperatures affect the reliability of SAR. • It overestimates the dose with increase in burial temperature and burial time periods. • Elevated temperature irradiation does not correct for these overestimations. • Inaccuracies in dose estimation can be removed by incorporating pulsed irradiation procedures.

  9. Methods for Monte Carlo simulations of biomacromolecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitalis, Andreas; Pappu, Rohit V

    2009-01-01

    The state-of-the-art for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of biomacromolecules is reviewed. Available methodologies for sampling conformational equilibria and associations of biomacromolecules in the canonical ensemble, given a continuum description of the solvent environment, are reviewed. Detailed sections are provided dealing with the choice of degrees of freedom, the efficiencies of MC algorithms and algorithmic peculiarities, as well as the optimization of simple movesets. The issue of introducing correlations into elementary MC moves, and the applicability of such methods to simulations of biomacromolecules is discussed. A brief discussion of multicanonical methods and an overview of recent simulation work highlighting the potential of MC methods are also provided. It is argued that MC simulations, while underutilized biomacromolecular simulation community, hold promise for simulations of complex systems and phenomena that span multiple length scales, especially when used in conjunction with implicit solvation models or other coarse graining strategies.

  10. Numerical methods used in simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caseau, Paul; Perrin, Michel; Planchard, Jacques

    1978-01-01

    The fundamental numerical problem posed by simulation problems is the stability of the resolution diagram. The system of the most used equations is defined, since there is a family of models of increasing complexity with 3, 4 or 5 equations although only models with 3 and 4 equations have been used extensively. After defining what is meant by explicit or implicit, the best established stability results is given for one-dimension problems and then for two-dimension problems. It is shown that two types of discretisation may be defined: four and eight point diagrams (in one or two dimensions) and six and ten point diagrams (in one or two dimensions). To end, some results are given on problems that are not usually treated very much, i.e. non-asymptotic stability and the stability of diagrams based on finite elements [fr

  11. Methods for simulating turbulent phase screen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jianzhu; Zhang Feizhou; Wu Yi

    2012-01-01

    Some methods for simulating turbulent phase screen are summarized, and their characteristics are analyzed by calculating the phase structure function, decomposing phase screens into Zernike polynomials, and simulating laser propagation in the atmosphere. Through analyzing, it is found that, the turbulent high-frequency components are well contained by those phase screens simulated by the FFT method, but the low-frequency components are little contained. The low-frequency components are well contained by screens simulated by Zernike method, but the high-frequency components are not contained enough. The high frequency components contained will be improved by increasing the order of the Zernike polynomial, but they mainly lie in the edge-area. Compared with the two methods above, the fractal method is a better method to simulate turbulent phase screens. According to the radius of the focal spot and the variance of the focal spot jitter, there are limitations in the methods except the fractal method. Combining the FFT and Zernike method or combining the FFT method and self-similar theory to simulate turbulent phase screens is an effective and appropriate way. In general, the fractal method is probably the best way. (authors)

  12. Design of thermoelectric modules for both mechanical reliability and performance using FE simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Bjørk, Rasmus; Pryds, Nini

    for these two objectives. The current study deals with FE simulation of the TE modules to optimize their geometrical dimension in terms of mechanical reliability and performance. First, FE simulation of a TE module consisting of bismuth telluride alloys is carried out and the induced thermal stresses, output......, the geometrical dimensions of the TE elements for both mechanical reliability and performance are optimized to obtain a compromise design. The present work provides a basis for optimizing the TE modules in terms of their life time and performance.......Thermo-mechanical modeling of the TE modules provides an efficient tool for assessing the mechanical strength of the modules against the induced thermal stresses and subsequently optimizing them in terms of the mechanical reliability. However, the design of TE modules in terms of mechanical...

  13. Monte Carlo simulation - a powerful tool to support experimental activities in structure reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuritzinn, T.; Chapuliot, S.; Eid, M.; Masson, R.; Dahl, A.; Moinereau, D.

    2003-01-01

    Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) can have different uses in supporting structure reliability investigations and assessments. In this paper we focus our interest on the use of MCS as a numerical tool to support the fitting of the experimental data related to toughness experiments. (authors)

  14. Characteristics and application study of AP1000 NPPs equipment reliability classification method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guan Gao

    2013-01-01

    AP1000 nuclear power plant applies an integrated approach to establish equipment reliability classification, which includes probabilistic risk assessment technique, maintenance rule administrative, power production reliability classification and functional equipment group bounding method, and eventually classify equipment reliability into 4 levels. This classification process and result are very different from classical RCM and streamlined RCM. It studied the characteristic of AP1000 equipment reliability classification approach, considered that equipment reliability classification should effectively support maintenance strategy development and work process control, recommended to use a combined RCM method to establish the future equipment reliability program of AP1000 nuclear power plants. (authors)

  15. Calculation of the reliability of large complex systems by the relevant path method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, G.

    1975-03-01

    In this paper, analytical methods are presented and tested with which the probabilistic reliability data of technical systems can be determined for given fault trees and block diagrams and known reliability data of the components. (orig./AK) [de

  16. Reliability of a semi-quantitative method for dermal exposure assessment (DREAM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wendel de Joode, B. van; Hemmen, J.J. van; Meijster, T.; Major, V.; London, L.; Kromhout, H.

    2005-01-01

    Valid and reliable semi-quantitative dermal exposure assessment methods for epidemiological research and for occupational hygiene practice, applicable for different chemical agents, are practically nonexistent. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability of a recently developed

  17. Detector Simulation: Data Treatment and Analysis Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Apostolakis, J

    2011-01-01

    Detector Simulation in 'Data Treatment and Analysis Methods', part of 'Landolt-Börnstein - Group I Elementary Particles, Nuclei and Atoms: Numerical Data and Functional Relationships in Science and Technology, Volume 21B1: Detectors for Particles and Radiation. Part 1: Principles and Methods'. This document is part of Part 1 'Principles and Methods' of Subvolume B 'Detectors for Particles and Radiation' of Volume 21 'Elementary Particles' of Landolt-Börnstein - Group I 'Elementary Particles, Nuclei and Atoms'. It contains the Section '4.1 Detector Simulation' of Chapter '4 Data Treatment and Analysis Methods' with the content: 4.1 Detector Simulation 4.1.1 Overview of simulation 4.1.1.1 Uses of detector simulation 4.1.2 Stages and types of simulation 4.1.2.1 Tools for event generation and detector simulation 4.1.2.2 Level of simulation and computation time 4.1.2.3 Radiation effects and background studies 4.1.3 Components of detector simulation 4.1.3.1 Geometry modeling 4.1.3.2 External fields 4.1.3.3 Intro...

  18. Isogeometric methods for numerical simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Bordas, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    The book presents the state of the art in isogeometric modeling and shows how the method has advantaged. First an introduction to geometric modeling with NURBS and T-splines is given followed by the implementation into computer software. The implementation in both the FEM and BEM is discussed.

  19. A Reliability Assessment Method for the VHTR Safety Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyung Sok; Jae, Moo Sung; Kim, Yong Wan

    2011-01-01

    The Passive safety system by very high temperature reactor which has attracted worldwide attention in the last century is the reliability safety system introduced for the improvement in the safety of the next generation nuclear power plant design. The Passive system functionality does not rely on an external source of energy, but on an intelligent use of the natural phenomena, such as gravity, conduction and radiation, which are always present. Because of these features, it is difficult to evaluate the passive safety on the risk analysis methodology having considered the existing active system failure. Therefore new reliability methodology has to be considered. In this study, the preliminary evaluation and conceptualization are tried, applying the concept of the load and capacity from the reliability physics model, designing the new passive system analysis methodology, and the trial applying to paper plant.

  20. Real-time tumor ablation simulation based on the dynamic mode decomposition method

    KAUST Repository

    Bourantas, George C.; Ghommem, Mehdi; Kagadis, George C.; Katsanos, Konstantinos H.; Loukopoulos, Vassilios C.; Burganos, Vasilis N.; Nikiforidis, George C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) method is used to provide a reliable forecasting of tumor ablation treatment simulation in real time, which is quite needed in medical practice. To achieve this, an extended Pennes bioheat model must

  1. Reliability-Based Shape Optimization using Stochastic Finite Element Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, Ib; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sigurdsson, G.

    1991-01-01

    stochastic fields (e.g. loads and material parameters such as Young's modulus and the Poisson ratio). In this case stochastic finite element techniques combined with FORM analysis can be used to obtain measures of the reliability of the structural systems, see Der Kiureghian & Ke (6) and Liu & Der Kiureghian...

  2. Survey of industry methods for producing highly reliable software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, J.D.; Persons, W.L.

    1994-11-01

    The Nuclear Reactor Regulation Office of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is charged with assessing the safety of new instrument and control designs for nuclear power plants which may use computer-based reactor protection systems. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has evaluated the latest techniques in software reliability for measurement, estimation, error detection, and prediction that can be used during the software life cycle as a means of risk assessment for reactor protection systems. One aspect of this task has been a survey of the software industry to collect information to help identify the design factors used to improve the reliability and safety of software. The intent was to discover what practices really work in industry and what design factors are used by industry to achieve highly reliable software. The results of the survey are documented in this report. Three companies participated in the survey: Computer Sciences Corporation, International Business Machines (Federal Systems Company), and TRW. Discussions were also held with NASA Software Engineering Lab/University of Maryland/CSC, and the AIAA Software Reliability Project

  3. GPUs, a new tool of acceleration in CFD: efficiency and reliability on smoothed particle hydrodynamics methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro C Crespo

    Full Text Available Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH is a numerical method commonly used in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD to simulate complex free-surface flows. Simulations with this mesh-free particle method far exceed the capacity of a single processor. In this paper, as part of a dual-functioning code for either central processing units (CPUs or Graphics Processor Units (GPUs, a parallelisation using GPUs is presented. The GPU parallelisation technique uses the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA of nVidia devices. Simulations with more than one million particles on a single GPU card exhibit speedups of up to two orders of magnitude over using a single-core CPU. It is demonstrated that the code achieves different speedups with different CUDA-enabled GPUs. The numerical behaviour of the SPH code is validated with a standard benchmark test case of dam break flow impacting on an obstacle where good agreement with the experimental results is observed. Both the achieved speed-ups and the quantitative agreement with experiments suggest that CUDA-based GPU programming can be used in SPH methods with efficiency and reliability.

  4. Advancing methods for reliably assessing motivational interviewing fidelity using the motivational interviewing skills code.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lord, Sarah Peregrine; Can, Doğan; Yi, Michael; Marin, Rebeca; Dunn, Christopher W; Imel, Zac E; Georgiou, Panayiotis; Narayanan, Shrikanth; Steyvers, Mark; Atkins, David C

    2015-02-01

    The current paper presents novel methods for collecting MISC data and accurately assessing reliability of behavior codes at the level of the utterance. The MISC 2.1 was used to rate MI interviews from five randomized trials targeting alcohol and drug use. Sessions were coded at the utterance-level. Utterance-based coding reliability was estimated using three methods and compared to traditional reliability estimates of session tallies. Session-level reliability was generally higher compared to reliability using utterance-based codes, suggesting that typical methods for MISC reliability may be biased. These novel methods in MI fidelity data collection and reliability assessment provided rich data for therapist feedback and further analyses. Beyond implications for fidelity coding, utterance-level coding schemes may elucidate important elements in the counselor-client interaction that could inform theories of change and the practice of MI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A critical evaluation of deterministic methods in size optimisation of reliable and cost effective standalone hybrid renewable energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maheri, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Reliability of a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) strongly depends on various uncertainties affecting the amount of power produced by the system. In the design of systems subject to uncertainties, both deterministic and nondeterministic design approaches can be adopted. In a deterministic design approach, the designer considers the presence of uncertainties and incorporates them indirectly into the design by applying safety factors. It is assumed that, by employing suitable safety factors and considering worst-case-scenarios, reliable systems can be designed. In fact, the multi-objective optimisation problem with two objectives of reliability and cost is reduced to a single-objective optimisation problem with the objective of cost only. In this paper the competence of deterministic design methods in size optimisation of reliable standalone wind–PV–battery, wind–PV–diesel and wind–PV–battery–diesel configurations is examined. For each configuration, first, using different values of safety factors, the optimal size of the system components which minimises the system cost is found deterministically. Then, for each case, using a Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of safety factors on the reliability and the cost are investigated. In performing reliability analysis, several reliability measures, namely, unmet load, blackout durations (total, maximum and average) and mean time between failures are considered. It is shown that the traditional methods of considering the effect of uncertainties in deterministic designs such as design for an autonomy period and employing safety factors have either little or unpredictable impact on the actual reliability of the designed wind–PV–battery configuration. In the case of wind–PV–diesel and wind–PV–battery–diesel configurations it is shown that, while using a high-enough margin of safety in sizing diesel generator leads to reliable systems, the optimum value for this margin of safety leading to a

  6. Reliability improvement methods for sapphire fiber temperature sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schietinger, C.; Adams, B.

    1991-08-01

    Mechanical, optical, electrical, and software design improvements can be brought to bear in the enhancement of fiber-optic sapphire-fiber temperature measurement tool reliability in harsh environments. The optical fiber thermometry (OFT) equipment discussed is used in numerous process industries and generally involves a sapphire sensor, an optical transmission cable, and a microprocessor-based signal analyzer. OFT technology incorporating sensors for corrosive environments, hybrid sensors, and two-wavelength measurements, are discussed.

  7. A Method for Improving Reliability of Radiation Detection using Deep Learning Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Hojong; Kim, Tae-Ho; Han, Byunghun; Kim, Hyunduk; Kim, Ki-duk

    2017-01-01

    Radiation detection is essential technology for overall field of radiation and nuclear engineering. Previously, technology for radiation detection composes of preparation of the table of the input spectrum to output spectrum in advance, which requires simulation of numerous predicted output spectrum with simulation using parameters modeling the spectrum. In this paper, we propose new technique to improve the performance of radiation detector. The software in the radiation detector has been stagnant for a while with possible intrinsic error of simulation. In the proposed method, to predict the input source using output spectrum measured by radiation detector is performed using deep neural network. With highly complex model, we expect that the complex pattern between data and the label can be captured well. Furthermore, the radiation detector should be calibrated regularly and beforehand. We propose a method to calibrate radiation detector using GAN. We hope that the power of deep learning may also reach to radiation detectors and make huge improvement on the field. Using improved radiation detector, the reliability of detection would be confident, and there are many tasks remaining to solve using deep learning in nuclear engineering society.

  8. Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method; Analiza pouzdanosti reaktorskih sistema primenom metoda verovatnoce

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milivojevic, S [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Serbia and Montenegro)

    1974-12-15

    Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component.

  9. Neuropsychological Aspects Observed in a Nuclear Plant Simulator and its Relation with Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prado, E.A.P. do; Martins, M.; Pinheiro, A.; Silveira, J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper will discuss preliminary results of an evaluation methodology for the analysis and quantification of errors in manual (human) operation by training cognitive parameters and skill levels in the complex control system operation using Neuropsychophysiology and Neuro feedback equipment. The research was conducted using a game (nuclear power plant simulator) that simulates concepts of operation of a nuclear plant with a split sample evaluating aspects of learning and knowledge in the nuclear area. Operators were monitored using biomarkers (ECG, EEG, GSR, face detection and eye tracking) and the results were analyzed by Statistical multivariate techniques. An important component in the evaluation of complex systems is the human reliability during operation. Human reliability refers to the probability of the human element perform the tasks scheduled during the defined period for system operation when tested under specified environmental conditions, and additionally not to take any action detrimental to system operation.

  10. Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuyong Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic reliability index and to narrow the range of the nonprobabilistic reliability index. If the range of the reliability index reduces to an acceptable accuracy, the solution will be considered convergent, and the nonprobabilistic reliability index will be obtained. The case study indicates that using the proposed method can avoid oscillating iteration process, make iteration process stable and convergent, reduce iteration steps significantly, and improve computational efficiency and precision significantly compared with the traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method. Finally, the nonprobabilistic reliability evaluation process of bridge will be built through evaluating the reliability of one PC continuous rigid frame bridge with three spans using the proposed method, which appears to be more simple and reliable when lack of samples and parameters in the bridge nonprobabilistic reliability evaluation is present.

  11. Maintenance personnel performance simulation (MAPPS): a model for predicting maintenance performance reliability in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Krois, P.A.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.; Ryan, T.G.

    1983-01-01

    The NRC has developed a structured, quantitative, predictive methodology in the form of a computerized simulation model for assessing maintainer task performance. Objective of the overall program is to develop, validate, and disseminate a practical, useful, and acceptable methodology for the quantitative assessment of NPP maintenance personnel reliability. The program was organized into four phases: (1) scoping study, (2) model development, (3) model evaluation, and (4) model dissemination. The program is currently nearing completion of Phase 2 - Model Development

  12. A simulation model for reliability evaluation of Space Station power systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, C.; Patton, A. D.; Kumar, Mudit; Wagner, H.

    1988-01-01

    A detailed simulation model for the hybrid Space Station power system is presented which allows photovoltaic and solar dynamic power sources to be mixed in varying proportions. The model considers the dependence of reliability and storage characteristics during the sun and eclipse periods, and makes it possible to model the charging and discharging of the energy storage modules in a relatively accurate manner on a continuous basis.

  13. Spectral Methods in Numerical Plasma Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coutsias, E.A.; Hansen, F.R.; Huld, T.

    1989-01-01

    An introduction is given to the use of spectral methods in numerical plasma simulation. As examples of the use of spectral methods, solutions to the two-dimensional Euler equations in both a simple, doubly periodic region, and on an annulus will be shown. In the first case, the solution is expanded...

  14. A Report on Simulation-Driven Reliability and Failure Analysis of Large-Scale Storage Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Lipeng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wang, Feiyi [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Oral, H. Sarp [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Vazhkudai, Sudharshan S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cao, Qing [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2014-11-01

    High-performance computing (HPC) storage systems provide data availability and reliability using various hardware and software fault tolerance techniques. Usually, reliability and availability are calculated at the subsystem or component level using limited metrics such as, mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time to data loss (MTTDL). This often means settling on simple and disconnected failure models (such as exponential failure rate) to achieve tractable and close-formed solutions. However, such models have been shown to be insufficient in assessing end-to-end storage system reliability and availability. We propose a generic simulation framework aimed at analyzing the reliability and availability of storage systems at scale, and investigating what-if scenarios. The framework is designed for an end-to-end storage system, accommodating the various components and subsystems, their interconnections, failure patterns and propagation, and performs dependency analysis to capture a wide-range of failure cases. We evaluate the framework against a large-scale storage system that is in production and analyze its failure projections toward and beyond the end of lifecycle. We also examine the potential operational impact by studying how different types of components affect the overall system reliability and availability, and present the preliminary results

  15. Procedures and methods that increase reliability and reproducibility of the transplanted kidney perfusion index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smokvina, A.

    1994-01-01

    At different times following surgery and during various complications, 119 studies were performed on 57 patients. In many patients studies were repeated several times. Twenty-three studies were performed in as many patients, in whom a normal function of the transplanted kidney was established by other diagnostic methods and retrospective analysis. Comparison was made of the perfusion index results obtained by the Hilson et al. method from 1978 and the ones obtained by my own modified method, which for calculating the index also takes into account: the time difference in appearance of the initial portions of the artery and kidney curves; the positioning of the region of interest over the distal part of the aorta; the bolus injection into the arteriovenous shunt of the forearm with high specific activity of small volumes of Tc-99m labelled agents; a fast 0.5 seconds study of data collection; and a standard for normalization of numerical data. The reliability of one or the other method tested by simulated time shift of the peak of arterial curves shows that the deviation percentage from the main index value in the unmodified method is 2-5 times greater than in the modified method. The normal value of the perfusion index applying the modified method is 91-171. (author)

  16. 2-d Simulations of Test Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thrane, Lars Nyholm

    2004-01-01

    One of the main obstacles for the further development of self-compacting concrete is to relate the fresh concrete properties to the form filling ability. Therefore, simulation of the form filling ability will provide a powerful tool in obtaining this goal. In this paper, a continuum mechanical...... approach is presented by showing initial results from 2-d simulations of the empirical test methods slump flow and L-box. This method assumes a homogeneous material, which is expected to correspond to particle suspensions e.g. concrete, when it remains stable. The simulations have been carried out when...... using both a Newton and Bingham model for characterisation of the rheological properties of the concrete. From the results, it is expected that both the slump flow and L-box can be simulated quite accurately when the model is extended to 3-d and the concrete is characterised according to the Bingham...

  17. Efficient reliability analysis of structures with the rotational quasi-symmetric point- and the maximum entropy methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jun; Dang, Chao; Kong, Fan

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents a new method for efficient structural reliability analysis. In this method, a rotational quasi-symmetric point method (RQ-SPM) is proposed for evaluating the fractional moments of the performance function. Then, the derivation of the performance function's probability density function (PDF) is carried out based on the maximum entropy method in which constraints are specified in terms of fractional moments. In this regard, the probability of failure can be obtained by a simple integral over the performance function's PDF. Six examples, including a finite element-based reliability analysis and a dynamic system with strong nonlinearity, are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed method. All the computed results are compared with those by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It is found that the proposed method can provide very accurate results with low computational effort.

  18. Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon; Prasad, Ramjee

    2013-01-01

    Recently, a need to develop supportive new scientific evidence for contemporary Ayurveda has emerged. One of the research objectives is an assessment of the reliability of diagnoses and treatment. Reliability is a quantitative measure of consistency. It is a crucial issue in classification (such as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine diagnoses is in the formative stage. However, reliability studies in Ayurveda are in the preliminary stage. In this paper, examples are provided to illustrate relevant concepts of reliability studies of diagnostic methods and their implication in practice, education, and training. An introduction to reliability estimates and different study designs and statistical analysis is given for future studies in Ayurveda. PMID:23930037

  19. Novel Methods for Electromagnetic Simulation and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-03

    modeling software that can handle complicated, electrically large objects in a manner that is sufficiently fast to allow design by simulation. 15. SUBJECT...electrically large objects in a manner that is sufficiently fast to allow design by simulation. We also developed new methods for scattering from cavities in a...basis for high fidelity modeling software that can handle complicated, electrically large objects in a manner that is sufficiently fast to allow

  20. Uncertainty analysis methods for estimation of reliability of passive system of VHTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S.J.

    2012-01-01

    An estimation of reliability of passive system for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) is under development in Korea. The essential approach of this estimation is to measure the uncertainty of the system performance under a specific accident condition. The uncertainty propagation approach according to the simulation of phenomenological models (computer codes) is adopted as a typical method to estimate the uncertainty for this purpose. This presentation introduced the uncertainty propagation and discussed the related issues focusing on the propagation object and its surrogates. To achieve a sufficient level of depth of uncertainty results, the applicability of the propagation should be carefully reviewed. For an example study, Latin-hypercube sampling (LHS) method as a direct propagation was tested for a specific accident sequence of VHTR. The reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) developed by KAERI was considered for this example study. This is an air-cooled type passive system that has no active components for its operation. The accident sequence is a low pressure conduction cooling (LPCC) accident that is considered as a design basis accident for the safety design of VHTR. This sequence is due to a large failure of the pressure boundary of the reactor system such as a guillotine break of coolant pipe lines. The presentation discussed the obtained insights (benefit and weakness) to apply an estimation of reliability of passive system

  1. Method for assessing reliability of a network considering probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, M.

    2005-01-01

    A method for assessment of reliability of the network is developed, which uses the features of the fault tree analysis. The method is developed in a way that the increase of the network under consideration does not require significant increase of the model. The method is applied to small examples of network consisting of a small number of nodes and a small number of their connections. The results give the network reliability. They identify equipment, which is to be carefully maintained in order that the network reliability is not reduced, and equipment, which is a candidate for redundancy, as this would improve network reliability significantly. (author)

  2. Hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De wael, Annelies, E-mail: annelies.dewael@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); De Backer, Annick [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Jones, Lewys; Nellist, Peter D. [Department of Materials, University of Oxford, Parks Road, OX1 3PH Oxford (United Kingdom); Van Aert, Sandra, E-mail: sandra.vanaert@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium)

    2017-06-15

    A hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF STEM) images of monotype crystalline nanostructures is presented. Different atom-counting methods already exist for model-like systems. However, the increasing relevance of radiation damage in the study of nanostructures demands a method that allows atom-counting from low dose images with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, the hybrid method directly includes prior knowledge from image simulations into the existing statistics-based method for atom-counting, and accounts in this manner for possible discrepancies between actual and simulated experimental conditions. It is shown by means of simulations and experiments that this hybrid method outperforms the statistics-based method, especially for low electron doses and small nanoparticles. The analysis of a simulated low dose image of a small nanoparticle suggests that this method allows for far more reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials. - Highlights: • A hybrid method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images is introduced. • Image simulations are incorporated into a statistical framework in a reliable manner. • Limits of the existing methods for atom-counting are far exceeded. • Reliable counting results from an experimental low dose image are obtained. • Progress towards reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials is made.

  3. Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of Rock Slopes Using Numerical Analysis and Response Surface Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadashzadeh, N.; Duzgun, H. S. B.; Yesiloglu-Gultekin, N.

    2017-08-01

    While advanced numerical techniques in slope stability analysis are successfully used in deterministic studies, they have so far found limited use in probabilistic analyses due to their high computation cost. The first-order reliability method (FORM) is one of the most efficient probabilistic techniques to perform probabilistic stability analysis by considering the associated uncertainties in the analysis parameters. However, it is not possible to directly use FORM in numerical slope stability evaluations as it requires definition of a limit state performance function. In this study, an integrated methodology for probabilistic numerical modeling of rock slope stability is proposed. The methodology is based on response surface method, where FORM is used to develop an explicit performance function from the results of numerical simulations. The implementation of the proposed methodology is performed by considering a large potential rock wedge in Sumela Monastery, Turkey. The accuracy of the developed performance function to truly represent the limit state surface is evaluated by monitoring the slope behavior. The calculated probability of failure is compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The proposed methodology is found to be 72% more efficient than MCS, while the accuracy is decreased with an error of 24%.

  4. Comparison of Model Reliabilities from Single-Step and Bivariate Blending Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taskinen, Matti; Mäntysaari, Esa; Lidauer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Model based reliabilities in genetic evaluation are compared between three methods: animal model BLUP, single-step BLUP, and bivariate blending after genomic BLUP. The original bivariate blending is revised in this work to better account animal models. The study data is extracted from...... be calculated. Model reliabilities by the single-step and the bivariate blending methods were higher than by animal model due to genomic information. Compared to the single-step method, the bivariate blending method reliability estimates were, in general, lower. Computationally bivariate blending method was......, on the other hand, lighter than the single-step method....

  5. Reliability and Availability Analysis of Some Systems with Common-Cause Failures Using SPICE Circuit Simulation Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Taher Abuelma'atti

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of SPICE circuit simulation program in calculating probabilities, reliability, steady-state availability and mean-time to failure of repairable systems described by Markov models is demonstrated. Two examples are presented. The first example is a warm standby system with common-cause failures and human errors. The second example is a non-identical unit parallel system with common-cause failures. In both cases recourse to numerical solution is inevitable to obtain the Laplace transforms of the probabilities. Results obtained using SPICE are compared with previously published results obtained using the Laplace transform method. Full SPICE listings are included.

  6. RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ENTROPY METHOD FOR SYSTEM CONSISTED OF IDENTICAL EXPONENTIAL UNITS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Youchao; Shi Jun

    2004-01-01

    The reliability assessment of unit-system near two levels is the most important content in the reliability multi-level synthesis of complex systems. Introducing the information theory into system reliability assessment, using the addible characteristic of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, an entropy method of data information conversion is presented for the system consisted of identical exponential units. The basic conversion formulae of entropy method of unit test data are derived based on the principle of information quantity equivalence. The general models of entropy method synthesis assessment for system reliability approximate lower limits are established according to the fundamental principle of the unit reliability assessment. The applications of the entropy method are discussed by way of practical examples. Compared with the traditional methods, the entropy method is found to be valid and practicable and the assessment results are very satisfactory.

  7. Uncertainty analysis of nonlinear systems employing the first-order reliability method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Chan Kyu; Yoo, Hong Hee

    2012-01-01

    In most mechanical systems, properties of the system elements have uncertainties due to several reasons. For example, mass, stiffness coefficient of a spring, damping coefficient of a damper or friction coefficients have uncertain characteristics. The uncertain characteristics of the elements have a direct effect on the system performance uncertainty. It is very important to estimate the performance uncertainty since the performance uncertainty is directly related to manufacturing yield and consumer satisfaction. Due to this reason, the performance uncertainty should be estimated accurately and considered in the system design. In this paper, performance measures are defined for nonlinear vibration systems and the performance measure uncertainties are estimated employing the first order reliability method (FORM). It was found that the FORM could provide good results in spite of the system nonlinear characteristics. Comparing to the results obtained by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), the accuracy of the uncertainty analysis results obtained by the FORM is validated

  8. Matrix method for acoustic levitation simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Marco A B; Perez, Nicolas; Buiochi, Flavio; Adamowski, Julio C

    2011-08-01

    A matrix method is presented for simulating acoustic levitators. A typical acoustic levitator consists of an ultrasonic transducer and a reflector. The matrix method is used to determine the potential for acoustic radiation force that acts on a small sphere in the standing wave field produced by the levitator. The method is based on the Rayleigh integral and it takes into account the multiple reflections that occur between the transducer and the reflector. The potential for acoustic radiation force obtained by the matrix method is validated by comparing the matrix method results with those obtained by the finite element method when using an axisymmetric model of a single-axis acoustic levitator. After validation, the method is applied in the simulation of a noncontact manipulation system consisting of two 37.9-kHz Langevin-type transducers and a plane reflector. The manipulation system allows control of the horizontal position of a small levitated sphere from -6 mm to 6 mm, which is done by changing the phase difference between the two transducers. The horizontal position of the sphere predicted by the matrix method agrees with the horizontal positions measured experimentally with a charge-coupled device camera. The main advantage of the matrix method is that it allows simulation of non-symmetric acoustic levitators without requiring much computational effort.

  9. Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gould, Derek A; Chalmers, Nicholas; Johnson, Sheena J

    2012-01-01

    Recognition of the many limitations of traditional apprenticeship training is driving new approaches to learning medical procedural skills. Among simulation technologies and methods available today, computer-based systems are topical and bring the benefits of automated, repeatable, and reliable p...... performance assessments. Human factors research is central to simulator model development that is relevant to real-world imaging-guided interventional tasks and to the credentialing programs in which it would be used....

  10. The Reliability, Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Value-Added Teacher Assessment Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Stuart S.

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews evidence regarding the intertemporal reliability of teacher rankings based on value-added methods. Value-added methods exhibit low reliability, yet are broadly supported by prominent educational researchers and are increasingly being used to evaluate and fire teachers. The article then presents a cost-effectiveness analysis…

  11. Reliability testing of tendon disease using two different scanning methods in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruyn, George A W; Möller, Ingrid; Garrido, Jesus

    2012-01-01

    To assess the intra- and interobserver reliability of musculoskeletal ultrasonography (US) in detecting inflammatory and destructive tendon abnormalities in patients with RA using two different scanning methods.......To assess the intra- and interobserver reliability of musculoskeletal ultrasonography (US) in detecting inflammatory and destructive tendon abnormalities in patients with RA using two different scanning methods....

  12. Model correction factor method for reliability problems involving integrals of non-Gaussian random fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franchin, P.; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Kiureghian, Armen Der

    2002-01-01

    The model correction factor method (MCFM) is used in conjunction with the first-order reliability method (FORM) to solve structural reliability problems involving integrals of non-Gaussian random fields. The approach replaces the limit-state function with an idealized one, in which the integrals ...

  13. A comparative study on the HW reliability assessment methods for digital I and C equipment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, G. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea); Kim, M. C. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea); Jun, S. T. [KHNP, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    It is necessary to predict or to evaluate the reliability of electronic equipment for the probabilistic safety analysis of digital instrument and control equipment. But most databases for the reliability prediction have no data for the up-to-date equipment and the failure modes are not classified. The prediction results for the specific component show different values according to the methods and databases. For boards and systems each method shows different values than others also. This study is for reliability prediction of PDC system for Wolsong NPP1 as a digital I and C equipment. Various reliability prediction methods and failure databases are used in calculation of the reliability to compare the effects of sensitivity and accuracy of each model and database. Many considerations for the reliability assessment of digital systems are derived with the results of this study. 14 refs., 19 figs., 15 tabs. (Author)

  14. Method of reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and fuzzy math in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhaobing; Deng Jian; Cao Xuewu

    2005-01-01

    Reliability allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. It can not only be applied to determine the reliability characteristic of reactor systems, subsystem and main components but also be performed to improve the design, operation and maintenance of nuclear plants. The fuzzy math known as one of the powerful tools for fuzzy optimization and the fault analysis deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis can be applied to the reliability allocation model so as to work out the problems of fuzzy characteristic of some factors and subsystem's choice respectively in this paper. Thus we develop a failure rate allocation model on the basis of the fault tree analysis and fuzzy math. For the choice of the reliability constraint factors, we choose the six important ones according to practical need for conducting the reliability allocation. The subsystem selected by the top-level fault tree analysis is to avoid allocating reliability for all the equipment and components including the unnecessary parts. During the reliability process, some factors can be calculated or measured quantitatively while others only can be assessed qualitatively by the expert rating method. So we adopt fuzzy decision and dualistic contrast to realize the reliability allocation with the help of fault tree analysis. Finally the example of the emergency diesel generator's reliability allocation is used to illustrate reliability allocation model and improve this model simple and applicable. (authors)

  15. Impact of Loss Synchronization on Reliable High Speed Networks: A Model Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary nature of network evolution demands for simulation models which are flexible, scalable, and easily implementable. In this paper, we propose a fluid based model for performance analysis of reliable high speed networks. In particular, this paper aims to study the dynamic relationship between congestion control algorithms and queue management schemes, in order to develop a better understanding of the causal linkages between the two. We propose a loss synchronization module which is user configurable. We validate our model through simulations under controlled settings. Also, we present a performance analysis to provide insights into two important issues concerning 10 Gbps high speed networks: (i impact of bottleneck buffer size on the performance of 10 Gbps high speed network and (ii impact of level of loss synchronization on link utilization-fairness tradeoffs. The practical impact of the proposed work is to provide design guidelines along with a powerful simulation tool to protocol designers and network developers.

  16. Halo Models of Large Scale Structure and Reliability of Cosmological N-Body Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Gaite

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Halo models of the large scale structure of the Universe are critically examined, focusing on the definition of halos as smooth distributions of cold dark matter. This definition is essentially based on the results of cosmological N-body simulations. By a careful analysis of the standard assumptions of halo models and N-body simulations and by taking into account previous studies of self-similarity of the cosmic web structure, we conclude that N-body cosmological simulations are not fully reliable in the range of scales where halos appear. Therefore, to have a consistent definition of halos is necessary either to define them as entities of arbitrary size with a grainy rather than smooth structure or to define their size in terms of small-scale baryonic physics.

  17. Calibration Methods for Reliability-Based Design Codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gayton, N.; Mohamed, A.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2004-01-01

    The calibration methods are applied to define the optimal code format according to some target safety levels. The calibration procedure can be seen as a specific optimization process where the control variables are the partial factors of the code. Different methods are available in the literature...

  18. Rapid and Reliable HPLC Method for the Determination of Vitamin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: To develop and validate an accurate, sensitive and reproducible high performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) method for the quantitation of vitamin C in pharmaceutical samples. Method: The drug and the standard were eluted from Superspher RP-18 (250 mm x 4.6 mm, 10ìm particle size) at 20 0C.

  19. Evaluation and reliability of bone histological age estimation methods

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Human age estimation at death plays a vital role in forensic anthropology and bioarchaeology. Researchers used morphological and histological methods to estimate human age from their skeletal remains. This paper discussed different histological methods that used human long bones and ribs to determine age ...

  20. A fast method for calculating reliable event supports in tree reconciliations via Pareto optimality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, Thu-Hien; Jacox, Edwin; Ranwez, Vincent; Scornavacca, Celine

    2015-11-14

    Given a gene and a species tree, reconciliation methods attempt to retrieve the macro-evolutionary events that best explain the discrepancies between the two tree topologies. The DTL parsimonious approach searches for a most parsimonious reconciliation between a gene tree and a (dated) species tree, considering four possible macro-evolutionary events (speciation, duplication, transfer, and loss) with specific costs. Unfortunately, many events are erroneously predicted due to errors in the input trees, inappropriate input cost values or because of the existence of several equally parsimonious scenarios. It is thus crucial to provide a measure of the reliability for predicted events. It has been recently proposed that the reliability of an event can be estimated via its frequency in the set of most parsimonious reconciliations obtained using a variety of reasonable input cost vectors. To compute such a support, a straightforward but time-consuming approach is to generate the costs slightly departing from the original ones, independently compute the set of all most parsimonious reconciliations for each vector, and combine these sets a posteriori. Another proposed approach uses Pareto-optimality to partition cost values into regions which induce reconciliations with the same number of DTL events. The support of an event is then defined as its frequency in the set of regions. However, often, the number of regions is not large enough to provide reliable supports. We present here a method to compute efficiently event supports via a polynomial-sized graph, which can represent all reconciliations for several different costs. Moreover, two methods are proposed to take into account alternative input costs: either explicitly providing an input cost range or allowing a tolerance for the over cost of a reconciliation. Our methods are faster than the region based method, substantially faster than the sampling-costs approach, and have a higher event-prediction accuracy on

  1. Method matters: Understanding diagnostic reliability in DSM-IV and DSM-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmielewski, Michael; Clark, Lee Anna; Bagby, R Michael; Watson, David

    2015-08-01

    Diagnostic reliability is essential for the science and practice of psychology, in part because reliability is necessary for validity. Recently, the DSM-5 field trials documented lower diagnostic reliability than past field trials and the general research literature, resulting in substantial criticism of the DSM-5 diagnostic criteria. Rather than indicating specific problems with DSM-5, however, the field trials may have revealed long-standing diagnostic issues that have been hidden due to a reliance on audio/video recordings for estimating reliability. We estimated the reliability of DSM-IV diagnoses using both the standard audio-recording method and the test-retest method used in the DSM-5 field trials, in which different clinicians conduct separate interviews. Psychiatric patients (N = 339) were diagnosed using the SCID-I/P; 218 were diagnosed a second time by an independent interviewer. Diagnostic reliability using the audio-recording method (N = 49) was "good" to "excellent" (M κ = .80) and comparable to the DSM-IV field trials estimates. Reliability using the test-retest method (N = 218) was "poor" to "fair" (M κ = .47) and similar to DSM-5 field-trials' estimates. Despite low test-retest diagnostic reliability, self-reported symptoms were highly stable. Moreover, there was no association between change in self-report and change in diagnostic status. These results demonstrate the influence of method on estimates of diagnostic reliability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Methods for reliability evaluation of trust and reputation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janiszewski, Marek B.

    2016-09-01

    Trust and reputation systems are a systematic approach to build security on the basis of observations of node's behaviour. Exchange of node's opinions about other nodes is very useful to indicate nodes which act selfishly or maliciously. The idea behind trust and reputation systems gets significance because of the fact that conventional security measures (based on cryptography) are often not sufficient. Trust and reputation systems can be used in various types of networks such as WSN, MANET, P2P and also in e-commerce applications. Trust and reputation systems give not only benefits but also could be a thread itself. Many attacks aim at trust and reputation systems exist, but such attacks still have not gain enough attention of research teams. Moreover, joint effects of many of known attacks have been determined as a very interesting field of research. Lack of an acknowledged methodology of evaluation of trust and reputation systems is a serious problem. This paper aims at presenting various approaches of evaluation such systems. This work also contains a description of generalization of many trust and reputation systems which can be used to evaluate reliability of such systems in the context of preventing various attacks.

  3. Experiences using DAKOTA stochastic expansion methods in computational simulations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Templeton, Jeremy Alan; Ruthruff, Joseph R.

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods bring rigorous statistical connections to the analysis of computational and experiment data, and provide a basis for probabilistically assessing margins associated with safety and reliability. The DAKOTA toolkit developed at Sandia National Laboratories implements a number of UQ methods, which are being increasingly adopted by modeling and simulation teams to facilitate these analyses. This report disseminates results as to the performance of DAKOTA's stochastic expansion methods for UQ on a representative application. Our results provide a number of insights that may be of interest to future users of these methods, including the behavior of the methods in estimating responses at varying probability levels, and the expansion levels for the methodologies that may be needed to achieve convergence.

  4. Quantum control with NMR methods: Application to quantum simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negrevergne, Camille

    2002-01-01

    Manipulating information according to quantum laws allows improvements in the efficiency of the way we treat certain problems. Liquid state Nuclear Magnetic Resonance methods allow us to initialize, manipulate and read the quantum state of a system of coupled spins. These methods have been used to realize an experimental small Quantum Information Processor (QIP) able to process information through around hundred elementary operations. One of the main themes of this work was to design, optimize and validate reliable RF-pulse sequences used to 'program' the QIP. Such techniques have been used to run a quantum simulation algorithm for anionic systems. Some experimental results have been obtained on the determination of Eigen energies and correlation function for a toy problem consisting of fermions on a lattice, showing an experimental proof of principle for such quantum simulations. (author) [fr

  5. Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanjilal, Oindrila, E-mail: oindrila@civil.iisc.ernet.in; Manohar, C.S., E-mail: manohar@civil.iisc.ernet.in

    2017-07-15

    The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • The distance minimizing control forces minimize a bound on the sampling variance. • Establishing Girsanov controls via solution of a two-point boundary value problem. • Girsanov controls via Volterra's series representation for the transfer functions.

  6. Comparison of Methods for Dependency Determination between Human Failure Events within Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, M.

    2008-01-01

    The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan human reliability analysis (IJS-HRA) and standardized plant analysis risk human reliability analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance

  7. Comparison of methods for dependency determination between human failure events within human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepis, M.

    2007-01-01

    The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease of subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan - Human Reliability Analysis (IJS-HRA) and Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance. (author)

  8. Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair

    2014-09-01

    Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours. In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters

  9. A stochastic simulation model for reliable PV system sizing providing for solar radiation fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplani, E.; Kaplanis, S.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Solar radiation data for European cities follow the Extreme Value or Weibull distribution. ► Simulation model for the sizing of SAPV systems based on energy balance and stochastic analysis. ► Simulation of PV Generator-Loads-Battery Storage System performance for all months. ► Minimum peak power and battery capacity required for reliable SAPV sizing for various European cities. ► Peak power and battery capacity reduced by more than 30% for operation 95% success rate. -- Abstract: The large fluctuations observed in the daily solar radiation profiles affect highly the reliability of the PV system sizing. Increasing the reliability of the PV system requires higher installed peak power (P m ) and larger battery storage capacity (C L ). This leads to increased costs, and makes PV technology less competitive. This research paper presents a new stochastic simulation model for stand-alone PV systems, developed to determine the minimum installed P m and C L for the PV system to be energy independent. The stochastic simulation model developed, makes use of knowledge acquired from an in-depth statistical analysis of the solar radiation data for the site, and simulates the energy delivered, the excess energy burnt, the load profiles and the state of charge of the battery system for the month the sizing is applied, and the PV system performance for the entire year. The simulation model provides the user with values for the autonomy factor d, simulating PV performance in order to determine the minimum P m and C L depending on the requirements of the application, i.e. operation with critical or non-critical loads. The model makes use of NASA’s Surface meteorology and Solar Energy database for the years 1990–2004 for various cities in Europe with a different climate. The results obtained with this new methodology indicate a substantial reduction in installed peak power and battery capacity, both for critical and non-critical operation, when compared to

  10. [A reliability growth assessment method and its application in the development of equipment in space cabin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J D; Sun, H L

    1999-04-01

    Objective. To assess and predict reliability of an equipment dynamically by making full use of various test informations in the development of products. Method. A new reliability growth assessment method based on army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) model was developed. The method is composed of the AMSAA model and test data conversion technology. Result. The assessment and prediction results of a space-borne equipment conform to its expectations. Conclusion. It is suggested that this method should be further researched and popularized.

  11. Simulation teaching method in Engineering Optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Qieni; Wang, Yi; Li, Hongbin

    2017-08-01

    We here introduce a pedagogical method of theoretical simulation as one major means of the teaching process of "Engineering Optics" in course quality improvement action plan (Qc) in our school. Students, in groups of three to five, complete simulations of interference, diffraction, electromagnetism and polarization of light; each student is evaluated and scored in light of his performance in the interviews between the teacher and the student, and each student can opt to be interviewed many times until he is satisfied with his score and learning. After three years of Qc practice, the remarkable teaching and learning effect is obatined. Such theoretical simulation experiment is a very valuable teaching method worthwhile for physical optics which is highly theoretical and abstruse. This teaching methodology works well in training students as to how to ask questions and how to solve problems, which can also stimulate their interest in research learning and their initiative to develop their self-confidence and sense of innovation.

  12. Using DOProC method in reliability assessment of steel elements exposed to fatigue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krejsa Martin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue crack damage depends on a number of stress range cycles. This is a time factor in the course of reliability for the entire designed service life. Three sizes are important for the characteristics of the propagation of fatigue cracks - initial size, detectable size and acceptable size. The theoretical model of fatigue crack progression can be based on a linear fracture mechanic. Depending on location of an initial crack, the crack may propagate in structural element e.g. from the edge or from the surface. When determining the required degree of reliability, it is possible to specify the time of the first inspection of the construction which will focus on the fatigue damage. Using a conditional probability and Bayesian approach, times for subsequent inspections can be determined. For probabilistic modelling of fatigue crack progression was used the original and new probabilistic method - the Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (“DOProC”, which uses a purely numerical approach without any simulation techniques or approximation approach based on optimized numerical integration.

  13. Hybrid Method Simulation of Slender Marine Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Niels Hørbye

    This present thesis consists of an extended summary and five appended papers concerning various aspects of the implementation of a hybrid method which combines classical simulation methods and artificial neural networks. The thesis covers three main topics. Common for all these topics...... only recognize patterns similar to those comprised in the data used to train the network. Fatigue life evaluation of marine structures often considers simulations of more than a hundred different sea states. Hence, in order for this method to be useful, the training data must be arranged so...... that a single neural network can cover all relevant sea states. The applicability and performance of the present hybrid method is demonstrated on a numerical model of a mooring line attached to a floating offshore platform. The second part of the thesis demonstrates how sequential neural networks can be used...

  14. Reliable method for fission source convergence of Monte Carlo criticality calculation with Wielandt's method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Toshihiro; Miyoshi, Yoshinori

    2004-01-01

    A new algorithm of Monte Carlo criticality calculations for implementing Wielandt's method, which is one of acceleration techniques for deterministic source iteration methods, is developed, and the algorithm can be successfully implemented into MCNP code. In this algorithm, part of fission neutrons emitted during random walk processes are tracked within the current cycle, and thus a fission source distribution used in the next cycle spread more widely. Applying this method intensifies a neutron interaction effect even in a loosely-coupled array where conventional Monte Carlo criticality methods have difficulties, and a converged fission source distribution can be obtained with fewer cycles. Computing time spent for one cycle, however, increases because of tracking fission neutrons within the current cycle, which eventually results in an increase of total computing time up to convergence. In addition, statistical fluctuations of a fission source distribution in a cycle are worsened by applying Wielandt's method to Monte Carlo criticality calculations. However, since a fission source convergence is attained with fewer source iterations, a reliable determination of convergence can easily be made even in a system with a slow convergence. This acceleration method is expected to contribute to prevention of incorrect Monte Carlo criticality calculations. (author)

  15. A New Method of Reliability Evaluation Based on Wavelet Information Entropy for Equipment Condition Identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Z J; Zhang, X L; Chen, X F

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at reliability evaluation of condition identification of mechanical equipment, it is necessary to analyze condition monitoring information. A new method of reliability evaluation based on wavelet information entropy extracted from vibration signals of mechanical equipment is proposed. The method is quite different from traditional reliability evaluation models that are dependent on probability statistics analysis of large number sample data. The vibration signals of mechanical equipment were analyzed by means of second generation wavelet package (SGWP). We take relative energy in each frequency band of decomposed signal that equals a percentage of the whole signal energy as probability. Normalized information entropy (IE) is obtained based on the relative energy to describe uncertainty of a system instead of probability. The reliability degree is transformed by the normalized wavelet information entropy. A successful application has been achieved to evaluate the assembled quality reliability for a kind of dismountable disk-drum aero-engine. The reliability degree indicates the assembled quality satisfactorily.

  16. Integrated Markov-neural reliability computation method: A case for multiple automated guided vehicle system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazlollahtabar, Hamed; Saidi-Mehrabad, Mohammad; Balakrishnan, Jaydeep

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an integrated Markovian and back propagation neural network approaches to compute reliability of a system. While states of failure occurrences are significant elements for accurate reliability computation, Markovian based reliability assessment method is designed. Due to drawbacks shown by Markovian model for steady state reliability computations and neural network for initial training pattern, integration being called Markov-neural is developed and evaluated. To show efficiency of the proposed approach comparative analyses are performed. Also, for managerial implication purpose an application case for multiple automated guided vehicles (AGVs) in manufacturing networks is conducted. - Highlights: • Integrated Markovian and back propagation neural network approach to compute reliability. • Markovian based reliability assessment method. • Managerial implication is shown in an application case for multiple automated guided vehicles (AGVs) in manufacturing networks

  17. A Simulation Method Measuring Psychomotor Nursing Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, Helena; And Others

    1981-01-01

    The development of a simulation technique to evaluate performance of psychomotor skills in an undergraduate nursing program is described. This method is used as one admission requirement to an alternate route nursing program. With modifications, any health profession could use this technique where psychomotor skills performance is important.…

  18. Assessment of modern methods of human factor reliability analysis in PSA studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holy, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: Classical terms and objects (Probabilistic safety assessment as a framework for human reliability assessment; Human failure within the PSA model; Basic types of operator failure modelled in a PSA study and analyzed by HRA methods; Qualitative analysis of human reliability; Quantitative analysis of human reliability used; Process of analysis of nuclear reactor operator reliability in a PSA study); New terms and objects (Analysis of dependences; Errors of omission; Errors of commission; Error forcing context); and Overview and brief assessment of human reliability analysis (Basic characteristics of the methods; Assets and drawbacks of the use of each of HRA method; History and prospects of the use of the methods). (P.A.)

  19. Study of Fuze Structure and Reliability Design Based on the Direct Search Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhang; Ning, Wang

    2017-03-01

    Redundant design is one of the important methods to improve the reliability of the system, but mutual coupling of multiple factors is often involved in the design. In my study, Direct Search Method is introduced into the optimum redundancy configuration for design optimization, in which, the reliability, cost, structural weight and other factors can be taken into account simultaneously, and the redundant allocation and reliability design of aircraft critical system are computed. The results show that this method is convenient and workable, and applicable to the redundancy configurations and optimization of various designs upon appropriate modifications. And this method has a good practical value.

  20. Application of reliability analysis methods to the comparison of two safety circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Signoret, J.-P.

    1975-01-01

    Two circuits of different design, intended for assuming the ''Low Pressure Safety Injection'' function in PWR reactors are analyzed using reliability methods. The reliability analysis of these circuits allows the failure trees to be established and the failure probability derived. The dependence of these results on test use and maintenance is emphasized as well as critical paths. The great number of results obtained may allow a well-informed choice taking account of the reliability wanted for the type of circuits [fr

  1. Interrater Reliability of the Power Mobility Road Test in the Virtual Reality-Based Simulator-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaraj, Deepan C; Dicianno, Brad E; Mahajan, Harshal P; Buhari, Alhaji M; Cooper, Rory A

    2016-07-01

    To assess interrater reliability of the Power Mobility Road Test (PMRT) when administered through the Virtual Reality-based SIMulator-version 2 (VRSIM-2). Within-subjects repeated-measures design. Participants interacted with VRSIM-2 through 2 display options (desktop monitor vs immersive virtual reality screens) using 2 control interfaces (roller system vs conventional movement-sensing joystick), providing 4 different driving scenarios (driving conditions 1-4). Participants performed 3 virtual driving sessions for each of the 2 display screens and 1 session through a real-world driving course (driving condition 5). The virtual PMRT was conducted in a simulated indoor office space, and an equivalent course was charted in an open space for the real-world assessment. After every change in driving condition, participants completed a self-reported workload assessment questionnaire, the Task Load Index, developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. A convenience sample of electric-powered wheelchair (EPW) athletes (N=21) recruited at the 31st National Veterans Wheelchair Games. Not applicable. Total composite PMRT score. The PMRT had high interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC]>.75) between the 2 raters in all 5 driving conditions. Post hoc analyses revealed that the reliability analyses had >80% power to detect high ICCs in driving conditions 1 and 4. The PMRT has high interrater reliability in conditions 1 and 4 and could be used to assess EPW driving performance virtually in VRSIM-2. However, further psychometric assessment is necessary to assess the feasibility of administering the PMRT using the different interfaces of VRSIM-2. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The Language Teaching Methods Scale: Reliability and Validity Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okmen, Burcu; Kilic, Abdurrahman

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this research is to develop a scale to determine the language teaching methods used by English teachers. The research sample consisted of 300 English teachers who taught at Duzce University and in primary schools, secondary schools and high schools in the Provincial Management of National Education in the city of Duzce in 2013-2014…

  3. A method to determine validity and reliability of activity sensors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boerema, Simone Theresa; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2013-01-01

    METHOD Four sensors were securely fastened to a mechanical oscillator (Vibration Exciter, type 4809, Brüel & Kjær) and moved at various frequencies (6.67Hz; 13.45Hz; 19.88Hz) within the range of human physical activity. For each of the three sensor axes, the sensors were simultaneously moved for

  4. Reliability and Validity of the Research Methods Skills Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tamarah; Smith, Samantha

    2018-01-01

    The Research Methods Skills Assessment (RMSA) was created to measure psychology majors' statistics knowledge and skills. The American Psychological Association's Guidelines for the Undergraduate Major in Psychology (APA, 2007, 2013) served as a framework for development. Results from a Rasch analysis with data from n = 330 undergraduates showed…

  5. A hybrid load flow and event driven simulation approach to multi-state system reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George-Williams, Hindolo; Patelli, Edoardo

    2016-01-01

    Structural complexity of systems, coupled with their multi-state characteristics, renders their reliability and availability evaluation difficult. Notwithstanding the emergence of various techniques dedicated to complex multi-state system analysis, simulation remains the only approach applicable to realistic systems. However, most simulation algorithms are either system specific or limited to simple systems since they require enumerating all possible system states, defining the cut-sets associated with each state and monitoring their occurrence. In addition to being extremely tedious for large complex systems, state enumeration and cut-set definition require a detailed understanding of the system's failure mechanism. In this paper, a simple and generally applicable simulation approach, enhanced for multi-state systems of any topology is presented. Here, each component is defined as a Semi-Markov stochastic process and via discrete-event simulation, the operation of the system is mimicked. The principles of flow conservation are invoked to determine flow across the system for every performance level change of its components using the interior-point algorithm. This eliminates the need for cut-set definition and overcomes the limitations of existing techniques. The methodology can also be exploited to account for effects of transmission efficiency and loading restrictions of components on system reliability and performance. The principles and algorithms developed are applied to two numerical examples to demonstrate their applicability. - Highlights: • A discrete event simulation model based on load flow principles. • Model does not require system path or cut sets. • Applicable to binary and multi-state systems of any topology. • Supports multiple output systems with competing demand. • Model is intuitive and generally applicable.

  6. An Efficient Simulation Method for Rare Events

    KAUST Repository

    Rached, Nadhir B.

    2015-01-07

    Estimating the probability that a sum of random variables (RVs) exceeds a given threshold is a well-known challenging problem. Closed-form expressions for the sum distribution do not generally exist, which has led to an increasing interest in simulation approaches. A crude Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the standard technique for the estimation of this type of probability. However, this approach is computationally expensive, especially when dealing with rare events. Variance reduction techniques are alternative approaches that can improve the computational efficiency of naive MC simulations. We propose an Importance Sampling (IS) simulation technique based on the well-known hazard rate twisting approach, that presents the advantage of being asymptotically optimal for any arbitrary RVs. The wide scope of applicability of the proposed method is mainly due to our particular way of selecting the twisting parameter. It is worth observing that this interesting feature is rarely satisfied by variance reduction algorithms whose performances were only proven under some restrictive assumptions. It comes along with a good efficiency, illustrated by some selected simulation results comparing the performance of our method with that of an algorithm based on a conditional MC technique.

  7. An Efficient Simulation Method for Rare Events

    KAUST Repository

    Rached, Nadhir B.; Benkhelifa, Fatma; Kammoun, Abla; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Tempone, Raul

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the probability that a sum of random variables (RVs) exceeds a given threshold is a well-known challenging problem. Closed-form expressions for the sum distribution do not generally exist, which has led to an increasing interest in simulation approaches. A crude Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the standard technique for the estimation of this type of probability. However, this approach is computationally expensive, especially when dealing with rare events. Variance reduction techniques are alternative approaches that can improve the computational efficiency of naive MC simulations. We propose an Importance Sampling (IS) simulation technique based on the well-known hazard rate twisting approach, that presents the advantage of being asymptotically optimal for any arbitrary RVs. The wide scope of applicability of the proposed method is mainly due to our particular way of selecting the twisting parameter. It is worth observing that this interesting feature is rarely satisfied by variance reduction algorithms whose performances were only proven under some restrictive assumptions. It comes along with a good efficiency, illustrated by some selected simulation results comparing the performance of our method with that of an algorithm based on a conditional MC technique.

  8. Reliability and validity of non-radiographic methods of thoracic kyphosis measurement: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Eva; McCreesh, Karen; Lewis, Jeremy

    2014-02-01

    A wide array of instruments are available for non-invasive thoracic kyphosis measurement. Guidelines for selecting outcome measures for use in clinical and research practice recommend that properties such as validity and reliability are considered. This systematic review reports on the reliability and validity of non-invasive methods for measuring thoracic kyphosis. A systematic search of 11 electronic databases located studies assessing reliability and/or validity of non-invasive thoracic kyphosis measurement techniques. Two independent reviewers used a critical appraisal tool to assess the quality of retrieved studies. Data was extracted by the primary reviewer. The results were synthesized qualitatively using a level of evidence approach. 27 studies satisfied the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. The reliability, validity and both reliability and validity were investigated by sixteen, two and nine studies respectively. 17/27 studies were deemed to be of high quality. In total, 15 methods of thoracic kyphosis were evaluated in retrieved studies. All investigated methods showed high (ICC ≥ .7) to very high (ICC ≥ .9) levels of reliability. The validity of the methods ranged from low to very high. The strongest levels of evidence for reliability exists in support of the Debrunner kyphometer, Spinal Mouse and Flexicurve index, and for validity supports the arcometer and Flexicurve index. Further reliability and validity studies are required to strengthen the level of evidence for the remaining methods of measurement. This should be addressed by future research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Radioisotope method potentialities in machine reliability and durability enhancement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postnikov, V.I.

    1975-01-01

    The development of a surface activation method is reviewed with regard to wear of machine parts. Examples demonstrating the highly promising aspects and practical application of the method are cited. The use of high-sensitivity instruments and variation of activation depth from 10 um to 0.5 mm allows to perform the investigations at a sensitivity of 0.05 um and to estimate the linear values of machine wear. Standard diagrams are presented for measuring the wear of different machine parts by means of surface activation. Investigations performed at several Soviet technological institutes afford a set of dependences, which characterize the distribution of radioactive isotopes in depth under different conditions of activation of diverse metals and alloys and permit to study the wear of any metal

  10. TESTING METHODS FOR MECHANICALLY IMPROVED SOILS: RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Petkovšek

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A possibility of in-situ mechanical improvement for reducing the liquefaction potential of silty sands was investigated by using three different techniques: Vibratory Roller Compaction, Rapid Impact Compaction (RIC and Soil Mixing. Material properties at all test sites were investigated before and after improvement with the laboratory and the in situ tests (CPT, SDMT, DPSH B, static and dynamic load plate test, geohydraulic tests. Correlation between the results obtained by different test methods gave inconclusive answers.

  11. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  12. Reliability and validity of the AutoCAD software method in lumbar lordosis measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letafatkar, Amir; Amirsasan, Ramin; Abdolvahabi, Zahra; Hadadnezhad, Malihe

    2011-12-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the reliability and validity of the AutoCAD software method in lumbar lordosis measurement. Fifty healthy volunteers with a mean age of 23 ± 1.80 years were enrolled. A lumbar lateral radiograph was taken on all participants, and the lordosis was measured according to the Cobb method. Afterward, the lumbar lordosis degree was measured via AutoCAD software and flexible ruler methods. The current study is accomplished in 2 parts: intratester and intertester evaluations of reliability as well as the validity of the flexible ruler and software methods. Based on the intraclass correlation coefficient, AutoCAD's reliability and validity in measuring lumbar lordosis were 0.984 and 0.962, respectively. AutoCAD showed to be a reliable and valid method to measure lordosis. It is suggested that this method may replace those that are costly and involve health risks, such as radiography, in evaluating lumbar lordosis.

  13. Modeling and simulation of different and representative engineering problems using Network Simulation Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Pérez, J F; Marín, F; Morales, J L; Cánovas, M; Alhama, F

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical models simulating different and representative engineering problem, atomic dry friction, the moving front problems and elastic and solid mechanics are presented in the form of a set of non-linear, coupled or not coupled differential equations. For different parameters values that influence the solution, the problem is numerically solved by the network method, which provides all the variables of the problems. Although the model is extremely sensitive to the above parameters, no assumptions are considered as regards the linearization of the variables. The design of the models, which are run on standard electrical circuit simulation software, is explained in detail. The network model results are compared with common numerical methods or experimental data, published in the scientific literature, to show the reliability of the model.

  14. Modeling and simulation of different and representative engineering problems using Network Simulation Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical models simulating different and representative engineering problem, atomic dry friction, the moving front problems and elastic and solid mechanics are presented in the form of a set of non-linear, coupled or not coupled differential equations. For different parameters values that influence the solution, the problem is numerically solved by the network method, which provides all the variables of the problems. Although the model is extremely sensitive to the above parameters, no assumptions are considered as regards the linearization of the variables. The design of the models, which are run on standard electrical circuit simulation software, is explained in detail. The network model results are compared with common numerical methods or experimental data, published in the scientific literature, to show the reliability of the model. PMID:29518121

  15. Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Xuyong; Chen, Qian; Bian, Xiaoya; Fan, Jianping

    2017-01-01

    Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic ...

  16. System reliability with correlated components: Accuracy of the Equivalent Planes method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roscoe, K.; Diermanse, F.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2015-01-01

    Computing system reliability when system components are correlated presents a challenge because it usually requires solving multi-fold integrals numerically, which is generally infeasible due to the computational cost. In Dutch flood defense reliability modeling, an efficient method for computing

  17. System reliability with correlated components : Accuracy of the Equivalent Planes method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roscoe, K.; Diermanse, F.; Vrouwenvelder, T.

    2015-01-01

    Computing system reliability when system components are correlated presents a challenge because it usually requires solving multi-fold integrals numerically, which is generally infeasible due to the computational cost. In Dutch flood defense reliability modeling, an efficient method for computing

  18. Simulation methods for nuclear production scheduling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miles, W.T.; Markel, L.C.

    1975-01-01

    Recent developments and applications of simulation methods for use in nuclear production scheduling and fuel management are reviewed. The unique characteristics of the nuclear fuel cycle as they relate to the overall optimization of a mixed nuclear-fossil system in both the short-and mid-range time frame are described. Emphasis is placed on the various formulations and approaches to the mid-range planning problem, whose objective is the determination of an optimal (least cost) system operation strategy over a multi-year planning horizon. The decomposition of the mid-range problem into power system simulation, reactor core simulation and nuclear fuel management optimization, and system integration models is discussed. Present utility practices, requirements, and research trends are described. 37 references

  19. Automated migration analysis based on cell texture: method & reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chittenden Thomas W

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this paper, we present and validate a way to measure automatically the extent of cell migration based on automated examination of a series of digital photographs. It was designed specifically to identify the impact of Second Hand Smoke (SHS on endothelial cell migration but has broader applications. The analysis has two stages: (1 preprocessing of image texture, and (2 migration analysis. Results The output is a graphic overlay that indicates the front lines of cell migration superimposed on each original image, with automated reporting of the distance traversed vs. time. Expert preference compares to manual placement of leading edge shows complete equivalence of automated vs. manual leading edge definition for cell migration measurement. Conclusion Our method is indistinguishable from careful manual determinations of cell front lines, with the advantages of full automation, objectivity, and speed.

  20. Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turati, Pietro; Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The efficient estimation of system reliability characteristics is of paramount importance for many engineering applications. Real world system reliability modeling calls for the capability of treating systems that are: i) dynamic, ii) complex, iii) hybrid and iv) highly reliable. Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) methods offer a way to solve these types of problems, which are feasible according to the potentially high computational costs. In this paper, the REpetitive Simulation Trials After Reaching Thresholds (RESTART) method is employed, extending it to hybrid systems for the first time (to the authors’ knowledge). The estimation accuracy and precision of RESTART highly depend on the choice of the Importance Function (IF) indicating how close the system is to failure: in this respect, proper IFs are here originally proposed to improve the performance of RESTART for the analysis of hybrid systems. The resulting overall simulation approach is applied to estimate the probability of failure of the control system of a liquid hold-up tank and of a pump-valve subsystem subject to degradation induced by fatigue. The results are compared to those obtained by standard MC simulation and by RESTART with classical IFs available in the literature. The comparison shows the improvement in the performance obtained by our approach. - Highlights: • We consider the issue of estimating small failure probabilities in dynamic systems. • We employ the RESTART method to estimate the failure probabilities. • New Importance Functions (IFs) are introduced to increase the method performance. • We adopt two dynamic, hybrid, highly reliable systems as case studies. • A comparison with literature IFs proves the effectiveness of the new IFs.

  1. Efficient Estimation of Extreme Non-linear Roll Motions using the First-order Reliability Method (FORM)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2007-01-01

    In on-board decision support systems efficient procedures are needed for real-time estimation of the maximum ship responses to be expected within the next few hours, given on-line information on the sea state and user defined ranges of possible headings and speeds. For linear responses standard...... frequency domain methods can be applied. To non-linear responses like the roll motion, standard methods like direct time domain simulations are not feasible due to the required computational time. However, the statistical distribution of non-linear ship responses can be estimated very accurately using...... the first-order reliability method (FORM), well-known from structural reliability problems. To illustrate the proposed procedure, the roll motion is modelled by a simplified non-linear procedure taking into account non-linear hydrodynamic damping, time-varying restoring and wave excitation moments...

  2. A Reliable Method for Rhythm Analysis during Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Ayala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interruptions in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR compromise defibrillation success. However, CPR must be interrupted to analyze the rhythm because although current methods for rhythm analysis during CPR have high sensitivity for shockable rhythms, the specificity for nonshockable rhythms is still too low. This paper introduces a new approach to rhythm analysis during CPR that combines two strategies: a state-of-the-art CPR artifact suppression filter and a shock advice algorithm (SAA designed to optimally classify the filtered signal. Emphasis is on designing an algorithm with high specificity. The SAA includes a detector for low electrical activity rhythms to increase the specificity, and a shock/no-shock decision algorithm based on a support vector machine classifier using slope and frequency features. For this study, 1185 shockable and 6482 nonshockable 9-s segments corrupted by CPR artifacts were obtained from 247 patients suffering out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. The segments were split into a training and a test set. For the test set, the sensitivity and specificity for rhythm analysis during CPR were 91.0% and 96.6%, respectively. This new approach shows an important increase in specificity without compromising the sensitivity when compared to previous studies.

  3. Lagrangian numerical methods for ocean biogeochemical simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparella, Francesco; Popolizio, Marina

    2018-05-01

    We propose two closely-related Lagrangian numerical methods for the simulation of physical processes involving advection, reaction and diffusion. The methods are intended to be used in settings where the flow is nearly incompressible and the Péclet numbers are so high that resolving all the scales of motion is unfeasible. This is commonplace in ocean flows. Our methods consist in augmenting the method of characteristics, which is suitable for advection-reaction problems, with couplings among nearby particles, producing fluxes that mimic diffusion, or unresolved small-scale transport. The methods conserve mass, obey the maximum principle, and allow to tune the strength of the diffusive terms down to zero, while avoiding unwanted numerical dissipation effects.

  4. Simulation and the Monte Carlo method

    CERN Document Server

    Rubinstein, Reuven Y

    2016-01-01

    Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over more than a quarter of a century ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio...

  5. Simulating colloid hydrodynamics with lattice Boltzmann methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cates, M E; Stratford, K; Adhikari, R; Stansell, P; Desplat, J-C; Pagonabarraga, I; Wagner, A J

    2004-01-01

    We present a progress report on our work on lattice Boltzmann methods for colloidal suspensions. We focus on the treatment of colloidal particles in binary solvents and on the inclusion of thermal noise. For a benchmark problem of colloids sedimenting and becoming trapped by capillary forces at a horizontal interface between two fluids, we discuss the criteria for parameter selection, and address the inevitable compromise between computational resources and simulation accuracy

  6. An improved method for simulating radiographs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laguna, G.W.

    1986-01-01

    The parameters involved in generating actual radiographs and what can and cannot be modeled are examined in this report. Using the spectral distribution of the radiation source and the mass absorption curve for the material comprising the part to be modeled, the actual amount of radiation that would pass through the part and reach the film is determined. This method increases confidence in the results of the simulation and enables the modeling of parts made of multiple materials

  7. The reliability and validity of a soccer-specific nonmotorised treadmill simulation (intermittent soccer performance test).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldous, Jeffrey W F; Akubat, Ibrahim; Chrismas, Bryna C R; Watkins, Samuel L; Mauger, Alexis R; Midgley, Adrian W; Abt, Grant; Taylor, Lee

    2014-07-01

    This study investigated the reliability and validity of a novel nonmotorised treadmill (NMT)-based soccer simulation using a novel activity category called a "variable run" to quantify fatigue during high-speed running. Twelve male University soccer players completed 3 familiarization sessions and 1 peak speed assessment before completing the intermittent soccer performance test (iSPT) twice. The 2 iSPTs were separated by 6-10 days. The total distance, sprint distance, and high-speed running distance (HSD) were 8,968 ± 430 m, 980 ± 75 m and 2,122 ± 140 m, respectively. No significant difference (p > 0.05) was found between repeated trials of the iSPT for all physiological and performance variables. Reliability measures between iSPT1 and iSPT2 showed good agreement (coefficient of variation: 0.80). Furthermore, the variable run phase showed HSD significantly decreased (p ≤ 0.05) in the last 15 minutes (89 ± 6 m) compared with the first 15 minutes (85 ± 7 m), quantifying decrements in high-speed exercise compared with the previous literature. This study validates the iSPT as a NMT-based soccer simulation compared with the previous match-play data and is a reliable tool for assessing and monitoring physiological and performance variables in soccer players. The iSPT could be used in a number of ways including player rehabilitation, understanding the efficacy of nutritional interventions, and also the quantification of environmentally mediated decrements on soccer-specific performance.

  8. How simulation of failure risk can improve structural reliability - application to pressurized components and pipes

    OpenAIRE

    Cioclov, Dimitru Dragos

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic methods for failure risk assessment are introduced, with reference to load carrying structures, such as pressure vessels (PV) and components of pipes systems. The definition of the failure risk associated with structural integrity is made in the context of the general approach to structural reliability. Sources of risk are summarily outlined with emphasis on variability and uncertainties (V&U) which might be encountered in the analysis. To highlight the problem, in its practical...

  9. Spectral methods in numerical plasma simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutsias, E.A.; Hansen, F.R.; Huld, T.; Knorr, G.; Lynov, J.P.

    1989-01-01

    An introduction is given to the use of spectral methods in numerical plasma simulation. As examples of the use of spectral methods, solutions to the two-dimensional Euler equations in both a simple, doubly periodic region, and on an annulus will be shown. In the first case, the solution is expanded in a two-dimensional Fourier series, while a Chebyshev-Fourier expansion is employed in the second case. A new, efficient algorithm for the solution of Poisson's equation on an annulus is introduced. Problems connected to aliasing and to short wavelength noise generated by gradient steepening are discussed. (orig.)

  10. Electromagnetic simulation using the FDTD method

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, Dennis M

    2013-01-01

    A straightforward, easy-to-read introduction to the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method Finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) is one of the primary computational electrodynamics modeling techniques available. Since it is a time-domain method, FDTD solutions can cover a wide frequency range with a single simulation run and treat nonlinear material properties in a natural way. Written in a tutorial fashion, starting with the simplest programs and guiding the reader up from one-dimensional to the more complex, three-dimensional programs, this book provides a simple, yet comp

  11. Review of Reliability-Based Design Optimization Approach and Its Integration with Bayesian Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiangnan

    2018-03-01

    A lot of uncertain factors lie in practical engineering, such as external load environment, material property, geometrical shape, initial condition, boundary condition, etc. Reliability method measures the structural safety condition and determine the optimal design parameter combination based on the probabilistic theory. Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is the most commonly used approach to minimize the structural cost or other performance under uncertainty variables which combines the reliability theory and optimization. However, it cannot handle the various incomplete information. The Bayesian approach is utilized to incorporate this kind of incomplete information in its uncertainty quantification. In this paper, the RBDO approach and its integration with Bayesian method are introduced.

  12. Reliability Analysis Of Fire System On The Industry Facility By Use Fameca Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sony T, D.T.; Situmorang, Johnny; Ismu W, Puradwi; Demon H; Mulyanto, Dwijo; Kusmono, Slamet; Santa, Sigit Asmara

    2000-01-01

    FAMECA is one of the analysis method to determine system reliability on the industry facility. Analysis is done by some procedure that is identification of component function, determination of failure mode, severity level and effect of their failure. Reliability value is determined by three combinations that is severity level, component failure value and critical component. Reliability of analysis has been done for fire system on the industry by FAMECA method. Critical component which identified is pump, air release valve, check valve, manual test valve, isolation valve, control system etc

  13. Verification of practicability of quantitative reliability evaluation method (De-BDA) in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Kinshiro; Yukimachi, Takeo.

    1988-01-01

    A variety of methods have been applied to study of reliability analysis in which human factors are included in order to enhance the safety and availability of nuclear power plants. De-BDA (Detailed Block Diagram Analysis) is one of such mehtods developed with the objective of creating a more comprehensive and understandable tool for quantitative analysis of reliability associated with plant operations. The practicability of this method has been verified by applying it to reliability analysis of various phases of plant operation as well as evaluation of enhanced man-machine interface in the central control room. (author)

  14. A study in the reliability analysis method for nuclear power plant structures (I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Byung Hwan; Choi, Seong Cheol; Shin, Ho Sang; Yang, In Hwan; Kim, Yi Sung; Yu, Young; Kim, Se Hun [Seoul, Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-03-15

    Nuclear power plant structures may be exposed to aggressive environmental effects that may cause their strength and stiffness to decrease over their service life. Although the physics of these damage mechanisms are reasonably well understood and quantitative evaluation of their effects on time-dependent structural behavior is possible in some instances, such evaluations are generally very difficult and remain novel. The assessment of existing steel containment in nuclear power plants for continued service must provide quantitative evidence that they are able to withstand future extreme loads during a service period with an acceptable level of reliability. Rational methodologies to perform the reliability assessment can be developed from mechanistic models of structural deterioration, using time-dependent structural reliability analysis to take loading and strength uncertainties into account. The final goal of this study is to develop the analysis method for the reliability of containment structures. The cause and mechanism of corrosion is first clarified and the reliability assessment method has been established. By introducing the equivalent normal distribution, the procedure of reliability analysis which can determine the failure probabilities has been established. The influence of design variables to reliability and the relation between the reliability and service life will be continued second year research.

  15. A combined Importance Sampling and Kriging reliability method for small failure probabilities with time-demanding numerical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Echard, B.; Gayton, N.; Lemaire, M.; Relun, N.

    2013-01-01

    Applying reliability methods to a complex structure is often delicate for two main reasons. First, such a structure is fortunately designed with codified rules leading to a large safety margin which means that failure is a small probability event. Such a probability level is difficult to assess efficiently. Second, the structure mechanical behaviour is modelled numerically in an attempt to reproduce the real response and numerical model tends to be more and more time-demanding as its complexity is increased to improve accuracy and to consider particular mechanical behaviour. As a consequence, performing a large number of model computations cannot be considered in order to assess the failure probability. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes an original and easily implementable method called AK-IS for active learning and Kriging-based Importance Sampling. This new method is based on the AK-MCS algorithm previously published by Echard et al. [AK-MCS: an active learning reliability method combining Kriging and Monte Carlo simulation. Structural Safety 2011;33(2):145–54]. It associates the Kriging metamodel and its advantageous stochastic property with the Importance Sampling method to assess small failure probabilities. It enables the correction or validation of the FORM approximation with only a very few mechanical model computations. The efficiency of the method is, first, proved on two academic applications. It is then conducted for assessing the reliability of a challenging aerospace case study submitted to fatigue.

  16. Reliability of lower limb alignment measures using an established landmark-based method with a customized computer software program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sled, Elizabeth A.; Sheehy, Lisa M.; Felson, David T.; Costigan, Patrick A.; Lam, Miu; Cooke, T. Derek V.

    2010-01-01

    The objective of the study was to evaluate the reliability of frontal plane lower limb alignment measures using a landmark-based method by (1) comparing inter- and intra-reader reliability between measurements of alignment obtained manually with those using a computer program, and (2) determining inter- and intra-reader reliability of computer-assisted alignment measures from full-limb radiographs. An established method for measuring alignment was used, involving selection of 10 femoral and tibial bone landmarks. 1) To compare manual and computer methods, we used digital images and matching paper copies of five alignment patterns simulating healthy and malaligned limbs drawn using AutoCAD. Seven readers were trained in each system. Paper copies were measured manually and repeat measurements were performed daily for 3 days, followed by a similar routine with the digital images using the computer. 2) To examine the reliability of computer-assisted measures from full-limb radiographs, 100 images (200 limbs) were selected as a random sample from 1,500 full-limb digital radiographs which were part of the Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) Study. Three trained readers used the software program to measure alignment twice from the batch of 100 images, with two or more weeks between batch handling. Manual and computer measures of alignment showed excellent agreement (intraclass correlations [ICCs] 0.977 – 0.999 for computer analysis; 0.820 – 0.995 for manual measures). The computer program applied to full-limb radiographs produced alignment measurements with high inter- and intra-reader reliability (ICCs 0.839 – 0.998). In conclusion, alignment measures using a bone landmark-based approach and a computer program were highly reliable between multiple readers. PMID:19882339

  17. Hybrid numerical methods for multiscale simulations of subsurface biogeochemical processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheibe, T D; Tartakovsky, A M; Tartakovsky, D M; Redden, G D; Meakin, P

    2007-01-01

    Many subsurface flow and transport problems of importance today involve coupled non-linear flow, transport, and reaction in media exhibiting complex heterogeneity. In particular, problems involving biological mediation of reactions fall into this class of problems. Recent experimental research has revealed important details about the physical, chemical, and biological mechanisms involved in these processes at a variety of scales ranging from molecular to laboratory scales. However, it has not been practical or possible to translate detailed knowledge at small scales into reliable predictions of field-scale phenomena important for environmental management applications. A large assortment of numerical simulation tools have been developed, each with its own characteristic scale. Important examples include 1. molecular simulations (e.g., molecular dynamics); 2. simulation of microbial processes at the cell level (e.g., cellular automata or particle individual-based models); 3. pore-scale simulations (e.g., lattice-Boltzmann, pore network models, and discrete particle methods such as smoothed particle hydrodynamics); and 4. macroscopic continuum-scale simulations (e.g., traditional partial differential equations solved by finite difference or finite element methods). While many problems can be effectively addressed by one of these models at a single scale, some problems may require explicit integration of models across multiple scales. We are developing a hybrid multi-scale subsurface reactive transport modeling framework that integrates models with diverse representations of physics, chemistry and biology at different scales (sub-pore, pore and continuum). The modeling framework is being designed to take advantage of advanced computational technologies including parallel code components using the Common Component Architecture, parallel solvers, gridding, data and workflow management, and visualization. This paper describes the specific methods/codes being used at each

  18. A new modular procedure for industrial plant simulations and its reliable implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carcasci, C.; Marini, L.; Morini, B.; Porcelli, M.

    2016-01-01

    Modeling of industrial plants, and especially energy systems, has become increasingly important in industrial engineering and the need for accurate information on their behavior has grown along with the complexity of the industrial processes. Consequently, accurate and flexible simulation tools became essential yielding the development of modular codes. The aim of this work is to propose a new modular mathematical modeling for industrial plant simulation and its reliable numerical implementation. Regardless of their layout, a large class of plant's configurations is modeled by a library of elementary parts; then the physical properties, compositions of the working fluid, and plant's performance are estimated. Each plant component is represented by equations modeling fundamental mechanical and thermodynamic laws and giving rise to a system of algebraic nonlinear equations; remarkably, suitable restrictions on the variables of such nonlinear equations are imposed to guarantee solutions of physical meaning. The proposed numerical procedure combines an outer iterative process which refines plants characteristic parameters and an inner one which solves the arising nonlinear systems and consists of a trust-region solver for bound-constrained nonlinear equalities. The new procedure has been validated performing simulations against an existing modular tool on two compression train arrangements with both series and parallel-mounted compressors. - Highlights: • A numerical modular tool for industrial plants simulation is presented. • Mathematical modeling is thoroughly described. • Solution of the nonlinear system is performed by a trust-region Gauss–Newton solver. • A detailed explanation of the optimization solver named TRESNEI is provided. • Code flexibility and robustness are investigated through numerical simulations.

  19. Meshless Method for Simulation of Compressible Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabizadeh Shahrebabak, Ebrahim

    In the present age, rapid development in computing technology and high speed supercomputers has made numerical analysis and computational simulation more practical than ever before for large and complex cases. Numerical simulations have also become an essential means for analyzing the engineering problems and the cases that experimental analysis is not practical. There are so many sophisticated and accurate numerical schemes, which do these simulations. The finite difference method (FDM) has been used to solve differential equation systems for decades. Additional numerical methods based on finite volume and finite element techniques are widely used in solving problems with complex geometry. All of these methods are mesh-based techniques. Mesh generation is an essential preprocessing part to discretize the computation domain for these conventional methods. However, when dealing with mesh-based complex geometries these conventional mesh-based techniques can become troublesome, difficult to implement, and prone to inaccuracies. In this study, a more robust, yet simple numerical approach is used to simulate problems in an easier manner for even complex problem. The meshless, or meshfree, method is one such development that is becoming the focus of much research in the recent years. The biggest advantage of meshfree methods is to circumvent mesh generation. Many algorithms have now been developed to help make this method more popular and understandable for everyone. These algorithms have been employed over a wide range of problems in computational analysis with various levels of success. Since there is no connectivity between the nodes in this method, the challenge was considerable. The most fundamental issue is lack of conservation, which can be a source of unpredictable errors in the solution process. This problem is particularly evident in the presence of steep gradient regions and discontinuities, such as shocks that frequently occur in high speed compressible flow

  20. Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

    2018-03-01

    In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

  1. Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharouni-Nik, Morteza; Naeimi, Meysam; Ahadi, Sodayf; Alimoradi, Zahra

    2014-06-01

    In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute to stability of the tunnel structure are recognized owing to identify various aspects of reliability and sustainability in the system. The selection of efficient support methods for rock tunneling is a key factor in order to reduce the number of problems during construction and maintain the project cost and time within the limited budget and planned schedule. This paper introduces a smart approach by which decision-makers will be able to find the overall reliability of tunnel support system before selecting the final scheme of the lining system. Due to this research focus, engineering reliability which is a branch of statistics and probability is being appropriately applied to the field and much effort has been made to use it in tunneling while investigating the reliability of the lining support system for the tunnel structure. Therefore, reliability analysis for evaluating the tunnel support performance is the main idea used in this research. Decomposition approaches are used for producing system block diagram and determining the failure probability of the whole system. Effectiveness of the proposed reliability model of tunnel lining together with the recommended approaches is examined using several case studies and the final value of reliability obtained for different designing scenarios. Considering the idea of linear correlation between safety factors and reliability parameters, the values of isolated reliabilities determined for different structural components of tunnel support system. In order to determine individual safety factors, finite element modeling is employed for different structural subsystems and the results of numerical analyses are obtained in

  2. Self-Tuning Method for Increased Obstacle Detection Reliability Based on Internet of Things LiDAR Sensor Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castaño, Fernando; Beruvides, Gerardo; Villalonga, Alberto; Haber, Rodolfo E

    2018-05-10

    On-chip LiDAR sensors for vehicle collision avoidance are a rapidly expanding area of research and development. The assessment of reliable obstacle detection using data collected by LiDAR sensors has become a key issue that the scientific community is actively exploring. The design of a self-tuning methodology and its implementation are presented in this paper, to maximize the reliability of LiDAR sensors network for obstacle detection in the 'Internet of Things' (IoT) mobility scenarios. The Webots Automobile 3D simulation tool for emulating sensor interaction in complex driving environments is selected in order to achieve that objective. Furthermore, a model-based framework is defined that employs a point-cloud clustering technique, and an error-based prediction model library that is composed of a multilayer perceptron neural network, and k-nearest neighbors and linear regression models. Finally, a reinforcement learning technique, specifically a Q-learning method, is implemented to determine the number of LiDAR sensors that are required to increase sensor reliability for obstacle localization tasks. In addition, a IoT driving assistance user scenario, connecting a five LiDAR sensor network is designed and implemented to validate the accuracy of the computational intelligence-based framework. The results demonstrated that the self-tuning method is an appropriate strategy to increase the reliability of the sensor network while minimizing detection thresholds.

  3. A new method for simulating human emotions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    How to make machines express emotions would be instrumental in establishing a completely new paradigm for man ma-chine interaction. A new method for simulating and assessing artificial psychology has been developed for the research of the emo-tion robot. The human psychology activity is regarded as a Markov process. An emotion space and psychology model is constructedbased on Markov process. The conception of emotion entropy is presented to assess the artificial emotion complexity. The simulatingresults play up to human psychology activity. This model can also be applied to consumer-friendly human-computer interfaces, andinteractive video etc.

  4. Comparison of validation methods for forming simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schug, Alexander; Kapphan, Gabriel; Bardl, Georg; Hinterhölzl, Roland; Drechsler, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    The forming simulation of fibre reinforced thermoplastics could reduce the development time and improve the forming results. But to take advantage of the full potential of the simulations it has to be ensured that the predictions for material behaviour are correct. For that reason, a thorough validation of the material model has to be conducted after characterising the material. Relevant aspects for the validation of the simulation are for example the outer contour, the occurrence of defects and the fibre paths. To measure these features various methods are available. Most relevant and also most difficult to measure are the emerging fibre orientations. For that reason, the focus of this study was on measuring this feature. The aim was to give an overview of the properties of different measuring systems and select the most promising systems for a comparison survey. Selected were an optical, an eddy current and a computer-assisted tomography system with the focus on measuring the fibre orientations. Different formed 3D parts made of unidirectional glass fibre and carbon fibre reinforced thermoplastics were measured. Advantages and disadvantages of the tested systems were revealed. Optical measurement systems are easy to use, but are limited to the surface plies. With an eddy current system also lower plies can be measured, but it is only suitable for carbon fibres. Using a computer-assisted tomography system all plies can be measured, but the system is limited to small parts and challenging to evaluate.

  5. A limited assessment of the ASEP human reliability analysis procedure using simulator examination results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gore, B.R.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Mitts, T.M.; Nicholson, W.L.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. In particular, the, ASEP post-accident, post-diagnosis, nominal HRA procedure is assessed within the context of an individual's performance of critical tasks on the simulator portion of requalification examinations administered to nuclear power plant operators. An assessment of the degree to which operator perforn:Lance during simulator examinations is an accurate reflection of operator performance during actual accident conditions was outside the scope of work for this project; therefore, no direct inference can be made from this report about such performance. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle. A total of 4071 critical tasks were identified, of which 45 had been failed. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. ASEP analyses were performed for a sample of 162 critical tasks selected randomly from the 4071, and the results were used to characterize the entire population. ASEP analyses were also performed for all of the 45 failed critical tasks. Two tests were performed to assess the bias of the ASEP HEPs compared with the data from the requalification examinations. The first compared the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and it found a statistically significant factor of two bias on the average

  6. Reliability analysis for thermal cutting method based non-explosive separation device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jun Woo; Hwang, Kuk Ha; Kim, Byung Kyu

    2016-01-01

    In order to increase the reliability of a separation device for a small satellite, a new non-explosive separation device is invented. This device is activated using a thermal cutting method with a Ni-Cr wire. A reliability analysis is carried out for the proposed non-explosive separation device by applying the Fault tree analysis (FTA) method. In the FTA results for the separation device, only ten single-point failure modes are found. The reliability modeling and analysis for the device are performed considering failure of the power supply, the Ni-Cr wire burns failure and unwinds, the holder separation failure, the balls separation failure, and the pin release failure. Ultimately, the reliability of the proposed device is calculated as 0.999989 with five Ni-Cr wire coils

  7. Reliability analysis for thermal cutting method based non-explosive separation device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Jun Woo; Hwang, Kuk Ha; Kim, Byung Kyu [Korea Aerospace University, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    In order to increase the reliability of a separation device for a small satellite, a new non-explosive separation device is invented. This device is activated using a thermal cutting method with a Ni-Cr wire. A reliability analysis is carried out for the proposed non-explosive separation device by applying the Fault tree analysis (FTA) method. In the FTA results for the separation device, only ten single-point failure modes are found. The reliability modeling and analysis for the device are performed considering failure of the power supply, the Ni-Cr wire burns failure and unwinds, the holder separation failure, the balls separation failure, and the pin release failure. Ultimately, the reliability of the proposed device is calculated as 0.999989 with five Ni-Cr wire coils.

  8. Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of normal and touch mode MEMS capacitive pressure sensor: modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jindal, Sumit Kumar; Mahajan, Ankush; Raghuwanshi, Sanjeev Kumar

    2017-10-01

    An analytical model and numerical simulation for the performance of MEMS capacitive pressure sensors in both normal and touch modes is required for expected behavior of the sensor prior to their fabrication. Obtaining such information should be based on a complete analysis of performance parameters such as deflection of diaphragm, change of capacitance when the diaphragm deflects, and sensitivity of the sensor. In the literature, limited work has been carried out on the above-stated issue; moreover, due to approximation factors of polynomials, a tolerance error cannot be overseen. Reliable before-fabrication forecasting requires exact mathematical calculation of the parameters involved. A second-order polynomial equation is calculated mathematically for key performance parameters of both modes. This eliminates the approximation factor, and an exact result can be studied, maintaining high accuracy. The elimination of approximation factors and an approach of exact results are based on a new design parameter (δ) that we propose. The design parameter gives an initial hint to the designers on how the sensor will behave once it is fabricated. The complete work is aided by extensive mathematical detailing of all the parameters involved. Next, we verified our claims using MATLAB® simulation. Since MATLAB® effectively provides the simulation theory for the design approach, more complicated finite element method is not used.

  9. An attempt to use FMEA method for an approximate reliability assessment of machinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przystupa Krzysztof

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a modified FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis method to assess reliability of the components that make up a wrench type 2145: MAX Impactol TM Driver Ingersoll Rand Company. This case concerns the analysis of reliability in conditions, when full service data is not known. The aim of the study is to determine the weakest element in the design of the tool.

  10. A consistent modelling methodology for secondary settling tanks: a reliable numerical method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bürger, Raimund; Diehl, Stefan; Farås, Sebastian; Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena

    2013-01-01

    The consistent modelling methodology for secondary settling tanks (SSTs) leads to a partial differential equation (PDE) of nonlinear convection-diffusion type as a one-dimensional model for the solids concentration as a function of depth and time. This PDE includes a flux that depends discontinuously on spatial position modelling hindered settling and bulk flows, a singular source term describing the feed mechanism, a degenerating term accounting for sediment compressibility, and a dispersion term for turbulence. In addition, the solution itself is discontinuous. A consistent, reliable and robust numerical method that properly handles these difficulties is presented. Many constitutive relations for hindered settling, compression and dispersion can be used within the model, allowing the user to switch on and off effects of interest depending on the modelling goal as well as investigate the suitability of certain constitutive expressions. Simulations show the effect of the dispersion term on effluent suspended solids and total sludge mass in the SST. The focus is on correct implementation whereas calibration and validation are not pursued.

  11. The reliability of a modified Kalamazoo Consensus Statement Checklist for assessing the communication skills of multidisciplinary clinicians in the simulated environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Eleanor B; Calhoun, Aaron W; Rider, Elizabeth A

    2014-09-01

    With increased recognition of the importance of sound communication skills and communication skills education, reliable assessment tools are essential. This study reports on the psychometric properties of an assessment tool based on the Kalamazoo Consensus Statement Essential Elements Communication Checklist. The Gap-Kalamazoo Communication Skills Assessment Form (GKCSAF), a modified version of an existing communication skills assessment tool, the Kalamazoo Essential Elements Communication Checklist-Adapted, was used to assess learners in a multidisciplinary, simulation-based communication skills educational program using multiple raters. 118 simulated conversations were available for analysis. Internal consistency and inter-rater reliability were determined by calculating a Cronbach's alpha score and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC), respectively. The GKCSAF demonstrated high internal consistency with a Cronbach's alpha score of 0.844 (faculty raters) and 0.880 (peer observer raters), and high inter-rater reliability with an ICC of 0.830 (faculty raters) and 0.89 (peer observer raters). The Gap-Kalamazoo Communication Skills Assessment Form is a reliable method of assessing the communication skills of multidisciplinary learners using multi-rater methods within the learning environment. The Gap-Kalamazoo Communication Skills Assessment Form can be used by educational programs that wish to implement a reliable assessment and feedback system for a variety of learners. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Evaluating the reliability of multi-body mechanisms: A method considering the uncertainties of dynamic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jianing; Yan, Shaoze; Zuo, Ming J.

    2016-01-01

    Mechanism reliability is defined as the ability of a certain mechanism to maintain output accuracy under specified conditions. Mechanism reliability is generally assessed by the classical direct probability method (DPM) derived from the first order second moment (FOSM) method. The DPM relies strongly on the analytical form of the dynamic solution so it is not applicable to multi-body mechanisms that have only numerical solutions. In this paper, an indirect probability model (IPM) is proposed for mechanism reliability evaluation of multi-body mechanisms. IPM combines the dynamic equation, degradation function and Kaplan–Meier estimator to evaluate mechanism reliability comprehensively. Furthermore, to reduce the amount of computation in practical applications, the IPM is simplified into the indirect probability step model (IPSM). A case study of a crank–slider mechanism with clearance is investigated. Results show that relative errors between the theoretical and experimental results of mechanism reliability are less than 5%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Highlights: • An indirect probability model (IPM) is proposed for mechanism reliability evaluation. • The dynamic equation, degradation function and Kaplan–Meier estimator are used. • Then the simplified form of indirect probability model is proposed. • The experimental results agree well with the predicted results.

  13. Method for assessing software reliability of the document management system using the RFID technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiedrowicz Maciej

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The deliberations presented in this study refer to the method for assessing software reliability of the docu-ment management system, using the RFID technology. A method for determining the reliability structure of the dis-cussed software, understood as the index vector for assessing reliability of its components, was proposed. The model of the analyzed software is the control transfer graph, in which the probability of activating individual components during the system's operation results from the so-called operational profile, which characterizes the actual working environment. The reliability structure is established as a result of the solution of a specific mathematical software task. The knowledge of the reliability structure of the software makes it possible to properly plan the time and finan-cial expenses necessary to build the software, which would meet the reliability requirements. The application of the presented method is illustrated by the number example, corresponding to the software reality of the RFID document management system.

  14. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Bent; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl; Andersen, Pernille

    2009-01-01

    : The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability...... comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0.79 and 0.74 are obtained using our and the compared method, respectively. This tendency is true for any selected subset....

  15. A method to evaluate performance reliability of individual subjects in laboratory research applied to work settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-10-01

    This report presents a method that may be used to evaluate the reliability of performance of individual subjects, particularly in applied laboratory research. The method is based on analysis of variance of a tasks-by-subjects data matrix, with all sc...

  16. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Morten

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score. Results An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. Conclusion The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0

  17. The Evaluation Method of the Lightning Strike on Transmission Lines Aiming at Power Grid Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Jianfeng; Wu, Jianwei; Huang, Liandong; Geng, Yinan; Yu, zhanqing

    2018-01-01

    Lightning protection of power system focuses on reducing the flashover rate, only distinguishing by the voltage level, without considering the functional differences between the transmission lines, and being lack of analysis the effect on the reliability of power grid. This will lead lightning protection design of general transmission lines is surplus but insufficient for key lines. In order to solve this problem, the analysis method of lightning striking on transmission lines for power grid reliability is given. Full wave process theory is used to analyze the lightning back striking; the leader propagation model is used to describe the process of shielding failure of transmission lines. The index of power grid reliability is introduced and the effect of transmission line fault on the reliability of power system is discussed in detail.

  18. An Intelligent Method for Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Response Surface

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    桂劲松; 刘红; 康海贵

    2004-01-01

    As water depth increases, the structural safety and reliability of a system become more and more important and challenging. Therefore, the structural reliability method must be applied in ocean engineering design such as offshore platform design. If the performance function is known in structural reliability analysis, the first-order second-moment method is often used. If the performance function could not be definitely expressed, the response surface method is always used because it has a very clear train of thought and simple programming. However, the traditional response surface method fits the response surface of quadratic polynomials where the problem of accuracy could not be solved, because the true limit state surface can be fitted well only in the area near the checking point. In this paper, an intelligent computing method based on the whole response surface is proposed, which can be used for the situation where the performance function could not be definitely expressed in structural reliability analysis. In this method, a response surface of the fuzzy neural network for the whole area should be constructed first, and then the structural reliability can be calculated by the genetic algorithm. In the proposed method, all the sample points for the training network come from the whole area, so the true limit state surface in the whole area can be fitted. Through calculational examples and comparative analysis, it can be known that the proposed method is much better than the traditional response surface method of quadratic polynomials, because, the amount of calculation of finite element analysis is largely reduced, the accuracy of calculation is improved,and the true limit state surface can be fitted very well in the whole area. So, the method proposed in this paper is suitable for engineering application.

  19. A fast and reliable method for simultaneous waveform, amplitude and latency estimation of single-trial EEG/MEG data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wouter D Weeda

    Full Text Available The amplitude and latency of single-trial EEG/MEG signals may provide valuable information concerning human brain functioning. In this article we propose a new method to reliably estimate single-trial amplitude and latency of EEG/MEG signals. The advantages of the method are fourfold. First, no a-priori specified template function is required. Second, the method allows for multiple signals that may vary independently in amplitude and/or latency. Third, the method is less sensitive to noise as it models data with a parsimonious set of basis functions. Finally, the method is very fast since it is based on an iterative linear least squares algorithm. A simulation study shows that the method yields reliable estimates under different levels of latency variation and signal-to-noise ratioÕs. Furthermore, it shows that the existence of multiple signals can be correctly determined. An application to empirical data from a choice reaction time study indicates that the method describes these data accurately.

  20. A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Lizhi; Pan, Rong; Li, Xiaoyang; Jiang, Tongmin

    2013-01-01

    Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is a common approach in reliability prediction, especially for products with high reliability. However, oftentimes the laboratory condition of ADT is different from the field condition; thus, to predict field failure, one need to calibrate the prediction made by using ADT data. In this paper a Bayesian evaluation method is proposed to integrate the ADT data from laboratory with the failure data from field. Calibration factors are introduced to calibrate the difference between the lab and the field conditions so as to predict a product's actual field reliability more accurately. The information fusion and statistical inference procedure are carried out through a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is demonstrated by two examples and the sensitivity analysis to prior distribution assumption

  1. Study on reliability analysis based on multilevel flow models and fault tree method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Qiang; Yang Ming

    2014-01-01

    Multilevel flow models (MFM) and fault tree method describe the system knowledge in different forms, so the two methods express an equivalent logic of the system reliability under the same boundary conditions and assumptions. Based on this and combined with the characteristics of MFM, a method mapping MFM to fault tree was put forward, thus providing a way to establish fault tree rapidly and realizing qualitative reliability analysis based on MFM. Taking the safety injection system of pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant as an example, its MFM was established and its reliability was analyzed qualitatively. The analysis result shows that the logic of mapping MFM to fault tree is correct. The MFM is easily understood, created and modified. Compared with the traditional fault tree analysis, the workload is greatly reduced and the modeling time is saved. (authors)

  2. Rare event simulation using Monte Carlo methods

    CERN Document Server

    Rubino, Gerardo

    2009-01-01

    In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. ...

  3. Computational Simulations and the Scientific Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleb, Bil; Wood, Bill

    2005-01-01

    As scientific simulation software becomes more complicated, the scientific-software implementor's need for component tests from new model developers becomes more crucial. The community's ability to follow the basic premise of the Scientific Method requires independently repeatable experiments, and model innovators are in the best position to create these test fixtures. Scientific software developers also need to quickly judge the value of the new model, i.e., its cost-to-benefit ratio in terms of gains provided by the new model and implementation risks such as cost, time, and quality. This paper asks two questions. The first is whether other scientific software developers would find published component tests useful, and the second is whether model innovators think publishing test fixtures is a feasible approach.

  4. Structural system reliability calculation using a probabilistic fault tree analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torng, T. Y.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, H. R.

    1992-01-01

    The development of a new probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) method for calculating structural system reliability is summarized. The proposed PFTA procedure includes: developing a fault tree to represent the complex structural system, constructing an approximation function for each bottom event, determining a dominant sampling sequence for all bottom events, and calculating the system reliability using an adaptive importance sampling method. PFTA is suitable for complicated structural problems that require computer-intensive computer calculations. A computer program has been developed to implement the PFTA.

  5. Reliability and Validity of the Footprint Assessment Method Using Photoshop CS5 Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Vilahú, Lourdes; Massó-Ortigosa, Núria; Costa-Tutusaus, Lluís; Guerra-Balic, Myriam

    2015-05-01

    Several sophisticated methods of footprint analysis currently exist. However, it is sometimes useful to apply standard measurement methods of recognized evidence with an easy and quick application. We sought to assess the reliability and validity of a new method of footprint assessment in a healthy population using Photoshop CS5 software (Adobe Systems Inc, San Jose, California). Forty-two footprints, corresponding to 21 healthy individuals (11 men with a mean ± SD age of 20.45 ± 2.16 years and 10 women with a mean ± SD age of 20.00 ± 1.70 years) were analyzed. Footprints were recorded in static bipedal standing position using optical podography and digital photography. Three trials for each participant were performed. The Hernández-Corvo, Chippaux-Smirak, and Staheli indices and the Clarke angle were calculated by manual method and by computerized method using Photoshop CS5 software. Test-retest was used to determine reliability. Validity was obtained by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The reliability test for all of the indices showed high values (ICC, 0.98-0.99). Moreover, the validity test clearly showed no difference between techniques (ICC, 0.99-1). The reliability and validity of a method to measure, assess, and record the podometric indices using Photoshop CS5 software has been demonstrated. This provides a quick and accurate tool useful for the digital recording of morphostatic foot study parameters and their control.

  6. A human reliability based usability evaluation method for safety-critical software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, R. L.; Tran, T. Q.; Gertman, D. I.; Ragsdale, A.

    2006-01-01

    Boring and Gertman (2005) introduced a novel method that augments heuristic usability evaluation methods with that of the human reliability analysis method of SPAR-H. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to individual heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). Although this UEP is not a literal probability of error, it nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. This method allows one to seamlessly prioritize and identify usability issues (i.e., a higher UEP requires more immediate fixes). However, the original version of this method required the usability evaluator to assign priority weights to the final UEP, thus allowing the priority of a usability issue to differ among usability evaluators. The purpose of this paper is to explore an alternative approach to standardize the priority weighting of the UEP in an effort to improve the method's reliability. (authors)

  7. An automated method for estimating reliability of grid systems using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doguc, Ozge; Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose

    2012-01-01

    Grid computing has become relevant due to its applications to large-scale resource sharing, wide-area information transfer, and multi-institutional collaborating. In general, in grid computing a service requests the use of a set of resources, available in a grid, to complete certain tasks. Although analysis tools and techniques for these types of systems have been studied, grid reliability analysis is generally computation-intensive to obtain due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, conventional reliability models have some common assumptions that cannot be applied to the grid systems. Therefore, new analytical methods are needed for effective and accurate assessment of grid reliability. This study presents a new method for estimating grid service reliability, which does not require prior knowledge about the grid system structure unlike the previous studies. Moreover, the proposed method does not rely on any assumptions about the link and node failure rates. This approach is based on a data-mining algorithm, the K2, to discover the grid system structure from raw historical system data, that allows to find minimum resource spanning trees (MRST) within the grid then, uses Bayesian networks (BN) to model the MRST and estimate grid service reliability.

  8. Inter- and intra- observer reliability of risk assessment of repetitive work without an explicit method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, Kristina; Palm, Peter; Nyman, Teresia; Forsman, Mikael

    2017-07-01

    A common way to conduct practical risk assessments is to observe a job and report the observed long term risks for musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-observer reliability of ergonomists' risk assessments without the support of an explicit risk assessment method. Twenty-one experienced ergonomists assessed the risk level (low, moderate, high risk) of eight upper body regions, as well as the global risk of 10 video recorded work tasks. Intra-observer reliability was assessed by having nine of the ergonomists repeat the procedure at least three weeks after the first assessment. The ergonomists made their risk assessment based on his/her experience and knowledge. The statistical parameters of reliability included agreement in %, kappa, linearly weighted kappa, intraclass correlation and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The average inter-observer agreement of the global risk was 53% and the corresponding weighted kappa (K w ) was 0.32, indicating fair reliability. The intra-observer agreement was 61% and 0.41 (K w ). This study indicates that risk assessments of the upper body, without the use of an explicit observational method, have non-acceptable reliability. It is therefore recommended to use systematic risk assessment methods to a higher degree. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Simulation-based Assessment to Reliably Identify Key Resident Performance Attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Richard H; Muret-Wagstaff, Sharon L; Boulet, John R; Cooper, Jeffrey B; Petrusa, Emil R; Baker, Keith H; Davidyuk, Galina; Dearden, Jennifer L; Feinstein, David M; Jones, Stephanie B; Kimball, William R; Mitchell, John D; Nadelberg, Robert L; Wiser, Sarah H; Albrecht, Meredith A; Anastasi, Amanda K; Bose, Ruma R; Chang, Laura Y; Culley, Deborah J; Fisher, Lauren J; Grover, Meera; Klainer, Suzanne B; Kveraga, Rikante; Martel, Jeffrey P; McKenna, Shannon S; Minehart, Rebecca D; Mitchell, John D; Mountjoy, Jeremi R; Pawlowski, John B; Pilon, Robert N; Shook, Douglas C; Silver, David A; Warfield, Carol A; Zaleski, Katherine L

    2018-04-01

    Obtaining reliable and valid information on resident performance is critical to patient safety and training program improvement. The goals were to characterize important anesthesia resident performance gaps that are not typically evaluated, and to further validate scores from a multiscenario simulation-based assessment. Seven high-fidelity scenarios reflecting core anesthesiology skills were administered to 51 first-year residents (CA-1s) and 16 third-year residents (CA-3s) from three residency programs. Twenty trained attending anesthesiologists rated resident performances using a seven-point behaviorally anchored rating scale for five domains: (1) formulate a clear plan, (2) modify the plan under changing conditions, (3) communicate effectively, (4) identify performance improvement opportunities, and (5) recognize limits. A second rater assessed 10% of encounters. Scores and variances for each domain, each scenario, and the total were compared. Low domain ratings (1, 2) were examined in detail. Interrater agreement was 0.76; reliability of the seven-scenario assessment was r = 0.70. CA-3s had a significantly higher average total score (4.9 ± 1.1 vs. 4.6 ± 1.1, P = 0.01, effect size = 0.33). CA-3s significantly outscored CA-1s for five of seven scenarios and domains 1, 2, and 3. CA-1s had a significantly higher proportion of worrisome ratings than CA-3s (chi-square = 24.1, P < 0.01, effect size = 1.50). Ninety-eight percent of residents rated the simulations more educational than an average day in the operating room. Sensitivity of the assessment to CA-1 versus CA-3 performance differences for most scenarios and domains supports validity. No differences, by experience level, were detected for two domains associated with reflective practice. Smaller score variances for CA-3s likely reflect a training effect; however, worrisome performance scores for both CA-1s and CA-3s suggest room for improvement.

  10. A Fast Optimization Method for Reliability and Performance of Cloud Services Composition Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available At present the cloud computing is one of the newest trends of distributed computation, which is propelling another important revolution of software industry. The cloud services composition is one of the key techniques in software development. The optimization for reliability and performance of cloud services composition application, which is a typical stochastic optimization problem, is confronted with severe challenges due to its randomness and long transaction, as well as the characteristics of the cloud computing resources such as openness and dynamic. The traditional reliability and performance optimization techniques, for example, Markov model and state space analysis and so forth, have some defects such as being too time consuming and easy to cause state space explosion and unsatisfied the assumptions of component execution independence. To overcome these defects, we propose a fast optimization method for reliability and performance of cloud services composition application based on universal generating function and genetic algorithm in this paper. At first, a reliability and performance model for cloud service composition application based on the multiple state system theory is presented. Then the reliability and performance definition based on universal generating function is proposed. Based on this, a fast reliability and performance optimization algorithm is presented. In the end, the illustrative examples are given.

  11. An Investment Level Decision Method to Secure Long-term Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamba, Satoshi; Yabe, Kuniaki; Seki, Tomomichi; Shibaya, Tetsuji

    The slowdown in power demand increase and facility replacement causes the aging and lower reliability in power facility. And the aging is followed by the rapid increase of repair and replacement when many facilities reach their lifetime in future. This paper describes a method to estimate the repair and replacement costs in future by applying the life-cycle cost model and renewal theory to the historical data. This paper also describes a method to decide the optimum investment plan, which replaces facilities in the order of cost-effectiveness by setting replacement priority formula, and the minimum investment level to keep the reliability. Estimation examples applied to substation facilities show that the reasonable and leveled future cash-out can keep the reliability by lowering the percentage of replacements caused by fatal failures.

  12. Comparison Of Simulation Results When Using Two Different Methods For Mold Creation In Moldflow Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaushikbhai C. Parmar

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Simulation gives different results when using different methods for the same simulation. Autodesk Moldflow Simulation software provide two different facilities for creating mold for the simulation of injection molding process. Mold can be created inside the Moldflow or it can be imported as CAD file. The aim of this paper is to study the difference in the simulation results like mold temperature part temperature deflection in different direction time for the simulation and coolant temperature for this two different methods.

  13. A Comparison of Three Methods for the Analysis of Skin Flap Viability: Reliability and Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tim, Carla Roberta; Martignago, Cintia Cristina Santi; da Silva, Viviane Ribeiro; Dos Santos, Estefany Camila Bonfim; Vieira, Fabiana Nascimento; Parizotto, Nivaldo Antonio; Liebano, Richard Eloin

    2018-05-01

    Objective: Technological advances have provided new alternatives to the analysis of skin flap viability in animal models; however, the interrater validity and reliability of these techniques have yet to be analyzed. The present study aimed to evaluate the interrater validity and reliability of three different methods: weight of paper template (WPT), paper template area (PTA), and photographic analysis. Approach: Sixteen male Wistar rats had their cranially based dorsal skin flap elevated. On the seventh postoperative day, the viable tissue area and the necrotic area of the skin flap were recorded using the paper template method and photo image. The evaluation of the percentage of viable tissue was performed using three methods, simultaneously and independently by two raters. The analysis of interrater reliability and viability was performed using the intraclass correlation coefficient and Bland Altman Plot Analysis was used to visualize the presence or absence of systematic bias in the evaluations of data validity. Results: The results showed that interrater reliability for WPT, measurement of PTA, and photographic analysis were 0.995, 0.990, and 0.982, respectively. For data validity, a correlation >0.90 was observed for all comparisons made between the three methods. In addition, Bland Altman Plot Analysis showed agreement between the comparisons of the methods and the presence of systematic bias was not observed. Innovation: Digital methods are an excellent choice for assessing skin flap viability; moreover, they make data use and storage easier. Conclusion: Independently from the method used, the interrater reliability and validity proved to be excellent for the analysis of skin flaps' viability.

  14. Analyzing the behavior and reliability of voting systems comprising tri-state units using enumerated simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yacoub, Sherif

    2003-01-01

    Voting is a common technique used in combining results from peer experts, for multiple purposes, and in a variety of domains. In distributed decision making systems, voting mechanisms are used to obtain a decision by incorporating the opinion of multiple units. Voting systems have many applications in fault tolerant systems, mutual exclusion in distributed systems, and replicated databases. We are specifically interested in voting systems as used in decision-making applications. In this paper, we describe a synthetic experimental procedure to study the behavior of a variety of voting system configurations using a simulator to: analyze the state of each expert, apply a voting mechanism, and analyze the voting results. We introduce an enumerated-simulation approach and compare it to existing mathematical approaches. The paper studies the following behaviors of a voting system: (1) the reliability of the voting system, R; (2) the probability of reaching a consensus, P c ; (3) certainty index, T; and (4) the confidence index, C. The configuration parameters controlling the analysis are: (1) the number of participating experts, N, (2) the possible output states of an expert, and (3) the probability distribution of each expert states. We illustrate the application of this approach to a voting system that consists of N units, each has three states: correct (success), wrong (failed), and abstain (did not produce an output). The final output of the decision-making (voting) system is correct if a consensus is reached on a correct unit output, abstain if all units abstain from voting, and wrong otherwise. We will show that using the proposed approach, we can easily conduct studies to unleash several behaviors of a decision-making system with tri-state experts

  15. A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdan, H.A.; Ghajar, R.F.; Chedid, R.B.

    2012-01-01

    The Lebanese Electric Power System (LEPS) has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill-operating infrastructure, and suffering from effects of political instability, huge debts, unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation. The upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical, financial, administrative and governance aspects of the system. In this paper, an energy policy for Lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling. The paper utilizes the Load Modification Technique (LMT) as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production, overall cost, technical/commercial losses and reliability. Scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business-as-usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector. Conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for Lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems. - Highlights: ► Evaluation methodology based on a probabilistic simulation tool is proposed. ► A business-as-usual scenario for a given study period of the LEPS was modeled. ► Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of the energy policy are modeled. ► Policy simulated and compared with business-as-usual scenarios of the LEPS. ► Results reflect usefulness of proposed methodology and the adopted energy policy.

  16. Proceeding of 35th domestic symposium on applications of structural reliability and risk assessment methods to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    As the 35th domestic symposium of Atomic Energy Research Committee, the Japan Welding Engineering Society, the symposium was held titled as Applications of structural reliability/risk assessment methods to nuclear energy'. Six speakers gave lectures titled as 'Structural reliability and risk assessment methods', 'Risk-informed regulation of US nuclear energy and role of probabilistic risk assessment', 'Reliability and risk assessment methods in chemical plants', 'Practical structural design methods based on reliability in architectural and civil areas', 'Maintenance activities based on reliability in thermal power plants' and 'LWR maintenance strategies based on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics'. (T. Tanaka)

  17. Extended block diagram method for a multi-state system reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lisnianski, Anatoly

    2007-01-01

    The presented method extends the classical reliability block diagram method to a repairable multi-state system. It is very suitable for engineering applications since the procedure is well formalized and based on the natural decomposition of the entire multi-state system (the system is represented as a collection of its elements). Until now, the classical block diagram method did not provide the reliability assessment for the repairable multi-state system. The straightforward stochastic process methods are very difficult for engineering application in such cases due to the 'dimension damnation'-huge number of system states. The suggested method is based on the combined random processes and the universal generating function technique and drastically reduces the number of states in the multi-state model

  18. [Knowledge of university students in Szeged, Hungary about reliable contraceptive methods and sexually transmitted diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devosa, Iván; Kozinszky, Zoltán; Vanya, Melinda; Szili, Károly; Fáyné Dombi, Alice; Barabás, Katalin

    2016-04-03

    Promiscuity and lack of use of reliable contraceptive methods increase the probability of sexually transmitted diseases and the risk of unwanted pregnancies, which are quite common among university students. The aim of the study was to assess the knowledge of university students about reliable contraceptive methods and sexually transmitted diseases, and to assess the effectiveness of the sexual health education in secondary schools, with specific focus on the education held by peers. An anonymous, self-administered questionnaire survey was carried out in a randomized sample of students at the University of Szeged (n = 472, 298 women and 174 men, average age 21 years) between 2009 and 2011. 62.1% of the respondents declared that reproductive health education lessons in high schools held by peers were reliable and authentic source of information, 12.3% considered as a less reliable source, and 25.6% defined the school health education as irrelevant source. Among those, who considered the health education held by peers as a reliable source, there were significantly more females (69.3% vs. 46.6%, p = 0.001), significantly fewer lived in cities (83.6% vs. 94.8%, p = 0.025), and significantly more responders knew that Candida infection can be transmitted through sexual intercourse (79.5% versus 63.9%, p = 0.02) as compared to those who did not consider health education held by peers as a reliable source. The majority of respondents obtained knowledge about sexual issues from the mass media. Young people who considered health educating programs reliable were significantly better informed about Candida disease.

  19. Reliability of Semiautomated Computational Methods for Estimating Tibiofemoral Contact Stress in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald D. Anderson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent findings suggest that contact stress is a potent predictor of subsequent symptomatic osteoarthritis development in the knee. However, much larger numbers of knees (likely on the order of hundreds, if not thousands need to be reliably analyzed to achieve the statistical power necessary to clarify this relationship. This study assessed the reliability of new semiautomated computational methods for estimating contact stress in knees from large population-based cohorts. Ten knees of subjects from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study were included. Bone surfaces were manually segmented from sequential 1.0 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging slices by three individuals on two nonconsecutive days. Four individuals then registered the resulting bone surfaces to corresponding bone edges on weight-bearing radiographs, using a semi-automated algorithm. Discrete element analysis methods were used to estimate contact stress distributions for each knee. Segmentation and registration reliabilities (day-to-day and interrater for peak and mean medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact stress were assessed with Shrout-Fleiss intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs. The segmentation and registration steps of the modeling approach were found to have excellent day-to-day (ICC 0.93–0.99 and good inter-rater reliability (0.84–0.97. This approach for estimating compartment-specific tibiofemoral contact stress appears to be sufficiently reliable for use in large population-based cohorts.

  20. Analysis of Monte Carlo methods for the simulation of photon transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsson, G.A.; Kusoffsky, L.

    1975-01-01

    In connection with the transport of low-energy photons (30 - 140 keV) through layers of water of different thicknesses, various aspects of Monte Carlo methods are examined in order to improve their effectivity (to produce statistically more reliable results with shorter computer times) and to bridge the gap between more physical methods and more mathematical ones. The calculations are compared with results of experiments involving the simulation of photon transport, using direct methods and collision density ones (J.S.)

  1. Evaluation of the reliability of Levine method of wound swab for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of Levine swab in accurate identification of microorganisms present in a wound and identify the necessity for further studies in this regard. Methods: A semi structured questionnaire was administered and physical examination was performed on patients with chronic wounds ...

  2. A new method to evaluate the sealing reliability of the flanged connections for Molten Salt Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Qiming, E-mail: liqiming@sinap.ac.cn [Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201800 (China); Key Laboratory of Nuclear Radiation and Nuclear Energy Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201800 (China); Tian, Jian; Zhou, Chong [Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201800 (China); Key Laboratory of Nuclear Radiation and Nuclear Energy Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201800 (China); Wang, Naxiu, E-mail: wangnaxiu@sinap.ac.cn [Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201800 (China); Key Laboratory of Nuclear Radiation and Nuclear Energy Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201800 (China)

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • We novelly valuate the sealing reliability of the flanged connections for MSRs. • We focus on the passive decrease of the leak impetus in flanged connections. • The modified flanged connections are acquired a sealing ability of self-adjustment. • Effects of redesigned flange configurations on molten salt leakage are discussed. - Abstract: The Thorium based Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR) project is a future Generation IV nuclear reactor system proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences with the strategic goal of meeting the growing energy needs in the Chinese economic development and social progress. It is based on liquid salts served as both fuel and primary coolant and consequently great challenges are brought into the sealing of the flanged connections. In this study, an improved prototype flange assembly is performed on the strength of the Freeze-Flange initially developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The calculation results of the finite element model established to analyze the temperature profile of the Freeze-Flange agree well with the experimental data, which indicates that the numerical simulation method is credible. For further consideration, the ideal-gas thermodynamic model, together with the mathematical approximation, is novelly borrowed to theoretically evaluate the sealing performance of the modified Freeze-Flange and the traditional double gaskets bolted flange joint. This study focuses on the passive decrease of the leak driving force due to multiple gaskets introduced in flanged connections for MSR. The effects of the redesigned flange configuration on molten salt leakage resistance are discussed in detail.

  3. A new method to evaluate the sealing reliability of the flanged connections for Molten Salt Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Qiming; Tian, Jian; Zhou, Chong; Wang, Naxiu

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We novelly valuate the sealing reliability of the flanged connections for MSRs. • We focus on the passive decrease of the leak impetus in flanged connections. • The modified flanged connections are acquired a sealing ability of self-adjustment. • Effects of redesigned flange configurations on molten salt leakage are discussed. - Abstract: The Thorium based Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR) project is a future Generation IV nuclear reactor system proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences with the strategic goal of meeting the growing energy needs in the Chinese economic development and social progress. It is based on liquid salts served as both fuel and primary coolant and consequently great challenges are brought into the sealing of the flanged connections. In this study, an improved prototype flange assembly is performed on the strength of the Freeze-Flange initially developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The calculation results of the finite element model established to analyze the temperature profile of the Freeze-Flange agree well with the experimental data, which indicates that the numerical simulation method is credible. For further consideration, the ideal-gas thermodynamic model, together with the mathematical approximation, is novelly borrowed to theoretically evaluate the sealing performance of the modified Freeze-Flange and the traditional double gaskets bolted flange joint. This study focuses on the passive decrease of the leak driving force due to multiple gaskets introduced in flanged connections for MSR. The effects of the redesigned flange configuration on molten salt leakage resistance are discussed in detail

  4. Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baoyu LI

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis, and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain. However, efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved. The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation, whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs. While in fact, structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering, thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method, and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT technique to compute the fractional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations, which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs. The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations. Besides, the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis, which is determined by UT, is really small. Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.

  5. Identifying the Barriers to Using Games and Simulations in Education: Creating a Valid and Reliable Survey Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justice, Lenora Jean

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a valid and reliable instrument to measure teacher perceived barriers to the adoption of games and simulations in instruction. Previous research, interviews with educators, a focus group, an expert review, and a think aloud protocol were used to design a survey instrument. After finalization, the survey was…

  6. Development of advanced methods and related software for human reliability evaluation within probabilistic safety analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosmowski, K.T.; Mertens, J.; Degen, G.; Reer, B.

    1994-06-01

    Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is an important part of Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA). The first part of this report consists of an overview of types of human behaviour and human error including the effect of significant performance shaping factors on human reliability. Particularly with regard to safety assessments for nuclear power plants a lot of HRA methods have been developed. The most important of these methods are presented and discussed in the report, together with techniques for incorporating HRA into PSA and with models of operator cognitive behaviour. Based on existing HRA methods the concept of a software system is described. For the development of this system the utilization of modern programming tools is proposed; the essential goal is the effective application of HRA methods. A possible integration of computeraided HRA within PSA is discussed. The features of Expert System Technology and examples of applications (PSA, HRA) are presented in four appendices. (orig.) [de

  7. Assessment of Electronic Circuits Reliability Using Boolean Truth Table Modeling Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EI-Shanshoury, A.I.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the use of Boolean Truth Table modeling Method (BTTM) in the analysis of qualitative data. It is widely used in certain fields especially in the fields of electrical and electronic engineering. Our work focuses on the evaluation of power supply circuit reliability using (BTTM) which involves systematic attempts to falsify and identify hypotheses on the basis of truth tables constructed from qualitative data. Reliability parameters such as the system's failure rates for the power supply case study are estimated. All possible state combinations (operating and failed states) of the major components in the circuit were listed and their effects on overall system were studied

  8. Methods for estimating the reliability of the RBMK fuel assemblies and elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemin, A.I.; Sitkarev, A.G.

    1985-01-01

    Applied non-parametric methods for calculation of point and interval estimations for the basic nomenclature of reliability factors for the RBMK fuel assemblies and elements are described. As the fuel assembly and element reliability factors, the average lifetime is considered at a preset operating time up to unloading due to fuel burnout as well as the average lifetime at the reactor transient operation and at the steady-state fuel reloading mode of reactor operation. The formulae obtained are included into the special standardized engineering documentation

  9. Screening, sensitivity, and uncertainty for the CREAM method of Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedford, Tim; Bayley, Clare; Revie, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    This paper reports a sensitivity analysis of the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method for Human Reliability Analysis. We consider three different aspects: the difference between the outputs of the Basic and Extended methods, on the same HRA scenario; the variability in outputs through the choices made for common performance conditions (CPCs); and the variability in outputs through the assignment of choices for cognitive function failures (CFFs). We discuss the problem of interpreting categories when applying the method, compare its quantitative structure to that of first generation methods and discuss also how dependence is modelled with the approach. We show that the control mode intervals used in the Basic method are too narrow to be consistent with the Extended method. This motivates a new screening method that gives improved accuracy with respect to the Basic method, in the sense that (on average) halves the uncertainty associated with the Basic method. We make some observations on the design of a screening method that are generally applicable in Risk Analysis. Finally, we propose a new method of combining CPC weights with nominal probabilities so that the calculated probabilities are always in range (i.e. between 0 and 1), while satisfying sensible properties that are consistent with the overall CREAM method

  10. A method of bias correction for maximal reliability with dichotomous measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penev, Spiridon; Raykov, Tenko

    2010-02-01

    This paper is concerned with the reliability of weighted combinations of a given set of dichotomous measures. Maximal reliability for such measures has been discussed in the past, but the pertinent estimator exhibits a considerable bias and mean squared error for moderate sample sizes. We examine this bias, propose a procedure for bias correction, and develop a more accurate asymptotic confidence interval for the resulting estimator. In most empirically relevant cases, the bias correction and mean squared error correction can be performed simultaneously. We propose an approximate (asymptotic) confidence interval for the maximal reliability coefficient, discuss the implementation of this estimator, and investigate the mean squared error of the associated asymptotic approximation. We illustrate the proposed methods using a numerical example.

  11. A Simple and Reliable Method of Design for Standalone Photovoltaic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasarao, Mantri; Sudha, K. Rama; Bhanu, C. V. K.

    2017-06-01

    Standalone photovoltaic (SAPV) systems are seen as a promoting method of electrifying areas of developing world that lack power grid infrastructure. Proliferations of these systems require a design procedure that is simple, reliable and exhibit good performance over its life time. The proposed methodology uses simple empirical formulae and easily available parameters to design SAPV systems, that is, array size with energy storage. After arriving at the different array size (area), performance curves are obtained for optimal design of SAPV system with high amount of reliability in terms of autonomy at a specified value of loss of load probability (LOLP). Based on the array to load ratio (ALR) and levelized energy cost (LEC) through life cycle cost (LCC) analysis, it is shown that the proposed methodology gives better performance, requires simple data and is more reliable when compared with conventional design using monthly average daily load and insolation.

  12. Sensitivity Weaknesses in Application of some Statistical Distribution in First Order Reliability Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Enevoldsen, I.

    1993-01-01

    It has been observed and shown that in some examples a sensitivity analysis of the first order reliability index results in increasing reliability index, when the standard deviation for a stochastic variable is increased while the expected value is fixed. This unfortunate behaviour can occur when...... a stochastic variable is modelled by an asymmetrical density function. For lognormally, Gumbel and Weibull distributed stochastic variables it is shown for which combinations of the/3-point, the expected value and standard deviation the weakness can occur. In relation to practical application the behaviour...... is probably rather infrequent. A simple example is shown as illustration and to exemplify that for second order reliability methods and for exact calculations of the probability of failure this behaviour is much more infrequent....

  13. A fast approximation method for reliability analysis of cold-standby systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Amari, Suprasad V.

    2012-01-01

    Analyzing reliability of large cold-standby systems has been a complicated and time-consuming task, especially for systems with components having non-exponential time-to-failure distributions. In this paper, an approximation model, which is based on the central limit theorem, is presented for the reliability analysis of binary cold-standby systems. The proposed model can estimate the reliability of large cold-standby systems with binary-state components having arbitrary time-to-failure distributions in an efficient and easy way. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are illustrated using several different types of distributions for both 1-out-of-n and k-out-of-n cold-standby systems.

  14. A dynamic discretization method for reliability inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Jiandao; Collette, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The material and modeling parameters that drive structural reliability analysis for marine structures are subject to a significant uncertainty. This is especially true when time-dependent degradation mechanisms such as structural fatigue cracking are considered. Through inspection and monitoring, information such as crack location and size can be obtained to improve these parameters and the corresponding reliability estimates. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are a powerful and flexible tool to model dynamic system behavior and update reliability and uncertainty analysis with life cycle data for problems such as fatigue cracking. However, a central challenge in using DBNs is the need to discretize certain types of continuous random variables to perform network inference while still accurately tracking low-probability failure events. Most existing discretization methods focus on getting the overall shape of the distribution correct, with less emphasis on the tail region. Therefore, a novel scheme is presented specifically to estimate the likelihood of low-probability failure events. The scheme is an iterative algorithm which dynamically partitions the discretization intervals at each iteration. Through applications to two stochastic crack-growth example problems, the algorithm is shown to be robust and accurate. Comparisons are presented between the proposed approach and existing methods for the discretization problem. - Highlights: • A dynamic discretization method is developed for low-probability events in DBNs. • The method is compared to existing approaches on two crack growth problems. • The method is shown to improve on existing methods for low-probability events

  15. A Reliable Method to Measure Lip Height Using Photogrammetry in Unilateral Cleft Lip Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Zeeuw, Frederique; Murabit, Amera; Volcano, Johnny; Torensma, Bart; Patel, Brijesh; Hay, Norman; Thorburn, Guy; Morris, Paul; Sommerlad, Brian; Gnarra, Maria; van der Horst, Chantal; Kangesu, Loshan

    2015-09-01

    There is still no reliable tool to determine the outcome of the repaired unilateral cleft lip (UCL). The aim of this study was therefore to develop an accurate, reliable tool to measure vertical lip height from photographs. The authors measured the vertical height of the cutaneous and vermilion parts of the lip in 72 anterior-posterior view photographs of 17 patients with repairs to a UCL. Points on the lip's white roll and vermillion were marked on both the cleft and the noncleft sides on each image. Two new concepts were tested. First, photographs were standardized using the horizontal (medial to lateral) eye fissure width (EFW) for calibration. Second, the authors tested the interpupillary line (IPL) and the alar base line (ABL) for their reliability as horizontal lines of reference. Measurements were taken by 2 independent researchers, at 2 different time points each. Overall 2304 data points were obtained and analyzed. Results showed that the method was very effective in measuring the height of the lip on the cleft side with the noncleft side. When using the IPL, inter- and intra-rater reliability was 0.99 to 1.0, with the ABL it varied from 0.91 to 0.99 with one exception at 0.84. The IPL was easier to define because in some subjects the overhanging nasal tip obscured the alar base and gave more consistent measurements possibly because the reconstructed alar base was sometimes indistinct. However, measurements from the IPL can only give the percentage difference between the left and right sides of the lip, whereas those from the ABL can also give exact measurements. Patient examples were given that show how the measurements correlate with clinical assessment. The authors propose this method of photogrammetry with the innovative use of the IPL as a reliable horizontal plane and use of the EFW for calibration as a useful and reliable tool to assess the outcome of UCL repair.

  16. Identification of reliable gridded reference data for statistical downscaling methods in Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eum, H. I.; Gupta, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models provide essential information to assess impacts of climate change at regional and global scales. However, statistical downscaling methods have been applied to prepare climate model data for various applications such as hydrologic and ecologic modelling at a watershed scale. As the reliability and (spatial and temporal) resolution of statistically downscaled climate data mainly depend on a reference data, identifying the most reliable reference data is crucial for statistical downscaling. A growing number of gridded climate products are available for key climate variables which are main input data to regional modelling systems. However, inconsistencies in these climate products, for example, different combinations of climate variables, varying data domains and data lengths and data accuracy varying with physiographic characteristics of the landscape, have caused significant challenges in selecting the most suitable reference climate data for various environmental studies and modelling. Employing various observation-based daily gridded climate products available in public domain, i.e. thin plate spline regression products (ANUSPLIN and TPS), inverse distance method (Alberta Townships), and numerical climate model (North American Regional Reanalysis) and an optimum interpolation technique (Canadian Precipitation Analysis), this study evaluates the accuracy of the climate products at each grid point by comparing with the Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD) observations for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature over the province of Alberta. Based on the performance of climate products at AHCCD stations, we ranked the reliability of these publically available climate products corresponding to the elevations of stations discretized into several classes. According to the rank of climate products for each elevation class, we identified the most reliable climate products based on the elevation of target points. A web-based system

  17. Development of Reliable and Validated Tools to Evaluate Technical Resuscitation Skills in a Pediatric Simulation Setting: Resuscitation and Emergency Simulation Checklist for Assessment in Pediatrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faudeux, Camille; Tran, Antoine; Dupont, Audrey; Desmontils, Jonathan; Montaudié, Isabelle; Bréaud, Jean; Braun, Marc; Fournier, Jean-Paul; Bérard, Etienne; Berlengi, Noémie; Schweitzer, Cyril; Haas, Hervé; Caci, Hervé; Gatin, Amélie; Giovannini-Chami, Lisa

    2017-09-01

    To develop a reliable and validated tool to evaluate technical resuscitation skills in a pediatric simulation setting. Four Resuscitation and Emergency Simulation Checklist for Assessment in Pediatrics (RESCAPE) evaluation tools were created, following international guidelines: intraosseous needle insertion, bag mask ventilation, endotracheal intubation, and cardiac massage. We applied a modified Delphi methodology evaluation to binary rating items. Reliability was assessed comparing the ratings of 2 observers (1 in real time and 1 after a video-recorded review). The tools were assessed for content, construct, and criterion validity, and for sensitivity to change. Inter-rater reliability, evaluated with Cohen kappa coefficients, was perfect or near-perfect (>0.8) for 92.5% of items and each Cronbach alpha coefficient was ≥0.91. Principal component analyses showed that all 4 tools were unidimensional. Significant increases in median scores with increasing levels of medical expertise were demonstrated for RESCAPE-intraosseous needle insertion (P = .0002), RESCAPE-bag mask ventilation (P = .0002), RESCAPE-endotracheal intubation (P = .0001), and RESCAPE-cardiac massage (P = .0037). Significantly increased median scores over time were also demonstrated during a simulation-based educational program. RESCAPE tools are reliable and validated tools for the evaluation of technical resuscitation skills in pediatric settings during simulation-based educational programs. They might also be used for medical practice performance evaluations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Reliability Study Regarding the Use of Histogram Similarity Methods for Damage Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Gillich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the reliability of three dissimilarity estimators to compare histograms, as support for a frequency-based damage detection method, able to identify structural changes in beam-like structures. First a brief presentation of the own developed damage detection method is made, with focus on damage localization. It consists actually in comparing a histogram derived from measurement results, with a large series of histograms, namely the damage location indexes for all locations along the beam, obtained by calculus. We tested some dissimilarity estimators like the Minkowski-form Distances, the Kullback-Leibler Divergence and the Histogram Intersection and found the Minkowski Distance as the method providing best results. It was tested for numerous locations, using real measurement results and with results artificially debased by noise, proving its reliability.

  19. Probabilistic physics-of-failure models for component reliabilities using Monte Carlo simulation and Weibull analysis: a parametric study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, P.L.; Strutt, J.E.

    2003-01-01

    In reliability engineering, component failures are generally classified in one of three ways: (1) early life failures; (2) failures having random onset times; and (3) late life or 'wear out' failures. When the time-distribution of failures of a population of components is analysed in terms of a Weibull distribution, these failure types may be associated with shape parameters β having values 1 respectively. Early life failures are frequently attributed to poor design (e.g. poor materials selection) or problems associated with manufacturing or assembly processes. We describe a methodology for the implementation of physics-of-failure models of component lifetimes in the presence of parameter and model uncertainties. This treats uncertain parameters as random variables described by some appropriate statistical distribution, which may be sampled using Monte Carlo methods. The number of simulations required depends upon the desired accuracy of the predicted lifetime. Provided that the number of sampled variables is relatively small, an accuracy of 1-2% can be obtained using typically 1000 simulations. The resulting collection of times-to-failure are then sorted into ascending order and fitted to a Weibull distribution to obtain a shape factor β and a characteristic life-time η. Examples are given of the results obtained using three different models: (1) the Eyring-Peck (EP) model for corrosion of printed circuit boards; (2) a power-law corrosion growth (PCG) model which represents the progressive deterioration of oil and gas pipelines; and (3) a random shock-loading model of mechanical failure. It is shown that for any specific model the values of the Weibull shape parameters obtained may be strongly dependent on the degree of uncertainty of the underlying input parameters. Both the EP and PCG models can yield a wide range of values of β, from β>1, characteristic of wear-out behaviour, to β<1, characteristic of early-life failure, depending on the degree of

  20. U.S. Army Physical Demands Study: Reliability of Simulations of Physically Demanding Tasks Performed by Combat Arms Soldiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulis, Stephen A; Redmond, Jan E; Frykman, Peter N; Warr, Bradley J; Zambraski, Edward J; Sharp, Marilyn A

    2017-12-01

    Foulis, SA, Redmond, JE, Frykman, PN, Warr, BJ, Zambraski, EJ, and Sharp, MA. U.S. Army physical demands study: reliability of simulations of physically demanding tasks performed by combat arms soldiers. J Strength Cond Res 31(12): 3245-3252, 2017-Recently, the U.S. Army has mandated that soldiers must successfully complete the physically demanding tasks of their job to graduate from their Initial Military Training. Evaluating individual soldiers in the field is difficult; however, simulations of these tasks may aid in the assessment of soldiers' abilities. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of simulated physical soldiering tasks relevant to combat arms soldiers. Three cohorts of ∼50 soldiers repeated a subset of 8 simulated tasks 4 times over 2 weeks. Simulations included: sandbag carry, casualty drag, and casualty evacuation from a vehicle turret, move under direct fire, stow ammunition on a tank, load the main gun of a tank, transferring ammunition with a field artillery supply vehicle, and a 4-mile foot march. Reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), standard errors of measurement (SEMs), and 95% limits of agreement. Performance of the casualty drag and foot march did not improve across trials (p > 0.05), whereas improvements, suggestive of learning effects, were observed on the remaining 6 tasks (p ≤ 0.05). The ICCs ranged from 0.76 to 0.96, and the SEMs ranged from 3 to 16% of the mean. These 8 simulated tasks show high reliability. Given proper practice, they are suitable for evaluating the ability of Combat Arms Soldiers to complete the physical requirements of their jobs.

  1. Reliability of an experimental method to analyse the impact point on a golf ball during putting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Ashley K; Mitchell, Andrew C S; Hughes, Gerwyn

    2015-06-01

    This study aimed to examine the reliability of an experimental method identifying the location of the impact point on a golf ball during putting. Forty trials were completed using a mechanical putting robot set to reproduce a putt of 3.2 m, with four different putter-ball combinations. After locating the centre of the dimple pattern (centroid) the following variables were tested; distance of the impact point from the centroid, angle of the impact point from the centroid and distance of the impact point from the centroid derived from the X, Y coordinates. Good to excellent reliability was demonstrated in all impact variables reflected in very strong relative (ICC = 0.98-1.00) and absolute reliability (SEM% = 0.9-4.3%). The highest SEM% observed was 7% for the angle of the impact point from the centroid. In conclusion, the experimental method was shown to be reliable at locating the centroid location of a golf ball, therefore allowing for the identification of the point of impact with the putter head and is suitable for use in subsequent studies.

  2. Exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis with missing data: A simple method for SPSS users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Weaver

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Missing data is a frequent problem for researchers conducting exploratory factor analysis (EFA or reliability analysis. The SPSS FACTOR procedure allows users to select listwise deletion, pairwise deletion or mean substitution as a method for dealing with missing data. The shortcomings of these methods are well-known. Graham (2009 argues that a much better way to deal with missing data in this context is to use a matrix of expectation maximization (EM covariances(or correlations as input for the analysis. SPSS users who have the Missing Values Analysis add-on module can obtain vectors ofEM means and standard deviations plus EM correlation and covariance matrices via the MVA procedure. But unfortunately, MVA has no /MATRIX subcommand, and therefore cannot write the EM correlations directly to a matrix dataset of the type needed as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We describe two macros that (in conjunction with an intervening MVA command carry out the data management steps needed to create two matrix datasets, one containing EM correlations and the other EM covariances. Either of those matrix datasets can then be used asinput to the FACTOR procedure, and the EM correlations can also be used as input to RELIABILITY. We provide an example that illustrates the use of the two macros to generate the matrix datasets and how to use those datasets as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We hope that this simple method for handling missing data will prove useful to both students andresearchers who are conducting EFA or reliability analysis.

  3. Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on subset simulation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Dongqing; Wang Baosheng; Zhang Jianmin; Jiang Jing

    2012-01-01

    In order to solve the problem of multi-dimensional epistemic uncertainties and small functional failure probability of passive systems, an innovative reliability analysis algorithm called subset simulation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo was presented. The method is found on the idea that a small failure probability can be expressed as a product of larger conditional failure probabilities by introducing a proper choice of intermediate failure events. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to efficiently generate conditional samples for estimating the conditional failure probabilities. Taking the AP1000 passive residual heat removal system, for example, the uncertainties related to the model of a passive system and the numerical values of its input parameters were considered in this paper. And then the probability of functional failure was estimated with subset simulation method. The numerical results demonstrate that subset simulation method has the high computing efficiency and excellent computing accuracy compared with traditional probability analysis methods. (authors)

  4. Numerical methods in simulation of resistance welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Chris Valentin; Martins, Paulo A.F.; Zhang, Wenqi

    2015-01-01

    Finite element simulation of resistance welding requires coupling betweenmechanical, thermal and electrical models. This paper presents the numerical models and theircouplings that are utilized in the computer program SORPAS. A mechanical model based onthe irreducible flow formulation is utilized...... a resistance welding point of view, the most essential coupling between the above mentioned models is the heat generation by electrical current due to Joule heating. The interaction between multiple objects is anothercritical feature of the numerical simulation of resistance welding because it influences...... thecontact area and the distribution of contact pressure. The numerical simulation of resistancewelding is illustrated by a spot welding example that includes subsequent tensile shear testing...

  5. Virtual Crowds Methods, Simulation, and Control

    CERN Document Server

    Pelechano, Nuria; Allbeck, Jan

    2008-01-01

    There are many applications of computer animation and simulation where it is necessary to model virtual crowds of autonomous agents. Some of these applications include site planning, education, entertainment, training, and human factors analysis for building evacuation. Other applications include simulations of scenarios where masses of people gather, flow, and disperse, such as transportation centers, sporting events, and concerts. Most crowd simulations include only basic locomotive behaviors possibly coupled with a few stochastic actions. Our goal in this survey is to establish a baseline o

  6. Reliability of different mark-recapture methods for population size estimation tested against reference population sizes constructed from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret Grimm

    Full Text Available Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK. If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2. Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to

  7. Reliability of fitness tests using methods and time periods common in sport and occupational management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnstein, Bryan D; Steele, Russell J; Shrier, Ian

    2011-01-01

    Fitness testing is used frequently in many areas of physical activity, but the reliability of these measurements under real-world, practical conditions is unknown. To evaluate the reliability of specific fitness tests using the methods and time periods used in the context of real-world sport and occupational management. Cohort study. Eighteen different Cirque du Soleil shows. Cirque du Soleil physical performers who completed 4 consecutive tests (6-month intervals) and were free of injury or illness at each session (n = 238 of 701 physical performers). Performers completed 6 fitness tests on each assessment date: dynamic balance, Harvard step test, handgrip, vertical jump, pull-ups, and 60-second jump test. We calculated the intraclass coefficient (ICC) and limits of agreement between baseline and each time point and the ICC over all 4 time points combined. Reliability was acceptable (ICC > 0.6) over an 18-month time period for all pairwise comparisons and all time points together for the handgrip, vertical jump, and pull-up assessments. The Harvard step test and 60-second jump test had poor reliability (ICC < 0.6) between baseline and other time points. When we excluded the baseline data and calculated the ICC for 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month time points, both the Harvard step test and 60-second jump test demonstrated acceptable reliability. Dynamic balance was unreliable in all contexts. Limit-of-agreement analysis demonstrated considerable intraindividual variability for some tests and a learning effect by administrators on others. Five of the 6 tests in this battery had acceptable reliability over an 18-month time frame, but the values for certain individuals may vary considerably from time to time for some tests. Specific tests may require a learning period for administrators.

  8. A fracture mechanics and reliability based method to assess non-destructive testings for pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitagawa, Hideo; Hisada, Toshiaki

    1979-01-01

    Quantitative evaluation has not been made on the effects of carrying out preservice and in-service nondestructive tests for securing the soundness, safety and maintainability of pressure vessels, spending large expenses and labor. Especially the problems concerning the time and interval of in-service inspections lack the reasonable, quantitative evaluation method. In this paper, the problems of pressure vessels are treated by having developed the analysis method based on reliability technology and probability theory. The growth of surface cracks in pressure vessels was estimated, using the results of previous studies. The effects of nondestructive inspection on the defects in pressure vessels were evaluated, and the influences of many factors, such as plate thickness, stress, the accuracy of inspection and so on, on the effects of inspection, and the method of evaluating the inspections at unequal intervals were investigated. The analysis of reliability taking in-service inspection into consideration, the evaluation of in-service inspection and other affecting factors through the typical examples of analysis, and the review concerning the time of inspection are described. The method of analyzing the reliability of pressure vessels, considering the growth of defects and preservice and in-service nondestructive tests, was able to be systematized so as to be practically usable. (Kako, I.)

  9. Method for assessing the reliability of molecular diagnostics based on multiplexed SERS-coded nanoparticles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Y Leigh

    Full Text Available Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS nanoparticles have been engineered to generate unique fingerprint spectra and are potentially useful as bright contrast agents for molecular diagnostics. One promising strategy for biomedical diagnostics and imaging is to functionalize various particle types ("flavors", each emitting a unique spectral signature, to target a large multiplexed panel of molecular biomarkers. While SERS particles emit narrow spectral features that allow them to be easily separable under ideal conditions, the presence of competing noise sources and background signals such as detector noise, laser background, and autofluorescence confounds the reliability of demultiplexing algorithms. Results obtained during time-constrained in vivo imaging experiments may not be reproducible or accurate. Therefore, our goal is to provide experimentalists with a metric that may be monitored to enforce a desired bound on accuracy within a user-defined confidence level. We have defined a spectral reliability index (SRI, based on the output of a direct classical least-squares (DCLS demultiplexing routine, which provides a measure of the reliability of the computed nanoparticle concentrations and ratios. We present simulations and experiments to demonstrate the feasibility of this strategy, which can potentially be utilized for a range of instruments and biomedical applications involving multiplexed SERS nanoparticles.

  10. PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Jeffrey C. Joe; Julie L. Marble

    2005-01-01

    An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or ''discount'' methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining human centered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings with HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI

  11. Comparison of sample preparation methods for reliable plutonium and neptunium urinalysis using automatic extraction chromatography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qiao, Jixin; Xu, Yihong; Hou, Xiaolin

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes improvement and comparison of analytical methods for simultaneous determination of trace-level plutonium and neptunium in urine samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Four sample pre-concentration techniques, including calcium phosphate, iron......), it endows urinalysis methods with better reliability and repeatability compared with co-precipitation techniques. In view of the applicability of different pre-concentration techniques proposed previously in the literature, the main challenge behind relevant method development is pointed to be the release...

  12. Reliability of different methods used for forming of working samples in the laboratory for seed testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Opra Branislava

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The testing of seed quality starts from the moment a sample is formed in a warehouse during processing or packaging of the seed. The seed sampling as the process of obtaining the working sample also assumes each step undertaken during its testing in the laboratory. With the aim of appropriate forming of a seed sample in the laboratory, the usage of seed divider is prescribed for large seeded species (such as seed the size of wheat or larger (ISTA Rules, 1999. The aim of this paper was the comparison of different methods used for obtaining the working samples of maize and wheat seeds using conical, soil and centrifugal dividers. The number of seed of added admixtures confirmed the reliability of working samples formation. To each maize sample (1000 g 10 seeds of the following admixtures were added: Zea mays L. (red pericarp, Hordeum vulgäre L., Triticum aestivum L., and Glycine max (L. Merr. Two methods were used for formation of maze seed working sample. To wheat samples (1000 g 10 seeds of each of the following species were added: Avena saliva (hulled seeds, Hordeum vulgäre L., Galium tricorne Stokes, and Polygonum lapatifolmm L. For formation of wheat seed working samples four methods were used. Optimum of 9, but not less than 7 seeds of admixture were due to be determined in the maize seed working sample, while for wheat, at least one seed of admixture was expected to be found in the working sample. The obtained results confirmed that the formation of the maize seed working samples was the most reliable when centrifugal divider, the first method was used (average of admixture - 9.37. From the observed admixtures the seed of Triticum aestivum L. was the most uniformly distributed, the first method also being used (6.93. The second method gains high average values satisfying the given criterion, but it should be used with previous homogenization of the sample being tested. The forming of wheat seed working samples is the most reliable if the

  13. Development of an analysis rule of diagnosis error for standard method of human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, W. D.; Kang, D. I.; Jeong, K. S.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents the status of development of Korea standard method for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), and proposed a standard procedure and rules for the evaluation of diagnosis error probability. The quality of KSNP HRA was evaluated using the requirement of ASME PRA standard guideline, and the design requirement for the standard HRA method was defined. Analysis procedure and rules, developed so far, to analyze diagnosis error probability was suggested as a part of the standard method. And also a study of comprehensive application was performed to evaluate the suitability of the proposed rules

  14. Numerical simulation for cracks detection using the finite elements method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Bennoud

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The means of detection must ensure controls either during initial construction, or at the time of exploitation of all parts. The Non destructive testing (NDT gathers the most widespread methods for detecting defects of a part or review the integrity of a structure. In the areas of advanced industry (aeronautics, aerospace, nuclear …, assessing the damage of materials is a key point to control durability and reliability of parts and materials in service. In this context, it is necessary to quantify the damage and identify the different mechanisms responsible for the progress of this damage. It is therefore essential to characterize materials and identify the most sensitive indicators attached to damage to prevent their destruction and use them optimally. In this work, simulation by finite elements method is realized with aim to calculate the electromagnetic energy of interaction: probe and piece (with/without defect. From calculated energy, we deduce the real and imaginary components of the impedance which enables to determine the characteristic parameters of a crack in various metallic parts.

  15. Review on Laryngeal Palpation Methods in Muscle Tension Dysphonia: Validity and Reliability Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoddami, Seyyedeh Maryam; Ansari, Noureddin Nakhostin; Jalaie, Shohreh

    2015-07-01

    Laryngeal palpation is a common clinical method for the assessment of neck and laryngeal muscles in muscle tension dysphonia (MTD). To review the available laryngeal palpation methods used in patients with MTD for the assessment, diagnosis, or document of treatment outcomes. A systematic review of the literature concerning palpatory methods in MTD was conducted using the databases MEDLINE (PubMed), ScienceDirect, Scopus, Web of science, Web of knowledge and Cochrane Library between July and October 2013. Relevant studies were identified by one reviewer based on screened titles/abstracts and full texts. Manual searching was also used to track the source literature. There were five main as well as miscellaneous palpation methods that were different according to target anatomical structures, judgment or grading system, and using tasks. There were only a few scales available, and the majority of the palpatory methods were qualitative. Most of the palpatory methods evaluate the tension at both static and dynamic tasks. There was little information about the validity and reliability of the available methods. The literature on the scientific evidence of muscle tension indicators perceived by laryngeal palpation in MTD is scarce. Future studies should be conducted to investigate the validity and reliability of palpation methods. Copyright © 2015 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Method of administration of PROMIS scales did not significantly impact score level, reliability, or validity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjorner, Jakob B; Rose, Matthias; Gandek, Barbara

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To test the impact of the method of administration (MOA) on score level, reliability, and validity of scales developed in the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Two nonoverlapping parallel forms each containing eight items from......, no significant mode differences were found and all confidence intervals were within the prespecified minimal important difference of 0.2 standard deviation. Parallel-forms reliabilities were very high (ICC = 0.85-0.93). Only one across-mode ICC was significantly lower than the same-mode ICC. Tests of validity...... questionnaire (PQ), personal digital assistant (PDA), or personal computer (PC) and a second form by PC, in the same administration. Method equivalence was evaluated through analyses of difference scores, intraclass correlations (ICCs), and convergent/discriminant validity. RESULTS: In difference score analyses...

  17. Establishing survey validity and reliability for American Indians through "think aloud" and test-retest methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauge, Cindy Horst; Jacobs-Knight, Jacque; Jensen, Jamie L; Burgess, Katherine M; Puumala, Susan E; Wilton, Georgiana; Hanson, Jessica D

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to use a mixed-methods approach to determine the validity and reliability of measurements used within an alcohol-exposed pregnancy prevention program for American Indian women. To develop validity, content experts provided input into the survey measures, and a "think aloud" methodology was conducted with 23 American Indian women. After revising the measurements based on this input, a test-retest was conducted with 79 American Indian women who were randomized to complete either the original measurements or the new, modified measurements. The test-retest revealed that some of the questions performed better for the modified version, whereas others appeared to be more reliable for the original version. The mixed-methods approach was a useful methodology for gathering feedback on survey measurements from American Indian participants and in indicating specific survey questions that needed to be modified for this population. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for Laminated Composite Plate Using Response Surface Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seokje; Kim, Ingul; Jang, Moonho; Kim, Jaeki; Moon, Jungwon

    2013-01-01

    Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using Callosum and Meatball interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle

  19. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for Laminated Composite Plate Using Response Surface Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seokje; Kim, Ingul [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Moonho; Kim, Jaeki; Moon, Jungwon [LIG Nex1, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-04-15

    Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using Callosum and Meatball interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle.

  20. Insights from Synthetic Star-forming Regions. I. Reliable Mock Observations from SPH Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koepferl, Christine M.; Robitaille, Thomas P.; Biscani, Francesco [Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Königstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Dale, James E., E-mail: koepferl@usm.lmu.de [University Observatory Munich, Scheinerstr. 1, D-81679 Munich (Germany)

    2017-11-01

    Through synthetic observations of a hydrodynamical simulation of an evolving star-forming region, we assess how the choice of observational techniques affects the measurements of properties that trace star formation. Testing and calibrating observational measurements requires synthetic observations that are as realistic as possible. In this part of the series (Paper I), we explore different techniques for mapping the distributions of densities and temperatures from the particle-based simulations onto a Voronoi mesh suitable for radiative transfer and consequently explore their accuracy. We further test different ways to set up the radiative transfer in order to produce realistic synthetic observations. We give a detailed description of all methods and ultimately recommend techniques. We have found that the flux around 20 μ m is strongly overestimated when blindly coupling the dust radiative transfer temperature with the hydrodynamical gas temperature. We find that when instead assuming a constant background dust temperature in addition to the radiative transfer heating, the recovered flux is consistent with actual observations. We present around 5800 realistic synthetic observations for Spitzer and Herschel bands, at different evolutionary time-steps, distances, and orientations. In the upcoming papers of this series (Papers II, III, and IV), we will test and calibrate measurements of the star formation rate, gas mass, and the star formation efficiency using our realistic synthetic observations.

  1. INNOVATIVE METHODS TO EVALUATE THE RELIABILITY OF INFORMATION CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina P. Kurochkina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article explores the possibility of using foreign innovative methods to assess the reliabilityof information consolidated fi nancial statements of Russian companies. Recommendations aremade under their adaptation and applicationinto commercial organizations. Banish methodindicators are implemented in one of the world’s largest vertically integrated steel and miningcompanies. Audit firms are proposed to usemethods of assessing the reliability of information in the practical application of ISA.

  2. A new method for evaluating the availability, reliability, and maintainability whatever may be the probability law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doyon, L.R.; CEA Centre d'Etudes Nucleaires de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette

    1975-01-01

    A simple method is presented for computer solving every system model (availability, reliability, and maintenance) with intervals between failures, and time duration for repairs distributed according to any probability law, and for any maintainance policy. A matrix equation is obtained using Markov diagrams. An example is given with the solution by the APAFS program (Algorithme Pour l'Analyse de la Fiabilite des Systemes) [fr

  3. Reliability design of a critical facility: An application of PRA methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza Vieira Neto, A.; Souza Borges, W. de

    1987-01-01

    Although a general agreement concerning the enforcement of reliability (probabilistic) design criteria for nuclear utilities is yet to be achieved. PRA methodology can still be used successfully as a project design and review tool, aimed at improving system's prospective performance or minimizing expected accident consequences. In this paper, the potential of such an application of PRA methods is examined in the special case of a critical design project currently being developed in Brazil. (orig.)

  4. System principles, mathematical models and methods to ensure high reliability of safety systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaslavskyi, V.

    2017-04-01

    Modern safety and security systems are composed of a large number of various components designed for detection, localization, tracking, collecting, and processing of information from the systems of monitoring, telemetry, control, etc. They are required to be highly reliable in a view to correctly perform data aggregation, processing and analysis for subsequent decision making support. On design and construction phases of the manufacturing of such systems a various types of components (elements, devices, and subsystems) are considered and used to ensure high reliability of signals detection, noise isolation, and erroneous commands reduction. When generating design solutions for highly reliable systems a number of restrictions and conditions such as types of components and various constrains on resources should be considered. Various types of components perform identical functions; however, they are implemented using diverse principles, approaches and have distinct technical and economic indicators such as cost or power consumption. The systematic use of different component types increases the probability of tasks performing and eliminates the common cause failure. We consider type-variety principle as an engineering principle of system analysis, mathematical models based on this principle, and algorithms for solving optimization problems of highly reliable safety and security systems design. Mathematical models are formalized in a class of two-level discrete optimization problems of large dimension. The proposed approach, mathematical models, algorithms can be used for problem solving of optimal redundancy on the basis of a variety of methods and control devices for fault and defects detection in technical systems, telecommunication networks, and energy systems.

  5. Decreasing inventory of a cement factory roller mill parts using reliability centered maintenance method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witantyo; Rindiyah, Anita

    2018-03-01

    According to data from maintenance planning and control, it was obtained that highest inventory value is non-routine components. Maintenance components are components which procured based on maintenance activities. The problem happens because there is no synchronization between maintenance activities and the components required. Reliability Centered Maintenance method is used to overcome the problem by reevaluating maintenance activities required components. The case chosen is roller mill system because it has the highest unscheduled downtime record. Components required for each maintenance activities will be determined by its failure distribution, so the number of components needed could be predicted. Moreover, those components will be reclassified from routine component to be non-routine component, so the procurement could be carried out regularly. Based on the conducted analysis, failure happens in almost every maintenance task are classified to become scheduled on condition task, scheduled discard task, schedule restoration task and no schedule maintenance. From 87 used components for maintenance activities are evaluated and there 19 components that experience reclassification from non-routine components to routine components. Then the reliability and need of those components were calculated for one-year operation period. Based on this invention, it is suggested to change all of the components in overhaul activity to increase the reliability of roller mill system. Besides, the inventory system should follow maintenance schedule and the number of required components in maintenance activity so the value of procurement will be decreased and the reliability system will increase.

  6. Reliability of Lyapunov characteristic exponents computed by the two-particle method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Lijie; Huang, Li

    2018-03-01

    For highly complex problems, such as the post-Newtonian formulation of compact binaries, the two-particle method may be a better, or even the only, choice to compute the Lyapunov characteristic exponent (LCE). This method avoids the complex calculations of variational equations compared with the variational method. However, the two-particle method sometimes provides spurious estimates to LCEs. In this paper, we first analyze the equivalence in the definition of LCE between the variational and two-particle methods for Hamiltonian systems. Then, we develop a criterion to determine the reliability of LCEs computed by the two-particle method by considering the magnitude of the initial tangent (or separation) vector ξ0 (or δ0), renormalization time interval τ, machine precision ε, and global truncation error ɛT. The reliable Lyapunov characteristic indicators estimated by the two-particle method form a V-shaped region, which is restricted by d0, ε, and ɛT. Finally, the numerical experiments with the Hénon-Heiles system, the spinning compact binaries, and the post-Newtonian circular restricted three-body problem strongly support the theoretical results.

  7. A dynamic particle filter-support vector regression method for reliability prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Zhao; Tao, Tao; ZhuoShu, Ding; Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Support vector regression (SVR) has been applied to time series prediction and some works have demonstrated the feasibility of its use to forecast system reliability. For accuracy of reliability forecasting, the selection of SVR's parameters is important. The existing research works on SVR's parameters selection divide the example dataset into training and test subsets, and tune the parameters on the training data. However, these fixed parameters can lead to poor prediction capabilities if the data of the test subset differ significantly from those of training. Differently, the novel method proposed in this paper uses particle filtering to estimate the SVR model parameters according to the whole measurement sequence up to the last observation instance. By treating the SVR training model as the observation equation of a particle filter, our method allows updating the SVR model parameters dynamically when a new observation comes. Because of the adaptability of the parameters to dynamic data pattern, the new PF–SVR method has superior prediction performance over that of standard SVR. Four application results show that PF–SVR is more robust than SVR to the decrease of the number of training data and the change of initial SVR parameter values. Also, even if there are trends in the test data different from those in the training data, the method can capture the changes, correct the SVR parameters and obtain good predictions. -- Highlights: •A dynamic PF–SVR method is proposed to predict the system reliability. •The method can adjust the SVR parameters according to the change of data. •The method is robust to the size of training data and initial parameter values. •Some cases based on both artificial and real data are studied. •PF–SVR shows superior prediction performance over standard SVR

  8. Collaborative simulation method with spatiotemporal synchronization process control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yisheng; Ding, Guofu; Zhang, Weihua; Zhang, Jian; Qin, Shengfeng; Tan, John Kian

    2016-10-01

    When designing a complex mechatronics system, such as high speed trains, it is relatively difficult to effectively simulate the entire system's dynamic behaviors because it involves multi-disciplinary subsystems. Currently,a most practical approach for multi-disciplinary simulation is interface based coupling simulation method, but it faces a twofold challenge: spatial and time unsynchronizations among multi-directional coupling simulation of subsystems. A new collaborative simulation method with spatiotemporal synchronization process control is proposed for coupling simulating a given complex mechatronics system across multiple subsystems on different platforms. The method consists of 1) a coupler-based coupling mechanisms to define the interfacing and interaction mechanisms among subsystems, and 2) a simulation process control algorithm to realize the coupling simulation in a spatiotemporal synchronized manner. The test results from a case study show that the proposed method 1) can certainly be used to simulate the sub-systems interactions under different simulation conditions in an engineering system, and 2) effectively supports multi-directional coupling simulation among multi-disciplinary subsystems. This method has been successfully applied in China high speed train design and development processes, demonstrating that it can be applied in a wide range of engineering systems design and simulation with improved efficiency and effectiveness.

  9. Math-Based Simulation Tools and Methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Arepally, Sudhakar

    2007-01-01

    .... The following methods are reviewed: matrix operations, ordinary and partial differential system of equations, Lagrangian operations, Fourier transforms, Taylor Series, Finite Difference Methods, implicit and explicit finite element...

  10. Reliability and validity of a brief method to assess nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhudy, Jamie L; France, Christopher R

    2011-07-01

    The nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) is a physiological tool to study spinal nociception. However, NFR assessment can take several minutes and expose participants to repeated suprathreshold stimulations. The 4 studies reported here assessed the reliability and validity of a brief method to assess NFR threshold that uses a single ascending series of stimulations (Peak 1 NFR), by comparing it to a well-validated method that uses 3 ascending/descending staircases of stimulations (Staircase NFR). Correlations between the NFR definitions were high, were on par with test-retest correlations of Staircase NFR, and were not affected by participant sex or chronic pain status. Results also indicated the test-retest reliabilities for the 2 definitions were similar. Using larger stimulus increments (4 mAs) to assess Peak 1 NFR tended to result in higher NFR threshold estimates than using the Staircase NFR definition, whereas smaller stimulus increments (2 mAs) tended to result in lower NFR threshold estimates than the Staircase NFR definition. Neither NFR definition was correlated with anxiety, pain catastrophizing, or anxiety sensitivity. In sum, a single ascending series of electrical stimulations results in a reliable and valid estimate of NFR threshold. However, caution may be warranted when comparing NFR thresholds across studies that differ in the ascending stimulus increments. This brief method to assess NFR threshold is reliable and valid; therefore, it should be useful to clinical pain researchers interested in quickly assessing inter- and intra-individual differences in spinal nociceptive processes. Copyright © 2011 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Development of A Standard Method for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan

    2005-12-01

    According as the demand of risk-informed regulation and applications increase, the quality and reliability of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been more important. KAERI started a study to standardize the process and the rules of HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) which was known as a major contributor to the uncertainty of PSA. The study made progress as follows; assessing the level of quality of the HRAs in Korea and identifying the weaknesses of the HRAs, determining the requirements for developing a standard HRA method, developing the process and rules for quantifying human error probability. Since the risk-informed applications use the ASME and ANS PSA standard to ensure PSA quality, the standard HRA method was developed to meet the ASME and ANS HRA requirements with level of category II. The standard method was based on THERP and ASEP HRA that are widely used for conventional HRA. However, the method focuses on standardizing and specifying the analysis process, quantification rules and criteria to minimize the deviation of the analysis results caused by different analysts. Several HRA experts from different organizations in Korea participated in developing the standard method. Several case studies were interactively undertaken to verify the usability and applicability of the standard method

  12. Development of A Standard Method for Human Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Won Dea; Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Jae Whan

    2005-12-01

    According as the demand of risk-informed regulation and applications increase, the quality and reliability of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been more important. KAERI started a study to standardize the process and the rules of HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) which was known as a major contributor to the uncertainty of PSA. The study made progress as follows; assessing the level of quality of the HRAs in Korea and identifying the weaknesses of the HRAs, determining the requirements for developing a standard HRA method, developing the process and rules for quantifying human error probability. Since the risk-informed applications use the ASME PSA standard to ensure PSA quality, the standard HRA method was developed to meet the ASME HRA requirements with level of category II. The standard method was based on THERP and ASEP HRA that are widely used for conventional HRA. However, the method focuses on standardizing and specifying the analysis process, quantification rules and criteria to minimize the deviation of the analysis results caused by different analysts. Several HRA experts from different organizations in Korea participated in developing the standard method. Several case studies were interactively undertaken to verify the usability and applicability of the standard method

  13. Matrix-based system reliability method and applications to bridge networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, W.-H.; Song Junho; Gardoni, Paolo

    2008-01-01

    Using a matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method, one can estimate the probabilities of complex system events by simple matrix calculations. Unlike existing system reliability methods whose complexity depends highly on that of the system event, the MSR method describes any general system event in a simple matrix form and therefore provides a more convenient way of handling the system event and estimating its probability. Even in the case where one has incomplete information on the component probabilities and/or the statistical dependence thereof, the matrix-based framework enables us to estimate the narrowest bounds on the system failure probability by linear programming. This paper presents the MSR method and applies it to a transportation network consisting of bridge structures. The seismic failure probabilities of bridges are estimated by use of the predictive fragility curves developed by a Bayesian methodology based on experimental data and existing deterministic models of the seismic capacity and demand. Using the MSR method, the probability of disconnection between each city/county and a critical facility is estimated. The probability mass function of the number of failed bridges is computed as well. In order to quantify the relative importance of bridges, the MSR method is used to compute the conditional probabilities of bridge failures given that there is at least one city disconnected from the critical facility. The bounds on the probability of disconnection are also obtained for cases with incomplete information

  14. Development of A Standard Method for Human Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Won Dea; Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Jae Whan

    2005-12-15

    According as the demand of risk-informed regulation and applications increase, the quality and reliability of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been more important. KAERI started a study to standardize the process and the rules of HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) which was known as a major contributor to the uncertainty of PSA. The study made progress as follows; assessing the level of quality of the HRAs in Korea and identifying the weaknesses of the HRAs, determining the requirements for developing a standard HRA method, developing the process and rules for quantifying human error probability. Since the risk-informed applications use the ASME PSA standard to ensure PSA quality, the standard HRA method was developed to meet the ASME HRA requirements with level of category II. The standard method was based on THERP and ASEP HRA that are widely used for conventional HRA. However, the method focuses on standardizing and specifying the analysis process, quantification rules and criteria to minimize the deviation of the analysis results caused by different analysts. Several HRA experts from different organizations in Korea participated in developing the standard method. Several case studies were interactively undertaken to verify the usability and applicability of the standard method.

  15. Development of A Standard Method for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan

    2005-12-15

    According as the demand of risk-informed regulation and applications increase, the quality and reliability of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been more important. KAERI started a study to standardize the process and the rules of HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) which was known as a major contributor to the uncertainty of PSA. The study made progress as follows; assessing the level of quality of the HRAs in Korea and identifying the weaknesses of the HRAs, determining the requirements for developing a standard HRA method, developing the process and rules for quantifying human error probability. Since the risk-informed applications use the ASME and ANS PSA standard to ensure PSA quality, the standard HRA method was developed to meet the ASME and ANS HRA requirements with level of category II. The standard method was based on THERP and ASEP HRA that are widely used for conventional HRA. However, the method focuses on standardizing and specifying the analysis process, quantification rules and criteria to minimize the deviation of the analysis results caused by different analysts. Several HRA experts from different organizations in Korea participated in developing the standard method. Several case studies were interactively undertaken to verify the usability and applicability of the standard method.

  16. A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

  17. ImageJ: A Free, Easy, and Reliable Method to Measure Leg Ulcers Using Digital Pictures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragón-Sánchez, Javier; Quintana-Marrero, Yurena; Aragón-Hernández, Cristina; Hernández-Herero, María José

    2017-12-01

    Wound measurement to document the healing course of chronic leg ulcers has an important role in the management of these patients. Digital cameras in smartphones are readily available and easy to use, and taking pictures of wounds is becoming a routine in specialized departments. Analyzing digital pictures with appropriate software provides clinicians a quick, clean, and easy-to-use tool for measuring wound area. A set of 25 digital pictures of plain foot and leg ulcers was the basis of this study. Photographs were taken placing a ruler next to the wound in parallel with the healthy skin with the iPhone 6S (Apple Inc, Cupertino, CA), which has a camera of 12 megapixels using the flash. The digital photographs were visualized with ImageJ 1.45s freeware (National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD; http://imagej.net/ImageJ ). Wound area measurement was carried out by 4 raters: head of the department, wound care nurse, physician, and medical student. We assessed intra- and interrater reliability using the interclass correlation coefficient. To determine intraobserver reliability, 2 of the raters repeated the measurement of the set 1 week after the first reading. The interrater model displayed an interclass correlation coefficient of 0.99 with 95% confidence interval of 0.999 to 1.000, showing excellent reliability. The intrarater model of both examiners showed excellent reliability. In conclusion, analyzing digital images of leg ulcers with ImageJ estimates wound area with excellent reliability. This method provides a free, rapid, and accurate way to measure wounds and could routinely be used to document wound healing in daily clinical practice.

  18. Reliability and Validity of 3 Methods of Assessing Orthopedic Resident Skill in Shoulder Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Johnathan A; Dattilo, Jonathan R; Srikumaran, Uma; Zikria, Bashir A; Jain, Amit; LaPorte, Dawn M

    Traditional measures for evaluating resident surgical technical skills (e.g., case logs) assess operative volume but not level of surgical proficiency. Our goal was to compare the reliability and validity of 3 tools for measuring surgical skill among orthopedic residents when performing 3 open surgical approaches to the shoulder. A total of 23 residents at different stages of their surgical training were tested for technical skill pertaining to 3 shoulder surgical approaches using the following measures: Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS) checklists, the Global Rating Scale (GRS), and a final pass/fail assessment determined by 3 upper extremity surgeons. Adverse events were recorded. The Cronbach α coefficient was used to assess reliability of the OSATS checklists and GRS scores. Interrater reliability was calculated with intraclass correlation coefficients. Correlations among OSATS checklist scores, GRS scores, and pass/fail assessment were calculated with Spearman ρ. Validity of OSATS checklists was determined using analysis of variance with postgraduate year (PGY) as a between-subjects factor. Significance was set at p shoulder approaches. Checklist scores showed superior interrater reliability compared with GRS and subjective pass/fail measurements. GRS scores were positively correlated across training years. The incidence of adverse events was significantly higher among PGY-1 and PGY-2 residents compared with more experienced residents. OSATS checklists are a valid and reliable assessment of technical skills across 3 surgical shoulder approaches. However, checklist scores do not measure quality of technique. Documenting adverse events is necessary to assess quality of technique and ultimate pass/fail status. Multiple methods of assessing surgical skill should be considered when evaluating orthopedic resident surgical performance. Copyright © 2016 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  19. Simple, reliable, and nondestructive method for the measurement of vacuum pressure without specialized equipment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Jin-Peng; Ji, Zhong-Hua; Zhao, Yan-Ting; Chang, Xue-Fang; Xiao, Lian-Tuan; Jia, Suo-Tang

    2013-09-01

    We present a simple, reliable, and nondestructive method for the measurement of vacuum pressure in a magneto-optical trap. The vacuum pressure is verified to be proportional to the collision rate constant between cold atoms and the background gas with a coefficient k, which can be calculated by means of the simple ideal gas law. The rate constant for loss due to collisions with all background gases can be derived from the total collision loss rate by a series of loading curves of cold atoms under different trapping laser intensities. The presented method is also applicable for other cold atomic systems and meets the miniaturization requirement of commercial applications.

  20. Features of an advanced human reliability analysis method, AGAPE-ET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dea; Park, Jin Kyun

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the main features of an advanced human reliability analysis (HRA) method, AGAPE-ET. It has the capabilities to deal with the diagnosis failures and the errors of commission (EOC), which have not been normally treated in the conventional HRAs. For the analysis of the potential for diagnosis failures, an analysis framework, which is called the misdiagnosis tree analysis (MDTA), and a taxonomy of the misdiagnosis causes with appropriate quantification schemes are provided. For the identification of the EOC events from the misdiagnosis, some procedural guidance is given. An example of the application of the method is also provided

  1. Features of an advanced human reliability analysis method, AGAPE-ET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dea; Park, Jin Kyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-11-15

    This paper presents the main features of an advanced human reliability analysis (HRA) method, AGAPE-ET. It has the capabilities to deal with the diagnosis failures and the errors of commission (EOC), which have not been normally treated in the conventional HRAs. For the analysis of the potential for diagnosis failures, an analysis framework, which is called the misdiagnosis tree analysis (MDTA), and a taxonomy of the misdiagnosis causes with appropriate quantification schemes are provided. For the identification of the EOC events from the misdiagnosis, some procedural guidance is given. An example of the application of the method is also provided.

  2. Reliability and applications of statistical methods based on oligonucleotide frequencies in bacterial and archaeal genomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohlin, J; Skjerve, E; Ussery, David

    2008-01-01

    with here are mainly used to examine similarities between archaeal and bacterial DNA from different genomes. These methods compare observed genomic frequencies of fixed-sized oligonucleotides with expected values, which can be determined by genomic nucleotide content, smaller oligonucleotide frequencies......, or be based on specific statistical distributions. Advantages with these statistical methods include measurements of phylogenetic relationship with relatively small pieces of DNA sampled from almost anywhere within genomes, detection of foreign/conserved DNA, and homology searches. Our aim was to explore...... the reliability and best suited applications for some popular methods, which include relative oligonucleotide frequencies (ROF), di- to hexanucleotide zero'th order Markov methods (ZOM) and 2.order Markov chain Method (MCM). Tests were performed on distant homology searches with large DNA sequences, detection...

  3. Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model: a human reliability analysis tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.

    1985-01-01

    The Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model is a computerized, stochastic, task-oriented human behavioral model developed to provide estimates of nuclear power plant (NPP) maintenance team performance measures. It is capable of addressing person-machine, person-environment, and person-person relationships, and accounts for interdependencies that exist between the subelements that make up the maintenance task of interest. The primary measures of performance estimated by MAPPS are: (1) the probability of successfully completing the task of interest; and (2) the task duration time. MAPPS also estimates a host of other performance indices, including the probability of an undetected error, identification of the most- and least-likely error-prone subelements, and maintenance team stress profiles during task execution. The MAPPS model was subjected to a number of evaluation efforts that focused upon its practicality, acceptability, usefulness, and validity. Methods used for these efforts included a case method approach, consensus estimation, and comparison with observed task performance measures at a NPP. Favorable results, such as close agreement between task duration times for two tasks observed in the field (67.0 and 119.8 minutes, respectively), and estimates by MAPPS (72.0 and 124.0 minutes, respectively) enhance the confidence in the future use of MAPPS. 8 refs., 1 fig

  4. Comparing Pre- and Post-Operative Fontan Hemodynamic Simulations: Implications for the Reliability of Surgical Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haggerty, Christopher M.; de Zélicourt, Diane A.; Restrepo, Maria; Rossignac, Jarek; Spray, Thomas L.; Kanter, Kirk R.; Fogel, Mark A.; Yoganathan, Ajit P.

    2012-01-01

    Background Virtual modeling of cardiothoracic surgery is a new paradigm that allows for systematic exploration of various operative strategies and uses engineering principles to predict the optimal patient-specific plan. This study investigates the predictive accuracy of such methods for the surgical palliation of single ventricle heart defects. Methods Computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based surgical planning was used to model the Fontan procedure for four patients prior to surgery. The objective for each was to identify the operative strategy that best distributed hepatic blood flow to the pulmonary arteries. Post-operative magnetic resonance data were acquired to compare (via CFD) the post-operative hemodynamics with predictions. Results Despite variations in physiologic boundary conditions (e.g., cardiac output, venous flows) and the exact geometry of the surgical baffle, sufficient agreement was observed with respect to hepatic flow distribution (90% confidence interval-14 ± 4.3% difference). There was also good agreement of flow-normalized energetic efficiency predictions (19 ± 4.8% error). Conclusions The hemodynamic outcomes of prospective patient-specific surgical planning of the Fontan procedure are described for the first time with good quantitative comparisons between preoperatively predicted and postoperative simulations. These results demonstrate that surgical planning can be a useful tool for single ventricle cardiothoracic surgery with the ability to deliver significant clinical impact. PMID:22777126

  5. Between-day reliability of a method for non-invasive estimation of muscle composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simunič, Boštjan

    2012-08-01

    Tensiomyography is a method for valid and non-invasive estimation of skeletal muscle fibre type composition. The validity of selected temporal tensiomyographic measures has been well established recently; there is, however, no evidence regarding the method's between-day reliability. Therefore it is the aim of this paper to establish the between-day repeatability of tensiomyographic measures in three skeletal muscles. For three consecutive days, 10 healthy male volunteers (mean±SD: age 24.6 ± 3.0 years; height 177.9 ± 3.9 cm; weight 72.4 ± 5.2 kg) were examined in a supine position. Four temporal measures (delay, contraction, sustain, and half-relaxation time) and maximal amplitude were extracted from the displacement-time tensiomyogram. A reliability analysis was performed with calculations of bias, random error, coefficient of variation (CV), standard error of measurement, and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) with a 95% confidence interval. An analysis of ICC demonstrated excellent agreement (ICC were over 0.94 in 14 out of 15 tested parameters). However, lower CV was observed in half-relaxation time, presumably because of the specifics of the parameter definition itself. These data indicate that for the three muscles tested, tensiomyographic measurements were reproducible across consecutive test days. Furthermore, we indicated the most possible origin of the lowest reliability detected in half-relaxation time. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Cervical vertebral maturation method and mandibular growth peak: a longitudinal study of diagnostic reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perinetti, Giuseppe; Primozic, Jasmina; Sharma, Bhavna; Cioffi, Iacopo; Contardo, Luca

    2018-03-28

    The capability of the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) method in the identification of the mandibular growth peak on an individual basis remains undetermined. The diagnostic reliability of the six-stage CVM method in the identification of the mandibular growth peak was thus investigated. From the files of the Oregon and Burlington Growth Studies (data obtained between early 1950s and middle 1970s), 50 subjects (26 females, 24 males) with at least seven annual lateral cephalograms taken from 9 to 16 years were identified. Cervical vertebral maturation was assessed according to the CVM code staging system, and mandibular growth was defined as annual increments in Co-Gn distance. A diagnostic reliability analysis was carried out to establish the capability of the circumpubertal CVM stages 2, 3, and 4 in the identification of the imminent mandibular growth peak. Variable durations of each of the CVM stages 2, 3, and 4 were seen. The overall diagnostic accuracy values for the CVM stages 2, 3, and 4 were 0.70, 0.76, and 0.77, respectively. These low values appeared to be due to false positive cases. Secular trends in conjunction with the use of a discrete staging system. In most of the Burlington Growth Study sample, the lateral head film at age 15 was missing. None of the CVM stages 2, 3, and 4 reached a satisfactorily diagnostic reliability in the identification of imminent mandibular growth peak.

  7. Machine Maintenance Scheduling with Reliability Engineering Method and Maintenance Value Stream Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, N.; Nasution, A. H.

    2018-02-01

    Corrective maintenance i.e replacing or repairing the machine component after machine break down always done in a manufacturing company. It causes the production process must be stopped. Production time will decrease due to the maintenance team must replace or repair the damage machine component. This paper proposes a preventive maintenance’s schedule for a critical component of a critical machine of an crude palm oil and kernel company due to increase maintenance efficiency. The Reliability Engineering & Maintenance Value Stream Mapping is used as a method and a tool to analize the reliability of the component and reduce the wastage in any process by segregating value added and non value added activities.

  8. A review of the evolution of human reliability analysis methods at nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Lécio N. de; Santos, Isaac José A. Luquetti dos; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.

    2017-01-01

    This paper reviews the status of researches on the application of human reliability analysis methods at nuclear industry and its evolution along the years. Human reliability analysis (HRA) is one of the elements used in Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) and is performed as part of PSAs to quantify the likelihood that people will fail to take action, such as errors of omission and errors of commission. Although HRA may be used at lots of areas, the focus of this paper is to review the applicability of HRA methods along the years at nuclear industry, especially in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). An electronic search on CAPES Portal of Journals (A bibliographic database) was performed. This literature review covers original papers published since the first generation of HRA methods until the ones published on March 2017. A total of 94 papers were retrieved by the initial search and 13 were selected to be fully reviewed and for data extraction after the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, quality and suitability evaluation according to applicability at nuclear industry. Results point out that the methods from first generation are more used in practice than methods from second generation. This occurs because it is more concentrated towards quantification, in terms of success or failure of human action what make them useful for quantitative risk assessment to PSA. Although the second generation considers context and error of commission in human error prediction, they are not wider used in practice at nuclear industry to PSA. (author)

  9. Study on Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) Quantification Method in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ar Ryum; Jang, Inseok Jang; Seong, Poong Hyun; Park, Jinkyun; Kim, Jong Hyun

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of HRA implementation is 1) to achieve the human factor engineering (HFE) design goal of providing operator interfaces that will minimize personnel errors and 2) to conduct an integrated activity to support probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For these purposes, various HRA methods have been developed such as technique for human error rate prediction (THERP), simplified plant analysis risk human reliability assessment (SPAR-H), cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and so on. In performing HRA, such conditions that influence human performances have been represented via several context factors called performance shaping factors (PSFs). PSFs are aspects of the human's individual characteristics, environment, organization, or task that specifically decrements or improves human performance, thus respectively increasing or decreasing the likelihood of human errors. Most HRA methods evaluate the weightings of PSFs by expert judgment and explicit guidance for evaluating the weighting is not provided. It has been widely known that the performance of the human operator is one of the critical factors to determine the safe operation of NPPs. HRA methods have been developed to identify the possibility and mechanism of human errors. In performing HRA methods, the effect of PSFs which may increase or decrease human error should be investigated. However, the effect of PSFs were estimated by expert judgment so far. Accordingly, in order to estimate the effect of PSFs objectively, the quantitative framework to estimate PSFs by using PSF profiles is introduced in this paper

  10. A review of the evolution of human reliability analysis methods at nuclear industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Lécio N. de; Santos, Isaac José A. Luquetti dos; Carvalho, Paulo V.R., E-mail: lecionoliveira@gmail.com, E-mail: luquetti@ien.gov.br, E-mail: paulov@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-11-01

    This paper reviews the status of researches on the application of human reliability analysis methods at nuclear industry and its evolution along the years. Human reliability analysis (HRA) is one of the elements used in Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) and is performed as part of PSAs to quantify the likelihood that people will fail to take action, such as errors of omission and errors of commission. Although HRA may be used at lots of areas, the focus of this paper is to review the applicability of HRA methods along the years at nuclear industry, especially in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). An electronic search on CAPES Portal of Journals (A bibliographic database) was performed. This literature review covers original papers published since the first generation of HRA methods until the ones published on March 2017. A total of 94 papers were retrieved by the initial search and 13 were selected to be fully reviewed and for data extraction after the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, quality and suitability evaluation according to applicability at nuclear industry. Results point out that the methods from first generation are more used in practice than methods from second generation. This occurs because it is more concentrated towards quantification, in terms of success or failure of human action what make them useful for quantitative risk assessment to PSA. Although the second generation considers context and error of commission in human error prediction, they are not wider used in practice at nuclear industry to PSA. (author)

  11. Interactive methods for exploring particle simulation data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Co, Christopher S.; Friedman, Alex; Grote, David P.; Vay, Jean-Luc; Bethel, E. Wes; Joy, Kenneth I.

    2004-05-01

    In this work, we visualize high-dimensional particle simulation data using a suite of scatter plot-based visualizations coupled with interactive selection tools. We use traditional 2D and 3D projection scatter plots as well as a novel oriented disk rendering style to convey various information about the data. Interactive selection tools allow physicists to manually classify ''interesting'' sets of particles that are highlighted across multiple, linked views of the data. The power of our application is the ability to correspond new visual representations of the simulation data with traditional, well understood visualizations. This approach supports the interactive exploration of the high-dimensional space while promoting discovery of new particle behavior.

  12. Hospital Registration Process Reengineering Using Simulation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Su

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available With increasing competition, many healthcare organizations have undergone tremendous reform in the last decade aiming to increase efficiency, decrease waste, and reshape the way that care is delivered. This study focuses on the operational efficiency improvement of hospital’s registration process. The operational efficiency related factors including the service process, queue strategy, and queue parameters were explored systematically and illustrated with a case study. Guided by the principle of business process reengineering (BPR, a simulation approach was employed for process redesign and performance optimization. As a result, the queue strategy is changed from multiple queues and multiple servers to single queue and multiple servers with a prepare queue. Furthermore, through a series of simulation experiments, the length of the prepare queue and the corresponding registration process efficiency was quantitatively evaluated and optimized.

  13. Numerical simulation methods for electron and ion optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munro, Eric

    2011-01-01

    This paper summarizes currently used techniques for simulation and computer-aided design in electron and ion beam optics. Topics covered include: field computation, methods for computing optical properties (including Paraxial Rays and Aberration Integrals, Differential Algebra and Direct Ray Tracing), simulation of Coulomb interactions, space charge effects in electron and ion sources, tolerancing, wave optical simulations and optimization. Simulation examples are presented for multipole aberration correctors, Wien filter monochromators, imaging energy filters, magnetic prisms, general curved axis systems and electron mirrors.

  14. METHODS OF IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF THE CONTROL SYSTEM TRACTION POWER SUPPLY OF ELECTRIC TRANSPORT BASED ON AN EXPERT INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. O. Matusevych

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The author proposed the numerous methods of solving the multi-criterion task – increasing of reliability of control system on the basis of expert information. The information, which allows choosing thoughtfully the method of reliability increasing for a control system of electric transport, is considered.

  15. Reliability Analysis of a Composite Wind Turbine Blade Section Using the Model Correction Factor Method: Numerical Study and Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Berggreen, Christian

    2013-01-01

    by the composite failure criteria. Each failure mode has been considered in a separate component reliability analysis, followed by a system analysis which gives the total probability of failure of the structure. The Model Correction Factor method used in connection with FORM (First-Order Reliability Method) proved...

  16. Reliability and safety engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

    2016-01-01

    Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

  17. Comparison of a Material Point Method and a Galerkin Meshfree Method for the Simulation of Cohesive-Frictional Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Iaconeta

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The simulation of large deformation problems, involving complex history-dependent constitutive laws, is of paramount importance in several engineering fields. Particular attention has to be paid to the choice of a suitable numerical technique such that reliable results can be obtained. In this paper, a Material Point Method (MPM and a Galerkin Meshfree Method (GMM are presented and verified against classical benchmarks in solid mechanics. The aim is to demonstrate the good behavior of the methods in the simulation of cohesive-frictional materials, both in static and dynamic regimes and in problems dealing with large deformations. The vast majority of MPM techniques in the literatrue are based on some sort of explicit time integration. The techniques proposed in the current work, on the contrary, are based on implicit approaches, which can also be easily adapted to the simulation of static cases. The two methods are presented so as to highlight the similarities to rather than the differences from “standard” Updated Lagrangian (UL approaches commonly employed by the Finite Elements (FE community. Although both methods are able to give a good prediction, it is observed that, under very large deformation of the medium, GMM lacks robustness due to its meshfree natrue, which makes the definition of the meshless shape functions more difficult and expensive than in MPM. On the other hand, the mesh-based MPM is demonstrated to be more robust and reliable for extremely large deformation cases.

  18. Reliability of the input admittance of bowed-string instruments measured by the hammer method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ailin; Woodhouse, Jim

    2014-12-01

    The input admittance at the bridge, measured by hammer testing, is often regarded as the most useful and convenient measurement of the vibrational behavior of a bowed string instrument. However, this method has been questioned, due especially to differences between human bowing and hammer impact. The goal of the research presented here is to investigate the reliability and accuracy of this classic hammer method. Experimental studies were carried out on cellos, with three different driving conditions and three different boundary conditions. Results suggest that there is nothing fundamentally different about the hammer method, compared to other kinds of excitation. The third series of experiments offers an opportunity to explore the difference between the input admittance measuring from one bridge corner to another and that of single strings. The classic measurement is found to give a reasonable approximation to that of all four strings. Some possible differences between the hammer method and normal bowing and implications of the acoustical results are also discussed.

  19. Study on Feasibility of Applying Function Approximation Moment Method to Achieve Reliability-Based Design Optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huh, Jae Sung; Kwak, Byung Man

    2011-01-01

    Robust optimization or reliability-based design optimization are some of the methodologies that are employed to take into account the uncertainties of a system at the design stage. For applying such methodologies to solve industrial problems, accurate and efficient methods for estimating statistical moments and failure probability are required, and further, the results of sensitivity analysis, which is needed for searching direction during the optimization process, should also be accurate. The aim of this study is to employ the function approximation moment method into the sensitivity analysis formulation, which is expressed as an integral form, to verify the accuracy of the sensitivity results, and to solve a typical problem of reliability-based design optimization. These results are compared with those of other moment methods, and the feasibility of the function approximation moment method is verified. The sensitivity analysis formula with integral form is the efficient formulation for evaluating sensitivity because any additional function calculation is not needed provided the failure probability or statistical moments are calculated

  20. GNSS Single Frequency, Single Epoch Reliable Attitude Determination Method with Baseline Vector Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ang Gong

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available For Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS single frequency, single epoch attitude determination, this paper proposes a new reliable method with baseline vector constraint. First, prior knowledge of baseline length, heading, and pitch obtained from other navigation equipment or sensors are used to reconstruct objective function rigorously. Then, searching strategy is improved. It substitutes gradually Enlarged ellipsoidal search space for non-ellipsoidal search space to ensure correct ambiguity candidates are within it and make the searching process directly be carried out by least squares ambiguity decorrelation algorithm (LAMBDA method. For all vector candidates, some ones are further eliminated by derived approximate inequality, which accelerates the searching process. Experimental results show that compared to traditional method with only baseline length constraint, this new method can utilize a priori baseline three-dimensional knowledge to fix ambiguity reliably and achieve a high success rate. Experimental tests also verify it is not very sensitive to baseline vector error and can perform robustly when angular error is not great.

  1. Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

    2012-01-01

    Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

  2. Validity and reliability of a method for assessment of cervical vertebral maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiao-Guang; Lin, Jiuxiang; Jiang, Jiu-Hui; Wang, Qingzhu; Ng, Sut Hong

    2012-03-01

    To evaluate the validity and reliability of the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) method with a longitudinal sample. Eighty-six cephalograms from 18 subjects (5 males and 13 females) were selected from the longitudinal database. Total mandibular length was measured on each film; an increased rate served as the gold standard in examination of the validity of the CVM method. Eleven orthodontists, after receiving intensive training in the CVM method, evaluated all films twice. Kendall's W and the weighted kappa statistic were employed. Kendall's W values were higher than 0.8 at both times, indicating strong interobserver reproducibility, but interobserver agreement was documented twice at less than 50%. A wide range of intraobserver agreement was noted (40.7%-79.1%), and substantial intraobserver reproducibility was proved by kappa values (0.53-0.86). With regard to validity, moderate agreement was reported between the gold standard and observer staging at the initial time (kappa values 0.44-0.61). However, agreement seemed to be unacceptable for clinical use, especially in cervical stage 3 (26.8%). Even though the validity and reliability of the CVM method proved statistically acceptable, we suggest that many other growth indicators should be taken into consideration in evaluating adolescent skeletal maturation.

  3. Benchmarking HRA methods against different NPP simulator data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petkov, Gueorgui; Filipov, Kalin; Velev, Vladimir; Grigorov, Alexander; Popov, Dimiter; Lazarov, Lazar; Stoichev, Kosta

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents both international and Bulgarian experience in assessing HRA methods, underlying models approaches for their validation and verification by benchmarking HRA methods against different NPP simulator data. The organization, status, methodology and outlooks of the studies are described

  4. Math-Based Simulation Tools and Methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Arepally, Sudhakar

    2007-01-01

    ...: HMMWV 30-mph Rollover Test, Soldier Gear Effects, Occupant Performance in Blast Effects, Anthropomorphic Test Device, Human Models, Rigid Body Modeling, Finite Element Methods, Injury Criteria...

  5. Particle-transport simulation with the Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, L.L.; Cashwell, E.D.

    1975-01-01

    Attention is focused on the application of the Monte Carlo method to particle transport problems, with emphasis on neutron and photon transport. Topics covered include sampling methods, mathematical prescriptions for simulating particle transport, mechanics of simulating particle transport, neutron transport, and photon transport. A literature survey of 204 references is included. (GMT)

  6. Reliability-based decision making for selection of ready-mix concrete supply using stochastic superiority and inferiority ranking method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chou, Jui-Sheng; Ongkowijoyo, Citra Satria

    2015-01-01

    Corporate competitiveness is heavily influenced by the information acquired, processed, utilized and transferred by professional staff involved in the supply chain. This paper develops a decision aid for selecting on-site ready-mix concrete (RMC) unloading type in decision making situations involving multiple stakeholders and evaluation criteria. The uncertainty of criteria weights set by expert judgment can be transformed in random ways based on the probabilistic virtual-scale method within a prioritization matrix. The ranking is performed by grey relational grade systems considering stochastic criteria weight based on individual preference. Application of the decision aiding model in actual RMC case confirms that the method provides a robust and effective tool for facilitating decision making under uncertainty. - Highlights: • This study models decision aiding method to assess ready-mix concrete unloading type. • Applying Monte Carlo simulation to virtual-scale method achieves a reliable process. • Individual preference ranking method enhances the quality of global decision making. • Robust stochastic superiority and inferiority ranking obtains reasonable results

  7. Real-time hybrid simulation using the convolution integral method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Jig; Christenson, Richard E; Wojtkiewicz, Steven F; Johnson, Erik A

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a real-time hybrid simulation method that will allow complex systems to be tested within the hybrid test framework by employing the convolution integral (CI) method. The proposed CI method is potentially transformative for real-time hybrid simulation. The CI method can allow real-time hybrid simulation to be conducted regardless of the size and complexity of the numerical model and for numerical stability to be ensured in the presence of high frequency responses in the simulation. This paper presents the general theory behind the proposed CI method and provides experimental verification of the proposed method by comparing the CI method to the current integration time-stepping (ITS) method. Real-time hybrid simulation is conducted in the Advanced Hazard Mitigation Laboratory at the University of Connecticut. A seismically excited two-story shear frame building with a magneto-rheological (MR) fluid damper is selected as the test structure to experimentally validate the proposed method. The building structure is numerically modeled and simulated, while the MR damper is physically tested. Real-time hybrid simulation using the proposed CI method is shown to provide accurate results

  8. Accounting for Model Uncertainties Using Reliability Methods - Application to Carbon Dioxide Geologic Sequestration System. Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mok, Chin Man; Doughty, Christine; Zhang, Keni; Pruess, Karsten; Kiureghian, Armen; Zhang, Miao; Kaback, Dawn

    2010-01-01

    A new computer code, CALRELTOUGH, which uses reliability methods to incorporate parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis into subsurface flow and transport models, was developed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. in collaboration with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and University of California at Berkeley. The CALREL reliability code was developed at the University of California at Berkely for geotechnical applications and the TOUGH family of codes was developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for subsurface flow and tranport applications. The integration of the two codes provides provides a new approach to deal with uncertainties in flow and transport modeling of the subsurface, such as those uncertainties associated with hydrogeology parameters, boundary conditions, and initial conditions of subsurface flow and transport using data from site characterization and monitoring for conditioning. The new code enables computation of the reliability of a system and the components that make up the system, instead of calculating the complete probability distributions of model predictions at all locations at all times. The new CALRELTOUGH code has tremendous potential to advance subsurface understanding for a variety of applications including subsurface energy storage, nuclear waste disposal, carbon sequestration, extraction of natural resources, and environmental remediation. The new code was tested on a carbon sequestration problem as part of the Phase I project. Phase iI was not awarded.

  9. Simulation of tunneling construction methods of the Cisumdawu toll road

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abduh, Muhamad; Sukardi, Sapto Nugroho; Ola, Muhammad Rusdian La; Ariesty, Anita; Wirahadikusumah, Reini D.

    2017-11-01

    Simulation can be used as a tool for planning and analysis of a construction method. Using simulation technique, a contractor could design optimally resources associated with a construction method and compare to other methods based on several criteria, such as productivity, waste, and cost. This paper discusses the use of simulation using Norwegian Method of Tunneling (NMT) for a 472-meter tunneling work in the Cisumdawu Toll Road project. Primary and secondary data were collected to provide useful information for simulation as well as problems that may be faced by the contractor. The method was modelled using the CYCLONE and then simulated using the WebCYCLONE. The simulation could show the duration of the project from the duration model of each work tasks which based on literature review, machine productivity, and several assumptions. The results of simulation could also show the total cost of the project that was modeled based on journal construction & building unit cost and online websites of local and international suppliers. The analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the method was conducted based on its, wastes, and cost. The simulation concluded the total cost of this operation is about Rp. 900,437,004,599 and the total duration of the tunneling operation is 653 days. The results of the simulation will be used for a recommendation to the contractor before the implementation of the already selected tunneling operation.

  10. Modeling and simulation of a controlled steam generator in the context of dynamic reliability using a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babykina, Génia; Brînzei, Nicolae; Aubry, Jean-François; Deleuze, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    The paper proposes a modeling framework to support Monte Carlo simulations of the behavior of a complex industrial system. The aim is to analyze the system dependability in the presence of random events, described by any type of probability distributions. Continuous dynamic evolutions of physical parameters are taken into account by a system of differential equations. Dynamic reliability is chosen as theoretical framework. Based on finite state automata theory, the formal model is built by parallel composition of elementary sub-models using a bottom-up approach. Considerations of a stochastic nature lead to a model called the Stochastic Hybrid Automaton. The Scilab/Scicos open source environment is used for implementation. The case study is carried out on an example of a steam generator of a nuclear power plant. The behavior of the system is studied by exploring its trajectories. Possible system trajectories are analyzed both empirically, using the results of Monte Carlo simulations, and analytically, using the formal system model. The obtained results are show to be relevant. The Stochastic Hybrid Automaton appears to be a suitable tool to address the dynamic reliability problem and to model real systems of high complexity; the bottom-up design provides precision and coherency of the system model. - Highlights: • A part of a nuclear power plant is modeled in the context of dynamic reliability. • Stochastic Hybrid Automaton is used as an input model for Monte Carlo simulations. • The model is formally built using a bottom-up approach. • The behavior of the system is analyzed empirically and analytically. • A formally built SHA shows to be a suitable tool to approach dynamic reliability.

  11. Interval sampling methods and measurement error: a computer simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, Oliver; Slaven, James; Taylor, Matthew A

    2014-01-01

    A simulation study was conducted to provide a more thorough account of measurement error associated with interval sampling methods. A computer program simulated the application of momentary time sampling, partial-interval recording, and whole-interval recording methods on target events randomly distributed across an observation period. The simulation yielded measures of error for multiple combinations of observation period, interval duration, event duration, and cumulative event duration. The simulations were conducted up to 100 times to yield measures of error variability. Although the present simulation confirmed some previously reported characteristics of interval sampling methods, it also revealed many new findings that pertain to each method's inherent strengths and weaknesses. The analysis and resulting error tables can help guide the selection of the most appropriate sampling method for observation-based behavioral assessments. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  12. Reliable lateral and vertical manipulations of a single Cu adatom on a Cu(111) surface with multi-atom apex tip: semiempirical and first-principles simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yiqun; Liu Qingwei; Zhang Peng; Wang Songyou; Li Yufen; Gan Fuxi; Zhuang Jun; Zhang Wenqing; Zhuang Min

    2008-01-01

    We study the reliability of the lateral manipulation of a single Cu adatom on a Cu(111) surface with single-atom, dimer and trimer apex tips using both semiempirical and first-principles simulations. The dependence of the manipulation reliability on tip height is investigated. For the single-atom apex tip the manipulation reliability increases monotonically with decreasing tip height. For the dimer and trimer apex tips the manipulation reliability is greatly improved compared to that for the single-atom apex tip over a certain tip-height range. Two kinds of mechanism are found responsible for this improvement. One is the so-called enhanced interaction mechanism in which the lateral tip-adatom interaction in the manipulation direction is improved. The other is the suspended atom mechanism in which the relative lateral trapping ability of the tip is improved due to the strong vertical attraction of the tip on the adatom. Both mechanisms occur in the manipulations with the trimer apex tip, while in those with the dimer apex tip only the former is effective. Moreover, we present a method to realize reversible vertical manipulation of a single atom on a Cu(111) surface with the trimer apex tip, based on its strong vertical and lateral attraction on the adatom

  13. Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgical Simulation Training Curriculum: Transfer Reliability and Maintenance of Skill Over Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, John C; Belmont, Philip J; Lanzi, Joseph; Martin, Kevin; Bader, Julia; Owens, Brett; Waterman, Brian R

    2015-01-01

    Surgical education is evolving as work hour constraints limit the exposure of residents to the operating room. Potential consequences may include erosion of resident education and decreased quality of patient care. Surgical simulation training has become a focus of study in an effort to counter these challenges. Previous studies have validated the use of arthroscopic surgical simulation programs both in vitro and in vivo. However, no study has examined if the gains made by residents after a simulation program are retained after a period away from training. In all, 17 orthopedic surgery residents were randomized into simulation or standard practice groups. All subjects were oriented to the arthroscopic simulator, a 14-point anatomic checklist, and Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool (ASSET). The experimental group received 1 hour of simulation training whereas the control group had no additional training. All subjects performed a recorded, diagnostic arthroscopy intraoperatively. These videos were scored by 2 blinded, fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons and outcome measures were compared within and between the groups. After 1 year in which neither group had exposure to surgical simulation training, all residents were retested intraoperatively and scored in the exact same fashion. Individual surgical case logs were reviewed and surgical case volume was documented. There was no difference between the 2 groups after initial simulation testing and there was no correlation between case volume and initial scores. After training, the simulation group improved as compared with baseline in mean ASSET (p = 0.023) and mean time to completion (p = 0.01). After 1 year, there was no difference between the groups in any outcome measurements. Although individual technical skills can be cultivated with surgical simulation training, these advancements can be lost without continued education. It is imperative that residency programs implement a simulation curriculum and

  14. The frontal method in hydrodynamics simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, R.A.

    1980-01-01

    The frontal solution method has proven to be an effective means of solving the matrix equations resulting from the application of the finite element method to a variety of problems. In this study, several versions of the frontal method were compared in efficiency for several hydrodynamics problems. Three basic modifications were shown to be of value: 1. Elimination of equations with boundary conditions beforehand, 2. Modification of the pivoting procedures to allow dynamic management of the equation size, and 3. Storage of the eliminated equations in a vector. These modifications are sufficiently general to be applied to other classes of problems. ?? 1980.

  15. A reliable method for reconstituting thymectomized, lethally irradiated guinea pigs with bone marrow cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terata, N.; Tanio, Y.; Zbar, B.

    1984-01-01

    The authors developed a reliable method for reconstituting thymectomized, lethally irradiated guinea pigs. Injection of 2.5-10 x 10 7 syngeneic bone marrow cells into adult thymectomized, lethally irradiated guinea pigs produced survival of 46-100% of treated animals. Gentamycin sulfate (5 mg/kg of body weight) for 10 days was required for optimal results. Acidified drinking water (pH 2.5) appeared to be required for optimal results. Thymectomized, lethally irradiated, bone marrow reconstituted ('B') guinea pigs had impaired ability to develop delayed cutaneous hypersensitivity to mycobacterial antigens and cutaneous basophil hypersensitivity to keyhole limpet hemocyanin; proliferative responses to phytohemagglutinin were impaired. (Auth.)

  16. Radiologic identification of disaster victims: A simple and reliable method using CT of the paranasal sinuses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruder, Thomas D.; Kraehenbuehl, Markus; Gotsmy, Walther F.; Mathier, Sandra; Ebert, Lars C.; Thali, Michael J.; Hatch, Gary M.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To assess the reliability of radiologic identification using visual comparison of ante and post mortem paranasal sinus computed tomography (CT). Subjects and methods: The study was approved by the responsible justice department and university ethics committee. Four blinded readers with varying radiological experience separately compared 100 post mortem to 25 ante mortem head CTs with the goal to identify as many matching pairs as possible (out of 23 possible matches). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated for all readers. The chi-square test was applied to establish if there was significant difference in sensitivity between radiologists and non-radiologists. Results: For all readers, sensitivity was 83.7%, specificity was 100.0%, negative predictive value (NPV) was 95.4%, positive predictive value (PPV) was 100.0%, and accuracy was 96.3%. For radiologists, sensitivity was 97.8%, NPV was 99.4%, and accuracy was 99.5%. For non-radiologists, average sensitivity was 69.6%, negative predictive value (NPV) was 91.7%, and accuracy was 93.0%. Radiologists achieved a significantly higher sensitivity (p < 0.01) than non-radiologists. Conclusions: Visual comparison of ante mortem and post mortem CT of the head is a robust and reliable method for identifying unknown decedents, particularly in regard to positive matches. The sensitivity and NPV of the method depend on the reader's experience.

  17. How to Map Theory: Reliable Methods Are Fruitless Without Rigorous Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Kurt

    2017-09-01

    Good science requires both reliable methods and rigorous theory. Theory allows us to build a unified structure of knowledge, to connect the dots of individual studies and reveal the bigger picture. Some have criticized the proliferation of pet "Theories," but generic "theory" is essential to healthy science, because questions of theory are ultimately those of validity. Although reliable methods and rigorous theory are synergistic, Action Identification suggests psychological tension between them: The more we focus on methodological details, the less we notice the broader connections. Therefore, psychology needs to supplement training in methods (how to design studies and analyze data) with training in theory (how to connect studies and synthesize ideas). This article provides a technique for visually outlining theory: theory mapping. Theory mapping contains five elements, which are illustrated with moral judgment and with cars. Also included are 15 additional theory maps provided by experts in emotion, culture, priming, power, stress, ideology, morality, marketing, decision-making, and more (see all at theorymaps.org ). Theory mapping provides both precision and synthesis, which helps to resolve arguments, prevent redundancies, assess the theoretical contribution of papers, and evaluate the likelihood of surprising effects.

  18. Accuracy and Reliability of the Klales et al. (2012) Morphoscopic Pelvic Sexing Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesciotto, Kate M; Doershuk, Lily J

    2018-01-01

    Klales et al. (2012) devised an ordinal scoring system for the morphoscopic pelvic traits described by Phenice (1969) and used for sex estimation of skeletal remains. The aim of this study was to test the accuracy and reliability of the Klales method using a large sample from the Hamann-Todd collection (n = 279). Two observers were blinded to sex, ancestry, and age and used the Klales et al. method to estimate the sex of each individual. Sex was correctly estimated for females with over 95% accuracy; however, the male allocation accuracy was approximately 50%. Weighted Cohen's kappa and intraclass correlation coefficient analysis for evaluating intra- and interobserver error showed moderate to substantial agreement for all traits. Although each trait can be reliably scored using the Klales method, low accuracy rates and high sex bias indicate better trait descriptions and visual guides are necessary to more accurately reflect the range of morphological variation. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  19. The Global Optimal Algorithm of Reliable Path Finding Problem Based on Backtracking Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Shen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing interest in finding a global optimal path in transportation networks particularly when the network suffers from unexpected disturbance. This paper studies the problem of finding a global optimal path to guarantee a given probability of arriving on time in a network with uncertainty, in which the travel time is stochastic instead of deterministic. Traditional path finding methods based on least expected travel time cannot capture the network user’s risk-taking behaviors in path finding. To overcome such limitation, the reliable path finding algorithms have been proposed but the convergence of global optimum is seldom addressed in the literature. This paper integrates the K-shortest path algorithm into Backtracking method to propose a new path finding algorithm under uncertainty. The global optimum of the proposed method can be guaranteed. Numerical examples are conducted to demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

  20. Response and reliability analysis of nonlinear uncertain dynamical structures by the probability density evolution method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Peng, Yongbo; Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri

    2016-01-01

    The paper deals with the response and reliability analysis of hysteretic or geometric nonlinear uncertain dynamical systems of arbitrary dimensionality driven by stochastic processes. The approach is based on the probability density evolution method proposed by Li and Chen (Stochastic dynamics...... of structures, 1st edn. Wiley, London, 2009; Probab Eng Mech 20(1):33–44, 2005), which circumvents the dimensional curse of traditional methods for the determination of non-stationary probability densities based on Markov process assumptions and the numerical solution of the related Fokker–Planck and Kolmogorov......–Feller equations. The main obstacle of the method is that a multi-dimensional convolution integral needs to be carried out over the sample space of a set of basic random variables, for which reason the number of these need to be relatively low. In order to handle this problem an approach is suggested, which...

  1. A Novel Evaluation Method for Building Construction Project Based on Integrated Information Entropy with Reliability Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-ping Bai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

  2. Calculation of noninformative prior of reliability parameter and initiating event frequency with Jeffreys method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Jie; Zhang Binbin

    2013-01-01

    In the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants, there are few historical records on some initiating event frequencies or component failures in industry. In order to determine the noninformative priors of such reliability parameters and initiating event frequencies, the Jeffreys method in Bayesian statistics was employed. The mathematical mechanism of the Jeffreys prior and the simplified constrained noninformative distribution (SCNID) were elaborated in this paper. The Jeffreys noninformative formulas and the credible intervals of the Gamma-Poisson and Beta-Binomial models were introduced. As an example, the small break loss-of-coolant accident (SLOCA) was employed to show the application of the Jeffreys prior in determining an initiating event frequency. The result shows that the Jeffreys method is an effective method for noninformative prior calculation. (authors)

  3. A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Weixian

    2000-03-01

    Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

  4. A novel evaluation method for building construction project based on integrated information entropy with reliability theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei

    2013-01-01

    Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

  5. Reliability Quantification Method for Safety Critical Software Based on a Finite Test Set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Sung Min; Kim, Hee Eun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Lee, Seung Jun

    2014-01-01

    Software inside of digitalized system have very important role because it may cause irreversible consequence and affect the whole system as common cause failure. However, test-based reliability quantification method for some safety critical software has limitations caused by difficulties in developing input sets as a form of trajectory which is series of successive values of variables. To address these limitations, this study proposed another method which conduct the test using combination of single values of variables. To substitute the trajectory form of input using combination of variables, the possible range of each variable should be identified. For this purpose, assigned range of each variable, logical relations between variables, plant dynamics under certain situation, and characteristics of obtaining information of digital device are considered. A feasibility of the proposed method was confirmed through an application to the Reactor Protection System (RPS) software trip logic

  6. Numerical methods for reliability and safety assessment multiscale and multiphysics systems

    CERN Document Server

    Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    This book offers unique insight on structural safety and reliability by combining computational methods that address multiphysics problems, involving multiple equations describing different physical phenomena, and multiscale problems, involving discrete sub-problems that together  describe important aspects of a system at multiple scales. The book examines a range of engineering domains and problems using dynamic analysis, nonlinear methods, error estimation, finite element analysis, and other computational techniques. This book also: ·       Introduces novel numerical methods ·       Illustrates new practical applications ·       Examines recent engineering applications ·       Presents up-to-date theoretical results ·       Offers perspective relevant to a wide audience, including teaching faculty/graduate students, researchers, and practicing engineers

  7. Approximation of the Monte Carlo Sampling Method for Reliability Analysis of Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Shadab Far

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Structural load types, on the one hand, and structural capacity to withstand these loads, on the other hand, are of a probabilistic nature as they cannot be calculated and presented in a fully deterministic way. As such, the past few decades have witnessed the development of numerous probabilistic approaches towards the analysis and design of structures. Among the conventional methods used to assess structural reliability, the Monte Carlo sampling method has proved to be very convenient and efficient. However, it does suffer from certain disadvantages, the biggest one being the requirement of a very large number of samples to handle small probabilities, leading to a high computational cost. In this paper, a simple algorithm was proposed to estimate low failure probabilities using a small number of samples in conjunction with the Monte Carlo method. This revised approach was then presented in a step-by-step flowchart, for the purpose of easy programming and implementation.

  8. Hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Wael, Annelies; De Backer, Annick; Jones, Lewys; Nellist, Peter D; Van Aert, Sandra

    2017-06-01

    A hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF STEM) images of monotype crystalline nanostructures is presented. Different atom-counting methods already exist for model-like systems. However, the increasing relevance of radiation damage in the study of nanostructures demands a method that allows atom-counting from low dose images with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, the hybrid method directly includes prior knowledge from image simulations into the existing statistics-based method for atom-counting, and accounts in this manner for possible discrepancies between actual and simulated experimental conditions. It is shown by means of simulations and experiments that this hybrid method outperforms the statistics-based method, especially for low electron doses and small nanoparticles. The analysis of a simulated low dose image of a small nanoparticle suggests that this method allows for far more reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. You Don't Need Richards'... A New General 1-D Vadose Zone Solution Method that is Reliable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, F. L.; Lai, W.; Zhu, J.; Steinke, R. C.; Talbot, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic modelers and mathematicians have strived to improve 1-D Richards' equation (RE) solution reliability for predicting vadose zone fluxes. Despite advances in computing power and the numerical solution of partial differential equations since Richards first published the RE in 1931, the solution remains unreliable. That is to say that there is no guarantee that for a particular set of soil constitutive relations, moisture profile conditions, or forcing input that a numerical RE solver will converge to an answer. This risk of non-convergence renders prohibitive the use of RE solvers in hydrological models that need perhaps millions of infiltration solutions. In lieu of using unreliable numerical RE solutions, researchers have developed a wide array of approximate solutions that more-or-less mimic the behavior of the RE, with some notable deficiencies such as parameter insensitivity or divergence over time. The improved Talbot-Ogden (T-O) finite water-content scheme was shown by Ogden et al. (2015) to be an extremely good approximation of the 1-D RE solution, with a difference in cumulative infiltration of only 0.2 percent over an 8 month simulation comparing the improved T-O scheme with a RE numerical solver. The reason is that the newly-derived fundamental flow equation that underpins the improved T-O method is equivalent to the RE minus a term that is equal to the diffusive flux divided by the slope of the wetting front. Because the diffusive flux has zero mean, this term is not important in calculating the mean flux. The wetting front slope is near infinite (sharp) in coarser soils that produce more significant hydrological interactions between surface and ground waters, which also makes this missing term 1) disappear in the limit, and, 2) create stability challenges for the numerical solution of RE. The improved T-O method is a replacement for the 1-D RE in soils that can be simulated as homogeneous layers, where the user is willing to neglect the effects

  10. Multiple time-scale methods in particle simulations of plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.I.

    1985-01-01

    This paper surveys recent advances in the application of multiple time-scale methods to particle simulation of collective phenomena in plasmas. These methods dramatically improve the efficiency of simulating low-frequency kinetic behavior by allowing the use of a large timestep, while retaining accuracy. The numerical schemes surveyed provide selective damping of unwanted high-frequency waves and preserve numerical stability in a variety of physics models: electrostatic, magneto-inductive, Darwin and fully electromagnetic. The paper reviews hybrid simulation models, the implicitmoment-equation method, the direct implicit method, orbit averaging, and subcycling

  11. Time-dependent Reliability of Dynamic Systems using Subset Simulation with Splitting over a Series of Correlated Time Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    cost due to potential warranty costs, repairs and loss of market share. Reliability is the probability that the system will perform its intended...MCMC and splitting sampling schemes. Our proposed SS/ STP method is presented in Section 4, including accuracy bounds and computational effort

  12. A novel simulation method to evaluate the collection performance of a monolithic active pixel sensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Min; Tang Zhen'an

    2011-01-01

    A novel simulation method is presented in this paper to evaluate the collection performance of monolithic active pixel sensor (MAPS) devices for minimum ionizing particle tracking. A simplified 3D matrix pixel structure is built using the computer aided design software Sentaurus. The virtual device is then divided into hundreds of parts and an independent customized X photon model is involved in each part to simulate the conditions under 55 Fe radiation. After data processing and analysis, charge collection efficiency, collection time and diffusion conditions can be estimated in detail. In order to verify the reliability of the method, comparisons are made between the simulations and experiments. Although there are some defects, it can be concluded that the proposed idea is a feasible method for the evaluation of the MAPS collection performance. (authors)

  13. Natural tracer test simulation by stochastic particle tracking method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerer, P.; Mose, R.; Semra, K.

    1990-01-01

    Stochastic particle tracking methods are well adapted to 3D transport simulations where discretization requirements of other methods usually cannot be satisfied. They do need a very accurate approximation of the velocity field. The described code is based on the mixed hybrid finite element method (MHFEM) to calculated the piezometric and velocity field. The random-walk method is used to simulate mass transport. The main advantages of the MHFEM over FD or FE are the simultaneous calculation of pressure and velocity, which are considered as unknowns; the possibility of interpolating velocities everywhere; and the continuity of the normal component of the velocity vector from one element to another. For these reasons, the MHFEM is well adapted for particle tracking methods. After a general description of the numerical methods, the model is used to simulate the observations made during the Twin Lake Tracer Test in 1983. A good match is found between observed and simulated heads and concentrations. (Author) (12 refs., 4 figs.)

  14. A survey on the human reliability analysis methods for the design of Korean next generation reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, J. W.; Park, J. C.; Kwack, H. Y.; Lee, K. Y.; Park, J. K.; Kim, I. S.; Jung, K. W

    2000-03-01

    Enhanced features through applying recent domestic technologies may characterize the safety and efficiency of KNGR(Korea Next Generation Reactor). Human engineered interface and control room environment are expected to be beneficial to the human aspects of KNGR design. However, since the current method for human reliability analysis is not up to date after THERP/SHARP, it becomes hard to assess the potential of human errors due to both of the positive and negative effect of the design changes in KNGR. This is a state of the art report on the human reliability analysis methods that are potentially available for the application to the KNGR design. We surveyed every technical aspects of existing HRA methods, and compared them in order to obtain the requirements for the assessment of human error potentials within KNGR design. We categorized the more than 10 methods into the first and the second generation according to the suggestion of Dr. Hollnagel. THERP was revisited in detail. ATHEANA proposed by US NRC for an advanced design and CREAM proposed by Dr. Hollnagel were reviewed and compared. We conclude that the key requirements might include the enhancement in the early steps for human error identification and the quantification steps with considerations of more extended error shaping factors over PSFs(performance shaping factors). The utilization of the steps and approaches of ATHEANA and CREAM will be beneficial to the attainment of an appropriate HRA method for KNGR. However, the steps and data from THERP will be still maintained because of the continuity with previous PSA activities in KNGR design.

  15. A survey on the human reliability analysis methods for the design of Korean next generation reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, J. W.; Park, J. C.; Kwack, H. Y.; Lee, K. Y.; Park, J. K.; Kim, I. S.; Jung, K. W.

    2000-03-01

    Enhanced features through applying recent domestic technologies may characterize the safety and efficiency of KNGR(Korea Next Generation Reactor). Human engineered interface and control room environment are expected to be beneficial to the human aspects of KNGR design. However, since the current method for human reliability analysis is not up to date after THERP/SHARP, it becomes hard to assess the potential of human errors due to both of the positive and negative effect of the design changes in KNGR. This is a state of the art report on the human reliability analysis methods that are potentially available for the application to the KNGR design. We surveyed every technical aspects of existing HRA methods, and compared them in order to obtain the requirements for the assessment of human error potentials within KNGR design. We categorized the more than 10 methods into the first and the second generation according to the suggestion of Dr. Hollnagel. THERP was revisited in detail. ATHEANA proposed by US NRC for an advanced design and CREAM proposed by Dr. Hollnagel were reviewed and compared. We conclude that the key requirements might include the enhancement in the early steps for human error identification and the quantification steps with considerations of more extended error shaping factors over PSFs(performance shaping factors). The utilization of the steps and approaches of ATHEANA and CREAM will be beneficial to the attainment of an appropriate HRA method for KNGR. However, the steps and data from THERP will be still maintained because of the continuity with previous PSA activities in KNGR design

  16. A Reliable Method for the Evaluation of the Anaphylactoid Reaction Caused by Injectable Drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Adverse reactions of injectable drugs usually occur at first administration and are closely associated with the dosage and speed of injection. This phenomenon is correlated with the anaphylactoid reaction. However, up to now, study methods based on antigen detection have still not gained wide acceptance and single physiological indicators cannot be utilized to differentiate anaphylactoid reactions from allergic reactions and inflammatory reactions. In this study, a reliable method for the evaluation of anaphylactoid reactions caused by injectable drugs was established by using multiple physiological indicators. We used compound 48/80, ovalbumin and endotoxin as the sensitization agents to induce anaphylactoid, allergic and inflammatory reactions. Different experimental animals (guinea pig and nude rat and different modes of administration (intramuscular, intravenous and intraperitoneal injection and different times (15 min, 30 min and 60 min were evaluated to optimize the study protocol. The results showed that the optimal way to achieve sensitization involved treating guinea pigs with the different agents by intravenous injection for 30 min. Further, seven related humoral factors including 5-HT, SC5b-9, Bb, C4d, IL-6, C3a and histamine were detected by HPLC analysis and ELISA assay to determine their expression level. The results showed that five of them, including 5-HT, SC5b-9, Bb, C4d and IL-6, displayed significant differences between anaphylactoid, allergic and inflammatory reactions, which indicated that their combination could be used to distinguish these three reactions. Then different injectable drugs were used to verify this method and the results showed that the chosen indicators exhibited good correlation with the anaphylactoid reaction which indicated that the established method was both practical and reliable. Our research provides a feasible method for the diagnosis of the serious adverse reactions caused by injectable drugs which

  17. Validity and reliability of the session-RPE method for quantifying training load in karate athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabben, M; Tourny, C; Haddad, M; Chaabane, H; Chamari, K; Coquart, J B

    2015-04-24

    To test the construct validity and reliability of the session rating of perceived exertion (sRPE) method by examining the relationship between RPE and physiological parameters (heart rate: HR and blood lactate concentration: [La --] ) and the correlations between sRPE and two HR--based methods for quantifying internal training load (Banister's method and Edwards's method) during karate training camp. Eighteen elite karate athletes: ten men (age: 24.2 ± 2.3 y, body mass: 71.2 ± 9.0 kg, body fat: 8.2 ± 1.3% and height: 178 ± 7 cm) and eight women (age: 22.6 ± 1.2 y, body mass: 59.8 ± 8.4 kg, body fat: 20.2 ± 4.4%, height: 169 ± 4 cm) were included in the study. During training camp, subjects participated in eight karate--training sessions including three training modes (4 tactical--technical, 2 technical--development, and 2 randori training), during which RPE, HR, and [La -- ] were recorded. Significant correlations were found between RPE and physiological parameters (percentage of maximal HR: r = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.64--0.86; [La --] : r = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.49--0.75; P training load ( r = 0.65--0.95; P reliability of the same intensity across training sessions (Cronbach's α = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.61--0.92). This study demonstrates that the sRPE method is valid for quantifying internal training load and intensity in karate.

  18. Factorization method for simulating QCD at finite density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, Jun

    2003-01-01

    We propose a new method for simulating QCD at finite density. The method is based on a general factorization property of distribution functions of observables, and it is therefore applicable to any system with a complex action. The so-called overlap problem is completely eliminated by the use of constrained simulations. We test this method in a Random Matrix Theory for finite density QCD, where we are able to reproduce the exact results for the quark number density. (author)

  19. Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Willems, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Failure of urban drainage systems may occur due to surcharge or flooding at specific manholes in the system, or due to overflows from combined sewer systems to receiving waters. To quantify the probability or return period of failure, standard approaches make use of the simulation of design storms...... or long historical rainfall series in a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage system. In this paper, an alternative probabilistic method is investigated: the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). To apply this method, a long rainfall time series was divided in rain storms (rain events), and each rain...

  20. Novel Methods to Enhance Precision and Reliability in Muscle Synergy Identification during Walking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yushin; Bulea, Thomas C.; Damiano, Diane L.

    2016-01-01

    Muscle synergies are hypothesized to reflect modular control of muscle groups via descending commands sent through multiple neural pathways. Recently, the number of synergies has been reported as a functionally relevant indicator of motor control complexity in individuals with neurological movement disorders. Yet the number of synergies extracted during a given activity, e.g., gait, varies within and across studies, even for unimpaired individuals. With no standardized methods for precise determination, this variability remains unexplained making comparisons across studies and cohorts difficult. Here, we utilize k-means clustering and intra-class and between-level correlation coefficients to precisely discriminate reliable from unreliable synergies. Electromyography (EMG) was recorded bilaterally from eight leg muscles during treadmill walking at self-selected speed. Muscle synergies were extracted from 20 consecutive gait cycles using non-negative matrix factorization. We demonstrate that the number of synergies is highly dependent on the threshold when using the variance accounted for by reconstructed EMG. Beyond use of threshold, our method utilized a quantitative metric to reliably identify four or five synergies underpinning walking in unimpaired adults and revealed synergies having poor reproducibility that should not be considered as true synergies. We show that robust and unreliable synergies emerge similarly, emphasizing the need for careful analysis in those with pathology. PMID:27695403

  1. Identification of a practical and reliable method for the evaluation of litter moisture in turkey production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinco, L J; Giacomelli, S; Campana, L; Chiari, M; Vitale, N; Lombardi, G; Veldkamp, T; Hocking, P M

    2018-02-01

    1. An experiment was conducted to compare 5 different methods for the evaluation of litter moisture. 2. For litter collection and assessment, 55 farms were selected, one shed from each farm was inspected and 9 points were identified within each shed. 3. For each device, used for the evaluation of litter moisture, mean and standard deviation of wetness measures per collection point were assessed. 4. The reliability and overall consistency between the 5 instruments used to measure wetness were high (α = 0.72). 5. Measurement of three out of the 9 collection points were sufficient to provide a reliable assessment of litter moisture throughout the shed. 6. Based on the direct correlation between litter moisture and footpad lesions, litter moisture measurement can be used as a resource based on-farm animal welfare indicator. 7. Among the 5 methods analysed, visual scoring is the most simple and practical, and therefore the best candidate to be used on-farm for animal welfare assessment.

  2. A Newly Developed Method for Computing Reliability Measures in a Water Supply Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Malinowski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reliability model of a water supply network has beens examined. Its main features are: a topology that can be decomposed by the so-called state factorization into a (relativelysmall number of derivative networks, each having a series-parallel structure (1, binary-state components (either operative or failed with given flow capacities (2, a multi-state character of the whole network and its sub-networks - a network state is defined as the maximal flow between a source (sources and a sink (sinks (3, all capacities (component, network, and sub-network have integer values (4. As the network operates, its state changes due to component failures, repairs, and replacements. A newly developed method of computing the inter-state transition intensities has been presented. It is based on the so-called state factorization and series-parallel aggregation. The analysis of these intensities shows that the failure-repair process of the considered system is an asymptotically homogenous Markov process. It is also demonstrated how certain reliability parameters useful for the network maintenance planning can be determined on the basis of the asymptotic intensities. For better understanding of the presented method, an illustrative example is given. (original abstract

  3. Evaluation of full-scope simulator testing methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feher, M P; Moray, N; Senders, J W; Biron, K [Human Factors North Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1995-03-01

    This report discusses the use of full scope nuclear power plant simulators in licensing examinations for Unit First Operators of CANDU reactors. The existing literature is reviewed, and an annotated bibliography of the more important sources provided. Since existing methods are judged inadequate, conceptual bases for designing a system for licensing are discussed, and a method proposed which would make use of objective scoring methods based on data collection in full-scope simulators. A field trial of such a method is described. The practicality of such a method is critically discussed and possible advantages of subjective methods of evaluation considered. (author). 32 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs.

  4. Evaluation of full-scope simulator testing methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feher, M.P.; Moray, N.; Senders, J.W.; Biron, K.

    1995-03-01

    This report discusses the use of full scope nuclear power plant simulators in licensing examinations for Unit First Operators of CANDU reactors. The existing literature is reviewed, and an annotated bibliography of the more important sources provided. Since existing methods are judged inadequate, conceptual bases for designing a system for licensing are discussed, and a method proposed which would make use of objective scoring methods based on data collection in full-scope simulators. A field trial of such a method is described. The practicality of such a method is critically discussed and possible advantages of subjective methods of evaluation considered. (author). 32 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  5. Safety and reliability in nuclear power plants operation using total range simulators for operators training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gleason, E.; Espinosa, G.; Rodriguez, S.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology developed for the management of the configuration simulator, unit 1 of Laguna Verde's nucleoelectric power station. This methodology has the purchase to conclude the simulator modernization and to have interaction with the power station's administration. The validation and the application of this methodology is also presented as well as the up-to-date results. (B.C.A.). 12 refs, 01 fig

  6. Constraint methods that accelerate free-energy simulations of biomolecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Alberto; MacCallum, Justin L; Coutsias, Evangelos A; Dill, Ken A

    2015-12-28

    Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules are critical for generating narratives about biological mechanisms. The power of atomistic simulations is that these are physics-based methods that satisfy Boltzmann's law, so they can be used to compute populations, dynamics, and mechanisms. But physical simulations are computationally intensive and do not scale well to the sizes of many important biomolecules. One way to speed up physical simulations is by coarse-graining the potential function. Another way is to harness structural knowledge, often by imposing spring-like restraints. But harnessing external knowledge in physical simulations is problematic because knowledge, data, or hunches have errors, noise, and combinatoric uncertainties. Here, we review recent principled methods for imposing restraints to speed up physics-based molecular simulations that promise to scale to larger biomolecules and motions.

  7. HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPUTERIZED PROCEDURES, PART TWO: APPLICABILITY OF CURRENT METHODS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2012-10-01

    Computerized procedures (CPs) are an emerging technology within nuclear power plant control rooms. While CPs have been implemented internationally in advanced control rooms, to date no U.S. nuclear power plant has implemented CPs in its main control room. Yet, CPs are a reality of new plant builds and are an area of considerable interest to existing plants, which see advantages in terms of easier records management by omitting the need for updating hardcopy procedures. The overall intent of this paper is to provide a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures. It is beyond the scope of this document to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper serves as a review of current HRA as it may be used for the analysis and review of computerized procedures.

  8. Human reliability analysis for probabilistic safety assessments - review of methods and issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivas, G.; Guptan, Rajee; Malhotra, P.K.; Ghadge, S.G.; Chandra, Umesh

    2011-01-01

    It is well known that the two major events in World Nuclear Power Plant Operating history, namely the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, were Human failure events. Subsequent to these two events, several significant changes have been incorporated in Plant Design, Control Room Design and Operator Training to reduce the possibility of Human errors during plant transients. Still, human error contribution to Risk in Nuclear Power Plant operations has been a topic of continued attention for research, development and analysis. Probabilistic Safety Assessments attempt to capture all potential human errors with a scientifically computed failure probability, through Human Reliability Analysis. Several methods are followed by different countries to quantify the Human error probability. This paper reviews the various popular methods being followed, critically examines them with reference to their criticisms and brings out issues for future research. (author)

  9. Regulatory relevant and reliable methods and data for determining the environmental fate of manufactured nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baun, Anders; Sayre, Phil; Steinhäuser, Klaus Günter

    2017-01-01

    The widespread use of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) increases the need for describing and predicting their environmental fate and behaviour. A number of recent reviews have addressed the scientific challenges in disclosing the governing processes for the environmental fate and behaviour of MNs,...... data. Gaps do however exist in test methods for environmental fate, such as methods to estimate heteroagglomeration and the tendency for MNs to transform in the environment.......The widespread use of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) increases the need for describing and predicting their environmental fate and behaviour. A number of recent reviews have addressed the scientific challenges in disclosing the governing processes for the environmental fate and behaviour of MNs......, however there has been less focus on the regulatory adequacy of the data available for MN. The aim of this paper is therefore to review data, testing protocols and guidance papers which describe the environmental fate and behaviour of MN with a focus on their regulatory reliability and relevance. Given...

  10. New method of fast simulation for a hadron calorimeter response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kul'chitskij, Yu.; Sutiak, J.; Tokar, S.; Zenis, T.

    2003-01-01

    In this work we present the new method of a fast Monte-Carlo simulation of a hadron calorimeter response. It is based on the three-dimensional parameterization of the hadronic shower obtained from the ATLAS TILECAL test beam data and GEANT simulations. A new approach of including the longitudinal fluctuations of hadronic shower is described. The obtained results of the fast simulation are in good agreement with the TILECAL experimental data

  11. A two-step method for fast and reliable EUV mask metrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfenstein, Patrick; Mochi, Iacopo; Rajendran, Rajeev; Yoshitake, Shusuke; Ekinci, Yasin

    2017-03-01

    One of the major obstacles towards the implementation of extreme ultraviolet lithography for upcoming technology nodes in semiconductor industry remains the realization of a fast and reliable detection methods patterned mask defects. We are developing a reflective EUV mask-scanning lensless imaging tool (RESCAN), installed at the Swiss Light Source synchrotron at the Paul Scherrer Institut. Our system is based on a two-step defect inspection method. In the first step, a low-resolution defect map is generated by die to die comparison of the diffraction patterns from areas with programmed defects, to those from areas that are known to be defect-free on our test sample. In a later stage, a die to database comparison will be implemented in which the measured diffraction patterns will be compared to those calculated directly from the mask layout. This Scattering Scanning Contrast Microscopy technique operates purely in the Fourier domain without the need to obtain the aerial image and, given a sufficient signal to noise ratio, defects are found in a fast and reliable way, albeit with a location accuracy limited by the spot size of the incident illumination. Having thus identified rough locations for the defects, a fine scan is carried out in the vicinity of these locations. Since our source delivers coherent illumination, we can use an iterative phase-retrieval method to reconstruct the aerial image of the scanned area with - in principle - diffraction-limited resolution without the need of an objective lens. Here, we will focus on the aerial image reconstruction technique and give a few examples to illustrate the capability of the method.

  12. Daylighting simulation: methods, algorithms, and resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carroll, William L.

    1999-12-01

    This document presents work conducted as part of Subtask C, ''Daylighting Design Tools'', Subgroup C2, ''New Daylight Algorithms'', of the IEA SHC Task 21 and the ECBCS Program Annex 29 ''Daylight in Buildings''. The search for and collection of daylighting analysis methods and algorithms led to two important observations. First, there is a wide range of needs for different types of methods to produce a complete analysis tool. These include: Geometry; Light modeling; Characterization of the natural illumination resource; Materials and components properties, representations; and Usability issues (interfaces, interoperability, representation of analysis results, etc). Second, very advantageously, there have been rapid advances in many basic methods in these areas, due to other forces. They are in part driven by: The commercial computer graphics community (commerce, entertainment); The lighting industry; Architectural rendering and visualization for projects; and Academia: Course materials, research. This has led to a very rich set of information resources that have direct applicability to the small daylighting analysis community. Furthermore, much of this information is in fact available online. Because much of the information about methods and algorithms is now online, an innovative reporting strategy was used: the core formats are electronic, and used to produce a printed form only secondarily. The electronic forms include both online WWW pages and a downloadable .PDF file with the same appearance and content. Both electronic forms include live primary and indirect links to actual information sources on the WWW. In most cases, little additional commentary is provided regarding the information links or citations that are provided. This in turn allows the report to be very concise. The links are expected speak for themselves. The report consists of only about 10+ pages, with about 100+ primary links, but

  13. On the Reliability of Source Time Functions Estimated Using Empirical Green's Function Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallegos, A. C.; Xie, J.; Suarez Salas, L.

    2017-12-01

    The Empirical Green's Function (EGF) method (Hartzell, 1978) has been widely used to extract source time functions (STFs). In this method, seismograms generated by collocated events with different magnitudes are deconvolved. Under a fundamental assumption that the STF of the small event is a delta function, the deconvolved Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) yields the large event's STF. While this assumption can be empirically justified by examination of differences in event size and frequency content of the seismograms, there can be a lack of rigorous justification of the assumption. In practice, a small event might have a finite duration when the RSTF is retrieved and interpreted as the large event STF with a bias. In this study, we rigorously analyze this bias using synthetic waveforms generated by convolving a realistic Green's function waveform with pairs of finite-duration triangular or parabolic STFs. The RSTFs are found using a time-domain based matrix deconvolution. We find when the STFs of smaller events are finite, the RSTFs are a series of narrow non-physical spikes. Interpreting these RSTFs as a series of high-frequency source radiations would be very misleading. The only reliable and unambiguous information we can retrieve from these RSTFs is the difference in durations and the moment ratio of the two STFs. We can apply a Tikhonov smoothing to obtain a single-pulse RSTF, but its duration is dependent on the choice of weighting, which may be subjective. We then test the Multi-Channel Deconvolution (MCD) method (Plourde & Bostock, 2017) which assumes that both STFs have finite durations to be solved for. A concern about the MCD method is that the number of unknown parameters is larger, which would tend to make the problem rank-deficient. Because the kernel matrix is dependent on the STFs to be solved for under a positivity constraint, we can only estimate the rank-deficiency with a semi-empirical approach. Based on the results so far, we find that the

  14. A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibanez-Lopez, A.S.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Moratilla-Soria, B.Y.

    2017-01-01

    The liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide. The inception of new alternative technologies, smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging. Government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country's power generation mix, even in those countries with liberalized markets. This paper presents a System Dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical, economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies. The model has been used to simulate Spain's power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix. The main conclusions of the present paper are (i) the necessity of specific regulatory actions in Spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels, avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies, (ii) the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and (iii) the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario. - Highlights: • A System Dynamics model of Spain's power generation mix is proposed. • The overall policy impact on system costs, environment and reliability is assessed. • Current policies are not enough to keep adequate reliability levels. • Capacity payments are an adequate instrument for guaranteeing system reliability. • RES incentives do not solve reliability issues and entail greater system costs.

  15. Comprehensive reliability allocation method for CNC lathes based on cubic transformed functions of failure mode and effects analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhou; Zhu, Yunpeng; Ren, Hongrui; Zhang, Yimin

    2015-03-01

    Reliability allocation of computerized numerical controlled(CNC) lathes is very important in industry. Traditional allocation methods only focus on high-failure rate components rather than moderate failure rate components, which is not applicable in some conditions. Aiming at solving the problem of CNC lathes reliability allocating, a comprehensive reliability allocation method based on cubic transformed functions of failure modes and effects analysis(FMEA) is presented. Firstly, conventional reliability allocation methods are introduced. Then the limitations of direct combination of comprehensive allocation method with the exponential transformed FMEA method are investigated. Subsequently, a cubic transformed function is established in order to overcome these limitations. Properties of the new transformed functions are discussed by considering the failure severity and the failure occurrence. Designers can choose appropriate transform amplitudes according to their requirements. Finally, a CNC lathe and a spindle system are used as an example to verify the new allocation method. Seven criteria are considered to compare the results of the new method with traditional methods. The allocation results indicate that the new method is more flexible than traditional methods. By employing the new cubic transformed function, the method covers a wider range of problems in CNC reliability allocation without losing the advantages of traditional methods.

  16. Inverse Reliability Task: Artificial Neural Networks and Reliability-Based Optimization Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Lehký , David; Slowik , Ondřej; Novák , Drahomír

    2014-01-01

    Part 7: Genetic Algorithms; International audience; The paper presents two alternative approaches to solve inverse reliability task – to determine the design parameters to achieve desired target reliabilities. The first approach is based on utilization of artificial neural networks and small-sample simulation Latin hypercube sampling. The second approach considers inverse reliability task as reliability-based optimization task using double-loop method and also small-sample simulation. Efficie...

  17. Human reliability analysis of errors of commission: a review of methods and applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reer, B

    2007-06-15

    Illustrated by specific examples relevant to contemporary probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), this report presents a review of human reliability analysis (HRA) addressing post initiator errors of commission (EOCs), i.e. inappropriate actions under abnormal operating conditions. The review addressed both methods and applications. Emerging HRA methods providing advanced features and explicit guidance suitable for PSA are: A Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA, key publications in 1998/2000), Methode d'Evaluation de la Realisation des Missions Operateur pour la Surete (MERMOS, 1998/2000), the EOC HRA method developed by the Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS, 2003), the Misdiagnosis Tree Analysis (MDTA) method (2005/2006), the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM, 1998), and the Commission Errors Search and Assessment (CESA) method (2002/2004). As a result of a thorough investigation of various PSA/HRA applications, this paper furthermore presents an overview of EOCs (termination of safety injection, shutdown of secondary cooling, etc.) referred to in predictive studies and a qualitative review of cases of EOC quantification. The main conclusions of the review of both the methods and the EOC HRA cases are: (1) The CESA search scheme, which proceeds from possible operator actions to the affected systems to scenarios, may be preferable because this scheme provides a formalized way for identifying relatively important scenarios with EOC opportunities; (2) an EOC identification guidance like CESA, which is strongly based on the procedural guidance and important measures of systems or components affected by inappropriate actions, however should pay some attention to EOCs associated with familiar but non-procedural actions and EOCs leading to failures of manually initiated safety functions. (3) Orientations of advanced EOC quantification comprise a) modeling of multiple contexts for a given scenario, b) accounting for

  18. Human reliability analysis of errors of commission: a review of methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reer, B.

    2007-06-01

    Illustrated by specific examples relevant to contemporary probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), this report presents a review of human reliability analysis (HRA) addressing post initiator errors of commission (EOCs), i.e. inappropriate actions under abnormal operating conditions. The review addressed both methods and applications. Emerging HRA methods providing advanced features and explicit guidance suitable for PSA are: A Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA, key publications in 1998/2000), Methode d'Evaluation de la Realisation des Missions Operateur pour la Surete (MERMOS, 1998/2000), the EOC HRA method developed by the Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS, 2003), the Misdiagnosis Tree Analysis (MDTA) method (2005/2006), the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM, 1998), and the Commission Errors Search and Assessment (CESA) method (2002/2004). As a result of a thorough investigation of various PSA/HRA applications, this paper furthermore presents an overview of EOCs (termination of safety injection, shutdown of secondary cooling, etc.) referred to in predictive studies and a qualitative review of cases of EOC quantification. The main conclusions of the review of both the methods and the EOC HRA cases are: (1) The CESA search scheme, which proceeds from possible operator actions to the affected systems to scenarios, may be preferable because this scheme provides a formalized way for identifying relatively important scenarios with EOC opportunities; (2) an EOC identification guidance like CESA, which is strongly based on the procedural guidance and important measures of systems or components affected by inappropriate actions, however should pay some attention to EOCs associated with familiar but non-procedural actions and EOCs leading to failures of manually initiated safety functions. (3) Orientations of advanced EOC quantification comprise a) modeling of multiple contexts for a given scenario, b) accounting for

  19. On a simulation study for reliable and secured smart grid communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallapuram, Sriharsha; Moulema, Paul; Yu, Wei

    2015-05-01

    Demand response is one of key smart grid applications that aims to reduce power generation at peak hours and maintain a balance between supply and demand. With the support of communication networks, energy consumers can become active actors in the energy management process by adjusting or rescheduling their electricity usage during peak hours based on utilities pricing incentives. Nonetheless, the integration of communication networks expose the smart grid to cyber-attacks. In this paper, we developed a smart grid simulation test-bed and designed evaluation scenarios. By leveraging the capabilities of Matlab and ns-3 simulation tools, we conducted a simulation study to evaluate the impact of cyber-attacks on demand response application. Our data shows that cyber-attacks could seriously disrupt smart grid operations, thus confirming the need of secure and resilient communication networks for supporting smart grid operations.

  20. Creating High Reliability Teams in Healthcare through In situ Simulation Training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristi Miller RN

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The importance of teamwork on patient safety in healthcare has been well established. However, the theory and research of healthcare teams are seriously lacking in clinical application. While conventional team theory assumes that teams are stable and leadership is constant, a growing body of evidence indicates that most healthcare teams are unstable and lack constant leadership. For healthcare organizations to reduce error and ensure patient safety, the true nature of healthcare teams must be better understood. This study presents a taxonomy of healthcare teams and the determinants of high reliability in healthcare teams based on a series of studies undertaken over a five-year period (2005–2010.

  1. A particle-based method for granular flow simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Chang, Yuanzhang; Bao, Kai; Zhu, Jian; Wu, Enhua

    2012-01-01

    We present a new particle-based method for granular flow simulation. In the method, a new elastic stress term, which is derived from a modified form of the Hooke's law, is included in the momentum governing equation to handle the friction of granular materials. Viscosity force is also added to simulate the dynamic friction for the purpose of smoothing the velocity field and further maintaining the simulation stability. Benefiting from the Lagrangian nature of the SPH method, large flow deformation can be well handled easily and naturally. In addition, a signed distance field is also employed to enforce the solid boundary condition. The experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient for handling the flow of granular materials, and different kinds of granular behaviors can be well simulated by adjusting just one parameter. © 2012 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  2. Research on Monte Carlo simulation method of industry CT system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Junli; Zeng Zhi; Qui Rui; Wu Zhen; Li Chunyan

    2010-01-01

    There are a series of radiation physical problems in the design and production of industry CT system (ICTS), including limit quality index analysis; the effect of scattering, efficiency of detectors and crosstalk to the system. Usually the Monte Carlo (MC) Method is applied to resolve these problems. Most of them are of little probability, so direct simulation is very difficult, and existing MC methods and programs can't meet the needs. To resolve these difficulties, particle flux point auto-important sampling (PFPAIS) is given on the basis of auto-important sampling. Then, on the basis of PFPAIS, a particular ICTS simulation method: MCCT is realized. Compared with existing MC methods, MCCT is proved to be able to simulate the ICTS more exactly and effectively. Furthermore, the effects of all kinds of disturbances of ICTS are simulated and analyzed by MCCT. To some extent, MCCT can guide the research of the radiation physical problems in ICTS. (author)

  3. A simple method for potential flow simulation of cascades

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    vortex panel method to simulate potential flow in cascades is presented. The cascade ... The fluid loading on the blades, such as the normal force and pitching moment, may ... of such discrete infinite array singularities along the blade surface.

  4. A particle-based method for granular flow simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Chang, Yuanzhang

    2012-03-16

    We present a new particle-based method for granular flow simulation. In the method, a new elastic stress term, which is derived from a modified form of the Hooke\\'s law, is included in the momentum governing equation to handle the friction of granular materials. Viscosity force is also added to simulate the dynamic friction for the purpose of smoothing the velocity field and further maintaining the simulation stability. Benefiting from the Lagrangian nature of the SPH method, large flow deformation can be well handled easily and naturally. In addition, a signed distance field is also employed to enforce the solid boundary condition. The experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient for handling the flow of granular materials, and different kinds of granular behaviors can be well simulated by adjusting just one parameter. © 2012 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  5. Comparing three methods for participatory simulation of hospital work systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Andersen, Simone Nyholm

    Summative Statement: This study compared three participatory simulation methods using different simulation objects: Low resolution table-top setup using Lego figures, full scale mock-ups, and blueprints using Lego figures. It was concluded the three objects by differences in fidelity and affordance...... scenarios using the objects. Results: Full scale mock-ups significantly addressed the local space and technology/tool elements of a work system. In contrast, the table-top simulation object addressed the organizational issues of the future work system. The blueprint based simulation addressed...

  6. Forest canopy BRDF simulation using Monte Carlo method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, J.; Wu, B.; Zeng, Y.; Tian, Y.

    2006-01-01

    Monte Carlo method is a random statistic method, which has been widely used to simulate the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) of vegetation canopy in the field of visible remote sensing. The random process between photons and forest canopy was designed using Monte Carlo method.

  7. A Systematic Review of Statistical Methods Used to Test for Reliability of Medical Instruments Measuring Continuous Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafdzah Zaki

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available   Objective(s: Reliability measures precision or the extent to which test results can be replicated. This is the first ever systematic review to identify statistical methods used to measure reliability of equipment measuring continuous variables. This studyalso aims to highlight the inappropriate statistical method used in the reliability analysis and its implication in the medical practice.   Materials and Methods: In 2010, five electronic databases were searched between 2007 and 2009 to look for reliability studies. A total of 5,795 titles were initially identified. Only 282 titles were potentially related, and finally 42 fitted the inclusion criteria. Results: The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC is the most popular method with 25 (60% studies having used this method followed by the comparing means (8 or 19%. Out of 25 studies using the ICC, only 7 (28% reported the confidence intervals and types of ICC used. Most studies (71% also tested the agreement of instruments. Conclusion: This study finds that the Intra-class Correlation Coefficient is the most popular method used to assess the reliability of medical instruments measuring continuous outcomes. There are also inappropriate applications and interpretations of statistical methods in some studies. It is important for medical researchers to be aware of this issue, and be able to correctly perform analysis in reliability studies.

  8. Control of the large renal vein in limited dissected space during laparoscopic nephrectomy: a simple and reliable method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kijvikai, Kittinut; Laguna, M. Pilar; de la Rosette, Jean

    2006-01-01

    We describe our technique for large renal vein control in the limited dissected space during laparoscopic nephrectomy. This technique is a simple, inexpensive and reliable method, especially for large and short renal vein ligation

  9. The GRASP 3: Graphical Reliability Analysis Simulation Program. Version 3: A users' manual and modelling guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, D. T.; Manseur, B.; Foster, J. W.

    1982-01-01

    Alternate definitions of system failure create complex analysis for which analytic solutions are available only for simple, special cases. The GRASP methodology is a computer simulation approach for solving all classes of problems in which both failure and repair events are modeled according to the probability laws of the individual components of the system.

  10. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  11. New Methods for Building-In and Improvement of Integrated Circuit Reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Pol, J.A.; van der Pol, Jacob Antonius

    2000-01-01

    Over the past 30 years the reliability of semiconductor products has improved by a factor of 100 while at the same time the complexity of the circuits has increased by a factor 105. This 7-decade reliability improvement has been realised by implementing a sophisticated reliability assurance system

  12. Simulation methods of nuclear electromagnetic pulse effects in integrated circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Jili; Liu Yuan; En Yunfei; Fang Wenxiao; Wei Aixiang; Yang Yuanzhen

    2013-01-01

    In the paper the ways to compute the response of transmission line (TL) illuminated by electromagnetic pulse (EMP) were introduced firstly, which include finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) and trans-mission line matrix (TLM); then the feasibility of electromagnetic topology (EMT) in ICs nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NEMP) effect simulation was discussed; in the end, combined with the methods computing the response of TL, a new method of simulate the transmission line in IC illuminated by NEMP was put forward. (authors)

  13. Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, S; Willems, P

    2008-01-01

    Failure of urban drainage systems may occur due to surcharge or flooding at specific manholes in the system, or due to overflows from combined sewer systems to receiving waters. To quantify the probability or return period of failure, standard approaches make use of the simulation of design storms or long historical rainfall series in a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage system. In this paper, an alternative probabilistic method is investigated: the first-order reliability method (FORM). To apply this method, a long rainfall time series was divided in rainstorms (rain events), and each rainstorm conceptualized to a synthetic rainfall hyetograph by a Gaussian shape with the parameters rainstorm depth, duration and peak intensity. Probability distributions were calibrated for these three parameters and used on the basis of the failure probability estimation, together with a hydrodynamic simulation model to determine the failure conditions for each set of parameters. The method takes into account the uncertainties involved in the rainstorm parameterization. Comparison is made between the failure probability results of the FORM method, the standard method using long-term simulations and alternative methods based on random sampling (Monte Carlo direct sampling and importance sampling). It is concluded that without crucial influence on the modelling accuracy, the FORM is very applicable as an alternative to traditional long-term simulations of urban drainage systems.

  14. Simple and Reliable Method to Estimate the Fingertip Static Coefficient of Friction in Precision Grip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrea, Allan; Bulens, David Cordova; Lefevre, Philippe; Thonnard, Jean-Louis

    2016-01-01

    The static coefficient of friction (µ static ) plays an important role in dexterous object manipulation. Minimal normal force (i.e., grip force) needed to avoid dropping an object is determined by the tangential force at the fingertip-object contact and the frictional properties of the skin-object contact. Although frequently assumed to be constant for all levels of normal force (NF, the force normal to the contact), µ static actually varies nonlinearly with NF and increases at low NF levels. No method is currently available to measure the relationship between µ static and NF easily. Therefore, we propose a new method allowing the simple and reliable measurement of the fingertip µ static at different NF levels, as well as an algorithm for determining µ static from measured forces and torques. Our method is based on active, back-and-forth movements of a subject's finger on the surface of a fixed six-axis force and torque sensor. µ static is computed as the ratio of the tangential to the normal force at slip onset. A negative power law captures the relationship between µ static and NF. Our method allows the continuous estimation of µ static as a function of NF during dexterous manipulation, based on the relationship between µ static and NF measured before manipulation.

  15. An introduction to computer simulation methods applications to physical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Gould, Harvey; Christian, Wolfgang

    2007-01-01

    Now in its third edition, this book teaches physical concepts using computer simulations. The text incorporates object-oriented programming techniques and encourages readers to develop good programming habits in the context of doing physics. Designed for readers at all levels , An Introduction to Computer Simulation Methods uses Java, currently the most popular programming language. Introduction, Tools for Doing Simulations, Simulating Particle Motion, Oscillatory Systems, Few-Body Problems: The Motion of the Planets, The Chaotic Motion of Dynamical Systems, Random Processes, The Dynamics of Many Particle Systems, Normal Modes and Waves, Electrodynamics, Numerical and Monte Carlo Methods, Percolation, Fractals and Kinetic Growth Models, Complex Systems, Monte Carlo Simulations of Thermal Systems, Quantum Systems, Visualization and Rigid Body Dynamics, Seeing in Special and General Relativity, Epilogue: The Unity of Physics For all readers interested in developing programming habits in the context of doing phy...

  16. Motion simulation of hydraulic driven safety rod using FSI method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Jaeho; Kim, Sanghaun; Yoo, Yeonsik; Cho, Yeonggarp; Kim, Jong In

    2013-01-01

    Hydraulic driven safety rod which is one of them is being developed by Division for Reactor Mechanical Engineering, KAERI. In this paper the motion of this rod is simulated by fluid structure interaction (FSI) method before manufacturing for design verification and pump sizing. A newly designed hydraulic driven safety rod which is one of reactivity control mechanism is simulated using FSI method for design verification and pump sizing. The simulation is done in CFD domain with UDF. The pressure drop is changed slightly by flow rates. It means that the pressure drop is mainly determined by weight of moving part. The simulated velocity of piston is linearly proportional to flow rates so the pump can be sized easily according to the rising and drop time requirement of the safety rod using the simulation results

  17. Methods for Calculating Frequency of Maintenance of Complex Information Security System Based on Dynamics of Its Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlataya, S. K.; Evdokimov, V. E.; Urzov, A. Y.

    2017-11-01

    This article describes a process of calculating a certain complex information security system (CISS) reliability using the example of the technospheric security management model as well as ability to determine the frequency of its maintenance using the system reliability parameter which allows one to assess man-made risks and to forecast natural and man-made emergencies. The relevance of this article is explained by the fact the CISS reliability is closely related to information security (IS) risks. Since reliability (or resiliency) is a probabilistic characteristic of the system showing the possibility of its failure (and as a consequence - threats to the protected information assets emergence), it is seen as a component of the overall IS risk in the system. As it is known, there is a certain acceptable level of IS risk assigned by experts for a particular information system; in case of reliability being a risk-forming factor maintaining an acceptable risk level should be carried out by the routine analysis of the condition of CISS and its elements and their timely service. The article presents a reliability parameter calculation for the CISS with a mixed type of element connection, a formula of the dynamics of such system reliability is written. The chart of CISS reliability change is a S-shaped curve which can be divided into 3 periods: almost invariable high level of reliability, uniform reliability reduction, almost invariable low level of reliability. Setting the minimum acceptable level of reliability, the graph (or formula) can be used to determine the period of time during which the system would meet requirements. Ideally, this period should not be longer than the first period of the graph. Thus, the proposed method of calculating the CISS maintenance frequency helps to solve a voluminous and critical task of the information assets risk management.

  18. Computing interval-valued reliability measures: application of optimal control methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozin, Igor; Krymsky, Victor

    2017-01-01

    The paper describes an approach to deriving interval-valued reliability measures given partial statistical information on the occurrence of failures. We apply methods of optimal control theory, in particular, Pontryagin’s principle of maximum to solve the non-linear optimisation problem and derive...... the probabilistic interval-valued quantities of interest. It is proven that the optimisation problem can be translated into another problem statement that can be solved on the class of piecewise continuous probability density functions (pdfs). This class often consists of piecewise exponential pdfs which appear...... as soon as among the constraints there are bounds on a failure rate of a component under consideration. Finding the number of switching points of the piecewise continuous pdfs and their values becomes the focus of the approach described in the paper. Examples are provided....

  19. A novel reliable method of DNA extraction from olive oil suitable for molecular traceability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raieta, Katia; Muccillo, Livio; Colantuoni, Vittorio

    2015-04-01

    Extra virgin olive oil production has a worldwide economic impact. The use of this brand, however, is of great concern to Institutions and private industries because of the increasing number of fraud and adulteration attempts to the market products. Here, we present a novel, reliable and not expensive method for extracting the DNA from commercial virgin and extra virgin olive oils. The DNA is stable overtime and amenable for molecular analyses; in fact, by carrying out simple sequence repeats (SSRs) markers analysis, we characterise the genetic profile of monovarietal olive oils. By comparing the oil-derived pattern with that of the corresponding tree, we can unambiguously identify four cultivars from Samnium, a region of Southern Italy, and distinguish them from reference and more widely used varieties. Through a parentage statistical analysis, we also identify the putative pollinators, establishing an unprecedented and powerful tool for olive oil traceability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Reliable assessment of general surgeons' non-technical skills based on video-recordings of patient simulated scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanager, Lene; Beier-Holgersen, Randi; Dieckmann, Peter; Konge, Lars; Rosenberg, Jacob; Oestergaard, Doris

    2013-11-01

    Nontechnical skills are essential for safe and efficient surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of an assessment tool for surgeons' nontechnical skills, Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk), and the effect of rater training. A 1-day course was conducted for 15 general surgeons in which they rated surgeons' nontechnical skills in 9 video recordings of scenarios simulating real intraoperative situations. Data were gathered from 2 sessions separated by a 4-hour training session. Interrater reliability was high for both pretraining ratings (Cronbach's α = .97) and posttraining ratings (Cronbach's α = .98). There was no statistically significant development in assessment skills. The D study showed that 2 untrained raters or 1 trained rater was needed to obtain generalizability coefficients >.80. The high pretraining interrater reliability indicates that videos were easy to rate and Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk easy to use. This implies that Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk) could be an important tool in surgical training, potentially improving safety and quality for surgical patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.