Assessment and Improving Methods of Reliability Indices in Bakhtar Regional Electricity Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saeed Shahrezaei

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Reliability of a system is the ability of a system to do prospected duties in future and the probability of desirable operation for doing predetermined duties. Power system elements failures data are the main data of reliability assessment in the network. Determining antiseptic parameters is the goal of reliability assessment by using system history data. These parameters help to recognize week points of the system. In other words, the goal of reliability assessment is operation improving and decreasing of the failures and power outages. This paper is developed to assess reliability indices of Bakhtar Regional Electricity Company up to 1393 and the improving methods and their effects on the reliability indices in this network. DIgSILENT Power Factory software is employed for simulation. Simulation results show the positive effect of improving methods in reliability indices of Bakhtar Regional Electricity Company.

Sequential optimization and reliability assessment method for metal forming processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahai, Atul; Schramm, Uwe; Buranathiti, Thaweepat; Chen Wei; Cao Jian; Xia, Cedric Z.

2004-01-01

Uncertainty is inevitable in any design process. The uncertainty could be due to the variations in geometry of the part, material properties or due to the lack of knowledge about the phenomena being modeled itself. Deterministic design optimization does not take uncertainty into account and worst case scenario assumptions lead to vastly over conservative design. Probabilistic design, such as reliability-based design and robust design, offers tools for making robust and reliable decisions under the presence of uncertainty in the design process. Probabilistic design optimization often involves double-loop procedure for optimization and iterative probabilistic assessment. This results in high computational demand. The high computational demand can be reduced by replacing computationally intensive simulation models with less costly surrogate models and by employing Sequential Optimization and reliability assessment (SORA) method. The SORA method uses a single-loop strategy with a series of cycles of deterministic optimization and reliability assessment. The deterministic optimization and reliability assessment is decoupled in each cycle. This leads to quick improvement of design from one cycle to other and increase in computational efficiency. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA) method when applied to designing a sheet metal flanging process. Surrogate models are used as less costly approximations to the computationally expensive Finite Element simulations

Generation reliability assessment in oligopoly power market using Monte Carlo simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haroonabadi, H.; Haghifam, M.R.

2007-01-01

This paper addressed issues regarding power generation reliability assessment (HLI) in deregulated power pool markets. Most HLI reliability evaluation methods are based on the loss of load (LOLE) approach which is among the most suitable indices to describe the level of generation reliability. LOLE refers to the time in which load is greater than the amount of available generation. While most reliability assessments deal only with power system constraints, this study considered HLI reliability assessment in an oligopoly power market using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It evaluated the sensitivity of the reliability index to different reserve margins and future margins. The reliability index was determined by intersecting the offer and demand curves of power plants and comparing them to other parameters. The paper described the fundamentals of an oligopoly power pool market and proposed an algorithm for HLI reliability assessment for such a market. The proposed method was assessed on the IEEE-Reliability Test System with satisfactory results. In all cases, generation reliability indices were evaluated with different reserve margins and various load levels. 19 refs., 7 figs., 1 appendix

Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor

2010-01-01

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional approaches...

Reliability research to nuclear power plant operators based on several methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang Xiang; Li Fu; Zhao Bingquan

2009-01-01

The paper utilizes many kinds of international reliability research methods, and summarizes the review of reliability research of Chinese nuclear power plant operators in past over ten years based on the simulator platform of nuclear power plant. The paper shows the necessity and feasibility of the research to nuclear power plant operators from many angles including human cognition reliability, fuzzy mathematics model and psychological research model, etc. It will be good to the safe operation of nuclear power plant based on many kinds of research methods to the reliability research of nuclear power plant operators. (authors)

Structural Reliability Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, David J.; Viterna, Larry A.

1991-01-01

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Validity and Reliability of Orthodontic Loops between Mechanical Testing and Computer Simulation: An Finite Element Method Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaurav Sepolia

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The magnitude and direction of orthodontic force is one of the essential concerns of orthodontic tooth movements. Excessive force may cause root resorption and mobility of the tooth, whereas low force level may results in prolonged treatment. The addition of loops allows the clinician to more accurately achieve the desired results. Aims and objectives: The purpose of the study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of orthodontic loops between mechanical testing and computer simulation. Materials and methods: Different types of loops were taken and divided into four groups: The Teardrop loop, Opus loop, L loop and T loop. These were artificially activated for multiple lengths and studied using the FEM. Results: The Teardrop loop showed the highest force level, and there is no significant difference between mechanical testing and computer simulation.

A general software reliability process simulation technique

Science.gov (United States)

Tausworthe, Robert C.

1991-01-01

The structure and rationale of the generalized software reliability process, together with the design and implementation of a computer program that simulates this process are described. Given assumed parameters of a particular project, the users of this program are able to generate simulated status timelines of work products, numbers of injected anomalies, and the progress of testing, fault isolation, repair, validation, and retest. Such timelines are useful in comparison with actual timeline data, for validating the project input parameters, and for providing data for researchers in reliability prediction modeling.

Power distribution system reliability evaluation using dagger-sampling Monte Carlo simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Y.; Zhao, S.; Ma, Y. [North China Electric Power Univ., Hebei (China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

2009-03-11

A dagger-sampling Monte Carlo simulation method was used to evaluate power distribution system reliability. The dagger-sampling technique was used to record the failure of a component as an incident and to determine its occurrence probability by generating incident samples using random numbers. The dagger sampling technique was combined with the direct sequential Monte Carlo method to calculate average values of load point indices and system indices. Results of the 2 methods with simulation times of up to 100,000 years were then compared. The comparative evaluation showed that less computing time was required using the dagger-sampling technique due to its higher convergence speed. When simulation times were 1000 years, the dagger-sampling method required 0.05 seconds to accomplish an evaluation, while the direct method required 0.27 seconds. 12 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

Hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De wael, Annelies, E-mail: annelies.dewael@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); De Backer, Annick [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Jones, Lewys; Nellist, Peter D. [Department of Materials, University of Oxford, Parks Road, OX1 3PH Oxford (United Kingdom); Van Aert, Sandra, E-mail: sandra.vanaert@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium)

2017-06-15

A hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF STEM) images of monotype crystalline nanostructures is presented. Different atom-counting methods already exist for model-like systems. However, the increasing relevance of radiation damage in the study of nanostructures demands a method that allows atom-counting from low dose images with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, the hybrid method directly includes prior knowledge from image simulations into the existing statistics-based method for atom-counting, and accounts in this manner for possible discrepancies between actual and simulated experimental conditions. It is shown by means of simulations and experiments that this hybrid method outperforms the statistics-based method, especially for low electron doses and small nanoparticles. The analysis of a simulated low dose image of a small nanoparticle suggests that this method allows for far more reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials. - Highlights: • A hybrid method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images is introduced. • Image simulations are incorporated into a statistical framework in a reliable manner. • Limits of the existing methods for atom-counting are far exceeded. • Reliable counting results from an experimental low dose image are obtained. • Progress towards reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials is made.

Reliable methods for computer simulation error control and a posteriori estimates

CERN Document Server

Neittaanmäki, P

2004-01-01

Recent decades have seen a very rapid success in developing numerical methods based on explicit control over approximation errors. It may be said that nowadays a new direction is forming in numerical analysis, the main goal of which is to develop methods ofreliable computations. In general, a reliable numerical method must solve two basic problems: (a) generate a sequence of approximations that converges to a solution and (b) verify the accuracy of these approximations. A computer code for such a method must consist of two respective blocks: solver and checker.In this book, we are chie

On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

2018-01-06

This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks' statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies.

On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks’ statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies. PMID:29316614

Reliability-based design optimization via high order response surface method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Hong Shuang

2013-01-01

To reduce the computational effort of reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), the response surface method (RSM) has been widely used to evaluate reliability constraints. We propose an efficient methodology for solving RBDO problems based on an improved high order response surface method (HORSM) that takes advantage of an efficient sampling method, Hermite polynomials and uncertainty contribution concept to construct a high order response surface function with cross terms for reliability analysis. The sampling method generates supporting points from Gauss-Hermite quadrature points, which can be used to approximate response surface function without cross terms, to identify the highest order of each random variable and to determine the significant variables connected with point estimate method. The cross terms between two significant random variables are added to the response surface function to improve the approximation accuracy. Integrating the nested strategy, the improved HORSM is explored in solving RBDO problems. Additionally, a sampling based reliability sensitivity analysis method is employed to reduce the computational effort further when design variables are distributional parameters of input random variables. The proposed methodology is applied on two test problems to validate its accuracy and efficiency. The proposed methodology is more efficient than first order reliability method based RBDO and Monte Carlo simulation based RBDO, and enables the use of RBDO as a practical design tool.

Reliability Testing Using the Vehicle Durability Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

2017-11-20

techniques are employed to reduce test and simulation time. Through application of these processes and techniques the reliability characteristics...remote parameter control (RPC) software. The software is specifically designed for the data collection, analysis, and simulation processes outlined in...the selection process for determining the desired runs for simulation . 4.3 Drive File Development. After the data have been reviewed and

Modeling and simulation for microelectronic packaging assembly manufacturing, reliability and testing

CERN Document Server

Liu, Sheng

2011-01-01

Although there is increasing need for modeling and simulation in the IC package design phase, most assembly processes and various reliability tests are still based on the time consuming ""test and try out"" method to obtain the best solution. Modeling and simulation can easily ensure virtual Design of Experiments (DoE) to achieve the optimal solution. This has greatly reduced the cost and production time, especially for new product development. Using modeling and simulation will become increasingly necessary for future advances in 3D package development.  In this book, Liu and Liu allow people

Design Optimization Method for Composite Components Based on Moment Reliability-Sensitivity Criteria

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Zhigang; Wang, Changxi; Niu, Xuming; Song, Yingdong

2017-08-01

In this paper, a Reliability-Sensitivity Based Design Optimization (RSBDO) methodology for the design of the ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) components has been proposed. A practical and efficient method for reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis of complex components with arbitrary distribution parameters are investigated by using the perturbation method, the respond surface method, the Edgeworth series and the sensitivity analysis approach. The RSBDO methodology is then established by incorporating sensitivity calculation model into RBDO methodology. Finally, the proposed RSBDO methodology is applied to the design of the CMCs components. By comparing with Monte Carlo simulation, the numerical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology provides an accurate, convergent and computationally efficient method for reliability-analysis based finite element modeling engineering practice.

Subset simulation for structural reliability sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Shufang; Lu Zhenzhou; Qiao Hongwei

2009-01-01

Based on two procedures for efficiently generating conditional samples, i.e. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and importance sampling (IS), two reliability sensitivity (RS) algorithms are presented. On the basis of reliability analysis of Subset simulation (Subsim), the RS of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable is transformed as a set of RS of conditional failure probabilities with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable. By use of the conditional samples generated by MCMC simulation and IS, procedures are established to estimate the RS of the conditional failure probabilities. The formulae of the RS estimator, its variance and its coefficient of variation are derived in detail. The results of the illustrations show high efficiency and high precision of the presented algorithms, and it is suitable for highly nonlinear limit state equation and structural system with single and multiple failure modes

A hybrid algorithm for reliability analysis combining Kriging and subset simulation importance sampling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tong, Cao; Sun, Zhili; Zhao, Qianli; Wang, Qibin; Wang, Shuang

2015-01-01

To solve the problem of large computation when failure probability with time-consuming numerical model is calculated, we propose an improved active learning reliability method called AK-SSIS based on AK-IS algorithm. First, an improved iterative stopping criterion in active learning is presented so that iterations decrease dramatically. Second, the proposed method introduces Subset simulation importance sampling (SSIS) into the active learning reliability calculation, and then a learning function suitable for SSIS is proposed. Finally, the efficiency of AK-SSIS is proved by two academic examples from the literature. The results show that AK-SSIS requires fewer calls to the performance function than AK-IS, and the failure probability obtained from AK-SSIS is very robust and accurate. Then this method is applied on a spur gear pair for tooth contact fatigue reliability analysis.

A hybrid algorithm for reliability analysis combining Kriging and subset simulation importance sampling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tong, Cao; Sun, Zhili; Zhao, Qianli; Wang, Qibin [Northeastern University, Shenyang (China); Wang, Shuang [Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou (China)

2015-08-15

To solve the problem of large computation when failure probability with time-consuming numerical model is calculated, we propose an improved active learning reliability method called AK-SSIS based on AK-IS algorithm. First, an improved iterative stopping criterion in active learning is presented so that iterations decrease dramatically. Second, the proposed method introduces Subset simulation importance sampling (SSIS) into the active learning reliability calculation, and then a learning function suitable for SSIS is proposed. Finally, the efficiency of AK-SSIS is proved by two academic examples from the literature. The results show that AK-SSIS requires fewer calls to the performance function than AK-IS, and the failure probability obtained from AK-SSIS is very robust and accurate. Then this method is applied on a spur gear pair for tooth contact fatigue reliability analysis.

Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods: A literature review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boring, Ronald L.; Hendrickson, Stacey M.L.; Forester, John A.; Tran, Tuan Q.; Lois, Erasmia

2010-01-01

There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study comparing and evaluating HRA methods in assessing operator performance in simulator experiments is currently underway. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies is presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lois, Erasmia (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission); Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt; Boring, Ronald L. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID)

2008-04-01

There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

Estimation of reliability on digital plant protection system in nuclear power plants using fault simulation with self-checking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jun Seok; Kim, Suk Joon; Seong, Poong Hyun

2004-01-01

Safety-critical digital systems in nuclear power plants require high design reliability. Reliable software design and accurate prediction methods for the system reliability are important problems. In the reliability analysis, the error detection coverage of the system is one of the crucial factors, however, it is difficult to evaluate the error detection coverage of digital instrumentation and control system in nuclear power plants due to complexity of the system. To evaluate the error detection coverage for high efficiency and low cost, the simulation based fault injections with self checking are needed for digital instrumentation and control system in nuclear power plants. The target system is local coincidence logic in digital plant protection system and a simplified software modeling for this target system is used in this work. C++ based hardware description of micro computer simulator system is used to evaluate the error detection coverage of the system. From the simulation result, it is possible to estimate the error detection coverage of digital plant protection system in nuclear power plants using simulation based fault injection method with self checking. (author)

Reliability of analog quantum simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarovar, Mohan [Sandia National Laboratories, Digital and Quantum Information Systems, Livermore, CA (United States); Zhang, Jun; Zeng, Lishan [Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Joint Institute of UMich-SJTU, Key Laboratory of System Control and Information Processing (MOE), Shanghai (China)

2017-12-15

Analog quantum simulators (AQS) will likely be the first nontrivial application of quantum technology for predictive simulation. However, there remain questions regarding the degree of confidence that can be placed in the results of AQS since they do not naturally incorporate error correction. Specifically, how do we know whether an analog simulation of a quantum model will produce predictions that agree with the ideal model in the presence of inevitable imperfections? At the same time there is a widely held expectation that certain quantum simulation questions will be robust to errors and perturbations in the underlying hardware. Resolving these two points of view is a critical step in making the most of this promising technology. In this work we formalize the notion of AQS reliability by determining sensitivity of AQS outputs to underlying parameters, and formulate conditions for robust simulation. Our approach naturally reveals the importance of model symmetries in dictating the robust properties. To demonstrate the approach, we characterize the robust features of a variety of quantum many-body models. (orig.)

Human reliability analysis methods for probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyy, P.

2000-11-01

Human reliability analysis (HRA) of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) includes identifying human actions from safety point of view, modelling the most important of them in PSA models, and assessing their probabilities. As manifested by many incidents and studies, human actions may have both positive and negative effect on safety and economy. Human reliability analysis is one of the areas of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) that has direct applications outside the nuclear industry. The thesis focuses upon developments in human reliability analysis methods and data. The aim is to support PSA by extending the applicability of HRA. The thesis consists of six publications and a summary. The summary includes general considerations and a discussion about human actions in the nuclear power plant (NPP) environment. A condensed discussion about the results of the attached publications is then given, including new development in methods and data. At the end of the summary part, the contribution of the publications to good practice in HRA is presented. In the publications, studies based on the collection of data on maintenance-related failures, simulator runs and expert judgement are presented in order to extend the human reliability analysis database. Furthermore, methodological frameworks are presented to perform a comprehensive HRA, including shutdown conditions, to study reliability of decision making, and to study the effects of wrong human actions. In the last publication, an interdisciplinary approach to analysing human decision making is presented. The publications also include practical applications of the presented methodological frameworks. (orig.)

Validity evidence and reliability of a simulated patient feedback instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlegel, Claudia; Woermann, Ulrich; Rethans, Jan-Joost; van der Vleuten, Cees

2012-01-27

In the training of healthcare professionals, one of the advantages of communication training with simulated patients (SPs) is the SP's ability to provide direct feedback to students after a simulated clinical encounter. The quality of SP feedback must be monitored, especially because it is well known that feedback can have a profound effect on student performance. Due to the current lack of valid and reliable instruments to assess the quality of SP feedback, our study examined the validity and reliability of one potential instrument, the 'modified Quality of Simulated Patient Feedback Form' (mQSF). Content validity of the mQSF was assessed by inviting experts in the area of simulated clinical encounters to rate the importance of the mQSF items. Moreover, generalizability theory was used to examine the reliability of the mQSF. Our data came from videotapes of clinical encounters between six simulated patients and six students and the ensuing feedback from the SPs to the students. Ten faculty members judged the SP feedback according to the items on the mQSF. Three weeks later, this procedure was repeated with the same faculty members and recordings. All but two items of the mQSF received importance ratings of > 2.5 on a four-point rating scale. A generalizability coefficient of 0.77 was established with two judges observing one encounter. The findings for content validity and reliability with two judges suggest that the mQSF is a valid and reliable instrument to assess the quality of feedback provided by simulated patients.

Inverse Reliability Task: Artificial Neural Networks and Reliability-Based Optimization Approaches

OpenAIRE

Lehký , David; Slowik , Ondřej; Novák , Drahomír

2014-01-01

Part 7: Genetic Algorithms; International audience; The paper presents two alternative approaches to solve inverse reliability task – to determine the design parameters to achieve desired target reliabilities. The first approach is based on utilization of artificial neural networks and small-sample simulation Latin hypercube sampling. The second approach considers inverse reliability task as reliability-based optimization task using double-loop method and also small-sample simulation. Efficie...

Research on Control Method Based on Real-Time Operational Reliability Evaluation for Space Manipulator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yifan Wang

2014-05-01

Full Text Available A control method based on real-time operational reliability evaluation for space manipulator is presented for improving the success rate of a manipulator during the execution of a task. In this paper, a method for quantitative analysis of operational reliability is given when manipulator is executing a specified task; then a control model which could control the quantitative operational reliability is built. First, the control process is described by using a state space equation. Second, process parameters are estimated in real time using Bayesian method. Third, the expression of the system's real-time operational reliability is deduced based on the state space equation and process parameters which are estimated using Bayesian method. Finally, a control variable regulation strategy which considers the cost of control is given based on the Theory of Statistical Process Control. It is shown via simulations that this method effectively improves the operational reliability of space manipulator control system.

Science Based Human Reliability Analysis: Using Digital Nuclear Power Plant Simulators for Human Reliability Research

Science.gov (United States)

Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth

Nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators are proliferating in academic research institutions and national laboratories in response to the availability of affordable, digital simulator platforms. Accompanying the new research facilities is a renewed interest in using data collected in NPP simulators for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) research. An experiment conducted in The Ohio State University (OSU) NPP Simulator Facility develops data collection methods and analytical tools to improve use of simulator data in HRA. In the pilot experiment, student operators respond to design basis accidents in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility. Thirty-three undergraduate and graduate engineering students participated in the research. Following each accident scenario, student operators completed a survey about perceived simulator biases and watched a video of the scenario. During the video, they periodically recorded their perceived strength of significant Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) such as Stress. This dissertation reviews three aspects of simulator-based research using the data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility: First, a qualitative comparison of student operator performance to computer simulations of expected operator performance generated by the Information Decision Action Crew (IDAC) HRA method. Areas of comparison include procedure steps, timing of operator actions, and PSFs. Second, development of a quantitative model of the simulator bias introduced by the simulator environment. Two types of bias are defined: Environmental Bias and Motivational Bias. This research examines Motivational Bias--that is, the effect of the simulator environment on an operator's motivations, goals, and priorities. A bias causal map is introduced to model motivational bias interactions in the OSU experiment. Data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility are analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Data include crew characteristics, operator surveys, and time to recognize

A Novel Reliability Enhanced Handoff Method in Future Wireless Heterogeneous Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang YuPeng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available As the demand increases, future networks will follow the trends of network variety and service flexibility, which requires heterogeneous type of network deployment and reliable communication method. In practice, most communication failure happens due to the bad radio link quality, i.e., high-speed users suffers a lot on the problem of radio link failure, which causes the problem of communication interrupt and radio link recovery. To make the communication more reliable, especially for the high mobility users, we propose a novel communication handoff mechanism to reduce the occurrence of service interrupt. Based on computer simulation, we find that the reliability on the service is greatly improved.

Reliability modelling and simulation of switched linear system ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Reliability modelling and simulation of switched linear system control using temporal databases. ... design of fault-tolerant real-time switching systems control and modelling embedded micro-schedulers for complex systems maintenance.

Coupling finite elements and reliability methods - application to safety evaluation of pressurized water reactor vessels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitner, P.; Venturini, V.

1995-02-01

When reliability studies are extended form deterministic calculations in mechanics, it is necessary to take into account input parameters variabilities which are linked to the different sources of uncertainty. Integrals must then be calculated to evaluate the failure risk. This can be performed either by simulation methods, or by approximations ones (FORM/SORM). Model in mechanics often require to perform calculation codes. These ones must then be coupled with the reliability calculations. Theses codes can involve large calculation times when they are invoked numerous times during simulations sequences or in complex iterative procedures. Response surface method gives an approximation of the real response from a reduced number of points for which the finite element code is run. Thus, when it is combined with FORM/SORM methods, a coupling can be carried out which gives results in a reasonable calculation time. An application of response surface method to mechanics reliability coupling for a mechanical model which calls for a finite element code is presented. It corresponds to a probabilistic fracture mechanics study of a pressurized water reactor vessel. (authors). 5 refs., 3 figs

The cognitive environment simulation as a tool for modeling human performance and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, D.D.; Pople, H. Jr.; Roth, E.M.

1990-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research program to develop improved methods to model the cognitive behavior of nuclear power plant (NPP) personnel. Under this program, a tool for simulating how people form intentions to act in NPP emergency situations was developed using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. This tool is called Cognitive Environment Simulation (CES). The Cognitive Reliability Assessment Technique (or CREATE) was also developed to specify how CBS can be used to enhance the measurement of the human contribution to risk in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies. The next step in the research program was to evaluate the modeling tool and the method for using the tool for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in PRAs. Three evaluation activities were conducted. First, a panel of highly distinguished experts in cognitive modeling, AI, PRA and HRA provided a technical review of the simulation development work. Second, based on panel recommendations, CES was exercised on a family of steam generator tube rupture incidents where empirical data on operator performance already existed. Third, a workshop with HRA practitioners was held to analyze a worked example of the CREATE method to evaluate the role of CES/CREATE in HRA. The results of all three evaluations indicate that CES/CREATE represents a promising approach to modeling operator intention formation during emergency operations

Transition from Partial Factors Method to Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment in Structural Design

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Marek, Pavel; Guštar, M.; Permaul, K.

1999-01-01

Roč. 14, č. 1 (1999), s. 105-118 ISSN 0266-8920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA103/94/0562; GA ČR GV103/96/K034 Keywords : reliability * safety * failure * durability * Monte Carlo method Subject RIV: JM - Building Engineering Impact factor: 0.522, year: 1999

An Evaluation Method of Equipment Reliability Configuration Management

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Feng, Weijia; Zhang, Wei; Li, Yuan

2018-01-01

At present, many equipment development companies have been aware of the great significance of reliability of the equipment development. But, due to the lack of effective management evaluation method, it is very difficult for the equipment development company to manage its own reliability work. Evaluation method of equipment reliability configuration management is to determine the reliability management capabilities of equipment development company. Reliability is not only designed, but also managed to achieve. This paper evaluates the reliability management capabilities by reliability configuration capability maturity model(RCM-CMM) evaluation method.

Application of system reliability analytical method, GO-FLOW

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuoka, Takeshi; Fukuto, Junji; Mitomo, Nobuo; Miyazaki, Keiko; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Kobayashi, Michiyuki

1999-01-01

The Ship Research Institute proceed a developmental study on GO-FLOW method with various advancing functionalities for the system reliability analysis method occupying main parts of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). Here was attempted to intend to upgrade functionality of the GO-FLOW method, to develop an analytical function integrated with dynamic behavior analytical function, physical behavior and probable subject transfer, and to prepare a main accident sequence picking-out function. In 1997 fiscal year, in dynamic event-tree analytical system, an analytical function was developed by adding dependency between headings. In simulation analytical function of the accident sequence, main accident sequence of MRX for improved ship propulsion reactor became possible to be covered perfectly. And, input data for analysis was prepared with a function capable easily to set by an analysis operator. (G.K.)

An accurate and efficient reliability-based design optimization using the second order reliability method and improved stability transformation method

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Zeng; Yang, Dixiong; Zhou, Huanlin; Yu, Bo

2018-05-01

The first order reliability method has been extensively adopted for reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), but it shows inaccuracy in calculating the failure probability with highly nonlinear performance functions. Thus, the second order reliability method is required to evaluate the reliability accurately. However, its application for RBDO is quite challenge owing to the expensive computational cost incurred by the repeated reliability evaluation and Hessian calculation of probabilistic constraints. In this article, a new improved stability transformation method is proposed to search the most probable point efficiently, and the Hessian matrix is calculated by the symmetric rank-one update. The computational capability of the proposed method is illustrated and compared to the existing RBDO approaches through three mathematical and two engineering examples. The comparison results indicate that the proposed method is very efficient and accurate, providing an alternative tool for RBDO of engineering structures.

AK-SYS: An adaptation of the AK-MCS method for system reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fauriat, W.; Gayton, N.

2014-01-01

A lot of research work has been proposed over the last two decades to evaluate the probability of failure of a structure involving a very time-consuming mechanical model. Surrogate model approaches based on Kriging, such as the Efficient Global Reliability Analysis (EGRA) or the Active learning and Kriging-based Monte-Carlo Simulation (AK-MCS) methods, are very efficient and each has advantages of its own. EGRA is well suited to evaluating small probabilities, as the surrogate can be used to classify any population. AK-MCS is built in relation to a given population and requires no optimization program for the active learning procedure to be performed. It is therefore easier to implement and more likely to spend computational effort on areas with a significant probability content. When assessing system reliability, analytical approaches and first-order approximation are widely used in the literature. However, in the present paper we rather focus on sampling techniques and, considering the recent adaptation of the EGRA method for systems, a strategy is presented to adapt the AK-MCS method for system reliability. The AK-SYS method, “Active learning and Kriging-based SYStem reliability method”, is presented. Its high efficiency and accuracy are illustrated via various examples

HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS DENGAN PENDEKATAN COGNITIVE RELIABILITY AND ERROR ANALYSIS METHOD (CREAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zahirah Alifia Maulida

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Kecelakaan kerja pada bidang grinding dan welding menempati urutan tertinggi selama lima tahun terakhir di PT. X. Kecelakaan ini disebabkan oleh human error. Human error terjadi karena pengaruh lingkungan kerja fisik dan non fisik.Penelitian kali menggunakan skenario untuk memprediksi serta mengurangi kemungkinan terjadinya error pada manusia dengan pendekatan CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. CREAM adalah salah satu metode human reliability analysis yang berfungsi untuk mendapatkan nilai Cognitive Failure Probability (CFP yang dapat dilakukan dengan dua cara yaitu basic method dan extended method. Pada basic method hanya akan didapatkan nilai failure probabailty secara umum, sedangkan untuk extended method akan didapatkan CFP untuk setiap task. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan faktor- faktor yang mempengaruhi timbulnya error pada pekerjaan grinding dan welding adalah kecukupan organisasi, kecukupan dari Man Machine Interface (MMI & dukungan operasional, ketersediaan prosedur/ perencanaan, serta kecukupan pelatihan dan pengalaman. Aspek kognitif pada pekerjaan grinding yang memiliki nilai error paling tinggi adalah planning dengan nilai CFP 0.3 dan pada pekerjaan welding yaitu aspek kognitif execution dengan nilai CFP 0.18. Sebagai upaya untuk mengurangi nilai error kognitif pada pekerjaan grinding dan welding rekomendasi yang diberikan adalah memberikan training secara rutin, work instrucstion yang lebih rinci dan memberikan sosialisasi alat. Kata kunci: CREAM (cognitive reliability and error analysis method, HRA (human reliability analysis, cognitive error Abstract The accidents in grinding and welding sectors were the highest cases over the last five years in PT. X and it caused by human error. Human error occurs due to the influence of working environment both physically and non-physically. This study will implement an approaching scenario called CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. CREAM is one of human

A Method of Nuclear Software Reliability Estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Gee Yong; Eom, Heung Seop; Cheon, Se Woo; Jang, Seung Cheol

2011-01-01

A method on estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM) where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow the non-homogeneous Poisson process. Several modeling schemes are presented in order to estimate and predict more precisely the number of software defects based on a few of software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating the software test cases into the model. It is identified that this method is capable of accurately estimating the remaining number of software defects which are on-demand type directly affecting safety trip functions. The software reliability can be estimated from a model equation and one method of obtaining the software reliability is proposed

Towards a non-wired simulator for reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jurvillier, I.; Laviron, A.; Blin, A.

1991-11-01

This paper outlines the objectives and preliminary results of a research programme aiming to increase the advantages of electronic simulators used for reliability studies of complex systems. Research work has resulted in the design of a device based on an electronic simulator capable of carrying out all types of simulation without the drawback of wiring, as is currently the case. Its performance levels as regards speed are comparable to those of wired simulators and this is its main advantage over studies made on a computer. In addition, the simulator is connected to a computer which greatly increases system flexibility and user-friendliness. The first results obtained illustrate what characteristics can be expected of such a system, both as regards the anticipated computation time and the extended processing capabilities (such as the study of common cause failures). (author) [fr

Towards a non-wired simulator for reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blin, A.; Laviron, A.; Jurvillier, I.

1991-08-01

This paper outlines the objectives and preliminary results of a research programme aiming to increase the advantages of electronic simulators used for reliability studies of complex systems. Research work has resulted in the design of a device based on an electronic simulator capable of carrying out all types of simulation without the drawback of wiring, as is currently the case. Its performance levels as regards speed are comparable to those of wired simulators and this is its main advantage over studies made on a computer. In addition, the simulator is connected to a computer which greatly increases system flexibility and user-friendliness. The first results obtained illustrate what characteristics can be expected of such a system, both as regards the anticipated computation time and the extended processing capabilities (such as the study of common cause failures)

Simulated patient training: Using inter-rater reliability to evaluate simulated patient consistency in nursing education.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLean, Sharon; Geddes, Fiona; Kelly, Michelle; Della, Phillip

2018-03-01

Simulated patients (SPs) are frequently used for training nursing students in communication skills. An acknowledged benefit of using SPs is the opportunity to provide a standardized approach by which participants can demonstrate and develop communication skills. However, relatively little evidence is available on how to best facilitate and evaluate the reliability and accuracy of SPs' performances. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of an evidenced based SP training framework to ensure standardization of SPs. The training framework was employed to improve inter-rater reliability of SPs. A quasi-experimental study was employed to assess SP post-training understanding of simulation scenario parameters using inter-rater reliability agreement indices. Two phases of data collection took place. Initially a trial phase including audio-visual (AV) recordings of two undergraduate nursing students completing a simulation scenario is rated by eight SPs using the Interpersonal Communication Assessments Scale (ICAS) and Quality of Discharge Teaching Scale (QDTS). In phase 2, eight SP raters and four nursing faculty raters independently evaluated students' (N=42) communication practices using the QDTS. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were >0.80 for both stages of the study in clinical communication skills. The results support the premise that if trained appropriately, SPs have a high degree of reliability and validity to both facilitate and evaluate student performance in nurse education. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2018-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

Extended object-oriented Petri net model for mission reliability simulation of repairable PMS with common cause failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Xin-yang; Wu, Xiao-Yue

2015-01-01

Phased Mission Systems (PMS) have several phases with different success criteria. Generally, traditional analytical methods need to make some assumptions when they are applied for reliability evaluation and analysis of complex PMS, for example, the components are non-repairable or components are not subjected to common cause failures (CCF). However, the evaluation and analysis results may be inapplicable when the assumptions do not agree with practical situation. In this article, we propose an extended object-oriented Petri net (EOOPN) model for mission reliability simulation of repairable PMS with CCFs. Based on object-oriented Petri net (OOPN), EOOPN defines four reusable sub-models to depict PMS at system, phase, or component levels respectively, logic transitions to depict complex components reliability logics in a more readable form, and broadcast place to transmit shared information among components synchronously. After extension, EOOPN could deal with repairable PMS with both external and internal CCFs conveniently. The mission reliability modelling, simulation and analysis using EOOPN are illustrated by a PMS example. The results demonstrate that the proposed EOOPN model is effective. - Highlights: • EOOPN model was effective in reliability simulation for repairable PMS with CCFs. • EOOPN had modular and hierarchical structure. • New elements of EOOPN made the modelling process more convenient and friendlier. • EOOPN had better model reusability and readability than other PNs

Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvehag, Karin

2011-07-01

Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while under investments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, over investments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socio economically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers. This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socio economically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed riskbased methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk

A Sequential Kriging reliability analysis method with characteristics of adaptive sampling regions and parallelizability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wen, Zhixun; Pei, Haiqing; Liu, Hai; Yue, Zhufeng

2016-01-01

The sequential Kriging reliability analysis (SKRA) method has been developed in recent years for nonlinear implicit response functions which are expensive to evaluate. This type of method includes EGRA: the efficient reliability analysis method, and AK-MCS: the active learning reliability method combining Kriging model and Monte Carlo simulation. The purpose of this paper is to improve SKRA by adaptive sampling regions and parallelizability. The adaptive sampling regions strategy is proposed to avoid selecting samples in regions where the probability density is so low that the accuracy of these regions has negligible effects on the results. The size of the sampling regions is adapted according to the failure probability calculated by last iteration. Two parallel strategies are introduced and compared, aimed at selecting multiple sample points at a time. The improvement is verified through several troublesome examples. - Highlights: • The ISKRA method improves the efficiency of SKRA. • Adaptive sampling regions strategy reduces the number of needed samples. • The two parallel strategies reduce the number of needed iterations. • The accuracy of the optimal value impacts the number of samples significantly.

Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Kanjilal, Oindrila; Manohar, C. S.

2017-07-01

The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations.

Science-Based Simulation Model of Human Performance for Human Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, Dana L.; Boring, Ronald L.; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

2011-01-01

Human reliability analysis (HRA), a component of an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), is the means by which the human contribution to risk is assessed, both qualitatively and quantitatively. However, among the literally dozens of HRA methods that have been developed, most cannot fully model and quantify the types of errors that occurred at Three Mile Island. Furthermore, all of the methods lack a solid empirical basis, relying heavily on expert judgment or empirical results derived in non-reactor domains. Finally, all of the methods are essentially static, and are thus unable to capture the dynamics of an accident in progress. The objective of this work is to begin exploring a dynamic simulation approach to HRA, one whose models have a basis in psychological theories of human performance, and whose quantitative estimates have an empirical basis. This paper highlights a plan to formalize collaboration among the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the University of Maryland, and The Ohio State University (OSU) to continue development of a simulation model initially formulated at the University of Maryland. Initial work will focus on enhancing the underlying human performance models with the most recent psychological research, and on planning follow-on studies to establish an empirical basis for the model, based on simulator experiments to be carried out at the INL and at the OSU.

Using the graphs models for evaluating in-core monitoring systems reliability by the method of imiting simulaton

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golovanov, M.N.; Zyuzin, N.N.; Levin, G.L.; Chesnokov, A.N.

1987-01-01

An approach for estimation of reliability factors of complex reserved systems at early stages of development using the method of imitating simulation is considered. Different types of models, their merits and lacks are given. Features of in-core monitoring systems and advosability of graph model and graph theory element application for estimating reliability of such systems are shown. The results of investigation of the reliability factors of the reactor monitoring, control and core local protection subsystem are shown

High Speed Simulation Framework for Reliable Logic Programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Wan-Bok; Kim, Seog-Ju

2006-01-01

This paper shows a case study of designing a PLC logic simulator that was developed to simulate and verify PLC control programs for nuclear plant systems. The nuclear control system requires strict restrictions rather than normal process control system does, since it works with nuclear power plants requiring high reliability under severe environment. One restriction is the safeness of the control programs which can be assured by exploiting severe testing. Another restriction is the simulation speed of the control programs, that should be fast enough to control multi devices concurrently in real-time. To cope with these restrictions, we devised a logic compiler which generates C-code programs from given PLC logic programs. Once the logic program was translated into C-code, the program could be analyzed by conventional software analysis tools and could be used to construct a fast logic simulator after cross-compiling, in fact, that is a kind of compiled-code simulation

A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turati, Pietro; Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

2016-01-01

The efficient estimation of system reliability characteristics is of paramount importance for many engineering applications. Real world system reliability modeling calls for the capability of treating systems that are: i) dynamic, ii) complex, iii) hybrid and iv) highly reliable. Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) methods offer a way to solve these types of problems, which are feasible according to the potentially high computational costs. In this paper, the REpetitive Simulation Trials After Reaching Thresholds (RESTART) method is employed, extending it to hybrid systems for the first time (to the authors’ knowledge). The estimation accuracy and precision of RESTART highly depend on the choice of the Importance Function (IF) indicating how close the system is to failure: in this respect, proper IFs are here originally proposed to improve the performance of RESTART for the analysis of hybrid systems. The resulting overall simulation approach is applied to estimate the probability of failure of the control system of a liquid hold-up tank and of a pump-valve subsystem subject to degradation induced by fatigue. The results are compared to those obtained by standard MC simulation and by RESTART with classical IFs available in the literature. The comparison shows the improvement in the performance obtained by our approach. - Highlights: • We consider the issue of estimating small failure probabilities in dynamic systems. • We employ the RESTART method to estimate the failure probabilities. • New Importance Functions (IFs) are introduced to increase the method performance. • We adopt two dynamic, hybrid, highly reliable systems as case studies. • A comparison with literature IFs proves the effectiveness of the new IFs.

Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

A Simulation Model for Machine Efficiency Improvement Using Reliability Centered Maintenance: Case Study of Semiconductor Factory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Srisawat Supsomboon

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to increase the quality of product by focusing on the machine efficiency improvement. The principle of the reliability centered maintenance (RCM was applied to increase the machine reliability. The objective was to create preventive maintenance plan under reliability centered maintenance method and to reduce defects. The study target was set to reduce the Lead PPM for a test machine by simulating the proposed preventive maintenance plan. The simulation optimization approach based on evolutionary algorithms was employed for the preventive maintenance technique selection process to select the PM interval that gave the best total cost and Lead PPM values. The research methodology includes procedures such as following the priority of critical components in test machine, analyzing the damage and risk level by using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA, calculating the suitable replacement period through reliability estimation, and optimizing the preventive maintenance plan. From the result of the study it is shown that the Lead PPM of test machine can be reduced. The cost of preventive maintenance, cost of good product, and cost of lost product were decreased.

Simulator training and human factor reliability in Kozloduy NPP, Bulgaria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoychev, Kosta

2007-01-01

This is a PowerPoint presentation. Situated in North Bulgaria, in the vicinity of the town of Kozloduy, near the Danube River bank, there is the Bulgarian Kozloduy Nuclear Power plant operating four WWER-440 and two WWER-1000 units. Units 1 and 2 were commissioned in July, 1974 and November, 1975, respectively. These were shut down at the end of 2003. Units 3 and 4 were commissioned in December, 1980 and May, 1982. They were shut down at the end of 2006 as a precondition for Bulgaria's accession to the European Union. The 1000 MW units 5 and 6 of Kozloduy NPP were commissioned in September, 1988 and December, 1993, respectively. Large-scale modernization have been implemented and now the units meet all international safety standards. The paper describes the multifunctional simulator Kozloduy NPP for the operational staff training. The training stages are as follows: - Preparatory; -Theoretical studies; - Training at the Training Centre by means of technical devices; - Preparation and sitting for an exam before a Kozloduy NPP expert commission; - Simulator training ; - Preparation to obtain a permit for a license, corresponding to the position to begin work at the NPP; - Exams before the Nuclear Regulatory Agency (NRA) and licensing; - Shadow training at the working place; - Permission for unaided operation. The following positions are addressed by the simulator training: - Chief Plant Supervisor; - Shift Unit Supervisor; - Senior Reactor Operator; - Simulator Instructor; - Controller physicist; -Senior Turbine Operator; - Senior Operator of Turbine Feedwater Pumps of Kozloduy NPP. Improving of training method led to a reduction of number of significant events while worldwide practice proves that improvement of engineering resulted in an increase in the percentage of events, related to human factor. Analysis of human reliability in 2005 and 2006 in cooperation with representatives from Great Britain and the Technical University in Sofia were worked on the DTI NSP B

Validation of Land Cover Products Using Reliability Evaluation Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenzhong Shi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Validation of land cover products is a fundamental task prior to data applications. Current validation schemes and methods are, however, suited only for assessing classification accuracy and disregard the reliability of land cover products. The reliability evaluation of land cover products should be undertaken to provide reliable land cover information. In addition, the lack of high-quality reference data often constrains validation and affects the reliability results of land cover products. This study proposes a validation schema to evaluate the reliability of land cover products, including two methods, namely, result reliability evaluation and process reliability evaluation. Result reliability evaluation computes the reliability of land cover products using seven reliability indicators. Process reliability evaluation analyzes the reliability propagation in the data production process to obtain the reliability of land cover products. Fuzzy fault tree analysis is introduced and improved in the reliability analysis of a data production process. Research results show that the proposed reliability evaluation scheme is reasonable and can be applied to validate land cover products. Through the analysis of the seven indicators of result reliability evaluation, more information on land cover can be obtained for strategic decision-making and planning, compared with traditional accuracy assessment methods. Process reliability evaluation without the need for reference data can facilitate the validation and reflect the change trends of reliabilities to some extent.

Application of reliability methods in Ontario Hydro

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeppesen, R.; Ravishankar, T.J.

1985-01-01

Ontario Hydro have established a reliability program in support of its substantial nuclear program. Application of the reliability program to achieve both production and safety goals is described. The value of such a reliability program is evident in the record of Ontario Hydro's operating nuclear stations. The factors which have contributed to the success of the reliability program are identified as line management's commitment to reliability; selective and judicious application of reliability methods; establishing performance goals and monitoring the in-service performance; and collection, distribution, review and utilization of performance information to facilitate cost-effective achievement of goals and improvements. (orig.)

Development of a BN framework for human reliability analysis through virtual simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garg, Vipul; Santhosh, T.V.; Vinod, Gopika; Antony, P.D.

2017-01-01

Humans are an integral part of complex systems such as nuclear power plants and have to play a significant role in ensuring the safety and reliability of these systems. Failure to perform the intended task within the stipulated time by the operator can challenge the safety of the system. Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a widely practiced methodology to estimate the contribution of operator error towards the overall risk to the facility. HRA methods quantify this contribution in terms of human error probability (HEP) accounting for various psychological and physiological factors that influence the performance of the operator. These factors are referred to as human factors (HF), which enhance or degrade the human performance. The paper discusses the use of virtual simulation as a tool to generate the HF data from the virtual model of an in-house experimental facility. This paper also demonstrates the use of multi-attribute utility theory to determine a suitable HRA method amongst several HRA methods to quantify the HEP based on the desired set of HRA attributes. As classical HRA methods, generally, do not address the interactions among the HFs, the Bayesian network technique has been employed in this study to account for HF interactions. (author)

Assessment of Advanced Life Support competence when combining different test methods--reliability and validity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ringsted, C; Lippert, F; Hesselfeldt, R

2007-01-01

Cardiac Arrest Simulation Test (CASTest) scenarios for the assessments according to guidelines 2005. AIMS: To analyse the reliability and validity of the individual sub-tests provided by ERC and to find a combination of MCQ and CASTest that provides a reliable and valid single effect measure of ALS...... that possessed high reliability, equality of test sets, and ability to discriminate between the two groups of supposedly different ALS competence. CONCLUSIONS: ERC sub-tests of ALS competence possess sufficient reliability and validity. A combined ALS score with equal weighting of one MCQ and one CASTest can...... competence. METHODS: Two groups of participants were included in this randomised, controlled experimental study: a group of newly graduated doctors, who had not taken the ALS course (N=17) and a group of students, who had passed the ALS course 9 months before the study (N=16). Reliability in terms of inter...

Modeling and simulation of different and representative engineering problems using Network Simulation Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Pérez, J F; Marín, F; Morales, J L; Cánovas, M; Alhama, F

2018-01-01

Mathematical models simulating different and representative engineering problem, atomic dry friction, the moving front problems and elastic and solid mechanics are presented in the form of a set of non-linear, coupled or not coupled differential equations. For different parameters values that influence the solution, the problem is numerically solved by the network method, which provides all the variables of the problems. Although the model is extremely sensitive to the above parameters, no assumptions are considered as regards the linearization of the variables. The design of the models, which are run on standard electrical circuit simulation software, is explained in detail. The network model results are compared with common numerical methods or experimental data, published in the scientific literature, to show the reliability of the model.

Hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images.

Science.gov (United States)

De Wael, Annelies; De Backer, Annick; Jones, Lewys; Nellist, Peter D; Van Aert, Sandra

2017-06-01

A hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF STEM) images of monotype crystalline nanostructures is presented. Different atom-counting methods already exist for model-like systems. However, the increasing relevance of radiation damage in the study of nanostructures demands a method that allows atom-counting from low dose images with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, the hybrid method directly includes prior knowledge from image simulations into the existing statistics-based method for atom-counting, and accounts in this manner for possible discrepancies between actual and simulated experimental conditions. It is shown by means of simulations and experiments that this hybrid method outperforms the statistics-based method, especially for low electron doses and small nanoparticles. The analysis of a simulated low dose image of a small nanoparticle suggests that this method allows for far more reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Hierarchical Reliability Control Method for a Space Manipulator Based on the Strategy of Autonomous Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Gao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In order to maintain and enhance the operational reliability of a robotic manipulator deployed in space, an operational reliability system control method is presented in this paper. First, a method to divide factors affecting the operational reliability is proposed, which divides the operational reliability factors into task-related factors and cost-related factors. Then the models describing the relationships between the two kinds of factors and control variables are established. Based on this, a multivariable and multiconstraint optimization model is constructed. Second, a hierarchical system control model which incorporates the operational reliability factors is constructed. The control process of the space manipulator is divided into three layers: task planning, path planning, and motion control. Operational reliability related performance parameters are measured and used as the system’s feedback. Taking the factors affecting the operational reliability into consideration, the system can autonomously decide which control layer of the system should be optimized and how to optimize it using a control level adjustment decision module. The operational reliability factors affect these three control levels in the form of control variable constraints. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve a greater probability of meeting the task accuracy requirements, while extending the expected lifetime of the space manipulator.

Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Using Stochastic Response Surface Method with Sparse Grid Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qinghai Zhao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A mathematical framework is developed which integrates the reliability concept into topology optimization to solve reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO problems under uncertainty. Two typical methodologies have been presented and implemented, including the performance measure approach (PMA and the sequential optimization and reliability assessment (SORA. To enhance the computational efficiency of reliability analysis, stochastic response surface method (SRSM is applied to approximate the true limit state function with respect to the normalized random variables, combined with the reasonable design of experiments generated by sparse grid design, which was proven to be an effective and special discretization technique. The uncertainties such as material property and external loads are considered on three numerical examples: a cantilever beam, a loaded knee structure, and a heat conduction problem. Monte-Carlo simulations are also performed to verify the accuracy of the failure probabilities computed by the proposed approach. Based on the results, it is demonstrated that application of SRSM with SGD can produce an efficient reliability analysis in RBTO which enables a more reliable design than that obtained by DTO. It is also found that, under identical accuracy, SORA is superior to PMA in view of computational efficiency.

Usefulness of the Monte Carlo method in reliability calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lanore, J.M.; Kalli, H.

1977-01-01

Three examples of reliability Monte Carlo programs developed in the LEP (Laboratory for Radiation Shielding Studies in the Nuclear Research Center at Saclay) are presented. First, an uncertainty analysis is given for a simplified spray system; a Monte Carlo program PATREC-MC has been written to solve the problem with the system components given in the fault tree representation. The second program MONARC 2 has been written to solve the problem of complex systems reliability by the Monte Carlo simulation, here again the system (a residual heat removal system) is in the fault tree representation. Third, the Monte Carlo program MONARC was used instead of the Markov diagram to solve the simulation problem of an electric power supply including two nets and two stand-by diesels

Monte Carlo simulation based reliability evaluation in a multi-bilateral contracts market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, L.; Viswanath, P.A.; Wang, P.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique to evaluate customer load point reliability in multi-bilateral contracts market. The effects of bilateral transactions, reserve agreements, and the priority commitments of generating companies on customer load point reliability have been investigated. A generating company with bilateral contracts is modelled as an equivalent time varying multi-state generation (ETMG). A procedure to determine load point reliability based on ETMG has been developed. The developed procedure is applied to a reliability test system to illustrate the technique. Representing each bilateral contract by an ETMG provides flexibility in determining the reliability at various customer load points. (authors)

Modeling and simulation of different and representative engineering problems using Network Simulation Method

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

Mathematical models simulating different and representative engineering problem, atomic dry friction, the moving front problems and elastic and solid mechanics are presented in the form of a set of non-linear, coupled or not coupled differential equations. For different parameters values that influence the solution, the problem is numerically solved by the network method, which provides all the variables of the problems. Although the model is extremely sensitive to the above parameters, no assumptions are considered as regards the linearization of the variables. The design of the models, which are run on standard electrical circuit simulation software, is explained in detail. The network model results are compared with common numerical methods or experimental data, published in the scientific literature, to show the reliability of the model. PMID:29518121

Efficient Estimation of Extreme Non-linear Roll Motions using the First-order Reliability Method (FORM)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

2007-01-01

In on-board decision support systems efficient procedures are needed for real-time estimation of the maximum ship responses to be expected within the next few hours, given on-line information on the sea state and user defined ranges of possible headings and speeds. For linear responses standard...... frequency domain methods can be applied. To non-linear responses like the roll motion, standard methods like direct time domain simulations are not feasible due to the required computational time. However, the statistical distribution of non-linear ship responses can be estimated very accurately using...... the first-order reliability method (FORM), well-known from structural reliability problems. To illustrate the proposed procedure, the roll motion is modelled by a simplified non-linear procedure taking into account non-linear hydrodynamic damping, time-varying restoring and wave excitation moments...

Structural Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiyu Jiang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a detailed review of the state-of-the-art research activities on structural reliability analysis of wind turbines between the 1990s and 2017. We describe the reliability methods including the first- and second-order reliability methods and the simulation reliability methods and show the procedure for and application areas of structural reliability analysis of wind turbines. Further, we critically review the various structural reliability studies on rotor blades, bottom-fixed support structures, floating systems and mechanical and electrical components. Finally, future applications of structural reliability methods to wind turbine designs are discussed.

Efficient reliability analysis of structures with the rotational quasi-symmetric point- and the maximum entropy methods

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jun; Dang, Chao; Kong, Fan

2017-10-01

This paper presents a new method for efficient structural reliability analysis. In this method, a rotational quasi-symmetric point method (RQ-SPM) is proposed for evaluating the fractional moments of the performance function. Then, the derivation of the performance function's probability density function (PDF) is carried out based on the maximum entropy method in which constraints are specified in terms of fractional moments. In this regard, the probability of failure can be obtained by a simple integral over the performance function's PDF. Six examples, including a finite element-based reliability analysis and a dynamic system with strong nonlinearity, are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed method. All the computed results are compared with those by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It is found that the proposed method can provide very accurate results with low computational effort.

The reliability of a modified Kalamazoo Consensus Statement Checklist for assessing the communication skills of multidisciplinary clinicians in the simulated environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Eleanor B; Calhoun, Aaron W; Rider, Elizabeth A

2014-09-01

With increased recognition of the importance of sound communication skills and communication skills education, reliable assessment tools are essential. This study reports on the psychometric properties of an assessment tool based on the Kalamazoo Consensus Statement Essential Elements Communication Checklist. The Gap-Kalamazoo Communication Skills Assessment Form (GKCSAF), a modified version of an existing communication skills assessment tool, the Kalamazoo Essential Elements Communication Checklist-Adapted, was used to assess learners in a multidisciplinary, simulation-based communication skills educational program using multiple raters. 118 simulated conversations were available for analysis. Internal consistency and inter-rater reliability were determined by calculating a Cronbach's alpha score and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC), respectively. The GKCSAF demonstrated high internal consistency with a Cronbach's alpha score of 0.844 (faculty raters) and 0.880 (peer observer raters), and high inter-rater reliability with an ICC of 0.830 (faculty raters) and 0.89 (peer observer raters). The Gap-Kalamazoo Communication Skills Assessment Form is a reliable method of assessing the communication skills of multidisciplinary learners using multi-rater methods within the learning environment. The Gap-Kalamazoo Communication Skills Assessment Form can be used by educational programs that wish to implement a reliable assessment and feedback system for a variety of learners. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

DEPEND-HRA-A method for consideration of dependency in human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, Marko

2008-01-01

A consideration of dependencies between human actions is an important issue within the human reliability analysis. A method was developed, which integrates the features of existing methods and the experience from a full scope plant simulator. The method is used on real plant-specific human reliability analysis as a part of the probabilistic safety assessment of a nuclear power plant. The method distinguishes dependency for pre-initiator events from dependency for initiator and post-initiator events. The method identifies dependencies based on scenarios, where consecutive human actions are modeled, and based on a list of minimal cut sets, which is obtained by running the minimal cut set analysis considering high values of human error probabilities in the evaluation. A large example study, which consisted of a large number of human failure events, demonstrated the applicability of the method. Comparative analyses that were performed show that both selection of dependency method and selection of dependency levels within the method largely impact the results of probabilistic safety assessment. If the core damage frequency is not impacted much, the listings of important basic events in terms of risk increase and risk decrease factors may change considerably. More efforts are needed on the subject, which will prepare the background for more detailed guidelines, which will remove the subjectivity from the evaluations as much as it is possible

MAPPS (Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation): a computer simulation model for human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.

1985-01-01

A computer model has been developed, sensitivity tested, and evaluated capable of generating reliable estimates of human performance measures in the nuclear power plant (NPP) maintenance context. The model, entitled MAPPS (Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation), is of the simulation type and is task-oriented. It addresses a number of person-machine, person-environment, and person-person variables and is capable of providing the user with a rich spectrum of important performance measures including mean time for successful task performance by a maintenance team and maintenance team probability of task success. These two measures are particularly important for input to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies which were the primary impetus for the development of MAPPS. The simulation nature of the model along with its generous input parameters and output variables allows its usefulness to extend beyond its input to PRA

Real-time tumor ablation simulation based on the dynamic mode decomposition method

KAUST Repository

Bourantas, George C.; Ghommem, Mehdi; Kagadis, George C.; Katsanos, Konstantinos H.; Loukopoulos, Vassilios C.; Burganos, Vasilis N.; Nikiforidis, George C.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) method is used to provide a reliable forecasting of tumor ablation treatment simulation in real time, which is quite needed in medical practice. To achieve this, an extended Pennes bioheat model must

Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

OpenAIRE

Hai An; Ling Zhou; Hui Sun

2016-01-01

Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new...

Design of thermoelectric modules for both mechanical reliability and performance using FE simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sarhadi, Ali; Bjørk, Rasmus; Pryds, Nini

for these two objectives. The current study deals with FE simulation of the TE modules to optimize their geometrical dimension in terms of mechanical reliability and performance. First, FE simulation of a TE module consisting of bismuth telluride alloys is carried out and the induced thermal stresses, output......, the geometrical dimensions of the TE elements for both mechanical reliability and performance are optimized to obtain a compromise design. The present work provides a basis for optimizing the TE modules in terms of their life time and performance.......Thermo-mechanical modeling of the TE modules provides an efficient tool for assessing the mechanical strength of the modules against the induced thermal stresses and subsequently optimizing them in terms of the mechanical reliability. However, the design of TE modules in terms of mechanical...

Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuyong Chen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic reliability index and to narrow the range of the nonprobabilistic reliability index. If the range of the reliability index reduces to an acceptable accuracy, the solution will be considered convergent, and the nonprobabilistic reliability index will be obtained. The case study indicates that using the proposed method can avoid oscillating iteration process, make iteration process stable and convergent, reduce iteration steps significantly, and improve computational efficiency and precision significantly compared with the traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method. Finally, the nonprobabilistic reliability evaluation process of bridge will be built through evaluating the reliability of one PC continuous rigid frame bridge with three spans using the proposed method, which appears to be more simple and reliable when lack of samples and parameters in the bridge nonprobabilistic reliability evaluation is present.

A rapid reliability estimation method for directed acyclic lifeline networks with statistically dependent components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Won-Hee; Kliese, Alyce

2014-01-01

Lifeline networks, such as transportation, water supply, sewers, telecommunications, and electrical and gas networks, are essential elements for the economic and societal functions of urban areas, but their components are highly susceptible to natural or man-made hazards. In this context, it is essential to provide effective pre-disaster hazard mitigation strategies and prompt post-disaster risk management efforts based on rapid system reliability assessment. This paper proposes a rapid reliability estimation method for node-pair connectivity analysis of lifeline networks especially when the network components are statistically correlated. Recursive procedures are proposed to compound all network nodes until they become a single super node representing the connectivity between the origin and destination nodes. The proposed method is applied to numerical network examples and benchmark interconnected power and water networks in Memphis, Shelby County. The connectivity analysis results show the proposed method's reasonable accuracy and remarkable efficiency as compared to the Monte Carlo simulations

Contribution to improving reliability assessments of mechanical structural components requiring a high degree of safety using weighted Monte Carlo simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kutter, R

1981-12-04

Physical theories to inquire lifetime and reliability of mechanical structures or components under multiscale random stress do not exist. Today those dates were examinated e.g. in development of aircrafts and motorcars by fatigue-testing of original components and sections during long terms. Knowing the distributions of stress and material-parameters the same testing is to be realized simulationary on highspeed computers. This study gives methods to reduce the necessary computation time to attending ones even to proof reliability up to R=1-10/sup -9/. These methods were of Monte-Carlo-Simulation with weighted parameters and respect to life-history.

Reliability theory for repair service organization simulation and increase of innovative attraction of industrial enterprises

Science.gov (United States)

Dolzhenkova, E. V.; Iurieva, L. V.

2018-05-01

The study presents the author's algorithm for the industrial enterprise repair service organization simulation based on the reliability theory, as well as the results of its application. The monitoring of the industrial enterprise repair service organization is proposed to perform on the basis of the enterprise's state indexes for the main resources (equipment, labour, finances, repair areas), which allows quantitative evaluation of the reliability level as a resulting summary rating of the said parameters and the ensuring of an appropriate level of the operation reliability of the serviced technical objects. Under the conditions of the tough competition, the following approach is advisable: the higher efficiency of production and a repair service itself, the higher the innovative attractiveness of an industrial enterprise. The results of the calculations show that in order to prevent inefficient losses of production and to reduce the repair costs, it is advisable to apply the reliability theory. The overall reliability rating calculated on the basis of the author's algorithm has low values. The processing of the statistical data forms the reliability characteristics for the different workshops and services of an industrial enterprise, which allows one to define the failure rates of the various units of equipment and to establish the reliability indexes necessary for the subsequent mathematical simulation. The proposed simulating algorithm contributes to an increase of the efficiency of the repair service organization and improvement of the innovative attraction of an industrial enterprise.

A Method for Improving Reliability of Radiation Detection using Deep Learning Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Hojong; Kim, Tae-Ho; Han, Byunghun; Kim, Hyunduk; Kim, Ki-duk

2017-01-01

Radiation detection is essential technology for overall field of radiation and nuclear engineering. Previously, technology for radiation detection composes of preparation of the table of the input spectrum to output spectrum in advance, which requires simulation of numerous predicted output spectrum with simulation using parameters modeling the spectrum. In this paper, we propose new technique to improve the performance of radiation detector. The software in the radiation detector has been stagnant for a while with possible intrinsic error of simulation. In the proposed method, to predict the input source using output spectrum measured by radiation detector is performed using deep neural network. With highly complex model, we expect that the complex pattern between data and the label can be captured well. Furthermore, the radiation detector should be calibrated regularly and beforehand. We propose a method to calibrate radiation detector using GAN. We hope that the power of deep learning may also reach to radiation detectors and make huge improvement on the field. Using improved radiation detector, the reliability of detection would be confident, and there are many tasks remaining to solve using deep learning in nuclear engineering society.

Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ronald Laurids Boring

2010-11-01

This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boring, Ronald Laurids

2010-01-01

This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

Review of methods for the integration of reliability and design engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reilly, J.T.

1978-03-01

A review of methods for the integration of reliability and design engineering was carried out to establish a reliability program philosophy, an initial set of methods, and procedures to be used by both the designer and reliability analyst. The report outlines a set of procedures which implements a philosophy that requires increased involvement by the designer in reliability analysis. Discussions of each method reviewed include examples of its application

Comparison of a Material Point Method and a Galerkin Meshfree Method for the Simulation of Cohesive-Frictional Materials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilaria Iaconeta

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The simulation of large deformation problems, involving complex history-dependent constitutive laws, is of paramount importance in several engineering fields. Particular attention has to be paid to the choice of a suitable numerical technique such that reliable results can be obtained. In this paper, a Material Point Method (MPM and a Galerkin Meshfree Method (GMM are presented and verified against classical benchmarks in solid mechanics. The aim is to demonstrate the good behavior of the methods in the simulation of cohesive-frictional materials, both in static and dynamic regimes and in problems dealing with large deformations. The vast majority of MPM techniques in the literatrue are based on some sort of explicit time integration. The techniques proposed in the current work, on the contrary, are based on implicit approaches, which can also be easily adapted to the simulation of static cases. The two methods are presented so as to highlight the similarities to rather than the differences from “standard” Updated Lagrangian (UL approaches commonly employed by the Finite Elements (FE community. Although both methods are able to give a good prediction, it is observed that, under very large deformation of the medium, GMM lacks robustness due to its meshfree natrue, which makes the definition of the meshless shape functions more difficult and expensive than in MPM. On the other hand, the mesh-based MPM is demonstrated to be more robust and reliable for extremely large deformation cases.

Reliability of Estimation Pile Load Capacity Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yudhi Lastiasih

2014-04-01

Full Text Available None of numerous previous methods for predicting pile capacity is known how accurate any of them are when compared with the actual ultimate capacity of piles tested to failure. The author’s of the present paper have conducted such an analysis, based on 130 data sets of field loading tests. Out of these 130 data sets, only 44 could be analysed, of which 15 were conducted until the piles actually reached failure. The pile prediction methods used were: Brinch Hansen’s method (1963, Chin’s method (1970, Decourt’s Extrapolation Method (1999, Mazurkiewicz’s method (1972, Van der Veen’s method (1953, and the Quadratic Hyperbolic Method proposed by Lastiasih et al. (2012. It was obtained that all the above methods were sufficiently reliable when applied to data from pile loading tests that loaded to reach failure. However, when applied to data from pile loading tests that loaded without reaching failure, the methods that yielded lower values for correction factor N are more recommended. Finally, the empirical method of Reese and O’Neill (1988 was found to be reliable enough to be used to estimate the Qult of a pile foundation based on soil data only.

A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ESTIMATION METHOD TO NUCLEAR SAFETY SOFTWARE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEE-YONG PARK

2014-02-01

Full Text Available A method for estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed in this paper. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM, where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Two types of modeling schemes based on a particular underlying method are proposed in order to more precisely estimate and predict the number of software defects based on very rare software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating software test cases as a covariate into the model. It was identified that these models are capable of reasonably estimating the remaining number of software defects which directly affects the reactor trip functions. The software reliability might be estimated from these modeling equations, and one approach of obtaining software reliability value is proposed in this paper.

Method matters: Understanding diagnostic reliability in DSM-IV and DSM-5.

Science.gov (United States)

Chmielewski, Michael; Clark, Lee Anna; Bagby, R Michael; Watson, David

2015-08-01

Diagnostic reliability is essential for the science and practice of psychology, in part because reliability is necessary for validity. Recently, the DSM-5 field trials documented lower diagnostic reliability than past field trials and the general research literature, resulting in substantial criticism of the DSM-5 diagnostic criteria. Rather than indicating specific problems with DSM-5, however, the field trials may have revealed long-standing diagnostic issues that have been hidden due to a reliance on audio/video recordings for estimating reliability. We estimated the reliability of DSM-IV diagnoses using both the standard audio-recording method and the test-retest method used in the DSM-5 field trials, in which different clinicians conduct separate interviews. Psychiatric patients (N = 339) were diagnosed using the SCID-I/P; 218 were diagnosed a second time by an independent interviewer. Diagnostic reliability using the audio-recording method (N = 49) was "good" to "excellent" (M κ = .80) and comparable to the DSM-IV field trials estimates. Reliability using the test-retest method (N = 218) was "poor" to "fair" (M κ = .47) and similar to DSM-5 field-trials' estimates. Despite low test-retest diagnostic reliability, self-reported symptoms were highly stable. Moreover, there was no association between change in self-report and change in diagnostic status. These results demonstrate the influence of method on estimates of diagnostic reliability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Analysis of Monte Carlo methods for the simulation of photon transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlsson, G.A.; Kusoffsky, L.

1975-01-01

In connection with the transport of low-energy photons (30 - 140 keV) through layers of water of different thicknesses, various aspects of Monte Carlo methods are examined in order to improve their effectivity (to produce statistically more reliable results with shorter computer times) and to bridge the gap between more physical methods and more mathematical ones. The calculations are compared with results of experiments involving the simulation of photon transport, using direct methods and collision density ones (J.S.)

The psychophysiological assessment method for pilot's professional reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, L M; Yu, L S; Wang, K N; Jing, B S; Fang, C

1997-05-01

Previous research has shown that a pilot's professional reliability depends on two relative factors: the pilot's functional state and the demands of task workload. The Psychophysiological Reserve Capacity (PRC) is defined as a pilot's ability to accomplish additive tasks without reducing the performance of the primary task (flight task). We hypothesized that the PRC was a mirror of the pilot's functional state. The purpose of this study was to probe the psychophysiological method for evaluating a pilot's professional reliability on a simulator. The PRC Comprehensive Evaluating System (PRCCES) which was used in the experiment included four subsystems: a) quantitative evaluation system for pilot's performance on simulator; b) secondary task display and quantitative estimating system; c) multiphysiological data monitoring and statistical system; and d) comprehensive evaluation system for pilot PRC. Two studies were performed. In study one, 63 healthy and 13 hospitalized pilots participated. Each pilot performed a double 180 degrees circuit flight program with and without secondary task (three digit operation). The operator performance, score of secondary task and cost of physiological effort were measured and compared by PRCCES in the two conditions. Then, each pilot's flight skill in training was subjectively scored by instructor pilot ratings. In study two, 7 healthy pilots volunteered to take part in the experiment on the effects of sleep deprivation on pilot's PRC. Each participant had PRC tested pre- and post-8 h sleep deprivation. The results show that the PRC values of a healthy pilot was positively correlated with abilities of flexibility, operating and correcting deviation, attention distribution, and accuracy of instrument flight in the air (r = 0.27-0.40, p < 0.05), and negatively correlated with emotional anxiety in flight (r = -0.40, p < 0.05). The values of PRC in healthy pilots (0.61 +/- 0.17) were significantly higher than that of hospitalized pilots

Reliability of stellar inclination estimated from asteroseismology: analytical criteria, mock simulations and Kepler data analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiaka, Shoya; Benomar, Othman; Suto, Yasushi

2018-05-01

Advances in asteroseismology of solar-like stars, now provide a unique method to estimate the stellar inclination i⋆. This enables to evaluate the spin-orbit angle of transiting planetary systems, in a complementary fashion to the Rossiter-McLaughlineffect, a well-established method to estimate the projected spin-orbit angle λ. Although the asteroseismic method has been broadly applied to the Kepler data, its reliability has yet to be assessed intensively. In this work, we evaluate the accuracy of i⋆ from asteroseismology of solar-like stars using 3000 simulated power spectra. We find that the low signal-to-noise ratio of the power spectra induces a systematic under-estimate (over-estimate) bias for stars with high (low) inclinations. We derive analytical criteria for the reliable asteroseismic estimate, which indicates that reliable measurements are possible in the range of 20° ≲ i⋆ ≲ 80° only for stars with high signal-to-noise ratio. We also analyse and measure the stellar inclination of 94 Kepler main-sequence solar-like stars, among which 33 are planetary hosts. According to our reliability criteria, a third of them (9 with planets, 22 without) have accurate stellar inclination. Comparison of our asteroseismic estimate of vsin i⋆ against spectroscopic measurements indicates that the latter suffers from a large uncertainty possibly due to the modeling of macro-turbulence, especially for stars with projected rotation speed vsin i⋆ ≲ 5km/s. This reinforces earlier claims, and the stellar inclination estimated from the combination of measurements from spectroscopy and photometric variation for slowly rotating stars needs to be interpreted with caution.

Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanjilal, Oindrila, E-mail: oindrila@civil.iisc.ernet.in; Manohar, C.S., E-mail: manohar@civil.iisc.ernet.in

2017-07-15

The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • The distance minimizing control forces minimize a bound on the sampling variance. • Establishing Girsanov controls via solution of a two-point boundary value problem. • Girsanov controls via Volterra's series representation for the transfer functions.

Model reliability and software quality assurance in simulation of nuclear fuel waste management systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oeren, T.I.; Elzas, M.S.; Sheng, G.; Wageningen Agricultural Univ., Netherlands; McMaster Univ., Hamilton, Ontario)

1985-01-01

As is the case with all scientific simulation studies, computerized simulation of nuclear fuel waste management systems can introduce and hide various types of errors. Frameworks to clarify issues of model reliability and software quality assurance are offered. Potential problems with reference to the main areas of concern for reliability and quality are discussed; e.g., experimental issues, decomposition, scope, fidelity, verification, requirements, testing, correctness, robustness are treated with reference to the experience gained in the past. A list comprising over 80 most common computerization errors is provided. Software tools and techniques used to detect and to correct computerization errors are discussed

Reliability analysis of reactor pressure vessel intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng Liangang; Lu Yongbo

2012-01-01

This paper performs the reliability analysis of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) with ANSYS. The analysis method include direct Monte Carlo Simulation method, Latin Hypercube Sampling, central composite design and Box-Behnken Matrix design. The RPV integrity reliability under given input condition is proposed. The result shows that the effects on the RPV base material reliability are internal press, allowable basic stress and elasticity modulus of base material in descending order, and the effects on the bolt reliability are allowable basic stress of bolt material, preload of bolt and internal press in descending order. (authors)

Quantum control with NMR methods: Application to quantum simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Negrevergne, Camille

2002-01-01

Manipulating information according to quantum laws allows improvements in the efficiency of the way we treat certain problems. Liquid state Nuclear Magnetic Resonance methods allow us to initialize, manipulate and read the quantum state of a system of coupled spins. These methods have been used to realize an experimental small Quantum Information Processor (QIP) able to process information through around hundred elementary operations. One of the main themes of this work was to design, optimize and validate reliable RF-pulse sequences used to 'program' the QIP. Such techniques have been used to run a quantum simulation algorithm for anionic systems. Some experimental results have been obtained on the determination of Eigen energies and correlation function for a toy problem consisting of fermions on a lattice, showing an experimental proof of principle for such quantum simulations. (author) [fr

Advances in methods and applications of reliability and safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fieandt, J.; Hossi, H.; Laakso, K.; Lyytikaeinen, A.; Niemelae, I.; Pulkkinen, U.; Pulli, T.

1986-01-01

The know-how of the reliability and safety design and analysis techniques of Vtt has been established over several years in analyzing the reliability in the Finnish nuclear power plants Loviisa and Olkiluoto. This experience has been later on applied and developed to be used in the process industry, conventional power industry, automation and electronics. VTT develops and transfers methods and tools for reliability and safety analysis to the private and public sectors. The technology transfer takes place in joint development projects with potential users. Several computer-aided methods, such as RELVEC for reliability modelling and analysis, have been developed. The tool developed are today used by major Finnish companies in the fields of automation, nuclear power, shipbuilding and electronics. Development of computer-aided and other methods needed in analysis of operating experience, reliability or safety is further going on in a number of research and development projects

Reliability of single aliquot regenerative protocol (SAR) for dose estimation in quartz at different burial temperatures: A simulation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koul, D.K.; Pagonis, V.; Patil, P.

2016-01-01

The single aliquot regenerative protocol (SAR) is a well-established technique for estimating naturally acquired radiation doses in quartz. This simulation work examines the reliability of SAR protocol for samples which experienced different ambient temperatures in nature in the range of −10 to 40 °C. The contribution of various experimental variables used in SAR protocols to the accuracy and precision of the method is simulated for different ambient temperatures. Specifically the effects of paleo-dose, test dose, pre-heating temperature and cut-heat temperature on the accuracy of equivalent dose (ED) estimation are simulated by using random combinations of the concentrations of traps and centers using a previously published comprehensive quartz model. The findings suggest that the ambient temperature has a significant bearing on the reliability of natural dose estimation using SAR protocol, especially for ambient temperatures above 0 °C. The main source of these inaccuracies seems to be thermal sensitization of the quartz samples caused by the well-known thermal transfer of holes between luminescence centers in quartz. The simulations suggest that most of this inaccuracy in the dose estimation can be removed by delivering the laboratory doses in pulses (pulsed irradiation procedures). - Highlights: • Ambient temperatures affect the reliability of SAR. • It overestimates the dose with increase in burial temperature and burial time periods. • Elevated temperature irradiation does not correct for these overestimations. • Inaccuracies in dose estimation can be removed by incorporating pulsed irradiation procedures.

Reliability methods in nuclear power plant ageing management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.

1999-01-01

The aim of nuclear power plant ageing management is to maintain an adequate safety level throughout the lifetime of the plant. In ageing studies, the reliability of components, systems and structures is evaluated taking into account the possible time-dependent degradation. The phases of ageing analyses are generally the identification of critical components, identification and evaluation of ageing effects, and development of mitigation methods. This thesis focuses on the use of reliability methods and analyses of plant- specific operating experience in nuclear power plant ageing studies. The presented applications and method development have been related to nuclear power plants, but many of the approaches can also be applied outside the nuclear industry. The thesis consists of a summary and seven publications. The summary provides an overview of ageing management and discusses the role of reliability methods in ageing analyses. In the publications, practical applications and method development are described in more detail. The application areas at component and system level are motor-operated valves and protection automation systems, for which experience-based ageing analyses have been demonstrated. Furthermore, Bayesian ageing models for repairable components have been developed, and the management of ageing by improving maintenance practices is discussed. Recommendations for improvement of plant information management in order to facilitate ageing analyses are also given. The evaluation and mitigation of ageing effects on structural components is addressed by promoting the use of probabilistic modelling of crack growth, and developing models for evaluation of the reliability of inspection results. (orig.)

Reliability methods in nuclear power plant ageing management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simola, K. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

1999-07-01

The aim of nuclear power plant ageing management is to maintain an adequate safety level throughout the lifetime of the plant. In ageing studies, the reliability of components, systems and structures is evaluated taking into account the possible time-dependent degradation. The phases of ageing analyses are generally the identification of critical components, identification and evaluation of ageing effects, and development of mitigation methods. This thesis focuses on the use of reliability methods and analyses of plant- specific operating experience in nuclear power plant ageing studies. The presented applications and method development have been related to nuclear power plants, but many of the approaches can also be applied outside the nuclear industry. The thesis consists of a summary and seven publications. The summary provides an overview of ageing management and discusses the role of reliability methods in ageing analyses. In the publications, practical applications and method development are described in more detail. The application areas at component and system level are motor-operated valves and protection automation systems, for which experience-based ageing analyses have been demonstrated. Furthermore, Bayesian ageing models for repairable components have been developed, and the management of ageing by improving maintenance practices is discussed. Recommendations for improvement of plant information management in order to facilitate ageing analyses are also given. The evaluation and mitigation of ageing effects on structural components is addressed by promoting the use of probabilistic modelling of crack growth, and developing models for evaluation of the reliability of inspection results. (orig.)

Experiences using DAKOTA stochastic expansion methods in computational simulations.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Templeton, Jeremy Alan; Ruthruff, Joseph R.

2012-01-01

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods bring rigorous statistical connections to the analysis of computational and experiment data, and provide a basis for probabilistically assessing margins associated with safety and reliability. The DAKOTA toolkit developed at Sandia National Laboratories implements a number of UQ methods, which are being increasingly adopted by modeling and simulation teams to facilitate these analyses. This report disseminates results as to the performance of DAKOTA's stochastic expansion methods for UQ on a representative application. Our results provide a number of insights that may be of interest to future users of these methods, including the behavior of the methods in estimating responses at varying probability levels, and the expansion levels for the methodologies that may be needed to achieve convergence.

Multi-Level Simulated Fault Injection for Data Dependent Reliability Analysis of RTL Circuit Descriptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NIMARA, S.

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes data-dependent reliability evaluation methodology for digital systems described at Register Transfer Level (RTL. It uses a hybrid hierarchical approach, combining the accuracy provided by Gate Level (GL Simulated Fault Injection (SFI and the low simulation overhead required by RTL fault injection. The methodology comprises the following steps: the correct simulation of the RTL system, according to a set of input vectors, hierarchical decomposition of the system into basic RTL blocks, logic synthesis of basic RTL blocks, data-dependent SFI for the GL netlists, and RTL SFI. The proposed methodology has been validated in terms of accuracy on a medium sized circuit – the parallel comparator used in Check Node Unit (CNU of the Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC decoders. The methodology has been applied for the reliability analysis of a 128-bit Advanced Encryption Standard (AES crypto-core, for which the GL simulation was prohibitive in terms of required computational resources.

Finite element reliability analysis of fatigue life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harkness, H.H.; Belytschko, T.; Liu, W.K.

1992-01-01

Fatigue reliability is addressed by the first-order reliability method combined with a finite element method. Two-dimensional finite element models of components with cracks in mode I are considered with crack growth treated by the Paris law. Probability density functions of the variables affecting fatigue are proposed to reflect a setting where nondestructive evaluation is used, and the Rosenblatt transformation is employed to treat non-Gaussian random variables. Comparisons of the first-order reliability results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the accuracy of the first-order reliability method is quite good in this setting. Results show that the upper portion of the initial crack length probability density function is crucial to reliability, which suggests that if nondestructive evaluation is used, the probability of detection curve plays a key role in reliability. (orig.)

Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on subset simulation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Dongqing; Wang Baosheng; Zhang Jianmin; Jiang Jing

2012-01-01

In order to solve the problem of multi-dimensional epistemic uncertainties and small functional failure probability of passive systems, an innovative reliability analysis algorithm called subset simulation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo was presented. The method is found on the idea that a small failure probability can be expressed as a product of larger conditional failure probabilities by introducing a proper choice of intermediate failure events. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to efficiently generate conditional samples for estimating the conditional failure probabilities. Taking the AP1000 passive residual heat removal system, for example, the uncertainties related to the model of a passive system and the numerical values of its input parameters were considered in this paper. And then the probability of functional failure was estimated with subset simulation method. The numerical results demonstrate that subset simulation method has the high computing efficiency and excellent computing accuracy compared with traditional probability analysis methods. (authors)

Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hai An

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new hybrid reliability index definition is presented based on the random–fuzzy–interval model. Furthermore, the calculation flowchart of the hybrid reliability index is presented and it is solved using the modified limit-step length iterative algorithm, which ensures convergence. And the validity of convergent algorithm for the hybrid reliability model is verified through the calculation examples in literature. In the end, a numerical example is demonstrated to show that the hybrid reliability index is applicable for the wear reliability assessment of mechanisms, where truncated random variables, fuzzy random variables, and interval variables coexist. The demonstration also shows the good convergence of the iterative algorithm proposed in this article.

Comparison of Model Reliabilities from Single-Step and Bivariate Blending Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taskinen, Matti; Mäntysaari, Esa; Lidauer, Martin

2013-01-01

Model based reliabilities in genetic evaluation are compared between three methods: animal model BLUP, single-step BLUP, and bivariate blending after genomic BLUP. The original bivariate blending is revised in this work to better account animal models. The study data is extracted from...... be calculated. Model reliabilities by the single-step and the bivariate blending methods were higher than by animal model due to genomic information. Compared to the single-step method, the bivariate blending method reliability estimates were, in general, lower. Computationally bivariate blending method was......, on the other hand, lighter than the single-step method....

Reliability of numerical wind tunnels for VAWT simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castelli, M. Raciti; Masi, M.; Battisti, L.; Benini, E.; Brighenti, A.; Dossena, V.; Persico, G.

2016-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based on the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) equations have long been widely used to study vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs). Following a comprehensive experimental survey on the wakes downwind of a troposkien-shaped rotor, a campaign of bi-dimensional simulations is presented here, with the aim of assessing its reliability in reproducing the main features of the flow, also identifying areas needing additional research. Starting from both a well consolidated turbulence model (k-ω SST) and an unstructured grid typology, the main simulation settings are here manipulated in a convenient form to tackle rotating grids reproducing a VAWT operating in an open jet wind tunnel. The dependence of the numerical predictions from the selected grid spacing is investigated, thus establishing the less refined grid size that is still capable of capturing some relevant flow features such as integral quantities (rotor torque) and local ones (wake velocities). (paper)

Reliability of numerical wind tunnels for VAWT simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Raciti Castelli, M.; Masi, M.; Battisti, L.; Benini, E.; Brighenti, A.; Dossena, V.; Persico, G.

2016-09-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based on the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) equations have long been widely used to study vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs). Following a comprehensive experimental survey on the wakes downwind of a troposkien-shaped rotor, a campaign of bi-dimensional simulations is presented here, with the aim of assessing its reliability in reproducing the main features of the flow, also identifying areas needing additional research. Starting from both a well consolidated turbulence model (k-ω SST) and an unstructured grid typology, the main simulation settings are here manipulated in a convenient form to tackle rotating grids reproducing a VAWT operating in an open jet wind tunnel. The dependence of the numerical predictions from the selected grid spacing is investigated, thus establishing the less refined grid size that is still capable of capturing some relevant flow features such as integral quantities (rotor torque) and local ones (wake velocities).

Quality and Reliability of Large-Eddy Simulations II

CERN Document Server

Salvetti, Maria Vittoria; Meyers, Johan; Sagaut, Pierre

2011-01-01

The second Workshop on "Quality and Reliability of Large-Eddy Simulations", QLES2009, was held at the University of Pisa from September 9 to September 11, 2009. Its predecessor, QLES2007, was organized in 2007 in Leuven (Belgium). The focus of QLES2009 was on issues related to predicting, assessing and assuring the quality of LES. The main goal of QLES2009 was to enhance the knowledge on error sources and on their interaction in LES and to devise criteria for the prediction and optimization of simulation quality, by bringing together mathematicians, physicists and engineers and providing a platform specifically addressing these aspects for LES. Contributions were made by leading experts in the field. The present book contains the written contributions to QLES2009 and is divided into three parts, which reflect the main topics addressed at the workshop: (i) SGS modeling and discretization errors; (ii) Assessment and reduction of computational errors; (iii) Mathematical analysis and foundation for SGS modeling.

Test Reliability at the Individual Level

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yueqin; Nesselroade, John R.; Erbacher, Monica K.; Boker, Steven M.; Burt, S. Alexandra; Keel, Pamela K.; Neale, Michael C.; Sisk, Cheryl L.; Klump, Kelly

2016-01-01

Reliability has a long history as one of the key psychometric properties of a test. However, a given test might not measure people equally reliably. Test scores from some individuals may have considerably greater error than others. This study proposed two approaches using intraindividual variation to estimate test reliability for each person. A simulation study suggested that the parallel tests approach and the structural equation modeling approach recovered the simulated reliability coefficients. Then in an empirical study, where forty-five females were measured daily on the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) for 45 consecutive days, separate estimates of reliability were generated for each person. Results showed that reliability estimates of the PANAS varied substantially from person to person. The methods provided in this article apply to tests measuring changeable attributes and require repeated measures across time on each individual. This article also provides a set of parallel forms of PANAS. PMID:28936107

Reliability evaluation of microgrid considering incentive-based demand response

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ting-Cheng; Zhang, Yong-Jun

2017-07-01

Incentive-based demand response (IBDR) can guide customers to adjust their behaviour of electricity and curtail load actively. Meanwhile, distributed generation (DG) and energy storage system (ESS) can provide time for the implementation of IBDR. The paper focus on the reliability evaluation of microgrid considering IBDR. Firstly, the mechanism of IBDR and its impact on power supply reliability are analysed. Secondly, the IBDR dispatch model considering customer’s comprehensive assessment and the customer response model are developed. Thirdly, the reliability evaluation method considering IBDR based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Finally, the validity of the above models and method is studied through numerical tests on modified RBTS Bus6 test system. Simulation results demonstrated that IBDR can improve the reliability of microgrid.

Reliability and safety engineering

CERN Document Server

Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

2016-01-01

Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

Discrete Event Simulation Method as a Tool for Improvement of Manufacturing Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrian Kampa

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The problem of production flow in manufacturing systems is analyzed. The machines can be operated by workers or by robots, since breakdowns and human factors destabilize the production processes that robots are preferred to perform. The problem is how to determine the real difference in work efficiency between humans and robots. We present an analysis of the production efficiency and reliability of the press shop lines operated by human operators or industrial robots. This is a problem from the field of Operations Research for which the Discrete Event Simulation (DES method has been used. Three models have been developed, including the manufacturing line before and after robotization, taking into account stochastic parameters of availability and reliability of the machines, operators, and robots. We apply the OEE (Overall Equipment Effectiveness indicator to present how the availability, reliability, and quality parameters influence the performance of the workstations, especially in the short run and in the long run. In addition, the stability of the simulation model was analyzed. This approach enables a better representation of real manufacturing processes.

Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

CERN Document Server

Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

2013-01-01

Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

Results of a Demonstration Assessment of Passive System Reliability Utilizing the Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia; Grelle, Austin

2015-04-26

Advanced small modular reactor designs include many advantageous design features such as passively driven safety systems that are arguably more reliable and cost effective relative to conventional active systems. Despite their attractiveness, a reliability assessment of passive systems can be difficult using conventional reliability methods due to the nature of passive systems. Simple deviations in boundary conditions can induce functional failures in a passive system, and intermediate or unexpected operating modes can also occur. As part of an ongoing project, Argonne National Laboratory is investigating various methodologies to address passive system reliability. The Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS), a systematic approach for examining reliability, is one technique chosen for this analysis. This methodology is combined with the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) approach to assess the reliability of a passive system and the impact of its associated uncertainties. For this demonstration problem, an integrated plant model of an advanced small modular pool-type sodium fast reactor with a passive reactor cavity cooling system is subjected to a station blackout using RELAP5-3D. This paper discusses important aspects of the reliability assessment, including deployment of the methodology, the uncertainty identification and quantification process, and identification of key risk metrics.

A fast and reliable method for simultaneous waveform, amplitude and latency estimation of single-trial EEG/MEG data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wouter D Weeda

Full Text Available The amplitude and latency of single-trial EEG/MEG signals may provide valuable information concerning human brain functioning. In this article we propose a new method to reliably estimate single-trial amplitude and latency of EEG/MEG signals. The advantages of the method are fourfold. First, no a-priori specified template function is required. Second, the method allows for multiple signals that may vary independently in amplitude and/or latency. Third, the method is less sensitive to noise as it models data with a parsimonious set of basis functions. Finally, the method is very fast since it is based on an iterative linear least squares algorithm. A simulation study shows that the method yields reliable estimates under different levels of latency variation and signal-to-noise ratioÕs. Furthermore, it shows that the existence of multiple signals can be correctly determined. An application to empirical data from a choice reaction time study indicates that the method describes these data accurately.

Model of load balancing using reliable algorithm with multi-agent system

Science.gov (United States)

Afriansyah, M. F.; Somantri, M.; Riyadi, M. A.

2017-04-01

Massive technology development is linear with the growth of internet users which increase network traffic activity. It also increases load of the system. The usage of reliable algorithm and mobile agent in distributed load balancing is a viable solution to handle the load issue on a large-scale system. Mobile agent works to collect resource information and can migrate according to given task. We propose reliable load balancing algorithm using least time first byte (LFB) combined with information from the mobile agent. In system overview, the methodology consisted of defining identification system, specification requirements, network topology and design system infrastructure. The simulation method for simulated system was using 1800 request for 10 s from the user to the server and taking the data for analysis. Software simulation was based on Apache Jmeter by observing response time and reliability of each server and then compared it with existing method. Results of performed simulation show that the LFB method with mobile agent can perform load balancing with efficient systems to all backend server without bottleneck, low risk of server overload, and reliable.

Assessment of modern methods of human factor reliability analysis in PSA studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holy, J.

2001-12-01

The report is structured as follows: Classical terms and objects (Probabilistic safety assessment as a framework for human reliability assessment; Human failure within the PSA model; Basic types of operator failure modelled in a PSA study and analyzed by HRA methods; Qualitative analysis of human reliability; Quantitative analysis of human reliability used; Process of analysis of nuclear reactor operator reliability in a PSA study); New terms and objects (Analysis of dependences; Errors of omission; Errors of commission; Error forcing context); and Overview and brief assessment of human reliability analysis (Basic characteristics of the methods; Assets and drawbacks of the use of each of HRA method; History and prospects of the use of the methods). (P.A.)

Method for assessing reliability of a network considering probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2005-01-01

A method for assessment of reliability of the network is developed, which uses the features of the fault tree analysis. The method is developed in a way that the increase of the network under consideration does not require significant increase of the model. The method is applied to small examples of network consisting of a small number of nodes and a small number of their connections. The results give the network reliability. They identify equipment, which is to be carefully maintained in order that the network reliability is not reduced, and equipment, which is a candidate for redundancy, as this would improve network reliability significantly. (author)

GPUs, a new tool of acceleration in CFD: efficiency and reliability on smoothed particle hydrodynamics methods.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro C Crespo

Full Text Available Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH is a numerical method commonly used in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD to simulate complex free-surface flows. Simulations with this mesh-free particle method far exceed the capacity of a single processor. In this paper, as part of a dual-functioning code for either central processing units (CPUs or Graphics Processor Units (GPUs, a parallelisation using GPUs is presented. The GPU parallelisation technique uses the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA of nVidia devices. Simulations with more than one million particles on a single GPU card exhibit speedups of up to two orders of magnitude over using a single-core CPU. It is demonstrated that the code achieves different speedups with different CUDA-enabled GPUs. The numerical behaviour of the SPH code is validated with a standard benchmark test case of dam break flow impacting on an obstacle where good agreement with the experimental results is observed. Both the achieved speed-ups and the quantitative agreement with experiments suggest that CUDA-based GPU programming can be used in SPH methods with efficiency and reliability.

Reliability analysis of numerical simulation in near field behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, Akira; Yamamoto, Kiyohito; Chijimatsu, Masakazu; Fujita, Tomoo

2008-01-01

The uncertainties of the boundary conditions, the elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio on the mechanical behavior at near field of high level radioactive waste repository were examined. The method used to examine the error propagation was the first order second moment method. The reliability of the maximum principal stress, maximum shear stress at crown of the tunnel and the minimum principal stress at spring line was examined for one million years. For elastic model, the reliability of the maximum shear stress gradually decreased while that of the maximum principle stress increased. That of the minimum principal stress was relatively low for one million years. This tendency was similar to that from the damage model. (author)

Assessment of the reliability of ultrasonic inspection methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haines, N.F.; Langston, D.B.; Green, A.J.; Wilson, R.

1982-01-01

The reliability of NDT techniques has remained an open question for many years. A reliable technique may be defined as one that, when rigorously applied by a number of inspection teams, consistently finds then correctly sizes all defects of concern. In this paper we report an assessment of the reliability of defect detection by manual ultrasonic methods applied to the inspection of thick section pressure vessel weldments. Initially we consider the available data relating to the inherent physical capabilities of ultrasonic techniques to detect cracks in weldment and then, independently, we assess the likely variability in team to team performance when several teams are asked to follow the same specified test procedure. The two aspects of 'capability' and 'variability' are brought together to provide quantitative estimates of the overall reliability of ultrasonic inspection of thick section pressure vessel weldments based on currently existing data. The final section of the paper considers current research programmes on reliability and presents a view on how these will help to further improve NDT reliability. (author)

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ENTROPY METHOD FOR SYSTEM CONSISTED OF IDENTICAL EXPONENTIAL UNITS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Sun Youchao; Shi Jun

2004-01-01

The reliability assessment of unit-system near two levels is the most important content in the reliability multi-level synthesis of complex systems. Introducing the information theory into system reliability assessment, using the addible characteristic of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, an entropy method of data information conversion is presented for the system consisted of identical exponential units. The basic conversion formulae of entropy method of unit test data are derived based on the principle of information quantity equivalence. The general models of entropy method synthesis assessment for system reliability approximate lower limits are established according to the fundamental principle of the unit reliability assessment. The applications of the entropy method are discussed by way of practical examples. Compared with the traditional methods, the entropy method is found to be valid and practicable and the assessment results are very satisfactory.

Reliability Estimation of the Pultrusion Process Using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baran, Ismet; Tutum, Cem Celal; Hattel, Jesper Henri

2013-01-01

In the present study the reliability estimation of the pultrusion process of a flat plate is analyzed by using the first order reliability method (FORM). The implementation of the numerical process model is validated by comparing the deterministic temperature and cure degree profiles...... with corresponding analyses in the literature. The centerline degree of cure at the exit (CDOCE) being less than a critical value and the maximum composite temperature (Tmax) during the process being greater than a critical temperature are selected as the limit state functions (LSFs) for the FORM. The cumulative...

A method to assign failure rates for piping reliability assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gamble, R.M.; Tagart, S.W. Jr.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on a simplified method that has been developed to assign failure rates that can be used in reliability and risk studies of piping. The method can be applied on a line-by-line basis by identifying line and location specific attributes that can lead to piping unreliability from in-service degradation mechanisms and random events. A survey of service experience for nuclear piping reliability also was performed. The data from this survey provides a basis for identifying in-service failure attributes and assigning failure rates for risk and reliability studies

A reliability evaluation method for NPP safety DCS application software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Yunjian; Zhang Lei; Liu Yuan

2014-01-01

In the field of nuclear power plant (NPP) digital i and c application, reliability evaluation for safety DCS application software is a key obstacle to be removed. In order to quantitatively evaluate reliability of NPP safety DCS application software, this paper propose a reliability evaluating method based on software development life cycle every stage's v and v defects density characteristics, by which the operating reliability level of the software can be predicted before its delivery, and helps to improve the reliability of NPP safety important software. (authors)

Characteristics and application study of AP1000 NPPs equipment reliability classification method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guan Gao

2013-01-01

AP1000 nuclear power plant applies an integrated approach to establish equipment reliability classification, which includes probabilistic risk assessment technique, maintenance rule administrative, power production reliability classification and functional equipment group bounding method, and eventually classify equipment reliability into 4 levels. This classification process and result are very different from classical RCM and streamlined RCM. It studied the characteristic of AP1000 equipment reliability classification approach, considered that equipment reliability classification should effectively support maintenance strategy development and work process control, recommended to use a combined RCM method to establish the future equipment reliability program of AP1000 nuclear power plants. (authors)

Reliable Viscosity Calculation from Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics Simulations: A Time Decomposition Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yong; Otani, Akihito; Maginn, Edward J

2015-08-11

Equilibrium molecular dynamics is often used in conjunction with a Green-Kubo integral of the pressure tensor autocorrelation function to compute the shear viscosity of fluids. This approach is computationally expensive and is subject to a large amount of variability because the plateau region of the Green-Kubo integral is difficult to identify unambiguously. Here, we propose a time decomposition approach for computing the shear viscosity using the Green-Kubo formalism. Instead of one long trajectory, multiple independent trajectories are run and the Green-Kubo relation is applied to each trajectory. The averaged running integral as a function of time is fit to a double-exponential function with a weighting function derived from the standard deviation of the running integrals. Such a weighting function minimizes the uncertainty of the estimated shear viscosity and provides an objective means of estimating the viscosity. While the formal Green-Kubo integral requires an integration to infinite time, we suggest an integration cutoff time tcut, which can be determined by the relative values of the running integral and the corresponding standard deviation. This approach for computing the shear viscosity can be easily automated and used in computational screening studies where human judgment and intervention in the data analysis are impractical. The method has been applied to the calculation of the shear viscosity of a relatively low-viscosity liquid, ethanol, and relatively high-viscosity ionic liquid, 1-n-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethane-sulfonyl)imide ([BMIM][Tf2N]), over a range of temperatures. These test cases show that the method is robust and yields reproducible and reliable shear viscosity values.

New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

2016-01-01

of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

A stochastic simulation model for reliable PV system sizing providing for solar radiation fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplani, E.; Kaplanis, S.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Solar radiation data for European cities follow the Extreme Value or Weibull distribution. ► Simulation model for the sizing of SAPV systems based on energy balance and stochastic analysis. ► Simulation of PV Generator-Loads-Battery Storage System performance for all months. ► Minimum peak power and battery capacity required for reliable SAPV sizing for various European cities. ► Peak power and battery capacity reduced by more than 30% for operation 95% success rate. -- Abstract: The large fluctuations observed in the daily solar radiation profiles affect highly the reliability of the PV system sizing. Increasing the reliability of the PV system requires higher installed peak power (P m ) and larger battery storage capacity (C L ). This leads to increased costs, and makes PV technology less competitive. This research paper presents a new stochastic simulation model for stand-alone PV systems, developed to determine the minimum installed P m and C L for the PV system to be energy independent. The stochastic simulation model developed, makes use of knowledge acquired from an in-depth statistical analysis of the solar radiation data for the site, and simulates the energy delivered, the excess energy burnt, the load profiles and the state of charge of the battery system for the month the sizing is applied, and the PV system performance for the entire year. The simulation model provides the user with values for the autonomy factor d, simulating PV performance in order to determine the minimum P m and C L depending on the requirements of the application, i.e. operation with critical or non-critical loads. The model makes use of NASA’s Surface meteorology and Solar Energy database for the years 1990–2004 for various cities in Europe with a different climate. The results obtained with this new methodology indicate a substantial reduction in installed peak power and battery capacity, both for critical and non-critical operation, when compared to

Reliability and maintainability assessment factors for reliable fault-tolerant systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bavuso, S. J.

1984-01-01

A long term goal of the NASA Langley Research Center is the development of a reliability assessment methodology of sufficient power to enable the credible comparison of the stochastic attributes of one ultrareliable system design against others. This methodology, developed over a 10 year period, is a combined analytic and simulative technique. An analytic component is the Computer Aided Reliability Estimation capability, third generation, or simply CARE III. A simulative component is the Gate Logic Software Simulator capability, or GLOSS. The numerous factors that potentially have a degrading effect on system reliability and the ways in which these factors that are peculiar to highly reliable fault tolerant systems are accounted for in credible reliability assessments. Also presented are the modeling difficulties that result from their inclusion and the ways in which CARE III and GLOSS mitigate the intractability of the heretofore unworkable mathematics.

Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-10-01

This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

Investigation of MLE in nonparametric estimation methods of reliability function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Kwang Won; Kim, Yoon Ik; Chung, Chang Hyun; Kim, Kil Yoo

2001-01-01

There have been lots of trials to estimate a reliability function. In the ESReDA 20 th seminar, a new method in nonparametric way was proposed. The major point of that paper is how to use censored data efficiently. Generally there are three kinds of approach to estimate a reliability function in nonparametric way, i.e., Reduced Sample Method, Actuarial Method and Product-Limit (PL) Method. The above three methods have some limits. So we suggest an advanced method that reflects censored information more efficiently. In many instances there will be a unique maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of an unknown parameter, and often it may be obtained by the process of differentiation. It is well known that the three methods generally used to estimate a reliability function in nonparametric way have maximum likelihood estimators that are uniquely exist. So, MLE of the new method is derived in this study. The procedure to calculate a MLE is similar just like that of PL-estimator. The difference of the two is that in the new method, the mass (or weight) of each has an influence of the others but the mass in PL-estimator not

A simulation model for reliability evaluation of Space Station power systems

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, C.; Patton, A. D.; Kumar, Mudit; Wagner, H.

1988-01-01

A detailed simulation model for the hybrid Space Station power system is presented which allows photovoltaic and solar dynamic power sources to be mixed in varying proportions. The model considers the dependence of reliability and storage characteristics during the sun and eclipse periods, and makes it possible to model the charging and discharging of the energy storage modules in a relatively accurate manner on a continuous basis.

A critical evaluation of deterministic methods in size optimisation of reliable and cost effective standalone hybrid renewable energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maheri, Alireza

2014-01-01

Reliability of a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) strongly depends on various uncertainties affecting the amount of power produced by the system. In the design of systems subject to uncertainties, both deterministic and nondeterministic design approaches can be adopted. In a deterministic design approach, the designer considers the presence of uncertainties and incorporates them indirectly into the design by applying safety factors. It is assumed that, by employing suitable safety factors and considering worst-case-scenarios, reliable systems can be designed. In fact, the multi-objective optimisation problem with two objectives of reliability and cost is reduced to a single-objective optimisation problem with the objective of cost only. In this paper the competence of deterministic design methods in size optimisation of reliable standalone wind–PV–battery, wind–PV–diesel and wind–PV–battery–diesel configurations is examined. For each configuration, first, using different values of safety factors, the optimal size of the system components which minimises the system cost is found deterministically. Then, for each case, using a Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of safety factors on the reliability and the cost are investigated. In performing reliability analysis, several reliability measures, namely, unmet load, blackout durations (total, maximum and average) and mean time between failures are considered. It is shown that the traditional methods of considering the effect of uncertainties in deterministic designs such as design for an autonomy period and employing safety factors have either little or unpredictable impact on the actual reliability of the designed wind–PV–battery configuration. In the case of wind–PV–diesel and wind–PV–battery–diesel configurations it is shown that, while using a high-enough margin of safety in sizing diesel generator leads to reliable systems, the optimum value for this margin of safety leading to a

Development of Reliable and Validated Tools to Evaluate Technical Resuscitation Skills in a Pediatric Simulation Setting: Resuscitation and Emergency Simulation Checklist for Assessment in Pediatrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Faudeux, Camille; Tran, Antoine; Dupont, Audrey; Desmontils, Jonathan; Montaudié, Isabelle; Bréaud, Jean; Braun, Marc; Fournier, Jean-Paul; Bérard, Etienne; Berlengi, Noémie; Schweitzer, Cyril; Haas, Hervé; Caci, Hervé; Gatin, Amélie; Giovannini-Chami, Lisa

2017-09-01

To develop a reliable and validated tool to evaluate technical resuscitation skills in a pediatric simulation setting. Four Resuscitation and Emergency Simulation Checklist for Assessment in Pediatrics (RESCAPE) evaluation tools were created, following international guidelines: intraosseous needle insertion, bag mask ventilation, endotracheal intubation, and cardiac massage. We applied a modified Delphi methodology evaluation to binary rating items. Reliability was assessed comparing the ratings of 2 observers (1 in real time and 1 after a video-recorded review). The tools were assessed for content, construct, and criterion validity, and for sensitivity to change. Inter-rater reliability, evaluated with Cohen kappa coefficients, was perfect or near-perfect (>0.8) for 92.5% of items and each Cronbach alpha coefficient was ≥0.91. Principal component analyses showed that all 4 tools were unidimensional. Significant increases in median scores with increasing levels of medical expertise were demonstrated for RESCAPE-intraosseous needle insertion (P = .0002), RESCAPE-bag mask ventilation (P = .0002), RESCAPE-endotracheal intubation (P = .0001), and RESCAPE-cardiac massage (P = .0037). Significantly increased median scores over time were also demonstrated during a simulation-based educational program. RESCAPE tools are reliable and validated tools for the evaluation of technical resuscitation skills in pediatric settings during simulation-based educational programs. They might also be used for medical practice performance evaluations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modifying nodal pricing method considering market participants optimality and reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. R. Soofiabadi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper develops a method for nodal pricing and market clearing mechanism considering reliability of the system. The effects of components reliability on electricity price, market participants’ profit and system social welfare is considered. This paper considers reliability both for evaluation of market participant’s optimality as well as for fair pricing and market clearing mechanism. To achieve fair pricing, nodal price has been obtained through a two stage optimization problem and to achieve fair market clearing mechanism, comprehensive criteria has been introduced for optimality evaluation of market participant. Social welfare of the system and system efficiency are increased under proposed modified nodal pricing method.

A combined Importance Sampling and Kriging reliability method for small failure probabilities with time-demanding numerical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Echard, B.; Gayton, N.; Lemaire, M.; Relun, N.

2013-01-01

Applying reliability methods to a complex structure is often delicate for two main reasons. First, such a structure is fortunately designed with codified rules leading to a large safety margin which means that failure is a small probability event. Such a probability level is difficult to assess efficiently. Second, the structure mechanical behaviour is modelled numerically in an attempt to reproduce the real response and numerical model tends to be more and more time-demanding as its complexity is increased to improve accuracy and to consider particular mechanical behaviour. As a consequence, performing a large number of model computations cannot be considered in order to assess the failure probability. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes an original and easily implementable method called AK-IS for active learning and Kriging-based Importance Sampling. This new method is based on the AK-MCS algorithm previously published by Echard et al. [AK-MCS: an active learning reliability method combining Kriging and Monte Carlo simulation. Structural Safety 2011;33(2):145–54]. It associates the Kriging metamodel and its advantageous stochastic property with the Importance Sampling method to assess small failure probabilities. It enables the correction or validation of the FORM approximation with only a very few mechanical model computations. The efficiency of the method is, first, proved on two academic applications. It is then conducted for assessing the reliability of a challenging aerospace case study submitted to fatigue.

Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of Rock Slopes Using Numerical Analysis and Response Surface Method

Science.gov (United States)

Dadashzadeh, N.; Duzgun, H. S. B.; Yesiloglu-Gultekin, N.

2017-08-01

While advanced numerical techniques in slope stability analysis are successfully used in deterministic studies, they have so far found limited use in probabilistic analyses due to their high computation cost. The first-order reliability method (FORM) is one of the most efficient probabilistic techniques to perform probabilistic stability analysis by considering the associated uncertainties in the analysis parameters. However, it is not possible to directly use FORM in numerical slope stability evaluations as it requires definition of a limit state performance function. In this study, an integrated methodology for probabilistic numerical modeling of rock slope stability is proposed. The methodology is based on response surface method, where FORM is used to develop an explicit performance function from the results of numerical simulations. The implementation of the proposed methodology is performed by considering a large potential rock wedge in Sumela Monastery, Turkey. The accuracy of the developed performance function to truly represent the limit state surface is evaluated by monitoring the slope behavior. The calculated probability of failure is compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The proposed methodology is found to be 72% more efficient than MCS, while the accuracy is decreased with an error of 24%.

Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon

2013-01-01

as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine...

Monte Carlo simulation - a powerful tool to support experimental activities in structure reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuritzinn, T.; Chapuliot, S.; Eid, M.; Masson, R.; Dahl, A.; Moinereau, D.

2003-01-01

Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) can have different uses in supporting structure reliability investigations and assessments. In this paper we focus our interest on the use of MCS as a numerical tool to support the fitting of the experimental data related to toughness experiments. (authors)

Uncertainty analysis methods for estimation of reliability of passive system of VHTR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, S.J.

2012-01-01

An estimation of reliability of passive system for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) is under development in Korea. The essential approach of this estimation is to measure the uncertainty of the system performance under a specific accident condition. The uncertainty propagation approach according to the simulation of phenomenological models (computer codes) is adopted as a typical method to estimate the uncertainty for this purpose. This presentation introduced the uncertainty propagation and discussed the related issues focusing on the propagation object and its surrogates. To achieve a sufficient level of depth of uncertainty results, the applicability of the propagation should be carefully reviewed. For an example study, Latin-hypercube sampling (LHS) method as a direct propagation was tested for a specific accident sequence of VHTR. The reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) developed by KAERI was considered for this example study. This is an air-cooled type passive system that has no active components for its operation. The accident sequence is a low pressure conduction cooling (LPCC) accident that is considered as a design basis accident for the safety design of VHTR. This sequence is due to a large failure of the pressure boundary of the reactor system such as a guillotine break of coolant pipe lines. The presentation discussed the obtained insights (benefit and weakness) to apply an estimation of reliability of passive system

Level III Reliability methods feasible for complex structures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Waarts, P.H.; Boer, A. de

2001-01-01

The paper describes the comparison between three types of reliability methods: code type level I used by a designer, full level I and a level III method. Two cases that are typical for civil engineering practise, a cable-stayed subjected to traffic load and the installation of a soil retaining sheet

A general method for closed-loop inverse simulation of helicopter maneuver flight

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei WU

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Maneuverability is a key factor to determine whether a helicopter could finish certain flight missions successfully or not. Inverse simulation is commonly used to calculate the pilot controls of a helicopter to complete a certain kind of maneuver flight and to assess its maneuverability. A general method for inverse simulation of maneuver flight for helicopters with the flight control system online is developed in this paper. A general mathematical describing function is established to provide mathematical descriptions of different kinds of maneuvers. A comprehensive control solver based on the optimal linear quadratic regulator theory is developed to calculate the pilot controls of different maneuvers. The coupling problem between pilot controls and flight control system outputs is well solved by taking the flight control system model into the control solver. Inverse simulation of three different kinds of maneuvers with different agility requirements defined in the ADS-33E-PRF is implemented based on the developed method for a UH-60 helicopter. The results show that the method developed in this paper can solve the closed-loop inverse simulation problem of helicopter maneuver flight with high reliability as well as efficiency. Keywords: Closed-loop, Flying quality, Helicopters, Inverse simulation, Maneuver flight

Towards numerical simulations of supersonic liquid jets using ghost fluid method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majidi, Sahand; Afshari, Asghar

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A ghost fluid method based solver is developed for numerical simulation of compressible multiphase flows. • The performance of the numerical tool is validated via several benchmark problems. • Emergence of supersonic liquid jets in quiescent gaseous environment is simulated using ghost fluid method for the first time. • Bow-shock formation ahead of the liquid jet is clearly observed in the obtained numerical results. • Radiation of mach waves from the phase-interface witnessed experimentally is evidently captured in our numerical simulations. - Abstract: A computational tool based on the ghost fluid method (GFM) is developed to study supersonic liquid jets involving strong shocks and contact discontinuities with high density ratios. The solver utilizes constrained reinitialization method and is capable of switching between the exact and approximate Riemann solvers to increase the robustness. The numerical methodology is validated through several benchmark test problems; these include one-dimensional multiphase shock tube problem, shock–bubble interaction, air cavity collapse in water, and underwater-explosion. A comparison between our results and numerical and experimental observations indicate that the developed solver performs well investigating these problems. The code is then used to simulate the emergence of a supersonic liquid jet into a quiescent gaseous medium, which is the very first time to be studied by a ghost fluid method. The results of simulations are in good agreement with the experimental investigations. Also some of the famous flow characteristics, like the propagation of pressure-waves from the liquid jet interface and dependence of the Mach cone structure on the inlet Mach number, are reproduced numerically. The numerical simulations conducted here suggest that the ghost fluid method is an affordable and reliable scheme to study complicated interfacial evolutions in complex multiphase systems such as supersonic liquid

Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

1993-10-01

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

Review of Quantitative Software Reliability Methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chu, T.L.; Yue, M.; Martinez-Guridi, M.; Lehner, J.

2010-09-17

The current U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing process for digital systems rests on deterministic engineering criteria. In its 1995 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) policy statement, the Commission encouraged the use of PRA technology in all regulatory matters to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although many activities have been completed in the area of risk-informed regulation, the risk-informed analysis process for digital systems has not yet been satisfactorily developed. Since digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are expected to play an increasingly important role in nuclear power plant (NPP) safety, the NRC established a digital system research plan that defines a coherent set of research programs to support its regulatory needs. One of the research programs included in the NRC's digital system research plan addresses risk assessment methods and data for digital systems. Digital I&C systems have some unique characteristics, such as using software, and may have different failure causes and/or modes than analog I&C systems; hence, their incorporation into NPP PRAs entails special challenges. The objective of the NRC's digital system risk research is to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems into NPP PRAs, and (2) using information on the risks of digital systems to support the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities. For several years, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has worked on NRC projects to investigate methods and tools for the probabilistic modeling of digital systems, as documented mainly in NUREG/CR-6962 and NUREG/CR-6997. However, the scope of this research principally focused on hardware failures, with limited reviews of software failure experience and software reliability methods. NRC also sponsored research at the Ohio State University investigating the modeling of

An Intelligent Method for Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Response Surface

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

桂劲松; 刘红; 康海贵

2004-01-01

As water depth increases, the structural safety and reliability of a system become more and more important and challenging. Therefore, the structural reliability method must be applied in ocean engineering design such as offshore platform design. If the performance function is known in structural reliability analysis, the first-order second-moment method is often used. If the performance function could not be definitely expressed, the response surface method is always used because it has a very clear train of thought and simple programming. However, the traditional response surface method fits the response surface of quadratic polynomials where the problem of accuracy could not be solved, because the true limit state surface can be fitted well only in the area near the checking point. In this paper, an intelligent computing method based on the whole response surface is proposed, which can be used for the situation where the performance function could not be definitely expressed in structural reliability analysis. In this method, a response surface of the fuzzy neural network for the whole area should be constructed first, and then the structural reliability can be calculated by the genetic algorithm. In the proposed method, all the sample points for the training network come from the whole area, so the true limit state surface in the whole area can be fitted. Through calculational examples and comparative analysis, it can be known that the proposed method is much better than the traditional response surface method of quadratic polynomials, because, the amount of calculation of finite element analysis is largely reduced, the accuracy of calculation is improved,and the true limit state surface can be fitted very well in the whole area. So, the method proposed in this paper is suitable for engineering application.

Reliability of lower limb alignment measures using an established landmark-based method with a customized computer software program

Science.gov (United States)

Sled, Elizabeth A.; Sheehy, Lisa M.; Felson, David T.; Costigan, Patrick A.; Lam, Miu; Cooke, T. Derek V.

2010-01-01

The objective of the study was to evaluate the reliability of frontal plane lower limb alignment measures using a landmark-based method by (1) comparing inter- and intra-reader reliability between measurements of alignment obtained manually with those using a computer program, and (2) determining inter- and intra-reader reliability of computer-assisted alignment measures from full-limb radiographs. An established method for measuring alignment was used, involving selection of 10 femoral and tibial bone landmarks. 1) To compare manual and computer methods, we used digital images and matching paper copies of five alignment patterns simulating healthy and malaligned limbs drawn using AutoCAD. Seven readers were trained in each system. Paper copies were measured manually and repeat measurements were performed daily for 3 days, followed by a similar routine with the digital images using the computer. 2) To examine the reliability of computer-assisted measures from full-limb radiographs, 100 images (200 limbs) were selected as a random sample from 1,500 full-limb digital radiographs which were part of the Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) Study. Three trained readers used the software program to measure alignment twice from the batch of 100 images, with two or more weeks between batch handling. Manual and computer measures of alignment showed excellent agreement (intraclass correlations [ICCs] 0.977 – 0.999 for computer analysis; 0.820 – 0.995 for manual measures). The computer program applied to full-limb radiographs produced alignment measurements with high inter- and intra-reader reliability (ICCs 0.839 – 0.998). In conclusion, alignment measures using a bone landmark-based approach and a computer program were highly reliable between multiple readers. PMID:19882339

A novel simulation method to evaluate the collection performance of a monolithic active pixel sensor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fu Min; Tang Zhen'an

2011-01-01

A novel simulation method is presented in this paper to evaluate the collection performance of monolithic active pixel sensor (MAPS) devices for minimum ionizing particle tracking. A simplified 3D matrix pixel structure is built using the computer aided design software Sentaurus. The virtual device is then divided into hundreds of parts and an independent customized X photon model is involved in each part to simulate the conditions under 55 Fe radiation. After data processing and analysis, charge collection efficiency, collection time and diffusion conditions can be estimated in detail. In order to verify the reliability of the method, comparisons are made between the simulations and experiments. Although there are some defects, it can be concluded that the proposed idea is a feasible method for the evaluation of the MAPS collection performance. (authors)

Reliability and Availability Analysis of Some Systems with Common-Cause Failures Using SPICE Circuit Simulation Program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Taher Abuelma'atti

1999-01-01

Full Text Available The effectiveness of SPICE circuit simulation program in calculating probabilities, reliability, steady-state availability and mean-time to failure of repairable systems described by Markov models is demonstrated. Two examples are presented. The first example is a warm standby system with common-cause failures and human errors. The second example is a non-identical unit parallel system with common-cause failures. In both cases recourse to numerical solution is inevitable to obtain the Laplace transforms of the probabilities. Results obtained using SPICE are compared with previously published results obtained using the Laplace transform method. Full SPICE listings are included.

Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

OpenAIRE

Chen, Xuyong; Chen, Qian; Bian, Xiaoya; Fan, Jianping

2017-01-01

Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic ...

THE SIMULATION DIAGNOSTIC METHODS AND REGENERATION WAYS OF REINFORCED - CONCRETE CONSTRUCTIONS OF BRIDGES IN PROVIDING THEIR OPERATING RELIABILITY AND LONGEVITY

OpenAIRE

B. V. Savchinskiy

2010-01-01

On the basis of analysis of existing diagnostic methods and regeneration ways of reinforced-concrete constructions of bridges the recommendations on introduction of new modern technologies of renewal of reinforced-concrete constructions of bridges in providing their operating reliability and longevity are offered.

Survey of methods used to asses human reliability in the human factors reliability benchmark exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poucet, A.

1988-01-01

The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has organised a Human Factors Reliability Benchmark Exercise (HF-RBE) with the aim to assess the state-of-the-art in human reliability modelling and assessment. Fifteen teams from eleven countries, representing industry, utilities, licensing organisations and research institutes, participate in the HF-RBE, which is organised around two study cases: (1) analysis of routine functional test and maintenance procedures, with the aim to assess the probability of test-induced failures, the probability of failures to remain unrevealed, and the potential to initiate transients because of errors performed in the test; and (2) analysis of human actions during an operational transient, with the aim to assess the probability that the operators will correctly diagnose the malfunctions and take proper corrective action. The paper briefly reports how the HF-RBE was structured and gives an overview of the methods that have been used for predicting human reliability in both study cases. The experience in applying these methods is discussed and the results obtained are compared. (author)

Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine: An overview

Science.gov (United States)

Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon; Prasad, Ramjee

2013-01-01

Recently, a need to develop supportive new scientific evidence for contemporary Ayurveda has emerged. One of the research objectives is an assessment of the reliability of diagnoses and treatment. Reliability is a quantitative measure of consistency. It is a crucial issue in classification (such as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine diagnoses is in the formative stage. However, reliability studies in Ayurveda are in the preliminary stage. In this paper, examples are provided to illustrate relevant concepts of reliability studies of diagnostic methods and their implication in practice, education, and training. An introduction to reliability estimates and different study designs and statistical analysis is given for future studies in Ayurveda. PMID:23930037

Reliably detectable flaw size for NDE methods that use calibration

Science.gov (United States)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-04-01

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-1823 and associated mh18232 POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. In this paper, POD analysis is applied to an NDE method, such as eddy current testing, where calibration is used. NDE calibration standards have known size artificial flaws such as electro-discharge machined (EDM) notches and flat bottom hole (FBH) reflectors which are used to set instrument sensitivity for detection of real flaws. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. Therefore, it is important to correlate signal responses from real flaws with signal responses form artificial flaws used in calibration process to determine reliably detectable flaw size.

Using DOProC method in reliability assessment of steel elements exposed to fatigue

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krejsa Martin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Fatigue crack damage depends on a number of stress range cycles. This is a time factor in the course of reliability for the entire designed service life. Three sizes are important for the characteristics of the propagation of fatigue cracks - initial size, detectable size and acceptable size. The theoretical model of fatigue crack progression can be based on a linear fracture mechanic. Depending on location of an initial crack, the crack may propagate in structural element e.g. from the edge or from the surface. When determining the required degree of reliability, it is possible to specify the time of the first inspection of the construction which will focus on the fatigue damage. Using a conditional probability and Bayesian approach, times for subsequent inspections can be determined. For probabilistic modelling of fatigue crack progression was used the original and new probabilistic method - the Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (“DOProC”, which uses a purely numerical approach without any simulation techniques or approximation approach based on optimized numerical integration.

U.S. Army Physical Demands Study: Reliability of Simulations of Physically Demanding Tasks Performed by Combat Arms Soldiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Foulis, Stephen A; Redmond, Jan E; Frykman, Peter N; Warr, Bradley J; Zambraski, Edward J; Sharp, Marilyn A

2017-12-01

Foulis, SA, Redmond, JE, Frykman, PN, Warr, BJ, Zambraski, EJ, and Sharp, MA. U.S. Army physical demands study: reliability of simulations of physically demanding tasks performed by combat arms soldiers. J Strength Cond Res 31(12): 3245-3252, 2017-Recently, the U.S. Army has mandated that soldiers must successfully complete the physically demanding tasks of their job to graduate from their Initial Military Training. Evaluating individual soldiers in the field is difficult; however, simulations of these tasks may aid in the assessment of soldiers' abilities. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of simulated physical soldiering tasks relevant to combat arms soldiers. Three cohorts of ∼50 soldiers repeated a subset of 8 simulated tasks 4 times over 2 weeks. Simulations included: sandbag carry, casualty drag, and casualty evacuation from a vehicle turret, move under direct fire, stow ammunition on a tank, load the main gun of a tank, transferring ammunition with a field artillery supply vehicle, and a 4-mile foot march. Reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), standard errors of measurement (SEMs), and 95% limits of agreement. Performance of the casualty drag and foot march did not improve across trials (p > 0.05), whereas improvements, suggestive of learning effects, were observed on the remaining 6 tasks (p ≤ 0.05). The ICCs ranged from 0.76 to 0.96, and the SEMs ranged from 3 to 16% of the mean. These 8 simulated tasks show high reliability. Given proper practice, they are suitable for evaluating the ability of Combat Arms Soldiers to complete the physical requirements of their jobs.

Statistical Bayesian method for reliability evaluation based on ADT data

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Dawei; Wang, Lizhi; Sun, Yusheng; Wang, Xiaohong

2018-05-01

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is frequently conducted in the laboratory to predict the products’ reliability under normal operating conditions. Two kinds of methods, degradation path models and stochastic process models, are utilized to analyze degradation data and the latter one is the most popular method. However, some limitations like imprecise solution process and estimation result of degradation ratio still exist, which may affect the accuracy of the acceleration model and the extrapolation value. Moreover, the conducted solution of this problem, Bayesian method, lose key information when unifying the degradation data. In this paper, a new data processing and parameter inference method based on Bayesian method is proposed to handle degradation data and solve the problems above. First, Wiener process and acceleration model is chosen; Second, the initial values of degradation model and parameters of prior and posterior distribution under each level is calculated with updating and iteration of estimation values; Third, the lifetime and reliability values are estimated on the basis of the estimation parameters; Finally, a case study is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the proposed method is quite effective and accuracy in estimating the lifetime and reliability of a product.

Mathematical Methods in Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life

CERN Document Server

Huber, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir

2008-01-01

Reliability and survival analysis are important applications of stochastic mathematics (probability, statistics and stochastic processes) that are usually covered separately in spite of the similarity of the involved mathematical theory. This title aims to redress this situation: it includes 21 chapters divided into four parts: Survival analysis, Reliability, Quality of life, and Related topics. Many of these chapters were presented at the European Seminar on Mathematical Methods for Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life in 2006.

A method of predicting the reliability of CDM coil insulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kytasty, A.; Ogle, C.; Arrendale, H.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a method of predicting the reliability of the Collider Dipole Magnet (CDM) coil insulation design. The method proposes a probabilistic treatment of electrical test data, stress analysis, material properties variability and loading uncertainties to give the reliability estimate. The approach taken to predict reliability of design related failure modes of the CDM is to form analytical models of the various possible failure modes and their related mechanisms or causes, and then statistically assess the contributions of the various contributing variables. The probability of the failure mode occurring is interpreted as the number of times one would expect certain extreme situations to combine and randomly occur. One of the more complex failure modes of the CDM will be used to illustrate this methodology

Self-Tuning Method for Increased Obstacle Detection Reliability Based on Internet of Things LiDAR Sensor Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Castaño, Fernando; Beruvides, Gerardo; Villalonga, Alberto; Haber, Rodolfo E

2018-05-10

On-chip LiDAR sensors for vehicle collision avoidance are a rapidly expanding area of research and development. The assessment of reliable obstacle detection using data collected by LiDAR sensors has become a key issue that the scientific community is actively exploring. The design of a self-tuning methodology and its implementation are presented in this paper, to maximize the reliability of LiDAR sensors network for obstacle detection in the 'Internet of Things' (IoT) mobility scenarios. The Webots Automobile 3D simulation tool for emulating sensor interaction in complex driving environments is selected in order to achieve that objective. Furthermore, a model-based framework is defined that employs a point-cloud clustering technique, and an error-based prediction model library that is composed of a multilayer perceptron neural network, and k-nearest neighbors and linear regression models. Finally, a reinforcement learning technique, specifically a Q-learning method, is implemented to determine the number of LiDAR sensors that are required to increase sensor reliability for obstacle localization tasks. In addition, a IoT driving assistance user scenario, connecting a five LiDAR sensor network is designed and implemented to validate the accuracy of the computational intelligence-based framework. The results demonstrated that the self-tuning method is an appropriate strategy to increase the reliability of the sensor network while minimizing detection thresholds.

Developing a reliable signal wire attachment method for rail.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-11-01

The goal of this project was to develop a better attachment method for rail signal wires to improve the reliability of signaling : systems. EWI conducted basic research into the failure mode of current attachment methods and developed and tested a ne...

THE SIMULATION DIAGNOSTIC METHODS AND REGENERATION WAYS OF REINFORCED - CONCRETE CONSTRUCTIONS OF BRIDGES IN PROVIDING THEIR OPERATING RELIABILITY AND LONGEVITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. V. Savchinskiy

2010-03-01

Full Text Available On the basis of analysis of existing diagnostic methods and regeneration ways of reinforced-concrete constructions of bridges the recommendations on introduction of new modern technologies of renewal of reinforced-concrete constructions of bridges in providing their operating reliability and longevity are offered.

Advancing methods for reliably assessing motivational interviewing fidelity using the motivational interviewing skills code.

Science.gov (United States)

Lord, Sarah Peregrine; Can, Doğan; Yi, Michael; Marin, Rebeca; Dunn, Christopher W; Imel, Zac E; Georgiou, Panayiotis; Narayanan, Shrikanth; Steyvers, Mark; Atkins, David C

2015-02-01

The current paper presents novel methods for collecting MISC data and accurately assessing reliability of behavior codes at the level of the utterance. The MISC 2.1 was used to rate MI interviews from five randomized trials targeting alcohol and drug use. Sessions were coded at the utterance-level. Utterance-based coding reliability was estimated using three methods and compared to traditional reliability estimates of session tallies. Session-level reliability was generally higher compared to reliability using utterance-based codes, suggesting that typical methods for MISC reliability may be biased. These novel methods in MI fidelity data collection and reliability assessment provided rich data for therapist feedback and further analyses. Beyond implications for fidelity coding, utterance-level coding schemes may elucidate important elements in the counselor-client interaction that could inform theories of change and the practice of MI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mission reliability of semi-Markov systems under generalized operational time requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Xiaoyue; Hillston, Jane

2015-01-01

Mission reliability of a system depends on specific criteria for mission success. To evaluate the mission reliability of some mission systems that do not need to work normally for the whole mission time, two types of mission reliability for such systems are studied. The first type corresponds to the mission requirement that the system must remain operational continuously for a minimum time within the given mission time interval, while the second corresponds to the mission requirement that the total operational time of the system within the mission time window must be greater than a given value. Based on Markov renewal properties, matrix integral equations are derived for semi-Markov systems. Numerical algorithms and a simulation procedure are provided for both types of mission reliability. Two examples are used for illustration purposes. One is a one-unit repairable Markov system, and the other is a cold standby semi-Markov system consisting of two components. By the proposed approaches, the mission reliability of systems with time redundancy can be more precisely estimated to avoid possible unnecessary redundancy of system resources. - Highlights: • Two types of mission reliability under generalized requirements are defined. • Equations for both types of reliability are derived for semi-Markov systems. • Numerical methods are given for solving both types of reliability. • Simulation procedure is given for estimating both types of reliability. • Verification of the numerical methods is given by the results of simulation

Reliability analysis for thermal cutting method based non-explosive separation device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Jun Woo; Hwang, Kuk Ha; Kim, Byung Kyu

2016-01-01

In order to increase the reliability of a separation device for a small satellite, a new non-explosive separation device is invented. This device is activated using a thermal cutting method with a Ni-Cr wire. A reliability analysis is carried out for the proposed non-explosive separation device by applying the Fault tree analysis (FTA) method. In the FTA results for the separation device, only ten single-point failure modes are found. The reliability modeling and analysis for the device are performed considering failure of the power supply, the Ni-Cr wire burns failure and unwinds, the holder separation failure, the balls separation failure, and the pin release failure. Ultimately, the reliability of the proposed device is calculated as 0.999989 with five Ni-Cr wire coils

Reliability analysis for thermal cutting method based non-explosive separation device

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Jun Woo; Hwang, Kuk Ha; Kim, Byung Kyu [Korea Aerospace University, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

In order to increase the reliability of a separation device for a small satellite, a new non-explosive separation device is invented. This device is activated using a thermal cutting method with a Ni-Cr wire. A reliability analysis is carried out for the proposed non-explosive separation device by applying the Fault tree analysis (FTA) method. In the FTA results for the separation device, only ten single-point failure modes are found. The reliability modeling and analysis for the device are performed considering failure of the power supply, the Ni-Cr wire burns failure and unwinds, the holder separation failure, the balls separation failure, and the pin release failure. Ultimately, the reliability of the proposed device is calculated as 0.999989 with five Ni-Cr wire coils.

An approach for assessing human decision reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyy, P.

2000-01-01

This paper presents a method to study human reliability in decision situations related to nuclear power plant disturbances. Decisions often play a significant role in handling of emergency situations. The method may be applied to probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) in cases where decision making is an important dimension of an accident sequence. Such situations are frequent e.g. in accident management. In this paper, a modelling approach for decision reliability studies is first proposed. Then, a case study with two decision situations with relatively different characteristics is presented. Qualitative and quantitative findings of the study are discussed. In very simple decision cases with time pressure, time reliability correlation proved out to be a feasible reliability modelling method. In all other decision situations, more advanced probabilistic decision models have to be used. Finally, decision probability assessment by using simulator run results and expert judgement is presented

An Investment Level Decision Method to Secure Long-term Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Bamba, Satoshi; Yabe, Kuniaki; Seki, Tomomichi; Shibaya, Tetsuji

The slowdown in power demand increase and facility replacement causes the aging and lower reliability in power facility. And the aging is followed by the rapid increase of repair and replacement when many facilities reach their lifetime in future. This paper describes a method to estimate the repair and replacement costs in future by applying the life-cycle cost model and renewal theory to the historical data. This paper also describes a method to decide the optimum investment plan, which replaces facilities in the order of cost-effectiveness by setting replacement priority formula, and the minimum investment level to keep the reliability. Estimation examples applied to substation facilities show that the reasonable and leveled future cash-out can keep the reliability by lowering the percentage of replacements caused by fatal failures.

Construct Validity and Reliability of Structured Assessment of endoVascular Expertise in a Simulated Setting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bech, B; Lönn, L; Falkenberg, M

2011-01-01

Objectives To study the construct validity and reliability of a novel endovascular global rating scale, Structured Assessment of endoVascular Expertise (SAVE). Design A Clinical, experimental study. Materials Twenty physicians with endovascular experiences ranging from complete novices to highly....... Validity was analysed by correlating experience with performance results. Reliability was analysed according to generalisability theory. Results The mean score on the 29 items of the SAVE scale correlated well with clinical experience (R = 0.84, P ... with clinical experience (R = -0.53, P validity and reliability of assessment with the SAVE scale was high when applied to performances in a simulation setting with advanced realism. No ceiling effect...

A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nielsen Morten

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score. Results An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. Conclusion The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0

Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

2018-03-01

In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

The Reliability, Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Value-Added Teacher Assessment Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Stuart S.

2012-01-01

This article reviews evidence regarding the intertemporal reliability of teacher rankings based on value-added methods. Value-added methods exhibit low reliability, yet are broadly supported by prominent educational researchers and are increasingly being used to evaluate and fire teachers. The article then presents a cost-effectiveness analysis…

Reliability of a semi-quantitative method for dermal exposure assessment (DREAM)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wendel de Joode, B. van; Hemmen, J.J. van; Meijster, T.; Major, V.; London, L.; Kromhout, H.

2005-01-01

Valid and reliable semi-quantitative dermal exposure assessment methods for epidemiological research and for occupational hygiene practice, applicable for different chemical agents, are practically nonexistent. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability of a recently developed

Space Vehicle Reliability Modeling in DIORAMA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tornga, Shawn Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-07-12

When modeling system performance of space based detection systems it is important to consider spacecraft reliability. As space vehicles age the components become prone to failure for a variety of reasons such as radiation damage. Additionally, some vehicles may lose the ability to maneuver once they exhaust fuel supplies. Typically failure is divided into two categories: engineering mistakes and technology surprise. This document will report on a method of simulating space vehicle reliability in the DIORAMA framework.

System reliability with correlated components: Accuracy of the Equivalent Planes method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roscoe, K.; Diermanse, F.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

2015-01-01

Computing system reliability when system components are correlated presents a challenge because it usually requires solving multi-fold integrals numerically, which is generally infeasible due to the computational cost. In Dutch flood defense reliability modeling, an efficient method for computing

System reliability with correlated components : Accuracy of the Equivalent Planes method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roscoe, K.; Diermanse, F.; Vrouwenvelder, T.

2015-01-01

Computing system reliability when system components are correlated presents a challenge because it usually requires solving multi-fold integrals numerically, which is generally infeasible due to the computational cost. In Dutch flood defense reliability modeling, an efficient method for computing

Reliability and validity of the AutoCAD software method in lumbar lordosis measurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Letafatkar, Amir; Amirsasan, Ramin; Abdolvahabi, Zahra; Hadadnezhad, Malihe

2011-12-01

The aim of this study was to determine the reliability and validity of the AutoCAD software method in lumbar lordosis measurement. Fifty healthy volunteers with a mean age of 23 ± 1.80 years were enrolled. A lumbar lateral radiograph was taken on all participants, and the lordosis was measured according to the Cobb method. Afterward, the lumbar lordosis degree was measured via AutoCAD software and flexible ruler methods. The current study is accomplished in 2 parts: intratester and intertester evaluations of reliability as well as the validity of the flexible ruler and software methods. Based on the intraclass correlation coefficient, AutoCAD's reliability and validity in measuring lumbar lordosis were 0.984 and 0.962, respectively. AutoCAD showed to be a reliable and valid method to measure lordosis. It is suggested that this method may replace those that are costly and involve health risks, such as radiography, in evaluating lumbar lordosis.

Selected Methods For Increases Reliability The Of Electronic Systems Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paś Jacek

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents the issues related to the different methods to increase the reliability of electronic security systems (ESS for example, a fire alarm system (SSP. Reliability of the SSP in the descriptive sense is a property preservation capacity to implement the preset function (e.g. protection: fire airport, the port, logistics base, etc., at a certain time and under certain conditions, e.g. Environmental, despite the possible non-compliance by a specific subset of elements this system. Analyzing the available literature on the ESS-SSP is not available studies on methods to increase the reliability (several works similar topics but moving with respect to the burglary and robbery (Intrusion. Based on the analysis of the set of all paths in the system suitability of the SSP for the scenario mentioned elements fire events (device critical because of security.

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

Science.gov (United States)

Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

2003-01-01

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been

Circuit design for reliability

CERN Document Server

Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson

2015-01-01

This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units.  The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.

A fast method for calculating reliable event supports in tree reconciliations via Pareto optimality.

Science.gov (United States)

To, Thu-Hien; Jacox, Edwin; Ranwez, Vincent; Scornavacca, Celine

2015-11-14

Given a gene and a species tree, reconciliation methods attempt to retrieve the macro-evolutionary events that best explain the discrepancies between the two tree topologies. The DTL parsimonious approach searches for a most parsimonious reconciliation between a gene tree and a (dated) species tree, considering four possible macro-evolutionary events (speciation, duplication, transfer, and loss) with specific costs. Unfortunately, many events are erroneously predicted due to errors in the input trees, inappropriate input cost values or because of the existence of several equally parsimonious scenarios. It is thus crucial to provide a measure of the reliability for predicted events. It has been recently proposed that the reliability of an event can be estimated via its frequency in the set of most parsimonious reconciliations obtained using a variety of reasonable input cost vectors. To compute such a support, a straightforward but time-consuming approach is to generate the costs slightly departing from the original ones, independently compute the set of all most parsimonious reconciliations for each vector, and combine these sets a posteriori. Another proposed approach uses Pareto-optimality to partition cost values into regions which induce reconciliations with the same number of DTL events. The support of an event is then defined as its frequency in the set of regions. However, often, the number of regions is not large enough to provide reliable supports. We present here a method to compute efficiently event supports via a polynomial-sized graph, which can represent all reconciliations for several different costs. Moreover, two methods are proposed to take into account alternative input costs: either explicitly providing an input cost range or allowing a tolerance for the over cost of a reconciliation. Our methods are faster than the region based method, substantially faster than the sampling-costs approach, and have a higher event-prediction accuracy on

Evaluation of Information Requirements of Reliability Methods in Engineering Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marini, Vinicius Kaster; Restrepo-Giraldo, John Dairo; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

2010-01-01

This paper aims to characterize the information needed to perform methods for robustness and reliability, and verify their applicability to early design stages. Several methods were evaluated on their support to synthesis in engineering design. Of those methods, FMEA, FTA and HAZOP were selected...

A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doguc, Ozge; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

2009-01-01

This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples

A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doguc, Ozge [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: jmarquez@stevens.edu

2009-02-15

This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples.

Methods for simulating turbulent phase screen

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Jianzhu; Zhang Feizhou; Wu Yi

2012-01-01

Some methods for simulating turbulent phase screen are summarized, and their characteristics are analyzed by calculating the phase structure function, decomposing phase screens into Zernike polynomials, and simulating laser propagation in the atmosphere. Through analyzing, it is found that, the turbulent high-frequency components are well contained by those phase screens simulated by the FFT method, but the low-frequency components are little contained. The low-frequency components are well contained by screens simulated by Zernike method, but the high-frequency components are not contained enough. The high frequency components contained will be improved by increasing the order of the Zernike polynomial, but they mainly lie in the edge-area. Compared with the two methods above, the fractal method is a better method to simulate turbulent phase screens. According to the radius of the focal spot and the variance of the focal spot jitter, there are limitations in the methods except the fractal method. Combining the FFT and Zernike method or combining the FFT method and self-similar theory to simulate turbulent phase screens is an effective and appropriate way. In general, the fractal method is probably the best way. (authors)

Comparison of HRA methods based on WWER-1000 NPP real and simulated accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petkov, Gueorgui

2010-01-01

Full text: Adequate treatment of human interactions in probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) studies is a key to the understanding of accident sequences and their relative importance in overall risk. Human interactions with machines have long been recognized as important contributors to the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPP). Human interactions affect the ordering of dominant accident sequences and hence have a significant effect on the risk of NPP. By virtue of the ability to combine the treatment of both human and hardware reliability in real accidents, NPP fullscope, multifunctional and computer-based simulators provide a unique way of developing an understanding of the importance of specific human actions for overall plant safety. Context dependent human reliability assessment (HRA) models, such as the holistic decision tree (HDT) and performance evaluation of teamwork (PET) methods, are the so-called second generation HRA techniques. The HDT model has been used for a number of PSA studies. The PET method reflects promising prospects for dealing with dynamic aspects of human performance. The paper presents a comparison of the two HRA techniques for calculation of post-accident human error probability in the PSA. The real and simulated event training scenario 'turbine's stop after loss of feedwater' based on standard PSA model assumptions is designed for WWER-1000 computer simulator and their detailed boundary conditions are described and analyzed. The error probability of post-accident individual actions will be calculated by means of each investigated technique based on student's computer simulator training archives

A Reliability Test of a Complex System Based on Empirical Likelihood

OpenAIRE

Zhou, Yan; Fu, Liya; Zhang, Jun; Hui, Yongchang

2016-01-01

To analyze the reliability of a complex system described by minimal paths, an empirical likelihood method is proposed to solve the reliability test problem when the subsystem distributions are unknown. Furthermore, we provide a reliability test statistic of the complex system and extract the limit distribution of the test statistic. Therefore, we can obtain the confidence interval for reliability and make statistical inferences. The simulation studies also demonstrate the theorem results.

A Report on Simulation-Driven Reliability and Failure Analysis of Large-Scale Storage Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wan, Lipeng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wang, Feiyi [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Oral, H. Sarp [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Vazhkudai, Sudharshan S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cao, Qing [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

2014-11-01

High-performance computing (HPC) storage systems provide data availability and reliability using various hardware and software fault tolerance techniques. Usually, reliability and availability are calculated at the subsystem or component level using limited metrics such as, mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time to data loss (MTTDL). This often means settling on simple and disconnected failure models (such as exponential failure rate) to achieve tractable and close-formed solutions. However, such models have been shown to be insufficient in assessing end-to-end storage system reliability and availability. We propose a generic simulation framework aimed at analyzing the reliability and availability of storage systems at scale, and investigating what-if scenarios. The framework is designed for an end-to-end storage system, accommodating the various components and subsystems, their interconnections, failure patterns and propagation, and performs dependency analysis to capture a wide-range of failure cases. We evaluate the framework against a large-scale storage system that is in production and analyze its failure projections toward and beyond the end of lifecycle. We also examine the potential operational impact by studying how different types of components affect the overall system reliability and availability, and present the preliminary results

Study of Fuze Structure and Reliability Design Based on the Direct Search Method

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Zhang; Ning, Wang

2017-03-01

Redundant design is one of the important methods to improve the reliability of the system, but mutual coupling of multiple factors is often involved in the design. In my study, Direct Search Method is introduced into the optimum redundancy configuration for design optimization, in which, the reliability, cost, structural weight and other factors can be taken into account simultaneously, and the redundant allocation and reliability design of aircraft critical system are computed. The results show that this method is convenient and workable, and applicable to the redundancy configurations and optimization of various designs upon appropriate modifications. And this method has a good practical value.

An automated method for estimating reliability of grid systems using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doguc, Ozge; Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose

2012-01-01

Grid computing has become relevant due to its applications to large-scale resource sharing, wide-area information transfer, and multi-institutional collaborating. In general, in grid computing a service requests the use of a set of resources, available in a grid, to complete certain tasks. Although analysis tools and techniques for these types of systems have been studied, grid reliability analysis is generally computation-intensive to obtain due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, conventional reliability models have some common assumptions that cannot be applied to the grid systems. Therefore, new analytical methods are needed for effective and accurate assessment of grid reliability. This study presents a new method for estimating grid service reliability, which does not require prior knowledge about the grid system structure unlike the previous studies. Moreover, the proposed method does not rely on any assumptions about the link and node failure rates. This approach is based on a data-mining algorithm, the K2, to discover the grid system structure from raw historical system data, that allows to find minimum resource spanning trees (MRST) within the grid then, uses Bayesian networks (BN) to model the MRST and estimate grid service reliability.

Hybrid numerical methods for multiscale simulations of subsurface biogeochemical processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheibe, T D; Tartakovsky, A M; Tartakovsky, D M; Redden, G D; Meakin, P

2007-01-01

Many subsurface flow and transport problems of importance today involve coupled non-linear flow, transport, and reaction in media exhibiting complex heterogeneity. In particular, problems involving biological mediation of reactions fall into this class of problems. Recent experimental research has revealed important details about the physical, chemical, and biological mechanisms involved in these processes at a variety of scales ranging from molecular to laboratory scales. However, it has not been practical or possible to translate detailed knowledge at small scales into reliable predictions of field-scale phenomena important for environmental management applications. A large assortment of numerical simulation tools have been developed, each with its own characteristic scale. Important examples include 1. molecular simulations (e.g., molecular dynamics); 2. simulation of microbial processes at the cell level (e.g., cellular automata or particle individual-based models); 3. pore-scale simulations (e.g., lattice-Boltzmann, pore network models, and discrete particle methods such as smoothed particle hydrodynamics); and 4. macroscopic continuum-scale simulations (e.g., traditional partial differential equations solved by finite difference or finite element methods). While many problems can be effectively addressed by one of these models at a single scale, some problems may require explicit integration of models across multiple scales. We are developing a hybrid multi-scale subsurface reactive transport modeling framework that integrates models with diverse representations of physics, chemistry and biology at different scales (sub-pore, pore and continuum). The modeling framework is being designed to take advantage of advanced computational technologies including parallel code components using the Common Component Architecture, parallel solvers, gridding, data and workflow management, and visualization. This paper describes the specific methods/codes being used at each

Halo Models of Large Scale Structure and Reliability of Cosmological N-Body Simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Gaite

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Halo models of the large scale structure of the Universe are critically examined, focusing on the definition of halos as smooth distributions of cold dark matter. This definition is essentially based on the results of cosmological N-body simulations. By a careful analysis of the standard assumptions of halo models and N-body simulations and by taking into account previous studies of self-similarity of the cosmic web structure, we conclude that N-body cosmological simulations are not fully reliable in the range of scales where halos appear. Therefore, to have a consistent definition of halos is necessary either to define them as entities of arbitrary size with a grainy rather than smooth structure or to define their size in terms of small-scale baryonic physics.

Reliability analysis of digital I and C systems at KAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol

2013-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research activities on a reliability analysis of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs) performed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The research activities include the development of a new safety-critical software reliability analysis method by integrating the advantages of existing software reliability analysis methods, a fault coverage estimation method based on fault injection experiments, and a new human reliability analysis method for computer-based main control rooms (MCRs) based on human performance data from the APR-1400 full-scope simulator. The research results are expected to be used to address various issues such as the licensing issues related to digital I and C probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for advanced digital-based NPPs. (author)

Reliable prediction of adsorption isotherms via genetic algorithm molecular simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

LoftiKatooli, L; Shahsavand, A

2017-01-01

Conventional molecular simulation techniques such as grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) strictly rely on purely random search inside the simulation box for predicting the adsorption isotherms. This blind search is usually extremely time demanding for providing a faithful approximation of the real isotherm and in some cases may lead to non-optimal solutions. A novel approach is presented in this article which does not use any of the classical steps of the standard GCMC method, such as displacement, insertation, and removal. The new approach is based on the well-known genetic algorithm to find the optimal configuration for adsorption of any adsorbate on a structured adsorbent under prevailing pressure and temperature. The proposed approach considers the molecular simulation problem as a global optimization challenge. A detailed flow chart of our so-called genetic algorithm molecular simulation (GAMS) method is presented, which is entirely different from traditions molecular simulation approaches. Three real case studies (for adsorption of CO 2 and H 2 over various zeolites) are borrowed from literature to clearly illustrate the superior performances of the proposed method over the standard GCMC technique. For the present method, the average absolute values of percentage errors are around 11% (RHO-H 2 ), 5% (CHA-CO 2 ), and 16% (BEA-CO 2 ), while they were about 70%, 15%, and 40% for the standard GCMC technique, respectively.

Uncertainty analysis of nonlinear systems employing the first-order reliability method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Chan Kyu; Yoo, Hong Hee

2012-01-01

In most mechanical systems, properties of the system elements have uncertainties due to several reasons. For example, mass, stiffness coefficient of a spring, damping coefficient of a damper or friction coefficients have uncertain characteristics. The uncertain characteristics of the elements have a direct effect on the system performance uncertainty. It is very important to estimate the performance uncertainty since the performance uncertainty is directly related to manufacturing yield and consumer satisfaction. Due to this reason, the performance uncertainty should be estimated accurately and considered in the system design. In this paper, performance measures are defined for nonlinear vibration systems and the performance measure uncertainties are estimated employing the first order reliability method (FORM). It was found that the FORM could provide good results in spite of the system nonlinear characteristics. Comparing to the results obtained by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), the accuracy of the uncertainty analysis results obtained by the FORM is validated

Extended block diagram method for a multi-state system reliability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lisnianski, Anatoly

2007-01-01

The presented method extends the classical reliability block diagram method to a repairable multi-state system. It is very suitable for engineering applications since the procedure is well formalized and based on the natural decomposition of the entire multi-state system (the system is represented as a collection of its elements). Until now, the classical block diagram method did not provide the reliability assessment for the repairable multi-state system. The straightforward stochastic process methods are very difficult for engineering application in such cases due to the 'dimension damnation'-huge number of system states. The suggested method is based on the combined random processes and the universal generating function technique and drastically reduces the number of states in the multi-state model

Neuropsychological Aspects Observed in a Nuclear Plant Simulator and its Relation with Human Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prado, E.A.P. do; Martins, M.; Pinheiro, A.; Silveira, J.

2016-01-01

This paper will discuss preliminary results of an evaluation methodology for the analysis and quantification of errors in manual (human) operation by training cognitive parameters and skill levels in the complex control system operation using Neuropsychophysiology and Neuro feedback equipment. The research was conducted using a game (nuclear power plant simulator) that simulates concepts of operation of a nuclear plant with a split sample evaluating aspects of learning and knowledge in the nuclear area. Operators were monitored using biomarkers (ECG, EEG, GSR, face detection and eye tracking) and the results were analyzed by Statistical multivariate techniques. An important component in the evaluation of complex systems is the human reliability during operation. Human reliability refers to the probability of the human element perform the tasks scheduled during the defined period for system operation when tested under specified environmental conditions, and additionally not to take any action detrimental to system operation.

Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

2017-01-01

Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of

Rare Event Simulation for Dynamic Fault Trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Tonetta, Stefano; Schoitsch, Erwin; Bitsch, Friedemann

2017-01-01

Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of

[Study of the relationship between human quality and reliability].

Science.gov (United States)

Long, S; Wang, C; Wang, L i; Yuan, J; Liu, H; Jiao, X

1997-02-01

To clarify the relationship between human quality and reliability, 1925 experiments in 20 subjects were carried out to study the relationship between disposition character, digital memory, graphic memory, multi-reaction time and education level and simulated aircraft operation. Meanwhile, effects of task difficulty and enviromental factor on human reliability were also studied. The results showed that human quality can be predicted and evaluated through experimental methods. The better the human quality, the higher the human reliability.

Reliability assessment of distribution power systems including distributed generations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Megdiche, M.

2004-12-01

Nowadays, power systems have reached a good level of reliability. Nevertheless, considering the modifications induced by the connections of small independent producers to distribution networks, there's a need to assess the reliability of these new systems. Distribution networks present several functional characteristics, highlighted by the qualitative study of the failures, as dispersed loads at several places, variable topology and some electrotechnical phenomena which must be taken into account to model the events that can occur. The adopted reliability calculations method is Monte Carlo simulations, the probabilistic method most powerful and most flexible to model complex operating of the distribution system. We devoted a first part on the case of a 20 kV feeder to which a cogeneration unit is connected. The method was applied to a software of stochastic Petri nets simulations. Then a second part related to the study of a low voltage power system supplied by dispersed generations. Here, the complexity of the events required to code the method in an environment of programming allowing the use of power system calculations (load flow, short-circuit, load shedding, management of units powers) in order to analyse the system state for each new event. (author)

Composite reliability evaluation for transmission network planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiashen Teh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As the penetration of wind power into the power system increases, the ability to assess the reliability impact of such interaction becomes more important. The composite reliability evaluations involving wind energy provide ample opportunities for assessing the benefits of different wind farm connection points. A connection to the weak area of the transmission network will require network reinforcement for absorbing the additional wind energy. Traditionally, the reinforcements are performed by constructing new transmission corridors. However, a new state-of-art technology such as the dynamic thermal rating (DTR system, provides new reinforcement strategy and this requires new reliability assessment method. This paper demonstrates a methodology for assessing the cost and the reliability of network reinforcement strategies by considering the DTR systems when large scale wind farms are connected to the existing power network. Sequential Monte Carlo simulations were performed and all DTRs and wind speed were simulated using the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA model. Various reinforcement strategies were assessed from their cost and reliability aspects. Practical industrial standards are used as guidelines when assessing costs. Due to this, the proposed methodology in this paper is able to determine the optimal reinforcement strategies when both the cost and reliability requirements are considered.

Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair

2014-09-01

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours. In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters

Reliability and validity of non-radiographic methods of thoracic kyphosis measurement: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Eva; McCreesh, Karen; Lewis, Jeremy

2014-02-01

A wide array of instruments are available for non-invasive thoracic kyphosis measurement. Guidelines for selecting outcome measures for use in clinical and research practice recommend that properties such as validity and reliability are considered. This systematic review reports on the reliability and validity of non-invasive methods for measuring thoracic kyphosis. A systematic search of 11 electronic databases located studies assessing reliability and/or validity of non-invasive thoracic kyphosis measurement techniques. Two independent reviewers used a critical appraisal tool to assess the quality of retrieved studies. Data was extracted by the primary reviewer. The results were synthesized qualitatively using a level of evidence approach. 27 studies satisfied the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. The reliability, validity and both reliability and validity were investigated by sixteen, two and nine studies respectively. 17/27 studies were deemed to be of high quality. In total, 15 methods of thoracic kyphosis were evaluated in retrieved studies. All investigated methods showed high (ICC ≥ .7) to very high (ICC ≥ .9) levels of reliability. The validity of the methods ranged from low to very high. The strongest levels of evidence for reliability exists in support of the Debrunner kyphometer, Spinal Mouse and Flexicurve index, and for validity supports the arcometer and Flexicurve index. Further reliability and validity studies are required to strengthen the level of evidence for the remaining methods of measurement. This should be addressed by future research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Method for assessing software reliability of the document management system using the RFID technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kiedrowicz Maciej

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The deliberations presented in this study refer to the method for assessing software reliability of the docu-ment management system, using the RFID technology. A method for determining the reliability structure of the dis-cussed software, understood as the index vector for assessing reliability of its components, was proposed. The model of the analyzed software is the control transfer graph, in which the probability of activating individual components during the system's operation results from the so-called operational profile, which characterizes the actual working environment. The reliability structure is established as a result of the solution of a specific mathematical software task. The knowledge of the reliability structure of the software makes it possible to properly plan the time and finan-cial expenses necessary to build the software, which would meet the reliability requirements. The application of the presented method is illustrated by the number example, corresponding to the software reality of the RFID document management system.

Structural system reliability calculation using a probabilistic fault tree analysis method

Science.gov (United States)

Torng, T. Y.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, H. R.

1992-01-01

The development of a new probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) method for calculating structural system reliability is summarized. The proposed PFTA procedure includes: developing a fault tree to represent the complex structural system, constructing an approximation function for each bottom event, determining a dominant sampling sequence for all bottom events, and calculating the system reliability using an adaptive importance sampling method. PFTA is suitable for complicated structural problems that require computer-intensive computer calculations. A computer program has been developed to implement the PFTA.

Experiment research on cognition reliability model of nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Bingquan; Fang Xiang

1999-01-01

The objective of the paper is to improve the reliability of operation on real nuclear power plant of operators through the simulation research to the cognition reliability of nuclear power plant operators. The research method of the paper is to make use of simulator of nuclear power plant as research platform, to take present international research model of reliability of human cognition based on three-parameter Weibull distribution for reference, to develop and get the research model of Chinese nuclear power plant operators based on two-parameter Weibull distribution. By making use of two-parameter Weibull distribution research model of cognition reliability, the experiments about the cognition reliability of nuclear power plant operators have been done. Compared with the results of other countries such USA and Hungary, the same results can be obtained, which can do good to the safety operation of nuclear power plant

Planning Irreversible Electroporation in the Porcine Kidney: Are Numerical Simulations Reliable for Predicting Empiric Ablation Outcomes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wimmer, Thomas; Srimathveeravalli, Govindarajan; Gutta, Narendra; Ezell, Paula C.; Monette, Sebastien; Maybody, Majid; Erinjery, Joseph P.; Durack, Jeremy C.; Coleman, Jonathan A.; Solomon, Stephen B.

2015-01-01

PurposeNumerical simulations are used for treatment planning in clinical applications of irreversible electroporation (IRE) to determine ablation size and shape. To assess the reliability of simulations for treatment planning, we compared simulation results with empiric outcomes of renal IRE using computed tomography (CT) and histology in an animal model.MethodsThe ablation size and shape for six different IRE parameter sets (70–90 pulses, 2,000–2,700 V, 70–100 µs) for monopolar and bipolar electrodes was simulated using a numerical model. Employing these treatment parameters, 35 CT-guided IRE ablations were created in both kidneys of six pigs and followed up with CT immediately and after 24 h. Histopathology was analyzed from postablation day 1.ResultsAblation zones on CT measured 81 ± 18 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.05) and 115 ± 18 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.09) of the simulated size for monopolar electrodes, and 190 ± 33 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.001) and 234 ± 12 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.0001) for bipolar electrodes. Histopathology indicated smaller ablation zones than simulated (71 ± 41 %, p ≤ 0.047) and measured on CT (47 ± 16 %, p ≤ 0.005) with complete ablation of kidney parenchyma within the central zone and incomplete ablation in the periphery.ConclusionBoth numerical simulations for planning renal IRE and CT measurements may overestimate the size of ablation compared to histology, and ablation effects may be incomplete in the periphery

System Reliability of Timber Structures with Ductile Behaviour

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Čizmar, Dean

2011-01-01

The present paper considers the evaluation of timber structures with the focus on robustness due to connection ductility. The robustness analysis is based on the structural reliability framework applied to a simplified mechanical system. The structural timber system is depicted as a parallel system....... An evaluation method of the ductile behaviour is introduced. For different ductile behaviours, the system reliability is estimated based on Monte Carlo simulation. A correlation between the strength of the structural elements is introduced. The results indicate that the reliability of a structural timber system...

A human reliability based usability evaluation method for safety-critical software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boring, R. L.; Tran, T. Q.; Gertman, D. I.; Ragsdale, A.

2006-01-01

Boring and Gertman (2005) introduced a novel method that augments heuristic usability evaluation methods with that of the human reliability analysis method of SPAR-H. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to individual heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). Although this UEP is not a literal probability of error, it nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. This method allows one to seamlessly prioritize and identify usability issues (i.e., a higher UEP requires more immediate fixes). However, the original version of this method required the usability evaluator to assign priority weights to the final UEP, thus allowing the priority of a usability issue to differ among usability evaluators. The purpose of this paper is to explore an alternative approach to standardize the priority weighting of the UEP in an effort to improve the method's reliability. (authors)

ESCAF - Failure simulation and reliability calculation device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laviron, A.; Berard, C.; Quenee, R.

1979-01-01

Reliability studies of nuclear power plant safety functions have, up to now, required the use of large computers. As they are of universal use, these big machines are not very well adapted to deal with reliability problems at low cost. ESCAF has been developed to be substituted for large computers in order to save time and money. ESCAF is a small electronic device which can be used in connection with a minicomputer. It allows to perform complex system reliability analysis (qualitative and quantitative) and to study critical element influences such as common cause failures. In this paper, the device is described and its features and abilities are outlined: easy to implement, swift running, low working cost. Its application range concerns all cases when a good reliability is needed

Reliability estimation of safety-critical software-based systems using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helminen, A.

2001-06-01

Due to the nature of software faults and the way they cause system failures new methods are needed for the safety and reliability evaluation of software-based safety-critical automation systems in nuclear power plants. In the research project 'Programmable automation system safety integrity assessment (PASSI)', belonging to the Finnish Nuclear Safety Research Programme (FINNUS, 1999-2002), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. The project is financed together by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry (KTM) and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). In this report the applicability of Bayesian networks to the reliability estimation of software-based systems is studied. The applicability is evaluated by building Bayesian network models for the systems of interest and performing simulations for these models. In the simulations hypothetical evidence is used for defining the parameter relations and for determining the ability to compensate disparate evidence in the models. Based on the experiences from modelling and simulations we are able to conclude that Bayesian networks provide a good method for the reliability estimation of software-based systems. (orig.)

An exact method for solving logical loops in reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuoka, Takeshi

2009-01-01

This paper presents an exact method for solving logical loops in reliability analysis. The systems that include logical loops are usually described by simultaneous Boolean equations. First, present a basic rule of solving simultaneous Boolean equations. Next, show the analysis procedures for three-component system with external supports. Third, more detailed discussions are given for the establishment of logical loop relation. Finally, take up two typical structures which include more than one logical loop. Their analysis results and corresponding GO-FLOW charts are given. The proposed analytical method is applicable to loop structures that can be described by simultaneous Boolean equations, and it is very useful in evaluating the reliability of complex engineering systems.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

A reliability analysis framework with Monte Carlo simulation for weld structure of crane's beam

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kefei; Xu, Hongwei; Qu, Fuzheng; Wang, Xin; Shi, Yanjun

2018-04-01

The reliability of the crane product in engineering is the core competitiveness of the product. This paper used Monte Carlo method analyzed the reliability of the weld metal structure of the bridge crane whose limit state function is mathematical expression. Then we obtained the minimum reliable welding feet height value for the welds between cover plate and web plate on main beam in different coefficients of variation. This paper provides a new idea and reference for the growth of the inherent reliability of crane.

Integrated Markov-neural reliability computation method: A case for multiple automated guided vehicle system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazlollahtabar, Hamed; Saidi-Mehrabad, Mohammad; Balakrishnan, Jaydeep

2015-01-01

This paper proposes an integrated Markovian and back propagation neural network approaches to compute reliability of a system. While states of failure occurrences are significant elements for accurate reliability computation, Markovian based reliability assessment method is designed. Due to drawbacks shown by Markovian model for steady state reliability computations and neural network for initial training pattern, integration being called Markov-neural is developed and evaluated. To show efficiency of the proposed approach comparative analyses are performed. Also, for managerial implication purpose an application case for multiple automated guided vehicles (AGVs) in manufacturing networks is conducted. - Highlights: • Integrated Markovian and back propagation neural network approach to compute reliability. • Markovian based reliability assessment method. • Managerial implication is shown in an application case for multiple automated guided vehicles (AGVs) in manufacturing networks

The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia global rating scale is a reliable tool for simulation-based assessment in pediatric anesthesia crisis management.

Science.gov (United States)

Everett, Tobias C; Ng, Elaine; Power, Daniel; Marsh, Christopher; Tolchard, Stephen; Shadrina, Anna; Bould, Matthew D

2013-12-01

The use of simulation-based assessments for high-stakes physician examinations remains controversial. The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia course uses simulation to teach evidence-based management of anesthesia crises to trainee anesthetists in the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada. In this study, we investigated the feasibility and reliability of custom-designed scenario-specific performance checklists and a global rating scale (GRS) assessing readiness for independent practice. After research ethics board approval, subjects were videoed managing simulated pediatric anesthesia crises in a single Canadian teaching hospital. Each subject was randomized to two of six different scenarios. All 60 scenarios were subsequently rated by four blinded raters (two in the UK, two in Canada) using the checklists and GRS. The actual and predicted reliability of the tools was calculated for different numbers of raters using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Average measures ICCs ranged from 'substantial' to 'near perfect' (P ≤ 0.001). The reliability of the checklists and the GRS was similar. Single measures ICCs showed more variability than average measures ICC. At least two raters would be required to achieve acceptable reliability. We have established the reliability of a GRS to assess the management of simulated crisis scenarios in pediatric anesthesia, and this tool is feasible within the setting of a research study. The global rating scale allows raters to make a judgement regarding a participant's readiness for independent practice. These tools may be used in the future research examining simulation-based assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reliability Analysis Of Fire System On The Industry Facility By Use Fameca Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sony T, D.T.; Situmorang, Johnny; Ismu W, Puradwi; Demon H; Mulyanto, Dwijo; Kusmono, Slamet; Santa, Sigit Asmara

2000-01-01

FAMECA is one of the analysis method to determine system reliability on the industry facility. Analysis is done by some procedure that is identification of component function, determination of failure mode, severity level and effect of their failure. Reliability value is determined by three combinations that is severity level, component failure value and critical component. Reliability of analysis has been done for fire system on the industry by FAMECA method. Critical component which identified is pump, air release valve, check valve, manual test valve, isolation valve, control system etc

Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of normal and touch mode MEMS capacitive pressure sensor: modeling and simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Jindal, Sumit Kumar; Mahajan, Ankush; Raghuwanshi, Sanjeev Kumar

2017-10-01

An analytical model and numerical simulation for the performance of MEMS capacitive pressure sensors in both normal and touch modes is required for expected behavior of the sensor prior to their fabrication. Obtaining such information should be based on a complete analysis of performance parameters such as deflection of diaphragm, change of capacitance when the diaphragm deflects, and sensitivity of the sensor. In the literature, limited work has been carried out on the above-stated issue; moreover, due to approximation factors of polynomials, a tolerance error cannot be overseen. Reliable before-fabrication forecasting requires exact mathematical calculation of the parameters involved. A second-order polynomial equation is calculated mathematically for key performance parameters of both modes. This eliminates the approximation factor, and an exact result can be studied, maintaining high accuracy. The elimination of approximation factors and an approach of exact results are based on a new design parameter (δ) that we propose. The design parameter gives an initial hint to the designers on how the sensor will behave once it is fabricated. The complete work is aided by extensive mathematical detailing of all the parameters involved. Next, we verified our claims using MATLAB® simulation. Since MATLAB® effectively provides the simulation theory for the design approach, more complicated finite element method is not used.

COMPOSITE METHOD OF RELIABILITY RESEARCH FOR HIERARCHICAL MULTILAYER ROUTING SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. B. Tregubov

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the idea of a research method for hierarchical multilayer routing systems. The method represents a composition of methods of graph theories, reliability, probabilities, etc. These methods are applied to the solution of different private analysis and optimization tasks and are systemically connected and coordinated with each other through uniform set-theoretic representation of the object of research. The hierarchical multilayer routing systems are considered as infrastructure facilities (gas and oil pipelines, automobile and railway networks, systems of power supply and communication with distribution of material resources, energy or information with the use of hierarchically nested functions of routing. For descriptive reasons theoretical constructions are considered on the example of task solution of probability determination for up state of specific infocommunication system. The author showed the possibility of constructive combination of graph representation of structure of the object of research and a logic probable analysis method of its reliability indices through uniform set-theoretic representation of its elements and processes proceeding in them.

A study in the reliability analysis method for nuclear power plant structures (I)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Byung Hwan; Choi, Seong Cheol; Shin, Ho Sang; Yang, In Hwan; Kim, Yi Sung; Yu, Young; Kim, Se Hun [Seoul, Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1999-03-15

Nuclear power plant structures may be exposed to aggressive environmental effects that may cause their strength and stiffness to decrease over their service life. Although the physics of these damage mechanisms are reasonably well understood and quantitative evaluation of their effects on time-dependent structural behavior is possible in some instances, such evaluations are generally very difficult and remain novel. The assessment of existing steel containment in nuclear power plants for continued service must provide quantitative evidence that they are able to withstand future extreme loads during a service period with an acceptable level of reliability. Rational methodologies to perform the reliability assessment can be developed from mechanistic models of structural deterioration, using time-dependent structural reliability analysis to take loading and strength uncertainties into account. The final goal of this study is to develop the analysis method for the reliability of containment structures. The cause and mechanism of corrosion is first clarified and the reliability assessment method has been established. By introducing the equivalent normal distribution, the procedure of reliability analysis which can determine the failure probabilities has been established. The influence of design variables to reliability and the relation between the reliability and service life will be continued second year research.

Procedures and methods that increase reliability and reproducibility of the transplanted kidney perfusion index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smokvina, A.

1994-01-01

At different times following surgery and during various complications, 119 studies were performed on 57 patients. In many patients studies were repeated several times. Twenty-three studies were performed in as many patients, in whom a normal function of the transplanted kidney was established by other diagnostic methods and retrospective analysis. Comparison was made of the perfusion index results obtained by the Hilson et al. method from 1978 and the ones obtained by my own modified method, which for calculating the index also takes into account: the time difference in appearance of the initial portions of the artery and kidney curves; the positioning of the region of interest over the distal part of the aorta; the bolus injection into the arteriovenous shunt of the forearm with high specific activity of small volumes of Tc-99m labelled agents; a fast 0.5 seconds study of data collection; and a standard for normalization of numerical data. The reliability of one or the other method tested by simulated time shift of the peak of arterial curves shows that the deviation percentage from the main index value in the unmodified method is 2-5 times greater than in the modified method. The normal value of the perfusion index applying the modified method is 91-171. (author)

Minimizing the Discrepancy between Simulated and Historical Failures in Turbine Engines: A Simulation-Based Optimization Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Kibria

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The reliability modeling of a module in a turbine engine requires knowledge of its failure rate, which can be estimated by identifying statistical distributions describing the percentage of failure per component within the turbine module. The correct definition of the failure statistical behavior per component is highly dependent on the engineer skills and may present significant discrepancies with respect to the historical data. There is no formal methodology to approach this problem and a large number of labor hours are spent trying to reduce the discrepancy by manually adjusting the distribution’s parameters. This paper addresses this problem and provides a simulation-based optimization method for the minimization of the discrepancy between the simulated and the historical percentage of failures for turbine engine components. The proposed methodology optimizes the parameter values of the component’s failure statistical distributions within the component’s likelihood confidence bounds. A complete testing of the proposed method is performed on a turbine engine case study. The method can be considered as a decision-making tool for maintenance, repair, and overhaul companies and will potentially reduce the cost of labor associated to finding the appropriate value of the distribution parameters for each component/failure mode in the model and increase the accuracy in the prediction of the mean time to failures (MTTF.

Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorndahl, S; Willems, P

2008-01-01

Failure of urban drainage systems may occur due to surcharge or flooding at specific manholes in the system, or due to overflows from combined sewer systems to receiving waters. To quantify the probability or return period of failure, standard approaches make use of the simulation of design storms or long historical rainfall series in a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage system. In this paper, an alternative probabilistic method is investigated: the first-order reliability method (FORM). To apply this method, a long rainfall time series was divided in rainstorms (rain events), and each rainstorm conceptualized to a synthetic rainfall hyetograph by a Gaussian shape with the parameters rainstorm depth, duration and peak intensity. Probability distributions were calibrated for these three parameters and used on the basis of the failure probability estimation, together with a hydrodynamic simulation model to determine the failure conditions for each set of parameters. The method takes into account the uncertainties involved in the rainstorm parameterization. Comparison is made between the failure probability results of the FORM method, the standard method using long-term simulations and alternative methods based on random sampling (Monte Carlo direct sampling and importance sampling). It is concluded that without crucial influence on the modelling accuracy, the FORM is very applicable as an alternative to traditional long-term simulations of urban drainage systems.

A comparative study on the HW reliability assessment methods for digital I and C equipment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, G. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea); Kim, M. C. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea); Jun, S. T. [KHNP, Taejeon (Korea)

2002-03-01

It is necessary to predict or to evaluate the reliability of electronic equipment for the probabilistic safety analysis of digital instrument and control equipment. But most databases for the reliability prediction have no data for the up-to-date equipment and the failure modes are not classified. The prediction results for the specific component show different values according to the methods and databases. For boards and systems each method shows different values than others also. This study is for reliability prediction of PDC system for Wolsong NPP1 as a digital I and C equipment. Various reliability prediction methods and failure databases are used in calculation of the reliability to compare the effects of sensitivity and accuracy of each model and database. Many considerations for the reliability assessment of digital systems are derived with the results of this study. 14 refs., 19 figs., 15 tabs. (Author)

Reliability analysis with linguistic data: An evidential network approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xiaoge; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Deng, Xinyang

2017-01-01

In practical applications of reliability assessment of a system in-service, information about the condition of a system and its components is often available in text form, e.g., inspection reports. Estimation of the system reliability from such text-based records becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a four-step framework to deal with this problem. In the first step, we construct an evidential network with the consideration of available knowledge and data. Secondly, we train a Naive Bayes text classification algorithm based on the past records. By using the trained Naive Bayes algorithm to classify the new records, we build interval basic probability assignments (BPA) for each new record available in text form. Thirdly, we combine the interval BPAs of multiple new records using an evidence combination approach based on evidence theory. Finally, we propagate the interval BPA through the evidential network constructed earlier to obtain the system reliability. Two numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) results. - Highlights: • We model reliability analysis with linguistic data using evidential network. • Two examples are used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method. • We compare the results with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS).

Quantitative evaluation of fault coverage for digitalized systems in NPPs using simulated fault injection method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Suk Joon

2004-02-01

Even though digital systems have numerous advantages such as precise processing of data, enhanced calculation capability over the conventional analog systems, there is a strong restriction on the application of digital systems to the safety systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because we do not fully understand the reliability of digital systems, and therefore we cannot guarantee the safety of digital systems. But, as the need for introduction of digital systems to safety systems in NPPs increasing, the need for the quantitative analysis on the safety of digital systems is also increasing. NPPs, which are quite conservative in terms of safety, require proving the reliability of digital systems when applied them to the NPPs. Moreover, digital systems which are applied to the NPPs are required to increase the overall safety of NPPs. however, it is very difficult to evaluate the reliability of digital systems because they include the complex fault processing mechanisms at various levels of the systems. Software is another obstacle in reliability assessment of the systems that requires ultra-high reliability. In this work, the fault detection coverage for the digital system is evaluated using simulated fault injection method. The target system is the Local Coincidence Logic (LCL) processor in Digital Plant Protection System (DPPS). However, as the LCL processor is difficult to design equally for evaluating the fault detection coverage, the LCL system has to be simplified. The simulations for evaluating the fault detection coverage of components are performed by dividing into two cases and the failure rates of components are evaluated using MIL-HDBK-217F. Using these results, the fault detection coverage of simplified LCL system is evaluated. In the experiments, heartbeat signals were just emitted at regular interval after executing logic without self-checking algorithm. When faults are injected into the simplified system, fault occurrence can be detected by

Model correction factor method for reliability problems involving integrals of non-Gaussian random fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Franchin, P.; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Kiureghian, Armen Der

2002-01-01

The model correction factor method (MCFM) is used in conjunction with the first-order reliability method (FORM) to solve structural reliability problems involving integrals of non-Gaussian random fields. The approach replaces the limit-state function with an idealized one, in which the integrals ...

On the potential of computational methods and numerical simulation in ice mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergan, Paal G; Cammaert, Gus; Skeie, Geir; Tharigopula, Venkatapathi

2010-01-01

This paper deals with the challenge of developing better methods and tools for analysing interaction between sea ice and structures and, in particular, to be able to calculate ice loads on these structures. Ice loads have traditionally been estimated using empirical data and 'engineering judgment'. However, it is believed that computational mechanics and advanced computer simulations of ice-structure interaction can play an important role in developing safer and more efficient structures, especially for irregular structural configurations. The paper explains the complexity of ice as a material in computational mechanics terms. Some key words here are large displacements and deformations, multi-body contact mechanics, instabilities, multi-phase materials, inelasticity, time dependency and creep, thermal effects, fracture and crushing, and multi-scale effects. The paper points towards the use of advanced methods like ALE formulations, mesh-less methods, particle methods, XFEM, and multi-domain formulations in order to deal with these challenges. Some examples involving numerical simulation of interaction and loads between level sea ice and offshore structures are presented. It is concluded that computational mechanics may prove to become a very useful tool for analysing structures in ice; however, much research is still needed to achieve satisfactory reliability and versatility of these methods.

A hybrid load flow and event driven simulation approach to multi-state system reliability evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George-Williams, Hindolo; Patelli, Edoardo

2016-01-01

Structural complexity of systems, coupled with their multi-state characteristics, renders their reliability and availability evaluation difficult. Notwithstanding the emergence of various techniques dedicated to complex multi-state system analysis, simulation remains the only approach applicable to realistic systems. However, most simulation algorithms are either system specific or limited to simple systems since they require enumerating all possible system states, defining the cut-sets associated with each state and monitoring their occurrence. In addition to being extremely tedious for large complex systems, state enumeration and cut-set definition require a detailed understanding of the system's failure mechanism. In this paper, a simple and generally applicable simulation approach, enhanced for multi-state systems of any topology is presented. Here, each component is defined as a Semi-Markov stochastic process and via discrete-event simulation, the operation of the system is mimicked. The principles of flow conservation are invoked to determine flow across the system for every performance level change of its components using the interior-point algorithm. This eliminates the need for cut-set definition and overcomes the limitations of existing techniques. The methodology can also be exploited to account for effects of transmission efficiency and loading restrictions of components on system reliability and performance. The principles and algorithms developed are applied to two numerical examples to demonstrate their applicability. - Highlights: • A discrete event simulation model based on load flow principles. • Model does not require system path or cut sets. • Applicable to binary and multi-state systems of any topology. • Supports multiple output systems with competing demand. • Model is intuitive and generally applicable.

A dynamic discretization method for reliability inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Jiandao; Collette, Matthew

2015-01-01

The material and modeling parameters that drive structural reliability analysis for marine structures are subject to a significant uncertainty. This is especially true when time-dependent degradation mechanisms such as structural fatigue cracking are considered. Through inspection and monitoring, information such as crack location and size can be obtained to improve these parameters and the corresponding reliability estimates. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are a powerful and flexible tool to model dynamic system behavior and update reliability and uncertainty analysis with life cycle data for problems such as fatigue cracking. However, a central challenge in using DBNs is the need to discretize certain types of continuous random variables to perform network inference while still accurately tracking low-probability failure events. Most existing discretization methods focus on getting the overall shape of the distribution correct, with less emphasis on the tail region. Therefore, a novel scheme is presented specifically to estimate the likelihood of low-probability failure events. The scheme is an iterative algorithm which dynamically partitions the discretization intervals at each iteration. Through applications to two stochastic crack-growth example problems, the algorithm is shown to be robust and accurate. Comparisons are presented between the proposed approach and existing methods for the discretization problem. - Highlights: • A dynamic discretization method is developed for low-probability events in DBNs. • The method is compared to existing approaches on two crack growth problems. • The method is shown to improve on existing methods for low-probability events

Reliability analysis of reinforced concrete grids with nonlinear material behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neves, Rodrigo A [EESC-USP, Av. Trabalhador Sao Carlense, 400, 13566-590 Sao Carlos (Brazil); Chateauneuf, Alaa [LaMI-UBP and IFMA, Campus de Clermont-Fd, Les Cezeaux, BP 265, 63175 Aubiere cedex (France)]. E-mail: alaa.chateauneuf@ifma.fr; Venturini, Wilson S [EESC-USP, Av. Trabalhador Sao Carlense, 400, 13566-590 Sao Carlos (Brazil)]. E-mail: venturin@sc.usp.br; Lemaire, Maurice [LaMI-UBP and IFMA, Campus de Clermont-Fd, Les Cezeaux, BP 265, 63175 Aubiere cedex (France)

2006-06-15

Reinforced concrete grids are usually used to support large floor slabs. These grids are characterized by a great number of critical cross-sections, where the overall failure is usually sudden. However, nonlinear behavior of concrete leads to the redistribution of internal forces and accurate reliability assessment becomes mandatory. This paper presents a reliability study on reinforced concrete (RC) grids based on coupling Monte Carlo simulations with the response surface techniques. This approach allows us to analyze real RC grids with large number of failure components. The response surface is used to evaluate the structural safety by using first order reliability methods. The application to simple grids shows the interest of the proposed method and the role of moment redistribution in the reliability assessment.

Reliability assessment of complex electromechanical systems under epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mi, Jinhua; Li, Yan-Feng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2016-01-01

The appearance of macro-engineering and mega-project have led to the increasing complexity of modern electromechanical systems (EMSs). The complexity of the system structure and failure mechanism makes it more difficult for reliability assessment of these systems. Uncertainty, dynamic and nonlinearity characteristics always exist in engineering systems due to the complexity introduced by the changing environments, lack of data and random interference. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the reliability assessment of complex systems. In view of the dynamic characteristics within the system, it makes use of the advantages of the dynamic fault tree (DFT) for characterizing system behaviors. The lifetime of system units can be expressed as bounded closed intervals by incorporating field failures, test data and design expertize. Then the coefficient of variation (COV) method is employed to estimate the parameters of life distributions. An extended probability-box (P-Box) is proposed to convey the present of epistemic uncertainty induced by the incomplete information about the data. By mapping the DFT into an equivalent Bayesian network (BN), relevant reliability parameters and indexes have been calculated. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method is utilized to compute the DFT model with consideration of system replacement policy. The results show that this integrated approach is more flexible and effective for assessing the reliability of complex dynamic systems. - Highlights: • A comprehensive study on the reliability assessment of complex system is presented. • An extended probability-box is proposed to convey the present of epistemic uncertainty. • The dynamic fault tree model is built. • Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used. • The reliability assessment of a complex electromechanical system is performed.

Interrater Reliability of the Power Mobility Road Test in the Virtual Reality-Based Simulator-2.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamaraj, Deepan C; Dicianno, Brad E; Mahajan, Harshal P; Buhari, Alhaji M; Cooper, Rory A

2016-07-01

To assess interrater reliability of the Power Mobility Road Test (PMRT) when administered through the Virtual Reality-based SIMulator-version 2 (VRSIM-2). Within-subjects repeated-measures design. Participants interacted with VRSIM-2 through 2 display options (desktop monitor vs immersive virtual reality screens) using 2 control interfaces (roller system vs conventional movement-sensing joystick), providing 4 different driving scenarios (driving conditions 1-4). Participants performed 3 virtual driving sessions for each of the 2 display screens and 1 session through a real-world driving course (driving condition 5). The virtual PMRT was conducted in a simulated indoor office space, and an equivalent course was charted in an open space for the real-world assessment. After every change in driving condition, participants completed a self-reported workload assessment questionnaire, the Task Load Index, developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. A convenience sample of electric-powered wheelchair (EPW) athletes (N=21) recruited at the 31st National Veterans Wheelchair Games. Not applicable. Total composite PMRT score. The PMRT had high interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC]>.75) between the 2 raters in all 5 driving conditions. Post hoc analyses revealed that the reliability analyses had >80% power to detect high ICCs in driving conditions 1 and 4. The PMRT has high interrater reliability in conditions 1 and 4 and could be used to assess EPW driving performance virtually in VRSIM-2. However, further psychometric assessment is necessary to assess the feasibility of administering the PMRT using the different interfaces of VRSIM-2. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Loss Synchronization on Reliable High Speed Networks: A Model Based Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suman Kumar

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Contemporary nature of network evolution demands for simulation models which are flexible, scalable, and easily implementable. In this paper, we propose a fluid based model for performance analysis of reliable high speed networks. In particular, this paper aims to study the dynamic relationship between congestion control algorithms and queue management schemes, in order to develop a better understanding of the causal linkages between the two. We propose a loss synchronization module which is user configurable. We validate our model through simulations under controlled settings. Also, we present a performance analysis to provide insights into two important issues concerning 10 Gbps high speed networks: (i impact of bottleneck buffer size on the performance of 10 Gbps high speed network and (ii impact of level of loss synchronization on link utilization-fairness tradeoffs. The practical impact of the proposed work is to provide design guidelines along with a powerful simulation tool to protocol designers and network developers.

GEM simulation methods development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tikhonov, V.; Veenhof, R.

2002-01-01

A review of methods used in the simulation of processes in gas electron multipliers (GEMs) and in the accurate calculation of detector characteristics is presented. Such detector characteristics as effective gas gain, transparency, charge collection and losses have been calculated and optimized for a number of GEM geometries and compared with experiment. A method and a new special program for calculations of detector macro-characteristics such as signal response in a real detector readout structure, and spatial and time resolution of detectors have been developed and used for detector optimization. A detailed development of signal induction on readout electrodes and electronics characteristics are included in the new program. A method for the simulation of charging-up effects in GEM detectors is described. All methods show good agreement with experiment

Design of a composite structure to achieve a specified reliability level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyer, C.; Beakou, A.; Lemaire, M.

1997-01-01

Safety factors are widely used in structural design. For composite material structures, however, the lack of experimental feed-back does not allow the use of safety factors optimized from cost and reliability point of view. Reliability methods are one way to achieve the calibration of partial safety factors using a more rational method than judgement alone. First we present the calibration process. The reliability methods FORM, SORM, simulation, are initially applied to a laminate plate under uniform pressure. In this example, we compare three design criteria; the different reliability methods agree with the reference method for all criteria used. We chose the Tsai-Hill criteria and the FORM method to calculate safety factors. Then, a calibration process is undertaken on a composite pipe and this serves to illustrate the different steps in the calculation. Finally, we present a calibration of a general plate structure. The partial safety factors and their sensitivities to the different parameters of the stochastic variables are given according to load type

Reliability and discriminatory power of methods for dental plaque quantification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Prócida Raggio

2010-04-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: This in situ study evaluated the discriminatory power and reliability of methods of dental plaque quantification and the relationship between visual indices (VI and fluorescence camera (FC to detect plaque. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Six volunteers used palatal appliances with six bovine enamel blocks presenting different stages of plaque accumulation. The presence of plaque with and without disclosing was assessed using VI. Images were obtained with FC and digital camera in both conditions. The area covered by plaque was assessed. Examinations were done by two independent examiners. Data were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kappa tests to compare different conditions of samples and to assess the inter-examiner reproducibility. RESULTS: Some methods presented adequate reproducibility. The Turesky index and the assessment of area covered by disclosed plaque in the FC images presented the highest discriminatory powers. CONCLUSION: The Turesky index and images with FC with disclosing present good reliability and discriminatory power in quantifying dental plaque.

Application of reliability analysis methods to the comparison of two safety circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Signoret, J.-P.

1975-01-01

Two circuits of different design, intended for assuming the ''Low Pressure Safety Injection'' function in PWR reactors are analyzed using reliability methods. The reliability analysis of these circuits allows the failure trees to be established and the failure probability derived. The dependence of these results on test use and maintenance is emphasized as well as critical paths. The great number of results obtained may allow a well-informed choice taking account of the reliability wanted for the type of circuits [fr

Reliability of Lyapunov characteristic exponents computed by the two-particle method

Science.gov (United States)

Mei, Lijie; Huang, Li

2018-03-01

For highly complex problems, such as the post-Newtonian formulation of compact binaries, the two-particle method may be a better, or even the only, choice to compute the Lyapunov characteristic exponent (LCE). This method avoids the complex calculations of variational equations compared with the variational method. However, the two-particle method sometimes provides spurious estimates to LCEs. In this paper, we first analyze the equivalence in the definition of LCE between the variational and two-particle methods for Hamiltonian systems. Then, we develop a criterion to determine the reliability of LCEs computed by the two-particle method by considering the magnitude of the initial tangent (or separation) vector ξ0 (or δ0), renormalization time interval τ, machine precision ε, and global truncation error ɛT. The reliable Lyapunov characteristic indicators estimated by the two-particle method form a V-shaped region, which is restricted by d0, ε, and ɛT. Finally, the numerical experiments with the Hénon-Heiles system, the spinning compact binaries, and the post-Newtonian circular restricted three-body problem strongly support the theoretical results.

Reliability analysis of cluster-based ad-hoc networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, Jason L.; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

2008-01-01

The mobile ad-hoc wireless network (MAWN) is a new and emerging network scheme that is being employed in a variety of applications. The MAWN varies from traditional networks because it is a self-forming and dynamic network. The MAWN is free of infrastructure and, as such, only the mobile nodes comprise the network. Pairs of nodes communicate either directly or through other nodes. To do so, each node acts, in turn, as a source, destination, and relay of messages. The virtue of a MAWN is the flexibility this provides; however, the challenge for reliability analyses is also brought about by this unique feature. The variability and volatility of the MAWN configuration makes typical reliability methods (e.g. reliability block diagram) inappropriate because no single structure or configuration represents all manifestations of a MAWN. For this reason, new methods are being developed to analyze the reliability of this new networking technology. New published methods adapt to this feature by treating the configuration probabilistically or by inclusion of embedded mobility models. This paper joins both methods together and expands upon these works by modifying the problem formulation to address the reliability analysis of a cluster-based MAWN. The cluster-based MAWN is deployed in applications with constraints on networking resources such as bandwidth and energy. This paper presents the problem's formulation, a discussion of applicable reliability metrics for the MAWN, and illustration of a Monte Carlo simulation method through the analysis of several example networks

Dependent systems reliability estimation by structural reliability approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Estimation of system reliability by classical system reliability methods generally assumes that the components are statistically independent, thus limiting its applicability in many practical situations. A method is proposed for estimation of the system reliability with dependent components, where...... the leading failure mechanism(s) is described by physics of failure model(s). The proposed method is based on structural reliability techniques and accounts for both statistical and failure effect correlations. It is assumed that failure of any component is due to increasing damage (fatigue phenomena...... identification. Application of the proposed method can be found in many real world systems....

Dynamic analysis and reliability assessment of structures with uncertain-but-bounded parameters under stochastic process excitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Do, Duy Minh; Gao, Wei; Song, Chongmin; Tangaramvong, Sawekchai

2014-01-01

This paper presents the non-deterministic dynamic analysis and reliability assessment of structures with uncertain-but-bounded parameters under stochastic process excitations. Random ground acceleration from earthquake motion is adopted to illustrate the stochastic process force. The exact change ranges of natural frequencies, random vibration displacement and stress responses of structures are investigated under the interval analysis framework. Formulations for structural reliability are developed considering the safe boundary and structural random vibration responses as interval parameters. An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, namely randomised lower sequence initialized high-order nonlinear particle swarm optimization algorithm, is employed to capture the better bounds of structural dynamic characteristics, random vibration responses and reliability. Three numerical examples are used to demonstrate the presented method for interval random vibration analysis and reliability assessment of structures. The accuracy of the results obtained by the presented method is verified by the randomised Quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method (QMCSM) and direct Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM). - Highlights: • Interval uncertainty is introduced into structural random vibration responses. • Interval dynamic reliability assessments of structures are implemented. • Boundaries of structural dynamic response and reliability are achieved

A fast approximation method for reliability analysis of cold-standby systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Amari, Suprasad V.

2012-01-01

Analyzing reliability of large cold-standby systems has been a complicated and time-consuming task, especially for systems with components having non-exponential time-to-failure distributions. In this paper, an approximation model, which is based on the central limit theorem, is presented for the reliability analysis of binary cold-standby systems. The proposed model can estimate the reliability of large cold-standby systems with binary-state components having arbitrary time-to-failure distributions in an efficient and easy way. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are illustrated using several different types of distributions for both 1-out-of-n and k-out-of-n cold-standby systems.

A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Lizhi; Pan, Rong; Li, Xiaoyang; Jiang, Tongmin

2013-01-01

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is a common approach in reliability prediction, especially for products with high reliability. However, oftentimes the laboratory condition of ADT is different from the field condition; thus, to predict field failure, one need to calibrate the prediction made by using ADT data. In this paper a Bayesian evaluation method is proposed to integrate the ADT data from laboratory with the failure data from field. Calibration factors are introduced to calibrate the difference between the lab and the field conditions so as to predict a product's actual field reliability more accurately. The information fusion and statistical inference procedure are carried out through a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is demonstrated by two examples and the sensitivity analysis to prior distribution assumption

Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method; Analiza pouzdanosti reaktorskih sistema primenom metoda verovatnoce

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milivojevic, S [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Serbia and Montenegro)

1974-12-15

Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component.

Dynamic bounds coupled with Monte Carlo simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Meester, L.E.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Vrijling, J.K.

2011-01-01

For the reliability analysis of engineering structures a variety of methods is known, of which Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely considered to be among the most robust and most generally applicable. To reduce simulation cost of the MC method, variance reduction methods are applied. This paper

Calculation of the reliability of large complex systems by the relevant path method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter, G.

1975-03-01

In this paper, analytical methods are presented and tested with which the probabilistic reliability data of technical systems can be determined for given fault trees and block diagrams and known reliability data of the components. (orig./AK) [de

Review of Reliability-Based Design Optimization Approach and Its Integration with Bayesian Method

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiangnan

2018-03-01

A lot of uncertain factors lie in practical engineering, such as external load environment, material property, geometrical shape, initial condition, boundary condition, etc. Reliability method measures the structural safety condition and determine the optimal design parameter combination based on the probabilistic theory. Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is the most commonly used approach to minimize the structural cost or other performance under uncertainty variables which combines the reliability theory and optimization. However, it cannot handle the various incomplete information. The Bayesian approach is utilized to incorporate this kind of incomplete information in its uncertainty quantification. In this paper, the RBDO approach and its integration with Bayesian method are introduced.

A reliable method for the stability analysis of structures ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The detection of structural configurations with singular tangent stiffness matrix is essential because they can be unstable. The secondary paths, especially in unstable buckling, can play the most important role in the loss of stability and collapse of the structure. A new method for reliable detection and accurate computation of ...

The complex network reliability and influential nodes

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Kai; He, Yongfeng

2017-08-01

In order to study the complex network node important degree and reliability, considering semi-local centrality, betweenness centrality and PageRank algorithm, through the simulation method to gradually remove nodes and recalculate the importance in the random network, small world network and scale-free network. Study the relationship between the largest connected component and node removed proportion, the research results show that betweenness centrality and PageRank algorithm based on the global information network are more effective for evaluating the importance of nodes, and the reliability of the network is related to the network topology.

Detector Simulation: Data Treatment and Analysis Methods

CERN Document Server

Apostolakis, J

2011-01-01

Detector Simulation in 'Data Treatment and Analysis Methods', part of 'Landolt-Börnstein - Group I Elementary Particles, Nuclei and Atoms: Numerical Data and Functional Relationships in Science and Technology, Volume 21B1: Detectors for Particles and Radiation. Part 1: Principles and Methods'. This document is part of Part 1 'Principles and Methods' of Subvolume B 'Detectors for Particles and Radiation' of Volume 21 'Elementary Particles' of Landolt-Börnstein - Group I 'Elementary Particles, Nuclei and Atoms'. It contains the Section '4.1 Detector Simulation' of Chapter '4 Data Treatment and Analysis Methods' with the content: 4.1 Detector Simulation 4.1.1 Overview of simulation 4.1.1.1 Uses of detector simulation 4.1.2 Stages and types of simulation 4.1.2.1 Tools for event generation and detector simulation 4.1.2.2 Level of simulation and computation time 4.1.2.3 Radiation effects and background studies 4.1.3 Components of detector simulation 4.1.3.1 Geometry modeling 4.1.3.2 External fields 4.1.3.3 Intro...

Reliability Calculations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Kurt Erling

1986-01-01

Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

Screening of groundwater remedial alternatives for brownfield sites: a comprehensive method integrated MCDA with numerical simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wei; Zhang, Min; Wang, Mingyu; Han, Zhantao; Liu, Jiankai; Chen, Zhezhou; Liu, Bo; Yan, Yan; Liu, Zhu

2018-06-01

Brownfield sites pollution and remediation is an urgent environmental issue worldwide. The screening and assessment of remedial alternatives is especially complex owing to its multiple criteria that involves technique, economy, and policy. To help the decision-makers selecting the remedial alternatives efficiently, the criteria framework conducted by the U.S. EPA is improved and a comprehensive method that integrates multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with numerical simulation is conducted in this paper. The criteria framework is modified and classified into three categories: qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative criteria, MCDA method, AHP-PROMETHEE (analytical hierarchy process-preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation) is used to determine the priority ranking of the remedial alternatives and the solute transport simulation is conducted to assess the remedial efficiency. A case study was present to demonstrate the screening method in a brownfield site in Cangzhou, northern China. The results show that the systematic method provides a reliable way to quantify the priority of the remedial alternatives.

Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Willems, Patrick

2007-01-01

Failure of urban drainage systems may occur due to surcharge or flooding at specific manholes in the system, or due to overflows from combined sewer systems to receiving waters. To quantify the probability or return period of failure, standard approaches make use of the simulation of design storms...... or long historical rainfall series in a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage system. In this paper, an alternative probabilistic method is investigated: the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). To apply this method, a long rainfall time series was divided in rain storms (rain events), and each rain...

Simulation-based Assessment to Reliably Identify Key Resident Performance Attributes.

Science.gov (United States)

Blum, Richard H; Muret-Wagstaff, Sharon L; Boulet, John R; Cooper, Jeffrey B; Petrusa, Emil R; Baker, Keith H; Davidyuk, Galina; Dearden, Jennifer L; Feinstein, David M; Jones, Stephanie B; Kimball, William R; Mitchell, John D; Nadelberg, Robert L; Wiser, Sarah H; Albrecht, Meredith A; Anastasi, Amanda K; Bose, Ruma R; Chang, Laura Y; Culley, Deborah J; Fisher, Lauren J; Grover, Meera; Klainer, Suzanne B; Kveraga, Rikante; Martel, Jeffrey P; McKenna, Shannon S; Minehart, Rebecca D; Mitchell, John D; Mountjoy, Jeremi R; Pawlowski, John B; Pilon, Robert N; Shook, Douglas C; Silver, David A; Warfield, Carol A; Zaleski, Katherine L

2018-04-01

Obtaining reliable and valid information on resident performance is critical to patient safety and training program improvement. The goals were to characterize important anesthesia resident performance gaps that are not typically evaluated, and to further validate scores from a multiscenario simulation-based assessment. Seven high-fidelity scenarios reflecting core anesthesiology skills were administered to 51 first-year residents (CA-1s) and 16 third-year residents (CA-3s) from three residency programs. Twenty trained attending anesthesiologists rated resident performances using a seven-point behaviorally anchored rating scale for five domains: (1) formulate a clear plan, (2) modify the plan under changing conditions, (3) communicate effectively, (4) identify performance improvement opportunities, and (5) recognize limits. A second rater assessed 10% of encounters. Scores and variances for each domain, each scenario, and the total were compared. Low domain ratings (1, 2) were examined in detail. Interrater agreement was 0.76; reliability of the seven-scenario assessment was r = 0.70. CA-3s had a significantly higher average total score (4.9 ± 1.1 vs. 4.6 ± 1.1, P = 0.01, effect size = 0.33). CA-3s significantly outscored CA-1s for five of seven scenarios and domains 1, 2, and 3. CA-1s had a significantly higher proportion of worrisome ratings than CA-3s (chi-square = 24.1, P < 0.01, effect size = 1.50). Ninety-eight percent of residents rated the simulations more educational than an average day in the operating room. Sensitivity of the assessment to CA-1 versus CA-3 performance differences for most scenarios and domains supports validity. No differences, by experience level, were detected for two domains associated with reflective practice. Smaller score variances for CA-3s likely reflect a training effect; however, worrisome performance scores for both CA-1s and CA-3s suggest room for improvement.

Reliability-based trajectory optimization using nonintrusive polynomial chaos for Mars entry mission

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yuechen; Li, Haiyang

2018-06-01

This paper presents the reliability-based sequential optimization (RBSO) method to settle the trajectory optimization problem with parametric uncertainties in entry dynamics for Mars entry mission. First, the deterministic entry trajectory optimization model is reviewed, and then the reliability-based optimization model is formulated. In addition, the modified sequential optimization method, in which the nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method and the most probable point (MPP) searching method are employed, is proposed to solve the reliability-based optimization problem efficiently. The nonintrusive PCE method contributes to the transformation between the stochastic optimization (SO) and the deterministic optimization (DO) and to the approximation of trajectory solution efficiently. The MPP method, which is used for assessing the reliability of constraints satisfaction only up to the necessary level, is employed to further improve the computational efficiency. The cycle including SO, reliability assessment and constraints update is repeated in the RBSO until the reliability requirements of constraints satisfaction are satisfied. Finally, the RBSO is compared with the traditional DO and the traditional sequential optimization based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in a specific Mars entry mission to demonstrate the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed method.

Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baoyu LI

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis, and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain. However, efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved. The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation, whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs. While in fact, structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering, thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method, and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT technique to compute the fractional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations, which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs. The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations. Besides, the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis, which is determined by UT, is really small. Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.

An overview of reliability methods in mechanical and structural design

Science.gov (United States)

Wirsching, P. H.; Ortiz, K.; Lee, S. J.

1987-01-01

An evaluation is made of modern methods of fast probability integration and Monte Carlo treatment for the assessment of structural systems' and components' reliability. Fast probability integration methods are noted to be more efficient than Monte Carlo ones. This is judged to be an important consideration when several point probability estimates must be made in order to construct a distribution function. An example illustrating the relative efficiency of the various methods is included.

Reliability of decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ionescu, Tudor B.

2013-08-15

Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safetycritical software systems, such as embedded software currently being used in vehicles and aircraft. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the design by diversity principle for improving the reliability of codes and the trustworthiness of results as well as on a flexible fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm for ensuring the maximum availability of the system. The author's contribution is represented by (i) an acceptance test for dispersion simulation results, (ii) an adjudication algorithm (voter) based on comparing taxonomies of dispersion simulation results, and (iii) a feedback-control based fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm. These tools provide means for the continuous verification of dispersion simulation codes while tolerating timing faults caused by disturbances in the underlying computational environment and will thus help increase the reliability and trustworthiness of DSNE systems in missioncritical

Reliability of decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionescu, Tudor B.

2013-08-01

Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safetycritical software systems, such as embedded software currently being used in vehicles and aircraft. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the design by diversity principle for improving the reliability of codes and the trustworthiness of results as well as on a flexible fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm for ensuring the maximum availability of the system. The author's contribution is represented by (i) an acceptance test for dispersion simulation results, (ii) an adjudication algorithm (voter) based on comparing taxonomies of dispersion simulation results, and (iii) a feedback-control based fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm. These tools provide means for the continuous verification of dispersion simulation codes while tolerating timing faults caused by disturbances in the underlying computational environment and will thus help increase the reliability and trustworthiness of DSNE systems in missioncritical

Reliability and Validity of the Footprint Assessment Method Using Photoshop CS5 Software.

Science.gov (United States)

Gutiérrez-Vilahú, Lourdes; Massó-Ortigosa, Núria; Costa-Tutusaus, Lluís; Guerra-Balic, Myriam

2015-05-01

Several sophisticated methods of footprint analysis currently exist. However, it is sometimes useful to apply standard measurement methods of recognized evidence with an easy and quick application. We sought to assess the reliability and validity of a new method of footprint assessment in a healthy population using Photoshop CS5 software (Adobe Systems Inc, San Jose, California). Forty-two footprints, corresponding to 21 healthy individuals (11 men with a mean ± SD age of 20.45 ± 2.16 years and 10 women with a mean ± SD age of 20.00 ± 1.70 years) were analyzed. Footprints were recorded in static bipedal standing position using optical podography and digital photography. Three trials for each participant were performed. The Hernández-Corvo, Chippaux-Smirak, and Staheli indices and the Clarke angle were calculated by manual method and by computerized method using Photoshop CS5 software. Test-retest was used to determine reliability. Validity was obtained by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The reliability test for all of the indices showed high values (ICC, 0.98-0.99). Moreover, the validity test clearly showed no difference between techniques (ICC, 0.99-1). The reliability and validity of a method to measure, assess, and record the podometric indices using Photoshop CS5 software has been demonstrated. This provides a quick and accurate tool useful for the digital recording of morphostatic foot study parameters and their control.

The reliability and validity of a soccer-specific nonmotorised treadmill simulation (intermittent soccer performance test).

Science.gov (United States)

Aldous, Jeffrey W F; Akubat, Ibrahim; Chrismas, Bryna C R; Watkins, Samuel L; Mauger, Alexis R; Midgley, Adrian W; Abt, Grant; Taylor, Lee

2014-07-01

This study investigated the reliability and validity of a novel nonmotorised treadmill (NMT)-based soccer simulation using a novel activity category called a "variable run" to quantify fatigue during high-speed running. Twelve male University soccer players completed 3 familiarization sessions and 1 peak speed assessment before completing the intermittent soccer performance test (iSPT) twice. The 2 iSPTs were separated by 6-10 days. The total distance, sprint distance, and high-speed running distance (HSD) were 8,968 ± 430 m, 980 ± 75 m and 2,122 ± 140 m, respectively. No significant difference (p > 0.05) was found between repeated trials of the iSPT for all physiological and performance variables. Reliability measures between iSPT1 and iSPT2 showed good agreement (coefficient of variation: 0.80). Furthermore, the variable run phase showed HSD significantly decreased (p ≤ 0.05) in the last 15 minutes (89 ± 6 m) compared with the first 15 minutes (85 ± 7 m), quantifying decrements in high-speed exercise compared with the previous literature. This study validates the iSPT as a NMT-based soccer simulation compared with the previous match-play data and is a reliable tool for assessing and monitoring physiological and performance variables in soccer players. The iSPT could be used in a number of ways including player rehabilitation, understanding the efficacy of nutritional interventions, and also the quantification of environmentally mediated decrements on soccer-specific performance.

Time-history simulation of civil architecture earthquake disaster relief- based on the three-dimensional dynamic finite element method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Bing

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Earthquake action is the main external factor which influences long-term safe operation of civil construction, especially of the high-rise building. Applying time-history method to simulate earthquake response process of civil construction foundation surrounding rock is an effective method for the anti-knock study of civil buildings. Therefore, this paper develops a civil building earthquake disaster three-dimensional dynamic finite element numerical simulation system. The system adopts the explicit central difference method. Strengthening characteristics of materials under high strain rate and damage characteristics of surrounding rock under the action of cyclic loading are considered. Then, dynamic constitutive model of rock mass suitable for civil building aseismic analysis is put forward. At the same time, through the earthquake disaster of time-history simulation of Shenzhen Children’s Palace, reliability and practicability of system program is verified in the analysis of practical engineering problems.

Simulation techniques for determining reliability and availability of technical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindauer, E.

1975-01-01

The system is described in the form of a fault tree with components representing part functions of the system and connections which reproduce the logical structure of the system. Both have the states intact or failed, they are defined here as in the programme FESIVAR of the IRS. For the simulation of components corresponding to the given probabilities, pseudo-random numbers are applied; these are numbers whose sequence is determined by the producing algorithm, but which for the given purpose sufficiently exhibit the behaviour of randomly successive numbers. This method of simulation is compared with deterministic methods. (HP/LH) [de

A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Bent; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl; Andersen, Pernille

2009-01-01

: The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability...... comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0.79 and 0.74 are obtained using our and the compared method, respectively. This tendency is true for any selected subset....

Study on reliability analysis based on multilevel flow models and fault tree method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Qiang; Yang Ming

2014-01-01

Multilevel flow models (MFM) and fault tree method describe the system knowledge in different forms, so the two methods express an equivalent logic of the system reliability under the same boundary conditions and assumptions. Based on this and combined with the characteristics of MFM, a method mapping MFM to fault tree was put forward, thus providing a way to establish fault tree rapidly and realizing qualitative reliability analysis based on MFM. Taking the safety injection system of pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant as an example, its MFM was established and its reliability was analyzed qualitatively. The analysis result shows that the logic of mapping MFM to fault tree is correct. The MFM is easily understood, created and modified. Compared with the traditional fault tree analysis, the workload is greatly reduced and the modeling time is saved. (authors)

Simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gould, Derek A; Chalmers, Nicholas; Johnson, Sheena J

2012-01-01

Recognition of the many limitations of traditional apprenticeship training is driving new approaches to learning medical procedural skills. Among simulation technologies and methods available today, computer-based systems are topical and bring the benefits of automated, repeatable, and reliable p...... performance assessments. Human factors research is central to simulator model development that is relevant to real-world imaging-guided interventional tasks and to the credentialing programs in which it would be used....

Application of the Hybrid Simulation Method for the Full-Scale Precast Reinforced Concrete Shear Wall Structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zaixian Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The hybrid simulation (HS testing method combines physical test and numerical simulation, and provides a viable alternative to evaluate the structural seismic performance. Most studies focused on the accuracy, stability and reliability of the HS method in the small-scale tests. It is a challenge to evaluate the seismic performance of a twelve-story pre-cast reinforced concrete shear-wall structure using this HS method which takes the full-scale bottom three-story structural model as the physical substructure and the elastic non-linear model as the numerical substructure. This paper employs an equivalent force control (EFC method with implicit integration algorithm to deal with the numerical integration of the equation of motion (EOM and the control of the loading device. Because of the arrangement of the test model, an elastic non-linear numerical model is used to simulate the numerical substructure. And non-subdivision strategy for the displacement inflection point of numerical substructure is used to easily realize the simulation of the numerical substructure and thus reduce the measured error. The parameters of the EFC method are calculated basing on analytical and numerical studies and used to the actual full-scale HS test. Finally, the accuracy and feasibility of the EFC-based HS method is verified experimentally through the substructure HS tests of the pre-cast reinforced concrete shear-wall structure model. And the testing results of the descending stage can be conveniently obtained from the EFC-based HS method.

New methods in plasma simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mason, R.J.

1990-01-01

The development of implicit methods of particle-in-cell (PIC) computer simulation in recent years, and their merger with older hybrid methods have created a new arsenal of simulation techniques for the treatment of complex practical problems in plasma physics. The new implicit hybrid codes are aimed at transitional problems that lie somewhere between the long time scale, high density regime associated with MHD modeling, and the short time scale, low density regime appropriate to PIC particle-in-cell techniques. This transitional regime arises in ICF coronal plasmas, in pulsed power plasma switches, in Z-pinches, and in foil implosions. Here, we outline how such a merger of implicit and hybrid methods has been carried out, specifically in the ANTHEM computer code, and demonstrate the utility of implicit hybrid simulation in applications. 25 refs., 5 figs

Cellular scanning strategy for selective laser melting: Generating reliable, optimized scanning paths and processing parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mohanty, Sankhya; Hattel, Jesper Henri

2015-01-01

method based uncertainty and reliability analysis. The reliability of the scanning paths are established using cumulative probability distribution functions for process output criteria such as sample density, thermal homogeneity, etc. A customized genetic algorithm is used along with the simulation model...

Statistical estimation Monte Carlo for unreliability evaluation of highly reliable system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao Gang; Su Guanghui; Jia Dounan; Li Tianduo

2000-01-01

Based on analog Monte Carlo simulation, statistical Monte Carlo methods for unreliable evaluation of highly reliable system are constructed, including direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo method and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo method. The basal element is given, and the statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimators are derived. Direct Monte Carlo simulation method, bounding-sampling method, forced transitions Monte Carlo method, direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo are used to evaluate unreliability of a same system. By comparing, weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimator has smallest variance, and has highest calculating efficiency

A dynamic particle filter-support vector regression method for reliability prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Zhao; Tao, Tao; ZhuoShu, Ding; Zio, Enrico

2013-01-01

Support vector regression (SVR) has been applied to time series prediction and some works have demonstrated the feasibility of its use to forecast system reliability. For accuracy of reliability forecasting, the selection of SVR's parameters is important. The existing research works on SVR's parameters selection divide the example dataset into training and test subsets, and tune the parameters on the training data. However, these fixed parameters can lead to poor prediction capabilities if the data of the test subset differ significantly from those of training. Differently, the novel method proposed in this paper uses particle filtering to estimate the SVR model parameters according to the whole measurement sequence up to the last observation instance. By treating the SVR training model as the observation equation of a particle filter, our method allows updating the SVR model parameters dynamically when a new observation comes. Because of the adaptability of the parameters to dynamic data pattern, the new PF–SVR method has superior prediction performance over that of standard SVR. Four application results show that PF–SVR is more robust than SVR to the decrease of the number of training data and the change of initial SVR parameter values. Also, even if there are trends in the test data different from those in the training data, the method can capture the changes, correct the SVR parameters and obtain good predictions. -- Highlights: •A dynamic PF–SVR method is proposed to predict the system reliability. •The method can adjust the SVR parameters according to the change of data. •The method is robust to the size of training data and initial parameter values. •Some cases based on both artificial and real data are studied. •PF–SVR shows superior prediction performance over standard SVR

Reliability analysis with the simulator S.ESCAF of a very complex sequential system: the electrical power supply system of a nuclear reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blot, M.

1987-06-01

The reliability analysis of complex sequential systems, in which the order of arrival of the events must be taken into account, can be very difficult, because the use of the classical modelling technique of Markov diagrams leads to an important limitation on the number of components which can be handled. The desk-top apparatus S.ESCAF, which electronically simulates very closely the behaviour of the system being studied, and is very easy to use, even by a non specialist in electronics, allows one to avoid these inconveniences and to enlarge considerably the analysis possibilities. This paper shows the application of the S.ESCAF method to the electrical power supply system of a nuclear reactor. This system requires the simulation of more than forty components with about sixty events such as failure, repair and refusal to start. A comparison of times necessary to perform the analysis by these means and by other methods is described, and the advantages of S.ESCAF are presented

Methods to compute reliabilities for genomic predictions of feed intake

Science.gov (United States)

For new traits without historical reference data, cross-validation is often the preferred method to validate reliability (REL). Time truncation is less useful because few animals gain substantial REL after the truncation point. Accurate cross-validation requires separating genomic gain from pedigree...

A new modular procedure for industrial plant simulations and its reliable implementation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carcasci, C.; Marini, L.; Morini, B.; Porcelli, M.

2016-01-01

Modeling of industrial plants, and especially energy systems, has become increasingly important in industrial engineering and the need for accurate information on their behavior has grown along with the complexity of the industrial processes. Consequently, accurate and flexible simulation tools became essential yielding the development of modular codes. The aim of this work is to propose a new modular mathematical modeling for industrial plant simulation and its reliable numerical implementation. Regardless of their layout, a large class of plant's configurations is modeled by a library of elementary parts; then the physical properties, compositions of the working fluid, and plant's performance are estimated. Each plant component is represented by equations modeling fundamental mechanical and thermodynamic laws and giving rise to a system of algebraic nonlinear equations; remarkably, suitable restrictions on the variables of such nonlinear equations are imposed to guarantee solutions of physical meaning. The proposed numerical procedure combines an outer iterative process which refines plants characteristic parameters and an inner one which solves the arising nonlinear systems and consists of a trust-region solver for bound-constrained nonlinear equalities. The new procedure has been validated performing simulations against an existing modular tool on two compression train arrangements with both series and parallel-mounted compressors. - Highlights: • A numerical modular tool for industrial plants simulation is presented. • Mathematical modeling is thoroughly described. • Solution of the nonlinear system is performed by a trust-region Gauss–Newton solver. • A detailed explanation of the optimization solver named TRESNEI is provided. • Code flexibility and robustness are investigated through numerical simulations.

Verification of practicability of quantitative reliability evaluation method (De-BDA) in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takahashi, Kinshiro; Yukimachi, Takeo.

1988-01-01

A variety of methods have been applied to study of reliability analysis in which human factors are included in order to enhance the safety and availability of nuclear power plants. De-BDA (Detailed Block Diagram Analysis) is one of such mehtods developed with the objective of creating a more comprehensive and understandable tool for quantitative analysis of reliability associated with plant operations. The practicability of this method has been verified by applying it to reliability analysis of various phases of plant operation as well as evaluation of enhanced man-machine interface in the central control room. (author)

Reliability-based decision making for selection of ready-mix concrete supply using stochastic superiority and inferiority ranking method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chou, Jui-Sheng; Ongkowijoyo, Citra Satria

2015-01-01

Corporate competitiveness is heavily influenced by the information acquired, processed, utilized and transferred by professional staff involved in the supply chain. This paper develops a decision aid for selecting on-site ready-mix concrete (RMC) unloading type in decision making situations involving multiple stakeholders and evaluation criteria. The uncertainty of criteria weights set by expert judgment can be transformed in random ways based on the probabilistic virtual-scale method within a prioritization matrix. The ranking is performed by grey relational grade systems considering stochastic criteria weight based on individual preference. Application of the decision aiding model in actual RMC case confirms that the method provides a robust and effective tool for facilitating decision making under uncertainty. - Highlights: • This study models decision aiding method to assess ready-mix concrete unloading type. • Applying Monte Carlo simulation to virtual-scale method achieves a reliable process. • Individual preference ranking method enhances the quality of global decision making. • Robust stochastic superiority and inferiority ranking obtains reasonable results

Human Performance Modeling for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory; Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Laboratory

2015-08-01

Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reac- tor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Charac- terization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk framework. In this paper, we review simulation based and non simulation based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper summarizes the founda- tional information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human in- teractions in RISMC simulations.

A method of bias correction for maximal reliability with dichotomous measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Penev, Spiridon; Raykov, Tenko

2010-02-01

This paper is concerned with the reliability of weighted combinations of a given set of dichotomous measures. Maximal reliability for such measures has been discussed in the past, but the pertinent estimator exhibits a considerable bias and mean squared error for moderate sample sizes. We examine this bias, propose a procedure for bias correction, and develop a more accurate asymptotic confidence interval for the resulting estimator. In most empirically relevant cases, the bias correction and mean squared error correction can be performed simultaneously. We propose an approximate (asymptotic) confidence interval for the maximal reliability coefficient, discuss the implementation of this estimator, and investigate the mean squared error of the associated asymptotic approximation. We illustrate the proposed methods using a numerical example.

Collaborative simulation method with spatiotemporal synchronization process control

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Yisheng; Ding, Guofu; Zhang, Weihua; Zhang, Jian; Qin, Shengfeng; Tan, John Kian

2016-10-01

When designing a complex mechatronics system, such as high speed trains, it is relatively difficult to effectively simulate the entire system's dynamic behaviors because it involves multi-disciplinary subsystems. Currently,a most practical approach for multi-disciplinary simulation is interface based coupling simulation method, but it faces a twofold challenge: spatial and time unsynchronizations among multi-directional coupling simulation of subsystems. A new collaborative simulation method with spatiotemporal synchronization process control is proposed for coupling simulating a given complex mechatronics system across multiple subsystems on different platforms. The method consists of 1) a coupler-based coupling mechanisms to define the interfacing and interaction mechanisms among subsystems, and 2) a simulation process control algorithm to realize the coupling simulation in a spatiotemporal synchronized manner. The test results from a case study show that the proposed method 1) can certainly be used to simulate the sub-systems interactions under different simulation conditions in an engineering system, and 2) effectively supports multi-directional coupling simulation among multi-disciplinary subsystems. This method has been successfully applied in China high speed train design and development processes, demonstrating that it can be applied in a wide range of engineering systems design and simulation with improved efficiency and effectiveness.

Reliability of structures by using probability and fatigue theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ouk Sub; Kim, Dong Hyeok; Park, Yeon Chang

2008-01-01

Methodologies to calculate failure probability and to estimate the reliability of fatigue loaded structures are developed. The applicability of the methodologies is evaluated with the help of the fatigue crack growth models suggested by Paris and Walker. The probability theories such as the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the MCS (Monte Carlo simulation) are utilized. It is found that the failure probability decreases with the increase of the design fatigue life and the applied minimum stress, the decrease of the initial edge crack size, the applied maximum stress and the slope of Paris equation. Furthermore, according to the sensitivity analysis of random variables, the slope of Pairs equation affects the failure probability dominantly among other random variables in the Paris and the Walker models

A consistent modelling methodology for secondary settling tanks: a reliable numerical method.

Science.gov (United States)

Bürger, Raimund; Diehl, Stefan; Farås, Sebastian; Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena

2013-01-01

The consistent modelling methodology for secondary settling tanks (SSTs) leads to a partial differential equation (PDE) of nonlinear convection-diffusion type as a one-dimensional model for the solids concentration as a function of depth and time. This PDE includes a flux that depends discontinuously on spatial position modelling hindered settling and bulk flows, a singular source term describing the feed mechanism, a degenerating term accounting for sediment compressibility, and a dispersion term for turbulence. In addition, the solution itself is discontinuous. A consistent, reliable and robust numerical method that properly handles these difficulties is presented. Many constitutive relations for hindered settling, compression and dispersion can be used within the model, allowing the user to switch on and off effects of interest depending on the modelling goal as well as investigate the suitability of certain constitutive expressions. Simulations show the effect of the dispersion term on effluent suspended solids and total sludge mass in the SST. The focus is on correct implementation whereas calibration and validation are not pursued.

Foundations for a time reliability correlation system to quantify human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, E.M. Jr.; Fragola, J.R.

1988-01-01

Time reliability correlations (TRCs) have been used in human reliability analysis (HRA) in conjunction with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify post-initiator human failure events. The first TRCs were judgmental but recent data taken from simulators have provided evidence for development of a system of TRCs. This system has the equational form: t = tau R X tau U , where the first factor is the lognormally distributed random variable of successful response time, derived from the simulator data, and the second factor is a unitary lognormal random variable to account for uncertainty in the model. The first random variable is further factored into a median response time and a factor to account for the dominant type of behavior assumed to be involved in the response and a second factor to account for other influences on the reliability of the response

Towards improving the reliability of future regional climate projections: A bias-correction method applied to precipitation over the west coast of Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Valved, A.; Barstad, I.; Sobolowski, S.

2012-04-01

The early winter of 2011/2012 in the city of Bergen, located on the west coast of Norway, was dominated by warm, wet and extreme weather. This might be a glimpse of future average climate conditions under continued atmospheric warming and an enhanced hydrological cycle. The extreme weather events have resulted in drainage/sewage problems, landslides, flooding property damage and even death. As the Municipality plans for the future they must contend with a growing population in a geographically complex area in addition to any effects attributable to climate change. While the scientific community is increasingly confident in the projections of large scale changes over the mid - high latitudes this confidence does not extend to the local - regional scale where the magnitude and even direction of change may be highly uncertain. Meanwhile it is precisely these scales that Municipalities such as Bergen require information if they are to plan effectively. Thus, there is a need for reliable, local climate projections, which can aid policy makers and planners in decision-making. Current state of the art regional climate models are capable of providing detailed simulations on the order of 1 or 10km. However, due to the increased computational demands of these simulations, large ensembles, such as those used for GCM experiments, are often not possible. Thus, greater detail, under these circumstances, does not necessarily correspond to greater reliability. One way to deal with this issue is to apply a statistical bias correction method where model results are fitted to observationally derived probability density functions (pdfs). In this way, a full distribution of potential changes may be generated which are constrained by known, observed data.This will result in a shifted model distribution with mean and spread that more closely follows observations. In short, the method temporarily removes the climate signals from the model run working on the different percentiles, fits the

Real-time tumor ablation simulation based on the dynamic mode decomposition method

KAUST Repository

Bourantas, George C.

2014-05-01

Purpose: The dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) method is used to provide a reliable forecasting of tumor ablation treatment simulation in real time, which is quite needed in medical practice. To achieve this, an extended Pennes bioheat model must be employed, taking into account both the water evaporation phenomenon and the tissue damage during tumor ablation. Methods: A meshless point collocation solver is used for the numerical solution of the governing equations. The results obtained are used by the DMD method for forecasting the numerical solution faster than the meshless solver. The procedure is first validated against analytical and numerical predictions for simple problems. The DMD method is then applied to three-dimensional simulations that involve modeling of tumor ablation and account for metabolic heat generation, blood perfusion, and heat ablation using realistic values for the various parameters. Results: The present method offers very fast numerical solution to bioheat transfer, which is of clinical significance in medical practice. It also sidesteps the mathematical treatment of boundaries between tumor and healthy tissue, which is usually a tedious procedure with some inevitable degree of approximation. The DMD method provides excellent predictions of the temperature profile in tumors and in the healthy parts of the tissue, for linear and nonlinear thermal properties of the tissue. Conclusions: The low computational cost renders the use of DMD suitable forin situ real time tumor ablation simulations without sacrificing accuracy. In such a way, the tumor ablation treatment planning is feasible using just a personal computer thanks to the simplicity of the numerical procedure used. The geometrical data can be provided directly by medical image modalities used in everyday practice. © 2014 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Simulation of Rossi-α method with analog Monte-Carlo method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu Yuzhao; Xie Qilin; Song Lingli; Liu Hangang

2012-01-01

The analog Monte-Carlo code for simulating Rossi-α method based on Geant4 was developed. The prompt neutron decay constant α of six metal uranium configurations in Oak Ridge National Laboratory were calculated. α was also calculated by Burst-Neutron method and the result was consistent with the result of Rossi-α method. There is the difference between results of analog Monte-Carlo simulation and experiment, and the reasons for the difference is the gaps between uranium layers. The influence of gaps decrease as the sub-criticality deepens. The relative difference between results of analog Monte-Carlo simulation and experiment changes from 19% to 0.19%. (authors)

A New Method of Reliability Evaluation Based on Wavelet Information Entropy for Equipment Condition Identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Z J; Zhang, X L; Chen, X F

2012-01-01

Aiming at reliability evaluation of condition identification of mechanical equipment, it is necessary to analyze condition monitoring information. A new method of reliability evaluation based on wavelet information entropy extracted from vibration signals of mechanical equipment is proposed. The method is quite different from traditional reliability evaluation models that are dependent on probability statistics analysis of large number sample data. The vibration signals of mechanical equipment were analyzed by means of second generation wavelet package (SGWP). We take relative energy in each frequency band of decomposed signal that equals a percentage of the whole signal energy as probability. Normalized information entropy (IE) is obtained based on the relative energy to describe uncertainty of a system instead of probability. The reliability degree is transformed by the normalized wavelet information entropy. A successful application has been achieved to evaluate the assembled quality reliability for a kind of dismountable disk-drum aero-engine. The reliability degree indicates the assembled quality satisfactorily.

Reliability Assessment of IGBT Modules Modeled as Systems with Correlated Components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2013-01-01

configuration. The estimated system reliability by the proposed method is a conservative estimate. Application of the suggested method could be extended for reliability estimation of systems composing of welding joints, bolts, bearings, etc. The reliability model incorporates the correlation between...... was applied for the systems failure functions estimation. It is desired to compare the results with the true system failure function, which is possible to estimate using simulation techniques. Theoretical model development should be applied for the further research. One of the directions for it might...... be modeling the system based on the Sequential Order Statistics, by considering the failure of the minimum (weakest component) at each loading level. The proposed idea to represent the system by the independent components could also be used for modeling reliability by Sequential Order Statistics....

LIF: A new Kriging based learning function and its application to structural reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Zhili; Wang, Jian; Li, Rui; Tong, Cao

2017-01-01

The main task of structural reliability analysis is to estimate failure probability of a studied structure taking randomness of input variables into account. To consider structural behavior practically, numerical models become more and more complicated and time-consuming, which increases the difficulty of reliability analysis. Therefore, sequential strategies of design of experiment (DoE) are raised. In this research, a new learning function, named least improvement function (LIF), is proposed to update DoE of Kriging based reliability analysis method. LIF values how much the accuracy of estimated failure probability will be improved if adding a given point into DoE. It takes both statistical information provided by the Kriging model and the joint probability density function of input variables into account, which is the most important difference from the existing learning functions. Maximum point of LIF is approximately determined with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) simulation. A new reliability analysis method is developed based on the Kriging model, in which LIF, MCMC and Monte Carlo(MC) simulation are employed. Three examples are analyzed. Results show that LIF and the new method proposed in this research are very efficient when dealing with nonlinear performance function, small probability, complicated limit state and engineering problems with high dimension. - Highlights: • Least improvement function (LIF) is proposed for structural reliability analysis. • LIF takes both Kriging based statistical information and joint PDF into account. • A reliability analysis method is constructed based on Kriging, MCS and LIF.

Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chou, Jui-Sheng; Le, Thanh-Son

2011-01-01

Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: →A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. → Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. → A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. → The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chou, Jui-Sheng, E-mail: jschou@mail.ntust.edu.tw [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Le, Thanh-Son [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)

2011-10-15

Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: > A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. > Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. > A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. > The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

Creation and Delphi-method refinement of pediatric disaster triage simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cicero, Mark X; Brown, Linda; Overly, Frank; Yarzebski, Jorge; Meckler, Garth; Fuchs, Susan; Tomassoni, Anthony; Aghababian, Richard; Chung, Sarita; Garrett, Andrew; Fagbuyi, Daniel; Adelgais, Kathleen; Goldman, Ran; Parker, James; Auerbach, Marc; Riera, Antonio; Cone, David; Baum, Carl R

2014-01-01

There is a need for rigorously designed pediatric disaster triage (PDT) training simulations for paramedics. First, we sought to design three multiple patient incidents for EMS provider training simulations. Our second objective was to determine the appropriate interventions and triage level for each victim in each of the simulations and develop evaluation instruments for each simulation. The final objective was to ensure that each simulation and evaluation tool was free of bias toward any specific PDT strategy. We created mixed-methods disaster simulation scenarios with pediatric victims: a school shooting, a school bus crash, and a multiple-victim house fire. Standardized patients, high-fidelity manikins, and low-fidelity manikins were used to portray the victims. Each simulation had similar acuity of injuries and 10 victims. Examples include children with special health-care needs, gunshot wounds, and smoke inhalation. Checklist-based evaluation tools and behaviorally anchored global assessments of function were created for each simulation. Eight physicians and paramedics from areas with differing PDT strategies were recruited as Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) for a modified Delphi iterative critique of the simulations and evaluation tools. The modified Delphi was managed with an online survey tool. The SMEs provided an expected triage category for each patient. The target for modified Delphi consensus was ≥85%. Using Likert scales and free text, the SMEs assessed the validity of the simulations, including instances of bias toward a specific PDT strategy, clarity of learning objectives, and the correlation of the evaluation tools to the learning objectives and scenarios. After two rounds of the modified Delphi, consensus for expected triage level was >85% for 28 of 30 victims, with the remaining two achieving >85% consensus after three Delphi iterations. To achieve consensus, we amended 11 instances of bias toward a specific PDT strategy and corrected 10

A Comparison of Three Methods for the Analysis of Skin Flap Viability: Reliability and Validity.

Science.gov (United States)

Tim, Carla Roberta; Martignago, Cintia Cristina Santi; da Silva, Viviane Ribeiro; Dos Santos, Estefany Camila Bonfim; Vieira, Fabiana Nascimento; Parizotto, Nivaldo Antonio; Liebano, Richard Eloin

2018-05-01

Objective: Technological advances have provided new alternatives to the analysis of skin flap viability in animal models; however, the interrater validity and reliability of these techniques have yet to be analyzed. The present study aimed to evaluate the interrater validity and reliability of three different methods: weight of paper template (WPT), paper template area (PTA), and photographic analysis. Approach: Sixteen male Wistar rats had their cranially based dorsal skin flap elevated. On the seventh postoperative day, the viable tissue area and the necrotic area of the skin flap were recorded using the paper template method and photo image. The evaluation of the percentage of viable tissue was performed using three methods, simultaneously and independently by two raters. The analysis of interrater reliability and viability was performed using the intraclass correlation coefficient and Bland Altman Plot Analysis was used to visualize the presence or absence of systematic bias in the evaluations of data validity. Results: The results showed that interrater reliability for WPT, measurement of PTA, and photographic analysis were 0.995, 0.990, and 0.982, respectively. For data validity, a correlation >0.90 was observed for all comparisons made between the three methods. In addition, Bland Altman Plot Analysis showed agreement between the comparisons of the methods and the presence of systematic bias was not observed. Innovation: Digital methods are an excellent choice for assessing skin flap viability; moreover, they make data use and storage easier. Conclusion: Independently from the method used, the interrater reliability and validity proved to be excellent for the analysis of skin flaps' viability.

Modeling and simulation of a controlled steam generator in the context of dynamic reliability using a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Babykina, Génia; Brînzei, Nicolae; Aubry, Jean-François; Deleuze, Gilles

2016-01-01

The paper proposes a modeling framework to support Monte Carlo simulations of the behavior of a complex industrial system. The aim is to analyze the system dependability in the presence of random events, described by any type of probability distributions. Continuous dynamic evolutions of physical parameters are taken into account by a system of differential equations. Dynamic reliability is chosen as theoretical framework. Based on finite state automata theory, the formal model is built by parallel composition of elementary sub-models using a bottom-up approach. Considerations of a stochastic nature lead to a model called the Stochastic Hybrid Automaton. The Scilab/Scicos open source environment is used for implementation. The case study is carried out on an example of a steam generator of a nuclear power plant. The behavior of the system is studied by exploring its trajectories. Possible system trajectories are analyzed both empirically, using the results of Monte Carlo simulations, and analytically, using the formal system model. The obtained results are show to be relevant. The Stochastic Hybrid Automaton appears to be a suitable tool to address the dynamic reliability problem and to model real systems of high complexity; the bottom-up design provides precision and coherency of the system model. - Highlights: • A part of a nuclear power plant is modeled in the context of dynamic reliability. • Stochastic Hybrid Automaton is used as an input model for Monte Carlo simulations. • The model is formally built using a bottom-up approach. • The behavior of the system is analyzed empirically and analytically. • A formally built SHA shows to be a suitable tool to approach dynamic reliability.

Matrix-based system reliability method and applications to bridge networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, W.-H.; Song Junho; Gardoni, Paolo

2008-01-01

Using a matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method, one can estimate the probabilities of complex system events by simple matrix calculations. Unlike existing system reliability methods whose complexity depends highly on that of the system event, the MSR method describes any general system event in a simple matrix form and therefore provides a more convenient way of handling the system event and estimating its probability. Even in the case where one has incomplete information on the component probabilities and/or the statistical dependence thereof, the matrix-based framework enables us to estimate the narrowest bounds on the system failure probability by linear programming. This paper presents the MSR method and applies it to a transportation network consisting of bridge structures. The seismic failure probabilities of bridges are estimated by use of the predictive fragility curves developed by a Bayesian methodology based on experimental data and existing deterministic models of the seismic capacity and demand. Using the MSR method, the probability of disconnection between each city/county and a critical facility is estimated. The probability mass function of the number of failed bridges is computed as well. In order to quantify the relative importance of bridges, the MSR method is used to compute the conditional probabilities of bridge failures given that there is at least one city disconnected from the critical facility. The bounds on the probability of disconnection are also obtained for cases with incomplete information

Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

2013-01-01

A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

Evaluation of mobile ad hoc network reliability using propagation-based link reliability model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Padmavathy, N.; Chaturvedi, Sanjay K.

2013-01-01

A wireless mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a collection of solely independent nodes (that can move randomly around the area of deployment) making the topology highly dynamic; nodes communicate with each other by forming a single hop/multi-hop network and maintain connectivity in decentralized manner. MANET is modelled using geometric random graphs rather than random graphs because the link existence in MANET is a function of the geometric distance between the nodes and the transmission range of the nodes. Among many factors that contribute to the MANET reliability, the reliability of these networks also depends on the robustness of the link between the mobile nodes of the network. Recently, the reliability of such networks has been evaluated for imperfect nodes (transceivers) with binary model of communication links based on the transmission range of the mobile nodes and the distance between them. However, in reality, the probability of successful communication decreases as the signal strength deteriorates due to noise, fading or interference effects even up to the nodes' transmission range. Hence, in this paper, using a propagation-based link reliability model rather than a binary-model with nodes following a known failure distribution to evaluate the network reliability (2TR m , ATR m and AoTR m ) of MANET through Monte Carlo Simulation is proposed. The method is illustrated with an application and some imperative results are also presented

Evaluating the reliability of multi-body mechanisms: A method considering the uncertainties of dynamic performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jianing; Yan, Shaoze; Zuo, Ming J.

2016-01-01

Mechanism reliability is defined as the ability of a certain mechanism to maintain output accuracy under specified conditions. Mechanism reliability is generally assessed by the classical direct probability method (DPM) derived from the first order second moment (FOSM) method. The DPM relies strongly on the analytical form of the dynamic solution so it is not applicable to multi-body mechanisms that have only numerical solutions. In this paper, an indirect probability model (IPM) is proposed for mechanism reliability evaluation of multi-body mechanisms. IPM combines the dynamic equation, degradation function and Kaplan–Meier estimator to evaluate mechanism reliability comprehensively. Furthermore, to reduce the amount of computation in practical applications, the IPM is simplified into the indirect probability step model (IPSM). A case study of a crank–slider mechanism with clearance is investigated. Results show that relative errors between the theoretical and experimental results of mechanism reliability are less than 5%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Highlights: • An indirect probability model (IPM) is proposed for mechanism reliability evaluation. • The dynamic equation, degradation function and Kaplan–Meier estimator are used. • Then the simplified form of indirect probability model is proposed. • The experimental results agree well with the predicted results.

Precision profiles and analytic reliability of radioimmunologic methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yaneva, Z.; Popova, Yu.

1991-01-01

The aim of the present study is to investigate and compare some methods for creation of 'precision profiles' (PP) and to clarify their possibilities for determining the analytical reliability of RIA. Only methods without complicated mathematical calculations has been used. The reproducibility in serums with a concentration of the determinable hormone in the whole range of the calibration curve has been studied. The radioimmunoassay has been performed with TSH-RIA set (ex East Germany), and comparative evaluations - with commercial sets of HOECHST (Germany) and AMERSHAM (GB). Three methods for obtaining the relationship concentration (IU/l) -reproducibility (C.V.,%) are used and a comparison is made of their corresponding profiles: preliminary rough profile, Rodbard-PP and Ekins-PP. It is concluded that the creation of a precision profile is obligatory and the method of its construction does not influence the relationship's course. PP allows to determine concentration range giving stable results which improves the efficiency of the analitical work. 16 refs., 4 figs

Reliability Study Regarding the Use of Histogram Similarity Methods for Damage Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta Gillich

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the reliability of three dissimilarity estimators to compare histograms, as support for a frequency-based damage detection method, able to identify structural changes in beam-like structures. First a brief presentation of the own developed damage detection method is made, with focus on damage localization. It consists actually in comparing a histogram derived from measurement results, with a large series of histograms, namely the damage location indexes for all locations along the beam, obtained by calculus. We tested some dissimilarity estimators like the Minkowski-form Distances, the Kullback-Leibler Divergence and the Histogram Intersection and found the Minkowski Distance as the method providing best results. It was tested for numerous locations, using real measurement results and with results artificially debased by noise, proving its reliability.

Methods for Monte Carlo simulations of biomacromolecules.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitalis, Andreas; Pappu, Rohit V

2009-01-01

The state-of-the-art for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of biomacromolecules is reviewed. Available methodologies for sampling conformational equilibria and associations of biomacromolecules in the canonical ensemble, given a continuum description of the solvent environment, are reviewed. Detailed sections are provided dealing with the choice of degrees of freedom, the efficiencies of MC algorithms and algorithmic peculiarities, as well as the optimization of simple movesets. The issue of introducing correlations into elementary MC moves, and the applicability of such methods to simulations of biomacromolecules is discussed. A brief discussion of multicanonical methods and an overview of recent simulation work highlighting the potential of MC methods are also provided. It is argued that MC simulations, while underutilized biomacromolecular simulation community, hold promise for simulations of complex systems and phenomena that span multiple length scales, especially when used in conjunction with implicit solvation models or other coarse graining strategies.

Reliability testing of tendon disease using two different scanning methods in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruyn, George A W; Möller, Ingrid; Garrido, Jesus

2012-01-01

To assess the intra- and interobserver reliability of musculoskeletal ultrasonography (US) in detecting inflammatory and destructive tendon abnormalities in patients with RA using two different scanning methods.......To assess the intra- and interobserver reliability of musculoskeletal ultrasonography (US) in detecting inflammatory and destructive tendon abnormalities in patients with RA using two different scanning methods....

A Systematic Review of Statistical Methods Used to Test for Reliability of Medical Instruments Measuring Continuous Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafdzah Zaki

2013-06-01

Full Text Available   Objective(s: Reliability measures precision or the extent to which test results can be replicated. This is the first ever systematic review to identify statistical methods used to measure reliability of equipment measuring continuous variables. This studyalso aims to highlight the inappropriate statistical method used in the reliability analysis and its implication in the medical practice.   Materials and Methods: In 2010, five electronic databases were searched between 2007 and 2009 to look for reliability studies. A total of 5,795 titles were initially identified. Only 282 titles were potentially related, and finally 42 fitted the inclusion criteria. Results: The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC is the most popular method with 25 (60% studies having used this method followed by the comparing means (8 or 19%. Out of 25 studies using the ICC, only 7 (28% reported the confidence intervals and types of ICC used. Most studies (71% also tested the agreement of instruments. Conclusion: This study finds that the Intra-class Correlation Coefficient is the most popular method used to assess the reliability of medical instruments measuring continuous outcomes. There are also inappropriate applications and interpretations of statistical methods in some studies. It is important for medical researchers to be aware of this issue, and be able to correctly perform analysis in reliability studies.

Determination of electron clinical spectra from percentage depth dose (PDD) curves by classical simulated annealing method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Visbal, Jorge H. Wilches; Costa, Alessandro M.

2016-01-01

Percentage depth dose of electron beams represents an important item of data in radiation therapy treatment since it describes the dosimetric properties of these. Using an accurate transport theory, or the Monte Carlo method, has been shown obvious differences between the dose distribution of electron beams of a clinical accelerator in a water simulator object and the dose distribution of monoenergetic electrons of nominal energy of the clinical accelerator in water. In radiotherapy, the electron spectra should be considered to improve the accuracy of dose calculation since the shape of PDP curve depends of way how radiation particles deposit their energy in patient/phantom, that is, the spectrum. Exist three principal approaches to obtain electron energy spectra from central PDP: Monte Carlo Method, Direct Measurement and Inverse Reconstruction. In this work it will be presented the Simulated Annealing method as a practical, reliable and simple approach of inverse reconstruction as being an optimal alternative to other options. (author)

Optimal Bi-Objective Redundancy Allocation for Systems Reliability and Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Govindan, Kannan; Jafarian, Ahmad; Azbari, Mostafa E.

2016-01-01

In the big data era, systems reliability is critical to effective systems risk management. In this paper, a novel multiobjective approach, with hybridization of a known algorithm called NSGA-II and an adaptive population-based simulated annealing (APBSA) method is developed to solve the systems...... of domination; and 4) data envelopment analysis. The computational studies have shown that the proposed algorithm is an effective approach for systems reliability and risk management....

Reliability Assessment for Low-cost Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Paul Michael

Existing low-cost unmanned aerospace systems are unreliable, and engineers must blend reliability analysis with fault-tolerant control in novel ways. This dissertation introduces the University of Minnesota unmanned aerial vehicle flight research platform, a comprehensive simulation and flight test facility for reliability and fault-tolerance research. An industry-standard reliability assessment technique, the failure modes and effects analysis, is performed for an unmanned aircraft. Particular attention is afforded to the control surface and servo-actuation subsystem. Maintaining effector health is essential for safe flight; failures may lead to loss of control incidents. Failure likelihood, severity, and risk are qualitatively assessed for several effector failure modes. Design changes are recommended to improve aircraft reliability based on this analysis. Most notably, the control surfaces are split, providing independent actuation and dual-redundancy. The simulation models for control surface aerodynamic effects are updated to reflect the split surfaces using a first-principles geometric analysis. The failure modes and effects analysis is extended by using a high-fidelity nonlinear aircraft simulation. A trim state discovery is performed to identify the achievable steady, wings-level flight envelope of the healthy and damaged vehicle. Tolerance of elevator actuator failures is studied using familiar tools from linear systems analysis. This analysis reveals significant inherent performance limitations for candidate adaptive/reconfigurable control algorithms used for the vehicle. Moreover, it demonstrates how these tools can be applied in a design feedback loop to make safety-critical unmanned systems more reliable. Control surface impairments that do occur must be quickly and accurately detected. This dissertation also considers fault detection and identification for an unmanned aerial vehicle using model-based and model-free approaches and applies those

Screening, sensitivity, and uncertainty for the CREAM method of Human Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bedford, Tim; Bayley, Clare; Revie, Matthew

2013-01-01

This paper reports a sensitivity analysis of the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method for Human Reliability Analysis. We consider three different aspects: the difference between the outputs of the Basic and Extended methods, on the same HRA scenario; the variability in outputs through the choices made for common performance conditions (CPCs); and the variability in outputs through the assignment of choices for cognitive function failures (CFFs). We discuss the problem of interpreting categories when applying the method, compare its quantitative structure to that of first generation methods and discuss also how dependence is modelled with the approach. We show that the control mode intervals used in the Basic method are too narrow to be consistent with the Extended method. This motivates a new screening method that gives improved accuracy with respect to the Basic method, in the sense that (on average) halves the uncertainty associated with the Basic method. We make some observations on the design of a screening method that are generally applicable in Risk Analysis. Finally, we propose a new method of combining CPC weights with nominal probabilities so that the calculated probabilities are always in range (i.e. between 0 and 1), while satisfying sensible properties that are consistent with the overall CREAM method

Assessment of reliability of Greulich and Pyle (gp) method for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Greulich and Pyle standards are the most widely used age estimation standards all over the world. The applicability of the Greulich and Pyle standards to populations which differ from their reference population is often questioned. This study aimed to assess the reliability of Greulich and Pyle (GP) method for ...

Proceeding of 35th domestic symposium on applications of structural reliability and risk assessment methods to nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-06-01

As the 35th domestic symposium of Atomic Energy Research Committee, the Japan Welding Engineering Society, the symposium was held titled as Applications of structural reliability/risk assessment methods to nuclear energy'. Six speakers gave lectures titled as 'Structural reliability and risk assessment methods', 'Risk-informed regulation of US nuclear energy and role of probabilistic risk assessment', 'Reliability and risk assessment methods in chemical plants', 'Practical structural design methods based on reliability in architectural and civil areas', 'Maintenance activities based on reliability in thermal power plants' and 'LWR maintenance strategies based on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics'. (T. Tanaka)

You Don't Need Richards'... A New General 1-D Vadose Zone Solution Method that is Reliable

Science.gov (United States)

Ogden, F. L.; Lai, W.; Zhu, J.; Steinke, R. C.; Talbot, C. A.

2015-12-01

Hydrologic modelers and mathematicians have strived to improve 1-D Richards' equation (RE) solution reliability for predicting vadose zone fluxes. Despite advances in computing power and the numerical solution of partial differential equations since Richards first published the RE in 1931, the solution remains unreliable. That is to say that there is no guarantee that for a particular set of soil constitutive relations, moisture profile conditions, or forcing input that a numerical RE solver will converge to an answer. This risk of non-convergence renders prohibitive the use of RE solvers in hydrological models that need perhaps millions of infiltration solutions. In lieu of using unreliable numerical RE solutions, researchers have developed a wide array of approximate solutions that more-or-less mimic the behavior of the RE, with some notable deficiencies such as parameter insensitivity or divergence over time. The improved Talbot-Ogden (T-O) finite water-content scheme was shown by Ogden et al. (2015) to be an extremely good approximation of the 1-D RE solution, with a difference in cumulative infiltration of only 0.2 percent over an 8 month simulation comparing the improved T-O scheme with a RE numerical solver. The reason is that the newly-derived fundamental flow equation that underpins the improved T-O method is equivalent to the RE minus a term that is equal to the diffusive flux divided by the slope of the wetting front. Because the diffusive flux has zero mean, this term is not important in calculating the mean flux. The wetting front slope is near infinite (sharp) in coarser soils that produce more significant hydrological interactions between surface and ground waters, which also makes this missing term 1) disappear in the limit, and, 2) create stability challenges for the numerical solution of RE. The improved T-O method is a replacement for the 1-D RE in soils that can be simulated as homogeneous layers, where the user is willing to neglect the effects

Cognitive environment simulation: An artificial intelligence system for human performance assessment: Cognitive reliability analysis technique: [Technical report, May 1986-June 1987

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, D.D.; Roth, E.M.

1987-11-01

This report documents the results of Phase II of a three phase research program to develop and validate improved methods to model the cognitive behavior of nuclear power plant (NPP) personnel. In Phase II a dynamic simulation capability for modeling how people form intentions to act in NPP emergency situations was developed based on techniques from artificial intelligence. This modeling tool, Cognitive Environment Simulation or CES, simulates the cognitive processes that determine situation assessment and intention formation. It can be used to investigate analytically what situations and factors lead to intention failures, what actions follow from intention failures (e.g., errors of omission, errors of commission, common mode errors), the ability to recover from errors or additional machine failures, and the effects of changes in the NPP person-machine system. The Cognitive Reliability Assessment Technique (or CREATE) was also developed in Phase II to specify how CES can be used to enhance the measurement of the human contribution to risk in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies. 34 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

Reliability of different mark-recapture methods for population size estimation tested against reference population sizes constructed from field data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annegret Grimm

Full Text Available Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK. If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2. Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to

Reliability calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, K.E.

1986-03-01

Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Gharouni-Nik, Morteza; Naeimi, Meysam; Ahadi, Sodayf; Alimoradi, Zahra

2014-06-01

In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute to stability of the tunnel structure are recognized owing to identify various aspects of reliability and sustainability in the system. The selection of efficient support methods for rock tunneling is a key factor in order to reduce the number of problems during construction and maintain the project cost and time within the limited budget and planned schedule. This paper introduces a smart approach by which decision-makers will be able to find the overall reliability of tunnel support system before selecting the final scheme of the lining system. Due to this research focus, engineering reliability which is a branch of statistics and probability is being appropriately applied to the field and much effort has been made to use it in tunneling while investigating the reliability of the lining support system for the tunnel structure. Therefore, reliability analysis for evaluating the tunnel support performance is the main idea used in this research. Decomposition approaches are used for producing system block diagram and determining the failure probability of the whole system. Effectiveness of the proposed reliability model of tunnel lining together with the recommended approaches is examined using several case studies and the final value of reliability obtained for different designing scenarios. Considering the idea of linear correlation between safety factors and reliability parameters, the values of isolated reliabilities determined for different structural components of tunnel support system. In order to determine individual safety factors, finite element modeling is employed for different structural subsystems and the results of numerical analyses are obtained in

Entropy in bimolecular simulations: A comprehensive review of atomic fluctuations-based methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Kassem, Summer; Ahmed, Marawan; El-Sheikh, Salah; Barakat, Khaled H

2015-11-01

Entropy of binding constitutes a major, and in many cases a detrimental, component of the binding affinity in biomolecular interactions. While the enthalpic part of the binding free energy is easier to calculate, estimating the entropy of binding is further more complicated. A precise evaluation of entropy requires a comprehensive exploration of the complete phase space of the interacting entities. As this task is extremely hard to accomplish in the context of conventional molecular simulations, calculating entropy has involved many approximations. Most of these golden standard methods focused on developing a reliable estimation of the conformational part of the entropy. Here, we review these methods with a particular emphasis on the different techniques that extract entropy from atomic fluctuations. The theoretical formalisms behind each method is explained highlighting its strengths as well as its limitations, followed by a description of a number of case studies for each method. We hope that this brief, yet comprehensive, review provides a useful tool to understand these methods and realize the practical issues that may arise in such calculations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A simple reliability block diagram method for safety integrity verification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Haitao; Yang Xianhui

2007-01-01

IEC 61508 requires safety integrity verification for safety related systems to be a necessary procedure in safety life cycle. PFD avg must be calculated to verify the safety integrity level (SIL). Since IEC 61508-6 does not give detailed explanations of the definitions and PFD avg calculations for its examples, it is difficult for common reliability or safety engineers to understand when they use the standard as guidance in practice. A method using reliability block diagram is investigated in this study in order to provide a clear and feasible way of PFD avg calculation and help those who take IEC 61508-6 as their guidance. The method finds mean down times (MDTs) of both channel and voted group first and then PFD avg . The calculated results of various voted groups are compared with those in IEC61508 part 6 and Ref. [Zhang T, Long W, Sato Y. Availability of systems with self-diagnostic components-applying Markov model to IEC 61508-6. Reliab Eng System Saf 2003;80(2):133-41]. An interesting outcome can be realized from the comparison. Furthermore, although differences in MDT of voted groups exist between IEC 61508-6 and this paper, PFD avg of voted groups are comparatively close. With detailed description, the method of RBD presented can be applied to the quantitative SIL verification, showing a similarity of the method in IEC 61508-6

Selection and reporting of statistical methods to assess reliability of a diagnostic test: Conformity to recommended methods in a peer-reviewed journal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Ji Eun; Sung, Yu Sub; Han, Kyung Hwa

2017-01-01

To evaluate the frequency and adequacy of statistical analyses in a general radiology journal when reporting a reliability analysis for a diagnostic test. Sixty-three studies of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) and 36 studies reporting reliability analyses published in the Korean Journal of Radiology between 2012 and 2016 were analyzed. Studies were judged using the methodological guidelines of the Radiological Society of North America-Quantitative Imaging Biomarkers Alliance (RSNA-QIBA), and COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) initiative. DTA studies were evaluated by nine editorial board members of the journal. Reliability studies were evaluated by study reviewers experienced with reliability analysis. Thirty-one (49.2%) of the 63 DTA studies did not include a reliability analysis when deemed necessary. Among the 36 reliability studies, proper statistical methods were used in all (5/5) studies dealing with dichotomous/nominal data, 46.7% (7/15) of studies dealing with ordinal data, and 95.2% (20/21) of studies dealing with continuous data. Statistical methods were described in sufficient detail regarding weighted kappa in 28.6% (2/7) of studies and regarding the model and assumptions of intraclass correlation coefficient in 35.3% (6/17) and 29.4% (5/17) of studies, respectively. Reliability parameters were used as if they were agreement parameters in 23.1% (3/13) of studies. Reproducibility and repeatability were used incorrectly in 20% (3/15) of studies. Greater attention to the importance of reporting reliability, thorough description of the related statistical methods, efforts not to neglect agreement parameters, and better use of relevant terminology is necessary

Selection and reporting of statistical methods to assess reliability of a diagnostic test: Conformity to recommended methods in a peer-reviewed journal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Ji Eun; Sung, Yu Sub [Dept. of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Han, Kyung Hwa [Dept. of Radiology, Research Institute of Radiological Science, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); and others

2017-11-15

To evaluate the frequency and adequacy of statistical analyses in a general radiology journal when reporting a reliability analysis for a diagnostic test. Sixty-three studies of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) and 36 studies reporting reliability analyses published in the Korean Journal of Radiology between 2012 and 2016 were analyzed. Studies were judged using the methodological guidelines of the Radiological Society of North America-Quantitative Imaging Biomarkers Alliance (RSNA-QIBA), and COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) initiative. DTA studies were evaluated by nine editorial board members of the journal. Reliability studies were evaluated by study reviewers experienced with reliability analysis. Thirty-one (49.2%) of the 63 DTA studies did not include a reliability analysis when deemed necessary. Among the 36 reliability studies, proper statistical methods were used in all (5/5) studies dealing with dichotomous/nominal data, 46.7% (7/15) of studies dealing with ordinal data, and 95.2% (20/21) of studies dealing with continuous data. Statistical methods were described in sufficient detail regarding weighted kappa in 28.6% (2/7) of studies and regarding the model and assumptions of intraclass correlation coefficient in 35.3% (6/17) and 29.4% (5/17) of studies, respectively. Reliability parameters were used as if they were agreement parameters in 23.1% (3/13) of studies. Reproducibility and repeatability were used incorrectly in 20% (3/15) of studies. Greater attention to the importance of reporting reliability, thorough description of the related statistical methods, efforts not to neglect agreement parameters, and better use of relevant terminology is necessary.

Testing a statistical method of global mean palotemperature estimations in a long climate simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

2001-07-01

Current statistical methods of reconstructing the climate of the last centuries are based on statistical models linking climate observations (temperature, sea-level-pressure) and proxy-climate data (tree-ring chronologies, ice-cores isotope concentrations, varved sediments, etc.). These models are calibrated in the instrumental period, and the longer time series of proxy data are then used to estimate the past evolution of the climate variables. Using such methods the global mean temperature of the last 600 years has been recently estimated. In this work this method of reconstruction is tested using data from a very long simulation with a climate model. This testing allows to estimate the errors of the estimations as a function of the number of proxy data and the time scale at which the estimations are probably reliable. (orig.)

System reliability of concrete structures subjected to chloride ingress

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leira, B.J.; Thöns, Sebastian

2017-01-01

attack on the entire bridge, a system model with 90 components is next introduced. This model is employed in order to perform reliability updating based on observations at a number of sites along the bridge. An Enhanced Monte Carlo simulation method (EMC) is applied for this purpose. It is shown...... that application of this simulation method reduces computation times significantly as compared to crude Monte Carlo methods....... are obtained based on measurements from the Gimsøystraumen bridge in Norway. These probability distributions are subsequently employed as input to a prediction model for chloride concentration at the steel reinforcement for a single but arbitrary position along the reinforcement. In order to address chloride...

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Identification of Black Spots Based on Reliability Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmadreza Ghaffari

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Identifying crash “black-spots”, “hot-spots” or “high-risk” locations is one of the most important and prevalent concerns in traffic safety and various methods have been devised and presented for solving this issue until now. In this paper, a new method based on the reliability analysis is presented to identify black-spots. Reliability analysis has an ordered framework to consider the probabilistic nature of engineering problems, so crashes with their probabilistic na -ture can be applied. In this study, the application of this new method was compared with the commonly implemented Frequency and Empirical Bayesian methods using simulated data. The results indicated that the traditional methods can lead to an inconsistent prediction due to their inconsider -ation of the variance of the number of crashes in each site and their dependence on the mean of the data.

Comprehensive reliability allocation method for CNC lathes based on cubic transformed functions of failure mode and effects analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhou; Zhu, Yunpeng; Ren, Hongrui; Zhang, Yimin

2015-03-01

Reliability allocation of computerized numerical controlled(CNC) lathes is very important in industry. Traditional allocation methods only focus on high-failure rate components rather than moderate failure rate components, which is not applicable in some conditions. Aiming at solving the problem of CNC lathes reliability allocating, a comprehensive reliability allocation method based on cubic transformed functions of failure modes and effects analysis(FMEA) is presented. Firstly, conventional reliability allocation methods are introduced. Then the limitations of direct combination of comprehensive allocation method with the exponential transformed FMEA method are investigated. Subsequently, a cubic transformed function is established in order to overcome these limitations. Properties of the new transformed functions are discussed by considering the failure severity and the failure occurrence. Designers can choose appropriate transform amplitudes according to their requirements. Finally, a CNC lathe and a spindle system are used as an example to verify the new allocation method. Seven criteria are considered to compare the results of the new method with traditional methods. The allocation results indicate that the new method is more flexible than traditional methods. By employing the new cubic transformed function, the method covers a wider range of problems in CNC reliability allocation without losing the advantages of traditional methods.

Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Zhaohui; Zhang Qin; Wang Kai; Luo Xiaobing; Liu Sheng

2011-01-01

A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 0 C/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing. (semiconductor devices)

Identifying the Barriers to Using Games and Simulations in Education: Creating a Valid and Reliable Survey Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Justice, Lenora Jean

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to create a valid and reliable instrument to measure teacher perceived barriers to the adoption of games and simulations in instruction. Previous research, interviews with educators, a focus group, an expert review, and a think aloud protocol were used to design a survey instrument. After finalization, the survey was…

Improving the Reliability of Decision-Support Systems for Nuclear Emergency Management by Leveraging Software Design Diversity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tudor B. Ionescu

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces a novel method of continuous verification of simulation software used in decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE. The proposed approach builds on methods from the field of software reliability engineering, such as N-Version Programming, Recovery Blocks, and Consensus Recovery Blocks. We introduce a new acceptance test for dispersion simulation results and a new voting scheme based on taxonomies of simulation results rather than individual simulation results. The acceptance test and the voter are used in a new scheme, which extends the Consensus Recovery Block method by a database of result taxonomies to support machine-learning. This enables the system to learn how to distinguish correct from incorrect results, with respect to the implemented numerical schemes. Considering that decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management are used in a safety-critical application context, the methods introduced in this paper help improve the reliability of the system and the trustworthiness of the simulation results used by emergency managers in the decision making process. The effectiveness of the approach has been assessed using the atmospheric dispersion forecasts of two test versions of the widely used RODOS DSNE system.

Comparison of methods for dependency determination between human failure events within human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepis, M.

2007-01-01

The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease of subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan - Human Reliability Analysis (IJS-HRA) and Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance. (author)

Comparison of Methods for Dependency Determination between Human Failure Events within Human Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2008-01-01

The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan human reliability analysis (IJS-HRA) and standardized plant analysis risk human reliability analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance

Estimating the Optimal Capacity for Reservoir Dam based on Reliability Level for Meeting Demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehrdad Taghian

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: One of the practical and classic problems in the water resource studies is estimation of the optimal reservoir capacity to satisfy demands. However, full supplying demands for total periods need a very high dam to supply demands during severe drought conditions. That means a major part of reservoir capacity and costs is only usable for a short period of the reservoir lifetime, which would be unjustified in economic analysis. Thus, in the proposed method and model, the full meeting demand is only possible for a percent time of the statistical period that is according to reliability constraint. In the general methods, although this concept apparently seems simple, there is a necessity to add binary variables for meeting or not meeting demands in the linear programming model structures. Thus, with many binary variables, solving the problem will be time consuming and difficult. Another way to solve the problem is the application of the yield model. This model includes some simpler assumptions and that is so difficult to consider details of the water resource system. The applicationof evolutionary algorithms, for the problems have many constraints, is also very complicated. Therefore, this study pursues another solution. Materials and Methods: In this study, for development and improvement the usual methods, instead of mix integer linear programming (MILP and the above methods, a simulation model including flow network linear programming is used coupled with an interface manual code in Matlab to account the reliability based on output file of the simulation model. The acre reservoir simulation program (ARSP has been utilized as a simulation model. A major advantage of the ARSP is its inherent flexibility in defining the operating policies through a penalty structure specified by the user. The ARSP utilizes network flow optimization techniques to handle a subset of general linear programming (LP problems for individual time intervals

Real-time hybrid simulation using the convolution integral method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Jig; Christenson, Richard E; Wojtkiewicz, Steven F; Johnson, Erik A

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a real-time hybrid simulation method that will allow complex systems to be tested within the hybrid test framework by employing the convolution integral (CI) method. The proposed CI method is potentially transformative for real-time hybrid simulation. The CI method can allow real-time hybrid simulation to be conducted regardless of the size and complexity of the numerical model and for numerical stability to be ensured in the presence of high frequency responses in the simulation. This paper presents the general theory behind the proposed CI method and provides experimental verification of the proposed method by comparing the CI method to the current integration time-stepping (ITS) method. Real-time hybrid simulation is conducted in the Advanced Hazard Mitigation Laboratory at the University of Connecticut. A seismically excited two-story shear frame building with a magneto-rheological (MR) fluid damper is selected as the test structure to experimentally validate the proposed method. The building structure is numerically modeled and simulated, while the MR damper is physically tested. Real-time hybrid simulation using the proposed CI method is shown to provide accurate results

System reliability analysis using dominant failure modes identified by selective searching technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong-Seok; Ok, Seung-Yong; Song, Junho; Koh, Hyun-Moo

2013-01-01

The failure of a redundant structural system is often described by innumerable system failure modes such as combinations or sequences of local failures. An efficient approach is proposed to identify dominant failure modes in the space of random variables, and then perform system reliability analysis to compute the system failure probability. To identify dominant failure modes in the decreasing order of their contributions to the system failure probability, a new simulation-based selective searching technique is developed using a genetic algorithm. The system failure probability is computed by a multi-scale matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method. Lower-scale MSR analyses evaluate the probabilities of the identified failure modes and their statistical dependence. A higher-scale MSR analysis evaluates the system failure probability based on the results of the lower-scale analyses. Three illustrative examples demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the approach through comparison with existing methods and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed method skillfully identifies the dominant failure modes, including those neglected by existing approaches. The multi-scale MSR method accurately evaluates the system failure probability with statistical dependence fully considered. The decoupling between the failure mode identification and the system reliability evaluation allows for effective applications to larger structural systems

Reliability Analysis of Sealing Structure of Electromechanical System Based on Kriging Model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, F.; Wang, Y. M.; Chen, R. W.; Deng, W. W.; Gao, Y.

2018-05-01

The sealing performance of aircraft electromechanical system has a great influence on flight safety, and the reliability of its typical seal structure is analyzed by researcher. In this paper, we regard reciprocating seal structure as a research object to study structural reliability. Having been based on the finite element numerical simulation method, the contact stress between the rubber sealing ring and the cylinder wall is calculated, and the relationship between the contact stress and the pressure of the hydraulic medium is built, and the friction force on different working conditions are compared. Through the co-simulation, the adaptive Kriging model obtained by EFF learning mechanism is used to describe the failure probability of the seal ring, so as to evaluate the reliability of the sealing structure. This article proposes a new idea of numerical evaluation for the reliability analysis of sealing structure, and also provides a theoretical basis for the optimal design of sealing structure.

Numerical simulation of the flow field in pump intakes by means of Lattice Boltzmann methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, A; Conrad, D; Böhle, M

2013-01-01

Lattice Boltzmann Methods are nowadays popular schemes for solving fluid flow problems of engineering interest. This popularity is due to the advantages of these schemes: For example, the meshing of the fluid domain can be performed fully automatically which results in great simplicity in handling complex geometries. In this paper a numerical scheme for the flow simulation in pump intakes based on a Lattice Boltzmann large eddy approach is presented. The ability of this scheme to capture the flow phenomena of the intake flow at different operating conditions is analysed. For the operational reliability and efficiency of pumps and pump systems, the incoming flow conditions are crucial. Since the efficiency and reliability requirements of pumps are rising and must be guaranteed, the flow conditions in pump intakes have to be evaluated during plant planning. Recent trends show that pump intakes are built more and more compact, which makes the flow in the intake even more complex. Numerical methods are a promising technique for conduction flow analysis in pump intakes, because they can be realised rapidly and cheaply

Evaluation of nodal reliability risk in a deregulated power system with photovoltaic power penetration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Qian; Wang, Peng; Goel, Lalit

2014-01-01

Owing to the intermittent characteristic of solar radiation, power system reliability may be affected with high photovoltaic (PV) power penetration. To reduce large variation of PV power, additional system balancing reserve would be needed. In deregulated power systems, deployment of reserves...... and customer reliability requirements are correlated with energy and reserve prices. Therefore a new method should be developed to evaluate the impacts of PV power on customer reliability and system reserve deployment in the new environment. In this study, a method based on the pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo...... simulation technique has been proposed to evaluate the reserve deployment and customers' nodal reliability with high PV power penetration. The proposed method can effectively model the chronological aspects and stochastic characteristics of PV power and system operation with high computation efficiency...

Numerical simulations of eddy current testing signals of steam generator tubes by 3-D finite element method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, Takayuki; Soneda, Naoki

1996-01-01

In every inspection of Japanese PWR plants, all of steam generator tubes are inspected using Eddy Current Testing (ECT) method. However, the relationships between the ECT signals and the defect shapes are known only for the representative shapes of defects. In order to improve the reliability of inspections and the capability of ECT probes, development of numerical simulation technique of the ECT signals for arbitrarily shaped defects is essential. In this study, three-dimensional finite element code is developed to simulate the ECT signals for any kinds of defects in the SG tubes. The code is fully vectorized so that it runs on the supercomputers very efficiently. The simulation results agree very well with the experimental results. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the relationships between the defect shapes and the ECT signals. (author)

A Simple and Reliable Method of Design for Standalone Photovoltaic Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasarao, Mantri; Sudha, K. Rama; Bhanu, C. V. K.

2017-06-01

Standalone photovoltaic (SAPV) systems are seen as a promoting method of electrifying areas of developing world that lack power grid infrastructure. Proliferations of these systems require a design procedure that is simple, reliable and exhibit good performance over its life time. The proposed methodology uses simple empirical formulae and easily available parameters to design SAPV systems, that is, array size with energy storage. After arriving at the different array size (area), performance curves are obtained for optimal design of SAPV system with high amount of reliability in terms of autonomy at a specified value of loss of load probability (LOLP). Based on the array to load ratio (ALR) and levelized energy cost (LEC) through life cycle cost (LCC) analysis, it is shown that the proposed methodology gives better performance, requires simple data and is more reliable when compared with conventional design using monthly average daily load and insolation.

Incorporating Cyber Layer Failures in Composite Power System Reliability Evaluations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuqi Han

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel approach to analyze the impacts of cyber layer failures (i.e., protection failures and monitoring failures on the reliability evaluation of composite power systems. The reliability and availability of the cyber layer and its protection and monitoring functions with various topologies are derived based on a reliability block diagram method. The availability of the physical layer components are modified via a multi-state Markov chain model, in which the component protection and monitoring strategies, as well as the cyber layer topology, are simultaneously considered. Reliability indices of composite power systems are calculated through non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation. Case studies demonstrate that operational reliability downgrades in cyber layer function failure situations. Moreover, protection function failures have more significant impact on the downgraded reliability than monitoring function failures do, and the reliability indices are especially sensitive to the change of the cyber layer function availability in the range from 0.95 to 1.

Numerical simulation for cracks detection using the finite elements method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Bennoud

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The means of detection must ensure controls either during initial construction, or at the time of exploitation of all parts. The Non destructive testing (NDT gathers the most widespread methods for detecting defects of a part or review the integrity of a structure. In the areas of advanced industry (aeronautics, aerospace, nuclear …, assessing the damage of materials is a key point to control durability and reliability of parts and materials in service. In this context, it is necessary to quantify the damage and identify the different mechanisms responsible for the progress of this damage. It is therefore essential to characterize materials and identify the most sensitive indicators attached to damage to prevent their destruction and use them optimally. In this work, simulation by finite elements method is realized with aim to calculate the electromagnetic energy of interaction: probe and piece (with/without defect. From calculated energy, we deduce the real and imaginary components of the impedance which enables to determine the characteristic parameters of a crack in various metallic parts.

Collection of methods for reliability and safety engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fussell, J.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Wilson, J.R.; Burdick, G.R.; Zipperer, J.C.

1976-04-01

The document presented contains five reports each describing a method of reliability and safety engineering. Report I provides a conceptual framework for the study of component malfunctions during system evaluations. Report II provides methods for locating groups of critical component failures such that all the component failures in a given group can be caused to occur by the occurrence of a single separate event. These groups of component failures are called common cause candidates. Report III provides a method for acquiring and storing system-independent component failure logic information. The information stored is influenced by the concepts presented in Report I and also includes information useful in locating common cause candidates. Report IV puts forth methods for analyzing situations that involve systems which change character in a predetermined time sequence. These phased missions techniques are applicable to the hypothetical ''accident chains'' frequently analyzed for nuclear power plants. Report V presents a unified approach to cause-consequence analysis, a method of analysis useful during risk assessments. This approach, as developed by the Danish Atomic Energy Commission, is modified to reflect the format and symbology conventionally used for other types of analysis of nuclear reactor systems

Method of reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and fuzzy math in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Zhaobing; Deng Jian; Cao Xuewu

2005-01-01

Reliability allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. It can not only be applied to determine the reliability characteristic of reactor systems, subsystem and main components but also be performed to improve the design, operation and maintenance of nuclear plants. The fuzzy math known as one of the powerful tools for fuzzy optimization and the fault analysis deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis can be applied to the reliability allocation model so as to work out the problems of fuzzy characteristic of some factors and subsystem's choice respectively in this paper. Thus we develop a failure rate allocation model on the basis of the fault tree analysis and fuzzy math. For the choice of the reliability constraint factors, we choose the six important ones according to practical need for conducting the reliability allocation. The subsystem selected by the top-level fault tree analysis is to avoid allocating reliability for all the equipment and components including the unnecessary parts. During the reliability process, some factors can be calculated or measured quantitatively while others only can be assessed qualitatively by the expert rating method. So we adopt fuzzy decision and dualistic contrast to realize the reliability allocation with the help of fault tree analysis. Finally the example of the emergency diesel generator's reliability allocation is used to illustrate reliability allocation model and improve this model simple and applicable. (authors)

Inference on the reliability of Weibull distribution with multiply Type-I censored data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Jiang, Ping; Guo, Bo

2016-01-01

In this paper, we focus on the reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring, which is a general form of Type-I censoring. In multiply Type-I censoring in this study, all units in the life testing experiment are terminated at different times. Reliability estimation with the maximum likelihood estimate of Weibull parameters is conducted. With the delta method and Fisher information, we propose a confidence interval for reliability and compare it with the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap confidence interval. Furthermore, a scenario involving a few expert judgments of reliability is considered. A method is developed to generate extended estimations of reliability according to the original judgments and transform them to estimations of Weibull parameters. With Bayes theory and the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method, a posterior sample is obtained to compute the Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the proposed confidence interval outperforms the bootstrap one. The Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability are both satisfactory. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods. - Highlights: • We focus on reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring. • The proposed confidence interval for the reliability is superior after comparison. • The Bayes estimates with a few expert judgements on reliability are satisfactory. • We specify the cases where the MLEs do not exist and present methods to remedy it. • The distribution of estimate of reliability should be used for accurate estimate.

Comparison of projection skills of deterministic ensemble methods using pseudo-simulation data generated from multivariate Gaussian distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Seok-Geun; Suh, Myoung-Seok

2017-07-01

The projection skills of five ensemble methods were analyzed according to simulation skills, training period, and ensemble members, using 198 sets of pseudo-simulation data (PSD) produced by random number generation assuming the simulated temperature of regional climate models. The PSD sets were classified into 18 categories according to the relative magnitude of bias, variance ratio, and correlation coefficient, where each category had 11 sets (including 1 truth set) with 50 samples. The ensemble methods used were as follows: equal weighted averaging without bias correction (EWA_NBC), EWA with bias correction (EWA_WBC), weighted ensemble averaging based on root mean square errors and correlation (WEA_RAC), WEA based on the Taylor score (WEA_Tay), and multivariate linear regression (Mul_Reg). The projection skills of the ensemble methods improved generally as compared with the best member for each category. However, their projection skills are significantly affected by the simulation skills of the ensemble member. The weighted ensemble methods showed better projection skills than non-weighted methods, in particular, for the PSD categories having systematic biases and various correlation coefficients. The EWA_NBC showed considerably lower projection skills than the other methods, in particular, for the PSD categories with systematic biases. Although Mul_Reg showed relatively good skills, it showed strong sensitivity to the PSD categories, training periods, and number of members. On the other hand, the WEA_Tay and WEA_RAC showed relatively superior skills in both the accuracy and reliability for all the sensitivity experiments. This indicates that WEA_Tay and WEA_RAC are applicable even for simulation data with systematic biases, a short training period, and a small number of ensemble members.

Matrix method for acoustic levitation simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Marco A B; Perez, Nicolas; Buiochi, Flavio; Adamowski, Julio C

2011-08-01

A matrix method is presented for simulating acoustic levitators. A typical acoustic levitator consists of an ultrasonic transducer and a reflector. The matrix method is used to determine the potential for acoustic radiation force that acts on a small sphere in the standing wave field produced by the levitator. The method is based on the Rayleigh integral and it takes into account the multiple reflections that occur between the transducer and the reflector. The potential for acoustic radiation force obtained by the matrix method is validated by comparing the matrix method results with those obtained by the finite element method when using an axisymmetric model of a single-axis acoustic levitator. After validation, the method is applied in the simulation of a noncontact manipulation system consisting of two 37.9-kHz Langevin-type transducers and a plane reflector. The manipulation system allows control of the horizontal position of a small levitated sphere from -6 mm to 6 mm, which is done by changing the phase difference between the two transducers. The horizontal position of the sphere predicted by the matrix method agrees with the horizontal positions measured experimentally with a charge-coupled device camera. The main advantage of the matrix method is that it allows simulation of non-symmetric acoustic levitators without requiring much computational effort.

User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

Science.gov (United States)

Nicol, David M.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Rifkin, Adam

1992-01-01

The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

Methods for estimating the reliability of the RBMK fuel assemblies and elements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemin, A.I.; Sitkarev, A.G.

1985-01-01

Applied non-parametric methods for calculation of point and interval estimations for the basic nomenclature of reliability factors for the RBMK fuel assemblies and elements are described. As the fuel assembly and element reliability factors, the average lifetime is considered at a preset operating time up to unloading due to fuel burnout as well as the average lifetime at the reactor transient operation and at the steady-state fuel reloading mode of reactor operation. The formulae obtained are included into the special standardized engineering documentation

Assessment of Electronic Circuits Reliability Using Boolean Truth Table Modeling Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

EI-Shanshoury, A.I.

2011-01-01

This paper explores the use of Boolean Truth Table modeling Method (BTTM) in the analysis of qualitative data. It is widely used in certain fields especially in the fields of electrical and electronic engineering. Our work focuses on the evaluation of power supply circuit reliability using (BTTM) which involves systematic attempts to falsify and identify hypotheses on the basis of truth tables constructed from qualitative data. Reliability parameters such as the system's failure rates for the power supply case study are estimated. All possible state combinations (operating and failed states) of the major components in the circuit were listed and their effects on overall system were studied

An attempt to use FMEA method for an approximate reliability assessment of machinery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Przystupa Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a modified FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis method to assess reliability of the components that make up a wrench type 2145: MAX Impactol TM Driver Ingersoll Rand Company. This case concerns the analysis of reliability in conditions, when full service data is not known. The aim of the study is to determine the weakest element in the design of the tool.

Reliable assessment of general surgeons' non-technical skills based on video-recordings of patient simulated scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Spanager, Lene; Beier-Holgersen, Randi; Dieckmann, Peter; Konge, Lars; Rosenberg, Jacob; Oestergaard, Doris

2013-11-01

Nontechnical skills are essential for safe and efficient surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of an assessment tool for surgeons' nontechnical skills, Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk), and the effect of rater training. A 1-day course was conducted for 15 general surgeons in which they rated surgeons' nontechnical skills in 9 video recordings of scenarios simulating real intraoperative situations. Data were gathered from 2 sessions separated by a 4-hour training session. Interrater reliability was high for both pretraining ratings (Cronbach's α = .97) and posttraining ratings (Cronbach's α = .98). There was no statistically significant development in assessment skills. The D study showed that 2 untrained raters or 1 trained rater was needed to obtain generalizability coefficients >.80. The high pretraining interrater reliability indicates that videos were easy to rate and Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk easy to use. This implies that Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk) could be an important tool in surgical training, potentially improving safety and quality for surgical patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of reliable gridded reference data for statistical downscaling methods in Alberta

Science.gov (United States)

Eum, H. I.; Gupta, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models provide essential information to assess impacts of climate change at regional and global scales. However, statistical downscaling methods have been applied to prepare climate model data for various applications such as hydrologic and ecologic modelling at a watershed scale. As the reliability and (spatial and temporal) resolution of statistically downscaled climate data mainly depend on a reference data, identifying the most reliable reference data is crucial for statistical downscaling. A growing number of gridded climate products are available for key climate variables which are main input data to regional modelling systems. However, inconsistencies in these climate products, for example, different combinations of climate variables, varying data domains and data lengths and data accuracy varying with physiographic characteristics of the landscape, have caused significant challenges in selecting the most suitable reference climate data for various environmental studies and modelling. Employing various observation-based daily gridded climate products available in public domain, i.e. thin plate spline regression products (ANUSPLIN and TPS), inverse distance method (Alberta Townships), and numerical climate model (North American Regional Reanalysis) and an optimum interpolation technique (Canadian Precipitation Analysis), this study evaluates the accuracy of the climate products at each grid point by comparing with the Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD) observations for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature over the province of Alberta. Based on the performance of climate products at AHCCD stations, we ranked the reliability of these publically available climate products corresponding to the elevations of stations discretized into several classes. According to the rank of climate products for each elevation class, we identified the most reliable climate products based on the elevation of target points. A web-based system

[A reliability growth assessment method and its application in the development of equipment in space cabin].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J D; Sun, H L

1999-04-01

Objective. To assess and predict reliability of an equipment dynamically by making full use of various test informations in the development of products. Method. A new reliability growth assessment method based on army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) model was developed. The method is composed of the AMSAA model and test data conversion technology. Result. The assessment and prediction results of a space-borne equipment conform to its expectations. Conclusion. It is suggested that this method should be further researched and popularized.

Reliable low precision simulations in land surface models

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Andrew; Düben, Peter D.; MacLeod, David A.; Palmer, Tim N.

2017-12-01

Weather and climate models must continue to increase in both resolution and complexity in order that forecasts become more accurate and reliable. Moving to lower numerical precision may be an essential tool for coping with the demand for ever increasing model complexity in addition to increasing computing resources. However, there have been some concerns in the weather and climate modelling community over the suitability of lower precision for climate models, particularly for representing processes that change very slowly over long time-scales. These processes are difficult to represent using low precision due to time increments being systematically rounded to zero. Idealised simulations are used to demonstrate that a model of deep soil heat diffusion that fails when run in single precision can be modified to work correctly using low precision, by splitting up the model into a small higher precision part and a low precision part. This strategy retains the computational benefits of reduced precision whilst preserving accuracy. This same technique is also applied to a full complexity land surface model, resulting in rounding errors that are significantly smaller than initial condition and parameter uncertainties. Although lower precision will present some problems for the weather and climate modelling community, many of the problems can likely be overcome using a straightforward and physically motivated application of reduced precision.

Stress-strength reliability for general bivariate distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alaa H. Abdel-Hamid

2016-10-01

Full Text Available An expression for the stress-strength reliability R=P(X1reliability function R are obtained. In the non-parametric case, point and interval estimates of R are developed using Govindarajulu's asymptotic distribution-free method when X1 and X2 are dependent. An example is given when the population distribution is bivariate compound Weibull. Simulation is performed, based on different sample sizes to study the performance of estimates.

Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for Laminated Composite Plate Using Response Surface Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seokje; Kim, Ingul; Jang, Moonho; Kim, Jaeki; Moon, Jungwon

2013-01-01

Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using Callosum and Meatball interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle

Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for Laminated Composite Plate Using Response Surface Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Seokje; Kim, Ingul [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Moonho; Kim, Jaeki; Moon, Jungwon [LIG Nex1, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2013-04-15

Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using Callosum and Meatball interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle.

Analyzing the reliability of shuffle-exchange networks using reliability block diagrams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bistouni, Fathollah; Jahanshahi, Mohsen

2014-01-01

Supercomputers and multi-processor systems are comprised of thousands of processors that need to communicate in an efficient way. One reasonable solution would be the utilization of multistage interconnection networks (MINs), where the challenge is to analyze the reliability of such networks. One of the methods to increase the reliability and fault-tolerance of the MINs is use of various switching stages. Therefore, recently, the reliability of one of the most common MINs namely shuffle-exchange network (SEN) has been evaluated through the investigation on the impact of increasing the number of switching stage. Also, it is concluded that the reliability of SEN with one additional stage (SEN+) is better than SEN or SEN with two additional stages (SEN+2), even so, the reliability of SEN is better compared to SEN with two additional stages (SEN+2). Here we re-evaluate the reliability of these networks where the results of the terminal, broadcast, and network reliability analysis demonstrate that SEN+ and SEN+2 continuously outperform SEN and are very alike in terms of reliability. - Highlights: • The impact of increasing the number of stages on reliability of MINs is investigated. • The RBD method as an accurate method is used for the reliability analysis of MINs. • Complex series–parallel RBDs are used to determine the reliability of the MINs. • All measures of the reliability (i.e. terminal, broadcast, and network reliability) are analyzed. • All reliability equations will be calculated for different size N×N

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

Science.gov (United States)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

On reliable discovery of molecular signatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Björkegren Johan

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular signatures are sets of genes, proteins, genetic variants or other variables that can be used as markers for a particular phenotype. Reliable signature discovery methods could yield valuable insight into cell biology and mechanisms of human disease. However, it is currently not clear how to control error rates such as the false discovery rate (FDR in signature discovery. Moreover, signatures for cancer gene expression have been shown to be unstable, that is, difficult to replicate in independent studies, casting doubts on their reliability. Results We demonstrate that with modern prediction methods, signatures that yield accurate predictions may still have a high FDR. Further, we show that even signatures with low FDR may fail to replicate in independent studies due to limited statistical power. Thus, neither stability nor predictive accuracy are relevant when FDR control is the primary goal. We therefore develop a general statistical hypothesis testing framework that for the first time provides FDR control for signature discovery. Our method is demonstrated to be correct in simulation studies. When applied to five cancer data sets, the method was able to discover molecular signatures with 5% FDR in three cases, while two data sets yielded no significant findings. Conclusion Our approach enables reliable discovery of molecular signatures from genome-wide data with current sample sizes. The statistical framework developed herein is potentially applicable to a wide range of prediction problems in bioinformatics.

2-d Simulations of Test Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thrane, Lars Nyholm

2004-01-01

One of the main obstacles for the further development of self-compacting concrete is to relate the fresh concrete properties to the form filling ability. Therefore, simulation of the form filling ability will provide a powerful tool in obtaining this goal. In this paper, a continuum mechanical...... approach is presented by showing initial results from 2-d simulations of the empirical test methods slump flow and L-box. This method assumes a homogeneous material, which is expected to correspond to particle suspensions e.g. concrete, when it remains stable. The simulations have been carried out when...... using both a Newton and Bingham model for characterisation of the rheological properties of the concrete. From the results, it is expected that both the slump flow and L-box can be simulated quite accurately when the model is extended to 3-d and the concrete is characterised according to the Bingham...

用Delta法估计多维测验合成信度的置信区间%Estimating the Confidence Interval of Composite Reliability of a Multidimensional Test With the Delta Method

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

叶宝娟; 温忠麟

2012-01-01

Reliability is very important in evaluating the quality of a test. Based on the confirmatory factor analysis, composite reliabili- ty is a good index to estimate the test reliability for general applications. As is well known, point estimate contains limited information a- bout a population parameter and cannot indicate how far it can be from the population parameter. The confidence interval of the parame- ter can provide more information. In evaluating the quality of a test, the confidence interval of composite reliability has received atten- tion in recent years. There are three approaches to estimating the confidence interval of composite reliability of an unidimensional test: the Bootstrap method, the Delta method, and the direct use of the standard error of a software output (e. g. , LISREL). The Bootstrap method pro- vides empirical results of the standard error, and is the most credible method. But it needs data simulation techniques, and its computa- tion process is rather complex. The Delta method computes the standard error of composite reliability by approximate calculation. It is simpler than the Bootstrap method. The LISREL software can directly prompt the standard error, and it is the easiest among the three methods. By simulation study, it had been found that the interval estimates obtained by the Delta method and the Bootstrap method were almost identical, whereas the results obtained by LISREL and by the Bootstrap method were substantially different ( Ye & Wen, 2011 ). The Delta method is recommended when the confidence interval of composite reliability of a unidimensional test is estimated, because the Delta method is simpler than the Bootstrap method. There was little research about how to compute the confidence interval of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. We de- duced a formula by using the Delta method for computing the standard error of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. Based on the standard error, the

Development of an Output-based Adaptive Method for Multi-Dimensional Euler and Navier-Stokes Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Darmofal, David L.

2003-01-01

The use of computational simulations in the prediction of complex aerodynamic flows is becoming increasingly prevalent in the design process within the aerospace industry. Continuing advancements in both computing technology and algorithmic development are ultimately leading to attempts at simulating ever-larger, more complex problems. However, by increasing the reliance on computational simulations in the design cycle, we must also increase the accuracy of these simulations in order to maintain or improve the reliability arid safety of the resulting aircraft. At the same time, large-scale computational simulations must be made more affordable so that their potential benefits can be fully realized within the design cycle. Thus, a continuing need exists for increasing the accuracy and efficiency of computational algorithms such that computational fluid dynamics can become a viable tool in the design of more reliable, safer aircraft. The objective of this research was the development of an error estimation and grid adaptive strategy for reducing simulation errors in integral outputs (functionals) such as lift or drag from from multi-dimensional Euler and Navier-Stokes simulations. In this final report, we summarize our work during this grant.

Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boring, R. L.

2006-01-01

This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

Estimation of Bridge Reliability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thoft-Christensen, Palle

In this paper it is shown how the so-called reliability distributions can be estimated using crude Monte Carlo simulation. The main purpose is to demonstrate the methodology. Therefor very exact data concerning reliability and deterioration are not needed. However, it is intended in the paper to ...

How to Map Theory: Reliable Methods Are Fruitless Without Rigorous Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Kurt

2017-09-01

Good science requires both reliable methods and rigorous theory. Theory allows us to build a unified structure of knowledge, to connect the dots of individual studies and reveal the bigger picture. Some have criticized the proliferation of pet "Theories," but generic "theory" is essential to healthy science, because questions of theory are ultimately those of validity. Although reliable methods and rigorous theory are synergistic, Action Identification suggests psychological tension between them: The more we focus on methodological details, the less we notice the broader connections. Therefore, psychology needs to supplement training in methods (how to design studies and analyze data) with training in theory (how to connect studies and synthesize ideas). This article provides a technique for visually outlining theory: theory mapping. Theory mapping contains five elements, which are illustrated with moral judgment and with cars. Also included are 15 additional theory maps provided by experts in emotion, culture, priming, power, stress, ideology, morality, marketing, decision-making, and more (see all at theorymaps.org ). Theory mapping provides both precision and synthesis, which helps to resolve arguments, prevent redundancies, assess the theoretical contribution of papers, and evaluate the likelihood of surprising effects.

Inter- and intra- observer reliability of risk assessment of repetitive work without an explicit method.

Science.gov (United States)

Eliasson, Kristina; Palm, Peter; Nyman, Teresia; Forsman, Mikael

2017-07-01

A common way to conduct practical risk assessments is to observe a job and report the observed long term risks for musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-observer reliability of ergonomists' risk assessments without the support of an explicit risk assessment method. Twenty-one experienced ergonomists assessed the risk level (low, moderate, high risk) of eight upper body regions, as well as the global risk of 10 video recorded work tasks. Intra-observer reliability was assessed by having nine of the ergonomists repeat the procedure at least three weeks after the first assessment. The ergonomists made their risk assessment based on his/her experience and knowledge. The statistical parameters of reliability included agreement in %, kappa, linearly weighted kappa, intraclass correlation and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The average inter-observer agreement of the global risk was 53% and the corresponding weighted kappa (K w ) was 0.32, indicating fair reliability. The intra-observer agreement was 61% and 0.41 (K w ). This study indicates that risk assessments of the upper body, without the use of an explicit observational method, have non-acceptable reliability. It is therefore recommended to use systematic risk assessment methods to a higher degree. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Development of reliability centered maintenance methods and tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacquot, J.P.; Dubreuil-Chambardel, A.; Lannoy, A.; Monnier, B.

1992-12-01

This paper recalls the development of the RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) approach in the nuclear industry and describes the trial study implemented by EDF in the context of the OMF (RCM) Project. The approach developed is currently being applied to about thirty systems (Industrial Project). On a parallel, R and D efforts are being maintained to improve the selectivity of the analysis methods. These methods use Probabilistic Safety Study models, thereby guaranteeing better selectivity in the identification of safety critical elements and enhancing consistency between Maintenance and Safety studies. They also offer more detailed analysis of operation feedback, invoking for example Bayes' methods combining expert judgement and feedback data. Finally, they propose a functional and material representation of the plant. This dual representation describes both the functions assured by maintenance provisions and the material elements required for their implementation. In the final chapter, the targets of the future OMF workstation are summarized and the latter's insertion in the EDF information system is briefly described. (authors). 5 figs., 2 tabs., 7 refs

Reliability and maintainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

Several communications in this conference are concerned with nuclear plant reliability and maintainability; their titles are: maintenance optimization of stand-by Diesels of 900 MW nuclear power plants; CLAIRE: an event-based simulation tool for software testing; reliability as one important issue within the periodic safety review of nuclear power plants; design of nuclear building ventilation by the means of functional analysis; operation characteristic analysis for a power industry plant park, as a function of influence parameters

Evaluation of the reliability of Levine method of wound swab for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of Levine swab in accurate identification of microorganisms present in a wound and identify the necessity for further studies in this regard. Methods: A semi structured questionnaire was administered and physical examination was performed on patients with chronic wounds ...

GNSS Single Frequency, Single Epoch Reliable Attitude Determination Method with Baseline Vector Constraint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ang Gong

2015-12-01

Full Text Available For Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS single frequency, single epoch attitude determination, this paper proposes a new reliable method with baseline vector constraint. First, prior knowledge of baseline length, heading, and pitch obtained from other navigation equipment or sensors are used to reconstruct objective function rigorously. Then, searching strategy is improved. It substitutes gradually Enlarged ellipsoidal search space for non-ellipsoidal search space to ensure correct ambiguity candidates are within it and make the searching process directly be carried out by least squares ambiguity decorrelation algorithm (LAMBDA method. For all vector candidates, some ones are further eliminated by derived approximate inequality, which accelerates the searching process. Experimental results show that compared to traditional method with only baseline length constraint, this new method can utilize a priori baseline three-dimensional knowledge to fix ambiguity reliably and achieve a high success rate. Experimental tests also verify it is not very sensitive to baseline vector error and can perform robustly when angular error is not great.

Probabilistic methods for the simulation of fuel particles behavior under irradiation; Apport des methodes probabilistes dans la simulation du comportement sous irradiation du combustible a particules