WorldWideScience

Sample records for reliability predictability flexibility

  1. CCTop: An Intuitive, Flexible and Reliable CRISPR/Cas9 Target Prediction Tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Stemmer

    Full Text Available Engineering of the CRISPR/Cas9 system has opened a plethora of new opportunities for site-directed mutagenesis and targeted genome modification. Fundamental to this is a stretch of twenty nucleotides at the 5' end of a guide RNA that provides specificity to the bound Cas9 endonuclease. Since a sequence of twenty nucleotides can occur multiple times in a given genome and some mismatches seem to be accepted by the CRISPR/Cas9 complex, an efficient and reliable in silico selection and evaluation of the targeting site is key prerequisite for the experimental success. Here we present the CRISPR/Cas9 target online predictor (CCTop, http://crispr.cos.uni-heidelberg.de to overcome limitations of already available tools. CCTop provides an intuitive user interface with reasonable default parameters that can easily be tuned by the user. From a given query sequence, CCTop identifies and ranks all candidate sgRNA target sites according to their off-target quality and displays full documentation. CCTop was experimentally validated for gene inactivation, non-homologous end-joining as well as homology directed repair. Thus, CCTop provides the bench biologist with a tool for the rapid and efficient identification of high quality target sites.

  2. Reliability analysis of stiff versus flexible piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    The overall objective of this research project is to develop a technical basis for flexible piping designs which will improve piping reliability and minimize the use of pipe supports, snubbers, and pipe whip restraints. The current study was conducted to establish the necessary groundwork based on the piping reliability analysis. A confirmatory piping reliability assessment indicated that removing rigid supports and snubbers tends to either improve or affect very little the piping reliability. The authors then investigated a couple of changes to be implemented in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.61 and RG 1.122 aimed at more flexible piping design. They concluded that these changes substantially reduce calculated piping responses and allow piping redesigns with significant reduction in number of supports and snubbers without violating ASME code requirements. Furthermore, the more flexible piping redesigns are capable of exhibiting reliability levels equal to or higher than the original stiffer design. An investigation of the malfunction of pipe whip restraints confirmed that the malfunction introduced higher thermal stresses and tended to reduce the overall piping reliability. Finally, support and component reliabilities were evaluated based on available fragility data. Results indicated that the support reliability usually exhibits a moderate decrease as the piping flexibility increases. Most on-line pumps and valves showed an insignificant reduction in reliability for a more flexible piping design

  3. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  4. Design for low-power and reliable flexible electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Tsung-Ching (Jim)

    Flexible electronics are emerging as an alternative to conventional Si electronics for large-area low-cost applications such as e-paper, smart sensors, and disposable RFID tags. By utilizing inexpensive manufacturing methods such as ink-jet printing and roll-to-roll imprinting, flexible electronics can be made on low-cost plastics just like printing a newspaper. However, the key elements of exible electronics, thin-film transistors (TFTs), have slower operating speeds and less reliability than their Si electronics counterparts. Furthermore, depending on the material property, TFTs are usually mono-type -- either p- or n-type -- devices. Making air-stable complementary TFT circuits is very challenging and not applicable to most TFT technologies. Existing design methodologies for Si electronics, therefore, cannot be directly applied to exible electronics. Other inhibiting factors such as high supply voltage, large process variation, and lack of trustworthy device modeling also make designing larger-scale and robust TFT circuits a significant challenge. The major goal of this dissertation is to provide a viable solution for robust circuit design in exible electronics. I will first introduce a reliability simulation framework that can predict the degraded TFT circuits' performance under bias-stress. This framework has been validated using the amorphous-silicon (a-Si) TFT scan driver for TFT-LCD displays. To reuse the existing CMOS design ow for exible electronics, I propose a Pseudo-CMOS cell library that can make TFT circuits operable under low supply voltage and which has post-fabrication tunability for reliability and performance enhancement. This cell library has been validated using 2V self-assembly-monolayer (SAM) organic TFTs with a low-cost shadow-mask deposition process. I will also demonstrate a 3-bit 1.25KS/s Flash ADC in a-Si TFTs, which is based on the proposed Pseudo-CMOS cell library, and explore more possibilities in display, energy, and sensing

  5. Reliability Issues and Solutions in Flexible Electronics Under Mechanical Fatigue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Seol-Min; Choi, In-Suk; Kim, Byoung-Joon; Joo, Young-Chang

    2018-03-01

    Flexible devices are of significant interest due to their potential expansion of the application of smart devices into various fields, such as energy harvesting, biological applications and consumer electronics. Due to the mechanically dynamic operations of flexible electronics, their mechanical reliability must be thoroughly investigated to understand their failure mechanisms and lifetimes. Reliability issue caused by bending fatigue, one of the typical operational limitations of flexible electronics, has been studied using various test methodologies; however, electromechanical evaluations which are essential to assess the reliability of electronic devices for flexible applications had not been investigated because the testing method was not established. By employing the in situ bending fatigue test, we has studied the failure mechanism for various conditions and parameters, such as bending strain, fatigue area, film thickness, and lateral dimensions. Moreover, various methods for improving the bending reliability have been developed based on the failure mechanism. Nanostructures such as holes, pores, wires and composites of nanoparticles and nanotubes have been suggested for better reliability. Flexible devices were also investigated to find the potential failures initiated by complex structures under bending fatigue strain. In this review, the recent advances in test methodology, mechanism studies, and practical applications are introduced. Additionally, perspectives including the future advance to stretchable electronics are discussed based on the current achievements in research.

  6. Flexible, reliable software using patterns and agile development

    CERN Document Server

    Christensen, Henrik B

    2010-01-01

    …This book brings together a careful selection of topics that are relevant, indeed crucial, for developing good quality software with a carefully designed pedagogy that leads the reader through an experience of active learning. The emphasis in the content is on practical goals-how to construct reliable and flexible software systems-covering many topics that every software engineer should have studied. The emphasis in the method is on providing a practical context, hands-on projects, and guidance on process. … The text discusses not only what the end product should be like, but also how to get

  7. Stochastic Differential Equation-Based Flexible Software Reliability Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Kapur

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several software reliability growth models (SRGMs have been developed by software developers in tracking and measuring the growth of reliability. As the size of software system is large and the number of faults detected during the testing phase becomes large, so the change of the number of faults that are detected and removed through each debugging becomes sufficiently small compared with the initial fault content at the beginning of the testing phase. In such a situation, we can model the software fault detection process as a stochastic process with continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a new software reliability growth model based on Itô type of stochastic differential equation. We consider an SDE-based generalized Erlang model with logistic error detection function. The model is estimated and validated on real-life data sets cited in literature to show its flexibility. The proposed model integrated with the concept of stochastic differential equation performs comparatively better than the existing NHPP-based models.

  8. Reliability tasks from prediction to field use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guyot, Christian.

    1975-01-01

    This tutorial paper is part of a series intended to sensitive on reliability prolems. Reliability probabilistic concept, is an important parameter of availability. Reliability prediction is an estimation process for evaluating design progress. It is only by the application of a reliability program that reliability objectives can be attained through the different stages of work: conception, fabrication, field use. The user is mainly interested in operational reliability. Indication are given on the support and the treatment of data in the case of electronic equipment at C.E.A. Reliability engineering requires a special state of mind which must be formed and developed in a company in the same way as it may be done for example for safety [fr

  9. Verification, validation, and reliability of predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1987-04-01

    The objective of predicting long-term performance should be to make reliable determinations of whether the prediction falls within the criteria for acceptable performance. Establishing reliable predictions of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis on valid theories to predict performance. The validation process must establish the validity of the theory, the parameters used in applying the theory, the arithmetic of calculations, and the interpretation of results; but validation of such performance predictions is not possible unless there are clear criteria for acceptable performance. Validation programs should emphasize identification of the substantive issues of prediction that need to be resolved. Examples relevant to waste package performance are predicting the life of waste containers and the time distribution of container failures, establishing the criteria for defining container failure, validating theories for time-dependent waste dissolution that depend on details of the repository environment, and determining the extent of congruent dissolution of radionuclides in the UO 2 matrix of spent fuel. Prediction and validation should go hand in hand and should be done and reviewed frequently, as essential tools for the programs to design and develop repositories. 29 refs

  10. Reliability and lifetime predictions of SLC klystrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, M.A.; Callin, R.S.; Fowkes, W.R.; Lee, T.G.; Vlieks, A.E.

    1989-01-01

    The energy upgrade of SLAC, with the first of the new 67 MW SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) klystrons, began over four years ago. Today there are over 200 of these klystrons in operation. As a result, there is a wealth of klystron performance and failure information that enables reasonable predictions to be made on life expectancy and reliability. Data from initial tests, follow-up tests and daily operation monitoring on the accelerator is stored for analysis. Presented here are life expectancy predictions with particular emphasis on cathode life. Also, based on this data, the authors will discuss some of the principal modes of failure. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  11. Reliability and lifetime predictions of SLC klystrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, M.A.; Callin, R.S.; Fowkes, W.R.; Lee, T.G.; Vlieks, A.E.

    1989-03-01

    The energy upgrade of SLAC, with the first of the new 67 MW SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) klystrons, began over four years ago. Today there are over 200 of these klystrons in operation. As a result, there is a wealth klystron performance and failure information that enables reasonable predictions to be made on life expectancy and reliability. Data from initial tests, follow-up tests and daily operation monitoring on the accelerator is stores for analysis. Presented here are life expectancy predictions with particular emphasis on cathode life. Also, based on this data, we will discuss some of the principal modes of failure. 3 refs., 2 figs

  12. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models for Force Prediction of a Mechatronic Flexible Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achiche, S.; Shlechtingen, M.; Raison, M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results obtained from a research work investigating the performance of different Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models developed to predict excitation forces on a dynamically loaded flexible structure. For this purpose, a flexible structure is equipped...... obtained from applying a random excitation force on the flexible structure. The performance of the developed models is evaluated by analyzing the prediction capabilities based on a normalized prediction error. The frequency domain is considered to analyze the similarity of the frequencies in the predicted...... of the sampling frequency and sensor location on the model performance is investigated. The results obtained in this paper show that ANFIS models can be used to set up reliable force predictors for dynamical loaded flexible structures, when a certain degree of inaccuracy is accepted. Furthermore, the comparison...

  13. Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1995-01-01

    A number of software reliability models have been developed to estimate and to predict software reliability. However, there are no established standard models to quantify software reliability. Most models estimate the quality of software in reliability figures such as remaining faults, failure rate, or mean time to next failure at the testing phase, and they consider them ultimate indicators of software reliability. Experience shows that there is a large gap between predicted reliability during development and reliability measured during operation, which means that predicted reliability, or so-called test reliability, is not operational reliability. Customers prefer operational reliability to test reliability. In this study, we propose a method that predicts operational reliability rather than test reliability by introducing the testing environment factor that quantifies the changes in environments

  14. Between Flexibility and Reliability. Changing Planning Culture in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiu-Yuan Wang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to provide an outline to address questions with regard to the transformation of planning in China that has occurred after the 1980s. The research is using “planning evolution” as the main research skeleton. The starting point is to investigate to what extent Chinese urban planning has developed after the opening up and other reforms under the state-led and market-driven modes of Chinese reformation, and to investigate how the different modes and various actors have influenced urban planning, based on the investigation of the respective political and economic changes within the initial reformation in general, and planning in particular. In recent years, China has undeniably undergone a dramatic process of urban growth and transformation. Apart from its speed and scope, it is less recognized that these processes are confronting the Chinese planning institutions with new and unexpected demands almost on a daily basis. In reference to the increasing importance of private investments and developments within the Chinese urbanization process, a new balance between public planning and private developments, and between top-down and bottom-up approaches is required to be able to generate both a reliable and responsible framework for long-term urban development and a flexible system of implementation that meets the needs of changing conditions and new demands. Flexibility and reliability become the new demands for planning practice. Based on the theory of planning culture, planning traditions, concepts, systems and decision-making processes are always related to the cultural context and cultural background of the people and societies involved. Investigating the contemporary urban transformation and urban development processes in China can allow us to outline the new planning culture of contemporary China in relation to its historical roots and traditional characteristics in a long term framework. I argue that the changing

  15. Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

  16. Final report on reliability and lifetime prediction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillen, Kenneth T; Wise, Jonathan; Jones, Gary D.; Causa, Al G.; Terrill, Edward R.; Borowczak, Marc

    2012-12-01

    This document highlights the important results obtained from the subtask of the Goodyear CRADA devoted to better understanding reliability of tires and to developing better lifetime prediction methods. The overall objective was to establish the chemical and physical basis for the degradation of tires using standard as well as unique models and experimental techniques. Of particular interest was the potential application of our unique modulus profiling apparatus for assessing tire properties and for following tire degradation. During the course of this complex investigation, extensive relevant information was generated, including experimental results, data analyses and development of models and instruments. Detailed descriptions of the findings are included in this report.

  17. Software reliability prediction using SPN | Abbasabadee | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Software reliability prediction using SPN. ... In this research for computation of software reliability, component reliability model based on SPN would be proposed. An isomorphic markov ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  18. Can shoulder dystocia be reliably predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, Jodie M; Catcheside, Britt; Scheil, Wendy

    2012-06-01

    To evaluate factors reported to increase the risk of shoulder dystocia, and to evaluate their predictive value at a population level. The South Australian Pregnancy Outcome Unit's population database from 2005 to 2010 was accessed to determine the occurrence of shoulder dystocia in addition to reported risk factors, including age, parity, self-reported ethnicity, presence of diabetes and infant birth weight. Odds ratios (and 95% confidence interval) of shoulder dystocia was calculated for each risk factor, which were then incorporated into a logistic regression model. Test characteristics for each variable in predicting shoulder dystocia were calculated. As a proportion of all births, the reported rate of shoulder dystocia increased significantly from 0.95% in 2005 to 1.38% in 2010 (P = 0.0002). Using a logistic regression model, induction of labour and infant birth weight greater than both 4000 and 4500 g were identified as significant independent predictors of shoulder dystocia. The value of risk factors alone and when incorporated into the logistic regression model was poorly predictive of the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. While there are a number of factors associated with an increased risk of shoulder dystocia, none are of sufficient sensitivity or positive predictive value to allow their use clinically to reliably and accurately identify the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. © 2012 The Authors ANZJOG © 2012 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  19. Reliable Radiographic Inspection of Flexible Risers for the Oil Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Rômulo M.; Rebello, Joao Marcos A.; Vaz, Murilo A.

    2010-02-01

    Flexible risers are composite tubular structures manufactured by the concentric assemblage of cylindrical polymeric and helically wound metallic layers employed to convey pressurized fluids such as oil, gas and water in the ocean environment. The metallic layers account for the flexible risers' structural strength and are dimensioned according to the static and dynamic loads. They are usually installed in a free hanging catenary configuration and are subjected to the direct action of waves and marine currents and wave induced motions from the oil production platform. The fatigue rupture of wire armours in the end fitting or within the riser segment protected by the bend stiffener is an object of major concern. Integrity models have been developed, however inspection techniques are mandatory to ensure that failure is detected. Gammagraphy has been used as a common inspection technique in all regions of the flexible riser, mainly with the single wall-single view method. On the other side, there is not any qualified radiographic procedure to this kind of structure. Radiographic simulation was adopted and its validation with actual gammagraphies and establishment of radiographic parameters to complex radiation geometries were done. Results show the viability of the radiographic inspection analyzing the armour wires' rupture and the displacement between wires.

  20. RELIABLE RADIOGRAPHIC INSPECTION OF FLEXIBLE RISERS FOR THE OIL INDUSTRY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, Romulo M.; Rebello, Joao Marcos A.; Vaz, Murilo A.

    2010-01-01

    Flexible risers are composite tubular structures manufactured by the concentric assemblage of cylindrical polymeric and helically wound metallic layers employed to convey pressurized fluids such as oil, gas and water in the ocean environment. The metallic layers account for the flexible risers' structural strength and are dimensioned according to the static and dynamic loads. They are usually installed in a free hanging catenary configuration and are subjected to the direct action of waves and marine currents and wave induced motions from the oil production platform. The fatigue rupture of wire armours in the end fitting or within the riser segment protected by the bend stiffener is an object of major concern. Integrity models have been developed, however inspection techniques are mandatory to ensure that failure is detected. Gammagraphy has been used as a common inspection technique in all regions of the flexible riser, mainly with the single wall-single view method. On the other side, there is not any qualified radiographic procedure to this kind of structure. Radiographic simulation was adopted and its validation with actual gammagraphies and establishment of radiographic parameters to complex radiation geometries were done. Results show the viability of the radiographic inspection analyzing the armour wires' rupture and the displacement between wires.

  1. Program integration of predictive maintenance with reliability centered maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strong, D.K. Jr; Wray, D.M.

    1990-01-01

    This paper addresses improving the safety and reliability of power plants in a cost-effective manner by integrating the recently developed reliability centered maintenance techniques with the traditional predictive maintenance techniques of nuclear power plants. The topics of the paper include a description of reliability centered maintenance (RCM), enhancing RCM with predictive maintenance, predictive maintenance programs, condition monitoring techniques, performance test techniques, the mid-Atlantic Reliability Centered Maintenance Users Group, test guides and the benefits of shared guide development

  2. Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

    2017-08-21

    Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

  3. Flexibility and reliability in long-term planning exercises dedicated to the electricity sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maizi, Nadia; Drouineau, Mathilde; Assoumou, Edi; Mazauric, Vincent

    2010-09-15

    Long-term planning models are useful to build plausible options for future energy systems and must consequently address the technological feasibility and associated cost of these options. This paper focuses on the electricity sector and on problems of flexibility and reliability in power systems in order to improve results provided by long-term planning exercises: flexibility needs are integrated as an additional criterion for new investment decisions and, reliability requirements are assessed through the level of electrical losses they induced and a related cost. These approaches are implemented in a long-term planning model and demonstrated through a study of the Reunion Island.

  4. The Reliability of Lumbar Lordosis Measurements Using a Flexible-Rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this study was to examine the intra-rater and intra-rater reliability of lumbar lordosis measurements taken with a flexible-rule. Two...coefficients (ICC) were used to determine the degree of agreement between measurements. The results suggest that measurements of lumbar lordosis with a

  5. Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1995-01-01

    For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this study to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results are close to the actual data

  6. Time to competency, reliability of flexible transnasal laryngoscopy by training level: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, Christopher D; Platt, Michael P; Russell, Kimberly; Grillone, Gregory A; Aliphas, Avner; Noordzij, J Pieter

    2015-05-01

    To determine the progression of flexible transnasal laryngoscopy reliability and competency in otolaryngology residency training. Prospective case control study. Academic otolaryngology department. Medical students, otolaryngology residents, and otolaryngology attending physicians. Fourteen otolaryngology residents from PGY-1 to PGY-5 and 3 attending otolaryngologists viewed 25 selected and digitally recorded flexible transnasal laryngoscopies. The evaluators were asked to rate 13 items relating to abnormalities in the oropharynx, hypopharynx, larynx, and subglottis. The level of concern and level of comfort with the diagnosis were assessed. Intraclass correlations were calculated for each topic and by level of training to determine reliability within each class and compare competency versus attending interpretations. Intraclass correlation of residents compared to attending physicians demonstrated significant improvements by year for left and right vocal fold immobility, subglottic stenosis, laryngeal mass, left and right vocal cord abnormalities, and level of concern. Additionally, pooled vocal cord mobility and pooled results in categories with good attending reliability demonstrated stepwise improvement as well. For these categories, resident reliability was found to be statistically similar to attending physicians in all categories by PGY-3. There were no trends for base of tongue abnormalities, pharyngeal abnormalities, and pharyngeal and hypopharyngeal masses. Resident competency for flexible transnasal laryngoscopy progresses during residency to reliability with attending otolaryngologists by the PGY-3 year over key facets of the examination. © American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

  7. Prediction of safety critical software operational reliability from test reliability using testing environment factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1999-01-01

    It has been a critical issue to predict the safety critical software reliability in nuclear engineering area. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there have been many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is however on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, from testing to operation, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are developed in this paper and used to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data in testing phase. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results show that the proposed method can estimate the operational reliability accurately. (Author). 14 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  8. Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1985-08-01

    Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  9. Towards early software reliability prediction for computer forensic tools (case study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu Talib, Manar

    2016-01-01

    Versatility, flexibility and robustness are essential requirements for software forensic tools. Researchers and practitioners need to put more effort into assessing this type of tool. A Markov model is a robust means for analyzing and anticipating the functioning of an advanced component based system. It is used, for instance, to analyze the reliability of the state machines of real time reactive systems. This research extends the architecture-based software reliability prediction model for computer forensic tools, which is based on Markov chains and COSMIC-FFP. Basically, every part of the computer forensic tool is linked to a discrete time Markov chain. If this can be done, then a probabilistic analysis by Markov chains can be performed to analyze the reliability of the components and of the whole tool. The purposes of the proposed reliability assessment method are to evaluate the tool's reliability in the early phases of its development, to improve the reliability assessment process for large computer forensic tools over time, and to compare alternative tool designs. The reliability analysis can assist designers in choosing the most reliable topology for the components, which can maximize the reliability of the tool and meet the expected reliability level specified by the end-user. The approach of assessing component-based tool reliability in the COSMIC-FFP context is illustrated with the Forensic Toolkit Imager case study.

  10. Conformal prediction for reliable machine learning theory, adaptations and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Balasubramanian, Vineeth; Vovk, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detecti

  11. Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung

    1995-02-01

    Software reliability is especially important to customers these days. The need to quantify software reliability of safety-critical systems has been received very special attention and the reliability is rated as one of software's most important attributes. Since the software is an intellectual product of human activity and since it is logically complex, the failures are inevitable. No standard models have been established to prove the correctness and to estimate the reliability of software systems by analysis and/or testing. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factor comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this work to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factor Test reliability can also be estimated with this approach without any model change. The application results are close to the actual data. The approach used in this thesis is expected to be applicable to ultra high reliable software systems that are used in nuclear power plants, airplanes, and other safety-critical applications

  12. Flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphrey, L. Dennis

    1981-01-01

    Flexibility is an important aspect of all sports and recreational activities. Flexibility can be developed and maintained by stretching exercises. Exercises designed to develop flexibility in ankle joints, knees, hips, and the lower back are presented. (JN)

  13. Improvement of mechanical reliability by patterned silver/Indium-Tin-Oxide structure for flexible electronic devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Kyunghyun; Jang, Kyungsoo; Lee, Youn-Jung; Ryu, Kyungyul; Choi, Woojin; Kim, Doyoung; Yi, Junsin

    2013-01-01

    We report the effect of silver (Ag)-buffer layer Indium-Tin-Oxide (ITO) film on a polyethylene terephthalate substrate on the electrical, optical and reliable properties for transparent–flexible displays. The electrical and optical characteristics of an ITO-only film and an Ag-layer-inserted ITO film are measured and compared to assess the applicability of the triple layered structure in flexible displays. The sheet resistance, the resistivity and the light transmittance of the ITO-only film were 400 Ω/sq, 1.33 × 10 −3 Ω-cm and 99.2%, while those of the ITO film inserted with a 10 nm thick Ag layer were 165 Ω/sq, 4.78 × 10 −4 Ω-cm and about 97%, respectively. To evaluate the mechanical reliability of the different ITO films, bending tests were carried out. After the dynamic bending test of 900 cycles, the sheet resistance of the ITO film inserted with the Ag layer changed from 154 Ω/sq to 475 Ω/sq, about a 3-time increase but that of the ITO-only film changed from 400 Ω/sq to 61,986 Ω/sq, about 150-time increase. When the radius is changed from 25 mm to 20 mm in the static bending test, the sheet resistance of the ITO-only film changed from 400 to 678.3 linearly whereas that of the Ag-layer inserted ITO film changed a little from 154.4 to 154.9. These results show that Ag-layer inserted ITO film had better mechanical characteristics than the ITO-only film. - Highlights: ► Transparent flexible electrode fabricated on glass substrate. ► Electrode fabricated using vertically-patterned design on glass substrate. ► Optimization of the vertical patterns ► Application of the vertically-patterned electrode in transparent–flexible electronics

  14. Prediction of Software Reliability using Bio Inspired Soft Computing Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diwaker, Chander; Tomar, Pradeep; Poonia, Ramesh C; Singh, Vijander

    2018-04-10

    A lot of models have been made for predicting software reliability. The reliability models are restricted to using particular types of methodologies and restricted number of parameters. There are a number of techniques and methodologies that may be used for reliability prediction. There is need to focus on parameters consideration while estimating reliability. The reliability of a system may increase or decreases depending on the selection of different parameters used. Thus there is need to identify factors that heavily affecting the reliability of the system. In present days, reusability is mostly used in the various area of research. Reusability is the basis of Component-Based System (CBS). The cost, time and human skill can be saved using Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) concepts. CBSE metrics may be used to assess those techniques which are more suitable for estimating system reliability. Soft computing is used for small as well as large-scale problems where it is difficult to find accurate results due to uncertainty or randomness. Several possibilities are available to apply soft computing techniques in medicine related problems. Clinical science of medicine using fuzzy-logic, neural network methodology significantly while basic science of medicine using neural-networks-genetic algorithm most frequently and preferably. There is unavoidable interest shown by medical scientists to use the various soft computing methodologies in genetics, physiology, radiology, cardiology and neurology discipline. CBSE boost users to reuse the past and existing software for making new products to provide quality with a saving of time, memory space, and money. This paper focused on assessment of commonly used soft computing technique like Genetic Algorithm (GA), Neural-Network (NN), Fuzzy Logic, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). This paper presents working of soft computing

  15. Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, S.; Lu, H.; Kolarik, W.J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a technique for predicting system performance reliability in real-time considering multiple failure modes. The technique includes on-line multivariate monitoring and forecasting of selected performance measures and conditional performance reliability estimates. The performance measures across time are treated as a multivariate time series. A state-space approach is used to model the multivariate time series. Recursive forecasting is performed by adopting Kalman filtering. The predicted mean vectors and covariance matrix of performance measures are used for the assessment of system survival/reliability with respect to the conditional performance reliability. The technique and modeling protocol discussed in this paper provide a means to forecast and evaluate the performance of an individual system in a dynamic environment in real-time. The paper also presents an example to demonstrate the technique

  16. Performance reliability prediction for thermal aging based on kalman filtering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Wen Zhenhua; Xue Fei; Zhao Wensheng

    2015-01-01

    The performance reliability of the nuclear power plant main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging was studied by the performance degradation theory. Firstly, through the data obtained from the accelerated thermal aging experiments, the degradation process of the impact strength and fracture toughness of austenitic stainless steel material of the main pipeline was analyzed. The time-varying performance degradation model based on the state space method was built, and the performance trends were predicted by using Kalman filtering. Then, the multi-parameter and real-time performance reliability prediction model for the main pipeline thermal aging was developed by considering the correlation between the impact properties and fracture toughness, and by using the stochastic process theory. Thus, the thermal aging performance reliability and reliability life of the main pipeline with multi-parameter were obtained, which provides the scientific basis for the optimization management of the aging maintenance decision making for nuclear power plant main pipelines. (authors)

  17. Study of redundant Models in reliability prediction of HXMT's HES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jinming; Liu Congzhan; Zhang Zhi; Ji Jianfeng

    2010-01-01

    Two redundant equipment structures of HXMT's HES are proposed firstly, the block backup and dual system cold-redundancy. Then prediction of the reliability is made by using parts count method. Research of comparison and analysis is also performed on the two proposals. A conclusion is drawn that a higher reliability and longer service life could be offered by taking a redundant equipment structure of block backup. (authors)

  18. Exploiting protein flexibility to predict the location of allosteric sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panjkovich Alejandro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Allostery is one of the most powerful and common ways of regulation of protein activity. However, for most allosteric proteins identified to date the mechanistic details of allosteric modulation are not yet well understood. Uncovering common mechanistic patterns underlying allostery would allow not only a better academic understanding of the phenomena, but it would also streamline the design of novel therapeutic solutions. This relatively unexplored therapeutic potential and the putative advantages of allosteric drugs over classical active-site inhibitors fuel the attention allosteric-drug research is receiving at present. A first step to harness the regulatory potential and versatility of allosteric sites, in the context of drug-discovery and design, would be to detect or predict their presence and location. In this article, we describe a simple computational approach, based on the effect allosteric ligands exert on protein flexibility upon binding, to predict the existence and position of allosteric sites on a given protein structure. Results By querying the literature and a recently available database of allosteric sites, we gathered 213 allosteric proteins with structural information that we further filtered into a non-redundant set of 91 proteins. We performed normal-mode analysis and observed significant changes in protein flexibility upon allosteric-ligand binding in 70% of the cases. These results agree with the current view that allosteric mechanisms are in many cases governed by changes in protein dynamics caused by ligand binding. Furthermore, we implemented an approach that achieves 65% positive predictive value in identifying allosteric sites within the set of predicted cavities of a protein (stricter parameters set, 0.22 sensitivity, by combining the current analysis on dynamics with previous results on structural conservation of allosteric sites. We also analyzed four biological examples in detail, revealing

  19. Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

  20. A method of predicting the reliability of CDM coil insulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kytasty, A.; Ogle, C.; Arrendale, H.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a method of predicting the reliability of the Collider Dipole Magnet (CDM) coil insulation design. The method proposes a probabilistic treatment of electrical test data, stress analysis, material properties variability and loading uncertainties to give the reliability estimate. The approach taken to predict reliability of design related failure modes of the CDM is to form analytical models of the various possible failure modes and their related mechanisms or causes, and then statistically assess the contributions of the various contributing variables. The probability of the failure mode occurring is interpreted as the number of times one would expect certain extreme situations to combine and randomly occur. One of the more complex failure modes of the CDM will be used to illustrate this methodology

  1. Flexible, Secure, and Reliable Data Sharing Service Based on Collaboration in Multicloud Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Wei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the abundant storage resources and high reliability data service of cloud computing, more individuals and enterprises are motivated to outsource their data to public cloud platform and enable legal data users to search and download what they need in the outsourced dataset. However, in “Paid Data Sharing” model, some valuable data should be encrypted before outsourcing for protecting owner’s economic benefits, which is an obstacle for flexible application. Specifically, if the owner does not know who (user will download which data files in advance and even does not know the attributes of user, he/she has to either remain online all the time or import a trusted third party (TTP to distribute the file decryption key to data user. Obviously, making the owner always remain online is too inflexible, and wholly depending on the security of TTP is a potential risk. In this paper, we propose a flexible, secure, and reliable data sharing scheme based on collaboration in multicloud environment. For securely and instantly providing data sharing service even if the owner is offline and without TTP, we distribute all encrypted split data/key blocks together to multiple cloud service providers (CSPs, respectively. An elaborate cryptographic protocol we designed helps the owner verify the correctness of data exchange bills, which is directly related to the owner’s economic benefits. Besides, in order to support reliable data service, the erasure-correcting code technic is exploited for tolerating multiple failures among CSPs, and we offer a secure keyword search mechanism that makes the system more close to reality. Extensive security analyses and experiments on real-world data show that our scheme is secure and efficient.

  2. The reliability of flexible nasolaryngoscopy in the identification of vocal fold movement impairment in young infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi-Chun Carol; McElwee, Tyler; Musso, Mary; Rosenberg, Tara L; Ongkasuwan, Julina

    2017-09-01

    Flexible nasolaryngoscopy (FNL) is considered the gold standard for evaluation of vocal fold mobility but there has been no data on the reliability of interpretation in the infant population. Visualization may be limited by excessive movement, secretions, or floppy supraglottic structures that prevent accurate diagnosis of vocal fold movement impairment (VFMI). We sought to evaluate the inter- and intra-rater reliability of FNL for the evaluation of VFMI in young infants. Case-control. Twenty infants were identified: 10 with VFMI and 10 normal as seen on FNL. Three pediatric otolaryngologists reviewed the video without sound and rated the presence and/or degree of vocal fold mobility. Twelve videos were repeated to assess intra-rater reliability. There was substantial agreement between the reviewers regarding the identification normal vs. any type of VFMI (kappa = 0.67) but only moderate agreement regarding the degree of vocal fold movement (kappa = 0.49). Intra-rater reliability ranges from moderate to perfect agreement (kappa = 0.48-1). FNL in infants is an extremely challenging procedure. Clinically, physicians frequently use the quality of the cry and the past medical and surgical history to help make a judgment of vocal fold movement when the view is suboptimal. These other factors, however, may bias the interpretation of the FNL. Without sound, there is only moderate inter-rater and variable intra-rater reliability for the identification of degree of movement on FNL. Otolaryngologists must be cognizant of the limitations of FNL when using it as a clinical tool or as a "gold standard" against which other modalities are measured. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Diffusion tensor imaging fiber tracking with reliable tracking orientation and flexible step size☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Xufeng; Wang, Manning; Chen, Xinrong; Nie, Shengdong; Li, Zhexu; Xu, Xiaoping; Zhang, Xuelong; Song, Zhijian

    2013-01-01

    We propose a method of reliable tracking orientation and flexible step size fiber tracking. A new directional strategy was defined to select one optimal tracking orientation from each directional set, which was based on the single-tensor model and the two-tensor model. The directional set of planar voxels contained three tracking directions: two from the two-tensor model and one from the single-tensor model. The directional set of linear voxels contained only one principal vector. In addition, a flexible step size, rather than fixable step sizes, was implemented to improve the accuracy of fiber tracking. We used two sets of human data to assess the performance of our method; one was from a healthy volunteer and the other from a patient with low-grade glioma. Results verified that our method was superior to the single-tensor Fiber Assignment by Continuous Tracking and the two-tensor eXtended Streamline Tractography for showing detailed images of fiber bundles. PMID:25206444

  4. System reliability prediction using data from non-identical environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergman, B.; Ringi, M.

    1997-01-01

    Since information changes one's mind and probability assessments reflect one's degree of beliefs, a reliability prediction model should enclose all relevant information. Almost always ignored in existing reliability models is the dependence on component life lengths, induced by a common but unknown environment. Furthermore, existing models seldom permit learning from components' performance in similar systems, under the knowledge of non-identical operating environments. In an earlier paper by the present authors the first type of aspects were taken into account and in this paper that model is generalised so that failure data generated from several similar systems in non-identical environments may be used for the prediction of any similar system in its specific environment

  5. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  6. Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goriely, S.

    2015-01-01

    The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. In the present contribution, the reliability and accuracy of recent nuclear theories are discussed for most of the relevant quantities needed to estimate reaction cross sections and beta-decay rates, namely nuclear masses, nuclear level densities, gamma-ray strength, fission properties and beta-strength functions. It is shown that nowadays, mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenogical inputs in the prediction of nuclear data. While fundamental nuclear physicists keep on improving state-of-the-art models, e.g. within the shell model or ab initio models, nuclear applications could make use of their most recent results as quantitative constraints or guides to improve the predictions in energy or mass domain that will remain inaccessible experimentally. (orig.)

  7. Multi-state time-varying reliability evaluation of smart grid with flexible demand resources utilizing Lz transform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Heping; Jin, Wende; Ding, Yi; Song, Yonghua; Yu, Dezhao

    2017-01-01

    With the expanding proportion of renewable energy generation and development of smart grid technologies, flexible demand resources (FDRs) have been utilized as an approach to accommodating renewable energies. However, multiple uncertainties of FDRs may influence reliable and secure operation of smart grid. Multi-state reliability models for a single FDR and aggregating FDRs have been proposed in this paper with regard to responsive abilities for FDRs and random failures for both FDR devices and information system. The proposed reliability evaluation technique is based on Lz transform method which can formulate time-varying reliability indices. A modified IEEE-RTS has been utilized as an illustration of the proposed technique.

  8. Identifying and describing feelings and psychological flexibility predict mental health in men with HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landstra, Jodie M B; Ciarrochi, Joseph; Deane, Frank P; Hillman, Richard J

    2013-11-01

    Difficulty identifying and describing feelings (DIDF) and psychological flexibility (PF) predict poor emotional adjustment. To examine the relationship between DIDF and PF and whether DIDF and low PF would put men undergoing cancer screening at risk for poor adjustment. Longitudinal self-report survey. Two hundred and one HIV-infected men who have sex with men participated in anal cancer screening at two time points over 14 weeks. Psychological flexibility was assessed by the Acceptance and Action Questionnaire II and DIDF by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20. We also measured depression, anxiety, stress (DASS) and health-related quality of life (QOL; SF-12). Both DIDF and PF were reliable predictors of mental health. When levels of baseline mental health were controlled, greater DIDF predicted increases in Time 2 depression, anxiety and stress and decreases in mental and physical QOL. The link between PF and mental health was entirely mediated by DIDF. Being chronically low in PF could lead to greater DIDF and thereby worse mental health. Having more PF promotes the ability to identify and differentiate the nuances of pleasant and unpleasant emotions, which enhances an individual's mental health. Intentionally enhancing men's ability to identify and describe feelings or PF may assist them to better manage a range of difficult life experiences such as health screenings and other potentially threatening information. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

  9. Response prediction of long flexible risers subject to forced harmonic vibration

    OpenAIRE

    Riveros, Carlos Alberto; Utsunomiya, Tomoaki; Maeda, Katsuya; Itoh, Kazuaki

    2010-01-01

    Several research efforts have been directed toward the development of models for response prediction of flexible risers. The main difficulties arise from the fact that the dynamic response of flexible risers involves highly nonlinear behavior and a self-regulated process. This article presents a quasi-steady approach for response prediction of oscillating flexible risers. Amplitude-dependent lift coefficients are considered, as is an increased mean drag coefficient model during synchronizatio...

  10. Sustained selective attention predicts flexible switching in preschoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benitez, Viridiana L; Vales, Catarina; Hanania, Rima; Smith, Linda B

    2017-04-01

    Stability and flexibility are fundamental to an intelligent cognitive system. Here, we examined the relationship between stability in selective attention and explicit control of flexible attention. Preschoolers were tested on the Dimension Preference (DP) task, which measures the stability of selective attention to an implicitly primed dimension, and the Dimension Change Card Sort (DCCS) task, which measures flexible attention switching between dimensions. Children who successfully switched on the DCCS task were more likely than those who perseverated to sustain attention to the primed dimension on the DP task across trials. We propose that perseverators have less stable attention and distribute their attention between dimensions, whereas switchers can successfully stabilize attention to individual dimensions and, thus, show more enduring priming effects. Flexible attention may emerge, in part, from implicit processes that stabilize attention even in tasks not requiring switching. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Developing Predictive Maintenance Expertise to Improve Plant Equipment Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wurzbach, Richard N.

    2002-01-01

    On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of

  12. The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

    2018-03-01

    This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

  13. Reliably Modeling the Mechanical Stability of Rigid and Flexible Metal-Organic Frameworks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogge, Sven M J; Waroquier, Michel; Van Speybroeck, Veronique

    2018-01-16

    , however, it is unclear which set of properties are suited and reliable for a given application, as a comprehensive comparison for a broad variety of MOFs is absent, impeding the widespread use of these theoretical frameworks. Herein, we fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of the three computational models on a broad set of MOFs that are representative for current applications. These materials encompass the mechanically rigid UiO-66(Zr) and MOF-5(Zn) as well as the flexible MIL-47(V) and MIL-53(Al), which undergo pressure-induced phase transitions. It is observed that the Born stability criteria and pressure-versus-volume equations of state give complementary insight into the macroscopic and microscopic origins of instability, respectively. However, interpretation of the Born stability criteria becomes increasingly difficult when less symmetric materials are considered. Moreover, pressure fluctuations during the simulations hamper their accuracy for flexible materials. In contrast, the pressure-versus-volume equations of state are determined in a thermodynamic ensemble specifically targeted to mitigate the effects of these instantaneous fluctuations, yielding more accurate results. The critical Account presented here paves the way toward a solid computational framework for an extensive presynthetic screening of MOFs to select those that are mechanically stable and can be postsynthetically densified before their use in targeted applications.

  14. Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark Jay

    551. For the same reasons, the predicted and actual fatigue performance did not correlate well. The results of this study should not be considered a limitation of the life prediction algorithm but emphasize the requirement that ceramics be homogeneous and strength-limiting flaws uniformly distributed as a perquisite for accurate life prediction and reliability analyses.

  15. Reliability of dipstick assay in predicting urinary tract infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anith Kumar Mambatta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Urine dipstick analysis is a quick, cheap and a useful test in predicting Urinary Tract Infection (UTI in hospitalized patients. Our aim is to evaluate the reliability (sensitivity of urine dipstick analysis against urine culture in the diagnosis of UTI. Materials and Methods: Patients admitted to our hospital suspected of having UTI, with positive urine cultures were included in this study from a 2-year period (January 2011 to December 2012. Dipstick urinalysis was done using multistix 10 SG (Siemens and clinitek advantus analyzer. The sensitivity of dipstick nitrites, leukocyte esterase and blood in these culture-positive UTI patients was calculated retrospectively. Results: Urine dipstick analysis of 635 urine culture-positive patients was studied. The sensitivity of nitrite alone and leukocyte esterase alone were 23.31% and 48.5%, respectively. The sensitivity of blood alone in positive urine culture was 63.94%, which was the highest sensitivity for a single screening test. The presence of leukocyte esterase and/or blood increased the sensitivity to 72.28%. The sensitivity was found to be the highest when nitrite, leukocyte and blood were considered together. Conclusions: Nitrite test and leukocyte esterase test when used individually is not reliable to rule out UTI. Hence, symptomatic UTI patients with negative dipstick assay should be subjected to urine culture for a proper management.

  16. Reliability and validity of two self-report measures of cognitive flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnco, Carly; Wuthrich, Viviana M; Rapee, Ronald M

    2014-12-01

    Neuropsychological testing currently represents the gold standard in assessing cognitive flexibility. However, this format presents some challenges in terms of time and skills required for administration, scoring, and interpretation. Two self-report measures of cognitive flexibility have been developed to measure aspects of cognitive flexibility in everyday settings, although neither has been validated in an older sample. In this study, we investigated the psychometric properties of 2 self-report measures of cognitive flexibility, the Cognitive Flexibility Inventory (CFI; Dennis & Vander Wal, 2010) and the Cognitive Flexibility Scale (CFS; Martin & Rubin, 1995), against neuropsychological measures of cognitive flexibility in a clinical sample of 47 older adults with comorbid anxiety and depression and a nonclinical sample of 53 community-dwelling older adults. Internal consistency was good for the CFS and CFI in all samples. The clinical sample reported poorer cognitive flexibility than did the nonclinical sample on self-report measures and performed more poorly on some neuropsychological measures. There was evidence of convergent validity between the 2 self-report measures but little relationship between the self-report and neuropsychological measures of cognitive flexibility, suggesting that self-report measures assess a different aspect of cognitive flexibility than does neuropsychological testing. Divergent validity was weak from measures of anxiety and depression in the combined and nonclinical samples but acceptable in the clinical sample. Results suggest that these measures are suitable for use with an older adult sample but do not assess the same aspects of cognitive flexibility as are assessed by neuropsychological assessment. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  17. Characterization and Predictive Value of Segmental Curve Flexibility in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yao, Guanfeng; Cheung, Jason P Y; Shigematsu, Hideki

    2017-01-01

    STUDY DESIGN: A prospective radiographic analysis of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients managed with alternate-level pedicle screw fixation was performed. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to characterize segmental curve flexibility and to determine its predictive value...

  18. Perceived versus used workplace flexibility in Singapore: predicting work-family fit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Blake L; Scoville, D Phillip; Hill, E Jeffrey; Childs, Geniel; Leishman, Joan M; Nally, Kathryn S

    2008-10-01

    This study examined the relationship of 2 types of workplace flexibility to work-family fit and work, personal, and marriage-family outcomes using data (N = 1,601) representative of employed persons in Singapore. We hypothesized that perceived and used workplace flexibility would be positively related to the study variables. Results derived from structural equation modeling revealed that perceived flexibility predicted work-family fit; however, used flexibility did not. Work-family fit related positively to each work, personal, and marriage-family outcome; however, workplace flexibility only predicted work and personal outcomes. Findings suggest work-family fit may be an important facilitating factor in the interface between work and family life, relating directly to marital satisfaction and satisfaction in other family relationships. Implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Towards Accurate Prediction of Unbalance Response, Oil Whirl and Oil Whip of Flexible Rotors Supported by Hydrodynamic Bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Eling

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Journal bearings are used to support rotors in a wide range of applications. In order to ensure reliable operation, accurate analyses of these rotor-bearing systems are crucial. Coupled analysis of the rotor and the journal bearing is essential in the case that the rotor is flexible. The accuracy of prediction of the model at hand depends on its comprehensiveness. In this study, we construct three bearing models of increasing modeling comprehensiveness and use these to predict the response of two different rotor-bearing systems. The main goal is to evaluate the correlation with measurement data as a function of modeling comprehensiveness: 1D versus 2D pressure prediction, distributed versus lumped thermal model, Newtonian versus non-Newtonian fluid description and non-mass-conservative versus mass-conservative cavitation description. We conclude that all three models predict the existence of critical speeds and whirl for both rotor-bearing systems. However, the two more comprehensive models in general show better correlation with measurement data in terms of frequency and amplitude. Furthermore, we conclude that a thermal network model comprising temperature predictions of the bearing surroundings is essential to obtain accurate predictions. The results of this study aid in developing accurate and computationally-efficient models of flexible rotors supported by plain journal bearings.

  20. Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M.

    2008-01-01

    Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curve (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions

  1. Reliability prediction of engineering systems with competing failure modes due to component degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Young Kap

    2011-01-01

    Reliability of an engineering system depends on two reliability metrics: the mechanical reliability, considering component failures, that a functional system topology is maintained and the performance reliability of adequate system performance in each functional configuration. Component degradation explains not only the component aging processes leading to failure in function, but also system performance change over time. Multiple competing failure modes for systems with degrading components in terms of system functionality and system performance are considered in this paper with the assumption that system functionality is not independent of system performance. To reduce errors in system reliability prediction, this paper tries to extend system performance reliability prediction methods in open literature through combining system mechanical reliability from component reliabilities and system performance reliability. The extended reliability prediction method provides a useful way to compare designs as well as to determine effective maintenance policy for efficient reliability growth. Application of the method to an electro-mechanical system, as an illustrative example, is explained in detail, and the prediction results are discussed. Both mechanical reliability and performance reliability are compared to total system reliability in terms of reliability prediction errors

  2. Prediction of IRI in short and long terms for flexible pavements: ANN and GMDH methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziari, H.; Sobhani, J.; Ayoubinejad, J.; Hartmann, Timo

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of pavement condition is one of the most important issues in pavement management systems. In this paper, capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and group method of data handling (GMDH) methods in predicting flexible pavement conditions were analysed in three levels: in 1 year,

  3. Flexible nurse staffing based on hourly bed census predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kortbeek, Nikky; Braaksma, Aleida; Burger, C.A.J.; Bakker, P.J.M; Boucherie, Richardus J.

    2012-01-01

    Workload on nursing wards depends highly on patient arrivals and patient lengths of stay, which are both inherently variable. Predicting this workload and staffing nurses accordingly is essential for guaranteeing quality of care in a cost effective manner. This paper introduces a stochastic method

  4. Flexible nurse staffing based on hourly bed census predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kortbeek, Nikky; Braaksma, Aleida; Burger, C.A.J.; Bakker, P.J.M; Boucherie, Richardus J.

    Workloads in nursing wards depend highly on patient arrivals and lengths of stay, both of which are inherently variable. Predicting these workloads and staffing nurses accordingly are essential for guaranteeing quality of care in a cost-effective manner. This paper introduces a stochastic method

  5. A flexible latent class approach to estimating test-score reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Palm, D.W.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.

    2014-01-01

    The latent class reliability coefficient (LCRC) is improved by using the divisive latent class model instead of the unrestricted latent class model. This results in the divisive latent class reliability coefficient (DLCRC), which unlike LCRC avoids making subjective decisions about the best solution

  6. 78 FR 43198 - Flexible and Local Resources Needed for Reliability in the California Wholesale Electric Market...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-19

    ... auction impact the effectiveness of forward procurement for reliability purposes? Why or why not? 11:15 a... three-year forward resource adequacy obligation backed by a market-based CAISO backstop procurement... development of a durable, market-based mechanism to provide incentives to insure reliability needs are met...

  7. Prediction of performance and evaluation of flexible pavement rehabilitation strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang-Won Wayne Lee

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Five test sections with different additives and strategies were established to rehabilitate a State-maintained highway more effectively in Rhode Island (RI: control, calcium chloride, asphalt emulsion, Portland cement and geogrid. Resilient moduli of subgrade soils and subbase materials before and after full depth rehabilitation were employed as input parameters to predict the performance of pavement structures using AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design (Pavement ME software in terms of rutting, cracking and roughness. It was attempted to use Level 1 input (which includes traffic full spectrum data, climate data and structural layer properties for Pavement ME. Traffic data was obtained from a Weigh-in-Motion (WIM instrument and Providence station was used for collecting climatic data. Volumetric properties, dynamic modulus and creep compliance were used as input parameters for 19 mm (0.75 in. warm mix asphalt (WMA base and 12.5 mm (0.5 in. WMA surface layer. The results indicated that all test sections observed AC top-down (longitudinal cracking except Portland cement section which passed for all criteria. The order in terms of performance (best to worst for all test sections by Pavement ME was Portland cement, calcium chloride, control, geogrid, and asphalt emulsion. It was also observed that all test sections passed for both bottom up and top down fatigue cracking by increasing thickness of either of the two top asphalt layers. Test sections with five different base/subbase materials were evaluated in last two years through visual condition survey and measurements of deflection and roughness to confirm the prediction, but there was no serious distress and roughness. Thus these experiments allowed selecting the best rehabilitation/reconstruction techniques for the particular and/or similar highway, and a framework was formulated to select an optimal technique and/or strategy for future rehabilitation/reconstruction projects. Finally, guidelines for

  8. Reliability of a computer software angle tool for measuring spine and pelvic flexibility during the sit-and-reach test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mier, Constance M; Shapiro, Belinda S

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of a computer software angle tool that measures thoracic (T), lumbar (L), and pelvic (P) angles as a means of evaluating spine and pelvic flexibility during the sit-and-reach (SR) test. Thirty adults performed the SR twice on separate days. The SR test was captured on video and later analyzed for T, L, and P angles using the computer software angle tool. During the test, 3 markers were placed over T1, T12, and L5 vertebrae to identify T, L, and P angles. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) indicated a very high internal consistency (between trials) for T, L, and P angles (0.95-0.99); thus, the average of trials was used for test-retest (between days) reliability. Mean (±SD) values did not differ between days for T (51.0 ± 14.3 vs. 52.3 ± 16.2°), L (23.9 ± 7.1 vs. 23.0 ± 6.9°), or P (98.4 ± 15.6 vs. 98.3 ± 14.7°) angles. Test-retest reliability (ICC) was high for T (0.96) and P (0.97) angles and moderate for L angle (0.84). Both intrarater and interrater reliabilities were high for T (0.95, 0.94) and P (0.97, 0.97) angles and moderate for L angle (0.87, 0.82). Thus, the computer software angle tool is a highly objective method for assessing spine and pelvic flexibility during a video-captured SR test.

  9. A critique of reliability prediction techniques for avionics applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guru Prasad PANDIAN

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Avionics (aeronautics and aerospace industries must rely on components and systems of demonstrated high reliability. For this, handbook-based methods have been traditionally used to design for reliability, develop test plans, and define maintenance requirements and sustainment logistics. However, these methods have been criticized as flawed and leading to inaccurate and misleading results. In its recent report on enhancing defense system reliability, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has recently discredited these methods, judging the Military Handbook (MIL-HDBK-217 and its progeny as invalid and inaccurate. This paper discusses the issues that arise with the use of handbook-based methods in commercial and military avionics applications. Alternative approaches to reliability design (and its demonstration are also discussed, including similarity analysis, testing, physics-of-failure, and data analytics for prognostics and systems health management.

  10. Predictive and tempo-flexible synchronization to a visual metronome in monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeya, Ryuji; Kameda, Masashi; Patel, Aniruddh D; Tanaka, Masaki

    2017-07-21

    Predictive and tempo-flexible synchronization to an auditory beat is a fundamental component of human music. To date, only certain vocal learning species show this behaviour spontaneously. Prior research training macaques (vocal non-learners) to tap to an auditory or visual metronome found their movements to be largely reactive, not predictive. Does this reflect the lack of capacity for predictive synchronization in monkeys, or lack of motivation to exhibit this behaviour? To discriminate these possibilities, we trained monkeys to make synchronized eye movements to a visual metronome. We found that monkeys could generate predictive saccades synchronized to periodic visual stimuli when an immediate reward was given for every predictive movement. This behaviour generalized to novel tempi, and the monkeys could maintain the tempo internally. Furthermore, monkeys could flexibly switch from predictive to reactive saccades when a reward was given for each reactive response. In contrast, when humans were asked to make a sequence of reactive saccades to a visual metronome, they often unintentionally generated predictive movements. These results suggest that even vocal non-learners may have the capacity for predictive and tempo-flexible synchronization to a beat, but that only certain vocal learning species are intrinsically motivated to do it.

  11. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  12. Reliability and validity of food portion size estimation from images using manual flexible digital virtual meshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    The eButton takes frontal images at 4 second intervals throughout the day. A three-dimensional (3D) manually administered wire mesh procedure has been developed to quantify portion sizes from the two-dimensional (2D) images. This paper reports a test of the interrater reliability and validity of use...

  13. Conceptual Software Reliability Prediction Models for Nuclear Power Plant Safety Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, G.; Lawrence, D.; Yu, H.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this project is to develop a method to predict the potential reliability of software to be used in a digital system instrumentation and control system. The reliability prediction is to make use of existing measures of software reliability such as those described in IEEE Std 982 and 982.2. This prediction must be of sufficient accuracy to provide a value for uncertainty that could be used in a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For the purposes of the project, reliability was defined to be the probability that the digital system will successfully perform its intended safety function (for the distribution of conditions under which it is expected to respond) upon demand with no unintended functions that might affect system safety. The ultimate objective is to use the identified measures to develop a method for predicting the potential quantitative reliability of a digital system. The reliability prediction models proposed in this report are conceptual in nature. That is, possible prediction techniques are proposed and trial models are built, but in order to become a useful tool for predicting reliability, the models must be tested, modified according to the results, and validated. Using methods outlined by this project, models could be constructed to develop reliability estimates for elements of software systems. This would require careful review and refinement of the models, development of model parameters from actual experience data or expert elicitation, and careful validation. By combining these reliability estimates (generated from the validated models for the constituent parts) in structural software models, the reliability of the software system could then be predicted. Modeling digital system reliability will also require that methods be developed for combining reliability estimates for hardware and software. System structural models must also be developed in order to predict system reliability based upon the reliability

  14. Prediction of flexible/rigid regions from protein sequences using k-spaced amino acid pairs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruan Jishou

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditionally, it is believed that the native structure of a protein corresponds to a global minimum of its free energy. However, with the growing number of known tertiary (3D protein structures, researchers have discovered that some proteins can alter their structures in response to a change in their surroundings or with the help of other proteins or ligands. Such structural shifts play a crucial role with respect to the protein function. To this end, we propose a machine learning method for the prediction of the flexible/rigid regions of proteins (referred to as FlexRP; the method is based on a novel sequence representation and feature selection. Knowledge of the flexible/rigid regions may provide insights into the protein folding process and the 3D structure prediction. Results The flexible/rigid regions were defined based on a dataset, which includes protein sequences that have multiple experimental structures, and which was previously used to study the structural conservation of proteins. Sequences drawn from this dataset were represented based on feature sets that were proposed in prior research, such as PSI-BLAST profiles, composition vector and binary sequence encoding, and a newly proposed representation based on frequencies of k-spaced amino acid pairs. These representations were processed by feature selection to reduce the dimensionality. Several machine learning methods for the prediction of flexible/rigid regions and two recently proposed methods for the prediction of conformational changes and unstructured regions were compared with the proposed method. The FlexRP method, which applies Logistic Regression and collocation-based representation with 95 features, obtained 79.5% accuracy. The two runner-up methods, which apply the same sequence representation and Support Vector Machines (SVM and Naïve Bayes classifiers, obtained 79.2% and 78.4% accuracy, respectively. The remaining considered methods are

  15. Test-Retest Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Implicit Association Test in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae, James R.; Olson, Kristina R.

    2018-01-01

    The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many…

  16. A common reference population from four European Holstein populations increases reliability of genomic predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens Sandø; de Ross, Sander PW; de Vries, Alfred G

    2011-01-01

    Background Size of the reference population and reliability of phenotypes are crucial factors influencing the reliability of genomic predictions. It is therefore useful to combine closely related populations. Increased accuracies of genomic predictions depend on the number of individuals added to...

  17. Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

    CERN Document Server

    El Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

  18. Stabilizing model predictive control of a gantry crane based on flexible set-membership constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iles, Sandor; Lazar, M.; Kolonic, Fetah; Jadranko, Matusko

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a stabilizing distributed model predictive control of a gantry crane taking into account the variation of cable length. The proposed algorithm is based on the off-line computation of a sequence of 1-step controllable sets and a condition that enables flexible convergence towards

  19. Increase of operational reliability and durability of square sectoral working bodies of flexible screw conveyors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.L. Lyashuk

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The construction of the device for guiding screw sectional working bodies of increased operational reliability and durability and the method of determination of the force of guiding the design parameters are given. Two main methods of manufacturing screw mechanisms of machines of various service purposes were investigated and it was established that twisted screws, in terms of their strength and performance, considerably exceed rolling stock. The design of the device for manufacturing screw working bodies of conveyors by means of cutting by periodic and continuous methods, as the most reliable in operation, is developed. The specifics of their work are due to various operations of technological processes, as well as physical and mechanical properties of goods, determine the nomenclature and design parameters of screw mechanisms (SM. In studying the processes of forming screw spirals, the basic precision characteristics of the methods of drilling and rolling are established. A comparative study of two main methods in terms of their operational and durable capabilities has been carried out. An important factor determining the reliability and durability of a screw is the difference in the thickness of the inner and outer edges.

  20. Engineering Design Handbook: Development Guide for Reliability. Part Three. Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    to t is pa(t)=l-qa(t) (10-6) This is the reliability of being closed, defined for this interval. 2 The probability that a contact viH be open...Monte Carlo simulation. Few people can know all about all available programs. Special- ists can assist in selecting a few from the avail- able many

  1. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

  2. Methods to compute reliabilities for genomic predictions of feed intake

    Science.gov (United States)

    For new traits without historical reference data, cross-validation is often the preferred method to validate reliability (REL). Time truncation is less useful because few animals gain substantial REL after the truncation point. Accurate cross-validation requires separating genomic gain from pedigree...

  3. Modular battery design for reliable, flexible and multi-technology energy storage systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothgang, Susanne; Baumhöfer, Thorsten; Hoek, Hauke van; Lange, Tobias; De Doncker, Rik W.; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Collection of existing battery topologies in electric vehicles. • Analysis of load profiles and the power consumption for electric vehicles. • Composition of battery packs and their passive components. • Modular, hybrid battery architecture with a dc-link. - Abstract: With large scale battery systems being more and more used in demanding applications regarding lifetime, performance and safety, it is of great importance to utilize not only cells with a high cyclic and calendric lifetime but also to optimize the whole system architecture. The aim of this work is therefore, to highlight the benefits of a modular system architecture allowing the use of hybrid battery systems combining high power and high energy cells in a multi-technology system. To achieve an optimized performance, efficiency and lifetime for an electric vehicle the complete drive train topology has to be taken into account instead of optimizing one of the components individually. Consequently, the topic will be analyzed from the system’s point of view, addressing in particular the modularization of the battery as well as the power electronics needed to do so. It will be shown that a highly flexible battery system can be realized by dc-to-dc converters between a modular, hybrid battery system and the drive inverter. By the dc-to-dc converters the battery output voltages and the inverter input voltages are decoupled. Hence, the battery’s topology can be chosen unrestrictedly within a wide range and easily be interconnected to a common dc-link of a different voltage. The benefits of this flexibility will be analyzed in detail showing especially how the lifetime of the battery system can be improved and the impact on system weight

  4. Human reliability: an evaluation of its understanding and prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joksimovich, V.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a viewpoint on the state-of-the-art in human reliability. The bases for this viewpoint are, by and large, research projects conducted by the NUS for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) primarily with the objective of further enhancing the credibility of PRA methodology. The presentation is divided into the following key sections: Background and Overview, Methodology and Data Base with emphasis on the simulator data base

  5. Crystal structure prediction of flexible molecules using parallel genetic algorithms with a standard force field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seonah; Orendt, Anita M; Ferraro, Marta B; Facelli, Julio C

    2009-10-01

    This article describes the application of our distributed computing framework for crystal structure prediction (CSP) the modified genetic algorithms for crystal and cluster prediction (MGAC), to predict the crystal structure of flexible molecules using the general Amber force field (GAFF) and the CHARMM program. The MGAC distributed computing framework includes a series of tightly integrated computer programs for generating the molecule's force field, sampling crystal structures using a distributed parallel genetic algorithm and local energy minimization of the structures followed by the classifying, sorting, and archiving of the most relevant structures. Our results indicate that the method can consistently find the experimentally known crystal structures of flexible molecules, but the number of missing structures and poor ranking observed in some crystals show the need for further improvement of the potential. Copyright 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

    1978-01-01

    A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

  7. Reliability prediction for structures under cyclic loads and recurring inspections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto W. S. Mello Jr

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a methodology for determining the reliability of fracture control plans for structures subjected to cyclic loads. It considers the variability of the parameters involved in the problem, such as initial flaw and crack growth curve. The probability of detection (POD curve of the field non-destructive inspection method and the condition/environment are used as important factors for structural confidence. According to classical damage tolerance analysis (DTA, inspection intervals are based on detectable crack size and crack growth rate. However, all variables have uncertainties, which makes the final result totally stochastic. The material properties, flight loads, engineering tools and even the reliability of inspection methods are subject to uncertainties which can affect significantly the final maintenance schedule. The present methodology incorporates all the uncertainties in a simulation process, such as Monte Carlo, and establishes a relationship between the reliability of the overall maintenance program and the proposed inspection interval, forming a “cascade” chart. Due to the scatter, it also defines the confidence level of the “acceptable” risk. As an example, the damage tolerance analysis (DTA results are presented for the upper cockpit longeron splice bolt of the BAF upgraded F-5EM. In this case, two possibilities of inspection intervals were found: one that can be characterized as remote risk, with a probability of failure (integrity nonsuccess of 1 in 10 million, per flight hour; and other as extremely improbable, with a probability of nonsuccess of 1 in 1 billion, per flight hour, according to aviation standards. These two results are compared with the classical military airplane damage tolerance requirements.

  8. Predicting sumoylation sites using support vector machines based on various sequence features, conformational flexibility and disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yavuz, Ahmet Sinan; Sezerman, Osman Ugur

    2014-01-01

    Sumoylation, which is a reversible and dynamic post-translational modification, is one of the vital processes in a cell. Before a protein matures to perform its function, sumoylation may alter its localization, interactions, and possibly structural conformation. Abberations in protein sumoylation has been linked with a variety of disorders and developmental anomalies. Experimental approaches to identification of sumoylation sites may not be effective due to the dynamic nature of sumoylation, laborsome experiments and their cost. Therefore, computational approaches may guide experimental identification of sumoylation sites and provide insights for further understanding sumoylation mechanism. In this paper, the effectiveness of using various sequence properties in predicting sumoylation sites was investigated with statistical analyses and machine learning approach employing support vector machines. These sequence properties were derived from windows of size 7 including position-specific amino acid composition, hydrophobicity, estimated sub-window volumes, predicted disorder, and conformational flexibility. 5-fold cross-validation results on experimentally identified sumoylation sites revealed that our method successfully predicts sumoylation sites with a Matthew's correlation coefficient, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy equal to 0.66, 73%, 98%, and 97%, respectively. Additionally, we have showed that our method compares favorably to the existing prediction methods and basic regular expressions scanner. By using support vector machines, a new, robust method for sumoylation site prediction was introduced. Besides, the possible effects of predicted conformational flexibility and disorder on sumoylation site recognition were explored computationally for the first time to our knowledge as an additional parameter that could aid in sumoylation site prediction.

  9. Reliability prediction system based on the failure rate model for electronic components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Woo; Lee, Hwa Ki

    2008-01-01

    Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. Among the reliability prediction methods are the statistical analysis based method, the similarity analysis method based on an external failure rate database, and the method based on the physics-of-failure model. In this study, we developed a system by which the reliability of electronic components can be predicted by creating a system for the statistical analysis method of predicting reliability most easily. The failure rate models that were applied are MILHDBK- 217F N2, PRISM, and Telcordia (Bellcore), and these were compared with the general purpose system in order to validate the effectiveness of the developed system. Being able to predict the reliability of electronic components from the stage of design, the system that we have developed is expected to contribute to enhancing the reliability of electronic components

  10. Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2015-01-01

    The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... understanding of climate impacts, such as how to improve coupled models from physics to fish and how to strengthen confidence in analysis of time series...

  11. Facile and Reliable in Situ Polymerization of Poly(Ethyl Cyanoacrylate)-Based Polymer Electrolytes toward Flexible Lithium Batteries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Yanyan; Chai, Jingchao; Du, Huiping; Duan, Yulong; Xie, Guangwen; Liu, Zhihong; Cui, Guanglei

    2017-03-15

    Polycyanoacrylate is a very promising matrix for polymer electrolyte, which possesses advantages of strong binding and high electrochemical stability owing to the functional nitrile groups. Herein, a facile and reliable in situ polymerization strategy of poly(ethyl cyanoacrylate) (PECA) based gel polymer electrolytes (GPE) via a high efficient anionic polymerization was introduced consisting of PECA and 4 M LiClO 4 in carbonate solvents. The in situ polymerized PECA gel polymer electrolyte achieved an excellent ionic conductivity (2.7 × 10 -3 S cm -1 ) at room temperature, and exhibited a considerable electrochemical stability window up to 4.8 V vs Li/Li + . The LiFePO 4 /PECA-GPE/Li and LiNi 1.5 Mn 0.5 O 4 /PECA-GPE/Li batteries using this in-situ-polymerized GPE delivered stable charge/discharge profiles, considerable rate capability, and excellent cycling performance. These results demonstrated this reliable in situ polymerization process is a very promising strategy to prepare high performance polymer electrolytes for flexible thin-film batteries, micropower lithium batteries, and deformable lithium batteries for special purpose.

  12. Performance Prediction Modelling for Flexible Pavement on Low Volume Roads Using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Makendran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction models for low volume village roads in India are developed to evaluate the progression of different types of distress such as roughness, cracking, and potholes. Even though the Government of India is investing huge quantum of money on road construction every year, poor control over the quality of road construction and its subsequent maintenance is leading to the faster road deterioration. In this regard, it is essential that scientific maintenance procedures are to be evolved on the basis of performance of low volume flexible pavements. Considering the above, an attempt has been made in this research endeavor to develop prediction models to understand the progression of roughness, cracking, and potholes in flexible pavements exposed to least or nil routine maintenance. Distress data were collected from the low volume rural roads covering about 173 stretches spread across Tamil Nadu state in India. Based on the above collected data, distress prediction models have been developed using multiple linear regression analysis. Further, the models have been validated using independent field data. It can be concluded that the models developed in this study can serve as useful tools for the practicing engineers maintaining flexible pavements on low volume roads.

  13. Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J.

    2000-09-01

    Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction

  14. Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J

    2000-09-01

    Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction.

  15. Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

    2007-01-01

    The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

  16. Reliability Prediction Approaches For Domestic Intelligent Electric Energy Meter Based on IEC62380

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Tong, Guanghua; Yang, Jincheng; Sun, Guodong; Han, Dongjun; Wang, Guixian

    2018-01-01

    The reliability of intelligent electric energy meter is a crucial issue considering its large calve application and safety of national intelligent grid. This paper developed a procedure of reliability prediction for domestic intelligent electric energy meter according to IEC62380, especially to identify the determination of model parameters combining domestic working conditions. A case study was provided to show the effectiveness and validation.

  17. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  18. Using Data Mining Approaches for Force Prediction of a Dynamically Loaded Flexible Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlechtingen, Meik; Achiche, Sofiane; Lourenco Costa, Tiago

    2014-01-01

    -deterministic excitation forces with different excitation frequencies and amplitudes. Additionally, the influence of the sampling frequency and sensor location on the model performance is investigated. The results obtained in this paper show that most data mining approaches can be used, when a certain degree of inaccuracy...... of freedom and a force transducer for validation and training. The models are trained using data obtained from applying a random excitation force on the flexible structure. The performance of the developed models is evaluated by analyzing the prediction capabilities based on a normalized prediction error...

  19. Supporting change processes in design: Complexity, prediction and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert, Claudia M. [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: cme26@cam.ac.uk; Keller, Rene [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: rk313@cam.ac.uk; Earl, Chris [Open University, Department of Design and Innovation, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: C.F.Earl@open.ac.uk; Clarkson, P. John [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: pjc10@cam.ac.uk

    2006-12-15

    Change to existing products is fundamental to design processes. New products are often designed through change or modification to existing products. Specific parts or subsystems are changed to similar ones whilst others are directly reused. Design by modification applies particularly to safety critical products where the reuse of existing working parts and subsystems can reduce cost and risk. However change is rarely a matter of just reusing or modifying parts. Changing one part can propagate through the entire design leading to costly rework or jeopardising the integrity of the whole product. This paper characterises product change based on studies in the aerospace and automotive industry and introduces tools to aid designers in understanding the potential effects of change. Two ways of supporting designers are described: probabilistic prediction of the effects of change and visualisation of change propagation through product connectivities. Change propagation has uncertainties which are amplified by the choices designers make in practice as they implement change. Change prediction and visualisation is discussed with reference to complexity in three areas of product development: the structural backcloth of connectivities in the existing product (and its processes), the descriptions of the product used in design and the actions taken to carry out changes.

  20. Adaptive Encoding of Outcome Prediction by Prefrontal Cortex Ensembles Supports Behavioral Flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Arco, Alberto; Park, Junchol; Wood, Jesse; Kim, Yunbok; Moghaddam, Bita

    2017-08-30

    The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is thought to play a critical role in behavioral flexibility by monitoring action-outcome contingencies. How PFC ensembles represent shifts in behavior in response to changes in these contingencies remains unclear. We recorded single-unit activity and local field potentials in the dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) of male rats during a set-shifting task that required them to update their behavior, among competing options, in response to changes in action-outcome contingencies. As behavior was updated, a subset of PFC ensembles encoded the current trial outcome before the outcome was presented. This novel outcome-prediction encoding was absent in a control task, in which actions were rewarded pseudorandomly, indicating that PFC neurons are not merely providing an expectancy signal. In both control and set-shifting tasks, dmPFC neurons displayed postoutcome discrimination activity, indicating that these neurons also monitor whether a behavior is successful in generating rewards. Gamma-power oscillatory activity increased before the outcome in both tasks but did not differentiate between expected outcomes, suggesting that this measure is not related to set-shifting behavior but reflects expectation of an outcome after action execution. These results demonstrate that PFC neurons support flexible rule-based action selection by predicting outcomes that follow a particular action. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Tracking action-outcome contingencies and modifying behavior when those contingencies change is critical to behavioral flexibility. We find that ensembles of dorsomedial prefrontal cortex neurons differentiate between expected outcomes when action-outcome contingencies change. This predictive mode of signaling may be used to promote a new response strategy at the service of behavioral flexibility. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378363-11$15.00/0.

  1. Fast mission reliability prediction for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, J.D.; Poole, J.; Chen, W.H.

    2013-01-01

    There is currently a significant interest in the use of autonomous vehicles in many industrial sectors. One such example is the ever increasing use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), particularly in military operations. This enables dangerous missions to be accomplished without risk to a pilot. UAVs also have potential civil applications which would require their certification and the demonstration that they are able to respond safety to any potential circumstances. The aircraft would therefore need to be capable of responding safely to the occurrence of component failures, the emergence of threats such as other aircraft in the neighboring airspace, and changing weather conditions. The likelihood that an aircraft will successfully complete any mission can be predicted using phased mission analysis techniques. The predicted mission unreliability can be updated in response to changing circumstances. In the event that the likelihood of mission failure becomes too high then changes have to be made to the mission plan. If these calculations could be carried out fast enough then the quantification procedure could be used to establish an acceptable response to any new conditions. With a view to using the methodology in the context described above, this paper investigates ways in which phased mission analysis can be improved to reduce the calculation time. The methodology improves the processing capability for a UAV phased mission analysis by taking into account the specific characteristics of the fault tree structures which provide the causes of phase failure for a UAV mission. It also carries out as much of the quantification as possible in advance of the mission plan being formulated

  2. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Morten

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score. Results An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. Conclusion The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0

  3. Reliable prediction of adsorption isotherms via genetic algorithm molecular simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LoftiKatooli, L; Shahsavand, A

    2017-01-01

    Conventional molecular simulation techniques such as grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) strictly rely on purely random search inside the simulation box for predicting the adsorption isotherms. This blind search is usually extremely time demanding for providing a faithful approximation of the real isotherm and in some cases may lead to non-optimal solutions. A novel approach is presented in this article which does not use any of the classical steps of the standard GCMC method, such as displacement, insertation, and removal. The new approach is based on the well-known genetic algorithm to find the optimal configuration for adsorption of any adsorbate on a structured adsorbent under prevailing pressure and temperature. The proposed approach considers the molecular simulation problem as a global optimization challenge. A detailed flow chart of our so-called genetic algorithm molecular simulation (GAMS) method is presented, which is entirely different from traditions molecular simulation approaches. Three real case studies (for adsorption of CO 2 and H 2 over various zeolites) are borrowed from literature to clearly illustrate the superior performances of the proposed method over the standard GCMC technique. For the present method, the average absolute values of percentage errors are around 11% (RHO-H 2 ), 5% (CHA-CO 2 ), and 16% (BEA-CO 2 ), while they were about 70%, 15%, and 40% for the standard GCMC technique, respectively.

  4. Increasing work-time influence: consequences for flexibility, variability, regularity and predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Garde, Anne Helene; Aust, Birgit; Diderichsen, Finn

    2012-01-01

    This quasi-experimental study investigated how an intervention aiming at increasing eldercare workers' influence on their working hours affected the flexibility, variability, regularity and predictability of the working hours. We used baseline (n = 296) and follow-up (n = 274) questionnaire data and interviews with intervention-group participants (n = 32). The work units in the intervention group designed their own intervention comprising either implementation of computerised self-scheduling (subgroup A), collection of information about the employees' work-time preferences by questionnaires (subgroup B), or discussion of working hours (subgroup C). Only computerised self-scheduling changed the working hours and the way they were planned. These changes implied more flexible but less regular working hours and an experience of less predictability and less continuity in the care of clients and in the co-operation with colleagues. In subgroup B and C, the participants ended up discussing the potential consequences of more work-time influence without actually implementing any changes. Employee work-time influence may buffer the adverse effects of shift work. However, our intervention study suggested that while increasing the individual flexibility, increasing work-time influence may also result in decreased regularity of the working hours and less continuity in the care of clients and co-operation with colleagues.

  5. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

    1993-08-01

    This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

  6. Vicinal 1H-1H NMR coupling constants from density functional theory as reliable tools for stereochemical analysis of highly flexible multichiral center molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Vallejo, Fabian; Fragoso-Serrano, Mabel; Suárez-Ortiz, Gloria Alejandra; Hernández-Rojas, Adriana C; Cerda-García-Rojas, Carlos M; Pereda-Miranda, Rogelio

    2011-08-05

    A protocol for stereochemical analysis, based on the systematic comparison between theoretical and experimental vicinal (1)H-(1)H NMR coupling constants, was developed and applied to a series of flexible compounds (1-8) derived from the 6-heptenyl-5,6-dihydro-2H-pyran-2-one framework. The method included a broad conformational search, followed by geometry optimization at the DFT B3LYP/DGDZVP level, calculation of the vibrational frequencies, thermochemical parameters, magnetic shielding tensors, and the total NMR spin-spin coupling constants. Three scaling factors, depending on the carbon atom hybridizations, were found for the (1)H-C-C-(1)H vicinal coupling constants: f((sp3)-(sp3)) = 0.910, f((sp3)-(sp2)) = 0.929, and f((sp2)-(sp2))= 0.977. A remarkable correlation between the theoretical (J(pre)) and experimental (1)H-(1)H NMR (J(exp)) coupling constants for spicigerolide (1), a cytotoxic natural product, and some of its synthetic stereoisomers (2-4) demonstrated the predictive value of this approach for the stereochemical assignment of highly flexible compounds containing multiple chiral centers. The stereochemistry of two natural 6-heptenyl-5,6-dihydro-2H-pyran-2-ones (14 and 15) containing diverse functional groups in the heptenyl side chain was also analyzed by application of this combined theoretical and experimental approach, confirming its reliability. Additionally, a geometrical analysis for the conformations of 1-8 revealed that weak hydrogen bonds substantially guide the conformational behavior of the tetraacyloxy-6-heptenyl-2H-pyran-2-ones.

  7. Flexible Use of Predictive Cues beyond the Orbitofrontal Cortex: Role of the Submedius Thalamic Nucleus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcaraz, Fabien; Marchand, Alain R; Vidal, Elisa; Guillou, Alexandre; Faugère, Angélique; Coutureau, Etienne; Wolff, Mathieu

    2015-09-23

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is known to play a crucial role in learning the consequences of specific events. However, the contribution of OFC thalamic inputs to these processes is largely unknown. Using a tract-tracing approach, we first demonstrated that the submedius nucleus (Sub) shares extensive reciprocal connections with the OFC. We then compared the effects of excitotoxic lesions of the Sub or the OFC on the ability of rats to use outcome identity to direct responding. We found that neither OFC nor Sub lesions interfered with the basic differential outcomes effect. However, more specific tests revealed that OFC rats, but not Sub rats, were disproportionally relying on the outcome, rather than on the discriminative stimulus, to guide behavior, which is consistent with the view that the OFC integrates information about predictive cues. In subsequent experiments using a Pavlovian contingency degradation procedure, we found that both OFC and Sub lesions produced a severe deficit in the ability to update Pavlovian associations. Altogether, the submedius therefore appears as a functionally relevant thalamic component in a circuit dedicated to the integration of predictive cues to guide behavior, previously conceived as essentially dependent on orbitofrontal functions. Significance statement: In the present study, we identify a largely unknown thalamic region, the submedius nucleus, as a new functionally relevant component in a circuit supporting the flexible use of predictive cues. Such abilities were previously conceived as largely dependent on the orbitofrontal cortex. Interestingly, this echoes recent findings in the field showing, in research involving an instrumental setup, an additional involvement of another thalamic nuclei, the parafascicular nucleus, when correct responding requires an element of flexibility (Bradfield et al., 2013a). Therefore, the present contribution supports the emerging view that limbic thalamic nuclei may contribute critically to

  8. Pseudoracemic amino acid complexes: blind predictions for flexible two-component crystals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Görbitz, Carl Henrik; Dalhus, Bjørn; Day, Graeme M

    2010-08-14

    Ab initio prediction of the crystal packing in complexes between two flexible molecules is a particularly challenging computational chemistry problem. In this work we present results of single crystal structure determinations as well as theoretical predictions for three 1 ratio 1 complexes between hydrophobic l- and d-amino acids (pseudoracemates), known from previous crystallographic work to form structures with one of two alternative hydrogen bonding arrangements. These are accurately reproduced in the theoretical predictions together with a series of patterns that have never been observed experimentally. In this bewildering forest of potential polymorphs, hydrogen bonding arrangements and molecular conformations, the theoretical predictions succeeded, for all three complexes, in finding the correct hydrogen bonding pattern. For two of the complexes, the calculations also reproduce the exact space group and side chain orientations in the best ranked predicted structure. This includes one complex for which the observed crystal packing clearly contradicted previous experience based on experimental data for a substantial number of related amino acid complexes. The results highlight the significant recent advances that have been made in computational methods for crystal structure prediction.

  9. Optimization of reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for inertial navigation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Xiuhong; Duan, Fuhai; Tian, Heng; Wei, Xuedong

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this study is to propose a reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for a complex structure Inertial Navigation System (INS) with several redundant components. GO Methodology is applied to build the INS reliability analysis model—GO chart. Components Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and system reliability are updated dynamically based on the combination of components lifetime distribution function, stress samples, and the system GO chart. Considering the redundant design in INS, maintenance time is based not only on components RUL, but also (and mainly) on the timing of when system reliability fails to meet the set threshold. The definition of components maintenance priority balances three factors: components importance to system, risk degree, and detection difficulty. Maintenance Priority Number (MPN) is introduced, which may provide quantitative maintenance priority results for all components. A maintenance unit time cost model is built based on components MPN, components RUL predictive model and maintenance intervals for the optimization of maintenance scope. The proposed scheme can be applied to serve as the reference for INS maintenance. Finally, three numerical examples prove the proposed predictive maintenance scheme is feasible and effective. - Highlights: • A dynamic PdM with a rolling horizon is proposed for INS with redundant components. • GO Methodology is applied to build the system reliability analysis model. • A concept of MPN is proposed to quantify the maintenance sequence of components. • An optimization model is built to select the optimal group of maintenance components. • The optimization goal is minimizing the cost of maintaining system reliability

  10. A generic Approach for Reliability Predictions considering non-uniformly Deterioration Behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Jakob; Kabitzsch, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    Predictive maintenance offers the possibility to prognosticate the remaining time until a maintenance action of a machine has to be scheduled. Unfortunately, current predictive maintenance solutions are only suitable for very specific use cases like reliability predictions based on vibration monitoring. Furthermore, they do not consider the fact that machines may deteriorate non-uniformly, depending on external influences (e.g., the work piece material in a milling machine or the changing fruit acid concentration in a bottling plant). In this paper two concepts for a generic predictive maintenance solution which also considers non-uniformly aging behaviour are introduced. The first concept is based on system models representing the health state of a technical system. As these models are usually statically (viz. without a timely dimension) their coefficients are determined periodically and the resulting time series is used as aging indicator. The second concept focuses on external influences (contexts) which change the behaviour of the previous mentioned aging indicators in order to increase the accuracy of reliability predictions. Therefore, context-depended time series models are determined and used to predict machine reliability. Both concepts were evaluated on data of an air ventilation system. Thereby, it could be shown that they are suitable to determine aging indicators in a generic way and to incorporate external influences in the reliability prediction. Through this, the quality of reliability predictions can be significantly increased. In reality this leads to a more accurate scheduling of maintenance actions. Furthermore, the generic character of the solutions makes the concepts suitable for a wide range of aging processes.

  11. Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

    2018-03-01

    In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

  12. Urban water supply infrastructure planning under predictive groundwater uncertainty: Bayesian updating and flexible design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K.

    2017-12-01

    Many urban water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from increasing demands from population and economic growth in combination with uncertain water supply, driven by short-term climate variability and long-term climate change. These uncertainties are often exacerbated in groundwater-dependent water systems due to the extra difficulty in measuring groundwater storage, recharge, and sustainable yield. Groundwater models are typically under-parameterized due to the high data requirements for calibration and limited data availability, leading to uncertainty in the models' predictions. We develop an integrated approach to urban water supply planning that combines predictive groundwater uncertainty analysis with adaptive water supply planning using multi-stage decision analysis. This allows us to compare the value of collecting additional groundwater data and reducing predictive uncertainty with the value of using water infrastructure planning that is flexible, modular, and can react quickly in response to unexpected changes in groundwater availability. We apply this approach to a case from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh relies on fossil groundwater aquifers and desalination for urban use. The main fossil aquifers incur minimal recharge and face depletion as a result of intense withdrawals for urban and agricultural use. As the water table declines and pumping becomes uneconomical, Riyadh will have to build new supply infrastructure, decrease demand, or increase the efficiency of its distribution system. However, poor groundwater characterization has led to severe uncertainty in aquifer parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, and therefore severe uncertainty in how the water table will respond to pumping over time and when these transitions will be necessary: the potential depletion time varies from approximately five years to 100 years. This case is an excellent candidate for flexible planning both because of its severity and the potential for

  13. A Reliable and Valid Survey to Predict a Patient’s Gagging Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casey M. Hearing

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to devise a reliable and valid survey to predict the intensity of someone’s gag reflex. Material and Methods: A 10-question Predictive Gagging Survey was created, refined, and tested on 59 undergraduate participants. The questions focused on risk factors and experiences that would indicate the presence and strength of someone’s gag reflex. Reliability was assessed by administering the survey to a group of 17 participants twice, with 3 weeks separating the two administrations. Finally, the survey was given to 25 dental patients. In these cases, patients completed an informed consent form, filled out the survey, and then had a maxillary impression taken while their gagging response was quantified from 1 to 5 on the Fiske and Dickinson Gagging Intensity Index. Results: There was a moderate positive correlation between the Predictive Gagging Survey and Fiske and Dickinson’s Gagging Severity Index, r = +0.64, demonstrating the survey’s validity. Furthermore, the test-retest reliability was r = +0.96, demonstrating the survey’s reliability. Conclusions: The Predictive Gagging Survey is a 10-question survey about gag-related experiences and behaviours. We established that it is a reliable and valid method to assess the strength of someone’s gag reflex.

  14. Flexible non-linear predictive models for large-scale wind turbine diagnostics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach-Andersen, Martin; Rømer-Odgaard, Bo; Winther, Ole

    2017-01-01

    We demonstrate how flexible non-linear models can provide accurate and robust predictions on turbine component temperature sensor data using data-driven principles and only a minimum of system modeling. The merits of different model architectures are evaluated using data from a large set...... of turbines operating under diverse conditions. We then go on to test the predictive models in a diagnostic setting, where the output of the models are used to detect mechanical faults in rotor bearings. Using retrospective data from 22 actual rotor bearing failures, the fault detection performance...... of the models are quantified using a structured framework that provides the metrics required for evaluating the performance in a fleet wide monitoring setup. It is demonstrated that faults are identified with high accuracy up to 45 days before a warning from the hard-threshold warning system....

  15. A mechanically enhanced hybrid nano-stratified barrier with a defect suppression mechanism for highly reliable flexible OLEDs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Eun Gyo; Kwon, Seonil; Han, Jun Hee; Im, Hyeon-Gyun; Bae, Byeong-Soo; Choi, Kyung Cheol

    2017-05-18

    Understanding the mechanical behaviors of encapsulation barriers under bending stress is important when fabricating flexible organic light-emitting diodes (FOLEDs). The enhanced mechanical characteristics of a nano-stratified barrier were analyzed based on a defect suppression mechanism, and then experimentally demonstrated. Following the Griffith model, naturally-occurring cracks, which were caused by Zn etching at the interface of the nano-stratified structure, can curb the propagation of defects. Cross-section images after bending tests provided remarkable evidence to support the existence of a defect suppression mechanism. Many visible cracks were found in a single Al 2 O 3 layer, but not in the nano-stratified structure, due to the mechanism. The nano-stratified structure also enhanced the barrier's physical properties by changing the crystalline phase of ZnO. In addition, experimental results demonstrated the effect of the mechanism in various ways. The nano-stratified barrier maintained a low water vapor transmission rate after 1000 iterations of a 1 cm bending radius test. Using this mechanically enhanced hybrid nano-stratified barrier, FOLEDs were successfully encapsulated without losing mechanical or electrical performance. Finally, comparative lifetime measurements were conducted to determine reliability. After 2000 hours of constant current driving and 1000 iterations with a 1 cm bending radius, the FOLEDs retained 52.37% of their initial luminance, which is comparable to glass-lid encapsulation, with 55.96% retention. Herein, we report a mechanically enhanced encapsulation technology for FOLEDs using a nano-stratified structure with a defect suppression mechanism.

  16. Reliable prediction and determination of Norwegian lamb carcass composition and value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kongsro, Jørgen

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of this work was to study prediction and determination of Norwegian lamb carcass composition with different techniques spanning from subjective appraisal to computer-intensive methods. There is an increasing demand, both from farmers and processors of meats, for a more objective and reliable system for prediction of muscle (lean meat), fat, bone and value of a lamb carcass. When introducing new technologies for determination of lamb carcass composition, the reference method used for calibration must be precise and reliable. The precision and reliability of the current dissection reference for lamb carcass classification and grading has never been quantified. A poor reference method will not benefit even the most optimal system for prediction and determination of lamb carcasses. To help achieve reliable systems, the uncertainty or errors in the reference method and measuring systems needs to be quantified. Using proper calibration methods for the measuring systems, the uncertainty and modeling power can be determined for lamb carcasses. The results of the work presented in this thesis show that the current classification system using subjective appraisal (EUROP) is reliable; however the accuracy with respect to carcass composition, especially for lean meat or muscle and carcass value, is poor. The reference method used for determining lamb carcass composition with respect to lamb carcass classification and grading is precise and reliable for carcass composition. For the composition and yield of sub-primal cuts, the reliability varied, and was especially poor for the breast cut. Further attention is needed for jointing and cutting of sub-primals to achieve even higher precision and reliability of the reference method. As an alternative to butcher or manual dissection, Computer Tomography (CT) showed promising results with respect to prediction of lamb carcass composition. This method is nicknamed “virtual dissection”. By utilizing the

  17. Reliability of computerized cephalometric outcome predictions of mandibular set-back surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanović Neda

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A successful treatment outcome in dentofacial deformity patients commonly requires combined orthodontic-surgical therapy. This enables us to overcome functional, aesthetic and psychological problems. Since most patients state aesthetics as the primary motive for seeking therapy, cephalometric predictions of treatment outcome have become the essential part of treatment planning, especially in combined orthodontic-surgical cases. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of computerized orthognathic surgery outcome predictions generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software. Methods. The sample of the study consisted of 31 patients diagnosed with mandibular prognathism who were surgically treated at the Hospital for Maxillofacial Surgery in Belgrade. Investigation was done on lateral cephalograms made before and after surgical treatment. Cephalograms were digitized and analyzed using computer software. According to measurements made on superimposed pre- and postsurgical cephalograms, the patients were retreated within the software and the predictions were assessed by measuring seven angular and three linear parameters. Prediction measurements were then compared with the actual outcome. Results. Results showed statistically significant changes between posttreatment and predicted values for parameters referring to lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position. Conclusion. Computerized cephalometric predictions for hard-tissue structures in the sagittal and vertical planes, as well as the VTO parameters, generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software are reliable, while lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position predictions are not reliable enough.

  18. Test-retest reliability and predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae, James R; Olson, Kristina R

    2018-02-01

    The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many factors simultaneously (lag-time between testing administrations, domain, etc.), it is difficult to discern what factors may explain variability in existing test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates. Across five studies (total N = 519; ages 6- to 11-years-old), we manipulated two factors that have varied in previous developmental research-lag-time and domain. An internal meta-analysis of these studies revealed that, across three different methods of analyzing the data, mean test-retest (rs of .48, .38, and .34) and predictive validity (rs of .46, .20, and .10) effect sizes were significantly greater than zero. While lag-time did not moderate the magnitude of test-retest coefficients, whether we observed domain differences in test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates was contingent on other factors, such as how we scored the IAT or whether we included estimates from a unique sample (i.e., a sample containing gender typical and gender diverse children). Recommendations are made for developmental researchers that utilize the IAT in their research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Towards accurate prediction of unbalance response, oil whirl and oil whip of flexible rotors supported by hydrodynamic bearings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eling, R.P.T.; te Wierik, M.; van Ostayen, R.A.J.; Rixen, D.J.

    2016-01-01

    Journal bearings are used to support rotors in a wide range of applications. In order to ensure reliable operation, accurate analyses of these rotor-bearing systems are crucial. Coupled analysis of the rotor and the journal bearing is essential in the case that the rotor is flexible. The accuracy of

  20. Development of equipment reliability process using predictive technologies at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, Yuji; Sakuragi, Futoshi; Hamada, Seiichi

    2014-01-01

    Development of equipment reliability(ER) process, specifically for predictive maintenance (PdM) technologies integrated condition based maintenance (CBM) process, at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station is introduced in this paper. Integration of predictive maintenance technologies such as vibration, oil analysis and thermo monitoring is more than important to establish strong maintenance strategies and to direct a specific technical development. In addition, a practical example of CBM is also presented to support the advantage of the idea. (author)

  1. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading

  2. Linear Interaction Energy Based Prediction of Cytochrome P450 1A2 Binding Affinities with Reliability Estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Capoferri

    Full Text Available Prediction of human Cytochrome P450 (CYP binding affinities of small ligands, i.e., substrates and inhibitors, represents an important task for predicting drug-drug interactions. A quantitative assessment of the ligand binding affinity towards different CYPs can provide an estimate of inhibitory activity or an indication of isoforms prone to interact with the substrate of inhibitors. However, the accuracy of global quantitative models for CYP substrate binding or inhibition based on traditional molecular descriptors can be limited, because of the lack of information on the structure and flexibility of the catalytic site of CYPs. Here we describe the application of a method that combines protein-ligand docking, Molecular Dynamics (MD simulations and Linear Interaction Energy (LIE theory, to allow for quantitative CYP affinity prediction. Using this combined approach, a LIE model for human CYP 1A2 was developed and evaluated, based on a structurally diverse dataset for which the estimated experimental uncertainty was 3.3 kJ mol-1. For the computed CYP 1A2 binding affinities, the model showed a root mean square error (RMSE of 4.1 kJ mol-1 and a standard error in prediction (SDEP in cross-validation of 4.3 kJ mol-1. A novel approach that includes information on both structural ligand description and protein-ligand interaction was developed for estimating the reliability of predictions, and was able to identify compounds from an external test set with a SDEP for the predicted affinities of 4.6 kJ mol-1 (corresponding to 0.8 pKi units.

  3. Self-motivated visual scanning predicts flexible navigation in a virtual environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabeth Jeannette Ploran

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to navigate flexibly (e.g., reorienting oneself based on distal landmarks to reach a learned target from a new position may rely on visual scanning during both initial experiences with the environment and subsequent test trials. Reliance on visual scanning during navigation harkens back to the concept of vicarious trial and error, a description of the side-to-side head movements made by rats as they explore previously traversed sections of a maze in an attempt to find a reward. In the current study, we examined if visual scanning predicted the extent to which participants would navigate to a learned location in a virtual environment defined by its position relative to distal landmarks. Our results demonstrated a significant positive relationship between the amount of visual scanning and participant accuracy in identifying the trained target location from a new starting position as long as the landmarks within the environment remain consistent with the period of original learning. Our findings indicate that active visual scanning of the environment is a deliberative attentional strategy that supports the formation of spatial representations for flexible navigation.

  4. NEAT-FLEX: Predicting the conformational flexibility of amino acids using neuroevolution of augmenting topologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisci, Bruno; Dorn, Márcio

    2017-06-01

    The development of computational methods to accurately model three-dimensional protein structures from sequences of amino acid residues is becoming increasingly important to the structural biology field. This paper addresses the challenge of predicting the tertiary structure of a given amino acid sequence, which has been reported to belong to the NP-Complete class of problems. We present a new method, namely NEAT-FLEX, based on NeuroEvolution of Augmenting Topologies (NEAT) to extract structural features from (ABS) proteins that are determined experimentally. The proposed method manipulates structural information from the Protein Data Bank (PDB) and predicts the conformational flexibility (FLEX) of residues of a target amino acid sequence. This information may be used in three-dimensional structure prediction approaches as a way to reduce the conformational search space. The proposed method was tested with 24 different amino acid sequences. Evolving neural networks were compared against a traditional error back-propagation algorithm; results show that the proposed method is a powerful way to extract and represent structural information from protein molecules that are determined experimentally.

  5. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Bent; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl; Andersen, Pernille

    2009-01-01

    : The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability...... comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0.79 and 0.74 are obtained using our and the compared method, respectively. This tendency is true for any selected subset....

  6. Reliability: How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction, the (net) present value of reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, J.H.; Marais, K.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, we link an engineering concept, reliability, to a financial and managerial concept, net present value, by exploring the impact of a system's reliability on its revenue generation capability. The framework here developed for non-repairable systems quantitatively captures the value of reliability from a financial standpoint. We show that traditional present value calculations of engineering systems do not account for system reliability, thus over-estimate a system's worth and can therefore lead to flawed investment decisions. It is therefore important to involve reliability engineers upfront before investment decisions are made in technical systems. In addition, the analyses here developed help designers identify the optimal level of reliability that maximizes a system's net present value-the financial value reliability provides to the system minus the cost to achieve this level of reliability. Although we recognize that there are numerous considerations driving the specification of an engineering system's reliability, we contend that the financial analysis of reliability here developed should be made available to decision-makers to support in part, or at least be factored into, the system reliability specification

  7. Reliability Prediction Of System And Component Of Process System Of RSG-GAS Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitorus Pane, Jupiter

    2001-01-01

    The older the reactor the higher the probability of the system and components suffer from loss of function or degradation. This phenomenon occurred because of wear, corrosion, and fatigue. Study on component reliability was generally performed deterministically and statistically. This paper would describe an analysis of using statistical method, i.e. regression Cox, in order to predict the reliability of the components and their environmental influence's factors. The result showed that the dynamics, non safety related, and mechanic components have higher risk of failure, whereas static, safety related, and electric have lower risk of failures. The relative risk value for variable of components dynamics, quality, dummy 1 and dummy 2 are of 1.54, 1.59, 1.50, and 0.83 compare to other components type with each variable. Component with the higher risk have lower reliability than lower one

  8. Reliability of self-reported childhood physical abuse by adults and factors predictive of inconsistent reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Christy M; Harris, T Robert; Caetano, Raul

    2009-01-01

    Little is known about the reliability of self-reported child physical abuse (CPA) or CPA reporting practices. We estimated reliability and prevalence of self-reported CPA and identified factors predictive of inconsistent CPA reporting among 2,256 participants using surveys administered in 1995 and 2000. Reliability of CPA was fair to moderate (kappa = 0.41). Using a positive report from either survey, the prevalence of moderate (61.8%) and severe (12.0%) CPA was higher than at either survey alone. Compared to consistent reporters of having experienced CPA, inconsistent reporters were less likely to be > or = 30 years old (vs. 18-29) or Black (vs. White) and more likely to have report one type (vs. > or = 2) of CPA. These findings may assist researchers conducting and interpreting studies of CPA.

  9. Reliability and Validity of the Load-Velocity Relationship to Predict the 1RM Back Squat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, Kazunori; Haff, G Gregory

    2017-07-01

    Banyard, HG, Nosaka, K, and Haff, GG. Reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the 1RM back squat. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1897-1904, 2017-This study investigated the reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the free-weight back squat one repetition maximum (1RM). Seventeen strength-trained males performed three 1RM assessments on 3 separate days. All repetitions were performed to full depth with maximal concentric effort. Predicted 1RMs were calculated by entering the mean concentric velocity of the 1RM (V1RM) into an individualized linear regression equation, which was derived from the load-velocity relationship of 3 (20, 40, 60% of 1RM), 4 (20, 40, 60, 80% of 1RM), or 5 (20, 40, 60, 80, 90% of 1RM) incremental warm-up sets. The actual 1RM (140.3 ± 27.2 kg) was very stable between 3 trials (ICC = 0.99; SEM = 2.9 kg; CV = 2.1%; ES = 0.11). Predicted 1RM from 5 warm-up sets up to and including 90% of 1RM was the most reliable (ICC = 0.92; SEM = 8.6 kg; CV = 5.7%; ES = -0.02) and valid (r = 0.93; SEE = 10.6 kg; CV = 7.4%; ES = 0.71) of the predicted 1RM methods. However, all predicted 1RMs were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05; ES = 0.71-1.04) from the actual 1RM. Individual variation for the actual 1RM was small between trials ranging from -5.6 to 4.8% compared with the most accurate predictive method up to 90% of 1RM, which was more variable (-5.5 to 27.8%). Importantly, the V1RM (0.24 ± 0.06 m·s) was unreliable between trials (ICC = 0.42; SEM = 0.05 m·s; CV = 22.5%; ES = 0.14). The load-velocity relationship for the full depth free-weight back squat showed moderate reliability and validity but could not accurately predict 1RM, which was stable between trials. Thus, the load-velocity relationship 1RM prediction method used in this study cannot accurately modify sessional training loads because of large V1RM variability.

  10. Predictive networks: a flexible, open source, web application for integration and analysis of human gene networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haibe-Kains, Benjamin; Olsen, Catharina; Djebbari, Amira; Bontempi, Gianluca; Correll, Mick; Bouton, Christopher; Quackenbush, John

    2012-01-01

    Genomics provided us with an unprecedented quantity of data on the genes that are activated or repressed in a wide range of phenotypes. We have increasingly come to recognize that defining the networks and pathways underlying these phenotypes requires both the integration of multiple data types and the development of advanced computational methods to infer relationships between the genes and to estimate the predictive power of the networks through which they interact. To address these issues we have developed Predictive Networks (PN), a flexible, open-source, web-based application and data services framework that enables the integration, navigation, visualization and analysis of gene interaction networks. The primary goal of PN is to allow biomedical researchers to evaluate experimentally derived gene lists in the context of large-scale gene interaction networks. The PN analytical pipeline involves two key steps. The first is the collection of a comprehensive set of known gene interactions derived from a variety of publicly available sources. The second is to use these 'known' interactions together with gene expression data to infer robust gene networks. The PN web application is accessible from http://predictivenetworks.org. The PN code base is freely available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/predictivenets/.

  11. Fatigue study and improve reliability of cantilever type micro piezoelectric energy harvesters reinforced with flexible adhesive conductive tape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, T. K.; Hsieh, Y. C.; Chen, C. T.; Chen, J. J.; Wu, W. J.

    2016-04-01

    Cantilever type piezoelectric energy harvester (PEH) is widely adopted in the design of vibration energy harvesters because of simple, effective and easy to fabricate. When the PEH is working under excitation of continuous vibration sources, like mounting on motors, reliability and durability is a major concern. The failure mode and fatigue issues will be important design considerations in field applications. Since the largest strain of a cantilever structure is located in the clamping position of fixed end, the location is therefore the weakest point of the structure and the hot zone of mechanical cracks. The failure mode due to fatigue under long time excitation of vibration sources is typically continuously developing small cracks on the piezoelectric PZT films till tearing the surface electrodes and caused open circuit to the output circuitry. Therefore, extending the lifetime with minimize the surface electrodes cracking becomes a key point for field applications. Previously, we focused on the output performance of PEH. At PowerMEMS 2014 [1], we presented a high performance PEH based on PZT thin films fabricated with a homemade PZT deposition equipment on stainless steel substrates. We confirmed that the stainless steel based PEH can generate better output power than silicon based devices under the same vibration excitation levels, and also the stainless based PEH can have longer lifetime when excited at higher vibration levels due to better mechanical strength. In this study, we tried to further reinforce the PEH with a conductive adhesive tape sticking on the surface electrode near the clamping position. We investigated the change of failure mode and mechanical behaviors, including the frequency bandwidth and non-linearity of the piezoelectric energy harvester. The PEH devices was mounted on a shaker for long time testing with vibration frequency set around 120Hz at 0.5g, 0.6g, and 0.7g acceleration vibration levels. The electrodes of the PEH device were

  12. The application of cognitive models to the evaluation and prediction of human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Reason, J.T.

    1986-01-01

    The first section of the paper provides a brief overview of a number of important principles relevant to human reliability modeling that have emerged from cognitive models, and presents a synthesis of these approaches in the form of a Generic Error Modeling System (GEMS). The next section illustrates the application of GEMS to some well known nuclear power plant (NPP) incidents in which human error was a major contributor. The way in which design recommendations can emerge from analyses of this type is illustrated. The third section describes the use of cognitive models in the classification of human errors for prediction and data collection purposes. The final section addresses the predictive modeling of human error as part of human reliability assessment in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

  13. General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

    2016-01-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

  14. Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawawi, Khalid H; Afify, Ahmed R; Yousef, Mohammed K; Othman, Hisham I; Al-Dharrab, Ayman A

    2015-01-01

    This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students' practical performance. Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (Pdidactic scores (Pdidactic and practical scores for all subjects. Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students' practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading.

  15. A dynamic particle filter-support vector regression method for reliability prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Zhao; Tao, Tao; ZhuoShu, Ding; Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Support vector regression (SVR) has been applied to time series prediction and some works have demonstrated the feasibility of its use to forecast system reliability. For accuracy of reliability forecasting, the selection of SVR's parameters is important. The existing research works on SVR's parameters selection divide the example dataset into training and test subsets, and tune the parameters on the training data. However, these fixed parameters can lead to poor prediction capabilities if the data of the test subset differ significantly from those of training. Differently, the novel method proposed in this paper uses particle filtering to estimate the SVR model parameters according to the whole measurement sequence up to the last observation instance. By treating the SVR training model as the observation equation of a particle filter, our method allows updating the SVR model parameters dynamically when a new observation comes. Because of the adaptability of the parameters to dynamic data pattern, the new PF–SVR method has superior prediction performance over that of standard SVR. Four application results show that PF–SVR is more robust than SVR to the decrease of the number of training data and the change of initial SVR parameter values. Also, even if there are trends in the test data different from those in the training data, the method can capture the changes, correct the SVR parameters and obtain good predictions. -- Highlights: •A dynamic PF–SVR method is proposed to predict the system reliability. •The method can adjust the SVR parameters according to the change of data. •The method is robust to the size of training data and initial parameter values. •Some cases based on both artificial and real data are studied. •PF–SVR shows superior prediction performance over standard SVR

  16. Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    Service ( ATARS ) module because of its interim status. Reliability prediction models for software modules were derived and then verified by matching...System (A’iCR3BS) and thus can be introduced gradually and economically without ma jor olper- ational or procedural change. Since DABS uses monopulse...lineanaly- sis tools or are ured during maintenance or pre-initialization were not modeled because they are not part of the mission software. The ATARS

  17. Maintenance personnel performance simulation (MAPPS): a model for predicting maintenance performance reliability in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Krois, P.A.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.; Ryan, T.G.

    1983-01-01

    The NRC has developed a structured, quantitative, predictive methodology in the form of a computerized simulation model for assessing maintainer task performance. Objective of the overall program is to develop, validate, and disseminate a practical, useful, and acceptable methodology for the quantitative assessment of NPP maintenance personnel reliability. The program was organized into four phases: (1) scoping study, (2) model development, (3) model evaluation, and (4) model dissemination. The program is currently nearing completion of Phase 2 - Model Development

  18. Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS)

    OpenAIRE

    Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

    2012-01-01

    Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to cri...

  19. A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Weixian

    2000-03-01

    Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

  20. An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz [Air Force Institute of Technology ul. Księcia Bolesława 6 01-494 Warsaw (Poland)

    2016-06-08

    The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

  1. An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz

    2016-01-01

    The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

  2. Failure and reliability prediction by support vector machines regression of time series data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chagas Moura, Marcio das; Zio, Enrico; Lins, Isis Didier; Droguett, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are kernel-based learning methods, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems. However, their use in reliability applications has not been widely explored. In this paper, a comparative analysis is presented in order to evaluate the SVM effectiveness in forecasting time-to-failure and reliability of engineered components based on time series data. The performance on literature case studies of SVM regression is measured against other advanced learning methods such as the Radial Basis Function, the traditional MultiLayer Perceptron model, Box-Jenkins autoregressive-integrated-moving average and the Infinite Impulse Response Locally Recurrent Neural Networks. The comparison shows that in the analyzed cases, SVM outperforms or is comparable to other techniques. - Highlights: → Realistic modeling of reliability demands complex mathematical formulations. → SVM is proper when the relation input/output is unknown or very costly to be obtained. → Results indicate the potential of SVM for reliability time series prediction. → Reliability estimates support the establishment of adequate maintenance strategies.

  3. Doing the counter-regulation shuffle: The importance of flexibility and hunger for predicting food consumption following a preload.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadbent, Jaclyn; Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; Dennerstein, Michelle; Greenwood, Jesse; Hancock, Naomi; Thavapalan, Nithyyaa; White, Melissa

    This study utilised the preload paradigm to evaluate whether trait-like dieting attitudes and behaviours (dietary restraint and flexibility in dieting rules) and context-specific factors (negative mood and hunger) predict food consumption among male and female participants. Following a high calorie preload, 79 participants aged 18-40 completed a deceptive taste test in which they were encouraged to eat as much of the taste test foods as desired, and this ad libitum intake was measured. Although each predictor (except negative mood) predicted consumption when tested individually, regression analyses revealed that dieting flexibility and current hunger were the strongest unique predictors of intake. Mood failed to directly predict food consumption, nor did it moderate the relationship between restraint and food intake. Collectively, findings suggest that emphasis on dietary restraint in preload studies may be misplaced, as other proximal and stable factors may better predict food consumption. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Using personality item characteristics to predict single-item reliability, retest reliability, and self-other agreement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Reinout Everhard; Realo, Anu; Allik, Jüri

    2016-01-01

    The use of reliability estimates is increasingly scrutinized as scholars become more aware that test–retest stability and self–other agreement provide a better approximation of the theoretical and practical usefulness of an instrument than its internal reliability. In this study, we investigate item

  5. Neuro-Fuzzy Prediction of Cooperation Interaction Profile of Flexible Road Train Based on Hybrid Automaton Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banjanovic-Mehmedovic Lejla

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of traffic information is important in many applications in relation to Intelligent Transport systems (ITS, since it reduces the uncertainty of future traffic states and improves traffic mobility. There is a lot of research done in the field of traffic information predictions such as speed, flow and travel time. The most important research was done in the domain of cooperative intelligent transport system (C-ITS. The goal of this paper is to introduce the novel cooperation behaviour profile prediction through the example of flexible Road Trains useful road cooperation parameter, which contributes to the improvement of traffic mobility in Intelligent Transportation Systems. This paper presents an approach towards the control and cooperation behaviour modelling of vehicles in the flexible Road Train based on hybrid automaton and neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS prediction of cooperation profile of the flexible Road Train. Hybrid automaton takes into account complex dynamics of each vehicle as well as discrete cooperation approach. The ANFIS is a particular class of the ANN family with attractive estimation and learning potentials. In order to provide statistical analysis, RMSE (root mean square error, coefficient of determination (R2 and Pearson coefficient (r, were utilized. The study results suggest that ANFIS would be an efficient soft computing methodology, which could offer precise predictions of cooperative interactions between vehicles in Road Train, which is useful for prediction mobility in Intelligent Transport systems.

  6. An overall methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design with industrial application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habchi, Georges; Barthod, Christine

    2016-01-01

    We propose in this paper an overall ten-step methodology dedicated to the analysis and quantification of reliability during the design phase of a mechatronic system, considered as a complex system. The ten steps of the methodology are detailed according to the downward side of the V-development cycle usually used for the design of complex systems. Two main phases of analysis are complementary and cover the ten steps, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The qualitative phase proposes to analyze the functional and dysfunctional behavior of the system and then determine its different failure modes and degradation states, based on external and internal functional analysis, organic and physical implementation, and dependencies between components, with consideration of customer specifications and mission profile. The quantitative phase is used to calculate the reliability of the system and its components, based on the qualitative behavior patterns, and considering data gathering and processing and reliability targets. Systemic approach is used to calculate the reliability of the system taking into account: the different technologies of a mechatronic system (mechanics, electronics, electrical .), dependencies and interactions between components and external influencing factors. To validate the methodology, the ten steps are applied to an industrial system, the smart actuator of Pack'Aero Company. - Highlights: • A ten-step methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design. • Qualitative and quantitative analysis for reliability evaluation using PN and RBD. • A dependency matrix proposal, based on the collateral and functional interactions. • Models consider mission profile, deterioration, interactions and influent factors. • Application and validation of the methodology on the “Smart Actuator” of PACK’AERO.

  7. Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Yizhen; Wang, Yu; Zi, YanYang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Zhang, Chuhua

    2017-01-01

    The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented. - Highlights: • A new multiple imputation strategy was developed to derive the PDF of missing data. • A new order statistic model was developed to simplify the imputation procedure. • The parameters of the order statistic model were iteratively inferred by MCEM. • A real cases study was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  8. Predicting the tolerated sequences for proteins and protein interfaces using RosettaBackrub flexible backbone design.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin A Smith

    Full Text Available Predicting the set of sequences that are tolerated by a protein or protein interface, while maintaining a desired function, is useful for characterizing protein interaction specificity and for computationally designing sequence libraries to engineer proteins with new functions. Here we provide a general method, a detailed set of protocols, and several benchmarks and analyses for estimating tolerated sequences using flexible backbone protein design implemented in the Rosetta molecular modeling software suite. The input to the method is at least one experimentally determined three-dimensional protein structure or high-quality model. The starting structure(s are expanded or refined into a conformational ensemble using Monte Carlo simulations consisting of backrub backbone and side chain moves in Rosetta. The method then uses a combination of simulated annealing and genetic algorithm optimization methods to enrich for low-energy sequences for the individual members of the ensemble. To emphasize certain functional requirements (e.g. forming a binding interface, interactions between and within parts of the structure (e.g. domains can be reweighted in the scoring function. Results from each backbone structure are merged together to create a single estimate for the tolerated sequence space. We provide an extensive description of the protocol and its parameters, all source code, example analysis scripts and three tests applying this method to finding sequences predicted to stabilize proteins or protein interfaces. The generality of this method makes many other applications possible, for example stabilizing interactions with small molecules, DNA, or RNA. Through the use of within-domain reweighting and/or multistate design, it may also be possible to use this method to find sequences that stabilize particular protein conformations or binding interactions over others.

  9. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  10. The 6-min push test is reliable and predicts low fitness in spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Rachel E; Callahan, Morgan K; Nash, Mark S

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study is to assess 6-min push test (6MPT) reliability, determine whether the 6MPT is sensitive to fitness differences, and assess if 6MPT distance predicts fitness level in persons with spinal cord injury (SCI) or disease. Forty individuals with SCI who could self-propel a manual wheelchair completed an incremental arm crank peak oxygen consumption assessment and two 6MPTs across 3 d (37% tetraplegia (TP), 63% paraplegia (PP), 85% men, 70% white, 63% Hispanic, mean age = 34 ± 10 yr, mean duration of injury = 13 ± 10 yr, and mean body mass index = 24 ± 5 kg.m). Intraclass correlation and Bland-Altman plots assessed 6MPT distance (m) reliability. Mann-Whitney U test compared 6MPT distance (m) of high and low fitness groups for TP and PP. The fitness status prediction was developed using N = 30 and validated in N = 10 (validation group (VG)). A nonstatistical prediction approach, below or above a threshold distance (TP = 445 m and PP = 604 m), was validated statistically by binomial logistic regression. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were computed to evaluate the threshold approach. Intraclass correlation coefficients exceeded 0.90 for the whole sample and the TP/PP subsets. High fitness persons propelled farther than low fitness persons for both TP/PP (both P < 0.05). Binomial logistic regression (P < 0.008) predicted the same fitness levels in the VG as the threshold approach. In the VG, overall accuracy was 70%. Eighty-six percent of low fitness persons were correctly identified (sensitivity), and 33% of high fitness persons were correctly identified (specificity). The 6MPT may be a useful tool for SCI clinicians and researchers. 6MPT distance demonstrates excellent reliability and is sensitive to differences in fitness level. 6MPT distances less than a threshold distance may be an effective approach to identify low fitness in person with SCI.

  11. ARA and ARI imperfect repair models: Estimation, goodness-of-fit and reliability prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toledo, Maria Luíza Guerra de; Freitas, Marta A.; Colosimo, Enrico A.; Gilardoni, Gustavo L.

    2015-01-01

    An appropriate maintenance policy is essential to reduce expenses and risks related to equipment failures. A fundamental aspect to be considered when specifying such policies is to be able to predict the reliability of the systems under study, based on a well fitted model. In this paper, the classes of models Arithmetic Reduction of Age and Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity are explored. Likelihood functions for such models are derived, and a graphical method is proposed for model selection. A real data set involving failures in trucks used by a Brazilian mining is analyzed considering models with different memories. Parameters, namely, shape and scale for Power Law Process, and the efficiency of repair were estimated for the best fitted model. Estimation of model parameters allowed us to derive reliability estimators to predict the behavior of the failure process. These results are a valuable information for the mining company and can be used to support decision making regarding preventive maintenance policy. - Highlights: • Likelihood functions for imperfect repair models are derived. • A goodness-of-fit technique is proposed as a tool for model selection. • Failures in trucks owned by a Brazilian mining are modeled. • Estimation allowed deriving reliability predictors to forecast the future failure process of the trucks

  12. Genotyping cows for the reference increase reliability of genomic prediction in a small breed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Sørensen, Anders Christian; Lund, Mogens Sandø

    2013-01-01

    We hypothesized that adding cows to the reference population in a breed with a small number of reference bulls would increase reliabilities of genomic breeding values and genetic gain. We tested this premise by comparing two strategies for maintaining the reference population for genetic gain......, inbreeding and reliabilities of genomic predictions: 1) Adding 60 progeny tested bulls each year (B), and 2) in addition to 60 progeny tested bulls, adding 2,000 genotyped cows per year (C). Two breeding schemes were tested: 1) A turbo scheme (T) with only genotyped young bulls used intensively, and 2...... compared to the H-B, at the same level of ∆F. T-C yielded 15% higher ∆G compared t o T-B. Changing the breeding scheme from H-B to H-C increased ∆G by 5.5%. The lowest ∆F was observed with genotyping of cows. Reliabilities of GEBV in the C schemes showed a steep increase in reliability during the first...

  13. [Reliability and validity of the Braden Scale for predicting pressure sore risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boes, C

    2000-12-01

    For more accurate and objective pressure sore risk assessment various risk assessment tools were developed mainly in the USA and Great Britain. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk is one such example. By means of a literature analysis of German and English texts referring to the Braden Scale the scientific control criteria reliability and validity will be traced and consequences for application of the scale in Germany will be demonstrated. Analysis of 4 reliability studies shows an exclusive focus on interrater reliability. Further, even though examination of 19 validity studies occurs in many different settings, such examination is limited to the criteria sensitivity and specificity (accuracy). The range of sensitivity and specificity level is 35-100%. The recommended cut off points rank in the field of 10 to 19 points. The studies prove to be not comparable with each other. Furthermore, distortions in these studies can be found which affect accuracy of the scale. The results of the here presented analysis show an insufficient proof for reliability and validity in the American studies. In Germany, the Braden scale has not yet been tested under scientific criteria. Such testing is needed before using the scale in different German settings. During the course of such testing, construction and study procedures of the American studies can be used as a basis as can the problems be identified in the analysis presented below.

  14. Impact of Relationships between Test and Reference Animals and between Reference Animals on Reliability of Genomic Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Xiaoping; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sun, Dongxiao

    This study investigated reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to relationship between test and reference animals and between animals within the reference population. Different reference populations were generated from EuroGenomics data and 1288 Nordic Holstein bulls...... as a common test population. A GBLUP model and a Bayesian mixture model were applied to predict Genomic breeding values for bulls in the test data. Result showed that a closer relationship between test and reference animals led to a higher reliability, while a closer relationship between reference animal...... resulted in a lower reliability. Therefore, the design of reference population is important for improving the reliability of genomic prediction. With regard to model, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to slightly a higher reliability of genomic prediction than the GBLUP model...

  15. Model-based chatter stability prediction and detection for the turning of a flexible workpiece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kaibo; Lian, Zisheng; Gu, Fengshou; Liu, Hunju

    2018-02-01

    Machining long slender workpieces still presents a technical challenge on the shop floor due to their low stiffness and damping. Regenerative chatter is a major hindrance in machining processes, reducing the geometric accuracies and dynamic stability of the cutting system. This study has been motivated by the fact that chatter occurrence is generally in relation to the cutting position in straight turning of slender workpieces, which has seldom been investigated comprehensively in literature. In the present paper, a predictive chatter model of turning a tailstock supported slender workpiece considering the cutting position change during machining is explored. Based on linear stability analysis and stiffness distribution at different cutting positions along the workpiece, the effect of the cutting tool movement along the length of the workpiece on chatter stability is studied. As a result, an entire stability chart for a single cutting pass is constructed. Through this stability chart the critical cutting condition and the chatter onset location along the workpiece in a turning operation can be estimated. The difference between the predicted tool locations and the experimental results was within 9% at high speed cutting. Also, on the basis of the predictive model the dynamic behavior during chatter that when chatter arises at some cutting location it will continue for a period of time until another specified location is arrived at, can be inferred. The experimental observation is in good agreement with the theoretical inference. In chatter detection respect, besides the delay strategy and overlap processing technique, a relative threshold algorithm is proposed to detect chatter by comparing the spectrum and variance of the acquired acceleration signals with the reference saved during stable cutting. The chatter monitoring method has shown reliability for various machining conditions.

  16. Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

    2015-10-01

    One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  17. A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

    2014-09-01

    LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

  18. Characterization and prediction of rate-dependent flexibility in lumbar spine biomechanics at room and body temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolworthy, Dean K; Zirbel, Shannon A; Howell, Larry L; Samuels, Marina; Bowden, Anton E

    2014-05-01

    The soft tissues of the spine exhibit sensitivity to strain-rate and temperature, yet current knowledge of spine biomechanics is derived from cadaveric testing conducted at room temperature at very slow, quasi-static rates. The primary objective of this study was to characterize the change in segmental flexibility of cadaveric lumbar spine segments with respect to multiple loading rates within the range of physiologic motion by using specimens at body or room temperature. The secondary objective was to develop a predictive model of spine flexibility across the voluntary range of loading rates. This in vitro study examines rate- and temperature-dependent viscoelasticity of the human lumbar cadaveric spine. Repeated flexibility tests were performed on 21 lumbar function spinal units (FSUs) in flexion-extension with the use of 11 distinct voluntary loading rates at body or room temperature. Furthermore, six lumbar FSUs were loaded in axial rotation, flexion-extension, and lateral bending at both body and room temperature via a stepwise, quasi-static loading protocol. All FSUs were also loaded using a control loading test with a continuous-speed loading-rate of 1-deg/sec. The viscoelastic torque-rotation response for each spinal segment was recorded. A predictive model was developed to accurately estimate spine segment flexibility at any voluntary loading rate based on measured flexibility at a single loading rate. Stepwise loading exhibited the greatest segmental range of motion (ROM) in all loading directions. As loading rate increased, segmental ROM decreased, whereas segmental stiffness and hysteresis both increased; however, the neutral zone remained constant. Continuous-speed tests showed that segmental stiffness and hysteresis are dependent variables to ROM at voluntary loading rates in flexion-extension. To predict the torque-rotation response at different loading rates, the model requires knowledge of the segmental flexibility at a single rate and specified

  19. Physics-based process modeling, reliability prediction, and design guidelines for flip-chip devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaelides, Stylianos

    Flip Chip on Board (FCOB) and Chip-Scale Packages (CSPs) are relatively new technologies that are being increasingly used in the electronic packaging industry. Compared to the more widely used face-up wirebonding and TAB technologies, flip-chips and most CSPs provide the shortest possible leads, lower inductance, higher frequency, better noise control, higher density, greater input/output (I/O), smaller device footprint and lower profile. However, due to the short history and due to the introduction of several new electronic materials, designs, and processing conditions, very limited work has been done to understand the role of material, geometry, and processing parameters on the reliability of flip-chip devices. Also, with the ever-increasing complexity of semiconductor packages and with the continued reduction in time to market, it is too costly to wait until the later stages of design and testing to discover that the reliability is not satisfactory. The objective of the research is to develop integrated process-reliability models that will take into consideration the mechanics of assembly processes to be able to determine the reliability of face-down devices under thermal cycling and long-term temperature dwelling. The models incorporate the time and temperature-dependent constitutive behavior of various materials in the assembly to be able to predict failure modes such as die cracking and solder cracking. In addition, the models account for process-induced defects and macro-micro features of the assembly. Creep-fatigue and continuum-damage mechanics models for the solder interconnects and fracture-mechanics models for the die have been used to determine the reliability of the devices. The results predicted by the models have been successfully validated against experimental data. The validated models have been used to develop qualification and test procedures for implantable medical devices. In addition, the research has helped develop innovative face

  20. Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

  1. Notes on human factors problems in process plant reliability and safety prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, J.; Taylor, J.R.

    1976-09-01

    The basis for plant operator reliability evaluation is described. Principles for plant design, necessary to permit reliability evaluation, are outlined. Five approaches to the plant operator reliability problem are described. Case stories, illustrating operator reliability problems, are given. (author)

  2. Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina

    To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

  3. Metabolic flexibility of mitochondrial respiratory chain disorders predicted by computer modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieliński, Łukasz P; Smith, Anthony C; Smith, Alexander G; Robinson, Alan J

    2016-11-01

    Mitochondrial respiratory chain dysfunction causes a variety of life-threatening diseases affecting about 1 in 4300 adults. These diseases are genetically heterogeneous, but have the same outcome; reduced activity of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes causing decreased ATP production and potentially toxic accumulation of metabolites. Severity and tissue specificity of these effects varies between patients by unknown mechanisms and treatment options are limited. So far most research has focused on the complexes themselves, and the impact on overall cellular metabolism is largely unclear. To illustrate how computer modelling can be used to better understand the potential impact of these disorders and inspire new research directions and treatments, we simulated them using a computer model of human cardiomyocyte mitochondrial metabolism containing over 300 characterised reactions and transport steps with experimental parameters taken from the literature. Overall, simulations were consistent with patient symptoms, supporting their biological and medical significance. These simulations predicted: complex I deficiencies could be compensated using multiple pathways; complex II deficiencies had less metabolic flexibility due to impacting both the TCA cycle and the respiratory chain; and complex III and IV deficiencies caused greatest decreases in ATP production with metabolic consequences that parallel hypoxia. Our study demonstrates how results from computer models can be compared to a clinical phenotype and used as a tool for hypothesis generation for subsequent experimental testing. These simulations can enhance understanding of dysfunctional mitochondrial metabolism and suggest new avenues for research into treatment of mitochondrial disease and other areas of mitochondrial dysfunction. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Association of grey matter changes with stability and flexibility of prediction in akinetic-rigid Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trempler, Ima; Binder, Ellen; El-Sourani, Nadiya; Schiffler, Patrick; Tenberge, Jan-Gerd; Schiffer, Anne-Marike; Fink, Gereon R; Schubotz, Ricarda I

    2018-06-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD), which is caused by degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the midbrain, results in a heterogeneous clinical picture including cognitive decline. Since the phasic signal of dopamine neurons is proposed to guide learning by signifying mismatches between subjects' expectations and external events, we here investigated whether akinetic-rigid PD patients without mild cognitive impairment exhibit difficulties in dealing with either relevant (requiring flexibility) or irrelevant (requiring stability) prediction errors. Following our previous study on flexibility and stability in prediction (Trempler et al. J Cogn Neurosci 29(2):298-309, 2017), we then assessed whether deficits would correspond with specific structural alterations in dopaminergic regions as well as in inferior frontal cortex, medial prefrontal cortex, and the hippocampus. Twenty-one healthy controls and twenty-one akinetic-rigid PD patients on and off medication performed a task which required to serially predict upcoming items. Switches between predictable sequences had to be indicated via button press, whereas sequence omissions had to be ignored. Independent of the disease, midbrain volume was related to a general response bias to unexpected events, whereas right putamen volume correlated with the ability to discriminate between relevant and irrelevant prediction errors. However, patients compared with healthy participants showed deficits in stabilisation against irrelevant prediction errors, associated with thickness of right inferior frontal gyrus and left medial prefrontal cortex. Flexible updating due to relevant prediction errors was also affected in patients compared with controls and associated with right hippocampus volume. Dopaminergic medication influenced behavioural performance across, but not within the patients. Our exploratory study warrants further research on deficient prediction error processing and its structural correlates as a core of cognitive symptoms

  5. Comparison of ICEPEL predictions with single elbow flexible piping system experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A-Moneim, M.T.; Chang, Y.W.

    1978-01-01

    The ICEPEL Code for coupled hydrodynamic-structural response analysis of piping systems is used to analyze an experiment on the response of flexible piping systems to internal pressure pulses. The piping system consisted of two flexible Nickel-200 pipes connected in series through a 90 0 thick-walled stainless steel elbow. A tailored pressure pulse generated by a calibrated pulse gun is stabilized in a long thick-walled stainless steel pipe leading to the flexible piping system which ended with a heavy blind flange. The analytical results of pressure and circumferential strain histories are discussed and compared against the experimental data obtained by Stanford Research Institute

  6. Nuclear power plant maintenance personnel reliability prediction (NPP/MPRP) effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.

    1981-01-01

    Human errors committed during maintenance activities are potentially a major contribution to the overall risk associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). An NRC-sponsored program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is attempting to develop a quantitative predictive technique to evaluate the contribution of maintenance errors to the overall NPP risk. The current work includes a survey of the requirements of potential users to ascertain the need for and content of the proposed quantitative model, plus an initial job/task analysis to determine the scope and applicability of various maintenance tasks. In addition, existing human reliability prediction models are being reviewed and assessed with respect to their applicability to NPP maintenance tasks. This paper discusses the status of the program and summarizes the results to date

  7. Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

    2012-10-01

    Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to criminal justice system involvement, self-report measures of aggression, impulsivity, and lack of empathy. Additionally, the CCS was associated with violent criminal history, antisocial personality, and clinicians' ratings of risk for future violence and psychopathy (PCL:SV). Furthermore, criminogenic thinking upon incarceration predicted subsequent official reports of inmate misconduct during incarceration. CCS scores varied somewhat by gender and race. Research and applied uses of CCS are discussed.

  8. Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

    2014-09-01

    Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology.

  9. Developing a novel hierarchical approach for multiscale structural reliability predictions for ultra-high consequence applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emery, John M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Coffin, Peter [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robbins, Brian A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Carroll, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Field, Richard V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeremy Yoo, Yung Suk [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kacher, Josh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Microstructural variabilities are among the predominant sources of uncertainty in structural performance and reliability. We seek to develop efficient algorithms for multiscale calcu- lations for polycrystalline alloys such as aluminum alloy 6061-T6 in environments where ductile fracture is the dominant failure mode. Our approach employs concurrent multiscale methods, but does not focus on their development. They are a necessary but not sufficient ingredient to multiscale reliability predictions. We have focused on how to efficiently use concurrent models for forward propagation because practical applications cannot include fine-scale details throughout the problem domain due to exorbitant computational demand. Our approach begins with a low-fidelity prediction at the engineering scale that is sub- sequently refined with multiscale simulation. The results presented in this report focus on plasticity and damage at the meso-scale, efforts to expedite Monte Carlo simulation with mi- crostructural considerations, modeling aspects regarding geometric representation of grains and second-phase particles, and contrasting algorithms for scale coupling.

  10. The prediction of reliability and residual life of reactor pressure components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemec, J.; Antalovsky, S.

    1978-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of PWR pressure components reliability and residual life evaluation and prediction. A physical model of damage cumulation which serves as a theoretical basis for all considerations presents two major aspects. The first one describes the dependence of the degree of damage in the crack leading-edge in pressure components on the reactor system load-time history, i.e. on the number of transient loads. Both stages, fatigue crack initiation and growth through the wall until the critical length is reached, are investigated. The crack is supposed to initiate at the flaws in a strength weld joint or in the bimetallic weld of the base ferritic steel and the austenitic stainless overlay cladding. The growth rates of developed cracks are analysed in respect to different load-time histories. Important cyclic properties of some steels are derived from the low-cycle fatigue theory. The second aspect is the load-time history-dependent process of precipitation, deformation and radiation aging, characterized entirely by the critical crack-length value mentioned above. The fracture point, defined by the equation ''crack-length=critical value'' and hence the residual life, can be evaluated using this model and verified by in-service inspection. The physical model described is randomized by considering all the parameters of the model as random. Monte Carlo methods are applied and fatigue crack initiation and growth is simulated. This permits evaluation of the reliability and residual life of the component. The distributions of material and load-time history parameters are needed for such simulation. Both the deterministic and computer-simulated probabilistic predictions of reliability and residual life are verified by prior-to-failure sequential testing of data coming from in-service NDT periodical inspections. (author)

  11. Improved prediction of residue flexibility by embedding optimized amino acid grouping into RSA-based linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hua; Kurgan, Lukasz

    2014-12-01

    Knowledge of protein flexibility is vital for deciphering the corresponding functional mechanisms. This knowledge would help, for instance, in improving computational drug design and refinement in homology-based modeling. We propose a new predictor of the residue flexibility, which is expressed by B-factors, from protein chains that use local (in the chain) predicted (or native) relative solvent accessibility (RSA) and custom-derived amino acid (AA) alphabets. Our predictor is implemented as a two-stage linear regression model that uses RSA-based space in a local sequence window in the first stage and a reduced AA pair-based space in the second stage as the inputs. This method is easy to comprehend explicit linear form in both stages. Particle swarm optimization was used to find an optimal reduced AA alphabet to simplify the input space and improve the prediction performance. The average correlation coefficients between the native and predicted B-factors measured on a large benchmark dataset are improved from 0.65 to 0.67 when using the native RSA values and from 0.55 to 0.57 when using the predicted RSA values. Blind tests that were performed on two independent datasets show consistent improvements in the average correlation coefficients by a modest value of 0.02 for both native and predicted RSA-based predictions.

  12. Reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Frederik Banch; Krog, Grethe Risum; Rieneck, Klaus

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis.......The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis....

  13. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  14. Quasi-static analysis of flexible pavements based on predicted frequencies using Fast Fourier Transform and Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Ghanizadeh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available New trend in design of flexible pavements is mechanistic-empirical approach. The first step for applying this method is analyzing the pavement structure for several times and computation of critical stresses and strains, which needs a fast analysis method with good accuracy. This paper aims to introduce a new rapid pavement analysis approach, which can consider the history of loading and rate effect. To this end, 1200 flexible pavement sections were analyzed, and equivalent frequencies (EF were calculated using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT method at various depths of asphalt layer. A nonlinear regression equation has been presented for determining EF at different depths of asphalt layer. For more accurate predicting of EF at low frequencies, a feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN was employed, which allows accurate prediction of EF. The frequencies obtained by the proposed regression equation and ANN were compared with frequencies observed in Virginia Smart Road project, and it was found that there is a good agreement between observed and predicted frequencies. Comparison of quasi-static analysis of flexible pavements by frequencies obtained using FFT method and full dynamic analysis by 3D-Move program approves that the critical responses of pavement computed by proposed quasi-static analysis approach are comparable to critical responses computed using full dynamic analysis. Keywords: Equivalent frequency, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT, Pavement quasi-static analysis, Dynamic modulus, Artificial Neural Network (ANN

  15. How reliable must advanced nondestructive testing be? A concept for the prediction, validation and raised quality of NDT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nockemann, C.; Tillack, G.R.; Schnitger, D.; Heidt, H.

    1995-01-01

    A concept of the harmonic integration of the following three mainstays of the reliability of ndt is proposed: 1. Theoretical prediction of the reliability as a function of physical parameter by computer modelling of the test problem concerned and the ndt process; maximisation by variation of the parameters. 2. Experimental evaluation of the reliability of ndt processes by the application of statistical methods to test practice. 3. Increasing the reliability by the combination of several ndt methods in a standard DV environment and European interconnection and provision of a distributed databank system. International exchange of experience via telecommunication. (orig.) [de

  16. Advanced air staging techniques to improve fuel flexibility, reliability and emissions in fluidized bed co-combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aamand, Lars-Erik; Leckner, Bo [Chalmers Technical Univ., Goeteborg (Sweden); Luecke, Karsten; Werther, Joachim [Technical Univ. of Hamburg-Harburg (Germany)

    2001-12-01

    A joint research project between the Technical University of Hamburg-Harburg and Chalmers Technical University. For operation under co-combustion the following results should be considered: The high ash content of the sewage sludge results in significantly increased ash flows. Although high alkali metal concentrations are found in the sewage sludge ash, no critical concentrations were reached and tendencies to fouling were not observed. The trace metal input rises with increased sludge fraction. However, emissions of metal compounds were well below legal limits. The trace metals tend to accumulate on the fly ash. In general, very low fuel nitrogen conversions to NO and N{sub 2}O of 2 - 4 % are achievable. With coal as a base fuel alternative air staging with secondary air supply after solids separation attains even lower NO emissions than normal staging without strongly affecting CO and SO{sub 2} emissions. Alternative staging also reduces N{sub 2}O emissions. An optimum for the excess air ratio in the riser of 1.05 was found for a total excess air ratio of 1.2. The higher the volatile content of the fuel is, the less effective the NO reduction due to air staging becomes. The measurements suggest that the optimum gas residence time regarding the emissions in CFB combustors is around 6 to 7 s. These times are achieved in commercial scale plants due to their large cyclones that perhaps partly can replace a large afterburner chamber. The circulating fluidized bed boiler can be operated in a very flexible way with various fuel mixtures up to an energy fraction of sludge of 25% without exceeding legal emission limits.

  17. Investigations and technical reviews on the reliability of prediction for migration behavior of radionuclides (H15)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tachikawa, Hirokazu

    2004-02-01

    The research plan of the validation on effects of colloids and organic materials drawn up by the Japan Nuclear Fuel Cycle Development Institute and its' research outcome were reviewed comprehensively by an expert committee established in the Nuclear Safety Research Association. Additionally, experimental investigations for the migration behavior of actinide elements and fission products in engineering barrier and natural barrier medias, and for solution chemistry of them were carried out and discussed by the committee, in order to enhance the reliability of prediction for migration behavior of radionuclides. The subjects investigated by the expert committee are as follows: (1) Research on solubility products of An(III) hydroxide. (2) Diffusion and electromigration behavior of plutonium in buffer material. (3) Analysis of the nuclide solubility in compacted bentonite. (4) Survey of the actual contamination by alpha emitters in steel materials. (author)

  18. Quantitative trait loci markers derived from whole genome sequence data increases the reliability of genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøndum, Rasmus Froberg; Su, Guosheng; Janss, Luc

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the effect on the reliability of genomic prediction when a small number of significant variants from single marker analysis based on whole genome sequence data were added to the regular 54k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. The extra markers were selected...... with the aim of augmenting the custom low-density Illumina BovineLD SNP chip (San Diego, CA) used in the Nordic countries. The single-marker analysis was done breed-wise on all 16 index traits included in the breeding goals for Nordic Holstein, Danish Jersey, and Nordic Red cattle plus the total merit index...... itself. Depending on the trait’s economic weight, 15, 10, or 5 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were selected per trait per breed and 3 to 5 markers were selected to tag each QTL. After removing duplicate markers (same marker selected for more than one trait or breed) and filtering for high pairwise linkage...

  19. Reflow Process Parameters Analysis and Reliability Prediction Considering Multiple Characteristic Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Yu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As a major step surface mount technology, reflow process is the key factor affecting the quality of the final product. The setting parameters and characteristic value of temperature curve shows a nonlinear relationship. So parameter impacts on characteristic values are analyzed and the parameters adjustment process based on orthogonal experiment is proposed in the paper. First, setting parameters are determined and the orthogonal test is designed according to production conditions. Then each characteristic value for temperature profile is calculated. Further, multi-index orthogonal experiment is analyzed for acquiring the setting parameters which impacts the PCBA product quality greater. Finally, reliability prediction is carried out considering the main influencing parameters for providing a theoretical basis of parameters adjustment and product quality evaluation in engineering process.

  20. Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

    2012-01-01

    Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

  1. Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear: Reliability of MR Imaging to Predict Stability after Conservative Treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Hye Won; Ahn, Jin Hwan; Ahn, Joong Mo; Yoon, Young Cheol; Hong, Hyun Pyo; Yoo, So Young; Kim, Seon Woo [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-06-15

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the reliability of MR imaging to predict the stability of the torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after complete recovery of the ligament's continuity. Twenty patients with 20 knee injuries (13 males and 7 females; age range, 20 54) were enrolled in the study. The inclusion criteria were a positive history of acute trauma, diagnosis of the ACL tear by both the physical examination and the MR imaging at the initial presentation, conservative treatment, complete recovery of the continuity of the ligament on the follow up (FU) MR images and availability of the KT-2000 measurements. Two radiologists, who worked in consensus, graded the MR findings with using a 3-point system for the signal intensity, sharpness, straightness and the thickness of the healed ligament. The insufficiency of ACL was categorized into three groups according to the KT-2000 measurements. The statistic correlations between the grades of the MR findings and the degrees of ACL insufficiency were analyzed using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test (p < 0.05). The p-values for each category of the MR findings according to the different groups of the KT-2000 measurements were 0.9180 for the MR signal intensity, 1.0000 for sharpness, 0.5038 for straightness and 0.2950 for thickness of the ACL. The MR findings were not significantly different between the different KT-2000 groups. MR imaging itself is not a reliable examination to predict stability of the ACL rupture outcome, even when the MR images show an intact appearance of the ACL.

  2. New basis set for the prediction of the specific rotation in flexible biological molecules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baranowska-Łaczkowska, Angelika; Z. Łaczkowski, Krzysztof Z. Łaczkowski; Henriksen, Christian

    2016-01-01

    are compared to those obtained with the (d-)aug-cc-pVXZ (X = D, T and Q) basis sets of Dunning et al. The ORP values are in good overall agreement with the aug-cc-pVTZ results making the ORP a good basis set for routine TD-DFT optical rotation calculations of conformationally flexible molecules. The results...

  3. Flexible body dynamics in a local frame with explicitly predicted motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kawamoto, A.; Krenk, Steen; Suzuki, A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with formulation of dynamics of a moving flexible body in a local frame of reference. In a conventional approach the local frame is normally fixed to the corresponding body and always represents the positions and angles of the body: the positions and angles are represented by Car...

  4. Flexibility Predicts Curve Progression in Providence Nighttime Bracing of Patients With Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ohrt-Nissen, Søren; Hallager, Dennis Winge; Gehrchen, Poul Martin

    2016-01-01

    for adolescent idiopathic ccoliosis (AIS) have been inconsistent and further research is needed. The association between flexibility, as determined by pretreatment SLBR, and curve progression has not previously been examined. METHODS: All patients treated with the PB from 2006 to 2011 who met Scoliosis Research...

  5. Differential Role of CBT Skills, DBT Skills and Psychological Flexibility in Predicting Depressive versus Anxiety Symptom Improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Christian A.; Beard, Courtney; Kertz, Sarah J.; Hsu, Kean; Björgvinsson, Thröstur

    2016-01-01

    Objective Studies have reported associations between cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) skill use and symptom improvement in depressed outpatient samples. However, little is known regarding the temporal relationship between different subsets of therapeutic skills and symptom change among relatively severely depressed patients receiving treatment in psychiatric hospital settings. Method Adult patients with major depression (N=173) receiving combined psychotherapeutic and pharmacological treatment at a psychiatric hospital completed repeated assessments of traditional CBT skills, DBT skills and psychological flexibility, as well as depressive and anxiety symptoms. Results Results indicated that only use of behavioral activation (BA) strategies significantly predicted depressive symptom improvement in this sample; whereas DBT skills and psychological flexibility predicted anxiety symptom change. In addition, a baseline symptom severity X BA strategies interaction emerged indicating that those patients with higher pretreatment depression severity exhibited the strongest association between use of BA strategies and depressive symptom improvement. Conclusions Findings suggest the importance of emphasizing the acquisition and regular use of BA strategies with severely depressed patients in short-term psychiatric settings. In contrast, an emphasis on the development of DBT skills and the cultivation of psychological flexibility may prove beneficial for the amelioration of anxiety symptoms. PMID:27057997

  6. SU-F-T-433: Evaluation of a New Dose Mimicking Application for Clinical Flexibility and Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, D; Nair, C Kumaran; Wright, C; Yamamoto, T; Mayadev, J; Valicenti, R; Benedict, S; Rong, Y; Markham, J

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Clinical workflow and machine down time occasionally require patients to be temporarily treated on a system other than the initial treatment machine. A new commercial dose mimicking application provides automated cross-platform treatment planning to expedite this clinical flexibility. The aim of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of automatic plan creation and establish a robust clinical workflow for prostate and pelvis patients. Methods: Five prostate and five pelvis patients treated with helical plans were selected for re-planning with the dose mimicking application, covering both simple and complex scenarios. Two-arc VMAT and 7- and 9-field IMRT plans were generated for each case, with the objective function of achieving similar dose volume histogram from the initial helical plans. Dosimetric comparisons include target volumes and organs at risk (OARs) (rectum, bladder, small bowel, femoral heads, etc.). Dose mimicked plans were evaluated by a radiation oncologist, and patient-specific QAs were performed to validate delivery. Results: Overall plan generation and transfer required around 30 minutes of dosimetrist’s time once the dose-mimicking protocol is setup for each site. The resulting VMAT and 7- and 9-field IMRT plans achieved equivalent PTV coverage and homogeneity (D99/DRx = 97.3%, 97.2%, 97.2% and HI = 6.0, 5.8, and 5.9, respectively), compared to helical plans (97.6% and 4.6). The OAR dose discrepancies were up to 6% in rectum Dmean, but generally lower in bladder, femoral heads, bowel and penile bulb. In the context of 1–5 fractions, the radiation oncologist evaluated the dosimetric changes as not clinically significant. All delivery QAs achieved >90% pass with a 3%/3mm gamma criteria. Conclusion: The automated dose-mimicking workflow offers a strategy to avoid missing treatment fractions due to machine down time with non-clinically significant changes in dosimetry. Future work will further optimize dose mimicking plans and

  7. SU-F-T-433: Evaluation of a New Dose Mimicking Application for Clinical Flexibility and Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, D; Nair, C Kumaran; Wright, C; Yamamoto, T; Mayadev, J; Valicenti, R; Benedict, S; Rong, Y [University of California Davis Medical Center, Sacramento, CA (United States); Markham, J [Raysearch Laboratories, Garden City, NY (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Clinical workflow and machine down time occasionally require patients to be temporarily treated on a system other than the initial treatment machine. A new commercial dose mimicking application provides automated cross-platform treatment planning to expedite this clinical flexibility. The aim of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of automatic plan creation and establish a robust clinical workflow for prostate and pelvis patients. Methods: Five prostate and five pelvis patients treated with helical plans were selected for re-planning with the dose mimicking application, covering both simple and complex scenarios. Two-arc VMAT and 7- and 9-field IMRT plans were generated for each case, with the objective function of achieving similar dose volume histogram from the initial helical plans. Dosimetric comparisons include target volumes and organs at risk (OARs) (rectum, bladder, small bowel, femoral heads, etc.). Dose mimicked plans were evaluated by a radiation oncologist, and patient-specific QAs were performed to validate delivery. Results: Overall plan generation and transfer required around 30 minutes of dosimetrist’s time once the dose-mimicking protocol is setup for each site. The resulting VMAT and 7- and 9-field IMRT plans achieved equivalent PTV coverage and homogeneity (D99/DRx = 97.3%, 97.2%, 97.2% and HI = 6.0, 5.8, and 5.9, respectively), compared to helical plans (97.6% and 4.6). The OAR dose discrepancies were up to 6% in rectum Dmean, but generally lower in bladder, femoral heads, bowel and penile bulb. In the context of 1–5 fractions, the radiation oncologist evaluated the dosimetric changes as not clinically significant. All delivery QAs achieved >90% pass with a 3%/3mm gamma criteria. Conclusion: The automated dose-mimicking workflow offers a strategy to avoid missing treatment fractions due to machine down time with non-clinically significant changes in dosimetry. Future work will further optimize dose mimicking plans and

  8. Does cognitive flexibility predict treatment gains in Internet-delivered psychological treatment of social anxiety disorder, depression, or tinnitus?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Lindner

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Little is known about the individual factors that predict outcomes in Internet-administered psychological treatments. We hypothesized that greater cognitive flexibility (i.e. the ability to simultaneously consider several concepts and tasks and switch effortlessly between them in response to changes in environmental contingencies would provide a better foundation for learning and employing the cognitive restructuring techniques taught and exercised in therapy, leading to greater treatment gains. Participants in three trials featuring Internet-administered psychological treatments for depression (n = 36, social anxiety disorder (n = 115 and tinnitus (n = 53 completed the 64-card Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST prior to treatment. We found no significant associations between perseverative errors on the WCST and treatment gains in any group. We also found low accuracy in the classification of treatment responders. We conclude that lower cognitive flexibility, as captured by perseverative errors on the WCST, should not impede successful outcomes in Internet-delivered psychological treatments.

  9. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  10. Assessing the reliability of predictive activity coefficient models for molecules consisting of several functional groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. Gerber

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the most successful predictive models for activity coefficients are those based on functional groups such as UNIFAC. In contrast, these models require a large amount of experimental data for the determination of their parameter matrix. A more recent alternative is the models based on COSMO, for which only a small set of universal parameters must be calibrated. In this work, a recalibrated COSMO-SAC model was compared with the UNIFAC (Do model employing experimental infinite dilution activity coefficient data for 2236 non-hydrogen-bonding binary mixtures at different temperatures. As expected, UNIFAC (Do presented better overall performance, with a mean absolute error of 0.12 ln-units against 0.22 for our COSMO-SAC implementation. However, in cases involving molecules with several functional groups or when functional groups appear in an unusual way, the deviation for UNIFAC was 0.44 as opposed to 0.20 for COSMO-SAC. These results show that COSMO-SAC provides more reliable predictions for multi-functional or more complex molecules, reaffirming its future prospects.

  11. On the reliability of predictions of geomechanical response - project Cosa in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knowles, N.C.; Lowe, M.J.S.; Come, B.

    1990-01-01

    Project COSA (Comparison of computer codes for Salt) was set up by the CEC as international benchmark exercise to compare the reliability of predictions of thermo-mechanical response of HLW repositories in salt. The first phase (COSA I) was conducted between 1984-1986 and attention was directed at code verification issues. The second phase (COSA II), carried out in the period 1986-1988, addressed code validation and other issues. Specifically, a series of experimental heat and pressure tests carried out at the Asse Mine in Wast Germany were modelled and predictions of the thermo-mechanical behaviour were compared. Ten European organisations participated. A key feature of this exercise was that, as far as possible, the calculations were performed blind (i.e. without any knowledge of the observed behaviour) using the best information available a priori, to describe the physical situation to be modelled. Interest centred around the various constitutive models (of material behaviour) for rock-salt and the assumptions about the in situ state of stress. The paper gives an overview of the project, presents some broad conclusions and attempts to assess their significance. 17 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  12. Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

    2015-09-01

    To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

  13. On which term is the prediction of the behaviour of glass necessary and reliable?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, J.

    1997-01-01

    The author questions the ethics of the deep underground storage of high-level radioactive wastes. The time periods that are considered for the confinement are so long that it is completely impossible to predict the way of life of people at that time and the level of knowledge they will have reached. There is a total agreement about the ethics principle of not jeopardizing life and environment of future generations but the difficulty is to draw the limits of this protection. In the regulations of most countries 2 periods of time are defined: the first 500 years and 10.000 years. 500 years is the period of high heat releases due to the decay of most fission products and is also a reasonable time during which the confining site (structures and packages) stays accessible. 10.000 years is considered as the period of time during which predictions are reliable, beyond this time uncertainties become too important and more and more numerous. (A.C.)

  14. Reliability of steam-turbine rotors. Task 1. Lifetime prediction analysis system. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nair, P.K.; Pennick, H.G.; Peters, J.E.; Wells, C.H.

    1982-12-01

    Task 1 of RP 502, Reliability of Steam Turbine Rotors, resulted in the development of a computerized lifetime prediction analysis system (STRAP) for the automatic evaluation of rotor integrity based upon the results of a boresonic examination of near-bore defects. Concurrently an advanced boresonic examination system (TREES), designed to acquire data automatically for lifetime analysis, was developed and delivered to the maintenance shop of a major utility. This system and a semi-automated, state-of-the-art system (BUCS) were evaluated on two retired rotors as part of the Task 2 effort. A modified nonproprietary version of STRAP, called SAFER, is now available for rotor lifetime prediction analysis. STRAP and SAFER share a common fracture analysis postprocessor for rapid evaluation of either conventional boresonic amplitude data or TREES cell data. The final version of this postprocessor contains general stress intensity correlations for elliptical cracks in a radial stress gradient and provision for elastic-plastic instability of the ligament between an imbedded crack and the bore surface. Both linear elastic and ligament rupture models were developed for rapid analysis of linkup within three-dimensional clusters of defects. Bore stress-rupture criteria are included, but a creep-fatigue crack growth data base is not available. Physical and mechanical properties of air-melt 1CrMoV forgings are built into the program; however, only bounding values of fracture toughness versus temperature are available. Owing to the lack of data regarding the probability of flaw detection for the boresonic systems and of quantitative verification of the flaw linkup analysis, automatic evlauation of boresonic results is not recommended, and the lifetime prediction system is currently restricted to conservative, deterministic analysis of specified flaw geometries

  15. Assimilation of satellite data to increase the reliability of the wave predictions in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

    2015-04-01

    . The results provided by the present work show that the data assimilation approach implemented leads to a significant enhancement of the reliability of the numerical wave predictions. The work is still ongoing, and besides the fact that all the satellites are now considered for assimilation, the scheme is also adapted in order to be able to provide forecast products. Keywords: Black Sea, wave models, SWAN, data assimilation, satellite data. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of National Education, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0089 (project DAMWAVE).

  16. HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein?protein interactions from more than 100 species

    OpenAIRE

    L?pez, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

    2015-01-01

    HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein?protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein?protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of p...

  17. A pediatric FOUR score coma scale: interrater reliability and predictive validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaikowski, Brianna L; Liang, Hong; Stewart, C Todd

    2014-04-01

    The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a coma scale that consists of four components (eye and motor response, brainstem reflexes, and respiration). It was originally validated among the adult population and recently in a pediatric population. To enhance clinical assessment of pediatric intensive care unit patients, including those intubated and/or sedated, at our children's hospital, we modified the FOUR Score Scale for this population. This modified scale would provide many of the same advantages as the original, such as interrater reliability, simplicity, and elimination of the verbal component that is not compatible with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), creating a more valuable neurological assessment tool for the nursing community. Our goal was to potentially provide greater information than the formally used GCS when assessing critically ill, neurologically impaired patients, including those sedated and/or intubated. Experienced pediatric intensive care unit nurses were trained as "expert raters." Two different nurses assessed each subject using the Pediatric FOUR Score Scale (PFSS), GCS, and Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale at three different time points. Data were compared with the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (PCPC) assessed by another nurse. Our hypothesis was that the PFSS and PCPC should highly correlate and the GCS and PCPC should correlate lower. Study results show that the PFSS is excellent for interrater reliability for trained nurse-rater pairs and prediction of poor outcome and in-hospital mortality, under various situations, but there were no statistically significant differences between the PFSS and the GCS. However, the PFSS does have the potential to provide greater neurological assessment in the intubated and/or sedated patient based on the outcomes of our study.

  18. Potential Energy Flexibility for a Hot-Water Based Heating System in Smart Buildings Via Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Awadelrahman M. A.; Zong, Yi; Mihet-Popa, Lucian

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies the potential of shifting the heating energy consumption in a residential building to low price periods based on varying electricity price signals suing Economic Model Predictive Control strategy. The investigated heating system consists of a heat pump incorporated with a hot...... water tank as active thermal energy storage, where two optimization problems are integrated together to optimize both the heat pump electricity consumption and the building heating consumption. A sensitivity analysis for the system flexibility is examined. The results revealed that the proposed...

  19. Improving Predictions with Reliable Extrapolation Schemes and Better Understanding of Factorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    More, Sushant N.

    New insights into the inter-nucleon interactions, developments in many-body technology, and the surge in computational capabilities has led to phenomenal progress in low-energy nuclear physics in the past few years. Nonetheless, many calculations still lack a robust uncertainty quantification which is essential for making reliable predictions. In this work we investigate two distinct sources of uncertainty and develop ways to account for them. Harmonic oscillator basis expansions are widely used in ab-initio nuclear structure calculations. Finite computational resources usually require that the basis be truncated before observables are fully converged, necessitating reliable extrapolation schemes. It has been demonstrated recently that errors introduced from basis truncation can be taken into account by focusing on the infrared and ultraviolet cutoffs induced by a truncated basis. We show that a finite oscillator basis effectively imposes a hard-wall boundary condition in coordinate space. We accurately determine the position of the hard-wall as a function of oscillator space parameters, derive infrared extrapolation formulas for the energy and other observables, and discuss the extension of this approach to higher angular momentum and to other localized bases. We exploit the duality of the harmonic oscillator to account for the errors introduced by a finite ultraviolet cutoff. Nucleon knockout reactions have been widely used to study and understand nuclear properties. Such an analysis implicitly assumes that the effects of the probe can be separated from the physics of the target nucleus. This factorization between nuclear structure and reaction components depends on the renormalization scale and scheme, and has not been well understood. But it is potentially critical for interpreting experiments and for extracting process-independent nuclear properties. We use a class of unitary transformations called the similarity renormalization group (SRG) transformations to

  20. Empirical models for end-use properties prediction of LDPE: application in the flexible plastic packaging industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Carolina Burgos Costa

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work is to develop empirical models to predict end use properties of low density polyethylene (LDPE resins as functions of two intrinsic properties easily measured in the polymers industry. The most important properties for application in the flexible plastic packaging industry were evaluated experimentally for seven commercial polymer grades. Statistical correlation analysis was performed for all variables and used as the basis for proper choice of inputs to each model output. Intrinsic properties selected for resin characterization are fluidity index (FI, which is essentially an indirect measurement of viscosity and weight average molecular weight (MW, and density. In general, models developed are able to reproduce and predict experimental data within experimental accuracy and show that a significant number of end use properties improve as the MW and density increase. Optical properties are mainly determined by the polymer morphology.

  1. HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein-protein interactions from more than 100 species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

    2015-01-01

    HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  2. Software reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bendell, A

    1986-01-01

    Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

  3. Heat tracing with flexible metal hoses. New calculation program for reliable and economic design; Begleitheizung mit flexiblen Metallschlaeuchen. Neues Berechnungsprogramm fuer zuverlaessige und wirtschaftliche Auslegung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeger, B. [Witzenmann GmbH, Pforzheim (Germany)

    2003-07-01

    Heat tracing does not only allow the transport of chocolate through pipe systems; particularly in chemical plants it ensures a stable viscosity of the transported media or protects it from freezing. By using flexible metal hoses instead of rigid copper or stainless steel pipes, the installation costs can be reduced considerably. Until now, no verified fundamental design principles or calculation programs for heat tracing with metal hoses were available. However, these are essential for a reliable and economical operation, as well as for a minimisation of the investment costs. Based on extensive field and laboratory measurements, a dedicated calculation model has now been established and verified. (orig.) [German] Begleitheizungen ermoeglichen nicht nur bei Schokolade den Transport durch Rohrleitungen. Vor allem in chemischen Anlagen erhalten sie die Viskositaet der transportierten Medien oder schuetzen gegen Einfrieren. Durch Verwendung von flexiblen Metallschlaeuchen anstelle von Glattrohren aus Kupfer oder Edelstahl laesst sich der Montageaufwand betraechtlich reduzieren. Fuer diese Metallschlauch-Begleitheizungen gab es bisher keine verifizierten Auslegungsgrundlagen oder Berechnungsprogramme. Fuer eine zuverlaessigen und wirtschaftlichen Betrieb sowie eine Minimierung der Investitionskosten sind diese jedoch unerlaesslich. Nun wurde auf der Basis umfangreicher Betriebs- und Labormessungen ein Berechnungsmodell erstellt und verifiziert. (orig.)

  4. Reliability and Lifetime Prediction of Remote Phosphor Plates in Solid-State Lighting Applications Using Accelerated Degradation Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yazdan Mehr, M.; van Driel, W.D.; Zhang, G.Q.

    2015-01-01

    A methodology, based on accelerated degradation testing, is developed to predict the lifetime of remote phosphor plates used in solid-state lighting (SSL) applications. Both thermal stress and light intensity are used to accelerate degradation reaction in remote phosphor plates. A reliability model,

  5. [Reliability of the PROFUND index to predict 4-year mortality in polypathological patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez-Manglano, Jesús; Del Corral Beamonte, Esther; Ramos Ibáñez, Rosa; Lambán Aranda, María Pilar; Toyas Miazza, Carla; Rodero Roldán, María Del Mar; Ortiz Domingo, Concepción; Munilla López, Eulalia; de Escalante Yangüela, Begoña

    2016-09-16

    To determine the usefullness of the PROFUND index to assess the risk of global death after 4 years in polypathological patients. Multicenter prospective cohort (Internal Medicine and Geriatrics) study. Polypathological patients admitted between March 1st and June 30th 2011 were included. For each patient, data concerning age, sex, living at home or in a nursing residence, polypathology categories, Charlson, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs, hemoglobin and creatinine values were gathered, and the PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 4 years. We included 441 patients, 324 from Internal Medicine and 117 from Geriatrics, with a mean age of 80.9 (8.7) years. Of them, 245 (55.6%) were women. Heart (62.7%), neurological (41.4%) and respiratory (37.3%) diseases were the most frequent. Geriatrics inpatients were older and more dependants and presented greater cognitive deterioration. After 4 years, 335 (76%) patients died. Mortality was associated with age, dyspnoea, Barthel index<60, delirium, advanced neoplasia and≥4 admissions in the last year. The area under the curve of the PROFUND index was 0.748, 95% CI 0.689-0.806, P<.001 in Internal Medicine and 0.517, 95% CI 0.369-0.666, P=.818 in Geriatrics patients, respectively. The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting long-term global mortality in polypathological patients from Internal Medicine but not from Geriatrics departments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Complex proximal humerus fractures: Hertel's criteria reliability to predict head necrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campochiaro, G; Rebuzzi, M; Baudi, P; Catani, F

    2015-09-01

    The risk of post-traumatic humeral head avascular necrosis (AVN), regardless of the treatment, has a high reported incidence. In 2004, Hertel et al. stated that the most relevant predictors of ischemia after intracapsular fracture treated with osteosynthesis are the calcar length, medial hinge integrity and some specific fracture types. Based on Hertel's model, the purpose of this study is to evaluate both its reliability and weaknesses in our series of 267 fractures, assessing how the anatomical configuration of fracture, the quality of reduction and its maintenance were predictive of osteonecrosis development, and so to suggest a treatment choice algorithm. A retrospective study, level of evidence IV, was conducted to duly assess the radiographic features of 267 fractures treated from 2004 to 2010 following Hertel's criteria treated with open reduction and internal fixation by angular stability plates and screws. The average age was 65.2 years. The average follow-up was 28.3 ± 17.0 months. The percentage of AVN, the quality and maintenance of reduction obtained during surgery were evaluated. The AVN incidence was 3.7 %. No significant correlation with gender, age and fracture type was found. At the last follow-up X-ray, only 30 % presented all Hertel's good predictors in the AVN group, 4.7 % in the non-AVN group (p AVN group, it was poor in 50 %; while in the non-AVN group, it was poor in 3.4 % (p AVN were symptomatic, and three needed a second surgery. Hertel's criteria are important in the surgical planning, but they are not sufficient: an accurate evaluation of the calcar area fracture in three planes is required. All fractures involving calcar area should be studied with CT.

  7. A flexible Bayesian assessment for the expected impact of data on prediction confidence for optimal sampling designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leube, Philipp; Geiges, Andreas; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2010-05-01

    Incorporating hydrogeological data, such as head and tracer data, into stochastic models of subsurface flow and transport helps to reduce prediction uncertainty. Considering limited financial resources available for the data acquisition campaign, information needs towards the prediction goal should be satisfied in a efficient and task-specific manner. For finding the best one among a set of design candidates, an objective function is commonly evaluated, which measures the expected impact of data on prediction confidence, prior to their collection. An appropriate approach to this task should be stochastically rigorous, master non-linear dependencies between data, parameters and model predictions, and allow for a wide variety of different data types. Existing methods fail to fulfill all these requirements simultaneously. For this reason, we introduce a new method, denoted as CLUE (Cross-bred Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator), that derives the essential distributions and measures of data utility within a generalized, flexible and accurate framework. The method makes use of Bayesian GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator) and extends it to an optimal design method by marginalizing over the yet unknown data values. Operating in a purely Bayesian Monte-Carlo framework, CLUE is a strictly formal information processing scheme free of linearizations. It provides full flexibility associated with the type of measurements (linear, non-linear, direct, indirect) and accounts for almost arbitrary sources of uncertainty (e.g. heterogeneity, geostatistical assumptions, boundary conditions, model concepts) via stochastic simulation and Bayesian model averaging. This helps to minimize the strength and impact of possible subjective prior assumptions, that would be hard to defend prior to data collection. Our study focuses on evaluating two different uncertainty measures: (i) expected conditional variance and (ii) expected relative entropy of a given prediction goal. The

  8. An overview of the reliability prediction related aspects of high power IGBTs in wind power applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busca, Christian; Teodorescu, Remus; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2011-01-01

    Reliability is becoming more and more important as the size and number of installed Wind Turbines (WTs) increases. Very high reliability is especially important for offshore WTs because the maintenance and repair of such WTs in case of failures can be very expensive. WT manufacturers need...

  9. Reliability Evaluation on Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 617 for a Very High Temperature Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Hong, Sung-Deok; Kim, Yong-Wan; Park, Jae-Young; Kim, Seon-Jin

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the reliability of creep rupture life under service conditions of Alloy 617, which is considered as one of the candidate materials for use in a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) system. A Z-parameter, which represents the deviation of creep rupture data from the master curve, was used for the reliability analysis of the creep rupture data of Alloy 617. A Service-condition Creep Rupture Interference (SCRI) model, which can consider both the scattering of the creep rupture data and the fluctuations of temperature and stress under any service conditions, was also used for evaluating the reliability of creep rupture life. The statistical analysis showed that the scattering of creep rupture data based on Z-parameter was supported by normal distribution. The values of reliability decreased rapidly with increasing amplitudes of temperature and stress fluctuations. The results established that the reliability decreased with an increasing service time.

  10. Model Predictive Control for Flexible Power Consumption of Large-Scale Refrigeration Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shafiei, Seyed Ehsan; Stoustrup, Jakob; Rasmussen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    A model predictive control (MPC) scheme is introduced to directly control the electrical power consumption of large-scale refrigeration systems. Deviation from the baseline of the consumption is corresponded to the storing and delivering of thermal energy. By virtue of such correspondence...

  11. VALIDITY OF GARBER MODEL IN PREDICTING PAVEMENT CONDITION INDEX OF FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT IN KERBALA CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussein A. Ewadh

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Pavement Condition Index (PCI is one of the important basics in pavement maintenance management system (PMMS, and it is used to evaluate the current and future pavement condition. This importantance in decision making to limit the maintenance needs, types of treatment, and maintenance priority. The aim of this research is to estimate the PCI value for flexible pavement urban roads in the study area (kerbala city by using Garber et al. developed model. Based on previous researches, data are collected for variables that have a significant impact on pavement condition. Data for pavement age (AGE, average daily traffic (ADT, and structural number (SN were collected for 44 sections in the network roads. A field survey (destructive test (core test and laboratory test (Marshall Test were used to determine the capacity of structure layer of pavement (SN. The condition index (CI output from a developed model was compared with the PCI output of PAVER 6.5.7 by using statistical analysis test. The developed model overestimates value of CI rather than PCI estimated from PAVER 6.5.7 due to statistical test to a 95% degree of confidence, (R = 0.771 for 44 sections (arterial and collector.

  12. A comparative reliability and performance study of different stent designs in terms of mechanical properties: foreshortening, recoil, radial force, and flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong Bin; Choi, Hyuk; Joo, Sang Min; Kim, Han Ki; Shin, Jae Hee; Hwang, Min Ho; Choi, Jaesoon; Kim, Dong-Gon; Lee, Kwang Ho; Lim, Chun Hak; Yoo, Sun Kook; Lee, Heung-Man; Sun, Kyung

    2013-04-01

    This study seeks to improve the mechanical performance of stents by conducting reliability performance testing and finite element method (FEM)-based simulations for coronary stents. Three commercially available stent designs and our own new design were tested to measure the factors affecting performance, specifically foreshortening, recoil, radial force, and flexibility. The stents used in the present experiments were 3 mm in working diameter and 18 mm of working length. The results of the experiments indicate that the foreshortening of stents A, B, C, and our new design, D, was equivalent to 2.25, 0.67, 0.46, and 0.41%, respectively. The recoil of stents A, B, C, and D was 6.00, 4.35, 3.50, and 4.36%, respectively. Parallel plate radial force measurements were A, 3.72 ± 0.28 N; B, 3.81 ± 0.32 N; C, 4.35 ± 0.18 N; and D, 4.02 ± 0.24 N. Radial forces determined by applying uniform pressure in the circumferential direction were A, 28.749 ± 0.81 N; B, 32.231 ± 1.80 N; C, 34.522 ± 3.06 N; and D, 42.183 ± 2.84 N. The maximum force of crimped stent at 2.2-mm deflection was 1.01 ± 0.08 N, 0.82 ± 0.08 N, 0.92 ± 0.12 N, and 0.68 ± 0.07 N for each of stents A, B, C and D. The results of this study enabled us to identify several factors to enhance the performance of stents. In comparing these stents, we found that our design, stent D, which was designed by a collaborative team from seven universities, performed better than the commercial stents across all parameter of foreshortening, recoil, radial force, and flexibility. © 2013, Copyright the Authors. Artificial Organs © 2013, International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale

  14. Nonparametric predictive inference for reliability of a k-out-of-m:G system with multiple component types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboalkhair, Ahmad M.; Coolen, Frank P.A.; MacPhee, Iain M.

    2014-01-01

    Nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability has recently been presented, with specific focus on k-out-of-m:G systems. The reliability of systems is quantified by lower and upper probabilities of system functioning, given binary test results on components, taking uncertainty about component functioning and indeterminacy due to limited test information explicitly into account. Thus far, systems considered were series configurations of subsystems, with each subsystem i a k i -out-of-m i :G system which consisted of only one type of components. Key results are briefly summarized in this paper, and as an important generalization new results are presented for a single k-out-of-m:G system consisting of components of multiple types. The important aspects of redundancy and diversity for such systems are discussed. - Highlights: • New results on nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability. • Prediction of system reliability based on test data for components. • New insights on system redundancy optimization and diversity. • Components that appear inferior in tests may be included to enhance redundancy

  15. Model predictive control technologies for efficient and flexible power consumption in refrigeration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Larsen, Lars F. S.; Edlund, Kristian

    2012-01-01

    . In this paper we describe a novel economic-optimizing Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme that reduces operating costs by utilizing the thermal storage capabilities. A nonlinear optimization tool to handle a non-convex cost function is utilized for simulations with validated scenarios. In this way we...... explicitly address advantages from daily variations in outdoor temperature and electricity prices. Secondly, we formulate a new cost function that enables the refrigeration system to contribute with ancillary services to the balancing power market. This involvement can be economically beneficial...... of the system models allows us to describe and handle model as well as prediction uncertainties in this framework. This means we can demonstrate means for robustifying the performance of the controller....

  16. B220 analysis with the local lymph node assay: proposal for a more flexible prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Catherine J; Dearman, Rebecca J; Kimber, Ian; Ryan, Cindy A; Gerberick, G Frank; Lalko, Jon; Api, Anne Marie

    2007-01-01

    The mouse local lymph node assay (LLNA) has been developed and validated for the identification of chemicals that have the potential to induce skin sensitisation. In common with other predictive test methods the accuracy of the LLNA is not absolute and experience has revealed that a few chemicals, including for instance a minority of skin irritants, may elicit false-positive reactions in the assay. To improve further the performance of the LLNA, and to eliminate or reduce false-positives, there has been interest in an adjunct method in which the ability of chemicals to cause increases in the frequency of B220(+) lymphocytes in skin-draining lymph nodes is measured. Previous studies suggest that the use of B220 analyses aligned with the standard LLNA may serve to distinguish further between contact allergens and skin irritants. In the original predictive model, chemicals were regarded as being skin sensitisers if they were able to induce a 1.25-fold or greater increase in the percentage of B220(+) cells within lymph nodes compared with concurrent vehicle controls. Although this first prediction model has proven useful, in the light of more recent experience, and specifically as a consequence of some variability observed in the frequency of B220(+) lymphocytes in nodes taken from vehicle control-treated animals, it is timely now to reconsider and refine the model. As a result a new prediction model is proposed in which reliance on the use of absolute thresholds is reduced, and in which small changes in control values can be better accommodated. (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Prediction of mutational tolerance in HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase using flexible backbone protein design.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabeth Humphris-Narayanan

    Full Text Available Predicting which mutations proteins tolerate while maintaining their structure and function has important applications for modeling fundamental properties of proteins and their evolution; it also drives progress in protein design. Here we develop a computational model to predict the tolerated sequence space of HIV-1 protease reachable by single mutations. We assess the model by comparison to the observed variability in more than 50,000 HIV-1 protease sequences, one of the most comprehensive datasets on tolerated sequence space. We then extend the model to a second protein, reverse transcriptase. The model integrates multiple structural and functional constraints acting on a protein and uses ensembles of protein conformations. We find the model correctly captures a considerable fraction of protease and reverse-transcriptase mutational tolerance and shows comparable accuracy using either experimentally determined or computationally generated structural ensembles. Predictions of tolerated sequence space afforded by the model provide insights into stability-function tradeoffs in the emergence of resistance mutations and into strengths and limitations of the computational model.

  18. The occipitofrontal circumference: reliable prediction of the intracranial volume in children with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijken, Bianca Francisca Maria; den Ottelander, Bianca Kelly; van Veelen, Marie-Lise Charlotte; Lequin, Maarten Hans; Mathijssen, Irene Margreet Jacqueline

    2015-05-01

    OBJECT Patients with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis are characterized by the premature fusion of one or more cranial sutures. These patients are at risk for developing elevated intracranial pressure (ICP). There are several factors known to contribute to elevated ICP in these patients, including craniocerebral disproportion, hydrocephalus, venous hypertension, and obstructive sleep apnea. However, the causal mechanism is unknown, and patients develop elevated ICP even after skull surgery. In clinical practice, the occipitofrontal circumference (OFC) is used as an indirect measure for intracranial volume (ICV), to evaluate skull growth. However, it remains unknown whether OFC is a reliable predictor of ICV in patients with a severe skull deformity. Therefore, in this study the authors evaluated the relation between ICV and OFC. METHODS Eighty-four CT scans obtained in 69 patients with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis treated at the Erasmus University Medical Center-Sophia Children's Hospital were included. The ICV was calculated based on CT scans by using autosegmentation with an HU threshold CT scans and OFC measurements were matched based on a maximum amount of the time that was allowed between these examinations, which was dependent on age. A Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to evaluate the correlations between OFC and ICV. The predictive value of OFC, age, and sex on ICV was then further evaluated using a univariate linear mixed model. The significant factors in the univariate analysis were subsequently entered in a multivariate mixed model. RESULTS The correlations found between OFC and ICV were r = 0.908 for the total group (p < 0.001), r = 0.981 for Apert (p < 0.001), r = 0.867 for Crouzon-Pfeiffer (p < 0.001), r = 0.989 for Muenke (p < 0.001), r = 0.858 for Saethre- Chotzen syndrome (p = 0.001), and r = 0.917 for complex craniosynostosis (p < 0.001). Age and OFC were significant predictors of ICV in the univariate linear mixed

  19. A Tutorial on Nonlinear Time-Series Data Mining in Engineering Asset Health and Reliability Prediction: Concepts, Models, and Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Dong

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of engineering asset management is to optimize assets service delivery potential and to minimize the related risks and costs over their entire life through the development and application of asset health and usage management in which the health and reliability prediction plays an important role. In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset is generally described as monitored nonlinear time-series data and subject to high levels of uncertainty and unpredictability. It has been proved that application of data mining techniques is very useful for extracting relevant features which can be used as parameters for assets diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, a tutorial on nonlinear time-series data mining in engineering asset health and reliability prediction is given. Besides that an overview on health and reliability prediction techniques for engineering assets is covered, this tutorial will focus on concepts, models, algorithms, and applications of hidden Markov models (HMMs and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs in engineering asset health prognosis, which are representatives of recent engineering asset health prediction techniques.

  20. A Distributed Model Predictive Control approach for the integration of flexible loads, storage and renewables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrarini, Luca; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Costanzo, Giuseppe Tommaso

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an innovative solution based on distributed model predictive controllers to integrate the control and management of energy consumption, energy storage, PV and wind generation at customer side. The overall goal is to enable an advanced prosumer to autoproduce part of the energy...... he needs with renewable sources and, at the same time, to optimally exploit the thermal and electrical storages, to trade off its comfort requirements with different pricing schemes (including real-time pricing), and apply optimal control techniques rather than sub-optimal heuristics....

  1. Reliability prediction of large fuel cell stack based on structure stress analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L. F.; Liu, B.; Wu, C. W.

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability of Proton Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stack by designing the clamping force and the thickness difference between the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the gasket. The stack reliability is directly determined by the component reliability, which is affected by the material property and contact stress. The component contact stress is a random variable because it is usually affected by many uncertain factors in the production and clamping process. We have investigated the influences of parameter variation coefficient on the probability distribution of contact stress using the equivalent stiffness model and the first-order second moment method. The optimal contact stress to make the component stay in the highest level reliability is obtained by the stress-strength interference model. To obtain the optimal contact stress between the contact components, the optimal thickness of the component and the stack clamping force are optimally designed. Finally, a detailed description is given how to design the MEA and gasket dimensions to obtain the highest stack reliability. This work can provide a valuable guidance in the design of stack structure for a high reliability of fuel cell stack.

  2. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  3. Dataset size and composition impact the reliability of performance benchmarks for peptide-MHC binding predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Yohan; Sidney, John; Buus, Søren

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is important to accurately determine the performance of peptide: MHC binding predictions, as this enables users to compare and choose between different prediction methods and provides estimates of the expected error rate. Two common approaches to determine prediction performance...... are cross-validation, in which all available data are iteratively split into training and testing data, and the use of blind sets generated separately from the data used to construct the predictive method. In the present study, we have compared cross-validated prediction performances generated on our last...

  4. Predicting Flow Breakdown Probability and Duration in Stochastic Network Models: Impact on Travel Time Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Jing [ORNL; Mahmassani, Hani S. [Northwestern University, Evanston

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to produce random flow breakdown endogenously in a mesoscopic operational model, by capturing breakdown probability and duration. Based on previous research findings that probability of flow breakdown can be represented as a function of flow rate and the duration can be characterized by a hazard model. By generating random flow breakdown at various levels and capturing the traffic characteristics at the onset of the breakdown, the stochastic network simulation model provides a tool for evaluating travel time variability. The proposed model can be used for (1) providing reliability related traveler information; (2) designing ITS (intelligent transportation systems) strategies to improve reliability; and (3) evaluating reliability-related performance measures of the system.

  5. An overview of the IAEA Safety Series on procedures for evaluating the reliability of predictions made by environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.W.; Hofer, E.

    1987-10-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing a Safety Series publication on practical approaches for evaluating the reliability of the predictions made by environmental radiological assessment models. This publication identifies factors that affect the reliability of these predictions and discusses methods for quantifying uncertainty. Emphasis is placed on understanding the quantity of interest specified by the assessment question and distinguishing between stochastic variability and lack of knowledge about either the true value or the true distribution of values for quantity of interest. Among the many approaches discussed, model testing using independent data sets (model validation) is considered the best method for evaluating the accuracy in model predictions. Analytical and numerical methods for propagating the uncertainties in model parameters are presented and the strengths and weaknesses of model intercomparison exercises are also discussed. It is recognized that subjective judgment is employed throughout the entire modelling process, and quantitative reliability statements must be subjectively obtained when models are applied to different situations from those under which they have been tested. (6 refs.)

  6. Safety and reliability in the 90s: will past experience or prediction meet our needs?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, M.H.; Cox, R.F.

    1990-01-01

    Twenty-six papers are presented in the proceedings of the 1990 Safety and Reliability Society Symposium. The papers selected provide current thinking on improved methods for identification, quantification and management of risks based on the safety culture developed across a range of industries during the last decade. In particular organizational and management factors feature in a large number of the papers. Two papers on the safety of all the operating plants at Sellafield's irradiated nuclear fuel handling and reprocessing site and the selection of field component reliability data for use in nuclear safety studies are selected and indexed separately. (author)

  7. Feasibility, Reliability and Predictive Value Of In-Ambulance Heart Rate Variability Registration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yperzeele, Laetitia; van Hooff, Robbert-Jan; De Smedt, Ann; Nagels, Guy; Hubloue, Ives; De Keyser, Jacques; Brouns, Raf

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart rate variability (HRV) is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions. Objective We aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV

  8. Reliabilities of genomic prediction using combined reference data of the Nordic Red dairy cattle production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøndum, Rasmus Froberg; Rius-Vilarrasa, E; Strandén, I

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the possibility of increasing the reliability of direct genomic values (DGV) by combining reference opulations. The data were from 3,735 bulls from Danish, Swedish, and Finnish Red dairy cattle populations. Single nucleotide polymorphism markers were fitted as random varia...

  9. An Introduction To Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyoung Su

    1993-08-01

    This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

  10. Reliability of nine programs of topological predictions and their application to integral membrane channel and carrier proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Abhinay; Cho, Jaehoon; Ling, Sam; Reddy, Vamsee; Shlykov, Maksim; Saier, Milton H

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated topological predictions for nine different programs, HMMTOP, TMHMM, SVMTOP, DAS, SOSUI, TOPCONS, PHOBIUS, MEMSAT-SVM (hereinafter referred to as MEMSAT), and SPOCTOPUS. These programs were first evaluated using four large topologically well-defined families of secondary transporters, and the three best programs were further evaluated using topologically more diverse families of channels and carriers. In the initial studies, the order of accuracy was: SPOCTOPUS > MEMSAT > HMMTOP > TOPCONS > PHOBIUS > TMHMM > SVMTOP > DAS > SOSUI. Some families, such as the Sugar Porter Family (2.A.1.1) of the Major Facilitator Superfamily (MFS; TC #2.A.1) and the Amino Acid/Polyamine/Organocation (APC) Family (TC #2.A.3), were correctly predicted with high accuracy while others, such as the Mitochondrial Carrier (MC) (TC #2.A.29) and the K(+) transporter (Trk) families (TC #2.A.38), were predicted with much lower accuracy. For small, topologically homogeneous families, SPOCTOPUS and MEMSAT were generally most reliable, while with large, more diverse superfamilies, HMMTOP often proved to have the greatest prediction accuracy. We next developed a novel program, TM-STATS, that tabulates HMMTOP, SPOCTOPUS or MEMSAT-based topological predictions for any subdivision (class, subclass, superfamily, family, subfamily, or any combination of these) of the Transporter Classification Database (TCDB; www.tcdb.org) and examined the following subclasses: α-type channel proteins (TC subclasses 1.A and 1.E), secreted pore-forming toxins (TC subclass 1.C) and secondary carriers (subclass 2.A). Histograms were generated for each of these subclasses, and the results were analyzed according to subclass, family and protein. The results provide an update of topological predictions for integral membrane transport proteins as well as guides for the development of more reliable topological prediction programs, taking family-specific characteristics into account. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  11. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

    2006-01-01

    Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

  12. Climatic Reliability of Electronics: Early Prediction and Control of Contamination and humidity effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verdingovas, Vadimas

    were to a significant extent guided by the climatic reliability issues the electronic companies are currently facing. The research in this thesis is focused on the synergistic effects of process related contamination, humidity, potential bias, and PCBA design related aspects, while various tests...... assuming parasitic circuit due to water layer formation on the PCBA surface. The chapters 2-5 review the factors influencing the climatic reliability of electronics namely humidity interaction with materials and ionic contamination on the PCBA surface, common types and sources of ionic contamination...... in electronics, the test methods and techniques, and failure mechanisms related to climate and contamination. Chapter 6 summarizes the materials and experimental methods employed in this thesis. The results of various investigations are presented as individual research papers as published or in the draft form...

  13. Physical attraction to reliable, low variability nervous systems: Reaction time variability predicts attractiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Emily E; Saville, Christopher W N; Ward, Robert; Ramsey, Richard

    2017-01-01

    The human face cues a range of important fitness information, which guides mate selection towards desirable others. Given humans' high investment in the central nervous system (CNS), cues to CNS function should be especially important in social selection. We tested if facial attractiveness preferences are sensitive to the reliability of human nervous system function. Several decades of research suggest an operational measure for CNS reliability is reaction time variability, which is measured by standard deviation of reaction times across trials. Across two experiments, we show that low reaction time variability is associated with facial attractiveness. Moreover, variability in performance made a unique contribution to attractiveness judgements above and beyond both physical health and sex-typicality judgements, which have previously been associated with perceptions of attractiveness. In a third experiment, we empirically estimated the distribution of attractiveness preferences expected by chance and show that the size and direction of our results in Experiments 1 and 2 are statistically unlikely without reference to reaction time variability. We conclude that an operating characteristic of the human nervous system, reliability of information processing, is signalled to others through facial appearance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. New horizons in mouse immunoinformatics: reliable in silico prediction of mouse class I histocompatibility major complex peptide binding affinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Guan, Pingping; Doytchinova, Irini A; Flower, Darren R

    2004-11-21

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis is a main cornerstone of modern informatic disciplines. Predictive computational models, based on QSAR technology, of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding affinity have now become a vital component of modern day computational immunovaccinology. Historically, such approaches have been built around semi-qualitative, classification methods, but these are now giving way to quantitative regression methods. The additive method, an established immunoinformatics technique for the quantitative prediction of peptide-protein affinity, was used here to identify the sequence dependence of peptide binding specificity for three mouse class I MHC alleles: H2-D(b), H2-K(b) and H2-K(k). As we show, in terms of reliability the resulting models represent a significant advance on existing methods. They can be used for the accurate prediction of T-cell epitopes and are freely available online ( http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred).

  15. Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

    2017-12-01

    Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

  16. Predicting Proliferation: High Reliability Forecasting Models of Nuclear Proliferation as a Policy & Analytical Aid

    OpenAIRE

    Center on Contemporary Conflict; Gartzke, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Performer: University of California at San Diego Project Lead: Erik Gartzke Project Cost: $121,000 FY15-16 Objective: Scholars have spent decades studying and explaining nuclear proliferation. This project will develop a model to predict the behavior of states regarding their pursuit and acquisition of nuclear weapons. An accurate prediction model will allow for action against potential suppliers, interdiction of nuclear trade, intelligence collection on covert nuclea...

  17. Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  19. A New Approach for Reliability Life Prediction of Rail Vehicle Axle by Considering Vibration Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meral Bayraktar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vibration on the axle has been considered. Vibration measurements at different speeds have been performed on the axle of a running rail vehicle to figure out displacement, acceleration, time, and frequency response. Based on the experimental works, equivalent stress has been used to find out life of the axles for 90% and 10% reliability. Calculated life values of the rail vehicle axle have been compared with the real life data and it is found that the life of a vehicle axle taking into account the vibration effects is in good agreement with the real life of the axle.

  20. On the accuracy and reliability of predictions by control-system theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbon, W T; Copeland, K E; Dyer, V R; Harman, W K; Mosley, B L

    1990-12-01

    In three experiments we used control-system theory (CST) to predict the results of tracking tasks on which people held a handle to keep a cursor even with a target on a computer screen. 10 people completed a total of 104 replications of the task. In each experiment, there were two conditions: in one, only the handle affected the position of the cursor; in the other, a random disturbance also affected the cursor. From a person's performance during Condition 1, we derived constants used in the CST model to predict the results of Condition 2. In two experiments, predictions occurred a few minutes before Condition 2; in one experiment, the delay was 1 yr. During a 1-min. experimental run, the positions of handle and cursor, produced by the person, were each sampled 1800 times, once every 1/30 sec. During a modeling run, the model predicted the positions of the handle and target for each of the 1800 intervals sampled in the experimental run. In 104 replications, the mean correlation between predicted and actual positions of the handle was .996; SD = .002.

  1. GenMol trademark supramolecular descriptors predicting reliable sensitivity of energetic compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benazet, Stephane; Jacob, Guy [SNPE Materiaux Energetiques, Vert Le Petit (France); Pepe, Gerard [CINaM UPR-CNRS 3118, Campus de Luminy Case, Marseille (France)

    2009-04-15

    Structure/activity relationship methodology has been applied to the problem of the prediction of the energetic molecule's sensitivity. This parameter knowledge is of great importance to increase the safety of operations in the field of synthesis and manipulation of such compounds. It has been shown that descriptors of the solid state interactions and surface topology issued from GenMol {sup trademark} software calculations greatly enhanced the correlation between measured and predicted sensitivity. As the structural parameters used to establish the descriptors are experimental ones, their physical significance is particularly preserved which allows to give a good prediction for impact or friction sensitivity by the so defined descriptors. (Abstract Copyright [2009], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  2. Accuracy and Reliability in the Prediction of End-of-Life Performance of Solar Generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapp, Etienne

    2008-09-01

    The end-of-life power analysis of solar arrays is calculated using a combination of arithmetic and root square sums of loss factors. These loss factors are sometimes linked to degradations, sometimes linked to uncertainties. The uncertainties of the degradations are taken into account considering contractual "worst cases". This paper will put the first stones for a move "metrological" evaluation of the probable performance associated with a standard uncertainty. The turn from silicon to triple junction solar cells induces some changes in the degradation parameters of solar arrays: * The triple junction cells are more sensitive to UV darkening than silicon ones. * The cell voltage is higher and the current is lower. Then the cell strings are shorter, and there are more strings in parallel. This induces some changes in the reliability analyses and risk management. * The failure modes and failure rates of these cells have to be compared and discussed. We try to define improved rules to design solar arrays for end of life performance, for a better knowledge of the margins and a better reliability.

  3. Predictive Reliability Assessment of the Automatic Clutch on a Primary Sodium Pump Drive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westwell, P.

    1975-01-01

    This paper examines the reliability of a group of three clutch couplings each mounted between a pony motor and the main drive for the primary sodium pumps. The sodium pumps specification requires that continuously running AC pony motors be fitted to give a guaranteed 10% drive to the pumps in the event of a main supply failure. The drive to the main shaft is via 3 : 1 reduction gearing such that a six pole pony motor running at 300 rpm would drive the main shaft at 100 rpm i.e., 10% of its rated speed. In order that the pony motor drive could be permanently energised during normal operation a free wheeling clutch is fitted between the motor and the reduction gearing. The type of clutch chosen is. the Synchro-Self Shifting (SSS) clutch, shown in Figure 1. This type of clutch has proved itself under fairly onerous operating conditions, but is normally mounted on a horizontal driving shaft whereas in this case because of space limitations, it is necessary to mount it vertically. The reliability target set is that the chance of losing all three independent back-up pony motor drives on loss of main supplies should fall within the 10 -5 - 10 -6 band. Since the electrical supplies and other parts of the pony motor drives have been assessed within this target and some doubts expressed about the clutch it was now necessary to look at this in some detail

  4. Reliable B cell epitope predictions: impacts of method development and improved benchmarking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kringelum, Jens Vindahl; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2012-01-01

    biomedical applications such as; rational vaccine design, development of disease diagnostics and immunotherapeutics. However, experimental mapping of epitopes is resource intensive making in silico methods an appealing complementary approach. To date, the reported performance of methods for in silico mapping...... evaluation data set improved from 0.712 to 0.727. Our results thus demonstrate that given proper benchmark definitions, B-cell epitope prediction methods achieve highly significant predictive performances suggesting these tools to be a powerful asset in rational epitope discovery. The updated version...

  5. Prediction of Osteoporosis through Radiographic Assessment of Proximal Femoral Morphology and Texture in Elderly; is it Valid and Reliable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özkan Köse

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the best predictive radiographic measurement method to identify the presence of osteoporosis and test the inter-observer and intra-observer reliability and validity of these methods in postmenopausal women. Materials and Methods: Ninety-two elderly female patients who presented with hip pain were included. Hip radiographs were used to determine the values of Singh index (SI, canal-to-calcar ratio (CCR, and cortical thickness index (CTI. All measurements were performed by two independent observers on two separate occasions, at least 4 weeks apart. Bone mineral density (BMD was assessed by DEXA. In the first part of the analysis, reliability of the all measurement methods was tested. In the second part, correlation coefficient (Pearson r was used to determine the relationship between the measurement methods and BMD. Finally ROC curve analysis was performed to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and threshold values for each radiographic measurement method. Results: Intra-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.359 for observer A, and 0.224 for observer B. Inter-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.070 for observer A and 0.051 for observer B. The intra-observer and inter-observer reliability was good and excellent for CTI and CCR for both observers (ICC: 0.920 and ICC: 0.936. There was no correlation between SI and BMD (p=0.818. On the other hand, there was a significant correlation between CTI and CCR and BMD (p=0.001. All measured indices were significantly different (p<0.05 between osteoporotic and non-osteoporotic patients. CTI value less than 0.3 or CCR value less than 0.47 reflects the presence of osteoporosis with 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Conclusion: SI is not reliable and do not correlate with BMD. However, both CTI and CCR showed good and excellent reliability, and each index correlated well with the real BMD

  6. Serum interleukin -8 is not a reliable marker for prediction of vesicoureteral reflux in children with febrile urinary tract infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazl Mahyar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In view of the side effects of voiding cystourethrography (VCUG, identification of noninvasive markers predicting the presence of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR is important. This study was conducted to determine the predictive value of serum interleukin-8 (IL-8 in diagnosis of VUR in children with first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI. Materials and Methods: Eighty children with first febrile UTI were divided into two groups, with and without VUR, based on the results of VCUG. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value positive and negative likelihood ratio, and accuracy of IL-8 for prediction of VUR were investigated. Results: Of the 80 children with febrile UTI, 30 (37.5% had VUR. There was no significant difference between the children with and without VUR and also between low and high-grade VUR groups in terms of serum concentration of IL-8 (P>0.05. Based on ROC curve, the sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio positive, and accuracy of serum IL-8 was lower than those of erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed significant positive correlation only between erythrocyte sedimentation rate and VUR. Conclusions: This study showed no significant difference between the children with and without VUR in terms of the serum concentration of IL-8. Therefore, it seems that serum IL-8 is not a reliable marker for prediction of VUR.

  7. Prediction of sand production onset in petroleum reservoirs using a reliable classification approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Gharagheizi

    2017-06-01

    It is shown that the developed model can accurately predict the sand production in a real field. The results of this study indicates that implementation of LSSVM modeling can effectively help completion designers to make an on time sand control plan with least deterioration of production.

  8. Identification of the best DFT functionals for a reliable prediction of lignin vibrational properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barsberg, Soren

    2015-01-01

    Lignin is the most abundant aromatic plant polymer on earth. Useful information on its structure and interactions is gained by vibrational spectroscopy and relies on the quality of band assignments. B3LYP predictions were recently shown to support band assignments. Further progress calls...

  9. Are Available Models Reliable for Predicting the FRP Contribution to the Shear Resistance of RC Beams?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sas, G.; Täljsten, Björn; Barros, J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the trustworthiness of the existing theory for predicting the fiber-reinforced plastic contribution to the shear resistance of reinforced concrete beams is discussed. The most well-known shear models for external bonded reinforcement are presented, commented on, and compared...

  10. Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

  11. The nuclear power plant maintenance personnel reliability prediction (NPP/MPRP) effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.

    1982-01-01

    Human errors committed during maintenance activities are potentially a major contribution to the overall risk associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). An NRC-sponsored program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is attempting to develop a quantitative predictive technique to evaluate the contribution of maintenance errors to the overall NPP risk. The current work includes a survey of the requirements of potential users to ascertain the need for and content of the proposed quantitative model, plus an initial job/task analysis to determine the scope and applicability of various maintenance tasks. In addition, existing human reliability prediction models are being reviewed and assessed with respect to their applicability to NPP maintenance tasks. This paper discusses the status of the program and summarizes the results to date

  12. Reliability residual-life prediction method for thermal aging based on performance degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Xue Fei; Yu Weiwei; Ti Wenxin; Liu Xiaotian

    2013-01-01

    The paper makes the study of the nuclear power plant main pipeline. The residual-life of the main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods. Firstly, the thermal aging impact property degradation process of the main pipeline austenitic stainless steel has been analyzed by the accelerated thermal aging test data. Then, the thermal aging residual-life prediction model based on the impact property degradation data is built by Bayesian updating methods. Finally, these models are applied in practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project. Also, it provides a foundation for the scientific management of aging management of the main pipeline. (authors)

  13. The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yu-Wei; Lin, Keh-Chung; Korivi, Mallikarjuna; Lee, Tsong-Hai; Wu, Ching-Yi; Wu, Kuen-Yuh

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76). Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) and Medical Research Council (MRC) scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34) and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research. PMID:24743892

  14. The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wei Hsieh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG, and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76. Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA and Medical Research Council (MRC scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p < 0.05. After rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34 and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p < 0.05. Baseline 8-OHdG was significantly correlated with post-treatment FMA, MRC, and pain scores (r = −0.34, −0.31, and 0.25; p < 0.05, indicating its ability to predict functional outcomes. 8-OHdG levels were significantly decreased, and functional outcomes were improved after rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research.

  15. Is epicardial adipose tissue, assessed by echocardiography, a reliable method for visceral adipose tissue prediction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silaghi, Alina Cristina; Poantă, Laura; Valea, Ana; Pais, Raluca; Silaghi, Horatiu

    2011-03-01

    Epicardial adipose tissue is an ectopic fat storage at the heart surface in direct contact with the coronary arteries. It is considered a metabolically active tissue, being a local source of pro-inflammatory factors that contribute to the pathogenesis of coronary artery disease. The AIM of our study was to establish correlations between echocardiographic assessment of epicardial adipose tissue and anthropometric and ultrasound measurements of the central and peripheral fat depots. The study was conducted on 22 patients with or without coronaropathy. Epicardial adipose tissue was measured using Aloka Prosound α 10 machine with a 3.5-7.5 MHz variable-frequency transducer and subcutaneous and visceral fat with Esaote Megas GPX machine and 3.5-7.5 MHz variable frequency transducer. Epicardial adipose tissue measured by echocardiography is correlated with waist circumference (p < 0.05), visceral adipose tissue thickness measured by ultrasonography (US) and is not correlated with body mass index (p = 0.315), hip and thigh circumference or subcutaneous fat thickness measured by US. Our study confirms that US assessment of epicardial fat correlates with anthropometric and US measurements of the central fat, representing an indirect but reliable marker of the visceral fat.

  16. Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair

    2014-09-01

    Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours. In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters

  17. Microgravity spheroids as a reliable, long-term tool for predictive toxicology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fey, S. J.; Wrzesinski, Krzysztof

    2013-01-01

    those seen in vivo. Studies with 5 common drugs (acetaminophen, amiodarone, metformin, phenformin, and valproic acid) have shown that they are more predictive of lethally-toxic plasma levels in vivo than published studies using primary human hepatocytes. Shotgun proteomics has revealed that the gain...... this time they are metabolically stable for at least 24 days more; grow slowly (a doubling time of >20 days); produce physiological levels of urea, cholesterol and ATP; exhibit stable gene expression (for selected liver relevant genes); and can post translationally modify proteins in a manner which mirrors...

  18. Predictive Power of Family Cohesion and Flexibility on Children’s’ Self - Esteem and Happiness in Female High School Students in Shiraz, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Jahedi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract ‌Background & aim: The role of family in shaping affective and cognitive characteristics of children, especially girls, who the future health of community depends on their mental health, is evident. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictive power of family cohesion and flexibility on self-esteem and happiness of children in high school girl students in Shiraz. Methods: In the present correlational study design, 303 cases of Shiraz secondary girl students who lived with their parents were chosen through the multistage random cluster sampling method. They responded to questionnaires for consistency of family, positives flexibility, Cooper Smith Self-esteem and Oxford Happiness scale. The data were analyzed by Pearson correlation and multiple regressions. Results Family consistency had significant positive power predictive for criterion variables self-esteem and happiness (p <0.05, whereas the flexibility had no such significance. Conclusion: Quality of operation of parents, communication and interaction in family life is one of the best determinants of behavior, health and well-being of children, including their self-esteem and happiness. Key words: Family cohesion, Family flexibility, Self-esteem, Happiness, Child

  19. Performance of synchrotron x-ray monochromators under heat load: How reliable are the predictions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freund, A.K.; Hoszowska, J.; Migliore, J.-S.; Mocella, V.; Zhang, L.; Ferrero, C.

    2000-01-01

    With the ongoing development of insertion devices with smaller gaps the heat load generated by modern synchrotron sources increases continuously. To predict the overall performance of experiments on beam lines it is of crucial importance to be able to predict the efficiency of x-ray optics and in particular that of crystal monochromators. We report on a detailed comparison between theory and experiment for a water-cooled silicon crystal exposed to bending magnet radiation of up to 237 W total power and 1.3 W/mm2 power density. The thermal deformation has been calculated by the code ANSYS and its output has been injected into a finite difference code based on the Takagi-Taupin diffraction theory for distorted crystals. Several slit settings, filters and reflection orders were used to vary the geometrical conditions and the x-ray penetration depth in the crystal. In general, good agreement has been observed between the calculated and the observed values for the rocking curve width

  20. Sparse Power-Law Network Model for Reliable Statistical Predictions Based on Sampled Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander P. Kartun-Giles

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A projective network model is a model that enables predictions to be made based on a subsample of the network data, with the predictions remaining unchanged if a larger sample is taken into consideration. An exchangeable model is a model that does not depend on the order in which nodes are sampled. Despite a large variety of non-equilibrium (growing and equilibrium (static sparse complex network models that are widely used in network science, how to reconcile sparseness (constant average degree with the desired statistical properties of projectivity and exchangeability is currently an outstanding scientific problem. Here we propose a network process with hidden variables which is projective and can generate sparse power-law networks. Despite the model not being exchangeable, it can be closely related to exchangeable uncorrelated networks as indicated by its information theory characterization and its network entropy. The use of the proposed network process as a null model is here tested on real data, indicating that the model offers a promising avenue for statistical network modelling.

  1. Accurate and Reliable Prediction of the Binding Affinities of Macrocycles to Their Protein Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haoyu S; Deng, Yuqing; Wu, Yujie; Sindhikara, Dan; Rask, Amy R; Kimura, Takayuki; Abel, Robert; Wang, Lingle

    2017-12-12

    Macrocycles have been emerging as a very important drug class in the past few decades largely due to their expanded chemical diversity benefiting from advances in synthetic methods. Macrocyclization has been recognized as an effective way to restrict the conformational space of acyclic small molecule inhibitors with the hope of improving potency, selectivity, and metabolic stability. Because of their relatively larger size as compared to typical small molecule drugs and the complexity of the structures, efficient sampling of the accessible macrocycle conformational space and accurate prediction of their binding affinities to their target protein receptors poses a great challenge of central importance in computational macrocycle drug design. In this article, we present a novel method for relative binding free energy calculations between macrocycles with different ring sizes and between the macrocycles and their corresponding acyclic counterparts. We have applied the method to seven pharmaceutically interesting data sets taken from recent drug discovery projects including 33 macrocyclic ligands covering a diverse chemical space. The predicted binding free energies are in good agreement with experimental data with an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.94 kcal/mol. This is to our knowledge the first time where the free energy of the macrocyclization of linear molecules has been directly calculated with rigorous physics-based free energy calculation methods, and we anticipate the outstanding accuracy demonstrated here across a broad range of target classes may have significant implications for macrocycle drug discovery.

  2. Planning Irreversible Electroporation in the Porcine Kidney: Are Numerical Simulations Reliable for Predicting Empiric Ablation Outcomes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wimmer, Thomas; Srimathveeravalli, Govindarajan; Gutta, Narendra; Ezell, Paula C.; Monette, Sebastien; Maybody, Majid; Erinjery, Joseph P.; Durack, Jeremy C.; Coleman, Jonathan A.; Solomon, Stephen B.

    2015-01-01

    PurposeNumerical simulations are used for treatment planning in clinical applications of irreversible electroporation (IRE) to determine ablation size and shape. To assess the reliability of simulations for treatment planning, we compared simulation results with empiric outcomes of renal IRE using computed tomography (CT) and histology in an animal model.MethodsThe ablation size and shape for six different IRE parameter sets (70–90 pulses, 2,000–2,700 V, 70–100 µs) for monopolar and bipolar electrodes was simulated using a numerical model. Employing these treatment parameters, 35 CT-guided IRE ablations were created in both kidneys of six pigs and followed up with CT immediately and after 24 h. Histopathology was analyzed from postablation day 1.ResultsAblation zones on CT measured 81 ± 18 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.05) and 115 ± 18 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.09) of the simulated size for monopolar electrodes, and 190 ± 33 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.001) and 234 ± 12 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.0001) for bipolar electrodes. Histopathology indicated smaller ablation zones than simulated (71 ± 41 %, p ≤ 0.047) and measured on CT (47 ± 16 %, p ≤ 0.005) with complete ablation of kidney parenchyma within the central zone and incomplete ablation in the periphery.ConclusionBoth numerical simulations for planning renal IRE and CT measurements may overestimate the size of ablation compared to histology, and ablation effects may be incomplete in the periphery

  3. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    from different fields and have not yet been compared in environmental modeling. To compare the two approaches, we develop a unifying terminology, evaluate them theoretically, and apply them to conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling in the same drainage system. Our results show that both approaches can......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...... approaches which use stochastic processes to describe systematic deviations and to discuss their advantages and drawbacks for urban drainage modeling. The two methodologies are an external bias description (EBD) and an internal noise description (IND, also known as stochastic gray-box modeling). They emerge...

  4. Design for Reliability of Power Electronic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible processing of electric power in the application of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, adjustable-speed drives, etc. More and more efforts are devoted to better power electronic systems in terms of reliability to ensure high......). A collection of methodologies based on Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile analysis are presented in this paper to perform reliability-oriented design of power electronic systems. The corresponding design procedures and reliability prediction models are provided. Further on, a case study...... on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical components IGBTs. Different aspects of improving the reliability of the power converter are mapped. Finally, the challenges and opportunities to achieve more reliable power electronic systems are addressed....

  5. Understanding and predicting metallic whisker growth and its effects on reliability : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael, Joseph Richard; Grant, Richard P.; Rodriguez, Mark Andrew; Pillars, Jamin; Susan, Donald Francis; McKenzie, Bonnie Beth; Yelton, William Graham

    2012-01-01

    Tin (Sn) whiskers are conductive Sn filaments that grow from Sn-plated surfaces, such as surface finishes on electronic packages. The phenomenon of Sn whiskering has become a concern in recent years due to requirements for lead (Pb)-free soldering and surface finishes in commercial electronics. Pure Sn finishes are more prone to whisker growth than their Sn-Pb counterparts and high profile failures due to whisker formation (causing short circuits) in space applications have been documented. At Sandia, Sn whiskers are of interest due to increased use of Pb-free commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) parts and possible future requirements for Pb-free solders and surface finishes in high-reliability microelectronics. Lead-free solders and surface finishes are currently being used or considered for several Sandia applications. Despite the long history of Sn whisker research and the recently renewed interest in this topic, a comprehensive understanding of whisker growth remains elusive. This report describes recent research on characterization of Sn whiskers with the aim of understanding the underlying whisker growth mechanism(s). The report is divided into four sections and an Appendix. In Section 1, the Sn plating process is summarized. Specifically, the Sn plating parameters that were successful in producing samples with whiskers will be reviewed. In Section 2, the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of Sn whiskers and time-lapse SEM studies of whisker growth will be discussed. This discussion includes the characterization of straight as well as kinked whiskers. In Section 3, a detailed discussion is given of SEM/EBSD (electron backscatter diffraction) techniques developed to determine the crystallography of Sn whiskers. In Section 4, these SEM/EBSD methods are employed to determine the crystallography of Sn whiskers, with a statistically significant number of whiskers analyzed. This is the largest study of Sn whisker crystallography ever reported. This section includes a

  6. Advanced diagnostics and predictive maintenance to improve availability and reliability of ENEL plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cenci, V.; Ghironi, M.; Guidi, L.; Lauro, M.; Pestonesi, D. [ENEL (Italy). Generation and Energy Management Division

    2007-07-01

    This paper reviews the ENEL Generation and Energy Management strategy for diagnostics and predictive maintenance of power plants and provides a comprehensive description of effective applications and systems. Exploiting the most advanced information and communication technologies makes it possible to capture weak and hidden signals and powerful processing can be used to discover forewarning symptoms and identify anomalies both in the process and, above all, inside the devices. The following systems and applications are presented together with results and impact on plant profitability: expert system for the diagnostics of plant main machinery; advanced diagnostics of 'intelligent' fieldbus devices such as on/off valve motor-driven actuators, control-valve positioners and pneumatic actuators, transmitters; control loop and control valve diagnostics in order to investigate valve friction with an estimation of the residual time to failure; multisensorial diagnostics for coal transport and storage systems aimed at preventing firing and structural damages; and wireless sensor networks for the diagnostics of medium and small size components. 4 refs., 14 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Positive Skin Test or Specific IgE to Penicillin Does Not Reliably Predict Penicillin Allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tannert, Line Kring; Mørtz, Charlotte G; Skov, Per Stahl

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: According to guidelines, patients are diagnosed with penicillin allergy if skin test (ST) result or specific IgE (s-IgE) to penicillin is positive. However, the true sensitivity and specificity of these tests are presently not known. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical relevance...... of a positive ST result and positive s-IgE and to study the reproducibility of ST and s-IgE. METHODS: A sample of convenience of 25 patients with positive penicillin ST results, antipenicillin s-IgE results, or both was challenged with their culprit penicillin. Further 19 patients were not challenged......-IgE measured (T0), and then skin tested and had s-IgE measured 4 weeks later (T1). RESULTS: Only 9 (36%) of 25 were challenge positive. There was an increased probability of being penicillin allergic if both ST result and s-IgE were positive at T0. Positive ST result or positive s-IgE alone did not predict...

  8. Inter-Investigator Reliability of Anthropometric Prediction of 1RM Bench Press in College Football Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Richard M; Arabas, Jana L; Mayhew, Jerry L; Brechue, William F

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of inter-investigator differences in anthropometric assessments on the prediction of one-repetition maximum (1RM) bench press in college football players. Division-II players (n = 34, age = 20.4 ± 1.2 y, 182.3 ± 6.6 cm, 99.1 ± 18.4 kg) were measured for selected anthropometric variables and 1RM bench press at the conclusion of a heavy resistance training program. Triceps, subscapular, and abdominal skinfolds were measured in triplicate by three investigators and used to estimate %fat. Arm circumference was measured around a flexed biceps muscle and was corrected for triceps skinfold to estimate muscle cross-sectional area (CSA). Chest circumference was measured at mid-expiration. Significant differences among the testers were evident in six of the nine anthropometric variables, with the least experienced tester being significantly different from the other testers on seven variables, although average differences among investigators ranged from 1-2% for circumferences to 4-9% for skinfolds. The two more experienced testers were significantly different on only one variable. Overall agreement among testers was high (ICC>0.895) for each variable, with low coefficients of variation (CVbench press using a non-performance anthropometric equation. Minimal experience in anthropometry may not impede strength and conditioning specialists from accurately estimating 1RM bench press.

  9. Semen molecular and cellular features: these parameters can reliably predict subsequent ART outcome in a goat model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mereu Paolo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Currently, the assessment of sperm function in a raw or processed semen sample is not able to reliably predict sperm ability to withstand freezing and thawing procedures and in vivo fertility and/or assisted reproductive biotechnologies (ART outcome. The aim of the present study was to investigate which parameters among a battery of analyses could predict subsequent spermatozoa in vitro fertilization ability and hence blastocyst output in a goat model. Ejaculates were obtained by artificial vagina from 3 adult goats (Capra hircus aged 2 years (A, B and C. In order to assess the predictive value of viability, computer assisted sperm analyzer (CASA motility parameters and ATP intracellular concentration before and after thawing and of DNA integrity after thawing on subsequent embryo output after an in vitro fertility test, a logistic regression analysis was used. Individual differences in semen parameters were evident for semen viability after thawing and DNA integrity. Results of IVF test showed that spermatozoa collected from A and B lead to higher cleavage rates (0

  10. Reliability of Degree-Day Models to Predict the Development Time of Plutella xylostella (L.) under Field Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchioro, C A; Krechemer, F S; de Moraes, C P; Foerster, L A

    2015-12-01

    The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a cosmopolitan pest of brassicaceous crops occurring in regions with highly distinct climate conditions. Several studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and P. xylostella development rate, providing degree-day models for populations from different geographical regions. However, there are no data available to date to demonstrate the suitability of such models to make reliable projections on the development time for this species in field conditions. In the present study, 19 models available in the literature were tested regarding their ability to accurately predict the development time of two cohorts of P. xylostella under field conditions. Only 11 out of the 19 models tested accurately predicted the development time for the first cohort of P. xylostella, but only seven for the second cohort. Five models correctly predicted the development time for both cohorts evaluated. Our data demonstrate that the accuracy of the models available for P. xylostella varies widely and therefore should be used with caution for pest management purposes.

  11. Assessing the reliability, predictive and construct validity of historical, clinical and risk management-20 (HCR-20) in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sada, Andrea; Robles-García, Rebeca; Martínez-López, Nicolás; Hernández-Ramírez, Rafael; Tovilla-Zarate, Carlos-Alfonso; López-Munguía, Fernando; Suárez-Alvarez, Enrique; Ayala, Xochitl; Fresán, Ana

    2016-08-01

    Assessing dangerousness to gauge the likelihood of future violent behaviour has become an integral part of clinical mental health practice in forensic and non-forensic psychiatric settings, one of the most effective instruments for this being the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20). To examine the HCR-20 factor structure in Mexican psychiatric inpatients and to obtain its predictive validity and reliability for use in this population. In total, 225 patients diagnosed with psychotic, affective or personality disorders were included. The HCR-20 was applied at hospital admission and violent behaviours were assessed during psychiatric hospitalization using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). Construct validity, predictive validity and internal consistency were determined. Violent behaviour remains more severe in patients classified in the high-risk group during hospitalization. Fifteen items displayed adequate communalities in the original designated domains of the HCR-20 and internal consistency of the instruments was high. The HCR-20 is a suitable instrument for predicting violence risk in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

  12. A human hemi-cornea model for eye irritation testing: quality control of production, reliability and predictive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelke, M; Zorn-Kruppa, M; Gabel, D; Reisinger, K; Rusche, B; Mewes, K R

    2013-02-01

    We have developed a 3-dimensional human hemi-cornea which comprises an immortalized epithelial cell line and keratocytes embedded in a collagen stroma. In the present study, we have used MTT reduction of the whole tissue to clarify whether the production of this complex 3-D-model is transferable into other laboratories and whether these tissues can be constructed reproducibly. Our results demonstrate the reproducible production of the hemi-cornea model according to standard operation procedures using 15 independent batches of reconstructed hemi-cornea models in two independent laboratories each. Furthermore, the hemi-cornea tissues have been treated with 20 chemicals of different eye-irritating potential under blind conditions to assess the performance and limitations of our test system comparing three different prediction models. The most suitable prediction model revealed an overall in vitro-in vivo concordance of 80% and 70% in the participating laboratories, respectively, and an inter-laboratory concordance of 80%. Sensitivity of the test was 77% and specificity was between 57% and 86% to discriminate classified from non-classified chemicals. We conclude that additional physiologically relevant endpoints in both epithelium and stroma have to be developed for the reliable prediction of all GHS classes of eye irritation in one stand alone test system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

    2018-02-15

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

  14. Positive Skin Test or Specific IgE to Penicillin Does Not Reliably Predict Penicillin Allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tannert, Line Kring; Mortz, Charlotte Gotthard; Skov, Per Stahl; Bindslev-Jensen, Carsten

    According to guidelines, patients are diagnosed with penicillin allergy if skin test (ST) result or specific IgE (s-IgE) to penicillin is positive. However, the true sensitivity and specificity of these tests are presently not known. To investigate the clinical relevance of a positive ST result and positive s-IgE and to study the reproducibility of ST and s-IgE. A sample of convenience of 25 patients with positive penicillin ST results, antipenicillin s-IgE results, or both was challenged with their culprit penicillin. Further 19 patients were not challenged, but deemed allergic on the basis of a recent anaphylactic reaction or delayed reactions to skin testing. Another sample of convenience of 18 patients, 17 overlapping with the 25 challenged, with initial skin testing and s-IgE (median, 25; range, 3-121), months earlier (T -1 ), was repeat skin tested and had s-IgE measured (T 0 ), and then skin tested and had s-IgE measured 4 weeks later (T 1 ). Only 9 (36%) of 25 were challenge positive. There was an increased probability of being penicillin allergic if both ST result and s-IgE were positive at T 0 . Positive ST result or positive s-IgE alone did not predict penicillin allergy. Among the 18 patients repeatedly tested, 46.2% (12 of 25) of positive ST results at T -1 were reproducibly positive at T 0 . For s-IgE, 54.2% (14 of 24) positive measurements were still positive at T 0 and 7 converted to positive at T 1 . The best predictor for a clinically significant (IgE-mediated) penicillin allergy is a combination of a positive case history with simultaneous positive ST result and s-IgE or a positive challenge result. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  16. Specifying Links between Executive Functioning and Theory of Mind during Middle Childhood: Cognitive Flexibility Predicts Social Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Allison M.; Gallaway, Kristin C.; Hund, Alycia M.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to specify the development of and links between executive functioning and theory of mind during middle childhood. One hundred four 7- to 12-year-old children completed a battery of age-appropriate tasks measuring working memory, inhibition, flexibility, theory of mind, and vocabulary. As expected, spatial working…

  17. Reversibly Bistable Flexible Electronics

    KAUST Repository

    Alfaraj, Nasir

    2015-05-01

    Introducing the notion of transformational silicon electronics has paved the way for integrating various applications with silicon-based, modern, high-performance electronic circuits that are mechanically flexible and optically semitransparent. While maintaining large-scale production and prototyping rapidity, this flexible and translucent scheme demonstrates the potential to transform conventionally stiff electronic devices into thin and foldable ones without compromising long-term performance and reliability. In this work, we report on the fabrication and characterization of reversibly bistable flexible electronic switches that utilize flexible n-channel metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors. The transistors are fabricated initially on rigid (100) silicon substrates before they are peeled off. They can be used to control flexible batches of light-emitting diodes, demonstrating both the relative ease of scaling at minimum cost and maximum reliability and the feasibility of integration. The peeled-off silicon fabric is about 25 µm thick. The fabricated devices are transferred to a reversibly bistable flexible platform through which, for example, a flexible smartphone can be wrapped around a user’s wrist and can also be set back to its original mechanical position. Buckling and cyclic bending of such host platforms brings a completely new dimension to the development of flexible electronics, especially rollable displays.

  18. Do in-training evaluation reports deserve their bad reputations? A study of the reliability and predictive ability of ITER scores and narrative comments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Shiphra; Eva, Kevin; Regehr, Glenn

    2013-10-01

    Although scores on in-training evaluation reports (ITERs) are often criticized for poor reliability and validity, ITER comments may yield valuable information. The authors assessed across-rotation reliability of ITER scores in one internal medicine program, ability of ITER scores and comments to predict postgraduate year three (PGY3) performance, and reliability and incremental predictive validity of attendings' analysis of written comments. Numeric and narrative data from the first two years of ITERs for one cohort of residents at the University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine (2009-2011) were assessed for reliability and predictive validity of third-year performance. Twenty-four faculty attendings rank-ordered comments (without scores) such that each resident was ranked by three faculty. Mean ITER scores and comment rankings were submitted to regression analyses; dependent variables were PGY3 ITER scores and program directors' rankings. Reliabilities of ITER scores across nine rotations for 63 residents were 0.53 for both postgraduate year one (PGY1) and postgraduate year two (PGY2). Interrater reliabilities across three attendings' rankings were 0.83 for PGY1 and 0.79 for PGY2. There were strong correlations between ITER scores and comments within each year (0.72 and 0.70). Regressions revealed that PGY1 and PGY2 ITER scores collectively explained 25% of variance in PGY3 scores and 46% of variance in PGY3 rankings. Comment rankings did not improve predictions. ITER scores across multiple rotations showed decent reliability and predictive validity. Comment ranks did not add to the predictive ability, but correlation analyses suggest that trainee performance can be measured through these comments.

  19. Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, Rubenka

    Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant's ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  20. Laser Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-08-01

    qovernment aqencies on request from RADC ( nCTM ) Griffiss AFP NY 13441. 71. Cochran, Albert L., "Check Test of Rangefinder, AN/GVS-3 (SM23E2)," Army...Qualified military and oovemnent aoencles on request from RAOC ( ncTM ) Griff Iss AFB NY 13441. 222. This reference will be made available to Qualified

  1. Flexible Bronchoscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Russell J; Casal, Roberto F; Lazarus, Donald R; Ost, David E; Eapen, George A

    2018-03-01

    Flexible bronchoscopy has changed the course of pulmonary medicine. As technology advances, the role of the flexible bronchoscope for both diagnostic and therapeutic indications is continually expanding. This article reviews the historical development of the flexible bronchoscopy, fundamental uses of the flexible bronchoscope as a tool to examine the central airways and obtain diagnostic tissue, and the indications, complications, and contraindications to flexible bronchoscopy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Re-establishing the pecking order: Niche models reliably predict suitable habitats for the reintroduction of red-billed oxpeckers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalle, Riddhika; Combrink, Leigh; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

    2017-03-01

    Distributions of avian mutualists are affected by changes in biotic interactions and environmental conditions driven directly/indirectly by human actions. The range contraction of red-billed oxpeckers ( Buphagus erythrorhynchus ) in South Africa is partly a result of the widespread use of acaracides (i.e., mainly cattle dips), toxic to both ticks and oxpeckers. We predicted the habitat suitability of red-billed oxpeckers in South Africa using ensemble models to assist the ongoing reintroduction efforts and to identify new reintroduction sites for population recovery. The distribution of red-billed oxpeckers was influenced by moderate to high tree cover, woodland habitats, and starling density (a proxy for cavity-nesting birds) with regard to nest-site characteristics. Consumable resources (host and tick density), bioclimate, surface water body density, and proximity to protected areas were other influential predictors. Our models estimated 42,576.88-98,506.98 km 2 of highly suitable habitat (0.5-1) covering the majority of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, a substantial portion of northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Gauteng Province. Niche models reliably predicted suitable habitat in 40%-61% of the reintroduction sites where breeding is currently successful. Ensemble, boosted regression trees and generalized additive models predicted few suitable areas in the Eastern Cape and south of KZN that are part of the historic range. A few southern areas in the Northern Cape, outside the historic range, also had suitable sites predicted. Our models are a promising decision support tool for guiding reintroduction programs at macroscales. Apart from active reintroductions, conservation programs should encourage farmers and/or landowners to use oxpecker-compatible agrochemicals and set up adequate nest boxes to facilitate the population recovery of the red-billed oxpecker, particularly in human-modified landscapes. To ensure long-term conservation success, we suggest that

  3. Predictive Current Control of a 7-level AC-DC back-to-back Converter for Universal and Flexible Power Management System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bifaretti, Steffano; Zanchetta, Pericle; Iov, Florin

    2008-01-01

    The paper proposes a novel power conversion system for Universal and Flexible Power Management (UNIFLEX-PM) in Future Electricity Network. Its structure is based on a back-to-back three-phase AC-DC 7-level converter; each AC side is connected to a different PCC, representing the main grid and....../or various distributed generation systems. Effective and accurate power flow control is demonstrated through simulation in Matlab- Simulink environment on a model based on a two-port structure and using a Predictive Control technique. Control of different Power flow profiles has been successfully tested...

  4. Improvements in the reliability of a-InGaZnO thin-film transistors with triple stacked gate insulator in flexible electronics applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Hua-Mao [Department of Photonics & Institute of Electro-Optical Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Chang, Ting-Chang, E-mail: tcchang3708@gmail.com [Department of Physics, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China); Department of Photonics, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China); Advanced Optoelectronics Technology Center, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan (China); Tai, Ya-Hsiang [Department of Photonics & Institute of Electro-Optical Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Chen, Kuan-Fu [Department of Physics, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China); Chiang, Hsiao-Cheng [Department of Photonics, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China); Liu, Kuan-Hsien [Department of Electrophysics, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Lee, Chao-Kuei [Department of Photonics, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China); Lin, Wei-Ting; Cheng, Chun-Cheng; Tu, Chun-Hao; Liu, Chu-Yu [Advanced Technology Research Center, AU Optronics Corp, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

    2015-11-30

    This study examined the impact of the low-temperature stacking gate insulator on the gate bias instability of a-InGaZnO thin film transistors in flexible electronics applications. Although the quality of SiN{sub x} at low process/deposition temperature is better than that of SiO{sub x} at similarly low process/deposition temperature, there is still a very large positive threshold voltage (V{sub th}) shift of 9.4 V for devices with a single low-temperature SiN{sub x} gate insulator under positive gate bias stress. However, a suitable oxide–nitride–oxide-stacked gate insulator exhibits a V{sub th} shift of only 0.23 V. This improvement results from the larger band offset and suitable gate insulator thickness that can effectively suppress carrier trapping behavior. - Highlights: • The cause of the bias instability for a low-temperature gate insulator is verified. • A triple-stacked gate insulator was fabricated. • A suitable triple stacked gate insulator shows only 0.23 V threshold voltage shift.

  5. The reliability of test results from simple test samples in predicting the fatigue performance of automotive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fourlaris, G.; Ellwood, R.; Jones, T.B.

    2007-01-01

    The use of high strength steels (HSS) in automotive components is steadily increasing as automotive designers use modern steel grades to improve structural performance, reduce vehicle weight and enhance crash performance. Weight reduction can be achieved by substituting mild steel with a thinner gauge HSS, however, it must be ensured that no deterioration in performance including fatigue capability occurs. In this study, tests have been carried out to determine the effects that gauge and material strength have on the fatigue performance of a fusion welded automotive suspension arm. Current finite element (FE) modelling and fatigue prediction techniques have been evaluated to determine their reliability when used for thin strip steels. Results have shown the fatigue performance of welded components to be independent of the strength of the parent material for the steel grades studied, with material thickness and joining process the key features determining the fatigue performance. The correlation between the fatigue performance of simple welded samples under uniaxial, constant amplitude loading and complex components under biaxial in service road load data, has been shown to be unreliable. This study also indicates that with the application of modern technologies, such as tailor-welded blanks (TWB), significant weight savings can be achieved. This is demonstrated by a 19% weight reduction with no detrimental effect on the fatigue performance

  6. Reliability prediction for the vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS and passive safety systems (PSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balbir S. Dhillon

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The human error has been reported as a major root cause in road accidents in today’s world. The human as a driver in road vehicles composed of human, mechanical and electrical components is constantly exposed to changing surroundings (e.g., road conditions, environmentwhich deteriorate the driver’s capacities leading to a potential accident. The auto industries and transportation authorities have realized that similar to other complex and safety sensitive transportation systems, the road vehicles need to rely on both advanced technologies (i.e., Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and Passive Safety Systems (PSS (e.g.,, seatbelts, airbags in order to mitigate the risk of accidents and casualties. In this study, the advantages and disadvantages of ADAS as active safety systems as well as passive safety systems in road vehicles have been discussed. Also, this study proposes models that analyze the interactions between human as a driver and ADAS Warning and Crash Avoidance Systems and PSS in the design of vehicles. Thereafter, the mathematical models have been developed to make reliability prediction at any given time on the road transportation for vehicles equipped with ADAS and PSS. Finally, the implications of this study in the improvement of vehicle designs and prevention of casualties are discussed.

  7. Increasing of prediction reliability of calcium carbonate scale formation in heat exchanger of secondary coolant circuits of thermal and nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tret'yakov, O.V.; Kritskij, V.G.; Styazhkin, P.S.

    1991-01-01

    Calcium carbonate scale formation in the secondary circuit heat exchanger of thermal and nuclear power plants is investigated. A model of calcium-carbonate scale formation providing quite reliable prediction of process running and the possibility of its control affecting the parameters of hydrochemical regime (HCR) is developed. The results can be used when designing the automatic-control system of HCR

  8. On flexibility

    OpenAIRE

    Weiss, Christoph R.; Briglauer, Wolfgang

    2000-01-01

    By building on theoretical work by Mills and Schumann (1985) and Ungern-Sternberg (1990) this paper provides evidence on the determinants of two dimensions of flexibility, the flexibility in adjusting aggregate output over time (tactical flexibility) as well as the ability to switch quickly between products (operational flexibility). Econometric analysis of a sample of 40.000 farms in Upper-Austria for the period 1980 to 1990 suggests that larger full-time farms operated by younger, better ed...

  9. Flexible chain molecules in the marginal and concentrated regimes: universal static scaling laws and cross-over predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Laso Carbajo, Manuel; Karayiannis, Nikos Ch.

    2008-01-01

    We present predictions for the static scaling exponents and for the cross-over polymer volumetric fractions in the marginal and concentrated solution regimes. Corrections for finite chain length are made. Predictions are based on an analysis of correlated fluctuations in density and chain length, in a semigrand ensemble in which mers and solvent sites exchange identities. Cross-over volumetric fractions are found to be chain length independent to first order, although reciprocal-N corrections...

  10. How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

    2015-01-01

    While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

  11. How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Wilker

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. Methods: We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. Results: All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. Conclusions: As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

  12. Dietary balanced protein in broiler chickens. 1. A flexible and practical tool to predict dose-response curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eits, R.M.; Kwakkel, R.P.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Hartog, den L.A.

    2005-01-01

    1. An empirical model of exponential form was developed, different versions of which can be used to predict growth rate, feed conversion and carcase and breast meat yield of broiler chickens as a function of dietary balanced protein ( DBP) content. The model was developed to support decision- making

  13. Using image analysis as a tool for assessment of prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancer: How reliable is it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C Lloyd

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Estrogen receptor (ER, progesterone receptor (PR and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2 are important and well-established prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancers and routinely tested on patient′s tumor samples by immunohistochemical (IHC study. The accuracy of these test results has substantial impact on patient management. A critical factor that contributes to the result is the interpretation (scoring of IHC. This study investigates how computerized image analysis can play a role in a reliable scoring, and identifies potential pitfalls with common methods. Materials and Methods : Whole slide images of 33 invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC (10 ER and 23 HER2 were scored by pathologist under the light microscope and confirmed by another pathologist. The HER2 results were additionally confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH. The scoring criteria were adherent to the guidelines recommended by the American Society of Clinical Oncology/College of American Pathologists. Whole slide stains were then scored by commercially available image analysis algorithms from Definiens (Munich, Germany and Aperio Technologies (Vista, CA, USA. Each algorithm was modified specifically for each marker and tissue. The results were compared with the semi-quantitative manual scoring, which was considered the gold standard in this study. Results : For HER2 positive group, each algorithm scored 23/23 cases within the range established by the pathologist. For ER, both algorithms scored 10/10 cases within range. The performance of each algorithm varies somewhat from the percentage of staining as compared to the pathologist′s reading. Conclusions : Commercially available computerized image analysis can be useful in the evaluation of ER and HER2 IHC results. In order to achieve accurate results either manual pathologist region selection is necessary, or an automated region selection tool must be employed. Specificity can

  14. General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

    2016-05-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. RTE - Reliability report 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-06-01

    Every year, RTE produces a reliability report for the past year. This document lays out the main factors that affected the electrical power system's operational reliability in 2016 and the initiatives currently under way intended to ensure its reliability in the future. Within a context of the energy transition, changes to the European interconnected network mean that RTE has to adapt on an on-going basis. These changes include the increase in the share of renewables injecting an intermittent power supply into networks, resulting in a need for flexibility, and a diversification in the numbers of stakeholders operating in the energy sector and changes in the ways in which they behave. These changes are dramatically changing the structure of the power system of tomorrow and the way in which it will operate - particularly the way in which voltage and frequency are controlled, as well as the distribution of flows, the power system's stability, the level of reserves needed to ensure supply-demand balance, network studies, assets' operating and control rules, the tools used and the expertise of operators. The results obtained in 2016 are evidence of a globally satisfactory level of reliability for RTE's operations in somewhat demanding circumstances: more complex supply-demand balance management, cross-border schedules at interconnections indicating operation that is closer to its limits and - most noteworthy - having to manage a cold spell just as several nuclear power plants had been shut down. In a drive to keep pace with the changes expected to occur in these circumstances, RTE implemented numerous initiatives to ensure high levels of reliability: - maintaining investment levels of euro 1.5 billion per year; - increasing cross-zonal capacity at borders with our neighbouring countries, thus bolstering the security of our electricity supply; - implementing new mechanisms (demand response, capacity mechanism, interruptibility, etc.); - involvement in tests or projects

  16. Conflicting flexibility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Jong, P.; Schaap, A.

    2011-01-01

    New buildings are designed for first users. For a sustainable approach there are many advantages in designing in flexibility and adjustability in order to enable and facilitate the other sequential users. For the first investor this flexibility is translated into improved exit values due to

  17. Advances in Flexible Hybrid Electronics Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    evaluate these new capabilities. This paper has presented initial work that helps define new test requirements for FHE systems. Acknowledgements...for supporting FHE capability improvements under the program "Advanced FleX-SoC Microcontroller " • Nano-Bio Manufacturing Consortium (NBMC) for

  18. Influence of model specifications on the reliabilities of genomic prediction in a Swedish-Finnish red breed cattle population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rius-Vilarrasa, E; Strandberg, E; Fikse, W F

    2012-01-01

    Using a combined multi-breed reference population, this study explored the influence of model specification and the effect of including a polygenic effect on the reliability of genomic breeding values (DGV and GEBV). The combined reference population consisted of 2986 Swedish Red Breed (SRB) and ...

  19. Modeling of Flexible Beams for Robotic Manipulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, Jorge; Ayala Botto, Miguel; Costa, Jose sa da

    2002-01-01

    This work treats the problem of modeling robotic manipulators with structural flexibility. A mathematical model of a planar manipulator with a single flexible link is developed. This model is capable of reproducing nonlinear dynamic effects, such as the beam stiffening due to the centrifugal forces induced by the rotation of the joints, giving it the capability to predict reliable dynamic behaviors for a wide range of applications. On the other hand, the model complexity is reduced, in order to keep it amenable for analysis and controller design. The models found in current literature for control design of flexible manipulator arms present dynamic limitations for the sake of real time implementation in a control scheme. These limitations are the result of premature linearization in the formulation of the dynamics equations. In this paper, this common linearization is presented and their dynamic limitations uncovered. An alternative reliable model is then presented. The model is founded on two basic assumptions: inextensibility of the neutral fiber and moderate rotations of the cross sections in order to account for the foreshortening of the beam due to bending. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed model has the closest dynamic behavior to the real beam

  20. Predicting brain age with deep learning from raw imaging data results in a reliable and heritable biomarker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cole, James H.; Poudel, Rudra P. K.; Tsagkrasoulis, Dimosthenis; Caan, Matthan W. A.; Steves, Claire; Spector, Tim D.; Montana, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    Machine learning analysis of neuroimaging data can accurately predict chronological age in healthy people. Deviations from healthy brain ageing have been associated with cognitive impairment and disease. Here we sought to further establish the credentials of 'brain-predicted age' as a biomarker of

  1. Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmati, Mehdi

    2017-08-01

    Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed

  2. Limited Sampling Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Statins: Reliability of a Single Time Point for AUC Prediction for Pravastatin and Simvastatin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, N R

    2016-02-01

    Statins are widely prescribed medicines and are also available in fixed dose combinations with other drugs to treat several chronic ailments. Given the safety issues associated with statins it may be important to assess feasibility of a single time concentration strategy for prediction of exposure (area under the curve; AUC). The peak concentration (Cmax) was used to establish relationship with AUC separately for pravastatin and simvastatin using published pharmacokinetic data. The regression equations generated for statins were used to predict the AUC values from various literature references. The fold difference of the observed divided by predicted values along with correlation coefficient (r) were used to judge the feasibility of the single time point approach. Both pravastatin and simvastatin showed excellent correlation of Cmax vs. AUC values with r value ≥ 0.9638 (pAUC predictions and >81% of the predicted values were in a narrower range of >0.75-fold but AUC values showed excellent correlation for pravastatin (r=0.9708, n=115; pAUC predictions. On the basis of the present work, it is feasible to develop a single concentration time point strategy that coincides with Cmax occurrence for both pravastatin and simvastatin from a therapeutic drug monitoring perspective. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong

    1992-07-01

    This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

  4. Determination of Multiphase Flow Meter Reliability and Development of Correction Charts for the Prediction of Oilfield Fluid Flow Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel S. MOFUNLEWI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of field testing of Multiphase Flow Meter (MPFM is to show whether its accuracy compares favourably with that of the Test Separator in accurately measuring the three production phases (oil, gas and water as well as determining meter reliability in field environment. This study evaluates field test results of the MPFM as compared to reference conventional test separators. Generally, results show that MPFM compares favourably with Test Separator within the specified range of accuracy.At the moment, there is no legislation for meter proving technique for MPFM. However, this study has developed calibration charts that can be used to correct and improve meter accuracy.

  5. Rapid and reliable predictions of the radiological consequences of accidents as an aid to decisions on countermeasures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, G.N.

    1990-01-01

    The rapid and reliable assessment of the potential radiological consequences of an accident at a nuclear installation is an essential input to timely decisions on the effective introduction of countermeasures. There have been considerable improvements over the past decade or so in the methods used for such assessments and, in particular, in the development of computerized systems. The need for such systems is described, together with their current state of development and possible future trends. This topic has featured prominently within the CEC's Radiation Protection Research Programme and is likely to do so far the foreseeable future. The main features of this research, its achievements to date and future directions are described

  6. Pocket Handbook on Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-09-01

    exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

  7. Reliable Prediction of Insulin Resistance by a School-Based Fitness Test in Middle-School Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd Varness

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. (1 Determine the predictive value of a school-based test of cardiovascular fitness (CVF for insulin resistance (IR; (2 compare a “school-based” prediction of IR to a “laboratory-based” prediction, using various measures of fitness and body composition. Methods. Middle school children (n=82 performed the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER, a school-based CVF test, and underwent evaluation of maximal oxygen consumption treadmill testing (VO2 max, body composition (percent body fat and BMI z score, and IR (derived homeostasis model assessment index [HOMAIR]. Results. PACER showed a strong correlation with VO2 max/kg (rs = 0.83, P<.001 and with HOMAIR (rs = −0.60, P<.001. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a school-based model (using PACER and BMI z score predicted IR similar to a laboratory-based model (using VO2 max/kg of lean body mass and percent body fat. Conclusions. The PACER is a valid school-based test of CVF, is predictive of IR, and has a similar relationship to IR when compared to complex laboratory-based testing. Simple school-based measures of childhood fitness (PACER and fatness (BMI z score could be used to identify childhood risk for IR and evaluate interventions.

  8. Reliable Prediction of Insulin Resistance by a School-Based Fitness Test in Middle-School Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allen DavidB

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. (1 Determine the predictive value of a school-based test of cardiovascular fitness (CVF for insulin resistance (IR; (2 compare a "school-based" prediction of IR to a "laboratory-based" prediction, using various measures of fitness and body composition. Methods. Middle school children ( performed the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER, a school-based CVF test, and underwent evaluation of maximal oxygen consumption treadmill testing ( max, body composition (percent body fat and BMI z score, and IR (derived homeostasis model assessment index []. Results. PACER showed a strong correlation with max/kg ( = 0.83, and with ( = , . Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a school-based model (using PACER and BMI z score predicted IR similar to a laboratory-based model (using max/kg of lean body mass and percent body fat. Conclusions. The PACER is a valid school-based test of CVF, is predictive of IR, and has a similar relationship to IR when compared to complex laboratory-based testing. Simple school-based measures of childhood fitness (PACER and fatness (BMI z score could be used to identify childhood risk for IR and evaluate interventions.

  9. Humidity build-up in electronic enclosures exposed to different geographical locations by RC modelling and reliability prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conseil-Gudla, H.; Staliulionis, Z.; Mohanty, S.

    2018-01-01

    according to this steady state (25 °C and 60% RH) have been calculated for the different climates, and the protection offered by the enclosures has been estimated under different casing materials and resistor-capacitor (RC) simulation. This method offers a way to predict the average value of failure rate...

  10. Prediction of the shape of inline wave force and free surface elevation using First Order Reliability Method (FORM)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghadirian, Amin; Bredmose, Henrik; Schløer, Signe

    2017-01-01

    theory, that is, the most likely time history of inline force around a force peak of given value. The results of FORM and NewForce are linearly identical and show only minor deviations at second order. The FORM results are then compared to wave averaged measurements of the same criteria for crest height......In design of substructures for offshore wind turbines, the extreme wave loads which are of interest in Ultimate Limit States are often estimated by choosing extreme events from linear random sea states and replacing them by either stream function wave theory or the NewWave theory of a certain...... design wave height. As these wave theories super from limitations such as symmetry around the crest, other methods to estimate the wave loads are needed. In the present paper, the First Order Reliability Method, FORM, is used systematically to estimate the most likely extreme wave shapes. Two parameters...

  11. Support Vector Machine Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of Interoception Does Not Reliably Predict Individual Outcomes of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Panic Disorder with Agoraphobia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedikt Sundermann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe approach to apply multivariate pattern analyses based on neuro imaging data for outcome prediction holds out the prospect to improve therapeutic decisions in mental disorders. Patients suffering from panic disorder with agoraphobia (PD/AG often exhibit an increased perception of bodily sensations. The purpose of this investigation was to assess whether multivariate classification applied to a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI interoception paradigm can predict individual responses to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT in PD/AG.MethodsThis analysis is based on pretreatment fMRI data during an interoceptive challenge from a multicenter trial of the German PANIC-NET. Patients with DSM-IV PD/AG were dichotomized as responders (n = 30 or non-responders (n = 29 based on the primary outcome (Hamilton Anxiety Scale Reduction ≥50% after 6 weeks of CBT (2 h/week. fMRI parametric maps were used as features for response classification with linear support vector machines (SVM with or without automated feature selection. Predictive accuracies were assessed using cross validation and permutation testing. The influence of methodological parameters and the predictive ability for specific interoception-related symptom reduction were further evaluated.ResultsSVM did not reach sufficient overall predictive accuracies (38.0–54.2% for anxiety reduction in the primary outcome. In the exploratory analyses, better accuracies (66.7% were achieved for predicting interoception-specific symptom relief as an alternative outcome domain. Subtle information regarding this alternative response criterion but not the primary outcome was revealed by post hoc univariate comparisons.ConclusionIn contrast to reports on other neurofunctional probes, SVM based on an interoception paradigm was not able to reliably predict individual response to CBT. Results speak against the clinical applicability of this technique.

  12. Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2001-01-01

    Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

  13. Improving the reliability of female fertility breeding values using type and milk yield traits that predict energy status in Australian Holstein cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Recio, O; Haile-Mariam, M; Pryce, J E

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were (1) to propose changing the selection criteria trait for evaluating fertility in Australia from calving interval to conception rate at d 42 after the beginning of the mating season and (2) to use type traits as early fertility predictors, to increase the reliability of estimated breeding values for fertility. The breeding goal in Australia is conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season. Currently, the Australian model to predict fertility breeding values (expressed as a linear transformation of calving interval) is a multitrait model that includes calving interval (CVI), lactation length (LL), calving to first service (CFS), first nonreturn rate (FNRR), and conception rate. However, CVI has a lower genetic correlation with the breeding goal (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) than conception rate. Milk yield, type, and fertility data from 164,318 cow sired by 4,766 bulls were used. Principal component analysis and genetic correlation estimates between type and fertility traits were used to select type traits that could subsequently be used in a multitrait analysis. Angularity, foot angle, and pin set were chosen as type traits to include in an index with the traits that are included in the multitrait fertility model: CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and conception rate at d 42 (CR42). An index with these 8 traits is expected to achieve an average bull first proof reliability of 0.60 on the breeding objective (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) compared with reliabilities of 0.39 and 0.45 for CR42 only or the current 5-trait Australian model. Subsequently, we used the first eigenvector of a principal component analysis with udder texture, bone quality, angularity, and body condition score to calculate an energy status indicator trait. The inclusion of the energy status indicator trait composite in a multitrait index with CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and CR42 achieved a 12-point increase in

  14. Study on the methodology for predicting and preventing errors to improve reliability of maintenance task in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanafusa, Hidemitsu; Iwaki, Toshio; Embrey, D.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop and effective methodology for predicting and preventing errors in nuclear power plant maintenance tasks. A method was established by which chief maintenance personnel can predict and reduce errors when reviewing the maintenance procedures and while referring to maintenance supporting systems and methods in other industries including aviation and chemical plant industries. The method involves the following seven steps: 1. Identification of maintenance tasks. 2. Specification of important tasks affecting safety. 3. Assessment of human errors occurring during important tasks. 4. Identification of Performance Degrading Factors. 5. Dividing important tasks into sub-tasks. 6. Extraction of errors using Predictive Human Error Analysis (PHEA). 7. Development of strategies for reducing errors and for recovering from errors. By way of a trial, this method was applied to the pump maintenance procedure in nuclear power plants. This method is believed to be capable of identifying the expected errors in important tasks and supporting the development of error reduction measures. By applying this method, the number of accidents resulting form human errors during maintenance can be reduced. Moreover, the maintenance support base using computers was developed. (author)

  15. Workplace flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scordato, C; Harris, J

    1990-01-01

    Whether your organization is in a growth pattern or downsizing, you are probably facing change. To gain some insight into your options, here is an in-depth look at the problems and benefits of some flexible work arrangements from a just published study by Catalyst.

  16. Flexibility conflict?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delsen, L.W.M.; Bauer, F.; Groß, H.; Sieglen, G.

    2002-01-01

    The chapter deals with the presupposed conflict of interests between employers and employees resulting from a decoupling of operating hours and working times. It starts from the notion that both long operating hours and flexibility are relative concepts. As there is some discretion, the ultimate

  17. PTCH1 is a reliable marker for predicting imatinib response in chronic myeloid leukemia patients in chronic phase.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M Alonso-Dominguez

    Full Text Available Patched homolog 1 gene (PTCH1 expression and the ratio of PTCH1 to Smoothened (SMO expression have been proposed as prognostic markers of the response of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML patients to imatinib. We compared these measurements in a realistic cohort of 101 patients with CML in chronic phase (CP using a simplified qPCR method, and confirmed the prognostic power of each in a competing risk analysis. Gene expression levels were measured in peripheral blood samples at diagnosis. The PTCH1/SMO ratio did not improve PTCH1 prognostic power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.71 vs. 0.72. In order to reduce the number of genes to be analyzed, PTCH1 was the selected measurement. High and low PTCH1 expression groups had significantly different cumulative incidences of imatinib failure (IF, which was defined as discontinuation of imatinib due to lack of efficacy (5% vs. 25% at 4 years, P = 0.013, probabilities of achieving a major molecular response (81% vs. 53% at first year, P = 0.02, and proportions of early molecular failure (14% vs. 43%, P = 0.015. Every progression to an advanced phase (n = 3 and CML-related death (n = 2 occurred in the low PTCH1 group (P<0.001 for both comparisons. PTCH1 was an independent prognostic factor for the prediction of IF. We also validated previously published thresholds for PTCH1 expression. Therefore, we confirmed that PTCH1 expression can predict the imatinib response in CML patients in CP by applying a more rigorous statistical analysis. Thus, PTCH1 expression is a promising molecular marker for predicting the imatinib response in CML patients in CP.

  18. Prediction of failure enthalpy and reliability of irradiated fuel rod under reactivity-initiated accidents by means of statistical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Cheol; Choi, Byeong Kwon; Jeong, Yong Hwan; Jung, Youn Ho

    2001-01-01

    During the last decade, the failure behavior of high-burnup fuel rods under RIA has been an extensive concern since observations of fuel rod failures at low enthalpy. Of great importance is placed on failure prediction of fuel rod in the point of licensing criteria and safety in extending burnup achievement. To address the issue, a statistics-based methodology is introduced to predict failure probability of irradiated fuel rods. Based on RIA simulation results in literature, a failure enthalpy correlation for irradiated fuel rod is constructed as a function of oxide thickness, fuel burnup, and pulse width. From the failure enthalpy correlation, a single damage parameter, equivalent enthalpy, is defined to reflect the effects of the three primary factors as well as peak fuel enthalpy. Moreover, the failure distribution function with equivalent enthalpy is derived, applying a two-parameter Weibull statistical model. Using these equations, the sensitivity analysis is carried out to estimate the effects of burnup, corrosion, peak fuel enthalpy, pulse width and cladding materials used

  19. CRISPRpred: A flexible and efficient tool for sgRNAs on-target activity prediction in CRISPR/Cas9 systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Khaledur Rahman

    Full Text Available The CRISPR/Cas9-sgRNA system has recently become a popular tool for genome editing and a very hot topic in the field of medical research. In this system, Cas9 protein is directed to a desired location for gene engineering and cleaves target DNA sequence which is complementary to a 20-nucleotide guide sequence found within the sgRNA. A lot of experimental efforts, ranging from in vivo selection to in silico modeling, have been made for efficient designing of sgRNAs in CRISPR/Cas9 system. In this article, we present a novel tool, called CRISPRpred, for efficient in silico prediction of sgRNAs on-target activity which is based on the applications of Support Vector Machine (SVM model. To conduct experiments, we have used a benchmark dataset of 17 genes and 5310 guide sequences where there are only 20% true values. CRISPRpred achieves Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUROC-Curve, Area Under Precision Recall Curve (AUPR-Curve and maximum Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC as 0.85, 0.56 and 0.48, respectively. Our tool shows approximately 5% improvement in AUPR-Curve and after analyzing all evaluation metrics, we find that CRISPRpred is better than the current state-of-the-art. CRISPRpred is enough flexible to extract relevant features and use them in a learning algorithm. The source code of our entire software with relevant dataset can be found in the following link: https://github.com/khaled-buet/CRISPRpred.

  20. Multiscale weighted colored graphs for protein flexibility and rigidity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramer, David; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2018-02-01

    Protein structural fluctuation, measured by Debye-Waller factors or B-factors, is known to correlate to protein flexibility and function. A variety of methods has been developed for protein Debye-Waller factor prediction and related applications to domain separation, docking pose ranking, entropy calculation, hinge detection, stability analysis, etc. Nevertheless, none of the current methodologies are able to deliver an accuracy of 0.7 in terms of the Pearson correlation coefficients averaged over a large set of proteins. In this work, we introduce a paradigm-shifting geometric graph model, multiscale weighted colored graph (MWCG), to provide a new generation of computational algorithms to significantly change the current status of protein structural fluctuation analysis. Our MWCG model divides a protein graph into multiple subgraphs based on interaction types between graph nodes and represents the protein rigidity by generalized centralities of subgraphs. MWCGs not only predict the B-factors of protein residues but also accurately analyze the flexibility of all atoms in a protein. The MWCG model is validated over a number of protein test sets and compared with many standard methods. An extensive numerical study indicates that the proposed MWCG offers an accuracy of over 0.8 and thus provides perhaps the first reliable method for estimating protein flexibility and B-factors. It also simultaneously predicts all-atom flexibility in a molecule.

  1. The Electricity Feed Law levy - how reliably can it be predicted?; Wie verlaesslich laesst sich die EEG-Umlage prognostizieren?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bause, Rainer; Schulz, Woldemar [Amprion GmbH, Dortmund (Germany); Buehler, Holger [EnBW TNG, Stuttgart (Germany); Hodurek, Claus [50Hertz Transmission GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Kiessling, Axel [TenneT TSO GmbH, Bayreuth (Germany)

    2011-10-15

    By paying their monthly electricity bill German consumers are promoting the transition to tomorrow's resource-efficient electricity supply system, in which the largest part of electricity used is to come from renewable energy resources. Every year Germany's transmission system operators publish what is referred to as the ''EEG-Umlage'' (report on the Electricity Feed Law levy, or EEG levy), which shows how much every German household will be paying for the promotion of renewable energies in the coming year. The determination of the EEG levy involves uncertainties and imponderabilities which have to be taken into account in its calculation. The crucial task is to find a suitable systematic scheme for predicting the renewable energy yield.

  2. The mechanical behavior and reliability prediction of the HTR graphite component at various temperature and neutron dose ranges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiang; Yu, Suyuan; Wang, Haitao; Li, Chenfeng

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The mechanical behavior of graphite component in HTRs under high temperature and neutron irradiation conditions is simulated. • The computational process of mechanical analysis is introduced. • Deformation, stresses and failure probability of the graphite component are obtained and discussed. • Various temperature and neutron dose ranges are selected in order to investigate the effect of in-core conditions on the results. - Abstract: In a pebble-bed high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR), nuclear graphite serves as the main structural material of the side reflectors. The reactor core is made up of a large number of graphite bricks. In the normal operation case of the reactor, the maximum temperature of the helium coolant commonly reaches about 750 °C. After around 30 years’ full power operation, the peak value of in-core fast neutron cumulative dose reaches to 1 × 10 22 n cm −2 (EDN). Such high temperature and neutron irradiation strongly impact the behavior of graphite component, causing obvious deformation. The temperature and neutron dose are unevenly distributed inside a graphite brick, resulting in stress concentrations. The deformation and stress concentration can both greatly affect safety and reliability of the graphite component. In addition, most of the graphite properties (such as Young's modulus and coefficient of thermal expansion) change remarkably under high temperature and neutron irradiations. The irradiation-induced creep also plays a very important role during the whole process, and provides a significant impact on the stress accumulation. In order to simulate the behavior of graphite component under various in-core conditions, all of the above factors must be considered carefully. In this paper, the deformation, stress distribution and failure probability of a side graphite component are studied at various temperature points and neutron dose levels. 400 °C, 500 °C, 600 °C and 750 °C are selected as the

  3. Flexible licensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martyn Jansen

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The case is presented for a more flexible approach to licensing online library resources. Today's distributed education environment creates pressure for UK higher and further education institutions (HEI/FEIs to form partnerships and to develop educational products and roll them out across the globe. Online library resources are a key component of distributed education and yet existing licensing agreements struggle to keep pace with the increasing range of users and purposes for which they are required. This article describes the process of developing a flexible approach to licensing and proposes a new model licence for online library resources which has the adaptability needed in this new global educational landscape. These ideas have been presented and discussed at various workshops across Eduserv's and JISC Collections' higher education and publisher communities, and further consultation is ongoing.

  4. Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tee, Kong Fah; Khan, Lutfor Rahman; Li, Hongshuang

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction

  5. Single-leg lateral, horizontal, and vertical jump assessment: reliability, interrelationships, and ability to predict sprint and change-of-direction performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meylan, Cesar; McMaster, Travis; Cronin, John; Mohammad, Nur Ikhwan; Rogers, Cailyn; Deklerk, Melissa

    2009-07-01

    The purposes of this study were to determine the reliability of unilateral vertical, horizontal, and lateral countermovement jump assessments, the interrelationship between these tests, and their usefulness as predictors of sprint (10 m) and change-of-direction (COD) performance for 80 men and women physical education students. Jump performance was assessed on a contact mat and sprint, and COD performances were assessed using timing lights. With regard to the reliability statistics, the largest coefficient of variation (CV) was observed for the vertical jump (CV = 6.7-7.2%) of both genders, whereas the sprint and COD assessments had smallest variability (CV = 0.8 to 2.8%). All intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were greater than 0.85, except for the men's COD assessment with the alternate leg. The shared variance between the single-leg vertical, horizontal, and lateral jumps for men and women was less than 50%, indicating that the jumps are relatively independent of one another and represent different leg strength/power qualities. The ability of the jumps to predict sprint and COD performance was limited (R2 < 43%). It would seem that the ability to change direction with 1 leg is relatively independent of a COD with the other leg, especially in the women (R < 30%) of this study. However, if 1 jump assessment were selected to predict sprint and COD performance in a test battery, the single-leg horizontal countermovement jump would seem the logical choice, given the results of this study. Many of the findings in this study have interesting diagnostic and training implications for the strength and conditioning coach.

  6. Predicting interatrial septum rotation: is the position of the heart or the direction of the coronary sinus reliable?: Implications for interventional electrophysiologists from CT studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huan; Wang, Yanjing; Zhang, Zhenming; Liu, Lin; Yang, Ping

    2015-04-01

    Determining the location of the interatrial septum (IAS) is crucial for cardiac electrophysiology procedures. Empirical methods of predicting IAS orientation depend on anatomical landmarks, including determining it from the direction of the coronary sinus (CS) and the position of the heart (e.g., vertical or transverse). However, the reliability of these methods for predicting IAS rotation warrants further study. The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical utility of the relationship between IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position. Data from 115 patients undergoing coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography with no evidence of cardiac structural disease were collected and analyzed. Angulations describing IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position were measured. The relationships between IAS orientation and each of the other two parameters were subsequently analyzed. The mean angulations for IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position were 36.8 ± 7.3° (range 19.1-53.6), 37.7 ± 6.6° (range 21.3-50.1), and 37.1 ± 8.3° (range 19.2-61.0), respectively. We found a significant correlation between IAS orientation and CS direction (r = 0.928; P IAS orientation = 2.01 + 1.03 × CS direction (r(2) = 0.86). No correlation was observed between IAS orientation and heart position (P = 0.86). In patients without structural heart disease, CS direction may be a reliable predictor of IAS orientation, and may serve as a helpful reference for clinicians during invasive electrophysiological procedures. Further study is warranted to clarify the relationship between IAS orientation and heart position. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. LED system reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific

  8. A semi-flexible model prediction for the polymerization force exerted by a living F-actin filament on a fixed wall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierleoni, Carlo; Ciccotti, Giovanni; Ryckaert, Jean-Paul

    2015-10-01

    We consider a single living semi-flexible filament with persistence length ℓp in chemical equilibrium with a solution of free monomers at fixed monomer chemical potential μ1 and fixed temperature T. While one end of the filament is chemically active with single monomer (de)polymerization steps, the other end is grafted normally to a rigid wall to mimic a rigid network from which the filament under consideration emerges. A second rigid wall, parallel to the grafting wall, is fixed at distance L chain model with step size d and persistence length ℓp, hitting a hard wall. Explicit properties require the computation of the mean force f ¯ i ( L ) exerted by the wall at L and associated potential f ¯ i ( L ) = - d W i ( L ) / d L on a filament of fixed size i. By original Monte-Carlo calculations for few filament lengths in a wide range of compression, we justify the use of the weak bending universal expressions of Gholami et al. [Phys. Rev. E 74, 041803 (2006)] over the whole non-escaping filament regime. For a filament of size i with contour length Lc = (i - 1) d, this universal form is rapidly growing from zero (non-compression state) to the buckling value f b ( L c , ℓ p ) = /π 2 k B T ℓ p 4 Lc 2 over a compression range much narrower than the size d of a monomer. Employing this universal form for living filaments, we find that the average force exerted by a living filament on a wall at distance L is in practice L independent and very close to the value of the stalling force Fs H = ( k B T / d ) ln ( ρ ˆ 1 ) predicted by Hill, this expression being strictly valid in the rigid filament limit. The average filament force results from the product of the cumulative size fraction x = x ( L , ℓ p , ρ ˆ 1 ) , where the filament is in contact with the wall, times the buckling force on a filament of size Lc ≈ L, namely, Fs H = x f b ( L ; ℓ p ) . The observed L independence of Fs H implies that x ∝ L-2 for given ( ℓ p , ρ ˆ 1 ) and x ∝ ln ρ ˆ 1

  9. Flexible Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Jacobsen, Peter; Pallesen, Trine

    This report presents the first findings from our qualitative study of consumer behaviour vis-à-vis flexible consumption. The main of objective of this report is to present our first round of data from Bornholm, and to assist the design of products/services designed in WP6. In the report, we adopt...... the perspective of the consumer: what does living in a demand response setup look like to participants – and what kinds of behaviour and interest motivate – and emerge from – their participation in EcoGrid 2.0....

  10. Flexible Capitalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Approaching “work” as at heart a practice of exchange, this volume explores sociality in work environments marked by the kind of structural changes that have come to define contemporary “flexible” capitalism. It introduces anthropological exchange theory to a wider readership, and shows how...... the perspective offers new ways to enquire about the flexible capitalism’s social dimensions. The essays contribute to a trans-disciplinary scholarship on contemporary economic practice and change by documenting how, across diverse settings, “gift-like” socialities proliferate, and even sustain the intensified...

  11. Flexible nanovectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pugno, Nicola M

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we show that the control of adhesion in highly flexible (a property that could be crucial for smart drug delivery but which is still ignored in the literature) nanovectors can help in smartly targeting and delivering the drug. The existence of and the conditions for activating and controlling a super-adhesive state are addressed. Even if such a state has never been observed in nanovectors, our calculations, as well as observations in spiders and geckos, suggest its existence and feasible control. Control of the competition between the drag and the adhesive force is exploited to improve the targeting ability and a hierarchical model is applied to describe a real vasculature. The high flexibility of the nanovector is used to smartly deliver the drug only during adhesion by nanopumping or, as a limiting case, by the new concept of 'adhesion induced nanovector implosion'; a liquid drop analogy is utilized for the calculations. Fast (pumping) and slow (diffusion) drug deliveries can thus be separately controlled by controlling the size and shape of the nanovector. Multiple stage nanovectors are also briefly discussed, mimicking aerospace vector strategies.

  12. Flexible nanovectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugno, Nicola M.

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we show that the control of adhesion in highly flexible (a property that could be crucial for smart drug delivery but which is still ignored in the literature) nanovectors can help in smartly targeting and delivering the drug. The existence of and the conditions for activating and controlling a super-adhesive state are addressed. Even if such a state has never been observed in nanovectors, our calculations, as well as observations in spiders and geckos, suggest its existence and feasible control. Control of the competition between the drag and the adhesive force is exploited to improve the targeting ability and a hierarchical model is applied to describe a real vasculature. The high flexibility of the nanovector is used to smartly deliver the drug only during adhesion by nanopumping or, as a limiting case, by the new concept of 'adhesion induced nanovector implosion'; a liquid drop analogy is utilized for the calculations. Fast (pumping) and slow (diffusion) drug deliveries can thus be separately controlled by controlling the size and shape of the nanovector. Multiple stage nanovectors are also briefly discussed, mimicking aerospace vector strategies.

  13. Assessment of the sustainability of flexible building : the improved factor method : service life prediction of buildings in the Netherlands, applied to life cycle assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Nunen, H.

    2010-01-01

    The building sector is not well-known for its innovative character. Once in a while a particular field of expertise receives an impulse. In the period 1999-2005 such an impulse was given to the Industrial, Flexible and Deconstructable (IFD) building programme, which was funded by the Dutch national

  14. Energy Flexibility in the Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Billanes, Joy Dalmacio; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2017-01-01

    Energy flexibility can address the challenges of large scale integration of renewable energy resources and thereby increasing imbalance in the power system. Flexible power system can provide reliable supply, low electricity cost and sustainability. Various situations and factors influence...... the adoption of the flexibility solutions, such as flexible electricity generation, demand-response, and electricity storage. This paper tries to analyze the current energy flexibility solutions and the factors that can influence the energy flexibility adoption. This paper takes Philippines as case study...... to provide an overview of the current condition of the Philippines’ power system and discuss the energy flexibility in the Philippines’ power system. A further discussion and recommendation is conducted in the end of the paper....

  15. Modelling Flexible Pavement Response and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ullidtz, Per

    This textbook is primarily concerned with models for predicting the future condition of flexible pavements, as a function of traffic loading, climate, materials, etc., using analytical-empirical methods.......This textbook is primarily concerned with models for predicting the future condition of flexible pavements, as a function of traffic loading, climate, materials, etc., using analytical-empirical methods....

  16. Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

    1992-07-01

    The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

  17. A random forest based risk model for reliable and accurate prediction of receipt of transfusion in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hitinder S Gurm

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transfusion is a common complication of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI and is associated with adverse short and long term outcomes. There is no risk model for identifying patients most likely to receive transfusion after PCI. The objective of our study was to develop and validate a tool for predicting receipt of blood transfusion in patients undergoing contemporary PCI. METHODS: Random forest models were developed utilizing 45 pre-procedural clinical and laboratory variables to estimate the receipt of transfusion in patients undergoing PCI. The most influential variables were selected for inclusion in an abbreviated model. Model performance estimating transfusion was evaluated in an independent validation dataset using area under the ROC curve (AUC, with net reclassification improvement (NRI used to compare full and reduced model prediction after grouping in low, intermediate, and high risk categories. The impact of procedural anticoagulation on observed versus predicted transfusion rates were assessed for the different risk categories. RESULTS: Our study cohort was comprised of 103,294 PCI procedures performed at 46 hospitals between July 2009 through December 2012 in Michigan of which 72,328 (70% were randomly selected for training the models, and 30,966 (30% for validation. The models demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination (AUC: full model  = 0.888 (95% CI 0.877-0.899, reduced model AUC = 0.880 (95% CI, 0.868-0.892, p for difference 0.003, NRI = 2.77%, p = 0.007. Procedural anticoagulation and radial access significantly influenced transfusion rates in the intermediate and high risk patients but no clinically relevant impact was noted in low risk patients, who made up 70% of the total cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of transfusion among patients undergoing PCI can be reliably calculated using a novel easy to use computational tool (https://bmc2.org/calculators/transfusion. This risk prediction

  18. Comments on ;An improved Cauchy number approach for predicting the drag and reconfiguration of flexible vegetation; by Peter Whittaker, Catherine A.M.E. Wilson, and Jochen Aberle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li; Chen, Xiaobing

    2017-07-01

    Whittaker et al. (2015) presented a modified Cauchy number approach for the estimate of flow resistance induced by flexible vegetation. The approach represents a noteworthy effort in quantifying vegetation resistance to streamflow. Here we briefly discuss some theoretical and practical issues of this approach, and show how it is related to the approach developed by Kouwen and others (Kouwen et al., 1969; Kouwen and Unny, 1973) and recently revised by Chen et al. (2014).

  19. Interactive reliability assessment using an integrated reliability data bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allan, R.N.; Whitehead, A.M.

    1986-01-01

    The logical structure, techniques and practical application of a computer-aided technique based on a microcomputer using floppy disc Random Access Files is described. This interactive computational technique is efficient if the reliability prediction program is coupled directly to a relevant source of data to create an integrated reliability assessment/reliability data bank system. (DG)

  20. Reliable Prediction with Tuned Range-Separated Functionals of the Singlet-Triplet Gap in Organic Emitters for Thermally Activated Delayed Fluorescence (TADF)

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Haitao

    2015-07-09

    The thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) mechanism has recently attracted much interest in the field of organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs). TADF relies on the presence of a very small energy gap between the lowest singlet and triplet excited states. Here, we demonstrate that time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) in the Tamm-Dancoff Approximation can be very successful in the calculations of the lowest singlet and triplet excitation energies and the corresponding singlet-triplet gap when using nonempirically tuned range-separated functionals. Such functionals provide very good estimates in a series of 17 molecules used in TADF-based OLED devices, with mean absolute deviations of 0.15 eV for the vertical singlet excitation energies and 0.09 eV [0.07 eV] for the adiabatic [vertical] singlet-triplet energy gaps as well as low relative errors and high correlation coefficients compared to the corresponding experimental values. They significantly outperform conventional functionals, a feature which is rationalized on the basis of the amount of exact-exchange included and the delocalization error. The present work provides a reliable theoretical tool for the prediction and development of novel TADF-based materials with low singlet-triplet energetic splittings.

  1. Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.

    1999-01-01

    Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.

  2. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1987-01-01

    Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

  3. Empowering Variable Renewables - Options for Flexible Electricity Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandler, Hugo [Renewable Energy Unit, International Energy Agency, Paris (France)

    2008-07-01

    A flexible electricity system is one that can respond reliably, and rapidly, to large fluctuations in supply and demand. Flexibility is already present in all power systems, in order to manage fluctuations in demand, and it is crucial for high performance and economic and reliable operation. This paper looks at measures to increase flexibility. but careful cost/benefit analysis is essential, and specific national and regional circumstances will influence the choice of option(s).

  4. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  5. Reliability of construction materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merz, H.

    1976-01-01

    One can also speak of reliability with respect to materials. While for reliability of components the MTBF (mean time between failures) is regarded as the main criterium, this is replaced with regard to materials by possible failure mechanisms like physical/chemical reaction mechanisms, disturbances of physical or chemical equilibrium, or other interactions or changes of system. The main tasks of the reliability analysis of materials therefore is the prediction of the various failure reasons, the identification of interactions, and the development of nondestructive testing methods. (RW) [de

  6. Structural Reliability Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

    The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....

  7. Multiconformation, Density Functional Theory-Based pKa Prediction in Application to Large, Flexible Organic Molecules with Diverse Functional Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochevarov, Art D; Watson, Mark A; Greenwood, Jeremy R; Philipp, Dean M

    2016-12-13

    We consider the conformational flexibility of molecules and its implications for micro- and macro-pK a . The corresponding formulas are derived and discussed against the background of a comprehensive scientific and algorithmic description of the latest version of our computer program Jaguar pK a , a density functional theory-based pK a predictor, which is now capable of acting on multiple conformations explicitly. Jaguar pK a is essentially a complex computational workflow incorporating research and technologies from the fields of cheminformatics, molecular mechanics, quantum mechanics, and implicit solvation models. The workflow also makes use of automatically applied empirical corrections which account for the systematic errors resulting from the neglect of explicit solvent interactions in the algorithm's implicit solvent model. Applications of our program to large, flexible organic molecules representing several classes of functional groups are shown, with a particular emphasis in illustrations laid on drug-like molecules. It is demonstrated that a combination of aggressive conformational search and an explicit consideration of multiple conformations nearly eliminates the dependence of results on the initially chosen conformation. In certain cases this leads to unprecedented accuracy, which is sufficient for distinguishing stereoisomers that have slightly different pK a values. An application of Jaguar pK a to proton sponges, the pK a of which are strongly influenced by steric effects, showcases the advantages that pK a predictors based on quantum mechanical calculations have over similar empirical programs.

  8. Architecture of cognitive flexibility revealed by lesion mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbey, Aron K.; Colom, Roberto; Grafman, Jordan

    2013-01-01

    Neuroscience has made remarkable progress in understanding the architecture of human intelligence, identifying a distributed network of brain structures that support goal-directed, intelligent behavior. However, the neural foundations of cognitive flexibility and adaptive aspects of intellectual function remain to be well characterized. Here, we report a human lesion study (n = 149) that investigates the neural bases of key competencies of cognitive flexibility (i.e., mental flexibility and the fluent generation of new ideas) and systematically examine their contributions to a broad spectrum of cognitive and social processes, including psychometric intelligence (Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale), emotional intelligence (Mayer, Salovey, Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test), and personality (Neuroticism–Extraversion–Openness Personality Inventory). Latent variable modeling was applied to obtain error-free indices of each factor, followed by voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping to elucidate their neural substrates. Regression analyses revealed that latent scores for psychometric intelligence reliably predict latent scores for cognitive flexibility (adjusted R2 = 0.94). Lesion mapping results further indicated that these convergent processes depend on a shared network of frontal, temporal, and parietal regions, including white matter association tracts, which bind these areas into an integrated system. A targeted analysis of the unique variance explained by cognitive flexibility further revealed selective damage within the right superior temporal gyrus, a region known to support insight and the recognition of novel semantic relations. The observed findings motivate an integrative framework for understanding the neural foundations of adaptive behavior, suggesting that core elements of cognitive flexibility emerge from a distributed network of brain regions that support specific competencies for human intelligence. PMID:23721727

  9. External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the Modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status After Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juhyun; Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Oh, Sohee; Lee, Jeong Woo; Lee, Seung Bae; Son, Hwancheol; Jeong, Hyeon; Cho, Sung Yong

    2015-08-01

    The modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity scoring system (S-ReSC-R) for retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) was developed as a tool to predict stone-free rate (SFR) after RIRS. We externally validated the S-ReSC-R. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients who underwent RIRS. The S-ReSC-R was assigned from 1 to 12 according to the location and number of sites involved. The stone-free status was defined as no evidence of a stone or with clinically insignificant residual fragment stones less than 2 mm. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. Statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Overall SFR was 73.0%. The SFRs were 86.7%, 70.2%, and 48.6% in low-score (1-2), intermediate-score (3-4), and high-score (5-12) groups, respectively (pR revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.731 (95% CI 0.650-0.813). The AUC of the three-titered S-ReSC-R was 0.701 (95% CI 0.609-0.794). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of observed frequency. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed a p-value of 0.01 for the S-ReSC-R and 0.90 for the three-titered S-ReSC-R. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities revealed an almost perfect level of agreement. The present study proved the predictive value of S-ReSC-R to predict SFR following RIRS in an independent cohort. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities confirmed that S-ReSC-R was reliable and valid.

  10. Flexible Electronics Research Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Flexible Electronics Research Facility designs, synthesizes, tests, and fabricates materials and devices compatible with flexible substrates for Army information...

  11. Reliability Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Lazzaroni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

  12. Reliability training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

    1992-01-01

    Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

  13. Software reliability studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoppa, Mary Ann; Wilson, Larry W.

    1994-01-01

    There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Our research has shown that by improving the quality of the data one can greatly improve the predictions. We are working on methodologies which control some of the randomness inherent in the standard data generation processes in order to improve the accuracy of predictions. Our contribution is twofold in that we describe an experimental methodology using a data structure called the debugging graph and apply this methodology to assess the robustness of existing models. The debugging graph is used to analyze the effects of various fault recovery orders on the predictive accuracy of several well-known software reliability algorithms. We found that, along a particular debugging path in the graph, the predictive performance of different models can vary greatly. Similarly, just because a model 'fits' a given path's data well does not guarantee that the model would perform well on a different path. Further we observed bug interactions and noted their potential effects on the predictive process. We saw that not only do different faults fail at different rates, but that those rates can be affected by the particular debugging stage at which the rates are evaluated. Based on our experiment, we conjecture that the accuracy of a reliability prediction is affected by the fault recovery order as well as by fault interaction.

  14. Systems reliability/structural reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)

  15. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles-improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA).

    KAUST Repository

    Grö tzinger, Stefan W.; Alam, Intikhab; Ba Alawi, Wail; Bajic, Vladimir B.; Stingl, Ulrich; Eppinger, Jö rg

    2014-01-01

    Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs) and poor homology of novel extremophile's genomes pose significant

  16. Reliable prediction of clinical outcome in patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis: a validated model using objective and readily available clinical parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Meer, Adriaan J; Hansen, Bettina E; Fattovich, Giovanna; Feld, Jordan J; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Dufour, Jean-François; Lammert, Frank; Duarte-Rojo, Andres; Manns, Michael P; Ieluzzi, Donatella; Zeuzem, Stefan; Hofmann, W Peter; de Knegt, Robert J; Veldt, Bart J; Janssen, Harry L A

    2015-02-01

    Reliable tools to predict long-term outcome among patients with well compensated advanced liver disease due to chronic HCV infection are lacking. Risk scores for mortality and for cirrhosis-related complications were constructed with Cox regression analysis in a derivation cohort and evaluated in a validation cohort, both including patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced fibrosis. In the derivation cohort, 100/405 patients died during a median 8.1 (IQR 5.7-11.1) years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox analyses showed age (HR=1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, pstatistic=0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.83). In the validation cohort, 58/296 patients with cirrhosis died during a median of 6.6 (IQR 4.4-9.0) years. Among patients with estimated 5-year mortality risks 10%, the observed 5-year mortality rates in the derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.9% (95% CI 0.0 to 2.7) and 2.6% (95% CI 0.0 to 6.1), 8.1% (95% CI 1.8 to 14.4) and 8.0% (95% CI 1.3 to 14.7), 21.8% (95% CI 13.2 to 30.4) and 20.9% (95% CI 13.6 to 28.1), respectively (C statistic in validation cohort = 0.76, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.83). The risk score for cirrhosis-related complications also incorporated HCV genotype (C statistic = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.83 in the derivation cohort; and 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.79 in the validation cohort). Prognosis of patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced liver disease can be accurately assessed with risk scores including readily available objective clinical parameters. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. High defect stage, contralateral defects, and poor flexibility are negative predictive factors of bone union in pediatric and adolescent athletes with spondylolysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Kazufumi; Kota, Shintaro; Oikawa, Daisuke; Suzuki, Yoshiji

    2018-01-01

    To identify predisposition to spondylolysis and physical characteristics associated with "bone union" following conservative spondylolysis treatment among pediatric and adolescent athletes. We retrospectively analyzed pediatric and adolescent athletes with spondylolysis who underwent conservative treatment and rehabilitation for three or more consecutive months following sports activity cessation. Patients with terminal spondylolysis or who did not discontinue sports activities were excluded. We compared physical fitness factors in the union and nonunion groups and examined the association between bone union and spondylolysis severity by logistic regression analysis. Of 183 patients with spondylolysis who underwent rehabilitation over a four-year period, 127 patients with 227 defects were included in the final analysis. Bone union was achieved in 66.5% (151/227) of the pars interarticularis defects and 70.1% (89/127) of the patients. On multivariate analysis, stage of pars interarticularis defect (odds ratio [OR], 0.26;p = 0.0027), stage of contralateral pars interarticularis defect (OR, 0.51;p = 0.00026), and straight leg-raising test (OR, 1.06;p = 0.028) were significantly associated with bone union. High defect stage, stage of the contralateral pars interarticularis defect, and poor flexibility were negative prognostic factors of bone healing in athletes with spondylolysis. J. Med. Invest. 65:126-130, February, 2018.

  18. Balance and flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-12-01

    The 'work-life balance' and flexible working are currently key buzz terms in the NHS. Those looking for more information on these topics should visit Flexibility at www.flexibility.co.uk for a host of resources designed to support new ways of working, including information on flexible workers and flexible rostering, the legal balancing act for work-life balance and home working.

  19. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubb, H.

    1992-01-01

    This book resulted from the activity of Task Force 4.2 - 'Human Reliability'. This group was established on February 27th, 1986, at the plenary meeting of the Technical Reliability Committee of VDI, within the framework of the joint committee of VDI on industrial systems technology - GIS. It is composed of representatives of industry, representatives of research institutes, of technical control boards and universities, whose job it is to study how man fits into the technical side of the world of work and to optimize this interaction. In a total of 17 sessions, information from the part of ergonomy dealing with human reliability in using technical systems at work was exchanged, and different methods for its evaluation were examined and analyzed. The outcome of this work was systematized and compiled in this book. (orig.) [de

  20. Microelectronics Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-17

    inverters  connected in a chain. ................................................. 5  Figure 3  Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental  reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the  lifetime  reliability of advanced devices,  circuits and...or  FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device  lifetime  was found and thus the  reliability  that  can  be  conveniently

  1. Design for reliability in power electronics in renewable energy systems – status and future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede; Ma, Ke

    2013-01-01

    Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible interconnection of renewable sources, loads and electric grids. While targets concerning efficiency of power converters are within reach, recent research endeavors to predict and improve their reliability to ensure high availability, low...... maintenance costs, and herefore, low Levelized-Cost-of-Energy (LCOE) of renewable energy systems. This paper presents the prior-art Design for Reliability (DFR) process for power converters and addresses the paradigm shift to Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile based analysis. Moreover...

  2. Restriction in lateral bending range of motion, lumbar lordosis, and hamstring flexibility predicts the development of low back pain: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler, Sean G; Spink, Martin J; Ho, Alan; De Jonge, Xanne Janse; Chuter, Vivienne H

    2017-05-05

    Low back pain (LBP) is an increasingly common condition worldwide with significant costs associated with its management. Identification of musculoskeletal risk factors that can be treated clinically before the development of LBP could reduce costs and improve the quality of life of individuals. Therefore the aim was to systematically review prospective cohort studies investigating lower back and / or lower limb musculoskeletal risk factors in the development of LBP. MEDLINE, EMBASE, AMED, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to February 2016. No age, gender or occupational restrictions of participants were applied. Articles had to be published in English and have a 12 month follow-up period. Musculoskeletal risk factors were defined as any osseous, ligamentous, or muscular structure that was quantifiably measured at baseline. Studies were excluded if participants were pregnant, diagnosed with cancer, or had previous low back surgery. Two authors independently reviewed and selected relevant articles. Methodological quality was evaluated independently by two reviewers using a generic tool for observational studies. Twelve articles which evaluated musculoskeletal risk factors for the development of low back pain in 5459 participants were included. Individual meta-analyses were conducted based on risk factors common between studies. Meta-analysis revealed that reduced lateral flexion range of motion (OR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.24-0.73, p = 0.002), limited lumbar lordosis (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.98, p = 0.034), and restricted hamstring range of motion (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.98, p = 0.001) were significantly associated with the development of low back pain. Meta-analyses on lumbar extension range of motion, quadriceps flexibility, fingertip to floor distance, lumbar flexion range of motion, back muscle strength, back muscle endurance, abdominal strength, erector spinae cross sectional area, and quadratus

  3. Field reliability of electronic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elm, T.

    1984-02-01

    This report investigates, through several examples from the field, the reliability of electronic units in a broader sense. That is, it treats not just random parts failure, but also inadequate reliability design and (externally and internally) induced failures. The report is not meant to be merely an indication of the state of the art for the reliability prediction methods we know, but also as a contribution to the investigation of man-machine interplay in the operation and repair of electronic equipment. The report firmly links electronics reliability to safety and risk analyses approaches with a broader, system oriented view of reliability prediction and with postfailure stress analysis. It is intended to reveal, in a qualitative manner, the existence of symptom and cause patterns. It provides a background for further investigations to identify the detailed mechanisms of the faults and the remedical actions and precautions for achieving cost effective reliability. (author)

  4. Redefining reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, S.L.

    1995-01-01

    Want to buy some reliability? The question would have been unthinkable in some markets served by the natural gas business even a few years ago, but in the new gas marketplace, industrial, commercial and even some residential customers have the opportunity to choose from among an array of options about the kind of natural gas service they need--and are willing to pay for. The complexities of this brave new world of restructuring and competition have sent the industry scrambling to find ways to educate and inform its customers about the increased responsibility they will have in determining the level of gas reliability they choose. This article discusses the new options and the new responsibilities of customers, the needed for continuous education, and MidAmerican Energy Company's experiment in direct marketing of natural gas

  5. Flexible magnetoimpedance sensor

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Bodong; Kavaldzhiev, Mincho; Kosel, Jü rgen

    2015-01-01

    Flexible magnetoimpedance (MI) sensors fabricated using a NiFe/Cu/NiFe tri-layer on Kapton substrate have been studied. A customized flexible microstrip transmission line was employed to investigate the MI sensors's magnetic field and frequency

  6. Flexible piezotronic strain sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jun; Gu, Yudong; Fei, Peng; Mai, Wenjie; Gao, Yifan; Yang, Rusen; Bao, Gang; Wang, Zhong Lin

    2008-09-01

    Strain sensors based on individual ZnO piezoelectric fine-wires (PFWs; nanowires, microwires) have been fabricated by a simple, reliable, and cost-effective technique. The electromechanical sensor device consists of a single electrically connected PFW that is placed on the outer surface of a flexible polystyrene (PS) substrate and bonded at its two ends. The entire device is fully packaged by a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) thin layer. The PFW has Schottky contacts at its two ends but with distinctly different barrier heights. The I- V characteristic is highly sensitive to strain mainly due to the change in Schottky barrier height (SBH), which scales linear with strain. The change in SBH is suggested owing to the strain induced band structure change and piezoelectric effect. The experimental data can be well-described by the thermionic emission-diffusion model. A gauge factor of as high as 1250 has been demonstrated, which is 25% higher than the best gauge factor demonstrated for carbon nanotubes. The strain sensor developed here has applications in strain and stress measurements in cell biology, biomedical sciences, MEMS devices, structure monitoring, and more.

  7. Flexible Carpooling: Exploratory Study

    OpenAIRE

    Dorinson, Diana; Gay, Deanna; Minett, Paul; Shaheen, Susan

    2009-01-01

    Energy consumption could be reduced if more people shared rides rather than driving alone yet carpooling represents a small proportion of all potential carpoolers. Prior research has found that many who might carpool were concerned about reduced flexibility with carpooling. If flexibility is one of the barriers how could carpooling be organized to be more flexible? In Northern Virginia a flexible system has evolved where there are 3,500 single-use carpools per day. In another example there ...

  8. IDEPI: rapid prediction of HIV-1 antibody epitopes and other phenotypic features from sequence data using a flexible machine learning platform.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Lance Hepler

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Since its identification in 1983, HIV-1 has been the focus of a research effort unprecedented in scope and difficulty, whose ultimate goals--a cure and a vaccine--remain elusive. One of the fundamental challenges in accomplishing these goals is the tremendous genetic variability of the virus, with some genes differing at as many as 40% of nucleotide positions among circulating strains. Because of this, the genetic bases of many viral phenotypes, most notably the susceptibility to neutralization by a particular antibody, are difficult to identify computationally. Drawing upon open-source general-purpose machine learning algorithms and libraries, we have developed a software package IDEPI (IDentify EPItopes for learning genotype-to-phenotype predictive models from sequences with known phenotypes. IDEPI can apply learned models to classify sequences of unknown phenotypes, and also identify specific sequence features which contribute to a particular phenotype. We demonstrate that IDEPI achieves performance similar to or better than that of previously published approaches on four well-studied problems: finding the epitopes of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNab, determining coreceptor tropism of the virus, identifying compartment-specific genetic signatures of the virus, and deducing drug-resistance associated mutations. The cross-platform Python source code (released under the GPL 3.0 license, documentation, issue tracking, and a pre-configured virtual machine for IDEPI can be found at https://github.com/veg/idepi.

  9. Fluid and flexible minds: Intelligence reflects synchrony in the brain’s intrinsic network architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Ferguson

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Human intelligence has been conceptualized as a complex system of dissociable cognitive processes, yet studies investigating the neural basis of intelligence have typically emphasized the contributions of discrete brain regions or, more recently, of specific networks of functionally connected regions. Here we take a broader, systems perspective in order to investigate whether intelligence is an emergent property of synchrony within the brain’s intrinsic network architecture. Using a large sample of resting-state fMRI and cognitive data (n = 830, we report that the synchrony of functional interactions within and across distributed brain networks reliably predicts fluid and flexible intellectual functioning. By adopting a whole-brain, systems-level approach, we were able to reliably predict individual differences in human intelligence by characterizing features of the brain’s intrinsic network architecture. These findings hold promise for the eventual development of neural markers to predict changes in intellectual function that are associated with neurodevelopment, normal aging, and brain disease. In our study, we aimed to understand how individual differences in intellectual functioning are reflected in the intrinsic network architecture of the human brain. We applied statistical methods, known as spectral decompositions, in order to identify individual differences in the synchronous patterns of spontaneous brain activity that reliably predict core aspects of human intelligence. The synchrony of brain activity at rest across multiple discrete neural networks demonstrated positive relationships with fluid intelligence. In contrast, global synchrony within the brain’s network architecture reliably, and inversely, predicted mental flexibility, a core facet of intellectual functioning. The multinetwork systems approach described here represents a methodological and conceptual extension of earlier efforts that related differences in

  10. Cosmological constraints from the CFHTLenS shear measurements using a new, accurate, and flexible way of predicting non-linear mass clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angulo, Raul E.; Hilbert, Stefan

    2015-03-01

    We explore the cosmological constraints from cosmic shear using a new way of modelling the non-linear matter correlation functions. The new formalism extends the method of Angulo & White, which manipulates outputs of N-body simulations to represent the 3D non-linear mass distribution in different cosmological scenarios. We show that predictions from our approach for shear two-point correlations at 1-300 arcmin separations are accurate at the ˜10 per cent level, even for extreme changes in cosmology. For moderate changes, with target cosmologies similar to that preferred by analyses of recent Planck data, the accuracy is close to ˜5 per cent. We combine this approach with a Monte Carlo Markov chain sampler to explore constraints on a Λ cold dark matter model from the shear correlation functions measured in the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS). We obtain constraints on the parameter combination σ8(Ωm/0.27)0.6 = 0.801 ± 0.028. Combined with results from cosmic microwave background data, we obtain marginalized constraints on σ8 = 0.81 ± 0.01 and Ωm = 0.29 ± 0.01. These results are statistically compatible with previous analyses, which supports the validity of our approach. We discuss the advantages of our method and the potential it offers, including a path to model in detail (i) the effects of baryons, (ii) high-order shear correlation functions, and (iii) galaxy-galaxy lensing, among others, in future high-precision cosmological analyses.

  11. Sources of Operational Flexibility, Greening the Grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katz, Jessica; Milligan, Michael; Cochran, Jaquelin

    2015-05-01

    Changes in electricity demand and generation must be constantly balanced to maintain power system stability and reliability. Operational flexibility refers to the ability of a power system to respond to these changes. Power systems are designed and operated to efficiently manage variability and uncertainty in electricity demand and resource availability. Variable renewable energy (VRE) increases this inherent variability and uncertainty, and thus increases the need for flexibility. Systems with significant variability and uncertainty require flexible generators that can rapidly change output, operate efficiently at lower outputs, and operate for short durations. This flexibility in turn can reduce the need to curtail (decrease the output of) solar and wind generation; improve investor confidence in VRE and revenue streams; decrease the risk of negative market pricing (which results when conventional generators cannot turn down to low outputs during times of high VRE output); and reduce environmental impacts by increasing system efficiency and maximizing the utilization of VRE.

  12. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles—improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grötzinger, Stefan W.; Alam, Intikhab; Ba Alawi, Wail; Bajic, Vladimir B.; Stingl, Ulrich; Eppinger, Jörg

    2014-01-01

    Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs) and poor homology of novel extremophile's genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the Integrated Data Warehouse of Microbial Genomes (INDIGO) data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes) may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile and Pattern Matching (PPM) strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO)-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles) and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern). The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2577 enzyme commission (E.C.) numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from six different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter) and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter). Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits) are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns) are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available

  13. Reliability of the Load-Velocity Relationship Obtained Through Linear and Polynomial Regression Models to Predict the One-Repetition Maximum Load.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pestaña-Melero, Francisco Luis; Haff, G Gregory; Rojas, Francisco Javier; Pérez-Castilla, Alejandro; García-Ramos, Amador

    2017-12-18

    This study aimed to compare the between-session reliability of the load-velocity relationship between (1) linear vs. polynomial regression models, (2) concentric-only vs. eccentric-concentric bench press variants, as well as (3) the within-participants vs. the between-participants variability of the velocity attained at each percentage of the one-repetition maximum (%1RM). The load-velocity relationship of 30 men (age: 21.2±3.8 y; height: 1.78±0.07 m, body mass: 72.3±7.3 kg; bench press 1RM: 78.8±13.2 kg) were evaluated by means of linear and polynomial regression models in the concentric-only and eccentric-concentric bench press variants in a Smith Machine. Two sessions were performed with each bench press variant. The main findings were: (1) first-order-polynomials (CV: 4.39%-4.70%) provided the load-velocity relationship with higher reliability than second-order-polynomials (CV: 4.68%-5.04%); (2) the reliability of the load-velocity relationship did not differ between the concentric-only and eccentric-concentric bench press variants; (3) the within-participants variability of the velocity attained at each %1RM was markedly lower than the between-participants variability. Taken together, these results highlight that, regardless of the bench press variant considered, the individual determination of the load-velocity relationship by a linear regression model could be recommended to monitor and prescribe the relative load in the Smith machine bench press exercise.

  14. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles – Improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Wolfgang Grötzinger

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs and poor homology of novel extremophile’s genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the INDIGO data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile & Pattern Matching (PPM strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern. The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2,577 E.C. numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from 6 different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter. Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available through the INDIGO website.

  15. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles-improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA).

    KAUST Repository

    Grötzinger, Stefan W.

    2014-04-07

    Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs) and poor homology of novel extremophile\\'s genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the Integrated Data Warehouse of Microbial Genomes (INDIGO) data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes) may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile and Pattern Matching (PPM) strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO)-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles) and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern). The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2577 enzyme commission (E.C.) numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from six different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter) and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter). Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits) are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns) are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available

  16. Flexible eddy current coil arrays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krampfner, Y.; Johnson, D.P.

    1987-01-01

    A novel approach was devised to overcome certain limitations of conventional eddy current testing. The typical single-element hand-wound probe was replaced with a two dimensional array of spirally wound probe elements deposited on a thin, flexible polyimide substrate. This provides full and reliable coverage of the test area and eliminates the need for scanning. The flexible substrate construction of the array allows the probes to conform to irregular part geometries, such as turbine blades and tubing, thereby eliminating the need for specialized probes for each geometry. Additionally, the batch manufacturing process of the array can yield highly uniform and reproducible coil geometries. The array is driven by a portable computer-based eddy current instrument, smartEDDY/sup TM/, capable of two-frequency operation, and offers a great deal of versatility and flexibility due to its software-based architecture. The array is coupled to the instrument via an 80-switch multiplexer that can be configured to address up to 1600 probes. The individual array elements may be addressed in any desired sequence, as defined by the software

  17. The fair value of operational reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Morel, Benoit

    2005-01-01

    Information about the uncertainties that surround the operation of the power system can be used to enlighten the debate of how much reliability should be pursued and how resources should be allocated to pursue it. In this paper we present a method to determine the value of having flexible generators to react to load fluctuations. This value can be seen as the value of hedging against the uncertainty on the load due to the volatility of the demand and the possibility of congestion. Because having this flexibility can be related to a financial option, we will use an extension of options theory and in particular the risk-neutral valuation method, to find a risk neutral quantification of its value. We illustrate our point valuing the flexibility that leads to ''operational reliability'' in the PJM market. Our formula for that value is what we call ''the fair value'' of operational reliability. (Author)

  18. Reliability Of Kraus-Weber Exercise Test As An Evaluation Tool In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reliability Of Kraus-Weber Exercise Test As An Evaluation Tool In Low Back ... strength and flexibility of the back, abdominal, psoas and hamstring muscles. ... Keywords: Kraus-Weber test, low back pain, muscle flexibility, muscle strength.

  19. Binding free energy predictions of farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonists using a linear interaction energy (LIE) approach with reliability estimation: application to the D3R Grand Challenge 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rifai, Eko Aditya; van Dijk, Marc; Vermeulen, Nico P. E.; Geerke, Daan P.

    2018-01-01

    Computational protein binding affinity prediction can play an important role in drug research but performing efficient and accurate binding free energy calculations is still challenging. In the context of phase 2 of the Drug Design Data Resource (D3R) Grand Challenge 2 we used our automated eTOX ALLIES approach to apply the (iterative) linear interaction energy (LIE) method and we evaluated its performance in predicting binding affinities for farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonists. Efficiency was obtained by our pre-calibrated LIE models and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations at the nanosecond scale, while predictive accuracy was obtained for a small subset of compounds. Using our recently introduced reliability estimation metrics, we could classify predictions with higher confidence by featuring an applicability domain (AD) analysis in combination with protein-ligand interaction profiling. The outcomes of and agreement between our AD and interaction-profile analyses to distinguish and rationalize the performance of our predictions highlighted the relevance of sufficiently exploring protein-ligand interactions during training and it demonstrated the possibility to quantitatively and efficiently evaluate if this is achieved by using simulation data only.

  20. Office flexible cystoscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavoussi, L R; Clayman, R V

    1988-11-01

    Since the development of the first purpose-built flexible cystoscope in 1984, flexible cystoscopy has become an accepted diagnostic and therapeutic modality. Indeed, it is estimated that more than 10 per cent of practicing urologists are already familiar with this technology. The flexible cystoscope has markedly extended the urologist's ability to examine the bladder, and it has become a valuable adjunct to the rigid cystoscope. Although the operation of this instrument is vastly different from that of its rigid counterpart, with practice, the technique can be learned. After experience is obtained with diagnostic flexible cystoscopy, the urologist will likely prefer this new instrument for bladder inspection, as it provides for a more thorough yet less morbid and less expensive examination. In the future, the development of improved and smaller instrumentation will further extend the therapeutic indications for flexible cystoscopy. Indeed, advances in laser technology are already providing the urologist with 300- to 600-micron (0.9 to 1.8F) flexible probes capable of incision (KTP laser), fulguration (Nd:YAG laser), and stone disintegration (tunable dye laser). Lastly, the skills obtained in using the flexible cystoscope are all readily applicable to the development of dexterity with the already available flexible nephroscope and the more recently developed flexible ureteroscope.

  1. Proof tests on reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishima, Yoshitsugu

    1983-01-01

    In order to obtain public understanding on nuclear power plants, tests should be carried out to prove the reliability and safety of present LWR plants. For example, the aseismicity of nuclear power plants must be verified by using a large scale earthquake simulator. Reliability test began in fiscal 1975, and the proof tests on steam generators and on PWR support and flexure pins against stress corrosion cracking have already been completed, and the results have been internationally highly appreciated. The capacity factor of the nuclear power plant operation in Japan rose to 80% in the summer of 1983, and considering the period of regular inspection, it means the operation of almost full capacity. Japanese LWR technology has now risen to the top place in the world after having overcome the defects. The significance of the reliability test is to secure the functioning till the age limit is reached, to confirm the correct forecast of deteriorating process, to confirm the effectiveness of the remedy to defects and to confirm the accuracy of predicting the behavior of facilities. The reliability of nuclear valves, fuel assemblies, the heat affected zones in welding, reactor cooling pumps and electric instruments has been tested or is being tested. (Kako, I.)

  2. Reliability issues in active control of large flexible space structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandervelde, W. E.

    1986-01-01

    Efforts in this reporting period were centered on four research tasks: design of failure detection filters for robust performance in the presence of modeling errors, design of generalized parity relations for robust performance in the presence of modeling errors, design of failure sensitive observers using the geometric system theory of Wonham, and computational techniques for evaluation of the performance of control systems with fault tolerance and redundancy management

  3. Reliability analysis of wake-induced collision of flexible risers

    OpenAIRE

    Fu, Ping; Leira, Bernt Johan; Myrhaug, Dag

    2017-01-01

    Collision between risers is an important design and operational concern, especially in deep water since the probability of collision tends to increase as the riser length increases. Riser collision is due to the joint effects of many processes, i.e. environmental loads, hydrodynamic interference and surface floater motions and the most of them are stochastic processes. This paper provides an approach for estimating the failure probability of riser collision by considering these joint effects ...

  4. Between Flexibility and Reliability : Changing Planning Culture in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, C.Y.

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, China has undoubtedly undergone a dramatic process of urban growth and transformation. Apart from its speed and scope, what is less recognized is that these processes are confronting the Chinese planning institutions with new and unexpected demands almost on daily basis. In

  5. An accelerator controls network designed for reliability and flexibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDowell, W. P.; Sidorowicz, K. V.

    1997-01-01

    The APS accelerator control system is a typical modern system based on the standard control system model, which consists of operator interfaces to a network and computer-controlled interfaces to hardware. The network provides a generalized communication path between the host computers, operator workstations, input/output crates, and other hardware that comprise the control system. The network is an integral part of all modern control systems and network performance will determine many characteristics of a control system. This paper describes the methods used to provide redundancy for various network system components as well as methods used to provide comprehensive monitoring of this network. The effect of archiving tens of thousands of data points on a regular basis and the effect on the controls network will be discussed. Metrics are provided on the performance of the system under various conditions

  6. Behavioral flexibility and problem solving in an invasive bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Corina J

    2016-01-01

    Behavioral flexibility is considered an important trait for adapting to environmental change, but it is unclear what it is, how it works, and whether it is a problem solving ability. I investigated behavioral flexibility and problem solving experimentally in great-tailed grackles, an invasive bird species and thus a likely candidate for possessing behavioral flexibility. Grackles demonstrated behavioral flexibility in two contexts, the Aesop's Fable paradigm and a color association test. Contrary to predictions, behavioral flexibility did not correlate across contexts. Four out of 6 grackles exhibited efficient problem solving abilities, but problem solving efficiency did not appear to be directly linked with behavioral flexibility. Problem solving speed also did not significantly correlate with reversal learning scores, indicating that faster learners were not the most flexible. These results reveal how little we know about behavioral flexibility, and provide an immense opportunity for future research to explore how individuals and species can use behavior to react to changing environments.

  7. An Acoustic Charge Transport Imager for High Definition Television Applications: Reliability Modeling and Parametric Yield Prediction of GaAs Multiple Quantum Well Avalanche Photodiodes. Degree awarded Oct. 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, W. D.; Brennan, K. F.; Summers, C. J.; Yun, Ilgu

    1994-01-01

    Reliability modeling and parametric yield prediction of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiodes (APDs), which are of interest as an ultra-low noise image capture mechanism for high definition systems, have been investigated. First, the effect of various doping methods on the reliability of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiode (APD) structures fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated. Reliability is examined by accelerated life tests by monitoring dark current and breakdown voltage. Median device lifetime and the activation energy of the degradation mechanism are computed for undoped, doped-barrier, and doped-well APD structures. Lifetimes for each device structure are examined via a statistically designed experiment. Analysis of variance shows that dark-current is affected primarily by device diameter, temperature and stressing time, and breakdown voltage depends on the diameter, stressing time and APD type. It is concluded that the undoped APD has the highest reliability, followed by the doped well and doped barrier devices, respectively. To determine the source of the degradation mechanism for each device structure, failure analysis using the electron-beam induced current method is performed. This analysis reveals some degree of device degradation caused by ionic impurities in the passivation layer, and energy-dispersive spectrometry subsequently verified the presence of ionic sodium as the primary contaminant. However, since all device structures are similarly passivated, sodium contamination alone does not account for the observed variation between the differently doped APDs. This effect is explained by the dopant migration during stressing, which is verified by free carrier concentration measurements using the capacitance-voltage technique.

  8. Organizational flexibility estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Komarynets, Sofia

    2013-01-01

    By the help of parametric estimation the evaluation scale of organizational flexibility and its parameters was formed. Definite degrees of organizational flexibility and its parameters for the Lviv region enterprises were determined. Grouping of the enterprises under the existing scale was carried out. Special recommendations to correct the enterprises behaviour were given.

  9. Flexible magnetoimpidence sensor

    KAUST Repository

    Kavaldzhiev, Mincho

    2015-05-01

    Recently, flexible electronic devices have attracted increasing interest, due to the opportunities they promise for new applications such as wearable devices, where the components are required to flex during normal use[1]. In this light, different magnetic sensors, like microcoil, spin valve, giant magnetoresistance (GMR), magnetoimpedance (MI), have been studied previously on flexible substrates.

  10. Flexibility within Fidelity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Philip C.; Gosch, Elizabeth; Furr, Jami M.; Sood, Erica

    2008-01-01

    The authors address concerns regarding manual-based treatments, highlighting the role of flexibility and creativity. A cognitive-behavioral therapy for youth anxiety called the Coping Cat program demonstrates the flexible application of manuals and emphasizes the importance of a child-centered, personalized approach that involves the child in the…

  11. Flexible position probe assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitz, J.J.

    1977-01-01

    The combination of a plurality of tubular transducer sections and a flexible supporting member extending through the tubular transducer sections forms a flexible elongated probe of a design suitable for monitoring the level of an element, such as a nuclear magnetically permeable control rod or liquid. 3 claims, 23 figures

  12. Flexible Carbon Aerogels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Schwan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Carbon aerogels are highly porous materials with a large inner surface area. Due to their high electrical conductivity they are excellent electrode materials in supercapacitors. Their brittleness, however, imposes certain limitations in terms of applicability. In that context, novel carbon aerogels with varying degree of flexibility have been developed. These highly porous, light aerogels are characterized by a high surface area and possess pore structures in the micrometer range, allowing for a reversible deformation of the aerogel network. A high ratio of pore size to particle size was found to be crucial for high flexibility. For dynamic microstructural analysis, compression tests were performed in-situ within a scanning electron microscope allowing us to directly visualize the microstructural flexibility of an aerogel. The flexible carbon aerogels were found to withstand between 15% and 30% of uniaxial compression in a reversible fashion. These findings might stimulate further research and new application fields directed towards flexible supercapacitors and batteries.

  13. Global Sourcing Flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørberg Jensen, Peter D.; Petersen, Bent

    2013-01-01

    the higher costs (but decreased risk for value chain disruption) embedded in a more flexible global sourcing model that allows the firm to replicate and/or relocate activities across multiple locations. We develop a model and propositions on facilitating and constraining conditions of global sourcing...... sourcing flexibility. Here we draw on prior research in the fields of organizational flexibility, international business and global sourcing as well as case examples and secondary studies. In the second part of the paper, we discuss the implications of global sourcing flexibility for firm strategy...... and operations against the backdrop of the theory-based definition of the construct. We discuss in particular the importance of global sourcing flexibility for operational performance stability, and the trade-off between specialization benefits, emerging from location and service provider specialization, versus...

  14. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  15. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-01-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  16. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a reliable marker to predict insulin resistance and fibrosis stage in chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Razik, Ahmed; Mousa, Nasser; Besheer, Tarek A; Eissa, Mohamed; Elhelaly, Rania; Arafa, Mohammad; El-Wakeel, Niveen; Eldars, Waleed

    2015-12-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the most noxious infectious diseases. Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) had biochemical evidence of insulin resistance (IR). The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) integrates information on the inflammatory milieu and physiological stress. We aimed to investigate the clinical utility of NLR to predict the presence of IR and fibrosis in CHCvirus infection. The study included 234 CHC patients and 50 healthy controls. The CHC group was divided into two subgroups ; CHC with HOMA-IR>3 and CHC with HOMA-IR≤3. Liver biopsy, homeostasis model assessment-IR (HOMA-IR), neutrophil and lymphocyte counts were recorded ; and NLR was calculated. Proinflammatory cytokines [tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6)] were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Patients with HOMA-IR>3 had a higher NLR compared with patients with HOMA-IR≤3 [2.61±0.95 and 1.92±0.86, respectively, PC-reactive protein, TNF-α and IL-6 cytokines ; P3 and advanced fibrosis. This ratio can be used as a novel noninvasive marker to predict IR and advanced disease. © Acta Gastro-Enterologica Belgica.

  17. New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

  18. Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

  19. Frontiers of reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

    1998-01-01

    This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

  20. Cognitive flexibility in preschool children with and without stuttering disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichorn, Naomi; Marton, Klara; Pirutinsky, Steven

    2017-11-13

    Multifactorial explanations of developmental stuttering suggest that difficulties in self-regulation and weak attentional flexibility contribute to persisting stuttering. We tested this prediction by examining whether preschool-age children who stutter (CWS) shift their attention less flexibly than children who do not stutter (CWNS) during a modified version of the Dimension Card Change Sort (DCCS), a reliable measure of attention switching for young children. Sixteen CWS (12 males) and 30 children CWNS (11 males) participated in the study. Groups were matched on age (CWS: M=49.63, SD=10.34, range=38-80months; CWNS: M=50.63, SD=9.82, range=37-74months), cognitive ability, and language skills. All children completed a computer-based variation of the DCCS, in which they matched on-screen bivalent stimuli to response buttons based on rules that switched mid-task. Results showed increased slowing for CWS compared to controls during the postswitch phase, as well as contrasting patterns of speed-accuracy tradeoff for CWS and CWNS as they moved from the preswitch to postswitch phase of the task. Group differences in performance suggest that early stuttering may be associated with difficulty shifting attention efficiently and greater concern about errors. Findings are consistent with a growing literature indicating links between weak attentional control and persisting developmental stuttering. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Interfacial characterization of flexible hybrid electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafian, Sara; Amirkhizi, Alireza V.; Stapleton, Scott

    2018-03-01

    Flexible Hybrid Electronics (FHEs) are the new generation of electronics combining flexible plastic film substrates with electronic devices. Besides the electrical features, design improvements of FHEs depend on the prediction of their mechanical and failure behavior. Debonding of electronic components from the flexible substrate is one of the most common and critical failures of these devices, therefore, the experimental determination of material and interface properties is of great importance in the prediction of failure mechanisms. Traditional interface characterization involves isolated shear and normal mode tests such as the double cantilever beam (DCB) and end notch flexure (ENF) tests. However, due to the thin, flexible nature of the materials and manufacturing restrictions, tests mirroring traditional interface characterization experiments may not always be possible. The ideal goal of this research is to design experiments such that each mode of fracture is isolated. However, due to the complex nonlinear nature of the response and small geometries of FHEs, design of the proper tests to characterize the interface properties can be significantly time and cost consuming. Hence numerical modeling has been implemented to design these novel characterization experiments. This research involves loading case and specimen geometry parametric studies using numerical modeling to design future experiments where either shear or normal fracture modes are dominant. These virtual experiments will provide a foundation for designing similar tests for many different types of flexible electronics and predicting the failure mechanism independent of the specific FHE materials.

  2. Reliability of the ICRP's dose coefficients for members of the public: IV. Basis of the human alimentary tract model and uncertainties in model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.; Harrison, J.; Phipps, A.

    2007-01-01

    The biokinetic and dosimetric model of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract applied in current documents of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) was developed in the mid-1960's. The model was based on features of a reference adult male and was first used by the ICRP in Publication 30, Limits for Intakes of Radionuclides by Workers (Part 1, 1979). In the late 1990's an ICRP task group was appointed to develop a biokinetic and dosimetric model of the alimentary tract that reflects updated information and addresses current needs in radiation protection. The new age-specific and gender-specific model, called the Human Alimentary Tract Model (HATM), has been completed and will replace the GI model of Publication 30 in upcoming ICRP documents. This paper discusses the basis for the structure and parameter values of the HATM, summarises the uncertainties associated with selected features and types of predictions of the HATM and examines the sensitivity of dose estimates to these uncertainties for selected radionuclides. Emphasis is on generic biokinetic features of the HATM, particularly transit times through the lumen of the alimentary tract, but key dosimetric features of the model are outlined, and the sensitivity of tissue dose estimates to uncertainties in dosimetric as well as biokinetic features of the HATM are examined for selected radionuclides. (authors)

  3. Reliable prediction of heat transfer coefficient in three-phase bubble column reactor via adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and regularization network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmroodi Asil, A.; Nakhaei Pour, A.; Mirzaei, Sh.

    2018-04-01

    In the present article, generalization performances of regularization network (RN) and optimize adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are compared with a conventional software for prediction of heat transfer coefficient (HTC) as a function of superficial gas velocity (5-25 cm/s) and solid fraction (0-40 wt%) at different axial and radial locations. The networks were trained by resorting several sets of experimental data collected from a specific system of air/hydrocarbon liquid phase/silica particle in a slurry bubble column reactor (SBCR). A special convection HTC measurement probe was manufactured and positioned in an axial distance of 40 and 130 cm above the sparger at center and near the wall of SBCR. The simulation results show that both in-house RN and optimized ANFIS due to powerful noise filtering capabilities provide superior performances compared to the conventional software of MATLAB ANFIS and ANN toolbox. For the case of 40 and 130 cm axial distance from center of sparger, at constant superficial gas velocity of 25 cm/s, adding 40 wt% silica particles to liquid phase leads to about 66% and 69% increasing in HTC respectively. The HTC in the column center for all the cases studied are about 9-14% larger than those near the wall region.

  4. The reliability of finite element analysis results of the low impact test in predicting the energy absorption performance of thin-walled structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alipour, R.; Nejadx, Farokhi A.; Izman, S. [Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru (Malaysia)

    2015-05-15

    The application of dual phase steels (DPS) such as DP600 in the form of thin-walled structure in automotive components is being continuously increased as vehicle designers utilize modern steel grades and low weight structures to improve structural performance, make automotive light and reinforce crash performance. Preventing cost enhancement of broad investigations in this area can be gained by using computers in structural analysis in order to substitute lots of experiments with finite element analysis (FEA). Nevertheless, it necessitates to be certified that selected method including element type and solution methodology is capable of predicting real condition. In this paper, numerical and experimental studies are done to specify the effect of element type selection and solution methodology on the results of finite element analysis in order to investigate the energy absorption behavior of a DP600 thin-walled structure with three different geometries under a low impact loading. The outcomes indicated the combination of implicit method and solid elements is in better agreement with the experiments. In addition, using a combination of shell element types with implicit method reduces the time of simulation remarkably, although the error of results compared to the experiments increased to some extent.

  5. Predictive analysis on the electric energy distribution systems reliability: applying the synerGEE system; Analisis predictivo de la confiabilidad en los sistemas de distribucion de energia electrica: aplicando el sistema synerGEE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Andrade, Carlos

    2008-12-15

    Electrical distribution systems ought to deliver electric power as economical as possible with an acceptable degree of service quality and continuity. Nevertheless, their faults represent one of the main causes of customer's unavailability. At the moment, a wide range of determinist criteria in the improvement of systems reliability based on past behavior are used, but they do not respond to the stochastic nature of system behavior, and are applied without an adequate balance between reliability and economy. In order to obtain this balance a minimum cost planning methodology that considers the predictive analysis of different investment alternatives in addition to the past behavior of the system is required, which guarantees that the economic resource available and limited will be used to gather the greater possible reliability degree. In this work this problem is approached with the fundamentals and methodologies needed to assess the design effects and operative criteria over the main reliability indexes used by the main utilities around the world, with emphasis on the need to optimize economical resources. The use of the system SynerGEETM, is investigated, probing it as a useful tool for the predictive reliability analysis. Due to the lack of experience that exists in Mexico with this type of analysis, distribution engineers has to become familiar with the concepts of the reliability engineering, their application to establish distribution systems models, and acquiring the ability to use the modern simulation tools, allowing them to evaluate the behavior of these systems with enough analytical rigor. In this sense a serial of well known study cases are presented to help them in this labor. [Spanish] Los sistemas de distribucion de energia electrica deben satisfacer la demanda de energia electrica de la forma mas economica posible, con un grado de calidad y continuidad aceptable. Sin embargo, sus fallas son una de las principales causas de indisponibilidad en

  6. A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, B.; Xie, M.

    2000-01-01

    Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated

  7. Flexible Word Classes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    • First major publication on the phenomenon • Offers cross-linguistic, descriptive, and diverse theoretical approaches • Includes analysis of data from different language families and from lesser studied languages This book is the first major cross-linguistic study of 'flexible words', i.e. words...... that cannot be classified in terms of the traditional lexical categories Verb, Noun, Adjective or Adverb. Flexible words can - without special morphosyntactic marking - serve in functions for which other languages must employ members of two or more of the four traditional, 'specialised' word classes. Thus......, flexible words are underspecified for communicative functions like 'predicating' (verbal function), 'referring' (nominal function) or 'modifying' (a function typically associated with adjectives and e.g. manner adverbs). Even though linguists have been aware of flexible world classes for more than...

  8. Reversibly Bistable Flexible Electronics

    KAUST Repository

    Alfaraj, Nasir

    2015-01-01

    Introducing the notion of transformational silicon electronics has paved the way for integrating various applications with silicon-based, modern, high-performance electronic circuits that are mechanically flexible and optically semitransparent

  9. Flexibility in insulin prescription

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kalra

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This communication explores the concept of flexibility, a propos insulin preparations and insulin regimes used in the management of type 2 diabetes. The flexibility of an insulin regime or preparation is defined as their ability to be injected at variable times, with variable injection-meal time gaps, in a dose frequency and quantum determined by shared decision making, with a minimal requirement of glucose monitoring and health professional consultation, with no compromise on safety, efficiency and tolerability. The relative flexibility of various basal, prandial and dual action insulins, as well as intensive regimes, is compared. The biopsychosocial model of health is used to assess the utility of different insulins while encouraging a philosophy of flexible insulin usage.

  10. Modeling and control of flexible space structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wie, B.; Bryson, A. E., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The effects of actuator and sensor locations on transfer function zeros are investigated, using uniform bars and beams as generic models of flexible space structures. It is shown how finite element codes may be used directly to calculate transfer function zeros. The impulse response predicted by finite-dimensional models is compared with the exact impulse response predicted by the infinite dimensional models. It is shown that some flexible structures behave as if there were a direct transmission between actuator and sensor (equal numbers of zeros and poles in the transfer function). Finally, natural damping models for a vibrating beam are investigated since natural damping has a strong influence on the appropriate active control logic for a flexible structure.

  11. Flexible displays, rigid designs?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hornbæk, Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Rapid technological progress has enabled a wide range of flexible displays for computing devices, but the user experience--which we're only beginning to understand--will be the key driver for successful designs.......Rapid technological progress has enabled a wide range of flexible displays for computing devices, but the user experience--which we're only beginning to understand--will be the key driver for successful designs....

  12. System Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Tae Jin

    2005-02-01

    This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

  13. Flexible heat pipes with integrated bioinspired design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Yang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this work we report the facile fabrication and performance evaluation of flexible heat pipes that have integrated bioinspired wick structures and flexible polyurethane polymer connector design between the copper condenser and evaporator. Inside the heat pipe, a bioinspired superhydrophilic strong-base-oxidized copper mesh with multi-scale micro/nano-structures was used as the wicking material and deionized water was selected as working fluid. Thermal resistances of the fabricated flexible heat pipes charged with different filling ratios were measured under thermal power inputs ranging from 2 W to 12 W while the device was bent at different angles. The fabricated heat pipes with a 30% filling ratio demonstrated a low thermal resistance less than 0.01 K/W. Compared with the vertically oriented straight heat pipes, bending from 30° up to 120° has negligible influence on the heat-transfer performance. Furthermore, repeated heating tests indicated that the fabricated flexible heat pipes have consistent and reliable heat-transfer performance, thus would have important applications for advanced thermal management in three dimensional and flexible electronic devices.

  14. Reliability of Power Electronic Converter Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    -link capacitance in power electronic converter systems; wind turbine systems; smart control strategies for improved reliability of power electronics system; lifetime modelling; power module lifetime test and state monitoring; tools for performance and reliability analysis of power electronics systems; fault...... for advancing the reliability, availability, system robustness, and maintainability of PECS at different levels of complexity. Drawing on the experience of an international team of experts, this book explores the reliability of PECS covering topics including an introduction to reliability engineering in power...... electronic converter systems; anomaly detection and remaining-life prediction for power electronics; reliability of DC-link capacitors in power electronic converters; reliability of power electronics packaging; modeling for life-time prediction of power semiconductor modules; minimization of DC...

  15. Human reliability in complex systems: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1976-07-01

    A detailed analysis is presented of the main conceptual background underlying the areas of human reliability and human error. The concept of error is examined and generalized to that of human reliability, and some of the practical and methodological difficulties of reconciling the different standpoints of the human factors specialist and the engineer discussed. Following a survey of general reviews available on human reliability, quantitative techniques for prediction of human reliability are considered. An in-depth critical analysis of the various quantitative methods is then presented, together with the data bank requirements for human reliability prediction. Reliability considerations in process control and nuclear plant, and also areas of design, maintenance, testing and emergency situations are discussed. The effects of stress on human reliability are analysed and methods of minimizing these effects discussed. Finally, a summary is presented and proposals for further research are set out. (author)

  16. Inclusion of task dependence in human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Xiaoyan; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Xu, Peida; Deng, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important issue, which includes the evaluation of the dependence among human tasks and the effect of the dependence on the final human error probability (HEP). This paper represents a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. The aim of the study is to automatically provide conclusions on the overall degree of dependence and calculate the conditional human error probability (CHEP) once the judgments of the input factors are given. The dependence influencing factors are first identified by the experts and the priorities of these factors are also taken into consideration. Anchors and qualitative labels are provided as guidance for the HRA analyst's judgment of the input factors. The overall degree of dependence between human failure events is calculated based on the input values and the weights of the input factors. Finally, the CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) method. The proposed method is able to quantify the subjective judgment from the experts and improve the transparency in the HEP evaluation process. Two examples are illustrated to show the effectiveness and the flexibility of the proposed method. - Highlights: • We propose a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. • The priorities of the dependence influencing factors are taken into consideration. • The overall dependence degree is determined by input judgments and the weights of factors. • The CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from THERP

  17. Reliability analysis of shutdown system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, C. Senthil; John Arul, A.; Pal Singh, Om; Suryaprakasa Rao, K.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of Shutdown System (SDS) of Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Reliability analysis carried out using Fault Tree Analysis predicts a value of 3.5 x 10 -8 /de for failure of shutdown function in case of global faults and 4.4 x 10 -8 /de for local faults. Based on 20 de/y, the frequency of shutdown function failure is 0.7 x 10 -6 /ry, which meets the reliability target, set by the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. The reliability is limited by Common Cause Failure (CCF) of actuation part of SDS and to a lesser extent CCF of electronic components. The failure frequency of individual systems is -3 /ry, which also meets the safety criteria. Uncertainty analysis indicates a maximum error factor of 5 for the top event unavailability

  18. Steam generator reliability improvement project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blomgren, J.C.; Green, S.J.

    1987-01-01

    Upon successful completion of its research and development technology transfer program, the Electric Power Research Institute's Steam Generator Owners Group (SGOG II) will disband in December 1986 and be replaced in January 1987 by a successor project, the Steam Generator Reliability Project (SGRP). The new project, funded in the EPRI base program, will continue the emphasis on reliability and life extension that was carried forward by SGOG II. The objectives of SGOG II have been met. Causes and remedies have been identified for tubing corrosion problems, such as stress corrosion cracking and pitting, and steam generator technology has been improved in areas such as tube wear prediction and nondestructive evaluation (NDE). These actions have led to improved reliability of steam generators. Now the owners want to continue with a centrally managed program that builds on what has been learned. The goal is to continue to improve steam generator reliability and solve small problems before they become large problems

  19. Steam generator reliability improvement project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blomgren, J.C.; Green, S.J.

    1987-01-01

    Upon successful completion of its research and development technology transfer program, the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI's) Steam Generator Owners Group (SGOG II) will disband in December 1986, and be replaced in January 1987, by a successor project, the Steam Generator Reliability Project (SGRP). The new project, funded in the EPRI base program, will continue to emphasize reliability and life extension, which were carried forward by SGOG II. The objectives of SGOG II have been met. Causes and remedies have been identified for tubing corrosion problems such as stress corrosion cracking and pitting, and steam generator technology has been improved in areas such as tube wear prediction and nondestructive evaluation. These actions have led to improved reliability of steam generators. Now the owners want to continue with a centrally managed program that builds on what has been learned. The goal is to continue to improve steam generator reliability and to solve small problems before they become large problems

  20. Forecasting reliability of transformer populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.; Wetzer, J.; Wouters, P.A.A.F.

    2007-01-01

    The expected replacement wave in the current power grid faces asset managers with challenging questions. Setting up a replacement strategy and planning calls for a forecast of the long term component reliability. For transformers the future failure probability can be predicted based on the ongoing

  1. Flexible transparent electrode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demiryont, Hulya; Shannon, Kenneth C., III; Moorehead, David; Bratcher, Matthew

    2011-06-01

    This paper presents the properties of the EclipseTECTM transparent conductor. EclipseTECTM is a room temperature deposited nanostructured thin film coating system comprised of metal-oxide semiconductor elements. The system possesses metal-like conductivity and glass-like transparency in the visible region. These highly conductive TEC films exhibit high shielding efficiency (35dB at 1 to 100GHz). EclipseTECTM can be deposited on rigid or flexible substrates. For example, EclipseTECTM deposited on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is extremely flexible that can be rolled around a 9mm diameter cylinder with little or no reduction in electrical conductivity and that can assume pre-extension states after an applied stress is relieved. The TEC is colorless and has been tailored to have high visible transmittance which matches the eye sensitivity curve and allows the viewing of true background colors through the coating. EclipseTECTM is flexible, durable and can be tailored at the interface for applications such as electron- or hole-injecting OLED electrodes as well as electrodes in flexible displays. Tunable work function and optical design flexibility also make EclipseTECTM well-suited as a candidate for grid electrode replacement in next-generation photovoltaic cells.

  2. Flexible magnetoimpedance sensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Bodong; Kavaldzhiev, Mincho N.; Kosel, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    Flexible magnetoimpedance (MI) sensors fabricated using a NiFe/Cu/NiFe tri-layer on Kapton substrate have been studied. A customized flexible microstrip transmission line was employed to investigate the MI sensors's magnetic field and frequency responses and their dependence on the sensors's deflection. For the first time, the impedance characteristic is obtained through reflection coefficient analysis over a wide range of frequencies from 0.1 MHz to 3 GHz and for deflections ranging from zero curvature to a radius of 7.2 cm. The sensor element maintains a high MI ratio of up to 90% and magnetic sensitivity of up to 9.2%/Oe over different bending curvatures. The relationship between the curvature and material composition is discussed based on the magnetostriction effect and stress simulations. The sensor's large frequency range, simple fabrication process and high sensitivity provide a great potential for flexible electronics and wireless applications. - Highlights: • A flexible magnetoimpedance (MI) sensor is developed. • Studies are carried out using a flexible microstrip transmission line. • An MI ratio of up to 90% is obtained. • The effect of magnetostriction is studied

  3. Education for Flexible Personality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogomir Novak

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Flexible personality transforms both cultural environment and itself. Post-modern personality is both contemplative and active. On one hand, it is subject to inner imagination of a creative act, and on the other hand, to creation of a tangible product What is more, flexible personality is also autonomous, mature, healthy and well balanced, as well as stable and responsive to the demand for change. Due to ever quicker changes, flexible personality is a must. And it is a task. The impact of professional work of adults on the education of children, however, is being conditioned by the exrigid family and rigid enterprises or institutions in which adults are employed. Nevertheless, flexible educational style is not repressive, as it used to be, nor permissive and totally concentrated on the child. It is a choice between the two qualities. The educators' style is dependent on their attitude towards life (play and self-education and not only towards work. Nowadays, flexibility is a way towards quality management of social and personal changes.

  4. Flexible Foam Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neilsen, Michael K.; Lu, Wei-Yang; Werner, Brian T.; Scherzinger, William M.; Lo, Chi S.

    2018-03-01

    Experiments were performed to characterize the mechanical response of a 15 pcf flexible polyurethane foam to large deformation at different strain rates and temperatures. Results from these experiments indicated that at room temperature, flexible polyurethane foams exhibit significant nonlinear elastic deformation and nearly return to their original undeformed shape when unloaded. However, when these foams are cooled to temperatures below their glass transition temperature of approximately -35 o C, they behave like rigid polyurethane foams and exhibit significant permanent deformation when compressed. Thus, a new model which captures this dramatic change in behavior with temperature was developed and implemented into SIERRA with the name Flex_Foam to describe the mechanical response of both flexible and rigid foams to large deformation at a variety of temperatures and strain rates. This report includes a description of recent experiments. Next, development of the Flex Foam model for flexible polyurethane and other flexible foams is described. Selection of material parameters are discussed and finite element simulations with the new Flex Foam model are compared with experimental results to show behavior that can be captured with this new model.

  5. Gravure printing of graphene for large-area flexible electronics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secor, Ethan B; Lim, Sooman; Zhang, Heng; Frisbie, C Daniel; Francis, Lorraine F; Hersam, Mark C

    2014-07-09

    Gravure printing of graphene is demonstrated for the rapid production of conductive patterns on flexible substrates. Development of suitable inks and printing parameters enables the fabrication of patterns with a resolution down to 30 μm. A mild annealing step yields conductive lines with high reliability and uniformity, providing an efficient method for the integration of graphene into large-area printed and flexible electronics. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Natural flexible dermal armor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wen; Chen, Irene H; Gludovatz, Bernd; Zimmermann, Elizabeth A; Ritchie, Robert O; Meyers, Marc A

    2013-01-04

    Fish, reptiles, and mammals can possess flexible dermal armor for protection. Here we seek to find the means by which Nature derives its protection by examining the scales from several fish (Atractosteus spatula, Arapaima gigas, Polypterus senegalus, Morone saxatilis, Cyprinius carpio), and osteoderms from armadillos, alligators, and leatherback turtles. Dermal armor has clearly been developed by convergent evolution in these different species. In general, it has a hierarchical structure with collagen fibers joining more rigid units (scales or osteoderms), thereby increasing flexibility without significantly sacrificing strength, in contrast to rigid monolithic mineral composites. These dermal structures are also multifunctional, with hydrodynamic drag (in fish), coloration for camouflage or intraspecies recognition, temperature and fluid regulation being other important functions. The understanding of such flexible dermal armor is important as it may provide a basis for new synthetic, yet bioinspired, armor materials. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  7. Flexible magnetoimpedance sensor

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Bodong

    2015-03-01

    Flexible magnetoimpedance (MI) sensors fabricated using a NiFe/Cu/NiFe tri-layer on Kapton substrate have been studied. A customized flexible microstrip transmission line was employed to investigate the MI sensors\\'s magnetic field and frequency responses and their dependence on the sensors\\'s deflection. For the first time, the impedance characteristic is obtained through reflection coefficient analysis over a wide range of frequencies from 0.1 MHz to 3 GHz and for deflections ranging from zero curvature to a radius of 7.2 cm. The sensor element maintains a high MI ratio of up to 90% and magnetic sensitivity of up to 9.2%/Oe over different bending curvatures. The relationship between the curvature and material composition is discussed based on the magnetostriction effect and stress simulations. The sensor\\'s large frequency range, simple fabrication process and high sensitivity provide a great potential for flexible electronics and wireless applications.

  8. Software industrial flexible

    OpenAIRE

    Díaz Araya, Daniel; Muñoz, Leandro; Sirerol, Daniel; Oviedo, Sandra; Ibáñez, Francisco S.

    2012-01-01

    En este trabajo se pretende investigar y proponer técnicas, métodos y tecnologías que permitan el desarrollo de software flexible en ambientes industriales. El objetivo es generar métodos y técnicas para facilitar el desarrollo de software flexible en ambientes industriales. Las áreas de investigación son los sistemas de scheduling de producción, la generación de software para plataformas de hardware abiertas y la innovación.

  9. Production Flexibility and Hedging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Dionne

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We extend the analysis on hedging with price and output uncertainty by endogenizing the output decision. Specifically, we consider the joint determination of output and hedging in the case of flexibility in production. We show that the risk-averse firm always maintains a short position in the futures market when the futures price is actuarially fair. Moreover, in the context of an example, we show that the presence of production flexibility reduces the incentive to hedge for all risk averse agents.

  10. The flexibility of flexicurity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Carsten Strøby

    2011-01-01

    by a special relation between flexibility, social security and active labour market policy, where a high level of social security is seen as a precondition for a labour market characterized by flexibility. In this article it is argued that the Danish labour market is characterized by having not just one model...... of flexicurity, but two. These two models cover different parts of the labour market and different segments of employees. The first model (the blue-collar flexicurity model) – the one that is often focused on in the literature – covers primarily skilled and unskilled workers on the labour market. The second...

  11. AMSAA Reliability Growth Guide

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Broemm, William

    2000-01-01

    ... has developed reliability growth methodology for all phases of the process, from planning to tracking to projection. The report presents this methodology and associated reliability growth concepts.

  12. Flexible Transparent Supercapacitors Based on Hierarchical Nanocomposite Films.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fanhong; Wan, Pengbo; Xu, Haijun; Sun, Xiaoming

    2017-05-31

    Flexible transparent electronic devices have recently gained immense popularity in smart wearable electronics and touch screen devices, which accelerates the development of the portable power sources with reliable flexibility, robust transparency and integration to couple these electronic devices. For potentially coupled as energy storage modules in various flexible, transparent and portable electronics, the flexible transparent supercapacitors are developed and assembled from hierarchical nanocomposite films of reduced graphene oxide (rGO) and aligned polyaniline (PANI) nanoarrays upon their synergistic advantages. The nanocomposite films are fabricated from in situ PANI nanoarrays preparation in a blended solution of aniline monomers and rGO onto the flexible, transparent, and stably conducting film (FTCF) substrate, which is obtained by coating silver nanowires (Ag NWs) layer with Meyer rod and then coating of rGO layer on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) substrate. Optimization of the transparency, the specific capacitance, and the flexibility resulted in the obtained all-solid state nanocomposite supercapacitors exhibiting enhanced capacitance performance, good cycling stability, excellent flexibility, and superior transparency. It provides promising application prospects for exploiting flexible, low-cost, transparent, and high-performance energy storage devices to be coupled into various flexible, transparent, and wearable electronic devices.

  13. HPOTP low-speed flexible rotor balancing, phase 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, J.; Zorzi, E.

    1985-01-01

    A method was developed that shows promise in overcoming many balancing limitations. This method establishes one or more windows for low speed, out-of-housing balancing of flexible rotors. These windows are regions of speed and support flexibility where two conditions are simultaneously fulfilled. First, the rotor system behaves flexibly; therefore, there is separation among balance planes. Second, the response due to balance weights is large enough to reliably measure. The analytic formulation of the low-speed flexible rotor balancing method is described. The results of proof-of-principle tests conducted under the program are presented. Based on this effort, it is concluded that low speed flexible rotor balancing is a viable technology. In particular, the method can be used to balance a rotor bearing system at low speed which results in smooth operation above more than one bending critical speed. Furthermore, this balancing methodology is applicable to SSME turbopump rotors.

  14. The effects of human resource flexibility on human resources development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SeidMehdi Veise

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Human resources are the primary factor for development of competitiveness and innovation and reaching competitive advantage and they try to improve corporate capabilities through various characteristics such as value creation, scarcity and difficulty of imitation. This paper investigates the effect of human resource flexibility and its dimensions on human resource development and its dimensions. The survey was conducted using descriptive-correlation method that intended to describe how human resource flexibility was effective on human resource development. Questionnaire was tool of data collection. The statistical population included one hundred employees of the Electric Company in Ilam province, thus census method was used. Reliability of the questionnaire was measured via Cronbach's alpha equal to 0.96. The findings revealed that flexibility and its dimensions were effective on human resource development and dimensions of it. As a result, human resource flexibility should be considered for development of human resources and employees with the highest flexibility should be selected.

  15. Load and Flexibility Models for Distribution Grid Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kouzelis, Konstantinos

    to advanced metering and control infrastructure investments. These investments will transform distribution networks into smarter" grids which will facilitate flexible load/generation control in return for financial and reliability benefits to electricity consumers. The theoretical idea of modernising the grid...... involve lack of generic load forecasts, need for flexible load/generation estimation techniques from smart meter measurements, deficiencies in online load distribution observability, and, finally, energy market compatible control algorithms which treat consumer flexibility in a fair manner. These modules...... congestions, is proposed. In the first step, a central controller manages flexibility proactively, whereas in the second step a decentralised control scheme deals with flexibility reactively. Both controllers are designed in such a way, that compatibility with contemporary markets is assured, while special...

  16. Flexibility as a service

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Adams, M.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Pesic, M.; Schonenberg, H.; Chen, L.; Liu, C.; Liu, Q.; Deng, K.

    2009-01-01

    The lack of flexibility is often seen as an inhibitor for the successful application of workflow technology. Many researchers have proposed different ways of addressing this problem and some of these ideas have been implemented in commercial systems. However, a "one size fits all" approach is likely

  17. Valuing Flexibility. Phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-29

    Quarterly (2): 38-49. Cormier, P., Olewnik, A., and Lewis, K. 2008. An Approach to Quantifying Design Flexibility for Mass Customization in Early...C. Clarkson, P., and Zanker, W. 2004. Change and customisation in complex engineering domains, Res Eng Des 15(1), 1–21. Ekstrom, M. and Bjornsson, H

  18. Flexible Query Answering Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Flexible Query Answering Systems, FQAS 2017, held in London, UK, in June 2017. The 21 full papers presented in this book together with 4 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 43 submissions...

  19. Flexible metal bellows

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN PhotoLab

    1975-01-01

    A set of flexible metal bellows being fatigue-tested by repeated offset motion. Such bellows assemblies were used in the SPS vacuum system at places where , for instance, beam stoppers and collimators had to be moved frequently in and out of the beam path.

  20. Flexible energy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik

    2003-01-01

    The paper discusses and analyses diffent national strategies and points out key changes in the energy system in order to achieve a system which can benefit from a high percentage of wind and CHP without having surplus production problems, introduced here as a flexible energy system....

  1. A flexible WLAN receiver

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schiphorst, Roelof; Hoeksema, F.W.; Slump, Cornelis H.

    2003-01-01

    Flexible radio receivers are also called Software Defined Radios (SDRs) [1], [2]. The focus of our SDR project [3] is on designing the front end, from antenna to demodulation in bits, of a °exible, multi-standard WLAN receiver. We try to combine an instance of a (G)FSK receiver (Bluetooth) with an

  2. A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

  3. PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

  4. Analytical and numerical modeling for flexible pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Chen, Geng

    2011-12-01

    The unbonded flexible pipe of eight layers, in which all the layers except the carcass layer are assumed to have isotropic properties, has been analyzed. Specifically, the carcass layer shows the orthotropic characteristics. The effective elastic moduli of the carcass layer have been developed in terms of the influence of deformation to stiffness. With consideration of the effective elastic moduli, the structure can be properly analyzed. Also the relative movements of tendons and relative displacements of wires in helical armour layer have been investigated. A three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model has been presented to predict the response of flexible pipes under axial force and torque. Further, the friction and contact of interlayer have been considered. Comparison between the finite element model and experimental results obtained in literature has been given and discussed, which might provide practical and technical support for the application of unbonded flexible pipes.

  5. Estimation of Residential Heat Pump Consumption for Flexibility Market Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Tan, Zheng-Hua; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2015-01-01

    load of a flexible device, namely a Heat Pump (HP), out of the aggregated energy consumption of a house. The main idea for accomplishing this, is a comparison of the flexible consumer with electrically similar non-flexible consumers. The methodology is based on machine learning techniques, probability...... theory and statistics. After presenting this methodology, the general trend of the HP consumption is estimated and an hour-ahead forecast is conducted by employing Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average modeling. In this manner, the flexible consumption is predicted, establishing the basis......Recent technological advancements have facilitated the evolution of traditional distribution grids to smart grids. In a smart grid scenario, flexible devices are expected to aid the system in balancing the electric power in a technically and economically efficient way. To achieve this, the flexible...

  6. Reliability in the design phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siahpush, A.S.; Hills, S.W.; Pham, H.; Majumdar, D.

    1991-12-01

    A study was performed to determine the common methods and tools that are available to calculated or predict a system's reliability. A literature review and software survey are included. The desired product of this developmental work is a tool for the system designer to use in the early design phase so that the final design will achieve the desired system reliability without lengthy testing and rework. Three computer programs were written which provide the first attempt at fulfilling this need. The programs are described and a case study is presented for each one. This is a continuing effort which will be furthered in FY-1992. 10 refs

  7. Technical considerations for flexible piping design in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, S.C.; Chou, C.K.

    1985-01-01

    The overall objective of this research project is to develop a technical basis for flexible piping designs which will improve piping reliability and minimize the use of pipe supports, snubbers, and pipe whip restraints. The current study was conducted to establish the necessary groundwork based on the piping reliability analysis. A confirmatory piping reliability assessment indicated that removing rigid supports and snubbers tends to either improve or affect very little the piping reliability. A couple of changes to be implemented in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.61 and RG 1.122 aimed at more flexible piping design were investigated. It was concluded that these changes substantially reduce calculated piping responses and allows piping redesigns with significant reduction in number of supports and snubbers without violating ASME code requirements

  8. Energy Flexibility in Retail Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Zheng; Billanes, Joy Dalmacio; Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun

    2017-01-01

    Retail buildings has an important role for demand side energy flexibility because of their high energy consumption, variety of energy flexibility resources, and centralized control via building control systems. Energy flexibility requires agreements and collaborations among different actors......), with the discussion of the stakeholders’ roles and their interrelation in delivering energy flexibility with the influential factors to the actual implementation of energy flexible operation of their buildings. Based on a literature analysis, the results cover stakeholders’ types and roles, perceptions (drivers......, barriers, and benefits), energy management activities and technology adoptions, and the stakeholders’ interaction for the energy flexibility in retail buildings....

  9. Operational reliability management; Gestao da confiabilidade operacional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bressan, Edemir [Refinaria Alberto Pasqualini (REFAP), Canoas, RS (Brazil). Setor de Tecnologia de Equipamentos

    2000-07-01

    It is described the PETROBRAS Alberto Pasqualini Refinery process plant reliability management, strategies, maintenance organizational structure, management processes, predictive and preventive maintenance, condition monitoring techniques, reliability metrics, pointing out a need for close work relationship between production, maintenance and project engineering functions with highly qualified and committed proper teams, in order to reach one of the highest mechanical availability among Latin America refineries. (author)

  10. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    Reliability has always been a concern in the energy sector, but concerns are escalating as energy demand increases and the political stability of many energy supply regions becomes more questionable. But how does one define and measure reliability? We introduce a method to assess reliability in energy supply systems in terms of adequacy and security. It derives from reliability assessment frameworks developed for the electricity sector, which are extended to include qualitative considerations and to be applicable to new energy systems by incorporating decision-making processes based on expert opinion and multi-attribute utility theory. The method presented here is flexible and can be applied to any energy system. To illustrate its use, we apply the method to two hydrogen pathways: (1) centralized steam reforming of imported liquefied natural gas with pipeline distribution of hydrogen, and (2) on-site electrolysis of water using renewable electricity produced independently from the electricity grid

  11. Flexible power delivery system and its intelligent functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glamochanin, Vlastimir; Andonov, Dragan

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents some of the features and capabilities of the novel energy distribution system called FRIENDS. The main FRIENDS objective is distribution system reliability, with flexible system structure reconfiguration, inclusion of dispersed energy generation systems. Altogether, it represents a new concept of reliable and economic electric power delivery to end users. The FRIENDS project is a challenge for future research and development, including new technology and devices for the implementation of such an integrated system. (author)

  12. Diffusion in flexible pipes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brogaard Kristensen, S.

    2000-06-01

    This report describes the work done on modelling and simulation of the complex diffusion of gas through the wall of a flexible pipe. The diffusion and thus the pressure in annulus depends strongly on the diffusion and solubility parameters of the gas-polymer system and on the degree of blocking of the outer surface of the inner liner due to pressure reinforcements. The report evaluates the basis modelling required to describe the complex geometries and flow patterns. Qualitatively results of temperature and concentration profiles are shown in the report. For the program to serve any modelling purpose in 'real life' the results need to be validated and possibly the model needs corrections. Hopefully, a full-scale test of a flexible pipe will provide the required temperatures and pressures in annulus to validate the models. (EHS)

  13. Flexible cryogenic conduit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brindza, P.D.; Wines, R.R.; Takacs, J.J.

    1999-01-01

    A flexible and relatively low cost cryogenic conduit is described. The flexible cryogenic conduit of the present invention comprises a first inner corrugated tube with single braided serving, a second outer corrugated tube with single braided serving concentric with the inner corrugated tube, and arranged outwardly about the periphery of the inner corrugated tube and between the inner and outer corrugated tubes: a superinsulation layer; a one half lap layer of polyester ribbon; a one half lap layer of copper ribbon; a spirally wound refrigeration tube; a second one half lap layer of copper ribbon; a second one half lap layer of polyester ribbon; a second superinsulation layer; a third one half lap layer of polyester ribbon; and a spirally wound stretchable and compressible filament

  14. Diffusion in flexible pipes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brogaard Kristensen, S

    2000-06-01

    This report describes the work done on modelling and simulation of the complex diffusion of gas through the wall of a flexible pipe. The diffusion and thus the pressure in annulus depends strongly on the diffusion and solubility parameters of the gas-polymer system and on the degree of blocking of the outer surface of the inner liner due to pressure reinforcements. The report evaluates the basis modelling required to describe the complex geometries and flow patterns. Qualitatively results of temperature and concentration profiles are shown in the report. For the program to serve any modelling purpose in 'real life' the results need to be validated and possibly the model needs corrections. Hopefully, a full-scale test of a flexible pipe will provide the required temperatures and pressures in annulus to validate the models. (EHS)

  15. Flexible Laser Metal Cutting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villumsen, Sigurd; Jørgensen, Steffen Nordahl; Kristiansen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a new flexible and fast approach to laser cutting called ROBOCUT. Combined with CAD/CAM technology, laser cutting of metal provides the flexibility to perform one-of-a-kind cutting and hereby realises mass production of customised products. Today’s laser cutting techniques...... possess, despite their wide use in industry, limitations regarding speed and geometry. Research trends point towards remote laser cutting techniques which can improve speed and geometrical freedom and hereby the competitiveness of laser cutting compared to fixed-tool-based cutting technology...... such as punching. This paper presents the concepts and preliminary test results of the ROBOCUT laser cutting technology, a technology which potentially can revolutionise laser cutting....

  16. Reliability Characteristics of Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbynek Martinek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the phenomenon of reliability of power plants. It gives an explanation of the terms connected with this topic as their proper understanding is important for understanding the relations and equations which model the possible real situations. The reliability phenomenon is analysed using both the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The results of our analysis are specific equations giving information about the characteristics of the power plants, the mean time of operations and the probability of failure-free operation. Equations solved for the Weibull distribution respect the failures as well as the actual operating hours. Thanks to our results, we are able to create a model of dynamic reliability for prediction of future states. It can be useful for improving the current situation of the unit as well as for creating the optimal plan of maintenance and thus have an impact on the overall economics of the operation of these power plants.

  17. Flexible training under threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Anita; Eaton, Jennifer

    2002-10-01

    As the number of women in medicine and the general demand for a better work-life balance rises, flexible training is an increasingly important mechanism for maintaining the medical workforce. The new pay deal, together with entrenched cultural attitudes, are potential threats. Ways forward include more substantive part-time posts, more part-time opportunities at consultant level, and using positive experiences as a way of tackling attitudes in the less accepting specialties.

  18. Flexible weapons architecture design

    OpenAIRE

    Pyant, William C.

    2015-01-01

    Present day air-delivered weapons are of a closed architecture, with little to no ability to tailor the weapon for the individual engagement. The closed architectures require weaponeers to make the target fit the weapon instead of fitting the individual weapons to a target. The concept of a flexible weapons aims to modularize weapons design using an open architecture shell into which different modules are inserted to achieve the desired target fractional damage while reducing cost and civilia...

  19. Industrial Fuel Flexibility Workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2006-09-01

    On September 28, 2006, in Washington, DC, ITP and Booz Allen Hamilton conducted a fuel flexibility workshop with attendance from various stakeholder groups. Workshop participants included representatives from the petrochemical, refining, food and beverage, steel and metals, pulp and paper, cement and glass manufacturing industries; as well as representatives from industrial boiler manufacturers, technology providers, energy and waste service providers, the federal government and national laboratories, and developers and financiers.

  20. Flexible Land Administration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2014-01-01

    Security of tenure is widely considered to be the missing piece of the puzzle when it comes to eradication of poverty. And, as explained in the previous issue of Geoinformatics, the European Union is now placing land rights at the heart of EU development policy. This article presents a way forwar...... in terms of building flexible and "fit-for-purpose" land administration systems in developing countries. This will ensure security of tenure for all and sustainable management of the use of land....

  1. Effect of loading pattern on longitudinal bowing in flexible roll forming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jae Hyun; Woo, Young Yun; Hwang, Tae Woo; Han, Sang Wook; Moon, Young Hoon [School of Mechanical Engineering, Engineering Research Center for Net Shape and Die Manufacturing, Pusan National University,Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    The flexible roll forming process can be used to fabricate products with a variable cross-section profile in the longitudinal direction. Transversal nonuniformity of the longitudinal strain is one of the fundamental characteristics of blank deformation in flexible roll forming. Longitudinal bowing is a shape defect caused by transversal nonuniformity of the longitudinal strain. In this study, loading patterns in flexible roll forming are investigated in order to reduce the longitudinal bowing in a roll-formed blank. To analyze the effects of loading patterns on longitudinal bowing, two different forming schedules are implemented. In schedule 1, loading patterns with different bending angle increments are designed under fixed initial and final bending angles. In schedule 2, loading patterns with different initial bending angles under the fixed final bending angle are designed. Our results show that the bowing heights are significantly affected by the loading patterns. The bowing susceptibilities vary with blank shape such as trapezoid, convex, and concave shapes. In addition to the peak longitudinal strain at the respective roll stands, the cumulative longitudinal strain from the initial to final stands is shown to be a reliable index in predicting the tendency of longitudinal bowing.

  2. Reliability data banks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.

    1991-01-01

    Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)

  3. Suncor maintenance and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, S. [Suncor Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Fleet maintenance and reliability at Suncor Energy was discussed in this presentation, with reference to Suncor Energy's primary and support equipment fleets. This paper also discussed Suncor Energy's maintenance and reliability standard involving people, processes and technology. An organizational maturity chart that graphed organizational learning against organizational performance was illustrated. The presentation also reviewed the maintenance and reliability framework; maintenance reliability model; the process overview of the maintenance and reliability standard; a process flow chart of maintenance strategies and programs; and an asset reliability improvement process flow chart. An example of an improvement initiative was included, with reference to a shovel reliability review; a dipper trip reliability investigation; bucket related failures by type and frequency; root cause analysis of the reliability process; and additional actions taken. Last, the presentation provided a graph of the results of the improvement initiative and presented the key lessons learned. tabs., figs.

  4. PTFE films with improved flexibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muraca, R. F.; Koch, A. A.

    1972-01-01

    Development and application of flexible polytetrafluroethylene films for expulsion bladders in spacecraft propellant tanks are described. Flexibility of material is obtained by reducing crystallinity through annealing and quenching in water. Physical and mechanical properties of material are presented.

  5. Ternary networks reliability and Monte Carlo

    CERN Document Server

    Gertsbakh, Ilya; Vaisman, Radislav

    2014-01-01

    Ternary means “based on three”. This book deals with reliability investigations of  networks whose components subject to failures can be in three states –up, down and middle (mid), contrary to traditionally considered networks  having only binary (up/down) components. Extending binary case to ternary allows to consider more realistic and flexible models for communication, flow and supply networks.

  6. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  7. Flexible automated manufacturing for SMEs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grube Hansen, David; Bilberg, Arne; Madsen, Erik Skov

    2017-01-01

    SMEs are in general highly flexible and agile in order to accommodate the customer demands in the paradigm of High Mix-Low Volume manufacturing. The flexibility and agility have mainly been enabled by manual labor, but as we are entering the technology and data driven fourth industrial revolution......, where augmented operators and machines work in cooperation in a highly flexible and productive manufacturing system both an opportunity and a need has raised for developing highly flexible and efficient automation....

  8. The Accelerator Reliability Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R

    2014-01-01

    A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.

  9. Designing structural supply chain flexibility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulinski, Ksawery Jan

    2012-01-01

    In a continuously changing business environment the role of supply chain flexibility is constantly increasing. A flexible supply chain can ensure survival in quickly changing market conditions as well as enable sustainable growth. This thesis explores the topic of supply chain flexibility with focus

  10. Global Analysis of Flexible Risers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banke, Lars

    1996-01-01

    Flexible pipes are often a technically attractive alternative to the traditional steel pipe. Often commercial utilisation of oil/gas fields depends on the use of flexible pipes. An example is when floating production vessels are used, where the flexible pipe follows the wave induced motions...

  11. The fair value of operational reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Morel, Benoit

    2005-12-15

    Information about the uncertainties that surround the operation of the power system can be used to enlighten the debate of how much reliability should be pursued and how resources should be allocated to pursue it. In this paper we present a method to determine the value of having flexible generators to react to load fluctuations. This value can be seen as the value of hedging against the uncertainty on the load due to the volatility of the demand and the possibility of congestion. Because having this flexibility can be related to a financial option, we will use an extension of options theory and in particular the risk-neutral valuation method, to find a risk neutral quantification of its value. We illustrate our point valuing the flexibility that leads to ''operational reliability'' in the PJM market. Our formula for that value is what we call ''the fair value'' of operational reliability. (Author)

  12. Flexible NAND-Like Organic Ferroelectric Memory Array

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kam, B.; Ke, T.H.; Chasin, A.; Tyagi, M.; Cristoferi, C.; Tempelaars, K.; Breemen, A.J.J.M. van; Myny, K.; Schols, S.; Genoe, J.; Gelinck, G.H.; Heremans, P.

    2014-01-01

    We present a memory array of organic ferroelectric field-effect transistors (OFeFETs) on flexible substrates. The OFeFETs are connected serially, similar to the NAND architecture of flash memory, which offers the highest memory density of transistor memories. We demonstrate a reliable addressing

  13. Child Temperamental Flexibility Moderates the Relation between Positive Parenting and Adolescent Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinowitz, Jill A.; Drabick, Deborah A.G.; Reynolds, Maureen D.; Clark, Duncan B.; Olino, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Temperamental flexibility and lower positive parenting are associated with internalizing and externalizing problems; however, youth varying in flexibility may be differentially affected by positive parenting in the prediction of symptoms. We examined whether children's flexibility moderated prospective relations between maternal and paternal positive parenting and youth internalizing and externalizing symptoms during adolescence. Participants (N =775, 71% male) and their caregivers completed measures when youth were 10-12 and 12-14 years old. Father positive parenting interacted with child flexibility to predict father-reported internalizing and externalizing problems. Consistent with the diathesis-stress model, children lower in flexibility experienced greater symptoms than children higher in flexibility in lower positive parenting contexts. Among children lower in flexibility, lower paternal positive parenting was associated with greater internalizing and externalizing symptoms compared to higher paternal positive parenting. However, among youth higher in flexibility, symptom levels were similar regardless of whether youth experienced lower or higher paternal positive parenting. PMID:26834305

  14. Human Reliability Program Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bodin, Michael

    2012-09-25

    This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.

  15. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  16. Reliability of software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopetz, H.

    1980-01-01

    Common factors and differences in the reliability of hardware and software; reliability increase by means of methods of software redundancy. Maintenance of software for long term operating behavior. (HP) [de

  17. Stochastic Dynamics Underlying Cognitive Stability and Flexibility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Ueltzhöffer

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive stability and flexibility are core functions in the successful pursuit of behavioral goals. While there is evidence for a common frontoparietal network underlying both functions and for a key role of dopamine in the modulation of flexible versus stable behavior, the exact neurocomputational mechanisms underlying those executive functions and their adaptation to environmental demands are still unclear. In this work we study the neurocomputational mechanisms underlying cue based task switching (flexibility and distractor inhibition (stability in a paradigm specifically designed to probe both functions. We develop a physiologically plausible, explicit model of neural networks that maintain the currently active task rule in working memory and implement the decision process. We simplify the four-choice decision network to a nonlinear drift-diffusion process that we canonically derive from a generic winner-take-all network model. By fitting our model to the behavioral data of individual subjects, we can reproduce their full behavior in terms of decisions and reaction time distributions in baseline as well as distractor inhibition and switch conditions. Furthermore, we predict the individual hemodynamic response timecourse of the rule-representing network and localize it to a frontoparietal network including the inferior frontal junction area and the intraparietal sulcus, using functional magnetic resonance imaging. This refines the understanding of task-switch-related frontoparietal brain activity as reflecting attractor-like working memory representations of task rules. Finally, we estimate the subject-specific stability of the rule-representing attractor states in terms of the minimal action associated with a transition between different rule states in the phase-space of the fitted models. This stability measure correlates with switching-specific thalamocorticostriatal activation, i.e., with a system associated with flexible working memory

  18. Reliable Design Versus Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth A.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation focuses on reliability and trust for the users portion of the FPGA design flow. It is assumed that the manufacturer prior to hand-off to the user tests FPGA internal components. The objective is to present the challenges of creating reliable and trusted designs. The following will be addressed: What makes a design vulnerable to functional flaws (reliability) or attackers (trust)? What are the challenges for verifying a reliable design versus a trusted design?

  19. Principles of Bridge Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, Andrzej S.

    The paper gives a brief introduction to the basic principles of structural reliability theory and its application to bridge engineering. Fundamental concepts like failure probability and reliability index are introduced. Ultimate as well as serviceability limit states for bridges are formulated......, and as an example the reliability profile and a sensitivity analyses for a corroded reinforced concrete bridge is shown....

  20. Reliability in engineering '87

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuma, M.

    1987-01-01

    The participants heard 51 papers dealing with the reliability of engineering products. Two of the papers were incorporated in INIS, namely ''Reliability comparison of two designs of low pressure regeneration of the 1000 MW unit at the Temelin nuclear power plant'' and ''Use of probability analysis of reliability in designing nuclear power facilities.''(J.B.)

  1. Rosetta Ligand docking with flexible XML protocols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmon, Gordon; Meiler, Jens

    2012-01-01

    RosettaLigand is premiere software for predicting how a protein and a small molecule interact. Benchmark studies demonstrate that 70% of the top scoring RosettaLigand predicted interfaces are within 2Å RMSD from the crystal structure [1]. The latest release of Rosetta ligand software includes many new features, such as (1) docking of multiple ligands simultaneously, (2) representing ligands as fragments for greater flexibility, (3) redesign of the interface during docking, and (4) an XML script based interface that gives the user full control of the ligand docking protocol.

  2. Flexible Query Answering Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flexible Query Answering Systems, FQAS 2013, held in Granada, Spain, in September 2013. The 59 full papers included in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers...... are organized in a general session train and a parallel special session track. The general session train covers the following topics: querying-answering systems; semantic technology; patterns and classification; personalization and recommender systems; searching and ranking; and Web and human...

  3. Reliability analysis of component of affination centrifugal 1 machine by using reliability engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, N.; Ginting, E.; Darnello, T.

    2017-12-01

    Problems that appear in a company that produces refined sugar, the production floor has not reached the level of critical machine availability because it often suffered damage (breakdown). This results in a sudden loss of production time and production opportunities. This problem can be solved by Reliability Engineering method where the statistical approach to historical damage data is performed to see the pattern of the distribution. The method can provide a value of reliability, rate of damage, and availability level, of an machine during the maintenance time interval schedule. The result of distribution test to time inter-damage data (MTTF) flexible hose component is lognormal distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. While from distribution test to mean time of improvement (MTTR) flexible hose component is exponential distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. The actual results of the flexible hose component on the replacement schedule per 720 hours obtained reliability of 0.2451 and availability 0.9960. While on the critical components of teflon cone lifthing actual on the replacement schedule per 1944 hours obtained reliability of 0.4083 and availability 0.9927.

  4. Very Thin Flexible Coupled Inductors for PV Module Integrated GaN Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acanski, Milos; Ouyang, Ziwei; Popovic-Gerber, Jelena

    2012-01-01

    converter integrated directly into a low cost flexible PV module. Additional problems arise in this case, specifically in magnetics design, due to the requirements for very low profile flexible construction and limited thermal headroom. Overcoming these limitations presents a challenge, but can lead...... to a cost effective, reliable solution for PV systems with improved integration level and power density....

  5. Reliability and validity in a nutshell.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannigan, Katrina; Watson, Roger

    2009-12-01

    To explore and explain the different concepts of reliability and validity as they are related to measurement instruments in social science and health care. There are different concepts contained in the terms reliability and validity and these are often explained poorly and there is often confusion between them. To develop some clarity about reliability and validity a conceptual framework was built based on the existing literature. The concepts of reliability, validity and utility are explored and explained. Reliability contains the concepts of internal consistency and stability and equivalence. Validity contains the concepts of content, face, criterion, concurrent, predictive, construct, convergent (and divergent), factorial and discriminant. In addition, for clinical practice and research, it is essential to establish the utility of a measurement instrument. To use measurement instruments appropriately in clinical practice, the extent to which they are reliable, valid and usable must be established.

  6. Cloud flexibility using DIRAC interware

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albor, Víctor Fernandez; Miguelez, Marcos Seco; Silva, Juan Jose Saborido; Pena, Tomas Fernandez; Muñoz, Victor Mendez; Diaz, Ricardo Graciani

    2014-01-01

    Communities of different locations are running their computing jobs on dedicated infrastructures without the need to worry about software, hardware or even the site where their programs are going to be executed. Nevertheless, this usually implies that they are restricted to use certain types or versions of an Operating System because either their software needs an definite version of a system library or a specific platform is required by the collaboration to which they belong. On this scenario, if a data center wants to service software to incompatible communities, it has to split its physical resources among those communities. This splitting will inevitably lead to an underuse of resources because the data centers are bound to have periods where one or more of its subclusters are idle. It is, in this situation, where Cloud Computing provides the flexibility and reduction in computational cost that data centers are searching for. This paper describes a set of realistic tests that we ran on one of such implementations. The test comprise software from three different HEP communities (Auger, LHCb and QCD phenomelogists) and the Parsec Benchmark Suite running on one or more of three Linux flavors (SL5, Ubuntu 10.04 and Fedora 13). The implemented infrastructure has, at the cloud level, CloudStack that manages the virtual machines (VM) and the hosts on which they run, and, at the user level, the DIRAC framework along with a VM extension that will submit, monitorize and keep track of the user jobs and also requests CloudStack to start or stop the necessary VM's. In this infrastructure, the community software is distributed via the CernVM-FS, which has been proven to be a reliable and scalable software distribution system. With the resulting infrastructure, users are allowed to send their jobs transparently to the Data Center. The main purpose of this system is the creation of flexible cluster, multiplatform with an scalable method for software distribution for

  7. Cloud flexibility using DIRAC interware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez Albor, Víctor; Seco Miguelez, Marcos; Fernandez Pena, Tomas; Mendez Muñoz, Victor; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo

    2014-06-01

    Communities of different locations are running their computing jobs on dedicated infrastructures without the need to worry about software, hardware or even the site where their programs are going to be executed. Nevertheless, this usually implies that they are restricted to use certain types or versions of an Operating System because either their software needs an definite version of a system library or a specific platform is required by the collaboration to which they belong. On this scenario, if a data center wants to service software to incompatible communities, it has to split its physical resources among those communities. This splitting will inevitably lead to an underuse of resources because the data centers are bound to have periods where one or more of its subclusters are idle. It is, in this situation, where Cloud Computing provides the flexibility and reduction in computational cost that data centers are searching for. This paper describes a set of realistic tests that we ran on one of such implementations. The test comprise software from three different HEP communities (Auger, LHCb and QCD phenomelogists) and the Parsec Benchmark Suite running on one or more of three Linux flavors (SL5, Ubuntu 10.04 and Fedora 13). The implemented infrastructure has, at the cloud level, CloudStack that manages the virtual machines (VM) and the hosts on which they run, and, at the user level, the DIRAC framework along with a VM extension that will submit, monitorize and keep track of the user jobs and also requests CloudStack to start or stop the necessary VM's. In this infrastructure, the community software is distributed via the CernVM-FS, which has been proven to be a reliable and scalable software distribution system. With the resulting infrastructure, users are allowed to send their jobs transparently to the Data Center. The main purpose of this system is the creation of flexible cluster, multiplatform with an scalable method for software distribution for several

  8. Reliable computer systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wear, L L; Pinkert, J R

    1993-11-01

    In this article, we looked at some decisions that apply to the design of reliable computer systems. We began with a discussion of several terms such as testability, then described some systems that call for highly reliable hardware and software. The article concluded with a discussion of methods that can be used to achieve higher reliability in computer systems. Reliability and fault tolerance in computers probably will continue to grow in importance. As more and more systems are computerized, people will want assurances about the reliability of these systems, and their ability to work properly even when sub-systems fail.

  9. Human factor reliability program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoblochova, L.

    2017-01-01

    The human factor's reliability program was at Slovenske elektrarne, a.s. (SE) nuclear power plants. introduced as one of the components Initiatives of Excellent Performance in 2011. The initiative's goal was to increase the reliability of both people and facilities, in response to 3 major areas of improvement - Need for improvement of the results, Troubleshooting support, Supporting the achievement of the company's goals. The human agent's reliability program is in practice included: - Tools to prevent human error; - Managerial observation and coaching; - Human factor analysis; -Quick information about the event with a human agent; -Human reliability timeline and performance indicators; - Basic, periodic and extraordinary training in human factor reliability(authors)

  10. Asymmetric Flexible Supercapacitor Stack

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leela Mohana Reddy A

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available AbstractElectrical double layer supercapacitor is very significant in the field of electrical energy storage which can be the solution for the current revolution in the electronic devices like mobile phones, camera flashes which needs flexible and miniaturized energy storage device with all non-aqueous components. The multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs have been synthesized by catalytic chemical vapor deposition technique over hydrogen decrepitated Mischmetal (Mm based AB3alloy hydride. The polymer dispersed MWNTs have been obtained by insitu polymerization and the metal oxide/MWNTs were synthesized by sol-gel method. Morphological characterizations of polymer dispersed MWNTs have been carried out using scanning electron microscopy (SEM, transmission electron microscopy (TEM and HRTEM. An assymetric double supercapacitor stack has been fabricated using polymer/MWNTs and metal oxide/MWNTs coated over flexible carbon fabric as electrodes and nafion®membrane as a solid electrolyte. Electrochemical performance of the supercapacitor stack has been investigated using cyclic voltammetry, galvanostatic charge-discharge, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy.

  11. Equipment Reliability Program in NPP Krsko

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skaler, F.; Djetelic, N.

    2006-01-01

    Operation that is safe, reliable, effective and acceptable to public is the common message in a mission statement of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To fulfill these goals, nuclear industry, among other areas, has to focus on: 1 Human Performance (HU) and 2 Equipment Reliability (EQ). The performance objective of HU is as follows: The behaviors of all personnel result in safe and reliable station operation. While unwanted human behaviors in operations mostly result directly in the event, the behavior flaws either in the area of maintenance or engineering usually cause decreased equipment reliability. Unsatisfied Human performance leads even the best designed power plants into significant operating events, which can be found as well-known examples in nuclear industry. Equipment reliability is today recognized as the key to success. While the human performance at most NPPs has been improving since the start of WANO / INPO / IAEA evaluations, the open energy market has forced the nuclear plants to reduce production costs and operate more reliably and effectively. The balance between these two (opposite) goals has made equipment reliability even more important for safe, reliable and efficient production. Insisting on on-line operation by ignoring some principles of safety could nowadays in a well-developed safety culture and human performance environment exceed the cost of electricity losses. In last decade the leading USA nuclear companies put a lot of effort to improve equipment reliability primarily based on INPO Equipment Reliability Program AP-913 at their NPP stations. The Equipment Reliability Program is the key program not only for safe and reliable operation, but also for the Life Cycle Management and Aging Management on the way to the nuclear power plant life extension. The purpose of Equipment Reliability process is to identify, organize, integrate and coordinate equipment reliability activities (preventive and predictive maintenance, maintenance

  12. Design of semi-rigid type of flexible pavements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pranshoo Solanki

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of the study presented in this paper is to develop design curves for performance prediction of stabilized layers and to compare semi-rigid flexible pavement designs between the empirical AASHTO 1993 and the mechanistic-empirical pavement design methodologies. Specifically, comparisons were made for a range of different sections consisting of cementitious layers stabilized with different types and percentages of additives. It is found that the design thickness is influenced by the type of soil, additive, selection of material property and design method. Cost comparisons of sections stabilized with different percentage and type of additives showed that CKD-stabilization provides economically low cost sections as compared to lime- and CFA-stabilized sections. Knowledge gained from the parametric analysis of different sections using AASHTO 1993 and MEPDG is expected to be useful to pavement designers and others in implementation of the new MEPDG for future pavement design. Keywords: Semi-rigid, Mechanistic, Resilient modulus, Fatigue life, Reliability, Traffic

  13. On flexible and rigid nouns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rijkhoff, Jan

    2010-01-01

    classes. Finally this article wants to claim that the distinction between rigid and flexible noun categories (a) adds a new dimension to current classifications of parts of speech systems, (b) correlates with certain grammatical phenomena (e.g. so-called number discord), and (c) helps to explain the parts......This article argues that in addition to the major flexible lexical categories in Hengeveld’s classification of parts of speech systems (Contentive, Non-Verb, Modifier), there are also flexible word classes within the rigid lexical category Noun (Set Noun, Sort Noun, General Noun). Members...... by the flexible item in the external world. I will then argue that flexible word classes constitute a proper category (i.e. they are not the result of a merger of some rigid word classes) in that members of flexible word categories display the same properties regarding category membership as members of rigid word...

  14. On flexible and rigid nouns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rijkhoff, Jan

    2008-01-01

    Studies in Language 32-3 (2008), 727-752. Special issue: Parts of Speech: Descriptive tools, theoretical constructs Jan Rijkhoff - On flexible and rigid nouns This article argues that in addition to the flexible lexical categories in Hengeveld’s classification of parts-of-speech systems (Contentive......, Non-Verb, Modifier), there are also flexible word classes within the rigid lexical category Noun (Set Noun, Sort Noun, General Noun). Members of flexible word classes are characterized by their vague semantics, which in the case of nouns means that values for the semantic features Shape...... and Homogeneity are either left undetermined or they are specified in such a way that they do not quite match the properties of the kind of entity denoted by the flexible item in the external world. I will then argue that flexible word classes constitute a proper category (i.e. they are not the result of a merger...

  15. Flexible Language Interoperability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekman, Torbjörn; Mechlenborg, Peter; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    2007-01-01

    Virtual machines raise the abstraction level of the execution environment at the cost of restricting the set of supported languages. Moreover, the ability of a language implementation to integrate with other languages hosted on the same virtual machine typically constrains the features...... of the language. In this paper, we present a highly flexible yet efficient approach to hosting multiple programming languages on an object-oriented virtual machine. Our approach is based on extending the interface of each class with language-specific wrapper methods, offering each language a tailored view...... of a given class. This approach can be deployed both on a statically typed virtual machine, such as the JVM, and on a dynamic virtual machine, such as a Smalltalk virtual machine. We have implemented our approach to language interoperability on top of a prototype virtual machine for embedded systems based...

  16. Flexible cultural repertoires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegaard, Marie Rosenkrantz; Zimmermann, Francisca

    2017-01-01

    Despite extensive studies of street culture and the risks of offending and victimization in urban marginalized areas, little is known about the role of cultural repertoires for variation in victimization risks among young men not involved in crime. Based on two ethnographic studies, conducted...... independently of the authors in neighbouring township areas of Cape Town, we offer insights into patterns of victimization among young men not involved in crime who live and attend school in the townships. Young men WHO perform decent cultural repertoires are highly exposed to victimization due to their moral...... rejection of crime-involved youth. Young men who perform flexible cultural repertoires, by incorporating and shifting between gang and decent repertoires, experience low victimization due to their adaptation to crime-involved youth. Findings emphasize the importance of detailed investigations of the way...

  17. Flexible helical yarn swimmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharov, A P; Leshansky, A M; Pismen, L M

    2016-09-01

    We investigate the motion of a flexible Stokesian flagellar swimmer realised as a yarn made of two intertwined elastomer fibres, one active, that can reversibly change its length in response to a local excitation causing transition to the nematic state or swelling, and the other one, a passive isotropic elastomer with identical mechanical properties. A propagating chemical wave may provide an excitation mechanism ensuring a constant length of the excited region. Generally, the swimmer moves along a helical trajectory, and the propagation and rotation velocity are very sensitive to the ratio of the excited region to the pitch of the yarn, as well as to the size of a carried load. External excitation by a moving actuating beam is less effective, unless the direction of the beam is adjusted to rotation of the swimmer.

  18. Flexible weapons architecture design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyant, William C., III

    Present day air-delivered weapons are of a closed architecture, with little to no ability to tailor the weapon for the individual engagement. The closed architectures require weaponeers to make the target fit the weapon instead of fitting the individual weapons to a target. The concept of a flexible weapons aims to modularize weapons design using an open architecture shell into which different modules are inserted to achieve the desired target fractional damage while reducing cost and civilian casualties. This thesis shows that the architecture design factors of damage mechanism, fusing, weapons weight, guidance, and propulsion are significant in enhancing weapon performance objectives, and would benefit from modularization. Additionally, this thesis constructs an algorithm that can be used to design a weapon set for a particular target class based on these modular components.

  19. Conformational flexibility of aspartame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toniolo, Claudio; Temussi, Pierandrea

    2016-05-01

    L-Aspartyl-L-phenylalanine methyl ester, better known as aspartame, is not only one of the most used artificial sweeteners, but also a very interesting molecule with respect to the correlation between molecular structure and taste. The extreme conformational flexibility of this dipeptide posed a huge difficulty when researchers tried to use it as a lead compound to design new sweeteners. In particular, it was difficult to take advantage of its molecular model as a mold to infer the shape of the, then unknown, active site of the sweet taste receptor. Here, we follow the story of the 3D structural aspects of aspartame from early conformational studies to recent docking into homology models of the receptor. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Biopolymers (Pept Sci) 106: 376-384, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Reliability and safety engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

    2016-01-01

    Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...