Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, S.; Lu, H.; Kolarik, W.J.

2001-01-01

This paper presents a technique for predicting system performance reliability in real-time considering multiple failure modes. The technique includes on-line multivariate monitoring and forecasting of selected performance measures and conditional performance reliability estimates. The performance measures across time are treated as a multivariate time series. A state-space approach is used to model the multivariate time series. Recursive forecasting is performed by adopting Kalman filtering. The predicted mean vectors and covariance matrix of performance measures are used for the assessment of system survival/reliability with respect to the conditional performance reliability. The technique and modeling protocol discussed in this paper provide a means to forecast and evaluate the performance of an individual system in a dynamic environment in real-time. The paper also presents an example to demonstrate the technique

Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

1985-08-01

Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

Predictive and tempo-flexible synchronization to a visual metronome in monkeys.

Science.gov (United States)

Takeya, Ryuji; Kameda, Masashi; Patel, Aniruddh D; Tanaka, Masaki

2017-07-21

Predictive and tempo-flexible synchronization to an auditory beat is a fundamental component of human music. To date, only certain vocal learning species show this behaviour spontaneously. Prior research training macaques (vocal non-learners) to tap to an auditory or visual metronome found their movements to be largely reactive, not predictive. Does this reflect the lack of capacity for predictive synchronization in monkeys, or lack of motivation to exhibit this behaviour? To discriminate these possibilities, we trained monkeys to make synchronized eye movements to a visual metronome. We found that monkeys could generate predictive saccades synchronized to periodic visual stimuli when an immediate reward was given for every predictive movement. This behaviour generalized to novel tempi, and the monkeys could maintain the tempo internally. Furthermore, monkeys could flexibly switch from predictive to reactive saccades when a reward was given for each reactive response. In contrast, when humans were asked to make a sequence of reactive saccades to a visual metronome, they often unintentionally generated predictive movements. These results suggest that even vocal non-learners may have the capacity for predictive and tempo-flexible synchronization to a beat, but that only certain vocal learning species are intrinsically motivated to do it.

Reliability tasks from prediction to field use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guyot, Christian.

1975-01-01

This tutorial paper is part of a series intended to sensitive on reliability prolems. Reliability probabilistic concept, is an important parameter of availability. Reliability prediction is an estimation process for evaluating design progress. It is only by the application of a reliability program that reliability objectives can be attained through the different stages of work: conception, fabrication, field use. The user is mainly interested in operational reliability. Indication are given on the support and the treatment of data in the case of electronic equipment at C.E.A. Reliability engineering requires a special state of mind which must be formed and developed in a company in the same way as it may be done for example for safety [fr

Conceptual Software Reliability Prediction Models for Nuclear Power Plant Safety Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, G.; Lawrence, D.; Yu, H.

2000-01-01

The objective of this project is to develop a method to predict the potential reliability of software to be used in a digital system instrumentation and control system. The reliability prediction is to make use of existing measures of software reliability such as those described in IEEE Std 982 and 982.2. This prediction must be of sufficient accuracy to provide a value for uncertainty that could be used in a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For the purposes of the project, reliability was defined to be the probability that the digital system will successfully perform its intended safety function (for the distribution of conditions under which it is expected to respond) upon demand with no unintended functions that might affect system safety. The ultimate objective is to use the identified measures to develop a method for predicting the potential quantitative reliability of a digital system. The reliability prediction models proposed in this report are conceptual in nature. That is, possible prediction techniques are proposed and trial models are built, but in order to become a useful tool for predicting reliability, the models must be tested, modified according to the results, and validated. Using methods outlined by this project, models could be constructed to develop reliability estimates for elements of software systems. This would require careful review and refinement of the models, development of model parameters from actual experience data or expert elicitation, and careful validation. By combining these reliability estimates (generated from the validated models for the constituent parts) in structural software models, the reliability of the software system could then be predicted. Modeling digital system reliability will also require that methods be developed for combining reliability estimates for hardware and software. System structural models must also be developed in order to predict system reliability based upon the reliability

Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

Identifying and describing feelings and psychological flexibility predict mental health in men with HIV.

Science.gov (United States)

Landstra, Jodie M B; Ciarrochi, Joseph; Deane, Frank P; Hillman, Richard J

2013-11-01

Difficulty identifying and describing feelings (DIDF) and psychological flexibility (PF) predict poor emotional adjustment. To examine the relationship between DIDF and PF and whether DIDF and low PF would put men undergoing cancer screening at risk for poor adjustment. Longitudinal self-report survey. Two hundred and one HIV-infected men who have sex with men participated in anal cancer screening at two time points over 14 weeks. Psychological flexibility was assessed by the Acceptance and Action Questionnaire II and DIDF by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20. We also measured depression, anxiety, stress (DASS) and health-related quality of life (QOL; SF-12). Both DIDF and PF were reliable predictors of mental health. When levels of baseline mental health were controlled, greater DIDF predicted increases in Time 2 depression, anxiety and stress and decreases in mental and physical QOL. The link between PF and mental health was entirely mediated by DIDF. Being chronically low in PF could lead to greater DIDF and thereby worse mental health. Having more PF promotes the ability to identify and differentiate the nuances of pleasant and unpleasant emotions, which enhances an individual's mental health. Intentionally enhancing men's ability to identify and describe feelings or PF may assist them to better manage a range of difficult life experiences such as health screenings and other potentially threatening information. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Multi-state time-varying reliability evaluation of smart grid with flexible demand resources utilizing Lz transform

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Heping; Jin, Wende; Ding, Yi; Song, Yonghua; Yu, Dezhao

2017-01-01

With the expanding proportion of renewable energy generation and development of smart grid technologies, flexible demand resources (FDRs) have been utilized as an approach to accommodating renewable energies. However, multiple uncertainties of FDRs may influence reliable and secure operation of smart grid. Multi-state reliability models for a single FDR and aggregating FDRs have been proposed in this paper with regard to responsive abilities for FDRs and random failures for both FDR devices and information system. The proposed reliability evaluation technique is based on Lz transform method which can formulate time-varying reliability indices. A modified IEEE-RTS has been utilized as an illustration of the proposed technique.

Reliability prediction system based on the failure rate model for electronic components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Woo; Lee, Hwa Ki

2008-01-01

Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. Among the reliability prediction methods are the statistical analysis based method, the similarity analysis method based on an external failure rate database, and the method based on the physics-of-failure model. In this study, we developed a system by which the reliability of electronic components can be predicted by creating a system for the statistical analysis method of predicting reliability most easily. The failure rate models that were applied are MILHDBK- 217F N2, PRISM, and Telcordia (Bellcore), and these were compared with the general purpose system in order to validate the effectiveness of the developed system. Being able to predict the reliability of electronic components from the stage of design, the system that we have developed is expected to contribute to enhancing the reliability of electronic components

Prediction of Software Reliability using Bio Inspired Soft Computing Techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Diwaker, Chander; Tomar, Pradeep; Poonia, Ramesh C; Singh, Vijander

2018-04-10

A lot of models have been made for predicting software reliability. The reliability models are restricted to using particular types of methodologies and restricted number of parameters. There are a number of techniques and methodologies that may be used for reliability prediction. There is need to focus on parameters consideration while estimating reliability. The reliability of a system may increase or decreases depending on the selection of different parameters used. Thus there is need to identify factors that heavily affecting the reliability of the system. In present days, reusability is mostly used in the various area of research. Reusability is the basis of Component-Based System (CBS). The cost, time and human skill can be saved using Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) concepts. CBSE metrics may be used to assess those techniques which are more suitable for estimating system reliability. Soft computing is used for small as well as large-scale problems where it is difficult to find accurate results due to uncertainty or randomness. Several possibilities are available to apply soft computing techniques in medicine related problems. Clinical science of medicine using fuzzy-logic, neural network methodology significantly while basic science of medicine using neural-networks-genetic algorithm most frequently and preferably. There is unavoidable interest shown by medical scientists to use the various soft computing methodologies in genetics, physiology, radiology, cardiology and neurology discipline. CBSE boost users to reuse the past and existing software for making new products to provide quality with a saving of time, memory space, and money. This paper focused on assessment of commonly used soft computing technique like Genetic Algorithm (GA), Neural-Network (NN), Fuzzy Logic, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). This paper presents working of soft computing

Reliability prediction of engineering systems with competing failure modes due to component degradation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Young Kap

2011-01-01

Reliability of an engineering system depends on two reliability metrics: the mechanical reliability, considering component failures, that a functional system topology is maintained and the performance reliability of adequate system performance in each functional configuration. Component degradation explains not only the component aging processes leading to failure in function, but also system performance change over time. Multiple competing failure modes for systems with degrading components in terms of system functionality and system performance are considered in this paper with the assumption that system functionality is not independent of system performance. To reduce errors in system reliability prediction, this paper tries to extend system performance reliability prediction methods in open literature through combining system mechanical reliability from component reliabilities and system performance reliability. The extended reliability prediction method provides a useful way to compare designs as well as to determine effective maintenance policy for efficient reliability growth. Application of the method to an electro-mechanical system, as an illustrative example, is explained in detail, and the prediction results are discussed. Both mechanical reliability and performance reliability are compared to total system reliability in terms of reliability prediction errors

Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

1978-01-01

A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

Conformal prediction for reliable machine learning theory, adaptations and applications

CERN Document Server

Balasubramanian, Vineeth; Vovk, Vladimir

2014-01-01

The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detecti

Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

2009-01-01

Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nielsen Morten

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score. Results An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. Conclusion The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0

A generic Approach for Reliability Predictions considering non-uniformly Deterioration Behaviour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krause, Jakob; Kabitzsch, Klaus

2012-01-01

Predictive maintenance offers the possibility to prognosticate the remaining time until a maintenance action of a machine has to be scheduled. Unfortunately, current predictive maintenance solutions are only suitable for very specific use cases like reliability predictions based on vibration monitoring. Furthermore, they do not consider the fact that machines may deteriorate non-uniformly, depending on external influences (e.g., the work piece material in a milling machine or the changing fruit acid concentration in a bottling plant). In this paper two concepts for a generic predictive maintenance solution which also considers non-uniformly aging behaviour are introduced. The first concept is based on system models representing the health state of a technical system. As these models are usually statically (viz. without a timely dimension) their coefficients are determined periodically and the resulting time series is used as aging indicator. The second concept focuses on external influences (contexts) which change the behaviour of the previous mentioned aging indicators in order to increase the accuracy of reliability predictions. Therefore, context-depended time series models are determined and used to predict machine reliability. Both concepts were evaluated on data of an air ventilation system. Thereby, it could be shown that they are suitable to determine aging indicators in a generic way and to incorporate external influences in the reliability prediction. Through this, the quality of reliability predictions can be significantly increased. In reality this leads to a more accurate scheduling of maintenance actions. Furthermore, the generic character of the solutions makes the concepts suitable for a wide range of aging processes.

Improvement of mechanical reliability by patterned silver/Indium-Tin-Oxide structure for flexible electronic devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baek, Kyunghyun; Jang, Kyungsoo; Lee, Youn-Jung; Ryu, Kyungyul; Choi, Woojin; Kim, Doyoung; Yi, Junsin

2013-01-01

We report the effect of silver (Ag)-buffer layer Indium-Tin-Oxide (ITO) film on a polyethylene terephthalate substrate on the electrical, optical and reliable properties for transparent–flexible displays. The electrical and optical characteristics of an ITO-only film and an Ag-layer-inserted ITO film are measured and compared to assess the applicability of the triple layered structure in flexible displays. The sheet resistance, the resistivity and the light transmittance of the ITO-only film were 400 Ω/sq, 1.33 × 10 −3 Ω-cm and 99.2%, while those of the ITO film inserted with a 10 nm thick Ag layer were 165 Ω/sq, 4.78 × 10 −4 Ω-cm and about 97%, respectively. To evaluate the mechanical reliability of the different ITO films, bending tests were carried out. After the dynamic bending test of 900 cycles, the sheet resistance of the ITO film inserted with the Ag layer changed from 154 Ω/sq to 475 Ω/sq, about a 3-time increase but that of the ITO-only film changed from 400 Ω/sq to 61,986 Ω/sq, about 150-time increase. When the radius is changed from 25 mm to 20 mm in the static bending test, the sheet resistance of the ITO-only film changed from 400 to 678.3 linearly whereas that of the Ag-layer inserted ITO film changed a little from 154.4 to 154.9. These results show that Ag-layer inserted ITO film had better mechanical characteristics than the ITO-only film. - Highlights: ► Transparent flexible electrode fabricated on glass substrate. ► Electrode fabricated using vertically-patterned design on glass substrate. ► Optimization of the vertical patterns ► Application of the vertically-patterned electrode in transparent–flexible electronics

Flexible, Secure, and Reliable Data Sharing Service Based on Collaboration in Multicloud Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Wei

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the abundant storage resources and high reliability data service of cloud computing, more individuals and enterprises are motivated to outsource their data to public cloud platform and enable legal data users to search and download what they need in the outsourced dataset. However, in “Paid Data Sharing” model, some valuable data should be encrypted before outsourcing for protecting owner’s economic benefits, which is an obstacle for flexible application. Specifically, if the owner does not know who (user will download which data files in advance and even does not know the attributes of user, he/she has to either remain online all the time or import a trusted third party (TTP to distribute the file decryption key to data user. Obviously, making the owner always remain online is too inflexible, and wholly depending on the security of TTP is a potential risk. In this paper, we propose a flexible, secure, and reliable data sharing scheme based on collaboration in multicloud environment. For securely and instantly providing data sharing service even if the owner is offline and without TTP, we distribute all encrypted split data/key blocks together to multiple cloud service providers (CSPs, respectively. An elaborate cryptographic protocol we designed helps the owner verify the correctness of data exchange bills, which is directly related to the owner’s economic benefits. Besides, in order to support reliable data service, the erasure-correcting code technic is exploited for tolerating multiple failures among CSPs, and we offer a secure keyword search mechanism that makes the system more close to reality. Extensive security analyses and experiments on real-world data show that our scheme is secure and efficient.

Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

1995-01-01

For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this study to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results are close to the actual data

Prediction of flexible/rigid regions from protein sequences using k-spaced amino acid pairs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruan Jishou

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditionally, it is believed that the native structure of a protein corresponds to a global minimum of its free energy. However, with the growing number of known tertiary (3D protein structures, researchers have discovered that some proteins can alter their structures in response to a change in their surroundings or with the help of other proteins or ligands. Such structural shifts play a crucial role with respect to the protein function. To this end, we propose a machine learning method for the prediction of the flexible/rigid regions of proteins (referred to as FlexRP; the method is based on a novel sequence representation and feature selection. Knowledge of the flexible/rigid regions may provide insights into the protein folding process and the 3D structure prediction. Results The flexible/rigid regions were defined based on a dataset, which includes protein sequences that have multiple experimental structures, and which was previously used to study the structural conservation of proteins. Sequences drawn from this dataset were represented based on feature sets that were proposed in prior research, such as PSI-BLAST profiles, composition vector and binary sequence encoding, and a newly proposed representation based on frequencies of k-spaced amino acid pairs. These representations were processed by feature selection to reduce the dimensionality. Several machine learning methods for the prediction of flexible/rigid regions and two recently proposed methods for the prediction of conformational changes and unstructured regions were compared with the proposed method. The FlexRP method, which applies Logistic Regression and collocation-based representation with 95 features, obtained 79.5% accuracy. The two runner-up methods, which apply the same sequence representation and Support Vector Machines (SVM and Naïve Bayes classifiers, obtained 79.2% and 78.4% accuracy, respectively. The remaining considered methods are

Diffusion tensor imaging fiber tracking with reliable tracking orientation and flexible step size☆

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Xufeng; Wang, Manning; Chen, Xinrong; Nie, Shengdong; Li, Zhexu; Xu, Xiaoping; Zhang, Xuelong; Song, Zhijian

2013-01-01

We propose a method of reliable tracking orientation and flexible step size fiber tracking. A new directional strategy was defined to select one optimal tracking orientation from each directional set, which was based on the single-tensor model and the two-tensor model. The directional set of planar voxels contained three tracking directions: two from the two-tensor model and one from the single-tensor model. The directional set of linear voxels contained only one principal vector. In addition, a flexible step size, rather than fixable step sizes, was implemented to improve the accuracy of fiber tracking. We used two sets of human data to assess the performance of our method; one was from a healthy volunteer and the other from a patient with low-grade glioma. Results verified that our method was superior to the single-tensor Fiber Assignment by Continuous Tracking and the two-tensor eXtended Streamline Tractography for showing detailed images of fiber bundles. PMID:25206444

Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tee, Kong Fah; Khan, Lutfor Rahman; Li, Hongshuang

2014-01-01

This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction

Design for Reliability of Power Electronic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Huai; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

2012-01-01

Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible processing of electric power in the application of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, adjustable-speed drives, etc. More and more efforts are devoted to better power electronic systems in terms of reliability to ensure high......). A collection of methodologies based on Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile analysis are presented in this paper to perform reliability-oriented design of power electronic systems. The corresponding design procedures and reliability prediction models are provided. Further on, a case study...... on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical components IGBTs. Different aspects of improving the reliability of the power converter are mapped. Finally, the challenges and opportunities to achieve more reliable power electronic systems are addressed....

Reliable prediction and determination of Norwegian lamb carcass composition and value

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kongsro, Jørgen

2008-01-01

The main objective of this work was to study prediction and determination of Norwegian lamb carcass composition with different techniques spanning from subjective appraisal to computer-intensive methods. There is an increasing demand, both from farmers and processors of meats, for a more objective and reliable system for prediction of muscle (lean meat), fat, bone and value of a lamb carcass. When introducing new technologies for determination of lamb carcass composition, the reference method used for calibration must be precise and reliable. The precision and reliability of the current dissection reference for lamb carcass classification and grading has never been quantified. A poor reference method will not benefit even the most optimal system for prediction and determination of lamb carcasses. To help achieve reliable systems, the uncertainty or errors in the reference method and measuring systems needs to be quantified. Using proper calibration methods for the measuring systems, the uncertainty and modeling power can be determined for lamb carcasses. The results of the work presented in this thesis show that the current classification system using subjective appraisal (EUROP) is reliable; however the accuracy with respect to carcass composition, especially for lean meat or muscle and carcass value, is poor. The reference method used for determining lamb carcass composition with respect to lamb carcass classification and grading is precise and reliable for carcass composition. For the composition and yield of sub-primal cuts, the reliability varied, and was especially poor for the breast cut. Further attention is needed for jointing and cutting of sub-primals to achieve even higher precision and reliability of the reference method. As an alternative to butcher or manual dissection, Computer Tomography (CT) showed promising results with respect to prediction of lamb carcass composition. This method is nicknamed “virtual dissection”. By utilizing the

Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M.

2008-01-01

Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curve (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions

A method of predicting the reliability of CDM coil insulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kytasty, A.; Ogle, C.; Arrendale, H.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a method of predicting the reliability of the Collider Dipole Magnet (CDM) coil insulation design. The method proposes a probabilistic treatment of electrical test data, stress analysis, material properties variability and loading uncertainties to give the reliability estimate. The approach taken to predict reliability of design related failure modes of the CDM is to form analytical models of the various possible failure modes and their related mechanisms or causes, and then statistically assess the contributions of the various contributing variables. The probability of the failure mode occurring is interpreted as the number of times one would expect certain extreme situations to combine and randomly occur. One of the more complex failure modes of the CDM will be used to illustrate this methodology

Performance reliability prediction for thermal aging based on kalman filtering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren Shuhong; Wen Zhenhua; Xue Fei; Zhao Wensheng

2015-01-01

The performance reliability of the nuclear power plant main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging was studied by the performance degradation theory. Firstly, through the data obtained from the accelerated thermal aging experiments, the degradation process of the impact strength and fracture toughness of austenitic stainless steel material of the main pipeline was analyzed. The time-varying performance degradation model based on the state space method was built, and the performance trends were predicted by using Kalman filtering. Then, the multi-parameter and real-time performance reliability prediction model for the main pipeline thermal aging was developed by considering the correlation between the impact properties and fracture toughness, and by using the stochastic process theory. Thus, the thermal aging performance reliability and reliability life of the main pipeline with multi-parameter were obtained, which provides the scientific basis for the optimization management of the aging maintenance decision making for nuclear power plant main pipelines. (authors)

Adaptive Encoding of Outcome Prediction by Prefrontal Cortex Ensembles Supports Behavioral Flexibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Del Arco, Alberto; Park, Junchol; Wood, Jesse; Kim, Yunbok; Moghaddam, Bita

2017-08-30

The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is thought to play a critical role in behavioral flexibility by monitoring action-outcome contingencies. How PFC ensembles represent shifts in behavior in response to changes in these contingencies remains unclear. We recorded single-unit activity and local field potentials in the dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) of male rats during a set-shifting task that required them to update their behavior, among competing options, in response to changes in action-outcome contingencies. As behavior was updated, a subset of PFC ensembles encoded the current trial outcome before the outcome was presented. This novel outcome-prediction encoding was absent in a control task, in which actions were rewarded pseudorandomly, indicating that PFC neurons are not merely providing an expectancy signal. In both control and set-shifting tasks, dmPFC neurons displayed postoutcome discrimination activity, indicating that these neurons also monitor whether a behavior is successful in generating rewards. Gamma-power oscillatory activity increased before the outcome in both tasks but did not differentiate between expected outcomes, suggesting that this measure is not related to set-shifting behavior but reflects expectation of an outcome after action execution. These results demonstrate that PFC neurons support flexible rule-based action selection by predicting outcomes that follow a particular action. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Tracking action-outcome contingencies and modifying behavior when those contingencies change is critical to behavioral flexibility. We find that ensembles of dorsomedial prefrontal cortex neurons differentiate between expected outcomes when action-outcome contingencies change. This predictive mode of signaling may be used to promote a new response strategy at the service of behavioral flexibility. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378363-11$15.00/0.

System reliability prediction using data from non-identical environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergman, B.; Ringi, M.

1997-01-01

Since information changes one's mind and probability assessments reflect one's degree of beliefs, a reliability prediction model should enclose all relevant information. Almost always ignored in existing reliability models is the dependence on component life lengths, induced by a common but unknown environment. Furthermore, existing models seldom permit learning from components' performance in similar systems, under the knowledge of non-identical operating environments. In an earlier paper by the present authors the first type of aspects were taken into account and in this paper that model is generalised so that failure data generated from several similar systems in non-identical environments may be used for the prediction of any similar system in its specific environment

Increasing work-time influence: consequences for flexibility, variability, regularity and predictability.

Science.gov (United States)

Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Garde, Anne Helene; Aust, Birgit; Diderichsen, Finn

2012-01-01

This quasi-experimental study investigated how an intervention aiming at increasing eldercare workers' influence on their working hours affected the flexibility, variability, regularity and predictability of the working hours. We used baseline (n = 296) and follow-up (n = 274) questionnaire data and interviews with intervention-group participants (n = 32). The work units in the intervention group designed their own intervention comprising either implementation of computerised self-scheduling (subgroup A), collection of information about the employees' work-time preferences by questionnaires (subgroup B), or discussion of working hours (subgroup C). Only computerised self-scheduling changed the working hours and the way they were planned. These changes implied more flexible but less regular working hours and an experience of less predictability and less continuity in the care of clients and in the co-operation with colleagues. In subgroup B and C, the participants ended up discussing the potential consequences of more work-time influence without actually implementing any changes. Employee work-time influence may buffer the adverse effects of shift work. However, our intervention study suggested that while increasing the individual flexibility, increasing work-time influence may also result in decreased regularity of the working hours and less continuity in the care of clients and co-operation with colleagues.

A Reliable and Valid Survey to Predict a Patient’s Gagging Intensity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Casey M. Hearing

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to devise a reliable and valid survey to predict the intensity of someone’s gag reflex. Material and Methods: A 10-question Predictive Gagging Survey was created, refined, and tested on 59 undergraduate participants. The questions focused on risk factors and experiences that would indicate the presence and strength of someone’s gag reflex. Reliability was assessed by administering the survey to a group of 17 participants twice, with 3 weeks separating the two administrations. Finally, the survey was given to 25 dental patients. In these cases, patients completed an informed consent form, filled out the survey, and then had a maxillary impression taken while their gagging response was quantified from 1 to 5 on the Fiske and Dickinson Gagging Intensity Index. Results: There was a moderate positive correlation between the Predictive Gagging Survey and Fiske and Dickinson’s Gagging Severity Index, r = +0.64, demonstrating the survey’s validity. Furthermore, the test-retest reliability was r = +0.96, demonstrating the survey’s reliability. Conclusions: The Predictive Gagging Survey is a 10-question survey about gag-related experiences and behaviours. We established that it is a reliable and valid method to assess the strength of someone’s gag reflex.

Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung

1995-02-01

Software reliability is especially important to customers these days. The need to quantify software reliability of safety-critical systems has been received very special attention and the reliability is rated as one of software's most important attributes. Since the software is an intellectual product of human activity and since it is logically complex, the failures are inevitable. No standard models have been established to prove the correctness and to estimate the reliability of software systems by analysis and/or testing. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factor comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this work to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factor Test reliability can also be estimated with this approach without any model change. The application results are close to the actual data. The approach used in this thesis is expected to be applicable to ultra high reliable software systems that are used in nuclear power plants, airplanes, and other safety-critical applications

Reliability of computerized cephalometric outcome predictions of mandibular set-back surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefanović Neda

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. A successful treatment outcome in dentofacial deformity patients commonly requires combined orthodontic-surgical therapy. This enables us to overcome functional, aesthetic and psychological problems. Since most patients state aesthetics as the primary motive for seeking therapy, cephalometric predictions of treatment outcome have become the essential part of treatment planning, especially in combined orthodontic-surgical cases. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of computerized orthognathic surgery outcome predictions generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software. Methods. The sample of the study consisted of 31 patients diagnosed with mandibular prognathism who were surgically treated at the Hospital for Maxillofacial Surgery in Belgrade. Investigation was done on lateral cephalograms made before and after surgical treatment. Cephalograms were digitized and analyzed using computer software. According to measurements made on superimposed pre- and postsurgical cephalograms, the patients were retreated within the software and the predictions were assessed by measuring seven angular and three linear parameters. Prediction measurements were then compared with the actual outcome. Results. Results showed statistically significant changes between posttreatment and predicted values for parameters referring to lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position. Conclusion. Computerized cephalometric predictions for hard-tissue structures in the sagittal and vertical planes, as well as the VTO parameters, generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software are reliable, while lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position predictions are not reliable enough.

Characterization and prediction of rate-dependent flexibility in lumbar spine biomechanics at room and body temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Stolworthy, Dean K; Zirbel, Shannon A; Howell, Larry L; Samuels, Marina; Bowden, Anton E

2014-05-01

The soft tissues of the spine exhibit sensitivity to strain-rate and temperature, yet current knowledge of spine biomechanics is derived from cadaveric testing conducted at room temperature at very slow, quasi-static rates. The primary objective of this study was to characterize the change in segmental flexibility of cadaveric lumbar spine segments with respect to multiple loading rates within the range of physiologic motion by using specimens at body or room temperature. The secondary objective was to develop a predictive model of spine flexibility across the voluntary range of loading rates. This in vitro study examines rate- and temperature-dependent viscoelasticity of the human lumbar cadaveric spine. Repeated flexibility tests were performed on 21 lumbar function spinal units (FSUs) in flexion-extension with the use of 11 distinct voluntary loading rates at body or room temperature. Furthermore, six lumbar FSUs were loaded in axial rotation, flexion-extension, and lateral bending at both body and room temperature via a stepwise, quasi-static loading protocol. All FSUs were also loaded using a control loading test with a continuous-speed loading-rate of 1-deg/sec. The viscoelastic torque-rotation response for each spinal segment was recorded. A predictive model was developed to accurately estimate spine segment flexibility at any voluntary loading rate based on measured flexibility at a single loading rate. Stepwise loading exhibited the greatest segmental range of motion (ROM) in all loading directions. As loading rate increased, segmental ROM decreased, whereas segmental stiffness and hysteresis both increased; however, the neutral zone remained constant. Continuous-speed tests showed that segmental stiffness and hysteresis are dependent variables to ROM at voluntary loading rates in flexion-extension. To predict the torque-rotation response at different loading rates, the model requires knowledge of the segmental flexibility at a single rate and specified

Optimization of reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for inertial navigation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Xiuhong; Duan, Fuhai; Tian, Heng; Wei, Xuedong

2015-01-01

The goal of this study is to propose a reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for a complex structure Inertial Navigation System (INS) with several redundant components. GO Methodology is applied to build the INS reliability analysis model—GO chart. Components Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and system reliability are updated dynamically based on the combination of components lifetime distribution function, stress samples, and the system GO chart. Considering the redundant design in INS, maintenance time is based not only on components RUL, but also (and mainly) on the timing of when system reliability fails to meet the set threshold. The definition of components maintenance priority balances three factors: components importance to system, risk degree, and detection difficulty. Maintenance Priority Number (MPN) is introduced, which may provide quantitative maintenance priority results for all components. A maintenance unit time cost model is built based on components MPN, components RUL predictive model and maintenance intervals for the optimization of maintenance scope. The proposed scheme can be applied to serve as the reference for INS maintenance. Finally, three numerical examples prove the proposed predictive maintenance scheme is feasible and effective. - Highlights: • A dynamic PdM with a rolling horizon is proposed for INS with redundant components. • GO Methodology is applied to build the system reliability analysis model. • A concept of MPN is proposed to quantify the maintenance sequence of components. • An optimization model is built to select the optimal group of maintenance components. • The optimization goal is minimizing the cost of maintaining system reliability

Test-Retest Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Implicit Association Test in Children

Science.gov (United States)

Rae, James R.; Olson, Kristina R.

2018-01-01

The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many…

Reliability and lifetime predictions of SLC klystrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, M.A.; Callin, R.S.; Fowkes, W.R.; Lee, T.G.; Vlieks, A.E.

1989-01-01

The energy upgrade of SLAC, with the first of the new 67 MW SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) klystrons, began over four years ago. Today there are over 200 of these klystrons in operation. As a result, there is a wealth of klystron performance and failure information that enables reasonable predictions to be made on life expectancy and reliability. Data from initial tests, follow-up tests and daily operation monitoring on the accelerator is stored for analysis. Presented here are life expectancy predictions with particular emphasis on cathode life. Also, based on this data, the authors will discuss some of the principal modes of failure. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Reliability and lifetime predictions of SLC klystrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, M.A.; Callin, R.S.; Fowkes, W.R.; Lee, T.G.; Vlieks, A.E.

1989-03-01

The energy upgrade of SLAC, with the first of the new 67 MW SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) klystrons, began over four years ago. Today there are over 200 of these klystrons in operation. As a result, there is a wealth klystron performance and failure information that enables reasonable predictions to be made on life expectancy and reliability. Data from initial tests, follow-up tests and daily operation monitoring on the accelerator is stores for analysis. Presented here are life expectancy predictions with particular emphasis on cathode life. Also, based on this data, we will discuss some of the principal modes of failure. 3 refs., 2 figs

Modeling of Flexible Beams for Robotic Manipulators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martins, Jorge; Ayala Botto, Miguel; Costa, Jose sa da

2002-01-01

This work treats the problem of modeling robotic manipulators with structural flexibility. A mathematical model of a planar manipulator with a single flexible link is developed. This model is capable of reproducing nonlinear dynamic effects, such as the beam stiffening due to the centrifugal forces induced by the rotation of the joints, giving it the capability to predict reliable dynamic behaviors for a wide range of applications. On the other hand, the model complexity is reduced, in order to keep it amenable for analysis and controller design. The models found in current literature for control design of flexible manipulator arms present dynamic limitations for the sake of real time implementation in a control scheme. These limitations are the result of premature linearization in the formulation of the dynamics equations. In this paper, this common linearization is presented and their dynamic limitations uncovered. An alternative reliable model is then presented. The model is founded on two basic assumptions: inextensibility of the neutral fiber and moderate rotations of the cross sections in order to account for the foreshortening of the beam due to bending. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed model has the closest dynamic behavior to the real beam

A common reference population from four European Holstein populations increases reliability of genomic predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens Sandø; de Ross, Sander PW; de Vries, Alfred G

2011-01-01

Background Size of the reference population and reliability of phenotypes are crucial factors influencing the reliability of genomic predictions. It is therefore useful to combine closely related populations. Increased accuracies of genomic predictions depend on the number of individuals added to...

Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goriely, S.

2015-01-01

The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. In the present contribution, the reliability and accuracy of recent nuclear theories are discussed for most of the relevant quantities needed to estimate reaction cross sections and beta-decay rates, namely nuclear masses, nuclear level densities, gamma-ray strength, fission properties and beta-strength functions. It is shown that nowadays, mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenogical inputs in the prediction of nuclear data. While fundamental nuclear physicists keep on improving state-of-the-art models, e.g. within the shell model or ab initio models, nuclear applications could make use of their most recent results as quantitative constraints or guides to improve the predictions in energy or mass domain that will remain inaccessible experimentally. (orig.)

Study of redundant Models in reliability prediction of HXMT's HES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jinming; Liu Congzhan; Zhang Zhi; Ji Jianfeng

2010-01-01

Two redundant equipment structures of HXMT's HES are proposed firstly, the block backup and dual system cold-redundancy. Then prediction of the reliability is made by using parts count method. Research of comparison and analysis is also performed on the two proposals. A conclusion is drawn that a higher reliability and longer service life could be offered by taking a redundant equipment structure of block backup. (authors)

Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J.

2000-09-01

Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction

Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J

2000-09-01

Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction.

Reversibly Bistable Flexible Electronics

KAUST Repository

Alfaraj, Nasir

2015-05-01

Introducing the notion of transformational silicon electronics has paved the way for integrating various applications with silicon-based, modern, high-performance electronic circuits that are mechanically flexible and optically semitransparent. While maintaining large-scale production and prototyping rapidity, this flexible and translucent scheme demonstrates the potential to transform conventionally stiff electronic devices into thin and foldable ones without compromising long-term performance and reliability. In this work, we report on the fabrication and characterization of reversibly bistable flexible electronic switches that utilize flexible n-channel metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors. The transistors are fabricated initially on rigid (100) silicon substrates before they are peeled off. They can be used to control flexible batches of light-emitting diodes, demonstrating both the relative ease of scaling at minimum cost and maximum reliability and the feasibility of integration. The peeled-off silicon fabric is about 25 µm thick. The fabricated devices are transferred to a reversibly bistable flexible platform through which, for example, a flexible smartphone can be wrapped around a user’s wrist and can also be set back to its original mechanical position. Buckling and cyclic bending of such host platforms brings a completely new dimension to the development of flexible electronics, especially rollable displays.

Reliability of a computer software angle tool for measuring spine and pelvic flexibility during the sit-and-reach test.

Science.gov (United States)

Mier, Constance M; Shapiro, Belinda S

2013-02-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of a computer software angle tool that measures thoracic (T), lumbar (L), and pelvic (P) angles as a means of evaluating spine and pelvic flexibility during the sit-and-reach (SR) test. Thirty adults performed the SR twice on separate days. The SR test was captured on video and later analyzed for T, L, and P angles using the computer software angle tool. During the test, 3 markers were placed over T1, T12, and L5 vertebrae to identify T, L, and P angles. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) indicated a very high internal consistency (between trials) for T, L, and P angles (0.95-0.99); thus, the average of trials was used for test-retest (between days) reliability. Mean (±SD) values did not differ between days for T (51.0 ± 14.3 vs. 52.3 ± 16.2°), L (23.9 ± 7.1 vs. 23.0 ± 6.9°), or P (98.4 ± 15.6 vs. 98.3 ± 14.7°) angles. Test-retest reliability (ICC) was high for T (0.96) and P (0.97) angles and moderate for L angle (0.84). Both intrarater and interrater reliabilities were high for T (0.95, 0.94) and P (0.97, 0.97) angles and moderate for L angle (0.87, 0.82). Thus, the computer software angle tool is a highly objective method for assessing spine and pelvic flexibility during a video-captured SR test.

Multiscale weighted colored graphs for protein flexibility and rigidity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bramer, David; Wei, Guo-Wei

2018-02-01

Protein structural fluctuation, measured by Debye-Waller factors or B-factors, is known to correlate to protein flexibility and function. A variety of methods has been developed for protein Debye-Waller factor prediction and related applications to domain separation, docking pose ranking, entropy calculation, hinge detection, stability analysis, etc. Nevertheless, none of the current methodologies are able to deliver an accuracy of 0.7 in terms of the Pearson correlation coefficients averaged over a large set of proteins. In this work, we introduce a paradigm-shifting geometric graph model, multiscale weighted colored graph (MWCG), to provide a new generation of computational algorithms to significantly change the current status of protein structural fluctuation analysis. Our MWCG model divides a protein graph into multiple subgraphs based on interaction types between graph nodes and represents the protein rigidity by generalized centralities of subgraphs. MWCGs not only predict the B-factors of protein residues but also accurately analyze the flexibility of all atoms in a protein. The MWCG model is validated over a number of protein test sets and compared with many standard methods. An extensive numerical study indicates that the proposed MWCG offers an accuracy of over 0.8 and thus provides perhaps the first reliable method for estimating protein flexibility and B-factors. It also simultaneously predicts all-atom flexibility in a molecule.

Reliability and validity of two self-report measures of cognitive flexibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnco, Carly; Wuthrich, Viviana M; Rapee, Ronald M

2014-12-01

Neuropsychological testing currently represents the gold standard in assessing cognitive flexibility. However, this format presents some challenges in terms of time and skills required for administration, scoring, and interpretation. Two self-report measures of cognitive flexibility have been developed to measure aspects of cognitive flexibility in everyday settings, although neither has been validated in an older sample. In this study, we investigated the psychometric properties of 2 self-report measures of cognitive flexibility, the Cognitive Flexibility Inventory (CFI; Dennis & Vander Wal, 2010) and the Cognitive Flexibility Scale (CFS; Martin & Rubin, 1995), against neuropsychological measures of cognitive flexibility in a clinical sample of 47 older adults with comorbid anxiety and depression and a nonclinical sample of 53 community-dwelling older adults. Internal consistency was good for the CFS and CFI in all samples. The clinical sample reported poorer cognitive flexibility than did the nonclinical sample on self-report measures and performed more poorly on some neuropsychological measures. There was evidence of convergent validity between the 2 self-report measures but little relationship between the self-report and neuropsychological measures of cognitive flexibility, suggesting that self-report measures assess a different aspect of cognitive flexibility than does neuropsychological testing. Divergent validity was weak from measures of anxiety and depression in the combined and nonclinical samples but acceptable in the clinical sample. Results suggest that these measures are suitable for use with an older adult sample but do not assess the same aspects of cognitive flexibility as are assessed by neuropsychological assessment. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

2018-03-01

In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

Crystal structure prediction of flexible molecules using parallel genetic algorithms with a standard force field.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seonah; Orendt, Anita M; Ferraro, Marta B; Facelli, Julio C

2009-10-01

This article describes the application of our distributed computing framework for crystal structure prediction (CSP) the modified genetic algorithms for crystal and cluster prediction (MGAC), to predict the crystal structure of flexible molecules using the general Amber force field (GAFF) and the CHARMM program. The MGAC distributed computing framework includes a series of tightly integrated computer programs for generating the molecule's force field, sampling crystal structures using a distributed parallel genetic algorithm and local energy minimization of the structures followed by the classifying, sorting, and archiving of the most relevant structures. Our results indicate that the method can consistently find the experimentally known crystal structures of flexible molecules, but the number of missing structures and poor ranking observed in some crystals show the need for further improvement of the potential. Copyright 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of IRI in short and long terms for flexible pavements: ANN and GMDH methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ziari, H.; Sobhani, J.; Ayoubinejad, J.; Hartmann, Timo

2015-01-01

Prediction of pavement condition is one of the most important issues in pavement management systems. In this paper, capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and group method of data handling (GMDH) methods in predicting flexible pavement conditions were analysed in three levels: in 1 year,

Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

2015-10-01

One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Performance Prediction Modelling for Flexible Pavement on Low Volume Roads Using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Makendran

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Prediction models for low volume village roads in India are developed to evaluate the progression of different types of distress such as roughness, cracking, and potholes. Even though the Government of India is investing huge quantum of money on road construction every year, poor control over the quality of road construction and its subsequent maintenance is leading to the faster road deterioration. In this regard, it is essential that scientific maintenance procedures are to be evolved on the basis of performance of low volume flexible pavements. Considering the above, an attempt has been made in this research endeavor to develop prediction models to understand the progression of roughness, cracking, and potholes in flexible pavements exposed to least or nil routine maintenance. Distress data were collected from the low volume rural roads covering about 173 stretches spread across Tamil Nadu state in India. Based on the above collected data, distress prediction models have been developed using multiple linear regression analysis. Further, the models have been validated using independent field data. It can be concluded that the models developed in this study can serve as useful tools for the practicing engineers maintaining flexible pavements on low volume roads.

Test-retest reliability and predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Rae, James R; Olson, Kristina R

2018-02-01

The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many factors simultaneously (lag-time between testing administrations, domain, etc.), it is difficult to discern what factors may explain variability in existing test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates. Across five studies (total N = 519; ages 6- to 11-years-old), we manipulated two factors that have varied in previous developmental research-lag-time and domain. An internal meta-analysis of these studies revealed that, across three different methods of analyzing the data, mean test-retest (rs of .48, .38, and .34) and predictive validity (rs of .46, .20, and .10) effect sizes were significantly greater than zero. While lag-time did not moderate the magnitude of test-retest coefficients, whether we observed domain differences in test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates was contingent on other factors, such as how we scored the IAT or whether we included estimates from a unique sample (i.e., a sample containing gender typical and gender diverse children). Recommendations are made for developmental researchers that utilize the IAT in their research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Characterization and Predictive Value of Segmental Curve Flexibility in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yao, Guanfeng; Cheung, Jason P Y; Shigematsu, Hideki

2017-01-01

STUDY DESIGN: A prospective radiographic analysis of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients managed with alternate-level pedicle screw fixation was performed. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to characterize segmental curve flexibility and to determine its predictive value...

Fluid and flexible minds: Intelligence reflects synchrony in the brain’s intrinsic network architecture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A. Ferguson

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Human intelligence has been conceptualized as a complex system of dissociable cognitive processes, yet studies investigating the neural basis of intelligence have typically emphasized the contributions of discrete brain regions or, more recently, of specific networks of functionally connected regions. Here we take a broader, systems perspective in order to investigate whether intelligence is an emergent property of synchrony within the brain’s intrinsic network architecture. Using a large sample of resting-state fMRI and cognitive data (n = 830, we report that the synchrony of functional interactions within and across distributed brain networks reliably predicts fluid and flexible intellectual functioning. By adopting a whole-brain, systems-level approach, we were able to reliably predict individual differences in human intelligence by characterizing features of the brain’s intrinsic network architecture. These findings hold promise for the eventual development of neural markers to predict changes in intellectual function that are associated with neurodevelopment, normal aging, and brain disease. In our study, we aimed to understand how individual differences in intellectual functioning are reflected in the intrinsic network architecture of the human brain. We applied statistical methods, known as spectral decompositions, in order to identify individual differences in the synchronous patterns of spontaneous brain activity that reliably predict core aspects of human intelligence. The synchrony of brain activity at rest across multiple discrete neural networks demonstrated positive relationships with fluid intelligence. In contrast, global synchrony within the brain’s network architecture reliably, and inversely, predicted mental flexibility, a core facet of intellectual functioning. The multinetwork systems approach described here represents a methodological and conceptual extension of earlier efforts that related differences in

Neuro-Fuzzy Prediction of Cooperation Interaction Profile of Flexible Road Train Based on Hybrid Automaton Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Banjanovic-Mehmedovic Lejla

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of traffic information is important in many applications in relation to Intelligent Transport systems (ITS, since it reduces the uncertainty of future traffic states and improves traffic mobility. There is a lot of research done in the field of traffic information predictions such as speed, flow and travel time. The most important research was done in the domain of cooperative intelligent transport system (C-ITS. The goal of this paper is to introduce the novel cooperation behaviour profile prediction through the example of flexible Road Trains useful road cooperation parameter, which contributes to the improvement of traffic mobility in Intelligent Transportation Systems. This paper presents an approach towards the control and cooperation behaviour modelling of vehicles in the flexible Road Train based on hybrid automaton and neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS prediction of cooperation profile of the flexible Road Train. Hybrid automaton takes into account complex dynamics of each vehicle as well as discrete cooperation approach. The ANFIS is a particular class of the ANN family with attractive estimation and learning potentials. In order to provide statistical analysis, RMSE (root mean square error, coefficient of determination (R2 and Pearson coefficient (r, were utilized. The study results suggest that ANFIS would be an efficient soft computing methodology, which could offer precise predictions of cooperative interactions between vehicles in Road Train, which is useful for prediction mobility in Intelligent Transport systems.

Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading

Linear Interaction Energy Based Prediction of Cytochrome P450 1A2 Binding Affinities with Reliability Estimation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luigi Capoferri

Full Text Available Prediction of human Cytochrome P450 (CYP binding affinities of small ligands, i.e., substrates and inhibitors, represents an important task for predicting drug-drug interactions. A quantitative assessment of the ligand binding affinity towards different CYPs can provide an estimate of inhibitory activity or an indication of isoforms prone to interact with the substrate of inhibitors. However, the accuracy of global quantitative models for CYP substrate binding or inhibition based on traditional molecular descriptors can be limited, because of the lack of information on the structure and flexibility of the catalytic site of CYPs. Here we describe the application of a method that combines protein-ligand docking, Molecular Dynamics (MD simulations and Linear Interaction Energy (LIE theory, to allow for quantitative CYP affinity prediction. Using this combined approach, a LIE model for human CYP 1A2 was developed and evaluated, based on a structurally diverse dataset for which the estimated experimental uncertainty was 3.3 kJ mol-1. For the computed CYP 1A2 binding affinities, the model showed a root mean square error (RMSE of 4.1 kJ mol-1 and a standard error in prediction (SDEP in cross-validation of 4.3 kJ mol-1. A novel approach that includes information on both structural ligand description and protein-ligand interaction was developed for estimating the reliability of predictions, and was able to identify compounds from an external test set with a SDEP for the predicted affinities of 4.6 kJ mol-1 (corresponding to 0.8 pKi units.

Can shoulder dystocia be reliably predicted?

Science.gov (United States)

Dodd, Jodie M; Catcheside, Britt; Scheil, Wendy

2012-06-01

To evaluate factors reported to increase the risk of shoulder dystocia, and to evaluate their predictive value at a population level. The South Australian Pregnancy Outcome Unit's population database from 2005 to 2010 was accessed to determine the occurrence of shoulder dystocia in addition to reported risk factors, including age, parity, self-reported ethnicity, presence of diabetes and infant birth weight. Odds ratios (and 95% confidence interval) of shoulder dystocia was calculated for each risk factor, which were then incorporated into a logistic regression model. Test characteristics for each variable in predicting shoulder dystocia were calculated. As a proportion of all births, the reported rate of shoulder dystocia increased significantly from 0.95% in 2005 to 1.38% in 2010 (P = 0.0002). Using a logistic regression model, induction of labour and infant birth weight greater than both 4000 and 4500 g were identified as significant independent predictors of shoulder dystocia. The value of risk factors alone and when incorporated into the logistic regression model was poorly predictive of the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. While there are a number of factors associated with an increased risk of shoulder dystocia, none are of sufficient sensitivity or positive predictive value to allow their use clinically to reliably and accurately identify the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. © 2012 The Authors ANZJOG © 2012 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

Science.gov (United States)

Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

2007-01-01

The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

Pseudoracemic amino acid complexes: blind predictions for flexible two-component crystals.

Science.gov (United States)

Görbitz, Carl Henrik; Dalhus, Bjørn; Day, Graeme M

2010-08-14

Ab initio prediction of the crystal packing in complexes between two flexible molecules is a particularly challenging computational chemistry problem. In this work we present results of single crystal structure determinations as well as theoretical predictions for three 1 ratio 1 complexes between hydrophobic l- and d-amino acids (pseudoracemates), known from previous crystallographic work to form structures with one of two alternative hydrogen bonding arrangements. These are accurately reproduced in the theoretical predictions together with a series of patterns that have never been observed experimentally. In this bewildering forest of potential polymorphs, hydrogen bonding arrangements and molecular conformations, the theoretical predictions succeeded, for all three complexes, in finding the correct hydrogen bonding pattern. For two of the complexes, the calculations also reproduce the exact space group and side chain orientations in the best ranked predicted structure. This includes one complex for which the observed crystal packing clearly contradicted previous experience based on experimental data for a substantial number of related amino acid complexes. The results highlight the significant recent advances that have been made in computational methods for crystal structure prediction.

A dynamic particle filter-support vector regression method for reliability prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Zhao; Tao, Tao; ZhuoShu, Ding; Zio, Enrico

2013-01-01

Support vector regression (SVR) has been applied to time series prediction and some works have demonstrated the feasibility of its use to forecast system reliability. For accuracy of reliability forecasting, the selection of SVR's parameters is important. The existing research works on SVR's parameters selection divide the example dataset into training and test subsets, and tune the parameters on the training data. However, these fixed parameters can lead to poor prediction capabilities if the data of the test subset differ significantly from those of training. Differently, the novel method proposed in this paper uses particle filtering to estimate the SVR model parameters according to the whole measurement sequence up to the last observation instance. By treating the SVR training model as the observation equation of a particle filter, our method allows updating the SVR model parameters dynamically when a new observation comes. Because of the adaptability of the parameters to dynamic data pattern, the new PF–SVR method has superior prediction performance over that of standard SVR. Four application results show that PF–SVR is more robust than SVR to the decrease of the number of training data and the change of initial SVR parameter values. Also, even if there are trends in the test data different from those in the training data, the method can capture the changes, correct the SVR parameters and obtain good predictions. -- Highlights: •A dynamic PF–SVR method is proposed to predict the system reliability. •The method can adjust the SVR parameters according to the change of data. •The method is robust to the size of training data and initial parameter values. •Some cases based on both artificial and real data are studied. •PF–SVR shows superior prediction performance over standard SVR

Impact of Relationships between Test and Reference Animals and between Reference Animals on Reliability of Genomic Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Xiaoping; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sun, Dongxiao

This study investigated reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to relationship between test and reference animals and between animals within the reference population. Different reference populations were generated from EuroGenomics data and 1288 Nordic Holstein bulls...... as a common test population. A GBLUP model and a Bayesian mixture model were applied to predict Genomic breeding values for bulls in the test data. Result showed that a closer relationship between test and reference animals led to a higher reliability, while a closer relationship between reference animal...... resulted in a lower reliability. Therefore, the design of reference population is important for improving the reliability of genomic prediction. With regard to model, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to slightly a higher reliability of genomic prediction than the GBLUP model...

Empowering Variable Renewables - Options for Flexible Electricity Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chandler, Hugo [Renewable Energy Unit, International Energy Agency, Paris (France)

2008-07-01

A flexible electricity system is one that can respond reliably, and rapidly, to large fluctuations in supply and demand. Flexibility is already present in all power systems, in order to manage fluctuations in demand, and it is crucial for high performance and economic and reliable operation. This paper looks at measures to increase flexibility. but careful cost/benefit analysis is essential, and specific national and regional circumstances will influence the choice of option(s).

Association of grey matter changes with stability and flexibility of prediction in akinetic-rigid Parkinson's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Trempler, Ima; Binder, Ellen; El-Sourani, Nadiya; Schiffler, Patrick; Tenberge, Jan-Gerd; Schiffer, Anne-Marike; Fink, Gereon R; Schubotz, Ricarda I

2018-06-01

Parkinson's disease (PD), which is caused by degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the midbrain, results in a heterogeneous clinical picture including cognitive decline. Since the phasic signal of dopamine neurons is proposed to guide learning by signifying mismatches between subjects' expectations and external events, we here investigated whether akinetic-rigid PD patients without mild cognitive impairment exhibit difficulties in dealing with either relevant (requiring flexibility) or irrelevant (requiring stability) prediction errors. Following our previous study on flexibility and stability in prediction (Trempler et al. J Cogn Neurosci 29(2):298-309, 2017), we then assessed whether deficits would correspond with specific structural alterations in dopaminergic regions as well as in inferior frontal cortex, medial prefrontal cortex, and the hippocampus. Twenty-one healthy controls and twenty-one akinetic-rigid PD patients on and off medication performed a task which required to serially predict upcoming items. Switches between predictable sequences had to be indicated via button press, whereas sequence omissions had to be ignored. Independent of the disease, midbrain volume was related to a general response bias to unexpected events, whereas right putamen volume correlated with the ability to discriminate between relevant and irrelevant prediction errors. However, patients compared with healthy participants showed deficits in stabilisation against irrelevant prediction errors, associated with thickness of right inferior frontal gyrus and left medial prefrontal cortex. Flexible updating due to relevant prediction errors was also affected in patients compared with controls and associated with right hippocampus volume. Dopaminergic medication influenced behavioural performance across, but not within the patients. Our exploratory study warrants further research on deficient prediction error processing and its structural correlates as a core of cognitive symptoms

Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.

1999-01-01

Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.

Exploiting protein flexibility to predict the location of allosteric sites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Panjkovich Alejandro

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Allostery is one of the most powerful and common ways of regulation of protein activity. However, for most allosteric proteins identified to date the mechanistic details of allosteric modulation are not yet well understood. Uncovering common mechanistic patterns underlying allostery would allow not only a better academic understanding of the phenomena, but it would also streamline the design of novel therapeutic solutions. This relatively unexplored therapeutic potential and the putative advantages of allosteric drugs over classical active-site inhibitors fuel the attention allosteric-drug research is receiving at present. A first step to harness the regulatory potential and versatility of allosteric sites, in the context of drug-discovery and design, would be to detect or predict their presence and location. In this article, we describe a simple computational approach, based on the effect allosteric ligands exert on protein flexibility upon binding, to predict the existence and position of allosteric sites on a given protein structure. Results By querying the literature and a recently available database of allosteric sites, we gathered 213 allosteric proteins with structural information that we further filtered into a non-redundant set of 91 proteins. We performed normal-mode analysis and observed significant changes in protein flexibility upon allosteric-ligand binding in 70% of the cases. These results agree with the current view that allosteric mechanisms are in many cases governed by changes in protein dynamics caused by ligand binding. Furthermore, we implemented an approach that achieves 65% positive predictive value in identifying allosteric sites within the set of predicted cavities of a protein (stricter parameters set, 0.22 sensitivity, by combining the current analysis on dynamics with previous results on structural conservation of allosteric sites. We also analyzed four biological examples in detail, revealing

CCTop: An Intuitive, Flexible and Reliable CRISPR/Cas9 Target Prediction Tool.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Stemmer

Full Text Available Engineering of the CRISPR/Cas9 system has opened a plethora of new opportunities for site-directed mutagenesis and targeted genome modification. Fundamental to this is a stretch of twenty nucleotides at the 5' end of a guide RNA that provides specificity to the bound Cas9 endonuclease. Since a sequence of twenty nucleotides can occur multiple times in a given genome and some mismatches seem to be accepted by the CRISPR/Cas9 complex, an efficient and reliable in silico selection and evaluation of the targeting site is key prerequisite for the experimental success. Here we present the CRISPR/Cas9 target online predictor (CCTop, http://crispr.cos.uni-heidelberg.de to overcome limitations of already available tools. CCTop provides an intuitive user interface with reasonable default parameters that can easily be tuned by the user. From a given query sequence, CCTop identifies and ranks all candidate sgRNA target sites according to their off-target quality and displays full documentation. CCTop was experimentally validated for gene inactivation, non-homologous end-joining as well as homology directed repair. Thus, CCTop provides the bench biologist with a tool for the rapid and efficient identification of high quality target sites.

Reliability analysis of component of affination centrifugal 1 machine by using reliability engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Sembiring, N.; Ginting, E.; Darnello, T.

2017-12-01

Problems that appear in a company that produces refined sugar, the production floor has not reached the level of critical machine availability because it often suffered damage (breakdown). This results in a sudden loss of production time and production opportunities. This problem can be solved by Reliability Engineering method where the statistical approach to historical damage data is performed to see the pattern of the distribution. The method can provide a value of reliability, rate of damage, and availability level, of an machine during the maintenance time interval schedule. The result of distribution test to time inter-damage data (MTTF) flexible hose component is lognormal distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. While from distribution test to mean time of improvement (MTTR) flexible hose component is exponential distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. The actual results of the flexible hose component on the replacement schedule per 720 hours obtained reliability of 0.2451 and availability 0.9960. While on the critical components of teflon cone lifthing actual on the replacement schedule per 1944 hours obtained reliability of 0.4083 and availability 0.9927.

The reliability of flexible nasolaryngoscopy in the identification of vocal fold movement impairment in young infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yi-Chun Carol; McElwee, Tyler; Musso, Mary; Rosenberg, Tara L; Ongkasuwan, Julina

2017-09-01

Flexible nasolaryngoscopy (FNL) is considered the gold standard for evaluation of vocal fold mobility but there has been no data on the reliability of interpretation in the infant population. Visualization may be limited by excessive movement, secretions, or floppy supraglottic structures that prevent accurate diagnosis of vocal fold movement impairment (VFMI). We sought to evaluate the inter- and intra-rater reliability of FNL for the evaluation of VFMI in young infants. Case-control. Twenty infants were identified: 10 with VFMI and 10 normal as seen on FNL. Three pediatric otolaryngologists reviewed the video without sound and rated the presence and/or degree of vocal fold mobility. Twelve videos were repeated to assess intra-rater reliability. There was substantial agreement between the reviewers regarding the identification normal vs. any type of VFMI (kappa = 0.67) but only moderate agreement regarding the degree of vocal fold movement (kappa = 0.49). Intra-rater reliability ranges from moderate to perfect agreement (kappa = 0.48-1). FNL in infants is an extremely challenging procedure. Clinically, physicians frequently use the quality of the cry and the past medical and surgical history to help make a judgment of vocal fold movement when the view is suboptimal. These other factors, however, may bias the interpretation of the FNL. Without sound, there is only moderate inter-rater and variable intra-rater reliability for the identification of degree of movement on FNL. Otolaryngologists must be cognizant of the limitations of FNL when using it as a clinical tool or as a "gold standard" against which other modalities are measured. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban water supply infrastructure planning under predictive groundwater uncertainty: Bayesian updating and flexible design

Science.gov (United States)

Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K.

2017-12-01

Many urban water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from increasing demands from population and economic growth in combination with uncertain water supply, driven by short-term climate variability and long-term climate change. These uncertainties are often exacerbated in groundwater-dependent water systems due to the extra difficulty in measuring groundwater storage, recharge, and sustainable yield. Groundwater models are typically under-parameterized due to the high data requirements for calibration and limited data availability, leading to uncertainty in the models' predictions. We develop an integrated approach to urban water supply planning that combines predictive groundwater uncertainty analysis with adaptive water supply planning using multi-stage decision analysis. This allows us to compare the value of collecting additional groundwater data and reducing predictive uncertainty with the value of using water infrastructure planning that is flexible, modular, and can react quickly in response to unexpected changes in groundwater availability. We apply this approach to a case from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh relies on fossil groundwater aquifers and desalination for urban use. The main fossil aquifers incur minimal recharge and face depletion as a result of intense withdrawals for urban and agricultural use. As the water table declines and pumping becomes uneconomical, Riyadh will have to build new supply infrastructure, decrease demand, or increase the efficiency of its distribution system. However, poor groundwater characterization has led to severe uncertainty in aquifer parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, and therefore severe uncertainty in how the water table will respond to pumping over time and when these transitions will be necessary: the potential depletion time varies from approximately five years to 100 years. This case is an excellent candidate for flexible planning both because of its severity and the potential for

A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

2014-09-01

LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

Using Data Mining Approaches for Force Prediction of a Dynamically Loaded Flexible Structure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schlechtingen, Meik; Achiche, Sofiane; Lourenco Costa, Tiago

2014-01-01

-deterministic excitation forces with different excitation frequencies and amplitudes. Additionally, the influence of the sampling frequency and sensor location on the model performance is investigated. The results obtained in this paper show that most data mining approaches can be used, when a certain degree of inaccuracy...... of freedom and a force transducer for validation and training. The models are trained using data obtained from applying a random excitation force on the flexible structure. The performance of the developed models is evaluated by analyzing the prediction capabilities based on a normalized prediction error...

Stabilizing model predictive control of a gantry crane based on flexible set-membership constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Iles, Sandor; Lazar, M.; Kolonic, Fetah; Jadranko, Matusko

2015-01-01

This paper presents a stabilizing distributed model predictive control of a gantry crane taking into account the variation of cable length. The proposed algorithm is based on the off-line computation of a sequence of 1-step controllable sets and a condition that enables flexible convergence towards

Towards accurate prediction of unbalance response, oil whirl and oil whip of flexible rotors supported by hydrodynamic bearings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eling, R.P.T.; te Wierik, M.; van Ostayen, R.A.J.; Rixen, D.J.

2016-01-01

Journal bearings are used to support rotors in a wide range of applications. In order to ensure reliable operation, accurate analyses of these rotor-bearing systems are crucial. Coupled analysis of the rotor and the journal bearing is essential in the case that the rotor is flexible. The accuracy of

Software reliability

CERN Document Server

Bendell, A

1986-01-01

Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

Final report on reliability and lifetime prediction.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillen, Kenneth T; Wise, Jonathan; Jones, Gary D.; Causa, Al G.; Terrill, Edward R.; Borowczak, Marc

2012-12-01

This document highlights the important results obtained from the subtask of the Goodyear CRADA devoted to better understanding reliability of tires and to developing better lifetime prediction methods. The overall objective was to establish the chemical and physical basis for the degradation of tires using standard as well as unique models and experimental techniques. Of particular interest was the potential application of our unique modulus profiling apparatus for assessing tire properties and for following tire degradation. During the course of this complex investigation, extensive relevant information was generated, including experimental results, data analyses and development of models and instruments. Detailed descriptions of the findings are included in this report.

Design for reliability in power electronics in renewable energy systems – status and future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede; Ma, Ke

2013-01-01

Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible interconnection of renewable sources, loads and electric grids. While targets concerning efficiency of power converters are within reach, recent research endeavors to predict and improve their reliability to ensure high availability, low...... maintenance costs, and herefore, low Levelized-Cost-of-Energy (LCOE) of renewable energy systems. This paper presents the prior-art Design for Reliability (DFR) process for power converters and addresses the paradigm shift to Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile based analysis. Moreover...

Developing Predictive Maintenance Expertise to Improve Plant Equipment Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wurzbach, Richard N.

2002-01-01

On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

Science.gov (United States)

McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

2018-03-01

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

Energy Flexibility in the Power System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Billanes, Joy Dalmacio; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2017-01-01

Energy flexibility can address the challenges of large scale integration of renewable energy resources and thereby increasing imbalance in the power system. Flexible power system can provide reliable supply, low electricity cost and sustainability. Various situations and factors influence...... the adoption of the flexibility solutions, such as flexible electricity generation, demand-response, and electricity storage. This paper tries to analyze the current energy flexibility solutions and the factors that can influence the energy flexibility adoption. This paper takes Philippines as case study...... to provide an overview of the current condition of the Philippines’ power system and discuss the energy flexibility in the Philippines’ power system. A further discussion and recommendation is conducted in the end of the paper....

Reliability Prediction Approaches For Domestic Intelligent Electric Energy Meter Based on IEC62380

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ning; Tong, Guanghua; Yang, Jincheng; Sun, Guodong; Han, Dongjun; Wang, Guixian

2018-01-01

The reliability of intelligent electric energy meter is a crucial issue considering its large calve application and safety of national intelligent grid. This paper developed a procedure of reliability prediction for domestic intelligent electric energy meter according to IEC62380, especially to identify the determination of model parameters combining domestic working conditions. A case study was provided to show the effectiveness and validation.

Improved prediction of residue flexibility by embedding optimized amino acid grouping into RSA-based linear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hua; Kurgan, Lukasz

2014-12-01

Knowledge of protein flexibility is vital for deciphering the corresponding functional mechanisms. This knowledge would help, for instance, in improving computational drug design and refinement in homology-based modeling. We propose a new predictor of the residue flexibility, which is expressed by B-factors, from protein chains that use local (in the chain) predicted (or native) relative solvent accessibility (RSA) and custom-derived amino acid (AA) alphabets. Our predictor is implemented as a two-stage linear regression model that uses RSA-based space in a local sequence window in the first stage and a reduced AA pair-based space in the second stage as the inputs. This method is easy to comprehend explicit linear form in both stages. Particle swarm optimization was used to find an optimal reduced AA alphabet to simplify the input space and improve the prediction performance. The average correlation coefficients between the native and predicted B-factors measured on a large benchmark dataset are improved from 0.65 to 0.67 when using the native RSA values and from 0.55 to 0.57 when using the predicted RSA values. Blind tests that were performed on two independent datasets show consistent improvements in the average correlation coefficients by a modest value of 0.02 for both native and predicted RSA-based predictions.

The fair value of operational reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Morel, Benoit

2005-01-01

Information about the uncertainties that surround the operation of the power system can be used to enlighten the debate of how much reliability should be pursued and how resources should be allocated to pursue it. In this paper we present a method to determine the value of having flexible generators to react to load fluctuations. This value can be seen as the value of hedging against the uncertainty on the load due to the volatility of the demand and the possibility of congestion. Because having this flexibility can be related to a financial option, we will use an extension of options theory and in particular the risk-neutral valuation method, to find a risk neutral quantification of its value. We illustrate our point valuing the flexibility that leads to ''operational reliability'' in the PJM market. Our formula for that value is what we call ''the fair value'' of operational reliability. (Author)

Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

Reliability Calculations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Kurt Erling

1986-01-01

Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

Doing the counter-regulation shuffle: The importance of flexibility and hunger for predicting food consumption following a preload.

Science.gov (United States)

Broadbent, Jaclyn; Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; Dennerstein, Michelle; Greenwood, Jesse; Hancock, Naomi; Thavapalan, Nithyyaa; White, Melissa

This study utilised the preload paradigm to evaluate whether trait-like dieting attitudes and behaviours (dietary restraint and flexibility in dieting rules) and context-specific factors (negative mood and hunger) predict food consumption among male and female participants. Following a high calorie preload, 79 participants aged 18-40 completed a deceptive taste test in which they were encouraged to eat as much of the taste test foods as desired, and this ad libitum intake was measured. Although each predictor (except negative mood) predicted consumption when tested individually, regression analyses revealed that dieting flexibility and current hunger were the strongest unique predictors of intake. Mood failed to directly predict food consumption, nor did it moderate the relationship between restraint and food intake. Collectively, findings suggest that emphasis on dietary restraint in preload studies may be misplaced, as other proximal and stable factors may better predict food consumption. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flexible non-linear predictive models for large-scale wind turbine diagnostics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bach-Andersen, Martin; Rømer-Odgaard, Bo; Winther, Ole

2017-01-01

We demonstrate how flexible non-linear models can provide accurate and robust predictions on turbine component temperature sensor data using data-driven principles and only a minimum of system modeling. The merits of different model architectures are evaluated using data from a large set...... of turbines operating under diverse conditions. We then go on to test the predictive models in a diagnostic setting, where the output of the models are used to detect mechanical faults in rotor bearings. Using retrospective data from 22 actual rotor bearing failures, the fault detection performance...... of the models are quantified using a structured framework that provides the metrics required for evaluating the performance in a fleet wide monitoring setup. It is demonstrated that faults are identified with high accuracy up to 45 days before a warning from the hard-threshold warning system....

Facile and Reliable in Situ Polymerization of Poly(Ethyl Cyanoacrylate)-Based Polymer Electrolytes toward Flexible Lithium Batteries.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Yanyan; Chai, Jingchao; Du, Huiping; Duan, Yulong; Xie, Guangwen; Liu, Zhihong; Cui, Guanglei

2017-03-15

Polycyanoacrylate is a very promising matrix for polymer electrolyte, which possesses advantages of strong binding and high electrochemical stability owing to the functional nitrile groups. Herein, a facile and reliable in situ polymerization strategy of poly(ethyl cyanoacrylate) (PECA) based gel polymer electrolytes (GPE) via a high efficient anionic polymerization was introduced consisting of PECA and 4 M LiClO 4 in carbonate solvents. The in situ polymerized PECA gel polymer electrolyte achieved an excellent ionic conductivity (2.7 × 10 -3 S cm -1 ) at room temperature, and exhibited a considerable electrochemical stability window up to 4.8 V vs Li/Li + . The LiFePO 4 /PECA-GPE/Li and LiNi 1.5 Mn 0.5 O 4 /PECA-GPE/Li batteries using this in-situ-polymerized GPE delivered stable charge/discharge profiles, considerable rate capability, and excellent cycling performance. These results demonstrated this reliable in situ polymerization process is a very promising strategy to prepare high performance polymer electrolytes for flexible thin-film batteries, micropower lithium batteries, and deformable lithium batteries for special purpose.

The fair value of operational reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Morel, Benoit

2005-12-15

Information about the uncertainties that surround the operation of the power system can be used to enlighten the debate of how much reliability should be pursued and how resources should be allocated to pursue it. In this paper we present a method to determine the value of having flexible generators to react to load fluctuations. This value can be seen as the value of hedging against the uncertainty on the load due to the volatility of the demand and the possibility of congestion. Because having this flexibility can be related to a financial option, we will use an extension of options theory and in particular the risk-neutral valuation method, to find a risk neutral quantification of its value. We illustrate our point valuing the flexibility that leads to ''operational reliability'' in the PJM market. Our formula for that value is what we call ''the fair value'' of operational reliability. (Author)

Sustained selective attention predicts flexible switching in preschoolers.

Science.gov (United States)

Benitez, Viridiana L; Vales, Catarina; Hanania, Rima; Smith, Linda B

2017-04-01

Stability and flexibility are fundamental to an intelligent cognitive system. Here, we examined the relationship between stability in selective attention and explicit control of flexible attention. Preschoolers were tested on the Dimension Preference (DP) task, which measures the stability of selective attention to an implicitly primed dimension, and the Dimension Change Card Sort (DCCS) task, which measures flexible attention switching between dimensions. Children who successfully switched on the DCCS task were more likely than those who perseverated to sustain attention to the primed dimension on the DP task across trials. We propose that perseverators have less stable attention and distribute their attention between dimensions, whereas switchers can successfully stabilize attention to individual dimensions and, thus, show more enduring priming effects. Flexible attention may emerge, in part, from implicit processes that stabilize attention even in tasks not requiring switching. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Architecture of cognitive flexibility revealed by lesion mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Barbey, Aron K.; Colom, Roberto; Grafman, Jordan

2013-01-01

Neuroscience has made remarkable progress in understanding the architecture of human intelligence, identifying a distributed network of brain structures that support goal-directed, intelligent behavior. However, the neural foundations of cognitive flexibility and adaptive aspects of intellectual function remain to be well characterized. Here, we report a human lesion study (n = 149) that investigates the neural bases of key competencies of cognitive flexibility (i.e., mental flexibility and the fluent generation of new ideas) and systematically examine their contributions to a broad spectrum of cognitive and social processes, including psychometric intelligence (Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale), emotional intelligence (Mayer, Salovey, Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test), and personality (Neuroticism–Extraversion–Openness Personality Inventory). Latent variable modeling was applied to obtain error-free indices of each factor, followed by voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping to elucidate their neural substrates. Regression analyses revealed that latent scores for psychometric intelligence reliably predict latent scores for cognitive flexibility (adjusted R2 = 0.94). Lesion mapping results further indicated that these convergent processes depend on a shared network of frontal, temporal, and parietal regions, including white matter association tracts, which bind these areas into an integrated system. A targeted analysis of the unique variance explained by cognitive flexibility further revealed selective damage within the right superior temporal gyrus, a region known to support insight and the recognition of novel semantic relations. The observed findings motivate an integrative framework for understanding the neural foundations of adaptive behavior, suggesting that core elements of cognitive flexibility emerge from a distributed network of brain regions that support specific competencies for human intelligence. PMID:23721727

Predicting sumoylation sites using support vector machines based on various sequence features, conformational flexibility and disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Yavuz, Ahmet Sinan; Sezerman, Osman Ugur

2014-01-01

Sumoylation, which is a reversible and dynamic post-translational modification, is one of the vital processes in a cell. Before a protein matures to perform its function, sumoylation may alter its localization, interactions, and possibly structural conformation. Abberations in protein sumoylation has been linked with a variety of disorders and developmental anomalies. Experimental approaches to identification of sumoylation sites may not be effective due to the dynamic nature of sumoylation, laborsome experiments and their cost. Therefore, computational approaches may guide experimental identification of sumoylation sites and provide insights for further understanding sumoylation mechanism. In this paper, the effectiveness of using various sequence properties in predicting sumoylation sites was investigated with statistical analyses and machine learning approach employing support vector machines. These sequence properties were derived from windows of size 7 including position-specific amino acid composition, hydrophobicity, estimated sub-window volumes, predicted disorder, and conformational flexibility. 5-fold cross-validation results on experimentally identified sumoylation sites revealed that our method successfully predicts sumoylation sites with a Matthew's correlation coefficient, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy equal to 0.66, 73%, 98%, and 97%, respectively. Additionally, we have showed that our method compares favorably to the existing prediction methods and basic regular expressions scanner. By using support vector machines, a new, robust method for sumoylation site prediction was introduced. Besides, the possible effects of predicted conformational flexibility and disorder on sumoylation site recognition were explored computationally for the first time to our knowledge as an additional parameter that could aid in sumoylation site prediction.

The application of cognitive models to the evaluation and prediction of human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.; Reason, J.T.

1986-01-01

The first section of the paper provides a brief overview of a number of important principles relevant to human reliability modeling that have emerged from cognitive models, and presents a synthesis of these approaches in the form of a Generic Error Modeling System (GEMS). The next section illustrates the application of GEMS to some well known nuclear power plant (NPP) incidents in which human error was a major contributor. The way in which design recommendations can emerge from analyses of this type is illustrated. The third section describes the use of cognitive models in the classification of human errors for prediction and data collection purposes. The final section addresses the predictive modeling of human error as part of human reliability assessment in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein-protein interactions from more than 100 species.

Science.gov (United States)

López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

2015-01-01

HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Reliability and Validity of the Load-Velocity Relationship to Predict the 1RM Back Squat.

Science.gov (United States)

Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, Kazunori; Haff, G Gregory

2017-07-01

Banyard, HG, Nosaka, K, and Haff, GG. Reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the 1RM back squat. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1897-1904, 2017-This study investigated the reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the free-weight back squat one repetition maximum (1RM). Seventeen strength-trained males performed three 1RM assessments on 3 separate days. All repetitions were performed to full depth with maximal concentric effort. Predicted 1RMs were calculated by entering the mean concentric velocity of the 1RM (V1RM) into an individualized linear regression equation, which was derived from the load-velocity relationship of 3 (20, 40, 60% of 1RM), 4 (20, 40, 60, 80% of 1RM), or 5 (20, 40, 60, 80, 90% of 1RM) incremental warm-up sets. The actual 1RM (140.3 ± 27.2 kg) was very stable between 3 trials (ICC = 0.99; SEM = 2.9 kg; CV = 2.1%; ES = 0.11). Predicted 1RM from 5 warm-up sets up to and including 90% of 1RM was the most reliable (ICC = 0.92; SEM = 8.6 kg; CV = 5.7%; ES = -0.02) and valid (r = 0.93; SEE = 10.6 kg; CV = 7.4%; ES = 0.71) of the predicted 1RM methods. However, all predicted 1RMs were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05; ES = 0.71-1.04) from the actual 1RM. Individual variation for the actual 1RM was small between trials ranging from -5.6 to 4.8% compared with the most accurate predictive method up to 90% of 1RM, which was more variable (-5.5 to 27.8%). Importantly, the V1RM (0.24 ± 0.06 m·s) was unreliable between trials (ICC = 0.42; SEM = 0.05 m·s; CV = 22.5%; ES = 0.14). The load-velocity relationship for the full depth free-weight back squat showed moderate reliability and validity but could not accurately predict 1RM, which was stable between trials. Thus, the load-velocity relationship 1RM prediction method used in this study cannot accurately modify sessional training loads because of large V1RM variability.

Differential Role of CBT Skills, DBT Skills and Psychological Flexibility in Predicting Depressive versus Anxiety Symptom Improvement

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Christian A.; Beard, Courtney; Kertz, Sarah J.; Hsu, Kean; Björgvinsson, Thröstur

2016-01-01

Objective Studies have reported associations between cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) skill use and symptom improvement in depressed outpatient samples. However, little is known regarding the temporal relationship between different subsets of therapeutic skills and symptom change among relatively severely depressed patients receiving treatment in psychiatric hospital settings. Method Adult patients with major depression (N=173) receiving combined psychotherapeutic and pharmacological treatment at a psychiatric hospital completed repeated assessments of traditional CBT skills, DBT skills and psychological flexibility, as well as depressive and anxiety symptoms. Results Results indicated that only use of behavioral activation (BA) strategies significantly predicted depressive symptom improvement in this sample; whereas DBT skills and psychological flexibility predicted anxiety symptom change. In addition, a baseline symptom severity X BA strategies interaction emerged indicating that those patients with higher pretreatment depression severity exhibited the strongest association between use of BA strategies and depressive symptom improvement. Conclusions Findings suggest the importance of emphasizing the acquisition and regular use of BA strategies with severely depressed patients in short-term psychiatric settings. In contrast, an emphasis on the development of DBT skills and the cultivation of psychological flexibility may prove beneficial for the amelioration of anxiety symptoms. PMID:27057997

Self-motivated visual scanning predicts flexible navigation in a virtual environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elisabeth Jeannette Ploran

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The ability to navigate flexibly (e.g., reorienting oneself based on distal landmarks to reach a learned target from a new position may rely on visual scanning during both initial experiences with the environment and subsequent test trials. Reliance on visual scanning during navigation harkens back to the concept of vicarious trial and error, a description of the side-to-side head movements made by rats as they explore previously traversed sections of a maze in an attempt to find a reward. In the current study, we examined if visual scanning predicted the extent to which participants would navigate to a learned location in a virtual environment defined by its position relative to distal landmarks. Our results demonstrated a significant positive relationship between the amount of visual scanning and participant accuracy in identifying the trained target location from a new starting position as long as the landmarks within the environment remain consistent with the period of original learning. Our findings indicate that active visual scanning of the environment is a deliberative attentional strategy that supports the formation of spatial representations for flexible navigation.

Failure and reliability prediction by support vector machines regression of time series data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chagas Moura, Marcio das; Zio, Enrico; Lins, Isis Didier; Droguett, Enrique

2011-01-01

Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are kernel-based learning methods, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems. However, their use in reliability applications has not been widely explored. In this paper, a comparative analysis is presented in order to evaluate the SVM effectiveness in forecasting time-to-failure and reliability of engineered components based on time series data. The performance on literature case studies of SVM regression is measured against other advanced learning methods such as the Radial Basis Function, the traditional MultiLayer Perceptron model, Box-Jenkins autoregressive-integrated-moving average and the Infinite Impulse Response Locally Recurrent Neural Networks. The comparison shows that in the analyzed cases, SVM outperforms or is comparable to other techniques. - Highlights: → Realistic modeling of reliability demands complex mathematical formulations. → SVM is proper when the relation input/output is unknown or very costly to be obtained. → Results indicate the potential of SVM for reliability time series prediction. → Reliability estimates support the establishment of adequate maintenance strategies.

Reliably Modeling the Mechanical Stability of Rigid and Flexible Metal-Organic Frameworks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogge, Sven M J; Waroquier, Michel; Van Speybroeck, Veronique

2018-01-16

, however, it is unclear which set of properties are suited and reliable for a given application, as a comprehensive comparison for a broad variety of MOFs is absent, impeding the widespread use of these theoretical frameworks. Herein, we fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of the three computational models on a broad set of MOFs that are representative for current applications. These materials encompass the mechanically rigid UiO-66(Zr) and MOF-5(Zn) as well as the flexible MIL-47(V) and MIL-53(Al), which undergo pressure-induced phase transitions. It is observed that the Born stability criteria and pressure-versus-volume equations of state give complementary insight into the macroscopic and microscopic origins of instability, respectively. However, interpretation of the Born stability criteria becomes increasingly difficult when less symmetric materials are considered. Moreover, pressure fluctuations during the simulations hamper their accuracy for flexible materials. In contrast, the pressure-versus-volume equations of state are determined in a thermodynamic ensemble specifically targeted to mitigate the effects of these instantaneous fluctuations, yielding more accurate results. The critical Account presented here paves the way toward a solid computational framework for an extensive presynthetic screening of MOFs to select those that are mechanically stable and can be postsynthetically densified before their use in targeted applications.

Reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

1993-08-01

This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

Nonparametric predictive inference for reliability of a k-out-of-m:G system with multiple component types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aboalkhair, Ahmad M.; Coolen, Frank P.A.; MacPhee, Iain M.

2014-01-01

Nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability has recently been presented, with specific focus on k-out-of-m:G systems. The reliability of systems is quantified by lower and upper probabilities of system functioning, given binary test results on components, taking uncertainty about component functioning and indeterminacy due to limited test information explicitly into account. Thus far, systems considered were series configurations of subsystems, with each subsystem i a k i -out-of-m i :G system which consisted of only one type of components. Key results are briefly summarized in this paper, and as an important generalization new results are presented for a single k-out-of-m:G system consisting of components of multiple types. The important aspects of redundancy and diversity for such systems are discussed. - Highlights: • New results on nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability. • Prediction of system reliability based on test data for components. • New insights on system redundancy optimization and diversity. • Components that appear inferior in tests may be included to enhance redundancy

Reliable Radiographic Inspection of Flexible Risers for the Oil Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Rômulo M.; Rebello, Joao Marcos A.; Vaz, Murilo A.

2010-02-01

Flexible risers are composite tubular structures manufactured by the concentric assemblage of cylindrical polymeric and helically wound metallic layers employed to convey pressurized fluids such as oil, gas and water in the ocean environment. The metallic layers account for the flexible risers' structural strength and are dimensioned according to the static and dynamic loads. They are usually installed in a free hanging catenary configuration and are subjected to the direct action of waves and marine currents and wave induced motions from the oil production platform. The fatigue rupture of wire armours in the end fitting or within the riser segment protected by the bend stiffener is an object of major concern. Integrity models have been developed, however inspection techniques are mandatory to ensure that failure is detected. Gammagraphy has been used as a common inspection technique in all regions of the flexible riser, mainly with the single wall-single view method. On the other side, there is not any qualified radiographic procedure to this kind of structure. Radiographic simulation was adopted and its validation with actual gammagraphies and establishment of radiographic parameters to complex radiation geometries were done. Results show the viability of the radiographic inspection analyzing the armour wires' rupture and the displacement between wires.

RELIABLE RADIOGRAPHIC INSPECTION OF FLEXIBLE RISERS FOR THE OIL INDUSTRY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Almeida, Romulo M.; Rebello, Joao Marcos A.; Vaz, Murilo A.

2010-01-01

Flexible risers are composite tubular structures manufactured by the concentric assemblage of cylindrical polymeric and helically wound metallic layers employed to convey pressurized fluids such as oil, gas and water in the ocean environment. The metallic layers account for the flexible risers' structural strength and are dimensioned according to the static and dynamic loads. They are usually installed in a free hanging catenary configuration and are subjected to the direct action of waves and marine currents and wave induced motions from the oil production platform. The fatigue rupture of wire armours in the end fitting or within the riser segment protected by the bend stiffener is an object of major concern. Integrity models have been developed, however inspection techniques are mandatory to ensure that failure is detected. Gammagraphy has been used as a common inspection technique in all regions of the flexible riser, mainly with the single wall-single view method. On the other side, there is not any qualified radiographic procedure to this kind of structure. Radiographic simulation was adopted and its validation with actual gammagraphies and establishment of radiographic parameters to complex radiation geometries were done. Results show the viability of the radiographic inspection analyzing the armour wires' rupture and the displacement between wires.

Vicinal 1H-1H NMR coupling constants from density functional theory as reliable tools for stereochemical analysis of highly flexible multichiral center molecules.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Vallejo, Fabian; Fragoso-Serrano, Mabel; Suárez-Ortiz, Gloria Alejandra; Hernández-Rojas, Adriana C; Cerda-García-Rojas, Carlos M; Pereda-Miranda, Rogelio

2011-08-05

A protocol for stereochemical analysis, based on the systematic comparison between theoretical and experimental vicinal (1)H-(1)H NMR coupling constants, was developed and applied to a series of flexible compounds (1-8) derived from the 6-heptenyl-5,6-dihydro-2H-pyran-2-one framework. The method included a broad conformational search, followed by geometry optimization at the DFT B3LYP/DGDZVP level, calculation of the vibrational frequencies, thermochemical parameters, magnetic shielding tensors, and the total NMR spin-spin coupling constants. Three scaling factors, depending on the carbon atom hybridizations, were found for the (1)H-C-C-(1)H vicinal coupling constants: f((sp3)-(sp3)) = 0.910, f((sp3)-(sp2)) = 0.929, and f((sp2)-(sp2))= 0.977. A remarkable correlation between the theoretical (J(pre)) and experimental (1)H-(1)H NMR (J(exp)) coupling constants for spicigerolide (1), a cytotoxic natural product, and some of its synthetic stereoisomers (2-4) demonstrated the predictive value of this approach for the stereochemical assignment of highly flexible compounds containing multiple chiral centers. The stereochemistry of two natural 6-heptenyl-5,6-dihydro-2H-pyran-2-ones (14 and 15) containing diverse functional groups in the heptenyl side chain was also analyzed by application of this combined theoretical and experimental approach, confirming its reliability. Additionally, a geometrical analysis for the conformations of 1-8 revealed that weak hydrogen bonds substantially guide the conformational behavior of the tetraacyloxy-6-heptenyl-2H-pyran-2-ones.

Reliability calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, K.E.

1986-03-01

Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

1992-07-01

The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Modelling Flexible Pavement Response and Performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ullidtz, Per

This textbook is primarily concerned with models for predicting the future condition of flexible pavements, as a function of traffic loading, climate, materials, etc., using analytical-empirical methods.......This textbook is primarily concerned with models for predicting the future condition of flexible pavements, as a function of traffic loading, climate, materials, etc., using analytical-empirical methods....

A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Bent; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl; Andersen, Pernille

2009-01-01

: The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability...... comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0.79 and 0.74 are obtained using our and the compared method, respectively. This tendency is true for any selected subset....

Quasi-static analysis of flexible pavements based on predicted frequencies using Fast Fourier Transform and Artificial Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Reza Ghanizadeh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available New trend in design of flexible pavements is mechanistic-empirical approach. The first step for applying this method is analyzing the pavement structure for several times and computation of critical stresses and strains, which needs a fast analysis method with good accuracy. This paper aims to introduce a new rapid pavement analysis approach, which can consider the history of loading and rate effect. To this end, 1200 flexible pavement sections were analyzed, and equivalent frequencies (EF were calculated using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT method at various depths of asphalt layer. A nonlinear regression equation has been presented for determining EF at different depths of asphalt layer. For more accurate predicting of EF at low frequencies, a feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN was employed, which allows accurate prediction of EF. The frequencies obtained by the proposed regression equation and ANN were compared with frequencies observed in Virginia Smart Road project, and it was found that there is a good agreement between observed and predicted frequencies. Comparison of quasi-static analysis of flexible pavements by frequencies obtained using FFT method and full dynamic analysis by 3D-Move program approves that the critical responses of pavement computed by proposed quasi-static analysis approach are comparable to critical responses computed using full dynamic analysis. Keywords: Equivalent frequency, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT, Pavement quasi-static analysis, Dynamic modulus, Artificial Neural Network (ANN

Development of equipment reliability process using predictive technologies at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taniguchi, Yuji; Sakuragi, Futoshi; Hamada, Seiichi

2014-01-01

Development of equipment reliability(ER) process, specifically for predictive maintenance (PdM) technologies integrated condition based maintenance (CBM) process, at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station is introduced in this paper. Integration of predictive maintenance technologies such as vibration, oil analysis and thermo monitoring is more than important to establish strong maintenance strategies and to direct a specific technical development. In addition, a practical example of CBM is also presented to support the advantage of the idea. (author)

The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale

Technical considerations for flexible piping design in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, S.C.; Chou, C.K.

1985-01-01

The overall objective of this research project is to develop a technical basis for flexible piping designs which will improve piping reliability and minimize the use of pipe supports, snubbers, and pipe whip restraints. The current study was conducted to establish the necessary groundwork based on the piping reliability analysis. A confirmatory piping reliability assessment indicated that removing rigid supports and snubbers tends to either improve or affect very little the piping reliability. A couple of changes to be implemented in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.61 and RG 1.122 aimed at more flexible piping design were investigated. It was concluded that these changes substantially reduce calculated piping responses and allows piping redesigns with significant reduction in number of supports and snubbers without violating ASME code requirements

ARA and ARI imperfect repair models: Estimation, goodness-of-fit and reliability prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toledo, Maria Luíza Guerra de; Freitas, Marta A.; Colosimo, Enrico A.; Gilardoni, Gustavo L.

2015-01-01

An appropriate maintenance policy is essential to reduce expenses and risks related to equipment failures. A fundamental aspect to be considered when specifying such policies is to be able to predict the reliability of the systems under study, based on a well fitted model. In this paper, the classes of models Arithmetic Reduction of Age and Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity are explored. Likelihood functions for such models are derived, and a graphical method is proposed for model selection. A real data set involving failures in trucks used by a Brazilian mining is analyzed considering models with different memories. Parameters, namely, shape and scale for Power Law Process, and the efficiency of repair were estimated for the best fitted model. Estimation of model parameters allowed us to derive reliability estimators to predict the behavior of the failure process. These results are a valuable information for the mining company and can be used to support decision making regarding preventive maintenance policy. - Highlights: • Likelihood functions for imperfect repair models are derived. • A goodness-of-fit technique is proposed as a tool for model selection. • Failures in trucks owned by a Brazilian mining are modeled. • Estimation allowed deriving reliability predictors to forecast the future failure process of the trucks

Flexible Use of Predictive Cues beyond the Orbitofrontal Cortex: Role of the Submedius Thalamic Nucleus.

Science.gov (United States)

Alcaraz, Fabien; Marchand, Alain R; Vidal, Elisa; Guillou, Alexandre; Faugère, Angélique; Coutureau, Etienne; Wolff, Mathieu

2015-09-23

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is known to play a crucial role in learning the consequences of specific events. However, the contribution of OFC thalamic inputs to these processes is largely unknown. Using a tract-tracing approach, we first demonstrated that the submedius nucleus (Sub) shares extensive reciprocal connections with the OFC. We then compared the effects of excitotoxic lesions of the Sub or the OFC on the ability of rats to use outcome identity to direct responding. We found that neither OFC nor Sub lesions interfered with the basic differential outcomes effect. However, more specific tests revealed that OFC rats, but not Sub rats, were disproportionally relying on the outcome, rather than on the discriminative stimulus, to guide behavior, which is consistent with the view that the OFC integrates information about predictive cues. In subsequent experiments using a Pavlovian contingency degradation procedure, we found that both OFC and Sub lesions produced a severe deficit in the ability to update Pavlovian associations. Altogether, the submedius therefore appears as a functionally relevant thalamic component in a circuit dedicated to the integration of predictive cues to guide behavior, previously conceived as essentially dependent on orbitofrontal functions. Significance statement: In the present study, we identify a largely unknown thalamic region, the submedius nucleus, as a new functionally relevant component in a circuit supporting the flexible use of predictive cues. Such abilities were previously conceived as largely dependent on the orbitofrontal cortex. Interestingly, this echoes recent findings in the field showing, in research involving an instrumental setup, an additional involvement of another thalamic nuclei, the parafascicular nucleus, when correct responding requires an element of flexibility (Bradfield et al., 2013a). Therefore, the present contribution supports the emerging view that limbic thalamic nuclei may contribute critically to

A flexible latent class approach to estimating test-score reliability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Palm, D.W.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.

2014-01-01

The latent class reliability coefficient (LCRC) is improved by using the divisive latent class model instead of the unrestricted latent class model. This results in the divisive latent class reliability coefficient (DLCRC), which unlike LCRC avoids making subjective decisions about the best solution

Physics-based process modeling, reliability prediction, and design guidelines for flip-chip devices

Science.gov (United States)

Michaelides, Stylianos

Flip Chip on Board (FCOB) and Chip-Scale Packages (CSPs) are relatively new technologies that are being increasingly used in the electronic packaging industry. Compared to the more widely used face-up wirebonding and TAB technologies, flip-chips and most CSPs provide the shortest possible leads, lower inductance, higher frequency, better noise control, higher density, greater input/output (I/O), smaller device footprint and lower profile. However, due to the short history and due to the introduction of several new electronic materials, designs, and processing conditions, very limited work has been done to understand the role of material, geometry, and processing parameters on the reliability of flip-chip devices. Also, with the ever-increasing complexity of semiconductor packages and with the continued reduction in time to market, it is too costly to wait until the later stages of design and testing to discover that the reliability is not satisfactory. The objective of the research is to develop integrated process-reliability models that will take into consideration the mechanics of assembly processes to be able to determine the reliability of face-down devices under thermal cycling and long-term temperature dwelling. The models incorporate the time and temperature-dependent constitutive behavior of various materials in the assembly to be able to predict failure modes such as die cracking and solder cracking. In addition, the models account for process-induced defects and macro-micro features of the assembly. Creep-fatigue and continuum-damage mechanics models for the solder interconnects and fracture-mechanics models for the die have been used to determine the reliability of the devices. The results predicted by the models have been successfully validated against experimental data. The validated models have been used to develop qualification and test procedures for implantable medical devices. In addition, the research has helped develop innovative face

Reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, Frederik Banch; Krog, Grethe Risum; Rieneck, Klaus

2005-01-01

The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis.......The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis....

General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

2016-01-01

The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

1981-06-01

Service ( ATARS ) module because of its interim status. Reliability prediction models for software modules were derived and then verified by matching...System (A’iCR3BS) and thus can be introduced gradually and economically without ma jor olper- ational or procedural change. Since DABS uses monopulse...lineanaly- sis tools or are ured during maintenance or pre-initialization were not modeled because they are not part of the mission software. The ATARS

Reliability Prediction Of System And Component Of Process System Of RSG-GAS Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sitorus Pane, Jupiter

2001-01-01

The older the reactor the higher the probability of the system and components suffer from loss of function or degradation. This phenomenon occurred because of wear, corrosion, and fatigue. Study on component reliability was generally performed deterministically and statistically. This paper would describe an analysis of using statistical method, i.e. regression Cox, in order to predict the reliability of the components and their environmental influence's factors. The result showed that the dynamics, non safety related, and mechanic components have higher risk of failure, whereas static, safety related, and electric have lower risk of failures. The relative risk value for variable of components dynamics, quality, dummy 1 and dummy 2 are of 1.54, 1.59, 1.50, and 0.83 compare to other components type with each variable. Component with the higher risk have lower reliability than lower one

Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Yizhen; Wang, Yu; Zi, YanYang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Zhang, Chuhua

2017-01-01

The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented. - Highlights: • A new multiple imputation strategy was developed to derive the PDF of missing data. • A new order statistic model was developed to simplify the imputation procedure. • The parameters of the order statistic model were iteratively inferred by MCEM. • A real cases study was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The prediction of reliability and residual life of reactor pressure components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemec, J.; Antalovsky, S.

1978-01-01

The paper deals with the problem of PWR pressure components reliability and residual life evaluation and prediction. A physical model of damage cumulation which serves as a theoretical basis for all considerations presents two major aspects. The first one describes the dependence of the degree of damage in the crack leading-edge in pressure components on the reactor system load-time history, i.e. on the number of transient loads. Both stages, fatigue crack initiation and growth through the wall until the critical length is reached, are investigated. The crack is supposed to initiate at the flaws in a strength weld joint or in the bimetallic weld of the base ferritic steel and the austenitic stainless overlay cladding. The growth rates of developed cracks are analysed in respect to different load-time histories. Important cyclic properties of some steels are derived from the low-cycle fatigue theory. The second aspect is the load-time history-dependent process of precipitation, deformation and radiation aging, characterized entirely by the critical crack-length value mentioned above. The fracture point, defined by the equation ''crack-length=critical value'' and hence the residual life, can be evaluated using this model and verified by in-service inspection. The physical model described is randomized by considering all the parameters of the model as random. Monte Carlo methods are applied and fatigue crack initiation and growth is simulated. This permits evaluation of the reliability and residual life of the component. The distributions of material and load-time history parameters are needed for such simulation. Both the deterministic and computer-simulated probabilistic predictions of reliability and residual life are verified by prior-to-failure sequential testing of data coming from in-service NDT periodical inspections. (author)

Effect of loading pattern on longitudinal bowing in flexible roll forming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jae Hyun; Woo, Young Yun; Hwang, Tae Woo; Han, Sang Wook; Moon, Young Hoon [School of Mechanical Engineering, Engineering Research Center for Net Shape and Die Manufacturing, Pusan National University,Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

The flexible roll forming process can be used to fabricate products with a variable cross-section profile in the longitudinal direction. Transversal nonuniformity of the longitudinal strain is one of the fundamental characteristics of blank deformation in flexible roll forming. Longitudinal bowing is a shape defect caused by transversal nonuniformity of the longitudinal strain. In this study, loading patterns in flexible roll forming are investigated in order to reduce the longitudinal bowing in a roll-formed blank. To analyze the effects of loading patterns on longitudinal bowing, two different forming schedules are implemented. In schedule 1, loading patterns with different bending angle increments are designed under fixed initial and final bending angles. In schedule 2, loading patterns with different initial bending angles under the fixed final bending angle are designed. Our results show that the bowing heights are significantly affected by the loading patterns. The bowing susceptibilities vary with blank shape such as trapezoid, convex, and concave shapes. In addition to the peak longitudinal strain at the respective roll stands, the cumulative longitudinal strain from the initial to final stands is shown to be a reliable index in predicting the tendency of longitudinal bowing.

Predictive Power of Family Cohesion and Flexibility on Children’s’ Self - Esteem and Happiness in Female High School Students in Shiraz, Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Jahedi

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract ‌Background & aim: The role of family in shaping affective and cognitive characteristics of children, especially girls, who the future health of community depends on their mental health, is evident. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictive power of family cohesion and flexibility on self-esteem and happiness of children in high school girl students in Shiraz. Methods: In the present correlational study design, 303 cases of Shiraz secondary girl students who lived with their parents were chosen through the multistage random cluster sampling method. They responded to questionnaires for consistency of family, positives flexibility, Cooper Smith Self-esteem and Oxford Happiness scale. The data were analyzed by Pearson correlation and multiple regressions. Results Family consistency had significant positive power predictive for criterion variables self-esteem and happiness (p <0.05, whereas the flexibility had no such significance. Conclusion: Quality of operation of parents, communication and interaction in family life is one of the best determinants of behavior, health and well-being of children, including their self-esteem and happiness. Key words: Family cohesion, Family flexibility, Self-esteem, Happiness, Child

Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

2014-09-01

Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology.

Genotyping cows for the reference increase reliability of genomic prediction in a small breed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Sørensen, Anders Christian; Lund, Mogens Sandø

2013-01-01

We hypothesized that adding cows to the reference population in a breed with a small number of reference bulls would increase reliabilities of genomic breeding values and genetic gain. We tested this premise by comparing two strategies for maintaining the reference population for genetic gain......, inbreeding and reliabilities of genomic predictions: 1) Adding 60 progeny tested bulls each year (B), and 2) in addition to 60 progeny tested bulls, adding 2,000 genotyped cows per year (C). Two breeding schemes were tested: 1) A turbo scheme (T) with only genotyped young bulls used intensively, and 2...... compared to the H-B, at the same level of ∆F. T-C yielded 15% higher ∆G compared t o T-B. Changing the breeding scheme from H-B to H-C increased ∆G by 5.5%. The lowest ∆F was observed with genotyping of cows. Reliabilities of GEBV in the C schemes showed a steep increase in reliability during the first...

Load and Flexibility Models for Distribution Grid Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kouzelis, Konstantinos

to advanced metering and control infrastructure investments. These investments will transform distribution networks into smarter" grids which will facilitate flexible load/generation control in return for financial and reliability benefits to electricity consumers. The theoretical idea of modernising the grid...... involve lack of generic load forecasts, need for flexible load/generation estimation techniques from smart meter measurements, deficiencies in online load distribution observability, and, finally, energy market compatible control algorithms which treat consumer flexibility in a fair manner. These modules...... congestions, is proposed. In the first step, a central controller manages flexibility proactively, whereas in the second step a decentralised control scheme deals with flexibility reactively. Both controllers are designed in such a way, that compatibility with contemporary markets is assured, while special...

Validity and reliability of self-assessed physical fitness using visual analogue scales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strøyer, Jesper; Essendrop, Morten; Jensen, Lone Donbaek

2007-01-01

To test the validity and reliability of self-assessed physical fitness samples included healthcare assistants working at a hospital (women=170, men=17), persons working with physically and mentally handicapped patients (women=530, men= 123), and two separate groups of healthcare students (a) women...... except for flexibility among men. The reliability was moderate to good (ICC = .62 - .80). Self-assessed aerobic fitness, muscle strength, and flexibility showed moderate construct validity and moderate to good reliability using visual analogues.......=91 and men=5 and (b) women=159 and men=10. Five components of physical fitness were self-assessed by Visual Analogue Scales with illustrations and verbal anchors for the extremes: aerobic fitness, muscle strength, endurance, flexibility, and balance. Convergent and divergent validity were evaluated...

[Reliability and validity of the Braden Scale for predicting pressure sore risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Boes, C

2000-12-01

For more accurate and objective pressure sore risk assessment various risk assessment tools were developed mainly in the USA and Great Britain. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk is one such example. By means of a literature analysis of German and English texts referring to the Braden Scale the scientific control criteria reliability and validity will be traced and consequences for application of the scale in Germany will be demonstrated. Analysis of 4 reliability studies shows an exclusive focus on interrater reliability. Further, even though examination of 19 validity studies occurs in many different settings, such examination is limited to the criteria sensitivity and specificity (accuracy). The range of sensitivity and specificity level is 35-100%. The recommended cut off points rank in the field of 10 to 19 points. The studies prove to be not comparable with each other. Furthermore, distortions in these studies can be found which affect accuracy of the scale. The results of the here presented analysis show an insufficient proof for reliability and validity in the American studies. In Germany, the Braden scale has not yet been tested under scientific criteria. Such testing is needed before using the scale in different German settings. During the course of such testing, construction and study procedures of the American studies can be used as a basis as can the problems be identified in the analysis presented below.

Do in-training evaluation reports deserve their bad reputations? A study of the reliability and predictive ability of ITER scores and narrative comments.

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsburg, Shiphra; Eva, Kevin; Regehr, Glenn

2013-10-01

Although scores on in-training evaluation reports (ITERs) are often criticized for poor reliability and validity, ITER comments may yield valuable information. The authors assessed across-rotation reliability of ITER scores in one internal medicine program, ability of ITER scores and comments to predict postgraduate year three (PGY3) performance, and reliability and incremental predictive validity of attendings' analysis of written comments. Numeric and narrative data from the first two years of ITERs for one cohort of residents at the University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine (2009-2011) were assessed for reliability and predictive validity of third-year performance. Twenty-four faculty attendings rank-ordered comments (without scores) such that each resident was ranked by three faculty. Mean ITER scores and comment rankings were submitted to regression analyses; dependent variables were PGY3 ITER scores and program directors' rankings. Reliabilities of ITER scores across nine rotations for 63 residents were 0.53 for both postgraduate year one (PGY1) and postgraduate year two (PGY2). Interrater reliabilities across three attendings' rankings were 0.83 for PGY1 and 0.79 for PGY2. There were strong correlations between ITER scores and comments within each year (0.72 and 0.70). Regressions revealed that PGY1 and PGY2 ITER scores collectively explained 25% of variance in PGY3 scores and 46% of variance in PGY3 rankings. Comment rankings did not improve predictions. ITER scores across multiple rotations showed decent reliability and predictive validity. Comment ranks did not add to the predictive ability, but correlation analyses suggest that trainee performance can be measured through these comments.

Interactive reliability assessment using an integrated reliability data bank

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allan, R.N.; Whitehead, A.M.

1986-01-01

The logical structure, techniques and practical application of a computer-aided technique based on a microcomputer using floppy disc Random Access Files is described. This interactive computational technique is efficient if the reliability prediction program is coupled directly to a relevant source of data to create an integrated reliability assessment/reliability data bank system. (DG)

NEAT-FLEX: Predicting the conformational flexibility of amino acids using neuroevolution of augmenting topologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Grisci, Bruno; Dorn, Márcio

2017-06-01

The development of computational methods to accurately model three-dimensional protein structures from sequences of amino acid residues is becoming increasingly important to the structural biology field. This paper addresses the challenge of predicting the tertiary structure of a given amino acid sequence, which has been reported to belong to the NP-Complete class of problems. We present a new method, namely NEAT-FLEX, based on NeuroEvolution of Augmenting Topologies (NEAT) to extract structural features from (ABS) proteins that are determined experimentally. The proposed method manipulates structural information from the Protein Data Bank (PDB) and predicts the conformational flexibility (FLEX) of residues of a target amino acid sequence. This information may be used in three-dimensional structure prediction approaches as a way to reduce the conformational search space. The proposed method was tested with 24 different amino acid sequences. Evolving neural networks were compared against a traditional error back-propagation algorithm; results show that the proposed method is a powerful way to extract and represent structural information from protein molecules that are determined experimentally.

Reliability Of Kraus-Weber Exercise Test As An Evaluation Tool In ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Reliability Of Kraus-Weber Exercise Test As An Evaluation Tool In Low Back ... strength and flexibility of the back, abdominal, psoas and hamstring muscles. ... Keywords: Kraus-Weber test, low back pain, muscle flexibility, muscle strength.

Reliability of dipstick assay in predicting urinary tract infection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anith Kumar Mambatta

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Aims: Urine dipstick analysis is a quick, cheap and a useful test in predicting Urinary Tract Infection (UTI in hospitalized patients. Our aim is to evaluate the reliability (sensitivity of urine dipstick analysis against urine culture in the diagnosis of UTI. Materials and Methods: Patients admitted to our hospital suspected of having UTI, with positive urine cultures were included in this study from a 2-year period (January 2011 to December 2012. Dipstick urinalysis was done using multistix 10 SG (Siemens and clinitek advantus analyzer. The sensitivity of dipstick nitrites, leukocyte esterase and blood in these culture-positive UTI patients was calculated retrospectively. Results: Urine dipstick analysis of 635 urine culture-positive patients was studied. The sensitivity of nitrite alone and leukocyte esterase alone were 23.31% and 48.5%, respectively. The sensitivity of blood alone in positive urine culture was 63.94%, which was the highest sensitivity for a single screening test. The presence of leukocyte esterase and/or blood increased the sensitivity to 72.28%. The sensitivity was found to be the highest when nitrite, leukocyte and blood were considered together. Conclusions: Nitrite test and leukocyte esterase test when used individually is not reliable to rule out UTI. Hence, symptomatic UTI patients with negative dipstick assay should be subjected to urine culture for a proper management.

How reliable must advanced nondestructive testing be? A concept for the prediction, validation and raised quality of NDT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nockemann, C.; Tillack, G.R.; Schnitger, D.; Heidt, H.

1995-01-01

A concept of the harmonic integration of the following three mainstays of the reliability of ndt is proposed: 1. Theoretical prediction of the reliability as a function of physical parameter by computer modelling of the test problem concerned and the ndt process; maximisation by variation of the parameters. 2. Experimental evaluation of the reliability of ndt processes by the application of statistical methods to test practice. 3. Increasing the reliability by the combination of several ndt methods in a standard DV environment and European interconnection and provision of a distributed databank system. International exchange of experience via telecommunication. (orig.) [de

A Tutorial on Nonlinear Time-Series Data Mining in Engineering Asset Health and Reliability Prediction: Concepts, Models, and Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Dong

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The primary objective of engineering asset management is to optimize assets service delivery potential and to minimize the related risks and costs over their entire life through the development and application of asset health and usage management in which the health and reliability prediction plays an important role. In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset is generally described as monitored nonlinear time-series data and subject to high levels of uncertainty and unpredictability. It has been proved that application of data mining techniques is very useful for extracting relevant features which can be used as parameters for assets diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, a tutorial on nonlinear time-series data mining in engineering asset health and reliability prediction is given. Besides that an overview on health and reliability prediction techniques for engineering assets is covered, this tutorial will focus on concepts, models, algorithms, and applications of hidden Markov models (HMMs and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs in engineering asset health prognosis, which are representatives of recent engineering asset health prediction techniques.

An Introduction To Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Kyoung Su

1993-08-01

This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

Interfacial characterization of flexible hybrid electronics

Science.gov (United States)

Najafian, Sara; Amirkhizi, Alireza V.; Stapleton, Scott

2018-03-01

Flexible Hybrid Electronics (FHEs) are the new generation of electronics combining flexible plastic film substrates with electronic devices. Besides the electrical features, design improvements of FHEs depend on the prediction of their mechanical and failure behavior. Debonding of electronic components from the flexible substrate is one of the most common and critical failures of these devices, therefore, the experimental determination of material and interface properties is of great importance in the prediction of failure mechanisms. Traditional interface characterization involves isolated shear and normal mode tests such as the double cantilever beam (DCB) and end notch flexure (ENF) tests. However, due to the thin, flexible nature of the materials and manufacturing restrictions, tests mirroring traditional interface characterization experiments may not always be possible. The ideal goal of this research is to design experiments such that each mode of fracture is isolated. However, due to the complex nonlinear nature of the response and small geometries of FHEs, design of the proper tests to characterize the interface properties can be significantly time and cost consuming. Hence numerical modeling has been implemented to design these novel characterization experiments. This research involves loading case and specimen geometry parametric studies using numerical modeling to design future experiments where either shear or normal fracture modes are dominant. These virtual experiments will provide a foundation for designing similar tests for many different types of flexible electronics and predicting the failure mechanism independent of the specific FHE materials.

Flexible Transparent Supercapacitors Based on Hierarchical Nanocomposite Films.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Fanhong; Wan, Pengbo; Xu, Haijun; Sun, Xiaoming

2017-05-31

Flexible transparent electronic devices have recently gained immense popularity in smart wearable electronics and touch screen devices, which accelerates the development of the portable power sources with reliable flexibility, robust transparency and integration to couple these electronic devices. For potentially coupled as energy storage modules in various flexible, transparent and portable electronics, the flexible transparent supercapacitors are developed and assembled from hierarchical nanocomposite films of reduced graphene oxide (rGO) and aligned polyaniline (PANI) nanoarrays upon their synergistic advantages. The nanocomposite films are fabricated from in situ PANI nanoarrays preparation in a blended solution of aniline monomers and rGO onto the flexible, transparent, and stably conducting film (FTCF) substrate, which is obtained by coating silver nanowires (Ag NWs) layer with Meyer rod and then coating of rGO layer on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) substrate. Optimization of the transparency, the specific capacitance, and the flexibility resulted in the obtained all-solid state nanocomposite supercapacitors exhibiting enhanced capacitance performance, good cycling stability, excellent flexibility, and superior transparency. It provides promising application prospects for exploiting flexible, low-cost, transparent, and high-performance energy storage devices to be coupled into various flexible, transparent, and wearable electronic devices.

Between Flexibility and Reliability. Changing Planning Culture in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiu-Yuan Wang

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to provide an outline to address questions with regard to the transformation of planning in China that has occurred after the 1980s. The research is using “planning evolution” as the main research skeleton. The starting point is to investigate to what extent Chinese urban planning has developed after the opening up and other reforms under the state-led and market-driven modes of Chinese reformation, and to investigate how the different modes and various actors have influenced urban planning, based on the investigation of the respective political and economic changes within the initial reformation in general, and planning in particular. In recent years, China has undeniably undergone a dramatic process of urban growth and transformation. Apart from its speed and scope, it is less recognized that these processes are confronting the Chinese planning institutions with new and unexpected demands almost on a daily basis. In reference to the increasing importance of private investments and developments within the Chinese urbanization process, a new balance between public planning and private developments, and between top-down and bottom-up approaches is required to be able to generate both a reliable and responsible framework for long-term urban development and a flexible system of implementation that meets the needs of changing conditions and new demands. Flexibility and reliability become the new demands for planning practice. Based on the theory of planning culture, planning traditions, concepts, systems and decision-making processes are always related to the cultural context and cultural background of the people and societies involved. Investigating the contemporary urban transformation and urban development processes in China can allow us to outline the new planning culture of contemporary China in relation to its historical roots and traditional characteristics in a long term framework. I argue that the changing

HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein?protein interactions from more than 100 species

OpenAIRE

L?pez, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

2015-01-01

HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein?protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein?protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of p...

Agreement Between Face-to-Face and Free Software Video Analysis for Assessing Hamstring Flexibility in Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Moral-Muñoz, José A; Esteban-Moreno, Bernabé; Arroyo-Morales, Manuel; Cobo, Manuel J; Herrera-Viedma, Enrique

2015-09-01

The objective of this study was to determine the level of agreement between face-to-face hamstring flexibility measurements and free software video analysis in adolescents. Reduced hamstring flexibility is common in adolescents (75% of boys and 35% of girls aged 10). The length of the hamstring muscle has an important role in both the effectiveness and the efficiency of basic human movements, and reduced hamstring flexibility is related to various musculoskeletal conditions. There are various approaches to measuring hamstring flexibility with high reliability; the most commonly used approaches in the scientific literature are the sit-and-reach test, hip joint angle (HJA), and active knee extension. The assessment of hamstring flexibility using video analysis could help with adolescent flexibility follow-up. Fifty-four adolescents from a local school participated in a descriptive study of repeated measures using a crossover design. Active knee extension and HJA were measured with an inclinometer and were simultaneously recorded with a video camera. Each video was downloaded to a computer and subsequently analyzed using Kinovea 0.8.15, a free software application for movement analysis. All outcome measures showed reliability estimates with α > 0.90. The lowest reliability was obtained for HJA (α = 0.91). The preliminary findings support the use of a free software tool for assessing hamstring flexibility, offering health professionals a useful tool for adolescent flexibility follow-up.

Reliability of self-reported childhood physical abuse by adults and factors predictive of inconsistent reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

McKinney, Christy M; Harris, T Robert; Caetano, Raul

2009-01-01

Little is known about the reliability of self-reported child physical abuse (CPA) or CPA reporting practices. We estimated reliability and prevalence of self-reported CPA and identified factors predictive of inconsistent CPA reporting among 2,256 participants using surveys administered in 1995 and 2000. Reliability of CPA was fair to moderate (kappa = 0.41). Using a positive report from either survey, the prevalence of moderate (61.8%) and severe (12.0%) CPA was higher than at either survey alone. Compared to consistent reporters of having experienced CPA, inconsistent reporters were less likely to be > or = 30 years old (vs. 18-29) or Black (vs. White) and more likely to have report one type (vs. > or = 2) of CPA. These findings may assist researchers conducting and interpreting studies of CPA.

An overall methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design with industrial application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habchi, Georges; Barthod, Christine

2016-01-01

We propose in this paper an overall ten-step methodology dedicated to the analysis and quantification of reliability during the design phase of a mechatronic system, considered as a complex system. The ten steps of the methodology are detailed according to the downward side of the V-development cycle usually used for the design of complex systems. Two main phases of analysis are complementary and cover the ten steps, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The qualitative phase proposes to analyze the functional and dysfunctional behavior of the system and then determine its different failure modes and degradation states, based on external and internal functional analysis, organic and physical implementation, and dependencies between components, with consideration of customer specifications and mission profile. The quantitative phase is used to calculate the reliability of the system and its components, based on the qualitative behavior patterns, and considering data gathering and processing and reliability targets. Systemic approach is used to calculate the reliability of the system taking into account: the different technologies of a mechatronic system (mechanics, electronics, electrical .), dependencies and interactions between components and external influencing factors. To validate the methodology, the ten steps are applied to an industrial system, the smart actuator of Pack'Aero Company. - Highlights: • A ten-step methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design. • Qualitative and quantitative analysis for reliability evaluation using PN and RBD. • A dependency matrix proposal, based on the collateral and functional interactions. • Models consider mission profile, deterioration, interactions and influent factors. • Application and validation of the methodology on the “Smart Actuator” of PACK’AERO.

Modeling and control of flexible space structures

Science.gov (United States)

Wie, B.; Bryson, A. E., Jr.

1981-01-01

The effects of actuator and sensor locations on transfer function zeros are investigated, using uniform bars and beams as generic models of flexible space structures. It is shown how finite element codes may be used directly to calculate transfer function zeros. The impulse response predicted by finite-dimensional models is compared with the exact impulse response predicted by the infinite dimensional models. It is shown that some flexible structures behave as if there were a direct transmission between actuator and sensor (equal numbers of zeros and poles in the transfer function). Finally, natural damping models for a vibrating beam are investigated since natural damping has a strong influence on the appropriate active control logic for a flexible structure.

Developing a novel hierarchical approach for multiscale structural reliability predictions for ultra-high consequence applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Emery, John M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Coffin, Peter [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robbins, Brian A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Carroll, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Field, Richard V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeremy Yoo, Yung Suk [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kacher, Josh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-09-01

Microstructural variabilities are among the predominant sources of uncertainty in structural performance and reliability. We seek to develop efficient algorithms for multiscale calcu- lations for polycrystalline alloys such as aluminum alloy 6061-T6 in environments where ductile fracture is the dominant failure mode. Our approach employs concurrent multiscale methods, but does not focus on their development. They are a necessary but not sufficient ingredient to multiscale reliability predictions. We have focused on how to efficiently use concurrent models for forward propagation because practical applications cannot include fine-scale details throughout the problem domain due to exorbitant computational demand. Our approach begins with a low-fidelity prediction at the engineering scale that is sub- sequently refined with multiscale simulation. The results presented in this report focus on plasticity and damage at the meso-scale, efforts to expedite Monte Carlo simulation with mi- crostructural considerations, modeling aspects regarding geometric representation of grains and second-phase particles, and contrasting algorithms for scale coupling.

Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia.

Science.gov (United States)

Zawawi, Khalid H; Afify, Ahmed R; Yousef, Mohammed K; Othman, Hisham I; Al-Dharrab, Ayman A

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students' practical performance. Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (Pdidactic scores (Pdidactic and practical scores for all subjects. Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students' practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading.

Fast and anisotropic flexibility-rigidity index for protein flexibility and fluctuation analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Opron, Kristopher [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Xia, Kelin [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Wei, Guo-Wei, E-mail: wei@math.msu.edu [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)

2014-06-21

Protein structural fluctuation, typically measured by Debye-Waller factors, or B-factors, is a manifestation of protein flexibility, which strongly correlates to protein function. The flexibility-rigidity index (FRI) is a newly proposed method for the construction of atomic rigidity functions required in the theory of continuum elasticity with atomic rigidity, which is a new multiscale formalism for describing excessively large biomolecular systems. The FRI method analyzes protein rigidity and flexibility and is capable of predicting protein B-factors without resorting to matrix diagonalization. A fundamental assumption used in the FRI is that protein structures are uniquely determined by various internal and external interactions, while the protein functions, such as stability and flexibility, are solely determined by the structure. As such, one can predict protein flexibility without resorting to the protein interaction Hamiltonian. Consequently, bypassing the matrix diagonalization, the original FRI has a computational complexity of O(N{sup 2}). This work introduces a fast FRI (fFRI) algorithm for the flexibility analysis of large macromolecules. The proposed fFRI further reduces the computational complexity to O(N). Additionally, we propose anisotropic FRI (aFRI) algorithms for the analysis of protein collective dynamics. The aFRI algorithms permit adaptive Hessian matrices, from a completely global 3N × 3N matrix to completely local 3 × 3 matrices. These 3 × 3 matrices, despite being calculated locally, also contain non-local correlation information. Eigenvectors obtained from the proposed aFRI algorithms are able to demonstrate collective motions. Moreover, we investigate the performance of FRI by employing four families of radial basis correlation functions. Both parameter optimized and parameter-free FRI methods are explored. Furthermore, we compare the accuracy and efficiency of FRI with some established approaches to flexibility analysis, namely

Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Mark Jay

551. For the same reasons, the predicted and actual fatigue performance did not correlate well. The results of this study should not be considered a limitation of the life prediction algorithm but emphasize the requirement that ceramics be homogeneous and strength-limiting flaws uniformly distributed as a perquisite for accurate life prediction and reliability analyses.

HPOTP low-speed flexible rotor balancing, phase 1

Science.gov (United States)

Giordano, J.; Zorzi, E.

1985-01-01

A method was developed that shows promise in overcoming many balancing limitations. This method establishes one or more windows for low speed, out-of-housing balancing of flexible rotors. These windows are regions of speed and support flexibility where two conditions are simultaneously fulfilled. First, the rotor system behaves flexibly; therefore, there is separation among balance planes. Second, the response due to balance weights is large enough to reliably measure. The analytic formulation of the low-speed flexible rotor balancing method is described. The results of proof-of-principle tests conducted under the program are presented. Based on this effort, it is concluded that low speed flexible rotor balancing is a viable technology. In particular, the method can be used to balance a rotor bearing system at low speed which results in smooth operation above more than one bending critical speed. Furthermore, this balancing methodology is applicable to SSME turbopump rotors.

Cognitive flexibility in young children: General or task-specific capacity?

Science.gov (United States)

Deák, Gedeon O; Wiseheart, Melody

2015-10-01

Cognitive flexibility is the ability to adapt to changing tasks or problems. To test whether cognitive flexibility is a coherent cognitive capacity in young children, we tested 3- to 5-year-olds' performance on two forms of task switching, rule-based (Three Dimension Changes Card Sorting, 3DCCS) and inductive (Flexible Induction of Meaning-Animates and Objects, FIM-Ob and FIM-An), as well as tests of response speed, verbal working memory, inhibition, and reasoning. Results suggest that cognitive flexibility is not a globally coherent trait; only the two inductive word-meaning (FIM) tests showed high inter-test coherence. Task- and knowledge-specific factors also determine children's flexibility in a given test. Response speed, vocabulary size, and causal reasoning skills further predicted individual and age differences in flexibility, although they did not have the same predictive relation with all three flexibility tests. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao Weixian

2000-03-01

Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS)

OpenAIRE

Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

2012-01-01

Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to cri...

The 6-min push test is reliable and predicts low fitness in spinal cord injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Cowan, Rachel E; Callahan, Morgan K; Nash, Mark S

2012-10-01

The objective of this study is to assess 6-min push test (6MPT) reliability, determine whether the 6MPT is sensitive to fitness differences, and assess if 6MPT distance predicts fitness level in persons with spinal cord injury (SCI) or disease. Forty individuals with SCI who could self-propel a manual wheelchair completed an incremental arm crank peak oxygen consumption assessment and two 6MPTs across 3 d (37% tetraplegia (TP), 63% paraplegia (PP), 85% men, 70% white, 63% Hispanic, mean age = 34 ± 10 yr, mean duration of injury = 13 ± 10 yr, and mean body mass index = 24 ± 5 kg.m). Intraclass correlation and Bland-Altman plots assessed 6MPT distance (m) reliability. Mann-Whitney U test compared 6MPT distance (m) of high and low fitness groups for TP and PP. The fitness status prediction was developed using N = 30 and validated in N = 10 (validation group (VG)). A nonstatistical prediction approach, below or above a threshold distance (TP = 445 m and PP = 604 m), was validated statistically by binomial logistic regression. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were computed to evaluate the threshold approach. Intraclass correlation coefficients exceeded 0.90 for the whole sample and the TP/PP subsets. High fitness persons propelled farther than low fitness persons for both TP/PP (both P < 0.05). Binomial logistic regression (P < 0.008) predicted the same fitness levels in the VG as the threshold approach. In the VG, overall accuracy was 70%. Eighty-six percent of low fitness persons were correctly identified (sensitivity), and 33% of high fitness persons were correctly identified (specificity). The 6MPT may be a useful tool for SCI clinicians and researchers. 6MPT distance demonstrates excellent reliability and is sensitive to differences in fitness level. 6MPT distances less than a threshold distance may be an effective approach to identify low fitness in person with SCI.

Flexible NAND-Like Organic Ferroelectric Memory Array

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kam, B.; Ke, T.H.; Chasin, A.; Tyagi, M.; Cristoferi, C.; Tempelaars, K.; Breemen, A.J.J.M. van; Myny, K.; Schols, S.; Genoe, J.; Gelinck, G.H.; Heremans, P.

2014-01-01

We present a memory array of organic ferroelectric field-effect transistors (OFeFETs) on flexible substrates. The OFeFETs are connected serially, similar to the NAND architecture of flash memory, which offers the highest memory density of transistor memories. We demonstrate a reliable addressing

Flexible and Stretchable Microneedle Patches with Integrated Rigid Stainless Steel Microneedles for Transdermal Biointerfacing.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, Mina; Roxhed, Niclas; Shafagh, Reza Zandi; Haraldson, Tommy; Fischer, Andreas Christin; Wijngaart, Wouter van der; Stemme, Göran; Niklaus, Frank

2016-01-01

This paper demonstrates flexible and stretchable microneedle patches that combine soft and flexible base substrates with hard and sharp stainless steel microneedles. An elastomeric polymer base enables conformal contact between the microneedle patch and the complex topography and texture of the underlying skin, while robust and sharp stainless steel microneedles reliably pierce the outer layers of the skin. The flexible microneedle patches have been realized by magnetically assembling short stainless steel microneedles into a flexible polymer supporting base. In our experimental investigation, the microneedle patches were applied to human skin and an excellent adaptation of the patch to the wrinkles and deformations of the skin was verified, while at the same time the microneedles reliably penetrate the surface of the skin. The unobtrusive flexible and stretchable microneedle patches have great potential for transdermal biointerfacing in a variety of emerging applications such as transdermal drug delivery, bioelectric treatments and wearable bio-electronics for health and fitness monitoring.

Comparison of ICEPEL predictions with single elbow flexible piping system experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A-Moneim, M.T.; Chang, Y.W.

1978-01-01

The ICEPEL Code for coupled hydrodynamic-structural response analysis of piping systems is used to analyze an experiment on the response of flexible piping systems to internal pressure pulses. The piping system consisted of two flexible Nickel-200 pipes connected in series through a 90 0 thick-walled stainless steel elbow. A tailored pressure pulse generated by a calibrated pulse gun is stabilized in a long thick-walled stainless steel pipe leading to the flexible piping system which ended with a heavy blind flange. The analytical results of pressure and circumferential strain histories are discussed and compared against the experimental data obtained by Stanford Research Institute

Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chou, Jui-Sheng; Le, Thanh-Son

2011-01-01

Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: →A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. → Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. → A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. → The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chou, Jui-Sheng, E-mail: jschou@mail.ntust.edu.tw [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Le, Thanh-Son [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)

2011-10-15

Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: > A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. > Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. > A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. > The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koukoura, Christina

To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

Development and validation of the Japanese version of cognitive flexibility scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Oshiro, Keiko; Nagaoka, Sawako; Shimizu, Eiji

2016-05-17

Various instruments have been developed to assess cognitive flexibility, which is an important construct in psychology. Among these, the self-report cognitive flexibility scale (CFS) is particularly popular for use with English speakers; however, there is not yet a Japanese version of this scale. This study reports on the development of a Japanese version of the cognitive flexibility scale (CFS-J), and the assessment of its internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and validities. We used the standard translation-back-translation process to develop the Japanese wording of the items and tested these using a sample of 335 eligible participants who did not have a mental illness, were aged 18 years or older, and lived in the suburbs of Tokyo. Participants included office workers, public servants, and college students; 71.6 % were women and 64.8 % were students. The translated scale's internal consistency reliability was assessed by calculating Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega, and test-retest reliability was assessed with 107 eligible participants via intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and Spearman's correlation of coefficient. Exploratory factory analysis (EFA) and correlations with other scales were used to examine the factor-based and concurrent validities of the CFS-J. Results indicated that the CFS-J has good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.847, McDonald's omega = 0.871) and acceptable test-retest reliability (Spearman's = 0.687, ICC = 0.689). EFA provided evidence that the CFS-J has a one-factor structure and factor loadings were generally appropriate. The total CFS-J score was significantly and positively correlated with the cognitive flexibility inventory-Japanese version and its two subscales, along with the cognitive control scale and the positive subscale of the short Japanese version of the automatic thought questionnaire-revised (ATQ-R); further, it had a significantly negative correlation with the negative subscale

Flexible heat pipes with integrated bioinspired design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chao Yang

2015-02-01

Full Text Available In this work we report the facile fabrication and performance evaluation of flexible heat pipes that have integrated bioinspired wick structures and flexible polyurethane polymer connector design between the copper condenser and evaporator. Inside the heat pipe, a bioinspired superhydrophilic strong-base-oxidized copper mesh with multi-scale micro/nano-structures was used as the wicking material and deionized water was selected as working fluid. Thermal resistances of the fabricated flexible heat pipes charged with different filling ratios were measured under thermal power inputs ranging from 2 W to 12 W while the device was bent at different angles. The fabricated heat pipes with a 30% filling ratio demonstrated a low thermal resistance less than 0.01 K/W. Compared with the vertically oriented straight heat pipes, bending from 30° up to 120° has negligible influence on the heat-transfer performance. Furthermore, repeated heating tests indicated that the fabricated flexible heat pipes have consistent and reliable heat-transfer performance, thus would have important applications for advanced thermal management in three dimensional and flexible electronic devices.

Flexible Organic Electronics in Biology: Materials and Devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Caizhi; Zhang, Meng; Yao, Mei Yu; Hua, Tao; Li, Li; Yan, Feng

2015-12-09

At the convergence of organic electronics and biology, organic bioelectronics attracts great scientific interest. The potential applications of organic semiconductors to reversibly transmit biological signals or stimulate biological tissues inspires many research groups to explore the use of organic electronics in biological systems. Considering the surfaces of movable living tissues being arbitrarily curved at physiological environments, the flexibility of organic bioelectronic devices is of paramount importance in enabling stable and reliable performances by improving the contact and interaction of the devices with biological systems. Significant advances in flexible organic bio-electronics have been achieved in the areas of flexible organic thin film transistors (OTFTs), polymer electrodes, smart textiles, organic electrochemical ion pumps (OEIPs), ion bipolar junction transistors (IBJTs) and chemiresistors. This review will firstly discuss the materials used in flexible organic bioelectronics, which is followed by an overview on various types of flexible organic bioelectronic devices. The versatility of flexible organic bioelectronics promises a bright future for this emerging area. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Gravure printing of graphene for large-area flexible electronics.

Science.gov (United States)

Secor, Ethan B; Lim, Sooman; Zhang, Heng; Frisbie, C Daniel; Francis, Lorraine F; Hersam, Mark C

2014-07-09

Gravure printing of graphene is demonstrated for the rapid production of conductive patterns on flexible substrates. Development of suitable inks and printing parameters enables the fabrication of patterns with a resolution down to 30 μm. A mild annealing step yields conductive lines with high reliability and uniformity, providing an efficient method for the integration of graphene into large-area printed and flexible electronics. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz [Air Force Institute of Technology ul. Księcia Bolesława 6 01-494 Warsaw (Poland)

2016-06-08

The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz

2016-01-01

The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

A flexible Bayesian assessment for the expected impact of data on prediction confidence for optimal sampling designs

Science.gov (United States)

Leube, Philipp; Geiges, Andreas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2010-05-01

Incorporating hydrogeological data, such as head and tracer data, into stochastic models of subsurface flow and transport helps to reduce prediction uncertainty. Considering limited financial resources available for the data acquisition campaign, information needs towards the prediction goal should be satisfied in a efficient and task-specific manner. For finding the best one among a set of design candidates, an objective function is commonly evaluated, which measures the expected impact of data on prediction confidence, prior to their collection. An appropriate approach to this task should be stochastically rigorous, master non-linear dependencies between data, parameters and model predictions, and allow for a wide variety of different data types. Existing methods fail to fulfill all these requirements simultaneously. For this reason, we introduce a new method, denoted as CLUE (Cross-bred Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator), that derives the essential distributions and measures of data utility within a generalized, flexible and accurate framework. The method makes use of Bayesian GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator) and extends it to an optimal design method by marginalizing over the yet unknown data values. Operating in a purely Bayesian Monte-Carlo framework, CLUE is a strictly formal information processing scheme free of linearizations. It provides full flexibility associated with the type of measurements (linear, non-linear, direct, indirect) and accounts for almost arbitrary sources of uncertainty (e.g. heterogeneity, geostatistical assumptions, boundary conditions, model concepts) via stochastic simulation and Bayesian model averaging. This helps to minimize the strength and impact of possible subjective prior assumptions, that would be hard to defend prior to data collection. Our study focuses on evaluating two different uncertainty measures: (i) expected conditional variance and (ii) expected relative entropy of a given prediction goal. The

Aeroelastic Analysis of a Flexible Wing Wind Tunnel Model with Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap Design

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Nhan; Ting, Eric; Lebofsky, Sonia

2015-01-01

, the lift prediction for the rigid wing is in good agreement with the estimated lift coefficients derived from the wind tunnel test data. Due to the movement of the VCCTEF during the wind tunnel test, uncertainty in the lift prediction due to the indicated variations of the VCCTEF deflection is studied. The results show a significant spread in the lift prediction which contradicts the consistency in the aerodynamic measurements, thus suggesting that the indicated variations as measured by the VICON system may not be reliable. The lift prediction of the flexible wing agrees very well with the measured lift curve for the baseline configuration. The computed bending deflection and wash-out twist of the flexible wing also match reasonably well with the aeroelastic deflection measurements. The results demonstrate the validity of the aerodynamic-structural tool for use to analyze aerodynamic performance of flexible wings.

An overview of the IAEA Safety Series on procedures for evaluating the reliability of predictions made by environmental transfer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.W.; Hofer, E.

1987-10-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing a Safety Series publication on practical approaches for evaluating the reliability of the predictions made by environmental radiological assessment models. This publication identifies factors that affect the reliability of these predictions and discusses methods for quantifying uncertainty. Emphasis is placed on understanding the quantity of interest specified by the assessment question and distinguishing between stochastic variability and lack of knowledge about either the true value or the true distribution of values for quantity of interest. Among the many approaches discussed, model testing using independent data sets (model validation) is considered the best method for evaluating the accuracy in model predictions. Analytical and numerical methods for propagating the uncertainties in model parameters are presented and the strengths and weaknesses of model intercomparison exercises are also discussed. It is recognized that subjective judgment is employed throughout the entire modelling process, and quantitative reliability statements must be subjectively obtained when models are applied to different situations from those under which they have been tested. (6 refs.)

Sources of Operational Flexibility, Greening the Grid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Katz, Jessica; Milligan, Michael; Cochran, Jaquelin

2015-05-01

Changes in electricity demand and generation must be constantly balanced to maintain power system stability and reliability. Operational flexibility refers to the ability of a power system to respond to these changes. Power systems are designed and operated to efficiently manage variability and uncertainty in electricity demand and resource availability. Variable renewable energy (VRE) increases this inherent variability and uncertainty, and thus increases the need for flexibility. Systems with significant variability and uncertainty require flexible generators that can rapidly change output, operate efficiently at lower outputs, and operate for short durations. This flexibility in turn can reduce the need to curtail (decrease the output of) solar and wind generation; improve investor confidence in VRE and revenue streams; decrease the risk of negative market pricing (which results when conventional generators cannot turn down to low outputs during times of high VRE output); and reduce environmental impacts by increasing system efficiency and maximizing the utilization of VRE.

Efficient Skin Temperature Sensor and Stable Gel-Less Sticky ECG Sensor for a Wearable Flexible Healthcare Patch.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, Yuki; Yamamoto, Daisuke; Takada, Makoto; Naito, Hiroyoshi; Arie, Takayuki; Akita, Seiji; Takei, Kuniharu

2017-09-01

Wearable, flexible healthcare devices, which can monitor health data to predict and diagnose disease in advance, benefit society. Toward this future, various flexible and stretchable sensors as well as other components are demonstrated by arranging materials, structures, and processes. Although there are many sensor demonstrations, the fundamental characteristics such as the dependence of a temperature sensor on film thickness and the impact of adhesive for an electrocardiogram (ECG) sensor are yet to be explored in detail. In this study, the effect of film thickness for skin temperature measurements, adhesive force, and reliability of gel-less ECG sensors as well as an integrated real-time demonstration is reported. Depending on the ambient conditions, film thickness strongly affects the precision of skin temperature measurements, resulting in a thin flexible film suitable for a temperature sensor in wearable device applications. Furthermore, by arranging the material composition, stable gel-less sticky ECG electrodes are realized. Finally, real-time simultaneous skin temperature and ECG signal recordings are demonstrated by attaching an optimized device onto a volunteer's chest. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Reliability: How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction, the (net) present value of reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleh, J.H.; Marais, K.

2006-01-01

In this article, we link an engineering concept, reliability, to a financial and managerial concept, net present value, by exploring the impact of a system's reliability on its revenue generation capability. The framework here developed for non-repairable systems quantitatively captures the value of reliability from a financial standpoint. We show that traditional present value calculations of engineering systems do not account for system reliability, thus over-estimate a system's worth and can therefore lead to flawed investment decisions. It is therefore important to involve reliability engineers upfront before investment decisions are made in technical systems. In addition, the analyses here developed help designers identify the optimal level of reliability that maximizes a system's net present value-the financial value reliability provides to the system minus the cost to achieve this level of reliability. Although we recognize that there are numerous considerations driving the specification of an engineering system's reliability, we contend that the financial analysis of reliability here developed should be made available to decision-makers to support in part, or at least be factored into, the system reliability specification

Free form CMOS electronics: Physically flexible and stretchable

KAUST Repository

Hussain, Muhammad Mustafa

2015-12-07

Free form (physically flexible and stretchable) electronics can be used for applications which are unexplored today due to the rigid and brittle nature of the state-of-the-art electronics. Therefore, we show integration strategy to rationally design materials, processes and devices to transform advanced complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) electronics into flexible and stretchable one while retaining their high performance, energy efficiency, ultra-large-scale-integration (ULSI) density, reliability and performance over cost benefit to expand its applications for wearable, implantable and Internet-of-Everything electronics.

Flexible power delivery system and its intelligent functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glamochanin, Vlastimir; Andonov, Dragan

1996-01-01

This paper presents some of the features and capabilities of the novel energy distribution system called FRIENDS. The main FRIENDS objective is distribution system reliability, with flexible system structure reconfiguration, inclusion of dispersed energy generation systems. Altogether, it represents a new concept of reliable and economic electric power delivery to end users. The FRIENDS project is a challenge for future research and development, including new technology and devices for the implementation of such an integrated system. (author)

How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

2015-01-01

While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

Directly Printable Flexible Strain Sensors for Bending and Contact Feedback of Soft Actuators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khaled Elgeneidy

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a fully printable sensorized bending actuator that can be calibrated to provide reliable bending feedback and simple contact detection. A soft bending actuator following a pleated morphology, as well as a flexible resistive strain sensor, were directly 3D printed using easily accessible FDM printer hardware with a dual-extrusion tool head. The flexible sensor was directly welded to the bending actuator’s body and systematically tested to characterize and evaluate its response under variable input pressure. A signal conditioning circuit was developed to enhance the quality of the sensory feedback, and flexible conductive threads were used for wiring. The sensorized actuator’s response was then calibrated using a vision system to convert the sensory readings to real bending angle values. The empirical relationship was derived using linear regression and validated at untrained input conditions to evaluate its accuracy. Furthermore, the sensorized actuator was tested in a constrained setup that prevents bending, to evaluate the potential of using the same sensor for simple contact detection by comparing the constrained and free-bending responses at the same input pressures. The results of this work demonstrated how a dual-extrusion FDM printing process can be tuned to directly print highly customizable flexible strain sensors that were able to provide reliable bending feedback and basic contact detection. The addition of such sensing capability to bending actuators enhances their functionality and reliability for applications such as controlled soft grasping, flexible wearables, and haptic devices.

Software reliability studies

Science.gov (United States)

Hoppa, Mary Ann; Wilson, Larry W.

1994-01-01

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Our research has shown that by improving the quality of the data one can greatly improve the predictions. We are working on methodologies which control some of the randomness inherent in the standard data generation processes in order to improve the accuracy of predictions. Our contribution is twofold in that we describe an experimental methodology using a data structure called the debugging graph and apply this methodology to assess the robustness of existing models. The debugging graph is used to analyze the effects of various fault recovery orders on the predictive accuracy of several well-known software reliability algorithms. We found that, along a particular debugging path in the graph, the predictive performance of different models can vary greatly. Similarly, just because a model 'fits' a given path's data well does not guarantee that the model would perform well on a different path. Further we observed bug interactions and noted their potential effects on the predictive process. We saw that not only do different faults fail at different rates, but that those rates can be affected by the particular debugging stage at which the rates are evaluated. Based on our experiment, we conjecture that the accuracy of a reliability prediction is affected by the fault recovery order as well as by fault interaction.

Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

1987-01-01

There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

Reliability of Health-Related Physical Fitness Tests among Colombian Children and Adolescents: The FUPRECOL Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robinson Ramírez-Vélez

Full Text Available Substantial evidence indicates that youth physical fitness levels are an important marker of lifestyle and cardio-metabolic health profiles and predict future risk of chronic diseases. The reliability physical fitness tests have not been explored in Latino-American youth population. This study's aim was to examine the reliability of health-related physical fitness tests that were used in the Colombian health promotion "Fuprecol study". Participants were 229 Colombian youth (boys n = 124 and girls n = 105 aged 9 to 17.9 years old. Five components of health-related physical fitness were measured: 1 morphological component: height, weight, body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, triceps skinfold, subscapular skinfold, and body fat (% via impedance; 2 musculoskeletal component: handgrip and standing long jump test; 3 motor component: speed/agility test (4x10 m shuttle run; 4 flexibility component (hamstring and lumbar extensibility, sit-and-reach test; 5 cardiorespiratory component: 20-meter shuttle-run test (SRT to estimate maximal oxygen consumption. The tests were performed two times, 1 week apart on the same day of the week, except for the SRT which was performed only once. Intra-observer technical errors of measurement (TEMs and inter-rater (reliability were assessed in the morphological component. Reliability for the Musculoskeletal, motor and cardiorespiratory fitness components was examined using Bland-Altman tests. For the morphological component, TEMs were small and reliability was greater than 95% of all cases. For the musculoskeletal, motor, flexibility and cardiorespiratory components, we found adequate reliability patterns in terms of systematic errors (bias and random error (95% limits of agreement. When the fitness assessments were performed twice, the systematic error was nearly 0 for all tests, except for the sit and reach (mean difference: -1.03% [95% CI = -4.35% to -2.28%]. The results from this study indicate that the

RTE - Reliability report 2016

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-06-01

Every year, RTE produces a reliability report for the past year. This document lays out the main factors that affected the electrical power system's operational reliability in 2016 and the initiatives currently under way intended to ensure its reliability in the future. Within a context of the energy transition, changes to the European interconnected network mean that RTE has to adapt on an on-going basis. These changes include the increase in the share of renewables injecting an intermittent power supply into networks, resulting in a need for flexibility, and a diversification in the numbers of stakeholders operating in the energy sector and changes in the ways in which they behave. These changes are dramatically changing the structure of the power system of tomorrow and the way in which it will operate - particularly the way in which voltage and frequency are controlled, as well as the distribution of flows, the power system's stability, the level of reserves needed to ensure supply-demand balance, network studies, assets' operating and control rules, the tools used and the expertise of operators. The results obtained in 2016 are evidence of a globally satisfactory level of reliability for RTE's operations in somewhat demanding circumstances: more complex supply-demand balance management, cross-border schedules at interconnections indicating operation that is closer to its limits and - most noteworthy - having to manage a cold spell just as several nuclear power plants had been shut down. In a drive to keep pace with the changes expected to occur in these circumstances, RTE implemented numerous initiatives to ensure high levels of reliability: - maintaining investment levels of euro 1.5 billion per year; - increasing cross-zonal capacity at borders with our neighbouring countries, thus bolstering the security of our electricity supply; - implementing new mechanisms (demand response, capacity mechanism, interruptibility, etc.); - involvement in tests or projects

A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, B.; Xie, M.

2000-01-01

Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated

Reliability-Weighted Integration of Audiovisual Signals Can Be Modulated by Top-down Attention

Science.gov (United States)

Noppeney, Uta

2018-01-01

Abstract Behaviorally, it is well established that human observers integrate signals near-optimally weighted in proportion to their reliabilities as predicted by maximum likelihood estimation. Yet, despite abundant behavioral evidence, it is unclear how the human brain accomplishes this feat. In a spatial ventriloquist paradigm, participants were presented with auditory, visual, and audiovisual signals and reported the location of the auditory or the visual signal. Combining psychophysics, multivariate functional MRI (fMRI) decoding, and models of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), we characterized the computational operations underlying audiovisual integration at distinct cortical levels. We estimated observers’ behavioral weights by fitting psychometric functions to participants’ localization responses. Likewise, we estimated the neural weights by fitting neurometric functions to spatial locations decoded from regional fMRI activation patterns. Our results demonstrate that low-level auditory and visual areas encode predominantly the spatial location of the signal component of a region’s preferred auditory (or visual) modality. By contrast, intraparietal sulcus forms spatial representations by integrating auditory and visual signals weighted by their reliabilities. Critically, the neural and behavioral weights and the variance of the spatial representations depended not only on the sensory reliabilities as predicted by the MLE model but also on participants’ modality-specific attention and report (i.e., visual vs. auditory). These results suggest that audiovisual integration is not exclusively determined by bottom-up sensory reliabilities. Instead, modality-specific attention and report can flexibly modulate how intraparietal sulcus integrates sensory signals into spatial representations to guide behavioral responses (e.g., localization and orienting). PMID:29527567

Pocket Handbook on Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

1975-09-01

exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

A Flexible Stretchable Hydrogel Electrolyte for Healable All-in-One Configured Supercapacitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Ying; Zheng, Kaiqiang; Wan, Pengbo

2018-04-01

The development of integrated high-performance supercapacitors with all-in-one configuration, excellent flexibility and autonomously intrinsic self-healability, and without the extra healable film layers, is still tremendously challenging. Compared to the sandwich-like laminated structures of supercapacitors with augmented interfacial contact resistance, the flexible healable integrated supercapacitor with all-in-one structure could theoretically improve their interfacial contact resistance and energy densities, simplify the tedious device assembly process, prolong the lifetime, and avoid the displacement and delamination of multilayered configurations under deformations. Herein, a flexible healable all-in-one configured supercapacitor with excellent flexibility and reliable self-healing ability by avoiding the extra healable film substrates and the postassembled sandwich-like laminated structures is developed. The healable all-in-one configured supercapacitor is prepared from in situ polymerization and deposition of nanocomposites electrode materials onto the two-sided faces of the self-healing hydrogel electrolyte separator. The self-healing hydrogel film is obtained from the physically crosslinked hydrogel with enormous hydrogen bonds, which can endow the healable capability through dynamic hydrogen bonding. The assembled all-in-one configured supercapacitor exhibits enhanced capacitive performance, good cycling stability, reliable self-healing capability, and excellent flexibility. It holds broad prospects for obtaining various flexible healable all-in-one configured supercapacitors for working as portable energy storage devices in wearable electronics. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Very Thin Flexible Coupled Inductors for PV Module Integrated GaN Converter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acanski, Milos; Ouyang, Ziwei; Popovic-Gerber, Jelena

2012-01-01

converter integrated directly into a low cost flexible PV module. Additional problems arise in this case, specifically in magnetics design, due to the requirements for very low profile flexible construction and limited thermal headroom. Overcoming these limitations presents a challenge, but can lead...... to a cost effective, reliable solution for PV systems with improved integration level and power density....

Reliability and Lifetime Prediction of Remote Phosphor Plates in Solid-State Lighting Applications Using Accelerated Degradation Testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yazdan Mehr, M.; van Driel, W.D.; Zhang, G.Q.

2015-01-01

A methodology, based on accelerated degradation testing, is developed to predict the lifetime of remote phosphor plates used in solid-state lighting (SSL) applications. Both thermal stress and light intensity are used to accelerate degradation reaction in remote phosphor plates. A reliability model,

Reliability of Power Electronic Converter Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

-link capacitance in power electronic converter systems; wind turbine systems; smart control strategies for improved reliability of power electronics system; lifetime modelling; power module lifetime test and state monitoring; tools for performance and reliability analysis of power electronics systems; fault...... for advancing the reliability, availability, system robustness, and maintainability of PECS at different levels of complexity. Drawing on the experience of an international team of experts, this book explores the reliability of PECS covering topics including an introduction to reliability engineering in power...... electronic converter systems; anomaly detection and remaining-life prediction for power electronics; reliability of DC-link capacitors in power electronic converters; reliability of power electronics packaging; modeling for life-time prediction of power semiconductor modules; minimization of DC...

Flexible eddy current coil arrays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krampfner, Y.; Johnson, D.P.

1987-01-01

A novel approach was devised to overcome certain limitations of conventional eddy current testing. The typical single-element hand-wound probe was replaced with a two dimensional array of spirally wound probe elements deposited on a thin, flexible polyimide substrate. This provides full and reliable coverage of the test area and eliminates the need for scanning. The flexible substrate construction of the array allows the probes to conform to irregular part geometries, such as turbine blades and tubing, thereby eliminating the need for specialized probes for each geometry. Additionally, the batch manufacturing process of the array can yield highly uniform and reproducible coil geometries. The array is driven by a portable computer-based eddy current instrument, smartEDDY/sup TM/, capable of two-frequency operation, and offers a great deal of versatility and flexibility due to its software-based architecture. The array is coupled to the instrument via an 80-switch multiplexer that can be configured to address up to 1600 probes. The individual array elements may be addressed in any desired sequence, as defined by the software

Child Temperamental Flexibility Moderates the Relation between Positive Parenting and Adolescent Adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

Rabinowitz, Jill A.; Drabick, Deborah A.G.; Reynolds, Maureen D.; Clark, Duncan B.; Olino, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Temperamental flexibility and lower positive parenting are associated with internalizing and externalizing problems; however, youth varying in flexibility may be differentially affected by positive parenting in the prediction of symptoms. We examined whether children's flexibility moderated prospective relations between maternal and paternal positive parenting and youth internalizing and externalizing symptoms during adolescence. Participants (N =775, 71% male) and their caregivers completed measures when youth were 10-12 and 12-14 years old. Father positive parenting interacted with child flexibility to predict father-reported internalizing and externalizing problems. Consistent with the diathesis-stress model, children lower in flexibility experienced greater symptoms than children higher in flexibility in lower positive parenting contexts. Among children lower in flexibility, lower paternal positive parenting was associated with greater internalizing and externalizing symptoms compared to higher paternal positive parenting. However, among youth higher in flexibility, symptom levels were similar regardless of whether youth experienced lower or higher paternal positive parenting. PMID:26834305

How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Wilker

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Background: While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. Methods: We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. Results: All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. Conclusions: As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

LED system reliability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.

2011-01-01

This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific

Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS).

Science.gov (United States)

Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

2012-10-01

Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to criminal justice system involvement, self-report measures of aggression, impulsivity, and lack of empathy. Additionally, the CCS was associated with violent criminal history, antisocial personality, and clinicians' ratings of risk for future violence and psychopathy (PCL:SV). Furthermore, criminogenic thinking upon incarceration predicted subsequent official reports of inmate misconduct during incarceration. CCS scores varied somewhat by gender and race. Research and applied uses of CCS are discussed.

Design of semi-rigid type of flexible pavements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pranshoo Solanki

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The primary objective of the study presented in this paper is to develop design curves for performance prediction of stabilized layers and to compare semi-rigid flexible pavement designs between the empirical AASHTO 1993 and the mechanistic-empirical pavement design methodologies. Specifically, comparisons were made for a range of different sections consisting of cementitious layers stabilized with different types and percentages of additives. It is found that the design thickness is influenced by the type of soil, additive, selection of material property and design method. Cost comparisons of sections stabilized with different percentage and type of additives showed that CKD-stabilization provides economically low cost sections as compared to lime- and CFA-stabilized sections. Knowledge gained from the parametric analysis of different sections using AASHTO 1993 and MEPDG is expected to be useful to pavement designers and others in implementation of the new MEPDG for future pavement design. Keywords: Semi-rigid, Mechanistic, Resilient modulus, Fatigue life, Reliability, Traffic

A new approach for evaluating flexible working hours.

Science.gov (United States)

Giebel, Ole; Janssen, Daniela; Schomann, Carsten; Nachreiner, Friedhelm

2004-01-01

Recent studies on flexible working hours show at least some of these working time arrangements seem to be associated with impairing effects of health and well-being. According to available evidence, variability of working hours seems to play an important role. The question, however, is how this variability can be assessed and used to explain or predict impairments. Based on earlier methods used to assess shift-work effects, a time series analysis approach was applied to the matter of flexible working hours. Data on the working hours of 4 week's length of 137 respondents derived from a survey on flexible work hours involving 15 companies of different production and service sectors in Germany were converted to time series and analyzed by spectral analysis. A cluster analysis of the resulting power spectra yielded 5 clusters of flexible work hours. Analyzing these clusters for differences in reported impairments showed that workers who showed suppression of circadian and weekly rhythms experienced severest impairments, especially in circadian controlled functions like sleep and digestion. The results thus indicate that analyzing the periodicity of flexible working hours seems to be a promising approach for predicting impairments which should be investigated further in the future.

Empirical models for end-use properties prediction of LDPE: application in the flexible plastic packaging industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Carolina Burgos Costa

2008-03-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work is to develop empirical models to predict end use properties of low density polyethylene (LDPE resins as functions of two intrinsic properties easily measured in the polymers industry. The most important properties for application in the flexible plastic packaging industry were evaluated experimentally for seven commercial polymer grades. Statistical correlation analysis was performed for all variables and used as the basis for proper choice of inputs to each model output. Intrinsic properties selected for resin characterization are fluidity index (FI, which is essentially an indirect measurement of viscosity and weight average molecular weight (MW, and density. In general, models developed are able to reproduce and predict experimental data within experimental accuracy and show that a significant number of end use properties improve as the MW and density increase. Optical properties are mainly determined by the polymer morphology.

Reflow Process Parameters Analysis and Reliability Prediction Considering Multiple Characteristic Values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo Yu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available As a major step surface mount technology, reflow process is the key factor affecting the quality of the final product. The setting parameters and characteristic value of temperature curve shows a nonlinear relationship. So parameter impacts on characteristic values are analyzed and the parameters adjustment process based on orthogonal experiment is proposed in the paper. First, setting parameters are determined and the orthogonal test is designed according to production conditions. Then each characteristic value for temperature profile is calculated. Further, multi-index orthogonal experiment is analyzed for acquiring the setting parameters which impacts the PCBA product quality greater. Finally, reliability prediction is carried out considering the main influencing parameters for providing a theoretical basis of parameters adjustment and product quality evaluation in engineering process.

Efficient Flexible Organic/Inorganic Hybrid Perovskite Light-Emitting Diodes Based on Graphene Anode.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Hong-Kyu; Kim, Hobeom; Lee, Jaeho; Park, Min-Ho; Jeong, Su-Hun; Kim, Young-Hoon; Kwon, Sung-Joo; Han, Tae-Hee; Yoo, Seunghyup; Lee, Tae-Woo

2017-03-01

Highly efficient organic/inorganic hybrid perovskite light-emitting diodes (PeLEDs) based on graphene anode are developed for the first time. Chemically inert graphene avoids quenching of excitons by diffused metal atom species from indium tin oxide. The flexible PeLEDs with graphene anode on plastic substrate show good bending stability; they provide an alternative and reliable flexible electrode for highly efficient flexible PeLEDs. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Reliability of nine programs of topological predictions and their application to integral membrane channel and carrier proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Abhinay; Cho, Jaehoon; Ling, Sam; Reddy, Vamsee; Shlykov, Maksim; Saier, Milton H

2014-01-01

We evaluated topological predictions for nine different programs, HMMTOP, TMHMM, SVMTOP, DAS, SOSUI, TOPCONS, PHOBIUS, MEMSAT-SVM (hereinafter referred to as MEMSAT), and SPOCTOPUS. These programs were first evaluated using four large topologically well-defined families of secondary transporters, and the three best programs were further evaluated using topologically more diverse families of channels and carriers. In the initial studies, the order of accuracy was: SPOCTOPUS > MEMSAT > HMMTOP > TOPCONS > PHOBIUS > TMHMM > SVMTOP > DAS > SOSUI. Some families, such as the Sugar Porter Family (2.A.1.1) of the Major Facilitator Superfamily (MFS; TC #2.A.1) and the Amino Acid/Polyamine/Organocation (APC) Family (TC #2.A.3), were correctly predicted with high accuracy while others, such as the Mitochondrial Carrier (MC) (TC #2.A.29) and the K(+) transporter (Trk) families (TC #2.A.38), were predicted with much lower accuracy. For small, topologically homogeneous families, SPOCTOPUS and MEMSAT were generally most reliable, while with large, more diverse superfamilies, HMMTOP often proved to have the greatest prediction accuracy. We next developed a novel program, TM-STATS, that tabulates HMMTOP, SPOCTOPUS or MEMSAT-based topological predictions for any subdivision (class, subclass, superfamily, family, subfamily, or any combination of these) of the Transporter Classification Database (TCDB; www.tcdb.org) and examined the following subclasses: α-type channel proteins (TC subclasses 1.A and 1.E), secreted pore-forming toxins (TC subclass 1.C) and secondary carriers (subclass 2.A). Histograms were generated for each of these subclasses, and the results were analyzed according to subclass, family and protein. The results provide an update of topological predictions for integral membrane transport proteins as well as guides for the development of more reliable topological prediction programs, taking family-specific characteristics into account. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Field reliability of electronic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elm, T.

1984-02-01

This report investigates, through several examples from the field, the reliability of electronic units in a broader sense. That is, it treats not just random parts failure, but also inadequate reliability design and (externally and internally) induced failures. The report is not meant to be merely an indication of the state of the art for the reliability prediction methods we know, but also as a contribution to the investigation of man-machine interplay in the operation and repair of electronic equipment. The report firmly links electronics reliability to safety and risk analyses approaches with a broader, system oriented view of reliability prediction and with postfailure stress analysis. It is intended to reveal, in a qualitative manner, the existence of symptom and cause patterns. It provides a background for further investigations to identify the detailed mechanisms of the faults and the remedical actions and precautions for achieving cost effective reliability. (author)

Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm ...... controller is shown very reliable keeping the comfort levels in the two considered seasons and shifting the load away from peak hours in order to achieve the desired flexible electricity consumption.......Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...

Improved HEPA Filter Technology for Flexible and Rigid Containment Barriers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinson, Paul Arthur

1998-01-01

Safety and reliability in glovebox operations can be significantly improved and waste packaging efficiencies can be increased by inserting flexible, lightweight, high capacity HEPA filters into the walls of plastic sheet barriers. This HEPA filter/barrier technology can be adapted to a wide variety of applications: disposable waste bags, protective environmental barriers for electronic equipment, single or multiple use glovebag assemblies, flexible glovebox wall elements, and room partitions. These reliable and inexpensive filtered barriers have many uses in fields such as radioactive waste processing, HVAC filter changeout, vapor or grit blasting, asbestos cleanup, pharmaceutical, medical, biological, and electronic equipment containment. The applications can result in significant cost savings, improved operational reliability and safety, and total waste volume reduction. This technology was developed at the Argonne National Laboratory-West (ANL-W) in 1993 and has been used at ANL-W since then at the TRU Waste Characterization Chamber Gloveboxes. Another 1998 AGS Conference paper titled ''TRU Waste Characterization Gloveboxes'', presented by Mr. David Duncan of ANL-W, describes these boxes

Cognitive flexibility and changes in hopelessness across time: A moderation hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Junhong; Lee, Tatia M C

2017-01-01

Prior literature has suggested that cognitive flexibility is implicated in the feeling of hopelessness. However, studies on the nature of their relationship have been scarce. This study posits a moderation hypothesis on the relationship between cognitive flexibility and hopelessness. A total of 78 elderly participants (M age  = 70, SD = 6.1) were administered a self-report measure of hopelessness across two time points approximately 10 months apart and a measure of cognitive flexibility. We hypothesized that baseline hopelessness scores would moderate the relationship between cognitive flexibility and hopelessness scores 10 months later. Specifically, among the high baseline hopelessness group, we predicted that cognitively flexible participants would report lower hopelessness scores 10 months later. However, for the low baseline hopelessness group, cognitive flexibility would be unrelated to hopelessness scores 10 months later. The results of a bootstrapped moderation analysis controlling for age, sex, education, and general cognitive status supported our moderation hypothesis and predictions. These findings reveal the complex nature of the relationship between cognitive flexibility and hopelessness. The implications of these findings in the wider clinical context were discussed.

ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox: An open-source toolbox for analyzing the reliability of event-related brain potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

2017-01-01

Generalizability theory (G theory) provides a flexible, multifaceted approach to estimating score reliability. G theory's approach to estimating score reliability has important advantages over classical test theory that are relevant for research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs). For example, G theory does not require parallel forms (i.e., equal means, variances, and covariances), can handle unbalanced designs, and provides a single reliability estimate for designs with multiple sources of error. This monograph provides a detailed description of the conceptual framework of G theory using examples relevant to ERP researchers, presents the algorithms needed to estimate ERP score reliability, and provides a detailed walkthrough of newly-developed software, the ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox, that calculates score reliability using G theory. The ERA Toolbox is open-source, Matlab software that uses G theory to estimate the contribution of the number of trials retained for averaging, group, and/or event types on ERP score reliability. The toolbox facilitates the rigorous evaluation of psychometric properties of ERP scores recommended elsewhere in this special issue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian nonparametric system reliability using sets of priors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Walter, G.M.; Aslett, L.J.M.; Coolen, F.P.A.

2016-01-01

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through bounds on the functioning probability. Given component level test

Does cognitive flexibility predict treatment gains in Internet-delivered psychological treatment of social anxiety disorder, depression, or tinnitus?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip Lindner

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Little is known about the individual factors that predict outcomes in Internet-administered psychological treatments. We hypothesized that greater cognitive flexibility (i.e. the ability to simultaneously consider several concepts and tasks and switch effortlessly between them in response to changes in environmental contingencies would provide a better foundation for learning and employing the cognitive restructuring techniques taught and exercised in therapy, leading to greater treatment gains. Participants in three trials featuring Internet-administered psychological treatments for depression (n = 36, social anxiety disorder (n = 115 and tinnitus (n = 53 completed the 64-card Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST prior to treatment. We found no significant associations between perseverative errors on the WCST and treatment gains in any group. We also found low accuracy in the classification of treatment responders. We conclude that lower cognitive flexibility, as captured by perseverative errors on the WCST, should not impede successful outcomes in Internet-delivered psychological treatments.

Flexible All-Inorganic Perovskite CsPbBr3 Nonvolatile Memory Device.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Dongjue; Lin, Qiqi; Zang, Zhigang; Wang, Ming; Wangyang, Peihua; Tang, Xiaosheng; Zhou, Miao; Hu, Wei

2017-02-22

All-inorganic perovskite CsPbX 3 (X = Cl, Br, or I) is widely used in a variety of photoelectric devices such as solar cells, light-emitting diodes, lasers, and photodetectors. However, studies to understand the flexible CsPbX 3 electrical application are relatively scarce, mainly due to the limitations of the low-temperature fabricating process. In this study, all-inorganic perovskite CsPbBr 3 films were successfully fabricated at 75 °C through a two-step method. The highly crystallized films were first employed as a resistive switching layer in the Al/CsPbBr 3 /PEDOT:PSS/ITO/PET structure for flexible nonvolatile memory application. The resistive switching operations and endurance performance demonstrated the as-prepared flexible resistive random access memory devices possess reproducible and reliable memory characteristics. Electrical reliability and mechanical stability of the nonvolatile device were further tested by the robust current-voltage curves under different bending angles and consecutive flexing cycles. Moreover, a model of the formation and rupture of filaments through the CsPbBr 3 layer was proposed to explain the resistive switching effect. It is believed that this study will offer a new setting to understand and design all-inorganic perovskite materials for future stable flexible electronic devices.

Using personality item characteristics to predict single-item reliability, retest reliability, and self-other agreement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vries, Reinout Everhard; Realo, Anu; Allik, Jüri

2016-01-01

The use of reliability estimates is increasingly scrutinized as scholars become more aware that test–retest stability and self–other agreement provide a better approximation of the theoretical and practical usefulness of an instrument than its internal reliability. In this study, we investigate item

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

2007-01-01

Reliability has always been a concern in the energy sector, but concerns are escalating as energy demand increases and the political stability of many energy supply regions becomes more questionable. But how does one define and measure reliability? We introduce a method to assess reliability in energy supply systems in terms of adequacy and security. It derives from reliability assessment frameworks developed for the electricity sector, which are extended to include qualitative considerations and to be applicable to new energy systems by incorporating decision-making processes based on expert opinion and multi-attribute utility theory. The method presented here is flexible and can be applied to any energy system. To illustrate its use, we apply the method to two hydrogen pathways: (1) centralized steam reforming of imported liquefied natural gas with pipeline distribution of hydrogen, and (2) on-site electrolysis of water using renewable electricity produced independently from the electricity grid

Reliability-based optimal structural design by the decoupling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Royset, J.O.; Der Kiureghian, A.; Polak, E.

2001-01-01

A decoupling approach for solving optimal structural design problems involving reliability terms in the objective function, the constraint set or both is discussed and extended. The approach employs a reformulation of each problem, in which reliability terms are replaced by deterministic functions. The reformulated problems can be solved by existing semi-infinite optimization algorithms and computational reliability methods. It is shown that the reformulated problems produce solutions that are identical to those of the original problems when the limit-state functions defining the reliability problem are affine. For nonaffine limit-state functions, approximate solutions are obtained by solving series of reformulated problems. An important advantage of the approach is that the required reliability and optimization calculations are completely decoupled, thus allowing flexibility in the choice of the optimization algorithm and the reliability computation method

The effects of human resource flexibility on human resources development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SeidMehdi Veise

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Human resources are the primary factor for development of competitiveness and innovation and reaching competitive advantage and they try to improve corporate capabilities through various characteristics such as value creation, scarcity and difficulty of imitation. This paper investigates the effect of human resource flexibility and its dimensions on human resource development and its dimensions. The survey was conducted using descriptive-correlation method that intended to describe how human resource flexibility was effective on human resource development. Questionnaire was tool of data collection. The statistical population included one hundred employees of the Electric Company in Ilam province, thus census method was used. Reliability of the questionnaire was measured via Cronbach's alpha equal to 0.96. The findings revealed that flexibility and its dimensions were effective on human resource development and dimensions of it. As a result, human resource flexibility should be considered for development of human resources and employees with the highest flexibility should be selected.

Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

Potential Energy Flexibility for a Hot-Water Based Heating System in Smart Buildings Via Economic Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahmed, Awadelrahman M. A.; Zong, Yi; Mihet-Popa, Lucian

2017-01-01

This paper studies the potential of shifting the heating energy consumption in a residential building to low price periods based on varying electricity price signals suing Economic Model Predictive Control strategy. The investigated heating system consists of a heat pump incorporated with a hot...... water tank as active thermal energy storage, where two optimization problems are integrated together to optimize both the heat pump electricity consumption and the building heating consumption. A sensitivity analysis for the system flexibility is examined. The results revealed that the proposed...

Engineering Design Handbook: Development Guide for Reliability. Part Three. Reliability Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

1976-01-01

to t is pa(t)=l-qa(t) (10-6) This is the reliability of being closed, defined for this interval. 2 The probability that a contact viH be open...Monte Carlo simulation. Few people can know all about all available programs. Special- ists can assist in selecting a few from the avail- able many

A critique of reliability prediction techniques for avionics applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guru Prasad PANDIAN

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Avionics (aeronautics and aerospace industries must rely on components and systems of demonstrated high reliability. For this, handbook-based methods have been traditionally used to design for reliability, develop test plans, and define maintenance requirements and sustainment logistics. However, these methods have been criticized as flawed and leading to inaccurate and misleading results. In its recent report on enhancing defense system reliability, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has recently discredited these methods, judging the Military Handbook (MIL-HDBK-217 and its progeny as invalid and inaccurate. This paper discusses the issues that arise with the use of handbook-based methods in commercial and military avionics applications. Alternative approaches to reliability design (and its demonstration are also discussed, including similarity analysis, testing, physics-of-failure, and data analytics for prognostics and systems health management.

Calculation of Flexible Bus-Bars Electrodynamic Stability with Application of Implicit Scheme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. G. Panamarenka

2008-01-01

Full Text Available A numerical method for calculation of open-air substations’ flexible bus-bars dynamic at short-circuit has been improved on equations of a flexible elastic string with application of an implicit scheme. On the basis of the numerical method a computer program FLEBUS for calculation of substations’ flexible bus-bars dynamic at short-circuit has been developed. An approbation and an estimation of calculation result reliability have been carried out in accordance with the program while using experimental data. On the basis of the obtained information it is possible to assert that the developed program is an independent tool for calculation of electrodynamic stability of substations’ flexible bus-bars.

Reliability assessment using Bayesian networks. Case study on quantative reliability estimation of a software-based motor protection relay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helminen, A.; Pulkkinen, U.

2003-06-01

In this report a quantitative reliability assessment of motor protection relay SPAM 150 C has been carried out. The assessment focuses to the methodological analysis of the quantitative reliability assessment using the software-based motor protection relay as a case study. The assessment method is based on Bayesian networks and tries to take the full advantage of the previous work done in a project called Programmable Automation System Safety Integrity assessment (PASSI). From the results and experiences achieved during the work it is justified to claim that the assessment method presented in the work enables a flexible use of qualitative and quantitative elements of reliability related evidence in a single reliability assessment. At the same time the assessment method is a concurrent way of reasoning one's beliefs and references about the reliability of the system. Full advantage of the assessment method is taken when using the method as a way to cultivate the information related to the reliability of software-based systems. The method can also be used as a communicational instrument in a licensing process of software-based systems. (orig.)

Flexible molecular-scale electronic devices composed of diarylethene photoswitching molecules

KAUST Repository

Kim, Dongku; Jeong, Hyunhak; Lee, Hanki; Hwang, Wangtaek; Wolf, Jannic Sebastian; Scheer, Elke; Huhn, Thomas; Jeong, Heejun; Lee, Takhee

2014-01-01

The electrical properties of diarylethene photoswitching molecular devices on flexible substrates are studied. When exposed to UV or visible light, diarylethene molecular devices show two electrical states (a high and a low conductance state) with a discrepancy of an order of magnitude in the level of current between the two states. The diarylethene flexible molecular devices exhibit excellent long-time stability and reliable electrical characteristics in both conductance states when subjected to various mechanical stresses. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Flexible molecular-scale electronic devices composed of diarylethene photoswitching molecules

KAUST Repository

Kim, Dongku

2014-03-31

The electrical properties of diarylethene photoswitching molecular devices on flexible substrates are studied. When exposed to UV or visible light, diarylethene molecular devices show two electrical states (a high and a low conductance state) with a discrepancy of an order of magnitude in the level of current between the two states. The diarylethene flexible molecular devices exhibit excellent long-time stability and reliable electrical characteristics in both conductance states when subjected to various mechanical stresses. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The reliability of knee joint position testing using electrogoniometry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Winter Adele

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The current investigation examined the inter- and intra-tester reliability of knee joint angle measurements using a flexible Penny and Giles Biometric® electrogoniometer. The clinical utility of electrogoniometry was also addressed. Methods The first study examined the inter- and intra-tester reliability of measurements of knee joint angles in supine, sitting and standing in 35 healthy adults. The second study evaluated inter-tester and intra-tester reliability of knee joint angle measurements in standing and after walking 10 metres in 20 healthy adults, using an enhanced measurement protocol with a more detailed electrogoniometer attachment procedure. Both inter-tester reliability studies involved two testers. Results In the first study, inter-tester reliability (ICC[2,10] ranged from 0.58–0.71 in supine, 0.68–0.79 in sitting and 0.57–0.80 in standing. The standard error of measurement between testers was less than 3.55° and the limits of agreement ranged from -12.51° to 12.21°. Reliability coefficients for intra-tester reliability (ICC[3,10] ranged from 0.75–0.76 in supine, 0.86–0.87 in sitting and 0.87–0.88 in standing. The standard error of measurement for repeated measures by the same tester was less than 1.7° and the limits of agreement ranged from -8.13° to 7.90°. The second study showed that using a more detailed electrogoniometer attachment protocol reduced the error of measurement between testers to 0.5°. Conclusion Using a standardised protocol, reliable measures of knee joint angles can be gained in standing, supine and sitting by using a flexible goniometer.

Ternary networks reliability and Monte Carlo

CERN Document Server

Gertsbakh, Ilya; Vaisman, Radislav

2014-01-01

Ternary means “based on three”. This book deals with reliability investigations of  networks whose components subject to failures can be in three states –up, down and middle (mid), contrary to traditionally considered networks  having only binary (up/down) components. Extending binary case to ternary allows to consider more realistic and flexible models for communication, flow and supply networks.

Reliability and validity of the AutoCAD software method in lumbar lordosis measurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Letafatkar, Amir; Amirsasan, Ramin; Abdolvahabi, Zahra; Hadadnezhad, Malihe

2011-12-01

The aim of this study was to determine the reliability and validity of the AutoCAD software method in lumbar lordosis measurement. Fifty healthy volunteers with a mean age of 23 ± 1.80 years were enrolled. A lumbar lateral radiograph was taken on all participants, and the lordosis was measured according to the Cobb method. Afterward, the lumbar lordosis degree was measured via AutoCAD software and flexible ruler methods. The current study is accomplished in 2 parts: intratester and intertester evaluations of reliability as well as the validity of the flexible ruler and software methods. Based on the intraclass correlation coefficient, AutoCAD's reliability and validity in measuring lumbar lordosis were 0.984 and 0.962, respectively. AutoCAD showed to be a reliable and valid method to measure lordosis. It is suggested that this method may replace those that are costly and involve health risks, such as radiography, in evaluating lumbar lordosis.

Behavioral flexibility and problem solving in an invasive bird.

Science.gov (United States)

Logan, Corina J

2016-01-01

Behavioral flexibility is considered an important trait for adapting to environmental change, but it is unclear what it is, how it works, and whether it is a problem solving ability. I investigated behavioral flexibility and problem solving experimentally in great-tailed grackles, an invasive bird species and thus a likely candidate for possessing behavioral flexibility. Grackles demonstrated behavioral flexibility in two contexts, the Aesop's Fable paradigm and a color association test. Contrary to predictions, behavioral flexibility did not correlate across contexts. Four out of 6 grackles exhibited efficient problem solving abilities, but problem solving efficiency did not appear to be directly linked with behavioral flexibility. Problem solving speed also did not significantly correlate with reversal learning scores, indicating that faster learners were not the most flexible. These results reveal how little we know about behavioral flexibility, and provide an immense opportunity for future research to explore how individuals and species can use behavior to react to changing environments.

PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-12-01

The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

Novel Nano-Materials and Nano-Fabrication Techniques for Flexible Electronic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyowon Kang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Recent progress in fabricating flexible electronics has been significantly developed because of the increased interest in flexible electronics, which can be applied to enormous fields, not only conventional in electronic devices, but also in bio/eco-electronic devices. Flexible electronics can be applied to a wide range of fields, such as flexible displays, flexible power storages, flexible solar cells, wearable electronics, and healthcare monitoring devices. Recently, flexible electronics have been attached to the skin and have even been implanted into the human body for monitoring biosignals and for treatment purposes. To improve the electrical and mechanical properties of flexible electronics, nanoscale fabrications using novel nanomaterials are required. Advancements in nanoscale fabrication methods allow the construction of active materials that can be combined with ultrathin soft substrates to form flexible electronics with high performances and reliability. In this review, a wide range of flexible electronic applications via nanoscale fabrication methods, classified as either top-down or bottom-up approaches, including conventional photolithography, soft lithography, nanoimprint lithography, growth, assembly, and chemical vapor deposition (CVD, are introduced, with specific fabrication processes and results. Here, our aim is to introduce recent progress on the various fabrication methods for flexible electronics, based on novel nanomaterials, using application examples of fundamental device components for electronics and applications in healthcare systems.

Inclusion of task dependence in human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Su, Xiaoyan; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Xu, Peida; Deng, Yong

2014-01-01

Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important issue, which includes the evaluation of the dependence among human tasks and the effect of the dependence on the final human error probability (HEP). This paper represents a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. The aim of the study is to automatically provide conclusions on the overall degree of dependence and calculate the conditional human error probability (CHEP) once the judgments of the input factors are given. The dependence influencing factors are first identified by the experts and the priorities of these factors are also taken into consideration. Anchors and qualitative labels are provided as guidance for the HRA analyst's judgment of the input factors. The overall degree of dependence between human failure events is calculated based on the input values and the weights of the input factors. Finally, the CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) method. The proposed method is able to quantify the subjective judgment from the experts and improve the transparency in the HEP evaluation process. Two examples are illustrated to show the effectiveness and the flexibility of the proposed method. - Highlights: • We propose a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. • The priorities of the dependence influencing factors are taken into consideration. • The overall dependence degree is determined by input judgments and the weights of factors. • The CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from THERP

Mapping brain activity with flexible graphene micro-transistors

Science.gov (United States)

Blaschke, Benno M.; Tort-Colet, Núria; Guimerà-Brunet, Anton; Weinert, Julia; Rousseau, Lionel; Heimann, Axel; Drieschner, Simon; Kempski, Oliver; Villa, Rosa; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V.; Garrido, Jose A.

2017-06-01

Establishing a reliable communication interface between the brain and electronic devices is of paramount importance for exploiting the full potential of neural prostheses. Current microelectrode technologies for recording electrical activity, however, evidence important shortcomings, e.g. challenging high density integration. Solution-gated field-effect transistors (SGFETs), on the other hand, could overcome these shortcomings if a suitable transistor material were available. Graphene is particularly attractive due to its biocompatibility, chemical stability, flexibility, low intrinsic electronic noise and high charge carrier mobilities. Here, we report on the use of an array of flexible graphene SGFETs for recording spontaneous slow waves, as well as visually evoked and also pre-epileptic activity in vivo in rats. The flexible array of graphene SGFETs allows mapping brain electrical activity with excellent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), suggesting that this technology could lay the foundation for a future generation of in vivo recording implants.

Increasing body image flexibility in a residential eating disorder facility: Correlates with symptom improvement.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Eric B; Ong, Clarissa W; Twohig, Michael P; Lensegrav-Benson, Tera; Quakenbush-Roberts, Benita

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of changes in body image psychological flexibility over the course of treatment on various outcome variables. Participants included 103 female, residential patients diagnosed with an eating disorder. Pretreatment and posttreatment data were collected that examined body image psychological flexibility, general psychological flexibility, symptom severity, and other outcome variables. Changes in body image psychological flexibility significantly predicted changes in all outcome measures except for obsessive-compulsive symptoms after controlling for body mass index, depression, and anxiety. Additionally, these results were maintained after controlling for general psychological flexibility, contributing to the incremental validity of the BI-AAQ. This study suggests that changes in body image psychological flexibility meaningfully predict changes in various treatment outcomes of interest, including eating disorder risk, quality of life, and general mental health. Findings indicate that body image psychological flexibility might be a viable target for eating disorder treatment.

On the reliability of predictions of geomechanical response - project Cosa in perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knowles, N.C.; Lowe, M.J.S.; Come, B.

1990-01-01

Project COSA (Comparison of computer codes for Salt) was set up by the CEC as international benchmark exercise to compare the reliability of predictions of thermo-mechanical response of HLW repositories in salt. The first phase (COSA I) was conducted between 1984-1986 and attention was directed at code verification issues. The second phase (COSA II), carried out in the period 1986-1988, addressed code validation and other issues. Specifically, a series of experimental heat and pressure tests carried out at the Asse Mine in Wast Germany were modelled and predictions of the thermo-mechanical behaviour were compared. Ten European organisations participated. A key feature of this exercise was that, as far as possible, the calculations were performed blind (i.e. without any knowledge of the observed behaviour) using the best information available a priori, to describe the physical situation to be modelled. Interest centred around the various constitutive models (of material behaviour) for rock-salt and the assumptions about the in situ state of stress. The paper gives an overview of the project, presents some broad conclusions and attempts to assess their significance. 17 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

Cognitive flexibility in preschool children with and without stuttering disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Eichorn, Naomi; Marton, Klara; Pirutinsky, Steven

2017-11-13

Multifactorial explanations of developmental stuttering suggest that difficulties in self-regulation and weak attentional flexibility contribute to persisting stuttering. We tested this prediction by examining whether preschool-age children who stutter (CWS) shift their attention less flexibly than children who do not stutter (CWNS) during a modified version of the Dimension Card Change Sort (DCCS), a reliable measure of attention switching for young children. Sixteen CWS (12 males) and 30 children CWNS (11 males) participated in the study. Groups were matched on age (CWS: M=49.63, SD=10.34, range=38-80months; CWNS: M=50.63, SD=9.82, range=37-74months), cognitive ability, and language skills. All children completed a computer-based variation of the DCCS, in which they matched on-screen bivalent stimuli to response buttons based on rules that switched mid-task. Results showed increased slowing for CWS compared to controls during the postswitch phase, as well as contrasting patterns of speed-accuracy tradeoff for CWS and CWNS as they moved from the preswitch to postswitch phase of the task. Group differences in performance suggest that early stuttering may be associated with difficulty shifting attention efficiently and greater concern about errors. Findings are consistent with a growing literature indicating links between weak attentional control and persisting developmental stuttering. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wearable and flexible electronics for continuous molecular monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yiran; Gao, Wei

2018-04-03

Wearable biosensors have received tremendous attention over the past decade owing to their great potential in predictive analytics and treatment toward personalized medicine. Flexible electronics could serve as an ideal platform for personalized wearable devices because of their unique properties such as light weight, low cost, high flexibility and great conformability. Unlike most reported flexible sensors that mainly track physical activities and vital signs, the new generation of wearable and flexible chemical sensors enables real-time, continuous and fast detection of accessible biomarkers from the human body, and allows for the collection of large-scale information about the individual's dynamic health status at the molecular level. In this article, we review and highlight recent advances in wearable and flexible sensors toward continuous and non-invasive molecular analysis in sweat, tears, saliva, interstitial fluid, blood, wound exudate as well as exhaled breath. The flexible platforms, sensing mechanisms, and device and system configurations employed for continuous monitoring are summarized. We also discuss the key challenges and opportunities of the wearable and flexible chemical sensors that lie ahead.

Individual consistency and flexibility in human social information use.

Science.gov (United States)

Toelch, Ulf; Bruce, Matthew J; Newson, Lesley; Richerson, Peter J; Reader, Simon M

2014-02-07

Copying others appears to be a cost-effective way of obtaining adaptive information, particularly when flexibly employed. However, adult humans differ considerably in their propensity to use information from others, even when this 'social information' is beneficial, raising the possibility that stable individual differences constrain flexibility in social information use. We used two dissimilar decision-making computer games to investigate whether individuals flexibly adjusted their use of social information to current conditions or whether they valued social information similarly in both games. Participants also completed established personality questionnaires. We found that participants demonstrated considerable flexibility, adjusting social information use to current conditions. In particular, individuals employed a 'copy-when-uncertain' social learning strategy, supporting a core, but untested, assumption of influential theoretical models of cultural transmission. Moreover, participants adjusted the amount invested in their decision based on the perceived reliability of personally gathered information combined with the available social information. However, despite this strategic flexibility, participants also exhibited consistent individual differences in their propensities to use and value social information. Moreover, individuals who favoured social information self-reported as more collectivist than others. We discuss the implications of our results for social information use and cultural transmission.

Nuclear power plant maintenance personnel reliability prediction (NPP/MPRP) effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.

1981-01-01

Human errors committed during maintenance activities are potentially a major contribution to the overall risk associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). An NRC-sponsored program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is attempting to develop a quantitative predictive technique to evaluate the contribution of maintenance errors to the overall NPP risk. The current work includes a survey of the requirements of potential users to ascertain the need for and content of the proposed quantitative model, plus an initial job/task analysis to determine the scope and applicability of various maintenance tasks. In addition, existing human reliability prediction models are being reviewed and assessed with respect to their applicability to NPP maintenance tasks. This paper discusses the status of the program and summarizes the results to date

Multi-level predictive maintenance for multi-component systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, Kim-Anh; Do, Phuc; Grall, Antoine

2015-01-01

In this paper, a novel predictive maintenance policy with multi-level decision-making is proposed for multi-component system with complex structure. The main idea is to propose a decision-making process considered on two levels: system level and component one. The goal of the decision rules at the system level is to address if preventive maintenance actions are needed regarding the predictive reliability of the system. At component level the decision rules aim at identifying optimally a group of several components to be preventively maintained when preventive maintenance is trigged due to the system level decision. Selecting optimal components is based on a cost-based group improvement factor taking into account the predictive reliability of the components, the economic dependencies as well as the location of the components in the system. Moreover, a cost model is developed to find the optimal maintenance decision variables. A 14-component system is finally introduced to illustrate the use and the performance of the proposed predictive maintenance policy. Different sensitivity analysis are also investigated and discussed. Indeed, the proposed policy provides more flexibility in maintenance decision-making for complex structure systems, hence leading to significant profits in terms of maintenance cost when compared with existing policies. - Highlights: • A predictive maintenance policy for complex structure systems is proposed. • Multi-level decision process based on prognostic results is proposed. • A cost-based group importance measure is introduced for decision-making. • Both positive and negative dependencies between components are investigated. • A cost model and Monte Carlo simulation are developed for optimization process.

Human reliability in complex systems: an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.

1976-07-01

A detailed analysis is presented of the main conceptual background underlying the areas of human reliability and human error. The concept of error is examined and generalized to that of human reliability, and some of the practical and methodological difficulties of reconciling the different standpoints of the human factors specialist and the engineer discussed. Following a survey of general reviews available on human reliability, quantitative techniques for prediction of human reliability are considered. An in-depth critical analysis of the various quantitative methods is then presented, together with the data bank requirements for human reliability prediction. Reliability considerations in process control and nuclear plant, and also areas of design, maintenance, testing and emergency situations are discussed. The effects of stress on human reliability are analysed and methods of minimizing these effects discussed. Finally, a summary is presented and proposals for further research are set out. (author)

Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

Science.gov (United States)

Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

2015-09-01

To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear: Reliability of MR Imaging to Predict Stability after Conservative Treatment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Hye Won; Ahn, Jin Hwan; Ahn, Joong Mo; Yoon, Young Cheol; Hong, Hyun Pyo; Yoo, So Young; Kim, Seon Woo [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2007-06-15

The aim of this study is to evaluate the reliability of MR imaging to predict the stability of the torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after complete recovery of the ligament's continuity. Twenty patients with 20 knee injuries (13 males and 7 females; age range, 20 54) were enrolled in the study. The inclusion criteria were a positive history of acute trauma, diagnosis of the ACL tear by both the physical examination and the MR imaging at the initial presentation, conservative treatment, complete recovery of the continuity of the ligament on the follow up (FU) MR images and availability of the KT-2000 measurements. Two radiologists, who worked in consensus, graded the MR findings with using a 3-point system for the signal intensity, sharpness, straightness and the thickness of the healed ligament. The insufficiency of ACL was categorized into three groups according to the KT-2000 measurements. The statistic correlations between the grades of the MR findings and the degrees of ACL insufficiency were analyzed using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test (p < 0.05). The p-values for each category of the MR findings according to the different groups of the KT-2000 measurements were 0.9180 for the MR signal intensity, 1.0000 for sharpness, 0.5038 for straightness and 0.2950 for thickness of the ACL. The MR findings were not significantly different between the different KT-2000 groups. MR imaging itself is not a reliable examination to predict stability of the ACL rupture outcome, even when the MR images show an intact appearance of the ACL.

A computational environment for long-term multi-feature and multi-algorithm seizure prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira, C A; Direito, B; Costa, R P; Valderrama, M; Feldwisch-Drentrup, H; Nikolopoulos, S; Le Van Quyen, M; Schelter, B; Dourado, A

2010-01-01

The daily life of epilepsy patients is constrained by the possibility of occurrence of seizures. Until now, seizures cannot be predicted with sufficient sensitivity and specificity. Most of the seizure prediction studies have been focused on a small number of patients, and frequently assuming unrealistic hypothesis. This paper adopts the view that for an appropriate development of reliable predictors one should consider long-term recordings and several features and algorithms integrated in one software tool. A computational environment, based on Matlab (®), is presented, aiming to be an innovative tool for seizure prediction. It results from the need of a powerful and flexible tool for long-term EEG/ECG analysis by multiple features and algorithms. After being extracted, features can be subjected to several reduction and selection methods, and then used for prediction. The predictions can be conducted based on optimized thresholds or by applying computational intelligence methods. One important aspect is the integrated evaluation of the seizure prediction characteristic of the developed predictors.

High performance flexible CMOS SOI FinFETs

KAUST Repository

Fahad, Hossain M.

2014-06-01

We demonstrate the first ever CMOS compatible soft etch back based high performance flexible CMOS SOI FinFETs. The move from planar to non-planar FinFETs has enabled continued scaling down to the 14 nm technology node. This has been possible due to the reduction in off-state leakage and reduced short channel effects on account of the superior electrostatic charge control of multiple gates. At the same time, flexible electronics is an exciting expansion opportunity for next generation electronics. However, a fully integrated low-cost system will need to maintain ultra-large-scale-integration density, high performance and reliability - same as today\\'s traditional electronics. Up until recently, this field has been mainly dominated by very weak performance organic electronics enabled by low temperature processes, conducive to low melting point plastics. Now however, we show the world\\'s highest performing flexible version of 3D FinFET CMOS using a state-of-the-art CMOS compatible fabrication technique for high performance ultra-mobile consumer applications with stylish design. © 2014 IEEE.

Monte Carlo simulation based reliability evaluation in a multi-bilateral contracts market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, L.; Viswanath, P.A.; Wang, P.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique to evaluate customer load point reliability in multi-bilateral contracts market. The effects of bilateral transactions, reserve agreements, and the priority commitments of generating companies on customer load point reliability have been investigated. A generating company with bilateral contracts is modelled as an equivalent time varying multi-state generation (ETMG). A procedure to determine load point reliability based on ETMG has been developed. The developed procedure is applied to a reliability test system to illustrate the technique. Representing each bilateral contract by an ETMG provides flexibility in determining the reliability at various customer load points. (authors)

Estimation of Residential Heat Pump Consumption for Flexibility Market Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Tan, Zheng-Hua; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2015-01-01

load of a flexible device, namely a Heat Pump (HP), out of the aggregated energy consumption of a house. The main idea for accomplishing this, is a comparison of the flexible consumer with electrically similar non-flexible consumers. The methodology is based on machine learning techniques, probability...... theory and statistics. After presenting this methodology, the general trend of the HP consumption is estimated and an hour-ahead forecast is conducted by employing Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average modeling. In this manner, the flexible consumption is predicted, establishing the basis......Recent technological advancements have facilitated the evolution of traditional distribution grids to smart grids. In a smart grid scenario, flexible devices are expected to aid the system in balancing the electric power in a technically and economically efficient way. To achieve this, the flexible...

On which term is the prediction of the behaviour of glass necessary and reliable?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lefevre, J.

1997-01-01

The author questions the ethics of the deep underground storage of high-level radioactive wastes. The time periods that are considered for the confinement are so long that it is completely impossible to predict the way of life of people at that time and the level of knowledge they will have reached. There is a total agreement about the ethics principle of not jeopardizing life and environment of future generations but the difficulty is to draw the limits of this protection. In the regulations of most countries 2 periods of time are defined: the first 500 years and 10.000 years. 500 years is the period of high heat releases due to the decay of most fission products and is also a reasonable time during which the confining site (structures and packages) stays accessible. 10.000 years is considered as the period of time during which predictions are reliable, beyond this time uncertainties become too important and more and more numerous. (A.C.)

Parts and Components Reliability Assessment: A Cost Effective Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lydia

2009-01-01

System reliability assessment is a methodology which incorporates reliability analyses performed at parts and components level such as Reliability Prediction, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to assess risks, perform design tradeoffs, and therefore, to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success. The system reliability is used to optimize the product design to accommodate today?s mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. Stand ard based reliability assessment is an effective approach consisting of reliability predictions together with other reliability analyses for electronic, electrical, and electro-mechanical (EEE) complex parts and components of large systems based on failure rate estimates published by the United States (U.S.) military or commercial standards and handbooks. Many of these standards are globally accepted and recognized. The reliability assessment is especially useful during the initial stages when the system design is still in the development and hard failure data is not yet available or manufacturers are not contractually obliged by their customers to publish the reliability estimates/predictions for their parts and components. This paper presents a methodology to assess system reliability using parts and components reliability estimates to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success in an efficient manner, low cost, and tight schedule.

Reliability of construction materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merz, H.

1976-01-01

One can also speak of reliability with respect to materials. While for reliability of components the MTBF (mean time between failures) is regarded as the main criterium, this is replaced with regard to materials by possible failure mechanisms like physical/chemical reaction mechanisms, disturbances of physical or chemical equilibrium, or other interactions or changes of system. The main tasks of the reliability analysis of materials therefore is the prediction of the various failure reasons, the identification of interactions, and the development of nondestructive testing methods. (RW) [de

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Maintenance personnel performance simulation (MAPPS): a model for predicting maintenance performance reliability in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.; Krois, P.A.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.; Ryan, T.G.

1983-01-01

The NRC has developed a structured, quantitative, predictive methodology in the form of a computerized simulation model for assessing maintainer task performance. Objective of the overall program is to develop, validate, and disseminate a practical, useful, and acceptable methodology for the quantitative assessment of NPP maintenance personnel reliability. The program was organized into four phases: (1) scoping study, (2) model development, (3) model evaluation, and (4) model dissemination. The program is currently nearing completion of Phase 2 - Model Development

Structural Reliability Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....

On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen Ringi, M

1995-05-01

The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen Ringi, M.

1995-01-01

The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Wei Hsieh

2014-04-01

Full Text Available We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG, and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76. Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA and Medical Research Council (MRC scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p < 0.05. After rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34 and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p < 0.05. Baseline 8-OHdG was significantly correlated with post-treatment FMA, MRC, and pain scores (r = −0.34, −0.31, and 0.25; p < 0.05, indicating its ability to predict functional outcomes. 8-OHdG levels were significantly decreased, and functional outcomes were improved after rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research.

Inflexible parents, inflexible kids: a 6-year longitudinal study of parenting style and the development of psychological flexibility in adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Kathryn E; Ciarrochi, Joseph; Heaven, Patrick C L

2012-08-01

Parenting behaviors have been linked to children's self regulation, but it is less clear how they relate to adolescent psychological flexibility. Psychological flexibility is a broad construct that describes an individual's ability to respond appropriately to environmental demands and internal experiences in the service of their goals. We examined the longitudinal relationships between perceived parenting style and psychological flexibility among students at five Australian schools (N= 749) over 6 years, beginning in Grade 7 (50.3% female, mean age 12.39 years). Parenting style was measured in Grades 7 and 12, and psychological flexibility from Grade 9 through 12. Psychological flexibility decreased, on average, with age. Multi-level modelling indicated that authoritarian parenting (low warmth, high control) in Grade 7 predicted later (low) psychological flexibility. Moreover, increases in authoritarian parenting and decreases in authoritative parenting (high warmth and control) were associated with adolescent psychological flexibility across the high school years. Change in parenting predicted future psychological flexibility but did not predict change over time. Structural Equation Modelling revealed that adolescent psychological flexibility in Grade 9 predicted later decreases in authoritarian and increases in authoritative parenting. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding how parenting changes and the consequences of such change for the development of psychological flexibility.

Layout designs of surface barrier coatings for boosting the capability of oxygen/vapor obstruction utilized in flexible electronics

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chang-Chun; Huang, Pei-Chen; He, Jing-Yan

2018-04-01

Organic light-emitting diode-based flexible and rollable displays have become a promising candidate for next-generation flexible electronics. For this reason, the design of surface multi-layered barriers should be optimized to enhance the long-term mechanical reliability of a flexible encapsulation that prevents the penetration of oxygen and vapor. In this study, finite element-based stress simulation was proposed to estimate the mechanical reliability of gas/vapor barrier design with low-k/silicon nitride (low-k/SiNx) stacking architecture. Consequently, stress-induced failure of critical thin films within the flexible display under various bending conditions must be considered. The feasibility of one pair SiO2/SiNx barrier design, which overcomes the complex lamination process, and the critical bending radius, which is decreased to 1.22 mm, were also examined. In addition, the influence of distance between neutral axes to the concerned layer surface dominated the induced-stress magnitude rather than the stress compliant mechanism provided from stacked low-k films.

Notes on human factors problems in process plant reliability and safety prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, J.; Taylor, J.R.

1976-09-01

The basis for plant operator reliability evaluation is described. Principles for plant design, necessary to permit reliability evaluation, are outlined. Five approaches to the plant operator reliability problem are described. Case stories, illustrating operator reliability problems, are given. (author)

Review on Physically Flexible Nonvolatile Memory for Internet of Everything Electronics

KAUST Repository

Ghoneim, Mohamed T.; Hussain, Muhammad Mustafa

2015-01-01

Solid-state memory is an essential component of the digital age. With advancements in healthcare technology and the Internet of Things (IoT), the demand for ultra-dense, ultra-low-power memory is increasing. In this review, we present a comprehensive perspective on the most notable approaches to the fabrication of physically flexible memory devices. With the future goal of replacing traditional mechanical hard disks with solid-state storage devices, a fully flexible electronic system will need two basic devices: transistors and nonvolatile memory. Transistors are used for logic operations and gating memory arrays, while nonvolatile memory (NVM) devices are required for storing information in the main memory and cache storage. Since the highest density of transistors and storage structures is manifested in memories, the focus of this review is flexible NVM. Flexible NVM components are discussed in terms of their functionality, performance metrics, and reliability aspects, all of which are critical components for NVM technology to be part of mainstream consumer electronics, IoT, and advanced healthcare devices. Finally, flexible NVMs are benchmarked and future prospects are provided.

Review on Physically Flexible Nonvolatile Memory for Internet of Everything Electronics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed T. Ghoneim

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Solid-state memory is an essential component of the digital age. With advancements in healthcare technology and the Internet of Things (IoT, the demand for ultra-dense, ultra-low-power memory is increasing. In this review, we present a comprehensive perspective on the most notable approaches to the fabrication of physically flexible memory devices. With the future goal of replacing traditional mechanical hard disks with solid-state storage devices, a fully flexible electronic system will need two basic devices: transistors and nonvolatile memory. Transistors are used for logic operations and gating memory arrays, while nonvolatile memory (NVM devices are required for storing information in the main memory and cache storage. Since the highest density of transistors and storage structures is manifested in memories, the focus of this review is flexible NVM. Flexible NVM components are discussed in terms of their functionality, performance metrics, and reliability aspects, all of which are critical components for NVM technology to be part of mainstream consumer electronics, IoT, and advanced healthcare devices. Finally, flexible NVMs are benchmarked and future prospects are provided.

Review on Physically Flexible Nonvolatile Memory for Internet of Everything Electronics

KAUST Repository

Ghoneim, Mohamed T.

2015-07-23

Solid-state memory is an essential component of the digital age. With advancements in healthcare technology and the Internet of Things (IoT), the demand for ultra-dense, ultra-low-power memory is increasing. In this review, we present a comprehensive perspective on the most notable approaches to the fabrication of physically flexible memory devices. With the future goal of replacing traditional mechanical hard disks with solid-state storage devices, a fully flexible electronic system will need two basic devices: transistors and nonvolatile memory. Transistors are used for logic operations and gating memory arrays, while nonvolatile memory (NVM) devices are required for storing information in the main memory and cache storage. Since the highest density of transistors and storage structures is manifested in memories, the focus of this review is flexible NVM. Flexible NVM components are discussed in terms of their functionality, performance metrics, and reliability aspects, all of which are critical components for NVM technology to be part of mainstream consumer electronics, IoT, and advanced healthcare devices. Finally, flexible NVMs are benchmarked and future prospects are provided.

Graphene oxide-based flexible metal–insulator–metal capacitors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bag, A; Hota, M K; Mallik, S; Maiti, C K

2013-01-01

This work explores the fabrication of graphene oxide (GO)-based metal–insulator–metal (MIM) capacitors on flexible polyethylene terephthalate (PET) substrates. Electrical properties are studied in detail. A high capacitance density of ∼4 fF µm −2 measured at 1 MHz and permittivity of ∼6 have been obtained. A low voltage coefficient of capacitance, VCC-α, and a low dielectric loss tangent indicate the potential of GO-based MIM capacitors for RF applications. The constant voltage stressing study has shown a high reliability against degradation up to a projected period of 10 years. Degradation in capacitance of the devices on flexible substrates has been studied by bending radius down to 1 cm even up to 6000 times of repeated bending. (paper)

Reliability Modeling of Electromechanical System with Meta-Action Chain Methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Genbao Zhang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available To establish a more flexible and accurate reliability model, the reliability modeling and solving algorithm based on the meta-action chain thought are used in this thesis. Instead of estimating the reliability of the whole system only in the standard operating mode, this dissertation adopts the structure chain and the operating action chain for the system reliability modeling. The failure information and structure information for each component are integrated into the model to overcome the given factors applied in the traditional modeling. In the industrial application, there may be different operating modes for a multicomponent system. The meta-action chain methodology can estimate the system reliability under different operating modes by modeling the components with varieties of failure sensitivities. This approach has been identified by computing some electromechanical system cases. The results indicate that the process could improve the system reliability estimation. It is an effective tool to solve the reliability estimation problem in the system under various operating modes.

Use of reliability engineering in development and manufacturing of metal parts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, A.; Iqbal, M.A.; Asif, M.

2005-01-01

The reliability engineering predicts modes of failures and weak links before the system is built instead of failure case study. The reliability engineering analysis will help in the manufacturing economy, assembly accuracy and qualification by testing, leading to production of metal parts in an aerospace industry. This methodology will also minimize the performance constraints in any requirement for the application of metal components in aerospace systems. The reliability engineering predicts the life of the parts under loading conditions whether dynamic or static. Reliability predictions can help engineers in making decisions about design of components, materials selection and qualification under applied stress levels. Two methods of reliability prediction i.e. Part Stress Analysis and Part Count have been used in this study. In this paper we will discuss how these two methods can be used to measure reliability of a system during development phases, which includes the measuring effect of environmental and operational variables. The equations are used to measure the reliability of each type of component, as well as, integration for measuring system applied for the reliability analysis. (author)

Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmati, Mehdi

2017-08-01

Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed

Substrate and Passivation Techniques for Flexible Amorphous Silicon-Based X-ray Detectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marrs, Michael A; Raupp, Gregory B

2016-07-26

Flexible active matrix display technology has been adapted to create new flexible photo-sensing electronic devices, including flexible X-ray detectors. Monolithic integration of amorphous silicon (a-Si) PIN photodiodes on a flexible substrate poses significant challenges associated with the intrinsic film stress of amorphous silicon. This paper examines how altering device structuring and diode passivation layers can greatly improve the electrical performance and the mechanical reliability of the device, thereby eliminating one of the major weaknesses of a-Si PIN diodes in comparison to alternative photodetector technology, such as organic bulk heterojunction photodiodes and amorphous selenium. A dark current of 0.5 pA/mm² and photodiode quantum efficiency of 74% are possible with a pixelated diode structure with a silicon nitride/SU-8 bilayer passivation structure on a 20 µm-thick polyimide substrate.

Digital Processor Module Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Yong; Jung, Jae Hyun; Kim, Jae Ho; Kim, Sung Hun

2005-01-01

The system used in plant, military equipment, satellite, etc. consists of many electronic parts as control module, which requires relatively high reliability than other commercial electronic products. Specially, Nuclear power plant related to the radiation safety requires high safety and reliability, so most parts apply to Military-Standard level. Reliability prediction method provides the rational basis of system designs and also provides the safety significance of system operations. Thus various reliability prediction tools have been developed in recent decades, among of them, the MI-HDBK-217 method has been widely used as a powerful tool for the prediction. In this work, It is explained that reliability analysis work for Digital Processor Module (DPM, control module of SMART) is performed by Parts Stress Method based on MIL-HDBK-217F NOTICE2. We are using the Relex 7.6 of Relex software corporation, because reliability analysis process requires enormous part libraries and data for failure rate calculation

ITO-free flexible organic solar cells with printed current collecting grids

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Galagan, Y.O.; Rubingh, J.E.J.M.; Andriessen, H.A.J.M.; Fan, C.C.; Blom, P.W.M.; Veenstra, S.C.; Kroon, J.M.

2011-01-01

The presence of a transparent conductive electrode such as indium tin oxide (ITO) limits the reliability and cost price of organic photovoltaic devices as it is brittle and expensive. Moreover, the relative high sheet resistance of an ITO electrode on flexible substrates limits the maximum width of

A pediatric FOUR score coma scale: interrater reliability and predictive validity.

Science.gov (United States)

Czaikowski, Brianna L; Liang, Hong; Stewart, C Todd

2014-04-01

The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a coma scale that consists of four components (eye and motor response, brainstem reflexes, and respiration). It was originally validated among the adult population and recently in a pediatric population. To enhance clinical assessment of pediatric intensive care unit patients, including those intubated and/or sedated, at our children's hospital, we modified the FOUR Score Scale for this population. This modified scale would provide many of the same advantages as the original, such as interrater reliability, simplicity, and elimination of the verbal component that is not compatible with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), creating a more valuable neurological assessment tool for the nursing community. Our goal was to potentially provide greater information than the formally used GCS when assessing critically ill, neurologically impaired patients, including those sedated and/or intubated. Experienced pediatric intensive care unit nurses were trained as "expert raters." Two different nurses assessed each subject using the Pediatric FOUR Score Scale (PFSS), GCS, and Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale at three different time points. Data were compared with the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (PCPC) assessed by another nurse. Our hypothesis was that the PFSS and PCPC should highly correlate and the GCS and PCPC should correlate lower. Study results show that the PFSS is excellent for interrater reliability for trained nurse-rater pairs and prediction of poor outcome and in-hospital mortality, under various situations, but there were no statistically significant differences between the PFSS and the GCS. However, the PFSS does have the potential to provide greater neurological assessment in the intubated and/or sedated patient based on the outcomes of our study.

A mechanically enhanced hybrid nano-stratified barrier with a defect suppression mechanism for highly reliable flexible OLEDs.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Eun Gyo; Kwon, Seonil; Han, Jun Hee; Im, Hyeon-Gyun; Bae, Byeong-Soo; Choi, Kyung Cheol

2017-05-18

Understanding the mechanical behaviors of encapsulation barriers under bending stress is important when fabricating flexible organic light-emitting diodes (FOLEDs). The enhanced mechanical characteristics of a nano-stratified barrier were analyzed based on a defect suppression mechanism, and then experimentally demonstrated. Following the Griffith model, naturally-occurring cracks, which were caused by Zn etching at the interface of the nano-stratified structure, can curb the propagation of defects. Cross-section images after bending tests provided remarkable evidence to support the existence of a defect suppression mechanism. Many visible cracks were found in a single Al 2 O 3 layer, but not in the nano-stratified structure, due to the mechanism. The nano-stratified structure also enhanced the barrier's physical properties by changing the crystalline phase of ZnO. In addition, experimental results demonstrated the effect of the mechanism in various ways. The nano-stratified barrier maintained a low water vapor transmission rate after 1000 iterations of a 1 cm bending radius test. Using this mechanically enhanced hybrid nano-stratified barrier, FOLEDs were successfully encapsulated without losing mechanical or electrical performance. Finally, comparative lifetime measurements were conducted to determine reliability. After 2000 hours of constant current driving and 1000 iterations with a 1 cm bending radius, the FOLEDs retained 52.37% of their initial luminance, which is comparable to glass-lid encapsulation, with 55.96% retention. Herein, we report a mechanically enhanced encapsulation technology for FOLEDs using a nano-stratified structure with a defect suppression mechanism.

Improving Predictions with Reliable Extrapolation Schemes and Better Understanding of Factorization

Science.gov (United States)

More, Sushant N.

New insights into the inter-nucleon interactions, developments in many-body technology, and the surge in computational capabilities has led to phenomenal progress in low-energy nuclear physics in the past few years. Nonetheless, many calculations still lack a robust uncertainty quantification which is essential for making reliable predictions. In this work we investigate two distinct sources of uncertainty and develop ways to account for them. Harmonic oscillator basis expansions are widely used in ab-initio nuclear structure calculations. Finite computational resources usually require that the basis be truncated before observables are fully converged, necessitating reliable extrapolation schemes. It has been demonstrated recently that errors introduced from basis truncation can be taken into account by focusing on the infrared and ultraviolet cutoffs induced by a truncated basis. We show that a finite oscillator basis effectively imposes a hard-wall boundary condition in coordinate space. We accurately determine the position of the hard-wall as a function of oscillator space parameters, derive infrared extrapolation formulas for the energy and other observables, and discuss the extension of this approach to higher angular momentum and to other localized bases. We exploit the duality of the harmonic oscillator to account for the errors introduced by a finite ultraviolet cutoff. Nucleon knockout reactions have been widely used to study and understand nuclear properties. Such an analysis implicitly assumes that the effects of the probe can be separated from the physics of the target nucleus. This factorization between nuclear structure and reaction components depends on the renormalization scale and scheme, and has not been well understood. But it is potentially critical for interpreting experiments and for extracting process-independent nuclear properties. We use a class of unitary transformations called the similarity renormalization group (SRG) transformations to

"Flexible Ligand Docking Studies of Matrix Metalloproteinase Inhibitors Using Lamarckian Genetic Algorithm "

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

lOrkideh Ghorban Dadrass

2004-06-01

Full Text Available As important therapeutic drug targets, matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs have recently attracted great interest in the search for potent and selective inhibitors using computer-aided molecular modelling and docking techniques. Availability of more than 60 X-ray crystal structures or NMR solution structures related to MMPs in Protein Data Bank (PDB of which more than half of them are in complex with various MMP inhibitors (MMPIs, provides a great opportunity for docking studies. In this study AutoDock 3.0.5 along with its LGA algorithm were used for automated flexible ligand docking of 32 MMPI-MMP complexes and docking accuracy and reliability of the estimated inhibition constants were evaluated. Twenty-six out of 32 docks had RMSD less than 3.0 Å which is considered as well-docked, however, for the most of the cases (15 out of 27, predicted pKi values were considerably overestimated in comparison to experimental values. To improve pKi prediction regarding MMPI-MMP complexes, inclusion of at least one such a complex in calibration of empirical free energy function in the next release of AutoDock is highly recommended.

Flexibility Considerations on the Hydrodynamic Loading on a Vertical Wedge Drop

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhongshu; Wang, Zhaoyuan; Judge, Carolyn; Stern, Fred; Ikeda, Christine

2017-11-01

High-speed craft operating at in waves frequently become airborne and slam into the water surface. This fluid-structure interaction problem is important to understand in order to increase the operating envelope of these craft. The goals of the current work are to investigate both the hydrodynamic loads and the resulting structural response on a planing hull. A V-shaped wedge is dropped vertically into calm water. The hydrodynamic pressure is measured using pressure sensors at discrete points on the hull. Two hulls are studied: one is rigid and one is flexible. Predictions of the hydrodynamic loading are made using Wagner's theory, Vorus's theory, and simulations in CFDShip Iowa. These predictions assume the structure is completely rigid. These predictions of the pressure coefficient match well with the rigid hull, as expected. The spray root is tracked in the rigid experimental set and compared with the theoretical and computational models. The pressure coefficient measured on the flexible hull shows discrepancies with the predictions due to the fluid-structure interaction. These discrepancies are quantified and interpreted in light of the structural flexibility. Funding for this work is from the Office of Naval Research Grant Number N00014-16-1-3188.

A Proposal for a Flexible Trend Specification in DSGE Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slanicay Martin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper I propose a flexible trend specification for estimating DSGE models on log differences. I demonstrate this flexible trend specification on a New Keynesian DSGE model of two economies, which I consequently estimate on data from the Czech economy and the euro area, using Bayesian techniques. The advantage of the trend specification proposed is that the trend component and the cyclical component are modelled jointly in a single model. The proposed trend specification is flexible in the sense that smoothness of the trend can be easily modified by different calibration of some of the trend parameters. The results suggest that this method is capable of finding a very reasonable trend in the data. Moreover, comparison of forecast performance reveals that the proposed specification offers more reliable forecasts than the original variant of the model.

The nuclear power plant maintenance personnel reliability prediction (NPP/MPRP) effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.

1982-01-01

Human errors committed during maintenance activities are potentially a major contribution to the overall risk associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). An NRC-sponsored program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is attempting to develop a quantitative predictive technique to evaluate the contribution of maintenance errors to the overall NPP risk. The current work includes a survey of the requirements of potential users to ascertain the need for and content of the proposed quantitative model, plus an initial job/task analysis to determine the scope and applicability of various maintenance tasks. In addition, existing human reliability prediction models are being reviewed and assessed with respect to their applicability to NPP maintenance tasks. This paper discusses the status of the program and summarizes the results to date

Most promising flexible generators for the wind dominated market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vorushylo, I.; Keatley, P.; Hewitt, NJ

2016-01-01

The intermittent nature of wind power and other forms of variable renewable energy requires complementary dispatchable flexible generators in order to guarantee the efficient, reliable and secure operation of electricity systems. The most popular solution to date has been peaking plant, usually in the form of open-cycle-gas- turbines (OCGT). Energy storage technologies have so far been considered too expensive, however technology development, as well as challenging renewable targets could potentially make storage economically viable. Although new advanced flexible combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) have been developed by some manufacturers, they have not yet been investigated in electricity market models. This paper describes a techno-economic assessment of the most suitable flexible technologies for the wind-dominated all Ireland electricity market (the Single Electricity Market (SEM)). The analysis is conducted by considering the impact of a series of policy scenarios which are compared in an electricity market model. The comparison is quantified using three primary metrics: technical benefits to the system, economic advantages to the consumer and investment viability. Modelling results suggest that advanced CCGT and energy storage solutions are the most advantageous, however they need strong governmental support to attract potential investors and guarantee deployment in the market. - Highlights: •Future efficiency and stability of the wind dominated require flexible generators. •Energy storage systems are the most technically advantageous flexible generators. •The advanced flexible CCGT is the most efficient solution from an economic point of view. •Traditional peaking plants (OCGT) is the least advantageous flexible generator. •The governments will play a key role in integration of the flexible technologies.

Dynamic reliability of digital-based transmitters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brissaud, Florent, E-mail: florent.brissaud.2007@utt.f [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France) and Universite de Technologie de Troyes - UTT, Institut Charles Delaunay - ICD and UMR CNRS 6279 STMR, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France); Smidts, Carol [Ohio State University (OSU), Nuclear Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Scott Laboratory, 201 W 19th Ave, Columbus OH 43210 (United States); Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe [Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and UMR CNRS 6279 STMR, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France)

2011-07-15

Dynamic reliability explicitly handles the interactions between the stochastic behaviour of system components and the deterministic behaviour of process variables. While dynamic reliability provides a more efficient and realistic way to perform probabilistic risk assessment than 'static' approaches, its industrial level applications are still limited. Factors contributing to this situation are the inherent complexity of the theory and the lack of a generic platform. More recently the increased use of digital-based systems has also introduced additional modelling challenges related to specific interactions between system components. Typical examples are the 'intelligent transmitters' which are able to exchange information, and to perform internal data processing and advanced functionalities. To make a contribution to solving these challenges, the mathematical framework of dynamic reliability is extended to handle the data and information which are processed and exchanged between systems components. Stochastic deviations that may affect system properties are also introduced to enhance the modelling of failures. A formalized Petri net approach is then presented to perform the corresponding reliability analyses using numerical methods. Following this formalism, a versatile model for the dynamic reliability modelling of digital-based transmitters is proposed. Finally the framework's flexibility and effectiveness is demonstrated on a substantial case study involving a simplified model of a nuclear fast reactor.

Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

CERN Document Server

El Hami, Abdelkhalak

2015-01-01

In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

Wind-Induced Reconfigurations in Flexible Branched Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Ojo, Oluwafemi; Shoele, Kourosh

2017-11-01

Wind induced stresses are the major mechanical cause of failure in trees. We know that the branching mechanism has an important effect on the stress distribution and stability of a tree in the wind. Eloy in PRL 2011, showed that Leonardo da Vinci's original observation which states the total cross section of branches is conserved across branching nodes is the best configuration for resisting wind-induced fracture in rigid trees. However, prediction of the fracture risk and pattern of a tree is also a function of their reconfiguration capabilities and how they mitigate large wind-induced stresses. In this studies through developing an efficient numerical simulation of flexible branched trees, we explore the role of the tree flexibility on the optimal branching. Our results show that the probability of a tree breaking at any point depends on both the cross-section changes in the branching nodes and the level of tree flexibility. It is found that the branching mechanism based on Leonardo da Vinci's original observation leads to a uniform stress distribution over a wide range of flexibilities but the pattern changes for more flexible systems.

Predictive Current Control of a 7-level AC-DC back-to-back Converter for Universal and Flexible Power Management System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bifaretti, Steffano; Zanchetta, Pericle; Iov, Florin

2008-01-01

The paper proposes a novel power conversion system for Universal and Flexible Power Management (UNIFLEX-PM) in Future Electricity Network. Its structure is based on a back-to-back three-phase AC-DC 7-level converter; each AC side is connected to a different PCC, representing the main grid and....../or various distributed generation systems. Effective and accurate power flow control is demonstrated through simulation in Matlab- Simulink environment on a model based on a two-port structure and using a Predictive Control technique. Control of different Power flow profiles has been successfully tested...

Free Vibration Analysis of a Spinning Flexible DISK-SPINDLE System Supported by Ball Bearing and Flexible Shaft Using the Finite Element Method and Substructure Synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

JANG, G. H.; LEE, S. H.; JUNG, M. S.

2002-03-01

Free vibration of a spinning flexible disk-spindle system supported by ball bearing and flexible shaft is analyzed by using Hamilton's principle, FEM and substructure synthesis. The spinning disk is described by using the Kirchhoff plate theory and von Karman non-linear strain. The rotating spindle and stationary shaft are modelled by Rayleigh beam and Euler beam respectively. Using Hamilton's principle and including the rigid body translation and tilting motion, partial differential equations of motion of the spinning flexible disk and spindle are derived consistently to satisfy the geometric compatibility in the internal boundary between substructures. FEM is used to discretize the derived governing equations, and substructure synthesis is introduced to assemble each component of the disk-spindle-bearing-shaft system. The developed method is applied to the spindle system of a computer hard disk drive with three disks, and modal testing is performed to verify the simulation results. The simulation result agrees very well with the experimental one. This research investigates critical design parameters in an HDD spindle system, i.e., the non-linearity of a spinning disk and the flexibility and boundary condition of a stationary shaft, to predict the free vibration characteristics accurately. The proposed method may be effectively applied to predict the vibration characteristics of a spinning flexible disk-spindle system supported by ball bearing and flexible shaft in the various forms of computer storage device, i.e., FDD, CD, HDD and DVD.

Towards Flexibility Detection in Device-Level Energy Consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neupane, Bijay; Pedersen, Torben Bach; Thiesson, Bo

2014-01-01

The increasing drive towards green energy has boosted the installation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Increasing the share of RES in the power grid requires demand management by flexibility in the consumption. In this paper, we perform a state-of-the-art analysis on the flexibility and operat......The increasing drive towards green energy has boosted the installation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Increasing the share of RES in the power grid requires demand management by flexibility in the consumption. In this paper, we perform a state-of-the-art analysis on the flexibility...... and operation patterns of the devices in a set of real households. We propose a number of specific pre-processing steps such as operation stage segmentation, and aberrant operation duration removal to clean device level data. Further, we demonstrate various device operation properties such as hourly and daily...... regularities and patterns and the correlation between operating different devices. Subsequently, we show the existence of detectable time and energy flexibility in device operations. Finally, we provide various results providing a foundation for load- and flexibility-detection and -prediction at the device...

Flexibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Humphrey, L. Dennis

1981-01-01

Flexibility is an important aspect of all sports and recreational activities. Flexibility can be developed and maintained by stretching exercises. Exercises designed to develop flexibility in ankle joints, knees, hips, and the lower back are presented. (JN)

Assessment of the Medial Longitudinal Arch in children with Flexible Pes Planus by Plantar Pressure Mapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmoatasem, E M; Eid, M A

2016-12-01

Plantar Pressure mapping was introduced as a new modality for assessment of the height of the medial longitudinal arch of the foot. Therefore, the aim of this study is to correlate the plantar pressure mapping readings of arch index contact force ratio (AICFR) in children with flexible pes planus with radiographic measurements and static plantar footprints in order to determine the reliability of pressure mapping as a modality for the assessment and follow up of the flat foot deformity. Radiographic measurements, foot prints, and pressure mapping scans were recorded for each foot at initial presentation and at latest follow up in 28 children (56 feet) with flexible pes planus. A positive correlation of pressure mapping results was found with the talo-first metatarsal angle, the calcaneal pitch angle, as well as the footprint scans (P plantar pressure mapping is a reliable and effective tool in screening, diagnosis, and follow up of children with flexible pes planus.

Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

2006-12-01

Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

Reliability Analysis on NPP's Safety-Related Control Module with Field Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Yong; Jung, Jae Hyun; Kim, Seong Hun

2006-01-01

The automatic control systems used in nuclear power plant (NPP) consists of numerous control modules that can be considered to be a network of components various complex ways. The control modules require relatively high reliability than industrial electronic products. Reliability prediction provides the rational basis of system designs and also provides the safety significance of system operations. The aim of this paper is to minimize the deficiencies of the traditional reliability prediction method calculation using the available field return data. This way is possible to do more realistic reliability assessment. SAMCHANG Enterprise Company (SEC) has established database containing high quality data at the module and component level from module maintenance in NPP. On the basis of these, this paper compares results that add failure record (field data) to Telcordia-SR-332 reliability prediction model with MIL-HDBK-217F prediction results

All-phosphorus flexible devices with non-collinear electrodes: a first principles study.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Junjun; Ruan, Lufeng; Wu, Zewen; Zhang, Guiling; Wang, Yin

2018-03-07

With the continuous expansion of the family of two-dimensional (2D) materials, flexible electronics based on 2D materials have quickly emerged. Theoretically, predicting the transport properties of the flexible devices made up of 2D materials using first principles is of great importance. Using density functional theory combined with the non-equilibrium Green's function formalism, we calculated the transport properties of all-phosphorus flexible devices with non-collinear electrodes, and the results predicted that the device with compressed metallic phosphorene electrodes sandwiching a P-type semiconducting phosphorene shows a better and robust conducting behavior against the bending of the semiconducting region when the angle between the two electrodes is less than 45°, which indicates that this system is very promising for flexible electronics. The calculation of a quantum transport system with non-collinear electrodes demonstrated in this work will provide more interesting information on mesoscopic material systems and related devices.

A flexible and accurate digital volume correlation method applicable to high-resolution volumetric images

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Bing; Wang, Bo

2017-10-01

Digital volume correlation (DVC) is a powerful technique for quantifying interior deformation within solid opaque materials and biological tissues. In the last two decades, great efforts have been made to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the DVC algorithm. However, there is still a lack of a flexible, robust and accurate version that can be efficiently implemented in personal computers with limited RAM. This paper proposes an advanced DVC method that can realize accurate full-field internal deformation measurement applicable to high-resolution volume images with up to billions of voxels. Specifically, a novel layer-wise reliability-guided displacement tracking strategy combined with dynamic data management is presented to guide the DVC computation from slice to slice. The displacements at specified calculation points in each layer are computed using the advanced 3D inverse-compositional Gauss-Newton algorithm with the complete initial guess of the deformation vector accurately predicted from the computed calculation points. Since only limited slices of interest in the reference and deformed volume images rather than the whole volume images are required, the DVC calculation can thus be efficiently implemented on personal computers. The flexibility, accuracy and efficiency of the presented DVC approach are demonstrated by analyzing computer-simulated and experimentally obtained high-resolution volume images.

Reliability of Degree-Day Models to Predict the Development Time of Plutella xylostella (L.) under Field Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Marchioro, C A; Krechemer, F S; de Moraes, C P; Foerster, L A

2015-12-01

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a cosmopolitan pest of brassicaceous crops occurring in regions with highly distinct climate conditions. Several studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and P. xylostella development rate, providing degree-day models for populations from different geographical regions. However, there are no data available to date to demonstrate the suitability of such models to make reliable projections on the development time for this species in field conditions. In the present study, 19 models available in the literature were tested regarding their ability to accurately predict the development time of two cohorts of P. xylostella under field conditions. Only 11 out of the 19 models tested accurately predicted the development time for the first cohort of P. xylostella, but only seven for the second cohort. Five models correctly predicted the development time for both cohorts evaluated. Our data demonstrate that the accuracy of the models available for P. xylostella varies widely and therefore should be used with caution for pest management purposes.

Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

2016-10-01

Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

2014-01-01

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the Modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status After Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Juhyun; Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Oh, Sohee; Lee, Jeong Woo; Lee, Seung Bae; Son, Hwancheol; Jeong, Hyeon; Cho, Sung Yong

2015-08-01

The modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity scoring system (S-ReSC-R) for retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) was developed as a tool to predict stone-free rate (SFR) after RIRS. We externally validated the S-ReSC-R. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients who underwent RIRS. The S-ReSC-R was assigned from 1 to 12 according to the location and number of sites involved. The stone-free status was defined as no evidence of a stone or with clinically insignificant residual fragment stones less than 2 mm. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. Statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Overall SFR was 73.0%. The SFRs were 86.7%, 70.2%, and 48.6% in low-score (1-2), intermediate-score (3-4), and high-score (5-12) groups, respectively (pR revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.731 (95% CI 0.650-0.813). The AUC of the three-titered S-ReSC-R was 0.701 (95% CI 0.609-0.794). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of observed frequency. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed a p-value of 0.01 for the S-ReSC-R and 0.90 for the three-titered S-ReSC-R. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities revealed an almost perfect level of agreement. The present study proved the predictive value of S-ReSC-R to predict SFR following RIRS in an independent cohort. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities confirmed that S-ReSC-R was reliable and valid.

Predictive networks: a flexible, open source, web application for integration and analysis of human gene networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Haibe-Kains, Benjamin; Olsen, Catharina; Djebbari, Amira; Bontempi, Gianluca; Correll, Mick; Bouton, Christopher; Quackenbush, John

2012-01-01

Genomics provided us with an unprecedented quantity of data on the genes that are activated or repressed in a wide range of phenotypes. We have increasingly come to recognize that defining the networks and pathways underlying these phenotypes requires both the integration of multiple data types and the development of advanced computational methods to infer relationships between the genes and to estimate the predictive power of the networks through which they interact. To address these issues we have developed Predictive Networks (PN), a flexible, open-source, web-based application and data services framework that enables the integration, navigation, visualization and analysis of gene interaction networks. The primary goal of PN is to allow biomedical researchers to evaluate experimentally derived gene lists in the context of large-scale gene interaction networks. The PN analytical pipeline involves two key steps. The first is the collection of a comprehensive set of known gene interactions derived from a variety of publicly available sources. The second is to use these 'known' interactions together with gene expression data to infer robust gene networks. The PN web application is accessible from http://predictivenetworks.org. The PN code base is freely available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/predictivenets/.

A deformation model of flexible, HAMR objects for accurate propagation under perturbations and the self-shadowing effects

Science.gov (United States)

Channumsin, Sittiporn; Ceriotti, Matteo; Radice, Gianmarco

2018-02-01

A new type of space debris in near geosynchronous orbit (GEO) was recently discovered and later identified as exhibiting unique characteristics associated with high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) objects, such as high rotation rates and high reflection properties. Observations have shown that this debris type is very sensitive to environmental disturbances, particularly solar radiation pressure, due to the fact that its motion depends on the actual effective area, orientation of that effective area, reflection properties and the area-to-mass ratio of the object is not stable over time. Previous investigations have modelled this type of debris as rigid bodies (constant area-to-mass ratios) or discrete deformed body; however, these simplifications will lead to inaccurate long term orbital predictions. This paper proposes a simple yet reliable model of a thin, deformable membrane based on multibody dynamics. The membrane is modelled as a series of flat plates, connected through joints, representing the flexibility of the membrane itself. The mass of the membrane, albeit low, is taken into account through lump masses at the joints. The attitude and orbital motion of this flexible membrane model is then propagated near GEO to predict its orbital evolution under the perturbations of solar radiation pressure, Earth's gravity field (J2), third body gravitational fields (the Sun and Moon) and self-shadowing. These results are then compared to those obtained for two rigid body models (cannonball and flat rigid plate). In addition, Monte Carlo simulations of the flexible model by varying initial attitude and deformation angle (different shape) are investigated and compared with the two rigid models (cannonball and flat rigid plate) over a period of 100 days. The numerical results demonstrate that cannonball and rigid flat plate are not appropriate to capture the true dynamical evolution of these objects, at the cost of increased computational time.

Reliability Estimation for Digital Instrument/Control System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Yaguang; Sydnor, Russell [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C. (United States)

2011-08-15

Digital instrumentation and controls (DI and C) systems are widely adopted in various industries because of their flexibility and ability to implement various functions that can be used to automatically monitor, analyze, and control complicated systems. It is anticipated that the DI and C will replace the traditional analog instrumentation and controls (AI and C) systems in all future nuclear reactor designs. There is an increasing interest for reliability and risk analyses for safety critical DI and C systems in regulatory organizations, such as The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Developing reliability models and reliability estimation methods for digital reactor control and protection systems will involve every part of the DI and C system, such as sensors, signal conditioning and processing components, transmission lines and digital communication systems, D/A and A/D converters, computer system, signal processing software, control and protection software, power supply system, and actuators. Some of these components are hardware, such as sensors and actuators, their failure mechanisms are well understood, and the traditional reliability model and estimation methods can be directly applied. But many of these components are firmware which has software embedded in the hardware, and software needs special consideration because its failure mechanism is unique, and the reliability estimation method for a software system will be different from the ones used for hardware systems. In this paper, we will propose a reliability estimation method for the entire DI and C system reliability using a recently developed software reliability estimation method and a traditional hardware reliability estimation method.

Reliability Estimation for Digital Instrument/Control System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Yaguang; Sydnor, Russell

2011-01-01

Digital instrumentation and controls (DI and C) systems are widely adopted in various industries because of their flexibility and ability to implement various functions that can be used to automatically monitor, analyze, and control complicated systems. It is anticipated that the DI and C will replace the traditional analog instrumentation and controls (AI and C) systems in all future nuclear reactor designs. There is an increasing interest for reliability and risk analyses for safety critical DI and C systems in regulatory organizations, such as The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Developing reliability models and reliability estimation methods for digital reactor control and protection systems will involve every part of the DI and C system, such as sensors, signal conditioning and processing components, transmission lines and digital communication systems, D/A and A/D converters, computer system, signal processing software, control and protection software, power supply system, and actuators. Some of these components are hardware, such as sensors and actuators, their failure mechanisms are well understood, and the traditional reliability model and estimation methods can be directly applied. But many of these components are firmware which has software embedded in the hardware, and software needs special consideration because its failure mechanism is unique, and the reliability estimation method for a software system will be different from the ones used for hardware systems. In this paper, we will propose a reliability estimation method for the entire DI and C system reliability using a recently developed software reliability estimation method and a traditional hardware reliability estimation method

A Novel Reliability Enhanced Handoff Method in Future Wireless Heterogeneous Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang YuPeng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available As the demand increases, future networks will follow the trends of network variety and service flexibility, which requires heterogeneous type of network deployment and reliable communication method. In practice, most communication failure happens due to the bad radio link quality, i.e., high-speed users suffers a lot on the problem of radio link failure, which causes the problem of communication interrupt and radio link recovery. To make the communication more reliable, especially for the high mobility users, we propose a novel communication handoff mechanism to reduce the occurrence of service interrupt. Based on computer simulation, we find that the reliability on the service is greatly improved.

Development and initial evaluation of an enhanced measure of boundary flexibility for the work and family domains.

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, Russell A; Barnes-Farrell, Janet L

2010-07-01

This manuscript reports the development of a measure of work and family domain boundary flexibility. Building on previous research, we propose an expanded definition of boundary flexibility that includes two components-flexibility-ability and flexibility-willingness-and we develop a measure designed to capture this more comprehensive definition of boundary flexibility. Flexibility-ability is conceptualized as an individual's perception of personal and situational constraints that affect boundary management, and flexibility-willingness is conceptualized as an individual difference variable that captures the motivation to engage in boundary flexing. An additional feature of domain boundaries, permeability, is also examined. Data are presented from two studies. Study 1 (N = 244) describes the development of a multiscale measure that extends current conceptual definitions of boundary flexibility. Study 2 (N = 225) describes the refinement and evaluation of this measure. Confirmatory factor analysis, reliability evidence, interscale correlations, and correlations with important work-family constructs (e.g., domain centrality, work-family conflict) provide initial construct validity evidence for the measure.

Effect of flexibility on the growth of concentration fluctuations in a suspension of sedimenting fibers: Particle simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manikantan, Harishankar; Saintillan, David [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093 (United States)

2016-01-15

Three-dimensional numerical simulations are performed to study the stability of a sedimenting suspension of weakly flexible fibers. It is well known that a suspension of rigid rods sedimenting under gravity at low Reynolds number is unstable to concentration fluctuations owing to hydrodynamic interactions. Flexible fibers, however, reorient while settling and even weak flexibility can alter their collective dynamics. In our recent work [Manikantan et al., “The instability of a sedimenting suspension of weakly flexible fibres,” J. Fluid Mech. 756, 935–964 (2014)], we developed a mean-field theory to predict the linear stability of such a system. Here, we verify these predictions using accurate and efficient particle simulations based on a slender-body model. We also demonstrate the mechanisms by which flexibility-induced reorientation alters suspension microstructure, and through it, its stability. Specifically, we first show that the anisotropy of the base state in the case of a suspension of flexible fibers has a destabilizing effect compared to a suspension of rigid rods. Second, a conflicting effect of flexibility is also shown to suppress particle clustering and slow down the growth of the instability. The relative magnitude of filament flexibility and rotational Brownian motion dictates which effect dominates, and our simulations qualitatively follow theoretically predicted trends. The mechanism for either effects is tied to the flexibility-induced reorientation of particles, which we illustrate using velocity and orientation statistics from our simulations. Finally, we also show that, in the case of an initially homogeneous and isotropic suspension, flexibility always acts to suppress the growth of the instability.

Effect of flexibility on the growth of concentration fluctuations in a suspension of sedimenting fibers: Particle simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manikantan, Harishankar; Saintillan, David

2016-01-01

Three-dimensional numerical simulations are performed to study the stability of a sedimenting suspension of weakly flexible fibers. It is well known that a suspension of rigid rods sedimenting under gravity at low Reynolds number is unstable to concentration fluctuations owing to hydrodynamic interactions. Flexible fibers, however, reorient while settling and even weak flexibility can alter their collective dynamics. In our recent work [Manikantan et al., “The instability of a sedimenting suspension of weakly flexible fibres,” J. Fluid Mech. 756, 935–964 (2014)], we developed a mean-field theory to predict the linear stability of such a system. Here, we verify these predictions using accurate and efficient particle simulations based on a slender-body model. We also demonstrate the mechanisms by which flexibility-induced reorientation alters suspension microstructure, and through it, its stability. Specifically, we first show that the anisotropy of the base state in the case of a suspension of flexible fibers has a destabilizing effect compared to a suspension of rigid rods. Second, a conflicting effect of flexibility is also shown to suppress particle clustering and slow down the growth of the instability. The relative magnitude of filament flexibility and rotational Brownian motion dictates which effect dominates, and our simulations qualitatively follow theoretically predicted trends. The mechanism for either effects is tied to the flexibility-induced reorientation of particles, which we illustrate using velocity and orientation statistics from our simulations. Finally, we also show that, in the case of an initially homogeneous and isotropic suspension, flexibility always acts to suppress the growth of the instability

Modular battery design for reliable, flexible and multi-technology energy storage systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothgang, Susanne; Baumhöfer, Thorsten; Hoek, Hauke van; Lange, Tobias; De Doncker, Rik W.; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Collection of existing battery topologies in electric vehicles. • Analysis of load profiles and the power consumption for electric vehicles. • Composition of battery packs and their passive components. • Modular, hybrid battery architecture with a dc-link. - Abstract: With large scale battery systems being more and more used in demanding applications regarding lifetime, performance and safety, it is of great importance to utilize not only cells with a high cyclic and calendric lifetime but also to optimize the whole system architecture. The aim of this work is therefore, to highlight the benefits of a modular system architecture allowing the use of hybrid battery systems combining high power and high energy cells in a multi-technology system. To achieve an optimized performance, efficiency and lifetime for an electric vehicle the complete drive train topology has to be taken into account instead of optimizing one of the components individually. Consequently, the topic will be analyzed from the system’s point of view, addressing in particular the modularization of the battery as well as the power electronics needed to do so. It will be shown that a highly flexible battery system can be realized by dc-to-dc converters between a modular, hybrid battery system and the drive inverter. By the dc-to-dc converters the battery output voltages and the inverter input voltages are decoupled. Hence, the battery’s topology can be chosen unrestrictedly within a wide range and easily be interconnected to a common dc-link of a different voltage. The benefits of this flexibility will be analyzed in detail showing especially how the lifetime of the battery system can be improved and the impact on system weight

A novel numerical model for estimating the collapse pressure of flexible pipes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nogueira, Victor P.P.; Antoun Netto, Theodoro [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao em Engenharia], e-mail: victor@lts.coppe.ufrj.br

2009-07-01

As the worldwide oil and gas industry operational environments move to ultra-deep waters, failure mechanisms in flexible pipes such as instability of the armor layers under compression and hydrostatic collapse are more likely to occur. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable numerical tools to reproduce the failure mechanisms that may occur in flexible pipes. This work presents a representative finite element model of flexible pipe capable to reproduce its pre and post-collapse behavior under hydrostatic pressure. The model, developed in the scope of this work, uses beam elements and includes nonlinear kinematics and material behavior influences. The dependability of the numerical results is assessed in light of experimental tests on flexible pipes with 4 inches and 8 inches nominal diameter available in the literature (Souza, 2002). The applied methodology provided coherent values regarding the estimation of the collapse pressures and results have shown that the proposed model is capable to reproduce experimental results. (author)

Flexible body dynamics in a local frame with explicitly predicted motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kawamoto, A.; Krenk, Steen; Suzuki, A.

2010-01-01

This paper deals with formulation of dynamics of a moving flexible body in a local frame of reference. In a conventional approach the local frame is normally fixed to the corresponding body and always represents the positions and angles of the body: the positions and angles are represented by Car...

New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

2016-01-01

of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

Metabolic flexibility of mitochondrial respiratory chain disorders predicted by computer modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Zieliński, Łukasz P; Smith, Anthony C; Smith, Alexander G; Robinson, Alan J

2016-11-01

Mitochondrial respiratory chain dysfunction causes a variety of life-threatening diseases affecting about 1 in 4300 adults. These diseases are genetically heterogeneous, but have the same outcome; reduced activity of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes causing decreased ATP production and potentially toxic accumulation of metabolites. Severity and tissue specificity of these effects varies between patients by unknown mechanisms and treatment options are limited. So far most research has focused on the complexes themselves, and the impact on overall cellular metabolism is largely unclear. To illustrate how computer modelling can be used to better understand the potential impact of these disorders and inspire new research directions and treatments, we simulated them using a computer model of human cardiomyocyte mitochondrial metabolism containing over 300 characterised reactions and transport steps with experimental parameters taken from the literature. Overall, simulations were consistent with patient symptoms, supporting their biological and medical significance. These simulations predicted: complex I deficiencies could be compensated using multiple pathways; complex II deficiencies had less metabolic flexibility due to impacting both the TCA cycle and the respiratory chain; and complex III and IV deficiencies caused greatest decreases in ATP production with metabolic consequences that parallel hypoxia. Our study demonstrates how results from computer models can be compared to a clinical phenotype and used as a tool for hypothesis generation for subsequent experimental testing. These simulations can enhance understanding of dysfunctional mitochondrial metabolism and suggest new avenues for research into treatment of mitochondrial disease and other areas of mitochondrial dysfunction. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

2017-12-01

Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

Brain Signal Variability Differentially Affects Cognitive Flexibility and Cognitive Stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Armbruster-Genç, Diana J N; Ueltzhöffer, Kai; Fiebach, Christian J

2016-04-06

Recent research yielded the intriguing conclusion that, in healthy adults, higher levels of variability in neuronal processes are beneficial for cognitive functioning. Beneficial effects of variability in neuronal processing can also be inferred from neurocomputational theories of working memory, albeit this holds only for tasks requiring cognitive flexibility. However, cognitive stability, i.e., the ability to maintain a task goal in the face of irrelevant distractors, should suffer under high levels of brain signal variability. To directly test this prediction, we studied both behavioral and brain signal variability during cognitive flexibility (i.e., task switching) and cognitive stability (i.e., distractor inhibition) in a sample of healthy human subjects and developed an efficient and easy-to-implement analysis approach to assess BOLD-signal variability in event-related fMRI task paradigms. Results show a general positive effect of neural variability on task performance as assessed by accuracy measures. However, higher levels of BOLD-signal variability in the left inferior frontal junction area result in reduced error rate costs during task switching and thus facilitate cognitive flexibility. In contrast, variability in the same area has a detrimental effect on cognitive stability, as shown in a negative effect of variability on response time costs during distractor inhibition. This pattern was mirrored at the behavioral level, with higher behavioral variability predicting better task switching but worse distractor inhibition performance. Our data extend previous results on brain signal variability by showing a differential effect of brain signal variability that depends on task context, in line with predictions from computational theories. Recent neuroscientific research showed that the human brain signal is intrinsically variable and suggested that this variability improves performance. Computational models of prefrontal neural networks predict differential

Layout design optimization of dynamic environment flexible manufacturing systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaber Abu Qudeiri

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The proper positioning of machine tools in flexible manufacturing system is one of the factors that lead to increase in production efficiency. Choosing the optimum position of machine tools curtails the total part handling cost between machine tools within the flexible manufacturing system. In this article, a two-stage approach is presented to investigate the best locations of the machine tools in flexible manufacturing system. The location of each machine tool is selected from the available specific and fixed locations in such a way that it will result in best throughput of the flexible manufacturing system. In the first stage of the two-stage approach, the throughput of randomly selected locations of the machine tool in flexible manufacturing system is computed by proposing a production simulation system. The production simulation system utilizes genetic algorithms to find the locations of the machine tools in flexible manufacturing system that achieve the maximum throughput of the flexible manufacturing system. In the second stage, the generated locations are fed into artificial neural network to find a relation between a machine tool’s location and the throughput that can be used to predict the throughput for any other set of locations. Artificial neural network will result in mitigating the computational time.

Flexible Bronchoscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Russell J; Casal, Roberto F; Lazarus, Donald R; Ost, David E; Eapen, George A

2018-03-01

Flexible bronchoscopy has changed the course of pulmonary medicine. As technology advances, the role of the flexible bronchoscope for both diagnostic and therapeutic indications is continually expanding. This article reviews the historical development of the flexible bronchoscopy, fundamental uses of the flexible bronchoscope as a tool to examine the central airways and obtain diagnostic tissue, and the indications, complications, and contraindications to flexible bronchoscopy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New flexible thermal control material for long-life satellite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasaki, Shigekuni; Hasuda, Yoshinori; Ichino, Toshihiro

1986-01-01

Flexible thermal control materials are light weight, cheap and excellent in the practical applicability, and are expected to be applied to future long life, large capacity satellites. However, the flexible thermal control materials used at present have the defect that either the space environment withstanding capability or the thermal control performance is poor. Therefore, the authors examined the flexible thermal control materials which are excellent in both these properties, and have developed the thermal control material PEI-OSR using polyether imide films as the substrate. In this study, while comparing with the FEP Teflon with silver vapor deposition, which has been used so far for short life satellites, the long term reliability of the PEI-OSR supposing the use for seven years was examined. As the results, the FEP Teflon with silver vapor deposition caused cracking and separation by irradiation and heat cycle test, and became unusable, but the PEI-OSR did not change its flexibility at all. Also the thermal control performance of the PEI-OSR after the test equivalent to seven years was superior to the initial performance of the Kaptone with aluminum vapor deposition, which has excellent space environment endurance, thus it was clarified that the PEI-OSR is the most excellent for this purpose. (Kako, I.)

Analytical and numerical modeling for flexible pipes

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Chen, Geng

2011-12-01

The unbonded flexible pipe of eight layers, in which all the layers except the carcass layer are assumed to have isotropic properties, has been analyzed. Specifically, the carcass layer shows the orthotropic characteristics. The effective elastic moduli of the carcass layer have been developed in terms of the influence of deformation to stiffness. With consideration of the effective elastic moduli, the structure can be properly analyzed. Also the relative movements of tendons and relative displacements of wires in helical armour layer have been investigated. A three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model has been presented to predict the response of flexible pipes under axial force and torque. Further, the friction and contact of interlayer have been considered. Comparison between the finite element model and experimental results obtained in literature has been given and discussed, which might provide practical and technical support for the application of unbonded flexible pipes.

Tracking reliability for space cabin-borne equipment in development by Crow model.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J D; Jiao, S J; Sun, H L

2001-12-01

Objective. To study and track the reliability growth of manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment in the course of its development. Method. A new technique of reliability growth estimation and prediction, which is composed of the Crow model and test data conversion (TDC) method was used. Result. The estimation and prediction value of the reliability growth conformed to its expectations. Conclusion. The method could dynamically estimate and predict the reliability of the equipment by making full use of various test information in the course of its development. It offered not only a possibility of tracking the equipment reliability growth, but also the reference for quality control in manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment design and development process.

General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

2016-05-01

The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Some areas of reliability technique which have been neglected to some extent - maintainability - human reliability - mechanical reliability - repairable systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akersten, P.A.

1985-01-01

The present thesis consists of four papers, three of which are of a expositary nature and one more theoretical. The first two papers have a natural coupling to the man-machine interface. The first paper is devoted to the concept of maintainability and the role of man as maintenance technician. The second paper discusses aspects of human reliability, mainly studying man as operator. However, maintenance tasks can be studied in the same manner. The third paper concerns reliability prediction for mechanical components. This is an area of vital importance for the reliability practitioner, who needs realistic and easy-to-use mathematical models for different failure modes. The fourth paper discusses mathematical models for repairable systems, especially the problem of testing whether a constant event intensity model is adequate or not. (author)

The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Yu-Wei; Lin, Keh-Chung; Korivi, Mallikarjuna; Lee, Tsong-Hai; Wu, Ching-Yi; Wu, Kuen-Yuh

2014-01-01

We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76). Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) and Medical Research Council (MRC) scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34) and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research. PMID:24743892

A Study of Flexible Composites for Expandable Space Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Scotti, Stephen J.

2016-01-01

Payload volume for launch vehicles is a critical constraint that impacts spacecraft design. Deployment mechanisms, such as those used for solar arrays and antennas, are approaches that have successfully accommodated this constraint, however, providing pressurized volumes that can be packaged compactly at launch and expanded in space is still a challenge. One approach that has been under development for many years is to utilize softgoods - woven fabric for straps, cloth, and with appropriate coatings, bladders - to provide this expandable pressure vessel capability. The mechanics of woven structure is complicated by a response that is nonlinear and often nonrepeatable due to the discrete nature of the woven fiber architecture. This complexity reduces engineering confidence to reliably design and certify these structures, which increases costs due to increased requirements for system testing. The present study explores flexible composite materials systems as an alternative to the heritage softgoods approach. Materials were obtained from vendors who utilize flexible composites for non-aerospace products to determine some initial physical and mechanical properties of the materials. Uniaxial mechanical testing was performed to obtain the stress-strain response of the flexible composites and the failure behavior. A failure criterion was developed from the data, and a space habitat application was used to provide an estimate of the relative performance of flexible composites compared to the heritage softgoods approach. Initial results are promising with a 25% mass savings estimated for the flexible composite solution.

Flexible graphene–PZT ferroelectric nonvolatile memory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Wonho; Ahn, Jong-Hyun; Kahya, Orhan; Toh, Chee Tat; Özyilmaz, Barbaros

2013-01-01

We report the fabrication of a flexible graphene-based nonvolatile memory device using Pb(Zr 0.35 ,Ti 0.65 )O 3 (PZT) as the ferroelectric material. The graphene and PZT ferroelectric layers were deposited using chemical vapor deposition and sol–gel methods, respectively. Such PZT films show a high remnant polarization (P r ) of 30 μC cm −2 and a coercive voltage (V c ) of 3.5 V under a voltage loop over ±11 V. The graphene–PZT ferroelectric nonvolatile memory on a plastic substrate displayed an on/off current ratio of 6.7, a memory window of 6 V and reliable operation. In addition, the device showed one order of magnitude lower operation voltage range than organic-based ferroelectric nonvolatile memory after removing the anti-ferroelectric behavior incorporating an electrolyte solution. The devices showed robust operation in bent states of bending radii up to 9 mm and in cycling tests of 200 times. The devices exhibited remarkable mechanical properties and were readily integrated with plastic substrates for the production of flexible circuits. (paper)

Flexible graphene-PZT ferroelectric nonvolatile memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Wonho; Kahya, Orhan; Toh, Chee Tat; Ozyilmaz, Barbaros; Ahn, Jong-Hyun

2013-11-29

We report the fabrication of a flexible graphene-based nonvolatile memory device using Pb(Zr0.35,Ti0.65)O3 (PZT) as the ferroelectric material. The graphene and PZT ferroelectric layers were deposited using chemical vapor deposition and sol–gel methods, respectively. Such PZT films show a high remnant polarization (Pr) of 30 μC cm−2 and a coercive voltage (Vc) of 3.5 V under a voltage loop over ±11 V. The graphene–PZT ferroelectric nonvolatile memory on a plastic substrate displayed an on/off current ratio of 6.7, a memory window of 6 V and reliable operation. In addition, the device showed one order of magnitude lower operation voltage range than organic-based ferroelectric nonvolatile memory after removing the anti-ferroelectric behavior incorporating an electrolyte solution. The devices showed robust operation in bent states of bending radii up to 9 mm and in cycling tests of 200 times. The devices exhibited remarkable mechanical properties and were readily integrated with plastic substrates for the production of flexible circuits.

Reliability planning in distributed electric energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kahn, E.

1978-10-01

The goal of this paper is to develop tools for technology evaluation that address questions involving the economics of large-scale systems. The kind of cost discussed usually involves some dynamic aspect of the energy system. In particular, such properties as flexibility, stability, and resilience are features of entire systems. Special attention must be paid to the question of reliability, i.e., availability on demand. The storage problem and the planning for reliability in utility systems are the subjects of this paper. The introductory chapter addresses preliminary definitions--reliability planning, uncertainty, resilience, and other sensitivities. The study focuses on the contrast between conventional power generation technologies with controllable output and intermittent resources such as wind and solar electric conversion devices. The system studied is a stylized representation of California conditions. Significant differences were found in reliability planning requirements (and therefore costs) for systems dominated by central station plants as opposed to those dominated by intermittent resource technologies. It is argued that existing hydroelectric facilities need re-optimization. These plants provide the only currently existing bulk power storage in electric energy systems. 38 references. (MCW)

Assessing the reliability of predictive activity coefficient models for molecules consisting of several functional groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. P. Gerber

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Currently, the most successful predictive models for activity coefficients are those based on functional groups such as UNIFAC. In contrast, these models require a large amount of experimental data for the determination of their parameter matrix. A more recent alternative is the models based on COSMO, for which only a small set of universal parameters must be calibrated. In this work, a recalibrated COSMO-SAC model was compared with the UNIFAC (Do model employing experimental infinite dilution activity coefficient data for 2236 non-hydrogen-bonding binary mixtures at different temperatures. As expected, UNIFAC (Do presented better overall performance, with a mean absolute error of 0.12 ln-units against 0.22 for our COSMO-SAC implementation. However, in cases involving molecules with several functional groups or when functional groups appear in an unusual way, the deviation for UNIFAC was 0.44 as opposed to 0.20 for COSMO-SAC. These results show that COSMO-SAC provides more reliable predictions for multi-functional or more complex molecules, reaffirming its future prospects.

Semen molecular and cellular features: these parameters can reliably predict subsequent ART outcome in a goat model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mereu Paolo

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Currently, the assessment of sperm function in a raw or processed semen sample is not able to reliably predict sperm ability to withstand freezing and thawing procedures and in vivo fertility and/or assisted reproductive biotechnologies (ART outcome. The aim of the present study was to investigate which parameters among a battery of analyses could predict subsequent spermatozoa in vitro fertilization ability and hence blastocyst output in a goat model. Ejaculates were obtained by artificial vagina from 3 adult goats (Capra hircus aged 2 years (A, B and C. In order to assess the predictive value of viability, computer assisted sperm analyzer (CASA motility parameters and ATP intracellular concentration before and after thawing and of DNA integrity after thawing on subsequent embryo output after an in vitro fertility test, a logistic regression analysis was used. Individual differences in semen parameters were evident for semen viability after thawing and DNA integrity. Results of IVF test showed that spermatozoa collected from A and B lead to higher cleavage rates (0

Flexible high-κ/Metal gate metal/insulator/metal capacitors on silicon (100) fabric

KAUST Repository

Rojas, Jhonathan Prieto

2013-10-01

Implementation of memory on bendable substrates is an important step toward a complete and fully developed notion of mechanically flexible computational systems. In this paper, we have demonstrated a simple fabrication flow to build metal-insulator-metal capacitors, key components of dynamic random access memory, on a mechanically flexible silicon (100) fabric. We rely on standard microfabrication processes to release a thin sheet of bendable silicon (area: 18 {\\ m cm}2 and thickness: 25 \\\\mu{\\ m m}) in an inexpensive and reliable way. On such platform, we fabricated and characterized the devices showing mechanical robustness (minimum bending radius of 10 mm at an applied strain of 83.33% and nominal strain of 0.125%) and consistent electrical behavior regardless of the applied mechanical stress. Furthermore, and for the first time, we performed a reliability study suggesting no significant difference in performance and showing an improvement in lifetime projections. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Does flexible tunnel drilling affect the femoral tunnel angle measurement after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction?

Science.gov (United States)

Muller, Bart; Hofbauer, Marcus; Atte, Akere; van Dijk, C Niek; Fu, Freddie H

2015-12-01

To quantify the mean difference in femoral tunnel angle (FTA) as measured on knee radiographs between rigid and flexible tunnel drilling after anatomic anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. Fifty consecutive patients that underwent primary anatomic ACL reconstruction with a single femoral tunnel drilled with a flexible reamer were included in this study. The control group was comprised of 50 patients all of who underwent primary anatomic ACL reconstruction with a single femoral tunnel drilled with a rigid reamer. All femoral tunnels were drilled through a medial portal to ensure anatomic tunnel placement. The FTA was determined from post-operative anterior-to-posterior (AP) radiographs by two independent observers. A 5° difference between the two mean FTA was considered clinically significant. The average FTA, when drilled with a rigid reamer, was 42.0° ± 7.2°. Drilling with a flexible reamer resulted in a mean FTA of 44.7° ± 7.0°. The mean difference of 2.7° was not statistically significant. The intraclass correlation coefficient for inter-tester reliability was 0.895. The FTA can be reliably determined from post-operative AP radiographs and provides a useful and reproducible metric for characterizing femoral tunnel position after both rigid and flexible femoral tunnel drilling. This has implications for post-operative evaluation and preoperative treatment planning for ACL revision surgery. IV.

CMOS-Technology-Enabled Flexible and Stretchable Electronics for Internet of Everything Applications

KAUST Repository

Hussain, Aftab M.

2015-11-26

Flexible and stretchable electronics can dramatically enhance the application of electronics for the emerging Internet of Everything applications where people, processes, data and devices will be integrated and connected, to augment quality of life. Using naturally flexible and stretchable polymeric substrates in combination with emerging organic and molecular materials, nanowires, nanoribbons, nanotubes, and 2D atomic crystal structured materials, significant progress has been made in the general area of such electronics. However, high volume manufacturing, reliability and performance per cost remain elusive goals for wide commercialization of these electronics. On the other hand, highly sophisticated but extremely reliable, batch-fabrication-capable and mature complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS)-based technology has facilitated tremendous growth of today\\'s digital world using thin-film-based electronics; in particular, bulk monocrystalline silicon (100) which is used in most of the electronics existing today. However, one fundamental challenge is that state-of-the-art CMOS electronics are physically rigid and brittle. Therefore, in this work, how CMOS-technology-enabled flexible and stretchable electronics can be developed is discussed, with particular focus on bulk monocrystalline silicon (100). A comprehensive information base to realistically devise an integration strategy by rational design of materials, devices and processes for Internet of Everything electronics is offered. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Reliability prediction of large fuel cell stack based on structure stress analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, L. F.; Liu, B.; Wu, C. W.

2017-09-01

The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability of Proton Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stack by designing the clamping force and the thickness difference between the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the gasket. The stack reliability is directly determined by the component reliability, which is affected by the material property and contact stress. The component contact stress is a random variable because it is usually affected by many uncertain factors in the production and clamping process. We have investigated the influences of parameter variation coefficient on the probability distribution of contact stress using the equivalent stiffness model and the first-order second moment method. The optimal contact stress to make the component stay in the highest level reliability is obtained by the stress-strength interference model. To obtain the optimal contact stress between the contact components, the optimal thickness of the component and the stack clamping force are optimally designed. Finally, a detailed description is given how to design the MEA and gasket dimensions to obtain the highest stack reliability. This work can provide a valuable guidance in the design of stack structure for a high reliability of fuel cell stack.

78 FR 43198 - Flexible and Local Resources Needed for Reliability in the California Wholesale Electric Market...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-19

... auction impact the effectiveness of forward procurement for reliability purposes? Why or why not? 11:15 a... three-year forward resource adequacy obligation backed by a market-based CAISO backstop procurement... development of a durable, market-based mechanism to provide incentives to insure reliability needs are met...

Solid-state Memory on Flexible Silicon for Future Electronic Applications

KAUST Repository

Ghoneim, Mohamed

2016-11-01

Advancements in electronics research triggered a vision of a more connected world, touching new unprecedented fields to improve the quality of our lives. This vision has been fueled by electronic giants showcasing flexible displays for the first time in consumer electronics symposiums. Since then, the scientific and research communities partook on exploring possibilities for making flexible electronics. Decades of research have revealed many routes to flexible electronics, lots of opportunities and challenges. In this work, we focus on our contributions towards realizing a complimentary approach to flexible inorganic high performance electronic memories on silicon. This approach provides a straight forward method for capitalizing on the existing well-established semiconductor infrastructure, standard processes and procedures, and collective knowledge. Ultimately, we focus on understanding the reliability and functionality anomalies in flexible electronics and flexible solid state memory built using the flexible silicon platform. The results of the presented studies show that: (i) flexible devices fabricated using etch-protect-release approach (with trenches included in the active area) exhibit ~19% lower safe operating voltage compared to their bulk counterparts, (ii) they can withstand prolonged bending duration (static stress) but are prone to failure under dynamic stress as in repeated bending and re-flattening, (iii) flexible 3D FinFETs exhibit ~10% variation in key properties when exposed to out-of-plane bending stress and out-of-plane stress does not resemble the well-studied in-plane stress used in strain engineering, (iv) resistive memories can be achieved on flexible silicon and their basic resistive property is preserved but other memory functionalities (retention, endurance, speed, memory window) requires further investigations, (v) flexible silicon based PZT ferroelectric capacitors exhibit record polarization, capacitance, and endurance (1 billion

Predicting Spike Occurrence and Neuronal Responsiveness from LFPs in Primary Somatosensory Cortex

Science.gov (United States)

Storchi, Riccardo; Zippo, Antonio G.; Caramenti, Gian Carlo; Valente, Maurizio; Biella, Gabriele E. M.

2012-01-01

Local Field Potentials (LFPs) integrate multiple neuronal events like synaptic inputs and intracellular potentials. LFP spatiotemporal features are particularly relevant in view of their applications both in research (e.g. for understanding brain rhythms, inter-areal neural communication and neronal coding) and in the clinics (e.g. for improving invasive Brain-Machine Interface devices). However the relation between LFPs and spikes is complex and not fully understood. As spikes represent the fundamental currency of neuronal communication this gap in knowledge strongly limits our comprehension of neuronal phenomena underlying LFPs. We investigated the LFP-spike relation during tactile stimulation in primary somatosensory (S-I) cortex in the rat. First we quantified how reliably LFPs and spikes code for a stimulus occurrence. Then we used the information obtained from our analyses to design a predictive model for spike occurrence based on LFP inputs. The model was endowed with a flexible meta-structure whose exact form, both in parameters and structure, was estimated by using a multi-objective optimization strategy. Our method provided a set of nonlinear simple equations that maximized the match between models and true neurons in terms of spike timings and Peri Stimulus Time Histograms. We found that both LFPs and spikes can code for stimulus occurrence with millisecond precision, showing, however, high variability. Spike patterns were predicted significantly above chance for 75% of the neurons analysed. Crucially, the level of prediction accuracy depended on the reliability in coding for the stimulus occurrence. The best predictions were obtained when both spikes and LFPs were highly responsive to the stimuli. Spike reliability is known to depend on neuron intrinsic properties (i.e. on channel noise) and on spontaneous local network fluctuations. Our results suggest that the latter, measured through the LFP response variability, play a dominant role. PMID:22586452

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Fletcher, Robert J.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2011-01-01

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Fletcher, Robert J; Acevedo, Miguel A; Reichert, Brian E; Pias, Kyle E; Kitchens, Wiley M

2011-11-29

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

Design of piezoelectric transducer layer with electromagnetic shielding and high connection reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Shi, Xiaoling; Huang, Tianxiang

2012-07-01

Piezoelectric transducer (PZT) and Lamb wave based structural health monitoring (SHM) method have been widely studied for on-line SHM of high-performance structures. To monitor large-scale structures, a dense PZTs array is required. In order to improve the placement efficiency and reduce the wire burden of the PZTs array, the concept of the piezoelectric transducers layer (PSL) was proposed. The PSL consists of PZTs, a flexible interlayer with printed wires and signal input/output interface. For on-line SHM on real aircraft structures, there are two main issues on electromagnetic interference and connection reliability of the PSL. To address the issues, an electromagnetic shielding design method of the PSL to reduce spatial electromagnetic noise and crosstalk is proposed and a combined welding-cementation process based connection reliability design method is proposed to enhance the connection reliability between the PZTs and the flexible interlayer. Two experiments on electromagnetic interference suppression are performed to validate the shielding design of the PSL. The experimental results show that the amplitudes of the spatial electromagnetic noise and crosstalk output from the shielded PSL developed by this paper are - 15 dB and - 25 dB lower than those of the ordinary PSL, respectively. Other two experiments on temperature durability ( - 55 °C-80 °C ) and strength durability (160-1600μɛ, one million load cycles) are applied to the PSL to validate the connection reliability. The low repeatability errors (less than 3% and less than 5%, respectively) indicate that the developed PSL is of high connection reliability and long fatigue life.

How does symmetry impact the flexibility of proteins?

Science.gov (United States)

Schulze, Bernd; Sljoka, Adnan; Whiteley, Walter

2014-02-13

It is well known that (i) the flexibility and rigidity of proteins are central to their function, (ii) a number of oligomers with several copies of individual protein chains assemble with symmetry in the native state and (iii) added symmetry sometimes leads to added flexibility in structures. We observe that the most common symmetry classes of protein oligomers are also the symmetry classes that lead to increased flexibility in certain three-dimensional structures-and investigate the possible significance of this coincidence. This builds on the well-developed theory of generic rigidity of body-bar frameworks, which permits an analysis of the rigidity and flexibility of molecular structures such as proteins via fast combinatorial algorithms. In particular, we outline some very simple counting rules and possible algorithmic extensions that allow us to predict continuous symmetry-preserving motions in body-bar frameworks that possess non-trivial point-group symmetry. For simplicity, we focus on dimers, which typically assemble with twofold rotational axes, and often have allosteric function that requires motions to link distant sites on the two protein chains.

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

Science.gov (United States)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

Indirect control of flexible demand for power system applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sossan, Fabrizio

This thesis addresses the topic of control of flexible demand to provide support to the operation of the electric power system. We focus on the indirect control approach, a framework that enables demand response by means of a consumption incentive signal. Initially, the concept of flexibility...... a shift in the consumption according to an indirect control signal. We present from simple control algorithms with a few requirements up to model predictive control strategies. The performance of the indirect control algorithms are compared by means of hardware-in-the-loop simulations using Power...... and storage in the operation of the future power system, we develop a model predictive control strategy for a smart building with the objective of supplying iii space heating and providing regulating power to the grid according to a dynamic electricity price. We named this application energy replacement...

Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

2012-01-01

Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

New horizons in mouse immunoinformatics: reliable in silico prediction of mouse class I histocompatibility major complex peptide binding affinity.

Science.gov (United States)

Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Guan, Pingping; Doytchinova, Irini A; Flower, Darren R

2004-11-21

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis is a main cornerstone of modern informatic disciplines. Predictive computational models, based on QSAR technology, of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding affinity have now become a vital component of modern day computational immunovaccinology. Historically, such approaches have been built around semi-qualitative, classification methods, but these are now giving way to quantitative regression methods. The additive method, an established immunoinformatics technique for the quantitative prediction of peptide-protein affinity, was used here to identify the sequence dependence of peptide binding specificity for three mouse class I MHC alleles: H2-D(b), H2-K(b) and H2-K(k). As we show, in terms of reliability the resulting models represent a significant advance on existing methods. They can be used for the accurate prediction of T-cell epitopes and are freely available online ( http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred).

Rosetta Ligand docking with flexible XML protocols.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmon, Gordon; Meiler, Jens

2012-01-01

RosettaLigand is premiere software for predicting how a protein and a small molecule interact. Benchmark studies demonstrate that 70% of the top scoring RosettaLigand predicted interfaces are within 2Å RMSD from the crystal structure [1]. The latest release of Rosetta ligand software includes many new features, such as (1) docking of multiple ligands simultaneously, (2) representing ligands as fragments for greater flexibility, (3) redesign of the interface during docking, and (4) an XML script based interface that gives the user full control of the ligand docking protocol.

A comparative study on the HW reliability assessment methods for digital I and C equipment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, G. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea); Kim, M. C. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea); Jun, S. T. [KHNP, Taejeon (Korea)

2002-03-01

It is necessary to predict or to evaluate the reliability of electronic equipment for the probabilistic safety analysis of digital instrument and control equipment. But most databases for the reliability prediction have no data for the up-to-date equipment and the failure modes are not classified. The prediction results for the specific component show different values according to the methods and databases. For boards and systems each method shows different values than others also. This study is for reliability prediction of PDC system for Wolsong NPP1 as a digital I and C equipment. Various reliability prediction methods and failure databases are used in calculation of the reliability to compare the effects of sensitivity and accuracy of each model and database. Many considerations for the reliability assessment of digital systems are derived with the results of this study. 14 refs., 19 figs., 15 tabs. (Author)

Effects of feedback reliability on feedback-related brain activity: A feedback valuation account.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, Benjamin; Steinhauser, Marco

2018-04-06

Adaptive decision making relies on learning from feedback. Because feedback sometimes can be misleading, optimal learning requires that knowledge about the feedback's reliability be utilized to adjust feedback processing. Although previous research has shown that feedback reliability indeed influences feedback processing, the underlying mechanisms through which this is accomplished remain unclear. Here we propose that feedback processing is adjusted by the adaptive, top-down valuation of feedback. We assume that unreliable feedback is devalued relative to reliable feedback, thus reducing the reward prediction errors that underlie feedback-related brain activity and learning. A crucial prediction of this account is that the effects of feedback reliability are susceptible to contrast effects. That is, the effects of feedback reliability should be enhanced when both reliable and unreliable feedback are experienced within the same context, as compared to when only one level of feedback reliability is experienced. To evaluate this prediction, we measured the event-related potentials elicited by feedback in two experiments in which feedback reliability was varied either within or between blocks. We found that the fronto-central valence effect, a correlate of reward prediction errors during reinforcement learning, was reduced for unreliable feedback. But this result was obtained only when feedback reliability was varied within blocks, thus indicating a contrast effect. This suggests that the adaptive valuation of feedback is one mechanism underlying the effects of feedback reliability on feedback processing.

Reliability of steam-turbine rotors. Task 1. Lifetime prediction analysis system. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nair, P.K.; Pennick, H.G.; Peters, J.E.; Wells, C.H.

1982-12-01

Task 1 of RP 502, Reliability of Steam Turbine Rotors, resulted in the development of a computerized lifetime prediction analysis system (STRAP) for the automatic evaluation of rotor integrity based upon the results of a boresonic examination of near-bore defects. Concurrently an advanced boresonic examination system (TREES), designed to acquire data automatically for lifetime analysis, was developed and delivered to the maintenance shop of a major utility. This system and a semi-automated, state-of-the-art system (BUCS) were evaluated on two retired rotors as part of the Task 2 effort. A modified nonproprietary version of STRAP, called SAFER, is now available for rotor lifetime prediction analysis. STRAP and SAFER share a common fracture analysis postprocessor for rapid evaluation of either conventional boresonic amplitude data or TREES cell data. The final version of this postprocessor contains general stress intensity correlations for elliptical cracks in a radial stress gradient and provision for elastic-plastic instability of the ligament between an imbedded crack and the bore surface. Both linear elastic and ligament rupture models were developed for rapid analysis of linkup within three-dimensional clusters of defects. Bore stress-rupture criteria are included, but a creep-fatigue crack growth data base is not available. Physical and mechanical properties of air-melt 1CrMoV forgings are built into the program; however, only bounding values of fracture toughness versus temperature are available. Owing to the lack of data regarding the probability of flaw detection for the boresonic systems and of quantitative verification of the flaw linkup analysis, automatic evlauation of boresonic results is not recommended, and the lifetime prediction system is currently restricted to conservative, deterministic analysis of specified flaw geometries

Dyadic flexibility and positive affect in parent–child coregulation and the development of child behavior problems

Science.gov (United States)

LUNKENHEIMER, ERIKA S.; OLSON, SHERYL L.; HOLLENSTEIN, TOM; SAMEROFF, ARNOLD J.; WINTER, CHARLOTTE

2018-01-01

Parent–child dyadic rigidity and negative affect contribute to children’s higher levels of externalizing problems. The present longitudinal study examined whether the opposite constructs of dyadic flexibility and positive affect predicted lower levels of externalizing behavior problems across the early childhood period. Mother–child (N = 163) and father–child (n = 94) dyads engaged in a challenging block design task at home when children were 3 years old. Dynamic systems methods were used to derive dyadic positive affect and three indicators of dyadic flexibility (range, dispersion, and transitions) from observational coding. We hypothesized that the interaction between dyadic flexibility and positive affect would predict lower levels of externalizing problems at age 5.5 years as rated by mothers and teachers, controlling for stability in externalizing problems, task time, child gender, and the child’s effortful control. The hypothesis was supported in predicting teacher ratings of child externalizing from both mother–child and father–child interactions. There were also differential main effects for mothers and fathers: mother–child flexibility was detrimental and father–child flexibility was beneficial for child outcomes. Results support the inclusion of adaptive and dynamic parent–child coregulation processes in the study of children’s early disruptive behavior. PMID:23786697

Parylene C-Based Flexible Electronics for pH Monitoring Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatiana Trantidou

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Emerging materials in the field of implantable sensors should meet the needs for biocompatibility; transparency; flexibility and integrability. In this work; we present an integrated approach for implementing flexible bio-sensors based on thin Parylene C films that serve both as flexible support substrates and as active H+ sensing membranes within the same platform. Using standard micro-fabrication techniques; a miniaturized 40-electrode array was implemented on a 5 μm-thick Parylene C film. A thin capping film (1 μm of Parylene on top of the array was plasma oxidized and served as the pH sensing membrane. The sensor was evaluated with the use of extended gate discrete MOSFETs to separate the chemistry from the electronics and prolong the lifetime of the sensor. The chemical sensing array spatially maps the local pH levels; providing a reliable and rapid-response (<5 s system with a sensitivity of 23 mV/pH. Moreover; it preserves excellent encapsulation integrity and low chemical drifts (0.26–0.38 mV/min. The proposed approach is able to deliver hybrid flexible sensing platforms that will facilitate concurrent electrical and chemical recordings; with application in real-time physiological recordings of organs and tissues.

Parylene C-based flexible electronics for pH monitoring applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Trantidou, Tatiana; Tariq, Mehvesh; Terracciano, Cesare M; Toumazou, Christofer; Prodromakis, Themistoklis

2014-07-01

Emerging materials in the field of implantable sensors should meet the needs for biocompatibility; transparency; flexibility and integrability. In this work; we present an integrated approach for implementing flexible bio-sensors based on thin Parylene C films that serve both as flexible support substrates and as active H(+) sensing membranes within the same platform. Using standard micro-fabrication techniques; a miniaturized 40-electrode array was implemented on a 5 μm-thick Parylene C film. A thin capping film (1 μm) of Parylene on top of the array was plasma oxidized and served as the pH sensing membrane. The sensor was evaluated with the use of extended gate discrete MOSFETs to separate the chemistry from the electronics and prolong the lifetime of the sensor. The chemical sensing array spatially maps the local pH levels; providing a reliable and rapid-response (<5 s) system with a sensitivity of 23 mV/pH. Moreover; it preserves excellent encapsulation integrity and low chemical drifts (0.26-0.38 mV/min). The proposed approach is able to deliver hybrid flexible sensing platforms that will facilitate concurrent electrical and chemical recordings; with application in real-time physiological recordings of organs and tissues.

Hydraulic pressure pulses with elastic and plastic structural flexibility: test and analysis (LWBR Development Program)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwirian, R.E.

1978-03-01

Pressure pulse tests were conducted with a flexible test section in a test vessel filled with room temperature water. The pressure pulses were generated with a drop hammer and piston pulse generator and were of a sufficient magnitude to cause plastic deformation of the test section. Because of the strong pressure relief effect of the deforming test section, pressure pulse magnitudes were below 265 psig in magnitude and had durations of 50 to 55 msecs. Calculations performed with the FLASH-35 bi-linear hysteresis model of structural deformation show good agreement with experiment. In particular, FLASH 35 adequately predicts the decrease in peak pressure and the increase in pulse duration due to elastic and plastic deformation of the test section. Predictions of flexible member motion are good, but are less satisfactory than the pressure pulse results due to uncertainties in the values of yield point and beyond yield stiffness used to model the various flexible members. Coupled with this is a strong sensitivity of the FLASH 35 predictions to the values of yield point and beyond yield stiffness chosen for the various flexible members. The test data versus calculation comparisons presented here provide preliminary qualification for FLASH 35 calculations of transient hydraulic pressures and pressure differentials in the presence of flexible structural members which deform both elastically and plastically

Bayesian approach in the power electric systems study of reliability ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Reliability - Power System - Bayes Theorem - Weibull Model - Probability. ... ensure a series of estimated parameter (failure rate, mean time to failure, function .... only on random variable r.v. describing the operating conditions: ..... Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time, Reliability Engineering.

Prediction of Osteoporosis through Radiographic Assessment of Proximal Femoral Morphology and Texture in Elderly; is it Valid and Reliable

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Özkan Köse

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the best predictive radiographic measurement method to identify the presence of osteoporosis and test the inter-observer and intra-observer reliability and validity of these methods in postmenopausal women. Materials and Methods: Ninety-two elderly female patients who presented with hip pain were included. Hip radiographs were used to determine the values of Singh index (SI, canal-to-calcar ratio (CCR, and cortical thickness index (CTI. All measurements were performed by two independent observers on two separate occasions, at least 4 weeks apart. Bone mineral density (BMD was assessed by DEXA. In the first part of the analysis, reliability of the all measurement methods was tested. In the second part, correlation coefficient (Pearson r was used to determine the relationship between the measurement methods and BMD. Finally ROC curve analysis was performed to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and threshold values for each radiographic measurement method. Results: Intra-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.359 for observer A, and 0.224 for observer B. Inter-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.070 for observer A and 0.051 for observer B. The intra-observer and inter-observer reliability was good and excellent for CTI and CCR for both observers (ICC: 0.920 and ICC: 0.936. There was no correlation between SI and BMD (p=0.818. On the other hand, there was a significant correlation between CTI and CCR and BMD (p=0.001. All measured indices were significantly different (p<0.05 between osteoporotic and non-osteoporotic patients. CTI value less than 0.3 or CCR value less than 0.47 reflects the presence of osteoporosis with 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Conclusion: SI is not reliable and do not correlate with BMD. However, both CTI and CCR showed good and excellent reliability, and each index correlated well with the real BMD

Model-based chatter stability prediction and detection for the turning of a flexible workpiece

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Kaibo; Lian, Zisheng; Gu, Fengshou; Liu, Hunju

2018-02-01

Machining long slender workpieces still presents a technical challenge on the shop floor due to their low stiffness and damping. Regenerative chatter is a major hindrance in machining processes, reducing the geometric accuracies and dynamic stability of the cutting system. This study has been motivated by the fact that chatter occurrence is generally in relation to the cutting position in straight turning of slender workpieces, which has seldom been investigated comprehensively in literature. In the present paper, a predictive chatter model of turning a tailstock supported slender workpiece considering the cutting position change during machining is explored. Based on linear stability analysis and stiffness distribution at different cutting positions along the workpiece, the effect of the cutting tool movement along the length of the workpiece on chatter stability is studied. As a result, an entire stability chart for a single cutting pass is constructed. Through this stability chart the critical cutting condition and the chatter onset location along the workpiece in a turning operation can be estimated. The difference between the predicted tool locations and the experimental results was within 9% at high speed cutting. Also, on the basis of the predictive model the dynamic behavior during chatter that when chatter arises at some cutting location it will continue for a period of time until another specified location is arrived at, can be inferred. The experimental observation is in good agreement with the theoretical inference. In chatter detection respect, besides the delay strategy and overlap processing technique, a relative threshold algorithm is proposed to detect chatter by comparing the spectrum and variance of the acquired acceleration signals with the reference saved during stable cutting. The chatter monitoring method has shown reliability for various machining conditions.

On flexibility

OpenAIRE

Weiss, Christoph R.; Briglauer, Wolfgang

2000-01-01

By building on theoretical work by Mills and Schumann (1985) and Ungern-Sternberg (1990) this paper provides evidence on the determinants of two dimensions of flexibility, the flexibility in adjusting aggregate output over time (tactical flexibility) as well as the ability to switch quickly between products (operational flexibility). Econometric analysis of a sample of 40.000 farms in Upper-Austria for the period 1980 to 1990 suggests that larger full-time farms operated by younger, better ed...

Flexible Electrostatic Technologies for Capture and Handling, Phase 1

Science.gov (United States)

Bryan, Thomas

2015-01-01

Fundamental to many of NASA's in-space transportation missions is the capture and handling of various objects and vehicles in various orbits for servicing, debris disposal, sample retrieval, and assembly without the benefit of sufficient grapple fixtures and docking ports. To perform similar material handling tasks on Earth, pincher grippers, suction grippers, or magnetic chucks are used, but are unable to reliably grip aluminum and composite spacecraft, insulation, radiators, solar arrays, or extra-terrestrial objects in the vacuum of outer space without dedicated handles in the right places. The electronic Flexible Electrostatic Technologies for space Capture and Handling (FETCH) will enable reliable and compliant gripping (soft dock) of practically any object in various orbits or surfaces without dedicated mechanical features, very low impact capture, and built-in proximity sensing without any conventional actuators. Originally developed to handle semiconductor and glass wafers during vacuum chamber processing without contamination, the normal rigid wafer handling chucks are replaced with thin metal foil segments laminated in flexible insulation driven by commercial off-the-shelf solid state, high-voltage power supplies. Preliminary testing in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC's) Flat Floor Robotics Lab demonstrated compliant alignment and gripping with a full-sized, 150-lb microsat mockup and translation before a clean release with a flip of a switch. The flexible electrostatic gripper pads can be adapted to various space applications with different sizes, shapes, and foil electrode layouts even with openings through the gripper pads for addition of guidance sensors or injection of permanent adhesives. With gripping forces estimated between 0.5 and 2.5 lb/in2 or 70-300 lb/ft2 of surface contact, the FETCH can turn on and off rapidly and repeatedly to enable sample handling, soft docking, in-space assembly, precision relocation, and surface translation

Final Report for the Virtual Reliability Realization System LDRD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DELLIN, THEODORE A.; HENDERSON, CHRISTOPHER L.; O' TOOLE, EDWARD J.

2000-12-01

Current approaches to reliability are not adequate to keep pace with the need for faster, better and cheaper products and systems. This is especially true in high consequence of failure applications. The original proposal for the LDRD was to look at this challenge and see if there was a new paradigm that could make reliability predictions, along with a quantitative estimate of the risk in that prediction, in a way that was faster, better and cheaper. Such an approach would be based on the underlying science models that are the backbone of reliability predictions. The new paradigm would be implemented in two software tools: the Virtual Reliability Realization System (VRRS) and the Reliability Expert System (REX). The three-year LDRD was funded at a reduced level for the first year ($120K vs. $250K) and not renewed. Because of the reduced funding, we concentrated on the initial development of the expertise system. We developed an interactive semiconductor calculation tool needed for reliability analyses. We also were able to generate a basic functional system using Microsoft Siteserver Commerce Edition and Microsoft Sequel Server. The base system has the capability to store Office documents from multiple authors, and has the ability to track and charge for usage. The full outline of the knowledge model has been incorporated as well as examples of various types of content.

The interference of flexible working times with the circadian temperature rhythm--a predictor of impairment to health and well-being?

Science.gov (United States)

Giebel, Ole; Wirtz, Anna; Nachreiner, Friedhelm

2008-04-01

In order to analyze whether impairments to health and well-being under flexible working hours can be predicted from specific characteristics of the work schedules, periodic components in flexible working hours and their interference with the circadian temperature rhythm were analyzed applying univariate and bivariate spectrum analyses to both time series. The resulting indicators of spectral power and phase shift of these components were then related to reported health impairments using regression analysis. The results show that a suppression of both the 24 and the 168 h components in the work schedules (i.e., a lack of periodicity) can be used to predict reported health impairments, and that if there are relatively strong 24 and 168 h components left in the work schedules, their phase difference with the temperature rhythm (as an indicator of the interference between working time and the circadian rhythm) further predicts impairment. The results indicate that the periodicity of working hours and the amount of (circadian) desynchronization induced by flexible work schedules can be used for predicting the impairing effects of flexible work schedules on health and well-being. The results can thus be used for evaluating and designing flexible shift rosters.

Reliability analysis of minimum energy on target for laser facilities with more beam lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Guangyu

2008-01-01

Shot reliability performance measures of laser facilities with more beam lines pertain to three categories: minimum-energy-on-target, power balance, and shot diagnostics. Accounting for symmetry of NIF beam line design and similarity of subset reliability in a same partition, a fault tree of meeting minimum-energy-on-target for the large laser facility shot of type K and a simplified method are presented, which are used to analyze hypothetic reliability of partition subsets in order to get trends of influences increasing number of beam lines and diverse shot types of large laser facilities on their shot reliability. Finally, it finds that improving component reliability is more crucial for laser facilities with more beam lines in comparison with those with beam lines and functional diversity from design flexibility is greatly helpful for improving shot reliability. (authors)

Macroscopic travel time reliability diagrams for freeway networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tu, H.; Li, H.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Knoop, V.L.; Sun, L.

2013-01-01

Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators of transport system performance. Knowledge of the mechanisms of travel time unreliability enables the derivation of explanatory models with which travel time reliability can be predicted and utilized in traffic management.

CMOS compatible fabrication of flexible and semi-transparent FeRAM on ultra-thin bulk monocrystalline silicon (100) fabric

KAUST Repository

Ghoneim, Mohamed T.; Hanna, Amir; Hussain, Muhammad Mustafa

2014-01-01

Commercialization of flexible electronics requires reliable, high performance, ultra-compact and low power devices. To achieve them, we fabricate traditional electronics on bulk mono-crystalline silicon (100) and transform the top portion into an ultra-thin flexible silicon fabric with prefabricated devices, preserving ultra-large-scale-integration density and same device performance. This can be done in a cost effective manner due to its full compatibility with standard CMOS processes. In this paper, using the same approach, for the first time we demonstrate a ferroelectric random access memory (FeRAM) cell on flexible silicon fabric platform and assess its functionality and practical potential.

CMOS compatible fabrication of flexible and semi-transparent FeRAM on ultra-thin bulk monocrystalline silicon (100) fabric

KAUST Repository

Ghoneim, Mohamed T.

2014-08-01

Commercialization of flexible electronics requires reliable, high performance, ultra-compact and low power devices. To achieve them, we fabricate traditional electronics on bulk mono-crystalline silicon (100) and transform the top portion into an ultra-thin flexible silicon fabric with prefabricated devices, preserving ultra-large-scale-integration density and same device performance. This can be done in a cost effective manner due to its full compatibility with standard CMOS processes. In this paper, using the same approach, for the first time we demonstrate a ferroelectric random access memory (FeRAM) cell on flexible silicon fabric platform and assess its functionality and practical potential.

Flexible PZT Thin Film Tactile Sensor for Biomedical Monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Jong Wu

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the development of tactile sensors using the sol-gel process to deposit a PZT thin-film from 250 nm to 1 μm on a flexible stainless steel substrate. The PZT thin-film tactile sensor can be used to measure human pulses from several areas, including carotid, brachial, finger, ankle, radial artery, and the apical region. Flexible PZT tactile sensors can overcome the diverse topology of various human regions and sense the corresponding signals from human bodies. The measured arterial pulse waveform can be used to diagnose hypertension and cardiac failure in patients. The proposed sensors have several advantages, such as flexibility, reliability, high strain, low cost, simple fabrication, and low temperature processing. The PZT thin-film deposition process includes a pyrolysis process at 150 °C/500 °C for 10/5 min, followed by an annealing process at 650 °C for 10 min. Finally, the consistent pulse wave velocity (PWV was demonstrated based on human pulse measurements from apical to radial, brachial to radial, and radial to ankle. It is characterized that the sensitivity of our PZT-based tactile sensor was approximately 0.798 mV/g.

Flexible PZT thin film tactile sensor for biomedical monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Hong-Jie; Tian, Wei-Cheng; Wu, Wen-Jong

2013-04-25

This paper presents the development of tactile sensors using the sol-gel process to deposit a PZT thin-film from 250 nm to 1 μm on a flexible stainless steel substrate. The PZT thin-film tactile sensor can be used to measure human pulses from several areas, including carotid, brachial, finger, ankle, radial artery, and the apical region. Flexible PZT tactile sensors can overcome the diverse topology of various human regions and sense the corresponding signals from human bodies. The measured arterial pulse waveform can be used to diagnose hypertension and cardiac failure in patients. The proposed sensors have several advantages, such as flexibility, reliability, high strain, low cost, simple fabrication, and low temperature processing. The PZT thin-film deposition process includes a pyrolysis process at 150 °C/500 °C for 10/5 min, followed by an annealing process at 650 °C for 10 min. Finally, the consistent pulse wave velocity (PWV) was demonstrated based on human pulse measurements from apical to radial, brachial to radial, and radial to ankle. It is characterized that the sensitivity of our PZT-based tactile sensor was approximately 0.798 mV/g.

Balance and flexibility.

Science.gov (United States)

2003-12-01

The 'work-life balance' and flexible working are currently key buzz terms in the NHS. Those looking for more information on these topics should visit Flexibility at www.flexibility.co.uk for a host of resources designed to support new ways of working, including information on flexible workers and flexible rostering, the legal balancing act for work-life balance and home working.

Reliability and validity in a nutshell.

Science.gov (United States)

Bannigan, Katrina; Watson, Roger

2009-12-01

To explore and explain the different concepts of reliability and validity as they are related to measurement instruments in social science and health care. There are different concepts contained in the terms reliability and validity and these are often explained poorly and there is often confusion between them. To develop some clarity about reliability and validity a conceptual framework was built based on the existing literature. The concepts of reliability, validity and utility are explored and explained. Reliability contains the concepts of internal consistency and stability and equivalence. Validity contains the concepts of content, face, criterion, concurrent, predictive, construct, convergent (and divergent), factorial and discriminant. In addition, for clinical practice and research, it is essential to establish the utility of a measurement instrument. To use measurement instruments appropriately in clinical practice, the extent to which they are reliable, valid and usable must be established.

Design of piezoelectric transducer layer with electromagnetic shielding and high connection reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Shi, Xiaoling; Huang, Tianxiang

2012-01-01

Piezoelectric transducer (PZT) and Lamb wave based structural health monitoring (SHM) method have been widely studied for on-line SHM of high-performance structures. To monitor large-scale structures, a dense PZTs array is required. In order to improve the placement efficiency and reduce the wire burden of the PZTs array, the concept of the piezoelectric transducers layer (PSL) was proposed. The PSL consists of PZTs, a flexible interlayer with printed wires and signal input/output interface. For on-line SHM on real aircraft structures, there are two main issues on electromagnetic interference and connection reliability of the PSL. To address the issues, an electromagnetic shielding design method of the PSL to reduce spatial electromagnetic noise and crosstalk is proposed and a combined welding–cementation process based connection reliability design method is proposed to enhance the connection reliability between the PZTs and the flexible interlayer. Two experiments on electromagnetic interference suppression are performed to validate the shielding design of the PSL. The experimental results show that the amplitudes of the spatial electromagnetic noise and crosstalk output from the shielded PSL developed by this paper are − 15 dB and − 25 dB lower than those of the ordinary PSL, respectively. Other two experiments on temperature durability ( − 55 °C–80 °C ) and strength durability (160–1600με, one million load cycles) are applied to the PSL to validate the connection reliability. The low repeatability errors (less than 3% and less than 5%, respectively) indicate that the developed PSL is of high connection reliability and long fatigue life. (paper)

Vibration of rotating-shaft design spindles with flexible bases

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Chaw-Wu

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate an accurate mathematical model predicting forced vibration of rotating-shaft HDD spindle motors with flexible stationary parts. The mathematical model consists of three parts: a rotating part, a stationary part, and bearings. The rotating part includes a flexible hub, a flexible shaft press-fit into the hub, and N elastic disks mounted on the hub. The stationary part can include motor bracket (stator), base casting, and top cover. The bearings under consideration can be ball bearings or hydrodynamic bearings (HDB). The rotating disks are modelled through the classical plate theory. The rotating part (except the disks) and the stationary part are modelled through finite element analyses (FEA). With mode shapes and natural frequencies obtained from FEA, the kinetic and potential energies of the rotating and stationary parts are formulated and discretized to compensate for the gyroscopic effects from rotation. Finally, use of Lagrange equation results in the equations of motion. To verify the mathematical model, frequency response functions are measured experimentally for an HDB spindle carrying two identical disks at motor and drive levels. Experimental measurements agree very well with theoretical predictions not only in resonance frequency but also in resonance amplitude.

Development and validation of resource flexibility measures for manufacturing industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gulshan Chauhan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Global competition and ever changing customers demand have made manufacturing organizations to rapidly adjust to complexities, uncertainties, and changes. Therefore, flexibility in manufacturing resources is necessary to respond cost effectively and rapidly to changing production needs and requirements.  Ability of manufacturing resources to dynamically reallocate from one stage of a production process to another in response to shifting bottlenecks is recognized as resource flexibility. This paper aims to develop and validate resource flexibility measures for manufacturing industry that could be used by managers/ practitioners in assessing and improving the status of resource flexibility for the optimum utilization of resources. Design/methodology/approach: The study involves survey carried out in Indian manufacturing industry using a questionnaire to assess the status of various aspects of resource flexibility and their relationships. A questionnaire was specially designed covering various parameters of resource flexibility. Its reliability was checked by finding the value of Cronback alpha (0.8417. Relative weightage of various measures was found out by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP. Pearson’s coefficient of correlation analysis was carried out to find out relationships between various parameters. Findings: From detailed review of literature on resource flexibility, 17 measures of resource flexibility and 47 variables were identified. The questionnaire included questions on all these measures and parameters. ‘Ability of machines to perform diverse set of operations’ and ability of workers to work on different machines’ emerged to be important measures with contributing weightage of 20.19% and 17.58% respectively.  All the measures were found to be significantly correlated with overall resource flexibility except ‘training of workers’, as shown by Pearson’s coefficient of correlation. This indicates that

Striatal volume predicts level of video game skill acquisition.

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B; Prakash, Ruchika S; Voss, Michelle W; Graybiel, Ann M; Simons, Daniel J; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F

2010-11-01

Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks.

A Taxonomy for Modeling Flexibility and a Computationally Efficient Algorithm for Dispatch in Smart Grids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Mette Højgaard; Edlund, Kristian; Hansen, Lars Henrik

2013-01-01

The word flexibility is central to Smart Grid literature, but still a formal definition of flexibility is pending. This paper present a taxonomy for flexibility modeling denoted Buckets, Batteries and Bakeries. We consider a direct control Virtual Power Plant (VPP), which is given the task...... of servicing a portfolio of flexible consumers by use of a fluctuating power supply. Based on the developed taxonomy we first prove that no causal optimal dispatch strategies exist for the considered problem. We then present two heuristic algorithms for solving the balancing task: Predictive Balancing...

Durability and Reliability of Large Diameter HDPE Pipe for Water Main Applications (Web Report 4485)

Science.gov (United States)

Research validates HDPE as a suitable material for use in municipal piping systems, and more research may help users maximize their understanding of its durability and reliability. Overall, corrosion resistance, hydraulic efficiency, flexibility, abrasion resistance, toughness, f...

On reliable discovery of molecular signatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Björkegren Johan

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular signatures are sets of genes, proteins, genetic variants or other variables that can be used as markers for a particular phenotype. Reliable signature discovery methods could yield valuable insight into cell biology and mechanisms of human disease. However, it is currently not clear how to control error rates such as the false discovery rate (FDR in signature discovery. Moreover, signatures for cancer gene expression have been shown to be unstable, that is, difficult to replicate in independent studies, casting doubts on their reliability. Results We demonstrate that with modern prediction methods, signatures that yield accurate predictions may still have a high FDR. Further, we show that even signatures with low FDR may fail to replicate in independent studies due to limited statistical power. Thus, neither stability nor predictive accuracy are relevant when FDR control is the primary goal. We therefore develop a general statistical hypothesis testing framework that for the first time provides FDR control for signature discovery. Our method is demonstrated to be correct in simulation studies. When applied to five cancer data sets, the method was able to discover molecular signatures with 5% FDR in three cases, while two data sets yielded no significant findings. Conclusion Our approach enables reliable discovery of molecular signatures from genome-wide data with current sample sizes. The statistical framework developed herein is potentially applicable to a wide range of prediction problems in bioinformatics.

Time-variant reliability assessment through equivalent stochastic process transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zequn; Chen, Wei

2016-01-01

Time-variant reliability measures the probability that an engineering system successfully performs intended functions over a certain period of time under various sources of uncertainty. In practice, it is computationally prohibitive to propagate uncertainty in time-variant reliability assessment based on expensive or complex numerical models. This paper presents an equivalent stochastic process transformation approach for cost-effective prediction of reliability deterioration over the life cycle of an engineering system. To reduce the high dimensionality, a time-independent reliability model is developed by translating random processes and time parameters into random parameters in order to equivalently cover all potential failures that may occur during the time interval of interest. With the time-independent reliability model, an instantaneous failure surface is attained by using a Kriging-based surrogate model to identify all potential failure events. To enhance the efficacy of failure surface identification, a maximum confidence enhancement method is utilized to update the Kriging model sequentially. Then, the time-variant reliability is approximated using Monte Carlo simulations of the Kriging model where system failures over a time interval are predicted by the instantaneous failure surface. The results of two case studies demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to accurately predict the time evolution of system reliability while requiring much less computational efforts compared with the existing analytical approach. - Highlights: • Developed a new approach for time-variant reliability analysis. • Proposed a novel stochastic process transformation procedure to reduce the dimensionality. • Employed Kriging models with confidence-based adaptive sampling scheme to enhance computational efficiency. • The approach is effective for handling random process in time-variant reliability analysis. • Two case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy

A Structured Light Scanner for Hyper Flexible Industrial Automation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kent; Pedersen, Jeppe; Sølund, Thomas

2014-01-01

A current trend in industrial automation implies a need for doing automatic scene understanding, from optical 3D sensors, which in turn imposes a need for a lightweight and reliable 3D optical sensor to be mounted on a collaborative robot e.g., Universal Robot UR5 or Kuka LWR. Here, we empirically...... contribute to the robustness of the system. Hereby, we demonstrate that structured light scanning is a technology well suited for hyper flexible industrial automation, by proposing an appropriate system....

SIMON. A computer program for reliability and statistical analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. Program description and manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kongsoe, H.E.; Lauridsen, K.

1993-09-01

SIMON is a program for calculation of reliability and statistical analysis. The program is of the Monte Carlo type, and it is designed with high flexibility, and has a large potential for application to complex problems like reliability analyses of very large systems and of systems, where complex modelling or knowledge of special details are required. Examples of application of the program, including input and output, for reliability and statistical analysis are presented. (au) (3 tabs., 3 ills., 5 refs.)

Thermophysical properties of supercritical water and bond flexibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Shvab, I; Sadus, Richard J

2015-07-01

Molecular dynamics results are reported for the thermodynamic properties of supercritical water using examples of both rigid (TIP4P/2005) and flexible (TIP4P/2005f) transferable interaction potentials. Data are reported for pressure, isochoric and isobaric heat capacities, the thermal expansion coefficient, isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities, Joule-Thomson coefficient, speed of sound, self-diffusion coefficient, viscosities, and thermal conductivity. Many of these properties have unusual behavior in the supercritical phase such as maximum and minimum values. The effectiveness of bond flexibility on predicting these properties is determined by comparing the results to experimental data. The influence of the intermolecular potential on these properties is both variable and state point dependent. In the vicinity of the critical density, the rigid and flexible potentials yield very different values for the compressibilities, heat capacities, and thermal expansion coefficient, whereas the self-diffusion coefficient, viscosities, and thermal conductivities are much less potential dependent. Although the introduction of bond flexibility is a computationally expedient way to improve the accuracy of an intermolecular potential, it can be counterproductive in some cases and it is not an adequate replacement for incorporating the effects of polarization.

Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Hoeven, N.V.

2016-01-01

High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

Functional Design of Dielectric-Metal-Dielectric-Based Thin-Film Encapsulation with Heat Transfer and Flexibility for Flexible Displays.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Choi, Seungyeop; Jeon, Yongmin; Kim, Hyuncheol; Chang, Ki Soo; Choi, Kyung Cheol

2017-08-16

In this study, a new and efficient dielectric-metal-dielectric-based thin-film encapsulation (DMD-TFE) with an inserted Ag thin film is proposed to guarantee the reliability of flexible displays by improving the barrier properties, mechanical flexibility, and heat dissipation, which are considered to be essential requirements for organic light-emitting diode (OLED) encapsulation. The DMD-TFE, which is composed of Al 2 O 3 , Ag, and a silica nanoparticle-embedded sol-gel hybrid nanocomposite, shows a water vapor transmission rate of 8.70 × 10 -6 g/m 2 /day and good mechanical reliability at a bending radius of 30 mm, corresponding to 0.41% strain for 1000 bending cycles. The electrical performance of a thin-film encapsulated phosphorescent organic light-emitting diode (PHOLED) was identical to that of a glass-lid encapsulated PHOLED. The operational lifetimes of the thin-film encapsulated and glass-lid encapsulated PHOLEDs are 832 and 754 h, respectively. After 80 days, the thin-film encapsulated PHOLED did not show performance degradation or dark spots on the cell image in a shelf-lifetime test. Finally, the difference in lifetime of the OLED devices in relation to the presence and thickness of a Ag film was analyzed by applying various TFE structures to fluorescent organic light-emitting diodes (FOLEDs) that could generate high amounts of heat. To demonstrate the difference in heat dissipation effect among the TFE structures, the saturated temperatures of the encapsulated FOLEDs were measured from the back side surface of the glass substrate, and were found to be 67.78, 65.12, 60.44, and 39.67 °C after all encapsulated FOLEDs were operated at an initial luminance of 10 000 cd/m 2 for sufficient heat generation. Furthermore, the operational lifetime tests of the encapsulated FOLED devices showed results that were consistent with the measurements of real-time temperature profiles taken with an infrared camera. A multifunctional hybrid thin-film encapsulation

Reliability analysis of shutdown system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, C. Senthil; John Arul, A.; Pal Singh, Om; Suryaprakasa Rao, K.

2005-01-01

This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of Shutdown System (SDS) of Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Reliability analysis carried out using Fault Tree Analysis predicts a value of 3.5 x 10 -8 /de for failure of shutdown function in case of global faults and 4.4 x 10 -8 /de for local faults. Based on 20 de/y, the frequency of shutdown function failure is 0.7 x 10 -6 /ry, which meets the reliability target, set by the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. The reliability is limited by Common Cause Failure (CCF) of actuation part of SDS and to a lesser extent CCF of electronic components. The failure frequency of individual systems is -3 /ry, which also meets the safety criteria. Uncertainty analysis indicates a maximum error factor of 5 for the top event unavailability

Measuring Inhibition and Cognitive Flexibility in Friedreich Ataxia.

Science.gov (United States)

Corben, Louise A; Klopper, Felicity; Stagnitti, Monique; Georgiou-Karistianis, Nellie; Bradshaw, John L; Rance, Gary; Delatycki, Martin B

2017-08-01

Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is an autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disorder with subtle impact on cognition. Inhibitory processes and cognitive flexibility were examined in FRDA by assessing the ability to suppress a predictable verbal response. We administered the Hayling Sentence Completion Test (HSCT), the Trail Making Test, and the Stroop Test to 43 individuals with FRDA and 42 gender- and age-matched control participants. There were no significant group differences in performance on the Stroop or Trail Making Test whereas significant impairment in cognitive flexibility including the ability to predict and inhibit a pre-potent response as measured in the HSCT was evident in individuals with FRDA. These deficits did not correlate with clinical characteristics of FRDA (age of disease onset, disease duration, number of guanine-adenine-adenine repeats on the shorter or larger FXN allele, or Friedreich Ataxia Rating Scale score), suggesting that such impairment may not be related to the disease process in a straightforward way. The observed specific impairment of inhibition and predictive capacity in individuals with FRDA on the HSCT task, in the absence of impairment in associated executive functions, supports cerebellar dysfunction in conjunction with disturbance to cortico-thalamo-cerebellar connectivity, perhaps via inability to access frontal areas necessary for successful task completion.

An experimental study on the key fretting variables for flexible marine risers

OpenAIRE

O’Halloran, S.M.; Harte, A.M.; Shipway, P.H.; Leen, S.B.

2018-01-01

This paper presents an experimental investigation into the effects of contact conformity, contact pressure and displacement amplitude on the gross-slip fretting behaviour grease-lubricated cylinder-on-flat contacts in the context of flexible marine riser pressure armour wire, and compares behaviour with that observed in unlubricated conditions. Characterisation of friction and wear is critical to fretting fatigue life prediction in flexible risers since friction directly controls trailing-edg...

A modeling method for hybrid energy behaviors in flexible machining systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yufeng; He, Yan; Wang, Yan; Wang, Yulin; Yan, Ping; Lin, Shenlong

2015-01-01

Increasingly environmental and economic pressures have led to great concerns regarding the energy consumption of machining systems. Understanding energy behaviors of flexible machining systems is a prerequisite for improving energy efficiency of these systems. This paper proposes a modeling method to predict energy behaviors in flexible machining systems. The hybrid energy behaviors not only depend on the technical specification related of machine tools and workpieces, but are significantly affected by individual production scenarios. In the method, hybrid energy behaviors are decomposed into Structure-related energy behaviors, State-related energy behaviors, Process-related energy behaviors and Assignment-related energy behaviors. The modeling method for the hybrid energy behaviors is proposed based on Colored Timed Object-oriented Petri Net (CTOPN). The former two types of energy behaviors are modeled by constructing the structure of CTOPN, whist the latter two types of behaviors are simulated by applying colored tokens and associated attributes. Machining on two workpieces in the experimental workshop were undertaken to verify the proposed modeling method. The results showed that the method can provide multi-perspective transparency on energy consumption related to machine tools, workpieces as well as production management, and is particularly suitable for flexible manufacturing system when frequent changes in machining systems are often encountered. - Highlights: • Energy behaviors in flexible machining systems are modeled in this paper. • Hybrid characteristics of energy behaviors are examined from multiple viewpoints. • Flexible modeling method CTOPN is used to predict the hybrid energy behaviors. • This work offers a multi-perspective transparency on energy consumption

Modified personal interviews: resurrecting reliable personal interviews for admissions?

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Mark D; Kulasegaram, Kulamakan Mahan; Woods, Nicole N; Fechtig, Lindsey; Anderson, Geoff

2012-10-01

Traditional admissions personal interviews provide flexible faculty-student interactions but are plagued by low inter-interview reliability. Axelson and Kreiter (2009) retrospectively showed that multiple independent sampling (MIS) may improve reliability of personal interviews; thus, the authors incorporated MIS into the admissions process for medical students applying to the University of Toronto's Leadership Education and Development Program (LEAD). They examined the reliability and resource demands of this modified personal interview (MPI) format. In 2010-2011, LEAD candidates submitted written applications, which were used to screen for participation in the MPI process. Selected candidates completed four brief (10-12 minutes) independent MPIs each with a different interviewer. The authors blueprinted MPI questions to (i.e., aligned them with) leadership attributes, and interviewers assessed candidates' eligibility on a five-point Likert-type scale. The authors analyzed inter-interview reliability using the generalizability theory. Sixteen candidates submitted applications; 10 proceeded to the MPI stage. Reliability of the written application components was 0.75. The MPI process had overall inter-interview reliability of 0.79. Correlation between the written application and MPI scores was 0.49. A decision study showed acceptable reliability of 0.74 with only three MPIs scored using one global rating. Furthermore, a traditional admissions interview format would take 66% more time than the MPI format. The MPI format, used during the LEAD admissions process, achieved high reliability with minimal faculty resources. The MPI format's reliability and effective resource use were possible through MIS and employment of expert interviewers. MPIs may be useful for other admissions tasks.

Integration of NDE Reliability and Fracture Mechanics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, F. L.; Doctor, S. R.; Heas!er, P. G.; Morris, C. J.; Pitman, S. G.; Selby, G. P.; Simonen, F. A.

1981-03-01

The Pacific Northwest Laboratory is conducting a four-phase program for measuring and evaluating the effectiveness and reliability of in-service inspection (lSI} performed on the primary system piping welds of commercial light water reactors (LWRs). Phase I of the program is complete. A survey was made of the state of practice for ultrasonic rsr of LWR primary system piping welds. Fracture mechanics calculations were made to establish required nondestrutive testing sensitivities. In general, it was found that fatigue flaws less than 25% of wall thickness would not grow to failure within an inspection interval of 10 years. However, in some cases failure could occur considerably faster. Statistical methods for predicting and measuring the effectiveness and reliability of lSI were developed and will be applied in the "Round Robin Inspections" of Phase II. Methods were also developed for the production of flaws typical of those found in service. Samples fabricated by these methods wilI be used in Phase II to test inspection effectiveness and reliability. Measurements were made of the influence of flaw characteristics {i.e., roughness, tightness, and orientation) on inspection reliability. These measurernents, as well as the predictions of a statistical model for inspection reliability, indicate that current reporting and recording sensitivities are inadequate.

Increase of operational reliability and durability of square sectoral working bodies of flexible screw conveyors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O.L. Lyashuk

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The construction of the device for guiding screw sectional working bodies of increased operational reliability and durability and the method of determination of the force of guiding the design parameters are given. Two main methods of manufacturing screw mechanisms of machines of various service purposes were investigated and it was established that twisted screws, in terms of their strength and performance, considerably exceed rolling stock. The design of the device for manufacturing screw working bodies of conveyors by means of cutting by periodic and continuous methods, as the most reliable in operation, is developed. The specifics of their work are due to various operations of technological processes, as well as physical and mechanical properties of goods, determine the nomenclature and design parameters of screw mechanisms (SM. In studying the processes of forming screw spirals, the basic precision characteristics of the methods of drilling and rolling are established. A comparative study of two main methods in terms of their operational and durable capabilities has been carried out. An important factor determining the reliability and durability of a screw is the difference in the thickness of the inner and outer edges.

Predicting the tolerated sequences for proteins and protein interfaces using RosettaBackrub flexible backbone design.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin A Smith

Full Text Available Predicting the set of sequences that are tolerated by a protein or protein interface, while maintaining a desired function, is useful for characterizing protein interaction specificity and for computationally designing sequence libraries to engineer proteins with new functions. Here we provide a general method, a detailed set of protocols, and several benchmarks and analyses for estimating tolerated sequences using flexible backbone protein design implemented in the Rosetta molecular modeling software suite. The input to the method is at least one experimentally determined three-dimensional protein structure or high-quality model. The starting structure(s are expanded or refined into a conformational ensemble using Monte Carlo simulations consisting of backrub backbone and side chain moves in Rosetta. The method then uses a combination of simulated annealing and genetic algorithm optimization methods to enrich for low-energy sequences for the individual members of the ensemble. To emphasize certain functional requirements (e.g. forming a binding interface, interactions between and within parts of the structure (e.g. domains can be reweighted in the scoring function. Results from each backbone structure are merged together to create a single estimate for the tolerated sequence space. We provide an extensive description of the protocol and its parameters, all source code, example analysis scripts and three tests applying this method to finding sequences predicted to stabilize proteins or protein interfaces. The generality of this method makes many other applications possible, for example stabilizing interactions with small molecules, DNA, or RNA. Through the use of within-domain reweighting and/or multistate design, it may also be possible to use this method to find sequences that stabilize particular protein conformations or binding interactions over others.

Thrust generation by a heaving flexible foil: Resonance, nonlinearities, and optimality

Science.gov (United States)

Paraz, Florine; Schouveiler, Lionel; Eloy, Christophe

2016-01-01

Flexibility of marine animal fins has been thought to enhance swimming performance. However, despite numerous experimental and numerical studies on flapping flexible foils, there is still no clear understanding of the effect of flexibility and flapping amplitude on thrust generation and swimming efficiency. Here, to address this question, we combine experiments on a model system and a weakly nonlinear analysis. Experiments consist in immersing a flexible rectangular plate in a uniform flow and forcing this plate into a heaving motion at its leading edge. A complementary theoretical model is developed assuming a two-dimensional inviscid problem. In this model, nonlinear effects are taken into account by considering a transverse resistive drag. Under these hypotheses, a modal decomposition of the system motion allows us to predict the plate response amplitude and the generated thrust, as a function of the forcing amplitude and frequency. We show that this model can correctly predict the experimental data on plate kinematic response and thrust generation, as well as other data found in the literature. We also discuss the question of efficiency in the context of bio-inspired propulsion. Using the proposed model, we show that the optimal propeller for a given thrust and a given swimming speed is achieved when the actuating frequency is tuned to a resonance of the system, and when the optimal forcing amplitude scales as the square root of the required thrust.

Reliability analysis of cluster-based ad-hoc networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, Jason L.; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

2008-01-01

The mobile ad-hoc wireless network (MAWN) is a new and emerging network scheme that is being employed in a variety of applications. The MAWN varies from traditional networks because it is a self-forming and dynamic network. The MAWN is free of infrastructure and, as such, only the mobile nodes comprise the network. Pairs of nodes communicate either directly or through other nodes. To do so, each node acts, in turn, as a source, destination, and relay of messages. The virtue of a MAWN is the flexibility this provides; however, the challenge for reliability analyses is also brought about by this unique feature. The variability and volatility of the MAWN configuration makes typical reliability methods (e.g. reliability block diagram) inappropriate because no single structure or configuration represents all manifestations of a MAWN. For this reason, new methods are being developed to analyze the reliability of this new networking technology. New published methods adapt to this feature by treating the configuration probabilistically or by inclusion of embedded mobility models. This paper joins both methods together and expands upon these works by modifying the problem formulation to address the reliability analysis of a cluster-based MAWN. The cluster-based MAWN is deployed in applications with constraints on networking resources such as bandwidth and energy. This paper presents the problem's formulation, a discussion of applicable reliability metrics for the MAWN, and illustration of a Monte Carlo simulation method through the analysis of several example networks

Reliability assessment of passive containment isolation system using APSRA methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nayak, A.K.; Jain, Vikas; Gartia, M.R.; Srivastava, A.; Prasad, Hari; Anthony, A.; Gaikwad, A.J.; Bhatia, S.; Sinha, R.K.

2008-01-01

In this paper, a methodology known as APSRA (Assessment of Passive System ReliAbility) has been employed for evaluation of the reliability of passive systems. The methodology has been applied to the passive containment isolation system (PCIS) of the Indian advanced heavy water reactor (AHWR). In the APSRA methodology, the passive system reliability evaluation is based on the failure probability of the system to carryout the desired function. The methodology first determines the operational characteristics of the system and the failure conditions by assigning a predetermined failure criterion. The failure surface is predicted using a best estimate code considering deviations of the operating parameters from their nominal states, which affect the PCIS performance. APSRA proposes to compare the code predictions with the test data to generate the uncertainties on the failure parameter prediction, which is later considered in the code for accurate prediction of failure surface of the system. Once the failure surface of the system is predicted, the cause of failure is examined through root diagnosis, which occurs mainly due to failure of mechanical components. The failure probability of these components is evaluated through a classical PSA treatment using the generic data. The reliability of the PCIS is evaluated from the probability of availability of the components for the success of the passive containment isolation system

High-Sensitivity and Low-Power Flexible Schottky Hydrogen Sensor Based on Silicon Nanomembrane.

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Minkyu; Yun, Jeonghoon; Kwon, Donguk; Kim, Kyuyoung; Park, Inkyu

2018-04-18

High-performance and low-power flexible Schottky diode-based hydrogen sensor was developed. The sensor was fabricated by releasing Si nanomembrane (SiNM) and transferring onto a plastic substrate. After the transfer, palladium (Pd) and aluminum (Al) were selectively deposited as a sensing material and an electrode, respectively. The top-down fabrication process of flexible Pd/SiNM diode H 2 sensor is facile compared to other existing bottom-up fabricated flexible gas sensors while showing excellent H 2 sensitivity (Δ I/ I 0 > 700-0.5% H 2 concentrations) and fast response time (τ 10-90 = 22 s) at room temperature. In addition, selectivity, humidity, and mechanical tests verify that the sensor has excellent reliability and robustness under various environments. The operating power consumption of the sensor is only in the nanowatt range, which indicates its potential applications in low-power portable and wearable electronics.

Power control flexibilities for grid-connected multi-functional photovoltaic inverters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Yongheng; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

2014-01-01

to reduced cost of energy. To implement the advanced features, a flexible power controller is developed in this paper, which can be configured in the PV inverter and flexibly be changed from one to another. This power control strategy is based on the single-phase PQ theory, and it offers the possibilities...... of ancillary and intelligent services, like Low Voltage Ride-Through (LVRT), reactive power compensation, and reliability-oriented thermal management/control by PV systems is a key to attain higher utilization of solar energy. Those essential functionalities for the future PV inverters can contribute...... to generate appropriate references for the inner current control loop. The references depend on the system conditions and also specific demands from both system operators and customers. Besides, this power control strategy can be implemented in a commercial PV inverter as standardized functions, and also...

A comparative reliability and performance study of different stent designs in terms of mechanical properties: foreshortening, recoil, radial force, and flexibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Dong Bin; Choi, Hyuk; Joo, Sang Min; Kim, Han Ki; Shin, Jae Hee; Hwang, Min Ho; Choi, Jaesoon; Kim, Dong-Gon; Lee, Kwang Ho; Lim, Chun Hak; Yoo, Sun Kook; Lee, Heung-Man; Sun, Kyung

2013-04-01

This study seeks to improve the mechanical performance of stents by conducting reliability performance testing and finite element method (FEM)-based simulations for coronary stents. Three commercially available stent designs and our own new design were tested to measure the factors affecting performance, specifically foreshortening, recoil, radial force, and flexibility. The stents used in the present experiments were 3 mm in working diameter and 18 mm of working length. The results of the experiments indicate that the foreshortening of stents A, B, C, and our new design, D, was equivalent to 2.25, 0.67, 0.46, and 0.41%, respectively. The recoil of stents A, B, C, and D was 6.00, 4.35, 3.50, and 4.36%, respectively. Parallel plate radial force measurements were A, 3.72 ± 0.28 N; B, 3.81 ± 0.32 N; C, 4.35 ± 0.18 N; and D, 4.02 ± 0.24 N. Radial forces determined by applying uniform pressure in the circumferential direction were A, 28.749 ± 0.81 N; B, 32.231 ± 1.80 N; C, 34.522 ± 3.06 N; and D, 42.183 ± 2.84 N. The maximum force of crimped stent at 2.2-mm deflection was 1.01 ± 0.08 N, 0.82 ± 0.08 N, 0.92 ± 0.12 N, and 0.68 ± 0.07 N for each of stents A, B, C and D. The results of this study enabled us to identify several factors to enhance the performance of stents. In comparing these stents, we found that our design, stent D, which was designed by a collaborative team from seven universities, performed better than the commercial stents across all parameter of foreshortening, recoil, radial force, and flexibility. © 2013, Copyright the Authors. Artificial Organs © 2013, International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Reliability-Oriented Design Method for Power Electronic Converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Huai; Zhou, Dao; Blaabjerg, Frede

2013-01-01

Reliability is a crucial performance indicator of power electronic systems in terms of availability, mission accomplishment and life cycle cost. A paradigm shift in the research on reliability of power electronics is going on from simple handbook based calculations (e.g. models in MIL-HDBK-217F h...... and reliability prediction models are provided. A case study on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical component IGBT modules....

Office flexible cystoscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kavoussi, L R; Clayman, R V

1988-11-01

Since the development of the first purpose-built flexible cystoscope in 1984, flexible cystoscopy has become an accepted diagnostic and therapeutic modality. Indeed, it is estimated that more than 10 per cent of practicing urologists are already familiar with this technology. The flexible cystoscope has markedly extended the urologist's ability to examine the bladder, and it has become a valuable adjunct to the rigid cystoscope. Although the operation of this instrument is vastly different from that of its rigid counterpart, with practice, the technique can be learned. After experience is obtained with diagnostic flexible cystoscopy, the urologist will likely prefer this new instrument for bladder inspection, as it provides for a more thorough yet less morbid and less expensive examination. In the future, the development of improved and smaller instrumentation will further extend the therapeutic indications for flexible cystoscopy. Indeed, advances in laser technology are already providing the urologist with 300- to 600-micron (0.9 to 1.8F) flexible probes capable of incision (KTP laser), fulguration (Nd:YAG laser), and stone disintegration (tunable dye laser). Lastly, the skills obtained in using the flexible cystoscope are all readily applicable to the development of dexterity with the already available flexible nephroscope and the more recently developed flexible ureteroscope.

Design of Control System for Flexible Packaging Bags Palletizing Production Line Based on PLC

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Huiping; Chen, Lin; Zhao, Xiaoming; Liu, Zhanyang

Flexible packaging bags palletizing production line is to put the bags in the required area according to particular order and size, in order to finish handling, storage, loading and unloading, transportation and other logistics work of goods. Flexible packaging bags palletizing line is composed of turning bags mechanism, shaping mechanism, indexing mechanism, marshalling mechanism, pushing bags mechanism, pressing bags mechanism, laminating mechanism, elevator, tray warehouse, tray conveyor and loaded tray conveyor. Whether the whole production line can smoothly run depends on each of the above equipment and precision control among them. In this paper the technological process and the control logic of flexible packaging bags palletizing production line is introduced. Palletizing process of the production line realized automation by means of a control system based on programmable logic controller (PLC). It has the advantages of simple structure, reliable and easy maintenance etc.

A human hemi-cornea model for eye irritation testing: quality control of production, reliability and predictive capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Engelke, M; Zorn-Kruppa, M; Gabel, D; Reisinger, K; Rusche, B; Mewes, K R

2013-02-01

We have developed a 3-dimensional human hemi-cornea which comprises an immortalized epithelial cell line and keratocytes embedded in a collagen stroma. In the present study, we have used MTT reduction of the whole tissue to clarify whether the production of this complex 3-D-model is transferable into other laboratories and whether these tissues can be constructed reproducibly. Our results demonstrate the reproducible production of the hemi-cornea model according to standard operation procedures using 15 independent batches of reconstructed hemi-cornea models in two independent laboratories each. Furthermore, the hemi-cornea tissues have been treated with 20 chemicals of different eye-irritating potential under blind conditions to assess the performance and limitations of our test system comparing three different prediction models. The most suitable prediction model revealed an overall in vitro-in vivo concordance of 80% and 70% in the participating laboratories, respectively, and an inter-laboratory concordance of 80%. Sensitivity of the test was 77% and specificity was between 57% and 86% to discriminate classified from non-classified chemicals. We conclude that additional physiologically relevant endpoints in both epithelium and stroma have to be developed for the reliable prediction of all GHS classes of eye irritation in one stand alone test system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The interference of flexible working times with the utility of time: a predictor of social impairment?

Science.gov (United States)

Wirtz, Anna; Giebel, Ole; Schomann, Carsten; Nachreiner, Friedhelm

2008-04-01

Periodic components inherent in actual schedules of flexible working hours and their interference with social rhythms were measured using spectrum analysis. The resulting indicators of periodicity and interference were then related to the reported social impairments of workers. The results show that a suppression of the 24 and the 168 h (seven-day) components (absence of periodicity) in the work schedules predicts reported social impairment. However, even if there are relatively strong 24 and 168 h components left in the work schedules, their interference with the social rhythm (using the phase difference between working hours and the utility of time) further predicts impairment. The results thus indicate that the periodicity of working hours and the amount of (social) desynchronization induced by flexible work schedules can be used both for predicting the impairing effects of the specific work schedules on social well-being as well as for the design of socially acceptable flexible work hours.

Extremely Durable, Flexible Supercapacitors with Greatly Improved Performance at High Temperatures.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sung-Kon; Kim, Hae Jin; Lee, Jong-Chan; Braun, Paul V; Park, Ho Seok

2015-08-25

The reliability and durability of energy storage devices are as important as their essential characteristics (e.g., energy and power density) for stable power output and long lifespan and thus much more crucial under harsh conditions. However, energy storage under extreme conditions is still a big challenge because of unavoidable performance decays and the inevitable damage of components. Here, we report high-temperature operating, flexible supercapacitors (f-SCs) that can provide reliable power output and extreme durability under severe electrochemical, mechanical, and thermal conditions. The outstanding capacitive features (e.g., ∼40% enhancement of the rate capability and a maximum capacitances of 170 F g(-1) and 18.7 mF cm(-2) at 160 °C) are attributed to facilitated ion transport at elevated temperatures. Under high-temperature operation and/or a flexibility test in both static and dynamic modes at elevated temperatures >100 °C, the f-SCs showed extreme long-term stability of 100000 cycles (>93% of initial capacitance value) and mechanical durability after hundreds of bending cycles (at bend angles of 60-180°). Even at 120 °C, the versatile design of tandem serial and parallel f-SCs was demonstrated to provide both desirable energy and power requirements at high temperatures.

Integrated reliability condition monitoring and maintenance of equipment

CERN Document Server

Osarenren, John

2015-01-01

Consider a Viable and Cost-Effective Platform for the Industries of the Future (IOF) Benefit from improved safety, performance, and product deliveries to your customers. Achieve a higher rate of equipment availability, performance, product quality, and reliability. Integrated Reliability: Condition Monitoring and Maintenance of Equipment incorporates reliable engineering and mathematical modeling to help you move toward sustainable development in reliability condition monitoring and maintenance. This text introduces a cost-effective integrated reliability growth monitor, integrated reliability degradation monitor, technological inheritance coefficient sensors, and a maintenance tool that supplies real-time information for predicting and preventing potential failures of manufacturing processes and equipment. The author highlights five key elements that are essential to any improvement program: improving overall equipment and part effectiveness, quality, and reliability; improving process performance with maint...

Two-terminal reliability analyses for a mobile ad hoc wireless network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, Jason L.; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

2007-01-01

Reliability is one of the most important performance measures for emerging technologies. For these systems, shortcomings are often overlooked in early releases as the cutting edge technology overshadows a fragile design. Currently, the proliferation of the mobile ad hoc wireless networks (MAWN) is moving from cutting edge to commodity and thus, reliable performance will be expected. Generally, ad hoc networking is applied for the flexibility and mobility it provides. As a result, military and first responders employ this network scheme and the reliability of the network becomes paramount. To ensure reliability is achieved, one must first be able to analyze and calculate the reliability of the MAWN. This work describes the unique attributes of the MAWN and how the classical analysis of network reliability, where the network configuration is known a priori, can be adjusted to model and analyze this type of network. The methods developed acknowledge the dynamic and scalable nature of the MAWN along with its absence of infrastructure. Thus, the methods rely on a modeling approach that considers the probabilistic formation of different network configurations in a MAWN. Hence, this paper proposes reliability analysis methods that consider the effect of node mobility and the continuous changes in the network's connectivity

Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.

2013-01-01

To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,

Increasing of prediction reliability of calcium carbonate scale formation in heat exchanger of secondary coolant circuits of thermal and nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tret'yakov, O.V.; Kritskij, V.G.; Styazhkin, P.S.

1991-01-01

Calcium carbonate scale formation in the secondary circuit heat exchanger of thermal and nuclear power plants is investigated. A model of calcium-carbonate scale formation providing quite reliable prediction of process running and the possibility of its control affecting the parameters of hydrochemical regime (HCR) is developed. The results can be used when designing the automatic-control system of HCR

Assessing the reliability, predictive and construct validity of historical, clinical and risk management-20 (HCR-20) in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Sada, Andrea; Robles-García, Rebeca; Martínez-López, Nicolás; Hernández-Ramírez, Rafael; Tovilla-Zarate, Carlos-Alfonso; López-Munguía, Fernando; Suárez-Alvarez, Enrique; Ayala, Xochitl; Fresán, Ana

2016-08-01

Assessing dangerousness to gauge the likelihood of future violent behaviour has become an integral part of clinical mental health practice in forensic and non-forensic psychiatric settings, one of the most effective instruments for this being the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20). To examine the HCR-20 factor structure in Mexican psychiatric inpatients and to obtain its predictive validity and reliability for use in this population. In total, 225 patients diagnosed with psychotic, affective or personality disorders were included. The HCR-20 was applied at hospital admission and violent behaviours were assessed during psychiatric hospitalization using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). Construct validity, predictive validity and internal consistency were determined. Violent behaviour remains more severe in patients classified in the high-risk group during hospitalization. Fifteen items displayed adequate communalities in the original designated domains of the HCR-20 and internal consistency of the instruments was high. The HCR-20 is a suitable instrument for predicting violence risk in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

Supply reliability in context to quality regulation. Forecast model for the supply reliability; Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit im Kontext der Qualitaetsregulierung. Prognosemodell fuer die Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quadflieg, Dieter [VDE, Berlin (Germany). FNN-Projektgruppe ' ' Einflussgroessen auf die Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit' '

2011-11-14

The forum network technology / network operations in VDE (FNN) has published a technical note on supply reliability in the context of quality regulation. In the underlying investigations, on the one hand the influencing variables on the supply reliability are analyzed on the basis of FNN fault and availability statistics. On the other stochastic methods are developed that allow a prediction of the stochastic reliability characteristics of each network operator.

Flexible structured high-frequency film bulk acoustic resonator for flexible wireless electronics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Changjian; Shu, Yi; Yang, Yi; Ren, Tian-Ling; Jin, Hao; Dong, Shu-Rong; Chan, Mansun

2015-01-01

Flexible electronics have inspired many novel and very important applications in recent years and various flexible electronic devices such as diodes, transistors, circuits, sensors, and radiofrequency (RF) passive devices including antennas and inductors have been reported. However, the lack of a high-performance RF resonator is one of the key bottlenecks to implement flexible wireless electronics. In this study, for the first time, a novel ultra-flexible structured film bulk acoustic resonator (FBAR) is proposed. The flexible FBAR is fabricated on a flexible polyimide substrate using piezoelectric thin film aluminum nitride (AlN) for acoustic wave excitation. Both the shear wave and longitudinal wave can be excited under the surface interdigital electrodes configuration we proposed. In the case of the thickness extension mode, a flexible resonator with a working frequency as high as of 5.2325 GHz has been realized. The resonators stay fully functional under bending status and after repeated bending and re-flattening operations. This flexible high-frequency resonator will serve as a key building block for the future flexible wireless electronics, greatly expanding the application scope of flexible electronics. (paper)

Quality and reliability management and its applications

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

Integrating development processes, policies, and reliability predictions from the beginning of the product development lifecycle to ensure high levels of product performance and safety, this book helps companies overcome the challenges posed by increasingly complex systems in today’s competitive marketplace.   Examining both research on and practical aspects of product quality and reliability management with an emphasis on applications, the book features contributions written by active researchers and/or experienced practitioners in the field, so as to effectively bridge the gap between theory and practice and address new research challenges in reliability and quality management in practice.    Postgraduates, researchers and practitioners in the areas of reliability engineering and management, amongst others, will find the book to offer a state-of-the-art survey of quality and reliability management and practices.

Basic performance tests on vibration of support structure with flexible plates for ITER tokamak device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeda, Nobukazu; Kakudate, Satoshi; Shibanuma, Kiyoshi

2005-01-01

The vibration experiments of the support structures with flexible plates for the ITER major components such as toroidal field coil (TF coil) and vacuum vessel (VV) were performed using small-sized flexible plates aiming to obtain its basic mechanical characteristics such as dependence of the stiffness on the loading angle. The experimental results obtained by the hammering and frequency sweep tests were agreed each other, so that the experimental method is found to be reliable. In addition, the experimental results were compared with the analytical ones in order to estimate an adequate analytical model for ITER support structure with flexible plates. As a result, the bolt connection of the flexible plates on the base plate strongly affected on the stiffness of the flexible plates. After studies of modeling the bolts, it is found that the analytical results modeling the bolts with finite stiffness only in the axial direction and infinite stiffness in the other directions agree well with the experimental ones. Using this adequate model, the stiffness of the support structure with flexible plates for the ITER major components can be calculated precisely in order to estimate the dynamic behaviors such as eigen modes and amplitude of deformation of the major components of the ITER tokamak device. (author)

Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

2016-08-01

The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

Operational reliability management; Gestao da confiabilidade operacional

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bressan, Edemir [Refinaria Alberto Pasqualini (REFAP), Canoas, RS (Brazil). Setor de Tecnologia de Equipamentos

2000-07-01

It is described the PETROBRAS Alberto Pasqualini Refinery process plant reliability management, strategies, maintenance organizational structure, management processes, predictive and preventive maintenance, condition monitoring techniques, reliability metrics, pointing out a need for close work relationship between production, maintenance and project engineering functions with highly qualified and committed proper teams, in order to reach one of the highest mechanical availability among Latin America refineries. (author)

Failure database and tools for wind turbine availability and reliability analyses. The application of reliability data for selected wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor; Christensen, P.; Winther-Jensen, M.

2000-01-01

The objective of this project was to develop and establish a database for collecting reliability and reliability-related data, for assessing the reliability of wind turbine components and subsystems and wind turbines as a whole, as well as for assessingwind turbine availability while ranking the ...... similar safety systems. The database was established with Microsoft Access DatabaseManagement System, the software for reliability and availability assessments was created with Visual Basic....... the contributions at both the component and system levels. The project resulted in a software package combining a failure database with programs for predicting WTB availability and the reliability of all thecomponents and systems, especially the safety system. The report consists of a description of the theoretical......The objective of this project was to develop and establish a database for collecting reliability and reliability-related data, for assessing the reliability of wind turbine components and subsystems and wind turbines as a whole, as well as for assessingwind turbine availability while ranking...

People consider reliability and cost when verifying their autobiographical memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Kimberley A; Nash, Robert A; Garry, Maryanne

2014-02-01

Because memories are not always accurate, people rely on a variety of strategies to verify whether the events that they remember really did occur. Several studies have examined which strategies people tend to use, but none to date has asked why people opt for certain strategies over others. Here we examined the extent to which people's beliefs about the reliability and the cost of different strategies would determine their strategy selection. Subjects described a childhood memory and then suggested strategies they might use to verify the accuracy of that memory. Next, they rated the reliability and cost of each strategy, and the likelihood that they might use it. Reliability and cost each predicted strategy selection, but a combination of the two ratings provided even greater predictive value. Cost was significantly more influential than reliability, which suggests that a tendency to seek and to value "cheap" information more than reliable information could underlie many real-world memory errors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Steam generator reliability improvement project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blomgren, J.C.; Green, S.J.

1987-01-01

Upon successful completion of its research and development technology transfer program, the Electric Power Research Institute's Steam Generator Owners Group (SGOG II) will disband in December 1986 and be replaced in January 1987 by a successor project, the Steam Generator Reliability Project (SGRP). The new project, funded in the EPRI base program, will continue the emphasis on reliability and life extension that was carried forward by SGOG II. The objectives of SGOG II have been met. Causes and remedies have been identified for tubing corrosion problems, such as stress corrosion cracking and pitting, and steam generator technology has been improved in areas such as tube wear prediction and nondestructive evaluation (NDE). These actions have led to improved reliability of steam generators. Now the owners want to continue with a centrally managed program that builds on what has been learned. The goal is to continue to improve steam generator reliability and solve small problems before they become large problems

Steam generator reliability improvement project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blomgren, J.C.; Green, S.J.

1987-01-01

Upon successful completion of its research and development technology transfer program, the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI's) Steam Generator Owners Group (SGOG II) will disband in December 1986, and be replaced in January 1987, by a successor project, the Steam Generator Reliability Project (SGRP). The new project, funded in the EPRI base program, will continue to emphasize reliability and life extension, which were carried forward by SGOG II. The objectives of SGOG II have been met. Causes and remedies have been identified for tubing corrosion problems such as stress corrosion cracking and pitting, and steam generator technology has been improved in areas such as tube wear prediction and nondestructive evaluation. These actions have led to improved reliability of steam generators. Now the owners want to continue with a centrally managed program that builds on what has been learned. The goal is to continue to improve steam generator reliability and to solve small problems before they become large problems

Forecasting reliability of transformer populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schijndel, van A.; Wetzer, J.; Wouters, P.A.A.F.

2007-01-01

The expected replacement wave in the current power grid faces asset managers with challenging questions. Setting up a replacement strategy and planning calls for a forecast of the long term component reliability. For transformers the future failure probability can be predicted based on the ongoing

Nanofabrication and Nanopatterning of Carbon Nanomaterials for Flexible Electronics

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Junjun

Stretchable electrodes have increasingly drawn attention as a vital component for flexible electronic devices. Carbon nanomaterials such as graphene and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) exhibit properties such as high mechanical flexibility and strength, optical transparency, and electrical conductivity which are naturally required for stretchable electrodes. Graphene growth, nanopatterning, and transfer processes are important steps to use graphene as flexible electrodes. However, advances in the large-area nanofabrication and nanopatterning of carbon nanomaterials such as graphene are necessary to realize the full potential of this technology. In particular, laser interference lithography (LIL), a fast and low cost large-area nanoscale patterning technique, shows tremendous promise for the patterning of graphene and other nanostructures for numerous applications. First, it was demonstrated that large-area nanopatterning and the transfer of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) grown graphene via LIL and plasma etching provide a reliable method to provide large area nanoengineered graphene on various target substrates. Then, to improve the electrode performance under large strain (naturally CVD grown graphene sheet will crack at tensile strains larger than 1%), a corrugated graphene structure on PDMS was designed, fabricated, and tested, with experimental results indicating that this approach successfully allows the graphene sheets to withstand cyclic tensile strains up to 15%. Lastly, to further enhance the performance of carbon-based stretchable electrodes, an approach was developed which coupled graphene and vertically aligned CNT (VACNT) on a flexible PDMS substrate. Characterization of the graphene-VACNT hybrid shows high electrical conductivity and durability through 50 cycles of loading up to 100% tensile strain. While flexible electronics promise tremendous advances in important technological areas such as healthcare, sensing, energy, and wearable electronics, continued

Spot market natural gas strategies and reliability dealing with changing industry conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClure, D.C.

1992-01-01

Many in the energy industry thought the natural gas buying game had finally settled down to a predictable pattern in the 90's. After a tumultuous decade in the 80's they are ready to turn their attention to new challenges such as electricity wheeling and cogeneration. They were wrong. There is plenty of change left in the natural gas industry for the rest of the century. This growth will dramatically increase the number of options available to Energy Buyers, giving them new flexibility to design programs that meet goals for cost reduction, supply reliability, and administrative effort. However, with new options also come the responsibility for choices. Energy Managers of well designed gas programs will make these choices after careful consideration of the pro's and con's of each option. In short, the effective Buyer will develop a natural gas strategy. This report will begin by reviewing the basic types of change occurring in the industry, and then discuss some of the varied strategy options available to the Energy Buyer

Comparison and evaluation of flexible and stiff piping systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahn, W.; Tang, H.T.; Tang, Y.K.

1983-01-01

An experimental and numerical study was performed on a piping system, with various support configurations, to assess the difference in piping response for flexible and stiff piping systems. Questions have arisen concerning a basic design philosophy employed in present day piping designs. One basic question is, the reliability of a flexible piping system greater than that of a stiff piping system by virtue of the fact that a flexible system has fewer snubber supports. With fewer snubbers, the pipe is less susceptible to inadvertent thermal stresses introduced by snubber malfunction during normal operation. In addition to the technical issue, the matter of cost savings in flexible piping system design is a significant one. The costs associated with construction, in-service inspection and maintenance are all significantly reduced by reducing the number of snubber supports. The evaluation study, sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, was performed on a boiler feedwater line at Consolidated Edison's Indian Point Unit 1. In this study, the boiler feedwater line was tested and analyzed with two fundamentally different support systems. The first system was very flexible, employing rod and spring hangers, and represented the 'old' design philosophy. The pipe system was very flexible with this support system, due to the long pipe span lengths between supports and the fact that there was only one lateral support. This support did not provide much restraint since it was near an anchor. The second system employed strut and snubber supports and represented the 'modern' design philosophy. The pipe system was relatively stiff with this support system, primarily due to the increased number of supports, including lateral supports, thereby reducing the pipe span lengths between supports. The second support system was designed with removable supports to facilitate interchange of the supports with different support types (i.e., struts, mechanical snubbers and hydraulic

Individual Differences: Factors Affecting Employee Utilization of Flexible Work Arrangements

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Alysa D.; Marler, Janet H.; Gueutal, Hal G.

2008-01-01

This study investigated individual and organizational factors that predict an individual's choice to use flexible work arrangements (FWAs). Survey data was collected from 144 employees in two different organizations. The results revealed several significant predictors of FWAs: tenure, hours worked per week, supervisory responsibilities,…

Flexibility@Work 2013: yearly report on flexible labor and employment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berkhout, E.; Heyma, A.; Prins, J.

2013-01-01

There is no clear evidence that the strong growth in the share of flexible labor relations between 2002 and 2007 points at a worldwide trend towards a larger share of flexible labor at the expense of traditional open-ended labor contracts. The growth in flexible labor varies too much between