WorldWideScience

Sample records for reliability physics-of-failure based

  1. Weibull Parameters Estimation Based on Physics of Failure Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    Reliability estimation procedures are discussed for the example of fatigue development in solder joints using a physics of failure model. The accumulated damage is estimated based on a physics of failure model, the Rainflow counting algorithm and the Miner’s rule. A threshold model is used...... for degradation modeling and failure criteria determination. The time dependent accumulated damage is assumed linearly proportional to the time dependent degradation level. It is observed that the deterministic accumulated damage at the level of unity closely estimates the characteristic fatigue life of Weibull...

  2. Physics of Failure as a Basis for Solder Elements Reliability Assessment in Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    description of the reliability. A physics of failure approach is applied. A SnAg solder component used in power electronics is used as an example. Crack propagation in the SnAg solder is modeled and a model to assess the accumulated plastic strain is proposed based on a physics of failure approach. Based...... on the proposed model it is described how to find the accumulated linear damage and reliability levels for a given temperature loading profile. Using structural reliability methods the reliability levels of the electrical components are assessed by introducing scale factors for stresses....

  3. Transitioning to Physics-of-Failure as a Reliability Driver in Power Electronics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Liserre, Marco; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2014-01-01

    Power electronics has progressively gained important status in power generation, distribution and consumption. With more than 70% of electricity processed through power electronics, recent research endeavors to improve the reliability of power electronic systems to comply with more stringent...... constraints on cost, safety and availability in various applications. This paper serves to give an overview of the major aspects of reliability in power electronics and to address the future trends in this multidisciplinary research direction. The ongoing paradigm shift in reliability research is presented...... first. Then the three major aspects of power electronics reliability are discussed, respectively, which cover from physics-of-failure analysis of critical power elec-tronic components, state-of-the-art design for reliability process and robustness validation, and intelligent control and condition...

  4. Probabilistic physics-of-failure models for component reliabilities using Monte Carlo simulation and Weibull analysis: a parametric study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, P.L.; Strutt, J.E.

    2003-01-01

    In reliability engineering, component failures are generally classified in one of three ways: (1) early life failures; (2) failures having random onset times; and (3) late life or 'wear out' failures. When the time-distribution of failures of a population of components is analysed in terms of a Weibull distribution, these failure types may be associated with shape parameters β having values 1 respectively. Early life failures are frequently attributed to poor design (e.g. poor materials selection) or problems associated with manufacturing or assembly processes. We describe a methodology for the implementation of physics-of-failure models of component lifetimes in the presence of parameter and model uncertainties. This treats uncertain parameters as random variables described by some appropriate statistical distribution, which may be sampled using Monte Carlo methods. The number of simulations required depends upon the desired accuracy of the predicted lifetime. Provided that the number of sampled variables is relatively small, an accuracy of 1-2% can be obtained using typically 1000 simulations. The resulting collection of times-to-failure are then sorted into ascending order and fitted to a Weibull distribution to obtain a shape factor β and a characteristic life-time η. Examples are given of the results obtained using three different models: (1) the Eyring-Peck (EP) model for corrosion of printed circuit boards; (2) a power-law corrosion growth (PCG) model which represents the progressive deterioration of oil and gas pipelines; and (3) a random shock-loading model of mechanical failure. It is shown that for any specific model the values of the Weibull shape parameters obtained may be strongly dependent on the degree of uncertainty of the underlying input parameters. Both the EP and PCG models can yield a wide range of values of β, from β>1, characteristic of wear-out behaviour, to β<1, characteristic of early-life failure, depending on the degree of

  5. Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

  6. Physics of Failure Models for Capacitor Degradation in DC-DC Converters

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes a combined energy-based model with an empirical physics of failure model for degradation analysis and prognosis of electrolytic capacitors in...

  7. Experimental program for physics-of-failure modeling of electrolytic capacitors towards prognostics and health management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rana, Y.S.; Banerjee, Shantanab; Singh, Tej; Varde, P.V.

    2017-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a method used for predicting reliability of a component or system by assessing its current health and future operating conditions. A physics-of-failure (PoF)-based program on PHM for reliability prediction has been initiated at our institute. As part of the program, we aim at developing PoF-based models for degradation of electronic components and their experimental validation. In this direction, a database on existing PoF models for different electronic components has been prepared. We plan to experimentally determine the model constants and propose suitable methodology for PHM. Electrolytic capacitors are one of the most common passive components which find their applications in devices such as power supplies in aircrafts and printed circuit boards (PCBs) for regulation and protection of a nuclear reactor. Experimental studies have established that electrolytic capacitors degrade under electrical and thermal stress and tend to fail before their anticipated useful life at normal operating conditions. Equivalent series resistance (ESR) and capacitance (C) are the two main parameters used for monitoring health of such capacitors. In this paper, we present an experimental program for thermal and electrical overstress studies towards degradation models for electrolytic capacitors. (author)

  8. Physics-of-Failure Approach to Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2017-01-01

    As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of the electrical components present in the system. In case of electric vehicles, computing remaining battery charge is safety-critical. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. In this presentation our approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator for different electronic components is presented which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to determine state-of-charge and estimate remaining useful life of respective components. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

  9. Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromek, Katherine Emily

    A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

  10. Reliability based structural design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2014-01-01

    According to ISO 2394, structures shall be designed, constructed and maintained in such a way that they are suited for their use during the design working life in an economic way. To fulfil this requirement one needs insight into the risk and reliability under expected and non-expected actions. A

  11. A probabilistic physics-of-failure model for prognostic health management of structures subject to pitting and corrosion-fatigue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chookah, M.; Nuhi, M.; Modarres, M.

    2011-01-01

    A combined probabilistic physics-of-failure-based model for pitting and corrosion-fatigue degradation mechanisms is proposed to estimate the reliability of structures and to perform prognosis and health management. A mechanistic superposition model for corrosion-fatigue mechanism was used as a benchmark model to propose the simple model. The proposed model describes the degradation of the structures as a function of physical and critical environmental stresses, such as amplitude and frequency of mechanical loads (for example caused by the internal piping pressure) and the concentration of corrosive chemical agents. The parameters of the proposed model are represented by the probability density functions and estimated through a Bayesian approach based on the data taken from the experiments performed as part of this research. For demonstrating applications, the proposed model provides prognostic information about the reliability of aging of structures and is helpful in developing inspection and replacement strategies. - Highlights: ► We model an inventory system under static–dynamic uncertainty strategy. ► The demand is stochastic and non-stationary. ► The optimal ordering policy is proven to be a base stock policy. ► A solution algorithm for finding an optimal solution is provided. ► Two heuristics developed produce high quality solutions and scale-up efficiently.

  12. Reliability-Based Code Calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, M.H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2003-01-01

    The present paper addresses fundamental concepts of reliability based code calibration. First basic principles of structural reliability theory are introduced and it is shown how the results of FORM based reliability analysis may be related to partial safety factors and characteristic values....... Thereafter the code calibration problem is presented in its principal decision theoretical form and it is discussed how acceptable levels of failure probability (or target reliabilities) may be established. Furthermore suggested values for acceptable annual failure probabilities are given for ultimate...... and serviceability limit states. Finally the paper describes the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) recommended procedure - CodeCal - for the practical implementation of reliability based code calibration of LRFD based design codes....

  13. Reliability-Based Optimization in Structural Engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1994-01-01

    In this paper reliability-based optimization problems in structural engineering are formulated on the basis of the classical decision theory. Several formulations are presented: Reliability-based optimal design of structural systems with component or systems reliability constraints, reliability...

  14. Physics of failure based analysis of aluminium electrolytic capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Satya Ranjan; Behera, S.K.; Kumar, Sachin; Varde, P.V.; Ravi Kumar, G.

    2016-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are one of the important devices in various power electronic systems, such as motor drives, uninterruptible power supply, electric vehicles and dc power supply. Electrolytic capacitors are also the integral part of many other electronic devices. One of the primary function of electrolytic capacitors is the smoothing of voltage ripple and storing electrical energy. However, the electrolytic capacitor has the shortest lifespan of components in power electronics. Past experiences show that electrolytic capacitor tends to degrade and fail faster under high electrical or thermal stress conditions during operations. The primary failure mechanism of an electrolytic capacitor is the evaporation of the electrolyte due to electrical or thermal overstress. This leads to the drift in the values of two important parameters-capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR) of the electrolytic capacitor. An attempt has been made to age the electrolytic capacitor and validate the results. The overall goal is to derive the accurate degradation model of the electrolytic capacitor. (author)

  15. Reliability prediction system based on the failure rate model for electronic components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Woo; Lee, Hwa Ki

    2008-01-01

    Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. Among the reliability prediction methods are the statistical analysis based method, the similarity analysis method based on an external failure rate database, and the method based on the physics-of-failure model. In this study, we developed a system by which the reliability of electronic components can be predicted by creating a system for the statistical analysis method of predicting reliability most easily. The failure rate models that were applied are MILHDBK- 217F N2, PRISM, and Telcordia (Bellcore), and these were compared with the general purpose system in order to validate the effectiveness of the developed system. Being able to predict the reliability of electronic components from the stage of design, the system that we have developed is expected to contribute to enhancing the reliability of electronic components

  16. Reliability Based Ship Structural Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dogliani, M.; Østergaard, C.; Parmentier, G.

    1996-01-01

    This paper deals with the development of different methods that allow the reliability-based design of ship structures to be transferred from the area of research to the systematic application in current design. It summarises the achievements of a three-year collaborative research project dealing...... with developments of models of load effects and of structural collapse adopted in reliability formulations which aim at calibrating partial safety factors for ship structural design. New probabilistic models of still-water load effects are developed both for tankers and for containerships. New results are presented...... structure of several tankers and containerships. The results of the reliability analysis were the basis for the definition of a target safety level which was used to asses the partial safety factors suitable for in a new design rules format to be adopted in modern ship structural design. Finally...

  17. Enhancement of Physics-of-Failure Prognostic Models with System Level Features

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kacprzynski, Gregory

    2002-01-01

    .... The novelty in the current prognostic tool development is that predictions are made through the fusion of stochastic physics-of-failure models, relevant system or component level health monitoring...

  18. Dependent systems reliability estimation by structural reliability approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Estimation of system reliability by classical system reliability methods generally assumes that the components are statistically independent, thus limiting its applicability in many practical situations. A method is proposed for estimation of the system reliability with dependent components, where...... the leading failure mechanism(s) is described by physics of failure model(s). The proposed method is based on structural reliability techniques and accounts for both statistical and failure effect correlations. It is assumed that failure of any component is due to increasing damage (fatigue phenomena...... identification. Application of the proposed method can be found in many real world systems....

  19. Optimal, Reliability-Based Code Calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    Reliability based code calibration is considered in this paper. It is described how the results of FORM based reliability analysis may be related to the partial safety factors and characteristic values. The code calibration problem is presented in a decision theoretical form and it is discussed how...... of reliability based code calibration of LRFD based design codes....

  20. New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

  1. Reliability-based optimization of engineering structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    The theoretical basis for reliability-based structural optimization within the framework of Bayesian statistical decision theory is briefly described. Reliability-based cost benefit problems are formulated and exemplitied with structural optimization. The basic reliability-based optimization...... problems are generalized to the following extensions: interactive optimization, inspection and repair costs, systematic reconstruction, re-assessment of existing structures. Illustrative examples are presented including a simple introductory example, a decision problem related to bridge re...

  2. Experience based reliability centered maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haenninen, S.; Laakso, K.

    1993-03-01

    The systematic analysis and documentation of operating experiences should be included in a living NPP life management program. Failure mode and effects and maintenance effects analyses are suitable methods for analysis of the failure and corrective maintenance experiences of equipment. Combined use of the information on occurred functional failures and the decision tree logic of the reliability centered maintenance identifies applicable and effective preventive maintenance tasks of equipment in an old plant. In this study the electrical motor drives of closing and isolation valves (MOV) of TVO and Loviisa nuclear power plants were selected to serve as pilot study objects. The study was limited to valve drives having actuators manufactured by AUMA in Germany. The fault and maintenance history of MOVs from 1981 up to and including October 1991 in different safety and process systems at TVO 1 and 2 nuclear power units was at first analyzed in a systematic way. The scope of the components studied was 81 MOVs in safety-related systems and 127 other MOVs per each TVO unit. In the case of the Loviisa plant, the observation period was limited to three years, i.e. from February 1989 up to February 1992. The scope of the Loviisa 1 and 2 components studied was 44 respectively 95 MOVs. (25 refs., 22 figs., 8 tabs.)

  3. Reliability analysis of software based safety functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-05-01

    The methods applicable in the reliability analysis of software based safety functions are described in the report. Although the safety functions also include other components, the main emphasis in the report is on the reliability analysis of software. The check list type qualitative reliability analysis methods, such as failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), are described, as well as the software fault tree analysis. The safety analysis based on the Petri nets is discussed. The most essential concepts and models of quantitative software reliability analysis are described. The most common software metrics and their combined use with software reliability models are discussed. The application of software reliability models in PSA is evaluated; it is observed that the recent software reliability models do not produce the estimates needed in PSA directly. As a result from the study some recommendations and conclusions are drawn. The need of formal methods in the analysis and development of software based systems, the applicability of qualitative reliability engineering methods in connection to PSA and the need to make more precise the requirements for software based systems and their analyses in the regulatory guides should be mentioned. (orig.). (46 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.)

  4. Reliability Based Optimization of Structural Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1987-01-01

    The optimization problem to design structural systems such that the reliability is satisfactory during the whole lifetime of the structure is considered in this paper. Some of the quantities modelling the loads and the strength of the structure are modelled as random variables. The reliability...... is estimated using first. order reliability methods ( FORM ). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement....... For these optimization problems it is described how a sensitivity analysis can be performed. Next, new optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability based optimization problem sequentially using quasi-analytical derivatives. Finally...

  5. Reliability data bases: the current picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, J.R.

    1985-01-01

    The paper addresses specific advances in nuclear power plant reliability data base development, a critical review of a select set of relevant data bases and suggested future data bases and suggested future data development needs required for risk assessment techniques to reach full potential

  6. Dynamic reliability of digital-based transmitters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brissaud, Florent, E-mail: florent.brissaud.2007@utt.f [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France) and Universite de Technologie de Troyes - UTT, Institut Charles Delaunay - ICD and UMR CNRS 6279 STMR, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France); Smidts, Carol [Ohio State University (OSU), Nuclear Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Scott Laboratory, 201 W 19th Ave, Columbus OH 43210 (United States); Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe [Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and UMR CNRS 6279 STMR, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France)

    2011-07-15

    Dynamic reliability explicitly handles the interactions between the stochastic behaviour of system components and the deterministic behaviour of process variables. While dynamic reliability provides a more efficient and realistic way to perform probabilistic risk assessment than 'static' approaches, its industrial level applications are still limited. Factors contributing to this situation are the inherent complexity of the theory and the lack of a generic platform. More recently the increased use of digital-based systems has also introduced additional modelling challenges related to specific interactions between system components. Typical examples are the 'intelligent transmitters' which are able to exchange information, and to perform internal data processing and advanced functionalities. To make a contribution to solving these challenges, the mathematical framework of dynamic reliability is extended to handle the data and information which are processed and exchanged between systems components. Stochastic deviations that may affect system properties are also introduced to enhance the modelling of failures. A formalized Petri net approach is then presented to perform the corresponding reliability analyses using numerical methods. Following this formalism, a versatile model for the dynamic reliability modelling of digital-based transmitters is proposed. Finally the framework's flexibility and effectiveness is demonstrated on a substantial case study involving a simplified model of a nuclear fast reactor.

  7. Reliability-Based Optimization of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Tarp-Johansen, N.J.

    2004-01-01

    Reliability-based optimization of the main tower and monopile foundation of an offshore wind turbine is considered. Different formulations are considered of the objective function including benefits and building and failure costs of the wind turbine. Also different reconstruction policies in case...

  8. Interactive Reliability-Based Optimal Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Siemaszko, A.

    1994-01-01

    Interactive design/optimization of large, complex structural systems is considered. The objective function is assumed to model the expected costs. The constraints are reliability-based and/or related to deterministic code requirements. Solution of this optimization problem is divided in four main...... tasks, namely finite element analyses, sensitivity analyses, reliability analyses and application of an optimization algorithm. In the paper it is shown how these four tasks can be linked effectively and how existing information on design variables, Lagrange multipliers and the Hessian matrix can...

  9. Reliability Based Optimization of Fire Protection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    fire protection (PFP) of firewalls and structural members. The paper is partly based on research performed within the EU supported research project B/E-4359 "Optimized Fire Safety of Offshore Structures" and partly on research supported by the Danish Technical Research Council (see Thoft-Christensen [1......]). Special emphasis is put on the optimization software developed within the project.......It is well known that fire is one of the major risks of serious damage or total loss of several types of structures such as nuclear installations, buildings, offshore platforms/topsides etc. This paper presents a methodology and software for reliability based optimization of the layout of passive...

  10. Design for Reliability of Power Electronic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible processing of electric power in the application of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, adjustable-speed drives, etc. More and more efforts are devoted to better power electronic systems in terms of reliability to ensure high......). A collection of methodologies based on Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile analysis are presented in this paper to perform reliability-oriented design of power electronic systems. The corresponding design procedures and reliability prediction models are provided. Further on, a case study...... on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical components IGBTs. Different aspects of improving the reliability of the power converter are mapped. Finally, the challenges and opportunities to achieve more reliable power electronic systems are addressed....

  11. Measurement-based reliability/performability models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsueh, Mei-Chen

    1987-01-01

    Measurement-based models based on real error-data collected on a multiprocessor system are described. Model development from the raw error-data to the estimation of cumulative reward is also described. A workload/reliability model is developed based on low-level error and resource usage data collected on an IBM 3081 system during its normal operation in order to evaluate the resource usage/error/recovery process in a large mainframe system. Thus, both normal and erroneous behavior of the system are modeled. The results provide an understanding of the different types of errors and recovery processes. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the significance of using a semi-Markov process, as opposed to a Markov process, to model the measured system.

  12. Inverse Reliability Task: Artificial Neural Networks and Reliability-Based Optimization Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Lehký , David; Slowik , Ondřej; Novák , Drahomír

    2014-01-01

    Part 7: Genetic Algorithms; International audience; The paper presents two alternative approaches to solve inverse reliability task – to determine the design parameters to achieve desired target reliabilities. The first approach is based on utilization of artificial neural networks and small-sample simulation Latin hypercube sampling. The second approach considers inverse reliability task as reliability-based optimization task using double-loop method and also small-sample simulation. Efficie...

  13. Reliability Estimation Based Upon Test Plan Results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Read, Robert

    1997-01-01

    The report contains a brief summary of aspects of the Maximus reliability point and interval estimation technique as it has been applied to the reliability of a device whose surveillance tests contain...

  14. Development of web-based reliability data base platform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Chang Ju; Sung, Key Yong

    2004-01-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is a systematic technique which estimates the degree of risk impacts to the public due to an accident scenario. Estimating the occurrence frequencies and consequences of potential scenarios requires a thorough analysis of the accident details and all fundamental parameters. The robustness of PSA to check weaknesses in a design and operation will allow a better informed and balanced decision to be reached. The fundamental parameters for PSA, such as the component failure rates, should be estimated under the condition of steady collection of the evidence throughout the operational period. However, since any single plant data does not sufficiently enough to provide an adequate PSA result, in actual, the whole operating data was commonly used to estimate the reliability parameters for the same type of components. The reliability data of any component type consists of two categories; the generic that is based on the operating experiences of whole plants, and the plant-specific that is based on the operation of a specific plant of interest. The generic data is highly essential for new or recently-built nuclear power plants (NPPs). Generally, the reliability data base may be categorized into the component reliability, initiating event frequencies, human performance, and so on. Among these data, the component reliability seems a key element because it has the most abundant population. Therefore, the component reliability data is essential for taking a part in the quantification of accident sequences because it becomes an input of various basic events which consists of the fault tree

  15. Optimal Reliability-Based Code Calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kroon, I. B.; Faber, Michael Havbro

    1994-01-01

    Calibration of partial safety factors is considered in general, including classes of structures where no code exists beforehand. The partial safety factors are determined such that the difference between the reliability for the different structures in the class considered and a target reliability...... level is minimized. Code calibration on a decision theoretical basis is also considered and it is shown how target reliability indices can be calibrated. Results from code calibration for rubble mound breakwater designs are shown....

  16. THERMAL AND THERMO-MECHANICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CRYOGENIC MICROCOOLER FOR OPTIMUM PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-19

    reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of...contracted fundamental research deemed exempt from public affairs security and policy review in accordance with SAF/AQR memorandum dated 10 Dec 08 and AFRL...subjected to cryogenic operating conditions was assessed by proposing a hierarchical physics -of-failure-based reliability assessment model. 15. SUBJECT

  17. Reliability-based design of wind turbine blades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    Reliability-based design of wind turbine blades requires identification of the important failure modes/limit states along with stochastic models for the uncertainties and methods for estimating the reliability. In the present paper it is described how reliability-based design can be applied to wi...

  18. Reliability assessment based on subjective inferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Zhibo; Zhu Jianshi; Xu Naixin

    2003-01-01

    The reliability information which comes from subjective analysis is often incomplete prior. This information can be generally assumed to exist in the form of either a stated prior mean of R (reliability) or a stated prior credibility interval on R. An efficient approach is developed to determine a complete beta prior distribution from the subjective information according to the principle of maximum entropy, and the the reliability of survival/failure product is assessed via Bayes theorem. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the methods

  19. System Reliability for LED-Based Products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, J Lynn; Mills, Karmann; Lamvik, Michael; Yaga, Robert; Shepherd, Sarah D; Bittle, James; Baldasaro, Nick; Solano, Eric; Bobashev, Georgiy; Johnson, Cortina; Evans, Amy

    2014-04-07

    Results from accelerated life tests (ALT) on mass-produced commercially available 6” downlights are reported along with results from commercial LEDs. The luminaires capture many of the design features found in modern luminaires. In general, a systems perspective is required to understand the reliability of these devices since LED failure is rare. In contrast, components such as drivers, lenses, and reflector are more likely to impact luminaire reliability than LEDs.

  20. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  1. Damage Model for Reliability Assessment of Solder Joints in Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    environmental factors. Reliability assessment for such type of products conventionally is performed by classical reliability techniques based on test data. Usually conventional reliability approaches are time and resource consuming activities. Thus in this paper we choose a physics of failure approach to define...... damage model by Miner’s rule. Our attention is focused on crack propagation in solder joints of electrical components due to the temperature loadings. Based on the proposed method it is described how to find the damage level for a given temperature loading profile. The proposed method is discussed...

  2. Methodology for reliability based condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Y.; Ellingwood, B.

    1993-08-01

    Structures in nuclear power plants may be exposed to aggressive environmental effects that cause their strength to decrease over an extended period of service. A major concern in evaluating the continued service for such structures is to ensure that in their current condition they are able to withstand future extreme load events during the intended service life with a level of reliability sufficient for public safety. This report describes a methodology to facilitate quantitative assessments of current and future structural reliability and performance of structures in nuclear power plants. This methodology takes into account the nature of past and future loads, and randomness in strength and in degradation resulting from environmental factors. An adaptive Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate time-dependent system reliability. The time-dependent reliability is sensitive to the time-varying load characteristics and to the choice of initial strength and strength degradation models but not to correlation in component strengths within a system. Inspection/maintenance strategies are identified that minimize the expected future costs of keeping the failure probability of a structure at or below an established target failure probability during its anticipated service period

  3. Reliability-Based Design of Coastal Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to introduce the application of reliability theory for conceptual design and evaluation of coastal structures. It is without the scope to discuss the validity and quality of the various design formulae available for coastal structures. The contents of the paper is a....... Proceedings Conference of Port and Coastal Engineering in developing countries. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1995....

  4. Reliability-Based Optimization of Structural Elements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    In this paper structural elements from an optimization point of view are considered, i.e. only the geometry of a structural element is optimized. Reliability modelling of the structural element is discussed both from an element point of view and from a system point of view. The optimization...

  5. Reliability Based Management of Marine Fouling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro; Hansen, Peter Friis

    1999-01-01

    The present paper describes the results of a recent study on the application of methods from structural reliability to optimise management of marine fouling on jacket type structures.In particular the study addresses effects on the structural response by assessment and quantification of uncertain......The present paper describes the results of a recent study on the application of methods from structural reliability to optimise management of marine fouling on jacket type structures.In particular the study addresses effects on the structural response by assessment and quantification...... of uncertainties of a set of parameters. These are the seasonal variation of marine fouling parameters, the wave loading (taking into account the seasonal variation in sea-state statistics), and the effects of spatial variations and seasonal effects of marine fouling parameters. Comparison of design values...

  6. Reliability-Based Optimization of Series Systems of Parallel Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1993-01-01

    Reliability-based design of structural systems is considered. In particular, systems where the reliability model is a series system of parallel systems are treated. A sensitivity analysis for this class of problems is presented. Optimization problems with series systems of parallel systems...... optimization of series systems of parallel systems, but it is also efficient in reliability-based optimization of series systems in general....

  7. An integrated reliability-based design optimization of offshore towers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karadeniz, Halil; Togan, Vedat; Vrouwenvelder, Ton

    2009-01-01

    After recognizing the uncertainty in the parameters such as material, loading, geometry and so on in contrast with the conventional optimization, the reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) concept has become more meaningful to perform an economical design implementation, which includes a reliability analysis and an optimization algorithm. RBDO procedures include structural analysis, reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis both for optimization and for reliability. The efficiency of the RBDO system depends on the mentioned numerical algorithms. In this work, an integrated algorithms system is proposed to implement the RBDO of the offshore towers, which are subjected to the extreme wave loading. The numerical strategies interacting with each other to fulfill the RBDO of towers are as follows: (a) a structural analysis program, SAPOS, (b) an optimization program, SQP and (c) a reliability analysis program based on FORM. A demonstration of an example tripod tower under the reliability constraints based on limit states of the critical stress, buckling and the natural frequency is presented.

  8. An integrated reliability-based design optimization of offshore towers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karadeniz, Halil [Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)], E-mail: h.karadeniz@tudelft.nl; Togan, Vedat [Department of Civil Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Vrouwenvelder, Ton [Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)

    2009-10-15

    After recognizing the uncertainty in the parameters such as material, loading, geometry and so on in contrast with the conventional optimization, the reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) concept has become more meaningful to perform an economical design implementation, which includes a reliability analysis and an optimization algorithm. RBDO procedures include structural analysis, reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis both for optimization and for reliability. The efficiency of the RBDO system depends on the mentioned numerical algorithms. In this work, an integrated algorithms system is proposed to implement the RBDO of the offshore towers, which are subjected to the extreme wave loading. The numerical strategies interacting with each other to fulfill the RBDO of towers are as follows: (a) a structural analysis program, SAPOS, (b) an optimization program, SQP and (c) a reliability analysis program based on FORM. A demonstration of an example tripod tower under the reliability constraints based on limit states of the critical stress, buckling and the natural frequency is presented.

  9. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  10. Reliability Assessment and Reliability-Based Inspection and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramírez, José G. Rangel; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    Probabilistic methodologies represent an important tool to identify the suitable strategy to inspect and deal with the deterioration in structures such as offshore wind turbines (OWT). Reliability based methods such as Risk Based Inspection (RBI) planning may represent a proper methodology to opt...

  11. Combining information flow and physics-of-failure in mechatronic products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magniez, C.A.A.

    2007-01-01

    A continuous acceleration in the rate of technological development, shorter product life cycles, more intense competition due to maturing of markets and globalization, have forced firms to increasingly rely on new products for sales and profitability. However, reliability and quality management

  12. Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

    OpenAIRE

    Hai An; Ling Zhou; Hui Sun

    2016-01-01

    Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new...

  13. Component fragility data base for reliability and probability studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.; Kassier, M.; Pepper, S.

    1989-01-01

    Safety-related equipment in a nuclear plant plays a vital role in its proper operation and control, and failure of such equipment due to an earthquake may pose a risk to the safe operation of the plant. Therefore, in order to assess the overall reliability of a plant, the reliability of performance of the equipment should be studied first. The success of a reliability or a probability study depends to a great extent on the data base. To meet this demand, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has formed a test data base relating the seismic capacity of equipment specimens to the earthquake levels. Subsequently, the test data have been analyzed for use in reliability and probability studies. This paper describes the data base and discusses the analysis methods. The final results that can be directly used in plant reliability and probability studies are also presented in this paper

  14. Reliability-based Assessment of Fatigue Life for Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    The reliability level for bridges is discussed based on a comparison of the reliability levels proposed and used by e.g. JCSS, ISO, NKB and Eurocodes. The influence of reserve capacity by which failure of a specific detail does not lead to structural collapse is investigated. The results show...

  15. Reliability-Based Optimization of Series Systems of Parallel Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Reliability-based design of structural systems is considered. Especially systems where the reliability model is a series system of parallel systems are analysed. A sensitivity analysis for this class of problems is presented. Direct and sequential optimization procedures to solve the optimization...

  16. A critique of reliability prediction techniques for avionics applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guru Prasad PANDIAN

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Avionics (aeronautics and aerospace industries must rely on components and systems of demonstrated high reliability. For this, handbook-based methods have been traditionally used to design for reliability, develop test plans, and define maintenance requirements and sustainment logistics. However, these methods have been criticized as flawed and leading to inaccurate and misleading results. In its recent report on enhancing defense system reliability, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has recently discredited these methods, judging the Military Handbook (MIL-HDBK-217 and its progeny as invalid and inaccurate. This paper discusses the issues that arise with the use of handbook-based methods in commercial and military avionics applications. Alternative approaches to reliability design (and its demonstration are also discussed, including similarity analysis, testing, physics-of-failure, and data analytics for prognostics and systems health management.

  17. Evaluation of mobile ad hoc network reliability using propagation-based link reliability model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padmavathy, N.; Chaturvedi, Sanjay K.

    2013-01-01

    A wireless mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a collection of solely independent nodes (that can move randomly around the area of deployment) making the topology highly dynamic; nodes communicate with each other by forming a single hop/multi-hop network and maintain connectivity in decentralized manner. MANET is modelled using geometric random graphs rather than random graphs because the link existence in MANET is a function of the geometric distance between the nodes and the transmission range of the nodes. Among many factors that contribute to the MANET reliability, the reliability of these networks also depends on the robustness of the link between the mobile nodes of the network. Recently, the reliability of such networks has been evaluated for imperfect nodes (transceivers) with binary model of communication links based on the transmission range of the mobile nodes and the distance between them. However, in reality, the probability of successful communication decreases as the signal strength deteriorates due to noise, fading or interference effects even up to the nodes' transmission range. Hence, in this paper, using a propagation-based link reliability model rather than a binary-model with nodes following a known failure distribution to evaluate the network reliability (2TR m , ATR m and AoTR m ) of MANET through Monte Carlo Simulation is proposed. The method is illustrated with an application and some imperative results are also presented

  18. Reliability based Robustness of Timber Structures through NDT Data Updating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sousa, Hélder S.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2011-01-01

    This work presents a framework for reliability-based assessment of timber structures / members using data gathered from non-destructive test results. These results are used for modeling an update of the mechanical characteristics of timber, using Bayesian methods. Results gathered from ultrasound...... of the structure, thus, being possible to evaluate reliability based in time dependent factors, as well to categorize that structure in terms of robustness. For exemplification of the underlined concepts, three different types of structures are studied....

  19. Reliability based Design of Coastal Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.

    2003-01-01

    Conventional design practice for coastal structures is deterministic in nature and is based on the concept of a design load which should not exceed the resistance (carrying capacity) of the structure. The design load is usually defined on a probabilistic basis as a characteristic value of the load......, for example the expectation (mean) value of the 100-year return period event. However, this selection is often made without consideration of the involved uncertainties. In most cases the resistance is defined in terms of the load that causes a certain design impact or damage to the structure...

  20. A Reliability Based Model for Wind Turbine Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K. Rajeevan

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A wind turbine generator output at a specific site depends on many factors, particularly cut- in, rated and cut-out wind speed parameters. Hence power output varies from turbine to turbine. The objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical relationship between reliability and wind power generation. The analytical computation of monthly wind power is obtained from weibull statistical model using cubic mean cube root of wind speed. Reliability calculation is based on failure probability analysis. There are many different types of wind turbinescommercially available in the market. From reliability point of view, to get optimum reliability in power generation, it is desirable to select a wind turbine generator which is best suited for a site. The mathematical relationship developed in this paper can be used for site-matching turbine selection in reliability point of view.

  1. Design for reliability in power electronics in renewable energy systems – status and future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede; Ma, Ke

    2013-01-01

    Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible interconnection of renewable sources, loads and electric grids. While targets concerning efficiency of power converters are within reach, recent research endeavors to predict and improve their reliability to ensure high availability, low...... maintenance costs, and herefore, low Levelized-Cost-of-Energy (LCOE) of renewable energy systems. This paper presents the prior-art Design for Reliability (DFR) process for power converters and addresses the paradigm shift to Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile based analysis. Moreover...

  2. Reliability evaluation of microgrid considering incentive-based demand response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ting-Cheng; Zhang, Yong-Jun

    2017-07-01

    Incentive-based demand response (IBDR) can guide customers to adjust their behaviour of electricity and curtail load actively. Meanwhile, distributed generation (DG) and energy storage system (ESS) can provide time for the implementation of IBDR. The paper focus on the reliability evaluation of microgrid considering IBDR. Firstly, the mechanism of IBDR and its impact on power supply reliability are analysed. Secondly, the IBDR dispatch model considering customer’s comprehensive assessment and the customer response model are developed. Thirdly, the reliability evaluation method considering IBDR based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Finally, the validity of the above models and method is studied through numerical tests on modified RBTS Bus6 test system. Simulation results demonstrated that IBDR can improve the reliability of microgrid.

  3. Reliability-Based Robustness Analysis for a Croatian Sports Hall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a probabilistic approach for structural robustness assessment for a timber structure built a few years ago. The robustness analysis is based on a structural reliability based framework for robustness and a simplified mechanical system modelling of a timber truss system....... A complex timber structure with a large number of failure modes is modelled with only a few dominant failure modes. First, a component based robustness analysis is performed based on the reliability indices of the remaining elements after the removal of selected critical elements. The robustness...... is expressed and evaluated by a robustness index. Next, the robustness is assessed using system reliability indices where the probabilistic failure model is modelled by a series system of parallel systems....

  4. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

    2011-11-01

    Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Reliability analysis of cluster-based ad-hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, Jason L.; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

    2008-01-01

    The mobile ad-hoc wireless network (MAWN) is a new and emerging network scheme that is being employed in a variety of applications. The MAWN varies from traditional networks because it is a self-forming and dynamic network. The MAWN is free of infrastructure and, as such, only the mobile nodes comprise the network. Pairs of nodes communicate either directly or through other nodes. To do so, each node acts, in turn, as a source, destination, and relay of messages. The virtue of a MAWN is the flexibility this provides; however, the challenge for reliability analyses is also brought about by this unique feature. The variability and volatility of the MAWN configuration makes typical reliability methods (e.g. reliability block diagram) inappropriate because no single structure or configuration represents all manifestations of a MAWN. For this reason, new methods are being developed to analyze the reliability of this new networking technology. New published methods adapt to this feature by treating the configuration probabilistically or by inclusion of embedded mobility models. This paper joins both methods together and expands upon these works by modifying the problem formulation to address the reliability analysis of a cluster-based MAWN. The cluster-based MAWN is deployed in applications with constraints on networking resources such as bandwidth and energy. This paper presents the problem's formulation, a discussion of applicable reliability metrics for the MAWN, and illustration of a Monte Carlo simulation method through the analysis of several example networks

  6. Performance reliability prediction for thermal aging based on kalman filtering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Wen Zhenhua; Xue Fei; Zhao Wensheng

    2015-01-01

    The performance reliability of the nuclear power plant main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging was studied by the performance degradation theory. Firstly, through the data obtained from the accelerated thermal aging experiments, the degradation process of the impact strength and fracture toughness of austenitic stainless steel material of the main pipeline was analyzed. The time-varying performance degradation model based on the state space method was built, and the performance trends were predicted by using Kalman filtering. Then, the multi-parameter and real-time performance reliability prediction model for the main pipeline thermal aging was developed by considering the correlation between the impact properties and fracture toughness, and by using the stochastic process theory. Thus, the thermal aging performance reliability and reliability life of the main pipeline with multi-parameter were obtained, which provides the scientific basis for the optimization management of the aging maintenance decision making for nuclear power plant main pipelines. (authors)

  7. Reliability analysis of digital based I and C system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, I. S.; Cho, B. S.; Choi, M. J. [KOPEC, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-10-01

    Rapidly, digital technology is being widely applied in replacing analog component installed in existing plant and designing new nuclear power plant for control and monitoring system in Korea as well as in foreign countries. Even though many merits of digital technology, it is being faced with a new problem of reliability assurance. The studies for solving this problem are being performed vigorously in foreign countries. The reliability of KNGR Engineered Safety Features Component Control System (ESF-CCS), digital based I and C system, was analyzed to verify fulfillment of the ALWR EPRI-URD requirement for reliability analysis and eliminate hazards in design applied new technology. The qualitative analysis using FMEA and quantitative analysis using reliability block diagram were performed. The results of analyses are shown in this paper.

  8. Reliability-Based Decision Fusion in Multimodal Biometric Verification Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kryszczuk Krzysztof

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology of reliability estimation in the multimodal biometric verification scenario. Reliability estimation has shown to be an efficient and accurate way of predicting and correcting erroneous classification decisions in both unimodal (speech, face, online signature and multimodal (speech and face systems. While the initial research results indicate the high potential of the proposed methodology, the performance of the reliability estimation in a multimodal setting has not been sufficiently studied or evaluated. In this paper, we demonstrate the advantages of using the unimodal reliability information in order to perform an efficient biometric fusion of two modalities. We further show the presented method to be superior to state-of-the-art multimodal decision-level fusion schemes. The experimental evaluation presented in this paper is based on the popular benchmarking bimodal BANCA database.

  9. Interactive Reliability-Based Optimization of Structural Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Claus

    In order to introduce the basic concepts within the field of reliability-based structural optimization problems, this chapter is devoted to a brief outline of the basic theories. Therefore, this chapter is of a more formal nature and used as a basis for the remaining parts of the thesis. In section...... 2.2 a general non-linear optimization problem and corresponding terminology are presented whereupon optimality conditions and the standard form of an iterative optimization algorithm are outlined. Subsequently, the special properties and characteristics concerning structural optimization problems...... are treated in section 2.3. With respect to the reliability evalutation, the basic theory behind a reliability analysis and estimation of probability of failure by the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) and the iterative Rackwitz-Fiessler (RF) algorithm are considered in section 2.5 in which...

  10. IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomic, B.; Lederman, L.

    1991-01-01

    Reliability data are essential in probabilistic safety assessment, with component reliability parameters being particularly important. Component failure data which is plant specific would be most appropriate but this is rather limited. However, similar components are used in different designs. Generic data, that is all data that is not plant specific to the plant being analyzed but which relates to components more generally, is important. The International Atomic Energy Agency has compiled the Generic Component Reliability Data Base from data available in the open literature. It is part of the IAEA computer code package for fault/event tree analysis. The Data Base contains 1010 different records including most of the components used in probabilistic safety analyses of nuclear power plants. The data base input was quality controlled and data sources noted. The data compilation procedure and problems associated with using generic data are explained. (UK)

  11. Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chou, Jui-Sheng; Le, Thanh-Son

    2011-01-01

    Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: →A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. → Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. → A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. → The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

  12. Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chou, Jui-Sheng, E-mail: jschou@mail.ntust.edu.tw [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Le, Thanh-Son [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)

    2011-10-15

    Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: > A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. > Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. > A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. > The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

  13. Reliability-based design code calibration for concrete containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, B.K.; Cho, H.N.; Chang, S.P.

    1991-01-01

    In this study, a load combination criteria for design and a probability-based reliability analysis were proposed on the basis of a FEM-based random vibration analysis. The limit state model defined for the study is a serviceability limit state of the crack failure that causes the emission of radioactive materials, and the results are compared with the case of strength limit state. More accurate reliability analyses under various dynamic loads such as earthquake loads were made possible by incorporating the FEM and random vibration theory, which is different from the conventional reliability analysis method. The uncertainties in loads and resistance available in Korea and the references were adapted to the situation of Korea, and especially in case of earthquake, the design earthquake was assessed based on the available data for the probabilistic description of earthquake ground acceleration in the Korea peninsula. The SAP V-2 is used for a three-dimensional finite element analysis of concrete containment structure, and the reliability analysis is carried out by modifying HRAS reliability analysis program for this study. (orig./GL)

  14. Integrated Reliability-Based Optimal Design of Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1987-01-01

    In conventional optimal design of structural systems the weight or the initial cost of the structure is usually used as objective function. Further, the constraints require that the stresses and/or strains at some critical points have to be less than some given values. Finally, all variables......-based optimal design is discussed. Next, an optimal inspection and repair strategy for existing structural systems is presented. An optimization problem is formulated , where the objective is to minimize the expected total future cost of inspection and repair subject to the constraint that the reliability...... value. The reliability can be measured from an element and/or a systems point of view. A number of methods to solve reliability-based optimization problems has been suggested, see e.g. Frangopol [I]. Murotsu et al. (2], Thoft-Christensen & Sørensen (3] and Sørensen (4). For structures where...

  15. Structural Reliability Methods for Wind Power Converter System Component Reliability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    Wind power converter systems are essential subsystems in both off-shore and on-shore wind turbines. It is the main interface between generator and grid connection. This system is affected by numerous stresses where the main contributors might be defined as vibration and temperature loadings....... The temperature variations induce time-varying stresses and thereby fatigue loads. A probabilistic model is used to model fatigue failure for an electrical component in the power converter system. This model is based on a linear damage accumulation and physics of failure approaches, where a failure criterion...... is defined by the threshold model. The attention is focused on crack propagation in solder joints of electrical components due to the temperature loadings. Structural Reliability approaches are used to incorporate model, physical and statistical uncertainties. Reliability estimation by means of structural...

  16. Enhancing reliable online transaction with intelligent rule-based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Enhancing reliable online transaction with intelligent rule-based fraud detection technique. ... These are with a bid to reducing amongst other things the cost of production and also dissuade the poor handling of Nigeria currency. The CBN pronouncement has necessitated the upsurge in transactions completed with credit ...

  17. Reliability Based Calibration of Fatigue Design Guidelines for Ship Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folsø, Rasmus; Otto, S.; Parmentier, G.

    2002-01-01

    A simple reliability based framework is applied to calibrate a new set of fatigue design guidelines. This new guideline considers two different approaches for the assessment of both loads, stresses and local stress raising effects, and partial safety factors must be given for any combination...

  18. Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

  19. Maintenance management of railway infrastructures based on reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macchi, Marco; Garetti, Marco; Centrone, Domenico; Fumagalli, Luca; Piero Pavirani, Gian

    2012-01-01

    Railway infrastructure maintenance plays a crucial role for rail transport. It aims at guaranteeing safety of operations and availability of railway tracks and related equipment for traffic regulation. Moreover, it is one major cost for rail transport operations. Thus, the increased competition in traffic market is asking for maintenance improvement, aiming at the reduction of maintenance expenditures while keeping the safety of operations. This issue is addressed by the methodology presented in the paper. The first step of the methodology consists of a family-based approach for the equipment reliability analysis; its purpose is the identification of families of railway items which can be given the same reliability targets. The second step builds the reliability model of the railway system for identifying the most critical items, given a required service level for the transportation system. The two methods have been implemented and tested in practical case studies, in the context of Rete Ferroviaria Italiana, the Italian public limited company for railway transportation.

  20. Reliability-based assessment of polyethylene pipe creep lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khelif, Rabia; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Chaoui, Kamel

    2007-01-01

    Lifetime management of underground pipelines is mandatory for safe hydrocarbon transmission and distribution systems. The use of high-density polyethylene tubes subjected to internal pressure, external loading and environmental variations requires a reliability study in order to define the service limits and the optimal operating conditions. In service, the time-dependent phenomena, especially creep, take place during the pipe lifetime, leading to significant strength reduction. In this work, the reliability-based assessment of pipe lifetime models is carried out, in order to propose a probabilistic methodology for lifetime model selection and to determine the pipe safety levels as well as the most important parameters for pipeline reliability. This study is enhanced by parametric analysis on pipe configuration, gas pressure and operating temperature

  1. Reliability-based assessment of polyethylene pipe creep lifetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khelif, Rabia [LaMI-UBP and IFMA, Campus de Clermont-Fd, Les Cezeaux, BP 265, 63175 Aubiere Cedex (France); LR3MI, Departement de Genie Mecanique, Universite Badji Mokhtar, BP 12, Annaba 23000 (Algeria)], E-mail: rabia.khelif@ifma.fr; Chateauneuf, Alaa [LGC-University Blaise Pascal, Campus des Cezeaux, BP 206, 63174 Aubiere Cedex (France)], E-mail: alaa.chateauneuf@polytech.univ-bpclermont.fr; Chaoui, Kamel [LR3MI, Departement de Genie Mecanique, Universite Badji Mokhtar, BP 12, Annaba 23000 (Algeria)], E-mail: chaoui@univ-annaba.org

    2007-12-15

    Lifetime management of underground pipelines is mandatory for safe hydrocarbon transmission and distribution systems. The use of high-density polyethylene tubes subjected to internal pressure, external loading and environmental variations requires a reliability study in order to define the service limits and the optimal operating conditions. In service, the time-dependent phenomena, especially creep, take place during the pipe lifetime, leading to significant strength reduction. In this work, the reliability-based assessment of pipe lifetime models is carried out, in order to propose a probabilistic methodology for lifetime model selection and to determine the pipe safety levels as well as the most important parameters for pipeline reliability. This study is enhanced by parametric analysis on pipe configuration, gas pressure and operating temperature.

  2. NHPP-Based Software Reliability Models Using Equilibrium Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Xiao; Okamura, Hiroyuki; Dohi, Tadashi

    Non-homogeneous Poisson processes (NHPPs) have gained much popularity in actual software testing phases to estimate the software reliability, the number of remaining faults in software and the software release timing. In this paper, we propose a new modeling approach for the NHPP-based software reliability models (SRMs) to describe the stochastic behavior of software fault-detection processes. The fundamental idea is to apply the equilibrium distribution to the fault-detection time distribution in NHPP-based modeling. We also develop efficient parameter estimation procedures for the proposed NHPP-based SRMs. Through numerical experiments, it can be concluded that the proposed NHPP-based SRMs outperform the existing ones in many data sets from the perspective of goodness-of-fit and prediction performance.

  3. Structural reliability analysis based on the cokriging technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Wei; Wang Wei; Dai Hongzhe; Xue Guofeng

    2010-01-01

    Approximation methods are widely used in structural reliability analysis because they are simple to create and provide explicit functional relationships between the responses and variables in stead of the implicit limit state function. Recently, the kriging method which is a semi-parameter interpolation technique that can be used for deterministic optimization and structural reliability has gained popularity. However, to fully exploit the kriging method, especially in high-dimensional problems, a large number of sample points should be generated to fill the design space and this can be very expensive and even impractical in practical engineering analysis. Therefore, in this paper, a new method-the cokriging method, which is an extension of kriging, is proposed to calculate the structural reliability. cokriging approximation incorporates secondary information such as the values of the gradients of the function being approximated. This paper explores the use of the cokriging method for structural reliability problems by comparing it with the Kriging method based on some numerical examples. The results indicate that the cokriging procedure described in this work can generate approximation models to improve on the accuracy and efficiency for structural reliability problems and is a viable alternative to the kriging.

  4. Statistical reliability assessment of software-based systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korhonen, J.; Pulkkinen, U.; Haapanen, P.

    1997-01-01

    Plant vendors nowadays propose software-based systems even for the most critical safety functions. The reliability estimation of safety critical software-based systems is difficult since the conventional modeling techniques do not necessarily apply to the analysis of these systems, and the quantification seems to be impossible. Due to lack of operational experience and due to the nature of software faults, the conventional reliability estimation methods can not be applied. New methods are therefore needed for the safety assessment of software-based systems. In the research project Programmable automation systems in nuclear power plants (OHA), financed together by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. This volume in the OHA-report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in OHA-report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. (orig.) (25 refs.)

  5. Reliability analysis of offshore structures using OMA based fatigue stresses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silva Nabuco, Bruna; Aissani, Amina; Glindtvad Tarpø, Marius

    2017-01-01

    focus is on the uncertainty observed on the different stresses used to predict the damage. This uncertainty can be reduced by Modal Based Fatigue Monitoring which is a technique based on continuously measuring of the accelerations in few points of the structure with the use of accelerometers known...... points of the structure, the stress history can be calculated in any arbitrary point of the structure. The accuracy of the estimated actual stress is analyzed by experimental tests on a scale model where the obtained stresses are compared to strain gauges measurements. After evaluating the fatigue...... stresses directly from the operational response of the structure, a reliability analysis is performed in order to estimate the reliability of using Modal Based Fatigue Monitoring for long term fatigue studies....

  6. Diagnostic reliability of MMPI-2 computer-based test interpretations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pant, Hina; McCabe, Brian J; Deskovitz, Mark A; Weed, Nathan C; Williams, John E

    2014-09-01

    Reflecting the common use of the MMPI-2 to provide diagnostic considerations, computer-based test interpretations (CBTIs) also typically offer diagnostic suggestions. However, these diagnostic suggestions can sometimes be shown to vary widely across different CBTI programs even for identical MMPI-2 profiles. The present study evaluated the diagnostic reliability of 6 commercially available CBTIs using a 20-item Q-sort task developed for this study. Four raters each sorted diagnostic classifications based on these 6 CBTI reports for 20 MMPI-2 profiles. Two questions were addressed. First, do users of CBTIs understand the diagnostic information contained within the reports similarly? Overall, diagnostic sorts of the CBTIs showed moderate inter-interpreter diagnostic reliability (mean r = .56), with sorts for the 1/2/3 profile showing the highest inter-interpreter diagnostic reliability (mean r = .67). Second, do different CBTIs programs vary with respect to diagnostic suggestions? It was found that diagnostic sorts of the CBTIs had a mean inter-CBTI diagnostic reliability of r = .56, indicating moderate but not strong agreement across CBTIs in terms of diagnostic suggestions. The strongest inter-CBTI diagnostic agreement was found for sorts of the 1/2/3 profile CBTIs (mean r = .71). Limitations and future directions are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. Reliability analysis for new technology-based transmitters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brissaud, Florent, E-mail: florent.brissaud.2007@utt.f [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and STMR UMR CNRS 6279, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe [Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and STMR UMR CNRS 6279, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Charpentier, Dominique [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France)

    2011-02-15

    The reliability analysis of new technology-based transmitters has to deal with specific issues: various interactions between both material elements and functions, undefined behaviours under faulty conditions, several transmitted data, and little reliability feedback. To handle these particularities, a '3-step' model is proposed, based on goal tree-success tree (GTST) approaches to represent both the functional and material aspects, and includes the faults and failures as a third part for supporting reliability analyses. The behavioural aspects are provided by relationship matrices, also denoted master logic diagrams (MLD), with stochastic values which represent direct relationships between system elements. Relationship analyses are then proposed to assess the effect of any fault or failure on any material element or function. Taking these relationships into account, the probabilities of malfunction and failure modes are evaluated according to time. Furthermore, uncertainty analyses tend to show that even if the input data and system behaviour are not well known, these previous results can be obtained in a relatively precise way. An illustration is provided by a case study on an infrared gas transmitter. These properties make the proposed model and corresponding reliability analyses especially suitable for intelligent transmitters (or 'smart sensors').

  8. Reliability Assessment and Reliability-Based Inspection and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, José Rangel

    actions are the most relevant and effective means of control of deterioration. The risk-based inspection planning methodology, based on Bayesian decision theory, represents an important tool to identify the suitable strategy to inspect and control the deterioration in structures such as offshore wind...... performance during the life cycle. The deterioration processes, such as fatigue and corrosion, are typically affecting offshore structural systems. This damage decreases the system performance and increases the risk of failure, thus not fulfilling the established safety criteria. Inspection and maintenance...... to their offshore location, no pollution risks and low human risks since they are unmanned. This allows the allocation of lower reliability level compared to e.g. oil & gas installations. With the incursion to water depths between 20 and 50 meters, the use of jacket and tripod structures represents a feasible...

  9. Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai An

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new hybrid reliability index definition is presented based on the random–fuzzy–interval model. Furthermore, the calculation flowchart of the hybrid reliability index is presented and it is solved using the modified limit-step length iterative algorithm, which ensures convergence. And the validity of convergent algorithm for the hybrid reliability model is verified through the calculation examples in literature. In the end, a numerical example is demonstrated to show that the hybrid reliability index is applicable for the wear reliability assessment of mechanisms, where truncated random variables, fuzzy random variables, and interval variables coexist. The demonstration also shows the good convergence of the iterative algorithm proposed in this article.

  10. Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todinov, M T

    2006-04-01

    The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

  11. Development of seismic technology and reliability based on vibration tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Youichi

    1997-01-01

    This paper deals with some of the vibration tests and investigations on the seismic safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Japan. To ensure the reliability of the seismic safety of nuclear power plants, nuclear power plants in Japan have been designed according to the Technical Guidelines for Aseismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants. This guideline has been developed based on technical date base and findings which were obtained from many vibration tests and investigations. Besides the tests for the guideline, proving tests on seismic reliability of operating nuclear power plants equipment and systems have been carried out. In this paper some vibration tests and their evaluation results are presented. They have crucially contributed to develop the guideline. (J.P.N.)

  12. Development of seismic technology and reliability based on vibration tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasaki, Youichi [Nuclear Power Engineering Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    This paper deals with some of the vibration tests and investigations on the seismic safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Japan. To ensure the reliability of the seismic safety of nuclear power plants, nuclear power plants in Japan have been designed according to the Technical Guidelines for Aseismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants. This guideline has been developed based on technical date base and findings which were obtained from many vibration tests and investigations. Besides the tests for the guideline, proving tests on seismic reliability of operating nuclear power plants equipment and systems have been carried out. In this paper some vibration tests and their evaluation results are presented. They have crucially contributed to develop the guideline. (J.P.N.)

  13. Modeling Sensor Reliability in Fault Diagnosis Based on Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijuan Yuan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensor data fusion plays an important role in fault diagnosis. Dempster–Shafer (D-R evidence theory is widely used in fault diagnosis, since it is efficient to combine evidence from different sensors. However, under the situation where the evidence highly conflicts, it may obtain a counterintuitive result. To address the issue, a new method is proposed in this paper. Not only the statistic sensor reliability, but also the dynamic sensor reliability are taken into consideration. The evidence distance function and the belief entropy are combined to obtain the dynamic reliability of each sensor report. A weighted averaging method is adopted to modify the conflict evidence by assigning different weights to evidence according to sensor reliability. The proposed method has better performance in conflict management and fault diagnosis due to the fact that the information volume of each sensor report is taken into consideration. An application in fault diagnosis based on sensor fusion is illustrated to show the efficiency of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of fault diagnosis from 81.19% to 89.48% compared to the existing methods.

  14. Stochastic Differential Equation-Based Flexible Software Reliability Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Kapur

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several software reliability growth models (SRGMs have been developed by software developers in tracking and measuring the growth of reliability. As the size of software system is large and the number of faults detected during the testing phase becomes large, so the change of the number of faults that are detected and removed through each debugging becomes sufficiently small compared with the initial fault content at the beginning of the testing phase. In such a situation, we can model the software fault detection process as a stochastic process with continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a new software reliability growth model based on Itô type of stochastic differential equation. We consider an SDE-based generalized Erlang model with logistic error detection function. The model is estimated and validated on real-life data sets cited in literature to show its flexibility. The proposed model integrated with the concept of stochastic differential equation performs comparatively better than the existing NHPP-based models.

  15. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  16. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Joe, Jeffrey; Smith, Curtis; Groth, Katrina

    2015-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  17. Failure mechanism dependence and reliability evaluation of non-repairable system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ying; Yang, Liu; Ye, Cui; Kang, Rui

    2015-01-01

    Reliability study of electronic system with the physics-of-failure method has been promoted due to the increase knowledge of electronic failure mechanisms. System failure initiates from independent failure mechanisms, have effect on or affect by other failure mechanisms and finally result in system failure. Failure mechanisms in a non-repairable system have many kinds of correlation. One failure mechanism developing to a certain degree will trigger, accelerate or inhibit another or many other failure mechanisms, some kind of failure mechanisms may have the same effect on the failure site, component or system. The destructive effect will be accumulated and result in early failure. This paper presents a reliability evaluation method considering correlativity among failure mechanisms, which includes trigger, acceleration, inhibition, accumulation, and competition. Based on fundamental rule of physics of failure, decoupling methods of these correlations are discussed. With a case, reliability of electronic system is evaluated considering failure mechanism dependence. - Highlights: • Five types of failure mechanism correlations are described. • Decoupling methods of these correlations are discussed. • A reliability evaluation method considering mechanism dependence is proposed. • Results are quite different to results under failure independence assumption

  18. Reliability-Based Structural Optimization of Wave Energy Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Kramer, Morten; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    More and more wave energy converter (WEC) concepts are reaching prototype level. Once the prototype level is reached, the next step in order to further decrease the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is optimizing the overall system with a focus on structural and maintenance (inspection) costs......, as well as on the harvested power from the waves. The target of a fully-developed WEC technology is not maximizing its power output, but minimizing the resulting LCOE. This paper presents a methodology to optimize the structural design of WECs based on a reliability-based optimization problem...

  19. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  20. Statistical Bayesian method for reliability evaluation based on ADT data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dawei; Wang, Lizhi; Sun, Yusheng; Wang, Xiaohong

    2018-05-01

    Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is frequently conducted in the laboratory to predict the products’ reliability under normal operating conditions. Two kinds of methods, degradation path models and stochastic process models, are utilized to analyze degradation data and the latter one is the most popular method. However, some limitations like imprecise solution process and estimation result of degradation ratio still exist, which may affect the accuracy of the acceleration model and the extrapolation value. Moreover, the conducted solution of this problem, Bayesian method, lose key information when unifying the degradation data. In this paper, a new data processing and parameter inference method based on Bayesian method is proposed to handle degradation data and solve the problems above. First, Wiener process and acceleration model is chosen; Second, the initial values of degradation model and parameters of prior and posterior distribution under each level is calculated with updating and iteration of estimation values; Third, the lifetime and reliability values are estimated on the basis of the estimation parameters; Finally, a case study is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the proposed method is quite effective and accuracy in estimating the lifetime and reliability of a product.

  1. IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomic, B.; Lederman, L.

    1988-01-01

    Reliability data are an essential part of probabilistic safety assessment. The quality of data can determine the quality of the study as a whole. It is obvious that component failure data originated from the plant being analyzed would be most appropriate. However, in few cases complete reliance on plant experience is possible, mainly because of the rather limited operating experience. Nuclear plants, although of different design, often use fairly similar components, so some of the experience could be combined and transferred from one plant to another. In addition information about component failures is available also from experts with knowledge on component design, manufacturing and operation. That bring us to the importance of assessing generic data. (Generic is meant to be everything that is not plant specific regarding the plant being analyzed). The generic data available in the open literature, can be divided in three broad categories. The first one includes data base used in previous analysis. These can be plant specific or updated from generic with plant specific information (latter case deserve special attention). The second one is based on compilation of plants' operating experience usually based on some kind of event reporting system. The third category includes data sources based on expert opinions (single or aggregate) or combination of expert opinions and other nuclear and non-nuclear experience. This paper reflects insights gained in compiling data from generic data sources and highlights advantages and pitfalls of using generic component reliability data in PSAs

  2. Reliability-based inspection of prestressed concrete containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandey, M.D.

    1996-03-01

    A study was undertaken to develop a reliability-based approach to the planning of inspection programs for prestressed concrete containment structures. The main function of the prestressing system is to ensure the leak integrity of the containment by maintaining a compressive state of stress under the tensile forces which arise in a hypothesized loss of coolant accident. Prestressing force losses (due to creep and shrinkage, stress relaxation or tendon corrosion) can lead to tensile stresses under accident pressure, resulting in loss of containment leak integrity due to concrete cracking and tensile yielding of the non-prestressed reinforcement. Therefore, the evaluation of prestressing inspection programs was based on their effectiveness in maintaining an acceptable reliability level with respect to a limit state representing yeilding of non-prestressed reinforcement. An annual target reliability of 10 -4 was used for this limit state. As specified in CSA-N287.7, the evaluation of prestressing systems for containment structures is based on the results of lift-off tests to determine the prestressing force. For unbonded systems the tests are carried out on a randomly selected sample from each tendon group in the structure. For bonded systems, the test is carried out on an unbonded test beam that matches the section geometry and material properties of the containment structure. It was found that flexural testing is useful in updating the probability of concrete cracking under accident pressure. For unbonded systems, the analysis indicated that the sample size recommended by the CSA Standard (4% of the tendon population) is adequate. The CSA recommendation for a five year inspection interval is conservative unless severe degradation of the prestressing system, characterized by a high prestressing loss rate (>3%) and a large coefficient of variation of the measured prestressing force (>15%), is observed

  3. Reliability-Based Inspection Planning for Structural Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1993-01-01

    A general model for reliability-based optimal inspection and repair strategies for structural systems is described. The total expected costs in the design lifetime is minimized with the number of inspections, the inspection times and efforts as decision variables. The equivalence of this model...... with a preposterior analysis from statistical decision theory is discussed. It is described how information obtained by an inspection can be used in a repair decision. Stochastic models for inspection, measurement and repair actions are presented. The general model is applied for inspection and repair planning...

  4. Reliability-Based Structural Optimization of Wave Energy Converters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Ambühl

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available More and more wave energy converter (WEC concepts are reaching prototypelevel. Once the prototype level is reached, the next step in order to further decrease thelevelized cost of energy (LCOE is optimizing the overall system with a focus on structuraland maintenance (inspection costs, as well as on the harvested power from the waves.The target of a fully-developed WEC technology is not maximizing its power output,but minimizing the resulting LCOE. This paper presents a methodology to optimize thestructural design of WECs based on a reliability-based optimization problem and the intentto maximize the investor’s benefits by maximizing the difference between income (e.g., fromselling electricity and the expected expenses (e.g., structural building costs or failure costs.Furthermore, different development levels, like prototype or commercial devices, may havedifferent main objectives and will be located at different locations, as well as receive varioussubsidies. These points should be accounted for when performing structural optimizationsof WECs. An illustrative example on the gravity-based foundation of the Wavestar deviceis performed showing how structural design can be optimized taking target reliability levelsand different structural failure modes due to extreme loads into account.

  5. Imprecise system reliability and component importance based on survival signature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Geng; Patelli, Edoardo; Beer, Michael; Coolen, Frank P.A.

    2016-01-01

    The concept of the survival signature has recently attracted increasing attention for performing reliability analysis on systems with multiple types of components. It opens a new pathway for a structured approach with high computational efficiency based on a complete probabilistic description of the system. In practical applications, however, some of the parameters of the system might not be defined completely due to limited data, which implies the need to take imprecisions of component specifications into account. This paper presents a methodology to include explicitly the imprecision, which leads to upper and lower bounds of the survival function of the system. In addition, the approach introduces novel and efficient component importance measures. By implementing relative importance index of each component without or with imprecision, the most critical component in the system can be identified depending on the service time of the system. Simulation method based on survival signature is introduced to deal with imprecision within components, which is precise and efficient. Numerical example is presented to show the applicability of the approach for systems. - Highlights: • Survival signature is a novel way for system reliability and component importance • High computational efficiency based on a complete description of system. • Include explicitly the imprecision, which leads to bounds of the survival function. • A novel relative importance index is proposed as importance measure. • Allows to identify critical components depending on the service time of the system.

  6. A methodology for strain-based fatigue reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Y.X.

    2000-01-01

    A significant scatter of the cyclic stress-strain (CSS) responses should be noted for a nuclear reactor material, 1Cr18Ni9Ti pipe-weld metal. Existence of the scatter implies that a random cyclic strain applied history will be introduced under any of the loading modes even a deterministic loading history. A non-conservative evaluation might be given in the practice without considering the scatter. A methodology for strain-based fatigue reliability analysis, which has taken into account the scatter, is developed. The responses are approximately modeled by probability-based CSS curves of Ramberg-Osgood relation. The strain-life data are modeled, similarly, by probability-based strain-life curves of Coffin-Manson law. The reliability assessment is constructed by considering interference of the random fatigue strain applied and capacity histories. Probability density functions of the applied and capacity histories are analytically given. The methodology could be conveniently extrapolated to the case of deterministic CSS relation as the existent methods did. Non-conservative evaluation of the deterministic CSS relation and availability of present methodology have been indicated by an analysis of the material test results

  7. Generic Reliability-Based Inspection Planning for Fatigue Sensitive Details

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Straub, Daniel; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2005-01-01

    of fatigue sensitive details in fixed offshore steel jacket platforms and FPSO ship structures. Inspection and maintenance activities are planned such that code based requirements to the safety of personnel and environment for the considered structure are fulfilled and at the same time such that the overall......The generic approach for planning of in-service NDT inspections is extended to cover the case where the fatigue load is modified during the design lifetime of the structure. Generic reliability-based inspection planning has been developed as a practical approach to perform inspection planning...... expected costs for design, inspections, repairs and failures are minimized. The method is based on the assumption of “no-finds” of cracks during inspections. Each fatigue sensitive detail is categorized according to their type of details (SN curves), FDF values, RSR values, inspection, repair and failure...

  8. 49 CFR Appendix E to Part 238 - General Principles of Reliability-Based Maintenance Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... STANDARDS Pt. 238, App. E Appendix E to Part 238—General Principles of Reliability-Based Maintenance... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false General Principles of Reliability-Based... the design level of safety and reliability of the equipment; (2) To restore safety and reliability to...

  9. Fault detection and reliability, knowledge based and other approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M.G.; Hindi, K.S.; Tzafestas, S.G.

    1987-01-01

    These proceedings are split up into four major parts in order to reflect the most significant aspects of reliability and fault detection as viewed at present. The first part deals with knowledge-based systems and comprises eleven contributions from leading experts in the field. The emphasis here is primarily on the use of artificial intelligence, expert systems and other knowledge-based systems for fault detection and reliability. The second part is devoted to fault detection of technological systems and comprises thirteen contributions dealing with applications of fault detection techniques to various technological systems such as gas networks, electric power systems, nuclear reactors and assembly cells. The third part of the proceedings, which consists of seven contributions, treats robust, fault tolerant and intelligent controllers and covers methodological issues as well as several applications ranging from nuclear power plants to industrial robots to steel grinding. The fourth part treats fault tolerant digital techniques and comprises five contributions. Two papers, one on reactor noise analysis, the other on reactor control system design, are indexed separately. (author)

  10. An accurate and efficient reliability-based design optimization using the second order reliability method and improved stability transformation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Zeng; Yang, Dixiong; Zhou, Huanlin; Yu, Bo

    2018-05-01

    The first order reliability method has been extensively adopted for reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), but it shows inaccuracy in calculating the failure probability with highly nonlinear performance functions. Thus, the second order reliability method is required to evaluate the reliability accurately. However, its application for RBDO is quite challenge owing to the expensive computational cost incurred by the repeated reliability evaluation and Hessian calculation of probabilistic constraints. In this article, a new improved stability transformation method is proposed to search the most probable point efficiently, and the Hessian matrix is calculated by the symmetric rank-one update. The computational capability of the proposed method is illustrated and compared to the existing RBDO approaches through three mathematical and two engineering examples. The comparison results indicate that the proposed method is very efficient and accurate, providing an alternative tool for RBDO of engineering structures.

  11. Multisite Reliability of MR-Based Functional Connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, Stephanie; Scheinost, Dustin; Finn, Emily S.; Shen, Xilin; Papademetris, Xenophon; McEwen, Sarah C.; Bearden, Carrie E.; Addington, Jean; Goodyear, Bradley; Cadenhead, Kristin S.; Mirzakhanian, Heline; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; Olvet, Doreen M.; Mathalon, Daniel H.; McGlashan, Thomas H.; Perkins, Diana O.; Belger, Aysenil; Seidman, Larry J.; Thermenos, Heidi; Tsuang, Ming T.; van Erp, Theo G.M.; Walker, Elaine F.; Hamann, Stephan; Woods, Scott W.; Cannon, Tyrone D.; Constable, R. Todd

    2016-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed an increasing number of multisite MRI functional connectivity (fcMRI) studies. While multisite studies are an efficient way to speed up data collection and increase sample sizes, especially for rare clinical populations, any effects of site or MRI scanner could ultimately limit power and weaken results. Little data exists on the stability of functional connectivity measurements across sites and sessions. In this study, we assess the influence of site and session on resting state functional connectivity measurements in a healthy cohort of traveling subjects (8 subjects scanned twice at each of 8 sites) scanned as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS). Reliability was investigated in three types of connectivity analyses: (1) seed-based connectivity with posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), right motor cortex (RMC), and left thalamus (LT) as seeds; (2) the intrinsic connectivity distribution (ICD), a voxel-wise connectivity measure; and (3) matrix connectivity, a whole-brain, atlas-based approach assessing connectivity between nodes. Contributions to variability in connectivity due to subject, site, and day-of-scan were quantified and used to assess between-session (test-retest) reliability in accordance with Generalizability Theory. Overall, no major site, scanner manufacturer, or day-of-scan effects were found for the univariate connectivity analyses; instead, subject effects dominated relative to the other measured factors. However, summaries of voxel-wise connectivity were found to be sensitive to site and scanner manufacturer effects. For all connectivity measures, although subject variance was three times the site variance, the residual represented 60–80% of the variance, indicating that connectivity differed greatly from scan to scan independent of any of the measured factors (i.e., subject, site, and day-of-scan). Thus, for a single 5 min scan, reliability across connectivity measures was poor (ICC=0.07–0

  12. Usage models in reliability assessment of software-based systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haapanen, P.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland); Korhonen, J. [VTT Electronics, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-04-01

    This volume in the OHA-project report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in the OHA-project report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. In this report the issues related to the statistical testing and especially automated test case generation are considered. The goal is to find an efficient method for building usage models for the generation of statistically significant set of test cases and to gather practical experiences from this method by applying it in a case study. The scope of the study also includes the tool support for the method, as the models may grow quite large and complex. (32 refs., 30 figs.).

  13. Usage models in reliability assessment of software-based systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haapanen, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Korhonen, J.

    1997-04-01

    This volume in the OHA-project report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in the OHA-project report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. In this report the issues related to the statistical testing and especially automated test case generation are considered. The goal is to find an efficient method for building usage models for the generation of statistically significant set of test cases and to gather practical experiences from this method by applying it in a case study. The scope of the study also includes the tool support for the method, as the models may grow quite large and complex. (32 refs., 30 figs.)

  14. Reliability assessment using Bayesian networks. Case study on quantative reliability estimation of a software-based motor protection relay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helminen, A.; Pulkkinen, U.

    2003-06-01

    In this report a quantitative reliability assessment of motor protection relay SPAM 150 C has been carried out. The assessment focuses to the methodological analysis of the quantitative reliability assessment using the software-based motor protection relay as a case study. The assessment method is based on Bayesian networks and tries to take the full advantage of the previous work done in a project called Programmable Automation System Safety Integrity assessment (PASSI). From the results and experiences achieved during the work it is justified to claim that the assessment method presented in the work enables a flexible use of qualitative and quantitative elements of reliability related evidence in a single reliability assessment. At the same time the assessment method is a concurrent way of reasoning one's beliefs and references about the reliability of the system. Full advantage of the assessment method is taken when using the method as a way to cultivate the information related to the reliability of software-based systems. The method can also be used as a communicational instrument in a licensing process of software-based systems. (orig.)

  15. Analogical reasoning for reliability analysis based on generic data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozin, Igor O

    1996-10-01

    The paper suggests using the systemic concept 'analogy' for the foundation of an approach to analyze system reliability on the basis of generic data, describing the method of structuring the set that defines analogical models, an approach of transition from the analogical model to a reliability model and a way of obtaining reliability intervals of analogous objects.

  16. Analogical reasoning for reliability analysis based on generic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, Igor O.

    1996-01-01

    The paper suggests using the systemic concept 'analogy' for the foundation of an approach to analyze system reliability on the basis of generic data, describing the method of structuring the set that defines analogical models, an approach of transition from the analogical model to a reliability model and a way of obtaining reliability intervals of analogous objects

  17. Identification of Black Spots Based on Reliability Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmadreza Ghaffari

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Identifying crash “black-spots”, “hot-spots” or “high-risk” locations is one of the most important and prevalent concerns in traffic safety and various methods have been devised and presented for solving this issue until now. In this paper, a new method based on the reliability analysis is presented to identify black-spots. Reliability analysis has an ordered framework to consider the probabilistic nature of engineering problems, so crashes with their probabilistic na -ture can be applied. In this study, the application of this new method was compared with the commonly implemented Frequency and Empirical Bayesian methods using simulated data. The results indicated that the traditional methods can lead to an inconsistent prediction due to their inconsider -ation of the variance of the number of crashes in each site and their dependence on the mean of the data.

  18. Enhancing product robustness in reliability-based design optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuang, Xiaotian; Pan, Rong; Du, Xiaoping

    2015-01-01

    Different types of uncertainties need to be addressed in a product design optimization process. In this paper, the uncertainties in both product design variables and environmental noise variables are considered. The reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is integrated with robust product design (RPD) to concurrently reduce the production cost and the long-term operation cost, including quality loss, in the process of product design. This problem leads to a multi-objective optimization with probabilistic constraints. In addition, the model uncertainties associated with a surrogate model that is derived from numerical computation methods, such as finite element analysis, is addressed. A hierarchical experimental design approach, augmented by a sequential sampling strategy, is proposed to construct the response surface of product performance function for finding optimal design solutions. The proposed method is demonstrated through an engineering example. - Highlights: • A unifying framework for integrating RBDO and RPD is proposed. • Implicit product performance function is considered. • The design problem is solved by sequential optimization and reliability assessment. • A sequential sampling technique is developed for improving design optimization. • The comparison with traditional RBDO is provided

  19. A G-function-based reliability-based design methodology applied to a cam roller system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W.; Sui, P.; Wu, Y.T.

    1996-01-01

    Conventional reliability-based design optimization methods treats the reliability function as an ordinary function and applies existing mathematical programming techniques to solve the design problem. As a result, the conventional approach requires nested loops with respect to g-function, and is very time consuming. A new reliability-based design method is proposed in this paper that deals with the g-function directly instead of the reliability function. This approach has the potential of significantly reducing the number of calls for g-function calculations since it requires only one full reliability analysis in a design iteration. A cam roller system in a typical high pressure fuel injection diesel engine is designed using both the proposed and the conventional approach. The proposed method is much more efficient for this application

  20. Reliability, compliance, and security in web-based course assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Bonham

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Pre- and postcourse assessment has become a very important tool for education research in physics and other areas. The web offers an attractive alternative to in-class paper administration, but concerns about web-based administration include reliability due to changes in medium, student compliance rates, and test security, both question leakage and utilization of web resources. An investigation was carried out in introductory astronomy courses comparing pre- and postcourse administration of assessments using the web and on paper. Overall no difference was seen in performance due to the medium. Compliance rates fluctuated greatly, and factors that seemed to produce higher rates are identified. Notably, email reminders increased compliance by 20%. Most of the 559 students complied with requests to not copy, print, or save questions nor use web resources; about 1% did copy some question text and around 2% frequently used other windows or applications while completing the assessment.

  1. Model-based human reliability analysis: prospects and requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Chang, Y.H.

    2004-01-01

    Major limitations of the conventional methods for human reliability analysis (HRA), particularly those developed for operator response analysis in probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) of nuclear power plants, are summarized as a motivation for the need and a basis for developing requirements for the next generation HRA methods. It is argued that a model-based approach that provides explicit cognitive causal links between operator behaviors and directly or indirectly measurable causal factors should be at the core of the advanced methods. An example of such causal model is briefly reviewed, where due to the model complexity and input requirements can only be currently implemented in a dynamic PSA environment. The computer simulation code developed for this purpose is also described briefly, together with current limitations in the models, data, and the computer implementation

  2. Numerical Model based Reliability Estimation of Selective Laser Melting Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohanty, Sankhya; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2014-01-01

    Selective laser melting is developing into a standard manufacturing technology with applications in various sectors. However, the process is still far from being at par with conventional processes such as welding and casting, the primary reason of which is the unreliability of the process. While...... of the selective laser melting process. A validated 3D finite-volume alternating-direction-implicit numerical technique is used to model the selective laser melting process, and is calibrated against results from single track formation experiments. Correlation coefficients are determined for process input...... parameters such as laser power, speed, beam profile, etc. Subsequently, uncertainties in the processing parameters are utilized to predict a range for the various outputs, using a Monte Carlo method based uncertainty analysis methodology, and the reliability of the process is established....

  3. Assessing segment- and corridor-based travel-time reliability on urban freeways : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Travel time and its reliability are intuitive performance measures for freeway traffic operations. The objective of this project was to quantify segment-based and corridor-based travel time reliability measures on urban freeways. To achieve this obje...

  4. Science Based Human Reliability Analysis: Using Digital Nuclear Power Plant Simulators for Human Reliability Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth

    Nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators are proliferating in academic research institutions and national laboratories in response to the availability of affordable, digital simulator platforms. Accompanying the new research facilities is a renewed interest in using data collected in NPP simulators for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) research. An experiment conducted in The Ohio State University (OSU) NPP Simulator Facility develops data collection methods and analytical tools to improve use of simulator data in HRA. In the pilot experiment, student operators respond to design basis accidents in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility. Thirty-three undergraduate and graduate engineering students participated in the research. Following each accident scenario, student operators completed a survey about perceived simulator biases and watched a video of the scenario. During the video, they periodically recorded their perceived strength of significant Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) such as Stress. This dissertation reviews three aspects of simulator-based research using the data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility: First, a qualitative comparison of student operator performance to computer simulations of expected operator performance generated by the Information Decision Action Crew (IDAC) HRA method. Areas of comparison include procedure steps, timing of operator actions, and PSFs. Second, development of a quantitative model of the simulator bias introduced by the simulator environment. Two types of bias are defined: Environmental Bias and Motivational Bias. This research examines Motivational Bias--that is, the effect of the simulator environment on an operator's motivations, goals, and priorities. A bias causal map is introduced to model motivational bias interactions in the OSU experiment. Data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility are analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Data include crew characteristics, operator surveys, and time to recognize

  5. Reliability-based optimal structural design by the decoupling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Royset, J.O.; Der Kiureghian, A.; Polak, E.

    2001-01-01

    A decoupling approach for solving optimal structural design problems involving reliability terms in the objective function, the constraint set or both is discussed and extended. The approach employs a reformulation of each problem, in which reliability terms are replaced by deterministic functions. The reformulated problems can be solved by existing semi-infinite optimization algorithms and computational reliability methods. It is shown that the reformulated problems produce solutions that are identical to those of the original problems when the limit-state functions defining the reliability problem are affine. For nonaffine limit-state functions, approximate solutions are obtained by solving series of reformulated problems. An important advantage of the approach is that the required reliability and optimization calculations are completely decoupled, thus allowing flexibility in the choice of the optimization algorithm and the reliability computation method

  6. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.

    1996-01-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  7. Reliability Based Geometric Design of Horizontal Circular Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajbongshi, Pabitra; Kalita, Kuldeep

    2018-06-01

    Geometric design of horizontal circular curve primarily involves with radius of the curve and stopping sight distance at the curve section. Minimum radius is decided based on lateral thrust exerted on the vehicles and the minimum stopping sight distance is provided to maintain the safety in longitudinal direction of vehicles. Available sight distance at site can be regulated by changing the radius and middle ordinate at the curve section. Both radius and sight distance depend on design speed. Speed of vehicles at any road section is a variable parameter and therefore, normally the 98th percentile speed is taken as the design speed. This work presents a probabilistic approach for evaluating stopping sight distance, considering the variability of all input parameters of sight distance. It is observed that the 98th percentile sight distance value is much lower than the sight distance corresponding to 98th percentile speed. The distribution of sight distance parameter is also studied and found to follow a lognormal distribution. Finally, the reliability based design charts are presented for both plain and hill regions, and considering the effect of lateral thrust.

  8. Reliability Based Geometric Design of Horizontal Circular Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajbongshi, Pabitra; Kalita, Kuldeep

    2018-03-01

    Geometric design of horizontal circular curve primarily involves with radius of the curve and stopping sight distance at the curve section. Minimum radius is decided based on lateral thrust exerted on the vehicles and the minimum stopping sight distance is provided to maintain the safety in longitudinal direction of vehicles. Available sight distance at site can be regulated by changing the radius and middle ordinate at the curve section. Both radius and sight distance depend on design speed. Speed of vehicles at any road section is a variable parameter and therefore, normally the 98th percentile speed is taken as the design speed. This work presents a probabilistic approach for evaluating stopping sight distance, considering the variability of all input parameters of sight distance. It is observed that the 98th percentile sight distance value is much lower than the sight distance corresponding to 98th percentile speed. The distribution of sight distance parameter is also studied and found to follow a lognormal distribution. Finally, the reliability based design charts are presented for both plain and hill regions, and considering the effect of lateral thrust.

  9. Risk-based Optimization and Reliability Levels of Coastal Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, H. F.

    Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure, in...... on the minimumcost reliability levels is investigated for different values of the real rate of interest, the service lifetime, the downtime costs due to malfunction and the decommission costs.......Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure...

  10. Risk-based Optimization and Reliability Levels of Coastal Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.

    2005-01-01

     Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure, i...... on the minimumcost reliability levels is investigated for different values of the real rate of interest, the service lifetime, the downtime costs due to malfunction and the decommission costs....... Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure...

  11. Development of reliability-based safety enhancement technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kil Yoo; Han, Sang Hoon; Jang, Seung Cherl

    2002-04-01

    This project aims to develop critical technologies and the necessary reliability DB for maximizing the economics in the NPP operation with keeping the safety using the information of the risk (or reliability). For the research goal, firstly the four critical technologies(Risk Informed Tech. Spec. Optimization, Risk Informed Inservice Testing, On-line Maintenance, Maintenance Rule) for RIR and A have been developed. Secondly, KIND (Korea Information System for Nuclear Reliability Data) has been developed. Using KIND, YGN 3,4 and UCN 3,4 component reliability DB have been established. A reactor trip history DB for all NPP in Korea also has been developed and analyzed. Finally, a detailed reliability analysis of RPS/ESFAS for KNSP has been performed. With the result of the analysis, the sensitivity analysis also has been performed to optimize the AOT/STI of tech. spec. A statistical analysis procedure and computer code have been developed for the set point drift analysis

  12. RELIABILITY MODELING BASED ON INCOMPLETE DATA: OIL PUMP APPLICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed HAFAIFA

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The reliability analysis for industrial maintenance is now increasingly demanded by the industrialists in the world. Indeed, the modern manufacturing facilities are equipped by data acquisition and monitoring system, these systems generates a large volume of data. These data can be used to infer future decisions affecting the health facilities. These data can be used to infer future decisions affecting the state of the exploited equipment. However, in most practical cases the data used in reliability modelling are incomplete or not reliable. In this context, to analyze the reliability of an oil pump, this work proposes to examine and treat the incomplete, incorrect or aberrant data to the reliability modeling of an oil pump. The objective of this paper is to propose a suitable methodology for replacing the incomplete data using a regression method.

  13. Simulation and Non-Simulation Based Human Reliability Analysis Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk model. In this report, we review simulation-based and non-simulation-based human reliability assessment (HRA) methods. Chapter 2 surveys non-simulation-based HRA methods. Conventional HRA methods target static Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Level 1 events. These methods would require significant modification for use in dynamic simulation of Level 2 and Level 3 events. Chapter 3 is a review of human performance models. A variety of methods and models simulate dynamic human performance; however, most of these human performance models were developed outside the risk domain and have not been used for HRA. The exception is the ADS-IDAC model, which can be thought of as a virtual operator program. This model is resource-intensive but provides a detailed model of every operator action in a given scenario, along with models of numerous factors that can influence operator performance. Finally, Chapter 4 reviews the treatment of timing of operator actions in HRA methods. This chapter is an example of one of the critical gaps between existing HRA methods and the needs of dynamic HRA. This report summarizes the foundational information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human interactions in the RISMC simulations.

  14. RELIABILITY BASED DESIGN OF FIXED FOUNDATION WIND TURBINES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nichols, R.

    2013-10-14

    Recent analysis of offshore wind turbine foundations using both applicable API and IEC standards show that the total load demand from wind and waves is greatest in wave driven storms. Further, analysis of overturning moment loads (OTM) reveal that impact forces exerted by breaking waves are the largest contributor to OTM in big storms at wind speeds above the operating range of 25 m/s. Currently, no codes or standards for offshore wind power generators have been adopted by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) for use on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Current design methods based on allowable stress design (ASD) incorporate the uncertainty in the variation of loads transferred to the foundation and geotechnical capacity of the soil and rock to support the loads is incorporated into a factor of safety. Sources of uncertainty include spatial and temporal variation of engineering properties, reliability of property measurements applicability and sufficiency of sampling and testing methods, modeling errors, and variability of estimated load predictions. In ASD these sources of variability are generally given qualitative rather than quantitative consideration. The IEC 61400‐3 design standard for offshore wind turbines is based on ASD methods. Load and resistance factor design (LRFD) methods are being increasingly used in the design of structures. Uncertainties such as those listed above can be included quantitatively into the LRFD process. In LRFD load factors and resistance factors are statistically based. This type of analysis recognizes that there is always some probability of failure and enables the probability of failure to be quantified. This paper presents an integrated approach consisting of field observations and numerical simulation to establish the distribution of loads from breaking waves to support the LRFD of fixed offshore foundations.

  15. Reliability of microprocessor-based relay protection devices: Myths and reality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurevich Vladimir

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The article examines four basic theses about the ostensibly extremely high reliability of microprocessor-based relay protection (MP touted by supporters of MP. Through detailed analysis based on many references it is shown that the basis of these theses are widespread myths, and actually MP reliability is lower than the reliability of electromechanical and electronic protective relays on discrete components.

  16. Reliability-Based Optimal Design for Very Large Floating Structure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Shu-hua(张淑华); FUJIKUBO Masahiko

    2003-01-01

    Costs and losses induced by possible future extreme environmental conditions and difficulties in repairing post-yielding damage strongly suggest the need for proper consideration in design rather than just life loss prevention. This can be addressed through the development of design methodology that balances the initial cost of the very large floating structure (VLFS) against the expected potential losses resulting from future extreme wave-induced structural damage. Here, the development of a methodology for determining optimal, cost-effective design will be presented and applied to a VLFS located in the Tokyo bay. Optimal design criteria are determined based on the total expected life-cycle cost and acceptable damage probability and curvature of the structure, and a set of sizes of the structure are obtained. The methodology and applications require expressions of the initial cost and the expected life-cycle damage cost as functions of the optimal design variables. This study includes the methodology, total life-cycle cost function, structural damage modeling, and reliability analysis.

  17. Oil inventories should be based on margins, supply reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waguespack, K.; Cantor, B.D.

    1996-01-01

    US oil inventories have plummeted to their lowest recorded levels this year, leading industry observers to conclude that refiners have adopted new just-in-time (JIT) inventory policies. Total crude oil inventories are about 300 million bbl -- 8% below the 10-year average. Distillate inventories posted similar declines this year because of unusually cold winter temperatures and refiners' reluctance to build sufficient stocks in the autumn months. Gasoline stocks are 20% below the 10-year average at 200 million bbl, despite forecasts of record-high gasoline demand this summer. The sudden drop in crude and product inventories this year is widely considered a sign that refiners have implemented JIT, signaling a permanent shift to reduced stocks. The authors submit that the shift towards reduced oil inventories is not related to a concerted adoption of JIT by US refiners, and that oil inventory management decisions should instead be based on refining margins and supply reliability. The paper discusses the JIT revolution and the optimal-inventory model

  18. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  19. Safety and reliability analysis based on nonprobabilistic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.O.; Petersen, K.E.

    1996-01-01

    Imprecise probabilities, being developed during the last two decades, offer a considerably more general theory having many advantages which make it very promising for reliability and safety analysis. The objective of the paper is to argue that imprecise probabilities are more appropriate tool for reliability and safety analysis, that they allow to model the behavior of nuclear industry objects more comprehensively and give a possibility to solve some problems unsolved in the framework of conventional approach. Furthermore, some specific examples are given from which we can see the usefulness of the tool for solving some reliability tasks

  20. A Vision for Spaceflight Reliability: NASA's Objectives Based Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groen, Frank; Evans, John; Hall, Tony

    2015-01-01

    In defining the direction for a new Reliability and Maintainability standard, OSMA has extracted the essential objectives that our programs need, to undertake a reliable mission. These objectives have been structured to lead mission planning through construction of an objective hierarchy, which defines the critical approaches for achieving high reliability and maintainability (R M). Creating a hierarchy, as a basis for assurance implementation, is a proven approach; yet, it holds the opportunity to enable new directions, as NASA moves forward in tackling the challenges of space exploration.

  1. Condition-based Human Reliability Assessment for digitalized control room

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, H. G.; Jang, S. C.; Eom, H. S.; Ha, J. J.

    2005-04-01

    In safety-critical systems, the generation failure of an actuation signal is caused by the concurrent failures of the automated systems and an operator action. These two sources of safety signals are complicatedly correlated. The failures of sensors or automated systems will cause a lack of necessary information for a human operator and result in error-forcing contexts such as the loss of corresponding alarms and indications. In the conventional analysis, the Human Error Probabilities (HEP) are estimated based on the assumption of 'normal condition of indications and alarms'. In order to construct a more realistic signal-generation failure model, we have to consider more complicated conditions in a more realistic manner. In this study, we performed two kinds of investigation for addressing this issue. We performed the analytic calculations for estimating the effect of sensors failures on the system unavailability and plant risk. For the single-parameter safety signals, the analysis result reveals that the quantification of the HEP should be performed by focusing on the 'no alarm from the automatic system and corresponding indications unavailable' situation. This study also proposes a Condition-Based Human Reliability Assessment (CBHRA) method in order to address these complicated conditions in a practical way. We apply the CBHRA method to the manual actuation of the safety features such as a reactor trip and auxiliary feedwater actuation in Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plants. In the case of conventional single HEP method, it is very hard to consider the multiple HE conditions. The merit of CBHRA is clearly shown in the application to the AFAS generation where no dominating HE condition exits. In this case, even if the HE conditions are carefully investigated, the single HEP method cannot accommodate the multiple conditions in a fault tree. On the other hand, the application result of the reactor trip in SLOCA shows that if there is a dominating condition, the use

  2. Improving the Reliability of Case-Based Reasoning Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Xu

    2010-09-01

    also discussed in this paper, especially the property that whether inter-feature of case exists redundancy. After that, the reliability of an individual suggested solution is studied. To illustrate these ideas, some experiments and their results are discussed in this paper. The results of experiments show a new route concerning on how to improve the reliability of a CBR system at an overall level.

  3. Interrater reliability of a Pilates movement-based classification system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Kwan Kenny; Tulloch, Evelyn; Hendrick, Paul

    2015-01-01

    To determine the interrater reliability for identification of a specific movement pattern using a Pilates Classification system. Videos of 5 subjects performing specific movement tasks were sent to raters trained in the DMA-CP classification system. Ninety-six raters completed the survey. Interrater reliability for the detection of a directional bias was excellent (Pi = 0.92, and K(free) = 0.89). Interrater reliability for classifying an individual into a specific subgroup was moderate (Pi = 0.64, K(free) = 0.55) however raters who had completed levels 1-4 of the DMA-CP training and reported using the assessment daily demonstrated excellent reliability (Pi = 0.89 and K(free) = 0.87). The reliability of the classification system demonstrated almost perfect agreement in determining the existence of a specific movement pattern and classifying into a subgroup for experienced raters. There was a trend for greater reliability associated with increased levels of training and experience of the raters. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Efficient approach for reliability-based optimization based on weighted importance sampling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiukai; Lu, Zhenzhou

    2014-01-01

    An efficient methodology is presented to perform the reliability-based optimization (RBO). It is based on an efficient weighted approach for constructing an approximation of the failure probability as an explicit function of the design variables which is referred to as the ‘failure probability function (FPF)’. It expresses the FPF as a weighted sum of sample values obtained in the simulation-based reliability analysis. The required computational effort for decoupling in each iteration is just single reliability analysis. After the approximation of the FPF is established, the target RBO problem can be decoupled into a deterministic one. Meanwhile, the proposed weighted approach is combined with a decoupling approach and a sequential approximate optimization framework. Engineering examples are given to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the presented methodology

  5. Reliability analysis of a consecutive r-out-of-n: F system based on neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habib, Aziz; Alsieidi, Ragab; Youssef, Ghada

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a generalized Markov reliability and fault-tolerant model, which includes the effects of permanent fault and intermittent fault for reliability evaluations based on neural network techniques. The reliability of a consecutive r-out-of-n: F system was obtained with a three-layer connected neural network represents a discrete time state reliability Markov model of the system. Such that we fed the neural network with the desired reliability of the system under design. Then we extracted the parameters of the system from the neural weights at the convergence of the neural network to the desired reliability. Finally, we obtain simulation results.

  6. Reliability analysis - systematic approach based on limited data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourne, A.J.

    1975-11-01

    The initial approaches required for reliability analysis are outlined. These approaches highlight the system boundaries, examine the conditions under which the system is required to operate, and define the overall performance requirements. The discussion is illustrated by a simple example of an automatic protective system for a nuclear reactor. It is then shown how the initial approach leads to a method of defining the system, establishing performance parameters of interest and determining the general form of reliability models to be used. The overall system model and the availability of reliability data at the system level are next examined. An iterative process is then described whereby the reliability model and data requirements are systematically refined at progressively lower hierarchic levels of the system. At each stage, the approach is illustrated with examples from the protective system previously described. The main advantages of the approach put forward are the systematic process of analysis, the concentration of assessment effort in the critical areas and the maximum use of limited reliability data. (author)

  7. On Improving Reliability of SRAM-Based Physically Unclonable Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arunkumar Vijayakumar

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Physically unclonable functions (PUFs have been touted for their inherent resistance to invasive attacks and low cost in providing a hardware root of trust for various security applications. SRAM PUFs in particular are popular in industry for key/ID generation. Due to intrinsic process variations, SRAM cells, ideally, tend to have the same start-up behavior. SRAM PUFs exploit this start-up behavior. Unfortunately, not all SRAM cells exhibit reliable start-up behavior due to noise susceptibility. Hence, design enhancements are needed for improving reliability. Some of the proposed enhancements in literature include fuzzy extraction, error-correcting codes and voting mechanisms. All enhancements involve a trade-off between area/power/performance overhead and PUF reliability. This paper presents a design enhancement technique for reliability that improves upon previous solutions. We present simulation results to quantify improvement in SRAM PUF reliability and efficiency. The proposed technique is shown to generate a 128-bit key in ≤0.2 μ s at an area estimate of 4538 μ m 2 with error rate as low as 10 − 6 for intrinsic error probability of 15%.

  8. Reliability-based condition assessment of steel containment and liners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, B.; Bhattacharya, B.; Zheng, R.

    1996-11-01

    Steel containments and liners in nuclear power plants may be exposed to aggressive environments that may cause their strength and stiffness to decrease during the plant service life. Among the factors recognized as having the potential to cause structural deterioration are uniform, pitting or crevice corrosion; fatigue, including crack initiation and propagation to fracture; elevated temperature; and irradiation. The evaluation of steel containments and liners for continued service must provide assurance that they are able to withstand future extreme loads during the service period with a level of reliability that is sufficient for public safety. Rational methodologies to provide such assurances can be developed using modern structural reliability analysis principles that take uncertainties in loading, strength, and degradation resulting from environmental factors into account. The research described in this report is in support of the Steel Containments and Liners Program being conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The research demonstrates the feasibility of using reliability analysis as a tool for performing condition assessments and service life predictions of steel containments and liners. Mathematical models that describe time-dependent changes in steel due to aggressive environmental factors are identified, and statistical data supporting the use of these models in time-dependent reliability analysis are summarized. The analysis of steel containment fragility is described, and simple illustrations of the impact on reliability of structural degradation are provided. The role of nondestructive evaluation in time-dependent reliability analysis, both in terms of defect detection and sizing, is examined. A Markov model provides a tool for accounting for time-dependent changes in damage condition of a structural component or system. 151 refs

  9. Design for reliability information and computer-based systems

    CERN Document Server

    Bauer, Eric

    2010-01-01

    "System reliability, availability and robustness are often not well understood by system architects, engineers and developers. They often don't understand what drives customer's availability expectations, how to frame verifiable availability/robustness requirements, how to manage and budget availability/robustness, how to methodically architect and design systems that meet robustness requirements, and so on. The book takes a very pragmatic approach of framing reliability and robustness as a functional aspect of a system so that architects, designers, developers and testers can address it as a concrete, functional attribute of a system, rather than an abstract, non-functional notion"--Provided by publisher.

  10. Stochastic Finite Elements in Reliability-Based Structural Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Engelund, S.

    1995-01-01

    Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect to optimi......Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect...... to optimization variables can be performed. A computer implementation is described and an illustrative example is given....

  11. Position Mooring Control Based on a Structural Reliability Criterion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fang, Shaoji; Leira, Bernt J.; Blanke, Mogens

    2013-01-01

    is achieved using structural reliability indices in a cost function, where both the mean mooring-line tension and dynamic effects are considered. An optimal set-point is automatically produced without need for manual interaction. The parameters of the extreme value distribution are calculated on-line thereby...... mooring lines simultaneously from exceeding a stress threshold, this paper suggests a new algorithm to determine the reference position and an associated control system. The safety of each line is assessed through a structural reliability index. A reference position where all mooring lines are safe...

  12. Stochastic Finite Elements in Reliability-Based Structural Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Engelund, S.

    Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect to optimi......Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect...

  13. Update Knowledge Base for Long-term Core Cooling Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrell, Maria; Sandervag, Oddbjoern; Amri, Abdallah; ); Bang, Young S.; Blomart, Philippe; Broecker, Annette; Pointner, Winfried; Ganzmann, Ingo; Lenogue, Bruno; Guzonas, David; Herer, Christophe; Mattei, Jean-Marie; Tricottet, Matthieu; Masaoka, Hideaki; Soltesz, Vojtech; Tarkiainen, Seppo; Ui, Atsushi; Villalba, Cristina; Zigler, Gilbert

    2013-11-01

    This revision of the Knowledge Base for Emergency Core Cooling System Recirculation Reliability (NEA/CSNI/R (95)11) describes the current status (late 2012) of the knowledge base on emergency core cooling system (ECCS) and containment spray system (CSS) suction strainer performance and long-term cooling in operating power reactors. New reactors, such as the AP1000, EPR and APR1400 that are under construction in some Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries, are not addressed in detail in this revision. The containment sump (also known as the emergency or recirculation sump in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) or the suppression pools or wet wells in boiling water reactors (BWRs)) and associated ECCS strainers are parts of the ECCS in both reactor types. All nuclear power plants (NPPs) are required to have an ECCS that is capable of mitigating a design basis accident (DBA). The containment sump collects reactor coolant, ECCS injection water, and containment spray solutions, if applicable, after a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). The sump serves as the water source to support long-term recirculation for residual heat removal, emergency core cooling, and containment atmosphere clean-up. This water source, the related pump suction inlets, and the piping between the source and inlets are important safety-related components. In addition, if fibrous material is deposited at the fuel element spacers, core cooling can be endangered. The performance of ECCS/CSS strainers was recognized many years ago as an important regulatory and safety issue. One of the primary concerns is the potential for debris generated by a jet of high-pressure coolant during a LOCA to clog the strainer and obstruct core cooling. The issue was considered resolved for all reactor types in the mid-1990s and the OECD/NEA/CSNI published report NEA/CSNI/R(95)11 in 1996 to document the state of knowledge of ECCS performance

  14. Reliability-Based Shape Optimization using Stochastic Finite Element Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, Ib; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sigurdsson, G.

    1991-01-01

    stochastic fields (e.g. loads and material parameters such as Young's modulus and the Poisson ratio). In this case stochastic finite element techniques combined with FORM analysis can be used to obtain measures of the reliability of the structural systems, see Der Kiureghian & Ke (6) and Liu & Der Kiureghian...

  15. Re-assessing reliability based on survived loads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweckendiek, T.

    2011-01-01

    The reliability of flood defenses is often dictated by large uncertainties in the hydraulic loading and the structural resistance. Additional information decreases uncertainty, however, acquiring it is often costly. One source of information, even though in many cases readily available, is hardly

  16. Architecture-Based Reliability Analysis of Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Cobra Mariam

    2012-01-01

    In a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), the hierarchical complexity of Web Services (WS) and their interactions with the underlying Application Server (AS) create new challenges in providing a realistic estimate of WS performance and reliability. The current approaches often treat the entire WS environment as a black-box. Thus, the sensitivity…

  17. Reliability and Validity of Curriculum-Based Informal Reading Inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn; And Others

    A study was conducted to explore the reliability and validity of three prominent procedures used in informal reading inventories (IRIs): (1) choosing a 95% word recognition accuracy standard for determining student instructional level, (2) arbitrarily selecting a passage to represent the difficulty level of a basal reader, and (3) employing…

  18. Reliability-based sensitivity of mechanical components with arbitrary distribution parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yi Min; Yang, Zhou; Wen, Bang Chun; He, Xiang Dong; Liu, Qiaoling

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability-based sensitivity method for mechanical components with arbitrary distribution parameters. Techniques from the perturbation method, the Edgeworth series, the reliability-based design theory, and the sensitivity analysis approach were employed directly to calculate the reliability-based sensitivity of mechanical components on the condition that the first four moments of the original random variables are known. The reliability-based sensitivity information of the mechanical components can be accurately and quickly obtained using a practical computer program. The effects of the design parameters on the reliability of mechanical components were studied. The method presented in this paper provides the theoretic basis for the reliability-based design of mechanical components

  19. Reliability Estimation with Uncertainties Consideration for High Power IGBTs in 2.3 MW Wind Turbine Converter System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Ma, Ke

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the lifetime of high power IGBTs (insulated gate bipolar transistors) used in large wind turbine applications. Since the IGBTs are critical components in a wind turbine power converter, it is of great importance to assess their reliability in the design phase of the turbine....... Minimum, maximum and average junction temperatures profiles for the grid side IGBTs are estimated at each wind speed input values. The selected failure mechanism is the crack propagation in solder joint under the silicon die. Based on junction temperature profiles and physics of failure model......, the probabilistic and determinist damage models are presented with estimated fatigue lives. Reliably levels were assessed by means of First Order Reliability Method taking into account uncertainties....

  20. Reliability-based design of a retaining wall

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, John Sang

    1995-01-01

    A retaining wall is subject to various limit states such as sliding, overturning and bearing capacity, and it can fail by anyone of them. Since a great deal of uncertainty is involved in the analysis of the limit states~ the use of detenninistic conventional safety factors may produce a misleading result. The main objective of this study is to develop a procedure for the optimum design of a retaining wall by using the reliability theory. Typical gravity retaining walls with fou...

  1. STUDIES ON IGBT MODULE TO IMPROVE THE RELIABILITY OF POWER ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choi, Uimin

    component level to converter level. It is divided into two main parts: the first part, which consists of Chapters 2 and 3, is reliability studies of the IGBT module regarding thermal stresses and the second part, composed of Chapters 4 and 5, discusses strategies to improve the reliability and availability...... are presented. Then, in Chapter 3, the effect of junction temperature swing duration t△Tj on the lifetime of the transfer molded Intelligent Power IGBT Module is investigated and modeled based on the power cycling test results. In addition, the physics-of-failure analysis results of the tested modules...... are presented. Finally, in Chapters 4 and 5, open-circuit fault detection and fault-tolerant control methods are proposed for two kinds of neutral-point clamped three-level inverters T-type and NPC inverters. One of main contributions in this project is the development of an apparatus and methodology...

  2. Limitations in simulator time-based human reliability analysis methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wreathall, J.

    1989-01-01

    Developments in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have evolved slowly. Current methods are little changed from those of almost a decade ago, particularly in the use of time-reliability relationships. While these methods were suitable as an interim step, the time (and the need) has come to specify the next evolution of HRA methods. As with any performance-oriented data source, power plant simulator data have no direct connection to HRA models. Errors reported in data are normal deficiencies observed in human performance; failures are events modeled in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Not all errors cause failures; not all failures are caused by errors. Second, the times at which actions are taken provide no measure of the likelihood of failures to act correctly within an accident scenario. Inferences can be made about human reliability, but they must be made with great care. Specific limitations are discussed. Simulator performance data are useful in providing qualitative evidence of the variety of error types and their potential influences on operating systems. More work is required to combine recent developments in the psychology of error with the qualitative data collected at stimulators. Until data become openly available, however, such an advance will not be practical

  3. Design of Korean nuclear reliability data-base network using a two-stage Bayesian concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Jeong, K.S.; Chae, S.K.

    1987-01-01

    In an analysis of probabilistic risk, safety, and reliability of a nuclear power plant, the reliability data base (DB) must be established first. As the importance of the reliability data base increases, event reporting systems such as the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Licensee Event Report and the International Atomic Energy Agency's Incident Reporting System have been developed. In Korea, however, the systematic reliability data base is not yet available. Therefore, foreign data bases have been directly quoted in reliability analyses of Korean plants. In order to develop a reliability data base for Korean plants, the problem is which methodology is to be used, and the application limits of the selected method must be solved and clarified. After starting the commercial operation of Korea Nuclear Unit-1 (KNU-1) in 1978, six nuclear power plants have begun operation. Of these, only KNU-3 is a Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized heavy-water reactor, and the others are all pressurized water reactors. This paper describes the proposed reliability data-base network (KNRDS) for Korean nuclear power plants in the context of two-stage Bayesian (TSB) procedure of Kaplan. It describes the concept of TSB to obtain the Korean-specific plant reliability data base, which is updated with the incorporation of both the reported generic reliability data and the operation experiences of similar plants

  4. Monte Carlo simulation based reliability evaluation in a multi-bilateral contracts market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, L.; Viswanath, P.A.; Wang, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique to evaluate customer load point reliability in multi-bilateral contracts market. The effects of bilateral transactions, reserve agreements, and the priority commitments of generating companies on customer load point reliability have been investigated. A generating company with bilateral contracts is modelled as an equivalent time varying multi-state generation (ETMG). A procedure to determine load point reliability based on ETMG has been developed. The developed procedure is applied to a reliability test system to illustrate the technique. Representing each bilateral contract by an ETMG provides flexibility in determining the reliability at various customer load points. (authors)

  5. Design of Accelerated Reliability Test for CNC Motorized Spindle Based on Vibration Signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Chao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Motorized spindle is the key functional component of CNC machining centers which is a mechatronics system with long life and high reliability. The reliability test cycle of motorized spindle is too long and infeasible. This paper proposes a new accelerated test for reliability evaluation of motorized spindle. By field reliability test, authors collect and calculate the load data including rotational speed, cutting force and torque. Load spectrum distribution law is analyzed. And authors design a test platform to apply the load spectrum. A new method to define the fuzzy acceleration factor based on the vibration signal is proposed. Then the whole test plan of accelerated reliability test is done.

  6. Application of Metric-based Software Reliability Analysis to Example Software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Smidts, Carol

    2008-07-01

    The software reliability of TELLERFAST ATM software is analyzed by using two metric-based software reliability analysis methods, a state transition diagram-based method and a test coverage-based method. The procedures for the software reliability analysis by using the two methods and the analysis results are provided in this report. It is found that the two methods have a relation of complementary cooperation, and therefore further researches on combining the two methods to reflect the benefit of the complementary cooperative effect to the software reliability analysis are recommended

  7. Design for Reliability in Renewable Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Frede; Zhou, Dao; Sangwongwanich, Ariya

    2017-01-01

    Power electronics are widely used in renewable energy systems to achieve lower cost of energy, higher efficiency and high power density. At the same time, the high reliability of the power electronics products is demanded, in order to reduce the failure rates and ensure cost-effective operation...... of the renewable energy systems. This paper thus describes the basic concepts used in reliability engineering, and presents the status and future trends of Design for Reliability (DfR) in power electronics, which is currently undergoing a paradigm shift to a physics-of-failure approach. Two case studies of a 2 MW...

  8. Reliability assessment based on small samples of normal distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Zhibo; Zhu Jianshi; Xu Naixin

    2003-01-01

    When the pertinent parameter involved in reliability definition complies with normal distribution, the conjugate prior of its distributing parameters (μ, h) is of normal-gamma distribution. With the help of maximum entropy and the moments-equivalence principles, the subjective information of the parameter and the sampling data of its independent variables are transformed to a Bayesian prior of (μ,h). The desired estimates are obtained from either the prior or the posterior which is formed by combining the prior and sampling data. Computing methods are described and examples are presented to give demonstrations

  9. Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Model Study Based On Reliability Limitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou Qian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective maintenance is crucial for equipment performance in industry. Imperfect maintenance conform to actual failure process. Taking the dynamic preventive maintenance cost into account, the preventive maintenance model was constructed by using age reduction factor. The model regards the minimization of repair cost rate as final target. It use allowed smallest reliability as the replacement condition. Equipment life was assumed to follow two parameters Weibull distribution since it was one of the most commonly adopted distributions to fit cumulative failure problems. Eventually the example verifies the rationality and benefits of the model.

  10. A heuristic-based approach for reliability importance assessment of energy producers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhavein, A.; Fotuhi Firuzabad, M.

    2011-01-01

    Reliability of energy supply is one of the most important issues of service quality. On one hand, customers usually have different expectations for service reliability and price. On the other hand, providing different level of reliability at load points is a challenge for system operators. In order to take reasonable decisions and obviate reliability implementation difficulties, market players need to know impacts of their assets on system and load-point reliabilities. One tool to specify reliability impacts of assets is the criticality or reliability importance measure by which system components can be ranked based on their effect on reliability. Conventional methods for determination of reliability importance are essentially on the basis of risk sensitivity analysis and hence, impose prohibitive calculation burden in large power systems. An approach is proposed in this paper to determine reliability importance of energy producers from perspective of consumers or distribution companies in a composite generation and transmission system. In the presented method, while avoiding immense computational burden, the energy producers are ranked based on their rating, unavailability and impact on power flows in the lines connecting to the considered load points. Study results on the IEEE reliability test system show successful application of the proposed method. - Research highlights: → Required reliability level at load points is a concern in modern power systems. → It is important to assess reliability importance of energy producers or generators. → Generators can be ranked based on their impacts on power flow to a selected area. → Ranking of generators is an efficient tool to assess their reliability importance.

  11. Study on evaluation of construction reliability for engineering project based on fuzzy language operator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yu-Fang; Ma, Yi-Yi; Song, Ping-Ping

    2018-03-01

    System Reliability Theory is a research hotspot of management science and system engineering in recent years, and construction reliability is useful for quantitative evaluation of project management level. According to reliability theory and target system of engineering project management, the defination of construction reliability appears. Based on fuzzy mathematics theory and language operator, value space of construction reliability is divided into seven fuzzy subsets and correspondingly, seven membership function and fuzzy evaluation intervals are got with the operation of language operator, which provides the basis of corresponding method and parameter for the evaluation of construction reliability. This method is proved to be scientific and reasonable for construction condition and an useful attempt for theory and method research of engineering project system reliability.

  12. Reliability research to nuclear power plant operators based on several methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang Xiang; Li Fu; Zhao Bingquan

    2009-01-01

    The paper utilizes many kinds of international reliability research methods, and summarizes the review of reliability research of Chinese nuclear power plant operators in past over ten years based on the simulator platform of nuclear power plant. The paper shows the necessity and feasibility of the research to nuclear power plant operators from many angles including human cognition reliability, fuzzy mathematics model and psychological research model, etc. It will be good to the safe operation of nuclear power plant based on many kinds of research methods to the reliability research of nuclear power plant operators. (authors)

  13. Reliability-Based Design of Wind Turbine Foundations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Firouzianbandpey, Sarah

    reliable, affordable, clean and renewable energy. Wind turbines have gained popularity among other renewable energy generators by having both technically and economically efficient features and by offering competitive production prices compared to other renewable energy sources. Therefore, it is a key...... shorter spatial correlation lengths in the vertical direction as a result of the depositional process. The normalized cone resistance is a better estimator of spatial trends compared to the normalized friction ratio. In geotechnical engineering analysis and design, practitioners ideally would like to know...... the soil properties at many locations, but achieving this goal can be unrealistic and expensive. Therefore, developing ways to determine these parameters using statistical approaches is of great interest. This research employs a random field model to deal with uncertainty in soil properties due to spatial...

  14. Reliability updating based on monitoring of structural response parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leira, B.J.

    2016-01-01

    Short- and long-term aspects of measuring structural response parameters are addressed. Two specific examples of such measurements are considered for the purpose of illustration and in order to focus the discussion. These examples are taken from the petroleum industry (monitoring of riser response) and from the shipping industry (monitoring of ice-induced strains in a ship hull). Similarities and differences between the two cases are elaborated with respect to which are the most relevant mechanical limit states. Furthermore, main concerns related to reliability levels within a short-term versus long-term time horizon are highlighted. Quantifying the economic benefits of applying monitoring systems is also addressed. - Highlights: • Two examples of structural response monitoring are described. • Application of measurements is discussed in relation to updating of load and structural parameters. • Quantification of the value of response monitoring is made for both of the examples.

  15. A New Method of Reliability Evaluation Based on Wavelet Information Entropy for Equipment Condition Identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Z J; Zhang, X L; Chen, X F

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at reliability evaluation of condition identification of mechanical equipment, it is necessary to analyze condition monitoring information. A new method of reliability evaluation based on wavelet information entropy extracted from vibration signals of mechanical equipment is proposed. The method is quite different from traditional reliability evaluation models that are dependent on probability statistics analysis of large number sample data. The vibration signals of mechanical equipment were analyzed by means of second generation wavelet package (SGWP). We take relative energy in each frequency band of decomposed signal that equals a percentage of the whole signal energy as probability. Normalized information entropy (IE) is obtained based on the relative energy to describe uncertainty of a system instead of probability. The reliability degree is transformed by the normalized wavelet information entropy. A successful application has been achieved to evaluate the assembled quality reliability for a kind of dismountable disk-drum aero-engine. The reliability degree indicates the assembled quality satisfactorily.

  16. An Energy-Based Limit State Function for Estimation of Structural Reliability in Shock Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Guthrie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available limit state function is developed for the estimation of structural reliability in shock environments. This limit state function uses peak modal strain energies to characterize environmental severity and modal strain energies at failure to characterize the structural capacity. The Hasofer-Lind reliability index is briefly reviewed and its computation for the energy-based limit state function is discussed. Applications to two degree of freedom mass-spring systems and to a simple finite element model are considered. For these examples, computation of the reliability index requires little effort beyond a modal analysis, but still accounts for relevant uncertainties in both the structure and environment. For both examples, the reliability index is observed to agree well with the results of Monte Carlo analysis. In situations where fast, qualitative comparison of several candidate designs is required, the reliability index based on the proposed limit state function provides an attractive metric which can be used to compare and control reliability.

  17. An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Methodology for Component-Based Software Reliability Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Grigore, Albeanu; Popenţiuvlǎdicescu, Florin

    2012-01-01

    Component-based software development is the current methodology facilitating agility in project management, software reuse in design and implementation, promoting quality and productivity, and increasing the reliability and performability. This paper illustrates the usage of intuitionistic fuzzy...... degree approach in modelling the quality of entities in imprecise software reliability computing in order to optimize management results. Intuitionistic fuzzy optimization algorithms are proposed to be used for complex software systems reliability optimization under various constraints....

  18. Sensitivity based reduced approaches for structural reliability analysis

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    captured by a safety-factor based approach due to the intricate nonlinear ... give the accounts of extensive research works which have been done over ... (ii) simulation based methods, for example, importance sampling (Bucher 1988; Mahade-.

  19. A damage mechanics based approach to structural deterioration and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhattcharya, B.; Ellingwood, B. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1998-02-01

    Structural deterioration often occurs without perceptible manifestation. Continuum damage mechanics defines structural damage in terms of the material microstructure, and relates the damage variable to the macroscopic strength or stiffness of the structure. This enables one to predict the state of damage prior to the initiation of a macroscopic flaw, and allows one to estimate residual strength/service life of an existing structure. The accumulation of damage is a dissipative process that is governed by the laws of thermodynamics. Partial differential equations for damage growth in terms of the Helmholtz free energy are derived from fundamental thermodynamical conditions. Closed-form solutions to the equations are obtained under uniaxial loading for ductile deformation damage as a function of plastic strain, for creep damage as a function of time, and for fatigue damage as function of number of cycles. The proposed damage growth model is extended into the stochastic domain by considering fluctuations in the free energy, and closed-form solutions of the resulting stochastic differential equation are obtained in each of the three cases mentioned above. A reliability analysis of a ring-stiffened cylindrical steel shell subjected to corrosion, accidental pressure, and temperature is performed.

  20. A damage mechanics based approach to structural deterioration and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattcharya, B.; Ellingwood, B.

    1998-02-01

    Structural deterioration often occurs without perceptible manifestation. Continuum damage mechanics defines structural damage in terms of the material microstructure, and relates the damage variable to the macroscopic strength or stiffness of the structure. This enables one to predict the state of damage prior to the initiation of a macroscopic flaw, and allows one to estimate residual strength/service life of an existing structure. The accumulation of damage is a dissipative process that is governed by the laws of thermodynamics. Partial differential equations for damage growth in terms of the Helmholtz free energy are derived from fundamental thermodynamical conditions. Closed-form solutions to the equations are obtained under uniaxial loading for ductile deformation damage as a function of plastic strain, for creep damage as a function of time, and for fatigue damage as function of number of cycles. The proposed damage growth model is extended into the stochastic domain by considering fluctuations in the free energy, and closed-form solutions of the resulting stochastic differential equation are obtained in each of the three cases mentioned above. A reliability analysis of a ring-stiffened cylindrical steel shell subjected to corrosion, accidental pressure, and temperature is performed

  1. Research on Control Method Based on Real-Time Operational Reliability Evaluation for Space Manipulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yifan Wang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A control method based on real-time operational reliability evaluation for space manipulator is presented for improving the success rate of a manipulator during the execution of a task. In this paper, a method for quantitative analysis of operational reliability is given when manipulator is executing a specified task; then a control model which could control the quantitative operational reliability is built. First, the control process is described by using a state space equation. Second, process parameters are estimated in real time using Bayesian method. Third, the expression of the system's real-time operational reliability is deduced based on the state space equation and process parameters which are estimated using Bayesian method. Finally, a control variable regulation strategy which considers the cost of control is given based on the Theory of Statistical Process Control. It is shown via simulations that this method effectively improves the operational reliability of space manipulator control system.

  2. Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuyong Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic reliability index and to narrow the range of the nonprobabilistic reliability index. If the range of the reliability index reduces to an acceptable accuracy, the solution will be considered convergent, and the nonprobabilistic reliability index will be obtained. The case study indicates that using the proposed method can avoid oscillating iteration process, make iteration process stable and convergent, reduce iteration steps significantly, and improve computational efficiency and precision significantly compared with the traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method. Finally, the nonprobabilistic reliability evaluation process of bridge will be built through evaluating the reliability of one PC continuous rigid frame bridge with three spans using the proposed method, which appears to be more simple and reliable when lack of samples and parameters in the bridge nonprobabilistic reliability evaluation is present.

  3. Practice of value-based distribution reliability assessment (VBDRA) at Scarborough Public Utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, R-L.

    1995-01-01

    The development of value-based distribution reliability assessment (VBDRA) at Scarborough Public Utilities was described. Load point reliability indices, customer interruption costs (CIC), continuity and service reliability, accuracy of CIC, and the aspects of application of VBDRA were addressed. The application of VBDRA to a long-term rebuild plan for 4.16 kV distribution system was described. The importance of a cost-benefit analysis for implementation of VBDRA was emphasized. In the case of the Scarborough Public Utilities Commission the enhanced feeder reliability assessment was found to influence the allocation of funding to where it provided the most value to customers. 14 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs

  4. The Reliability of Randomly Generated Math Curriculum-Based Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strait, Gerald G.; Smith, Bradley H.; Pender, Carolyn; Malone, Patrick S.; Roberts, Jarod; Hall, John D.

    2015-01-01

    "Curriculum-Based Measurement" (CBM) is a direct method of academic assessment used to screen and evaluate students' skills and monitor their responses to academic instruction and intervention. Interventioncentral.org offers a math worksheet generator at no cost that creates randomly generated "math curriculum-based measures"…

  5. Reliability Based Optimal Design of Vertical Breakwaters Modelled as a Series System Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiani, E.; Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1996-01-01

    Reliability based design of monolithic vertical breakwaters is considered. Probabilistic models of important failure modes such as sliding and rupture failure in the rubble mound and the subsoil are described. Characterisation of the relevant stochastic parameters are presented, and relevant design...... variables are identified and an optimal system reliability formulation is presented. An illustrative example is given....

  6. Reliability-based design and planning of inspection and monitoring of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominguez, Sergio Marquez

    When the wind is blowing fiercely, wind turbines must resist. Wind turbines have to withstand the rough environmental conditions in the most reliable manner and start to produce renewable energy when the wind becomes friendly again. Never give up ‘wind turbine’ face the winds and be proud of cont...... of probability and statistics for application in structural reliability-based risk inspections....

  7. Suppression of panel flutter of near-space aircraft based on non-probabilistic reliability theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye-Wei Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The vibration active control of the composite panels with the uncertain parameters in the hypersonic flow is studied using the non-probabilistic reliability theory. Using the piezoelectric patches as active control actuators, dynamic equations of panel are established by finite element method and Hamilton’s principle. And the control model of panel with uncertain parameters is obtained. According to the non-probabilistic reliability index, and besides being based on H∞ robust control theory and non-probabilistic reliability theory, the non-probabilistic reliability performance function is given. Moreover, the relationships between the robust controller and H∞ performance index and reliability are established. Numerical results show that the control method under the influence of reliability, H∞ performance index, and approaching velocity is effective to the vibration suppression of panel in the whole interval of uncertain parameters.

  8. High reliability EPI-base radiation hardened power transistor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, L.E.; Saltich, J.L.

    1978-01-01

    A high-voltage power transistor is described which is able to withstand fluences as high as 3 x 10 14 neutrons per square centimeter and still be able to operate satisfactorily. The collector may be made essentially half as thick and twice as heavily doped as normally and its base is made in two regions which together are essentially four times as thick as the normal power transistor base region. The base region has a heavily doped upper region and a lower region intermediate the upper heavily doped region and the collector. The doping in the intermediate region is as close to intrinsic as possible, in any event less than about 3 x 10 15 impurities per cubic centimeter. The second base region has small width in comparison to the first base region, the ratio of the first to the second being at least about 5 to 1. The base region having the upper heavily doped region and the intermediate or lower low doped region contributes to the higher breakdown voltage which the transistor is able to withstand. The high doping of the collector region essentially lowers that portion of the breakdown voltage achieved by the collector region. Accordingly, it is necessary to transfer certain of this breakdown capability to the base region and this is achieved by using the upper region of heavily doped and an intermediate or lower region of low doping

  9. Human reliability analysis of performing tasks in plants based on fuzzy integral

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washio, Takashi; Kitamura, Yutaka; Takahashi, Hideaki

    1991-01-01

    The effective improvement of the human working conditions in nuclear power plants might be a solution for the enhancement of the operation safety. The human reliability analysis (HRA) gives a methodological basis of the improvement based on the evaluation of human reliability under various working conditions. This study investigates some difficulties of the human reliability analysis using conventional linear models and recent fuzzy integral models, and provides some solutions to the difficulties. The following practical features of the provided methods are confirmed in comparison with the conventional methods: (1) Applicability to various types of tasks (2) Capability of evaluating complicated dependencies among working condition factors (3) A priori human reliability evaluation based on a systematic task analysis of human action processes (4) A conversion scheme to probability from indices representing human reliability. (author)

  10. Improved Reliability-Based Optimization with Support Vector Machines and Its Application in Aircraft Wing Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A new reliability-based design optimization (RBDO method based on support vector machines (SVM and the Most Probable Point (MPP is proposed in this work. SVM is used to create a surrogate model of the limit-state function at the MPP with the gradient information in the reliability analysis. This guarantees that the surrogate model not only passes through the MPP but also is tangent to the limit-state function at the MPP. Then, importance sampling (IS is used to calculate the probability of failure based on the surrogate model. This treatment significantly improves the accuracy of reliability analysis. For RBDO, the Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA is employed as well, which decouples deterministic optimization from the reliability analysis. The improved SVM-based reliability analysis is used to amend the error from linear approximation for limit-state function in SORA. A mathematical example and a simplified aircraft wing design demonstrate that the improved SVM-based reliability analysis is more accurate than FORM and needs less training points than the Monte Carlo simulation and that the proposed optimization strategy is efficient.

  11. Future Trends in Reliability-Based Bridge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    Future bridge management systems will be based on simple stochastic models predicting the residual strength of structural elements. The current deterministic management systems are not effective in optimizing e.g. the life cycle cost of a bridge or a system of bridges. A number of important factors...

  12. A Reliable Homemade Electrode Based on Glassy Polymeric Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Andre L.; Takeuchi, Regina M.; Oliviero, Herilton P.; Rodriguez, Marcello G.; Zimmerman, Robert L.

    2004-01-01

    The production of a GPC-based material by submitting a cross-linked resin precursor to control thermal conditions is discussed. The precursor material is prepolymerized at 60-degree Celsius in a mold and is carbonized in inert atmosphere by slowly raising the temperature, the rise is performed to avoid change in the shape of the carbonization…

  13. On Reliability Based Optimal Design of Concrete Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In recent years important progress has been made in assessment of the lifetime behaviour of concrete bridges. Due to the large uncertainties related to the loading and the deterioration of such bridges, an assessment based on stochastic modelling of the significant parameters seems to be only...

  14. Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. Research project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martorell, S.; Serradell, V.; Munoz, A.; Sanchez, A.

    1997-01-01

    Background, objective, scope, detailed working plan and follow-up and final product of the project ''Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment'' are described

  15. Corrections to "Connectivity-Based Reliable Multicast MAC Protocol for IEEE 802.11 Wireless LANs"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Choi Woo-Yong

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We have found the errors in the throughput formulae presented in our paper "Connectivity-based reliable multicast MAC protocol for IEEE 802.11 wireless LANs". We provide the corrected formulae and numerical results.

  16. Reliability Modeling Development and Its Applications for Ceramic Capacitors with Base-Metal Electrodes (BMEs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Donhang

    2014-01-01

    This presentation includes a summary of NEPP-funded deliverables for the Base-Metal Electrodes (BMEs) capacitor task, development of a general reliability model for BME capacitors, and a summary and future work.

  17. Reliability-based evaluation of bridge components for consistent safety margins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    The Load and Resistant Factor Design (LRFD) approach is based on the concept of structural reliability. The approach is more : rational than the former design approaches such as Load Factor Design or Allowable Stress Design. The LRFD Specification fo...

  18. Review of Reliability-Based Design Optimization Approach and Its Integration with Bayesian Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiangnan

    2018-03-01

    A lot of uncertain factors lie in practical engineering, such as external load environment, material property, geometrical shape, initial condition, boundary condition, etc. Reliability method measures the structural safety condition and determine the optimal design parameter combination based on the probabilistic theory. Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is the most commonly used approach to minimize the structural cost or other performance under uncertainty variables which combines the reliability theory and optimization. However, it cannot handle the various incomplete information. The Bayesian approach is utilized to incorporate this kind of incomplete information in its uncertainty quantification. In this paper, the RBDO approach and its integration with Bayesian method are introduced.

  19. Multi-state reliability for coolant pump based on dependent competitive failure model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shang Yanlong; Cai Qi; Zhao Xinwen; Chen Ling

    2013-01-01

    By taking into account the effect of degradation due to internal vibration and external shocks. and based on service environment and degradation mechanism of nuclear power plant coolant pump, a multi-state reliability model of coolant pump was proposed for the system that involves competitive failure process between shocks and degradation. Using this model, degradation state probability and system reliability were obtained under the consideration of internal vibration and external shocks for the degraded coolant pump. It provided an effective method to reliability analysis for coolant pump in nuclear power plant based on operating environment. The results can provide a decision making basis for design changing and maintenance optimization. (authors)

  20. Reliability analysis of microcomputer boards and computer based systems important to safety of nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrikhande, S.V.; Patil, V.K.; Ganesh, G.; Biswas, B.; Patil, R.K.

    2010-01-01

    Computer Based Systems (CBS) are employed in Indian nuclear plants for protection, control and monitoring purpose. For forthcoming CBS, Reactor Control Division has designed and developed a new standardized family of microcomputer boards qualified to stringent requirements of nuclear industry. These boards form the basic building blocks of CBS. Reliability analysis of these boards is being carried out using analysis package based on MIL-STD-217Plus methodology. The estimated failure rate values of these standardized microcomputer boards will be useful for reliability assessment of these systems. The paper presents reliability analysis of microcomputer boards and case study of a CBS system built using these boards. (author)

  1. Physical-Mechanisms Based Reliability Analysis For Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-05

    irradiation effects on deep level states in Mg-doped p-type GaN grown by ammonia-based molecular beam epitaxy," Appl. Phys. Lett., vol. 106, article...Chan, A. Raman, and M. Turowski, "State and angular dependence of single-event upsets in an asymmetric RC-hardened SRAM using deep trench capacitors...Trinczek, E. W. Blackmore, S. J. Wen , R. Wong, B. Narasimham, J. A. Pellish and H. Puchner, "The contribution of low-energy protons to the total

  2. Performances and reliability of WC based thermal spray coatings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scrivani, A.; Rosso, M.; Salvarani, L.

    2001-01-01

    Thermal spray processes are used for a lot of traditional and innovative applications and their importance is becoming higher and higher. WC/CoCr based thermal spray coatings represent one of the most important class of coatings that find application in a wide range of industrial sectors. This paper will address a review of current applications and characteristics of this kind of coating. The most important spraying processes, namely HVOF (high velocity oxygen fuel) are examined, the characterization of the coatings from the point of view of corrosion and wear resistance is considered. (author)

  3. The effect of Web-based Braden Scale training on the reliability of Braden subscale ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnan, Morris A; Maklebust, JoAnn

    2009-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of Web-based Braden Scale training on the reliability of Braden Scale subscale ratings made by nurses working in acute care hospitals. A secondary purpose was to describe the distribution of reliable Braden subscale ratings before and after Web-based Braden Scale training. Secondary analysis of data from a recently completed quasi-experimental, pretest-posttest, interrater reliability study. A convenience sample of RNs working at 3 Michigan medical centers voluntarily participated in the study. RN participants included nurses who used the Braden Scale regularly at their place of employment ("regular users") as well as nurses who did not use the Braden Scale at their place of employment ("new users"). Using a pretest-posttest, quasi-experimental design, pretest interrater reliability data were collected to identify the percentage of nurses making reliable Braden subscale assessments. Nurses then completed a Web-based Braden Scale training module after which posttest interrater reliability data were collected. The reliability of nurses' Braden subscale ratings was determined by examining the level of agreement/disagreement between ratings made by an RN and an "expert" rating the same patient. In total, 381 RN-to-expert dyads were available for analysis. During both the pretest and posttest periods, the percentage of reliable subscale ratings was highest for the activity subscale, lowest for the moisture subscale, and second lowest for the nutrition subscale. With Web-based Braden Scale training, the percentage of reliable Braden subscale ratings made by new users increased for all 6 subscales with statistically significant improvements in the percentage of reliable assessments made on 3 subscales: sensory-perception, moisture, and mobility. Training had virtually no effect on the percentage of reliable subscale ratings made by regular users of the Braden Scale. With Web-based Braden Scale training the

  4. Automated migration analysis based on cell texture: method & reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chittenden Thomas W

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this paper, we present and validate a way to measure automatically the extent of cell migration based on automated examination of a series of digital photographs. It was designed specifically to identify the impact of Second Hand Smoke (SHS on endothelial cell migration but has broader applications. The analysis has two stages: (1 preprocessing of image texture, and (2 migration analysis. Results The output is a graphic overlay that indicates the front lines of cell migration superimposed on each original image, with automated reporting of the distance traversed vs. time. Expert preference compares to manual placement of leading edge shows complete equivalence of automated vs. manual leading edge definition for cell migration measurement. Conclusion Our method is indistinguishable from careful manual determinations of cell front lines, with the advantages of full automation, objectivity, and speed.

  5. Nuclear Power Plant Operator Reliability Research Based on Fuzzy Math

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Xiang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes use of the concept and theory of fuzzy number in fuzzy mathematics, to research for the response time of operator in accident of Chinese nuclear power plant. Through the quantitative analysis for the performance shape factors (PSFs which influence the response time of operators, the formula of the operator response time is obtained based on the possibilistic fuzzy linear regression model which is used for the first time in this kind of research. The research result shows that the correct research method can be achieved through the analysis of the information from a small sample. This method breaks through the traditional research method and can be used not only for the reference to the safe operation of nuclear power plant, but also in other areas.

  6. Reliability of copper based alloys for electric resistance spot welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovicj, M.; Mihajlovicj, A.; Sherbedzhija, B.

    1977-01-01

    Durability of copper based alloys (B-5 and B-6) for electric resistance spot-welding was examined. The total amount of Be, Ni and Zr was up to 2 and 1 wt.% respectively. Good durability and satisfactory quality of welded spots were obtained in previous laboratory experiments carried out on the fixed spot-welding machine of an industrial type (only B-5 alloy was examined). Electrodes made of both B-5 and B-6 alloy were tested on spot-welding grips and fixed spot-welding machines in Tvornica automobila Sarajevo (TAS). The obtained results suggest that the durability of electrodes made of B-5 and B-6 alloys is more than twice better than of that used in TAS

  7. Reliability Coupled Sensitivity Based Design Approach for Gravity Retaining Walls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guha Ray, A.; Baidya, D. K.

    2012-09-01

    Sensitivity analysis involving different random variables and different potential failure modes of a gravity retaining wall focuses on the fact that high sensitivity of a particular variable on a particular mode of failure does not necessarily imply a remarkable contribution to the overall failure probability. The present paper aims at identifying a probabilistic risk factor ( R f ) for each random variable based on the combined effects of failure probability ( P f ) of each mode of failure of a gravity retaining wall and sensitivity of each of the random variables on these failure modes. P f is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis of each random variable is carried out by F-test analysis. The structure, redesigned by modifying the original random variables with the risk factors, is safe against all the variations of random variables. It is observed that R f for friction angle of backfill soil ( φ 1 ) increases and cohesion of foundation soil ( c 2 ) decreases with an increase of variation of φ 1 , while R f for unit weights ( γ 1 and γ 2 ) for both soil and friction angle of foundation soil ( φ 2 ) remains almost constant for variation of soil properties. The results compared well with some of the existing deterministic and probabilistic methods and found to be cost-effective. It is seen that if variation of φ 1 remains within 5 %, significant reduction in cross-sectional area can be achieved. But if the variation is more than 7-8 %, the structure needs to be modified. Finally design guidelines for different wall dimensions, based on the present approach, are proposed.

  8. Multidisciplinary Inverse Reliability Analysis Based on Collaborative Optimization with Combination of Linear Approximations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Jia Meng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Multidisciplinary reliability is an important part of the reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO. However, it usually has a considerable amount of calculation. The purpose of this paper is to improve the computational efficiency of multidisciplinary inverse reliability analysis. A multidisciplinary inverse reliability analysis method based on collaborative optimization with combination of linear approximations (CLA-CO is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, the multidisciplinary reliability assessment problem is first transformed into a problem of most probable failure point (MPP search of inverse reliability, and then the process of searching for MPP of multidisciplinary inverse reliability is performed based on the framework of CLA-CO. This method improves the MPP searching process through two elements. One is treating the discipline analyses as the equality constraints in the subsystem optimization, and the other is using linear approximations corresponding to subsystem responses as the replacement of the consistency equality constraint in system optimization. With these two elements, the proposed method realizes the parallel analysis of each discipline, and it also has a higher computational efficiency. Additionally, there are no difficulties in applying the proposed method to problems with nonnormal distribution variables. One mathematical test problem and an electronic packaging problem are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  9. Methodology for reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TONG Lili; CAO Xuewu

    2008-01-01

    Reliability allocation is a difficult multi-objective optimization problem.This paper presents a methodology for reliability allocation that can be applied to determine the reliability characteristics of reactor systems or subsystems.The dualistic contrast,known as one of the most powerful tools for optimization problems,is applied to the reliability allocation model of a typical system in this article.And the fault tree analysis,deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis,is also adopted.Thus a failure rate allocation model based on the fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast is achieved.An application on the emergency diesel generator in the nuclear power plant is given to illustrate the proposed method.

  10. Dynamic decision-making for reliability and maintenance analysis of manufacturing systems based on failure effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ding; Zhang, Yingjie

    2017-09-01

    A framework for reliability and maintenance analysis of job shop manufacturing systems is proposed in this paper. An efficient preventive maintenance (PM) policy in terms of failure effects analysis (FEA) is proposed. Subsequently, reliability evaluation and component importance measure based on FEA are performed under the PM policy. A job shop manufacturing system is applied to validate the reliability evaluation and dynamic maintenance policy. Obtained results are compared with existed methods and the effectiveness is validated. Some vague understandings for issues such as network modelling, vulnerabilities identification, the evaluation criteria of repairable systems, as well as PM policy during manufacturing system reliability analysis are elaborated. This framework can help for reliability optimisation and rational maintenance resources allocation of job shop manufacturing systems.

  11. Evaluation of the reliability of transport networks based on the stochastic flow of moving objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Weiwei; Ning, Angelika; Ning Xuanxi

    2008-01-01

    In transport networks, human beings are moving objects whose moving direction is stochastic in emergency situations. Based on this idea, a new model-stochastic moving network (SMN) is proposed. It is different from binary-state networks and stochastic-flow networks. The flow of SMNs has multiple-saturated states, that correspond to different flow values in each arc. In this paper, we try to evaluate the system reliability, defined as the probability that the saturated flow of the network is not less than a given demand d. Based on this new model, we obtain the flow probability distribution of every arc by simulation. An algorithm based on the blocking cutset of the SMN is proposed to evaluate the network reliability. An example is used to show how to calculate the corresponding reliabilities for different given demands of the SMN. Simulation experiments of different size were made and the system reliability precision was calculated. The precision of simulation results also discussed

  12. Reliable Location-Based Services from Radio Navigation Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Enge

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Loran is a radio-based navigation system originally designed for naval applications. We show that Loran-C’s high-power and high repeatable accuracy are fantastic for security applications. First, we show how to derive a precise location tag—with a sensitivity of about 20 meters—that is difficult to project to an exact location. A device can use our location tag to block or allow certain actions, without knowing its precise location. To ensure that our tag is reproducible we make use of fuzzy extractors, a mechanism originally designed for biometric authentication. We build a fuzzy extractor specifically designed for radio-type errors and give experimental evidence to show its effectiveness. Second, we show that our location tag is difficult to predict from a distance. For example, an observer cannot predict the location tag inside a guarded data center from a few hundreds of meters away. As an application, consider a location-aware disk drive that will only work inside the data center. An attacker who steals the device and is capable of spoofing Loran-C signals, still cannot make the device work since he does not know what location tag to spoof. We provide experimental data supporting our unpredictability claim.

  13. An integrated approach to estimate storage reliability with initial failures based on E-Bayesian estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yongjin; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Shitao; Wang, Jiamei; Zhang, Yanjun

    2017-01-01

    Storage reliability that measures the ability of products in a dormant state to keep their required functions is studied in this paper. For certain types of products, Storage reliability may not always be 100% at the beginning of storage, unlike the operational reliability, which exist possible initial failures that are normally neglected in the models of storage reliability. In this paper, a new integrated technique, the non-parametric measure based on the E-Bayesian estimates of current failure probabilities is combined with the parametric measure based on the exponential reliability function, is proposed to estimate and predict the storage reliability of products with possible initial failures, where the non-parametric method is used to estimate the number of failed products and the reliability at each testing time, and the parameter method is used to estimate the initial reliability and the failure rate of storage product. The proposed method has taken into consideration that, the reliability test data of storage products containing the unexamined before and during the storage process, is available for providing more accurate estimates of both the initial failure probability and the storage failure probability. When storage reliability prediction that is the main concern in this field should be made, the non-parametric estimates of failure numbers can be used into the parametric models for the failure process in storage. In the case of exponential models, the assessment and prediction method for storage reliability is presented in this paper. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the method. Furthermore, a detailed comparison between the proposed and traditional method, for examining the rationality of assessment and prediction on the storage reliability, is investigated. The results should be useful for planning a storage environment, decision-making concerning the maximum length of storage, and identifying the production quality. - Highlights:

  14. Reliability Based Spare Parts Management Using Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Upadhyay

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Effective and efficient inventory management is the key to the economic sustainability of capital intensive modern industries. Inventory grows exponentially with complexity and size of the equipment fleet. Substantial amount of capital is required for maintaining an inventory and therefore its optimization is beneficial for smooth operation of the project at minimum cost of inventory. The size and hence the cost of the inventory is influenced by a large no of factors. This makes the optimization problem complex. This work presents a model to solve the problem of optimization of spare parts inventory. The novelty of this study lies with the fact that the developed method could tackle not only the artificial test case but also a real-world industrial problem. Various investigators developed several methods and semi-analytical tools for obtaining optimum solutions for this problem. In this study non-traditional optimization tool namely genetic algorithms GA are utilized. Apart from this Coxs regression analysis is also used to incorporate the effect of some environmental factors on the demand of spares. It shows the efficacy of the applicability of non-traditional optimization tool like GA to solve these problems. This research illustrates the proposed model with the analysis of data taken from a fleet of dumper operated in a large surface coal mine. The optimum time schedules so suggested by this GA-based model are found to be cost effective. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted for this industrial problem. Objective function is developed and the factors like the effect of season and production pressure overloading towards financial year-ending is included in the equations. Statistical analysis of the collected operational and performance data were carried out with the help of Easy-Fit Ver-5.5.The analysis gives the shape and scale parameter of theoretical Weibull distribution. The Coxs regression coefficient corresponding to excessive loading

  15. Towards Reliable Evaluation of Anomaly-Based Intrusion Detection Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, Arun

    2012-01-01

    This report describes the results of research into the effects of environment-induced noise on the evaluation process for anomaly detectors in the cyber security domain. This research was conducted during a 10-week summer internship program from the 19th of August, 2012 to the 23rd of August, 2012 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The research performed lies within the larger context of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) Smart Grid cyber security project, a Department of Energy (DoE) funded effort involving the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology and the University of Southern California/ Information Sciences Institute. The results of the present effort constitute an important contribution towards building more rigorous evaluation paradigms for anomaly-based intrusion detectors in complex cyber physical systems such as the Smart Grid. Anomaly detection is a key strategy for cyber intrusion detection and operates by identifying deviations from profiles of nominal behavior and are thus conceptually appealing for detecting "novel" attacks. Evaluating the performance of such a detector requires assessing: (a) how well it captures the model of nominal behavior, and (b) how well it detects attacks (deviations from normality). Current evaluation methods produce results that give insufficient insight into the operation of a detector, inevitably resulting in a significantly poor characterization of a detectors performance. In this work, we first describe a preliminary taxonomy of key evaluation constructs that are necessary for establishing rigor in the evaluation regime of an anomaly detector. We then focus on clarifying the impact of the operational environment on the manifestation of attacks in monitored data. We show how dynamic and evolving environments can introduce high variability into the data stream perturbing detector performance. Prior research has focused on understanding the impact of this

  16. An adaptive neuro fuzzy model for estimating the reliability of component-based software systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirti Tyagi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Although many algorithms and techniques have been developed for estimating the reliability of component-based software systems (CBSSs, much more research is needed. Accurate estimation of the reliability of a CBSS is difficult because it depends on two factors: component reliability and glue code reliability. Moreover, reliability is a real-world phenomenon with many associated real-time problems. Soft computing techniques can help to solve problems whose solutions are uncertain or unpredictable. A number of soft computing approaches for estimating CBSS reliability have been proposed. These techniques learn from the past and capture existing patterns in data. The two basic elements of soft computing are neural networks and fuzzy logic. In this paper, we propose a model for estimating CBSS reliability, known as an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, that is based on these two basic elements of soft computing, and we compare its performance with that of a plain FIS (fuzzy inference system for different data sets.

  17. Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying-Zhi; Liu, Jin-Tong; Shen, Gui-Xiang; Long, Zhe; Sun, Shu-Guang

    2017-07-01

    In order to rectify the problems that the component reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evaluation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influenced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure probability function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following: 1) The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2) The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree of the system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

  18. LIF: A new Kriging based learning function and its application to structural reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Zhili; Wang, Jian; Li, Rui; Tong, Cao

    2017-01-01

    The main task of structural reliability analysis is to estimate failure probability of a studied structure taking randomness of input variables into account. To consider structural behavior practically, numerical models become more and more complicated and time-consuming, which increases the difficulty of reliability analysis. Therefore, sequential strategies of design of experiment (DoE) are raised. In this research, a new learning function, named least improvement function (LIF), is proposed to update DoE of Kriging based reliability analysis method. LIF values how much the accuracy of estimated failure probability will be improved if adding a given point into DoE. It takes both statistical information provided by the Kriging model and the joint probability density function of input variables into account, which is the most important difference from the existing learning functions. Maximum point of LIF is approximately determined with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) simulation. A new reliability analysis method is developed based on the Kriging model, in which LIF, MCMC and Monte Carlo(MC) simulation are employed. Three examples are analyzed. Results show that LIF and the new method proposed in this research are very efficient when dealing with nonlinear performance function, small probability, complicated limit state and engineering problems with high dimension. - Highlights: • Least improvement function (LIF) is proposed for structural reliability analysis. • LIF takes both Kriging based statistical information and joint PDF into account. • A reliability analysis method is constructed based on Kriging, MCS and LIF.

  19. Reliability-based trajectory optimization using nonintrusive polynomial chaos for Mars entry mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuechen; Li, Haiyang

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents the reliability-based sequential optimization (RBSO) method to settle the trajectory optimization problem with parametric uncertainties in entry dynamics for Mars entry mission. First, the deterministic entry trajectory optimization model is reviewed, and then the reliability-based optimization model is formulated. In addition, the modified sequential optimization method, in which the nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method and the most probable point (MPP) searching method are employed, is proposed to solve the reliability-based optimization problem efficiently. The nonintrusive PCE method contributes to the transformation between the stochastic optimization (SO) and the deterministic optimization (DO) and to the approximation of trajectory solution efficiently. The MPP method, which is used for assessing the reliability of constraints satisfaction only up to the necessary level, is employed to further improve the computational efficiency. The cycle including SO, reliability assessment and constraints update is repeated in the RBSO until the reliability requirements of constraints satisfaction are satisfied. Finally, the RBSO is compared with the traditional DO and the traditional sequential optimization based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in a specific Mars entry mission to demonstrate the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed method.

  20. In-plant reliability data base for nuclear power plant components: data collection and methodology report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drago, J.P.; Borkowski, R.J.; Pike, D.H.; Goldberg, F.F.

    1982-07-01

    The development of a component reliability data for use in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments and reliabiilty studies is presented in this report. The sources of the data are the in-plant maintenance work request records from a sample of nuclear power plants. This data base is called the In-Plant Reliability Data (IPRD) system. Features of the IPRD system are compared with other data sources such as the Licensee Event Report system, the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data system, and IEEE Standard 500. Generic descriptions of nuclear power plant systems formulated for IPRD are given

  1. Reliability Evaluation for the Surface to Air Missile Weapon Based on Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Jianjun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The fuzziness and randomness is integrated by using digital characteristics, such as Expected value, Entropy and Hyper entropy. The cloud model adapted to reliability evaluation is put forward based on the concept of the surface to air missile weapon. The cloud scale of the qualitative evaluation is constructed, and the quantitative variable and the qualitative variable in the system reliability evaluation are corresponded. The practical calculation result shows that it is more effective to analyze the reliability of the surface to air missile weapon by this way. The practical calculation result also reflects the model expressed by cloud theory is more consistent with the human thinking style of uncertainty.

  2. Reliability optimization design of the gear modification coefficient based on the meshing stiffness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qianqian; Wang, Hui

    2018-04-01

    Since the time varying meshing stiffness of gear system is the key factor affecting gear vibration, it is important to design the meshing stiffness to reduce vibration. Based on the effect of gear modification coefficient on the meshing stiffness, considering the random parameters, reliability optimization design of the gear modification is researched. The dimension reduction and point estimation method is used to estimate the moment of the limit state function, and the reliability is obtained by the forth moment method. The cooperation of the dynamic amplitude results before and after optimization indicates that the research is useful for the reduction of vibration and noise and the improvement of the reliability.

  3. Connectivity-Based Reliable Multicast MAC Protocol for IEEE 802.11 Wireless LANs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woo-Yong Choi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose the efficient reliable multicast MAC protocol based on the connectivity information among the recipients. Enhancing the BMMM (Batch Mode Multicast MAC protocol, the reliable multicast MAC protocol significantly reduces the RAK (Request for ACK frame transmissions in a reasonable computational time and enhances the MAC performance. By the analytical performance analysis, the throughputs of the BMMM protocol and our proposed MAC protocol are derived. Numerical examples show that our proposed MAC protocol increases the reliable multicast MAC performance for IEEE 802.11 wireless LANs.

  4. Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharouni-Nik, Morteza; Naeimi, Meysam; Ahadi, Sodayf; Alimoradi, Zahra

    2014-06-01

    In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute to stability of the tunnel structure are recognized owing to identify various aspects of reliability and sustainability in the system. The selection of efficient support methods for rock tunneling is a key factor in order to reduce the number of problems during construction and maintain the project cost and time within the limited budget and planned schedule. This paper introduces a smart approach by which decision-makers will be able to find the overall reliability of tunnel support system before selecting the final scheme of the lining system. Due to this research focus, engineering reliability which is a branch of statistics and probability is being appropriately applied to the field and much effort has been made to use it in tunneling while investigating the reliability of the lining support system for the tunnel structure. Therefore, reliability analysis for evaluating the tunnel support performance is the main idea used in this research. Decomposition approaches are used for producing system block diagram and determining the failure probability of the whole system. Effectiveness of the proposed reliability model of tunnel lining together with the recommended approaches is examined using several case studies and the final value of reliability obtained for different designing scenarios. Considering the idea of linear correlation between safety factors and reliability parameters, the values of isolated reliabilities determined for different structural components of tunnel support system. In order to determine individual safety factors, finite element modeling is employed for different structural subsystems and the results of numerical analyses are obtained in

  5. Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Xuyong; Chen, Qian; Bian, Xiaoya; Fan, Jianping

    2017-01-01

    Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic ...

  6. Reliability Assessment of Wind Farm Electrical System Based on a Probability Transfer Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hejun Yang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The electrical system of a wind farm has a significant influence on the wind farm reliability and electrical energy yield. The disconnect switch installed in an electrical system cannot only improve the operating flexibility, but also enhance the reliability for a wind farm. Therefore, this paper develops a probabilistic transfer technique for integrating the electrical topology structure, the isolation operation of disconnect switch, and stochastic failure of electrical equipment into the reliability assessment of wind farm electrical system. Firstly, as the traditional two-state reliability model of electrical equipment cannot consider the isolation operation, so the paper develops a three-state reliability model to replace the two-state model for incorporating the isolation operation. In addition, a proportion apportion technique is presented to evaluate the state probability. Secondly, this paper develops a probabilistic transfer technique based on the thoughts that through transfer the unreliability of electrical system to the energy transmission interruption of wind turbine generators (WTGs. Finally, some novel indices for describing the reliability of wind farm electrical system are designed, and the variance coefficient of the designed indices is used as a convergence criterion to determine the termination of the assessment process. The proposed technique is applied to the reliability assessment of a wind farm with the different topologies. The simulation results show that the proposed techniques are effective in practical applications.

  7. Reliability and consistency of a validated sun exposure questionnaire in a population-based Danish sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Køster, B; Søndergaard, J; Nielsen, J B; Olsen, A; Bentzen, J

    2018-06-01

    An important feature of questionnaire validation is reliability. To be able to measure a given concept by questionnaire validly, the reliability needs to be high. The objectives of this study were to examine reliability of attitude and knowledge and behavioral consistency of sunburn in a developed questionnaire for monitoring and evaluating population sun-related behavior. Sun related behavior, attitude and knowledge was measured weekly by a questionnaire in the summer of 2013 among 664 Danes. Reliability was tested in a test-retest design. Consistency of behavioral information was tested similarly in a questionnaire adapted to measure behavior throughout the summer. The response rates for questionnaire 1, 2 and 3 were high and the drop out was not dependent on demographic characteristic. There was at least 73% agreement between sunburns in the measurement week and the entire summer, and a possible sunburn underestimation in questionnaires summarizing the entire summer. The participants underestimated their outdoor exposure in the evaluation covering the entire summer as compared to the measurement week. The reliability of scales measuring attitude and knowledge was high for majority of scales, while consistency in protection behavior was low. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report reliability for a completely validated questionnaire on sun-related behavior in a national random population based sample. Further, we show that attitude and knowledge questions confirmed their validity with good reliability, while consistency of protection behavior in general and in a week's measurement was low.

  8. Reliability-based design optimization via high order response surface method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Hong Shuang

    2013-01-01

    To reduce the computational effort of reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), the response surface method (RSM) has been widely used to evaluate reliability constraints. We propose an efficient methodology for solving RBDO problems based on an improved high order response surface method (HORSM) that takes advantage of an efficient sampling method, Hermite polynomials and uncertainty contribution concept to construct a high order response surface function with cross terms for reliability analysis. The sampling method generates supporting points from Gauss-Hermite quadrature points, which can be used to approximate response surface function without cross terms, to identify the highest order of each random variable and to determine the significant variables connected with point estimate method. The cross terms between two significant random variables are added to the response surface function to improve the approximation accuracy. Integrating the nested strategy, the improved HORSM is explored in solving RBDO problems. Additionally, a sampling based reliability sensitivity analysis method is employed to reduce the computational effort further when design variables are distributional parameters of input random variables. The proposed methodology is applied on two test problems to validate its accuracy and efficiency. The proposed methodology is more efficient than first order reliability method based RBDO and Monte Carlo simulation based RBDO, and enables the use of RBDO as a practical design tool.

  9. Reliability-Based Design and Planning of Inspection and Monitoring of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marquez-Dominguez, Sergio

    Maintaining and developing a sustainable wind industry is the main motivation of this PhD thesis entitled “Reliability-based design and planning of inspection and monitoring of offshore wind turbines”. In this thesis, statistical methods and probability theory are important mathematical tools used...... and offshore wind turbine foundations with the aim of improving the design, decreasing structural costs and increasing benefits. Recently, wind energy technology has started to adopt risk and reliability based inspection planning (RBI) as a methodology based on Bayesian decision theories together...

  10. Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Using Stochastic Response Surface Method with Sparse Grid Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinghai Zhao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical framework is developed which integrates the reliability concept into topology optimization to solve reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO problems under uncertainty. Two typical methodologies have been presented and implemented, including the performance measure approach (PMA and the sequential optimization and reliability assessment (SORA. To enhance the computational efficiency of reliability analysis, stochastic response surface method (SRSM is applied to approximate the true limit state function with respect to the normalized random variables, combined with the reasonable design of experiments generated by sparse grid design, which was proven to be an effective and special discretization technique. The uncertainties such as material property and external loads are considered on three numerical examples: a cantilever beam, a loaded knee structure, and a heat conduction problem. Monte-Carlo simulations are also performed to verify the accuracy of the failure probabilities computed by the proposed approach. Based on the results, it is demonstrated that application of SRSM with SGD can produce an efficient reliability analysis in RBTO which enables a more reliable design than that obtained by DTO. It is also found that, under identical accuracy, SORA is superior to PMA in view of computational efficiency.

  11. Inter-rater reliability of an observation-based ergonomics assessment checklist for office workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Michelle Jessica; Straker, Leon Melville; Comans, Tracy Anne; Johnston, Venerina

    2016-12-01

    To establish the inter-rater reliability of an observation-based ergonomics assessment checklist for computer workers. A 37-item (38-item if a laptop was part of the workstation) comprehensive observational ergonomics assessment checklist comparable to government guidelines and up to date with empirical evidence was developed. Two trained practitioners assessed full-time office workers performing their usual computer-based work and evaluated the suitability of workstations used. Practitioners assessed each participant consecutively. The order of assessors was randomised, and the second assessor was blinded to the findings of the first. Unadjusted kappa coefficients between the raters were obtained for the overall checklist and subsections that were formed from question-items relevant to specific workstation equipment. Twenty-seven office workers were recruited. The inter-rater reliability between two trained practitioners achieved moderate to good reliability for all except one checklist component. This checklist has mostly moderate to good reliability between two trained practitioners. Practitioner Summary: This reliable ergonomics assessment checklist for computer workers was designed using accessible government guidelines and supplemented with up-to-date evidence. Employers in Queensland (Australia) can fulfil legislative requirements by using this reliable checklist to identify and subsequently address potential risk factors for work-related injury to provide a safe working environment.

  12. Reliability Analysis of Sealing Structure of Electromechanical System Based on Kriging Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F.; Wang, Y. M.; Chen, R. W.; Deng, W. W.; Gao, Y.

    2018-05-01

    The sealing performance of aircraft electromechanical system has a great influence on flight safety, and the reliability of its typical seal structure is analyzed by researcher. In this paper, we regard reciprocating seal structure as a research object to study structural reliability. Having been based on the finite element numerical simulation method, the contact stress between the rubber sealing ring and the cylinder wall is calculated, and the relationship between the contact stress and the pressure of the hydraulic medium is built, and the friction force on different working conditions are compared. Through the co-simulation, the adaptive Kriging model obtained by EFF learning mechanism is used to describe the failure probability of the seal ring, so as to evaluate the reliability of the sealing structure. This article proposes a new idea of numerical evaluation for the reliability analysis of sealing structure, and also provides a theoretical basis for the optimal design of sealing structure.

  13. Reliable Portfolio Selection Problem in Fuzzy Environment: An mλ Measure Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Feng

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a fuzzy portfolio selection problem with guaranteed reliability, in which the fuzzy variables are used to capture the uncertain returns of different securities. To effectively handle the fuzziness in a mathematical way, a new expected value operator and variance of fuzzy variables are defined based on the m λ measure that is a linear combination of the possibility measure and necessity measure to balance the pessimism and optimism in the decision-making process. To formulate the reliable portfolio selection problem, we particularly adopt the expected total return and standard variance of the total return to evaluate the reliability of the investment strategies, producing three risk-guaranteed reliable portfolio selection models. To solve the proposed models, an effective genetic algorithm is designed to generate the approximate optimal solution to the considered problem. Finally, the numerical examples are given to show the performance of the proposed models and algorithm.

  14. Reliability of a consensus-based ultrasound score for tenosynovitis in rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naredo, Esperanza; D'Agostino, Maria Antonietta; Wakefield, Richard J

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To produce consensus-based scoring systems for ultrasound (US) tenosynovitis and to assess the intraobserver and interobserver reliability of these scoring systems in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: We undertook a Delphi process on US-defined tenosynovitis and US scoring system...... recruited. Ten rheumatologists expert in MSUS blindly, independently and consecutively scored for tenosynovitis in B-mode and PD mode three wrist extensor compartments, two finger flexor tendons and two ankle tendons of each patient in two rounds in a blinded fashion. Intraobserver reliability was assessed...... Doppler signal within the synovial sheath. The intraobserver reliability for tenosynovitis scoring on B-mode and PD mode was good (κ value 0.72 for B-mode; κ value 0.78 for PD mode). Interobserver reliability assessment showed good κ values for PD tenosynovitis scoring (first round, 0.64; second round, 0...

  15. A General Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Donhang

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with Ni electrode and BaTiO3 dielectric material for potential space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. A general reliability model for Ni-BaTiO3 MLCC is developed and discussed. The model consists of three parts: a statistical distribution; an acceleration function that describes how a capacitor's reliability life responds to the external stresses, and an empirical function that defines contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size, and capacitor chip size A. Application examples are also discussed based on the proposed reliability model for Ni-BaTiO3 MLCCs.

  16. A Novel OBDD-Based Reliability Evaluation Algorithm for Wireless Sensor Networks on the Multicast Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongshuai Yan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-terminal reliability calculation for wireless sensor networks (WSNs is a #P-hard problem. The reliability calculation of WSNs on the multicast model provides an even worse combinatorial explosion of node states with respect to the calculation of WSNs on the unicast model; many real WSNs require the multicast model to deliver information. This research first provides a formal definition for the WSN on the multicast model. Next, a symbolic OBDD_Multicast algorithm is proposed to evaluate the reliability of WSNs on the multicast model. Furthermore, our research on OBDD_Multicast construction avoids the problem of invalid expansion, which reduces the number of subnetworks by identifying the redundant paths of two adjacent nodes and s-t unconnected paths. Experiments show that the OBDD_Multicast both reduces the complexity of the WSN reliability analysis and has a lower running time than Xing’s OBDD- (ordered binary decision diagram- based algorithm.

  17. Reliability-based inspection planning of 20MW offshore wind turbine jacket

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents the application of a risk and reliability based inspection planning framework (RBI) for the InnWind 20MW reference wind turbine jacket sub-structure. A detailed fracture mechanics based fatigue crack growth model is developed and used as basis to derive optimal inspection plans...

  18. Reliability analysis and risk-based methods for planning of operation & maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    for extreme and fatigue limit states are presented. Operation & Maintenance planning often follows corrective and preventive strategies based on information from condition monitoring and structural health monitoring systems. A reliability- and risk-based approach is presented where a life-cycle approach...

  19. Reliability-based design methods to determine the extreme response distribution of offshore wind turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, P.W.; Bussel, van G.J.W.; Kuik, van G.A.M.; Vugts, J.H.

    2003-01-01

    In this article a reliability-based approach to determine the extreme response distribution of offshore wind turbines is presented. Based on hindcast data, the statistical description of the offshore environment is formulated. The contour lines of different return periods can be determined.

  20. A Bayesian belief nets based quantitative software reliability assessment for PSA: COTS case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Jeong, H. S.; Park, J. H.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, K. Y.; Park, J. K

    2002-03-01

    Current reliability assessments of safety critical software embedded in the digital systems in nuclear power plants are based on the rule-based qualitative assessment methods. Then recently practical needs require the quantitative features of software reliability for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) that is one of important methods being used in assessing the whole safety of nuclear power plant. But conventional quantitative software reliability assessment methods are not enough to get the necessary results in assessing the safety critical software used in nuclear power plants. Thus, current reliability assessment methods for these digital systems exclude the software part or use arbitrary values for the software reliability in the assessment. This reports discusses a Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) based quantification method that models current qualitative software assessment in formal way and produces quantitative results required for PSA. Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) software dedication process that KAERI developed was applied to the discussed BBN based method for evaluating the plausibility of the proposed method in PSA

  1. Exponential Reliability Coefficient based Reputation Mechanism for isolating selfish nodes in MANETs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Sengathir

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In mobile ad hoc networks, cooperation among active mobile nodes is considered to play a vital role in reliable transmission of data. But, the selfish mobile nodes present in an ad hoc environment refuse to forward neighbouring nodes’ packet for conserving its own energy. This intentional selfish behaviour drastically reduces the degree of cooperation maintained between the mobile nodes. Hence, a need arises for devising an effective mechanism which incorporates both energy efficiency and reputation into account for mitigating selfish behaviour in MANETs. In this paper, we propose an Exponential Reliability Coefficient based reputation Mechanism (ERCRM which isolates the selfish nodes from the routing path based on Exponential Reliability Coefficient (ExRC. This reliability coefficient manipulated through exponential failure rate based on moving average method highlights the most recent past behaviour of the mobile nodes for quantifying its genuineness. From the simulation results, it is evident that, the proposed ERCRM approach outperforms the existing Packet Conservation Monitoring Algorithm (PCMA and Spilt Half Reliability Coefficient based Mathematical Model (SHRCM in terms of performance evaluation metrics such as packet delivery ratio, throughput, total overhead and control overhead. Further, this ERCRM mechanism has a successful rate of 28% in isolating the selfish nodes from the routing path. Furthermore, it also aids in framing the exponential threshold point of detection as 0.4, where a maximum number of selfish nodes are identified when compared to the existing models available in the literature.

  2. Investigation on Reliability and Scalability of an FBG-Based Hierarchical AOFSN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Mei Peng

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The reliability and scalability of large-scale based optical fiber sensor networks (AOFSN are considered in this paper. The AOFSN network consists of three-level hierarchical sensor network architectures. The first two levels consist of active interrogation and remote nodes (RNs and the third level, called the sensor subnet (SSN, consists of passive Fiber Bragg Gratings (FBGs and a few switches. The switch architectures in the RN and various SSNs to improve the reliability and scalability of AOFSN are studied. Two SSNs with a regular topology are proposed to support simple routing and scalability in AOFSN: square-based sensor cells (SSC and pentagon-based sensor cells (PSC. The reliability and scalability are evaluated in terms of the available sensing coverage in the case of one or multiple link failures.

  3. Designing the database for a reliability aware Model-Based System Engineering process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cressent, Robin; David, Pierre; Idasiak, Vincent; Kratz, Frederic

    2013-01-01

    This article outlines the need for a reliability database to implement model-based description of components failure modes and dysfunctional behaviors. We detail the requirements such a database should honor and describe our own solution: the Dysfunctional Behavior Database (DBD). Through the description of its meta-model, the benefits of integrating the DBD in the system design process is highlighted. The main advantages depicted are the possibility to manage feedback knowledge at various granularity and semantic levels and to ease drastically the interactions between system engineering activities and reliability studies. The compliance of the DBD with other reliability database such as FIDES is presented and illustrated. - Highlights: ► Model-Based System Engineering is more and more used in the industry. ► It results in a need for a reliability database able to deal with model-based description of dysfunctional behavior. ► The Dysfunctional Behavior Database aims to fulfill that need. ► It helps dealing with feedback management thanks to its structured meta-model. ► The DBD can profit from other reliability database such as FIDES.

  4. Reliability based code calibration of fatigue design criteria of nuclear Class-1 piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, J.; Balasubramaniyan, V.; Chellapandi, P.

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue design of Class-l piping of NPP is carried out using Section-III of American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel code. The fatigue design criteria of ASME are based on the concept of safety factor, which does not provide means for the management of uncertainties for consistently reliable and economical designs. In this regards, a work is taken up to estimate the implicit reliability level associated with fatigue design criteria of Class-l piping specified by ASME Section III, NB-3650. As ASME fatigue curve is not in the form of analytical expression, the reliability level of pipeline fittings and joints is evaluated using the mean fatigue curve developed by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The methodology employed for reliability evaluation is FORM, HORSM and MCS. The limit state function for fatigue damage is found to be sensitive to eight parameters, which are systematically modelled as stochastic variables during reliability estimation. In conclusion a number of important aspects related to reliability of various piping product and joints are discussed. A computational example illustrates the developed procedure for a typical pipeline. (author)

  5. Reliability and consistency of a validated sun exposure questionnaire in a population-based Danish sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Køster

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available An important feature of questionnaire validation is reliability. To be able to measure a given concept by questionnaire validly, the reliability needs to be high.The objectives of this study were to examine reliability of attitude and knowledge and behavioral consistency of sunburn in a developed questionnaire for monitoring and evaluating population sun-related behavior.Sun related behavior, attitude and knowledge was measured weekly by a questionnaire in the summer of 2013 among 664 Danes. Reliability was tested in a test-retest design. Consistency of behavioral information was tested similarly in a questionnaire adapted to measure behavior throughout the summer.The response rates for questionnaire 1, 2 and 3 were high and the drop out was not dependent on demographic characteristic. There was at least 73% agreement between sunburns in the measurement week and the entire summer, and a possible sunburn underestimation in questionnaires summarizing the entire summer. The participants underestimated their outdoor exposure in the evaluation covering the entire summer as compared to the measurement week. The reliability of scales measuring attitude and knowledge was high for majority of scales, while consistency in protection behavior was low.To our knowledge, this is the first study to report reliability for a completely validated questionnaire on sun-related behavior in a national random population based sample. Further, we show that attitude and knowledge questions confirmed their validity with good reliability, while consistency of protection behavior in general and in a week's measurement was low. Keywords: Questionnaire, Validation, Reliability, Skin cancer, Prevention, Ultraviolet radiation

  6. Development of reliability-based load and resistance factor design methods for piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayyub, Bilal M.; Hill, Ralph S. III; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2003-01-01

    Current American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) nuclear codes and standards rely primarily on deterministic and mechanistic approaches to design. The American Institute of Steel Construction and the American Concrete Institute, among other organizations, have incorporated probabilistic methodologies into their design codes. ASME nuclear codes and standards could benefit from developing a probabilistic, reliability-based, design methodology. This paper provides a plan to develop the technical basis for reliability-based, load and resistance factor design of ASME Section III, Class 2/3 piping for primary loading, i.e., pressure, deadweight and seismic. The plan provides a proof of concept in that LRFD can be used in the design of piping, and could achieve consistent reliability levels. Also, the results from future projects in this area could form the basis for code cases, and additional research for piping secondary loads. (author)

  7. An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

    2017-10-01

    This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Design Optimization Method for Composite Components Based on Moment Reliability-Sensitivity Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhigang; Wang, Changxi; Niu, Xuming; Song, Yingdong

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, a Reliability-Sensitivity Based Design Optimization (RSBDO) methodology for the design of the ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) components has been proposed. A practical and efficient method for reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis of complex components with arbitrary distribution parameters are investigated by using the perturbation method, the respond surface method, the Edgeworth series and the sensitivity analysis approach. The RSBDO methodology is then established by incorporating sensitivity calculation model into RBDO methodology. Finally, the proposed RSBDO methodology is applied to the design of the CMCs components. By comparing with Monte Carlo simulation, the numerical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology provides an accurate, convergent and computationally efficient method for reliability-analysis based finite element modeling engineering practice.

  9. Study on reliability analysis based on multilevel flow models and fault tree method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Qiang; Yang Ming

    2014-01-01

    Multilevel flow models (MFM) and fault tree method describe the system knowledge in different forms, so the two methods express an equivalent logic of the system reliability under the same boundary conditions and assumptions. Based on this and combined with the characteristics of MFM, a method mapping MFM to fault tree was put forward, thus providing a way to establish fault tree rapidly and realizing qualitative reliability analysis based on MFM. Taking the safety injection system of pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant as an example, its MFM was established and its reliability was analyzed qualitatively. The analysis result shows that the logic of mapping MFM to fault tree is correct. The MFM is easily understood, created and modified. Compared with the traditional fault tree analysis, the workload is greatly reduced and the modeling time is saved. (authors)

  10. The Seismic Reliability of Offshore Structures Based on Nonlinear Time History Analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini, Mahmood; Karimiyani, Somayyeh; Ghafooripour, Amin; Jabbarzadeh, Mohammad Javad

    2008-01-01

    Regarding the past earthquakes damages to offshore structures, as vital structures in the oil and gas industries, it is important that their seismic design is performed by very high reliability. Accepting the Nonlinear Time History Analyses (NLTHA) as the most reliable seismic analysis method, in this paper an offshore platform of jacket type with the height of 304 feet, having a deck of 96 feet by 94 feet, and weighing 290 million pounds has been studied. At first, some Push-Over Analyses (POA) have been preformed to recognize the more critical members of the jacket, based on the range of their plastic deformations. Then NLTHA have been performed by using the 3-components accelerograms of 100 earthquakes, covering a wide range of frequency content, and normalized to three Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) levels of 0.3 g, 0.65 g, and 1.0 g. By using the results of NLTHA the damage and rupture probabilities of critical member have been studied to assess the reliability of the jacket structure. Regarding that different structural members of the jacket have different effects on the stability of the platform, an ''importance factor'' has been considered for each critical member based on its location and orientation in the structure, and then the reliability of the whole structure has been obtained by combining the reliability of the critical members, each having its specific importance factor

  11. HuRECA: Human Reliability Evaluator for Computer-based Control Room Actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jae Whan; Lee, Seung Jun; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2011-01-01

    As computer-based design features such as computer-based procedures (CBP), soft controls (SCs), and integrated information systems are being adopted in main control rooms (MCR) of nuclear power plants, a human reliability analysis (HRA) method capable of dealing with the effects of these design features on human reliability is needed. From the observations of human factors engineering verification and validation experiments, we have drawn some major important characteristics on operator behaviors and design-related influencing factors (DIFs) from the perspective of human reliability. Firstly, there are new DIFs that should be considered in developing an HRA method for computer-based control rooms including especially CBP and SCs. In the case of the computer-based procedure rather than the paper-based procedure, the structural and managerial elements should be considered as important PSFs in addition to the procedural contents. In the case of the soft controllers, the so-called interface management tasks (or secondary tasks) should be reflected in the assessment of human error probability. Secondly, computer-based control rooms can provide more effective error recovery features than conventional control rooms. Major error recovery features for computer-based control rooms include the automatic logic checking function of the computer-based procedure and the information sharing feature of the general computer-based designs

  12. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safetly, Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

  13. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.

    2008-01-01

    In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

  14. Reliability of pedigree-based and genomic evaluations in selected populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorjanc, G.; Bijma, P.; Hickey, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Reliability is an important parameter in breeding. It measures the precision of estimated breeding values (EBV) and, thus, potential response to selection on those EBV. The precision of EBV is commonly measured by relating the prediction error variance (PEV) of EBV to the base population

  15. Reliability and risk-based planning of operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Florian, Mihai; Berzonskis, Arvydas

    2016-01-01

    costly (and safe), and it is important to include in the reliability assessment the information obtained during operation (from condition monitoring and inspections) and the maintenance performed (incl. repairs and replacements). The paper presents a risk-based approach for optimal planning of Operation...

  16. Assessing the Reliability of Curriculum-Based Measurement: An Application of Latent Growth Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Seungsoo; Kim, Dong-Il; Branum-Martin, Lee; Wayman, Miya Miura; Espin, Christine A.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the use of Latent Growth Modeling (LGM) as a method for estimating reliability of Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM) progress-monitoring data. The LGM approach permits the error associated with each measure to differ at each time point, thus providing an alternative method for examining of the…

  17. Generalizability Theory Reliability of Written Expression Curriculum-Based Measurement in Universal Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller-Margulis, Milena A.; Mercer, Sterett H.; Thomas, Erin L.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of written expression curriculum-based measurement (WE-CBM) in the context of universal screening from a generalizability theory framework. Students in second through fifth grade (n = 145) participated in the study. The sample included 54% female students, 49% White students, 23% African…

  18. On a User-Centric Base Station Cooperation Scheme for Reliable Communications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Dong Min; Thomsen, Henning; Popovski, Petar

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we describe CoMP2flex, a user-centric base station (BS) cooperation scheme that provides improvements in reliability of both uplink (UL) and downlink (DL) communications of wireless cellular networks. CoMP2flex supports not only cooperation of two BSs with same direction of traffic...

  19. Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharouni-Nik, M.; Naeimi, M.; Ahadi, S.; Alimoradi, Z.

    2014-01-01

    In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute

  20. Development of component reliability data for PSA and risk based management in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshihiro Tomioka; Mitsumasa Hirano; Shunsuke Kondo

    1997-01-01

    The author presents the outline of development of the component reliability data for PSA and risk based management in Japan. In the first part following the introduction, the development process is described. The next part describes issues discussed in the course of the development, which are treatment of zero failure data, error factor, estimation of unavailable failure rate and integral test

  1. Development and Reliability of the OMERACT Thumb Base Osteoarthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroon, Féline P B; Conaghan, Philip G; Foltz, Violaine

    2017-01-01

    : The TOMS assessed the first carpometacarpal (CMC-1) and scaphotrapeziotrapezoid (STT) joints for synovitis, subchondral bone defects (including erosions, cysts, and bone attrition), osteophytes, cartilage, and bone marrow lesions on a 0-3 scale (normal to severe). Subluxation was evaluated only in the CMC......, with better performance for subchondral bone defects, subluxation, and bone marrow lesions. CONCLUSION: A thumb base OA MRI scoring system has been developed. The OMERACT TOMS demonstrated good intrareader and interreader reliability. Longitudinal studies are warranted to investigate reliability of change...

  2. Reliability analysis for power supply system in a reprocessing facility based on GO methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Renze

    2014-01-01

    GO methodology was applied to analyze the reliability of power supply system in a typical reprocessing facility. Based on the fact that tie breakers are set in the system, tie breaker operator was defined. Then GO methodology modeling and quantitative analysis were performed sequently, minimal cut sets and average unavailability of the system were obtained. Parallel analysis between GO methodology and fault tree methodology was also performed. The results showed that setup of tie breakers was rational and necessary and that the modeling was much easier and the chart was much more succinct for GO methodology parallel with fault tree methodology to analyze the reliability of the power supply system. (author)

  3. Dissipativity-Based Reliable Control for Fuzzy Markov Jump Systems With Actuator Faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Jie; Lu, Renquan; Shi, Peng; Su, Hongye; Wu, Zheng-Guang

    2017-09-01

    This paper is concerned with the problem of reliable dissipative control for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with Markov jumping parameters. Considering the influence of actuator faults, a sufficient condition is developed to ensure that the resultant closed-loop system is stochastically stable and strictly ( Q, S,R )-dissipative based on a relaxed approach in which mode-dependent and fuzzy-basis-dependent Lyapunov functions are employed. Then a reliable dissipative control for fuzzy Markov jump systems is designed, with sufficient condition proposed for the existence of guaranteed stability and dissipativity controller. The effectiveness and potential of the obtained design method is verified by two simulation examples.

  4. Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.-Y.

    2007-01-01

    This study applies a novel neural-network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecast reliability in engine systems. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in systems reliability prediction by comparing it with the existing neural-network approaches and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. To build an effective SVR model, SVR's parameters must be set carefully. This study proposes a novel approach, known as GA-SVR, which searches for SVR's optimal parameters using real-value genetic algorithms, and then adopts the optimal parameters to construct the SVR models. A real reliability data for 40 suits of turbochargers were employed as the data set. The experimental results demonstrate that SVR outperforms the existing neural-network approaches and the traditional ARIMA models based on the normalized root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error

  5. Reliability-based optimization of an active vibration controller using evolutionary algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraygord Afshari, Sajad; Pourtakdoust, Seid H.

    2017-04-01

    Many modern industrialized systems such as aircrafts, rotating turbines, satellite booms, etc. cannot perform their desired tasks accurately if their uninhibited structural vibrations are not controlled properly. Structural health monitoring and online reliability calculations are emerging new means to handle system imposed uncertainties. As stochastic forcing are unavoidable, in most engineering systems, it is often needed to take them into the account for the control design process. In this research, smart material technology is utilized for structural health monitoring and control in order to keep the system in a reliable performance range. In this regard, a reliability-based cost function is assigned for both controller gain optimization as well as sensor placement. The proposed scheme is implemented and verified for a wing section. Comparison of results for the frequency responses is considered to show potential applicability of the presented technique.

  6. Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

    2018-02-01

    Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

  7. Reliability research based experience with systems and events at the Kozloduy NPP units 1-4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khristova, R; Kaltchev, B; Dimitrov, B [Energoproekt, Sofia (Bulgaria); Nedyalkova, D; Sonev, A [Kombinat Atomna Energetika, Kozloduj (Bulgaria)

    1996-12-31

    An overview of equipment reliability based on operational data of selected safety systems at the Kozloduy NPP is presented. Conclusions are drawn on reliability of the service water system, feed water system, emergency power supply - category 2, emergency high pressure ejection system and spray system. For the units 1-4 all recorded accident protocols in the period 1974-1993 have been processed and the main initiators identified. A list with 39 most frequent initiators of accidents/incidents is compiled. The human-caused errors account for 27% of all events. The reliability characteristics and frequencies have been calculated for all initiating events. It is concluded that there have not been any accidents with consequences for fuel integrity or radioactive release. 14 refs.

  8. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.

    2008-01-01

    The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)

  9. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safety, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)

  10. Reliability-Based Robust Design Optimization of Structures Considering Uncertainty in Design Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shujuan Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the structural design optimization to cover both the reliability and robustness under uncertainty in design variables. The main objective is to improve the efficiency of the optimization process. To address this problem, a hybrid reliability-based robust design optimization (RRDO method is proposed. Prior to the design optimization, the Sobol sensitivity analysis is used for selecting key design variables and providing response variance as well, resulting in significantly reduced computational complexity. The single-loop algorithm is employed to guarantee the structural reliability, allowing fast optimization process. In the case of robust design, the weighting factor balances the response performance and variance with respect to the uncertainty in design variables. The main contribution of this paper is that the proposed method applies the RRDO strategy with the usage of global approximation and the Sobol sensitivity analysis, leading to the reduced computational cost. A structural example is given to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

  11. Reliability research based experience with systems and events at the Kozloduy NPP units 1-4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khristova, R.; Kaltchev, B.; Dimitrov, B.; Nedyalkova, D.; Sonev, A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview of equipment reliability based on operational data of selected safety systems at the Kozloduy NPP is presented. Conclusions are drawn on reliability of the service water system, feed water system, emergency power supply - category 2, emergency high pressure ejection system and spray system. For the units 1-4 all recorded accident protocols in the period 1974-1993 have been processed and the main initiators identified. A list with 39 most frequent initiators of accidents/incidents is compiled. The human-caused errors account for 27% of all events. The reliability characteristics and frequencies have been calculated for all initiating events. It is concluded that there have not been any accidents with consequences for fuel integrity or radioactive release. 14 refs

  12. Safety management of pipelines based on structural reliability: historical perspective and progress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beck, Andre Teofilo; Bazan, Felipe Alexander Vargas [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil); Mendes, Renato [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Donato, Guilherme [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS/CENPES), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas e Desenvolvimento; Gardiner, Michael [GL Noble Denton, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-01

    Since the early beginnings in the sixties and seventies, Structural Reliability theory has reached a mature stage encompassing solid theoretical developments and increasing practical applications. Structural reliability methods have permeated the engineering profession, finding applications in code calibration, structural optimization, life extension of existing structures, life-cycle management of infrastructure risks and costs, and so on. This review paper shows that the ground work for Reliability Based Design and Assessment (RBDA) of onshore pipeline systems is already developed. Hence, this allows the economic management of the risks involved in operation of pipeline systems. It is shown that RBDA is a rational tool to safely manage the operational life of pipeline systems, optimizing initial design and the expenditures in inspection and maintenance operations. (author)

  13. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

  14. Development of web-based reliability data analysis algorithm model and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Seok-Won; Oh, Ji-Yong; Moosung-Jae

    2010-01-01

    For this study, a database model of plant reliability was developed for the effective acquisition and management of plant-specific data that can be used in various applications of plant programs as well as in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). Through the development of a web-based reliability data analysis algorithm, this approach systematically gathers specific plant data such as component failure history, maintenance history, and shift diary. First, for the application of the developed algorithm, this study reestablished the raw data types, data deposition procedures and features of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system process. The component codes and system codes were standardized to make statistical analysis between different types of plants possible. This standardization contributes to the establishment of a flexible database model that allows the customization of reliability data for the various applications depending on component types and systems. In addition, this approach makes it possible for users to perform trend analyses and data comparisons for the significant plant components and systems. The validation of the algorithm is performed through a comparison of the importance measure value (Fussel-Vesely) of the mathematical calculation and that of the algorithm application. The development of a reliability database algorithm is one of the best approaches for providing systemic management of plant-specific reliability data with transparency and continuity. This proposed algorithm reinforces the relationships between raw data and application results so that it can provide a comprehensive database that offers everything from basic plant-related data to final customized data.

  15. Hybrid Structural Reliability Analysis under Multisource Uncertainties Based on Universal Grey Numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingfa Yang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nondeterministic parameters of certain distribution are employed to model structural uncertainties, which are usually assumed as stochastic factors. However, model parameters may not be precisely represented due to some factors in engineering practices, such as lack of sufficient data, data with fuzziness, and unknown-but-bounded conditions. To this end, interval and fuzzy parameters are implemented and an efficient approach to structural reliability analysis with random-interval-fuzzy hybrid parameters is proposed in this study. Fuzzy parameters are first converted to equivalent random ones based on the equal entropy principle. 3σ criterion is then employed to transform the equivalent random and the original random parameters to interval variables. In doing this, the hybrid reliability problem is transformed into the one only with interval variables, in other words, nonprobabilistic reliability analysis problem. Nevertheless, the problem of interval extension existed in interval arithmetic, especially for the nonlinear systems. Therefore, universal grey mathematics, which can tackle the issue of interval extension, is employed to solve the nonprobabilistic reliability analysis problem. The results show that the proposed method can obtain more conservative results of the hybrid structural reliability.

  16. Development of web-based reliability data analysis algorithm model and its application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Seok-Won, E-mail: swhwang@khnp.co.k [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., Jang-Dong 25-1, Yuseong-Gu, 305-343 Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Oh, Ji-Yong [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., Jang-Dong 25-1, Yuseong-Gu, 305-343 Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Moosung-Jae [Department of Nuclear Engineering Hanyang University 17 Haengdang, Sungdong, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-02-15

    For this study, a database model of plant reliability was developed for the effective acquisition and management of plant-specific data that can be used in various applications of plant programs as well as in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). Through the development of a web-based reliability data analysis algorithm, this approach systematically gathers specific plant data such as component failure history, maintenance history, and shift diary. First, for the application of the developed algorithm, this study reestablished the raw data types, data deposition procedures and features of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system process. The component codes and system codes were standardized to make statistical analysis between different types of plants possible. This standardization contributes to the establishment of a flexible database model that allows the customization of reliability data for the various applications depending on component types and systems. In addition, this approach makes it possible for users to perform trend analyses and data comparisons for the significant plant components and systems. The validation of the algorithm is performed through a comparison of the importance measure value (Fussel-Vesely) of the mathematical calculation and that of the algorithm application. The development of a reliability database algorithm is one of the best approaches for providing systemic management of plant-specific reliability data with transparency and continuity. This proposed algorithm reinforces the relationships between raw data and application results so that it can provide a comprehensive database that offers everything from basic plant-related data to final customized data.

  17. Reliability of agriculture universal joint shafts based on temperature measuring in universal joint bearing assemblies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Аleksandar Asonja

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a research into reliability calculations of agriculture double universal joint shafts based on temperature measuring in cardan-type universal joint bearing assemblies. Special laboratory equipment was developed for this research which is presented in the paper. The objective of this research was to test the real life span of universal joint shafts in the laboratory and in field, to obtain the results which can be used to improve the reliability of universal joint shafts. If the presented research were used along with maintenance measures recommended in the paper and with proper use, the level of reliability of the shafts would be 2.1 times higher. The presented results of the research showed that needle bearings, i.e. bearing assemblies of the joints, are the most critical elements on universal joint shafts and are possible causes of their lower reliability. The second universal joint is the part with the lowest reliability in the observed technical system.

  18. A reliability-based preventive maintenance methodology for the projection spot welding machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayzimatov Ulugbek

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available An effective operations of a projection spot welding (PSW machine is closely related to the effec-tiveness of the maintenance. Timely maintenance can prevent failures and improve reliability and maintainability of the machine. Therefore, establishing the maintenance frequency for the welding machine is one of the most important tasks for plant engineers. In this regard, reliability analysis of the welding machine can be used to establish preventive maintenance intervals (PMI and to identify the critical parts of the system. In this reliability and maintainability study, analysis of the PSW machine was carried out. The failure and repair data for analysis were obtained from automobile manufacturing company located in Uzbekistan. The machine was divided into three main sub-systems: electrical, pneumatic and hydraulic. Different distributions functions for all sub-systems was tested and their parameters tabulated. Based on estimated parameters of the analyzed distribu-tions, PMI for the PSW machines sub-systems at different reliability levels was calculated. Finally, preventive measures for enhancing the reliability of the PSW machine sub-systems are suggested.

  19. Reliability assessment of a peer evaluation instrument in a team-based learning course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahawisan J

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the reliability of a peer evaluation instrument in a longitudinal team-based learning setting. Methods: Student pharmacists were instructed to evaluate the contributions of their peers. Evaluations were analyzed for the variance of the scores by identifying low, medium, and high scores. Agreement between performance ratings within each group of students was assessed via intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC. Results: We found little variation in the standard deviation (SD based on the score means among the high, medium, and low scores within each group. The lack of variation in SD of results between groups suggests that the peer evaluation instrument produces precise results. The ICC showed strong concordance among raters. Conclusions: Findings suggest that our student peer evaluation instrument provides a reliable method for peer assessment in team-based learning settings.

  20. Estimating reliability of degraded system based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Ge

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available System degradation was usually caused by multiple-parameter degradation. The assessment result of system reliability by universal generating function was low accurate when compared with the Monte Carlo simulation. And the probability density function of the system output performance cannot be got. So the reliability assessment method based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter was presented for complexly degraded system. Firstly, the system output function was founded according to the transitive relation between component parameters and the system output performance. Then, the probability density evolution equation based on the probability conservation principle and the system output function was established. Furthermore, probability distribution characteristics of the system output performance was obtained by solving differential equation. Finally, the reliability of the degraded system was estimated. This method did not need to discrete the performance parameters and can establish continuous probability density function of the system output performance with high calculation efficiency and low cost. Numerical example shows that this method is applicable to evaluate the reliability of multi-parameter degraded system.

  1. Design for a Crane Metallic Structure Based on Imperialist Competitive Algorithm and Inverse Reliability Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Xiao-Ning; Zhi, Bo

    2017-07-01

    Uncertainties in parameters such as materials, loading, and geometry are inevitable in designing metallic structures for cranes. When considering these uncertainty factors, reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) offers a more reasonable design approach. However, existing RBDO methods for crane metallic structures are prone to low convergence speed and high computational cost. A unilevel RBDO method, combining a discrete imperialist competitive algorithm with an inverse reliability strategy based on the performance measure approach, is developed. Application of the imperialist competitive algorithm at the optimization level significantly improves the convergence speed of this RBDO method. At the reliability analysis level, the inverse reliability strategy is used to determine the feasibility of each probabilistic constraint at each design point by calculating its α-percentile performance, thereby avoiding convergence failure, calculation error, and disproportionate computational effort encountered using conventional moment and simulation methods. Application of the RBDO method to an actual crane structure shows that the developed RBDO realizes a design with the best tradeoff between economy and safety together with about one-third of the convergence speed and the computational cost of the existing method. This paper provides a scientific and effective design approach for the design of metallic structures of cranes.

  2. Reliability-Based Marginal Cost Pricing Problem Case with Both Demand Uncertainty and Travelers’ Perception Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaopeng Zhong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the first-best marginal cost pricing (MCP in a stochastic network with both travel demand uncertainty and stochastic perception errors within the travelers’ route choice decision processes, this paper develops a perceived risk-based stochastic network marginal cost pricing (PRSN-MCP model. Numerical examples based on an integrated method combining the moment analysis approach, the fitting distribution method, and the reliability measures are also provided to demonstrate the importance and properties of the proposed model. The main finding is that ignoring the effect of travel time reliability and travelers’ perception errors may significantly reduce the performance of the first-best MCP tolls, especially under high travelers’ confidence and network congestion levels. The analysis result could also enhance our understanding of (1 the effect of stochastic perception error (SPE on the perceived travel time distribution and the components of road toll; (2 the effect of road toll on the actual travel time distribution and its reliability measures; (3 the effect of road toll on the total network travel time distribution and its statistics; and (4 the effect of travel demand level and the value of reliability (VoR level on the components of road toll.

  3. Reliability estimation of safety-critical software-based systems using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helminen, A.

    2001-06-01

    Due to the nature of software faults and the way they cause system failures new methods are needed for the safety and reliability evaluation of software-based safety-critical automation systems in nuclear power plants. In the research project 'Programmable automation system safety integrity assessment (PASSI)', belonging to the Finnish Nuclear Safety Research Programme (FINNUS, 1999-2002), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. The project is financed together by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry (KTM) and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). In this report the applicability of Bayesian networks to the reliability estimation of software-based systems is studied. The applicability is evaluated by building Bayesian network models for the systems of interest and performing simulations for these models. In the simulations hypothetical evidence is used for defining the parameter relations and for determining the ability to compensate disparate evidence in the models. Based on the experiences from modelling and simulations we are able to conclude that Bayesian networks provide a good method for the reliability estimation of software-based systems. (orig.)

  4. Improving Phrap-based assembly of the rat using "reliable" overlaps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Roberts

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The assembly methods used for whole-genome shotgun (WGS data have a major impact on the quality of resulting draft genomes. We present a novel algorithm to generate a set of "reliable" overlaps based on identifying repeat k-mers. To demonstrate the benefits of using reliable overlaps, we have created a version of the Phrap assembly program that uses only overlaps from a specific list. We call this version PhrapUMD. Integrating PhrapUMD and our "reliable-overlap" algorithm with the Baylor College of Medicine assembler, Atlas, we assemble the BACs from the Rattus norvegicus genome project. Starting with the same data as the Nov. 2002 Atlas assembly, we compare our results and the Atlas assembly to the 4.3 Mb of rat sequence in the 21 BACs that have been finished. Our version of the draft assembly of the 21 BACs increases the coverage of finished sequence from 93.4% to 96.3%, while simultaneously reducing the base error rate from 4.5 to 1.1 errors per 10,000 bases. There are a number of ways of assessing the relative merits of assemblies when the finished sequence is available. If one views the overall quality of an assembly as proportional to the inverse of the product of the error rate and sequence missed, then the assembly presented here is seven times better. The UMD Overlapper with options for reliable overlaps is available from the authors at http://www.genome.umd.edu. We also provide the changes to the Phrap source code enabling it to use only the reliable overlaps.

  5. Reliability of Soft Tissue Model Based Implant Surgical Guides; A Methodological Mistake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabour, Siamak; Dastjerdi, Elahe Vahid

    2012-08-20

    Abstract We were interested to read the paper by Maney P and colleagues published in the July 2012 issue of J Oral Implantol. The authors aimed to assess the reliability of soft tissue model based implant surgical guides reported that the accuracy was evaluated using software. 1 I found the manuscript title of Maney P, et al. incorrect and misleading. Moreover, they reported twenty-two sites (46.81%) were considered accurate (13 of 24 maxillary and 9 of 23 mandibular sites). As the authors point out in their conclusion, Soft tissue models do not always provide sufficient accuracy for implant surgical guide fabrication.Reliability (precision) and validity (accuracy) are two different methodological issues in researches. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, likelihood ratio positive (true positive/false negative) and likelihood ratio negative (false positive/ true negative) as well as odds ratio (true results\\false results - preferably more than 50) are among the tests to evaluate the validity (accuracy) of a single test compared to a gold standard.2-4 It is not clear that the reported twenty-two sites (46.81%) which were considered accurate related to which of the above mentioned estimates for validity analysis. Reliability (repeatability or reproducibility) is being assessed by different statistical tests such as Pearson r, least square and paired t.test which all of them are among common mistakes in reliability analysis 5. Briefly, for quantitative variable Intra Class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and for qualitative variables weighted kappa should be used with caution because kappa has its own limitation too. Regarding reliability or agreement, it is good to know that for computing kappa value, just concordant cells are being considered, whereas discordant cells should also be taking into account in order to reach a correct estimation of agreement (Weighted kappa).2-4 As a take home message, for reliability and validity analysis, appropriate tests should be

  6. Choosing a heuristic and root node for edge ordering in BDD-based network reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo, Yuchang; Xing, Liudong; Zhong, Farong; Pan, Zhusheng; Chen, Zhongyu

    2014-01-01

    In the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD)-based network reliability analysis, heuristics have been widely used to obtain a reasonably good ordering of edge variables. Orderings generated using different heuristics can lead to dramatically different sizes of BDDs, and thus dramatically different running times and memory usages for the analysis of the same network. Unfortunately, due to the nature of the ordering problem (i.e., being an NP-complete problem) no formal guidelines or rules are available for choosing a good heuristic or for choosing a high-performance root node to perform edge searching using a particular heuristic. In this work, we make novel contributions by proposing heuristic and root node selection methods based on the concept of boundary sets for the BDD-based network reliability analysis. Empirical studies show that the proposed selection methods can help to generate high-performance edge ordering for most of studied cases, enabling the efficient BDD-based reliability analysis of large-scale networks. The proposed methods are demonstrated on different types of networks, including square lattice networks, torus lattice networks and de Bruijn networks

  7. A Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based (BME) Ceramic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Donhang

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with base-metal electrodes (BMEs) for potential NASA space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. The reliability of an MLCC is defined as the ability of the dielectric material to retain its insulating properties under stated environmental and operational conditions for a specified period of time t. In this presentation, a general mathematic expression of a reliability model for a BME MLCC is developed and discussed. The reliability model consists of three parts: (1) a statistical distribution that describes the individual variation of properties in a test group of samples (Weibull, log normal, normal, etc.), (2) an acceleration function that describes how a capacitors reliability responds to external stresses such as applied voltage and temperature (All units in the test group should follow the same acceleration function if they share the same failure mode, independent of individual units), and (3) the effect and contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size r, and capacitor chip size S. In general, a two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution model is used in the description of a BME capacitors reliability as a function of time. The acceleration function that relates a capacitors reliability to external stresses is dependent on the failure mode. Two failure modes have been identified in BME MLCCs: catastrophic and slow degradation. A catastrophic failure is characterized by a time-accelerating increase in leakage current that is mainly due to existing processing defects (voids, cracks, delamination, etc.), or the extrinsic defects. A slow degradation failure is characterized by a near-linear increase in leakage current against the stress time; this is caused by the electromigration of oxygen vacancies (intrinsic defects). The

  8. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1987-01-01

    Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

  9. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  10. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  11. Perceptual attraction in tool use: evidence for a reliability-based weighting mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debats, Nienke B; Ernst, Marc O; Heuer, Herbert

    2017-04-01

    Humans are well able to operate tools whereby their hand movement is linked, via a kinematic transformation, to a spatially distant object moving in a separate plane of motion. An everyday example is controlling a cursor on a computer monitor. Despite these separate reference frames, the perceived positions of the hand and the object were found to be biased toward each other. We propose that this perceptual attraction is based on the principles by which the brain integrates redundant sensory information of single objects or events, known as optimal multisensory integration. That is, 1 ) sensory information about the hand and the tool are weighted according to their relative reliability (i.e., inverse variances), and 2 ) the unisensory reliabilities sum up in the integrated estimate. We assessed whether perceptual attraction is consistent with optimal multisensory integration model predictions. We used a cursor-control tool-use task in which we manipulated the relative reliability of the unisensory hand and cursor position estimates. The perceptual biases shifted according to these relative reliabilities, with an additional bias due to contextual factors that were present in experiment 1 but not in experiment 2 The biased position judgments' variances were, however, systematically larger than the predicted optimal variances. Our findings suggest that the perceptual attraction in tool use results from a reliability-based weighting mechanism similar to optimal multisensory integration, but that certain boundary conditions for optimality might not be satisfied. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Kinematic tool use is associated with a perceptual attraction between the spatially separated hand and the effective part of the tool. We provide a formal account for this phenomenon, thereby showing that the process behind it is similar to optimal integration of sensory information relating to single objects. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  12. Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvehag, Karin

    2011-07-01

    Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while under investments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, over investments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socio economically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers. This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socio economically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed riskbased methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk

  13. A Reliability-Based Determination of Economic Life of Marine power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atua, K.

    1999-01-01

    The reliability-based life approach is utilized. Selective failure modes of marine power plants are used for illustration. A case study of the Egyptian Commercial Fleet owned by the Public Sector Company was analyzed and used to establish a demonstration of the expected economic life based on local operating and maintenance conditions. The data acquired is analyzed and failure trend is derived for each failure mode. Probabilistic techniques are used to randomly generate numbers and times of occurrence of different failure modes. The reliability analysis is performed on the life span expected by the manufacture to predict the total number of failures, dependent failures, and cost of failures. Total expenditure due to random failure and cost of scheduled maintenance together with the annual income are utilized (using the time value of money) to determine the economic life of the plant. Conclusions are derived and recommendations for the enhancement of this work in the future are made

  14. Reliability-based assessment of deteriorating ship structures operating in multiple sea loading climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moan, Torgeir [Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Marine Technology Centre, Tyholt, N 7491 Trondheim (Norway)], E-mail: tormo@marin.ntnu.no; Ayala-Uraga, Efren [Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Marine Technology Centre, Tyholt, N 7491 Trondheim (Norway)

    2008-03-15

    A reliability-based model for assessment of deteriorating ships subjected to multiple environmental conditions is established. Deterioration due to combined crack growth and corrosion in structural components of a ship hull is accounted for based on a fracture mechanics formulation. The model enables to take into account the corrosion-induced increased crack growth rate in two ways: (1) the increased stress range produced by the plate thinning (wastage) effect and (2) corrosion fatigue itself. Sensitivity studies are carried out to evaluate the effect of inspection updating on a production ship subjected to two different climate conditions. The hazard rate concept is adopted as a measure of reliability and emphasized throughout the different case studies.

  15. Reliability-Based Calibration of Load Duration Factors for Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Svensson, Staffan; Stang, Birgitte Friis Dela

    2005-01-01

    John Dalsgaard Sørensen, Staffan Svensson, Birgitte Dela Stang : Reliability-Based Calibration of Load Duration Factors for Timber Structures     Abstract :   The load bearing capacity of timber structures decrease with time depending on the type of load and timber. Based on representative limit...... states and stochastic models for timber structures, load duration factors are calibrated using probabilistic methods. Load duration e.ects are estimated on basis of simulation of realizations of wind, snow and imposed loads in accordance with the load models in the Danish structural codes. Three damage...... accumulation models are considered, namely Gerhards model, Barrett and Foschi _ s model and Foschi and Yao _ s model. The parameters in these models are .tted by the Maximum Likelihood Method using data relevant for Danish structural timber and the statistical uncertainty is quanti .ed. The reliability...

  16. Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Jianing; Yan Shaoze

    2011-01-01

    The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

  17. [Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

    2014-08-01

    A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

  18. Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu Jianing; Yan Shaoze, E-mail: yansz@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Tribology, Department of Precision Instruments and Mechanology, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 (China)

    2011-07-19

    The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

  19. Towards a More Reliable and Available Docker-based Container Cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Verma, Mudit; Dhawan, Mohan

    2017-01-01

    Operating System-level virtualization technology, or containers as they are commonly known, represents the next generation of light-weight virtualization, and is primarily represented by Docker. However, Docker's current design does not complement the SLAs from Docker-based container cloud offerings promising both reliability and high availability. The tight coupling between the containers and the Docker daemon proves fatal for the containers' uptime during daemon's unavailability due to eith...

  20. Guidelines for Interactive Reliability-Based Structural Optimization using Quasi-Newton Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, C.; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    increase of the condition number and preserve positive definiteness without discarding previously obtained information. All proposed modifications are also valid for non-interactive optimization problems. Heuristic rules from various optimization problems concerning when and how to impose interactions......Guidelines for interactive reliability-based structural optimization problems are outlined in terms of modifications of standard quasi-Newton algorithms. The proposed modifications minimize the condition number of the approximate Hessian matrix in each iteration, restrict the relative and absolute...

  1. Reliability and Validity of an Internet-based Questionnaire Measuring Lifetime Physical Activity

    OpenAIRE

    De Vera, Mary A.; Ratzlaff, Charles; Doerfling, Paul; Kopec, Jacek

    2010-01-01

    Lifetime exposure to physical activity is an important construct for evaluating associations between physical activity and disease outcomes, given the long induction periods in many chronic diseases. The authors' objective in this study was to evaluate the measurement properties of the Lifetime Physical Activity Questionnaire (L-PAQ), a novel Internet-based, self-administered instrument measuring lifetime physical activity, among Canadian men and women in 2005–2006. Reliability was examined u...

  2. Reliability-based failure cause assessment of collapsed bridge during construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hyun-Ho; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Il-Yoon; Cho, Hyo-Nam; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2006-01-01

    Until now, in many forensic reports, the failure cause assessments are usually carried out by a deterministic approach so far. However, it may be possible for the forensic investigation to lead to unreasonable results far from the real collapse scenario, because the deterministic approach does not systematically take into account any information on the uncertainties involved in the failures of structures. Reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability-based forensic engineering) methodology is developed which can incorporate the uncertainties involved in structural failures and structures, and to apply them to the collapsed bridge in order to identify the most critical failure scenario and find the cause that triggered the bridge collapse. Moreover, to save the time and cost of evaluation, an algorithm of automated event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed and possible to automatically calculate the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of failure scenarios. Also, for reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using the Bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in the forensic report. For the applicability, the proposed approach is applied to the Hang-ju Grand Bridge, which collapsed during construction, and compared with deterministic approach

  3. Estimating the Optimal Capacity for Reservoir Dam based on Reliability Level for Meeting Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Taghian

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: One of the practical and classic problems in the water resource studies is estimation of the optimal reservoir capacity to satisfy demands. However, full supplying demands for total periods need a very high dam to supply demands during severe drought conditions. That means a major part of reservoir capacity and costs is only usable for a short period of the reservoir lifetime, which would be unjustified in economic analysis. Thus, in the proposed method and model, the full meeting demand is only possible for a percent time of the statistical period that is according to reliability constraint. In the general methods, although this concept apparently seems simple, there is a necessity to add binary variables for meeting or not meeting demands in the linear programming model structures. Thus, with many binary variables, solving the problem will be time consuming and difficult. Another way to solve the problem is the application of the yield model. This model includes some simpler assumptions and that is so difficult to consider details of the water resource system. The applicationof evolutionary algorithms, for the problems have many constraints, is also very complicated. Therefore, this study pursues another solution. Materials and Methods: In this study, for development and improvement the usual methods, instead of mix integer linear programming (MILP and the above methods, a simulation model including flow network linear programming is used coupled with an interface manual code in Matlab to account the reliability based on output file of the simulation model. The acre reservoir simulation program (ARSP has been utilized as a simulation model. A major advantage of the ARSP is its inherent flexibility in defining the operating policies through a penalty structure specified by the user. The ARSP utilizes network flow optimization techniques to handle a subset of general linear programming (LP problems for individual time intervals

  4. An Intelligent Method for Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Response Surface

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    桂劲松; 刘红; 康海贵

    2004-01-01

    As water depth increases, the structural safety and reliability of a system become more and more important and challenging. Therefore, the structural reliability method must be applied in ocean engineering design such as offshore platform design. If the performance function is known in structural reliability analysis, the first-order second-moment method is often used. If the performance function could not be definitely expressed, the response surface method is always used because it has a very clear train of thought and simple programming. However, the traditional response surface method fits the response surface of quadratic polynomials where the problem of accuracy could not be solved, because the true limit state surface can be fitted well only in the area near the checking point. In this paper, an intelligent computing method based on the whole response surface is proposed, which can be used for the situation where the performance function could not be definitely expressed in structural reliability analysis. In this method, a response surface of the fuzzy neural network for the whole area should be constructed first, and then the structural reliability can be calculated by the genetic algorithm. In the proposed method, all the sample points for the training network come from the whole area, so the true limit state surface in the whole area can be fitted. Through calculational examples and comparative analysis, it can be known that the proposed method is much better than the traditional response surface method of quadratic polynomials, because, the amount of calculation of finite element analysis is largely reduced, the accuracy of calculation is improved,and the true limit state surface can be fitted very well in the whole area. So, the method proposed in this paper is suitable for engineering application.

  5. Comprehensive proficiency-based inanimate training for robotic surgery: reliability, feasibility, and educational benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, Nabeel A; Dulan, Genevieve; Hogg, Deborah C; Rege, Robert V; Powers, Cathryn E; Tesfay, Seifu T; Hynan, Linda S; Scott, Daniel J

    2012-10-01

    We previously developed a comprehensive proficiency-based robotic training curriculum demonstrating construct, content, and face validity. This study aimed to assess reliability, feasibility, and educational benefit associated with curricular implementation. Over an 11-month period, 55 residents, fellows, and faculty (robotic novices) from general surgery, urology, and gynecology were enrolled in a 2-month curriculum: online didactics, half-day hands-on tutorial, and self-practice using nine inanimate exercises. Each trainee completed a questionnaire and performed a single proctored repetition of each task before (pretest) and after (post-test) training. Tasks were scored for time and errors using modified FLS metrics. For inter-rater reliability (IRR), three trainees were scored by two raters and analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Data from eight experts were analyzed using ICC and Cronbach's α to determine test-retest reliability and internal consistency, respectively. Educational benefit was assessed by comparing baseline (pretest) and final (post-test) trainee performance; comparisons used Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Of the 55 trainees that pretested, 53 (96 %) completed all curricular components in 9-17 h and reached proficiency after completing an average of 72 ± 28 repetitions over 5 ± 1 h. Trainees indicated minimal prior robotic experience and "poor comfort" with robotic skills at baseline (1.8 ± 0.9) compared to final testing (3.1 ± 0.8, p reliability was 0.91 (p training for all nine tasks and according to composite scores (548 ± 176 vs. 914 ± 81, p reliability measures, demonstrated feasibility for a large cohort of trainees, and yielded significant educational benefit. Further studies and adoption of this curriculum are encouraged.

  6. Modeling Energy & Reliability of a CNT based WSN on an HPC Setup

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohit Pathak

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available We have analyzed the effect of innovations in Nanotechnology on Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN and have modeled Carbon Nanotube (CNT based sensor nodes from a device prospective. A WSN model has been programmed in Simulink-MATLAB and a library has been developed. Integration of CNT in WSN for various modules such as sensors, microprocessors, batteries etc has been shown. Also average energy consumption for the system has been formulated and its reliability has been shown holistically. A proposition has been put forward on the changes needed in existing sensor node structure to improve its efficiency and to facilitate as well as enhance the assimilation of CNT based devices in a WSN. Finally we have commented on the challenges that exist in this technology and described the important factors that need to be considered for calculating reliability. This research will help in practical implementation of CNT based devices and analysis of their key effects on the WSN environment. The work has been executed on Simulink and Distributive Computing toolbox of MATLAB. The proposal has been compared to the recent developments and past experimental results reported in this field. This attempt to derieve the energy consumption and reliability implications will help in development of real devices using CNT which is a major hurdle in bringing the success from lab to commercial market. Recent research in CNT has been used to model an energy efficient model which will also lead to the development CAD tools. Library for Reliability and Energy consumption includes analysis of various parts of a WSN system which is being constructed from CNT. Nano routing in a CNT system is also implemented with its dependencies. Finally the computations were executed on a HPC setup and the model showed remarkable speedup.

  7. Reliability- and performance-based robust design optimization of MEMS structures considering technological uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martowicz, Adam; Uhl, Tadeusz

    2012-10-01

    The paper discusses the applicability of a reliability- and performance-based multi-criteria robust design optimization technique for micro-electromechanical systems, considering their technological uncertainties. Nowadays, micro-devices are commonly applied systems, especially in the automotive industry, taking advantage of utilizing both the mechanical structure and electronic control circuit on one board. Their frequent use motivates the elaboration of virtual prototyping tools that can be applied in design optimization with the introduction of technological uncertainties and reliability. The authors present a procedure for the optimization of micro-devices, which is based on the theory of reliability-based robust design optimization. This takes into consideration the performance of a micro-device and its reliability assessed by means of uncertainty analysis. The procedure assumes that, for each checked design configuration, the assessment of uncertainty propagation is performed with the meta-modeling technique. The described procedure is illustrated with an example of the optimization carried out for a finite element model of a micro-mirror. The multi-physics approach allowed the introduction of several physical phenomena to correctly model the electrostatic actuation and the squeezing effect present between electrodes. The optimization was preceded by sensitivity analysis to establish the design and uncertain domains. The genetic algorithms fulfilled the defined optimization task effectively. The best discovered individuals are characterized by a minimized value of the multi-criteria objective function, simultaneously satisfying the constraint on material strength. The restriction of the maximum equivalent stresses was introduced with the conditionally formulated objective function with a penalty component. The yielded results were successfully verified with a global uniform search through the input design domain.

  8. A Reliability and Validity of an Instrument to Evaluate the School-Based Assessment System: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazali, Nor Hasnida Md

    2016-01-01

    A valid, reliable and practical instrument is needed to evaluate the implementation of the school-based assessment (SBA) system. The aim of this study is to develop and assess the validity and reliability of an instrument to measure the perception of teachers towards the SBA implementation in schools. The instrument is developed based on a…

  9. Force-based and displacement-based reliability assessment approaches for highway bridges under multiple hazard actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Huang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The strength limit state of American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD Bridge Design Specifications is developed based on the failure probabilities of the combination of non-extreme loads. The proposed design limit state equation (DLSE has been fully calibrated for dead load and live load by using the reliability-based approach. On the other hand, most of DLSEs in other limit states, including the extreme events Ⅰ and Ⅱ, have not been developed and calibrated though taking certain probability-based concepts into account. This paper presents an assessment procedure of highway bridge reliabilities under the limit state of extreme event Ⅰ, i. e., the combination of dead load, live load and earthquake load. A force-based approach and a displacement-based approach are proposed and implemented on a set of nine simplified bridge models. Results show that the displacement-based approach comes up with more convergent and accurate reliabilities for selected models, which can be applied to other hazards.

  10. Analyzing Reliability and Performance Trade-Offs of HLS-Based Designs in SRAM-Based FPGAs Under Soft Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambara, Lucas Antunes; Tonfat, Jorge; Santos, André; Kastensmidt, Fernanda Lima; Medina, Nilberto H.; Added, Nemitala; Aguiar, Vitor A. P.; Aguirre, Fernando; Silveira, Marcilei A. G.

    2017-02-01

    The increasing system complexity of FPGA-based hardware designs and shortening of time-to-market have motivated the adoption of new designing methodologies focused on addressing the current need for high-performance circuits. High-Level Synthesis (HLS) tools can generate Register Transfer Level (RTL) designs from high-level software programming languages. These tools have evolved significantly in recent years, providing optimized RTL designs, which can serve the needs of safety-critical applications that require both high performance and high reliability levels. However, a reliability evaluation of HLS-based designs under soft errors has not yet been presented. In this work, the trade-offs of different HLS-based designs in terms of reliability, resource utilization, and performance are investigated by analyzing their behavior under soft errors and comparing them to a standard processor-based implementation in an SRAM-based FPGA. Results obtained from fault injection campaigns and radiation experiments show that it is possible to increase the performance of a processor-based system up to 5,000 times by changing its architecture with a small impact in the cross section (increasing up to 8 times), and still increasing the Mean Workload Between Failures (MWBF) of the system.

  11. Reliability assessment and probability based design of reinforced concrete containments and shear walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Ellingwood, B.; Shinozuka, M.

    1986-03-01

    This report summarizes work completed under the program entitled, ''Probability-Based Load Combinations for Design of Category I Structures.'' Under this program, the probabilistic models for various static and dynamic loads were formulated. The randomness and uncertainties in material strengths and structural resistance were established. Several limit states of concrete containments and shear walls were identified and analytically formulated. Furthermore, the reliability analysis methods for estimating limit state probabilities were established. These reliability analysis methods can be used to evaluate the safety levels of nuclear structures under various combinations of static and dynamic loads. They can also be used to generate analytically the fragility data for PRA studies. In addition to the development of reliability analysis methods, probability-based design criteria for concrete containments and shear wall structures have also been developed. The proposed design criteria are in the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) format. The load and resistance factors are determined for several limit states and target limit state probabilities. Thus, the proposed design criteria are risk-consistent and have a well-established rationale. 73 refs., 18 figs., 16 tabs

  12. Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

  13. Network reliability analysis of complex systems using a non-simulation-based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Youngsuk; Kang, Won-Hee

    2013-01-01

    Civil infrastructures such as transportation, water supply, sewers, telecommunications, and electrical and gas networks often establish highly complex networks, due to their multiple source and distribution nodes, complex topology, and functional interdependence between network components. To understand the reliability of such complex network system under catastrophic events such as earthquakes and to provide proper emergency management actions under such situation, efficient and accurate reliability analysis methods are necessary. In this paper, a non-simulation-based network reliability analysis method is developed based on the Recursive Decomposition Algorithm (RDA) for risk assessment of generic networks whose operation is defined by the connections of multiple initial and terminal node pairs. The proposed method has two separate decomposition processes for two logical functions, intersection and union, and combinations of these processes are used for the decomposition of any general system event with multiple node pairs. The proposed method is illustrated through numerical network examples with a variety of system definitions, and is applied to a benchmark gas transmission pipe network in Memphis TN to estimate the seismic performance and functional degradation of the network under a set of earthquake scenarios.

  14. Reliability based impact localization in composite panels using Bayesian updating and the Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Llewellyn; Sharif Khodaei, Zahra; Aliabadi, M. H.

    2018-01-01

    In this work, a reliability based impact detection strategy for a sensorized composite structure is proposed. Impacts are localized using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) with recorded guided waves due to impacts used as inputs. To account for variability in the recorded data under operational conditions, Bayesian updating and Kalman filter techniques are applied to improve the reliability of the detection algorithm. The possibility of having one or more faulty sensors is considered, and a decision fusion algorithm based on sub-networks of sensors is proposed to improve the application of the methodology to real structures. A strategy for reliably categorizing impacts into high energy impacts, which are probable to cause damage in the structure (true impacts), and low energy non-damaging impacts (false impacts), has also been proposed to reduce the false alarm rate. The proposed strategy involves employing classification ANNs with different features extracted from captured signals used as inputs. The proposed methodologies are validated by experimental results on a quasi-isotropic composite coupon impacted with a range of impact energies.

  15. Accounting for Proof Test Data in a Reliability Based Design Optimization Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventor, Gerharad; Scotti, Stephen J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of proof (or acceptance) test data during the reliability based design optimization of structural components. It is assumed that every component will be proof tested and that the component will only enter into service if it passes the proof test. The goal is to reduce the component weight, while maintaining high reliability, by exploiting the proof test results during the design process. The proposed procedure results in the simultaneous design of the structural component and the proof test itself and provides the designer with direct control over the probability of failing the proof test. The procedure is illustrated using two analytical example problems and the results indicate that significant weight savings are possible when exploiting the proof test results during the design process.

  16. Analysis and recommendations for a reliable programming of software based safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunez McLeod, J.; Nunez McLeod, J.E.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    The present paper summarizes the results of several studies performed for the development of high software on i486 microprocessors, towards its utilization for control and safety systems for nuclear power plants. The work is based on software programmed in C language. Several recommendations oriented to high reliability software are analyzed, relating the requirements on high level language to its influence on assembler level. Several metrics are implemented, that allow for the quantification of the results achieved. New metrics were developed and other were adapted, in order to obtain more efficient indexes for the software description. Such metrics are helpful to visualize the adaptation of the software under development to the quality rules under use. A specific program developed to assist the reliability analyst on this quantification is also present in the paper. It performs the analysis of an executable program written in C language, disassembling it and evaluating its inter al structures. (author)

  17. Reliability Assessment of Cloud Computing Platform Based on Semiquantitative Information and Evidential Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hang Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reliability assessment method based on evidential reasoning (ER rule and semiquantitative information is proposed in this paper, where a new reliability assessment architecture including four aspects with both quantitative data and qualitative knowledge is established. The assessment architecture is more objective in describing complex dynamic cloud computing environment than that in traditional method. In addition, the ER rule which has good performance for multiple attribute decision making problem is employed to integrate different types of the attributes in assessment architecture, which can obtain more accurate assessment results. The assessment results of the case study in an actual cloud computing platform verify the effectiveness and the advantage of the proposed method.

  18. Cut set-based risk and reliability analysis for arbitrarily interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, Gregory D.

    2000-01-01

    Method for computing all-terminal reliability for arbitrarily interconnected networks such as the United States public switched telephone network. The method includes an efficient search algorithm to generate minimal cut sets for nonhierarchical networks directly from the network connectivity diagram. Efficiency of the search algorithm stems in part from its basis on only link failures. The method also includes a novel quantification scheme that likewise reduces computational effort associated with assessing network reliability based on traditional risk importance measures. Vast reductions in computational effort are realized since combinatorial expansion and subsequent Boolean reduction steps are eliminated through analysis of network segmentations using a technique of assuming node failures to occur on only one side of a break in the network, and repeating the technique for all minimal cut sets generated with the search algorithm. The method functions equally well for planar and non-planar networks.

  19. Reliability based topology optimization for continuum structures with local failure constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luo, Yangjun; Zhou, Mingdong; Wang, Michael Yu

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an effective method for stress constrained topology optimization problems under load and material uncertainties. Based on the Performance Measure Approach (PMA), the optimization problem is formulated as to minimize the objective function under a large number of (stress......-related) target performance constraints. In order to overcome the stress singularity phenomenon caused by the combined stress and reliability constraints, a reduction strategy on target reliability index is proposed and utilized together with the ε-relaxation approach. Meanwhile, an enhanced aggregation method...... is employed to aggregate the selected active constraints using a general K–S function, which avoids expensive computational cost from the large-scale nature of local failure constraints. Several numerical examples are given to demonstrate the validity of the present method....

  20. Reliability Evaluation of Base-Metal-Electrode Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors for Potential Space Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, David (Donhang); Sampson, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Base-metal-electrode (BME) ceramic capacitors are being investigated for possible use in high-reliability spacelevel applications. This paper focuses on how BME capacitors construction and microstructure affects their lifetime and reliability. Examination of the construction and microstructure of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) BME capacitors reveals great variance in dielectric layer thickness, even among BME capacitors with the same rated voltage. Compared to PME (precious-metal-electrode) capacitors, BME capacitors exhibit a denser and more uniform microstructure, with an average grain size between 0.3 and 0.5 m, which is much less than that of most PME capacitors. BME capacitors can be fabricated with more internal electrode layers and thinner dielectric layers than PME capacitors because they have a fine-grained microstructure and do not shrink much during ceramic sintering. This makes it possible for BME capacitors to achieve a very high capacitance volumetric efficiency. The reliability of BME and PME capacitors was investigated using highly accelerated life testing (HALT). Most BME capacitors were found to fail with an early avalanche breakdown, followed by a regular dielectric wearout failure during the HALT test. When most of the early failures, characterized with avalanche breakdown, were removed, BME capacitors exhibited a minimum mean time-to-failure (MTTF) of more than 105 years at room temperature and rated voltage. Dielectric thickness was found to be a critical parameter for the reliability of BME capacitors. The number of stacked grains in a dielectric layer appears to play a significant role in determining BME capacitor reliability. Although dielectric layer thickness varies for a given rated voltage in BME capacitors, the number of stacked grains is relatively consistent, typically around 12 for a number of BME capacitors with a rated voltage of 25V. This may suggest that the number of grains per dielectric layer is more critical than the

  1. Physics-based process modeling, reliability prediction, and design guidelines for flip-chip devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaelides, Stylianos

    -down devices without the underfill, based on the thorough understanding of the failure modes. Also, practical design guidelines for material, geometry and process parameters for reliable flip-chip devices have been developed.

  2. Reliability of a smartphone-based goniometer for knee joint goniometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferriero, Giorgio; Vercelli, Stefano; Sartorio, Francesco; Muñoz Lasa, Susana; Ilieva, Elena; Brigatti, Elisa; Ruella, Carolina; Foti, Calogero

    2013-06-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the reliability of a smartphone-based application developed for photographic-based goniometry, DrGoniometer (DrG), by comparing its measurement of the knee joint angle with that made by a universal goniometer (UG). Joint goniometry is a common mode of clinical assessment used in many disciplines, in particular in rehabilitation. One validated method is photographic-based goniometry, but the procedure is usually complex: the image has to be downloaded from the camera to a computer and then edited using dedicated software. This disadvantage may be overcome by the new generation of mobile phones (smartphones) that have computer-like functionality and an integrated digital camera. This validation study was carried out under two different controlled conditions: (i) with the participant to measure in a fixed position and (ii) with a battery of pictures to assess. In the first part, four raters performed repeated measurements with DrG and UG at different knee joint angles. Then, 10 other raters measured the knee at different flexion angles ranging 20-145° on a battery of 35 pictures taken in a clinical setting. The results showed that inter-rater and intra-rater correlations were always more than 0.958. Agreement with the UG showed a width of 18.2° [95% limits of agreement (LoA)=-7.5/+10.7°] and 14.1° (LoA=-6.6/+7.5°). In conclusion, DrG seems to be a reliable method for measuring knee joint angle. This mHealth application can be an alternative/additional method of goniometry, easier to use than other photographic-based goniometric assessments. Further studies are required to assess its reliability for the measurement of other joints.

  3. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

    1993-08-01

    This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

  4. Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baoyu LI

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis, and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain. However, efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved. The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation, whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs. While in fact, structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering, thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method, and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT technique to compute the fractional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations, which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs. The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations. Besides, the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis, which is determined by UT, is really small. Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.

  5. Method for assessing the reliability of molecular diagnostics based on multiplexed SERS-coded nanoparticles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Y Leigh

    Full Text Available Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS nanoparticles have been engineered to generate unique fingerprint spectra and are potentially useful as bright contrast agents for molecular diagnostics. One promising strategy for biomedical diagnostics and imaging is to functionalize various particle types ("flavors", each emitting a unique spectral signature, to target a large multiplexed panel of molecular biomarkers. While SERS particles emit narrow spectral features that allow them to be easily separable under ideal conditions, the presence of competing noise sources and background signals such as detector noise, laser background, and autofluorescence confounds the reliability of demultiplexing algorithms. Results obtained during time-constrained in vivo imaging experiments may not be reproducible or accurate. Therefore, our goal is to provide experimentalists with a metric that may be monitored to enforce a desired bound on accuracy within a user-defined confidence level. We have defined a spectral reliability index (SRI, based on the output of a direct classical least-squares (DCLS demultiplexing routine, which provides a measure of the reliability of the computed nanoparticle concentrations and ratios. We present simulations and experiments to demonstrate the feasibility of this strategy, which can potentially be utilized for a range of instruments and biomedical applications involving multiplexed SERS nanoparticles.

  6. Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee; Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup

    2015-01-01

    In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF

  7. Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Insitute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

  8. WEAMR — A Weighted Energy Aware Multipath Reliable Routing Mechanism for Hotline-Based WSNs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki-Hyung Kim

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Reliable source to sink communication is the most important factor for an efficient routing protocol especially in domains of military, healthcare and disaster recovery applications. We present weighted energy aware multipath reliable routing (WEAMR, a novel energy aware multipath routing protocol which utilizes hotline-assisted routing to meet such requirements for mission critical applications. The protocol reduces the number of average hops from source to destination and provides unmatched reliability as compared to well known reactive ad hoc protocols i.e., AODV and AOMDV. Our protocol makes efficient use of network paths based on weighted cost calculation and intelligently selects the best possible paths for data transmissions. The path cost calculation considers end to end number of hops, latency and minimum energy node value in the path. In case of path failure path recalculation is done efficiently with minimum latency and control packets overhead. Our evaluation shows that our proposal provides better end-to-end delivery with less routing overhead and higher packet delivery success ratio compared to AODV and AOMDV. The use of multipath also increases overall life time of WSN network using optimum energy available paths between sender and receiver in WDNs.

  9. A fracture mechanics and reliability based method to assess non-destructive testings for pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitagawa, Hideo; Hisada, Toshiaki

    1979-01-01

    Quantitative evaluation has not been made on the effects of carrying out preservice and in-service nondestructive tests for securing the soundness, safety and maintainability of pressure vessels, spending large expenses and labor. Especially the problems concerning the time and interval of in-service inspections lack the reasonable, quantitative evaluation method. In this paper, the problems of pressure vessels are treated by having developed the analysis method based on reliability technology and probability theory. The growth of surface cracks in pressure vessels was estimated, using the results of previous studies. The effects of nondestructive inspection on the defects in pressure vessels were evaluated, and the influences of many factors, such as plate thickness, stress, the accuracy of inspection and so on, on the effects of inspection, and the method of evaluating the inspections at unequal intervals were investigated. The analysis of reliability taking in-service inspection into consideration, the evaluation of in-service inspection and other affecting factors through the typical examples of analysis, and the review concerning the time of inspection are described. The method of analyzing the reliability of pressure vessels, considering the growth of defects and preservice and in-service nondestructive tests, was able to be systematized so as to be practically usable. (Kako, I.)

  10. Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanjilal, Oindrila; Manohar, C. S.

    2017-07-01

    The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations.

  11. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  12. Interrater Reliability of the Power Mobility Road Test in the Virtual Reality-Based Simulator-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaraj, Deepan C; Dicianno, Brad E; Mahajan, Harshal P; Buhari, Alhaji M; Cooper, Rory A

    2016-07-01

    To assess interrater reliability of the Power Mobility Road Test (PMRT) when administered through the Virtual Reality-based SIMulator-version 2 (VRSIM-2). Within-subjects repeated-measures design. Participants interacted with VRSIM-2 through 2 display options (desktop monitor vs immersive virtual reality screens) using 2 control interfaces (roller system vs conventional movement-sensing joystick), providing 4 different driving scenarios (driving conditions 1-4). Participants performed 3 virtual driving sessions for each of the 2 display screens and 1 session through a real-world driving course (driving condition 5). The virtual PMRT was conducted in a simulated indoor office space, and an equivalent course was charted in an open space for the real-world assessment. After every change in driving condition, participants completed a self-reported workload assessment questionnaire, the Task Load Index, developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. A convenience sample of electric-powered wheelchair (EPW) athletes (N=21) recruited at the 31st National Veterans Wheelchair Games. Not applicable. Total composite PMRT score. The PMRT had high interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC]>.75) between the 2 raters in all 5 driving conditions. Post hoc analyses revealed that the reliability analyses had >80% power to detect high ICCs in driving conditions 1 and 4. The PMRT has high interrater reliability in conditions 1 and 4 and could be used to assess EPW driving performance virtually in VRSIM-2. However, further psychometric assessment is necessary to assess the feasibility of administering the PMRT using the different interfaces of VRSIM-2. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A reliable transmission protocol for ZigBee-based wireless patient monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyr-Kuen; Kao, Tsair; Chan, Chia-Tai; Huang, Chih-Ning; Chiang, Chih-Yen; Lai, Chin-Yu; Tung, Tse-Hua; Wang, Pi-Chung

    2012-01-01

    Patient monitoring systems are gaining their importance as the fast-growing global elderly population increases demands for caretaking. These systems use wireless technologies to transmit vital signs for medical evaluation. In a multihop ZigBee network, the existing systems usually use broadcast or multicast schemes to increase the reliability of signals transmission; however, both the schemes lead to significantly higher network traffic and end-to-end transmission delay. In this paper, we present a reliable transmission protocol based on anycast routing for wireless patient monitoring. Our scheme automatically selects the closest data receiver in an anycast group as a destination to reduce the transmission latency as well as the control overhead. The new protocol also shortens the latency of path recovery by initiating route recovery from the intermediate routers of the original path. On the basis of a reliable transmission scheme, we implement a ZigBee device for fall monitoring, which integrates fall detection, indoor positioning, and ECG monitoring. When the triaxial accelerometer of the device detects a fall, the current position of the patient is transmitted to an emergency center through a ZigBee network. In order to clarify the situation of the fallen patient, 4-s ECG signals are also transmitted. Our transmission scheme ensures the successful transmission of these critical messages. The experimental results show that our scheme is fast and reliable. We also demonstrate that our devices can seamlessly integrate with the next generation technology of wireless wide area network, worldwide interoperability for microwave access, to achieve real-time patient monitoring.

  14. Designing time-of-use program based on stochastic security constrained unit commitment considering reliability index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikzad, Mehdi; Mozafari, Babak; Bashirvand, Mahdi; Solaymani, Soodabeh; Ranjbar, Ali Mohamad

    2012-01-01

    Recently in electricity markets, a massive focus has been made on setting up opportunities for participating demand side. Such opportunities, also known as demand response (DR) options, are triggered by either a grid reliability problem or high electricity prices. Two important challenges that market operators are facing are appropriate designing and reasonable pricing of DR options. In this paper, time-of-use program (TOU) as a prevalent time-varying program is modeled linearly based on own and cross elasticity definition. In order to decide on TOU rates, a stochastic model is proposed in which the optimum TOU rates are determined based on grid reliability index set by the operator. Expected Load Not Supplied (ELNS) is used to evaluate reliability of the power system in each hour. The proposed stochastic model is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) problem and solved using CPLEX solver. The validity of the method is tested over the IEEE 24-bus test system. In this regard, the impact of the proposed pricing method on system load profile; operational costs and required capacity of up- and down-spinning reserve as well as improvement of load factor is demonstrated. Also the sensitivity of the results to elasticity coefficients is investigated. -- Highlights: ► Time-of-use demand response program is linearly modeled. ► A stochastic model is proposed to determine the optimum TOU rates based on ELNS index set by the operator. ► The model is formulated as a short-term two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem.

  15. Reliability of electrode wear compensation based on material removal per discharge in micro EDM milling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bissacco, Giuliano; Tristo, G.; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the reliability of workpiece material removal per discharge (MRD) estimation for application in electrode wear compensation based on workpiece material removal. An experimental investigation involving discharge counting and automatic on the machine measurement of removed...... material volume was carried out in a range of process parameters settings from fine finishing to roughing. MRD showed a decreasing trend with the progress of the machining operation, reaching stabilization after a number of machined layers. Using the information on MRD and discharge counting, a material...

  16. A Study on the Storage Reliability of LSINS Based on Step-stress Accelerated Life Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teng Fei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the step-stress accelerated life test and the laser strap-down inertial navigation system, this paper studies the accelerated life model and the test method, provides the likelihood function, the likelihood equation and the two-order derivative when the stress level is k, evaluates the effectiveness of the method with the simulation test model established by MATLAB, applies the research findings in the storage reliability study of the XX laser strap-down inertial navigation system, and puts forward an effective evaluation method of the storage life of the inertial navigation system.

  17. Reliability-based optimization of maintenance scheduling of mechanical components under fatigue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaurepaire, P.; Valdebenito, M.A.; Schuëller, G.I.; Jensen, H.A.

    2012-01-01

    This study presents the optimization of the maintenance scheduling of mechanical components under fatigue loading. The cracks of damaged structures may be detected during non-destructive inspection and subsequently repaired. Fatigue crack initiation and growth show inherent variability, and as well the outcome of inspection activities. The problem is addressed under the framework of reliability based optimization. The initiation and propagation of fatigue cracks are efficiently modeled using cohesive zone elements. The applicability of the method is demonstrated by a numerical example, which involves a plate with two holes subject to alternating stress. PMID:23564979

  18. Life Cycle Management for Equipments in Nuclear Plants Based on Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Dalin; Sun Jinlong

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle management model based on reliability includes two parts: obtaining failure rate function and founding cost-oriented model to solve. It is actually a single objective programming whose optimal solution is the most economical replacement period. Parameters of failure rate function are estimated by Weibull process fitting with the method of maximum likelihood. The objective function of the model is life-cost function where the dependent variable is replacement period T, with the constraints of failure rate or availability. After foundation of LCM model, we solve it to find the optimal replacement period for the equipments. (author)

  19. Life cycle management for equipments in nuclear plants based on reliability and actual conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalin, Wang; Jingquan, Liu; Peng, Liu

    2010-01-01

    Life cycle management model based on reliability includes two parts: obtaining failure rate function and founding cost-oriented model to solve. It is actually a single objective programming whose optimal solution is the most economical replacement period. Parameters of failure rate function are estimated by Weibull process fitting with the method of maximum likelihood. The objective function of the model is life-cost function where the dependent variable is replacement period T, with the constraints of failure rate or availability. After foundation of LCM model, we solve it to find the optimal replacement period for the equipments. (authors)

  20. Reliability analysis on passive residual heat removal of AP1000 based on Grey model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qi, Shi; Zhou, Tao; Shahzad, Muhammad Ali; Li, Yu [North China Electric Power Univ., Beijing (China). School of Nuclear Science and Engineering; Beijing Key Laboratory of Passive Safety Technology for Nuclear Energy, Beijing (China); Jiang, Guangming [Nuclear Power Institute of China, Chengdu (China). Science and Technology on Reactor System Design Technology Laboratory

    2017-06-15

    It is common to base the design of passive systems on the natural laws of physics, such as gravity, heat conduction, inertia. For AP1000, a generation-III reactor, such systems have an inherent safety associated with them due to the simplicity of their structures. However, there is a fairly large amount of uncertainty in the operating conditions of these passive safety systems. In some cases, a small deviation in the design or operating conditions can affect the function of the system. The reliability of the passive residual heat removal is analysed.

  1. Matrix-based system reliability method and applications to bridge networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, W.-H.; Song Junho; Gardoni, Paolo

    2008-01-01

    Using a matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method, one can estimate the probabilities of complex system events by simple matrix calculations. Unlike existing system reliability methods whose complexity depends highly on that of the system event, the MSR method describes any general system event in a simple matrix form and therefore provides a more convenient way of handling the system event and estimating its probability. Even in the case where one has incomplete information on the component probabilities and/or the statistical dependence thereof, the matrix-based framework enables us to estimate the narrowest bounds on the system failure probability by linear programming. This paper presents the MSR method and applies it to a transportation network consisting of bridge structures. The seismic failure probabilities of bridges are estimated by use of the predictive fragility curves developed by a Bayesian methodology based on experimental data and existing deterministic models of the seismic capacity and demand. Using the MSR method, the probability of disconnection between each city/county and a critical facility is estimated. The probability mass function of the number of failed bridges is computed as well. In order to quantify the relative importance of bridges, the MSR method is used to compute the conditional probabilities of bridge failures given that there is at least one city disconnected from the critical facility. The bounds on the probability of disconnection are also obtained for cases with incomplete information

  2. Effect of Clinically Discriminating, Evidence-Based Checklist Items on the Reliability of Scores from an Internal Medicine Residency OSCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Vijay J.; Bordage, Georges; Gierl, Mark J.; Yudkowsky, Rachel

    2014-01-01

    Objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) are used worldwide for summative examinations but often lack acceptable reliability. Research has shown that reliability of scores increases if OSCE checklists for medical students include only clinically relevant items. Also, checklists are often missing evidence-based items that high-achieving…

  3. Adaptive Reliable Routing Based on Cluster Hierarchy for Wireless Multimedia Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Lin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As a multimedia information acquisition and processing method, wireless multimedia sensor network(WMSN has great application potential in military and civilian areas. Compared with traditional wireless sensor network, the routing design of WMSN should obtain more attention on the quality of transmission. This paper proposes an adaptive reliable routing based on clustering hierarchy named ARCH, which includes energy prediction and power allocation mechanism. To obtain a better performance, the cluster structure is formed based on cellular topology. The introduced prediction mechanism makes the sensor nodes predict the remaining energy of other nodes, which dramatically reduces the overall information needed for energy balancing. ARCH can dynamically balance the energy consumption of nodes based on the predicted results provided by power allocation. The simulation results prove the efficiency of the proposed ARCH routing.

  4. Using Model Replication to Improve the Reliability of Agent-Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wei; Kim, Yushim

    The basic presupposition of model replication activities for a computational model such as an agent-based model (ABM) is that, as a robust and reliable tool, it must be replicable in other computing settings. This assumption has recently gained attention in the community of artificial society and simulation due to the challenges of model verification and validation. Illustrating the replication of an ABM representing fraudulent behavior in a public service delivery system originally developed in the Java-based MASON toolkit for NetLogo by a different author, this paper exemplifies how model replication exercises provide unique opportunities for model verification and validation process. At the same time, it helps accumulate best practices and patterns of model replication and contributes to the agenda of developing a standard methodological protocol for agent-based social simulation.

  5. Rehabilitation reliability of the road pavement structure with recycled base course with foamed bitumen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczyński, P.

    2018-05-01

    This article presents a new approach to reliability assessment of the road structure in which the base layer will be constructed in the process of cold deep recycling with foamed bitumen. In order to properly assess the reliability of the structure with the recycled base, it is necessary to determine the distribution of stress and strain in typical pavement layer systems. The true stress and strain values were established for particular structural layers using the complex modulus (E*) determined based on the master curves. The complex modulus was determined by the direct tension-compression test on cylindrical specimens (DTC-CY) at five temperatures (-7°C, 5°C, 13°C, 25°C, 40°C) and six loading times (0.1 Hz, 0.3 Hz, 1 Hz, 3 Hz, 10 Hz, 20 Hz) in accordance with EN 12697-26 in the linear viscoelasticity (LVE) range for small strains ranging from 25 to 50 με. The master curves of the complex modulus were constructed using the Richards model for the mixtures typically incorporated in structural layers, i.e., SMA11, AC16W, AC22P and MCAS. The values of the modulus characterizing particular layers were determined with temperature distribution in the structure taken into account, when the surface temperature was 40°C. The stress distribution was established for those calculation models. The stress values were used to evaluate the fatigue life under controlled stress conditions (IT-FT). This evaluation, with the controlled stress corresponding to that in the structure, facilitated the quality assessment of the rehabilitated recycled base course. Results showed that the recycled base mixtures having the indirect tensile strength (ITSDRY) similar to the stress in the structure under analysis needed an additional fatigue life evaluation in the indirect tensile test ITT. This approach to the recycled base quality assessment will allow eliminating the damage induced by overloading.

  6. Workplace-based assessment of communication skills: A pilot project addressing feasibility, acceptance and reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyers, Simone; Jemi, Iman; Karger, André; Raski, Bianca; Rotthoff, Thomas; Pentzek, Michael; Mortsiefer, Achim

    2016-01-01

    Background: Imparting communication skills has been given great importance in medical curricula. In addition to standardized assessments, students should communicate with real patients in actual clinical situations during workplace-based assessments and receive structured feedback on their performance. The aim of this project was to pilot a formative testing method for workplace-based assessment. Our investigation centered in particular on whether or not physicians view the method as feasible and how high acceptance is among students. In addition, we assessed the reliability of the method. Method: As part of the project, 16 students held two consultations each with chronically ill patients at the medical practice where they were completing GP training. These consultations were video-recorded. The trained mentoring physician rated the student’s performance and provided feedback immediately following the consultations using the Berlin Global Rating scale (BGR). Two impartial, trained raters also evaluated the videos using BGR. For qualitative and quantitative analysis, information on how physicians and students viewed feasibility and their levels of acceptance was collected in written form in a partially standardized manner. To test for reliability, the test-retest reliability was calculated for both of the overall evaluations given by each rater. The inter-rater reliability was determined for the three evaluations of each individual consultation. Results: The formative assessment method was rated positively by both physicians and students. It is relatively easy to integrate into daily routines. Its significant value lies in the personal, structured and recurring feedback. The two overall scores for each patient consultation given by the two impartial raters correlate moderately. The degree of uniformity among the three raters in respect to the individual consultations is low. Discussion: Within the scope of this pilot project, only a small sample of physicians and

  7. Workplace-based assessment of communication skills: A pilot project addressing feasibility, acceptance and reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weyers, Simone

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Imparting communication skills has been given great importance in medical curricula. In addition to standardized assessments, students should communicate with real patients in actual clinical situations during workplace-based assessments and receive structured feedback on their performance. The aim of this project was to pilot a formative testing method for workplace-based assessment. Our investigation centered in particular on whether or not physicians view the method as feasible and how high acceptance is among students. In addition, we assessed the reliability of the method.Method: As part of the project, 16 students held two consultations each with chronically ill patients at the medical practice where they were completing GP training. These consultations were video-recorded. The trained mentoring physician rated the student’s performance and provided feedback immediately following the consultations using the Berlin Global Rating scale (BGR. Two impartial, trained raters also evaluated the videos using BGR. For qualitative and quantitative analysis, information on how physicians and students viewed feasibility and their levels of acceptance was collected in written form in a partially standardized manner. To test for reliability, the test-retest reliability was calculated for both of the overall evaluations given by each rater. The inter-rater reliability was determined for the three evaluations of each individual consultation.Results: The formative assessment method was rated positively by both physicians and students. It is relatively easy to integrate into daily routines. Its significant value lies in the personal, structured and recurring feedback. The two overall scores for each patient consultation given by the two impartial raters correlate moderately. The degree of uniformity among the three raters in respect to the individual consultations is low.Discussion: Within the scope of this pilot project, only a small sample

  8. Workplace-based assessment of communication skills: A pilot project addressing feasibility, acceptance and reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyers, Simone; Jemi, Iman; Karger, André; Raski, Bianca; Rotthoff, Thomas; Pentzek, Michael; Mortsiefer, Achim

    2016-01-01

    Background: Imparting communication skills has been given great importance in medical curricula. In addition to standardized assessments, students should communicate with real patients in actual clinical situations during workplace-based assessments and receive structured feedback on their performance. The aim of this project was to pilot a formative testing method for workplace-based assessment. Our investigation centered in particular on whether or not physicians view the method as feasible and how high acceptance is among students. In addition, we assessed the reliability of the method. Method: As part of the project, 16 students held two consultations each with chronically ill patients at the medical practice where they were completing GP training. These consultations were video-recorded. The trained mentoring physician rated the student's performance and provided feedback immediately following the consultations using the Berlin Global Rating scale (BGR). Two impartial, trained raters also evaluated the videos using BGR. For qualitative and quantitative analysis, information on how physicians and students viewed feasibility and their levels of acceptance was collected in written form in a partially standardized manner. To test for reliability, the test-retest reliability was calculated for both of the overall evaluations given by each rater. The inter-rater reliability was determined for the three evaluations of each individual consultation. Results: The formative assessment method was rated positively by both physicians and students. It is relatively easy to integrate into daily routines. Its significant value lies in the personal, structured and recurring feedback. The two overall scores for each patient consultation given by the two impartial raters correlate moderately. The degree of uniformity among the three raters in respect to the individual consultations is low. Discussion: Within the scope of this pilot project, only a small sample of physicians and

  9. Failure and Maintenance Analysis Using Web-Based Reliability Database System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Seok Won; Kim, Myoung Su; Seong, Ki Yeoul; Na, Jang Hwan; Jerng, Dong Wook

    2007-01-01

    Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company has lunched the development of a database system for PSA and Maintenance Rule implementation. It focuses on the easy processing of raw data into a credible and useful database for the risk-informed environment of nuclear power plant operation and maintenance. Even though KHNP had recently completed the PSA for all domestic NPPs as a requirement of the severe accident mitigation strategy, the component failure data were only gathered as a means of quantification purposes for the relevant project. So, the data were not efficient enough for the Living PSA or other generic purposes. Another reason to build a real time database is for the newly adopted Maintenance Rule, which requests the utility to continuously monitor the plant risk based on its operation and maintenance performance. Furthermore, as one of the pre-condition for the Risk Informed Regulation and Application, the nuclear regulatory agency of Korea requests the development and management of domestic database system. KHNP is stacking up data of operation and maintenance on the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system since its first opening on July, 2003. But, so far a systematic review has not been performed to apply the component failure and maintenance history for PSA and other reliability analysis. The data stored in PUMAS before the ERP system is introduced also need to be converted and managed into the new database structure and methodology. This reliability database system is a web-based interface on a UNIX server with Oracle relational database. It is designed to be applicable for all domestic NPPs with a common database structure and the web interfaces, therefore additional program development would not be necessary for data acquisition and processing in the near future. Categorization standards for systems and components have been implemented to analyze all domestic NPPs. For example, SysCode (for a system code) and CpCode (for a component code) were newly

  10. Physics of Failure Analysis of Xilinx Flip Chip CCGA Packages: Effects of Mission Environments on Properties of LP2 Underfill and ATI Lid Adhesive Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Jong-ook

    2013-01-01

    The Xilinx Virtex 4QV and 5QV (V4 and V5) are next-generation field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) for space applications. However, there have been concerns within the space community regarding the non-hermeticity of V4/V5 packages; polymeric materials such as the underfill and lid adhesive will be directly exposed to the space environment. In this study, reliability concerns associated with the non-hermeticity of V4/V5 packages were investigated by studying properties and behavior of the underfill and the lid adhesvie materials used in V4/V5 packages.

  11. Study on Feasibility of Applying Function Approximation Moment Method to Achieve Reliability-Based Design Optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huh, Jae Sung; Kwak, Byung Man

    2011-01-01

    Robust optimization or reliability-based design optimization are some of the methodologies that are employed to take into account the uncertainties of a system at the design stage. For applying such methodologies to solve industrial problems, accurate and efficient methods for estimating statistical moments and failure probability are required, and further, the results of sensitivity analysis, which is needed for searching direction during the optimization process, should also be accurate. The aim of this study is to employ the function approximation moment method into the sensitivity analysis formulation, which is expressed as an integral form, to verify the accuracy of the sensitivity results, and to solve a typical problem of reliability-based design optimization. These results are compared with those of other moment methods, and the feasibility of the function approximation moment method is verified. The sensitivity analysis formula with integral form is the efficient formulation for evaluating sensitivity because any additional function calculation is not needed provided the failure probability or statistical moments are calculated

  12. A particle-based simplified swarm optimization algorithm for reliability redundancy allocation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Chia-Ling

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new swarm intelligence method known as the Particle-based Simplified Swarm Optimization (PSSO) algorithm while undertaking a modification of the Updating Mechanism (UM), called N-UM and R-UM, and simultaneously applying an Orthogonal Array Test (OA) to solve reliability–redundancy allocation problems (RRAPs) successfully. One difficulty of RRAP is the need to maximize system reliability in cases where the number of redundant components and the reliability of corresponding components in each subsystem are simultaneously decided with nonlinear constraints. In this paper, four RRAP benchmarks are used to display the applicability of the proposed PSSO that advances the strengths of both PSO and SSO to enable optimizing the RRAP that belongs to mixed-integer nonlinear programming. When the computational results are compared with those of previously developed algorithms in existing literature, the findings indicate that the proposed PSSO is highly competitive and performs well. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a particle-based simplified swarm optimization algorithm (PSSO) to optimize RRAP. • Furthermore, the UM and an OA are adapted to advance in optimizing RRAP. • Four systems are introduced and the results demonstrate the PSSO performs particularly well

  13. A Hybrid Approach for Reliability Analysis Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zubair, Muhammad

    2014-01-01

    By using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Bayesian Network (BN) the present research signifies the technical and non-technical issues of nuclear accidents. The study exposed that the technical faults was one major reason of these accidents. Keep an eye on other point of view it becomes clearer that human behavior like dishonesty, insufficient training, and selfishness are also play a key role to cause these accidents. In this study, a hybrid approach for reliability analysis based on AHP and BN to increase nuclear power plant (NPP) safety has been developed. By using AHP, best alternative to improve safety, design, operation, and to allocate budget for all technical and non-technical factors related with nuclear safety has been investigated. We use a special structure of BN based on the method AHP. The graphs of the BN and the probabilities associated with nodes are designed to translate the knowledge of experts on the selection of best alternative. The results show that the improvement in regulatory authorities will decrease failure probabilities and increase safety and reliability in industrial area.

  14. Accelerated Monte Carlo system reliability analysis through machine-learning-based surrogate models of network connectivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, R.E.; Song, J.; Work, D.B.

    2017-01-01

    The two-terminal reliability problem in system reliability analysis is known to be computationally intractable for large infrastructure graphs. Monte Carlo techniques can estimate the probability of a disconnection between two points in a network by selecting a representative sample of network component failure realizations and determining the source-terminal connectivity of each realization. To reduce the runtime required for the Monte Carlo approximation, this article proposes an approximate framework in which the connectivity check of each sample is estimated using a machine-learning-based classifier. The framework is implemented using both a support vector machine (SVM) and a logistic regression based surrogate model. Numerical experiments are performed on the California gas distribution network using the epicenter and magnitude of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake as well as randomly-generated earthquakes. It is shown that the SVM and logistic regression surrogate models are able to predict network connectivity with accuracies of 99% for both methods, and are 1–2 orders of magnitude faster than using a Monte Carlo method with an exact connectivity check. - Highlights: • Surrogate models of network connectivity are developed by machine-learning algorithms. • Developed surrogate models can reduce the runtime required for Monte Carlo simulations. • Support vector machine and logistic regressions are employed to develop surrogate models. • Numerical example of California gas distribution network demonstrate the proposed approach. • The developed models have accuracies 99%, and are 1–2 orders of magnitude faster than MCS.

  15. Development of reliability-based design and assessment standards for onshore gas transmission pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Joe; Rothwell, Brian [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Nessim, Maher; Zhou, Wenxing [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Onshore pipelines have traditionally been designed with a deterministic stress based methodology. The changing operating environment has however imposed many challenges to the pipeline industry, including heightened public awareness of risk, more challenging natural hazards and increased economic competitiveness. To meet the societal expectation of pipeline safety and enhance the competitiveness of the pipeline industry, significant efforts have been spent for the development of reliability-based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology. This paper will briefly review the technology development in the RBDA area and the focus will be on the progresses in the past years in standard development within the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) and the Canadian Standard Association (CSA) organizations. (author)

  16. Reliability of a treatment-based classification system for subgrouping people with low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Sharon M; Fritz, Julie M; Trombley, Andrea R; Bunn, Janice Y

    2012-09-01

    Observational, cross-sectional reliability study. To examine the interrater reliability of novice raters in their use of the treatment-based classification (TBC) system for low back pain and to explore the patterns of disagreement in classification errors. Although the interrater reliability of individual test items in the TBC system is moderate to good, some error persists in classification decision making. Understanding which classification errors are common could direct further refinement of the TBC system. Using previously recorded patient data (n = 24), 12 novice raters classified patients according to the TBC schema. These classification results were combined with those of 7 other raters, allowing examination of the overall agreement using the kappa statistic, as well as agreement/disagreement among pairwise comparisons in classification assignments. A chi-square test examined differences in percent agreement between the novice and more experienced raters and differences in classification distributions between these 2 groups of raters. Among 12 novice raters, there was 80.9% agreement in the pairs of classification (κ = 0.62; 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.65) and an overall 75.5% agreement (κ = 0.57; 95% confidence interval: 0.55, 0.69) for the combined data set. Raters were least likely to agree on a classification of stabilization (77.5% agreement). The overall percentage of pairwise classification judgments that disagreed was 24.5%, with the most common disagreement being between manipulation and stabilization (11.0%), followed by a mismatch between stabilization and specific exercise (8.2%). Additional refinement is needed to reduce rater disagreement that persists in the TBC decision-making algorithm, particularly in the stabilization category. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2012;42(9):797-805, Epub 7 June 2012. doi:10.2519/jospt.2012.4078.

  17. Flexible, Secure, and Reliable Data Sharing Service Based on Collaboration in Multicloud Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Wei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the abundant storage resources and high reliability data service of cloud computing, more individuals and enterprises are motivated to outsource their data to public cloud platform and enable legal data users to search and download what they need in the outsourced dataset. However, in “Paid Data Sharing” model, some valuable data should be encrypted before outsourcing for protecting owner’s economic benefits, which is an obstacle for flexible application. Specifically, if the owner does not know who (user will download which data files in advance and even does not know the attributes of user, he/she has to either remain online all the time or import a trusted third party (TTP to distribute the file decryption key to data user. Obviously, making the owner always remain online is too inflexible, and wholly depending on the security of TTP is a potential risk. In this paper, we propose a flexible, secure, and reliable data sharing scheme based on collaboration in multicloud environment. For securely and instantly providing data sharing service even if the owner is offline and without TTP, we distribute all encrypted split data/key blocks together to multiple cloud service providers (CSPs, respectively. An elaborate cryptographic protocol we designed helps the owner verify the correctness of data exchange bills, which is directly related to the owner’s economic benefits. Besides, in order to support reliable data service, the erasure-correcting code technic is exploited for tolerating multiple failures among CSPs, and we offer a secure keyword search mechanism that makes the system more close to reality. Extensive security analyses and experiments on real-world data show that our scheme is secure and efficient.

  18. Reliability and validity of an internet-based questionnaire measuring lifetime physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vera, Mary A; Ratzlaff, Charles; Doerfling, Paul; Kopec, Jacek

    2010-11-15

    Lifetime exposure to physical activity is an important construct for evaluating associations between physical activity and disease outcomes, given the long induction periods in many chronic diseases. The authors' objective in this study was to evaluate the measurement properties of the Lifetime Physical Activity Questionnaire (L-PAQ), a novel Internet-based, self-administered instrument measuring lifetime physical activity, among Canadian men and women in 2005-2006. Reliability was examined using a test-retest study. Validity was examined in a 2-part study consisting of 1) comparisons with previously validated instruments measuring similar constructs, the Lifetime Total Physical Activity Questionnaire (LT-PAQ) and the Chasan-Taber Physical Activity Questionnaire (CT-PAQ), and 2) a priori hypothesis tests of constructs measured by the L-PAQ. The L-PAQ demonstrated good reliability, with intraclass correlation coefficients ranging from 0.67 (household activity) to 0.89 (sports/recreation). Comparison between the L-PAQ and the LT-PAQ resulted in Spearman correlation coefficients ranging from 0.41 (total activity) to 0.71 (household activity); comparison between the L-PAQ and the CT-PAQ yielded coefficients of 0.58 (sports/recreation), 0.56 (household activity), and 0.50 (total activity). L-PAQ validity was further supported by observed relations between the L-PAQ and sociodemographic variables, consistent with a priori hypotheses. Overall, the L-PAQ is a useful instrument for assessing multiple domains of lifetime physical activity with acceptable reliability and validity.

  19. Reliability and validity of procedure-based assessments in otolaryngology training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Zaid; Hayden, Lindsay; Robson, Andrew K; Muthuswamy, Keerthini; Tolley, Neil S

    2015-06-01

    To investigate the reliability and construct validity of procedure-based assessment (PBA) in assessing performance and progress in otolaryngology training. Retrospective database analysis using a national electronic database. We analyzed PBAs of otolaryngology trainees in North London from core trainees (CTs) to specialty trainees (STs). The tool contains six multi-item domains: consent, planning, preparation, exposure/closure, technique, and postoperative care, rated as "satisfactory" or "development required," in addition to an overall performance rating (pS) of 1 to 4. Individual domain score, overall calculated score (cS), and number of "development-required" items were calculated for each PBA. Receiver operating characteristic analysis helped determine sensitivity and specificity. There were 3,152 otolaryngology PBAs from 46 otolaryngology trainees analyzed. PBA reliability was high (Cronbach's α 0.899), and sensitivity approached 99%. cS correlated positively with pS and level in training (rs : +0.681 and +0.324, respectively). ST had higher cS and pS than CT (93% ± 0.6 and 3.2 ± 0.03 vs. 71% ± 3.1 and 2.3 ± 0.08, respectively; P reliable and valid for assessing otolaryngology trainees' performance and progress at all levels. It is highly sensitive in identifying competent trainees. The tool is used in a formative and feedback capacity. The technical domain is the best predictor and should be given close attention. NA. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  20. A Reliability Test of a Complex System Based on Empirical Likelihood

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Yan; Fu, Liya; Zhang, Jun; Hui, Yongchang

    2016-01-01

    To analyze the reliability of a complex system described by minimal paths, an empirical likelihood method is proposed to solve the reliability test problem when the subsystem distributions are unknown. Furthermore, we provide a reliability test statistic of the complex system and extract the limit distribution of the test statistic. Therefore, we can obtain the confidence interval for reliability and make statistical inferences. The simulation studies also demonstrate the theorem results.

  1. A new cut-based algorithm for the multi-state flow network reliability problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, Wei-Chang; Bae, Changseok; Huang, Chia-Ling

    2015-01-01

    Many real-world systems can be modeled as multi-state network systems in which reliability can be derived in terms of the lower bound points of level d, called d-minimal cuts (d-MCs). This study proposes a new method to find and verify obtained d-MCs with simple and useful found properties for the multi-state flow network reliability problem. The proposed algorithm runs in O(mσp) time, which represents a significant improvement over the previous O(mp 2 σ) time bound based on max-flow/min-cut, where p, σ and m denote the number of MCs, d-MC candidates and edges, respectively. The proposed algorithm also conquers the weakness of some existing methods, which failed to remove duplicate d-MCs in special cases. A step-by-step example is given to demonstrate how the proposed algorithm locates and verifies all d-MC candidates. As evidence of the utility of the proposed approach, we present extensive computational results on 20 benchmark networks in another example. The computational results compare favorably with a previously developed algorithm in the literature. - Highlights: • A new method is proposed to find all d-MCs for the multi-state flow networks. • The proposed method can prevent the generation of d-MC duplicates. • The proposed method is simpler and more efficient than the best-known algorithms

  2. A Compact Forearm Crutch Based on Force Sensors for Aided Gait: Reliability and Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamorro-Moriana, Gema; Sevillano, José Luis; Ridao-Fernández, Carmen

    2016-06-21

    Frequently, patients who suffer injuries in some lower member require forearm crutches in order to partially unload weight-bearing. These lesions cause pain in lower limb unloading and their progression should be controlled objectively to avoid significant errors in accuracy and, consequently, complications and after effects in lesions. The design of a new and feasible tool that allows us to control and improve the accuracy of loads exerted on crutches during aided gait is necessary, so as to unburden the lower limbs. In this paper, we describe such a system based on a force sensor, which we have named the GCH System 2.0. Furthermore, we determine the validity and reliability of measurements obtained using this tool via a comparison with the validated AMTI (Advanced Mechanical Technology, Inc., Watertown, MA, USA) OR6-7-2000 Platform. An intra-class correlation coefficient demonstrated excellent agreement between the AMTI Platform and the GCH System. A regression line to determine the predictive ability of the GCH system towards the AMTI Platform was found, which obtained a precision of 99.3%. A detailed statistical analysis is presented for all the measurements and also segregated for several requested loads on the crutches (10%, 25% and 50% of body weight). Our results show that our system, designed for assessing loads exerted by patients on forearm crutches during assisted gait, provides valid and reliable measurements of loads.

  3. A Compact Forearm Crutch Based on Force Sensors for Aided Gait: Reliability and Validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gema Chamorro-Moriana

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Frequently, patients who suffer injuries in some lower member require forearm crutches in order to partially unload weight-bearing. These lesions cause pain in lower limb unloading and their progression should be controlled objectively to avoid significant errors in accuracy and, consequently, complications and after effects in lesions. The design of a new and feasible tool that allows us to control and improve the accuracy of loads exerted on crutches during aided gait is necessary, so as to unburden the lower limbs. In this paper, we describe such a system based on a force sensor, which we have named the GCH System 2.0. Furthermore, we determine the validity and reliability of measurements obtained using this tool via a comparison with the validated AMTI (Advanced Mechanical Technology, Inc., Watertown, MA, USA OR6-7-2000 Platform. An intra-class correlation coefficient demonstrated excellent agreement between the AMTI Platform and the GCH System. A regression line to determine the predictive ability of the GCH system towards the AMTI Platform was found, which obtained a precision of 99.3%. A detailed statistical analysis is presented for all the measurements and also segregated for several requested loads on the crutches (10%, 25% and 50% of body weight. Our results show that our system, designed for assessing loads exerted by patients on forearm crutches during assisted gait, provides valid and reliable measurements of loads.

  4. Determine the optimal carrier selection for a logistics network based on multi-commodity reliability criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Kuei; Yeh, Cheng-Ta

    2013-05-01

    From the perspective of supply chain management, the selected carrier plays an important role in freight delivery. This article proposes a new criterion of multi-commodity reliability and optimises the carrier selection based on such a criterion for logistics networks with routes and nodes, over which multiple commodities are delivered. Carrier selection concerns the selection of exactly one carrier to deliver freight on each route. The capacity of each carrier has several available values associated with a probability distribution, since some of a carrier's capacity may be reserved for various orders. Therefore, the logistics network, given any carrier selection, is a multi-commodity multi-state logistics network. Multi-commodity reliability is defined as a probability that the logistics network can satisfy a customer's demand for various commodities, and is a performance indicator for freight delivery. To solve this problem, this study proposes an optimisation algorithm that integrates genetic algorithm, minimal paths and Recursive Sum of Disjoint Products. A practical example in which multi-sized LCD monitors are delivered from China to Germany is considered to illustrate the solution procedure.

  5. Maintenance strategy based on reliability functions for an oil centrifugal pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Carlos Mengue

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article was to define the most appropriate maintenance strategy for a centrifugal pump (preventive, predictive, corrective or emergency, based on reliability calculation. The research method was the quantitative modeling, applied in a petroleum plant. The study may contribute to the development of a strategic model for the management of the industrial plant maintenance. In the company's information system, records of eleven years have been gathered on times between failures and times for repair of the equipment. These times were modeled by probability distributions. From the results obtained were calculated Reliability and Maintainability functions R(t and M(t. By combining their expected values (MTBF and MTTR, Av availability was calculated. The figures for MTBF, MTTR and Av were respectively 3,936 hours, 133 hours and 96.73%. The most likely shape factor of the Weibull distribution which modeled the time between failures was 0.69. So, it was possible to affirm that the pump is in the infant mortality phase. The theoretical framework of RCM indicated corrective  maintenance as the strategy for the item. This strategy aims to eliminate the defects of equipment design, reinforce items that usually break and remove the causes of the failures.

  6. Reliability-based assessment of flow assurance of hot waxy crude pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jinjun, Zhang; Wenke, Zhang; Jianlin, Ding; Bo, Yu [China University of Petroleum - Beijing (CUPB), Beijing (China)

    2009-07-01

    Waxy crude is characterized by its high pour point. Pipeline blockage may occur after prolonged shutdown of a pipeline due to crude oil gelation. Another flow assurance problem is the instable operation at a flow rate below the lowest allowable operation flow rate which is dependent on heat transfer of the pipeline and the viscosity vs. temperature relation of the crude pumped. Besides, for pipelines with thick wax deposition layer, massive depletion of wax deposit in some cases such as pipeline restart at high expelling pressure may also result in blockage of the pipeline, and the pig may be jammed during pigging as a result of thick wax deposition. Conventionally, assessment of these risks has been made by using the deterministic approach. However, many related physical quantities are subject to uncertainty and contribute to reliability of flow assurance. Therefore, the probabilistic approach is suggested and a framework of reliability based assessment of flow assurance of waxy crude pipelines is proposed in this paper. Discussions are also made on the limit state functions and target safety level. In the future study, development of an efficient and robust stochastic-numerical method is crucial. (author)

  7. Reliable and redundant FPGA based read-out design in the ATLAS TileCal Demonstrator

    CERN Document Server

    Åkerstedt, Henrik; The ATLAS collaboration; Drake, Gary; Anderson, Kelby; Bohm, Christian; Oreglia, Mark; Tang, Fukun

    2015-01-01

    The Tile Calorimeter at ATLAS is a hadron calorimeter based on steel plates and scintillating tiles read out by PMTs. The current read-out system uses standard ADCs and custom ASICs to digitize and temporarily store the data on the detector. However, only a subset of the data is actually read out to the counting room. The on-detector electronics will be replaced around 2023. To achieve the required reliability the upgraded system will be highly redundant. Here the ASICs will be replaced with Kintex-7 FPGAs from Xilinx. This, in addition to the use of multiple 10 Gbps optical read-out links, will allow a full read-out of all detector data. Due to the higher radiation levels expected when the beam luminosity is increased, opportunities for repairs will be less frequent. The circuitry and firmware must therefore be designed for sufficiently high reliability using redundancy and radiation tolerant components. Within a year, a hybrid demonstrator including the new read-out system will be installed in one slice of ...

  8. Improving reliability of state estimation programming and computing suite based on analyzing a fault tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolosok Irina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable information on the current state parameters obtained as a result of processing the measurements from systems of the SCADA and WAMS data acquisition and processing through methods of state estimation (SE is a condition that enables to successfully manage an energy power system (EPS. SCADA and WAMS systems themselves, as any technical systems, are subject to failures and faults that lead to distortion and loss of information. The SE procedure enables to find erroneous measurements, therefore, it is a barrier for the distorted information to penetrate into control problems. At the same time, the programming and computing suite (PCS implementing the SE functions may itself provide a wrong decision due to imperfection of the software algorithms and errors. In this study, we propose to use a fault tree to analyze consequences of failures and faults in SCADA and WAMS and in the very SE procedure. Based on the analysis of the obtained measurement information and on the SE results, we determine the state estimation PCS fault tolerance level featuring its reliability.

  9. Three dimensional quantitative coronary angiography can detect reliably ischemic coronary lesions based on fractional flow reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Woo-Young; Choi, Byoung-Joo; Lim, Seong-Hoon; Matsuo, Yoshiki; Lennon, Ryan J; Gulati, Rajiv; Sandhu, Gurpreet S; Holmes, David R; Rihal, Charanjit S; Lerman, Amir

    2015-06-01

    Conventional coronary angiography (CAG) has limitations in evaluating lesions producing ischemia. Three dimensional quantitative coronary angiography (3D-QCA) shows reconstructed images of CAG using computer based algorithm, the Cardio-op B system (Paieon Medical, Rosh Ha'ayin, Israel). The aim of this study was to evaluate whether 3D-QCA can reliably predict ischemia assessed by myocardial fractional flow reserve (FFR) < 0.80. 3D-QCA images were reconstructed from CAG which also were evaluated with FFR to assess ischemia. Minimal luminal diameter (MLD), percent diameter stenosis (%DS), minimal luminal area (MLA), and percent area stenosis (%AS) were obtained. The results of 3D-QCA and FFR were compared. A total of 266 patients was enrolled for the present study. FFR for all lesions ranged from 0.57 to 1.00 (0.85 ± 0.09). Measurement of MLD, %DS, MLA, and %AS all were significantly correlated with FFR (r = 0.569, 0609, 0.569, 0.670, respectively, all P < 0.001). In lesions with MLA < 4.0 mm(2), %AS of more than 65.5% had a 80% sensitivity and a 83% specificity to predict FFR < 0.80 (area under curve, AUC was 0.878). 3D-QCA can reliably predict coronary lesions producing ischemia and may be used to guide therapeutic approach for coronary artery disease.

  10. A comparison of manual anthropometric measurements with Kinect-based scanned measurements in terms of precision and reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragança, Sara; Arezes, Pedro; Carvalho, Miguel; Ashdown, Susan P; Castellucci, Ignacio; Leão, Celina

    2018-01-01

    Collecting anthropometric data for real-life applications demands a high degree of precision and reliability. It is important to test new equipment that will be used for data collectionOBJECTIVE:Compare two anthropometric data gathering techniques - manual methods and a Kinect-based 3D body scanner - to understand which of them gives more precise and reliable results. The data was collected using a measuring tape and a Kinect-based 3D body scanner. It was evaluated in terms of precision by considering the regular and relative Technical Error of Measurement and in terms of reliability by using the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, Reliability Coefficient, Standard Error of Measurement and Coefficient of Variation. The results obtained showed that both methods presented better results for reliability than for precision. Both methods showed relatively good results for these two variables, however, manual methods had better results for some body measurements. Despite being considered sufficiently precise and reliable for certain applications (e.g. apparel industry), the 3D scanner tested showed, for almost every anthropometric measurement, a different result than the manual technique. Many companies design their products based on data obtained from 3D scanners, hence, understanding the precision and reliability of the equipment used is essential to obtain feasible results.

  11. Optimal reliability design for over-actuated systems based on the MIT rule: Application to an octocopter helicopter testbed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamseddine, Abbas; Theilliol, Didier; Sadeghzadeh, Iman; Zhang, Youmin; Weber, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of optimal reliability in over-actuated systems. Overloading an actuator decreases its overall lifetime and reduces its average performance over a long time. Therefore, performance and reliability are two conflicting requirements. While appropriate reliability is related to average loads, good performance is related to fast response and sufficient loads generated by actuators. Actuator redundancy allows us to address both performance and reliability at the same time by properly allocating desired loads among redundant actuators. The main contribution of this paper is the on-line optimization of the overall plant reliability according to performance objective using an MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) rule-based method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated through an experimental application to an octocopter helicopter testbed

  12. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  13. Method of reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and fuzzy math in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhaobing; Deng Jian; Cao Xuewu

    2005-01-01

    Reliability allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. It can not only be applied to determine the reliability characteristic of reactor systems, subsystem and main components but also be performed to improve the design, operation and maintenance of nuclear plants. The fuzzy math known as one of the powerful tools for fuzzy optimization and the fault analysis deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis can be applied to the reliability allocation model so as to work out the problems of fuzzy characteristic of some factors and subsystem's choice respectively in this paper. Thus we develop a failure rate allocation model on the basis of the fault tree analysis and fuzzy math. For the choice of the reliability constraint factors, we choose the six important ones according to practical need for conducting the reliability allocation. The subsystem selected by the top-level fault tree analysis is to avoid allocating reliability for all the equipment and components including the unnecessary parts. During the reliability process, some factors can be calculated or measured quantitatively while others only can be assessed qualitatively by the expert rating method. So we adopt fuzzy decision and dualistic contrast to realize the reliability allocation with the help of fault tree analysis. Finally the example of the emergency diesel generator's reliability allocation is used to illustrate reliability allocation model and improve this model simple and applicable. (authors)

  14. Use of knowledge based systems for rational reliability analysis based inspection and maintenance planning for offshore structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, M.X.; Dharmavasan, S.; Peers, S.M.C.

    1994-01-01

    The structural integrity of fixed offshore platforms is ensured by periodic inspections. In the past, decisions made as to when, where and how to inspect have been made by engineers using rules-of-thumb and general planning heuristics. It is now hoped that more rational inspection and maintenance scheduling may be carried out by applying recently developed techniques based on structural reliability methods. However, one of the problems associated with a theoretical approach is that it is not always possible to incorporate all the constraints that are present in a practical situation. These constraints modify the decisions made for analysis data input and the interpretation of the analysis results. Knowledge based systems provide a mean of encapsulating several different forms of information and knowledge within a computer system and hence can overcome this problem. In this paper, a prototype system being developed for integrating reliability based analysis with other constraints for inspection scheduling will be described. In addition, the scheduling model and the algorithms to carry out the scheduling will be explained. Furthermore, implementation details are also given

  15. The Global Optimal Algorithm of Reliable Path Finding Problem Based on Backtracking Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Shen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing interest in finding a global optimal path in transportation networks particularly when the network suffers from unexpected disturbance. This paper studies the problem of finding a global optimal path to guarantee a given probability of arriving on time in a network with uncertainty, in which the travel time is stochastic instead of deterministic. Traditional path finding methods based on least expected travel time cannot capture the network user’s risk-taking behaviors in path finding. To overcome such limitation, the reliable path finding algorithms have been proposed but the convergence of global optimum is seldom addressed in the literature. This paper integrates the K-shortest path algorithm into Backtracking method to propose a new path finding algorithm under uncertainty. The global optimum of the proposed method can be guaranteed. Numerical examples are conducted to demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

  16. Limits to the reliability of size-based fishing status estimation for data-poor stocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokkalis, Alexandros; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Nielsen, Anders

    2015-01-01

    For stocks which are considered “data-poor” no knowledge exist about growth, mortality or recruitment. The only available information is from catches. Here we examine the ability to assess the level of exploitation of a data-poor stock based only on information of the size of individuals in catches....... The model is a formulation of the classic Beverton–Holt theory in terms of size where stock parameters describing growth, natural mortality, recruitment, etc. are determined from life-history invariants. A simulation study was used to compare the reliability of assessments performed under different...... to a considerable improvement in the assessment. Overall, the simulation study demonstrates that it may be possible to classify a data-poor stock as undergoing over- or under-fishing, while the exact status, i.e., how much the fishing mortality is above or below Fmsy, can only be assessed with a substantial...

  17. Impact of Loss Synchronization on Reliable High Speed Networks: A Model Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary nature of network evolution demands for simulation models which are flexible, scalable, and easily implementable. In this paper, we propose a fluid based model for performance analysis of reliable high speed networks. In particular, this paper aims to study the dynamic relationship between congestion control algorithms and queue management schemes, in order to develop a better understanding of the causal linkages between the two. We propose a loss synchronization module which is user configurable. We validate our model through simulations under controlled settings. Also, we present a performance analysis to provide insights into two important issues concerning 10 Gbps high speed networks: (i impact of bottleneck buffer size on the performance of 10 Gbps high speed network and (ii impact of level of loss synchronization on link utilization-fairness tradeoffs. The practical impact of the proposed work is to provide design guidelines along with a powerful simulation tool to protocol designers and network developers.

  18. Improved mechanical reliability of MEMS electret based vibration energy harvesters for automotive applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud, M; Goedbloed, M; De Nooijer, C; Van Schaijk, R; Fujita, T

    2014-01-01

    Current commercial wireless tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS) require a battery as electrical power source. The battery limits the lifetime of the TPMS. This limit can be circumvented by replacing the battery by a vibration energy harvester. Autonomous wireless TPMS powered by MEMS electret based vibration energy harvester have been demonstrated. A remaining technical challenge to attain the grade of commercial product with these autonomous TPMS is the mechanical reliability of the MEMS harvester. It should survive the harsh conditions imposed by the tire environment, particularly in terms of mechanical shocks. As shown in this article, our first generation of harvesters has a shock resilience of 400 g, which is far from being sufficient for the targeted application. In order to improve this aspect, several types of shock absorbing structures are investigated. With the best proposed solution, the shock resilience of the harvesters is brought above 2500 g

  19. Reliability and applications of statistical methods based on oligonucleotide frequencies in bacterial and archaeal genomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohlin, J; Skjerve, E; Ussery, David

    2008-01-01

    with here are mainly used to examine similarities between archaeal and bacterial DNA from different genomes. These methods compare observed genomic frequencies of fixed-sized oligonucleotides with expected values, which can be determined by genomic nucleotide content, smaller oligonucleotide frequencies......, or be based on specific statistical distributions. Advantages with these statistical methods include measurements of phylogenetic relationship with relatively small pieces of DNA sampled from almost anywhere within genomes, detection of foreign/conserved DNA, and homology searches. Our aim was to explore...... the reliability and best suited applications for some popular methods, which include relative oligonucleotide frequencies (ROF), di- to hexanucleotide zero'th order Markov methods (ZOM) and 2.order Markov chain Method (MCM). Tests were performed on distant homology searches with large DNA sequences, detection...

  20. Comparative analysis of different configurations of PLC-based safety systems from reliability point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia, Moiez A.

    1993-01-01

    The study of a comparative analysis of distinct multiplex and fault-tolerant configurations for a PLC-based safety system from a reliability point of view is presented. It considers simplex, duplex and fault-tolerant triple redundancy configurations. The standby unit in case of a duplex configuration has a failure rate which is k times the failure rate of the standby unit, the value of k varying from 0 to 1. For distinct values of MTTR and MTTF of the main unit, MTBF and availability for these configurations are calculated. The effect of duplexing only the PLC module or only the sensors and the actuators module, on the MTBF of the configuration, is also presented. The results are summarized and merits and demerits of various configurations under distinct environments are discussed.

  1. Reliability Quantification Method for Safety Critical Software Based on a Finite Test Set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Sung Min; Kim, Hee Eun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Lee, Seung Jun

    2014-01-01

    Software inside of digitalized system have very important role because it may cause irreversible consequence and affect the whole system as common cause failure. However, test-based reliability quantification method for some safety critical software has limitations caused by difficulties in developing input sets as a form of trajectory which is series of successive values of variables. To address these limitations, this study proposed another method which conduct the test using combination of single values of variables. To substitute the trajectory form of input using combination of variables, the possible range of each variable should be identified. For this purpose, assigned range of each variable, logical relations between variables, plant dynamics under certain situation, and characteristics of obtaining information of digital device are considered. A feasibility of the proposed method was confirmed through an application to the Reactor Protection System (RPS) software trip logic

  2. Reliability-based design optimization using a generalized subset simulation method and posterior approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yuan-Zhuo; Li, Hong-Shuang; Yao, Wei-Xing

    2018-05-01

    The evaluation of the probabilistic constraints in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems has always been significant and challenging work, which strongly affects the performance of RBDO methods. This article deals with RBDO problems using a recently developed generalized subset simulation (GSS) method and a posterior approximation approach. The posterior approximation approach is used to transform all the probabilistic constraints into ordinary constraints as in deterministic optimization. The assessment of multiple failure probabilities required by the posterior approximation approach is achieved by GSS in a single run at all supporting points, which are selected by a proper experimental design scheme combining Sobol' sequences and Bucher's design. Sequentially, the transformed deterministic design optimization problem can be solved by optimization algorithms, for example, the sequential quadratic programming method. Three optimization problems are used to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

  3. A support vector density-based importance sampling for reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, Hongzhe; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Wei

    2012-01-01

    An importance sampling method based on the adaptive Markov chain simulation and support vector density estimation is developed in this paper for efficient structural reliability assessment. The methodology involves the generation of samples that can adaptively populate the important region by the adaptive Metropolis algorithm, and the construction of importance sampling density by support vector density. The use of the adaptive Metropolis algorithm may effectively improve the convergence and stability of the classical Markov chain simulation. The support vector density can approximate the sampling density with fewer samples in comparison to the conventional kernel density estimation. The proposed importance sampling method can effectively reduce the number of structural analysis required for achieving a given accuracy. Examples involving both numerical and practical structural problems are given to illustrate the application and efficiency of the proposed methodology.

  4. Managing wind turbine reliability and maintenance via performance-based contract

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jin, Tongdan; Ding, Yi; Guo, Huairui

    2012-01-01

    between system cost, reliability and spare parts stocking. This analytical insight into the system performance allows the turbine manufacturer to optimize design, production, and after-sales services. The study aims to create a theoretical basis to facilitate the transition of the maintenance paradigm......Performance-based contracting (PBC) is reshaping the acquisition, operation, and maintenance of capital equipment. Under the PBC scheme, we propose a holistic approach for lowering the cost of wind turbine ownership while meeting the availability requirement. Our effects are focused on integrated...... firms who design and market wind turbines, and also provide maintenance and repair service. PBC differs from conventional service contracts in that the wind farmers compensate the service provider for the system performance, not the spare parts and repair labor. We explore the analytical relationship...

  5. Link reliability based hybrid routing for tactical mobile ad hoc network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Xiaochuan; Wei Gang; Wu Keping; Wang Gang; Jia Shilou

    2008-01-01

    Tactical mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a collection of mobile nodes forming a temporary network,without the aid of pre-established network infrastructure. The routing protocol has a crucial impact on the networkperformance in battlefields. Link reliability based hybrid routing (LRHR) is proposed, which is a novel hybrid routing protocol, for tactical MANET. Contrary to the traditional single path routing strategy, multiple paths are established between a pair of source-destination nodes. In the hybrid routing strategy, the rate of topological change provides a natural mechanism for switching dynamically between table-driven and on-demand routing. The simulation results indicate that the performances of the protocol in packet delivery ratio, routing overhead, and average end-to-end delay are better than the conventional routing protocol.

  6. Design and implementation of reliability evaluation of SAS hard disk based on RAID card

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Shaohua; Han, Sen

    2015-10-01

    Because of the huge advantage of RAID technology in storage, it has been widely used. However, the question associated with this technology is that the hard disk based on the RAID card can not be queried by Operating System. Therefore how to read the self-information and log data of hard disk has been a problem, while this data is necessary for reliability test of hard disk. In traditional way, this information can be read just suitable for SATA hard disk, but not for SAS hard disk. In this paper, we provide a method by using LSI RAID card's Application Program Interface, communicating with RAID card and analyzing the feedback data to solve the problem. Then we will get the necessary information to assess the SAS hard disk.

  7. Gradient-based reliability maps for ACM-based segmentation of hippocampus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarpalas, Dimitrios; Gkontra, Polyxeni; Daras, Petros; Maglaveras, Nicos

    2014-04-01

    Automatic segmentation of deep brain structures, such as the hippocampus (HC), in MR images has attracted considerable scientific attention due to the widespread use of MRI and to the principal role of some structures in various mental disorders. In this literature, there exists a substantial amount of work relying on deformable models incorporating prior knowledge about structures' anatomy and shape information. However, shape priors capture global shape characteristics and thus fail to model boundaries of varying properties; HC boundaries present rich, poor, and missing gradient regions. On top of that, shape prior knowledge is blended with image information in the evolution process, through global weighting of the two terms, again neglecting the spatially varying boundary properties, causing segmentation faults. An innovative method is hereby presented that aims to achieve highly accurate HC segmentation in MR images, based on the modeling of boundary properties at each anatomical location and the inclusion of appropriate image information for each of those, within an active contour model framework. Hence, blending of image information and prior knowledge is based on a local weighting map, which mixes gradient information, regional and whole brain statistical information with a multi-atlas-based spatial distribution map of the structure's labels. Experimental results on three different datasets demonstrate the efficacy and accuracy of the proposed method.

  8. A Hierarchical Reliability Control Method for a Space Manipulator Based on the Strategy of Autonomous Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Gao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to maintain and enhance the operational reliability of a robotic manipulator deployed in space, an operational reliability system control method is presented in this paper. First, a method to divide factors affecting the operational reliability is proposed, which divides the operational reliability factors into task-related factors and cost-related factors. Then the models describing the relationships between the two kinds of factors and control variables are established. Based on this, a multivariable and multiconstraint optimization model is constructed. Second, a hierarchical system control model which incorporates the operational reliability factors is constructed. The control process of the space manipulator is divided into three layers: task planning, path planning, and motion control. Operational reliability related performance parameters are measured and used as the system’s feedback. Taking the factors affecting the operational reliability into consideration, the system can autonomously decide which control layer of the system should be optimized and how to optimize it using a control level adjustment decision module. The operational reliability factors affect these three control levels in the form of control variable constraints. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve a greater probability of meeting the task accuracy requirements, while extending the expected lifetime of the space manipulator.

  9. Web-based phenotyping for Tourette Syndrome: Reliability of common co-morbid diagnoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darrow, Sabrina M; Illmann, Cornelia; Gauvin, Caitlin; Osiecki, Lisa; Egan, Crystelle A; Greenberg, Erica; Eckfield, Monika; Hirschtritt, Matthew E; Pauls, David L; Batterson, James R; Berlin, Cheston M; Malaty, Irene A; Woods, Douglas W; Scharf, Jeremiah M; Mathews, Carol A

    2015-08-30

    Collecting phenotypic data necessary for genetic analyses of neuropsychiatric disorders is time consuming and costly. Development of web-based phenotype assessments would greatly improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of genetic research. However, evaluating the reliability of this approach compared to standard, in-depth clinical interviews is essential. The current study replicates and extends a preliminary report on the utility of a web-based screen for Tourette Syndrome (TS) and common comorbid diagnoses (obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)). A subset of individuals who completed a web-based phenotyping assessment for a TS genetic study was invited to participate in semi-structured diagnostic clinical interviews. The data from these interviews were used to determine participants' diagnostic status for TS, OCD, and ADHD using best estimate procedures, which then served as the gold standard to compare diagnoses assigned using web-based screen data. The results show high rates of agreement for TS. Kappas for OCD and ADHD diagnoses were also high and together demonstrate the utility of this self-report data in comparison previous diagnoses from clinicians and dimensional assessment methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Cloud-based calculators for fast and reliable access to NOAA's geomagnetic field models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, A.; Nair, M. C.; Boneh, N.; Chulliat, A.

    2017-12-01

    While the Global Positioning System (GPS) provides accurate point locations, it does not provide pointing directions. Therefore, the absolute directional information provided by the Earth's magnetic field is of primary importance for navigation and for the pointing of technical devices such as aircrafts, satellites and lately, mobile phones. The major magnetic sources that affect compass-based navigation are the Earth's core, its magnetized crust and the electric currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. NOAA/CIRES Geomagnetism (ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/) group develops and distributes models that describe all these important sources to aid navigation. Our geomagnetic models are used in variety of platforms including airplanes, ships, submarines and smartphones. While the magnetic field from Earth's core can be described in relatively fewer parameters and is suitable for offline computation, the magnetic sources from Earth's crust, ionosphere and magnetosphere require either significant computational resources or real-time capabilities and are not suitable for offline calculation. This is especially important for small navigational devices or embedded systems, where computational resources are limited. Recognizing the need for a fast and reliable access to our geomagnetic field models, we developed cloud-based application program interfaces (APIs) for NOAA's ionospheric and magnetospheric magnetic field models. In this paper we will describe the need for reliable magnetic calculators, the challenges faced in running geomagnetic field models in the cloud in real-time and the feedback from our user community. We discuss lessons learned harvesting and validating the data which powers our cloud services, as well as our strategies for maintaining near real-time service, including load-balancing, real-time monitoring, and instance cloning. We will also briefly talk about the progress we achieved on NOAA's Big Earth Data Initiative (BEDI) funded project to develop API

  11. Reliability-based fatigue life estimation of shear riveted connections considering dependency of rivet hole failures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonetti* Davide

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Standards and guidelines for the fatigue design of riveted connections make use of a stress range-endurance (S-N curve based on the net section stress range regardless of the number and the position of the rivets. Almost all tests on which S-N curves are based, are performed with a minimum number of rivets. However, the number of rivets in a row is expected to increase the fail-safe behaviour of the connection, whereas the number of rows is supposed to decrease the theoretical stress concentration at the critical locations, and hence these aspects are not considered in the S-N curves. This paper presents a numerical model predicting the fatigue life of riveted connections by performing a system reliability analysis on a double cover plated riveted butt joint. The connection is considered in three geometries, with different number of rivets in a row and different number of rows. The stress state in the connection is evaluated using a finite element model in which the friction coefficient and the clamping force in the rivets are considered in a deterministic manner. The probability of failure is evaluated for the main plate, and fatigue failure is assumed to be originating at the sides of the rivet holes, the critical locations, or hot-spots. The notch stress approach is applied to assess the fatigue life, considered to be a stochastic quantity. Unlike other system reliability models available in the literature, the evaluation of the probability of failure takes into account the stochastic dependence between the failures at each critical location modelled as a parallel system, which means considering the change of the state of stress in the connection when a ligament between two rivets fails. A sensitivity study is performed to evaluate the effect of the pretension in the rivet and the friction coefficient on the fatigue life.

  12. Evaluation of piping reliability and failure data for use in risk-based inspections of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, V. de; Soares, W.A.; Costa, A.C.L. da; Rabello, E.G.; Marques, R.O., E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    During operation of industrial facilities, components and systems can deteriorate over time, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves inspection planning based on information about risks, through assessing of probability and consequence of failures. In-service inspections are used in nuclear power plants, in order to ensure reliable and safe operation. Traditional deterministic inspection approaches investigate generic degradation mechanisms on all systems. However, operating experience indicates that degradation occurs where there are favorable conditions for developing a specific mechanism. Inspections should be prioritized at these places. Risk-Informed In-service Inspections (RI-ISI) are types of RBI that use Probabilistic Safety Assessment results, increasing reliability and plant safety, and reducing radiation exposure. These assessments use both available generic reliability and failure data, as well as plant specific information. This paper proposes a method for evaluating piping reliability and failure data important for RI-ISI programs, as well as the techniques involved. (author)

  13. The Mentalization-Based Therapy Adherence and Quality Scale (MBT-AQS): Reliability in a clinical setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Sebastian; Juul, Sophie; Kongerslev, Mickey

    2018-01-01

    The Mentalization-Based Treatment Adherence and Quality Scale (MBT-AQS) is a 17-item measure of treatment adherence and quality of individual mentalization-based therapy (MBT). Until now, reliability research on the scale has primarily been conducted by highly experienced raters from the Norwegian...... MBT therapists in a clinical setting following a brief one-day training course. The overall reliabilities for six raters were good for adherence (.67) and for quality (.62). Thus, the MBT-AQS was found to be an appropriate MBT adherence rating instrument with clinical and educational utility outside...... MBT Quality Lab who were part of its development. Hence, it can be questioned whether only experts in research settings can achieve satisfying levels of reliability on the scale. In this study, we investigated whether a satisfying level of reliability on the MBT-AQS could be obtained by experienced...

  14. Evaluation of piping reliability and failure data for use in risk-based inspections of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, V. de; Soares, W.A.; Costa, A.C.L. da; Rabello, E.G.; Marques, R.O.

    2016-01-01

    During operation of industrial facilities, components and systems can deteriorate over time, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves inspection planning based on information about risks, through assessing of probability and consequence of failures. In-service inspections are used in nuclear power plants, in order to ensure reliable and safe operation. Traditional deterministic inspection approaches investigate generic degradation mechanisms on all systems. However, operating experience indicates that degradation occurs where there are favorable conditions for developing a specific mechanism. Inspections should be prioritized at these places. Risk-Informed In-service Inspections (RI-ISI) are types of RBI that use Probabilistic Safety Assessment results, increasing reliability and plant safety, and reducing radiation exposure. These assessments use both available generic reliability and failure data, as well as plant specific information. This paper proposes a method for evaluating piping reliability and failure data important for RI-ISI programs, as well as the techniques involved. (author)

  15. How Case-Based Reasoning on e-Community Knowledge Can Be Improved Thanks to Knowledge Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Gaillard , Emmanuelle; Lieber , Jean; Nauer , Emmanuel; Cordier , Amélie

    2014-01-01

    International audience; This paper shows that performing case-based reasoning (CBR) on knowledge coming from an e-community is improved by taking into account knowledge reliability. MKM (meta-knowledge model) is a model for managing reliability of the knowledge units that are used in the reasoning process. For this, MKM uses meta-knowledge such as belief, trust and reputation, about knowledge units and users. MKM is used both to select relevant knowledge to conduct the reasoning process, and ...

  16. DESIGN OF WATER-COOLED PACKAGED AIR-CONDITIONING SYSTEMS BASED ON RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    関口, 圭輔; 中尾, 正喜; 藁谷, 至誠; 植草, 常雄; 羽山, 広文

    2007-01-01

    Water-cooled packaged air-conditioning systems are reevaluated in terms of alleviating the heat island phenomenon in cities and effectively utilizing building rooftops. Up to now, such reliability assessment has been insufficient, and this has limited the use of this kind of air-conditioning system in the information and communications sectors that demand a high reliability. This work has led to the development of a model for evaluating the reliability of water-cooled package air-conditioning...

  17. Polarimetric SAR interferometry-based decomposition modelling for reliable scattering retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Neeraj; Kumar, Shashi; Tolpekin, Valentyn

    2016-05-01

    Fully Polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) data is used for scattering information retrieval from single SAR resolution cell. Single SAR resolution cell may contain contribution from more than one scattering objects. Hence, single or dual polarized data does not provide all the possible scattering information. So, to overcome this problem fully Polarimetric data is used. It was observed in previous study that fully Polarimetric data of different dates provide different scattering values for same object and coefficient of determination obtained from linear regression between volume scattering and aboveground biomass (AGB) shows different values for the SAR dataset of different dates. Scattering values are important input elements for modelling of forest aboveground biomass. In this research work an approach is proposed to get reliable scattering from interferometric pair of fully Polarimetric RADARSAT-2 data. The field survey for data collection was carried out for Barkot forest during November 10th to December 5th, 2014. Stratified random sampling was used to collect field data for circumference at breast height (CBH) and tree height measurement. Field-measured AGB was compared with the volume scattering elements obtained from decomposition modelling of individual PolSAR images and PolInSAR coherency matrix. Yamaguchi 4-component decomposition was implemented to retrieve scattering elements from SAR data. PolInSAR based decomposition was the great challenge in this work and it was implemented with certain assumptions to create Hermitian coherency matrix with co-registered polarimetric interferometric pair of SAR data. Regression analysis between field-measured AGB and volume scattering element obtained from PolInSAR data showed highest (0.589) coefficient of determination. The same regression with volume scattering elements of individual SAR images showed 0.49 and 0.50 coefficients of determination for master and slave images respectively. This study recommends use of

  18. Reliability of mechanisms with periodic random modal frequencies using an extreme value-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savage, Gordon J.; Zhang, Xufang; Son, Young Kap; Pandey, Mahesh D.

    2016-01-01

    Resonance in a dynamic system is to be avoided since it often leads to impaired performance, overstressing, fatigue fracture and adverse human reactions. Thus, it is necessary to know the modal frequencies and ensure they do not coincide with any applied periodic loadings. For a rotating planar mechanism, the coefficients in the mass and stiffness matrices are periodically varying, and if the underlying geometry and material properties are treated as random variables then the modal frequencies are both position-dependent and probabilistic. The avoidance of resonance is now a complex problem. Herein, free vibration analysis helps determine ranges of modal frequencies that in turn, identify the running speeds of the mechanism to be avoided. This paper presents an efficient and accurate sample-based approach to determine probabilistic minimum and maximum extremes of the fundamental frequencies and the angular positions of their occurrence. Then, given critical lower and upper frequency constraints it is straightforward to determine reliability in terms of probability of exceedance. The novelty of the proposed approach is that the original expensive and implicit mechanistic model is replaced by an explicit meta-model that captures the tolerances of the design variables over the entire range of angular positions: position-dependent eigenvalues can be found easily and quickly. Extreme-value statistics of the modal frequencies and extreme-value statistics of the angular positions are readily computed through MCS. Limit-state surfaces that connect the frequencies to the design variables may be easily constructed. Error analysis identifies three errors and the paper presents ways to control them so the methodology can be sufficiently accurate. A numerical example of a flexible four-bar linkage shows the proposed methodology has engineering applications. The impact of the proposed methodology is two-fold: it presents a safe-side analysis based on free vibration methods to

  19. Reliable Dual Tensor Model Estimation in Single and Crossing Fibers Based on Jeffreys Prior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jianfei; Poot, Dirk H. J.; Caan, Matthan W. A.; Su, Tanja; Majoie, Charles B. L. M.; van Vliet, Lucas J.; Vos, Frans M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This paper presents and studies a framework for reliable modeling of diffusion MRI using a data-acquisition adaptive prior. Methods Automated relevance determination estimates the mean of the posterior distribution of a rank-2 dual tensor model exploiting Jeffreys prior (JARD). This data-acquisition prior is based on the Fisher information matrix and enables the assessment whether two tensors are mandatory to describe the data. The method is compared to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) of the dual tensor model and to FSL’s ball-and-stick approach. Results Monte Carlo experiments demonstrated that JARD’s volume fractions correlated well with the ground truth for single and crossing fiber configurations. In single fiber configurations JARD automatically reduced the volume fraction of one compartment to (almost) zero. The variance in fractional anisotropy (FA) of the main tensor component was thereby reduced compared to MLE. JARD and MLE gave a comparable outcome in data simulating crossing fibers. On brain data, JARD yielded a smaller spread in FA along the corpus callosum compared to MLE. Tract-based spatial statistics demonstrated a higher sensitivity in detecting age-related white matter atrophy using JARD compared to both MLE and the ball-and-stick approach. Conclusions The proposed framework offers accurate and precise estimation of diffusion properties in single and dual fiber regions. PMID:27760166

  20. Application of reliability based design concepts to transmission line structure foundations. Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DiGioia, A.M. Jr.; Rojas-Gonzalez, L.F.

    1991-01-01

    The application of reliability based design (RBD) methods to transmission line structure foundations has developed somewhat more slowly than that for the other structural components in line systems. In a previous paper, a procedure was proposed for the design of transmission line structures foundations using a probability based load and resistance factor design (LRFD) format. This procedure involved the determination of a foundation strength factor, φ F , which was used as a multiplier of the calculated nominal design strength to estimate the five percent exclusion limit strength required in the calculated nominal design strength to estimate the five percent exclusion limit strength required in the LRFD equation. Statistical analyses of results from full-scale load tests were used to obtain φ F values applicable to various nominal design strength equations and for drilled shafts subjected to uplift loads. These results clearly illustrated the significant economic benefits of conducting more detailed subsurface investigations for the design of transmission line structure foundations. A design example was also presented. In this paper the proposed procedure is extended to laterally load drilled shafts

  1. Test-retest reliability of sensor-based sit-to-stand measures in young and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regterschot, G Ruben H; Zhang, Wei; Baldus, Heribert; Stevens, Martin; Zijlstra, Wiebren

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated test-retest reliability of sensor-based sit-to-stand (STS) peak power and other STS measures in young and older adults. In addition, test-retest reliability of the sensor method was compared to test-retest reliability of the Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) and Five-Times-Sit-to-Stand Test (FTSST) in older adults. Ten healthy young female adults (20-23 years) and 31 older adults (21 females; 73-94 years) participated in two assessment sessions separated by 3-8 days. Vertical peak power was assessed during three (young adults) and five (older adults) normal and fast STS trials with a hybrid motion sensor worn on the hip. Older adults also performed the FTSST and TUGT. The average sensor-based STS peak power of the normal STS trials and the average sensor-based STS peak power of the fast STS trials showed excellent test-retest reliability in young adults (intra-class correlation (ICC)≥0.90; zero in 95% confidence interval of mean difference between test and retest (95%CI of D); standard error of measurement (SEM)≤6.7% of mean peak power) and older adults (ICC≥0.91; zero in 95%CI of D; SEM≤9.9%). Test-retest reliability of sensor-based STS peak power and TUGT (ICC=0.98; zero in 95%CI of D; SEM=8.5%) was comparable in older adults, test-retest reliability of the FTSST was lower (ICC=0.73; zero outside 95%CI of D; SEM=14.4%). Sensor-based STS peak power demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability and may therefore be useful for clinical assessment of functional status and fall risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. New Atrophic Acne Scar Classification: Reliability of Assessments Based on Size, Shape, and Number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sewon; Lozada, Vicente Torres; Bettoli, Vincenzo; Tan, Jerry; Rueda, Maria Jose; Layton, Alison; Petit, Lauren; Dréno, Brigitte

    2016-06-01

    Post-acne atrophic scarring is a major concern for which standardized outcome measures are needed. Traditionally, this type of scar has been classified based on shape; but survey of practicing dermatologists has shown that atrophic scar morphology has not been well enough defined to allow good agreement in clinical classification. Reliance on clinical assessment is still needed at the current time, since objective tools are not yet available in routine practice. Evaluate classification for atrophic acne scars by shape, size, and facial location and establish reliability in assessments. We conducted a non-interventional study with dermatologists performing live clinical assessments of atrophic acne scars. To objectively compare identification of lesions, individual lesions were marked on a high-resolution photo of the patient that was displayed on a computer during the clinical evaluation. The Jacob clinical classification system was used to define three primary shapes of scars 1) icepick, 2) boxcar, and 3) rolling. To determine agreement for classification by size, independent technicians assessed the investigators' markings on digital images. Identical localization of scars was denoted if the maximal distance between their centers was ≤ 60 pixels (approximately 3 mm). Raters assessed scars on the same patients twice (morning/afternoon). Aggregate models of rater assessments were created and analyzed for agreement. Raters counted a mean scar count per subject ranging from 15.75 to 40.25 scars. Approximately 50% of scars were identified by all raters and ~75% of scars were identified by at least 2 of 3 raters (weak agreement, Kappa pairwise agreement 0.30). Agreement between consecutive counts was moderate, with Kappa index ranging from 0.26 to 0.47 (after exclusion of one outlier investigator who had significantly higher counts than all others). Shape classifications of icepick, boxcar, and rolling differed significantly between raters and even for same raters at

  3. Reliability Prediction Approaches For Domestic Intelligent Electric Energy Meter Based on IEC62380

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Tong, Guanghua; Yang, Jincheng; Sun, Guodong; Han, Dongjun; Wang, Guixian

    2018-01-01

    The reliability of intelligent electric energy meter is a crucial issue considering its large calve application and safety of national intelligent grid. This paper developed a procedure of reliability prediction for domestic intelligent electric energy meter according to IEC62380, especially to identify the determination of model parameters combining domestic working conditions. A case study was provided to show the effectiveness and validation.

  4. On the use of NDT Data for Reliability-Based Assessment of Existing Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sousa, Hélder S.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to address the possibilities of using non-destructive testing (NDT) data for updating information and obtaining adequate characterization of the reliability level of existing timber structures and, also, for assessing the evolution in time of performance...... of these structures when exposed to deterioration. By improving the knowledge upon the mechanical properties of timber, better and more substantiated decisions after a reliability safety assessment are aimed at. Bayesian methods are used to update the mechanical properties of timber and reliability assessment......, and information of NDT is also used to calibrate these models. The proposed approach is used for reliability assessment of different structural timber systems. Reliability of the structural system is assessed regarding the failure consequences of individual elements defined as key elements which were determined...

  5. How reliable is internet-based self-reported identity, socio-demographic and obesity measures in European adults?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Celis-Morales, C.; Livingstone, K.M.; Woolhead, C.; Forster, H.; O’Donovan, C.B.; Macready, A.L.; Fallaize, R.; Marsaux, C.F.M.; Tsirigoti, L.; Efstathopoulou, E.; Moschonis, G.; Navas-Carretero, S.; San-Cristobal, R.; Kolossa, S.; Klein, U.L.; Hallmann, J.; Godlewska, M.; Surwiłło, A.; Drevon, C.A.; Bouwman, J.; Grimaldi, K.; Parnell, L.D.; Manios, Y.; Traczyk, I.; Gibney, E.R.; Brennan, L.; Walsh, M.C.; Lovegrove, J.A.; Martinez, J.A.; Daniel, H.; Saris, W.H.M.; Gibney, M.; Mathers, J.C.

    2015-01-01

    In e-health intervention studies, there are concerns about the reliability of internet-based, self-reported (SR) data and about the potential for identity fraud. This study introduced and tested a novel procedure for assessing the validity of internet-based, SR identity and validated anthropometric

  6. Is Learner Self-Assessment Reliable and Valid in a Web-Based Portfolio Environment for High School Students?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chi-Cheng; Liang, Chaoyun; Chen, Yi-Hui

    2013-01-01

    This study explored the reliability and validity of Web-based portfolio self-assessment. Participants were 72 senior high school students enrolled in a computer application course. The students created learning portfolios, viewed peers' work, and performed self-assessment on the Web-based portfolio assessment system. The results indicated: 1)…

  7. Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong

    1992-07-01

    This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

  8. Transmission cost allocation based on power flow tracing considering reliability benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leepreechanon, N.; Singharerg, S.; Padungwech, W.; Nakawiro, W.; Eua-Arporn, B.; David, A.K.

    2007-01-01

    Power transmission networks must be able to accommodate the continuously growing demand for reliable and economical electricity. This paper presented a method to allocate transmission use and reliability cost to both generators and end-consumers. Although transmission cost allocation methods change depending on the local context of the electric power industry, there is a common principle that transmission line capacity should be properly allocated to accommodate actual power delivery with an adequate reliability margin. The method proposed in this paper allocates transmission embedded cost to both generators and loads in an equitable manner, incorporating probability indices to allocate transmission reliability margin among users in both supply and demand sides. The application of the proposed method was illustrated using Bialek's tracing method on a multiple-circuit, six-bus transmission system. Probabilistic indices known as the transmission internal reliability margin (TIRM) and transmission external reliability margin (TERM) decomposed from the transmission reliability margin (TRM) were introduced, making true cost of using overall transmission facilities. 6 refs., 11 tabs., 5 figs

  9. Fuzzy stochastic generalized reliability studies on embankment systems based on first-order approximation theorem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yajun

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to address the complex uncertainties caused by interfacing between the fuzziness and randomness of the safety problem for embankment engineering projects, and to evaluate the safety of embankment engineering projects more scientifically and reasonably, this study presents the fuzzy logic modeling of the stochastic finite element method (SFEM based on the harmonious finite element (HFE technique using a first-order approximation theorem. Fuzzy mathematical models of safety repertories were introduced into the SFEM to analyze the stability of embankments and foundations in order to describe the fuzzy failure procedure for the random safety performance function. The fuzzy models were developed with membership functions with half depressed gamma distribution, half depressed normal distribution, and half depressed echelon distribution. The fuzzy stochastic mathematical algorithm was used to comprehensively study the local failure mechanism of the main embankment section near Jingnan in the Yangtze River in terms of numerical analysis for the probability integration of reliability on the random field affected by three fuzzy factors. The result shows that the middle region of the embankment is the principal zone of concentrated failure due to local fractures. There is also some local shear failure on the embankment crust. This study provides a referential method for solving complex multi-uncertainty problems in engineering safety analysis.

  10. Reliability Assessment for PSC Box-Girder Bridges Based on SHM Strain Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A reliability assessment method for prestressed concrete (PSC continuous box-girder bridges based on structural health monitoring (SHM strain measurements was proposed. First, due to the fact that measured strain was compositive and the variation periods of its components were different, a series of limit state equations under normal use limit state were given. Then, a linear fitting method was used to determine the relationship between the ambient temperature and the measured strain, which was aimed at extracting the vehicle load effect and the temperature load effect from the measured strain. Finally, according to the equivalent normalization method, the load effects unsatisfying the normal distribution by probability density function fitting were transformed, and the daily failure probabilities of monitored positions were calculated for evaluating the safety state of the girder. The results show that (1 the top plate of the box girder is more sensitive than the bottom plate to the high temperature, (2 the daily and seasonal strain variations induced by uniform temperature reveal an inconsistent tendency to the seasonal variation for mid-span cross sections, and (3 the generalized extreme value distribution is recommended for temperature gradient stress and vehicle induced stress fitting for box-girder bridges.

  11. Science-Based Simulation Model of Human Performance for Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Dana L.; Boring, Ronald L.; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

    2011-01-01

    Human reliability analysis (HRA), a component of an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), is the means by which the human contribution to risk is assessed, both qualitatively and quantitatively. However, among the literally dozens of HRA methods that have been developed, most cannot fully model and quantify the types of errors that occurred at Three Mile Island. Furthermore, all of the methods lack a solid empirical basis, relying heavily on expert judgment or empirical results derived in non-reactor domains. Finally, all of the methods are essentially static, and are thus unable to capture the dynamics of an accident in progress. The objective of this work is to begin exploring a dynamic simulation approach to HRA, one whose models have a basis in psychological theories of human performance, and whose quantitative estimates have an empirical basis. This paper highlights a plan to formalize collaboration among the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the University of Maryland, and The Ohio State University (OSU) to continue development of a simulation model initially formulated at the University of Maryland. Initial work will focus on enhancing the underlying human performance models with the most recent psychological research, and on planning follow-on studies to establish an empirical basis for the model, based on simulator experiments to be carried out at the INL and at the OSU.

  12. A safe and reliable neutralization assay based on pseudovirus to measure neutralizing antibody titer against poliovirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shaohua; Song, Dongmei; Bai, Han; Lu, Weiwei; Dai, Xinxian; Hao, Chunsheng; Zhang, Zhongyang; Guo, Huijie; Zhang, Yue; Li, Xiuling

    2017-12-01

    With the promotion of inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine (IPV) and live attenuated oral poliomyelitis vaccine (OPV), the global reported cases of poliomyelitis have reduced sharply from 0.35 million in 1988 to 74 in 2015. The Polio Eradication & Endgame Strategic Plan published by WHO in 2013 included the strategy of implementation of poliovirus safe handling and containment measures to minimize the risks of facility-associated reintroduction of virus into the polio-free community to prevent the re-import of poliovirus. Toward this strategy, we produced replication-incompetent pseudovirus of poliovirus type 1, 2, 3 attenuated strains by constructing poliovirus capsid expression vectors and poliovirus replicon then transfecting HEK293T cells and developed a pseudovirus-based neutralization assay (pNA) to determine neutralizing antibody titer which is more secure, time-saving and reliable than conventional neutralization assay (cNA). By using anti-poliovirus rat serum, we demonstrated excellent correlation between neutralizing antibody titers measured by cNA and pNA. It was concluded that pNA can be a potential alternative to replace cNA as a safe and time-saving system for titer determination after live poliovirus's safekeeping. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Shock reliability analysis and improvement of MEMS electret-based vibration energy harvesters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud, M; Goedbloed, M; De Nooijer, C; Van Schaijk, R; Fujita, T

    2015-01-01

    Vibration energy harvesters can serve as a replacement solution to batteries for powering tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS). Autonomous wireless TPMS powered by microelectromechanical system (MEMS) electret-based vibration energy harvester have been demonstrated. The mechanical reliability of the MEMS harvester still has to be assessed in order to bring the harvester to the requirements of the consumer market. It should survive the mechanical shocks occurring in the tire environment. A testing procedure to quantify the shock resilience of harvesters is described in this article. Our first generation of harvesters has a shock resilience of 400 g, which is far from being sufficient for the targeted application. In order to improve this aspect, the first important aspect is to understand the failure mechanism. Failure is found to occur in the form of fracture of the device’s springs. It results from impacts between the anchors of the springs when the harvester undergoes a shock. The shock resilience of the harvesters can be improved by redirecting these impacts to nonvital parts of the device. With this philosophy in mind, we design three types of shock absorbing structures and test their effect on the shock resilience of our MEMS harvesters. The solution leading to the best results consists of rigid silicon stoppers covered by a layer of Parylene. The shock resilience of the harvesters is brought above 2500 g. Results in the same range are also obtained with flexible silicon bumpers, which are simpler to manufacture. (paper)

  14. Reliability assessment of a manual-based procedure towards learning curve modeling and fmea analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Rech

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Separation procedures in drug Distribution Centers (DC are manual-based activities prone to failures such as shipping exchanged, expired or broken drugs to the customer. Two interventions seem as promising in improving the reliability in the separation procedure: (i selection and allocation of appropriate operators to the procedure, and (ii analysis of potential failure modes incurred by selected operators. This article integrates Learning Curves (LC and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis aimed at reducing the occurrence of failures in the manual separation of a drug DC. LCs parameters enable generating an index to identify the recommended operators to perform the procedures. The FMEA is then applied to the separation procedure carried out by the selected operators in order to identify failure modes. It also deployed the traditional FMEA severity index into two sub-indexes related to financial issues and damage to company´s image in order to characterize failures severity. When applied to a drug DC, the proposed method significantly reduced the frequency and severity of failures in the separation procedure.

  15. Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of Rock Slopes Using Numerical Analysis and Response Surface Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadashzadeh, N.; Duzgun, H. S. B.; Yesiloglu-Gultekin, N.

    2017-08-01

    While advanced numerical techniques in slope stability analysis are successfully used in deterministic studies, they have so far found limited use in probabilistic analyses due to their high computation cost. The first-order reliability method (FORM) is one of the most efficient probabilistic techniques to perform probabilistic stability analysis by considering the associated uncertainties in the analysis parameters. However, it is not possible to directly use FORM in numerical slope stability evaluations as it requires definition of a limit state performance function. In this study, an integrated methodology for probabilistic numerical modeling of rock slope stability is proposed. The methodology is based on response surface method, where FORM is used to develop an explicit performance function from the results of numerical simulations. The implementation of the proposed methodology is performed by considering a large potential rock wedge in Sumela Monastery, Turkey. The accuracy of the developed performance function to truly represent the limit state surface is evaluated by monitoring the slope behavior. The calculated probability of failure is compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The proposed methodology is found to be 72% more efficient than MCS, while the accuracy is decreased with an error of 24%.

  16. DG Allocation Based on Reliability, Losses and Voltage Sag Considerations: an expert system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Abdel Moneim Moussa

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expert System (ES as a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI methodology can potentially help in solving complicated power system problems. This may be more appropriate methodology than conventional optimization techniques when contradiction between objectives appears in reaching the optimum solution. When this contradiction is the hindrance in reaching the required system operation through the application of traditional methods ES can give a hand in such case. In this paper, the  knowledge- based ES technique is proposed to reach near-optimum solution which is further directed to the optimum solution through particle swarm optimization (PSO technique. This idea is known as Hybrid-Expert-System (HES. The proposed idea is used in getting the optimum allocation of a number of distributed generation (DG units on Distribution System (DS busbars taking into consideration three issues; reliability, voltage sag, and line losses. Optimality is assessed on the economic basis by calculating money benefits (or losses resulting from DG addition considering the three aforementioned issues. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is ascertained through example.

  17. Shock reliability analysis and improvement of MEMS electret-based vibration energy harvesters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, M.; Fujita, T.; Goedbloed, M.; de Nooijer, C.; van Schaijk, R.

    2015-10-01

    Vibration energy harvesters can serve as a replacement solution to batteries for powering tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS). Autonomous wireless TPMS powered by microelectromechanical system (MEMS) electret-based vibration energy harvester have been demonstrated. The mechanical reliability of the MEMS harvester still has to be assessed in order to bring the harvester to the requirements of the consumer market. It should survive the mechanical shocks occurring in the tire environment. A testing procedure to quantify the shock resilience of harvesters is described in this article. Our first generation of harvesters has a shock resilience of 400 g, which is far from being sufficient for the targeted application. In order to improve this aspect, the first important aspect is to understand the failure mechanism. Failure is found to occur in the form of fracture of the device’s springs. It results from impacts between the anchors of the springs when the harvester undergoes a shock. The shock resilience of the harvesters can be improved by redirecting these impacts to nonvital parts of the device. With this philosophy in mind, we design three types of shock absorbing structures and test their effect on the shock resilience of our MEMS harvesters. The solution leading to the best results consists of rigid silicon stoppers covered by a layer of Parylene. The shock resilience of the harvesters is brought above 2500 g. Results in the same range are also obtained with flexible silicon bumpers, which are simpler to manufacture.

  18. An Acetylcholinesterase-Based Chronoamperometric Biosensor for Fast and Reliable Assay of Nerve Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rene Kizek

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The enzyme acetylcholinesterase (AChE is an important part of cholinergic nervous system, where it stops neurotransmission by hydrolysis of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine. It is sensitive to inhibition by organophosphate and carbamate insecticides, some Alzheimer disease drugs, secondary metabolites such as aflatoxins and nerve agents used in chemical warfare. When immobilized on a sensor (physico-chemical transducer, it can be used for assay of these inhibitors. In the experiments described herein, an AChE- based electrochemical biosensor using screen printed electrode systems was prepared. The biosensor was used for assay of nerve agents such as sarin, soman, tabun and VX. The limits of detection achieved in a measuring protocol lasting ten minutes were 7.41 × 10−12 mol/L for sarin, 6.31 × 10−12 mol /L for soman, 6.17 × 10−11 mol/L for tabun, and 2.19 × 10−11 mol/L for VX, respectively. The assay was reliable, with minor interferences caused by the organic solvents ethanol, methanol, isopropanol and acetonitrile. Isopropanol was chosen as suitable medium for processing lipophilic samples.

  19. LMI-based adaptive reliable H∞ static output feedback control against switched actuator failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Liwei; Zhai, Ding; Dong, Jiuxiang; Zhang, Qingling

    2017-08-01

    This paper investigates the H∞ static output feedback (SOF) control problem for switched linear system under arbitrary switching, where the actuator failure models are considered to depend on switching signal. An active reliable control scheme is developed by combination of linear matrix inequality (LMI) method and adaptive mechanism. First, by exploiting variable substitution and Finsler's lemma, new LMI conditions are given for designing the SOF controller. Compared to the existing results, the proposed design conditions are more relaxed and can be applied to a wider class of no-fault linear systems. Then a novel adaptive mechanism is established, where the inverses of switched failure scaling factors are estimated online to accommodate the effects of actuator failure on systems. Two main difficulties arise: first is how to design the switched adaptive laws to prevent the missing of estimating information due to switching; second is how to construct a common Lyapunov function based on a switched estimate error term. It is shown that the new method can give less conservative results than that for the traditional control design with fixed gain matrices. Finally, simulation results on the HiMAT aircraft are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

  20. Study of Fuze Structure and Reliability Design Based on the Direct Search Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhang; Ning, Wang

    2017-03-01

    Redundant design is one of the important methods to improve the reliability of the system, but mutual coupling of multiple factors is often involved in the design. In my study, Direct Search Method is introduced into the optimum redundancy configuration for design optimization, in which, the reliability, cost, structural weight and other factors can be taken into account simultaneously, and the redundant allocation and reliability design of aircraft critical system are computed. The results show that this method is convenient and workable, and applicable to the redundancy configurations and optimization of various designs upon appropriate modifications. And this method has a good practical value.

  1. Investigation of reliability indicators of information analysis systems based on Markov’s absorbing chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.

    2017-09-01

    In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.

  2. A GC/MS-based metabolomic approach for reliable diagnosis of phenylketonuria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiyue; Sheng, Xiaoqi; Liu, Dan; Zeng, Ting; Peng, Ying; Wang, Yichao

    2015-11-01

    ), which showed that phenylacetic acid may be used as a reliable discriminator for the diagnosis of PKU. The low false positive rate (1-specificity, 0.064) can be eliminated or at least greatly reduced by simultaneously referring to other markers, especially phenylpyruvic acid, a unique marker in PKU. Additionally, this standard was obtained with high sensitivity and specificity in a less invasive manner for diagnosing PKU compared with the Phe/Tyr ratio. Therefore, we conclude that urinary metabolomic information based on the improved oximation-silylation method together with GC/MS may be reliable for the diagnosis and differential diagnosis of PKU.

  3. Simulation-based Assessment to Reliably Identify Key Resident Performance Attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Richard H; Muret-Wagstaff, Sharon L; Boulet, John R; Cooper, Jeffrey B; Petrusa, Emil R; Baker, Keith H; Davidyuk, Galina; Dearden, Jennifer L; Feinstein, David M; Jones, Stephanie B; Kimball, William R; Mitchell, John D; Nadelberg, Robert L; Wiser, Sarah H; Albrecht, Meredith A; Anastasi, Amanda K; Bose, Ruma R; Chang, Laura Y; Culley, Deborah J; Fisher, Lauren J; Grover, Meera; Klainer, Suzanne B; Kveraga, Rikante; Martel, Jeffrey P; McKenna, Shannon S; Minehart, Rebecca D; Mitchell, John D; Mountjoy, Jeremi R; Pawlowski, John B; Pilon, Robert N; Shook, Douglas C; Silver, David A; Warfield, Carol A; Zaleski, Katherine L

    2018-04-01

    Obtaining reliable and valid information on resident performance is critical to patient safety and training program improvement. The goals were to characterize important anesthesia resident performance gaps that are not typically evaluated, and to further validate scores from a multiscenario simulation-based assessment. Seven high-fidelity scenarios reflecting core anesthesiology skills were administered to 51 first-year residents (CA-1s) and 16 third-year residents (CA-3s) from three residency programs. Twenty trained attending anesthesiologists rated resident performances using a seven-point behaviorally anchored rating scale for five domains: (1) formulate a clear plan, (2) modify the plan under changing conditions, (3) communicate effectively, (4) identify performance improvement opportunities, and (5) recognize limits. A second rater assessed 10% of encounters. Scores and variances for each domain, each scenario, and the total were compared. Low domain ratings (1, 2) were examined in detail. Interrater agreement was 0.76; reliability of the seven-scenario assessment was r = 0.70. CA-3s had a significantly higher average total score (4.9 ± 1.1 vs. 4.6 ± 1.1, P = 0.01, effect size = 0.33). CA-3s significantly outscored CA-1s for five of seven scenarios and domains 1, 2, and 3. CA-1s had a significantly higher proportion of worrisome ratings than CA-3s (chi-square = 24.1, P < 0.01, effect size = 1.50). Ninety-eight percent of residents rated the simulations more educational than an average day in the operating room. Sensitivity of the assessment to CA-1 versus CA-3 performance differences for most scenarios and domains supports validity. No differences, by experience level, were detected for two domains associated with reflective practice. Smaller score variances for CA-3s likely reflect a training effect; however, worrisome performance scores for both CA-1s and CA-3s suggest room for improvement.

  4. Reliability-based management of buried pipelines considering external corrosion defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miran, Seyedeh Azadeh

    Corrosion is one of the main deteriorating mechanisms that degrade the energy pipeline integrity, due to transferring corrosive fluid or gas and interacting with corrosive environment. Corrosion defects are usually detected by periodical inspections using in-line inspection (ILI) methods. In order to ensure pipeline safety, this study develops a cost-effective maintenance strategy that consists of three aspects: corrosion growth model development using ILI data, time-dependent performance evaluation, and optimal inspection interval determination. In particular, the proposed study is applied to a cathodic protected buried steel pipeline located in Mexico. First, time-dependent power-law formulation is adopted to probabilistically characterize growth of the maximum depth and length of the external corrosion defects. Dependency between defect depth and length are considered in the model development and generation of the corrosion defects over time is characterized by the homogenous Poisson process. The growth models unknown parameters are evaluated based on the ILI data through the Bayesian updating method with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique. The proposed corrosion growth models can be used when either matched or non-matched defects are available, and have ability to consider newly generated defects since last inspection. Results of this part of study show that both depth and length growth models can predict damage quantities reasonably well and a strong correlation between defect depth and length is found. Next, time-dependent system failure probabilities are evaluated using developed corrosion growth models considering prevailing uncertainties where three failure modes, namely small leak, large leak and rupture are considered. Performance of the pipeline is evaluated through failure probability per km (or called a sub-system) where each subsystem is considered as a series system of detected and newly generated defects within that sub

  5. Reliability-based assessment of deteriorating ship-shaped offshore structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayala-Uraga, Efren

    2009-11-15

    components rises accordingly. Therefore, it is indispensable for FPSO operators to assess the safety of existing vessels with proper consideration of the uncertainties involved. The aim of this dissertation is to discuss the safety assessment of an existing shipshaped offshore structure subjected to deterioration, where the interaction among different deteriorating phenomena such as fatigue, corrosion and fracture, are explicitly accounted for in a systematic and consistent manner. The format of this thesis report consists of an extended summary intended to emphasize the main contributions achieved and the relevant issues dealt with during this research work, which resulted in the production of three articles that have already been published, annexed at the end of the report. The first article, referred to as Article 1 throughout this report, was published in the International Journal of Fatigue (2007). This article deals with the treatment of uncertainties related to the fatigue crack growth of surface cracks on plated connections and compares different reliability-based limit state formulations including a bi-linear crack growth law that is recommended by the British Standard BS-7910 (1999). Calibration of the bi-linear fracture mechanics formulation is performed with respect to design SN curves considering the parameters with largest uncertainties. The second article, Article 2, published in Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2008) describes a procedure based on reliability techniques to assess the safety level on a welded connection of an aging FPSO with respect fatigue failure, taking into account in the crack growth estimation the effect of the vessel being exposed to various climate conditions throughout the service life. This means that the fatigue damage accumulated under previous operational conditions of the vessel, e.g. as tanker before conversion, is explicitly accounted for in the failure function. Thus, the uncertainties are also explicitly considered

  6. Validation and selection of ODE based systems biology models: how to arrive at more reliable decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasdemir, Dicle; Hoefsloot, Huub C J; Smilde, Age K

    2015-07-08

    Most ordinary differential equation (ODE) based modeling studies in systems biology involve a hold-out validation step for model validation. In this framework a pre-determined part of the data is used as validation data and, therefore it is not used for estimating the parameters of the model. The model is assumed to be validated if the model predictions on the validation dataset show good agreement with the data. Model selection between alternative model structures can also be performed in the same setting, based on the predictive power of the model structures on the validation dataset. However, drawbacks associated with this approach are usually under-estimated. We have carried out simulations by using a recently published High Osmolarity Glycerol (HOG) pathway from S.cerevisiae to demonstrate these drawbacks. We have shown that it is very important how the data is partitioned and which part of the data is used for validation purposes. The hold-out validation strategy leads to biased conclusions, since it can lead to different validation and selection decisions when different partitioning schemes are used. Furthermore, finding sensible partitioning schemes that would lead to reliable decisions are heavily dependent on the biology and unknown model parameters which turns the problem into a paradox. This brings the need for alternative validation approaches that offer flexible partitioning of the data. For this purpose, we have introduced a stratified random cross-validation (SRCV) approach that successfully overcomes these limitations. SRCV leads to more stable decisions for both validation and selection which are not biased by underlying biological phenomena. Furthermore, it is less dependent on the specific noise realization in the data. Therefore, it proves to be a promising alternative to the standard hold-out validation strategy.

  7. Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis based on D numbers and AHP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Xinyi; Deng, Xinyang; Deng, Yong; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • D numbers and AHP are combined to implement dependence assessment in HRA. • A new tool, called D numbers, is used to deal with the uncertainty in HRA. • The proposed method can well address the fuzziness and subjectivity in linguistic assessment. • The proposed method is well applicable in dependence assessment which inherently has a linguistic assessment process. - Abstract: Since human errors always cause heavy loss especially in nuclear engineering, human reliability analysis (HRA) has attracted more and more attention. Dependence assessment plays a vital role in HRA, measuring the dependence degree of human errors. Many researches have been done while still have improvement space. In this paper, a dependence assessment model based on D numbers and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed. Firstly, identify the factors used to measure the dependence level of two human operations. Besides, in terms of the suggested dependence level, determine and quantify the anchor points for each factor. Secondly, D numbers and AHP are adopted in model. Experts evaluate the dependence level of human operations for each factor. Then, the evaluation results are presented as D numbers and fused by D number’s combination rule that can obtain the dependence probability of human operations for each factor. The weights of factors can be determined by AHP. Thirdly, based on the dependence probability for each factor and its corresponding weight, the dependence probability of two human operations and its confidence can be obtained. The proposed method can well address the fuzziness and subjectivity in linguistic assessment. The proposed method is well applicable to assess the dependence degree of human errors in HRA which inherently has a linguistic assessment process.

  8. Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis based on D numbers and AHP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Xinyi; Deng, Xinyang [School of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Deng, Yong, E-mail: ydeng@swu.edu.cn [School of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Institute of Fundamental and Frontier Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan 610054 (China); Mahadevan, Sankaran [School of Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • D numbers and AHP are combined to implement dependence assessment in HRA. • A new tool, called D numbers, is used to deal with the uncertainty in HRA. • The proposed method can well address the fuzziness and subjectivity in linguistic assessment. • The proposed method is well applicable in dependence assessment which inherently has a linguistic assessment process. - Abstract: Since human errors always cause heavy loss especially in nuclear engineering, human reliability analysis (HRA) has attracted more and more attention. Dependence assessment plays a vital role in HRA, measuring the dependence degree of human errors. Many researches have been done while still have improvement space. In this paper, a dependence assessment model based on D numbers and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed. Firstly, identify the factors used to measure the dependence level of two human operations. Besides, in terms of the suggested dependence level, determine and quantify the anchor points for each factor. Secondly, D numbers and AHP are adopted in model. Experts evaluate the dependence level of human operations for each factor. Then, the evaluation results are presented as D numbers and fused by D number’s combination rule that can obtain the dependence probability of human operations for each factor. The weights of factors can be determined by AHP. Thirdly, based on the dependence probability for each factor and its corresponding weight, the dependence probability of two human operations and its confidence can be obtained. The proposed method can well address the fuzziness and subjectivity in linguistic assessment. The proposed method is well applicable to assess the dependence degree of human errors in HRA which inherently has a linguistic assessment process.

  9. Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Chaimowicz

    Full Text Available The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries' populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil.We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815. Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%.The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations.

  10. Diagnosis of vertebral fractures in children: is a simplified algorithm-based qualitative technique reliable?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adiotomre, E.; Summers, L.; Digby, M.; Allison, A.; Walters, S.J.; Broadley, P.; Lang, I.; Offiah, A.C.

    2016-01-01

    Identification of osteoporotic vertebral fractures allows treatment opportunity reducing future risk. There is no agreed standardised method for diagnosing paediatric vertebral fractures. To evaluate the precision of a modified adult algorithm-based qualitative (ABQ) technique, applicable to children with primary or secondary osteoporosis. Three radiologists independently assessed lateral spine radiographs of 50 children with suspected reduction in bone mineral density using a modified ABQ scoring system and following simplification to include only clinically relevant parameters, a simplified ABQ score. A final consensus of all observers using simplified ABQ was performed as a reference standard for fracture characterisation. Kappa was calculated for interobserver agreement of the components of both scoring systems and intraobserver agreement of simplified ABQ based on a second read of 29 randomly selected images. Interobserver Kappa for modified ABQ scoring for fracture detection, severity and shape ranged from 0.34 to 0.49 Kappa for abnormal endplate and position assessment was 0.27 to 0.38. Inter- and intraobserver Kappa for simplified ABQ scoring for fracture detection and grade ranged from 0.37 to 0.46 and 0.45 to 0.56, respectively. Inter- and intraobserver Kappa for affected endplate ranged from 0.31 to 0.41 and 0.45 to 0.51, respectively. Subjectively, observers' felt simplified ABQ was easier and less time-consuming. Observer reliability of modified and simplified ABQ was similar, with slight to moderate agreement for fracture detection and grade/severity. Due to subjective preference for simplified ABQ, we suggest its use as a semi-objective measure of diagnosing paediatric vertebral fractures. (orig.)

  11. Diagnosis of vertebral fractures in children: is a simplified algorithm-based qualitative technique reliable?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adiotomre, E. [Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust UK, Radiology Department, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Sheffield Children' s NHS Foundation Trust, Radiology Department, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Summers, L.; Digby, M. [University of Sheffield UK, Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Allison, A.; Walters, S.J. [University of Sheffield UK, School of Health and Related Research, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Broadley, P.; Lang, I. [Sheffield Children' s NHS Foundation Trust, Radiology Department, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Offiah, A.C. [Sheffield Children' s NHS Foundation Trust, Radiology Department, Sheffield (United Kingdom); University of Sheffield UK, Academic Unit of Child Health, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2016-05-15

    Identification of osteoporotic vertebral fractures allows treatment opportunity reducing future risk. There is no agreed standardised method for diagnosing paediatric vertebral fractures. To evaluate the precision of a modified adult algorithm-based qualitative (ABQ) technique, applicable to children with primary or secondary osteoporosis. Three radiologists independently assessed lateral spine radiographs of 50 children with suspected reduction in bone mineral density using a modified ABQ scoring system and following simplification to include only clinically relevant parameters, a simplified ABQ score. A final consensus of all observers using simplified ABQ was performed as a reference standard for fracture characterisation. Kappa was calculated for interobserver agreement of the components of both scoring systems and intraobserver agreement of simplified ABQ based on a second read of 29 randomly selected images. Interobserver Kappa for modified ABQ scoring for fracture detection, severity and shape ranged from 0.34 to 0.49 Kappa for abnormal endplate and position assessment was 0.27 to 0.38. Inter- and intraobserver Kappa for simplified ABQ scoring for fracture detection and grade ranged from 0.37 to 0.46 and 0.45 to 0.56, respectively. Inter- and intraobserver Kappa for affected endplate ranged from 0.31 to 0.41 and 0.45 to 0.51, respectively. Subjectively, observers' felt simplified ABQ was easier and less time-consuming. Observer reliability of modified and simplified ABQ was similar, with slight to moderate agreement for fracture detection and grade/severity. Due to subjective preference for simplified ABQ, we suggest its use as a semi-objective measure of diagnosing paediatric vertebral fractures. (orig.)

  12. A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdan, H.A.; Ghajar, R.F.; Chedid, R.B.

    2012-01-01

    The Lebanese Electric Power System (LEPS) has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill-operating infrastructure, and suffering from effects of political instability, huge debts, unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation. The upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical, financial, administrative and governance aspects of the system. In this paper, an energy policy for Lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling. The paper utilizes the Load Modification Technique (LMT) as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production, overall cost, technical/commercial losses and reliability. Scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business-as-usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector. Conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for Lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems. - Highlights: ► Evaluation methodology based on a probabilistic simulation tool is proposed. ► A business-as-usual scenario for a given study period of the LEPS was modeled. ► Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of the energy policy are modeled. ► Policy simulated and compared with business-as-usual scenarios of the LEPS. ► Results reflect usefulness of proposed methodology and the adopted energy policy.

  13. Once is not enough : Establishing reliability criteria for teacher evaluation based on classroom observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Lans, Rikkert; van de Grift, Wim; van Veen, Klaas

    2016-01-01

    Classroom observation is the most implemented method to evaluate teaching. To ensure reliability, researchers often train observers extensively. However, schools have limited resources to train observers and often lesson observation is performed by limitedly trained or untrained colleagues. In this

  14. Reliability analysis for thermal cutting method based non-explosive separation device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jun Woo; Hwang, Kuk Ha; Kim, Byung Kyu

    2016-01-01

    In order to increase the reliability of a separation device for a small satellite, a new non-explosive separation device is invented. This device is activated using a thermal cutting method with a Ni-Cr wire. A reliability analysis is carried out for the proposed non-explosive separation device by applying the Fault tree analysis (FTA) method. In the FTA results for the separation device, only ten single-point failure modes are found. The reliability modeling and analysis for the device are performed considering failure of the power supply, the Ni-Cr wire burns failure and unwinds, the holder separation failure, the balls separation failure, and the pin release failure. Ultimately, the reliability of the proposed device is calculated as 0.999989 with five Ni-Cr wire coils

  15. Human reliability in high dose rate afterloading radiotherapy based on FMECA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng Jun; Fan Yaohua; Yue Baorong; Wei Kedao; Ren Fuli

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To put forward reasonable and feasible recommendations against the procedure with relative high risk during the high dose rate (HDR) afterloading radiotherapy, so as to enhance its clinical application safety, through studying the human reliability in the process of carrying out the HDR afterloading radiotherapy. Methods: Basic data were collected by on-site investigation and process analysis as well as expert evaluation. Failure mode, effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) employed to study the human reliability in the execution of HDR afterloading radiotherapy. Results: The FMECA model of human reliability for HDR afterloading radiotherapy was established, through which 25 procedures with relative high risk index were found,accounting for 14.1% of total 177 procedures. Conclusions: FMECA method in human reliability study for HDR afterloading radiotherapy is feasible. The countermeasures are put forward to reduce the human error, so as to provide important basis for enhancing clinical application safety of HDR afterloading radiotherapy. (authors)

  16. Reliability analysis for thermal cutting method based non-explosive separation device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Jun Woo; Hwang, Kuk Ha; Kim, Byung Kyu [Korea Aerospace University, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    In order to increase the reliability of a separation device for a small satellite, a new non-explosive separation device is invented. This device is activated using a thermal cutting method with a Ni-Cr wire. A reliability analysis is carried out for the proposed non-explosive separation device by applying the Fault tree analysis (FTA) method. In the FTA results for the separation device, only ten single-point failure modes are found. The reliability modeling and analysis for the device are performed considering failure of the power supply, the Ni-Cr wire burns failure and unwinds, the holder separation failure, the balls separation failure, and the pin release failure. Ultimately, the reliability of the proposed device is calculated as 0.999989 with five Ni-Cr wire coils.

  17. Reliability prediction of large fuel cell stack based on structure stress analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L. F.; Liu, B.; Wu, C. W.

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability of Proton Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stack by designing the clamping force and the thickness difference between the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the gasket. The stack reliability is directly determined by the component reliability, which is affected by the material property and contact stress. The component contact stress is a random variable because it is usually affected by many uncertain factors in the production and clamping process. We have investigated the influences of parameter variation coefficient on the probability distribution of contact stress using the equivalent stiffness model and the first-order second moment method. The optimal contact stress to make the component stay in the highest level reliability is obtained by the stress-strength interference model. To obtain the optimal contact stress between the contact components, the optimal thickness of the component and the stack clamping force are optimally designed. Finally, a detailed description is given how to design the MEA and gasket dimensions to obtain the highest stack reliability. This work can provide a valuable guidance in the design of stack structure for a high reliability of fuel cell stack.

  18. Validity and Reliability of Field-Based Measures for Assessing Movement Skill Competency in Lifelong Physical Activities: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulteen, Ryan M; Lander, Natalie J; Morgan, Philip J; Barnett, Lisa M; Robertson, Samuel J; Lubans, David R

    2015-10-01

    It has been suggested that young people should develop competence in a variety of 'lifelong physical activities' to ensure that they can be active across the lifespan. The primary aim of this systematic review is to report the methodological properties, validity, reliability, and test duration of field-based measures that assess movement skill competency in lifelong physical activities. A secondary aim was to clearly define those characteristics unique to lifelong physical activities. A search of four electronic databases (Scopus, SPORTDiscus, ProQuest, and PubMed) was conducted between June 2014 and April 2015 with no date restrictions. Studies addressing the validity and/or reliability of lifelong physical activity tests were reviewed. Included articles were required to assess lifelong physical activities using process-oriented measures, as well as report either one type of validity or reliability. Assessment criteria for methodological quality were adapted from a checklist used in a previous review of sport skill outcome assessments. Movement skill assessments for eight different lifelong physical activities (badminton, cycling, dance, golf, racquetball, resistance training, swimming, and tennis) in 17 studies were identified for inclusion. Methodological quality, validity, reliability, and test duration (time to assess a single participant), for each article were assessed. Moderate to excellent reliability results were found in 16 of 17 studies, with 71% reporting inter-rater reliability and 41% reporting intra-rater reliability. Only four studies in this review reported test-retest reliability. Ten studies reported validity results; content validity was cited in 41% of these studies. Construct validity was reported in 24% of studies, while criterion validity was only reported in 12% of studies. Numerous assessments for lifelong physical activities may exist, yet only assessments for eight lifelong physical activities were included in this review

  19. Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Trusses with Linked-Discrete Design Variables using the Improved Firefly Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. M. Okasha

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an approach for conducting a Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO of truss structures with linked-discrete design variables is proposed. The sections of the truss members are selected from the AISC standard tables and thus the design variables that represent the properties of each section are linked. Latin hypercube sampling is used in the evaluation of the structural reliability. The improved firefly algorithm is used for the optimization solution process. It was found that in order to use the improved firefly algorithm for efficiently solving problems of reliability-based design optimization with linked-discrete design variables; it needs to be modified as proposed in this paper to accelerate its convergence.

  20. Toward feasible, valid, and reliable video-based assessments of technical surgical skills in the operating room

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aggarwal, R.; Grantcharov, T.; Moorthy, K.

    2008-01-01

    .72). Conclusions: Video-based technical skills evaluation in the operating room is feasible, valid and reliable. Global rating scales hold promise for summative assessment, though further work is necessary to elucidate the value of procedural rating scales Udgivelsesdato: 2008/2......Objective: To determine the feasibility, validity, inter-rater, and intertest reliability of 4 previously published video-based rating scales, for technical skills assessment on a benchmark laparoscopic procedure. Summary Background Data: Assessment of technical skills is crucial...... to the demonstration and maintenance of competent healthcare practitioners. Traditional assessment methods are prone to subjectivity through a lack of proven validity and reliability. Methods: Nineteen surgeons (6 novice and 13 experienced) performed a median of 2 laparoscopic cholecystectomies each (range 1-5) on 53...

  1. A reliability assessment of constrained spherical deconvolution-based diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in individuals with chronic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Nicholas J; Peters, Sue; Borich, Michael R; Shirzad, Navid; Auriat, Angela M; Hayward, Kathryn S; Boyd, Lara A

    2016-01-15

    Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) is commonly used to assess white matter properties after stroke. Novel work is utilizing constrained spherical deconvolution (CSD) to estimate complex intra-voxel fiber architecture unaccounted for with tensor-based fiber tractography. However, the reliability of CSD-based tractography has not been established in people with chronic stroke. Establishing the reliability of CSD-based DW-MRI in chronic stroke. High-resolution DW-MRI was performed in ten adults with chronic stroke during two separate sessions. Deterministic region of interest-based fiber tractography using CSD was performed by two raters. Mean fractional anisotropy (FA), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), tract number, and tract volume were extracted from reconstructed fiber pathways in the corticospinal tract (CST) and superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF). Callosal fiber pathways connecting the primary motor cortices were also evaluated. Inter-rater and test-retest reliability were determined by intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). ICCs revealed excellent reliability for FA and ADC in ipsilesional (0.86-1.00; preliability for all metrics in callosal fibers (0.85-1.00; preliable approach to evaluate FA and ADC in major white matter pathways, in chronic stroke. Future work should address the reproducibility and utility of CSD-based metrics of tract number and tract volume. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A reliability-based approach of fastest routes planning in dynamic traffic network under emergency management situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Sun

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to establish an available emergency management system, it is important to conduct effective evacuation with reliable and real time optimal route plans. This paper aims at creating a route finding strategy by considering the time dependent factors as well as uncertainties that may be encountered during the emergency management system. To combine dynamic features with the level of reliability in the process of fastest route planning, the speed distribution of typical intercity roads is studied in depth, and the strategy of modifying real time speed to a more reliable value based on speed distribution is proposed. Two algorithms of route planning have been developed to find three optimal routes with the shortest travel time and the reliability of 0.9. In order to validate the new strategy, experimental implementation of the route planning method is conducted based on road speed information acquired by field study. The results show that the proposed strategy might provide more reliable routes in dynamic traffic networks by conservatively treating roads with large speed discretion or with relative extreme real speed value.

  3. Condition-based fault tree analysis (CBFTA): A new method for improved fault tree analysis (FTA), reliability and safety calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shalev, Dan M.; Tiran, Joseph

    2007-01-01

    Condition-based maintenance methods have changed systems reliability in general and individual systems in particular. Yet, this change does not affect system reliability analysis. System fault tree analysis (FTA) is performed during the design phase. It uses components failure rates derived from available sources as handbooks, etc. Condition-based fault tree analysis (CBFTA) starts with the known FTA. Condition monitoring (CM) methods applied to systems (e.g. vibration analysis, oil analysis, electric current analysis, bearing CM, electric motor CM, and so forth) are used to determine updated failure rate values of sensitive components. The CBFTA method accepts updated failure rates and applies them to the FTA. The CBFTA recalculates periodically the top event (TE) failure rate (λ TE ) thus determining the probability of system failure and the probability of successful system operation-i.e. the system's reliability. FTA is a tool for enhancing system reliability during the design stages. But, it has disadvantages, mainly it does not relate to a specific system undergoing maintenance. CBFTA is tool for updating reliability values of a specific system and for calculating the residual life according to the system's monitored conditions. Using CBFTA, the original FTA is ameliorated to a practical tool for use during the system's field life phase, not just during system design phase. This paper describes the CBFTA method and its advantages are demonstrated by an example

  4. Human-centered modeling in human reliability analysis: some trends based on case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosneron-Dupin, F.; Reer, B.; Heslinga, G.; Straeter, O.; Gerdes, V.; Saliou, G.; Ullwer, W.

    1997-01-01

    As an informal working group of researchers from France, Germany and The Netherlands created in 1993, the EARTH association is investigating significant subjects in the field of human reliability analysis (HRA). Our initial review of cases from nuclear operating experience showed that decision-based unrequired actions (DUA) contribute to risk significantly on the one hand. On the other hand, our evaluation of current HRA methods showed that these methods do not cover such actions adequately. Especially, practice-oriented guidelines for their predictive identification are lacking. We assumed that a basic cause for such difficulties was that these methods actually use a limited representation of the stimulus-organism-response (SOR) paradigm. We proposed a human-centered model, which better highlights the active role of the operators and the importance of their culture, attitudes and goals. This orientation was encouraged by our review of current HRA research activities. We therefore decided to envisage progress by identifying cognitive tendencies in the context of operating and simulator experience. For this purpose, advanced approaches for retrospective event analysis were discussed. Some orientations for improvements were proposed. By analyzing cases, various cognitive tendencies were identified, together with useful information about their context. Some of them match psychological findings already published in the literature, some of them are not covered adequately by the literature that we reviewed. Finally, this exploratory study shows that contextual and case-illustrated findings about cognitive tendencies provide useful help for the predictive identification of DUA in HRA. More research should be carried out to complement our findings and elaborate more detailed and systematic guidelines for using them in HRA studies

  5. Test-retest reliability of computer-based video analysis of general movements in healthy term-born infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Susanne Collier; Støen, Ragnhild; Sæther, Rannei; Jensenius, Alexander Refsum; Adde, Lars

    2015-10-01

    A computer-based video analysis has recently been presented for quantitative assessment of general movements (GMs). This method's test-retest reliability, however, has not yet been evaluated. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the test-retest reliability of computer-based video analysis of GMs, and to explore the association between computer-based video analysis and the temporal organization of fidgety movements (FMs). Test-retest reliability study. 75 healthy, term-born infants were recorded twice the same day during the FMs period using a standardized video set-up. The computer-based movement variables "quantity of motion mean" (Qmean), "quantity of motion standard deviation" (QSD) and "centroid of motion standard deviation" (CSD) were analyzed, reflecting the amount of motion and the variability of the spatial center of motion of the infant, respectively. In addition, the association between the variable CSD and the temporal organization of FMs was explored. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC 1.1 and ICC 3.1) were calculated to assess test-retest reliability. The ICC values for the variables CSD, Qmean and QSD were 0.80, 0.80 and 0.86 for ICC (1.1), respectively; and 0.80, 0.86 and 0.90 for ICC (3.1), respectively. There were significantly lower CSD values in the recordings with continual FMs compared to the recordings with intermittent FMs (ptest-retest reliability of computer-based video analysis of GMs, and a significant association between our computer-based video analysis and the temporal organization of FMs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Development, construct validity and test–retest reliability of a field-based wheelchair mobility performance test for wheelchair basketball

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Witte, AMH; Hoozemans, MJM; Berger, MAM; van der Slikke, R.M.A.; van der Woude, LHV; Veeger, H.E.J.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and describe a wheelchair mobility performance test in wheelchair basketball and to assess its construct validity and reliability. To mimic mobility performance of wheelchair basketball matches in a standardised manner, a test was designed based on observation

  7. The Development of the Functional Literacy Experience Scale Based upon Ecological Theory (FLESBUET) and Validity-Reliability Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özenç, Emine Gül; Dogan, M. Cihangir

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to perform a validity-reliability test by developing the Functional Literacy Experience Scale based upon Ecological Theory (FLESBUET) for primary education students. The study group includes 209 fifth grade students at Sabri Taskin Primary School in the Kartal District of Istanbul, Turkey during the 2010-2011 academic year.…

  8. Content Validity and Inter-Rater Reliability of the Halliwick-Concept-Based Instrument "Swimming with Independent Measure"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srsen, Katja Groleger; Vidmar, Gaj; Pikl, Masa; Vrecar, Irena; Burja, Cirila; Krusec, Klavdija

    2012-01-01

    The Halliwick concept is widely used in different settings to promote joyful movement in water and swimming. To assess the swimming skills and progression of an individual swimmer, a valid and reliable measure should be used. The Halliwick-concept-based Swimming with Independent Measure (SWIM) was introduced for this purpose. We aimed to determine…

  9. Development, construct validity and test-retest reliability of a field-based wheelchair mobility performance test for wheelchair basketball

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Witte, Annemarie M. H.; Hoozemans, Marco J. M.; Berger, Monique A. M.; van der Slikke, Rienk M. A.; van der Woude, Lucas H. V.; Veeger, Dirkjan (H. E. J)

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and describe a wheelchair mobility performance test in wheelchair basketball and to assess its construct validity and reliability. To mimic mobility performance of wheelchair basketball matches in a standardised manner, a test was designed based on observation of

  10. Development, construct validity and test–retest reliability of a field-based wheelchair mobility performance test for wheelchair basketball

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Witte, Annemarie M H; Hoozemans, Marco J M; Berger, Monique A M; van der Slikke, Rienk M A; van der Woude, Lucas H V; Veeger, Dirkjan (H E J)

    The aim of this study was to develop and describe a wheelchair mobility performance test in wheelchair basketball and to assess its construct validity and reliability. To mimic mobility performance of wheelchair basketball matches in a standardised manner, a test was designed based on observation of

  11. Reliability of Interaural Time Difference-Based Localization Training in Elderly Individuals with Speech-in-Noise Perception Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delphi, Maryam; Lotfi, M-Yones; Moossavi, Abdollah; Bakhshi, Enayatollah; Banimostafa, Maryam

    2017-09-01

    Previous studies have shown that interaural-time-difference (ITD) training can improve localization ability. Surprisingly little is, however, known about localization training vis-à-vis speech perception in noise based on interaural time difference in the envelope (ITD ENV). We sought to investigate the reliability of an ITD ENV-based training program in speech-in-noise perception among elderly individuals with normal hearing and speech-in-noise disorder. The present interventional study was performed during 2016. Sixteen elderly men between 55 and 65 years of age with the clinical diagnosis of normal hearing up to 2000 Hz and speech-in-noise perception disorder participated in this study. The training localization program was based on changes in ITD ENV. In order to evaluate the reliability of the training program, we performed speech-in-noise tests before the training program, immediately afterward, and then at 2 months' follow-up. The reliability of the training program was analyzed using the Friedman test and the SPSS software. Significant statistical differences were shown in the mean scores of speech-in-noise perception between the 3 time points (P=0.001). The results also indicated no difference in the mean scores of speech-in-noise perception between the 2 time points of immediately after the training program and 2 months' follow-up (P=0.212). The present study showed the reliability of an ITD ENV-based localization training in elderly individuals with speech-in-noise perception disorder.

  12. Reliability-Based Planning of Inspection, Operation and Maintenance for Offshore Oil & Gas Structures and Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    Reliability-based cost-optimal planning of inspection, maintenance and operation has many applications. In this paper applications for planning of inspections for oil & gas jacket structures and of operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines are described and illustrated by examples....

  13. On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

    2018-01-06

    This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks' statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies.

  14. Structural reliability calculation method based on the dual neural network and direct integration method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haibin; He, Yun; Nie, Xiaobo

    2018-01-01

    Structural reliability analysis under uncertainty is paid wide attention by engineers and scholars due to reflecting the structural characteristics and the bearing actual situation. The direct integration method, started from the definition of reliability theory, is easy to be understood, but there are still mathematics difficulties in the calculation of multiple integrals. Therefore, a dual neural network method is proposed for calculating multiple integrals in this paper. Dual neural network consists of two neural networks. The neural network A is used to learn the integrand function, and the neural network B is used to simulate the original function. According to the derivative relationships between the network output and the network input, the neural network B is derived from the neural network A. On this basis, the performance function of normalization is employed in the proposed method to overcome the difficulty of multiple integrations and to improve the accuracy for reliability calculations. The comparisons between the proposed method and Monte Carlo simulation method, Hasofer-Lind method, the mean value first-order second moment method have demonstrated that the proposed method is an efficient and accurate reliability method for structural reliability problems.

  15. On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

    2018-01-01

    This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks’ statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies. PMID:29316614

  16. Development of reliability database for safety-related I and C component based on operating experience of KSNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, S. C.; Han, S. H.; Min, K. R.

    2001-01-01

    Reliability database for safety-related I and C components has been developed, based on domestic operating experience of total 8.63 years from four units-Yonggwang Units 3 and 4, and Ulchin Units 3 and 4. This plant-specific data of safety-related I and C components has compared with operating experience for CE-supplied plants in U.S.A. As a results, we found that on the whole the domestic reliability data was similar to CE-supplied plants in USA, through lots of failures occurred early in the commercial operation were included in our analyses without percolation

  17. Reliability-centered maintenance for ground-based large optical telescopes and radio antenna arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchiori, G.; Formentin, F.; Rampini, F.

    2014-07-01

    In the last years, EIE GROUP has been more and more involved in large optical telescopes and radio antennas array projects. In this frame, the paper describes a fundamental aspect of the Logistic Support Analysis (LSA) process, that is the application of the Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodology for the generation of maintenance plans for ground-based large optical telescopes and radio antennas arrays. This helps maintenance engineers to make sure that the telescopes continue to work properly, doing what their users require them to do in their present operating conditions. The main objective of the RCM process is to establish the complete maintenance regime, with the safe minimum required maintenance, carried out without any risk to personnel, telescope and subsystems. At the same time, a correct application of the RCM allows to increase the cost effectiveness, telescope uptime and items availability, and to provide greater understanding of the level of risk that the organization is managing. At the same time, engineers shall make a great effort since the initial phase of the project to obtain a telescope requiring easy maintenance activities and simple replacement of the major assemblies, taking special care on the accesses design and items location, implementation and design of special lifting equipment and handling devices for the heavy items. This maintenance engineering framework is based on seven points, which lead to the main steps of the RCM program. The initial steps of the RCM process consist of: system selection and data collection (MTBF, MTTR, etc.), definition of system boundaries and operating context, telescope description with the use of functional block diagrams, and the running of a FMECA to address the dominant causes of equipment failure and to lay down the Critical Items List. In the second part of the process the RCM logic is applied, which helps to determine the appropriate maintenance tasks for each identified failure mode. Once

  18. Application of fuzzy-MOORA method: Ranking of components for reliability estimation of component-based software systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeeshan Ali Siddiqui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Component-based software system (CBSS development technique is an emerging discipline that promises to take software development into a new era. As hardware systems are presently being constructed from kits of parts, software systems may also be assembled from components. It is more reliable to reuse software than to create. It is the glue code and individual components reliability that contribute to the reliability of the overall system. Every component contributes to overall system reliability according to the number of times it is being used, some components are of critical usage, known as usage frequency of component. The usage frequency decides the weight of each component. According to their weights, each component contributes to the overall reliability of the system. Therefore, ranking of components may be obtained by analyzing their reliability impacts on overall application. In this paper, we propose the application of fuzzy multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis, Fuzzy-MOORA. The method helps us find the best suitable alternative, software component, from a set of available feasible alternatives named software components. It is an accurate and easy to understand tool for solving multi-criteria decision making problems that have imprecise and vague evaluation data. By the use of ratio analysis, the proposed method determines the most suitable alternative among all possible alternatives, and dimensionless measurement will realize the job of ranking of components for estimating CBSS reliability in a non-subjective way. Finally, three case studies are shown to illustrate the use of the proposed technique.

  19. A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

    Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

  20. Reliability modeling of degradation of products with multiple performance characteristics based on gamma processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan Zhengqiang; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2011-01-01

    Many highly reliable products usually have complex structure, with their reliability being evaluated by two or more performance characteristics. In certain physical situations, the degradation of these performance characteristics would be always positive and strictly increasing. In such a case, the gamma process is usually considered as a degradation process due to its independent and non-negative increments properties. In this paper, we suppose that a product has two dependent performance characteristics and that their degradation can be modeled by gamma processes. For such a bivariate degradation involving two performance characteristics, we propose to use a bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders distribution and its marginal distributions to approximate the reliability function. Inferential method for the corresponding model parameters is then developed. Finally, for an illustration of the proposed model and method, a numerical example about fatigue cracks is discussed and some computational results are presented.

  1. The specification-based validation of reliable multicast protocol: Problem Report. M.S. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yunqing

    1995-01-01

    Reliable Multicast Protocol (RMP) is a communication protocol that provides an atomic, totally ordered, reliable multicast service on top of unreliable IP multicasting. In this report, we develop formal models for RMP using existing automated verification systems, and perform validation on the formal RMP specifications. The validation analysis help identifies some minor specification and design problems. We also use the formal models of RMP to generate a test suite for conformance testing of the implementation. Throughout the process of RMP development, we follow an iterative, interactive approach that emphasizes concurrent and parallel progress of implementation and verification processes. Through this approach, we incorporate formal techniques into our development process, promote a common understanding for the protocol, increase the reliability of our software, and maintain high fidelity between the specifications of RMP and its implementation.

  2. Data mining-based coefficient of influence factors optimization of test paper reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Peiyao; Jiang, Huiping; Wei, Jieyao

    2018-05-01

    Test is a significant part of the teaching process. It demonstrates the final outcome of school teaching through teachers' teaching level and students' scores. The analysis of test paper is a complex operation that has the characteristics of non-linear relation in the length of the paper, time duration and the degree of difficulty. It is therefore difficult to optimize the coefficient of influence factors under different conditions in order to get text papers with clearly higher reliability with general methods [1]. With data mining techniques like Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Genetic Algorithm (GA), we can model the test paper analysis and optimize the coefficient of impact factors for higher reliability. It's easy to find that the combination of SVR and GA can get an effective advance in reliability from the test results. The optimal coefficient of influence factors optimization has a practicability in actual application, and the whole optimizing operation can offer model basis for test paper analysis.

  3. Maintenance strategy for tilting table of rolling mill based on reliability considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deshpande, V.S.; Modak, J.P.

    2003-01-01

    tilting tables are 14 scheduled on-condition tasks, 10 scheduled on-restoration tasks, seven scheduled discard task. Whereas for 14 failure modes no scheduled maintenance has been proposed. Existing maintenance schedule for tilting tables indicates the maintenance action as and when required. Hence RCM based schedule specifies that additional preventive maintenance tasks need to be executed as compared to none initially. Cost incurred for this can be offset from the savings accrued from reduction in loss of production due to repetitive breakdowns. The methodology of RCM adopted in western industries cannot be applied as it is to Indian industries because of labour oriented nature, partially computerised information systems, non-availability of the information about cost of loss of production due to breakdown and age-reliability pattern of equipment, insufficient maintenance database. These problems can be overcome by development of sound MMIS, formulation of RCM review group and imparting suitable training to acquire the relevant skills in RCM. Thus RCM methodology can be applied to Indian industry for reduction of breakdowns as well as optimisation of preventive maintenance cost. This can further boost up the prospects of Indian industry to offer the products at globally competitive prices

  4. Kuhn-Tucker optimization based reliability analysis for probabilistic finite elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. K.; Besterfield, G.; Lawrence, M.; Belytschko, T.

    1988-01-01

    The fusion of probability finite element method (PFEM) and reliability analysis for fracture mechanics is considered. Reliability analysis with specific application to fracture mechanics is presented, and computational procedures are discussed. Explicit expressions for the optimization procedure with regard to fracture mechanics are given. The results show the PFEM is a very powerful tool in determining the second-moment statistics. The method can determine the probability of failure or fracture subject to randomness in load, material properties and crack length, orientation, and location.

  5. Fault tolerant control of a three-phase three-wire shunt active filter system based on reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poure, P. [Laboratoire d' Instrumentation Electronique de Nancy LIEN, EA 3440, Nancy-Universite, Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, BP 239, 54506 Vandoeuvre Cedex (France); Weber, P.; Theilliol, D. [Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy UMR 7039, Nancy-Universite, CNRS, Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, BP 239, 54506 Vandoeuvre Cedex (France); Saadate, S. [Groupe de Recherches en Electrotechnique et Electronique de Nancy UMR 7037, Nancy-Universite, CNRS, Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, BP 239, 54506 Vandoeuvre Cedex (France)

    2009-02-15

    This paper deals with fault tolerant shunt three-phase three-wire active filter topologies for which reliability is very important in industry applications. The determination of the optimal reconfiguration structure among various ones with or without redundant components is discussed based on reliability criteria. First, the reconfiguration of the inverter is detailed and a fast fault diagnosis method for power semi-conductor or driver fault detection and compensation is presented. This method avoids false fault detection due to power semi-conductors switching. The control architecture and algorithm are studied and a fault tolerant control strategy is considered. Simulation results in open and short circuit cases validate the theoretical study. Finally, the reliability of the studied three-phase three-wire filter shunt active topologies is analyzed to determine the optimal one. (author)

  6. Asymmetric Programming: A Highly Reliable Metadata Allocation Strategy for MLC NAND Flash Memory-Based Sensor Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min; Liu, Zhaoqing; Qiao, Liyan

    2014-01-01

    While the NAND flash memory is widely used as the storage medium in modern sensor systems, the aggressive shrinking of process geometry and an increase in the number of bits stored in each memory cell will inevitably degrade the reliability of NAND flash memory. In particular, it's critical to enhance metadata reliability, which occupies only a small portion of the storage space, but maintains the critical information of the file system and the address translations of the storage system. Metadata damage will cause the system to crash or a large amount of data to be lost. This paper presents Asymmetric Programming, a highly reliable metadata allocation strategy for MLC NAND flash memory storage systems. Our technique exploits for the first time the property of the multi-page architecture of MLC NAND flash memory to improve the reliability of metadata. The basic idea is to keep metadata in most significant bit (MSB) pages which are more reliable than least significant bit (LSB) pages. Thus, we can achieve relatively low bit error rates for metadata. Based on this idea, we propose two strategies to optimize address mapping and garbage collection. We have implemented Asymmetric Programming on a real hardware platform. The experimental results show that Asymmetric Programming can achieve a reduction in the number of page errors of up to 99.05% with the baseline error correction scheme. PMID:25310473

  7. Comprehensive reliability allocation method for CNC lathes based on cubic transformed functions of failure mode and effects analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhou; Zhu, Yunpeng; Ren, Hongrui; Zhang, Yimin

    2015-03-01

    Reliability allocation of computerized numerical controlled(CNC) lathes is very important in industry. Traditional allocation methods only focus on high-failure rate components rather than moderate failure rate components, which is not applicable in some conditions. Aiming at solving the problem of CNC lathes reliability allocating, a comprehensive reliability allocation method based on cubic transformed functions of failure modes and effects analysis(FMEA) is presented. Firstly, conventional reliability allocation methods are introduced. Then the limitations of direct combination of comprehensive allocation method with the exponential transformed FMEA method are investigated. Subsequently, a cubic transformed function is established in order to overcome these limitations. Properties of the new transformed functions are discussed by considering the failure severity and the failure occurrence. Designers can choose appropriate transform amplitudes according to their requirements. Finally, a CNC lathe and a spindle system are used as an example to verify the new allocation method. Seven criteria are considered to compare the results of the new method with traditional methods. The allocation results indicate that the new method is more flexible than traditional methods. By employing the new cubic transformed function, the method covers a wider range of problems in CNC reliability allocation without losing the advantages of traditional methods.

  8. Asymmetric Programming: A Highly Reliable Metadata Allocation Strategy for MLC NAND Flash Memory-Based Sensor Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Huang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available While the NAND flash memory is widely used as the storage medium in modern sensor systems, the aggressive shrinking of process geometry and an increase in the number of bits stored in each memory cell will inevitably degrade the reliability of NAND flash memory. In particular, it’s critical to enhance metadata reliability, which occupies only a small portion of the storage space, but maintains the critical information of the file system and the address translations of the storage system. Metadata damage will cause the system to crash or a large amount of data to be lost. This paper presents Asymmetric Programming, a highly reliable metadata allocation strategy for MLC NAND flash memory storage systems. Our technique exploits for the first time the property of the multi-page architecture of MLC NAND flash memory to improve the reliability of metadata. The basic idea is to keep metadata in most significant bit (MSB pages which are more reliable than least significant bit (LSB pages. Thus, we can achieve relatively low bit error rates for metadata. Based on this idea, we propose two strategies to optimize address mapping and garbage collection. We have implemented Asymmetric Programming on a real hardware platform. The experimental results show that Asymmetric Programming can achieve a reduction in the number of page errors of up to 99.05% with the baseline error correction scheme.

  9. Self-Tuning Method for Increased Obstacle Detection Reliability Based on Internet of Things LiDAR Sensor Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castaño, Fernando; Beruvides, Gerardo; Villalonga, Alberto; Haber, Rodolfo E

    2018-05-10

    On-chip LiDAR sensors for vehicle collision avoidance are a rapidly expanding area of research and development. The assessment of reliable obstacle detection using data collected by LiDAR sensors has become a key issue that the scientific community is actively exploring. The design of a self-tuning methodology and its implementation are presented in this paper, to maximize the reliability of LiDAR sensors network for obstacle detection in the 'Internet of Things' (IoT) mobility scenarios. The Webots Automobile 3D simulation tool for emulating sensor interaction in complex driving environments is selected in order to achieve that objective. Furthermore, a model-based framework is defined that employs a point-cloud clustering technique, and an error-based prediction model library that is composed of a multilayer perceptron neural network, and k-nearest neighbors and linear regression models. Finally, a reinforcement learning technique, specifically a Q-learning method, is implemented to determine the number of LiDAR sensors that are required to increase sensor reliability for obstacle localization tasks. In addition, a IoT driving assistance user scenario, connecting a five LiDAR sensor network is designed and implemented to validate the accuracy of the computational intelligence-based framework. The results demonstrated that the self-tuning method is an appropriate strategy to increase the reliability of the sensor network while minimizing detection thresholds.

  10. Reliability and validity of a novel Kinect-based software program for measuring posture, balance and side-bending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grooten, Wilhelmus Johannes Andreas; Sandberg, Lisa; Ressman, John; Diamantoglou, Nicolas; Johansson, Elin; Rasmussen-Barr, Eva

    2018-01-08

    Clinical examinations are subjective and often show a low validity and reliability. Objective and highly reliable quantitative assessments are available in laboratory settings using 3D motion analysis, but these systems are too expensive to use for simple clinical examinations. Qinematic™ is an interactive movement analyses system based on the Kinect camera and is an easy-to-use clinical measurement system for assessing posture, balance and side-bending. The aim of the study was to test the test-retest the reliability and construct validity of Qinematic™ in a healthy population, and to calculate the minimal clinical differences for the variables of interest. A further aim was to identify the discriminative validity of Qinematic™ in people with low-back pain (LBP). We performed a test-retest reliability study (n = 37) with around 1 week between the occasions, a construct validity study (n = 30) in which Qinematic™ was tested against a 3D motion capture system, and a discriminative validity study, in which a group of people with LBP (n = 20) was compared to healthy controls (n = 17). We tested a large range of psychometric properties of 18 variables in three sections: posture (head and pelvic position, weight distribution), balance (sway area and velocity in single- and double-leg stance), and side-bending. The majority of the variables in the posture and balance sections, showed poor/fair reliability (ICC validity (Spearman reliability (ICC =0.898), excellent validity (r = 0.943), and Qinematic™ could differentiate between LPB and healthy individuals (p = 0.012). This paper shows that a novel software program (Qinematic™) based on the Kinect camera for measuring balance, posture and side-bending has poor psychometric properties, indicating that the variables on balance and posture should not be used for monitoring individual changes over time or in research. Future research on the dynamic tasks of Qinematic™ is warranted.

  11. Test-retest reliability and responsiveness of the Barthel Index-based Supplementary Scales in patients with stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Chen; Yu, Wan-Hui; Hsueh, I-Ping; Chen, Sheng-Shiung; Hsieh, Ching-Lin

    2017-10-01

    A lack of evidence on the test-retest reliability and responsiveness limits the utility of the BI-based Supplementary Scales (BI-SS) in both clinical and research settings. To examine the test-retest reliability and responsiveness of the BI-based Supplementary Scales (BI-SS) in patients with stroke. A repeated-assessments design (1 week apart) was used to examine the test-retest reliability of the BI-SS. For the responsiveness study, the participants were assessed with the BI-SS and BI (treated as an external criterion) at admission to and discharge from rehabilitation wards. Seven outpatient rehabilitation units and one inpatient rehabilitation unit. Outpatients with chronic stroke. Eighty-four outpatients with chronic stroke participated in the test-retest reliability study. Fifty-seven inpatients completed baseline and follow-up assessments in the responsiveness study. For the test-retest reliability study, the values of the intra-class correlation coefficient and the overall percentage of minimal detectable change for the Ability Scale and Self-perceived Difficulty Scale were 0.97, 12.8%, and 0.78, 35.8%, respectively. For the responsiveness study, the standardized effect size and standardized response mean (representing internal responsiveness) of the Ability Scale and Self-perceived Difficulty Scale were 1.17 and 1.56, and 0.78 and 0.89, respectively. Regarding external responsiveness, the change in score of the Ability Scale had significant and moderate association with that of the BI (r=0.61, Ptest-retest reliability and sufficient responsiveness for patients with stroke. However, the Self-perceived Difficulty Scale of the BI-SS has substantial random measurement error and insufficient external responsiveness, which may affect its utility in clinical settings. The findings of this study provide empirical evidence of psychometric properties of the BI-SS for assessing ability and self-perceived difficulty of ADL in patients with stroke.

  12. Reliability of lower limb alignment measures using an established landmark-based method with a customized computer software program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sled, Elizabeth A.; Sheehy, Lisa M.; Felson, David T.; Costigan, Patrick A.; Lam, Miu; Cooke, T. Derek V.

    2010-01-01

    The objective of the study was to evaluate the reliability of frontal plane lower limb alignment measures using a landmark-based method by (1) comparing inter- and intra-reader reliability between measurements of alignment obtained manually with those using a computer program, and (2) determining inter- and intra-reader reliability of computer-assisted alignment measures from full-limb radiographs. An established method for measuring alignment was used, involving selection of 10 femoral and tibial bone landmarks. 1) To compare manual and computer methods, we used digital images and matching paper copies of five alignment patterns simulating healthy and malaligned limbs drawn using AutoCAD. Seven readers were trained in each system. Paper copies were measured manually and repeat measurements were performed daily for 3 days, followed by a similar routine with the digital images using the computer. 2) To examine the reliability of computer-assisted measures from full-limb radiographs, 100 images (200 limbs) were selected as a random sample from 1,500 full-limb digital radiographs which were part of the Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) Study. Three trained readers used the software program to measure alignment twice from the batch of 100 images, with two or more weeks between batch handling. Manual and computer measures of alignment showed excellent agreement (intraclass correlations [ICCs] 0.977 – 0.999 for computer analysis; 0.820 – 0.995 for manual measures). The computer program applied to full-limb radiographs produced alignment measurements with high inter- and intra-reader reliability (ICCs 0.839 – 0.998). In conclusion, alignment measures using a bone landmark-based approach and a computer program were highly reliable between multiple readers. PMID:19882339

  13. The effect of a new intercity expressway based on travel time reliability using electronic toll collection data

    OpenAIRE

    Yamazaki, H.; Uno, N.; Kurauchi, F.

    2012-01-01

    This study describes a method of evaluating the level of service of road networks, based on the average travel time and travel time reliability using electronic toll collection (ETC) data. The authors focused on the variance in travel time under normal circumstances, thus, traffic accidents were removed from the database, and any effect of individual vehicle preference was excluded. They evaluated the travel time distribution based on the average travel time from ETC data for each 15-min inte...

  14. Knowledge-base for the new human reliability analysis method, A Technique for Human Error Analysis (ATHEANA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, S.E.; Wreathall, J.; Thompson, C.M., Drouin, M.; Bley, D.C.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes the knowledge base for the application of the new human reliability analysis (HRA) method, a ''A Technique for Human Error Analysis'' (ATHEANA). Since application of ATHEANA requires the identification of previously unmodeled human failure events, especially errors of commission, and associated error-forcing contexts (i.e., combinations of plant conditions and performance shaping factors), this knowledge base is an essential aid for the HRA analyst

  15. Reliability-Based and Cost-Oriented Product Optimization Integrating Fuzzy Reasoning Petri Nets, Interval Expert Evaluation and Cultural-Based DMOPSO Using Crowding Distance Sorting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoxi Hong

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization, the target product reliability is apportioned to subsystems or components to achieve the maximum reliability and minimum cost. Main challenges to conducting such optimization design lie in how to simultaneously consider subsystem division, uncertain evaluation provided by experts for essential factors, and dynamic propagation of product failure. To overcome these problems, a reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization method integrating fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN, interval expert evaluation and cultural-based dynamic multi-objective particle swarm optimization (DMOPSO using crowding distance sorting is proposed in this paper. Subsystem division is performed based on failure decoupling, and then subsystem weights are calculated with FRPN reflecting dynamic and uncertain failure propagation, as well as interval expert evaluation considering six essential factors. A mathematical model of reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization is established, and the cultural-based DMOPSO with crowding distance sorting is utilized to obtain the optimized design scheme. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method are demonstrated by the numerical example of the optimization design for a computer numerically controlled (CNC machine tool.

  16. Reliability data banks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.

    1991-01-01

    Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)

  17. Transition from Partial Factors Method to Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment in Structural Design

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Marek, Pavel; Guštar, M.; Permaul, K.

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (1999), s. 105-118 ISSN 0266-8920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA103/94/0562; GA ČR GV103/96/K034 Keywords : reliability * safety * failure * durability * Monte Carlo method Subject RIV: JM - Building Engineering Impact factor: 0.522, year: 1999

  18. Temporal Stability of Strength-Based Assessments: Test-Retest Reliability of Student and Teacher Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romer, Natalie; Merrell, Kenneth W.

    2013-01-01

    This study focused on evaluating the temporal stability of self-reported and teacher-reported perceptions of students' social and emotional skills and assets. We used a test-retest reliability procedure over repeated administrations of the child, adolescent, and teacher versions of the "Social-Emotional Assets and Resilience Scales".…

  19. The design and use of reliability data base with analysis tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doorepall, J.; Cooke, R.; Paulsen, J.; Hokstadt, P.

    1996-06-01

    With the advent of sophisticated computer tools, it is possible to give a distributed population of users direct access to reliability component operational histories. This allows the user a greater freedom in defining statistical populations of components and selecting failure modes. However, the reliability data analyst`s current analytical instrumentarium is not adequate for this purpose. The terminology used in organizing and gathering reliability data is standardized, and the statistical methods used in analyzing this data are not always suitably chosen. This report attempts to establish a baseline with regard to terminology and analysis methods, to support the use of a new analysis tool. It builds on results obtained in several projects for the ESTEC and SKI on the design of reliability databases. Starting with component socket time histories, we identify a sequence of questions which should be answered prior to the employment of analytical methods. These questions concern the homogeneity and stationarity of (possible dependent) competing failure modes and the independence of competing failure modes. Statistical tests, some of them new, are proposed for answering these questions. Attention is given to issues of non-identifiability of competing risk and clustering of failure-repair events. These ideas have been implemented in an analysis tool for grazing component socket time histories, and illustrative results are presented. The appendix provides background on statistical tests and competing failure modes. (au) 4 tabs., 17 ills., 61 refs.

  20. Chest computed tomography-based scoring of thoracic sarcoidosis: Inter-rater reliability of CT abnormalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heuvel, D.A.V. den; Es, H.W. van; Heesewijk, J.P. van; Spee, M. [St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Department of Radiology, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Jong, P.A. de [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Zanen, P.; Grutters, J.C. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Division Heart and Lungs, Utrecht (Netherlands); St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Center of Interstitial Lung Diseases, Department of Pulmonology, Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

    2015-09-15

    To determine inter-rater reliability of sarcoidosis-related computed tomography (CT) findings that can be used for scoring of thoracic sarcoidosis. CT images of 51 patients with sarcoidosis were scored by five chest radiologists for various abnormal CT findings (22 in total) encountered in thoracic sarcoidosis. Using intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) analysis, inter-rater reliability was analysed and reported according to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies (GRRAS) criteria. A pre-specified sub-analysis was performed to investigate the effect of training. Scoring was trained in a distinct set of 15 scans in which all abnormal CT findings were represented. Median age of the 51 patients (36 men, 70 %) was 43 years (range 26 - 64 years). All radiographic stages were present in this group. ICC ranged from 0.91 for honeycombing to 0.11 for nodular margin (sharp versus ill-defined). The ICC was above 0.60 in 13 of the 22 abnormal findings. Sub-analysis for the best-trained observers demonstrated an ICC improvement for all abnormal findings and values above 0.60 for 16 of the 22 abnormalities. In our cohort, reliability between raters was acceptable for 16 thoracic sarcoidosis-related abnormal CT findings. (orig.)

  1. Estimating reliability coefficients with heterogeneous item weightings using Stata: A factor based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boermans, M.A.; Kattenberg, M.A.C.

    2011-01-01

    We show how to estimate a Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient in Stata after running a principal component or factor analysis. Alpha evaluates to what extent items measure the same underlying content when the items are combined into a scale or used for latent variable. Stata allows for testing

  2. Estimation of electromagnetic pumps reliability based on the results of their exploitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vitkovskij, I.V.; Kirillov, I.R.; Chajka, P.Yu.; Kryuchkov, E.A.; Poplavskij, V.M.; Nosov, Yu.V.; Oshkanov, N.N.

    2007-01-01

    Main factors, determining the service life of induction electromagnetic pumps (IEP), are analyzed. It is shown that the IEP serviceability depends mainly on the winding reliability. The main damaging factors, acting on the windings, are noted. The expressions for calculation of the failure intensity for the coil and case insulations are obtained [ru

  3. The design and use of reliability data base with analysis tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorepall, J.; Cooke, R.; Paulsen, J.; Hokstadt, P.

    1996-06-01

    With the advent of sophisticated computer tools, it is possible to give a distributed population of users direct access to reliability component operational histories. This allows the user a greater freedom in defining statistical populations of components and selecting failure modes. However, the reliability data analyst's current analytical instrumentarium is not adequate for this purpose. The terminology used in organizing and gathering reliability data is standardized, and the statistical methods used in analyzing this data are not always suitably chosen. This report attempts to establish a baseline with regard to terminology and analysis methods, to support the use of a new analysis tool. It builds on results obtained in several projects for the ESTEC and SKI on the design of reliability databases. Starting with component socket time histories, we identify a sequence of questions which should be answered prior to the employment of analytical methods. These questions concern the homogeneity and stationarity of (possible dependent) competing failure modes and the independence of competing failure modes. Statistical tests, some of them new, are proposed for answering these questions. Attention is given to issues of non-identifiability of competing risk and clustering of failure-repair events. These ideas have been implemented in an analysis tool for grazing component socket time histories, and illustrative results are presented. The appendix provides background on statistical tests and competing failure modes. (au) 4 tabs., 17 ills., 61 refs

  4. The Reliability and Effectiveness of a Radar-Based Animal Detection System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-22

    This document contains data on the reliability and effectiveness of an animal detection system along U.S. Hwy 95 near Bonners Ferry, Idaho. The system uses a Doppler radar to detect large mammals (e.g., deer and elk) when they approach the highway. T...

  5. Chest computed tomography-based scoring of thoracic sarcoidosis: Inter-rater reliability of CT abnormalities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuvel, D.A.V. den; Es, H.W. van; Heesewijk, J.P. van; Spee, M.; Jong, P.A. de; Zanen, P.; Grutters, J.C.

    2015-01-01

    To determine inter-rater reliability of sarcoidosis-related computed tomography (CT) findings that can be used for scoring of thoracic sarcoidosis. CT images of 51 patients with sarcoidosis were scored by five chest radiologists for various abnormal CT findings (22 in total) encountered in thoracic sarcoidosis. Using intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) analysis, inter-rater reliability was analysed and reported according to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies (GRRAS) criteria. A pre-specified sub-analysis was performed to investigate the effect of training. Scoring was trained in a distinct set of 15 scans in which all abnormal CT findings were represented. Median age of the 51 patients (36 men, 70 %) was 43 years (range 26 - 64 years). All radiographic stages were present in this group. ICC ranged from 0.91 for honeycombing to 0.11 for nodular margin (sharp versus ill-defined). The ICC was above 0.60 in 13 of the 22 abnormal findings. Sub-analysis for the best-trained observers demonstrated an ICC improvement for all abnormal findings and values above 0.60 for 16 of the 22 abnormalities. In our cohort, reliability between raters was acceptable for 16 thoracic sarcoidosis-related abnormal CT findings. (orig.)

  6. The Reliability and Effectiveness of a Radar-Based Animal Detection System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    This document contains data on the reliability and effectiveness of an animal detection system along U.S. Hwy 95 near Bonners Ferry, Idaho. The system uses a Doppler radar to detect large mammals (e.g., deer and elk) when they approach the highway. T...

  7. Reliability of smartphone-based gait measurements for quantification of physical activity/inactivity levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebara, Takeshi; Azuma, Ryohei; Shoji, Naoto; Matsukawa, Tsuyoshi; Yamada, Yasuyuki; Akiyama, Tomohiro; Kurihara, Takahiro; Yamada, Shota

    2017-11-25

    Objective measurements using built-in smartphone sensors that can measure physical activity/inactivity in daily working life have the potential to provide a new approach to assessing workers' health effects. The aim of this study was to elucidate the characteristics and reliability of built-in step counting sensors on smartphones for development of an easy-to-use objective measurement tool that can be applied in ergonomics or epidemiological research. To evaluate the reliability of step counting sensors embedded in seven major smartphone models, the 6-minute walk test was conducted and the following analyses of sensor precision and accuracy were performed: 1) relationship between actual step count and step count detected by sensors, 2) reliability between smartphones of the same model, and 3) false detection rates when sitting during office work, while riding the subway, and driving. On five of the seven models, the inter-class correlations coefficient (ICC (3,1) ) showed high reliability with a range of 0.956-0.993. The other two models, however, had ranges of 0.443-0.504 and the relative error ratios of the sensor-detected step count to the actual step count were ±48.7%-49.4%. The level of agreement between the same models was ICC (3,1) : 0.992-0.998. The false detection rates differed between the sitting conditions. These results suggest the need for appropriate regulation of step counts measured by sensors, through means such as correction or calibration with a predictive model formula, in order to obtain the highly reliable measurement results that are sought in scientific investigation.

  8. Reliability of IGBT-based power devices in the viewpoint of applications in future power supply systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, J.

    2011-01-01

    IGBT-based high-voltage power devices will be key components for future renewable energy base of the society. Windmills in the range up to 10 MW use converters with IGBTs. HVDC systems with IGBT-based voltage source converters have the advantage of a lower level of harmonics, less efforts for filters and more possibilities for control. The power devices need a lifetime expectation of several ten years. The lifetime is determined by the reliability of the packaging technology. IGBTs are offered packaged in presspacks and modules. The presentation will have the focus on IGBT high power modules. Accelerated power cycling tests for to determine the end-of-life at given conditions and their results are shown. models to calculate the lifetime, and actual work in research for systems with increased reliability.

  9. Reliability Evaluation of Base-Metal-Electrode (BME) Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors for Space Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, David (Donghang)

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports reliability evaluation of BME ceramic capacitors for possible high reliability space-level applications. The study is focused on the construction and microstructure of BME capacitors and their impacts on the capacitor life reliability. First, the examinations of the construction and microstructure of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) BME capacitors show great variance in dielectric layer thickness, even among BME capacitors with the same rated voltage. Compared to PME (precious-metal-electrode) capacitors, BME capacitors exhibit a denser and more uniform microstructure, with an average grain size between 0.3 and approximately 0.5 micrometers, which is much less than that of most PME capacitors. The primary reasons that a BME capacitor can be fabricated with more internal electrode layers and less dielectric layer thickness is that it has a fine-grained microstructure and does not shrink much during ceramic sintering. This results in the BME capacitors a very high volumetric efficiency. The reliability of BME and PME capacitors was investigated using highly accelerated life testing (HALT) and regular life testing as per MIL-PRF-123. Most BME capacitors were found to fail· with an early dielectric wearout, followed by a rapid wearout failure mode during the HALT test. When most of the early wearout failures were removed, BME capacitors exhibited a minimum mean time-to-failure of more than 10(exp 5) years. Dielectric thickness was found to be a critical parameter for the reliability of BME capacitors. The number of stacked grains in a dielectric layer appears to play a significant role in determining BME capacitor reliability. Although dielectric layer thickness varies for a given rated voltage in BME capacitors, the number of stacked grains is relatively consistent, typically between 10 and 20. This may suggest that the number of grains per dielectric layer is more critical than the thickness itself for determining the rated voltage and the life

  10. A new reliability measure based on specified minimum distances before the locations of random variables in a finite interval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todinov, M.T.

    2004-01-01

    A new reliability measure is proposed and equations are derived which determine the probability of existence of a specified set of minimum gaps between random variables following a homogeneous Poisson process in a finite interval. Using the derived equations, a method is proposed for specifying the upper bound of the random variables' number density which guarantees that the probability of clustering of two or more random variables in a finite interval remains below a maximum acceptable level. It is demonstrated that even for moderate number densities the probability of clustering is substantial and should not be neglected in reliability calculations. In the important special case where the random variables are failure times, models have been proposed for determining the upper bound of the hazard rate which guarantees a set of minimum failure-free operating intervals before the random failures, with a specified probability. A model has also been proposed for determining the upper bound of the hazard rate which guarantees a minimum availability target. Using the models proposed, a new strategy, models and reliability tools have been developed for setting quantitative reliability requirements which consist of determining the intersection of the hazard rate envelopes (hazard rate upper bounds) which deliver a minimum failure-free operating period before random failures, a risk of premature failure below a maximum acceptable level and a minimum required availability. It is demonstrated that setting reliability requirements solely based on an availability target does not necessarily mean a low risk of premature failure. Even at a high availability level, the probability of premature failure can be substantial. For industries characterised by a high cost of failure, the reliability requirements should involve a hazard rate envelope limiting the risk of failure below a maximum acceptable level

  11. A human reliability based usability evaluation method for safety-critical software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, R. L.; Tran, T. Q.; Gertman, D. I.; Ragsdale, A.

    2006-01-01

    Boring and Gertman (2005) introduced a novel method that augments heuristic usability evaluation methods with that of the human reliability analysis method of SPAR-H. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to individual heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). Although this UEP is not a literal probability of error, it nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. This method allows one to seamlessly prioritize and identify usability issues (i.e., a higher UEP requires more immediate fixes). However, the original version of this method required the usability evaluator to assign priority weights to the final UEP, thus allowing the priority of a usability issue to differ among usability evaluators. The purpose of this paper is to explore an alternative approach to standardize the priority weighting of the UEP in an effort to improve the method's reliability. (authors)

  12. RICA: a reliable and image configurable arena for cyborg bumblebee based on CAN bus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Fan; Zheng, Nenggan; Xue, Lei; Xu, Kedi; Zheng, Xiaoxiang

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we designed a reliable and image configurable flight arena, RICA, for developing cyborg bumblebees. To meet the spatial and temporal requirements of bumblebees, the Controller Area Network (CAN) bus is adopted to interconnect the LED display modules to ensure the reliability and real-time performance of the arena system. Easily-configurable interfaces on a desktop computer implemented by python scripts are provided to transmit the visual patterns to the LED distributor online and configure RICA dynamically. The new arena system will be a power tool to investigate the quantitative relationship between the visual inputs and induced flight behaviors and also will be helpful to the visual-motor research in other related fields.

  13. Stochastic quasi-gradient based optimization algorithms for dynamic reliability applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourgeois, F.; Labeau, P.E.

    2001-01-01

    On one hand, PSA results are increasingly used in decision making, system management and optimization of system design. On the other hand, when severe accidental transients are considered, dynamic reliability appears appropriate to account for the complex interaction between the transitions between hardware configurations, the operator behavior and the dynamic evolution of the system. This paper presents an exploratory work in which the estimation of the system unreliability in a dynamic context is coupled with an optimization algorithm to determine the 'best' safety policy. Because some reliability parameters are likely to be distributed, the cost function to be minimized turns out to be a random variable. Stochastic programming techniques are therefore envisioned to determine an optimal strategy. Monte Carlo simulation is used at all stages of the computations, from the estimation of the system unreliability to that of the stochastic quasi-gradient. The optimization algorithm is illustrated on a HNO 3 supply system

  14. Atomistic Force Field for Pyridinium-Based Ionic Liquids: Reliable Transport Properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voroshylova, I. V.; Chaban, V. V.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable force field (FF) is a central issue in successful prediction of physical chemical properties via computer simulations. This work introduces refined FF parameters for six popular ionic liquids (ILs) of the pyridinium family (butylpyridinium tetrafluoroborate, bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)......Reliable force field (FF) is a central issue in successful prediction of physical chemical properties via computer simulations. This work introduces refined FF parameters for six popular ionic liquids (ILs) of the pyridinium family (butylpyridinium tetrafluoroborate, bis......(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide, dicyanamide, hexafluorophosphate, triflate, chloride). We elaborate a systematic procedure, which allows accounting for specific cationanion interactions in the liquid phase. Once these interactions are described accurately, all experimentally determined transport properties can be reproduced. We prove...... and elevated temperature. The developed atomistic models provide a systematic refinement upon the well-known Canongia LopesPadua (CL&P) FF. Together with the original CL&P parameters the present models foster a computational investigation of ionic liquids....

  15. Evaluation of reliability of on-site A.C. power systems based on maintenance records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basso, G.; Pia, S.; Fusari, W.; Soressi, G.; Vaccari, G.

    1986-01-01

    To the end of ascertain in what extent the evaluation of reliability of emergency diesel generators (D.G.) can be improved by means of a deeper knowledge of their operating history a study has been carried-out on 21 D.G. sets: 4 D.G. of the Caorso nuclear plant (BWR, 870 MWe) and 17 D.G. in service at 6 steam-electric fossil-fuelled plants. The major points of interest resulting from this study are: 1) reliability assessments of A.C. on-site power Systems, made on the basis of outcomes of surveillance tests, may lead to results which overestimate the real performance. 2) the unreliability of a redundant System of stand-by components is determined in large extent by unavailabilities due to scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, latent failures, tests. (authors)

  16. Evaluation of reliability of on-site A.C. power systems based on maintenance records

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basso, G.; Pia, S. [ENEA/TERM/VAOEC, C.R.E. Casaccla via Anguillarese, 00100 Roma/Rome (Italy); Fusari, W. [ENEL, Rome (Italy); Soressi, G.; Vaccari, G. [ENEL, Centro di Ricerca Termica e Nucl., Via Rubattino, 54, 1-20134 Mllano/Milan (Italy)

    1986-02-15

    To the end of ascertain in what extent the evaluation of reliability of emergency diesel generators (D.G.) can be improved by means of a deeper knowledge of their operating history a study has been carried-out on 21 D.G. sets: 4 D.G. of the Caorso nuclear plant (BWR, 870 MWe) and 17 D.G. in service at 6 steam-electric fossil-fuelled plants. The major points of interest resulting from this study are: 1) reliability assessments of A.C. on-site power Systems, made on the basis of outcomes of surveillance tests, may lead to results which overestimate the real performance. 2) the unreliability of a redundant System of stand-by components is determined in large extent by unavailabilities due to scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, latent failures, tests. (authors)

  17. Inter-assessor reliability of practice based biomechanical assessment of the foot and ankle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarvis Hannah L

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is no consensus on which protocols should be used to assess foot and lower limb biomechanics in clinical practice. The reliability of many assessments has been questioned by previous research. The aim of this investigation was to (i identify (through consensus what biomechanical examinations are used in clinical practice and (ii evaluate the inter-assessor reliability of some of these examinations. Methods Part1: Using a modified Delphi technique 12 podiatrists derived consensus on the biomechanical examinations used in clinical practice. Part 2: Eleven podiatrists assessed 6 participants using a subset of the assessment protocol derived in Part 1. Examinations were compared between assessors. Results Clinicians choose to estimate rather than quantitatively measure foot position and motion. Poor inter-assessor reliability was recorded for all examinations. Intra-class correlation coefficient values (ICC for relaxed calcaneal stance position were less than 0.23 and were less than 0.14 for neutral calcaneal stance position. For the examination of ankle joint dorsiflexion, ICC values suggest moderate reliability (less than 0.61. The results of a random effects ANOVA highlight that participant (up to 5.7°, assessor (up to 5.8° and random (up to 5.7° error all contribute to the total error (up to 9.5° for relaxed calcaneal stance position, up to 10.7° for the examination of ankle joint dorsiflexion. Kappa Fleiss values for categorisation of first ray position and mobility were less than 0.05 and for limb length assessment less than 0.02, indicating slight agreement. Conclusion Static biomechanical assessment of the foot, leg and lower limb is an important protocol in clinical practice, but the key examinations used to make inferences about dynamic foot function and to determine orthotic prescription are unreliable.

  18. Coloured Letters and Numbers (CLaN): A reliable factor-analysis based synaesthesia questionnaire

    OpenAIRE

    Rothen Nicolas; Tsakanikos Elias; Meier Beat; Ward Jamie

    2013-01-01

    Synaesthesia is a heterogeneous phenomenon even when considering one particular sub type. The purpose of this study was to design a reliable and valid questionnaire for grapheme colour synaesthesia that captures this heterogeneity. By the means of a large sample of 628 synaesthetes and a factor analysis we created the Coloured Letters and Numbers (CLaN) questionnaire with 16 items loading on 4 different factors (i.e. localisation automaticity/attention deliberate use and longitudinal changes)...

  19. Decision Diagram Based Symbolic Algorithm for Evaluating the Reliability of a Multistate Flow Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongsheng Dong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the reliability of Multistate Flow Network (MFN is an NP-hard problem. Ordered binary decision diagram (OBDD or variants thereof, such as multivalued decision diagram (MDD, are compact and efficient data structures suitable for dealing with large-scale problems. Two symbolic algorithms for evaluating the reliability of MFN, MFN_OBDD and MFN_MDD, are proposed in this paper. In the algorithms, several operating functions are defined to prune the generated decision diagrams. Thereby the state space of capacity combinations is further compressed and the operational complexity of the decision diagrams is further reduced. Meanwhile, the related theoretical proofs and complexity analysis are carried out. Experimental results show the following: (1 compared to the existing decomposition algorithm, the proposed algorithms take less memory space and fewer loops. (2 The number of nodes and the number of variables of MDD generated in MFN_MDD algorithm are much smaller than those of OBDD built in the MFN_OBDD algorithm. (3 In two cases with the same number of arcs, the proposed algorithms are more suitable for calculating the reliability of sparse networks.

  20. Based on Weibull Information Fusion Analysis Semiconductors Quality the Key Technology of Manufacturing Execution Systems Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhi-Hui; Tang, Ying-Chun; Dai, Kai

    2016-05-01

    Semiconductor materials and Product qualified rate are directly related to the manufacturing costs and survival of the enterprise. Application a dynamic reliability growth analysis method studies manufacturing execution system reliability growth to improve product quality. Refer to classical Duane model assumptions and tracking growth forecasts the TGP programming model, through the failure data, established the Weibull distribution model. Combining with the median rank of average rank method, through linear regression and least squares estimation method, match respectively weibull information fusion reliability growth curve. This assumption model overcome Duane model a weakness which is MTBF point estimation accuracy is not high, through the analysis of the failure data show that the method is an instance of the test and evaluation modeling process are basically identical. Median rank in the statistics is used to determine the method of random variable distribution function, which is a good way to solve the problem of complex systems such as the limited sample size. Therefore this method has great engineering application value.