Reliability Estimates for Undergraduate Grade Point Average

Science.gov (United States)

Westrick, Paul A.

2017-01-01

Undergraduate grade point average (GPA) is a commonly employed measure in educational research, serving as a criterion or as a predictor depending on the research question. Over the decades, researchers have used a variety of reliability coefficients to estimate the reliability of undergraduate GPA, which suggests that there has been no consensus…

Reliability estimation of semi-Markov systems: a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouhbi, Brahim; Limnios, Nikolaos

1997-01-01

In this article, we are concerned with the estimation of the reliability and the availability of a turbo-generator rotor using a set of data observed in a real engineering situation provided by Electricite De France (EDF). The rotor is modeled by a semi-Markov process, which is used to estimate the rotor's reliability and availability. To do this, we present a method for estimating the semi-Markov kernel from a censored data

Assessment of Equipment Capability to Perform Reliably under Severe Accident Conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-07-01

The experience from the last 40 years has shown that severe accidents can subject electrical and instrumentation and control (I&C) equipment to environmental conditions exceeding the equipment’s original design basis assumptions. Severe accident conditions can then cause rapid degradation or damage to various degrees up to complete failure of such equipment. This publication provides the technical basis to consider when assessing the capability of electrical and I&C equipment to perform reliably during a severe accident. It provides examples of calculation tools to determine the environmental parameters as well as examples and methods that Member States can apply to assess equipment reliability.

A Data-Driven Reliability Estimation Approach for Phased-Mission Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hua-Feng He

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We attempt to address the issues associated with reliability estimation for phased-mission systems (PMS and present a novel data-driven approach to achieve reliability estimation for PMS using the condition monitoring information and degradation data of such system under dynamic operating scenario. In this sense, this paper differs from the existing methods only considering the static scenario without using the real-time information, which aims to estimate the reliability for a population but not for an individual. In the presented approach, to establish a linkage between the historical data and real-time information of the individual PMS, we adopt a stochastic filtering model to model the phase duration and obtain the updated estimation of the mission time by Bayesian law at each phase. At the meanwhile, the lifetime of PMS is estimated from degradation data, which are modeled by an adaptive Brownian motion. As such, the mission reliability can be real time obtained through the estimated distribution of the mission time in conjunction with the estimated lifetime distribution. We demonstrate the usefulness of the developed approach via a numerical example.

Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams

Science.gov (United States)

Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey; Dolan, John; Stancliff, Stephen

2010-01-01

A mission reliability estimation method has been designed to translate mission requirements into choices of robot modules in order to configure a multi-robot team to have high reliability at minimal cost. In order to build cost-effective robot teams for long-term missions, one must be able to compare alternative design paradigms in a principled way by comparing the reliability of different robot models and robot team configurations. Core modules have been created including: a probabilistic module with reliability-cost characteristics, a method for combining the characteristics of multiple modules to determine an overall reliability-cost characteristic, and a method for the generation of legitimate module combinations based on mission specifications and the selection of the best of the resulting combinations from a cost-reliability standpoint. The developed methodology can be used to predict the probability of a mission being completed, given information about the components used to build the robots, as well as information about the mission tasks. In the research for this innovation, sample robot missions were examined and compared to the performance of robot teams with different numbers of robots and different numbers of spare components. Data that a mission designer would need was factored in, such as whether it would be better to have a spare robot versus an equivalent number of spare parts, or if mission cost can be reduced while maintaining reliability using spares. This analytical model was applied to an example robot mission, examining the cost-reliability tradeoffs among different team configurations. Particularly scrutinized were teams using either redundancy (spare robots) or repairability (spare components). Using conservative estimates of the cost-reliability relationship, results show that it is possible to significantly reduce the cost of a robotic mission by using cheaper, lower-reliability components and providing spares. This suggests that the

Estimation of some stochastic models used in reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huovinen, T.

1989-04-01

The work aims to study the estimation of some stochastic models used in reliability engineering. In reliability engineering continuous probability distributions have been used as models for the lifetime of technical components. We consider here the following distributions: exponential, 2-mixture exponential, conditional exponential, Weibull, lognormal and gamma. Maximum likelihood method is used to estimate distributions from observed data which may be either complete or censored. We consider models based on homogeneous Poisson processes such as gamma-poisson and lognormal-poisson models for analysis of failure intensity. We study also a beta-binomial model for analysis of failure probability. The estimators of the parameters for three models are estimated by the matching moments method and in the case of gamma-poisson and beta-binomial models also by maximum likelihood method. A great deal of mathematical or statistical problems that arise in reliability engineering can be solved by utilizing point processes. Here we consider the statistical analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes to describe the failing phenomena of a set of components with a Weibull intensity function. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the Weibull model. A common cause failure can seriously reduce the reliability of a system. We consider a binomial failure rate (BFR) model as an application of the marked point processes for modelling common cause failure in a system. The parameters of the binomial failure rate model are estimated with the maximum likelihood method

Neglect Of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability

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Rózsás Árpád

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Parameter estimation uncertainty is often neglected in reliability studies, i.e. point estimates of distribution parameters are used for representative fractiles, and in probabilistic models. A numerical example examines the effect of this uncertainty on structural reliability using Bayesian statistics. The study reveals that the neglect of parameter estimation uncertainty might lead to an order of magnitude underestimation of failure probability.

Online Estimation of Peak Power Capability of Li-Ion Batteries in Electric Vehicles by a Hardware-in-Loop Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fengchun Sun

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Battery peak power capability estimations play an important theoretical role for the proper use of the battery in electric vehicles. To address the failures in relaxation effects and real-time ability performance, neglecting the battery’s design limits and other issues of the traditional peak power capability calculation methods, a new approach based on the dynamic electrochemical-polarization (EP battery model, taking into consideration constraints of current, voltage, state of charge (SoC and power is proposed. A hardware-in-the-loop (HIL system is built for validating the online model-based peak power capability estimation approach of batteries used in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs and a HIL test based on the Federal Urban Driving Schedules (FUDS is used to verify and evaluate its real-time computation performance, reliability and robustness. The results show the proposed approach gives a more accurate estimate compared with the hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC method, avoiding over-charging or over-discharging and providing a powerful guarantee for the optimization of HEVs power systems. Furthermore, the HIL test provides valuable data and critical guidance to evaluate the accuracy of the developed battery algorithms.

Fault-tolerant embedded system design and optimization considering reliability estimation uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wattanapongskorn, Naruemon; Coit, David W.

2007-01-01

In this paper, we model embedded system design and optimization, considering component redundancy and uncertainty in the component reliability estimates. The systems being studied consist of software embedded in associated hardware components. Very often, component reliability values are not known exactly. Therefore, for reliability analysis studies and system optimization, it is meaningful to consider component reliability estimates as random variables with associated estimation uncertainty. In this new research, the system design process is formulated as a multiple-objective optimization problem to maximize an estimate of system reliability, and also, to minimize the variance of the reliability estimate. The two objectives are combined by penalizing the variance for prospective solutions. The two most common fault-tolerant embedded system architectures, N-Version Programming and Recovery Block, are considered as strategies to improve system reliability by providing system redundancy. Four distinct models are presented to demonstrate the proposed optimization techniques with or without redundancy. For many design problems, multiple functionally equivalent software versions have failure correlation even if they have been independently developed. The failure correlation may result from faults in the software specification, faults from a voting algorithm, and/or related faults from any two software versions. Our approach considers this correlation in formulating practical optimization models. Genetic algorithms with a dynamic penalty function are applied in solving this optimization problem, and reasonable and interesting results are obtained and discussed

Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turati, Pietro; Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

2016-01-01

The efficient estimation of system reliability characteristics is of paramount importance for many engineering applications. Real world system reliability modeling calls for the capability of treating systems that are: i) dynamic, ii) complex, iii) hybrid and iv) highly reliable. Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) methods offer a way to solve these types of problems, which are feasible according to the potentially high computational costs. In this paper, the REpetitive Simulation Trials After Reaching Thresholds (RESTART) method is employed, extending it to hybrid systems for the first time (to the authors’ knowledge). The estimation accuracy and precision of RESTART highly depend on the choice of the Importance Function (IF) indicating how close the system is to failure: in this respect, proper IFs are here originally proposed to improve the performance of RESTART for the analysis of hybrid systems. The resulting overall simulation approach is applied to estimate the probability of failure of the control system of a liquid hold-up tank and of a pump-valve subsystem subject to degradation induced by fatigue. The results are compared to those obtained by standard MC simulation and by RESTART with classical IFs available in the literature. The comparison shows the improvement in the performance obtained by our approach. - Highlights: • We consider the issue of estimating small failure probabilities in dynamic systems. • We employ the RESTART method to estimate the failure probabilities. • New Importance Functions (IFs) are introduced to increase the method performance. • We adopt two dynamic, hybrid, highly reliable systems as case studies. • A comparison with literature IFs proves the effectiveness of the new IFs.

Investigation of MLE in nonparametric estimation methods of reliability function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Kwang Won; Kim, Yoon Ik; Chung, Chang Hyun; Kim, Kil Yoo

2001-01-01

There have been lots of trials to estimate a reliability function. In the ESReDA 20 th seminar, a new method in nonparametric way was proposed. The major point of that paper is how to use censored data efficiently. Generally there are three kinds of approach to estimate a reliability function in nonparametric way, i.e., Reduced Sample Method, Actuarial Method and Product-Limit (PL) Method. The above three methods have some limits. So we suggest an advanced method that reflects censored information more efficiently. In many instances there will be a unique maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of an unknown parameter, and often it may be obtained by the process of differentiation. It is well known that the three methods generally used to estimate a reliability function in nonparametric way have maximum likelihood estimators that are uniquely exist. So, MLE of the new method is derived in this study. The procedure to calculate a MLE is similar just like that of PL-estimator. The difference of the two is that in the new method, the mass (or weight) of each has an influence of the others but the mass in PL-estimator not

Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Itagaki, H. [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H.; Ito, S. [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M.

1996-12-31

Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Itagaki, H [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H; Ito, S [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M

1997-12-31

Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

Adaptive Response Surface Techniques in Reliability Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enevoldsen, I.; Faber, M. H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1993-01-01

Problems in connection with estimation of the reliability of a component modelled by a limit state function including noise or first order discontinuitics are considered. A gradient free adaptive response surface algorithm is developed. The algorithm applies second order polynomial surfaces...

Reliability of Bluetooth Technology for Travel Time Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Olesen, Jonas Hammershøj; Krishnan, Rajesh

2015-01-01

. However, their corresponding impacts on accuracy and reliability of estimated travel time have not been evaluated. In this study, a controlled field experiment is conducted to collect both Bluetooth and GPS data for 1000 trips to be used as the basis for evaluation. Data obtained by GPS logger is used...... to calculate actual travel time, referred to as ground truth, and to geo-code the Bluetooth detection events. In this setting, reliability is defined as the percentage of devices captured per trip during the experiment. It is found that, on average, Bluetooth-enabled devices will be detected 80% of the time......-range antennae detect Bluetooth-enabled devices in a closer location to the sensor, thus providing a more accurate travel time estimate. However, the smaller the size of the detection zone, the lower the penetration rate, which could itself influence the accuracy of estimates. Therefore, there has to be a trade...

IRT-Estimated Reliability for Tests Containing Mixed Item Formats

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Lianghua; Schwarz, Richard D.

2014-01-01

As a global measure of precision, item response theory (IRT) estimated reliability is derived for four coefficients (Cronbach's a, Feldt-Raju, stratified a, and marginal reliability). Models with different underlying assumptions concerning test-part similarity are discussed. A detailed computational example is presented for the targeted…

Influences on and Limitations of Classical Test Theory Reliability Estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Margery E.

It is incorrect to say "the test is reliable" because reliability is a function not only of the test itself, but of many factors. The present paper explains how different factors affect classical reliability estimates such as test-retest, interrater, internal consistency, and equivalent forms coefficients. Furthermore, the limits of classical test…

A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doguc, Ozge; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

2009-01-01

This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples

A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doguc, Ozge [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: jmarquez@stevens.edu

2009-02-15

This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples.

Processes and Procedures for Estimating Score Reliability and Precision

Science.gov (United States)

Bardhoshi, Gerta; Erford, Bradley T.

2017-01-01

Precision is a key facet of test development, with score reliability determined primarily according to the types of error one wants to approximate and demonstrate. This article identifies and discusses several primary forms of reliability estimation: internal consistency (i.e., split-half, KR-20, a), test-retest, alternate forms, interscorer, and…

A Latent Class Approach to Estimating Test-Score Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

van der Ark, L. Andries; van der Palm, Daniel W.; Sijtsma, Klaas

2011-01-01

This study presents a general framework for single-administration reliability methods, such as Cronbach's alpha, Guttman's lambda-2, and method MS. This general framework was used to derive a new approach to estimating test-score reliability by means of the unrestricted latent class model. This new approach is the latent class reliability…

The relationship between cost estimates reliability and BIM adoption: SEM analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, N. A. A.; Idris, N. H.; Ramli, H.; Rooshdi, R. R. Raja Muhammad; Sahamir, S. R.

2018-02-01

This paper presents the usage of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach in analysing the effects of Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology adoption in improving the reliability of cost estimates. Based on the questionnaire survey results, SEM analysis using SPSS-AMOS application examined the relationships between BIM-improved information and cost estimates reliability factors, leading to BIM technology adoption. Six hypotheses were established prior to SEM analysis employing two types of SEM models, namely the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) model and full structural model. The SEM models were then validated through the assessment on their uni-dimensionality, validity, reliability, and fitness index, in line with the hypotheses tested. The final SEM model fit measures are: P-value=0.000, RMSEA=0.0790.90, TLI=0.956>0.90, NFI=0.935>0.90 and ChiSq/df=2.259; indicating that the overall index values achieved the required level of model fitness. The model supports all the hypotheses evaluated, confirming that all relationship exists amongst the constructs are positive and significant. Ultimately, the analysis verified that most of the respondents foresee better understanding of project input information through BIM visualization, its reliable database and coordinated data, in developing more reliable cost estimates. They also perceive to accelerate their cost estimating task through BIM adoption.

Automation of reliability evaluation procedures through CARE - The computer-aided reliability estimation program.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathur, F. P.

1972-01-01

Description of an on-line interactive computer program called CARE (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) which can model self-repair and fault-tolerant organizations and perform certain other functions. Essentially CARE consists of a repository of mathematical equations defining the various basic redundancy schemes. These equations, under program control, are then interrelated to generate the desired mathematical model to fit the architecture of the system under evaluation. The mathematical model is then supplied with ground instances of its variables and is then evaluated to generate values for the reliability-theoretic functions applied to the model.

Reliability Estimation of the Pultrusion Process Using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baran, Ismet; Tutum, Cem Celal; Hattel, Jesper Henri

2013-01-01

In the present study the reliability estimation of the pultrusion process of a flat plate is analyzed by using the first order reliability method (FORM). The implementation of the numerical process model is validated by comparing the deterministic temperature and cure degree profiles...... with corresponding analyses in the literature. The centerline degree of cure at the exit (CDOCE) being less than a critical value and the maximum composite temperature (Tmax) during the process being greater than a critical temperature are selected as the limit state functions (LSFs) for the FORM. The cumulative...

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES FOR INCREASING ORGANIZATIONAL-TECHNOLOGICAL RELIABILITY OF CONSTRUCTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ginzburg Alexander Vital`evich

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The technology of artificial intelligence is actively being mastered in the world but there is not much talk about the capabilities of artificial intelligence in construction industry and this issue requires additional elaboration. As a rule, the decision to invest in a particular construction project is made on the basis of an assessment of the organizational and technological reliability of the construction process. Artificial intelligence can be a convenient quality tool for identifying, analyzing and subsequent control of the “pure” risks of the construction project, which not only will significantly reduce the financial and time expenditures for the investor’s decision-making process but also improve the organizational-technological reliability of the construction process as a whole. Subject: the algorithm of creation of artificial intelligence in the field of identification and analysis of potential risk events is presented, which will facilitate the creation of an independent analytical system for different stages of construction production: from the sketch to the working documentation and conduction of works directly on the construction site. Research objectives: the study of the possibility, methods and planning of the algorithm of works for creation of artificial intelligence technology in order to improve the organizational-technological reliability of the construction process. Materials and methods: the developments in the field of improving the organizational and technological reliability of construction were studied through the analysis and control of potential “pure” risks of the construction project, and the work was also carried out to integrate the technology of artificial intelligence into the area being studied. Results: An algorithm for creating artificial intelligence in the field of identification of potential “pure” risks of construction projects was presented. Conclusions: the obtained results are useful

How Many Sleep Diary Entries Are Needed to Reliably Estimate Adolescent Sleep?

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Teresa; Gradisar, Michael; Taheri, Shahrad; Carskadon, Mary A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Study Objectives: To investigate (1) how many nights of sleep diary entries are required for reliable estimates of five sleep-related outcomes (bedtime, wake time, sleep onset latency [SOL], sleep duration, and wake after sleep onset [WASO]) and (2) the test–retest reliability of sleep diary estimates of school night sleep across 12 weeks. Methods: Data were drawn from four adolescent samples (Australia [n = 385], Qatar [n = 245], United Kingdom [n = 770], and United States [n = 366]), who provided 1766 eligible sleep diary weeks for reliability analyses. We performed reliability analyses for each cohort using complete data (7 days), one to five school nights, and one to two weekend nights. We also performed test–retest reliability analyses on 12-week sleep diary data available from a subgroup of 55 US adolescents. Results: Intraclass correlation coefficients for bedtime, SOL, and sleep duration indicated good-to-excellent reliability from five weekday nights of sleep diary entries across all adolescent cohorts. Four school nights was sufficient for wake times in the Australian and UK samples, but not the US or Qatari samples. Only Australian adolescents showed good reliability for two weekend nights of bedtime reports; estimates of SOL were adequate for UK adolescents based on two weekend nights. WASO was not reliably estimated using 1 week of sleep diaries. We observed excellent test–rest reliability across 12 weeks of sleep diary data in a subsample of US adolescents. Conclusion: We recommend at least five weekday nights of sleep dairy entries to be made when studying adolescent bedtimes, SOL, and sleep duration. Adolescent sleep patterns were stable across 12 consecutive school weeks. PMID:28199718

An adaptive neuro fuzzy model for estimating the reliability of component-based software systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirti Tyagi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Although many algorithms and techniques have been developed for estimating the reliability of component-based software systems (CBSSs, much more research is needed. Accurate estimation of the reliability of a CBSS is difficult because it depends on two factors: component reliability and glue code reliability. Moreover, reliability is a real-world phenomenon with many associated real-time problems. Soft computing techniques can help to solve problems whose solutions are uncertain or unpredictable. A number of soft computing approaches for estimating CBSS reliability have been proposed. These techniques learn from the past and capture existing patterns in data. The two basic elements of soft computing are neural networks and fuzzy logic. In this paper, we propose a model for estimating CBSS reliability, known as an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, that is based on these two basic elements of soft computing, and we compare its performance with that of a plain FIS (fuzzy inference system for different data sets.

User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

Science.gov (United States)

Nicol, David M.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Rifkin, Adam

1992-01-01

The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

Integrated Reliability Estimation of a Nuclear Maintenance Robot including a Software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Heung Seop; Kim, Jae Hee; Jeong, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2011-10-15

Conventional reliability estimation techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), Markov Model, and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) have been used widely and approved in some industries. Then there are some limitations when we use them for a complicate robot systems including software such as intelligent reactor inspection robots. Therefore an expert's judgment plays an important role in estimating the reliability of a complicate system in practice, because experts can deal with diverse evidence related to the reliability and then perform an inference based on them. The proposed method in this paper combines qualitative and quantitative evidences and performs an inference like experts. Furthermore, it does the work in a formal and in a quantitative way unlike human experts, by the benefits of Bayesian Nets (BNs)

Stochastic models and reliability parameter estimation applicable to nuclear power plant safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitra, S.P.

1979-01-01

A set of stochastic models and related estimation schemes for reliability parameters are developed. The models are applicable for evaluating reliability of nuclear power plant systems. Reliability information is extracted from model parameters which are estimated from the type and nature of failure data that is generally available or could be compiled in nuclear power plants. Principally, two aspects of nuclear power plant reliability have been investigated: (1) The statistical treatment of inplant component and system failure data; (2) The analysis and evaluation of common mode failures. The model inputs are failure data which have been classified as either the time type of failure data or the demand type of failure data. Failures of components and systems in nuclear power plant are, in general, rare events.This gives rise to sparse failure data. Estimation schemes for treating sparse data, whenever necessary, have been considered. The following five problems have been studied: 1) Distribution of sparse failure rate component data. 2) Failure rate inference and reliability prediction from time type of failure data. 3) Analyses of demand type of failure data. 4) Common mode failure model applicable to time type of failure data. 5) Estimation of common mode failures from 'near-miss' demand type of failure data

Parameter estimation of component reliability models in PSA model of Krsko NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jordan Cizelj, R.; Vrbanic, I.

2001-01-01

In the paper, the uncertainty analysis of component reliability models for independent failures is shown. The present approach for parameter estimation of component reliability models in NPP Krsko is presented. Mathematical approaches for different types of uncertainty analyses are introduced and used in accordance with some predisposed requirements. Results of the uncertainty analyses are shown in an example for time-related components. As the most appropriate uncertainty analysis proved the Bayesian estimation with the numerical estimation of a posterior, which can be approximated with some appropriate probability distribution, in this paper with lognormal distribution.(author)

Reliability and precision of pellet-group counts for estimating landscape-level deer density

Science.gov (United States)

David S. deCalesta

2013-01-01

This study provides hitherto unavailable methodology for reliably and precisely estimating deer density within forested landscapes, enabling quantitative rather than qualitative deer management. Reliability and precision of the deer pellet-group technique were evaluated in 1 small and 2 large forested landscapes. Density estimates, adjusted to reflect deer harvest and...

Case Study: Zutphen : Estimates of levee system reliability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roscoe, K.; Kothuis, Baukje; Kok, Matthijs

2017-01-01

Estimates of levee system reliability can conflict with experience and intuition. For example, a very high failure probability may be computed while no evidence of failure has been observed, or a very low failure probability when signs of failure have been detected.

ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z.-G. Zhou

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Computer Model to Estimate Reliability Engineering for Air Conditioning Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afrah Al-Bossly, A.; El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.

2012-01-01

Reliability engineering is used to predict the performance and optimize design and maintenance of air conditioning systems. Air conditioning systems are expose to a number of failures. The failures of an air conditioner such as turn on, loss of air conditioner cooling capacity, reduced air conditioning output temperatures, loss of cool air supply and loss of air flow entirely can be due to a variety of problems with one or more components of an air conditioner or air conditioning system. Forecasting for system failure rates are very important for maintenance. This paper focused on the reliability of the air conditioning systems. Statistical distributions that were commonly applied in reliability settings: the standard (2 parameter) Weibull and Gamma distributions. After distributions parameters had been estimated, reliability estimations and predictions were used for evaluations. To evaluate good operating condition in a building, the reliability of the air conditioning system that supplies conditioned air to the several The company's departments. This air conditioning system is divided into two, namely the main chilled water system and the ten air handling systems that serves the ten departments. In a chilled-water system the air conditioner cools water down to 40-45 degree F (4-7 degree C). The chilled water is distributed throughout the building in a piping system and connected to air condition cooling units wherever needed. Data analysis has been done with support a computer aided reliability software, this is due to the Weibull and Gamma distributions indicated that the reliability for the systems equal to 86.012% and 77.7% respectively. A comparison between the two important families of distribution functions, namely, the Weibull and Gamma families was studied. It was found that Weibull method performed for decision making.

Online Reliable Peak Charge/Discharge Power Estimation of Series-Connected Lithium-Ion Battery Packs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Jiang

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The accurate peak power estimation of a battery pack is essential to the power-train control of electric vehicles (EVs. It helps to evaluate the maximum charge and discharge capability of the battery system, and thus to optimally control the power-train system to meet the requirement of acceleration, gradient climbing and regenerative braking while achieving a high energy efficiency. A novel online peak power estimation method for series-connected lithium-ion battery packs is proposed, which considers the influence of cell difference on the peak power of the battery packs. A new parameter identification algorithm based on adaptive ratio vectors is designed to online identify the parameters of each individual cell in a series-connected battery pack. The ratio vectors reflecting cell difference are deduced strictly based on the analysis of battery characteristics. Based on the online parameter identification, the peak power estimation considering cell difference is further developed. Some validation experiments in different battery aging conditions and with different current profiles have been implemented to verify the proposed method. The results indicate that the ratio vector-based identification algorithm can achieve the same accuracy as the repetitive RLS (recursive least squares based identification while evidently reducing the computation cost, and the proposed peak power estimation method is more effective and reliable for series-connected battery packs due to the consideration of cell difference.

NDE reliability and probability of detection (POD) evolution and paradigm shift

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Surendra [NDE Engineering, Materials and Process Engineering, Honeywell Aerospace, Phoenix, AZ 85034 (United States)

2014-02-18

The subject of NDE Reliability and POD has gone through multiple phases since its humble beginning in the late 1960s. This was followed by several programs including the important one nicknamed “Have Cracks – Will Travel” or in short “Have Cracks” by Lockheed Georgia Company for US Air Force during 1974–1978. This and other studies ultimately led to a series of developments in the field of reliability and POD starting from the introduction of fracture mechanics and Damaged Tolerant Design (DTD) to statistical framework by Bernes and Hovey in 1981 for POD estimation to MIL-STD HDBK 1823 (1999) and 1823A (2009). During the last decade, various groups and researchers have further studied the reliability and POD using Model Assisted POD (MAPOD), Simulation Assisted POD (SAPOD), and applying Bayesian Statistics. All and each of these developments had one objective, i.e., improving accuracy of life prediction in components that to a large extent depends on the reliability and capability of NDE methods. Therefore, it is essential to have a reliable detection and sizing of large flaws in components. Currently, POD is used for studying reliability and capability of NDE methods, though POD data offers no absolute truth regarding NDE reliability, i.e., system capability, effects of flaw morphology, and quantifying the human factors. Furthermore, reliability and POD have been reported alike in meaning but POD is not NDE reliability. POD is a subset of the reliability that consists of six phases: 1) samples selection using DOE, 2) NDE equipment setup and calibration, 3) System Measurement Evaluation (SME) including Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R and R) and Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA), 4) NDE system capability and electronic and physical saturation, 5) acquiring and fitting data to a model, and data analysis, and 6) POD estimation. This paper provides an overview of all major POD milestones for the last several decades and discuss rationale for using

Statistical estimation Monte Carlo for unreliability evaluation of highly reliable system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao Gang; Su Guanghui; Jia Dounan; Li Tianduo

2000-01-01

Based on analog Monte Carlo simulation, statistical Monte Carlo methods for unreliable evaluation of highly reliable system are constructed, including direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo method and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo method. The basal element is given, and the statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimators are derived. Direct Monte Carlo simulation method, bounding-sampling method, forced transitions Monte Carlo method, direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo are used to evaluate unreliability of a same system. By comparing, weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimator has smallest variance, and has highest calculating efficiency

Reliability estimation system: its application to the nuclear geophysical sampling of ore deposits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khaykovich, I.M.; Savosin, S.I.

1992-01-01

The reliability estimation system accepted in the Soviet Union for sampling data in nuclear geophysics is based on unique requirements in metrology and methodology. It involves estimating characteristic errors in calibration, as well as errors in measurement and interpretation. This paper describes the methods of estimating the levels of systematic and random errors at each stage of the problem. The data of nuclear geophysics sampling are considered to be reliable if there are no statistically significant, systematic differences between ore intervals determined by this method and by geological control, or by other methods of sampling; the reliability of the latter having been verified. The difference between the random errors is statistically insignificant. The system allows one to obtain information on the parameters of ore intervals with a guaranteed random error and without systematic errors. (Author)

Estimated Value of Service Reliability for Electric Utility Customers in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, M.J.; Mercurio, Matthew; Schellenberg, Josh

2009-06-01

Information on the value of reliable electricity service can be used to assess the economic efficiency of investments in generation, transmission and distribution systems, to strategically target investments to customer segments that receive the most benefit from system improvements, and to numerically quantify the risk associated with different operating, planning and investment strategies. This paper summarizes research designed to provide estimates of the value of service reliability for electricity customers in the US. These estimates were obtained by analyzing the results from 28 customer value of service reliability studies conducted by 10 major US electric utilities over the 16 year period from 1989 to 2005. Because these studies used nearly identical interruption cost estimation or willingness-to-pay/accept methods it was possible to integrate their results into a single meta-database describing the value of electric service reliability observed in all of them. Once the datasets from the various studies were combined, a two-part regression model was used to estimate customer damage functions that can be generally applied to calculate customer interruption costs per event by season, time of day, day of week, and geographical regions within the US for industrial, commercial, and residential customers. Estimated interruption costs for different types of customers and of different duration are provided. Finally, additional research and development designed to expand the usefulness of this powerful database and analysis are suggested.

Reliability estimation for multiunit nuclear and fossil-fired industrial energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sullivan, W.G.; Wilson, J.V.; Klepper, O.H.

1977-01-01

As petroleum-based fuels grow increasingly scarce and costly, nuclear energy may become an important alternative source of industrial energy. Initial applications would most likely include a mix of fossil-fired and nuclear sources of process energy. A means for determining the overall reliability of these mixed systems is a fundamental aspect of demonstrating their feasibility to potential industrial users. Reliability data from nuclear and fossil-fired plants are presented, and several methods of applying these data for calculating the reliability of reasonably complex industrial energy supply systems are given. Reliability estimates made under a number of simplifying assumptions indicate that multiple nuclear units or a combination of nuclear and fossil-fired plants could provide adequate reliability to meet industrial requirements for continuity of service

On estimation of reliability for pipe lines of heat power plants under cyclic loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verezemskij, V.G.

1986-01-01

One of the possible methods to obtain a quantitative estimate of the reliability for pipe lines of the welded heat power plants under cyclic loading due to heating-cooling and due to vibration is considered. Reliability estimate is carried out for a common case of loading by simultaneous cycles with different amplitudes and loading asymmetry. It is shown that scattering of the breaking number of cycles for the metal of welds may perceptibly decrease reliability of the welded pipe line

Reliability Analysis and Overload Capability Assessment of Oil-Immersed Power Transformers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Smart grids have been constructed so as to guarantee the security and stability of the power grid in recent years. Power transformers are a most vital component in the complicated smart grid network. Any transformer failure can cause damage of the whole power system, within which the failures caused by overloading cannot be ignored. This research gives a new insight into overload capability assessment of transformers. The hot-spot temperature of the winding is the most critical factor in measuring the overload capacity of power transformers. Thus, the hot-spot temperature is calculated to obtain the duration running time of the power transformers under overloading conditions. Then the overloading probability is fitted with the mature and widely accepted Weibull probability density function. To guarantee the accuracy of this fitting, a new objective function is proposed to obtain the desired parameters in the Weibull distributions. In addition, ten different mutation scenarios are adopted in the differential evolutionary algorithm to optimize the parameter in the Weibull distribution. The final comprehensive overload capability of the power transformer is assessed by the duration running time as well as the overloading probability. Compared with the previous studies that take no account of the overloading probability, the assessment results obtained in this research are much more reliable.

Modelling and estimating degradation processes with application in structural reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiquet, J.

2007-06-01

The characteristic level of degradation of a given structure is modeled through a stochastic process called the degradation process. The random evolution of the degradation process is governed by a differential system with Markovian environment. We put the associated reliability framework by considering the failure of the structure once the degradation process reaches a critical threshold. A closed form solution of the reliability function is obtained thanks to Markov renewal theory. Then, we build an estimation methodology for the parameters of the stochastic processes involved. The estimation methods and the theoretical results, as well as the associated numerical algorithms, are validated on simulated data sets. Our method is applied to the modelling of a real degradation mechanism, known as crack growth, for which an experimental data set is considered. (authors)

Estimating Between-Person and Within-Person Subscore Reliability with Profile Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulut, Okan; Davison, Mark L; Rodriguez, Michael C

2017-01-01

Subscores are of increasing interest in educational and psychological testing due to their diagnostic function for evaluating examinees' strengths and weaknesses within particular domains of knowledge. Previous studies about the utility of subscores have mostly focused on the overall reliability of individual subscores and ignored the fact that subscores should be distinct and have added value over the total score. This study introduces a profile reliability approach that partitions the overall subscore reliability into within-person and between-person subscore reliability. The estimation of between-person reliability and within-person reliability coefficients is demonstrated using subscores from number-correct scoring, unidimensional and multidimensional item response theory scoring, and augmented scoring approaches via a simulation study and a real data study. The effects of various testing conditions, such as subtest length, correlations among subscores, and the number of subtests, are examined. Results indicate that there is a substantial trade-off between within-person and between-person reliability of subscores. Profile reliability coefficients can be useful in determining the extent to which subscores provide distinct and reliable information under various testing conditions.

Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baoyu LI

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis, and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain. However, efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved. The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation, whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs. While in fact, structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering, thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method, and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT technique to compute the fractional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations, which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs. The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations. Besides, the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis, which is determined by UT, is really small. Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.

An automated method for estimating reliability of grid systems using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doguc, Ozge; Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose

2012-01-01

Grid computing has become relevant due to its applications to large-scale resource sharing, wide-area information transfer, and multi-institutional collaborating. In general, in grid computing a service requests the use of a set of resources, available in a grid, to complete certain tasks. Although analysis tools and techniques for these types of systems have been studied, grid reliability analysis is generally computation-intensive to obtain due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, conventional reliability models have some common assumptions that cannot be applied to the grid systems. Therefore, new analytical methods are needed for effective and accurate assessment of grid reliability. This study presents a new method for estimating grid service reliability, which does not require prior knowledge about the grid system structure unlike the previous studies. Moreover, the proposed method does not rely on any assumptions about the link and node failure rates. This approach is based on a data-mining algorithm, the K2, to discover the grid system structure from raw historical system data, that allows to find minimum resource spanning trees (MRST) within the grid then, uses Bayesian networks (BN) to model the MRST and estimate grid service reliability.

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adela-Eliza Dumitrascu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram, which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed.

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed.

Assessment of the reliability of ultrasonic inspection methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haines, N.F.; Langston, D.B.; Green, A.J.; Wilson, R.

1982-01-01

The reliability of NDT techniques has remained an open question for many years. A reliable technique may be defined as one that, when rigorously applied by a number of inspection teams, consistently finds then correctly sizes all defects of concern. In this paper we report an assessment of the reliability of defect detection by manual ultrasonic methods applied to the inspection of thick section pressure vessel weldments. Initially we consider the available data relating to the inherent physical capabilities of ultrasonic techniques to detect cracks in weldment and then, independently, we assess the likely variability in team to team performance when several teams are asked to follow the same specified test procedure. The two aspects of 'capability' and 'variability' are brought together to provide quantitative estimates of the overall reliability of ultrasonic inspection of thick section pressure vessel weldments based on currently existing data. The final section of the paper considers current research programmes on reliability and presents a view on how these will help to further improve NDT reliability. (author)

Power capability evaluation for lithium iron phosphate batteries based on multi-parameter constraints estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yujie; Pan, Rui; Liu, Chang; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

The battery power capability is intimately correlated with the climbing, braking and accelerating performance of the electric vehicles. Accurate power capability prediction can not only guarantee the safety but also regulate driving behavior and optimize battery energy usage. However, the nonlinearity of the battery model is very complex especially for the lithium iron phosphate batteries. Besides, the hysteresis loop in the open-circuit voltage curve is easy to cause large error in model prediction. In this work, a multi-parameter constraints dynamic estimation method is proposed to predict the battery continuous period power capability. A high-fidelity battery model which considers the battery polarization and hysteresis phenomenon is presented to approximate the high nonlinearity of the lithium iron phosphate battery. Explicit analyses of power capability with multiple constraints are elaborated, specifically the state-of-energy is considered in power capability assessment. Furthermore, to solve the problem of nonlinear system state estimation, and suppress noise interference, the UKF based state observer is employed for power capability prediction. The performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by experiments under different dynamic characterization schedules. The charge and discharge power capabilities of the lithium iron phosphate batteries are quantitatively assessed under different time scales and temperatures.

Reliability/Cost Evaluation on Power System connected with Wind Power for the Reserve Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lee, Go-Eun; Cha, Seung-Tae; Shin, Je-Seok

2012-01-01

Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

Reliance on and Reliability of the Engineer’s Estimate in Heavy Civil Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Okere

2017-06-01

Full Text Available To the contractor, the engineer’s estimate is the target number to aim for, and the basis for a contractor to evaluate the accuracy of their estimate. To the owner, the engineer’s estimate is the basis for funding, evaluation of bids, and for predicting project costs. As such the engineer’s estimate is the benchmark. This research sought to investigate the reliance on, and the reliability of the engineer’s estimate in heavy civil cost estimate. The research objective was to characterize the engineer’s estimate and allow owners and contractors re-evaluate or affirm their reliance on the engineer’s estimate. A literature review was conducted to understand the reliance on the engineer’s estimate, and secondary data from Washington State Department of Transportation was used to investigate the reliability of the engineer’s estimate. The findings show the need for practitioners to re-evaluate their reliance on the engineer’s estimate. The empirical data showed that, within various contexts, the engineer’s estimate fell outside the expected accuracy range of the low bids or the cost to complete projects. The study recommends direct tracking of costs by project owners while projects are under construction, the use of a second estimate to improve the accuracy of their estimates, and use of the cost estimating practices found in highly reputable construction companies.

COMPUTER SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ESTIMATING CHEMICAL TOXICITY: PRESENT CAPABILITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

Science.gov (United States)

Computer Support Systems for Estimating Chemical Toxicity: Present Capabilities and Future Trends A wide variety of computer-based artificial intelligence (AI) and decision support systems exist currently to aid in the assessment of toxicity for environmental chemicals. T...

Availability and Reliability of FSO Links Estimated from Visibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Tatarko

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper is focused on estimation availability and reliability of FSO systems. Shortcut FSO means Free Space Optics. It is a system which allows optical transmission between two steady points. We can say that it is a last mile communication system. It is an optical communication system, but the propagation media is air. This solution of last mile does not require expensive optical fiber and establishing of connection is very simple. But there are some drawbacks which have a bad influence of quality of services and availability of the link. Number of phenomena in the atmosphere such as scattering, absorption and turbulence cause a large variation of receiving optical power and laser beam attenuation. The influence of absorption and turbulence can be significantly reduced by an appropriate design of FSO link. But the visibility has the main influence on quality of the optical transmission channel. Thus, in typical continental area where rain, snow or fog occurs is important to know their values. This article gives a description of device for measuring weather conditions and information about estimation of availability and reliability of FSO links in Slovakia.

Neural network fusion capabilities for efficient implementation of tracking algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Sundareshan, Malur K.; Amoozegar, Farid

1997-03-01

The ability to efficiently fuse information of different forms to facilitate intelligent decision making is one of the major capabilities of trained multilayer neural networks that is now being recognized. While development of innovative adaptive control algorithms for nonlinear dynamical plants that attempt to exploit these capabilities seems to be more popular, a corresponding development of nonlinear estimation algorithms using these approaches, particularly for application in target surveillance and guidance operations, has not received similar attention. We describe the capabilities and functionality of neural network algorithms for data fusion and implementation of tracking filters. To discuss details and to serve as a vehicle for quantitative performance evaluations, the illustrative case of estimating the position and velocity of surveillance targets is considered. Efficient target- tracking algorithms that can utilize data from a host of sensing modalities and are capable of reliably tracking even uncooperative targets executing fast and complex maneuvers are of interest in a number of applications. The primary motivation for employing neural networks in these applications comes from the efficiency with which more features extracted from different sensor measurements can be utilized as inputs for estimating target maneuvers. A system architecture that efficiently integrates the fusion capabilities of a trained multilayer neural net with the tracking performance of a Kalman filter is described. The innovation lies in the way the fusion of multisensor data is accomplished to facilitate improved estimation without increasing the computational complexity of the dynamical state estimator itself.

Estimation of the human error probabilities in the human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Haibin; He Xuhong; Tong Jiejuan; Shen Shifei

2006-01-01

Human error data is an important issue of human reliability analysis (HRA). Using of Bayesian parameter estimation, which can use multiple information, such as the historical data of NPP and expert judgment data to modify the human error data, could get the human error data reflecting the real situation of NPP more truly. This paper, using the numeric compute program developed by the authors, presents some typical examples to illustrate the process of the Bayesian parameter estimation in HRA and discusses the effect of different modification data on the Bayesian parameter estimation. (authors)

Reliability estimation of safety-critical software-based systems using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helminen, A.

2001-06-01

Due to the nature of software faults and the way they cause system failures new methods are needed for the safety and reliability evaluation of software-based safety-critical automation systems in nuclear power plants. In the research project 'Programmable automation system safety integrity assessment (PASSI)', belonging to the Finnish Nuclear Safety Research Programme (FINNUS, 1999-2002), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. The project is financed together by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry (KTM) and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). In this report the applicability of Bayesian networks to the reliability estimation of software-based systems is studied. The applicability is evaluated by building Bayesian network models for the systems of interest and performing simulations for these models. In the simulations hypothetical evidence is used for defining the parameter relations and for determining the ability to compensate disparate evidence in the models. Based on the experiences from modelling and simulations we are able to conclude that Bayesian networks provide a good method for the reliability estimation of software-based systems. (orig.)

ARA and ARI imperfect repair models: Estimation, goodness-of-fit and reliability prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toledo, Maria Luíza Guerra de; Freitas, Marta A.; Colosimo, Enrico A.; Gilardoni, Gustavo L.

2015-01-01

An appropriate maintenance policy is essential to reduce expenses and risks related to equipment failures. A fundamental aspect to be considered when specifying such policies is to be able to predict the reliability of the systems under study, based on a well fitted model. In this paper, the classes of models Arithmetic Reduction of Age and Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity are explored. Likelihood functions for such models are derived, and a graphical method is proposed for model selection. A real data set involving failures in trucks used by a Brazilian mining is analyzed considering models with different memories. Parameters, namely, shape and scale for Power Law Process, and the efficiency of repair were estimated for the best fitted model. Estimation of model parameters allowed us to derive reliability estimators to predict the behavior of the failure process. These results are a valuable information for the mining company and can be used to support decision making regarding preventive maintenance policy. - Highlights: • Likelihood functions for imperfect repair models are derived. • A goodness-of-fit technique is proposed as a tool for model selection. • Failures in trucks owned by a Brazilian mining are modeled. • Estimation allowed deriving reliability predictors to forecast the future failure process of the trucks

Designing airport checked-baggage-screening strategies considering system capability and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Qianmei; Sahin, Hande; Kapur, Kailash C.

2009-01-01

Emerging image-based technologies are critical components of airport security for screening checked baggage. Since these new technologies differ widely in cost and accuracy, a comprehensive mathematical framework should be developed for selecting technology or combination of technologies for efficient 100% baggage screening. This paper addresses the problem of setting threshold values of these screening technologies and determining the optimal combination of technologies in a two-level screening system by considering system capability and human reliability. Probability and optimization techniques are used to quantify and evaluate the cost- and risk-effectiveness of various deployment configurations, which is captured by using a system life-cycle cost model that incorporates the deployment cost, operating cost, and costs associated with system decisions. Two system decision rules are studied for a two-level screening system. For each decision rule, two different optimization approaches are formulated and investigated from practitioner's perspective. Numerical examples for different decision rules, optimization approaches and system arrangements are demonstrated

Reliability of piping system components. Framework for estimating failure parameters from service data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nyman, R.; Hegedus, D.; Tomic, B.; Lydell, B.

1997-12-01

This report summarizes results and insights from the final phase of a R and D project on piping reliability sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI). The technical scope includes the development of an analysis framework for estimating piping reliability parameters from service data. The R and D has produced a large database on the operating experience with piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. It covers the period 1970 to the present. The scope of the work emphasized pipe failures (i.e., flaws/cracks, leaks and ruptures) in light water reactors (LWRs). Pipe failures are rare events. A data reduction format was developed to ensure that homogenous data sets are prepared from scarce service data. This data reduction format distinguishes between reliability attributes and reliability influence factors. The quantitative results of the analysis of service data are in the form of conditional probabilities of pipe rupture given failures (flaws/cracks, leaks or ruptures) and frequencies of pipe failures. Finally, the R and D by SKI produced an analysis framework in support of practical applications of service data in PSA. This, multi-purpose framework, termed 'PFCA'-Pipe Failure Cause and Attribute- defines minimum requirements on piping reliability analysis. The application of service data should reflect the requirements of an application. Together with raw data summaries, this analysis framework enables the development of a prior and a posterior pipe rupture probability distribution. The framework supports LOCA frequency estimation, steam line break frequency estimation, as well as the development of strategies for optimized in-service inspection strategies

Reliability of piping system components. Framework for estimating failure parameters from service data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nyman, R [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hegedus, D; Tomic, B [ENCONET Consulting GesmbH, Vienna (Austria); Lydell, B [RSA Technologies, Vista, CA (United States)

1997-12-01

This report summarizes results and insights from the final phase of a R and D project on piping reliability sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI). The technical scope includes the development of an analysis framework for estimating piping reliability parameters from service data. The R and D has produced a large database on the operating experience with piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. It covers the period 1970 to the present. The scope of the work emphasized pipe failures (i.e., flaws/cracks, leaks and ruptures) in light water reactors (LWRs). Pipe failures are rare events. A data reduction format was developed to ensure that homogenous data sets are prepared from scarce service data. This data reduction format distinguishes between reliability attributes and reliability influence factors. The quantitative results of the analysis of service data are in the form of conditional probabilities of pipe rupture given failures (flaws/cracks, leaks or ruptures) and frequencies of pipe failures. Finally, the R and D by SKI produced an analysis framework in support of practical applications of service data in PSA. This, multi-purpose framework, termed `PFCA`-Pipe Failure Cause and Attribute- defines minimum requirements on piping reliability analysis. The application of service data should reflect the requirements of an application. Together with raw data summaries, this analysis framework enables the development of a prior and a posterior pipe rupture probability distribution. The framework supports LOCA frequency estimation, steam line break frequency estimation, as well as the development of strategies for optimized in-service inspection strategies. 63 refs, 30 tabs, 22 figs.

Reliability of Estimation Pile Load Capacity Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yudhi Lastiasih

2014-04-01

Full Text Available None of numerous previous methods for predicting pile capacity is known how accurate any of them are when compared with the actual ultimate capacity of piles tested to failure. The author’s of the present paper have conducted such an analysis, based on 130 data sets of field loading tests. Out of these 130 data sets, only 44 could be analysed, of which 15 were conducted until the piles actually reached failure. The pile prediction methods used were: Brinch Hansen’s method (1963, Chin’s method (1970, Decourt’s Extrapolation Method (1999, Mazurkiewicz’s method (1972, Van der Veen’s method (1953, and the Quadratic Hyperbolic Method proposed by Lastiasih et al. (2012. It was obtained that all the above methods were sufficiently reliable when applied to data from pile loading tests that loaded to reach failure. However, when applied to data from pile loading tests that loaded without reaching failure, the methods that yielded lower values for correction factor N are more recommended. Finally, the empirical method of Reese and O’Neill (1988 was found to be reliable enough to be used to estimate the Qult of a pile foundation based on soil data only.

"A Comparison of Consensus, Consistency, and Measurement Approaches to Estimating Interrater Reliability"

OpenAIRE

Steven E. Stemler

2004-01-01

This article argues that the general practice of describing interrater reliability as a single, unified concept is..at best imprecise, and at worst potentially misleading. Rather than representing a single concept, different..statistical methods for computing interrater reliability can be more accurately classified into one of three..categories based upon the underlying goals of analysis. The three general categories introduced and..described in this paper are: 1) consensus estimates, 2) cons...

Alternative Estimates of the Reliability of College Grade Point Averages. Professional File. Article 130, Spring 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Saupe, Joe L.; Eimers, Mardy T.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore differences in the reliabilities of cumulative college grade point averages (GPAs), estimated for unweighted and weighted, one-semester, 1-year, 2-year, and 4-year GPAs. Using cumulative GPAs for a freshman class at a major university, we estimate internal consistency (coefficient alpha) reliabilities for…

Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Insitute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee; Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup

2015-01-01

In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF

Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tee, Kong Fah; Khan, Lutfor Rahman; Li, Hongshuang

2014-01-01

This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction

A note on reliability estimation of functionally diverse systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Littlewood, B.; Popov, P.; Strigini, L.

1999-01-01

It has been argued that functional diversity might be a plausible means of claiming independence of failures between two versions of a system. We present a model of functional diversity, in the spirit of earlier models of diversity such as those of Eckhardt and Lee, and Hughes. In terms of the model, we show that the claims for independence between functionally diverse systems seem rather unrealistic. Instead, it seems likely that functionally diverse systems will exhibit positively correlated failures, and thus will be less reliable than an assumption of independence would suggest. The result does not, of course, suggest that functional diversity is not worthwhile; instead, it places upon the evaluator of such a system the onus to estimate the degree of dependence so as to evaluate the reliability of the system

Reliance on and Reliability of the Engineer’s Estimate in Heavy Civil Projects

OpenAIRE

Okere, George

2017-01-01

To the contractor, the engineer’s estimate is the target number to aim for, and the basis for a contractor to evaluate the accuracy of their estimate. To the owner, the engineer’s estimate is the basis for funding, evaluation of bids, and for predicting project costs. As such the engineer’s estimate is the benchmark. This research sought to investigate the reliance on, and the reliability of the engineer’s estimate in heavy civil cost estimate. The research objective was to characterize the e...

Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 2. Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

1984-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 2 provides detailed procedures for using the techniques, detailed descriptions of the analyses performed to evaluate the techniques, and HEP estimates generated as part of this project. The results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. Judgments were shown to be consistent and to provide HEP estimates with a good degree of convergent validity. Of the two techniques tested, direct numerical estimation appears to be preferable in terms of ease of application and quality of results

Sensitivity of Reliability Estimates in Partially Damaged RC Structures subject to Earthquakes, using Reduced Hysteretic Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.

The subject of the paper is the investigation of the sensitivity of structural reliability estimation by a reduced hysteretic model for a reinforced concrete frame under an earthquake excitation.......The subject of the paper is the investigation of the sensitivity of structural reliability estimation by a reduced hysteretic model for a reinforced concrete frame under an earthquake excitation....

Reliability of stellar inclination estimated from asteroseismology: analytical criteria, mock simulations and Kepler data analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiaka, Shoya; Benomar, Othman; Suto, Yasushi

2018-05-01

Advances in asteroseismology of solar-like stars, now provide a unique method to estimate the stellar inclination i⋆. This enables to evaluate the spin-orbit angle of transiting planetary systems, in a complementary fashion to the Rossiter-McLaughlineffect, a well-established method to estimate the projected spin-orbit angle λ. Although the asteroseismic method has been broadly applied to the Kepler data, its reliability has yet to be assessed intensively. In this work, we evaluate the accuracy of i⋆ from asteroseismology of solar-like stars using 3000 simulated power spectra. We find that the low signal-to-noise ratio of the power spectra induces a systematic under-estimate (over-estimate) bias for stars with high (low) inclinations. We derive analytical criteria for the reliable asteroseismic estimate, which indicates that reliable measurements are possible in the range of 20° ≲ i⋆ ≲ 80° only for stars with high signal-to-noise ratio. We also analyse and measure the stellar inclination of 94 Kepler main-sequence solar-like stars, among which 33 are planetary hosts. According to our reliability criteria, a third of them (9 with planets, 22 without) have accurate stellar inclination. Comparison of our asteroseismic estimate of vsin i⋆ against spectroscopic measurements indicates that the latter suffers from a large uncertainty possibly due to the modeling of macro-turbulence, especially for stars with projected rotation speed vsin i⋆ ≲ 5km/s. This reinforces earlier claims, and the stellar inclination estimated from the combination of measurements from spectroscopy and photometric variation for slowly rotating stars needs to be interpreted with caution.

Uncertainty in reliability estimation : when do we know everything we know?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Houben, M.J.H.A.; Sonnemans, P.J.M.; Newby, M.J.; Bris, R.; Guedes Soares, C.; Martorell, S.

2009-01-01

In this paperwe demonstrate the use of an adapted GroundedTheory approach through interviews and their analysis to determine explicit uncertainty (known unknowns) for reliability estimation in the early phases of product development.We have applied the adapted Grounded Theory approach in a case

Validity and reliability of Nike + Fuelband for estimating physical activity energy expenditure.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Wesley J; Bhammar, Dharini M; Sawyer, Brandon J; Buman, Matthew P; Gaesser, Glenn A

2015-01-01

The Nike + Fuelband is a commercially available, wrist-worn accelerometer used to track physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) during exercise. However, validation studies assessing the accuracy of this device for estimating PAEE are lacking. Therefore, this study examined the validity and reliability of the Nike + Fuelband for estimating PAEE during physical activity in young adults. Secondarily, we compared PAEE estimation of the Nike + Fuelband with the previously validated SenseWear Armband (SWA). Twenty-four participants (n = 24) completed two, 60-min semi-structured routines consisting of sedentary/light-intensity, moderate-intensity, and vigorous-intensity physical activity. Participants wore a Nike + Fuelband and SWA, while oxygen uptake was measured continuously with an Oxycon Mobile (OM) metabolic measurement system (criterion). The Nike + Fuelband (ICC = 0.77) and SWA (ICC = 0.61) both demonstrated moderate to good validity. PAEE estimates provided by the Nike + Fuelband (246 ± 67 kcal) and SWA (238 ± 57 kcal) were not statistically different than OM (243 ± 67 kcal). Both devices also displayed similar mean absolute percent errors for PAEE estimates (Nike + Fuelband = 16 ± 13 %; SWA = 18 ± 18 %). Test-retest reliability for PAEE indicated good stability for Nike + Fuelband (ICC = 0.96) and SWA (ICC = 0.90). The Nike + Fuelband provided valid and reliable estimates of PAEE, that are similar to the previously validated SWA, during a routine that included approximately equal amounts of sedentary/light-, moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity.

Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

2018-02-01

Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

Nonparametric Estimation of Interval Reliability for Discrete-Time Semi-Markov Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Georgiadis, Stylianos; Limnios, Nikolaos

2016-01-01

In this article, we consider a repairable discrete-time semi-Markov system with finite state space. The measure of the interval reliability is given as the probability of the system being operational over a given finite-length time interval. A nonparametric estimator is proposed for the interval...

Estimating the Parameters of Software Reliability Growth Models Using the Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

OpenAIRE

Alaa F. Sheta; Amal Abdel-Raouf

2016-01-01

In this age of technology, building quality software is essential to competing in the business market. One of the major principles required for any quality and business software product for value fulfillment is reliability. Estimating software reliability early during the software development life cycle saves time and money as it prevents spending larger sums fixing a defective software product after deployment. The Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) can be used to predict the number of...

Scoring the Icecap-a capability instrument. Estimation of a UK general population tariff.

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Terry N; Huynh, Elisabeth; Peters, Tim J; Al-Janabi, Hareth; Clemens, Sam; Moody, Alison; Coast, Joanna

2015-03-01

This paper reports the results of a best-worst scaling (BWS) study to value the Investigating Choice Experiments Capability Measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), a new capability measure among adults, in a UK setting. A main effects plan plus its foldover was used to estimate weights for each of the four levels of all five attributes. The BWS study was administered to 413 randomly sampled individuals, together with sociodemographic and other questions. Scale-adjusted latent class analyses identified two preference and two (variance) scale classes. Ability to characterize preference and scale heterogeneity was limited, but data quality was good, and the final model exhibited a high pseudo-r-squared. After adjusting for heterogeneity, a population tariff was estimated. This showed that 'attachment' and 'stability' each account for around 22% of the space, and 'autonomy', 'achievement' and 'enjoyment' account for around 18% each. Across all attributes, greater value was placed on the difference between the lowest levels of capability than between the highest. This tariff will enable ICECAP-A to be used in economic evaluation both within the field of health and across public policy generally. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Confidence Estimation of Reliability Indices of the System with Elements Duplication and Recovery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. V. Pavlov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers a problem to estimate a confidence interval of the main reliability indices such as availability rate, mean time between failures, and operative availability (in the stationary state for the model of the system with duplication and independent recovery of elements.Presents a solution of the problem for a situation that often arises in practice, when there are unknown exact values of the reliability parameters of the elements, and only test data of the system or its individual parts (elements, subsystems for reliability are known. It should be noted that the problems of the confidence estimate of reliability indices of the complex systems based on the testing results of their individual elements are fairly common function in engineering practice when designing and running the various engineering systems. The available papers consider this problem, mainly, for non-recovery systems.Describes a solution of this problem for the important particular case when the system elements are duplicated by the reserved elements, and the elements that have failed in the course of system operation are recovered (regardless of the state of other elements.An approximate solution of this problem is obtained for the case of high reliability or "fast recovery" of elements on the assumption that the average recovery time of elements is small as compared to the average time between failures.

Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 1. Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

1984-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 1 of this report provides a brief overview of the background of the project, the procedure for using psychological scaling techniques to generate HEP estimates and conclusions from evaluation of the techniques. Results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. In addition, HEP estimates for 35 tasks related to boiling water reactors (BMRs) were obtained as part of the evaluation. These HEP estimates are also included in the report

Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Stuart G.

2013-05-01

Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

Reliability of Semiautomated Computational Methods for Estimating Tibiofemoral Contact Stress in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald D. Anderson

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Recent findings suggest that contact stress is a potent predictor of subsequent symptomatic osteoarthritis development in the knee. However, much larger numbers of knees (likely on the order of hundreds, if not thousands need to be reliably analyzed to achieve the statistical power necessary to clarify this relationship. This study assessed the reliability of new semiautomated computational methods for estimating contact stress in knees from large population-based cohorts. Ten knees of subjects from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study were included. Bone surfaces were manually segmented from sequential 1.0 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging slices by three individuals on two nonconsecutive days. Four individuals then registered the resulting bone surfaces to corresponding bone edges on weight-bearing radiographs, using a semi-automated algorithm. Discrete element analysis methods were used to estimate contact stress distributions for each knee. Segmentation and registration reliabilities (day-to-day and interrater for peak and mean medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact stress were assessed with Shrout-Fleiss intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs. The segmentation and registration steps of the modeling approach were found to have excellent day-to-day (ICC 0.93–0.99 and good inter-rater reliability (0.84–0.97. This approach for estimating compartment-specific tibiofemoral contact stress appears to be sufficiently reliable for use in large population-based cohorts.

Methods for estimating the reliability of the RBMK fuel assemblies and elements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemin, A.I.; Sitkarev, A.G.

1985-01-01

Applied non-parametric methods for calculation of point and interval estimations for the basic nomenclature of reliability factors for the RBMK fuel assemblies and elements are described. As the fuel assembly and element reliability factors, the average lifetime is considered at a preset operating time up to unloading due to fuel burnout as well as the average lifetime at the reactor transient operation and at the steady-state fuel reloading mode of reactor operation. The formulae obtained are included into the special standardized engineering documentation

Model uncertainty and multimodel inference in reliability estimation within a longitudinal framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Alonso, Ariel; Laenen, Annouschka

2013-05-01

Laenen, Alonso, and Molenberghs (2007) and Laenen, Alonso, Molenberghs, and Vangeneugden (2009) proposed a method to assess the reliability of rating scales in a longitudinal context. The methodology is based on hierarchical linear models, and reliability coefficients are derived from the corresponding covariance matrices. However, finding a good parsimonious model to describe complex longitudinal data is a challenging task. Frequently, several models fit the data equally well, raising the problem of model selection uncertainty. When model uncertainty is high one may resort to model averaging, where inferences are based not on one but on an entire set of models. We explored the use of different model building strategies, including model averaging, in reliability estimation. We found that the approach introduced by Laenen et al. (2007, 2009) combined with some of these strategies may yield meaningful results in the presence of high model selection uncertainty and when all models are misspecified, in so far as some of them manage to capture the most salient features of the data. Nonetheless, when all models omit prominent regularities in the data, misleading results may be obtained. The main ideas are further illustrated on a case study in which the reliability of the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale is estimated. Importantly, the ambit of model selection uncertainty and model averaging transcends the specific setting studied in the paper and may be of interest in other areas of psychometrics. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Field Programmable Gate Array Reliability Analysis Guidelines for Launch Vehicle Reliability Block Diagrams

Science.gov (United States)

Al Hassan, Mohammad; Britton, Paul; Hatfield, Glen Spencer; Novack, Steven D.

2017-01-01

Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) integrated circuits (IC) are one of the key electronic components in today's sophisticated launch and space vehicle complex avionic systems, largely due to their superb reprogrammable and reconfigurable capabilities combined with relatively low non-recurring engineering costs (NRE) and short design cycle. Consequently, FPGAs are prevalent ICs in communication protocols and control signal commands. This paper will identify reliability concerns and high level guidelines to estimate FPGA total failure rates in a launch vehicle application. The paper will discuss hardware, hardware description language, and radiation induced failures. The hardware contribution of the approach accounts for physical failures of the IC. The hardware description language portion will discuss the high level FPGA programming languages and software/code reliability growth. The radiation portion will discuss FPGA susceptibility to space environment radiation.

Scoring the Icecap-A Capability Instrument. Estimation of a UK General Population Tariff†

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Terry N; Huynh, Elisabeth; Peters, Tim J; Al-Janabi, Hareth; Clemens, Sam; Moody, Alison; Coast, Joanna

2015-01-01

This paper reports the results of a best–worst scaling (BWS) study to value the Investigating Choice Experiments Capability Measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), a new capability measure among adults, in a UK setting. A main effects plan plus its foldover was used to estimate weights for each of the four levels of all five attributes. The BWS study was administered to 413 randomly sampled individuals, together with sociodemographic and other questions. Scale-adjusted latent class analyses identified two preference and two (variance) scale classes. Ability to characterize preference and scale heterogeneity was limited, but data quality was good, and the final model exhibited a high pseudo-r-squared. After adjusting for heterogeneity, a population tariff was estimated. This showed that ‘attachment’ and ‘stability’ each account for around 22% of the space, and ‘autonomy’, ‘achievement’ and ‘enjoyment’ account for around 18% each. Across all attributes, greater value was placed on the difference between the lowest levels of capability than between the highest. This tariff will enable ICECAP-A to be used in economic evaluation both within the field of health and across public policy generally. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:24254584

The push-off test: development of a simple, reliable test of upper extremity weight-bearing capability.

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent, Joshua I; MacDermid, Joy C; Michlovitz, Susan L; Rafuse, Richard; Wells-Rowsell, Christina; Wong, Owen; Bisbee, Leslie

2014-01-01

Longitudinal clinical measurement study. The push-off test (POT) is a novel and simple measure of upper extremity weight-bearing that can be measured with a grip dynamometer. There are no published studies on the validity and reliability of the POT. The relationship between upper extremity self-report activity/participation and impairment measures remain an unexplored realm. The primary purpose of this study is to estimate the intra and inter-rater reliability and construct validity of the POT. The secondary purpose is to estimate the relationship between upper extremity self-report activity/participation questionnaires and impairment measures. A convenience sample of 22 patients with wrist or elbow injuries were tested for POT, wrist/elbow range of motion (ROM), isometric wrist extension strength (WES) and grip strength; and completed two self-report activity/participation questionnaires: Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and the Hand (DASH) and Work Limitations Questionnaire (WLQ-26). POT's inter and intra-rater reliability and construct validity was tested. Pearson's correlations were run between the impairment measures and self-report questionnaires to look into the relationship amongst them. The POT demonstrated high inter-rater reliability (ICC affected = 0.97; 95% C.I. 0.93-0.99; ICC unaffected = 0.85; 95% C.I. 0.68-0.94) and intra-rater reliability (ICC affected = 0.96; 95% C.I. 0.92-0.97; ICC unaffected = 0.92; 95% C.I. 0.85-0.97). The POT was correlated moderately with the DASH (r = -0.47; p = 0.03). While examining the relationship between upper extremity self-reported activity/participation questionnaires and impairment measures the strongest correlation was between the DASH and the POT (r = -0.47; p = 0.03) and none of the correlations with the other physical impairment measures reached significance. At-work disability demonstrated insignificant correlations with physical impairments. The POT test provides a reliable and easily

The Reliability Estimation for the Open Function of Cabin Door Affected by the Imprecise Judgment Corresponding to Distribution Hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Z. P.; Yue, Z. F.; Liu, W.

2018-05-01

With the development of artificial intelligence, more and more reliability experts have noticed the roles of subjective information in the reliability design of complex system. Therefore, based on the certain numbers of experiment data and expert judgments, we have divided the reliability estimation based on distribution hypothesis into cognition process and reliability calculation. Consequently, for an illustration of this modification, we have taken the information fusion based on intuitional fuzzy belief functions as the diagnosis model of cognition process, and finished the reliability estimation for the open function of cabin door affected by the imprecise judgment corresponding to distribution hypothesis.

Bayesian and Classical Estimation of Stress-Strength Reliability for Inverse Weibull Lifetime Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qixuan Bi

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating stress-strength reliability for inverse Weibull lifetime models having the same shape parameters but different scale parameters. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimator and its asymptotic distribution. Since the classical estimator doesn’t hold explicit forms, we propose an approximate maximum likelihood estimator. The asymptotic confidence interval and two bootstrap intervals are obtained. Using the Gibbs sampling technique, Bayesian estimator and the corresponding credible interval are obtained. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to generate random variates. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the proposed methods. Analysis of a real dataset is performed.

Expanding Reliability Generalization Methods with KR-21 Estimates: An RG Study of the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Ginny G.; White, Amy E.; Henson, Robin K.

2002-01-01

Conducted a reliability generalizability study on the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (CSEI; S. Coopersmith, 1967) to examine the variability of reliability estimates across studies and to identify study characteristics that may predict this variability. Results show that reliability for CSEI scores can vary considerably, especially at the…

Uncertainty analysis methods for estimation of reliability of passive system of VHTR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, S.J.

2012-01-01

An estimation of reliability of passive system for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) is under development in Korea. The essential approach of this estimation is to measure the uncertainty of the system performance under a specific accident condition. The uncertainty propagation approach according to the simulation of phenomenological models (computer codes) is adopted as a typical method to estimate the uncertainty for this purpose. This presentation introduced the uncertainty propagation and discussed the related issues focusing on the propagation object and its surrogates. To achieve a sufficient level of depth of uncertainty results, the applicability of the propagation should be carefully reviewed. For an example study, Latin-hypercube sampling (LHS) method as a direct propagation was tested for a specific accident sequence of VHTR. The reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) developed by KAERI was considered for this example study. This is an air-cooled type passive system that has no active components for its operation. The accident sequence is a low pressure conduction cooling (LPCC) accident that is considered as a design basis accident for the safety design of VHTR. This sequence is due to a large failure of the pressure boundary of the reactor system such as a guillotine break of coolant pipe lines. The presentation discussed the obtained insights (benefit and weakness) to apply an estimation of reliability of passive system

Methodology for uranium resource estimates and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanchfield, D.M.

1980-01-01

The NURE uranium assessment method has evolved from a small group of geologists estimating resources on a few lease blocks, to a national survey involving an interdisciplinary system consisting of the following: (1) geology and geologic analogs; (2) engineering and cost modeling; (3) mathematics and probability theory, psychology and elicitation of subjective judgments; and (4) computerized calculations, computer graphics, and data base management. The evolution has been spurred primarily by two objectives; (1) quantification of uncertainty, and (2) elimination of simplifying assumptions. This has resulted in a tremendous data-gathering effort and the involvement of hundreds of technical experts, many in uranium geology, but many from other fields as well. The rationality of the methods is still largely based on the concept of an analog and the observation that the results are reasonable. The reliability, or repeatability, of the assessments is reasonably guaranteed by the series of peer and superior technical reviews which has been formalized under the current methodology. The optimism or pessimism of individual geologists who make the initial assessments is tempered by the review process, resulting in a series of assessments which are a consistent, unbiased reflection of the facts. Despite the many improvements over past methods, several objectives for future development remain, primarily to reduce subjectively in utilizing factual information in the estimation of endowment, and to improve the recognition of cost uncertainties in the assessment of economic potential. The 1980 NURE assessment methodology will undoubtly be improved, but the reader is reminded that resource estimates are and always will be a forecast for the future

Validity and reliability of central blood pressure estimated by upper arm oscillometric cuff pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Climie, Rachel E D; Schultz, Martin G; Nikolic, Sonja B; Ahuja, Kiran D K; Fell, James W; Sharman, James E

2012-04-01

Noninvasive central blood pressure (BP) independently predicts mortality, but current methods are operator-dependent, requiring skill to obtain quality recordings. The aims of this study were first, to determine the validity of an automatic, upper arm oscillometric cuff method for estimating central BP (O(CBP)) by comparison with the noninvasive reference standard of radial tonometry (T(CBP)). Second, we determined the intratest and intertest reliability of O(CBP). To assess validity, central BP was estimated by O(CBP) (Pulsecor R6.5B monitor) and compared with T(CBP) (SphygmoCor) in 47 participants free from cardiovascular disease (aged 57 ± 9 years) in supine, seated, and standing positions. Brachial mean arterial pressure (MAP) and diastolic BP (DBP) from the O(CBP) device were used to calibrate in both devices. Duplicate measures were recorded in each position on the same day to assess intratest reliability, and participants returned within 10 ± 7 days for repeat measurements to assess intertest reliability. There was a strong intraclass correlation (ICC = 0.987, P difference (1.2 ± 2.2 mm Hg) for central systolic BP (SBP) determined by O(CBP) compared with T(CBP). Ninety-six percent of all comparisons (n = 495 acceptable recordings) were within 5 mm Hg. With respect to reliability, there were strong correlations but higher limits of agreement for the intratest (ICC = 0.975, P difference 0.6 ± 4.5 mm Hg) and intertest (ICC = 0.895, P difference 4.3 ± 8.0 mm Hg) comparisons. Estimation of central SBP using cuff oscillometry is comparable to radial tonometry and has good reproducibility. As a noninvasive, relatively operator-independent method, O(CBP) may be as useful as T(CBP) for estimating central BP in clinical practice.

An Evaluation Method of Equipment Reliability Configuration Management

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Feng, Weijia; Zhang, Wei; Li, Yuan

2018-01-01

At present, many equipment development companies have been aware of the great significance of reliability of the equipment development. But, due to the lack of effective management evaluation method, it is very difficult for the equipment development company to manage its own reliability work. Evaluation method of equipment reliability configuration management is to determine the reliability management capabilities of equipment development company. Reliability is not only designed, but also managed to achieve. This paper evaluates the reliability management capabilities by reliability configuration capability maturity model(RCM-CMM) evaluation method.

Perceptual and Acoustic Reliability Estimates for the Speech Disorders Classification System (SDCS)

Science.gov (United States)

Shriberg, Lawrence D.; Fourakis, Marios; Hall, Sheryl D.; Karlsson, Heather B.; Lohmeier, Heather L.; McSweeny, Jane L.; Potter, Nancy L.; Scheer-Cohen, Alison R.; Strand, Edythe A.; Tilkens, Christie M.; Wilson, David L.

2010-01-01

A companion paper describes three extensions to a classification system for paediatric speech sound disorders termed the Speech Disorders Classification System (SDCS). The SDCS uses perceptual and acoustic data reduction methods to obtain information on a speaker's speech, prosody, and voice. The present paper provides reliability estimates for…

An Energy-Based Limit State Function for Estimation of Structural Reliability in Shock Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A. Guthrie

2013-01-01

Full Text Available limit state function is developed for the estimation of structural reliability in shock environments. This limit state function uses peak modal strain energies to characterize environmental severity and modal strain energies at failure to characterize the structural capacity. The Hasofer-Lind reliability index is briefly reviewed and its computation for the energy-based limit state function is discussed. Applications to two degree of freedom mass-spring systems and to a simple finite element model are considered. For these examples, computation of the reliability index requires little effort beyond a modal analysis, but still accounts for relevant uncertainties in both the structure and environment. For both examples, the reliability index is observed to agree well with the results of Monte Carlo analysis. In situations where fast, qualitative comparison of several candidate designs is required, the reliability index based on the proposed limit state function provides an attractive metric which can be used to compare and control reliability.

An integrated model for reliability estimation of digital nuclear protection system based on fault tree and software control flow methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun

2000-01-01

In the nuclear industry, the difficulty of proving the reliabilities of digital systems prohibits the widespread use of digital systems in various nuclear application such as plant protection system. Even though there exist a few models which are used to estimate the reliabilities of digital systems, we develop a new integrated model which is more realistic than the existing models. We divide the process of estimating the reliability of a digital system into two phases, a high-level phase and a low-level phase, and the boundary of two phases is the reliabilities of subsystems. We apply software control flow method to the low-level phase and fault tree analysis to the high-level phase. The application of the model to Dynamic Safety System(DDS) shows that the estimated reliability of the system is quite reasonable and realistic

An integrated model for reliability estimation of digital nuclear protection system based on fault tree and software control flow methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun

2000-01-01

In nuclear industry, the difficulty of proving the reliabilities of digital systems prohibits the widespread use of digital systems in various nuclear application such as plant protection system. Even though there exist a few models which are used to estimate the reliabilities of digital systems, we develop a new integrated model which is more realistic than the existing models. We divide the process of estimating the reliability of a digital system into two phases, a high-level phase and a low-level phase, and the boundary of two phases is the reliabilities of subsystems. We apply software control flow method to the low-level phase and fault tree analysis to the high-level phase. The application of the model of dynamic safety system (DSS) shows that the estimated reliability of the system is quite reasonable and realistic. (author)

Reliability Estimation with Uncertainties Consideration for High Power IGBTs in 2.3 MW Wind Turbine Converter System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Ma, Ke

2012-01-01

This paper investigates the lifetime of high power IGBTs (insulated gate bipolar transistors) used in large wind turbine applications. Since the IGBTs are critical components in a wind turbine power converter, it is of great importance to assess their reliability in the design phase of the turbine....... Minimum, maximum and average junction temperatures profiles for the grid side IGBTs are estimated at each wind speed input values. The selected failure mechanism is the crack propagation in solder joint under the silicon die. Based on junction temperature profiles and physics of failure model......, the probabilistic and determinist damage models are presented with estimated fatigue lives. Reliably levels were assessed by means of First Order Reliability Method taking into account uncertainties....

Estimations of parameters in Pareto reliability model in the presence of masked data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarhan, Ammar M.

2003-01-01

Estimations of parameters included in the individual distributions of the life times of system components in a series system are considered in this paper based on masked system life test data. We consider a series system of two independent components each has a Pareto distributed lifetime. The maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators for the parameters and the values of the reliability of the system's components at a specific time are obtained. Symmetrical triangular prior distributions are assumed for the unknown parameters to be estimated in obtaining the Bayes estimators of these parameters. Large simulation studies are done in order: (i) explain how one can utilize the theoretical results obtained; (ii) compare the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates obtained of the underlying parameters; and (iii) study the influence of the masking level and the sample size on the accuracy of the estimates obtained

Root biomass in cereals, catch crops and weeds can be reliably estimated without considering aboveground biomass

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Teng; Sørensen, Peter; Wahlström, Ellen Margrethe

2018-01-01

and management factors may affect this allometric relationship making such estimates uncertain and biased. Therefore, we aimed to explore how root biomass for typical cereal crops, catch crops and weeds could most reliably be estimated. Published and unpublished data on aboveground and root biomass (corrected...

Estimating Ordinal Reliability for Likert-Type and Ordinal Item Response Data: A Conceptual, Empirical, and Practical Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Gadermann, Anne M.; Guhn, Martin; Zumbo, Bruno D.

2012-01-01

This paper provides a conceptual, empirical, and practical guide for estimating ordinal reliability coefficients for ordinal item response data (also referred to as Likert, Likert-type, ordered categorical, or rating scale item responses). Conventionally, reliability coefficients, such as Cronbach's alpha, are calculated using a Pearson…

Investigation of the Capability of Compact Polarimetric SAR Interferometry to Estimate Forest Height

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hong; Xie, Lei; Wang, Chao; Chen, Jiehong

2013-08-01

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the capability of compact Polarimetric SAR Interferometry (C-PolInSAR) on forest height estimation. For this, the pseudo fully polarimetric interferomteric (F-PolInSAR) covariance matrix is firstly reconstructed, then the three- stage inversion algorithm, hybrid algorithm, Music and Capon algorithm are applied to both C-PolInSAR covariance matrix and pseudo F-PolInSAR covariance matrix. The availability of forest height estimation is demonstrated using L-band data generated by simulator PolSARProSim and X-band airborne data acquired by East China Research Institute of Electronic Engineering, China Electronics Technology Group Corporation.

Estimating reliability coefficients with heterogeneous item weightings using Stata: A factor based approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boermans, M.A.; Kattenberg, M.A.C.

2011-01-01

We show how to estimate a Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient in Stata after running a principal component or factor analysis. Alpha evaluates to what extent items measure the same underlying content when the items are combined into a scale or used for latent variable. Stata allows for testing

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS AND RELIABILITY FUNCTION OF EXPONENTIATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION: BAYESIAN APPROACH UNDER GENERAL ENTROPY LOSS FUNCTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjay Kumar Singh

2011-06-01

Full Text Available In this Paper we propose Bayes estimators of the parameters of Exponentiated Exponential distribution and Reliability functions under General Entropy loss function for Type II censored sample. The proposed estimators have been compared with the corresponding Bayes estimators obtained under Squared Error loss function and maximum likelihood estimators for their simulated risks (average loss over sample space.

Reliability estimation of a N- M-cold-standby redundancy system in a multicomponent stress-strength model with generalized half-logistic distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yiming; Shi, Yimin; Bai, Xuchao; Zhan, Pei

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the estimation for the reliability of a multicomponent system, named N- M-cold-standby redundancy system, based on progressive Type-II censoring sample. In the system, there are N subsystems consisting of M statistically independent distributed strength components, and only one of these subsystems works under the impact of stresses at a time and the others remain as standbys. Whenever the working subsystem fails, one from the standbys takes its place. The system fails when the entire subsystems fail. It is supposed that the underlying distributions of random strength and stress both belong to the generalized half-logistic distribution with different shape parameter. The reliability of the system is estimated by using both classical and Bayesian statistical inference. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the reliability of the system are derived. Under squared error loss function, the exact expression of the Bayes estimator for the reliability of the system is developed by using the Gauss hypergeometric function. The asymptotic confidence interval and corresponding coverage probabilities are derived based on both the Fisher and the observed information matrices. The approximate highest probability density credible interval is constructed by using Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed reliability estimators. A real data set is also analyzed for an illustration of the findings.

Feasibility and reliability of digital imaging for estimating food selection and consumption from students' packed lunches.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Jennifer C; Sutter, Carolyn; Ontai, Lenna L; Nishina, Adrienne; Zidenberg-Cherr, Sheri

2018-01-01

Although increasing attention is placed on the quality of foods in children's packed lunches, few studies have examined the capacity of observational methods to reliably determine both what is selected and consumed from these lunches. The objective of this project was to assess the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of digital imaging for determining selection and consumption from students' packed lunches, by adapting approaches previously applied to school lunches. Study 1 assessed feasibility and reliability of data collection among a sample of packed lunches (n = 155), while Study 2 further examined reliability in a larger sample of packed (n = 386) as well as school (n = 583) lunches. Based on the results from Study 1, it was feasible to collect and code most items in packed lunch images; missing data were most commonly attributed to packaging that limited visibility of contents. Across both studies, there was satisfactory reliability for determining food types selected, quantities selected, and quantities consumed in the eight food categories examined (weighted kappa coefficients 0.68-0.97 for packed lunches, 0.74-0.97 for school lunches), with lowest reliability for estimating condiments and meats/meat alternatives in packed lunches. In extending methods predominately applied to school lunches, these findings demonstrate the capacity of digital imaging for the objective estimation of selection and consumption from both school and packed lunches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

2017-12-01

Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

A Comparison of the Approaches of Generalizability Theory and Item Response Theory in Estimating the Reliability of Test Scores for Testlet-Composed Tests

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Guemin; Park, In-Yong

2012-01-01

Previous assessments of the reliability of test scores for testlet-composed tests have indicated that item-based estimation methods overestimate reliability. This study was designed to address issues related to the extent to which item-based estimation methods overestimate the reliability of test scores composed of testlets and to compare several…

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential

Direct Estimation of Power Distribution in Reactors for Nuclear Thermal Space Propulsion

Science.gov (United States)

Aldemir, Tunc; Miller, Don W.; Burghelea, Andrei

2004-02-01

A recently proposed constant temperature power sensor (CTPS) has the capability to directly measure the local power deposition rate in nuclear reactor cores proposed for space thermal propulsion. Such a capability reduces the uncertainties in the estimated power peaking factors and hence increases the reliability of the nuclear engine. The CTPS operation is sensitive to the changes in the local thermal conditions. A procedure is described for the automatic on-line calibration of the sensor through estimation of changes in thermal .conditions.

A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, B.; Xie, M.

2000-01-01

Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated

Efficient Estimation of Extreme Non-linear Roll Motions using the First-order Reliability Method (FORM)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

2007-01-01

In on-board decision support systems efficient procedures are needed for real-time estimation of the maximum ship responses to be expected within the next few hours, given on-line information on the sea state and user defined ranges of possible headings and speeds. For linear responses standard...... frequency domain methods can be applied. To non-linear responses like the roll motion, standard methods like direct time domain simulations are not feasible due to the required computational time. However, the statistical distribution of non-linear ship responses can be estimated very accurately using...... the first-order reliability method (FORM), well-known from structural reliability problems. To illustrate the proposed procedure, the roll motion is modelled by a simplified non-linear procedure taking into account non-linear hydrodynamic damping, time-varying restoring and wave excitation moments...

Dynamic reliability and risk assessment of the accident localization system of the Ignalina NPP RBMK-1500 reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopustinskas, V.; Augutis, J.; Rimkevicius, S.

2005-01-01

The paper presents reliability and risk analysis of the RBMK-1500 reactor accident localization system (ALS) (confinement), which prevents radioactive releases to the environment. Reliability of the system was estimated and compared by two methods: the conventional fault tree method and an innovative dynamic reliability model, based on stochastic differential equations. Frequency of radioactive release through ALS was also estimated. The results of the study indicate that conventional fault tree modeling techniques in this case apply high degree of conservatism in the system reliability estimates. One of the purposes of the ALS reliability study was to demonstrate advantages of the dynamic reliability analysis against the conventional fault/event tree methods. The Markovian framework to deal with dynamic aspects of system behavior is presented. Although not analyzed in detail, the framework is also capable of accounting for non-constant component failure rates. Computational methods are proposed to solve stochastic differential equations, including analytical solution, which is possible only for relatively small and simple systems. Other numerical methods, like Monte Carlo and numerical schemes of differential equations are analyzed and compared. The study is finalized with concluding remarks regarding both the studied system reliability and computational methods used

The Locomotor Capabilities Index; validity and reliability of the Swedish version in adults with lower limb amputation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andersson Ingemar H

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Locomotor Capabilities Index (LCI is a validated measure of lower-limb amputees' ability to perform activities with prosthesis. We have developed the LCI Swedish version and evaluated its validity and reliability. Methods Cross-cultural adaptation to Swedish included forward/backward translations and field testing. The Swedish LCI was then administered to 144 amputees (55 women, mean age 74 (40–93 years, attending post-rehabilitation prosthetic training. Construct validity was assessed by examining the relationship between the LCI and Timed "Up-and-Go" (TUG test and between the LCI and EQ-5D health utility index in 2 subgroups of 40 and 20 amputees, respectively. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing scores in different age groups and in unilateral and bilateral amputees. Test-retest reliability (1–2 weeks was evaluated in 20 amputees (14 unilateral. Results The Swedish LCI showed good construct convergent validity, with high correlation with the TUG (r = -0.75 and the EQ-5D (r = 0.84, and discriminative validity, with significantly worse mean scores for older than younger and for bilateral than unilateral amputees (p Conclusion The Swedish version of the LCI demonstrated good validity and internal consistency in adult amputees. Test-retest reliability in a small subsample appears to be acceptable. The high ceiling effect of the LCI may imply that it would be most useful in assessing amputees with low to moderate functional abilities.

Reliability Estimation for Single-unit Ceramic Crown Restorations

Science.gov (United States)

Lekesiz, H.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of a survival prediction method for the assessment of ceramic dental restorations. For this purpose, fast-fracture and fatigue reliabilities for 2 bilayer (metal ceramic alloy core veneered with fluorapatite leucite glass-ceramic, d.Sign/d.Sign-67, by Ivoclar; glass-infiltrated alumina core veneered with feldspathic porcelain, VM7/In-Ceram Alumina, by Vita) and 3 monolithic (leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic, Empress, and ProCAD, by Ivoclar; lithium-disilicate glass-ceramic, Empress 2, by Ivoclar) single posterior crown restorations were predicted, and fatigue predictions were compared with the long-term clinical data presented in the literature. Both perfectly bonded and completely debonded cases were analyzed for evaluation of the influence of the adhesive/restoration bonding quality on estimations. Material constants and stress distributions required for predictions were calculated from biaxial tests and finite element analysis, respectively. Based on the predictions, In-Ceram Alumina presents the best fast-fracture resistance, and ProCAD presents a comparable resistance for perfect bonding; however, ProCAD shows a significant reduction of resistance in case of complete debonding. Nevertheless, it is still better than Empress and comparable with Empress 2. In-Ceram Alumina and d.Sign have the highest long-term reliability, with almost 100% survivability even after 10 years. When compared with clinical failure rates reported in the literature, predictions show a promising match with clinical data, and this indicates the soundness of the settings used in the proposed predictions. PMID:25048249

On the q-Weibull distribution for reliability applications: An adaptive hybrid artificial bee colony algorithm for parameter estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Meng; Droguett, Enrique López; Lins, Isis Didier; Chagas Moura, Márcio das

2017-01-01

The q-Weibull model is based on the Tsallis non-extensive entropy and is able to model various behaviors of the hazard rate function, including bathtub curves, by using a single set of parameters. Despite its flexibility, the q-Weibull has not been widely used in reliability applications partly because of the complicated parameters estimation. In this work, the parameters of the q-Weibull are estimated by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Due to the intricate system of nonlinear equations, derivative-based optimization methods may fail to converge. Thus, the heuristic optimization method of artificial bee colony (ABC) is used instead. To deal with the slow convergence of ABC, it is proposed an adaptive hybrid ABC (AHABC) algorithm that dynamically combines Nelder-Mead simplex search method with ABC for the ML estimation of the q-Weibull parameters. Interval estimates for the q-Weibull parameters, including confidence intervals based on the ML asymptotic theory and on bootstrap methods, are also developed. The AHABC is validated via numerical experiments involving the q-Weibull ML for reliability applications and results show that it produces faster and more accurate convergence when compared to ABC and similar approaches. The estimation procedure is applied to real reliability failure data characterized by a bathtub-shaped hazard rate. - Highlights: • Development of an Adaptive Hybrid ABC (AHABC) algorithm for q-Weibull distribution. • AHABC combines local Nelder-Mead simplex method with ABC to enhance local search. • AHABC efficiently finds the optimal solution for the q-Weibull ML problem. • AHABC outperforms ABC and self-adaptive hybrid ABC in accuracy and convergence speed. • Useful model for reliability data with non-monotonic hazard rate.

Reliability training

Science.gov (United States)

Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

1992-01-01

Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

Estimating power capability of aged lithium-ion batteries in presence of communication delays

Science.gov (United States)

Fridholm, Björn; Wik, Torsten; Kuusisto, Hannes; Klintberg, Anton

2018-04-01

Efficient control of electrified powertrains requires accurate estimation of the power capability of the battery for the next few seconds into the future. When implemented in a vehicle, the power estimation is part of a control loop that may contain several networked controllers which introduces time delays that may jeopardize stability. In this article, we present and evaluate an adaptive power estimation method that robustly can handle uncertain health status and time delays. A theoretical analysis shows that stability of the closed loop system can be lost if the resistance of the model is under-estimated. Stability can, however, be restored by filtering the estimated power at the expense of slightly reduced bandwidth of the signal. The adaptive algorithm is experimentally validated in lab tests using an aged lithium-ion cell subject to a high power load profile in temperatures from -20 to +25 °C. The upper voltage limit was set to 4.15 V and the lower voltage limit to 2.6 V, where significant non-linearities are occurring and the validity of the model is limited. After an initial transient when the model parameters are adapted, the prediction accuracy is within ± 2 % of the actually available power.

Integration of external estimated breeding values and associated reliabilities using correlations among traits and effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vandenplas, J.; Colinet, F.G.; Glorieux, G.; Bertozzi, C.; Gengler, N.

2015-01-01

Based on a Bayesian view of linear mixed models, several studies showed the possibilities to integrate estimated breeding values (EBV) and associated reliabilities (REL) provided by genetic evaluations performed outside a given evaluation system into this genetic evaluation. Hereafter, the term

Impact of inservice inspection on the reliability of nuclear piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, H.H.

1983-12-01

The reliability of nuclear piping is a function of piping quality as fabricated, service loadings and environments, plus programs of continuing inspection during operation. This report presents the results of a study of the impact of inservice inspection (ISI) programs on the reliability of specific nuclear piping systems that have actually failed in service. Two major factors are considered in the ISI programs: one is the capability of detecting flaws; the other is the frequency of performing ISI. A probabilistic fracture mechanics model issued to estimate the reliability of two nuclear piping lines over the plant life as functions of the ISI programs. Examples chosen for the study are the PWR feedwater steam generator nozzle cracking incident and the BWR recirculation reactor vessel nozzle safe-end cracking incident

Estimating reliability of degraded system based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiang Ge

2017-01-01

Full Text Available System degradation was usually caused by multiple-parameter degradation. The assessment result of system reliability by universal generating function was low accurate when compared with the Monte Carlo simulation. And the probability density function of the system output performance cannot be got. So the reliability assessment method based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter was presented for complexly degraded system. Firstly, the system output function was founded according to the transitive relation between component parameters and the system output performance. Then, the probability density evolution equation based on the probability conservation principle and the system output function was established. Furthermore, probability distribution characteristics of the system output performance was obtained by solving differential equation. Finally, the reliability of the degraded system was estimated. This method did not need to discrete the performance parameters and can establish continuous probability density function of the system output performance with high calculation efficiency and low cost. Numerical example shows that this method is applicable to evaluate the reliability of multi-parameter degraded system.

Estimating the Reliability of Aggregated and Within-Person Centered Scores in Ecological Momentary Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Po-Hsien; Weng, Li-Jen

2012-01-01

A procedure for estimating the reliability of test scores in the context of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) was proposed to take into account the characteristics of EMA measures. Two commonly used test scores in EMA were considered: the aggregated score (AGGS) and the within-person centered score (WPCS). Conceptually, AGGS and WPCS represent…

A large-eddy simulation based power estimation capability for wind farms over complex terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Senocak, I.; Sandusky, M.; Deleon, R.

2017-12-01

There has been an increasing interest in predicting wind fields over complex terrain at the micro-scale for resource assessment, turbine siting, and power forecasting. These capabilities are made possible by advancements in computational speed from a new generation of computing hardware, numerical methods and physics modelling. The micro-scale wind prediction model presented in this work is based on the large-eddy simulation paradigm with surface-stress parameterization. The complex terrain is represented using an immersed-boundary method that takes into account the parameterization of the surface stresses. Governing equations of incompressible fluid flow are solved using a projection method with second-order accurate schemes in space and time. We use actuator disk models with rotation to simulate the influence of turbines on the wind field. Data regarding power production from individual turbines are mostly restricted because of proprietary nature of the wind energy business. Most studies report percentage drop of power relative to power from the first row. There have been different approaches to predict power production. Some studies simply report available wind power in the upstream, some studies estimate power production using power curves available from turbine manufacturers, and some studies estimate power as torque multiplied by rotational speed. In the present work, we propose a black-box approach that considers a control volume around a turbine and estimate the power extracted from the turbine based on the conservation of energy principle. We applied our wind power prediction capability to wind farms over flat terrain such as the wind farm over Mower County, Minnesota and the Horns Rev offshore wind farm in Denmark. The results from these simulations are in good agreement with published data. We also estimate power production from a hypothetical wind farm in complex terrain region and identify potential zones suitable for wind power production.

MEASUREMENT: ACCOUNTING FOR RELIABILITY IN PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES.

Science.gov (United States)

Waterman, Brian; Sutter, Robert; Burroughs, Thomas; Dunagan, W Claiborne

2014-01-01

When evaluating physician performance measures, physician leaders are faced with the quandary of determining whether departures from expected physician performance measurements represent a true signal or random error. This uncertainty impedes the physician leader's ability and confidence to take appropriate performance improvement actions based on physician performance measurements. Incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurement is a valuable way of reducing the impact of random error in the measurements, such as those caused by small sample sizes. Consequently, the physician executive has more confidence that the results represent true performance and is positioned to make better physician performance improvement decisions. Applying reliability adjustment to physician-level performance data is relatively new. As others have noted previously, it's important to keep in mind that reliability adjustment adds significant complexity to the production, interpretation and utilization of results. Furthermore, the methods explored in this case study only scratch the surface of the range of available Bayesian methods that can be used for reliability adjustment; further study is needed to test and compare these methods in practice and to examine important extensions for handling specialty-specific concerns (e.g., average case volumes, which have been shown to be important in cardiac surgery outcomes). Moreover, it's important to note that the provider group average as a basis for shrinkage is one of several possible choices that could be employed in practice and deserves further exploration in future research. With these caveats, our results demonstrate that incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurements is feasible and can notably reduce the incidence of "real" signals relative to what one would expect to see using more traditional approaches. A physician leader who is interested in catalyzing performance improvement

Updated Value of Service Reliability Estimates for Electric Utility Customers in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Michael [Nexant Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Schellenberg, Josh [Nexant Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Blundell, Marshall [Nexant Inc., Burlington, MA (United States)

2015-01-01

This report updates the 2009 meta-analysis that provides estimates of the value of service reliability for electricity customers in the United States (U.S.). The meta-dataset now includes 34 different datasets from surveys fielded by 10 different utility companies between 1989 and 2012. Because these studies used nearly identical interruption cost estimation or willingness-to-pay/accept methods, it was possible to integrate their results into a single meta-dataset describing the value of electric service reliability observed in all of them. Once the datasets from the various studies were combined, a two-part regression model was used to estimate customer damage functions that can be generally applied to calculate customer interruption costs per event by season, time of day, day of week, and geographical regions within the U.S. for industrial, commercial, and residential customers. This report focuses on the backwards stepwise selection process that was used to develop the final revised model for all customer classes. Across customer classes, the revised customer interruption cost model has improved significantly because it incorporates more data and does not include the many extraneous variables that were in the original specification from the 2009 meta-analysis. The backwards stepwise selection process led to a more parsimonious model that only included key variables, while still achieving comparable out-of-sample predictive performance. In turn, users of interruption cost estimation tools such as the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator will have less customer characteristics information to provide and the associated inputs page will be far less cumbersome. The upcoming new version of the ICE Calculator is anticipated to be released in 2015.

Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veneziano, D.

1975-01-01

What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

Campus Capability Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Arsenlis, T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bailey, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bergman, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Brase, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Brenner, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Camara, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Carlton, H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Cheng, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chrzanowski, P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Colson, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); East, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Farrell, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ferranti, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gursahani, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hansen, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Helms, L. L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hernandez, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Jeffries, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Larson, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lu, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); McNabb, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Mercer, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Skeate, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sueksdorf, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Zucca, B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Le, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ancria, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Scott, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Leininger, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gagliardi, F. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gash, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bronson, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chung, B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hobson, B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Meeker, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sanchez, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Zagar, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Quivey, B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sommer, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Atherton, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-06-06

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Campus Capability Plan for 2018-2028. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is one of three national laboratories that are part of the National Nuclear Security Administration. LLNL provides critical expertise to strengthen U.S. security through development and application of world-class science and technology that: Ensures the safety, reliability, and performance of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile; Promotes international nuclear safety and nonproliferation; Reduces global danger from weapons of mass destruction; Supports U.S. leadership in science and technology. Essential to the execution and continued advancement of these mission areas are responsive infrastructure capabilities. This report showcases each LLNL capability area and describes the mission, science, and technology efforts enabled by LLNL infrastructure, as well as future infrastructure plans.

System Reliability Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Tae Jin

2005-02-01

This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

Trade-offs in size, quantity and reliability of generalized nuclear power plants: a preliminary assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.

1985-04-01

An approximate method is used to estimate the effects of system reliability on optimal nuclear plant size, taking into account also scale factors and manufacturing learning curve slopes. The method is used to estimate the additional effective capability gained by adding units of different sizes to an existing electrical system. The number of additional units proves to be sensitive to forced outrage rate, estimated here from trends in US light-water reactors from 1971 to 1980. The relative cost of added units ranging in size from 200 to 800 MW is determined as a function of the parameters: scale factor and learning curve slope. The results generally corrobate the trends found in an earlier study in which the effect of reliability on required installed capacity was not explicitly considered. Optimal plant size decreases with weaker scale effects and stronger learning curve effects. Reliability considerations further reduce the optimal plant size, but the relative reduction is apparently not as great with steeper learning curves. This is a plausible finding inasmuch as the reduction in numbers of additional units due to reliability considerations will affect cost most where the learning curve is steepest. 9 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

Reliability of different mark-recapture methods for population size estimation tested against reference population sizes constructed from field data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annegret Grimm

Full Text Available Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK. If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2. Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to

Frontiers of reliability

CERN Document Server

Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

1998-01-01

This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

Investing American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Funds to Advance Capability, Reliability, and Performance in NASA Wind Tunnels

Science.gov (United States)

Sydnor, Goerge H.

2010-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Aeronautics Test Program (ATP) is implementing five significant ground-based test facility projects across the nation with funding provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The projects were selected as the best candidates within the constraints of the ARRA and the strategic plan of ATP. They are a combination of much-needed large scale maintenance, reliability, and system upgrades plus creating new test beds for upcoming research programs. The projects are: 1.) Re-activation of a large compressor to provide a second source for compressed air and vacuum to the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at the Ames Research Center (ARC) 2.) Addition of high-altitude ice crystal generation at the Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory Test Cell 3, 3.) New refrigeration system and tunnel heat exchanger for the Icing Research Tunnel at the Glenn Research Center, 4.) Technical viability improvements for the National Transonic Facility at the Langley Research Center, and 5.) Modifications to conduct Environmentally Responsible Aviation and Rotorcraft research at the 14 x 22 Subsonic Tunnel at Langley Research Center. The selection rationale, problem statement, and technical solution summary for each project is given here. The benefits and challenges of the ARRA funded projects are discussed. Indirectly, this opportunity provides the advantages of developing experience in NASA's workforce in large projects and maintaining corporate knowledge in that very unique capability. It is envisioned that improved facilities will attract a larger user base and capabilities that are needed for current and future research efforts will offer revenue growth and future operations stability. Several of the chosen projects will maximize wind tunnel reliability and maintainability by using newer, proven technologies in place of older and obsolete equipment and processes. The projects will meet NASA's goal of

Microelectronics Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-17

inverters  connected in a chain. ................................................. 5  Figure 3  Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental  reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the  lifetime  reliability of advanced devices,  circuits and...or  FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device  lifetime  was found and thus the  reliability  that  can  be  conveniently

Empiric reliability of diagnostic and prognostic estimations of physical standards of children, going in for sports.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zaporozhanov V.A.

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In the conditions of sporting-pedagogical practices objective estimation of potential possibilities gettings busy already on the initial stages of long-term preparation examined as one of issues of the day. The proper quantitative information allows to individualize preparation of gettings in obedience to requirements to the guided processes busy. Research purpose - logically and metrical to rotin expedience of metrical method of calculations of reliability of results of the control measurings, in-use for diagnostics of psychophysical fitness and prognosis of growth of trade gettings busy in the select type of sport. Material and methods. Analysed the results of the control measurings on four indexes of psychophysical preparedness and estimation of experts of fitness 24th gettings busy composition of children of gymnastic school. The results of initial and final inspection of gymnasts on the same control tests processed the method of mathematical statistics. Expected the metrical estimations of reliability of measurings is stability, co-ordination and informing of control information for current diagnostics and prognosis of sporting possibilities inspected. Results. Expedience of the use in these aims of metrical operations of calculation of complex estimation of the psychophysical state of gettings busy is metrology grounded. Conclusions. Research results confirm expedience of calculation of complex estimation of psychophysical features gettings busy for diagnostics of fitness in the select type of sport and trade prognosis on the subsequent stages of preparation.

Evaluation of environmental management cost estimating capabilities for the subject area ''Life-cycle economics for radioactive waste management and environmental remediation''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hombach, W.G.

1995-01-01

This paper provides a comprehensive perspective on the scope of Environmental Management (EM) activities and on the existing capability to estimate their costs. The scope is defined in terms of both activities and associated cost driving factors. The capability to estimate this scope was determined by evaluating existing cost estimating tools identified through a survey of the US Department of Energy (DOE), the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Environmental Protection Agency, and private industry. This paper is largely based on the results of a report produced for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense, entitled, Evaluation of Environmental Management Cost-Estimating Capabilities of Major Defense Acquisition Programs, March 22, 1995. The DoD sponsored report was designed to have a broad application relevant not only to DoD, but to other government agencies, and industry. In addition to DoD, it has particular application to DOE because significant portions of the analyses and data were derived from DOE environmental management databases, cost models, reports, and work breakdown structures. This paper provides the basis used and methodology employed to conduct an evaluations of selected EM cost estimating tools. The following topics are discussed: Life Cycle of EM Activities; Major Elements of EM Activities; Cost Tool Evaluation Matrix; Results of Cost Tool Evaluations; Cost Tool Development Plan

Reliability of single aliquot regenerative protocol (SAR) for dose estimation in quartz at different burial temperatures: A simulation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koul, D.K.; Pagonis, V.; Patil, P.

2016-01-01

The single aliquot regenerative protocol (SAR) is a well-established technique for estimating naturally acquired radiation doses in quartz. This simulation work examines the reliability of SAR protocol for samples which experienced different ambient temperatures in nature in the range of −10 to 40 °C. The contribution of various experimental variables used in SAR protocols to the accuracy and precision of the method is simulated for different ambient temperatures. Specifically the effects of paleo-dose, test dose, pre-heating temperature and cut-heat temperature on the accuracy of equivalent dose (ED) estimation are simulated by using random combinations of the concentrations of traps and centers using a previously published comprehensive quartz model. The findings suggest that the ambient temperature has a significant bearing on the reliability of natural dose estimation using SAR protocol, especially for ambient temperatures above 0 °C. The main source of these inaccuracies seems to be thermal sensitization of the quartz samples caused by the well-known thermal transfer of holes between luminescence centers in quartz. The simulations suggest that most of this inaccuracy in the dose estimation can be removed by delivering the laboratory doses in pulses (pulsed irradiation procedures). - Highlights: • Ambient temperatures affect the reliability of SAR. • It overestimates the dose with increase in burial temperature and burial time periods. • Elevated temperature irradiation does not correct for these overestimations. • Inaccuracies in dose estimation can be removed by incorporating pulsed irradiation procedures.

Safeprops: A Software for Fast and Reliable Estimation of Safety and Environmental Properties for Organic Compounds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jones, Mark Nicholas; Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens

We present a new software tool called SAFEPROPS which is able to estimate major safety-related and environmental properties for organic compounds. SAFEPROPS provides accurate, reliable and fast predictions using the Marrero-Gani group contribution (MG-GC) method. It is implemented using Python...... as the main programming language, while the necessary parameters together with their correlation matrix are obtained from a SQLite database which has been populated using off-line parameter and error estimation routines (Eq. 3-8)....

Reliability of fish size estimates obtained from multibeam imaging sonar

Science.gov (United States)

Hightower, Joseph E.; Magowan, Kevin J.; Brown, Lori M.; Fox, Dewayne A.

2013-01-01

Multibeam imaging sonars have considerable potential for use in fisheries surveys because the video-like images are easy to interpret, and they contain information about fish size, shape, and swimming behavior, as well as characteristics of occupied habitats. We examined images obtained using a dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) multibeam sonar for Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus, striped bass Morone saxatilis, white perch M. americana, and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus of known size (20–141 cm) to determine the reliability of length estimates. For ranges up to 11 m, percent measurement error (sonar estimate – total length)/total length × 100 varied by species but was not related to the fish's range or aspect angle (orientation relative to the sonar beam). Least-square mean percent error was significantly different from 0.0 for Atlantic sturgeon (x̄  =  −8.34, SE  =  2.39) and white perch (x̄  = 14.48, SE  =  3.99) but not striped bass (x̄  =  3.71, SE  =  2.58) or channel catfish (x̄  = 3.97, SE  =  5.16). Underestimating lengths of Atlantic sturgeon may be due to difficulty in detecting the snout or the longer dorsal lobe of the heterocercal tail. White perch was the smallest species tested, and it had the largest percent measurement errors (both positive and negative) and the lowest percentage of images classified as good or acceptable. Automated length estimates for the four species using Echoview software varied with position in the view-field. Estimates tended to be low at more extreme azimuthal angles (fish's angle off-axis within the view-field), but mean and maximum estimates were highly correlated with total length. Software estimates also were biased by fish images partially outside the view-field and when acoustic crosstalk occurred (when a fish perpendicular to the sonar and at relatively close range is detected in the side lobes of adjacent beams). These sources of

Can a sample of Landsat sensor scenes reliably estimate the global extent of tropical deforestation?

Science.gov (United States)

R. L. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Tucker and Townshend (2000) conclude that wall-to-wall coverage is needed to avoid gross errors in estimations of deforestation rates' because tropical deforestation is concentrated along roads and rivers. They specifically question the reliability of the 10% sample of Landsat sensor scenes used in the global remote sensing survey conducted by the Food and...

The rating reliability calculator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Solomon David J

2004-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

Improving reliability of state estimation programming and computing suite based on analyzing a fault tree

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kolosok Irina

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Reliable information on the current state parameters obtained as a result of processing the measurements from systems of the SCADA and WAMS data acquisition and processing through methods of state estimation (SE is a condition that enables to successfully manage an energy power system (EPS. SCADA and WAMS systems themselves, as any technical systems, are subject to failures and faults that lead to distortion and loss of information. The SE procedure enables to find erroneous measurements, therefore, it is a barrier for the distorted information to penetrate into control problems. At the same time, the programming and computing suite (PCS implementing the SE functions may itself provide a wrong decision due to imperfection of the software algorithms and errors. In this study, we propose to use a fault tree to analyze consequences of failures and faults in SCADA and WAMS and in the very SE procedure. Based on the analysis of the obtained measurement information and on the SE results, we determine the state estimation PCS fault tolerance level featuring its reliability.

Hybrid time-variant reliability estimation for active control structures under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lei; Xiong, Chuang; Wang, Xiaojun; Li, Yunlong; Xu, Menghui

2018-04-01

Considering that multi-source uncertainties from inherent nature as well as the external environment are unavoidable and severely affect the controller performance, the dynamic safety assessment with high confidence is of great significance for scientists and engineers. In view of this, the uncertainty quantification analysis and time-variant reliability estimation corresponding to the closed-loop control problems are conducted in this study under a mixture of random, interval, and convex uncertainties. By combining the state-space transformation and the natural set expansion, the boundary laws of controlled response histories are first confirmed with specific implementation of random items. For nonlinear cases, the collocation set methodology and fourth Rounge-Kutta algorithm are introduced as well. Enlightened by the first-passage model in random process theory as well as by the static probabilistic reliability ideas, a new definition of the hybrid time-variant reliability measurement is provided for the vibration control systems and the related solution details are further expounded. Two engineering examples are eventually presented to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the methodology developed.

Estimation of structural reliability under combined loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shinozuka, M.; Kako, T.; Hwang, H.; Brown, P.; Reich, M.

1983-01-01

For the overall safety evaluation of seismic category I structures subjected to various load combinations, a quantitative measure of the structural reliability in terms of a limit state probability can be conveniently used. For this purpose, the reliability analysis method for dynamic loads, which has recently been developed by the authors, was combined with the existing standard reliability analysis procedure for static and quasi-static loads. The significant parameters that enter into the analysis are: the rate at which each load (dead load, accidental internal pressure, earthquake, etc.) will occur, its duration and intensity. All these parameters are basically random variables for most of the loads to be considered. For dynamic loads, the overall intensity is usually characterized not only by their dynamic components but also by their static components. The structure considered in the present paper is a reinforced concrete containment structure subjected to various static and dynamic loads such as dead loads, accidental pressure, earthquake acceleration, etc. Computations are performed to evaluate the limit state probabilities under each load combination separately and also under all possible combinations of such loads

ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox: An open-source toolbox for analyzing the reliability of event-related brain potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

2017-01-01

Generalizability theory (G theory) provides a flexible, multifaceted approach to estimating score reliability. G theory's approach to estimating score reliability has important advantages over classical test theory that are relevant for research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs). For example, G theory does not require parallel forms (i.e., equal means, variances, and covariances), can handle unbalanced designs, and provides a single reliability estimate for designs with multiple sources of error. This monograph provides a detailed description of the conceptual framework of G theory using examples relevant to ERP researchers, presents the algorithms needed to estimate ERP score reliability, and provides a detailed walkthrough of newly-developed software, the ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox, that calculates score reliability using G theory. The ERA Toolbox is open-source, Matlab software that uses G theory to estimate the contribution of the number of trials retained for averaging, group, and/or event types on ERP score reliability. The toolbox facilitates the rigorous evaluation of psychometric properties of ERP scores recommended elsewhere in this special issue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

78 FR 58492 - Generator Verification Reliability Standards

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-24

... power capability that is available for planning models and bulk electric system reliability assessments... of generator equipment needed to support Bulk-Power System reliability and enhance coordination of... support Bulk-Power System reliability and will ensure that accurate data is verified and made available...

Sensor Alerting Capability

Science.gov (United States)

Henriksson, Jakob; Bermudez, Luis; Satapathy, Goutam

2013-04-01

There is a large amount of sensor data generated today by various sensors, from in-situ buoys to mobile underwater gliders. Providing sensor data to the users through standardized services, language and data model is the promise of OGC's Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) initiative. As the amount of data grows it is becoming difficult for data providers, planners and managers to ensure reliability of data and services and to monitor critical data changes. Intelligent Automation Inc. (IAI) is developing a net-centric alerting capability to address these issues. The capability is built on Sensor Observation Services (SOSs), which is used to collect and monitor sensor data. The alerts can be configured at the service level and at the sensor data level. For example it can alert for irregular data delivery events or a geo-temporal statistic of sensor data crossing a preset threshold. The capability provides multiple delivery mechanisms and protocols, including traditional techniques such as email and RSS. With this capability decision makers can monitor their assets and data streams, correct failures or be alerted about a coming phenomena.

Estimation of process capability indices from the results of limit gauge inspection of dimensional parameters in machining industry

Science.gov (United States)

Masterenko, Dmitry A.; Metel, Alexander S.

2018-03-01

The process capability indices Cp, Cpk are widely used in the modern quality management as statistical measures of the ability of a process to produce output X within specification limits. The customer's requirement to ensure Cp ≥ 1.33 is often applied in contracts. Capability indices estimates may be calculated with the estimates of the mean µ and the variability 6σ, and for it, the quality characteristic in a sample of pieces should be measured. It requires, in turn, using advanced measuring devices and well-qualified staff. From the other hand, quality inspection by attributes, fulfilled with limit gauges (go/no-go) is much simpler and has a higher performance, but it does not give the numerical values of the quality characteristic. The described method allows estimating the mean and the variability of the process on the basis of the results of limit gauge inspection with certain lower limit LCL and upper limit UCL, which separates the pieces into three groups: where X control of the manufacturing process. It is very important for improving quality of articles in machining industry through their tolerance.

Prediction of safety critical software operational reliability from test reliability using testing environment factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

1999-01-01

It has been a critical issue to predict the safety critical software reliability in nuclear engineering area. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there have been many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is however on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, from testing to operation, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are developed in this paper and used to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data in testing phase. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results show that the proposed method can estimate the operational reliability accurately. (Author). 14 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Lifetime Reliability Estimate and Extreme Permanent Deformations of Randomly Excited Elasto-Plastic Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

1983-01-01

plastic deformation during several loadings can be modelled as a filtered Poisson process. Using the Markov property of this quantity the considered first-passage problem as well as the related extreme distribution problems are then solved numerically, and the results are compared to simulation studies.......A method is presented for life-time reliability' estimates of randomly excited yielding systems, assuming the structure to be safe, when the plastic deformations are confined below certain limits. The accumulated plastic deformations during any single significant loading history are considered...

Final Report for the Virtual Reliability Realization System LDRD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DELLIN, THEODORE A.; HENDERSON, CHRISTOPHER L.; O' TOOLE, EDWARD J.

2000-12-01

Current approaches to reliability are not adequate to keep pace with the need for faster, better and cheaper products and systems. This is especially true in high consequence of failure applications. The original proposal for the LDRD was to look at this challenge and see if there was a new paradigm that could make reliability predictions, along with a quantitative estimate of the risk in that prediction, in a way that was faster, better and cheaper. Such an approach would be based on the underlying science models that are the backbone of reliability predictions. The new paradigm would be implemented in two software tools: the Virtual Reliability Realization System (VRRS) and the Reliability Expert System (REX). The three-year LDRD was funded at a reduced level for the first year ($120K vs. $250K) and not renewed. Because of the reduced funding, we concentrated on the initial development of the expertise system. We developed an interactive semiconductor calculation tool needed for reliability analyses. We also were able to generate a basic functional system using Microsoft Siteserver Commerce Edition and Microsoft Sequel Server. The base system has the capability to store Office documents from multiple authors, and has the ability to track and charge for usage. The full outline of the knowledge model has been incorporated as well as examples of various types of content.

Application of fuzzy-MOORA method: Ranking of components for reliability estimation of component-based software systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zeeshan Ali Siddiqui

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Component-based software system (CBSS development technique is an emerging discipline that promises to take software development into a new era. As hardware systems are presently being constructed from kits of parts, software systems may also be assembled from components. It is more reliable to reuse software than to create. It is the glue code and individual components reliability that contribute to the reliability of the overall system. Every component contributes to overall system reliability according to the number of times it is being used, some components are of critical usage, known as usage frequency of component. The usage frequency decides the weight of each component. According to their weights, each component contributes to the overall reliability of the system. Therefore, ranking of components may be obtained by analyzing their reliability impacts on overall application. In this paper, we propose the application of fuzzy multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis, Fuzzy-MOORA. The method helps us find the best suitable alternative, software component, from a set of available feasible alternatives named software components. It is an accurate and easy to understand tool for solving multi-criteria decision making problems that have imprecise and vague evaluation data. By the use of ratio analysis, the proposed method determines the most suitable alternative among all possible alternatives, and dimensionless measurement will realize the job of ranking of components for estimating CBSS reliability in a non-subjective way. Finally, three case studies are shown to illustrate the use of the proposed technique.

Between-day reliability of a method for non-invasive estimation of muscle composition.

Science.gov (United States)

Simunič, Boštjan

2012-08-01

Tensiomyography is a method for valid and non-invasive estimation of skeletal muscle fibre type composition. The validity of selected temporal tensiomyographic measures has been well established recently; there is, however, no evidence regarding the method's between-day reliability. Therefore it is the aim of this paper to establish the between-day repeatability of tensiomyographic measures in three skeletal muscles. For three consecutive days, 10 healthy male volunteers (mean±SD: age 24.6 ± 3.0 years; height 177.9 ± 3.9 cm; weight 72.4 ± 5.2 kg) were examined in a supine position. Four temporal measures (delay, contraction, sustain, and half-relaxation time) and maximal amplitude were extracted from the displacement-time tensiomyogram. A reliability analysis was performed with calculations of bias, random error, coefficient of variation (CV), standard error of measurement, and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) with a 95% confidence interval. An analysis of ICC demonstrated excellent agreement (ICC were over 0.94 in 14 out of 15 tested parameters). However, lower CV was observed in half-relaxation time, presumably because of the specifics of the parameter definition itself. These data indicate that for the three muscles tested, tensiomyographic measurements were reproducible across consecutive test days. Furthermore, we indicated the most possible origin of the lowest reliability detected in half-relaxation time. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Reliability estimation for check valves and other components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McElhaney, K.L.; Staunton, R.H.

1996-01-01

For years the nuclear industry has depended upon component operational reliability information compiled from reliability handbooks and other generic sources as well as private databases generated by recognized experts both within and outside the nuclear industry. Regrettably, these technical bases lacked the benefit of large-scale operational data and comprehensive data verification, and did not take into account the parameters and combinations of parameters that affect the determination of failure rates. This paper briefly examines the historic use of generic component reliability data, its sources, and its limitations. The concept of using a single failure rate for a particular component type is also examined. Particular emphasis is placed on check valves due to the information available on those components. The Appendix presents some of the results of the extensive analyses done by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on check valve performance

Drogue pose estimation for unmanned aerial vehicle autonomous aerial refueling system based on infrared vision sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shanjun; Duan, Haibin; Deng, Yimin; Li, Cong; Zhao, Guozhi; Xu, Yan

2017-12-01

Autonomous aerial refueling is a significant technology that can significantly extend the endurance of unmanned aerial vehicles. A reliable method that can accurately estimate the position and attitude of the probe relative to the drogue is the key to such a capability. A drogue pose estimation method based on infrared vision sensor is introduced with the general goal of yielding an accurate and reliable drogue state estimate. First, by employing direct least squares ellipse fitting and convex hull in OpenCV, a feature point matching and interference point elimination method is proposed. In addition, considering the conditions that some infrared LEDs are damaged or occluded, a missing point estimation method based on perspective transformation and affine transformation is designed. Finally, an accurate and robust pose estimation algorithm improved by the runner-root algorithm is proposed. The feasibility of the designed visual measurement system is demonstrated by flight test, and the results indicate that our proposed method enables precise and reliable pose estimation of the probe relative to the drogue, even in some poor conditions.

Reliability Correction for Functional Connectivity: Theory and Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Sophia; Wang, Danhong; Fox, Michael D.; Pan, Ruiqi; Lu, Jie; Li, Kuncheng; Sun, Wei; Buckner, Randy L.; Liu, Hesheng

2016-01-01

Network properties can be estimated using functional connectivity MRI (fcMRI). However, regional variation of the fMRI signal causes systematic biases in network estimates including correlation attenuation in regions of low measurement reliability. Here we computed the spatial distribution of fcMRI reliability using longitudinal fcMRI datasets and demonstrated how pre-estimated reliability maps can correct for correlation attenuation. As a test case of reliability-based attenuation correction we estimated properties of the default network, where reliability was significantly lower than average in the medial temporal lobe and higher in the posterior medial cortex, heterogeneity that impacts estimation of the network. Accounting for this bias using attenuation correction revealed that the medial temporal lobe’s contribution to the default network is typically underestimated. To render this approach useful to a greater number of datasets, we demonstrate that test-retest reliability maps derived from repeated runs within a single scanning session can be used as a surrogate for multi-session reliability mapping. Using data segments with different scan lengths between 1 and 30 min, we found that test-retest reliability of connectivity estimates increases with scan length while the spatial distribution of reliability is relatively stable even at short scan lengths. Finally, analyses of tertiary data revealed that reliability distribution is influenced by age, neuropsychiatric status and scanner type, suggesting that reliability correction may be especially important when studying between-group differences. Collectively, these results illustrate that reliability-based attenuation correction is an easily implemented strategy that mitigates certain features of fMRI signal nonuniformity. PMID:26493163

Demonstrating the capability and reliability of NDT inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wooldridge, A.B.

1996-01-01

This paper discusses some recent developments in demonstrating the capability of ultrasonics, eddy currents and radiography both theoretically and in practice, and indicates where further evidence is desirable. Magnox Electric has been involved with development of theoretical models for all three of these inspection methods. Feedback from experience on plant is also important to avoid overlooking any practical limitations of the inspections, and to ensure that the metallurgical characteristics of potential defects have been properly taken into account when designing and qualifying the inspections. For critical applications, inspection techniques are often supported by a Technical Justification which draws on all the relevant theoretical and experimental evidence, as well as experience of inspections on plant. The role of technical justifications is discussed in the context of inspection qualification. (author)

Linear and evolutionary polynomial regression models to forecast coastal dynamics: Comparison and reliability assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Bruno, Delia Evelina; Barca, Emanuele; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz; de Araujo Queiroz, Heithor Alexandre; Berardi, Luigi; Passarella, Giuseppe

2018-01-01

In this paper, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression data modelling strategy has been applied to study small scale, short-term coastal morphodynamics, given its capability for treating a wide database of known information, non-linearly. Simple linear and multilinear regression models were also applied to achieve a balance between the computational load and reliability of estimations of the three models. In fact, even though it is easy to imagine that the more complex the model, the more the prediction improves, sometimes a "slight" worsening of estimations can be accepted in exchange for the time saved in data organization and computational load. The models' outcomes were validated through a detailed statistical, error analysis, which revealed a slightly better estimation of the polynomial model with respect to the multilinear model, as expected. On the other hand, even though the data organization was identical for the two models, the multilinear one required a simpler simulation setting and a faster run time. Finally, the most reliable evolutionary polynomial regression model was used in order to make some conjecture about the uncertainty increase with the extension of extrapolation time of the estimation. The overlapping rate between the confidence band of the mean of the known coast position and the prediction band of the estimated position can be a good index of the weakness in producing reliable estimations when the extrapolation time increases too much. The proposed models and tests have been applied to a coastal sector located nearby Torre Colimena in the Apulia region, south Italy.

Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty: Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kang Rui

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence-theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics (posbist reliability and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics (belief reliability. It is pointed out that a qualified reliability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to (1 compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and (2 satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.

Test Reliability at the Individual Level

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yueqin; Nesselroade, John R.; Erbacher, Monica K.; Boker, Steven M.; Burt, S. Alexandra; Keel, Pamela K.; Neale, Michael C.; Sisk, Cheryl L.; Klump, Kelly

2016-01-01

Reliability has a long history as one of the key psychometric properties of a test. However, a given test might not measure people equally reliably. Test scores from some individuals may have considerably greater error than others. This study proposed two approaches using intraindividual variation to estimate test reliability for each person. A simulation study suggested that the parallel tests approach and the structural equation modeling approach recovered the simulated reliability coefficients. Then in an empirical study, where forty-five females were measured daily on the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) for 45 consecutive days, separate estimates of reliability were generated for each person. Results showed that reliability estimates of the PANAS varied substantially from person to person. The methods provided in this article apply to tests measuring changeable attributes and require repeated measures across time on each individual. This article also provides a set of parallel forms of PANAS. PMID:28936107

Estimation of reliability of a interleaving PFC boost converter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gulam Amer Sandepudi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Reliability plays an important role in power supplies. For other electronic equipment, a certain failure mode, at least for a part of the total system, can often be employed without serious (critical effects. However, for power supply no such condition can be accepted, since very high demands on its reliability must be achieved. At higher power levels, the continuous conduction mode (CCM boost converter is preferred topology for implementation a front end with PFC. As a result, significant efforts have been made to improve the performance of high boost converter. This paper is one of the efforts for improving the performance of the converter from the reliability point of view. In this paper, interleaving boost power factor correction converter is simulated with single switch in continuous conduction mode (CCM, discontinuous conduction mode (DCM and critical conduction mode (CRM under different output power ratings. Results of the converter are explored from reliability point of view.

A rapid reliability estimation method for directed acyclic lifeline networks with statistically dependent components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Won-Hee; Kliese, Alyce

2014-01-01

Lifeline networks, such as transportation, water supply, sewers, telecommunications, and electrical and gas networks, are essential elements for the economic and societal functions of urban areas, but their components are highly susceptible to natural or man-made hazards. In this context, it is essential to provide effective pre-disaster hazard mitigation strategies and prompt post-disaster risk management efforts based on rapid system reliability assessment. This paper proposes a rapid reliability estimation method for node-pair connectivity analysis of lifeline networks especially when the network components are statistically correlated. Recursive procedures are proposed to compound all network nodes until they become a single super node representing the connectivity between the origin and destination nodes. The proposed method is applied to numerical network examples and benchmark interconnected power and water networks in Memphis, Shelby County. The connectivity analysis results show the proposed method's reasonable accuracy and remarkable efficiency as compared to the Monte Carlo simulations

Nuclear reactor component populations, reliability data bases, and their relationship to failure rate estimation and uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.; Beckman, R.J.

1981-12-01

Probabilistic risk analyses are used to assess the risks inherent in the operation of existing and proposed nuclear power reactors. In performing such risk analyses the failure rates of various components which are used in a variety of reactor systems must be estimated. These failure rate estimates serve as input to fault trees and event trees used in the analyses. Component failure rate estimation is often based on relevant field failure data from different reliability data sources such as LERs, NPRDS, and the In-Plant Data Program. Various statistical data analysis and estimation methods have been proposed over the years to provide the required estimates of the component failure rates. This report discusses the basis and extent to which statistical methods can be used to obtain component failure rate estimates. The report is expository in nature and focuses on the general philosophical basis for such statistical methods. Various terms and concepts are defined and illustrated by means of numerous simple examples

The selection of field component reliability data for use in nuclear safety studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coxson, B.A.; Tabaie, Mansour

1990-01-01

The paper reviews the user requirements for field component failure data in nuclear safety studies, and the capability of various data sources to satisfy these requirements. Aspects such as estimating the population of items exposed to failure, incompleteness, and under-reporting problems are discussed. The paper takes as an example the selection of component reliability data for use in the Pre-Operational Safety Report (POSR) for Sizewell 'B' Power Station, where field data has in many cases been derived from equipment other than that to be procured and operated on site. The paper concludes that the main quality sought in the available data sources for such studies is the ability to examine failure narratives in component reliability data systems for equipment performing comparable duties to the intended plant application. The main benefit brought about in the last decade is the interactive access to data systems which are adequately structured with regard to the equipment covered, and also provide a text-searching capability of quality-controlled event narratives. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 3. System reliability and analysis techniques, Session A - reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lofgren, E.V.

1985-08-01

This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the quantitative estimation of reliability at the systems level. Various methods are reviewed, but the structure provided by the fault tree method is used as the basis for system reliability estimates. The principles of fault tree analysis are briefly reviewed. Contributors to system unreliability and unavailability are reviewed, models are given for quantitative evaluation, and the requirements for both generic and plant-specific data are discussed. Also covered are issues of quantifying component faults that relate to the systems context in which the components are embedded. All reliability terms are carefully defined. 44 figs., 22 tabs

A fast and reliable method for simultaneous waveform, amplitude and latency estimation of single-trial EEG/MEG data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wouter D Weeda

Full Text Available The amplitude and latency of single-trial EEG/MEG signals may provide valuable information concerning human brain functioning. In this article we propose a new method to reliably estimate single-trial amplitude and latency of EEG/MEG signals. The advantages of the method are fourfold. First, no a-priori specified template function is required. Second, the method allows for multiple signals that may vary independently in amplitude and/or latency. Third, the method is less sensitive to noise as it models data with a parsimonious set of basis functions. Finally, the method is very fast since it is based on an iterative linear least squares algorithm. A simulation study shows that the method yields reliable estimates under different levels of latency variation and signal-to-noise ratioÕs. Furthermore, it shows that the existence of multiple signals can be correctly determined. An application to empirical data from a choice reaction time study indicates that the method describes these data accurately.

Estimation of structural reliability under combined loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shinozuka, M.; Kako, T.; Hwang, H.; Brown, P.; Reich, M.

1983-01-01

For the overall safety evaluation of seismic category I structures subjected to various load combinations, a quantitative measure of the structural reliability in terms of a limit state probability can be conveniently used. For this purpose, the reliability analysis method for dynamic loads, which has recently been developed by the authors, was combined with the existing standard reliability analysis procedure for static and quasi-static loads. The significant parameters that enter into the analysis are: the rate at which each load (dead load, accidental internal pressure, earthquake, etc.) will occur, its duration and intensity. All these parameters are basically random variables for most of the loads to be considered. For dynamic loads, the overall intensity is usually characterized not only by their dynamic components but also by their static components. The structure considered in the present paper is a reinforced concrete containment structure subjected to various static and dynamic loads such as dead loads, accidental pressure, earthquake acceleration, etc. Computations are performed to evaluate the limit state probabilities under each load combination separately and also under all possible combinations of such loads. Indeed, depending on the limit state condition to be specified, these limit state probabilities can indicate which particular load combination provides the dominant contribution to the overall limit state probability. On the other hand, some of the load combinations contribute very little to the overall limit state probability. These observations provide insight into the complex problem of which load combinations must be considered for design, for which limit states and at what level of limit state probabilities. (orig.)

Validation and reliability of the sex estimation of the human os coxae using freely available DSP2 software for bioarchaeology and forensic anthropology.

Science.gov (United States)

Brůžek, Jaroslav; Santos, Frédéric; Dutailly, Bruno; Murail, Pascal; Cunha, Eugenia

2017-10-01

A new tool for skeletal sex estimation based on measurements of the human os coxae is presented using skeletons from a metapopulation of identified adult individuals from twelve independent population samples. For reliable sex estimation, a posterior probability greater than 0.95 was considered to be the classification threshold: below this value, estimates are considered indeterminate. By providing free software, we aim to develop an even more disseminated method for sex estimation. Ten metric variables collected from 2,040 ossa coxa of adult subjects of known sex were recorded between 1986 and 2002 (reference sample). To test both the validity and reliability, a target sample consisting of two series of adult ossa coxa of known sex (n = 623) was used. The DSP2 software (Diagnose Sexuelle Probabiliste v2) is based on Linear Discriminant Analysis, and the posterior probabilities are calculated using an R script. For the reference sample, any combination of four dimensions provides a correct sex estimate in at least 99% of cases. The percentage of individuals for whom sex can be estimated depends on the number of dimensions; for all ten variables it is higher than 90%. Those results are confirmed in the target sample. Our posterior probability threshold of 0.95 for sex estimate corresponds to the traditional sectioning point used in osteological studies. DSP2 software is replacing the former version that should not be used anymore. DSP2 is a robust and reliable technique for sexing adult os coxae, and is also user friendly. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song

1997-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Software engineering practices for control system reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

S. K. Schaffner; K. S White

1999-01-01

This paper will discuss software engineering practices used to improve Control System reliability. The authors begin with a brief discussion of the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model (CMM) which is a framework for evaluating and improving key practices used to enhance software development and maintenance capabilities. The software engineering processes developed and used by the Controls Group at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), using the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) for accelerator control, are described. Examples are given of how their procedures have been used to minimized control system downtime and improve reliability. While their examples are primarily drawn from their experience with EPICS, these practices are equally applicable to any control system. Specific issues addressed include resource allocation, developing reliable software lifecycle processes and risk management

Regional inversion of CO2 ecosystem fluxes from atmospheric measurements. Reliability of the uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broquet, G.; Chevallier, F.; Breon, F.M.; Yver, C.; Ciais, P.; Ramonet, M.; Schmidt, M. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Alemanno, M. [Servizio Meteorologico dell' Aeronautica Militare Italiana, Centro Aeronautica Militare di Montagna, Monte Cimone/Sestola (Italy); Apadula, F. [Research on Energy Systems, RSE, Environment and Sustainable Development Department, Milano (Italy); Hammer, S. [Universitaet Heidelberg, Institut fuer Umweltphysik, Heidelberg (Germany); Haszpra, L. [Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest (Hungary); Meinhardt, F. [Federal Environmental Agency, Kirchzarten (Germany); Necki, J. [AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland); Piacentino, S. [ENEA, Laboratory for Earth Observations and Analyses, Palermo (Italy); Thompson, R.L. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany); Vermeulen, A.T. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, EEE-EA, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-07-01

The Bayesian framework of CO2 flux inversions permits estimates of the retrieved flux uncertainties. Here, the reliability of these theoretical estimates is studied through a comparison against the misfits between the inverted fluxes and independent measurements of the CO2 Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) made by the eddy covariance technique at local (few hectares) scale. Regional inversions at 0.5{sup 0} resolution are applied for the western European domain where {approx}50 eddy covariance sites are operated. These inversions are conducted for the period 2002-2007. They use a mesoscale atmospheric transport model, a prior estimate of the NEE from a terrestrial ecosystem model and rely on the variational assimilation of in situ continuous measurements of CO2 atmospheric mole fractions. Averaged over monthly periods and over the whole domain, the misfits are in good agreement with the theoretical uncertainties for prior and inverted NEE, and pass the chi-square test for the variance at the 30% and 5% significance levels respectively, despite the scale mismatch and the independence between the prior (respectively inverted) NEE and the flux measurements. The theoretical uncertainty reduction for the monthly NEE at the measurement sites is 53% while the inversion decreases the standard deviation of the misfits by 38 %. These results build confidence in the NEE estimates at the European/monthly scales and in their theoretical uncertainty from the regional inverse modelling system. However, the uncertainties at the monthly (respectively annual) scale remain larger than the amplitude of the inter-annual variability of monthly (respectively annual) fluxes, so that this study does not engender confidence in the inter-annual variations. The uncertainties at the monthly scale are significantly smaller than the seasonal variations. The seasonal cycle of the inverted fluxes is thus reliable. In particular, the CO2 sink period over the European continent likely ends later than

Estimation of reliability on digital plant protection system in nuclear power plants using fault simulation with self-checking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jun Seok; Kim, Suk Joon; Seong, Poong Hyun

2004-01-01

Safety-critical digital systems in nuclear power plants require high design reliability. Reliable software design and accurate prediction methods for the system reliability are important problems. In the reliability analysis, the error detection coverage of the system is one of the crucial factors, however, it is difficult to evaluate the error detection coverage of digital instrumentation and control system in nuclear power plants due to complexity of the system. To evaluate the error detection coverage for high efficiency and low cost, the simulation based fault injections with self checking are needed for digital instrumentation and control system in nuclear power plants. The target system is local coincidence logic in digital plant protection system and a simplified software modeling for this target system is used in this work. C++ based hardware description of micro computer simulator system is used to evaluate the error detection coverage of the system. From the simulation result, it is possible to estimate the error detection coverage of digital plant protection system in nuclear power plants using simulation based fault injection method with self checking. (author)

Reliability analysis of road network for estimation of public evacuation time around NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, Sun-Young; Lee, Gab-Bock; Chung, Yang-Geun [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2007-07-01

The most strong protection method of radiation emergency preparedness is the evacuation of the public members when a great deal of radioactivity is released to environment. After the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant meltdown in the United States and Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster in the U.S.S.R, many advanced countries including the United States and Japan have continued research on estimation of public evacuation time as one of emergency countermeasure technologies. Also in South Korea, 'Framework Act on Civil Defense: Radioactive Disaster Preparedness Plan' was established in 1983 and nuclear power plants set up a radiation emergency plan and have regularly carried out radiation emergency preparedness trainings. Nonetheless, there is still a need to improve technology to estimate public evacuation time by executing precise analysis of traffic flow to prepare practical and efficient ways to protect the public. In this research, road network for Wolsong and Kori NPPs was constructed by CORSIM code and Reliability analysis of this road network was performed.

Custom high-reliability radiation-hard CMOS-LSI circuit design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnard, W.J.

1981-01-01

Sandia has developed a custom CMOS-LSI design capability to provide high reliability radiation-hardened circuits. This capability relies on (1) proven design practices to enhance reliability, (2) use of well characterized cells and logic modules, (3) computer-aided design tools to reduce design time and errors and to standardize design definition, and (4) close working relationships with the system designer and technology fabrication personnel. Trade-offs are made during the design between circuit complexity/performance and technology/producibility for high reliability and radiation-hardened designs to result. Sandia has developed and is maintaining a radiation-hardened bulk CMOS technology fabrication line for production of prototype and small production volume parts

Comparing performances of clements, box-cox, Johnson methods with weibull distributions for assessing process capability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ozlem Senvar

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This study examines Clements’ Approach (CA, Box-Cox transformation (BCT, and Johnson transformation (JT methods for process capability assessments through Weibull-distributed data with different parameters to figure out the effects of the tail behaviours on process capability and compares their estimation performances in terms of accuracy and precision. Design/methodology/approach: Usage of process performance index (PPI Ppu is handled for process capability analysis (PCA because the comparison issues are performed through generating Weibull data without subgroups. Box plots, descriptive statistics, the root-mean-square deviation (RMSD, which is used as a measure of error, and a radar chart are utilized all together for evaluating the performances of the methods. In addition, the bias of the estimated values is important as the efficiency measured by the mean square error. In this regard, Relative Bias (RB and the Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE are also considered. Findings: The results reveal that the performance of a method is dependent on its capability to fit the tail behavior of the Weibull distribution and on targeted values of the PPIs. It is observed that the effect of tail behavior is more significant when the process is more capable. Research limitations/implications: Some other methods such as Weighted Variance method, which also give good results, were also conducted. However, we later realized that it would be confusing in terms of comparison issues between the methods for consistent interpretations. Practical implications: Weibull distribution covers a wide class of non-normal processes due to its capability to yield a variety of distinct curves based on its parameters. Weibull distributions are known to have significantly different tail behaviors, which greatly affects the process capability. In quality and reliability applications, they are widely used for the analyses of failure data in order to understand how

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Reliability assessment using Bayesian networks. Case study on quantative reliability estimation of a software-based motor protection relay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helminen, A.; Pulkkinen, U.

2003-06-01

In this report a quantitative reliability assessment of motor protection relay SPAM 150 C has been carried out. The assessment focuses to the methodological analysis of the quantitative reliability assessment using the software-based motor protection relay as a case study. The assessment method is based on Bayesian networks and tries to take the full advantage of the previous work done in a project called Programmable Automation System Safety Integrity assessment (PASSI). From the results and experiences achieved during the work it is justified to claim that the assessment method presented in the work enables a flexible use of qualitative and quantitative elements of reliability related evidence in a single reliability assessment. At the same time the assessment method is a concurrent way of reasoning one's beliefs and references about the reliability of the system. Full advantage of the assessment method is taken when using the method as a way to cultivate the information related to the reliability of software-based systems. The method can also be used as a communicational instrument in a licensing process of software-based systems. (orig.)

On the Reliability of Source Time Functions Estimated Using Empirical Green's Function Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Gallegos, A. C.; Xie, J.; Suarez Salas, L.

2017-12-01

The Empirical Green's Function (EGF) method (Hartzell, 1978) has been widely used to extract source time functions (STFs). In this method, seismograms generated by collocated events with different magnitudes are deconvolved. Under a fundamental assumption that the STF of the small event is a delta function, the deconvolved Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) yields the large event's STF. While this assumption can be empirically justified by examination of differences in event size and frequency content of the seismograms, there can be a lack of rigorous justification of the assumption. In practice, a small event might have a finite duration when the RSTF is retrieved and interpreted as the large event STF with a bias. In this study, we rigorously analyze this bias using synthetic waveforms generated by convolving a realistic Green's function waveform with pairs of finite-duration triangular or parabolic STFs. The RSTFs are found using a time-domain based matrix deconvolution. We find when the STFs of smaller events are finite, the RSTFs are a series of narrow non-physical spikes. Interpreting these RSTFs as a series of high-frequency source radiations would be very misleading. The only reliable and unambiguous information we can retrieve from these RSTFs is the difference in durations and the moment ratio of the two STFs. We can apply a Tikhonov smoothing to obtain a single-pulse RSTF, but its duration is dependent on the choice of weighting, which may be subjective. We then test the Multi-Channel Deconvolution (MCD) method (Plourde & Bostock, 2017) which assumes that both STFs have finite durations to be solved for. A concern about the MCD method is that the number of unknown parameters is larger, which would tend to make the problem rank-deficient. Because the kernel matrix is dependent on the STFs to be solved for under a positivity constraint, we can only estimate the rank-deficiency with a semi-empirical approach. Based on the results so far, we find that the

Estimates of the burst reliability of thin-walled cylinders designed to meet the ASME Code allowables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stancampiano, P.A.; Zemanick, P.P.

1976-01-01

Pressure containment components in nuclear power plants are designed by the conventional deterministic safety factor approach to meet the requirements of the ASME Pressure Vessel Code, Section III. The inevitable variabilities and uncertainties associated with the design, manufacture, installation, and service processes suggest a probabilistic design approach may also be pertinent. Accordingly, the burst reliabilities of two thin-walled 304 SS cylindrical vessels such as might be employed in liquid metal plants are estimated. A large vessel fabricated from rolled plate per ASME SA-240 and a smaller pipe sized vessel also fabricated from rolled plate per ASME SA-358 are considered. The vessels are sized to just meet the allowable ASME Code primary membrance stresses at 800 0 F (427 0 C). The bursting probability that the operating pressure is greater than the burst strength of the cylinders is calculated using stress-strength interference theory by direct Monte Carlo simulation on a high speed digital computer. A sensitivity study is employed to identify those design parameters which have the greatest effect on the reliability. The effects of preservice quality assurance defect inspections on the reliability are also evaluated parametrically

A flexible latent class approach to estimating test-score reliability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Palm, D.W.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.

2014-01-01

The latent class reliability coefficient (LCRC) is improved by using the divisive latent class model instead of the unrestricted latent class model. This results in the divisive latent class reliability coefficient (DLCRC), which unlike LCRC avoids making subjective decisions about the best solution

Methods of Estimation the Reliability and Increasing the Informativeness of the Laboratory Results (Analysis of the Laboratory Case of Measurement the Indicators of Thyroid Function)

OpenAIRE

N A Kovyazina; N A Alhutova; N N Zybina; N M Kalinina

2014-01-01

The goal of the study was to demonstrate the multilevel laboratory quality management system and point at the methods of estimating the reliability and increasing the amount of information content of the laboratory results (on the example of the laboratory case). Results. The article examines the stages of laboratory quality management which has helped to estimate the reliability of the results of determining Free T3, Free T4 and TSH. The measurement results are presented by the expanded unce...

Estimation of the reliability function for two-parameter exponentiated Rayleigh or Burr type X distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anupam Pathak

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Problem Statement: The two-parameter exponentiated Rayleigh distribution has been widely used especially in the modelling of life time event data. It provides a statistical model which has a wide variety of application in many areas and the main advantage is its ability in the context of life time event among other distributions. The uniformly minimum variance unbiased and maximum likelihood estimation methods are the way to estimate the parameters of the distribution. In this study we explore and compare the performance of the uniformly minimum variance unbiased and maximum likelihood estimators of the reliability function R(t=P(X>t and P=P(X>Y for the two-parameter exponentiated Rayleigh distribution. Approach: A new technique of obtaining these parametric functions is introduced in which major role is played by the powers of the parameter(s and the functional forms of the parametric functions to be estimated are not needed.  We explore the performance of these estimators numerically under varying conditions. Through the simulation study a comparison are made on the performance of these estimators with respect to the Biasness, Mean Square Error (MSE, 95% confidence length and corresponding coverage percentage. Conclusion: Based on the results of simulation study the UMVUES of R(t and ‘P’ for the two-parameter exponentiated Rayleigh distribution found to be superior than MLES of R(t and ‘P’.

Using operational data to estimate the reliable yields of water-supply wells

Science.gov (United States)

Misstear, Bruce D. R.; Beeson, Sarah

The reliable yield of a water-supply well depends on many different factors, including the properties of the well and the aquifer; the capacities of the pumps, raw-water mains, and treatment works; the interference effects from other wells; and the constraints imposed by ion licences, water quality, and environmental issues. A relatively simple methodology for estimating reliable yields has been developed that takes into account all of these factors. The methodology is based mainly on an analysis of water-level and source-output data, where such data are available. Good operational data are especially important when dealing with wells in shallow, unconfined, fissure-flow aquifers, where actual well performance may vary considerably from that predicted using a more analytical approach. Key issues in the yield-assessment process are the identification of a deepest advisable pumping water level, and the collection of the appropriate well, aquifer, and operational data. Although developed for water-supply operators in the United Kingdom, this approach to estimating the reliable yields of water-supply wells using operational data should be applicable to a wide range of hydrogeological conditions elsewhere. Résumé La productivité d'un puits capté pour l'adduction d'eau potable dépend de différents facteurs, parmi lesquels les propriétés du puits et de l'aquifère, la puissance des pompes, le traitement des eaux brutes, les effets d'interférences avec d'autres puits et les contraintes imposées par les autorisations d'exploitation, par la qualité des eaux et par les conditions environnementales. Une méthodologie relativement simple d'estimation de la productivité qui prenne en compte tous ces facteurs a été mise au point. Cette méthodologie est basée surtout sur une analyse des données concernant le niveau piézométrique et le débit de prélèvement, quand ces données sont disponibles. De bonnes données opérationnelles sont particuli

Online Identification with Reliability Criterion and State of Charge Estimation Based on a Fuzzy Adaptive Extended Kalman Filter for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongwei Deng

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the field of state of charge (SOC estimation, the Kalman filter has been widely used for many years, although its performance strongly depends on the accuracy of the battery model as well as the noise covariance. The Kalman gain determines the confidence coefficient of the battery model by adjusting the weight of open circuit voltage (OCV correction, and has a strong correlation with the measurement noise covariance (R. In this paper, the online identification method is applied to acquire the real model parameters under different operation conditions. A criterion based on the OCV error is proposed to evaluate the reliability of online parameters. Besides, the equivalent circuit model produces an intrinsic model error which is dependent on the load current, and the property that a high battery current or a large current change induces a large model error can be observed. Based on the above prior knowledge, a fuzzy model is established to compensate the model error through updating R. Combining the positive strategy (i.e., online identification and negative strategy (i.e., fuzzy model, a more reliable and robust SOC estimation algorithm is proposed. The experiment results verify the proposed reliability criterion and SOC estimation method under various conditions for LiFePO4 batteries.

Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

1995-01-01

A number of software reliability models have been developed to estimate and to predict software reliability. However, there are no established standard models to quantify software reliability. Most models estimate the quality of software in reliability figures such as remaining faults, failure rate, or mean time to next failure at the testing phase, and they consider them ultimate indicators of software reliability. Experience shows that there is a large gap between predicted reliability during development and reliability measured during operation, which means that predicted reliability, or so-called test reliability, is not operational reliability. Customers prefer operational reliability to test reliability. In this study, we propose a method that predicts operational reliability rather than test reliability by introducing the testing environment factor that quantifies the changes in environments

Validity and Reliability of the Brazilian Version of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry--BREALD-30.

Science.gov (United States)

Junkes, Monica C; Fraiz, Fabian C; Sardenberg, Fernanda; Lee, Jessica Y; Paiva, Saul M; Ferreira, Fernanda M

2015-01-01

The aim of the present study was to translate, perform the cross-cultural adaptation of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry to Brazilian-Portuguese language and test the reliability and validity of this version. After translation and cross-cultural adaptation, interviews were conducted with 258 parents/caregivers of children in treatment at the pediatric dentistry clinics and health units in Curitiba, Brazil. To test the instrument's validity, the scores of Brazilian Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (BREALD-30) were compared based on occupation, monthly household income, educational attainment, general literacy, use of dental services and three dental outcomes. The BREALD-30 demonstrated good internal reliability. Cronbach's alpha ranged from 0.88 to 0.89 when words were deleted individually. The analysis of test-retest reliability revealed excellent reproducibility (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.983 and Kappa coefficient ranging from moderate to nearly perfect). In the bivariate analysis, BREALD-30 scores were significantly correlated with the level of general literacy (rs = 0.593) and income (rs = 0.327) and significantly associated with occupation, educational attainment, use of dental services, self-rated oral health and the respondent's perception regarding his/her child's oral health. However, only the association between the BREALD-30 score and the respondent's perception regarding his/her child's oral health remained significant in the multivariate analysis. The BREALD-30 demonstrated satisfactory psychometric properties and is therefore applicable to adults in Brazil.

Reliability of Wireless Sensor Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Dâmaso, Antônio; Rosa, Nelson; Maciel, Paulo

2014-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) consist of hundreds or thousands of sensor nodes with limited processing, storage, and battery capabilities. There are several strategies to reduce the power consumption of WSN nodes (by increasing the network lifetime) and increase the reliability of the network (by improving the WSN Quality of Service). However, there is an inherent conflict between power consumption and reliability: an increase in reliability usually leads to an increase in power consumption. For example, routing algorithms can send the same packet though different paths (multipath strategy), which it is important for reliability, but they significantly increase the WSN power consumption. In this context, this paper proposes a model for evaluating the reliability of WSNs considering the battery level as a key factor. Moreover, this model is based on routing algorithms used by WSNs. In order to evaluate the proposed models, three scenarios were considered to show the impact of the power consumption on the reliability of WSNs. PMID:25157553

Pulse Power Capability Estimation of Lithium Titanate Oxide-based Batteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stroe, Ana-Irina; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef; Stroe, Daniel Loan

2016-01-01

The pulse power capability (PPC) represents one of the parameters that describe the performance behavior of Lithium-ion batteries independent on the application. Consequently, extended information about the Li-ion battery PPC and its dependence on the operating conditions become necessary. Thus......, this paper analyzes the power capability characteristic of a 13Ah high power Lithium Titanate Oxide-based battery and its dependence on temperature, load current and state-of-charge. Furthermore, a model to predict the discharging PPC of the battery cell at different temperatures and load currents for three...

Methods of Estimation the Reliability and Increasing the Informativeness of the Laboratory Results (Analysis of the Laboratory Case of Measurement the Indicators of Thyroid Function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N A Kovyazina

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The goal of the study was to demonstrate the multilevel laboratory quality management system and point at the methods of estimating the reliability and increasing the amount of information content of the laboratory results (on the example of the laboratory case. Results. The article examines the stages of laboratory quality management which has helped to estimate the reliability of the results of determining Free T3, Free T4 and TSH. The measurement results are presented by the expanded uncertainty and the evaluation of the dynamics. Conclusion. Compliance with mandatory measures for laboratory quality management system enables laboratories to obtain reliable results and calculate the parameters that are able to increase the amount of information content of laboratory tests in clinical decision making.

Are Validity and Reliability "Relevant" in Qualitative Evaluation Research?

Science.gov (United States)

Goodwin, Laura D.; Goodwin, William L.

1984-01-01

The views of prominant qualitative methodologists on the appropriateness of validity and reliability estimation for the measurement strategies employed in qualitative evaluations are summarized. A case is made for the relevance of validity and reliability estimation. Definitions of validity and reliability for qualitative measurement are presented…

Proposed Reliability/Cost Model

Science.gov (United States)

Delionback, L. M.

1982-01-01

New technique estimates cost of improvement in reliability for complex system. Model format/approach is dependent upon use of subsystem cost-estimating relationships (CER's) in devising cost-effective policy. Proposed methodology should have application in broad range of engineering management decisions.

On estimation of reliability of a nuclear power plant with tokamak reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemin, A.I.; Smetannikov, V.P.; Shiverskij, E.A.

1982-01-01

The results of the analysis of INTOR plant reliability are presented. The first stage of the analysis consists in the calculation of the INTOR plant structural reliability factors (15 ibs main systems have been considered). For each system the failure flow parameter (W(1/h)) and operational readiness Ksub(r) have been determined which for the plant as a whole besides these factors-technological utilization coefficient Ksub(TU) and mean-cycles-between failures Tsub(o). The second stage of the reliability analysis consists in investigating methods of improving its reliability factors reratively to the one calculated at the first level stage. It is shown that the reliability of the whole plant to the most essential extent is determined by the power supply system reliability. The following as to the influence extent on the INTOR plant reliability is the cryogenic system. Calculations of the INTOR plant reliability factors have given the following values: W=4,5x10 -3 1/h. Tsub(o)=152 h, Ksub(r)=0,71, Ksub(TU)=o,4 g

Development of Nuclear Analysis Capabilities for DOE Waste Management Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parks, C.V.; Rearden, B.T.; Broadhead, B.L.; Petrie, L.M.; DeHart, M.D.; Hopper, C.M.

2000-01-01

The objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate prototypical analysis capabilities that can be used by nuclear safety analysis practitioners to: (1) demonstrate a more thorough understanding of the underlying physics phenomena that can lead to improved reliability and defensibility of safety evaluations; and (2) optimize operations related to the handling, storage, transportation, and disposal of fissile material and DOE spent fuel. To address these problems, this project has been investigating the implementation of sensitivity and uncertainty methods within existing Monte Carlo codes used for criticality safety analyses. It is also investigating the use of a new deterministic code that allows for specification of arbitrary grids to accurately model geometric details required in a criticality safety analysis. This capability can facilitate improved estimations of the required subcritical margin and potentially enable the use of a broader range of experiments in the validation process. The new arbitrary grid radiation transport code will also enable detailed geometric modeling valuable for improved accuracy in application to a myriad of other problems related to waste characterization. Application to these problems will also be explored. RESEARCH PROGRESS AND IMPLICATIONS

Evaluation of aileron actuator reliability with censored data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Huaiyuan

2015-08-01

Full Text Available For the purpose of enhancing reliability of aileron of Airbus new-generation A350XWB, an evaluation of aileron reliability on the basis of maintenance data is presented in this paper. Practical maintenance data contains large number of censoring samples, information uncertainty of which makes it hard to evaluate reliability of aileron actuator. Considering that true lifetime of censoring sample has identical distribution with complete sample, if censoring sample is transformed into complete sample, conversion frequency of censoring sample can be estimated according to frequency of complete sample. On the one hand, standard life table estimation and product limit method are improved on the basis of such conversion frequency, enabling accurate estimation of various censoring samples. On the other hand, by taking such frequency as one of the weight factors and integrating variance of order statistics under standard distribution, weighted least square estimation is formed for accurately estimating various censoring samples. Large amounts of experiments and simulations show that reliabilities of improved life table and improved product limit method are closer to the true value and more conservative; moreover, weighted least square estimate (WLSE, with conversion frequency of censoring sample and variances of order statistics as the weights, can still estimate accurately with high proportion of censored data in samples. Algorithm in this paper has good effect and can accurately estimate the reliability of aileron actuator even with small sample and high censoring rate. This research has certain significance in theory and engineering practice.

As reliable as the sun

Science.gov (United States)

Leijtens, J. A. P.

2017-11-01

Fortunately there is almost nothing as reliable as the sun which can consequently be utilized as a very reliable source of spacecraft power. In order to harvest this power, the solar panels have to be pointed towards the sun as accurately and reliably as possible. To this extend, sunsensors are available on almost every satellite to support vital sun-pointing capability throughout the mission, even in the deployment and save mode phases of the satellites life. Given the criticality of the application one would expect that after more than 50 years of sun sensor utilisation, such sensors would be fully matured and optimised. In actual fact though, the majority of sunsensors employed are still coarse sunsensors which have a proven extreme reliability but present major issues regarding albedo sensitivity and pointing accuracy.

Estimating the Optimal Capacity for Reservoir Dam based on Reliability Level for Meeting Demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehrdad Taghian

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: One of the practical and classic problems in the water resource studies is estimation of the optimal reservoir capacity to satisfy demands. However, full supplying demands for total periods need a very high dam to supply demands during severe drought conditions. That means a major part of reservoir capacity and costs is only usable for a short period of the reservoir lifetime, which would be unjustified in economic analysis. Thus, in the proposed method and model, the full meeting demand is only possible for a percent time of the statistical period that is according to reliability constraint. In the general methods, although this concept apparently seems simple, there is a necessity to add binary variables for meeting or not meeting demands in the linear programming model structures. Thus, with many binary variables, solving the problem will be time consuming and difficult. Another way to solve the problem is the application of the yield model. This model includes some simpler assumptions and that is so difficult to consider details of the water resource system. The applicationof evolutionary algorithms, for the problems have many constraints, is also very complicated. Therefore, this study pursues another solution. Materials and Methods: In this study, for development and improvement the usual methods, instead of mix integer linear programming (MILP and the above methods, a simulation model including flow network linear programming is used coupled with an interface manual code in Matlab to account the reliability based on output file of the simulation model. The acre reservoir simulation program (ARSP has been utilized as a simulation model. A major advantage of the ARSP is its inherent flexibility in defining the operating policies through a penalty structure specified by the user. The ARSP utilizes network flow optimization techniques to handle a subset of general linear programming (LP problems for individual time intervals

Learning Capability and Business Performance: A Non-Financial and Financial Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ma Prieto, Isabel; Revilla, Elena

2006-01-01

Purpose: There has been little research that includes reliable deductions about the positive influence of learning capability on business performance. For this reason, the main objective of the present study is to empirically explore the link between learning capability in organizations and business performance evaluated in both financial and…

Reliability Modeling of Electromechanical System with Meta-Action Chain Methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Genbao Zhang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available To establish a more flexible and accurate reliability model, the reliability modeling and solving algorithm based on the meta-action chain thought are used in this thesis. Instead of estimating the reliability of the whole system only in the standard operating mode, this dissertation adopts the structure chain and the operating action chain for the system reliability modeling. The failure information and structure information for each component are integrated into the model to overcome the given factors applied in the traditional modeling. In the industrial application, there may be different operating modes for a multicomponent system. The meta-action chain methodology can estimate the system reliability under different operating modes by modeling the components with varieties of failure sensitivities. This approach has been identified by computing some electromechanical system cases. The results indicate that the process could improve the system reliability estimation. It is an effective tool to solve the reliability estimation problem in the system under various operating modes.

78 FR 70356 - Compliance With Order EA-13-109, Order Modifying Licenses With Regard to Reliable Hardened...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-25

... Licenses With Regard to Reliable Hardened Containment Vents Capable of Operation Under Severe Accident... Regard to Reliable Hardened Containment Vents Capable of Operation under Severe Accident Conditions... capable of a operation under severe accident conditions. This ISG also endorses, with clarifications, the...

Reliable Quantification of the Potential for Equations Based on Spot Urine Samples to Estimate Population Salt Intake

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Liping; Crino, Michelle; Wu, Jason Hy

2016-01-01

to a standard format. Individual participant records will be compiled and a series of analyses will be completed to: (1) compare existing equations for estimating 24-hour salt intake from spot urine samples with 24-hour urine samples, and assess the degree of bias according to key demographic and clinical......BACKGROUND: Methods based on spot urine samples (a single sample at one time-point) have been identified as a possible alternative approach to 24-hour urine samples for determining mean population salt intake. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to identify a reliable method for estimating mean...... population salt intake from spot urine samples. This will be done by comparing the performance of existing equations against one other and against estimates derived from 24-hour urine samples. The effects of factors such as ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, antihypertensive drug use, health status...

Towards a national cybersecurity capability development model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Jacobs, Pierre C

2017-06-01

Full Text Available to be broken down into its components, a model serves as a blueprint to ensure that those building the capability considers all components, allows for cost estimation and facilitates the evaluation of trade-offs. One national cybersecurity capability...

Reliability estimation of structures under stochastic loading—A case study on nuclear piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hari Prasad, M.; Rami Reddy, G.; Dubey, P.N.; Srividya, A.; Verma, A.K.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Structures are generally subjected to different types of loadings. ► One such type of loading is random sequence and has been treated as a stochastic fatigue loading. ► In this methodology both stress amplitude and number of cycles to failure have been considered as random variables. ► The methodology has been demonstrated with a case study on nuclear piping. ► The failure probability of piping has been estimated as a function of time. - Abstract: Generally structures are subjected to different types of loadings throughout their life time. These loads can be either discrete in nature or continuous in nature and also these can be either stationary or non stationary processes. This means that the structural reliability analysis not only considers random variables but also considers random variables which are functions of time, referred to as stochastic processes. A stochastic process can be viewed as a family of random variables. When a structure is subjected to a random loading, based on the stresses developed in the structure and failure criteria the failure probability can be estimated. In practice the structures are designed with higher factor of safety to take care of such random loads. In such cases the structure will fail only when the random loads are cyclic in nature. In traditional reliability analysis, the variation in the load is treated as a random variable and to account for the number of occurrences of the loading the concept of extreme value theory is used. But with this method one is neglecting the damage accumulation that will take place from one loading to another loading. Hence, in this paper, a new way of dealing with these types of problems has been discussed by using the concept of stochastic fatigue loading. The random loading has been considered as earthquake loading. The methodology has been demonstrated with a case study on nuclear power plant piping.

Structural reliability of atomic power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemin, A.I.; Polyakov, E.F.

1980-01-01

In 1978 the first specialized technical manual ''Technique of Calculating the Structural Reliability of an Atomic Power Plant and Its Systems in the Design Stage'' was developed. The present article contains information about the main characteristics and capabilities of the manual. The manual gives recommendations concerning the calculations of the reliability of such specific systems as the reactor control and safety system, the system of instrumentation and automatic control, and safety systems. 2 refs

Space Logistics: Launch Capabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Furnas, Randall B.

1989-01-01

The current maximum launch capability for the United States are shown. The predicted Earth-to-orbit requirements for the United States are presented. Contrasting the two indicates the strong National need for a major increase in Earth-to-orbit lift capability. Approximate weights for planned payloads are shown. NASA is studying the following options to meet the need for a new heavy-lift capability by mid to late 1990's: (1) Shuttle-C for near term (include growth versions); and (2) the Advanced Lauching System (ALS) for the long term. The current baseline two-engine Shuttle-C has a 15 x 82 ft payload bay and an expected lift capability of 82,000 lb to Low Earth Orbit. Several options are being considered which have expanded diameter payload bays. A three-engine Shuttle-C with an expected lift of 145,000 lb to LEO is being evaluated as well. The Advanced Launch System (ALS) is a potential joint development between the Air Force and NASA. This program is focused toward long-term launch requirements, specifically beyond the year 2000. The basic approach is to develop a family of vehicles with the same high reliability as the Shuttle system, yet offering a much greater lift capability at a greatly reduced cost (per pound of payload). The ALS unmanned family of vehicles will provide a low end lift capability equivalent to Titan IV, and a high end lift capability greater than the Soviet Energia if requirements for such a high-end vehicle are defined.In conclusion, the planning of the next generation space telescope should not be constrained to the current launch vehicles. New vehicle designs will be driven by the needs of anticipated heavy users.

MAPPS (Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation): a computer simulation model for human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.

1985-01-01

A computer model has been developed, sensitivity tested, and evaluated capable of generating reliable estimates of human performance measures in the nuclear power plant (NPP) maintenance context. The model, entitled MAPPS (Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation), is of the simulation type and is task-oriented. It addresses a number of person-machine, person-environment, and person-person variables and is capable of providing the user with a rich spectrum of important performance measures including mean time for successful task performance by a maintenance team and maintenance team probability of task success. These two measures are particularly important for input to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies which were the primary impetus for the development of MAPPS. The simulation nature of the model along with its generous input parameters and output variables allows its usefulness to extend beyond its input to PRA

Standard error of measurement of 5 health utility indexes across the range of health for use in estimating reliability and responsiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Palta, Mari; Chen, Han-Yang; Kaplan, Robert M; Feeny, David; Cherepanov, Dasha; Fryback, Dennis G

2011-01-01

Standard errors of measurement (SEMs) of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) indexes are not well characterized. SEM is needed to estimate responsiveness statistics, and is a component of reliability. To estimate the SEM of 5 HRQoL indexes. The National Health Measurement Study (NHMS) was a population-based survey. The Clinical Outcomes and Measurement of Health Study (COMHS) provided repeated measures. A total of 3844 randomly selected adults from the noninstitutionalized population aged 35 to 89 y in the contiguous United States and 265 cataract patients. The SF6-36v2™, QWB-SA, EQ-5D, HUI2, and HUI3 were included. An item-response theory approach captured joint variation in indexes into a composite construct of health (theta). The authors estimated 1) the test-retest standard deviation (SEM-TR) from COMHS, 2) the structural standard deviation (SEM-S) around theta from NHMS, and 3) reliability coefficients. SEM-TR was 0.068 (SF-6D), 0.087 (QWB-SA), 0.093 (EQ-5D), 0.100 (HUI2), and 0.134 (HUI3), whereas SEM-S was 0.071, 0.094, 0.084, 0.074, and 0.117, respectively. These yield reliability coefficients 0.66 (COMHS) and 0.71 (NHMS) for SF-6D, 0.59 and 0.64 for QWB-SA, 0.61 and 0.70 for EQ-5D, 0.64 and 0.80 for HUI2, and 0.75 and 0.77 for HUI3, respectively. The SEM varied across levels of health, especially for HUI2, HUI3, and EQ-5D, and was influenced by ceiling effects. Limitations. Repeated measures were 5 mo apart, and estimated theta contained measurement error. The 2 types of SEM are similar and substantial for all the indexes and vary across health.

Reliability and protection against failure in computer systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniels, B.K.

1979-01-01

Computers are being increasingly integrated into the control and safety systems of large and potentially hazardous industrial processes. This development introduces problems which are particular to computer systems and opens the way to new techniques of solving conventional reliability and availability problems. References to the developing fields of software reliability, human factors and software design are given, and these subjects are related, where possible, to the quantified assessment of reliability. Original material is presented in the areas of reliability growth and computer hardware failure data. The report draws on the experience of the National Centre of Systems Reliability in assessing the capability and reliability of computer systems both within the nuclear industry, and from the work carried out in other industries by the Systems Reliability Service. (author)

Parts and Components Reliability Assessment: A Cost Effective Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lydia

2009-01-01

System reliability assessment is a methodology which incorporates reliability analyses performed at parts and components level such as Reliability Prediction, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to assess risks, perform design tradeoffs, and therefore, to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success. The system reliability is used to optimize the product design to accommodate today?s mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. Stand ard based reliability assessment is an effective approach consisting of reliability predictions together with other reliability analyses for electronic, electrical, and electro-mechanical (EEE) complex parts and components of large systems based on failure rate estimates published by the United States (U.S.) military or commercial standards and handbooks. Many of these standards are globally accepted and recognized. The reliability assessment is especially useful during the initial stages when the system design is still in the development and hard failure data is not yet available or manufacturers are not contractually obliged by their customers to publish the reliability estimates/predictions for their parts and components. This paper presents a methodology to assess system reliability using parts and components reliability estimates to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success in an efficient manner, low cost, and tight schedule.

Using personality item characteristics to predict single-item reliability, retest reliability, and self-other agreement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vries, Reinout Everhard; Realo, Anu; Allik, Jüri

2016-01-01

The use of reliability estimates is increasingly scrutinized as scholars become more aware that test–retest stability and self–other agreement provide a better approximation of the theoretical and practical usefulness of an instrument than its internal reliability. In this study, we investigate item

Validity and Reliability of the Brazilian Version of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry – BREALD-30

Science.gov (United States)

Junkes, Monica C.; Fraiz, Fabian C.; Sardenberg, Fernanda; Lee, Jessica Y.; Paiva, Saul M.; Ferreira, Fernanda M.

2015-01-01

Objective The aim of the present study was to translate, perform the cross-cultural adaptation of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry to Brazilian-Portuguese language and test the reliability and validity of this version. Methods After translation and cross-cultural adaptation, interviews were conducted with 258 parents/caregivers of children in treatment at the pediatric dentistry clinics and health units in Curitiba, Brazil. To test the instrument's validity, the scores of Brazilian Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (BREALD-30) were compared based on occupation, monthly household income, educational attainment, general literacy, use of dental services and three dental outcomes. Results The BREALD-30 demonstrated good internal reliability. Cronbach’s alpha ranged from 0.88 to 0.89 when words were deleted individually. The analysis of test-retest reliability revealed excellent reproducibility (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.983 and Kappa coefficient ranging from moderate to nearly perfect). In the bivariate analysis, BREALD-30 scores were significantly correlated with the level of general literacy (rs = 0.593) and income (rs = 0.327) and significantly associated with occupation, educational attainment, use of dental services, self-rated oral health and the respondent’s perception regarding his/her child's oral health. However, only the association between the BREALD-30 score and the respondent’s perception regarding his/her child's oral health remained significant in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion The BREALD-30 demonstrated satisfactory psychometric properties and is therefore applicable to adults in Brazil. PMID:26158724

Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao

2018-01-01

In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…

1/f noise as a reliability estimation for solar panels

Science.gov (United States)

Alabedra, R.; Orsal, B.

The purpose of this work is a study of the 1/f noise from a forward biased dark solar cell as a nondestructive reliability estimation of solar panels. It is shown that one cell with a given defect can be detected in a solar panel by low frequency noise measurements at obscurity. One real solar panel of 5 cells in parallel and 5 cells in series is tested by this method. The cells for space application are n(+)p monocrystalline silicon junction with an area of 8 sq cm and a base resistivity of 10 ohm/cm. In the first part of this paper the I-V, Rd=f(1) characteristics of one cell or of a panel are not modified when a small defect is introduced by a mechanical constraint. In the second part, the theoretical results on the 1/f noise in a p-n junction under forward bias are recalled. It is shown that the noise of the cell with a defect is about 10 to 15 times higher than that of a good cell. If one good cell is replaced by a cell with defect in the panel 5 x 5, this leads to an increase of about 30 percent of the noise level of the panel.

Reliability estimates for selected sensors in fusion applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.

1996-09-01

This report presents the results of a study to define several types of sensors in use, the qualitative reliability (failure modes) and quantitative reliability (average failure rates) for these types of process sensors. Temperature, pressure, flow, and level sensors are discussed for water coolant and for cryogenic coolants. The failure rates that have been found are useful for risk assessment and safety analysis. Repair times and calibration intervals are also given when found in the literature. All of these values can also be useful to plant operators and maintenance personnel. Designers may be able to make use of these data when planning systems. The final chapter in this report discusses failure rates for several types of personnel safety sensors, including ionizing radiation monitors, toxic and combustible gas detectors, humidity sensors, and magnetic field sensors. These data could be useful to industrial hygienists and other safety professionals when designing or auditing for personnel safety

Preliminary investigation on reliability of genomic estimated breeding values in the Danish and Swedish Holstein Population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Su, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Gregersen, V R

2010-01-01

or no effects, and a single prior distribution common for all SNP. It was found that, in general, the model with a common prior distribution of scaling factors had better predictive ability than any mixture prior models. Therefore, a common prior model was used to estimate SNP effects and breeding values......Abstract This study investigated the reliability of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) in the Danish Holstein population. The data in the analysis included 3,330 bulls with both published conventional EBV and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. After data editing, 38,134 SNP markers...... were available. In the analysis, all SNP were fitted simultaneously as random effects in a Bayesian variable selection model, which allows heterogeneous variances for different SNP markers. The response variables were the official EBV. Direct GEBV were calculated as the sum of individual SNP effects...

Inference on the reliability of Weibull distribution with multiply Type-I censored data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Jiang, Ping; Guo, Bo

2016-01-01

In this paper, we focus on the reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring, which is a general form of Type-I censoring. In multiply Type-I censoring in this study, all units in the life testing experiment are terminated at different times. Reliability estimation with the maximum likelihood estimate of Weibull parameters is conducted. With the delta method and Fisher information, we propose a confidence interval for reliability and compare it with the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap confidence interval. Furthermore, a scenario involving a few expert judgments of reliability is considered. A method is developed to generate extended estimations of reliability according to the original judgments and transform them to estimations of Weibull parameters. With Bayes theory and the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method, a posterior sample is obtained to compute the Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the proposed confidence interval outperforms the bootstrap one. The Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability are both satisfactory. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods. - Highlights: • We focus on reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring. • The proposed confidence interval for the reliability is superior after comparison. • The Bayes estimates with a few expert judgements on reliability are satisfactory. • We specify the cases where the MLEs do not exist and present methods to remedy it. • The distribution of estimate of reliability should be used for accurate estimate.

Reliable Dual Tensor Model Estimation in Single and Crossing Fibers Based on Jeffreys Prior

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jianfei; Poot, Dirk H. J.; Caan, Matthan W. A.; Su, Tanja; Majoie, Charles B. L. M.; van Vliet, Lucas J.; Vos, Frans M.

2016-01-01

Purpose This paper presents and studies a framework for reliable modeling of diffusion MRI using a data-acquisition adaptive prior. Methods Automated relevance determination estimates the mean of the posterior distribution of a rank-2 dual tensor model exploiting Jeffreys prior (JARD). This data-acquisition prior is based on the Fisher information matrix and enables the assessment whether two tensors are mandatory to describe the data. The method is compared to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) of the dual tensor model and to FSL’s ball-and-stick approach. Results Monte Carlo experiments demonstrated that JARD’s volume fractions correlated well with the ground truth for single and crossing fiber configurations. In single fiber configurations JARD automatically reduced the volume fraction of one compartment to (almost) zero. The variance in fractional anisotropy (FA) of the main tensor component was thereby reduced compared to MLE. JARD and MLE gave a comparable outcome in data simulating crossing fibers. On brain data, JARD yielded a smaller spread in FA along the corpus callosum compared to MLE. Tract-based spatial statistics demonstrated a higher sensitivity in detecting age-related white matter atrophy using JARD compared to both MLE and the ball-and-stick approach. Conclusions The proposed framework offers accurate and precise estimation of diffusion properties in single and dual fiber regions. PMID:27760166

Reliability of Circumplex Axes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Micha Strack

2013-06-01

Full Text Available We present a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA procedure for computing the reliability of circumplex axes. The tau-equivalent CFA variance decomposition model estimates five variance components: general factor, axes, scale-specificity, block-specificity, and item-specificity. Only the axes variance component is used for reliability estimation. We apply the model to six circumplex types and 13 instruments assessing interpersonal and motivational constructs—Interpersonal Adjective List (IAL, Interpersonal Adjective Scales (revised; IAS-R, Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP, Impact Messages Inventory (IMI, Circumplex Scales of Interpersonal Values (CSIV, Support Action Scale Circumplex (SAS-C, Interaction Problems With Animals (IPI-A, Team Role Circle (TRC, Competing Values Leadership Instrument (CV-LI, Love Styles, Organizational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI, Customer Orientation Circle (COC, and System for Multi-Level Observation of Groups (behavioral adjectives; SYMLOG—in 17 German-speaking samples (29 subsamples, grouped by self-report, other report, and metaperception assessments. The general factor accounted for a proportion ranging from 1% to 48% of the item variance, the axes component for 2% to 30%; and scale specificity for 1% to 28%, respectively. Reliability estimates varied considerably from .13 to .92. An application of the Nunnally and Bernstein formula proposed by Markey, Markey, and Tinsley overestimated axes reliabilities in cases of large-scale specificities but otherwise works effectively. Contemporary circumplex evaluations such as Tracey’s RANDALL are sensitive to the ratio of the axes and scale-specificity components. In contrast, the proposed model isolates both components.

Reliability-based design of wind turbine blades

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2011-01-01

Reliability-based design of wind turbine blades requires identification of the important failure modes/limit states along with stochastic models for the uncertainties and methods for estimating the reliability. In the present paper it is described how reliability-based design can be applied to wi...

Reliability evaluation of the Savannah River reactor leak detection system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daugherty, W.L.; Sindelar, R.L.; Wallace, I.T.

1991-01-01

The Savannah River Reactors have been in operation since the mid-1950's. The primary degradation mode for the primary coolant loop piping is intergranular stress corrosion cracking. The leak-before-break (LBB) capability of the primary system piping has been demonstrated as part of an overall structural integrity evaluation. One element of the LBB analyses is a reliability evaluation of the leak detection system. The most sensitive element of the leak detection system is the airborne tritium monitors. The presence of small amounts of tritium in the heavy water coolant provide the basis for a very sensitive system of leak detection. The reliability of the tritium monitors to properly identify a crack leaking at a rate of either 50 or 300 lb/day (0.004 or 0.023 gpm, respectively) has been characterized. These leak rates correspond to action points for which specific operator actions are required. High reliability has been demonstrated using standard fault tree techniques. The probability of not detecting a leak within an assumed mission time of 24 hours is estimated to be approximately 5 x 10 -5 per demand. This result is obtained for both leak rates considered. The methodology and assumptions used to obtain this result are described in this paper. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung

1995-02-01

Software reliability is especially important to customers these days. The need to quantify software reliability of safety-critical systems has been received very special attention and the reliability is rated as one of software's most important attributes. Since the software is an intellectual product of human activity and since it is logically complex, the failures are inevitable. No standard models have been established to prove the correctness and to estimate the reliability of software systems by analysis and/or testing. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factor comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this work to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factor Test reliability can also be estimated with this approach without any model change. The application results are close to the actual data. The approach used in this thesis is expected to be applicable to ultra high reliable software systems that are used in nuclear power plants, airplanes, and other safety-critical applications

Classifier Fusion With Contextual Reliability Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhunga; Pan, Quan; Dezert, Jean; Han, Jun-Wei; He, You

2018-05-01

Classifier fusion is an efficient strategy to improve the classification performance for the complex pattern recognition problem. In practice, the multiple classifiers to combine can have different reliabilities and the proper reliability evaluation plays an important role in the fusion process for getting the best classification performance. We propose a new method for classifier fusion with contextual reliability evaluation (CF-CRE) based on inner reliability and relative reliability concepts. The inner reliability, represented by a matrix, characterizes the probability of the object belonging to one class when it is classified to another class. The elements of this matrix are estimated from the -nearest neighbors of the object. A cautious discounting rule is developed under belief functions framework to revise the classification result according to the inner reliability. The relative reliability is evaluated based on a new incompatibility measure which allows to reduce the level of conflict between the classifiers by applying the classical evidence discounting rule to each classifier before their combination. The inner reliability and relative reliability capture different aspects of the classification reliability. The discounted classification results are combined with Dempster-Shafer's rule for the final class decision making support. The performance of CF-CRE have been evaluated and compared with those of main classical fusion methods using real data sets. The experimental results show that CF-CRE can produce substantially higher accuracy than other fusion methods in general. Moreover, CF-CRE is robust to the changes of the number of nearest neighbors chosen for estimating the reliability matrix, which is appealing for the applications.

Reliable computation from contextual correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Oestereich, André L.; Galvão, Ernesto F.

2017-12-01

An operational approach to the study of computation based on correlations considers black boxes with one-bit inputs and outputs, controlled by a limited classical computer capable only of performing sums modulo-two. In this setting, it was shown that noncontextual correlations do not provide any extra computational power, while contextual correlations were found to be necessary for the deterministic evaluation of nonlinear Boolean functions. Here we investigate the requirements for reliable computation in this setting; that is, the evaluation of any Boolean function with success probability bounded away from 1 /2 . We show that bipartite CHSH quantum correlations suffice for reliable computation. We also prove that an arbitrarily small violation of a multipartite Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger noncontextuality inequality also suffices for reliable computation.

Reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (TREALD-30).

Science.gov (United States)

Peker, Kadriye; Köse, Taha Emre; Güray, Beliz; Uysal, Ömer; Erdem, Tamer Lütfi

2017-04-01

To culturally adapt the Turkish version of Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (TREALD-30) for Turkish-speaking adult dental patients and to evaluate its psychometric properties. After translation and cross-cultural adaptation, TREALD-30 was tested in a sample of 127 adult patients who attended a dental school clinic in Istanbul. Data were collected through clinical examinations and self-completed questionnaires, including TREALD-30, the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP), the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM), two health literacy screening questions, and socio-behavioral characteristics. Psychometric properties were examined using Classical Test Theory (CTT) and Rasch analysis. Internal consistency (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.91) and test-retest reliability (Intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.99) were satisfactory for TREALD-30. It exhibited good convergent and predictive validity. Monthly family income, years of education, dental flossing, health literacy, and health literacy skills were found as stronger predictors of patients'oral health literacy (OHL). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed a two-factor model. The Rasch model explained 37.9% of the total variance in this dataset. In addition, TREALD-30 had eleven misfitting items, which indicated evidence of multidimensionality. The reliability indeces provided in Rasch analysis (person separation reliability = 0.91 and expected-a-posteriori/plausible reliability = 0.94) indicated that TREALD-30 had acceptable reliability. TREALD-30 showed satisfactory psychometric properties. It may be used to identify patients with low OHL. Socio-demographic factors, oral health behaviors and health literacy skills should be taken into account when planning future studies to assess the OHL in both clinical and community settings.

Reliability and Maintainability (RAM) Training

Science.gov (United States)

Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Packard, Michael H. (Editor)

2000-01-01

The theme of this manual is failure physics-the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low-cost reliable products. In a broader sense the manual should do more. It should underscore the urgent need CI for mature attitudes toward reliability. Five of the chapters were originally presented as a classroom course to over 1000 Martin Marietta engineers and technicians. Another four chapters and three appendixes have been added, We begin with a view of reliability from the years 1940 to 2000. Chapter 2 starts the training material with a review of mathematics and a description of what elements contribute to product failures. The remaining chapters elucidate basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures.

The Berg Balance Scale has high intra- and inter-rater reliability but absolute reliability varies across the scale: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Downs, Stephen; Marquez, Jodie; Chiarelli, Pauline

2013-06-01

What is the intra-rater and inter-rater relative reliability of the Berg Balance Scale? What is the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale? Does the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale vary across the scale? Systematic review with meta-analysis of reliability studies. Any clinical population that has undergone assessment with the Berg Balance Scale. Relative intra-rater reliability, relative inter-rater reliability, and absolute reliability. Eleven studies involving 668 participants were included in the review. The relative intrarater reliability of the Berg Balance Scale was high, with a pooled estimate of 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 0.99). Relative inter-rater reliability was also high, with a pooled estimate of 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.98). A ceiling effect of the Berg Balance Scale was evident for some participants. In the analysis of absolute reliability, all of the relevant studies had an average score of 20 or above on the 0 to 56 point Berg Balance Scale. The absolute reliability across this part of the scale, as measured by the minimal detectable change with 95% confidence, varied between 2.8 points and 6.6 points. The Berg Balance Scale has a higher absolute reliability when close to 56 points due to the ceiling effect. We identified no data that estimated the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale among participants with a mean score below 20 out of 56. The Berg Balance Scale has acceptable reliability, although it might not detect modest, clinically important changes in balance in individual subjects. The review was only able to comment on the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale among people with moderately poor to normal balance. Copyright © 2013 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by .. All rights reserved.

A Survey of Software Reliability Modeling and Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

1983-09-01

considered include: the Jelinski-Moranda Model, the ,Geometric Model,’ and Musa’s Model. A Monte -Carlo study of the behavior of the ’V"’"*least squares...ceedings Number 261, 1979, pp. 34-1, 34-11. IoelAmrit, AGieboSSukert, Alan and Goel, Ararat , "A Guidebookfor Software Reliability Assessment, 1980

Method matters: Understanding diagnostic reliability in DSM-IV and DSM-5.

Science.gov (United States)

Chmielewski, Michael; Clark, Lee Anna; Bagby, R Michael; Watson, David

2015-08-01

Diagnostic reliability is essential for the science and practice of psychology, in part because reliability is necessary for validity. Recently, the DSM-5 field trials documented lower diagnostic reliability than past field trials and the general research literature, resulting in substantial criticism of the DSM-5 diagnostic criteria. Rather than indicating specific problems with DSM-5, however, the field trials may have revealed long-standing diagnostic issues that have been hidden due to a reliance on audio/video recordings for estimating reliability. We estimated the reliability of DSM-IV diagnoses using both the standard audio-recording method and the test-retest method used in the DSM-5 field trials, in which different clinicians conduct separate interviews. Psychiatric patients (N = 339) were diagnosed using the SCID-I/P; 218 were diagnosed a second time by an independent interviewer. Diagnostic reliability using the audio-recording method (N = 49) was "good" to "excellent" (M κ = .80) and comparable to the DSM-IV field trials estimates. Reliability using the test-retest method (N = 218) was "poor" to "fair" (M κ = .47) and similar to DSM-5 field-trials' estimates. Despite low test-retest diagnostic reliability, self-reported symptoms were highly stable. Moreover, there was no association between change in self-report and change in diagnostic status. These results demonstrate the influence of method on estimates of diagnostic reliability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The reliability of the Glasgow Coma Scale: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Reith, Florence C M; Van den Brande, Ruben; Synnot, Anneliese; Gruen, Russell; Maas, Andrew I R

2016-01-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) provides a structured method for assessment of the level of consciousness. Its derived sum score is applied in research and adopted in intensive care unit scoring systems. Controversy exists on the reliability of the GCS. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize evidence on the reliability of the GCS. A literature search was undertaken in MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL. Observational studies that assessed the reliability of the GCS, expressed by a statistical measure, were included. Methodological quality was evaluated with the consensus-based standards for the selection of health measurement instruments checklist and its influence on results considered. Reliability estimates were synthesized narratively. We identified 52 relevant studies that showed significant heterogeneity in the type of reliability estimates used, patients studied, setting and characteristics of observers. Methodological quality was good (n = 7), fair (n = 18) or poor (n = 27). In good quality studies, kappa values were ≥0.6 in 85%, and all intraclass correlation coefficients indicated excellent reliability. Poor quality studies showed lower reliability estimates. Reliability for the GCS components was higher than for the sum score. Factors that may influence reliability include education and training, the level of consciousness and type of stimuli used. Only 13% of studies were of good quality and inconsistency in reported reliability estimates was found. Although the reliability was adequate in good quality studies, further improvement is desirable. From a methodological perspective, the quality of reliability studies needs to be improved. From a clinical perspective, a renewed focus on training/education and standardization of assessment is required.

Appraisal of the PREP, KITT, and SAMPLE computer codes for the evaluation of the reliability characteristics of engineered systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shaw, P; White, R F

1976-01-01

For the probabilistic approach to reactor safety assessment by the use of event tree and fault tree techniques it is essential to be able to estimate the probabilities of failure of the various engineered safety features provided to mitigate the effects of postulated accident sequences. The PREP, KITT and SAMPLE computer codes, which incorporate Kinetic Tree Theory, perform these calculations and have been used extensively to evaluate the reliability characteristics of engineered safety features of American nuclear reactors. Working versions of these computer codes are now available in SRD, and this report explains the merits, capabilities and ease of application of the PREP, KITT, and SAMPLE programs for the solution of system reliability problems.

Estimation of the Reliability of Plastic Slabs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pirzada, G. B. : Ph.D.

In this thesis, work related to fundamental conditions has been extended to non-fundamental or the general case of probabilistic analysis. Finally, using the ss-unzipping technique a door has been opened to system reliability analysis of plastic slabs. An attempt has been made in this thesis...... to give a probabilistic treatment of plastic slabs which is parallel to the deterministic and systematic treatment of plastic slabs by Nielsen (3). The fundamental reason is that in Nielsen (3) the treatment is based on a deterministic modelling of the basic material properties for the reinforced...

Examining the reliability of ADAS-Cog change scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Grochowalski, Joseph H; Liu, Ying; Siedlecki, Karen L

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate and examine ways to improve the reliability of change scores on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale, Cognitive Subtest (ADAS-Cog). The sample, provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, included individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (n = 153) and individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (n = 352). All participants were administered the ADAS-Cog at baseline and 1 year, and change scores were calculated as the difference in scores over the 1-year period. Three types of change score reliabilities were estimated using multivariate generalizability. Two methods to increase change score reliability were evaluated: reweighting the subtests of the scale and adding more subtests. Reliability of ADAS-Cog change scores over 1 year was low for both the AD sample (ranging from .53 to .64) and the MCI sample (.39 to .61). Reweighting the change scores from the AD sample improved reliability (.68 to .76), but lengthening provided no useful improvement for either sample. The MCI change scores had low reliability, even with reweighting and adding additional subtests. The ADAS-Cog scores had low reliability for measuring change. Researchers using the ADAS-Cog should estimate and report reliability for their use of the change scores. The ADAS-Cog change scores are not recommended for assessment of meaningful clinical change.

Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Kanjilal, Oindrila; Manohar, C. S.

2017-07-01

The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations.

Emergency diesel generator reliability program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serkiz, A.W.

1989-01-01

The need for an emergency diesel generator (EDG) reliability program has been established by 10 CFR Part 50, Section 50.63, Loss of All Alternating Current Power, which requires that utilities assess their station blackout duration and recovery capability. EDGs are the principal emergency ac power sources for coping with a station blackout. Regulatory Guide 1.155, Station Blackout, identifies a need for (1) an EDG reliability equal to or greater than 0.95, and (2) an EDG reliability program to monitor and maintain the required levels. The resolution of Generic Safety Issue (GSI) B-56 embodies the identification of a suitable EDG reliability program structure, revision of pertinent regulatory guides and Tech Specs, and development of an Inspection Module. Resolution of B-56 is coupled to the resolution of Unresolved Safety Issue (USI) A-44, Station Blackout, which resulted in the station blackout rule, 10 CFR 50.63 and Regulatory Guide 1.155, Station Blackout. This paper discusses the principal elements of an EDG reliability program developed for resolving GSI B-56 and related matters

Providing Reliability Services through Demand Response: A Prelimnary Evaluation of the Demand Response Capabilities of Alcoa Inc.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Starke, Michael R [ORNL; Kirby, Brendan J [ORNL; Kueck, John D [ORNL; Todd, Duane [Alcoa; Caulfield, Michael [Alcoa; Helms, Brian [Alcoa

2009-02-01

Demand response is the largest underutilized reliability resource in North America. Historic demand response programs have focused on reducing overall electricity consumption (increasing efficiency) and shaving peaks but have not typically been used for immediate reliability response. Many of these programs have been successful but demand response remains a limited resource. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) report, 'Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering' (FERC 2006) found that only five percent of customers are on some form of demand response program. Collectively they represent an estimated 37,000 MW of response potential. These programs reduce overall energy consumption, lower green house gas emissions by allowing fossil fuel generators to operate at increased efficiency and reduce stress on the power system during periods of peak loading. As the country continues to restructure energy markets with sophisticated marginal cost models that attempt to minimize total energy costs, the ability of demand response to create meaningful shifts in the supply and demand equations is critical to creating a sustainable and balanced economic response to energy issues. Restructured energy market prices are set by the cost of the next incremental unit of energy, so that as additional generation is brought into the market, the cost for the entire market increases. The benefit of demand response is that it reduces overall demand and shifts the entire market to a lower pricing level. This can be very effective in mitigating price volatility or scarcity pricing as the power system responds to changing demand schedules, loss of large generators, or loss of transmission. As a global producer of alumina, primary aluminum, and fabricated aluminum products, Alcoa Inc., has the capability to provide demand response services through its manufacturing facilities and uniquely through its aluminum smelting facilities. For a typical aluminum smelter

Location estimation of approaching objects is modulated by the observer's inherent and momentary action capabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kandula, Manasa; Hofman, Dennis; Dijkerman, H Chris

2016-01-01

Action capability may be one of the factors that can influence our percept of the world. A distinction can be made between momentary action capability (action capability at that particular moment) and inherent action capability (representing a stable action capability). In the current study, we

Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Shiu, A.; Cheng, Y.S.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

2014-01-01

Hong Kong has almost perfect electricity reliability, the result of substantial investments ultimately financed by electricity consumers who may be willing to accept lower reliability in exchange for lower bills. But consumers with high outage costs are likely to reject the reliability reduction. Our ordered-logit regression analysis of the responses by 1876 households to a telephone survey conducted in June 2013 indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a statistically-significant preference for their existing service reliability and rate. Moreover, the average residential cost estimate for a 1-h outage is US$45 (HK$350), topping the estimates reported in 10 of the 11 studies published in the last 10 years. The policy implication is that absent additional compelling evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its service reliability. - Highlights: • Use a contingent valuation survey to obtain residential preferences for reliability. • Use an ordered logit analysis to estimate Hong Kong's residential outage costs. • Find high outage cost estimates that imply high reliability requirements. • Conclude that sans new evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its reliability

Reliability of nuclear power plants and equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

The standard sets the general principles, a list of reliability indexes and demands on their selection. Reliability indexes of nuclear power plants include the simple indexes of fail-safe operation, life and maintainability, and of storage capability. All terms and notions are explained and methods of evaluating the indexes briefly listed - statistical, and calculation experimental. The dates when the standard comes in force in the individual CMEA countries are given. (M.D.)

Capabilities of a remote work vehicle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whittaker, W.L.; Champeny, L.

1987-01-01

The remote work vehicle (RWV) is a mobile work system for recovery operations in radiological environments. A teleoperated, electrohydraulically powered system, the RWV features omnidirectional locomotion, a telescoping boom with a seven meter reach, a master/slave manipulator, ten cameras, a tether for sustained power, and an offboard console where three operators control vehicle functions. (The RWV is more fully described elsewhere see bibliography; capability is emphasized here). Capabilities of the base vehicle and specialized tooling allow the RWV to perform accident recovery tasks, including demolishing concrete and steel structures, decontaminating and sealing surfaces, removing water and sediment from flooded areas, emplacing shields, packaging and transporting materials, and performing general inspections. Aspirations for reliability have made the RWV an order of magnitude more complex than its predecessor recovery robots, and ambitions for task performance have made it two orders of magnitude more capable. In addition to nuclear recovery work, the RWV is a viable candidate for other remote work applications, including nuclear facility maintenance and decommissioning

ASSESSING AND COMBINING RELIABILITY OF PROTEIN INTERACTION SOURCES

Science.gov (United States)

LEACH, SONIA; GABOW, AARON; HUNTER, LAWRENCE; GOLDBERG, DEBRA S.

2008-01-01

Integrating diverse sources of interaction information to create protein networks requires strategies sensitive to differences in accuracy and coverage of each source. Previous integration approaches calculate reliabilities of protein interaction information sources based on congruity to a designated ‘gold standard.’ In this paper, we provide a comparison of the two most popular existing approaches and propose a novel alternative for assessing reliabilities which does not require a gold standard. We identify a new method for combining the resultant reliabilities and compare it against an existing method. Further, we propose an extrinsic approach to evaluation of reliability estimates, considering their influence on the downstream tasks of inferring protein function and learning regulatory networks from expression data. Results using this evaluation method show 1) our method for reliability estimation is an attractive alternative to those requiring a gold standard and 2) the new method for combining reliabilities is less sensitive to noise in reliability assignments than the similar existing technique. PMID:17990508

Reliability Assessment of IGBT Modules Modeled as Systems with Correlated Components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2013-01-01

configuration. The estimated system reliability by the proposed method is a conservative estimate. Application of the suggested method could be extended for reliability estimation of systems composing of welding joints, bolts, bearings, etc. The reliability model incorporates the correlation between...... was applied for the systems failure functions estimation. It is desired to compare the results with the true system failure function, which is possible to estimate using simulation techniques. Theoretical model development should be applied for the further research. One of the directions for it might...... be modeling the system based on the Sequential Order Statistics, by considering the failure of the minimum (weakest component) at each loading level. The proposed idea to represent the system by the independent components could also be used for modeling reliability by Sequential Order Statistics....

Towards easy and reliable AFM tip shape determination using blind tip reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flater, Erin E.; Zacharakis-Jutz, George E.; Dumba, Braulio G.; White, Isaac A.; Clifford, Charles A.

2014-01-01

Quantitative determination of the geometry of an atomic force microscope (AFM) probe tip is critical for robust measurements of the nanoscale properties of surfaces, including accurate measurement of sample features and quantification of tribological characteristics. Blind tip reconstruction, which determines tip shape from an AFM image scan without knowledge of tip or sample shape, was established most notably by Villarrubia [J. Res. Natl. Inst. Stand. Tech. 102 (1997)] and has been further developed since that time. Nevertheless, the implementation of blind tip reconstruction for the general user to produce reliable and consistent estimates of tip shape has been hindered due to ambiguity about how to choose the key input parameters, such as tip matrix size and threshold value, which strongly impact the results of the tip reconstruction. These key parameters are investigated here via Villarrubia's blind tip reconstruction algorithms in which we have added the capability for users to systematically vary the key tip reconstruction parameters, evaluate the set of possible tip reconstructions, and determine the optimal tip reconstruction for a given sample. We demonstrate the capabilities of these algorithms through analysis of a set of simulated AFM images and provide practical guidelines for users of the blind tip reconstruction method. We present a reliable method to choose the threshold parameter corresponding to an optimal reconstructed tip shape for a given image. Specifically, we show that the trend in how the reconstructed tip shape varies with threshold number is so regular that the optimal, or Goldilocks, threshold value corresponds with the peak in the derivative of the RMS difference with respect to the zero threshold curve vs. threshold number. - Highlights: • Blind tip reconstruction algorithms have been implemented and augmented to determine the optimal input parameters. • We demonstrate the capabilities of the algorithms using a simulated AFM

Reliability estimate of unconfined compressive strength of black cotton soil stabilized with cement and quarry dust

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dayo Oluwatoyin AKANBI

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Reliability estimates of unconfined compressive strength values from laboratory results for specimens compacted at British Standard Light (BSLfor compacted quarry dust treated black cotton soil using cement for road sub – base material was developed by incorporating data obtained from Unconfined compressive strength (UCS test gotten from the laboratory test to produce a predictive model. Data obtained were incorporated into a FORTRAN-based first-order reliability program to obtain reliability index values. Variable factors such as water content relative to optimum (WRO, hydraulic modulus (HM, quarry dust (QD, cement (C, Tri-Calcium silicate (C3S, Di-calcium silicate (C2S, Tri-Calcium Aluminate (C3A, and maximum dry density (MDD produced acceptable safety index value of1.0and they were achieved at coefficient of variation (COV ranges of 10-100%. Observed trends indicate that WRO, C3S, C2S and MDD are greatly influenced by the COV and therefore must be strictly controlled in QD/C treated black cotton soil for use as sub-base material in road pavements. Stochastically, British Standard light (BSL can be used to model the 7 days unconfined compressive strength of compacted quarry dust/cement treated black cotton soil as a sub-base material for road pavement at all coefficient of variation (COV range 10 – 100% because the safety index obtained are higher than the acceptable 1.0 value.

Standard error of measurement of five health utility indexes across the range of health for use in estimating reliability and responsiveness

Science.gov (United States)

Palta, Mari; Chen, Han-Yang; Kaplan, Robert M.; Feeny, David; Cherepanov, Dasha; Fryback, Dennis

2011-01-01

Background Standard errors of measurement (SEMs) of health related quality of life (HRQoL) indexes are not well characterized. SEM is needed to estimate responsiveness statistics and provides guidance on using indexes on the individual and group level. SEM is also a component of reliability. Purpose To estimate SEM of five HRQoL indexes. Design The National Health Measurement Study (NHMS) was a population based telephone survey. The Clinical Outcomes and Measurement of Health Study (COMHS) provided repeated measures 1 and 6 months post cataract surgery. Subjects 3844 randomly selected adults from the non-institutionalized population 35 to 89 years old in the contiguous United States and 265 cataract patients. Measurements The SF6-36v2™, QWB-SA, EQ-5D, HUI2 and HUI3 were included. An item-response theory (IRT) approach captured joint variation in indexes into a composite construct of health (theta). We estimated: (1) the test-retest standard deviation (SEM-TR) from COMHS, (2) the structural standard deviation (SEM-S) around the composite construct from NHMS and (3) corresponding reliability coefficients. Results SEM-TR was 0.068 (SF-6D), 0.087 (QWB-SA), 0.093 (EQ-5D), 0.100 (HUI2) and 0.134 (HUI3), while SEM-S was 0.071, 0.094, 0.084, 0.074 and 0.117, respectively. These translate into reliability coefficients for SF-6D: 0.66 (COMHS) and 0.71 (NHMS), for QWB: 0.59 and 0.64, for EQ-5D: 0.61 and 0.70 for HUI2: 0.64 and 0.80, and for HUI3: 0.75 and 0.77, respectively. The SEM varied considerably across levels of health, especially for HUI2, HUI3 and EQ-5D, and was strongly influenced by ceiling effects. Limitations Repeated measures were five months apart and estimated theta contain measurement error. Conclusions The two types of SEM are similar and substantial for all the indexes, and vary across the range of health. PMID:20935280

Physician capability to electronically exchange clinical information, 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Vaishali; Swain, Matthew J; King, Jennifer; Furukawa, Michael F

2013-10-01

To provide national estimates of physician capability to electronically share clinical information with other providers and to describe variation in exchange capability across states and electronic health record (EHR) vendors using the 2011 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey Electronic Medical Record Supplement. Survey of a nationally representative sample of nonfederal office-based physicians who provide direct patient care. The survey was administered by mail with telephone follow-up and had a 61% weighted response rate. The overall sample consisted of 4326 respondents. We calculated estimates of electronic exchange capability at the national and state levels, and applied multivariate analyses to examine the association between the capability to exchange different types of clinical information and physician and practice characteristics. In 2011, 55% of physicians had computerized capability to send prescriptions electronically; 67% had the capability to view lab results electronically; 42% were able to incorporate lab results into their EHR; 35% were able to send lab orders electronically; and, 31% exchanged patient clinical summaries with other providers. The strongest predictor of exchange capability is adoption of an EHR. However, substantial variation exists across geography and EHR vendors in exchange capability, especially electronic exchange of clinical summaries. In 2011, a majority of office-based physicians could exchange lab and medication data, and approximately one-third could exchange clinical summaries with patients or other providers. EHRs serve as a key mechanism by which physicians can exchange clinical data, though physicians' capability to exchange varies by vendor and by state.

Ore reserve estimation of uranium deposit Zirovski vrh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lukacs, E.

1979-01-01

The uranium ore deposit Zirovski vrh is in the Permian sediments of Northwest Yugoslavia. Lenticular bodies occur at several stratiform levels in grey, medium-grained sandstone. The ore deposit will be mined entirely by underground methods. It is possible to define three stages of deposit evaluation requiring different densities of exploration effort: preliminary evaluation of in situ ore reserves; evaluation of mineable ore reserves; evaluation of production capability and mine planning. The drilling density increases markedly with each succeeding stage. The optimal drilling density for all three stages of evaluation should be determined, but there is some concern that too close spaced drilling would considerably increase the exploration costs without a corresponding increase in effectiveness. On the other hand, too sparsely spaced drilling may result in some difficulties in following the ore in mining. The paper treats the problem of the density of drilling for evaluation of mineable ore reserves compared to that required for mine planning and mine production capability. The purpose of investigation of mineral raw materials is to define economic deposits (ore bodies). To evaluate the deposit economically an accurate reserve estimate is required. If it is accordingly established that such an estimate is within the degree of admissible error, the purpose of the exploration is satisfied. However, the problem as to whether the drilling grid is sufficiently dense remains, because the majority of estimates of ore reserves do not provide a measure of the reliability of the estimate. (author)

Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

Does organizational agility affect organizational learning capability? Evidence from commercial banking

OpenAIRE

Zaina Mustafa Mahmoud Hamad; Uğur Yozgat

2017-01-01

Both organizational agility and learning capability are prerequisites for organizational survival and success. This study explores the contribution of agility practices to organizational learning capabilities at the commercial banks in Jordan. To examine the proposed model, a sample of 158 employees within top and middle managements was used. Structural Equation Modeling was conducted for assessing validity and reliability of measurement instrument, evaluating model fit, and testing hypothese...

TFTR CAMAC power supplies reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camp, R.A.; Bergin, W.

1989-01-01

Since the expected life of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) has been extended into the early 1990's, the issues of equipment wear-out, when to refurbish/replace, and the costs associated with these decisions, must be faced. The management of the maintenance of the TFTR Central Instrumentation, Control and Data Acquisition System (CICADA) power supplies within the CAMAC network is a case study of a set of systems to monitor repairable systems reliability, costs, and results of action. The CAMAC network is composed of approximately 500 racks, each with its own power supply. By using a simple reliability estimator on a coarse time interval, in conjunction with determining the root cause of individual failures, a cost effective repair and maintenance program has been realized. This paper describes the estimator, some of the specific causes for recurring failures and their correction, and the subsequent effects on the reliability estimator. By extension of this program the authors can assess the continued viability of CAMAC power supplies into the future, predicting wear-out and developing cost effective refurbishment/replacement policies. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

An accurate and efficient reliability-based design optimization using the second order reliability method and improved stability transformation method

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Zeng; Yang, Dixiong; Zhou, Huanlin; Yu, Bo

2018-05-01

The first order reliability method has been extensively adopted for reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), but it shows inaccuracy in calculating the failure probability with highly nonlinear performance functions. Thus, the second order reliability method is required to evaluate the reliability accurately. However, its application for RBDO is quite challenge owing to the expensive computational cost incurred by the repeated reliability evaluation and Hessian calculation of probabilistic constraints. In this article, a new improved stability transformation method is proposed to search the most probable point efficiently, and the Hessian matrix is calculated by the symmetric rank-one update. The computational capability of the proposed method is illustrated and compared to the existing RBDO approaches through three mathematical and two engineering examples. The comparison results indicate that the proposed method is very efficient and accurate, providing an alternative tool for RBDO of engineering structures.

Solid State Lighting Reliability Components to Systems

CERN Document Server

Fan, XJ

2013-01-01

Solid State Lighting Reliability: Components to Systems begins with an explanation of the major benefits of solid state lighting (SSL) when compared to conventional lighting systems including but not limited to long useful lifetimes of 50,000 (or more) hours and high efficacy. When designing effective devices that take advantage of SSL capabilities the reliability of internal components (optics, drive electronics, controls, thermal design) take on critical importance. As such a detailed discussion of reliability from performance at the device level to sub components is included as well as the integrated systems of SSL modules, lamps and luminaires including various failure modes, reliability testing and reliability performance. This book also: Covers the essential reliability theories and practices for current and future development of Solid State Lighting components and systems Provides a systematic overview for not only the state-of-the-art, but also future roadmap and perspectives of Solid State Lighting r...

What are estimated reimbursements for lower extremity prostheses capable of surgical and nonsurgical lengthening?

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Eric R; Pepper, Andrew M; Letson, G Douglas

2012-04-01

Growing prostheses accommodate skeletally immature patients with bone tumors undergoing limb-preserving surgery. Early devices required surgical procedures for lengthening; recent devices lengthen without surgery. Expenses for newer expandable devices that lengthen without surgery are more than for their predecessors but overall reimbursement amounts are not known. We sought to determine reimbursement amounts associated with lengthening of growing prostheses requiring surgical and nonsurgical lengthening. We retrospectively reviewed 17 patients with growing prostheses requiring surgical expansion and eight patients with prostheses capable of nonsurgical expansion. Insurance documents were reviewed to determine the reimbursement for implantation, lengthening, and complications. Growth data were obtained from the literature. Mean reimbursement amounts of surgical and nonsurgical lengthenings were $9950 and $272, respectively. Estimated reimbursements associated with implantation of a growing prosthesis varied depending on age, sex, and location. The largest difference was found for 4-year-old boys with distal femoral replacement where reimbursement for expansion to maturity for surgical and nonsurgical lengthening prostheses would be $379,000 and $208,000, respectively. For children requiring more than one surgical expansion, net reimbursements were lower when a noninvasive lengthening device was used. Annual per-prosthesis maintenance reimbursements to address complications for surgical and nonsurgical lengthening prostheses were $3386 and $1856, respectively. This study showed that reimbursements for lengthening of growing endoprostheses capable of nonsurgical expansion may be less expensive in younger patients, particularly male patients undergoing distal femur replacement, than endoprostheses requiring surgical lengthening. Longer outcomes studies are required to see if reimbursements for complications differ between devices. Level III, economic and decision

A Web-Based System for Bayesian Benchmark Dose Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Kan; Shapiro, Andrew J

2018-01-11

Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is an important step in human health risk assessment and is used as the default approach to identify the point of departure for risk assessment. A probabilistic framework for dose-response assessment has been proposed and advocated by various institutions and organizations; therefore, a reliable tool is needed to provide distributional estimates for BMD and other important quantities in dose-response assessment. We developed an online system for Bayesian BMD (BBMD) estimation and compared results from this software with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS). The system is built on a Bayesian framework featuring the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model parameter estimation and BMD calculation, which makes the BBMD system fundamentally different from the currently prevailing BMD software packages. In addition to estimating the traditional BMDs for dichotomous and continuous data, the developed system is also capable of computing model-averaged BMD estimates. A total of 518 dichotomous and 108 continuous data sets extracted from the U.S. EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database (and similar databases) were used as testing data to compare the estimates from the BBMD and BMDS programs. The results suggest that the BBMD system may outperform the BMDS program in a number of aspects, including fewer failed BMD and BMDL calculations and estimates. The BBMD system is a useful alternative tool for estimating BMD with additional functionalities for BMD analysis based on most recent research. Most importantly, the BBMD has the potential to incorporate prior information to make dose-response modeling more reliable and can provide distributional estimates for important quantities in dose-response assessment, which greatly facilitates the current trend for probabilistic risk assessment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1289.

The effect of loss functions on empirical Bayes reliability analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camara Vincent A. R.

1998-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of empirical Bayes estimates of the reliability function with respect to changing of the loss function. In addition to applying some of the basic analytical results on empirical Bayes reliability obtained with the use of the “popular” squared error loss function, we shall derive some expressions corresponding to empirical Bayes reliability estimates obtained with the Higgins–Tsokos, the Harris and our proposed logarithmic loss functions. The concept of efficiency, along with the notion of integrated mean square error, will be used as a criterion to numerically compare our results. It is shown that empirical Bayes reliability functions are in general sensitive to the choice of the loss function, and that the squared error loss does not always yield the best empirical Bayes reliability estimate.

Enhancement of kalman filter single loss detection capability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrison, G.W.; Downing, D.J.; Pike, D.H.

1980-01-01

A new technique to significantly increase the sensitivity of the Kalman filter to detect one-time losses for nuclear marterial accountability and control has been developed. The technique uses the innovations sequence obtained from a Kalman filter analysis of a material balance area. The innovations are distributed as zero mean independent Gaussion random variables with known variance. This property enables an estimator to be formed with enhanced one time loss detection capabilities. Simulation studies of a material balance area indicate the new estimator greatly enhances the one time loss detection capability of the Kalman filter

Scale Reliability Evaluation with Heterogeneous Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling approach for scale reliability evaluation in heterogeneous populations is discussed. The method can be used for point and interval estimation of reliability of multicomponent measuring instruments in populations representing mixtures of an unknown number of latent classes or subpopulations. The procedure is helpful also…

A Closed-Form Technique for the Reliability and Risk Assessment of Wind Turbine Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a closed-form method to evaluate wind turbine system reliability and associated failure consequences. Monte Carlo simulation, a widely used approach for system reliability assessment, usually requires large numbers of computational experiments, while existing analytical methods are limited to simple system event configurations with a focus on average values of reliability metrics. By analyzing a wind turbine system and its components in a combinatorial yet computationally efficient form, the proposed approach provides an entire probability distribution of system failure that contains all possible configurations of component failure and survival events. The approach is also capable of handling unique component attributes such as downtime and repair cost needed for risk estimations, and enables sensitivity analysis for quantifying the criticality of individual components to wind turbine system reliability. Applications of the technique are illustrated by assessing the reliability of a 12-subassembly turbine system. In addition, component downtimes and repair costs of components are embedded in the formulation to compute expected annual wind turbine unavailability and repair cost probabilities, and component importance metrics useful for maintenance planning and research prioritization. Furthermore, this paper introduces a recursive solution to closed-form method and applies this to a 45-component turbine system. The proposed approach proves to be computationally efficient and yields vital reliability information that could be readily used by wind farm stakeholders for decision making and risk management.

Reliability of different sampling densities for estimating and mapping lichen diversity in biomonitoring studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferretti, M.; Brambilla, E.; Brunialti, G.; Fornasier, F.; Mazzali, C.; Giordani, P.; Nimis, P.L.

2004-01-01

Sampling requirements related to lichen biomonitoring include optimal sampling density for obtaining precise and unbiased estimates of population parameters and maps of known reliability. Two available datasets on a sub-national scale in Italy were used to determine a cost-effective sampling density to be adopted in medium-to-large-scale biomonitoring studies. As expected, the relative error in the mean Lichen Biodiversity (Italian acronym: BL) values and the error associated with the interpolation of BL values for (unmeasured) grid cells increased as the sampling density decreased. However, the increase in size of the error was not linear and even a considerable reduction (up to 50%) in the original sampling effort led to a far smaller increase in errors in the mean estimates (<6%) and in mapping (<18%) as compared with the original sampling densities. A reduction in the sampling effort can result in considerable savings of resources, which can then be used for a more detailed investigation of potentially problematic areas. It is, however, necessary to decide the acceptable level of precision at the design stage of the investigation, so as to select the proper sampling density. - An acceptable level of precision must be decided before determining a sampling design

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

An Accurate FFPA-PSR Estimator Algorithm and Tool for Software Effort Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Senthil Kumar Murugesan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Software companies are now keen to provide secure software with respect to accuracy and reliability of their products especially related to the software effort estimation. Therefore, there is a need to develop a hybrid tool which provides all the necessary features. This paper attempts to propose a hybrid estimator algorithm and model which incorporates quality metrics, reliability factor, and the security factor with a fuzzy-based function point analysis. Initially, this method utilizes a fuzzy-based estimate to control the uncertainty in the software size with the help of a triangular fuzzy set at the early development stage. Secondly, the function point analysis is extended by the security and reliability factors in the calculation. Finally, the performance metrics are added with the effort estimation for accuracy. The experimentation is done with different project data sets on the hybrid tool, and the results are compared with the existing models. It shows that the proposed method not only improves the accuracy but also increases the reliability, as well as the security, of the product.

Capabilities required to conduct the LLNL plutonium mission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kass, J.; Bish, W.; Copeland, A.; West, J.; Sack, S.; Myers, B.

1991-01-01

This report outlines the LLNL plutonium related mission anticipated over the next decade and defines the capabilities required to meet that mission wherever the Plutonium Facility is located. If plutonium work is relocated to a place where the facility is shared, then some capabilities can be commonly used by the sharing parties. However, it is essential that LLNL independently control about 20000 sq ft of net lab space, filled with LLNL controlled equipment, and staffed by LLNL employees. It is estimated that the cost to construct this facility should range from $140M to $200M. Purchase and installation of equipment to replace that already in Bldg 332 along with additional equipment identified as being needed to meet the mission for the next ten to fifteen years, is estimated to cost $118M. About $29M of the equipment could be shared. The Hardened Engineering Test Building (HETB) with its additional 8000 sq ft of unique test capability must also be replaced. The fully equipped replacement cost is estimated to be about $10M. About 40000 sq ft of setup and support space are needed along with office and related facilities for a 130 person resident staff. The setup space is estimated to cost $8M. The annual cost of a 130 person resident staff (100 programmatic and 30 facility operation) is estimated to be $20M

Reliability-Based Decision Fusion in Multimodal Biometric Verification Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kryszczuk Krzysztof

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology of reliability estimation in the multimodal biometric verification scenario. Reliability estimation has shown to be an efficient and accurate way of predicting and correcting erroneous classification decisions in both unimodal (speech, face, online signature and multimodal (speech and face systems. While the initial research results indicate the high potential of the proposed methodology, the performance of the reliability estimation in a multimodal setting has not been sufficiently studied or evaluated. In this paper, we demonstrate the advantages of using the unimodal reliability information in order to perform an efficient biometric fusion of two modalities. We further show the presented method to be superior to state-of-the-art multimodal decision-level fusion schemes. The experimental evaluation presented in this paper is based on the popular benchmarking bimodal BANCA database.

Development of web-based reliability data base platform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Chang Ju; Sung, Key Yong

2004-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is a systematic technique which estimates the degree of risk impacts to the public due to an accident scenario. Estimating the occurrence frequencies and consequences of potential scenarios requires a thorough analysis of the accident details and all fundamental parameters. The robustness of PSA to check weaknesses in a design and operation will allow a better informed and balanced decision to be reached. The fundamental parameters for PSA, such as the component failure rates, should be estimated under the condition of steady collection of the evidence throughout the operational period. However, since any single plant data does not sufficiently enough to provide an adequate PSA result, in actual, the whole operating data was commonly used to estimate the reliability parameters for the same type of components. The reliability data of any component type consists of two categories; the generic that is based on the operating experiences of whole plants, and the plant-specific that is based on the operation of a specific plant of interest. The generic data is highly essential for new or recently-built nuclear power plants (NPPs). Generally, the reliability data base may be categorized into the component reliability, initiating event frequencies, human performance, and so on. Among these data, the component reliability seems a key element because it has the most abundant population. Therefore, the component reliability data is essential for taking a part in the quantification of accident sequences because it becomes an input of various basic events which consists of the fault tree

Reliability of histologic assessment in patients with eosinophilic oesophagitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Warners, M J; Ambarus, C A; Bredenoord, A J; Verheij, J; Lauwers, G Y; Walsh, J C; Katzka, D A; Nelson, S; van Viegen, T; Furuta, G T; Gupta, S K; Stitt, L; Zou, G; Parker, C E; Shackelton, L M; D Haens, G R; Sandborn, W J; Dellon, E S; Feagan, B G; Collins, M H; Jairath, V; Pai, R K

2018-04-01

The validity of the eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoE) histologic scoring system (EoEHSS) has been demonstrated, but only preliminary reliability data exist. Formally assess the reliability of the EoEHSS and additional histologic features. Four expert gastrointestinal pathologists independently reviewed slides from adult patients with EoE (N = 45) twice, in random order, using standardised training materials and scoring conventions for the EoEHSS and additional histologic features agreed upon during a modified Delphi process. Intra- and inter-rater reliability for scoring the EoEHSS, a visual analogue scale (VAS) of overall histopathologic disease severity, and additional histologic features were assessed using intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). Almost perfect intra-rater reliability was observed for the composite EoEHSS scores and the VAS. Inter-rater reliability was also almost perfect for the composite EoEHSS scores and substantial for the VAS. Of the EoEHSS items, eosinophilic inflammation was associated with the highest ICC estimates and consistent with almost perfect intra- and inter-rater reliability. With the exception of dyskeratotic epithelial cells and surface epithelial alteration, ICC estimates for the remaining EoEHSS items were above the benchmarks for substantial intra-rater, and moderate inter-rater reliability. Estimation of peak eosinophil count and number of lamina propria eosinophils were associated with the highest ICC estimates among the exploratory items. The composite EoEHSS and most component items are associated with substantial reliability when assessed by central pathologists. Future studies should assess responsiveness of the score to change after a therapeutic intervention to facilitate its use in clinical trials. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparing performance level estimation of safety functions in three distributed structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hietikko, Marita; Malm, Timo; Saha, Heikki

2015-01-01

The capability of a machine control system to perform a safety function is expressed using performance levels (PL). This paper presents the results of a study where PL estimation was carried out for a safety function implemented using three different distributed control system structures. Challenges relating to the process of estimating PLs for safety related distributed machine control functions are highlighted. One of these examines the use of different cabling schemes in the implementation of a safety function and its effect on the PL evaluation. The safety function used as a generic example in PL calculations relates to a mobile work machine. It is a safety stop function where different technologies (electrical, hydraulic and pneumatic) can be utilized. It was detected that by replacing analogue cables with digital communication the system structure becomes simpler with less number of failing components, which can better the PL of the safety function. - Highlights: • Integration in distributed systems enables systems with less components. • It offers high reliability and diagnostic properties. • Analogue signals create uncertainty in signal reliability and difficult diagnostics

A reliable sewage quality abnormal event monitoring system.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Tianling; Winnel, Melissa; Lin, Hao; Panther, Jared; Liu, Chang; O'Halloran, Roger; Wang, Kewen; An, Taicheng; Wong, Po Keung; Zhang, Shanqing; Zhao, Huijun

2017-09-15

With closing water loop through purified recycled water, wastewater becomes a part of source water, requiring reliable wastewater quality monitoring system (WQMS) to manage wastewater source and mitigate potential health risks. However, the development of reliable WQMS is fatally constrained by severe contamination and biofouling of sensors due to the hostile analytical environment of wastewaters, especially raw sewages, that challenges the limit of existing sensing technologies. In this work, we report a technological solution to enable the development of WQMS for real-time abnormal event detection with high reliability and practicality. A vectored high flow hydrodynamic self-cleaning approach and a dual-sensor self-diagnostic concept are adopted for WQMS to effectively encounter vital sensor failing issues caused by contamination and biofouling and ensure the integrity of sensing data. The performance of the WQMS has been evaluated over a 3-year trial period at different sewage catchment sites across three Australian states. It has demonstrated that the developed WQMS is capable of continuously operating in raw sewage for a prolonged period up to 24 months without maintenance and failure, signifying the high reliability and practicality. The demonstrated WQMS capability to reliably acquire real-time wastewater quality information leaps forward the development of effective wastewater source management system. The reported self-cleaning and self-diagnostic concepts should be applicable to other online water quality monitoring systems, opening a new way to encounter the common reliability and stability issues caused by sensor contamination and biofouling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of reflectance measures in passive filters

Science.gov (United States)

Saldiva de André, Carmen Diva; Afonso de André, Paulo; Rocha, Francisco Marcelo; Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento; Carvalho de Oliveira, Regiani; Singer, Julio M.

2014-08-01

Measurements of optical reflectance in passive filters impregnated with a reactive chemical solution may be transformed to ozone concentrations via a calibration curve and constitute a low cost alternative for environmental monitoring, mainly to estimate human exposure. Given the possibility of errors caused by exposure bias, it is common to consider sets of m filters exposed during a certain period to estimate the latent reflectance on n different sample occasions at a certain location. Mixed models with sample occasions as random effects are useful to analyze data obtained under such setups. The intra-class correlation coefficient of the mean of the m measurements is an indicator of the reliability of the latent reflectance estimates. Our objective is to determine m in order to obtain a pre-specified reliability of the estimates, taking possible outliers into account. To illustrate the procedure, we consider an experiment conducted at the Laboratory of Experimental Air Pollution, University of São Paulo, Brazil (LPAE/FMUSP), where sets of m = 3 filters were exposed during 7 days on n = 9 different occasions at a certain location. The results show that the reliability of the latent reflectance estimates for each occasion obtained under homoskedasticity is km = 0.74. A residual analysis suggests that the within-occasion variance for two of the occasions should be different from the others. A refined model with two within-occasion variance components was considered, yielding km = 0.56 for these occasions and km = 0.87 for the remaining ones. To guarantee that all estimates have a reliability of at least 80% we require measurements on m = 10 filters on each occasion.

Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

1978-01-01

A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

The European industry reliability data bank EIReDA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Aufort, P.; Arsenis, S.

1997-01-01

EIReDA and the computerized version EIReDA.PC are living data bases aiming to satisfy the requirements of risk, safety, and availability studies on industrial systems for documented estimates of reliability parameters of mechanical, electrical, and instrumentation components. The data updating procedure is based on Bayesian techniques implemented in a specific software: FIABAYES. Estimates are mostly based on the operational experience of EDF components, but an effort has been made to bring together estimates of equivalent components published in the open literature, and so establish generic tables of reliability parameters. (author)

Plant and control system reliability and risk model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niemelae, I.M.

1986-01-01

A new reliability modelling technique for control systems and plants is demonstrated. It is based on modified boolean algebra and it has been automated into an efficient computer code called RELVEC. The code is useful for getting an overall view of the reliability parameters or for an in-depth reliability analysis, which is essential in risk analysis, where the model must be capable of answering to specific questions like: 'What is the probability of this temperature limiter to provide a false alarm', or 'what is the probability of air pressure in this subsystem to drop below lower limit'. (orig./DG)

Systems reliability analysis: applications of the SPARCS System-Reliability Assessment Computer Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locks, M.O.

1978-01-01

SPARCS-2 (Simulation Program for Assessing the Reliabilities of Complex Systems, Version 2) is a PL/1 computer program for assessing (establishing interval estimates for) the reliability and the MTBF of a large and complex s-coherent system of any modular configuration. The system can consist of a complex logical assembly of independently failing attribute (binomial-Bernoulli) and time-to-failure (Poisson-exponential) components, without regard to their placement. Alternatively, it can be a configuration of independently failing modules, where each module has either or both attribute and time-to-failure components. SPARCS-2 also has an improved super modularity feature. Modules with minimal-cut unreliabiliy calculations can be mixed with those having minimal-path reliability calculations. All output has been standardized to system reliability or probability of success, regardless of the form in which the input data is presented, and whatever the configuration of modules or elements within modules

Tracking reliability for space cabin-borne equipment in development by Crow model.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J D; Jiao, S J; Sun, H L

2001-12-01

Objective. To study and track the reliability growth of manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment in the course of its development. Method. A new technique of reliability growth estimation and prediction, which is composed of the Crow model and test data conversion (TDC) method was used. Result. The estimation and prediction value of the reliability growth conformed to its expectations. Conclusion. The method could dynamically estimate and predict the reliability of the equipment by making full use of various test information in the course of its development. It offered not only a possibility of tracking the equipment reliability growth, but also the reference for quality control in manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment design and development process.

The reliability of nuclear power plant safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Susnik, J.

1978-01-01

A criterion was established concerning the protection that nuclear power plant (NPP) safety systems should afford. An estimate of the necessary or adequate reliability of the total complex of safety systems was derived. The acceptable unreliability of auxiliary safety systems is given, provided the reliability built into the specific NPP safety systems (ECCS, Containment) is to be fully utilized. A criterion for the acceptable unreliability of safety (sub)systems which occur in minimum cut sets having three or more components of the analysed fault tree was proposed. A set of input MTBF or MTTF values which fulfil all the set criteria and attain the appropriate overall reliability was derived. The sensitivity of results to input reliability data values was estimated. Numerical reliability evaluations were evaluated by the programs POTI, KOMBI and particularly URSULA, the last being based on Vesely's kinetic fault tree theory. (author)

Reliability of PWR type nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ribeiro, A.A.T.; Muniz, A.A.

1978-12-01

Results of the analysis of factors influencing the reliability of international nuclear power plants of the PWR type are presented. The reliability factor is estimated and the probability of its having lower values than a certain specified value is discussed. (Author) [pt

A Meta-Analysis of Reliability Coefficients in Second Language Research

Science.gov (United States)

Plonsky, Luke; Derrick, Deirdre J.

2016-01-01

Ensuring internal validity in quantitative research requires, among other conditions, reliable instrumentation. Unfortunately, however, second language (L2) researchers often fail to report and even more often fail to interpret reliability estimates beyond generic benchmarks for acceptability. As a means to guide interpretations of such estimates,…

A Field Research on Organizational Learning, Crisis Management Capability and Firm Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cemal Zehir

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Turkey has experienced a series of crises in 1994, 1999 and 2001, which induced remarkable damage in Turkish economy. Thus crisis management has been the main topic in Turkish agenda so many years. Besides crisis management, organizational learning also has been focused as an affective crisis management mean. Crisis preparedness process which is a part of crisis management is vital for any organization’s existence because the emergence of crises is inevitable. Therefore the crisis preparedness has been a topic of increasing importance for organizations seeking an effective way to fight against potential crises. In this context, this research aim to investigate the relationship among the crisis preparedness capability, organizational learning capability and organizational performance.  This survey is conducted on 400 managers of 114 firms operating in the Marmara region.  SPSS 15.0 statistics package program was used to analyze the data obtained from 400 questionnaires. Factor analysis, and reliability analysis have been executed to reveal the reliability of scale, and correlation and regression analyses have been executed to reveal the relationship among the crisis preparedness capability, organizational learning capability, and organizational performance.

A Field Research on Organizational Learning, Crisis Management Capability and Firm Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cemal Zehir

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Turkey has experienced a series of crises in 1994, 1999 and 2001, which induced remarkable damage in Turkish economy. Thus crisis management has been the main topic in Turkish agenda so many years. Besides crisis management, organizational learning also has been focused as an affective crisis management mean. Crisis preparedness process which is a part of crisis management is vital for any organization’s existence because the emergence of crises is inevitable. Therefore the crisis preparedness has been a topic of increasing importance for organizations seeking an effective way to fight against potential crises. In this context, this research aim to investigate the relationship among the crisis preparedness capability, organizational learning capability and organizational performance. This survey is conducted on 400 managers of 114 firms operating in the Marmara region.  SPSS 15.0 statistics package program was used to analyze the data obtained from 400 questionnaires. Factor analysis, and reliability analysis have been executed to reveal the reliability of scale, and correlation and regression analyses have been executed to reveal the relationship among the crisis preparedness capability, organizational learning capability, and organizational performance.

Reliability tasks from prediction to field use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guyot, Christian.

1975-01-01

This tutorial paper is part of a series intended to sensitive on reliability prolems. Reliability probabilistic concept, is an important parameter of availability. Reliability prediction is an estimation process for evaluating design progress. It is only by the application of a reliability program that reliability objectives can be attained through the different stages of work: conception, fabrication, field use. The user is mainly interested in operational reliability. Indication are given on the support and the treatment of data in the case of electronic equipment at C.E.A. Reliability engineering requires a special state of mind which must be formed and developed in a company in the same way as it may be done for example for safety [fr

Application of Fault Tree Analysis for Estimating Temperature Alarm Circuit Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, A.I.; El-Shanshoury, G.I.

2011-01-01

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of the most widely-used methods in system reliability analysis. It is a graphical technique that provides a systematic description of the combinations of possible occurrences in a system, which can result in an undesirable outcome. The presented paper deals with the application of FTA method in analyzing temperature alarm circuit. The criticality failure of this circuit comes from failing to alarm when temperature exceeds a certain limit. In order for a circuit to be safe, a detailed analysis of the faults causing circuit failure is performed by configuring fault tree diagram (qualitative analysis). Calculations of circuit quantitative reliability parameters such as Failure Rate (FR) and Mean Time between Failures (MTBF) are also done by using Relex 2009 computer program. Benefits of FTA are assessing system reliability or safety during operation, improving understanding of the system, and identifying root causes of equipment failures

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

PROCESS CAPABILITY ESTIMATION FOR NON-NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED DATA USING ROBUST METHODS - A COMPARATIVE STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yerriswamy Wooluru

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Process capability indices are very important process quality assessment tools in automotive industries. The common process capability indices (PCIs Cp, Cpk, Cpm are widely used in practice. The use of these PCIs based on the assumption that process is in control and its output is normally distributed. In practice, normality is not always fulfilled. Indices developed based on normality assumption are very sensitive to non- normal processes. When distribution of a product quality characteristic is non-normal, Cp and Cpk indices calculated using conventional methods often lead to erroneous interpretation of process capability. In the literature, various methods have been proposed for surrogate process capability indices under non normality but few literature sources offer their comprehensive evaluation and comparison of their ability to capture true capability in non-normal situation. In this paper, five methods have been reviewed and capability evaluation is carried out for the data pertaining to resistivity of silicon wafer. The final results revealed that the Burr based percentile method is better than Clements method. Modelling of non-normal data and Box-Cox transformation method using statistical software (Minitab 14 provides reasonably good result as they are very promising methods for non - normal and moderately skewed data (Skewness <= 1.5.

Statistical reliability assessment of UT round-robin test data for piping welds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.M.; Park, I.K.; Park, U.S.; Park, Y.W.; Kang, S.C.; Lee, J.H.

2004-01-01

Ultrasonic NDE is one of important technologies in the life-time maintenance of nuclear power plant. Ultrasonic inspection system is consisted of the operator, equipment and procedure. The reliability of ultrasonic inspection system is affected by its ability. The performance demonstration round robin was conducted to quantify the capability of ultrasonic inspection for in-service. Several teams employed procedures that met or exceeded with ASME sec. XI code requirements detected the piping of nuclear power plant with various cracks to evaluate the capability of detection and sizing. In this paper, the statistical reliability assessment of ultrasonic nondestructive inspection data using probability of detection (POD) is presented. The result of POD using logistic model was useful to the reliability assessment for the NDE hit or miss data. (orig.)

Reliability Based Optimization of Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1987-01-01

The optimization problem to design structural systems such that the reliability is satisfactory during the whole lifetime of the structure is considered in this paper. Some of the quantities modelling the loads and the strength of the structure are modelled as random variables. The reliability...... is estimated using first. order reliability methods ( FORM ). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement....... For these optimization problems it is described how a sensitivity analysis can be performed. Next, new optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability based optimization problem sequentially using quasi-analytical derivatives. Finally...

Accuracy of a Classical Test Theory-Based Procedure for Estimating the Reliability of a Multistage Test. Research Report. ETS RR-17-02

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sooyeon; Livingston, Samuel A.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this simulation study was to assess the accuracy of a classical test theory (CTT)-based procedure for estimating the alternate-forms reliability of scores on a multistage test (MST) having 3 stages. We generated item difficulty and discrimination parameters for 10 parallel, nonoverlapping forms of the complete 3-stage test and…

Stress-strength reliability for general bivariate distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alaa H. Abdel-Hamid

2016-10-01

Full Text Available An expression for the stress-strength reliability R=P(X1estimates of the parameters and reliability function R are obtained. In the non-parametric case, point and interval estimates of R are developed using Govindarajulu's asymptotic distribution-free method when X1 and X2 are dependent. An example is given when the population distribution is bivariate compound Weibull. Simulation is performed, based on different sample sizes to study the performance of estimates.

An investigation into the minimum accelerometry wear time for reliable estimates of habitual physical activity and definition of a standard measurement day in pre-school children.

Science.gov (United States)

Hislop, Jane; Law, James; Rush, Robert; Grainger, Andrew; Bulley, Cathy; Reilly, John J; Mercer, Tom

2014-11-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the number of hours and days of accelerometry data necessary to provide a reliable estimate of habitual physical activity in pre-school children. The impact of a weekend day on reliability estimates was also determined and standard measurement days were defined for weekend and weekdays.Accelerometry data were collected from 112 children (60 males, 52 females, mean (SD) 3.7 (0.7)yr) over 7 d. The Spearman-Brown Prophecy formula (S-B prophecy formula) was used to predict the number of days and hours of data required to achieve an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.7. The impact of including a weekend day was evaluated by comparing the reliability coefficient (r) for any 4 d of data with data for 4 d including one weekend day.Our observations indicate that 3 d of accelerometry monitoring, regardless of whether it includes a weekend day, for at least 7 h  d(-1) offers sufficient reliability to characterise total physical activity and sedentary behaviour of pre-school children. These findings offer an approach that addresses the underlying tension in epidemiologic surveillance studies between the need to maintain acceptable measurement rigour and retention of a representatively meaningful sample size.

Reliability of tumor volume estimation from MR images in patients with malignant glioma. Results from the American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ACRIN) 6662 Trial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ertl-Wagner, Birgit B.; Blume, Jeffrey D.; Herman, Benjamin; Peck, Donald; Udupa, Jayaram K.; Levering, Anthony; Schmalfuss, Ilona M.

2009-01-01

Reliable assessment of tumor growth in malignant glioma poses a common problem both clinically and when studying novel therapeutic agents. We aimed to evaluate two software-systems in their ability to estimate volume change of tumor and/or edema on magnetic resonance (MR) images of malignant gliomas. Twenty patients with malignant glioma were included from different sites. Serial post-operative MR images were assessed with two software systems representative of the two fundamental segmentation methods, single-image fuzzy analysis (3DVIEWNIX-TV) and multi-spectral-image analysis (Eigentool), and with a manual method by 16 independent readers (eight MR-certified technologists, four neuroradiology fellows, four neuroradiologists). Enhancing tumor volume and tumor volume plus edema were assessed independently by each reader. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), variance components, and prediction intervals were estimated. There were no significant differences in the average tumor volume change over time between the software systems (p > 0.05). Both software systems were much more reliable and yielded smaller prediction intervals than manual measurements. No significant differences were observed between the volume changes determined by fellows/neuroradiologists or technologists.Semi-automated software systems are reliable tools to serve as outcome parameters in clinical studies and the basis for therapeutic decision-making for malignant gliomas, whereas manual measurements are less reliable and should not be the basis for clinical or research outcome studies. (orig.)

MOV reliability evaluation and periodic verification scheduling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bunte, B.D.

1996-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to establish a periodic verification testing schedule based on the expected long term reliability of gate or globe motor operated valves (MOVs). The methodology in this position paper determines the nominal (best estimate) design margin for any MOV based on the best available information pertaining to the MOVs design requirements, design parameters, existing hardware design, and present setup. The uncertainty in this margin is then determined using statistical means. By comparing the nominal margin to the uncertainty, the reliability of the MOV is estimated. The methodology is appropriate for evaluating the reliability of MOVs in the GL 89-10 program. It may be used following periodic testing to evaluate and trend MOV performance and reliability. It may also be used to evaluate the impact of proposed modifications and maintenance activities such as packing adjustments. In addition, it may be used to assess the impact of new information of a generic nature which impacts safety related MOVs.

Evaluation of structural reliability using simulation methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baballëku Markel

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Eurocode describes the 'index of reliability' as a measure of structural reliability, related to the 'probability of failure'. This paper is focused on the assessment of this index for a reinforced concrete bridge pier. It is rare to explicitly use reliability concepts for design of structures, but the problems of structural engineering are better known through them. Some of the main methods for the estimation of the probability of failure are the exact analytical integration, numerical integration, approximate analytical methods and simulation methods. Monte Carlo Simulation is used in this paper, because it offers a very good tool for the estimation of probability in multivariate functions. Complicated probability and statistics problems are solved through computer aided simulations of a large number of tests. The procedures of structural reliability assessment for the bridge pier and the comparison with the partial factor method of the Eurocodes have been demonstrated in this paper.

MOV reliability evaluation and periodic verification scheduling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunte, B.D.

1996-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to establish a periodic verification testing schedule based on the expected long term reliability of gate or globe motor operated valves (MOVs). The methodology in this position paper determines the nominal (best estimate) design margin for any MOV based on the best available information pertaining to the MOVs design requirements, design parameters, existing hardware design, and present setup. The uncertainty in this margin is then determined using statistical means. By comparing the nominal margin to the uncertainty, the reliability of the MOV is estimated. The methodology is appropriate for evaluating the reliability of MOVs in the GL 89-10 program. It may be used following periodic testing to evaluate and trend MOV performance and reliability. It may also be used to evaluate the impact of proposed modifications and maintenance activities such as packing adjustments. In addition, it may be used to assess the impact of new information of a generic nature which impacts safety related MOVs

Anti-deception: reliable EEG-based biometrics with real-time capability from the neural response of face rapid serial visual presentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qunjian; Yan, Bin; Zeng, Ying; Zhang, Chi; Tong, Li

2018-05-03

The electroencephalogram (EEG) signal represents a subject's specific brain activity patterns and is considered as an ideal biometric given its superior invisibility, non-clonality, and non-coercion. In order to enhance its applicability in identity authentication, a novel EEG-based identity authentication method is proposed based on self- or non-self-face rapid serial visual presentation. In contrast to previous studies that extracted EEG features from rest state or motor imagery, the designed paradigm could obtain a distinct and stable biometric trait with a lower time cost. Channel selection was applied to select specific channels for each user to enhance system portability and improve discriminability between users and imposters. Two different imposter scenarios were designed to test system security, which demonstrate the capability of anti-deception. Fifteen users and thirty imposters participated in the experiment. The mean authentication accuracy values for the two scenarios were 91.31 and 91.61%, with 6 s time cost, which illustrated the precision and real-time capability of the system. Furthermore, in order to estimate the repeatability and stability of our paradigm, another data acquisition session is conducted for each user. Using the classification models generated from the previous sessions, a mean false rejected rate of 7.27% has been achieved, which demonstrates the robustness of our paradigm. Experimental results reveal that the proposed paradigm and methods are effective for EEG-based identity authentication.

Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fariborz M. Tehrani

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimate, including modeling errors and inherent variability. Sample projects are highway maintenance projects with a similar scope of the work, size, and schedule. Statistical analysis of engineering estimates and bids examines the adaptability of statistical models for sample projects. Further, the variation of engineering cost estimates from inception to implementation has been presented and discussed for selected projects. Moreover, the applicability of extreme values theory is assessed for available data. The results indicate that the performance of engineer’s estimate is best evaluated based on trimmed average of bids, excluding discordant bids.

Reliability of the emergency AC power system at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Battle, R.E.; Campbell, D.J.; Baranowsky, P.W.

1983-01-01

The reliability of the emergency ac power systems typical of most nuclear power plants was estimated, and the cost and increase in reliability for several improvements were estimated. Fault trees were constructed based on a detailed design review of the emergency ac power systems of 18 nuclear plants. The failure probabilities used in the fault trees were calculated from extensive historical data collected from Licensee Event Reports (LERs) and from operating experience information obtained from nuclear plant licensees. No one or two improvements can be made at all plants to significantly increase the industry-average emergency ac power system reliability; rather the most beneficial improvements are varied and plant specific. Improvements in reliability and the associated costs are estimated using plant specific designs and failure probabilities

GPS/DR Error Estimation for Autonomous Vehicle Localization.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Byung-Hyun; Song, Jong-Hwa; Im, Jun-Hyuck; Im, Sung-Hyuck; Heo, Moon-Beom; Jee, Gyu-In

2015-08-21

Autonomous vehicles require highly reliable navigation capabilities. For example, a lane-following method cannot be applied in an intersection without lanes, and since typical lane detection is performed using a straight-line model, errors can occur when the lateral distance is estimated in curved sections due to a model mismatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a localization method that uses GPS/DR error estimation based on a lane detection method with curved lane models, stop line detection, and curve matching in order to improve the performance during waypoint following procedures. The advantage of using the proposed method is that position information can be provided for autonomous driving through intersections, in sections with sharp curves, and in curved sections following a straight section. The proposed method was applied in autonomous vehicles at an experimental site to evaluate its performance, and the results indicate that the positioning achieved accuracy at the sub-meter level.

Human error data collection as a precursor to the development of a human reliability assessment capability in air traffic management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirwan, Barry; Gibson, W. Huw; Hickling, Brian

2008-01-01

Quantified risk and safety assessments are now required for safety cases for European air traffic management (ATM) services. Since ATM is highly human-dependent for its safety, this suggests a need for formal human reliability assessment (HRA), as carried out in other industries such as nuclear power. Since the fundamental aspect of HRA is human error data, in the form of human error probabilities (HEPs), it was decided to take a first step towards development of an ATM HRA approach by deriving some HEPs in an ATM context. This paper reports a study, which collected HEPs via analysing the results of a real-time simulation involving air traffic controllers (ATCOs) and pilots, with a focus on communication errors. This study did indeed derive HEPs that were found to be concordant with other known communication human error data. This is a first step, and shows promise for HRA in ATM, since HEPs have been derived which could be used in safety assessments, although these HEPs are for only one (albeit critical) aspect of ATCOs' tasks (communications). The paper discusses options and potential ways forward for the development of a full HRA capability in ATM

Development of a reliable estimation procedure of radioactivity inventory in a BWR plant due to neutron irradiation for decommissioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanaka Ken-ichi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Reliable information of radioactivity inventory resulted from the radiological characterization is important in order to plan decommissioning planning and is also crucial in order to promote decommissioning in effectiveness and in safe. The information is referred to by planning of decommissioning strategy and by an application to regulator. Reliable information of radioactivity inventory can be used to optimize the decommissioning processes. In order to perform the radiological characterization reliably, we improved a procedure of an evaluation of neutron-activated materials for a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR. Neutron-activated materials are calculated with calculation codes and their validity should be verified with measurements. The evaluation of neutron-activated materials can be divided into two processes. One is a distribution calculation of neutron-flux. Another is an activation calculation of materials. The distribution calculation of neutron-flux is performed with neutron transport calculation codes with appropriate cross section library to simulate neutron transport phenomena well. Using the distribution of neutron-flux, we perform distribution calculations of radioactivity concentration. We also estimate a time dependent distribution of radioactivity classification and a radioactive-waste classification. The information obtained from the evaluation is utilized by other tasks in the preparatory tasks to make the decommissioning plan and the activity safe and rational.

Development of a reliable estimation procedure of radioactivity inventory in a BWR plant due to neutron irradiation for decommissioning

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Ken-ichi; Ueno, Jun

2017-09-01

Reliable information of radioactivity inventory resulted from the radiological characterization is important in order to plan decommissioning planning and is also crucial in order to promote decommissioning in effectiveness and in safe. The information is referred to by planning of decommissioning strategy and by an application to regulator. Reliable information of radioactivity inventory can be used to optimize the decommissioning processes. In order to perform the radiological characterization reliably, we improved a procedure of an evaluation of neutron-activated materials for a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). Neutron-activated materials are calculated with calculation codes and their validity should be verified with measurements. The evaluation of neutron-activated materials can be divided into two processes. One is a distribution calculation of neutron-flux. Another is an activation calculation of materials. The distribution calculation of neutron-flux is performed with neutron transport calculation codes with appropriate cross section library to simulate neutron transport phenomena well. Using the distribution of neutron-flux, we perform distribution calculations of radioactivity concentration. We also estimate a time dependent distribution of radioactivity classification and a radioactive-waste classification. The information obtained from the evaluation is utilized by other tasks in the preparatory tasks to make the decommissioning plan and the activity safe and rational.

Distributed Dynamic State Estimator, Generator Parameter Estimation and Stability Monitoring Demonstration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meliopoulos, Sakis [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cokkinides, George [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Fardanesh, Bruce [New York Power Authority, NY (United States); Hedrington, Clinton [U.S. Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority (WAPA), St. Croix (U.S. Virgin Islands)

2013-12-31

This is the final report for this project that was performed in the period: October1, 2009 to June 30, 2013. In this project, a fully distributed high-fidelity dynamic state estimator (DSE) that continuously tracks the real time dynamic model of a wide area system with update rates better than 60 times per second is achieved. The proposed technology is based on GPS-synchronized measurements but also utilizes data from all available Intelligent Electronic Devices in the system (numerical relays, digital fault recorders, digital meters, etc.). The distributed state estimator provides the real time model of the system not only the voltage phasors. The proposed system provides the infrastructure for a variety of applications and two very important applications (a) a high fidelity generating unit parameters estimation and (b) an energy function based transient stability monitoring of a wide area electric power system with predictive capability. Also the dynamic distributed state estimation results are stored (the storage scheme includes data and coincidental model) enabling an automatic reconstruction and “play back” of a system wide disturbance. This approach enables complete play back capability with fidelity equal to that of real time with the advantage of “playing back” at a user selected speed. The proposed technologies were developed and tested in the lab during the first 18 months of the project and then demonstrated on two actual systems, the USVI Water and Power Administration system and the New York Power Authority’s Blenheim-Gilboa pumped hydro plant in the last 18 months of the project. The four main thrusts of this project, mentioned above, are extremely important to the industry. The DSE with the achieved update rates (more than 60 times per second) provides a superior solution to the “grid visibility” question. The generator parameter identification method fills an important and practical need of the industry. The “energy function” based

Development of the ETOC: a European test of olfactory capabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thomas-Danguin, T.; Rouby, C.; Sicard, G.; Vigouroux, M.; Farget, V.; Johanson, A.; Bengtzon, A.; Hall, G.; Ormel, W.; Graaf, de C.; Rousseau, F.; Dumont, J.P.

2003-01-01

A number of smell tests designed to evaluate human olfactory capabilities have been published, but none have been validated cross-culturally. The aim of this study was therefore to develop a reliable and quick olfactory test that could be used to evaluate efficiently the olfactory abilities of a

Feedback reliability calculation for an iterative block decision feedback equalizer

OpenAIRE

Huang, G; Nix, AR; Armour, SMD

2009-01-01

A new class of iterative block decision feedback equalizer (IB-DFE) was pioneered by Chan and Benvenuto. Unlike the conventional DFE, the IB-DFE is optimized according to the reliability of the feedback (FB) symbols. Since the use of the training sequence (TS) for feedback reliability (FBR) estimation lowers the bandwidth efficiency, FBR estimation without the need for additional TS is of considerable interest. However, prior FBR estimation is limited in the literature to uncoded M-ary phases...

Reliability of using nondestructive tests to estimate compressive strength of building stones and bricks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Abd Elhakam Aliabdo

2012-09-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the relationships between Schmidt hardness rebound number (RN and ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV versus compressive strength (fc of stones and bricks. Four types of rocks (marble, pink lime stone, white lime stone and basalt and two types of burned bricks and lime-sand bricks were studied. Linear and non-linear models were proposed. High correlations were found between RN and UPV versus compressive strength. Validation of proposed models was assessed using other specimens for each material. Linear models for each material showed good correlations than non-linear models. General model between RN and compressive strength of tested stones and bricks showed a high correlation with regression coefficient R2 value of 0.94. Estimation of compressive strength for the studied stones and bricks using their rebound number and ultrasonic pulse velocity in a combined method was generally more reliable than using rebound number or ultrasonic pulse velocity only.

The Assumption of a Reliable Instrument and Other Pitfalls to Avoid When Considering the Reliability of Data

Science.gov (United States)

Nimon, Kim; Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Henson, Robin K.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this article is to help researchers avoid common pitfalls associated with reliability including incorrectly assuming that (a) measurement error always attenuates observed score correlations, (b) different sources of measurement error originate from the same source, and (c) reliability is a function of instrumentation. To accomplish our purpose, we first describe what reliability is and why researchers should care about it with focus on its impact on effect sizes. Second, we review how reliability is assessed with comment on the consequences of cumulative measurement error. Third, we consider how researchers can use reliability generalization as a prescriptive method when designing their research studies to form hypotheses about whether or not reliability estimates will be acceptable given their sample and testing conditions. Finally, we discuss options that researchers may consider when faced with analyzing unreliable data. PMID:22518107

Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávio Chaimowicz

Full Text Available The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries' populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil.We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815. Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%.The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations.

Bayesian approach in the power electric systems study of reliability ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Reliability - Power System - Bayes Theorem - Weibull Model - Probability. ... ensure a series of estimated parameter (failure rate, mean time to failure, function .... only on random variable r.v. describing the operating conditions: ..... Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time, Reliability Engineering.

Reliability analysis of stiff versus flexible piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, S.C.

1985-01-01

The overall objective of this research project is to develop a technical basis for flexible piping designs which will improve piping reliability and minimize the use of pipe supports, snubbers, and pipe whip restraints. The current study was conducted to establish the necessary groundwork based on the piping reliability analysis. A confirmatory piping reliability assessment indicated that removing rigid supports and snubbers tends to either improve or affect very little the piping reliability. The authors then investigated a couple of changes to be implemented in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.61 and RG 1.122 aimed at more flexible piping design. They concluded that these changes substantially reduce calculated piping responses and allow piping redesigns with significant reduction in number of supports and snubbers without violating ASME code requirements. Furthermore, the more flexible piping redesigns are capable of exhibiting reliability levels equal to or higher than the original stiffer design. An investigation of the malfunction of pipe whip restraints confirmed that the malfunction introduced higher thermal stresses and tended to reduce the overall piping reliability. Finally, support and component reliabilities were evaluated based on available fragility data. Results indicated that the support reliability usually exhibits a moderate decrease as the piping flexibility increases. Most on-line pumps and valves showed an insignificant reduction in reliability for a more flexible piping design

Reliability assessment for metallized film pulse capacitors with accelerated degradation test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Jianyin; Liu Fang; Xi Wenjun; He Shaobo; Wei Xiaofeng

2011-01-01

The high energy density self-healing metallized film pulse capacitor has been applied to all kinds of laser facilities for their power conditioning systems, whose reliability is straightforward affected by the reliability level of capacitors. Reliability analysis of highly reliable devices, such as metallized film capacitors, is a challenge due to cost and time restriction. Accelerated degradation test provides a way to predict its life cost and time effectively. A model and analyses for accelerated degradation data of metallized film capacitors are described. Also described is a method for estimating the distribution of failure time. The estimation values of the unknown parameters in this model are 9.066 9 x 10 -8 and 0.022 1. Both the failure probability density function (PDF) and the cumulative distribution function (CDF) can be presented by this degradation failure model. Based on these estimation values and the PDF/CDF, the reliability model of the metallized film capacitors is obtained. According to the reliability model, the probability of the capacitors surviving to 20 000 shot is 0.972 4. (authors)

Approximate estimation of system reliability via fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dutuit, Y.; Rauzy, A.

2005-01-01

In this article, we show how fault tree analysis, carried out by means of binary decision diagrams (BDD), is able to approximate reliability of systems made of independent repairable components with a good accuracy and a good efficiency. We consider four algorithms: the Murchland lower bound, the Barlow-Proschan lower bound, the Vesely full approximation and the Vesely asymptotic approximation. For each of these algorithms, we consider an implementation based on the classical minimal cut sets/rare events approach and another one relying on the BDD technology. We present numerical results obtained with both approaches on various examples

BURAR: Detection and signal processing capabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghica, Daniela; Radulian, Mircea; Popa, Mihaela

2004-01-01

Since July 2002, a new seismic monitoring station, the Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR), has been installed in the northern part of Romania, in a joint effort of the Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA, and the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP), Romania. The array consists of 10 seismic sensors (9 short-period and one broad band) located in boreholes and distributed in a 5 x 5 km area. At present, the seismic data are continuously recorded by BURAR and transmitted in real-time to the Romanian National Data Centre (ROM N DC), at Bucharest and to the National Data Center of USA, in Florida. The statistical analysis for the seismic information gathered at ROM N DC by the BURAR in the August 2002 - December 2003 time interval points out a much better efficiency of the BURAR system in detecting teleseismic events and local events occurred in the N-NE part of Romanian territory, in comparison with the actual Romanian Telemetered Network. Furthermore, the BURAR monitoring system has proven to be an important source of reliable data for NIEP efforts in elaborating of the seismic bulletins. Signal processing capability of the system provides useful information in order to improve the location of the local seismic events, using the array beamforming facility. This method increases significantly the signal-to-noise ratio of the seismic signal by summing up the coherent signals from the array components. In this way, eventual source nucleation phases can be detected. At the same time, using the slowness and backazimuth estimations by f-k analysis, locations for the seismic events can be performed based only on the information recorded by the BURAR array, acting like a single seismic station recording system. Additionally, f-k analysis techniques are useful in the local site effects estimation and interpretation of the local geological structure. (authors)

An application of the fault tree analysis for the power system reliability estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.

2007-01-01

The power system is a complex system with its main function to produce, transfer and provide consumers with electrical energy. Combinations of failures of components in the system can result in a failure of power delivery to certain load points and in some cases in a full blackout of power system. The power system reliability directly affects safe and reliable operation of nuclear power plants because the loss of offsite power is a significant contributor to the core damage frequency in probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants. The method, which is based on the integration of the fault tree analysis with the analysis of the power flows in the power system, was developed and implemented for power system reliability assessment. The main contributors to the power system reliability are identified, both quantitatively and qualitatively. (author)

Designing and Validating a Model for Measuring Sustainability of Overall Innovation Capability of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohd Nizam Ab Rahman

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The business environment is currently characterized by intensified competition at both the national and firm levels. Many studies have shown that innovation positively affect firms in enhancing their competitiveness. Innovation is a dynamic process that requires a continuous, evolving, and mastered management. Evaluating the sustainability of overall innovation capability of a business is a major means of determining how well this firm effectively and efficiently manages its innovation process. A psychometrically valid scale of evaluating the sustainability of overall innovation capability of a firm is still insufficient in the current innovation literature. Thus, this study developed a reliable and valid scale of measuring the sustainability of overall innovation capability construct. The unidimensionality, reliability, and several validity components of the developed scale were tested using the data collected from 175 small and medium-sized enterprises in Iran. A series of systematic statistical analyses were performed. Results of the reliability measures, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, and several components of validity tests strongly supported an eight-dimensional (8D scale of measuring the sustainability of overall innovation capability construct. The dimensions of the scale were strategic management, supportive culture and structure, resource allocation, communication and networking, knowledge and technology management, idea management, project development, and commercialization capabilities.

Lifetime Reliability Assessment of Concrete Slab Bridges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thoft-Christensen, Palle

A procedure for lifetime assesment of the reliability of short concrete slab bridges is presented in the paper. Corrosion of the reinforcement is the deterioration mechanism used for estimating the reliability profiles for such bridges. The importance of using sensitivity measures is stressed....... Finally the produce is illustrated on 6 existing UK bridges....

Internal Consistency, Retest Reliability, and their Implications For Personality Scale Validity

Science.gov (United States)

McCrae, Robert R.; Kurtz, John E.; Yamagata, Shinji; Terracciano, Antonio

2010-01-01

We examined data (N = 34,108) on the differential reliability and validity of facet scales from the NEO Inventories. We evaluated the extent to which (a) psychometric properties of facet scales are generalizable across ages, cultures, and methods of measurement; and (b) validity criteria are associated with different forms of reliability. Composite estimates of facet scale stability, heritability, and cross-observer validity were broadly generalizable. Two estimates of retest reliability were independent predictors of the three validity criteria; none of three estimates of internal consistency was. Available evidence suggests the same pattern of results for other personality inventories. Internal consistency of scales can be useful as a check on data quality, but appears to be of limited utility for evaluating the potential validity of developed scales, and it should not be used as a substitute for retest reliability. Further research on the nature and determinants of retest reliability is needed. PMID:20435807

A general graphical user interface for automatic reliability modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Liceaga, Carlos A.; Siewiorek, Daniel P.

1991-01-01

Reported here is a general Graphical User Interface (GUI) for automatic reliability modeling of Processor Memory Switch (PMS) structures using a Markov model. This GUI is based on a hierarchy of windows. One window has graphical editing capabilities for specifying the system's communication structure, hierarchy, reconfiguration capabilities, and requirements. Other windows have field texts, popup menus, and buttons for specifying parameters and selecting actions. An example application of the GUI is given.

Delivering high performance BWR fuel reliably

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schardt, J.F.

1998-01-01

Utilities are under intense pressure to reduce their production costs in order to compete in the increasingly deregulated marketplace. They need fuel, which can deliver high performance to meet demanding operating strategies. GE's latest BWR fuel design, GE14, provides that high performance capability. GE's product introduction process assures that this performance will be delivered reliably, with little risk to the utility. (author)

Determinants of the reliability of ultrasound tomography sound speed estimates as a surrogate for volumetric breast density

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khodr, Zeina G.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Gierach, Gretchen L., E-mail: GierachG@mail.nih.gov [Department of Health and Human Services, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive MSC 9774, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States); Sak, Mark A.; Bey-Knight, Lisa [Karmanos Cancer Institute, Wayne State University, 4100 John R, Detroit, Michigan 48201 (United States); Duric, Nebojsa; Littrup, Peter [Karmanos Cancer Institute, Wayne State University, 4100 John R, Detroit, Michigan 48201 and Delphinus Medical Technologies, 46701 Commerce Center Drive, Plymouth, Michigan 48170 (United States); Ali, Haythem; Vallieres, Patricia [Henry Ford Health System, 2799 W Grand Boulevard, Detroit, Michigan 48202 (United States); Sherman, Mark E. [Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, 9609 Medical Center Drive MSC 9774, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States)

2015-10-15

Purpose: High breast density, as measured by mammography, is associated with increased breast cancer risk, but standard methods of assessment have limitations including 2D representation of breast tissue, distortion due to breast compression, and use of ionizing radiation. Ultrasound tomography (UST) is a novel imaging method that averts these limitations and uses sound speed measures rather than x-ray imaging to estimate breast density. The authors evaluated the reproducibility of measures of speed of sound and changes in this parameter using UST. Methods: One experienced and five newly trained raters measured sound speed in serial UST scans for 22 women (two scans per person) to assess inter-rater reliability. Intrarater reliability was assessed for four raters. A random effects model was used to calculate the percent variation in sound speed and change in sound speed attributable to subject, scan, rater, and repeat reads. The authors estimated the intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for these measures based on data from the authors’ experienced rater. Results: Median (range) time between baseline and follow-up UST scans was five (1–13) months. Contributions of factors to sound speed variance were differences between subjects (86.0%), baseline versus follow-up scans (7.5%), inter-rater evaluations (1.1%), and intrarater reproducibility (∼0%). When evaluating change in sound speed between scans, 2.7% and ∼0% of variation were attributed to inter- and intrarater variation, respectively. For the experienced rater’s repeat reads, agreement for sound speed was excellent (ICC = 93.4%) and for change in sound speed substantial (ICC = 70.4%), indicating very good reproducibility of these measures. Conclusions: UST provided highly reproducible sound speed measurements, which reflect breast density, suggesting that UST has utility in sensitively assessing change in density.

Psychometrics Matter in Health Behavior: A Long-term Reliability Generalization Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pickett, Andrew C; Valdez, Danny; Barry, Adam E

2017-09-01

Despite numerous calls for increased understanding and reporting of reliability estimates, social science research, including the field of health behavior, has been slow to respond and adopt such practices. Therefore, we offer a brief overview of reliability and common reporting errors; we then perform analyses to examine and demonstrate the variability of reliability estimates by sample and over time. Using meta-analytic reliability generalization, we examined the variability of coefficient alpha scores for a well-designed, consistent, nationwide health study, covering a span of nearly 40 years. For each year and sample, reliability varied. Furthermore, reliability was predicted by a sample characteristic that differed among age groups within each administration. We demonstrated that reliability is influenced by the methods and individuals from which a given sample is drawn. Our work echoes previous calls that psychometric properties, particularly reliability of scores, are important and must be considered and reported before drawing statistical conclusions.

Human decomposition and the reliability of a 'Universal' model for post mortem interval estimations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cockle, Diane L; Bell, Lynne S

2015-08-01

Human decomposition is a complex biological process driven by an array of variables which are not clearly understood. The medico-legal community have long been searching for a reliable method to establish the post-mortem interval (PMI) for those whose deaths have either been hidden, or gone un-noticed. To date, attempts to develop a PMI estimation method based on the state of the body either at the scene or at autopsy have been unsuccessful. One recent study has proposed that two simple formulae, based on the level of decomposition humidity and temperature, could be used to accurately calculate the PMI for bodies outside, on or under the surface worldwide. This study attempted to validate 'Formula I' [1] (for bodies on the surface) using 42 Canadian cases with known PMIs. The results indicated that bodies exposed to warm temperatures consistently overestimated the known PMI by a large and inconsistent margin for Formula I estimations. And for bodies exposed to cold and freezing temperatures (less than 4°C), then the PMI was dramatically under estimated. The ability of 'Formulae II' to estimate the PMI for buried bodies was also examined using a set of 22 known Canadian burial cases. As these cases used in this study are retrospective, some of the data needed for Formula II was not available. The 4.6 value used in Formula II to represent the standard ratio of time that burial decelerates the rate of decomposition was examined. The average time taken to achieve each stage of decomposition both on, and under the surface was compared for the 118 known cases. It was found that the rate of decomposition was not consistent throughout all stages of decomposition. The rates of autolysis above and below the ground were equivalent with the buried cases staying in a state of putrefaction for a prolonged period of time. It is suggested that differences in temperature extremes and humidity levels between geographic regions may make it impractical to apply formulas developed in

Heavy Lift Launch Capability with a New Hydrocarbon Engine

Science.gov (United States)

Threet, Grady E., Jr.; Holt, James B.; Philips, Alan D.; Garcia, Jessica A.

2011-01-01

The Advanced Concepts Office at NASA's George C. Marshall Space Flight Center was tasked to define the thrust requirement of a new liquid oxygen rich staged combustion cycle hydrocarbon engine that could be utilized in a launch vehicle to meet NASA s future heavy lift needs. Launch vehicle concepts were sized using this engine for different heavy lift payload classes. Engine out capabilities for one of the heavy lift configurations were also analyzed for increased reliability that may be desired for high value payloads or crewed missions. The applicability for this engine in vehicle concepts to meet military and commercial class payloads comparable to current ELV capability was also evaluated.

Measures of differences in reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doksum, K.A.

1975-01-01

Measures of differences in reliability of two systems are considered in the scale model, location-scale model, and a nonparametric model. In each model, estimates and confidence intervals are given and some of their properties discussed

Development of reliable pavement models.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-01

The current report proposes a framework for estimating the reliability of a given pavement structure as analyzed by : the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). The methodology proposes using a previously fit : response surface, in plac...

Wind turbine reliability : a database and analysis approach.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Linsday, James (ARES Corporation); Briand, Daniel; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Benjamin, Allan S. (ARES Corporation)

2008-02-01

The US wind Industry has experienced remarkable growth since the turn of the century. At the same time, the physical size and electrical generation capabilities of wind turbines has also experienced remarkable growth. As the market continues to expand, and as wind generation continues to gain a significant share of the generation portfolio, the reliability of wind turbine technology becomes increasingly important. This report addresses how operations and maintenance costs are related to unreliability - that is the failures experienced by systems and components. Reliability tools are demonstrated, data needed to understand and catalog failure events is described, and practical wind turbine reliability models are illustrated, including preliminary results. This report also presents a continuing process of how to proceed with controlling industry requirements, needs, and expectations related to Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety. A simply stated goal of this process is to better understand and to improve the operable reliability of wind turbine installations.

Validity and Reliability of Assessing Body Composition Using a Mobile Application.

Science.gov (United States)

Macdonald, Elizabeth Z; Vehrs, Pat R; Fellingham, Gilbert W; Eggett, Dennis; George, James D; Hager, Ronald

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the validity and reliability of the LeanScreen (LS) mobile application that estimates percent body fat (%BF) using estimates of circumferences from photographs. The %BF of 148 weight-stable adults was estimated once using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Each of two administrators assessed the %BF of each subject twice using the LS app and manually measured circumferences. A mixed-model ANOVA and Bland-Altman analyses were used to compare the estimates of %BF obtained from each method. Interrater and intrarater reliabilities values were determined using multiple measurements taken by each of the two administrators. The LS app and manually measured circumferences significantly underestimated (P < 0.05) the %BF determined using DXA by an average of -3.26 and -4.82 %BF, respectively. The LS app (6.99 %BF) and manually measured circumferences (6.76 %BF) had large limits of agreement. All interrater and intrarater reliability coefficients of estimates of %BF using the LS app and manually measured circumferences exceeded 0.99. The estimates of %BF from manually measured circumferences and the LS app were highly reliable. However, these field measures are not currently recommended for the assessment of body composition because of significant bias and large limits of agreements.

Time-dependent reliability sensitivity analysis of motion mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Pengfei; Song, Jingwen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Yue, Zhufeng

2016-01-01

Reliability sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the source of structure/mechanism failure, and quantifying the effects of each random source or their distribution parameters on failure probability or reliability. In this paper, the time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity (PRS) analysis as well as the global reliability sensitivity (GRS) analysis is introduced for the motion mechanisms. The PRS indices are defined as the partial derivatives of the time-dependent reliability w.r.t. the distribution parameters of each random input variable, and they quantify the effect of the small change of each distribution parameter on the time-dependent reliability. The GRS indices are defined for quantifying the individual, interaction and total contributions of the uncertainty in each random input variable to the time-dependent reliability. The envelope function method combined with the first order approximation of the motion error function is introduced for efficiently estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices. Both the time-dependent PRS and GRS analysis techniques can be especially useful for reliability-based design. This significance of the proposed methods as well as the effectiveness of the envelope function method for estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices are demonstrated with a four-bar mechanism and a car rack-and-pinion steering linkage. - Highlights: • Time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity analysis is presented. • Time-dependent global reliability sensitivity analysis is presented for mechanisms. • The proposed method is especially useful for enhancing the kinematic reliability. • An envelope method is introduced for efficiently implementing the proposed methods. • The proposed method is demonstrated by two real planar mechanisms.

Integration of Active and Passive Safety Technologies--A Method to Study and Estimate Field Capability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Jingwen; Flannagan, Carol A; Bao, Shan; McCoy, Robert W; Siasoco, Kevin M; Barbat, Saeed

2015-11-01

The objective of this study is to develop a method that uses a combination of field data analysis, naturalistic driving data analysis, and computational simulations to explore the potential injury reduction capabilities of integrating passive and active safety systems in frontal impact conditions. For the purposes of this study, the active safety system is actually a driver assist (DA) feature that has the potential to reduce delta-V prior to a crash, in frontal or other crash scenarios. A field data analysis was first conducted to estimate the delta-V distribution change based on an assumption of 20% crash avoidance resulting from a pre-crash braking DA feature. Analysis of changes in driver head location during 470 hard braking events in a naturalistic driving study found that drivers' head positions were mostly in the center position before the braking onset, while the percentage of time drivers leaning forward or backward increased significantly after the braking onset. Parametric studies with a total of 4800 MADYMO simulations showed that both delta-V and occupant pre-crash posture had pronounced effects on occupant injury risks and on the optimal restraint designs. By combining the results for the delta-V and head position distribution changes, a weighted average of injury risk reduction of 17% and 48% was predicted by the 50th percentile Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) model and human body model, respectively, with the assumption that the restraint system can adapt to the specific delta-V and pre-crash posture. This study demonstrated the potential for further reducing occupant injury risk in frontal crashes by the integration of a passive safety system with a DA feature. Future analyses considering more vehicle models, various crash conditions, and variations of occupant characteristics, such as age, gender, weight, and height, are necessary to further investigate the potential capability of integrating passive and DA or active safety systems.

Reliability of the emergency ac-power system at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Battle, R.E.; Campbell, D.J.; Baranowsky, P.W.

1982-01-01

The reliability of the emergency ac-power systems typical of several nuclear power plants was estimated, the costs of several possible improvements was estimated. Fault trees were constructed based on a detailed design review of the emergency ac-power systems of 18 nuclear plants. The failure probabilities used in the fault trees were calculated from extensive historical data collected from Licensee Event Reports (LERs) and from operating experience information obtained from nuclear plant licensees. It was found that there are not one or two improvements that can be made at all plants to significantly increase the industry-average emergency ac-power-system reliability, but the improvements are varied and plant-specific. Estimates of the improvements in reliability and the associated cost are estimated using plant-specific designs and failure probabilities

Prediction of Software Reliability using Bio Inspired Soft Computing Techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Diwaker, Chander; Tomar, Pradeep; Poonia, Ramesh C; Singh, Vijander

2018-04-10

A lot of models have been made for predicting software reliability. The reliability models are restricted to using particular types of methodologies and restricted number of parameters. There are a number of techniques and methodologies that may be used for reliability prediction. There is need to focus on parameters consideration while estimating reliability. The reliability of a system may increase or decreases depending on the selection of different parameters used. Thus there is need to identify factors that heavily affecting the reliability of the system. In present days, reusability is mostly used in the various area of research. Reusability is the basis of Component-Based System (CBS). The cost, time and human skill can be saved using Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) concepts. CBSE metrics may be used to assess those techniques which are more suitable for estimating system reliability. Soft computing is used for small as well as large-scale problems where it is difficult to find accurate results due to uncertainty or randomness. Several possibilities are available to apply soft computing techniques in medicine related problems. Clinical science of medicine using fuzzy-logic, neural network methodology significantly while basic science of medicine using neural-networks-genetic algorithm most frequently and preferably. There is unavoidable interest shown by medical scientists to use the various soft computing methodologies in genetics, physiology, radiology, cardiology and neurology discipline. CBSE boost users to reuse the past and existing software for making new products to provide quality with a saving of time, memory space, and money. This paper focused on assessment of commonly used soft computing technique like Genetic Algorithm (GA), Neural-Network (NN), Fuzzy Logic, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). This paper presents working of soft computing

Estimating passenger numbers in trains using existing weighing capabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Bo Friis; Frølich, Laura; Nielsen, Otto Anker

2013-01-01

trains to control braking. This technique makes passenger counting cheaper and ensures a complete sample. The paper compares numbers estimated by this technique with manual counts and counts from an infrared system in trains in urban Copenhagen. It shows that the weighing system provides more accurate......Knowing passenger numbers is important for the planning and operation of the urban rail systems. Manual and electronic counting systems (typically infrared or video) are expensive and therefore entail small sample sizes. They usually count boarding and alighting passengers, which means that errors...... in estimates of total numbers of passengers propagate along train runs. Counting errors in manual and electronic counting systems are typically flow-dependent, making uncertainty a function of volume. This paper presents a new counting technique that exploits the weighing systems installed in most modern...

Reliability analysis applied to structural tests

Science.gov (United States)

Diamond, P.; Payne, A. O.

1972-01-01

The application of reliability theory to predict, from structural fatigue test data, the risk of failure of a structure under service conditions because its load-carrying capability is progressively reduced by the extension of a fatigue crack, is considered. The procedure is applicable to both safe-life and fail-safe structures and, for a prescribed safety level, it will enable an inspection procedure to be planned or, if inspection is not feasible, it will evaluate the life to replacement. The theory has been further developed to cope with the case of structures with initial cracks, such as can occur in modern high-strength materials which are susceptible to the formation of small flaws during the production process. The method has been applied to a structure of high-strength steel and the results are compared with those obtained by the current life estimation procedures. This has shown that the conventional methods can be unconservative in certain cases, depending on the characteristics of the structure and the design operating conditions. The suitability of the probabilistic approach to the interpretation of the results from full-scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures is discussed and the assumptions involved are examined.

GPS/DR Error Estimation for Autonomous Vehicle Localization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byung-Hyun Lee

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles require highly reliable navigation capabilities. For example, a lane-following method cannot be applied in an intersection without lanes, and since typical lane detection is performed using a straight-line model, errors can occur when the lateral distance is estimated in curved sections due to a model mismatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a localization method that uses GPS/DR error estimation based on a lane detection method with curved lane models, stop line detection, and curve matching in order to improve the performance during waypoint following procedures. The advantage of using the proposed method is that position information can be provided for autonomous driving through intersections, in sections with sharp curves, and in curved sections following a straight section. The proposed method was applied in autonomous vehicles at an experimental site to evaluate its performance, and the results indicate that the positioning achieved accuracy at the sub-meter level.

STARS software tool for analysis of reliability and safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poucet, A.; Guagnini, E.

1989-01-01

This paper reports on the STARS (Software Tool for the Analysis of Reliability and Safety) project aims at developing an integrated set of Computer Aided Reliability Analysis tools for the various tasks involved in systems safety and reliability analysis including hazard identification, qualitative analysis, logic model construction and evaluation. The expert system technology offers the most promising perspective for developing a Computer Aided Reliability Analysis tool. Combined with graphics and analysis capabilities, it can provide a natural engineering oriented environment for computer assisted reliability and safety modelling and analysis. For hazard identification and fault tree construction, a frame/rule based expert system is used, in which the deductive (goal driven) reasoning and the heuristic, applied during manual fault tree construction, is modelled. Expert system can explain their reasoning so that the analyst can become aware of the why and the how results are being obtained. Hence, the learning aspect involved in manual reliability and safety analysis can be maintained and improved

R&D program benefits estimation: DOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None, None

2006-12-04

The overall mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) is to lead national efforts to modernize the electric grid, enhance the security and reliability of the energy infrastructure, and facilitate recovery from disruptions to the energy supply. In support of this mission, OE conducts a portfolio of research and development (R&D) activities to advance technologies to enhance electric power delivery. Multiple benefits are anticipated to result from the deployment of these technologies, including higher quality and more reliable power, energy savings, and lower cost electricity. In addition, OE engages State and local government decision-makers and the private sector to address issues related to the reliability and security of the grid, including responding to national emergencies that affect energy delivery. The OE R&D activities are comprised of four R&D lines: High Temperature Superconductivity (HTS), Visualization and Controls (V&C), Energy Storage and Power Electronics (ES&PE), and Distributed Systems Integration (DSI).

Effect of Heat and Electricity Storage and Reliability on Microgrid Viability:A Study of Commercial Buildings in California and New York States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris; Siddiqui, Afzal; Lai, Judy; Coffey, Brian; Aki, Hirohisa

2008-12-01

In past work, Berkeley Lab has developed the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM). Given end-use energy details for a facility, a description of its economic environment and a menu of available equipment, DER-CAM finds the optimal investment portfolio and its operating schedule which together minimize the cost of meeting site service, e.g., cooling, heating, requirements. Past studies have considered combined heat and power (CHP) technologies. Methods and software have been developed to solve this problem, finding optimal solutions which take simultaneity into account. This project aims to extend on those prior capabilities in two key dimensions. In this research storage technologies have been added as well as power quality and reliability (PQR) features that provide the ability to value the additional indirect reliability benefit derived from Consortium for Electricity Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS) Microgrid capability. This project is intended to determine how attractive on-site generation becomes to a medium-sized commercial site if economical storage (both electrical and thermal), CHP opportunities, and PQR benefits are provided in addition to avoiding electricity purchases. On-site electrical storage, generators, and the ability to seamlessly connect and disconnect from utility service would provide the facility with ride-through capability for minor grid disturbances. Three building types in both California and New York are assumed to have a share of their sensitive electrical load separable. Providing enhanced service to this load fraction has an unknown value to the facility, which is estimated analytically. In summary, this project began with 3 major goals: (1) to conduct detailed analysis to find the optimal equipment combination for microgrids at a few promising commercial building hosts in the two favorable markets of California and New York; (2) to extend the analysis capability of DER-CAM to include both heat and

APPLICATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY FOR PERFORMANCE ORIENTED OPERATIONAL PLANNING OF EXPRESSWAYS

Science.gov (United States)

Mehran, Babak; Nakamura, Hideki

Evaluation of impacts of congestion improvement scheme s on travel time reliability is very significant for road authorities since travel time reliability repr esents operational performance of expressway segments. In this paper, a methodology is presented to estimate travel tim e reliability prior to implementation of congestion relief schemes based on travel time variation modeling as a function of demand, capacity, weather conditions and road accident s. For subject expressway segmen ts, traffic conditions are modeled over a whole year considering demand and capacity as random variables. Patterns of demand and capacity are generated for each five minute interval by appl ying Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and accidents are randomly generated based on a model that links acci dent rate to traffic conditions. A whole year analysis is performed by comparing de mand and available capacity for each scenario and queue length is estimated through shockwave analysis for each time in terval. Travel times are estimated from refined speed-flow relationships developed for intercity expressways and buffer time index is estimated consequently as a measure of travel time reliability. For validation, estimated reliability indices are compared with measured values from empirical data, and it is shown that the proposed method is suitable for operational evaluation and planning purposes.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 4: HARP Output (HARPO) graphics display user's guide

Science.gov (United States)

Sproles, Darrell W.; Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical postprocessor program HARPO (HARP Output). HARPO reads ASCII files generated by HARP. It provides an interactive plotting capability that can be used to display alternate model data for trade-off analyses. File data can also be imported to other commercial software programs.

A Review: Passive System Reliability Analysis – Accomplishments and Unresolved Issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nayak, Arun Kumar, E-mail: arunths@barc.gov.in [Reactor Engineering Division, Reactor Design and Development Group, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Chandrakar, Amit [Homi Bhabha National Institute, Mumbai (India); Vinod, Gopika [Reactor Safety Division, Reactor Design and Development Group, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

2014-10-10

Reliability assessment of passive safety systems is one of the important issues, since safety of advanced nuclear reactors rely on several passive features. In this context, a few methodologies such as reliability evaluation of passive safety system (REPAS), reliability methods for passive safety functions (RMPS), and analysis of passive systems reliability (APSRA) have been developed in the past. These methodologies have been used to assess reliability of various passive safety systems. While these methodologies have certain features in common, but they differ in considering certain issues; for example, treatment of model uncertainties, deviation of geometric, and process parameters from their nominal values. This paper presents the state of the art on passive system reliability assessment methodologies, the accomplishments, and remaining issues. In this review, three critical issues pertaining to passive systems performance and reliability have been identified. The first issue is applicability of best estimate codes and model uncertainty. The best estimate codes based phenomenological simulations of natural convection passive systems could have significant amount of uncertainties, these uncertainties must be incorporated in appropriate manner in the performance and reliability analysis of such systems. The second issue is the treatment of dynamic failure characteristics of components of passive systems. REPAS, RMPS, and APSRA methodologies do not consider dynamic failures of components or process, which may have strong influence on the failure of passive systems. The influence of dynamic failure characteristics of components on system failure probability is presented with the help of a dynamic reliability methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. The analysis of a benchmark problem of Hold-up tank shows the error in failure probability estimation by not considering the dynamism of components. It is thus suggested that dynamic reliability methodologies must be

Intra-rater reliability of motor unit number estimation and quantitative motor unit analysis in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ives, Colleen T; Doherty, Timothy J

2014-01-01

To assess the intra-rater reliability of decomposition-enhanced spike-triggered averaging (DE-STA) motor unit number estimation (MUNE) and quantitative motor unit potential analysis in the upper trapezius (UT) and biceps brachii (BB) of subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and to compare the results from the UT to control data. Patients diagnosed with clinically probable or definite ALS completed the experimental protocol twice with the same evaluator for the UT (n=10) and BB (n=9). Intra-rater reliability for the UT was good for the maximum compound muscle action potential (CMAP) (ICC=0.88), mean surface-detected motor unit potential (S-MUP) (ICC=0.87) and MUNE (ICC=0.88), and for the BB was moderate for maximum CMAP (ICC=0.61), and excellent for mean S-MUP (ICC=0.94) and MUNE (ICC=0.93). A significant difference between tests was found for UT MUNE. Comparing subjects with ALS to control subjects, UT maximum CMAP (p<0.01) and MUNE (p<0.001) values were significantly lower, and mean S-MUP values significantly greater (p<0.05) in subjects with ALS. This study has demonstrated the ability of the DE-STA MUNE technique to collect highly reliable data from two separate muscle groups and to detect the underlying pathophysiology of the disease. This was the first study to examine the reliability of this technique in subjects with ALS, and demonstrates its potential for future use as an outcome measure in ALS clinical trials and studies of ALS disease severity and natural history. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning reliable manipulation strategies without initial physical models

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Alan D.; Mason, Matthew T.; Mitchell, Tom M.

1990-01-01

A description is given of a robot, possessing limited sensory and effectory capabilities but no initial model of the effects of its actions on the world, that acquires such a model through exploration, practice, and observation. By acquiring an increasingly correct model of its actions, it generates increasingly successful plans to achieve its goals. In an apparently nondeterministic world, achieving reliability requires the identification of reliable actions and a preference for using such actions. Furthermore, by selecting its training actions carefully, the robot can significantly improve its learning rate.

Evaluation and reliability of bone histological age estimation methods

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Human age estimation at death plays a vital role in forensic anthropology and bioarchaeology. Researchers used morphological and histological methods to estimate human age from their skeletal remains. This paper discussed different histological methods that used human long bones and ribs to determine age ...

Inverse estimation of heat flux and temperature on nozzle throat-insert inner contour

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Tsung-Chien [Department of Power Vehicle and Systems Engineering, Chung Cheng Institute of Technology, National Defense University, Ta-Hsi, Tao-Yuan 33509 (China); Liu, Chiun-Chien [Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology, Lung-Tan, Tao-Yuan 32526 (China)

2008-07-01

During the missile flight, the jet flow with high temperature comes from the heat flux of propellant burning. An enormous heat flux from the nozzle throat-insert inner contour conducted into the nozzle shell will degrade the material strength of nozzle shell and reduce the nozzle thrust efficiency. In this paper, an on-line inverse method based on the input estimation method combined with the finite-element scheme is proposed to inversely estimate the unknown heat flux on the nozzle throat-insert inner contour and the inner wall temperature by applying the temperature measurements of the nozzle throat-insert. The finite-element scheme can easily define the irregularly shaped boundary. The superior capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in two major time-varying estimation cases. The computational results show that the proposed method has good estimation performance and highly facilitates the practical implementation. An effective analytical method can be offered to increase the operation reliability and thermal-resistance layer design in the solid rocket motor. (author)

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, David J.; Viterna, Larry A.

1991-01-01

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

Reliability and validity of the McDonald Play Inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Ann E; Vigen, Cheryl

2012-01-01

This study examined the ability of a two-part self-report instrument, the McDonald Play Inventory, to reliably and validly measure the play activities and play styles of 7- to 11-yr-old children and to discriminate between the play of neurotypical children and children with known learning and developmental disabilities. A total of 124 children ages 7-11 recruited from a sample of convenience and a subsample of 17 parents participated in this study. Reliability estimates yielded moderate correlations for internal consistency, total test intercorrelations, and test-retest reliability. Validity estimates were established for content and construct validity. The results suggest that a self-report instrument yields reliable and valid measures of a child's perceived play performance and discriminates between the play of children with and without disabilities. Copyright © 2012 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2012-01-01

A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…

Lithium-ion battery state of function estimation based on fuzzy logic algorithm with associated variables

Science.gov (United States)

Gan, L.; Yang, F.; Shi, Y. F.; He, H. L.

2017-11-01

Many occasions related to batteries demand to know how much continuous and instantaneous power can batteries provide such as the rapidly developing electric vehicles. As the large-scale applications of lithium-ion batteries, lithium-ion batteries are used to be our research object. Many experiments are designed to get the lithium-ion battery parameters to ensure the relevance and reliability of the estimation. To evaluate the continuous and instantaneous load capability of a battery called state-of-function (SOF), this paper proposes a fuzzy logic algorithm based on battery state-of-charge(SOC), state-of-health(SOH) and C-rate parameters. Simulation and experimental results indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for battery SOF estimation.

Linkage reliability in local area network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buissson, J.; Sanchis, P.

1984-11-01

The local area networks for industrial applications e.g. in nuclear power plants counterparts intended for office use that they are required to meet more stringent requirements in terms of reliability, security and availability. The designers of such networks take full advantage of the office-oriented developments (more specifically the integrated circuits) and increase their performance capabilities with respect to the industrial requirements [fr

Delivering high performance BWR fuel reliably

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schardt, J.F. [GE Nuclear Energy, Wilmington, NC (United States)

1998-07-01

Utilities are under intense pressure to reduce their production costs in order to compete in the increasingly deregulated marketplace. They need fuel, which can deliver high performance to meet demanding operating strategies. GE's latest BWR fuel design, GE14, provides that high performance capability. GE's product introduction process assures that this performance will be delivered reliably, with little risk to the utility. (author)

The Renovation and Future Capabilities of the Thacher Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Katie; Osuna, Natalie; Edwards, Nick; Klink, Douglas; Swift, Jonathan; Vyhnal, Chris; Meyer, Kurt

2016-01-01

The Thacher School is in the process of renovating the campus observatory with a new meter class telescope and full automation capabilities for the purpose of scientific research and education. New equipment on site has provided a preliminary site characterization including seeing and V-band sky brightness measurements. These data, along with commissioning data from the MINERVA project (which uses comparable hardware) are used to estimate the capabilities of the observatory once renovation is complete. Our V-band limiting magnitude is expected to be better than 21.3 for a one minute integration time, and we estimate that milli-magnitude precision photometry will be possible for a V=14.5 point source over approximately 5 min timescales. The quick response, autonomous operation, and multi-band photometric capabilities of the renovated observatory will make it a powerful follow-up science facility for exoplanets, eclipsing binaries, near-Earth objects, stellar variability, and supernovae.

MCNP Perturbation Capability for Monte Carlo Criticality Calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendricks, J.S.; Carter, L.L.; McKinney, G.W.

1999-01-01

The differential operator perturbation capability in MCNP4B has been extended to automatically calculate perturbation estimates for the track length estimate of k eff in MCNP4B. The additional corrections required in certain cases for MCNP4B are no longer needed. Calculating the effect of small design changes on the criticality of nuclear systems with MCNP is now straightforward

Reliability of Instruments Measuring At-Risk and Problem Gambling Among Young Individuals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Edgren, Robert; Castrén, Sari; Mäkelä, Marjukka

2016-01-01

This review aims to clarify which instruments measuring at-risk and problem gambling (ARPG) among youth are reliable and valid in light of reported estimates of internal consistency, classification accuracy, and psychometric properties. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Medline, and Psyc......Info covering the years 2009–2015. In total, 50 original research articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria: target age under 29 years, using an instrument designed for youth, and reporting a reliability estimate. Articles were evaluated with the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool....... Reliability estimates were reported for five ARPG instruments. Most studies (66%) evaluated the South Oaks Gambling Screen Revised for Adolescents. The Gambling Addictive Behavior Scale for Adolescents was the only novel instrument. In general, the evaluation of instrument reliability was superficial. Despite...

Reliability modeling of Clinch River breeder reactor electrical shutdown systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schatz, R.A.; Duetsch, K.L.

1974-01-01

The initial simulation of the probabilistic properties of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant (CRBRP) electrical shutdown systems is described. A model of the reliability (and availability) of the systems is presented utilizing Success State and continuous-time, discrete state Markov modeling techniques as significant elements of an overall reliability assessment process capable of demonstrating the achievement of program goals. This model is examined for its sensitivity to safe/unsafe failure rates, sybsystem redundant configurations, test and repair intervals, monitoring by reactor operators; and the control exercised over system reliability by design modifications and the selection of system operating characteristics. (U.S.)

Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2008-01-01

In order to minimise the total expected life-cycle costs of a wind turbine it is important to estimate the reliability level for all components in the wind turbine. This paper deals with reliability analysis for the tower and blades of onshore wind turbines placed in a wind farm. The limit states...... consideres are in the ultimate limit state (ULS) extreme conditions in the standstill position and extreme conditions during operating. For wind turbines, where the magnitude of the loads is influenced by the control system, the ultimate limit state can occur in both cases. In the fatigue limit state (FLS......) the reliability level for a wind turbine placed in a wind farm is considered, and wake effects from neighbouring wind turbines is taken into account. An illustrative example with calculation of the reliability for mudline bending of the tower is considered. In the example the design is determined according...

Comparison of Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Estimates Obtained from Four Portable Field Spectroradiometers

Science.gov (United States)

Julitta, Tommaso; Corp, Lawrence A.; Rossini, Micol; Burkart, Andreas; Cogliati, Sergio; Davies, Neville; Hom, Milton; Mac Arthur, Alasdair; Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Rascher, Uwe;

Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2014 capability development report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2016-05-11

This report provides an overview of the development of the NISAC CGE economic modeling capability since 2012. This capability enhances NISAC's economic modeling and analysis capabilities to answer a broader set of questions than possible with previous economic analysis capability. In particular, CGE modeling captures how the different sectors of the economy, for example, households, businesses, government, etc., interact to allocate resources in an economy and this approach captures these interactions when it is used to estimate the economic impacts of the kinds of events NISAC often analyzes.

Indian program for development of technologies relevant to reliable, non-intrusive, concealed-contraband detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auluck, S.K.H.

2007-01-01

Generating capability for reliable, non-intrusive detection of concealed-contraband, particularly, organic contraband like explosives and narcotics, has become a national priority. This capability spans a spectrum of technologies. If a technology mission addressing the needs of a highly sophisticated technology like PFNA is set up, the capabilities acquired would be adequate to meet the requirements of many other sets of technologies. This forms the background of the Indian program for development of technologies relevant to reliable, non-intrusive, concealed contraband detection. One of the central themes of the technology development programs would be modularization of the neutron source and detector technologies, so that common elements can be combined in different ways for meeting a variety of application requirements. (author)

Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

2018-02-15

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

Comparability and Reliability Considerations of Adequate Yearly Progress

Science.gov (United States)

Maier, Kimberly S.; Maiti, Tapabrata; Dass, Sarat C.; Lim, Chae Young

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to develop an estimate of Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) that will allow for reliable and valid comparisons among student subgroups, schools, and districts. A shrinkage-type estimator of AYP using the Bayesian framework is described. Using simulated data, the performance of the Bayes estimator will be compared to…

Validating the absolute reliability of a fat free mass estimate equation in hemodialysis patients using near-infrared spectroscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kono, Kenichi; Nishida, Yusuke; Moriyama, Yoshihumi; Taoka, Masahiro; Sato, Takashi

2015-06-01

The assessment of nutritional states using fat free mass (FFM) measured with near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is clinically useful. This measurement should incorporate the patient's post-dialysis weight ("dry weight"), in order to exclude the effects of any change in water mass. We therefore used NIRS to investigate the regression, independent variables, and absolute reliability of FFM in dry weight. The study included 47 outpatients from the hemodialysis unit. Body weight was measured before dialysis, and FFM was measured using NIRS before and after dialysis treatment. Multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the FFM in dry weight as the dependent variable. The measured FFM before dialysis treatment (Mw-FFM), and the difference between measured and dry weight (Mw-Dw) were independent variables. We performed Bland-Altman analysis to detect errors between the statistically estimated FFM and the measured FFM after dialysis treatment. The multiple regression equation to estimate the FFM in dry weight was: Dw-FFM = 0.038 + (0.984 × Mw-FFM) + (-0.571 × [Mw-Dw]); R(2)  = 0.99). There was no systematic bias between the estimated and the measured values of FFM in dry weight. Using NIRS, FFM in dry weight can be calculated by an equation including FFM in measured weight and the difference between the measured weight and the dry weight. © 2015 The Authors. Therapeutic Apheresis and Dialysis © 2015 International Society for Apheresis.

Revisiting the Fundamentals and Capabilities of the Stack Compression Test

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alves, L.M.; Nielsen, Chris Valentin; Martin, P.A.F.

2011-01-01

performance by comparing the flow curves obtained from its utilisation with those determined by means of compressive testing carried out on solid cylinder specimens of the same material. Results show that mechanical testing of materials by means of the stack compression test is capable of meeting...... the increasing demand of accurate and reliable flow curves for sheet metals....

Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik

Cost reductions for offshore wind turbines are a substantial requirement in order to make offshore wind energy more competitive compared to other energy supply methods. During the 20 – 25 years of wind turbines useful life, Operation & Maintenance costs are typically estimated to be a quarter...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied...... to one third of the total cost of energy. Reduction of Operation & Maintenance costs will result in significant cost savings and result in cheaper electricity production. Operation & Maintenance processes mainly involve actions related to replacements or repair. Identifying the right times when...

Possibilities and Limitations of Applying Software Reliability Growth Models to Safety- Critical Software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol; Jang, Seung Cheol; Ha, Jae Joo

2006-01-01

As digital systems are gradually introduced to nuclear power plants (NPPs), the need of quantitatively analyzing the reliability of the digital systems is also increasing. Kang and Sung identified (1) software reliability, (2) common-cause failures (CCFs), and (3) fault coverage as the three most critical factors in the reliability analysis of digital systems. For the estimation of the safety-critical software (the software that is used in safety-critical digital systems), the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) seems to be most widely used. The use of BBNs in reliability estimation of safety-critical software is basically a process of indirectly assigning a reliability based on various observed information and experts' opinions. When software testing results or software failure histories are available, we can use a process of directly estimating the reliability of the software using various software reliability growth models such as Jelinski- Moranda model and Goel-Okumoto's nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model. Even though it is generally known that software reliability growth models cannot be applied to safety-critical software due to small number of expected failure data from the testing of safety-critical software, we try to find possibilities and corresponding limitations of applying software reliability growth models to safety critical software

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popescu V.S.

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Power distribution systems are basic parts of power systems and reliability of these systems at present is a key issue for power engineering development and requires special attention. Operation of distribution systems is accompanied by a number of factors that produce random data a large number of unplanned interruptions. Research has shown that the predominant factors that have a significant influence on the reliability of distribution systems are: weather conditions (39.7%, defects in equipment(25% and unknown random factors (20.1%. In the article is studied the influence of random behavior and are presented estimations of reliability of predominantly rural electrical distribution systems.

System reliability analysis with natural language and expert's subjectivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onisawa, T.

1996-01-01

This paper introduces natural language expressions and expert's subjectivity to system reliability analysis. To this end, this paper defines a subjective measure of reliability and presents the method of the system reliability analysis using the measure. The subjective measure of reliability corresponds to natural language expressions of reliability estimation, which is represented by a fuzzy set defined on [0,1]. The presented method deals with the dependence among subsystems and employs parametrized operations of subjective measures of reliability which can reflect expert 's subjectivity towards the analyzed system. The analysis results are also expressed by linguistic terms. Finally this paper gives an example of the system reliability analysis by the presented method

Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

1985-08-01

Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

The Uncertainty estimation of Alanine/ESR dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Bo Rum; An, Jin Hee; Choi, Hoon; Kim, Young Ki

2008-01-01

Machinery, tools and cable etc are in the nuclear power plant which environment is very severe. By measuring actual dose, it needs for extending life expectancy of the machinery and tools and the cable. Therefore, we estimated on dose (gamma ray) of Wolsong nuclear power division 1 by dose estimation technology for three years. The dose estimation technology was secured by ESR(Electron Spin Resonance) dose estimation using regression analysis. We estimate uncertainty for secure a reliability of results. The uncertainty estimation will be able to judge the reliability of measurement results. The estimation of uncertainty referred the international unified guide in order; GUM(Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement). It was published by International Standardization for Organization (ISO) in 1993. In this study the uncertainty of e-scan and EMX those are ESR equipment were evaluated and compared. Base on these results, it will improve the reliability of measurement

A method of bias correction for maximal reliability with dichotomous measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Penev, Spiridon; Raykov, Tenko

2010-02-01

This paper is concerned with the reliability of weighted combinations of a given set of dichotomous measures. Maximal reliability for such measures has been discussed in the past, but the pertinent estimator exhibits a considerable bias and mean squared error for moderate sample sizes. We examine this bias, propose a procedure for bias correction, and develop a more accurate asymptotic confidence interval for the resulting estimator. In most empirically relevant cases, the bias correction and mean squared error correction can be performed simultaneously. We propose an approximate (asymptotic) confidence interval for the maximal reliability coefficient, discuss the implementation of this estimator, and investigate the mean squared error of the associated asymptotic approximation. We illustrate the proposed methods using a numerical example.

Reliability of drivers in urban intersections.

Science.gov (United States)

Gstalter, Herbert; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

2010-01-01

The concept of human reliability has been widely used in industrial settings by human factors experts to optimise the person-task fit. Reliability is estimated by the probability that a task will successfully be completed by personnel in a given stage of system operation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a technique used to calculate human error probabilities as the ratio of errors committed to the number of opportunities for that error. To transfer this notion to the measurement of car driver reliability the following components are necessary: a taxonomy of driving tasks, a definition of correct behaviour in each of these tasks, a list of errors as deviations from the correct actions and an adequate observation method to register errors and opportunities for these errors. Use of the SAFE-task analysis procedure recently made it possible to derive driver errors directly from the normative analysis of behavioural requirements. Driver reliability estimates could be used to compare groups of tasks (e.g. different types of intersections with their respective regulations) as well as groups of drivers' or individual drivers' aptitudes. This approach was tested in a field study with 62 drivers of different age groups. The subjects drove an instrumented car and had to complete an urban test route, the main features of which were 18 intersections representing six different driving tasks. The subjects were accompanied by two trained observers who recorded driver errors using standardized observation sheets. Results indicate that error indices often vary between both the age group of drivers and the type of driving task. The highest error indices occurred in the non-signalised intersection tasks and the roundabout, which exactly equals the corresponding ratings of task complexity from the SAFE analysis. A comparison of age groups clearly shows the disadvantage of older drivers, whose error indices in nearly all tasks are significantly higher than those of the other groups

A Simplified Procedure for Reliability Estimation of Underground Concrete Barriers against Normal Missile Impact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Siddiqui

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Underground concrete barriers are frequently used to protect strategic structures like Nuclear power plants (NPP, deep under the soil against any possible high velocity missile impact. For a given range and type of missile (or projectile it is of paramount importance to examine the reliability of underground concrete barriers under expected uncertainties involved in the missile, concrete, and soil parameters. In this paper, a simple procedure for the reliability assessment of underground concrete barriers against normal missile impact has been presented using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM. The presented procedure is illustrated by applying it to a concrete barrier that lies at a certain depth in the soil. Some parametric studies are also conducted to obtain the design values which make the barrier as reliable as desired.

Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

1995-01-01

For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this study to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results are close to the actual data

The effect of loss functions on empirical Bayes reliability analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vincent A. R. Camara

1999-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of empirical Bayes estimates of the reliability function with respect to changing of the loss function. In addition to applying some of the basic analytical results on empirical Bayes reliability obtained with the use of the “popular” squared error loss function, we shall derive some expressions corresponding to empirical Bayes reliability estimates obtained with the Higgins–Tsokos, the Harris and our proposed logarithmic loss functions. The concept of efficiency, along with the notion of integrated mean square error, will be used as a criterion to numerically compare our results.

Reliability analysis techniques for the design engineer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corran, E.R.; Witt, H.H.

1980-01-01

A fault tree analysis package is described that eliminates most of the housekeeping tasks involved in proceeding from the initial construction of a fault tree to the final stage of presenting a reliability analysis in a safety report. It is suitable for designers with relatively little training in reliability analysis and computer operation. Users can rapidly investigate the reliability implications of various options at the design stage, and evolve a system which meets specified reliability objectives. Later independent review is thus unlikely to reveal major shortcomings necessitating modification and projects delays. The package operates interactively allowing the user to concentrate on the creative task of developing the system fault tree, which may be modified and displayed graphically. For preliminary analysis system data can be derived automatically from a generic data bank. As the analysis procedes improved estimates of critical failure rates and test and maintenance schedules can be inserted. The computations are standard, - identification of minimal cut-sets, estimation of reliability parameters, and ranking of the effect of the individual component failure modes and system failure modes on these parameters. The user can vary the fault trees and data on-line, and print selected data for preferred systems in a form suitable for inclusion in safety reports. A case history is given - that of HIFAR containment isolation system. (author)

Assessing sufficient capability: A new approach to economic evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Paul Mark; Roberts, Tracy E; Barton, Pelham M; Coast, Joanna

2015-08-01

Amartya Sen's capability approach has been discussed widely in the health economics discipline. Although measures have been developed to assess capability in economic evaluation, there has been much less attention paid to the decision rules that might be applied alongside. Here, new methods, drawing on the multidimensional poverty and health economics literature, are developed for conducting economic evaluation within the capability approach and focusing on an objective of achieving "sufficient capability". This objective more closely reflects the concern with equity that pervades the capability approach and the method has the advantage of retaining the longitudinal aspect of estimating outcome that is associated with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), whilst also drawing on notions of shortfall associated with assessments of poverty. Economic evaluation from this perspective is illustrated in an osteoarthritis patient group undergoing joint replacement, with capability wellbeing assessed using ICECAP-O. Recommendations for taking the sufficient capability approach forward are provided. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

2015-01-01

Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

An evaluation of the multi-state node networks reliability using the traditional binary-state networks reliability algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, W.-C.

2003-01-01

A system where the components and system itself are allowed to have a number of performance levels is called the Multi-state system (MSS). A multi-state node network (MNN) is a generalization of the MSS without satisfying the flow conservation law. Evaluating the MNN reliability arises at the design and exploitation stage of many types of technical systems. Up to now, the known existing methods can only evaluate a special MNN reliability called the multi-state node acyclic network (MNAN) in which no cyclic is allowed. However, no method exists for evaluating the general MNN reliability. The main purpose of this article is to show first that each MNN reliability can be solved using any the traditional binary-state networks (TBSN) reliability algorithm with a special code for the state probability. A simple heuristic SDP algorithm based on minimal cuts (MC) for estimating the MNN reliability is presented as an example to show how the TBSN reliability algorithm is revised to solve the MNN reliability problem. To the author's knowledge, this study is the first to discuss the relationships between MNN and TBSN and also the first to present methods to solve the exact and approximated MNN reliability. One example is illustrated to show how the exact MNN reliability is obtained using the proposed algorithm

Automated reliability assessment for spectroscopic redshift measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Jamal, S.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fèvre, O.; Vibert, D.; Schmitt, A.; Surace, C.; Copin, Y.; Garilli, B.; Moresco, M.; Pozzetti, L.

2018-03-01

Context. Future large-scale surveys, such as the ESA Euclid mission, will produce a large set of galaxy redshifts (≥106) that will require fully automated data-processing pipelines to analyze the data, extract crucial information and ensure that all requirements are met. A fundamental element in these pipelines is to associate to each galaxy redshift measurement a quality, or reliability, estimate. Aim. In this work, we introduce a new approach to automate the spectroscopic redshift reliability assessment based on machine learning (ML) and characteristics of the redshift probability density function. Methods: We propose to rephrase the spectroscopic redshift estimation into a Bayesian framework, in order to incorporate all sources of information and uncertainties related to the redshift estimation process and produce a redshift posterior probability density function (PDF). To automate the assessment of a reliability flag, we exploit key features in the redshift posterior PDF and machine learning algorithms. Results: As a working example, public data from the VIMOS VLT Deep Survey is exploited to present and test this new methodology. We first tried to reproduce the existing reliability flags using supervised classification in order to describe different types of redshift PDFs, but due to the subjective definition of these flags (classification accuracy 58%), we soon opted for a new homogeneous partitioning of the data into distinct clusters via unsupervised classification. After assessing the accuracy of the new clusters via resubstitution and test predictions (classification accuracy 98%), we projected unlabeled data from preliminary mock simulations for the Euclid space mission into this mapping to predict their redshift reliability labels. Conclusions: Through the development of a methodology in which a system can build its own experience to assess the quality of a parameter, we are able to set a preliminary basis of an automated reliability assessment for

78 FR 57418 - Compliance With Order EA-13-109, Order Modifying Licenses With Regard to Reliable Hardened...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-18

... Licenses With Regard to Reliable Hardened Containment Vents Capable of Operation Under Severe Accident... Capable of Operation under Severe Accident Conditions.'' (ADAMS Accession No. ML13247A417) This draft JLD... Containment Vents Capable of Operation under Severe Accident Conditions'' (ADAMS Accession No. ML13130A067...

A double-loop adaptive sampling approach for sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zequn; Wang, Pingfeng

2015-01-01

Dynamic reliability measures reliability of an engineered system considering time-variant operation condition and component deterioration. Due to high computational costs, conducting dynamic reliability analysis at an early system design stage remains challenging. This paper presents a confidence-based meta-modeling approach, referred to as double-loop adaptive sampling (DLAS), for efficient sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis. The DLAS builds a Gaussian process (GP) model sequentially to approximate extreme system responses over time, so that Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be employed directly to estimate dynamic reliability. A generic confidence measure is developed to evaluate the accuracy of dynamic reliability estimation while using the MCS approach based on developed GP models. A double-loop adaptive sampling scheme is developed to efficiently update the GP model in a sequential manner, by considering system input variables and time concurrently in two sampling loops. The model updating process using the developed sampling scheme can be terminated once the user defined confidence target is satisfied. The developed DLAS approach eliminates computationally expensive sensitivity analysis process, thus substantially improves the efficiency of dynamic reliability analysis. Three case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy of DLAS for dynamic reliability analysis. - Highlights: • Developed a novel adaptive sampling approach for dynamic reliability analysis. • POD Developed a new metric to quantify the accuracy of dynamic reliability estimation. • Developed a new sequential sampling scheme to efficiently update surrogate models. • Three case studies were used to demonstrate the efficacy of the new approach. • Case study results showed substantially enhanced efficiency with high accuracy

Reliability analysis of neutron flux monitoring system for PFBR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, M.G.; Bhatnagar, P.V.; Das, D.; Pithawa, C.K.; Vinod, Gopika; Rao, V.V.S.S.

2010-01-01

The Neutron Flux Monitoring System (NFMS) measures reactor power, rate of change of power and reactivity changes in the core in all states of operation and shutdown. The system consists of instrument channels that are designed and built to have high reliability. All channels are required to have a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of 150000 hours minimum. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and failure rate estimation of NFMS channels has been carried out. FMEA is carried out in compliance with MIL-STD-338B. Reliability estimation of the channels is done according to MIL-HDBK-217FN2. Paper discusses the methodology followed for FMEA and failure rate estimation of two safety channels and results. (author)

Pre-Proposal Assessment of Reliability for Spacecraft Docking with Limited Information

Science.gov (United States)

Brall, Aron

2013-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the reliability of a critical system function as well as its impact on the system reliability when limited information is available. The approach addresses the basic function reliability, and then the impact of multiple attempts to accomplish the function. The dependence of subsequent attempts on prior failure to accomplish the function is also addressed. The autonomous docking of two spacecraft was the specific example that generated the inquiry, and the resultant impact on total reliability generated substantial interest in presenting the results due to the relative insensitivity of overall performance to basic function reliability and moderate degradation given sufficient attempts to try and accomplish the required goal. The application of the methodology allows proper emphasis on the characteristics that can be estimated with some knowledge, and to insulate the integrity of the design from those characteristics that can't be properly estimated with any rational value of uncertainty. The nature of NASA's missions contains a great deal of uncertainty due to the pursuit of new science or operations. This approach can be applied to any function where multiple attempts at success, with or without degradation, are allowed.

Structural Reliability Methods for Wind Power Converter System Component Reliability Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2012-01-01

Wind power converter systems are essential subsystems in both off-shore and on-shore wind turbines. It is the main interface between generator and grid connection. This system is affected by numerous stresses where the main contributors might be defined as vibration and temperature loadings....... The temperature variations induce time-varying stresses and thereby fatigue loads. A probabilistic model is used to model fatigue failure for an electrical component in the power converter system. This model is based on a linear damage accumulation and physics of failure approaches, where a failure criterion...... is defined by the threshold model. The attention is focused on crack propagation in solder joints of electrical components due to the temperature loadings. Structural Reliability approaches are used to incorporate model, physical and statistical uncertainties. Reliability estimation by means of structural...

Reliability-oriented Design of a Cost-effective Active Capacitor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Haoran; Wang, Huai

2017-01-01

This paper presents the reliability-oriented design of a two-terminal active capacitor proposed recently. The two-terminal active capacitor has the same level of convenience as a passive capacitor with reduced requirement of overall energy storage. In order to fully explore the potential...... of the proposed concept, a comprehensive design procedure is necessary to optimally sizing the key components of the active capacitor in terms of cost and reliability. Moreover, the inherent condition monitoring capability of the active capacitor is discussed by utilizing the existing feedback signals. A 500 W...

Software Estimation: Developing an Accurate, Reliable Method

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-01

based and size-based estimates is able to accurately plan, launch, and execute on schedule. Bob Sinclair, NAWCWD Chris Rickets , NAWCWD Brad Hodgins...Office by Carnegie Mellon University. SMPSP and SMTSP are service marks of Carnegie Mellon University. 1. Rickets , Chris A, “A TSP Software Maintenance...Life Cycle”, CrossTalk, March, 2005. 2. Koch, Alan S, “TSP Can Be the Building blocks for CMMI”, CrossTalk, March, 2005. 3. Hodgins, Brad, Rickets

Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Scarf Joints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kimiaeifar, Amin; Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Lund, Erik

2012-01-01

element analysis (FEA). For the reliability analysis a design equation is considered which is related to a deterministic code-based design equation where reliability is secured by partial safety factors together with characteristic values for the material properties and loads. The failure criteria......A probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded scarfed lap joints subjected to static loading is developed. It is representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to flapwise bending. The structural analysis is based on a three dimensional (3D) finite...... are formulated using a von Mises, a modified von Mises and a maximum stress failure criterion. The reliability level is estimated for the scarfed lap joint and this is compared with the target reliability level implicitly used in the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. A convergence study is performed to validate...

Estimation of gingival crevicular blood glucose level for the screening of diabetes mellitus: A simple yet reliable method.

Science.gov (United States)

Parihar, Sarita; Tripathi, Richik; Parihar, Ajit Vikram; Samadi, Fahad M; Chandra, Akhilesh; Bhavsar, Neeta

2016-01-01

This study was designed to assess the reliability of blood glucose level estimation in gingival crevicular blood(GCB) for screening diabetes mellitus. 70 patients were included in study. A randomized, double-blind clinical trial was performed. Among these, 39 patients were diabetic (including 4 patients who were diagnosed during the study) and rest 31 patients were non-diabetic. GCB obtained during routine periodontal examination was analyzed by glucometer to know blood glucose level. The same patient underwent for finger stick blood (FSB) glucose level estimation with glucometer and venous blood (VB) glucose level with standardized laboratory method as per American Diabetes Association Guidelines. 1 All the three blood glucose levels were compared. Periodontal parameters were also recorded including gingival index (GI) and probing pocket depth (PPD). A strong positive correlation ( r ) was observed between glucose levels of GCB with FSB and VB with the values of 0.986 and 0.972 in diabetic group and 0.820 and 0.721 in non-diabetic group. As well, the mean values of GI and PPD were more in diabetic group than non-diabetic group with the statistically significant difference ( p  blood glucose level as the values were closest to glucose levels estimated by VB. The technique is safe, easy to perform and non-invasive to the patient and can increase the frequency of diagnosing diabetes during routine periodontal therapy.

Neurology objective structured clinical examination reliability using generalizability theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Blood, Angela D; Park, Yoon Soo; Lukas, Rimas V; Brorson, James R

2015-11-03

This study examines factors affecting reliability, or consistency of assessment scores, from an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) in neurology through generalizability theory (G theory). Data include assessments from a multistation OSCE taken by 194 medical students at the completion of a neurology clerkship. Facets evaluated in this study include cases, domains, and items. Domains refer to areas of skill (or constructs) that the OSCE measures. G theory is used to estimate variance components associated with each facet, derive reliability, and project the number of cases required to obtain a reliable (consistent, precise) score. Reliability using G theory is moderate (Φ coefficient = 0.61, G coefficient = 0.64). Performance is similar across cases but differs by the particular domain, such that the majority of variance is attributed to the domain. Projections in reliability estimates reveal that students need to participate in 3 OSCE cases in order to increase reliability beyond the 0.70 threshold. This novel use of G theory in evaluating an OSCE in neurology provides meaningful measurement characteristics of the assessment. Differing from prior work in other medical specialties, the cases students were randomly assigned did not influence their OSCE score; rather, scores varied in expected fashion by domain assessed. © 2015 American Academy of Neurology.

Estimation of mean and median pO2 values for a composite EPR spectrum.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Rizwan; Vikram, Deepti S; Potter, Lee C; Kuppusamy, Periannan

2008-06-01

Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR)-based oximetry is capable of quantifying oxygen content in samples. However, for a heterogeneous environment with multiple pO2 values, peak-to-peak linewidth of the composite EPR lineshape does not provide a reliable estimate of the overall pO2 in the sample. The estimate, depending on the heterogeneity, can be severely biased towards narrow components. To address this issue, we suggest a postprocessing method to recover the linewidth histogram which can be used in estimating meaningful parameters, such as the mean and median pO2 values. This information, although not as comprehensive as obtained by EPR spectral-spatial imaging, goes beyond what can be generally achieved with conventional EPR spectroscopy. Substantially shorter acquisition times, in comparison to EPR imaging, may prompt its use in clinically relevant models. For validation, simulation and EPR experiment data are presented.

Estimation of the oxalate content of foods and daily oxalate intake

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, R. P.; Kennedy, M.

2000-01-01

BACKGROUND: The amount of oxalate ingested may be an important risk factor in the development of idiopathic calcium oxalate nephrolithiasis. Reliable food tables listing the oxalate content of foods are currently not available. The aim of this research was to develop an accurate and reliable method to measure the food content of oxalate. METHODS: Capillary electrophoresis (CE) and ion chromatography (IC) were compared as direct techniques for the estimation of the oxalate content of foods. Foods were thoroughly homogenized in acid, heat extracted, and clarified by centrifugation and filtration before dilution in water for analysis. Five individuals consuming self-selected diets maintained food records for three days to determine their mean daily oxalate intakes. RESULTS: Both techniques were capable of adequately measuring the oxalate in foods with a significant oxalate content. With foods of very low oxalate content (choice over IC for estimating the oxalate content of foods with a medium (>10 mg/100 g) to high oxalate content due to a faster analysis time and lower running costs, whereas IC may be better suited for the analysis of foods with a low oxalate content. Accurate estimates of the oxalate content of foods should permit the role of dietary oxalate in urinary oxalate excretion and stone formation to be clarified. Other factors, apart from the amount of oxalate ingested, appear to exert a major influence over the amount of oxalate excreted in the urine.

Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanjilal, Oindrila, E-mail: oindrila@civil.iisc.ernet.in; Manohar, C.S., E-mail: manohar@civil.iisc.ernet.in

2017-07-15

The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • The distance minimizing control forces minimize a bound on the sampling variance. • Establishing Girsanov controls via solution of a two-point boundary value problem. • Girsanov controls via Volterra's series representation for the transfer functions.

Evaluating detection and estimation capabilities of magnetometer-based vehicle sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Slater, David M.; Jacyna, Garry M.

2013-05-01

In an effort to secure the northern and southern United States borders, MITRE has been tasked with developing Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools that accurately capture the mapping between algorithm-level Measures of Performance (MOP) and system-level Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) for current/future surveillance systems deployed by the the Customs and Border Protection Office of Technology Innovations and Acquisitions (OTIA). This analysis is part of a larger M&S undertaking. The focus is on two MOPs for magnetometer-based Unattended Ground Sensors (UGS). UGS are placed near roads to detect passing vehicles and estimate properties of the vehicle's trajectory such as bearing and speed. The first MOP considered is the probability of detection. We derive probabilities of detection for a network of sensors over an arbitrary number of observation periods and explore how the probability of detection changes when multiple sensors are employed. The performance of UGS is also evaluated based on the level of variance in the estimation of trajectory parameters. We derive the Cramer-Rao bounds for the variances of the estimated parameters in two cases: when no a priori information is known and when the parameters are assumed to be Gaussian with known variances. Sample results show that UGS perform significantly better in the latter case.

Chip-Level Electromigration Reliability for Cu Interconnects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gall, M.; Oh, C.; Grinshpon, A.; Zolotov, V.; Panda, R.; Demircan, E.; Mueller, J.; Justison, P.; Ramakrishna, K.; Thrasher, S.; Hernandez, R.; Herrick, M.; Fox, R.; Boeck, B.; Kawasaki, H.; Haznedar, H.; Ku, P.

2004-01-01

Even after the successful introduction of Cu-based metallization, the electromigration (EM) failure risk has remained one of the most important reliability concerns for most advanced process technologies. Ever increasing operating current densities and the introduction of low-k materials in the backend process scheme are some of the issues that threaten reliable, long-term operation at elevated temperatures. The traditional method of verifying EM reliability only through current density limit checks is proving to be inadequate in general, or quite expensive at the best. A Statistical EM Budgeting (SEB) methodology has been proposed to assess more realistic chip-level EM reliability from the complex statistical distribution of currents in a chip. To be valuable, this approach requires accurate estimation of currents for all interconnect segments in a chip. However, no efficient technique to manage the complexity of such a task for very large chip designs is known. We present an efficient method to estimate currents exhaustively for all interconnects in a chip. The proposed method uses pre-characterization of cells and macros, and steps to identify and filter out symmetrically bi-directional interconnects. We illustrate the strength of the proposed approach using a high-performance microprocessor design for embedded applications as a case study

Estimation of potential uranium resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curry, D.L.

1977-09-01

Potential estimates, like reserves, are limited by the information on hand at the time and are not intended to indicate the ultimate resources. Potential estimates are based on geologic judgement, so their reliability is dependent on the quality and extent of geologic knowledge. Reliability differs for each of the three potential resource classes. It is greatest for probable potential resources because of the greater knowledge base resulting from the advanced stage of exploration and development in established producing districts where most of the resources in this class are located. Reliability is least for speculative potential resources because no significant deposits are known, and favorability is inferred from limited geologic data. Estimates of potential resources are revised as new geologic concepts are postulated, as new types of uranium ore bodies are discovered, and as improved geophysical and geochemical techniques are developed and applied. Advances in technology that permit the exploitation of deep or low-grade deposits, or the processing of ores of previously uneconomic metallurgical types, also will affect the estimates

Numerical differences between Guttman's reliability coefficients and the GLB

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterwijk, P.R.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.; van der Ark, L.A.; Bolt, D.M; Wang, W.-C.; Douglas, J.A.; Wiberg, M.

2016-01-01

For samples smaller than 1000 and tests longer than ten items, the greatest lower bound (GLB) to the reliability is known to be biased and not recommended as a method to estimate test-score reliability. As a first step in finding alternative lower bounds under these conditions, we investigated the

An assessment of the real-time application capabilities of the SIFT computer system

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, R. W.

1982-01-01

The real-time capabilities of the SIFT computer system, a highly reliable multicomputer architecture developed to support the flight controls of a relaxed static stability aircraft, are discussed. The SIFT computer system was designed to meet extremely high reliability requirements and to facilitate a formal proof of its correctness. Although SIFT represents a significant achievement in fault-tolerant system research it presents an unusual and restrictive interface to its users. The characteristics of the user interface and its impact on application system design are assessed.

Reliability of application of inspection procedures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murgatroyd, R A

1988-12-31

This document deals with the reliability of application of inspection procedures. A method to ensure that the inspection of defects thanks to fracture mechanics is reliable is described. The Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Analysis (SHERPA) methodology is applied to every task performed by the inspector to estimate the possibility of error. It appears that it is essential that inspection procedures should be sufficiently rigorous to avoid substantial errors, and that the selection procedures and the training period for inspectors should be optimised. (TEC). 3 refs.

Reliability of application of inspection procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murgatroyd, R.A.

1988-01-01

This document deals with the reliability of application of inspection procedures. A method to ensure that the inspection of defects thanks to fracture mechanics is reliable is described. The Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Analysis (SHERPA) methodology is applied to every task performed by the inspector to estimate the possibility of error. It appears that it is essential that inspection procedures should be sufficiently rigorous to avoid substantial errors, and that the selection procedures and the training period for inspectors should be optimised. (TEC)

Reliability analysis of software based safety functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1993-05-01

The methods applicable in the reliability analysis of software based safety functions are described in the report. Although the safety functions also include other components, the main emphasis in the report is on the reliability analysis of software. The check list type qualitative reliability analysis methods, such as failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), are described, as well as the software fault tree analysis. The safety analysis based on the Petri nets is discussed. The most essential concepts and models of quantitative software reliability analysis are described. The most common software metrics and their combined use with software reliability models are discussed. The application of software reliability models in PSA is evaluated; it is observed that the recent software reliability models do not produce the estimates needed in PSA directly. As a result from the study some recommendations and conclusions are drawn. The need of formal methods in the analysis and development of software based systems, the applicability of qualitative reliability engineering methods in connection to PSA and the need to make more precise the requirements for software based systems and their analyses in the regulatory guides should be mentioned. (orig.). (46 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.)

Parameter Estimation of a Reliability Model of Demand-Caused and Standby-Related Failures of Safety Components Exposed to Degradation by Demand Stress and Ageing That Undergo Imperfect Maintenance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Martorell

2017-01-01

Full Text Available One can find many reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM models proposed in the literature. However, such models become more complex day after day, as there is an attempt to capture equipment performance in a more realistic way, such as, explicitly addressing the effect of component ageing and degradation, surveillance activities, and corrective and preventive maintenance policies. Then, there is a need to fit the best model to real data by estimating the model parameters using an appropriate tool. This problem is not easy to solve in some cases since the number of parameters is large and the available data is scarce. This paper considers two main failure models commonly adopted to represent the probability of failure on demand (PFD of safety equipment: (1 by demand-caused and (2 standby-related failures. It proposes a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE approach for parameter estimation of a reliability model of demand-caused and standby-related failures of safety components exposed to degradation by demand stress and ageing that undergo imperfect maintenance. The case study considers real failure, test, and maintenance data for a typical motor-operated valve in a nuclear power plant. The results of the parameters estimation and the adoption of the best model are discussed.

Reliability and Agreement in Student Ratings of the Class Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Peter M.; Christ, Theodore J.

2016-01-01

The current study estimated the reliability and agreement of student ratings of the classroom environment obtained using the Responsive Environmental Assessment for Classroom Teaching (REACT; Christ, Nelson, & Demers, 2012; Nelson, Demers, & Christ, 2014). Coefficient alpha, class-level reliability, and class agreement indices were…

A comparative study and validation of state estimation algorithms for Li-ion batteries in battery management systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klee Barillas, Joaquín; Li, Jiahao; Günther, Clemens; Danzer, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Description of state observers for estimating the battery’s SOC. • Implementation of four estimation algorithms in a BMS. • Reliability and performance study of BMS regarding the estimation algorithms. • Analysis of the robustness and code properties of the estimation approaches. • Guide to evaluate estimation algorithms to improve the BMS performance. - Abstract: To increase lifetime, safety, and energy usage battery management systems (BMS) for Li-ion batteries have to be capable of estimating the state of charge (SOC) of the battery cells with a very low estimation error. The accurate SOC estimation and the real time reliability are critical issues for a BMS. In general an increasing complexity of the estimation methods leads to higher accuracy. On the other hand it also leads to a higher computational load and may exceed the BMS limitations or increase its costs. An approach to evaluate and verify estimation algorithms is presented as a requisite prior the release of the battery system. The approach consists of an analysis concerning the SOC estimation accuracy, the code properties, complexity, the computation time, and the memory usage. Furthermore, a study for estimation methods is proposed for their evaluation and validation with respect to convergence behavior, parameter sensitivity, initialization error, and performance. In this work, the introduced analysis is demonstrated with four of the most published model-based estimation algorithms including Luenberger observer, sliding-mode observer, Extended Kalman Filter and Sigma-point Kalman Filter. The experiments under dynamic current conditions are used to verify the real time functionality of the BMS. The results show that a simple estimation method like the sliding-mode observer can compete with the Kalman-based methods presenting less computational time and memory usage. Depending on the battery system’s application the estimation algorithm has to be selected to fulfill the

Operators guide: Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) site facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawver, B.S.

1977-01-01

In this report capabilities and services are described for the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC). The ARAC site system and its operating procedures and interactions with the ARAC central facility located at LLL is outlined. ARAC is designed to help officials at designated ERDA sites and other locations in estimating the effects of atmospheric releases of radionuclides or other hazardous materials by issuing real-time advisories to guide them in their planning

Operators guide: Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) site facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassaro, E.; Lomonaco, L.

1979-01-01

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is designed to help officials at designated DOE sites and other locations in estimating the effects of atmospheric releases of radionuclides or other hazardous materials by issuing real-time advisories to guide them in their planning. This report outlines the capabilities and sources of ARAC, and in more detail describes an ARAC Site Facility, its operating procedures and interactions with the ARAC Central Facility (ACF) located at LLL

Statistical Bayesian method for reliability evaluation based on ADT data

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Dawei; Wang, Lizhi; Sun, Yusheng; Wang, Xiaohong

2018-05-01

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is frequently conducted in the laboratory to predict the products’ reliability under normal operating conditions. Two kinds of methods, degradation path models and stochastic process models, are utilized to analyze degradation data and the latter one is the most popular method. However, some limitations like imprecise solution process and estimation result of degradation ratio still exist, which may affect the accuracy of the acceleration model and the extrapolation value. Moreover, the conducted solution of this problem, Bayesian method, lose key information when unifying the degradation data. In this paper, a new data processing and parameter inference method based on Bayesian method is proposed to handle degradation data and solve the problems above. First, Wiener process and acceleration model is chosen; Second, the initial values of degradation model and parameters of prior and posterior distribution under each level is calculated with updating and iteration of estimation values; Third, the lifetime and reliability values are estimated on the basis of the estimation parameters; Finally, a case study is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the proposed method is quite effective and accuracy in estimating the lifetime and reliability of a product.

Linear Interaction Energy Based Prediction of Cytochrome P450 1A2 Binding Affinities with Reliability Estimation.