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Sample records for reliability estimates ranging

  1. Estimation of Bridge Reliability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In this paper it is shown how the so-called reliability distributions can be estimated using crude Monte Carlo simulation. The main purpose is to demonstrate the methodology. Therefor very exact data concerning reliability and deterioration are not needed. However, it is intended in the paper to ...

  2. Standard error of measurement of five health utility indexes across the range of health for use in estimating reliability and responsiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palta, Mari; Chen, Han-Yang; Kaplan, Robert M.; Feeny, David; Cherepanov, Dasha; Fryback, Dennis

    2011-01-01

    Background Standard errors of measurement (SEMs) of health related quality of life (HRQoL) indexes are not well characterized. SEM is needed to estimate responsiveness statistics and provides guidance on using indexes on the individual and group level. SEM is also a component of reliability. Purpose To estimate SEM of five HRQoL indexes. Design The National Health Measurement Study (NHMS) was a population based telephone survey. The Clinical Outcomes and Measurement of Health Study (COMHS) provided repeated measures 1 and 6 months post cataract surgery. Subjects 3844 randomly selected adults from the non-institutionalized population 35 to 89 years old in the contiguous United States and 265 cataract patients. Measurements The SF6-36v2™, QWB-SA, EQ-5D, HUI2 and HUI3 were included. An item-response theory (IRT) approach captured joint variation in indexes into a composite construct of health (theta). We estimated: (1) the test-retest standard deviation (SEM-TR) from COMHS, (2) the structural standard deviation (SEM-S) around the composite construct from NHMS and (3) corresponding reliability coefficients. Results SEM-TR was 0.068 (SF-6D), 0.087 (QWB-SA), 0.093 (EQ-5D), 0.100 (HUI2) and 0.134 (HUI3), while SEM-S was 0.071, 0.094, 0.084, 0.074 and 0.117, respectively. These translate into reliability coefficients for SF-6D: 0.66 (COMHS) and 0.71 (NHMS), for QWB: 0.59 and 0.64, for EQ-5D: 0.61 and 0.70 for HUI2: 0.64 and 0.80, and for HUI3: 0.75 and 0.77, respectively. The SEM varied considerably across levels of health, especially for HUI2, HUI3 and EQ-5D, and was strongly influenced by ceiling effects. Limitations Repeated measures were five months apart and estimated theta contain measurement error. Conclusions The two types of SEM are similar and substantial for all the indexes, and vary across the range of health. PMID:20935280

  3. Standard error of measurement of 5 health utility indexes across the range of health for use in estimating reliability and responsiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palta, Mari; Chen, Han-Yang; Kaplan, Robert M; Feeny, David; Cherepanov, Dasha; Fryback, Dennis G

    2011-01-01

    Standard errors of measurement (SEMs) of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) indexes are not well characterized. SEM is needed to estimate responsiveness statistics, and is a component of reliability. To estimate the SEM of 5 HRQoL indexes. The National Health Measurement Study (NHMS) was a population-based survey. The Clinical Outcomes and Measurement of Health Study (COMHS) provided repeated measures. A total of 3844 randomly selected adults from the noninstitutionalized population aged 35 to 89 y in the contiguous United States and 265 cataract patients. The SF6-36v2™, QWB-SA, EQ-5D, HUI2, and HUI3 were included. An item-response theory approach captured joint variation in indexes into a composite construct of health (theta). The authors estimated 1) the test-retest standard deviation (SEM-TR) from COMHS, 2) the structural standard deviation (SEM-S) around theta from NHMS, and 3) reliability coefficients. SEM-TR was 0.068 (SF-6D), 0.087 (QWB-SA), 0.093 (EQ-5D), 0.100 (HUI2), and 0.134 (HUI3), whereas SEM-S was 0.071, 0.094, 0.084, 0.074, and 0.117, respectively. These yield reliability coefficients 0.66 (COMHS) and 0.71 (NHMS) for SF-6D, 0.59 and 0.64 for QWB-SA, 0.61 and 0.70 for EQ-5D, 0.64 and 0.80 for HUI2, and 0.75 and 0.77 for HUI3, respectively. The SEM varied across levels of health, especially for HUI2, HUI3, and EQ-5D, and was influenced by ceiling effects. Limitations. Repeated measures were 5 mo apart, and estimated theta contained measurement error. The 2 types of SEM are similar and substantial for all the indexes and vary across health.

  4. Reliability Estimation Based Upon Test Plan Results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Read, Robert

    1997-01-01

    The report contains a brief summary of aspects of the Maximus reliability point and interval estimation technique as it has been applied to the reliability of a device whose surveillance tests contain...

  5. Dependent systems reliability estimation by structural reliability approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Estimation of system reliability by classical system reliability methods generally assumes that the components are statistically independent, thus limiting its applicability in many practical situations. A method is proposed for estimation of the system reliability with dependent components, where...... the leading failure mechanism(s) is described by physics of failure model(s). The proposed method is based on structural reliability techniques and accounts for both statistical and failure effect correlations. It is assumed that failure of any component is due to increasing damage (fatigue phenomena...... identification. Application of the proposed method can be found in many real world systems....

  6. A Method of Nuclear Software Reliability Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Gee Yong; Eom, Heung Seop; Cheon, Se Woo; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2011-01-01

    A method on estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM) where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow the non-homogeneous Poisson process. Several modeling schemes are presented in order to estimate and predict more precisely the number of software defects based on a few of software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating the software test cases into the model. It is identified that this method is capable of accurately estimating the remaining number of software defects which are on-demand type directly affecting safety trip functions. The software reliability can be estimated from a model equation and one method of obtaining the software reliability is proposed

  7. Reliability Estimates for Undergraduate Grade Point Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westrick, Paul A.

    2017-01-01

    Undergraduate grade point average (GPA) is a commonly employed measure in educational research, serving as a criterion or as a predictor depending on the research question. Over the decades, researchers have used a variety of reliability coefficients to estimate the reliability of undergraduate GPA, which suggests that there has been no consensus…

  8. Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey; Dolan, John; Stancliff, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    A mission reliability estimation method has been designed to translate mission requirements into choices of robot modules in order to configure a multi-robot team to have high reliability at minimal cost. In order to build cost-effective robot teams for long-term missions, one must be able to compare alternative design paradigms in a principled way by comparing the reliability of different robot models and robot team configurations. Core modules have been created including: a probabilistic module with reliability-cost characteristics, a method for combining the characteristics of multiple modules to determine an overall reliability-cost characteristic, and a method for the generation of legitimate module combinations based on mission specifications and the selection of the best of the resulting combinations from a cost-reliability standpoint. The developed methodology can be used to predict the probability of a mission being completed, given information about the components used to build the robots, as well as information about the mission tasks. In the research for this innovation, sample robot missions were examined and compared to the performance of robot teams with different numbers of robots and different numbers of spare components. Data that a mission designer would need was factored in, such as whether it would be better to have a spare robot versus an equivalent number of spare parts, or if mission cost can be reduced while maintaining reliability using spares. This analytical model was applied to an example robot mission, examining the cost-reliability tradeoffs among different team configurations. Particularly scrutinized were teams using either redundancy (spare robots) or repairability (spare components). Using conservative estimates of the cost-reliability relationship, results show that it is possible to significantly reduce the cost of a robotic mission by using cheaper, lower-reliability components and providing spares. This suggests that the

  9. Adaptive Response Surface Techniques in Reliability Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, I.; Faber, M. H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1993-01-01

    Problems in connection with estimation of the reliability of a component modelled by a limit state function including noise or first order discontinuitics are considered. A gradient free adaptive response surface algorithm is developed. The algorithm applies second order polynomial surfaces...

  10. MEASUREMENT: ACCOUNTING FOR RELIABILITY IN PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterman, Brian; Sutter, Robert; Burroughs, Thomas; Dunagan, W Claiborne

    2014-01-01

    When evaluating physician performance measures, physician leaders are faced with the quandary of determining whether departures from expected physician performance measurements represent a true signal or random error. This uncertainty impedes the physician leader's ability and confidence to take appropriate performance improvement actions based on physician performance measurements. Incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurement is a valuable way of reducing the impact of random error in the measurements, such as those caused by small sample sizes. Consequently, the physician executive has more confidence that the results represent true performance and is positioned to make better physician performance improvement decisions. Applying reliability adjustment to physician-level performance data is relatively new. As others have noted previously, it's important to keep in mind that reliability adjustment adds significant complexity to the production, interpretation and utilization of results. Furthermore, the methods explored in this case study only scratch the surface of the range of available Bayesian methods that can be used for reliability adjustment; further study is needed to test and compare these methods in practice and to examine important extensions for handling specialty-specific concerns (e.g., average case volumes, which have been shown to be important in cardiac surgery outcomes). Moreover, it's important to note that the provider group average as a basis for shrinkage is one of several possible choices that could be employed in practice and deserves further exploration in future research. With these caveats, our results demonstrate that incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurements is feasible and can notably reduce the incidence of "real" signals relative to what one would expect to see using more traditional approaches. A physician leader who is interested in catalyzing performance improvement

  11. Reliability of Estimation Pile Load Capacity Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yudhi Lastiasih

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available None of numerous previous methods for predicting pile capacity is known how accurate any of them are when compared with the actual ultimate capacity of piles tested to failure. The author’s of the present paper have conducted such an analysis, based on 130 data sets of field loading tests. Out of these 130 data sets, only 44 could be analysed, of which 15 were conducted until the piles actually reached failure. The pile prediction methods used were: Brinch Hansen’s method (1963, Chin’s method (1970, Decourt’s Extrapolation Method (1999, Mazurkiewicz’s method (1972, Van der Veen’s method (1953, and the Quadratic Hyperbolic Method proposed by Lastiasih et al. (2012. It was obtained that all the above methods were sufficiently reliable when applied to data from pile loading tests that loaded to reach failure. However, when applied to data from pile loading tests that loaded without reaching failure, the methods that yielded lower values for correction factor N are more recommended. Finally, the empirical method of Reese and O’Neill (1988 was found to be reliable enough to be used to estimate the Qult of a pile foundation based on soil data only.

  12. Reliability of Bluetooth Technology for Travel Time Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Olesen, Jonas Hammershøj; Krishnan, Rajesh

    2015-01-01

    . However, their corresponding impacts on accuracy and reliability of estimated travel time have not been evaluated. In this study, a controlled field experiment is conducted to collect both Bluetooth and GPS data for 1000 trips to be used as the basis for evaluation. Data obtained by GPS logger is used...... to calculate actual travel time, referred to as ground truth, and to geo-code the Bluetooth detection events. In this setting, reliability is defined as the percentage of devices captured per trip during the experiment. It is found that, on average, Bluetooth-enabled devices will be detected 80% of the time......-range antennae detect Bluetooth-enabled devices in a closer location to the sensor, thus providing a more accurate travel time estimate. However, the smaller the size of the detection zone, the lower the penetration rate, which could itself influence the accuracy of estimates. Therefore, there has to be a trade...

  13. Methodology for uranium resource estimates and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchfield, D.M.

    1980-01-01

    The NURE uranium assessment method has evolved from a small group of geologists estimating resources on a few lease blocks, to a national survey involving an interdisciplinary system consisting of the following: (1) geology and geologic analogs; (2) engineering and cost modeling; (3) mathematics and probability theory, psychology and elicitation of subjective judgments; and (4) computerized calculations, computer graphics, and data base management. The evolution has been spurred primarily by two objectives; (1) quantification of uncertainty, and (2) elimination of simplifying assumptions. This has resulted in a tremendous data-gathering effort and the involvement of hundreds of technical experts, many in uranium geology, but many from other fields as well. The rationality of the methods is still largely based on the concept of an analog and the observation that the results are reasonable. The reliability, or repeatability, of the assessments is reasonably guaranteed by the series of peer and superior technical reviews which has been formalized under the current methodology. The optimism or pessimism of individual geologists who make the initial assessments is tempered by the review process, resulting in a series of assessments which are a consistent, unbiased reflection of the facts. Despite the many improvements over past methods, several objectives for future development remain, primarily to reduce subjectively in utilizing factual information in the estimation of endowment, and to improve the recognition of cost uncertainties in the assessment of economic potential. The 1980 NURE assessment methodology will undoubtly be improved, but the reader is reminded that resource estimates are and always will be a forecast for the future

  14. Lower bounds to the reliabilities of factor score estimators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hessen, D.J.

    2017-01-01

    Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone’s factor score estimators, Bartlett’s factor score

  15. Lower Bounds to the Reliabilities of Factor Score Estimators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessen, David J

    2016-10-06

    Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators, Bartlett's factor score estimators, and McDonald's factor score estimators are derived and conditions are given under which these lower bounds are equal. The relative performance of the derived lower bounds is studied using classic example data sets. The results show that estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators are greater than or equal to the estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Bartlett's and McDonald's factor score estimators.

  16. Influences on and Limitations of Classical Test Theory Reliability Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Margery E.

    It is incorrect to say "the test is reliable" because reliability is a function not only of the test itself, but of many factors. The present paper explains how different factors affect classical reliability estimates such as test-retest, interrater, internal consistency, and equivalent forms coefficients. Furthermore, the limits of classical test…

  17. Estimation of structural reliability under combined loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinozuka, M.; Kako, T.; Hwang, H.; Brown, P.; Reich, M.

    1983-01-01

    For the overall safety evaluation of seismic category I structures subjected to various load combinations, a quantitative measure of the structural reliability in terms of a limit state probability can be conveniently used. For this purpose, the reliability analysis method for dynamic loads, which has recently been developed by the authors, was combined with the existing standard reliability analysis procedure for static and quasi-static loads. The significant parameters that enter into the analysis are: the rate at which each load (dead load, accidental internal pressure, earthquake, etc.) will occur, its duration and intensity. All these parameters are basically random variables for most of the loads to be considered. For dynamic loads, the overall intensity is usually characterized not only by their dynamic components but also by their static components. The structure considered in the present paper is a reinforced concrete containment structure subjected to various static and dynamic loads such as dead loads, accidental pressure, earthquake acceleration, etc. Computations are performed to evaluate the limit state probabilities under each load combination separately and also under all possible combinations of such loads

  18. Reliability Estimation for Digital Instrument/Control System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Yaguang; Sydnor, Russell

    2011-01-01

    Digital instrumentation and controls (DI and C) systems are widely adopted in various industries because of their flexibility and ability to implement various functions that can be used to automatically monitor, analyze, and control complicated systems. It is anticipated that the DI and C will replace the traditional analog instrumentation and controls (AI and C) systems in all future nuclear reactor designs. There is an increasing interest for reliability and risk analyses for safety critical DI and C systems in regulatory organizations, such as The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Developing reliability models and reliability estimation methods for digital reactor control and protection systems will involve every part of the DI and C system, such as sensors, signal conditioning and processing components, transmission lines and digital communication systems, D/A and A/D converters, computer system, signal processing software, control and protection software, power supply system, and actuators. Some of these components are hardware, such as sensors and actuators, their failure mechanisms are well understood, and the traditional reliability model and estimation methods can be directly applied. But many of these components are firmware which has software embedded in the hardware, and software needs special consideration because its failure mechanism is unique, and the reliability estimation method for a software system will be different from the ones used for hardware systems. In this paper, we will propose a reliability estimation method for the entire DI and C system reliability using a recently developed software reliability estimation method and a traditional hardware reliability estimation method

  19. Reliability Estimation for Digital Instrument/Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yaguang; Sydnor, Russell [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C. (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Digital instrumentation and controls (DI and C) systems are widely adopted in various industries because of their flexibility and ability to implement various functions that can be used to automatically monitor, analyze, and control complicated systems. It is anticipated that the DI and C will replace the traditional analog instrumentation and controls (AI and C) systems in all future nuclear reactor designs. There is an increasing interest for reliability and risk analyses for safety critical DI and C systems in regulatory organizations, such as The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Developing reliability models and reliability estimation methods for digital reactor control and protection systems will involve every part of the DI and C system, such as sensors, signal conditioning and processing components, transmission lines and digital communication systems, D/A and A/D converters, computer system, signal processing software, control and protection software, power supply system, and actuators. Some of these components are hardware, such as sensors and actuators, their failure mechanisms are well understood, and the traditional reliability model and estimation methods can be directly applied. But many of these components are firmware which has software embedded in the hardware, and software needs special consideration because its failure mechanism is unique, and the reliability estimation method for a software system will be different from the ones used for hardware systems. In this paper, we will propose a reliability estimation method for the entire DI and C system reliability using a recently developed software reliability estimation method and a traditional hardware reliability estimation method.

  20. Estimation of structural reliability under combined loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinozuka, M.; Kako, T.; Hwang, H.; Brown, P.; Reich, M.

    1983-01-01

    For the overall safety evaluation of seismic category I structures subjected to various load combinations, a quantitative measure of the structural reliability in terms of a limit state probability can be conveniently used. For this purpose, the reliability analysis method for dynamic loads, which has recently been developed by the authors, was combined with the existing standard reliability analysis procedure for static and quasi-static loads. The significant parameters that enter into the analysis are: the rate at which each load (dead load, accidental internal pressure, earthquake, etc.) will occur, its duration and intensity. All these parameters are basically random variables for most of the loads to be considered. For dynamic loads, the overall intensity is usually characterized not only by their dynamic components but also by their static components. The structure considered in the present paper is a reinforced concrete containment structure subjected to various static and dynamic loads such as dead loads, accidental pressure, earthquake acceleration, etc. Computations are performed to evaluate the limit state probabilities under each load combination separately and also under all possible combinations of such loads. Indeed, depending on the limit state condition to be specified, these limit state probabilities can indicate which particular load combination provides the dominant contribution to the overall limit state probability. On the other hand, some of the load combinations contribute very little to the overall limit state probability. These observations provide insight into the complex problem of which load combinations must be considered for design, for which limit states and at what level of limit state probabilities. (orig.)

  1. Estimation of the Reliability of Plastic Slabs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pirzada, G. B. : Ph.D.

    In this thesis, work related to fundamental conditions has been extended to non-fundamental or the general case of probabilistic analysis. Finally, using the ss-unzipping technique a door has been opened to system reliability analysis of plastic slabs. An attempt has been made in this thesis...... to give a probabilistic treatment of plastic slabs which is parallel to the deterministic and systematic treatment of plastic slabs by Nielsen (3). The fundamental reason is that in Nielsen (3) the treatment is based on a deterministic modelling of the basic material properties for the reinforced...

  2. Neglect Of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rózsás Árpád

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Parameter estimation uncertainty is often neglected in reliability studies, i.e. point estimates of distribution parameters are used for representative fractiles, and in probabilistic models. A numerical example examines the effect of this uncertainty on structural reliability using Bayesian statistics. The study reveals that the neglect of parameter estimation uncertainty might lead to an order of magnitude underestimation of failure probability.

  3. Reliability estimation of semi-Markov systems: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouhbi, Brahim; Limnios, Nikolaos

    1997-01-01

    In this article, we are concerned with the estimation of the reliability and the availability of a turbo-generator rotor using a set of data observed in a real engineering situation provided by Electricite De France (EDF). The rotor is modeled by a semi-Markov process, which is used to estimate the rotor's reliability and availability. To do this, we present a method for estimating the semi-Markov kernel from a censored data

  4. Reliabilities of genomic estimated breeding values in Danish Jersey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Guldbrandtsen, Bernt; Su, Guosheng

    2012-01-01

    In order to optimize the use of genomic selection in breeding plans, it is essential to have reliable estimates of the genomic breeding values. This study investigated reliabilities of direct genomic values (DGVs) in the Jersey population estimated by three different methods. The validation methods...... were (i) fivefold cross-validation and (ii) validation on the most recent 3 years of bulls. The reliability of DGV was assessed using squared correlations between DGV and deregressed proofs (DRPs). In the recent 3-year validation model, estimated reliabilities were also used to assess the reliabilities...... of DGV. The data set consisted of 1003 Danish Jersey bulls with conventional estimated breeding values (EBVs) for 14 different traits included in the Nordic selection index. The bulls were genotyped for Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers using the Illumina 54 K chip. A Bayesian method was used...

  5. Software Estimation: Developing an Accurate, Reliable Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    based and size-based estimates is able to accurately plan, launch, and execute on schedule. Bob Sinclair, NAWCWD Chris Rickets , NAWCWD Brad Hodgins...Office by Carnegie Mellon University. SMPSP and SMTSP are service marks of Carnegie Mellon University. 1. Rickets , Chris A, “A TSP Software Maintenance...Life Cycle”, CrossTalk, March, 2005. 2. Koch, Alan S, “TSP Can Be the Building blocks for CMMI”, CrossTalk, March, 2005. 3. Hodgins, Brad, Rickets

  6. A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ESTIMATION METHOD TO NUCLEAR SAFETY SOFTWARE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEE-YONG PARK

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A method for estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed in this paper. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM, where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Two types of modeling schemes based on a particular underlying method are proposed in order to more precisely estimate and predict the number of software defects based on very rare software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating software test cases as a covariate into the model. It was identified that these models are capable of reasonably estimating the remaining number of software defects which directly affects the reactor trip functions. The software reliability might be estimated from these modeling equations, and one approach of obtaining software reliability value is proposed in this paper.

  7. Basics of Bayesian reliability estimation from attribute test data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F. Jr.; Waller, R.A.

    1975-10-01

    The basic notions of Bayesian reliability estimation from attribute lifetest data are presented in an introductory and expository manner. Both Bayesian point and interval estimates of the probability of surviving the lifetest, the reliability, are discussed. The necessary formulas are simply stated, and examples are given to illustrate their use. In particular, a binomial model in conjunction with a beta prior model is considered. Particular attention is given to the procedure for selecting an appropriate prior model in practice. Empirical Bayes point and interval estimates of reliability are discussed and examples are given. 7 figures, 2 tables

  8. Reliability of fish size estimates obtained from multibeam imaging sonar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hightower, Joseph E.; Magowan, Kevin J.; Brown, Lori M.; Fox, Dewayne A.

    2013-01-01

    Multibeam imaging sonars have considerable potential for use in fisheries surveys because the video-like images are easy to interpret, and they contain information about fish size, shape, and swimming behavior, as well as characteristics of occupied habitats. We examined images obtained using a dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) multibeam sonar for Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus, striped bass Morone saxatilis, white perch M. americana, and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus of known size (20–141 cm) to determine the reliability of length estimates. For ranges up to 11 m, percent measurement error (sonar estimate – total length)/total length × 100 varied by species but was not related to the fish's range or aspect angle (orientation relative to the sonar beam). Least-square mean percent error was significantly different from 0.0 for Atlantic sturgeon (x̄  =  −8.34, SE  =  2.39) and white perch (x̄  = 14.48, SE  =  3.99) but not striped bass (x̄  =  3.71, SE  =  2.58) or channel catfish (x̄  = 3.97, SE  =  5.16). Underestimating lengths of Atlantic sturgeon may be due to difficulty in detecting the snout or the longer dorsal lobe of the heterocercal tail. White perch was the smallest species tested, and it had the largest percent measurement errors (both positive and negative) and the lowest percentage of images classified as good or acceptable. Automated length estimates for the four species using Echoview software varied with position in the view-field. Estimates tended to be low at more extreme azimuthal angles (fish's angle off-axis within the view-field), but mean and maximum estimates were highly correlated with total length. Software estimates also were biased by fish images partially outside the view-field and when acoustic crosstalk occurred (when a fish perpendicular to the sonar and at relatively close range is detected in the side lobes of adjacent beams). These sources of

  9. IRT-Estimated Reliability for Tests Containing Mixed Item Formats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Lianghua; Schwarz, Richard D.

    2014-01-01

    As a global measure of precision, item response theory (IRT) estimated reliability is derived for four coefficients (Cronbach's a, Feldt-Raju, stratified a, and marginal reliability). Models with different underlying assumptions concerning test-part similarity are discussed. A detailed computational example is presented for the targeted…

  10. A Latent Class Approach to Estimating Test-Score Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Ark, L. Andries; van der Palm, Daniel W.; Sijtsma, Klaas

    2011-01-01

    This study presents a general framework for single-administration reliability methods, such as Cronbach's alpha, Guttman's lambda-2, and method MS. This general framework was used to derive a new approach to estimating test-score reliability by means of the unrestricted latent class model. This new approach is the latent class reliability…

  11. Processes and Procedures for Estimating Score Reliability and Precision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardhoshi, Gerta; Erford, Bradley T.

    2017-01-01

    Precision is a key facet of test development, with score reliability determined primarily according to the types of error one wants to approximate and demonstrate. This article identifies and discusses several primary forms of reliability estimation: internal consistency (i.e., split-half, KR-20, a), test-retest, alternate forms, interscorer, and…

  12. User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, David M.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Rifkin, Adam

    1992-01-01

    The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

  13. Estimation of some stochastic models used in reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huovinen, T.

    1989-04-01

    The work aims to study the estimation of some stochastic models used in reliability engineering. In reliability engineering continuous probability distributions have been used as models for the lifetime of technical components. We consider here the following distributions: exponential, 2-mixture exponential, conditional exponential, Weibull, lognormal and gamma. Maximum likelihood method is used to estimate distributions from observed data which may be either complete or censored. We consider models based on homogeneous Poisson processes such as gamma-poisson and lognormal-poisson models for analysis of failure intensity. We study also a beta-binomial model for analysis of failure probability. The estimators of the parameters for three models are estimated by the matching moments method and in the case of gamma-poisson and beta-binomial models also by maximum likelihood method. A great deal of mathematical or statistical problems that arise in reliability engineering can be solved by utilizing point processes. Here we consider the statistical analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes to describe the failing phenomena of a set of components with a Weibull intensity function. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the Weibull model. A common cause failure can seriously reduce the reliability of a system. We consider a binomial failure rate (BFR) model as an application of the marked point processes for modelling common cause failure in a system. The parameters of the binomial failure rate model are estimated with the maximum likelihood method

  14. Investigation of MLE in nonparametric estimation methods of reliability function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Won; Kim, Yoon Ik; Chung, Chang Hyun; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2001-01-01

    There have been lots of trials to estimate a reliability function. In the ESReDA 20 th seminar, a new method in nonparametric way was proposed. The major point of that paper is how to use censored data efficiently. Generally there are three kinds of approach to estimate a reliability function in nonparametric way, i.e., Reduced Sample Method, Actuarial Method and Product-Limit (PL) Method. The above three methods have some limits. So we suggest an advanced method that reflects censored information more efficiently. In many instances there will be a unique maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of an unknown parameter, and often it may be obtained by the process of differentiation. It is well known that the three methods generally used to estimate a reliability function in nonparametric way have maximum likelihood estimators that are uniquely exist. So, MLE of the new method is derived in this study. The procedure to calculate a MLE is similar just like that of PL-estimator. The difference of the two is that in the new method, the mass (or weight) of each has an influence of the others but the mass in PL-estimator not

  15. Case Study: Zutphen : Estimates of levee system reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roscoe, K.; Kothuis, Baukje; Kok, Matthijs

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of levee system reliability can conflict with experience and intuition. For example, a very high failure probability may be computed while no evidence of failure has been observed, or a very low failure probability when signs of failure have been detected.

  16. A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doguc, Ozge; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

    2009-01-01

    This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples

  17. A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doguc, Ozge [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: jmarquez@stevens.edu

    2009-02-15

    This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples.

  18. An integrated approach to estimate storage reliability with initial failures based on E-Bayesian estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yongjin; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Shitao; Wang, Jiamei; Zhang, Yanjun

    2017-01-01

    Storage reliability that measures the ability of products in a dormant state to keep their required functions is studied in this paper. For certain types of products, Storage reliability may not always be 100% at the beginning of storage, unlike the operational reliability, which exist possible initial failures that are normally neglected in the models of storage reliability. In this paper, a new integrated technique, the non-parametric measure based on the E-Bayesian estimates of current failure probabilities is combined with the parametric measure based on the exponential reliability function, is proposed to estimate and predict the storage reliability of products with possible initial failures, where the non-parametric method is used to estimate the number of failed products and the reliability at each testing time, and the parameter method is used to estimate the initial reliability and the failure rate of storage product. The proposed method has taken into consideration that, the reliability test data of storage products containing the unexamined before and during the storage process, is available for providing more accurate estimates of both the initial failure probability and the storage failure probability. When storage reliability prediction that is the main concern in this field should be made, the non-parametric estimates of failure numbers can be used into the parametric models for the failure process in storage. In the case of exponential models, the assessment and prediction method for storage reliability is presented in this paper. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the method. Furthermore, a detailed comparison between the proposed and traditional method, for examining the rationality of assessment and prediction on the storage reliability, is investigated. The results should be useful for planning a storage environment, decision-making concerning the maximum length of storage, and identifying the production quality. - Highlights:

  19. Computer Model to Estimate Reliability Engineering for Air Conditioning Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afrah Al-Bossly, A.; El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.

    2012-01-01

    Reliability engineering is used to predict the performance and optimize design and maintenance of air conditioning systems. Air conditioning systems are expose to a number of failures. The failures of an air conditioner such as turn on, loss of air conditioner cooling capacity, reduced air conditioning output temperatures, loss of cool air supply and loss of air flow entirely can be due to a variety of problems with one or more components of an air conditioner or air conditioning system. Forecasting for system failure rates are very important for maintenance. This paper focused on the reliability of the air conditioning systems. Statistical distributions that were commonly applied in reliability settings: the standard (2 parameter) Weibull and Gamma distributions. After distributions parameters had been estimated, reliability estimations and predictions were used for evaluations. To evaluate good operating condition in a building, the reliability of the air conditioning system that supplies conditioned air to the several The company's departments. This air conditioning system is divided into two, namely the main chilled water system and the ten air handling systems that serves the ten departments. In a chilled-water system the air conditioner cools water down to 40-45 degree F (4-7 degree C). The chilled water is distributed throughout the building in a piping system and connected to air condition cooling units wherever needed. Data analysis has been done with support a computer aided reliability software, this is due to the Weibull and Gamma distributions indicated that the reliability for the systems equal to 86.012% and 77.7% respectively. A comparison between the two important families of distribution functions, namely, the Weibull and Gamma families was studied. It was found that Weibull method performed for decision making.

  20. Reliability Estimation of the Pultrusion Process Using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baran, Ismet; Tutum, Cem Celal; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2013-01-01

    In the present study the reliability estimation of the pultrusion process of a flat plate is analyzed by using the first order reliability method (FORM). The implementation of the numerical process model is validated by comparing the deterministic temperature and cure degree profiles...... with corresponding analyses in the literature. The centerline degree of cure at the exit (CDOCE) being less than a critical value and the maximum composite temperature (Tmax) during the process being greater than a critical temperature are selected as the limit state functions (LSFs) for the FORM. The cumulative...

  1. Automation of reliability evaluation procedures through CARE - The computer-aided reliability estimation program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, F. P.

    1972-01-01

    Description of an on-line interactive computer program called CARE (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) which can model self-repair and fault-tolerant organizations and perform certain other functions. Essentially CARE consists of a repository of mathematical equations defining the various basic redundancy schemes. These equations, under program control, are then interrelated to generate the desired mathematical model to fit the architecture of the system under evaluation. The mathematical model is then supplied with ground instances of its variables and is then evaluated to generate values for the reliability-theoretic functions applied to the model.

  2. Zadoff-Chu coded ultrasonic signal for accurate range estimation

    KAUST Repository

    AlSharif, Mohammed H.

    2017-11-02

    This paper presents a new adaptation of Zadoff-Chu sequences for the purpose of range estimation and movement tracking. The proposed method uses Zadoff-Chu sequences utilizing a wideband ultrasonic signal to estimate the range between two devices with very high accuracy and high update rate. This range estimation method is based on time of flight (TOF) estimation using cyclic cross correlation. The system was experimentally evaluated under different noise levels and multi-user interference scenarios. For a single user, the results show less than 7 mm error for 90% of range estimates in a typical indoor environment. Under the interference from three other users, the 90% error was less than 25 mm. The system provides high estimation update rate allowing accurate tracking of objects moving with high speed.

  3. Zadoff-Chu coded ultrasonic signal for accurate range estimation

    KAUST Repository

    AlSharif, Mohammed H.; Saad, Mohamed; Siala, Mohamed; Ballal, Tarig; Boujemaa, Hatem; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new adaptation of Zadoff-Chu sequences for the purpose of range estimation and movement tracking. The proposed method uses Zadoff-Chu sequences utilizing a wideband ultrasonic signal to estimate the range between two devices with very high accuracy and high update rate. This range estimation method is based on time of flight (TOF) estimation using cyclic cross correlation. The system was experimentally evaluated under different noise levels and multi-user interference scenarios. For a single user, the results show less than 7 mm error for 90% of range estimates in a typical indoor environment. Under the interference from three other users, the 90% error was less than 25 mm. The system provides high estimation update rate allowing accurate tracking of objects moving with high speed.

  4. Modelling and estimating degradation processes with application in structural reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiquet, J.

    2007-06-01

    The characteristic level of degradation of a given structure is modeled through a stochastic process called the degradation process. The random evolution of the degradation process is governed by a differential system with Markovian environment. We put the associated reliability framework by considering the failure of the structure once the degradation process reaches a critical threshold. A closed form solution of the reliability function is obtained thanks to Markov renewal theory. Then, we build an estimation methodology for the parameters of the stochastic processes involved. The estimation methods and the theoretical results, as well as the associated numerical algorithms, are validated on simulated data sets. Our method is applied to the modelling of a real degradation mechanism, known as crack growth, for which an experimental data set is considered. (authors)

  5. Reliance on and Reliability of the Engineer’s Estimate in Heavy Civil Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Okere

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available To the contractor, the engineer’s estimate is the target number to aim for, and the basis for a contractor to evaluate the accuracy of their estimate. To the owner, the engineer’s estimate is the basis for funding, evaluation of bids, and for predicting project costs. As such the engineer’s estimate is the benchmark. This research sought to investigate the reliance on, and the reliability of the engineer’s estimate in heavy civil cost estimate. The research objective was to characterize the engineer’s estimate and allow owners and contractors re-evaluate or affirm their reliance on the engineer’s estimate. A literature review was conducted to understand the reliance on the engineer’s estimate, and secondary data from Washington State Department of Transportation was used to investigate the reliability of the engineer’s estimate. The findings show the need for practitioners to re-evaluate their reliance on the engineer’s estimate. The empirical data showed that, within various contexts, the engineer’s estimate fell outside the expected accuracy range of the low bids or the cost to complete projects. The study recommends direct tracking of costs by project owners while projects are under construction, the use of a second estimate to improve the accuracy of their estimates, and use of the cost estimating practices found in highly reputable construction companies.

  6. Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tee, Kong Fah; Khan, Lutfor Rahman; Li, Hongshuang

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction

  7. Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 2. Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

    1984-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 2 provides detailed procedures for using the techniques, detailed descriptions of the analyses performed to evaluate the techniques, and HEP estimates generated as part of this project. The results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. Judgments were shown to be consistent and to provide HEP estimates with a good degree of convergent validity. Of the two techniques tested, direct numerical estimation appears to be preferable in terms of ease of application and quality of results

  8. KERNELHR: A program for estimating animal home ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaman, D.E.; Griffith, B.; Powell, R.A.

    1998-01-01

    Kernel methods are state of the art for estimating animal home-range area and utilization distribution (UD). The KERNELHR program was developed to provide researchers and managers a tool to implement this extremely flexible set of methods with many variants. KERNELHR runs interactively or from the command line on any personal computer (PC) running DOS. KERNELHR provides output of fixed and adaptive kernel home-range estimates, as well as density values in a format suitable for in-depth statistical and spatial analyses. An additional package of programs creates contour files for plotting in geographic information systems (GIS) and estimates core areas of ranges.

  9. Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

    2003-01-01

    A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been

  10. A note on reliability estimation of functionally diverse systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Littlewood, B.; Popov, P.; Strigini, L.

    1999-01-01

    It has been argued that functional diversity might be a plausible means of claiming independence of failures between two versions of a system. We present a model of functional diversity, in the spirit of earlier models of diversity such as those of Eckhardt and Lee, and Hughes. In terms of the model, we show that the claims for independence between functionally diverse systems seem rather unrealistic. Instead, it seems likely that functionally diverse systems will exhibit positively correlated failures, and thus will be less reliable than an assumption of independence would suggest. The result does not, of course, suggest that functional diversity is not worthwhile; instead, it places upon the evaluator of such a system the onus to estimate the degree of dependence so as to evaluate the reliability of the system

  11. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  12. Estimating range of influence in case of missing spatial data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bihrmann, Kristine; Ersbøll, Annette Kjær

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The range of influence refers to the average distance between locations at which the observed outcome is no longer correlated. In many studies, missing data occur and a popular tool for handling missing data is multiple imputation. The objective of this study was to investigate how...... the estimated range of influence is affected when 1) the outcome is only observed at some of a given set of locations, and 2) multiple imputation is used to impute the outcome at the non-observed locations. METHODS: The study was based on the simulation of missing outcomes in a complete data set. The range...... of influence was estimated from a logistic regression model with a spatially structured random effect, modelled by a Gaussian field. Results were evaluated by comparing estimates obtained from complete, missing, and imputed data. RESULTS: In most simulation scenarios, the range estimates were consistent...

  13. Realized range-based estimation of integrated variance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Kim; Podolskij, Mark

    2007-01-01

    We provide a set of probabilistic laws for estimating the quadratic variation of continuous semimartingales with the realized range-based variance-a statistic that replaces every squared return of the realized variance with a normalized squared range. If the entire sample path of the process is a...

  14. Battery electric vehicle energy consumption modelling for range estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, J.; Besselink, I.J.M.; Nijmeijer, H.

    2017-01-01

    Range anxiety is considered as one of the major barriers to the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). One method to solve this problem is to provide accurate range estimation to the driver. This paper describes a vehicle energy consumption model considering the influence of weather

  15. Availability and Reliability of FSO Links Estimated from Visibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tatarko

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on estimation availability and reliability of FSO systems. Shortcut FSO means Free Space Optics. It is a system which allows optical transmission between two steady points. We can say that it is a last mile communication system. It is an optical communication system, but the propagation media is air. This solution of last mile does not require expensive optical fiber and establishing of connection is very simple. But there are some drawbacks which have a bad influence of quality of services and availability of the link. Number of phenomena in the atmosphere such as scattering, absorption and turbulence cause a large variation of receiving optical power and laser beam attenuation. The influence of absorption and turbulence can be significantly reduced by an appropriate design of FSO link. But the visibility has the main influence on quality of the optical transmission channel. Thus, in typical continental area where rain, snow or fog occurs is important to know their values. This article gives a description of device for measuring weather conditions and information about estimation of availability and reliability of FSO links in Slovakia.

  16. Validity and reliability of using photography for measuring knee range of motion: a methodological study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adie Sam

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The clinimetric properties of knee goniometry are essential to appreciate in light of its extensive use in the orthopaedic and rehabilitative communities. Intra-observer reliability is thought to be satisfactory, but the validity and inter-rater reliability of knee goniometry often demonstrate unacceptable levels of variation. This study tests the validity and reliability of measuring knee range of motion using goniometry and photographic records. Methods Design: Methodology study assessing the validity and reliability of one method ('Marker Method' which uses a skin marker over the greater trochanter and another method ('Line of Femur Method' which requires estimation of the line of femur. Setting: Radiology and orthopaedic departments of two teaching hospitals. Participants: 31 volunteers (13 arthritic and 18 healthy subjects. Knee range of motion was measured radiographically and photographically using a goniometer. Three assessors were assessed for reliability and validity. Main outcomes: Agreement between methods and within raters was assessed using concordance correlation coefficient (CCCs. Agreement between raters was assessed using intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs. 95% limits of agreement for the mean difference for all paired comparisons were computed. Results Validity (referenced to radiographs: Each method for all 3 raters yielded very high CCCs for flexion (0.975 to 0.988, and moderate to substantial CCCs for extension angles (0.478 to 0.678. The mean differences and 95% limits of agreement were narrower for flexion than they were for extension. Intra-rater reliability: For flexion and extension, very high CCCs were attained for all 3 raters for both methods with slightly greater CCCs seen for flexion (CCCs varied from 0.981 to 0.998. Inter-rater reliability: For both methods, very high ICCs (min to max: 0.891 to 0.995 were obtained for flexion and extension. Slightly higher coefficients were obtained

  17. Global stereo matching algorithm based on disparity range estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Zhao, Hong; Gu, Feifei

    2017-09-01

    The global stereo matching algorithms are of high accuracy for the estimation of disparity map, but the time-consuming in the optimization process still faces a curse, especially for the image pairs with high resolution and large baseline setting. To improve the computational efficiency of the global algorithms, a disparity range estimation scheme for the global stereo matching is proposed to estimate the disparity map of rectified stereo images in this paper. The projective geometry in a parallel binocular stereo vision is investigated to reveal a relationship between two disparities at each pixel in the rectified stereo images with different baselines, which can be used to quickly obtain a predicted disparity map in a long baseline setting estimated by that in the small one. Then, the drastically reduced disparity ranges at each pixel under a long baseline setting can be determined by the predicted disparity map. Furthermore, the disparity range estimation scheme is introduced into the graph cuts with expansion moves to estimate the precise disparity map, which can greatly save the cost of computing without loss of accuracy in the stereo matching, especially for the dense global stereo matching, compared to the traditional algorithm. Experimental results with the Middlebury stereo datasets are presented to demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

  18. Assessment of the Maximal Split-Half Coefficient to Estimate Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Barry L.; Green, Samuel B.; Yang, Yanyun

    2010-01-01

    The maximal split-half coefficient is computed by calculating all possible split-half reliability estimates for a scale and then choosing the maximal value as the reliability estimate. Osburn compared the maximal split-half coefficient with 10 other internal consistency estimates of reliability and concluded that it yielded the most consistently…

  19. Using Elementary Mechanics to Estimate the Maximum Range of ICBMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Joseph

    2018-04-01

    North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and, more recently, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has added a grave threat to world order. The threat presented by these weapons depends critically on missile range, i.e., the ability to reach North America or Europe while carrying a nuclear warhead. Using the limited information available from near-vertical test flights, how do arms control experts estimate the maximum range of an ICBM? The purpose of this paper is to show, using mathematics and concepts appropriate to a first-year calculus-based mechanics class, how a missile's range can be estimated from the (observable) altitude attained during its test flights. This topic—while grim—affords an ideal opportunity to show students how the application of basic physical principles can inform and influence public policy. For students who are already familiar with Kepler's laws, it should be possible to present in a single class period.

  20. Numerical Model based Reliability Estimation of Selective Laser Melting Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohanty, Sankhya; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2014-01-01

    Selective laser melting is developing into a standard manufacturing technology with applications in various sectors. However, the process is still far from being at par with conventional processes such as welding and casting, the primary reason of which is the unreliability of the process. While...... of the selective laser melting process. A validated 3D finite-volume alternating-direction-implicit numerical technique is used to model the selective laser melting process, and is calibrated against results from single track formation experiments. Correlation coefficients are determined for process input...... parameters such as laser power, speed, beam profile, etc. Subsequently, uncertainties in the processing parameters are utilized to predict a range for the various outputs, using a Monte Carlo method based uncertainty analysis methodology, and the reliability of the process is established....

  1. Reliability Estimation for Single-unit Ceramic Crown Restorations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekesiz, H.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of a survival prediction method for the assessment of ceramic dental restorations. For this purpose, fast-fracture and fatigue reliabilities for 2 bilayer (metal ceramic alloy core veneered with fluorapatite leucite glass-ceramic, d.Sign/d.Sign-67, by Ivoclar; glass-infiltrated alumina core veneered with feldspathic porcelain, VM7/In-Ceram Alumina, by Vita) and 3 monolithic (leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic, Empress, and ProCAD, by Ivoclar; lithium-disilicate glass-ceramic, Empress 2, by Ivoclar) single posterior crown restorations were predicted, and fatigue predictions were compared with the long-term clinical data presented in the literature. Both perfectly bonded and completely debonded cases were analyzed for evaluation of the influence of the adhesive/restoration bonding quality on estimations. Material constants and stress distributions required for predictions were calculated from biaxial tests and finite element analysis, respectively. Based on the predictions, In-Ceram Alumina presents the best fast-fracture resistance, and ProCAD presents a comparable resistance for perfect bonding; however, ProCAD shows a significant reduction of resistance in case of complete debonding. Nevertheless, it is still better than Empress and comparable with Empress 2. In-Ceram Alumina and d.Sign have the highest long-term reliability, with almost 100% survivability even after 10 years. When compared with clinical failure rates reported in the literature, predictions show a promising match with clinical data, and this indicates the soundness of the settings used in the proposed predictions. PMID:25048249

  2. Reliability of stellar inclination estimated from asteroseismology: analytical criteria, mock simulations and Kepler data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiaka, Shoya; Benomar, Othman; Suto, Yasushi

    2018-05-01

    Advances in asteroseismology of solar-like stars, now provide a unique method to estimate the stellar inclination i⋆. This enables to evaluate the spin-orbit angle of transiting planetary systems, in a complementary fashion to the Rossiter-McLaughlineffect, a well-established method to estimate the projected spin-orbit angle λ. Although the asteroseismic method has been broadly applied to the Kepler data, its reliability has yet to be assessed intensively. In this work, we evaluate the accuracy of i⋆ from asteroseismology of solar-like stars using 3000 simulated power spectra. We find that the low signal-to-noise ratio of the power spectra induces a systematic under-estimate (over-estimate) bias for stars with high (low) inclinations. We derive analytical criteria for the reliable asteroseismic estimate, which indicates that reliable measurements are possible in the range of 20° ≲ i⋆ ≲ 80° only for stars with high signal-to-noise ratio. We also analyse and measure the stellar inclination of 94 Kepler main-sequence solar-like stars, among which 33 are planetary hosts. According to our reliability criteria, a third of them (9 with planets, 22 without) have accurate stellar inclination. Comparison of our asteroseismic estimate of vsin i⋆ against spectroscopic measurements indicates that the latter suffers from a large uncertainty possibly due to the modeling of macro-turbulence, especially for stars with projected rotation speed vsin i⋆ ≲ 5km/s. This reinforces earlier claims, and the stellar inclination estimated from the combination of measurements from spectroscopy and photometric variation for slowly rotating stars needs to be interpreted with caution.

  3. 1/f noise as a reliability estimation for solar panels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alabedra, R.; Orsal, B.

    The purpose of this work is a study of the 1/f noise from a forward biased dark solar cell as a nondestructive reliability estimation of solar panels. It is shown that one cell with a given defect can be detected in a solar panel by low frequency noise measurements at obscurity. One real solar panel of 5 cells in parallel and 5 cells in series is tested by this method. The cells for space application are n(+)p monocrystalline silicon junction with an area of 8 sq cm and a base resistivity of 10 ohm/cm. In the first part of this paper the I-V, Rd=f(1) characteristics of one cell or of a panel are not modified when a small defect is introduced by a mechanical constraint. In the second part, the theoretical results on the 1/f noise in a p-n junction under forward bias are recalled. It is shown that the noise of the cell with a defect is about 10 to 15 times higher than that of a good cell. If one good cell is replaced by a cell with defect in the panel 5 x 5, this leads to an increase of about 30 percent of the noise level of the panel.

  4. Stochastic calculus analysis of optical time-of-flight range imaging and estimation of radial motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streeter, Lee

    2017-07-01

    Time-of-flight range imaging is analyzed using stochastic calculus. Through a series of interpretations and simplifications, the stochastic model leads to two methods for estimating linear radial velocity: maximum likelihood estimation on the transition probability distribution between measurements, and a new method based on analyzing the measured correlation waveform and its first derivative. The methods are tested in a simulated motion experiment from (-40)-(+40)  m/s, with data from a camera imaging an object on a translation stage. In tests maximum likelihood is slow and unreliable, but when it works it estimates the linear velocity with standard deviation of 1 m/s or better. In comparison the new method is fast and reliable but works in a reduced velocity range of (-20)-(+20)  m/s with standard deviation ranging from 3.5 m/s to 10 m/s.

  5. Reliability: How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction, the (net) present value of reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, J.H.; Marais, K.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, we link an engineering concept, reliability, to a financial and managerial concept, net present value, by exploring the impact of a system's reliability on its revenue generation capability. The framework here developed for non-repairable systems quantitatively captures the value of reliability from a financial standpoint. We show that traditional present value calculations of engineering systems do not account for system reliability, thus over-estimate a system's worth and can therefore lead to flawed investment decisions. It is therefore important to involve reliability engineers upfront before investment decisions are made in technical systems. In addition, the analyses here developed help designers identify the optimal level of reliability that maximizes a system's net present value-the financial value reliability provides to the system minus the cost to achieve this level of reliability. Although we recognize that there are numerous considerations driving the specification of an engineering system's reliability, we contend that the financial analysis of reliability here developed should be made available to decision-makers to support in part, or at least be factored into, the system reliability specification

  6. Three methods for estimating a range of vehicular interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krbálek, Milan; Apeltauer, Jiří; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Szabová, Zuzana

    2018-02-01

    We present three different approaches how to estimate the number of preceding cars influencing a decision-making procedure of a given driver moving in saturated traffic flows. The first method is based on correlation analysis, the second one evaluates (quantitatively) deviations from the main assumption in the convolution theorem for probability, and the third one operates with advanced instruments of the theory of counting processes (statistical rigidity). We demonstrate that universally-accepted premise on short-ranged traffic interactions may not be correct. All methods introduced have revealed that minimum number of actively-followed vehicles is two. It supports an actual idea that vehicular interactions are, in fact, middle-ranged. Furthermore, consistency between the estimations used is surprisingly credible. In all cases we have found that the interaction range (the number of actively-followed vehicles) drops with traffic density. Whereas drivers moving in congested regimes with lower density (around 30 vehicles per kilometer) react on four or five neighbors, drivers moving in high-density flows respond to two predecessors only.

  7. Reliable Multicast MAC Protocol for IEEE 802.11 Wireless LANs with Extended Service Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Woo-Yong

    2011-11-01

    In this paper, we propose the efficient reliable multicast MAC protocol by which the AP (Access Point) can transmit reliably its multicast data frames to the recipients in the AP's one-hop or two-hop transmission range. The AP uses the STAs (Stations) that are directly associated with itself as the relays for the data delivery to the remote recipients that cannot be reached directly from itself. Based on the connectivity information among the recipients, the reliable multicast MAC protocol optimizes the number of the RAK (Request for ACK) frame transmissions in a reasonable computational time. Numerical examples show that our proposed MAC protocol significantly enhances the MAC performance compared with the BMMM (Batch Mode Multicast MAC) protocol that is extended to support the recipients that are in the AP's one-hop or two-hop transmission range in IEEE 802.11 wireless LANs.

  8. Range estimates of whale signals recorded by triplets of hydrophones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bras, R. J.; Nielsen, P.

    2017-12-01

    The International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization includes a hydroacoustic network as one of the monitoring technologies. The underwater part of this network includes six stations and is now complete with the recent installation of the HA04 station located in the Southern Ocean island of Crozet (France). A large number of calls emanating from marine mammals are recorded by the hydrophones, and we present examples where the animals are sufficiently close that a range estimate can be attempted. We also present examples of scattered arrivals and related interpretations.

  9. Detection Range Estimation of UV Spectral Band Laser Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Gorodnichev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, has come into existence an interest in the systems operating in the ultra-violet (UF band of wavelengths, which use other spectral information (coefficients of reflection or radiation in UF range about location objects, than laser systems in the visible, near or average infrared bands. Thus, a point is not only to receive additional (in another spectral range information on location objects. Laser radiation in the UF spectral band of 0.315 – 0.4 microns is safer than laser radiation with the wavelengths of 0.38 – 1.4 microns.The work presents a comparative estimation of the detection systems range of laser radars in the UV and visible spectral bands for the following wavelengths of radiation:- UF band: 0.266 microns (the fourth harmonic of YAG-laser activated by neodymium ions, 0.308 microns (the XeCl-excimer laser, 0.355 microns (the third harmonic of YAG-laser activated by neodymium ions;- visible band: 0.532 microns (the second harmonic of YAG-laser activated by neodymium ions.Results of calculations show that for the horizontal pathway in the terrestrial atmosphere at the selected radiation wavelengths a detection range is in the range of 2510m – 5690 m.The maximum range of detection corresponds to the visible spectral band. A sweep range decreases with transition to the UF band. This is caused by the fact that with transition to the UF band there is a rise of atmosphere attenuation (generally, because of absorption by ozone, this effect being smoothed by reducing background radiation.In the UF band a wavelength of 0.355 microns is the most acceptable. For this wavelength a detection range is about 1,5 times less (in comparison with the visible band of 0.532 microns. However, this is the much more eye-safe wavelength. With transition to the UV band a detection range decreases not that much and can be compensated by changing parameters of transmitting or receiving channels of laser radar.

  10. Estimation of reliability of a interleaving PFC boost converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulam Amer Sandepudi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliability plays an important role in power supplies. For other electronic equipment, a certain failure mode, at least for a part of the total system, can often be employed without serious (critical effects. However, for power supply no such condition can be accepted, since very high demands on its reliability must be achieved. At higher power levels, the continuous conduction mode (CCM boost converter is preferred topology for implementation a front end with PFC. As a result, significant efforts have been made to improve the performance of high boost converter. This paper is one of the efforts for improving the performance of the converter from the reliability point of view. In this paper, interleaving boost power factor correction converter is simulated with single switch in continuous conduction mode (CCM, discontinuous conduction mode (DCM and critical conduction mode (CRM under different output power ratings. Results of the converter are explored from reliability point of view.

  11. Reliability estimation for check valves and other components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McElhaney, K.L.; Staunton, R.H.

    1996-01-01

    For years the nuclear industry has depended upon component operational reliability information compiled from reliability handbooks and other generic sources as well as private databases generated by recognized experts both within and outside the nuclear industry. Regrettably, these technical bases lacked the benefit of large-scale operational data and comprehensive data verification, and did not take into account the parameters and combinations of parameters that affect the determination of failure rates. This paper briefly examines the historic use of generic component reliability data, its sources, and its limitations. The concept of using a single failure rate for a particular component type is also examined. Particular emphasis is placed on check valves due to the information available on those components. The Appendix presents some of the results of the extensive analyses done by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on check valve performance

  12. Fuel economy and range estimates for fuel cell powered automobiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinbugler, M.; Ogden, J. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    1996-12-31

    While a number of automotive fuel cell applications have been demonstrated, including a golf cart, buses, and a van, these systems and others that have been proposed have utilized differing configurations ranging from direct hydrogen fuel cell-only power plants to fuel cell/battery hybrids operating on reformed methanol. To date there is no clear consensus on which configuration, from among the possible combinations of fuel cell, peaking device, and fuel type, is the most likely to be successfully commercialized. System simplicity favors direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, but infrastructure is lacking. Infrastructure favors a system using a liquid fuel with a fuel processor, but system integration and performance issues remain. A number of studies have analyzed particular configurations on either a system or vehicle scale. The objective of this work is to estimate, within a consistent framework, fuel economies and ranges for a variety of configurations using flexible models with the goal of identifying the most promising configurations and the most important areas for further research and development.

  13. A Survey of Software Reliability Modeling and Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-09-01

    considered include: the Jelinski-Moranda Model, the ,Geometric Model,’ and Musa’s Model. A Monte -Carlo study of the behavior of the ’V"’"*least squares...ceedings Number 261, 1979, pp. 34-1, 34-11. IoelAmrit, AGieboSSukert, Alan and Goel, Ararat , "A Guidebookfor Software Reliability Assessment, 1980

  14. Evaluation and reliability of bone histological age estimation methods

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Human age estimation at death plays a vital role in forensic anthropology and bioarchaeology. Researchers used morphological and histological methods to estimate human age from their skeletal remains. This paper discussed different histological methods that used human long bones and ribs to determine age ...

  15. Reliability estimate of unconfined compressive strength of black cotton soil stabilized with cement and quarry dust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dayo Oluwatoyin AKANBI

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Reliability estimates of unconfined compressive strength values from laboratory results for specimens compacted at British Standard Light (BSLfor compacted quarry dust treated black cotton soil using cement for road sub – base material was developed by incorporating data obtained from Unconfined compressive strength (UCS test gotten from the laboratory test to produce a predictive model. Data obtained were incorporated into a FORTRAN-based first-order reliability program to obtain reliability index values. Variable factors such as water content relative to optimum (WRO, hydraulic modulus (HM, quarry dust (QD, cement (C, Tri-Calcium silicate (C3S, Di-calcium silicate (C2S, Tri-Calcium Aluminate (C3A, and maximum dry density (MDD produced acceptable safety index value of1.0and they were achieved at coefficient of variation (COV ranges of 10-100%. Observed trends indicate that WRO, C3S, C2S and MDD are greatly influenced by the COV and therefore must be strictly controlled in QD/C treated black cotton soil for use as sub-base material in road pavements. Stochastically, British Standard light (BSL can be used to model the 7 days unconfined compressive strength of compacted quarry dust/cement treated black cotton soil as a sub-base material for road pavement at all coefficient of variation (COV range 10 – 100% because the safety index obtained are higher than the acceptable 1.0 value.

  16. Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fariborz M. Tehrani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimate, including modeling errors and inherent variability. Sample projects are highway maintenance projects with a similar scope of the work, size, and schedule. Statistical analysis of engineering estimates and bids examines the adaptability of statistical models for sample projects. Further, the variation of engineering cost estimates from inception to implementation has been presented and discussed for selected projects. Moreover, the applicability of extreme values theory is assessed for available data. The results indicate that the performance of engineer’s estimate is best evaluated based on trimmed average of bids, excluding discordant bids.

  17. Reliability estimates for selected sensors in fusion applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1996-09-01

    This report presents the results of a study to define several types of sensors in use, the qualitative reliability (failure modes) and quantitative reliability (average failure rates) for these types of process sensors. Temperature, pressure, flow, and level sensors are discussed for water coolant and for cryogenic coolants. The failure rates that have been found are useful for risk assessment and safety analysis. Repair times and calibration intervals are also given when found in the literature. All of these values can also be useful to plant operators and maintenance personnel. Designers may be able to make use of these data when planning systems. The final chapter in this report discusses failure rates for several types of personnel safety sensors, including ionizing radiation monitors, toxic and combustible gas detectors, humidity sensors, and magnetic field sensors. These data could be useful to industrial hygienists and other safety professionals when designing or auditing for personnel safety

  18. Sensitivity of Reliability Estimates in Partially Damaged RC Structures subject to Earthquakes, using Reduced Hysteretic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.

    The subject of the paper is the investigation of the sensitivity of structural reliability estimation by a reduced hysteretic model for a reinforced concrete frame under an earthquake excitation.......The subject of the paper is the investigation of the sensitivity of structural reliability estimation by a reduced hysteretic model for a reinforced concrete frame under an earthquake excitation....

  19. Reliability and precision of pellet-group counts for estimating landscape-level deer density

    Science.gov (United States)

    David S. deCalesta

    2013-01-01

    This study provides hitherto unavailable methodology for reliably and precisely estimating deer density within forested landscapes, enabling quantitative rather than qualitative deer management. Reliability and precision of the deer pellet-group technique were evaluated in 1 small and 2 large forested landscapes. Density estimates, adjusted to reflect deer harvest and...

  20. Alternative Estimates of the Reliability of College Grade Point Averages. Professional File. Article 130, Spring 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saupe, Joe L.; Eimers, Mardy T.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore differences in the reliabilities of cumulative college grade point averages (GPAs), estimated for unweighted and weighted, one-semester, 1-year, 2-year, and 4-year GPAs. Using cumulative GPAs for a freshman class at a major university, we estimate internal consistency (coefficient alpha) reliabilities for…

  1. On estimation of reliability for pipe lines of heat power plants under cyclic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verezemskij, V.G.

    1986-01-01

    One of the possible methods to obtain a quantitative estimate of the reliability for pipe lines of the welded heat power plants under cyclic loading due to heating-cooling and due to vibration is considered. Reliability estimate is carried out for a common case of loading by simultaneous cycles with different amplitudes and loading asymmetry. It is shown that scattering of the breaking number of cycles for the metal of welds may perceptibly decrease reliability of the welded pipe line

  2. Ion range estimation by using dual energy computed tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huenemohr, Nora; Greilich, Steffen [German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg (Germany). Medical Physics in Radiation Oncology; Krauss, Bernhard [Siemens AG, Forchheim (Germany). Imaging and Therapy; Dinkel, Julien [German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg (Germany). Radiology; Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA (United States). Radiology; Gillmann, Clarissa [German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg (Germany). Medical Physics in Radiation Oncology; University Hospital Heidelberg (Germany). Radiation Oncology; Ackermann, Benjamin [Heidelberg Ion-Beam Therapy Center (HIT), Heidelberg (Germany); Jaekel, Oliver [German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg (Germany). Medical Physics in Radiation Oncology; Heidelberg Ion-Beam Therapy Center (HIT), Heidelberg (Germany); University Hospital Heidelberg (Germany). Radiation Oncology

    2013-07-01

    Inaccurate conversion of CT data to water-equivalent path length (WEPL) is one of the most important uncertainty sources in ion treatment planning. Dual energy CT (DECT) imaging might help to reduce CT number ambiguities with the additional information. In our study we scanned a series of materials (tissue substitutes, aluminum, PMMA, and other polymers) in the dual source scanner (Siemens Somatom Definition Flash). Based on the 80 kVp/140Sn kVp dual energy images, the electron densities Q{sub e} and effective atomic numbers Z{sub eff} were calculated. We introduced a new lookup table that translates the Q{sub e} to the WEPL. The WEPL residuals from the calibration were significantly reduced for the investigated tissue surrogates compared to the empirical Hounsfield-look-up table (single energy CT imaging) from (-1.0 {+-} 1.8)% to (0.1 {+-} 0.7)% and for non-tissue equivalent PMMA from -7.8% to -1.0%. To assess the benefit of the new DECT calibration, we conducted a treatment planning study for three different idealized cases based on tissue surrogates and PMMA. The DECT calibration yielded a significantly higher target coverage in tissue surrogates and phantom material (i.e. PMMA cylinder, mean target coverage improved from 62% to 98%). To verify the DECT calibration for real tissue, ion ranges through a frozen pig head were measured and compared to predictions calculated by the standard single energy CT calibration and the novel DECT calibration. By using this method, an improvement of ion range estimation from -2.1% water-equivalent thickness deviation (single energy CT) to 0.3% (DECT) was achieved. If one excludes raypaths located on the edge of the sample accompanied with high uncertainties, no significant difference could be observed. (orig.)

  3. Approximate estimation of system reliability via fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutuit, Y.; Rauzy, A.

    2005-01-01

    In this article, we show how fault tree analysis, carried out by means of binary decision diagrams (BDD), is able to approximate reliability of systems made of independent repairable components with a good accuracy and a good efficiency. We consider four algorithms: the Murchland lower bound, the Barlow-Proschan lower bound, the Vesely full approximation and the Vesely asymptotic approximation. For each of these algorithms, we consider an implementation based on the classical minimal cut sets/rare events approach and another one relying on the BDD technology. We present numerical results obtained with both approaches on various examples

  4. Estimating the reliability of eyewitness identifications from police lineups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wixted, John T; Mickes, Laura; Dunn, John C; Clark, Steven E; Wells, William

    2016-01-12

    Laboratory-based mock crime studies have often been interpreted to mean that (i) eyewitness confidence in an identification made from a lineup is a weak indicator of accuracy and (ii) sequential lineups are diagnostically superior to traditional simultaneous lineups. Largely as a result, juries are increasingly encouraged to disregard eyewitness confidence, and up to 30% of law enforcement agencies in the United States have adopted the sequential procedure. We conducted a field study of actual eyewitnesses who were assigned to simultaneous or sequential photo lineups in the Houston Police Department over a 1-y period. Identifications were made using a three-point confidence scale, and a signal detection model was used to analyze and interpret the results. Our findings suggest that (i) confidence in an eyewitness identification from a fair lineup is a highly reliable indicator of accuracy and (ii) if there is any difference in diagnostic accuracy between the two lineup formats, it likely favors the simultaneous procedure.

  5. Empirical Study of Travel Time Estimation and Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ruimin; Chai, Huajun; Tang, Jin

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the travel time distribution of different types of urban roads, the link and path average travel time, and variance estimation methods by analyzing the large-scale travel time dataset detected from automatic number plate readers installed throughout Beijing. The results show that the best-fitting travel time distribution for different road links in 15 min time intervals differs for different traffic congestion levels. The average travel time for all links on all days can b...

  6. Statistical estimation Monte Carlo for unreliability evaluation of highly reliable system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Gang; Su Guanghui; Jia Dounan; Li Tianduo

    2000-01-01

    Based on analog Monte Carlo simulation, statistical Monte Carlo methods for unreliable evaluation of highly reliable system are constructed, including direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo method and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo method. The basal element is given, and the statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimators are derived. Direct Monte Carlo simulation method, bounding-sampling method, forced transitions Monte Carlo method, direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo are used to evaluate unreliability of a same system. By comparing, weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimator has smallest variance, and has highest calculating efficiency

  7. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  8. Rigorous home range estimation with movement data: a new autocorrelated kernel density estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, C H; Fagan, W F; Mueller, T; Olson, K A; Leimgruber, P; Calabrese, J M

    2015-05-01

    Quantifying animals' home ranges is a key problem in ecology and has important conservation and wildlife management applications. Kernel density estimation (KDE) is a workhorse technique for range delineation problems that is both statistically efficient and nonparametric. KDE assumes that the data are independent and identically distributed (IID). However, animal tracking data, which are routinely used as inputs to KDEs, are inherently autocorrelated and violate this key assumption. As we demonstrate, using realistically autocorrelated data in conventional KDEs results in grossly underestimated home ranges. We further show that the performance of conventional KDEs actually degrades as data quality improves, because autocorrelation strength increases as movement paths become more finely resolved. To remedy these flaws with the traditional KDE method, we derive an autocorrelated KDE (AKDE) from first principles to use autocorrelated data, making it perfectly suited for movement data sets. We illustrate the vastly improved performance of AKDE using analytical arguments, relocation data from Mongolian gazelles, and simulations based upon the gazelle's observed movement process. By yielding better minimum area estimates for threatened wildlife populations, we believe that future widespread use of AKDE will have significant impact on ecology and conservation biology.

  9. Estimating the Parameters of Software Reliability Growth Models Using the Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Alaa F. Sheta; Amal Abdel-Raouf

    2016-01-01

    In this age of technology, building quality software is essential to competing in the business market. One of the major principles required for any quality and business software product for value fulfillment is reliability. Estimating software reliability early during the software development life cycle saves time and money as it prevents spending larger sums fixing a defective software product after deployment. The Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) can be used to predict the number of...

  10. Fault-tolerant embedded system design and optimization considering reliability estimation uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wattanapongskorn, Naruemon; Coit, David W.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we model embedded system design and optimization, considering component redundancy and uncertainty in the component reliability estimates. The systems being studied consist of software embedded in associated hardware components. Very often, component reliability values are not known exactly. Therefore, for reliability analysis studies and system optimization, it is meaningful to consider component reliability estimates as random variables with associated estimation uncertainty. In this new research, the system design process is formulated as a multiple-objective optimization problem to maximize an estimate of system reliability, and also, to minimize the variance of the reliability estimate. The two objectives are combined by penalizing the variance for prospective solutions. The two most common fault-tolerant embedded system architectures, N-Version Programming and Recovery Block, are considered as strategies to improve system reliability by providing system redundancy. Four distinct models are presented to demonstrate the proposed optimization techniques with or without redundancy. For many design problems, multiple functionally equivalent software versions have failure correlation even if they have been independently developed. The failure correlation may result from faults in the software specification, faults from a voting algorithm, and/or related faults from any two software versions. Our approach considers this correlation in formulating practical optimization models. Genetic algorithms with a dynamic penalty function are applied in solving this optimization problem, and reasonable and interesting results are obtained and discussed

  11. Reference ranges and reliability of transabdominal ultrasonographic renal dimensions in thoroughbred horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, Alexandra C E; Bowen, I Mark; Hallowell, Gayle D

    2012-01-01

    The aims of this study were to establish a normal reference range (mean ± 2 SD) and assess reliability of renal dimensions obtained using transabdominal ultrasonography in Thoroughbred horses (n = 7). A minimum of three ultrasonographic cineloops were obtained from each intercostal space and the left paralumbar fossa by two observers daily for three consecutive days. Renal length, width, and thickness and cortex, medulla, and pelvic dimensions were obtained. Measurements were undertaken by both observers, who were unaware of prior measurements, to assess reproducibility and measured on three separate occasions to evaluate short-term measurement repeatability. Measurements from images obtained by both operators were compared to evaluate image repeatability. The left kidney was consistently identified in the left 15th-17th intercostal space and the paralumbar fossa with maximal length in the 16th intercostal space (12.7 ± 2.0 cm) and maximal width in the paralumbar fossa (7.9 ± 1.1 cm). The right kidney was consistently identified in the right 15th-17th intercostal space with maximal length and maximal width in the 15th intercostal space (16.0 ± 0.7 cm and 7.9 ± 1.0 cm). Reproducibility, image repeatability, measurement repeatability were good to excellent, although were less good for the smaller structures. There were no differences in renal dimensions between horses. Overall renal ultrasonography was reliable and a normal reference range for Thoroughbred horses was established. Renal dimensions vary between rib spaces. As repeatability and reproducibility were excellent for renal length and width, it may be prudent to use those measurements in rib spaces where parameters were maximal. © 2011 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound.

  12. Reliability/Cost Evaluation on Power System connected with Wind Power for the Reserve Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Go-Eun; Cha, Seung-Tae; Shin, Je-Seok

    2012-01-01

    Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

  13. An adaptive neuro fuzzy model for estimating the reliability of component-based software systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirti Tyagi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Although many algorithms and techniques have been developed for estimating the reliability of component-based software systems (CBSSs, much more research is needed. Accurate estimation of the reliability of a CBSS is difficult because it depends on two factors: component reliability and glue code reliability. Moreover, reliability is a real-world phenomenon with many associated real-time problems. Soft computing techniques can help to solve problems whose solutions are uncertain or unpredictable. A number of soft computing approaches for estimating CBSS reliability have been proposed. These techniques learn from the past and capture existing patterns in data. The two basic elements of soft computing are neural networks and fuzzy logic. In this paper, we propose a model for estimating CBSS reliability, known as an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, that is based on these two basic elements of soft computing, and we compare its performance with that of a plain FIS (fuzzy inference system for different data sets.

  14. Point Cloud Based Relative Pose Estimation of a Satellite in Close Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lujiang Liu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Determination of the relative pose of satellites is essential in space rendezvous operations and on-orbit servicing missions. The key problems are the adoption of suitable sensor on board of a chaser and efficient techniques for pose estimation. This paper aims to estimate the pose of a target satellite in close range on the basis of its known model by using point cloud data generated by a flash LIDAR sensor. A novel model based pose estimation method is proposed; it includes a fast and reliable pose initial acquisition method based on global optimal searching by processing the dense point cloud data directly, and a pose tracking method based on Iterative Closest Point algorithm. Also, a simulation system is presented in this paper in order to evaluate the performance of the sensor and generate simulated sensor point cloud data. It also provides truth pose of the test target so that the pose estimation error can be quantified. To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and achievable pose accuracy, numerical simulation experiments are performed; results demonstrate algorithm capability of operating with point cloud directly and large pose variations. Also, a field testing experiment is conducted and results show that the proposed method is effective.

  15. Using Elementary Mechanics to Estimate the Maximum Range of ICBMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Joseph

    2018-01-01

    North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and, more recently, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has added a grave threat to world order. The threat presented by these weapons depends critically on missile range, i.e., the ability to reach North America or Europe while carrying a nuclear warhead. Using the limited information available…

  16. Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

    2012-11-01

    Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Reliance on and Reliability of the Engineer’s Estimate in Heavy Civil Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Okere, George

    2017-01-01

    To the contractor, the engineer’s estimate is the target number to aim for, and the basis for a contractor to evaluate the accuracy of their estimate. To the owner, the engineer’s estimate is the basis for funding, evaluation of bids, and for predicting project costs. As such the engineer’s estimate is the benchmark. This research sought to investigate the reliance on, and the reliability of the engineer’s estimate in heavy civil cost estimate. The research objective was to characterize the e...

  18. An Energy-Based Limit State Function for Estimation of Structural Reliability in Shock Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Guthrie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available limit state function is developed for the estimation of structural reliability in shock environments. This limit state function uses peak modal strain energies to characterize environmental severity and modal strain energies at failure to characterize the structural capacity. The Hasofer-Lind reliability index is briefly reviewed and its computation for the energy-based limit state function is discussed. Applications to two degree of freedom mass-spring systems and to a simple finite element model are considered. For these examples, computation of the reliability index requires little effort beyond a modal analysis, but still accounts for relevant uncertainties in both the structure and environment. For both examples, the reliability index is observed to agree well with the results of Monte Carlo analysis. In situations where fast, qualitative comparison of several candidate designs is required, the reliability index based on the proposed limit state function provides an attractive metric which can be used to compare and control reliability.

  19. Root biomass in cereals, catch crops and weeds can be reliably estimated without considering aboveground biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Teng; Sørensen, Peter; Wahlström, Ellen Margrethe

    2018-01-01

    and management factors may affect this allometric relationship making such estimates uncertain and biased. Therefore, we aimed to explore how root biomass for typical cereal crops, catch crops and weeds could most reliably be estimated. Published and unpublished data on aboveground and root biomass (corrected...

  20. Parameter estimation of component reliability models in PSA model of Krsko NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Vrbanic, I.

    2001-01-01

    In the paper, the uncertainty analysis of component reliability models for independent failures is shown. The present approach for parameter estimation of component reliability models in NPP Krsko is presented. Mathematical approaches for different types of uncertainty analyses are introduced and used in accordance with some predisposed requirements. Results of the uncertainty analyses are shown in an example for time-related components. As the most appropriate uncertainty analysis proved the Bayesian estimation with the numerical estimation of a posterior, which can be approximated with some appropriate probability distribution, in this paper with lognormal distribution.(author)

  1. Cochlear function tests in estimation of speech dynamic range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jung Ju; Park, So Young; Park, Shi Nae; Na, Mi Sun; Lee, Philip; Han, Jae Sang

    2016-10-01

    The loss of active cochlear mechanics causes elevated thresholds, loudness recruitment, and reduced frequency selectivity. The problems faced by hearing-impaired listeners are largely related with reduced dynamic range (DR). The aim of this study was to determine which index of the cochlear function tests correlates best with the DR to speech stimuli. Audiological data on 516 ears with pure tone average (PTA) of ≤55 dB and word recognition score of ≥70% were analyzed. PTA, speech recognition threshold (SRT), uncomfortable loudness (UCL), and distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) were explored as the indices of cochlear function. Audiometric configurations were classified. Correlation between each index and the DR was assessed and multiple regression analysis was done. PTA and SRT demonstrated strong negative correlations with the DR (r = -0.788 and -0.860, respectively), while DPOAE sum was moderately correlated (r = 0.587). UCLs remained quite constant for the total range of the DR. The regression equation was Y (DR) = 75.238 - 0.719 × SRT (R(2 )=( )0.721, p equation.

  2. Highly reliable wind-rolling triboelectric nanogenerator operating in a wide wind speed range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Hyungseok; Chung, Jihoon; Choi, Dukhyun; Jung, Daewoong; Cho, Minhaeng; Lee, Sangmin

    2016-01-01

    Triboelectric nanogenerators are aspiring energy harvesting methods that generate electricity from the triboelectric effect and electrostatic induction. This study demonstrates the harvesting of wind energy by a wind-rolling triboelectric nanogenerator (WR-TENG). The WR-TENG generates electricity from wind as a lightweight dielectric sphere rotates along the vortex whistle substrate. Increasing the kinetic energy of a dielectric converted from the wind energy is a key factor in fabricating an efficient WR-TENG. Computation fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis is introduced to estimate the precise movements of wind flow and to create a vortex flow by adjusting the parameters of the vortex whistle shape to optimize the design parameters to increase the kinetic energy conversion rate. WR-TENG can be utilized as both a self-powered wind velocity sensor and a wind energy harvester. A single unit of WR-TENG produces open-circuit voltage of 11.2 V and closed-circuit current of 1.86 μA. Additionally, findings reveal that the electrical power is enhanced through multiple electrode patterns in a single device and by increasing the number of dielectric spheres inside WR-TENG. The wind-rolling TENG is a novel approach for a sustainable wind-driven TENG that is sensitive and reliable to wind flows to harvest wasted wind energy in the near future. PMID:27653976

  3. How Many Sleep Diary Entries Are Needed to Reliably Estimate Adolescent Sleep?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Teresa; Gradisar, Michael; Taheri, Shahrad; Carskadon, Mary A.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Study Objectives: To investigate (1) how many nights of sleep diary entries are required for reliable estimates of five sleep-related outcomes (bedtime, wake time, sleep onset latency [SOL], sleep duration, and wake after sleep onset [WASO]) and (2) the test–retest reliability of sleep diary estimates of school night sleep across 12 weeks. Methods: Data were drawn from four adolescent samples (Australia [n = 385], Qatar [n = 245], United Kingdom [n = 770], and United States [n = 366]), who provided 1766 eligible sleep diary weeks for reliability analyses. We performed reliability analyses for each cohort using complete data (7 days), one to five school nights, and one to two weekend nights. We also performed test–retest reliability analyses on 12-week sleep diary data available from a subgroup of 55 US adolescents. Results: Intraclass correlation coefficients for bedtime, SOL, and sleep duration indicated good-to-excellent reliability from five weekday nights of sleep diary entries across all adolescent cohorts. Four school nights was sufficient for wake times in the Australian and UK samples, but not the US or Qatari samples. Only Australian adolescents showed good reliability for two weekend nights of bedtime reports; estimates of SOL were adequate for UK adolescents based on two weekend nights. WASO was not reliably estimated using 1 week of sleep diaries. We observed excellent test–rest reliability across 12 weeks of sleep diary data in a subsample of US adolescents. Conclusion: We recommend at least five weekday nights of sleep dairy entries to be made when studying adolescent bedtimes, SOL, and sleep duration. Adolescent sleep patterns were stable across 12 consecutive school weeks. PMID:28199718

  4. A Data-Driven Reliability Estimation Approach for Phased-Mission Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua-Feng He

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We attempt to address the issues associated with reliability estimation for phased-mission systems (PMS and present a novel data-driven approach to achieve reliability estimation for PMS using the condition monitoring information and degradation data of such system under dynamic operating scenario. In this sense, this paper differs from the existing methods only considering the static scenario without using the real-time information, which aims to estimate the reliability for a population but not for an individual. In the presented approach, to establish a linkage between the historical data and real-time information of the individual PMS, we adopt a stochastic filtering model to model the phase duration and obtain the updated estimation of the mission time by Bayesian law at each phase. At the meanwhile, the lifetime of PMS is estimated from degradation data, which are modeled by an adaptive Brownian motion. As such, the mission reliability can be real time obtained through the estimated distribution of the mission time in conjunction with the estimated lifetime distribution. We demonstrate the usefulness of the developed approach via a numerical example.

  5. Concurrent validity and interrater reliability of a new smartphone application to assess 3D active cervical range of motion in patients with neck pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenneberg, Martijn S; Busstra, Harm; Eskes, Michel; van Trijffel, Emiel; Cattrysse, Erik; Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G M; de Bie, Rob A

    2018-04-01

    There is a lack of valid, reliable, and feasible instruments for measuring planar active cervical range of motion (aCROM) and associated 3D coupling motions in patients with neck pain. Smartphones have advanced sensors and appear to be suitable for these measurements. To estimate the concurrent validity and interrater reliability of a new iPhone application for assessing planar aCROM and associated 3D coupling motions in patients with neck pain, using an electromagnetic tracking device as a reference test. Cross-sectional study. Two samples of neck pain patients were recruited; 30 patients for the validity study and 26 patients for the reliability study. Validity was estimated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), and by calculating 95% limits of agreement (LoA). To estimate interrater reliability, ICCs were calculated. Cervical 3D coupling motions were analyzed by calculating the cross-correlation coefficients and ratio between the main motions and coupled motions for both instruments. ICCs for concurrent validity and interrater reliability ranged from 0.90 to 0.99. The width of the 95% LoA ranged from about 5° for right lateral bending to 11° for total rotation. No significant differences were found between both devices for associated coupling motion analysis. The iPhone application appears to be a useful discriminative tool for the measurement of planar aCROM and associated coupling motions in patients with neck pain. It fulfills the need for a valid, reliable, and feasible instrument in clinical practice and research. Therapists and researchers should consider measurement error when interpreting scores. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Kinematic parameter estimation using close range photogrammetry for sport applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magre Colorado, Luz Alejandra; Martínez Santos, Juan Carlos

    2015-12-01

    In this article, we show the development of a low-cost hardware/software system based on close range photogrammetry to track the movement of a person performing weightlifting. The goal is to reduce the costs to the trainers and athletes dedicated to this sport when it comes to analyze the performance of the sportsman and avoid injuries or accidents. We used a web-cam as the data acquisition hardware and develop the software stack in Processing using the OpenCV library. Our algorithm extracts size, position, velocity, and acceleration measurements of the bar along the course of the exercise. We present detailed characteristics of the system with their results in a controlled setting. The current work improves the detection and tracking capabilities from a previous version of this system by using HSV color model instead of RGB. Preliminary results show that the system is able to profile the movement of the bar as well as determine the size, position, velocity, and acceleration values of a marker/target in scene. The average error finding the size of object at four meters of distance is less than 4%, and the error of the acceleration value is 1.01% in average.

  7. Bayesian and Classical Estimation of Stress-Strength Reliability for Inverse Weibull Lifetime Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qixuan Bi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating stress-strength reliability for inverse Weibull lifetime models having the same shape parameters but different scale parameters. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimator and its asymptotic distribution. Since the classical estimator doesn’t hold explicit forms, we propose an approximate maximum likelihood estimator. The asymptotic confidence interval and two bootstrap intervals are obtained. Using the Gibbs sampling technique, Bayesian estimator and the corresponding credible interval are obtained. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to generate random variates. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the proposed methods. Analysis of a real dataset is performed.

  8. Reliability of single aliquot regenerative protocol (SAR) for dose estimation in quartz at different burial temperatures: A simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koul, D.K.; Pagonis, V.; Patil, P.

    2016-01-01

    The single aliquot regenerative protocol (SAR) is a well-established technique for estimating naturally acquired radiation doses in quartz. This simulation work examines the reliability of SAR protocol for samples which experienced different ambient temperatures in nature in the range of −10 to 40 °C. The contribution of various experimental variables used in SAR protocols to the accuracy and precision of the method is simulated for different ambient temperatures. Specifically the effects of paleo-dose, test dose, pre-heating temperature and cut-heat temperature on the accuracy of equivalent dose (ED) estimation are simulated by using random combinations of the concentrations of traps and centers using a previously published comprehensive quartz model. The findings suggest that the ambient temperature has a significant bearing on the reliability of natural dose estimation using SAR protocol, especially for ambient temperatures above 0 °C. The main source of these inaccuracies seems to be thermal sensitization of the quartz samples caused by the well-known thermal transfer of holes between luminescence centers in quartz. The simulations suggest that most of this inaccuracy in the dose estimation can be removed by delivering the laboratory doses in pulses (pulsed irradiation procedures). - Highlights: • Ambient temperatures affect the reliability of SAR. • It overestimates the dose with increase in burial temperature and burial time periods. • Elevated temperature irradiation does not correct for these overestimations. • Inaccuracies in dose estimation can be removed by incorporating pulsed irradiation procedures.

  9. Estimating Between-Person and Within-Person Subscore Reliability with Profile Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulut, Okan; Davison, Mark L; Rodriguez, Michael C

    2017-01-01

    Subscores are of increasing interest in educational and psychological testing due to their diagnostic function for evaluating examinees' strengths and weaknesses within particular domains of knowledge. Previous studies about the utility of subscores have mostly focused on the overall reliability of individual subscores and ignored the fact that subscores should be distinct and have added value over the total score. This study introduces a profile reliability approach that partitions the overall subscore reliability into within-person and between-person subscore reliability. The estimation of between-person reliability and within-person reliability coefficients is demonstrated using subscores from number-correct scoring, unidimensional and multidimensional item response theory scoring, and augmented scoring approaches via a simulation study and a real data study. The effects of various testing conditions, such as subtest length, correlations among subscores, and the number of subtests, are examined. Results indicate that there is a substantial trade-off between within-person and between-person reliability of subscores. Profile reliability coefficients can be useful in determining the extent to which subscores provide distinct and reliable information under various testing conditions.

  10. Integrated Reliability Estimation of a Nuclear Maintenance Robot including a Software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, Heung Seop; Kim, Jae Hee; Jeong, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    Conventional reliability estimation techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), Markov Model, and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) have been used widely and approved in some industries. Then there are some limitations when we use them for a complicate robot systems including software such as intelligent reactor inspection robots. Therefore an expert's judgment plays an important role in estimating the reliability of a complicate system in practice, because experts can deal with diverse evidence related to the reliability and then perform an inference based on them. The proposed method in this paper combines qualitative and quantitative evidences and performs an inference like experts. Furthermore, it does the work in a formal and in a quantitative way unlike human experts, by the benefits of Bayesian Nets (BNs)

  11. "A Comparison of Consensus, Consistency, and Measurement Approaches to Estimating Interrater Reliability"

    OpenAIRE

    Steven E. Stemler

    2004-01-01

    This article argues that the general practice of describing interrater reliability as a single, unified concept is..at best imprecise, and at worst potentially misleading. Rather than representing a single concept, different..statistical methods for computing interrater reliability can be more accurately classified into one of three..categories based upon the underlying goals of analysis. The three general categories introduced and..described in this paper are: 1) consensus estimates, 2) cons...

  12. Reliability estimation for multiunit nuclear and fossil-fired industrial energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, W.G.; Wilson, J.V.; Klepper, O.H.

    1977-01-01

    As petroleum-based fuels grow increasingly scarce and costly, nuclear energy may become an important alternative source of industrial energy. Initial applications would most likely include a mix of fossil-fired and nuclear sources of process energy. A means for determining the overall reliability of these mixed systems is a fundamental aspect of demonstrating their feasibility to potential industrial users. Reliability data from nuclear and fossil-fired plants are presented, and several methods of applying these data for calculating the reliability of reasonably complex industrial energy supply systems are given. Reliability estimates made under a number of simplifying assumptions indicate that multiple nuclear units or a combination of nuclear and fossil-fired plants could provide adequate reliability to meet industrial requirements for continuity of service

  13. Reliability estimation system: its application to the nuclear geophysical sampling of ore deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khaykovich, I.M.; Savosin, S.I.

    1992-01-01

    The reliability estimation system accepted in the Soviet Union for sampling data in nuclear geophysics is based on unique requirements in metrology and methodology. It involves estimating characteristic errors in calibration, as well as errors in measurement and interpretation. This paper describes the methods of estimating the levels of systematic and random errors at each stage of the problem. The data of nuclear geophysics sampling are considered to be reliable if there are no statistically significant, systematic differences between ore intervals determined by this method and by geological control, or by other methods of sampling; the reliability of the latter having been verified. The difference between the random errors is statistically insignificant. The system allows one to obtain information on the parameters of ore intervals with a guaranteed random error and without systematic errors. (Author)

  14. Stochastic models and reliability parameter estimation applicable to nuclear power plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitra, S.P.

    1979-01-01

    A set of stochastic models and related estimation schemes for reliability parameters are developed. The models are applicable for evaluating reliability of nuclear power plant systems. Reliability information is extracted from model parameters which are estimated from the type and nature of failure data that is generally available or could be compiled in nuclear power plants. Principally, two aspects of nuclear power plant reliability have been investigated: (1) The statistical treatment of inplant component and system failure data; (2) The analysis and evaluation of common mode failures. The model inputs are failure data which have been classified as either the time type of failure data or the demand type of failure data. Failures of components and systems in nuclear power plant are, in general, rare events.This gives rise to sparse failure data. Estimation schemes for treating sparse data, whenever necessary, have been considered. The following five problems have been studied: 1) Distribution of sparse failure rate component data. 2) Failure rate inference and reliability prediction from time type of failure data. 3) Analyses of demand type of failure data. 4) Common mode failure model applicable to time type of failure data. 5) Estimation of common mode failures from 'near-miss' demand type of failure data

  15. The relationship between cost estimates reliability and BIM adoption: SEM analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, N. A. A.; Idris, N. H.; Ramli, H.; Rooshdi, R. R. Raja Muhammad; Sahamir, S. R.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents the usage of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach in analysing the effects of Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology adoption in improving the reliability of cost estimates. Based on the questionnaire survey results, SEM analysis using SPSS-AMOS application examined the relationships between BIM-improved information and cost estimates reliability factors, leading to BIM technology adoption. Six hypotheses were established prior to SEM analysis employing two types of SEM models, namely the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) model and full structural model. The SEM models were then validated through the assessment on their uni-dimensionality, validity, reliability, and fitness index, in line with the hypotheses tested. The final SEM model fit measures are: P-value=0.000, RMSEA=0.0790.90, TLI=0.956>0.90, NFI=0.935>0.90 and ChiSq/df=2.259; indicating that the overall index values achieved the required level of model fitness. The model supports all the hypotheses evaluated, confirming that all relationship exists amongst the constructs are positive and significant. Ultimately, the analysis verified that most of the respondents foresee better understanding of project input information through BIM visualization, its reliable database and coordinated data, in developing more reliable cost estimates. They also perceive to accelerate their cost estimating task through BIM adoption.

  16. Efficient Estimation of Extreme Non-linear Roll Motions using the First-order Reliability Method (FORM)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2007-01-01

    In on-board decision support systems efficient procedures are needed for real-time estimation of the maximum ship responses to be expected within the next few hours, given on-line information on the sea state and user defined ranges of possible headings and speeds. For linear responses standard...... frequency domain methods can be applied. To non-linear responses like the roll motion, standard methods like direct time domain simulations are not feasible due to the required computational time. However, the statistical distribution of non-linear ship responses can be estimated very accurately using...... the first-order reliability method (FORM), well-known from structural reliability problems. To illustrate the proposed procedure, the roll motion is modelled by a simplified non-linear procedure taking into account non-linear hydrodynamic damping, time-varying restoring and wave excitation moments...

  17. Estimated Value of Service Reliability for Electric Utility Customers in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, M.J.; Mercurio, Matthew; Schellenberg, Josh

    2009-06-01

    Information on the value of reliable electricity service can be used to assess the economic efficiency of investments in generation, transmission and distribution systems, to strategically target investments to customer segments that receive the most benefit from system improvements, and to numerically quantify the risk associated with different operating, planning and investment strategies. This paper summarizes research designed to provide estimates of the value of service reliability for electricity customers in the US. These estimates were obtained by analyzing the results from 28 customer value of service reliability studies conducted by 10 major US electric utilities over the 16 year period from 1989 to 2005. Because these studies used nearly identical interruption cost estimation or willingness-to-pay/accept methods it was possible to integrate their results into a single meta-database describing the value of electric service reliability observed in all of them. Once the datasets from the various studies were combined, a two-part regression model was used to estimate customer damage functions that can be generally applied to calculate customer interruption costs per event by season, time of day, day of week, and geographical regions within the US for industrial, commercial, and residential customers. Estimated interruption costs for different types of customers and of different duration are provided. Finally, additional research and development designed to expand the usefulness of this powerful database and analysis are suggested.

  18. Feasibility and reliability of digital imaging for estimating food selection and consumption from students' packed lunches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jennifer C; Sutter, Carolyn; Ontai, Lenna L; Nishina, Adrienne; Zidenberg-Cherr, Sheri

    2018-01-01

    Although increasing attention is placed on the quality of foods in children's packed lunches, few studies have examined the capacity of observational methods to reliably determine both what is selected and consumed from these lunches. The objective of this project was to assess the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of digital imaging for determining selection and consumption from students' packed lunches, by adapting approaches previously applied to school lunches. Study 1 assessed feasibility and reliability of data collection among a sample of packed lunches (n = 155), while Study 2 further examined reliability in a larger sample of packed (n = 386) as well as school (n = 583) lunches. Based on the results from Study 1, it was feasible to collect and code most items in packed lunch images; missing data were most commonly attributed to packaging that limited visibility of contents. Across both studies, there was satisfactory reliability for determining food types selected, quantities selected, and quantities consumed in the eight food categories examined (weighted kappa coefficients 0.68-0.97 for packed lunches, 0.74-0.97 for school lunches), with lowest reliability for estimating condiments and meats/meat alternatives in packed lunches. In extending methods predominately applied to school lunches, these findings demonstrate the capacity of digital imaging for the objective estimation of selection and consumption from both school and packed lunches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Reliability of Semiautomated Computational Methods for Estimating Tibiofemoral Contact Stress in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald D. Anderson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent findings suggest that contact stress is a potent predictor of subsequent symptomatic osteoarthritis development in the knee. However, much larger numbers of knees (likely on the order of hundreds, if not thousands need to be reliably analyzed to achieve the statistical power necessary to clarify this relationship. This study assessed the reliability of new semiautomated computational methods for estimating contact stress in knees from large population-based cohorts. Ten knees of subjects from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study were included. Bone surfaces were manually segmented from sequential 1.0 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging slices by three individuals on two nonconsecutive days. Four individuals then registered the resulting bone surfaces to corresponding bone edges on weight-bearing radiographs, using a semi-automated algorithm. Discrete element analysis methods were used to estimate contact stress distributions for each knee. Segmentation and registration reliabilities (day-to-day and interrater for peak and mean medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact stress were assessed with Shrout-Fleiss intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs. The segmentation and registration steps of the modeling approach were found to have excellent day-to-day (ICC 0.93–0.99 and good inter-rater reliability (0.84–0.97. This approach for estimating compartment-specific tibiofemoral contact stress appears to be sufficiently reliable for use in large population-based cohorts.

  20. Solution-verified reliability analysis and design of bistable MEMS using error estimation and adaptivity.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eldred, Michael Scott; Subia, Samuel Ramirez; Neckels, David; Hopkins, Matthew Morgan; Notz, Patrick K.; Adams, Brian M.; Carnes, Brian; Wittwer, Jonathan W.; Bichon, Barron J.; Copps, Kevin D.

    2006-10-01

    This report documents the results for an FY06 ASC Algorithms Level 2 milestone combining error estimation and adaptivity, uncertainty quantification, and probabilistic design capabilities applied to the analysis and design of bistable MEMS. Through the use of error estimation and adaptive mesh refinement, solution verification can be performed in an automated and parameter-adaptive manner. The resulting uncertainty analysis and probabilistic design studies are shown to be more accurate, efficient, reliable, and convenient.

  1. Safeprops: A Software for Fast and Reliable Estimation of Safety and Environmental Properties for Organic Compounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Mark Nicholas; Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens

    We present a new software tool called SAFEPROPS which is able to estimate major safety-related and environmental properties for organic compounds. SAFEPROPS provides accurate, reliable and fast predictions using the Marrero-Gani group contribution (MG-GC) method. It is implemented using Python...... as the main programming language, while the necessary parameters together with their correlation matrix are obtained from a SQLite database which has been populated using off-line parameter and error estimation routines (Eq. 3-8)....

  2. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  3. Sensorless SPMSM Position Estimation Using Position Estimation Error Suppression Control and EKF in Wide Speed Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanshan Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The control of a high performance alternative current (AC motor drive under sensorless operation needs the accurate estimation of rotor position. In this paper, one method of accurately estimating rotor position by using both motor complex number model based position estimation and position estimation error suppression proportion integral (PI controller is proposed for the sensorless control of the surface permanent magnet synchronous motor (SPMSM. In order to guarantee the accuracy of rotor position estimation in the flux-weakening region, one scheme of identifying the permanent magnet flux of SPMSM by extended Kalman filter (EKF is also proposed, which formed the effective combination method to realize the sensorless control of SPMSM with high accuracy. The simulation results demonstrated the validity and feasibility of the proposed position/speed estimation system.

  4. Estimating the Reliability of Aggregated and Within-Person Centered Scores in Ecological Momentary Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Po-Hsien; Weng, Li-Jen

    2012-01-01

    A procedure for estimating the reliability of test scores in the context of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) was proposed to take into account the characteristics of EMA measures. Two commonly used test scores in EMA were considered: the aggregated score (AGGS) and the within-person centered score (WPCS). Conceptually, AGGS and WPCS represent…

  5. Nonparametric Estimation of Interval Reliability for Discrete-Time Semi-Markov Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgiadis, Stylianos; Limnios, Nikolaos

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we consider a repairable discrete-time semi-Markov system with finite state space. The measure of the interval reliability is given as the probability of the system being operational over a given finite-length time interval. A nonparametric estimator is proposed for the interval...

  6. Uncertainty in reliability estimation : when do we know everything we know?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houben, M.J.H.A.; Sonnemans, P.J.M.; Newby, M.J.; Bris, R.; Guedes Soares, C.; Martorell, S.

    2009-01-01

    In this paperwe demonstrate the use of an adapted GroundedTheory approach through interviews and their analysis to determine explicit uncertainty (known unknowns) for reliability estimation in the early phases of product development.We have applied the adapted Grounded Theory approach in a case

  7. Estimating reliability coefficients with heterogeneous item weightings using Stata: A factor based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boermans, M.A.; Kattenberg, M.A.C.

    2011-01-01

    We show how to estimate a Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient in Stata after running a principal component or factor analysis. Alpha evaluates to what extent items measure the same underlying content when the items are combined into a scale or used for latent variable. Stata allows for testing

  8. Can a sample of Landsat sensor scenes reliably estimate the global extent of tropical deforestation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. L. Czaplewski

    2003-01-01

    Tucker and Townshend (2000) conclude that wall-to-wall coverage is needed to avoid gross errors in estimations of deforestation rates' because tropical deforestation is concentrated along roads and rivers. They specifically question the reliability of the 10% sample of Landsat sensor scenes used in the global remote sensing survey conducted by the Food and...

  9. Perceptual and Acoustic Reliability Estimates for the Speech Disorders Classification System (SDCS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shriberg, Lawrence D.; Fourakis, Marios; Hall, Sheryl D.; Karlsson, Heather B.; Lohmeier, Heather L.; McSweeny, Jane L.; Potter, Nancy L.; Scheer-Cohen, Alison R.; Strand, Edythe A.; Tilkens, Christie M.; Wilson, David L.

    2010-01-01

    A companion paper describes three extensions to a classification system for paediatric speech sound disorders termed the Speech Disorders Classification System (SDCS). The SDCS uses perceptual and acoustic data reduction methods to obtain information on a speaker's speech, prosody, and voice. The present paper provides reliability estimates for…

  10. Integration of external estimated breeding values and associated reliabilities using correlations among traits and effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenplas, J.; Colinet, F.G.; Glorieux, G.; Bertozzi, C.; Gengler, N.

    2015-01-01

    Based on a Bayesian view of linear mixed models, several studies showed the possibilities to integrate estimated breeding values (EBV) and associated reliabilities (REL) provided by genetic evaluations performed outside a given evaluation system into this genetic evaluation. Hereafter, the term

  11. Intra- and interobserver reliability of gray scale/dynamic range evaluation of ultrasonography using a standardized phantom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Song; Choi, Joon Il; Park, Michael Yong; Yeo, Dong Myung; Byun, Jae Young; Jung, Seung Eun; Rha, Sung Eun; Oh, Soon Nam; Lee, Young Joon

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate intra- and interobserver reliability of the gray scale/dynamic range of the phantom image evaluation of ultrasonography using a standardized phantom, and to assess the effect of interactive education on the reliability. Three radiologists (a resident, and two board-certified radiologists with 2 and 7 years of experience in evaluating ultrasound phantom images) performed the gray scale/dynamic range test for an ultrasound machine using a standardized phantom. They scored the number of visible cylindrical structures of varying degrees of brightness and made a pass or fail decision. First, they scored 49 phantom images twice from a 2010 survey with limited knowledge of phantom images. After this, the radiologists underwent two hours of interactive education for the phantom images and scored another 91 phantom images from a 2011 survey twice. Intra- and interobserver reliability before and after the interactive education session were analyzed using K analyses. Before education, the K-value for intraobserver reliability for the radiologist with 7 years of experience, 2 years of experience, and the resident was 0.386, 0.469, and 0.465, respectively. After education, the K-values were improved (0.823, 0.611, and 0.711, respectively). For interobserver reliability, the K-value was also better after the education for the 3 participants (0.067, 0.002, and 0.547 before education; 0.635, 0.667, and 0.616 after education, respectively). The intra- and interobserver reliability of the gray scale/dynamic range was fair to substantial. Interactive education can improve reliability. For more reliable results, double- checking of phantom images by multiple reviewers is recommended.

  12. Estimations of parameters in Pareto reliability model in the presence of masked data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarhan, Ammar M.

    2003-01-01

    Estimations of parameters included in the individual distributions of the life times of system components in a series system are considered in this paper based on masked system life test data. We consider a series system of two independent components each has a Pareto distributed lifetime. The maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators for the parameters and the values of the reliability of the system's components at a specific time are obtained. Symmetrical triangular prior distributions are assumed for the unknown parameters to be estimated in obtaining the Bayes estimators of these parameters. Large simulation studies are done in order: (i) explain how one can utilize the theoretical results obtained; (ii) compare the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates obtained of the underlying parameters; and (iii) study the influence of the masking level and the sample size on the accuracy of the estimates obtained

  13. Validity and Reliability of the Brazilian Version of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry--BREALD-30.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junkes, Monica C; Fraiz, Fabian C; Sardenberg, Fernanda; Lee, Jessica Y; Paiva, Saul M; Ferreira, Fernanda M

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to translate, perform the cross-cultural adaptation of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry to Brazilian-Portuguese language and test the reliability and validity of this version. After translation and cross-cultural adaptation, interviews were conducted with 258 parents/caregivers of children in treatment at the pediatric dentistry clinics and health units in Curitiba, Brazil. To test the instrument's validity, the scores of Brazilian Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (BREALD-30) were compared based on occupation, monthly household income, educational attainment, general literacy, use of dental services and three dental outcomes. The BREALD-30 demonstrated good internal reliability. Cronbach's alpha ranged from 0.88 to 0.89 when words were deleted individually. The analysis of test-retest reliability revealed excellent reproducibility (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.983 and Kappa coefficient ranging from moderate to nearly perfect). In the bivariate analysis, BREALD-30 scores were significantly correlated with the level of general literacy (rs = 0.593) and income (rs = 0.327) and significantly associated with occupation, educational attainment, use of dental services, self-rated oral health and the respondent's perception regarding his/her child's oral health. However, only the association between the BREALD-30 score and the respondent's perception regarding his/her child's oral health remained significant in the multivariate analysis. The BREALD-30 demonstrated satisfactory psychometric properties and is therefore applicable to adults in Brazil.

  14. Estimation of the human error probabilities in the human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Haibin; He Xuhong; Tong Jiejuan; Shen Shifei

    2006-01-01

    Human error data is an important issue of human reliability analysis (HRA). Using of Bayesian parameter estimation, which can use multiple information, such as the historical data of NPP and expert judgment data to modify the human error data, could get the human error data reflecting the real situation of NPP more truly. This paper, using the numeric compute program developed by the authors, presents some typical examples to illustrate the process of the Bayesian parameter estimation in HRA and discusses the effect of different modification data on the Bayesian parameter estimation. (authors)

  15. Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baoyu LI

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis, and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain. However, efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved. The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation, whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs. While in fact, structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering, thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method, and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT technique to compute the fractional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations, which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs. The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations. Besides, the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis, which is determined by UT, is really small. Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.

  16. A Simplified Procedure for Reliability Estimation of Underground Concrete Barriers against Normal Missile Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Siddiqui

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Underground concrete barriers are frequently used to protect strategic structures like Nuclear power plants (NPP, deep under the soil against any possible high velocity missile impact. For a given range and type of missile (or projectile it is of paramount importance to examine the reliability of underground concrete barriers under expected uncertainties involved in the missile, concrete, and soil parameters. In this paper, a simple procedure for the reliability assessment of underground concrete barriers against normal missile impact has been presented using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM. The presented procedure is illustrated by applying it to a concrete barrier that lies at a certain depth in the soil. Some parametric studies are also conducted to obtain the design values which make the barrier as reliable as desired.

  17. An automated method for estimating reliability of grid systems using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doguc, Ozge; Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose

    2012-01-01

    Grid computing has become relevant due to its applications to large-scale resource sharing, wide-area information transfer, and multi-institutional collaborating. In general, in grid computing a service requests the use of a set of resources, available in a grid, to complete certain tasks. Although analysis tools and techniques for these types of systems have been studied, grid reliability analysis is generally computation-intensive to obtain due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, conventional reliability models have some common assumptions that cannot be applied to the grid systems. Therefore, new analytical methods are needed for effective and accurate assessment of grid reliability. This study presents a new method for estimating grid service reliability, which does not require prior knowledge about the grid system structure unlike the previous studies. Moreover, the proposed method does not rely on any assumptions about the link and node failure rates. This approach is based on a data-mining algorithm, the K2, to discover the grid system structure from raw historical system data, that allows to find minimum resource spanning trees (MRST) within the grid then, uses Bayesian networks (BN) to model the MRST and estimate grid service reliability.

  18. Confidence Estimation of Reliability Indices of the System with Elements Duplication and Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Pavlov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers a problem to estimate a confidence interval of the main reliability indices such as availability rate, mean time between failures, and operative availability (in the stationary state for the model of the system with duplication and independent recovery of elements.Presents a solution of the problem for a situation that often arises in practice, when there are unknown exact values of the reliability parameters of the elements, and only test data of the system or its individual parts (elements, subsystems for reliability are known. It should be noted that the problems of the confidence estimate of reliability indices of the complex systems based on the testing results of their individual elements are fairly common function in engineering practice when designing and running the various engineering systems. The available papers consider this problem, mainly, for non-recovery systems.Describes a solution of this problem for the important particular case when the system elements are duplicated by the reserved elements, and the elements that have failed in the course of system operation are recovered (regardless of the state of other elements.An approximate solution of this problem is obtained for the case of high reliability or "fast recovery" of elements on the assumption that the average recovery time of elements is small as compared to the average time between failures.

  19. Reliability and responsiveness of a goniometric device for measuring the range of motion in the dart-throwing motion plane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasubuchi, Kenji; Dohi, Yoshihiro; Fujita, Hiroyuki; Fukumoto, Takahiko

    2018-02-26

    Dart-throwing motion (DTM) is an important component of wrist function and, consequently, has the potential to become an evaluation tool in rehabilitation. However, no measurement method is currently available to reliably measure range of motion (ROM) of the wrist in the DTM plane. To determine the reliability and responsiveness of a goniometric device to measure wrist ROM in the DTM plane. ROM of the wrist in the DTM plane was measured in 70 healthy participants. The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to evaluate the relative reliability of measurement, and a Bland-Altman analysis conducted to establish its absolute reliability, including the 95% limits of agreement (95% LOA). The standard error of the measurement (SEM) and minimal detectable change at the 95% confidence level (MDC 95 ) were calculated as measures of responsiveness. The intra-rater ICC was 0.87, and an inter-rater ICC of 0.71. There was no evidence of a fixed or proportional bias. For intra- and inter-rater reliability, 95% LOA ranged from -13.83 to 11.12 and from -17.75 to 16.19, respectively. The SEM and MDC 95 were 4.5° and 12.4°, respectively, for intra-rater reliability, and 6.0° and 16.6°, respectively, for inter-rater reliability. The ROM of the wrist in the DTM plane was measured with fair-to-good reliability and responsiveness and, therefore, has the potential to become an evaluation tool for rehabilitation.

  20. Methods for estimating the reliability of the RBMK fuel assemblies and elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemin, A.I.; Sitkarev, A.G.

    1985-01-01

    Applied non-parametric methods for calculation of point and interval estimations for the basic nomenclature of reliability factors for the RBMK fuel assemblies and elements are described. As the fuel assembly and element reliability factors, the average lifetime is considered at a preset operating time up to unloading due to fuel burnout as well as the average lifetime at the reactor transient operation and at the steady-state fuel reloading mode of reactor operation. The formulae obtained are included into the special standardized engineering documentation

  1. Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiang; Wang, Wenqian; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

    2014-12-19

    In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al.'s method (BMC Med Res Methodol 5:13, 2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under several other interesting settings where the interquartile range is also available for the trials. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies for the three frequently encountered scenarios, respectively. For the first two scenarios, our method greatly improves existing methods and provides a nearly unbiased estimate of the true sample standard deviation for normal data and a slightly biased estimate for skewed data. For the third scenario, our method still performs very well for both normal data and skewed data. Furthermore, we compare the estimators of the sample mean and standard deviation under all three scenarios and present some suggestions on which scenario is preferred in real-world applications. In this paper, we discuss different approximation methods in the estimation of the sample mean and standard deviation and propose some new estimation methods to improve the existing literature. We conclude our work with a summary table (an Excel spread sheet including all formulas) that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different

  2. Reliability of the American Medical Association guides' model for measuring spinal range of motion. Its implication for whole-person impairment rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitschke, J E; Nattrass, C L; Disler, P B; Chou, M J; Ooi, K T

    1999-02-01

    Repeated measures design for intra- and interrater reliability. To determine the intra- and interrater reliability of the lumbar spine range of motion measured with a dual inclinometer, and the thoracolumbar spine range of motion measured with a long-arm goniometer, as recommended in the American Medical Association Guides. The American Medical Association Guides (2nd and 4th editions) recommend using measurements of thoracolumbar and lumbar range of movement, respectively, to estimate the percentage of permanent impairment in patients with chronic low back pain. However, the reliability of this method of estimating impairment has not been determined. In all, 34 subjects participated in the study, 21 women with a mean age of 40.1 years (SD, +/- 11.1) and 13 men with a mean age of 47.7 years (SD, +/- 12.1). Measures of thoracolumbar flexion, extension, lateral flexion, and rotation were obtained with a long-arm goniometer. Lumbar flexion, extension, and lateral flexion were measured with a dual inclinometer. Measurements were taken by two examiners on one occasion and by one examiner on two occasions approximately 1 week apart. The results showed poor intra- and interrater reliability for all measurements taken with both instruments. Measurement error expressed in degrees showed that measurements taken by different raters exhibited systematic as well as random differences. As a result, subjects measured by two different examiners on the same day, with either instrument, could give impairment ratings ranging between 0% and 18% of the whole person (excluding rotation), in which percentage impairment is calculated using the average range of motion and the average systematic and random error in degrees for the group for each movement (flexion, extension, and lateral flexion). The poor reliability of the American Medical Association Guides' spinal range of motion model can result in marked variation in the percentage of whole-body impairment. These findings have

  3. ARA and ARI imperfect repair models: Estimation, goodness-of-fit and reliability prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toledo, Maria Luíza Guerra de; Freitas, Marta A.; Colosimo, Enrico A.; Gilardoni, Gustavo L.

    2015-01-01

    An appropriate maintenance policy is essential to reduce expenses and risks related to equipment failures. A fundamental aspect to be considered when specifying such policies is to be able to predict the reliability of the systems under study, based on a well fitted model. In this paper, the classes of models Arithmetic Reduction of Age and Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity are explored. Likelihood functions for such models are derived, and a graphical method is proposed for model selection. A real data set involving failures in trucks used by a Brazilian mining is analyzed considering models with different memories. Parameters, namely, shape and scale for Power Law Process, and the efficiency of repair were estimated for the best fitted model. Estimation of model parameters allowed us to derive reliability estimators to predict the behavior of the failure process. These results are a valuable information for the mining company and can be used to support decision making regarding preventive maintenance policy. - Highlights: • Likelihood functions for imperfect repair models are derived. • A goodness-of-fit technique is proposed as a tool for model selection. • Failures in trucks owned by a Brazilian mining are modeled. • Estimation allowed deriving reliability predictors to forecast the future failure process of the trucks

  4. Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee; Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup

    2015-01-01

    In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF

  5. Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Insitute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

  6. Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

    2018-02-01

    Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

  7. Reliability of piping system components. Framework for estimating failure parameters from service data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyman, R.; Hegedus, D.; Tomic, B.; Lydell, B.

    1997-12-01

    This report summarizes results and insights from the final phase of a R and D project on piping reliability sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI). The technical scope includes the development of an analysis framework for estimating piping reliability parameters from service data. The R and D has produced a large database on the operating experience with piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. It covers the period 1970 to the present. The scope of the work emphasized pipe failures (i.e., flaws/cracks, leaks and ruptures) in light water reactors (LWRs). Pipe failures are rare events. A data reduction format was developed to ensure that homogenous data sets are prepared from scarce service data. This data reduction format distinguishes between reliability attributes and reliability influence factors. The quantitative results of the analysis of service data are in the form of conditional probabilities of pipe rupture given failures (flaws/cracks, leaks or ruptures) and frequencies of pipe failures. Finally, the R and D by SKI produced an analysis framework in support of practical applications of service data in PSA. This, multi-purpose framework, termed 'PFCA'-Pipe Failure Cause and Attribute- defines minimum requirements on piping reliability analysis. The application of service data should reflect the requirements of an application. Together with raw data summaries, this analysis framework enables the development of a prior and a posterior pipe rupture probability distribution. The framework supports LOCA frequency estimation, steam line break frequency estimation, as well as the development of strategies for optimized in-service inspection strategies

  8. Reliability of piping system components. Framework for estimating failure parameters from service data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nyman, R [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hegedus, D; Tomic, B [ENCONET Consulting GesmbH, Vienna (Austria); Lydell, B [RSA Technologies, Vista, CA (United States)

    1997-12-01

    This report summarizes results and insights from the final phase of a R and D project on piping reliability sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI). The technical scope includes the development of an analysis framework for estimating piping reliability parameters from service data. The R and D has produced a large database on the operating experience with piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. It covers the period 1970 to the present. The scope of the work emphasized pipe failures (i.e., flaws/cracks, leaks and ruptures) in light water reactors (LWRs). Pipe failures are rare events. A data reduction format was developed to ensure that homogenous data sets are prepared from scarce service data. This data reduction format distinguishes between reliability attributes and reliability influence factors. The quantitative results of the analysis of service data are in the form of conditional probabilities of pipe rupture given failures (flaws/cracks, leaks or ruptures) and frequencies of pipe failures. Finally, the R and D by SKI produced an analysis framework in support of practical applications of service data in PSA. This, multi-purpose framework, termed `PFCA`-Pipe Failure Cause and Attribute- defines minimum requirements on piping reliability analysis. The application of service data should reflect the requirements of an application. Together with raw data summaries, this analysis framework enables the development of a prior and a posterior pipe rupture probability distribution. The framework supports LOCA frequency estimation, steam line break frequency estimation, as well as the development of strategies for optimized in-service inspection strategies. 63 refs, 30 tabs, 22 figs.

  9. Model uncertainty and multimodel inference in reliability estimation within a longitudinal framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Ariel; Laenen, Annouschka

    2013-05-01

    Laenen, Alonso, and Molenberghs (2007) and Laenen, Alonso, Molenberghs, and Vangeneugden (2009) proposed a method to assess the reliability of rating scales in a longitudinal context. The methodology is based on hierarchical linear models, and reliability coefficients are derived from the corresponding covariance matrices. However, finding a good parsimonious model to describe complex longitudinal data is a challenging task. Frequently, several models fit the data equally well, raising the problem of model selection uncertainty. When model uncertainty is high one may resort to model averaging, where inferences are based not on one but on an entire set of models. We explored the use of different model building strategies, including model averaging, in reliability estimation. We found that the approach introduced by Laenen et al. (2007, 2009) combined with some of these strategies may yield meaningful results in the presence of high model selection uncertainty and when all models are misspecified, in so far as some of them manage to capture the most salient features of the data. Nonetheless, when all models omit prominent regularities in the data, misleading results may be obtained. The main ideas are further illustrated on a case study in which the reliability of the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale is estimated. Importantly, the ambit of model selection uncertainty and model averaging transcends the specific setting studied in the paper and may be of interest in other areas of psychometrics. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  10. Validity and reliability of Nike + Fuelband for estimating physical activity energy expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Wesley J; Bhammar, Dharini M; Sawyer, Brandon J; Buman, Matthew P; Gaesser, Glenn A

    2015-01-01

    The Nike + Fuelband is a commercially available, wrist-worn accelerometer used to track physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) during exercise. However, validation studies assessing the accuracy of this device for estimating PAEE are lacking. Therefore, this study examined the validity and reliability of the Nike + Fuelband for estimating PAEE during physical activity in young adults. Secondarily, we compared PAEE estimation of the Nike + Fuelband with the previously validated SenseWear Armband (SWA). Twenty-four participants (n = 24) completed two, 60-min semi-structured routines consisting of sedentary/light-intensity, moderate-intensity, and vigorous-intensity physical activity. Participants wore a Nike + Fuelband and SWA, while oxygen uptake was measured continuously with an Oxycon Mobile (OM) metabolic measurement system (criterion). The Nike + Fuelband (ICC = 0.77) and SWA (ICC = 0.61) both demonstrated moderate to good validity. PAEE estimates provided by the Nike + Fuelband (246 ± 67 kcal) and SWA (238 ± 57 kcal) were not statistically different than OM (243 ± 67 kcal). Both devices also displayed similar mean absolute percent errors for PAEE estimates (Nike + Fuelband = 16 ± 13 %; SWA = 18 ± 18 %). Test-retest reliability for PAEE indicated good stability for Nike + Fuelband (ICC = 0.96) and SWA (ICC = 0.90). The Nike + Fuelband provided valid and reliable estimates of PAEE, that are similar to the previously validated SWA, during a routine that included approximately equal amounts of sedentary/light-, moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity.

  11. Validity and reliability of central blood pressure estimated by upper arm oscillometric cuff pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climie, Rachel E D; Schultz, Martin G; Nikolic, Sonja B; Ahuja, Kiran D K; Fell, James W; Sharman, James E

    2012-04-01

    Noninvasive central blood pressure (BP) independently predicts mortality, but current methods are operator-dependent, requiring skill to obtain quality recordings. The aims of this study were first, to determine the validity of an automatic, upper arm oscillometric cuff method for estimating central BP (O(CBP)) by comparison with the noninvasive reference standard of radial tonometry (T(CBP)). Second, we determined the intratest and intertest reliability of O(CBP). To assess validity, central BP was estimated by O(CBP) (Pulsecor R6.5B monitor) and compared with T(CBP) (SphygmoCor) in 47 participants free from cardiovascular disease (aged 57 ± 9 years) in supine, seated, and standing positions. Brachial mean arterial pressure (MAP) and diastolic BP (DBP) from the O(CBP) device were used to calibrate in both devices. Duplicate measures were recorded in each position on the same day to assess intratest reliability, and participants returned within 10 ± 7 days for repeat measurements to assess intertest reliability. There was a strong intraclass correlation (ICC = 0.987, P difference (1.2 ± 2.2 mm Hg) for central systolic BP (SBP) determined by O(CBP) compared with T(CBP). Ninety-six percent of all comparisons (n = 495 acceptable recordings) were within 5 mm Hg. With respect to reliability, there were strong correlations but higher limits of agreement for the intratest (ICC = 0.975, P difference 0.6 ± 4.5 mm Hg) and intertest (ICC = 0.895, P difference 4.3 ± 8.0 mm Hg) comparisons. Estimation of central SBP using cuff oscillometry is comparable to radial tonometry and has good reproducibility. As a noninvasive, relatively operator-independent method, O(CBP) may be as useful as T(CBP) for estimating central BP in clinical practice.

  12. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

    2006-01-01

    Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

  13. Expanding Reliability Generalization Methods with KR-21 Estimates: An RG Study of the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Ginny G.; White, Amy E.; Henson, Robin K.

    2002-01-01

    Conducted a reliability generalizability study on the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (CSEI; S. Coopersmith, 1967) to examine the variability of reliability estimates across studies and to identify study characteristics that may predict this variability. Results show that reliability for CSEI scores can vary considerably, especially at the…

  14. Empiric reliability of diagnostic and prognostic estimations of physical standards of children, going in for sports.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaporozhanov V.A.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the conditions of sporting-pedagogical practices objective estimation of potential possibilities gettings busy already on the initial stages of long-term preparation examined as one of issues of the day. The proper quantitative information allows to individualize preparation of gettings in obedience to requirements to the guided processes busy. Research purpose - logically and metrical to rotin expedience of metrical method of calculations of reliability of results of the control measurings, in-use for diagnostics of psychophysical fitness and prognosis of growth of trade gettings busy in the select type of sport. Material and methods. Analysed the results of the control measurings on four indexes of psychophysical preparedness and estimation of experts of fitness 24th gettings busy composition of children of gymnastic school. The results of initial and final inspection of gymnasts on the same control tests processed the method of mathematical statistics. Expected the metrical estimations of reliability of measurings is stability, co-ordination and informing of control information for current diagnostics and prognosis of sporting possibilities inspected. Results. Expedience of the use in these aims of metrical operations of calculation of complex estimation of the psychophysical state of gettings busy is metrology grounded. Conclusions. Research results confirm expedience of calculation of complex estimation of psychophysical features gettings busy for diagnostics of fitness in the select type of sport and trade prognosis on the subsequent stages of preparation.

  15. Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adela-Eliza Dumitrascu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram, which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed.

  16. Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

    2015-01-01

    Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed.

  17. The Reliability Estimation for the Open Function of Cabin Door Affected by the Imprecise Judgment Corresponding to Distribution Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Z. P.; Yue, Z. F.; Liu, W.

    2018-05-01

    With the development of artificial intelligence, more and more reliability experts have noticed the roles of subjective information in the reliability design of complex system. Therefore, based on the certain numbers of experiment data and expert judgments, we have divided the reliability estimation based on distribution hypothesis into cognition process and reliability calculation. Consequently, for an illustration of this modification, we have taken the information fusion based on intuitional fuzzy belief functions as the diagnosis model of cognition process, and finished the reliability estimation for the open function of cabin door affected by the imprecise judgment corresponding to distribution hypothesis.

  18. Using operational data to estimate the reliable yields of water-supply wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misstear, Bruce D. R.; Beeson, Sarah

    The reliable yield of a water-supply well depends on many different factors, including the properties of the well and the aquifer; the capacities of the pumps, raw-water mains, and treatment works; the interference effects from other wells; and the constraints imposed by ion licences, water quality, and environmental issues. A relatively simple methodology for estimating reliable yields has been developed that takes into account all of these factors. The methodology is based mainly on an analysis of water-level and source-output data, where such data are available. Good operational data are especially important when dealing with wells in shallow, unconfined, fissure-flow aquifers, where actual well performance may vary considerably from that predicted using a more analytical approach. Key issues in the yield-assessment process are the identification of a deepest advisable pumping water level, and the collection of the appropriate well, aquifer, and operational data. Although developed for water-supply operators in the United Kingdom, this approach to estimating the reliable yields of water-supply wells using operational data should be applicable to a wide range of hydrogeological conditions elsewhere. Résumé La productivité d'un puits capté pour l'adduction d'eau potable dépend de différents facteurs, parmi lesquels les propriétés du puits et de l'aquifère, la puissance des pompes, le traitement des eaux brutes, les effets d'interférences avec d'autres puits et les contraintes imposées par les autorisations d'exploitation, par la qualité des eaux et par les conditions environnementales. Une méthodologie relativement simple d'estimation de la productivité qui prenne en compte tous ces facteurs a été mise au point. Cette méthodologie est basée surtout sur une analyse des données concernant le niveau piézométrique et le débit de prélèvement, quand ces données sont disponibles. De bonnes données opérationnelles sont particuli

  19. Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 1. Main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

    1984-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 1 of this report provides a brief overview of the background of the project, the procedure for using psychological scaling techniques to generate HEP estimates and conclusions from evaluation of the techniques. Results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. In addition, HEP estimates for 35 tasks related to boiling water reactors (BMRs) were obtained as part of the evaluation. These HEP estimates are also included in the report

  20. Uncertainty analysis methods for estimation of reliability of passive system of VHTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S.J.

    2012-01-01

    An estimation of reliability of passive system for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) is under development in Korea. The essential approach of this estimation is to measure the uncertainty of the system performance under a specific accident condition. The uncertainty propagation approach according to the simulation of phenomenological models (computer codes) is adopted as a typical method to estimate the uncertainty for this purpose. This presentation introduced the uncertainty propagation and discussed the related issues focusing on the propagation object and its surrogates. To achieve a sufficient level of depth of uncertainty results, the applicability of the propagation should be carefully reviewed. For an example study, Latin-hypercube sampling (LHS) method as a direct propagation was tested for a specific accident sequence of VHTR. The reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) developed by KAERI was considered for this example study. This is an air-cooled type passive system that has no active components for its operation. The accident sequence is a low pressure conduction cooling (LPCC) accident that is considered as a design basis accident for the safety design of VHTR. This sequence is due to a large failure of the pressure boundary of the reactor system such as a guillotine break of coolant pipe lines. The presentation discussed the obtained insights (benefit and weakness) to apply an estimation of reliability of passive system

  1. ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS AND RELIABILITY FUNCTION OF EXPONENTIATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION: BAYESIAN APPROACH UNDER GENERAL ENTROPY LOSS FUNCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kumar Singh

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In this Paper we propose Bayes estimators of the parameters of Exponentiated Exponential distribution and Reliability functions under General Entropy loss function for Type II censored sample. The proposed estimators have been compared with the corresponding Bayes estimators obtained under Squared Error loss function and maximum likelihood estimators for their simulated risks (average loss over sample space.

  2. Quantitative analysis of velopharyngeal movement using a stereoendoscope: accuracy and reliability of range images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakano, Asuka; Mishima, Katsuaki; Shiraishi, Ruriko; Ueyama, Yoshiya

    2015-01-01

    We developed a novel method of producing accurate range images of the velopharynx using a three-dimensional (3D) endoscope to obtain detailed measurements of velopharyngeal movements. The purpose of the present study was to determine the relationship between the distance from the endoscope to an object, elucidate the measurement accuracy along the temporal axes, and determine the degree of blurring when using a jig to fix the endoscope. An endoscopic measuring system was developed in which a pattern projection system was incorporated into a commercially available 3D endoscope. After correcting the distortion of the camera images, range images were produced using pattern projection to achieve stereo matching. Graph paper was used to measure the appropriate distance from the camera to an object, the mesial buccal cusp of the right maxillary first molar was measured to clarify the range image stability, and an electric actuator was used to evaluate the measurement accuracy along the temporal axes. The measurement error was substantial when the distance from the camera to the subject was >6.5 cm. The standard error of the 3D coordinate value produced from 30 frames was within 0.1 mm (range, 0.01-0.08 mm). The measurement error of the temporal axes was 9.16% in the horizontal direction and 9.27% in the vertical direction. The optimal distance from the camera to an object is movements.

  3. The Reliability of the CVI Range: A Functional Vision Assessment for Children with Cortical Visual Impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newcomb, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    Children who are identified as visually impaired frequently have a functional vision assessment as one way to determine how their visual impairment affects their educational performance. The CVI Range is a functional vision assessment for children with cortical visual impairment. The purpose of the study presented here was to examine the…

  4. Reliability estimation of safety-critical software-based systems using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helminen, A.

    2001-06-01

    Due to the nature of software faults and the way they cause system failures new methods are needed for the safety and reliability evaluation of software-based safety-critical automation systems in nuclear power plants. In the research project 'Programmable automation system safety integrity assessment (PASSI)', belonging to the Finnish Nuclear Safety Research Programme (FINNUS, 1999-2002), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. The project is financed together by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry (KTM) and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). In this report the applicability of Bayesian networks to the reliability estimation of software-based systems is studied. The applicability is evaluated by building Bayesian network models for the systems of interest and performing simulations for these models. In the simulations hypothetical evidence is used for defining the parameter relations and for determining the ability to compensate disparate evidence in the models. Based on the experiences from modelling and simulations we are able to conclude that Bayesian networks provide a good method for the reliability estimation of software-based systems. (orig.)

  5. Estimating reliability of degraded system based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Ge

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available System degradation was usually caused by multiple-parameter degradation. The assessment result of system reliability by universal generating function was low accurate when compared with the Monte Carlo simulation. And the probability density function of the system output performance cannot be got. So the reliability assessment method based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter was presented for complexly degraded system. Firstly, the system output function was founded according to the transitive relation between component parameters and the system output performance. Then, the probability density evolution equation based on the probability conservation principle and the system output function was established. Furthermore, probability distribution characteristics of the system output performance was obtained by solving differential equation. Finally, the reliability of the degraded system was estimated. This method did not need to discrete the performance parameters and can establish continuous probability density function of the system output performance with high calculation efficiency and low cost. Numerical example shows that this method is applicable to evaluate the reliability of multi-parameter degraded system.

  6. Spacecraft Trajectory Estimation Using a Sampled-Data Extended Kalman Filter with Range-Only Measurements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Erwin, R. S; Bernstein, Dennis S

    2005-01-01

    .... In this paper we use a sampled-data extended Kalman Filter to estimate the trajectory or a target satellite when only range measurements are available from a constellation or orbiting spacecraft...

  7. LUMOS - A Sensitive and Reliable Optode System for Measuring Dissolved Oxygen in the Nanomolar Range

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehner, Philipp; Larndorfer, Christoph; Garcia-Robledo, Emilio

    2015-01-01

    Most commercially available optical oxygen sensors target the measuring range of 300 to 2 mu mol L-1. However these are not suitable for investigating the nanomolar range which is relevant for many important environmental situations. We therefore developed a miniaturized phase fluorimeter based...... for read out of less sensitive optical oxygen sensors based on the same or similar indicator dyes, for example for monitoring oxygen at physiological conditions. The presented sensor system exhibits lower noise, higher resolution and higher sensitivity than the electrochemical STOX sensor previously used...... measurement system called the LUMOS (Luminescence Measuring Oxygen Sensor). It consists of a readout device and specialized "sensing chemistry" that relies on commercially available components. The sensor material is based on palladium(II)-5,10,15,20-tetrakis-(2,3,4,5,6-pentafluorphenyl)-porphyrin embedded...

  8. Rabbit System. Low cost, high reliability front end electronics featuring 16 bit dynamic range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drake, G.; Droege, T.F.; Nelson, C.A. Jr.; Turner, K.J.; Ohska, T.K.

    1985-10-01

    A new crate-based front end system has been built which features low cost, compact packaging, command capability, 16 bit dynamic range digitization, and a high degree of redundancy. The crate can contain a variety of instrumentation modules, and is designed to be situated close to the detector. The system is suitable for readout of a large number of channels via parallel multiprocessor data acquisition

  9. Estimation of the reliability function for two-parameter exponentiated Rayleigh or Burr type X distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anupam Pathak

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Problem Statement: The two-parameter exponentiated Rayleigh distribution has been widely used especially in the modelling of life time event data. It provides a statistical model which has a wide variety of application in many areas and the main advantage is its ability in the context of life time event among other distributions. The uniformly minimum variance unbiased and maximum likelihood estimation methods are the way to estimate the parameters of the distribution. In this study we explore and compare the performance of the uniformly minimum variance unbiased and maximum likelihood estimators of the reliability function R(t=P(X>t and P=P(X>Y for the two-parameter exponentiated Rayleigh distribution. Approach: A new technique of obtaining these parametric functions is introduced in which major role is played by the powers of the parameter(s and the functional forms of the parametric functions to be estimated are not needed.  We explore the performance of these estimators numerically under varying conditions. Through the simulation study a comparison are made on the performance of these estimators with respect to the Biasness, Mean Square Error (MSE, 95% confidence length and corresponding coverage percentage. Conclusion: Based on the results of simulation study the UMVUES of R(t and ‘P’ for the two-parameter exponentiated Rayleigh distribution found to be superior than MLES of R(t and ‘P’.

  10. A rapid reliability estimation method for directed acyclic lifeline networks with statistically dependent components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Won-Hee; Kliese, Alyce

    2014-01-01

    Lifeline networks, such as transportation, water supply, sewers, telecommunications, and electrical and gas networks, are essential elements for the economic and societal functions of urban areas, but their components are highly susceptible to natural or man-made hazards. In this context, it is essential to provide effective pre-disaster hazard mitigation strategies and prompt post-disaster risk management efforts based on rapid system reliability assessment. This paper proposes a rapid reliability estimation method for node-pair connectivity analysis of lifeline networks especially when the network components are statistically correlated. Recursive procedures are proposed to compound all network nodes until they become a single super node representing the connectivity between the origin and destination nodes. The proposed method is applied to numerical network examples and benchmark interconnected power and water networks in Memphis, Shelby County. The connectivity analysis results show the proposed method's reasonable accuracy and remarkable efficiency as compared to the Monte Carlo simulations

  11. Validity and Reliability of the Brazilian Version of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry – BREALD-30

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junkes, Monica C.; Fraiz, Fabian C.; Sardenberg, Fernanda; Lee, Jessica Y.; Paiva, Saul M.; Ferreira, Fernanda M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of the present study was to translate, perform the cross-cultural adaptation of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry to Brazilian-Portuguese language and test the reliability and validity of this version. Methods After translation and cross-cultural adaptation, interviews were conducted with 258 parents/caregivers of children in treatment at the pediatric dentistry clinics and health units in Curitiba, Brazil. To test the instrument's validity, the scores of Brazilian Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (BREALD-30) were compared based on occupation, monthly household income, educational attainment, general literacy, use of dental services and three dental outcomes. Results The BREALD-30 demonstrated good internal reliability. Cronbach’s alpha ranged from 0.88 to 0.89 when words were deleted individually. The analysis of test-retest reliability revealed excellent reproducibility (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.983 and Kappa coefficient ranging from moderate to nearly perfect). In the bivariate analysis, BREALD-30 scores were significantly correlated with the level of general literacy (rs = 0.593) and income (rs = 0.327) and significantly associated with occupation, educational attainment, use of dental services, self-rated oral health and the respondent’s perception regarding his/her child's oral health. However, only the association between the BREALD-30 score and the respondent’s perception regarding his/her child's oral health remained significant in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion The BREALD-30 demonstrated satisfactory psychometric properties and is therefore applicable to adults in Brazil. PMID:26158724

  12. Driving range estimation for electric vehicles based on driving condition identification and forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Chaofeng; Dai, Wei; Chen, Liao; Chen, Long; Wang, Limei

    2017-10-01

    With the impact of serious environmental pollution in our cities combined with the ongoing depletion of oil resources, electric vehicles are becoming highly favored as means of transport. Not only for the advantage of low noise, but for their high energy efficiency and zero pollution. The Power battery is used as the energy source of electric vehicles. However, it does currently still have a few shortcomings, noticeably the low energy density, with high costs and short cycle life results in limited mileage compared with conventional passenger vehicles. There is great difference in vehicle energy consumption rate under different environment and driving conditions. Estimation error of current driving range is relatively large due to without considering the effects of environmental temperature and driving conditions. The development of a driving range estimation method will have a great impact on the electric vehicles. A new driving range estimation model based on the combination of driving cycle identification and prediction is proposed and investigated. This model can effectively eliminate mileage errors and has good convergence with added robustness. Initially the identification of the driving cycle is based on Kernel Principal Component feature parameters and fuzzy C referring to clustering algorithm. Secondly, a fuzzy rule between the characteristic parameters and energy consumption is established under MATLAB/Simulink environment. Furthermore the Markov algorithm and BP(Back Propagation) neural network method is utilized to predict the future driving conditions to improve the accuracy of the remaining range estimation. Finally, driving range estimation method is carried out under the ECE 15 condition by using the rotary drum test bench, and the experimental results are compared with the estimation results. Results now show that the proposed driving range estimation method can not only estimate the remaining mileage, but also eliminate the fluctuation of the

  13. Reliability assessment using Bayesian networks. Case study on quantative reliability estimation of a software-based motor protection relay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helminen, A.; Pulkkinen, U.

    2003-06-01

    In this report a quantitative reliability assessment of motor protection relay SPAM 150 C has been carried out. The assessment focuses to the methodological analysis of the quantitative reliability assessment using the software-based motor protection relay as a case study. The assessment method is based on Bayesian networks and tries to take the full advantage of the previous work done in a project called Programmable Automation System Safety Integrity assessment (PASSI). From the results and experiences achieved during the work it is justified to claim that the assessment method presented in the work enables a flexible use of qualitative and quantitative elements of reliability related evidence in a single reliability assessment. At the same time the assessment method is a concurrent way of reasoning one's beliefs and references about the reliability of the system. Full advantage of the assessment method is taken when using the method as a way to cultivate the information related to the reliability of software-based systems. The method can also be used as a communicational instrument in a licensing process of software-based systems. (orig.)

  14. Updated Value of Service Reliability Estimates for Electric Utility Customers in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Michael [Nexant Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Schellenberg, Josh [Nexant Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Blundell, Marshall [Nexant Inc., Burlington, MA (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This report updates the 2009 meta-analysis that provides estimates of the value of service reliability for electricity customers in the United States (U.S.). The meta-dataset now includes 34 different datasets from surveys fielded by 10 different utility companies between 1989 and 2012. Because these studies used nearly identical interruption cost estimation or willingness-to-pay/accept methods, it was possible to integrate their results into a single meta-dataset describing the value of electric service reliability observed in all of them. Once the datasets from the various studies were combined, a two-part regression model was used to estimate customer damage functions that can be generally applied to calculate customer interruption costs per event by season, time of day, day of week, and geographical regions within the U.S. for industrial, commercial, and residential customers. This report focuses on the backwards stepwise selection process that was used to develop the final revised model for all customer classes. Across customer classes, the revised customer interruption cost model has improved significantly because it incorporates more data and does not include the many extraneous variables that were in the original specification from the 2009 meta-analysis. The backwards stepwise selection process led to a more parsimonious model that only included key variables, while still achieving comparable out-of-sample predictive performance. In turn, users of interruption cost estimation tools such as the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator will have less customer characteristics information to provide and the associated inputs page will be far less cumbersome. The upcoming new version of the ICE Calculator is anticipated to be released in 2015.

  15. Low complexity algorithms to independently and jointly estimate the location and range of targets using FMCW

    KAUST Repository

    Ahmed, Sajid

    2017-05-12

    The estimation of angular-location and range of a target is a joint optimization problem. In this work, to estimate these parameters, by meticulously evaluating the phase of the received samples, low complexity sequential and joint estimation algorithms are proposed. We use a single-input and multiple-output (SIMO) system and transmit frequency-modulated continuous-wave signal. In the proposed algorithm, it is shown that by ignoring very small value terms in the phase of the received samples, fast-Fourier-transform (FFT) and two-dimensional FFT can be exploited to estimate these parameters. Sequential estimation algorithm uses FFT and requires only one received snapshot to estimate the angular-location. Joint estimation algorithm uses two-dimensional FFT to estimate the angular-location and range of the target. Simulation results show that joint estimation algorithm yields better mean-squared-error (MSE) for the estimation of angular-location and much lower run-time compared to conventional MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm.

  16. Low complexity algorithms to independently and jointly estimate the location and range of targets using FMCW

    KAUST Repository

    Ahmed, Sajid; Jardak, Seifallah; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2017-01-01

    The estimation of angular-location and range of a target is a joint optimization problem. In this work, to estimate these parameters, by meticulously evaluating the phase of the received samples, low complexity sequential and joint estimation algorithms are proposed. We use a single-input and multiple-output (SIMO) system and transmit frequency-modulated continuous-wave signal. In the proposed algorithm, it is shown that by ignoring very small value terms in the phase of the received samples, fast-Fourier-transform (FFT) and two-dimensional FFT can be exploited to estimate these parameters. Sequential estimation algorithm uses FFT and requires only one received snapshot to estimate the angular-location. Joint estimation algorithm uses two-dimensional FFT to estimate the angular-location and range of the target. Simulation results show that joint estimation algorithm yields better mean-squared-error (MSE) for the estimation of angular-location and much lower run-time compared to conventional MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm.

  17. Lifetime Reliability Estimate and Extreme Permanent Deformations of Randomly Excited Elasto-Plastic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1983-01-01

    plastic deformation during several loadings can be modelled as a filtered Poisson process. Using the Markov property of this quantity the considered first-passage problem as well as the related extreme distribution problems are then solved numerically, and the results are compared to simulation studies.......A method is presented for life-time reliability' estimates of randomly excited yielding systems, assuming the structure to be safe, when the plastic deformations are confined below certain limits. The accumulated plastic deformations during any single significant loading history are considered...

  18. Preliminary investigation on reliability of genomic estimated breeding values in the Danish and Swedish Holstein Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Gregersen, V R

    2010-01-01

    or no effects, and a single prior distribution common for all SNP. It was found that, in general, the model with a common prior distribution of scaling factors had better predictive ability than any mixture prior models. Therefore, a common prior model was used to estimate SNP effects and breeding values......Abstract This study investigated the reliability of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) in the Danish Holstein population. The data in the analysis included 3,330 bulls with both published conventional EBV and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. After data editing, 38,134 SNP markers...... were available. In the analysis, all SNP were fitted simultaneously as random effects in a Bayesian variable selection model, which allows heterogeneous variances for different SNP markers. The response variables were the official EBV. Direct GEBV were calculated as the sum of individual SNP effects...

  19. Between-day reliability of a method for non-invasive estimation of muscle composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simunič, Boštjan

    2012-08-01

    Tensiomyography is a method for valid and non-invasive estimation of skeletal muscle fibre type composition. The validity of selected temporal tensiomyographic measures has been well established recently; there is, however, no evidence regarding the method's between-day reliability. Therefore it is the aim of this paper to establish the between-day repeatability of tensiomyographic measures in three skeletal muscles. For three consecutive days, 10 healthy male volunteers (mean±SD: age 24.6 ± 3.0 years; height 177.9 ± 3.9 cm; weight 72.4 ± 5.2 kg) were examined in a supine position. Four temporal measures (delay, contraction, sustain, and half-relaxation time) and maximal amplitude were extracted from the displacement-time tensiomyogram. A reliability analysis was performed with calculations of bias, random error, coefficient of variation (CV), standard error of measurement, and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) with a 95% confidence interval. An analysis of ICC demonstrated excellent agreement (ICC were over 0.94 in 14 out of 15 tested parameters). However, lower CV was observed in half-relaxation time, presumably because of the specifics of the parameter definition itself. These data indicate that for the three muscles tested, tensiomyographic measurements were reproducible across consecutive test days. Furthermore, we indicated the most possible origin of the lowest reliability detected in half-relaxation time. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Hybrid time-variant reliability estimation for active control structures under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Xiong, Chuang; Wang, Xiaojun; Li, Yunlong; Xu, Menghui

    2018-04-01

    Considering that multi-source uncertainties from inherent nature as well as the external environment are unavoidable and severely affect the controller performance, the dynamic safety assessment with high confidence is of great significance for scientists and engineers. In view of this, the uncertainty quantification analysis and time-variant reliability estimation corresponding to the closed-loop control problems are conducted in this study under a mixture of random, interval, and convex uncertainties. By combining the state-space transformation and the natural set expansion, the boundary laws of controlled response histories are first confirmed with specific implementation of random items. For nonlinear cases, the collocation set methodology and fourth Rounge-Kutta algorithm are introduced as well. Enlightened by the first-passage model in random process theory as well as by the static probabilistic reliability ideas, a new definition of the hybrid time-variant reliability measurement is provided for the vibration control systems and the related solution details are further expounded. Two engineering examples are eventually presented to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the methodology developed.

  1. Regional inversion of CO2 ecosystem fluxes from atmospheric measurements. Reliability of the uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broquet, G.; Chevallier, F.; Breon, F.M.; Yver, C.; Ciais, P.; Ramonet, M.; Schmidt, M. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Alemanno, M. [Servizio Meteorologico dell' Aeronautica Militare Italiana, Centro Aeronautica Militare di Montagna, Monte Cimone/Sestola (Italy); Apadula, F. [Research on Energy Systems, RSE, Environment and Sustainable Development Department, Milano (Italy); Hammer, S. [Universitaet Heidelberg, Institut fuer Umweltphysik, Heidelberg (Germany); Haszpra, L. [Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest (Hungary); Meinhardt, F. [Federal Environmental Agency, Kirchzarten (Germany); Necki, J. [AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland); Piacentino, S. [ENEA, Laboratory for Earth Observations and Analyses, Palermo (Italy); Thompson, R.L. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany); Vermeulen, A.T. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, EEE-EA, Petten (Netherlands)

    2013-07-01

    The Bayesian framework of CO2 flux inversions permits estimates of the retrieved flux uncertainties. Here, the reliability of these theoretical estimates is studied through a comparison against the misfits between the inverted fluxes and independent measurements of the CO2 Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) made by the eddy covariance technique at local (few hectares) scale. Regional inversions at 0.5{sup 0} resolution are applied for the western European domain where {approx}50 eddy covariance sites are operated. These inversions are conducted for the period 2002-2007. They use a mesoscale atmospheric transport model, a prior estimate of the NEE from a terrestrial ecosystem model and rely on the variational assimilation of in situ continuous measurements of CO2 atmospheric mole fractions. Averaged over monthly periods and over the whole domain, the misfits are in good agreement with the theoretical uncertainties for prior and inverted NEE, and pass the chi-square test for the variance at the 30% and 5% significance levels respectively, despite the scale mismatch and the independence between the prior (respectively inverted) NEE and the flux measurements. The theoretical uncertainty reduction for the monthly NEE at the measurement sites is 53% while the inversion decreases the standard deviation of the misfits by 38 %. These results build confidence in the NEE estimates at the European/monthly scales and in their theoretical uncertainty from the regional inverse modelling system. However, the uncertainties at the monthly (respectively annual) scale remain larger than the amplitude of the inter-annual variability of monthly (respectively annual) fluxes, so that this study does not engender confidence in the inter-annual variations. The uncertainties at the monthly scale are significantly smaller than the seasonal variations. The seasonal cycle of the inverted fluxes is thus reliable. In particular, the CO2 sink period over the European continent likely ends later than

  2. Automotive FMCW Radar-Enhanced Range Estimation via a Local Resampling Fourier Transform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cailing Wang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In complex traffic scenarios, more accurate measurement and discrimination for an automotive frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW radar is required for intelligent robots, driverless cars and driver-assistant systems. A more accurate range estimation method based on a local resampling Fourier transform (LRFT for a FMCW radar is developed in this paper. Radar signal correlation in the phase space sees a higher signal-noise-ratio (SNR to achieve more accurate ranging, and the LRFT - which acts on a local neighbour as a refinement step - can achieve a more accurate target range. The rough range is estimated through conditional pulse compression (PC and then, around the initial rough estimation, a refined estimation through the LRFT in the local region achieves greater precision. Furthermore, the LRFT algorithm is tested in numerous simulations and physical system experiments, which show that the LRFT algorithm achieves a more precise range estimation than traditional FFT-based algorithms, especially for lower bandwidth signals.

  3. Improving reliability of state estimation programming and computing suite based on analyzing a fault tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolosok Irina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable information on the current state parameters obtained as a result of processing the measurements from systems of the SCADA and WAMS data acquisition and processing through methods of state estimation (SE is a condition that enables to successfully manage an energy power system (EPS. SCADA and WAMS systems themselves, as any technical systems, are subject to failures and faults that lead to distortion and loss of information. The SE procedure enables to find erroneous measurements, therefore, it is a barrier for the distorted information to penetrate into control problems. At the same time, the programming and computing suite (PCS implementing the SE functions may itself provide a wrong decision due to imperfection of the software algorithms and errors. In this study, we propose to use a fault tree to analyze consequences of failures and faults in SCADA and WAMS and in the very SE procedure. Based on the analysis of the obtained measurement information and on the SE results, we determine the state estimation PCS fault tolerance level featuring its reliability.

  4. Estimating the Optimal Capacity for Reservoir Dam based on Reliability Level for Meeting Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Taghian

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: One of the practical and classic problems in the water resource studies is estimation of the optimal reservoir capacity to satisfy demands. However, full supplying demands for total periods need a very high dam to supply demands during severe drought conditions. That means a major part of reservoir capacity and costs is only usable for a short period of the reservoir lifetime, which would be unjustified in economic analysis. Thus, in the proposed method and model, the full meeting demand is only possible for a percent time of the statistical period that is according to reliability constraint. In the general methods, although this concept apparently seems simple, there is a necessity to add binary variables for meeting or not meeting demands in the linear programming model structures. Thus, with many binary variables, solving the problem will be time consuming and difficult. Another way to solve the problem is the application of the yield model. This model includes some simpler assumptions and that is so difficult to consider details of the water resource system. The applicationof evolutionary algorithms, for the problems have many constraints, is also very complicated. Therefore, this study pursues another solution. Materials and Methods: In this study, for development and improvement the usual methods, instead of mix integer linear programming (MILP and the above methods, a simulation model including flow network linear programming is used coupled with an interface manual code in Matlab to account the reliability based on output file of the simulation model. The acre reservoir simulation program (ARSP has been utilized as a simulation model. A major advantage of the ARSP is its inherent flexibility in defining the operating policies through a penalty structure specified by the user. The ARSP utilizes network flow optimization techniques to handle a subset of general linear programming (LP problems for individual time intervals

  5. An integrated model for reliability estimation of digital nuclear protection system based on fault tree and software control flow methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2000-01-01

    In the nuclear industry, the difficulty of proving the reliabilities of digital systems prohibits the widespread use of digital systems in various nuclear application such as plant protection system. Even though there exist a few models which are used to estimate the reliabilities of digital systems, we develop a new integrated model which is more realistic than the existing models. We divide the process of estimating the reliability of a digital system into two phases, a high-level phase and a low-level phase, and the boundary of two phases is the reliabilities of subsystems. We apply software control flow method to the low-level phase and fault tree analysis to the high-level phase. The application of the model to Dynamic Safety System(DDS) shows that the estimated reliability of the system is quite reasonable and realistic

  6. An integrated model for reliability estimation of digital nuclear protection system based on fault tree and software control flow methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2000-01-01

    In nuclear industry, the difficulty of proving the reliabilities of digital systems prohibits the widespread use of digital systems in various nuclear application such as plant protection system. Even though there exist a few models which are used to estimate the reliabilities of digital systems, we develop a new integrated model which is more realistic than the existing models. We divide the process of estimating the reliability of a digital system into two phases, a high-level phase and a low-level phase, and the boundary of two phases is the reliabilities of subsystems. We apply software control flow method to the low-level phase and fault tree analysis to the high-level phase. The application of the model of dynamic safety system (DSS) shows that the estimated reliability of the system is quite reasonable and realistic. (author)

  7. Reliability of measuring half-cycle cervical range of motion may be increased using a spirit level for calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilke, Jan; Niederer, Daniel; Vogt, Lutz; Banzer, Winfried

    2018-02-01

    Assessments of range of motion (ROM) represent an essential part of clinical diagnostics. Ultrasonic movement analyses have been demonstrated to provide reliable results when analyzing complete amplitudes (e.g., flexion-extension). However, due to subjective determination of the starting position, the assessment of half-cycle movements (e.g, flexion only) is less reproducible. The present study aimed to examine the reliability of measuring half-cycle cervical ROM using a spirit level for calibration. 20 healthy subjects (30 ± 12yrs, 7♂, 13♀) participated in the randomized, controlled, cross-over trial. In two testing sessions with one week of wash-out in between, cervical ROM was measured by means of an ultrasonic 3D movement analysis system using a test-retest design (baseline and 5 min post baseline). The sessions differed with reference to the mask carrying the ultrasound markers. It was removed during the 5 min break (mask off) or not (mask on). To determine the resting position, a bull's eye spirit level was used in each measurement. With ICC values of 0.90-0.98 (mask on, p spirit level. In contrast to subjective determination of the starting position, analyzing complete movement planes does not increase reliability. Using a defined and objective zero positioning allows the evaluation of repositioning tasks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimating Ordinal Reliability for Likert-Type and Ordinal Item Response Data: A Conceptual, Empirical, and Practical Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadermann, Anne M.; Guhn, Martin; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a conceptual, empirical, and practical guide for estimating ordinal reliability coefficients for ordinal item response data (also referred to as Likert, Likert-type, ordered categorical, or rating scale item responses). Conventionally, reliability coefficients, such as Cronbach's alpha, are calculated using a Pearson…

  9. Validity and intra-rater reliability of an android phone application to measure cervical range-of-motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quek, June; Brauer, Sandra G; Treleaven, Julia; Pua, Yong-Hao; Mentiplay, Benjamin; Clark, Ross Allan

    2014-04-17

    Concurrent validity and intra-rater reliability using a customized Android phone application to measure cervical-spine range-of-motion (ROM) has not been previously validated against a gold-standard three-dimensional motion analysis (3DMA) system. Twenty-one healthy individuals (age:31 ± 9.1 years, male:11) participated, with 16 re-examined for intra-rater reliability 1-7 days later. An Android phone was fixed on a helmet, which was then securely fastened on the participant's head. Cervical-spine ROM in flexion, extension, lateral flexion and rotation were performed in sitting with concurrent measurements obtained from both a 3DMA system and the phone.The phone demonstrated moderate to excellent (ICC = 0.53-0.98, Spearman ρ = 0.52-0.98) concurrent validity for ROM measurements in cervical flexion, extension, lateral-flexion and rotation. However, cervical rotation demonstrated both proportional and fixed bias. Excellent intra-rater reliability was demonstrated for cervical flexion, extension and lateral flexion (ICC = 0.82-0.90), but poor for right- and left-rotation (ICC = 0.05-0.33) using the phone. Possible reasons for the outcome are that flexion, extension and lateral-flexion measurements are detected by gravity-dependent accelerometers while rotation measurements are detected by the magnetometer which can be adversely affected by surrounding magnetic fields. The results of this study demonstrate that the tested Android phone application is valid and reliable to measure ROM of the cervical-spine in flexion, extension and lateral-flexion but not in rotation likely due to magnetic interference. The clinical implication of this study is that therapists should be mindful of the plane of measurement when using the Android phone to measure ROM of the cervical-spine.

  10. Rolling estimations of long range dependence volatility for high frequency S&P500 index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Chin Wen; Pei, Tan Pei

    2015-10-01

    This study evaluates the time-varying long range dependence behaviors of the S&P500 volatility index using the modified rescaled adjusted range (R/S) statistic. For better computational result, a high frequency rolling bipower variation realized volatility estimates are used to avoid possible abrupt jump. The empirical analysis findings allow us to understand better the informationally market efficiency before and after the subprime mortgage crisis.

  11. Reliable Dual Tensor Model Estimation in Single and Crossing Fibers Based on Jeffreys Prior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jianfei; Poot, Dirk H. J.; Caan, Matthan W. A.; Su, Tanja; Majoie, Charles B. L. M.; van Vliet, Lucas J.; Vos, Frans M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This paper presents and studies a framework for reliable modeling of diffusion MRI using a data-acquisition adaptive prior. Methods Automated relevance determination estimates the mean of the posterior distribution of a rank-2 dual tensor model exploiting Jeffreys prior (JARD). This data-acquisition prior is based on the Fisher information matrix and enables the assessment whether two tensors are mandatory to describe the data. The method is compared to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) of the dual tensor model and to FSL’s ball-and-stick approach. Results Monte Carlo experiments demonstrated that JARD’s volume fractions correlated well with the ground truth for single and crossing fiber configurations. In single fiber configurations JARD automatically reduced the volume fraction of one compartment to (almost) zero. The variance in fractional anisotropy (FA) of the main tensor component was thereby reduced compared to MLE. JARD and MLE gave a comparable outcome in data simulating crossing fibers. On brain data, JARD yielded a smaller spread in FA along the corpus callosum compared to MLE. Tract-based spatial statistics demonstrated a higher sensitivity in detecting age-related white matter atrophy using JARD compared to both MLE and the ball-and-stick approach. Conclusions The proposed framework offers accurate and precise estimation of diffusion properties in single and dual fiber regions. PMID:27760166

  12. Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanjilal, Oindrila; Manohar, C. S.

    2017-07-01

    The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations.

  13. Reliability of using nondestructive tests to estimate compressive strength of building stones and bricks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Abd Elhakam Aliabdo

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the relationships between Schmidt hardness rebound number (RN and ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV versus compressive strength (fc of stones and bricks. Four types of rocks (marble, pink lime stone, white lime stone and basalt and two types of burned bricks and lime-sand bricks were studied. Linear and non-linear models were proposed. High correlations were found between RN and UPV versus compressive strength. Validation of proposed models was assessed using other specimens for each material. Linear models for each material showed good correlations than non-linear models. General model between RN and compressive strength of tested stones and bricks showed a high correlation with regression coefficient R2 value of 0.94. Estimation of compressive strength for the studied stones and bricks using their rebound number and ultrasonic pulse velocity in a combined method was generally more reliable than using rebound number or ultrasonic pulse velocity only.

  14. Coherent laser radar with dual-frequency Doppler estimation and interferometric range detection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onori, D.; Scotti, F.; Laghezza, F.; Scaffardi, M.; Bogoni, A.

    2016-01-01

    The concept of a coherent interferometric dual frequency laser radar, that measures both the target range and velocity, is presented and experimentally demonstrated. The innovative architecture combines the dual frequency lidar concept, allowing a precise and robust Doppler estimation, with the

  15. A state-space model for estimating detailed movements and home range from acoustic receiver data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Weng, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    We present a state-space model for acoustic receiver data to estimate detailed movement and home range of individual fish while accounting for spatial bias. An integral part of the approach is the detection function, which models the probability of logging tag transmissions as a function of dista......We present a state-space model for acoustic receiver data to estimate detailed movement and home range of individual fish while accounting for spatial bias. An integral part of the approach is the detection function, which models the probability of logging tag transmissions as a function...... that the location error scales log-linearly with detection range and movement speed. This result can be used as guideline for designing network layout when species movement capacity and acoustic environment are known or can be estimated prior to network deployment. Finally, as an example, the state-space model...... is used to estimate home range and movement of a reef fish in the Pacific Ocean....

  16. Cumulant-Based Coherent Signal Subspace Method for Bearing and Range Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bourennane Salah

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method for simultaneous range and bearing estimation for buried objects in the presence of an unknown Gaussian noise is proposed. This method uses the MUSIC algorithm with noise subspace estimated by using the slice fourth-order cumulant matrix of the received data. The higher-order statistics aim at the removal of the additive unknown Gaussian noise. The bilinear focusing operator is used to decorrelate the received signals and to estimate the coherent signal subspace. A new source steering vector is proposed including the acoustic scattering model at each sensor. Range and bearing of the objects at each sensor are expressed as a function of those at the first sensor. This leads to the improvement of object localization anywhere, in the near-field or in the far-field zone of the sensor array. Finally, the performances of the proposed method are validated on data recorded during experiments in a water tank.

  17. An extended set-value observer for position estimation using single range measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marcal, Jose; Jouffroy, Jerome; Fossen, Thor I.

    the observability of the system is briefly discussed and an extended set-valued observer is presented, with some discussion about the effect of the measurements noise on the final solution. This observer estimates bounds in the errors assuming that the exogenous signals are bounded, providing a safe region......The ability of estimating the position of an underwater vehicle from single range measurements is important in applications where one transducer marks an important geographical point, when there is a limitation in the size or cost of the vehicle, or when there is a failure in a system...... of transponders. The knowledge of the bearing of the vehicle and the range measurements from a single location can provide a solution which is sensitive to the trajectory that the vehicle is following, since there is no complete constraint on the position estimate with a single beacon. In this paper...

  18. Reliability estimation of structures under stochastic loading—A case study on nuclear piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Rami Reddy, G.; Dubey, P.N.; Srividya, A.; Verma, A.K.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Structures are generally subjected to different types of loadings. ► One such type of loading is random sequence and has been treated as a stochastic fatigue loading. ► In this methodology both stress amplitude and number of cycles to failure have been considered as random variables. ► The methodology has been demonstrated with a case study on nuclear piping. ► The failure probability of piping has been estimated as a function of time. - Abstract: Generally structures are subjected to different types of loadings throughout their life time. These loads can be either discrete in nature or continuous in nature and also these can be either stationary or non stationary processes. This means that the structural reliability analysis not only considers random variables but also considers random variables which are functions of time, referred to as stochastic processes. A stochastic process can be viewed as a family of random variables. When a structure is subjected to a random loading, based on the stresses developed in the structure and failure criteria the failure probability can be estimated. In practice the structures are designed with higher factor of safety to take care of such random loads. In such cases the structure will fail only when the random loads are cyclic in nature. In traditional reliability analysis, the variation in the load is treated as a random variable and to account for the number of occurrences of the loading the concept of extreme value theory is used. But with this method one is neglecting the damage accumulation that will take place from one loading to another loading. Hence, in this paper, a new way of dealing with these types of problems has been discussed by using the concept of stochastic fatigue loading. The random loading has been considered as earthquake loading. The methodology has been demonstrated with a case study on nuclear power plant piping.

  19. The concurrent validity and reliability of the Leg Motion system for measuring ankle dorsiflexion range of motion in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Romero Morales

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background New reliable devices for range of motion (ROM measures in older adults are necessary to improve knowledge about the functional capability in this population. Dorsiflexion ROM limitation is associated with ankle injuries, foot pain, lower limb disorders, loss of balance, gait control disorders and fall risk in older adults. The aim of the present study was to assess the validity and reliability of the Leg Motion device for measuring ankle dorsiflexion ROM in older adults. Methods Adescriptive repeated-measures study was designed to test the reliability of Leg Motion in thirty-three healthy elderly patients older than 65 years. The subjects had to meet the following inclusion and exclusion criteria in their medical records: older than 65 years; no lower extremity injury for at least one year prior to evaluation (meniscopathy, or fractures and any chronic injuries (e.g., osteoarthritis; no previous hip, knee or ankle surgery; no neuropathic alterations and no cognitive conditions (e.g., Alzheimer’s disease or dementia. Participants were recruited through the person responsible for the physiotherapist area from a nursing center. The subjects were evaluated in two different sessions at the same time of day, and there was a break of two weeks between sessions. To test the validity of the Leg Motion system, the participants were measured in a weight-bearing lunge position using a classic goniometer with 1° increments, a smartphone with an inclinometer standard app (iPhone 5S® with 1° increments and a measuring tape that could measure 0.1 cm. All testing was performed while the patients were barefoot. The researcher had ten years of experience as a physiotherapist using goniometer, tape measure and inclinometer devices. Results Mean values and standard deviations were as follows: Leg Motion (right 5.15 ± 3.08; left 5.19 ± 2.98, tape measure (right 5.12 ± 3.08; left 5.12 ± 2.80, goniometer (right 45.87° ± 4.98; left 44

  20. On the Reliability of Source Time Functions Estimated Using Empirical Green's Function Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallegos, A. C.; Xie, J.; Suarez Salas, L.

    2017-12-01

    The Empirical Green's Function (EGF) method (Hartzell, 1978) has been widely used to extract source time functions (STFs). In this method, seismograms generated by collocated events with different magnitudes are deconvolved. Under a fundamental assumption that the STF of the small event is a delta function, the deconvolved Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) yields the large event's STF. While this assumption can be empirically justified by examination of differences in event size and frequency content of the seismograms, there can be a lack of rigorous justification of the assumption. In practice, a small event might have a finite duration when the RSTF is retrieved and interpreted as the large event STF with a bias. In this study, we rigorously analyze this bias using synthetic waveforms generated by convolving a realistic Green's function waveform with pairs of finite-duration triangular or parabolic STFs. The RSTFs are found using a time-domain based matrix deconvolution. We find when the STFs of smaller events are finite, the RSTFs are a series of narrow non-physical spikes. Interpreting these RSTFs as a series of high-frequency source radiations would be very misleading. The only reliable and unambiguous information we can retrieve from these RSTFs is the difference in durations and the moment ratio of the two STFs. We can apply a Tikhonov smoothing to obtain a single-pulse RSTF, but its duration is dependent on the choice of weighting, which may be subjective. We then test the Multi-Channel Deconvolution (MCD) method (Plourde & Bostock, 2017) which assumes that both STFs have finite durations to be solved for. A concern about the MCD method is that the number of unknown parameters is larger, which would tend to make the problem rank-deficient. Because the kernel matrix is dependent on the STFs to be solved for under a positivity constraint, we can only estimate the rank-deficiency with a semi-empirical approach. Based on the results so far, we find that the

  1. Reliability of different sampling densities for estimating and mapping lichen diversity in biomonitoring studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferretti, M.; Brambilla, E.; Brunialti, G.; Fornasier, F.; Mazzali, C.; Giordani, P.; Nimis, P.L.

    2004-01-01

    Sampling requirements related to lichen biomonitoring include optimal sampling density for obtaining precise and unbiased estimates of population parameters and maps of known reliability. Two available datasets on a sub-national scale in Italy were used to determine a cost-effective sampling density to be adopted in medium-to-large-scale biomonitoring studies. As expected, the relative error in the mean Lichen Biodiversity (Italian acronym: BL) values and the error associated with the interpolation of BL values for (unmeasured) grid cells increased as the sampling density decreased. However, the increase in size of the error was not linear and even a considerable reduction (up to 50%) in the original sampling effort led to a far smaller increase in errors in the mean estimates (<6%) and in mapping (<18%) as compared with the original sampling densities. A reduction in the sampling effort can result in considerable savings of resources, which can then be used for a more detailed investigation of potentially problematic areas. It is, however, necessary to decide the acceptable level of precision at the design stage of the investigation, so as to select the proper sampling density. - An acceptable level of precision must be decided before determining a sampling design

  2. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

    2015-01-01

    Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

  3. Reliability analysis of road network for estimation of public evacuation time around NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Sun-Young; Lee, Gab-Bock; Chung, Yang-Geun [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    The most strong protection method of radiation emergency preparedness is the evacuation of the public members when a great deal of radioactivity is released to environment. After the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant meltdown in the United States and Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster in the U.S.S.R, many advanced countries including the United States and Japan have continued research on estimation of public evacuation time as one of emergency countermeasure technologies. Also in South Korea, 'Framework Act on Civil Defense: Radioactive Disaster Preparedness Plan' was established in 1983 and nuclear power plants set up a radiation emergency plan and have regularly carried out radiation emergency preparedness trainings. Nonetheless, there is still a need to improve technology to estimate public evacuation time by executing precise analysis of traffic flow to prepare practical and efficient ways to protect the public. In this research, road network for Wolsong and Kori NPPs was constructed by CORSIM code and Reliability analysis of this road network was performed.

  4. Characterization of the range effect in synthetic aperture radar images of concrete specimens for width estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alzeyadi, Ahmed; Yu, Tzuyang

    2018-03-01

    Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is an indispensable approach for the sustainability of critical civil infrastructure systems such as bridges and buildings. Recently, microwave/radar sensors are widely used for assessing the condition of concrete structures. Among existing imaging techniques in microwave/radar sensors, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging enables researchers to conduct surface and subsurface inspection of concrete structures in the range-cross-range representation of SAR images. The objective of this paper is to investigate the range effect of concrete specimens in SAR images at various ranges (15 cm, 50 cm, 75 cm, 100 cm, and 200 cm). One concrete panel specimen (water-to-cement ratio = 0.45) of 30-cm-by-30-cm-by-5-cm was manufactured and scanned by a 10 GHz SAR imaging radar sensor inside an anechoic chamber. Scatterers in SAR images representing two corners of the concrete panel were used to estimate the width of the panel. It was found that the range-dependent pattern of corner scatters can be used to predict the width of concrete panels. Also, the maximum SAR amplitude decreases when the range increases. An empirical model was also proposed for width estimation of concrete panels.

  5. Quick and reliable estimation of power distribution in a PHWR by ANN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubey, B.P.; Jagannathan, V.; Kataria, S.K.

    1998-01-01

    Knowledge of the distribution of power in all the channels of a Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) as a result of a perturbation caused by one or more of the regulating devices is very important from the operation and maintenance point of view of the reactor. Theoretical design codes available for this purpose take several minutes to calculate the channel power distribution on modern PCs. Artificial Neural networks (ANNs) have been employed in predicting channel power distribution of Indian PHWRs for any given configuration of regulating devices of the reactor. ANNs produce the result much faster and with good accuracy. This paper describes the methodology of ANN, its reliability, the validation range, and scope for its possible on-line use in the actual reactor

  6. An improved method to estimate reflectance parameters for high dynamic range imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shiying; Deguchi, Koichiro; Li, Renfa; Manabe, Yoshitsugu; Chihara, Kunihiro

    2008-01-01

    Two methods are described to accurately estimate diffuse and specular reflectance parameters for colors, gloss intensity and surface roughness, over the dynamic range of the camera used to capture input images. Neither method needs to segment color areas on an image, or to reconstruct a high dynamic range (HDR) image. The second method improves on the first, bypassing the requirement for specific separation of diffuse and specular reflection components. For the latter method, diffuse and specular reflectance parameters are estimated separately, using the least squares method. Reflection values are initially assumed to be diffuse-only reflection components, and are subjected to the least squares method to estimate diffuse reflectance parameters. Specular reflection components, obtained by subtracting the computed diffuse reflection components from reflection values, are then subjected to a logarithmically transformed equation of the Torrance-Sparrow reflection model, and specular reflectance parameters for gloss intensity and surface roughness are finally estimated using the least squares method. Experiments were carried out using both methods, with simulation data at different saturation levels, generated according to the Lambert and Torrance-Sparrow reflection models, and the second method, with spectral images captured by an imaging spectrograph and a moving light source. Our results show that the second method can estimate the diffuse and specular reflectance parameters for colors, gloss intensity and surface roughness more accurately and faster than the first one, so that colors and gloss can be reproduced more efficiently for HDR imaging.

  7. Evaluating methods for estimating home ranges using GPS collars: A comparison using proboscis monkeys (Nasalis larvatus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Danica J; Vaughan, Ian P; Ramirez Saldivar, Diana A; Nathan, Senthilvel K S S; Goossens, Benoit

    2017-01-01

    The development of GPS tags for tracking wildlife has revolutionised the study of home ranges, habitat use and behaviour. Concomitantly, there have been rapid developments in methods for estimating habitat use from GPS data. In combination, these changes can cause challenges in choosing the best methods for estimating home ranges. In primatology, this issue has received little attention, as there have been few GPS collar-based studies to date. However, as advancing technology is making collaring studies more feasible, there is a need for the analysis to advance alongside the technology. Here, using a high quality GPS collaring data set from 10 proboscis monkeys (Nasalis larvatus), we aimed to: 1) compare home range estimates from the most commonly used method in primatology, the grid-cell method, with three recent methods designed for large and/or temporally correlated GPS data sets; 2) evaluate how well these methods identify known physical barriers (e.g. rivers); and 3) test the robustness of the different methods to data containing either less frequent or random losses of GPS fixes. Biased random bridges had the best overall performance, combining a high level of agreement between the raw data and estimated utilisation distribution with a relatively low sensitivity to reduced fixed frequency or loss of data. It estimated the home range of proboscis monkeys to be 24-165 ha (mean 80.89 ha). The grid-cell method and approaches based on local convex hulls had some advantages including simplicity and excellent barrier identification, respectively, but lower overall performance. With the most suitable model, or combination of models, it is possible to understand more fully the patterns, causes, and potential consequences that disturbances could have on an animal, and accordingly be used to assist in the management and restoration of degraded landscapes.

  8. Evaluating methods for estimating home ranges using GPS collars: A comparison using proboscis monkeys (Nasalis larvatus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danica J Stark

    Full Text Available The development of GPS tags for tracking wildlife has revolutionised the study of home ranges, habitat use and behaviour. Concomitantly, there have been rapid developments in methods for estimating habitat use from GPS data. In combination, these changes can cause challenges in choosing the best methods for estimating home ranges. In primatology, this issue has received little attention, as there have been few GPS collar-based studies to date. However, as advancing technology is making collaring studies more feasible, there is a need for the analysis to advance alongside the technology. Here, using a high quality GPS collaring data set from 10 proboscis monkeys (Nasalis larvatus, we aimed to: 1 compare home range estimates from the most commonly used method in primatology, the grid-cell method, with three recent methods designed for large and/or temporally correlated GPS data sets; 2 evaluate how well these methods identify known physical barriers (e.g. rivers; and 3 test the robustness of the different methods to data containing either less frequent or random losses of GPS fixes. Biased random bridges had the best overall performance, combining a high level of agreement between the raw data and estimated utilisation distribution with a relatively low sensitivity to reduced fixed frequency or loss of data. It estimated the home range of proboscis monkeys to be 24-165 ha (mean 80.89 ha. The grid-cell method and approaches based on local convex hulls had some advantages including simplicity and excellent barrier identification, respectively, but lower overall performance. With the most suitable model, or combination of models, it is possible to understand more fully the patterns, causes, and potential consequences that disturbances could have on an animal, and accordingly be used to assist in the management and restoration of degraded landscapes.

  9. A practical approach for calculating reliable cost estimates from observational data: application to cost analyses in maternal and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salemi, Jason L; Comins, Meg M; Chandler, Kristen; Mogos, Mulubrhan F; Salihu, Hamisu M

    2013-08-01

    Comparative effectiveness research (CER) and cost-effectiveness analysis are valuable tools for informing health policy and clinical care decisions. Despite the increased availability of rich observational databases with economic measures, few researchers have the skills needed to conduct valid and reliable cost analyses for CER. The objectives of this paper are to (i) describe a practical approach for calculating cost estimates from hospital charges in discharge data using publicly available hospital cost reports, and (ii) assess the impact of using different methods for cost estimation in maternal and child health (MCH) studies by conducting economic analyses on gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity. In Florida, we have constructed a clinically enhanced, longitudinal, encounter-level MCH database covering over 2.3 million infants (and their mothers) born alive from 1998 to 2009. Using this as a template, we describe a detailed methodology to use publicly available data to calculate hospital-wide and department-specific cost-to-charge ratios (CCRs), link them to the master database, and convert reported hospital charges to refined cost estimates. We then conduct an economic analysis as a case study on women by GDM and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) status to compare the impact of using different methods on cost estimation. Over 60 % of inpatient charges for birth hospitalizations came from the nursery/labor/delivery units, which have very different cost-to-charge markups (CCR = 0.70) than the commonly substituted hospital average (CCR = 0.29). Using estimated mean, per-person maternal hospitalization costs for women with GDM as an example, unadjusted charges ($US14,696) grossly overestimated actual cost, compared with hospital-wide ($US3,498) and department-level ($US4,986) CCR adjustments. However, the refined cost estimation method, although more accurate, did not alter our conclusions that infant/maternal hospitalization costs

  10. Reliability-based fatigue life estimation of shear riveted connections considering dependency of rivet hole failures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonetti* Davide

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Standards and guidelines for the fatigue design of riveted connections make use of a stress range-endurance (S-N curve based on the net section stress range regardless of the number and the position of the rivets. Almost all tests on which S-N curves are based, are performed with a minimum number of rivets. However, the number of rivets in a row is expected to increase the fail-safe behaviour of the connection, whereas the number of rows is supposed to decrease the theoretical stress concentration at the critical locations, and hence these aspects are not considered in the S-N curves. This paper presents a numerical model predicting the fatigue life of riveted connections by performing a system reliability analysis on a double cover plated riveted butt joint. The connection is considered in three geometries, with different number of rivets in a row and different number of rows. The stress state in the connection is evaluated using a finite element model in which the friction coefficient and the clamping force in the rivets are considered in a deterministic manner. The probability of failure is evaluated for the main plate, and fatigue failure is assumed to be originating at the sides of the rivet holes, the critical locations, or hot-spots. The notch stress approach is applied to assess the fatigue life, considered to be a stochastic quantity. Unlike other system reliability models available in the literature, the evaluation of the probability of failure takes into account the stochastic dependence between the failures at each critical location modelled as a parallel system, which means considering the change of the state of stress in the connection when a ligament between two rivets fails. A sensitivity study is performed to evaluate the effect of the pretension in the rivet and the friction coefficient on the fatigue life.

  11. Validation of accuracy and reliability of a simple measurement device for the lumber range of motion (SMD-L-ROM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Nakayuki; Fujiwara, Atsushi; Honda, Toshio; Taneichi, Hiroshi

    2007-01-01

    It is important to evaluate mobility of the lumbar spine for assessment of lumbar spinal disorders and their therapeutic effects. We developed a simple measurement device for the lumbar range of motion (SMD-L-ROM) which can be installed on the trunk. SMD-L-ROM allows to evaluate mobility of the lumbar spine without x-ray exposure. Accuracy and reliability of the measurement device was assessed in this article. SMD-L-ROM comprises two metallic immobilization plates (IPs) with a vertically installed bar and a rubber band for fixation of IP to the trunk. Two IPs were installed at the level of Th12 and the sacrum. Range of motion (ROM) of the lumbar spine was measured by using SMD-L-ROM and radiographic modalities (X-ray and CT). Consistency of the measured values by both of SMD-L-ROM and radiographic modalities was evaluated. Furthermore, inter- and intra-observer agreement of measured values by SMD-L-ROM was assessed. Regarding measurement of ROM, there was a high correlation between SMD-L-ROM and X-ray/CT especially in the sagittal and axial plane. There was no significant difference in the average values of ROM between the two methods. On the other hand, SMD-L-ROM did not detect accurate position of the lumbar spine in all dimensions. There were no inter- and intra-observer errors of measured values by SMD-L-ROM. ROM of the lumbar spine was simply and economically measured with SMD-L-ROM. Accuracy and reliability of SMD-L-ROM was good enough for ROM measurement in the lumbar spine. (author)

  12. Determinants of the reliability of ultrasound tomography sound speed estimates as a surrogate for volumetric breast density

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khodr, Zeina G.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Gierach, Gretchen L., E-mail: GierachG@mail.nih.gov [Department of Health and Human Services, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive MSC 9774, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States); Sak, Mark A.; Bey-Knight, Lisa [Karmanos Cancer Institute, Wayne State University, 4100 John R, Detroit, Michigan 48201 (United States); Duric, Nebojsa; Littrup, Peter [Karmanos Cancer Institute, Wayne State University, 4100 John R, Detroit, Michigan 48201 and Delphinus Medical Technologies, 46701 Commerce Center Drive, Plymouth, Michigan 48170 (United States); Ali, Haythem; Vallieres, Patricia [Henry Ford Health System, 2799 W Grand Boulevard, Detroit, Michigan 48202 (United States); Sherman, Mark E. [Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, 9609 Medical Center Drive MSC 9774, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States)

    2015-10-15

    Purpose: High breast density, as measured by mammography, is associated with increased breast cancer risk, but standard methods of assessment have limitations including 2D representation of breast tissue, distortion due to breast compression, and use of ionizing radiation. Ultrasound tomography (UST) is a novel imaging method that averts these limitations and uses sound speed measures rather than x-ray imaging to estimate breast density. The authors evaluated the reproducibility of measures of speed of sound and changes in this parameter using UST. Methods: One experienced and five newly trained raters measured sound speed in serial UST scans for 22 women (two scans per person) to assess inter-rater reliability. Intrarater reliability was assessed for four raters. A random effects model was used to calculate the percent variation in sound speed and change in sound speed attributable to subject, scan, rater, and repeat reads. The authors estimated the intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for these measures based on data from the authors’ experienced rater. Results: Median (range) time between baseline and follow-up UST scans was five (1–13) months. Contributions of factors to sound speed variance were differences between subjects (86.0%), baseline versus follow-up scans (7.5%), inter-rater evaluations (1.1%), and intrarater reproducibility (∼0%). When evaluating change in sound speed between scans, 2.7% and ∼0% of variation were attributed to inter- and intrarater variation, respectively. For the experienced rater’s repeat reads, agreement for sound speed was excellent (ICC = 93.4%) and for change in sound speed substantial (ICC = 70.4%), indicating very good reproducibility of these measures. Conclusions: UST provided highly reproducible sound speed measurements, which reflect breast density, suggesting that UST has utility in sensitively assessing change in density.

  13. Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Chaimowicz

    Full Text Available The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries' populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil.We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815. Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%.The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations.

  14. Human decomposition and the reliability of a 'Universal' model for post mortem interval estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockle, Diane L; Bell, Lynne S

    2015-08-01

    Human decomposition is a complex biological process driven by an array of variables which are not clearly understood. The medico-legal community have long been searching for a reliable method to establish the post-mortem interval (PMI) for those whose deaths have either been hidden, or gone un-noticed. To date, attempts to develop a PMI estimation method based on the state of the body either at the scene or at autopsy have been unsuccessful. One recent study has proposed that two simple formulae, based on the level of decomposition humidity and temperature, could be used to accurately calculate the PMI for bodies outside, on or under the surface worldwide. This study attempted to validate 'Formula I' [1] (for bodies on the surface) using 42 Canadian cases with known PMIs. The results indicated that bodies exposed to warm temperatures consistently overestimated the known PMI by a large and inconsistent margin for Formula I estimations. And for bodies exposed to cold and freezing temperatures (less than 4°C), then the PMI was dramatically under estimated. The ability of 'Formulae II' to estimate the PMI for buried bodies was also examined using a set of 22 known Canadian burial cases. As these cases used in this study are retrospective, some of the data needed for Formula II was not available. The 4.6 value used in Formula II to represent the standard ratio of time that burial decelerates the rate of decomposition was examined. The average time taken to achieve each stage of decomposition both on, and under the surface was compared for the 118 known cases. It was found that the rate of decomposition was not consistent throughout all stages of decomposition. The rates of autolysis above and below the ground were equivalent with the buried cases staying in a state of putrefaction for a prolonged period of time. It is suggested that differences in temperature extremes and humidity levels between geographic regions may make it impractical to apply formulas developed in

  15. Luminescence imaging of water during carbon-ion irradiation for range estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamamoto, Seiichi, E-mail: s-yama@met.nagoya-u.ac.jp; Komori, Masataka; Koyama, Shuji; Morishita, Yuki; Sekihara, Eri [Radiological and Medical Laboratory Sciences, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Higashi-ku, Nagoya, Aichi 461-8673 (Japan); Akagi, Takashi; Yamashita, Tomohiro [Hygo Ion Beam Medical Center, Hyogo 679-5165 (Japan); Toshito, Toshiyuki [Department of Proton Therapy Physics, Nagoya Proton Therapy Center, Nagoya City West Medical Center, Aichi 462-8508 (Japan)

    2016-05-15

    Purpose: The authors previously reported successful luminescence imaging of water during proton irradiation and its application to range estimation. However, since the feasibility of this approach for carbon-ion irradiation remained unclear, the authors conducted luminescence imaging during carbon-ion irradiation and estimated the ranges. Methods: The authors placed a pure-water phantom on the patient couch of a carbon-ion therapy system and measured the luminescence images with a high-sensitivity, cooled charge-coupled device camera during carbon-ion irradiation. The authors also carried out imaging of three types of phantoms (tap-water, an acrylic block, and a plastic scintillator) and compared their intensities and distributions with those of a phantom containing pure-water. Results: The luminescence images of pure-water phantoms during carbon-ion irradiation showed clear Bragg peaks, and the measured carbon-ion ranges from the images were almost the same as those obtained by simulation. The image of the tap-water phantom showed almost the same distribution as that of the pure-water phantom. The acrylic block phantom’s luminescence image produced seven times higher luminescence and had a 13% shorter range than that of the water phantoms; the range with the acrylic phantom generally matched the calculated value. The plastic scintillator showed ∼15 000 times higher light than that of water. Conclusions: Luminescence imaging during carbon-ion irradiation of water is not only possible but also a promising method for range estimation in carbon-ion therapy.

  16. Luminescence imaging of water during carbon-ion irradiation for range estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Seiichi; Komori, Masataka; Koyama, Shuji; Morishita, Yuki; Sekihara, Eri; Akagi, Takashi; Yamashita, Tomohiro; Toshito, Toshiyuki

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The authors previously reported successful luminescence imaging of water during proton irradiation and its application to range estimation. However, since the feasibility of this approach for carbon-ion irradiation remained unclear, the authors conducted luminescence imaging during carbon-ion irradiation and estimated the ranges. Methods: The authors placed a pure-water phantom on the patient couch of a carbon-ion therapy system and measured the luminescence images with a high-sensitivity, cooled charge-coupled device camera during carbon-ion irradiation. The authors also carried out imaging of three types of phantoms (tap-water, an acrylic block, and a plastic scintillator) and compared their intensities and distributions with those of a phantom containing pure-water. Results: The luminescence images of pure-water phantoms during carbon-ion irradiation showed clear Bragg peaks, and the measured carbon-ion ranges from the images were almost the same as those obtained by simulation. The image of the tap-water phantom showed almost the same distribution as that of the pure-water phantom. The acrylic block phantom’s luminescence image produced seven times higher luminescence and had a 13% shorter range than that of the water phantoms; the range with the acrylic phantom generally matched the calculated value. The plastic scintillator showed ∼15 000 times higher light than that of water. Conclusions: Luminescence imaging during carbon-ion irradiation of water is not only possible but also a promising method for range estimation in carbon-ion therapy.

  17. Modeling the potential area of occupancy at fine resolution may reduce uncertainty in species range estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiménez-Alfaro, Borja; Draper, David; Nogues, David Bravo

    2012-01-01

    and maximum entropy modeling to assess whether different sampling (expert versus systematic surveys) may affect AOO estimates based on habitat suitability maps, and the differences between such measurements and traditional coarse-grid methods. Fine-scale models performed robustly and were not influenced...... by survey protocols, providing similar habitat suitability outputs with high spatial agreement. Model-based estimates of potential AOO were significantly smaller than AOO measures obtained from coarse-scale grids, even if the first were obtained from conservative thresholds based on the Minimal Predicted...... permit comparable measures among species. We conclude that estimates of AOO based on fine-resolution distribution models are more robust tools for risk assessment than traditional systems, allowing a better understanding of species ranges at habitat level....

  18. System Estimation of Panel Data Models under Long-Range Dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ergemen, Yunus Emre

    A general dynamic panel data model is considered that incorporates individual and interactive fixed effects allowing for contemporaneous correlation in model innovations. The model accommodates general stationary or nonstationary long-range dependence through interactive fixed effects...... and innovations, removing the necessity to perform a priori unit-root or stationarity testing. Moreover, persistence in innovations and interactive fixed effects allows for cointegration; innovations can also have vector-autoregressive dynamics; deterministic trends can be featured. Estimations are performed...

  19. Validity and test-retest reliability of manual goniometers for measuring passive hip range of motion in femoroacetabular impingement patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nussbaumer Silvio

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aims of this study were to evaluate the construct validity (known group, concurrent validity (criterion based and test-retest (intra-rater reliability of manual goniometers to measure passive hip range of motion (ROM in femoroacetabular impingement patients and healthy controls. Methods Passive hip flexion, abduction, adduction, internal and external rotation ROMs were simultaneously measured with a conventional goniometer and an electromagnetic tracking system (ETS on two different testing sessions. A total of 15 patients and 15 sex- and age-matched healthy controls participated in the study. Results The goniometer provided greater hip ROM values compared to the ETS (range 2.0-18.9 degrees; P P Conclusions The present study suggests that goniometer-based assessments considerably overestimate hip joint ROM by measuring intersegmental angles (e.g., thigh flexion on trunk for hip flexion rather than true hip ROM. It is likely that uncontrolled pelvic rotation and tilt due to difficulties in placing the goniometer properly and in performing the anatomically correct ROM contribute to the overrating of the arc of these motions. Nevertheless, conventional manual goniometers can be used with confidence for longitudinal assessments in the clinic.

  20. Factor structure and reliability of the childhood trauma questionnaire and prevalence estimates of trauma for male and female street youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forde, David R; Baron, Stephen W; Scher, Christine D; Stein, Murray B

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the psychometric properties of the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire short form (CTQ-SF) with street youth who have run away or been expelled from their homes (N = 397). Internal reliability coefficients for the five clinical scales ranged from .65 to .95. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to test the five-factor structure of the scales yielding acceptable fit for the total sample. Additional multigroup analyses were performed to consider items by gender. Results provided only evidence of weak factorial invariance. Constrained models showed invariance in configuration, factor loadings, and factor covariances but failed for equality of intercepts. Mean trauma scores for street youth tended to fall in the moderate to severe range on all abuse/neglect clinical scales. Females reported higher levels of abuse and neglect. Prevalence of child maltreatment of individual forms was very high with 98% of street youth reporting one or more forms; 27.4% of males and 48.9% of females reported all five forms. Results of this study support the viability of the CTQ-SF for screening maltreatment in a highly vulnerable street population. Caution is recommended when comparing prevalence estimates for male and female street youth given the failure of the strong factorial multigroup model.

  1. Simple and Reliable Method to Estimate the Fingertip Static Coefficient of Friction in Precision Grip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrea, Allan; Bulens, David Cordova; Lefevre, Philippe; Thonnard, Jean-Louis

    2016-01-01

    The static coefficient of friction (µ static ) plays an important role in dexterous object manipulation. Minimal normal force (i.e., grip force) needed to avoid dropping an object is determined by the tangential force at the fingertip-object contact and the frictional properties of the skin-object contact. Although frequently assumed to be constant for all levels of normal force (NF, the force normal to the contact), µ static actually varies nonlinearly with NF and increases at low NF levels. No method is currently available to measure the relationship between µ static and NF easily. Therefore, we propose a new method allowing the simple and reliable measurement of the fingertip µ static at different NF levels, as well as an algorithm for determining µ static from measured forces and torques. Our method is based on active, back-and-forth movements of a subject's finger on the surface of a fixed six-axis force and torque sensor. µ static is computed as the ratio of the tangential to the normal force at slip onset. A negative power law captures the relationship between µ static and NF. Our method allows the continuous estimation of µ static as a function of NF during dexterous manipulation, based on the relationship between µ static and NF measured before manipulation.

  2. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  3. A simplified Excel® algorithm for estimating the least limiting water range of soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leão Tairone Paiva

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The least limiting water range (LLWR of soils has been employed as a methodological approach for evaluation of soil physical quality in different agricultural systems, including forestry, grasslands and major crops. However, the absence of a simplified methodology for the quantification of LLWR has hampered the popularization of its use among researchers and soil managers. Taking this into account this work has the objective of proposing and describing a simplified algorithm developed in Excel® software for quantification of the LLWR, including the calculation of the critical bulk density, at which the LLWR becomes zero. Despite the simplicity of the procedures and numerical techniques of optimization used, the nonlinear regression produced reliable results when compared to those found in the literature.

  4. Reliability of estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients treated with platinum containing therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauritsen, Jakob; Gundgaard, Maria G; Mortensen, Mette S

    2014-01-01

    (median percentage error), precision (median absolute percentage error) and accuracy (p10 and p30). The precision of carboplatin dosage based on eGFR was calculated. Data on mGFR, eGFR, and PCr were available in 390 patients, with a total of ∼ 1,600 measurements. Median PCr and mGFR synchronically...... decreased after chemotherapy, yielding high bias and low precision of most estimates. Post-chemotherapy, bias ranged from -0.2% (MDRD after four cycles) to 33.8% (CKD-EPI after five cycles+), precision ranged from 11.6% (MDRD after four cycles) to 33.8% (CKD-EPI after five cycles+) and accuracy (p30) ranged...... from 37.5% (CKD-EPI after five cycles+) to 86.9% (MDRD after four cycles). Although MDRD appeared acceptable after chemotherapy because of high accuracy, this equation underestimated GFR in all other measurements. Before and years after treatment, Cockcroft-Gault and Wright offered best results...

  5. Luminescence imaging of water during proton-beam irradiation for range estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamamoto, Seiichi, E-mail: s-yama@met.nagoya-u.ac.jp; Okumura, Satoshi; Komori, Masataka [Radiological and Medical Laboratory Sciences, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya 461-8673 (Japan); Toshito, Toshiyuki [Department of Proton Therapy Physics, Nagoya Proton Therapy Center, Nagoya City West Medical Center, Nagoya 462-8508 (Japan)

    2015-11-15

    Purpose: Proton therapy has the ability to selectively deliver a dose to the target tumor, so the dose distribution should be accurately measured by a precise and efficient method. The authors found that luminescence was emitted from water during proton irradiation and conjectured that this phenomenon could be used for estimating the dose distribution. Methods: To achieve more accurate dose distribution, the authors set water phantoms on a table with a spot scanning proton therapy system and measured the luminescence images of these phantoms with a high-sensitivity, cooled charge coupled device camera during proton-beam irradiation. The authors imaged the phantoms of pure water, fluorescein solution, and an acrylic block. Results: The luminescence images of water phantoms taken during proton-beam irradiation showed clear Bragg peaks, and the measured proton ranges from the images were almost the same as those obtained with an ionization chamber. Furthermore, the image of the pure-water phantom showed almost the same distribution as the tap-water phantom, indicating that the luminescence image was not related to impurities in the water. The luminescence image of the fluorescein solution had ∼3 times higher intensity than water, with the same proton range as that of water. The luminescence image of the acrylic phantom had a 14.5% shorter proton range than that of water; the proton range in the acrylic phantom generally matched the calculated value. The luminescence images of the tap-water phantom during proton irradiation could be obtained in less than 2 s. Conclusions: Luminescence imaging during proton-beam irradiation is promising as an effective method for range estimation in proton therapy.

  6. Luminescence imaging of water during proton-beam irradiation for range estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Seiichi; Okumura, Satoshi; Komori, Masataka; Toshito, Toshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Proton therapy has the ability to selectively deliver a dose to the target tumor, so the dose distribution should be accurately measured by a precise and efficient method. The authors found that luminescence was emitted from water during proton irradiation and conjectured that this phenomenon could be used for estimating the dose distribution. Methods: To achieve more accurate dose distribution, the authors set water phantoms on a table with a spot scanning proton therapy system and measured the luminescence images of these phantoms with a high-sensitivity, cooled charge coupled device camera during proton-beam irradiation. The authors imaged the phantoms of pure water, fluorescein solution, and an acrylic block. Results: The luminescence images of water phantoms taken during proton-beam irradiation showed clear Bragg peaks, and the measured proton ranges from the images were almost the same as those obtained with an ionization chamber. Furthermore, the image of the pure-water phantom showed almost the same distribution as the tap-water phantom, indicating that the luminescence image was not related to impurities in the water. The luminescence image of the fluorescein solution had ∼3 times higher intensity than water, with the same proton range as that of water. The luminescence image of the acrylic phantom had a 14.5% shorter proton range than that of water; the proton range in the acrylic phantom generally matched the calculated value. The luminescence images of the tap-water phantom during proton irradiation could be obtained in less than 2 s. Conclusions: Luminescence imaging during proton-beam irradiation is promising as an effective method for range estimation in proton therapy

  7. A state-and-transition simulation modeling approach for estimating the historical range of variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kori Blankenship

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Reference ecological conditions offer important context for land managers as they assess the condition of their landscapes and provide benchmarks for desired future conditions. State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs are commonly used to estimate reference conditions that can be used to evaluate current ecosystem conditions and to guide land management decisions and activities. The LANDFIRE program created more than 1,000 STSMs and used them to assess departure from a mean reference value for ecosystems in the United States. While the mean provides a useful benchmark, land managers and researchers are often interested in the range of variability around the mean. This range, frequently referred to as the historical range of variability (HRV, offers model users improved understanding of ecosystem function, more information with which to evaluate ecosystem change and potentially greater flexibility in management options. We developed a method for using LANDFIRE STSMs to estimate the HRV around the mean reference condition for each model state in ecosystems by varying the fire probabilities. The approach is flexible and can be adapted for use in a variety of ecosystems. HRV analysis can be combined with other information to help guide complex land management decisions.

  8. A Comparison of the Approaches of Generalizability Theory and Item Response Theory in Estimating the Reliability of Test Scores for Testlet-Composed Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Guemin; Park, In-Yong

    2012-01-01

    Previous assessments of the reliability of test scores for testlet-composed tests have indicated that item-based estimation methods overestimate reliability. This study was designed to address issues related to the extent to which item-based estimation methods overestimate the reliability of test scores composed of testlets and to compare several…

  9. An Efficient and Reliable Statistical Method for Estimating Functional Connectivity in Large Scale Brain Networks Using Partial Correlation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yikai; Kang, Jian; Kemmer, Phebe B; Guo, Ying

    2016-01-01

    Currently, network-oriented analysis of fMRI data has become an important tool for understanding brain organization and brain networks. Among the range of network modeling methods, partial correlation has shown great promises in accurately detecting true brain network connections. However, the application of partial correlation in investigating brain connectivity, especially in large-scale brain networks, has been limited so far due to the technical challenges in its estimation. In this paper, we propose an efficient and reliable statistical method for estimating partial correlation in large-scale brain network modeling. Our method derives partial correlation based on the precision matrix estimated via Constrained L1-minimization Approach (CLIME), which is a recently developed statistical method that is more efficient and demonstrates better performance than the existing methods. To help select an appropriate tuning parameter for sparsity control in the network estimation, we propose a new Dens-based selection method that provides a more informative and flexible tool to allow the users to select the tuning parameter based on the desired sparsity level. Another appealing feature of the Dens-based method is that it is much faster than the existing methods, which provides an important advantage in neuroimaging applications. Simulation studies show that the Dens-based method demonstrates comparable or better performance with respect to the existing methods in network estimation. We applied the proposed partial correlation method to investigate resting state functional connectivity using rs-fMRI data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) study. Our results show that partial correlation analysis removed considerable between-module marginal connections identified by full correlation analysis, suggesting these connections were likely caused by global effects or common connection to other nodes. Based on partial correlation, we find that the most significant

  10. Estimating the reliability of glycemic index values and potential sources of methodological and biological variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthan, Nirupa R; Ausman, Lynne M; Meng, Huicui; Tighiouart, Hocine; Lichtenstein, Alice H

    2016-10-01

    The utility of glycemic index (GI) values for chronic disease risk management remains controversial. Although absolute GI value determinations for individual foods have been shown to vary significantly in individuals with diabetes, there is a dearth of data on the reliability of GI value determinations and potential sources of variability among healthy adults. We examined the intra- and inter-individual variability in glycemic response to a single food challenge and methodologic and biological factors that potentially mediate this response. The GI value for white bread was determined by using standardized methodology in 63 volunteers free from chronic disease and recruited to differ by sex, age (18-85 y), and body mass index [BMI (in kg/m 2 ): 20-35]. Volunteers randomly underwent 3 sets of food challenges involving glucose (reference) and white bread (test food), both providing 50 g available carbohydrates. Serum glucose and insulin were monitored for 5 h postingestion, and GI values were calculated by using different area under the curve (AUC) methods. Biochemical variables were measured by using standard assays and body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The mean ± SD GI value for white bread was 62 ± 15 when calculated by using the recommended method. Mean intra- and interindividual CVs were 20% and 25%, respectively. Increasing sample size, replication of reference and test foods, and length of blood sampling, as well as AUC calculation method, did not improve the CVs. Among the biological factors assessed, insulin index and glycated hemoglobin values explained 15% and 16% of the variability in mean GI value for white bread, respectively. These data indicate that there is substantial variability in individual responses to GI value determinations, demonstrating that it is unlikely to be a good approach to guiding food choices. Additionally, even in healthy individuals, glycemic status significantly contributes to the variability in GI value

  11. Integration of external estimated breeding values and associated reliabilities using correlations among traits and effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenplas, J; Colinet, F G; Glorieux, G; Bertozzi, C; Gengler, N

    2015-12-01

    Based on a Bayesian view of linear mixed models, several studies showed the possibilities to integrate estimated breeding values (EBV) and associated reliabilities (REL) provided by genetic evaluations performed outside a given evaluation system into this genetic evaluation. Hereafter, the term "internal" refers to this given genetic evaluation system, and the term "external" refers to all other genetic evaluations performed outside the internal evaluation system. Bayesian approaches integrate external information (i.e., external EBV and associated REL) by altering both the mean and (co)variance of the prior distributions of the additive genetic effects based on the knowledge of this external information. Extensions of the Bayesian approaches to multivariate settings are interesting because external information expressed on other scales, measurement units, or trait definitions, or associated with different heritabilities and genetic parameters than the internal traits, could be integrated into a multivariate genetic evaluation without the need to convert external information to the internal traits. Therefore, the aim of this study was to test the integration of external EBV and associated REL, expressed on a 305-d basis and genetically correlated with a trait of interest, into a multivariate genetic evaluation using a random regression test-day model for the trait of interest. The approach we used was a multivariate Bayesian approach. Results showed that the integration of external information led to a genetic evaluation for the trait of interest for, at least, animals associated with external information, as accurate as a bivariate evaluation including all available phenotypic information. In conclusion, the multivariate Bayesian approaches have the potential to integrate external information correlated with the internal phenotypic traits, and potentially to the different random regressions, into a multivariate genetic evaluation. This allows the use of different

  12. Methods to estimate distribution and range extent of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Gunther, Kerry A.; Cain, Steven L.; Tyers, Daniel B.; Frey, Kevin L.; Aber, Bryan C.

    2014-01-01

    The distribution of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population has expanded into areas unoccupied since the early 20th century. Up-to-date information on the area and extent of this distribution is crucial for federal, state, and tribal wildlife and land managers to make informed decisions regarding grizzly bear management. The most recent estimate of grizzly bear distribution (2004) utilized fixed-kernel density estimators to describe distribution. This method was complex and computationally time consuming and excluded observations of unmarked bears. Our objective was to develop a technique to estimate grizzly bear distribution that would allow for the use of all verified grizzly bear location data, as well as provide the simplicity to be updated more frequently. We placed all verified grizzly bear locations from all sources from 1990 to 2004 and 1990 to 2010 onto a 3-km × 3-km grid and used zonal analysis and ordinary kriging to develop a predicted surface of grizzly bear distribution. We compared the area and extent of the 2004 kriging surface with the previous 2004 effort and evaluated changes in grizzly bear distribution from 2004 to 2010. The 2004 kriging surface was 2.4% smaller than the previous fixed-kernel estimate, but more closely represented the data. Grizzly bear distribution increased 38.3% from 2004 to 2010, with most expansion in the northern and southern regions of the range. This technique can be used to provide a current estimate of grizzly bear distribution for management and conservation applications.

  13. Reliability Estimation with Uncertainties Consideration for High Power IGBTs in 2.3 MW Wind Turbine Converter System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Ma, Ke

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the lifetime of high power IGBTs (insulated gate bipolar transistors) used in large wind turbine applications. Since the IGBTs are critical components in a wind turbine power converter, it is of great importance to assess their reliability in the design phase of the turbine....... Minimum, maximum and average junction temperatures profiles for the grid side IGBTs are estimated at each wind speed input values. The selected failure mechanism is the crack propagation in solder joint under the silicon die. Based on junction temperature profiles and physics of failure model......, the probabilistic and determinist damage models are presented with estimated fatigue lives. Reliably levels were assessed by means of First Order Reliability Method taking into account uncertainties....

  14. A flexible latent class approach to estimating test-score reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Palm, D.W.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.

    2014-01-01

    The latent class reliability coefficient (LCRC) is improved by using the divisive latent class model instead of the unrestricted latent class model. This results in the divisive latent class reliability coefficient (DLCRC), which unlike LCRC avoids making subjective decisions about the best solution

  15. On estimation of reliability of a nuclear power plant with tokamak reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemin, A.I.; Smetannikov, V.P.; Shiverskij, E.A.

    1982-01-01

    The results of the analysis of INTOR plant reliability are presented. The first stage of the analysis consists in the calculation of the INTOR plant structural reliability factors (15 ibs main systems have been considered). For each system the failure flow parameter (W(1/h)) and operational readiness Ksub(r) have been determined which for the plant as a whole besides these factors-technological utilization coefficient Ksub(TU) and mean-cycles-between failures Tsub(o). The second stage of the reliability analysis consists in investigating methods of improving its reliability factors reratively to the one calculated at the first level stage. It is shown that the reliability of the whole plant to the most essential extent is determined by the power supply system reliability. The following as to the influence extent on the INTOR plant reliability is the cryogenic system. Calculations of the INTOR plant reliability factors have given the following values: W=4,5x10 -3 1/h. Tsub(o)=152 h, Ksub(r)=0,71, Ksub(TU)=o,4 g

  16. Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range

    OpenAIRE

    Wan, Xiang; Wang, Wenqian; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

    2014-01-01

    Background In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. Methods In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in ...

  17. Range camera on conveyor belts: estimating size distribution and systematic errors due to occlusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomquist, Mats; Wernersson, Ake V.

    1999-11-01

    When range cameras are used for analyzing irregular material on a conveyor belt there will be complications like missing segments caused by occlusion. Also, a number of range discontinuities will be present. In a frame work towards stochastic geometry, conditions are found for the cases when range discontinuities take place. The test objects in this paper are pellets for the steel industry. An illuminating laser plane will give range discontinuities at the edges of each individual object. These discontinuities are used to detect and measure the chord created by the intersection of the laser plane and the object. From the measured chords we derive the average diameter and its variance. An improved method is to use a pair of parallel illuminating light planes to extract two chords. The estimation error for this method is not larger than the natural shape fluctuations (the difference in diameter) for the pellets. The laser- camera optronics is sensitive enough both for material on a conveyor belt and free falling material leaving the conveyor.

  18. Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

    2017-12-01

    Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

  19. Nuclear reactor component populations, reliability data bases, and their relationship to failure rate estimation and uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.; Beckman, R.J.

    1981-12-01

    Probabilistic risk analyses are used to assess the risks inherent in the operation of existing and proposed nuclear power reactors. In performing such risk analyses the failure rates of various components which are used in a variety of reactor systems must be estimated. These failure rate estimates serve as input to fault trees and event trees used in the analyses. Component failure rate estimation is often based on relevant field failure data from different reliability data sources such as LERs, NPRDS, and the In-Plant Data Program. Various statistical data analysis and estimation methods have been proposed over the years to provide the required estimates of the component failure rates. This report discusses the basis and extent to which statistical methods can be used to obtain component failure rate estimates. The report is expository in nature and focuses on the general philosophical basis for such statistical methods. Various terms and concepts are defined and illustrated by means of numerous simple examples

  20. Estimation of a melting probe's penetration velocity range to reach icy moons' subsurface ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erokhina, Olga; Chumachenko, Eugene

    2014-05-01

    In modern space science one of the actual branches is icy satellites explorations. The main interest is concentrated around Jovian's moons Europa and Ganymede, Saturn's moons Titan and Enceladus that are covered by thick icy layer according to "Voyager1", "Voyager2", "Galileo" and "Cassini" missions. There is a big possibility that under icy shell could be a deep ocean. Also conditions on these satellites allow speculating about possible habitability, and considering these moons from an astrobiological point of view. One of the possible tasks of planned missions is a subsurface study. For this goal it is necessary to design special equipment that could be suitable for planetary application. One of the possible means is to use a melting probe which operates by melting and moves by gravitational force. Such a probe should be relatively small, should not weight too much and should require not too much energy. In terrestrial case such kind of probe has been successfully used for glaciers study. And it is possible to extrapolate the usage of such probe to extraterrestrial application. One of the tasks is to estimate melting probe's penetration velocity. Although there are other unsolved problems such as analyzing how the probe will move in low gravity and low atmospheric pressure; knowing whether hole will be closed or not when probe penetrate thick enough; and considering what order could be a penetration velocity. This study explores two techniques of melting probe's movement. One of them based on elasto-plastic theory and so-called "solid water" theory, and other one takes phase changing into account. These two techniques allow estimating melting probe's velocity range and study whole process. Based on these technique several cases of melting probe movement were considered, melting probe's velocity range estimated, influence of different factors studied and discussed and an easy way to optimize parameters of the melting probe proposed.

  1. Reliability of different mark-recapture methods for population size estimation tested against reference population sizes constructed from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret Grimm

    Full Text Available Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK. If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2. Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to

  2. Validity of eyeball estimation for range of motion during the cervical flexion rotation test compared to an ultrasound-based movement analysis system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Axel; Lüdtke, Kerstin; Breuel, Franziska; Gerloff, Nikolas; Knust, Maren; Kollitsch, Christian; Laukart, Alex; Matej, Laura; Müller, Antje; Schöttker-Königer, Thomas; Hall, Toby

    2018-08-01

    Headache is a common and costly health problem. Although pathogenesis of headache is heterogeneous, one reported contributing factor is dysfunction of the upper cervical spine. The flexion rotation test (FRT) is a commonly used diagnostic test to detect upper cervical movement impairment. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate concurrent validity of detecting high cervical ROM impairment during the FRT by comparing measurements established by an ultrasound-based system (gold standard) with eyeball estimation. Secondary aim was to investigate intra-rater reliability of FRT ROM eyeball estimation. The examiner (6 years experience) was blinded to the data from the ultrasound-based device and to the symptoms of the patients. FRT test result (positive or negative) was based on visual estimation of range of rotation less than 34° to either side. Concurrently, range of rotation was evaluated using the ultrasound-based device. A total of 43 subjects with headache (79% female), mean age of 35.05 years (SD 13.26) were included. According to the International Headache Society Classification 23 subjects had migraine, 4 tension type headache, and 16 multiple headache forms. Sensitivity and specificity were 0.96 and 0.89 for combined rotation, indicating good concurrent reliability. The area under the ROC curve was 0.95 (95% CI 0.91-0.98) for rotation to both sides. Intra-rater reliability for eyeball estimation was excellent with Fleiss Kappa 0.79 for right rotation and left rotation. The results of this study indicate that the FRT is a valid and reliable test to detect impairment of upper cervical ROM in patients with headache.

  3. The mechanical behavior and reliability prediction of the HTR graphite component at various temperature and neutron dose ranges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiang; Yu, Suyuan; Wang, Haitao; Li, Chenfeng

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The mechanical behavior of graphite component in HTRs under high temperature and neutron irradiation conditions is simulated. • The computational process of mechanical analysis is introduced. • Deformation, stresses and failure probability of the graphite component are obtained and discussed. • Various temperature and neutron dose ranges are selected in order to investigate the effect of in-core conditions on the results. - Abstract: In a pebble-bed high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR), nuclear graphite serves as the main structural material of the side reflectors. The reactor core is made up of a large number of graphite bricks. In the normal operation case of the reactor, the maximum temperature of the helium coolant commonly reaches about 750 °C. After around 30 years’ full power operation, the peak value of in-core fast neutron cumulative dose reaches to 1 × 10 22 n cm −2 (EDN). Such high temperature and neutron irradiation strongly impact the behavior of graphite component, causing obvious deformation. The temperature and neutron dose are unevenly distributed inside a graphite brick, resulting in stress concentrations. The deformation and stress concentration can both greatly affect safety and reliability of the graphite component. In addition, most of the graphite properties (such as Young's modulus and coefficient of thermal expansion) change remarkably under high temperature and neutron irradiations. The irradiation-induced creep also plays a very important role during the whole process, and provides a significant impact on the stress accumulation. In order to simulate the behavior of graphite component under various in-core conditions, all of the above factors must be considered carefully. In this paper, the deformation, stress distribution and failure probability of a side graphite component are studied at various temperature points and neutron dose levels. 400 °C, 500 °C, 600 °C and 750 °C are selected as the

  4. On the skill of various ensemble spread estimators for probabilistic short range wind forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kann, A.

    2012-05-01

    A variety of applications ranging from civil protection associated with severe weather to economical interests are heavily dependent on meteorological information. For example, a precise planning of the energy supply with a high share of renewables requires detailed meteorological information on high temporal and spatial resolution. With respect to wind power, detailed analyses and forecasts of wind speed are of crucial interest for the energy management. Although the applicability and the current skill of state-of-the-art probabilistic short range forecasts has increased during the last years, ensemble systems still show systematic deficiencies which limit its practical use. This paper presents methods to improve the ensemble skill of 10-m wind speed forecasts by combining deterministic information from a nowcasting system on very high horizontal resolution with uncertainty estimates from a limited area ensemble system. It is shown for a one month validation period that a statistical post-processing procedure (a modified non-homogeneous Gaussian regression) adds further skill to the probabilistic forecasts, especially beyond the nowcasting range after +6 h.

  5. The juvenile face as a suitable age indicator in child pornography cases: a pilot study on the reliability of automated and visual estimation approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnayake, M; Obertová, Z; Dose, M; Gabriel, P; Bröker, H M; Brauckmann, M; Barkus, A; Rizgeliene, R; Tutkuviene, J; Ritz-Timme, S; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    In cases of suspected child pornography, the age of the victim represents a crucial factor for legal prosecution. The conventional methods for age estimation provide unreliable age estimates, particularly if teenage victims are concerned. In this pilot study, the potential of age estimation for screening purposes is explored for juvenile faces. In addition to a visual approach, an automated procedure is introduced, which has the ability to rapidly scan through large numbers of suspicious image data in order to trace juvenile faces. Age estimations were performed by experts, non-experts and the Demonstrator of a developed software on frontal facial images of 50 females aged 10-19 years from Germany, Italy, and Lithuania. To test the accuracy, the mean absolute error (MAE) between the estimates and the real ages was calculated for each examiner and the Demonstrator. The Demonstrator achieved the lowest MAE (1.47 years) for the 50 test images. Decreased image quality had no significant impact on the performance and classification results. The experts delivered slightly less accurate MAE (1.63 years). Throughout the tested age range, both the manual and the automated approach led to reliable age estimates within the limits of natural biological variability. The visual analysis of the face produces reasonably accurate age estimates up to the age of 18 years, which is the legally relevant age threshold for victims in cases of pedo-pornography. This approach can be applied in conjunction with the conventional methods for a preliminary age estimation of juveniles depicted on images.

  6. An application of the fault tree analysis for the power system reliability estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.

    2007-01-01

    The power system is a complex system with its main function to produce, transfer and provide consumers with electrical energy. Combinations of failures of components in the system can result in a failure of power delivery to certain load points and in some cases in a full blackout of power system. The power system reliability directly affects safe and reliable operation of nuclear power plants because the loss of offsite power is a significant contributor to the core damage frequency in probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants. The method, which is based on the integration of the fault tree analysis with the analysis of the power flows in the power system, was developed and implemented for power system reliability assessment. The main contributors to the power system reliability are identified, both quantitatively and qualitatively. (author)

  7. Reliability and concurrent validity of a Smartphone, bubble inclinometer and motion analysis system for measurement of hip joint range of motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton, Paula C; Mentiplay, Benjamin F; Pua, Yong-Hao; Clark, Ross A

    2015-05-01

    Traditional methods of assessing joint range of motion (ROM) involve specialized tools that may not be widely available to clinicians. This study assesses the reliability and validity of a custom Smartphone application for assessing hip joint range of motion. Intra-tester reliability with concurrent validity. Passive hip joint range of motion was recorded for seven different movements in 20 males on two separate occasions. Data from a Smartphone, bubble inclinometer and a three dimensional motion analysis (3DMA) system were collected simultaneously. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), coefficients of variation (CV) and standard error of measurement (SEM) were used to assess reliability. To assess validity of the Smartphone application and the bubble inclinometer against the three dimensional motion analysis system, intraclass correlation coefficients and fixed and proportional biases were used. The Smartphone demonstrated good to excellent reliability (ICCs>0.75) for four out of the seven movements, and moderate to good reliability for the remaining three movements (ICC=0.63-0.68). Additionally, the Smartphone application displayed comparable reliability to the bubble inclinometer. The Smartphone application displayed excellent validity when compared to the three dimensional motion analysis system for all movements (ICCs>0.88) except one, which displayed moderate to good validity (ICC=0.71). Smartphones are portable and widely available tools that are mostly reliable and valid for assessing passive hip range of motion, with potential for large-scale use when a bubble inclinometer is not available. However, caution must be taken in its implementation as some movement axes demonstrated only moderate reliability. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Statistical methods for estimating normal blood chemistry ranges and variance in rainbow trout (Salmo gairdneri), Shasta Strain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedemeyer, Gary A.; Nelson, Nancy C.

    1975-01-01

    Gaussian and nonparametric (percentile estimate and tolerance interval) statistical methods were used to estimate normal ranges for blood chemistry (bicarbonate, bilirubin, calcium, hematocrit, hemoglobin, magnesium, mean cell hemoglobin concentration, osmolality, inorganic phosphorus, and pH for juvenile rainbow (Salmo gairdneri, Shasta strain) trout held under defined environmental conditions. The percentile estimate and Gaussian methods gave similar normal ranges, whereas the tolerance interval method gave consistently wider ranges for all blood variables except hemoglobin. If the underlying frequency distribution is unknown, the percentile estimate procedure would be the method of choice.

  9. On the q-Weibull distribution for reliability applications: An adaptive hybrid artificial bee colony algorithm for parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Meng; Droguett, Enrique López; Lins, Isis Didier; Chagas Moura, Márcio das

    2017-01-01

    The q-Weibull model is based on the Tsallis non-extensive entropy and is able to model various behaviors of the hazard rate function, including bathtub curves, by using a single set of parameters. Despite its flexibility, the q-Weibull has not been widely used in reliability applications partly because of the complicated parameters estimation. In this work, the parameters of the q-Weibull are estimated by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Due to the intricate system of nonlinear equations, derivative-based optimization methods may fail to converge. Thus, the heuristic optimization method of artificial bee colony (ABC) is used instead. To deal with the slow convergence of ABC, it is proposed an adaptive hybrid ABC (AHABC) algorithm that dynamically combines Nelder-Mead simplex search method with ABC for the ML estimation of the q-Weibull parameters. Interval estimates for the q-Weibull parameters, including confidence intervals based on the ML asymptotic theory and on bootstrap methods, are also developed. The AHABC is validated via numerical experiments involving the q-Weibull ML for reliability applications and results show that it produces faster and more accurate convergence when compared to ABC and similar approaches. The estimation procedure is applied to real reliability failure data characterized by a bathtub-shaped hazard rate. - Highlights: • Development of an Adaptive Hybrid ABC (AHABC) algorithm for q-Weibull distribution. • AHABC combines local Nelder-Mead simplex method with ABC to enhance local search. • AHABC efficiently finds the optimal solution for the q-Weibull ML problem. • AHABC outperforms ABC and self-adaptive hybrid ABC in accuracy and convergence speed. • Useful model for reliability data with non-monotonic hazard rate.

  10. Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turati, Pietro; Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The efficient estimation of system reliability characteristics is of paramount importance for many engineering applications. Real world system reliability modeling calls for the capability of treating systems that are: i) dynamic, ii) complex, iii) hybrid and iv) highly reliable. Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) methods offer a way to solve these types of problems, which are feasible according to the potentially high computational costs. In this paper, the REpetitive Simulation Trials After Reaching Thresholds (RESTART) method is employed, extending it to hybrid systems for the first time (to the authors’ knowledge). The estimation accuracy and precision of RESTART highly depend on the choice of the Importance Function (IF) indicating how close the system is to failure: in this respect, proper IFs are here originally proposed to improve the performance of RESTART for the analysis of hybrid systems. The resulting overall simulation approach is applied to estimate the probability of failure of the control system of a liquid hold-up tank and of a pump-valve subsystem subject to degradation induced by fatigue. The results are compared to those obtained by standard MC simulation and by RESTART with classical IFs available in the literature. The comparison shows the improvement in the performance obtained by our approach. - Highlights: • We consider the issue of estimating small failure probabilities in dynamic systems. • We employ the RESTART method to estimate the failure probabilities. • New Importance Functions (IFs) are introduced to increase the method performance. • We adopt two dynamic, hybrid, highly reliable systems as case studies. • A comparison with literature IFs proves the effectiveness of the new IFs.

  11. Reliable Prediction with Tuned Range-Separated Functionals of the Singlet-Triplet Gap in Organic Emitters for Thermally Activated Delayed Fluorescence (TADF)

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Haitao

    2015-07-09

    The thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) mechanism has recently attracted much interest in the field of organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs). TADF relies on the presence of a very small energy gap between the lowest singlet and triplet excited states. Here, we demonstrate that time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) in the Tamm-Dancoff Approximation can be very successful in the calculations of the lowest singlet and triplet excitation energies and the corresponding singlet-triplet gap when using nonempirically tuned range-separated functionals. Such functionals provide very good estimates in a series of 17 molecules used in TADF-based OLED devices, with mean absolute deviations of 0.15 eV for the vertical singlet excitation energies and 0.09 eV [0.07 eV] for the adiabatic [vertical] singlet-triplet energy gaps as well as low relative errors and high correlation coefficients compared to the corresponding experimental values. They significantly outperform conventional functionals, a feature which is rationalized on the basis of the amount of exact-exchange included and the delocalization error. The present work provides a reliable theoretical tool for the prediction and development of novel TADF-based materials with low singlet-triplet energetic splittings.

  12. Application of Fault Tree Analysis for Estimating Temperature Alarm Circuit Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Shanshoury, A.I.; El-Shanshoury, G.I.

    2011-01-01

    Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of the most widely-used methods in system reliability analysis. It is a graphical technique that provides a systematic description of the combinations of possible occurrences in a system, which can result in an undesirable outcome. The presented paper deals with the application of FTA method in analyzing temperature alarm circuit. The criticality failure of this circuit comes from failing to alarm when temperature exceeds a certain limit. In order for a circuit to be safe, a detailed analysis of the faults causing circuit failure is performed by configuring fault tree diagram (qualitative analysis). Calculations of circuit quantitative reliability parameters such as Failure Rate (FR) and Mean Time between Failures (MTBF) are also done by using Relex 2009 computer program. Benefits of FTA are assessing system reliability or safety during operation, improving understanding of the system, and identifying root causes of equipment failures

  13. Estimating Value of Congestion and of Reliability from Observation of Route Choice Behavior of Car Drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, a consensus has been reached about the relevance of calculating the value of congestion and the value of reliability for better understanding and therefore better prediction of travel behavior. The current study proposed a revealed preference approach that used a large amount...... both congestion and reliability terms. Results illustrated that the value of time and the value of congestion were significantly higher in the peak period because of possible higher penalties for drivers being late and consequently possible higher time pressure. Moreover, results showed...... that the marginal rate of substitution between travel time reliability and total travel time did not vary across periods and traffic conditions, with the obvious caveat that the absolute values were significantly higher for the peak period. Last, results showed the immense potential of exploiting the growing...

  14. Estimating The Reliability of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Flash X-ray (FXR) Machine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ong, M M; Kihara, R; Zentler, J M; Kreitzer, B R; DeHope, W J

    2007-01-01

    At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), our flash X-ray accelerator (FXR) is used on multi-million dollar hydrodynamic experiments. Because of the importance of the radiographs, FXR must be ultra-reliable. Flash linear accelerators that can generate a 3 kA beam at 18 MeV are very complex. They have thousands, if not millions, of critical components that could prevent the machine from performing correctly. For the last five years, we have quantified and are tracking component failures. From this data, we have determined that the reliability of the high-voltage gas-switches that initiate the pulses, which drive the accelerator cells, dominates the statistics. The failure mode is a single-switch pre-fire that reduces the energy of the beam and degrades the X-ray spot-size. The unfortunate result is a lower resolution radiograph. FXR is a production machine that allows only a modest number of pulses for testing. Therefore, reliability switch testing that requires thousands of shots is performed on our test stand. Study of representative switches has produced pre-fire statistical information and probability distribution curves. This information is applied to FXR to develop test procedures and determine individual switch reliability using a minimal number of accelerator pulses

  15. R&D program benefits estimation: DOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2006-12-04

    The overall mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) is to lead national efforts to modernize the electric grid, enhance the security and reliability of the energy infrastructure, and facilitate recovery from disruptions to the energy supply. In support of this mission, OE conducts a portfolio of research and development (R&D) activities to advance technologies to enhance electric power delivery. Multiple benefits are anticipated to result from the deployment of these technologies, including higher quality and more reliable power, energy savings, and lower cost electricity. In addition, OE engages State and local government decision-makers and the private sector to address issues related to the reliability and security of the grid, including responding to national emergencies that affect energy delivery. The OE R&D activities are comprised of four R&D lines: High Temperature Superconductivity (HTS), Visualization and Controls (V&C), Energy Storage and Power Electronics (ES&PE), and Distributed Systems Integration (DSI).

  16. Estimation of electromagnetic pumps reliability based on the results of their exploitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vitkovskij, I.V.; Kirillov, I.R.; Chajka, P.Yu.; Kryuchkov, E.A.; Poplavskij, V.M.; Nosov, Yu.V.; Oshkanov, N.N.

    2007-01-01

    Main factors, determining the service life of induction electromagnetic pumps (IEP), are analyzed. It is shown that the IEP serviceability depends mainly on the winding reliability. The main damaging factors, acting on the windings, are noted. The expressions for calculation of the failure intensity for the coil and case insulations are obtained [ru

  17. Attenuation of the Squared Canonical Correlation Coefficient under Varying Estimates of Score Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Celia M.

    2010-01-01

    Research pertaining to the distortion of the squared canonical correlation coefficient has traditionally been limited to the effects of sampling error and associated correction formulas. The purpose of this study was to compare the degree of attenuation of the squared canonical correlation coefficient under varying conditions of score reliability.…

  18. Reliability and validity of food portion size estimation from images using manual flexible digital virtual meshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    The eButton takes frontal images at 4 second intervals throughout the day. A three-dimensional (3D) manually administered wire mesh procedure has been developed to quantify portion sizes from the two-dimensional (2D) images. This paper reports a test of the interrater reliability and validity of use...

  19. Application of fuzzy-MOORA method: Ranking of components for reliability estimation of component-based software systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeeshan Ali Siddiqui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Component-based software system (CBSS development technique is an emerging discipline that promises to take software development into a new era. As hardware systems are presently being constructed from kits of parts, software systems may also be assembled from components. It is more reliable to reuse software than to create. It is the glue code and individual components reliability that contribute to the reliability of the overall system. Every component contributes to overall system reliability according to the number of times it is being used, some components are of critical usage, known as usage frequency of component. The usage frequency decides the weight of each component. According to their weights, each component contributes to the overall reliability of the system. Therefore, ranking of components may be obtained by analyzing their reliability impacts on overall application. In this paper, we propose the application of fuzzy multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis, Fuzzy-MOORA. The method helps us find the best suitable alternative, software component, from a set of available feasible alternatives named software components. It is an accurate and easy to understand tool for solving multi-criteria decision making problems that have imprecise and vague evaluation data. By the use of ratio analysis, the proposed method determines the most suitable alternative among all possible alternatives, and dimensionless measurement will realize the job of ranking of components for estimating CBSS reliability in a non-subjective way. Finally, three case studies are shown to illustrate the use of the proposed technique.

  20. Reliability of knee joint range of motion and circumference measurements after total knee arthroplasty: does tester experience matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Thomas Linding; Christensen, Malene; Christensen, Stine Sommer

    2010-01-01

    : The design was an intra-tester, inter-tester and intra-day reliability study. Nineteen outpatients (10 females) having received a TKA were examined by an inexperienced and an experienced physiotherapist. Following a standardized protocol, active and passive knee joint ROM and circumference measurements were...

  1. Reliability and validity of CODA motion analysis system for measuring cervical range of motion in patients with cervical spondylosis and anterior cervical fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zhongyang; Song, Hui; Ren, Fenggang; Li, Yuhuan; Wang, Dong; He, Xijing

    2017-12-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of the Cartesian Optoelectronic Dynamic Anthropometer (CODA) motion system in measuring the cervical range of motion (ROM) and verify the construct validity of the CODA motion system. A total of 26 patients with cervical spondylosis and 22 patients with anterior cervical fusion were enrolled and the CODA motion analysis system was used to measure the three-dimensional cervical ROM. Intra- and inter-rater reliability was assessed by interclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), standard error of measurement (SEm), Limits of Agreements (LOA) and minimal detectable change (MDC). Independent samples t-tests were performed to examine the differences of cervical ROM between cervical spondylosis and anterior cervical fusion patients. The results revealed that in the cervical spondylosis group, the reliability was almost perfect (intra-rater reliability: ICC, 0.87-0.95; LOA, -12.86-13.70; SEm, 2.97-4.58; inter-rater reliability: ICC, 0.84-0.95; LOA, -13.09-13.48; SEm, 3.13-4.32). In the anterior cervical fusion group, the reliability was high (intra-rater reliability: ICC, 0.88-0.97; LOA, -10.65-11.08; SEm, 2.10-3.77; inter-rater reliability: ICC, 0.86-0.96; LOA, -10.91-13.66; SEm, 2.20-4.45). The cervical ROM in the cervical spondylosis group was significantly higher than that in the anterior cervical fusion group in all directions except for left rotation. In conclusion, the CODA motion analysis system is highly reliable in measuring cervical ROM and the construct validity was verified, as the system was sufficiently sensitive to distinguish between the cervical spondylosis and anterior cervical fusion groups based on their ROM.

  2. Automatic training and reliability estimation for 3D ASM applied to cardiac MRI segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobon-Gomez, Catalina; Sukno, Federico M; Butakoff, Constantine; Huguet, Marina; Frangi, Alejandro F

    2012-07-07

    Training active shape models requires collecting manual ground-truth meshes in a large image database. While shape information can be reused across multiple imaging modalities, intensity information needs to be imaging modality and protocol specific. In this context, this study has two main purposes: (1) to test the potential of using intensity models learned from MRI simulated datasets and (2) to test the potential of including a measure of reliability during the matching process to increase robustness. We used a population of 400 virtual subjects (XCAT phantom), and two clinical populations of 40 and 45 subjects. Virtual subjects were used to generate simulated datasets (MRISIM simulator). Intensity models were trained both on simulated and real datasets. The trained models were used to segment the left ventricle (LV) and right ventricle (RV) from real datasets. Segmentations were also obtained with and without reliability information. Performance was evaluated with point-to-surface and volume errors. Simulated intensity models obtained average accuracy comparable to inter-observer variability for LV segmentation. The inclusion of reliability information reduced volume errors in hypertrophic patients (EF errors from 17 ± 57% to 10 ± 18%; LV MASS errors from -27 ± 22 g to -14 ± 25 g), and in heart failure patients (EF errors from -8 ± 42% to -5 ± 14%). The RV model of the simulated images needs further improvement to better resemble image intensities around the myocardial edges. Both for real and simulated models, reliability information increased segmentation robustness without penalizing accuracy.

  3. Bayesian Reliability Estimation for Deteriorating Systems with Limited Samples Using the Maximum Entropy Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao, Ning-Cong; Li, Yan-Feng; Wang, Zhonglai; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the combinations of maximum entropy method and Bayesian inference for reliability assessment of deteriorating system is proposed. Due to various uncertainties, less data and incomplete information, system parameters usually cannot be determined precisely. These uncertainty parameters can be modeled by fuzzy sets theory and the Bayesian inference which have been proved to be useful for deteriorating systems under small sample sizes. The maximum entropy approach can be used to cal...

  4. Availability estimation of repairable systems using reliability graph with general gates (RGGG)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goh, Gyoung Tae

    2009-02-01

    By performing risk analysis, we may obtain sufficient information about the system to redesign it and lower the probability of the occurrence of an accident or mitigate the ensuing consequences. The concept of reliability is widely used to express risk of systems. The reliability is used for non-repairable systems. But nuclear power plant systems are repairable systems. With repairable systems, repairable components can improve the availability of a system because faults that are generated in components can be recovered. Hence, the availability of the system is more proper concept in case of repairable systems. Reliability graph with general gate (RGGG) is one of the system reliability analysis methods. The RGGG is a very intuitiveness method as compared with other methods. But the RGGG has not been applied to repairable systems yet. The objective of this study is to extend the RGGG in order to enable one to analyze repairable system. Determining the probability table for each node is a critical process to calculate the system availability in the RGGG method. Therefore finding the proper algorithms and making probability tables in various situations are the major a part of this study. The other part is an example of applying RGGG method to a real system. We find the proper algorithms and probability tables for independent repairable systems, dependent series repairable systems, and k-out-of-m (K/M) redundant parallel repairable systems in this study. We can evaluate the availability of real system using these probability tables. An example for a real system is shown in the latter part of this study. For the purpose of this analysis, the charging pumps subsystem of the chemical and volume control system (CVCS) was selected. The RGGG method extended for repairable systems has the same characteristic of intuitiveness as the original RGGG method and we can confirm that the availability analysis result from the repairable RGGG method is exact

  5. Reliable Quantification of the Potential for Equations Based on Spot Urine Samples to Estimate Population Salt Intake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Liping; Crino, Michelle; Wu, Jason Hy

    2016-01-01

    to a standard format. Individual participant records will be compiled and a series of analyses will be completed to: (1) compare existing equations for estimating 24-hour salt intake from spot urine samples with 24-hour urine samples, and assess the degree of bias according to key demographic and clinical......BACKGROUND: Methods based on spot urine samples (a single sample at one time-point) have been identified as a possible alternative approach to 24-hour urine samples for determining mean population salt intake. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to identify a reliable method for estimating mean...... population salt intake from spot urine samples. This will be done by comparing the performance of existing equations against one other and against estimates derived from 24-hour urine samples. The effects of factors such as ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, antihypertensive drug use, health status...

  6. Estimation of reliability on digital plant protection system in nuclear power plants using fault simulation with self-checking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jun Seok; Kim, Suk Joon; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    Safety-critical digital systems in nuclear power plants require high design reliability. Reliable software design and accurate prediction methods for the system reliability are important problems. In the reliability analysis, the error detection coverage of the system is one of the crucial factors, however, it is difficult to evaluate the error detection coverage of digital instrumentation and control system in nuclear power plants due to complexity of the system. To evaluate the error detection coverage for high efficiency and low cost, the simulation based fault injections with self checking are needed for digital instrumentation and control system in nuclear power plants. The target system is local coincidence logic in digital plant protection system and a simplified software modeling for this target system is used in this work. C++ based hardware description of micro computer simulator system is used to evaluate the error detection coverage of the system. From the simulation result, it is possible to estimate the error detection coverage of digital plant protection system in nuclear power plants using simulation based fault injection method with self checking. (author)

  7. Reliable methods for computer simulation error control and a posteriori estimates

    CERN Document Server

    Neittaanmäki, P

    2004-01-01

    Recent decades have seen a very rapid success in developing numerical methods based on explicit control over approximation errors. It may be said that nowadays a new direction is forming in numerical analysis, the main goal of which is to develop methods ofreliable computations. In general, a reliable numerical method must solve two basic problems: (a) generate a sequence of approximations that converges to a solution and (b) verify the accuracy of these approximations. A computer code for such a method must consist of two respective blocks: solver and checker.In this book, we are chie

  8. A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

    2014-09-01

    LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

  9. Limits to the reliability of size-based fishing status estimation for data-poor stocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokkalis, Alexandros; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Nielsen, Anders

    2015-01-01

    For stocks which are considered “data-poor” no knowledge exist about growth, mortality or recruitment. The only available information is from catches. Here we examine the ability to assess the level of exploitation of a data-poor stock based only on information of the size of individuals in catches....... The model is a formulation of the classic Beverton–Holt theory in terms of size where stock parameters describing growth, natural mortality, recruitment, etc. are determined from life-history invariants. A simulation study was used to compare the reliability of assessments performed under different...... to a considerable improvement in the assessment. Overall, the simulation study demonstrates that it may be possible to classify a data-poor stock as undergoing over- or under-fishing, while the exact status, i.e., how much the fishing mortality is above or below Fmsy, can only be assessed with a substantial...

  10. Bayesian Reliability Estimation for Deteriorating Systems with Limited Samples Using the Maximum Entropy Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning-Cong Xiao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the combinations of maximum entropy method and Bayesian inference for reliability assessment of deteriorating system is proposed. Due to various uncertainties, less data and incomplete information, system parameters usually cannot be determined precisely. These uncertainty parameters can be modeled by fuzzy sets theory and the Bayesian inference which have been proved to be useful for deteriorating systems under small sample sizes. The maximum entropy approach can be used to calculate the maximum entropy density function of uncertainty parameters more accurately for it does not need any additional information and assumptions. Finally, two optimization models are presented which can be used to determine the lower and upper bounds of systems probability of failure under vague environment conditions. Two numerical examples are investigated to demonstrate the proposed method.

  11. Computational Intelligence in Software Cost Estimation: Evolving Conditional Sets of Effort Value Ranges

    OpenAIRE

    Papatheocharous, Efi; Andreou, Andreas S.

    2008-01-01

    In this approach we aimed at addressing the problem of large variances found in available historical data that are used in software cost estimation. Project data is expensive to collect, manage and maintain. Therefore, if we wish to lower the dependence of the estimation to

  12. Reliability of estimating the room volume from a single room impulse response

    OpenAIRE

    Kuster, M.

    2008-01-01

    The methods investigated for the room volume estimation are based on geometrical acoustics, eigenmode, and diffuse field models and no data other than the room impulse response are available. The measurements include several receiver positions in a total of 12 rooms of vastly different sizes and acoustic characteristics. The limitations in identifying the pivotal specular reflections of the geometrical acoustics model in measured room impulse responses are examined both theoretically and expe...

  13. Development of a reliable estimation procedure of radioactivity inventory in a BWR plant due to neutron irradiation for decommissioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanaka Ken-ichi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable information of radioactivity inventory resulted from the radiological characterization is important in order to plan decommissioning planning and is also crucial in order to promote decommissioning in effectiveness and in safe. The information is referred to by planning of decommissioning strategy and by an application to regulator. Reliable information of radioactivity inventory can be used to optimize the decommissioning processes. In order to perform the radiological characterization reliably, we improved a procedure of an evaluation of neutron-activated materials for a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR. Neutron-activated materials are calculated with calculation codes and their validity should be verified with measurements. The evaluation of neutron-activated materials can be divided into two processes. One is a distribution calculation of neutron-flux. Another is an activation calculation of materials. The distribution calculation of neutron-flux is performed with neutron transport calculation codes with appropriate cross section library to simulate neutron transport phenomena well. Using the distribution of neutron-flux, we perform distribution calculations of radioactivity concentration. We also estimate a time dependent distribution of radioactivity classification and a radioactive-waste classification. The information obtained from the evaluation is utilized by other tasks in the preparatory tasks to make the decommissioning plan and the activity safe and rational.

  14. Estimates of the burst reliability of thin-walled cylinders designed to meet the ASME Code allowables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stancampiano, P.A.; Zemanick, P.P.

    1976-01-01

    Pressure containment components in nuclear power plants are designed by the conventional deterministic safety factor approach to meet the requirements of the ASME Pressure Vessel Code, Section III. The inevitable variabilities and uncertainties associated with the design, manufacture, installation, and service processes suggest a probabilistic design approach may also be pertinent. Accordingly, the burst reliabilities of two thin-walled 304 SS cylindrical vessels such as might be employed in liquid metal plants are estimated. A large vessel fabricated from rolled plate per ASME SA-240 and a smaller pipe sized vessel also fabricated from rolled plate per ASME SA-358 are considered. The vessels are sized to just meet the allowable ASME Code primary membrance stresses at 800 0 F (427 0 C). The bursting probability that the operating pressure is greater than the burst strength of the cylinders is calculated using stress-strength interference theory by direct Monte Carlo simulation on a high speed digital computer. A sensitivity study is employed to identify those design parameters which have the greatest effect on the reliability. The effects of preservice quality assurance defect inspections on the reliability are also evaluated parametrically

  15. Development of a reliable estimation procedure of radioactivity inventory in a BWR plant due to neutron irradiation for decommissioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Ken-ichi; Ueno, Jun

    2017-09-01

    Reliable information of radioactivity inventory resulted from the radiological characterization is important in order to plan decommissioning planning and is also crucial in order to promote decommissioning in effectiveness and in safe. The information is referred to by planning of decommissioning strategy and by an application to regulator. Reliable information of radioactivity inventory can be used to optimize the decommissioning processes. In order to perform the radiological characterization reliably, we improved a procedure of an evaluation of neutron-activated materials for a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). Neutron-activated materials are calculated with calculation codes and their validity should be verified with measurements. The evaluation of neutron-activated materials can be divided into two processes. One is a distribution calculation of neutron-flux. Another is an activation calculation of materials. The distribution calculation of neutron-flux is performed with neutron transport calculation codes with appropriate cross section library to simulate neutron transport phenomena well. Using the distribution of neutron-flux, we perform distribution calculations of radioactivity concentration. We also estimate a time dependent distribution of radioactivity classification and a radioactive-waste classification. The information obtained from the evaluation is utilized by other tasks in the preparatory tasks to make the decommissioning plan and the activity safe and rational.

  16. Systematic review of survival time in experimental mouse stroke with impact on reliability of infarct estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klarskov, Carina Kirstine; Klarskov, Mikkel Buster; Hasseldam, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    infarcts with more substantial edema. Purpose: This paper will give an overview of previous studies of experimental mouse stroke, and correlate survival time to peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, investigations of whether the included studies corrected the infarct measurements for edema...... of reasons for the translational problems from mouse experimental stroke to clinical trials probably exists, including infarct size estimations around the peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, edema is a more prominent feature of stroke in mice than in humans, because of the tendency to produce larger...... of the investigated process. Our findings indicate a need for more research in this area, and establishment of common correction methodology....

  17. Formulating informative, data-based priors for failure probability estimation in reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.

    2007-01-01

    Priors play an important role in the use of Bayesian methods in risk analysis, and using all available information to formulate an informative prior can lead to more accurate posterior inferences. This paper examines the practical implications of using five different methods for formulating an informative prior for a failure probability based on past data. These methods are the method of moments, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, maximum entropy estimation, starting from a non-informative 'pre-prior', and fitting a prior based on confidence/credible interval matching. The priors resulting from the use of these different methods are compared qualitatively, and the posteriors are compared quantitatively based on a number of different scenarios of observed data used to update the priors. The results show that the amount of information assumed in the prior makes a critical difference in the accuracy of the posterior inferences. For situations in which the data used to formulate the informative prior is an accurate reflection of the data that is later observed, the ML approach yields the minimum variance posterior. However, the maximum entropy approach is more robust to differences between the data used to formulate the prior and the observed data because it maximizes the uncertainty in the prior subject to the constraints imposed by the past data

  18. Framework for estimating response time data to conduct a seismic human reliability analysis - its feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jinkyun; Kin, Yochan; Jung, Wondea; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2014-01-01

    This is because the PSA has been used for several decades as the representative tool to evaluate the safety of NPPs. To this end, it is inevitable to evaluate human error probabilities (HEPs) in conducting important tasks being considered in the PSA framework (i.e., HFEs; human failure events), which are able to significantly affect the safety of NPPs. In addition, it should be emphasized that the provision of a realistic human performance data is an important precondition for calculating HEPs under a seismic condition. Unfortunately, it seems that HRA methods being currently used for calculating HEPs under a seismic event do not properly consider the performance variation of human operators. For this reason, in this paper, a framework to estimate response time data that are critical for calculating HEPs is suggested with respect to a seismic intensity. This paper suggested a systematic framework for estimating response time data that would be one of the most critical for calculating HEPs. Although extensive review of existing literatures is indispensable for identifying response times of human operators who have to conduct a series of tasks prescribed in procedures based on a couple of wrong indications, it is highly expected that response time data for seismic HRA can be properly secured through revisiting response time data collected from diverse situations without concerning a seismic event

  19. A fast and reliable method for simultaneous waveform, amplitude and latency estimation of single-trial EEG/MEG data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wouter D Weeda

    Full Text Available The amplitude and latency of single-trial EEG/MEG signals may provide valuable information concerning human brain functioning. In this article we propose a new method to reliably estimate single-trial amplitude and latency of EEG/MEG signals. The advantages of the method are fourfold. First, no a-priori specified template function is required. Second, the method allows for multiple signals that may vary independently in amplitude and/or latency. Third, the method is less sensitive to noise as it models data with a parsimonious set of basis functions. Finally, the method is very fast since it is based on an iterative linear least squares algorithm. A simulation study shows that the method yields reliable estimates under different levels of latency variation and signal-to-noise ratioÕs. Furthermore, it shows that the existence of multiple signals can be correctly determined. An application to empirical data from a choice reaction time study indicates that the method describes these data accurately.

  20. Reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (TREALD-30).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peker, Kadriye; Köse, Taha Emre; Güray, Beliz; Uysal, Ömer; Erdem, Tamer Lütfi

    2017-04-01

    To culturally adapt the Turkish version of Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (TREALD-30) for Turkish-speaking adult dental patients and to evaluate its psychometric properties. After translation and cross-cultural adaptation, TREALD-30 was tested in a sample of 127 adult patients who attended a dental school clinic in Istanbul. Data were collected through clinical examinations and self-completed questionnaires, including TREALD-30, the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP), the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM), two health literacy screening questions, and socio-behavioral characteristics. Psychometric properties were examined using Classical Test Theory (CTT) and Rasch analysis. Internal consistency (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.91) and test-retest reliability (Intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.99) were satisfactory for TREALD-30. It exhibited good convergent and predictive validity. Monthly family income, years of education, dental flossing, health literacy, and health literacy skills were found as stronger predictors of patients'oral health literacy (OHL). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed a two-factor model. The Rasch model explained 37.9% of the total variance in this dataset. In addition, TREALD-30 had eleven misfitting items, which indicated evidence of multidimensionality. The reliability indeces provided in Rasch analysis (person separation reliability = 0.91 and expected-a-posteriori/plausible reliability = 0.94) indicated that TREALD-30 had acceptable reliability. TREALD-30 showed satisfactory psychometric properties. It may be used to identify patients with low OHL. Socio-demographic factors, oral health behaviors and health literacy skills should be taken into account when planning future studies to assess the OHL in both clinical and community settings.

  1. Intra-rater reliability of motor unit number estimation and quantitative motor unit analysis in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ives, Colleen T; Doherty, Timothy J

    2014-01-01

    To assess the intra-rater reliability of decomposition-enhanced spike-triggered averaging (DE-STA) motor unit number estimation (MUNE) and quantitative motor unit potential analysis in the upper trapezius (UT) and biceps brachii (BB) of subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and to compare the results from the UT to control data. Patients diagnosed with clinically probable or definite ALS completed the experimental protocol twice with the same evaluator for the UT (n=10) and BB (n=9). Intra-rater reliability for the UT was good for the maximum compound muscle action potential (CMAP) (ICC=0.88), mean surface-detected motor unit potential (S-MUP) (ICC=0.87) and MUNE (ICC=0.88), and for the BB was moderate for maximum CMAP (ICC=0.61), and excellent for mean S-MUP (ICC=0.94) and MUNE (ICC=0.93). A significant difference between tests was found for UT MUNE. Comparing subjects with ALS to control subjects, UT maximum CMAP (p<0.01) and MUNE (p<0.001) values were significantly lower, and mean S-MUP values significantly greater (p<0.05) in subjects with ALS. This study has demonstrated the ability of the DE-STA MUNE technique to collect highly reliable data from two separate muscle groups and to detect the underlying pathophysiology of the disease. This was the first study to examine the reliability of this technique in subjects with ALS, and demonstrates its potential for future use as an outcome measure in ALS clinical trials and studies of ALS disease severity and natural history. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Profiles into a Crop Modeling Framework for Reliable Yield Estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, V.; Cruise, J.; Mecikalski, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Much effort has been expended recently on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into operational land surface models (LSM). These efforts have normally been focused on the use of data derived from the microwave bands and results have often shown that improvements to model simulations have been limited due to the fact that microwave signals only penetrate the top 2-5 cm of the soil surface. It is possible that model simulations could be further improved through the introduction of geostationary satellite thermal infrared (TIR) based root zone soil moisture in addition to the microwave deduced surface estimates. In this study, root zone soil moisture estimates from the TIR based Atmospheric Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model were merged with NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) based surface estimates through the application of informational entropy. Entropy can be used to characterize the movement of moisture within the vadose zone and accounts for both advection and diffusion processes. The Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME) can be used to derive complete soil moisture profiles and, fortuitously, only requires a surface boundary condition as well as the overall mean moisture content of the soil column. A lower boundary can be considered a soil parameter or obtained from the LSM itself. In this study, SMAP provided the surface boundary while ALEXI supplied the mean and the entropy integral was used to tie the two together and produce the vertical profile. However, prior to the merging, the coarse resolution (9 km) SMAP data were downscaled to the finer resolution (4.7 km) ALEXI grid. The disaggregation scheme followed the Soil Evaporative Efficiency approach and again, all necessary inputs were available from the TIR model. The profiles were then assimilated into a standard agricultural crop model (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology, DSSAT) via the ensemble Kalman Filter. The study was conducted over the Southeastern United States for the

  3. Online Reliable Peak Charge/Discharge Power Estimation of Series-Connected Lithium-Ion Battery Packs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Jiang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The accurate peak power estimation of a battery pack is essential to the power-train control of electric vehicles (EVs. It helps to evaluate the maximum charge and discharge capability of the battery system, and thus to optimally control the power-train system to meet the requirement of acceleration, gradient climbing and regenerative braking while achieving a high energy efficiency. A novel online peak power estimation method for series-connected lithium-ion battery packs is proposed, which considers the influence of cell difference on the peak power of the battery packs. A new parameter identification algorithm based on adaptive ratio vectors is designed to online identify the parameters of each individual cell in a series-connected battery pack. The ratio vectors reflecting cell difference are deduced strictly based on the analysis of battery characteristics. Based on the online parameter identification, the peak power estimation considering cell difference is further developed. Some validation experiments in different battery aging conditions and with different current profiles have been implemented to verify the proposed method. The results indicate that the ratio vector-based identification algorithm can achieve the same accuracy as the repetitive RLS (recursive least squares based identification while evidently reducing the computation cost, and the proposed peak power estimation method is more effective and reliable for series-connected battery packs due to the consideration of cell difference.

  4. CO{sub 2}-recycling by plants: how reliable is the carbon isotope estimation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siegwolf, R T.W.; Saurer, M [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland); Koerner, C [Basel Univ., Basel (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    In the study of plant carbon relations, the amount of the respiratory losses from the soil was estimated, determining the gradient of the stable isotope {sup 13}C with increasing plant canopy height. According to the literature 8-26% of the CO{sub 2} released in the forests by soil and plant respiratory processes are reassimilated (recycled) by photosynthesis during the day. Our own measurements however, which we conducted in grass land showed diverging results from no indicating of carbon recycling, to a considerable {delta}{sup 13}C gradient suggesting a high carbon recycling rate. The role of other factors, such as air humidity and irradiation which influence the {delta}{sup 13}C in a canopy as well, are discussed. (author) 3 figs., 4 refs.

  5. Reliability of a self-report Italian version of the AUDIT-C questionnaire, used to estimate alcohol consumption by pregnant women in an obstetric setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazzo, Stefania; Battistella, Giuseppe; Riscica, Patrizia; Moino, Giuliana; Dal Pozzo, Giuseppe; Bottarel, Mery; Geromel, Mariasole; Czerwinsky, Loredana

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol consumption during pregnancy can result in a range of harmful effects on the developing foetus and newborn, called Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD). The identification of pregnant women who use alcohol enables to provide information, support and treatment for women and the surveillance of their children. The AUDIT-C (the shortened consumption version of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) is used for investigating risky drinking with different populations, and has been applied to estimate alcohol use and risky drinking also in antenatal clinics. The aim of the study was to investigate the reliability of a self-report Italian version of the AUDIT-C questionnaire to detect alcohol consumption during pregnancy, regardless of its use as a screening tool. The questionnaire was filled in by two independent consecutive series of pregnant women at the 38th gestation week visit in the two birth locations of the Local Health Authority of Treviso (Italy), during the years 2010 and 2011 (n=220 and n=239). Reliability analysis was performed using internal consistency, item-total score correlations, and inter-item correlations. The "discriminatory power" of the test was also evaluated. Results. Overall, about one third of women recalled alcohol consumption at least once during the current pregnancy. The questionnaire had an internal consistency of 0.565 for the group of the year 2010, of 0.516 for the year 2011, and of 0.542 for the overall group. The highest item total correlations' coefficient was 0.687 and the highest inter-item correlations' coefficient was 0.675. As for the discriminatory power of the questionnaire, the highest Ferguson's delta coefficient was 0.623. These findings suggest that the Italian self-report version of the AUDIT-C possesses unsatisfactory reliability to estimate alcohol consumption during pregnancy when used as self-report questionnaire in an obstetric setting.

  6. Estimate of the influence of muzzle smoke on function range of infrared system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yan-ling; Wang, Jun; Wu, Jiang-hui; Wu, Jun; Gao, Meng; Gao, Fei; Zhao, Yu-jie; Zhang, Lei

    2013-09-01

    Muzzle smoke produced by weapons shooting has important influence on infrared (IR) system while detecting targets. Based on the theoretical model of detecting spot targets and surface targets of IR system while there is muzzle smoke, the function range for detecting spot targets and surface targets are deduced separately according to the definition of noise equivalent temperature difference(NETD) and minimum resolution temperature difference(MRTD). Also parameters of muzzle smoke affecting function range of IR system are analyzed. Base on measured data of muzzle smoke for single shot, the function range of an IR system for detecting typical targets are calculated separately while there is muzzle smoke and there is no muzzle smoke at 8-12 micron waveband. For our IR system function range has reduced by over 10% for detecting tank if muzzle smoke exists. The results will provide evidence for evaluating the influence of muzzle smoke on IR system and will help researchers to improve ammo craftwork.

  7. Estimating Canopy Structure in an Amazon Forest from Laser Range Finder and IKONOS Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory P. Asner; Michael Palace; Michael Keller; Rodrigo Pereira Jr.; Jose N. M. Silva; Johan C. Zweede

    2002-01-01

    Canopy structural data can be used for biomass estimation and studies of carbon cycling, disturbance, energy balance, and hydrological processes in tropical forest ecosystems. Scarce information on canopy dimensions reflects the difficulties associated with measuring crown height, width, depth, and area in tall, humid tropical forests. New field and spaceborne...

  8. Classification of Amazonian rosewood essential oil by Raman spectroscopy and PLS-DA with reliability estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Mariana R; Fidelis, Carlos H V; Barata, Lauro E S; Poppi, Ronei J

    2013-12-15

    The Amazon tree Aniba rosaeodora Ducke (rosewood) provides an essential oil valuable for the perfume industry, but after decades of predatory extraction it is at risk of extinction. The extraction of the essential oil from wood implies the cutting of the tree, and then the study of oil extracted from the leaves is important as a sustainable alternative. The goal of this study was to test the applicability of Raman spectroscopy and Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) as means to classify the essential oil extracted from different parties (wood, leaves and branches) of the Brazilian tree A. rosaeodora. For the development of classification models, the Raman spectra were split into two sets: training and test. The value of the limit that separates the classes was calculated based on the distribution of samples of training. This value was calculated in a manner that the classes are divided with a lower probability of incorrect classification for future estimates. The best model presented sensitivity and specificity of 100%, predictive accuracy and efficiency of 100%. These results give an overall vision of the behavior of the model, but do not give information about individual samples; in this case, the confidence interval for each sample of classification was also calculated using the resampling bootstrap technique. The methodology developed have the potential to be an alternative for standard procedures used for oil analysis and it can be employed as screening method, since it is fast, non-destructive and robust. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A Multi-Sensor Fusion MAV State Estimation from Long-Range Stereo, IMU, GPS and Barometric Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yu; Nuske, Stephen; Scherer, Sebastian

    2016-12-22

    State estimation is the most critical capability for MAV (Micro-Aerial Vehicle) localization, autonomous obstacle avoidance, robust flight control and 3D environmental mapping. There are three main challenges for MAV state estimation: (1) it can deal with aggressive 6 DOF (Degree Of Freedom) motion; (2) it should be robust to intermittent GPS (Global Positioning System) (even GPS-denied) situations; (3) it should work well both for low- and high-altitude flight. In this paper, we present a state estimation technique by fusing long-range stereo visual odometry, GPS, barometric and IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit) measurements. The new estimation system has two main parts, a stochastic cloning EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) estimator that loosely fuses both absolute state measurements (GPS, barometer) and the relative state measurements (IMU, visual odometry), and is derived and discussed in detail. A long-range stereo visual odometry is proposed for high-altitude MAV odometry calculation by using both multi-view stereo triangulation and a multi-view stereo inverse depth filter. The odometry takes the EKF information (IMU integral) for robust camera pose tracking and image feature matching, and the stereo odometry output serves as the relative measurements for the update of the state estimation. Experimental results on a benchmark dataset and our real flight dataset show the effectiveness of the proposed state estimation system, especially for the aggressive, intermittent GPS and high-altitude MAV flight.

  10. On-Board State-of-Health Estimation at a Wide Ambient Temperature Range in Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiansi Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A state-of-health (SOH estimation method for electric vehicles (EVs is presented with three main advantages: (1 it provides joint estimation of cell’s aging states in terms of power and energy (i.e., SOHP and SOHE—because the determination of SOHP and SOHE can be reduced to the estimation of the ohmic resistance increase and capacity loss, respectively, the ohmic resistance at nominal temperature will be taken as a health indicator, and the capacity loss is estimated based on a mechanistic model that is developed to describe the correlation between resistance increase and capacity loss; (2 it has wide applicability to various ambient temperatures—to eliminate the effects of temperature on the resistance, another mechanistic model about the resistance against temperature is presented, which can normalize the resistance at various temperatures to its standard value at the nominal temperature; and (3 it needs low computational efforts for on-board application—based on a linear equation of cell’s dynamic behaviors, the recursive least-squares (RLS algorithm is used for the resistance estimation. Based on the designed performance and validation experiments, respectively, the coefficients of the models are determined and the accuracy of the proposed method is verified. The results at different aging states and temperatures show good accuracy and reliability.

  11. Methods of Estimation the Reliability and Increasing the Informativeness of the Laboratory Results (Analysis of the Laboratory Case of Measurement the Indicators of Thyroid Function)

    OpenAIRE

    N A Kovyazina; N A Alhutova; N N Zybina; N M Kalinina

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the study was to demonstrate the multilevel laboratory quality management system and point at the methods of estimating the reliability and increasing the amount of information content of the laboratory results (on the example of the laboratory case). Results. The article examines the stages of laboratory quality management which has helped to estimate the reliability of the results of determining Free T3, Free T4 and TSH. The measurement results are presented by the expanded unce...

  12. Reliable estimation of antimicrobial use and its evolution between 2010 and 2013 in French swine farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hémonic, Anne; Chauvin, Claire; Delzescaux, Didier; Verliat, Fabien; Corrégé, Isabelle

    2018-01-01

    There has been a strong implication of both the French swine industry and the national authorities on reducing the use of antimicrobials in swine production since 2010. The annual monitoring of antimicrobial sales by the French Veterinary Medicines Agency (Anses-ANMV) provides estimates but not detailed figures on actual on-farm usage of antimicrobials in swine production. In order to provide detailed information on the 2010 and 2013 antimicrobial use in the French swine industry, the methodology of cross-sectional retrospective study on a representative sample of at least 150 farms has been elected. The analysis of the collected data shows a strong and significant decrease in antimicrobial exposure of pigs between 2010 and 2013. Over three years, the average number of days of treatment significantly decreased by 29% in suckling piglets and by 19% in weaned piglets. In fattening pigs, the drop (- 29%) was not statistically significant. Only usage in sows did increase over that period (+ 17%, non-significant), which might be associated with the transition to group-housing of pregnant sows that took place at the time. Also, over that period, the use of third- and fourth generation cephalosporins in suckling piglets decreased by 89%, and by 82% in sows, which confirms that the voluntary moratorium on these classes of antimicrobials decided at the end of 2010 has been effectively implemented. The methodology of random sampling of farms appears as a precise and robust tool to monitor antimicrobial use within a production animal species, able to fulfil industry and national authorities' objectives and requirements to assess the outcome of concerted efforts on antimicrobial use reduction. It demonstrates that the use of antimicrobials decreased in the French swine industry between 2010 and 2013, including the classes considered as critical for human medicine.

  13. Estimating the Transfer Range of Plasmids Encoding Antimicrobial Resistance in a Wastewater Treatment Plant Microbial Community

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Liguan; Dechesne, Arnaud; He, Zhiming

    2018-01-01

    sludge microbial community was challenged in standardized filter matings with one of three multidrug resistance plasmids (pKJK5, pB10, and RP4) harbored by Escherichia coli or Pseudomonas putida. Different donor–plasmid combinations had distinct transfer frequencies, ranging from 3 to 50 conjugation...... events per 100000 cells of the WWTP microbial community. In addition, transfer was observed to a broad phylogenetic range of 13 bacterial phyla with several taxa containing potentially pathogenic species. Preferential transfer to taxa belonging to the predicted evolutionary host range of the plasmids...... ARG transmission. However, the contribution of microbial communities in WWTPs to ARG dissemination remains poorly understood. Here, we examined for the first time plasmid permissiveness of an activated sludge microbial community by utilizing an established fluorescent bioreporter system. The activated...

  14. A Tractable Estimate for the Dissipation Range Onset Wavenumber Throughout the Heliosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelbrecht, N. Eugene; Strauss, R. Du Toit

    2018-04-01

    The modulation of low-energy electrons in the heliosphere is extremely sensitive to the behavior of the dissipation range slab turbulence. The present study derives approximate expressions for the wavenumber at which the dissipation range on the slab turbulence power spectrum commences, by assuming that this onset occurs when dispersive waves propagating parallel to the background magnetic field gyroresonate with thermal plasma particles. This assumption yields results in reasonable agreement with existing spacecraft observations. These expressions are functions of the solar wind proton and electron temperatures, which are here modeled throughout the region where the solar wind is supersonic using a two-component turbulence transport model. The results so acquired are compared with extrapolations of existing models for the dissipation range onset wavenumber, and conclusions are drawn therefrom.

  15. Comprehensive analysis of proton range uncertainties related to patient stopping-power-ratio estimation using the stoichiometric calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Zhu, X. Ronald; Park, Peter C.; Titt, Uwe; Mohan, Radhe; Virshup, Gary; Clayton, James E.; Dong, Lei

    2012-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze factors affecting proton stopping-power-ratio (SPR) estimations and range uncertainties in proton therapy planning using the standard stoichiometric calibration. The SPR uncertainties were grouped into five categories according to their origins and then estimated based on previously published reports or measurements. For the first time, the impact of tissue composition variations on SPR estimation was assessed and the uncertainty estimates of each category were determined for low-density (lung), soft, and high-density (bone) tissues. A composite, 95th percentile water-equivalent-thickness uncertainty was calculated from multiple beam directions in 15 patients with various types of cancer undergoing proton therapy. The SPR uncertainties (1σ) were quite different (ranging from 1.6% to 5.0%) in different tissue groups, although the final combined uncertainty (95th percentile) for different treatment sites was fairly consistent at 3.0-3.4%, primarily because soft tissue is the dominant tissue type in the human body. The dominant contributing factor for uncertainties in soft tissues was the degeneracy of Hounsfield numbers in the presence of tissue composition variations. To reduce the overall uncertainties in SPR estimation, the use of dual-energy computed tomography is suggested. The values recommended in this study based on typical treatment sites and a small group of patients roughly agree with the commonly referenced value (3.5%) used for margin design. By using tissue-specific range uncertainties, one could estimate the beam-specific range margin by accounting for different types and amounts of tissues along a beam, which may allow for customization of range uncertainty for each beam direction.

  16. Permissible Home Range Estimation (PHRE in Restricted Habitats: A New Algorithm and an Evaluation for Sea Otters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L Max Tarjan

    Full Text Available Parametric and nonparametric kernel methods dominate studies of animal home ranges and space use. Most existing methods are unable to incorporate information about the underlying physical environment, leading to poor performance in excluding areas that are not used. Using radio-telemetry data from sea otters, we developed and evaluated a new algorithm for estimating home ranges (hereafter Permissible Home Range Estimation, or "PHRE" that reflects habitat suitability. We began by transforming sighting locations into relevant landscape features (for sea otters, coastal position and distance from shore. Then, we generated a bivariate kernel probability density function in landscape space and back-transformed this to geographic space in order to define a permissible home range. Compared to two commonly used home range estimation methods, kernel densities and local convex hulls, PHRE better excluded unused areas and required a smaller sample size. Our PHRE method is applicable to species whose ranges are restricted by complex physical boundaries or environmental gradients and will improve understanding of habitat-use requirements and, ultimately, aid in conservation efforts.

  17. Evaluation of Four Encryption Algorithms for Viability, Reliability and Performance Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. Awotunde

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Data and information in storage, in transit or during processing are found in various computers and computing devices with wide range of hardware specifications. Cryptography is the knowledge of using codes to encrypt and decrypt data. It enables one to store sensitive information or transmit it across computer in a more secured ways so that it cannot be read by anyone except the intended receiver. Cryptography also allows secure storage of sensitive data on any computer. Cryptography as an approach to computer security comes at a cost in terms of resource utilization such as time, memory and CPU usability time which in some cases may not be in abundance to achieve the set out objective of protecting data. This work looked into the memory construction rate, different key size, CPU utilization time period and encryption speed of the four algorithms to determine the amount of computer resource that is expended and how long it takes each algorithm to complete its task. Results shows that key length of the cryptographic algorithm is proportional to the resource utilization in most cases as found out in the key length of Blowfish, AES, 3DES and DES algorithms respectively. Further research can be carried out in order to determine the power utilization of each of these algorithms.

  18. Estimating the impact of structural directionality: How reliable are undirected connectomes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penelope Kale

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Directionality is a fundamental feature of network connections. Most structural brain networks are intrinsically directed because of the nature of chemical synapses, which comprise most neuronal connections. Because of the limitations of noninvasive imaging techniques, the directionality of connections between structurally connected regions of the human brain cannot be confirmed. Hence, connections are represented as undirected, and it is still unknown how this lack of directionality affects brain network topology. Using six directed brain networks from different species and parcellations (cat, mouse, C. elegans, and three macaque networks, we estimate the inaccuracies in network measures (degree, betweenness, clustering coefficient, path length, global efficiency, participation index, and small-worldness associated with the removal of the directionality of connections. We employ three different methods to render directed brain networks undirected: (a remove unidirectional connections, (b add reciprocal connections, and (c combine equal numbers of removed and added unidirectional connections. We quantify the extent of inaccuracy in network measures introduced through neglecting connection directionality for individual nodes and across the network. We find that the coarse division between core and peripheral nodes remains accurate for undirected networks. However, hub nodes differ considerably when directionality is neglected. Comparing the different methods to generate undirected networks from directed ones, we generally find that the addition of reciprocal connections (false positives causes larger errors in graph-theoretic measures than the removal of the same number of directed connections (false negatives. These findings suggest that directionality plays an essential role in shaping brain networks and highlight some limitations of undirected connectomes. Most brain networks are inherently directed because of the nature of chemical synapses

  19. Harnessing big data for estimating the energy consumption and driving range of electric vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fetene, Gebeyehu Manie; Kaplan, Sigal; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    type; (iv) weather conditions. The results of the analysis measure the mean ECR of BEVs at 0.183 kW h/km, underline a 34% increase in ECR and a 25% decrease in driving range in the winter with respect to the summer, and suggest the electricity tariff for BEVs to be cost efficient with respect...

  20. Accessible light detection and ranging: estimating large tree density for habitat identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather A. Kramer; Brandon M. Collins; Claire V. Gallagher; John Keane; Scott L. Stephens; Maggi Kelly

    2016-01-01

    Large trees are important to a wide variety of wildlife, including many species of conservation concern, such as the California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has been successfully utilized to identify the density of large-diameter trees, either by segmenting the LiDAR point cloud into...

  1. Estimation of gingival crevicular blood glucose level for the screening of diabetes mellitus: A simple yet reliable method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parihar, Sarita; Tripathi, Richik; Parihar, Ajit Vikram; Samadi, Fahad M; Chandra, Akhilesh; Bhavsar, Neeta

    2016-01-01

    This study was designed to assess the reliability of blood glucose level estimation in gingival crevicular blood(GCB) for screening diabetes mellitus. 70 patients were included in study. A randomized, double-blind clinical trial was performed. Among these, 39 patients were diabetic (including 4 patients who were diagnosed during the study) and rest 31 patients were non-diabetic. GCB obtained during routine periodontal examination was analyzed by glucometer to know blood glucose level. The same patient underwent for finger stick blood (FSB) glucose level estimation with glucometer and venous blood (VB) glucose level with standardized laboratory method as per American Diabetes Association Guidelines. 1 All the three blood glucose levels were compared. Periodontal parameters were also recorded including gingival index (GI) and probing pocket depth (PPD). A strong positive correlation ( r ) was observed between glucose levels of GCB with FSB and VB with the values of 0.986 and 0.972 in diabetic group and 0.820 and 0.721 in non-diabetic group. As well, the mean values of GI and PPD were more in diabetic group than non-diabetic group with the statistically significant difference ( p  blood glucose level as the values were closest to glucose levels estimated by VB. The technique is safe, easy to perform and non-invasive to the patient and can increase the frequency of diagnosing diabetes during routine periodontal therapy.

  2. Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

    2018-02-15

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

  3. A Comprehensive Evaluation of Joint Range and Angle Estimation in Indoor Ultrawideband Location Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gentile Camillo

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Fine time resolution enables ultrawideband (UWB ranging systems to extract the first multipath arrival corresponding to the range between a transmitter and receiver, even when attenuated in strength compared to later arrivals. Bearing systems alone lack any notion of time and in general select the strongest arrival which is rarely the first one in nonline-of-sight conditions. Complementing UWB ranging systems with bearing capabilities allows indexing the arrivals as a function of both time and angle in order to isolate the first, providing precision range and angle. However, that precision degrades with the increasing presence of walls and other objects which distort the properties of the first arrival. In order to gauge the physical limits of the joint UWB system, we design and assemble a spatial-temporal channel sounder using a vector network analyzer coupled to a virtual antenna array, and conduct 200 experiments to measure the time- and angle-of-flight. The experiments are carried out in both line-of-sight and nonline-of-sight conditions up to an unprecedented 45 meters throughout four separate buildings with dominant wall material varying from sheet rock to steel. In addition, we report performance for varying bandwidth and center frequency of the system. We find that operating at a bandwidth of 4 GHz suffices in resolving multipath in most buildings and in excess shows virtually no improvement. While the range error decreases at lower center frequencies, the higher frequencies offer better angular resolution and so smaller angle error.

  4. FrFT-CSWSF: Estimating cross-range velocities of ground moving targets using multistatic synthetic aperture radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Chenlei

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Estimating cross-range velocity is a challenging task for space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR, which is important for ground moving target indication (GMTI. Because the velocity of a target is very small compared with that of the satellite, it is difficult to correctly estimate it using a conventional monostatic platform algorithm. To overcome this problem, a novel method employing multistatic SAR is presented in this letter. The proposed hybrid method, which is based on an extended space-time model (ESTIM of the azimuth signal, has two steps: first, a set of finite impulse response (FIR filter banks based on a fractional Fourier transform (FrFT is used to separate multiple targets within a range gate; second, a cross-correlation spectrum weighted subspace fitting (CSWSF algorithm is applied to each of the separated signals in order to estimate their respective parameters. As verified through computer simulation with the constellations of Cartwheel, Pendulum and Helix, this proposed time-frequency-subspace method effectively improves the estimation precision of the cross-range velocities of multiple targets.

  5. A wide range survey meter for estimating γ- and β-dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.R.

    1980-09-01

    A survey meter has been developed to measure β-dose rates in the range 0.1 - 100 rad/h (1 mGy/h - 1 Gy/h) and γ-dose rates in the range 1 mrad/h - 100 rad/h (10 μGy/h-1 Gy/h). It also provides an audible warning of high γ-dose rates and an audible and visible warning when a predetermined γ-dose is exceeded. The report describes the design of the survey meter and presents data measured on the performance of an engineering prototype. Factors which affect performance and have been investigated are temperature, battery voltage (and type of battery), GM counter counting loss, direction of incident radiation, and energy of γ-rays. Finally, the application and calibration of the survey meter are discussed. (auth)

  6. Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanjilal, Oindrila, E-mail: oindrila@civil.iisc.ernet.in; Manohar, C.S., E-mail: manohar@civil.iisc.ernet.in

    2017-07-15

    The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • The distance minimizing control forces minimize a bound on the sampling variance. • Establishing Girsanov controls via solution of a two-point boundary value problem. • Girsanov controls via Volterra's series representation for the transfer functions.

  7. Improving Range Estimation of a 3-Dimensional Flash Ladar via Blind Deconvolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    limitation of the simplistic model and adaptation of the higher fidelity model is the catalyst of the material in Chapters V and VI. In order to...characterization has been done previously in fields such as heterodyne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), RADAR, and positron emisson tomography (PET) [20...Figure 6.13(b). These values for pt are consistent with the values from the previous section. Considering all the above optimal pulse-width studies

  8. TLD personnel monitoring dose estimation- extending the upper limit of the dose range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popli, K.L.; Sathian, Deepa; Divakaran, T.; Massand, O.P.

    2001-01-01

    TLD personnel monitoring was introduced in the year 1975 in India and at present nearly 41,000 radiation workers are being monitored by 13 monitoring laboratories all over India. The BARC- TLD being used for personnel monitoring is based on CaSO 4 :Dy embedded in PTFE and semi-automatic TL reader using hot N 2 Gas for heating the dosimeters. This reader has the range to measure γ dose from ten μSv to 3 μSv and x-ray dose form 1 μ Sv to 0.3 Sv due to the higher sensitivity of CaSO 4 : Dy to lower energy photons (20keV-50 keV) generated by diagnostic x-ray units. The x-ray radiation workers are at present nearly 35% of the total radiation workers monitored and this number is expected to grow as more and more number of x-ray workers are covered under this service. The upper limit of the x-ray dose range of the instrument is 0.3 Sv, whereas in the past one year it has been observed that at least 25% of the total overexposures reported in case of x-ray workers have recorded the dose more than 0.3 Sv. This paper presents the technique developed to extend the upper limit of the range from 0.3 Sv to 1 Sv for x-rays and 10 Sv for γ rays

  9. Validating the absolute reliability of a fat free mass estimate equation in hemodialysis patients using near-infrared spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kono, Kenichi; Nishida, Yusuke; Moriyama, Yoshihumi; Taoka, Masahiro; Sato, Takashi

    2015-06-01

    The assessment of nutritional states using fat free mass (FFM) measured with near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is clinically useful. This measurement should incorporate the patient's post-dialysis weight ("dry weight"), in order to exclude the effects of any change in water mass. We therefore used NIRS to investigate the regression, independent variables, and absolute reliability of FFM in dry weight. The study included 47 outpatients from the hemodialysis unit. Body weight was measured before dialysis, and FFM was measured using NIRS before and after dialysis treatment. Multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the FFM in dry weight as the dependent variable. The measured FFM before dialysis treatment (Mw-FFM), and the difference between measured and dry weight (Mw-Dw) were independent variables. We performed Bland-Altman analysis to detect errors between the statistically estimated FFM and the measured FFM after dialysis treatment. The multiple regression equation to estimate the FFM in dry weight was: Dw-FFM = 0.038 + (0.984 × Mw-FFM) + (-0.571 × [Mw-Dw]); R(2)  = 0.99). There was no systematic bias between the estimated and the measured values of FFM in dry weight. Using NIRS, FFM in dry weight can be calculated by an equation including FFM in measured weight and the difference between the measured weight and the dry weight. © 2015 The Authors. Therapeutic Apheresis and Dialysis © 2015 International Society for Apheresis.

  10. Wide-Range Motion Estimation Architecture with Dual Search Windows for High Resolution Video Coding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dung, Lan-Rong; Lin, Meng-Chun

    This paper presents a memory-efficient motion estimation (ME) technique for high-resolution video compression. The main objective is to reduce the external memory access, especially for limited local memory resource. The reduction of memory access can successfully save the notorious power consumption. The key to reduce the memory accesses is based on center-biased algorithm in that the center-biased algorithm performs the motion vector (MV) searching with the minimum search data. While considering the data reusability, the proposed dual-search-windowing (DSW) approaches use the secondary windowing as an option per searching necessity. By doing so, the loading of search windows can be alleviated and hence reduce the required external memory bandwidth. The proposed techniques can save up to 81% of external memory bandwidth and require only 135 MBytes/sec, while the quality degradation is less than 0.2dB for 720p HDTV clips coded at 8Mbits/sec.

  11. Confidence range estimate of extended source imagery acquisition algorithms via computer simulations. [in optical communication systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, CHIEN-C.; Hui, Elliot; Okamoto, Garret

    1992-01-01

    Spatial acquisition using the sun-lit Earth as a beacon source provides several advantages over active beacon-based systems for deep-space optical communication systems. However, since the angular extend of the Earth image is large compared to the laser beam divergence, the acquisition subsystem must be capable of resolving the image to derive the proper pointing orientation. The algorithms used must be capable of deducing the receiver location given the blurring introduced by the imaging optics and the large Earth albedo fluctuation. Furthermore, because of the complexity of modelling the Earth and the tracking algorithms, an accurate estimate of the algorithm accuracy can only be made via simulation using realistic Earth images. An image simulator was constructed for this purpose, and the results of the simulation runs are reported.

  12. Harnessing Big-Data for Estimating the Energy Consumption and Driving Range of Electric Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fetene, Gebeyehu Manie; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Kaplan, Sigal

    -effects econometrics model used in this paper predicts that the energy saving speed of driving is between 45 and 56 km/h. In addition to the contribution to the literature about energy efficiency of electric vehicles, the findings from this study enlightens consumers to choose appropriate cars that suit their travel......This study analyses the driving range and investigates the factors affecting the energy consumption rate of fully-battery electric vehicles under real-world driving patterns accounting for weather condition, drivers’ characteristics, and road characteristics. Four data sources are used: (i) up...

  13. Reliability estimation of a N- M-cold-standby redundancy system in a multicomponent stress-strength model with generalized half-logistic distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yiming; Shi, Yimin; Bai, Xuchao; Zhan, Pei

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the estimation for the reliability of a multicomponent system, named N- M-cold-standby redundancy system, based on progressive Type-II censoring sample. In the system, there are N subsystems consisting of M statistically independent distributed strength components, and only one of these subsystems works under the impact of stresses at a time and the others remain as standbys. Whenever the working subsystem fails, one from the standbys takes its place. The system fails when the entire subsystems fail. It is supposed that the underlying distributions of random strength and stress both belong to the generalized half-logistic distribution with different shape parameter. The reliability of the system is estimated by using both classical and Bayesian statistical inference. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the reliability of the system are derived. Under squared error loss function, the exact expression of the Bayes estimator for the reliability of the system is developed by using the Gauss hypergeometric function. The asymptotic confidence interval and corresponding coverage probabilities are derived based on both the Fisher and the observed information matrices. The approximate highest probability density credible interval is constructed by using Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed reliability estimators. A real data set is also analyzed for an illustration of the findings.

  14. Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Matthew J.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Ziolkowski, David J.

    2016-01-01

    There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

  15. Frequency Diverse Array Radar Cramér-Rao Lower Bounds for Estimating Direction, Range, and Velocity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongbing Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Different from phased-array radar, frequency diverse array (FDA radar offers range-dependent beampattern and thus provides new application potentials. But there is a fundamental question: what estimation performance can achieve for an FDA radar? In this paper, we derive FDA radar Cramér-Rao lower bounds (CRLBs for estimating direction, range (time delay, and velocity (Doppler shift. Two different data models including pre- and postmatched filtering are investigated separately. As the FDA radar has range-angle coupling, we use a simple transmit subaperturing strategy which divides the whole array into two subarrays, each uses a distinct frequency increment. Assuming temporally white Gaussian noise and linear frequency modulated transmit signal, extensive simulation examples are performed. When compared to conventional phased-array radar, FDA can yield better CRLBs for estimating the direction, range, and velocity. Moreover, the impacts of the element number and frequency increment are also analyzed. Simulation results show that the CRLBs decrease with the increase of the elements number and frequency increment.

  16. The influence of study species selection on estimates of pesticide exposure in free-ranging birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Shannon L.; Vyas, Nimish B.; Christman, Mary C.

    2014-01-01

    Field studies of pesticide effects on birds often utilize indicator species with the purpose 16 of extrapolating to other avian taxa. Little guidance exists for choosing indicator species to 17 monitor the presence and/or effects of contaminants that are labile in the environment or body, 18 but are acutely toxic, such as anticholinesterase (anti-ChE) insecticides. Use of an indicator 19 species that does not represent maximum exposure and/or effects could lead to inaccurate risk 20 estimates. Our objective was to test the relevance of a priori selection of indicator species for a 21 study on pesticide exposure to birds inhabiting fruit orchards. We used total plasma 22 cholinesterase (ChE) activity and ChE reactivation to describe the variability in anti-ChE exposure among avian species in two conventionally managed fruit orchards. Of seven 24 species included in statistical analyses, the less common species, chipping sparrow (Spizella 25 passerina), showed the greatest percentage of exposed individuals and the greatest ChE 26 depression, whereas the two most common species, American robins (Turdus migratorius) and 27 grey catbirds (Dumatella carolinensis), did not show significant exposure. Due to their lower 28 abundance, chipping sparrows would have been an unlikely choice for study. Our results show 29 that selection of indicator species using traditionally accepted criteria such as abundance and 30 ease of collection may not identify species that are at greatest risk. Our efforts also demonstrate 31 the usefulness of conducting multiple-species pilot studies prior to initiating detailed studies on 32 pesticide effects. A study such as ours can help focus research and resources on study species 33 that are most appropriate.

  17. Exploratory Long-Range Models to Estimate Summer Climate Variability over Southern Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.; Mulenga, Henry M.; Mason, Simon J.

    1999-07-01

    Teleconnection predictors are explored using multivariate regression models in an effort to estimate southern African summer rainfall and climate impacts one season in advance. The preliminary statistical formulations include many variables influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) such as tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Atmospheric circulation responses to ENSO include the alternation of tropical zonal winds over Africa and changes in convective activity within oceanic monsoon troughs. Numerous hemispheric-scale datasets are employed to extract predictors and include global indexes (Southern Oscillation index and quasi-biennial oscillation), SST principal component scores for the global oceans, indexes of tropical convection (outgoing longwave radiation), air pressure, and surface and upper winds over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Climatic targets include subseasonal, area-averaged rainfall over South Africa and the Zambezi river basin, and South Africa's annual maize yield. Predictors and targets overlap in the years 1971-93, the defined training period. Each target time series is fitted by an optimum group of predictors from the preceding spring, in a linear multivariate formulation. To limit artificial skill, predictors are restricted to three, providing 17 degrees of freedom. Models with colinear predictors are screened out, and persistence of the target time series is considered. The late summer rainfall models achieve a mean r2 fit of 72%, contributed largely through ENSO modulation. Early summer rainfall cross validation correlations are lower (61%). A conceptual understanding of the climate dynamics and ocean-atmosphere coupling processes inherent in the exploratory models is outlined.Seasonal outlooks based on the exploratory models could help mitigate the impacts of southern Africa's fluctuating climate. It is believed that an advance warning of drought risk and seasonal rainfall prospects will

  18. Estimating the generation interval of influenza A (H1N1) in a range of social settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    te Beest, Dennis E; Wallinga, Jacco; Donker, Tjibbe; van Boven, Michiel

    2013-03-01

    A proper understanding of the infection dynamics of influenza A viruses hinges on the availability of reliable estimates of key epidemiologic parameters such as the reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate, and generation interval. Often the generation interval is assumed to be similar in different settings although there is little evidence justifying this. Here we estimate the generation interval for stratifications based on age, cluster size, and social setting (camp, school, workplace, household) using data from 16 clusters of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) in the Netherlands. Our analyses are based on a Bayesian inferential framework, enabling flexible handling of both missing infection links and missing times of symptoms onset. The analysis indicates that a stratification that allows the generation interval to differ by social setting fits the data best. Specifically, the estimated generation interval was shorter in households (2.1 days [95% credible interval = 1.6-2.9]) and camps (2.3 days [1.4-3.4]) than in workplaces (2.7 days [1.9-3.7]) and schools (3.4 days [2.5-4.5]). Our findings could be the result of differences in the number of contacts between settings, differences in prophylactic use of antivirals between settings, and differences in underreporting.

  19. Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

    2015-01-01

    We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

  20. Assessing the impact of uncertainty on flood risk estimates with reliability analysis using 1-D and 2-D hydraulic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Altarejos-García

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of reliability techniques such as Rosenblueth's Point-Estimate Method (PEM as a practical alternative to more precise Monte Carlo approaches to get estimates of the mean and variance of uncertain flood parameters water depth and velocity. These parameters define the flood severity, which is a concept used for decision-making in the context of flood risk assessment. The method proposed is particularly useful when the degree of complexity of the hydraulic models makes Monte Carlo inapplicable in terms of computing time, but when a measure of the variability of these parameters is still needed. The capacity of PEM, which is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials, to evaluate the first two moments of performance functions such as the water depth and velocity is demonstrated in the case of a single river reach using a 1-D HEC-RAS model. It is shown that in some cases, using a simple variable transformation, statistical distributions of both water depth and velocity approximate the lognormal. As this distribution is fully defined by its mean and variance, PEM can be used to define the full probability distribution function of these flood parameters and so allowing for probability estimations of flood severity. Then, an application of the method to the same river reach using a 2-D Shallow Water Equations (SWE model is performed. Flood maps of mean and standard deviation of water depth and velocity are obtained, and uncertainty in the extension of flooded areas with different severity levels is assessed. It is recognized, though, that whenever application of Monte Carlo method is practically feasible, it is a preferred approach.

  1. The transverse diameter of the chest on routine radiographs reliably estimates gestational age and weight in premature infants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Kelly R. [University of Minnesota, Department of Radiology, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Zhang, Lei [University of Minnesota, Biostatistical Design and Analysis Center, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Seidel, Frank G. [Lucile Packard Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2015-08-15

    Prior to digital radiography it was possible for a radiologist to easily estimate the size of a patient on an analog film. Because variable magnification may be applied at the time of processing an image, it is now more difficult to visually estimate an infant's size on the monitor. Since gestational age and weight significantly impact the differential diagnosis of neonatal diseases and determine the expected size of kidneys or appearance of the brain by MRI or US, this information is useful to a pediatric radiologist. Although this information may be present in the electronic medical record, it is frequently not readily available to the pediatric radiologist at the time of image interpretation. To determine if there was a correlation between gestational age and weight of a premature infant with their transverse chest diameter (rib to rib) on admission chest radiographs. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, which waived informed consent. The maximum transverse chest diameter outer rib to outer rib was measured on admission portable chest radiographs of 464 patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during the 2010 calendar year. Regression analysis was used to investigate the association between chest diameter and gestational age/birth weight. Quadratic term of chest diameter was used in the regression model. Chest diameter was statistically significantly associated with both gestational age (P < 0.0001) and birth weight (P < 0.0001). An infant's gestational age and birth weight can be reliably estimated by comparing a simple measurement of the transverse chest diameter on digital chest radiograph with the tables and graphs in our study. (orig.)

  2. Linear Interaction Energy Based Prediction of Cytochrome P450 1A2 Binding Affinities with Reliability Estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Capoferri

    Full Text Available Prediction of human Cytochrome P450 (CYP binding affinities of small ligands, i.e., substrates and inhibitors, represents an important task for predicting drug-drug interactions. A quantitative assessment of the ligand binding affinity towards different CYPs can provide an estimate of inhibitory activity or an indication of isoforms prone to interact with the substrate of inhibitors. However, the accuracy of global quantitative models for CYP substrate binding or inhibition based on traditional molecular descriptors can be limited, because of the lack of information on the structure and flexibility of the catalytic site of CYPs. Here we describe the application of a method that combines protein-ligand docking, Molecular Dynamics (MD simulations and Linear Interaction Energy (LIE theory, to allow for quantitative CYP affinity prediction. Using this combined approach, a LIE model for human CYP 1A2 was developed and evaluated, based on a structurally diverse dataset for which the estimated experimental uncertainty was 3.3 kJ mol-1. For the computed CYP 1A2 binding affinities, the model showed a root mean square error (RMSE of 4.1 kJ mol-1 and a standard error in prediction (SDEP in cross-validation of 4.3 kJ mol-1. A novel approach that includes information on both structural ligand description and protein-ligand interaction was developed for estimating the reliability of predictions, and was able to identify compounds from an external test set with a SDEP for the predicted affinities of 4.6 kJ mol-1 (corresponding to 0.8 pKi units.

  3. The reliability of grazing rate estimates from dilution experiments: Have we over-estimated rates of organic carbon consumption by microzooplankton?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Dolan,

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available According to a recent global analysis, microzooplankton grazing is surprisingly invariant, ranging only between 59 and 74% of phytoplankton primary production across systems differing in seasonality, trophic status, latitude, or salinity. Thus an important biological process in the world ocean, the daily consumption of recently fixed carbon, appears nearly constant. We believe this conclusion is an artefact because dilution experiments are 1 prone to providing over-estimates of grazing rates and 2 unlikely to furnish evidence of low grazing rates. In our view the overall average rate of microzooplankton grazing probably does not exceed 50% of primary production and may be even lower in oligotrophic systems.

  4. Assessment of the reliability of human corneal endothelial cell-density estimates using a noncontact specular microscope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doughty, M J; Müller, A; Zaman, M L

    2000-03-01

    We sought to determine the variance in endothelial cell density (ECD) estimates for human corneal endothelia. Noncontact specular micrographs were obtained from white subjects without any history of contact lens wear, or major eye disease or surgery; subjects were within four age groups (children, young adults, older adults, senior citizens). The endothelial image was scanned, and the areas from > or =75 cells measured from an overlay by planimetry. The cell-area values were used to calculate the ECD repeatedly so that the intra- and intersubject variation in an average ECD estimate could be made by using different numbers of cells (5, 10, 15, etc.). An average ECD of 3,519 cells/mm2 (range, 2,598-5,312 cells/mm2) was obtained of counts of 75 cells/ endothelium from individuals aged 6-83 years. Average ECD estimates in each age group were 4,124, 3,457, 3,360, and 3,113 cells/mm2, respectively. Analysis of intersubject variance revealed that ECD estimates would be expected to be no better than +/-10% if only 25 cells were measured per endothelium, but approach +/-2% if 75 cells are measured. In assessing the corneal endothelium by noncontact specular microscopy, cell count should be given, and this should be > or =75/ endothelium for an expected variance to be at a level close to that recommended for monitoring age-, stress-, or surgery-related changes.

  5. Simulation of range imaging-based estimation of respiratory lung motion. Influence of noise, signal dimensionality and sampling patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilms, M; Werner, R; Blendowski, M; Ortmüller, J; Handels, H

    2014-01-01

    A major problem associated with the irradiation of thoracic and abdominal tumors is respiratory motion. In clinical practice, motion compensation approaches are frequently steered by low-dimensional breathing signals (e.g., spirometry) and patient-specific correspondence models, which are used to estimate the sought internal motion given a signal measurement. Recently, the use of multidimensional signals derived from range images of the moving skin surface has been proposed to better account for complex motion patterns. In this work, a simulation study is carried out to investigate the motion estimation accuracy of such multidimensional signals and the influence of noise, the signal dimensionality, and different sampling patterns (points, lines, regions). A diffeomorphic correspondence modeling framework is employed to relate multidimensional breathing signals derived from simulated range images to internal motion patterns represented by diffeomorphic non-linear transformations. Furthermore, an automatic approach for the selection of optimal signal combinations/patterns within this framework is presented. This simulation study focuses on lung motion estimation and is based on 28 4D CT data sets. The results show that the use of multidimensional signals instead of one-dimensional signals significantly improves the motion estimation accuracy, which is, however, highly affected by noise. Only small differences exist between different multidimensional sampling patterns (lines and regions). Automatically determined optimal combinations of points and lines do not lead to accuracy improvements compared to results obtained by using all points or lines. Our results show the potential of multidimensional breathing signals derived from range images for the model-based estimation of respiratory motion in radiation therapy.

  6. Range estimates and habitat use of invasive Silver Carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix): Evidence of sedentary and mobile individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prechtel, Austin R.; Coulter, Alison A.; Etchison, Luke; Jackson, P. Ryan; Goforth, Reuben R.

    2018-01-01

    Unregulated rivers provide unobstructed corridors for the dispersal of both native and invasive species. We sought to evaluate range size and habitat use of an invasive species (Silver Carp, Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) in an unimpounded river reach (Wabash River, IN), to provide insights into the dispersal of invasive species and their potential overlap with native species. We hypothesized that range size would increase with fish length, be similar among sexes, and vary annually while habitats used would be deeper, warmer, lower velocity, and of finer substrate. Silver Carp habitat use supported our hypotheses but range size did not vary with sex or length. 75% home range varied annually, suggesting that core areas occupied by individuals may change relative to climate-based factors (e.g., water levels), whereas broader estimates of range size remained constant across years. Ranges were often centered on landscape features such as tributaries and backwaters. Results of this study indicate habitat and landscape features as potential areas where Silver Carp impacts on native ecosystems may be the greatest. Observed distribution of range sizes indicates the presence of sedentary and mobile individuals within the population. Mobile individuals may be of particular importance as they drive the spread of the invasive species into new habitats.

  7. [Forensic age estimation in juveniles and young adults: Reducing the range of scatter in age diagnosis by combining different methods].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Sven; Schramm, Danilo; Ribbecke, Sebastian; Schulz, Ronald; Wittschieber, Daniel; Olze, Andreas; Vieth, Volker; Ramsthaler, H Frank; Pfischel, Klaus; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Geserick, Gunther; Schmeling, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    The dramatic rise in the number of refugees entering Germany means that age estimation for juveniles and young adults whose age is unclear but relevant to legal and official procedures has become more important than ever. Until now, whether and to what extent the combination of methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics has resulted in a reduction of the range of scatter of the summarized age diagnosis has been unclear. Hand skeletal age, third molar mineralization stage and ossification stage of the medial clavicular epiphyses were determined for 307 individuals aged between 10 and 29 at time of death on whom autopsies were performed at the Institutes of Legal Medicine in Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg between 2001 and 2011. To measure the range of scatter, linear regression analysis was used to calculate the standard error of estimate for each of the above methods individually and in combination. It was found that combining the above methods led to a reduction in the range of scatter. Due to various limitations of the study, the statistical parameters determined cannot, however, be used for age estimation practice.

  8. Proposed Reliability/Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1982-01-01

    New technique estimates cost of improvement in reliability for complex system. Model format/approach is dependent upon use of subsystem cost-estimating relationships (CER's) in devising cost-effective policy. Proposed methodology should have application in broad range of engineering management decisions.

  9. Free-ranging domestic cats (Felis catus) on public lands: estimating density, activity, and diet in the Florida Keys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cove, Michael V.; Gardner, Beth; Simons, Theodore R.; Kays, Roland; O'Connell, Allan F.

    2017-01-01

    Feral and free-ranging domestic cats (Felis catus) can have strong negative effects on small mammals and birds, particularly in island ecosystems. We deployed camera traps to study free-ranging cats in national wildlife refuges and state parks on Big Pine Key and Key Largo in the Florida Keys, USA, and used spatial capture–recapture models to estimate cat abundance, movement, and activities. We also used stable isotope analyses to examine the diet of cats captured on public lands. Top population models separated cats based on differences in movement and detection with three and two latent groups on Big Pine Key and Key Largo, respectively. We hypothesize that these latent groups represent feral, semi-feral, and indoor/outdoor house cats based on the estimated movement parameters of each group. Estimated cat densities and activity varied between the two islands, with relatively high densities (~4 cats/km2) exhibiting crepuscular diel patterns on Big Pine Key and lower densities (~1 cat/km2) exhibiting nocturnal diel patterns on Key Largo. These differences are most likely related to the higher proportion of house cats on Big Pine relative to Key Largo. Carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios from hair samples of free-ranging cats (n = 43) provided estimates of the proportion of wild and anthropogenic foods in cat diets. At the population level, cats on both islands consumed mostly anthropogenic foods (>80% of the diet), but eight individuals were effective predators of wildlife (>50% of the diet). We provide evidence that cat groups within a population move different distances, exhibit different activity patterns, and that individuals consume wildlife at different rates, which all have implications for managing this invasive predator.

  10. Theoretical basis, application, reliability, and sample size estimates of a Meridian Energy Analysis Device for Traditional Chinese Medicine Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Yen Tsai

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The Meridian Energy Analysis Device is currently a popular tool in the scientific research of meridian electrophysiology. In this field, it is generally believed that measuring the electrical conductivity of meridians provides information about the balance of bioenergy or Qi-blood in the body. METHODS AND RESULTS: PubMed database based on some original articles from 1956 to 2014 and the authoŕs clinical experience. In this short communication, we provide clinical examples of Meridian Energy Analysis Device application, especially in the field of traditional Chinese medicine, discuss the reliability of the measurements, and put the values obtained into context by considering items of considerable variability and by estimating sample size. CONCLUSION: The Meridian Energy Analysis Device is making a valuable contribution to the diagnosis of Qi-blood dysfunction. It can be assessed from short-term and long-term meridian bioenergy recordings. It is one of the few methods that allow outpatient traditional Chinese medicine diagnosis, monitoring the progress, therapeutic effect and evaluation of patient prognosis. The holistic approaches underlying the practice of traditional Chinese medicine and new trends in modern medicine toward the use of objective instruments require in-depth knowledge of the mechanisms of meridian energy, and the Meridian Energy Analysis Device can feasibly be used for understanding and interpreting traditional Chinese medicine theory, especially in view of its expansion in Western countries.

  11. TCS: a new multiple sequence alignment reliability measure to estimate alignment accuracy and improve phylogenetic tree reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jia-Ming; Di Tommaso, Paolo; Notredame, Cedric

    2014-06-01

    Multiple sequence alignment (MSA) is a key modeling procedure when analyzing biological sequences. Homology and evolutionary modeling are the most common applications of MSAs. Both are known to be sensitive to the underlying MSA accuracy. In this work, we show how this problem can be partly overcome using the transitive consistency score (TCS), an extended version of the T-Coffee scoring scheme. Using this local evaluation function, we show that one can identify the most reliable portions of an MSA, as judged from BAliBASE and PREFAB structure-based reference alignments. We also show how this measure can be used to improve phylogenetic tree reconstruction using both an established simulated data set and a novel empirical yeast data set. For this purpose, we describe a novel lossless alternative to site filtering that involves overweighting the trustworthy columns. Our approach relies on the T-Coffee framework; it uses libraries of pairwise alignments to evaluate any third party MSA. Pairwise projections can be produced using fast or slow methods, thus allowing a trade-off between speed and accuracy. We compared TCS with Heads-or-Tails, GUIDANCE, Gblocks, and trimAl and found it to lead to significantly better estimates of structural accuracy and more accurate phylogenetic trees. The software is available from www.tcoffee.org/Projects/tcs. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Use of Atlantic Forest protected areas by free-ranging dogs: estimating abundance and persistence of use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschoal, Ana Maria; Massara, Rodrigo; Bailey, Larissa L.; Kendall, William L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Hirsch, Andre; Chiarello, Adriano; Paglia, Adriano

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) are one of the most common carnivoran species in natural areas and their populations are still increasing. Dogs have been shown to impact wildlife populations negatively, and their occurrence can alter the abundance, behavior, and activity patterns of native species. However, little is known about abundance and density of the free-ranging dogs that use protected areas. Here, we used camera trap data with an open-robust design mark–recapture model to estimate the number of dogs that used protected areas in Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We estimated the time period these dogs used the protected areas, and explored factors that influenced the probability of continued use (e.g., season, mammal richness, proportion of forest), while accounting for variation in detection probability. Dogs in the studied system were categorized as rural free-ranging, and their abundance varied widely across protected areas (0–73 individuals). Dogs used protected areas near human houses for longer periods (e.g., >50% of sampling occasions) compared to more distant areas. We found no evidence that their probability of continued use varied with season or mammal richness. Dog detection probability decreased linearly among occasions, possibly due to the owners confining their dogs after becoming aware of our presence. Comparing our estimates to those for native carnivoran, we found that dogs were three to 85 times more abundant than ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), two to 25 times more abundant than puma (Puma concolor), and approximately five times more abundant than the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous). Combining camera trapping data with modern mark–recapture methods provides important demographic information on free-ranging dogs that can guide management strategies to directly control dogs' abundance and ranging behavior.

  13. Frontiers of reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

    1998-01-01

    This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

  14. Estimating the possible range of recycling rates achieved by dump waste pickers: The case of Bantar Gebang in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Shunsuke; Araki, Tetsuya

    2014-06-01

    This article presents informal recycling contributions made by scavengers in the surrounding area of Bantar Gebang final disposal site for municipal solid waste generated in Jakarta. Preliminary fieldwork was conducted through daily conversations with scavengers to identify recycling actors at the site, and then quantitative field surveys were conducted twice. The first survey (n = 504 households) covered 33% of all households in the area, and the second survey (n = 69 households) was conducted to quantify transactions of recyclables among scavengers. Mathematical equations were formulated with assumptions made to estimate the possible range of recycling rates achieved by dump waste pickers. Slightly over 60% of all respondents were involved in informal recycling and over 80% of heads of households were waste pickers, normally referred to as live-in waste pickers and live-out waste pickers at the site. The largest percentage of their spouses were family workers, followed by waste pickers and housewives. Over 95% of all households of respondents had at least one waste picker or one small boss who has a coequal status of a waste picker. Average weight of recyclables collected by waste pickers at the site was estimated to be approximately 100 kg day(-1) per household on the net weight basis. The recycling rate of solid wastes collected by all scavengers at the site was estimated to be in the range of 2.8-7.5% of all solid wastes transported to the site. © The Author(s) 2014.

  15. MO-FG-CAMPUS-JeP1-03: Luminescence Imaging of Water During Proton Beam Irradiation for Range Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, S; Komori, M; Toshito, T; Watabe, H

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Since proton therapy has the ability to selectively deliver a dose to a target tumor, the dose distribution should be accurately measured. A precise and efficient method to evaluate the dose distribution is desired. We found that luminescence was emitted from water during proton irradiation and thought this phenomenon could be used for estimating the dose distribution. Methods: For this purpose, we placed water phantoms set on a table with a spot-scanning proton-therapy system, and luminescence images of these phantoms were measured with a high-sensitivity cooled charge coupled device (CCD) camera during proton-beam irradiation. We also conducted the imaging of phantoms of pure-water, fluorescein solution and acrylic block. We made three dimensional images from the projection data. Results: The luminescence images of water phantoms during the proton-beam irradiations showed clear Bragg peaks, and the measured proton ranges from the images were almost the same as those obtained with an ionization chamber. The image of the pure-water phantom also showed almost the same distribution as the tap-water phantom, indicating that the luminescence image was not related to impurities in the water. The luminescence image of fluorescein solution had ∼3 times higher intensity than water, with the same proton range as that of water. The luminescence image of the acrylic phantom had 14.5% shorter proton range than that of water; the proton range in the acrylic phantom was relatively matched with the calculated value. The luminescence images of the tap-water phantom during proton irradiation could be obtained in less than 2 sec. Three dimensional images were successfully obtained which have more quantitative information. Conclusion: Luminescence imaging during proton-beam irradiation has the potential to be a new method for range estimations in proton therapy.

  16. MO-FG-CAMPUS-JeP1-03: Luminescence Imaging of Water During Proton Beam Irradiation for Range Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamamoto, S; Komori, M [Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi (Japan); Toshito, T [Nagoya Proton Therapy Center, Nagoya, Aichi (Japan); Watabe, H [Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi (Japan)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Since proton therapy has the ability to selectively deliver a dose to a target tumor, the dose distribution should be accurately measured. A precise and efficient method to evaluate the dose distribution is desired. We found that luminescence was emitted from water during proton irradiation and thought this phenomenon could be used for estimating the dose distribution. Methods: For this purpose, we placed water phantoms set on a table with a spot-scanning proton-therapy system, and luminescence images of these phantoms were measured with a high-sensitivity cooled charge coupled device (CCD) camera during proton-beam irradiation. We also conducted the imaging of phantoms of pure-water, fluorescein solution and acrylic block. We made three dimensional images from the projection data. Results: The luminescence images of water phantoms during the proton-beam irradiations showed clear Bragg peaks, and the measured proton ranges from the images were almost the same as those obtained with an ionization chamber. The image of the pure-water phantom also showed almost the same distribution as the tap-water phantom, indicating that the luminescence image was not related to impurities in the water. The luminescence image of fluorescein solution had ∼3 times higher intensity than water, with the same proton range as that of water. The luminescence image of the acrylic phantom had 14.5% shorter proton range than that of water; the proton range in the acrylic phantom was relatively matched with the calculated value. The luminescence images of the tap-water phantom during proton irradiation could be obtained in less than 2 sec. Three dimensional images were successfully obtained which have more quantitative information. Conclusion: Luminescence imaging during proton-beam irradiation has the potential to be a new method for range estimations in proton therapy.

  17. Combining Inferential and Deductive Approaches to Estimate the Potential Geographical Range of the Invasive Plant Pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireland, Kylie B.; Hardy, Giles E. St. J.; Kriticos, Darren J.

    2013-01-01

    Phytophthora ramorum, an invasive plant pathogen of unknown origin, causes considerable and widespread damage in plant industries and natural ecosystems of the USA and Europe. Estimating the potential geographical range of P. ramorum has been complicated by a lack of biological and geographical data with which to calibrate climatic models. Previous attempts to do so, using either invaded range data or surrogate species approaches, have delivered varying results. A simulation model was developed using CLIMEX to estimate the global climate suitability patterns for establishment of P. ramorum. Growth requirements and stress response parameters were derived from ecophysiological laboratory observations and site-level transmission and disease factors related to climate data in the field. Geographical distribution data from the USA (California and Oregon) and Norway were reserved from model-fitting and used to validate the models. The model suggests that the invasion of P. ramorum in both North America and Europe is still in its infancy and that it is presently occupying a small fraction of its potential range. Phytophthora ramorum appears to be climatically suited to large areas of Africa, Australasia and South America, where it could cause biodiversity and economic losses in plant industries and natural ecosystems with susceptible hosts if introduced. PMID:23667628

  18. Lineage range estimation method reveals fine-scale endemism linked to Pleistocene stability in Australian rainforest herpetofauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosauer, Dan F; Catullo, Renee A; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moussalli, Adnan; Moritz, Craig

    2015-01-01

    Areas of suitable habitat for species and communities have arisen, shifted, and disappeared with Pleistocene climate cycles, and through this shifting landscape, current biodiversity has found paths to the present. Evolutionary refugia, areas of relative habitat stability in this shifting landscape, support persistence of lineages through time, and are thus crucial to the accumulation and maintenance of biodiversity. Areas of endemism are indicative of refugial areas where diversity has persisted, and endemism of intraspecific lineages in particular is strongly associated with late-Pleistocene habitat stability. However, it remains a challenge to consistently estimate the geographic ranges of intraspecific lineages and thus infer phylogeographic endemism, because spatial sampling for genetic analyses is typically sparse relative to species records. We present a novel technique to model the geographic distribution of intraspecific lineages, which is informed by the ecological niche of a species and known locations of its constituent lineages. Our approach allows for the effects of isolation by unsuitable habitat, and captures uncertainty in the extent of lineage ranges. Applying this method to the arc of rainforest areas spanning 3500 km in eastern Australia, we estimated lineage endemism for 53 species of rainforest dependent herpetofauna with available phylogeographic data. We related endemism to the stability of rainforest habitat over the past 120,000 years and identified distinct concentrations of lineage endemism that can be considered putative refugia. These areas of lineage endemism are strongly related to historical stability of rainforest habitat, after controlling for the effects of current environment. In fact, a dynamic stability model that allows movement to track suitable habitat over time was the most important factor in explaining current patterns of endemism. The techniques presented here provide an objective, practical method for estimating

  19. Design and validation of new genotypic tools for easy and reliable estimation of HIV tropism before using CCR5 antagonists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, Eva; Seclén, Eduardo; González, María del Mar; García, Federico; Chueca, Natalia; Aguilera, Antonio; Rodríguez, Jose Javier; González-Lahoz, Juan; Soriano, Vincent

    2009-05-01

    Genotypic tools may allow easier and less expensive estimation of HIV tropism before prescription of CCR5 antagonists compared with the Trofile assay (Monogram Biosciences, South San Francisco, CA, USA). Paired genotypic and Trofile results were compared in plasma samples derived from the maraviroc expanded access programme (EAP) in Europe. A new genotypic approach was built to improve the sensitivity to detect X4 variants based on an optimization of the webPSSM algorithm. Then, the new tool was validated in specimens from patients included in the ALLEGRO trial, a multicentre study conducted in Spain to assess the prevalence of R5 variants in treatment-experienced HIV patients. A total of 266 specimens from the maraviroc EAP were tested. Overall geno/pheno concordance was above 72%. A high specificity was generally seen for the detection of X4 variants using genotypic tools (ranging from 58% to 95%), while sensitivity was low (ranging from 31% to 76%). The PSSM score was then optimized to enhance the sensitivity to detect X4 variants changing the original threshold for R5 categorization. The new PSSM algorithms, PSSM(X4R5-8) and PSSM(SINSI-6.4), considered as X4 all V3 scoring values above -8 or -6.4, respectively, increasing the sensitivity to detect X4 variants up to 80%. The new algorithms were then validated in 148 specimens derived from patients included in the ALLEGRO trial. The sensitivity/specificity to detect X4 variants was 93%/69% for PSSM(X4R5-8) and 93%/70% for PSSM(SINSI-6.4). PSSM(X4R5-8) and PSSM(SINSI-6.4) may confidently assist therapeutic decisions for using CCR5 antagonists in HIV patients, providing an easier and rapid estimation of tropism in clinical samples.

  20. Methods of Estimation the Reliability and Increasing the Informativeness of the Laboratory Results (Analysis of the Laboratory Case of Measurement the Indicators of Thyroid Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N A Kovyazina

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the study was to demonstrate the multilevel laboratory quality management system and point at the methods of estimating the reliability and increasing the amount of information content of the laboratory results (on the example of the laboratory case. Results. The article examines the stages of laboratory quality management which has helped to estimate the reliability of the results of determining Free T3, Free T4 and TSH. The measurement results are presented by the expanded uncertainty and the evaluation of the dynamics. Conclusion. Compliance with mandatory measures for laboratory quality management system enables laboratories to obtain reliable results and calculate the parameters that are able to increase the amount of information content of laboratory tests in clinical decision making.

  1. Reliability of the Core Items in the General Social Survey: Estimates from the Three-Wave Panels, 2006–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Hout

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We used standard and multilevel models to assess the reliability of core items in the General Social Survey panel studies spanning 2006 to 2014. Most of the 293 core items scored well on the measure of reliability: 62 items (21 percent had reliability measures greater than 0.85; another 71 (24 percent had reliability measures between 0.70 and 0.85. Objective items, especially facts about demography and religion, were generally more reliable than subjective items. The economic recession of 2007–2009, the slow recovery afterward, and the election of Barack Obama in 2008 altered the social context in ways that may look like unreliability of items. For example, unemployment status, hours worked, and weeks worked have lower reliability than most work-related items, reflecting the consequences of the recession on the facts of peoples lives. Items regarding racial and gender discrimination and racial stereotypes scored as particularly unreliable, accounting for most of the 15 items with reliability coefficients less than 0.40. Our results allow scholars to more easily take measurement reliability into consideration in their own research, while also highlighting the limitations of these approaches.

  2. Accuracy of a Classical Test Theory-Based Procedure for Estimating the Reliability of a Multistage Test. Research Report. ETS RR-17-02

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sooyeon; Livingston, Samuel A.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this simulation study was to assess the accuracy of a classical test theory (CTT)-based procedure for estimating the alternate-forms reliability of scores on a multistage test (MST) having 3 stages. We generated item difficulty and discrimination parameters for 10 parallel, nonoverlapping forms of the complete 3-stage test and…

  3. Lifetime estimates of a fusion reactor first wall by linear damage summation and strain range partitioning methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, K.C.; Grossbeck, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    A generalized model of a first wall made of 20% cold-worked steel was examined for neutron wall loadings ranging from 2 to 5 MW/m 2 . A spectrum of simplified on-off duty cycles was assumed with a 95% burn time. Independent evaluations of cyclic lifetimes were based on two methods: the method of linear damage summation currently being employed for use in ASME high-temperature design Code Case N-47 and that of strain range partitioning being studied for inclusion in the design code. An important point is that the latter method can incorporate a known decrease in ductility for materials subject to irradiation as a parameter, so low-cycle fatigue behavior can be estimated for irradiated material. Lifetimes predicted by the two methods agree reasonably well despite their diversity in concept. Lack of high-cycle fatigue data for the material tested at temperatures within the range of our interest precludes making conclusions on the accuracy of the predicted results, but such data are forthcoming. The analysis includes stress relaxation due to thermal and irradiation-induced creep. Reduced ductility values from irradiations that simulate the environment of the first wall of a fusion reactor were used to estimate the lifetime of the first wall under irradiation. These results indicate that 20% cold-worked type 316 stainless steel could be used as a first-wall material meeting a 8 to 10 MW-year/m 2 lifetime goal for a neutron wall loading of about 2 MW-year/m 2 and a maximum temperature of about 500 0 C

  4. System Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Tae Jin

    2005-02-01

    This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

  5. The reliability and accuracy of estimating heart-rates from RGB video recorded on a consumer grade camera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Adam; Vincely, Vinoin; Lloyd, Paige; Hugenberg, Kurt; Vishwanath, Karthik

    2017-03-01

    Video Photoplethysmography (VPPG) is a numerical technique to process standard RGB video data of exposed human skin and extracting the heart-rate (HR) from the skin areas. Being a non-contact technique, VPPG has the potential to provide estimates of subject's heart-rate, respiratory rate, and even the heart rate variability of human subjects with potential applications ranging from infant monitors, remote healthcare and psychological experiments, particularly given the non-contact and sensor-free nature of the technique. Though several previous studies have reported successful correlations in HR obtained using VPPG algorithms to HR measured using the gold-standard electrocardiograph, others have reported that these correlations are dependent on controlling for duration of the video-data analyzed, subject motion, and ambient lighting. Here, we investigate the ability of two commonly used VPPG-algorithms in extraction of human heart-rates under three different laboratory conditions. We compare the VPPG HR values extracted across these three sets of experiments to the gold-standard values acquired by using an electrocardiogram or a commercially available pulseoximeter. The two VPPG-algorithms were applied with and without KLT-facial feature tracking and detection algorithms from the Computer Vision MATLAB® toolbox. Results indicate that VPPG based numerical approaches have the ability to provide robust estimates of subject HR values and are relatively insensitive to the devices used to record the video data. However, they are highly sensitive to conditions of video acquisition including subject motion, the location, size and averaging techniques applied to regions-of-interest as well as to the number of video frames used for data processing.

  6. An overview of coefficient alpha and a reliability matrix for estimating adequacy of internal consistency coefficients with psychological research measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponterotto, Joseph G; Ruckdeschel, Daniel E

    2007-12-01

    The present article addresses issues in reliability assessment that are often neglected in psychological research such as acceptable levels of internal consistency for research purposes, factors affecting the magnitude of coefficient alpha (alpha), and considerations for interpreting alpha within the research context. A new reliability matrix anchored in classical test theory is introduced to help researchers judge adequacy of internal consistency coefficients with research measures. Guidelines and cautions in applying the matrix are provided.

  7. Ecological ranges for the pH and NO3 of syntaxa: a new basis for the estimation of critical loads for acid and nitrogen deposition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wamelink, G.W.W.; Goedhart, P.W.; Malinowska, A.H.; Frissel, J.Y.; Wegman, R.M.A.; Slim, P.A.; Dobben, van H.F.

    2011-01-01

    Question: Can the abiotic ranges of syntaxonomic units (associations) in terms of pH and nitrate concentration be estimated and then in principle be used to estimate critical loads for acid and nitrogen deposition? Location: Europe. Methods: Using splines, abiotic ranges of syntaxonomic units were

  8. A fast-reliable methodology to estimate the concentration of rutile or anatase phases of TiO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Zanatta

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Titanium-dioxide (TiO2 is a low-cost, chemically inert material that became the basis of many modern applications ranging from, for example, cosmetics to photovoltaics. TiO2 exists in three different crystal phases − Rutile, Anatase and, less commonly, Brookite − and, in most of the cases, the presence or relative amount of these phases are essential to decide the TiO2 final application and its related efficiency. Traditionally, X-ray diffraction has been chosen to study TiO2 and provides both the phases identification and the Rutile-to-Anatase ratio. Similar information can be achieved from Raman scattering spectroscopy that, additionally, is versatile and involves rather simple instrumentation. Motivated by these aspects this work took into account various TiO2 Rutile+Anatase powder mixtures and their corresponding Raman spectra. Essentially, the method described here was based upon the fact that the Rutile and Anatase crystal phases have distinctive phonon features, and therefore, the composition of the TiO2 mixtures can be readily assessed from their Raman spectra. The experimental results clearly demonstrate the suitability of Raman spectroscopy in estimating the concentration of Rutile or Anatase in TiO2 and is expected to influence the study of TiO2-related thin films, interfaces, systems with reduced dimensions, and devices like photocatalytic and solar cells.

  9. Validation and reliability of the sex estimation of the human os coxae using freely available DSP2 software for bioarchaeology and forensic anthropology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brůžek, Jaroslav; Santos, Frédéric; Dutailly, Bruno; Murail, Pascal; Cunha, Eugenia

    2017-10-01

    A new tool for skeletal sex estimation based on measurements of the human os coxae is presented using skeletons from a metapopulation of identified adult individuals from twelve independent population samples. For reliable sex estimation, a posterior probability greater than 0.95 was considered to be the classification threshold: below this value, estimates are considered indeterminate. By providing free software, we aim to develop an even more disseminated method for sex estimation. Ten metric variables collected from 2,040 ossa coxa of adult subjects of known sex were recorded between 1986 and 2002 (reference sample). To test both the validity and reliability, a target sample consisting of two series of adult ossa coxa of known sex (n = 623) was used. The DSP2 software (Diagnose Sexuelle Probabiliste v2) is based on Linear Discriminant Analysis, and the posterior probabilities are calculated using an R script. For the reference sample, any combination of four dimensions provides a correct sex estimate in at least 99% of cases. The percentage of individuals for whom sex can be estimated depends on the number of dimensions; for all ten variables it is higher than 90%. Those results are confirmed in the target sample. Our posterior probability threshold of 0.95 for sex estimate corresponds to the traditional sectioning point used in osteological studies. DSP2 software is replacing the former version that should not be used anymore. DSP2 is a robust and reliable technique for sexing adult os coxae, and is also user friendly. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Shear modulus estimation on vastus intermedius of elderly and young females over the entire range of isometric contraction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cong-Zhi Wang

    Full Text Available Elderly people often suffer from sarcopenia in their lower extremities, which gives rise to the increased susceptibility of fall. Comparing the mechanical properties of the knee extensor/flexors on elderly and young subjects is helpful in understanding the underlying mechanisms of the muscle aging process. However, although the stiffness of skeletal muscle has been proved to be positively correlated to its non-fatiguing contraction intensity by some existing methods, this conclusion has not been verified above 50% maximum voluntary contraction (MVC due to the limitation of their measurement range. In this study, a vibro-ultrasound system was set up to achieve a considerably larger measurement range on muscle stiffness estimation. Its feasibility was verified on self-made silicone phantoms by comparing with the mechanical indentation method. The system was then used to assess the stiffness of vastus intermedius (VI, one of the knee extensors, on 10 healthy elderly female subjects (56.7 ± 4.9 yr and 10 healthy young female subjects (27.6 ± 5.0 yr. The VI stiffness in its action direction was confirmed to be positively correlated to the % MVC level (R2 = 0.999 over the entire range of isometric contraction, i.e. from 0% MVC (relaxed state to 100% MVC. Furthermore, it was shown that there was no significant difference between the mean VI shear modulus of the elderly and young subjects in a relaxed state (p > 0.1. However, when performing step isometric contraction, the VI stiffness of young female subjects was found to be larger than that of elderly participants (p < 0.001, especially at the relatively higher contraction levels. The results expanded our knowledge on the mechanical property of the elderly's skeletal muscle and its relationship with intensity of active contraction. Furthermore, the vibro-ultrasound system has a potential to become a powerful tool for investigating the elderly's muscle diseases.

  11. Feasibility Study of a Simulation Driven Approach for Estimating Reliability of Wind Turbine Fluid Power Pitch Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liniger, Jesper; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; N. Soltani, Mohsen

    2018-01-01

    Recent field data indicates that pitch systems account for a substantial part of a wind turbines down time. Reducing downtime means increasing the total amount of energy produced during its lifetime. Both electrical and fluid power pitch systems are employed with a roughly 50/50 distribution. Fluid...... power pitch systems generally show higher reliability and have been favored on larger offshore wind turbines. Still general issues such as leakage, contamination and electrical faults make current systems work sub-optimal. Current field data for wind turbines present overall pitch system reliability...... and the reliability of component groups (valves, accumulators, pumps etc.). However, the failure modes of the components and more importantly the root causes are not evident. The root causes and failure mode probabilities are central for changing current pitch system designs and operational concepts to increase...

  12. Microelectronics Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-17

    inverters  connected in a chain. ................................................. 5  Figure 3  Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental  reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the  lifetime  reliability of advanced devices,  circuits and...or  FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device  lifetime  was found and thus the  reliability  that  can  be  conveniently

  13. An investigation into the minimum accelerometry wear time for reliable estimates of habitual physical activity and definition of a standard measurement day in pre-school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hislop, Jane; Law, James; Rush, Robert; Grainger, Andrew; Bulley, Cathy; Reilly, John J; Mercer, Tom

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the number of hours and days of accelerometry data necessary to provide a reliable estimate of habitual physical activity in pre-school children. The impact of a weekend day on reliability estimates was also determined and standard measurement days were defined for weekend and weekdays.Accelerometry data were collected from 112 children (60 males, 52 females, mean (SD) 3.7 (0.7)yr) over 7 d. The Spearman-Brown Prophecy formula (S-B prophecy formula) was used to predict the number of days and hours of data required to achieve an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.7. The impact of including a weekend day was evaluated by comparing the reliability coefficient (r) for any 4 d of data with data for 4 d including one weekend day.Our observations indicate that 3 d of accelerometry monitoring, regardless of whether it includes a weekend day, for at least 7 h  d(-1) offers sufficient reliability to characterise total physical activity and sedentary behaviour of pre-school children. These findings offer an approach that addresses the underlying tension in epidemiologic surveillance studies between the need to maintain acceptable measurement rigour and retention of a representatively meaningful sample size.

  14. Reliability of tumor volume estimation from MR images in patients with malignant glioma. Results from the American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ACRIN) 6662 Trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ertl-Wagner, Birgit B.; Blume, Jeffrey D.; Herman, Benjamin; Peck, Donald; Udupa, Jayaram K.; Levering, Anthony; Schmalfuss, Ilona M.

    2009-01-01

    Reliable assessment of tumor growth in malignant glioma poses a common problem both clinically and when studying novel therapeutic agents. We aimed to evaluate two software-systems in their ability to estimate volume change of tumor and/or edema on magnetic resonance (MR) images of malignant gliomas. Twenty patients with malignant glioma were included from different sites. Serial post-operative MR images were assessed with two software systems representative of the two fundamental segmentation methods, single-image fuzzy analysis (3DVIEWNIX-TV) and multi-spectral-image analysis (Eigentool), and with a manual method by 16 independent readers (eight MR-certified technologists, four neuroradiology fellows, four neuroradiologists). Enhancing tumor volume and tumor volume plus edema were assessed independently by each reader. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), variance components, and prediction intervals were estimated. There were no significant differences in the average tumor volume change over time between the software systems (p > 0.05). Both software systems were much more reliable and yielded smaller prediction intervals than manual measurements. No significant differences were observed between the volume changes determined by fellows/neuroradiologists or technologists.Semi-automated software systems are reliable tools to serve as outcome parameters in clinical studies and the basis for therapeutic decision-making for malignant gliomas, whereas manual measurements are less reliable and should not be the basis for clinical or research outcome studies. (orig.)

  15. Online Identification with Reliability Criterion and State of Charge Estimation Based on a Fuzzy Adaptive Extended Kalman Filter for Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongwei Deng

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the field of state of charge (SOC estimation, the Kalman filter has been widely used for many years, although its performance strongly depends on the accuracy of the battery model as well as the noise covariance. The Kalman gain determines the confidence coefficient of the battery model by adjusting the weight of open circuit voltage (OCV correction, and has a strong correlation with the measurement noise covariance (R. In this paper, the online identification method is applied to acquire the real model parameters under different operation conditions. A criterion based on the OCV error is proposed to evaluate the reliability of online parameters. Besides, the equivalent circuit model produces an intrinsic model error which is dependent on the load current, and the property that a high battery current or a large current change induces a large model error can be observed. Based on the above prior knowledge, a fuzzy model is established to compensate the model error through updating R. Combining the positive strategy (i.e., online identification and negative strategy (i.e., fuzzy model, a more reliable and robust SOC estimation algorithm is proposed. The experiment results verify the proposed reliability criterion and SOC estimation method under various conditions for LiFePO4 batteries.

  16. Economic Viability Study of an On-Road Wireless Charging System with a Generic Driving Range Estimation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditya Shekhar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The economic viability of on-road wireless charging of electric vehicles (EVs strongly depends on the choice of the inductive power transfer (IPT system configuration (static or dynamic charging, charging power level and the percentage of road coverage of dynamic charging. In this paper, a case study is carried out to determine the expected investment costs involved in installing the on-road charging infrastructure for an electric bus fleet. Firstly, a generic methodology is described to determine the driving range of any EV (including electric buses with any gross mass and frontal area. A dynamic power consumption model is developed for the EV, taking into account the rolling friction, acceleration, deceleration, aerodynamic drag, regenerative braking and Li-ion battery behavior. Based on the simulation results, the linear dependence of the battery state of charge (SoC on the distance traveled is proven. Further, the impact of different IPT system parameters on driving range is incorporated. Economic implications of a combination of different IPT system parameters are explored for achieving the required driving range of 400 km, and the cost optimized solution is presented for the case study of an electric bus fleet. It is shown that the choice of charging power level and road coverage are interrelated in the economic context. The economic viability of reducing the capacity of the on-board battery as a trade-off between higher transport efficiency and larger on-road charging infrastructure is presented. Finally, important considerations, like the number of average running buses, scheduled stoppage time and on-board battery size, that make on-road charging an attractive option are explored. The cost break-up of various system components of the on-road charging scheme is estimated, and the final project cost and parameters are summarized. The specific cost of the wireless on-road charging system is found to be more expensive than the conventional

  17. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

    1993-08-01

    This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

  18. The interrater and test-retest reliability of the Home Falls and Accidents Screening Tool (HOME FAST) in Malaysia: Using raters with a range of professional backgrounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romli, Muhammad Hibatullah; Mackenzie, Lynette; Lovarini, Meryl; Tan, Maw Pin; Clemson, Lindy

    2017-06-01

    Falls can be a devastating issue for older people living in the community, including those living in Malaysia. Health professionals and community members have a responsibility to ensure that older people have a safe home environment to reduce the risk of falls. Using a standardised screening tool is beneficial to intervene early with this group. The Home Falls and Accidents Screening Tool (HOME FAST) should be considered for this purpose; however, its use in Malaysia has not been studied. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the interrater and test-retest reliability of the HOME FAST with multiple professionals in the Malaysian context. A cross-sectional design was used to evaluate interrater reliability where the HOME FAST was used simultaneously in the homes of older people by 2 raters and a prospective design was used to evaluate test-retest reliability with a separate group of older people at different times in their homes. Both studies took place in an urban area of Kuala Lumpur. Professionals from 9 professional backgrounds participated as raters in this study, and a group of 51 community older people were recruited for the interrater reliability study and another group of 30 for the test-retest reliability study. The overall agreement was moderate for interrater reliability and good for test-retest reliability. The HOME FAST was consistently rated by different professionals, and no bias was found among the multiple raters. The HOME FAST can be used with confidence by a variety of professionals across different settings. The HOME FAST can become a universal tool to screen for home hazards related to falls. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itagaki, H. [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H.; Ito, S. [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M.

    1996-12-31

    Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itagaki, H [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H; Ito, S [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M

    1997-12-31

    Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  1. Estimating concentrations of fine-grained and total suspended sediment from close-range remote sensing imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosbrucker, Adam; Spicer, Kurt R.; Christianson, Tami; Uhrich, Mark A.

    2015-01-01

    data range among sensors. Of greatest interest to many programs is a hysteresis in the relationship between turbidity and SSC, attributed to temporal variation of particle size distribution (Landers and Sturm, 2013; Uhrich et al., 2014). This phenomenon causes increased uncertainty in regression-estimated values of SSC, due to changes in nephelometric reflectance off the varying grain sizes in suspension (Uhrich et al., 2014). Here, we assess the feasibility and application of close-range remote sensing to quantify SSC and particle size distribution of a disturbed, and highly-turbid, river system. We use a consumer-grade digital camera to acquire imagery of the river surface and a depth-integrating sampler to collect concurrent suspended-sediment samples. We then develop two empirical linear regression models to relate image spectral information to concentrations of fine sediment (clay to silt) and total suspended sediment. Before presenting our regression model development, we briefly summarize each data-acquisition method.

  2. Reliability and concurrent validity of the iPhone® Compass application to measure thoracic rotation range of motion (ROM) in healthy participants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schram, Ben; Cox, Alistair J.; Anderson, Sarah L.; Keogh, Justin

    2018-01-01

    Background Several water-based sports (swimming, surfing and stand up paddle boarding) require adequate thoracic mobility (specifically rotation) in order to perform the appropriate activity requirements. The measurement of thoracic spine rotation is problematic for clinicians due to a lack of convenient and reliable measurement techniques. More recently, smartphones have been used to quantify movement in various joints in the body; however, there appears to be a paucity of research using smartphones to assess thoracic spine movement. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the reliability (intra and inter rater) and validity of the iPhone® app (Compass) when assessing thoracic spine rotation ROM in healthy individuals. Methods A total of thirty participants were recruited for this study. Thoracic spine rotation ROM was measured using both the current clinical gold standard, a universal goniometer (UG) and the Smart Phone Compass app. Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability was determined with a Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). Validation of the Compass app in comparison to the UG was measured using Pearson’s correlation coefficient and levels of agreement were identified with Bland–Altman plots and 95% limits of agreement. Results Both the UG and Compass app measurements both had excellent reproducibility for intra-rater (ICC 0.94–0.98) and inter-rater reliability (ICC 0.72–0.89). However, the Compass app measurements had higher intra-rater reliability (ICC = 0.96 − 0.98; 95% CI [0.93–0.99]; vs. ICC = 0.94 − 0.98; 95% CI [0.88–0.99]) and inter-rater reliability (ICC = 0.87 − 0.89; 95% CI [0.74–0.95] vs. ICC = 0.72 − 0.82; 95% CI [0.21–0.94]). A strong and significant correlation was found between the UG and the Compass app, demonstrating good concurrent validity (r = 0.835, p reliable tool for measuring thoracic spine rotation which produces greater

  3. Concurrent validity and reliability of torso-worn inertial measurement unit for jump power and height estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rantalainen, Timo; Gastin, Paul B; Spangler, Rhys; Wundersitz, Daniel

    2018-09-01

    The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the concurrent validity and test-retest repeatability of torso-worn IMU-derived power and jump height in a counter-movement jump test. Twenty-seven healthy recreationally active males (age, 21.9 [SD 2.0] y, height, 1.76 [0.7] m, mass, 73.7 [10.3] kg) wore an IMU and completed three counter-movement jumps a week apart. A force platform and a 3D motion analysis system were used to concurrently measure the jumps and subsequently derive power and jump height (based on take-off velocity and flight time). The IMU significantly overestimated power (mean difference = 7.3 W/kg; P jump heights exhibited poorer concurrent validity (ICC = 0.72 to 0.78) and repeatability (ICC = 0.68) than flight-time-derived jump heights, which exhibited excellent validity (ICC = 0.93 to 0.96) and reliability (ICC = 0.91). Since jump height and power are closely related, and flight-time-derived jump height exhibits excellent concurrent validity and reliability, flight-time-derived jump height could provide a more desirable measure compared to power when assessing athletic performance in a counter-movement jump with IMUs.

  4. Electric power supply and demand 1978--1987 for the continuous United States as projected by the Regional Electric Reliability Councils in their April 1, 1978 long-range coordinated planning reports to the Department of Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-06-15

    The Regional Reliability Council projections of peak demand, generating capability, and electric energy requirements for the contiguous U.S. have declined for the fourth consecutive year. On the basis of these projections, it appears that the electric utility industry believes the U.S. will experience smaller annual increases in power use than have occurred in the past. The summer peak demand growth rates of the Councils range from 3.52 percent annually, as projected by the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, to the 6.21 percent projected by the Southwest Power Pool. Subregional growth covers a wider range, from the 2.77 percent of the New York Power Pool to the 6.51 percent of the Southern Company area. Total reserve margins at the time of summer peak demands are projected to decline from an estimated 30.16 percent in 1978 to about 23.81 percent in 1987. If projected loads are not exceeded, if projected capability levels are actually attained, if fuel requirements are satisfied, and if no contingencies worse than those normally met with are experienced, electric power supply should be adequate for the next decade. However, it is possible that the projected reserve margins will not be attained, and that adequate primary energy supply (fuel and hydro) will not be available when needed. Completion of generating units and transmission facilities on schedule is made uncertain by difficulties related to financing, environmental pressures, procedural delays and some inadequacies with respect to quality control of manufactured and field-assembled components.

  5. The influence of different error estimates in the detection of postoperative cognitive dysfunction using reliable change indices with correction for practice effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Matthew S; Maruff, Paul; Silbert, Brendan S; Evered, Lis A; Scott, David A

    2007-02-01

    The reliable change index (RCI) expresses change relative to its associated error, and is useful in the identification of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD). This paper examines four common RCIs that each account for error in different ways. Three rules incorporate a constant correction for practice effects and are contrasted with the standard RCI that had no correction for practice. These rules are applied to 160 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery who completed neuropsychological assessments preoperatively and 1 week postoperatively using error and reliability data from a comparable healthy nonsurgical control group. The rules all identify POCD in a similar proportion of patients, but the use of the within-subject standard deviation (WSD), expressing the effects of random error, as an error estimate is a theoretically appropriate denominator when a constant error correction, removing the effects of systematic error, is deducted from the numerator in a RCI.

  6. Reliability and concurrent validity of the iPhone® Compass application to measure thoracic rotation range of motion (ROM in healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Furness

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Several water-based sports (swimming, surfing and stand up paddle boarding require adequate thoracic mobility (specifically rotation in order to perform the appropriate activity requirements. The measurement of thoracic spine rotation is problematic for clinicians due to a lack of convenient and reliable measurement techniques. More recently, smartphones have been used to quantify movement in various joints in the body; however, there appears to be a paucity of research using smartphones to assess thoracic spine movement. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the reliability (intra and inter rater and validity of the iPhone® app (Compass when assessing thoracic spine rotation ROM in healthy individuals. Methods A total of thirty participants were recruited for this study. Thoracic spine rotation ROM was measured using both the current clinical gold standard, a universal goniometer (UG and the Smart Phone Compass app. Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability was determined with a Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI. Validation of the Compass app in comparison to the UG was measured using Pearson’s correlation coefficient and levels of agreement were identified with Bland–Altman plots and 95% limits of agreement. Results Both the UG and Compass app measurements both had excellent reproducibility for intra-rater (ICC 0.94–0.98 and inter-rater reliability (ICC 0.72–0.89. However, the Compass app measurements had higher intra-rater reliability (ICC = 0.96 − 0.98; 95% CI [0.93–0.99]; vs. ICC = 0.94 − 0.98; 95% CI [0.88–0.99] and inter-rater reliability (ICC = 0.87 − 0.89; 95% CI [0.74–0.95] vs. ICC = 0.72 − 0.82; 95% CI [0.21–0.94]. A strong and significant correlation was found between the UG and the Compass app, demonstrating good concurrent validity (r = 0.835, p < 0.001. Levels of agreement between the two devices were 24.8° (LoA –9

  7. Age group estimation in free-ranging African elephants based on acoustic cues of low-frequency rumbles

    OpenAIRE

    Stoeger, Angela S.; Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Baotic, Anton

    2014-01-01

    Animal vocal signals are increasingly used to monitor wildlife populations and to obtain estimates of species occurrence and abundance. In the future, acoustic monitoring should function not only to detect animals, but also to extract detailed information about populations by discriminating sexes, age groups, social or kin groups, and potentially individuals. Here we show that it is possible to estimate age groups of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on acoustic parameters extracte...

  8. Reliability of activation cross sections for estimation of shutdown dose rate in the ITER port cell and port interspace

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Raquel; García, Mauricio; Ogando, Francisco; Pampin, Raúl; Sanz, Javier

    2017-09-01

    This paper explores the quality of available activation cross section (XS) data for accurate Shutdown Dose Rate (SDDR) prediction in the ITER Port Cell and Port Interspace areas, where different maintenance activities are foreseen. For this purpose the EAF library (2007 and 2010 versions) has been investigated, as it is typically used by the ITER community. Based on both reports/papers on SDDR in ITER and own calculations, major nuclides contributing to the SDDR coming from the activation of i) relevant materials placed in ITER and ii) candidate materials for the bioshield plug as L2N and barite concretes, are identified. Then, relevant production pathways are obtained. EAF XS quality for all pathways is checked following the procedure used for validating and testing the successive EAF versions. Also, possible improvements from using the TENDL-2015 library are assessed by comparing EAF and TENDL XS with available differential experimental data from EXFOR. Results point out that most of the activation XS related to materials currently placed in ITER are reliable, and only a few need improvement. Also, many of the XS related to both L2N and barite concretes need further work for validation.

  9. Digital photography provides a fast, reliable, and noninvasive method to estimate anthocyanin pigment concentration in reproductive and vegetative plant tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Valle, José C; Gallardo-López, Antonio; Buide, Mª Luisa; Whittall, Justen B; Narbona, Eduardo

    2018-03-01

    Anthocyanin pigments have become a model trait for evolutionary ecology as they often provide adaptive benefits for plants. Anthocyanins have been traditionally quantified biochemically or more recently using spectral reflectance. However, both methods require destructive sampling and can be labor intensive and challenging with small samples. Recent advances in digital photography and image processing make it the method of choice for measuring color in the wild. Here, we use digital images as a quick, noninvasive method to estimate relative anthocyanin concentrations in species exhibiting color variation. Using a consumer-level digital camera and a free image processing toolbox, we extracted RGB values from digital images to generate color indices. We tested petals, stems, pedicels, and calyces of six species, which contain different types of anthocyanin pigments and exhibit different pigmentation patterns. Color indices were assessed by their correlation to biochemically determined anthocyanin concentrations. For comparison, we also calculated color indices from spectral reflectance and tested the correlation with anthocyanin concentration. Indices perform differently depending on the nature of the color variation. For both digital images and spectral reflectance, the most accurate estimates of anthocyanin concentration emerge from anthocyanin content-chroma ratio, anthocyanin content-chroma basic, and strength of green indices. Color indices derived from both digital images and spectral reflectance strongly correlate with biochemically determined anthocyanin concentration; however, the estimates from digital images performed better than spectral reflectance in terms of r 2 and normalized root-mean-square error. This was particularly noticeable in a species with striped petals, but in the case of striped calyces, both methods showed a comparable relationship with anthocyanin concentration. Using digital images brings new opportunities to accurately quantify the

  10. A Combined State of Charge Estimation Method for Lithium-Ion Batteries Used in a Wide Ambient Temperature Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Feng

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Ambient temperature is a significant factor that influences the characteristics of lithium-ion batteries, which can produce adverse effects on state of charge (SOC estimation. In this paper, an integrated SOC algorithm that combines an advanced ampere-hour counting (Adv Ah method and multistate open-circuit voltage (multi OCV method, denoted as “Adv Ah + multi OCV”, is proposed. Ah counting is a simple and general method for estimating SOC. However, the available capacity and coulombic efficiency in this method are influenced by the operating states of batteries, such as temperature and current, thereby causing SOC estimation errors. To address this problem, an enhanced Ah counting method that can alter the available capacity and coulombic efficiency according to temperature is proposed during the SOC calculation. Moreover, the battery SOCs between different temperatures can be mutually converted in accordance with the capacity loss. To compensate for the accumulating errors in Ah counting caused by the low precision of current sensors and lack of accurate initial SOC, the OCV method is used for calibration and as a complement. Given the variation of available capacities at different temperatures, rated/non-rated OCV–SOCs are established to estimate the initial SOCs in accordance with the Ah counting SOCs. Two dynamic tests, namely, constant- and alternated-temperature tests, are employed to verify the combined method at different temperatures. The results indicate that our method can provide effective and accurate SOC estimation at different ambient temperatures.

  11. Teaching Confirmatory Factor Analysis to Non-Statisticians: A Case Study for Estimating Composite Reliability of Psychometric Instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajewski, Byron J.; Jiang, Yu; Yeh, Hung-Wen; Engelman, Kimberly; Teel, Cynthia; Choi, Won S.; Greiner, K. Allen; Daley, Christine Makosky

    2013-01-01

    Texts and software that we are currently using for teaching multivariate analysis to non-statisticians lack in the delivery of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The purpose of this paper is to provide educators with a complement to these resources that includes CFA and its computation. We focus on how to use CFA to estimate a “composite reliability” of a psychometric instrument. This paper provides guidance for introducing, via a case-study, the non-statistician to CFA. As a complement to our instruction about the more traditional SPSS, we successfully piloted the software R for estimating CFA on nine non-statisticians. This approach can be used with healthcare graduate students taking a multivariate course, as well as modified for community stakeholders of our Center for American Indian Community Health (e.g. community advisory boards, summer interns, & research team members). The placement of CFA at the end of the class is strategic and gives us an opportunity to do some innovative teaching: (1) build ideas for understanding the case study using previous course work (such as ANOVA); (2) incorporate multi-dimensional scaling (that students already learned) into the selection of a factor structure (new concept); (3) use interactive data from the students (active learning); (4) review matrix algebra and its importance to psychometric evaluation; (5) show students how to do the calculation on their own; and (6) give students access to an actual recent research project. PMID:24772373

  12. The transverse diameter of the chest on routine radiographs reliably estimates gestational age and weight in premature infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Kelly R; Zhang, Lei; Seidel, Frank G

    2015-08-01

    Prior to digital radiography it was possible for a radiologist to easily estimate the size of a patient on an analog film. Because variable magnification may be applied at the time of processing an image, it is now more difficult to visually estimate an infant's size on the monitor. Since gestational age and weight significantly impact the differential diagnosis of neonatal diseases and determine the expected size of kidneys or appearance of the brain by MRI or US, this information is useful to a pediatric radiologist. Although this information may be present in the electronic medical record, it is frequently not readily available to the pediatric radiologist at the time of image interpretation. To determine if there was a correlation between gestational age and weight of a premature infant with their transverse chest diameter (rib to rib) on admission chest radiographs. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, which waived informed consent. The maximum transverse chest diameter outer rib to outer rib was measured on admission portable chest radiographs of 464 patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during the 2010 calendar year. Regression analysis was used to investigate the association between chest diameter and gestational age/birth weight. Quadratic term of chest diameter was used in the regression model. Chest diameter was statistically significantly associated with both gestational age (P chest diameter on digital chest radiograph with the tables and graphs in our study.

  13. Reliable and Damage-Free Estimation of Resistivity of ZnO Thin Films for Photovoltaic Applications Using Photoluminescence Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Poornima

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work projects photoluminescence (PL as an alternative technique to estimate the order of resistivity of zinc oxide (ZnO thin films. ZnO thin films, deposited using chemical spray pyrolysis (CSP by varying the deposition parameters like solvent, spray rate, pH of precursor, and so forth, have been used for this study. Variation in the deposition conditions has tremendous impact on the luminescence properties as well as resistivity. Two emissions could be recorded for all samples—the near band edge emission (NBE at 380 nm and the deep level emission (DLE at ~500 nm which are competing in nature. It is observed that the ratio of intensities of DLE to NBE (/ can be reduced by controlling oxygen incorporation in the sample. - measurements indicate that restricting oxygen incorporation reduces resistivity considerably. Variation of / and resistivity for samples prepared under different deposition conditions is similar in nature. / was always less than resistivity by an order for all samples. Thus from PL measurements alone, the order of resistivity of the samples can be estimated.

  14. Ultrasound estimates of muscle quality in older adults: reliability and comparison of Photoshop and ImageJ for the grayscale analysis of muscle echogenicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael O. Harris-Love

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background. Quantitative diagnostic ultrasound imaging has been proposed as a method of estimating muscle quality using measures of echogenicity. The Rectangular Marquee Tool (RMT and the Free Hand Tool (FHT are two types of editing features used in Photoshop and ImageJ for determining a region of interest (ROI within an ultrasound image. The primary objective of this study is to determine the intrarater and interrater reliability of Photoshop and ImageJ for the estimate of muscle tissue echogenicity in older adults via grayscale histogram analysis. The secondary objective is to compare the mean grayscale values obtained using both the RMT and FHT methods across both image analysis platforms. Methods. This cross-sectional observational study features 18 community-dwelling men (age = 61.5 ± 2.32 years. Longitudinal views of the rectus femoris were captured using B-mode ultrasound. The ROI for each scan was selected by 2 examiners using the RMT and FHT methods from each software program. Their reliability is assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs and the standard error of the measurement (SEM. Measurement agreement for these values is depicted using Bland-Altman plots. A paired t-test is used to determine mean differences in echogenicity expressed as grayscale values using the RMT and FHT methods to select the post-image acquisition ROI. The degree of association among ROI selection methods and image analysis platforms is analyzed using the coefficient of determination (R2. Results. The raters demonstrated excellent intrarater and interrater reliability using the RMT and FHT methods across both platforms (lower bound 95% CI ICC = .97–.99, p < .001. Mean differences between the echogenicity estimates obtained with the RMT and FHT methods was .87 grayscale levels (95% CI [.54–1.21], p < .0001 using data obtained with both programs. The SEM for Photoshop was .97 and 1.05 grayscale levels when using the RMT and FHT ROI selection

  15. Estimation technique of corrective effects for forecasting of reliability of the designed and operated objects of the generating systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truhanov, V. N.; Sultanov, M. M.

    2017-11-01

    In the present article researches of statistical material on the refusals and malfunctions influencing operability of heat power installations have been conducted. In this article the mathematical model of change of output characteristics of the turbine depending on number of the refusals revealed in use has been presented. The mathematical model is based on methods of mathematical statistics, probability theory and methods of matrix calculation. The novelty of this model is that it allows to predict the change of the output characteristic in time, and the operating influences have been presented in an explicit form. As desirable dynamics of change of the output characteristic (function, reliability) the law of distribution of Veybull which is universal is adopted since at various values of parameters it turns into other types of distributions (for example, exponential, normal, etc.) It should be noted that the choice of the desirable law of management allows to determine the necessary management parameters with use of the saved-up change of the output characteristic in general. The output characteristic can be changed both on the speed of change of management parameters, and on acceleration of change of management parameters. In this article the technique of an assessment of the pseudo-return matrix has been stated in detail by the method of the smallest squares and the standard Microsoft Excel functions. Also the technique of finding of the operating effects when finding restrictions both for the output characteristic, and on management parameters has been considered. In the article the order and the sequence of finding of management parameters has been stated. A concrete example of finding of the operating effects in the course of long-term operation of turbines has been shown.

  16. Evaluation of the appropriate time range for estimating the apparent permeability coefficient (P(app)) in a transcellular transport study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozeki, Kazuhisa; Kato, Motohiro; Sakurai, Yuuji; Ishigai, Masaki; Kudo, Toshiyuki; Ito, Kiyomi

    2015-11-30

    In a transcellular transport study, the apparent permeability coefficient (Papp) of a compound is evaluated using the range by which the amount of compound accumulated on the receiver side is assumed to be proportional to time. However, the time profile of the concentration of the compound in receiver (C3) often shows a lag time before reaching the linear range and later changes from linear to steady state. In this study, the linear range needed to calculate Papp in the C3-time profile was evaluated by a 3-compartment model. C3 was described by an equation with two steady states (C3=A3(1-e(-αt))+B3(1-e(-βt)), α>β), and by a simple approximate line (C3=A3-A3×αt) in the time range of 3/αtime, defined as the interception of the x axis, was described as 1/α. The rate constant α was affected by the membrane permeability clearance and intracellular unbound fraction, while β was affected only by the former. The linear range that was approximated in the present study was not uniformly defined within the time interval in which C3 remains at time range to evaluate Papp was 3/α

  17. Reliability of Circumplex Axes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micha Strack

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA procedure for computing the reliability of circumplex axes. The tau-equivalent CFA variance decomposition model estimates five variance components: general factor, axes, scale-specificity, block-specificity, and item-specificity. Only the axes variance component is used for reliability estimation. We apply the model to six circumplex types and 13 instruments assessing interpersonal and motivational constructs—Interpersonal Adjective List (IAL, Interpersonal Adjective Scales (revised; IAS-R, Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP, Impact Messages Inventory (IMI, Circumplex Scales of Interpersonal Values (CSIV, Support Action Scale Circumplex (SAS-C, Interaction Problems With Animals (IPI-A, Team Role Circle (TRC, Competing Values Leadership Instrument (CV-LI, Love Styles, Organizational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI, Customer Orientation Circle (COC, and System for Multi-Level Observation of Groups (behavioral adjectives; SYMLOG—in 17 German-speaking samples (29 subsamples, grouped by self-report, other report, and metaperception assessments. The general factor accounted for a proportion ranging from 1% to 48% of the item variance, the axes component for 2% to 30%; and scale specificity for 1% to 28%, respectively. Reliability estimates varied considerably from .13 to .92. An application of the Nunnally and Bernstein formula proposed by Markey, Markey, and Tinsley overestimated axes reliabilities in cases of large-scale specificities but otherwise works effectively. Contemporary circumplex evaluations such as Tracey’s RANDALL are sensitive to the ratio of the axes and scale-specificity components. In contrast, the proposed model isolates both components.

  18. Implications of home-range estimation in the management of red-cockaded woodpeckers in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathleen E. Franzreb

    2006-01-01

    I undertook a behavioral study to determine red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) home-range size at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA. In this location, because much of the timber was harvested in the late 1940s and early 1950s, the available habitat largely consisted of younger trees (e.g., less than 45 years old), not generally...

  19. Using Length of Stay to Control for Unobserved Heterogeneity When Estimating Treatment Effect on Hospital Costs with Observational Data: Issues of Reliability, Robustness, and Usefulness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Peter; Garrido, Melissa M; Cassel, J Brian; Morrison, R Sean; Normand, Charles

    2016-10-01

    To evaluate the sensitivity of treatment effect estimates when length of stay (LOS) is used to control for unobserved heterogeneity when estimating treatment effect on cost of hospital admission with observational data. We used data from a prospective cohort study on the impact of palliative care consultation teams (PCCTs) on direct cost of hospital care. Adult patients with an advanced cancer diagnosis admitted to five large medical and cancer centers in the United States between 2007 and 2011 were eligible for this study. Costs were modeled using generalized linear models with a gamma distribution and a log link. We compared variability in estimates of PCCT impact on hospitalization costs when LOS was used as a covariate, as a sample parameter, and as an outcome denominator. We used propensity scores to account for patient characteristics associated with both PCCT use and total direct hospitalization costs. We analyzed data from hospital cost databases, medical records, and questionnaires. Our propensity score weighted sample included 969 patients who were discharged alive. In analyses of hospitalization costs, treatment effect estimates are highly sensitive to methods that control for LOS, complicating interpretation. Both the magnitude and significance of results varied widely with the method of controlling for LOS. When we incorporated intervention timing into our analyses, results were robust to LOS-controls. Treatment effect estimates using LOS-controls are not only suboptimal in terms of reliability (given concerns over endogeneity and bias) and usefulness (given the need to validate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention using overall resource use for a sample defined at baseline) but also in terms of robustness (results depend on the approach taken, and there is little evidence to guide this choice). To derive results that minimize endogeneity concerns and maximize external validity, investigators should match and analyze treatment and comparison arms

  20. Estimating the daily global solar radiation spatial distribution from diurnal temperature ranges over the Tibetan Plateau in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Tao; Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Liu, Yujie

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Bristow–Campbell model was calibrated and validated over the Tibetan Plateau. ► Develop a simple method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation and get gridded information. ► The daily global solar radiation spatial distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated. - Abstract: Daily global solar radiation is fundamental to most ecological and biophysical processes because it plays a key role in the local and global energy budget. However, gridded information about the spatial distribution of solar radiation is limited. This study aims to parameterise the Bristow–Campbell model for the daily global solar radiation estimation in the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation. Observed daily solar radiation and diurnal temperature data from eleven stations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2010 were used to calibrate and validate the Bristow–Campbell radiation model. The extra-terrestrial radiation and clear sky atmospheric transmittance were calculated on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results show that the Bristow–Campbell model performs well after adjusting the parameters, the average Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r), Nash–Sutcliffe equation (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and root mean-square error (RMSE) of 11 stations are 0.85, 2.81 MJ m −2 day −1 , 0.3 and 0.77 respectively. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data were obtained using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and validated by the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) stations’ data. The spatial daily global solar radiation distribution pattern was estimated and analysed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell model) and meteorological interpolation model (PRISM). Based on the overall results, it can be concluded that a calibrated Bristow–Campbell performs well

  1. Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong

    1992-07-01

    This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

  2. The Effect of Parkinson's Disease on Time Estimation as a Function of Stimulus Duration Range and Modality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jared G.; Harper, David N.; Gittings, David; Abernethy, David

    2007-01-01

    The present research sought to investigate the role of the basal ganglia in timing of sub- and supra-second intervals via an examination of the ability of people with Parkinson's disease (PD) to make temporal judgments in two ranges, 100-500 ms, and 1-5 s. Eighteen non-demented medicated patients with PD were compared with 14 matched controls on a…

  3. Does Plan B work? Home range estimations from stored on board and transmitted data sets produced by GPS-telemetry in the Colombian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabrera, Jaime A; Molina, Eduardo; González, Tania; Armenteras, Dolors

    2016-12-01

    Telemetry based on Global Positioning Systems (GPS) makes possible to gather large quantities of information in a very fine scale and work with species that were impossible to study in the past. When working with GPS telemetry, the option of storing data on board could be more desirable than the sole satellite transmitted data, due to the increase in the amount of locations available for analysis. Nonetheless, the uncertainty in the retrieving of the collar unit makes satellite-transmitted technologies something to take into account. Therefore, differences between store-on-board (SoB) and satellite-transmitted (IT) data sets need to be considered. Differences between SoB and IT data collected from two lowland tapirs (Tapirus terrestris), were explored by means of the calculation of home range areas by three different methods: the Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP), the Fixed Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) and the Brownian Bridges (BB). Results showed that SoB and IT data sets for the same individual were similar, with fix ranging from 63 % to 85 % respectively, and 16 m to 17 m horizontal errors. Depending on the total number of locations available for each individual, the home ranges estimated showed differences between 2.7 % and 79.3 %, for the 50 % probability contour and between 9.9 % and 61.8 % for the 95 % probability contour. These differences imply variations in the spatial coincidence of the estimated home ranges. We concluded that the use of IT data is not a good option for the estimation of home range areas if the collar settings have not been designed specifically for this use. Nonetheless, geographical representations of the IT based estimators could be of great help to identify areas of use, besides its assistance to locate the collar for its retrieval at the end of the field season and as a proximate backup when collars disappear.

  4. Evaluation of soil metal bioavailability estimates using two plant species (L. perenne and T. aestivum) grown in a range of agricultural soils treated with biosolids and metal salts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, Amanda; McLaren, Ronald G.; Reichman, Suzanne M.; Speir, Thomas W.; Condron, Leo M.

    2011-01-01

    Few studies have quantified the accuracy of soil metal bioavailability assays using large datasets. A meta-analysis from experiments spanning 6 months to 13 years on 12 soil types, compared bioavailability estimate efficiencies for wheat and ryegrass. Treatments included biosolids ± metals, comparing total metal, Ca(NO 3 ) 2 , EDTA, soil solution, DGT and free ion activity. The best correlations between soil metal bioavailability and shoot concentrations were for Ni using Ca(NO 3 ) 2 (r 2 = 0.72) which also provided the best estimate of Zn bioavailability (r 2 = 0.64). DGT provided the best estimate of Cd bioavailability, accounting for 49% of shoot Cd concentrations. There was no reliable descriptor of Cu bioavailability, with less than 35% of shoot Cu concentrations defined. Thus interpretation of data obtained from many soil metal bioavailability assays is unreliable and probably flawed, and there is little justification to look beyond Ca(NO 3 ) 2 for Ni and Zn, and DGT for Cd. - Highlights: → A meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy of soil metal bioavailability assays. → DGT could explain 49% of shoot Cd concentration. → There is little justification to look beyond Ca(NO 3 ) 2 for Ni and Zn. - A meta-analysis of soil metal bioavailability estimates for 12 soil types concluded that there is little justification to look beyond Ca(NO 3 ) 2 for Ni and Zn, and DGT for Cd.

  5. Evaluation of soil metal bioavailability estimates using two plant species (L. perenne and T. aestivum) grown in a range of agricultural soils treated with biosolids and metal salts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Black, Amanda, E-mail: amanda.black@lincoln.ac.nz [Department of Soil and Physical Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Lincoln University, PO Box 84, Lincoln 7647, Christchurch (New Zealand); McLaren, Ronald G. [Department of Soil and Physical Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Lincoln University, PO Box 84, Lincoln 7647, Christchurch (New Zealand); Reichman, Suzanne M. [School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, RMIT University, GPO Box 2476, Melbourne 3001 (Australia); Speir, Thomas W. [Institute of Environmental Science and Research Ltd (ESR), PO Box 50348, Porirua 5240 (New Zealand); Condron, Leo M. [Department of Soil and Physical Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Lincoln University, PO Box 84, Lincoln 7647, Christchurch (New Zealand)

    2011-06-15

    Few studies have quantified the accuracy of soil metal bioavailability assays using large datasets. A meta-analysis from experiments spanning 6 months to 13 years on 12 soil types, compared bioavailability estimate efficiencies for wheat and ryegrass. Treatments included biosolids {+-} metals, comparing total metal, Ca(NO{sub 3}){sub 2}, EDTA, soil solution, DGT and free ion activity. The best correlations between soil metal bioavailability and shoot concentrations were for Ni using Ca(NO{sub 3}){sub 2} (r{sup 2} = 0.72) which also provided the best estimate of Zn bioavailability (r{sup 2} = 0.64). DGT provided the best estimate of Cd bioavailability, accounting for 49% of shoot Cd concentrations. There was no reliable descriptor of Cu bioavailability, with less than 35% of shoot Cu concentrations defined. Thus interpretation of data obtained from many soil metal bioavailability assays is unreliable and probably flawed, and there is little justification to look beyond Ca(NO{sub 3}){sub 2} for Ni and Zn, and DGT for Cd. - Highlights: > A meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy of soil metal bioavailability assays. > DGT could explain 49% of shoot Cd concentration. > There is little justification to look beyond Ca(NO{sub 3}){sub 2} for Ni and Zn. - A meta-analysis of soil metal bioavailability estimates for 12 soil types concluded that there is little justification to look beyond Ca(NO{sub 3}){sub 2} for Ni and Zn, and DGT for Cd.

  6. Apple latent spherical virus vectors for reliable and effective virus-induced gene silencing among a broad range of plants including tobacco, tomato, Arabidopsis thaliana, cucurbits, and legumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igarashi, Aki; Yamagata, Kousuke; Sugai, Tomokazu; Takahashi, Yukari; Sugawara, Emiko; Tamura, Akihiro; Yaegashi, Hajime; Yamagishi, Noriko; Takahashi, Tsubasa; Isogai, Masamichi; Takahashi, Hideki; Yoshikawa, Nobuyuki

    2009-01-01

    Apple latent spherical virus (ALSV) vectors were evaluated for virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) of endogenous genes among a broad range of plant species. ALSV vectors carrying partial sequences of a subunit of magnesium chelatase (SU) and phytoene desaturase (PDS) genes induced highly uniform knockout phenotypes typical of SU and PDS inhibition on model plants such as tobacco and Arabidopsis thaliana, and economically important crops such as tomato, legume, and cucurbit species. The silencing phenotypes persisted throughout plant growth in these plants. In addition, ALSV vectors could be successfully used to silence a meristem gene, proliferating cell nuclear antigen and disease resistant N gene in tobacco and RCY1 gene in A. thaliana. As ALSV infects most host plants symptomlessly and effectively induces stable VIGS for long periods, the ALSV vector is a valuable tool to determine the functions of interested genes among a broad range of plant species.

  7. Ultrasound estimates of muscle quality in older adults: reliability and comparison of Photoshop and ImageJ for the grayscale analysis of muscle echogenicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris-Love, Michael O; Seamon, Bryant A; Teixeira, Carla; Ismail, Catheeja

    2016-01-01

    Background. Quantitative diagnostic ultrasound imaging has been proposed as a method of estimating muscle quality using measures of echogenicity. The Rectangular Marquee Tool (RMT) and the Free Hand Tool (FHT) are two types of editing features used in Photoshop and ImageJ for determining a region of interest (ROI) within an ultrasound image. The primary objective of this study is to determine the intrarater and interrater reliability of Photoshop and ImageJ for the estimate of muscle tissue echogenicity in older adults via grayscale histogram analysis. The secondary objective is to compare the mean grayscale values obtained using both the RMT and FHT methods across both image analysis platforms. Methods. This cross-sectional observational study features 18 community-dwelling men (age = 61.5 ± 2.32 years). Longitudinal views of the rectus femoris were captured using B-mode ultrasound. The ROI for each scan was selected by 2 examiners using the RMT and FHT methods from each software program. Their reliability is assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and the standard error of the measurement (SEM). Measurement agreement for these values is depicted using Bland-Altman plots. A paired t-test is used to determine mean differences in echogenicity expressed as grayscale values using the RMT and FHT methods to select the post-image acquisition ROI. The degree of association among ROI selection methods and image analysis platforms is analyzed using the coefficient of determination (R (2)). Results. The raters demonstrated excellent intrarater and interrater reliability using the RMT and FHT methods across both platforms (lower bound 95% CI ICC = .97-.99, p Photoshop was .97 and 1.05 grayscale levels when using the RMT and FHT ROI selection methods, respectively. Comparatively, the SEM values were .72 and .81 grayscale levels, respectively, when using the RMT and FHT ROI selection methods in ImageJ. Uniform coefficients of determination (R (2) = .96

  8. Full-range stress–strain behaviour of contemporary pipeline steels: Part II. Estimation of model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hertelé, Stijn; De Waele, Wim; Denys, Rudi; Verstraete, Matthias

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary pipeline steels with a yield-to-tensile ratio above 0.80 often show two-stages of strain hardening, which cannot be simultaneously described by the standardized Ramberg–Osgood model. A companion paper (Part I) showed that the recently developed UGent model provides more accurate descriptions than the Ramberg–Osgood model, as it succeeds in describing both strain hardening stages. However, it may be challenging to obtain an optimal model fit in absence of full stress–strain data. This paper discusses on how to find suited parameter values for the UGent model, given a set of measurable tensile test characteristics. The proposed methodology shows good results for an extensive set of investigated experimental stress–strain curves. Next to some common tensile test characteristics, the 1.0% proof stress is needed. The authors therefore encourage the acquisition of this stress during tensile tests. - Highlights: ► An analytical procedure estimates UGent model parameters. ► The procedure requires a set of tensile test characteristics. ► The UGent model performs better than the Ramberg–Osgood model. ► Apart from common characteristics, the 1.0% proof stress is required. ► The authors encourage the acquisition of this 1.0% proof stress.

  9. Species contributions to single biodiversity values under-estimate whole community contribution to a wider range of values to society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiron, Matthew; Pärt, Tomas; Siriwardena, Gavin M; Whittingham, Mark J

    2018-05-03

    A major task for decision makers is deciding how to consider monetary, cultural and conservation values of biodiversity explicitly when planning sustainable land use. Thus, there is a great need to understand just what "valuing" biodiversity or species really means, e.g. regarding how many and which species are important in providing ecosystem services or other values. Constructing ecosystem-level indices, however, requires weighting the relative contribution of species to the different values. Using farmland birds, we illustrate how species contribute to different biodiversity values, namely utilitarian (pest seed predation potential), cultural (species occurrence in poetry), conservational (declines and rarity) and inherent (all species equal) value. Major contributions to each value are often made by a subset of the community and different species are important for different values, leading to no correlations or, in some cases, negative correlations between species' relative contributions to different values. Our results and methods using relative contributions of species to biodiversity values can aid decisions when weighing different values in policies and strategies for natural resource management. We conclude that acknowledging the importance of the range of biodiversity values that are apparent from different perspectives is critical if the full value of biodiversity to society is to be realised.

  10. A study of the normal interpedicular distance of the spine in Korean teenagers (Estimation of normal range by roentgenographic measurement)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Myung Uk

    1979-01-01

    The radiological measurement of the interpedicular disease using a routine antero-posterior view of the spine gives important clinical criteria in evaluation of the intraspinal tumor and stenosis of the spinal canal, and aids for diagnosis of the lesions. In 1934 Elsberg and Dyke reported values of interpedicular distance as determined on roentgenograms for spine of white adult, and in 1968 Song prepared normal values of interpedicular distance for Korean adult. The present investigation was undertaken to provide normal interpedicular distance of Korean teenagers. The author observed the antero-posterior films of the spine of 200 normal teenagers which were composed of 100 male and 100 female. The normal values of the interpedicular distance of Korean teenagers were obtained, as well as 90% tolerance range for clinical use. In this statistical analysis, there were noted significant differences between male and female, and each age groups. It was observed that average male measurement were consistently larger than female by about 1 mm and the growth of the spinal canal appeared to be continued.

  11. Reliable Function Approximation and Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-16

    compressed sensing results to a wide class of infinite -dimensional problems. We discuss four key application domains for the methods developed in this... infinite -dimensional problems. We discuss four key findings arising from this project, as related to uncertainty quantification, image processing, matrix...compressed sensing results to a wide class of infinite -dimensional problems. We discuss four key application domains for the methods developed in this project

  12. Secondary dentine as a sole parameter for age estimation: Comparison and reliability of qualitative and quantitative methods among North Western adult Indians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasbir Arora

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The indestructible nature of teeth against most of the environmental abuses makes its use in disaster victim identification (DVI. The present study has been undertaken to examine the reliability of Gustafson’s qualitative method and Kedici’s quantitative method of measuring secondary dentine for age estimation among North Western adult Indians. 196 (M = 85; F = 111 single rooted teeth were collected from the Department of Oral Health Sciences, PGIMER, Chandigarh. Ground sections were prepared and the amount of secondary dentine formed was scored qualitatively according to Gustafson’s (0–3 scoring system (method 1 and quantitatively following Kedici’s micrometric measurement method (method 2. Out of 196 teeth 180 samples (M = 80; F = 100 were found to be suitable for measuring secondary dentine following Kedici’s method. Absolute mean error of age was calculated by both methodologies. Results clearly showed that in pooled data, method 1 gave an error of ±10.4 years whereas method 2 exhibited an error of approximately ±13 years. A statistically significant difference was noted in absolute mean error of age between two methods of measuring secondary dentine for age estimation. Further, it was also revealed that teeth extracted for periodontal reasons severely decreased the accuracy of Kedici’s method however, the disease had no effect while estimating age by Gustafson’s method. No significant gender differences were noted in the absolute mean error of age by both methods which suggest that there is no need to separate data on the basis of gender.

  13. Estimation of the local and long-range contributions to particulate matter levels using continuous measurements in a single urban background site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamantopoulou, Marianna; Skyllakou, Ksakousti; Pandis, Spyros N.

    2016-06-01

    The Particulate Matter Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) algorithm is used together with PMCAMx, a regional chemical transport model, to develop a simple observation-based method (OBM) for the estimation of local and regional contributions of sources of primary and secondary pollutants in urban areas. We test the hypothesis that the minimum of the diurnal average concentration profile of the pollutant is a good estimate of the average contribution of long range transport levels. We use PMCAMx to generate "pseudo-observations" for four different European cities (Paris, London, Milan, and Dusseldorf) and PSAT to estimate the corresponding "true" local and regional contributions. The predictions of the proposed OBM are compared to the "true" values for different definitions of the source area. During winter, the estimates by the OBM for the local contributions to the concentrations of total PM2.5, primary pollutants, and sulfate are within 25% of the "true" contributions of the urban area sources. For secondary organic aerosol the OBM overestimates the importance of the local sources and it actually estimates the contributions of sources within 200 km from the receptor. During summer for primary pollutants and cities with low nearby emissions (ratio of emissions in an area extending 100 km from the city over local emissions lower than 10) the OBM estimates correspond to the city emissions within 25% or so. For cities with relatively high nearby emissions the OBM estimates correspond to emissions within 100 km from the receptor. For secondary PM2.5 components like sulfate and secondary organic aerosol the OBM's estimates correspond to sources within 200 km from the receptor. Finally, for total PM2.5 the OBM provides approximately the contribution of city emissions during the winter and the contribution of sources within 100 km from the receptor during the summer.

  14. Estimation of organic carbon deposition into forest ecosystems by determination of the spectral absorption of rainwater in range of ultraviolet radiation (SAC254)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartels, U.

    1988-01-01

    Organic compounds are mostly neglected within deposition measurement programs because their determination is expensive and complicated. A very simple and rapid estimation of total organic carbon (TOC) is possible by determination of the spectral absorption coefficient in the range of ultraviolet radiation at 254 nm wave-length (SAC 254 ): TOC (mg/1) = 0,5 SAC 254 (m −1 ) - 0,15 (author) [de

  15. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, John A.

    2016-03-21

    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  16. A hydrogen production experiment by the thermo-chemical and electrolytic hybrid hydrogen production in lower temperature range. System viability and preliminary thermal efficiency estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takai, Toshihide; Nakagiri, Toshio; Inagaki, Yoshiyuki

    2008-10-01

    A new experimental apparatus by the thermo-chemical and electrolytic Hybrid-Hydrogen production in Lower Temperature range (HHLT) was developed and hydrogen production experiment was performed to confirm the system operability. Hydrogen production efficiency was estimated and technical problems were clarified through the experimental results. Stable operation of the SO 3 electrolysis cell and the sulfur dioxide solution electrolysis cell were confirmed during experimental operation and any damage which would be affected solid operation was not detected under post operation inspection. To improve hydrogen production efficiency, it was found that the reduction of sulfuric acid circulation and the decrease in the cell voltage were key issues. (author)

  17. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  18. Mapping snow depth in complex alpine terrain with close range aerial imagery - estimating the spatial uncertainties of repeat autonomous aerial surveys over an active rock glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, Jason; Marcer, Marco; Bodin, Xavier; Brenning, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Snow depth mapping in open areas using close range aerial imagery is just one of the many cases where developments in structure-from-motion and multi-view-stereo (SfM-MVS) 3D reconstruction techniques have been applied for geosciences - and with good reason. Our ability to increase the spatial resolution and frequency of observations may allow us to improve our understanding of how snow depth distribution varies through space and time. However, to ensure accurate snow depth observations from close range sensing we must adequately characterize the uncertainty related to our measurement techniques. In this study, we explore the spatial uncertainties of snow elevation models for estimation of snow depth in a complex alpine terrain from close range aerial imagery. We accomplish this by conducting repeat autonomous aerial surveys over a snow-covered active-rock glacier located in the French Alps. The imagery obtained from each flight of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is used to create an individual digital elevation model (DEM) of the snow surface. As result, we obtain multiple DEMs of the snow surface for the same site. These DEMs are obtained from processing the imagery with the photogrammetry software Agisoft Photoscan. The elevation models are also georeferenced within Photoscan using the geotagged imagery from an onboard GNSS in combination with ground targets placed around the rock glacier, which have been surveyed with highly accurate RTK-GNSS equipment. The random error associated with multi-temporal DEMs of the snow surface is estimated from the repeat aerial survey data. The multiple flights are designed to follow the same flight path and altitude above the ground to simulate the optimal conditions of repeat survey of the site, and thus try to estimate the maximum precision associated with our snow-elevation measurement technique. The bias of the DEMs is assessed with RTK-GNSS survey observations of the snow surface elevation of the area on and surrounding

  19. Software reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bendell, A

    1986-01-01

    Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

  20. Estimating background denudation rates and delivery of landslide sediment from a time series of 10Be concentrations in landslide dominated basins in the southern Central Range of Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. Y.; Willett, S.; West, A. J.; Dadson, S. J.; Hovius, N.; Christl, M.; Shyu, J. B. H.

    2017-12-01

    The southern Central Range of Taiwan is located at a tectonic transition zone between an oceanic subduction zone and the arc-continent collision forming the Taiwan orogen. The rapidly evolving tectonic setting, tropical climate and frequent typhoons result in a complex uplift pattern, transient landscapes and extensive landslides. For this study, we obtained a series of 10Be concentrations over the last decade for 13 major drainage basins in the southern Central Range, bracketing the occurrence of a major typhoon, Morakot, which hit Taiwan in 2009 and triggered thousands of landslides. This time series allows us to simultaneously estimate the background erosion rate and assess the impact of Morakot-triggered landslides on 10Be concentrations. The time series of 10Be concentrations shows temporally lower concentrations of 10Be indicating dilution following the Morakot event in most basins. The diluted 10Be concentrations imply erosion rates up to three times higher than the lowest measured rates in the same basins. We constructed a simple sediment-mixing model parameterized by a sudden input of sediment supplied from landslides superimposed on a background denudation rate. This model was calibrated to measured landslide inventories and the series of 10Be data. We obtain a range of permissible background erosion rate and fraction of landslide sediments over time for each basin. The inferred background erosion rate reveals a northward increasing trend, reflecting the initial stage of the mountain building and indicating tectonic forcing is the main driver of the landscape evolution in the southern Central Range. The temporal changes in fraction of landslide sediments show that the available landslide material generated by the Morakot event is decreasing over time with a timescale of several years.

  1. Pedestrian headform testing: inferring performance at impact speeds and for headform masses not tested, and estimating average performance in a range of real-world conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, T Paul; Anderson, Robert W G; Searson, Daniel J

    2012-01-01

    Tests are routinely conducted where instrumented headforms are projected at the fronts of cars to assess pedestrian safety. Better information would be obtained by accounting for performance over the range of expected impact conditions in the field. Moreover, methods will be required to integrate the assessment of secondary safety performance with primary safety systems that reduce the speeds of impacts. Thus, we discuss how to estimate performance over a range of impact conditions from performance in one test and how this information can be combined with information on the probability of different impact speeds to provide a balanced assessment of pedestrian safety. Theoretical consideration is given to 2 distinct aspects to impact safety performance: the test impact severity (measured by the head injury criterion, HIC) at a speed at which a structure does not bottom out and the speed at which bottoming out occurs. Further considerations are given to an injury risk function, the distribution of impact speeds likely in the field, and the effect of primary safety systems on impact speeds. These are used to calculate curves that estimate injuriousness for combinations of test HIC, bottoming out speed, and alternative distributions of impact speeds. The injuriousness of a structure that may be struck by the head of a pedestrian depends not only on the result of the impact test but also the bottoming out speed and the distribution of impact speeds. Example calculations indicate that the relationship between the test HIC and injuriousness extends over a larger range than is presently used by the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP), that bottoming out at speeds only slightly higher than the test speed can significantly increase the injuriousness of an impact location and that effective primary safety systems that reduce impact speeds significantly modify the relationship between the test HIC and injuriousness. Present testing regimes do not take fully into

  2. Ionization Energies, Electron Affinities, and Polarization Energies of Organic Molecular Crystals: Quantitative Estimations from a Polarizable Continuum Model (PCM)–Tuned Range-Separated Density Functional Approach

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Haitao

    2016-05-16

    We propose a new methodology for the first-principles description of the electronic properties relevant for charge transport in organic molecular crystals. This methodology, which is based on the combination of a non-empirical, optimally tuned range-separated hybrid functional with the polarizable continuum model, is applied to a series of eight representative molecular semiconductor crystals. We show that it provides ionization energies, electron affinities, and transport gaps in very good agreement with experimental values as well as with the results of many-body perturbation theory within the GW approximation at a fraction of the computational costs. Hence, this approach represents an easily applicable and computationally efficient tool to estimate the gas-to-crystal-phase shifts of the frontier-orbital quasiparticle energies in organic electronic materials.

  3. Short-range spatial variability of soil δ15N natural abundance – effects on symbiotic N2-fixation estimates in pea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holdensen, Lars; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Jensen, Erik Steen

    2007-01-01

    abundance in spring barley and N2-fixing pea was measured within the 0.15-4 m scale at flowering and at maturity. The short-range spatial variability of soil δ15N natural abundance and symbiotic nitrogen fixation were high at both growth stages. Along a 4-m row, the δ15N natural abundance in barley......-abundance are that estimates of symbiotic N2-fixation can be obtained from the natural abundance method if at least half a square meter of crop and reference plants is sampled for the isotopic analysis. In fields with small amounts of representative reference crops (weeds) it might be necessary to sow in reference crop...

  4. A GIS-based assessment of the suitability of SCIAMACHY satellite sensor measurements for estimating reliable CO concentrations in a low-latitude climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagbeja, Mofoluso A; Hill, Jennifer L; Chatterton, Tim J; Longhurst, James W S

    2015-02-01

    An assessment of the reliability of the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) satellite sensor measurements to interpolate tropospheric concentrations of carbon monoxide considering the low-latitude climate of the Niger Delta region in Nigeria was conducted. Monthly SCIAMACHY carbon monoxide (CO) column measurements from January 2,003 to December 2005 were interpolated using ordinary kriging technique. The spatio-temporal variations observed in the reliability were based on proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, seasonal variations in the intensities of rainfall and relative humidity, the presence of dust particles from the Sahara desert, industrialization in Southwest Nigeria and biomass burning during the dry season in Northern Nigeria. Spatial reliabilities of 74 and 42 % are observed for the inland and coastal areas, respectively. Temporally, average reliability of 61 and 55 % occur during the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Reliability in the inland and coastal areas was 72 and 38 % during the wet season, and 75 and 46 % during the dry season, respectively. Based on the results, the WFM-DOAS SCIAMACHY CO data product used for this study is therefore relevant in the assessment of CO concentrations in developing countries within the low latitudes that could not afford monitoring infrastructure due to the required high costs. Although the SCIAMACHY sensor is no longer available, it provided cost-effective, reliable and accessible data that could support air quality assessment in developing countries.

  5. Circuit design for reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson

    2015-01-01

    This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units.  The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.

  6. The rating reliability calculator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon David J

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

  7. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1987-01-01

    Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

  8. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  9. Combining Cystatin C and Creatinine Yields a Reliable Glomerular Filtration Rate Estimation in Older Adults in Contrast to β-Trace Protein and β2-Microglobulin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Karin; Pihlsgård, Mats; Elmståhl, Sölve; Legrand, Helen; Nyman, Ulf; Christensson, Anders

    2017-01-01

    The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is the most important measure of kidney function and chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aims to validate commonly used equations for estimated GFR (eGFR) based on creatinine (cr), cystatin C (cys), β-trace protein (BTP), and β2-microglobulin (B2M) in older adults. We conducted a validation study with 126 participants aged between 72 and 98 with a mean measured GFR (mGFR) by iohexol clearance of 54 mL/min/1.73 m2. The eGFR equations (CKD-Epidemiology collaboration [CKD-EPI], Berlin Initiative Study [BIS], Full Age Spectrum [FAS], Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD]cr, Caucasian-Asian-Pediatric-Adult [CAPA]cys, Lund-Malmö Revised [LM-REV]cr, and MEAN-LM-CAPAcr-cys), were assessed in terms of bias (median difference: eGFR-mGFR), precision (interquartile range of the differences), and accuracy (P30: percentage of estimates ±30% of mGFR). The equations were compared to a benchmark equation: CKD-EPIcr-cys. All cystatin C-based equations underestimated the GFR compared to mGFR, whereas bias was mixed for the equations based only on creatinine. Accuracy was the highest for CKD-EPIcr-cys (98%) and lowest for MDRD (82%). Below mGFR 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 only equations incorporating cystatin C reached P30 accuracy >90%. CKD-EPIcr-cys was not significantly more accurate than the other cystatin C-based equations. In contrast, CKD-EPIcr-cys was significantly more accurate than all creatinine-based equations except LM-REVcr. This study confirms that it is reasonable to use equations incorporating cystatin C and creatinine in older patients across a wide spectrum of GFR. However, the results call into question the use of creatinine alone below mGFR 45 mL/min/1.73 m2. B2M and BTP do not demonstrate additional value in eGFR determination in older adults. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. The Norwegian Emission Inventory 2012. Documentation of methodologies for estimating emissions of greenhouse gases and long-range transboundary air pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandmo, Trond (ed.)

    2012-07-01

    The Norwegian emission inventory is a joint undertaking between the Climate and Pollution Agency1 and Statistics Norway. Statistics Norway is responsible for the collection and development of activity data, and emission figures are derived from models operated by Statistics Norway. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the emission factors, for providing data from specific industries and sources and for considering the quality, and assuring necessary updating, of emission models like, e.g., the road traffic model and calculation of methane emissions from landfills. Emission data are used for a range of national applications and for international reporting. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the Norwegian reporting to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to United Nations Economic Commission Europe (UN-ECE). This report documents the methodologies used in the Norwegian emission inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG), acidifying pollutants, heavy metals (HM) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The documentation will also serve as a part of the National Inventory Report submitted by Norway to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as documentation of the reported emissions to UNECE for the pollutants restricted by CLRTAP (Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution). LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry) is not considered in this report, see the National Inventory Report (Climate and Pollution Agency 2012) for documentation on this topic.This report replaces the previous documentation of the emission model (Sandmo 2011), and is the latest annually updated version of a report edited by Britta Hoem in 2005. The most important changes since last year's documentation are: Minor NOx emissions from production of rock wool, which previously not have been estimated, have been included, Some factors for estimation of N2O from agriculture have been altered

  11. The Norwegian Emission Inventory 2012. Documentation of methodologies for estimating emissions of greenhouse gases and long-range transboundary air pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandmo, Trond [ed.

    2012-07-01

    The Norwegian emission inventory is a joint undertaking between the Climate and Pollution Agency1 and Statistics Norway. Statistics Norway is responsible for the collection and development of activity data, and emission figures are derived from models operated by Statistics Norway. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the emission factors, for providing data from specific industries and sources and for considering the quality, and assuring necessary updating, of emission models like, e.g., the road traffic model and calculation of methane emissions from landfills. Emission data are used for a range of national applications and for international reporting. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the Norwegian reporting to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to United Nations Economic Commission Europe (UN-ECE). This report documents the methodologies used in the Norwegian emission inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG), acidifying pollutants, heavy metals (HM) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The documentation will also serve as a part of the National Inventory Report submitted by Norway to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as documentation of the reported emissions to UNECE for the pollutants restricted by CLRTAP (Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution). LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry) is not considered in this report, see the National Inventory Report (Climate and Pollution Agency 2012) for documentation on this topic.This report replaces the previous documentation of the emission model (Sandmo 2011), and is the latest annually updated version of a report edited by Britta Hoem in 2005. The most important changes since last year's documentation are: Minor NOx emissions from production of rock wool, which previously not have been estimated, have been included, Some factors for estimation of N2O from agriculture have been altered, The

  12. Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  13. Method to estimate the effective temperatures of late-type giants using line-depth ratios in the wavelength range 0.97-1.32 μm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniguchi, Daisuke; Matsunaga, Noriyuki; Kobayashi, Naoto; Fukue, Kei; Hamano, Satoshi; Ikeda, Yuji; Kawakita, Hideyo; Kondo, Sohei; Sameshima, Hiroaki; Yasui, Chikako

    2018-02-01

    The effective temperature, one of the most fundamental atmospheric parameters of a star, can be estimated using various methods; here, we focus on a method using line-depth ratios (LDRs). This method combines low- and high-excitation lines and makes use of relations between LDRs of these line pairs and the effective temperature. It has an advantage, for example, of being minimally affected by interstellar reddening, which changes stellar colours. We report 81 relations between LDRs and effective temperature established with high-resolution, λ/Δλ ∼ 28 000, spectra of nine G- to M-type giants in the Y and J bands. Our analysis gives the first comprehensive set of LDR relations for this wavelength range. The combination of all these relations can be used to determine the effective temperatures of stars that have 3700 < Teff < 5400 K and -0.5 < [Fe/H] < +0.3 dex, to a precision of ±10 K in the best cases.

  14. Estimated burden of cardiovascular disease and value-based price range for evolocumab in a high-risk, secondary-prevention population in the US payer context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Peter P; Danese, Mark; Villa, Guillermo; Qian, Yi; Beaubrun, Anne; Lira, Armando; Jansen, Jeroen P

    2017-06-01

    To estimate real-world cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden and value-based price range of evolocumab for a US-context, high-risk, secondary-prevention population. Burden of CVD was assessed using the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in order to capture complete CV burden including CV mortality. Patients on standard of care (SOC; high-intensity statins) in CPRD were selected based on eligibility criteria of FOURIER, a phase 3 CV outcomes trial of evolocumab, and categorized into four cohorts: high-risk prevalent atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) cohort (n = 1448), acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (n = 602), ischemic stroke (IS) (n = 151), and heart failure (HF) (n = 291) incident cohorts. The value-based price range for evolocumab was assessed using a previously published economic model. The model incorporated CPRD CV event rates and considered CV event reduction rate ratios per 1 mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) from a meta-analysis of statin trials by the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists Collaboration (CTTC), i.e. CTTC relationship. Multiple-event rates of composite CV events (ACS, IS, or coronary revascularization) per 100 patient-years were 12.3 for the high-risk prevalent ASCVD cohort, and 25.7, 13.3, and 23.3, respectively, for incident ACS, IS, and HF cohorts. Approximately one-half (42%) of the high-risk ASCVD patients with a new CV event during follow-up had a subsequent CV event. Combining these real-world event rates and the CTTC relationship in the economic model, the value-based price range (credible interval) under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/quality-adjusted life-year gained for evolocumab was $11,990 ($9,341-$14,833) to $16,856 ($12,903-$20,678) in ASCVD patients with baseline LDL-C levels ≥70 mg/dL and ≥100 mg/dL, respectively. Real-world CVD burden is substantial. Using the observed CVD burden in CPRD and the CTTC relationship, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed

  15. Reliability Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Lazzaroni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

  16. Reliability training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

    1992-01-01

    Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

  17. The Norwegian Emission Inventory 2010. Documentation of methodologies for estimating emissions of greenhouse gases and long-range transboundary air pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandmo, Trond (ed.)

    2010-06-15

    The Norwegian emission inventory is a joint undertaking between the Climate and Pollution Agency (Klif) and Statistics Norway. Statistics Norway is responsible for the collection and development of activity data, and emission figures are derived from models operated by Statistics Norway. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the emission factors, for providing data from specific industries and sources and for considering the quality, and assuring necessary updating, of emissions models like e.g. the road traffic model and calculation of methane emissions from landfills. Emission data are used for a range of national applications and for international reporting. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the Norwegian reporting to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to United Nations Economic Commission Europe (UN-ECE). This report documents the methodologies used in the Norwegian emission inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG), acidifying pollutants, heavy metals (HM) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The documentation will also serve as a part of the National Inventory Report submitted by Norway to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as documentation of the reported emissions to UNECE for the pollutants restricted by CLRTAP (Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution). LULUCF is not considered in this report, see the National Inventory Report (Climate and Pollution Agency 2010) for documentation on this topic. This report replaces the previous documentation of the emission model, (Sandmo 2009), and is the latest annually updated version of a report edited by Britta Hoem in 2005. The most important changes since last year's documentation are: Emissions of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O from well testing of crude oil off shore have been included - these have previously not been estimated Emissions of CH{sub 4} from enteric fermentation have increased for the whole

  18. 用Delta法估计多维测验合成信度的置信区间%Estimating the Confidence Interval of Composite Reliability of a Multidimensional Test With the Delta Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶宝娟; 温忠麟

    2012-01-01

    Reliability is very important in evaluating the quality of a test. Based on the confirmatory factor analysis, composite reliabili- ty is a good index to estimate the test reliability for general applications. As is well known, point estimate contains limited information a- bout a population parameter and cannot indicate how far it can be from the population parameter. The confidence interval of the parame- ter can provide more information. In evaluating the quality of a test, the confidence interval of composite reliability has received atten- tion in recent years. There are three approaches to estimating the confidence interval of composite reliability of an unidimensional test: the Bootstrap method, the Delta method, and the direct use of the standard error of a software output (e. g. , LISREL). The Bootstrap method pro- vides empirical results of the standard error, and is the most credible method. But it needs data simulation techniques, and its computa- tion process is rather complex. The Delta method computes the standard error of composite reliability by approximate calculation. It is simpler than the Bootstrap method. The LISREL software can directly prompt the standard error, and it is the easiest among the three methods. By simulation study, it had been found that the interval estimates obtained by the Delta method and the Bootstrap method were almost identical, whereas the results obtained by LISREL and by the Bootstrap method were substantially different ( Ye & Wen, 2011 ). The Delta method is recommended when the confidence interval of composite reliability of a unidimensional test is estimated, because the Delta method is simpler than the Bootstrap method. There was little research about how to compute the confidence interval of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. We de- duced a formula by using the Delta method for computing the standard error of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. Based on the standard error, the

  19. Examining the reliability of ADAS-Cog change scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grochowalski, Joseph H; Liu, Ying; Siedlecki, Karen L

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate and examine ways to improve the reliability of change scores on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale, Cognitive Subtest (ADAS-Cog). The sample, provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, included individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (n = 153) and individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (n = 352). All participants were administered the ADAS-Cog at baseline and 1 year, and change scores were calculated as the difference in scores over the 1-year period. Three types of change score reliabilities were estimated using multivariate generalizability. Two methods to increase change score reliability were evaluated: reweighting the subtests of the scale and adding more subtests. Reliability of ADAS-Cog change scores over 1 year was low for both the AD sample (ranging from .53 to .64) and the MCI sample (.39 to .61). Reweighting the change scores from the AD sample improved reliability (.68 to .76), but lengthening provided no useful improvement for either sample. The MCI change scores had low reliability, even with reweighting and adding additional subtests. The ADAS-Cog scores had low reliability for measuring change. Researchers using the ADAS-Cog should estimate and report reliability for their use of the change scores. The ADAS-Cog change scores are not recommended for assessment of meaningful clinical change.

  20. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  1. Parameter Estimation of a Reliability Model of Demand-Caused and Standby-Related Failures of Safety Components Exposed to Degradation by Demand Stress and Ageing That Undergo Imperfect Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Martorell

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One can find many reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM models proposed in the literature. However, such models become more complex day after day, as there is an attempt to capture equipment performance in a more realistic way, such as, explicitly addressing the effect of component ageing and degradation, surveillance activities, and corrective and preventive maintenance policies. Then, there is a need to fit the best model to real data by estimating the model parameters using an appropriate tool. This problem is not easy to solve in some cases since the number of parameters is large and the available data is scarce. This paper considers two main failure models commonly adopted to represent the probability of failure on demand (PFD of safety equipment: (1 by demand-caused and (2 standby-related failures. It proposes a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE approach for parameter estimation of a reliability model of demand-caused and standby-related failures of safety components exposed to degradation by demand stress and ageing that undergo imperfect maintenance. The case study considers real failure, test, and maintenance data for a typical motor-operated valve in a nuclear power plant. The results of the parameters estimation and the adoption of the best model are discussed.

  2. Systems reliability/structural reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)

  3. The Reliability and Validity of Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory Scores in Academically Talented Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worrell, Frank C.; Mello, Zena R.

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors examined the reliability, structural validity, and concurrent validity of Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI) scores in a group of 815 academically talented adolescents. Reliability estimates of the purported factors' scores were in the low to moderate range. Exploratory factor analysis supported a five-factor…

  4. The Impact of Uncertainties in African Biomass Burning Emission Estimates on Modeling Global Air Quality, Long Range Transport and Tropospheric Chemical Lifetimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido R. van der Werf

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The chemical composition of the troposphere in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH is significantly influenced by gaseous emissions released from African biomass burning (BB. Here we investigate how various emission estimates given in bottom-up BB inventories (GFEDv2, GFEDv3, AMMABB affect simulations of global tropospheric composition using the TM4 chemistry transport model. The application of various model parameterizations for introducing such emissions is also investigated. There are perturbations in near-surface ozone (O3 and carbon monoxide (CO of ~60–90% in the tropics and ~5–10% in the SH between different inventories. Increasing the update frequency of the temporal distribution to eight days generally results in decreases of between ~5 and 10% in near-surface mixing ratios throughout the tropics, which is larger than the influence of increasing the injection heights at which BB emissions are introduced. There are also associated differences in the long range transport of pollutants throughout the SH, where the composition of the free troposphere in the SH is sensitive to the chosen BB inventory. Analysis of the chemical budget terms reveals that the influence of increasing the tropospheric CO burden due to BB on oxidative capacity of the troposphere is mitigated by the associated increase in NOx emissions (and thus O3 with the variations in the CO/N ratio between inventories being low. For all inventories there is a decrease in the tropospheric chemical lifetime of methane of between 0.4 and 0.8% regardless of the CO emitted from African BB. This has implications for assessing the effect of inter-annual variability in BB on the annual growth rate of methane.

  5. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubb, H.

    1992-01-01

    This book resulted from the activity of Task Force 4.2 - 'Human Reliability'. This group was established on February 27th, 1986, at the plenary meeting of the Technical Reliability Committee of VDI, within the framework of the joint committee of VDI on industrial systems technology - GIS. It is composed of representatives of industry, representatives of research institutes, of technical control boards and universities, whose job it is to study how man fits into the technical side of the world of work and to optimize this interaction. In a total of 17 sessions, information from the part of ergonomy dealing with human reliability in using technical systems at work was exchanged, and different methods for its evaluation were examined and analyzed. The outcome of this work was systematized and compiled in this book. (orig.) [de

  6. On the reliability of a simple method for scoring phenotypes to estimate heritability: A case study with pupal color in Heliconius erato phyllis , Fabricius 1775 (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Andrejew Ferreira

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, two methods for assessing the degree of melanization of pupal exuviae from the butterfly Heliconius erato phyllis , Fabricius 1775 (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Heliconiini are compared. In the first method, which was qualitative, the exuviae were classified by scoring the degree of melanization, whereas in the second method, which was quantitative, the exuviae were classified by optical density followed by analysis with appropriate software. The heritability (h 2 of the degree of melanization was estimated by regression and analysis of variance. The estimates of h 2 were similar with both methods, indicating that the qualitative method could be particularly suitable for field work. The low estimates obtained for heritability may have resulted from the small sample size ( n = 7-18 broods, including the parents or from the allocation-priority hypothesis in which pupal color would be a lower priority trait compared to morphological traits and adequate larval development.

  7. Stochastic Modeling of Long-Term and Extreme Value Estimation of Wind and Sea Conditions for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Wave energy power plants are expected to become one of the major future contribution to the sustainable electricity production. Optimal design of wave energy power plants is associated with modeling of physical, statistical, measurement and model uncertainties. This paper presents stochastic models...... for the significant wave height, the mean zero-crossing wave period and the wind speed for long-term and extreme estimations. The long-term estimation focuses on annual statistical distributions, the inter-annual variation of distribution parameters and the statistical uncertainty due to limited amount of data...

  8. Fatigue damage estimation in non-linear systems using a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    For non-linear systems the estimation of fatigue damage under stochastic loadings can be rather time-consuming. Usually Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is applied, but the coefficient-of-variation (COV) can be large if only a small set of simulations can be done due to otherwise excessive CPU time...

  9. Approach to reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.; Bourne, A.J.

    1975-01-01

    Experience has shown that reliability assessments can play an important role in the early design and subsequent operation of technological systems where reliability is at a premium. The approaches to and techniques for such assessments, which have been outlined in the paper, have been successfully applied in variety of applications ranging from individual equipments to large and complex systems. The general approach involves the logical and systematic establishment of the purpose, performance requirements and reliability criteria of systems. This is followed by an appraisal of likely system achievment based on the understanding of different types of variational behavior. A fundamental reliability model emerges from the correlation between the appropriate Q and H functions for performance requirement and achievement. This model may cover the complete spectrum of performance behavior in all the system dimensions

  10. An efficient reliable method to estimate the vaporization enthalpy of pure substances according to the normal boiling temperature and critical properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Mehmandoust

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The heat of vaporization of a pure substance at its normal boiling temperature is a very important property in many chemical processes. In this work, a new empirical method was developed to predict vaporization enthalpy of pure substances. This equation is a function of normal boiling temperature, critical temperature, and critical pressure. The presented model is simple to use and provides an improvement over the existing equations for 452 pure substances in wide boiling range. The results showed that the proposed correlation is more accurate than the literature methods for pure substances in a wide boiling range (20.3–722 K.

  11. An efficient reliable method to estimate the vaporization enthalpy of pure substances according to the normal boiling temperature and critical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmandoust, Babak; Sanjari, Ehsan; Vatani, Mostafa

    2014-03-01

    The heat of vaporization of a pure substance at its normal boiling temperature is a very important property in many chemical processes. In this work, a new empirical method was developed to predict vaporization enthalpy of pure substances. This equation is a function of normal boiling temperature, critical temperature, and critical pressure. The presented model is simple to use and provides an improvement over the existing equations for 452 pure substances in wide boiling range. The results showed that the proposed correlation is more accurate than the literature methods for pure substances in a wide boiling range (20.3-722 K).

  12. Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2018-03-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

  13. Efficacy of antemortem rectal biopsies to diagnose and estimate prevalence of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is the naturally occurring transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) of captive and free ranging cervid ruminants. Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) are a free-ranging species of large cervid with a habitat that includes large US national parks. Minimally ...

  14. Redefining reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, S.L.

    1995-01-01

    Want to buy some reliability? The question would have been unthinkable in some markets served by the natural gas business even a few years ago, but in the new gas marketplace, industrial, commercial and even some residential customers have the opportunity to choose from among an array of options about the kind of natural gas service they need--and are willing to pay for. The complexities of this brave new world of restructuring and competition have sent the industry scrambling to find ways to educate and inform its customers about the increased responsibility they will have in determining the level of gas reliability they choose. This article discusses the new options and the new responsibilities of customers, the needed for continuous education, and MidAmerican Energy Company's experiment in direct marketing of natural gas

  15. An efficient reliable method to estimate the vaporization enthalpy of pure substances according to the normal boiling temperature and critical properties

    OpenAIRE

    Mehmandoust, Babak; Sanjari, Ehsan; Vatani, Mostafa

    2014-01-01

    The heat of vaporization of a pure substance at its normal boiling temperature is a very important property in many chemical processes. In this work, a new empirical method was developed to predict vaporization enthalpy of pure substances. This equation is a function of normal boiling temperature, critical temperature, and critical pressure. The presented model is simple to use and provides an improvement over the existing equations for 452 pure substances in wide boiling range. The results s...

  16. On the Reliability of Optimization Results for Trigeneration Systems in Buildings, in the Presence of Price Uncertainties and Erroneous Load Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Piacentino

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cogeneration and trigeneration plants are widely recognized as promising technologies for increasing energy efficiency in buildings. However, their overall potential is scarcely exploited, due to the difficulties in achieving economic viability and the risk of investment related to uncertainties in future energy loads and prices. Several stochastic optimization models have been proposed in the literature to account for uncertainties, but these instruments share in a common reliance on user-defined probability functions for each stochastic parameter. Being such functions hard to predict, in this paper an analysis of the influence of erroneous estimation of the uncertain energy loads and prices on the optimal plant design and operation is proposed. With reference to a hotel building, a number of realistic scenarios is developed, exploring all the most frequent errors occurring in the estimation of energy loads and prices. Then, profit-oriented optimizations are performed for the examined scenarios, by means of a deterministic mixed integer linear programming algorithm. From a comparison between the achieved results, it emerges that: (i the plant profitability is prevalently influenced by the average “spark-spread” (i.e., ratio between electricity and fuel price and, secondarily, from the shape of the daily price profiles; (ii the “optimal sizes” of the main components are scarcely influenced by the daily load profiles, while they are more strictly related with the average “power to heat” and “power to cooling” ratios of the building.

  17. Measures of differences in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doksum, K.A.

    1975-01-01

    Measures of differences in reliability of two systems are considered in the scale model, location-scale model, and a nonparametric model. In each model, estimates and confidence intervals are given and some of their properties discussed

  18. Development of reliable pavement models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    The current report proposes a framework for estimating the reliability of a given pavement structure as analyzed by : the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). The methodology proposes using a previously fit : response surface, in plac...

  19. Assessment of the lumbo-pelvic-hip complex mobility with the Trunk-Pelvis-Hip Angle test: intraobserver reliability and differences in ranges of motion between girls with idiopathic scoliosis and their healthy counterparts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stępień Agnieszka

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Trunk-Pelvis-Hip Angle (TPHA test is used for assessing the mobility of lumbo-pelvic-hip complex. The aim of the research was to assess the intraobserver reliability of the TPHA test in girls with and without idiopathic scoliosis and to compare the test values obtained by the girls in both groups.

  20. Ionization Energies, Electron Affinities, and Polarization Energies of Organic Molecular Crystals: Quantitative Estimations from a Polarizable Continuum Model (PCM)–Tuned Range-Separated Density Functional Approach

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Haitao; Ryno, Sean; Zhong, Cheng; Ravva, Mahesh Kumar; Sun, Zhenrong; Kö rzdö rfer, Thomas; Bredas, Jean-Luc

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for the first-principles description of the electronic properties relevant for charge transport in organic molecular crystals. This methodology, which is based on the combination of a non-empirical, optimally tuned range

  1. Preliminary data used to assess the accuracy of estimating female white-tailed deer diel birthing-season home ranges using only daytime locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber-Meyer, Shannon M.; Mech, L. David

    2014-01-01

    Because many white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) home-range and habitat-use studies rely only on daytime radio-tracking data, we were interested in whether diurnal data sufficiently represented diel home ranges. We analyzed home-range and core-use size and overlap of 8 adult-female Global-Positioning-System-collared deer during May and June 2001 and 2002 in the Superior National Forest, Minnesota, USA. We used 2 traditional means of analysis: minimum-convex polygons (MCP) and fixed kernels (95% FK, home range and 50% FK, core use) and two methods to partition day and night location data: (1) daytime = 0800-2000 h versus nighttime = 2000-0800 h and (2) sunup versus sundown. We found no statistical difference in size of home-range and core-use areas across day and night comparisons; however, in terms of spatial overlap, approximately 30% of night-range areas on average were not accounted for using daytime locations, with even greater differences between core-use areas (on average approximately 50%). We conclude that diurnal data do not adequately describe diel adult-female-deer, May-June home-ranges due to differences in spatial overlap (location). We suggest research to determine (1) if our findings hold in other circumstances (e.g., exclusive of the parturition period, other age classes, etc.), (2) if our conclusions generalize under other conditions (e.g., across deer range, varying seasons, etc.), (3) if habitat-use conclusions are affected by the incomplete overlap between diurnal and diel data, (4) how many nocturnal locations must be included to generate sufficient overlap, and (5) the influence of using other kernel sizes (e.g., 75%, 90%).

  2. Chlorophyll-a concentration estimation with three bio-optical algorithms: correction for the low concentration range for the Yiam Reservoir, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bio-optical algorithms have been applied to monitor water quality in surface water systems. Empirical algorithms, such as Ritchie (2008), Gons (2008), and Gilerson (2010), have been applied to estimate the chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations. However, the performance of each algorithm severely degr...

  3. SU-E-T-598: Parametric Equation for Quick and Reliable Estimate of Stray Neutron Doses in Proton Therapy and Application for Intracranial Tumor Treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfrate, A; Farah, J; Sayah, R; Clairand, I [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-roses (France); De Marzi, L; Delacroix, S [Institut Curie Centre de Protontherapie d Orsay (CPO), Orsay (France); Herault, J [Centre Antoine Lacassagne (CAL) Cyclotron biomedical, Nice (France); Lee, C [National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD (United States); Bolch, W [Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Development of a parametric equation suitable for a daily use in routine clinic to provide estimates of stray neutron doses in proton therapy. Methods: Monte Carlo (MC) calculations using the UF-NCI 1-year-old phantom were exercised to determine the variation of stray neutron doses as a function of irradiation parameters while performing intracranial treatments. This was done by individually changing the proton beam energy, modulation width, collimator aperture and thickness, compensator thickness and the air gap size while their impact on neutron doses were put into a single equation. The variation of neutron doses with distance from the target volume was also included in it. Then, a first step consisted in establishing the fitting coefficients by using 221 learning data which were neutron absorbed doses obtained with MC simulations while a second step consisted in validating the final equation. Results: The variation of stray neutron doses with irradiation parameters were fitted with linear, polynomial, etc. model while a power-law model was used to fit the variation of stray neutron doses with the distance from the target volume. The parametric equation fitted well MC simulations while establishing fitting coefficients as the discrepancies on the estimate of neutron absorbed doses were within 10%. The discrepancy can reach ∼25% for the bladder, the farthest organ from the target volume. Finally, the validation showed results in compliance with MC calculations since the discrepancies were also within 10% for head-and-neck and thoracic organs while they can reach ∼25%, again for pelvic organs. Conclusion: The parametric equation presents promising results and will be validated for other target sites as well as other facilities to go towards a universal method.

  4. Estimation of remote effects in blood animals after combination action of external acute gamma-radiation and EHF-range radiowave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chudakova, O.V.; Nikolaevich, L.N.

    2004-01-01

    In work the experimental data on study of influence combination action of external acute gamma-radiation and EMR SHF-range on hematological status of animals. It is revealed the stimulating effect of action of EMR on irradiated organism. (Authors)

  5. Range-Wide Genetic Analysis of Little Brown Bat (Myotis lucifugus Populations: Estimating the Risk of Spread of White-Nose Syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarten J Vonhof

    Full Text Available The little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus is one of the most widespread bat species in North America and is experiencing severe population declines because of an emerging fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS. To manage and conserve this species effectively it is important to understand patterns of gene flow and population connectivity to identify possible barriers to disease transmission. However, little is known about the population genetic structure of little brown bats, and to date, no studies have investigated population structure across their entire range. We examined mitochondrial DNA and nuclear microsatellites in 637 little brown bats (including all currently recognized subspecific lineages from 29 locations across North America, to assess levels of genetic variation and population differentiation across the range of the species, including areas affected by WNS and those currently unaffected. We identified considerable spatial variation in patterns of female dispersal and significant genetic variation between populations in eastern versus western portions of the range. Overall levels of nuclear genetic differentiation were low, and there is no evidence for any major barriers to gene flow across their range. However, patterns of mtDNA differentiation are highly variable, with high ΦST values between most sample pairs (including between all western samples, between western and eastern samples, and between some eastern samples, while low mitochondrial differentiation was observed within two groups of samples found in central and eastern regions of North America. Furthermore, the Alaskan population was highly differentiated from all others, and western populations were characterized by isolation by distance while eastern populations were not. These data raise the possibility that the current patterns of spread of WNS observed in eastern North America may not apply to the entire range and that there may be broad-scale spatial variation in

  6. Determination of the influence of dispersion pattern of pesticide-resistant individuals on the reliability of resistance estimates using different sampling plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, R; Worner, S P; Chapman, R B

    2012-10-01

    Pesticide resistance monitoring includes resistance detection and subsequent documentation/ measurement. Resistance detection would require at least one (≥1) resistant individual(s) to be present in a sample to initiate management strategies. Resistance documentation, on the other hand, would attempt to get an estimate of the entire population (≥90%) of the resistant individuals. A computer simulation model was used to compare the efficiency of simple random and systematic sampling plans to detect resistant individuals and to document their frequencies when the resistant individuals were randomly or patchily distributed. A patchy dispersion pattern of resistant individuals influenced the sampling efficiency of systematic sampling plans while the efficiency of random sampling was independent of such patchiness. When resistant individuals were randomly distributed, sample sizes required to detect at least one resistant individual (resistance detection) with a probability of 0.95 were 300 (1%) and 50 (10% and 20%); whereas, when resistant individuals were patchily distributed, using systematic sampling, sample sizes required for such detection were 6000 (1%), 600 (10%) and 300 (20%). Sample sizes of 900 and 400 would be required to detect ≥90% of resistant individuals (resistance documentation) with a probability of 0.95 when resistant individuals were randomly dispersed and present at a frequency of 10% and 20%, respectively; whereas, when resistant individuals were patchily distributed, using systematic sampling, a sample size of 3000 and 1500, respectively, was necessary. Small sample sizes either underestimated or overestimated the resistance frequency. A simple random sampling plan is, therefore, recommended for insecticide resistance detection and subsequent documentation.

  7. Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

  8. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieuwhof, G.W.E.

    1976-01-01

    Failure of systems is undesirable, but also inevitable. The consequences of failure can be reduced if the failure mode can be anticipated and repair procedures planned in advance. The fault tree analysis is one method of identifying the most probable failure modes and determining system failure rates. From these rates, repair frequency can be estimated. (author)

  9. Reliability of Oronasal Fistula Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitzman, Thomas J; Allori, Alexander C; Matic, Damir B; Beals, Stephen P; Fisher, David M; Samson, Thomas D; Marcus, Jeffrey R; Tse, Raymond W

    2018-01-01

    Objective Oronasal fistula is an important complication of cleft palate repair that is frequently used to evaluate surgical quality, yet reliability of fistula classification has never been examined. The objective of this study was to determine the reliability of oronasal fistula classification both within individual surgeons and between multiple surgeons. Design Using intraoral photographs of children with repaired cleft palate, surgeons rated the location of palatal fistulae using the Pittsburgh Fistula Classification System. Intrarater and interrater reliability scores were calculated for each region of the palate. Participants Eight cleft surgeons rated photographs obtained from 29 children. Results Within individual surgeons reliability for each region of the Pittsburgh classification ranged from moderate to almost perfect (κ = .60-.96). By contrast, reliability between surgeons was lower, ranging from fair to substantial (κ = .23-.70). Between-surgeon reliability was lowest for the junction of the soft and hard palates (κ = .23). Within-surgeon and between-surgeon reliability were almost perfect for the more general classification of fistula in the secondary palate (κ = .95 and κ = .83, respectively). Conclusions This is the first reliability study of fistula classification. We show that the Pittsburgh Fistula Classification System is reliable when used by an individual surgeon, but less reliable when used among multiple surgeons. Comparisons of fistula occurrence among surgeons may be subject to less bias if they use the more general classification of "presence or absence of fistula of the secondary palate" rather than the Pittsburgh Fistula Classification System.

  10. Reliability analysis of containment isolation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelto, P.J.; Ames, K.R.; Gallucci, R.H.

    1985-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Reliability Analysis of Containment Isolation System Project. Work was performed in five basic areas: design review, operating experience review, related research review, generic analysis and plant specific analysis. Licensee Event Reports (LERs) and Integrated Leak Rate Test (ILRT) reports provided the major sources of containment performance information used in this study. Data extracted from LERs were assembled into a computer data base. Qualitative and quantitative information developed for containment performance under normal operating conditions and design basis accidents indicate that there is room for improvement. A rough estimate of overall containment unavailability for relatively small leaks which violate plant technical specifications is 0.3. An estimate of containment unavailability due to large leakage events is in the range of 0.001 to 0.01. These estimates are dependent on several assumptions (particularly on event duration times) which are documented in the report

  11. An Introduction To Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyoung Su

    1993-08-01

    This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

  12. Electric power supply and demand 1979 to 1988 for the contiguous United States as projected by the Regional Electric Reliability Councils in their April 1, 1979 long-range coordinated planning reports to the Department of Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savage, N.; Graban, W.

    1979-12-01

    Information concerning bulk electric power supply and demand is summarized and reviewed. Electric-utility power-supply systems are composed of power sources, transmission and distribution facilities, and users of electricity. In the United States there are three such systems of large geographic extent that together cover the entire country. Subjects covered are: energy forecasts, peak demand forecasts, generating-capacity forecasts, purchases and sales of capacity, and transmission. Extensive data are compiled in 17 tables. Information in two appendices includes a general description of the Regional Electric Reliability Councils and US generating capacity as of June 30, 1979. 3 figures, 17 tables.

  13. Estimation of modern range of fungicides and scope of their application in agriculture of Ukraine as component of state social and hygienic monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vavrinevych O.P.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the range of pesticides, including fungicides, authorized for use in Ukraine and the scope of their application during 1999 - 2012 years was carried out. Statistical research methods were used in the analysis, evaluation of the results was car¬ried out in terms of the rate of growth and increase. It was determined that in the range structure of pesticides, authorized for use in Ukraine the largest share accounted for herbicides. Part of the herbicides was 43,8±0,95% on average over the period from 1999 to 2012. The share of fungicides was 28,6±1,1%, insecticides - 20,3±0,78%, plant growth regulators - 7,4±0,59%. Mixed fungicides are the largest part of fungicides in the structure of the range (26,3-39,3%, the number of its had increased by 542% over 13-year period. Prior to 2003 there was a slight increase in the number of mixed fungicides, growth rate was 0-8,3% since 2006, its rate of increase has averaged 53% every 2 years. Triazoles and conazoles (14,9-31,4%, benzimidazoles, imidazoles (9,8-14,7%, carbamates, dithiocarbamates (3,1-13,8%, inorganic compounds (6,1-11,1% containing one active ingredient in formulation were the most common among the fungicides. The growth rate of strobilurin fungicides was 900%, triazoles – 550%, benzimidazoles, imidazoles – 400%, inorganic compounds – 243%, aniline-pyrimidines – 200%, pyrimidines, pyridines, pyrroles – 67%, dithiocarbamic and carbamic acid derivatives – 50%, phthalimides, phenylsulfamides, amides – 43%.

  14. A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, B.; Xie, M.

    2000-01-01

    Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated

  15. Factors affecting date of implantation, parturition, and den entry estimated from activity and body temperature in free-ranging brown bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friebe, Andrea; Evans, Alina L; Arnemo, Jon M; Blanc, Stéphane; Brunberg, Sven; Fleissner, Günther; Swenson, Jon E; Zedrosser, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of factors influencing the timing of reproduction is important for animal conservation and management. Brown bears (Ursus arctos) are able to vary the birth date of their cubs in response to their fat stores, but little information is available about the timing of implantation and parturition in free-ranging brown bears. Body temperature and activity of pregnant brown bears is higher during the gestation period than during the rest of hibernation and drops at parturition. We compared mean daily body temperature and activity levels of pregnant and nonpregnant females during preimplantation, gestation, and lactation. Additionally we tested whether age, litter size, primiparity, environmental conditions, and the start of hibernation influence the timing of parturition. The mean date of implantation was 1 December (SD = 12), the mean date of parturition was 26 January (SD = 12), and the mean duration of the gestation period was 56 days (SD = 2). The body temperature of pregnant females was higher during the gestation and lactation periods than that of nonpregnant bears. The body temperature of pregnant females decreased during the gestation period. Activity recordings were also used to determine the date of parturition. The parturition dates calculated with activity and body temperature data did not differ significantly and were the same in 50% of the females. Older females started hibernation earlier. The start of hibernation was earlier during years with favorable environmental conditions. Dates of parturition were later during years with good environmental conditions which was unexpected. We suggest that free-ranging pregnant brown bears in areas with high levels of human activities at the beginning of the denning period, as in our study area, might prioritize investing energy in early denning than in early parturition during years with favorable environmental conditions, as a strategy to prevent disturbances caused by human.

  16. Factors affecting date of implantation, parturition, and den entry estimated from activity and body temperature in free-ranging brown bears.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Friebe

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors influencing the timing of reproduction is important for animal conservation and management. Brown bears (Ursus arctos are able to vary the birth date of their cubs in response to their fat stores, but little information is available about the timing of implantation and parturition in free-ranging brown bears. Body temperature and activity of pregnant brown bears is higher during the gestation period than during the rest of hibernation and drops at parturition. We compared mean daily body temperature and activity levels of pregnant and nonpregnant females during preimplantation, gestation, and lactation. Additionally we tested whether age, litter size, primiparity, environmental conditions, and the start of hibernation influence the timing of parturition. The mean date of implantation was 1 December (SD = 12, the mean date of parturition was 26 January (SD = 12, and the mean duration of the gestation period was 56 days (SD = 2. The body temperature of pregnant females was higher during the gestation and lactation periods than that of nonpregnant bears. The body temperature of pregnant females decreased during the gestation period. Activity recordings were also used to determine the date of parturition. The parturition dates calculated with activity and body temperature data did not differ significantly and were the same in 50% of the females. Older females started hibernation earlier. The start of hibernation was earlier during years with favorable environmental conditions. Dates of parturition were later during years with good environmental conditions which was unexpected. We suggest that free-ranging pregnant brown bears in areas with high levels of human activities at the beginning of the denning period, as in our study area, might prioritize investing energy in early denning than in early parturition during years with favorable environmental conditions, as a strategy to prevent disturbances caused by human.

  17. Reliability of physical examination for diagnosis of myofascial trigger points: a systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Nicholas; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les; Moran, Robert; Bogduk, Nikolai

    2009-01-01

    Trigger points are promoted as an important cause of musculoskeletal pain. There is no accepted reference standard for the diagnosis of trigger points, and data on the reliability of physical examination for trigger points are conflicting. To systematically review the literature on the reliability of physical examination for the diagnosis of trigger points. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and other sources were searched for articles reporting the reliability of physical examination for trigger points. Included studies were evaluated for their quality and applicability, and reliability estimates were extracted and reported. Nine studies were eligible for inclusion. None satisfied all quality and applicability criteria. No study specifically reported reliability for the identification of the location of active trigger points in the muscles of symptomatic participants. Reliability estimates varied widely for each diagnostic sign, for each muscle, and across each study. Reliability estimates were generally higher for subjective signs such as tenderness (kappa range, 0.22-1.0) and pain reproduction (kappa range, 0.57-1.00), and lower for objective signs such as the taut band (kappa range, -0.08-0.75) and local twitch response (kappa range, -0.05-0.57). No study to date has reported the reliability of trigger point diagnosis according to the currently proposed criteria. On the basis of the limited number of studies available, and significant problems with their design, reporting, statistical integrity, and clinical applicability, physical examination cannot currently be recommended as a reliable test for the diagnosis of trigger points. The reliability of trigger point diagnosis needs to be further investigated with studies of high quality that use current diagnostic criteria in clinically relevant patients.

  18. Reliability evaluation of a natural circulation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafari, Jalil; D'Auria, Francesco; Kazeminejad, Hossein; Davilu, Hadi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses a reliability study performed with reference to a passive thermohydraulic natural circulation (NC) system, named TTL-1. A methodology based on probabilistic techniques has been applied with the main purpose to optimize the system design. The obtained results have been adopted to estimate the thermal-hydraulic reliability (TH-R) of the same system. A total of 29 relevant parameters (including nominal values and plausible ranges of variations) affecting the design and the NC performance of the TTL-1 loop are identified and a probability of occurrence is assigned for each value based on expert judgment. Following procedures established for the uncertainty evaluation of thermal-hydraulic system codes results, 137 system configurations have been selected and each configuration has been analyzed via the Relap5 best-estimate code. The reference system configuration and the failure criteria derived from the 'mission' of the passive system are adopted for the evaluation of the system TH-R. Four different definitions of a less-than-unity 'reliability-values' (where unity represents the maximum achievable reliability) are proposed for the performance of the selected passive system. This is normally considered fully reliable, i.e. reliability-value equal one, in typical Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) applications in nuclear reactor safety. The two 'point' TH-R values for the considered NC system were found equal to 0.70 and 0.85, i.e. values comparable with the reliability of a pump installed in an 'equivalent' forced circulation (active) system having the same 'mission'. The design optimization study was completed by a regression analysis addressing the output of the 137 calculations: heat losses, undetected leakage, loop length, riser diameter, and equivalent diameter of the test section have been found as the most important parameters bringing to the optimal system design and affecting the TH-R. As added values for this work, the comparison has

  19. Reliability of hospital cost profiles in inpatient surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenda, Tyler R; Krell, Robert W; Dimick, Justin B

    2016-02-01

    With increased policy emphasis on shifting risk from payers to providers through mechanisms such as bundled payments and accountable care organizations, hospitals are increasingly in need of metrics to understand their costs relative to peers. However, it is unclear whether Medicare payments for surgery can reliably compare hospital costs. We used national Medicare data to assess patients undergoing colectomy, pancreatectomy, and open incisional hernia repair from 2009 to 2010 (n = 339,882 patients). We first calculated risk-adjusted hospital total episode payments for each procedure. We then used hierarchical modeling techniques to estimate the reliability of total episode payments for each procedure and explored the impact of hospital caseload on payment reliability. Finally, we quantified the number of hospitals meeting published reliability benchmarks. Mean risk-adjusted total episode payments ranged from $13,262 (standard deviation [SD] $14,523) for incisional hernia repair to $25,055 (SD $22,549) for pancreatectomy. The reliability of hospital episode payments varied widely across procedures and depended on sample size. For example, mean episode payment reliability for colectomy (mean caseload, 157) was 0.80 (SD 0.18), whereas for pancreatectomy (mean caseload, 13) the mean reliability was 0.45 (SD 0.27). Many hospitals met published reliability benchmarks for each procedure. For example, 90% of hospitals met reliability benchmarks for colectomy, 40% for pancreatectomy, and 66% for incisional hernia repair. Episode payments for inpatient surgery are a reliable measure of hospital costs for commonly performed procedures, but are less reliable for lower volume operations. These findings suggest that hospital cost profiles based on Medicare claims data may be used to benchmark efficiency, especially for more common procedures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The Norwegian Emission Inventory 2011. Documentation of methodologies for estimating emissions of greenhouse gases and long-range transboundary air pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandmo, Trond

    2012-07-01

    The Norwegian emission inventory is a joint undertaking between the Climate and Pollution Agency1 and Statistics Norway. Statistics Norway is responsible for the collection and development of activity data, and emission figures are derived from models operated by Statistics Norway. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the emission factors, for providing data from specific industries and sources and for considering the quality, and assuring necessary updating, of emission models like, e.g., the road traffic model and calculation of methane emissions from landfills. Emission data are used for a range of national applications and for international reporting. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the Norwegian reporting to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to United Nations Economic Commission Europe (UN-ECE). This report documents the methodologies used in the Norwegian emission inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG), acidifying pollutants, heavy metals (HM) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The documentation will also serve as a part of the National Inventory Report submitted by Norway to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as documentation of the reported emissions to UNECE for the pollutants restricted by CLRTAP (Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution). LULUCF is not considered in this report, see the National Inventory Report (Climate and Pollution Agency 2011b) for documentation on this topic. This report replaces the previous documentation of the emission model (Sandmo 2010), and is the latest annually updated version of a report edited by Britta Hoem in 2005. The most important changes since last year's documentation are: To define the different economic sectors in the Norwegian emission model, the standard industrial classification SIC2007 has replaced the previous SIC2002 (Appendix F) A new model for calculating emissions to air (HBEFA

  1. The Norwegian Emission Inventory 2011. Documentation of methodologies for estimating emissions of greenhouse gases and long-range transboundary air pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandmo, Trond

    2012-07-01

    The Norwegian emission inventory is a joint undertaking between the Climate and Pollution Agency1 and Statistics Norway. Statistics Norway is responsible for the collection and development of activity data, and emission figures are derived from models operated by Statistics Norway. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the emission factors, for providing data from specific industries and sources and for considering the quality, and assuring necessary updating, of emission models like, e.g., the road traffic model and calculation of methane emissions from landfills. Emission data are used for a range of national applications and for international reporting. The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsible for the Norwegian reporting to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to United Nations Economic Commission Europe (UN-ECE). This report documents the methodologies used in the Norwegian emission inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG), acidifying pollutants, heavy metals (HM) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The documentation will also serve as a part of the National Inventory Report submitted by Norway to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as documentation of the reported emissions to UNECE for the pollutants restricted by CLRTAP (Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution). LULUCF is not considered in this report, see the National Inventory Report (Climate and Pollution Agency 2011b) for documentation on this topic. This report replaces the previous documentation of the emission model (Sandmo 2010), and is the latest annually updated version of a report edited by Britta Hoem in 2005. The most important changes since last year's documentation are: To define the different economic sectors in the Norwegian emission model, the standard industrial classification SIC2007 has replaced the previous SIC2002 (Appendix F) A new model for calculating emissions to air (HBEFA) from

  2. Improving Power Converter Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghimire, Pramod; de Vega, Angel Ruiz; Beczkowski, Szymon

    2014-01-01

    of a high-power IGBT module during converter operation, which may play a vital role in improving the reliability of the power converters. The measured voltage is used to estimate the module average junction temperature of the high and low-voltage side of a half-bridge IGBT separately in every fundamental......The real-time junction temperature monitoring of a high-power insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) module is important to increase the overall reliability of power converters for industrial applications. This article proposes a new method to measure the on-state collector?emitter voltage...... is measured in a wind power converter at a low fundamental frequency. To illustrate more, the test method as well as the performance of the measurement circuit are also presented. This measurement is also useful to indicate failure mechanisms such as bond wire lift-off and solder layer degradation...

  3. Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1995-01-01

    A number of software reliability models have been developed to estimate and to predict software reliability. However, there are no established standard models to quantify software reliability. Most models estimate the quality of software in reliability figures such as remaining faults, failure rate, or mean time to next failure at the testing phase, and they consider them ultimate indicators of software reliability. Experience shows that there is a large gap between predicted reliability during development and reliability measured during operation, which means that predicted reliability, or so-called test reliability, is not operational reliability. Customers prefer operational reliability to test reliability. In this study, we propose a method that predicts operational reliability rather than test reliability by introducing the testing environment factor that quantifies the changes in environments

  4. Is gait variability reliable in older adults and Parkinson's disease? Towards an optimal testing protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galna, Brook; Lord, Sue; Rochester, Lynn

    2013-04-01

    Despite the widespread use of gait variability in research and clinical studies, testing protocols designed to optimise its reliability have not been established. This study evaluates the impact of testing protocol and pathology on the reliability of gait variability. To (i) estimate the reliability of gait variability during continuous and intermittent walking protocols in older adults and people with Parkinson's disease (PD), (ii) determine optimal number of steps for acceptable levels of reliability of gait variability and (iii) provide sample size estimates for use in clinical trials. Gait variability was measured twice, one week apart, in 27 older adults and 25 PD participants. Participants walked at their preferred pace during: (i) a continuous 2 min walk and (ii) 3 intermittent walks over a 12 m walkway. Gait variability was calculated as the within-person standard deviation for step velocity, length and width, and step, stance and swing duration. Reliability of gait variability ranged from poor to excellent (intra class correlations .041-.860; relative limits of agreement 34-89%). Gait variability was more reliable during continuous walks. Control and PD participants demonstrated similar reliability. Increasing the number of steps improved reliability, with most improvement seen across the first 30 steps. In this study, we identified testing protocols that improve the reliability of measuring gait variability. We recommend using a continuous walking protocol and to collect no fewer than 30 steps. Early PD does not appear to impact negatively on the reliability of gait variability. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. On Range of Skill

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Dueholm; Miltersen, Peter Bro; Sørensen, Troels Bjerre

    2008-01-01

    size (and doubly exponential in its depth). We also provide techniques that yield concrete bounds for unbalanced game trees and apply these to estimate the Range of Skill of Tic-Tac-Toe and Heads-Up Limit Texas Hold'em Poker. In particular, we show that the Range of Skill of Tic-Tac-Toe is more than...

  6. Underwater Ranging

    OpenAIRE

    S. P. Gaba

    1984-01-01

    The paper deals with underwater laser ranging system, its principle of operation and maximum depth capability. The sources of external noise and methods to improve signal-to-noise ratio are also discussed.

  7. Reliability and construction control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherif S. AbdelSalam

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to determine the most reliable and efficient combination of design and construction methods required for vibro piles. For a wide range of static and dynamic formulas, the reliability-based resistance factors were calculated using EGYPT database, which houses load test results for 318 piles. The analysis was extended to introduce a construction control factor that determines the variation between the pile nominal capacities calculated using static versus dynamic formulae. From the major outcomes, the lowest coefficient of variation is associated with Davisson’s criterion, and the resistance factors calculated for the AASHTO method are relatively high compared with other methods. Additionally, the CPT-Nottingham and Schmertmann method provided the most economic design. Recommendations related to a pile construction control factor were also presented, and it was found that utilizing the factor can significantly reduce variations between calculated and actual capacities.

  8. Reliability and mass analysis of dynamic power conversion systems with parallel or standby redundancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhasz, Albert J.; Bloomfield, Harvey S.

    1987-01-01

    A combinatorial reliability approach was used to identify potential dynamic power conversion systems for space mission applications. A reliability and mass analysis was also performed, specifically for a 100-kWe nuclear Brayton power conversion system with parallel redundancy. Although this study was done for a reactor outlet temperature of 1100 K, preliminary system mass estimates are also included for reactor outlet temperatures ranging up to 1500 K.

  9. Reliability and mass analysis of dynamic power conversion systems with parallel of standby redundancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhasz, A. J.; Bloomfield, H. S.

    1985-01-01

    A combinatorial reliability approach is used to identify potential dynamic power conversion systems for space mission applications. A reliability and mass analysis is also performed, specifically for a 100 kWe nuclear Brayton power conversion system with parallel redundancy. Although this study is done for a reactor outlet temperature of 1100K, preliminary system mass estimates are also included for reactor outlet temperatures ranging up to 1500 K.

  10. Histogram score contributes for reliability of DNA content estimatives in Brachiaria spp Notas do histograma contribuem para a confiabilidade das estimativas do conteúdo de DNA de Brachiaria spp

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza de Oliveira Timbó

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Flow cytometry allows to estimate the DNA content of a large number of plants quickly. However, inadequate protocols can compromise the reliability of these estimates leading to variations in the values of DNA content the same species. The objective of this study was to propose an efficient protocol to estimate the DNA content of Brachiaria spp. genotypes with different ploidy levels using flow cytometry. We evaluated four genotypes (B. ruziziensis diploid and artificially tetraploidized; a tetraploid B. brizantha and a natural triploid hybrid, three buffer solutions (MgSO4, Galbraith and Tris-HCl and three species as internal reference standards (Raphanus sativus, Solanum lycopersicum e Pisum sativum. The variables measured were: histogram score (1-5, coefficient of variation and estimation of DNA content. The best combination for the analysis of Brachiaria spp. DNA content was the use of MgSO4 buffer with R. sativus as a internal reference standard. Genome sizes expressed in picograms of DNA are presented for all genotypes and the importance of the histogram score on the results reliability of DNA content analyses were discussed.A citometria de fluxo permite estimar o conteúdo de DNA de um grande número de plantas rapidamente. No entanto, protocolos inadequados podem comprometer a confiabilidade dessas estimativas, levando a variações nos valores de conteúdo de DNA para uma mesma espécie. Neste trabalho, objetivou-se propor um protocolo eficiente para a estimativa do conteúdo de DNA de genótipos de Brachiaria spp. com diferentes níveis de ploidia, utilizando a citometria de fluxo. Foram avaliados quatro genótipos (B. ruziziensis, diploide e tetraploidizada artificialmente; B. brizantha tetraploide e um híbrido natural triploide, 3 soluções tampões (MgSO4, Galbraith e Tris-HCl e três espécies como padrões de referência interno (Raphanus sativus, Solanum lycopersicum e Pisum sativum. As variáveis mensuradas foram: nota do

  11. Binding free energy predictions of farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonists using a linear interaction energy (LIE) approach with reliability estimation: application to the D3R Grand Challenge 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rifai, Eko Aditya; van Dijk, Marc; Vermeulen, Nico P. E.; Geerke, Daan P.

    2018-01-01

    Computational protein binding affinity prediction can play an important role in drug research but performing efficient and accurate binding free energy calculations is still challenging. In the context of phase 2 of the Drug Design Data Resource (D3R) Grand Challenge 2 we used our automated eTOX ALLIES approach to apply the (iterative) linear interaction energy (LIE) method and we evaluated its performance in predicting binding affinities for farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonists. Efficiency was obtained by our pre-calibrated LIE models and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations at the nanosecond scale, while predictive accuracy was obtained for a small subset of compounds. Using our recently introduced reliability estimation metrics, we could classify predictions with higher confidence by featuring an applicability domain (AD) analysis in combination with protein-ligand interaction profiling. The outcomes of and agreement between our AD and interaction-profile analyses to distinguish and rationalize the performance of our predictions highlighted the relevance of sufficiently exploring protein-ligand interactions during training and it demonstrated the possibility to quantitatively and efficiently evaluate if this is achieved by using simulation data only.

  12. Test Reliability at the Individual Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yueqin; Nesselroade, John R.; Erbacher, Monica K.; Boker, Steven M.; Burt, S. Alexandra; Keel, Pamela K.; Neale, Michael C.; Sisk, Cheryl L.; Klump, Kelly

    2016-01-01

    Reliability has a long history as one of the key psychometric properties of a test. However, a given test might not measure people equally reliably. Test scores from some individuals may have considerably greater error than others. This study proposed two approaches using intraindividual variation to estimate test reliability for each person. A simulation study suggested that the parallel tests approach and the structural equation modeling approach recovered the simulated reliability coefficients. Then in an empirical study, where forty-five females were measured daily on the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) for 45 consecutive days, separate estimates of reliability were generated for each person. Results showed that reliability estimates of the PANAS varied substantially from person to person. The methods provided in this article apply to tests measuring changeable attributes and require repeated measures across time on each individual. This article also provides a set of parallel forms of PANAS. PMID:28936107

  13. Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    In order to minimise the total expected life-cycle costs of a wind turbine it is important to estimate the reliability level for all components in the wind turbine. This paper deals with reliability analysis for the tower and blades of onshore wind turbines placed in a wind farm. The limit states...... consideres are in the ultimate limit state (ULS) extreme conditions in the standstill position and extreme conditions during operating. For wind turbines, where the magnitude of the loads is influenced by the control system, the ultimate limit state can occur in both cases. In the fatigue limit state (FLS......) the reliability level for a wind turbine placed in a wind farm is considered, and wake effects from neighbouring wind turbines is taken into account. An illustrative example with calculation of the reliability for mudline bending of the tower is considered. In the example the design is determined according...

  14. Fatigue Reliability under Random Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Talreja, R.

    1979-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the probability of survival (non-failure) and the probability of safe operation (strength greater than a limiting value) of structures subjected to random loads. These probabilities are formulated in terms of the probability distributions of the loads...... propagation stage. The consequences of this behaviour on the fatigue reliability are discussed....

  15. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-01-01

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  16. Inter-observer reliability of DSM-5 substance use disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Cécile M; Gelernter, Joel; Hart, Amy B; Kranzler, Henry R

    2015-08-01

    Although studies have examined the impact of changes made in DSM-5 on the estimated prevalence of substance use disorder (SUD) diagnoses, there is limited evidence concerning the reliability of DSM-5 SUDs. We evaluated the inter-observer reliability of four DSM-5 SUDs in a sample in which we had previously evaluated the reliability of DSM-IV diagnoses, allowing us to compare the two systems. Two different interviewers each assessed 173 subjects over a 2-week period using the Semi-Structured Assessment for Drug Dependence and Alcoholism (SSADDA). Using the percent agreement and kappa (κ) coefficient, we examined the reliability of DSM-5 lifetime alcohol, opioid, cocaine, and cannabis use disorders, which we compared to that of SSADDA-derived DSM-IV SUD diagnoses. We also assessed the effect of additional lifetime SUD and lifetime mood or anxiety disorder diagnoses on the reliability of the DSM-5 SUD diagnoses. Reliability was good to excellent for the four disorders, with κ values ranging from 0.65 to 0.94. Agreement was consistently lower for SUDs of mild severity than for moderate or severe disorders. DSM-5 SUD diagnoses showed greater reliability than DSM-IV diagnoses of abuse or dependence or dependence only. Co-occurring SUD and lifetime mood or anxiety disorders exerted a modest effect on the reliability of the DSM-5 SUD diagnoses. For alcohol, opioid, cocaine and cannabis use disorders, DSM-5 criteria and diagnoses are at least as reliable as those of DSM-IV. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Inter-Observer Reliability of DSM-5 Substance Use Disorders*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Cécile M.; Gelernter, Joel; Hart, Amy B.; Kranzler, Henry R.

    2015-01-01

    Aims Although studies have examined the impact of changes made in DSM-5 on the estimated prevalence of substance use disorder (SUD) diagnoses, there is limited evidence of the reliability of DSM-5 SUDs. We evaluated the inter-observer reliability of four DSM-5 SUDs in a sample in which we had previously evaluated the reliability of DSM-IV diagnoses, allowing us to compare the two systems. Methods Two different interviewers each assessed 173 subjects over a 2-week period using the Semi-Structured Assessment for Drug Dependence and Alcoholism (SSADDA). Using the percent agreement and kappa (κ) coefficient, we examined the reliability of DSM-5 lifetime alcohol, opioid, cocaine, and cannabis use disorders, which we compared to that of SSADDA-derived DSM-IV SUD diagnoses. We also assessed the effect of additional lifetime SUD and lifetime mood or anxiety disorder diagnoses on the reliability of the DSM-5 SUD diagnoses. Results Reliability was good to excellent for the four disorders, with κ values ranging from 0.65 to 0.94. Agreement was consistently lower for SUDs of mild severity than for moderate or severe disorders. DSM-5 SUD diagnoses showed greater reliability than DSM-IV diagnoses of abuse or dependence or dependence only. Co-occurring SUD and lifetime mood or anxiety disorders exerted a modest effect on the reliability of the DSM-5 SUD diagnoses. Conclusions For alcohol, opioid, cocaine and cannabis use disorders, DSM-5 criteria and diagnoses are at least as reliable as those of DSM-IV. PMID:26048641

  18. Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao

    2018-01-01

    In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…

  19. AMSAA Reliability Growth Guide

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Broemm, William

    2000-01-01

    ... has developed reliability growth methodology for all phases of the process, from planning to tracking to projection. The report presents this methodology and associated reliability growth concepts.

  20. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  1. A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

  2. Reliability and Validity Assessment of a Linear Position Transducer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnacho-Castaño, Manuel V.; López-Lastra, Silvia; Maté-Muñoz, José L.

    2015-01-01

    The objectives of the study were to determine the validity and reliability of peak velocity (PV), average velocity (AV), peak power (PP) and average power (AP) measurements were made using a linear position transducer. Validity was assessed by comparing measurements simultaneously obtained using the Tendo Weightlifting Analyzer Systemi and T-Force Dynamic Measurement Systemr (Ergotech, Murcia, Spain) during two resistance exercises, bench press (BP) and full back squat (BS), performed by 71 trained male subjects. For the reliability study, a further 32 men completed both lifts using the Tendo Weightlifting Analyzer Systemz in two identical testing sessions one week apart (session 1 vs. session 2). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) indicating the validity of the Tendo Weightlifting Analyzer Systemi were high, with values ranging from 0.853 to 0.989. Systematic biases and random errors were low to moderate for almost all variables, being higher in the case of PP (bias ±157.56 W; error ±131.84 W). Proportional biases were identified for almost all variables. Test-retest reliability was strong with ICCs ranging from 0.922 to 0.988. Reliability results also showed minimal systematic biases and random errors, which were only significant for PP (bias -19.19 W; error ±67.57 W). Only PV recorded in the BS showed no significant proportional bias. The Tendo Weightlifting Analyzer Systemi emerged as a reliable system for measuring movement velocity and estimating power in resistance exercises. The low biases and random errors observed here (mainly AV, AP) make this device a useful tool for monitoring resistance training. Key points This study determined the validity and reliability of peak velocity, average velocity, peak power and average power measurements made using a linear position transducer The Tendo Weight-lifting Analyzer Systemi emerged as a reliable system for measuring movement velocity and power. PMID:25729300

  3. Are Validity and Reliability "Relevant" in Qualitative Evaluation Research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Laura D.; Goodwin, William L.

    1984-01-01

    The views of prominant qualitative methodologists on the appropriateness of validity and reliability estimation for the measurement strategies employed in qualitative evaluations are summarized. A case is made for the relevance of validity and reliability estimation. Definitions of validity and reliability for qualitative measurement are presented…

  4. Reliability of four experimental mechanical pain tests in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soee AL

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Ann-Britt L Soee,1 Lise L Thomsen,2 Birte Tornoe,1,3 Liselotte Skov11Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Headache Clinic, Copenhagen University Hospital Herlev, Copenhagen, Denmark; 2Department of Neuropediatrics, Juliane Marie Centre, Copenhagen University Hospital Rigshospitalet, København Ø, Denmark; 3Department of Physiotherapy, Medical Department O, Copenhagen University Hospital Herlev, Herlev, DenmarkPurpose: In order to study pain in children, it is necessary to determine whether pain measurement tools used in adults are reliable measurements in children. The aim of this study was to explore the intrasession reliability of pressure pain thresholds (PPT in healthy children. Furthermore, the aim was also to study the intersession reliability of the following four tests: (1 Total Tenderness Score; (2 PPT; (3 Visual Analog Scale score at suprapressure pain threshold; and (4 area under the curve (stimulus–response functions for pressure versus pain.Participants and methods: Twenty-five healthy school children, 8–14 years of age, participated. Test 2, PPT, was repeated three times at 2 minute intervals on the same day to estimate PPT intrasession reliability using Cronbach’s alpha. Tests 1–4 were repeated after median 21 (interquartile range 10.5–22 days, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to describe the intersession reliability.Results: The PPT test was precise and reliable (Cronbach’s alpha ≥ 0.92. All tests showed a good to excellent correlation between days (intersessions r = 0.66–0.81. There were no indications of significant systematic differences found in any of the four tests between days.Conclusion: All tests seemed to be reliable measurements in pain evaluation in healthy children aged 8–14 years. Given the small sample size, this conclusion needs to be confirmed in future studies.Keywords: repeatability, intraindividual reliability, pressure pain threshold, pain measurement, algometer

  5. Lifetime Reliability Assessment of Concrete Slab Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    A procedure for lifetime assesment of the reliability of short concrete slab bridges is presented in the paper. Corrosion of the reinforcement is the deterioration mechanism used for estimating the reliability profiles for such bridges. The importance of using sensitivity measures is stressed....... Finally the produce is illustrated on 6 existing UK bridges....

  6. Reliability of PWR type nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, A.A.T.; Muniz, A.A.

    1978-12-01

    Results of the analysis of factors influencing the reliability of international nuclear power plants of the PWR type are presented. The reliability factor is estimated and the probability of its having lower values than a certain specified value is discussed. (Author) [pt

  7. Scale Reliability Evaluation with Heterogeneous Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2015-01-01

    A latent variable modeling approach for scale reliability evaluation in heterogeneous populations is discussed. The method can be used for point and interval estimation of reliability of multicomponent measuring instruments in populations representing mixtures of an unknown number of latent classes or subpopulations. The procedure is helpful also…

  8. Competing risk models in reliability systems, a Weibull distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iskandar, Ismed; Gondokaryono, Yudi Satria

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

  9. Reliability tasks from prediction to field use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guyot, Christian.

    1975-01-01

    This tutorial paper is part of a series intended to sensitive on reliability prolems. Reliability probabilistic concept, is an important parameter of availability. Reliability prediction is an estimation process for evaluating design progress. It is only by the application of a reliability program that reliability objectives can be attained through the different stages of work: conception, fabrication, field use. The user is mainly interested in operational reliability. Indication are given on the support and the treatment of data in the case of electronic equipment at C.E.A. Reliability engineering requires a special state of mind which must be formed and developed in a company in the same way as it may be done for example for safety [fr

  10. Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik

    Cost reductions for offshore wind turbines are a substantial requirement in order to make offshore wind energy more competitive compared to other energy supply methods. During the 20 – 25 years of wind turbines useful life, Operation & Maintenance costs are typically estimated to be a quarter...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied...... to one third of the total cost of energy. Reduction of Operation & Maintenance costs will result in significant cost savings and result in cheaper electricity production. Operation & Maintenance processes mainly involve actions related to replacements or repair. Identifying the right times when...

  11. Reliability data banks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.

    1991-01-01

    Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)

  12. Suncor maintenance and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, S. [Suncor Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Fleet maintenance and reliability at Suncor Energy was discussed in this presentation, with reference to Suncor Energy's primary and support equipment fleets. This paper also discussed Suncor Energy's maintenance and reliability standard involving people, processes and technology. An organizational maturity chart that graphed organizational learning against organizational performance was illustrated. The presentation also reviewed the maintenance and reliability framework; maintenance reliability model; the process overview of the maintenance and reliability standard; a process flow chart of maintenance strategies and programs; and an asset reliability improvement process flow chart. An example of an improvement initiative was included, with reference to a shovel reliability review; a dipper trip reliability investigation; bucket related failures by type and frequency; root cause analysis of the reliability process; and additional actions taken. Last, the presentation provided a graph of the results of the improvement initiative and presented the key lessons learned. tabs., figs.

  13. The Accelerator Reliability Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R

    2014-01-01

    A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.

  14. Interplanetary laser ranging - an emerging technology for planetary science missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirkx, D.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.

    2012-09-01

    Interplanetary laser ranging (ILR) is an emerging technology for very high accuracy distance determination between Earth-based stations and spacecraft or landers at interplanetary distances. It has evolved from laser ranging to Earth-orbiting satellites, modified with active laser transceiver systems at both ends of the link instead of the passive space-based retroreflectors. It has been estimated that this technology can be used for mm- to cm-level accuracy range determination at interplanetary distances [2, 7]. Work is being performed in the ESPaCE project [6] to evaluate in detail the potential and limitations of this technology by means of bottom-up laser link simulation, allowing for a reliable performance estimate from mission architecture and hardware characteristics.

  15. Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty: Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Rui

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence-theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics (posbist reliability and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics (belief reliability. It is pointed out that a qualified reliability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to (1 compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and (2 satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.