Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

2016-03-01

Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.

The three faces of bounded reliability: Alfred Chandler and the micro-foundations of management theory

OpenAIRE

Kano, Liena; Verbeke, Alain

2015-01-01

Alfred Chandler, the celebrated business historian, provided detailed descriptions of the reasons for failed human commitments and the managerial tools needed to prevent/remediate such failings in the context of large business firms. Chandler's historical narrative identifies three distinct “faces” of bounded reliability—opportunism, benevolent preference reversal, and identity-based discordance—as the main drivers of commitment failure. Adopting bounded reliability (BRel) as a micro-foundati...

Dynamic analysis and reliability assessment of structures with uncertain-but-bounded parameters under stochastic process excitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Do, Duy Minh; Gao, Wei; Song, Chongmin; Tangaramvong, Sawekchai

2014-01-01

This paper presents the non-deterministic dynamic analysis and reliability assessment of structures with uncertain-but-bounded parameters under stochastic process excitations. Random ground acceleration from earthquake motion is adopted to illustrate the stochastic process force. The exact change ranges of natural frequencies, random vibration displacement and stress responses of structures are investigated under the interval analysis framework. Formulations for structural reliability are developed considering the safe boundary and structural random vibration responses as interval parameters. An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, namely randomised lower sequence initialized high-order nonlinear particle swarm optimization algorithm, is employed to capture the better bounds of structural dynamic characteristics, random vibration responses and reliability. Three numerical examples are used to demonstrate the presented method for interval random vibration analysis and reliability assessment of structures. The accuracy of the results obtained by the presented method is verified by the randomised Quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method (QMCSM) and direct Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM). - Highlights: • Interval uncertainty is introduced into structural random vibration responses. • Interval dynamic reliability assessments of structures are implemented. • Boundaries of structural dynamic response and reliability are achieved

Determining Normal-Distribution Tolerance Bounds Graphically

Science.gov (United States)

Mezzacappa, M. A.

1983-01-01

Graphical method requires calculations and table lookup. Distribution established from only three points: mean upper and lower confidence bounds and lower confidence bound of standard deviation. Method requires only few calculations with simple equations. Graphical procedure establishes best-fit line for measured data and bounds for selected confidence level and any distribution percentile.

Dynamics of bounded confidence opinion in heterogeneous social networks: Concord against partial antagonism

Science.gov (United States)

Kurmyshev, Evguenii; Juárez, Héctor A.; González-Silva, Ricardo A.

2011-08-01

Bounded confidence models of opinion dynamics in social networks have been actively studied in recent years, in particular, opinion formation and extremism propagation along with other aspects of social dynamics. In this work, after an analysis of limitations of the Deffuant-Weisbuch (DW) bounded confidence, relative agreement model, we propose the mixed model that takes into account two psychological types of individuals. Concord agents (C-agents) are friendly people; they interact in a way that their opinions always get closer. Agents of the other psychological type show partial antagonism in their interaction (PA-agents). Opinion dynamics in heterogeneous social groups, consisting of agents of the two types, was studied on different social networks: Erdös-Rényi random graphs, small-world networks and complete graphs. Limit cases of the mixed model, pure C- and PA-societies, were also studied. We found that group opinion formation is, qualitatively, almost independent of the topology of networks used in this work. Opinion fragmentation, polarization and consensus are observed in the mixed model at different proportions of PA- and C-agents, depending on the value of initial opinion tolerance of agents. As for the opinion formation and arising of “dissidents”, the opinion dynamics of the C-agents society was found to be similar to that of the DW model, except for the rate of opinion convergence. Nevertheless, mixed societies showed dynamics and bifurcation patterns notably different to those of the DW model. The influence of biased initial conditions over opinion formation in heterogeneous social groups was also studied versus the initial value of opinion uncertainty, varying the proportion of the PA- to C-agents. Bifurcation diagrams showed an impressive evolution of collective opinion, in particular, radical changes of left to right consensus or vice versa at an opinion uncertainty value equal to 0.7 in the model with the PA/C mixture of population near 50/50.

Overestimation of reliability by Guttman’s λ4, λ5, and λ6, and the greatest lower bound

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterwijk, P.R.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.; van der Ark, L.A.; Wiberg, M.; Culpepper, S.A.; Douglas, J.A.; Wang, W.-C.

2017-01-01

For methods using statistical optimization to estimate lower bounds to test-score reliability, we investigated the degree to which they overestimate true reliability. Optimization methods do not only exploit real relationships between items but also tend to capitalize on sampling error and do this

The transient M/G/1/0 queue: some bounds and approximations for light traffic with application to reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Ben Atkinson

1995-01-01

Full Text Available We consider the transient analysis of the M/G/1/0 queue, for which Pn(t denotes the probability that there are no customers in the system at time t, given that there are n(n=0,1 customers in the system at time 0. The analysis, which is based upon coupling theory, leads to simple bounds on Pn(t for the M/G/1/0 and M/PH/1/0 queues and improved bounds for the special case M/Er/1/0. Numerical results are presented for various values of the mean arrival rate λ to demonstrate the increasing accuracy of approximations based upon the above bounds in light traffic, i.e., as λ→0. An important area of application for the M/G/1/0 queue is as a reliability model for a single repairable component. Since most practical reliability problems have λ values that are small relative to the mean service rate, the approximations are potentially useful in that context. A duality relation between the M/G/1/0 and GI/M/1/0 queues is also described.

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

Science.gov (United States)

Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

The short version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale: its validity, reliability, and relationship to balance impairment and falls in older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Schepens, Stacey; Goldberg, Allon; Wallace, Melissa

2010-01-01

A shortened version of the ABC 16-item scale (ABC-16), the ABC-6, has been proposed as an alternative balance confidence measure. We investigated whether the ABC-6 is a valid and reliable measure of balance confidence and examined its relationship to balance impairment and falls in older adults. Thirty-five community-dwelling older adults completed the ABC-16, including the 6 questions of the ABC-6. They also completed the following clinical balance tests: unipedal stance time (UST), functional reach (FR), Timed Up and Go (TUG), and maximum step length (MSL). Participants reported 12-month falls history. Balance confidence on the ABC-6 was significantly lower than on the ABC-16, however scores were highly correlated. Fallers reported lower balance confidence than non-fallers as measured by the ABC-6 scale, but confidence did not differ between the groups with the ABC-16. The ABC-6 significantly correlated with all balance tests assessed and number of falls. The ABC-16 significantly correlated with all balance tests assessed, but not with number of falls. Test-retest reliability for the ABC-16 and ABC-6 was good to excellent. The ABC-6 is a valid and reliable measure of balance confidence in community-dwelling older adults, and shows stronger relationships to falls than does the ABC-16. The ABC-6 may be a more useful balance confidence assessment tool than the ABC-16. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Operational safety system reliability. Progress report, November 15, 1975--May 14, 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hockenbury, R.W.; Yeater, M.L.

1976-05-01

The report describes the objectives and present status of a study concerning the operational reliability of nuclear power plants. The purpose of the study is to develop utilitarian models for use with the Liquid-Metal-Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor; initial testing of the formalism can be carried out with LWR operational data. Methods are being directed towards (1) day-to-day operation of the nuclear plant protection system and (2) to better understand the protection system sensor characteristics in order to anticipate off-normal conditions. The initial models now underway are based on moment-matching, confidence bounding, and convolution methods in the case of the protection system reliability, and for the sensor response function, a convolution of component reliability probability distributions and noise signatures

Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles

Science.gov (United States)

Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green

2002-01-01

Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...

Estimates of mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean associated with low-probability seismic events in total system performance assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James

2007-01-01

An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)

The reliability and validity of three questionnaires: The Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale, Simulation Design Scale, and Educational Practices Questionnaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Unver, Vesile; Basak, Tulay; Watts, Penni; Gaioso, Vanessa; Moss, Jacqueline; Tastan, Sevinc; Iyigun, Emine; Tosun, Nuran

2017-02-01

The purpose of this study was to adapt the "Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale" (SCLS), "Simulation Design Scale" (SDS), and "Educational Practices Questionnaire" (EPQ) developed by Jeffries and Rizzolo into Turkish and establish the reliability and the validity of these translated scales. A sample of 87 nursing students participated in this study. These scales were cross-culturally adapted through a process including translation, comparison with original version, back translation, and pretesting. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis, and criterion validity was evaluated using the Perceived Learning Scale, Patient Intervention Self-confidence/Competency Scale, and Educational Belief Scale. Cronbach's alpha values were found as 0.77-0.85 for SCLS, 0.73-0.86 for SDS, and 0.61-0.86 for EPQ. The results of this study show that the Turkish versions of all scales are validated and reliable measurement tools.

Finding upper bounds for software failure probabilities - experiments and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristiansen, Monica; Winther, Rune

2005-09-01

This report looks into some aspects of using Bayesian hypothesis testing to find upper bounds for software failure probabilities. In the first part, the report evaluates the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach for finding upper bounds for failure probabilities of single software components. The report shows how different choices of prior probability distributions for a software component's failure probability influence the number of tests required to obtain adequate confidence in a software component. In the evaluation, both the effect of the shape of the prior distribution as well as one's prior confidence in the software component were investigated. In addition, different choices of prior probability distributions are discussed based on their relevance in a software context. In the second part, ideas on how the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach can be extended to assess systems consisting of multiple software components are given. One of the main challenges when assessing systems consisting of multiple software components is to include dependency aspects in the software reliability models. However, different types of failure dependencies between software components must be modelled differently. Identifying different types of failure dependencies are therefore an important condition for choosing a prior probability distribution, which correctly reflects one's prior belief in the probability for software components failing dependently. In this report, software components include both general in-house software components, as well as pre-developed software components (e.g. COTS, SOUP, etc). (Author)

The short version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale: Its validity, reliability, and relationship to balance impairment and falls in older adults

OpenAIRE

Schepens, Stacey; Goldberg, Allon; Wallace, Melissa

2009-01-01

A shortened version of the ABC 16-item scale (ABC-16), the ABC-6, has been proposed as an alternative balance confidence measure. We investigated whether the ABC-6 is a valid and reliable measure of balance confidence and examined its relationship to balance impairment and falls in older adults. Thirty-five community-dwelling older adults completed the ABC-16, including the six questions of the ABC-6. They also completed the following clinical balance tests: unipedal stance time (UST), functi...

Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

2012-06-01

On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

Methodology for building confidence measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bramson, Aaron L.

2004-04-01

This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.

Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao

2018-01-01

In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…

用Delta法估计多维测验合成信度的置信区间%Estimating the Confidence Interval of Composite Reliability of a Multidimensional Test With the Delta Method

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

叶宝娟; 温忠麟

2012-01-01

Reliability is very important in evaluating the quality of a test. Based on the confirmatory factor analysis, composite reliabili- ty is a good index to estimate the test reliability for general applications. As is well known, point estimate contains limited information a- bout a population parameter and cannot indicate how far it can be from the population parameter. The confidence interval of the parame- ter can provide more information. In evaluating the quality of a test, the confidence interval of composite reliability has received atten- tion in recent years. There are three approaches to estimating the confidence interval of composite reliability of an unidimensional test: the Bootstrap method, the Delta method, and the direct use of the standard error of a software output (e. g. , LISREL). The Bootstrap method pro- vides empirical results of the standard error, and is the most credible method. But it needs data simulation techniques, and its computa- tion process is rather complex. The Delta method computes the standard error of composite reliability by approximate calculation. It is simpler than the Bootstrap method. The LISREL software can directly prompt the standard error, and it is the easiest among the three methods. By simulation study, it had been found that the interval estimates obtained by the Delta method and the Bootstrap method were almost identical, whereas the results obtained by LISREL and by the Bootstrap method were substantially different ( Ye & Wen, 2011 ). The Delta method is recommended when the confidence interval of composite reliability of a unidimensional test is estimated, because the Delta method is simpler than the Bootstrap method. There was little research about how to compute the confidence interval of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. We de- duced a formula by using the Delta method for computing the standard error of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. Based on the standard error, the

Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-06-01

independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2008-12-15

independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

Reliability of Plastic Slabs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thoft-Christensen, Palle

1989-01-01

In the paper it is shown how upper and lower bounds for the reliability of plastic slabs can be determined. For the fundamental case it is shown that optimal bounds of a deterministic and a stochastic analysis are obtained on the basis of the same failure mechanisms and the same stress fields....

Fast and reliable method for computing free-bound emission coefficients for hydrogenic ions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarmiento, A; Canto, J

1985-12-01

An approximate formula for the computation of the free-bound emission coefficient for hydrogenic ions is presented. The approximation is obtained through a manipulation of the (free-bound) Gaunt factor which intentionally distinguish the dependence on frequency from the dependence on temperature and ionic composition. Numerical tests indicate that the derived formula is very precise, fast and easy to use, making the calculation of the free-bound contribution from an ionized region of varying temperature and ionic composition a very simple and time-saving task.

Reliability and validity of the German short version of the Activities specific Balance Confidence (ABC-D6) scale in older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Schott, Nadja

2014-01-01

The Activities specific Balance Confidence (ABC) is a questionnaire which was developed to assess falls-associated self-efficacy. The aim of this study was to evaluate reliability and validity of the German abbreviated 6-item version of the ABC scores in community-dwelling older people. The study sample included 384 subjects (age 71.1 ± 9.7). In order to determine the psychometric properties, reliability and validity were assessed through administration of the German adaptation of the ABC-D16 to participants twice, 10 days apart, and comparison of the ABC-D16 and the ABC-D6 with functional measures of balance and mobility (one-leg stance; 10 m walk; TUG; Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale (FAB)), physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE)), physical fitness (30s arm curl, 30s chair stand, 6 min walk), cognition (Trail-Making-Test (TMT)), falls status, and quality of life (SF36). Factor analyses suggested a 1-factor solution for the ABC-D6 scale (explained variance 79.8%). Internal consistency (.95) and test-retest reliability (.98) for the ABC-D6 scores were excellent. Scores on the ABC-D6 were significantly lower than on the ABC-D16, but ABC-D16 and ABC-D6 scores were highly correlated (.94). There was an increasing difference in the ABC-scores between men and women with increasing age. Fallers reported lower balance confidence than non-fallers. The ABC-D6 score significantly correlated with functional measures of balance and mobility, physical activity, physical fitness, cognition, and quality of life (-.698valid instrument to asses falls-associated self-efficacy and may be used in future research projects and clinical trials. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

2014-05-01

In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical differences between Guttman's reliability coefficients and the GLB

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterwijk, P.R.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.; van der Ark, L.A.; Bolt, D.M; Wang, W.-C.; Douglas, J.A.; Wiberg, M.

2016-01-01

For samples smaller than 1000 and tests longer than ten items, the greatest lower bound (GLB) to the reliability is known to be biased and not recommended as a method to estimate test-score reliability. As a first step in finding alternative lower bounds under these conditions, we investigated the

A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

2014-01-01

Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

2014-01-01

Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

A fast and reliable method for computing free-bound emission coefficients for hydrogenic ions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarmiento, A.; Canto, J.

1985-01-01

An approximate formula for the computation of the free-bound emission coefficient for hydrogenic ions is presented. The approximation is obtained through a manipulation of the (free-bound) Gaunt factor which intentionally distinguish the dependence on frequency from the dependence on temperature and ionic composition. Numerical tests indicate that the derived formula is very precise, fast and easy to use, making the calculation of the free-bound contribution from an ionized region of varying temperature and ionic composition a very simple and time-saving task. (author)

Development, validity and reliability testing of the East Midlands Evaluation Tool (EMET) for measuring impacts on trainees' confidence and competence following end of life care training.

Science.gov (United States)

Whittaker, B; Parry, R; Bird, L; Watson, S; Faull, C

2017-02-02

To develop, test and validate a versatile questionnaire, the East Midlands Evaluation Tool (EMET), for measuring effects of end of life care training events on trainees' self-reported confidence and competence. A paper-based questionnaire was designed on the basis of the English Department of Health's core competences for end of life care, with sections for completion pretraining, immediately post-training and also for longer term follow-up. Preliminary versions were field tested at 55 training events delivered by 13 organisations to 1793 trainees working in diverse health and social care backgrounds. Iterative rounds of development aimed to maximise relevance to events and trainees. Internal consistency was assessed by calculating interitem correlations on questionnaire responses during field testing. Content validity was assessed via qualitative content analysis of (1) responses to questionnaires completed by field tester trainers and (2) field notes from a workshop with a separate cohort of experienced trainers. Test-retest reliability was assessed via repeat administration to a cohort of student nurses. The EMET comprises 27 items with Likert-scaled responses supplemented with questions seeking free-text responses. It measures changes in self-assessed confidence and competence on 5 subscales: communication skills; assessment and care planning; symptom management; advance care planning; overarching values and knowledge. Test-retest reliability was found to be good, as was internal consistency: the questions successfully assess different aspects of the same underlying concept. The EMET provides a time-efficient, reliable and flexible means of evaluating effects of training on self-reported confidence and competence in the key elements of end of life care. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Psychometric properties of the communication Confidence Rating Scale for Aphasia (CCRSA): phase 1.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherney, Leora R; Babbitt, Edna M; Semik, Patrick; Heinemann, Allen W

2011-01-01

Confidence is a construct that has not been explored previously in aphasia research. We developed the Communication Confidence Rating Scale for Aphasia (CCRSA) to assess confidence in communicating in a variety of activities and evaluated its psychometric properties using rating scale (Rasch) analysis. The CCRSA was administered to 21 individuals with aphasia before and after participation in a computer-based language therapy study. Person reliability of the 8-item CCRSA was .77. The 5-category rating scale demonstrated monotonic increases in average measures from low to high ratings. However, one item ("I follow news, sports, stories on TV/movies") misfit the construct defined by the other items (mean square infit = 1.69, item-measure correlation = .41). Deleting this item improved reliability to .79; the 7 remaining items demonstrated excellent fit to the underlying construct, although there was a modest ceiling effect in this sample. Pre- to posttreatment changes on the 7-item CCRSA measure were statistically significant using a paired samples t test. Findings support the reliability and sensitivity of the CCRSA in assessing participants' self-report of communication confidence. Further evaluation of communication confidence is required with larger and more diverse samples.

Pocket Handbook on Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

1975-09-01

exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

1985-08-01

Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

Solving binary-state multi-objective reliability redundancy allocation series-parallel problem using efficient epsilon-constraint, multi-start partial bound enumeration algorithm, and DEA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalili-Damghani, Kaveh; Amiri, Maghsoud

2012-01-01

In this paper, a procedure based on efficient epsilon-constraint method and data envelopment analysis (DEA) is proposed for solving binary-state multi-objective reliability redundancy allocation series-parallel problem (MORAP). In first module, a set of qualified non-dominated solutions on Pareto front of binary-state MORAP is generated using an efficient epsilon-constraint method. In order to test the quality of generated non-dominated solutions in this module, a multi-start partial bound enumeration algorithm is also proposed for MORAP. The performance of both procedures is compared using different metrics on well-known benchmark instance. The statistical analysis represents that not only the proposed efficient epsilon-constraint method outperform the multi-start partial bound enumeration algorithm but also it improves the founded upper bound of benchmark instance. Then, in second module, a DEA model is supplied to prune the generated non-dominated solutions of efficient epsilon-constraint method. This helps reduction of non-dominated solutions in a systematic manner and eases the decision making process for practical implementations. - Highlights: ► A procedure based on efficient epsilon-constraint method and DEA was proposed for solving MORAP. ► The performance of proposed procedure was compared with a multi-start PBEA. ► Methods were statistically compared using multi-objective metrics.

Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2017-05-09

Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning

Science.gov (United States)

Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2017-01-01

Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014

Energy condition bounds and their confrontation with supernovae data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima, M. P.; Vitenti, S.; Reboucas, M. J.

2008-01-01

The energy conditions play an important role in the understanding of several properties of the Universe, including the current accelerating expansion phase and the possible existence of the so-called phantom fields. We show that the integrated bounds provided by the energy conditions on cosmological observables such as the distance modulus μ(z) and the lookback time t L (z) are not sufficient (or necessary) to ensure the local fulfillment of the energy conditions, making explicit the limitation of these bounds in the confrontation with observational data. We recast the energy conditions as bounds on the deceleration and normalized Hubble parameters, obtaining new bounds which are necessary and sufficient for the local fulfillment of the energy conditions. A statistical confrontation, with 1σ-3σ confidence levels, between our bounds and supernovae data from the gold and combined samples is made for the recent past. Our analyses indicate, with 3σ confidence levels, the fulfillment of both the weak energy condition (WEC) and dominant energy condition (DEC) for z≤1 and z < or approx. 0.8, respectively. In addition, they suggest a possible recent violation of the null energy condition (NEC) with 3σ, i.e. a very recent phase of superacceleration. Our analyses also show the possibility of violation of the strong energy condition (SEC) with 3σ in the recent past (z≤1), but interestingly the q(z)-best-fit curve crosses the SEC--fulfillment divider at z≅0.67, which is a value very close to the beginning of the epoch of cosmic acceleration predicted by the standard concordance flat ΛCDM scenario.

2017 NREL Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-08-15

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology -- both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Overcoming some limitations of imprecise reliability models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor

2011-01-01

The application of imprecise reliability models is often hindered by the rapid growth in imprecision that occurs when many components constitute a system and by the fact that time to failure is bounded from above. The latter results in the necessity to explicitly introduce an upper bound on time ...

Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-09-01

The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

Reliability and safety engineering

CERN Document Server

Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

2016-01-01

Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

Structural systems reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frangopol, D.

1975-01-01

For an exact evaluation of the reliability of a structure it appears necessary to determine the distribution densities of the loads and resistances and to calculate the correlation coefficients between loads and between resistances. These statistical characteristics can be obtained only on the basis of a long activity period. In case that such studies are missing the statistical properties formulated here give upper and lower bounds of the reliability. (orig./HP) [de

Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Xueping

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

Science.gov (United States)

Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

1982-01-01

One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

Reliability analysis of Diesel Generator power supply system of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sharma, Pramod Kumar, E-mail: pramodks@igcar.gov.in; Bhuvana, V.; Ramakrishnan, M.

2016-12-15

Highlights: • The unavailability of DG success is 4.75E−3 for 2/4 and 1.47E−3 for 1/4. • Modeling includes sub systems like CB, SSWS, Fuel oil system & 220 V DC. • DG-FR, DG-FR-CCF and DG maintenance is major contributors of DG unavailability. • Uncertainty analysis has been carried out through Monte Carlo simulations. • Sensitivity analysis identifies DG mechanical FR as most sensitive part. - Abstract: The unavailability of Diesel Generator power supply system has been evaluated using Fault tree method with ISOGRAPH reliability software and is found to be 4.75E−3 for 2/4 (DG success) and 1.47E−3 for 1/4 (DG success). Common cause failures contribute significantly to the unavailability of the system. Statistical analysis indicates that the DG unavailability is uncertain by Error Factor 4.4 (90% confidence bound) for 2 out of 4 DG system (system success) and by Error Factor 4.1 (90% confidence bound) for 1 out of 4 DG system (system success). Support systems namely Safety related service water system, Fuel oil system and circuit breaker control power supply dependency have been modeled. Results of importance analysis and sensitivity study are used to identify significant contributors to unavailability. DG fails to run, DG fails to run due to CCF and DG maintenance out of service is identified as dominant and important contributors of DG unavailability. Uncertainty analysis has been carried out through Monte Carlo simulations.

Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

Science.gov (United States)

Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

2016-01-01

A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

Exact reliability formula and bounds for general k-out-of-n systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koucky, Miroslav

2003-01-01

The paper deals with reliability of general k-out-of-n systems whose component failures need not be independent and identically distributed. The result is an exact closed form reliability formula which is based on Feller's result. The formula is efficient and easy to use for manual and computer computations. The approximations for the system reliability are given and are useful when dealing with large systems. Two examples illustrate the use of the results

Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

2015-10-01

Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

2015 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshops

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-09-14

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

2016 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-09-07

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

The confidence in diabetes self-care scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Der Ven, Nicole C W; Weinger, Katie; Yi, Joyce

2003-01-01

evaluated in Dutch (n = 151) and U.S. (n = 190) outpatients with type 1 diabetes. In addition to the CIDS scale, assessment included HbA(1c), emotional distress, fear of hypoglycemia, self-esteem, anxiety, depression, and self-care behavior. The Dutch sample completed additional measures on perceived burden......OBJECTIVE: To examine psychometric properties of the Confidence in Diabetes Self-Care (CIDS) scale, a newly developed instrument assessing diabetes-specific self-efficacy in Dutch and U.S. patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Reliability and validity of the CIDS scale were...... and importance of self-care. Test-retest reliability was established in a second Dutch sample (n = 62). RESULTS: Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86 for Dutch patients and 0.90 U.S. patients) and test-retest reliability (Spearman's r = 0.85, P

Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirjana Čižmešija

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

2015-01-01

with a newfound respect for their suppliers, and it will allow manufacturers to finally address true root causes that can lead to a marked increase in product confidence. In the past decade, pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers have increased their focus on controlling and managing the performance of their suppliers in an effort to improve the confidence of the materials going into the final marketed products and to improve patient and customer confidence in final product reliability and safety. Concerned that product confidence has not improved, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials. Through this initiative, data generated has revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. Product confidence can be improved by shifting the focus from controlling supplier practices to controlling the practices of the manufacturers themselves. © PDA, Inc. 2015.

Evidence for a confidence-accuracy relationship in memory for same- and cross-race faces.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Thao B; Pezdek, Kathy; Wixted, John T

2017-12-01

Discrimination accuracy is usually higher for same- than for cross-race faces, a phenomenon known as the cross-race effect (CRE). According to prior research, the CRE occurs because memories for same- and cross-race faces rely on qualitatively different processes. However, according to a continuous dual-process model of recognition memory, memories that rely on qualitatively different processes do not differ in recognition accuracy when confidence is equated. Thus, although there are differences in overall same- and cross-race discrimination accuracy, confidence-specific accuracy (i.e., recognition accuracy at a particular level of confidence) may not differ. We analysed datasets from four recognition memory studies on same- and cross-race faces to test this hypothesis. Confidence ratings reliably predicted recognition accuracy when performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but not when performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Furthermore, at each level of confidence, confidence-specific accuracy for same- and cross-race faces did not significantly differ when overall performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but significantly differed when overall performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Thus, under certain conditions, high-confidence same-race and cross-race identifications may be equally reliable.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the ²³⁵U(n, f) and ²³⁹Pu (n, f) cross sections.

Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

2002-01-01

We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

The Validity and Reliability Characteristics of the M-BACK Questionnaire to Assess the Barriers, Attitudes, Confidence, and Knowledge of Mental Health Staff Regarding Metabolic Health of Mental Health Service Users

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Watkins

2017-12-01

Full Text Available BackgroundAddressing the burden of poor physical health and the subsequent gap in life expectancy experienced by people with mental illness is a major priority in mental health services. To equip mental health staff with the competence to deliver evidence-based interventions, targeted staff training regarding metabolic health is required. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of staff training regarding metabolic health, we aimed to develop a succinct measure to determine the barriers, attitudes, confidence, and knowledge of health practitioners through the development and test–retest reliability of the Metabolic-Barriers, Attitudes, Confidence, and Knowledge Questionnaire (M-BACK.MethodsThe M-BACK questionnaire was developed to evaluate the impact of specialized training in metabolic health care for mental health nurses. Content of the M-BACK was developed from a literature review and refined by an expert review panel and validated via a piloting process. To determine the test–retest reliability of the M-BACK, 31 nursing students recruited from the University of Notre Dame, Sydney completed the questionnaire on two separate occasions, 7 days apart. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs were calculated for the total score, as well as each of the four domains.ResultsPilot testing was undertaken with a sample of 106 mental health nurses with a mean age 48.2, ranging from 24 to 63 years of age, who participated in six training courses. Questionnaire development resulted in a 16-item instrument, with each item is scored on a five-point Likert scale ranging from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree.” Test–retest reliability of the M-BACK was completed by 30 of 31 nursing students recruited, ICCs ranged from 0.62 to 0.96.ConclusionThe M-BACK is a reliable measure of the key elements of practitioner perceptions of barriers, and their knowledge, attitudes, and confidence regarding metabolic monitoring in people with mental

SAS and SPSS macros to calculate standardized Cronbach's alpha using the upper bound of the phi coefficient for dichotomous items.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Wei; Chou, Chih-Ping; Stacy, Alan W; Ma, Huiyan; Unger, Jennifer; Gallaher, Peggy

2007-02-01

Cronbach's a is widely used in social science research to estimate the internal consistency of reliability of a measurement scale. However, when items are not strictly parallel, the Cronbach's a coefficient provides a lower-bound estimate of true reliability, and this estimate may be further biased downward when items are dichotomous. The estimation of standardized Cronbach's a for a scale with dichotomous items can be improved by using the upper bound of coefficient phi. SAS and SPSS macros have been developed in this article to obtain standardized Cronbach's a via this method. The simulation analysis showed that Cronbach's a from upper-bound phi might be appropriate for estimating the real reliability when standardized Cronbach's a is problematic.

Reliability and mechanical design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemaire, Maurice

1997-01-01

A lot of results in mechanical design are obtained from a modelisation of physical reality and from a numerical solution which would lead to the evaluation of needs and resources. The goal of the reliability analysis is to evaluate the confidence which it is possible to grant to the chosen design through the calculation of a probability of failure linked to the retained scenario. Two types of analysis are proposed: the sensitivity analysis and the reliability analysis. Approximate methods are applicable to problems related to reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS)

Kodiak: An Implementation Framework for Branch and Bound Algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Andrew P.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Markevicius, Mantas

2015-01-01

Recursive branch and bound algorithms are often used to refine and isolate solutions to several classes of global optimization problems. A rigorous computation framework for the solution of systems of equations and inequalities involving nonlinear real arithmetic over hyper-rectangular variable and parameter domains is presented. It is derived from a generic branch and bound algorithm that has been formally verified, and utilizes self-validating enclosure methods, namely interval arithmetic and, for polynomials and rational functions, Bernstein expansion. Since bounds computed by these enclosure methods are sound, this approach may be used reliably in software verification tools. Advantage is taken of the partial derivatives of the constraint functions involved in the system, firstly to reduce the branching factor by the use of bisection heuristics and secondly to permit the computation of bifurcation sets for systems of ordinary differential equations. The associated software development, Kodiak, is presented, along with examples of three different branch and bound problem types it implements.

HiggsBounds-4. Improved tests of extended Higgs sectors against exclusion bounds from LEP, the Tevatron and the LHC

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bechtle, Philip [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Physikalisches Inst.; Heinemeyer, Sven [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Santander (Spain); Staal, Oscar [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physics; Stefaniak, Tim; Williams, Karina E. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Physikalisches Inst.; Bonn Univ. (Germany). Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics; Weiglein, Georg [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Brein, Oliver

2013-12-15

We describe the new developments in version 4 of the public computer code HiggsBounds. HiggsBounds is a tool to test models with arbitrary Higgs sectors, containing both neutral and charged Higgs bosons, against the published exclusion bounds from Higgs searches at the LEP, Tevatron and LHC experiments. From the model predictions for the Higgs masses, branching ratios, production cross sections and total decay widths - which are specified by the user in the input for the program - the code calculates the predicted signal rates for the search channels considered in the experimental data. The signal rates are compared to the expected and observed cross section limits from the Higgs searches to determine whether a point in the model parameter space is excluded at 95% confidence level. In this paper we present a modification of the HiggsBounds main algorithm that extends the exclusion test in order to ensure that it provides useful results in the presence of one or more significant excesses in the data, corresponding to potential Higgs signals. We also describe a new method to test whether the limits from an experimental search performed under certain model assumptions can be applied to a different theoretical model. Further developments discussed here include a framework to take into account theoretical uncertainties on the Higgs mass predictions, and the possibility to obtain the {chi}{sup 2} likelihood of Higgs exclusion limits from LEP. Extensions to the user subroutines from earlier versions of HiggsBounds are described. The new features are demonstrated by additional example programs.

HiggsBounds-4. Improved tests of extended Higgs sectors against exclusion bounds from LEP, the Tevatron and the LHC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bechtle, Philip; Staal, Oscar; Brein, Oliver

2013-12-01

We describe the new developments in version 4 of the public computer code HiggsBounds. HiggsBounds is a tool to test models with arbitrary Higgs sectors, containing both neutral and charged Higgs bosons, against the published exclusion bounds from Higgs searches at the LEP, Tevatron and LHC experiments. From the model predictions for the Higgs masses, branching ratios, production cross sections and total decay widths - which are specified by the user in the input for the program - the code calculates the predicted signal rates for the search channels considered in the experimental data. The signal rates are compared to the expected and observed cross section limits from the Higgs searches to determine whether a point in the model parameter space is excluded at 95% confidence level. In this paper we present a modification of the HiggsBounds main algorithm that extends the exclusion test in order to ensure that it provides useful results in the presence of one or more significant excesses in the data, corresponding to potential Higgs signals. We also describe a new method to test whether the limits from an experimental search performed under certain model assumptions can be applied to a different theoretical model. Further developments discussed here include a framework to take into account theoretical uncertainties on the Higgs mass predictions, and the possibility to obtain the χ 2 likelihood of Higgs exclusion limits from LEP. Extensions to the user subroutines from earlier versions of HiggsBounds are described. The new features are demonstrated by additional example programs.

Characterizing reliability in a product/process design-assurance program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerscher, W.J. III [Delphi Energy and Engine Management Systems, Flint, MI (United States); Booker, J.M.; Bement, T.R.; Meyer, M.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

1997-10-01

Over the years many advancing techniques in the area of reliability engineering have surfaced in the military sphere of influence, and one of these techniques is Reliability Growth Testing (RGT). Private industry has reviewed RGT as part of the solution to their reliability concerns, but many practical considerations have slowed its implementation. It`s objective is to demonstrate the reliability requirement of a new product with a specified confidence. This paper speaks directly to that objective but discusses a somewhat different approach to achieving it. Rather than conducting testing as a continuum and developing statistical confidence bands around the results, this Bayesian updating approach starts with a reliability estimate characterized by large uncertainty and then proceeds to reduce the uncertainty by folding in fresh information in a Bayesian framework.

Bounds on Minimum Energy per Bit for Optical Wireless Relay Channels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. D. Raza

2014-09-01

Full Text Available An optical wireless relay channel (OWRC is the classical three node network consisting of source, re- lay and destination nodes with optical wireless connectivity. The channel law is assumed Gaussian. This paper studies the bounds on minimum energy per bit required for reliable communication over an OWRC. It is shown that capacity of an OWRC is concave and energy per bit is monotonically increasing in square of the peak optical signal power, and consequently the minimum energy per bit is inversely pro- portional to the square root of asymptotic capacity at low signal to noise ratio. This has been used to develop upper and lower bound on energy per bit as a function of peak signal power, mean to peak power ratio, and variance of channel noise. The upper and lower bounds on minimum energy per bit derived in this paper correspond respectively to the decode and forward lower bound and the min-max cut upper bound on OWRC capacity

Method for assessing the reliability of molecular diagnostics based on multiplexed SERS-coded nanoparticles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Y Leigh

Full Text Available Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS nanoparticles have been engineered to generate unique fingerprint spectra and are potentially useful as bright contrast agents for molecular diagnostics. One promising strategy for biomedical diagnostics and imaging is to functionalize various particle types ("flavors", each emitting a unique spectral signature, to target a large multiplexed panel of molecular biomarkers. While SERS particles emit narrow spectral features that allow them to be easily separable under ideal conditions, the presence of competing noise sources and background signals such as detector noise, laser background, and autofluorescence confounds the reliability of demultiplexing algorithms. Results obtained during time-constrained in vivo imaging experiments may not be reproducible or accurate. Therefore, our goal is to provide experimentalists with a metric that may be monitored to enforce a desired bound on accuracy within a user-defined confidence level. We have defined a spectral reliability index (SRI, based on the output of a direct classical least-squares (DCLS demultiplexing routine, which provides a measure of the reliability of the computed nanoparticle concentrations and ratios. We present simulations and experiments to demonstrate the feasibility of this strategy, which can potentially be utilized for a range of instruments and biomedical applications involving multiplexed SERS nanoparticles.

Development in structural systems reliability theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murotsu, Y

1986-07-01

This paper is concerned with two topics on structural systems reliability theory. One covers automatic generation of failure mode equations, identifications of stochastically dominant failure modes, and reliability assessment of redundant structures. Reduced stiffness matrixes and equivalent nodal forces representing the failed elements are introduced for expressing the safety of the elements, using a matrix method. Dominant failure modes are systematically selected by a branch-and-bound technique and heuristic operations. The other discusses the various optimum design problems based on reliability concept. Those problems are interpreted through a solution to a multi-objective optimization problem.

Development in structural systems reliability theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murotsu, Y.

1986-01-01

This paper is concerned with two topics on structural systems reliability theory. One covers automatic generation of failure mode equations, identifications of stochastically dominant failure modes, and reliability assessment of redundant structures. Reduced stiffness matrixes and equivalent nodal forces representing the failed elements are introduced for expressing the safety of the elements, using a matrix method. Dominant failure modes are systematically selected by a branch-and-bound technique and heuristic operations. The other discusses the various optimum design problems based on reliability concept. Those problems are interpreted through a solution to a multi-objective optimization problem. (orig.)

Catchment source contributions to the sediment-bound organic matter degrading salmonid spawning gravels in a lowland river, southern England

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, A.L.; Williams, L.J.; Zhang, Y.S.; Marius, M.; Dungait, J.A.J.; Smallman, D.J.; Dixon, E.R.; Stringfellow, A.; Sear, D.A.; Jones, J.I.; Naden, P.S.

2013-01-01

The ingress of particulate material into freshwater spawning substrates is thought to be contributing to the declining success of salmonids reported over recent years for many rivers. Accordingly, the need for reliable information on the key sources of the sediment problem has progressed up the management agenda. Whilst previous work has focussed on apportioning the sources of minerogenic fine sediment degrading spawning habitats, there remains a need to develop procedures for generating corresponding information for the potentially harmful sediment-bound organic matter that represents an overlooked component of interstitial sediment. A source tracing procedure based on composite signatures combining bulk stable 13 C and 15 N isotope values with organic molecular structures detected using near infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy was therefore used to assess the primary sources of sediment-bound organic matter sampled from artificial spawning redds. Composite signatures were selected using a combination of the Kruskal–Wallis H-test, principal component analysis and GA-driven discriminant function analysis. Interstitial sediment samples were collected using time-integrating basket traps which were inserted at the start of the salmonid spawning season and extracted in conjunction with critical phases of fish development (eyeing, hatch, emergence, late spawning). Over the duration of these four basket extractions, the overall relative frequency-weighted average median (± 95% confidence limits) source contributions to the interstitial sediment-bound organic matter were estimated to be in the order: instream decaying vegetation (39 ± road verges > septic tanks > farm manures

Inference on the reliability of Weibull distribution with multiply Type-I censored data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Jiang, Ping; Guo, Bo

2016-01-01

In this paper, we focus on the reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring, which is a general form of Type-I censoring. In multiply Type-I censoring in this study, all units in the life testing experiment are terminated at different times. Reliability estimation with the maximum likelihood estimate of Weibull parameters is conducted. With the delta method and Fisher information, we propose a confidence interval for reliability and compare it with the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap confidence interval. Furthermore, a scenario involving a few expert judgments of reliability is considered. A method is developed to generate extended estimations of reliability according to the original judgments and transform them to estimations of Weibull parameters. With Bayes theory and the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method, a posterior sample is obtained to compute the Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the proposed confidence interval outperforms the bootstrap one. The Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability are both satisfactory. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods. - Highlights: • We focus on reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring. • The proposed confidence interval for the reliability is superior after comparison. • The Bayes estimates with a few expert judgements on reliability are satisfactory. • We specify the cases where the MLEs do not exist and present methods to remedy it. • The distribution of estimate of reliability should be used for accurate estimate.

Observational Bounds on Cosmic Doomsday

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shmakova, Marina

2003-07-11

Recently it was found, in a broad class of models, that the dark energy density may change its sign during the evolution of the universe. This may lead to a global collapse of the universe within the time t{sub c} {approx} 10{sup 10}-10{sup 11} years. Our goal is to find what bounds on the future lifetime of the universe can be placed by the next generation of cosmological observations. As an example, we investigate the simplest model of dark energy with a linear potential V({phi}) = V{sub 0}(1 + {alpha}{phi}). This model can describe the present stage of acceleration of the universe if {alpha} is small enough. However, eventually the field {phi} rolls down, V({phi}) becomes negative, and the universe collapses. The existing observational data indicate that the universe described by this model will collapse not earlier than t{sub c} {approx_equal} 10 billion years from the present moment. We show that the data from SNAP and Planck satellites may extend the bound on the ''doomsday'' time to tc 40 billion years at the 95% confidence level.

Psychometric Properties of Persian Translated Version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC in Arak Community-dwelling Older Adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daryoush Khajavi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Balance deficiency, falls and fear of fall are important problems that can resulted in reversed health outcomes including decreased quality of life. The purpose of this study was surveying factor structure, validation, and reliability determination of Persian translated version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale in community-dwelling older adults of Arak city. Materials and Methods: Research method was descriptive in form of psychometry. The statistic population was older adults of Arak in year 2012 and 308 subjects with mean age 69.38 years were selected availably. Data were collected by Persian translated version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence that is a 16-item scale and evaluates balance confidence in activities of daily living. Data were analyzed by Exploratory Factor Analysis. Test-retest and internal reliability were calculated by Pearson correlation coefficient and Chronbach’s Alpha. Data were analyzed with SPSS-16. Results: The findings resulted in extraction of one factor with eigenvalue over one that explained 82.89% of total variance. Test-retest reliability between 1 to 4 weeks and internal reliability (Chronbach’s alpha were 0.82 and 0.98, respectively. Gutmann split-half correlation coefficient and intra-class correlation coefficient were calculated 95% and 85%, respectively. Conclusion: Persian translated version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC-F is a valid and reliable tool for Iranian community-dwelling older adults that can be used in clinical and research purpose.

Measures of differences in reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doksum, K.A.

1975-01-01

Measures of differences in reliability of two systems are considered in the scale model, location-scale model, and a nonparametric model. In each model, estimates and confidence intervals are given and some of their properties discussed

Reliable computation from contextual correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Oestereich, André L.; Galvão, Ernesto F.

2017-12-01

An operational approach to the study of computation based on correlations considers black boxes with one-bit inputs and outputs, controlled by a limited classical computer capable only of performing sums modulo-two. In this setting, it was shown that noncontextual correlations do not provide any extra computational power, while contextual correlations were found to be necessary for the deterministic evaluation of nonlinear Boolean functions. Here we investigate the requirements for reliable computation in this setting; that is, the evaluation of any Boolean function with success probability bounded away from 1 /2 . We show that bipartite CHSH quantum correlations suffice for reliable computation. We also prove that an arbitrarily small violation of a multipartite Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger noncontextuality inequality also suffices for reliable computation.

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2010: February 18-19, 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, J.

2013-11-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2011: February 16-17, 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, S.

2013-11-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2013: February 26-27, 2013

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, S.

2013-10-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2014: February 25-26, 2014

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, S.

2014-02-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

Integration of multiple biological features yields high confidence human protein interactome.

Science.gov (United States)

Karagoz, Kubra; Sevimoglu, Tuba; Arga, Kazim Yalcin

2016-08-21

The biological function of a protein is usually determined by its physical interaction with other proteins. Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are identified through various experimental methods and are stored in curated databases. The noisiness of the existing PPI data is evident, and it is essential that a more reliable data is generated. Furthermore, the selection of a set of PPIs at different confidence levels might be necessary for many studies. Although different methodologies were introduced to evaluate the confidence scores for binary interactions, a highly reliable, almost complete PPI network of Homo sapiens is not proposed yet. The quality and coverage of human protein interactome need to be improved to be used in various disciplines, especially in biomedicine. In the present work, we propose an unsupervised statistical approach to assign confidence scores to PPIs of H. sapiens. To achieve this goal PPI data from six different databases were collected and a total of 295,288 non-redundant interactions between 15,950 proteins were acquired. The present scoring system included the context information that was assigned to PPIs derived from eight biological attributes. A high confidence network, which included 147,923 binary interactions between 13,213 proteins, had scores greater than the cutoff value of 0.80, for which sensitivity, specificity, and coverage were 94.5%, 80.9%, and 82.8%, respectively. We compared the present scoring method with others for evaluation. Reducing the noise inherent in experimental PPIs via our scoring scheme increased the accuracy significantly. As it was demonstrated through the assessment of process and cancer subnetworks, this study allows researchers to construct and analyze context-specific networks via valid PPI sets and one can easily achieve subnetworks around proteins of interest at a specified confidence level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy logic algorithm to assign confidence levels to heart and respiratory rate time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, J; McKenna, T M; Gribok, A; Reifman, J; Beidleman, B A; Tharion, W J

2008-01-01

We have developed a fuzzy logic-based algorithm to qualify the reliability of heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) vital-sign time-series data by assigning a confidence level to the data points while they are measured as a continuous data stream. The algorithm's membership functions are derived from physiology-based performance limits and mass-assignment-based data-driven characteristics of the signals. The assigned confidence levels are based on the reliability of each HR and RR measurement as well as the relationship between them. The algorithm was tested on HR and RR data collected from subjects undertaking a range of physical activities, and it showed acceptable performance in detecting four types of faults that result in low-confidence data points (receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve ranged from 0.67 (SD 0.04) to 0.83 (SD 0.03), mean and standard deviation (SD) over all faults). The algorithm is sensitive to noise in the raw HR and RR data and will flag many data points as low confidence if the data are noisy; prior processing of the data to reduce noise allows identification of only the most substantial faults. Depending on how HR and RR data are processed, the algorithm can be applied as a tool to evaluate sensor performance or to qualify HR and RR time-series data in terms of their reliability before use in automated decision-assist systems

Circuit lower bounds in bounded arithmetics

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Pich, Ján

2015-01-01

Roč. 166, č. 1 (2015), s. 29-45 ISSN 0168-0072 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100190902 Keywords : bounded arithmetic * circuit lower bounds Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.582, year: 2015 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168007214000888

Bayesian nonparametric system reliability using sets of priors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Walter, G.M.; Aslett, L.J.M.; Coolen, F.P.A.

2016-01-01

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through bounds on the functioning probability. Given component level test

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2012: February 28 - March 1, 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurtz, S.

2013-11-01

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L

2017-05-01

The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).

Impact of a critical care postgraduate certificate course on nurses' self-reported competence and confidence: A quasi-experimental study.

Science.gov (United States)

Baxter, Rebecca; Edvardsson, David

2018-06-01

Postgraduate education is said to support the development of nurses' professional competence and confidence, essential to the delivery of safe and effective care. However, there is a shortness of empirical evidence to demonstrate an increase to nurses' self-reported confidence and competence on completion of critical care postgraduate certificate-level education. To explore the impact of a critical care postgraduate certificate course on nurses' self-reported competence and confidence. To explore the psychometric properties and performance of the Critical Care Competence and Confidence Questionnaire. A quasi-experimental pre/post-test design. A total population sample of nurses completing a critical care postgraduate certificate course at an Australian University. The Critical Care Competence and Confidence Questionnaire was developed for this study to measure nurses' self-reported competence and confidence at baseline and follow up. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to explore sample characteristics and changes between baseline and follow-up. Reliability of the questionnaire was explored using Cronbach's Alpha and item-total correlations. There was a statistically significant increase in competence and confidence between baseline and follow-up across all questionnaire domains. Satisfactory reliability estimates were found for the questionnaire. Completion of a critical care postgraduate certificate course significantly increased nurses' perceived competence and confidence. The Critical Care Competence and Confidence Questionnaire was found to be psychometrically sound for measuring nurses' self-reported competence and confidence. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A double-loop adaptive sampling approach for sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zequn; Wang, Pingfeng

2015-01-01

Dynamic reliability measures reliability of an engineered system considering time-variant operation condition and component deterioration. Due to high computational costs, conducting dynamic reliability analysis at an early system design stage remains challenging. This paper presents a confidence-based meta-modeling approach, referred to as double-loop adaptive sampling (DLAS), for efficient sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis. The DLAS builds a Gaussian process (GP) model sequentially to approximate extreme system responses over time, so that Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be employed directly to estimate dynamic reliability. A generic confidence measure is developed to evaluate the accuracy of dynamic reliability estimation while using the MCS approach based on developed GP models. A double-loop adaptive sampling scheme is developed to efficiently update the GP model in a sequential manner, by considering system input variables and time concurrently in two sampling loops. The model updating process using the developed sampling scheme can be terminated once the user defined confidence target is satisfied. The developed DLAS approach eliminates computationally expensive sensitivity analysis process, thus substantially improves the efficiency of dynamic reliability analysis. Three case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy of DLAS for dynamic reliability analysis. - Highlights: • Developed a novel adaptive sampling approach for dynamic reliability analysis. • POD Developed a new metric to quantify the accuracy of dynamic reliability estimation. • Developed a new sequential sampling scheme to efficiently update surrogate models. • Three case studies were used to demonstrate the efficacy of the new approach. • Case study results showed substantially enhanced efficiency with high accuracy

Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, David

2013-10-12

A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

The reliability of prayer-based self-efficacy scale to assess self-confidence of Muslims with low back pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Obaidi, Saud; Wall, James C; Mulekar, Madhuri S; Al-Mutairie, Rebecca

2012-06-01

Low back pain (LBP) may challenge an individual's self-confidence to perform usual daily activities such as Islamic daily prayer. Existing self-efficacy scales may not be appropriate to assess individual's self-confidence to perform Islamic prayers. This study aimed to develop a scale to assess self-confidence to prepare and perform Islamic prayer in the presence of LBP, the Islamic Prayer-based Self-efficacy Scale (IpbSeS), and to determine its consistency. The IpbSeS consists of three parts: pre-prayer preparation, getting to and from the mosque, and positions and movements during prayer. On a scale of 0 to 6, 0 indicates 'not at all confident' and 6 'fully confident'. Sixty individuals with LBP gave their responses on two different visits. Pain intensity was assessed by the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and the pain intensity changes were assessed using a seven-point global patient rating scale. Descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficient, Wilcoxon test and t-test were used in the analysis (alpha set at 0.05). VAS scores did not differ significantly between visits. No association was found between VAS and age (r = 0.039, p = 0.77) and between VAS and body mass index (BMI; r = 0.06, p = 0. 67). All 28 questions have consistent responses on two visits (0.75 ≤ r ≤ 0.99, p Muslims in the presence of LBP to pray. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Graphs and matroids weighted in a bounded incline algebra.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Ling-Xia; Zhang, Bei

2014-01-01

Firstly, for a graph weighted in a bounded incline algebra (or called a dioid), a longest path problem (LPP, for short) is presented, which can be considered the uniform approach to the famous shortest path problem, the widest path problem, and the most reliable path problem. The solutions for LPP and related algorithms are given. Secondly, for a matroid weighted in a linear matroid, the maximum independent set problem is studied.

Cytoskeleton and Cytoskeleton-Bound RNA Visualization in Frog and Insect Oocytes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kloc, Malgorzata; Bilinski, Szczepan; Kubiak, Jacek Z

2016-01-01

The majority of oocyte functions involves and depends on the cytoskeletal elements, which include microtubules and actin and cytokeratin filaments. Various structures and molecules are temporarily or permanently bound to the cytoskeletal elements and their functions rely on cytoskeleton integrity and its timely assembly. Thus the accurate visualization of cytoskeleton is often crucial for studies and analyses of oocyte structure and functions. Here we describe several reliable methods for microtubule and/or microfilaments preservation and visualization in Xenopus oocyte extracts, and in situ in live and fixed insect and frog (Xenopus) oocytes. In addition, we describe visualization of cytoskeleton-bound RNAs using molecular beacons in live Xenopus oocytes.

Energies and bounds from perturbative approximations to the Bloch-Horowitz effective Hamiltonian

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darema-Rogers, F.; Vincent, C.M.

1978-01-01

Bloch-Horowitz perturbation theory is applied to the calculation of approximate energies and model-space eigenvectors, for the solvable large-matrix Hamiltonian H used by Pittel, Vincent, and Vergados. Two types of upper and lower bounds to the energies are discussed: moment-theory bounds, obtained by applying moment theory to the terms of perturbation theory, and norm bounds, derived from the expectation E-bar and variance sigma 2 of H with respect to an eigenvector approximated by nth order perturbation theory (n < or = 6). It is shown that lower bounds cannot be constructed unless some fourth-order quantity is known. The upper bounds are generally stricter than the lower bounds. All of the bounds apply even when back-door intruder states cause perturbation theory to diverge; but they lose their rigor and become ''quasibounds'' when there are physical intruders. The moment-theory and norm lower quasibounds always require estimation of a parameter. For the solvable Hamiltonians, it is shown that this can be done quite reliably, and that the resulting quasibounds are tight enough to have some practical utility. The energy-independent effective interaction V is constructed and its errors are displayed and discussed. Finally, a certain [1/2] pseudo-Pade approximant is empirically shown to give energies with a mean absolute error of less than 0.3 MeV in all cases

Psychometric properties of the Confidence and Trust in Delivery Questionnaire (CTDQ: a pilot study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeschke Elke

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Assessing expecting mother’s opinions prior to birth draws a comprehensive picture for the caregivers about their emotional state and their expectations. Some questionnaires to cover these aspects do exist. This study aims to present the psychometric properties of a new instrument, the Confidence and Trust in Delivery Questionnaire (CDTQ a short but reliable a self-report instrument that focuses on confidence and trust as meaningful dimensions for expectant mothers. Methods A pilot validation study of 221 women 6 weeks before childbirth was conducted in Germany between October 2007 and June 2008. To detect structural relations between the items, factor and reliability analyses were applied to the CTDQ items. Factor analysis was performed by means of principal components analysis and varimax rotation. Internal reliability was assessed by Cronbach’s alpha. External validation was performed using the sense of coherence (SOC scale. Results The CTDQ comprises of 11 items. We found a 4-factor structure. The internal consistency of the whole item pool (Cronbach’s α = 0.79 and the 4 subscales [confidence in labor (α = 0.82; partner’s support (α = 0.62; trust in medical competency (α = 0.68; being informed (α = 0.60] can be regarded as sufficient or even excellent. The 4 factors explained 69.6% of total variance. Except for a high intercorrelation (0.70 between “partner’s support” and “trust in medical competence”, the subscales show low intercorrelations, indicating an adequate independence of the respective subscales. Regarding the external validity we found minor respective moderate correlations with the SOC scale. Conclusions Our data suggest that the CTDQ is a useful instrument to assess confidence and trust in delivery. With 4 clinically relevant dimensions, the CTDQ is now open for further studies in the field of labor.

Perceptron Mistake Bounds

OpenAIRE

Mohri, Mehryar; Rostamizadeh, Afshin

2013-01-01

We present a brief survey of existing mistake bounds and introduce novel bounds for the Perceptron or the kernel Perceptron algorithm. Our novel bounds generalize beyond standard margin-loss type bounds, allow for any convex and Lipschitz loss function, and admit a very simple proof.

Reliability modeling of a hard real-time system using the path-space approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hagbae

2000-01-01

A hard real-time system, such as a fly-by-wire system, fails catastrophically (e.g. losing stability) if its control inputs are not updated by its digital controller computer within a certain timing constraint called the hard deadline. To assess and validate those systems' reliabilities by using a semi-Markov model that explicitly contains the deadline information, we propose a path-space approach deriving the upper and lower bounds of the probability of system failure. These bounds are derived by using only simple parameters, and they are especially suitable for highly reliable systems which should recover quickly. Analytical bounds are derived for both exponential and Wobble failure distributions encountered commonly, which have proven effective through numerical examples, while considering three repair strategies: repair-as-good-as-new, repair-as-good-as-old, and repair-better-than-old

Characteristics and application study of AP1000 NPPs equipment reliability classification method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guan Gao

2013-01-01

AP1000 nuclear power plant applies an integrated approach to establish equipment reliability classification, which includes probabilistic risk assessment technique, maintenance rule administrative, power production reliability classification and functional equipment group bounding method, and eventually classify equipment reliability into 4 levels. This classification process and result are very different from classical RCM and streamlined RCM. It studied the characteristic of AP1000 equipment reliability classification approach, considered that equipment reliability classification should effectively support maintenance strategy development and work process control, recommended to use a combined RCM method to establish the future equipment reliability program of AP1000 nuclear power plants. (authors)

Bootstrap resampling: a powerful method of assessing confidence intervals for doses from experimental data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwi, G.; Millard, R.K.; Palmer, A.M.; Preece, A.W.; Saunders, M.

1999-01-01

Bootstrap resampling provides a versatile and reliable statistical method for estimating the accuracy of quantities which are calculated from experimental data. It is an empirically based method, in which large numbers of simulated datasets are generated by computer from existing measurements, so that approximate confidence intervals of the derived quantities may be obtained by direct numerical evaluation. A simple introduction to the method is given via a detailed example of estimating 95% confidence intervals for cumulated activity in the thyroid following injection of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate using activity-time data from 23 subjects. The application of the approach to estimating confidence limits for the self-dose to the kidney following injection of 99m Tc-DTPA organ imaging agent based on uptake data from 19 subjects is also illustrated. Results are then given for estimates of doses to the foetus following administration of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate for clinical reasons during pregnancy, averaged over 25 subjects. The bootstrap method is well suited for applications in radiation dosimetry including uncertainty, reliability and sensitivity analysis of dose coefficients in biokinetic models, but it can also be applied in a wide range of other biomedical situations. (author)

PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-12-01

The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

Using the confidence interval confidently.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazra, Avijit

2017-10-01

Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.

Human reliability analysis for venting a BWR Mark I during a severe accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.; Blackman, H.S.

1986-01-01

A Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was performed for the operator actions necessary to achieve containment venting for the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This study was funded by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and performed by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The goal of the analysis was to estimate Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) to determine the likelihood that operators would fail to complete the venting process. The analysis was performed for two generic accident sequences: anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) and station blackout. Two major methods were used to estimate the HEPs: Technique for Human Error rate Prediction (THERP) and Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM). For the ATWS scenarios analyzed, the calculated HEPs ranged from 0.23 to 0.35, depending on the number of vent paths that are required to reduce the containment pressure. It should be noted that the confidence bounds around these HEPs are large, However, even when considering the large confidence range, the failure probabilities are larger than what is typical for normal operator actions. For station blackout, the HEP is 1.0, resulting from the dangerous environmental conditions that are present, assuming that plant management would not deliberately expose personnel to a potentially fatal environment. These results are based on the analysis of draft procedures for containment venting. It is probable that careful revision of the procedures could reduce the human error probabilities

Hybridization thermodynamics of DNA bound to gold nanoparticles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lang, Brian

2010-01-01

Isothermal Titration Calorimetry (ITC) was used to study the thermodynamics of hybridization on DNA-functionalized colloidal gold nanoparticles. When compared to the thermodynamics of hybridization of DNA that is free in solution, the differences in the values of the Gibbs free energy of reaction, Δ r G o , the enthalpy, Δ r H o , and entropy, Δ r S o , were small. The change in Δ r G o between the free and bound states was always positive but with statistical significance outside the 95% confidence interval, implying the free DNA is slightly more stable than when in the bound state. Additionally, ITC was also able to reveal information about the binding stoichiometry of the hybridization reactions on the DNA-functionalized gold nanoparticles, and indicates that there is a significant fraction of the DNA on gold nanoparticle surface that is unavailable for DNA hybridization. Furthermore, the fraction of available DNA is dependent on the spacer group on the DNA that is used to span the gold surface from that to the probe DNA.

Effects of noise and confidence thresholds in nominal and metric Axelrod dynamics of social influence

Science.gov (United States)

de Sanctis, Luca; Galla, Tobias

2009-04-01

We study the effects of bounded confidence thresholds and of interaction and external noise on Axelrod’s model of social influence. Our study is based on a combination of numerical simulations and an integration of the mean-field master equation describing the system in the thermodynamic limit. We find that interaction thresholds affect the system only quantitatively, but that they do not alter the basic phase structure. The known crossover between an ordered and a disordered state in finite systems subject to external noise persists in models with general confidence threshold. Interaction noise here facilitates the dynamics and reduces relaxation times. We also study Axelrod systems with metric features and point out similarities and differences compared to models with nominal features.

Availability, reliability and downtime of systems with repairable components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kiureghian, Armen Der; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Song, J.

2007-01-01

Closed-form expressions are derived for the steady-state availability, mean rate of failure, mean duration of downtime and lower bound reliability of a general system with randomly and independently failing repairable components. Component failures are assumed to be homogeneous Poisson events in ...

Approximate estimation of system reliability via fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dutuit, Y.; Rauzy, A.

2005-01-01

In this article, we show how fault tree analysis, carried out by means of binary decision diagrams (BDD), is able to approximate reliability of systems made of independent repairable components with a good accuracy and a good efficiency. We consider four algorithms: the Murchland lower bound, the Barlow-Proschan lower bound, the Vesely full approximation and the Vesely asymptotic approximation. For each of these algorithms, we consider an implementation based on the classical minimal cut sets/rare events approach and another one relying on the BDD technology. We present numerical results obtained with both approaches on various examples

Metastability bounds on flavour-violating trilinear soft terms in the MSSM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae-hyeon

2010-11-15

The vacuum stability bounds on flavour-violating trilinear soft terms are revisited from the view-point that one should not ban a standard-model-like false vacuum as long as it is long-lived on a cosmological timescale. The vacuum transition rate is evaluated numerically by searching for the bounce configuration. Like stability, a metastability bound does not decouple even if sfermion masses grow. Apart from being more generous than stability, the new bounds are largely independent of Yukawa couplings except for the stop trilinears. With vacuum longevity imposed on otherwise arbitrary LR insertions, it is found that a super flavour factory has the potential to probe sparticle masses up to a few TeV through B and {tau} physics whereas the MEG experiment might cover a far wider range. In the stop sector, metastability is more restrictive than any existing experimental constraint such as from electroweak precision data. Also discussed are dependency on other parameters and reliability under radiative corrections. (orig.)

Metastability bounds on flavour-violating trilinear soft terms in the MSSM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jae-hyeon

2010-11-01

The vacuum stability bounds on flavour-violating trilinear soft terms are revisited from the view-point that one should not ban a standard-model-like false vacuum as long as it is long-lived on a cosmological timescale. The vacuum transition rate is evaluated numerically by searching for the bounce configuration. Like stability, a metastability bound does not decouple even if sfermion masses grow. Apart from being more generous than stability, the new bounds are largely independent of Yukawa couplings except for the stop trilinears. With vacuum longevity imposed on otherwise arbitrary LR insertions, it is found that a super flavour factory has the potential to probe sparticle masses up to a few TeV through B and τ physics whereas the MEG experiment might cover a far wider range. In the stop sector, metastability is more restrictive than any existing experimental constraint such as from electroweak precision data. Also discussed are dependency on other parameters and reliability under radiative corrections. (orig.)

Strongest model-independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter

CERN Document Server

Audren, Benjamin; Mangano, Gianpiero; Serpico, Pasquale Dario; Tram, Thomas

2014-01-01

Dark Matter is essential for structure formation in the late Universe so it must be stable on cosmological time scales. But how stable exactly? Only assuming decays into relativistic particles, we report an otherwise model independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter using current cosmological data. Since these decays affect only the low-$\\ell$ multipoles of the CMB, the Dark Matter lifetime is expected to correlate with the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ as well as curvature $\\Omega_k$. We consider two models, including $r$ and $r+\\Omega_k$ respectively, versus data from Planck, WMAP, WiggleZ and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, with or without the BICEP2 data (if interpreted in terms of primordial gravitational waves). This results in a lower bound on the lifetime of CDM given by 160Gyr (without BICEP2) or 200Gyr (with BICEP2) at 95% confidence level.

A Reliability Test of a Complex System Based on Empirical Likelihood

OpenAIRE

Zhou, Yan; Fu, Liya; Zhang, Jun; Hui, Yongchang

2016-01-01

To analyze the reliability of a complex system described by minimal paths, an empirical likelihood method is proposed to solve the reliability test problem when the subsystem distributions are unknown. Furthermore, we provide a reliability test statistic of the complex system and extract the limit distribution of the test statistic. Therefore, we can obtain the confidence interval for reliability and make statistical inferences. The simulation studies also demonstrate the theorem results.

QA support for TFTR reliability improvement program in preparation for DT operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parsells, R.F.; Howard, H.P.

1987-01-01

As TFTR approaches experiments in the Q=1 regime, machine reliability becomes a major variable in achieving experimental objectives. This paper describes the methods used to quantify current reliability levels, levels required for D-T operations, proposed methods for reliability growth and improvement, and tracking of reliability performance in that growth. Included in this scope are data collection techniques and short comings, bounding current reliability on the upper end, and requirements for D-T operations. Problem characterization through Pareto diagrams provides insight into recurrent failure modes and the use of Duane plots for charting of reliability changes both cumulative and instantaneous, is explained and demonstrated

Lifetime Estimation of Electrolytic Capacitors in Fuel Cell Power Converter at Various Confidence Levels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Dao; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

2016-01-01

DC capacitors in power electronic converters are a major constraint on improvement of the power density and the reliability. In this paper, according to the degradation data of tested capacitors, the lifetime model of the component is analyzed at various confidence levels. Then, the mission profile...... based lifetime expectancy of the individual capacitor and the capacitor bank is estimated in a fuel cell backup power converter operating in both standby mode and operation mode. The lifetime prediction of the capacitor banks at different confidence levels is also obtained....

Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L; Balleteros, Francisco

2016-12-07

Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.

A method of bias correction for maximal reliability with dichotomous measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Penev, Spiridon; Raykov, Tenko

2010-02-01

This paper is concerned with the reliability of weighted combinations of a given set of dichotomous measures. Maximal reliability for such measures has been discussed in the past, but the pertinent estimator exhibits a considerable bias and mean squared error for moderate sample sizes. We examine this bias, propose a procedure for bias correction, and develop a more accurate asymptotic confidence interval for the resulting estimator. In most empirically relevant cases, the bias correction and mean squared error correction can be performed simultaneously. We propose an approximate (asymptotic) confidence interval for the maximal reliability coefficient, discuss the implementation of this estimator, and investigate the mean squared error of the associated asymptotic approximation. We illustrate the proposed methods using a numerical example.

Development and validation of an instrument to measure nurse educator perceived confidence in clinical teaching.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Van N B; Forbes, Helen; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Duke, Maxine

2017-12-01

Teaching nursing in clinical environments is considered complex and multi-faceted. Little is known about the role of the clinical nurse educator, specifically the challenges related to transition from clinician, or in some cases, from newly-graduated nurse to that of clinical nurse educator, as occurs in developing countries. Confidence in the clinical educator role has been associated with successful transition and the development of role competence. There is currently no valid and reliable instrument to measure clinical nurse educator confidence. This study was conducted to develop and psychometrically test an instrument to measure perceived confidence among clinical nurse educators. A multi-phase, multi-setting survey design was used. A total of 468 surveys were distributed, and 363 were returned. Data were analyzed using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. The instrument was successfully tested and modified in phase 1, and factorial validity was subsequently confirmed in phase 2. There was strong evidence of internal consistency, reliability, content, and convergent validity of the Clinical Nurse Educator Skill Acquisition Assessment instrument. The resulting instrument is applicable in similar contexts due to its rigorous development and validation process. © 2017 The Authors. Nursing & Health Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

A general model of confidence building: analysis and implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilgour, D.M.

1998-01-01

For more than two decades, security approaches in Europe have included confidence building. Many have argued that Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS) played an essential role in the enormous transformations that took place there. Thus, it is hardly,surprising that CBMs have been proposed as measures to reduce tensions and transform security relationships elsewhere in the world. The move toward wider application of CBMs has strengthened recently, as conventional military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches seem to have failed to address problems associated with peace-building and peace support operations. There is, however, a serious problem. We don't really know why, or even how, CBMs work. Consequently, we have no reliable way to design CBMs that would be appropriate in substance, form, and timing for regions culturally, geographically, and militarily different from Europe. Lacking a solid understanding of confidence building, we are handicapped in our efforts to extend its successes to the domain of peace building and peace support. To paraphrase Macintosh, if we don't know how CBMs succeeded in the past, then we are unlikely to be good at maintaining, improving, or extending them. The specific aim of this project is to step into this gap, using the methods of game theory to clarify some aspects of the underlying logic of confidence building. Formal decision models will be shown to contribute new and valuable insights that will assist in the design of CBMs to contribute to new problems and in new arenas. (author)

An assessment of the precision and confidence of aquatic eddy correlation measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Donis, Daphne; Holtappels, Moritz; Noss, Christian

2015-01-01

facility with well-constrained hydrodynamics. These observations are used to review data processing procedures and to recommend improved deployment methods, thus improving the precision, reliability, and confidence of EC measurements. Specifically, this study demonstrates that 1) the alignment of the time...... series based on maximum cross correlation improved the precision of EC flux estimations; 2) an oxygen sensor with a response time of

Confidant Relations in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenny Isaacs

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

Hunt for the 11P1 bound state of charmonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, F.C.

1982-02-01

Using the Crystal Ball detector at SPEAR, we have looked for evidence of the isospin-violating decay psi' → π 01 P 1 , where 1 P 1 is the predicted spin-singlet p-wave bound state of charmonium. For a 1 P 1 state at the predicted mass (approx. 3520 MeV), we obtain the 95% confidence level limits: BR(psi' → π 01 P 1 ) 01 P 1 )BR( 1 P 1 → γn/sub c/ < 0.14%. These limits are compared with simple theoretical predictions

How “consistent” is “consistent”? A clinician-based assessment of the reliability of expressions used by radiologists to communicate diagnostic confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenkrantz, A.B.; Kiritsy, M.; Kim, S.

2014-01-01

Aim: To evaluate the degree of variability in clinicians' interpretation of expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence within radiological reports. Materials and methods: Clinicians were solicited to complete a prospective survey asking them to select the approximate perceived level of certainty, expressed as a percentage, associated with 20 expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence within radiological reports. The median and inter-decile range (IDR) were computed for each expression, with a smaller IDR indicating greater reproducibility. Clinicians were also asked questions regarding their attitudes about radiologists' communication of diagnostic confidence. Results: Forty-nine surveys were completed. Median confidence associated with the expressions ranged from 10–90%. Reproducibility of the expressions was variable, as IDR ranged from 15–53%, although a median IDR of 40% indicated overall poor reproducibility. Expressions with relatively higher reproducibility included “most likely”, “likely”, and “unlikely” (IDR 15–20%), whereas expressions with relatively lower reproducibility included “compatible with”, “suspicious for”, “possibly,” and “can be seen in the setting of” (IDR ≥45%). Only 20% of clinicians agreed or strongly agreed that radiologists consistently use such expressions within their reports. Fifty-five percent of clinicians preferred that diagnostic confidence be communicated as a percentage rather than as a textual expression. Conclusion: There was poor reproducibility in clinicians' interpretations of many expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence. Use of percentages to convey diagnostic confidence within reports may mitigate this source of ambiguity in radiologists' communication with clinicians. - Highlights: • Clinicians recorded certainty associated with

Virial Expansion Bounds

Science.gov (United States)

Tate, Stephen James

2013-10-01

In the 1960s, the technique of using cluster expansion bounds in order to achieve bounds on the virial expansion was developed by Lebowitz and Penrose (J. Math. Phys. 5:841, 1964) and Ruelle (Statistical Mechanics: Rigorous Results. Benjamin, Elmsford, 1969). This technique is generalised to more recent cluster expansion bounds by Poghosyan and Ueltschi (J. Math. Phys. 50:053509, 2009), which are related to the work of Procacci (J. Stat. Phys. 129:171, 2007) and the tree-graph identity, detailed by Brydges (Phénomènes Critiques, Systèmes Aléatoires, Théories de Jauge. Les Houches 1984, pp. 129-183, 1986). The bounds achieved by Lebowitz and Penrose can also be sharpened by doing the actual optimisation and achieving expressions in terms of the Lambert W-function. The different bound from the cluster expansion shows some improvements for bounds on the convergence of the virial expansion in the case of positive potentials, which are allowed to have a hard core.

[WTP guidance technology: a comparison of payment card, single-bounded and double-bounded dichotomous formats for evaluating non-use values of Sanjiang Plain ecotourism water resources].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hong-Guang; Wang, Qiu-Dan; Li, Chen-Yang

2014-09-01

Contingent valuation method (CVM) is the most widespread method to assess resources and value of environmental goods and services. The guidance technology of willingness to pay (WTP) is an important means of CVM. Therefore, the study on the WTP guidance technology is an important approach to improve the reliability and validity of CVM. This article conducted comprehensive evaluation on non-use value of eco-tourism water resources in Sanjiang Plain by using payment card, single-bound dichotomous choice and double-bound dichotomous choice. Results showed that the socio-economic attributes were consistent with the willingness to pay in the three formats, and the tender value, age, educational level, annual income and the concern level had significant effect on the willingness to pay, while gender and job did not have significant influence. The WTP value was 112.46 yuan per capita with the payment card, 136.15 with the single-bound dichotomous choice, and 168.74 with the double-bound dichotomous choice. Comprehensive consideration of the nature of the investigation, investigation costs and statistical techniques, the result of double-bound dichotomous choice (47.86 x 10(8) yuan · a(-1)) was best in accordance with the reality, and could be used as non-use value of eco-tourism water resources in Sanjiang Plain. The format of questionnaire was very important to improve its validity, and made a great influence on the WTP.

Upper bounds on superpartner masses from upper bounds on the Higgs boson mass.

Science.gov (United States)

Cabrera, M E; Casas, J A; Delgado, A

2012-01-13

The LHC is putting bounds on the Higgs boson mass. In this Letter we use those bounds to constrain the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) parameter space using the fact that, in supersymmetry, the Higgs mass is a function of the masses of sparticles, and therefore an upper bound on the Higgs mass translates into an upper bound for the masses for superpartners. We show that, although current bounds do not constrain the MSSM parameter space from above, once the Higgs mass bound improves big regions of this parameter space will be excluded, putting upper bounds on supersymmetry (SUSY) masses. On the other hand, for the case of split-SUSY we show that, for moderate or large tanβ, the present bounds on the Higgs mass imply that the common mass for scalars cannot be greater than 10(11)  GeV. We show how these bounds will evolve as LHC continues to improve the limits on the Higgs mass.

Designing the optimal bit: balancing energetic cost, speed and reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Deshpande, Abhishek; Gopalkrishnan, Manoj; Ouldridge, Thomas E; Jones, Nick S

2017-08-01

We consider the challenge of operating a reliable bit that can be rapidly erased. We find that both erasing and reliability times are non-monotonic in the underlying friction, leading to a trade-off between erasing speed and bit reliability. Fast erasure is possible at the expense of low reliability at moderate friction, and high reliability comes at the expense of slow erasure in the underdamped and overdamped limits. Within a given class of bit parameters and control strategies, we define 'optimal' designs of bits that meet the desired reliability and erasing time requirements with the lowest operational work cost. We find that optimal designs always saturate the bound on the erasing time requirement, but can exceed the required reliability time if critically damped. The non-trivial geometry of the reliability and erasing time scales allows us to exclude large regions of parameter space as suboptimal. We find that optimal designs are either critically damped or close to critical damping under the erasing procedure.

The DMM Bound

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Emiris, Ioannis Z.; Mourrain, Bernard; Tsigaridas, Elias

2010-01-01

) resultant by means of mixed volume, as well as recent advances on aggregate root bounds for univariate polynomials, and are applicable to arbitrary positive dimensional systems. We improve upon Canny's gap theorem [7] by a factor of O(dn-1), where d bounds the degree of the polynomials, and n is the number...... bound on the number of steps that subdivision-based algorithms perform in order to isolate all real roots of a polynomial system. This leads to the first complexity bound of Milne's algorithm [22] in 2D....

Increasing the reliability of the fluid/crystallized difference score from the Kaufman Adolescent and Adult Intelligence Test with reliable component analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Caruso, J C

2001-06-01

The unreliability of difference scores is a well documented phenomenon in the social sciences and has led researchers and practitioners to interpret differences cautiously, if at all. In the case of the Kaufman Adult and Adolescent Intelligence Test (KAIT), the unreliability of the difference between the Fluid IQ and the Crystallized IQ is due to the high correlation between the two scales. The consequences of the lack of precision with which differences are identified are wide confidence intervals and unpowerful significance tests (i.e., large differences are required to be declared statistically significant). Reliable component analysis (RCA) was performed on the subtests of the KAIT in order to address these problems. RCA is a new data reduction technique that results in uncorrelated component scores with maximum proportions of reliable variance. Results indicate that the scores defined by RCA have discriminant and convergent validity (with respect to the equally weighted scores) and that differences between the scores, derived from a single testing session, were more reliable than differences derived from equal weighting for each age group (11-14 years, 15-34 years, 35-85+ years). This reliability advantage results in narrower confidence intervals around difference scores and smaller differences required for statistical significance.

Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

2009-01-01

Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

Confidence Intervals Verification for Simulated Error Rate Performance of Wireless Communication System

KAUST Repository

Smadi, Mahmoud A.

2012-12-06

In this paper, we derived an efficient simulation method to evaluate the error rate of wireless communication system. Coherent binary phase-shift keying system is considered with imperfect channel phase recovery. The results presented demonstrate the system performance under very realistic Nakagami-m fading and additive white Gaussian noise channel. On the other hand, the accuracy of the obtained results is verified through running the simulation under a good confidence interval reliability of 95 %. We see that as the number of simulation runs N increases, the simulated error rate becomes closer to the actual one and the confidence interval difference reduces. Hence our results are expected to be of significant practical use for such scenarios. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Organically bound tritium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diabate, S.; Strack, S.

1993-01-01

Tritium released into the environment may be incorporated into organic matter. Organically bound tritium in that case will show retention times in organisms that are considerably longer than those of tritiated water which has significant consequences on dose estimates. This article reviews the most important processes of organically bound tritium production and transport through food networks. Metabolic reactions in plant and animal organisms with tritiated water as a reaction partner are of great importance in this respect. The most important production process, in quantitative terms, is photosynthesis in green plants. The translocation of organically bound tritium from the leaves to edible parts of crop plants should be considered in models of organically bound tritium behavior. Organically bound tritium enters the human body on several pathways, either from the primary producers (vegetable food) or at a higher tropic level (animal food). Animal experiments have shown that the dose due to ingestion of organically bound tritium can be up to twice as high as a comparable intake of tritiated water in gaseous or liquid form. In the environment, organically bound tritium in plants and animals is often found to have higher specific tritium concentrations than tissue water. This is not due to some tritium enrichment effects but to the fact that no equilibrium conditions are reached under natural conditions. 66 refs

Emergent low-energy bound states in the two-orbital Hubbard model

Science.gov (United States)

Núñez-Fernández, Y.; Kotliar, G.; Hallberg, K.

2018-03-01

A repulsive Coulomb interaction between electrons in different orbitals in correlated materials can give rise to bound quasiparticle states. We study the nonhybridized two-orbital Hubbard model with intra- (inter)orbital interaction U (U12) and different bandwidths using an improved dynamical mean-field theory numerical technique which leads to reliable spectra on the real energy axis directly at zero temperature. We find that a finite density of states at the Fermi energy in one band is correlated with the emergence of well-defined quasiparticle states at excited energies Δ =U -U12 in the other band. These excitations are interband holon-doublon bound states. At the symmetric point U =U12 , the quasiparticle peaks are located at the Fermi energy, leading to a simultaneous and continuous Mott transition settling a long-standing controversy.

Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-03-19

This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

Dynamic bounds coupled with Monte Carlo simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rajabalinejad, M., E-mail: M.Rajabalinejad@tudelft.n [Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands); Meester, L.E. [Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands); Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Vrijling, J.K. [Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)

2011-02-15

For the reliability analysis of engineering structures a variety of methods is known, of which Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely considered to be among the most robust and most generally applicable. To reduce simulation cost of the MC method, variance reduction methods are applied. This paper describes a method to reduce the simulation cost even further, while retaining the accuracy of Monte Carlo, by taking into account widely present monotonicity. For models exhibiting monotonic (decreasing or increasing) behavior, dynamic bounds (DB) are defined, which in a coupled Monte Carlo simulation are updated dynamically, resulting in a failure probability estimate, as well as a strict (non-probabilistic) upper and lower bounds. Accurate results are obtained at a much lower cost than an equivalent ordinary Monte Carlo simulation. In a two-dimensional and a four-dimensional numerical example, the cost reduction factors are 130 and 9, respectively, where the relative error is smaller than 5%. At higher accuracy levels, this factor increases, though this effect is expected to be smaller with increasing dimension. To show the application of DB method to real world problems, it is applied to a complex finite element model of a flood wall in New Orleans.

MEASUREMENT: ACCOUNTING FOR RELIABILITY IN PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES.

Science.gov (United States)

Waterman, Brian; Sutter, Robert; Burroughs, Thomas; Dunagan, W Claiborne

2014-01-01

When evaluating physician performance measures, physician leaders are faced with the quandary of determining whether departures from expected physician performance measurements represent a true signal or random error. This uncertainty impedes the physician leader's ability and confidence to take appropriate performance improvement actions based on physician performance measurements. Incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurement is a valuable way of reducing the impact of random error in the measurements, such as those caused by small sample sizes. Consequently, the physician executive has more confidence that the results represent true performance and is positioned to make better physician performance improvement decisions. Applying reliability adjustment to physician-level performance data is relatively new. As others have noted previously, it's important to keep in mind that reliability adjustment adds significant complexity to the production, interpretation and utilization of results. Furthermore, the methods explored in this case study only scratch the surface of the range of available Bayesian methods that can be used for reliability adjustment; further study is needed to test and compare these methods in practice and to examine important extensions for handling specialty-specific concerns (e.g., average case volumes, which have been shown to be important in cardiac surgery outcomes). Moreover, it's important to note that the provider group average as a basis for shrinkage is one of several possible choices that could be employed in practice and deserves further exploration in future research. With these caveats, our results demonstrate that incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurements is feasible and can notably reduce the incidence of "real" signals relative to what one would expect to see using more traditional approaches. A physician leader who is interested in catalyzing performance improvement

Time-variant reliability assessment through equivalent stochastic process transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zequn; Chen, Wei

2016-01-01

Time-variant reliability measures the probability that an engineering system successfully performs intended functions over a certain period of time under various sources of uncertainty. In practice, it is computationally prohibitive to propagate uncertainty in time-variant reliability assessment based on expensive or complex numerical models. This paper presents an equivalent stochastic process transformation approach for cost-effective prediction of reliability deterioration over the life cycle of an engineering system. To reduce the high dimensionality, a time-independent reliability model is developed by translating random processes and time parameters into random parameters in order to equivalently cover all potential failures that may occur during the time interval of interest. With the time-independent reliability model, an instantaneous failure surface is attained by using a Kriging-based surrogate model to identify all potential failure events. To enhance the efficacy of failure surface identification, a maximum confidence enhancement method is utilized to update the Kriging model sequentially. Then, the time-variant reliability is approximated using Monte Carlo simulations of the Kriging model where system failures over a time interval are predicted by the instantaneous failure surface. The results of two case studies demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to accurately predict the time evolution of system reliability while requiring much less computational efforts compared with the existing analytical approach. - Highlights: • Developed a new approach for time-variant reliability analysis. • Proposed a novel stochastic process transformation procedure to reduce the dimensionality. • Employed Kriging models with confidence-based adaptive sampling scheme to enhance computational efficiency. • The approach is effective for handling random process in time-variant reliability analysis. • Two case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy

We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

2016-12-01

The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A high confidence, manually validated human blood plasma protein reference set

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schenk, Susann; Schoenhals, Gary J; de Souza, Gustavo

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The immense diagnostic potential of human plasma has prompted great interest and effort in cataloging its contents, exemplified by the Human Proteome Organization (HUPO) Plasma Proteome Project (PPP) pilot project. Due to challenges in obtaining a reliable blood plasma protein list......-trap-Fourier transform (LTQ-FT) and a linear ion trap-Orbitrap (LTQ-Orbitrap) for mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. Both instruments allow the measurement of peptide masses in the low ppm range. Furthermore, we employed a statistical score that allows database peptide identification searching using the products of two...... consecutive stages of tandem mass spectrometry (MS3). The combination of MS3 with very high mass accuracy in the parent peptide allows peptide identification with orders of magnitude more confidence than that typically achieved. RESULTS: Herein we established a high confidence set of 697 blood plasma proteins...

Raising Confident Kids

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... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

A new reliability measure based on specified minimum distances before the locations of random variables in a finite interval

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Todinov, M.T.

2004-01-01

A new reliability measure is proposed and equations are derived which determine the probability of existence of a specified set of minimum gaps between random variables following a homogeneous Poisson process in a finite interval. Using the derived equations, a method is proposed for specifying the upper bound of the random variables' number density which guarantees that the probability of clustering of two or more random variables in a finite interval remains below a maximum acceptable level. It is demonstrated that even for moderate number densities the probability of clustering is substantial and should not be neglected in reliability calculations. In the important special case where the random variables are failure times, models have been proposed for determining the upper bound of the hazard rate which guarantees a set of minimum failure-free operating intervals before the random failures, with a specified probability. A model has also been proposed for determining the upper bound of the hazard rate which guarantees a minimum availability target. Using the models proposed, a new strategy, models and reliability tools have been developed for setting quantitative reliability requirements which consist of determining the intersection of the hazard rate envelopes (hazard rate upper bounds) which deliver a minimum failure-free operating period before random failures, a risk of premature failure below a maximum acceptable level and a minimum required availability. It is demonstrated that setting reliability requirements solely based on an availability target does not necessarily mean a low risk of premature failure. Even at a high availability level, the probability of premature failure can be substantial. For industries characterised by a high cost of failure, the reliability requirements should involve a hazard rate envelope limiting the risk of failure below a maximum acceptable level

Surveying the impact of satisfaction and e-reliability on customers' loyalty in e-purchase process: a case in Pars Khodro co

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vahid Qaemi

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Today, customer return issue in e-purchase process is considered as important topic in companies' marketing and managerial decision making. In this paper, we present an empirical study on measuring the impact of e-loyalty for an Iranian auto-industry called Pars Khodro co. The proposed study measures reliability, responsiveness, design, security/privacy as independent variables, e-confidence and e-satisfaction as mediator variable, and e-loyalty as dependent variable. The preliminary results show that effectiveness of e-satisfaction and e-confidence on loyalty and effectiveness of e-confidence on e-satisfaction are in high level. Reliability/Fulfillment and security variables on e-confidence have significant impacts, and effectiveness level of reliability/Fulfillment and responsiveness and website design on e-satisfaction is high. The results indicate that there is no significant relationship between responsiveness and e-confidence.

78 FR 18326 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-26

...; Comment Request; Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math Science Annual Performance Report AGENCY: The Office... considered public records. Title of Collection: Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math Science Annual Performance...) and Upward Bound Math and Science (UBMS) Programs. The Department is requesting a new APR because of...

Universal bounds on current fluctuations.

Science.gov (United States)

Pietzonka, Patrick; Barato, Andre C; Seifert, Udo

2016-05-01

For current fluctuations in nonequilibrium steady states of Markovian processes, we derive four different universal bounds valid beyond the Gaussian regime. Different variants of these bounds apply to either the entropy change or any individual current, e.g., the rate of substrate consumption in a chemical reaction or the electron current in an electronic device. The bounds vary with respect to their degree of universality and tightness. A universal parabolic bound on the generating function of an arbitrary current depends solely on the average entropy production. A second, stronger bound requires knowledge both of the thermodynamic forces that drive the system and of the topology of the network of states. These two bounds are conjectures based on extensive numerics. An exponential bound that depends only on the average entropy production and the average number of transitions per time is rigorously proved. This bound has no obvious relation to the parabolic bound but it is typically tighter further away from equilibrium. An asymptotic bound that depends on the specific transition rates and becomes tight for large fluctuations is also derived. This bound allows for the prediction of the asymptotic growth of the generating function. Even though our results are restricted to networks with a finite number of states, we show that the parabolic bound is also valid for three paradigmatic examples of driven diffusive systems for which the generating function can be calculated using the additivity principle. Our bounds provide a general class of constraints for nonequilibrium systems.

Psychometric testing on the NLN Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning, Simulation Design Scale, and Educational Practices Questionnaire using a sample of pre-licensure novice nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Franklin, Ashley E; Burns, Paulette; Lee, Christopher S

2014-10-01

In 2006, the National League for Nursing published three measures related to novice nurses' beliefs about self-confidence, scenario design, and educational practices associated with simulation. Despite the extensive use of these measures, little is known about their reliability and validity. The psychometric properties of the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale, Simulation Design Scale, and Educational Practices Questionnaire were studied among a sample of 2200 surveys completed by novice nurses from a liberal arts university in the southern United States. Psychometric tests included item analysis, confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses in randomly-split subsamples, concordant and discordant validity, and internal consistency. All three measures have sufficient reliability and validity to be used in education research. There is room for improvement in content validity with the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and Simulation Design Scale. This work provides robust evidence to ensure that judgments made about self-confidence after simulation, simulation design and educational practices are valid and reliable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quivers of Bound Path Algebras and Bound Path Coalgebras

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dr. Intan Muchtadi

2010-09-01

Full Text Available bras and coalgebras can be represented as quiver (directed graph, and from quiver we can construct algebras and coalgebras called path algebras and path coalgebras. In this paper we show that the quiver of a bound path coalgebra (resp. algebra is the dual quiver of its bound path algebra (resp. coalgebra.

Reliability and failure modes of implant-supported zirconium-oxide fixed dental prostheses related to veneering techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Baldassarri, Marta; Zhang, Yu; Thompson, Van P.; Rekow, Elizabeth D.; Stappert, Christian F. J.

2011-01-01

Summary Objectives To compare fatigue failure modes and reliability of hand-veneered and over-pressed implant-supported three-unit zirconium-oxide fixed-dental-prostheses(FDPs). Methods Sixty-four custom-made zirconium-oxide abutments (n=32/group) and thirty-two zirconium-oxide FDP-frameworks were CAD/CAM manufactured. Frameworks were veneered with hand-built up or over-pressed porcelain (n=16/group). Step-stress-accelerated-life-testing (SSALT) was performed in water applying a distributed contact load at the buccal cusp-pontic-area. Post failure examinations were carried out using optical (polarized-reflected-light) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to visualize crack propagation and failure modes. Reliability was compared using cumulative-damage step-stress analysis (Alta-7-Pro, Reliasoft). Results Crack propagation was observed in the veneering porcelain during fatigue. The majority of zirconium-oxide FDPs demonstrated porcelain chipping as the dominant failure mode. Nevertheless, fracture of the zirconium-oxide frameworks was also observed. Over-pressed FDPs failed earlier at a mean failure load of 696 ± 149 N relative to hand-veneered at 882 ± 61 N (profile I). Weibull-stress-number of cycles-unreliability-curves were generated. The reliability (2-sided at 90% confidence bounds) for a 400N load at 100K cycles indicated values of 0.84 (0.98-0.24) for the hand-veneered FDPs and 0.50 (0.82-0.09) for their over-pressed counterparts. Conclusions Both zirconium-oxide FDP systems were resistant under accelerated-life-time-testing. Over-pressed specimens were more susceptible to fatigue loading with earlier veneer chipping. PMID:21557985

Diverse interpretations of confidence building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macintosh, J.

1998-01-01

This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)

Catchment source contributions to the sediment-bound organic matter degrading salmonid spawning gravels in a lowland river, southern England

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Collins, A.L., E-mail: adrian.collins@adas.co.uk [ADAS, Pendeford House, Wobaston Road, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP (United Kingdom); Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Williams, L.J.; Zhang, Y.S. [ADAS, Pendeford House, Wobaston Road, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP (United Kingdom); Marius, M. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Dungait, J.A.J. [Department of Sustainable Systems and Grassland Science, Rothamsted Research—North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Smallman, D.J. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Dixon, E.R. [Department of Sustainable Systems and Grassland Science, Rothamsted Research—North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Stringfellow, A. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Sear, D.A. [Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Jones, J.I. [School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS (United Kingdom); Naden, P.S. [CEH Wallingford, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB (United Kingdom)

2013-07-01

The ingress of particulate material into freshwater spawning substrates is thought to be contributing to the declining success of salmonids reported over recent years for many rivers. Accordingly, the need for reliable information on the key sources of the sediment problem has progressed up the management agenda. Whilst previous work has focussed on apportioning the sources of minerogenic fine sediment degrading spawning habitats, there remains a need to develop procedures for generating corresponding information for the potentially harmful sediment-bound organic matter that represents an overlooked component of interstitial sediment. A source tracing procedure based on composite signatures combining bulk stable {sup 13}C and {sup 15}N isotope values with organic molecular structures detected using near infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy was therefore used to assess the primary sources of sediment-bound organic matter sampled from artificial spawning redds. Composite signatures were selected using a combination of the Kruskal–Wallis H-test, principal component analysis and GA-driven discriminant function analysis. Interstitial sediment samples were collected using time-integrating basket traps which were inserted at the start of the salmonid spawning season and extracted in conjunction with critical phases of fish development (eyeing, hatch, emergence, late spawning). Over the duration of these four basket extractions, the overall relative frequency-weighted average median (± 95% confidence limits) source contributions to the interstitial sediment-bound organic matter were estimated to be in the order: instream decaying vegetation (39 ± < 1%; full range 0–77%); damaged road verges (28 ± < 1%; full range 0–77%); septic tanks (22 ± < 1%; full range 0–50%), and; farm yard manures/slurries (11 ± < 1%; full range 0–61%). The reported procedure provides a promising basis for understanding the key sources of interstitial sediment-bound organic matter

Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Xin; Ma, Li

2018-01-01

Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

Bounds on graviton mass using weak lensing and SZ effect in galaxy clusters

Science.gov (United States)

Rana, Akshay; Jain, Deepak; Mahajan, Shobhit; Mukherjee, Amitabha

2018-06-01

In General Relativity (GR), the graviton is massless. However, a common feature in several theoretical alternatives of GR is a non-zero mass for the graviton. These theories can be described as massive gravity theories. Despite many theoretical complexities in these theories, on phenomenological grounds the implications of massive gravity have been widely used to put bounds on graviton mass. One of the generic implications of giving a mass to the graviton is that the gravitational potential will follow a Yukawa-like fall off. We use this feature of massive gravity theories to probe the mass of graviton by using the largest gravitationally bound objects, namely galaxy clusters. In this work, we use the mass estimates of galaxy clusters measured at various cosmologically defined radial distances measured via weak lensing (WL) and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect. We also use the model independent values of Hubble parameter H (z) smoothed by a non-parametric method, Gaussian process. Within 1σ confidence region, we obtain the mass of graviton mg 6.82 Mpc from weak lensing and mg 5.012 Mpc from SZ effect. This analysis improves the upper bound on graviton mass obtained earlier from galaxy clusters.

Application of nonparametric statistics to material strength/reliability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arai, Taketoshi

1992-01-01

An advanced material technology requires data base on a wide variety of material behavior which need to be established experimentally. It may often happen that experiments are practically limited in terms of reproducibility or a range of test parameters. Statistical methods can be applied to understanding uncertainties in such a quantitative manner as required from the reliability point of view. Statistical assessment involves determinations of a most probable value and the maximum and/or minimum value as one-sided or two-sided confidence limit. A scatter of test data can be approximated by a theoretical distribution only if the goodness of fit satisfies a test criterion. Alternatively, nonparametric statistics (NPS) or distribution-free statistics can be applied. Mathematical procedures by NPS are well established for dealing with most reliability problems. They handle only order statistics of a sample. Mathematical formulas and some applications to engineering assessments are described. They include confidence limits of median, population coverage of sample, required minimum number of a sample, and confidence limits of fracture probability. These applications demonstrate that a nonparametric statistical estimation is useful in logical decision making in the case a large uncertainty exists. (author)

Effect of rater training on reliability and accuracy of mini-CEX scores: a randomized, controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, David A; Dupras, Denise M; Beckman, Thomas J; Thomas, Kris G; Pankratz, V Shane

2009-01-01

Mini-CEX scores assess resident competence. Rater training might improve mini-CEX score interrater reliability, but evidence is lacking. Evaluate a rater training workshop using interrater reliability and accuracy. Randomized trial (immediate versus delayed workshop) and single-group pre/post study (randomized groups combined). Academic medical center. Fifty-two internal medicine clinic preceptors (31 randomized and 21 additional workshop attendees). The workshop included rater error training, performance dimension training, behavioral observation training, and frame of reference training using lecture, video, and facilitated discussion. Delayed group received no intervention until after posttest. Mini-CEX ratings at baseline (just before workshop for workshop group), and four weeks later using videotaped resident-patient encounters; mini-CEX ratings of live resident-patient encounters one year preceding and one year following the workshop; rater confidence using mini-CEX. Among 31 randomized participants, interrater reliabilities in the delayed group (baseline intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] 0.43, follow-up 0.53) and workshop group (baseline 0.40, follow-up 0.43) were not significantly different (p = 0.19). Mean ratings were similar at baseline (delayed 4.9 [95% confidence interval 4.6-5.2], workshop 4.8 [4.5-5.1]) and follow-up (delayed 5.4 [5.0-5.7], workshop 5.3 [5.0-5.6]; p = 0.88 for interaction). For the entire cohort, rater confidence (1 = not confident, 6 = very confident) improved from mean (SD) 3.8 (1.4) to 4.4 (1.0), p = 0.018. Interrater reliability for ratings of live encounters (entire cohort) was higher after the workshop (ICC 0.34) than before (ICC 0.18) but the standard error of measurement was similar for both periods. Rater training did not improve interrater reliability or accuracy of mini-CEX scores. clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00667940

Photon virtual bound state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inoue, J.; Ohtaka, K.

2004-01-01

We study virtual bound states in photonics, which are a vectorial extension of electron virtual bound states. The condition for these states is derived. It is found that the Mie resonant state which satisfies the condition that the size parameter is less than the angular momentum should be interpreted as a photon virtual bound state. In order to confirm the validity of the concept, we compare the photonic density of states, the width of which represents the lifetime of the photon virtual bound states, with numerical results

The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

2017-11-01

Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

Memory judgements: the contribution of detail and emotion to assessments of believability and reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Justice, Lucy V; Smith, Harriet M J

2018-06-06

In legal settings, jury members, police, and legal professionals often have to make judgements about witnesses' or victims' memories of events. Without a scientific understanding of memory, (often erroneous) beliefs are used to make decisions. Evaluation of the literature identified two prevalent beliefs that could influence judgements: (1) memory operates like a video recorder therefore, accounts that are detailed are more believable than those containing vague descriptions, and (2) memories recalled with congruent emotion are more believable than those recalled with incongruent emotion. A 2 (emotionality: emotional, non-emotional) × 2 (detail: high, low) factorial design was generated. In line with previous research, participants made believability judgements (Experiment 1) but uniquely, participants were also asked to judge the reliability of the rememberer's recall (Experiment 2). Self-reported confidence, personality measures, and political orientation were also recorded. Believability judgements did not vary as a function of detail or emotion but detailed accounts were judged as more reliable than vague accounts. Confidence and believability were positively correlated, whereas the confidence-reliability relationship was more complex. Personality and political measures were independent of judgements of both constructs. Our results suggest that believability and reliability are distinct constructs and should be examined as such in future research.

Reliability and validity of the de Morton Mobility Index in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Tobias; Marks, Detlef; Thiel, Christian; Grüneberg, Christian

2018-02-04

To establish the validity and reliability of the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) in patients with sub-acute stroke. This cross-sectional study was performed in a neurological rehabilitation hospital. We assessed unidimensionality, construct validity, internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, minimal detectable change and possible floor and ceiling effects of the DEMMI in adult patients with sub-acute stroke. The study included a total sample of 121 patients with sub-acute stroke. We analysed validity (n = 109) and reliability (n = 51) in two sub-samples. Rasch analysis indicated unidimensionality with an overall fit to the model (chi-square = 12.37, p = 0.577). All hypotheses on construct validity were confirmed. Internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.94) and inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.95; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-0.97) were excellent. The minimal detectable change with 90% confidence was 13 points. No floor or ceiling effects were evident. These results indicate unidimensionality, sufficient internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, and construct validity of the DEMMI in patients with a sub-acute stroke. Advantages of the DEMMI in clinical application are the short administration time, no need for special equipment and interval level data. The de Morton Mobility Index, therefore, may be a useful performance-based bedside test to measure mobility in individuals with a sub-acute stroke across the whole mobility spectrum. Implications for Rehabilitation The de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) is an unidimensional measurement instrument of mobility in individuals with sub-acute stroke. The DEMMI has excellent internal consistency and inter-rater reliability, and sufficient construct validity. The minimal detectable change of the DEMMI with 90% confidence in stroke rehabilitation is 13 points. The lack of any floor or ceiling effects on hospital admission indicates

Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith

2015-01-01

The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... understanding of climate impacts, such as how to improve coupled models from physics to fish and how to strengthen confidence in analysis of time series...

Reliable and valid assessment of performance in thoracoscopy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Konge, Lars; Lehnert, Per; Hansen, Henrik Jessen

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND: As we move toward competency-based education in medicine, we have lagged in developing competency-based evaluation methods. In the era of minimally invasive surgery, there is a need for a reliable and valid tool dedicated to measure competence in video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery....... The purpose of this study is to create such an assessment tool, and to explore its reliability and validity. METHODS: An expert group of physicians created an assessment tool consisting of 10 items rated on a five-point rating scale. The following factors were included: economy and confidence of movement...

Level of Self-confidence among Female Students of Hail University in Saudi Arabia in Relationship with some Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wedad Mohammad Saleh Alkferi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to detect the level of self-confidence among female students of Hail University, and whether there were significant differences at the level of the students' self-confidence attributed to the variables of age and specialization. The study sample, which was randomly selected, consisted of 802 students from various disciplines at the university (medicine, engineering, psychology, and Islamic culture enrolled for the second semester of the academic year (2015/2016. To achieve the objectives of the study a confidence Scale developed by Kawasmeh and Farah (1996. The scale was checked for its validity and reliability. The statistical package SPSS was used to extract the results. Results of the study revealed a low level of self-confidence for the students of the university, whereas there were no statistically significant differences due to the variables of age and specialization. Keywords: Self-confidence, Students of Hail University, Saudi Arabia, Some variables.

Reliability of thermal-hydraulic passive safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Auria, F.; Araneo, D.; Pierro, F.; Galassi, G.

2014-01-01

The scholar will be informed of reliability concepts applied to passive system adopted for nuclear reactors. Namely, for classical components and systems the failure concept is associated with malfunction of breaking of hardware. In the case of passive systems the failure is associated with phenomena. A method for studying the reliability of passive systems is discussed and is applied. The paper deals with the description of the REPAS (Reliability Evaluation of Passive Safety System) methodology developed by University of Pisa (UNIPI) and with results from its application. The general objective of the REPAS methodology is to characterize the performance of a passive system in order to increase the confidence toward its operation and to compare the performances of active and passive systems and the performances of different passive systems

Semi-automated CCTV surveillance: the effects of system confidence, system accuracy and task complexity on operator vigilance, reliance and workload.

Science.gov (United States)

Dadashi, N; Stedmon, A W; Pridmore, T P

2013-09-01

Recent advances in computer vision technology have lead to the development of various automatic surveillance systems, however their effectiveness is adversely affected by many factors and they are not completely reliable. This study investigated the potential of a semi-automated surveillance system to reduce CCTV operator workload in both detection and tracking activities. A further focus of interest was the degree of user reliance on the automated system. A simulated prototype was developed which mimicked an automated system that provided different levels of system confidence information. Dependent variable measures were taken for secondary task performance, reliance and subjective workload. When the automatic component of a semi-automatic CCTV surveillance system provided reliable system confidence information to operators, workload significantly decreased and spare mental capacity significantly increased. Providing feedback about system confidence and accuracy appears to be one important way of making the status of the automated component of the surveillance system more 'visible' to users and hence more effective to use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

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Z.-G. Zhou

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

A simple Bayesian approach to quantifying confidence level of adverse event incidence proportion in small samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fang

2016-01-01

In both clinical development and post-marketing of a new therapy or a new treatment, incidence of an adverse event (AE) is always a concern. When sample sizes are small, large sample-based inferential approaches on an AE incidence proportion in a certain time period no longer apply. In this brief discussion, we introduce a simple Bayesian framework to quantify, in small sample studies and the rare AE case, (1) the confidence level that the incidence proportion of a particular AE p is over or below a threshold, (2) the lower or upper bounds on p with a certain level of confidence, and (3) the minimum required number of patients with an AE before we can be certain that p surpasses a specific threshold, or the maximum allowable number of patients with an AE after which we can no longer be certain that p is below a certain threshold, given a certain confidence level. The method is easy to understand and implement; the interpretation of the results is intuitive. This article also demonstrates the usefulness of simple Bayesian concepts when it comes to answering practical questions.

Growth Estimators and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Negative Binomial Random Variables with Unknown Dispersion

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David Shilane

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.

Fault tree and reliability relationships for analyzing noncoherent two-state systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alesso, H.P.; Benson, H.J.

1980-01-01

Recently, there has been interest in analyzing the noncoherent interactions that result from adversary theft of special nuclear material from reprocessing facilities. The actions of the adversary, acting in conflict with the reprocessing facility's material control and accounting system, may be viewed as a single noncoherent structure. This paper develops a basis for analyzing noncoherent structures by decomposing them into coherent subsystems. Both reliability and fault tree structure functions are used for this analysis. In addition, a bounding criterion is established for the reliability of statistically dependent noncoherent structures. (orig.)

Pneumothorax size measurements on digital chest radiographs: Intra- and inter- rater reliability.

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Thelle, Andreas; Gjerdevik, Miriam; Grydeland, Thomas; Skorge, Trude D; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Bakke, Per S

2015-10-01

Detailed and reliable methods may be important for discussions on the importance of pneumothorax size in clinical decision-making. Rhea's method is widely used to estimate pneumothorax size in percent based on chest X-rays (CXRs) from three measure points. Choi's addendum is used for anterioposterior projections. The aim of this study was to examine the intrarater and interrater reliability of the Rhea and Choi method using digital CXR in the ward based PACS monitors. Three physicians examined a retrospective series of 80 digital CXRs showing pneumothorax, using Rhea and Choi's method, then repeated in a random order two weeks later. We used the analysis of variance technique by Eliasziw et al. to assess the intrarater and interrater reliability in altogether 480 estimations of pneumothorax size. Estimated pneumothorax sizes ranged between 5% and 100%. The intrarater reliability coefficient was 0.98 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval C 0.96), and the interrater reliability coefficient was 0.95 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval 0.93). This study has shown that the Rhea and Choi method for calculating pneumothorax size has high intrarater and interrater reliability. These results are valid across gender, side of pneumothorax and whether the patient is diagnosed with primary or secondary pneumothorax. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Curvature bound from gravitational catalysis

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Gies, Holger; Martini, Riccardo

2018-04-01

We determine bounds on the curvature of local patches of spacetime from the requirement of intact long-range chiral symmetry. The bounds arise from a scale-dependent analysis of gravitational catalysis and its influence on the effective potential for the chiral order parameter, as induced by fermionic fluctuations on a curved spacetime with local hyperbolic properties. The bound is expressed in terms of the local curvature scalar measured in units of a gauge-invariant coarse-graining scale. We argue that any effective field theory of quantum gravity obeying this curvature bound is safe from chiral symmetry breaking through gravitational catalysis and thus compatible with the simultaneous existence of chiral fermions in the low-energy spectrum. With increasing number of dimensions, the curvature bound in terms of the hyperbolic scale parameter becomes stronger. Applying the curvature bound to the asymptotic safety scenario for quantum gravity in four spacetime dimensions translates into bounds on the matter content of particle physics models.

Deeply bound pionic atom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toki, Hiroshi; Yamazaki, Toshimitsu

1989-01-01

The standard method of pionic atom formation does not produce deeply bound pionic atoms. A study is made on the properties of deeply bound pionic atom states by using the standard pion-nucleus optical potential. Another study is made to estimate the cross sections of the formation of ls pionic atom states by various methods. The pion-nucleus optical potential is determined by weakly bound pionic atom states and pion nucleus scattering. Although this potential may not be valid for deeply bound pionic atoms, it should provide some hint on binding energies and level widths of deeply bound states. The width of the ls state comes out to be 0.3 MeV and is well separated from the rest. The charge dependence of the ls state is investigated. The binding energies and the widths increase linearly with Z azbove a Z of 30. The report then discusses various methods to populate deeply bound pionic atoms. In particular, 'pion exchange' reactions are proposed. (n, pπ) reaction is discussed first. The cross section is calculated by assuming the in- and out-going nucleons on-shell and the produced pion in (n1) pionic atom states. Then, (n, dπ - ) cross sections are estimated. (p, 2 Heπ - ) reaction would have cross sections similar to the cross section of (n, dπ - ) reaction. In conclusion, it seems best to do (n, p) experiment on heavy nuclei for deeply bound pionic atom. (Nogami, K.)

Inter-Rater Reliability and Downstream Financial Implications of Electrocardiography Screening in Young Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhutia, Harshil; Malhotra, Aneil; Yeo, Tee Joo; Ster, Irina Chis; Gabus, Vincent; Steriotis, Alexandros; Dores, Helder; Mellor, Greg; García-Corrales, Carmen; Ensam, Bode; Jayalapan, Viknesh; Ezzat, Vivienne Anne; Finocchiaro, Gherardo; Gati, Sabiha; Papadakis, Michael; Tome-Esteban, Maria; Sharma, Sanjay

2017-08-01

Preparticipation screening for cardiovascular disease in young athletes with electrocardiography is endorsed by the European Society of Cardiology and several major sporting organizations. One of the concerns of the ECG as a screening test in young athletes relates to the potential for variation in interpretation. We investigated the degree of variation in ECG interpretation in athletes and its financial impact among cardiologists of differing experience. Eight cardiologists (4 with experience in screening athletes) each reported 400 ECGs of consecutively screened young athletes according to the 2010 European Society of Cardiology recommendations, Seattle criteria, and refined criteria. Cohen κ coefficient was used to calculate interobserver reliability. Cardiologists proposed secondary investigations after ECG interpretation, the costs of which were based on the UK National Health Service tariffs. Inexperienced cardiologists were more likely to classify an ECG as abnormal compared with experienced cardiologists (odds ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-2.02). Modification of ECG interpretation criteria improved interobserver reliability for categorizing an ECG as abnormal from poor (2010 European Society of Cardiology recommendations; κ=0.15) to moderate (refined criteria; κ=0.41) among inexperienced cardiologists; however, interobserver reliability was moderate for all 3 criteria among experienced cardiologists (κ=0.40-0.53). Inexperienced cardiologists were more likely to refer athletes for further evaluation compared with experienced cardiologists (odds ratio, 4.74; 95% confidence interval, 3.50-6.43) with poorer interobserver reliability (κ=0.22 versus κ=0.47). Interobserver reliability for secondary investigations after ECG interpretation ranged from poor to fair among inexperienced cardiologists (κ=0.15-0.30) and fair to moderate among experienced cardiologists (κ=0.21-0.46). The cost of cardiovascular evaluation per athlete was $175 (95

Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

2015-01-01

This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

Validation of an instrument to assess evidence-based practice knowledge, attitudes, access, and confidence in the dental environment.

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Hendricson, William D; Rugh, John D; Hatch, John P; Stark, Debra L; Deahl, Thomas; Wallmann, Elizabeth R

2011-02-01

This article reports the validation of an assessment instrument designed to measure the outcomes of training in evidence-based practice (EBP) in the context of dentistry. Four EBP dimensions are measured by this instrument: 1) understanding of EBP concepts, 2) attitudes about EBP, 3) evidence-accessing methods, and 4) confidence in critical appraisal. The instrument-the Knowledge, Attitudes, Access, and Confidence Evaluation (KACE)-has four scales, with a total of thirty-five items: EBP knowledge (ten items), EBP attitudes (ten), accessing evidence (nine), and confidence (six). Four elements of validity were assessed: consistency of items within the KACE scales (extent to which items within a scale measure the same dimension), discrimination (capacity to detect differences between individuals with different training or experience), responsiveness (capacity to detect the effects of education on trainees), and test-retest reliability. Internal consistency of scales was assessed by analyzing responses of second-year dental students, dental residents, and dental faculty members using Cronbach coefficient alpha, a statistical measure of reliability. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing KACE scores for the three groups. Responsiveness was assessed by comparing pre- and post-training responses for dental students and residents. To measure test-retest reliability, the full KACE was completed twice by a class of freshman dental students seventeen days apart, and the knowledge scale was completed twice by sixteen faculty members fourteen days apart. Item-to-scale consistency ranged from 0.21 to 0.78 for knowledge, 0.57 to 0.83 for attitude, 0.70 to 0.84 for accessing evidence, and 0.87 to 0.94 for confidence. For discrimination, ANOVA and post hoc testing by the Tukey-Kramer method revealed significant score differences among students, residents, and faculty members consistent with education and experience levels. For responsiveness to training, dental students

Bounding species distribution models

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Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].

Bounding Species Distribution Models

Science.gov (United States)

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

2011-01-01

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

Determination of a lower bound on Earth's climate sensitivity

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STEPHEN E. Schwartz

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Transient and equilibrium sensitivity of Earth's climate has been calculated using global temperature, forcing and heating rate data for the period 1970–2010. We have assumed increased long-wave radiative forcing in the period due to the increase of the long-lived greenhouse gases. By assuming the change in aerosol forcing in the period to be zero, we calculate what we consider to be lower bounds to these sensitivities, as the magnitude of the negative aerosol forcing is unlikely to have diminished in this period. The radiation imbalance necessary to calculate equilibrium sensitivity is estimated from the rate of ocean heat accumulation as 0.37±0.03 W m−2 (all uncertainty estimates are 1−σ. With these data, we obtain best estimates for transient climate sensitivity 0.39±0.07 K (W m−2−1 and equilibrium climate sensitivity 0.54±0.14 K (W m−2−1, equivalent to 1.5±0.3 and 2.0±0.5 K (3.7 W m−2−1, respectively. The latter quantity is equal to the lower bound of the ‘likely’ range for this quantity given by the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report. The uncertainty attached to the lower-bound equilibrium sensitivity permits us to state, within the assumptions of this analysis, that the equilibrium sensitivity is greater than 0.31 K (W m−2−1, equivalent to 1.16 K (3.7 W m−2−1, at the 95% confidence level.

Developing Reliable Life Support for Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Harry W.

2017-01-01

A human mission to Mars will require highly reliable life support systems. Mars life support systems may recycle water and oxygen using systems similar to those on the International Space Station (ISS). However, achieving sufficient reliability is less difficult for ISS than it will be for Mars. If an ISS system has a serious failure, it is possible to provide spare parts, or directly supply water or oxygen, or if necessary bring the crew back to Earth. Life support for Mars must be designed, tested, and improved as needed to achieve high demonstrated reliability. A quantitative reliability goal should be established and used to guide development t. The designers should select reliable components and minimize interface and integration problems. In theory a system can achieve the component-limited reliability, but testing often reveal unexpected failures due to design mistakes or flawed components. Testing should extend long enough to detect any unexpected failure modes and to verify the expected reliability. Iterated redesign and retest may be required to achieve the reliability goal. If the reliability is less than required, it may be improved by providing spare components or redundant systems. The number of spares required to achieve a given reliability goal depends on the component failure rate. If the failure rate is under estimated, the number of spares will be insufficient and the system may fail. If the design is likely to have undiscovered design or component problems, it is advisable to use dissimilar redundancy, even though this multiplies the design and development cost. In the ideal case, a human tended closed system operational test should be conducted to gain confidence in operations, maintenance, and repair. The difficulty in achieving high reliability in unproven complex systems may require the use of simpler, more mature, intrinsically higher reliability systems. The limitations of budget, schedule, and technology may suggest accepting lower and

Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

2012-01-01

It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

Effect of imperfect knowledge of hazards on the reliability of concrete face rockfill dam and breakwater

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. De León–Escobedo

2008-07-01

Full Text Available A formulation to treat aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, in a separate way, on infrastructures is proposed and applied to a dam and a breakwater in Mexico. The purpose of that is to de termine 2nd order bounds on the reliability estimation due to the in complete knowledge of some design parameters. These bounds provide a quantitative basis for risk management according to the risk–aversion of owners and operators of the infrastructure. Also, acceptable values of reliability, are assessed in terms of consequences costs, and an initial cost curve for a breakwater is presented, as they may contribute to enhance the decision making process.The in corporation of epistemic uncertainty makes the reliability index to become a random variable and its his to gram is obtained to estimate percentiles as a means to measure a new additional room for decisions as compared to the traditionally used mean value of the reliability. Conservative decisions are illustrated for design and assessment of structures like a dam and a breakwater.The procedure involves a double loop of Monte Carlo simulation and represents a basis for the optimal design and risk management of dams and breakwaters.

Labeling schemes for bounded degree graphs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adjiashvili, David; Rotbart, Noy Galil

2014-01-01

We investigate adjacency labeling schemes for graphs of bounded degree Δ = O(1). In particular, we present an optimal (up to an additive constant) log n + O(1) adjacency labeling scheme for bounded degree trees. The latter scheme is derived from a labeling scheme for bounded degree outerplanar...... graphs. Our results complement a similar bound recently obtained for bounded depth trees [Fraigniaud and Korman, SODA 2010], and may provide new insights for closing the long standing gap for adjacency in trees [Alstrup and Rauhe, FOCS 2002]. We also provide improved labeling schemes for bounded degree...

Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

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Kleitman Sabina

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

An upper and lower bound of the Medication Possession Ratio

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Sperber CM

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Christian M Sperber, Suren R Samarasinghe, Grace P Lomax Patient Connect Limited, Guildford, UK Background: The Medication Possession Ratio (MPR is a ubiquitous and central measurement for adherence in the health care industry. However, attempts to standardize its calculation have failed, possibly due to the opacity of a single, static MPR, incapability of directly lending itself to a variety of studies, and challenges of comparing the value across studies. This work shows that the MPR strictly depends on the length of the time interval over which it is measured as well as on the dominant dispense quantity for short time intervals. Furthermore, removing a proportion of the patient cohort based on the number of acquisitions may also have a severe impact on the MPR. Therefore, it is suggested that the MPR is represented as a trend over a range of time intervals. To this end, an upper and lower bound of the MPR trend is developed with an upper bound acknowledging patients who change their treatment and the lower bound acknowledging patients who discontinue their treatment.Purpose: Introducing a representation of the MPR value as a trend rather than a static number by developing a quantitative description of an upper and lower bound of the MPR trend, while shedding light on the impacts on prefiltering the patient cohort.Patients and methods: Anonymized patient-level data was utilized as an example for a suggested calculation of an upper and lower bound of the MPR.Results: Representation of the MPR for a predefined time interval precludes a reliable MPR assessment. A quantitative approach is suggested to generate an upper and lower trend of the MPR while emphasizing the impact on removing patients with a limited number of acquisitions.Conclusion: An upper and lower trend makes the MPR more transparent and allows a better comparison across different studies. Removing patients with a limited number of acquisitions should be avoided. Keywords: MPR

Protein Correlation Profiles Identify Lipid Droplet Proteins with High Confidence*

Science.gov (United States)

Krahmer, Natalie; Hilger, Maximiliane; Kory, Nora; Wilfling, Florian; Stoehr, Gabriele; Mann, Matthias; Farese, Robert V.; Walther, Tobias C.

2013-01-01

Lipid droplets (LDs) are important organelles in energy metabolism and lipid storage. Their cores are composed of neutral lipids that form a hydrophobic phase and are surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer that harbors specific proteins. Most well-established LD proteins perform important functions, particularly in cellular lipid metabolism. Morphological studies show LDs in close proximity to and interacting with membrane-bound cellular organelles, including the endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondria, peroxisomes, and endosomes. Because of these close associations, it is difficult to purify LDs to homogeneity. Consequently, the confident identification of bona fide LD proteins via proteomics has been challenging. Here, we report a methodology for LD protein identification based on mass spectrometry and protein correlation profiles. Using LD purification and quantitative, high-resolution mass spectrometry, we identified LD proteins by correlating their purification profiles to those of known LD proteins. Application of the protein correlation profile strategy to LDs isolated from Drosophila S2 cells led to the identification of 111 LD proteins in a cellular LD fraction in which 1481 proteins were detected. LD localization was confirmed in a subset of identified proteins via microscopy of the expressed proteins, thereby validating the approach. Among the identified LD proteins were both well-characterized LD proteins and proteins not previously known to be localized to LDs. Our method provides a high-confidence LD proteome of Drosophila cells and a novel approach that can be applied to identify LD proteins of other cell types and tissues. PMID:23319140

Conformal prediction for reliable machine learning theory, adaptations and applications

CERN Document Server

Balasubramanian, Vineeth; Vovk, Vladimir

2014-01-01

The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detecti

Reliability technology and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.; Kaplan, S.

1976-01-01

This paper reviews some of the history and status of nuclear reliability and the evolution of this subject from art towards science. It shows that that probability theory is the appropriate and essential mathematical language of this subject. The authors emphasize that it is more useful to view probability not as a $prime$frequency$prime$, i.e., not as the result of a statistical experiment, but rather as a measure of state of confidence or a state of knowledge. They also show that the probabilistic, quantitative approach has a considerable history of application in the electric power industry in the area of power system planning. Finally, the authors show that the decision theory notion of utility provides a point of view from which risks, benefits, safety, and reliability can be viewed in a unified way thus facilitating understanding, comparison, and communication. 29 refs

Estimating the reliability of eyewitness identifications from police lineups.

Science.gov (United States)

Wixted, John T; Mickes, Laura; Dunn, John C; Clark, Steven E; Wells, William

2016-01-12

Laboratory-based mock crime studies have often been interpreted to mean that (i) eyewitness confidence in an identification made from a lineup is a weak indicator of accuracy and (ii) sequential lineups are diagnostically superior to traditional simultaneous lineups. Largely as a result, juries are increasingly encouraged to disregard eyewitness confidence, and up to 30% of law enforcement agencies in the United States have adopted the sequential procedure. We conducted a field study of actual eyewitnesses who were assigned to simultaneous or sequential photo lineups in the Houston Police Department over a 1-y period. Identifications were made using a three-point confidence scale, and a signal detection model was used to analyze and interpret the results. Our findings suggest that (i) confidence in an eyewitness identification from a fair lineup is a highly reliable indicator of accuracy and (ii) if there is any difference in diagnostic accuracy between the two lineup formats, it likely favors the simultaneous procedure.

Space solar array reliability: A study and recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.; Rodiek, Julie A.

2008-12-01

Providing reliable power over the anticipated mission life is critical to all satellites; therefore solar arrays are one of the most vital links to satellite mission success. Furthermore, solar arrays are exposed to the harshest environment of virtually any satellite component. In the past 10 years 117 satellite solar array anomalies have been recorded with 12 resulting in total satellite failure. Through an in-depth analysis of satellite anomalies listed in the Airclaim's Ascend SpaceTrak database, it is clear that solar array reliability is a serious, industry-wide issue. Solar array reliability directly affects the cost of future satellites through increased insurance premiums and a lack of confidence by investors. Recommendations for improving reliability through careful ground testing, standardization of testing procedures such as the emerging AIAA standards, and data sharing across the industry will be discussed. The benefits of creating a certified module and array testing facility that would certify in-space reliability will also be briefly examined. Solar array reliability is an issue that must be addressed to both reduce costs and ensure continued viability of the commercial and government assets on orbit.

Scattering by bound nucleons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tezuka, Hirokazu.

1984-10-01

Scattering of a particle by bound nucleons is discussed. Effects of nucleons that are bound in a nucleus are taken as a structure function. The way how to calculate the structure function is given. (author)

Increasing Confidence and Ability in Implementing Kangaroo Mother Care Method Among Young Mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenanga Purbasary, Eleni; Rustina, Yeni; Budiarti, Tri

Mothers giving birth to low birth weight babies (LBWBs) have low confidence in caring for their babies because they are often still young and may lack the knowledge, experience, and ability to care for the baby. This research aims to determine the effect of education about kangaroo mother care (KMC) on the confidence and ability of young mothers to implement KMC. The research methodology used was a controlled-random experimental approach with pre- and post-test equivalent groups of 13 mothers and their LBWBs in the intervention group and 13 mothers and their LBWBs in the control group. Data were collected via an instrument measuring young mothers' confidence, the validity and reliability of which have been tested with a resulting r value of .941, and an observation sheet on KMC implementation. After conducting the education, the confidence score of young mothers and their ability to perform KMC increased meaningfully. The score of confidence of young mothers before education was 37 (p = .1555: and the ability score for KMC Implementation before education was 9 (p = .1555). The median score of confidence of young mothers after education in the intervention group was 87 and in the control group was 50 (p = .001, 95% CI 60.36-75.56), and ability median score for KMC implementation after education in the intervention group was 16 and in the control group was 12 (p = .001, 95% CI 1.50-1.88). KMC education should be conducted gradually, and it is necessary to involve the family, in order for KMC implementation to continue at home. A family visit can be done for LBWBs to evaluate the ability of the young mothers to implement KMC.

Bounds for Asian basket options

Science.gov (United States)

Deelstra, Griselda; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vanmaele, Michèle

2008-09-01

In this paper we propose pricing bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework. We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach for deriving upper and lower bounds for stop-loss premia of sums of non-independent random variables as in Kaas et al. [Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables, Insurance Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151-168] or Dhaene et al. [The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory, Insurance Math. Econom. 31(1) (2002) 3-33]. We generalize the methods in Deelstra et al. [Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning, Insurance Math. Econom. 34 (2004) 55-57] and Vanmaele et al. [Bounds for the price of discrete sampled arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 185(1) (2006) 51-90]. Afterwards we show how to derive an analytical closed-form expression for a lower bound in the non-comonotonic case. Finally, we derive upper bounds for Asian basket options by applying techniques as in Thompson [Fast narrow bounds on the value of Asian options, Working Paper, University of Cambridge, 1999] and Lord [Partially exact and bounded approximations for arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Finance 10 (2) (2006) 1-52]. Numerical results are included and on the basis of our numerical tests, we explain which method we recommend depending on moneyness and time-to-maturity.

A reliable, delay bounded and less complex communication protocol for multicluster FANETs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wajiya Zafar

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Recently, Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs, enabling ad-hoc networking between Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs is gaining importance in several military and civilian applications. The sensitivity of the applications requires adaptive; efficient; delay bounded and scalable communication network among UAVs for data transmission. Due to communication protocol complexity; rigidity; cost of commercial-off-the-shelf (COT components; limited radio bandwidth; high mobility and computational resources; maintaining the desired level of Quality of Service (QoS becomes a daunting task. For the first time in this research we propose multicluster FANETs for efficient network management; the proposed scheme considerably reduces communication cost and optimizes network performance as well as exploit low power; less complex and low cost IEEE 802.15.4 (MAC protocol for intercluster and intracluster communication. In this research both beacon enabled mode and beaconless modes have been investigated with Guaranteed Time Slots (GTS and virtual Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA respectively. The methodology plays a key role towards reserving bandwidth for latency critical applications; eliminate collisions and medium access delays. Moreover analysis ad-hoc routing protocols including two proactive (OLSR, DSDV and one reactive (AODV is also presented. The results shows that the proposed scheme guarantees high packet delivery ratios while maintaining acceptable levels of latency requirements comparable with more complex and dedicatedly designed protocols in literature.

Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

OpenAIRE

Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

2012-01-01

It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...

Market access through bound tariffs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sala, Davide; Yalcin, Erdal; Schröder, Philipp

2010-01-01

on the risk that exporters face in destination markets. The present paper formalizes the underlying interaction of risk, fixed export costs and firms' market entry decisions based on techniques known from the real options literature; doing so we highlight the important role of bound tariffs at the extensive...... margin of trade. We find that bound tariffs are more effective with higher risk destination markets, that a large binding overhang may still command substantial market access, and that reductions in bound tariffs generate effective market access even when bound rates are above current and longterm...

Market Access through Bound Tariffs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sala, Davide; Schröder, Philipp J.H.; Yalcin, Erdal

on the risk that exporters face in destination markets. The present paper formalizes the underlying interaction of risk, fixed export costs and firms' market entry decisions based on techniques known from the real options literature; doing so we highlight the important role of bound tariffs at the extensive...... margin of trade. We find that bound tariffs are more effective with higher risk destination markets, that a large binding overhang may still command substantial market access, and that reductions in bound tariffs generate effective market access even when bound rates are above current and long...

Design, validation, and reliability of survey to measure female athlete triad knowledge among coaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jillian E. Frideres

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to design and to test the validity and reliability of an instrument to evaluate coaches' knowledge about the female athlete triad syndrome and their confidence in this knowledge. The instrument collects information regarding: knowledge of the syndrome, components, prevention and intervention; confidence of the coaches in their answers; and coach's characteristics (gender, degree held, years of experience in coaching females, continuing education participation specific to the syndrome and its components, and sport coached. The process of designing the questionnaire and testing the validity and reliability of it was done in four phases: a design and development of the instrument, b content validity, c instrument reliability, and d concurrent validity. The results show that the instrument is suitable for measuring coaches' female athlete triad knowledge. The instrument can contribute to assessing the coaches' knowledge level in relation to this topic.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

Science.gov (United States)

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Reliability and Validity Study of the Attitude towards Mathematics Instruments Short Form

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Güney HACIÖMEROĞLU

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability and validity of the Turkish form of the Attitude Towards Mathematics Instrument Short Form developed by Lim and Chapman (2013. In this study, data gathered from 310 elementary students were utilized for Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis to determine the structure of factor loading. The factor loading among the sub-scales were different from original. Confirmatory Factor analysis revealed that the model was acceptable. There were three sub-scales, value, self-confidence, enjoyment and motivation. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the overall instrument was calculated as .84, respectively. The adapted instrument includes three sub-scales: value (α=.91, self-confidence (α=.86, enjoyment and motivation (α=.82. Turkish adaptation of the questionnaire is valid and reliable and appropriate to use in Turkish culture.

Bound and rebound states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orzalesi, C.A.

1979-01-01

In relativistic quantum theory, bound states generate forces in the crossed channel; such forces can affect the binding and self-consistent solutions should be sought for the bound-state problem. The author investigates how self-consistency can be achieved by successive approximations, in a simple scalar model and with successive relativistic eikonal approximations (EAs). Within the generalized ladder approximation, some exact properties of the resulting ''first generation'' bound states are discussed. The binding energies in this approximation are rather small even for rather large values of the primary coupling constant. The coupling of the constituent particles to the first-generation reggeon is determined by a suitable EA and a new generalized ladder amplitude is constructed with rungs given either by the primary gluons or by the first-generation reggeons. The resulting new (second-generation) bound states are found in a reggeized EA. The size of the corrections to the binding energies due to the rebinding effects is surprisingly large. The procedure is then iterated, so as to find - again in an EA - the third-generation bound states. The procedure is found to be self-consistent already at this stage: the third-generation bound states coincide with those of second generation, and no further rebinding takes place in the higher iterations of the approximation method. Features - good and bad - of the model are discussed, as well as the possible relevance of rebinding mechanisms in hadron dynamics. (author)

Bounds on long-lived charged massive particles from Big Bang nucleosynthesis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jedamzik, Karsten, E-mail: jedamzik@lpta.univ-montp2.fr [Laboratoire de Physique Mathémathique et Théorique, CNRS, Université de Montpellier II, F-34095 Montpellier Cedex 5 (France)

2008-03-01

The Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) process in the presence of charged massive particles (CHAMPs) is studied in detail. All currently known effects due to the existence of bound states between CHAMPs and nuclei, including possible late-time destruction of {sup 6}Li and {sup 7}Li, are included. The study sets conservative bounds on CHAMP abundances in the decay time range 3×10{sup 2} s∼<τ{sub x}∼<10{sup 12} s. It is stressed that the production of {sup 6}Li at early times T∼10 keV is overestimated by a factor ∼10 when the approximation of the Saha equation for the {sup 4}He bound state fraction is utilized. To obtain conservative limits on the abundance of CHAMPs, a Monte Carlo analysis with ∼3 × 10{sup 6} independent BBN runs, varying the reaction rates of 19 different reactions, is performed. The analysis yields the surprising result that, except for small areas in the particle parameter space, conservative constraints on the abundance of decaying charged particles are currently very close to those of neutral particles. It is shown that, in the case that the rates of a number of heretofore unconsidered reactions may be determined reliably in the future, it is conceivable that the limit on CHAMPs in the early Universe could be tightened by orders of magnitude.

Bounds on long-lived charged massive particles from Big Bang nucleosynthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Jedamzik, Karsten

2008-03-01

The Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) process in the presence of charged massive particles (CHAMPs) is studied in detail. All currently known effects due to the existence of bound states between CHAMPs and nuclei, including possible late-time destruction of 6Li and 7Li, are included. The study sets conservative bounds on CHAMP abundances in the decay time range 3\\times 10^2~\\mathrm {s}\\lesssim \\tau_x\\lesssim 10^{12}~\\mathrm {s} . It is stressed that the production of 6Li at early times T~10 keV is overestimated by a factor ~10 when the approximation of the Saha equation for the 4He bound state fraction is utilized. To obtain conservative limits on the abundance of CHAMPs, a Monte Carlo analysis with ~3 × 106 independent BBN runs, varying the reaction rates of 19 different reactions, is performed. The analysis yields the surprising result that, except for small areas in the particle parameter space, conservative constraints on the abundance of decaying charged particles are currently very close to those of neutral particles. It is shown that, in the case that the rates of a number of heretofore unconsidered reactions may be determined reliably in the future, it is conceivable that the limit on CHAMPs in the early Universe could be tightened by orders of magnitude.

Sample Size Bounding and Context Ranking as Approaches to the Human Error Quantification Problem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reer, B

2004-03-01

The paper describes a technique denoted as Sub-Sample-Size Bounding (SSSB), which is useable for the statistical derivation of context-specific probabilities from data available in existing reports on operating experience. Applications to human reliability analysis (HRA) are emphasised in the presentation of this technique. Exemplified by a sample of 180 abnormal event sequences, the manner in which SSSB can provide viable input for the quantification of errors of commission (EOCs) are outlined. (author)

Sample Size Bounding and Context Ranking as Approaches to the Human Error Quantification Problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reer, B.

2004-01-01

The paper describes a technique denoted as Sub-Sample-Size Bounding (SSSB), which is useable for the statistical derivation of context-specific probabilities from data available in existing reports on operating experience. Applications to human reliability analysis (HRA) are emphasised in the presentation of this technique. Exemplified by a sample of 180 abnormal event sequences, the manner in which SSSB can provide viable input for the quantification of errors of commission (EOCs) are outlined. (author)

The Model Confidence Set

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....

Reliability in individual monitoring service.

Science.gov (United States)

Mod Ali, N

2011-03-01

As a laboratory certified to ISO 9001:2008 and accredited to ISO/IEC 17025, the Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL)-Nuclear Malaysia has incorporated an overall comprehensive system for technical and quality management in promoting a reliable individual monitoring service (IMS). Faster identification and resolution of issues regarding dosemeter preparation and issuing of reports, personnel enhancement, improved customer satisfaction and overall efficiency of laboratory activities are all results of the implementation of an effective quality system. Review of these measures and responses to observed trends provide continuous improvement of the system. By having these mechanisms, reliability of the IMS can be assured in the promotion of safe behaviour at all levels of the workforce utilising ionising radiation facilities. Upgradation of in the reporting program through a web-based e-SSDL marks a major improvement in Nuclear Malaysia's IMS reliability on the whole. The system is a vital step in providing a user friendly and effective occupational exposure evaluation program in the country. It provides a higher level of confidence in the results generated for occupational dose monitoring of the IMS, thus, enhances the status of the radiation protection framework of the country.

Reliability and Failure Modes of a Hybrid Ceramic Abutment Prototype.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Nelson Rfa; Teixeira, Hellen S; Silveira, Lucas M; Bonfante, Estevam A; Coelho, Paulo G; Thompson, Van P

2018-01-01

A ceramic and metal abutment prototype was fatigue tested to determine the probability of survival at various loads. Lithium disilicate CAD-milled abutments (n = 24) were cemented to titanium sleeve inserts and then screw attached to titanium fixtures. The assembly was then embedded at a 30° angle in polymethylmethacrylate. Each (n = 24) was restored with a resin-cemented machined lithium disilicate all-ceramic central incisor crown. Single load (lingual-incisal contact) to failure was determined for three specimens. Fatigue testing (n = 21) was conducted employing the step-stress method with lingual mouth motion loading. Failures were recorded, and reliability calculations were performed using proprietary software. Probability Weibull curves were calculated with 90% confidence bounds. Fracture modes were classified with a stereomicroscope, and representative samples imaged with scanning electron microscopy. Fatigue results indicated that the limiting factor in the current design is the fatigue strength of the abutment screw, where screw fracture often leads to failure of the abutment metal sleeve and/or cracking in the implant fixture. Reliability for completion of a mission at 200 N load for 50K cycles was 0.38 (0.52% to 0.25 90% CI) and for 100K cycles was only 0.12 (0.26 to 0.05)-only 12% predicted to survive. These results are similar to those from previous studies on metal to metal abutment/fixture systems where screw failure is a limitation. No ceramic crown or ceramic abutment initiated fractures occurred, supporting the research hypothesis. The limiting factor in performance was the screw failure in the metal-to-metal connection between the prototyped abutment and the fixture, indicating that this configuration should function clinically with no abutment ceramic complications. The combined ceramic with titanium sleeve abutment prototype performance was limited by the fatigue degradation of the abutment screw. In fatigue, no ceramic crown or ceramic

Pareto upper confidence bounds algorithms : an empirical study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Drugan, M.M.; Nowé, A.; Manderick, B.

2014-01-01

Many real-world stochastic environments are inherently multi-objective environments with conflicting objectives. The multi-objective multi-armed bandits (MOMAB) are extensions of the classical, i.e. single objective, multi-armed bandits to reward vectors and multi-objective optimisation techniques

Metabolism of organically bound tritium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1984-01-01

The classic methodology for estimating dose to man from environmental tritium ignores the fact that organically bound tritium in foodstuffs may be directly assimilated in the bound compartment of tissues without previous oxidation. We propose a four-compartment model consisting of a free body water compartment, two organic compartments, and a small, rapidly metabolizing compartment. The utility of this model lies in the ability to input organically bound tritium in foodstuffs directly into the organic compartments of the model. We found that organically bound tritium in foodstuffs can increase cumulative total body dose by a factor of 1.7 to 4.5 times the free body water dose alone, depending on the bound-to-loose ratio of tritium in the diet. Model predictions are compared with empirical measurements of tritium in human urine and tissue samples, and appear to be in close agreement. 10 references, 4 figures, 3 tables

Containment and Consensus-based Distributed Coordination Control for Voltage Bound and Reactive Power Sharing in AC Microgrid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Han, Renke; Meng, Lexuan; Ferrari-Trecate, Giancarlo

2017-01-01

This paper offers a highly flexible and reliable control strategy to achieve voltage bounded regulation and accurate reactive power sharing coordinately in AC Micro-Grids. A containment and consensus-based distributed coordination controller is proposed, by which each output voltage magnitude can...... be bounded within a reasonable range and the accurate reactive power sharing among distributed generators can be also achieved. Combined with the two proposed controllers and electrical part of the AC Micro-Grid, a small signal model is fully developed to analyze the sensitivity of different control...... parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed controller in case of load variation, communication failure, plug-and-play capability are verified by the experimental setup as an islanded Micro-Grid....

Bound states in string nets

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Marc Daniel; Dusuel, Sébastien; Vidal, Julien

2016-11-01

We discuss the emergence of bound states in the low-energy spectrum of the string-net Hamiltonian in the presence of a string tension. In the ladder geometry, we show that a single bound state arises either for a finite tension or in the zero-tension limit depending on the theory considered. In the latter case, we perturbatively compute the binding energy as a function of the total quantum dimension. We also address this issue in the honeycomb lattice where the number of bound states in the topological phase depends on the total quantum dimension. Finally, the internal structure of these bound states is analyzed in the zero-tension limit.

Confidence in critical care nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

2010-10-01

The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

2012-03-01

Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

Bounding approaches to system identification

CERN Document Server

Norton, John; Piet-Lahanier, Hélène; Walter, Éric

1996-01-01

In response to the growing interest in bounding error approaches, the editors of this volume offer the first collection of papers to describe advances in techniques and applications of bounding of the parameters, or state variables, of uncertain dynamical systems. Contributors explore the application of the bounding approach as an alternative to the probabilistic analysis of such systems, relating its importance to robust control-system design.

Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

2015-01-01

Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

The Berg Balance Scale has high intra- and inter-rater reliability but absolute reliability varies across the scale: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Downs, Stephen; Marquez, Jodie; Chiarelli, Pauline

2013-06-01

What is the intra-rater and inter-rater relative reliability of the Berg Balance Scale? What is the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale? Does the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale vary across the scale? Systematic review with meta-analysis of reliability studies. Any clinical population that has undergone assessment with the Berg Balance Scale. Relative intra-rater reliability, relative inter-rater reliability, and absolute reliability. Eleven studies involving 668 participants were included in the review. The relative intrarater reliability of the Berg Balance Scale was high, with a pooled estimate of 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 0.99). Relative inter-rater reliability was also high, with a pooled estimate of 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.98). A ceiling effect of the Berg Balance Scale was evident for some participants. In the analysis of absolute reliability, all of the relevant studies had an average score of 20 or above on the 0 to 56 point Berg Balance Scale. The absolute reliability across this part of the scale, as measured by the minimal detectable change with 95% confidence, varied between 2.8 points and 6.6 points. The Berg Balance Scale has a higher absolute reliability when close to 56 points due to the ceiling effect. We identified no data that estimated the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale among participants with a mean score below 20 out of 56. The Berg Balance Scale has acceptable reliability, although it might not detect modest, clinically important changes in balance in individual subjects. The review was only able to comment on the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale among people with moderately poor to normal balance. Copyright © 2013 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Bounded Intention Planning Revisited

OpenAIRE

Sievers Silvan; Wehrle Martin; Helmert Malte

2014-01-01

Bounded intention planning provides a pruning technique for optimal planning that has been proposed several years ago. In addition partial order reduction techniques based on stubborn sets have recently been investigated for this purpose. In this paper we revisit bounded intention planning in the view of stubborn sets.

Bounded Gaussian process regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Larsen, Jan

2013-01-01

We extend the Gaussian process (GP) framework for bounded regression by introducing two bounded likelihood functions that model the noise on the dependent variable explicitly. This is fundamentally different from the implicit noise assumption in the previously suggested warped GP framework. We...... with the proposed explicit noise-model extension....

A symmetric Roos bound for linear codes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duursma, I.M.; Pellikaan, G.R.

2006-01-01

The van Lint–Wilson AB-method yields a short proof of the Roos bound for the minimum distance of a cyclic code. We use the AB-method to obtain a different bound for the weights of a linear code. In contrast to the Roos bound, the role of the codes A and B in our bound is symmetric. We use the bound

The reliability of structural systems operating at high temperature: Replacing engineering judgement with operational experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevalier, M.J.; Smith, D.J.; Dean, D.W.

2012-01-01

Deterministic assessments are used to assess the integrity of structural systems operating at high temperature by providing a lower bound lifetime prediction, requiring considerable engineering judgement. However such a result may not satisfy the structural integrity assessment purpose if the results are overly conservative or conversely plant observations (such as failures) could undermine the assessment result if observed before the lower bound lifetime. This paper develops a reliability methodology for high temperature assessments and illustrates the impact and importance of managing the uncertainties within such an analysis. This is done by separating uncertainties into three classifications; aleatory uncertainty, quantifiable epistemic uncertainty and unquantifiable epistemic uncertainty. The result is a reliability model that can predict the behaviour of a structural system based upon plant observations, including failure and survival data. This can be used to reduce the over reliance upon engineering judgement which is prevalent in deterministic assessments. Highlights: ► Deterministic assessments are shown to be heavily reliant upon engineering judgment. ► Based upon the R5 procedure, a reliability model for a structural system is developed. ► Variables must be classified as either aleatory or epistemic to model their impact on reliability. ► Operation experience is then used to reduce reliance upon engineering judgment. ► This results in a model which can predict system behaviour and learn from operational experience.

Bounded Tamper Resilience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Faust, Sebastian; Mukherjee, Pratyay

2013-01-01

Related key attacks (RKAs) are powerful cryptanalytic attacks where an adversary can change the secret key and observe the effect of such changes at the output. The state of the art in RKA security protects against an a-priori unbounded number of certain algebraic induced key relations, e.......g., affine functions or polynomials of bounded degree. In this work, we show that it is possible to go beyond the algebraic barrier and achieve security against arbitrary key relations, by restricting the number of tampering queries the adversary is allowed to ask for. The latter restriction is necessary......-protocols (including the Okamoto scheme, for instance) are secure even if the adversary can arbitrarily tamper with the prover’s state a bounded number of times and obtain some bounded amount of leakage. Interestingly, for the Okamoto scheme we can allow also independent tampering with the public parameters. We show...

P2-16: Dual-Bound Model and the Role of Time Bound in Perceptual Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daeseob Lim

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The diffusion model (DM encapsulates the dynamics of perceptual decision within a ‘diffusion field’ that is defined by a basis with sensory-evidence (SE and time vectors. At the core of the DM, it assumes that a decision is not made until an evidence particle drifts in the diffusion field and eventually hits one of the two pre-fixed bounds defined in the SE axis. This assumption dictates when and which choice is made by referring to when and which bound will be hit by the evidence particle. What if urgency pressures the decision system to make a choice even when the evidence particle has yet hit the SE bound? Previous modeling attempts at coping with time pressure, despite differences in detail, all manipulated the coordinate of SE bounds. Here, we offer a novel solution by adopting another bound on the time axis. This ‘dual-bound’ model (DBM posits that decisions can also be made when the evidence particle hits a time bound, which is determined on a trial-by-trial basis by a ‘perceived time interval’ – how long the system can stay in the ‘diffusion’ field. The classic single-bound model (SBM exhibited systematic errors in predicting both the reaction time distributions and the time-varying bias in choice. Those errors were not corrected by previously proposed variants of the SBM until the time bound was introduced. The validity of the DBM was further supported by the strong across-individual correlation between observed precision of interval timing and the predicted trial-by-trial variability of the time bound.

Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

Bounds on survival probability given mean probability of failure per demand; and the paradoxical advantages of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strigini, Lorenzo; Wright, David

2014-01-01

When deciding whether to accept into service a new safety-critical system, or choosing between alternative systems, uncertainty about the parameters that affect future failure probability may be a major problem. This uncertainty can be extreme if there is the possibility of unknown design errors (e.g. in software), or wide variation between nominally equivalent components. We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on future reliability (survival probability), for systems required to have low risk of even only one failure or accident over the long term (e.g. their whole operational lifetime) and characterised by a single reliability parameter (e.g. probability of failure per demand – pfd). A complete mathematical treatment requires stating a probability distribution for any parameter with uncertain value. This is hard, so calculations are often performed using point estimates, like the expected value. We investigate conditions under which such simplified descriptions yield reliability values that are sure to be pessimistic (or optimistic) bounds for a prediction based on the true distribution. Two important observations are (i) using the expected value of the reliability parameter as its true value guarantees a pessimistic estimate of reliability, a useful property in most safety-related decisions; (ii) with a given expected pfd, broader distributions (in a formally defined meaning of “broader”), that is, systems that are a priori “less predictable”, lower the risk of failures or accidents. Result (i) justifies the simplification of using a mean in reliability modelling; we discuss within which scope this justification applies, and explore related scenarios, e.g. how things improve if we can test the system before operation. Result (ii) not only offers more flexible ways of bounding reliability predictions, but also has important, often counter-intuitive implications for decision making in various areas, like selection of components, project management

Reliability engineering. Theory and practice. 6. ed.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Birolini, Alessandro

2010-07-01

This book shows how to build in, evaluate, and demonstrate reliability and availability of components, equipment, systems. It presents the state-of-the-art of reliability engineering, both in theory and practice, and is based on the author's 30 years experience in this field, half in industry and half as Professor of Reliability Engineering at the ETH, Zurich. The structure of the book allows rapid access to practical results. Besides extensions to cost models and approximate expressions, new in this edition are investigations on common cause failures, phased-mission systems, availability demonstration and estimation, confidence limits at system level, trend tests for early failures or wearout, as well as a review of maintenance strategies, an introduction to Petri nets and dynamic FTA, and a set of problems for home-work. Methods and tools are given in a way that they can be tailored to cover different reliability requirement levels and be used for safety analysis as well. This book is a textbook establishing a link between theory and practice, with a large number of tables, figures, and examples to support the practical aspects. (orig.)

Judged seriousness of environmental losses: reliability and cause of loss

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas C. Brown; Dawn Nannini; Robert B. Gorter; Paul A. Bell; George L. Peterson

2002-01-01

Public judgments of the seriousness of environmental losses were found to be internally consistent for most respondents, and largely unaffected by attempts to manipulate responses by altering the mix of losses being judged. Both findings enhance confidence in the feasibility of developing reliable rankings of the seriousness of environmental losses to aid resource...

Maximally reliable Markov chains under energy constraints.

Science.gov (United States)

Escola, Sean; Eisele, Michael; Miller, Kenneth; Paninski, Liam

2009-07-01

Signal-to-noise ratios in physical systems can be significantly degraded if the outputs of the systems are highly variable. Biological processes for which highly stereotyped signal generations are necessary features appear to have reduced their signal variabilities by employing multiple processing steps. To better understand why this multistep cascade structure might be desirable, we prove that the reliability of a signal generated by a multistate system with no memory (i.e., a Markov chain) is maximal if and only if the system topology is such that the process steps irreversibly through each state, with transition rates chosen such that an equal fraction of the total signal is generated in each state. Furthermore, our result indicates that by increasing the number of states, it is possible to arbitrarily increase the reliability of the system. In a physical system, however, an energy cost is associated with maintaining irreversible transitions, and this cost increases with the number of such transitions (i.e., the number of states). Thus, an infinite-length chain, which would be perfectly reliable, is infeasible. To model the effects of energy demands on the maximally reliable solution, we numerically optimize the topology under two distinct energy functions that penalize either irreversible transitions or incommunicability between states, respectively. In both cases, the solutions are essentially irreversible linear chains, but with upper bounds on the number of states set by the amount of available energy. We therefore conclude that a physical system for which signal reliability is important should employ a linear architecture, with the number of states (and thus the reliability) determined by the intrinsic energy constraints of the system.

Calcite encrustation in macro-algae Chara and its implication to the formation of carbonate-bound cadmium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siong, Kian; Asaeda, Takashi

2009-01-01

We studied the relationship between macro-algae Chara (Stoneworts) calcite (CaCO 3 ) encrustation and the speciation of cadmium (Cd) accumulated by the plant. Results showed that 17% of the total Cd (0.3 mg kg -1 ) accumulated by Chara fibrosa exposed to 1 μg Cd L -1 was carbonate-bound. The percentage of carbonate-bound Cd in the plant exposed to 10 μg Cd L -1 increased from 48% in young thalli (total Ca -1 , total Cd: 125 mg kg -1 ) to 63% in calcified mature thalli (total Ca: 190 mg g -1 ; total Cd: 134 mg kg -1 ). Based on mineral saturation calculation and reliability analysis of the sequential fractionation procedure, precipitation of otavite (CdCO 3 ) and co-precipitation of Cd with calcite, occurring in the alkaline regions of Chara cell wall, are probably the mechanisms of carbonate-bound Cd formation. Thick marl sediment frequently found beneath charophyte meadows suggests a long-term storage of Ca as well as the precipitated or co-precipitated Cd in the sediment after the plant senescence and decomposition.

Instanton bound states in ABJM theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hatsuda, Yasuyuki [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Moriyama, Sanefumi [Nagoya Univ. (Japan). Kobayashi Maskawa Inst. and Graduate School of Mathematics; Okuyama, Kazumi [Shinshu Univ., Matsumoto, Nagano (Japan). Dept. of Physics

2013-06-15

The partition function of the ABJM theory receives non-perturbative corrections due to instanton effects. We study these non-perturbative corrections, including bound states of worldsheet instantons and membrane instantons, in the Fermi-gas approach. We require that the total non-perturbative correction should be always finite for arbitrary Chern-Simons level. This finiteness is realized quite non-trivially because each bound state contribution naively diverges at some levels. The poles of each contribution should be canceled out in total. We use this pole cancellation mechanism to find unknown bound state corrections from known ones. We conjecture a general expression of the bound state contribution. Summing up all the bound state contributions, we find that the effect of bound states is simply incorporated into the worldsheet instanton correction by a redefinition of the chemical potential in the Fermi-gas system. Analytic expressions of the 3- and 4-membrane instanton corrections are also proposed.

[Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

2006-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Castro

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cleminson, F.R.

1998-01-01

Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

Career Development and Personal Functioning Differences between Work-Bound and Non-Work Bound Students

Science.gov (United States)

Creed, Peter A.; Patton, Wendy; Hood, Michelle

2010-01-01

We surveyed 506 Australian high school students on career development (exploration, planning, job-knowledge, decision-making, indecision), personal functioning (well-being, self-esteem, life satisfaction, school satisfaction) and control variables (parent education, school achievement), and tested differences among work-bound, college-bound and…

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2018-02-01

Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Limited test data: The choice between confidence limits and inverse probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nichols, P.

1975-01-01

For a unit which has been successfully designed to a high standard of reliability, any test programme of reasonable size will result in only a small number of failures. In these circumstances the failure rate estimated from the tests will depend on the statistical treatment applied. When a large number of units is to be manufactured, an unexpected high failure rate will certainly result in a large number of failures, so it is necessary to guard against optimistic unrepresentative test results by using a confidence limit approach. If only a small number of production units is involved, failures may not occur even with a higher than expected failure rate, and so one may be able to accept a method which allows for the possibility of either optimistic or pessimistic test results, and in this case an inverse probability approach, based on Bayes' theorem, might be used. The paper first draws attention to an apparently significant difference in the numerical results from the two methods, particularly for the overall probability of several units arranged in redundant logic. It then discusses a possible objection to the inverse method, followed by a demonstration that, for a large population and a very reasonable choice of prior probability, the inverse probability and confidence limit methods give the same numerical result. Finally, it is argued that a confidence limit approach is overpessimistic when a small number of production units is involved, and that both methods give the same answer for a large population. (author)

Search for weakly decaying Λn‾ and ΛΛ exotic bound states in central Pb–Pb collisions at sNN=2.76 TeV

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Adam

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We present results of a search for two hypothetical strange dibaryon states, i.e. the H-dibaryon and the possible Λn‾ bound state. The search is performed with the ALICE detector in central (0–10% Pb–Pb collisions at sNN=2.76 TeV, by invariant mass analysis in the decay modes Λn‾→d‾π+ and H-dibaryon →Λpπ−. No evidence for these bound states is observed. Upper limits are determined at 99% confidence level for a wide range of lifetimes and for the full range of branching ratios. The results are compared to thermal, coalescence and hybrid UrQMD model expectations, which describe correctly the production of other loosely bound states, like the deuteron and the hypertriton.

Lower Bound of Energy-Latency Tradeoff of Opportunistic Routing in Multihop Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gorce Jean-Marie

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Opportunistic networking aims at exploiting sporadic radio links to improve the connectivity of multihop networks and to foster data transmissions. The broadcast nature of wireless channels is an important feature that can be exploited to improve transmissions by using several potential receivers. Opportunistic relaying is thus the first brick for opportunistic networking. However, the advantage of opportunistic relaying may be degraded due to energy increase related to having multiple active receivers. This paper proposes a thorough analysis of opportunistic relaying efficiency under different realistic radio channel conditions. The study is intended to find the best tradeoff between two objectives: energy and latency minimizations, with a hard reliability constraint. We derive an optimal bound, namely, the Pareto front of the related optimization problem, which offers a good insight into the benefits of opportunistic routings compared with classical multihop routing schemes. Meanwhile, the lower bound provides a framework to optimize the parameters at the physical layer, MAC layer, and routing layer from the viewpoint of cross layer during the design or planning phase of a network.

Development of a reliable, valid measure to assess parents' and teachers' understanding of postural care for children with physical disabilities: the (UKC PostCarD) questionnaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Hotham, S; Hutton, E; Hamilton-West, K E

2015-11-01

Previous research has highlighted lack of knowledge, understanding and confidence among parents and teachers responsible for the postural care of children with physical disability. Interventions designed to improve these qualities require a reliable and validated tool to assess pre- and post-intervention levels. Currently, however, no validated measure of postural care confidence (i.e. self-efficacy) exists. Hence, the aim of this research was to develop a reliable and valid questionnaire to assess parents' and teachers' confidence, alongside knowledge and understanding of postural care - the Understanding Knowledge and Confidence in providing POSTural CARe for children with Disabilities (UKC PostCarD) questionnaire. Items were developed by a multidisciplinary team and designed to map onto the content of 'An A-to-Z of Postural Care'. Parents, teachers and therapists assessed items for face validity. Scale reliability was then assessed using Cronbach's alpha and known-group validity was assessed by comparing scores of an 'expert' group (physiotherapists and occupational therapists) with those of a 'non-expert' group (with no formal training in postural care). The total scale and all three subscales (understanding and knowledge, confidence and concerns) demonstrated adequate reliability (α > 0.83) and subscale correlations formed a logical pattern (understanding and knowledge correlated positively with confidence and negatively with concerns). Experts' (n = 111) scores were higher than non-experts' (n = 79) for the total scale and all subscales (P children with disabilities. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Inter- and intrarater reliability of two proprioception tests using clinical applicable measurement tools in subjects with and without knee osteoarthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Baert, Isabel A C; Lluch, Enrique; Struyf, Thomas; Peeters, Greta; Van Oosterwijck, Sophie; Tuynman, Joanna; Rufai, Salim; Struyf, Filip

2018-06-01

The therapeutic value of proprioceptive-based exercises in knee osteoarthritis (KOA) management warrants investigation of proprioceptive testing methods easily accessible in clinical practice. To estimate inter- and intrarater reliability of the knee joint position sense (KJPS) test and knee force sense (KFS) test in subjects with and without KOA. Cross-sectional test-retest design. Two blinded raters performed independently repeated measures of the KJPS and KFS test, using an analogue inclinometer and handheld dynamometer, respectively, in eight KOA patients (12 symptomatic knees) and 26 healthy controls (52 asymptomatic knees). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs; model 2,1), standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimal detectable change with 95% confidence bounds (MDC 95 ) were calculated. For KJPS, results showed good to excellent test-retest agreement (ICCs 0.70-0.95 in KOA patients; ICCs 0.65-0.85 in healthy controls). A 2° measurement error (SEM 1°) was reported when measuring KJPS in multiple test positions and calculating mean repositioning error. Testing KOA patients pre and post therapy a repositioning error larger than 4° (MDC 95 ) is needed to consider true change. Measuring KFS using handheld dynamometry showed poor to fair interrater and poor to excellent intrarater reliability in subjects with and without KOA. Measuring KJPS in multiple test positions using an analogue inclinometer and calculating mean repositioning error is reliable and can be used in clinical practice. We do not recommend the use of the KFS test to clinicians. Further research is required to establish diagnostic accuracy and validity of our KJPS test in larger knee pain populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of 4-meter and 10-meter walk tests after lower extremity surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Unver, Bayram; Baris, Refik Hilmi; Yuksel, Ertugrul; Cekmece, Senol; Kalkan, Serpil; Karatosun, Vasfi

2017-12-01

To investigate the test-retest reliability of the 4-meter walk test (4 MWT) and 10-meter walk test (10 MWT) in patients undergoing lower extremity surgery during inpatient rehabilitation. In all, 102 patients with total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), lower extremity fracture (LEF) and soft tissue operation were recruited. Patients performed two 4 MWT and two 10 MWT trials on the same day. The same researcher performed all the measurements to avoid inter-rater variability. The 4 MWT and 10 MWT were shown to have excellent test-retest reliability. The ICCs for the 4 MWT and 10 MWT were found as 0.94 and 0.95, respectively. The SEMs for the 4 MWT and 10 MWT were 2.0 and 5.5 seconds, respectively. The smallest real difference at the 95% confidence level (SRD95) was 5.5 seconds for the 4 MWT and 12.2 seconds for 10 MWT and SRD95 percentage was 31.2 for the 4 MWT and 28.5 for the 10 MWT. Both the 4 MWT and the 10 MWT have excellent reliability in patients undergoing lower extremity surgery such as TKA, THA, LEF and soft tissue operation during inpatient rehabilitation. Clinicians and researchers can be confident that changes above the SRD95s for the different patient groups, for both sexes and with regard to weight-bearing status, represent a real clinical change in rehabilitation process. Implications for Rehabilitation The 4 MWT and the 10 MWT are simple methods and were also shown to be reliable measurement methods in many patient groups. This study illustrates that the test-retest reliability of the 4 MWT and 10 MWT are excellent in patients undergoing lower extremity surgery during inpatient rehabilitation (ICC: 0.94 for 4 MWT, ICC: 0.95 for 10 MWT). Clinicians and researchers can be confident that changes above the SRD95s for the different patient groups, for both sexes and with regard to weight-bearing status represent a real clinical change in rehabilitation process.

How do regulators measure public confidence?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.

2006-01-01

The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)

Binding energies of two deltas bound states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Hiroshi; Saito, Koichi.

1982-06-01

Bound states of the two-deltas system are investigated by employing the realistic one boson exchange potential. It is found that there exist many bound states in each isospin channel and also found that the tensor interaction plays important role in producing these bound states. Relationship between these bound states and dibaryon resonances is discussed. (J.P.N.)

Scheduling for energy and reliability management on multiprocessor real-time systems

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Xuan

Scheduling algorithms for multiprocessor real-time systems have been studied for years with many well-recognized algorithms proposed. However, it is still an evolving research area and many problems remain open due to their intrinsic complexities. With the emergence of multicore processors, it is necessary to re-investigate the scheduling problems and design/develop efficient algorithms for better system utilization, low scheduling overhead, high energy efficiency, and better system reliability. Focusing cluster schedulings with optimal global schedulers, we study the utilization bound and scheduling overhead for a class of cluster-optimal schedulers. Then, taking energy/power consumption into consideration, we developed energy-efficient scheduling algorithms for real-time systems, especially for the proliferating embedded systems with limited energy budget. As the commonly deployed energy-saving technique (e.g. dynamic voltage frequency scaling (DVFS)) will significantly affect system reliability, we study schedulers that have intelligent mechanisms to recuperate system reliability to satisfy the quality assurance requirements. Extensive simulation is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms on reduction of scheduling overhead, energy saving, and reliability improvement. The simulation results show that the proposed reliability-aware power management schemes could preserve the system reliability while still achieving substantial energy saving.

The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

OpenAIRE

Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

2013-01-01

Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

Variational lower bound on the scattering length

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenberg, L.; Spruch, L.

1975-01-01

The scattering length A characterizes the zero-energy scattering of one system by another. It was shown some time ago that a variational upper bound on A could be obtained using methods, of the Rayleigh-Ritz type, which are commonly employed to obtain upper bounds on energy eigenvalues. Here we formulate a method for obtaining a variational lower bound on A. Once again the essential idea is to express the scattering length as a variational estimate plus an error term and then to reduce the problem of bounding the error term to one involving bounds on energy eigenvalues. In particular, the variational lower bound on A is rigorously established provided a certin modified Hamiltonian can be shown to have no discrete states lying below the level of the continuum threshold. It is unfortunately true that necessary conditions for the existence of bound states are not available for multiparticle systems in general. However, in the case of positron-atom scattering the adiabatic approximation can be introduced as an (essentially) solvable comparison problem to rigorously establish the nonexistence of bound states of the modified Hamiltonian. It has recently been shown how the validity of the variational upper bound on A can be maintained when the target ground-state wave function is imprecisely known. Similar methods can be used to maintain the variational lower bound on A. Since the bound is variational, the error in the calculated scattering length will be of second order in the error in the wave function. The use of the adiabatic approximation in the present context places no limitation in principle on the accuracy achievable

Some approaches to system reliability improvement in engineering design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Kecheng.

1990-01-01

In this thesis some approaches to system reliability improvement in engineering design are studied. In particular, the thesis aims at developing alternative methodologies for ranking of component importance which are more related to the design practice and which are more useful in system synthesis than the existing ones. It also aims at developing component reliability models by means of stress-strength interference which will enable both component reliability prediction and design for reliability. A new methodology for ranking of component importance is first developed based on the notion of the increase of the expected system yield. This methodology allows for incorporation of different improvement actions at the component level such as parallel redundancy, standby redundancy, burn-in, minimal repair and perfect replacement. For each of these improvement actions, the increase of system reliability is studied and used as the component importance measure. A possible connection between the commonly known models of component lifetimes and the stress-strength interference models is suggested. Under some general conditions the relationship between component failure rate and the stress and strength distribution characteristics is studied. A heuristic approach for obtaining bounds on failure probability through stress-strength interference is also presented. A case study and a worked example are presented, which illustrate and verify the developed importance measures and their applications in the analytical as well as synthetical work of engineering design. (author)

Reliability of the Emergency Severity Index: Meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Mirhaghi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Although triage systems based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI have many advantages in terms of simplicity and clarity, previous research has questioned their reliability in practice. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the reliability of ESI triage scales. Methods: This metaanalysis was performed in March 2014. Electronic research databases were searched and articles conforming to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies were selected. Two researchers independently examined selected abstracts. Data were extracted in the following categories: version of scale (latest/older, participants (adult/paediatric, raters (nurse, physician or expert, method of reliability (intra/inter-rater, reliability statistics (weighted/unweighted kappa and the origin and publication year of the study. The effect size was obtained by the Z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models and a meta-regression was performed based on the method of moments estimator. Results: A total of 19 studies from six countries were included in the analysis. The pooled coefficient for the ESI triage scales was substantial at 0.791 (95% confidence interval: 0.787‒0.795. Agreement was higher with the latest and adult versions of the scale and among expert raters, compared to agreement with older and paediatric versions of the scales and with other groups of raters, respectively. Conclusion: ESI triage scales showed an acceptable level of overall reliability. However, ESI scales require more development in order to see full agreement from all rater groups. Further studies concentrating on other aspects of reliability assessment are needed.

Aluminum stimulates uptake of non-transferrin bound iron and transferrin bound iron in human glial cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yongbae; Olivi, Luisa; Cheong, Jae Hoon; Maertens, Alex; Bressler, Joseph P.

2007-01-01

Aluminum and other trivalent metals were shown to stimulate uptake of transferrin bound iron and nontransferrin bound iron in erytholeukemia and hepatoma cells. Because of the association between aluminum and Alzheimer's Disease, and findings of higher levels of iron in Alzheimer's disease brains, the effects of aluminum on iron homeostasis were examined in a human glial cell line. Aluminum stimulated dose- and time-dependent uptake of nontransferrin bound iron and iron bound to transferrin. A transporter was likely involved in the uptake of nontransferrin iron because uptake reached saturation, was temperature-dependent, and attenuated by inhibitors of protein synthesis. Interestingly, the effects of aluminum were not blocked by inhibitors of RNA synthesis. Aluminum also decreased the amount of iron bound to ferritin though it did not affect levels of divalent metal transporter 1. These results suggest that aluminum disrupts iron homeostasis in Brain by several mechanisms including the transferrin receptor, a nontransferrin iron transporter, and ferritin

Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

1998-07-01

Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

Optimal number of tests to achieve and validate product reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, Hussam; Chateauneuf, Alaa

2014-01-01

The reliability validation of engineering products and systems is mandatory for choosing the best cost-effective design among a series of alternatives. Decisions at early design stages have a large effect on the overall life cycle performance and cost of products. In this paper, an optimization-based formulation is proposed by coupling the costs of product design and validation testing, in order to ensure the product reliability with the minimum number of tests. This formulation addresses the question about the number of tests to be specified through reliability demonstration necessary to validate the product under appropriate confidence level. The proposed formulation takes into account the product cost, the failure cost and the testing cost. The optimization problem can be considered as a decision making system according to the hierarchy of structural reliability measures. The numerical examples show the interest of coupling design and testing parameters. - Highlights: • Coupled formulation for design and testing costs, with lifetime degradation. • Cost-effective testing optimization to achieve reliability target. • Solution procedure for nested aleatoric and epistemic variable spaces

Capacity Bounds for Parallel Optical Wireless Channels

KAUST Repository

Chaaban, Anas; Rezki, Zouheir; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2016-01-01

A system consisting of parallel optical wireless channels with a total average intensity constraint is studied. Capacity upper and lower bounds for this system are derived. Under perfect channel-state information at the transmitter (CSIT), the bounds have to be optimized with respect to the power allocation over the parallel channels. The optimization of the lower bound is non-convex, however, the KKT conditions can be used to find a list of possible solutions one of which is optimal. The optimal solution can then be found by an exhaustive search algorithm, which is computationally expensive. To overcome this, we propose low-complexity power allocation algorithms which are nearly optimal. The optimized capacity lower bound nearly coincides with the capacity at high SNR. Without CSIT, our capacity bounds lead to upper and lower bounds on the outage probability. The outage probability bounds meet at high SNR. The system with average and peak intensity constraints is also discussed.

Product differentiation under bounded rationality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vermeulen, B.; Poutré, La J.A.; Kok, de A.G.; Pyka, A.; Handa, H.; Ishibuchi, H.; Ong, Y.-S.; Tan, K.-C.

2015-01-01

We study product differentiation equilibria and dynamics on the Salop circle under bounded rationality. Due to bounded rationality, firms tend to agglomerate in pairs. Upon adding a second tier of component suppliers, downstream assemblers may escape pairwise horizontal agglomeration. Moreover, we

The reliability of a segmentation methodology for assessing intramuscular adipose tissue and other soft-tissue compartments of lower leg MRI images.

Science.gov (United States)

Karampatos, Sarah; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Beattie, Karen A; Maly, Monica R; Chan, Adrian; Adachi, Jonathan D; Pritchard, Janet M

2016-04-01

Determine the reliability of a magnetic resonance (MR) image segmentation protocol for quantifying intramuscular adipose tissue (IntraMAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue, total muscle and intermuscular adipose tissue (InterMAT) of the lower leg. Ten axial lower leg MRI slices were obtained from 21 postmenopausal women using a 1 Tesla peripheral MRI system. Images were analyzed using sliceOmatic™ software. The average cross-sectional areas of the tissues were computed for the ten slices. Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability were determined and expressed as the standard error of measurement (SEM) (absolute reliability) and intraclass coefficient (ICC) (relative reliability). Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability for IntraMAT were 0.991 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.978-0.996, p soft tissue compartments, the ICCs were all >0.90 (p soft-tissue compartments of the lower leg. A standard operating procedure manual is provided to assist users, and SEM values can be used to estimate sample size and determine confidence in repeated measurements in future research.

Measurement of organically bound tritium in urine and feces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trivedi, A.; Duong, T.; Leon, J.W.; Linauskas, S.H.

1993-11-01

A bioassay method was developed for directly measuring organically bound tritium (OBT) in urine and feces. Samples first undergo low-temperature distillation and vacuum separation to isolate tritiated water (HTO) and exchangeable tritium. This is followed by converting the non-exchangeable tritium (i.e., OBT) into HTO through oxygen combustion. The method was investigated to: optimise the sample preparation procedures; establish OBT recovery (64% ± 7% for urine and 71% ± 8% for feces); and, determine the detection limit for OBT in urine (0.3 Bq · g -1 ) and feces (5 Bq · g -1 ). The method was evaluated for error sources that are associated with the exchange between HTO and OBT. It is concluded that this bioassay method can reliably measure OBT in urine and feces within the range of ± 10%

Reliability of the "Ten Test" for assessment of discriminative sensation in hand trauma.

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, Michael J; Regan, William R; Seal, Alex; Bristol, Sean G

2016-10-01

"Ten Test" (TT) is a bedside measure of discriminative sensation, whereby the magnitude of abnormal sensation to moving light touch is normalized to an area of normal sensation on an 11-point Likert scale (0-10). The purposes of this study were to determine reliability parameters of the TT in a cohort of patients presenting to a hand trauma clinic with subjectively altered sensation post-injury and to compare the reliability of TT to that of the Weinstein Enhanced Sensory Test (WEST). Study participants (n = 29, mean age = 37 ± 12) comprised patients presenting to an outpatient hand trauma clinic with recent hand trauma and self reported abnormal sensation. Participants underwent TT and WEST by two separate raters on the same day. Interrater reliability, response stability and responsiveness of each test were determined by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC: 2, 1), standard error of measurement (SEM) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and minimal detectable difference score, with 95% CI (MDD95), respectively. The TT displayed excellent interrater reliability (ICC = 0.95, 95% CI 0.89-0.97) compared to good reliability for WEST (ICC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.58-0.89). The range of true scores expected with 95% confidence based on the SEM (i.e. response stability), was ±1.1 for TT and ±1.1 for WEST. MDD95 scores reflecting test responsiveness were 1.5 and 1.6 for TT and WEST, respectively. The TT displayed excellent reliability parameters in this patient population. Reliability parameters were stronger for TT compared to WEST. These results provide support for the use of TT as a component of the sensory exam in hand trauma. Copyright © 2016 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Massive Galileon positivity bounds

Science.gov (United States)

de Rham, Claudia; Melville, Scott; Tolley, Andrew J.; Zhou, Shuang-Yong

2017-09-01

The EFT coefficients in any gapped, scalar, Lorentz invariant field theory must satisfy positivity requirements if there is to exist a local, analytic Wilsonian UV completion. We apply these bounds to the tree level scattering amplitudes for a massive Galileon. The addition of a mass term, which does not spoil the non-renormalization theorem of the Galileon and preserves the Galileon symmetry at loop level, is necessary to satisfy the lowest order positivity bound. We further show that a careful choice of successively higher derivative corrections are necessary to satisfy the higher order positivity bounds. There is then no obstruction to a local UV completion from considerations of tree level 2-to-2 scattering alone. To demonstrate this we give an explicit example of such a UV completion.

Connections between the Sznajd model with general confidence rules and graph theory

Science.gov (United States)

Timpanaro, André M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.

2012-10-01

The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is used to model opinion propagation and consensus formation in societies. Its main feature is that its rules favor bigger groups of agreeing people. In a previous work, we generalized the bounded confidence rule in order to model biases and prejudices in discrete opinion models. In that work, we applied this modification to the Sznajd model and presented some preliminary results. The present work extends what we did in that paper. We present results linking many of the properties of the mean-field fixed points, with only a few qualitative aspects of the confidence rule (the biases and prejudices modeled), finding an interesting connection with graph theory problems. More precisely, we link the existence of fixed points with the notion of strongly connected graphs and the stability of fixed points with the problem of finding the maximal independent sets of a graph. We state these results and present comparisons between the mean field and simulations in Barabási-Albert networks, followed by the main mathematical ideas and appendices with the rigorous proofs of our claims and some graph theory concepts, together with examples. We also show that there is no qualitative difference in the mean-field results if we require that a group of size q>2, instead of a pair, of agreeing agents be formed before they attempt to convince other sites (for the mean field, this would coincide with the q-voter model).

New bounds on isotropic Lorentz violation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carone, Christopher D.; Sher, Marc; Vanderhaeghen, Marc

2006-01-01

Violations of Lorentz invariance that appear via operators of dimension four or less are completely parametrized in the Standard Model Extension (SME). In the pure photonic sector of the SME, there are 19 dimensionless, Lorentz-violating parameters. Eighteen of these have experimental upper bounds ranging between 10 -11 and 10 -32 ; the remaining parameter, k-tilde tr , is isotropic and has a much weaker bound of order 10 -4 . In this Brief Report, we point out that k-tilde tr gives a significant contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the electron and find a new upper bound of order 10 -8 . With reasonable assumptions, we further show that this bound may be improved to 10 -14 by considering the renormalization of other Lorentz-violating parameters that are more tightly constrained. Using similar renormalization arguments, we also estimate bounds on Lorentz-violating parameters in the pure gluonic sector of QCD

Tight Bounds for Distributed Functional Monitoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Woodruff, David P.; Zhang, Qin

2011-01-01

$, our bound resolves their main open question. Our lower bounds are based on new direct sum theorems for approximate majority, and yield significant improvements to problems in the data stream model, improving the bound for estimating $F_p, p > 2,$ in $t$ passes from $\\tilde{\\Omega}(n^{1-2/p}/(\\eps^{2/p......} t))$ to $\\tilde{\\Omega}(n^{1-2/p}/(\\eps^{4/p} t))$, giving the first bound for estimating $F_0$ in $t$ passes of $\\Omega(1/(\\eps^2 t))$ bits of space that does not use the gap-hamming problem, and showing a distribution for the gap-hamming problem with high external information cost or super...

Combining Alphas via Bounded Regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zura Kakushadze

2015-11-01

Full Text Available We give an explicit algorithm and source code for combining alpha streams via bounded regression. In practical applications, typically, there is insufficient history to compute a sample covariance matrix (SCM for a large number of alphas. To compute alpha allocation weights, one then resorts to (weighted regression over SCM principal components. Regression often produces alpha weights with insufficient diversification and/or skewed distribution against, e.g., turnover. This can be rectified by imposing bounds on alpha weights within the regression procedure. Bounded regression can also be applied to stock and other asset portfolio construction. We discuss illustrative examples.

Quasi-bound states in continuum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Hiroaki; Hatano, Naomichi; Garmon, Sterling; Petrosky, Tomio

2007-08-01

We report the prediction of quasi-bound states (resonant states with very long lifetimes) that occur in the eigenvalue continuum of propagating states for a wide region of parameter space. These quasi-bound states are generated in a quantum wire with two channels and an adatom, when the energy bands of the two channels overlap. A would-be bound state that lays just below the upper energy band is slightly destabilized by the lower energy band and thereby becomes a resonant state with a very long lifetime (a second QBIC lays above the lower energy band). (author)

Application of the dynamic bounds method in the safety assessment of flood defences, a case study: 17th Street flood wall, New Orleans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Demirbilek, Zeki; Mahdi, Tew-Fik; Vrijling, J.K.

2010-01-01

In this paper we provide a computational framework for evaluation of reliability and safety assessment of infrastructures. It is based on the combined application of the dynamic bounds (DB) method and a probabilistic finite element model (FEM). The DB improves the computational efficiency of the FEM

Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

2015-11-01

People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

High reliability flow system - an assessment of pump reliability and optimisation of the number of pumps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Butterfield, J.M.

1981-01-01

A system is considered where a number of pumps operate in parallel. Normally, all pumps operate, driven by main motors fed from the grid. Each pump has a pony motor fed from an individual battery supply. Each pony motor is normally running, but not engaged to the pump shaft. On demand, e.g. failure of grid supplies, each pony motor is designed to clutch-in automatically when the pump speed falls to a specified value. The probability of all the pony motors failing to clutch-in on demand must be demonstrated with 95% confidence to be less than 10 -8 per demand. This assessment considers how the required reliability of pony motor drives might be demonstrated in practice and the implications on choice of the number of pumps at the design stage. The assessment recognises that not only must the system prove to be extremely reliable, but that demonstration that reliability is adequate must be done during plant commissioning, with practical limits on the amount of testing performed. It is concluded that a minimum of eight pony motors should be provided, eight pumps each with one pony motor (preferred) or five pumps each with two independent pony motors. A minimum of two diverse pony motor systems should be provided. (author)

Bounded Rationality and Budgeting

OpenAIRE

Ibrahim, Mukdad

2016-01-01

This article discusses the theory of bounded rationality which had been introduced by Herbert Simon in the 1950s. Simon introduced the notion of bounded rationality stating that while decision-makers strive for rationality, they are limited by the effect of the environment, their information process capacity and by the constraints on their information storage and retrieval capabilities. Moreover, this article tries to specifically blend this notion into budgeting, using the foundations of inc...

Fuzzy upper bounds and their applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soleimani-damaneh, M. [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematical Science and Computer Engineering, Teacher Training University, 599 Taleghani Avenue, Tehran 15618 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: soleimani_d@yahoo.com

2008-04-15

This paper considers the concept of fuzzy upper bounds and provides some relevant applications. Considering a fuzzy DEA model, the existence of a fuzzy upper bound for the objective function of the model is shown and an effective approach to solve that model is introduced. Some dual interpretations are provided, which are useful for practical purposes. Applications of the concept of fuzzy upper bounds in two physical problems are pointed out.

Assessing Confidence in Performance Assessments Using an Evidence Support Logic Methodology: An Application of Tesla

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egan, M.; Paulley, A.; Lehman, L.; Lowe, J.; Rochette, E.; Baker, St.

2009-01-01

The assessment of uncertainties and their implications is a key requirement when undertaking performance assessment (PA) of radioactive waste facilities. Decisions based on the outcome of such assessments become translated into judgments about confidence in the information they provide. This confidence, in turn, depends on uncertainties in the underlying evidence. Even if there is a large amount of information supporting an assessment, it may be only partially relevant, incomplete or less than completely reliable. In order to develop a measure of confidence in the outcome, sources of uncertainty need to be identified and adequately addressed in the development of the PA, or in any overarching strategic decision-making processes. This paper describes a trial application of the technique of Evidence Support Logic (ESL), which has been designed for application in support of 'high stakes' decisions, where important aspects of system performance are subject to uncertainty. The aims of ESL are to identify the amount of uncertainty or conflict associated with evidence relating to a particular decision, and to guide understanding of how evidence combines to support confidence in judgments. Elicitation techniques are used to enable participants in the process to develop a logical hypothesis model that best represents the relationships between different sources of evidence to the proposition under examination. The aim is to identify key areas of subjectivity and other sources of potential bias in the use of evidence (whether for or against the proposition) to support judgments of confidence. Propagation algorithms are used to investigate the overall implications of the logic according to the strength of the underlying evidence and associated uncertainties. (authors)

A Lagrangian lower bound for the container transshipment problem at a railway hub for a fast branch-and-bound algorithm

OpenAIRE

M Barketau; H Kopfer; E Pesch

2013-01-01

In this paper, we consider the container transshipment problem at a railway hub. A simple lower bound known for this problem will be improved by a new Lagrangian relaxation lower bound. Computational tests show that this lower bound outperforms the simple one and decreases substantially the run time of the branch-and-bound algorithm.

NEW NEUTRINO MASS BOUNDS FROM SDSS-III DATA RELEASE 8 PHOTOMETRIC LUMINOUS GALAXIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Putter, Roland [ICC, University of Barcelona (IEEC-UB), Marti i Franques 1, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain); Mena, Olga; Giusarma, Elena [Instituto de Fisica Corpuscular, University of Valencia-CSIC (Spain); Ho, Shirley; Seo, Hee-Jong; White, Martin; Ross, Nicholas P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Cuesta, Antonio [Yale University, New Haven, CT (United States); Ross, Ashley J.; Percival, Will J. [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, Dennis Sciama Building, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Bizyaev, Dmitry; Brewington, Howard; Malanushenko, Elena; Malanushenko, Viktor; Oravetz, Daniel; Pan, Kaike; Shelden, Alaina; Simmons, Audrey [Apache Point Observatory, P.O. Box 59, Sunspot, NM 88349-0059 (United States); Kirkby, David [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697 (United States); Schneider, Donald P. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); and others

2012-12-10

We present neutrino mass bounds using 900,000 luminous galaxies with photometric redshifts measured from Sloan Digital Sky Survey III Data Release 8. The galaxies have photometric redshifts between z = 0.45 and z = 0.65 and cover 10,000 deg{sup 2}, thus probing a volume of 3 h {sup -3} Gpc{sup 3} and enabling tight constraints to be derived on the amount of dark matter in the form of massive neutrinos. A new bound on the sum of neutrino masses {Sigma}m{sub {nu}} < 0.27 eV, at the 95% confidence level (CL), is obtained after combining our sample of galaxies, which we call ''CMASS'', with Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) seven-year cosmic microwave background data and the most recent measurement of the Hubble parameter from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This constraint is obtained with a conservative multipole range of 30 < l < 200 in order to minimize nonlinearities, and a free bias parameter in each of the four redshift bins. We study the impact of assuming this linear galaxy bias model using mock catalogs and find that this model causes a small ({approx}1{sigma}-1.5{sigma}) bias in {Omega}{sub DM} h {sup 2}. For this reason, we also quote neutrino bounds based on a conservative galaxy bias model containing additional, shot-noise-like free parameters. In this conservative case, the bounds are significantly weakened, e.g., {Sigma}m{sub {nu}} < 0.38 eV (95% CL) for WMAP+HST+CMASS (l{sub max} = 200). We also study the dependence of the neutrino bound on the multipole range (l{sub max} = 150 versus l{sub max} = 200) and on which combination of data sets is included as a prior. The addition of supernova and/or baryon acoustic oscillation data does not significantly improve the neutrino mass bound once the HST prior is included. A companion paper describes the construction of the angular power spectra in detail and derives constraints on a general cosmological model, including the dark energy equation of state w and the spatial

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Science.gov (United States)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Thesken, John C.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie

2007-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Hybrid Structural Reliability Analysis under Multisource Uncertainties Based on Universal Grey Numbers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xingfa Yang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Nondeterministic parameters of certain distribution are employed to model structural uncertainties, which are usually assumed as stochastic factors. However, model parameters may not be precisely represented due to some factors in engineering practices, such as lack of sufficient data, data with fuzziness, and unknown-but-bounded conditions. To this end, interval and fuzzy parameters are implemented and an efficient approach to structural reliability analysis with random-interval-fuzzy hybrid parameters is proposed in this study. Fuzzy parameters are first converted to equivalent random ones based on the equal entropy principle. 3σ criterion is then employed to transform the equivalent random and the original random parameters to interval variables. In doing this, the hybrid reliability problem is transformed into the one only with interval variables, in other words, nonprobabilistic reliability analysis problem. Nevertheless, the problem of interval extension existed in interval arithmetic, especially for the nonlinear systems. Therefore, universal grey mathematics, which can tackle the issue of interval extension, is employed to solve the nonprobabilistic reliability analysis problem. The results show that the proposed method can obtain more conservative results of the hybrid structural reliability.

Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

Science.gov (United States)

McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

2006-01-01

The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

Improved Range Searching Lower Bounds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kasper Green; Nguyen, Huy L.

2012-01-01

by constructing a hard input set and query set, and then invoking Chazelle and Rosenberg's [CGTA'96] general theorem on the complexity of navigation in the pointer machine. For the group model, we show that input sets and query sets that are hard for range reporting in the pointer machine (i.e. by Chazelle...... and Rosenberg's theorem), are also hard for dynamic range searching in the group model. This theorem allows us to reuse decades of research on range reporting lower bounds to immediately obtain a range of new group model lower bounds. Amongst others, this includes an improved lower bound for the fundamental...

Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Achilles, C. M.; And Others

1985-01-01

Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

2011-01-01

of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

Two-phonon bound states in imperfect crystals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behera, S.N.; Samsur, Sk.

1980-01-01

The question of the occurrence of two-phonon bound states in imperfect crystals is investigated. It is shown that the anharmonicity mediated two-phonon bound state which is present in perfect crystals gets modified due to the presence of impurities. Moreover, the possibility of the occurrence of a purely impurity mediated two-phonon bound state is demonstrated. The bound state frequencies are calculated using the simple Einstein oscillator model for the host phonons. The two-phonon density of states for the imperfect crystal thus obtained has peaks at the combination and difference frequencies of two host phonons besides the peaks at the bound state frequencies. For a perfect crystal the theory predicts a single peak at the two-phonon bound state frequency in conformity with experimental observations and other theoretical calculations. Experimental data on the two-phonon infrared absorption and Raman scattering from mixed crystals of Gasub(1-c)Alsub(c)P and Gesub(1-c)Sisub(c) are analysed to provide evidence in support of impurity-mediated two-phonon bound states. The relevance of the zero frequency (difference spectrum) peak to the central peak, observed in structural phase transitions, is conjectured. (author)

On semidefinite programming bounds for graph bandwidth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Klerk, E.; Nagy, M.; Sotirov, R.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we propose two new lower bounds on graph bandwidth and cyclic bandwidth based on semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations of the quadratic assignment problem. We compare the new bounds with two other SDP bounds reported in [A. Blum, G. Konjevod, R. Ravi, and S. Vempala,

Reliability of the AMA Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Forst, Linda; Friedman, Lee; Chukwu, Abraham

2010-12-01

AMA's Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment is used to rate loss of function and determine compensation and ability to work after injury or illness; however, there are few studies that evaluate reliability or construct validity. To evaluate the reliability of the fifth and sixth editions for back injury; to determine best methods for further study. Intra-class correlation coefficients within and between raters were relatively high. There was wider variability for individual cases. Impairment ratings were lower and correlated less well for the sixth edition, though confidence intervals overlapped. The sixth edition may not be an improvement over the fifth. A research agenda should include investigations of reliability and construct validity for different body sites and organ systems along the entire rating scale and among different categories of raters.

Photoaffinity labeling of [3H]flunitrazepam- and [3H]Ro15-4513-bound pellets in rat cerebral cortex and cerebellum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiu, T.H.; Yu, Onnfoh; Rosenberg, H.C.

1989-01-01

Irreversible incorporation of [ 3 H]flunitrazepam and [ 3 H]Ro15-4513 into GABA/benzodiazepine receptor subunits was studied by UV/irradiation using ligand-bound membrane pellets from rat cerebral cortical and cerebellar synaptic membranes. Specific incorporation for [ 3 H]flunitrazepam was greater in the pellet than in the suspension. The incorporation was identical for [ 3 H]Ro15-4513 in both pellet and suspension. With the ligand-bound pellets, 50% of the available binding sites were photolabeled by both ligands in cortex and cerebellum. SDS polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and fluorography of [ 3 H]flunitrazepam photo-labeled receptor revealed the same number of major sites in both brain regions. In contrast, [ 3 H]Ro15-4513 appears to label fewer sites in cortex and cerebellum. Photoaffinity labeling with [ 3 H]flunitrazepam in ligand-bound membrane pellet provides a more selective and reliable method for studying the subunit structure of GABA/benzodiazepine receptor complex

Reliability demonstration test planning using bayesian analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandran, Senthil Kumar; Arul, John A.

2003-01-01

In Nuclear Power Plants, the reliability of all the safety systems is very critical from the safety viewpoint and it is very essential that the required reliability requirements be met while satisfying the design constraints. From practical experience, it is found that the reliability of complex systems such as Safety Rod Drive Mechanism is of the order of 10 -4 with an uncertainty factor of 10. To demonstrate the reliability of such systems is prohibitive in terms of cost and time as the number of tests needed is very large. The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian reliability demonstrating testing procedure for exponentially distributed failure times with gamma prior distribution on the failure rate which can be easily and effectively used to demonstrate component/subsystem/system reliability conformance to stated requirements. The important questions addressed in this paper are: With zero failures, how long one should perform the tests and how many components are required to conclude with a given degree of confidence, that the component under test, meets the reliability requirement. The procedure is explained with an example. This procedure can also be extended to demonstrate with more number of failures. The approach presented is applicable for deriving test plans for demonstrating component failure rates of nuclear power plants, as the failure data for similar components are becoming available in existing plants elsewhere. The advantages of this procedure are the criterion upon which the procedure is based is simple and pertinent, the fitting of the prior distribution is an integral part of the procedure and is based on the use of information regarding two percentiles of this distribution and finally, the procedure is straightforward and easy to apply in practice. (author)

Time-dependent Reliability of Dynamic Systems using Subset Simulation with Splitting over a Series of Correlated Time Intervals

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-01

cost due to potential warranty costs, repairs and loss of market share. Reliability is the probability that the system will perform its intended...MCMC and splitting sampling schemes. Our proposed SS/ STP method is presented in Section 4, including accuracy bounds and computational effort

Bounded elements in Locally C*-algebras

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Harti, Rachid

2001-09-01

In order to get more useful information about Locally C*-algebras, we introduce in this paper the notion of bounded elements. First, we study the connection between bounded elements and spectrally bounded elements. Some structural results of Locally C*-algebras are established in Theorems 1 , 2 and 3. As an immediate consequence of Theorem 3, we give a characterization of the connected component of the identity in the group of unitary elements for a Locally C*-algebra. (author)

Covariant entropy bound and loop quantum cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ashtekar, Abhay; Wilson-Ewing, Edward

2008-01-01

We examine Bousso's covariant entropy bound conjecture in the context of radiation filled, spatially flat, Friedmann-Robertson-Walker models. The bound is violated near the big bang. However, the hope has been that quantum gravity effects would intervene and protect it. Loop quantum cosmology provides a near ideal setting for investigating this issue. For, on the one hand, quantum geometry effects resolve the singularity and, on the other hand, the wave function is sharply peaked at a quantum corrected but smooth geometry, which can supply the structure needed to test the bound. We find that the bound is respected. We suggest that the bound need not be an essential ingredient for a quantum gravity theory but may emerge from it under suitable circumstances.

Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

2017-09-01

This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

Machine learning classification with confidence: application of transductive conformal predictors to MRI-based diagnostic and prognostic markers in depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Nouretdinov, Ilia; Costafreda, Sergi G; Gammerman, Alexander; Chervonenkis, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir; Vapnik, Vladimir; Fu, Cynthia H Y

2011-05-15

There is rapidly accumulating evidence that the application of machine learning classification to neuroimaging measurements may be valuable for the development of diagnostic and prognostic prediction tools in psychiatry. However, current methods do not produce a measure of the reliability of the predictions. Knowing the risk of the error associated with a given prediction is essential for the development of neuroimaging-based clinical tools. We propose a general probabilistic classification method to produce measures of confidence for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We describe the application of transductive conformal predictor (TCP) to MRI images. TCP generates the most likely prediction and a valid measure of confidence, as well as the set of all possible predictions for a given confidence level. We present the theoretical motivation for TCP, and we have applied TCP to structural and functional MRI data in patients and healthy controls to investigate diagnostic and prognostic prediction in depression. We verify that TCP predictions are as accurate as those obtained with more standard machine learning methods, such as support vector machine, while providing the additional benefit of a valid measure of confidence for each prediction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of uncertainty bounds for individual particle image velocimetry measurements from cross-correlation peak ratio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charonko, John J; Vlachos, Pavlos P

2013-01-01

Numerous studies have established firmly that particle image velocimetry (PIV) is a robust method for non-invasive, quantitative measurements of fluid velocity, and that when carefully conducted, typical measurements can accurately detect displacements in digital images with a resolution well below a single pixel (in some cases well below a hundredth of a pixel). However, to date, these estimates have only been able to provide guidance on the expected error for an average measurement under specific image quality and flow conditions. This paper demonstrates a new method for estimating the uncertainty bounds to within a given confidence interval for a specific, individual measurement. Here, cross-correlation peak ratio, the ratio of primary to secondary peak height, is shown to correlate strongly with the range of observed error values for a given measurement, regardless of flow condition or image quality. This relationship is significantly stronger for phase-only generalized cross-correlation PIV processing, while the standard correlation approach showed weaker performance. Using an analytical model of the relationship derived from synthetic data sets, the uncertainty bounds at a 95% confidence interval are then computed for several artificial and experimental flow fields, and the resulting errors are shown to match closely to the predicted uncertainties. While this method stops short of being able to predict the true error for a given measurement, knowledge of the uncertainty level for a PIV experiment should provide great benefits when applying the results of PIV analysis to engineering design studies and computational fluid dynamics validation efforts. Moreover, this approach is exceptionally simple to implement and requires negligible additional computational cost. (paper)

Goal orientation as a motivation model and self-confidence among tennis players of different levels of success

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Lepir Duško

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of this research was to determine differences between the successful and less successful tennis players regarding their goal orientation and self-confidence, as well as to examine the correlation between these two psychological constructs. Active male tennis players (N=40, ranked on the senior list of the Tennis Federation of Austria, age 18 to 26, filled in the TEOSQ-D1 questionnaire (Würth, Alfermann and Saborowski, 1999, and CSI questionnaire (Vealey, 1986, just before the national senior championship of Austria. After categorising a 'successful tennis player' as one ranked in top 100 (N=20, and a 'less successful' one as ranked outside top 100 (N=20, analyses of their differences concerning goal orientation and self-confidence were conducted by means of the T-test, but no statistically significant differences were found for any scale. Pearson's coefficient for the entire sample showed that task orientation correlate significantly with the sport confidence trait (r= 0,451; Sig.= 0,05, and to a certain extent with sport-confidence as a state (r= 0,387; Sig.= 0,092, but that correlation is not statistically significant at the level Sig.< 0,05. For the result/ego scale orientation, there were no significant correlations with sporting-confidence. Guidelines for future research are based on the development of a more adequate system for evaluation of success in sport, and also on increasing of sample size. This could be very helpful for making more reliable conclusions about the influence of goal orientation preference on sport-confidence and sport success, which could justify the utilization of this psychological construct for practical purposes.

TEST-RETEST RELIABILITY OF THE CLOSED KINETIC CHAIN UPPER EXTREMITY STABILITY TEST (CKCUEST) IN ADOLESCENTS: RELIABILITY OF CKCUEST IN ADOLESCENTS.

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira, Valéria M A; Pitangui, Ana C R; Nascimento, Vinícius Y S; da Silva, Hítalo A; Dos Passos, Muana H P; de Araújo, Rodrigo C

2017-02-01

The Closed Kinetic Chain Upper Extremity Stability Test (CKCUEST) has been proposed as an option to assess upper limb function and stability; however, there are few studies that support the use of this test in adolescents. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the intersession reliability and agreement of three CKCUEST scores in adolescents and establish clinimetric values for this test. Test-retest reliability. Twenty-five healthy adolescents of both sexes were evaluated. The subjects performed two CKCUEST with an interval of one week between the tests. An intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 3,3 ) two-way mixed model with a 95% interval of confidence was utilized to determine intersession reliability. A Bland-Altman graph was plotted to analyze the agreement between assessments. The presence of systematic error was evaluated by a one-sample t test. The difference between the evaluation and reevaluation was observed using a paired-sample t test. The level of significance was set at 0.05. Standard error of measurements and minimum detectable changes were calculated. The intersession reliability of the average touches score, normalized score, and power score were 0.68, 0.68 and 0.87, the standard error of measurement were 2.17, 1.35 and 6.49, and the minimal detectable change was 6.01, 3.74 and 17.98, respectively. The presence of systematic error (p test with moderate to excellent reliability when used with adolescents. The CKCUEST is a measurement with moderate to excellent reliability for adolescents. 2b.

Degenerate quantum codes and the quantum Hamming bound

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarvepalli, Pradeep; Klappenecker, Andreas

2010-01-01

The parameters of a nondegenerate quantum code must obey the Hamming bound. An important open problem in quantum coding theory is whether the parameters of a degenerate quantum code can violate this bound for nondegenerate quantum codes. In this article we show that Calderbank-Shor-Steane (CSS) codes, over a prime power alphabet q≥5, cannot beat the quantum Hamming bound. We prove a quantum version of the Griesmer bound for the CSS codes, which allows us to strengthen the Rains' bound that an [[n,k,d

Some Improved Nonperturbative Bounds for Fermionic Expansions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lohmann, Martin, E-mail: marlohmann@gmail.com [Universita di Roma Tre, Dipartimento di Matematica (Italy)

2016-06-15

We reconsider the Gram-Hadamard bound as it is used in constructive quantum field theory and many body physics to prove convergence of Fermionic perturbative expansions. Our approach uses a recursion for the amplitudes of the expansion, discovered in a model problem by Djokic (2013). It explains the standard way to bound the expansion from a new point of view, and for some of the amplitudes provides new bounds, which avoid the use of Fourier transform, and are therefore superior to the standard bounds for models like the cold interacting Fermi gas.

Search for weakly decaying $\\overline{\\Lambda\\mathrm{n}}$ and $\\Lambda\\Lambda $ exotic bound states in central Pb-Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}$ = 2.76 TeV

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Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Scott, Rebecca Michelle; Seeder, Karin Soraya; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Seo, Jeewon; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabanov, Arseniy; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shadura, Oksana; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Natasha; Shigaki, Kenta; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Sielewicz, Krzysztof Marek; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Silvestre, Catherine Micaela; Simatovic, Goran; Simonetti, Giuseppe; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singha, Subhash; Singhal, Vikas; Sinha, Bikash; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Snellman, Tomas Wilhelm; Soegaard, Carsten; Soltz, Ron Ariel; Song, Jihye; Song, Myunggeun; Song, Zixuan; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Spacek, Michal; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, Martha; Srivastava, Brijesh Kumar; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stefanek, Grzegorz; Steinpreis, Matthew Donald; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Steyn, Gideon Francois; Stiller, Johannes Hendrik; Stocco, Diego; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Symons, Timothy; Szabo, Alexander; Szanto De Toledo, Alejandro; Szarka, Imrich; Szczepankiewicz, Adam; Szymanski, Maciej Pawel; Takahashi, Jun; Tanaka, Naoto; Tangaro, Marco-Antonio; Tapia Takaki, Daniel Jesus; Tarantola Peloni, Attilio; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-Gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Teyssier, Boris; Thaeder, Jochen Mathias; Thomas, Deepa; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Trogolo, Stefano; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Utrobicic, Antonija; Vajzer, Michal; Vala, Martin; Valencia Palomo, Lizardo; Vallero, Sara; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Vanat, Tomas; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Varga, Dezso; Diozcora Vargas Trevino, Aurora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vauthier, Astrid; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veen, Annelies Marianne; Veldhoen, Misha; Velure, Arild; Venaruzzo, Massimo; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vernet, Renaud; Verweij, Marta; Vickovic, Linda; Viesti, Giuseppe; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Vinogradov, Yury; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Viyogi, Yogendra; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Vulpescu, Bogdan; Vyushin, Alexey; Wagner, Boris; Wagner, Jan; Wang, Hongkai; Wang, Mengliang; Wang, Yifei; Watanabe, Daisuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilde, Martin Rudolf; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Williams, Crispin; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Winn, Michael Andreas; Yaldo, Chris G; Yamaguchi, Yorito; Yang, Hongyan; Yang, Ping; Yano, Satoshi; Yasnopolskiy, Stanislav; Yin, Zhongbao; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Yoo, In-Kwon; Yurchenko, Volodymyr; Yushmanov, Igor; Zaborowska, Anna; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Correia Zanoli, Henrique Jose; Zaporozhets, Sergey; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zgura, Sorin Ion; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zhu, Xiangrong; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Alice; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zyzak, Maksym

2016-01-10

We present results of a search for two hypothetical strange dibaryon states, i.e. the H-dibaryon and the possible $\\overline{\\Lambda\\mathrm{n}}$ bound state. The search is performed with the ALICE detector in central (0-10%) Pb-Pb collisions at $ \\sqrt{s_{\\rm{NN}}} = 2.76$ TeV, by invariant mass analysis in the decay modes $\\overline{\\Lambda\\mathrm{n}} \\rightarrow \\overline{\\mathrm{d}} \\pi^{+} $ and H-dibaryon $\\rightarrow \\Lambda \\mathrm{p} \\pi^{-}$. No evidence for these bound states is observed. Upper limits are determined at 99% confidence level for a wide range of lifetimes and for the full range of branching ratios. The results are compared to thermal, coalescence and hybrid UrQMD model expectations, which describe correctly the production of other loosely bound states, like the deuteron and the hypertriton.

Sharp Bounds for Symmetric and Asymmetric Diophantine Approximation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Cornelis KRAAIKAMP; Ionica SMEETS

2011-01-01

In 2004,Tong found bounds for the approximation quality of a regular continued fraction convergent to a rational number,expressed in bounds for both the previous and next approximation.The authors sharpen his results with a geometric method and give both sharp upper and lower bounds.The asymptotic frequencies that these bounds occur are also calculated.

Confidence bands for inverse regression models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

2010-01-01

We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

Nuclear power: restoring public confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, L.

1986-01-01

The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)

SHARP ENTRYWISE PERTURBATION BOUNDS FOR MARKOV CHAINS.

Science.gov (United States)

Thiede, Erik; VAN Koten, Brian; Weare, Jonathan

For many Markov chains of practical interest, the invariant distribution is extremely sensitive to perturbations of some entries of the transition matrix, but insensitive to others; we give an example of such a chain, motivated by a problem in computational statistical physics. We have derived perturbation bounds on the relative error of the invariant distribution that reveal these variations in sensitivity. Our bounds are sharp, we do not impose any structural assumptions on the transition matrix or on the perturbation, and computing the bounds has the same complexity as computing the invariant distribution or computing other bounds in the literature. Moreover, our bounds have a simple interpretation in terms of hitting times, which can be used to draw intuitive but rigorous conclusions about the sensitivity of a chain to various types of perturbations.

21 CFR 862.1640 - Protein-bound iodine test system.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Protein-bound iodine test system. 862.1640 Section... Systems § 862.1640 Protein-bound iodine test system. (a) Identification. A protein-bound iodine test system is a device intended to measure protein-bound iodine in serum. Measurements of protein-bound...

Unique Pattern of Protein-Bound Maillard Reaction Products in Manuka (Leptospermum scoparium) Honey.

Science.gov (United States)

Hellwig, Michael; Rückriemen, Jana; Sandner, Daniel; Henle, Thomas

2017-05-03

As a unique feature, honey from the New Zealand manuka tree (Leptospermum scoparium) contains substantial amounts of dihydroxyacetone (DHA) and methylglyoxal (MGO). Although MGO is a reactive intermediate in the Maillard reaction, very little is known about reactions of MGO with honey proteins. We hypothesized that the abundance of MGO should result in a particular pattern of protein-bound Maillard reaction products (MRPs) in manuka honey. A protein-rich high-molecular-weight fraction was isolated from 12 manuka and 8 non-manuka honeys and hydrolyzed enzymatically. By HPLC-MS/MS, 8 MRPs, namely, N-ε-fructosyllysine, N-ε-maltulosyllysine, carboxymethyllysine, carboxyethyllysine (CEL), pyrraline, formyline, maltosine, and methylglyoxal-derived hydroimidazolone 1 (MG-H1), were quantitated. Compared to non-manuka honeys, the manuka honeys were characterized by high concentrations of CEL and MG-H1, whereas the formation of N-ε-fructosyllysine was suppressed, indicating concurrence reactions of glucose and MGO at the ε-amino group of protein-bound lysine. Up to 31% of the lysine and 8% of the arginine residues, respectively, in the manuka honey protein can be modified to CEL and MG-H1, respectively. CEL and MG-H1 concentrations correlated strongly with the MGO concentration of the honeys. Manuka honey possesses a special pattern of protein-bound MRPs, which might be used to prove the reliability of labeled MGO levels in honeys and possibly enable the detection of fraudulent MGO or DHA addition to honey.

Relativistic bound state wave functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Micu, L.

2005-01-01

A particular method of writing the bound state wave functions in relativistic form is applied to the solutions of the Dirac equation with confining potentials in order to obtain a relativistic description of a quark antiquark bound system representing a given meson. Concerning the role of the effective constituent in the present approach we first observe that without this additional constituent we couldn't expand the bound state wave function in terms of products of free states. Indeed, we notice that if the wave function depends on the relative coordinates only, all the expansion coefficients would be infinite. Secondly we remark that the effective constituent enabled us to give a Lorentz covariant meaning to the potential energy of the bound system which is now seen as the 4th component of a 4-momentum. On the other side, by relating the effective constituent to the quantum fluctuations of the background field which generate the binding, we provided a justification for the existence of some spatial degrees of freedom accompanying the interaction potential. These ones, which are quite unusual in quantum mechanics, in our model are the natural consequence of the the independence of the quarks and can be seen as the effect of the imperfect cancellation of the vector momenta during the quantum fluctuations. Related with all these we remark that the adequate representation for the relativistic description of a bound system is the momentum representation, because of the transparent and easy way of writing the conservation laws and the transformation properties of the wave functions. The only condition to be fulfilled is to find a suitable way to take into account the potential energy of the bound system. A particular feature of the present approach is that the confining forces are due to a kind of glue where both quarks are embedded. This recalls other bound state models where the wave function is factorized in terms of constituent wave functions and the confinement is

Imprecise system reliability and component importance based on survival signature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Geng; Patelli, Edoardo; Beer, Michael; Coolen, Frank P.A.

2016-01-01

The concept of the survival signature has recently attracted increasing attention for performing reliability analysis on systems with multiple types of components. It opens a new pathway for a structured approach with high computational efficiency based on a complete probabilistic description of the system. In practical applications, however, some of the parameters of the system might not be defined completely due to limited data, which implies the need to take imprecisions of component specifications into account. This paper presents a methodology to include explicitly the imprecision, which leads to upper and lower bounds of the survival function of the system. In addition, the approach introduces novel and efficient component importance measures. By implementing relative importance index of each component without or with imprecision, the most critical component in the system can be identified depending on the service time of the system. Simulation method based on survival signature is introduced to deal with imprecision within components, which is precise and efficient. Numerical example is presented to show the applicability of the approach for systems. - Highlights: • Survival signature is a novel way for system reliability and component importance • High computational efficiency based on a complete description of system. • Include explicitly the imprecision, which leads to bounds of the survival function. • A novel relative importance index is proposed as importance measure. • Allows to identify critical components depending on the service time of the system.

Matrix-based system reliability method and applications to bridge networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, W.-H.; Song Junho; Gardoni, Paolo

2008-01-01

Using a matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method, one can estimate the probabilities of complex system events by simple matrix calculations. Unlike existing system reliability methods whose complexity depends highly on that of the system event, the MSR method describes any general system event in a simple matrix form and therefore provides a more convenient way of handling the system event and estimating its probability. Even in the case where one has incomplete information on the component probabilities and/or the statistical dependence thereof, the matrix-based framework enables us to estimate the narrowest bounds on the system failure probability by linear programming. This paper presents the MSR method and applies it to a transportation network consisting of bridge structures. The seismic failure probabilities of bridges are estimated by use of the predictive fragility curves developed by a Bayesian methodology based on experimental data and existing deterministic models of the seismic capacity and demand. Using the MSR method, the probability of disconnection between each city/county and a critical facility is estimated. The probability mass function of the number of failed bridges is computed as well. In order to quantify the relative importance of bridges, the MSR method is used to compute the conditional probabilities of bridge failures given that there is at least one city disconnected from the critical facility. The bounds on the probability of disconnection are also obtained for cases with incomplete information

Bounds on poloidal kinetic energy in plane layer convection

Science.gov (United States)

Tilgner, A.

2017-12-01

A numerical method is presented that conveniently computes upper bounds on heat transport and poloidal energy in plane layer convection for infinite and finite Prandtl numbers. The bounds obtained for the heat transport coincide with earlier results. These bounds imply upper bounds for the poloidal energy, which follow directly from the definitions of dissipation and energy. The same constraints used for computing upper bounds on the heat transport lead to improved bounds for the poloidal energy.

Persistence-Based Branch Misprediction Bounds for WCET Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puffitsch, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

Branch prediction is an important feature of pipelined processors to achieve high performance. However, it can lead to overly pessimistic worst-case execution time (WCET) bounds when being modeled too conservatively. This paper presents bounds on the number of branch mispredictions for local...... dynamic branch predictors. To handle interferences between branch instructions we use the notion of persistence, a concept that is also found in cache analyses. The bounds apply to branches in general, not only to branches that close a loop. Furthermore, the bounds can be easily integrated into integer...... linear programming formulations of the WCET problem. An evaluation on a number of benchmarks shows that with these bounds, dynamic branch prediction does not necessarily lead to higher WCET bounds than static prediction schemes....

Positivity bounds on double parton distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diehl, Markus; Kasemets, Tomas

2013-03-01

Double hard scattering in proton-proton collisions is described in terms of double parton distributions. We derive bounds on these distributions that follow from their interpretation as probability densities, taking into account all possible spin correlations between two partons in an unpolarized proton. These bounds constrain the size of the polarized distributions and can for instance be used to set upper limits on the effects of spin correlations in double hard scattering. We show that the bounds are stable under leading-order DGLAP evolution to higher scales.

Development of KSC program for investigating and generating field failure rates. Reliability handbook for ground support equipment

Science.gov (United States)

Bloomquist, C. E.; Kallmeyer, R. H.

1972-01-01

Field failure rates and confidence factors are presented for 88 identifiable components of the ground support equipment at the John F. Kennedy Space Center. For most of these, supplementary information regarding failure mode and cause is tabulated. Complete reliability assessments are included for three systems, eight subsystems, and nine generic piece-part classifications. Procedures for updating or augmenting the reliability results are also included.

Comparison of Lasserre's Measure-based Bounds for Polynomial Optimization to Bounds Obtained by Simulated Annealing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Klerk, Etienne; Laurent, Monique

We consider the problem of minimizing a continuous function f over a compact set K. We compare the hierarchy of upper bounds proposed by Lasserre in [SIAM J. Optim. 21(3) (2011), pp. 864-885] to bounds that may be obtained from simulated annealing. We show that, when f is a polynomial and K a convex

Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence

OpenAIRE

Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten

2009-01-01

A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.

Universal bounds in even-spin CFTs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qualls, Joshua D. [Department of Physics, National Taiwan University,Taipei, Taiwan (China)

2015-12-01

We prove using invariance under the modular S− and ST−transformations that every unitary two-dimensional conformal field theory (CFT) having only even-spin primary operators (with no extended chiral algebra and with right- and left-central charges c,c̃>1) contains a primary operator with dimension Δ{sub 1} satisfying 0<Δ{sub 1}<((c+c̃)/24)+0.09280…. After deriving both analytical and numerical bounds, we discuss how to extend our methods to bound higher conformal dimensions before deriving lower and upper bounds on the number of primary operators in a given energy range. Using the AdS{sub 3}/CFT{sub 2} dictionary, the bound on Δ{sub 1} proves the lightest massive excitation in appropriate theories of 3D matter and gravity with cosmological constant Λ<0 can be no heavier than 1/8G{sub N}+O(√(−Λ)); the bounds on the number of operators are related via AdS/CFT to the entropy of states in the dual gravitational theory. In the flat-space approximation, the limiting mass is exactly that of the lightest BTZ black hole.

Reliability assessment of complex electromechanical systems under epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mi, Jinhua; Li, Yan-Feng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2016-01-01

The appearance of macro-engineering and mega-project have led to the increasing complexity of modern electromechanical systems (EMSs). The complexity of the system structure and failure mechanism makes it more difficult for reliability assessment of these systems. Uncertainty, dynamic and nonlinearity characteristics always exist in engineering systems due to the complexity introduced by the changing environments, lack of data and random interference. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the reliability assessment of complex systems. In view of the dynamic characteristics within the system, it makes use of the advantages of the dynamic fault tree (DFT) for characterizing system behaviors. The lifetime of system units can be expressed as bounded closed intervals by incorporating field failures, test data and design expertize. Then the coefficient of variation (COV) method is employed to estimate the parameters of life distributions. An extended probability-box (P-Box) is proposed to convey the present of epistemic uncertainty induced by the incomplete information about the data. By mapping the DFT into an equivalent Bayesian network (BN), relevant reliability parameters and indexes have been calculated. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method is utilized to compute the DFT model with consideration of system replacement policy. The results show that this integrated approach is more flexible and effective for assessing the reliability of complex dynamic systems. - Highlights: • A comprehensive study on the reliability assessment of complex system is presented. • An extended probability-box is proposed to convey the present of epistemic uncertainty. • The dynamic fault tree model is built. • Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used. • The reliability assessment of a complex electromechanical system is performed.

Consumer confidence or the business cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

2014-01-01

Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

Monitoring of the release of gaseous and aerosol-bound radioactive materials. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

KTA 1503 contains requirements on technical installations and supplementary organizational measures considered necessary in order to monitor the release of gaseous and aerosol-bound radioactive materials. It consists of part 1: Monitoring of the release of radioactive materials together with stack gas during normal operation; part 2: Monitoring of the release of radioactive materials together with stack gas in the event of incidents; part 3: Monitoring of radioactive materials not released together with stack gas. The concept on which this rule is based is to ensure that in the case of incidents during which the result of effluent monitoring remains meaningful, such monitoring can be reliably performed. (orig./HSCH) [de

Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

2010-01-01

Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

Lower bounds for the minimum distance of algebraic geometry codes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beelen, Peter

, such as the Goppa bound, the Feng-Rao bound and the Kirfel-Pellikaan bound. I will finish my talk by giving several examples. Especially for two-point codes, the generalized order bound is fairly easy to compute. As an illustration, I will indicate how a lower bound can be obtained for the minimum distance of some...... description of these codes in terms of order domains has been found. In my talk I will indicate how one can use the ideas behind the order bound to obtain a lower bound for the minimum distance of any AG-code. After this I will compare this generalized order bound with other known lower bounds...

Heterogeneous upper-bound finite element limit analysis of masonry walls out-of-plane loaded

Science.gov (United States)

Milani, G.; Zuccarello, F. A.; Olivito, R. S.; Tralli, A.

2007-11-01

A heterogeneous approach for FE upper bound limit analyses of out-of-plane loaded masonry panels is presented. Under the assumption of associated plasticity for the constituent materials, mortar joints are reduced to interfaces with a Mohr Coulomb failure criterion with tension cut-off and cap in compression, whereas for bricks both limited and unlimited strength are taken into account. At each interface, plastic dissipation can occur as a combination of out-of-plane shear, bending and torsion. In order to test the reliability of the model proposed, several examples of dry-joint panels out-of-plane loaded tested at the University of Calabria (Italy) are discussed. Numerical results are compared with experimental data for three different series of walls at different values of the in-plane compressive vertical loads applied. The comparisons show that reliable predictions of both collapse loads and failure mechanisms can be obtained by means of the numerical procedure employed.

Reliability of movement control tests in the lumbar spine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

de Bruin Eling D

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Movement control dysfunction [MCD] reduces active control of movements. Patients with MCD might form an important subgroup among patients with non specific low back pain. The diagnosis is based on the observation of active movements. Although widely used clinically, only a few studies have been performed to determine the test reliability. The aim of this study was to determine the inter- and intra-observer reliability of movement control dysfunction tests of the lumbar spine. Methods We videoed patients performing a standardized test battery consisting of 10 active movement tests for motor control in 27 patients with non specific low back pain and 13 patients with other diagnoses but without back pain. Four physiotherapists independently rated test performances as correct or incorrect per observation, blinded to all other patient information and to each other. The study was conducted in a private physiotherapy outpatient practice in Reinach, Switzerland. Kappa coefficients, percentage agreements and confidence intervals for inter- and intra-rater results were calculated. Results The kappa values for inter-tester reliability ranged between 0.24 – 0.71. Six tests out of ten showed a substantial reliability [k > 0.6]. Intra-tester reliability was between 0.51 – 0.96, all tests but one showed substantial reliability [k > 0.6]. Conclusion Physiotherapists were able to reliably rate most of the tests in this series of motor control tasks as being performed correctly or not, by viewing films of patients with and without back pain performing the task.

Absolute Lower Bound on the Bounce Action

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Ryosuke; Takimoto, Masahiro

2018-03-01

The decay rate of a false vacuum is determined by the minimal action solution of the tunneling field: bounce. In this Letter, we focus on models with scalar fields which have a canonical kinetic term in N (>2 ) dimensional Euclidean space, and derive an absolute lower bound on the bounce action. In the case of four-dimensional space, we show the bounce action is generically larger than 24 /λcr, where λcr≡max [-4 V (ϕ )/|ϕ |4] with the false vacuum being at ϕ =0 and V (0 )=0 . We derive this bound on the bounce action without solving the equation of motion explicitly. Our bound is derived by a quite simple discussion, and it provides useful information even if it is difficult to obtain the explicit form of the bounce solution. Our bound offers a sufficient condition for the stability of a false vacuum, and it is useful as a quick check on the vacuum stability for given models. Our bound can be applied to a broad class of scalar potential with any number of scalar fields. We also discuss a necessary condition for the bounce action taking a value close to this lower bound.

Evacuation of Bed-bound Patients-STEPS Simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Anne; Dederichs, Anne Simone

2016-01-01

Fires in hospitals occur, and evacuation of bed-bound patients might be necessary in case of emergency. The current study concerns the evacuation of bed-bound patients from a fire section in a hospital using hospital porters. The simulations are performed using the STEPS program. The aim...... of the study is to investigate the evacuation time of bed-bound hospital patients using different walking speeds from the literature, and the influence of the number of hospital porters on the total evacuation times of bed-bound patients. Different scenarios were carried out with varying staff......-to-patient ratios that simulate the horizontal evacuation of 40 bed-bound patients into a different fire section. It was found that the staff-to-patient-ratio affects the total evacuation times. However, the total evacuation times do not decrease linearly and a saturation effect is seen at a staff-to-patient ratio...

Bounds in the location-allocation problem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juel, Henrik

1981-01-01

Develops a family of stronger lower bounds on the objective function value of the location-allocation problem. Solution methods proposed to solve problems in location-allocation; Efforts to develop a more efficient bound solution procedure; Determination of the locations of the sources....

No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

2014-01-01

We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

2017-11-01

Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Architecture-independent power bound for vibration energy harvesters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halvorsen, E; Le, C P; Mitcheson, P D; Yeatman, E M

2013-01-01

The maximum output power of energy harvesters driven by harmonic vibrations is well known for a range of specific harvester architectures. An architecture-independent bound based on the mechanical input-power also exists and gives a strict limit on achievable power with one mechanical degree of freedom, but is a least upper bound only for lossless devices. We report a new theoretical bound on the output power of vibration energy harvesters that includes parasitic, linear mechanical damping while still being architecture independent. This bound greatly improves the previous bound at moderate force amplitudes and is compared to the performance of established harvester architectures which are shown to agree with it in limiting cases. The bound is a hard limit on achievable power with one mechanical degree of freedom and can not be circumvented by transducer or power-electronic-interface design

Uniform bounds for Black--Scholes implied volatility

OpenAIRE

Tehranchi, Michael R.

2015-01-01

In this note, Black--Scholes implied volatility is expressed in terms of various optimisation problems. From these representations, upper and lower bounds are derived which hold uniformly across moneyness and call price. Various symmetries of the Black--Scholes formula are exploited to derive new bounds from old. These bounds are used to reprove asymptotic formulae for implied volatility at extreme strikes and/or maturities.

Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki

2008-01-01

Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested

Simulation bounds for system availability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tietjen, G.L.; Waller, R.A.

1976-01-01

System availability is a dominant factor in the practicality of nuclear power electrical generating plants. A proposed model for obtaining either lower bounds or interval estimates on availability uses observed data on ''n'' failure-to-repair cycles of the system to estimate the parameters in the time-to-failure and time-to-repair models. These estimates are then used in simulating failure/repair cycles of the system. The availability estimate is obtained for each of 5000 samples of ''n'' failure/repair cycles to form a distribution of estimates. Specific percentile points of those simulated distributions are selected as lower simulation bounds or simulation interval bounds for the system availability. The method is illustrated with operational data from two nuclear plants for which an exponential time-to-failure and a lognormal time-to-repair are assumed

Reliability enhancement through optimal burn-in

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, W.

1984-06-01

A numerical reliability and cost model is defined for production line burn-in tests of electronic components. The necessity of burn-in is governed by upper and lower bounds: burn-in is mandatory for operation-critical or nonreparable component; no burn-in is needed when failure effects are insignificant or easily repairable. The model considers electronic systems in terms of a series of components connected by a single black box. The infant mortality rate is described with a Weibull distribution. Performance reaches a steady state after burn-in, and the cost of burn-in is a linear function for each component. A minimum cost is calculated among the costs and total time of burn-in, shop repair, and field repair, with attention given to possible losses in future sales from inadequate burn-in testing.

Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

OpenAIRE

Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek

2006-01-01

The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...

HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein?protein interactions from more than 100 species

OpenAIRE

L?pez, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

2015-01-01

HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein?protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein?protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of p...

Reliability of goniometry in Labrador Retrievers.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaegger, Gayle; Marcellin-Little, Denis J; Levine, David

2002-07-01

To evaluate the reliability of goniometry by comparing goniometric measurements with radiographic measurements and evaluate the effects of sedation on range of joint motion. 16 healthy adult Labrador Retrievers. 3 investigators blindly and independently measured range of motion of the carpus, elbow, shoulder, tarsus, stifle, and hip joints of 16 Labrador Retrievers in triplicate before and after dogs were sedated. Radiographs of all joints in maximal flexion and extension were made during under sedation. Goniometric measurements were compared with radiographic measurements. The influence of sedation and the intra- and intertester variability were evaluated; 95% confidence intervals for all ranges of motion were determined. Results of goniometric and radiographic measurements were not significantly different. Results of measurements made by the 3 investigators were not significantly different. Multiple measurements made by 1 investigator varied from 1 to 6 degrees (median, 3 degrees) depending on the joint. Sedation did not influence the range of motion of the evaluated joints. Goniometry is a reliable and objective method for determining range of motion of joints in healthy Labrador Retrievers.

Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

2018-02-01

Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

Bounds on fluid permeability for viscous flow through porous media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berryman, J.G.

1985-01-01

General properties of variational bounds on Darcy's constant for slow viscous flow through porous media are studied. The bounds are also evaluated numerically for the penetrable sphere model. The bound of Doi depending on two-point correlations and the analytical bound of Weissberg and Prager give comparable results in the low density limit but the analytical bound is superior for higher densities. Prager's bound depending on three-point correlation functions is worse than the analytical bound at low densities but better (although comparable to it) at high densities. A procedure for methodically improving Prager's three point bound is presented. By introducing a Gaussian trial function, the three-point bound is improved by an order of magnitude for moderate values of porosity. The new bounds are comparable in magnitude to the Kozeny--Carman empirical relation for porous materials

The reliability of the Adelaide in-shoe foot model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop, Chris; Hillier, Susan; Thewlis, Dominic

2017-07-01

Understanding the biomechanics of the foot is essential for many areas of research and clinical practice such as orthotic interventions and footwear development. Despite the widespread attention paid to the biomechanics of the foot during gait, what largely remains unknown is how the foot moves inside the shoe. This study investigated the reliability of the Adelaide In-Shoe Foot Model, which was designed to quantify in-shoe foot kinematics and kinetics during walking. Intra-rater reliability was assessed in 30 participants over five walking trials whilst wearing shoes during two data collection sessions, separated by one week. Sufficient reliability for use was interpreted as a coefficient of multiple correlation and intra-class correlation coefficient of >0.61. Inter-rater reliability was investigated separately in a second sample of 10 adults by two researchers with experience in applying markers for the purpose of motion analysis. The results indicated good consistency in waveform estimation for most kinematic and kinetic data, as well as good inter-and intra-rater reliability. The exception is the peak medial ground reaction force, the minimum abduction angle and the peak abduction/adduction external hindfoot joint moments which resulted in less than acceptable repeatability. Based on our results, the Adelaide in-shoe foot model can be used with confidence for 24 commonly measured biomechanical variables during shod walking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Neerland, Carrie E

2018-06-06

Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Gross Motor Function Classification System Expanded & Revised (GMFCS E & R: reliability between therapists and parents in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela B. R. Silva

2013-10-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several studies have demonstrated the importance of using the Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS to classify gross motor function in children with cerebral palsy, but the reliability of the expanded and revised version has not been examined in Brazil (GMFCS E & R. OBJECTIVE:: To determine the intra- and inter-rater reliability of the Portuguese-Brazil version of the GMFCS E & R applied by therapists and compare to classification provided by parents of children with cerebral palsy. METHOD: Data were obtained from 90 children with cerebral palsy, aged 4 to 18 years old, attending the neurology or rehabilitation service of a Brazilian hospital. Therapists classified the children's motor function using the GMFCS E & R and parents used the Brazilian Portuguese version of the GMFCS Family Report Questionnaire. Intra- and inter-rater reliability was obtained through percentage agreement and Cohen's unweighted Kappa statistics (k. The Chi-square test was used to identify significant differences in the classification of parents and therapists. RESULTS: Almost perfect agreement was reached between the therapists [K=0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.83-0.97] and intra-raters (therapists with K=1.00 [95% confidence interval (1.00-1.00], p<0.001. Agreement between therapists and parents was substantial (k=0.716, confidence interval 0.596-0.836, though parents classify gross motor impairment more severely than therapists (p=0.04. CONCLUSIONS: The Portuguese version of the GMFCS E & R is reliable for use by parents and therapists. Parents tend to classify their children's limitations more severely, because they know their performance in different environments.

Lower bound on inconclusive probability of unambiguous discrimination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yuan; Zhang Shengyu; Duan Runyao; Ying Mingsheng

2002-01-01

We derive a lower bound on the inconclusive probability of unambiguous discrimination among n linearly independent quantum states by using the constraint of no signaling. It improves the bound presented in the paper of Zhang, Feng, Sun, and Ying [Phys. Rev. A 64, 062103 (2001)], and when the optimal discrimination can be reached, these two bounds coincide with each other. An alternative method of constructing an appropriate measurement to prove the lower bound is also presented

Models and Techniques for Proving Data Structure Lower Bounds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kasper Green

In this dissertation, we present a number of new techniques and tools for proving lower bounds on the operational time of data structures. These techniques provide new lines of attack for proving lower bounds in both the cell probe model, the group model, the pointer machine model and the I...... bound of tutq = (lgd􀀀1 n). For ball range searching, we get a lower bound of tutq = (n1􀀀1=d). The highest previous lower bound proved in the group model does not exceed ((lg n= lg lg n)2) on the maximum of tu and tq. Finally, we present a new technique for proving lower bounds....../O-model. In all cases, we push the frontiers further by proving lower bounds higher than what could possibly be proved using previously known techniques. For the cell probe model, our results have the following consequences: The rst (lg n) query time lower bound for linear space static data structures...

Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Oshins

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

Stacked spheres and lower bound theorem

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

BASUDEB DATTA

2011-11-20

Nov 20, 2011 ... Preliminaries. Lower bound theorem. On going work. Definitions. An n-simplex is a convex hull of n + 1 affinely independent points. (called vertices) in some Euclidean space R. N . Stacked spheres and lower bound theorem. Basudeb Datta. Indian Institute of Science. 2 / 27 ...

Exponential Lower Bounds For Policy Iteration

OpenAIRE

Fearnley, John

2010-01-01

We study policy iteration for infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. It has recently been shown policy iteration style algorithms have exponential lower bounds in a two player game setting. We extend these lower bounds to Markov decision processes with the total reward and average-reward optimality criteria.

An upper bound on Q-star masses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hochron, D.R.; Selipsky, S.B.

1992-06-01

Q-stars (the gravitational generalization of Q-balls, strongly bound bulk matter that an appear in field theories of strongly interacting hadrons) are the only known impact objects consistent with the known bulk structure of nuclei and chiral symmetry that evade the Rhoades-Ruffini upper bound of 3.2M circle-dot . Generic bounds are quite weak: M Q-star circle-dot . If, however, we assume that the 1.558 ms pulsar is a Q-star, equilibrium. A stability criteria of rotating fluids place a much stronger upper bound of M c ≤ 5.3M circle-dot on such models under certain special assumptions. This has important implications for heavy compact objects such as Cygnus X-1

ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Luis, Gache

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

Upper bounds for reversible circuits based on Young subgroups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abdessaied, Nabila; Soeken, Mathias; Thomsen, Michael Kirkedal

2014-01-01

We present tighter upper bounds on the number of Toffoli gates needed in reversible circuits. Both multiple controlled Toffoli gates and mixed polarity Toffoli gates have been considered for this purpose. The calculation of the bounds is based on a synthesis approach based on Young subgroups...... that results in circuits using a more generalized gate library. Starting from an upper bound for this library we derive new bounds which improve the existing bound by around 77%....

Computationally efficient SVM multi-class image recognition with confidence measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makili, Lazaro; Vega, Jesus; Dormido-Canto, Sebastian; Pastor, Ignacio; Murari, Andrea

2011-01-01

Typically, machine learning methods produce non-qualified estimates, i.e. the accuracy and reliability of the predictions are not provided. Transductive predictors are very recent classifiers able to provide, simultaneously with the prediction, a couple of values (confidence and credibility) to reflect the quality of the prediction. Usually, a drawback of the transductive techniques for huge datasets and large dimensionality is the high computational time. To overcome this issue, a more efficient classifier has been used in a multi-class image classification problem in the TJ-II stellarator database. It is based on the creation of a hash function to generate several 'one versus the rest' classifiers for every class. By using Support Vector Machines as the underlying classifier, a comparison between the pure transductive approach and the new method has been performed. In both cases, the success rates are high and the computation time with the new method is up to 0.4 times the old one.

Designing Fault-Injection Experiments for the Reliability of Embedded Systems

Science.gov (United States)

White, Allan L.

2012-01-01

This paper considers the long-standing problem of conducting fault-injections experiments to establish the ultra-reliability of embedded systems. There have been extensive efforts in fault injection, and this paper offers a partial summary of the efforts, but these previous efforts have focused on realism and efficiency. Fault injections have been used to examine diagnostics and to test algorithms, but the literature does not contain any framework that says how to conduct fault-injection experiments to establish ultra-reliability. A solution to this problem integrates field-data, arguments-from-design, and fault-injection into a seamless whole. The solution in this paper is to derive a model reduction theorem for a class of semi-Markov models suitable for describing ultra-reliable embedded systems. The derivation shows that a tight upper bound on the probability of system failure can be obtained using only the means of system-recovery times, thus reducing the experimental effort to estimating a reasonable number of easily-observed parameters. The paper includes an example of a system subject to both permanent and transient faults. There is a discussion of integrating fault-injection with field-data and arguments-from-design.

Uniform Bounds for Black--Scholes Implied Volatility

OpenAIRE

Tehranchi, Michael Rummine

2016-01-01

In this note, Black--Scholes implied volatility is expressed in terms of various optimization problems. From these representations, upper and lower bounds are derived which hold uniformly across moneyness and call price. Various symmetries of the Black--Scholes formula are exploited to derive new bounds from old. These bounds are used to reprove asymptotic formulas for implied volatility at extreme strikes and/or maturities. the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics 10.1137/14095248X

The importance of reliability to the SunShot Initiative (Presentation Recording)

Science.gov (United States)

Jones-Albertus, Rebecca

2015-09-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative was launched in 2011 to make subsidy-free solar electricity cost competitive with conventional energy sources by the end of the decade. Research in reliability can play a major role in realizing the SunShot goal of 0.06/kWh. By improving photovoltaic module lifetime and reducing degradation rates, a system's lifetime energy output is increased. Increasing confidence in photovoltaic performance prediction can lower perceived investment risk and thus the cost of capital. Accordingly, in 2015, SunShot expects to award more than $40 million through its SunShot National Laboratory Multiyear Partnership (SuNLaMP) and Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar (PREDICTS) 2 funding programs, for research into reliability topics such as determining acceleration factors, modeling degradation rates and failure mechanisms, improving predictive performance models, and developing new test methods and instrumentation.

Reliability of a Computerized Neurocognitive Test in Baseline Concussion Testing of High School Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, James; Duerson, Drew

2015-07-01

Baseline assessments using computerized neurocognitive tests are frequently used in the management of sport-related concussions. Such testing is often done on an annual basis in a community setting. Reliability is a fundamental test characteristic that should be established for such tests. Our study examined the test-retest reliability of a computerized neurocognitive test in high school athletes over 1 year. Repeated measures design. Two American high schools. High school athletes (N = 117) participating in American football or soccer during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 academic years. All study participants completed 2 baseline computerized neurocognitive tests taken 1 year apart at their respective schools. The test measures performance on 4 cognitive tasks: identification speed (Attention), detection speed (Processing Speed), one card learning accuracy (Learning), and one back speed (Working Memory). Reliability was assessed by measuring the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between the repeated measures of the 4 cognitive tasks. Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated as a secondary outcome measure. The measure for identification speed performed best (ICC = 0.672; 95% confidence interval, 0.559-0.760) and the measure for one card learning accuracy performed worst (ICC = 0.401; 95% confidence interval, 0.237-0.542). All tests had marginal or low reliability. In a population of high school athletes, computerized neurocognitive testing performed in a community setting demonstrated low to marginal test-retest reliability on baseline assessments 1 year apart. Further investigation should focus on (1) improving the reliability of individual tasks tested, (2) controlling for external factors that might affect test performance, and (3) identifying the ideal time interval to repeat baseline testing in high school athletes. Computerized neurocognitive tests are used frequently in high school athletes, often within a model of baseline testing

Proximity effect tunneling into virtual bound state alloys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, I.M.; Roongkkeadsakoon, S.

1984-01-01

The effects of a narrow virtual bound state formed by transition metal impurities dissolved in the normal layer of a superconducting proximity effect sandwich are studied. Using standard renormalization techniques, we obtain the changes in the transition temperatures and the jumps in the specific heat at T/sub c/ as a function of the thickness of the normal layer, of the widths of the virtual bound states, and of the impurity concentrations. It is seen that narrow virtual bound states lead to decrease in the transition temperatures, while broad virtual bound states do not. It if further seen that the narrow virtual bound state causes the reduced specific heat jump at T/sub c/ to deviate from the BCS behavior expected of the pure sandwich

A strongly quasiconvex PAC-Bayesian bound

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thiemann, Niklas; Igel, Christian; Wintenberger, Olivier

2017-01-01

We propose a new PAC-Bayesian bound and a way of constructing a hypothesis space, so that the bound is convex in the posterior distribution and also convex in a trade-off parameter between empirical performance of the posterior distribution and its complexity. The complexity is measured by the Ku...

Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Timothy C

2009-06-01

The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

Sharp bounds for periodic solutions of Lipschitzian differential equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zevin, A A

2009-01-01

A general system of Lipschitzian differential equations, containing simultaneously terms without delay and with arbitrary constant and time-varying delays, is considered. For the autonomous case, a lower bound for the period of nonconstant periodic solutions, expressed in the respective supremum Lipschitz constants, is found. For nonautonomous periodic equations, explicit upper bounds for the amplitudes and maximum derivatives of periodic solutions are obtained. For all n ≥ 2, the bounds do not depend on n and, in general, are different from that for n = 1. All the bounds are sharp; they are attained in linear differential equations with piece-wise constant deviating arguments. A relation between the obtained bounds and the sharp bounds in other metrics is established

Bounds for nonlinear composites via iterated homogenization

Science.gov (United States)

Ponte Castañeda, P.

2012-09-01

Improved estimates of the Hashin-Shtrikman-Willis type are generated for the class of nonlinear composites consisting of two well-ordered, isotropic phases distributed randomly with prescribed two-point correlations, as determined by the H-measure of the microstructure. For this purpose, a novel strategy for generating bounds has been developed utilizing iterated homogenization. The general idea is to make use of bounds that may be available for composite materials in the limit when the concentration of one of the phases (say phase 1) is small. It then follows from the theory of iterated homogenization that it is possible, under certain conditions, to obtain bounds for more general values of the concentration, by gradually adding small amounts of phase 1 in incremental fashion, and sequentially using the available dilute-concentration estimate, up to the final (finite) value of the concentration (of phase 1). Such an approach can also be useful when available bounds are expected to be tighter for certain ranges of the phase volume fractions. This is the case, for example, for the "linear comparison" bounds for porous viscoplastic materials, which are known to be comparatively tighter for large values of the porosity. In this case, the new bounds obtained by the above-mentioned "iterated" procedure can be shown to be much improved relative to the earlier "linear comparison" bounds, especially at low values of the porosity and high triaxialities. Consistent with the way in which they have been derived, the new estimates are, strictly, bounds only for the class of multi-scale, nonlinear composites consisting of two well-ordered, isotropic phases that are distributed with prescribed H-measure at each stage in the incremental process. However, given the facts that the H-measure of the sequential microstructures is conserved (so that the final microstructures can be shown to have the same H-measure), and that H-measures are insensitive to length scales, it is conjectured

Four-quark bound states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zouzou, S.

1986-01-01

In the framework of simple non-relativistic potential models, we examine the system consisting of two quarks and two antiquarks with equal or unequal masses. We search for possible bound states below the threshold for the spontaneous dissociation into two mesons. We solve the four body problem by empirical or systematic variational methods and we include the virtual meson-meson components of the wave function. With standard two-body potentials, there is no proliferation of multiquarks. With unequal quark masses, we obtain however exotic (anti Qanti Qqq) bound states with a baryonic antidiquark-quark-quark structure very analogous to the heavy flavoured (Q'qq) baryons. (orig.)

49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

Reliable calculation in probabilistic logic: Accounting for small sample size and model uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferson, S. [Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY (United States)

1996-12-31

A variety of practical computational problems arise in risk and safety assessments, forensic statistics and decision analyses in which the probability of some event or proposition E is to be estimated from the probabilities of a finite list of related subevents or propositions F,G,H,.... In practice, the analyst`s knowledge may be incomplete in two ways. First, the probabilities of the subevents may be imprecisely known from statistical estimations, perhaps based on very small sample sizes. Second, relationships among the subevents may be known imprecisely. For instance, there may be only limited information about their stochastic dependencies. Representing probability estimates as interval ranges on has been suggested as a way to address the first source of imprecision. A suite of AND, OR and NOT operators defined with reference to the classical Frochet inequalities permit these probability intervals to be used in calculations that address the second source of imprecision, in many cases, in a best possible way. Using statistical confidence intervals as inputs unravels the closure properties of this approach however, requiring that probability estimates be characterized by a nested stack of intervals for all possible levels of statistical confidence, from a point estimate (0% confidence) to the entire unit interval (100% confidence). The corresponding logical operations implied by convolutive application of the logical operators for every possible pair of confidence intervals reduces by symmetry to a manageably simple level-wise iteration. The resulting calculus can be implemented in software that allows users to compute comprehensive and often level-wise best possible bounds on probabilities for logical functions of events.

Thermalization Time Bounds for Pauli Stabilizer Hamiltonians

Science.gov (United States)

Temme, Kristan

2017-03-01

We prove a general lower bound to the spectral gap of the Davies generator for Hamiltonians that can be written as the sum of commuting Pauli operators. These Hamiltonians, defined on the Hilbert space of N-qubits, serve as one of the most frequently considered candidates for a self-correcting quantum memory. A spectral gap bound on the Davies generator establishes an upper limit on the life time of such a quantum memory and can be used to estimate the time until the system relaxes to thermal equilibrium when brought into contact with a thermal heat bath. The bound can be shown to behave as {λ ≥ O(N^{-1} exp(-2β overline{ɛ}))}, where {overline{ɛ}} is a generalization of the well known energy barrier for logical operators. Particularly in the low temperature regime we expect this bound to provide the correct asymptotic scaling of the gap with the system size up to a factor of N -1. Furthermore, we discuss conditions and provide scenarios where this factor can be removed and a constant lower bound can be proven.

Information-Theoretic Bounded Rationality and ε-Optimality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A. Braun

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Bounded rationality concerns the study of decision makers with limited information processing resources. Previously, the free energy difference functional has been suggested to model bounded rational decision making, as it provides a natural trade-off between an energy or utility function that is to be optimized and information processing costs that are measured by entropic search costs. The main question of this article is how the information-theoretic free energy model relates to simple ε-optimality models of bounded rational decision making, where the decision maker is satisfied with any action in an ε-neighborhood of the optimal utility. We find that the stochastic policies that optimize the free energy trade-off comply with the notion of ε-optimality. Moreover, this optimality criterion even holds when the environment is adversarial. We conclude that the study of bounded rationality based on ε-optimality criteria that abstract away from the particulars of the information processing constraints is compatible with the information-theoretic free energy model of bounded rationality.

Practical reliability and uncertainty quantification in complex systems : final report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grace, Matthew D.; Ringland, James T.; Marzouk, Youssef M. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Boggs, Paul T.; Zurn, Rena M.; Diegert, Kathleen V. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Pebay, Philippe Pierre; Red-Horse, John Robert (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM)

2009-09-01

The purpose of this project was to investigate the use of Bayesian methods for the estimation of the reliability of complex systems. The goals were to find methods for dealing with continuous data, rather than simple pass/fail data; to avoid assumptions of specific probability distributions, especially Gaussian, or normal, distributions; to compute not only an estimate of the reliability of the system, but also a measure of the confidence in that estimate; to develop procedures to address time-dependent or aging aspects in such systems, and to use these models and results to derive optimal testing strategies. The system is assumed to be a system of systems, i.e., a system with discrete components that are themselves systems. Furthermore, the system is 'engineered' in the sense that each node is designed to do something and that we have a mathematical description of that process. In the time-dependent case, the assumption is that we have a general, nonlinear, time-dependent function describing the process. The major results of the project are described in this report. In summary, we developed a sophisticated mathematical framework based on modern probability theory and Bayesian analysis. This framework encompasses all aspects of epistemic uncertainty and easily incorporates steady-state and time-dependent systems. Based on Markov chain, Monte Carlo methods, we devised a computational strategy for general probability density estimation in the steady-state case. This enabled us to compute a distribution of the reliability from which many questions, including confidence, could be addressed. We then extended this to the time domain and implemented procedures to estimate the reliability over time, including the use of the method to predict the reliability at a future time. Finally, we used certain aspects of Bayesian decision analysis to create a novel method for determining an optimal testing strategy, e.g., we can estimate the 'best' location to

Validation to Portuguese of the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Rodrigo Guimarães dos Santos; Mazzo, Alessandra; Martins, José Carlos Amado; Baptista, Rui Carlos Negrão; Girão, Fernanda Berchelli; Mendes, Isabel Amélia Costa

2015-01-01

Translate and validate to Portuguese the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning. Methodological translation and validation study of a research tool. After following all steps of the translation process, for the validation process, the event III Workshop Brazil - Portugal: Care Delivery to Critical Patients was created, promoted by one Brazilian and another Portuguese teaching institution. 103 nurses participated. As to the validity and reliability of the scale, the correlation pattern between the variables, the sampling adequacy test (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) and the sphericity test (Bartlett) showed good results. In the exploratory factorial analysis (Varimax), item 9 behaved better in factor 1 (Satisfaction) than in factor 2 (Self-confidence in learning). The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) showed coefficients of 0.86 in factor 1 with six items and 0.77 for factor 2 with 07 items. In Portuguese this tool was called: Escala de Satisfação de Estudantes e Autoconfiança na Aprendizagem. The results found good psychometric properties and a good potential use. The sampling size and specificity are limitations of this study, but future studies will contribute to consolidate the validity of the scale and strengthen its potential use.

High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

Data.gov (United States)

Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christof Schwenkel

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

2017-01-01

Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability prediction for structures under cyclic loads and recurring inspections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto W. S. Mello Jr

2009-06-01

Full Text Available This work presents a methodology for determining the reliability of fracture control plans for structures subjected to cyclic loads. It considers the variability of the parameters involved in the problem, such as initial flaw and crack growth curve. The probability of detection (POD curve of the field non-destructive inspection method and the condition/environment are used as important factors for structural confidence. According to classical damage tolerance analysis (DTA, inspection intervals are based on detectable crack size and crack growth rate. However, all variables have uncertainties, which makes the final result totally stochastic. The material properties, flight loads, engineering tools and even the reliability of inspection methods are subject to uncertainties which can affect significantly the final maintenance schedule. The present methodology incorporates all the uncertainties in a simulation process, such as Monte Carlo, and establishes a relationship between the reliability of the overall maintenance program and the proposed inspection interval, forming a “cascade” chart. Due to the scatter, it also defines the confidence level of the “acceptable” risk. As an example, the damage tolerance analysis (DTA results are presented for the upper cockpit longeron splice bolt of the BAF upgraded F-5EM. In this case, two possibilities of inspection intervals were found: one that can be characterized as remote risk, with a probability of failure (integrity nonsuccess of 1 in 10 million, per flight hour; and other as extremely improbable, with a probability of nonsuccess of 1 in 1 billion, per flight hour, according to aviation standards. These two results are compared with the classical military airplane damage tolerance requirements.

Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties

Science.gov (United States)

Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.

2018-02-01

In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.

Bounded-Angle Iterative Decoding of LDPC Codes

Science.gov (United States)

Dolinar, Samuel; Andrews, Kenneth; Pollara, Fabrizio; Divsalar, Dariush

2009-01-01

Bounded-angle iterative decoding is a modified version of conventional iterative decoding, conceived as a means of reducing undetected-error rates for short low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes. For a given code, bounded-angle iterative decoding can be implemented by means of a simple modification of the decoder algorithm, without redesigning the code. Bounded-angle iterative decoding is based on a representation of received words and code words as vectors in an n-dimensional Euclidean space (where n is an integer).

Unexpected strong attraction in the presence of continuum bound state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delfino, A.; Frederico, T.

1992-06-01

The result of few-particle ground-state calculation employing a two-particle non-local potential supporting a continuum bound state in addition to a negative-energy bound state has occasionally revealed unexpected large attraction in producing a very strongly bound ground state. In the presence of the continuum bound state the difference of phase shift between zero and infinite energies has an extra jump of φ as in the presence of an additional bound state. The wave function of the continuum bound state is identical with that of a strongly bound negative-energy state, which leads us to postulate a pseudo bound state in the two-particle system in order to explain the unexpected attraction. The role of the Pauli forbidden states is expected to be similar to these pseudo states. (author)

On the Feng-Rao bound for generalized hamming weights

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geil, Hans Olav; Thommesen, Christian

2006-01-01

The Feng-Rao bound gives good estimates of the minimum distance of a large class of codes. In this work we are concerned with the problem of how to extend the Feng-Rao bound so that it deals with all the generalized Hamming weights. The problem was solved by Heijnen and Pellikaan in [7] for a large...... family of codes that includes the duals of one-point geometric Goppa codes and the q-ary Reed-Muller codes, but not the Feng-Rao improved such ones. We show that Heijnen and Pellikaan's results holds for the more general class of codes for which the traditional Feng-Rao bound can be applied. We also...... establish the connection to the Shibuya-Sakaniwa bound for generalized Hamming weights ([15], [16], [17], [18], [19] and [20]). More precisely we show that the Shibuya-Sakaniwa bound is a consequence of the extended Feng-Rao bound. In particular the extended Feng-Rao bound gives always at least as good...

On the Feng-Rao bound for generalized Hamming weights

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geil, Olav; Thommesen, Christian

2005-01-01

The Feng-Rao bound gives good estimates of the minimum distance of a large class of codes. In this work we are concerned with the problem of how to extend the Feng-Rao bound so that it deals with all the generalized Hamming weights. The problem was solved by Heijnen and Pellikaan in [7] for a large...... family of codes that includes the duals of one-point geometric Goppa codes and the q-ary Reed-Muller codes, but not the Feng-Rao improved such ones. We show that Heijnen and Pellikaan’s results holds for the more general class of codes for which the traditional Feng-Rao bound can be applied. We also...... establish the connection to the Shibuya-Sakaniwa bound for generalized Hamming weights ([15], [16], [17], [18], [19] and [20]). More precisely we show that the Shibuya-Sakaniwa bound is a consequence of the extended Feng-Rao bound. In particular the extended Feng-Rao bound gives always at least as good...

Test-Retest Reliability of Measurements of Hand-Grip Strength Obtained by Dynamometry from Older Adults: A Systematic Review of Research in the PubMed Database.

Science.gov (United States)

Bohannon, R W

2017-01-01

A systematic review was performed to summarize literature describing the test-retest reliability of grip strength measures obtained from older adults. Relevant literature was identified via a PubMed search. Seventeen articles were deemed appropriate based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. The relative test-retest reliability of grip strength measures obtained by dynamometry was good to excellent (intra-class correlation coefficients > 0.80) in all but 3 studies, which involved older adults with severe dementia. Absolute reliability, as indicated by summary statistics such as the minimum detectable change (95%), was more variable. As a percentage, that change ranged from 14.5% to 98.5%. Consequently, clinicians can be confident in the relative reliability of grip strength measures obtained from at risk older adults. However, relatively large percentage changes in grip strength may be necessary to conclude with confidence that a real change has occurred over time in some populations.

Remarks on Bousso's covariant entropy bound

CERN Document Server

Mayo, A E

2002-01-01

Bousso's covariant entropy bound is put to the test in the context of a non-singular cosmological solution of general relativity found by Bekenstein. Although the model complies with every assumption made in Bousso's original conjecture, the entropy bound is violated due to the occurrence of negative energy density associated with the interaction of some the matter components in the model. We demonstrate how this property allows for the test model to 'elude' a proof of Bousso's conjecture which was given recently by Flanagan, Marolf and Wald. This corroborates the view that the covariant entropy bound should be applied only to stable systems for which every matter component carries positive energy density.

User's manual of a support system for human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yokobayashi, Masao; Tamura, Kazuo.

1995-10-01

Many kinds of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been developed. However, users are required to be skillful so as to use them, and also required complicated works such as drawing event tree (ET) and calculation of uncertainty bounds. Moreover, each method is not so complete that only one method of them is not enough to evaluate human reliability. Therefore, a personal computer (PC) based support system for HRA has been developed to execute HRA practically and efficiently. The system consists of two methods, namely, simple method and detailed one. The former uses ASEP that is a simplified THERP-technique, and combined method of OAT and HRA-ET/DeBDA is used for the latter. Users can select a suitable method for their purpose. Human error probability (HEP) data were collected and a database of them was built to use for the support system. This paper describes outline of the HRA methods, support functions and user's guide of the system. (author)

Organically bound tritium analysis in environmental samples

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baglan, N. [CEA/DAM/DIF, Arpajon (France); Kim, S.B. [AECL, Chalk River Laboratories, Chalk River, ON (Canada); Cossonnet, C. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/STEME/LMRE, Orsay (France); Croudace, I.W.; Warwick, P.E. [GAU-Radioanalytical, University of Southampton, Southampton (United Kingdom); Fournier, M. [IRSN/DG/DMQ, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Galeriu, D. [IFIN-HH, Horia-Hulubei, Inst. Phys. and Nucl. Eng., Bucharest (Romania); Momoshima, N. [Kyushu University, Radioisotope Ctr., Fukuoka (Japan); Ansoborlo, E. [CEA/DEN/DRCP/CETAMA, Bagnols-sur-Ceze (France)

2015-03-15

Organically bound tritium (OBT) has become of increased interest within the last decade, with a focus on its behaviour and also its analysis, which are important to assess tritium distribution in the environment. In contrast, there are no certified reference materials and no standard analytical method through the international organization related to OBT. In order to resolve this issue, an OBT international working group was created in May 2012. Over 20 labs from around the world participated and submitted their results for the first intercomparison exercise results on potato (Sep 2013). The samples, specially-prepared potatoes, were provided in March 2013 to each participant. Technical information and results from this first exercise are discussed here for all the labs which have realised the five replicates necessary to allow a reliable statistical treatment. The results are encouraging as the increased number of participating labs did not degrade the observed dispersion of the results for a similar activity level. Therefore, the results do not seem to depend on the analytical procedure used. From this work an optimised procedure can start to be developed to deal with OBT analysis and will guide subsequent planned OBT trials by the international group.

Generalized Hofmann quantum process fidelity bounds for quantum filters

Science.gov (United States)

Sedlák, Michal; Fiurášek, Jaromír

2016-04-01

We propose and investigate bounds on the quantum process fidelity of quantum filters, i.e., probabilistic quantum operations represented by a single Kraus operator K . These bounds generalize the Hofmann bounds on the quantum process fidelity of unitary operations [H. F. Hofmann, Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 160504 (2005), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.94.160504] and are based on probing the quantum filter with pure states forming two mutually unbiased bases. Determination of these bounds therefore requires far fewer measurements than full quantum process tomography. We find that it is particularly suitable to construct one of the probe bases from the right eigenstates of K , because in this case the bounds are tight in the sense that if the actual filter coincides with the ideal one, then both the lower and the upper bounds are equal to 1. We theoretically investigate the application of these bounds to a two-qubit optical quantum filter formed by the interference of two photons on a partially polarizing beam splitter. For an experimentally convenient choice of factorized input states and measurements we study the tightness of the bounds. We show that more stringent bounds can be obtained by more sophisticated processing of the data using convex optimization and we compare our methods for different choices of the input probe states.

Test-retest reliability of behavioral measures of impulsive choice, impulsive action, and inattention.

Science.gov (United States)

Weafer, Jessica; Baggott, Matthew J; de Wit, Harriet

2013-12-01

Behavioral measures of impulsivity are widely used in substance abuse research, yet relatively little attention has been devoted to establishing their psychometric properties, especially their reliability over repeated administration. The current study examined the test-retest reliability of a battery of standardized behavioral impulsivity tasks, including measures of impulsive choice (i.e., delay discounting, probability discounting, and the Balloon Analogue Risk Task), impulsive action (i.e., the stop signal task, the go/no-go task, and commission errors on the continuous performance task), and inattention (i.e., attention lapses on a simple reaction time task and omission errors on the continuous performance task). Healthy adults (n = 128) performed the battery on two separate occasions. Reliability estimates for the individual tasks ranged from moderate to high, with Pearson correlations within the specific impulsivity domains as follows: impulsive choice (r range: .76-.89, ps reliable measures and thus can be confidently used to assess various facets of impulsivity as intermediate phenotypes for drug abuse.

Twisting, supercoiling and stretching in protein bound DNA

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Pui-Man; Zhen, Yi

2018-04-01

We have calculated theoretical results for the torque and slope of the twisted DNA, with various proteins bound on it, using the Neukirch-Marko model, in the regime where plectonemes exist. We found that the torque in the protein bound DNA decreases compared to that in the bare DNA. This is caused by the decrease in the free energy g(f) , and hence the smaller persistence lengths, in the case of protein bound DNA. We hope our results will encourage experimental investigations of supercoiling in protein bound DNA, which can provide further tests of the Neukirch-Marko model.

The bound state problem and quark confinement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaichian, M.; Demichev, A.P.; Nelipa, N.F.

1980-01-01

A quantum field-theoretic model in which quark is confined is considered. System of equations for the Green functions of colour singlet and octet bound states is obtained. The method is based on the nonperturbative Schwinger-Dyson equations with the use of Slavnov-Taylor identities. It is shown that in the framework of the model if there exist singlet, then also exist octet bound states of the quark-antiquark system. Thus in general, confinement of free quarks does not mean absence of their coloured bound states. (author)

``Carbon Credits'' for Resource-Bounded Computations Using Amortised Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jost, Steffen; Loidl, Hans-Wolfgang; Hammond, Kevin; Scaife, Norman; Hofmann, Martin

Bounding resource usage is important for a number of areas, notably real-time embedded systems and safety-critical systems. In this paper, we present a fully automatic static type-based analysis for inferring upper bounds on resource usage for programs involving general algebraic datatypes and full recursion. Our method can easily be used to bound any countable resource, without needing to revisit proofs. We apply the analysis to the important metrics of worst-case execution time, stack- and heap-space usage. Our results from several realistic embedded control applications demonstrate good matches between our inferred bounds and measured worst-case costs for heap and stack usage. For time usage we infer good bounds for one application. Where we obtain less tight bounds, this is due to the use of software floating-point libraries.

Improved rigorous upper bounds for transport due to passive advection described by simple models of bounded systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Chang-Bae; Krommes, J.A.

1988-08-01

The work of Krommes and Smith on rigorous upper bounds for the turbulent transport of a passively advected scalar [/ital Ann. Phys./ 177:246 (1987)] is extended in two directions: (1) For their ''reference model,'' improved upper bounds are obtained by utilizing more sophisticated two-time constraints which include the effects of cross-correlations up to fourth order. Numerical solutions of the model stochastic differential equation are also obtained; they show that the new bounds compare quite favorably with the exact results, even at large Reynolds and Kubo numbers. (2) The theory is extended to take account of a finite spatial autocorrelation length L/sub c/. As a reasonably generic example, the problem of particle transport due to statistically specified stochastic magnetic fields in a collisionless turbulent plasma is revisited. A bound is obtained which reduces for small L/sub c/ to the quasilinear limit and for large L/sub c/ to the strong turbulence limit, and which provides a reasonable and rigorous interpolation for intermediate values of L/sub c/. 18 refs., 6 figs

A new cut-based algorithm for the multi-state flow network reliability problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, Wei-Chang; Bae, Changseok; Huang, Chia-Ling

2015-01-01

Many real-world systems can be modeled as multi-state network systems in which reliability can be derived in terms of the lower bound points of level d, called d-minimal cuts (d-MCs). This study proposes a new method to find and verify obtained d-MCs with simple and useful found properties for the multi-state flow network reliability problem. The proposed algorithm runs in O(mσp) time, which represents a significant improvement over the previous O(mp 2 σ) time bound based on max-flow/min-cut, where p, σ and m denote the number of MCs, d-MC candidates and edges, respectively. The proposed algorithm also conquers the weakness of some existing methods, which failed to remove duplicate d-MCs in special cases. A step-by-step example is given to demonstrate how the proposed algorithm locates and verifies all d-MC candidates. As evidence of the utility of the proposed approach, we present extensive computational results on 20 benchmark networks in another example. The computational results compare favorably with a previously developed algorithm in the literature. - Highlights: • A new method is proposed to find all d-MCs for the multi-state flow networks. • The proposed method can prevent the generation of d-MC duplicates. • The proposed method is simpler and more efficient than the best-known algorithms

The Impact of Automation Reliability and Operator Fatigue on Performance and Reliance

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-23

Cummings et al., 2007). Automation designed to assist operators in overload situations may promote operator disengagement during periods of low...Calhoun et al., 2011). This testbed offers several tasks designed to emulate the cognitive demands that an operator managing multiple UAVs is likely...reliable (Cronbach’s α = 0.94) measure of affective and cognitive components of trust in automation. Items gauge confidence in an automation and

Translation, reliability, and clinical utility of the Melbourne Assessment 2.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, Corinna N; Plebani, Anael; Labruyère, Rob

2017-10-12

The aims were to (i) provide a German translation of the Melbourne Assessment 2 (MA2), a quantitative test to measure unilateral upper limb function in children with neurological disabilities and (ii) to evaluate its reliability and aspects of clinical utility. After its translation into German and approval of the back translation by the original authors, the MA2 was performed and videotaped twice with 30 children with neuromotor disorders. For each participant, two raters scored the video of the first test for inter-rater reliability. To determine test-retest reliability, one rater additionally scored the video of the second test while the other rater repeated the scoring of the first video to evaluate intra-rater reliability. Time needed for rater training, test administration, and scoring was recorded. The four subscale scores showed excellent intra-, inter-rater, and test-retest reliability with intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.90-1.00 (95%-confidence intervals 0.78-1.00). Score items revealed substantial to almost perfect intra-rater reliability (weighted kappa k w  = 0.66-1.00) for the more affected side. Score item inter-rater and test-retest reliability of the same extremity were, with one exception, moderate to almost perfect (k w  = 0.42-0.97; k w  = 0.40-0.89). Furthermore, the MA2 was feasible and acceptable for patients and clinicians. The MA2 showed excellent subscale and moderate to almost perfect score item reliability. Implications for Rehabilitation There is a lack of high-quality studies about psychometric properties of upper limb measurement tools in the neuropediatric population. The Melbourne Assessment 2 is a promising tool for reliable measurement of unilateral upper limb movement quality in the neuropediatric population. The Melbourne Assessment 2 is acceptable and practicable to therapists and patients for routine use in clinical care.

Confidence improvement of disosal safety bydevelopement of a safety case for high-level radioactive waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baik, Min Hoon; Ko, Nak Youl; Jeong, Jong Tae; Kim, Kyung Su [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

Many countries have developed a safety case suitable to their own countries in order to improve the confidence of disposal safety in deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste as well as to develop a disposal program and obtain its license. This study introduces and summarizes the meaning, necessity, and development process of the safety case for radioactive waste disposal. The disposal safety is also discussed in various aspects of the safety case. In addition, the status of safety case development in the foreign countries is briefly introduced for Switzerland, Japan, the United States of America, Sweden, and Finland. The strategy for the safety case development that is being developed by KAERI is also briefly introduced. Based on the safety case, we analyze the efforts necessary to improve confidence in disposal safety for high-level radioactive waste. Considering domestic situations, we propose and discuss some implementing methods for the improvement of disposal safety, such as construction of a reliable information database, understanding of processes related to safety, reduction of uncertainties in safety assessment, communication with stakeholders, and ensuring justice and transparency. This study will contribute to the understanding of the safety case for deep geological disposal and to improving confidence in disposal safety through the development of the safety case in Korea for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste.

Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri

2013-01-01

How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of

Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kramer, Marc M.

2016-01-01

We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

Effect of soil-bound residues of malathion on microbial activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hussain, A.; Iqbal, Z.; Asi, M.R.; Tahira, R.; Chudhary, J.A.

2001-01-01

The effect of soil-bound residues of malathion on CO/sub 2/ evolution, dehydrogenase activity and some nitrogen transformations in a loam soil was investigated under laboratory conditions. The soil samples containing bound residues arising from 10 mg g-1 of the applied malathion were mixed in equal quantity with fresh soil and compared with solvent extracted control soil without bound residues (extracted in the same way as soil containing bound residues). Another control comprising un extracted fresh soil without bound residues was also kept to study the effect of solvent extraction on the biological activity. Rate of Carbon mineralization (CO/sub 2/ evolution) was decreased in the presence of soil-bound residues of malathion. Bound residues also affected dehydrogenase activity of soil. Over 40% inhibition of dehydrogenase activity was observed after 4 days and the inhibition persisted at least for 12 days. Nitrogen mineralization was stimulated in soil containing bound residues of malathion and this stimulatory effect increased with time of incubation. Nitrification was partially inhibited in the presence of soil-bound residues of malathion. The inhibitory effect of the soil-bound residues on nitrification did not show much variation with time. The soil-bound residues did not affect denitrification rate (N/sub 2/O evolution). Nitrogen fixation (acetylene reduction) was partially inhibited in soil amended with bound residues of malathion and the inhibitory effect persisted for at least one week. In general, soil bound residues of malathion inhibited CO/sub 2/ evolution, dehydrogenase activity, nitrification and nitrogen fixation while mineralization of nitrogen was stimulated. Denitrification was not affected by the applied insecticide. (author)

Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, Hiroyuki

2004-01-01

Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)

The Nutrition Literacy Assessment Instrument is a Valid and Reliable Measure of Nutrition Literacy in Adults with Chronic Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, Heather D; Ellerbeck, Edward F; Gajewski, Byron; Zhang, Chuanwu; Sullivan, Debra K

2018-03-01

To test the reliability and validity of the Nutrition Literacy Assessment Instrument (NLit) in adult primary care and identify the relationship between nutrition literacy and diet quality. This instrument validation study included a cross-sectional sample participating in up to 2 visits 1 month apart. A total of 429 adults with nutrition-related chronic disease were recruited from clinics and a patient registry affiliated with a Midwestern university medical center. Nutrition literacy was measured by the NLit, which was composed of 6 subscales: nutrition and health, energy sources in food, food label and numeracy, household food measurement, food groups, and consumer skills. Diet quality was measured by Healthy Eating Index-2010 with nutrient data from Diet History Questionnaire II surveys. The researchers measured factor validity and reliability by using binary confirmatory factor analysis; test-retest reliability was measured by Pearson r and the intraclass correlation coefficient, and relationships between nutrition literacy and diet quality were analyzed by linear regression. The NLit demonstrated substantial factor validity and reliability (0.97; confidence interval, 0.96-0.98) and test-retest reliability (0.88; confidence interval, 0.85-0.90). Nutrition literacy was the most significant predictor of diet quality (β = .17; multivariate coefficient = 0.10; P measuring nutrition literacy in adult primary care patients. Copyright © 2017 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Generalized surface tension bounds in vacuum decay

Science.gov (United States)

Masoumi, Ali; Paban, Sonia; Weinberg, Erick J.

2018-02-01

Coleman and De Luccia (CDL) showed that gravitational effects can prevent the decay by bubble nucleation of a Minkowski or AdS false vacuum. In their thin-wall approximation this happens whenever the surface tension in the bubble wall exceeds an upper bound proportional to the difference of the square roots of the true and false vacuum energy densities. Recently it was shown that there is another type of thin-wall regime that differs from that of CDL in that the radius of curvature grows substantially as one moves through the wall. Not only does the CDL derivation of the bound fail in this case, but also its very formulation becomes ambiguous because the surface tension is not well defined. We propose a definition of the surface tension and show that it obeys a bound similar in form to that of the CDL case. We then show that both thin-wall bounds are special cases of a more general bound that is satisfied for all bounce solutions with Minkowski or AdS false vacua. We discuss the limit where the parameters of the theory attain critical values and the bound is saturated. The bounce solution then disappears and a static planar domain wall solution appears in its stead. The scalar field potential then is of the form expected in supergravity, but this is only guaranteed along the trajectory in field space traced out by the bounce.

Memory for time and place contributes to enhanced confidence in memories for emotional events

Science.gov (United States)

Rimmele, Ulrike; Davachi, Lila; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2012-01-01

Emotion strengthens the subjective sense of remembering. However, these confidently remembered emotional memories have not been found be more accurate for some types of contextual details. We investigated whether the subjective sense of recollecting negative stimuli is coupled with enhanced memory accuracy for three specific types of central contextual details using the remember/know paradigm and confidence ratings. Our results indicate that the subjective sense of remembering is indeed coupled with better recollection of spatial location and temporal context. In contrast, we found a double-dissociation between the subjective sense of remembering and memory accuracy for colored dots placed in the conceptual center of negative and neutral scenes. These findings show that the enhanced subjective recollective experience for negative stimuli reliably indicates objective recollection for spatial location and temporal context, but not for other types of details, whereas for neutral stimuli, the subjective sense of remembering is coupled with all the types of details assessed. Translating this finding to flashbulb memories, we found that, over time, more participants correctly remembered the location where they learned about the terrorist attacks on 9/11 than any other canonical feature. Likewise participants’ confidence was higher in their memory for location vs. other canonical features. These findings indicate that the strong recollective experience of a negative event corresponds to an accurate memory for some kinds of contextual details, but not other kinds. This discrepancy provides further evidence that the subjective sense of remembering negative events is driven by a different mechanism than the subjective sense of remembering neutral events. PMID:22642353

Bound entanglement and local realism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaszlikowski, Dagomir; Zukowski, Marek; Gnacinski, Piotr

2002-01-01

We show using a numerical approach, which gives necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of local realism, that the bound entangled state presented in Bennett et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 5385 (1999)] admits a local and realistic description. We also find the lowest possible amount of some appropriate entangled state that must be ad-mixed to the bound entangled state so that the resulting density operator has no local and realistic description and as such can be useful in quantum communication and quantum computation

Reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

1993-08-01

This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

Inequalities and bounds for nucleon-nucleon scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramandurai, K.S.

1979-08-01

The objective of this work is to derive model-independent inequalities and bounds for nucleon-nucleon elastic scattering amplitudes based on well-established theoretical principles and symmetries. Two classes of methods are used: algebraic and variational. In the algebraic part, the author derives inequalities and bounds for NN amplitudes and observables using their mutual relations and x symmetries. In the variational part, he employs Lagrange's method of undetermined multipliers to evaluate the bounds. He tests the predictions of a sample of proposed phase shifts at three different energies using the results obtained

Conductivity bound from dirty black holes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bitaghsir Fadafan, Kazem, E-mail: bitaghsir@shahroodut.ac.ir

2016-11-10

We propose a lower bound of the dc electrical conductivity in strongly disordered, strongly interacting quantum field theories using holography. We study linear response of black holes with broken translational symmetry in Einstein–Maxwell-dilaton theories of gravity. Using the generalized Stokes equations at the horizon, we derive the lower bound of the electrical conductivity for the dual two dimensional disordered field theory.

Braneworld black holes and entropy bounds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Heydarzade

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The Bousso's D-bound entropy for the various possible black hole solutions on a 4-dimensional brane is checked. It is found that the D-bound entropy here is apparently different from that of obtained for the 4-dimensional black hole solutions. This difference is interpreted as the extra loss of information, associated to the extra dimension, when an extra-dimensional black hole is moved outward the observer's cosmological horizon. Also, it is discussed that N-bound entropy is hold for the possible solutions here. Finally, by adopting the recent Bohr-like approach to black hole quantum physics for the excited black holes, the obtained results are written also in terms of the black hole excited states.

Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

2016-05-01

This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

2015-01-01

Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-01-01

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

Classical Physics and the Bounds of Quantum Correlations.

Science.gov (United States)

Frustaglia, Diego; Baltanás, José P; Velázquez-Ahumada, María C; Fernández-Prieto, Armando; Lujambio, Aintzane; Losada, Vicente; Freire, Manuel J; Cabello, Adán

2016-06-24

A unifying principle explaining the numerical bounds of quantum correlations remains elusive, despite the efforts devoted to identifying it. Here, we show that these bounds are indeed not exclusive to quantum theory: for any abstract correlation scenario with compatible measurements, models based on classical waves produce probability distributions indistinguishable from those of quantum theory and, therefore, share the same bounds. We demonstrate this finding by implementing classical microwaves that propagate along meter-size transmission-line circuits and reproduce the probabilities of three emblematic quantum experiments. Our results show that the "quantum" bounds would also occur in a classical universe without quanta. The implications of this observation are discussed.

Photophysics of aggregated 9-methylthiacarbocyanine bound to polyanions

Science.gov (United States)

Chibisov, Alexander K.; Görner, Helmut

2002-05-01

The photophysical properties of 3,3 '-diethyl-9-methylthiacarbocyanine (DTC) were studied in the presence of polystyrene sulfonate (PSS), polyacrylic acid (PAA) and polymethacrylic acid (PMA). The absorption spectra reflect a monomer/dimer equilibrium in neat aqueous solution and a shift towards bound H-aggregates, bound dimers and bound monomers on increasing the ratio of polyanion residue to dye concentrations ( r). These equilibria also determine the photodeactivation modes of DTC. The fluorescence intensity is reduced, when dimers and aggregates are present and strongly enhanced for low dye loading ( r=10 4). In contrast, the quantum yield of intersystem crossing is enhanced for bound dimers ( r=10 3).

The algebras of bounded and essentially bounded Lebesgue measurable functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mortini Raymond

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Let X be a set in ℝn with positive Lebesgue measure. It is well known that the spectrum of the algebra L∞(X of (equivalence classes of essentially bounded, complex-valued, measurable functions on X is an extremely disconnected compact Hausdorff space.We show, by elementary methods, that the spectrum M of the algebra ℒb(X, ℂ of all bounded measurable functions on X is not extremely disconnected, though totally disconnected. Let ∆ = { δx : x ∈ X} be the set of point evaluations and let g be the Gelfand topology on M. Then (∆, g is homeomorphic to (X, Τdis,where Tdis is the discrete topology. Moreover, ∆ is a dense subset of the spectrum M of ℒb(X, ℂ. Finally, the hull h(I, (which is homeomorphic to M(L∞(X, of the ideal of all functions in ℒb(X, ℂ vanishing almost everywhere on X is a nowhere dense and extremely disconnected subset of the Corona M \\ ∆ of ℒb(X, ℂ.

Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Buratti

2012-09-01

Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

Limits on cold dark matter cosmologies from new anisotropy bounds on the cosmic microwave background

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vittorio, N.; Meinhold, P.; Lubin, P.; Muciaccia, P.F.; Silk, J.

1991-01-01

A self-consistent method is presented for comparing theoretical predictions of and observational upper limits on CMB anisotropy. New bounds on CDM cosmologies set by the UCSB South Pole experiment on the 1 deg angular scale are presented. An upper limit of 4.0 x 10 to the -5th is placed on the rms differential temperature anisotropy to a 95 percent confidence level and a power of the test beta = 55 percent. A lower limit of about 0.6/b is placed on the density parameter of cold dark matter universes with greater than about 3 percent baryon abundance and a Hubble constant of 50 km/s/Mpc, where b is the bias factor, equal to unity only if light traces mass. 22 refs

Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaacs, T

2002-01-01

Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaacs, T

2002-01-01

Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Error Bounds: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Outrata, Jiří; Kruger, A.Y.; Fabian, Marián; Henrion, R.

2010-01-01

Roč. 18, č. 2 (2010), s. 121-149 ISSN 1877-0533 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100750802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506; CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : Error bounds * Calmness * Subdifferential * Slope Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.333, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/MTR/outrata-error bounds necessary and sufficient conditions.pdf

Construct validity and reliability of a checklist for volleyball serve analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cicero Luciano Alves Costa

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the construct validity and reliability of the checklist for qualitative analysis of the overhand serve in Volleyball. Fifty-five male subjects aged 13-17 years participated in the study. The overhand serve was analyzed using the checklist proposed by Meira Junior (2003, which analyzes the pattern of serve movement in four phases: (I initial position, (II ball lifting, (III ball attacking, and (IV finalization. Construct validity was analyzed using confirmatory factorial analysis and reliability through the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. The construct validity was supported by confirmatory factor analysis with the RMSEA results (0.037 [confidence interval 90% = 0.020-0.040], CFI (0.970 and TLI (0.950 indicating good fit of the model. In relation to reliability, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.661, being this value considered acceptable. Among the items on the checklist, ball lifting and attacking showed higher factor loadings, 0.69 and 0.99, respectively. In summary, the checklist for the qualitative analysis of the overhand serve of Meira Junior (2003 can be considered a valid and reliable instrument for use in research in the field of Sports Sciences.

Amos-type bounds for modified Bessel function ratios☆

Science.gov (United States)

Hornik, Kurt; Grün, Bettina

2013-01-01

We systematically investigate lower and upper bounds for the modified Bessel function ratio Rν=Iν+1/Iν by functions of the form Gα,β(t)=t/(α+t2+β2) in case Rν is positive for all t>0, or equivalently, where ν≥−1 or ν is a negative integer. For ν≥−1, we give an explicit description of the set of lower bounds and show that it has a greatest element. We also characterize the set of upper bounds and its minimal elements. If ν≥−1/2, the minimal elements are tangent to Rν in exactly one point 0≤t≤∞, and have Rν as their lower envelope. We also provide a new family of explicitly computable upper bounds. Finally, if ν is a negative integer, we explicitly describe the sets of lower and upper bounds, and give their greatest and least elements, respectively. PMID:24926105

Amos-type bounds for modified Bessel function ratios.

Science.gov (United States)

Hornik, Kurt; Grün, Bettina

2013-12-01

We systematically investigate lower and upper bounds for the modified Bessel function ratio [Formula: see text] by functions of the form [Formula: see text] in case [Formula: see text] is positive for all [Formula: see text], or equivalently, where [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text] is a negative integer. For [Formula: see text], we give an explicit description of the set of lower bounds and show that it has a greatest element. We also characterize the set of upper bounds and its minimal elements. If [Formula: see text], the minimal elements are tangent to [Formula: see text] in exactly one point [Formula: see text], and have [Formula: see text] as their lower envelope. We also provide a new family of explicitly computable upper bounds. Finally, if [Formula: see text] is a negative integer, we explicitly describe the sets of lower and upper bounds, and give their greatest and least elements, respectively.

A geometric bound on F-term inflation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borghese, Andrea; Roest, Diederik; Zavala, Ivonne

We discuss a general bound on the possibility to realise inflation in any minimal supergravity with F-terms. The derivation crucially depends on the sGoldstini, the scalar field directions that are singled out by spontaneous supersymmetry breaking. The resulting bound involves both slow-roll

Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

OpenAIRE

Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

2014-01-01

While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

Energy conditions bounds and supernovae data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima, M.P.; Vitenti, S.D.P.; Reboucas, M.J.

2008-01-01

The energy conditions play an important role in the description of some important properties of the Universe, including the current accelerating expansion phase and the possible recent phase of super-acceleration. In a recent work we have provided a detailed study of the energy conditions for the recent past by deriving bounds from energy conditions and by making the confrontation of the bounds with supernovae data. Here, we extend and update these results in two different ways. First, by carrying out a new statistical analysis for q(z) estimates needed for the confrontation between the bounds and supernovae data. Second, by providing a new picture of the energy conditions fulfillment and violation in the light of the recently compiled Union set of 307 type Ia supernovae and by using two different statistical approaches

Continuous bounded cohomology of locally compact groups

CERN Document Server

2001-01-01

Recent research has repeatedly led to connections between important rigidity questions and bounded cohomology. However, the latter has remained by and large intractable. This monograph introduces the functorial study of the continuous bounded cohomology for topological groups, with coefficients in Banach modules. The powerful techniques of this more general theory have successfully solved a number of the original problems in bounded cohomology. As applications, one obtains, in particular, rigidity results for actions on the circle, for representations on complex hyperbolic spaces and on Teichmüller spaces. A special effort has been made to provide detailed proofs or references in quite some generality.

Reliability and validity of Champion's Health Belief Model Scale for breast cancer screening among Malaysian women.

Science.gov (United States)

Parsa, P; Kandiah, M; Mohd Nasir, M T; Hejar, A R; Nor Afiah, M Z

2008-11-01

Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in Malaysian women, and the use of breast self-examination (BSE), clinical breast examination (CBE) and mammography remain low in Malaysia. Therefore, there is a need to develop a valid and reliable tool to measure the beliefs that influence breast cancer screening practices. The Champion's Health Belief Model Scale (CHBMS) is a valid and reliable tool to measure beliefs about breast cancer and screening methods in the Western culture. The purpose of this study was to translate the use of CHBMS into the Malaysian context and validate the scale among Malaysian women. A random sample of 425 women teachers was taken from 24 secondary schools in Selangor state, Malaysia. The CHBMS was translated into the Malay language, validated by an expert's panel, back translated, and pretested. Analyses included descriptive statistics of all the study variables, reliability estimates, and construct validity using factor analysis. The mean age of the respondents was 37.2 (standard deviation 7.1) years. Factor analysis yielded ten factors for BSE with eigenvalue greater than 1 (four factors more than the original): confidence 1 (ability to differentiate normal and abnormal changes in the breasts), barriers to BSE, susceptibility for breast cancer, benefits of BSE, health motivation 1 (general health), seriousness 1 (fear of breast cancer), confidence 2 (ability to detect size of lumps), seriousness 2 (fear of long-term effects of breast cancer), health motivation 2 (preventive health practice), and confidence 3 (ability to perform BSE correctly). For CBE and mammography scales, seven factors each were identified. Factors for CBE scale include susceptibility, health motivation 1, benefits of CBE, seriousness 1, barriers of CBE, seriousness 2 and health motivation 2. For mammography the scale includes benefits of mammography, susceptibility, health motivation 1, seriousness 1, barriers to mammography seriousness 2 and health

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

Science.gov (United States)

Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

2003-01-01

proposed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The test cases compare different probabilistic methods within NESSUS because it is important that a user can have confidence that estimates of stochastic parameters of a response will be within an acceptable error limit. For each response, the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile, are repeatedly estimated which allows confidence statements to be made for each parameter estimated, and for each method. Thus, the ability of several stochastic methods to efficiently and accurately estimate density parameters is compared using four valid test cases. While all of the reliability methods used performed quite well, for the new LHS module within NESSUS it was found that it had a lower estimation error than MC when they were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile of the four different stochastic responses. Also, LHS required a smaller amount of calculations to obtain low error answers with a high amount of confidence than MC. It can therefore be stated that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ and the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

Reliability physics and engineering time-to-failure modeling

CERN Document Server

McPherson, J W

2013-01-01

Reliability Physics and Engineering provides critically important information that is needed for designing and building reliable cost-effective products. Key features include:  ·       Materials/Device Degradation ·       Degradation Kinetics ·       Time-To-Failure Modeling ·       Statistical Tools ·       Failure-Rate Modeling ·       Accelerated Testing ·       Ramp-To-Failure Testing ·       Important Failure Mechanisms for Integrated Circuits ·       Important Failure Mechanisms for  Mechanical Components ·       Conversion of Dynamic  Stresses into Static Equivalents ·       Small Design Changes Producing Major Reliability Improvements ·       Screening Methods ·       Heat Generation and Dissipation ·       Sampling Plans and Confidence Intervals This textbook includes numerous example problems with solutions. Also, exercise problems along with the answers are included at the end of each chapter. Relia...

Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...

Research on culture-bound syndromes: new directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Guarnaccia, P J; Rogler, L H

1999-09-01

The unprecedented inclusion of culture-bound syndromes in DSM-IV provides the opportunity for highlighting the need to study such syndromes and the occasion for developing a research agenda to study them. The growing ethnic and cultural diversity of the U.S. population presents a challenge to the mental health field to develop truly cross-cultural approaches to mental health research and services. In this article, the authors provide a critique of previous analyses of the relationship between culture-bound syndromes and psychiatric diagnoses. They highlight the problems in previous classificatory exercises, which tend to focus on subsuming the culture-bound syndromes into psychiatric categories and fail to fully investigate these syndromes on their own terms. A detailed research program based on four key questions is presented both to understand culture-bound syndromes within their cultural context and to analyze the relationship between these syndromes and psychiatric disorders. Results of over a decade of research on ataques de nervios, a Latino-Caribbean cultural syndrome, are used to illustrate this research program. The four questions focus on the nature of the phenomenon, the social-cultural location of sufferers, the relationship of culture-bound syndromes to psychiatric disorders, and the social and psychiatric history of the syndrome in the life course of the sufferer.

Class-specific Error Bounds for Ensemble Classifiers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prenger, R; Lemmond, T; Varshney, K; Chen, B; Hanley, W

2009-10-06

The generalization error, or probability of misclassification, of ensemble classifiers has been shown to be bounded above by a function of the mean correlation between the constituent (i.e., base) classifiers and their average strength. This bound suggests that increasing the strength and/or decreasing the correlation of an ensemble's base classifiers may yield improved performance under the assumption of equal error costs. However, this and other existing bounds do not directly address application spaces in which error costs are inherently unequal. For applications involving binary classification, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, performance curves that explicitly trade off false alarms and missed detections, are often utilized to support decision making. To address performance optimization in this context, we have developed a lower bound for the entire ROC curve that can be expressed in terms of the class-specific strength and correlation of the base classifiers. We present empirical analyses demonstrating the efficacy of these bounds in predicting relative classifier performance. In addition, we specify performance regions of the ROC curve that are naturally delineated by the class-specific strengths of the base classifiers and show that each of these regions can be associated with a unique set of guidelines for performance optimization of binary classifiers within unequal error cost regimes.

Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

Science.gov (United States)

Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

2014-01-01

Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

Tritium metrology within different media: focus on organically bound tritium (OBT); Metrologie du tritium dans differentes matrices: cas du tritium organiquement lie (TOL)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baglan, N. [CEA Bruyeres-le-Chatel, DIF, 91 (France); Ansoborlo, E. [CEA Marcoule, DEN/DRCP/CETAMA, 30 (France); Cossonnet, C. [IRSN, DEI/STEME/LMRE, 91 - Orsay (France); Fouhal, L. [CEA Cadarache, DEN/D2S/LANSE, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Deniau, I.; Mokili, M. [SUBATECH/IN2P3/CNRS, 44 - Nantes (France); Henry, A. [AREVA-NC/DQSSE/PR - La Hague, 50 - Beaumont-Hague, (France); Fourre, E. [CEA Saclay, DSM/DRECAM/LSCE, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Olivier, A. [GEA-Marine nationale, 50 - Cherbourg (France)

2010-07-15

The measurement of tritium in its various forms (mainly gas (HT), water (HTO) or solid (hydrides)), is an important key step for evaluating health and environmental risks and finally, dosimetry assessment. In vegetable or animal samples, tritium is often associated with the free water fraction, but may be included in the organic form as organically bound tritium (OBT). In this case, 2 forms exist: (i) a fraction called exchangeable or labile (E-OBT), bound to oxygen and nitrogen atoms, and (ii) a so-called non-exchangeable fraction (NE-OBT) bound to carbon atoms. The main technique for tritium analysis is liquid scintillation, which enables one to measure concentrations in the range of several Bq.L{sup -1}. The standards (AFNOR, ISO) published to date relate only to tritium analysis in water. Only one CETAMA method addresses OBT analysis in biological environments. This method has been tested since 2001 through intercomparison circuits on grass samples collected from the environment. Regarding tritium analysis in water, the strengths are reliability of this analysis at low concentrations (order of Bq.L{sup -1}), robustness and simplicity, and weaknesses are linked to problems of background, conservation and contamination of samples. Concerning OBT analysis, the analysis is reliable for values around 50 Bq.kg{sup -1} of fresh sample. The weaknesses are problems of contamination, reproducibility, analysis time (2 to 6 days) and lack of reference materials. The difficulty to date is the separation between E-OBT and NE-OBT, that will need experimental validation. (authors)

Lower bounds on Q of some dipole shapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kim, Oleksiy S.

2016-01-01

The lower bound on the radiation Q of an arbitrary electrically small antenna shape can be determined by finding the optimal electric current density on the exterior surface of the shape, such that the Q of this current radiating in free space is minimized, and then augmenting it with a magnetic...... current density cancelling the fields inside the shape's surface. The Q of these coupled electric and magnetic currents radiating in free space is the lower bound on Q for the given shape. The approach is exemplified and its general applicability is substantiated by computing the lower bounds...... of spherically capped dipoles and comparing the results to the known bounds of a sphere and a thin cylinder....

Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

2004-04-01

Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

Cyclotron transitions of bound ions

Science.gov (United States)

Bezchastnov, Victor G.; Pavlov, George G.

2017-06-01

A charged particle in a magnetic field possesses discrete energy levels associated with particle rotation around the field lines. The radiative transitions between these levels are the well-known cyclotron transitions. We show that a bound complex of particles with a nonzero net charge displays analogous transitions between the states of confined motion of the entire complex in the field. The latter bound-ion cyclotron transitions are affected by a coupling between the collective and internal motions of the complex and, as a result, differ from the transitions of a "reference" bare ion with the same mass and charge. We analyze the cyclotron transitions for complex ions by including the coupling within a rigorous quantum approach. Particular attention is paid to comparison of the transition energies and oscillator strengths to those of the bare ion. Selection rules based on integrals of collective motion are derived for the bound-ion cyclotron transitions analytically, and the perturbation and coupled-channel approaches are developed to study the transitions quantitatively. Representative examples are considered and discussed for positive and negative atomic and cluster ions.

Bounded Rationality, Retaliation, and the Spread of Urban Violence

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Bruce A.; Wright, Richard

2010-01-01

Drawing from in-depth interviews with 52 active street criminals, this article examines the grounded theoretic implications of bounded rationality for retaliatory street violence. The bounds on rationality that this article explores are anger, uncertainty, and time pressure. These bounds create imperfections in the retaliatory decision-making…

The best confidence interval of the failure rate and unavailability per demand when few experimental data are available

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, J.

1985-01-01

Using a few available data the likelihood functions for the failure rate and unavailability per demand are constructed. These likelihood functions are used to obtain likelihood density functions for the failure rate and unavailability per demand. The best (or shortest) confidence intervals for these functions are provided. The failure rate and unavailability per demand are important characteristics needed for reliability and availability analysis. The methods of estimation of these characteristics when plenty of observed data are available are well known. However, on many occasions when we deal with rare failure modes or with new equipment or components for which sufficient experience has not accumulated, we have scarce data where few or zero failures have occurred. In these cases, a technique which reflects exactly our state of knowledge is required. This technique is based on likelihood density function or Bayesian methods depending on the available prior distribution. To extract the maximum amount of information from the data the best confidence interval is determined

Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard D. Morey

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

Statistical estimation Monte Carlo for unreliability evaluation of highly reliable system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao Gang; Su Guanghui; Jia Dounan; Li Tianduo

2000-01-01

Based on analog Monte Carlo simulation, statistical Monte Carlo methods for unreliable evaluation of highly reliable system are constructed, including direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo method and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo method. The basal element is given, and the statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimators are derived. Direct Monte Carlo simulation method, bounding-sampling method, forced transitions Monte Carlo method, direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo are used to evaluate unreliability of a same system. By comparing, weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimator has smallest variance, and has highest calculating efficiency

Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

Science.gov (United States)

Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

2011-05-01

  Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Jaeger

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

Bounds on the capacity of constrained two-dimensional codes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forchhammer, Søren; Justesen, Jørn

2000-01-01

Bounds on the capacity of constrained two-dimensional (2-D) codes are presented. The bounds of Calkin and Wilf apply to first-order symmetric constraints. The bounds are generalized in a weaker form to higher order and nonsymmetric constraints. Results are given for constraints specified by run-l...

High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

Science.gov (United States)

Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

2018-06-01

We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

Bound entangled states violate a nonsymmetric local uncertainty relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofmann, Holger F.

2003-01-01

As a consequence of having a positive partial transpose, bound entangled states lack many of the properties otherwise associated with entanglement. It is therefore interesting to identify properties that distinguish bound entangled states from separable states. In this paper, it is shown that some bound entangled states violate a nonsymmetric class of local uncertainty relations [H. F. Hofmann and S. Takeuchi, Phys. Rev. A 68, 032103 (2003)]. This result indicates that the asymmetry of nonclassical correlations may be a characteristic feature of bound entanglement

Interactions between macromolecule-bound antioxidants and Trolox during liposome autoxidation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Celik, Ecem Evrim; Amigo Rubio, Jose Manuel; Andersen, Mogens Larsen

2017-01-01

The interactions between free and macromolecule-bound antioxidants were investigated in order to evaluate their combined effects on the antioxidant environment. Dietary fiber (DF), protein and lipid-bound antioxidants, obtained from whole wheat, soybean and olive oil products, respectively and Tr...... of logistic function was successfully used for modelling the oxidation curve of liposomes. Principal component analysis revealed two separate phases of liposome autoxidation.......The interactions between free and macromolecule-bound antioxidants were investigated in order to evaluate their combined effects on the antioxidant environment. Dietary fiber (DF), protein and lipid-bound antioxidants, obtained from whole wheat, soybean and olive oil products, respectively...... of the simple addition effects of Trolox and bound antioxidants with measured values on lipid oxidation revealed synergetic interactions for DF and refined olive oil-bound antioxidants, and antagonistic interactions for protein and extra virgin olive oil-bound antioxidants with Trolox. A generalized version...

Computationally efficient analytic representations of relativistic bound-bound, bound-unbound and unbound-unbound transition matrix elements of hydrogenic atoms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soldatov, A.; Seke, J.; Adam, G.; Polak, M.

2008-01-01

Full text: A closed analytic form for relativistic transition matrix elements between bound-bound, bound-unbound and unbound-unbound relativistic eigenstates of hydrogenic atoms by using the plane-wave expansion for the electromagnetic-field vector potential was derived in a form convenient for large-scale numerical calculations in QED. By applying the obtained formulae, these transition matrix elements can be evaluated analytically and numerically. These exact matrix elements, which to our knowledge have not been calculated as yet, are of great importance in the analysis of various atom-field interaction processes where retardation effects cannot be ignored. The ultimate goal of the ongoing research is to develop a general universal calculation technique for Seke's approximation and renormalization method in QED, for which the usage of the plane vector expansion for the vector potential is a preferable choice. However, our primary interest lies in the Lamb-shift calculation. Our nearest objective is to carry out the plain-style relativistic calculations of the Lamb shift of the energy levels of hydrogen-like atoms and ions from first principles in the second and higher perturbative orders, using the corresponding convenient as well as novel expressions for the magnitude in question as they stand, i.e. without any additional approximations. Due to that there is no way to achieve all the above-declared goals without recourse to large-scale laborious and time-consuming high-precision numerical calculations, having the transition matrix elements of all possible types in an analytic, convenient for their efficient numerical evaluation form, would be highly advantageous and even unavoidable, especially for calculations of various QED effects in higher perturbative orders be it, equally, in traditional or novel approach. (author)

Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

2018-01-01

We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

User`s manual of a support system for human reliability analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yokobayashi, Masao [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Tamura, Kazuo

1995-10-01

Many kinds of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been developed. However, users are required to be skillful so as to use them, and also required complicated works such as drawing event tree (ET) and calculation of uncertainty bounds. Moreover, each method is not so complete that only one method of them is not enough to evaluate human reliability. Therefore, a personal computer (PC) based support system for HRA has been developed to execute HRA practically and efficiently. The system consists of two methods, namely, simple method and detailed one. The former uses ASEP that is a simplified THERP-technique, and combined method of OAT and HRA-ET/DeBDA is used for the latter. Users can select a suitable method for their purpose. Human error probability (HEP) data were collected and a database of them was built to use for the support system. This paper describes outline of the HRA methods, support functions and user`s guide of the system. (author).

Validation to Portuguese of the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Guimarães dos Santos Almeida

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: translate and validate to Portuguese the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning. Material and Methods: methodological translation and validation study of a research tool. After following all steps of the translation process, for the validation process, the event III Workshop Brazil - Portugal: Care Delivery to Critical Patients was created, promoted by one Brazilian and another Portuguese teaching institution. Results: 103 nurses participated. As to the validity and reliability of the scale, the correlation pattern between the variables, the sampling adequacy test (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin and the sphericity test (Bartlett showed good results. In the exploratory factorial analysis (Varimax, item 9 behaved better in factor 1 (Satisfaction than in factor 2 (Self-confidence in learning. The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha showed coefficients of 0.86 in factor 1 with six items and 0.77 for factor 2 with 07 items. Conclusion: in Portuguese this tool was called: Escala de Satisfação de Estudantes e Autoconfiança na Aprendizagem. The results found good psychometric properties and a good potential use. The sampling size and specificity are limitations of this study, but future studies will contribute to consolidate the validity of the scale and strengthen its potential use.

Dark-matter bound states from Feynman diagrams

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Petraki, K.; Postma, M.; Wiechers, M.

2015-01-01

If dark matter couples directly to a light force mediator, then it may form bound states in the early universe and in the non-relativistic environment of haloes today. In this work, we establish a field-theoretic framework for the computation of bound-state formation cross-sections, de-excitation

Ultrasound evaluation of the abductor hallucis muscle: Reliability study

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Hing Wayne A

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Abductor hallucis muscle (AbdH plays an integral role during gait and is often affected in pathological foot conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the within and between-session intra-tester reliability using diagnostic ultrasound of the dorso-plantar thickness, medio-lateral width and cross-sectional area, of the AbdH in asymptomatic adults. Methods The AbdH muscles of thirty asymptomatic subjects were imaged and then measured using a Philips HD11 Ultrasound machine. Interclass correlation coefficients (ICC with 95% confidence intervals (CI were used to calculate both within and between session intra-tester reliability. Results The within-session reliability results demonstrated for dorso-plantar thickness an ICC of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.99–0.99; medio-lateral width an ICC: of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92–0.97 and cross-sectional area an ICC of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.98–0.99. Between-session reliability results demonstrated for dorso-plantar thickness an ICC of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95 to 0.98; medio-lateral width an ICC of 0.94 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96 and for cross-sectional area an ICC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.88. Conclusion Diagnostic ultrasound has the potential to be a reliable tool for evaluating the AbdH muscle in asymptomatic subjects. Subsequent studies may be conducted to provide a better understanding of the AbdH function in foot and ankle pathologies.

Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

2011-01-01

We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

A follow up of the decrease of non exchangeable organically bound tritium levels in the surroundings of a nuclear research center.

Science.gov (United States)

Baglan, N; Alanic, G; Le Meignen, R; Pointurier, F

2011-07-01

In the past decades limited amounts of tritium were handled on the CEA site of Bruyères le Châtel with authorised atmospheric releases. A small fraction of the tritium released entered into environmental samples under three forms: (i) as part of free water (TFWT - Tissue Free Water Tritium), or associated with organic matter in two ways; either (ii) bound to the oxygen and nitrogen atoms of the material as exchangeable organically bound tritium (E-OBT), or (iii) bound to carbon atoms as non exchangeable organically bound tritium (NE-OBT). The first two components provide only a picture of atmospheric tritium concentrations at the sampling time as they are in equilibrium with atmospheric moisture and soil humidity. Unlike these exchangeable forms, however, NE-OBT is tightly bound to the organic matter and provides an integrated record of atmospheric tritium during the growing phase of the vegetation. We mapped NE-OBT in tree leaf samples in an area of about 25×30km(2) around the centre of the CEA site and compared the results with those obtained during a previous sampling exercise in 1989. At this time, the activity levels were almost ten times higher than those observed presently in a similar area almost 20 years later which is consistent with the decrease of atmospheric releases issued from the centre. As the activity levels are now close to environmental background specific attention was also paid to the analytical procedure to ensure reliable low level NE-OBT detection. 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Circumvention of Parker's bound on galactic magnetic monopoles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dicus, D.A.; Teplitz, V.L.; Maryland Univ., College Park

1983-01-01

There is a possibility that a magnetic monopole has been observed. The monopole density implied by the observation appears to violate bounds on the density of such particles derived from the total mass density of the Universe and from the existence of galactic magnetic fields. It is shown that the observation is not inconsistent with these bounds if the monopoles and antimonopoles are bound into positronium like states with principal quantum n high enough so that the Earth's magnetic field will break them apart, but small enough so that the weaker galactic magnetic field will not. A range of values for n are determined and show that lifetimes for such bound states are longer than the current age of the Universe. (author)

Validity and test-retest reliability of a novel simple back extensor muscle strength test.

Science.gov (United States)

Harding, Amy T; Weeks, Benjamin Kurt; Horan, Sean A; Little, Andrew; Watson, Steven L; Beck, Belinda Ruth

2017-01-01

To develop and determine convergent validity and reliability of a simple and inexpensive clinical test to quantify back extensor muscle strength. Two testing sessions were conducted, 7 days apart. Each session involved three trials of standing maximal isometric back extensor muscle strength using both the novel test and isokinetic dynamometry. Lumbar spine bone mineral density was examined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Validation was examined with Pearson correlations ( r ). Test-retest reliability was examined with intraclass correlation coefficients and limits of agreement. Pearson correlations and intraclass correlation coefficients are presented with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Linear regression was used to examine the ability of peak back extensor muscle strength to predict indices of lumbar spine bone mineral density and strength. A total of 52 healthy adults (26 men, 26 women) aged 46.4 ± 20.4 years were recruited from the community. A strong positive relationship was observed between peak back extensor strength from hand-held and isokinetic dynamometry ( r  = 0.824, p  strength test, short- and long-term reliability was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.983 (95% confidence interval, 0.971-0.990), p  strength measures with the novel back extensor strength protocol were -6.63 to 7.70 kg, with a mean bias of +0.71 kg. Back extensor strength predicted 11% of variance in lumbar spine bone mineral density ( p  strength ( p  strength is quick, relatively inexpensive, and reliable; demonstrates initial convergent validity in a healthy population; and is associated with bone mass at a clinically important site.

Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

2008-04-02

A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

Finite energy bounds for $\\piN$ scattering

CERN Document Server

Grassberger, P; Schwela, D

1974-01-01

Upper bounds on energy averaged pi N cross sections are given. Using low energy data and data from pi N backward scattering and NN to pi pi annihilation, it is found that sigma /sub tot/bounds are based on assumptions similar to those underlying Froissart's bound and are equal to it asymptotically. However, at finite but large energies, they increase much slower than what might have been anticipated on purely numerological grounds. Related problems in pp and Kp scattering are also discussed. (25 refs) .

Entropic Lower Bound for Distinguishability of Quantum States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seungho Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available For a system randomly prepared in a number of quantum states, we present a lower bound for the distinguishability of the quantum states, that is, the success probability of determining the states in the form of entropy. When the states are all pure, acquiring the entropic lower bound requires only the density operator and the number of the possible states. This entropic bound shows a relation between the von Neumann entropy and the distinguishability.

Functional Dissociation of Confident and Not-Confident Errors in the Spatial Delayed Response Task Demonstrates Impairments in Working Memory Encoding and Maintenance in Schizophrenia

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Jutta S. Mayer

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Even though extensively investigated, the nature of working memory (WM deficits in patients with schizophrenia (PSZ is not yet fully understood. In particular, the contribution of different WM sub-processes to the severe WM deficit observed in PSZ is a matter of debate. So far, most research has focused on impaired WM maintenance. By analyzing different types of errors in a spatial delayed response task (DRT, we have recently demonstrated that incorrect yet confident responses (which we labeled as false memory errors rather than incorrect/not-confident responses reflect failures of WM encoding, which was also impaired in PSZ. In the present study, we provide further evidence for a functional dissociation between confident and not-confident errors by manipulating the demands on WM maintenance, i.e., the length over which information has to be maintained in WM. Furthermore, we investigate whether these functionally distinguishable WM processes are impaired in PSZ. Twenty-four PSZ and 24 demographically matched healthy controls (HC performed a spatial DRT in which the length of the delay period was varied between 1, 2, 4, and 6 s. In each trial, participants also rated their level of response confidence. Across both groups, longer delays led to increased rates of incorrect/not-confident responses, while incorrect/confident responses were not affected by delay length. This functional dissociation provides additional support for our proposal that false memory errors (i.e., confident errors reflect problems at the level of WM encoding, while not-confident errors reflect failures of WM maintenance. Schizophrenic patients showed increased numbers of both confident and not-confident errors, suggesting that both sub-processes of WM—encoding and maintenance—are impaired in schizophrenia. Combined with the delay length-dependent functional dissociation, we propose that these impairments in schizophrenic patients are functionally distinguishable.

Entropy Bounds for Constrained Two-Dimensional Fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Justesen, Jørn

1999-01-01

The maximum entropy and thereby the capacity of 2-D fields given by certain constraints on configurations are considered. Upper and lower bounds are derived.......The maximum entropy and thereby the capacity of 2-D fields given by certain constraints on configurations are considered. Upper and lower bounds are derived....

Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

Science.gov (United States)

Koehn, Stefan

2013-01-01

Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A

2002-01-01

To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.

Resistance of soil-bound prions to rumen digestion.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuel E Saunders

Full Text Available Before prion uptake and infection can occur in the lower gastrointestinal system, ingested prions are subjected to anaerobic digestion in the rumen of cervids and bovids. The susceptibility of soil-bound prions to rumen digestion has not been evaluated previously. In this study, prions from infectious brain homogenates as well as prions bound to a range of soils and soil minerals were subjected to in vitro rumen digestion, and changes in PrP levels were measured via western blot. Binding to clay appeared to protect noninfectious hamster PrP(c from complete digestion, while both unbound and soil-bound infectious PrP(Sc proved highly resistant to rumen digestion. In addition, no change in intracerebral incubation period was observed following active rumen digestion of unbound hamster HY TME prions and HY TME prions bound to a silty clay loam soil. These results demonstrate that both unbound and soil-bound prions readily survive rumen digestion without a reduction in infectivity, further supporting the potential for soil-mediated transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD and scrapie in the environment.

Resistance of Soil-Bound Prions to Rumen Digestion

Science.gov (United States)

Saunders, Samuel E.; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon L.; Bartz, Jason C.

2012-01-01

Before prion uptake and infection can occur in the lower gastrointestinal system, ingested prions are subjected to anaerobic digestion in the rumen of cervids and bovids. The susceptibility of soil-bound prions to rumen digestion has not been evaluated previously. In this study, prions from infectious brain homogenates as well as prions bound to a range of soils and soil minerals were subjected to in vitro rumen digestion, and changes in PrP levels were measured via western blot. Binding to clay appeared to protect noninfectious hamster PrPc from complete digestion, while both unbound and soil-bound infectious PrPSc proved highly resistant to rumen digestion. In addition, no change in intracerebral incubation period was observed following active rumen digestion of unbound hamster HY TME prions and HY TME prions bound to a silty clay loam soil. These results demonstrate that both unbound and soil-bound prions readily survive rumen digestion without a reduction in infectivity, further supporting the potential for soil-mediated transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) and scrapie in the environment. PMID:22937149

Lying for the Greater Good: Bounded Rationality in a Team

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