Lower Confidence Bounds for the Probabilities of Correct Selection
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Radhey S. Singh
2011-01-01
Full Text Available We extend the results of Gupta and Liang (1998, derived for location parameters, to obtain lower confidence bounds for the probability of correctly selecting the t best populations (PCSt simultaneously for all t=1,…,k−1 for the general scale parameter models, where k is the number of populations involved in the selection problem. The application of the results to the exponential and normal probability models is discussed. The implementation of the simultaneous lower confidence bounds for PCSt is illustrated through real-life datasets.
Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schinkel, Stefan; Marwan, N.; Dimigen, O.; Kurths, J.
2009-01-01
In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.
Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey
Lorenz, Jan
Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.
Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baayen, C; Hougaard, P
2015-01-01
An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...
Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution
Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang
2017-08-01
Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.
Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation
Steve Verrill; Richard A. Johnson
2007-01-01
For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.
Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation
Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson
2007-01-01
For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...
Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation
Steve Verrill
2003-01-01
This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...
Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates
Reid, Stuart G.
2013-05-01
Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.
Lower Bounds to the Reliabilities of Factor Score Estimators.
Hessen, David J
2016-10-06
Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators, Bartlett's factor score estimators, and McDonald's factor score estimators are derived and conditions are given under which these lower bounds are equal. The relative performance of the derived lower bounds is studied using classic example data sets. The results show that estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators are greater than or equal to the estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Bartlett's and McDonald's factor score estimators.
Lower bounds to the reliabilities of factor score estimators
Hessen, D.J.
2017-01-01
Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone’s factor score estimators, Bartlett’s factor score
Comparing two reliability upper bounds for multistate systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meng, Fan C.
2005-01-01
The path-cut reliability bound due to Esary and Proschan [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 65 (1970) 329] and the minimax reliability bound due to Barlow and Proschan [Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing: Probability Models, 1981] for binary systems have been generalized to multistate systems by Block and Savits [J. Appl. Probab. 19 (1982) 391]. Some comparison results concerning the two multistate lower bounds for various types of multistate systems are given by Meng [Probab. Eng. Inform. Sci. 16 (2002) 485]. In this note we compare the two multistate upper bounds and present results which generalize some previous ones obtained by Maymin [J. Stat. Plan. Inference 16 (1987) 337] for binary systems. Examples are given to illustrate our results
A rejection mechanism in 2D bounded confidence provides more conformity
Huet, S.; Deffuant, G.; Jager, W.
This paper explores the dynamics of attitude change in two dimensions resulting from social interaction. We add a rejection mechanism into the 2D bounded confidence (BC) model proposed by Deffuant et al. (2001). Individuals are characterized by two-dimensional continuous attitudes, each associated
An interval-valued reliability model with bounded failure rates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor
2012-01-01
The approach to deriving interval-valued reliability measures described in this paper is distinctive from other imprecise reliability models in that it overcomes the issue of having to impose an upper bound on time to failure. It rests on the presupposition that a constant interval-valued failure...... rate is known possibly along with other reliability measures, precise or imprecise. The Lagrange method is used to solve the constrained optimization problem to derive new reliability measures of interest. The obtained results call for an exponential-wise approximation of failure probability density...
Shaikh, Muhammad Mujtaba; Memon, Abdul Jabbar; Hussain, Manzoor
2016-09-01
In this article, we describe details of the data used in the research paper "Confidence bounds for energy conservation in electric motors: An economical solution using statistical techniques" [1]. The data presented in this paper is intended to show benefits of high efficiency electric motors over the standard efficiency motors of similar rating in the industrial sector of Pakistan. We explain how the data was collected and then processed by means of formulas to show cost effectiveness of energy efficient motors in terms of three important parameters: annual energy saving, cost saving and payback periods. This data can be further used to construct confidence bounds for the parameters using statistical techniques as described in [1].
Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients
Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao
2018-01-01
In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…
Opinion formation and distribution in a bounded-confidence model on various networks
Meng, X. Flora; Van Gorder, Robert A.; Porter, Mason A.
2018-02-01
In the social, behavioral, and economic sciences, it is important to predict which individual opinions eventually dominate in a large population, whether there will be a consensus, and how long it takes for a consensus to form. Such ideas have been studied heavily both in physics and in other disciplines, and the answers depend strongly both on how one models opinions and on the network structure on which opinions evolve. One model that was created to study consensus formation quantitatively is the Deffuant model, in which the opinion distribution of a population evolves via sequential random pairwise encounters. To consider heterogeneity of interactions in a population along with social influence, we study the Deffuant model on various network structures (deterministic synthetic networks, random synthetic networks, and social networks constructed from Facebook data). We numerically simulate the Deffuant model and conduct regression analyses to investigate the dependence of the time to reach steady states on various model parameters, including a confidence bound for opinion updates, the number of participating entities, and their willingness to compromise. We find that network structure and parameter values both have important effects on the convergence time and the number of steady-state opinion groups. For some network architectures, we observe that the relationship between the convergence time and model parameters undergoes a transition at a critical value of the confidence bound. For some networks, the steady-state opinion distribution also changes from consensus to multiple opinion groups at this critical value.
Kurmyshev, Evguenii; Juárez, Héctor A.; González-Silva, Ricardo A.
2011-08-01
Bounded confidence models of opinion dynamics in social networks have been actively studied in recent years, in particular, opinion formation and extremism propagation along with other aspects of social dynamics. In this work, after an analysis of limitations of the Deffuant-Weisbuch (DW) bounded confidence, relative agreement model, we propose the mixed model that takes into account two psychological types of individuals. Concord agents (C-agents) are friendly people; they interact in a way that their opinions always get closer. Agents of the other psychological type show partial antagonism in their interaction (PA-agents). Opinion dynamics in heterogeneous social groups, consisting of agents of the two types, was studied on different social networks: Erdös-Rényi random graphs, small-world networks and complete graphs. Limit cases of the mixed model, pure C- and PA-societies, were also studied. We found that group opinion formation is, qualitatively, almost independent of the topology of networks used in this work. Opinion fragmentation, polarization and consensus are observed in the mixed model at different proportions of PA- and C-agents, depending on the value of initial opinion tolerance of agents. As for the opinion formation and arising of “dissidents”, the opinion dynamics of the C-agents society was found to be similar to that of the DW model, except for the rate of opinion convergence. Nevertheless, mixed societies showed dynamics and bifurcation patterns notably different to those of the DW model. The influence of biased initial conditions over opinion formation in heterogeneous social groups was also studied versus the initial value of opinion uncertainty, varying the proportion of the PA- to C-agents. Bifurcation diagrams showed an impressive evolution of collective opinion, in particular, radical changes of left to right consensus or vice versa at an opinion uncertainty value equal to 0.7 in the model with the PA/C mixture of population near 50/50.
Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken
2012-11-01
Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.
Social Information Is Integrated into Value and Confidence Judgments According to Its Reliability.
De Martino, Benedetto; Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian; Nouguchi, Takao; Sharot, Tali; Love, Bradley C
2017-06-21
How much we like something, whether it be a bottle of wine or a new film, is affected by the opinions of others. However, the social information that we receive can be contradictory and vary in its reliability. Here, we tested whether the brain incorporates these statistics when judging value and confidence. Participants provided value judgments about consumer goods in the presence of online reviews. We found that participants updated their initial value and confidence judgments in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account both the uncertainty of their initial beliefs and the reliability of the social information. Activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of belief update. Analogous to how lower-level perceptual information is integrated, we found that the human brain integrates social information according to its reliability when judging value and confidence. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The field of perceptual decision making has shown that the sensory system integrates different sources of information according to their respective reliability, as predicted by a Bayesian inference scheme. In this work, we hypothesized that a similar coding scheme is implemented by the human brain to process social signals and guide complex, value-based decisions. We provide experimental evidence that the human prefrontal cortex's activity is consistent with a Bayesian computation that integrates social information that differs in reliability and that this integration affects the neural representation of value and confidence. Copyright © 2017 De Martino et al.
Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis
2016-03-01
Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.
Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles
Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green
2002-01-01
Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...
Confidence Estimation of Reliability Indices of the System with Elements Duplication and Recovery
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I. V. Pavlov
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The article considers a problem to estimate a confidence interval of the main reliability indices such as availability rate, mean time between failures, and operative availability (in the stationary state for the model of the system with duplication and independent recovery of elements.Presents a solution of the problem for a situation that often arises in practice, when there are unknown exact values of the reliability parameters of the elements, and only test data of the system or its individual parts (elements, subsystems for reliability are known. It should be noted that the problems of the confidence estimate of reliability indices of the complex systems based on the testing results of their individual elements are fairly common function in engineering practice when designing and running the various engineering systems. The available papers consider this problem, mainly, for non-recovery systems.Describes a solution of this problem for the important particular case when the system elements are duplicated by the reserved elements, and the elements that have failed in the course of system operation are recovered (regardless of the state of other elements.An approximate solution of this problem is obtained for the case of high reliability or "fast recovery" of elements on the assumption that the average recovery time of elements is small as compared to the average time between failures.
Paul L. Patterson; Mark Finco
2009-01-01
This paper explores the information FIA data can produce regarding forest types that were not sampled and develops the equations necessary to define the upper confidence bounds on not-sampled forest types. The problem is reduced to a Bernoulli variable. This simplification allows the upper confidence bounds to be calculated based on Cochran (1977). Examples are...
Kano, Liena; Verbeke, Alain
2015-01-01
Alfred Chandler, the celebrated business historian, provided detailed descriptions of the reasons for failed human commitments and the managerial tools needed to prevent/remediate such failings in the context of large business firms. Chandler's historical narrative identifies three distinct “faces” of bounded reliability—opportunism, benevolent preference reversal, and identity-based discordance—as the main drivers of commitment failure. Adopting bounded reliability (BRel) as a micro-foundati...
New bounds on the reliability of the consecutive k-out-of-r-from-n:F system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Habib, A.; Szantai, T.
2000-01-01
The main goal of this article is to show that the lower and upper bounds on the failing probability resp. reliability of consecutive k-out-of-r-from-n:F reliability systems developed by Sfakianakis, Kounias and Hillaris [M. Sfakianakis, S. Kounias, A. Hillaris, IEEE Trans. Reliability 1992;R-41:442-447] can be improved by applying fourth order Boole-Bonferroni bounds. Further we propose the application of the Hunter-Worsley bound in the framework of reliability system analysis, too. Numerical results of the formerly published test examples and harder problems are given. The computer code was written in FORTRAN and is available on request from the authors
Overestimation of reliability by Guttman’s λ4, λ5, and λ6, and the greatest lower bound
Oosterwijk, P.R.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.; van der Ark, L.A.; Wiberg, M.; Culpepper, S.A.; Douglas, J.A.; Wang, W.-C.
2017-01-01
For methods using statistical optimization to estimate lower bounds to test-score reliability, we investigated the degree to which they overestimate true reliability. Optimization methods do not only exploit real relationships between items but also tend to capitalize on sampling error and do this
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James
2007-01-01
An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Do, Duy Minh; Gao, Wei; Song, Chongmin; Tangaramvong, Sawekchai
2014-01-01
This paper presents the non-deterministic dynamic analysis and reliability assessment of structures with uncertain-but-bounded parameters under stochastic process excitations. Random ground acceleration from earthquake motion is adopted to illustrate the stochastic process force. The exact change ranges of natural frequencies, random vibration displacement and stress responses of structures are investigated under the interval analysis framework. Formulations for structural reliability are developed considering the safe boundary and structural random vibration responses as interval parameters. An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, namely randomised lower sequence initialized high-order nonlinear particle swarm optimization algorithm, is employed to capture the better bounds of structural dynamic characteristics, random vibration responses and reliability. Three numerical examples are used to demonstrate the presented method for interval random vibration analysis and reliability assessment of structures. The accuracy of the results obtained by the presented method is verified by the randomised Quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method (QMCSM) and direct Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM). - Highlights: • Interval uncertainty is introduced into structural random vibration responses. • Interval dynamic reliability assessments of structures are implemented. • Boundaries of structural dynamic response and reliability are achieved
Fast and reliable method for computing free-bound emission coefficients for hydrogenic ions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sarmiento, A; Canto, J
1985-12-01
An approximate formula for the computation of the free-bound emission coefficient for hydrogenic ions is presented. The approximation is obtained through a manipulation of the (free-bound) Gaunt factor which intentionally distinguish the dependence on frequency from the dependence on temperature and ionic composition. Numerical tests indicate that the derived formula is very precise, fast and easy to use, making the calculation of the free-bound contribution from an ionized region of varying temperature and ionic composition a very simple and time-saving task.
A fast and reliable method for computing free-bound emission coefficients for hydrogenic ions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sarmiento, A.; Canto, J.
1985-01-01
An approximate formula for the computation of the free-bound emission coefficient for hydrogenic ions is presented. The approximation is obtained through a manipulation of the (free-bound) Gaunt factor which intentionally distinguish the dependence on frequency from the dependence on temperature and ionic composition. Numerical tests indicate that the derived formula is very precise, fast and easy to use, making the calculation of the free-bound contribution from an ionized region of varying temperature and ionic composition a very simple and time-saving task. (author)
Schepens, Stacey; Goldberg, Allon; Wallace, Melissa
2010-01-01
A shortened version of the ABC 16-item scale (ABC-16), the ABC-6, has been proposed as an alternative balance confidence measure. We investigated whether the ABC-6 is a valid and reliable measure of balance confidence and examined its relationship to balance impairment and falls in older adults. Thirty-five community-dwelling older adults completed the ABC-16, including the 6 questions of the ABC-6. They also completed the following clinical balance tests: unipedal stance time (UST), functional reach (FR), Timed Up and Go (TUG), and maximum step length (MSL). Participants reported 12-month falls history. Balance confidence on the ABC-6 was significantly lower than on the ABC-16, however scores were highly correlated. Fallers reported lower balance confidence than non-fallers as measured by the ABC-6 scale, but confidence did not differ between the groups with the ABC-16. The ABC-6 significantly correlated with all balance tests assessed and number of falls. The ABC-16 significantly correlated with all balance tests assessed, but not with number of falls. Test-retest reliability for the ABC-16 and ABC-6 was good to excellent. The ABC-6 is a valid and reliable measure of balance confidence in community-dwelling older adults, and shows stronger relationships to falls than does the ABC-16. The ABC-6 may be a more useful balance confidence assessment tool than the ABC-16. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Exact reliability formula and bounds for general k-out-of-n systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koucky, Miroslav
2003-01-01
The paper deals with reliability of general k-out-of-n systems whose component failures need not be independent and identically distributed. The result is an exact closed form reliability formula which is based on Feller's result. The formula is efficient and easy to use for manual and computer computations. The approximations for the system reliability are given and are useful when dealing with large systems. Two examples illustrate the use of the results
Schepens, Stacey; Goldberg, Allon; Wallace, Melissa
2009-01-01
A shortened version of the ABC 16-item scale (ABC-16), the ABC-6, has been proposed as an alternative balance confidence measure. We investigated whether the ABC-6 is a valid and reliable measure of balance confidence and examined its relationship to balance impairment and falls in older adults. Thirty-five community-dwelling older adults completed the ABC-16, including the six questions of the ABC-6. They also completed the following clinical balance tests: unipedal stance time (UST), functi...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Ben Atkinson
1995-01-01
Full Text Available We consider the transient analysis of the M/G/1/0 queue, for which Pn(t denotes the probability that there are no customers in the system at time t, given that there are n(n=0,1 customers in the system at time 0. The analysis, which is based upon coupling theory, leads to simple bounds on Pn(t for the M/G/1/0 and M/PH/1/0 queues and improved bounds for the special case M/Er/1/0. Numerical results are presented for various values of the mean arrival rate λ to demonstrate the increasing accuracy of approximations based upon the above bounds in light traffic, i.e., as λ→0. An important area of application for the M/G/1/0 queue is as a reliability model for a single repairable component. Since most practical reliability problems have λ values that are small relative to the mean service rate, the approximations are potentially useful in that context. A duality relation between the M/G/1/0 and GI/M/1/0 queues is also described.
A reliable, delay bounded and less complex communication protocol for multicluster FANETs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wajiya Zafar
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Recently, Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs, enabling ad-hoc networking between Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs is gaining importance in several military and civilian applications. The sensitivity of the applications requires adaptive; efficient; delay bounded and scalable communication network among UAVs for data transmission. Due to communication protocol complexity; rigidity; cost of commercial-off-the-shelf (COT components; limited radio bandwidth; high mobility and computational resources; maintaining the desired level of Quality of Service (QoS becomes a daunting task. For the first time in this research we propose multicluster FANETs for efficient network management; the proposed scheme considerably reduces communication cost and optimizes network performance as well as exploit low power; less complex and low cost IEEE 802.15.4 (MAC protocol for intercluster and intracluster communication. In this research both beacon enabled mode and beaconless modes have been investigated with Guaranteed Time Slots (GTS and virtual Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA respectively. The methodology plays a key role towards reserving bandwidth for latency critical applications; eliminate collisions and medium access delays. Moreover analysis ad-hoc routing protocols including two proactive (OLSR, DSDV and one reactive (AODV is also presented. The results shows that the proposed scheme guarantees high packet delivery ratios while maintaining acceptable levels of latency requirements comparable with more complex and dedicatedly designed protocols in literature.
Unver, Vesile; Basak, Tulay; Watts, Penni; Gaioso, Vanessa; Moss, Jacqueline; Tastan, Sevinc; Iyigun, Emine; Tosun, Nuran
2017-02-01
The purpose of this study was to adapt the "Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale" (SCLS), "Simulation Design Scale" (SDS), and "Educational Practices Questionnaire" (EPQ) developed by Jeffries and Rizzolo into Turkish and establish the reliability and the validity of these translated scales. A sample of 87 nursing students participated in this study. These scales were cross-culturally adapted through a process including translation, comparison with original version, back translation, and pretesting. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis, and criterion validity was evaluated using the Perceived Learning Scale, Patient Intervention Self-confidence/Competency Scale, and Educational Belief Scale. Cronbach's alpha values were found as 0.77-0.85 for SCLS, 0.73-0.86 for SDS, and 0.61-0.86 for EPQ. The results of this study show that the Turkish versions of all scales are validated and reliable measurement tools.
Whittaker, B; Parry, R; Bird, L; Watson, S; Faull, C
2017-02-02
To develop, test and validate a versatile questionnaire, the East Midlands Evaluation Tool (EMET), for measuring effects of end of life care training events on trainees' self-reported confidence and competence. A paper-based questionnaire was designed on the basis of the English Department of Health's core competences for end of life care, with sections for completion pretraining, immediately post-training and also for longer term follow-up. Preliminary versions were field tested at 55 training events delivered by 13 organisations to 1793 trainees working in diverse health and social care backgrounds. Iterative rounds of development aimed to maximise relevance to events and trainees. Internal consistency was assessed by calculating interitem correlations on questionnaire responses during field testing. Content validity was assessed via qualitative content analysis of (1) responses to questionnaires completed by field tester trainers and (2) field notes from a workshop with a separate cohort of experienced trainers. Test-retest reliability was assessed via repeat administration to a cohort of student nurses. The EMET comprises 27 items with Likert-scaled responses supplemented with questions seeking free-text responses. It measures changes in self-assessed confidence and competence on 5 subscales: communication skills; assessment and care planning; symptom management; advance care planning; overarching values and knowledge. Test-retest reliability was found to be good, as was internal consistency: the questions successfully assess different aspects of the same underlying concept. The EMET provides a time-efficient, reliable and flexible means of evaluating effects of training on self-reported confidence and competence in the key elements of end of life care. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Schott, Nadja
2014-01-01
The Activities specific Balance Confidence (ABC) is a questionnaire which was developed to assess falls-associated self-efficacy. The aim of this study was to evaluate reliability and validity of the German abbreviated 6-item version of the ABC scores in community-dwelling older people. The study sample included 384 subjects (age 71.1 ± 9.7). In order to determine the psychometric properties, reliability and validity were assessed through administration of the German adaptation of the ABC-D16 to participants twice, 10 days apart, and comparison of the ABC-D16 and the ABC-D6 with functional measures of balance and mobility (one-leg stance; 10 m walk; TUG; Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale (FAB)), physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE)), physical fitness (30s arm curl, 30s chair stand, 6 min walk), cognition (Trail-Making-Test (TMT)), falls status, and quality of life (SF36). Factor analyses suggested a 1-factor solution for the ABC-D6 scale (explained variance 79.8%). Internal consistency (.95) and test-retest reliability (.98) for the ABC-D6 scores were excellent. Scores on the ABC-D6 were significantly lower than on the ABC-D16, but ABC-D16 and ABC-D6 scores were highly correlated (.94). There was an increasing difference in the ABC-scores between men and women with increasing age. Fallers reported lower balance confidence than non-fallers. The ABC-D6 score significantly correlated with functional measures of balance and mobility, physical activity, physical fitness, cognition, and quality of life (-.698valid instrument to asses falls-associated self-efficacy and may be used in future research projects and clinical trials. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Condon, David; Revelle, William
2017-01-01
Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khalili-Damghani, Kaveh; Amiri, Maghsoud
2012-01-01
In this paper, a procedure based on efficient epsilon-constraint method and data envelopment analysis (DEA) is proposed for solving binary-state multi-objective reliability redundancy allocation series-parallel problem (MORAP). In first module, a set of qualified non-dominated solutions on Pareto front of binary-state MORAP is generated using an efficient epsilon-constraint method. In order to test the quality of generated non-dominated solutions in this module, a multi-start partial bound enumeration algorithm is also proposed for MORAP. The performance of both procedures is compared using different metrics on well-known benchmark instance. The statistical analysis represents that not only the proposed efficient epsilon-constraint method outperform the multi-start partial bound enumeration algorithm but also it improves the founded upper bound of benchmark instance. Then, in second module, a DEA model is supplied to prune the generated non-dominated solutions of efficient epsilon-constraint method. This helps reduction of non-dominated solutions in a systematic manner and eases the decision making process for practical implementations. - Highlights: ► A procedure based on efficient epsilon-constraint method and DEA was proposed for solving MORAP. ► The performance of proposed procedure was compared with a multi-start PBEA. ► Methods were statistically compared using multi-objective metrics.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosenkrantz, A.B.; Kiritsy, M.; Kim, S.
2014-01-01
Aim: To evaluate the degree of variability in clinicians' interpretation of expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence within radiological reports. Materials and methods: Clinicians were solicited to complete a prospective survey asking them to select the approximate perceived level of certainty, expressed as a percentage, associated with 20 expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence within radiological reports. The median and inter-decile range (IDR) were computed for each expression, with a smaller IDR indicating greater reproducibility. Clinicians were also asked questions regarding their attitudes about radiologists' communication of diagnostic confidence. Results: Forty-nine surveys were completed. Median confidence associated with the expressions ranged from 10–90%. Reproducibility of the expressions was variable, as IDR ranged from 15–53%, although a median IDR of 40% indicated overall poor reproducibility. Expressions with relatively higher reproducibility included “most likely”, “likely”, and “unlikely” (IDR 15–20%), whereas expressions with relatively lower reproducibility included “compatible with”, “suspicious for”, “possibly,” and “can be seen in the setting of” (IDR ≥45%). Only 20% of clinicians agreed or strongly agreed that radiologists consistently use such expressions within their reports. Fifty-five percent of clinicians preferred that diagnostic confidence be communicated as a percentage rather than as a textual expression. Conclusion: There was poor reproducibility in clinicians' interpretations of many expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence. Use of percentages to convey diagnostic confidence within reports may mitigate this source of ambiguity in radiologists' communication with clinicians. - Highlights: • Clinicians recorded certainty associated with
Al-Obaidi, Saud; Wall, James C; Mulekar, Madhuri S; Al-Mutairie, Rebecca
2012-06-01
Low back pain (LBP) may challenge an individual's self-confidence to perform usual daily activities such as Islamic daily prayer. Existing self-efficacy scales may not be appropriate to assess individual's self-confidence to perform Islamic prayers. This study aimed to develop a scale to assess self-confidence to prepare and perform Islamic prayer in the presence of LBP, the Islamic Prayer-based Self-efficacy Scale (IpbSeS), and to determine its consistency. The IpbSeS consists of three parts: pre-prayer preparation, getting to and from the mosque, and positions and movements during prayer. On a scale of 0 to 6, 0 indicates 'not at all confident' and 6 'fully confident'. Sixty individuals with LBP gave their responses on two different visits. Pain intensity was assessed by the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and the pain intensity changes were assessed using a seven-point global patient rating scale. Descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficient, Wilcoxon test and t-test were used in the analysis (alpha set at 0.05). VAS scores did not differ significantly between visits. No association was found between VAS and age (r = 0.039, p = 0.77) and between VAS and body mass index (BMI; r = 0.06, p = 0. 67). All 28 questions have consistent responses on two visits (0.75 ≤ r ≤ 0.99, p Muslims in the presence of LBP to pray. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Using the confidence interval confidently.
Hazra, Avijit
2017-10-01
Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
叶宝娟; 温忠麟
2012-01-01
Reliability is very important in evaluating the quality of a test. Based on the confirmatory factor analysis, composite reliabili- ty is a good index to estimate the test reliability for general applications. As is well known, point estimate contains limited information a- bout a population parameter and cannot indicate how far it can be from the population parameter. The confidence interval of the parame- ter can provide more information. In evaluating the quality of a test, the confidence interval of composite reliability has received atten- tion in recent years. There are three approaches to estimating the confidence interval of composite reliability of an unidimensional test: the Bootstrap method, the Delta method, and the direct use of the standard error of a software output (e. g. , LISREL). The Bootstrap method pro- vides empirical results of the standard error, and is the most credible method. But it needs data simulation techniques, and its computa- tion process is rather complex. The Delta method computes the standard error of composite reliability by approximate calculation. It is simpler than the Bootstrap method. The LISREL software can directly prompt the standard error, and it is the easiest among the three methods. By simulation study, it had been found that the interval estimates obtained by the Delta method and the Bootstrap method were almost identical, whereas the results obtained by LISREL and by the Bootstrap method were substantially different ( Ye & Wen, 2011 ). The Delta method is recommended when the confidence interval of composite reliability of a unidimensional test is estimated, because the Delta method is simpler than the Bootstrap method. There was little research about how to compute the confidence interval of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. We de- duced a formula by using the Delta method for computing the standard error of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. Based on the standard error, the
Determining Normal-Distribution Tolerance Bounds Graphically
Mezzacappa, M. A.
1983-01-01
Graphical method requires calculations and table lookup. Distribution established from only three points: mean upper and lower confidence bounds and lower confidence bound of standard deviation. Method requires only few calculations with simple equations. Graphical procedure establishes best-fit line for measured data and bounds for selected confidence level and any distribution percentile.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew Watkins
2017-12-01
Full Text Available BackgroundAddressing the burden of poor physical health and the subsequent gap in life expectancy experienced by people with mental illness is a major priority in mental health services. To equip mental health staff with the competence to deliver evidence-based interventions, targeted staff training regarding metabolic health is required. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of staff training regarding metabolic health, we aimed to develop a succinct measure to determine the barriers, attitudes, confidence, and knowledge of health practitioners through the development and test–retest reliability of the Metabolic-Barriers, Attitudes, Confidence, and Knowledge Questionnaire (M-BACK.MethodsThe M-BACK questionnaire was developed to evaluate the impact of specialized training in metabolic health care for mental health nurses. Content of the M-BACK was developed from a literature review and refined by an expert review panel and validated via a piloting process. To determine the test–retest reliability of the M-BACK, 31 nursing students recruited from the University of Notre Dame, Sydney completed the questionnaire on two separate occasions, 7 days apart. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs were calculated for the total score, as well as each of the four domains.ResultsPilot testing was undertaken with a sample of 106 mental health nurses with a mean age 48.2, ranging from 24 to 63 years of age, who participated in six training courses. Questionnaire development resulted in a 16-item instrument, with each item is scored on a five-point Likert scale ranging from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree.” Test–retest reliability of the M-BACK was completed by 30 of 31 nursing students recruited, ICCs ranged from 0.62 to 0.96.ConclusionThe M-BACK is a reliable measure of the key elements of practitioner perceptions of barriers, and their knowledge, attitudes, and confidence regarding metabolic monitoring in people with mental
African Journals Online (AJOL)
eobe
Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...
Methodology for building confidence measures
Bramson, Aaron L.
2004-04-01
This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jenny Isaacs
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.
Pareto upper confidence bounds algorithms : an empirical study
Drugan, M.M.; Nowé, A.; Manderick, B.
2014-01-01
Many real-world stochastic environments are inherently multi-objective environments with conflicting objectives. The multi-objective multi-armed bandits (MOMAB) are extensions of the classical, i.e. single objective, multi-armed bandits to reward vectors and multi-objective optimisation techniques
... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...
Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2009-06-01
independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data
Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
2008-12-15
independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.
The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thoft-Christensen, Palle
1989-01-01
In the paper it is shown how upper and lower bounds for the reliability of plastic slabs can be determined. For the fundamental case it is shown that optimal bounds of a deterministic and a stochastic analysis are obtained on the basis of the same failure mechanisms and the same stress fields....
Reclaim your creative confidence.
Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David
2012-12-01
Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.
Confidence in Numerical Simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hemez, Francois M.
2015-01-01
This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borloo, J.L.
2007-01-01
After a presentation of the new situation of the energy sector with the opening of European energy markets to competition, the author recalls the role of the French government in the organisation and operation of this market: reliable information and protection of consumers, security of supplies with reasonable gas prices, sound relations and partnerships with producing and transit countries. France agrees with the diagnostic of the European Commission about the necessity to improve the operation of the domestic energy markets but differs with the projects of the Commission on the means to be implemented to ensure transparency, non-discrimination, and efficiency in the operation of these markets. (J.S.)
Globalization of consumer confidence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Çelik Sadullah
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and postcrisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.
Confidence in Numerical Simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-02-23
This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.
Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V
2014-01-01
Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by
Mohri, Mehryar; Rostamizadeh, Afshin
2013-01-01
We present a brief survey of existing mistake bounds and introduce novel bounds for the Perceptron or the kernel Perceptron algorithm. Our novel bounds generalize beyond standard margin-loss type bounds, allow for any convex and Lipschitz loss function, and admit a very simple proof.
Pocket Handbook on Reliability
1975-09-01
exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future
Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl
While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...
Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2008-09-01
The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre
Finding upper bounds for software failure probabilities - experiments and results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kristiansen, Monica; Winther, Rune
2005-09-01
This report looks into some aspects of using Bayesian hypothesis testing to find upper bounds for software failure probabilities. In the first part, the report evaluates the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach for finding upper bounds for failure probabilities of single software components. The report shows how different choices of prior probability distributions for a software component's failure probability influence the number of tests required to obtain adequate confidence in a software component. In the evaluation, both the effect of the shape of the prior distribution as well as one's prior confidence in the software component were investigated. In addition, different choices of prior probability distributions are discussed based on their relevance in a software context. In the second part, ideas on how the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach can be extended to assess systems consisting of multiple software components are given. One of the main challenges when assessing systems consisting of multiple software components is to include dependency aspects in the software reliability models. However, different types of failure dependencies between software components must be modelled differently. Identifying different types of failure dependencies are therefore an important condition for choosing a prior probability distribution, which correctly reflects one's prior belief in the probability for software components failing dependently. In this report, software components include both general in-house software components, as well as pre-developed software components (e.g. COTS, SOUP, etc). (Author)
Circuit lower bounds in bounded arithmetics
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Pich, Ján
2015-01-01
Roč. 166, č. 1 (2015), s. 29-45 ISSN 0168-0072 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100190902 Keywords : bounded arithmetic * circuit lower bounds Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.582, year: 2015 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168007214000888
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong
1993-08-01
This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.
The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.
Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador
2017-11-01
Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.
Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.
Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney
2012-06-01
On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tezuka, Hirokazu.
1984-10-01
Scattering of a particle by bound nucleons is discussed. Effects of nucleons that are bound in a nucleus are taken as a structure function. The way how to calculate the structure function is given. (author)
Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions
Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano
2014-01-01
Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments
Diverse interpretations of confidence building
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Macintosh, J.
1998-01-01
This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)
Structural systems reliability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frangopol, D.
1975-01-01
For an exact evaluation of the reliability of a structure it appears necessary to determine the distribution densities of the loads and resistances and to calculate the correlation coefficients between loads and between resistances. These statistical characteristics can be obtained only on the basis of a long activity period. In case that such studies are missing the statistical properties formulated here give upper and lower bounds of the reliability. (orig./HP) [de
Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-03-19
This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.
Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.
Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew
2015-01-01
with a newfound respect for their suppliers, and it will allow manufacturers to finally address true root causes that can lead to a marked increase in product confidence. In the past decade, pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers have increased their focus on controlling and managing the performance of their suppliers in an effort to improve the confidence of the materials going into the final marketed products and to improve patient and customer confidence in final product reliability and safety. Concerned that product confidence has not improved, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials. Through this initiative, data generated has revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. Product confidence can be improved by shifting the focus from controlling supplier practices to controlling the practices of the manufacturers themselves. © PDA, Inc. 2015.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Inoue, J.; Ohtaka, K.
2004-01-01
We study virtual bound states in photonics, which are a vectorial extension of electron virtual bound states. The condition for these states is derived. It is found that the Mie resonant state which satisfies the condition that the size parameter is less than the angular momentum should be interpreted as a photon virtual bound state. In order to confirm the validity of the concept, we compare the photonic density of states, the width of which represents the lifetime of the photon virtual bound states, with numerical results
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Emiris, Ioannis Z.; Mourrain, Bernard; Tsigaridas, Elias
2010-01-01
) resultant by means of mixed volume, as well as recent advances on aggregate root bounds for univariate polynomials, and are applicable to arbitrary positive dimensional systems. We improve upon Canny's gap theorem [7] by a factor of O(dn-1), where d bounds the degree of the polynomials, and n is the number...... bound on the number of steps that subdivision-based algorithms perform in order to isolate all real roots of a polynomial system. This leads to the first complexity bound of Milne's algorithm [22] in 2D....
Reliability and safety engineering
Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao
2016-01-01
Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...
Nuclear power: restoring public confidence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arnold, L.
1986-01-01
The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)
Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mirjana Čižmešija
2016-04-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.
Bounded Gaussian process regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Larsen, Jan
2013-01-01
We extend the Gaussian process (GP) framework for bounded regression by introducing two bounded likelihood functions that model the noise on the dependent variable explicitly. This is fundamentally different from the implicit noise assumption in the previously suggested warped GP framework. We...... with the proposed explicit noise-model extension....
Bounded Intention Planning Revisited
Sievers Silvan; Wehrle Martin; Helmert Malte
2014-01-01
Bounded intention planning provides a pruning technique for optimal planning that has been proposed several years ago. In addition partial order reduction techniques based on stubborn sets have recently been investigated for this purpose. In this paper we revisit bounded intention planning in the view of stubborn sets.
Bounding species distribution models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].
Bounding Species Distribution Models
Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.
2011-01-01
Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].
2017 NREL Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-08-15
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology -- both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Confidence in critical care nursing.
Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M
2010-10-01
The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.
Professional confidence: a concept analysis.
Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana
2012-03-01
Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Sang Yong
1992-07-01
This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.
Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale
McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven
2006-01-01
The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diabate, S.; Strack, S.
1993-01-01
Tritium released into the environment may be incorporated into organic matter. Organically bound tritium in that case will show retention times in organisms that are considerably longer than those of tritiated water which has significant consequences on dose estimates. This article reviews the most important processes of organically bound tritium production and transport through food networks. Metabolic reactions in plant and animal organisms with tritiated water as a reaction partner are of great importance in this respect. The most important production process, in quantitative terms, is photosynthesis in green plants. The translocation of organically bound tritium from the leaves to edible parts of crop plants should be considered in models of organically bound tritium behavior. Organically bound tritium enters the human body on several pathways, either from the primary producers (vegetable food) or at a higher tropic level (animal food). Animal experiments have shown that the dose due to ingestion of organically bound tritium can be up to twice as high as a comparable intake of tritiated water in gaseous or liquid form. In the environment, organically bound tritium in plants and animals is often found to have higher specific tritium concentrations than tissue water. This is not due to some tritium enrichment effects but to the fact that no equilibrium conditions are reached under natural conditions. 66 refs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toki, Hiroshi; Yamazaki, Toshimitsu
1989-01-01
The standard method of pionic atom formation does not produce deeply bound pionic atoms. A study is made on the properties of deeply bound pionic atom states by using the standard pion-nucleus optical potential. Another study is made to estimate the cross sections of the formation of ls pionic atom states by various methods. The pion-nucleus optical potential is determined by weakly bound pionic atom states and pion nucleus scattering. Although this potential may not be valid for deeply bound pionic atoms, it should provide some hint on binding energies and level widths of deeply bound states. The width of the ls state comes out to be 0.3 MeV and is well separated from the rest. The charge dependence of the ls state is investigated. The binding energies and the widths increase linearly with Z azbove a Z of 30. The report then discusses various methods to populate deeply bound pionic atoms. In particular, 'pion exchange' reactions are proposed. (n, pπ) reaction is discussed first. The cross section is calculated by assuming the in- and out-going nucleons on-shell and the produced pion in (n1) pionic atom states. Then, (n, dπ - ) cross sections are estimated. (p, 2 Heπ - ) reaction would have cross sections similar to the cross section of (n, dπ - ) reaction. In conclusion, it seems best to do (n, p) experiment on heavy nuclei for deeply bound pionic atom. (Nogami, K.)
Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals
Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2014-01-01
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more
Bounded Rationality and Budgeting
Ibrahim, Mukdad
2016-01-01
This article discusses the theory of bounded rationality which had been introduced by Herbert Simon in the 1950s. Simon introduced the notion of bounded rationality stating that while decision-makers strive for rationality, they are limited by the effect of the environment, their information process capacity and by the constraints on their information storage and retrieval capabilities. Moreover, this article tries to specifically blend this notion into budgeting, using the foundations of inc...
Observational Bounds on Cosmic Doomsday
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shmakova, Marina
2003-07-11
Recently it was found, in a broad class of models, that the dark energy density may change its sign during the evolution of the universe. This may lead to a global collapse of the universe within the time t{sub c} {approx} 10{sup 10}-10{sup 11} years. Our goal is to find what bounds on the future lifetime of the universe can be placed by the next generation of cosmological observations. As an example, we investigate the simplest model of dark energy with a linear potential V({phi}) = V{sub 0}(1 + {alpha}{phi}). This model can describe the present stage of acceleration of the universe if {alpha} is small enough. However, eventually the field {phi} rolls down, V({phi}) becomes negative, and the universe collapses. The existing observational data indicate that the universe described by this model will collapse not earlier than t{sub c} {approx_equal} 10 billion years from the present moment. We show that the data from SNAP and Planck satellites may extend the bound on the ''doomsday'' time to tc 40 billion years at the 95% confidence level.
Tate, Stephen James
2013-10-01
In the 1960s, the technique of using cluster expansion bounds in order to achieve bounds on the virial expansion was developed by Lebowitz and Penrose (J. Math. Phys. 5:841, 1964) and Ruelle (Statistical Mechanics: Rigorous Results. Benjamin, Elmsford, 1969). This technique is generalised to more recent cluster expansion bounds by Poghosyan and Ueltschi (J. Math. Phys. 50:053509, 2009), which are related to the work of Procacci (J. Stat. Phys. 129:171, 2007) and the tree-graph identity, detailed by Brydges (Phénomènes Critiques, Systèmes Aléatoires, Théories de Jauge. Les Houches 1984, pp. 129-183, 1986). The bounds achieved by Lebowitz and Penrose can also be sharpened by doing the actual optimisation and achieving expressions in terms of the Lambert W-function. The different bound from the cluster expansion shows some improvements for bounds on the convergence of the virial expansion in the case of positive potentials, which are allowed to have a hard core.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Orzalesi, C.A.
1979-01-01
In relativistic quantum theory, bound states generate forces in the crossed channel; such forces can affect the binding and self-consistent solutions should be sought for the bound-state problem. The author investigates how self-consistency can be achieved by successive approximations, in a simple scalar model and with successive relativistic eikonal approximations (EAs). Within the generalized ladder approximation, some exact properties of the resulting ''first generation'' bound states are discussed. The binding energies in this approximation are rather small even for rather large values of the primary coupling constant. The coupling of the constituent particles to the first-generation reggeon is determined by a suitable EA and a new generalized ladder amplitude is constructed with rungs given either by the primary gluons or by the first-generation reggeons. The resulting new (second-generation) bound states are found in a reggeized EA. The size of the corrections to the binding energies due to the rebinding effects is surprisingly large. The procedure is then iterated, so as to find - again in an EA - the third-generation bound states. The procedure is found to be self-consistent already at this stage: the third-generation bound states coincide with those of second generation, and no further rebinding takes place in the higher iterations of the approximation method. Features - good and bad - of the model are discussed, as well as the possible relevance of rebinding mechanisms in hadron dynamics. (author)
A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions
Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.
1982-01-01
One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.
Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance
Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan
2016-01-01
A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739
Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edwin Le Heron
2006-12-01
Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.
Reliability and mechanical design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lemaire, Maurice
1997-01-01
A lot of results in mechanical design are obtained from a modelisation of physical reality and from a numerical solution which would lead to the evaluation of needs and resources. The goal of the reliability analysis is to evaluate the confidence which it is possible to grant to the chosen design through the calculation of a probability of failure linked to the retained scenario. Two types of analysis are proposed: the sensitivity analysis and the reliability analysis. Approximate methods are applicable to problems related to reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS)
Measures of differences in reliability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doksum, K.A.
1975-01-01
Measures of differences in reliability of two systems are considered in the scale model, location-scale model, and a nonparametric model. In each model, estimates and confidence intervals are given and some of their properties discussed
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Faust, Sebastian; Mukherjee, Pratyay
2013-01-01
Related key attacks (RKAs) are powerful cryptanalytic attacks where an adversary can change the secret key and observe the effect of such changes at the output. The state of the art in RKA security protects against an a-priori unbounded number of certain algebraic induced key relations, e.......g., affine functions or polynomials of bounded degree. In this work, we show that it is possible to go beyond the algebraic barrier and achieve security against arbitrary key relations, by restricting the number of tampering queries the adversary is allowed to ask for. The latter restriction is necessary......-protocols (including the Okamoto scheme, for instance) are secure even if the adversary can arbitrarily tamper with the prover’s state a bounded number of times and obtain some bounded amount of leakage. Interestingly, for the Okamoto scheme we can allow also independent tampering with the public parameters. We show...
Massive Galileon positivity bounds
de Rham, Claudia; Melville, Scott; Tolley, Andrew J.; Zhou, Shuang-Yong
2017-09-01
The EFT coefficients in any gapped, scalar, Lorentz invariant field theory must satisfy positivity requirements if there is to exist a local, analytic Wilsonian UV completion. We apply these bounds to the tree level scattering amplitudes for a massive Galileon. The addition of a mass term, which does not spoil the non-renormalization theorem of the Galileon and preserves the Galileon symmetry at loop level, is necessary to satisfy the lowest order positivity bound. We further show that a careful choice of successively higher derivative corrections are necessary to satisfy the higher order positivity bounds. There is then no obstruction to a local UV completion from considerations of tree level 2-to-2 scattering alone. To demonstrate this we give an explicit example of such a UV completion.
Leadership by Confidence in Teams
Kobayashi, Hajime; Suehiro, Hideo
2008-01-01
We study endogenous signaling by analyzing a team production problem with endogenous timing. Each agent of the team is privately endowed with some level of confidence about team productivity. Each of them must then commit a level of effort in one of two periods. At the end of each period, each agent observes his partner' s move in this period. Both agents are rewarded by a team output determined by team productivity and total invested effort. Each agent must personally incur the cost of effor...
Towards confidence in transport safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Robison, R.W.
1992-01-01
The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) plans to demonstrate to the public that high-level waste can be transported safely to the proposed repository. The author argues US DOE should begin now to demonstrate its commitment to safety by developing an extraordinary safety program for nuclear cargo it is now shipping. The program for current shipments should be developed with State, Tribal, and local officials. Social scientists should be involved in evaluating the effect of the safety program on public confidence. The safety program developed in cooperation with western states for shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot plant is a good basis for designing that extraordinary safety program
Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.
2000-01-01
The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)
The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership
Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison
2013-01-01
Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.
Appell, Jürgen; Merentes Díaz, Nelson José
2013-01-01
This monographis a self-contained exposition of the definition and properties of functionsof bounded variation and their various generalizations; the analytical properties of nonlinear composition operators in spaces of such functions; applications to Fourier analysis, nonlinear integral equations, and boundary value problems. The book is written for non-specialists. Every chapter closes with a list of exercises and open problems.
Public confidence and nuclear energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chaussade, J.P.
1990-01-01
Today in France there are 54 nuclear power units in operation at 18 sites. They supply 75% of all electricity produced, 12% of which is exported to neighbouring countries, and play an important role in the French economy. For the French, nuclear power is a fact of life, and most accept it. However, the accident of Chernobyl has made public opinion more sensitive, and the public relations work has had to be reconsidered carefully with a view to increase the confidence of the French public in nuclear power, anticipating media crises and being equipped to deal with such crises. The three main approaches are the following: keeping the public better informed, providing clear information at time of crisis and international activities
Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette
. Results The students identified their major learning outcomes as transfer of operational skills, experiencing self-efficacy and enhanced understanding of the patients' perspective.Involving simulated patients in the training of technical skills contributed to the development of the students' communication......Knowledge, self confidence and courage – long lasting learning outcomes through simulation in a clinical context. Hanne Selberg1, Jette Hovedskov2, Jette Steenberg Holtzmann2 The significance and methodology of the researchThe study focuses on simulation alongside the clinical practice and linked...... Development, Clinical Lecturer, Metropolitan University College, Faculty of Nursing, Email: hase@phoe.dk, phone: +45-72282830. 2. Jette Hovedskov, RN, Development Consultant, Glostrup University Hospital, Department of Development Email : jeho@glo.regionh.dk ,phone: +45- 43232090 3. Jette Holtzmann Steenberg...
Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.
Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E
2015-10-01
Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.
Kahneman, Daniel
2002-01-01
The work cited by the Nobel committee was done jointly with the late Amos Tversky (1937-1996) during a long and unusually close collaboration. Together, we explored the psychology of intuitive beliefs and choices and examined their bounded rationality. This essay presents a current perspective on the three major topics of our joint work: heuristics of judgment, risky choice, and framing effects. In all three domains we studied intuitions - thoughts and preferences that come to mind quickly an...
Bounded Satisfiability for PCTL
Bertrand, Nathalie; Fearnley, John; Schewe, Sven
2012-01-01
While model checking PCTL for Markov chains is decidable in polynomial-time, the decidability of PCTL satisfiability, as well as its finite model property, are long standing open problems. While general satisfiability is an intriguing challenge from a purely theoretical point of view, we argue that general solutions would not be of interest to practitioners: such solutions could be too big to be implementable or even infinite. Inspired by bounded synthesis techniques, we turn to the more appl...
Confidence building in safety assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grundfelt, Bertil
1999-01-01
Future generations should be adequately protected from damage caused by the present disposal of radioactive waste. This presentation discusses the core of safety and performance assessment: The demonstration and building of confidence that the disposal system meets the safety requirements stipulated by society. The major difficulty is to deal with risks in the very long time perspective of the thousands of years during which the waste is hazardous. Concern about these problems has stimulated the development of the safety assessment discipline. The presentation concentrates on two of the elements of safety assessment: (1) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and (2) validation and review. Uncertainty is associated both with respect to what is the proper conceptual model and with respect to parameter values for a given model. A special kind of uncertainty derives from the variation of a property in space. Geostatistics is one approach to handling spatial variability. The simplest way of doing a sensitivity analysis is to offset the model parameters one by one and observe how the model output changes. The validity of the models and data used to make predictions is central to the credibility of safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. There are several definitions of model validation. The presentation discusses it as a process and highlights some aspects of validation methodologies
Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.
Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2014-10-01
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.
Computing Confidence Bounds for Power and Sample Size of the General Linear Univariate Model
Taylor, Douglas J.; Muller, Keith E.
1995-01-01
The power of a test, the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis in favor of an alternative, may be computed using estimates of one or more distributional parameters. Statisticians frequently fix mean values and calculate power or sample size using a variance estimate from an existing study. Hence computed power becomes a random variable for a fixed sample size. Likewise, the sample size necessary to achieve a fixed power varies randomly. Standard statistical practice requires reporting ...
Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2017-09-28
Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the ^{235}U(n, f) and ^{239}Pu (n, f) cross sections.
Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.
2002-01-01
We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere
Bendell, A
1986-01-01
Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo
Universal bounds on current fluctuations.
Pietzonka, Patrick; Barato, Andre C; Seifert, Udo
2016-05-01
For current fluctuations in nonequilibrium steady states of Markovian processes, we derive four different universal bounds valid beyond the Gaussian regime. Different variants of these bounds apply to either the entropy change or any individual current, e.g., the rate of substrate consumption in a chemical reaction or the electron current in an electronic device. The bounds vary with respect to their degree of universality and tightness. A universal parabolic bound on the generating function of an arbitrary current depends solely on the average entropy production. A second, stronger bound requires knowledge both of the thermodynamic forces that drive the system and of the topology of the network of states. These two bounds are conjectures based on extensive numerics. An exponential bound that depends only on the average entropy production and the average number of transitions per time is rigorously proved. This bound has no obvious relation to the parabolic bound but it is typically tighter further away from equilibrium. An asymptotic bound that depends on the specific transition rates and becomes tight for large fluctuations is also derived. This bound allows for the prediction of the asymptotic growth of the generating function. Even though our results are restricted to networks with a finite number of states, we show that the parabolic bound is also valid for three paradigmatic examples of driven diffusive systems for which the generating function can be calculated using the additivity principle. Our bounds provide a general class of constraints for nonequilibrium systems.
Overcoming some limitations of imprecise reliability models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor
2011-01-01
The application of imprecise reliability models is often hindered by the rapid growth in imprecision that occurs when many components constitute a system and by the fact that time to failure is bounded from above. The latter results in the necessity to explicitly introduce an upper bound on time ...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Maldacena, Juan [School of Natural Sciences, Institute for Advanced Study,1 Einstein Drive, Princeton, NJ (United States); Shenker, Stephen H. [Stanford Institute for Theoretical Physics and Department of Physics, Stanford University,382 Via Pueblo Mall, Stanford, CA (United States); Stanford, Douglas [School of Natural Sciences, Institute for Advanced Study,1 Einstein Drive, Princeton, NJ (United States)
2016-08-17
We conjecture a sharp bound on the rate of growth of chaos in thermal quantum systems with a large number of degrees of freedom. Chaos can be diagnosed using an out-of-time-order correlation function closely related to the commutator of operators separated in time. We conjecture that the influence of chaos on this correlator can develop no faster than exponentially, with Lyapunov exponent λ{sub L}≤2πk{sub B}T/ℏ. We give a precise mathematical argument, based on plausible physical assumptions, establishing this conjecture.
Operational safety system reliability. Progress report, November 15, 1975--May 14, 1976
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hockenbury, R.W.; Yeater, M.L.
1976-05-01
The report describes the objectives and present status of a study concerning the operational reliability of nuclear power plants. The purpose of the study is to develop utilitarian models for use with the Liquid-Metal-Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor; initial testing of the formalism can be carried out with LWR operational data. Methods are being directed towards (1) day-to-day operation of the nuclear plant protection system and (2) to better understand the protection system sensor characteristics in order to anticipate off-normal conditions. The initial models now underway are based on moment-matching, confidence bounding, and convolution methods in the case of the protection system reliability, and for the sensor response function, a convolution of component reliability probability distributions and noise signatures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Embrey, D.E.
1987-01-01
Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Kurt Erling
1986-01-01
Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...
High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs
Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...
Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.
Achilles, C. M.; And Others
1985-01-01
Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)
2015 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshops
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-09-14
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
2016 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-09-07
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ritchie, Burke
2006-01-01
The Hamiltonian for Dirac's second-order equation depends nonlinearly on the potential V and the energy E. For this reason the magnetic contribution to the Hamiltonian for s-waves, which has a short range, is attractive for a repulsive Coulomb potential (V>0) and repulsive for an attractive Coulomb potential (V 2 . Usually solutions are found in the regime E=mc 2 +ε , where except for high Z, ε 2 . Here it is shown that for V>0 the attractive magnetic term and the linear repulsive term combine to support a bound state near E=0.5mc 2 corresponding to a binding energy E b =-ε =0.5mc 2
Numerical differences between Guttman's reliability coefficients and the GLB
Oosterwijk, P.R.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.; van der Ark, L.A.; Bolt, D.M; Wang, W.-C.; Douglas, J.A.; Wiberg, M.
2016-01-01
For samples smaller than 1000 and tests longer than ten items, the greatest lower bound (GLB) to the reliability is known to be biased and not recommended as a method to estimate test-score reliability. As a first step in finding alternative lower bounds under these conditions, we investigated the
The confidence in diabetes self-care scale
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Van Der Ven, Nicole C W; Weinger, Katie; Yi, Joyce
2003-01-01
evaluated in Dutch (n = 151) and U.S. (n = 190) outpatients with type 1 diabetes. In addition to the CIDS scale, assessment included HbA(1c), emotional distress, fear of hypoglycemia, self-esteem, anxiety, depression, and self-care behavior. The Dutch sample completed additional measures on perceived burden......OBJECTIVE: To examine psychometric properties of the Confidence in Diabetes Self-Care (CIDS) scale, a newly developed instrument assessing diabetes-specific self-efficacy in Dutch and U.S. patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Reliability and validity of the CIDS scale were...... and importance of self-care. Test-retest reliability was established in a second Dutch sample (n = 62). RESULTS: Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86 for Dutch patients and 0.90 U.S. patients) and test-retest reliability (Spearman's r = 0.85, P
Lazzaroni, Massimo
2012-01-01
This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be
Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.
1992-01-01
Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.
Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence
Bounding approaches to system identification
Norton, John; Piet-Lahanier, Hélène; Walter, Éric
1996-01-01
In response to the growing interest in bounding error approaches, the editors of this volume offer the first collection of papers to describe advances in techniques and applications of bounding of the parameters, or state variables, of uncertain dynamical systems. Contributors explore the application of the bounding approach as an alternative to the probabilistic analysis of such systems, relating its importance to robust control-system design.
Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu Xueping
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence
Market access through bound tariffs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sala, Davide; Yalcin, Erdal; Schröder, Philipp
2010-01-01
on the risk that exporters face in destination markets. The present paper formalizes the underlying interaction of risk, fixed export costs and firms' market entry decisions based on techniques known from the real options literature; doing so we highlight the important role of bound tariffs at the extensive...... margin of trade. We find that bound tariffs are more effective with higher risk destination markets, that a large binding overhang may still command substantial market access, and that reductions in bound tariffs generate effective market access even when bound rates are above current and longterm...
Market Access through Bound Tariffs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sala, Davide; Schröder, Philipp J.H.; Yalcin, Erdal
on the risk that exporters face in destination markets. The present paper formalizes the underlying interaction of risk, fixed export costs and firms' market entry decisions based on techniques known from the real options literature; doing so we highlight the important role of bound tariffs at the extensive...... margin of trade. We find that bound tariffs are more effective with higher risk destination markets, that a large binding overhang may still command substantial market access, and that reductions in bound tariffs generate effective market access even when bound rates are above current and long...
Quivers of Bound Path Algebras and Bound Path Coalgebras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dr. Intan Muchtadi
2010-09-01
Full Text Available bras and coalgebras can be represented as quiver (directed graph, and from quiver we can construct algebras and coalgebras called path algebras and path coalgebras. In this paper we show that the quiver of a bound path coalgebra (resp. algebra is the dual quiver of its bound path algebra (resp. coalgebra.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Petersen, K.E.
1986-03-01
Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)
Systems reliability/structural reliability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Green, A.E.
1980-01-01
The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)
Bounds for Asian basket options
Deelstra, Griselda; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vanmaele, Michèle
2008-09-01
In this paper we propose pricing bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework. We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach for deriving upper and lower bounds for stop-loss premia of sums of non-independent random variables as in Kaas et al. [Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables, Insurance Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151-168] or Dhaene et al. [The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory, Insurance Math. Econom. 31(1) (2002) 3-33]. We generalize the methods in Deelstra et al. [Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning, Insurance Math. Econom. 34 (2004) 55-57] and Vanmaele et al. [Bounds for the price of discrete sampled arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 185(1) (2006) 51-90]. Afterwards we show how to derive an analytical closed-form expression for a lower bound in the non-comonotonic case. Finally, we derive upper bounds for Asian basket options by applying techniques as in Thompson [Fast narrow bounds on the value of Asian options, Working Paper, University of Cambridge, 1999] and Lord [Partially exact and bounded approximations for arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Finance 10 (2) (2006) 1-52]. Numerical results are included and on the basis of our numerical tests, we explain which method we recommend depending on moneyness and time-to-maturity.
Product differentiation under bounded rationality
Vermeulen, B.; Poutré, La J.A.; Kok, de A.G.; Pyka, A.; Handa, H.; Ishibuchi, H.; Ong, Y.-S.; Tan, K.-C.
2015-01-01
We study product differentiation equilibria and dynamics on the Salop circle under bounded rationality. Due to bounded rationality, firms tend to agglomerate in pairs. Upon adding a second tier of component suppliers, downstream assemblers may escape pairwise horizontal agglomeration. Moreover, we
Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict
Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe
2016-01-01
As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…
Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Oshins
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.
Consumer confidence or the business cycle
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper
2014-01-01
Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...
Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking
Kramer, Marc M.
2016-01-01
We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.
Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...
Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition
Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail
2018-01-01
We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…
Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence
Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten
2009-01-01
A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.
Metabolism of organically bound tritium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Travis, C.C.
1984-01-01
The classic methodology for estimating dose to man from environmental tritium ignores the fact that organically bound tritium in foodstuffs may be directly assimilated in the bound compartment of tissues without previous oxidation. We propose a four-compartment model consisting of a free body water compartment, two organic compartments, and a small, rapidly metabolizing compartment. The utility of this model lies in the ability to input organically bound tritium in foodstuffs directly into the organic compartments of the model. We found that organically bound tritium in foodstuffs can increase cumulative total body dose by a factor of 1.7 to 4.5 times the free body water dose alone, depending on the bound-to-loose ratio of tritium in the diet. Model predictions are compared with empirical measurements of tritium in human urine and tissue samples, and appear to be in close agreement. 10 references, 4 figures, 3 tables
Self-confidence and metacognitive processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kleitman Sabina
2005-01-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bubb, H.
1992-01-01
This book resulted from the activity of Task Force 4.2 - 'Human Reliability'. This group was established on February 27th, 1986, at the plenary meeting of the Technical Reliability Committee of VDI, within the framework of the joint committee of VDI on industrial systems technology - GIS. It is composed of representatives of industry, representatives of research institutes, of technical control boards and universities, whose job it is to study how man fits into the technical side of the world of work and to optimize this interaction. In a total of 17 sessions, information from the part of ergonomy dealing with human reliability in using technical systems at work was exchanged, and different methods for its evaluation were examined and analyzed. The outcome of this work was systematized and compiled in this book. (orig.) [de
2017-01-17
inverters connected in a chain. ................................................. 5 Figure 3 Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the lifetime reliability of advanced devices, circuits and...or FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device lifetime was found and thus the reliability that can be conveniently
A general model of confidence building: analysis and implications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kilgour, D.M.
1998-01-01
For more than two decades, security approaches in Europe have included confidence building. Many have argued that Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS) played an essential role in the enormous transformations that took place there. Thus, it is hardly,surprising that CBMs have been proposed as measures to reduce tensions and transform security relationships elsewhere in the world. The move toward wider application of CBMs has strengthened recently, as conventional military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches seem to have failed to address problems associated with peace-building and peace support operations. There is, however, a serious problem. We don't really know why, or even how, CBMs work. Consequently, we have no reliable way to design CBMs that would be appropriate in substance, form, and timing for regions culturally, geographically, and militarily different from Europe. Lacking a solid understanding of confidence building, we are handicapped in our efforts to extend its successes to the domain of peace building and peace support. To paraphrase Macintosh, if we don't know how CBMs succeeded in the past, then we are unlikely to be good at maintaining, improving, or extending them. The specific aim of this project is to step into this gap, using the methods of game theory to clarify some aspects of the underlying logic of confidence building. Formal decision models will be shown to contribute new and valuable insights that will assist in the design of CBMs to contribute to new problems and in new arenas. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Collins, A.L.; Williams, L.J.; Zhang, Y.S.; Marius, M.; Dungait, J.A.J.; Smallman, D.J.; Dixon, E.R.; Stringfellow, A.; Sear, D.A.; Jones, J.I.; Naden, P.S.
2013-01-01
The ingress of particulate material into freshwater spawning substrates is thought to be contributing to the declining success of salmonids reported over recent years for many rivers. Accordingly, the need for reliable information on the key sources of the sediment problem has progressed up the management agenda. Whilst previous work has focussed on apportioning the sources of minerogenic fine sediment degrading spawning habitats, there remains a need to develop procedures for generating corresponding information for the potentially harmful sediment-bound organic matter that represents an overlooked component of interstitial sediment. A source tracing procedure based on composite signatures combining bulk stable 13 C and 15 N isotope values with organic molecular structures detected using near infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy was therefore used to assess the primary sources of sediment-bound organic matter sampled from artificial spawning redds. Composite signatures were selected using a combination of the Kruskal–Wallis H-test, principal component analysis and GA-driven discriminant function analysis. Interstitial sediment samples were collected using time-integrating basket traps which were inserted at the start of the salmonid spawning season and extracted in conjunction with critical phases of fish development (eyeing, hatch, emergence, late spawning). Over the duration of these four basket extractions, the overall relative frequency-weighted average median (± 95% confidence limits) source contributions to the interstitial sediment-bound organic matter were estimated to be in the order: instream decaying vegetation (39 ± road verges > septic tanks > farm manures
Kodiak: An Implementation Framework for Branch and Bound Algorithms
Smith, Andrew P.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Markevicius, Mantas
2015-01-01
Recursive branch and bound algorithms are often used to refine and isolate solutions to several classes of global optimization problems. A rigorous computation framework for the solution of systems of equations and inequalities involving nonlinear real arithmetic over hyper-rectangular variable and parameter domains is presented. It is derived from a generic branch and bound algorithm that has been formally verified, and utilizes self-validating enclosure methods, namely interval arithmetic and, for polynomials and rational functions, Bernstein expansion. Since bounds computed by these enclosure methods are sound, this approach may be used reliably in software verification tools. Advantage is taken of the partial derivatives of the constraint functions involved in the system, firstly to reduce the branching factor by the use of bisection heuristics and secondly to permit the computation of bifurcation sets for systems of ordinary differential equations. The associated software development, Kodiak, is presented, along with examples of three different branch and bound problem types it implements.
Curvature bound from gravitational catalysis
Gies, Holger; Martini, Riccardo
2018-04-01
We determine bounds on the curvature of local patches of spacetime from the requirement of intact long-range chiral symmetry. The bounds arise from a scale-dependent analysis of gravitational catalysis and its influence on the effective potential for the chiral order parameter, as induced by fermionic fluctuations on a curved spacetime with local hyperbolic properties. The bound is expressed in terms of the local curvature scalar measured in units of a gauge-invariant coarse-graining scale. We argue that any effective field theory of quantum gravity obeying this curvature bound is safe from chiral symmetry breaking through gravitational catalysis and thus compatible with the simultaneous existence of chiral fermions in the low-energy spectrum. With increasing number of dimensions, the curvature bound in terms of the hyperbolic scale parameter becomes stronger. Applying the curvature bound to the asymptotic safety scenario for quantum gravity in four spacetime dimensions translates into bounds on the matter content of particle physics models.
Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F
2016-12-01
The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.
Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R
2010-01-01
Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.
Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Umeki, Hiroyuki
2004-01-01
Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)
Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni
2011-01-01
of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...
Combining Alphas via Bounded Regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zura Kakushadze
2015-11-01
Full Text Available We give an explicit algorithm and source code for combining alpha streams via bounded regression. In practical applications, typically, there is insufficient history to compute a sample covariance matrix (SCM for a large number of alphas. To compute alpha allocation weights, one then resorts to (weighted regression over SCM principal components. Regression often produces alpha weights with insufficient diversification and/or skewed distribution against, e.g., turnover. This can be rectified by imposing bounds on alpha weights within the regression procedure. Bounded regression can also be applied to stock and other asset portfolio construction. We discuss illustrative examples.
Improved Range Searching Lower Bounds
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Kasper Green; Nguyen, Huy L.
2012-01-01
by constructing a hard input set and query set, and then invoking Chazelle and Rosenberg's [CGTA'96] general theorem on the complexity of navigation in the pointer machine. For the group model, we show that input sets and query sets that are hard for range reporting in the pointer machine (i.e. by Chazelle...... and Rosenberg's theorem), are also hard for dynamic range searching in the group model. This theorem allows us to reuse decades of research on range reporting lower bounds to immediately obtain a range of new group model lower bounds. Amongst others, this includes an improved lower bound for the fundamental...
An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration
Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam
1994-01-01
In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.
Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments
de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal
2015-01-01
Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275
Confidence bands for inverse regression models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo
2010-01-01
We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract
Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan
2012-01-01
It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...
How do regulators measure public confidence?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.
2006-01-01
The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)
Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.
Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven
2013-10-23
The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.
Schulz, Marc Daniel; Dusuel, Sébastien; Vidal, Julien
2016-11-01
We discuss the emergence of bound states in the low-energy spectrum of the string-net Hamiltonian in the presence of a string tension. In the ladder geometry, we show that a single bound state arises either for a finite tension or in the zero-tension limit depending on the theory considered. In the latter case, we perturbatively compute the binding energy as a function of the total quantum dimension. We also address this issue in the honeycomb lattice where the number of bound states in the topological phase depends on the total quantum dimension. Finally, the internal structure of these bound states is analyzed in the zero-tension limit.
On functions of bounded semivariation
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Monteiro, Giselle Antunes
2015-01-01
Roč. 40, č. 2 (2015), s. 233-276 ISSN 0147-1937 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : semivariation * functions of bounded variation * regulated functions Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.rae/1491271216
Computational Lower Bounds Using Diagonalization
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 14; Issue 7. Computational Lower Bounds Using Diagonalization - Languages, Turing Machines and Complexity Classes. M V Panduranga Rao. General Article Volume 14 Issue 7 July 2009 pp 682-690 ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paulson, S.L.
1995-01-01
Want to buy some reliability? The question would have been unthinkable in some markets served by the natural gas business even a few years ago, but in the new gas marketplace, industrial, commercial and even some residential customers have the opportunity to choose from among an array of options about the kind of natural gas service they need--and are willing to pay for. The complexities of this brave new world of restructuring and competition have sent the industry scrambling to find ways to educate and inform its customers about the increased responsibility they will have in determining the level of gas reliability they choose. This article discusses the new options and the new responsibilities of customers, the needed for continuous education, and MidAmerican Energy Company's experiment in direct marketing of natural gas
[Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].
Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka
2006-04-01
The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.
Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador
2014-05-01
In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Protein Correlation Profiles Identify Lipid Droplet Proteins with High Confidence*
Krahmer, Natalie; Hilger, Maximiliane; Kory, Nora; Wilfling, Florian; Stoehr, Gabriele; Mann, Matthias; Farese, Robert V.; Walther, Tobias C.
2013-01-01
Lipid droplets (LDs) are important organelles in energy metabolism and lipid storage. Their cores are composed of neutral lipids that form a hydrophobic phase and are surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer that harbors specific proteins. Most well-established LD proteins perform important functions, particularly in cellular lipid metabolism. Morphological studies show LDs in close proximity to and interacting with membrane-bound cellular organelles, including the endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondria, peroxisomes, and endosomes. Because of these close associations, it is difficult to purify LDs to homogeneity. Consequently, the confident identification of bona fide LD proteins via proteomics has been challenging. Here, we report a methodology for LD protein identification based on mass spectrometry and protein correlation profiles. Using LD purification and quantitative, high-resolution mass spectrometry, we identified LD proteins by correlating their purification profiles to those of known LD proteins. Application of the protein correlation profile strategy to LDs isolated from Drosophila S2 cells led to the identification of 111 LD proteins in a cellular LD fraction in which 1481 proteins were detected. LD localization was confirmed in a subset of identified proteins via microscopy of the expressed proteins, thereby validating the approach. Among the identified LD proteins were both well-characterized LD proteins and proteins not previously known to be localized to LDs. Our method provides a high-confidence LD proteome of Drosophila cells and a novel approach that can be applied to identify LD proteins of other cell types and tissues. PMID:23319140
Confidence-building and Canadian leadership
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)
1998-07-01
Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)
Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.
Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan
2015-11-01
People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.
ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fernando Luis, Gache
2010-01-01
Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.
Confidence-building and Canadian leadership
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cleminson, F.R.
1998-01-01
Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)
Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.
Matthews, David
2013-10-12
A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.
High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.
Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen
2018-06-01
We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.
Confidence building - is science the only approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bragg, K.
1990-01-01
The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab
Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire
that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...
Dynamic bounds coupled with Monte Carlo simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rajabalinejad, M., E-mail: M.Rajabalinejad@tudelft.n [Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands); Meester, L.E. [Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands); Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Vrijling, J.K. [Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)
2011-02-15
For the reliability analysis of engineering structures a variety of methods is known, of which Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely considered to be among the most robust and most generally applicable. To reduce simulation cost of the MC method, variance reduction methods are applied. This paper describes a method to reduce the simulation cost even further, while retaining the accuracy of Monte Carlo, by taking into account widely present monotonicity. For models exhibiting monotonic (decreasing or increasing) behavior, dynamic bounds (DB) are defined, which in a coupled Monte Carlo simulation are updated dynamically, resulting in a failure probability estimate, as well as a strict (non-probabilistic) upper and lower bounds. Accurate results are obtained at a much lower cost than an equivalent ordinary Monte Carlo simulation. In a two-dimensional and a four-dimensional numerical example, the cost reduction factors are 130 and 9, respectively, where the relative error is smaller than 5%. At higher accuracy levels, this factor increases, though this effect is expected to be smaller with increasing dimension. To show the application of DB method to real world problems, it is applied to a complex finite element model of a flood wall in New Orleans.
Reliable computation from contextual correlations
Oestereich, André L.; Galvão, Ernesto F.
2017-12-01
An operational approach to the study of computation based on correlations considers black boxes with one-bit inputs and outputs, controlled by a limited classical computer capable only of performing sums modulo-two. In this setting, it was shown that noncontextual correlations do not provide any extra computational power, while contextual correlations were found to be necessary for the deterministic evaluation of nonlinear Boolean functions. Here we investigate the requirements for reliable computation in this setting; that is, the evaluation of any Boolean function with success probability bounded away from 1 /2 . We show that bipartite CHSH quantum correlations suffice for reliable computation. We also prove that an arbitrarily small violation of a multipartite Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger noncontextuality inequality also suffices for reliable computation.
Simulation bounds for system availability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tietjen, G.L.; Waller, R.A.
1976-01-01
System availability is a dominant factor in the practicality of nuclear power electrical generating plants. A proposed model for obtaining either lower bounds or interval estimates on availability uses observed data on ''n'' failure-to-repair cycles of the system to estimate the parameters in the time-to-failure and time-to-repair models. These estimates are then used in simulating failure/repair cycles of the system. The availability estimate is obtained for each of 5000 samples of ''n'' failure/repair cycles to form a distribution of estimates. Specific percentile points of those simulated distributions are selected as lower simulation bounds or simulation interval bounds for the system availability. The method is illustrated with operational data from two nuclear plants for which an exponential time-to-failure and a lognormal time-to-repair are assumed
Relativistic bound state wave functions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Micu, L.
2005-01-01
A particular method of writing the bound state wave functions in relativistic form is applied to the solutions of the Dirac equation with confining potentials in order to obtain a relativistic description of a quark antiquark bound system representing a given meson. Concerning the role of the effective constituent in the present approach we first observe that without this additional constituent we couldn't expand the bound state wave function in terms of products of free states. Indeed, we notice that if the wave function depends on the relative coordinates only, all the expansion coefficients would be infinite. Secondly we remark that the effective constituent enabled us to give a Lorentz covariant meaning to the potential energy of the bound system which is now seen as the 4th component of a 4-momentum. On the other side, by relating the effective constituent to the quantum fluctuations of the background field which generate the binding, we provided a justification for the existence of some spatial degrees of freedom accompanying the interaction potential. These ones, which are quite unusual in quantum mechanics, in our model are the natural consequence of the the independence of the quarks and can be seen as the effect of the imperfect cancellation of the vector momenta during the quantum fluctuations. Related with all these we remark that the adequate representation for the relativistic description of a bound system is the momentum representation, because of the transparent and easy way of writing the conservation laws and the transformation properties of the wave functions. The only condition to be fulfilled is to find a suitable way to take into account the potential energy of the bound system. A particular feature of the present approach is that the confining forces are due to a kind of glue where both quarks are embedded. This recalls other bound state models where the wave function is factorized in terms of constituent wave functions and the confinement is
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zouzou, S.
1986-01-01
In the framework of simple non-relativistic potential models, we examine the system consisting of two quarks and two antiquarks with equal or unequal masses. We search for possible bound states below the threshold for the spontaneous dissociation into two mesons. We solve the four body problem by empirical or systematic variational methods and we include the virtual meson-meson components of the wave function. With standard two-body potentials, there is no proliferation of multiquarks. With unequal quark masses, we obtain however exotic (anti Qanti Qqq) bound states with a baryonic antidiquark-quark-quark structure very analogous to the heavy flavoured (Q'qq) baryons. (orig.)
Bound entanglement and local realism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaszlikowski, Dagomir; Zukowski, Marek; Gnacinski, Piotr
2002-01-01
We show using a numerical approach, which gives necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of local realism, that the bound entangled state presented in Bennett et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 5385 (1999)] admits a local and realistic description. We also find the lowest possible amount of some appropriate entangled state that must be ad-mixed to the bound entangled state so that the resulting density operator has no local and realistic description and as such can be useful in quantum communication and quantum computation
Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.
Parker, Douglas A.
This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…
Principles of psychological confidence of NPP operators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alpeev, A.S.
1994-01-01
The problems of operator interaction with subsystems supporting his activity are discussed from the point of view of formation of his psychological confidence on the basis of the automation intellectual means capabilities. The functions of operator activity supporting subsystems, which realization will provide to decrease greatly the portion of accidents at NPPs connected with mistakes in operator actions, are derived. 6 refs
Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.
Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefan Jaeger
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.
Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence
Sander, Paul
2009-01-01
Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…
Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions
Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin
2013-01-01
The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…
Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence
Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.
2016-01-01
The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…
Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan
2012-01-01
It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.
Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Isaacs, T
2002-01-01
Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of
Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Isaacs, T
2002-01-01
Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of
An Introduction To Reliability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Kyoung Su
1993-08-01
This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.
Semiclassical bounds in magnetic bottles
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Barseghyan, Diana; Exner, Pavel; Kovařík, H.; Weidl, T.
2016-01-01
Roč. 28, č. 1 (2016), s. 1650002 ISSN 0129-055X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-06818S Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : magnetic Laplacian * discrete spectrum * eigenvalue bounds Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.426, year: 2016
Positivity bounds for Sivers functions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang Zhongbo; Soffer, Jacques
2011-01-01
We generalize a positivity constraint derived initially for parity-conserving processes to the parity-violating ones, and use it to derive non-trivial bounds on several Sivers functions, entering in the theoretical description of single spin asymmetry for various processes.
Bound states of 'dressed' particles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shirokov, M.I.
1994-01-01
A new approach to the problem of bound states in relativistic quantum field theories is suggested. It uses the creation - destruction operators of 'dresses' particles which have been granted by Faddeev's (1963) 'dressing' formalism. Peculiarities of the proposed approach as compared to the known ones are discussed. 8 refs. (author)
Quantum lower bound for sorting
Shi, Yaoyun
2000-01-01
We prove that \\Omega(n log(n)) comparisons are necessary for any quantum algorithm that sorts n numbers with high success probability and uses only comparisons. If no error is allowed, at least 0.110nlog_2(n) - 0.067n + O(1) comparisons must be made. The previous known lower bound is \\Omega(n).
Unconditional lower bounds against advice
Buhrman, H.; Fortnow, L.; Santhanam, R.
2009-01-01
We show several unconditional lower bounds for exponential time classes against polynomial time classes with advice, including: (1) For any constant c, NEXP not in P^{NP[n^c]} (2) For any constant c, MAEXP not in MA/n^c (3) BPEXP not in BPP/n^{o(1)}. It was previously unknown even whether NEXP in
Binding energies of two deltas bound states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sato, Hiroshi; Saito, Koichi.
1982-06-01
Bound states of the two-deltas system are investigated by employing the realistic one boson exchange potential. It is found that there exist many bound states in each isospin channel and also found that the tensor interaction plays important role in producing these bound states. Relationship between these bound states and dibaryon resonances is discussed. (J.P.N.)
Evidence for a confidence-accuracy relationship in memory for same- and cross-race faces.
Nguyen, Thao B; Pezdek, Kathy; Wixted, John T
2017-12-01
Discrimination accuracy is usually higher for same- than for cross-race faces, a phenomenon known as the cross-race effect (CRE). According to prior research, the CRE occurs because memories for same- and cross-race faces rely on qualitatively different processes. However, according to a continuous dual-process model of recognition memory, memories that rely on qualitatively different processes do not differ in recognition accuracy when confidence is equated. Thus, although there are differences in overall same- and cross-race discrimination accuracy, confidence-specific accuracy (i.e., recognition accuracy at a particular level of confidence) may not differ. We analysed datasets from four recognition memory studies on same- and cross-race faces to test this hypothesis. Confidence ratings reliably predicted recognition accuracy when performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but not when performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Furthermore, at each level of confidence, confidence-specific accuracy for same- and cross-race faces did not significantly differ when overall performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but significantly differed when overall performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Thus, under certain conditions, high-confidence same-race and cross-race identifications may be equally reliable.
Energy condition bounds and their confrontation with supernovae data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lima, M. P.; Vitenti, S.; Reboucas, M. J.
2008-01-01
The energy conditions play an important role in the understanding of several properties of the Universe, including the current accelerating expansion phase and the possible existence of the so-called phantom fields. We show that the integrated bounds provided by the energy conditions on cosmological observables such as the distance modulus μ(z) and the lookback time t L (z) are not sufficient (or necessary) to ensure the local fulfillment of the energy conditions, making explicit the limitation of these bounds in the confrontation with observational data. We recast the energy conditions as bounds on the deceleration and normalized Hubble parameters, obtaining new bounds which are necessary and sufficient for the local fulfillment of the energy conditions. A statistical confrontation, with 1σ-3σ confidence levels, between our bounds and supernovae data from the gold and combined samples is made for the recent past. Our analyses indicate, with 3σ confidence levels, the fulfillment of both the weak energy condition (WEC) and dominant energy condition (DEC) for z≤1 and z < or approx. 0.8, respectively. In addition, they suggest a possible recent violation of the null energy condition (NEC) with 3σ, i.e. a very recent phase of superacceleration. Our analyses also show the possibility of violation of the strong energy condition (SEC) with 3σ in the recent past (z≤1), but interestingly the q(z)-best-fit curve crosses the SEC--fulfillment divider at z≅0.67, which is a value very close to the beginning of the epoch of cosmic acceleration predicted by the standard concordance flat ΛCDM scenario.
Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsuura, S.
2001-01-01
Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)
Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions
1990-09-01
0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500
Graphs and matroids weighted in a bounded incline algebra.
Lu, Ling-Xia; Zhang, Bei
2014-01-01
Firstly, for a graph weighted in a bounded incline algebra (or called a dioid), a longest path problem (LPP, for short) is presented, which can be considered the uniform approach to the famous shortest path problem, the widest path problem, and the most reliable path problem. The solutions for LPP and related algorithms are given. Secondly, for a matroid weighted in a linear matroid, the maximum independent set problem is studied.
Social media sentiment and consumer confidence
Daas, Piet J.H.; Puts, Marco J.H.
2014-01-01
Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...
Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations
Navruz, Bilgin; Delen, Erhan
2014-01-01
In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...
Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stan Ruecker
2007-05-01
Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.
Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis
Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés
The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.
A symmetric Roos bound for linear codes
Duursma, I.M.; Pellikaan, G.R.
2006-01-01
The van Lint–Wilson AB-method yields a short proof of the Roos bound for the minimum distance of a cyclic code. We use the AB-method to obtain a different bound for the weights of a linear code. In contrast to the Roos bound, the role of the codes A and B in our bound is symmetric. We use the bound
Computer simulation of bounded plasmas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lawson, W.S.
1987-01-01
The problems of simulating a one-dimensional bounded plasma system using particles in a gridded space are systematically explored and solutions to them are given. Such problems include the injection of particles at the boundaries, the solution of Poisson's equation, and the inclusion of an external circuit between the confining boundaries. A recently discovered artificial cooling effect is explained as being a side-effect of quiet injection, and its potential for causing serious but subtle errors in bounded simulation is noted. The methods described in the first part of the thesis are then applied to the simulation of an extension of the Pierce diode problem, specifically a Pierce diode modified by an external circuit between the electrodes. The results of these simulations agree to high accuracy with theory when a theory exists, and also show some interesting chaotic behavior in certain parameter regimes. The chaotic behavior is described in detail
Bounded Rationality in Transposition Processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vollaard, Hans; Martinsen, Dorte Sindbjerg
2014-01-01
Studies explaining the timeliness and correctness of the transposition of EU directives into national legislation have provided rather inconclusive findings. They do not offer a clear-cut prediction concerning the transposition of the patients’ rights directive, which is one of the first that con......Studies explaining the timeliness and correctness of the transposition of EU directives into national legislation have provided rather inconclusive findings. They do not offer a clear-cut prediction concerning the transposition of the patients’ rights directive, which is one of the first...... that concerns the organisation and financing of national healthcare systems. This article applies the perspective of bounded rationality to explain (irregularities in) the timely and correct transposition of EU directives. The cognitive and organisational constraints long posited by the bounded rationality...
2013-03-26
...; Comment Request; Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math Science Annual Performance Report AGENCY: The Office... considered public records. Title of Collection: Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math Science Annual Performance...) and Upward Bound Math and Science (UBMS) Programs. The Department is requesting a new APR because of...
Spectrum of gluino bound states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chanowitz, M.; Sharpe, S.; California Univ., Berkeley
1983-01-01
Using the bag model to first order in αsub(s) we find that if light gluinos exist they will appear as constituents of electrically charged bound states which are stable against strong interaction decay. We review the present experimental constraints and conclude that light, long-lived charged hadrons containing gluinos might exist with lifetimes between 2x10 - 8 and 10 - 14 s. (orig.)
1981-12-01
DTIC _JUN ,I 51982 UNITED STATES AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY E AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air-force Base,Ohio S 2 B 14 Best...t’re Air F:or- e -ns"it’.,, e of Technclogy Air Uv-ýerz.tyj in Partial ulfilIThent Reýquirements fol- ,-hth D,ýýr.e c4" MastLer of’ OperaZ-ins...iesearc- VeTA 3 MohamedO ’’’’Jo SpD’ Fas.abal-la Lt. C ol. Egyplt.’.an Army Gradua~’p ( ler ons Research December 1981 Approcved fL~r pu>ý’ rclea.se
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Repins, Ingrid L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hacke, Peter L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jordan, Dirk [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kempe, Michael D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitfield, Kent [Underwriters Laboratories; Phillips, Nancy [DuPont; Sample, Tony [European Commission; Monokroussos, Christos [TUV Rheinland; Hsi, Edward [Swiss RE; Wohlgemuth, John [PowerMark Corporation; Seidel, Peter [First Solar; Jahn, Ulrike [TUV Rheinland; Tanahashi, Tadanori [National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Chen, Yingnan [China General Certification Center; Jaeckel, Bengt [Underwriters Laboratories; Yamamichi, Masaaki [RTS Corporation
2017-10-05
Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured acceleration factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.
Development in structural systems reliability theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Murotsu, Y.
1986-01-01
This paper is concerned with two topics on structural systems reliability theory. One covers automatic generation of failure mode equations, identifications of stochastically dominant failure modes, and reliability assessment of redundant structures. Reduced stiffness matrixes and equivalent nodal forces representing the failed elements are introduced for expressing the safety of the elements, using a matrix method. Dominant failure modes are systematically selected by a branch-and-bound technique and heuristic operations. The other discusses the various optimum design problems based on reliability concept. Those problems are interpreted through a solution to a multi-objective optimization problem. (orig.)
Development in structural systems reliability theory
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Murotsu, Y
1986-07-01
This paper is concerned with two topics on structural systems reliability theory. One covers automatic generation of failure mode equations, identifications of stochastically dominant failure modes, and reliability assessment of redundant structures. Reduced stiffness matrixes and equivalent nodal forces representing the failed elements are introduced for expressing the safety of the elements, using a matrix method. Dominant failure modes are systematically selected by a branch-and-bound technique and heuristic operations. The other discusses the various optimum design problems based on reliability concept. Those problems are interpreted through a solution to a multi-objective optimization problem.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2010: February 18-19, 2010
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, J.
2013-11-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2012: February 28 - March 1, 2012
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, S.
2013-11-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2011: February 16-17, 2011
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, S.
2013-11-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2013: February 26-27, 2013
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, S.
2013-10-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2014: February 25-26, 2014
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kurtz, S.
2014-02-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Psychometric properties of the communication Confidence Rating Scale for Aphasia (CCRSA): phase 1.
Cherney, Leora R; Babbitt, Edna M; Semik, Patrick; Heinemann, Allen W
2011-01-01
Confidence is a construct that has not been explored previously in aphasia research. We developed the Communication Confidence Rating Scale for Aphasia (CCRSA) to assess confidence in communicating in a variety of activities and evaluated its psychometric properties using rating scale (Rasch) analysis. The CCRSA was administered to 21 individuals with aphasia before and after participation in a computer-based language therapy study. Person reliability of the 8-item CCRSA was .77. The 5-category rating scale demonstrated monotonic increases in average measures from low to high ratings. However, one item ("I follow news, sports, stories on TV/movies") misfit the construct defined by the other items (mean square infit = 1.69, item-measure correlation = .41). Deleting this item improved reliability to .79; the 7 remaining items demonstrated excellent fit to the underlying construct, although there was a modest ceiling effect in this sample. Pre- to posttreatment changes on the 7-item CCRSA measure were statistically significant using a paired samples t test. Findings support the reliability and sensitivity of the CCRSA in assessing participants' self-report of communication confidence. Further evaluation of communication confidence is required with larger and more diverse samples.
Cyclotron transitions of bound ions
Bezchastnov, Victor G.; Pavlov, George G.
2017-06-01
A charged particle in a magnetic field possesses discrete energy levels associated with particle rotation around the field lines. The radiative transitions between these levels are the well-known cyclotron transitions. We show that a bound complex of particles with a nonzero net charge displays analogous transitions between the states of confined motion of the entire complex in the field. The latter bound-ion cyclotron transitions are affected by a coupling between the collective and internal motions of the complex and, as a result, differ from the transitions of a "reference" bare ion with the same mass and charge. We analyze the cyclotron transitions for complex ions by including the coupling within a rigorous quantum approach. Particular attention is paid to comparison of the transition energies and oscillator strengths to those of the bare ion. Selection rules based on integrals of collective motion are derived for the bound-ion cyclotron transitions analytically, and the perturbation and coupled-channel approaches are developed to study the transitions quantitatively. Representative examples are considered and discussed for positive and negative atomic and cluster ions.
An assessment of the precision and confidence of aquatic eddy correlation measurements
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Donis, Daphne; Holtappels, Moritz; Noss, Christian
2015-01-01
facility with well-constrained hydrodynamics. These observations are used to review data processing procedures and to recommend improved deployment methods, thus improving the precision, reliability, and confidence of EC measurements. Specifically, this study demonstrates that 1) the alignment of the time...... series based on maximum cross correlation improved the precision of EC flux estimations; 2) an oxygen sensor with a response time of
Transparency as an element of public confidence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, H.K.
2007-01-01
In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder
National Debate and Public Confidence in Sweden
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lindquist, Ted
2014-01-01
Ted Lindquist, coordinator of the Association of Swedish Municipalities with Nuclear Facilities (KSO), closed the first day of conferences. He showed what the nuclear landscape was in Sweden, and in particular that through time there has been a rather good support from the population. He explained that the reason could be the confidence of the public in the national debate. On a more local scale, Ted Lindquist showed how overwhelmingly strong the support was in towns where the industry would like to operate long-term storage facilities
Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Castro
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.
Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.
Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas
2017-05-09
Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.
Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning
Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas
2017-01-01
Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014
Labeling schemes for bounded degree graphs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Adjiashvili, David; Rotbart, Noy Galil
2014-01-01
We investigate adjacency labeling schemes for graphs of bounded degree Δ = O(1). In particular, we present an optimal (up to an additive constant) log n + O(1) adjacency labeling scheme for bounded degree trees. The latter scheme is derived from a labeling scheme for bounded degree outerplanar...... graphs. Our results complement a similar bound recently obtained for bounded depth trees [Fraigniaud and Korman, SODA 2010], and may provide new insights for closing the long standing gap for adjacency in trees [Alstrup and Rauhe, FOCS 2002]. We also provide improved labeling schemes for bounded degree...
Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K
1998-01-01
This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul
Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL
2011-04-01
Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.
Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.
2004-01-01
The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication
The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited
Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods
2009-01-01
Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new
The algebras of bounded and essentially bounded Lebesgue measurable functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mortini Raymond
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Let X be a set in ℝn with positive Lebesgue measure. It is well known that the spectrum of the algebra L∞(X of (equivalence classes of essentially bounded, complex-valued, measurable functions on X is an extremely disconnected compact Hausdorff space.We show, by elementary methods, that the spectrum M of the algebra ℒb(X, ℂ of all bounded measurable functions on X is not extremely disconnected, though totally disconnected. Let ∆ = { δx : x ∈ X} be the set of point evaluations and let g be the Gelfand topology on M. Then (∆, g is homeomorphic to (X, Τdis,where Tdis is the discrete topology. Moreover, ∆ is a dense subset of the spectrum M of ℒb(X, ℂ. Finally, the hull h(I, (which is homeomorphic to M(L∞(X, of the ideal of all functions in ℒb(X, ℂ vanishing almost everywhere on X is a nowhere dense and extremely disconnected subset of the Corona M \\ ∆ of ℒb(X, ℂ.
Voronoi Diagrams Without Bounding Boxes
Sang, E. T. K.
2015-10-01
We present a technique for presenting geographic data in Voronoi diagrams without having to specify a bounding box. The method restricts Voronoi cells to points within a user-defined distance of the data points. The mathematical foundation of the approach is presented as well. The cell clipping method is particularly useful for presenting geographic data that is spread in an irregular way over a map, as for example the Dutch dialect data displayed in Figure 2. The automatic generation of reasonable cell boundaries also makes redundant a frequently used solution to this problem that requires data owners to specify region boundaries, as in Goebl (2010) and Nerbonne et al (2011).
Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.
2006-01-01
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values
Bounded Densities and Their Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, V.
2009-01-01
This paper describes how one can compute interval-valued statistical measures given limited information about the underlying distribution. The particular focus is on a bounded derivative of a probability density function and its combination with other available statistical evidence for computing ...... quantities of interest. To be able to utilise the evidence about the derivative it is suggested to adapt the ‘conventional’ problem statement to variational calculus and the way to do so is demonstrated. A number of examples are given throughout the paper....
Removal of bound metal fasteners
Kramer, R. F.
1981-04-01
This project explored the removal of bound metal fasteners through the use of ultrasonically assisted wrenches. Two wrenches were designed, fabricated and tested. Previous studies had indicated an increase in thread tension for a given torque application under the influence of ultrasonics. Based on this, the loosening of seized and corroded fasteners with the aid of ultrasonics was explored. Experimental data confirmed our prior analysis of the torque-tension relationship under the influence of ultrasonics; however, our progress did not satisfy the requirements necessary to loosen seized studs in a shipyard environment.
Space mappings with bounded distortion
Reshetnyak, Yu G
1989-01-01
This book is intended for researchers and students concerned with questions in analysis and function theory. The author provides an exposition of the main results obtained in recent years by Soviet and other mathematicians in the theory of mappings with bounded distortion, an active direction in contemporary mathematics. The mathematical tools presented can be applied to a broad spectrum of problems that go beyond the context of the main topic of investigation. For a number of questions in the theory of partial differential equations and the theory of functions with generalized derivatives, this is the first time they have appeared in an internationally distributed monograph.
Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.
Knudson, Duane
2017-11-01
Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.
Technology in a crisis of confidence
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Damodaran, G R
1979-04-01
The power that technological progress has given to engineers is examined to see if there has been a corresponding growth in human happiness. A credit/debit approach is discussed, whereby technological advancement is measured against the criteria of social good. The credit side includes medicine, agriculture, and energy use, while the debit side lists pollution, unequal distribution of technology and welfare, modern weaponry, resource depletion, and a possible decline in the quality of life. The present anti-technologists claim the debit side is now predominant, but the author challenges this position by examining the role of technology and the engineer in the society. He sees a need for renewed self-confidence and a sense of direction among engineers, but is generally optimistic that technology and civilization will continue to be intertwined. (DCK)
Considering public confidence in developing regulatory programs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Collins, S.J.
2001-01-01
In the area of public trust and in any investment, planning and strategy are important. While it is accepted in the United States that an essential part of our mission is to leverage our resources to improving Public Confidence this performance goal must be planned for, managed and measured. Similar to our premier performance goal of Maintaining Safety, a strategy must be developed and integrated with our external stake holders but with internal regulatory staff as well. In order to do that, business is to be conducted in an open environment, the basis for regulatory decisions has to be available through public documents and public meetings, communication must be done in clear and consistent terms. (N.C.)
PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-12-01
The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.
Hunt for the 11P1 bound state of charmonium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Porter, F.C.
1982-02-01
Using the Crystal Ball detector at SPEAR, we have looked for evidence of the isospin-violating decay psi' → π 01 P 1 , where 1 P 1 is the predicted spin-singlet p-wave bound state of charmonium. For a 1 P 1 state at the predicted mass (approx. 3520 MeV), we obtain the 95% confidence level limits: BR(psi' → π 01 P 1 ) 01 P 1 )BR( 1 P 1 → γn/sub c/ < 0.14%. These limits are compared with simple theoretical predictions
On semidefinite programming bounds for graph bandwidth
de Klerk, E.; Nagy, M.; Sotirov, R.
2013-01-01
In this paper, we propose two new lower bounds on graph bandwidth and cyclic bandwidth based on semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations of the quadratic assignment problem. We compare the new bounds with two other SDP bounds reported in [A. Blum, G. Konjevod, R. Ravi, and S. Vempala,
System Reliability Engineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, Tae Jin
2005-02-01
This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.
Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Li, Xin; Ma, Li
2018-01-01
Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...
Quantum bounds on Bell inequalities
Pál, Károly F.; Vértesi, Tamás
2009-02-01
We have determined the maximum quantum violation of 241 tight bipartite Bell inequalities with up to five two-outcome measurement settings per party by constructing the appropriate measurement operators in up to six-dimensional complex and eight-dimensional real-component Hilbert spaces using numerical optimization. Out of these inequalities 129 have been introduced here. In 43 cases higher-dimensional component spaces gave larger violation than qubits, and in three occasions the maximum was achieved with six-dimensional spaces. We have also calculated upper bounds on these Bell inequalities using a method proposed recently. For all but 20 inequalities the best solution found matched the upper bound. Surprisingly, the simplest inequality of the set examined, with only three measurement settings per party, was not among them, despite the high dimensionality of the Hilbert space considered. We also computed detection threshold efficiencies for the maximally entangled qubit pair. These could be lowered in several instances if degenerate measurements were also allowed.
The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.
Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L
2017-05-01
The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).
Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.
1985-08-01
Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs
Organically bound tritium analysis in environmental samples
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baglan, N. [CEA/DAM/DIF, Arpajon (France); Kim, S.B. [AECL, Chalk River Laboratories, Chalk River, ON (Canada); Cossonnet, C. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/STEME/LMRE, Orsay (France); Croudace, I.W.; Warwick, P.E. [GAU-Radioanalytical, University of Southampton, Southampton (United Kingdom); Fournier, M. [IRSN/DG/DMQ, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Galeriu, D. [IFIN-HH, Horia-Hulubei, Inst. Phys. and Nucl. Eng., Bucharest (Romania); Momoshima, N. [Kyushu University, Radioisotope Ctr., Fukuoka (Japan); Ansoborlo, E. [CEA/DEN/DRCP/CETAMA, Bagnols-sur-Ceze (France)
2015-03-15
Organically bound tritium (OBT) has become of increased interest within the last decade, with a focus on its behaviour and also its analysis, which are important to assess tritium distribution in the environment. In contrast, there are no certified reference materials and no standard analytical method through the international organization related to OBT. In order to resolve this issue, an OBT international working group was created in May 2012. Over 20 labs from around the world participated and submitted their results for the first intercomparison exercise results on potato (Sep 2013). The samples, specially-prepared potatoes, were provided in March 2013 to each participant. Technical information and results from this first exercise are discussed here for all the labs which have realised the five replicates necessary to allow a reliable statistical treatment. The results are encouraging as the increased number of participating labs did not degrade the observed dispersion of the results for a similar activity level. Therefore, the results do not seem to depend on the analytical procedure used. From this work an optimised procedure can start to be developed to deal with OBT analysis and will guide subsequent planned OBT trials by the international group.
A fuzzy logic algorithm to assign confidence levels to heart and respiratory rate time series
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, J; McKenna, T M; Gribok, A; Reifman, J; Beidleman, B A; Tharion, W J
2008-01-01
We have developed a fuzzy logic-based algorithm to qualify the reliability of heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) vital-sign time-series data by assigning a confidence level to the data points while they are measured as a continuous data stream. The algorithm's membership functions are derived from physiology-based performance limits and mass-assignment-based data-driven characteristics of the signals. The assigned confidence levels are based on the reliability of each HR and RR measurement as well as the relationship between them. The algorithm was tested on HR and RR data collected from subjects undertaking a range of physical activities, and it showed acceptable performance in detecting four types of faults that result in low-confidence data points (receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve ranged from 0.67 (SD 0.04) to 0.83 (SD 0.03), mean and standard deviation (SD) over all faults). The algorithm is sensitive to noise in the raw HR and RR data and will flag many data points as low confidence if the data are noisy; prior processing of the data to reduce noise allows identification of only the most substantial faults. Depending on how HR and RR data are processed, the algorithm can be applied as a tool to evaluate sensor performance or to qualify HR and RR time-series data in terms of their reliability before use in automated decision-assist systems
Developing Reliable Life Support for Mars
Jones, Harry W.
2017-01-01
A human mission to Mars will require highly reliable life support systems. Mars life support systems may recycle water and oxygen using systems similar to those on the International Space Station (ISS). However, achieving sufficient reliability is less difficult for ISS than it will be for Mars. If an ISS system has a serious failure, it is possible to provide spare parts, or directly supply water or oxygen, or if necessary bring the crew back to Earth. Life support for Mars must be designed, tested, and improved as needed to achieve high demonstrated reliability. A quantitative reliability goal should be established and used to guide development t. The designers should select reliable components and minimize interface and integration problems. In theory a system can achieve the component-limited reliability, but testing often reveal unexpected failures due to design mistakes or flawed components. Testing should extend long enough to detect any unexpected failure modes and to verify the expected reliability. Iterated redesign and retest may be required to achieve the reliability goal. If the reliability is less than required, it may be improved by providing spare components or redundant systems. The number of spares required to achieve a given reliability goal depends on the component failure rate. If the failure rate is under estimated, the number of spares will be insufficient and the system may fail. If the design is likely to have undiscovered design or component problems, it is advisable to use dissimilar redundancy, even though this multiplies the design and development cost. In the ideal case, a human tended closed system operational test should be conducted to gain confidence in operations, maintenance, and repair. The difficulty in achieving high reliability in unproven complex systems may require the use of simpler, more mature, intrinsically higher reliability systems. The limitations of budget, schedule, and technology may suggest accepting lower and
Capacity Bounds for Parallel Optical Wireless Channels
Chaaban, Anas; Rezki, Zouheir; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim
2016-01-01
A system consisting of parallel optical wireless channels with a total average intensity constraint is studied. Capacity upper and lower bounds for this system are derived. Under perfect channel-state information at the transmitter (CSIT), the bounds have to be optimized with respect to the power allocation over the parallel channels. The optimization of the lower bound is non-convex, however, the KKT conditions can be used to find a list of possible solutions one of which is optimal. The optimal solution can then be found by an exhaustive search algorithm, which is computationally expensive. To overcome this, we propose low-complexity power allocation algorithms which are nearly optimal. The optimized capacity lower bound nearly coincides with the capacity at high SNR. Without CSIT, our capacity bounds lead to upper and lower bounds on the outage probability. The outage probability bounds meet at high SNR. The system with average and peak intensity constraints is also discussed.
The theory of confidence-building measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Darilek, R.E.
1992-01-01
This paper discusses the theory of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in two ways. First, it employs a top-down, deductively oriented approach to explain CBM theory in terms of the arms control goals and objectives to be achieved, the types of measures to be employed, and the problems or limitations likely to be encountered when applying CBMs to conventional or nuclear forces. The chapter as a whole asks how various types of CBMs might function during a political - military escalation from peacetime to a crisis and beyond (i.e. including conflict), as well as how they might operate in a de-escalatory environment. In pursuit of these overarching issues, the second section of the chapter raises a fundamental but complicating question: how might the next all-out war actually come aoubt - by unpremeditated escalation resulting from misunderstanding or miscalculation, or by premeditation resulting in a surprise attack? The second section of the paper addresses this question, explores its various implications for CBMs, and suggests the potential contribution of different types of CBMs toward successful resolution of the issues involved
Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiaro, P.J. Jr.
1993-01-01
Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to open-quotes false alarms.close quotes This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a open-quotes false alarm?close quotes Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits
Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiaro, P.J. Jr.
1993-01-01
Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits
Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiaro, P.J. Jr.
1994-01-01
Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that they put their trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits
VORONOI DIAGRAMS WITHOUT BOUNDING BOXES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. T. K. Sang
2015-10-01
Full Text Available We present a technique for presenting geographic data in Voronoi diagrams without having to specify a bounding box. The method restricts Voronoi cells to points within a user-defined distance of the data points. The mathematical foundation of the approach is presented as well. The cell clipping method is particularly useful for presenting geographic data that is spread in an irregular way over a map, as for example the Dutch dialect data displayed in Figure 2. The automatic generation of reasonable cell boundaries also makes redundant a frequently used solution to this problem that requires data owners to specify region boundaries, as in Goebl (2010 and Nerbonne et al (2011.
Spectral computations for bounded operators
Ahues, Mario; Limaye, Balmohan
2001-01-01
Exact eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and principal vectors of operators with infinite dimensional ranges can rarely be found. Therefore, one must approximate such operators by finite rank operators, then solve the original eigenvalue problem approximately. Serving as both an outstanding text for graduate students and as a source of current results for research scientists, Spectral Computations for Bounded Operators addresses the issue of solving eigenvalue problems for operators on infinite dimensional spaces. From a review of classical spectral theory through concrete approximation techniques to finite dimensional situations that can be implemented on a computer, this volume illustrates the marriage of pure and applied mathematics. It contains a variety of recent developments, including a new type of approximation that encompasses a variety of approximation methods but is simple to verify in practice. It also suggests a new stopping criterion for the QR Method and outlines advances in both the iterative refineme...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bechtle, Philip [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Physikalisches Inst.; Heinemeyer, Sven [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Santander (Spain); Staal, Oscar [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physics; Stefaniak, Tim; Williams, Karina E. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Physikalisches Inst.; Bonn Univ. (Germany). Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics; Weiglein, Georg [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Brein, Oliver
2013-12-15
We describe the new developments in version 4 of the public computer code HiggsBounds. HiggsBounds is a tool to test models with arbitrary Higgs sectors, containing both neutral and charged Higgs bosons, against the published exclusion bounds from Higgs searches at the LEP, Tevatron and LHC experiments. From the model predictions for the Higgs masses, branching ratios, production cross sections and total decay widths - which are specified by the user in the input for the program - the code calculates the predicted signal rates for the search channels considered in the experimental data. The signal rates are compared to the expected and observed cross section limits from the Higgs searches to determine whether a point in the model parameter space is excluded at 95% confidence level. In this paper we present a modification of the HiggsBounds main algorithm that extends the exclusion test in order to ensure that it provides useful results in the presence of one or more significant excesses in the data, corresponding to potential Higgs signals. We also describe a new method to test whether the limits from an experimental search performed under certain model assumptions can be applied to a different theoretical model. Further developments discussed here include a framework to take into account theoretical uncertainties on the Higgs mass predictions, and the possibility to obtain the {chi}{sup 2} likelihood of Higgs exclusion limits from LEP. Extensions to the user subroutines from earlier versions of HiggsBounds are described. The new features are demonstrated by additional example programs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bechtle, Philip; Staal, Oscar; Brein, Oliver
2013-12-01
We describe the new developments in version 4 of the public computer code HiggsBounds. HiggsBounds is a tool to test models with arbitrary Higgs sectors, containing both neutral and charged Higgs bosons, against the published exclusion bounds from Higgs searches at the LEP, Tevatron and LHC experiments. From the model predictions for the Higgs masses, branching ratios, production cross sections and total decay widths - which are specified by the user in the input for the program - the code calculates the predicted signal rates for the search channels considered in the experimental data. The signal rates are compared to the expected and observed cross section limits from the Higgs searches to determine whether a point in the model parameter space is excluded at 95% confidence level. In this paper we present a modification of the HiggsBounds main algorithm that extends the exclusion test in order to ensure that it provides useful results in the presence of one or more significant excesses in the data, corresponding to potential Higgs signals. We also describe a new method to test whether the limits from an experimental search performed under certain model assumptions can be applied to a different theoretical model. Further developments discussed here include a framework to take into account theoretical uncertainties on the Higgs mass predictions, and the possibility to obtain the χ 2 likelihood of Higgs exclusion limits from LEP. Extensions to the user subroutines from earlier versions of HiggsBounds are described. The new features are demonstrated by additional example programs.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhou, Dao; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede
2016-01-01
DC capacitors in power electronic converters are a major constraint on improvement of the power density and the reliability. In this paper, according to the degradation data of tested capacitors, the lifetime model of the component is analyzed at various confidence levels. Then, the mission profile...... based lifetime expectancy of the individual capacitor and the capacitor bank is estimated in a fuel cell backup power converter operating in both standby mode and operation mode. The lifetime prediction of the capacitor banks at different confidence levels is also obtained....
Reliability technology and nuclear power
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garrick, B.J.; Kaplan, S.
1976-01-01
This paper reviews some of the history and status of nuclear reliability and the evolution of this subject from art towards science. It shows that that probability theory is the appropriate and essential mathematical language of this subject. The authors emphasize that it is more useful to view probability not as a $prime$frequency$prime$, i.e., not as the result of a statistical experiment, but rather as a measure of state of confidence or a state of knowledge. They also show that the probabilistic, quantitative approach has a considerable history of application in the electric power industry in the area of power system planning. Finally, the authors show that the decision theory notion of utility provides a point of view from which risks, benefits, safety, and reliability can be viewed in a unified way thus facilitating understanding, comparison, and communication. 29 refs
Examining Belief and Confidence in Schizophrenia
Joyce, Dan W.; Averbeck, Bruno B.; Frith, Chris D.; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.
2018-01-01
Background People with psychoses often report fixed, delusional beliefs that are sustained even in the presence of unequivocal contrary evidence. Such delusional beliefs are the result of integrating new and old evidence inappropriately in forming a cognitive model. We propose and test a cognitive model of belief formation using experimental data from an interactive “Rock Paper Scissors” game. Methods Participants (33 controls and 27 people with schizophrenia) played a competitive, time-pressured interactive two-player game (Rock, Paper, Scissors). Participant’s behavior was modeled by a generative computational model using leaky-integrator and temporal difference methods. This model describes how new and old evidence is integrated to form both a playing strategy to beat the opponent and provide a mechanism for reporting confidence in one’s playing strategy to win against the opponent Results People with schizophrenia fail to appropriately model their opponent’s play despite consistent (rather than random) patterns that can be exploited in the simulated opponent’s play. This is manifest as a failure to weigh existing evidence appropriately against new evidence. Further, participants with schizophrenia show a ‘jumping to conclusions’ bias, reporting successful discovery of a winning strategy with insufficient evidence. Conclusions The model presented suggests two tentative mechanisms in delusional belief formation – i) one for modeling patterns in other’s behavior, where people with schizophrenia fail to use old evidence appropriately and ii) a meta-cognitive mechanism for ‘confidence’ in such beliefs where people with schizophrenia overweight recent reward history in deciding on the value of beliefs about the opponent. PMID:23521846
Sustainable nuclear development and public confidence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gagarinski, A.
2000-01-01
This report discusses the objective preconditions, which would lead the world community to acceptance of nuclear energy. The following conditions deserve special emphasis: (a) Demographic growth, resulting in the increase of energy demand and promoting the understanding of the fact, that the world energy resources are limited and all possible energy sources, including nuclear ones, should be used. (b) Development of the 'third-world' countries, creating additional energy demand, which cannot be met without nuclear power. (c) Global (and influencing the plans of each country) need of availability and acceptable costs together with reliability and safety of energy supply, and, consequently, the interest to energy sources diversification in order to eliminate the dependence of fossil fuels import. The paper considers the ways to solve this strategic task. Its solution could take a long time (several decades) and should be properly perceived by the generation of specialists now starting their career in nuclear science and industry. Now it is a good time for the new generation of nuclear specialists to solve this problem - the large-scale NPP development is not yet needed, there is a large accumulated experience and perspective ideas, and there is enough time to analyze the problems in detail, propose and prepare the solutions and convince the general public, that these solutions are correct. And then the next phase of nuclear energy development would be based not only on correct technical solutions, but also on a favourable social environment. (authors)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steven Y Leigh
Full Text Available Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS nanoparticles have been engineered to generate unique fingerprint spectra and are potentially useful as bright contrast agents for molecular diagnostics. One promising strategy for biomedical diagnostics and imaging is to functionalize various particle types ("flavors", each emitting a unique spectral signature, to target a large multiplexed panel of molecular biomarkers. While SERS particles emit narrow spectral features that allow them to be easily separable under ideal conditions, the presence of competing noise sources and background signals such as detector noise, laser background, and autofluorescence confounds the reliability of demultiplexing algorithms. Results obtained during time-constrained in vivo imaging experiments may not be reproducible or accurate. Therefore, our goal is to provide experimentalists with a metric that may be monitored to enforce a desired bound on accuracy within a user-defined confidence level. We have defined a spectral reliability index (SRI, based on the output of a direct classical least-squares (DCLS demultiplexing routine, which provides a measure of the reliability of the computed nanoparticle concentrations and ratios. We present simulations and experiments to demonstrate the feasibility of this strategy, which can potentially be utilized for a range of instruments and biomedical applications involving multiplexed SERS nanoparticles.
AMSAA Reliability Growth Guide
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Broemm, William
2000-01-01
... has developed reliability growth methodology for all phases of the process, from planning to tracking to projection. The report presents this methodology and associated reliability growth concepts.
Learning about confidence intervals with software R
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gariela Gonçalves
2013-08-01
Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about
Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard D. Morey
2008-09-01
Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.
A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.
1986-01-01
The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)
Instanton bound states in ABJM theory
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hatsuda, Yasuyuki [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Moriyama, Sanefumi [Nagoya Univ. (Japan). Kobayashi Maskawa Inst. and Graduate School of Mathematics; Okuyama, Kazumi [Shinshu Univ., Matsumoto, Nagano (Japan). Dept. of Physics
2013-06-15
The partition function of the ABJM theory receives non-perturbative corrections due to instanton effects. We study these non-perturbative corrections, including bound states of worldsheet instantons and membrane instantons, in the Fermi-gas approach. We require that the total non-perturbative correction should be always finite for arbitrary Chern-Simons level. This finiteness is realized quite non-trivially because each bound state contribution naively diverges at some levels. The poles of each contribution should be canceled out in total. We use this pole cancellation mechanism to find unknown bound state corrections from known ones. We conjecture a general expression of the bound state contribution. Summing up all the bound state contributions, we find that the effect of bound states is simply incorporated into the worldsheet instanton correction by a redefinition of the chemical potential in the Fermi-gas system. Analytic expressions of the 3- and 4-membrane instanton corrections are also proposed.
de Sanctis, Luca; Galla, Tobias
2009-04-01
We study the effects of bounded confidence thresholds and of interaction and external noise on Axelrod’s model of social influence. Our study is based on a combination of numerical simulations and an integration of the mean-field master equation describing the system in the thermodynamic limit. We find that interaction thresholds affect the system only quantitatively, but that they do not alter the basic phase structure. The known crossover between an ordered and a disordered state in finite systems subject to external noise persists in models with general confidence threshold. Interaction noise here facilitates the dynamics and reduces relaxation times. We also study Axelrod systems with metric features and point out similarities and differences compared to models with nominal features.
Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J
2015-01-01
This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.
Bounded elements in Locally C*-algebras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El Harti, Rachid
2001-09-01
In order to get more useful information about Locally C*-algebras, we introduce in this paper the notion of bounded elements. First, we study the connection between bounded elements and spectrally bounded elements. Some structural results of Locally C*-algebras are established in Theorems 1 , 2 and 3. As an immediate consequence of Theorem 3, we give a characterization of the connected component of the identity in the group of unitary elements for a Locally C*-algebra. (author)
Fuzzy upper bounds and their applications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Soleimani-damaneh, M. [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematical Science and Computer Engineering, Teacher Training University, 599 Taleghani Avenue, Tehran 15618 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: soleimani_d@yahoo.com
2008-04-15
This paper considers the concept of fuzzy upper bounds and provides some relevant applications. Considering a fuzzy DEA model, the existence of a fuzzy upper bound for the objective function of the model is shown and an effective approach to solve that model is introduced. Some dual interpretations are provided, which are useful for practical purposes. Applications of the concept of fuzzy upper bounds in two physical problems are pointed out.
Bounded cohomology of discrete groups
Frigerio, Roberto
2017-01-01
The author manages a near perfect equilibrium between necessary technicalities (always well motivated) and geometric intuition, leading the readers from the first simple definition to the most striking applications of the theory in 13 very pleasant chapters. This book can serve as an ideal textbook for a graduate topics course on the subject and become the much-needed standard reference on Gromov's beautiful theory. -Michelle Bucher The theory of bounded cohomology, introduced by Gromov in the late 1980s, has had powerful applications in geometric group theory and the geometry and topology of manifolds, and has been the topic of active research continuing to this day. This monograph provides a unified, self-contained introduction to the theory and its applications, making it accessible to a student who has completed a first course in algebraic topology and manifold theory. The book can be used as a source for research projects for master's students, as a thorough introduction to the field for graduate student...
Some Improved Nonperturbative Bounds for Fermionic Expansions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lohmann, Martin, E-mail: marlohmann@gmail.com [Universita di Roma Tre, Dipartimento di Matematica (Italy)
2016-06-15
We reconsider the Gram-Hadamard bound as it is used in constructive quantum field theory and many body physics to prove convergence of Fermionic perturbative expansions. Our approach uses a recursion for the amplitudes of the expansion, discovered in a model problem by Djokic (2013). It explains the standard way to bound the expansion from a new point of view, and for some of the amplitudes provides new bounds, which avoid the use of Fourier transform, and are therefore superior to the standard bounds for models like the cold interacting Fermi gas.
Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Ndhlovu, T
2009-11-01
Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...
nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Temechegn
Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.
Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function
Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek
2006-01-01
The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...
49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.
2010-10-01
... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...
Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students
Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul
2012-01-01
Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…
Variational lower bound on the scattering length
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosenberg, L.; Spruch, L.
1975-01-01
The scattering length A characterizes the zero-energy scattering of one system by another. It was shown some time ago that a variational upper bound on A could be obtained using methods, of the Rayleigh-Ritz type, which are commonly employed to obtain upper bounds on energy eigenvalues. Here we formulate a method for obtaining a variational lower bound on A. Once again the essential idea is to express the scattering length as a variational estimate plus an error term and then to reduce the problem of bounding the error term to one involving bounds on energy eigenvalues. In particular, the variational lower bound on A is rigorously established provided a certin modified Hamiltonian can be shown to have no discrete states lying below the level of the continuum threshold. It is unfortunately true that necessary conditions for the existence of bound states are not available for multiparticle systems in general. However, in the case of positron-atom scattering the adiabatic approximation can be introduced as an (essentially) solvable comparison problem to rigorously establish the nonexistence of bound states of the modified Hamiltonian. It has recently been shown how the validity of the variational upper bound on A can be maintained when the target ground-state wave function is imprecisely known. Similar methods can be used to maintain the variational lower bound on A. Since the bound is variational, the error in the calculated scattering length will be of second order in the error in the wave function. The use of the adiabatic approximation in the present context places no limitation in principle on the accuracy achievable
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Collins, A.L., E-mail: adrian.collins@adas.co.uk [ADAS, Pendeford House, Wobaston Road, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP (United Kingdom); Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Williams, L.J.; Zhang, Y.S. [ADAS, Pendeford House, Wobaston Road, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP (United Kingdom); Marius, M. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Dungait, J.A.J. [Department of Sustainable Systems and Grassland Science, Rothamsted Research—North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Smallman, D.J. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Dixon, E.R. [Department of Sustainable Systems and Grassland Science, Rothamsted Research—North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Stringfellow, A. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Sear, D.A. [Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Jones, J.I. [School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS (United Kingdom); Naden, P.S. [CEH Wallingford, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB (United Kingdom)
2013-07-01
The ingress of particulate material into freshwater spawning substrates is thought to be contributing to the declining success of salmonids reported over recent years for many rivers. Accordingly, the need for reliable information on the key sources of the sediment problem has progressed up the management agenda. Whilst previous work has focussed on apportioning the sources of minerogenic fine sediment degrading spawning habitats, there remains a need to develop procedures for generating corresponding information for the potentially harmful sediment-bound organic matter that represents an overlooked component of interstitial sediment. A source tracing procedure based on composite signatures combining bulk stable {sup 13}C and {sup 15}N isotope values with organic molecular structures detected using near infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy was therefore used to assess the primary sources of sediment-bound organic matter sampled from artificial spawning redds. Composite signatures were selected using a combination of the Kruskal–Wallis H-test, principal component analysis and GA-driven discriminant function analysis. Interstitial sediment samples were collected using time-integrating basket traps which were inserted at the start of the salmonid spawning season and extracted in conjunction with critical phases of fish development (eyeing, hatch, emergence, late spawning). Over the duration of these four basket extractions, the overall relative frequency-weighted average median (± 95% confidence limits) source contributions to the interstitial sediment-bound organic matter were estimated to be in the order: instream decaying vegetation (39 ± < 1%; full range 0–77%); damaged road verges (28 ± < 1%; full range 0–77%); septic tanks (22 ± < 1%; full range 0–50%), and; farm yard manures/slurries (11 ± < 1%; full range 0–61%). The reported procedure provides a promising basis for understanding the key sources of interstitial sediment-bound organic matter
Stacked spheres and lower bound theorem
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
BASUDEB DATTA
2011-11-20
Nov 20, 2011 ... Preliminaries. Lower bound theorem. On going work. Definitions. An n-simplex is a convex hull of n + 1 affinely independent points. (called vertices) in some Euclidean space R. N . Stacked spheres and lower bound theorem. Basudeb Datta. Indian Institute of Science. 2 / 27 ...
A strongly quasiconvex PAC-Bayesian bound
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thiemann, Niklas; Igel, Christian; Wintenberger, Olivier
2017-01-01
We propose a new PAC-Bayesian bound and a way of constructing a hypothesis space, so that the bound is convex in the posterior distribution and also convex in a trade-off parameter between empirical performance of the posterior distribution and its complexity. The complexity is measured by the Ku...
On the range of completely bounded maps
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard I. Loebl
1978-01-01
Full Text Available It is shown that if every bounded linear map from a C*-algebra α to a von Neumann algebra β is completely bounded, then either α is finite-dimensional or β⫅⊗Mn, where is a commutative von Neumann algebra and Mn is the algebra of n×n complex matrices.
Bounds in the location-allocation problem
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juel, Henrik
1981-01-01
Develops a family of stronger lower bounds on the objective function value of the location-allocation problem. Solution methods proposed to solve problems in location-allocation; Efforts to develop a more efficient bound solution procedure; Determination of the locations of the sources....
Experimental evidence for bounds on quantum correlations.
Bovino, F A; Castagnoli, G; Degiovanni, I P; Castelletto, S
2004-02-13
We implemented the experiment proposed by Cabello in the preceding Letter to test the bounds of quantum correlation. As expected from the theory we found that, for certain choices of local observables, Tsirelson's bound of the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality (2 x square root of 2) is not reached by any quantum states.
Exponential Lower Bounds For Policy Iteration
Fearnley, John
2010-01-01
We study policy iteration for infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. It has recently been shown policy iteration style algorithms have exponential lower bounds in a two player game setting. We extend these lower bounds to Markov decision processes with the total reward and average-reward optimality criteria.
Conductivity bound from dirty black holes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bitaghsir Fadafan, Kazem, E-mail: bitaghsir@shahroodut.ac.ir
2016-11-10
We propose a lower bound of the dc electrical conductivity in strongly disordered, strongly interacting quantum field theories using holography. We study linear response of black holes with broken translational symmetry in Einstein–Maxwell-dilaton theories of gravity. Using the generalized Stokes equations at the horizon, we derive the lower bound of the electrical conductivity for the dual two dimensional disordered field theory.
No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex
2014-01-01
We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...
Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki
2008-01-01
Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.
1991-01-01
Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)
Suncor maintenance and reliability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Little, S. [Suncor Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada)
2006-07-01
Fleet maintenance and reliability at Suncor Energy was discussed in this presentation, with reference to Suncor Energy's primary and support equipment fleets. This paper also discussed Suncor Energy's maintenance and reliability standard involving people, processes and technology. An organizational maturity chart that graphed organizational learning against organizational performance was illustrated. The presentation also reviewed the maintenance and reliability framework; maintenance reliability model; the process overview of the maintenance and reliability standard; a process flow chart of maintenance strategies and programs; and an asset reliability improvement process flow chart. An example of an improvement initiative was included, with reference to a shovel reliability review; a dipper trip reliability investigation; bucket related failures by type and frequency; root cause analysis of the reliability process; and additional actions taken. Last, the presentation provided a graph of the results of the improvement initiative and presented the key lessons learned. tabs., figs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost
2006-03-01
Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.
SHARP ENTRYWISE PERTURBATION BOUNDS FOR MARKOV CHAINS.
Thiede, Erik; VAN Koten, Brian; Weare, Jonathan
For many Markov chains of practical interest, the invariant distribution is extremely sensitive to perturbations of some entries of the transition matrix, but insensitive to others; we give an example of such a chain, motivated by a problem in computational statistical physics. We have derived perturbation bounds on the relative error of the invariant distribution that reveal these variations in sensitivity. Our bounds are sharp, we do not impose any structural assumptions on the transition matrix or on the perturbation, and computing the bounds has the same complexity as computing the invariant distribution or computing other bounds in the literature. Moreover, our bounds have a simple interpretation in terms of hitting times, which can be used to draw intuitive but rigorous conclusions about the sensitivity of a chain to various types of perturbations.
New bounds on isotropic Lorentz violation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carone, Christopher D.; Sher, Marc; Vanderhaeghen, Marc
2006-01-01
Violations of Lorentz invariance that appear via operators of dimension four or less are completely parametrized in the Standard Model Extension (SME). In the pure photonic sector of the SME, there are 19 dimensionless, Lorentz-violating parameters. Eighteen of these have experimental upper bounds ranging between 10 -11 and 10 -32 ; the remaining parameter, k-tilde tr , is isotropic and has a much weaker bound of order 10 -4 . In this Brief Report, we point out that k-tilde tr gives a significant contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the electron and find a new upper bound of order 10 -8 . With reasonable assumptions, we further show that this bound may be improved to 10 -14 by considering the renormalization of other Lorentz-violating parameters that are more tightly constrained. Using similar renormalization arguments, we also estimate bounds on Lorentz-violating parameters in the pure gluonic sector of QCD
Covariant entropy bound and loop quantum cosmology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ashtekar, Abhay; Wilson-Ewing, Edward
2008-01-01
We examine Bousso's covariant entropy bound conjecture in the context of radiation filled, spatially flat, Friedmann-Robertson-Walker models. The bound is violated near the big bang. However, the hope has been that quantum gravity effects would intervene and protect it. Loop quantum cosmology provides a near ideal setting for investigating this issue. For, on the one hand, quantum geometry effects resolve the singularity and, on the other hand, the wave function is sharply peaked at a quantum corrected but smooth geometry, which can supply the structure needed to test the bound. We find that the bound is respected. We suggest that the bound need not be an essential ingredient for a quantum gravity theory but may emerge from it under suitable circumstances.
Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L
2004-04-01
Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.
Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.
Koehn, Stefan
2013-01-01
Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wedad Mohammad Saleh Alkferi
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to detect the level of self-confidence among female students of Hail University, and whether there were significant differences at the level of the students' self-confidence attributed to the variables of age and specialization. The study sample, which was randomly selected, consisted of 802 students from various disciplines at the university (medicine, engineering, psychology, and Islamic culture enrolled for the second semester of the academic year (2015/2016. To achieve the objectives of the study a confidence Scale developed by Kawasmeh and Farah (1996. The scale was checked for its validity and reliability. The statistical package SPSS was used to extract the results. Results of the study revealed a low level of self-confidence for the students of the university, whereas there were no statistically significant differences due to the variables of age and specialization. Keywords: Self-confidence, Students of Hail University, Saudi Arabia, Some variables.
The Accelerator Reliability Forum
Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R
2014-01-01
A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.
Reliability in individual monitoring service.
Mod Ali, N
2011-03-01
As a laboratory certified to ISO 9001:2008 and accredited to ISO/IEC 17025, the Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL)-Nuclear Malaysia has incorporated an overall comprehensive system for technical and quality management in promoting a reliable individual monitoring service (IMS). Faster identification and resolution of issues regarding dosemeter preparation and issuing of reports, personnel enhancement, improved customer satisfaction and overall efficiency of laboratory activities are all results of the implementation of an effective quality system. Review of these measures and responses to observed trends provide continuous improvement of the system. By having these mechanisms, reliability of the IMS can be assured in the promotion of safe behaviour at all levels of the workforce utilising ionising radiation facilities. Upgradation of in the reporting program through a web-based e-SSDL marks a major improvement in Nuclear Malaysia's IMS reliability on the whole. The system is a vital step in providing a user friendly and effective occupational exposure evaluation program in the country. It provides a higher level of confidence in the results generated for occupational dose monitoring of the IMS, thus, enhances the status of the radiation protection framework of the country.
Human Reliability Program Overview
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bodin, Michael
2012-09-25
This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.
Power electronics reliability analysis.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley
2009-12-01
This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kopetz, H.
1980-01-01
Common factors and differences in the reliability of hardware and software; reliability increase by means of methods of software redundancy. Maintenance of software for long term operating behavior. (HP) [de
Reliability analysis of Diesel Generator power supply system of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sharma, Pramod Kumar, E-mail: pramodks@igcar.gov.in; Bhuvana, V.; Ramakrishnan, M.
2016-12-15
Highlights: • The unavailability of DG success is 4.75E−3 for 2/4 and 1.47E−3 for 1/4. • Modeling includes sub systems like CB, SSWS, Fuel oil system & 220 V DC. • DG-FR, DG-FR-CCF and DG maintenance is major contributors of DG unavailability. • Uncertainty analysis has been carried out through Monte Carlo simulations. • Sensitivity analysis identifies DG mechanical FR as most sensitive part. - Abstract: The unavailability of Diesel Generator power supply system has been evaluated using Fault tree method with ISOGRAPH reliability software and is found to be 4.75E−3 for 2/4 (DG success) and 1.47E−3 for 1/4 (DG success). Common cause failures contribute significantly to the unavailability of the system. Statistical analysis indicates that the DG unavailability is uncertain by Error Factor 4.4 (90% confidence bound) for 2 out of 4 DG system (system success) and by Error Factor 4.1 (90% confidence bound) for 1 out of 4 DG system (system success). Support systems namely Safety related service water system, Fuel oil system and circuit breaker control power supply dependency have been modeled. Results of importance analysis and sensitivity study are used to identify significant contributors to unavailability. DG fails to run, DG fails to run due to CCF and DG maintenance out of service is identified as dominant and important contributors of DG unavailability. Uncertainty analysis has been carried out through Monte Carlo simulations.
Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.
Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A
2018-02-01
Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.
Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.
Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina
2015-01-01
midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Human reliability analysis for venting a BWR Mark I during a severe accident
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nelson, W.R.; Blackman, H.S.
1986-01-01
A Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was performed for the operator actions necessary to achieve containment venting for the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This study was funded by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and performed by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The goal of the analysis was to estimate Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) to determine the likelihood that operators would fail to complete the venting process. The analysis was performed for two generic accident sequences: anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) and station blackout. Two major methods were used to estimate the HEPs: Technique for Human Error rate Prediction (THERP) and Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM). For the ATWS scenarios analyzed, the calculated HEPs ranged from 0.23 to 0.35, depending on the number of vent paths that are required to reduce the containment pressure. It should be noted that the confidence bounds around these HEPs are large, However, even when considering the large confidence range, the failure probabilities are larger than what is typical for normal operator actions. For station blackout, the HEP is 1.0, resulting from the dangerous environmental conditions that are present, assuming that plant management would not deliberately expose personnel to a potentially fatal environment. These results are based on the analysis of draft procedures for containment venting. It is probable that careful revision of the procedures could reduce the human error probabilities
Energies and bounds from perturbative approximations to the Bloch-Horowitz effective Hamiltonian
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Darema-Rogers, F.; Vincent, C.M.
1978-01-01
Bloch-Horowitz perturbation theory is applied to the calculation of approximate energies and model-space eigenvectors, for the solvable large-matrix Hamiltonian H used by Pittel, Vincent, and Vergados. Two types of upper and lower bounds to the energies are discussed: moment-theory bounds, obtained by applying moment theory to the terms of perturbation theory, and norm bounds, derived from the expectation E-bar and variance sigma 2 of H with respect to an eigenvector approximated by nth order perturbation theory (n < or = 6). It is shown that lower bounds cannot be constructed unless some fourth-order quantity is known. The upper bounds are generally stricter than the lower bounds. All of the bounds apply even when back-door intruder states cause perturbation theory to diverge; but they lose their rigor and become ''quasibounds'' when there are physical intruders. The moment-theory and norm lower quasibounds always require estimation of a parameter. For the solvable Hamiltonians, it is shown that this can be done quite reliably, and that the resulting quasibounds are tight enough to have some practical utility. The energy-independent effective interaction V is constructed and its errors are displayed and discussed. Finally, a certain [1/2] pseudo-Pade approximant is empirically shown to give energies with a mean absolute error of less than 0.3 MeV in all cases
Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth A.
2016-01-01
This presentation focuses on reliability and trust for the users portion of the FPGA design flow. It is assumed that the manufacturer prior to hand-off to the user tests FPGA internal components. The objective is to present the challenges of creating reliable and trusted designs. The following will be addressed: What makes a design vulnerable to functional flaws (reliability) or attackers (trust)? What are the challenges for verifying a reliable design versus a trusted design?
Psychometric properties of the Confidence and Trust in Delivery Questionnaire (CTDQ: a pilot study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeschke Elke
2012-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Assessing expecting mother’s opinions prior to birth draws a comprehensive picture for the caregivers about their emotional state and their expectations. Some questionnaires to cover these aspects do exist. This study aims to present the psychometric properties of a new instrument, the Confidence and Trust in Delivery Questionnaire (CDTQ a short but reliable a self-report instrument that focuses on confidence and trust as meaningful dimensions for expectant mothers. Methods A pilot validation study of 221 women 6 weeks before childbirth was conducted in Germany between October 2007 and June 2008. To detect structural relations between the items, factor and reliability analyses were applied to the CTDQ items. Factor analysis was performed by means of principal components analysis and varimax rotation. Internal reliability was assessed by Cronbach’s alpha. External validation was performed using the sense of coherence (SOC scale. Results The CTDQ comprises of 11 items. We found a 4-factor structure. The internal consistency of the whole item pool (Cronbach’s α = 0.79 and the 4 subscales [confidence in labor (α = 0.82; partner’s support (α = 0.62; trust in medical competency (α = 0.68; being informed (α = 0.60] can be regarded as sufficient or even excellent. The 4 factors explained 69.6% of total variance. Except for a high intercorrelation (0.70 between “partner’s support” and “trust in medical competence”, the subscales show low intercorrelations, indicating an adequate independence of the respective subscales. Regarding the external validity we found minor respective moderate correlations with the SOC scale. Conclusions Our data suggest that the CTDQ is a useful instrument to assess confidence and trust in delivery. With 4 clinically relevant dimensions, the CTDQ is now open for further studies in the field of labor.
Principles of Bridge Reliability
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, Andrzej S.
The paper gives a brief introduction to the basic principles of structural reliability theory and its application to bridge engineering. Fundamental concepts like failure probability and reliability index are introduced. Ultimate as well as serviceability limit states for bridges are formulated......, and as an example the reliability profile and a sensitivity analyses for a corroded reinforced concrete bridge is shown....
Reliability in engineering '87
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tuma, M.
1987-01-01
The participants heard 51 papers dealing with the reliability of engineering products. Two of the papers were incorporated in INIS, namely ''Reliability comparison of two designs of low pressure regeneration of the 1000 MW unit at the Temelin nuclear power plant'' and ''Use of probability analysis of reliability in designing nuclear power facilities.''(J.B.)
Continuous bounded cohomology of locally compact groups
2001-01-01
Recent research has repeatedly led to connections between important rigidity questions and bounded cohomology. However, the latter has remained by and large intractable. This monograph introduces the functorial study of the continuous bounded cohomology for topological groups, with coefficients in Banach modules. The powerful techniques of this more general theory have successfully solved a number of the original problems in bounded cohomology. As applications, one obtains, in particular, rigidity results for actions on the circle, for representations on complex hyperbolic spaces and on Teichmüller spaces. A special effort has been made to provide detailed proofs or references in quite some generality.
Positivity bounds on double parton distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diehl, Markus; Kasemets, Tomas
2013-03-01
Double hard scattering in proton-proton collisions is described in terms of double parton distributions. We derive bounds on these distributions that follow from their interpretation as probability densities, taking into account all possible spin correlations between two partons in an unpolarized proton. These bounds constrain the size of the polarized distributions and can for instance be used to set upper limits on the effects of spin correlations in double hard scattering. We show that the bounds are stable under leading-order DGLAP evolution to higher scales.
Remarks on Bousso's covariant entropy bound
Mayo, A E
2002-01-01
Bousso's covariant entropy bound is put to the test in the context of a non-singular cosmological solution of general relativity found by Bekenstein. Although the model complies with every assumption made in Bousso's original conjecture, the entropy bound is violated due to the occurrence of negative energy density associated with the interaction of some the matter components in the model. We demonstrate how this property allows for the test model to 'elude' a proof of Bousso's conjecture which was given recently by Flanagan, Marolf and Wald. This corroborates the view that the covariant entropy bound should be applied only to stable systems for which every matter component carries positive energy density.
The bound state problem and quark confinement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chaichian, M.; Demichev, A.P.; Nelipa, N.F.
1980-01-01
A quantum field-theoretic model in which quark is confined is considered. System of equations for the Green functions of colour singlet and octet bound states is obtained. The method is based on the nonperturbative Schwinger-Dyson equations with the use of Slavnov-Taylor identities. It is shown that in the framework of the model if there exist singlet, then also exist octet bound states of the quark-antiquark system. Thus in general, confinement of free quarks does not mean absence of their coloured bound states. (author)
Quasi-bound states in continuum
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakamura, Hiroaki; Hatano, Naomichi; Garmon, Sterling; Petrosky, Tomio
2007-08-01
We report the prediction of quasi-bound states (resonant states with very long lifetimes) that occur in the eigenvalue continuum of propagating states for a wide region of parameter space. These quasi-bound states are generated in a quantum wire with two channels and an adatom, when the energy bands of the two channels overlap. A would-be bound state that lays just below the upper energy band is slightly destabilized by the lower energy band and thereby becomes a resonant state with a very long lifetime (a second QBIC lays above the lower energy band). (author)
Integration of multiple biological features yields high confidence human protein interactome.
Karagoz, Kubra; Sevimoglu, Tuba; Arga, Kazim Yalcin
2016-08-21
The biological function of a protein is usually determined by its physical interaction with other proteins. Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are identified through various experimental methods and are stored in curated databases. The noisiness of the existing PPI data is evident, and it is essential that a more reliable data is generated. Furthermore, the selection of a set of PPIs at different confidence levels might be necessary for many studies. Although different methodologies were introduced to evaluate the confidence scores for binary interactions, a highly reliable, almost complete PPI network of Homo sapiens is not proposed yet. The quality and coverage of human protein interactome need to be improved to be used in various disciplines, especially in biomedicine. In the present work, we propose an unsupervised statistical approach to assign confidence scores to PPIs of H. sapiens. To achieve this goal PPI data from six different databases were collected and a total of 295,288 non-redundant interactions between 15,950 proteins were acquired. The present scoring system included the context information that was assigned to PPIs derived from eight biological attributes. A high confidence network, which included 147,923 binary interactions between 13,213 proteins, had scores greater than the cutoff value of 0.80, for which sensitivity, specificity, and coverage were 94.5%, 80.9%, and 82.8%, respectively. We compared the present scoring method with others for evaluation. Reducing the noise inherent in experimental PPIs via our scoring scheme increased the accuracy significantly. As it was demonstrated through the assessment of process and cancer subnetworks, this study allows researchers to construct and analyze context-specific networks via valid PPI sets and one can easily achieve subnetworks around proteins of interest at a specified confidence level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.
Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken
2004-04-01
The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.
Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?
Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam
2014-01-01
While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...
Wear, L L; Pinkert, J R
1993-11-01
In this article, we looked at some decisions that apply to the design of reliable computer systems. We began with a discussion of several terms such as testability, then described some systems that call for highly reliable hardware and software. The article concluded with a discussion of methods that can be used to achieve higher reliability in computer systems. Reliability and fault tolerance in computers probably will continue to grow in importance. As more and more systems are computerized, people will want assurances about the reliability of these systems, and their ability to work properly even when sub-systems fail.
Human factor reliability program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knoblochova, L.
2017-01-01
The human factor's reliability program was at Slovenske elektrarne, a.s. (SE) nuclear power plants. introduced as one of the components Initiatives of Excellent Performance in 2011. The initiative's goal was to increase the reliability of both people and facilities, in response to 3 major areas of improvement - Need for improvement of the results, Troubleshooting support, Supporting the achievement of the company's goals. The human agent's reliability program is in practice included: - Tools to prevent human error; - Managerial observation and coaching; - Human factor analysis; -Quick information about the event with a human agent; -Human reliability timeline and performance indicators; - Basic, periodic and extraordinary training in human factor reliability(authors)
Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.
Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A
2002-01-01
To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.
The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.
Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu
2011-01-01
This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.
Tight Bounds for Distributed Functional Monitoring
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Woodruff, David P.; Zhang, Qin
2011-01-01
$, our bound resolves their main open question. Our lower bounds are based on new direct sum theorems for approximate majority, and yield significant improvements to problems in the data stream model, improving the bound for estimating $F_p, p > 2,$ in $t$ passes from $\\tilde{\\Omega}(n^{1-2/p}/(\\eps^{2/p......} t))$ to $\\tilde{\\Omega}(n^{1-2/p}/(\\eps^{4/p} t))$, giving the first bound for estimating $F_0$ in $t$ passes of $\\Omega(1/(\\eps^2 t))$ bits of space that does not use the gap-hamming problem, and showing a distribution for the gap-hamming problem with high external information cost or super...
Redshift-space limits of bound structures
Duenner, Rolando; Reisenegger, Andreas; Meza, Andres; Araya, Pablo A.; Quintana, Hernan
2007-01-01
An exponentially expanding Universe, possibly governed by a cosmological constant, forces gravitationally bound structures to become more and more isolated, eventually becoming causally disconnected from each other and forming so-called 'island universes'. This new scenario reformulates the question
Liu, Fang
2016-01-01
In both clinical development and post-marketing of a new therapy or a new treatment, incidence of an adverse event (AE) is always a concern. When sample sizes are small, large sample-based inferential approaches on an AE incidence proportion in a certain time period no longer apply. In this brief discussion, we introduce a simple Bayesian framework to quantify, in small sample studies and the rare AE case, (1) the confidence level that the incidence proportion of a particular AE p is over or below a threshold, (2) the lower or upper bounds on p with a certain level of confidence, and (3) the minimum required number of patients with an AE before we can be certain that p surpasses a specific threshold, or the maximum allowable number of patients with an AE after which we can no longer be certain that p is below a certain threshold, given a certain confidence level. The method is easy to understand and implement; the interpretation of the results is intuitive. This article also demonstrates the usefulness of simple Bayesian concepts when it comes to answering practical questions.
Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.
Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L; Balleteros, Francisco
2016-12-07
Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Shilane
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.
Error Bounds: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Outrata, Jiří; Kruger, A.Y.; Fabian, Marián; Henrion, R.
2010-01-01
Roč. 18, č. 2 (2010), s. 121-149 ISSN 1877-0533 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100750802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506; CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : Error bounds * Calmness * Subdifferential * Slope Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.333, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/MTR/outrata-error bounds necessary and sufficient conditions.pdf
Malabsorption of protein bound vitamin B12.
Dawson, D W; Sawers, A H; Sharma, R K
1984-01-01
Patients with subnormal serum vitamin B12 concentrations were tested for absorption of protein bound vitamin B12 and compared with controls. Absorption of the protein bound vitamin appeared to decrease with increasing age in healthy subjects. Differences between the result of this test and the result of the Schilling test in patients who had undergone gastric surgery were confirmed; such differences were also seen in some patients who had iron deficiency anaemia, an excessive alcohol intake, ...
New Spectral Features from Bound Dark Matter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Catena, Riccardo; Kouvaris, Chris
2016-01-01
We demonstrate that dark matter particles gravitationally bound to the Earth can induce a characteristic nuclear recoil signal at low energies in direct detection experiments. The new spectral feature we predict can provide the ultimate smoking gun for dark matter discovery for experiments...... with positive signal but unclear background. The new feature is universal, in that the ratio of bound over halo dark matter event rates at detectors is independent of the dark matter-nucleon cross section....
Automatic bounding estimation in modified NLMS algorithm
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shahtalebi, K.; Doost-Hoseini, A.M.
2002-01-01
Modified Normalized Least Mean Square algorithm, which is a sign form of Nlm based on set-membership (S M) theory in the class of optimal bounding ellipsoid (OBE) algorithms, requires a priori knowledge of error bounds that is unknown in most applications. In a special but popular case of measurement noise, a simple algorithm has been proposed. With some simulation examples the performance of algorithm is compared with Modified Normalized Least Mean Square
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iwi, G.; Millard, R.K.; Palmer, A.M.; Preece, A.W.; Saunders, M.
1999-01-01
Bootstrap resampling provides a versatile and reliable statistical method for estimating the accuracy of quantities which are calculated from experimental data. It is an empirically based method, in which large numbers of simulated datasets are generated by computer from existing measurements, so that approximate confidence intervals of the derived quantities may be obtained by direct numerical evaluation. A simple introduction to the method is given via a detailed example of estimating 95% confidence intervals for cumulated activity in the thyroid following injection of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate using activity-time data from 23 subjects. The application of the approach to estimating confidence limits for the self-dose to the kidney following injection of 99m Tc-DTPA organ imaging agent based on uptake data from 19 subjects is also illustrated. Results are then given for estimates of doses to the foetus following administration of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate for clinical reasons during pregnancy, averaged over 25 subjects. The bootstrap method is well suited for applications in radiation dosimetry including uncertainty, reliability and sensitivity analysis of dose coefficients in biokinetic models, but it can also be applied in a wide range of other biomedical situations. (author)
Nguyen, Van N B; Forbes, Helen; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Duke, Maxine
2017-12-01
Teaching nursing in clinical environments is considered complex and multi-faceted. Little is known about the role of the clinical nurse educator, specifically the challenges related to transition from clinician, or in some cases, from newly-graduated nurse to that of clinical nurse educator, as occurs in developing countries. Confidence in the clinical educator role has been associated with successful transition and the development of role competence. There is currently no valid and reliable instrument to measure clinical nurse educator confidence. This study was conducted to develop and psychometrically test an instrument to measure perceived confidence among clinical nurse educators. A multi-phase, multi-setting survey design was used. A total of 468 surveys were distributed, and 363 were returned. Data were analyzed using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. The instrument was successfully tested and modified in phase 1, and factorial validity was subsequently confirmed in phase 2. There was strong evidence of internal consistency, reliability, content, and convergent validity of the Clinical Nurse Educator Skill Acquisition Assessment instrument. The resulting instrument is applicable in similar contexts due to its rigorous development and validation process. © 2017 The Authors. Nursing & Health Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
Hybridization thermodynamics of DNA bound to gold nanoparticles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lang, Brian
2010-01-01
Isothermal Titration Calorimetry (ITC) was used to study the thermodynamics of hybridization on DNA-functionalized colloidal gold nanoparticles. When compared to the thermodynamics of hybridization of DNA that is free in solution, the differences in the values of the Gibbs free energy of reaction, Δ r G o , the enthalpy, Δ r H o , and entropy, Δ r S o , were small. The change in Δ r G o between the free and bound states was always positive but with statistical significance outside the 95% confidence interval, implying the free DNA is slightly more stable than when in the bound state. Additionally, ITC was also able to reveal information about the binding stoichiometry of the hybridization reactions on the DNA-functionalized gold nanoparticles, and indicates that there is a significant fraction of the DNA on gold nanoparticle surface that is unavailable for DNA hybridization. Furthermore, the fraction of available DNA is dependent on the spacer group on the DNA that is used to span the gold surface from that to the probe DNA.
Determination of a lower bound on Earth's climate sensitivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
STEPHEN E. Schwartz
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Transient and equilibrium sensitivity of Earth's climate has been calculated using global temperature, forcing and heating rate data for the period 1970–2010. We have assumed increased long-wave radiative forcing in the period due to the increase of the long-lived greenhouse gases. By assuming the change in aerosol forcing in the period to be zero, we calculate what we consider to be lower bounds to these sensitivities, as the magnitude of the negative aerosol forcing is unlikely to have diminished in this period. The radiation imbalance necessary to calculate equilibrium sensitivity is estimated from the rate of ocean heat accumulation as 0.37±0.03 W m−2 (all uncertainty estimates are 1−σ. With these data, we obtain best estimates for transient climate sensitivity 0.39±0.07 K (W m−2−1 and equilibrium climate sensitivity 0.54±0.14 K (W m−2−1, equivalent to 1.5±0.3 and 2.0±0.5 K (3.7 W m−2−1, respectively. The latter quantity is equal to the lower bound of the ‘likely’ range for this quantity given by the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report. The uncertainty attached to the lower-bound equilibrium sensitivity permits us to state, within the assumptions of this analysis, that the equilibrium sensitivity is greater than 0.31 K (W m−2−1, equivalent to 1.16 K (3.7 W m−2−1, at the 95% confidence level.
Absolute Lower Bound on the Bounce Action
Sato, Ryosuke; Takimoto, Masahiro
2018-03-01
The decay rate of a false vacuum is determined by the minimal action solution of the tunneling field: bounce. In this Letter, we focus on models with scalar fields which have a canonical kinetic term in N (>2 ) dimensional Euclidean space, and derive an absolute lower bound on the bounce action. In the case of four-dimensional space, we show the bounce action is generically larger than 24 /λcr, where λcr≡max [-4 V (ϕ )/|ϕ |4] with the false vacuum being at ϕ =0 and V (0 )=0 . We derive this bound on the bounce action without solving the equation of motion explicitly. Our bound is derived by a quite simple discussion, and it provides useful information even if it is difficult to obtain the explicit form of the bounce solution. Our bound offers a sufficient condition for the stability of a false vacuum, and it is useful as a quick check on the vacuum stability for given models. Our bound can be applied to a broad class of scalar potential with any number of scalar fields. We also discuss a necessary condition for the bounce action taking a value close to this lower bound.
Generalized surface tension bounds in vacuum decay
Masoumi, Ali; Paban, Sonia; Weinberg, Erick J.
2018-02-01
Coleman and De Luccia (CDL) showed that gravitational effects can prevent the decay by bubble nucleation of a Minkowski or AdS false vacuum. In their thin-wall approximation this happens whenever the surface tension in the bubble wall exceeds an upper bound proportional to the difference of the square roots of the true and false vacuum energy densities. Recently it was shown that there is another type of thin-wall regime that differs from that of CDL in that the radius of curvature grows substantially as one moves through the wall. Not only does the CDL derivation of the bound fail in this case, but also its very formulation becomes ambiguous because the surface tension is not well defined. We propose a definition of the surface tension and show that it obeys a bound similar in form to that of the CDL case. We then show that both thin-wall bounds are special cases of a more general bound that is satisfied for all bounce solutions with Minkowski or AdS false vacua. We discuss the limit where the parameters of the theory attain critical values and the bound is saturated. The bounce solution then disappears and a static planar domain wall solution appears in its stead. The scalar field potential then is of the form expected in supergravity, but this is only guaranteed along the trajectory in field space traced out by the bounce.
Reliability and Failure Modes of a Hybrid Ceramic Abutment Prototype.
Silva, Nelson Rfa; Teixeira, Hellen S; Silveira, Lucas M; Bonfante, Estevam A; Coelho, Paulo G; Thompson, Van P
2018-01-01
A ceramic and metal abutment prototype was fatigue tested to determine the probability of survival at various loads. Lithium disilicate CAD-milled abutments (n = 24) were cemented to titanium sleeve inserts and then screw attached to titanium fixtures. The assembly was then embedded at a 30° angle in polymethylmethacrylate. Each (n = 24) was restored with a resin-cemented machined lithium disilicate all-ceramic central incisor crown. Single load (lingual-incisal contact) to failure was determined for three specimens. Fatigue testing (n = 21) was conducted employing the step-stress method with lingual mouth motion loading. Failures were recorded, and reliability calculations were performed using proprietary software. Probability Weibull curves were calculated with 90% confidence bounds. Fracture modes were classified with a stereomicroscope, and representative samples imaged with scanning electron microscopy. Fatigue results indicated that the limiting factor in the current design is the fatigue strength of the abutment screw, where screw fracture often leads to failure of the abutment metal sleeve and/or cracking in the implant fixture. Reliability for completion of a mission at 200 N load for 50K cycles was 0.38 (0.52% to 0.25 90% CI) and for 100K cycles was only 0.12 (0.26 to 0.05)-only 12% predicted to survive. These results are similar to those from previous studies on metal to metal abutment/fixture systems where screw failure is a limitation. No ceramic crown or ceramic abutment initiated fractures occurred, supporting the research hypothesis. The limiting factor in performance was the screw failure in the metal-to-metal connection between the prototyped abutment and the fixture, indicating that this configuration should function clinically with no abutment ceramic complications. The combined ceramic with titanium sleeve abutment prototype performance was limited by the fatigue degradation of the abutment screw. In fatigue, no ceramic crown or ceramic
Baxter, Rebecca; Edvardsson, David
2018-06-01
Postgraduate education is said to support the development of nurses' professional competence and confidence, essential to the delivery of safe and effective care. However, there is a shortness of empirical evidence to demonstrate an increase to nurses' self-reported confidence and competence on completion of critical care postgraduate certificate-level education. To explore the impact of a critical care postgraduate certificate course on nurses' self-reported competence and confidence. To explore the psychometric properties and performance of the Critical Care Competence and Confidence Questionnaire. A quasi-experimental pre/post-test design. A total population sample of nurses completing a critical care postgraduate certificate course at an Australian University. The Critical Care Competence and Confidence Questionnaire was developed for this study to measure nurses' self-reported competence and confidence at baseline and follow up. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to explore sample characteristics and changes between baseline and follow-up. Reliability of the questionnaire was explored using Cronbach's Alpha and item-total correlations. There was a statistically significant increase in competence and confidence between baseline and follow-up across all questionnaire domains. Satisfactory reliability estimates were found for the questionnaire. Completion of a critical care postgraduate certificate course significantly increased nurses' perceived competence and confidence. The Critical Care Competence and Confidence Questionnaire was found to be psychometrically sound for measuring nurses' self-reported competence and confidence. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Increasing Confidence and Ability in Implementing Kangaroo Mother Care Method Among Young Mothers.
Kenanga Purbasary, Eleni; Rustina, Yeni; Budiarti, Tri
Mothers giving birth to low birth weight babies (LBWBs) have low confidence in caring for their babies because they are often still young and may lack the knowledge, experience, and ability to care for the baby. This research aims to determine the effect of education about kangaroo mother care (KMC) on the confidence and ability of young mothers to implement KMC. The research methodology used was a controlled-random experimental approach with pre- and post-test equivalent groups of 13 mothers and their LBWBs in the intervention group and 13 mothers and their LBWBs in the control group. Data were collected via an instrument measuring young mothers' confidence, the validity and reliability of which have been tested with a resulting r value of .941, and an observation sheet on KMC implementation. After conducting the education, the confidence score of young mothers and their ability to perform KMC increased meaningfully. The score of confidence of young mothers before education was 37 (p = .1555: and the ability score for KMC Implementation before education was 9 (p = .1555). The median score of confidence of young mothers after education in the intervention group was 87 and in the control group was 50 (p = .001, 95% CI 60.36-75.56), and ability median score for KMC implementation after education in the intervention group was 16 and in the control group was 12 (p = .001, 95% CI 1.50-1.88). KMC education should be conducted gradually, and it is necessary to involve the family, in order for KMC implementation to continue at home. A family visit can be done for LBWBs to evaluate the ability of the young mothers to implement KMC.
Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago
2008-04-02
A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.
Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?
M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)
2012-01-01
textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this
Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.
Earle, Timothy C
2009-06-01
The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.
True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments
Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.
2015-01-01
Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…
The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory
Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina
2012-01-01
The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…
Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions
Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon
2012-01-01
Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…
A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food
Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.
2008-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,
Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?
Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei
2012-01-01
The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…
Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study
Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.
2004-01-01
Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor
Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory
Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.
2009-01-01
A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…
Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence
Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri
2013-01-01
How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of
To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...
Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sandra Buratti
2012-09-01
Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.
On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.
Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas
2018-02-01
Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression
Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.
2012-01-01
Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.
An upper and lower bound of the Medication Possession Ratio
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sperber CM
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Christian M Sperber, Suren R Samarasinghe, Grace P Lomax Patient Connect Limited, Guildford, UK Background: The Medication Possession Ratio (MPR is a ubiquitous and central measurement for adherence in the health care industry. However, attempts to standardize its calculation have failed, possibly due to the opacity of a single, static MPR, incapability of directly lending itself to a variety of studies, and challenges of comparing the value across studies. This work shows that the MPR strictly depends on the length of the time interval over which it is measured as well as on the dominant dispense quantity for short time intervals. Furthermore, removing a proportion of the patient cohort based on the number of acquisitions may also have a severe impact on the MPR. Therefore, it is suggested that the MPR is represented as a trend over a range of time intervals. To this end, an upper and lower bound of the MPR trend is developed with an upper bound acknowledging patients who change their treatment and the lower bound acknowledging patients who discontinue their treatment.Purpose: Introducing a representation of the MPR value as a trend rather than a static number by developing a quantitative description of an upper and lower bound of the MPR trend, while shedding light on the impacts on prefiltering the patient cohort.Patients and methods: Anonymized patient-level data was utilized as an example for a suggested calculation of an upper and lower bound of the MPR.Results: Representation of the MPR for a predefined time interval precludes a reliable MPR assessment. A quantitative approach is suggested to generate an upper and lower trend of the MPR while emphasizing the impact on removing patients with a limited number of acquisitions.Conclusion: An upper and lower trend makes the MPR more transparent and allows a better comparison across different studies. Removing patients with a limited number of acquisitions should be avoided. Keywords: MPR
Availability, reliability and downtime of systems with repairable components
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kiureghian, Armen Der; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Song, J.
2007-01-01
Closed-form expressions are derived for the steady-state availability, mean rate of failure, mean duration of downtime and lower bound reliability of a general system with randomly and independently failing repairable components. Component failures are assumed to be homogeneous Poisson events in ...
Bayesian nonparametric system reliability using sets of priors
Walter, G.M.; Aslett, L.J.M.; Coolen, F.P.A.
2016-01-01
An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through bounds on the functioning probability. Given component level test
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harbitz, O.; Isaksson, R.
2006-01-01
The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. The following list contains thoughts related to restoring lost confidence: - hard, long lasting event; - strategy: maximum transparency; - to listen, be open, give phone numbers etc. - ways to rebuild trust: frequent communication, being there, open and transparent; - don't be too defensive; if things could be done better, say it; - technical staff and public affair staff together from the beginning - answer all questions; - classifications, actions, instructions that differ much from the earlier ones must be well explained and motivated - and still cause a lot of problems; - things may turn out to be political; - communicative work in an early stage saves work later; - communication experts must be working shoulder to shoulder with other staff; On handling emergencies in general, some recipes proposed are: - better to over react than to under react; - do not avoid extreme actions: hit hard, hit fast; - base your decisions in strict principles; - first principle: public safety first; - when you are realizing plant A, you must have a plant B in your pocket: - be transparent - from the beginning; - crisis communication: early, frequent etc - people need to see political leaders, someone who is making decisions - technical experts are needed but are not enough. On how to involve stakeholders and the public in decision making, recommendations are: - new kind of thinking -. demanding for a organisation; - go to local level, meet local people, speak language people understand, you have to start from the very beginning - introducing yourself tell who you are and why you are there. (authors)
Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.
Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R
2015-08-01
Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.
Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.
Neerland, Carrie E
2018-06-06
Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dougherty, E.M.; Fragola, J.R.
1988-01-01
The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach
Reliability of electronic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roca, Jose L.
2001-01-01
Reliability techniques have been developed subsequently as a need of the diverse engineering disciplines, nevertheless they are not few those that think they have been work a lot on reliability before the same word was used in the current context. Military, space and nuclear industries were the first ones that have been involved in this topic, however not only in these environments it is that it has been carried out this small great revolution in benefit of the increase of the reliability figures of the products of those industries, but rather it has extended to the whole industry. The fact of the massive production, characteristic of the current industries, drove four decades ago, to the fall of the reliability of its products, on one hand, because the massively itself and, for other, to the recently discovered and even not stabilized industrial techniques. Industry should be changed according to those two new requirements, creating products of medium complexity and assuring an enough reliability appropriated to production costs and controls. Reliability began to be integral part of the manufactured product. Facing this philosophy, the book describes reliability techniques applied to electronics systems and provides a coherent and rigorous framework for these diverse activities providing a unifying scientific basis for the entire subject. It consists of eight chapters plus a lot of statistical tables and an extensive annotated bibliography. Chapters embrace the following topics: 1- Introduction to Reliability; 2- Basic Mathematical Concepts; 3- Catastrophic Failure Models; 4-Parametric Failure Models; 5- Systems Reliability; 6- Reliability in Design and Project; 7- Reliability Tests; 8- Software Reliability. This book is in Spanish language and has a potentially diverse audience as a text book from academic to industrial courses. (author)
Sun, Wei; Chou, Chih-Ping; Stacy, Alan W; Ma, Huiyan; Unger, Jennifer; Gallaher, Peggy
2007-02-01
Cronbach's a is widely used in social science research to estimate the internal consistency of reliability of a measurement scale. However, when items are not strictly parallel, the Cronbach's a coefficient provides a lower-bound estimate of true reliability, and this estimate may be further biased downward when items are dichotomous. The estimation of standardized Cronbach's a for a scale with dichotomous items can be improved by using the upper bound of coefficient phi. SAS and SPSS macros have been developed in this article to obtain standardized Cronbach's a via this method. The simulation analysis showed that Cronbach's a from upper-bound phi might be appropriate for estimating the real reliability when standardized Cronbach's a is problematic.
Cytoskeleton and Cytoskeleton-Bound RNA Visualization in Frog and Insect Oocytes.
Kloc, Malgorzata; Bilinski, Szczepan; Kubiak, Jacek Z
2016-01-01
The majority of oocyte functions involves and depends on the cytoskeletal elements, which include microtubules and actin and cytokeratin filaments. Various structures and molecules are temporarily or permanently bound to the cytoskeletal elements and their functions rely on cytoskeleton integrity and its timely assembly. Thus the accurate visualization of cytoskeleton is often crucial for studies and analyses of oocyte structure and functions. Here we describe several reliable methods for microtubule and/or microfilaments preservation and visualization in Xenopus oocyte extracts, and in situ in live and fixed insect and frog (Xenopus) oocytes. In addition, we describe visualization of cytoskeleton-bound RNAs using molecular beacons in live Xenopus oocytes.
Upper bounds on superpartner masses from upper bounds on the Higgs boson mass.
Cabrera, M E; Casas, J A; Delgado, A
2012-01-13
The LHC is putting bounds on the Higgs boson mass. In this Letter we use those bounds to constrain the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) parameter space using the fact that, in supersymmetry, the Higgs mass is a function of the masses of sparticles, and therefore an upper bound on the Higgs mass translates into an upper bound for the masses for superpartners. We show that, although current bounds do not constrain the MSSM parameter space from above, once the Higgs mass bound improves big regions of this parameter space will be excluded, putting upper bounds on supersymmetry (SUSY) masses. On the other hand, for the case of split-SUSY we show that, for moderate or large tanβ, the present bounds on the Higgs mass imply that the common mass for scalars cannot be greater than 10(11) GeV. We show how these bounds will evolve as LHC continues to improve the limits on the Higgs mass.
Smadi, Mahmoud A.
2012-12-06
In this paper, we derived an efficient simulation method to evaluate the error rate of wireless communication system. Coherent binary phase-shift keying system is considered with imperfect channel phase recovery. The results presented demonstrate the system performance under very realistic Nakagami-m fading and additive white Gaussian noise channel. On the other hand, the accuracy of the obtained results is verified through running the simulation under a good confidence interval reliability of 95 %. We see that as the number of simulation runs N increases, the simulated error rate becomes closer to the actual one and the confidence interval difference reduces. Hence our results are expected to be of significant practical use for such scenarios. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
A high confidence, manually validated human blood plasma protein reference set
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schenk, Susann; Schoenhals, Gary J; de Souza, Gustavo
2008-01-01
BACKGROUND: The immense diagnostic potential of human plasma has prompted great interest and effort in cataloging its contents, exemplified by the Human Proteome Organization (HUPO) Plasma Proteome Project (PPP) pilot project. Due to challenges in obtaining a reliable blood plasma protein list......-trap-Fourier transform (LTQ-FT) and a linear ion trap-Orbitrap (LTQ-Orbitrap) for mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. Both instruments allow the measurement of peptide masses in the low ppm range. Furthermore, we employed a statistical score that allows database peptide identification searching using the products of two...... consecutive stages of tandem mass spectrometry (MS3). The combination of MS3 with very high mass accuracy in the parent peptide allows peptide identification with orders of magnitude more confidence than that typically achieved. RESULTS: Herein we established a high confidence set of 697 blood plasma proteins...
Operational safety reliability research
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, R.E.; Boccio, J.L.
1986-01-01
Operating reactor events such as the TMI accident and the Salem automatic-trip failures raised the concern that during a plant's operating lifetime the reliability of systems could degrade from the design level that was considered in the licensing process. To address this concern, NRC is sponsoring the Operational Safety Reliability Research project. The objectives of this project are to identify the essential tasks of a reliability program and to evaluate the effectiveness and attributes of such a reliability program applicable to maintaining an acceptable level of safety during the operating lifetime at the plant
Circuit design for reliability
Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson
2015-01-01
This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units. The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.
Bounds on poloidal kinetic energy in plane layer convection
Tilgner, A.
2017-12-01
A numerical method is presented that conveniently computes upper bounds on heat transport and poloidal energy in plane layer convection for infinite and finite Prandtl numbers. The bounds obtained for the heat transport coincide with earlier results. These bounds imply upper bounds for the poloidal energy, which follow directly from the definitions of dissipation and energy. The same constraints used for computing upper bounds on the heat transport lead to improved bounds for the poloidal energy.
Bounds for nonlinear composites via iterated homogenization
Ponte Castañeda, P.
2012-09-01
Improved estimates of the Hashin-Shtrikman-Willis type are generated for the class of nonlinear composites consisting of two well-ordered, isotropic phases distributed randomly with prescribed two-point correlations, as determined by the H-measure of the microstructure. For this purpose, a novel strategy for generating bounds has been developed utilizing iterated homogenization. The general idea is to make use of bounds that may be available for composite materials in the limit when the concentration of one of the phases (say phase 1) is small. It then follows from the theory of iterated homogenization that it is possible, under certain conditions, to obtain bounds for more general values of the concentration, by gradually adding small amounts of phase 1 in incremental fashion, and sequentially using the available dilute-concentration estimate, up to the final (finite) value of the concentration (of phase 1). Such an approach can also be useful when available bounds are expected to be tighter for certain ranges of the phase volume fractions. This is the case, for example, for the "linear comparison" bounds for porous viscoplastic materials, which are known to be comparatively tighter for large values of the porosity. In this case, the new bounds obtained by the above-mentioned "iterated" procedure can be shown to be much improved relative to the earlier "linear comparison" bounds, especially at low values of the porosity and high triaxialities. Consistent with the way in which they have been derived, the new estimates are, strictly, bounds only for the class of multi-scale, nonlinear composites consisting of two well-ordered, isotropic phases that are distributed with prescribed H-measure at each stage in the incremental process. However, given the facts that the H-measure of the sequential microstructures is conserved (so that the final microstructures can be shown to have the same H-measure), and that H-measures are insensitive to length scales, it is conjectured
Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics
Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy
2008-09-01
This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.
Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.
Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N
2017-11-01
Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.
Thermalization Time Bounds for Pauli Stabilizer Hamiltonians
Temme, Kristan
2017-03-01
We prove a general lower bound to the spectral gap of the Davies generator for Hamiltonians that can be written as the sum of commuting Pauli operators. These Hamiltonians, defined on the Hilbert space of N-qubits, serve as one of the most frequently considered candidates for a self-correcting quantum memory. A spectral gap bound on the Davies generator establishes an upper limit on the life time of such a quantum memory and can be used to estimate the time until the system relaxes to thermal equilibrium when brought into contact with a thermal heat bath. The bound can be shown to behave as {λ ≥ O(N^{-1} exp(-2β overline{ɛ}))}, where {overline{ɛ}} is a generalization of the well known energy barrier for logical operators. Particularly in the low temperature regime we expect this bound to provide the correct asymptotic scaling of the gap with the system size up to a factor of N -1. Furthermore, we discuss conditions and provide scenarios where this factor can be removed and a constant lower bound can be proven.
Universal bounds in even-spin CFTs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Qualls, Joshua D. [Department of Physics, National Taiwan University,Taipei, Taiwan (China)
2015-12-01
We prove using invariance under the modular S− and ST−transformations that every unitary two-dimensional conformal field theory (CFT) having only even-spin primary operators (with no extended chiral algebra and with right- and left-central charges c,c̃>1) contains a primary operator with dimension Δ{sub 1} satisfying 0<Δ{sub 1}<((c+c̃)/24)+0.09280…. After deriving both analytical and numerical bounds, we discuss how to extend our methods to bound higher conformal dimensions before deriving lower and upper bounds on the number of primary operators in a given energy range. Using the AdS{sub 3}/CFT{sub 2} dictionary, the bound on Δ{sub 1} proves the lightest massive excitation in appropriate theories of 3D matter and gravity with cosmological constant Λ<0 can be no heavier than 1/8G{sub N}+O(√(−Λ)); the bounds on the number of operators are related via AdS/CFT to the entropy of states in the dual gravitational theory. In the flat-space approximation, the limiting mass is exactly that of the lightest BTZ black hole.
Measurement of organically bound tritium in urine and feces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trivedi, A.; Duong, T.; Leon, J.W.; Linauskas, S.H.
1993-11-01
A bioassay method was developed for directly measuring organically bound tritium (OBT) in urine and feces. Samples first undergo low-temperature distillation and vacuum separation to isolate tritiated water (HTO) and exchangeable tritium. This is followed by converting the non-exchangeable tritium (i.e., OBT) into HTO through oxygen combustion. The method was investigated to: optimise the sample preparation procedures; establish OBT recovery (64% ± 7% for urine and 71% ± 8% for feces); and, determine the detection limit for OBT in urine (0.3 Bq · g -1 ) and feces (5 Bq · g -1 ). The method was evaluated for error sources that are associated with the exchange between HTO and OBT. It is concluded that this bioassay method can reliably measure OBT in urine and feces within the range of ± 10%
Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christof Schwenkel
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public
Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.
Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix
2017-01-01
Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering
1996-12-31
This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in
QA support for TFTR reliability improvement program in preparation for DT operation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parsells, R.F.; Howard, H.P.
1987-01-01
As TFTR approaches experiments in the Q=1 regime, machine reliability becomes a major variable in achieving experimental objectives. This paper describes the methods used to quantify current reliability levels, levels required for D-T operations, proposed methods for reliability growth and improvement, and tracking of reliability performance in that growth. Included in this scope are data collection techniques and short comings, bounding current reliability on the upper end, and requirements for D-T operations. Problem characterization through Pareto diagrams provides insight into recurrent failure modes and the use of Duane plots for charting of reliability changes both cumulative and instantaneous, is explained and demonstrated
Characteristics and application study of AP1000 NPPs equipment reliability classification method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guan Gao
2013-01-01
AP1000 nuclear power plant applies an integrated approach to establish equipment reliability classification, which includes probabilistic risk assessment technique, maintenance rule administrative, power production reliability classification and functional equipment group bounding method, and eventually classify equipment reliability into 4 levels. This classification process and result are very different from classical RCM and streamlined RCM. It studied the characteristic of AP1000 equipment reliability classification approach, considered that equipment reliability classification should effectively support maintenance strategy development and work process control, recommended to use a combined RCM method to establish the future equipment reliability program of AP1000 nuclear power plants. (authors)
Hawaii Electric System Reliability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Loose, Verne William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2012-08-01
This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.
Hawaii electric system reliability.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William
2012-09-01
This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.
Improving machinery reliability
Bloch, Heinz P
1998-01-01
This totally revised, updated and expanded edition provides proven techniques and procedures that extend machinery life, reduce maintenance costs, and achieve optimum machinery reliability. This essential text clearly describes the reliability improvement and failure avoidance steps practiced by best-of-class process plants in the U.S. and Europe.
Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.
2011-01-01
This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific
Integrated system reliability analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
Specific targets: 1) The report shall describe the state of the art of reliability and risk-based assessment of wind turbine components. 2) Development of methodology for reliability and risk-based assessment of the wind turbine at system level. 3) Describe quantitative and qualitative measures...
Reliability of neural encoding
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Alstrøm, Preben; Beierholm, Ulrik; Nielsen, Carsten Dahl
2002-01-01
The reliability with which a neuron is able to create the same firing pattern when presented with the same stimulus is of critical importance to the understanding of neuronal information processing. We show that reliability is closely related to the process of phaselocking. Experimental results f...
MEASUREMENT: ACCOUNTING FOR RELIABILITY IN PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES.
Waterman, Brian; Sutter, Robert; Burroughs, Thomas; Dunagan, W Claiborne
2014-01-01
When evaluating physician performance measures, physician leaders are faced with the quandary of determining whether departures from expected physician performance measurements represent a true signal or random error. This uncertainty impedes the physician leader's ability and confidence to take appropriate performance improvement actions based on physician performance measurements. Incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurement is a valuable way of reducing the impact of random error in the measurements, such as those caused by small sample sizes. Consequently, the physician executive has more confidence that the results represent true performance and is positioned to make better physician performance improvement decisions. Applying reliability adjustment to physician-level performance data is relatively new. As others have noted previously, it's important to keep in mind that reliability adjustment adds significant complexity to the production, interpretation and utilization of results. Furthermore, the methods explored in this case study only scratch the surface of the range of available Bayesian methods that can be used for reliability adjustment; further study is needed to test and compare these methods in practice and to examine important extensions for handling specialty-specific concerns (e.g., average case volumes, which have been shown to be important in cardiac surgery outcomes). Moreover, it's important to note that the provider group average as a basis for shrinkage is one of several possible choices that could be employed in practice and deserves further exploration in future research. With these caveats, our results demonstrate that incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurements is feasible and can notably reduce the incidence of "real" signals relative to what one would expect to see using more traditional approaches. A physician leader who is interested in catalyzing performance improvement
Yukawa Bound States and Their LHC Phenomenology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Enkhbat Tsedenbaljir
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We present the current status on the possible bound states of extra generation quarks. These include phenomenology and search strategy at the LHC. If chiral fourth-generation quarks do exist their strong Yukawa couplings, implied by current experimental lower bound on their masses, may lead to formation of bound states. Due to nearly degenerate 4G masses suggested by Precision Electroweak Test one can employ “heavy isospin” symmetry to classify possible spectrum. Among these states, the color-octet isosinglet vector ω 8 is the easiest to be produced at the LHC. The discovery potential and corresponding decay channels are covered in this paper. With possible light Higgs at ~125 GeV two-Higgs doublet version is briefly discussed.
Bounded Gaps between Products of Special Primes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ping Ngai Chung
2014-03-01
Full Text Available In their breakthrough paper in 2006, Goldston, Graham, Pintz and Yıldırım proved several results about bounded gaps between products of two distinct primes. Frank Thorne expanded on this result, proving bounded gaps in the set of square-free numbers with r prime factors for any r ≥ 2, all of which are in a given set of primes. His results yield applications to the divisibility of class numbers and the triviality of ranks of elliptic curves. In this paper, we relax the condition on the number of prime factors and prove an analogous result using a modified approach. We then revisit Thorne’s applications and give a better bound in each case.
Braneworld black holes and entropy bounds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Heydarzade
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The Bousso's D-bound entropy for the various possible black hole solutions on a 4-dimensional brane is checked. It is found that the D-bound entropy here is apparently different from that of obtained for the 4-dimensional black hole solutions. This difference is interpreted as the extra loss of information, associated to the extra dimension, when an extra-dimensional black hole is moved outward the observer's cosmological horizon. Also, it is discussed that N-bound entropy is hold for the possible solutions here. Finally, by adopting the recent Bohr-like approach to black hole quantum physics for the excited black holes, the obtained results are written also in terms of the black hole excited states.
Energy conditions bounds and supernovae data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lima, M.P.; Vitenti, S.D.P.; Reboucas, M.J.
2008-01-01
The energy conditions play an important role in the description of some important properties of the Universe, including the current accelerating expansion phase and the possible recent phase of super-acceleration. In a recent work we have provided a detailed study of the energy conditions for the recent past by deriving bounds from energy conditions and by making the confrontation of the bounds with supernovae data. Here, we extend and update these results in two different ways. First, by carrying out a new statistical analysis for q(z) estimates needed for the confrontation between the bounds and supernovae data. Second, by providing a new picture of the energy conditions fulfillment and violation in the light of the recently compiled Union set of 307 type Ia supernovae and by using two different statistical approaches
Bound water in Kevlar 49 fibers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garza, R.G.; Pruneda, C.O.; Morgan, R.J.
1981-01-01
From elemental analyses, thermogravimetric-mass spectroscopy studies and re-evaluation of previous water diffusion studies in Kevlar 49 fibers it is concluded that these fibers can contain two types of sorbed moisture. The fibers can absorb up to approx. 6 wt % loosely bound water with an activation energy for outgassing by desorption of 6 kcal/mole. This loosely bound water is a direct result of the presence of Na 2 SO 4 impurities and the perturbations they induce on the packing of the rod-like poly (p-phenylene terephthalamide) macromolecules. Kevlar 49 fibers also inherently contain up to 30 wt % additional water which is tightly bound within the crystal lattice. This water exhibits an activation energy for outgassing by diffusion of approx. 40 kcal/mole and is only evolved from the fiber in significant quantities at t > 350 0 C over a period of hours
Cosmological implications of Dark Matter bound states
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mitridate, Andrea [Scuola Normale Superiore, Piazza dei Cavalieri 7, 56126, Pisa (Italy); Redi, Michele; Smirnov, Juri [INFN, Sezione di Firenze, and Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Firenze, Via G. Sansone 1, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino (Italy); Strumia, Alessandro, E-mail: andrea.mitridate@gmail.com, E-mail: michele.redi@fi.infn.it, E-mail: juri.smirnov@mpi-hd.mpg.de, E-mail: alessandro.strumia@cern.ch [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Università di Pisa and INFN, Pisa (Italy)
2017-05-01
We present generic formulæ for computing how Sommerfeld corrections together with bound-state formation affects the thermal abundance of Dark Matter with non-abelian gauge interactions. We consider DM as a fermion 3plet (wino) or 5plet under SU(2) {sub L} . In the latter case bound states raise to 11.5 TeV the DM mass required to reproduce the cosmological DM abundance and give indirect detection signals such as (for this mass) a dominant γ-line around 70 GeV. Furthermore, we consider DM co-annihilating with a colored particle, such as a squark or a gluino, finding that bound state effects are especially relevant in the latter case.
Design reliability engineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buden, D.; Hunt, R.N.M.
1989-01-01
Improved design techniques are needed to achieve high reliability at minimum cost. This is especially true of space systems where lifetimes of many years without maintenance are needed and severe mass limitations exist. Reliability must be designed into these systems from the start. Techniques are now being explored to structure a formal design process that will be more complete and less expensive. The intent is to integrate the best features of design, reliability analysis, and expert systems to design highly reliable systems to meet stressing needs. Taken into account are the large uncertainties that exist in materials, design models, and fabrication techniques. Expert systems are a convenient method to integrate into the design process a complete definition of all elements that should be considered and an opportunity to integrate the design process with reliability, safety, test engineering, maintenance and operator training. 1 fig
Bayesian methods in reliability
Sander, P.; Badoux, R.
1991-11-01
The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.
de Klerk, Etienne; Laurent, Monique
We consider the problem of minimizing a continuous function f over a compact set K. We compare the hierarchy of upper bounds proposed by Lasserre in [SIAM J. Optim. 21(3) (2011), pp. 864-885] to bounds that may be obtained from simulated annealing. We show that, when f is a polynomial and K a convex
Creed, Peter A.; Patton, Wendy; Hood, Michelle
2010-01-01
We surveyed 506 Australian high school students on career development (exploration, planning, job-knowledge, decision-making, indecision), personal functioning (well-being, self-esteem, life satisfaction, school satisfaction) and control variables (parent education, school achievement), and tested differences among work-bound, college-bound and…
A note on BPS vortex bound states
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Alonso-Izquierdo
2016-02-01
Full Text Available In this note we investigate bound states, where scalar and vector bosons are trapped by BPS vortices in the Abelian Higgs model with a critical ratio of the couplings. A class of internal modes of fluctuation around cylindrically symmetric BPS vortices is characterized mathematically, analyzing the spectrum of the second-order fluctuation operator when the Higgs and vector boson masses are equal. A few of these bound states with low values of quantized magnetic flux are described fully, and their main properties are discussed.
A note on BPS vortex bound states
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Alonso-Izquierdo, A., E-mail: alonsoiz@usal.es [Departamento de Matematica Aplicada, Universidad de Salamanca (Spain); Garcia Fuertes, W., E-mail: wifredo@uniovi.es [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Oviedo (Spain); Mateos Guilarte, J., E-mail: guilarte@usal.es [Departamento de Fisica Fundamental, Universidad de Salamanca (Spain)
2016-02-10
In this note we investigate bound states, where scalar and vector bosons are trapped by BPS vortices in the Abelian Higgs model with a critical ratio of the couplings. A class of internal modes of fluctuation around cylindrically symmetric BPS vortices is characterized mathematically, analyzing the spectrum of the second-order fluctuation operator when the Higgs and vector boson masses are equal. A few of these bound states with low values of quantized magnetic flux are described fully, and their main properties are discussed.
[Membrane-bound cytokine and feedforward regulation].
Wu, Ke-Fu; Zheng, Guo-Guang; Ma, Xiao-Tong; Song, Yu-Hua
2013-10-01
Feedback and feedforward widely exist in life system, both of them are the basic processes of control system. While the concept of feedback has been widely used in life science, feedforward regulation was systematically studied in neurophysiology, awaiting further evidence and mechanism in molecular biology and cell biology. The authors put forward a hypothesis about the feedforward regulation of membrane bound macrophage colony stimulation factor (mM-CSF) on the basis of their previous work. This hypothesis might provide a new direction for the study on the biological effects of mM-CSF on leukemia and solid tumors, and contribute to the study on other membrane bound cytokines.
The covariant entropy bound in gravitational collapse
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao, Sijie; Lemos, Jose P. S.
2004-01-01
We study the covariant entropy bound in the context of gravitational collapse. First, we discuss critically the heuristic arguments advanced by Bousso. Then we solve the problem through an exact model: a Tolman-Bondi dust shell collapsing into a Schwarzschild black hole. After the collapse, a new black hole with a larger mass is formed. The horizon, L, of the old black hole then terminates at the singularity. We show that the entropy crossing L does not exceed a quarter of the area of the old horizon. Therefore, the covariant entropy bound is satisfied in this process. (author)
Bound states in curved quantum waveguides
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Exner, P.; Seba, P.
1987-01-01
We study free quantum particle living on a curved planar strip Ω of a fixed width d with Dirichlet boundary conditions. It can serve as a model for electrons in thin films on a cylindrical-type substrate, or in a curved quantum wire. Assuming that the boundary of Ω is infinitely smooth and its curvature decays fast enough at infinity, we prove that a bound state with energy below the first transversal mode exists for all sufficiently small d. A lower bound on the critical width is obtained using the Birman-Schwinger technique. (orig.)
Lower Bounds for External Memory Dictionaries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brodal, Gerth Stølting; Fagerberg, Rolf
2003-01-01
We study trade-offs between the update time and the query time for comparison based external memory dictionaries. The main contributions of this paper are two lower bound trade offs between the I/O complexity of member queries and insertions: If N < M insertions perform at most δ · N/B I/Os, then......We study trade-offs between the update time and the query time for comparison based external memory dictionaries. The main contributions of this paper are two lower bound trade offs between the I/O complexity of member queries and insertions: If N
Finding Maximal Pairs with Bounded Gap
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brodal, Gerth Stølting; Lyngsø, Rune B.; Pedersen, Christian N. S.
1999-01-01
. In this paper we present methods for finding all maximal pairs under various constraints on the gap. In a string of length n we can find all maximal pairs with gap in an upper and lower bounded interval in time O(n log n+z) where z is the number of reported pairs. If the upper bound is removed the time reduces...... to O(n+z). Since a tandem repeat is a pair where the gap is zero, our methods can be seen as a generalization of finding tandem repeats. The running time of our methods equals the running time of well known methods for finding tandem repeats....
Bound constrained quadratic programming via piecewise
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Kaj; Nielsen, Hans Bruun; Pinar, M. C.
1999-01-01
of a symmetric, positive definite matrix, and is solved by Newton iteration with line search. The paper describes the algorithm and its implementation including estimation of lambda/sub 1/ , how to get a good starting point for the iteration, and up- and downdating of Cholesky factorization. Results of extensive......We consider the strictly convex quadratic programming problem with bounded variables. A dual problem is derived using Lagrange duality. The dual problem is the minimization of an unconstrained, piecewise quadratic function. It involves a lower bound of lambda/sub 1/ , the smallest eigenvalue...
Quantum Kolmogorov complexity and bounded quantum memory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miyadera, Takayuki
2011-01-01
The effect of bounded quantum memory in a primitive information protocol has been examined using the quantum Kolmogorov complexity as a measure of information. We employed a toy two-party protocol in which Bob, by using a bounded quantum memory and an unbounded classical memory, estimates a message that was encoded in qubits by Alice in one of the bases X or Z. Our theorem gave a nontrivial effect of the memory boundedness. In addition, a generalization of the uncertainty principle in the presence of quantum memory has been obtained.
Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.
Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene
2014-01-01
Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.
CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007
2007-01-01
"Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)
Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sébastien eMassoni
2014-12-01
Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.
Confidence-building measures in the Asia-Pacific region
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qin Huasun
1991-01-01
The regional confidence-building, security and disarmament issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular, support to non-proliferation regime and establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones are reviewed
Building Supervisory Confidence--A Key to Transfer of Training
Byham, William C.; Robinson, James
1977-01-01
A training concept is described which suggests that efforts toward maintaining and/or building the confidence of the participants in supervisory training programs can increase their likelihood of using the skills on the job. (TA)
The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Florent Meyniel
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems
Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data
Gehrels, N.
1986-01-01
The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.
Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Hotz
2016-10-01
Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.
Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Empirical Risk Minimization
Wang, Yue; Kifer, Daniel; Lee, Jaewoo
2018-01-01
The process of data mining with differential privacy produces results that are affected by two types of noise: sampling noise due to data collection and privacy noise that is designed to prevent the reconstruction of sensitive information. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing confidence intervals for the parameters of a variety of differentially private machine learning models. The algorithms can provide confidence intervals that satisfy differential privacy (as well as the mor...
Learning style and confidence: an empirical investigation of Japanese employees
Yoshitaka Yamazaki
2012-01-01
This study aims to examine how learning styles relate to employees' confidence through a view of Kolb's experiential learning theory. For this aim, an empirical investigation was conducted using the sample of 201 Japanese employees who work for a Japanese multinational corporation. Results illustrated that the learning style group of acting orientation described a significantly higher level of job confidence than that of reflecting orientation, whereas the two groups of feeling and thinking o...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Egan, M.; Paulley, A.; Lehman, L.; Lowe, J.; Rochette, E.; Baker, St.
2009-01-01
The assessment of uncertainties and their implications is a key requirement when undertaking performance assessment (PA) of radioactive waste facilities. Decisions based on the outcome of such assessments become translated into judgments about confidence in the information they provide. This confidence, in turn, depends on uncertainties in the underlying evidence. Even if there is a large amount of information supporting an assessment, it may be only partially relevant, incomplete or less than completely reliable. In order to develop a measure of confidence in the outcome, sources of uncertainty need to be identified and adequately addressed in the development of the PA, or in any overarching strategic decision-making processes. This paper describes a trial application of the technique of Evidence Support Logic (ESL), which has been designed for application in support of 'high stakes' decisions, where important aspects of system performance are subject to uncertainty. The aims of ESL are to identify the amount of uncertainty or conflict associated with evidence relating to a particular decision, and to guide understanding of how evidence combines to support confidence in judgments. Elicitation techniques are used to enable participants in the process to develop a logical hypothesis model that best represents the relationships between different sources of evidence to the proposition under examination. The aim is to identify key areas of subjectivity and other sources of potential bias in the use of evidence (whether for or against the proposition) to support judgments of confidence. Propagation algorithms are used to investigate the overall implications of the logic according to the strength of the underlying evidence and associated uncertainties. (authors)
The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.
1999-01-01
Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results
Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.
Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador
2013-01-01
Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.
Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro
2017-10-01
The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.
Reliability of construction materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Merz, H.
1976-01-01
One can also speak of reliability with respect to materials. While for reliability of components the MTBF (mean time between failures) is regarded as the main criterium, this is replaced with regard to materials by possible failure mechanisms like physical/chemical reaction mechanisms, disturbances of physical or chemical equilibrium, or other interactions or changes of system. The main tasks of the reliability analysis of materials therefore is the prediction of the various failure reasons, the identification of interactions, and the development of nondestructive testing methods. (RW) [de
Structural Reliability Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.
The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Denis, Anne-Marie
2014-01-01
RTE publishes a yearly reliability report based on a standard model to facilitate comparisons and highlight long-term trends. The 2013 report is not only stating the facts of the Significant System Events (ESS), but it moreover underlines the main elements dealing with the reliability of the electrical power system. It highlights the various elements which contribute to present and future reliability and provides an overview of the interaction between the various stakeholders of the Electrical Power System on the scale of the European Interconnected Network. (author)
Inference on the reliability of Weibull distribution with multiply Type-I censored data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jia, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Jiang, Ping; Guo, Bo
2016-01-01
In this paper, we focus on the reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring, which is a general form of Type-I censoring. In multiply Type-I censoring in this study, all units in the life testing experiment are terminated at different times. Reliability estimation with the maximum likelihood estimate of Weibull parameters is conducted. With the delta method and Fisher information, we propose a confidence interval for reliability and compare it with the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap confidence interval. Furthermore, a scenario involving a few expert judgments of reliability is considered. A method is developed to generate extended estimations of reliability according to the original judgments and transform them to estimations of Weibull parameters. With Bayes theory and the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method, a posterior sample is obtained to compute the Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the proposed confidence interval outperforms the bootstrap one. The Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability are both satisfactory. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods. - Highlights: • We focus on reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring. • The proposed confidence interval for the reliability is superior after comparison. • The Bayes estimates with a few expert judgements on reliability are satisfactory. • We specify the cases where the MLEs do not exist and present methods to remedy it. • The distribution of estimate of reliability should be used for accurate estimate.
Models of bounded rationality under certainty
Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.
2015-01-01
Purpose This chapter reviews models of decision-making and choice under conditions of certainty. It allows readers to position the contribution of the other chapters in this book in the historical development of the topic area. Theory Bounded rationality is defined in terms of a strategy to simplify
Sobolev spaces on bounded symmetric domains
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Engliš, Miroslav
Roč. 60, č. 12 ( 2015 ), s. 1712-1726 ISSN 1747-6933 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : bounded symmetric domain * Sobolev space * Bergman space Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.466, year: 2015 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17476933. 2015 .1043910
Properties of Excitons Bound to Ionized Donors
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Skettrup, Torben; Suffczynski, M.; Gorzkowski, W.
1971-01-01
Binding energies, interparticle distances, oscillator strengths, and exchange corrections are calculated for the three-particle complex corresponding to an exciton bound to an ionized donor. The results are given as functions of the mass ratio of the electron and hole. Binding of the complex is o...
Bogomol'nyi bounds for cosmic strings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Comtet, A.; Gibbons, G.W.; Cambridge Univ.
1987-09-01
We establish Bogomol'nyi inequalities for the deficit angle of some cylindrically symmetric asymptotically local flat (CALF) spacetimes containing cosmic strings. These results prove the stability against arbitrary cylindrical deformations of those configurations which saturate the bound. Such configurations satisfy first order equations which can, in some cases, be solved exactly
Bounding the bias of contrastive divergence learning
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fischer, Anja; Igel, Christian
2011-01-01
Optimization based on k-step contrastive divergence (CD) has become a common way to train restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). The k-step CD is a biased estimator of the log-likelihood gradient relying on Gibbs sampling. We derive a new upper bound for this bias. Its magnitude depends on k...
Bound States in the Mirror TBA
Arutyunov, G.E.; Frolov, S.; van Tongeren, S.J.
2012-01-01
The spectrum of the light-cone AdS_5 \\times S^5 superstring contains states composed of particles with complex momenta including in particular those which turn into bound states in the decompactification limit. We propose the mirror TBA description for these states. We focus on a three-particle
Harmonic maps of the bounded symmetric domains
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xin, Y.L.
1994-06-01
A shrinking property of harmonic maps into R IV (2) is proved which is used to classify complete spacelike surfaces of the parallel mean curvature in R 4 2 with a reasonable condition on the Gauss image. Liouville-type theorems of harmonic maps from the higher dimensional bounded symmetric domains are also established. (author). 25 refs
Scattering theory methods for bound state problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raphael, R.B.; Tobocman, W.
1978-01-01
For the analysis of the properties of a bound state system one may use in place of the Schroedinger equation the Lippmann-Schwinger (LS) equation for the wave function or the LS equation for the reactance operator. Use of the LS equation for the reactance operator constrains the solution to have correct asymptotic behaviour, so this approach would appear to be desirable when the bound state wave function is to be used to calculate particle transfer form factors. The Schroedinger equation based N-level analysis of the s-wave bound states of a square well is compared to the ones based on the LS equation. It is found that the LS equation methods work better than the Schroedinger equation method. The method that uses the LS equation for the wave function gives the best results for the wave functions while the method that uses the LS equation for the reactance operator gives the best results for the binding energies. The accuracy of the reactance operator based method is remarkably insensitive to changes in the oscillator constant used for the harmonic oscillator function basis set. It is also remarkably insensitive to the number of nodes in the bound state wave function. (Auth.)
Lower bounds on scintillation detector timing performance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clinthorne, N.H.; Rogers, W.L.; Hero, A.O. III.; Petrick, N.A.
1990-01-01
Fundamental method-independent limits on the timing performance of scintillation detectors are useful for identifying regimes in which either present timing methods are nearly optimal or where a considerable performance gain might be realized using better pulse processing techniques. Several types of lower bounds on mean-squared timing error (MSE) performance have been developed and applied to scintillation detectors. The simple Cramer-Rao (CR) bound can be useful in determining the limiting MSE for scintillators having a relatively high rate of photon problction such as BaF 2 and NaI(Tl); however, it tends to overestimate the achievalbe performance for scintillators with lower rates such as BGO. For this reason, alternative bounds have been developed using rate-distortion theory or by assuming that the conversion of energy to scintillation light must pass through excited states which have exponential lifetime densities. The bounds are functions of the mean scintillation pulse shape, the scintillation intensity, and photodetector characteristics; they are simple to evaluate and can be used to conveniently assess the limiting timing performance of scintillation detectors. (orig.)
Efficiency gains, bounds, and risk in finance
Sarisoy, Cisil
2015-01-01
This thesis consists of three chapters. The first chapter analyzes efficiency gains in the estimation of expected returns based on asset pricing models and examines the economic implications of such gains in portfolio allocation exercises. The second chapter provides nonparametric efficiency bounds
Book Selection, Collection Development, and Bounded Rationality.
Schwartz, Charles A.
1989-01-01
Reviews previously proposed schemes of classical rationality in book selection, describes new approaches to rational choice behavior, and presents a model of book selection based on bounded rationality in a garbage can decision process. The role of tacit knowledge and symbolic content in the selection process are also discussed. (102 references)…
Monotonicity and bounds on Bessel functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Larry Landau
2000-07-01
Full Text Available survey my recent results on monotonicity with respect to order of general Bessel functions, which follow from a new identity and lead to best possible uniform bounds. Application may be made to the "spreading of the wave packet" for a free quantum particle on a lattice and to estimates for perturbative expansions.
Collisional properties of weakly bound heteronuclear dimers
Marcelis, B.; Kokkelmans, S.J.J.M.F.; Shlyapnikov, G.V.; Petrov, D.S.
2008-01-01
We consider collisional properties of weakly bound heteronuclear molecules (dimers) formed in a two-species mixture of atoms with a large mass difference. We focus on dimers containing light fermionic atoms as they manifest collisional stability due to an effective dimer-dimer repulsion originating
Bounded Rationality of Generalized Abstract Fuzzy Economies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lei Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available By using a nonlinear scalarization technique, the bounded rationality model M for generalized abstract fuzzy economies in finite continuous spaces is established. Furthermore, by using the model M, some new theorems for structural stability and robustness to (λ,ϵ-equilibria of generalized abstract fuzzy economies are proved.
Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making
Camerer, Colin F.
1998-01-01
The main objectives of this paper are: (i) To give a pithy, opinionated summary of what has been learned about bounded rationality in individual decision making from experiments in economics and psychology (drawing on my 1995 Handbook of Experimental Economics chapter); and (ii) mention some promising new directions for research which would be included if that chapter were written today.
Sharp Bounds for Symmetric and Asymmetric Diophantine Approximation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Cornelis KRAAIKAMP; Ionica SMEETS
2011-01-01
In 2004,Tong found bounds for the approximation quality of a regular continued fraction convergent to a rational number,expressed in bounds for both the previous and next approximation.The authors sharpen his results with a geometric method and give both sharp upper and lower bounds.The asymptotic frequencies that these bounds occur are also calculated.
Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.
Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus
2014-02-01
The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.
Connections between the Sznajd model with general confidence rules and graph theory
Timpanaro, André M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.
2012-10-01
The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is used to model opinion propagation and consensus formation in societies. Its main feature is that its rules favor bigger groups of agreeing people. In a previous work, we generalized the bounded confidence rule in order to model biases and prejudices in discrete opinion models. In that work, we applied this modification to the Sznajd model and presented some preliminary results. The present work extends what we did in that paper. We present results linking many of the properties of the mean-field fixed points, with only a few qualitative aspects of the confidence rule (the biases and prejudices modeled), finding an interesting connection with graph theory problems. More precisely, we link the existence of fixed points with the notion of strongly connected graphs and the stability of fixed points with the problem of finding the maximal independent sets of a graph. We state these results and present comparisons between the mean field and simulations in Barabási-Albert networks, followed by the main mathematical ideas and appendices with the rigorous proofs of our claims and some graph theory concepts, together with examples. We also show that there is no qualitative difference in the mean-field results if we require that a group of size q>2, instead of a pair, of agreeing agents be formed before they attempt to convince other sites (for the mean field, this would coincide with the q-voter model).
Sorption databases for increasing confidence in performance assessment - 16053
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richter, Anke; Brendler, Vinzenz; Nebelung, Cordula; Payne, Timothy E.; Brasser, Thomas
2009-01-01
World-wide activities focus on the remediation of radioactively contaminated sites. One common aim is to deliver a more profound chemical base for risk assessment, namely all those physico-chemical phenomena governing the contamination plume development in time and space. Coupled transport codes able to tackle this challenge have to simplify the resulting very complex reaction pattern. To do so in an adequate way requires extending the knowledge about retardation and mobilisation phenomena and the underlying basic processes and interactions (e.g. physisorption, chemisorption, surface precipitation). Interactions at the solid-liquid interface can be described by complementary approaches, the empirical K d concept and the mechanistic Surface Complexation Models (SCM). K d 's are used by most reactive transport and risk assessment codes due to the straightforward numerics involved. In addition, the K d concept is often the only feasible option for complex solid phases. However, the K d concept is a rather simplistic approach. Many very different basic physicochemical phenomena are subsumed in just one conditional parameter. Therefore, extrapolating K d values may yield very large uncertainties. SCM account adsorption of ions on surface sites as complexation reaction comparable to complexation in solution. The electrical charge at the surface is determined by the chemical reactions of the mineral functional groups, including acid-base reactions and formation of ion pairs and coordinative complexes. The required parameters are site-independent and applicable despite large variations in geochemical conditions. This presents a high potential to increase confidence in safety analysis and risk assessment studies (performance assessment). The mechanistic description of sorption processes with SCM allows a thermodynamically consistent calculation of the species distribution between liquid and solid phase combined with more reliable inter- and extrapolations. However, this
Approach to reliability assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Green, A.E.; Bourne, A.J.
1975-01-01
Experience has shown that reliability assessments can play an important role in the early design and subsequent operation of technological systems where reliability is at a premium. The approaches to and techniques for such assessments, which have been outlined in the paper, have been successfully applied in variety of applications ranging from individual equipments to large and complex systems. The general approach involves the logical and systematic establishment of the purpose, performance requirements and reliability criteria of systems. This is followed by an appraisal of likely system achievment based on the understanding of different types of variational behavior. A fundamental reliability model emerges from the correlation between the appropriate Q and H functions for performance requirement and achievement. This model may cover the complete spectrum of performance behavior in all the system dimensions
Bounds on fluid permeability for viscous flow through porous media
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berryman, J.G.
1985-01-01
General properties of variational bounds on Darcy's constant for slow viscous flow through porous media are studied. The bounds are also evaluated numerically for the penetrable sphere model. The bound of Doi depending on two-point correlations and the analytical bound of Weissberg and Prager give comparable results in the low density limit but the analytical bound is superior for higher densities. Prager's bound depending on three-point correlation functions is worse than the analytical bound at low densities but better (although comparable to it) at high densities. A procedure for methodically improving Prager's three point bound is presented. By introducing a Gaussian trial function, the three-point bound is improved by an order of magnitude for moderate values of porosity. The new bounds are comparable in magnitude to the Kozeny--Carman empirical relation for porous materials
The rating reliability calculator
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Solomon David J
2004-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.
Reliability and maintainability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1994-01-01
Several communications in this conference are concerned with nuclear plant reliability and maintainability; their titles are: maintenance optimization of stand-by Diesels of 900 MW nuclear power plants; CLAIRE: an event-based simulation tool for software testing; reliability as one important issue within the periodic safety review of nuclear power plants; design of nuclear building ventilation by the means of functional analysis; operation characteristic analysis for a power industry plant park, as a function of influence parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bento, J.P.; Boerje, S.; Ericsson, G.; Hasler, A.; Lyden, C.O.; Wallin, L.; Poern, K.; Aakerlund, O.
1985-01-01
The main objective for the report is to improve failure data for reliability calculations as parts of safety analyses for Swedish nuclear power plants. The work is based primarily on evaluations of failure reports as well as information provided by the operation and maintenance staff of each plant. In the report are presented charts of reliability data for: pumps, valves, control rods/rod drives, electrical components, and instruments. (L.E.)
Approximate estimation of system reliability via fault trees
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dutuit, Y.; Rauzy, A.
2005-01-01
In this article, we show how fault tree analysis, carried out by means of binary decision diagrams (BDD), is able to approximate reliability of systems made of independent repairable components with a good accuracy and a good efficiency. We consider four algorithms: the Murchland lower bound, the Barlow-Proschan lower bound, the Vesely full approximation and the Vesely asymptotic approximation. For each of these algorithms, we consider an implementation based on the classical minimal cut sets/rare events approach and another one relying on the BDD technology. We present numerical results obtained with both approaches on various examples
Sample Size Bounding and Context Ranking as Approaches to the Human Error Quantification Problem
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reer, B
2004-03-01
The paper describes a technique denoted as Sub-Sample-Size Bounding (SSSB), which is useable for the statistical derivation of context-specific probabilities from data available in existing reports on operating experience. Applications to human reliability analysis (HRA) are emphasised in the presentation of this technique. Exemplified by a sample of 180 abnormal event sequences, the manner in which SSSB can provide viable input for the quantification of errors of commission (EOCs) are outlined. (author)
Sample Size Bounding and Context Ranking as Approaches to the Human Error Quantification Problem
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reer, B.
2004-01-01
The paper describes a technique denoted as Sub-Sample-Size Bounding (SSSB), which is useable for the statistical derivation of context-specific probabilities from data available in existing reports on operating experience. Applications to human reliability analysis (HRA) are emphasised in the presentation of this technique. Exemplified by a sample of 180 abnormal event sequences, the manner in which SSSB can provide viable input for the quantification of errors of commission (EOCs) are outlined. (author)
Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis
Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.
Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.
Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve
2011-05-01
Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar
Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.
1995-01-01
This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in
Analysis and Application of Reliability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, Hae Seong; Park, Dong Ho; Kim, Jae Ju
1999-05-01
This book tells of analysis and application of reliability, which includes definition, importance and historical background of reliability, function of reliability and failure rate, life distribution and assumption of reliability, reliability of unrepaired system, reliability of repairable system, sampling test of reliability, failure analysis like failure analysis by FEMA and FTA, and cases, accelerated life testing such as basic conception, acceleration and acceleration factor, and analysis of accelerated life testing data, maintenance policy about alternation and inspection.
Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.
Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing
2016-01-01
Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.
Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jaylson Jair da Silveira
2015-06-01
Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.
Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiao-Qian Sun
Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.
Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.
Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M
2016-11-01
Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.
Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isabella Kasselstrand
2017-04-01
Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.
Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?
Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma
2016-09-01
The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.
2011-01-01
We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.
Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.
Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D
2015-12-01
Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.
Nurses' training and confidence on deep venous catheterization.
Liachopoulou, A P; Synodinou-Kamilou, E E; Deligiannidi, P G; Giannakopoulou, M; Birbas, K N
2008-01-01
The rough estimation of the education and the self-confidence of nurses, both students and professionals, regarding deep venous catheterization in adult patients, the evaluation of the change in self-confidence of one team of students who were trained with a simulator on deep venous catheterization and the correlation of their self-confidence with their performance recorded by the simulator. Seventy-six nurses and one hundred twenty-four undergraduate students participated in the study. Fourty-four University students took part in a two-day educational seminar and were trained on subclavian and femoral vein paracentesis with a simulator and an anatomical model. Three questionnaires were filled in by the participants: one from nurses, one from students of Technological institutions, while the University students filled in the previous questionnaire before their attendance of the seminar, and another questionnaire after having attended it. Impressive results in improving the participants' self-confidence were recorded. However, the weak correlation of their self-confidence with the score automatically provided by the simulator after each user's training obligates us to be particularly cautious about the ability of the users to repeat the action successfully in a clinical environment. Educational courses and simulators are useful educational tools that are likely to shorten but in no case can efface the early phase of the learning curve in clinical setting, substituting the clinical training of inexperienced users.
Upper bounds for reversible circuits based on Young subgroups
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Abdessaied, Nabila; Soeken, Mathias; Thomsen, Michael Kirkedal
2014-01-01
We present tighter upper bounds on the number of Toffoli gates needed in reversible circuits. Both multiple controlled Toffoli gates and mixed polarity Toffoli gates have been considered for this purpose. The calculation of the bounds is based on a synthesis approach based on Young subgroups...... that results in circuits using a more generalized gate library. Starting from an upper bound for this library we derive new bounds which improve the existing bound by around 77%....
Limited test data: The choice between confidence limits and inverse probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nichols, P.
1975-01-01
For a unit which has been successfully designed to a high standard of reliability, any test programme of reasonable size will result in only a small number of failures. In these circumstances the failure rate estimated from the tests will depend on the statistical treatment applied. When a large number of units is to be manufactured, an unexpected high failure rate will certainly result in a large number of failures, so it is necessary to guard against optimistic unrepresentative test results by using a confidence limit approach. If only a small number of production units is involved, failures may not occur even with a higher than expected failure rate, and so one may be able to accept a method which allows for the possibility of either optimistic or pessimistic test results, and in this case an inverse probability approach, based on Bayes' theorem, might be used. The paper first draws attention to an apparently significant difference in the numerical results from the two methods, particularly for the overall probability of several units arranged in redundant logic. It then discusses a possible objection to the inverse method, followed by a demonstration that, for a large population and a very reasonable choice of prior probability, the inverse probability and confidence limit methods give the same numerical result. Finally, it is argued that a confidence limit approach is overpessimistic when a small number of production units is involved, and that both methods give the same answer for a large population. (author)
Maximally reliable Markov chains under energy constraints.
Escola, Sean; Eisele, Michael; Miller, Kenneth; Paninski, Liam
2009-07-01
Signal-to-noise ratios in physical systems can be significantly degraded if the outputs of the systems are highly variable. Biological processes for which highly stereotyped signal generations are necessary features appear to have reduced their signal variabilities by employing multiple processing steps. To better understand why this multistep cascade structure might be desirable, we prove that the reliability of a signal generated by a multistate system with no memory (i.e., a Markov chain) is maximal if and only if the system topology is such that the process steps irreversibly through each state, with transition rates chosen such that an equal fraction of the total signal is generated in each state. Furthermore, our result indicates that by increasing the number of states, it is possible to arbitrarily increase the reliability of the system. In a physical system, however, an energy cost is associated with maintaining irreversible transitions, and this cost increases with the number of such transitions (i.e., the number of states). Thus, an infinite-length chain, which would be perfectly reliable, is infeasible. To model the effects of energy demands on the maximally reliable solution, we numerically optimize the topology under two distinct energy functions that penalize either irreversible transitions or incommunicability between states, respectively. In both cases, the solutions are essentially irreversible linear chains, but with upper bounds on the number of states set by the amount of available energy. We therefore conclude that a physical system for which signal reliability is important should employ a linear architecture, with the number of states (and thus the reliability) determined by the intrinsic energy constraints of the system.
A Reliability Test of a Complex System Based on Empirical Likelihood
Zhou, Yan; Fu, Liya; Zhang, Jun; Hui, Yongchang
2016-01-01
To analyze the reliability of a complex system described by minimal paths, an empirical likelihood method is proposed to solve the reliability test problem when the subsystem distributions are unknown. Furthermore, we provide a reliability test statistic of the complex system and extract the limit distribution of the test statistic. Therefore, we can obtain the confidence interval for reliability and make statistical inferences. The simulation studies also demonstrate the theorem results.
On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation
Tegenfeldt, Fredrik
2005-01-01
In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...
Exploring Self - Confidence Level of High School Students Doing Sport
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nurullah Emir Ekinci
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate self-confidence levels of high school students, who do sport, in the extent of their gender, sport branch (individual/team sports and aim for participating in sport (professional/amateur. 185 active high school students from Kutahya voluntarily participated for the study. In the study as data gathering tool self-confidence scale was used. In the evaluation of the data as a hypothesis test Mann Whitney U non parametric test was used. As a result self-confidence levels of participants showed significant differences according to their gender and sport branch but there was no significant difference according to aim for participating in sport.
Building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Corden, P.S.
1992-01-01
This paper presents a few thoughts on the question of building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia, in particular in the area centred on the Korean peninsula. This question includes the process of establishing and implementing confidence- and security-building measures, some of which might involve States other than North and South Korea. The development of CSBMs has now been well established in Europe, and there are encouraging signs that such measures are taking hold in other areas of the world, including in Korea. Consequently there is a fairly rich mine of information, precedent and experience from which to draw in focusing on the particular subject at hand. In these remarks the concept of confidence- and security-building is briefly addressed and measures are examined that have proven useful in other circumstances and review some possibilities that appear of interest in the present context
Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.
Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano
2016-10-01
Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Bounds on Minimum Energy per Bit for Optical Wireless Relay Channels
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. D. Raza
2014-09-01
Full Text Available An optical wireless relay channel (OWRC is the classical three node network consisting of source, re- lay and destination nodes with optical wireless connectivity. The channel law is assumed Gaussian. This paper studies the bounds on minimum energy per bit required for reliable communication over an OWRC. It is shown that capacity of an OWRC is concave and energy per bit is monotonically increasing in square of the peak optical signal power, and consequently the minimum energy per bit is inversely pro- portional to the square root of asymptotic capacity at low signal to noise ratio. This has been used to develop upper and lower bound on energy per bit as a function of peak signal power, mean to peak power ratio, and variance of channel noise. The upper and lower bounds on minimum energy per bit derived in this paper correspond respectively to the decode and forward lower bound and the min-max cut upper bound on OWRC capacity
Reliability demonstration test planning using bayesian analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chandran, Senthil Kumar; Arul, John A.
2003-01-01
In Nuclear Power Plants, the reliability of all the safety systems is very critical from the safety viewpoint and it is very essential that the required reliability requirements be met while satisfying the design constraints. From practical experience, it is found that the reliability of complex systems such as Safety Rod Drive Mechanism is of the order of 10 -4 with an uncertainty factor of 10. To demonstrate the reliability of such systems is prohibitive in terms of cost and time as the number of tests needed is very large. The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian reliability demonstrating testing procedure for exponentially distributed failure times with gamma prior distribution on the failure rate which can be easily and effectively used to demonstrate component/subsystem/system reliability conformance to stated requirements. The important questions addressed in this paper are: With zero failures, how long one should perform the tests and how many components are required to conclude with a given degree of confidence, that the component under test, meets the reliability requirement. The procedure is explained with an example. This procedure can also be extended to demonstrate with more number of failures. The approach presented is applicable for deriving test plans for demonstrating component failure rates of nuclear power plants, as the failure data for similar components are becoming available in existing plants elsewhere. The advantages of this procedure are the criterion upon which the procedure is based is simple and pertinent, the fitting of the prior distribution is an integral part of the procedure and is based on the use of information regarding two percentiles of this distribution and finally, the procedure is straightforward and easy to apply in practice. (author)
Nearest unlike neighbor (NUN): an aid to decision confidence estimation
Dasarathy, Belur V.
1995-09-01
The concept of nearest unlike neighbor (NUN), proposed and explored previously in the design of nearest neighbor (NN) based decision systems, is further exploited in this study to develop a measure of confidence in the decisions made by NN-based decision systems. This measure of confidence, on the basis of comparison with a user-defined threshold, may be used to determine the acceptability of the decision provided by the NN-based decision system. The concepts, associated methodology, and some illustrative numerical examples using the now classical Iris data to bring out the ease of implementation and effectiveness of the proposed innovations are presented.
Building, measuring and improving public confidence in the nuclear regulator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2006-01-01
An important factor for public confidence in the nuclear regulator is the general public trust of the government and its representatives, which is clearly not the same in all countries. Likewise, cultural differences between countries can be considerable, and similar means of communication between government authorities and the public may not be universally effective. Nevertheless, this workshop identified a number of common principles for the communication of nuclear regulatory decisions that can be recommended to all regulators. They have been cited in particular for their ability to help build, measure and/or improve overall public confidence in the nuclear regulator. (author)
Effect of False Confidence on Asset Allocation Decisions of Households
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Swarn Chatterjee
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates whether false confidence, as characterized by a high level of personal mastery and a low level of intelligence (IQ, results in frequent investor trading and subsequent investor wealth erosion across time. Using the National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79, change in wealth and asset allocation across time is modeled as a function of various behavioral, socio-economic and demographic variables drawn from prior literature. Findings of this research reveal that false confidence is indeed a predictor of trading activity in individual investment assets, and it also has a negative impact on individual wealth creation across time.