Lower confidence limits for structure reliability
CHEN Jiading; LI Ji
2006-01-01
For a class of data often arising in engineering,we have developed an approach to compute the lower confidence limit for structure reliability with a given confidence level.Especially,in a case with no failure and a case with only one failure,the concrete computational methods are presented.
Two-Sided Tests and One-Sided Confidence Bounds
1994-01-01
Based on the duality between tests and confidence sets we introduce a new method to derive one-sided confidence bounds following the rejection of a null hypothesis with two-sided alternatives. This method imputes that the experimenter is only interested in confidence bounds if the null hypothesis is rejected. Furthermore, we suppose that he is only interested in the direction and a lower confidence bound concerning the distance of the true parameter value to the parameter values in the null h...
Confidence intervals with a priori parameter bounds
Lokhov, A V
2014-01-01
We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution of the problem. Derived are the solutions for the cases of a continuous distribution with non-negative estimated parameter and a discrete distribution, specifically a Poisson process with background. For both cases, the best upper limit is constructed that accounts for the a priori information. A table is provided with the confidence intervals for the parameter of Poisson distribution that correctly accounts for the information on the known value of the background along with the software for calculating the confidence intervals for any confidence levels and magnitudes of the background (the software is freely available for download via Internet).
Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence
Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing
2017-01-01
When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038
Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.
Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing
2017-01-01
When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.
Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics
Backus, George E.
1989-01-01
Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.
Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships
Baayen, C; Hougaard, P
2015-01-01
. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall...... test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...
Rejection Mechanism in 2D Bounded Confidence Provides more Conformity
Huet, Sylvie; Jager, Wander
2014-01-01
We add a rejection mechanism (negative influence) into a two-dimensions bounded confidence model. The principle is that one shifts aways from a close attitude of one's interlocutor, when there is a strong disagreement on the other attitude. The model shows metastable clusters, which maintain themselves through opposite influences of competitor clusters. Our analysis and first experiments support the hypothesis that the number of clusters grows linearly with the inverse of the uncertainty, whereas this growth is quadratic in the bounded confidence model.
Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures
Schinkel, Stefan [Interdisciplinary Centre for Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Potsdam (Germany)], E-mail: schinkel@agnld.uni-potsdam.de; Marwan, N. [Interdisciplinary Centre for Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Potsdam (Germany); Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); Dimigen, O. [Department of Psychology, University of Potsdam (Germany); Kurths, J. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); Department of Physics, Humboldt University at Berlin (Germany)
2009-06-15
In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.
Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model
Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark
2016-05-01
This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.
Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey
Lorenz, Jan
Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.
Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.
Baayen, C; Hougaard, P
2015-11-30
An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution
Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang
2017-08-01
Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.
Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation
Steve Verrill; Richard A. Johnson
2007-01-01
For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.
Validation, Uncertainty, and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC)
Logan, R W; Nitta, C K
2002-12-06
This paper represents a summary of our methodology for Verification and Validation and Uncertainty Quantification. A graded scale methodology is presented and related to other concepts in the literature. We describe the critical nature of quantified Verification and Validation with Uncertainty Quantification at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after Verification and Validation has contributed to Uncertainty Quantification at specified confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. Verification and Validation methods for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence and we summarize briefly how this can lead to a Value Engineering methodology for investment strategy.
Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates
Reid, Stuart G.
2013-05-01
Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.
Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation
Steve Verrill
2003-01-01
This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...
A Route Confidence Evaluation Method for Reliable Hierarchical Text Categorization
Hatami, Nima; Armano, Giuliano
2012-01-01
Hierarchical Text Categorization (HTC) is becoming increasingly important with the rapidly growing amount of text data available in the World Wide Web. Among the different strategies proposed to cope with HTC, the Local Classifier per Node (LCN) approach attains good performance by mirroring the underlying class hierarchy while enforcing a top-down strategy in the testing step. However, the problem of embedding hierarchical information (parent-child relationship) to improve the performance of HTC systems still remains open. A confidence evaluation method for a selected route in the hierarchy is proposed to evaluate the reliability of the final candidate labels in an HTC system. In order to take into account the information embedded in the hierarchy, weight factors are used to take into account the importance of each level. An acceptance/rejection strategy in the top-down decision making process is proposed, which improves the overall categorization accuracy by rejecting a few percentage of samples, i.e., thos...
Lower bounds to the reliabilities of factor score estimators
Hessen, D.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/256041717
2017-01-01
Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone’s factor score estimators, Bartlett’s factor score
An interval-valued reliability model with bounded failure rates
Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor
2012-01-01
The approach to deriving interval-valued reliability measures described in this paper is distinctive from other imprecise reliability models in that it overcomes the issue of having to impose an upper bound on time to failure. It rests on the presupposition that a constant interval-valued failure...... function if only partial failure information is available. An example is provided. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC....
A rejection mechanism in 2D bounded confidence provides more conformity
Huet, S.; Deffuant, G.; Jager, W.
This paper explores the dynamics of attitude change in two dimensions resulting from social interaction. We add a rejection mechanism into the 2D bounded confidence (BC) model proposed by Deffuant et al. (2001). Individuals are characterized by two-dimensional continuous attitudes, each associated
Mass media and heterogeneous bounds of confidence in continuous opinion dynamics
Pineda, M
2014-01-01
This work focus on the effects of an external mass media on continuous opinion dynamics with heterogeneous bounds of confidence. We modified the original Deffuant et al. and Hegselmann and Krause models to incorporate both, an external mass media and a heterogeneous distribution of confidence levels. We analysed two cases, one where only two bounds of confidence are taken into account, and other were each individual of the system has her/his own characteristic level of confidence. We found that, in the absence of mass media, diversity of bounds of confidence can improve the capacity of the systems to reach consensus. We show that the persuasion capacity of the external message is optimal for intermediate levels of heterogeneity. Our simulations also show the existence, for certain parameter values, of a counter-intuitive effect in which the persuasion capacity of the mass media decreases if the mass media intensity is too large. We discuss similarities and differences between the two heterogeneous versions of...
Optimal bounded control for maximizing reliability of Duhem hysteretic systems
Ming XU; Xiaoling JIN; Yong WANG; Zhilong HUANG
2015-01-01
The optimal bounded control of stochastic-excited systems with Duhem hysteretic components for maximizing system reliability is investigated. The Duhem hysteretic force is transformed to energy-depending damping and stiffness by the energy dissipation balance technique. The controlled system is transformed to the equivalent non-hysteretic system. Stochastic averaging is then implemented to obtain the Itˆo stochastic equation associated with the total energy of the vibrating system, appropriate for eval-uating system responses. Dynamical programming equations for maximizing system re-liability are formulated by the dynamical programming principle. The optimal bounded control is derived from the maximization condition in the dynamical programming equa-tion. Finally, the conditional reliability function and mean time of first-passage failure of the optimal Duhem systems are numerically solved from the Kolmogorov equations. The proposed procedure is illustrated with a representative example.
Patarawan Sangnawakij
2017-02-01
Full Text Available The problem of estimating parameters in a gamma distribution has been widely studied with respect to both theories and applications. In special cases, when the parameter space is bounded, the construction of the confidence interval based on the classical Neyman procedure is unsatisfactory because the information regarding the restriction of the parameter is disregarded. In order to develop the estimator for this issue, the confidence intervals for the coefficient of variation for the case of a gamma distribution were proposed. Extending to two populations, the confidence intervals for the difference and the ratio of coefficients of variation with restricted parameters were presented. Monte Carlo simulations were used to investigate the performance of the proposed estimators. The results showed that the proposed confidence intervals performed better than the compared estimators in terms of expected length, especially when the coefficients of variation were close to the boundary. Additionally, two examples using real data were analyzed to illustrate the findings of the paper.
A bounded confidence approach to understanding user participation in peer production systems
Ciampaglia, Giovanni Luca
2011-01-01
Commons-based peer production does seem to rest upon a paradox. Although users produce all contents, at the same time participation is commonly on a voluntary basis, and largely incentivized by achievement of project's goals. This means that users have to coordinate their actions and goals, in order to keep themselves from leaving. While this situation is easily explainable for small groups of highly committed, like-minded individuals, little is known about large-scale, heterogeneous projects, such as Wikipedia. In this contribution we present a model of peer production in a large online community. The model features a dynamic population of bounded confidence users, and an endogenous process of user departure. Using global sensitivity analysis, we identify the most important parameters affecting the lifespan of user participation. We find that the model presents two distinct regimes, and that the shift between them is governed by the bounded confidence parameter. For low values of this parameter, users depart...
Kurmyshev, Evguenii; González-Silva, Ricardo A
2011-01-01
Bounded confidence models of opinion dynamics have been actively studied in recent years, in particular, opinion formation and extremism propagation along with other aspects of social dynamics. In this work, after an analysis of limitations of the Deffuant-Weisbuch (DW) bounded confidence, relative agreement model, we propose the Mixed model that takes into account two psychological types of individuals. Concord agents (C-agents) are friendly people; they interact in a way that their opinions get closer always. Agents of the other psychological type show partial antagonism in their interaction (PA-agents). Opinion dynamics in heterogeneous social groups, consisting of agents of the two types, was studied on different social networks. Limit cases of the mixed model, pure C- and PA-societies, were also studied. We found that group opinion formation is, qualitatively, almost independent of the topology of networks used in this work. Opinion fragmentation, polarization and consensus are observed in the mixed mode...
Shaikh, Muhammad Mujtaba; Memon, Abdul Jabbar; Hussain, Manzoor
2016-09-01
In this article, we describe details of the data used in the research paper "Confidence bounds for energy conservation in electric motors: An economical solution using statistical techniques" [1]. The data presented in this paper is intended to show benefits of high efficiency electric motors over the standard efficiency motors of similar rating in the industrial sector of Pakistan. We explain how the data was collected and then processed by means of formulas to show cost effectiveness of energy efficient motors in terms of three important parameters: annual energy saving, cost saving and payback periods. This data can be further used to construct confidence bounds for the parameters using statistical techniques as described in [1].
Wright, T.
1993-03-01
When attributes are rare and few or none are observed in the selected sample from a finite universe, sampling statisticians are increasingly being challenged to use whatever methods are available to declare with high probability or confidence that the universe is near or completely attribute-free. This is especially true when the attribute is undesirable. Approximations such as those based on normal theory are frequently inadequate with rare attributes. For simple random sampling without replacement, an appropriate probability distribution for statistical inference is the hypergeometric distribution. But even with the hypergeometric distribution, the investigator is limited from making claims of attribute-free with high confidence unless the sample size is quite large using nonrandomized techniques. In the hypergeometric setting with rare attributes, exact randomized tests of hypothesis a,re investigated to determine the effect on power of how one specifies the null hypothesis. In particular, specifying the null hypothesis as zero attributes does not always yield maximum possible power. We also consider the hypothesis specification question under complex sampling designs including stratified random sampling and two-stage cluster sampling (one case involves random selection at first stage and another case involves probability proportional to size without replacement selection at first stage). Also under simple random sampling, this article defines and presents a simple algorithm for the construction of exact ``randomized`` upper confidence bounds which permit one to possibly report tighter bounds than those exact bounds obtained using ``nonrandomized`` methods.
Wright, T.
1993-03-01
When attributes are rare and few or none are observed in the selected sample from a finite universe, sampling statisticians are increasingly being challenged to use whatever methods are available to declare with high probability or confidence that the universe is near or completely attribute-free. This is especially true when the attribute is undesirable. Approximations such as those based on normal theory are frequently inadequate with rare attributes. For simple random sampling without replacement, an appropriate probability distribution for statistical inference is the hypergeometric distribution. But even with the hypergeometric distribution, the investigator is limited from making claims of attribute-free with high confidence unless the sample size is quite large using nonrandomized techniques. In the hypergeometric setting with rare attributes, exact randomized tests of hypothesis a,re investigated to determine the effect on power of how one specifies the null hypothesis. In particular, specifying the null hypothesis as zero attributes does not always yield maximum possible power. We also consider the hypothesis specification question under complex sampling designs including stratified random sampling and two-stage cluster sampling (one case involves random selection at first stage and another case involves probability proportional to size without replacement selection at first stage). Also under simple random sampling, this article defines and presents a simple algorithm for the construction of exact randomized'' upper confidence bounds which permit one to possibly report tighter bounds than those exact bounds obtained using nonrandomized'' methods.
Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane
Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Mital, Subodh K.
2008-01-01
an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.
Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken
2012-11-01
Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.
What is a leader of opinion formation in bounded confidence models?
Kurmyshev, E
2013-01-01
Taking a decision in democratic social groups is based on the opinion of the majority or on the consensus. So, the study of opinion dynamics is of great interest in analyzing social phenomena. Among the different models of opinion dynamics, bounded confidence models have been studied in different contexts and shown interesting dynamics [1-3]. In [E. Kurmyshev, H.A. Ju\\'arez, and R.A. Gonz\\'alez-Silva, Phys. A 390, 16 (2011)] we proposed a new bounded confidence model and studied the self-formation of opinion in heterogeneous societies composed by agents of two psychological types, concord (C-) and partial antagonism (PA-) agents. In this work we study the influence of "leaders" on the clustering of opinions. Mixed C/PA-societies along with the pure C- and PA-society are studied. The influence of the leader's connectivity in the network, his toughness or tolerance and his opinion on the opinion dynamics is studied as a function of the initial opinion uncertainty (tolerance) of the population. Numerical results...
Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions
Parravano, Antonio; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A
2016-01-01
In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents' opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a "left clique" and a "right clique". In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in...
Analytic Estimation of Standard Error and Confidence Interval for Scale Reliability.
Raykov, Tenko
2002-01-01
Proposes an analytic approach to standard error and confidence interval estimation of scale reliability with fixed congeneric measures. The method is based on a generally applicable estimator stability evaluation procedure, the delta method. The approach, which combines wide-spread point estimation of composite reliability in behavioral scale…
The impact of evidence reliability on sensitivity and bias in decision confidence.
Boldt, Annika; de Gardelle, Vincent; Yeung, Nick
2017-08-01
Human observers effortlessly and accurately judge their probability of being correct in their decisions, suggesting that metacognitive evaluation is an integral part of decision making. It remains a challenge for most models of confidence, however, to explain how metacognitive judgments are formed and which internal signals influence them. While the decision-making literature has suggested that confidence is based on privileged access to the evidence that gives rise to the decision itself, other lines of research on confidence have commonly taken the view of a multicue model of confidence. The present study aims at manipulating one such cue: the perceived reliability of evidence supporting an initial decision. Participants made a categorical judgment of the average color of an array of eight colored shapes, for which we critically manipulated both the distance of the mean color from the category boundary (evidence strength) and the variability of colors across the eight shapes (evidence reliability). Our results indicate that evidence reliability has a stronger impact on confidence than evidence strength. Specifically, we found that evidence reliability affects metacognitive readout, the mapping from subjectively experienced certainty to expressed confidence, allowing participants to adequately adjust their confidence ratings to match changes in objective task performance across conditions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
王雪丽; 陶剑; 史宁中
2005-01-01
The primary goal of a phase I clinical trial is to find the maximum tolerable dose of a treatment. In this paper, we propose a new stepwise method based on confidence bound and information incorporation to determine the maximum tolerable dose among given dose levels. On the one hand, in order to avoid severe even fatal toxicity to occur and reduce the experimental subjects, the new method is executed from the lowest dose level, and then goes on in a stepwise fashion. On the other hand,in order to improve the accuracy of the recommendation, the final recommendation of the maximum tolerable dose is accomplished through the information incorporation of an additional experimental cohort at the same dose level. Furthermore, empirical simulation results show that the new method has some real advantages in comparison with the modified continual reassessment method.
Evaluation for Confidence Interval of Reliability of Rolling Bearing Lifetime with Type I Censoring
Xintao Xia
2013-06-01
Full Text Available In the lifetime test of rolling bearings under type I censoring with a small sample, the confidence interval of reliability needs to be evaluated to ensure safe and reliable operation of a system like an aerospace system. Thus the probability density function of Weibull distribution parameters must be attained. Owing to very few test data and for lack of prior knowledge, it is difficult to take it out for prevailing methods like the moment method, the maximum likelihood method and the Harris method. For this end, the bootstrap likelihood maximum-entropy method is proposed by fusing the bootstrap method, the maximum likelihood method and the Harris method. The lifetime test data with the small sample are made into the simulated parameter data with the large sample to obtain the probability density function on the parameters. The confidence intervals of the Weibull distribution parameters are estimated and the confidence interval of reliability is calculated. The tests of the complete large-sample data, the complete small-sample data and the incomplete small-sample data are produced to prove effectiveness of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method can assess the confidence interval of the reliability without any prior information on the Weibull distribution parameters.
Carro, Adrian; Miguel, Maxi San
2012-01-01
We study a model for continuous-opinion dynamics under bounded confidence. In particular, we analyze the importance of the initial distribution of opinions in determining the asymptotic configuration. Thus, we sketch the structure of attractors of the dynamical system, by means of the numerical computation of the time evolution of the agents density. We show that, for a given bound of confidence, a consensus can be encouraged or prevented by certain initial conditions. Furthermore, a noisy perturbation is added to the system with the purpose of modeling the free will of the agents. As a consequence, the importance of the initial condition is partially replaced by that of the statistical distribution of the noise. Nevertheless, we still find evidence of the influence of the initial state upon the final configuration for a short range of the bound of confidence parameter.
Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis
2016-03-01
Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.
Fang, Chih-Chiang; Yeh, Chun-Wu
2016-09-01
The quantitative evaluation of software reliability growth model is frequently accompanied by its confidence interval of fault detection. It provides helpful information to software developers and testers when undertaking software development and software quality control. However, the explanation of the variance estimation of software fault detection is not transparent in previous studies, and it influences the deduction of confidence interval about the mean value function that the current study addresses. Software engineers in such a case cannot evaluate the potential hazard based on the stochasticity of mean value function, and this might reduce the practicability of the estimation. Hence, stochastic differential equations are utilised for confidence interval estimation of the software fault-detection process. The proposed model is estimated and validated using real data-sets to show its flexibility.
Tricritical points in a Vicsek model of self-propelled particles with bounded confidence.
Romensky, Maksym; Lobaskin, Vladimir; Ihle, Thomas
2014-12-01
We study the orientational ordering in systems of self-propelled particles with selective interactions. To introduce the selectivity we augment the standard Vicsek model with a bounded-confidence collision rule: a given particle only aligns to neighbors who have directions quite similar to its own. Neighbors whose directions deviate more than a fixed restriction angle α are ignored. The collective dynamics of this system is studied by agent-based simulations and kinetic mean-field theory. We demonstrate that the reduction of the restriction angle leads to a critical noise amplitude decreasing monotonically with that angle, turning into a power law with exponent 3/2 for small angles. Moreover, for small system sizes we show that upon decreasing the restriction angle, the kind of the transition to polar collective motion changes from continuous to discontinuous. Thus, an apparent tricritical point with different scaling laws is identified and calculated analytically. We investigate the shifting and vanishing of this point due to the formation of density bands as the system size is increased. Agent-based simulations in small systems with large particle velocities show excellent agreement with the kinetic theory predictions. We also find that at very small interaction angles, the polar ordered phase becomes unstable with respect to the apolar phase. We derive analytical expressions for the dependence of the threshold noise on the restriction angle. We show that the mean-field kinetic theory also permits stationary nematic states below a restriction angle of 0.681π. We calculate the critical noise, at which the disordered state bifurcates to a nematic state, and find that it is always smaller than the threshold noise for the transition from disorder to polar order. The disordered-nematic transition features two tricritical points: At low and high restriction angle, the transition is discontinuous but continuous at intermediate α. We generalize our results to systems
Paul L. Patterson; Mark Finco
2009-01-01
This paper explores the information FIA data can produce regarding forest types that were not sampled and develops the equations necessary to define the upper confidence bounds on not-sampled forest types. The problem is reduced to a Bernoulli variable. This simplification allows the upper confidence bounds to be calculated based on Cochran (1977). Examples are...
Paul L. Patterson; Mark Finco
2011-01-01
This paper explores the information forest inventory data can produce regarding forest types that were not sampled and develops the equations necessary to define the upper confidence bounds on not-sampled forest types. The problem is reduced to a Bernoulli variable. This simplification allows the upper confidence bounds to be calculated based on Cochran (1977)....
Convex Set Theory for Reliability Assessment of Steel Beam with Bounded Uncertainty
Li-Zhe Jia; Yi-Ming Duan
2014-01-01
Probabilistic reliability model established by insufficient data is inaccessible. The convex model was applied to model the uncertainties of variables. A new non-probabilistic reliability model was proposed based on the robustness of system to uncertainty. The non-probabilistic reliability model, the infinite norm model, and the probabilistic model were used to assess the reliability of a steel beam, respectively. The results show that the resistance is allowed to couple with the action effect in the non-probabilistic reliability model. Additionally, the non-probabilistic reliability model becomes the same accurate as probabilistic model with the increase of the bounded uncertain information. The model is decided by the available data and information.
Sapp, Marty
2012-01-01
Like many journals within education, for "Multicultural Learning and Teaching," this writer found little written on measurement, effect sizes, and confidence intervals; therefore, the purpose of this article is to address these factors. The effect of not addressing these issues is that a basic foundation of science cannot be established…
Logan, R W; Nitta, C K
2002-07-17
This paper represents an attempt to summarize our thoughts regarding various methods and potential guidelines for Verification and Validation (V&V) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) that we have observed within the broader V&V community or generated ourselves. Our goals are to evaluate these various methods, to apply them to computational simulation analyses, and integrate them into methods for Quantitative Certification techniques for the nuclear stockpile. We describe the critical nature of high quality analyses with quantified V&V, and the essential role of V&V and UQ at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after V&V has contributed to UQ at confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. UQ of performance and safety margins for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence (QRC) and we summarize with a brief description of how these V&V generated QRC quantities fold into a Value-Engineering methodology for evaluating investment strategies. V&V contributes directly to the decision process for investment, through quantification of uncertainties at confidence for margin and reliability assessments. These contributions play an even greater role in a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) environment than ever before, when reliance on simulation in the absence of the ability to perform nuclear testing is critical.
Alessandro Barbiero
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In many statistical applications, it is often necessary to obtain an interval estimate for an unknown proportion or probability or, more generally, for a parameter whose natural space is the unit interval. The customary approximate two-sided confidence interval for such a parameter, based on some version of the central limit theorem, is known to be unsatisfactory when its true value is close to zero or one or when the sample size is small. A possible way to tackle this issue is the transformation of the data through a proper function that is able to make the approximation to the normal distribution less coarse. In this paper, we study the application of several of these transformations to the context of the estimation of the reliability parameter for stress-strength models, with a special focus on Poisson distribution. From this work, some practical hints emerge on which transformation may more efficiently improve standard confidence intervals in which scenarios.
Alghwiri, Alia A; Alghadir, Ahmad H; Al-Momani, Murad O; Whitney, Susan L
2016-01-01
Persons with vestibular disorders are susceptible to imbalance. The Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and Berg Balance Scale (BBS) have been validated in persons with vestibular disorders. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of the Arabic versions of ABC and BBS among Arabic-speaking persons with vestibular disorders in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the A-ABC and A-BBS were administered to a convenience sample of 82 persons with vestibular disorders (age = 43 ± 14), (56% female). The test-retest reliability of the A-ABC item and total score as well as the inter-rater and intra-rater reliability of the A-BBS total score reflected high agreement. Significant and large correlations were found between the A-ABC and the A-BBS (r= 0.54, P< 0.05), the A-ABC and the Arabic Dizziness Handicap Inventory (A-DHI) (r= -0.76, P< 0.05), and the A-BBS and the A-DHI (r= -0.56, P< 0.05). The A-ABC and the A-BBS demonstrated good reliability and validity and can be utilized with Arabic-speaking persons with vestibular disorders.
Van Norman, Ethan R
2016-09-01
Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) progress monitoring data is used to measure student response to instruction. Federal legislation permits educators to use CBM-R progress monitoring data as a basis for determining the presence of specific learning disabilities. However, decision making frameworks originally developed for CBM-R progress monitoring data were not intended for such high stakes assessments. Numerous documented issues with trend line estimation undermine the validity of using slope estimates to infer progress. One proposed recommendation is to use confidence interval overlap as a means of judging reliable growth. This project explored the degree to which confidence interval overlap was related to true growth magnitude using simulation methodology. True and observed CBM-R scores were generated across 7 durations of data collection (range 6-18 weeks), 3 levels of dataset quality or residual variance (5, 10, and 15 words read correct per minute) and 2 types of data collection schedules. Descriptive and inferential analyses were conducted to explore interactions between overlap status, progress monitoring scenarios, and true growth magnitude. A small but statistically significant interaction was observed between overlap status, duration, and dataset quality, b = -0.004, t(20992) =-7.96, p < .001. In general, confidence interval overlap does not appear to meaningfully account for variance in true growth across many progress monitoring conditions. Implications for research and practice are discussed. Limitations and directions for future research are addressed. (PsycINFO Database Record
Karapolat, Hale; Eyigor, Sibel; Kirazli, Yesim; Celebisoy, Nese; Bilgen, Cem; Kirazli, Tayfun
2010-01-01
The aim of this study is to evaluate the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, construct validity, and sensitivity to change of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC) in people with peripheral vestibular disorder. Thirty-three patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disease were included in the study. Patients were…
J. Ben Atkinson
1995-01-01
Full Text Available We consider the transient analysis of the M/G/1/0 queue, for which Pn(t denotes the probability that there are no customers in the system at time t, given that there are n(n=0,1 customers in the system at time 0. The analysis, which is based upon coupling theory, leads to simple bounds on Pn(t for the M/G/1/0 and M/PH/1/0 queues and improved bounds for the special case M/Er/1/0. Numerical results are presented for various values of the mean arrival rate λ to demonstrate the increasing accuracy of approximations based upon the above bounds in light traffic, i.e., as λ→0. An important area of application for the M/G/1/0 queue is as a reliability model for a single repairable component. Since most practical reliability problems have λ values that are small relative to the mean service rate, the approximations are potentially useful in that context. A duality relation between the M/G/1/0 and GI/M/1/0 queues is also described.
A reliable, delay bounded and less complex communication protocol for multicluster FANETs
Wajiya Zafar
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Recently, Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs, enabling ad-hoc networking between Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs is gaining importance in several military and civilian applications. The sensitivity of the applications requires adaptive; efficient; delay bounded and scalable communication network among UAVs for data transmission. Due to communication protocol complexity; rigidity; cost of commercial-off-the-shelf (COT components; limited radio bandwidth; high mobility and computational resources; maintaining the desired level of Quality of Service (QoS becomes a daunting task. For the first time in this research we propose multicluster FANETs for efficient network management; the proposed scheme considerably reduces communication cost and optimizes network performance as well as exploit low power; less complex and low cost IEEE 802.15.4 (MAC protocol for intercluster and intracluster communication. In this research both beacon enabled mode and beaconless modes have been investigated with Guaranteed Time Slots (GTS and virtual Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA respectively. The methodology plays a key role towards reserving bandwidth for latency critical applications; eliminate collisions and medium access delays. Moreover analysis ad-hoc routing protocols including two proactive (OLSR, DSDV and one reactive (AODV is also presented. The results shows that the proposed scheme guarantees high packet delivery ratios while maintaining acceptable levels of latency requirements comparable with more complex and dedicatedly designed protocols in literature.
Fan, Jinhua; Zhang, Youmin; Zheng, Zhiqiang
2013-11-01
A matrix inequality approach is proposed to reliably stabilize a class of uncertain linear systems subject to actuator faults, saturation, and bounded system disturbances. The system states are assumed immeasurable, and a classical observer is incorporated for observation to enable state-based feedback control. Both the stability and stabilization of the closed-loop system are discussed and the closed-loop domain of attraction is estimated by an ellipsoidal invariant set. The resultant stabilization conditions in the form of matrix inequalities enable simultaneous optimization of both the observer gain and the feedback controller gain, which is realized by converting the non-convex optimization problem to an unconstrained nonlinear programming problem. The effectiveness of proposed design techniques is demonstrated through a linearized model of F-18 HARV around an operating point.
Making College Students Gain Self-confidence by "Outward Bound"%通过“拓展训练”手段提高大学生自信心的研究
李晓婵; 王治国; 贾健
2012-01-01
In this paper, "Outward bound" was used to analyze the situation of college students self-confidence, and the problem that Chinese Universities Students widely lack of confidence was detected. Based on these data, the internal mechanism of the problem was elucidated, and " outward bound" , as a unique training mode which can improve the confidence of college students, was emphasized.%以拓展训练为手段对大学生自信心状况进行研究,发现我国高校大学生普遍存在自信心匮乏的问题;在此基础上深入分析了大学生缺乏自信的内在机理;并着重阐明了拓展训练是提高大学生自信心独特的训练模式.
Forsberg, Anette; Nilsagård, Ylva
2013-01-01
Objectif : Évaluer la validité et la fiabilité de la version suédoise de l'échelle ABC (Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale) de confiance de la personne en son équilibre associé à des gestes de la vie quotidienne chez les personnes >1 an après un AVC. Concept : Collecte initiale de données transversales multicentres avec suivi à l'aide de l'échelle ABC en Suède. Méthode : Un test de locomotion TUG (timed up-and-go), 10 mètres de marche chronométrée (10MWT) et un test de marche de 6 minutes (6MWT) ont été effectués; une évaluation à l'échelle ABC et le questionnaire Short Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) ont été réalisés; des données sur l'historique des chutes ont aussi été recueillies au cours d'une séance. Une semaine plus tard, l'échelle ABC a été envoyée aux participants pour une deuxième évaluation. Les coefficients de corrélation de Spearman ont été calculés, et la fiabilité a été évaluée à l'aide du coefficient de corrélation intraclasse (CCI) et du coefficient alpha de Cronbach. Résultats : Un échantillon de commodité de 67 personnes a été inclus (âge moyen: 68 ans). Le pointage moyen à l'échelle ABC est passé de 57 à la première évaluation à 43 lors de la seconde; 19 participants (28%) ont signalé des chutes au cours des trois mois précédents. Les pointages à l'échelle ABC affichaient une corrélation modérée avec le test TUG (r=0,48), le 10 MWT (r=0,52), avec le 6MWT (r=0,45) et avec le pointage sommaire de la composante physique du questionnaire SF-36 (r=0,43). La cohérence interne était élevée pour l'échelle ABC au test-retest (α=0,95–0,97). Le CCI était de 0,82 (I.C. de 95%, 0,72–0,88). Conclusions. La version suédoise de l'échelle ABC constitue un outil de mesure valable et fiable pour sonder la confiance en son équilibre chez les personnes >1 an après un AVC.
Cousins, Robert D
2011-01-01
Suppose an observable x is the measured value (negative or non-negative) of a true mean mu (physically non-negative) in an experiment with a Gaussian resolution function with known fixed rms deviation s. The most powerful one-sided upper confidence limit at 95% C.L. is UL = x+1.64s, which I refer to as the "original diagonal line". Perceived problems in HEP with small or non-physical upper limits for x<0 historically led, for example, to substitution of max(0,x) for x, and eventually to abandonment in the Particle Data Group's Review of Particle Physics of this diagonal line relationship between UL and x. Recently Cowan, Cranmer, Gross, and Vitells (CCGV) have advocated a concept of "power constraint" that when applied to this problem yields variants of diagonal line, including UL = max(-1,x)+1.64s. Thus it is timely to consider again what is problematic about the original diagonal line, and whether or not modifications cure these defects. In a 2002 Comment, statistician Leon Jay Gleser pointed to the lite...
Mamassian, Pascal
2016-10-14
Visual confidence refers to an observer's ability to judge the accuracy of her perceptual decisions. Even though confidence judgments have been recorded since the early days of psychophysics, only recently have they been recognized as essential for a deeper understanding of visual perception. The reluctance to study visual confidence may have come in part from obtaining convincing experimental evidence in favor of metacognitive abilities rather than just perceptual sensitivity. Some effort has thus been dedicated to offer different experimental paradigms to study visual confidence in humans and nonhuman animals. To understand the origins of confidence judgments, investigators have developed two competing frameworks. The approach based on signal decision theory is popular but fails to account for response times. In contrast, the approach based on accumulation of evidence models naturally includes the dynamics of perceptual decisions. These models can explain a range of results, including the apparently paradoxical dissociation between performance and confidence that is sometimes observed.
High-Effect Priority Bounded Confidence Model for Network Opinion Evolution%网络舆论演化的高影响力优先有限信任模型
陈桂茸; 蔡皖东; 徐会杰; 晏沛湘; 王剑平
2013-01-01
针对经典有限信任模型在观点更新时需考虑其他全部个体的观点,以及虚拟社会网络规模巨大、用户时间和精力有限等问题,提出了基于影响力和信任阈值、含有双重选择机制的网络舆论演化模型,并对参与网络舆论演化个体的观点坚持策略进行建模,在多个参数集下对该模型与经典有限信任模型进行仿真.结果表明,所获得结果与实际网络舆论演化的情况相符.%Artificial social networks which include thousands of members have become an important platform for network opinion evolution. People will not try their best to get and consider all other people's opinions when they give their opinions in Internet, because they do not have enough time and energy to do this, and they don't think it is- necessary. But in bounded confidence model, it needs to take into account all the other people's opinions when any people update his opinion, which is in conflict with the real networks. To solve this problem, a novelty network opinion evolution model with dual-choices based on effect and confidence was proposed, according to human behavioral patterns in real networks, and a model of people's opinion insistence strategy was made. The new model and the bounded confidence model with different sets of parameters were simulated for many times, and the results are in good agreement with what happened in real networks.
王雪丽; 陶剑; 史宁中
2005-01-01
The primary goal of a phase I clinical trial is to find the maximum tolerable dose of a treatment. In this paper, we propose a new stepwise method based on confidence bound and information incorporation to determine the maximum tolerable dose among given dose levels. On the one hand, in order to avoid severe even fatal toxicity to occur and reduce the experimental subjects, the new method is executed from the lowest dose level, and then goes on in a stepwise fashion. On the other hand,in order to improve the accuracy of the recommendation, the final recommendation of the maximum tolerable dose is accomplished through the information incorporation of an additional experimental cohort at the same dose level. Furthermore, empirical simulation results show that the new method has some real advantages in comparison with the modified continual reassessment method.
叶宝娟; 温忠麟
2012-01-01
Reliability is very important in evaluating the quality of a test. Based on the confirmatory factor analysis, composite reliabili- ty is a good index to estimate the test reliability for general applications. As is well known, point estimate contains limited information a- bout a population parameter and cannot indicate how far it can be from the population parameter. The confidence interval of the parame- ter can provide more information. In evaluating the quality of a test, the confidence interval of composite reliability has received atten- tion in recent years. There are three approaches to estimating the confidence interval of composite reliability of an unidimensional test: the Bootstrap method, the Delta method, and the direct use of the standard error of a software output (e. g. , LISREL). The Bootstrap method pro- vides empirical results of the standard error, and is the most credible method. But it needs data simulation techniques, and its computa- tion process is rather complex. The Delta method computes the standard error of composite reliability by approximate calculation. It is simpler than the Bootstrap method. The LISREL software can directly prompt the standard error, and it is the easiest among the three methods. By simulation study, it had been found that the interval estimates obtained by the Delta method and the Bootstrap method were almost identical, whereas the results obtained by LISREL and by the Bootstrap method were substantially different ( Ye & Wen, 2011 ). The Delta method is recommended when the confidence interval of composite reliability of a unidimensional test is estimated, because the Delta method is simpler than the Bootstrap method. There was little research about how to compute the confidence interval of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. We de- duced a formula by using the Delta method for computing the standard error of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. Based on the standard error, the
苟智坚; 范明钰; 王光卫
2015-01-01
Most models about continuous opinion dynamics lack the considerations of the effects of public opinion environment on trust relationships, and when opinions have been clustered into some collections, the bounded confidence will impede the subsequent opinion interactions between individuals that come from different opinion collections. In this paper, the change mechanism of trust relationships which affected by difference of opinion and neighboring opinion environment is analyzed, the restrictions of bounded confidence on individual interactions is eliminated, and a general model for the evolution of continuous opinions without bounded confidence is proposed. The results of simulation and of analysis show that our model not only reflect the opinions polymerization process, but also reflect the subsequent opinion interactions between individuals in different opinion collections after opinions have been aggregated. In addition, our model can do better at reflecting and explaining the process of opinion evolution, and it is consistent with existing search conclusions that the opinions consensus probability will be reduce if the clustering coefficient of complex network has been increased and will be increased with the addition of average degree.%多数的连续观点演化模型中，缺少考虑舆论环境对信任关系的影响，同时信任边界条件使得观点演化聚合之后，各观点集合中的个体无法进行后续观点交互。该文分析个体观点差异以及邻居舆论环境对交互过程中信任关系的影响，消除信任边界对观点交互更新的限制，建立无观点信任边界限制的连续观点演化模型，并研究该模型观点演化统一的影响机制。理论分析与仿真实验表明：该模型不单可以反映观点演化的聚合过程，而且能反映舆论演化聚合之后各观点集合之间的竞争交互过程，模型可描述观点集合形成后的观点有序集合的变化；同时，模
叶宝娟; 温忠麟
2011-01-01
The widely used coefficient α may underestimate or overestimate reliability when its premise assumption is violated and therefore is not a good index to evaluate reliability. Composite reliability can better estimate reliability by using confirmatory factor analysis (see e.g., Bentler, 2009; Green & Yang, 2009). As is well known, point estimate contains limited information about a population parameter and could not give how far it could be from the population parameter. The confidence interval of the parameter could provide more information. In evaluating the quality of a test, the confidence interval of composite reliability has received more and more attention in recent years.There are three approaches to estimate the confidence interval of composite reliability of a unidimensional test: Bootstrap method, Delta method and directly using the standard error in the output of an SEM software (e.g., LISREL). Each of the three approaches produces a standard error of composite reliability. Then the confidence interval can be easily formed based on the standard error. Bootstrap method provides an empirical result of the standard error of composite reliability and is the most credible, but the method needs data simulation technique and is not be easily mastered by general applied researchers. Delta method computes the standard error of composite reliability by approximate calculation, and the method is much simpler than Bootstrap method. LISREL software can directly give the standard error of composite reliability, and this method is the simplest among the three methods.To evaluate the standard errors of composite reliability obtained by Delta method and LISREL software, we compared them with that obtained by Bootstrap method, because the latter can be treated as the true value in theory. A simulation study was conducted to the comparison. Four factors were considered in the simulation design: (a) the number of items on each test (k=3, 6, 10, and 15); (b) factor loading
Determining Normal-Distribution Tolerance Bounds Graphically
Mezzacappa, M. A.
1983-01-01
Graphical method requires calculations and table lookup. Distribution established from only three points: mean upper and lower confidence bounds and lower confidence bound of standard deviation. Method requires only few calculations with simple equations. Graphical procedure establishes best-fit line for measured data and bounds for selected confidence level and any distribution percentile.
Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism
Stark, Philip B.
1992-01-01
The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.
On the Confidence Interval for the parameter of Poisson Distribution
Bityukov, S I; Taperechkina, V A
2000-01-01
In present paper the possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed and the results of numerical construction of confidence intervals are presented.
Lee, Tong H; Yoo, Sun K
2008-04-01
The reliable and instant transmission of vital signs is important for remote time-critical patient care through a telemedicine system. However, sometimes the reliability and instantaneity conditions cannot be satisfied simultaneously under a high-noise mobile network, because they are reciprocal to each other. In this paper, the vital sign transmission protocol (VSTP) running over a CDMA 1x EVDO (Code Division Multiple Access 1x Evolution Data Only) mobile network is proposed to comply with both the reliability and instantaneity requirements. The switching buffer management scheme is combined with a hybrid error control scheme, consisting of forward error correction (FEC) and automatic repeat request (ARQ). The CDMA 1x EVDO mobile network is modeled by two states using the Markov wireless channel model to test transmission performance under diverse network conditions. Throughout the noisy environment simulation, the performance of the VSTP is compared with the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and User Datagram Protocol (UDP) to demonstrate its efficacy over error-prone mobile network.
Jenny Isaacs
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.
Bound entanglement and entanglement bounds
Sauer, Simeon [Physikalisch-Astronomische Fakultaet, Friedrich-Schiller-Univesitaet Jena (Germany)]|[Physikalisches Institut, Albert-Ludwigs-Universitaet Freiburg, Hermann-Herder-Strasse 3, D-79104 Freiburg (Germany); Melo, Fernando de; Mintert, Florian; Buchleitner, Andreas [Physikalisches Institut, Albert-Ludwigs-Universitaet Freiburg, Hermann-Herder-Strasse 3, D-79104 Freiburg (Germany)]|[Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik komplexer Systeme, Noethnitzer Str.38, D-01187 Dresden (Germany); Bae, Joonwoo [School of Computational Sciences, Korea Institute for Advanced Study, Seoul 130-012 (Korea); Hiesmayr, Beatrix [Faculty of Physics, University of Vienna, Boltzmanngasse 5, A-1090 Vienna (Austria)
2008-07-01
We investigate the separability of Bell-diagonal states of two qutrits. By using lower bounds to algebraically estimate concurrence, we find convex regions of bound entangled states. Some of these regions exactly coincide with the obtained results when employing optimal entanglement witnesses, what shows that the lower bound can serve as a precise detector of entanglement. Some hitherto unknown regions of bound entangled states were discovered with this approach, and delimited efficiently.
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.
The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The M...
Increasing Mobility Confidence
... Español In Your Area NPF Shop Increasing Mobility Confidence To increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Make Text Smaller ... It might seem counterintuitive, but to increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Build physical activity ...
王智明; 杨建国
2012-01-01
Based on Akaike information criterion,Bayesian information criterion and the root-mean-square error of the fitting failure data,the best non-homogeneous Poisson process model of reliability analysis for repairable system was proposed.The point maximum likelihood and interval estimators of the parameters,as well as the reliability indices of the bounded intensity process model were given using the asymptotic lognormal distribution of the maximum likelihood estimation and the Fisher information matrix method.The failure data with time truncation of multiple NC machine tools were analyzed.The results show that the bounded intensity process is suitable for reliability assessment of deterioration machine tools with frequent maintenance actions.%基于Akaike信息准则（AIC）、Bayesian信息准则（BIC）及故障数据拟合的均方根误差（RMSE）,提出了可修系统可靠性分析的非齐次泊松过程模型的选择方法,利用最大似然估计的渐近对数正态分布特性,用Fisher信息矩阵法给出了边界强度过程模型参数及系统可靠性指标的点估计及区间估计,分析了多台数控机床时间截尾的故障过程.结果表明,对于维修频繁的性能恶化数控机床,边界强度故障模型适合于其可靠性评估.
Confidence intervals for the MMPI-2.
Munley, P H
1991-08-01
The confidence intervals for the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-2) clinical scales were investigated. Based on the clinical scale reliabilities published in the MMPI-2 manual, estimated true scores, standard errors of measurement for estimated true scores, and 95% confidence intervals centered around estimated true scores were calculated at 5-point MMPI-2 T-score intervals. The relationships between obtained T-scores, estimated true T-scores, scale reliabilities, and confidence intervals are discussed. The possible role of error measurement in defining scale high point and code types is noted.
Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar
2008-12-15
independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data
Strengthening Public Confidence.
Herlihy, John J.
Board members and administrators can build public confidence in their schools by taking every opportunity to communicate positive attitudes about the people in the schools. As leaders, they have the responsibility to use people power to promote the schools. If school employees feel good about their jobs, they will build confidence within the…
Reliability Stress-Strength Models for Dependent Observations with Applications in Clinical Trials
Kushary, Debashis; Kulkarni, Pandurang M.
1995-01-01
We consider the applications of stress-strength models in studies involving clinical trials. When studying the effects and side effects of certain procedures (treatments), it is often the case that observations are correlated due to subject effect, repeated measurements and observing many characteristics simultaneously. We develop maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and uniform minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of the reliability which in clinical trial studies could be considered as the chances of increased side effects due to a particular procedure compared to another. The results developed apply to both univariate and multivariate situations. Also, for the univariate situations we develop simple to use lower confidence bounds for the reliability. Further, we consider the cases when both stress and strength constitute time dependent processes. We define the future reliability and obtain methods of constructing lower confidence bounds for this reliability. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to evaluate all the procedures developed and also to compare the MLE and the UMVUE.
2016-06-07
defined. Although there are many different definitions of trust, our definition (Adams and Webb, 2003) is as follows: Trust is a psychological state...Judgments: Experiments on the Time to Determine Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology : Human Perception and Performance, 24(3), 929-945. BARANSKI...PETRUSIC, W. (2001). Testing Architectures of the Decision-Confidence Relation. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology , 55(3): 195-206. PETRUSIC, W
Maximum confidence measurements via probabilistic quantum cloning
Zhang Wen-Hai; Yu Long-Bao; Cao Zhuo-Liang; Ye Liu
2013-01-01
Probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) cannot copy a set of linearly dependent quantum states.In this paper,we show that if incorrect copies are allowed to be produced,linearly dependent quantum states may also be cloned by the PQC.By exploiting this kind of PQC to clone a special set of three linearly dependent quantum states,we derive the upper bound of the maximum confidence measure of a set.An explicit transformation of the maximum confidence measure is presented.
Steve Keen
2009-03-01
Full Text Available This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.
2009-01-01
This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.
Confidence in Coastal Forecasts
Baart, F.
2013-01-01
This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,
Adding Confidence to Knowledge
Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne
2015-01-01
A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…
... new skill and milestone, kids can develop increasing confidence. Parents can help by giving kids lots of opportunities to practice and master their skills, letting kids make mistakes and being there to boost their spirits so they keep trying. Respond with ...
Resolving the Confidence Crisis
Apter, Terri
2006-01-01
As children approach adolescence, they often experience confusion and uncertainty as they attempt to appear more grown up than they really feel. Research on both girls and boys has documented that the buoyant self-confidence of younger children often gives way to self-consciousness as young adolescents become aware of the complexity and difficulty…
Confidence building in emerging stock markets
Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.
2001-01-01
Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus
Confidence building in emerging stock markets
Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.
2000-01-01
Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus
Confidence building in emerging stock markets
Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.
2000-01-01
Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that
Business Confidence Survey 2000
Guo Yan
2009-01-01
@@ In order to gain a better understanding about the depth and breadth of its effect on European companies'businesses,the new strategies they are adopting to cope with the crisis,and how their attitudes to towards China-including long-term plans-have changed in its aftermath,the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China today launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey,which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Beijing on June 30,2009.Drawing on the responses of more than 300 European companies active in China.the 2009 Survey highlights a European business community that remains bullish in China in most sectors and read to back up that confidence with continued investment in the local economy provided that Chinese government is committed to creating a more free,fair and competitive market.
Varieties of Confidence Intervals.
Cousineau, Denis
2017-01-01
Error bars are useful to understand data and their interrelations. Here, it is shown that confidence intervals of the mean (CI M s) can be adjusted based on whether the objective is to highlight differences between measures or not and based on the experimental design (within- or between-group designs). Confidence intervals (CIs) can also be adjusted to take into account the sampling mechanisms and the population size (if not infinite). Names are proposed to distinguish the various types of CIs and the assumptions underlying them, and how to assess their validity is explained. The various CIs presented here are easily obtained from a succession of multiplicative adjustments to the basic (unadjusted) CI width. All summary results should present a measure of precision, such as CIs, as this information is complementary to effect sizes.
Reclaim your creative confidence.
Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David
2012-12-01
Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.
Interrelation of economic confidence with other types of confidence
Бонецький, Орест Олегович
2013-01-01
The paper gives the object and the subject of the study, which are used as a criterion allowing to separate the economic confidence from other types of confidence. The terms describing the psychological and sociological confidence are proposed. It was found that the economic confidence is interrelated with psychological confidence by motivation and advertising, sociological – by the results of activity of public organizations, state regulation of the economy. On the example of information-com...
Simulation integration with confidence
Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.
1999-07-01
Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.
Positive Root Bounds and Root Separation Bounds
Herman, Aaron Paul
In this thesis, we study two classes of bounds on the roots of a polynomial (or polynomial system). A positive root bound of a polynomial is an upper bound on the largest positive root. A root separation bound of a polynomial is a lower bound on the distance between the roots. Both classes of bounds are fundamental tools in computer algebra and computational real algebraic geometry, with numerous applications. In the first part of the thesis, we study the quality of positive root bounds. Higher quality means that the relative over-estimation (the ratio of the bound and the largest positive root) is smaller. We find that all known positive root bounds can be arbitrarily bad. We then show that a particular positive root bound is tight for certain important classes of polynomials. In the remainder of the thesis, we turn to root separation bounds. We observe that known root separation bounds are usually very pessimistic. To our surprise, we also find that known root separation bounds are not compatible with the geometry of the roots (unlike positive root bounds). This motivates us to derive new root separation bounds. In the second part of this thesis, we derive a new root separation for univariate polynomials by transforming a known bound into a new improved bound. In the third part of this thesis, we use a similar strategy to derive a new improved root separation bound for polynomial systems.
Ballester Pla, Coralio
2012-03-01
Full Text Available The observation of the actual behavior by economic decision makers in the lab and in the field justifies that bounded rationality has been a generally accepted assumption in many socio-economic models. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the difficulties involved in providing a correct definition of what a rational (or irrational agent is. In this paper we describe two frameworks that employ different approaches for analyzing bounded rationality. The first is a spatial segregation set-up that encompasses two optimization methodologies: backward induction and forward induction. The main result is that, even under the same state of knowledge, rational and non-rational agents may match their actions. The second framework elaborates on the relationship between irrationality and informational restrictions. We use the beauty contest (Nagel, 1995 as a device to explain this relationship.
La observación del comportamiento de los agentes económicos tanto en el laboratorio como en la vida real justifica que la racionalidad acotada sea un supuesto aceptado en numerosos modelos socio-económicos. El objetivo de este artículo es ilustrar las dificultades que conlleva una correcta definición de qué es un agente racional (irracional. En este artículo se describen dos marcos que emplean diferentes metodologías para analizar la racionalidad acotada. El primero es un modelo de segregación espacial donde se contrastan dos metodologías de optimización: inducción hacia atrás y hacia adelante. El resultado principal es que, incluso con el mismo nivel de conocimiento, tanto agentes racionales como irracionales podrían coincidir en sus acciones. El segundo marco trabaja sobre la relación entre irracionalidad y restricción de información. Se utiliza el juego llamado “beauty contest” (Nagel 1995 como mecanismo para explicar dicha relación.
Statistics with confidence confidence intervals and statistical guidelines
Altman, Douglas; Bryant, Trevor; Gardner, Stephen
2013-01-01
This highly popular introduction to confidence intervals has been thoroughly updated and expanded. It includes methods for using confidence intervals, with illustrative worked examples and extensive guidelines and checklists to help the novice.
Confidence in Numerical Simulations
Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-02-23
This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.
任丽娜; 芮执元; 李建华
2014-01-01
In minimal repair, in order to describe the failure process of numerical control(NC) machine tools experiencing both early failures and deterioration phenomena, and operating so long that the intensity function approaches a finite asymptote as the system operating time grows, a new four-parameter non-homogeneous Poisson process model is proposed. The characteristics of the model are discussed, and the physical meaning of its parameters is given, calculating formula of point estimation for model parameters and reliability indices such as the minimum intensity value and the time of minimum intensity are all derived, then a method of model selection for reliability assessment of two NC machine tools is provided based on the likelihood ratio statistic, and the model evaluation criterion is given based on the index of goodness-of-fit test. The real failure data of two NC machine tools are analyzed by using the proposed method, the results show that this method can quantitatively evaluate the machine tools’ lasting time of early failure period, it is suitable for describing the failure process of NC machine tools with bounded and bathtub shaped failure trend, and can provide a theoretical basis for eliminating as much early failures as possible before the NC machine tools leave the factory.%最小维修情况下，为描述经历早期故障和耗损故障且故障强度随工作时间增加而趋近于某一常数的数控机床故障过程，提出一种新的4参数非齐次泊松过程模型。讨论模型的特性，给出模型中各参数的物理意义，推导计算模型参数及诸如最小故障强度、最小故障强度对应的故障时刻等重要可靠性指标点估计的计算公式，基于似然比检验理论，给出两台数控机床可靠性评估的模型选择方法，并基于拟合优度检验指标R，给出模型评价准则。对两台数控机床故障数据进行分析，结果表明，该模型可定量评估机床的早期故障期
Confidence intervals for maximal reliability of probability judgments
K.Y. Lam (Kar Yin); A.J. Koning (Alex); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)
2007-01-01
textabstractSubjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probab
Using tolerance bounds in scientific investigations
Wendelberger, J.R.
1996-07-01
Assessment of the variability in population values plays an important role in the analysis of scientific data. Analysis of scientific data often involves developing a bound on a proportion of a population. Sometimes simple probability bounds are obtained using formulas involving known mean and variance parameters and replacing the parameters by sample estimates. The resulting bounds are only approximate and fail to account for the variability in the estimated parameters. Tolerance bounds provide bounds on population proportions which account for the variation resulting from the estimated mean and variance parameters. A beta content, gamma confidence tolerance interval is constructed so that a proportion beta of the population lies within the region bounded by the interval with confidence gamma. An application involving corrosion measurements is used to illustrate the use of tolerance bounds for different situations. Extensions of standard tolerance intervals are applied to generate regression tolerance bounds, tolerance bounds for more general models of measurements collected over time, and tolerance intervals for varying precision data. Tolerance bounds also provide useful information for designing the collection of future data.
Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions
Zylberberg, A.; Roelfsema, Pieter R; Sigman, Mariano
Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments
Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.
Aitchison, L.; Bang, D; Bahrami, B.; Latham, P.E.
2015-01-01
Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we te...
Christensen, Steen
2017-02-01
This paper derives and tests methods to correct regression-based confidence and prediction intervals for groundwater models that neglect sub-parameterization heterogeneity within the hydraulic property fields of the groundwater system. Several levels of knowledge and uncertainty about the system are considered. It is shown by a two-dimensional groundwater flow example that when reliable probabilistic models are available for the property fields, the corrected confidence and prediction intervals are nearly accurate; when the probabilistic models must be suggested from subjective judgment, the corrected confidence intervals are likely to be much more accurate than their uncorrected counterparts; when no probabilistic information is available then conservative bound values can be used to correct the intervals but they are likely to be very wide. The paper also shows how confidence and prediction intervals can be computed and corrected when the weights applied to the data are estimated as part of the regression. It is demonstrated that in this case it cannot be guaranteed that applying the conservative bound values will lead to conservative confidence and prediction intervals. Finally, it is demonstrated by the two-dimensional flow example that the accuracy of the corrected confidence and prediction intervals deteriorates for very large covariance of the log-transmissivity field, and particularly when the weight matrix differs from the inverse total error covariance matrix. It is argued that such deterioration is less likely to happen for three-dimensional groundwater flow systems.
Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional
Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl
While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...
Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance
Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun
2008-01-01
This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…
Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance
Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun
2008-01-01
This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…
Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals
Curran-Everett, Douglas
2009-01-01
Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…
Bousquet, Nicolas
2010-01-01
This article deals with the estimation of a probability p of an undesirable event. Its occurence is formalized by the exceedance of a threshold reliability value by the unidimensional output of a time-consuming computer code G with multivariate probabilistic input X. When G is assumed monotonous with respect to X, the Monotonous Reliability Method was proposed by de Rocquigny (2009) in an engineering context to provide sequentially narrowing 100%-confidence bounds and a crude estimate of p, via deterministic or stochastic designs of experiments. The present article consists in a formalization and technical deepening of this idea, as a large basis for future theoretical and applied studies. Three kinds of results are especially emphasized. First, the bounds themselves remain too crude and conservative estimators of p for a dimension of X upper than 2. Second, a maximum-likelihood estimator of p can be easily built, presenting a high variance reduction with respect to a standard Monte Carlo case, but suffering ...
2017 NREL Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop
Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-08-15
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology -- both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?
Horn, Gustav Adolf
2003-01-01
One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance of asymmetric reactions is tested. The results show that there is a relationship bet...
Reliability and safety engineering
Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao
2016-01-01
Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...
Horne, Jane C; Lincoln, Nadina B; Logan, Pip A
2017-04-01
To design, develop and psychometrically evaluate a stroke-specific measure of confidence, the Confidence after Stroke Measure (CaSM). Cross-sectional. Adults in the community. Stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants. Questionnaire items were generated based on the literature and qualitative interviews and piloted with expert groups to establish face validity. A 53-item CaSM was administered to stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants in the community. A second copy was posted four weeks later. Completed questionnaires were analysed for extreme responses, missing values, construct validity (factor analysis), convergent validity, divergent validity, reliability (internal consistency and temporal stability) and comparing responses according to age and gender. Stroke ( n = 101) and healthy elderly participants ( n = 101) returned questionnaires. Eight items were removed that had extreme responses and large numbers of missing values. Six items had item total correlations Confidence, Positive Attitude and Social Confidence, which explained 52% of variance. Cronbach's alpha coefficient demonstrated good internal consistency ( α = 0.94). A test re-test on the 27 items indicated good temporal stability ( r = 0.85, P = 0.001). The 27-item CaSM was a valid and reliable measure for assessing confidence in stroke survivors.
Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc
2015-01-01
Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo
Synthesis of Reliable Telecommunication Networks
Dusan Trstensky
2005-01-01
Full Text Available In many application, the network designer may to know to senthesise a reliable telecommunication network. Assume that a network, denoted Gm,e has the number of nodes n and the number of edges e, and the operational probability of each edge is known. The system reliability of the network is defined to be the reliability that every pair of nodes can communicate with each other. A network synthesis problem considered in this paper is to find a network G*n,e, that maximises system reliability over the class of all networks for the classes of networks Gn,n-1, Gn,m and Gn,n+1 respectively. In addition an upper bound of maximum reliability for the networks with n-node and e-edge (e>n+2 is derived in terms of node. Computational experiments for the reliability upper are also presented. the results show, that the proposed reliability upper bound is effective.
Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.
Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew
2015-01-01
with a newfound respect for their suppliers, and it will allow manufacturers to finally address true root causes that can lead to a marked increase in product confidence. In the past decade, pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers have increased their focus on controlling and managing the performance of their suppliers in an effort to improve the confidence of the materials going into the final marketed products and to improve patient and customer confidence in final product reliability and safety. Concerned that product confidence has not improved, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials. Through this initiative, data generated has revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. Product confidence can be improved by shifting the focus from controlling supplier practices to controlling the practices of the manufacturers themselves. © PDA, Inc. 2015.
Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction
Mejer, Avihai
2011-01-01
Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...
Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?
Mirjana Čižmešija
2016-04-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.
Confidence scores for prediction models
Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA
2011-01-01
modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...
APPLICATION OF ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE ESTIMATION
Valeriy S. Ayzatullen
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The socio-economic category of “trust” is studied in the article. The analysis of the existing views about the term “trust” was conducted. A model of the interaction of “Power - Business - People”, using the concept of “trust”, was made. The application and the structure of confidence estimations in economy and politics are studied. The accumulated experience of application of confidence estimations in the macroeconomics of the major countries of the world was showed. The current weaknesses of the confidence indexes are reflected.
Recursive confidence band construction for an unknown distribution function.
Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J
2015-01-01
Given a sample X1,...,Xn of independent observations from an unknown continuous distribution function F, the problem of constructing a confidence band for F is considered, which is a fundamental problem in statistical inference. This confidence band provides simultaneous inferences on all quantiles and also on all of the cumulative probabilities of the distribution, and so they are among the most important inference procedures that address the issue of multiplicity. A fully nonparametric approach is taken where no assumptions are made about the distribution function F. Historical approaches to this problem, such as Kolmogorov's famous () procedure, represent some of the earliest inference methodologies that address the issue of multiplicity. This is because a confidence band at a given confidence level 1-α allows inferences on all of the quantiles of the distribution, and also on all of the cumulative probabilities, at that specified confidence level. In this paper it is shown how recursive methodologies can be employed to construct both one-sided and two-sided confidence bands of various types. The first approach operates by putting bounds on the cumulative probabilities at the data points, and a recursive integration approach is described. The second approach operates by providing bounds on certain specified quantiles of the distribution, and its implementation using recursive summations of multinomial probabilities is described. These recursive methodologies are illustrated with examples, and R code is available for their implementation.
Confidence and the business cycle
Sylvain Leduc
2010-01-01
The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a...
Regaining confidence in confidence intervals for the mean treatment effect.
O'Gorman, Thomas W
2014-09-28
In many experiments, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment by comparing the responses of two groups of subjects. This evaluation is often performed by using a confidence interval for the difference between the population means. To compute the limits of this confidence interval, researchers usually use the pooled t formulas, which are derived by assuming normally distributed errors. When the normality assumption does not seem reasonable, the researcher may have little confidence in the confidence interval because the actual one-sided coverage probability may not be close to the nominal coverage probability. This problem can be avoided by using the Robbins-Monro iterative search method to calculate the limits. One problem with this iterative procedure is that it is not clear when the procedure produces a sufficiently accurate estimate of a limit. In this paper, we describe a multiple search method that allows the user to specify the accuracy of the limits. We also give guidance concerning the number of iterations that would typically be needed to achieve a specified accuracy. This multiple iterative search method will produce limits for one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals that maintain their coverage probabilities with non-normal distributions.
Overdistribution illusions: Categorical judgments produce them, confidence ratings reduce them.
Brainerd, C J; Nakamura, K; Reyna, V F; Holliday, R E
2017-01-01
Overdistribution is a form of memory distortion in which an event is remembered as belonging to too many episodic states, states that are logically or empirically incompatible with each other. We investigated a response formatting method of suppressing 2 basic types of overdistribution, disjunction and conjunction illusions, which parallel some classic illusions in the judgment and decision making literature. In this method, subjects respond to memory probes by rating their confidence that test cues belong to specific episodic states (e.g., presented on List 1, presented on List 2), rather than by making the usual categorical judgments about those states. The central prediction, which was derived from the task calibration principle of fuzzy-trace theory, was that confidence ratings should reduce overdistribution by diminishing subjects' reliance on noncompensatory gist memories. The data of 3 experiments agreed with that prediction. In Experiment 1, there were reliable disjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. In Experiment 2, both response formats produced reliable disjunction illusions, but those for confidence ratings were much smaller than those for categorical judgments. In Experiment 3, there were reliable conjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. Apropos of recent controversies over confidence-accuracy correlations in memory, such correlations were positive for hits, negative for correct rejections, and the 2 types of correlations were of equal magnitude. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval
Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George
1992-01-01
The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...
Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval
Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George
1992-01-01
The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...
Professional confidence: a concept analysis.
Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana
2012-03-01
Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.
Viscosity bound versus the universal relaxation bound
Hod, Shahar
2017-10-01
For gauge theories with an Einstein gravity dual, the AdS/CFT correspondence predicts a universal value for the ratio of the shear viscosity to the entropy density, η / s = 1 / 4 π. The holographic calculations have motivated the formulation of the celebrated KSS conjecture, according to which all fluids conform to the lower bound η / s ≥ 1 / 4 π. The bound on η / s may be regarded as a lower bound on the relaxation properties of perturbed fluids and it has been the focus of much recent attention. In particular, it was argued that for a class of field theories with Gauss-Bonnet gravity dual, the shear viscosity to entropy density ratio, η / s, could violate the conjectured KSS bound. In the present paper we argue that the proposed violations of the KSS bound are strongly constrained by Bekenstein's generalized second law (GSL) of thermodynamics. In particular, it is shown that physical consistency of the Gauss-Bonnet theory with the GSL requires its coupling constant to be bounded by λGB ≲ 0 . 063. We further argue that the genuine physical bound on the relaxation properties of physically consistent fluids is ℑω(k > 2 πT) > πT, where ω and k are respectively the proper frequency and the wavenumber of a perturbation mode in the fluid.
Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale
McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven
2006-01-01
The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…
The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals
Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Lee, Michael D.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2016-01-01
Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true
The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals
Morey, R.D.; Hoekstra, R.; Rouder, J.N.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.
Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true
任丽娜; 任帅; 王先芝; 刘宇
2014-01-01
This paper presented a reliability assessment method for numerical control machine tool based on bounded bathtub in-tensity process (BBIP)model.The method can assess the whole lifecycle reliability of numerical control (NC)machine tools in minimal repair.Bounded bathtub intensity function of failure times was built,and a formula for calculating the lasting time of ear-ly failure period was derived.The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)for model parameters and reliability indices were given. The failure process of a single NC machine tool with failure truncation was analyzed.The results show that the lasting time of early failure period for NC machine tool is about 5 months.The estimated time is basically consistent with the actual situation.It is demonstrated that BBIP model can accurately evaluate the lasting time of early failure period and can provide a theoretical basis for improving the reliability of NC machine tools.%在最小维修情况下，为实现数控机床的全寿命周期可靠性评估，提出基于边界浴盆强度过程（bounded bathtub intensity process，BBIP）模型的数控机床可靠性评估方法。建立了故障时间的边界浴盆强度函数式，推导了早期故障期持续时间的计算公式，并给出了模型参数和可靠性指标的极大似然点估计。采用该评估方法分析了单台数控机床故障截尾的故障过程，结果表明：该数控机床早期故障期的持续时间大约为5个月，与机床的实际情况基本一致，说明BBIP模型可准确地评估早期故障期的持续时间，为提高机床可靠性提供了一定的理论依据。
Functions of bounded variation
Lind, Martin
2006-01-01
The paper begins with a short survey of monotone functions. The functions of bounded variation are introduced and some basic properties of these functions are given. Finally the jump function of a function of bounded variation is defined.
Felker, Susan B.
2005-01-01
Robert Cobb Jr., of Greensboro, N.C., a 1986-89 participant in the Virginia Tech Upward Bound program, was recently named Virginia's TRIO Achiever for 2004. Federal TRIO programs include Upward Bound and Educational Talent Search.
Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador
2014-05-01
In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making.
Hartzell, Allyson L; Shea, Herbert R
2010-01-01
This book focuses on the reliability and manufacturability of MEMS at a fundamental level. It demonstrates how to design MEMs for reliability and provides detailed information on the different types of failure modes and how to avoid them.
Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals
Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2014-01-01
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more
Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals
Hoekstra, R.; Morey, R.D.; Rouder, J.N.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.
2014-01-01
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more
Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates
While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...
Bendell, A
1986-01-01
Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo
Eliminative Argumentation: A Basis for Arguing Confidence in System Properties
2015-02-01
for all i ≠ j. Such structures have been called “multi-legged arguments” in the assurance case literature [ Bloomfield 2003] or “convergent” arguments...example and show how to develop a well- formed confidence map. In particular, we consider alternative argumentation structures. Bloomfield and...3 and we are 99% certain that 10−3 is an upper bound on the failure rate [ Bloomfield 2003]. Such a claim is statistically jus- tified if 4,603
Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy
Edwin Le Heron
2006-12-01
Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.
Self-Confidence & Social Interactions
Bénabou, Roland; Tirole, Jean
2000-01-01
This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self-esteem and his social environment - in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self--confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering paymen...
Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition
Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James
2010-01-01
Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).
Step-up related simultaneous confidence intervals for MCC and MCB.
Finner, Helmut; Strassburger, Klaus
2007-02-01
The derivation of compatible confidence bounds related to stepwise decision procedures is a serious issue. Especially the derivation of step-up related bounds is rather complex. In this article we consider (one-sided) multiple comparisons with a control (MCC) and multiple comparisons with the best (MCB) with the aim of establishing delta-equivalence to the best and derive step-up related confidence bounds by applying the projection method proposed in Finner and Strassburger (2006). Some examples illustrate the resulting procedures.
Supervised and Unsupervised Speaker Adaptation Using Confidence Measure
LIUJia; LIHusheng; LIUJing; LIURunsheng
2003-01-01
The speaker adaptation is an effective means of improving the performance of a speech recognition system,and it can be divided into supervised or unsupervised speaker adaptation.In this paper a kind of confidence measure based on the word lattice structure is proposed and is used for the supervised and unsupervised speaker adaptation.The reliability of the recognition results can be evaluated by the confidence measure,and the uncertain parts in the recognition results can be removed or be given smaller weights in the speaker adaptation process.The experiments show that the confidence can effectively eliminate the suspicious speech and improve the performance of the supervised and unsupervised adaptation considerably.The performance difference between the supervised and unsupervised adaptation is reduced by using the confidence measure based on the word lattice structure.
A Reformulation of Support Vector Machines for General Confidence Functions
Guo, Yuhong; Schuurmans, Dale
We present a generalized view of support vector machines that does not rely on a Euclidean geometric interpretation nor even positive semidefinite kernels. We base our development instead on the confidence matrix—the matrix normally determined by the direct (Hadamard) product of the kernel matrix with the label outer-product matrix. It turns out that alternative forms of confidence matrices are possible, and indeed useful. By focusing on the confidence matrix instead of the underlying kernel, we can derive an intuitive principle for optimizing example weights to yield robust classifiers. Our principle initially recovers the standard quadratic SVM training criterion, which is only convex for kernel-derived confidence measures. However, given our generalized view, we are then able to derive a principled relaxation of the SVM criterion that yields a convex upper bound. This relaxation is always convex and can be solved with a linear program. Our new training procedure obtains similar generalization performance to standard SVMs on kernel-derived confidence functions, but achieves even better results with indefinite confidence functions.
Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)
Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-03-19
This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.
2016 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop
Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-09-07
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
2015 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshops
Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-09-14
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
de Rham, Claudia; Tolley, Andrew J; Zhou, Shuang-Yong
2016-01-01
Recently, aLIGO has announced the first direct detections of gravitational waves, a direct manifestation of the propagating degrees of freedom of gravity. The detected signals GW150914 and GW151226 have been used to examine the basic properties of these gravitational degrees of freedom, particularly setting an upper bound on their mass. It is timely to review what the mass of these gravitational degrees of freedom means from the theoretical point of view, particularly taking into account the recent developments in constructing consistent massive gravity theories. Apart from the GW150914 mass bound, a few other observational bounds have been established from the effects of the Yukawa potential, modified dispersion relation and fifth force that are all induced when the fundamental gravitational degrees of freedom are massive. We review these different mass bounds and examine how they stand in the wake of recent theoretical developments and how they compare to the bound from GW150914.
Bounding species distribution models
Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].
Bounding Species Distribution Models
Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.
2011-01-01
Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].
Confidence sets for network structure
Airoldi, Edoardo M; Wolfe, Patrick J
2011-01-01
Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of 'residual' network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific...
Lazzaroni, Massimo
2012-01-01
This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be
Fusing photovoltaic data for improved confidence intervals
Ansgar Steland
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Characterizing and testing photovoltaic modules requires carefully made measurements on important variables such as the power output under standard conditions. When additional data is available, which has been collected using a different measurement system and therefore may be of different accuracy, the question arises how one can combine the information present in both data sets. In some cases one even has prior knowledge about the ordering of the variances of the measurement errors, which is not fully taken into account by commonly known estimators. We discuss several statistical estimators to combine the sample means of independent series of measurements, both under the assumption of heterogeneous variances and ordered variances. The critical issue is then to assess the estimator’s variance and to construct confidence intervals. We propose and discuss the application of a new jackknife variance estimator devised by [1] to such photovoltaic data, in order to assess the variability of common mean estimation under heterogeneous and ordered variances in a reliable and nonparametric way. When serial correlations are present, which usually a ect the marginal variances, it is proposed to construct a thinned data set by downsampling the series in such a way that autocorrelations are removed or dampened. We propose a data adaptive procedure which downsamples a series at irregularly spaced time points in such a way that the autocorrelations are minimized. The procedures are illustrated by applying them to real photovoltaic power output measurements from two different sun light flashers. In addition, focusing on simulations governed by real photovoltaic data, we investigate the accuracy of the jackknife approach and compare it with other approaches. Among those is a variance estimator based on Nair’s formula for Gaussian data and, as a parametric alternative, two Bayesian models. We investigate the statistical accuracy of the resulting confidence
Multicolor Bound Soliton Molecule
Luo, Rui; Lin, Qiang
2015-01-01
We show a new class of bound soliton molecule that exists in a parametrically driven nonlinear optical cavity with appropriate dispersion characteristics. The composed solitons exhibit distinctive colors but coincide in time and share a common phase, bound together via strong inter-soliton four-wave mixing and Cherenkov radiation. The multicolor bound soliton molecule shows intriguing spectral locking characteristics and remarkable capability of spectrum management to tailor soliton frequencies, which may open up a great avenue towards versatile generation and manipulation of multi-octave spanning phase-locked Kerr frequency combs, with great potential for applications in frequency metrology, optical frequency synthesis, and spectroscopy.
Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.
Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2014-10-01
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.
Combining one-sample confidence procedures for inference in the two-sample case.
Fay, Michael P; Proschan, Michael A; Brittain, Erica
2015-03-01
We present a simple general method for combining two one-sample confidence procedures to obtain inferences in the two-sample problem. Some applications give striking connections to established methods; for example, combining exact binomial confidence procedures gives new confidence intervals on the difference or ratio of proportions that match inferences using Fisher's exact test, and numeric studies show the associated confidence intervals bound the type I error rate. Combining exact one-sample Poisson confidence procedures recreates standard confidence intervals on the ratio, and introduces new ones for the difference. Combining confidence procedures associated with one-sample t-tests recreates the Behrens-Fisher intervals. Other applications provide new confidence intervals with fewer assumptions than previously needed. For example, the method creates new confidence intervals on the difference in medians that do not require shift and continuity assumptions. We create a new confidence interval for the difference between two survival distributions at a fixed time point when there is independent censoring by combining the recently developed beta product confidence procedure for each single sample. The resulting interval is designed to guarantee coverage regardless of sample size or censoring distribution, and produces equivalent inferences to Fisher's exact test when there is no censoring. We show theoretically that when combining intervals asymptotically equivalent to normal intervals, our method has asymptotically accurate coverage. Importantly, all situations studied suggest guaranteed nominal coverage for our new interval whenever the original confidence procedures themselves guarantee coverage.
Towards Bounded Infeasible Code Detection
Christ, Jürgen; Schäf, Martin
2012-01-01
A first step towards more reliable software is to execute each statement and each control-flow path in a method once. In this paper, we present a formal method to automatically compute test cases for this purpose based on the idea of a bounded infeasible code detection. The method first unwinds all loops in a program finitely often and then encodes all feasible executions of the loop-free programs in a logical formula. Helper variables are introduced such that a theorem prover can reconstruct the control-flow path of a feasible execution from a satisfying valuation of this formula. Based on this formula, we present one algorithm that computes a feasible path cover and one algorithm that computes a feasible statement cover. We show that the algorithms are complete for loop-free programs and that they can be implemented efficiently. We further provide a sound algorithm to compute procedure summaries which makes the method scalable to larger programs.
Lim, Koeun; Wang, Wei; Merfeld, Daniel M
2017-07-26
Humans can subjectively yet quantitatively assess choice confidence based on perceptual precision even when a perceptual decision is made without an immediate reward or feedback. However, surprisingly little is known about choice confidence. Here we investigate the dynamics of choice confidence by merging two parallel conceptual frameworks of decision-making, signal detection theory and sequential analyses (i.e., drift diffusion modeling). Specifically, in order to capture end-point statistics of binary choice and confidence, we built on a previous study that defined choice confidence in terms of psychophysics derived from signal detection theory. At the same time, we augmented this mathematical model to include accumulator dynamics of a drift-diffusion model to characterize the time-dependency of the choice behaviors in a standard forced-choice paradigm in which stimulus duration is controlled by the operator. Human subjects performed a subjective visual vertical task, simultaneously reporting binary orientation choice and probabilistic confidence. Both binary choice and confidence experimental data displayed statistics and dynamics consistent with both signal detection theory and evidence accumulation, respectively. Specifically, the computational simulations showed that the unbounded evidence accumulator model fits the confidence data better than the classical bounded model, while bounded and unbounded models were indistinguishable for binary choice data. These results suggest that the brain can utilize mechanisms consistent with signal detection theory - especially when judging confidence without time pressure. Copyright © 2017, Journal of Neurophysiology.
Pereira, Lívia W; Bernardi, Juliana R; Matos, Salete de; Silva, Clecio H da; Goldani, Marcelo Z; Bosa, Vera L
2017-08-23
To transculturally adapt and validate the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale to the Brazilian Portuguese language and culture and verify the combination of the results with the maternal sociodemographic characteristics. This is a validation and transcultural adaptation nestled in a longitudinal and observational study in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, assessing mother-infant pairs from different gestational and perinatal environments. The original authors authorized the translation into Brazilian Portuguese, unified version creation, back-translation, analysis by specialists, final version implementation, and acceptance. Cronbach's alpha analysis was performed. The Kruskal-Wallis test with post-hoc Dunn's test was used to compare the study groups. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, obtained through a questionnaire in the first 24-48h of the newborns' life, were associated with maternal results by the Brazilian version of the scale, using Spearman's correlation and Mann-Whitney's test. The sample consisted of 251 postpartum women, with the confidence maternal questionnaire being applied at 15 days postpartum. The median score of the mothers' confidence was 40.00 (37.00-43.00). The protocol obtained a Cronbach's alpha of 0.717. There were significant weak positive correlations between maternal confidence and age (p=0.013, r=0.157) and between maternal confidence and schooling (p=0.048, r=0.125). Additionally, a significant association was observed between maternal confidence and parity (p=0.030). The transcultural adaptation and validation of the confidence maternal questionnaire into Brazilian Portuguese language and culture showed good reliability for this sample. The results of its use demonstrated that maternal confidence was associated with schooling, age and parity. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.
High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs
Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...
Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments
Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni
2011-01-01
This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...
A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.
Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam
2016-09-01
Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations.
Accuracy, Confidence, and Calibration: How Young Children and Adults Assess Credibility
Tenney, Elizabeth R.; Small, Jenna E.; Kondrad, Robyn L.; Jaswal, Vikram K.; Spellman, Barbara A.
2011-01-01
Do children and adults use the same cues to judge whether someone is a reliable source of information? In 4 experiments, we investigated whether children (ages 5 and 6) and adults used information regarding accuracy, confidence, and calibration (i.e., how well an informant's confidence predicts the likelihood of being correct) to judge informants'…
Status and Confidence, in the Lab
Jeffrey V. Butler
2009-01-01
It is widely recognized that confidence can have important economic consequences. While most of the focus has been on overconfidence, systematic variation in confidence can imply systematic variation in economic outcomes. Intriguingly, sociological and social psychological research suggests that being on the wrong side of inequality undermines confidence. This paper examines the link between inequality and confidence in a controlled, incentive-compatible laboratory setting. Inequality was int...
A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems
2008-09-01
M.U. Thomas Date Dean, Graduate School of Engineering and Management Table of Contents Page List of Figures...Plato, Aristotle, Plotinus, St Augustine, St Aquinas , Machi- avelli, Descartes, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Kant, Marx, Mill, Confucius) discuss having...independence, and aggregation of confidence is a linear summation of individual confidence values. Thomas and Allcock [61] develop a statistical confidence
Hoyer, Paul
2016-01-01
Even a first approximation of bound states requires contributions of all powers in the coupling. This means that the concept of "lowest order bound state" needs to be defined. In these lectures I discuss the "Born" (no loop, lowest order in $\\hbar$) approximation. Born level states are bound by gauge fields which satisfy the classical field equations. As a check of the method, Positronium states of any momentum are determined as eigenstates of the QED Hamiltonian, quantized at equal time. Analogously, states bound by a strong external field $A^\\mu(\\xv)$ are found as eigenstates of the Dirac Hamiltonian. Their Fock states have dynamically created $e^+e^-$ pairs, whose distribution is determined by the Dirac wave function. The linear potential of $D=1+1$ dimensions confines electrons but repels positrons. As a result, the mass spectrum is continuous and the wave functions have features of both bound states and plane waves. The classical solutions of Gauss' law are explored for hadrons in QCD. A non-vanishing bo...
Bounding species distribution models
Thomas J. STOHLGREN; Catherine S. JARNEVICH; Wayne E. ESAIAS; Jeffrey T. MORISETTE
2011-01-01
Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern.Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development,yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations.We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches:classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models,and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations,bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors,to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States.Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding,and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models,like those presented here,should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5):642-647,2011].
How to beat the sphere-packing bound with feedback
Sahai, Anant
2006-01-01
The sphere-packing bound $E_{sp}(R)$ bounds the reliability function for fixed-length block-codes. For symmetric channels, it remains a valid bound even when strictly causal noiseless feedback is allowed from the decoder to the encoder. To beat the bound, the problem must be changed. While it has long been known that variable-length block codes can do better when trading-off error probability with expected block-length, this correspondence shows that the {\\em fixed-delay} setting also present...
Information, Utility & Bounded Rationality
Ortega, Pedro A
2011-01-01
Perfectly rational decision-makers maximize expected utility, but crucially ignore the resource costs incurred when determining optimal actions. Here we employ an axiomatic framework for bounded rational decision-making based on a thermodynamic interpretation of resource costs as information costs. This leads to a variational "free utility" principle akin to thermodynamical free energy that trades off utility and information costs. We show that bounded optimal control solutions can be derived from this variational principle, which leads in general to stochastic policies. Furthermore, we show that risk-sensitive and robust (minimax) control schemes fall out naturally from this framework if the environment is considered as a bounded rational and perfectly rational opponent, respectively. When resource costs are ignored, the maximum expected utility principle is recovered.
Bounded Computational Capacity Equilibrium
Hernandez, Penelope
2010-01-01
We study repeated games played by players with bounded computational power, where, in contrast to Abreu and Rubisntein (1988), the memory is costly. We prove a folk theorem: the limit set of equilibrium payoffs in mixed strategies, as the cost of memory goes to 0, includes the set of feasible and individually rational payoffs. This result stands in sharp contrast to Abreu and Rubisntein (1988), who proved that when memory is free, the set of equilibrium payoffs in repeated games played by players with bounded computational power is a strict subset of the set of feasible and individually rational payoffs. Our result emphasizes the role of memory cost and of mixing when players have bounded computational power.
Bachoc, Christine; Cohen, Gerard; Sole, Patrick; Tchamkerten, Aslan
2010-01-01
The maximum size of a binary code is studied as a function of its length N, minimum distance D, and minimum codeword weight W. This function B(N,D,W) is first characterized in terms of its exponential growth rate in the limit as N tends to infinity for fixed d=D/N and w=W/N. The exponential growth rate of B(N,D,W) is shown to be equal to the exponential growth rate of A(N,D) for w <= 1/2, and equal to the exponential growth rate of A(N,D,W) for 1/2< w <= 1. Second, analytic and numerical upper bounds on B(N,D,W) are derived using the semidefinite programming (SDP) method. These bounds yield a non-asymptotic improvement of the second Johnson bound and are tight for certain values of the parameters.
The confidence in diabetes self-care scale
Van Der Ven, Nicole C W; Weinger, Katie; Yi, Joyce
2003-01-01
OBJECTIVE: To examine psychometric properties of the Confidence in Diabetes Self-Care (CIDS) scale, a newly developed instrument assessing diabetes-specific self-efficacy in Dutch and U.S. patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Reliability and validity of the CIDS scale were...... evaluated in Dutch (n = 151) and U.S. (n = 190) outpatients with type 1 diabetes. In addition to the CIDS scale, assessment included HbA(1c), emotional distress, fear of hypoglycemia, self-esteem, anxiety, depression, and self-care behavior. The Dutch sample completed additional measures on perceived burden...... and importance of self-care. Test-retest reliability was established in a second Dutch sample (n = 62). RESULTS: Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86 for Dutch patients and 0.90 U.S. patients) and test-retest reliability (Spearman's r = 0.85, P
Carlson, C E; Lebed, R F; Carlson, Carl E.; Carone, Christopher D.; Lebed, Richard F.
2001-01-01
Jurco, Moller, Schraml, Schupp, and Wess have shown how to construct noncommutative SU(N) gauge theories from a consistency relation. Within this framework, we present the Feynman rules for noncommutative QCD and compute explicitly the most dangerous Lorentz-violating operator generated through radiative corrections. We find that interesting effects appear at the one-loop level, in contrast to conventional noncommutative U(N) gauge theories, leading to a stringent bound. Our results are consistent with others appearing recently in the literature that suggest collider limits are not competitive with low-energy tests of Lorentz violation for bounding the scale of spacetime noncommutativity.
Linguistic Weighted Aggregation under Confidence Levels
Chonghui Zhang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We develop some new linguistic aggregation operators based on confidence levels. Firstly, we introduce the confidence linguistic weighted averaging (CLWA operator and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CLOWA operator. These two new linguistic aggregation operators are able to consider the confidence level of the aggregated arguments provided by the information providers. We also study some of their properties. Then, based on the generalized means, we introduce the confidence generalized linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CGLOWA operator. The main advantage of the CGLOWA operator is that it includes a wide range of special cases such as the CLOWA operator, the confidence linguistic ordered weighted quadratic averaging (CLOWQA operator, and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted geometric (CLOWG operator. Finally, we develop an application of the new approach in a multicriteria decision-making under linguistic environment and illustrate it with a numerical example.
Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task.
Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael
2016-01-01
In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence.
2017-01-17
convey any rights or permission to manufacture, use, or sell any patented invention that may relate to them. This report was cleared for public release...testing for reliability prediction of devices exhibiting multiple failure mechanisms. Also presented was an integrated accelerating and measuring ...13 Table 2 T, V, F and matrix versus measured FIT
Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions
Yu Xueping
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence
Yan, Fuhan; Li, Zhaofeng; Jiang, Yichuan
2016-05-01
The issues of modeling and analyzing diffusion in social networks have been extensively studied in the last few decades. Recently, many studies focus on uncertain diffusion process. The uncertainty of diffusion process means that the diffusion probability is unpredicted because of some complex factors. For instance, the variety of individuals' opinions is an important factor that can cause uncertainty of diffusion probability. In detail, the difference between opinions can influence the diffusion probability, and then the evolution of opinions will cause the uncertainty of diffusion probability. It is known that controlling the diffusion process is important in the context of viral marketing and political propaganda. However, previous methods are hardly feasible to control the uncertain diffusion process of individual opinion. In this paper, we present suitable strategy to control this diffusion process based on the approximate estimation of the uncertain factors. We formulate a model in which the diffusion probability is influenced by the distance between opinions, and briefly discuss the properties of the diffusion model. Then, we present an optimization problem at the background of voting to show how to control this uncertain diffusion process. In detail, it is assumed that each individual can choose one of the two candidates or abstention based on his/her opinion. Then, we present strategy to set suitable initiators and their opinions so that the advantage of one candidate will be maximized at the end of diffusion. The results show that traditional influence maximization algorithms are not applicable to this problem, and our algorithm can achieve expected performance.
In current regulatory applications, regional air quality model is applied for a base year and a future year with reduced emissions using the same meteorological conditions. The base year design value is multiplied by the ratio of the average of the top 10 ozone concentrations fo...
Appell, Jürgen; Merentes Díaz, Nelson José
2013-01-01
This monographis a self-contained exposition of the definition and properties of functionsof bounded variation and their various generalizations; the analytical properties of nonlinear composition operators in spaces of such functions; applications to Fourier analysis, nonlinear integral equations, and boundary value problems. The book is written for non-specialists. Every chapter closes with a list of exercises and open problems.
Emiris, Ioannis Z.; Mourrain, Bernard; Tsigaridas, Elias
2010-01-01
of variables. One application is to the bitsize of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of an integer matrix, which also yields a new proof that the problem is polynomial. We also compare against recent lower bounds on the absolute value of the root coordinates by Brownawell and Yap [5], obtained under...
An Optimization-Based Approach to Calculate Confidence Interval on Mean Value with Interval Data
Kais Zaman
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a methodology for construction of confidence interval on mean values with interval data for input variable in uncertainty analysis and design optimization problems. The construction of confidence interval with interval data is known as a combinatorial optimization problem. Finding confidence bounds on the mean with interval data has been generally considered an NP hard problem, because it includes a search among the combinations of multiple values of the variables, including interval endpoints. In this paper, we present efficient algorithms based on continuous optimization to find the confidence interval on mean values with interval data. With numerical experimentation, we show that the proposed confidence bound algorithms are scalable in polynomial time with respect to increasing number of intervals. Several sets of interval data with different numbers of intervals and type of overlap are presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. As against the current practice for the design optimization with interval data that typically implements the constraints on interval variables through the computation of bounds on mean values from the sampled data, the proposed approach of construction of confidence interval enables more complete implementation of design optimization under interval uncertainty.
The Asteroid Identification Problem. II. Target Plane Confidence Boundaries
Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.
1999-08-01
The nominal orbit solution for an asteroid/comet resulting from a least squares fit to astrometric observations is surrounded by a region containing solutions equally compatible with the data, the confidence region. If the observed arc is not too short, and for an epoch close to the observations, the confidence region in the six-dimensional space of orbital elements is well approximated by an ellipsoid. This uncertainty of the orbital elements maps to a position uncertainty at close approach, which can be represented on a Modified Target Plane (MTP), a modification of the one used by Öpik. The MTP is orthogonal to the geocentric velocity at the closest approach point along the nominal orbit. In the linear approximation, the confidence ellipsoids are mapped on the MTP into concentric ellipses, computed by solving the variational equation. For an object observed at only one opposition, however, if the close approach is expected after many revolutions, the ellipses on the MTP become extremely elongated, therefore the linear approximation may fail, and the confidence boundaries on the MTP, by definition the nonlinear images of the confidence ellipsoids, may not be well approximated by the ellipses. In theory the Monte Carlo method by Muinonen and Bowell (1993, Icarus104, 255-279) can be used to compute the nonlinear confidence boundaries, but in practice the computational load is very heavy. We propose a new method to compute semilinear confidence boundaries on the MTP, based on the theory developed by Milani (1999, Icarus137, 269-292) to efficiently compute confidence boundaries for predicted observations. This method is a reasonable compromise between reliability and computational load, and can be used for real time risk assessment. These arguments can be applied to any small body approaching any planet, but in the case of a potentially hazardous object (PHO), either an asteroid or a comet whose orbit comes very close to that of the Earth, the application is most
Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation
Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence
Error bounds from extra precise iterative refinement
Demmel, James; Hida, Yozo; Kahan, William; Li, Xiaoye S.; Mukherjee, Soni; Riedy, E. Jason
2005-02-07
We present the design and testing of an algorithm for iterative refinement of the solution of linear equations, where the residual is computed with extra precision. This algorithm was originally proposed in the 1960s [6, 22] as a means to compute very accurate solutions to all but the most ill-conditioned linear systems of equations. However two obstacles have until now prevented its adoption in standard subroutine libraries like LAPACK: (1) There was no standard way to access the higher precision arithmetic needed to compute residuals, and (2) it was unclear how to compute a reliable error bound for the computed solution. The completion of the new BLAS Technical Forum Standard [5] has recently removed the first obstacle. To overcome the second obstacle, we show how a single application of iterative refinement can be used to compute an error bound in any norm at small cost, and use this to compute both an error bound in the usual infinity norm, and a componentwise relative error bound. We report extensive test results on over 6.2 million matrices of dimension 5, 10, 100, and 1000. As long as a normwise (resp. componentwise) condition number computed by the algorithm is less than 1/max{l_brace}10,{radical}n{r_brace} {var_epsilon}{sub w}, the computed normwise (resp. componentwise) error bound is at most 2 max{l_brace}10,{radical}n{r_brace} {center_dot} {var_epsilon}{sub w}, and indeed bounds the true error. Here, n is the matrix dimension and w is single precision roundoff error. For worse conditioned problems, we get similarly small correct error bounds in over 89.4% of cases.
Consumer confidence or the business cycle
Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper
2014-01-01
Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low....... Consumer confidence and the output gap are also highly positively correlated. In fact, we find that consumer confidence does not contain independent information (i.e. information over and above that contained by the output gap) about expected returns. Our use of European data allows us to examine both...... aggregate European and local-country data on consumer confidence and output gaps. We find that even local-country consumer confidence does not contain independent information about expected returns. Our findings have asset pricing implication: We show taht the cross-country distribution of expected returns...
Murphy, Patrick Charles
1985-01-01
An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.
On Entropy Bounds and Holography
Halyo, Edi
2009-01-01
We show that the holographic entropy bound for gravitational systems and the Bekenstein entropy bound for nongravitational systems are holographically related. Using the AdS/CFT correspondence, we find that the Bekenstein bound on the boundary is obtained from the holographic bound in the bulk by minimizing the boundary energy with respect the AdS radius or the cosmological constant. This relation may also ameliorate some problems associated with the Bekenstein bound.
Intelligence, Self-confidence and Entrepreneurship
Asoni, Andrea
2011-01-01
I investigate the effect of human capital on entrepreneurship using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 1979. I find that individuals with higher measured intelligence and self-confidence are more likely to be entrepreneurs. Furthermore I present evidence suggesting that intelligence and self-confidence affect business ownership through two different channels: intelligence increases business survival while self-confidence increases business creation. Finally, once we control for intel...
Confidence Intervals from One One Observation
Rodriguez, Carlos C
2008-01-01
Robert Machol's surprising result, that from a single observation it is possible to have finite length confidence intervals for the parameters of location-scale models, is re-produced and extended. Two previously unpublished modifications are included. First, Herbert Robbins nonparametric confidence interval is obtained. Second, I introduce a technique for obtaining confidence intervals for the scale parameter of finite length in the logarithmic metric. Keywords: Theory/Foundations , Estimation, Prior Distributions, Non-parametrics & Semi-parametrics Geometry of Inference, Confidence Intervals, Location-Scale models
A model for developing disability confidence.
Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara
2017-05-15
Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.
Bounded Satisfiability for PCTL
Bertrand, Nathalie; Schewe, Sven
2012-01-01
While model checking PCTL for Markov chains is decidable in polynomial-time, the decidability of PCTL satisfiability, as well as its finite model property, are long standing open problems. While general satisfiability is an intriguing challenge from a purely theoretical point of view, we argue that general solutions would not be of interest to practitioners: such solutions could be too big to be implementable or even infinite. Inspired by bounded synthesis techniques, we turn to the more applied problem of seeking models of a bounded size: we restrict our search to implementable -- and therefore reasonably simple -- models. We propose a procedure to decide whether or not a given PCTL formula has an implementable model by reducing it to an SMT problem. We have implemented our techniques and found that they can be applied to the practical problem of sanity checking -- a procedure that allows a system designer to check whether their formula has an unexpectedly small model.
Reaching Fleming's dicrimination bound
Gruebl, Gebhard
2012-01-01
Any rule for identifying a quantum system's state within a set of two non-orthogonal pure states by a single measurement is flawed. It has a non-zero probability of either yielding the wrong result or leaving the query undecided. This also holds if the measurement of an observable $A$ is repeated on a finite sample of $n$ state copies. We formulate a state identification rule for such a sample. This rule's probability of giving the wrong result turns out to be bounded from above by $1/n\\delta_{A}^{2}$ with $\\delta_{A}=|_{1}-_{2}|/(\\Delta_{1}A+\\Delta_{2}A).$ A larger $\\delta_{A}$ results in a smaller upper bound. Yet, according to Fleming, $\\delta_{A}$ cannot exceed $\\tan\\theta$ with $\\theta\\in(0,\\pi/2) $ being the angle between the pure states under consideration. We demonstrate that there exist observables $A$ which reach the bound $\\tan\\theta$ and we determine all of them.
75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update
2010-12-23
... COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 Waste Confidence Decision Update AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Update and final revision of Waste Confidence Decision. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission... update to the Decision were products of rulemaking proceedings designed to assess the degree of...
Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry
Michael Oshins
2014-01-01
Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.
Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry
Michael Oshins
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.
Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions
Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.
2015-01-01
We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the trea
Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...
Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches
Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions
Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.
2015-01-01
We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the
Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children
Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid
2012-01-01
Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…
Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks
List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.
2015-01-01
Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…
Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures
Foster, Colin
2016-01-01
Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…
Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures
Foster, Colin
2016-01-01
Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…
Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children
Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid
2012-01-01
Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…
Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks
List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.
2015-01-01
Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…
Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking
Kramer, Marc M.
2016-01-01
We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.
Overcoming some limitations of imprecise reliability models
Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor
2011-01-01
The application of imprecise reliability models is often hindered by the rapid growth in imprecision that occurs when many components constitute a system and by the fact that time to failure is bounded from above. The latter results in the necessity to explicitly introduce an upper bound on time...... to failure which is in reality a rather arbitrary value. The practical meaning of the models of this kind is brought to question. We suggest an approach that overcomes the issue of having to impose an upper bound on time to failure and makes the calculated lower and upper reliability measures more precise....... The main assumption consists in that failure rate is bounded. Langrage method is used to solve the non-linear program. Finally, an example is provided....
Self-confidence and metacognitive processes
Kleitman Sabina
2005-01-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.
The computation of Buehler confidence limits
FANG; Xiangzhong; CHEN; Jiading
2005-01-01
In medicine and industry, small sample size often arises owing to the high test cost. Then exact confidence inference is important. Buehler confidence limit is a kind of exact confidence limit for the function of parameters in a model. It can be always defined if the order in sample space is given. But the computing problem is often difficult, especially for the cases with high dimension parameter or with incomplete data. This paper presents an algorithm to compute the Buehler confidence limits by EM algorithm. This is the firsttime usage of EM algorithm on Buehler confidence limits, but the algorithm is often used for maximum likelihood estimate in literatures. Three computation examples are given to illustrate the method.
BOUNDING PYRAMIDS AND BOUNDING CONES FOR TRIANGULAR BEZIER SURFACES
Jian-song Deng; Fa-lai Chen; Li-li Wang
2000-01-01
This paper describes practical approaches on how to construct bounding pyramids and bounding cones for triangular Bézier surfaces. Examples are provided to illustrate the process of construction and comparison is made between various surface bounding volumes. Furthermore, as a starting point for the construction,we provide a way to compute hodographs of triangular Bézier surfaces and improve the algorithm for computing the bounding cone of a set of vectors.
Testing the Difference between Reliability Coefficients Alpha and Omega
Deng, Lifang; Chan, Wai
2017-01-01
Reliable measurements are key to social science research. Multiple measures of reliability of the total score have been developed, including coefficient alpha, coefficient omega, the greatest lower bound reliability, and others. Among these, the coefficient alpha has been most widely used, and it is reported in nearly every study involving the…
Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F
2016-12-01
The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Critical SQG in bounded domains
Constantin, Peter; Ignatova, Mihaela
2016-01-01
We consider the critical dissipative SQG equation in bounded domains, with the square root of the Dirichlet Laplacian dissipation. We prove global a priori interior $C^{\\alpha}$ and Lipschitz bounds for large data.
Advanced reliability methods - A review
Forsyth, David S.
2016-02-01
There are a number of challenges to the current practices for Probability of Detection (POD) assessment. Some Nondestructive Testing (NDT) methods, especially those that are image-based, may not provide a simple relationship between a scalar NDT response and a damage size. Some damage types are not easily characterized by a single scalar metric. Other sensing paradigms, such as structural health monitoring, could theoretically replace NDT but require a POD estimate. And the cost of performing large empirical studies to estimate POD can be prohibitive. The response of the research community has been to develop new methods that can be used to generate the same information, POD, in a form that can be used by engineering designers. This paper will highlight approaches to image-based data and complex defects, Model Assisted POD estimation, and Bayesian methods for combining information. This paper will also review the relationship of the POD estimate, confidence bounds, tolerance bounds, and risk assessment.
Maldacena, Juan [School of Natural Sciences, Institute for Advanced Study,1 Einstein Drive, Princeton, NJ (United States); Shenker, Stephen H. [Stanford Institute for Theoretical Physics and Department of Physics, Stanford University,382 Via Pueblo Mall, Stanford, CA (United States); Stanford, Douglas [School of Natural Sciences, Institute for Advanced Study,1 Einstein Drive, Princeton, NJ (United States)
2016-08-17
We conjecture a sharp bound on the rate of growth of chaos in thermal quantum systems with a large number of degrees of freedom. Chaos can be diagnosed using an out-of-time-order correlation function closely related to the commutator of operators separated in time. We conjecture that the influence of chaos on this correlator can develop no faster than exponentially, with Lyapunov exponent λ{sub L}≤2πk{sub B}T/ℏ. We give a precise mathematical argument, based on plausible physical assumptions, establishing this conjecture.
Faupin, Jeremy; Møller, Jacob Schach; Skibsted, Erik
2011-01-01
We study regularity of bound states pertaining to embedded eigenvalues of a self-adjoint operator H, with respect to an auxiliary operator A that is conjugate to H in the sense of Mourre. We work within the framework of singular Mourre theory which enables us to deal with confined massless Pauli–......–Fierz models, our primary example, and many-body AC-Stark Hamiltonians. In the simpler context of regular Mourre theory, our results boil down to an improvement of results obtained recently in [8, 9]....
Maldacena, Juan; Stanford, Douglas
2015-01-01
We conjecture a sharp bound on the rate of growth of chaos in thermal quantum systems with a large number of degrees of freedom. Chaos can be diagnosed using an out-of-time-order correlation function closely related to the commutator of operators separated in time. We conjecture that the influence of chaos on this correlator can develop no faster than exponentially, with Lyapunov exponent $\\lambda_L \\le 2 \\pi k_B T/\\hbar$. We give a precise mathematical argument, based on plausible physical assumptions, establishing this conjecture.
Saiz, P; Rocha, R; Andreeva, J
2007-01-01
We are offering a system to track the efficiency of different components of the GRID. We can study the performance of both the WMS and the data transfers At the moment, we have set different parts of the system for ALICE, ATLAS, CMS and LHCb. None of the components that we have developed are VO specific, therefore it would be very easy to deploy them for any other VO. Our main goal is basically to improve the reliability of the GRID. The main idea is to discover as soon as possible the different problems that have happened, and inform the responsible. Since we study the jobs and transfers issued by real users, we see the same problems that users see. As a matter of fact, we see even more problems than the end user does, since we are also interested in following up the errors that GRID components can overcome by themselves (like for instance, in case of a job failure, resubmitting the job to a different site). This kind of information is very useful to site and VO administrators. They can find out the efficien...
Delay Bounds for Multiclass FIFO
Jiang, Yuming; Misra, Vishal
2016-01-01
FIFO is perhaps the simplest scheduling discipline. For single-class FIFO, its delay guarantee performance has been extensively studied: The well-known results include a stochastic delay bound for $GI/GI/1$ by Kingman and a deterministic delay bound for $D/D/1$ by Cruz. However, for multiclass FIFO, few such results are available. To fill the gap, we prove delay bounds for multiclass FIFO in this work, considering both deterministic and stochastic cases. Specifically, delay bounds are present...
Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments
Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni
2011-01-01
This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...... of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health...
Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming
1992-01-01
they obtain a quadratic bound. These bounds are shown to be tight. Specializing the case of strict and additive functions to functionals of a form that would correspond to iterative programs they show that a linear bound is tight. This is related to several analyses studied in the literature (including...
Error bounds for set inclusions
ZHENG; Xiyin(郑喜印)
2003-01-01
A variant of Robinson-Ursescu Theorem is given in normed spaces. Several error bound theorems for convex inclusions are proved and in particular a positive answer to Li and Singer's conjecture is given under weaker assumption than the assumption required in their conjecture. Perturbation error bounds are also studied. As applications, we study error bounds for convex inequality systems.
Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data
Lachowska, Marta
2013-01-01
The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer confidence contains information relevant to predicting spending, independent from other indicators. T...
Confidence and Construal Framing: When Confidence Increases versus Decreases Information Processing
Echo Wen Wan; Derek D. Rucker
2013-01-01
A large literature demonstrates that people process information more carefully in states of low compared to high confidence. This article presents an alternative hypothesis that either high or low confidence can increase or decrease information processing on the basis of how information is construed. Five experiments demonstrate two sets of findings supporting this alternative formulation. First, low confidence leads people to focus on concrete construals, whereas high confidence leads people...
Multifunctions of bounded variation
Vinter, R. B.
2016-02-01
Consider control systems described by a differential equation with a control term or, more generally, by a differential inclusion with velocity set F (t , x). Certain properties of state trajectories can be derived when it is assumed that F (t , x) is merely measurable w.r.t. the time variable t. But sometimes a refined analysis requires the imposition of stronger hypotheses regarding the time dependence. Stronger forms of necessary conditions for minimizing state trajectories can be derived, for example, when F (t , x) is Lipschitz continuous w.r.t. time. It has recently become apparent that significant addition properties of state trajectories can still be derived, when the Lipschitz continuity hypothesis is replaced by the weaker requirement that F (t , x) has bounded variation w.r.t. time. This paper introduces a new concept of multifunctions F (t , x) that have bounded variation w.r.t. time near a given state trajectory, of special relevance to control. We provide an application to sensitivity analysis.
Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark
2008-09-15
The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre
European Businesses Remain Confident about China
无
2009-01-01
@@ On June 30th, 2009, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey, which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.
Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments
de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal
2015-01-01
Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275
When business is a confidence game.
Hutchinson, J W; Alba, J W
2001-06-01
When it comes to making business decisions, being overconfident about your choices can actually be more harmful than just guessing. Here's how managers can calibrate their confidence levels-and avoid being too sure in the wrong situations.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2014: February 25-26, 2014
Kurtz, S.
2014-02-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2010: February 18-19, 2010
Kurtz, J.
2013-11-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2012: February 28 - March 1, 2012
Kurtz, S.
2013-11-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2011: February 16-17, 2011
Kurtz, S.
2013-11-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2013: February 26-27, 2013
Kurtz, S.
2013-10-01
NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.
Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence
2012-09-01
assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction—the princi- ple (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in...eliminative induction. As first proposed by Francis Bacon [Schum 2001] and extended by L. Jonathan Cohen [Cohen 1970, 1977, 1989], eliminative induction is...eliminative in- duction—the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for
Better Confidence Intervals for Importance Sampling
HALIS SAK; WOLFGANG HÖRMANN; JOSEF LEYDOLD
2010-01-01
It is well known that for highly skewed distributions the standard method of using the t statistic for the confidence interval of the mean does not give robust results. This is an important problem for importance sampling (IS) as its final distribution is often skewed due to a heavy tailed weight distribution. In this paper, we first explain Hall's transformation and its variants to correct the confidence interval of the mean and then evaluate the performance of these methods for two numerica...
Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.
Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven
2013-10-23
The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.
Confidence in value-based choice
De Martino, Benedetto; Fleming, Stephen M.; Garrett, Neil; Dolan, Raymond
2013-01-01
Summary Decisions are never perfect with confidence in one’s choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that an fMRI signal in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflects both value comparison and confidence in the value comparison process. Crucially, individuals varied in how they related confidence to accuracy, allowing us to show that this introspective ability is predicted by a measure of functional connectivity between vmPFC and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (rlPFC). Our findings provide a mechanistic link between noise in value comparison and metacognitive awareness of choice, enabling us both to want and to express knowledge of what we want. PMID:23222911
Calibration with confidence: a principled method for panel assessment
MacKay, R. S.; Low, R. J.; Parker, S.
2017-01-01
Frequently, a set of objects has to be evaluated by a panel of assessors, but not every object is assessed by every assessor. A problem facing such panels is how to take into account different standards among panel members and varying levels of confidence in their scores. Here, a mathematically based algorithm is developed to calibrate the scores of such assessors, addressing both of these issues. The algorithm is based on the connectivity of the graph of assessors and objects evaluated, incorporating declared confidences as weights on its edges. If the graph is sufficiently well connected, relative standards can be inferred by comparing how assessors rate objects they assess in common, weighted by the levels of confidence of each assessment. By removing these biases, ‘true’ values are inferred for all the objects. Reliability estimates for the resulting values are obtained. The algorithm is tested in two case studies: one by computer simulation and another based on realistic evaluation data. The process is compared to the simple averaging procedure in widespread use, and to Fisher's additive incomplete block analysis. It is anticipated that the algorithm will prove useful in a wide variety of situations such as evaluation of the quality of research submitted to national assessment exercises; appraisal of grant proposals submitted to funding panels; ranking of job applicants; and judgement of performances on degree courses wherein candidates can choose from lists of options. PMID:28386432
Nowak, K.; Kästner, M.; Miltner, A.
2009-04-01
During degradation of organic pollutants in soil, metabolites, microbial biomass, CO2and "bound" residues ("non-extractable" residues in soil organic matter) are formed. Enhanced transformation of these contaminants into "bound" residues has been proposed as an alternative remediation method for polluted soils. However, this kind of residues may pose a potential risk for the environment due to their chemical structure and possible remobilization under different conditions. Therefore particular attention is given actually to "bound" residues. Part of these non-extractable residues may be "biogenic," because microorganisms use the carbon from the pollutant to form their biomass components (fatty acids, amino acids, amino sugars), which subsequently may be incorporated into soil organic matter. Furthermore, the CO2 originating from mineralization of xenobiotics, can be re-assimilated by microorganisms and also incorporated into "biogenic residue". The hazard posed by "bound" residues may be overestimated because they are "biogenic" (contain microbial fatty acids and amino acids). The knowledge about the pathways of "biogenic residue" formation is necessary for a proper assessment of the fate of tested pollutants and their turnover in the soil environment. Moreover, these data are needed to establish the realistic degradation rates of the contaminants in soil. The main objectives of this study are: to quantify the extent of "biogenic residue" (fatty acids, amino acids, amino sugars) formation during the degradation of a model pollutant (2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid = 2,4-D) and during CO2 assimilation by microorganisms and to evaluate which components are mainly incorporated into "bound" residues. To investigate the extent of "biogenic residue" formation in soil during the degradation of 2,4-D, experiments with either 14C-U-ring and 13C6-2,4-D or carboxyl-14C 2,4-D were performed. The incubation experiments were performed according to OECD test guideline 307, in the
Rules for confidence intervals of permeability coefficients for water flow in over-broken rock mass
Liu Weiqun; Fei Xiaodong; Fang Jingnian
2012-01-01
Based on the steady-state seepage method,we used the Mechanical Testing and Simulation 815.02 System and a self-designed seepage instrument for over-broken stone to measure seepage properties of water flows in three types of crushed rock samples.Three methods of confidence interval in describing permeability coefficients are presented:the secure interval,the calculated interval and the systemic interval.The lower bound of the secure interval can be applied to water-inrush and the upper bound can solve the problem of connectivity.For the calculated interval,as the axial pressure increases,the length of confidence interval is shortened and the upper and lower bounds are reduced.For the systemic interval,the length of its confidence interval,as well as the upper and lower bounds,clearly vary under low axial pressure but are fairly similar under high axial pressure.These three methods provide useful information and references for analyzing the permeability coefficient of over-broken rock.
Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K
1998-01-01
This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul
ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE
Fernando Luis, Gache
2010-01-01
Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.
Likelihood based observability analysis and confidence intervals for predictions of dynamic models
Kreutz, Clemens; Timmer, Jens
2011-01-01
Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks such as Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) contain unknown parameters like the reaction rate constants and the initial concentrations of the compounds. The large number of parameters as well as their nonlinear impact on the model responses hamper the determination of confidence regions for parameter estimates. At the same time, classical approaches translating the uncertainty of the parameters into confidence intervals for model predictions are hardly feasible. In this article it is shown that a so-called prediction profile likelihood yields reliable confidence intervals for model predictions, despite arbitrarily complex and high-dimensional shapes of the confidence regions for the estimated parameters. Prediction confidence intervals of the dynamic states allow a data-based observability analysis. The approach renders the issue of sampling a high-dimensional parameter space into evaluating one-dimensional prediction spaces. The method is also applicable ...
Evidence for a confidence-accuracy relationship in memory for same- and cross-race faces.
Nguyen, Thao B; Pezdek, Kathy; Wixted, John T
2017-12-01
Discrimination accuracy is usually higher for same- than for cross-race faces, a phenomenon known as the cross-race effect (CRE). According to prior research, the CRE occurs because memories for same- and cross-race faces rely on qualitatively different processes. However, according to a continuous dual-process model of recognition memory, memories that rely on qualitatively different processes do not differ in recognition accuracy when confidence is equated. Thus, although there are differences in overall same- and cross-race discrimination accuracy, confidence-specific accuracy (i.e., recognition accuracy at a particular level of confidence) may not differ. We analysed datasets from four recognition memory studies on same- and cross-race faces to test this hypothesis. Confidence ratings reliably predicted recognition accuracy when performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but not when performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Furthermore, at each level of confidence, confidence-specific accuracy for same- and cross-race faces did not significantly differ when overall performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but significantly differed when overall performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Thus, under certain conditions, high-confidence same-race and cross-race identifications may be equally reliable.
Independent Neural Computation of Value from Other People's Confidence.
Campbell-Meiklejohn, Daniel; Simonsen, Arndis; Frith, Chris D; Daw, Nathaniel D
2017-01-18
understanding of the organization of value across this substantial and varied region. This study finds that using cues of the reliability of other peoples' knowledge to enhance expectation of personal success generates value correlates that are anatomically distinct from those concurrently computed from direct, personal experience. This suggests that representation of decision values in vmPFC is suborganized according to the underlying computation, consistent with what we know about the anatomical heterogeneity of the region. These results also provide insight into the observational learning process by which someone else's confidence can sway and reassure our choices. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/370673-12$15.00/0.
PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.
Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-12-01
The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.
Bounding approaches to system identification
Norton, John; Piet-Lahanier, Hélène; Walter, Éric
1996-01-01
In response to the growing interest in bounding error approaches, the editors of this volume offer the first collection of papers to describe advances in techniques and applications of bounding of the parameters, or state variables, of uncertain dynamical systems. Contributors explore the application of the bounding approach as an alternative to the probabilistic analysis of such systems, relating its importance to robust control-system design.
On functions of bounded variation
Aistleitner, Christoph; Pausinger, Florian; Svane, Anne Marie; Tichy, Robert F.
2015-01-01
The recently introduced concept of $\\mathcal{D}$-variation unifies previous concepts of variation of multivariate functions. In this paper, we give an affirmative answer to the open question from Pausinger \\& Svane (J. Complexity, 2014) whether every function of bounded Hardy--Krause variation is Borel measurable and has bounded $\\mathcal{D}$-variation. Moreover, we show that the space of functions of bounded $\\mathcal{D}$-variation can be turned into a commutative Banach algebra.
Bukh, Boris
2011-01-01
In 2008, Bukh, Matousek, and Nivasch conjectured that for every n-point set S in R^d and every k, 0 <= k <= d-1, there exists a k-flat f in R^d (a "centerflat") that lies at "depth" (k+1) n / (k+d+1) - O(1) in S, in the sense that every halfspace that contains f contains at least that many points of S. This claim is true and tight for k=0 (this is Rado's centerpoint theorem), as well as for k = d-1 (trivial). Bukh et al. showed the existence of a (d-2)-flat at depth (d-1) n / (2d-1) - O(1) (the case k = d-2). In this paper we concentrate on the case k=1 (the case of "centerlines"), in which the conjectured value for the leading constant is 2/(d+2). We prove that 2/(d+2) is an *upper bound* for the leading constant. Specifically, we show that for every fixed d and every n there exists an n-point set in R^d for which no line in R^d lies at depth larger than 2n/(d+2) + o(n). This point set is the "stretched grid"---a set which has been previously used by Bukh et al. for other related purposes.
Quiroz, Jorge; Burdick, Richard K
2009-01-01
Individual agreement between two measurement systems is determined using the total deviation index (TDI) or the coverage probability (CP) criteria as proposed by Lin (2000) and Lin et al. (2002). We used a variance component model as proposed by Choudhary (2007). Using the bootstrap approach, Choudhary (2007), and generalized confidence intervals, we construct bounds on TDI and CP. A simulation study was conducted to assess whether the bounds maintain the stated type I error probability of the test. We also present a computational example to demonstrate the statistical methods described in the paper.
Preparation for high-acuity clinical placement: confidence levels of final-year nursing students
Porter J
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Joanne Porter, Julia Morphet, Karen Missen, Anita Raymond School of Nursing and Midwifery, Monash University, Churchill, VIC, Australia Aim: To measure final-year nursing students’ preparation for high-acuity placement with emphasis on clinical skill performance confidence. Background: Self-confidence has been reported as being a key component for effective clinical performance, and confident students are more likely to be more effective nurses. Clinical skill performance is reported to be the most influential source of self-confidence. Student preparation and skill acquisition are therefore important aspects in ensuring students have successful clinical placements, especially in areas of high acuity. Curriculum development should aim to assist students with their theoretical and clinical preparedness for the clinical environment. Method: A modified pretest/posttest survey design was used to measure the confidence of third-year undergraduate nursing students (n = 318 for placement into a high-acuity clinical setting. The survey comprised four questions related to clinical placement and prospect of participating in a cardiac arrest scenario, and confidence rating levels of skills related to practice in a high-acuity setting. Content and face validity were established by an expert panel (α = 0.90 and reliability was established by the pilot study in 2009. Comparisons were made between confidence levels at the beginning and end of semester. Results: Student confidence to perform individual clinical skills increased over the semester; however their feelings of preparedness for high-acuity clinical placement decreased over the same time period. Reported confidence levels improved with further exposure to clinical placement. Conclusion: There may be many external factors that influence students’ perceptions of confidence and preparedness for practice. Further research is recommended to identify causes of poor self-confidence in final-year nursing
Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan
2012-01-01
It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810
Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan
2012-01-01
It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.
Eugster, P.; Guerraoui, R.; Kouznetsov, P.
2001-01-01
This paper presents a new, non-binary measure of the reliability of broadcast algorithms, called Delta-Reliability. This measure quantifies the reliability of practical broadcast algorithms that, on the one hand, were devised with some form of reliability in mind, but, on the other hand, are not considered reliable according to the ``traditional'' notion of broadcast reliability [HT94]. Our specification of Delta-Reliability suggests a further step towards bridging the gap between theory and...
Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions
Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin
2013-01-01
The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…
Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence
Stefan Jaeger
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.
Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.
Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.
2007-01-01
BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs.
The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations
R.M.W.J. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori
2014-01-01
We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the action-b
The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations
R. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori
2015-01-01
We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on th
Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.
Parker, Douglas A.
This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…
Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.
Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.
2007-01-01
BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs. DESI
Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes
Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.
2000-07-01
We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.
Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes
Aguilar-Saavedra, J A
2000-01-01
We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.
Confidence building in emerging stock markets
Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.
2001-01-01
Investor confidence is a necessary condition for the development of emerging markets. Investors recognize that since market-oriented reform policies may be reversed or hindered, they face the risk of ex post policy changes with redistributive impact on investment returns. We argue that a sustained p
The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations
Beetsma, R.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.
2015-01-01
We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on
Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors
Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher
2010-01-01
Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…
The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations
Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.
2014-01-01
We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the
Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors
Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher
2010-01-01
Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…
Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence
Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.
2016-01-01
The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…
Reliability computation from reliability block diagrams
Chelson, P. O.; Eckstein, E. Y.
1975-01-01
Computer program computes system reliability for very general class of reliability block diagrams. Four factors are considered in calculating probability of system success: active block redundancy, standby block redundancy, partial redundancy, and presence of equivalent blocks in the diagram.
Kodiak: An Implementation Framework for Branch and Bound Algorithms
Smith, Andrew P.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Markevicius, Mantas
2015-01-01
Recursive branch and bound algorithms are often used to refine and isolate solutions to several classes of global optimization problems. A rigorous computation framework for the solution of systems of equations and inequalities involving nonlinear real arithmetic over hyper-rectangular variable and parameter domains is presented. It is derived from a generic branch and bound algorithm that has been formally verified, and utilizes self-validating enclosure methods, namely interval arithmetic and, for polynomials and rational functions, Bernstein expansion. Since bounds computed by these enclosure methods are sound, this approach may be used reliably in software verification tools. Advantage is taken of the partial derivatives of the constraint functions involved in the system, firstly to reduce the branching factor by the use of bisection heuristics and secondly to permit the computation of bifurcation sets for systems of ordinary differential equations. The associated software development, Kodiak, is presented, along with examples of three different branch and bound problem types it implements.
LIU Li-Guo; TIAN Cheng-Lin; CHEN Ping-Xing; YUAN Nai-Chang
2009-01-01
We derive an analytical lower bound on the concurrence for bipartite quantum systems with an improved computable cross norm or realignment criterion and an improved positive partial transpose criterion respectively.Furthermore we demonstrate that our bound is better than that obtained from the local uncertainty relations criterion with optimal local orthogonal observables which is known as one of the best estimations of concurrence.
Bounds for Asian basket options
Deelstra, Griselda; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vanmaele, Michèle
2008-09-01
In this paper we propose pricing bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework. We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach for deriving upper and lower bounds for stop-loss premia of sums of non-independent random variables as in Kaas et al. [Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables, Insurance Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151-168] or Dhaene et al. [The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory, Insurance Math. Econom. 31(1) (2002) 3-33]. We generalize the methods in Deelstra et al. [Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning, Insurance Math. Econom. 34 (2004) 55-57] and Vanmaele et al. [Bounds for the price of discrete sampled arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 185(1) (2006) 51-90]. Afterwards we show how to derive an analytical closed-form expression for a lower bound in the non-comonotonic case. Finally, we derive upper bounds for Asian basket options by applying techniques as in Thompson [Fast narrow bounds on the value of Asian options, Working Paper, University of Cambridge, 1999] and Lord [Partially exact and bounded approximations for arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Finance 10 (2) (2006) 1-52]. Numerical results are included and on the basis of our numerical tests, we explain which method we recommend depending on moneyness and time-to-maturity.
Anaphoric Pronouns and Bound Variables
Wasow, Thomas
1975-01-01
Deals with certain problems inherent in deriving anaphoric pronouns from bound variables. Syntactic rules applied to determine anaphora relations cannot be applied if anaphoric pronouns and their antecedents have identical underlying forms. An approach to anaphora which preserves some advantages of the bound-variable theory without the problems is…
Warren, Richard Daniel
2012-01-01
The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…
Warren, Richard Daniel
2012-01-01
The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…
Confidence interval based parameter estimation--a new SOCR applet and activity.
Nicolas Christou
Full Text Available Many scientific investigations depend on obtaining data-driven, accurate, robust and computationally-tractable parameter estimates. In the face of unavoidable intrinsic variability, there are different algorithmic approaches, prior assumptions and fundamental principles for computing point and interval estimates. Efficient and reliable parameter estimation is critical in making inference about observable experiments, summarizing process characteristics and prediction of experimental behaviors. In this manuscript, we demonstrate simulation, construction, validation and interpretation of confidence intervals, under various assumptions, using the interactive web-based tools provided by the Statistics Online Computational Resource (http://www.SOCR.ucla.edu. Specifically, we present confidence interval examples for population means, with known or unknown population standard deviation; population variance; population proportion (exact and approximate, as well as confidence intervals based on bootstrapping or the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Like all SOCR resources, these confidence interval resources may be openly accessed via an Internet-connected Java-enabled browser. The SOCR confidence interval applet enables the user to empirically explore and investigate the effects of the confidence-level, the sample-size and parameter of interest on the corresponding confidence interval. Two applications of the new interval estimation computational library are presented. The first one is a simulation of confidence interval estimating the US unemployment rate and the second application demonstrates the computations of point and interval estimates of hippocampal surface complexity for Alzheimers disease patients, mild cognitive impairment subjects and asymptomatic controls.
Confidence interval based parameter estimation--a new SOCR applet and activity.
Christou, Nicolas; Dinov, Ivo D
2011-01-01
Many scientific investigations depend on obtaining data-driven, accurate, robust and computationally-tractable parameter estimates. In the face of unavoidable intrinsic variability, there are different algorithmic approaches, prior assumptions and fundamental principles for computing point and interval estimates. Efficient and reliable parameter estimation is critical in making inference about observable experiments, summarizing process characteristics and prediction of experimental behaviors. In this manuscript, we demonstrate simulation, construction, validation and interpretation of confidence intervals, under various assumptions, using the interactive web-based tools provided by the Statistics Online Computational Resource (http://www.SOCR.ucla.edu). Specifically, we present confidence interval examples for population means, with known or unknown population standard deviation; population variance; population proportion (exact and approximate), as well as confidence intervals based on bootstrapping or the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Like all SOCR resources, these confidence interval resources may be openly accessed via an Internet-connected Java-enabled browser. The SOCR confidence interval applet enables the user to empirically explore and investigate the effects of the confidence-level, the sample-size and parameter of interest on the corresponding confidence interval. Two applications of the new interval estimation computational library are presented. The first one is a simulation of confidence interval estimating the US unemployment rate and the second application demonstrates the computations of point and interval estimates of hippocampal surface complexity for Alzheimers disease patients, mild cognitive impairment subjects and asymptomatic controls.
Evolution of heterogeneity (I2) estimates and their 95% confidence intervals in large meta-analyses
Thorlund, Kristian; Imberger, Georgina; Johnston, Bradley C
2012-01-01
by sampling error. Recent studies have raised concerns about the reliability of I(2) estimates, due to their dependence on the precision of included trials and time-dependent biases. Authors have also advocated use of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to express the uncertainty associated with I(2) estimates...
Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.
Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas
2017-05-09
Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.
Market Access through Bound Tariffs
Sala, Davide; Schröder, Philipp J.H.; Yalcin, Erdal
on the risk that exporters face in destination markets. The present paper formalizes the underlying interaction of risk, fixed export costs and firms' market entry decisions based on techniques known from the real options literature; doing so we highlight the important role of bound tariffs at the extensive......WTO negotiations deal predominantly with bound - besides applied - tariff rates. But, how can reductions in tariffs ceilings, i.e. tariff rates that no exporter may ever actually be confronted with, generate market access? The answer to this question relates to the effects of tariff bindings...... margin of trade. We find that bound tariffs are more effective with higher risk destination markets, that a large binding overhang may still command substantial market access, and that reductions in bound tariffs generate effective market access even when bound rates are above current and long...
Market access through bound tariffs
Sala, Davide; Schröder, Philipp J.H.; Yalcin, Erdal
2010-01-01
on the risk that exporters face in destination markets. The present paper formalizes the underlying interaction of risk, fixed export costs and firms' market entry decisions based on techniques known from the real options literature; doing so we highlight the important role of bound tariffs at the extensive......WTO negotiations deal predominantly with bound - besides applied - tariff rates. But, how can reductions in tariffs ceilings, i.e. tariff rates that no exporter may ever actually be confronted with, generate market access? The answer to this question relates to the effects of tariff bindings...... margin of trade. We find that bound tariffs are more effective with higher risk destination markets, that a large binding overhang may still command substantial market access, and that reductions in bound tariffs generate effective market access even when bound rates are above current and longterm...
Asynchronous Bounded Expected Delay Networks
Bakhshi, Rena; Fokkink, Wan; Pang, Jun
2010-01-01
The commonly used asynchronous bounded delay (ABD) network models assume a fixed bound on message delay. We propose a probabilistic network model, called asynchronous bounded expected delay (ABE) model. Instead of a strict bound, the ABE model requires only a bound on the expected message delay. While the conditions of ABD networks restrict the set of possible executions, in ABE networks all asynchronous executions are possible, but executions with extremely long delays are less probable. In contrast to ABD networks, ABE networks cannot be synchronised efficiently. At the example of an election algorithm, we show that the minimal assumptions of ABE networks are sufficient for the development of efficient algorithms. For anonymous, unidirectional ABE rings of known size N we devise a probabilistic leader election algorithm having average message and time complexity O(N).
Confidently estimating the number of DNA replication origins.
Bhaskar, Anand; Keich, Uri
2010-01-01
We present a method for estimating and providing a confidence interval for the number of DNA replication origins in the genome of the yeast Kluyveromyces lactis. The method requires an initial set of verified sites from which a position specific frequency matrix (PSFM) can be constructed. We further assume that we have access to a sparingly used experimental procedure which can verify the functionality of a few, but not all, computationally predicted sites. While our motivation comes from estimating the number of autonomously replicating sequences (ARSs), our method can also be applied to estimating the genome-wide number of "functional" transcription factor binding sites, where functionality is determined by experimental verification of the transcription factor binding event using, for example, ChIP data. The reliability of our method is demonstrated by correctly predicting the known number of Saccharomyces cerevisiae ARSs as well as the number of S. cerevisiae probes that bind to the transcription factor ABF1.
Correlation Coefficients: Mean Bias and Confidence Interval Distortions
Richard L. Gorsuch
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Non-zero correlation coefficients have non-normal distributions, affecting both means and standard deviations. Previous research suggests that z transformation may effectively correct mean bias for N's less than 30. In this study, simulations with small (20 and 30 and large (50 and 100 N's found that mean bias adjustments for larger N's are seldom needed. However, z transformations improved confidence intervals even for N = 100. The improvement was not in the estimated standard errors so much as in the asymmetrical CI's estimates based upon the z transformation. The resulting observed probabilities were generally accurate to within 1 point in the first non-zero digit. These issues are an order of magnitude less important for accuracy than design issues influencing the accuracy of the results, such as reliability, restriction of range, and N. DOI: 10.2458/azu_jmmss.v1i2.114
Reliability-Centric High-Level Synthesis
Tosun, S; Arvas, E; Kandemir, M; Xie, Yuan
2011-01-01
Importance of addressing soft errors in both safety critical applications and commercial consumer products is increasing, mainly due to ever shrinking geometries, higher-density circuits, and employment of power-saving techniques such as voltage scaling and component shut-down. As a result, it is becoming necessary to treat reliability as a first-class citizen in system design. In particular, reliability decisions taken early in system design can have significant benefits in terms of design quality. Motivated by this observation, this paper presents a reliability-centric high-level synthesis approach that addresses the soft error problem. The proposed approach tries to maximize reliability of the design while observing the bounds on area and performance, and makes use of our reliability characterization of hardware components such as adders and multipliers. We implemented the proposed approach, performed experiments with several designs, and compared the results with those obtained by a prior proposal.
Monte Carlo Bayesian System Reliability- and MTBF-Confidence Assessment, II. Volume 1. Theory
1978-03-01
improper Cauchy function as an auxiliary distribution. The gamma generator was originally designed by Marsaglia [2], and it is also incorporated into...Gamma Variates PROCEDURE RGAMA incorporated in SPARCS is based upon a rejection technique called the "squeeze method" designed by Marsaglia [2]. Since...Approximations for Digital Computers, Princeton University Press, 1955. [2] Marsaglia , George. "The Squeeze Method for Generating Gamma Variates
On the improvement of cosmological neutrino mass bounds
Giusarma, Elena; Mena, Olga; Vagnozzi, Sunny; Ho, Shirley; Freese, Katherine
2016-01-01
The most recent measurements of the temperature and low-multipole polarization anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) from the Planck satellite, when combined with galaxy clustering data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) in the form of the full shape of the power spectrum, and with Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurements, provide a $95\\%$ confidence level (CL) upper bound on the sum of the three active neutrinos $\\sum m _\
Xiaozhao Zhao
2014-07-01
Full Text Available The principle of extreme physical information (EPI can be used to derive many known laws and distributions in theoretical physics by extremizing the physical information loss K, i.e., the difference between the observed Fisher information I and the intrinsic information bound J of the physical phenomenon being measured. However, for complex cognitive systems of high dimensionality (e.g., human language processing and image recognition, the information bound J could be excessively larger than I (J ≫ I, due to insufficient observation, which would lead to serious over-fitting problems in the derivation of cognitive models. Moreover, there is a lack of an established exact invariance principle that gives rise to the bound information in universal cognitive systems. This limits the direct application of EPI. To narrow down the gap between I and J, in this paper, we propose a confident-information-first (CIF principle to lower the information bound J by preserving confident parameters and ruling out unreliable or noisy parameters in the probability density function being measured. The confidence of each parameter can be assessed by its contribution to the expected Fisher information distance between the physical phenomenon and its observations. In addition, given a specific parametric representation, this contribution can often be directly assessed by the Fisher information, which establishes a connection with the inverse variance of any unbiased estimate for the parameter via the Cramér–Rao bound. We then consider the dimensionality reduction in the parameter spaces of binary multivariate distributions. We show that the single-layer Boltzmann machine without hidden units (SBM can be derived using the CIF principle. An illustrative experiment is conducted to show how the CIF principle improves the density estimation performance.
Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers
Bleicher, Robert E.
2007-12-01
This study examined changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge could not be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest there may be important connections between the 2 for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.
Confidence leak in perceptual decision-making
Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D’Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan
2015-01-01
We live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that, to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a “continuity field” such that objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of our metacognitive representations. In three experiments we demonstrate a robust inter-task “confidence leak” that cannot be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Observers’ ability to modulate this confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in prefrontal cortex. PMID:26408037
;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure
Rehg, William; Staley, Kent
2017-02-01
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.
Verweij, Jan F.
1993-01-01
Several issue's regarding VLSI reliability research in Europe are discussed. Organizations involved in stimulating the activities on reliability by exchanging information or supporting research programs are described. Within one such program, ESPRIT, a technical interest group on IC reliability was
Learning about confidence intervals with software R
Gariela Gonçalves; Luís Afonso; Marta Ferreira; Teresa Ferro; Nascimento, Maria M.
2013-01-01
This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through t...
Social media sentiment and consumer confidence
Piet J.H. Daas; Puts, Marco J.H.
2014-01-01
Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...
Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations
Navruz, Bilgin; DELEN, Erhan
2014-01-01
In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...
Self-Confidence and Social Interactions
Roland Benabou; Jean Tirole
2000-01-01
This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self esteem and his social environment in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering payments ...
Confidence Sets for a Change-Point.
1986-10-01
probability credible set for j. In fact, even without the explicit evaluation in (1), one knows from a general theorem of Stein (1965) and Hora and...confidence sets with smallest expected measure, Ann. Statist. , 10, 1283-94. Hora , R. B. and Buehler, R. J. (1966), Fiducial theory and invariant...simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem -’-"C with zero -one observations, Biometrika 67, 79-84. Raferty, A. E. and Akman, V
Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng
2016-09-01
Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96Sd and [Formula: see text]+/- 2Sd). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes. © The Author(s) 2016.
Reliability-Based Optimization of Series Systems of Parallel Systems
Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
Reliability-based design of structural systems is considered. Especially systems where the reliability model is a series system of parallel systems are analysed. A sensitivity analysis for this class of problems is presented. Direct and sequential optimization procedures to solve the optimization...... problems are described. Numerical tests indicate that a sequential technique called the bounds iteration method (BIM) is particularly fast and stable....
The Out-bound and In-bound Travelling Market
Emily Yu
2009-01-01
@@ As the Spring Festival of China with a long vocation of seven days nationally is approaching,more and more attention is paid to the out-bound and inn-bound trayeling market.Will people hold their pockets firmly in the"cold winter"of world-wide financial crisis,or will they grab the great discount of traveling and take a good relax?
Combining Alphas via Bounded Regression
Zura Kakushadze
2015-11-01
Full Text Available We give an explicit algorithm and source code for combining alpha streams via bounded regression. In practical applications, typically, there is insufficient history to compute a sample covariance matrix (SCM for a large number of alphas. To compute alpha allocation weights, one then resorts to (weighted regression over SCM principal components. Regression often produces alpha weights with insufficient diversification and/or skewed distribution against, e.g., turnover. This can be rectified by imposing bounds on alpha weights within the regression procedure. Bounded regression can also be applied to stock and other asset portfolio construction. We discuss illustrative examples.
Bounds for Certain Character Sums
杨锦; 郑志勇
2003-01-01
This paper shows a connection between exponential sums and character sums. In particular, we introduce a character sum that is an analog of the classical Kloosterman sums and establish the analogous Weil-Estermann's upper bound for it. The paper also analyzes a generalized Hardy-Littlewood example for character sums, which shows that the upper bounds given here are the best possible. The analysis makes use of local bounds for the exponential sums and character sums. The basic theorems have been previously established.
Zhi-Hong Tao; Cong-Hua Zhou; Zhong Chen; Li-Fu Wang
2007-01-01
Bounded Model Checking has been recently introduced as an efficient verification method for reactive systems.This technique reduces model checking of linear temporal logic to propositional satisfiability.In this paper we first present how quantified Boolean decision procedures can replace BDDs.We introduce a bounded model checking procedure for temporal logic CTL* which reduces model checking to the satisfiability of quantified Boolean formulas.Our new technique avoids the space blow up of BDDs, and extends the concept of bounded model checking.
Confidence Intervals for Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha Values
A.J. Koning (Alex); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)
2003-01-01
textabstractCoefficient Alpha, which is widely used in empirical research, estimates the reliability of a test consisting of parallel items. In practice it is difficult to compare values of alpha across studies as it depends on the number of items used. In this paper we provide a simple solution, wh
The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited
Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods
2009-01-01
Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new longitu
The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited
Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods
2009-01-01
Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new
Formal and Computational Properties of the Confidence Boost of Association Rules
Balcázar, José L
2011-01-01
Some existing notions of redundancy among association rules allow for a logical-style characterization and lead to irredundant bases of absolutely minimum size. One can push the intuition of redundancy further and find an intuitive notion of interest of an association rule, in terms of its "novelty" with respect to other rules. Namely: an irredundant rule is so because its confidence is higher than what the rest of the rules would suggest; then, one can ask: how much higher? We propose to measure such a sort of "novelty" through the confidence boost of a rule, which encompasses two previous similar notions (confidence width and rule blocking, of which the latter is closely related to the earlier measure "improvement"). Acting as a complement to confidence and support, the confidence boost helps to obtain small and crisp sets of mined association rules, and solves the well-known problem that, in certain cases, rules of negative correlation may pass the confidence bound. We analyze the properties of two version...
Confidence sharing: an economic strategy for efficient information flows in animal groups.
Amos Korman
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Social animals may share information to obtain a more complete and accurate picture of their surroundings. However, physical constraints on communication limit the flow of information between interacting individuals in a way that can cause an accumulation of errors and deteriorated collective behaviors. Here, we theoretically study a general model of information sharing within animal groups. We take an algorithmic perspective to identify efficient communication schemes that are, nevertheless, economic in terms of communication, memory and individual internal computation. We present a simple and natural algorithm in which each agent compresses all information it has gathered into a single parameter that represents its confidence in its behavior. Confidence is communicated between agents by means of active signaling. We motivate this model by novel and existing empirical evidences for confidence sharing in animal groups. We rigorously show that this algorithm competes extremely well with the best possible algorithm that operates without any computational constraints. We also show that this algorithm is minimal, in the sense that further reduction in communication may significantly reduce performances. Our proofs rely on the Cramér-Rao bound and on our definition of a Fisher Channel Capacity. We use these concepts to quantify information flows within the group which are then used to obtain lower bounds on collective performance. The abstract nature of our model makes it rigorously solvable and its conclusions highly general. Indeed, our results suggest confidence sharing as a central notion in the context of animal communication.
Confidence sharing: an economic strategy for efficient information flows in animal groups.
Korman, Amos; Greenwald, Efrat; Feinerman, Ofer
2014-10-01
Social animals may share information to obtain a more complete and accurate picture of their surroundings. However, physical constraints on communication limit the flow of information between interacting individuals in a way that can cause an accumulation of errors and deteriorated collective behaviors. Here, we theoretically study a general model of information sharing within animal groups. We take an algorithmic perspective to identify efficient communication schemes that are, nevertheless, economic in terms of communication, memory and individual internal computation. We present a simple and natural algorithm in which each agent compresses all information it has gathered into a single parameter that represents its confidence in its behavior. Confidence is communicated between agents by means of active signaling. We motivate this model by novel and existing empirical evidences for confidence sharing in animal groups. We rigorously show that this algorithm competes extremely well with the best possible algorithm that operates without any computational constraints. We also show that this algorithm is minimal, in the sense that further reduction in communication may significantly reduce performances. Our proofs rely on the Cramér-Rao bound and on our definition of a Fisher Channel Capacity. We use these concepts to quantify information flows within the group which are then used to obtain lower bounds on collective performance. The abstract nature of our model makes it rigorously solvable and its conclusions highly general. Indeed, our results suggest confidence sharing as a central notion in the context of animal communication.
Seismic reliability analysis of large electric power systems
何军; 李杰
2004-01-01
Based on the De. Morgan laws and Boolean simplification, a recursive decomposition method is introduced in this paper to identity the main exclusive safe paths and failed paths of a network. The reliability or the reliability bound of a network can be conveniently expressed as the summation of the joint probabilities of these paths. Under the multivariate normal distribution assumption, a conditioned reliability index method is developed to evaluate joint probabilities of various exclusive safe paths and failed paths, and, finally, the seismic reliability or the reliability bound of an electric power system.Examples given in thc paper show that the method is very simple and provides accurate results in the seismic reliability analysis.
The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.
Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L
2017-05-01
The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).
Computing Constrained Cramer Rao Bounds
Tune, Paul
2012-01-01
We revisit the problem of computing submatrices of the Cram\\'er-Rao bound (CRB), which lower bounds the variance of any unbiased estimator of a vector parameter $\\vth$. We explore iterative methods that avoid direct inversion of the Fisher information matrix, which can be computationally expensive when the dimension of $\\vth$ is large. The computation of the bound is related to the quadratic matrix program, where there are highly efficient methods for solving it. We present several methods, and show that algorithms in prior work are special instances of existing optimization algorithms. Some of these methods converge to the bound monotonically, but in particular, algorithms converging non-monotonically are much faster. We then extend the work to encompass the computation of the CRB when the Fisher information matrix is singular and when the parameter $\\vth$ is subject to constraints. As an application, we consider the design of a data streaming algorithm for network measurement.
An Inequality for Bounded Functions
Kouba, Omran
2012-01-01
In this note we prove optimal inequalities for bounded functions in terms of their deviation from their mean. These results extend and generalize some known inequalities due to Thong (2011) and Perfetti (2011)
Schulz, Marc Daniel; Dusuel, Sébastien; Vidal, Julien
2016-11-01
We discuss the emergence of bound states in the low-energy spectrum of the string-net Hamiltonian in the presence of a string tension. In the ladder geometry, we show that a single bound state arises either for a finite tension or in the zero-tension limit depending on the theory considered. In the latter case, we perturbatively compute the binding energy as a function of the total quantum dimension. We also address this issue in the honeycomb lattice where the number of bound states in the topological phase depends on the total quantum dimension. Finally, the internal structure of these bound states is analyzed in the zero-tension limit.
Schulz, M D; Vidal, J
2016-01-01
We discuss the emergence of bound states in the low-energy spectrum of the string-net Hamiltonian in the presence of a string tension. In the ladder geometry, we show that a single bound state arises either for a finite tension or in the zero-tension limit depending on the theory considered. In the latter case, we perturbatively compute the binding energy as a function of the total quantum dimension. We also address this issue in the honeycomb lattice where the number of bound states in the topological phase depends on the total quantum dimension. Finally, the internal structure of these bound states is analyzed in the zero-tension limit.
Some bounds for quantum copying
Rastegin, A E
2001-01-01
We derive lower bounds on the absolute error and the relative error of an abstract copying of two-state set. We do not specify a copying transformation and a dimension of state space. Only the unitarity of quantum mechanical transformations is used. Our approach is based on the notion of angle between two states. We first prove several useful statements, simply expressed in terms of angles. We then examine a lower bound on the absolute error, that was first considered by Hillery and Buzek. Our reasonings supplement and reinforce the results, obtained by them. So, we derive more strong bounds on the absolute error, and we also consider a tradeoff between size of error and corresponding probability distributions. After that we examine a lower bound on the relative error.
The persistence of the fluency-confidence association in problem solving.
Ackerman, Rakefet; Zalmanov, Hagar
2012-12-01
Confidence in answers is known to be sensitive to the fluency with which answers come to mind. One aspect of fluency is response latency. Latency is often a valid cue for accuracy, showing an inverse relationship with both accuracy rates and confidence. The present study examined the independent latency-confidence association in problem-solving tasks. The tasks were ecologically valid situations in which latency showed no validity, moderate validity, and high validity as a predictor of accuracy. In Experiment 1, misleading problems, which often elicit initial wrong solutions, were answered in open-ended and multiple-choice test formats. Under the open-ended test format, latency was absolutely not valid in predicting accuracy: Quickly and slowly provided solutions had a similar chance of being correct. Under the multiple-choice test format, latency predicted accuracy better. In Experiment 2, nonmisleading problems were used; here, latency was highly valid in predicting accuracy. A breakdown into correct and incorrect solutions allowed examination of the independent latency-confidence relationship when latency necessarily had no validity in predicting accuracy. In all conditions, regardless of latency's validity in predicting accuracy, confidence was persistently sensitive to latency: The participants were more confident in solutions provided quickly than in those that involved lengthy thinking. The study suggests that the reliability of the latency-confidence association in problem solving depends on the strength of the inverse relationship between latency and accuracy in the particular task.
Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository
Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.
1985-08-01
Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.
Properties of frequentist confidence levels derivatives
Martínez, Miriam Lucio; Dettori, Francesco
2016-01-01
In high energy physics, results from searches for new particles or rare processes are often reported using a modified frequentist approach, known as $\\rm{CL_s}$ method. In this paper, we study the properties of the derivatives of $\\rm{CL_s}$ and $\\rm{CL_{s+b}}$ as signal strength estimators if the confidence levels are interpreted as credible intervals. Our approach allows obtaining best fit points and $\\chi^2$ functions which can be used for phenomenology studies. In addition, this approach can be used to incorporate $\\rm{CL_s}$ results into Bayesian combinations.
Reliability Estimations of Control Systems Effected by Several Interference Sources
DengBei-xing; JiangMing-hu; LiXing
2003-01-01
In order to establish the sufficient and necessary condition that arbitrarily reliable systems can not be constructed with function elements under interference sources, it is very important to expand set of interference sources with the above property. In this paper, the models of two types of interference sources are raised respectively: interference source possessing real input vectors and constant reliable interferen cesource. We study the reliability of the systems effected by the interference sources, and the lower bound of the reliability is presented. The results show that it is impossible that arbitrarily reliable systems can not be constructed with the elements effected by above interference sources.
Reliability Generalization: "Lapsus Linguae"
Smith, Julie M.
2011-01-01
This study examines the proposed Reliability Generalization (RG) method for studying reliability. RG employs the application of meta-analytic techniques similar to those used in validity generalization studies to examine reliability coefficients. This study explains why RG does not provide a proper research method for the study of reliability,…
Steven Y Leigh
Full Text Available Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS nanoparticles have been engineered to generate unique fingerprint spectra and are potentially useful as bright contrast agents for molecular diagnostics. One promising strategy for biomedical diagnostics and imaging is to functionalize various particle types ("flavors", each emitting a unique spectral signature, to target a large multiplexed panel of molecular biomarkers. While SERS particles emit narrow spectral features that allow them to be easily separable under ideal conditions, the presence of competing noise sources and background signals such as detector noise, laser background, and autofluorescence confounds the reliability of demultiplexing algorithms. Results obtained during time-constrained in vivo imaging experiments may not be reproducible or accurate. Therefore, our goal is to provide experimentalists with a metric that may be monitored to enforce a desired bound on accuracy within a user-defined confidence level. We have defined a spectral reliability index (SRI, based on the output of a direct classical least-squares (DCLS demultiplexing routine, which provides a measure of the reliability of the computed nanoparticle concentrations and ratios. We present simulations and experiments to demonstrate the feasibility of this strategy, which can potentially be utilized for a range of instruments and biomedical applications involving multiplexed SERS nanoparticles.
Informationally complete quantum measurements & entanglement bounds
Flammia, Steven Thomas
2007-12-01
We define a class of measurements which we call pure-state informationally complete (PSI-complete) POVMs. These are measurements which can be used to reconstruct the pure state of a d-dimensional quantum system, but not necessarily a mixed state. We show that 2d measurement outcomes is necessary and sufficient for PSI-completeness. This demonstrates that the measurement complexity (as measured by the number of measurement outcomes) can achieve quadratic improvements when the system is confidently believed to be in a pure state. Next, we consider symmetric informationally complete POVMs (SIC-POVMs). SIC-POVMs are relevant for mixed state quantum tomography, but are not well understood. We prove a theorem related to the conjectured existence of SIC-POVMs showing the uniqueness (up to certain symmetries) of SIC-POVMs of a particular group-covariant type when the dimension of the Hilbert space is a prime number. In the second part of the dissertation, we consider a computational model that has access to only one pure qubit, along with n qubits in the totally mixed state. This model is thought to be capable of performing sonic computational tasks exponentially faster than any known classical algorithm. We show that circuits of this type generally lead to entangled states, but where the entanglement (as measured by the negativity) is bounded by a constant, independent of n, for all bipartite divisions. This suggests that the global nature of entanglement is a more important resource than the magnitude of the entanglement. We then consider multiply constrained bounds on entanglement measures based on convex constraint functions. We outline the general procedure, and then explicitly implement the program for the case of 4 x N quantum systems by bounding the entanglement of formation, the concurrence, and the tangle. Finally, we develop generalized bounds for quantum single-parameter estimation problems for which the coupling to the parameter is described by intrinsic multi
Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases
Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim
2011-01-01
Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations
Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu, L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald
2006-01-01
In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Ovenvrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter error are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.
Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald
2007-01-01
In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.
Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition
Colton, Larry Don
Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong
Zhou, Dao; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede
2016-01-01
DC capacitors in power electronic converters are a major constraint on improvement of the power density and the reliability. In this paper, according to the degradation data of tested capacitors, the lifetime model of the component is analyzed at various confidence levels. Then, the mission profile...... based lifetime expectancy of the individual capacitor and the capacitor bank is estimated in a fuel cell backup power converter operating in both standby mode and operation mode. The lifetime prediction of the capacitor banks at different confidence levels is also obtained....
Zhou, Dao; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede
2016-01-01
DC capacitors in power electronic converters are a major constraint on improvement of the power density and the reliability. In this paper, according to the degradation data of tested capacitors, the lifetime model of the component is analyzed at various confidence levels. Then, the mission profile...... based lifetime expectancy of the individual capacitor and the capacitor bank is estimated in a fuel cell backup power converter operating in both standby mode and operation mode. The lifetime prediction of the capacitor banks at different confidence levels is also obtained....
Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring
Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.
2015-01-01
A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…
Mediated Sources of Public Confidence: Lazarsfeld and Merton Revisited.
Simonson, Peter
1999-01-01
Contributes to scholarship on mass media's role in generating public confidence. Discusses the current crisis of confidence, confidence as "faith-together," varied routes by which media confer status, and ways both journalistic expose and public debate can generate cynicism and undercut public confidence. Sketches three types of civil…
Mutual information challenges entropy bounds
Casini, H
2006-01-01
We consider some formulations of the entropy bounds at the semiclassical level. The entropy S(V) localized in a region V is divergent in quantum field theory (QFT). Instead of it we focus on the mutual information I(V,W)=S(V)+S(W)-S(V U W) between two different non-intersecting sets V and W. This is a low energy quantity, independent of the regularization scheme. In addition, the mutual information is bounded above by twice the entropy corresponding to the sets involved. Calculations of I(V,W) in QFT show that the entropy in empty space cannot be renormalized to zero, and must be actually very large. We find that this entropy due to the vacuum fluctuations violates the FMW bound in Minkowski space. The mutual information also gives a precise, cutoff independent meaning to the statement that the number of degrees of freedom increases with the volume in QFT. If the holographic bound holds, this points to the essential non locality of the physical cutoff. Violations of the Bousso bound would require conformal th...
Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions
Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.
2016-01-01
Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....
Confidence intervals for annual wind power production******
Bensoussan Alain
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Wind power is an intermittent resource due to wind speed intermittency. However wind speed can be described as a stochastic process with short memory. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for the annual or pluri-annual wind power production and then get quantiles of the wind power production for one, ten or twenty years future periods. On the one hand, the interquantile spread offers a measurement of the intrinsic uncertainties of wind power production. On the other hand, different quantiles with different periods of time are used by financial institutions to quantify the financial risk of the wind turbine. Our method is then applied to real datasets corresponding to a French wind turbine. Since confidence intervals can be enhanced by taking into account seasonality, we present some tools for change point analysis on wind series.
Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.
Knudson, Duane
2017-11-01
Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.
Setting confidence intervals in coincidence search analysis
Baggio, L; Baggio, Lucio; Prodi, Giovanni A.
2003-01-01
The main technique that has been used to estimate the rate of gravitational wave (gw) bursts is to search for coincidence among times of arrival of candidate events in different detectors. Coincidences are modeled as a (possibly non-stationary) random time series background with gw events embedded in it, at random times but constant average rate. It is critical to test whether the statistics of the coincidence counts is Poisson, because the counts in a single detector often are not. At some point a number of parameters are tuned to increase the chance of detection by reducing the expected background: source direction, epoch vetoes based on sensitivity, goodness-of-fit thresholds, etc. Therefore, the significance of the confidence intervals itself has to be renormalized. This review is an insight of the state-of-the-art methods employed in the recent search performed by the International Gravitational Event Collaboration for the worldwide network of resonant bar detectors.
Confidence sets for optimal factor levels of a response surface.
Wan, Fang; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Han, Yang
2016-12-01
Construction of confidence sets for the optimal factor levels is an important topic in response surfaces methodology. In Wan et al. (2015), an exact (1-α) confidence set has been provided for a maximum or minimum point (i.e., an optimal factor level) of a univariate polynomial function in a given interval. In this article, the method has been extended to construct an exact (1-α) confidence set for the optimal factor levels of response surfaces. The construction method is readily applied to many parametric and semiparametric regression models involving a quadratic function. A conservative confidence set has been provided as an intermediate step in the construction of the exact confidence set. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the confidence sets. The comparison between confidence sets indicates that our exact confidence set is better than the only other confidence set available in the statistical literature that guarantees the (1-α) confidence level. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
Reliability in individual monitoring service.
Mod Ali, N
2011-03-01
As a laboratory certified to ISO 9001:2008 and accredited to ISO/IEC 17025, the Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL)-Nuclear Malaysia has incorporated an overall comprehensive system for technical and quality management in promoting a reliable individual monitoring service (IMS). Faster identification and resolution of issues regarding dosemeter preparation and issuing of reports, personnel enhancement, improved customer satisfaction and overall efficiency of laboratory activities are all results of the implementation of an effective quality system. Review of these measures and responses to observed trends provide continuous improvement of the system. By having these mechanisms, reliability of the IMS can be assured in the promotion of safe behaviour at all levels of the workforce utilising ionising radiation facilities. Upgradation of in the reporting program through a web-based e-SSDL marks a major improvement in Nuclear Malaysia's IMS reliability on the whole. The system is a vital step in providing a user friendly and effective occupational exposure evaluation program in the country. It provides a higher level of confidence in the results generated for occupational dose monitoring of the IMS, thus, enhances the status of the radiation protection framework of the country.
The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.
Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack
2010-03-01
20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for
Assuring reliability program effectiveness.
Ball, L. W.
1973-01-01
An attempt is made to provide simple identification and description of techniques that have proved to be most useful either in developing a new product or in improving reliability of an established product. The first reliability task is obtaining and organizing parts failure rate data. Other tasks are parts screening, tabulation of general failure rates, preventive maintenance, prediction of new product reliability, and statistical demonstration of achieved reliability. Five principal tasks for improving reliability involve the physics of failure research, derating of internal stresses, control of external stresses, functional redundancy, and failure effects control. A final task is the training and motivation of reliability specialist engineers.
The Accelerator Reliability Forum
Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R
2014-01-01
A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.
Multidimensional confidence regions for pareto, exponential, and normal distributions
Lennartz, Jens
2017-01-01
The two classical approaches in estimation theory are point estimation and confidence interval estimation. A confidence interval contains the unknown parameter of interest of a parametric family of distributions with a probability greater than or equal to a certain value, called confidence coefficient or confidence level. If we deal with multiparametric families of distributions, we are interested in simultaneously estimating the parameter vector by determining a multidimensional confidence r...
Eta nuclear bound states revisited
Friedman, E; Mareš, J
2013-01-01
The strong energy dependence of the s-wave eta-N scattering amplitude at and below threshold, as evident in coupled-channels K-matrix fits and chiral models that incorporate the S11 N*(1535) resonance, is included self consistently in eta-nuclear bound state calculations. This approach, applied recently in calculations of kaonic atoms and Kbar-nuclear bound states, is found to impose stronger constraints than ever on the onset of eta-nuclear binding, with a minimum value of Re a_{eta N} approximately 0.9 fm required to accommodate an eta-4He bound state. Binding energies and widths of eta-nuclear states are calculated within several underlying eta-N models for nuclei across the periodic table, including eta-25Mg for which some evidence was proposed in a recent COSY experiment.
Improved Range Searching Lower Bounds
Larsen, Kasper Green; Nguyen, Huy L.
2012-01-01
Table of Contents -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this paper we present a number of improved lower bounds for range searching in the pointer machine and the group model. In the pointer machine, we prove lower bounds for the approximate simplex...... range reporting problem. In approximate simplex range reporting, points that lie within a distance of ε ⋅ Diam(s) from the border of a query simplex s, are free to be included or excluded from the output, where ε ≥ 0 is an input parameter to the range searching problem. We prove our lower bounds...... by constructing a hard input set and query set, and then invoking Chazelle and Rosenberg's [CGTA'96] general theorem on the complexity of navigation in the pointer machine. For the group model, we show that input sets and query sets that are hard for range reporting in the pointer machine (i.e. by Chazelle...
Experimental activation of bound entanglement.
Kaneda, Fumihiro; Shimizu, Ryosuke; Ishizaka, Satoshi; Mitsumori, Yasuyoshi; Kosaka, Hideo; Edamatsu, Keiichi
2012-07-27
Entanglement is one of the essential resources in quantum information and communication technology (QICT). The entanglement thus far explored and applied to QICT has been pure and distillable entanglement. Yet, there is another type of entanglement, called "bound entanglement," which is not distillable by local operations and classical communication. We demonstrate the experimental "activation" of the bound entanglement held in the four-qubit Smolin state, unleashing its immanent entanglement in distillable form, with the help of auxiliary two-qubit entanglement and local operations and classical communication. We anticipate that it opens the way to a new class of QICT applications that utilize more general classes of entanglement than ever, including bound entanglement.
Enlightenment on Computer Network Reliability From Transportation Network Reliability
Hu Wenjun; Zhou Xizhao
2011-01-01
Referring to transportation network reliability problem, five new computer network reliability definitions are proposed and discussed. They are computer network connectivity reliability, computer network time reliability, computer network capacity reliability, computer network behavior reliability and computer network potential reliability. Finally strategies are suggested to enhance network reliability.
Modeling agreement on bounded scales.
Vanbelle, Sophie; Lesaffre, Emmanuel
2017-01-01
Agreement is an important concept in medical and behavioral sciences, in particular in clinical decision making where disagreements possibly imply a different patient management. The concordance correlation coefficient is an appropriate measure to quantify agreement between two scorers on a quantitative scale. However, this measure is based on the first two moments, which could poorly summarize the shape of the score distribution on bounded scales. Bounded outcome scores are common in medical and behavioral sciences. Typical examples are scores obtained on visual analog scales and scores derived as the number of positive items on a questionnaire. These kinds of scores often show a non-standard distribution, like a J- or U-shape, questioning the usefulness of the concordance correlation coefficient as agreement measure. The logit-normal distribution has shown to be successful in modeling bounded outcome scores of two types: (1) when the bounded score is a coarsened version of a latent score with a logit-normal distribution on the [0,1] interval and (2) when the bounded score is a proportion with the true probability having a logit-normal distribution. In the present work, a model-based approach, based on a bivariate generalization of the logit-normal distribution, is developed in a Bayesian framework to assess the agreement on bounded scales. This method permits to directly study the impact of predictors on the concordance correlation coefficient and can be simply implemented in standard Bayesian softwares, like JAGS and WinBUGS. The performances of the new method are compared to the classical approach using simulations. Finally, the methodology is used in two different medical domains: cardiology and rheumatology.
Graphs and matroids weighted in a bounded incline algebra.
Lu, Ling-Xia; Zhang, Bei
2014-01-01
Firstly, for a graph weighted in a bounded incline algebra (or called a dioid), a longest path problem (LPP, for short) is presented, which can be considered the uniform approach to the famous shortest path problem, the widest path problem, and the most reliable path problem. The solutions for LPP and related algorithms are given. Secondly, for a matroid weighted in a linear matroid, the maximum independent set problem is studied.
Lower Bounds for Sparse Recovery
Ba, Khanh Do; Price, Eric; Woodruff, David P
2011-01-01
We consider the following k-sparse recovery problem: design an m x n matrix A, such that for any signal x, given Ax we can efficiently recover x' satisfying ||x-x'||_1 <= C min_{k-sparse} x"} ||x-x"||_1. It is known that there exist matrices A with this property that have only O(k log (n/k)) rows. In this paper we show that this bound is tight. Our bound holds even for the more general /randomized/ version of the problem, where A is a random variable and the recovery algorithm is required to work for any fixed x with constant probability (over A).
Variables Bounding Based Retiming Algorithm
宫宗伟; 林争辉; 陈后鹏
2002-01-01
Retiming is a technique for optimizing sequential circuits. In this paper, wediscuss this problem and propose an improved retiming algorithm based on variables bounding.Through the computation of the lower and upper bounds on variables, the algorithm can signi-ficantly reduce the number of constraints and speed up the execution of retiming. Furthermore,the elements of matrixes D and W are computed in a demand-driven way, which can reducethe capacity of memory. It is shown through the experimental results on ISCAS89 benchmarksthat our algorithm is very effective for large-scale sequential circuits.
Bounds for Completely Decomposable Jacobians
Duursma, Iwan
2010-01-01
A curve over the field of two elements with completely decomposable Jacobian is shown to have at most six rational points and genus at most 26. The bounds are sharp. The previous upper bound for the genus was 145. We also show that a curve over the field of $q$ elements with more than $q^{m/2}+1$ rational points has at least one Frobenius angle in the open interval $(\\pi/m,3\\pi/m)$. The proofs make use of the explicit formula method.
Human Reliability Program Overview
Bodin, Michael
2012-09-25
This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.
Power electronics reliability analysis.
Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley
2009-12-01
This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.
DISTRIBUTED MONITORING SYSTEM RELIABILITY ESTIMATION WITH CONSIDERATION OF STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTY
Yi Pengxing; Yang Shuzi; Du Runsheng; Wu Bo; Liu Shiyuan
2005-01-01
Taking into account the whole system structure and the component reliability estimation uncertainty, a system reliability estimation method based on probability and statistical theory for distributed monitoring systems is presented. The variance and confidence intervals of the system reliability estimation are obtained by expressing system reliability as a linear sum of products of higher order moments of component reliability estimates when the number of component or system survivals obeys binomial distribution. The eigenfunction of binomial distribution is used to determine the moments of component reliability estimates, and a symbolic matrix which can facilitate the search of explicit system reliability estimates is proposed. Furthermore, a case of application is used to illustrate the procedure, and with the help of this example, various issues such as the applicability of this estimation model, and measures to improve system reliability of monitoring systems are discussed.
Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth A.
2016-01-01
This presentation focuses on reliability and trust for the users portion of the FPGA design flow. It is assumed that the manufacturer prior to hand-off to the user tests FPGA internal components. The objective is to present the challenges of creating reliable and trusted designs. The following will be addressed: What makes a design vulnerable to functional flaws (reliability) or attackers (trust)? What are the challenges for verifying a reliable design versus a trusted design?
Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory
Odinot, Geralda
2008-01-01
Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of
Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory
Odinot, Geralda
2008-01-01
Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of emp
Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.
2012-01-01
The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting result
Viking Lander reliability program
Pilny, M. J.
1978-01-01
The Viking Lander reliability program is reviewed with attention given to the development of the reliability program requirements, reliability program management, documents evaluation, failure modes evaluation, production variation control, failure reporting and correction, and the parts program. Lander hardware failures which have occurred during the mission are listed.
Market access through bound tariffs
Sala, Davide; Schröder, Philipp J.H.; Yalcin, Erdal
2010-01-01
WTO negotiations deal predominantly with bound - besides applied - tariff rates. But, how can reductions in tariffs ceilings, i.e. tariff rates that no exporter may ever actually be confronted with, generate market access? The answer to this question relates to the effects of tariff bindings on t...
Market Access through Bound Tariffs
Sala, Davide; Schröder, Philipp J.H.; Yalcin, Erdal
WTO negotiations deal predominantly with bound - besides applied - tariff rates. But, how can reductions in tariffs ceilings, i.e. tariff rates that no exporter may ever actually be confronted with, generate market access? The answer to this question relates to the effects of tariff bindings on t...
Bounded Densities and Their Derivatives
Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, V.
2009-01-01
This paper describes how one can compute interval-valued statistical measures given limited information about the underlying distribution. The particular focus is on a bounded derivative of a probability density function and its combination with other available statistical evidence for computing ...
Wronskian Method for Bound States
Fernandez, Francisco M.
2011-01-01
We propose a simple and straightforward method based on Wronskians for the calculation of bound-state energies and wavefunctions of one-dimensional quantum-mechanical problems. We explicitly discuss the asymptotic behaviour of the wavefunction and show that the allowed energies make the divergent part vanish. As illustrative examples we consider…
Variational Bounds for Creeping Composites
Procházka, Petr
2010-05-01
In the paper time dependent variational bounds are derived based on Extended Hashin-Shtrikman variational principles. Direct calculation leads to explicit formulas to be presented in the text. For various mechanical properties easy coding in Excel, say, can be used and verification of accuracy for numerical procedures is available using the derived formulas.
Pieter Paul Rubens, "Prometheus Bound."
Shoemaker, Marla K.
1986-01-01
Provides a full-color reproduction of Pieter Paul Rubens' painting, "Prometheus Bound," and a lesson plan for using it with students in grades 10 through 12. The goal of the lesson is to introduce students to the techniques of design and execution used by Rubens. (JDH)
Carvalho, Catarina; MarkoviÄ, Petar; Maróti, Miklós
2007-01-01
We prove that the constraint languages invariant under a short sequence of J\\'onsson terms (containing at most three non-trivial ternary terms) are tractable by showing that they have bounded width. This improves the previous result by Kiss and Valeriote and presents some evidence that the Larose-Zadori conjecture holds in the congruence-distributive case.
Pieter Paul Rubens, "Prometheus Bound."
Shoemaker, Marla K.
1986-01-01
Provides a full-color reproduction of Pieter Paul Rubens' painting, "Prometheus Bound," and a lesson plan for using it with students in grades 10 through 12. The goal of the lesson is to introduce students to the techniques of design and execution used by Rubens. (JDH)
High-Confidence Quantum Gate Tomography
Johnson, Blake; da Silva, Marcus; Ryan, Colm; Kimmel, Shelby; Donovan, Brian; Ohki, Thomas
2014-03-01
Debugging and verification of high-fidelity quantum gates requires the development of new tools and protocols to unwrap the performance of the gate from the rest of the sequence. Randomized benchmarking tomography[2] allows one to extract full information of the unital portion of the gate with high confidence. We report experimental confirmation of the technique's applicability to quantum gate tomography. We show that the method is robust to common experimental imperfections such as imperfect single-shot readout and state preparation. We also demonstrate the ability to characterize non-Clifford gates. To assist in the experimental implementation we introduce two techniques. ``Atomic Cliffords'' use phase ramping and frame tracking to allow single-pulse implementation of the full group of single-qubit Clifford gates. Domain specific pulse sequencers allow rapid implementation of the many thousands of sequences needed. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), through the Army Research Office contract no. W911NF-10-1-0324.
Exhibitors: Full of Confidence Adequate Preparation
无
2009-01-01
From March 26th,three most important trade fairs for Chinese textile industry opened successively inBeijing.Several exhibitors showed their confidence and preparation to TA Weekly. Bosideng:CHIC is an everlasting marketing chance"We’ll definitely participate in CHIC 2009,with even moreinvestment."Gao Dekang,the President of Bosideng Co.,Ltd said,"Bosideng is going to make full use of this trade fair for furtherdevelopment."According to the organizer of CHIC 2009,Bosidengreserved 1000 square meters for its show."CHIC witnessed the blooming development of Chinese clothingindustry for the last ten years.CHIC has made a progress to catch upwith the world trend as well as in the social influence.It has becomethe pioneer of fashion and is regarded as the releasing center,innovation center and brand center."As a long-term participant,Bosideng has the right to say these words.It is in this fair,Bosideng
A Functional Calculus for Quotient Bounded Operators
Sorin Mirel Stoian
2006-12-01
Full Text Available If (X, P is a sequentially locally convex space, then a quotient bounded operator T beloging to QP is regular (in the sense of Waelbroeck if and only if it is a bounded element (in the sense of Allan of algebra QP. The classic functional calculus for bounded operators on Banach space is generalized for bounded elements of algebra QP.
Revisiting Gruss's inequality: covariance bounds,QDE but not QD copulas, and central moments
Egozcue, Martin; Wong, Wing-Keung; Zitikis, Ricardas
2010-01-01
Since the pioneering work of Gerhard Gruss dating back to 1935, Gruss's inequality and, more generally, Gruss-type bounds for covariances have fascinated researchers and found numerous applications in areas such as economics, insurance, reliability, and, more generally, decision making under uncertainly. Gruss-type bounds for covariances have been established mainly under most general dependence structures, meaning no restrictions on the dependence structure between the two underlying random variables. Recent work in the area has revealed a potential for improving Gruss-type bounds, including the original Gruss's bound, assuming dependence structures such as quadrant dependence (QD). In this paper we demonstrate that the relatively little explored notion of `quadrant dependence in expectation' (QDE) is ideally suited in the context of bounding covariances, especially those that appear in the aforementioned areas of application. We explore this research avenue in detail, establish general Gruss-type bounds, an...
Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005
Richard D. Morey
2008-09-01
Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.
Bayesian estimation of keyword confidence in Chinese continuous speech recognition
HAO Jie; LI Xing
2003-01-01
In a syllable-based speaker-independent Chinese continuous speech recognition system based on classical Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a Bayesian approach of keyword confidence estimation is studied, which utilizes both acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) score. The Maximum a posteriori (MAP) confidence measure is proposed, and the forward-backward algorithm calculating the MAP confidence scores is deduced. The performance of the MAP confidence measure is evaluated in keyword spotting application and the experiment results show that the MAP confidence scores provide high discriminability for keyword candidates. Furthermore, the MAP confidence measure can be applied to various speech recognition applications.
Max-confidence boosting with uncertainty for visual tracking.
Guo, Wen; Cao, Liangliang; Han, Tony X; Yan, Shuicheng; Xu, Changsheng
2015-05-01
The challenges in visual tracking call for a method which can reliably recognize the subject of interests in an environment, where the appearance of both the background and the foreground change with time. Many existing studies model this problem as tracking by classification with online updating of the classification models, however, most of them overlook the ambiguity in visual modeling and do not consider the prior information in the tracking process. In this paper, we present a novel visual tracking method called max-confidence boosting (MCB), which explores a new way of online updating ambiguous visual phenomenon. The MCB framework models uncertainty in prior knowledge utilizing the indeterministic labels, which are used in updating models from previous frames and the new frame. Our proposed MCB tracker allows ambiguity in the tracking process and can effectively alleviate the drift problem. Many experimental results in challenging video sequences verify the success of our method, and our MCB tracker outperforms a number of the state-of-the-art tracking by classification methods.
Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J
2015-01-01
This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.
Business confidence still high in Zimbabwe.
Amanor-wilks, D
1995-12-01
Business confidence has not been affected in Zimbabwe despite the AIDS epidemic in that country. An Australian mining company has recruited people to work at its platinum mine in Zimbabwe and also instituted an AIDS awareness program. The National Chamber of Commerce disclosed that semiskilled and unskilled workers who are the "easiest to replace" have been most affected by the epidemic. The impact of AIDS has not been as bad as had been predicted several years ago. By the end of the 1990s, however, there might be a skills shortage. The first AIDS case was detected in 1985 in Zimbabwe. By the end of 1995 a cumulative total of 38,500 cases had been reported, but the National AIDS Control Program believes that the true figure is over 100,000. The estimated number of HIV-infected people is about 1 million. The most economically productive age group (30-50) has the highest rates of infection. Transport is affected most, followed by mining and commercial farming. Infection rates among miners are estimated to be 20-30% and the rates are the highest at the mines on the major transport routes. The mining industry has not had any problems in recruiting labor, but, increasingly, deaths are AIDS-related. The growing sex industry at the mines has accelerated the spread of HIV. In addition, small mines do not have AIDS awareness programs in place. The National Employment Council runs a project for the transport industry, which seeks to intensify AIDS campaigns at truck stops. This also entails talks to drivers about AIDS; courses for police, nurses, and sex workers; and the distribution of condoms. In commercial farming, two-thirds of workers are unskilled casual laborers who live in squalid conditions that foster the spread of AIDS. At these farms there is also a growing number of orphans, whose number is estimated to rise to 60,000 by the late 1990s.
Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms
Ndhlovu, T
2009-11-01
Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...
The role of confidence in world-class sport performance.
Hays, Kate; Thomas, Owen; Maynard, Ian; Bawden, Mark
2009-09-01
In this study, we examined the role of confidence in relation to the cognitive, affective, and behavioural responses it elicits, and identified the factors responsible for debilitating confidence within the organizational subculture of world-class sport. Using Vealey's (2001) integrative model of sport confidence as a broad conceptual base, 14 athletes (7 males, 7 females) were interviewed in response to the research aims. Analysis indicated that high sport confidence facilitated performance through its positive effect on athletes' thoughts, feelings, and behaviours. However, the athletes participating in this study were susceptible to factors that served to debilitate their confidence. These factors appeared to be associated with the sources from which they derived their confidence and influenced to some extent by gender. Thus, the focus of interventions designed to enhance sport confidence must reflect the individual needs of the athlete, and might involve identifying an athlete's sources and types of confidence, and ensuring that these are intact during competition preparation phases.
Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures.
Balch, Michael Scott
2012-10-01
This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference.
Assessing Residents' Confidence in the Context of Pharmacotherapy Competence.
Rakofsky, Jeffrey J; Garlow, Steven J; Haroon, Ebrahim; Hermida, Adriana P; Young, John Q; Dunlop, Boadie W
2017-06-01
We aimed to determine whether residents' confidence initiating medications increased with the number of times they prescribed individual medications and to quantify the relationship between prescription frequency and gains in confidence. From July 2011 to June 2014, PGY-3 residents completed a survey of confidence levels at their psychopharmacology clinic orientation and then again 12 months later. The Emory Healthcare electronic medical record was used to identify all medications prescribed by each resident during their 12-month rotation and the frequency of these prescriptions. Confidence in initiating treatment with all medicines/medication classes increased over the 12-month period. For three of the medication classes for which residents indicated they were least confident at orientation, the number of prescriptions written during the year was significantly associated with an increase in confidence. Measuring resident confidence is a relevant and achievable outcome and provides data for educators regarding the amount of experience needed to increase confidence.
Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures
Balch, Michael Scott
2012-01-01
This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904
Bounds on very low reheating scenarios after Planck
de Salas, P F; Mangano, G; Miele, G; Pastor, S; Pisanti, O
2015-01-01
We consider the case of very low reheating scenarios ($T_{\\rm RH}\\sim\\mathcal{O}({\\rm MeV})$) with a better calculation of the production of the relic neutrino background (with three-flavor oscillations). At 95% confidence level, a lower bound on the reheating temperature $T_{\\rm RH}>4.1$ MeV is obtained from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis, while $T_{\\rm RH}>4.3$ MeV from Planck data for very light ($\\sum m_i = 0.06$ eV) neutrinos. If neutrino masses are allowed to vary, Planck data yield $T_{\\rm RH}>4.7$ MeV, the most stringent bound on the reheating temperature to date. Neutrino masses as large as 1 eV are possible for very low reheating temperatures.
Reliability estimation in a multilevel confirmatory factor analysis framework.
Geldhof, G John; Preacher, Kristopher J; Zyphur, Michael J
2014-03-01
Scales with varying degrees of measurement reliability are often used in the context of multistage sampling, where variance exists at multiple levels of analysis (e.g., individual and group). Because methodological guidance on assessing and reporting reliability at multiple levels of analysis is currently lacking, we discuss the importance of examining level-specific reliability. We present a simulation study and an applied example showing different methods for estimating multilevel reliability using multilevel confirmatory factor analysis and provide supporting Mplus program code. We conclude that (a) single-level estimates will not reflect a scale's actual reliability unless reliability is identical at each level of analysis, (b) 2-level alpha and composite reliability (omega) perform relatively well in most settings, (c) estimates of maximal reliability (H) were more biased when estimated using multilevel data than either alpha or omega, and (d) small cluster size can lead to overestimates of reliability at the between level of analysis. We also show that Monte Carlo confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals closely reflect the sampling distribution of reliability estimates under most conditions. We discuss the estimation of credible intervals using Mplus and provide R code for computing Monte Carlo confidence intervals.
Wenmackers, Sylvia; Douven, Igor
2014-01-01
We present a model for studying communities of epistemically interacting agents who update their belief states by averaging (in a specified way) the belief states of other agents in the community. The agents in our model have a rich belief state, involving multiple independent issues which are interrelated in such a way that they form a theory of the world. Our main goal is to calculate the probability for an agent to end up in an inconsistent belief state due to updating (in the given way). To that end, an analytical expression is given and evaluated numerically, both exactly and using statistical sampling. It is shown that, under the assumptions of our model, an agent always has a probability of less than 2% of ending up in an inconsistent belief state. Moreover, this probability can be made arbitrarily small by increasing the number of independent issues the agents have to judge or by increasing the group size. A real-world situation to which this model applies is a group of experts participating in a Delp...
Generalized confidence interval plots using commands or dialogs
Roger Newson
2005-01-01
Confidence intervals may be presented as publication-ready tables or as presentation-ready plots. -eclplot- produces plots of estimates and confidence intervals. It inputs a dataset (or resultsset) with one observation per parameter and variables containing estimates, lower and upper confidence limits, and a fourth variable, against which the confidence intervals are plotted. This resultsset can be used for producing both plots and tables, and may be generated using a spreadsheet or using -st...
Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments
2015-03-01
Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments Peter H. Feiler Charles B. Weinstock John B. Goodenough...Design 8 2.3 Architecture Fault Modeling and Analysis with EMV2 8 2.4 Confidence Map Concepts and Notation 11 Overview of the Stepper-Motor System...Comparison of the SMS Designs 43 Establishing Confidence in the SMS 45 6.1 Confidence Maps for SMS 45 CMU/SEI-2015-TR-006 | SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
How to Strengthen Child Learners’Self-confidence
李文敬
2013-01-01
Self-confidence is closely related to L2 learning. In order to make their learners enjoy English learning, English teach-ers need to strengthen the learners’English learning confidence. This article is to find out English teachers’role to strengthening learners’self-confidence in ELL by means of class observation. The writer concludes improving speaking ability; giving praise and offering gentle error correcting can help to strengthen the learners’confidence.
Another Look at Confidence Intervals: Proposal for a More Relevant and Transparent Approach
Biller, Steven D
2014-01-01
The behaviors of various confidence/credible interval constructions are explored, particularly in the region of low statistics where methods diverge most. We highlight a number of challenges, such as the treatment of nuisance parameters, and common misconceptions associated with such constructions. An informal survey of the literature suggests that confidence intervals are not always defined in relevant ways and are too often misinterpreted and/or misapplied. This can lead to seemingly paradoxical behaviours and flawed comparisons regarding the relevance of experimental results. We therefore conclude that there is a need for a more pragmatic strategy which recognizes that, while it is critical to objectively convey the information content of the data, there is also a strong desire to derive bounds on models and a natural instinct to interpret things this way. Accordingly, we attempt to put aside philosophical biases in favor of a practical view to propose a more transparent and self-consistent approach that b...
Physics with loosely bound nuclei
Chhanda Samanta
2001-08-01
The essential aspect of contemporary physics is to understand properties of nucleonic matter that constitutes the world around us. Over the years research in nuclear physics has provided strong guidance in understanding the basic principles of nuclear interactions. But, the scenario of nuclear physics changed drastically as the new generation of accelerators started providing more and more rare isotopes, which are away from the line of stability. These weakly bound nuclei are found to exhibit new forms of nuclear matter and unprecedented exotic behaviour. The low breakup thresholds of these rare nuclei are posing new challenges to both theory and experiments. Fortunately, nature has provided a few loosely bound stable nuclei that have been studied thoroughly for decades. Attempts are being made to ﬁnd a consistent picture for the unstable nuclei starting from their stable counterparts. Some signiﬁcant differences in the structure and reaction mechanisms are found.
Space-bounded communication complexity
Brody, Joshua Eric; Chen, Shiteng; Papakonstantinou, Periklis A.
2013-01-01
In the past thirty years, Communication Complexity has emerged as a foundational tool to proving lower bounds in many areas of computer science. Its power comes from its generality, but this generality comes at a price---no superlinear communication lower bound is possible, since a player may...... communicate his entire input. However, what if the players are limited in their ability to recall parts of their interaction? We introduce memory models for 2-party communication complexity. Our general model is as follows: two computationally unrestricted players, Alice and Bob, each have s(n) bits of memory....... When a player receives a bit of communication, he "compresses" his state. This compression may be an arbitrary function of his current memory contents, his input, and the bit of communication just received; the only restriction is that the compression must return at most s(n) bits. We obtain memory...
Bounding the Probability of Error for High Precision Recognition
Kae, Andrew; Learned-Miller, Erik
2009-01-01
We consider models for which it is important, early in processing, to estimate some variables with high precision, but perhaps at relatively low rates of recall. If some variables can be identified with near certainty, then they can be conditioned upon, allowing further inference to be done efficiently. Specifically, we consider optical character recognition (OCR) systems that can be bootstrapped by identifying a subset of correctly translated document words with very high precision. This "clean set" is subsequently used as document-specific training data. While many current OCR systems produce measures of confidence for the identity of each letter or word, thresholding these confidence values, even at very high values, still produces some errors. We introduce a novel technique for identifying a set of correct words with very high precision. Rather than estimating posterior probabilities, we bound the probability that any given word is incorrect under very general assumptions, using an approximate worst case ...
78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement
2013-09-13
...; ] NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 RIN 3150-AJ20 Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental... Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement,'' that forms the regulatory basis for the proposed... Confidence rule). The NRC staff plans to hold 12 public meetings during the public comment period to present...
21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.
2010-04-01
... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence building...
7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no information...
Coverage Accuracy of Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression
Song-xi Chen; Yong-song Qin
2003-01-01
Point-wise confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function with random design points are considered. The confidence intervals are those based on the traditional normal approximation and the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing the Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.
Developing Self-confidence%培养自信心
Robert Kokoska
2006-01-01
@@ Ideally,self-confidence is something you develop early and maintain throughout life. For many of us,though, that just isn't the case-either the process of developing self-confidence is stymied early on,or we lose confidence because of life events.
Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students
Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul
2012-01-01
Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…
Predicting Postfeedback Performance from Students' Confidence in Their Responses.
Bender, Timothy A.
The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…
Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics
Leppavirta, Johanna
2012-01-01
The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…
Learning about confidence intervals with software R
Gariela Gonçalves
2013-08-01
Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about
Lower Bounds on Paraclique Density.
Hagan, Ronald D; Langston, Michael A; Wang, Kai
2016-05-11
The scientific literature teems with clique-centric clustering strategies. In this paper we analyze one such method, the paraclique algorithm. Paraclique has found practical utility in a variety of application domains, and has been successfully employed to reduce the effects of noise. Nevertheless, its formal analysis and worst-case guarantees have remained elusive. We address this issue by deriving a series of lower bounds on paraclique densities.
Wronskian method for bound states
Fernandez, Francisco M, E-mail: fernande@quimica.unlp.edu.ar [INIFTA (UNLP, CONICET), Division Quimica Teorica, Boulevard 113 S/N, Sucursal 4, Casilla de Correo 16, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)
2011-05-15
We propose a simple and straightforward method based on Wronskians for the calculation of bound-state energies and wavefunctions of one-dimensional quantum-mechanical problems. We explicitly discuss the asymptotic behaviour of the wavefunction and show that the allowed energies make the divergent part vanish. As illustrative examples we consider an exactly solvable model, the Gaussian potential well, and a two-well potential proposed earlier for the interpretation of the infrared spectrum of ammonia.
Bound Modes in Dielectric Microcavities
Visser, P M; Lenstra, D
2002-01-01
We demonstrate how exactly bound cavity modes can be realized in dielectric structures other than 3d photonic crystals. For a microcavity consisting of crossed anisotropic layers, we derive the cavity resonance frequencies, and spontaneous emission rates. For a dielectric structure with dissipative loss and central layer with gain, the beta factor of direct spontaneous emission into a cavity mode and the laser threshold is calculated.
Entropy Bounds in Spherical Space
Brevik, I; Odintsov, S D; Brevik, Iver; Milton, Kimball A.; Odintsov, Sergei D.
2002-01-01
Exact calculations are given for the Casimir energy for various fields in $R\\times S^3$ geometry. The Green's function method naturally gives a result in a form convenient in the high-temperature limit, while the statistical mechanical approach gives a form appropriate for low temperatures. The equivalence of these two representations is demonstrated. Some discrepancies with previous work are noted. In no case, even for ${\\cal N}=4$ SUSY, is the ratio of entropy to energy found to be bounded.
2013-03-26
... Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Upward Bound and Upward Bound Math Science... Upward Bound Math Science Annual Performance Report. OMB Control Number: 1840-NEW. Type of Review: New... under the regular Upward Bound (UB) and Upward Bound Math and Science (UBMS) Programs. The Department is...
Kim, Hyo-Sil
2011-01-01
We study the motion-planning problem for a car-like robot whose turning radius is bounded from below by one and which is allowed to move in the forward direction only (Dubins car). For two robot configurations $\\sigma, \\sigma'$, let $\\ell(\\sigma, \\sigma')$ be the shortest bounded-curvature path from $\\sigma$ to $\\sigma'$. For $d \\geq 0$, let $\\ell(d)$ be the supremum of $\\ell(\\sigma, \\sigma')$, over all pairs $(\\sigma, \\sigma')$ that are at Euclidean distance $d$. We study the function $\\dub(d) = \\ell(d) - d$, which expresses the difference between the bounded-curvature path length and the Euclidean distance of its endpoints. We show that $\\dub(d)$ decreases monotonically from $\\dub(0) = 7\\pi/3$ to $\\dub(\\ds) = 2\\pi$, and is constant for $d \\geq \\ds$. Here $\\ds \\approx 1.5874$. We describe pairs of configurations that exhibit the worst-case of $\\dub(d)$ for every distance $d$.
Daly, Ruth A
2009-01-01
Beam powers and black hole masses of 48 extended radio sources are combined to obtain lower bounds on the spins and magnetic field strengths of supermassive black holes. This is done in the context of the models of Blandford & Znajek (1977) (the 'BZ' model) and Meier (1999); a parameterization for bounds in the context of other models is suggested. The bounds obtained for very powerful classical double radio sources in the BZ model are consistent with black hole spins of order unity for sources at high redshift. The black hole spins are largest for the highest redshift sources and decrease for sources at lower redshift; the sources studied have redshifts between zero and two. Lower power radio sources associated with central dominant galaxies may have black hole spins that are significantly less than one. Combining this analysis with other results suggests that the maximum values of black hole spin associated with powerful radio galaxies decline from values of order unity at a redshift of 2 to values of o...
Bounds on Generalized Huffman Codes
Baer, Michael B
2007-01-01
New lower and upper bounds are obtained for the compression of optimal binary prefix codes according to various nonlinear codeword length objectives. Like the coding bounds for Huffman coding - which concern the traditional linear code objective of minimizing average codeword length -- these are in terms of a form of entropy and the probability of the most probable input symbol. As in Huffman coding, some upper bounds can be found using sufficient conditions for the codeword corresponding to the most probable symbol being one bit long. Whereas having probability no less than 0.4 is a tight sufficient condition for this to be the case in Huffman coding, other penalties differ, some having a tighter condition, some a looser condition, and others having no such sufficient condition. The objectives explored here are ones for which optimal codes can be found using a generalized form of Huffman coding. These objectives include one related to queueing (an increasing exponential average), one related to single-shot c...
Ensemble of classifiers for confidence-rated classification of NDE signal
Banerjee, Portia; Safdarnejad, Seyed; Udpa, Lalita; Udpa, Satish
2016-02-01
Ensemble of classifiers in general, aims to improve classification accuracy by combining results from multiple weak hypotheses into a single strong classifier through weighted majority voting. Improved versions of ensemble of classifiers generate self-rated confidence scores which estimate the reliability of each of its prediction and boost the classifier using these confidence-rated predictions. However, such a confidence metric is based only on the rate of correct classification. In existing works, although ensemble of classifiers has been widely used in computational intelligence, the effect of all factors of unreliability on the confidence of classification is highly overlooked. With relevance to NDE, classification results are affected by inherent ambiguity of classifica-tion, non-discriminative features, inadequate training samples and noise due to measurement. In this paper, we extend the existing ensemble classification by maximizing confidence of every classification decision in addition to minimizing the classification error. Initial results of the approach on data from eddy current inspection show improvement in classification performance of defect and non-defect indications.
On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.
Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D
2015-05-01
In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by
Measurement System Reliability Assessment
Kłos Ryszard
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Decision-making in problem situations is based on up-to-date and reliable information. A great deal of information is subject to rapid changes, hence it may be outdated or manipulated and enforce erroneous decisions. It is crucial to have the possibility to assess the obtained information. In order to ensure its reliability it is best to obtain it with an own measurement process. In such a case, conducting assessment of measurement system reliability seems to be crucial. The article describes general approach to assessing reliability of measurement systems.
Dai, Honghua; Smirnov, Evgueni
2012-01-01
Reliable Knowledge Discovery focuses on theory, methods, and techniques for RKDD, a new sub-field of KDD. It studies the theory and methods to assure the reliability and trustworthiness of discovered knowledge and to maintain the stability and consistency of knowledge discovery processes. RKDD has a broad spectrum of applications, especially in critical domains like medicine, finance, and military. Reliable Knowledge Discovery also presents methods and techniques for designing robust knowledge-discovery processes. Approaches to assessing the reliability of the discovered knowledge are introduc
Kopáček Jaroslav
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This paper focuses on the importance of detection reliability, especially in complex fluid systems for demanding production technology. The initial criterion for assessing the reliability is the failure of object (element, which is seen as a random variable and their data (values can be processed using by the mathematical methods of theory probability and statistics. They are defined the basic indicators of reliability and their applications in calculations of serial, parallel and backed-up systems. For illustration, there are calculation examples of indicators of reliability for various elements of the system and for the selected pneumatic circuit.
Circuit design for reliability
Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson
2015-01-01
This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units. The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.
The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and monetary policy effectiveness: A survey
C.A. Uilersma
2003-01-01
textabstractThis paper surveys the literature on monetary policy at the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Certain crucial insights regarding expectations have been neglected in recent research in this field. Taking this into account, the interactions between demand, confidence and supply s
Faramarz Mojtahedzadeh
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Objective: Despite the current use of radiography for quantifying sagittal skeletal measurements, it is an unsuitable way for screening or epidemiologic purposes. Although not fully approved, anthropometric measurements have been suggested as a substitute, and considering displacement of soft tissues, could possibly lead to more consistent results. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability of anthropometric anteroposterior facial measurements under soft tissue compression using a special ruler.Material and Methods: Anthropometric measurements were done with a specifically designed sliding ruler twice on 36 adult patients with a 14 day lag between two measurements. The ruler measured the distance between the external acoustic meatus and the nasion (Na, subnasal (Sn point and the soft tissue pogonion (Pog. The soft tissue was displaced during measurements only to the extent that the underlying hard tissue resistance was felt subjectively by each assessor. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC was calculated for both inter- and intra- rater measurements using SPSS software.Results: All measurements had inter- and intrarater agreements above 0.9, with only a few parameters having lower bound confidence intervals below 0.9, but more than 0.8.Conclusion: Sagittal facial anthropometric measurements under soft tissue displacement using the specific ruler are valid and reliable and could possibly aid orthodontists in chairside craniofacial assessments.
On interpretations of bounded arithmetic and bounded set theory
Pettigrew, Richard
2008-01-01
In a recent paper, Kaye and Wong proved the following result, which they considered to belong to the folklore of mathematical logic. THEOREM: The first-order theories of Peano arithmetic and ZF with the axiom of infinity negated are mutually interpretable with interpretations that are inverse to each other. In this note, I describe a theory of sets that stands in the same relation to the bounded arithmetic IDelta0 + exp. Because of the weakness of this theory of sets, I cannot straightforwardly adapt Kaye and Wong's interpretation of the arithmetic in the set theory. Instead, I am forced to produce a different interpretation.
Upper Bounds on Numerical Approximation Errors
Raahauge, Peter
2004-01-01
This paper suggests a method for determining rigorous upper bounds on approximationerrors of numerical solutions to infinite horizon dynamic programming models.Bounds are provided for approximations of the value function and the policyfunction as well as the derivatives of the value function....... The bounds apply to moregeneral problems than existing bounding methods do. For instance, since strict concavityis not required, linear models and piecewise linear approximations can bedealt with. Despite the generality, the bounds perform well in comparison with existingmethods even when applied...... to approximations of a standard (strictly concave)growth model.KEYWORDS: Numerical approximation errors, Bellman contractions, Error bounds...
Feature Augmentation for Learning Confidence Measure in Stereo Matching.
Kim, Sunok; Min, Dongbo; Kim, Seungryong; Sohn, Kwanghoon
2017-09-08
Confidence estimation is essential for refining stereo matching results through a post-processing step. This problem has recently been studied using a learning-based approach, which demonstrates a substantial improvement on conventional simple non-learning based methods. However, the formulation of learning-based methods that individually estimates the confidence of each pixel disregards spatial coherency that might exist in the confidence map, thus providing a limited performance under challenging conditions. Our key observation is that the confidence features and resulting confidence maps are smoothly varying in the spatial domain, and highly correlated within the local regions of an image. We present a new approach that imposes spatial consistency on the confidence estimation. Specifically, a set of robust confidence features is extracted from each superpixel decomposed using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and then these features are concatenated with pixel-level confidence features. The features are then enhanced through adaptive filtering in the feature domain. In addition, the resulting confidence map, estimated using the confidence features with a random regression forest, is further improved through K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) based aggregation scheme on both pixel-and superpixel-level. To validate the proposed confidence estimation scheme, we employ cost modulation or ground control points (GCPs) based optimization in stereo matching. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on various benchmarks including challenging outdoor scenes.
MEASUREMENT: ACCOUNTING FOR RELIABILITY IN PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES.
Waterman, Brian; Sutter, Robert; Burroughs, Thomas; Dunagan, W Claiborne
2014-01-01
When evaluating physician performance measures, physician leaders are faced with the quandary of determining whether departures from expected physician performance measurements represent a true signal or random error. This uncertainty impedes the physician leader's ability and confidence to take appropriate performance improvement actions based on physician performance measurements. Incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurement is a valuable way of reducing the impact of random error in the measurements, such as those caused by small sample sizes. Consequently, the physician executive has more confidence that the results represent true performance and is positioned to make better physician performance improvement decisions. Applying reliability adjustment to physician-level performance data is relatively new. As others have noted previously, it's important to keep in mind that reliability adjustment adds significant complexity to the production, interpretation and utilization of results. Furthermore, the methods explored in this case study only scratch the surface of the range of available Bayesian methods that can be used for reliability adjustment; further study is needed to test and compare these methods in practice and to examine important extensions for handling specialty-specific concerns (e.g., average case volumes, which have been shown to be important in cardiac surgery outcomes). Moreover, it's important to note that the provider group average as a basis for shrinkage is one of several possible choices that could be employed in practice and deserves further exploration in future research. With these caveats, our results demonstrate that incorporating reliability adjustment into physician performance measurements is feasible and can notably reduce the incidence of "real" signals relative to what one would expect to see using more traditional approaches. A physician leader who is interested in catalyzing performance improvement
[Interrater reliability of the Braden scale].
Kottner, Jan; Tannen, Antje; Dassen, Theo
2008-04-01
Pressure ulcer risk assessment scales can assist nurses in determining the individual pressure ulcer risk. Although the Braden scale is widely used throughout Germany, its psychometric properties are yet unknown. The aim of the study was to determine the interrater reliability of the Braden scale and to compare the results with those of published data. A literature review was conducted. 20 studies measuring the interrater reliability of the Braden scale were evaluated. Only three of those studies investigated the interrater reliability of single items. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (0.80 to 1.00) was calculated in most studies for an evaluation of the Braden scale as a whole. However, the use of correlation coefficients is inappropriate for measuring the interrater reliability of the Braden scale. Measures of the intraclass correlation coefficient varied from 0.83 to 0.99. The investigation of the interrater reliability of the Braden scale's German version was conducted in a German nursing home in 2006. Nurses independently rated 18 and 32 residents twice. Nurses achieved the highest agreement when rating the items "friction and shear" and "activity" (overall proportion of agreement = 0.67 to 0.84, Cohen's Kappa = 0.57 to 0.73). The lowest agreement was achieved when the item "nutrition" (overall proportion of agreement = 0.47 to 0.51, Cohen's Kappa = 0.28 to 0.30) was rated. For 66% of the rated residents the difference in the obtained Braden scores was equal or less than one point. Intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.96) and 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.96). This indicates that the interrater reliability of the Braden scale was high in the examined setting.
Dagnan, Dave; Masson, John; Cavagin, Amy; Thwaites, Richard; Hatton, Chris
2015-01-01
Current policy in UK health services emphasizes that, where possible, people with intellectual disabilities should access the same services as people without intellectual disabilities. One of the barriers to this is the confidence of clinicians and therapists. In this paper, we report on the development of a scale to describe the confidence of therapists in working with people with intellectual disabilities (the Therapy Confidence Scale-Intellectual Disabilities [TCS-ID]). One-hundred and eighty-one therapists who provided talking therapies but who did not work primarily with people with intellectual disabilities completed the scale; 43 people completed the scale twice for test-retest reliability purposes. One-hundred and seven people also completed a scale of general therapy self-efficacy. The TCS-ID has a single factor structure accounting for 62% of the variance, Cronbach's alpha for the scale is 0.93 and test-retest reliability is 0.83. There are significant differences in confidence based upon participants experience in working with people with intellectual disabilities and their therapeutic orientation, and there is a significant association between the TCS-ID and the General Therapy Self-efficacy Scale. Sixty clinicians working in mainstream mental health services received training on adapting their therapeutic approaches to meet the needs of people with intellectual disabilities. The TCS-ID was used pre-training and post-training and demonstrated a significant increase in confidence for all group. We suggest that the scale has good psychometric properties and can be used to develop an understanding of the impact of training for mainstream therapist in working with people with intellectual disabilities. There is increasing emphasis on people with intellectual disabilities receiving services from mainstream mental health services. There is no research describing the experiences and outcomes of people with intellectual disabilities receiving mainstream talking
Perceived Sources of Team Confidence in Soccer and Basketball.
Fransen, Katrien; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vande Broek, Gert; Boen, Filip
2015-07-01
Although it is generally accepted that team confidence is beneficial for optimal team functioning and performance, little is known about the predictors of team confidence. The present study was aimed to shed light on the precursors of both high and low team confidence in two different sports. A distinction is made between sources of process-oriented team confidence (i.e., collective efficacy) and sources of outcome-oriented team confidence (i.e., team outcome confidence), which have often been confounded in previous research. In a first step, two qualitative studies were conducted to identify all possible sources of team confidence in basketball and in soccer. In a second step, three quantitative studies were conducted to further investigate the sources of team outcome confidence in soccer (N = 1028) and in basketball (N = 867), and the sources of collective efficacy in basketball (N = 825). Players perceived high-quality performance as the most important factor for their team outcome confidence. With regard to collective efficacy, team enthusiasm was perceived as most predictive determinant. Positive coaching emerged as second most decisive factor for both types of team confidence. In contrast, negative communication and expression by the players or the coach was perceived as the most decisive predictor of low levels of team confidence. At item level, all studies pointed to the importance of team confidence expression by the athlete leaders (i.e., leader figures within the team) and the coach. The present manuscript sheds light on the precursors of high and low levels of team confidence. Athlete leaders and the coach emerged as key triggers of both upward and downward spirals of team confidence, thereby contaminating all team members.
Tu, Chengjian; Shen, Shichen; Sheng, Quanhu; Shyr, Yu; Qu, Jun
2017-01-30
Reliable quantification of low-abundance proteins in complex proteomes is challenging largely owing to the limited number of spectra/peptides identified. In this study we developed a straightforward method to improve the quantitative accuracy and precision of proteins by strategically retrieving the less confident peptides that were previously filtered out using the standard target-decoy search strategy. The filtered-out MS/MS spectra matched to confidently-identified proteins were recovered, and the peptide-spectrum-match FDR were re-calculated and controlled at a confident level of FDR≤1%, while protein FDR maintained at ~1%. We evaluated the performance of this strategy in both spectral count- and ion current-based methods. >60% increase of total quantified spectra/peptides was respectively achieved for analyzing a spike-in sample set and a public dataset from CPTAC. Incorporating the peptide retrieval strategy significantly improved the quantitative accuracy and precision, especially for low-abundance proteins (e.g. one-hit proteins). Moreover, the capacity of confidently discovering significantly-altered proteins was also enhanced substantially, as demonstrated with two spike-in datasets. In summary, improved quantitative performance was achieved by this peptide recovery strategy without compromising confidence of protein identification, which can be readily implemented in a broad range of quantitative proteomics techniques including label-free or labeling approaches. We hypothesize that more quantifiable spectra and peptides in a protein, even including less confident peptides, could help reduce variations and improve protein quantification. Hence the peptide retrieval strategy was developed and evaluated in two spike-in sample sets with different LC-MS/MS variations using both MS1- and MS2-based quantitative approach. The list of confidently identified proteins using the standard target-decoy search strategy was fixed and more spectra/peptides with less
Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.
2011-01-01
This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific ex
Principles of Bridge Reliability
Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, Andrzej S.
The paper gives a brief introduction to the basic principles of structural reliability theory and its application to bridge engineering. Fundamental concepts like failure probability and reliability index are introduced. Ultimate as well as serviceability limit states for bridges are formulated...
Improving machinery reliability
Bloch, Heinz P
1998-01-01
This totally revised, updated and expanded edition provides proven techniques and procedures that extend machinery life, reduce maintenance costs, and achieve optimum machinery reliability. This essential text clearly describes the reliability improvement and failure avoidance steps practiced by best-of-class process plants in the U.S. and Europe.
Hawaii Electric System Reliability
Loose, Verne William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2012-08-01
This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.
Hawaii electric system reliability.
Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William
2012-09-01
This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.
Error Bounds for the Sign Function
Frommer, Andreas; Lippert, Thomas; Rittich, H
2011-01-01
The Overlap operator fulfills the Ginsparg-Wilson relation exactly and therefore represents an optimal discretization of the QCD Dirac operator with respect to chiral symmetry. When computing propagators or in HMC simulations, where one has to invert the overlap operator using some iterative solver, one has to approxomate the action of the sign function of the (symmetrized) Wilson fermion matrix Q on a vector b in each iteration. This is usually done iteratively using a "primary" Lanczos iteration. In this process, it is very important to have good stopping criteria which allow to reliably assess the quality of the approximation to the action of the sign function computed so far. In this work we show how to cheaply recover a secondary Lanczos process, starting at an arbitrary Lanczos vector of the primary process and how to use this secondary process to efficiently obtain computable error estimates and error bounds for the Lanczos approximations to sign(Q)b, where the sign function is approximated by the Zolo...
Bounds on Contention Management in Radio Networks
Ghaffari, Mohsen; Lynch, Nancy; Newport, Calvin
2012-01-01
We study the local broadcast problem in two well-studied wireless network models. The local broadcast problem assumes that processes in a wireless network are provided messages, one by one, that must be delivered to their neighbors. In the classical wireless network model, in which links are reliable and collisions consistent, the most commonly used local broadcast strategy is the Decay approach introduced 25 years ago by Bar-Yehuda et al. During the 25-year period in which this strategy has been used, it has remained an open question whether it is optimal. In this paper, we resolve this long-standing question by proving matching lower bounds. We then turn our attention to the more recent dual graph model which generalizes the classical model by introducing unreliable edges. In this model we provide a new local broadcast algorithm and prove it optimal. Our results also establish a separation between the two models with respect to local broadcast, proving the dual graph model to be strictly harder than its cla...
Organically bound tritium analysis in environmental samples
Baglan, N. [CEA/DAM/DIF, Arpajon (France); Kim, S.B. [AECL, Chalk River Laboratories, Chalk River, ON (Canada); Cossonnet, C. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/STEME/LMRE, Orsay (France); Croudace, I.W.; Warwick, P.E. [GAU-Radioanalytical, University of Southampton, Southampton (United Kingdom); Fournier, M. [IRSN/DG/DMQ, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Galeriu, D. [IFIN-HH, Horia-Hulubei, Inst. Phys. and Nucl. Eng., Bucharest (Romania); Momoshima, N. [Kyushu University, Radioisotope Ctr., Fukuoka (Japan); Ansoborlo, E. [CEA/DEN/DRCP/CETAMA, Bagnols-sur-Ceze (France)
2015-03-15
Organically bound tritium (OBT) has become of increased interest within the last decade, with a focus on its behaviour and also its analysis, which are important to assess tritium distribution in the environment. In contrast, there are no certified reference materials and no standard analytical method through the international organization related to OBT. In order to resolve this issue, an OBT international working group was created in May 2012. Over 20 labs from around the world participated and submitted their results for the first intercomparison exercise results on potato (Sep 2013). The samples, specially-prepared potatoes, were provided in March 2013 to each participant. Technical information and results from this first exercise are discussed here for all the labs which have realised the five replicates necessary to allow a reliable statistical treatment. The results are encouraging as the increased number of participating labs did not degrade the observed dispersion of the results for a similar activity level. Therefore, the results do not seem to depend on the analytical procedure used. From this work an optimised procedure can start to be developed to deal with OBT analysis and will guide subsequent planned OBT trials by the international group.
Algora, Carlos; Espinet-Gonzalez, Pilar; Vazquez, Manuel; Bosco, Nick; Miller, David; Kurtz, Sarah; Rubio, Francisca; McConnell,Robert
2016-04-15
This chapter describes the accumulated knowledge on CPV reliability with its fundamentals and qualification. It explains the reliability of solar cells, modules (including optics) and plants. The chapter discusses the statistical distributions, namely exponential, normal and Weibull. The reliability of solar cells includes: namely the issues in accelerated aging tests in CPV solar cells, types of failure and failures in real time operation. The chapter explores the accelerated life tests, namely qualitative life tests (mainly HALT) and quantitative accelerated life tests (QALT). It examines other well proven and experienced PV cells and/or semiconductor devices, which share similar semiconductor materials, manufacturing techniques or operating conditions, namely, III-V space solar cells and light emitting diodes (LEDs). It addresses each of the identified reliability issues and presents the current state of the art knowledge for their testing and evaluation. Finally, the chapter summarizes the CPV qualification and reliability standards.
Confidence in outcome estimates from systematic reviews used in informed consent.
Fritz, Robert; Bauer, Janet G; Spackman, Sue S; Bains, Amanjyot K; Jetton-Rangel, Jeanette
2016-12-01
Evidence-based dentistry now guides informed consent in which clinicians are obliged to provide patients with the most current, best evidence, or best estimates of outcomes, of regimens, therapies, treatments, procedures, materials, and equipment or devices when developing personal oral health care, treatment plans. Yet, clinicians require that the estimates provided from systematic reviews be verified to their validity, reliability, and contextualized as to performance competency so that clinicians may have confidence in explaining outcomes to patients in clinical practice. The purpose of this paper was to describe types of informed estimates from which clinicians may have confidence in their capacity to assist patients in competent decision-making, one of the most important concepts of informed consent. Using systematic review methodology, researchers provide clinicians with valid best estimates of outcomes regarding a subject of interest from best evidence. Best evidence is verified through critical appraisals using acceptable sampling methodology either by scoring instruments (Timmer analysis) or checklist (grade), a Cochrane Collaboration standard that allows transparency in open reviews. These valid best estimates are then tested for reliability using large databases. Finally, valid and reliable best estimates are assessed for meaning using quantification of margins and uncertainties. Through manufacturer and researcher specifications, quantification of margins and uncertainties develops a performance competency continuum by which valid, reliable best estimates may be contextualized for their performance competency: at a lowest margin performance competency (structural failure), high margin performance competency (estimated true value of success), or clinically determined critical values (clinical failure). Informed consent may be achieved when clinicians are confident of their ability to provide useful and accurate best estimates of outcomes regarding
Bound Polaron Pair Formation in Poly (phenylenevinylenes)
Rothberg, Lewis
The following sections are included: * INTRODUCTION * PHOTOGENERATED YIELD OF SINGLET EXCITONS * AGGREGRATION EFFECTS ON EXCITED STATE PHOTO-GENERATION * ASSIGNMENT TO BOUND POLARON PAIRS AND DISCUSSION * PROBLEMS WITH THE BOUND POLARON PAIR PICTURE AND CONCLUSION * REFERENCES
An Exponential Bound for Cox Regression☆
Kosorok, M. R.
2012-01-01
We present an asymptotic exponential bound for the deviation of the survival function estimator of the Cox model. We show that the bound holds even when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. PMID:23565013
An Exponential Bound for Cox Regression.
Goldberg, Y; Kosorok, M R
2012-07-01
We present an asymptotic exponential bound for the deviation of the survival function estimator of the Cox model. We show that the bound holds even when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold.
Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost
2006-03-01
Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.
Exact two-terminal reliability of some directed networks
Tanguy, Christian
2008-01-01
The calculation of network reliability in a probabilistic context has long been an issue of practical and academic importance. Conventional approaches (determination of bounds, sums of disjoint products algorithms, Monte Carlo evaluations, studies of the reliability polynomials, etc.) only provide approximations when the network's size increases, even when nodes do not fail and all edges have the same reliability p. We consider here a directed, generic graph of arbitrary size mimicking real-life long-haul communication networks, and give the exact, analytical solution for the two-terminal reliability. This solution involves a product of transfer matrices, in which individual reliabilities of edges and nodes are taken into account. The special case of identical edge and node reliabilities (p and rho, respectively) is addressed. We consider a case study based on a commonly-used configuration, and assess the influence of the edges being directed (or not) on various measures of network performance. While the two-...
Key management and encryption under the bounded storage model.
Draelos, Timothy John; Neumann, William Douglas; Lanzone, Andrew J.; Anderson, William Erik
2005-11-01
There are several engineering obstacles that need to be solved before key management and encryption under the bounded storage model can be realized. One of the critical obstacles hindering its adoption is the construction of a scheme that achieves reliable communication in the event that timing synchronization errors occur. One of the main accomplishments of this project was the development of a new scheme that solves this problem. We show in general that there exist message encoding techniques under the bounded storage model that provide an arbitrarily small probability of transmission error. We compute the maximum capacity of this channel using the unsynchronized key-expansion as side-channel information at the decoder and provide tight lower bounds for a particular class of key-expansion functions that are pseudo-invariant to timing errors. Using our results in combination with Dziembowski et al. [11] encryption scheme we can construct a scheme that solves the timing synchronization error problem. In addition to this work we conducted a detailed case study of current and future storage technologies. We analyzed the cost, capacity, and storage data rate of various technologies, so that precise security parameters can be developed for bounded storage encryption schemes. This will provide an invaluable tool for developing these schemes in practice.
Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.
Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A
2017-07-01
Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.
"Yes, we can!" review on team confidence in sports.
Fransen, Katrien; Mertens, Niels; Feltz, Deborah; Boen, Filip
2017-08-01
During the last decade, team confidence has received more and more attention in the sport psychology literature. Research has demonstrated that athletes who are more confident in their team's abilities exert more effort, set more challenging goals, are more resilient when facing adversities, and ultimately perform better. This article reviews the existing literature in order to provide more clarity in terms of the conceptualization and the operationalization of team confidence. We thereby distinguish between collective efficacy (i.e., process-oriented team confidence) and team outcome confidence (i.e., outcome-oriented team confidence). In addition, both the sources as well as the outcomes of team confidence will be discussed. Furthermore, we will go deeper into the dispersion of team confidence and we will evaluate the current guidelines on how to measure both types of team confidence. Building upon this base, the article then highlights interesting avenues for future research in order to further improve both our theoretical knowledge on team confidence and its application to the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
New bounds for multi-dimensional packing
Seiden, S.; Stee, van, Rob
2001-01-01
New upper and lower bounds are presented for a multi-dimensional generalization of bin packing called box packing. Several variants of this problem, including bounded space box packing, square packing, variable sized box packing and resource augmented box packing are also studied. The main results, stated for d=2, are as follows: A new upper bound of 2.66013 for online box packing, a new $14/9 + varepsilon$ polynomial time offline approximation algorithm for square packing, a new upper bound ...
The Acquisition of Bound and Free Anaphora.
Koster, Jan; Koster, Charlotte
Most linguists assume that bound anaphors such as "himself" are connected with their antecedents in a different way from free anaphors such as "him." Bound anaphora resolution is deterministic, based on Principle A of Chomsky's binding theory. Free anaphors, pronominals, cannot be bound in the domain of reflexives (principle…
Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations in macroeconomics
D. Massaro
2012-01-01
This thesis studies the effect of individual bounded rationality on aggregate macroeconomic dynamics. Boundedly rational agents are specified as using simple heuristics in their decision making. An important aspect of the type of bounded rationality described in this thesis is that the population of
Bound entangled states invariant under Ux
Wang Zhen; Wang Zhi-Xi
2008-01-01
This paper obtains an entangled condition for isotropic-like states by using an atomic map. It constructs a class of bound entangled states from the entangled condition and shows that the partial transposition of the state from the constructed bound entangled class is an edge bound entangled state by using range criterion.
Tight adversary bounds for composite functions
Hoyer, P.; Spalek, R.
2005-01-01
The quantum adversary method is a very versatile method for proving lower bounds on quantum algorithms. It has many equivalent formulations, yields tight bounds for many computational problems, and has natural connections to classical lower bounds. One of its formulations is in terms of the spectral
Computing the bounds on the loss rates
Fourneau J.-M.; Mokdad L.; Pekergin N.
2002-01-01
We consider an example network where we compute the bounds on cell loss rates. The stochastic bounds for these loss rates using simple arguments lead to models easier to solve. We proved, using stochastic orders, that the loss rates of these easier models are really the bounds of our original model. For ill-balanced configurations these models give good estimates of loss rates.
Labeling schemes for bounded degree graphs
Adjiashvili, David; Rotbart, Noy Galil
2014-01-01
graphs. Our results complement a similar bound recently obtained for bounded depth trees [Fraigniaud and Korman, SODA 2010], and may provide new insights for closing the long standing gap for adjacency in trees [Alstrup and Rauhe, FOCS 2002]. We also provide improved labeling schemes for bounded degree...
Counting Young Tableaux of Bounded Height
Bergeron, Francois; Gascon, Francis
2000-03-01
We show that formulas of Gessel, for the generating functions for Young standard tableaux of height bounded by k (see [2]), satisfy linear differential equations, with polynomial coefficients, equivalent to P-recurrences conjectured by Favreau, Krob and the first author (see [1]) for the number of bounded height tableaux and pairs of bounded height tableaux.
Permanently Secure Quantum Bit Commitment from a Temporary Computation Bound
Kent, A
1997-01-01
Alice is a private citizen whose computational resources are modest. Bob represents a large organisation at the forefront of computational and cryptological research. Bob's computational and cryptanalytic power is unknown to Alice, but Bob can confidently estimate a bound on Alice's ability to carry out a computation that would break a classical bit commitment. Alice wishes to commit a bit to Bob. She requires that he will never be able to decode it unless she chooses to reveal it, but also that if she does he will be confident that her commitment was genuine. We describe here a simple quantum bit commitment scheme which satisfies these criteria. By iterating the scheme, we obtain quantum bit commitment schemes which allow either Alice or Bob to commit bits to the other. These schemes do not contradict Mayers' and Lo and Chau's no-go results: they rely on a temporary computability bound. However, they are permanently secure against cheating by either party, provided only that Alice was not able to break Bob's...
Boosting equal time bound states
Dietrich, Dennis D; Jarvinen, Matti
2012-01-01
We present an explicit and exact boost of a relativistic bound state defined at equal time of the constituents in the Born approximation (lowest order in hbar). To this end, we construct the Poincar\\'e generators of QED and QCD in D=1+1 dimensions, using Gauss' law to express A^0 in terms of the fermion fields in A^1=0 gauge. We determine the fermion-antifermion bound states in the Born approximation as eigenstates of the time and space translation generators P^0 and P^1. The boost operator is combined with a gauge transformation so as to maintain the gauge condition A^1=0 in the new frame. We verify that the boosted state remains an eigenstate of P^0 and P^1 with appropriately transformed eigenvalues and determine the transformation law of the equal-time, relativistic wave function. The shape of the wave function is independent of the CM momentum when expressed in terms of a variable, which is quadratically related to the distance x between the fermions. As a consequence, the Lorentz contraction of the wave ...
Asymmetric dark matter bound state
Bi, Xiao-Jun; Kang, Zhaofeng; Ko, P.; Li, Jinmian; Li, Tianjun
2017-02-01
We propose an interesting framework for asymmetric scalar dark matter (ADM), which has novel collider phenomenology in terms of an unstable ADM bound state (ADMonium) produced via Higgs portals. ADMonium is a natural consequence of the basic features of ADM: the (complex scalar) ADM is charged under a dark local U (1 )d symmetry which is broken at a low scale and provides a light gauge boson X . The dark gauge coupling is strong and then ADM can annihilate away into X -pair effectively. Therefore, the ADM can form a bound state due to its large self-interaction via X mediation. To explore the collider signature of ADMonium, we propose that ADM has a two-Higgs doublet portal. The ADMonium can have a sizable mixing with the heavier Higgs boson, which admits a large cross section of ADMonium production associated with b b ¯. The resulting signature at the LHC depends on the decays of X . In this paper we consider a case of particular interest: p p →b b ¯ +ADMonium followed by ADMonium→2 X →2 e+e- where the electrons are identified as (un)converted photons. It may provide a competitive explanation to heavy di-photon resonance searches at the LHC.
Endurance bounds of aerial systems
Harrington, Aaron M.; Kroninger, Christopher M.
2014-06-01
Within the past few years micro aerial vehicles (MAVs) have received much more attention and are starting to proliferate into military as well as civilian roles. However, one of the major drawbacks for this technology currently, has been their poor endurance, usually below 10 minutes. This is a direct result of the inefficiencies inherent in their design. Often times, designers do not consider the various components in the vehicle design and match their performance to the desired mission for the vehicle. These vehicles lack a prescribed set of design guidelines or empirically derived design equations which often limits their design to selection of commercial off-the-shelf components without proper consideration of their affect on vehicle performance. In the current study, the design space for different vehicle configurations has been examined including insect flapping, avian flapping, rotary wing, and fixed wing, and their performance bounds are established. The propulsion system typical of a rotary wing vehicle is analyzed to establish current baselines for efficiency of vehicles at this scale. The power draw from communications is analyzed to determine its impact on vehicle performance. Finally, a representative fixed wing MAV is examined and the effects of adaptive structures as a means for increasing vehicle endurance and range are examined. This paper seeks to establish the performance bounds for micro air vehicles and establish a path forward for future designs so that efficiency may be maximized.
Bechtle, Philip [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Physikalisches Inst.; Heinemeyer, Sven [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Santander (Spain); Staal, Oscar [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physics; Stefaniak, Tim; Williams, Karina E. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Physikalisches Inst.; Bonn Univ. (Germany). Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics; Weiglein, Georg [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Brein, Oliver
2013-12-15
We describe the new developments in version 4 of the public computer code HiggsBounds. HiggsBounds is a tool to test models with arbitrary Higgs sectors, containing both neutral and charged Higgs bosons, against the published exclusion bounds from Higgs searches at the LEP, Tevatron and LHC experiments. From the model predictions for the Higgs masses, branching ratios, production cross sections and total decay widths - which are specified by the user in the input for the program - the code calculates the predicted signal rates for the search channels considered in the experimental data. The signal rates are compared to the expected and observed cross section limits from the Higgs searches to determine whether a point in the model parameter space is excluded at 95% confidence level. In this paper we present a modification of the HiggsBounds main algorithm that extends the exclusion test in order to ensure that it provides useful results in the presence of one or more significant excesses in the data, corresponding to potential Higgs signals. We also describe a new method to test whether the limits from an experimental search performed under certain model assumptions can be applied to a different theoretical model. Further developments discussed here include a framework to take into account theoretical uncertainties on the Higgs mass predictions, and the possibility to obtain the {chi}{sup 2} likelihood of Higgs exclusion limits from LEP. Extensions to the user subroutines from earlier versions of HiggsBounds are described. The new features are demonstrated by additional example programs.
Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.
Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer
2016-08-01
A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.
Photovoltaic system reliability
Maish, A.B.; Atcitty, C. [Sandia National Labs., NM (United States); Greenberg, D. [Ascension Technology, Inc., Lincoln Center, MA (United States)] [and others
1997-10-01
This paper discusses the reliability of several photovoltaic projects including SMUD`s PV Pioneer project, various projects monitored by Ascension Technology, and the Colorado Parks project. System times-to-failure range from 1 to 16 years, and maintenance costs range from 1 to 16 cents per kilowatt-hour. Factors contributing to the reliability of these systems are discussed, and practices are recommended that can be applied to future projects. This paper also discusses the methodology used to collect and analyze PV system reliability data.
Structural Reliability Methods
Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.
of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature......The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...
Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?
Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam
2014-01-01
While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...
Confidence of model based shape reconstruction from sparse data
Baka, N.; de Bruijne, Marleen; Reiber, J. H. C.
2010-01-01
and assign a confidence value to the resulting reconstructed shape. An evaluation study is performed to compare three methods used for sparse SSM fitting w.r.t. specificity, generalization ability, and correctness of estimated confidence limits with an increasing amount of input information. We find...... that the proposed constrained shape model outperforms the other models, is robust against the selection and amount of sparse information, and indicates the shape confidence well....
The Effect of Self-confidence in SLA
李艳
2012-01-01
Krashen’s affective filter theory drew researchers’ attention to the fresh field of internal factors of learners. But researchers seem to pay too much attention to the other factors while tending to neglect a factor that we cannot afford to play down in language learning research—self-confidence. This paper is designed to discuss the close relationship between self-confidence and some of the other important affective factors, and furthermore raise appropriate concern over self-confidence.
Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event
Sandra Buratti; Carl Martin Allwood
2012-01-01
We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate) by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying c...
Generalized Confidence Interval for the Common Coefficient of Variation
Behboodian, Javad; Jafari, Ali Akbar
2014-01-01
In this article, we consider the problem of constructing the confidence interval and testing hypothesis for the common coefficient of variation (CV) of several normal populations. A new method is suggested using the concepts of generalized p-value and generalized confidence interval. Using this new method and a method proposed by Tian (2005), we obtain a shorter confidence interval for the common CV. This combination method has good properties in terms of length and coverage probability compa...
Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?
Panagiotis Konstantinou; Athanasios Tagkalakis
2010-01-01
This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, possibly bec...
Target plane confidence boundaries: mathematics of the 1997 XF11 scare.
Milani, A.; Valsecchi, G. B.
The uncertainty of the close approach distance of a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) can be represented on a Modified Target Plane (MTP), a modification of the one used by Opik. The MTP is orthogonal to the geocentric velocity at the closest approach point along the nominal orbit, solution of the least square adjustment to the astrometric observations. The confidence regions of this solution, in the 6-dimensional space of orbital elements, for an epoch close to the observations, are well approximated by a family of concentric ellipsoids if the observed arc is not too short. In the linear approximation, these ellipsoids are mapped on the MTP into concentric ellipses, which can be computed by solving the variational equation for the state transition matrix up to the close approach time. For an asteroid observed at only one opposition, however, if the close approach is expected after many revolutions, the ellipses on the MTP become extremely elongated and therefore the linear approximation may fail. In this case the confidence boundaries on the MTP, by definition the nonlinear images of the confidence ellipsoids, may not be well approximated by the ellipses. In theory the Monte Carlo method by Muinonen and Bowell (1993) can be used to explicitly compute the nonlinear confidence boundaries, but in practice the computational load is very heavy, since to estimate a low probability event, the number of test cases must be larger than the inverse of the probability. We propose a new method to compute semilinear confidence boundaries on the MTP, based on the theory developed by Milani (1998) to efficiently compute confidence boundaries for predicted observations. This method is a reasonable compromise between reliability and computational load, and can be used for real time risk assessment. We apply this technique to discuss the recent case of asteroid 1997 XF11, which appeared, on the basis of the observations available at the beginning of March 1998, to be on an orbit
Aaron Schurger
Full Text Available In humans and some other species perceptual decision-making is complemented by the ability to make confidence judgements about the certainty of sensory evidence. While both forms of decision process have been studied empirically, the precise relationship between them remains poorly understood. We performed an experiment that combined a perceptual decision-making task (identifying the category of a faint visual stimulus with a confidence-judgement task (wagering on the accuracy of each perceptual decision. The visual stimulation paradigm required steady fixation, so we used eye-tracking to control for stray eye movements. Our data analyses revealed an unexpected and counterintuitive interaction between the steadiness of fixation (prior to and during stimulation, perceptual decision making, and post-decision wagering: greater variability in gaze direction during fixation was associated with significantly increased visual-perceptual sensitivity, but significantly decreased reliability of confidence judgements. The latter effect could not be explained by a simple change in overall confidence (i.e. a criterion artifact, but rather was tied to a change in the degree to which high wagers predicted correct decisions (i.e. the sensitivity of the confidence judgement. We found no evidence of a differential change in pupil diameter that could account for the effect and thus our results are consistent with fixational eye movements being the relevant covariate. However, we note that small changes in pupil diameter can sometimes cause artefactual fluctuations in measured gaze direction and this possibility could not be fully ruled out. In either case, our results suggest that perceptual decisions and confidence judgements can be processed independently and point toward a new avenue of research into the relationship between them.
Decoherence in time evolution of bound entanglement
Sun, Z; Sun, C P; Wang, X; Sun, Zhe; Wang, Xiaoguang
2007-01-01
We study a dynamic process of disentanglement by considering the time evolution of bound entanglement for a quantum open system, two qutrits coupling to a common environment. Here, the initial quantum correlations of the two qutrits are characterized by the bound entanglement. In order to show the universality of the role of environment on bound entanglement, both bosonic and spin environments are considered. We found that the bound entanglement displays collapses and revivals, and it can be stable against small temperature and time change. The thermal fluctuation effects on bound entanglement are also considered.
Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning
Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2010-10-07
Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.
Cultural competence knowledge and confidence after classroom activities
Muzumdar, Jagannath Mohan; Holiday-Goodman, Monica; Black, Curtis; Powers, Mary
2010-01-01
To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum...
Confidence Intervals for Standardized Effect Sizes: Theory, Application, and Implementation
Ken Kelley
2007-02-01
Full Text Available The behavioral, educational, and social sciences are undergoing a paradigmatic shift in methodology, from disciplines that focus on the dichotomous outcome of null hypothesis significance tests to disciplines that report and interpret effect sizes and their corresponding confidence intervals. Due to the arbitrariness of many measurement instruments used in the behavioral, educational, and social sciences, some of the most widely reported effect sizes are standardized. Although forming confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes can be very beneficial, such confidence interval procedures are generally difficult to implement because they depend on noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions. At present, no main-stream statistical package provides exact confidence intervals for standardized effects without the use of specialized programming scripts. Methods for the Behavioral, Educational, and Social Sciences (MBESS is an R package that has routines for calculating confidence intervals for noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions, which are then used in the calculation of exact confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes by using the confidence interval transformation and inversion principles. The present article discusses the way in which confidence intervals are formed for standardized effect sizes and illustrates how such confidence intervals can be easily formed using MBESS in R.
Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.
Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe
2014-01-01
We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.
Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory
Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe
2014-01-01
We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135
N. A. Nayak
1960-05-01
Full Text Available The reliability aspect of electronic equipment's is discussed. To obtain optimum results, close cooperation between the components engineer, the design engineer and the production engineer is suggested.
Reliability prediction techniques
Whittaker, B.; Worthington, B.; Lord, J.F.; Pinkard, D.
1986-01-01
The paper demonstrates the feasibility of applying reliability assessment techniques to mining equipment. A number of techniques are identified and described and examples of their use in assessing mining equipment are given. These techniques include: reliability prediction; failure analysis; design audit; maintainability; availability and the life cycle costing. Specific conclusions regarding the usefulness of each technique are outlined. The choice of techniques depends upon both the type of equipment being assessed and its stage of development, with numerical prediction best suited for electronic equipment and fault analysis and design audit suited to mechanical equipment. Reliability assessments involve much detailed and time consuming work but it has been demonstrated that the resulting reliability improvements lead to savings in service costs which more than offset the cost of the evaluation.
Capacity Bounds for Parallel Optical Wireless Channels
Chaaban, Anas
2016-01-01
A system consisting of parallel optical wireless channels with a total average intensity constraint is studied. Capacity upper and lower bounds for this system are derived. Under perfect channel-state information at the transmitter (CSIT), the bounds have to be optimized with respect to the power allocation over the parallel channels. The optimization of the lower bound is non-convex, however, the KKT conditions can be used to find a list of possible solutions one of which is optimal. The optimal solution can then be found by an exhaustive search algorithm, which is computationally expensive. To overcome this, we propose low-complexity power allocation algorithms which are nearly optimal. The optimized capacity lower bound nearly coincides with the capacity at high SNR. Without CSIT, our capacity bounds lead to upper and lower bounds on the outage probability. The outage probability bounds meet at high SNR. The system with average and peak intensity constraints is also discussed.
Exact entanglement bases and general bound entanglement
Zhong, Z Z
2004-01-01
In this paper, we give the more general bound entangled states associated with the unextendible product bases (UPB), i.e. by using of the exact entanglement bases (EEB) and the complete basis with unextendible product bases (CBUPB), we prove that the arbitrary convex sums of the uniform mixtures (bound entangled states) associated with UPBs are still bound entangled states. Further, we discuss the equivalent transformation group and classification of the CBUPBs, and by using this classification, we prove that in the meaning of indistinguishability, the set of the above all possible bound entangled states can be reduced to the set of all possible mixtures of some fixed basic bound entangled states. At last, we prove that every operating of the partial transposition (PT) map acting upon a density matrix under any bipartite partitioning induces a mapping from the above reduced set of bound entangled states to oneself, which corresponds to a non-identical permutation of the basic bound entangled states.
Thermodynamic law from the entanglement entropy bound
Park, Chanyong
2015-01-01
From black hole thermodynamics, the Bekenstein bound has been proposed as a universal thermal entropy bound. It has been further generalized to an entanglement entropy bound which is valid even in a quantum system. In a quantumly entangled system, the non-negativity of the relative entropy leads to the entanglement entropy bound. When the entanglement entropy bound is saturated, a quantum system satisfies the thermodynamics-like law with an appropriately defined entanglement temperature. We show that the saturation of the entanglement entropy bound accounts for a universal feature of the entanglement temperature proportional to the inverse of the system size. In addition, we also find that a global quench unlike the excitation does not preserve the entanglement entropy bound.
The rating reliability calculator
Solomon David J
2004-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.
Reliability of power connections
BRAUNOVIC Milenko
2007-01-01
Despite the use of various preventive maintenance measures, there are still a number of problem areas that can adversely affect system reliability. Also, economical constraints have pushed the designs of power connections closer to the limits allowed by the existing standards. The major parameters influencing the reliability and life of Al-Al and Al-Cu connections are identified. The effectiveness of various palliative measures is determined and the misconceptions about their effectiveness are dealt in detail.
Analysis of upper and lower bounds of the frame noise in linear detector arrays
Jaggi, S.
1991-01-01
This paper estimates the upper and lower bounds of the frame noise of a linear detector array that uses a one-dimensional scan pattern. Using chi-square distribution, it is analytically shown why it is necessary to use the average of the variances and not the average of the standard deviations to estimate these bounds. Also, a criteria for determining whether any excessively noisy lines exist among the detectors is derived from these bounds. Using a Gaussian standard random variable generator, these bounds are demonstrated to be accurate within the specified confidence interval. A silicon detector array is then used for actual dark current measurements. The criterion developed for determination of noisy detectors is checked on the experimentally obtained data.
Spectral computations for bounded operators
Ahues, Mario; Limaye, Balmohan
2001-01-01
Exact eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and principal vectors of operators with infinite dimensional ranges can rarely be found. Therefore, one must approximate such operators by finite rank operators, then solve the original eigenvalue problem approximately. Serving as both an outstanding text for graduate students and as a source of current results for research scientists, Spectral Computations for Bounded Operators addresses the issue of solving eigenvalue problems for operators on infinite dimensional spaces. From a review of classical spectral theory through concrete approximation techniques to finite dimensional situations that can be implemented on a computer, this volume illustrates the marriage of pure and applied mathematics. It contains a variety of recent developments, including a new type of approximation that encompasses a variety of approximation methods but is simple to verify in practice. It also suggests a new stopping criterion for the QR Method and outlines advances in both the iterative refineme...
Hsu, Chia Wei; Zhen, Bo; Stone, A. Douglas; Joannopoulos, John D.; Soljačić, Marin
2016-09-01
Bound states in the continuum (BICs) are waves that remain localized even though they coexist with a continuous spectrum of radiating waves that can carry energy away. Their very existence defies conventional wisdom. Although BICs were first proposed in quantum mechanics, they are a general wave phenomenon and have since been identified in electromagnetic waves, acoustic waves in air, water waves and elastic waves in solids. These states have been studied in a wide range of material systems, such as piezoelectric materials, dielectric photonic crystals, optical waveguides and fibres, quantum dots, graphene and topological insulators. In this Review, we describe recent developments in this field with an emphasis on the physical mechanisms that lead to BICs across seemingly very different materials and types of waves. We also discuss experimental realizations, existing applications and directions for future work.
Collins, A.L., E-mail: adrian.collins@adas.co.uk [ADAS, Pendeford House, Wobaston Road, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP (United Kingdom); Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Williams, L.J.; Zhang, Y.S. [ADAS, Pendeford House, Wobaston Road, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP (United Kingdom); Marius, M. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Dungait, J.A.J. [Department of Sustainable Systems and Grassland Science, Rothamsted Research—North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Smallman, D.J. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Dixon, E.R. [Department of Sustainable Systems and Grassland Science, Rothamsted Research—North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Stringfellow, A. [Civil Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom); Sear, D.A. [Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Jones, J.I. [School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS (United Kingdom); Naden, P.S. [CEH Wallingford, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB (United Kingdom)
2013-07-01
The ingress of particulate material into freshwater spawning substrates is thought to be contributing to the declining success of salmonids reported over recent years for many rivers. Accordingly, the need for reliable information on the key sources of the sediment problem has progressed up the management agenda. Whilst previous work has focussed on apportioning the sources of minerogenic fine sediment degrading spawning habitats, there remains a need to develop procedures for generating corresponding information for the potentially harmful sediment-bound organic matter that represents an overlooked component of interstitial sediment. A source tracing procedure based on composite signatures combining bulk stable {sup 13}C and {sup 15}N isotope values with organic molecular structures detected using near infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy was therefore used to assess the primary sources of sediment-bound organic matter sampled from artificial spawning redds. Composite signatures were selected using a combination of the Kruskal–Wallis H-test, principal component analysis and GA-driven discriminant function analysis. Interstitial sediment samples were collected using time-integrating basket traps which were inserted at the start of the salmonid spawning season and extracted in conjunction with critical phases of fish development (eyeing, hatch, emergence, late spawning). Over the duration of these four basket extractions, the overall relative frequency-weighted average median (± 95% confidence limits) source contributions to the interstitial sediment-bound organic matter were estimated to be in the order: instream decaying vegetation (39 ± < 1%; full range 0–77%); damaged road verges (28 ± < 1%; full range 0–77%); septic tanks (22 ± < 1%; full range 0–50%), and; farm yard manures/slurries (11 ± < 1%; full range 0–61%). The reported procedure provides a promising basis for understanding the key sources of interstitial sediment-bound organic matter
Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis
Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.
Mirzakhani, Kobra; Shorab, Nahid Jahani
2015-09-01
Self-confidence is one of the main components of clinical competence, and it is considered to be an important indicator of ability and competence. The aim of this study was to determine the confidence of midwifery graduates from Mashhad College of nursing and midwifery in fulfilling the required clinical skills. The study was in the form of a cross-sectional study, and it was performed in 2011 on 50 midwifery graduates who had been working in health centers in Mashhad for six months to three years providing midwifery services, as well as on their supervisors having a minimum of 6 months experiences of responsibility in these centers. The research tools included self-assessment tools of self-confidence in midwives and assessment tools of self-confidence in midwifery graduates in fulfilling clinical skills performed by the supervisors. The validity of the tools was confirmed by face validity and content validity, and the reliability of the test was confirmed by test-retest (r = 0.82). After the data were extracted and encoded, they were analyzed using SPSS software version 11.5, descriptive statistics, the t-test, and Pearson's test. Among the midwifery graduates, 84.57% of them had confidence in the area of management of low-risk situations, and 55.51% had confidence in their ability to manage high-risk situations. The self-confidence levels of graduates in fulfilling clinical skills in the management of low-risk and high-risk situations were significantly different (P confidence (P confidence of graduates in fulfilling clinical skills in the management of high-risk situations. In order to achieve such improvement, it is necessary to identify and use methods of increasing graduates' self-confidence in the learning environment by developing an enhanced midwifery curriculum and improved teaching methods.
Sensitivity Analysis of Component Reliability
ZhenhuaGe
2004-01-01
In a system, Every component has its unique position within system and its unique failure characteristics. When a component's reliability is changed, its effect on system reliability is not equal. Component reliability sensitivity is a measure of effect on system reliability while a component's reliability is changed. In this paper, the definition and relative matrix of component reliability sensitivity is proposed, and some of their characteristics are analyzed. All these will help us to analyse or improve the system reliability.
Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.
Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L; Balleteros, Francisco
2016-12-07
Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.
Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine
Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L.; Balleteros, Francisco
2016-01-01
Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets. PMID:27941604
Smadi, Mahmoud A.
2012-12-06
In this paper, we derived an efficient simulation method to evaluate the error rate of wireless communication system. Coherent binary phase-shift keying system is considered with imperfect channel phase recovery. The results presented demonstrate the system performance under very realistic Nakagami-m fading and additive white Gaussian noise channel. On the other hand, the accuracy of the obtained results is verified through running the simulation under a good confidence interval reliability of 95 %. We see that as the number of simulation runs N increases, the simulated error rate becomes closer to the actual one and the confidence interval difference reduces. Hence our results are expected to be of significant practical use for such scenarios. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Brinkman, David J; Tichelaar, Jelle; van Agtmael, Michiel A; de Vries, Theo P G M; Richir, Milan C
2015-07-01
The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between students' self-reported confidence and their objectively assessed competence in prescribing. We assessed the competence in several prescribing skills of 403 fourth-year medical students at the VU University Medical Center, the Netherlands, in a formative simulated examination on a 10-point scale (1 = very low; 10 = very high). Afterwards, the students were asked to rate their confidence in performing each of the prescribing skills on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = very unsure; 5 = very confident). Their assessments were then compared with their self-confidence ratings. Students' overall prescribing performance was adequate (7.0 ± 0.8), but they lacked confidence in 2 essential prescribing skills. Overall, there was a weak positive correlation (r = 0.2, P confidence and actual competence. Therefore, this study suggests that self-reported confidence is not an accurate measure of prescribing competence, and that students lack insight into their own strengths and weaknesses in prescribing. Future studies should focus on developing validated and reliable instruments so that students can assess their prescribing skills.
Reliability Analysis of Elasto-Plastic Structures
1984-01-01
. Failure of this type of system is defined either as formation of a mechanism or by failure of a prescribed number of elements. In the first case failure is independent of the order in which the elements fail, but this is not so by the second definition. The reliability analysis consists of two parts...... are described and the two definitions of failure can be used by the first formulation, but only the failure definition based on formation of a mechanism by the second formulation. The second part of the reliability analysis is an estimate of the failure probability for the structure on the basis...... are obtained if the failure mechanisms are used. Lower bounds can be calculated on the basis of series systems where the elements are the non-failed elements in a non-failed structure (see Augusti & Baratta [3])....
Murphy, P. C.
1986-01-01
An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.
RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling
Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.
2010-01-01
One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…
The Appropriateness of Confidence Ratings in Clinical Judgment.
Garb, Howard N.
1986-01-01
Reviewed studies in which clinicians made judgments and then rated the degree of confidence that they had in each of their judgments. Results reveal little support for the hypothesis that clinicians are overconfident. Confidence ratings were related positively to the validity of judgments in a number of studies. Experienced clinicians made more…
The Restoration of Confidence in Science and Technology Education.
Bybee, Rodger W.
1985-01-01
An analysis is given of the crisis and loss of confidence in science and technology education, due in part to maintenance of outdated purposes, programs, and practices. The need to clarify and reformulate goals and purposes and thus restore confidence is discussed. (MNS)
Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.
Earle, Timothy C
2009-06-01
The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.
Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?
S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)
2009-01-01
textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way
Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.
Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar
1998-01-01
Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…