WorldWideScience

Sample records for reliability analysis benefits

  1. Training benefits of research on operator reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worledge, D.H.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the EPRI Operator Reliability Experiments (ORE) Program is to collect data for use in reliability and safety studies of nuclear power plant operation which more realistically take credit for operator performance in preventing core damage. The three objectives in fulfilling this purpose are: to obtain quantitative/qualitative performance data on operating crew responses in the control room for potential accident sequences by using plant simulators; to test the human cognitive reliability (HCR) correlation; and to develop a data collection analysis procedure. This paper discusses the background to this program, data collection and analysis, and the results of quantitative/qualitative insights stemming from initial work. Special attention is paid to how this program impacts upon simulator use and assessment of simulator fidelity. Attention is also paid to the use of data collection procedures to assist training departments in assessing the quality of their training programs

  2. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  3. Human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougherty, E.M.; Fragola, J.R.

    1988-01-01

    The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach

  4. Reliability benefits of dispersed wind resource development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milligan, M.; Artig, R.

    1998-05-01

    Generating capacity that is available during the utility peak period is worth more than off-peak capacity. Wind power from a single location might not be available during enough of the peak period to provide sufficient value. However, if the wind power plant is developed over geographically disperse locations, the timing and availability of wind power from these multiple sources could provide a better match with the utility's peak load than a single site. There are other issues that arise when considering disperse wind plant development. Singular development can result in economies of scale and might reduce the costs of obtaining multiple permits and multiple interconnections. However, disperse development can result in cost efficiencies if interconnection can be accomplished at lower voltages or at locations closer to load centers. Several wind plants are in various stages of planning or development in the US. Although some of these are small-scale demonstration projects, significant wind capacity has been developed in Minnesota, with additional developments planned in Wyoming, Iowa and Texas. As these and other projects are planned and developed, there is a need to perform analysis of the value of geographically disperse sites on the reliability of the overall wind plant.This paper uses a production-cost/reliability model to analyze the reliability of several wind sites in the state of Minnesota. The analysis finds that the use of a model with traditional reliability measures does not produce consistent, robust results. An approach based on fuzzy set theory is applied in this paper, with improved results. Using such a model, the authors find that system reliability can be optimized with a mix of disperse wind sites

  5. Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  6. Analysis and Application of Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hae Seong; Park, Dong Ho; Kim, Jae Ju

    1999-05-01

    This book tells of analysis and application of reliability, which includes definition, importance and historical background of reliability, function of reliability and failure rate, life distribution and assumption of reliability, reliability of unrepaired system, reliability of repairable system, sampling test of reliability, failure analysis like failure analysis by FEMA and FTA, and cases, accelerated life testing such as basic conception, acceleration and acceleration factor, and analysis of accelerated life testing data, maintenance policy about alternation and inspection.

  7. QUANTIFYING BENEFITS FOR COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Attila GYORGY; Nicoleta VINTILA; Florian GAMAN

    2014-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis is one of the most widely used financial tools to select future investment projects in public and private sector. This method is based on comparing costs and benefits in terms of constant prices. While costs are easier to predict and monetize, the benefits should be identified not only in direct relation with the investment, but also widening the sphere of analysis to indirect benefits experienced by the community from the neighbourhood or the whole society. During finan...

  8. Waste package reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Sastre, C.

    1983-01-01

    Proof of future performance of a complex system such as a high-level nuclear waste package over a period of hundreds to thousands of years cannot be had in the ordinary sense of the word. The general method of probabilistic reliability analysis could provide an acceptable framework to identify, organize, and convey the information necessary to satisfy the criterion of reasonable assurance of waste package performance according to the regulatory requirements set forth in 10 CFR 60. General principles which may be used to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative reliability of a waste package design are indicated and illustrated with a sample calculation of a repository concept in basalt. 8 references, 1 table

  9. Integrated system reliability analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Specific targets: 1) The report shall describe the state of the art of reliability and risk-based assessment of wind turbine components. 2) Development of methodology for reliability and risk-based assessment of the wind turbine at system level. 3) Describe quantitative and qualitative measures...

  10. Structural systems reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frangopol, D.

    1975-01-01

    For an exact evaluation of the reliability of a structure it appears necessary to determine the distribution densities of the loads and resistances and to calculate the correlation coefficients between loads and between resistances. These statistical characteristics can be obtained only on the basis of a long activity period. In case that such studies are missing the statistical properties formulated here give upper and lower bounds of the reliability. (orig./HP) [de

  11. A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

  12. Scyllac equipment reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutscher, W.D.; Johnson, K.J.

    1975-01-01

    Most of the failures in Scyllac can be related to crowbar trigger cable faults. A new cable has been designed, procured, and is currently undergoing evaluation. When the new cable has been proven, it will be worked into the system as quickly as possible without causing too much additional down time. The cable-tip problem may not be easy or even desirable to solve. A tightly fastened permanent connection that maximizes contact area would be more reliable than the plug-in type of connection in use now, but it would make system changes and repairs much more difficult. The balance of the failures have such a low occurrence rate that they do not cause much down time and no major effort is underway to eliminate them. Even though Scyllac was built as an experimental system and has many thousands of components, its reliability is very good. Because of this the experiment has been able to progress at a reasonable pace

  13. Integrating reliability analysis and design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmuson, D.M.

    1980-10-01

    This report describes the Interactive Reliability Analysis Project and demonstrates the advantages of using computer-aided design systems (CADS) in reliability analysis. Common cause failure problems require presentations of systems, analysis of fault trees, and evaluation of solutions to these. Results have to be communicated between the reliability analyst and the system designer. Using a computer-aided design system saves time and money in the analysis of design. Computer-aided design systems lend themselves to cable routing, valve and switch lists, pipe routing, and other component studies. At EG and G Idaho, Inc., the Applicon CADS is being applied to the study of water reactor safety systems

  14. Analysis of benefits

    OpenAIRE

    Kováříková, Kamila

    2012-01-01

    This master thesis deals with employee benefits in the current labour market, especially from the perspective of young employees. The first part is focused on the theory of motivation and employee benefits also with their tax impact on employee's income. Employee benefits in the current labour market, employee's satisfaction and employer's attitude to this issue are analyzed in the second part of this thesis.

  15. Reliability analysis of shutdown system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, C. Senthil; John Arul, A.; Pal Singh, Om; Suryaprakasa Rao, K.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of Shutdown System (SDS) of Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Reliability analysis carried out using Fault Tree Analysis predicts a value of 3.5 x 10 -8 /de for failure of shutdown function in case of global faults and 4.4 x 10 -8 /de for local faults. Based on 20 de/y, the frequency of shutdown function failure is 0.7 x 10 -6 /ry, which meets the reliability target, set by the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. The reliability is limited by Common Cause Failure (CCF) of actuation part of SDS and to a lesser extent CCF of electronic components. The failure frequency of individual systems is -3 /ry, which also meets the safety criteria. Uncertainty analysis indicates a maximum error factor of 5 for the top event unavailability

  16. Analysis of information security reliability: A tutorial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondakci, Suleyman

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a concise reliability analysis of network security abstracted from stochastic modeling, reliability, and queuing theories. Network security analysis is composed of threats, their impacts, and recovery of the failed systems. A unique framework with a collection of the key reliability models is presented here to guide the determination of the system reliability based on the strength of malicious acts and performance of the recovery processes. A unique model, called Attack-obstacle model, is also proposed here for analyzing systems with immunity growth features. Most computer science curricula do not contain courses in reliability modeling applicable to different areas of computer engineering. Hence, the topic of reliability analysis is often too diffuse to most computer engineers and researchers dealing with network security. This work is thus aimed at shedding some light on this issue, which can be useful in identifying models, their assumptions and practical parameters for estimating the reliability of threatened systems and for assessing the performance of recovery facilities. It can also be useful for the classification of processes and states regarding the reliability of information systems. Systems with stochastic behaviors undergoing queue operations and random state transitions can also benefit from the approaches presented here. - Highlights: • A concise survey and tutorial in model-based reliability analysis applicable to information security. • A framework of key modeling approaches for assessing reliability of networked systems. • The framework facilitates quantitative risk assessment tasks guided by stochastic modeling and queuing theory. • Evaluation of approaches and models for modeling threats, failures, impacts, and recovery analysis of information systems

  17. A Note on the Validity and Reliability of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Benefit-Risk Assessment of Medicines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Hernandez, Alberto

    2015-11-01

    The comparative evaluation of benefits and risks is one of the most important tasks during the development, market authorization and post-approval pharmacovigilance of medicinal products. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been recommended to support decision making in the benefit-risk assessment (BRA) of medicines. This paper identifies challenges associated with bias or variability that practitioners may encounter in this field and presents solutions to overcome them. The inclusion of overlapping or preference-complementary criteria, which are frequent violations to the assumptions of this model, should be avoided. For each criterion, a value function translates the original outcomes into preference-related scores. Applying non-linear value functions to criteria defined as the risk of suffering a certain event during the study introduces specific risk behaviours in this prescriptive, rather than descriptive, model and is therefore a questionable practice. MCDA uses weights to compare the importance of the model criteria with each other; during their elicitation a frequent situation where (generally favourable) mild effects are directly traded off against low probabilities of suffering (generally unfavourable) severe effects during the study is known to lead to biased and variable weights and ought to be prevented. The way the outcomes are framed during the elicitation process, positively versus negatively for instance, may also lead to differences in the preference weights, warranting an appropriate justification during each implementation. Finally, extending the weighted-sum MCDA model into a fully inferential tool through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is desirable. However, this task is troublesome and should not ignore that clinical trial endpoints generally are positively correlated.

  18. Analysis of Employee Benefits

    OpenAIRE

    Burešová, Lenka

    2013-01-01

    The target of this bachelor thesis is to analyze employee benefits from the perspective of employees and to employers suggest possible ideas to improve their provision. The work is divided into two parts: theoretical and practical. The theoretical part describes the overal remuneration of employees, payroll system and employee benefits. Benefits are included in the remuneration system, broken and some of them are defined. The practical part presents a survey among employees in the Czech Repub...

  19. Cost benefit justification of nuclear plant reliability improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sayed, M.A.H.; Abdelmonem, N.M.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear power costs are evaluated on the bases of general ground rules (a) vary from time to time (b) vary from country to another (c) even vary from one reactor type to another. The main objective of an electric utility is to provide the electric energy to the different consummers at the lowest possible cost with reasonable reliability level. Rapid increase of the construction costs and fuel prices in recent years have stimulated a great deal of interest in improving the reliability and productivity of new and existing power plants. One of the most important areas is the improvement of the secondary steam loop and the reactor cooling system. The method for evaluating the reliability of steam loop and cooling system utilizes the cut-set technique. The developed method can be easily used to show to what extent the overall reliability of the nuclear plant is affected by the possible failures in the steam and cooling subsystem. The cost reliability trade-off analysis is used to evaluate alternative schemes in the design with a view towards meeting a high reliability goal. Based on historical or estimated failure and repair rate, the reliability of the alternate scheme can be calculated

  20. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  1. Cost benefit analysis vs. referenda

    OpenAIRE

    Martin J. Osborne; Matthew A. Turner

    2007-01-01

    We consider a planner who chooses between two possible public policies and ask whether a referendum or a cost benefit analysis leads to higher welfare. We find that a referendum leads to higher welfare than a cost benefit analyses in "common value" environments. Cost benefit analysis is better in "private value" environments.

  2. Reliability analysis and operator modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik

    1996-01-01

    The paper considers the state of operator modelling in reliability analysis. Operator models are needed in reliability analysis because operators are needed in process control systems. HRA methods must therefore be able to account both for human performance variability and for the dynamics of the interaction. A selected set of first generation HRA approaches is briefly described in terms of the operator model they use, their classification principle, and the actual method they propose. In addition, two examples of second generation methods are also considered. It is concluded that first generation HRA methods generally have very simplistic operator models, either referring to the time-reliability relationship or to elementary information processing concepts. It is argued that second generation HRA methods must recognise that cognition is embedded in a context, and be able to account for that in the way human reliability is analysed and assessed

  3. Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    In order to minimise the total expected life-cycle costs of a wind turbine it is important to estimate the reliability level for all components in the wind turbine. This paper deals with reliability analysis for the tower and blades of onshore wind turbines placed in a wind farm. The limit states...... consideres are in the ultimate limit state (ULS) extreme conditions in the standstill position and extreme conditions during operating. For wind turbines, where the magnitude of the loads is influenced by the control system, the ultimate limit state can occur in both cases. In the fatigue limit state (FLS......) the reliability level for a wind turbine placed in a wind farm is considered, and wake effects from neighbouring wind turbines is taken into account. An illustrative example with calculation of the reliability for mudline bending of the tower is considered. In the example the design is determined according...

  4. Reliability analysis in intelligent machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcinroy, John E.; Saridis, George N.

    1990-01-01

    Given an explicit task to be executed, an intelligent machine must be able to find the probability of success, or reliability, of alternative control and sensing strategies. By using concepts for information theory and reliability theory, new techniques for finding the reliability corresponding to alternative subsets of control and sensing strategies are proposed such that a desired set of specifications can be satisfied. The analysis is straightforward, provided that a set of Gaussian random state variables is available. An example problem illustrates the technique, and general reliability results are presented for visual servoing with a computed torque-control algorithm. Moreover, the example illustrates the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence at the execution level of an intelligent machine.

  5. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BENDING ELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Reliability analysis of the safety levels of the criteria slabs, have been .... was also noted [2] that if the risk level or β < 3.1), the ... reliability analysis. A study [6] has shown that all geometric variables, ..... Germany, 1988. 12. Hasofer, A. M and ...

  6. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  7. Reliability analysis techniques in power plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, N.E.

    1981-01-01

    An overview of reliability analysis techniques is presented as applied to power plant design. The key terms, power plant performance, reliability, availability and maintainability are defined. Reliability modeling, methods of analysis and component reliability data are briefly reviewed. Application of reliability analysis techniques from a design engineering approach to improving power plant productivity is discussed. (author)

  8. Business Cases for Microgrids: Modeling Interactions of Technology Choice, Reliability, Cost, and Benefit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Ryan

    Distributed energy resources (DERs), and increasingly microgrids, are becoming an integral part of modern distribution systems. Interest in microgrids--which are insular and autonomous power networks embedded within the bulk grid--stems largely from the vast array of flexibilities and benefits they can offer stakeholders. Managed well, they can improve grid reliability and resiliency, increase end-use energy efficiency by coupling electric and thermal loads, reduce transmission losses by generating power locally, and may reduce system-wide emissions, among many others. Whether these public benefits are realized, however, depends on whether private firms see a "business case", or private value, in investing. To this end, firms need models that evaluate costs, benefits, risks, and assumptions that underlie decisions to invest. The objectives of this dissertation are to assess the business case for microgrids that provide what industry analysts forecast as two primary drivers of market growth--that of providing energy services (similar to an electric utility) as well as reliability service to customers within. Prototypical first adopters are modeled--using an existing model to analyze energy services and a new model that couples that analysis with one of reliability--to explore interactions between technology choice, reliability, costs, and benefits. The new model has a bi-level hierarchy; it uses heuristic optimization to select and size DERs and analytical optimization to schedule them. It further embeds Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate reliability as well as regression models for customer damage functions to monetize reliability. It provides least-cost microgrid configurations for utility customers who seek to reduce interruption and operating costs. Lastly, the model is used to explore the impact of such adoption on system-wide greenhouse gas emissions in California. Results indicate that there are, at present, co-benefits for emissions reductions when customers

  9. Human Reliability Analysis: session summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.E.

    1985-01-01

    The use of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) to identify and resolve human factors issues has significantly increased over the past two years. Today, utilities, research institutions, consulting firms, and the regulatory agency have found a common application of HRA tools and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The ''1985 IEEE Third Conference on Human Factors and Power Plants'' devoted three sessions to the discussion of these applications and a review of the insights so gained. This paper summarizes the three sessions and presents those common conclusions that were discussed during the meeting. The paper concludes that session participants supported the use of an adequately documented ''living PRA'' to address human factors issues in design and procedural changes, regulatory compliance, and training and that the techniques can produce cost effective qualitative results that are complementary to more classical human factors methods

  10. Fundamentals and applications of systems reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boesebeck, K.; Heuser, F.W.; Kotthoff, K.

    1976-01-01

    The lecture gives a survey on the application of methods of reliability analysis to assess the safety of nuclear power plants. Possible statements of reliability analysis in connection with specifications of the atomic licensing procedure are especially dealt with. Existing specifications of safety criteria are additionally discussed with the help of reliability analysis by the example of the reliability analysis of a reactor protection system. Beyond the limited application to single safety systems, the significance of reliability analysis for a closed risk concept is explained in the last part of the lecture. (orig./LH) [de

  11. Cost benefit justification of nuclear plant reliability improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sayed, M.A.H.; Abdelmonem, N.M.

    1985-01-01

    The design of the secondary steam loop of the nuclear power plant has a significant effect on the reliability of the plant. Moreover, the necessity to cool a reactor safely has increased the reliability demanded from the system. The rapidly rising construction costs and fuel prices in recent years have stimulated a great deal in optimizing the productivity of a nuclear power plant through reliability improvement of the secondary steamloop and the reactor cooling system. A method for evaluating the reliability of steam loop and cooling system of a nuclear power plant is presented. The method utilizes the cut-set technique. The developed method can be easily used to show to what extent the overall reliability of the nuclear plant is affected by the possible failures in the steam and cooling subsystem. A model for calculating the increase in the nuclear plant productivity resulting from a proposed improvement in the two subsystems reliability is discussed. The model takes into account the capital cost of spare parts for several components, replacement energy, operating and maintenance costs

  12. A taxonomy for human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beattie, J.D.; Iwasa-Madge, K.M.

    1984-01-01

    A human interaction taxonomy (classification scheme) was developed to facilitate human reliability analysis in a probabilistic safety evaluation of a nuclear power plant, being performed at Ontario Hydro. A human interaction occurs, by definition, when operators or maintainers manipulate, or respond to indication from, a plant component or system. The taxonomy aids the fault tree analyst by acting as a heuristic device. It helps define the range and type of human errors to be identified in the construction of fault trees, while keeping the identification by different analysts consistent. It decreases the workload associated with preliminary quantification of the large number of identified interactions by including a category called 'simple interactions'. Fault tree analysts quantify these according to a procedure developed by a team of human reliability specialists. The interactions which do not fit into this category are called 'complex' and are quantified by the human reliability team. The taxonomy is currently being used in fault tree construction in a probabilistic safety evaluation. As far as can be determined at this early stage, the potential benefits of consistency and completeness in identifying human interactions and streamlining the initial quantification are being realized

  13. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  14. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-01-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  15. Cost analysis of reliability investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, F.

    1981-01-01

    Taking Epsteins testing theory as a basis, premisses are formulated for the selection of cost-optimized reliability inspection plans. Using an example, the expected testing costs and inspection time periods of various inspection plan types, standardized on the basis of the exponential distribution, are compared. It can be shown that sequential reliability tests usually involve lower costs than failure or time-fixed tests. The most 'costly' test is to be expected with the inspection plan type NOt. (orig.) [de

  16. Reliability Analysis of a Two Dissimilar Unit Cold Standby System ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (2009) using linear first order differential equation evaluated the reliability and availability characteristics of two-dissimilar-unit cold standby system with three mode for which no cost benefit analysis was considered. El-said (1994) contributed on stochastic analysis of a two-dissimilar-unit standby redundant system.

  17. Reliability Analysis of Money Habitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgadillo, Lucy M.; Bushman, Brittani S.

    2015-01-01

    Use of the Money Habitudes exercise has gained popularity among various financial professionals. This article reports on the reliability of this resource. A survey administered to young adults at a western state university was conducted, and each Habitude or "domain" was analyzed using Cronbach's alpha procedures. Results showed all six…

  18. Power system reliability analysis using fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.

    2006-01-01

    The power system reliability analysis method is developed from the aspect of reliable delivery of electrical energy to customers. The method is developed based on the fault tree analysis, which is widely applied in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The method is adapted for the power system reliability analysis. The method is developed in a way that only the basic reliability parameters of the analysed power system are necessary as an input for the calculation of reliability indices of the system. The modeling and analysis was performed on an example power system consisting of eight substations. The results include the level of reliability of current power system configuration, the combinations of component failures resulting in a failed power delivery to loads, and the importance factors for components and subsystems. (author)

  19. Reliability analysis of software based safety functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-05-01

    The methods applicable in the reliability analysis of software based safety functions are described in the report. Although the safety functions also include other components, the main emphasis in the report is on the reliability analysis of software. The check list type qualitative reliability analysis methods, such as failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), are described, as well as the software fault tree analysis. The safety analysis based on the Petri nets is discussed. The most essential concepts and models of quantitative software reliability analysis are described. The most common software metrics and their combined use with software reliability models are discussed. The application of software reliability models in PSA is evaluated; it is observed that the recent software reliability models do not produce the estimates needed in PSA directly. As a result from the study some recommendations and conclusions are drawn. The need of formal methods in the analysis and development of software based systems, the applicability of qualitative reliability engineering methods in connection to PSA and the need to make more precise the requirements for software based systems and their analyses in the regulatory guides should be mentioned. (orig.). (46 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.)

  20. Reliability analysis of reactor pressure vessel intensity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Liangang; Lu Yongbo

    2012-01-01

    This paper performs the reliability analysis of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) with ANSYS. The analysis method include direct Monte Carlo Simulation method, Latin Hypercube Sampling, central composite design and Box-Behnken Matrix design. The RPV integrity reliability under given input condition is proposed. The result shows that the effects on the RPV base material reliability are internal press, allowable basic stress and elasticity modulus of base material in descending order, and the effects on the bolt reliability are allowable basic stress of bolt material, preload of bolt and internal press in descending order. (authors)

  1. Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Scarf Joints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Lund, Erik

    2012-01-01

    element analysis (FEA). For the reliability analysis a design equation is considered which is related to a deterministic code-based design equation where reliability is secured by partial safety factors together with characteristic values for the material properties and loads. The failure criteria......A probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded scarfed lap joints subjected to static loading is developed. It is representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to flapwise bending. The structural analysis is based on a three dimensional (3D) finite...... are formulated using a von Mises, a modified von Mises and a maximum stress failure criterion. The reliability level is estimated for the scarfed lap joint and this is compared with the target reliability level implicitly used in the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. A convergence study is performed to validate...

  2. Analysis of employee satisfaction with benefits

    OpenAIRE

    Málková, Eliška

    2013-01-01

    This bachelor thesis is focused on an issue of providing employee benefits. The first part describes the benefits from a theoretical point of view, here is also mentioned a research about the benefits and an impact of the economic crisis on providing the benefits. The second part is focused on describing the benefits of a particular company, KOMIX Inc., an analysis of an employee satisfaction with the benefits with using a questionnaire survey and suggestion of ways to improve the current sys...

  3. System Reliability Analysis Considering Correlation of Performances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Saekyeol; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Woochul [Mando Corporation, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-04-15

    Reliability analysis of a mechanical system has been developed in order to consider the uncertainties in the product design that may occur from the tolerance of design variables, uncertainties of noise, environmental factors, and material properties. In most of the previous studies, the reliability was calculated independently for each performance of the system. However, the conventional methods cannot consider the correlation between the performances of the system that may lead to a difference between the reliability of the entire system and the reliability of the individual performance. In this paper, the joint probability density function (PDF) of the performances is modeled using a copula which takes into account the correlation between performances of the system. The system reliability is proposed as the integral of joint PDF of performances and is compared with the individual reliability of each performance by mathematical examples and two-bar truss example.

  4. System Reliability Analysis Considering Correlation of Performances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Saekyeol; Lee, Tae Hee; Lim, Woochul

    2017-01-01

    Reliability analysis of a mechanical system has been developed in order to consider the uncertainties in the product design that may occur from the tolerance of design variables, uncertainties of noise, environmental factors, and material properties. In most of the previous studies, the reliability was calculated independently for each performance of the system. However, the conventional methods cannot consider the correlation between the performances of the system that may lead to a difference between the reliability of the entire system and the reliability of the individual performance. In this paper, the joint probability density function (PDF) of the performances is modeled using a copula which takes into account the correlation between performances of the system. The system reliability is proposed as the integral of joint PDF of performances and is compared with the individual reliability of each performance by mathematical examples and two-bar truss example.

  5. Reliability analysis using network simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engi, D.

    1985-01-01

    The models that can be used to provide estimates of the reliability of nuclear power systems operate at many different levels of sophistication. The least-sophisticated models treat failure processes that entail only time-independent phenomena (such as demand failure). More advanced models treat processes that also include time-dependent phenomena such as run failure and possibly repair. However, many of these dynamic models are deficient in some respects because they either disregard the time-dependent phenomena that cannot be expressed in closed-form analytic terms or because they treat these phenomena in quasi-static terms. The next level of modeling requires a dynamic approach that incorporates not only procedures for treating all significant time-dependent phenomena but also procedures for treating these phenomena when they are conditionally linked or characterized by arbitrarily selected probability distributions. The level of sophistication that is required is provided by a dynamic, Monte Carlo modeling approach. A computer code that uses a dynamic, Monte Carlo modeling approach is Q-GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique - with Queueing), and the present study had demonstrated the feasibility of using Q-GERT for modeling time-dependent, unconditionally and conditionally linked phenomena that are characterized by arbitrarily selected probability distributions

  6. Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The purpose of this project is to extend current ground-based Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool to more effectively...

  7. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  8. Reliability analysis of stiff versus flexible piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    The overall objective of this research project is to develop a technical basis for flexible piping designs which will improve piping reliability and minimize the use of pipe supports, snubbers, and pipe whip restraints. The current study was conducted to establish the necessary groundwork based on the piping reliability analysis. A confirmatory piping reliability assessment indicated that removing rigid supports and snubbers tends to either improve or affect very little the piping reliability. The authors then investigated a couple of changes to be implemented in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.61 and RG 1.122 aimed at more flexible piping design. They concluded that these changes substantially reduce calculated piping responses and allow piping redesigns with significant reduction in number of supports and snubbers without violating ASME code requirements. Furthermore, the more flexible piping redesigns are capable of exhibiting reliability levels equal to or higher than the original stiffer design. An investigation of the malfunction of pipe whip restraints confirmed that the malfunction introduced higher thermal stresses and tended to reduce the overall piping reliability. Finally, support and component reliabilities were evaluated based on available fragility data. Results indicated that the support reliability usually exhibits a moderate decrease as the piping flexibility increases. Most on-line pumps and valves showed an insignificant reduction in reliability for a more flexible piping design

  9. Cost benefit analysis cost effectiveness analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1986-09-01

    The comparison of various protection options in order to determine which is the best compromise between cost of protection and residual risk is the purpose of the ALARA procedure. The use of decision-aiding techniques is valuable as an aid to selection procedures. The purpose of this study is to introduce two rather simple and well known decision aiding techniques: the cost-effectiveness analysis and the cost-benefit analysis. These two techniques are relevant for the great part of ALARA decisions which need the use of a quantitative technique. The study is based on an hypothetical case of 10 protection options. Four methods are applied to the data

  10. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  11. Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  12. Reliability analysis techniques for the design engineer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corran, E.R.; Witt, H.H.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a fault tree analysis package that eliminates most of the housekeeping tasks involved in proceeding from the initial construction of a fault tree to the final stage of presenting a reliability analysis in a safety report. It is suitable for designers with relatively little training in reliability analysis and computer operation. Users can rapidly investigate the reliability implications of various options at the design stage and evolve a system which meets specified reliability objectives. Later independent review is thus unlikely to reveal major shortcomings necessitating modification and project delays. The package operates interactively, allowing the user to concentrate on the creative task of developing the system fault tree, which may be modified and displayed graphically. For preliminary analysis, system data can be derived automatically from a generic data bank. As the analysis proceeds, improved estimates of critical failure rates and test and maintenance schedules can be inserted. The technique is applied to the reliability analysis of the recently upgraded HIFAR Containment Isolation System. (author)

  13. Reliability analysis of Angra I safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Soto, J.B.; Maciel, C.C.; Gibelli, S.M.O.; Fleming, P.V.; Arrieta, L.A.

    1980-07-01

    An extensive reliability analysis of some safety systems of Angra I, are presented. The fault tree technique, which has been successfully used in most reliability studies of nuclear safety systems performed to date is employed. Results of a quantitative determination of the unvailability of the accumulator and the containment spray injection systems are presented. These results are also compared to those reported in WASH-1400. (E.G.) [pt

  14. Swimming pool reactor reliability and safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Zhaohuan

    1997-01-01

    A reliability and safety analysis of Swimming Pool Reactor in China Institute of Atomic Energy is done by use of event/fault tree technique. The paper briefly describes the analysis model, analysis code and main results. Meanwhile it also describes the impact of unassigned operation status on safety, the estimation of effectiveness of defense tactics in maintenance against common cause failure, the effectiveness of recovering actions on the system reliability, the comparison of occurrence frequencies of the core damage by use of generic and specific data

  15. Preliminary Reliability and Validity of an Exercise Benefits and Barriers for Stroke Prevention Scale in an African American Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aycock, Dawn M; Clark, Patricia C

    2015-01-01

    African Americans are at heightened risk of first stroke, and regular exercise can reduce stroke risk. Benefits and barriers to exercise subscales from 2 instruments were combined to create the Exercise Benefits and Barriers for Stroke Prevention (EBBSP) scale. Reliability and validity of the EBBSP scale were examined in a nonrandom sample of 66 African Americans who were primarily female, average age 43.3 ± 9.4 years, and high school graduates. Both subscales had adequate internal consistency reliability. Factor analysis revealed two factors for each subscale. More benefits and fewer perceived barriers were significantly related to current exercise and future intentions to exercise. The EBBSP scale may be useful in research focused on understanding, predicting, and promoting exercise for stroke prevention in adults.

  16. Reliability analysis techniques for the design engineer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corran, E.R.; Witt, H.H.

    1980-01-01

    A fault tree analysis package is described that eliminates most of the housekeeping tasks involved in proceeding from the initial construction of a fault tree to the final stage of presenting a reliability analysis in a safety report. It is suitable for designers with relatively little training in reliability analysis and computer operation. Users can rapidly investigate the reliability implications of various options at the design stage, and evolve a system which meets specified reliability objectives. Later independent review is thus unlikely to reveal major shortcomings necessitating modification and projects delays. The package operates interactively allowing the user to concentrate on the creative task of developing the system fault tree, which may be modified and displayed graphically. For preliminary analysis system data can be derived automatically from a generic data bank. As the analysis procedes improved estimates of critical failure rates and test and maintenance schedules can be inserted. The computations are standard, - identification of minimal cut-sets, estimation of reliability parameters, and ranking of the effect of the individual component failure modes and system failure modes on these parameters. The user can vary the fault trees and data on-line, and print selected data for preferred systems in a form suitable for inclusion in safety reports. A case history is given - that of HIFAR containment isolation system. (author)

  17. Ethics and Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arler, Finn

    The purpose of this research report is threefold. Firstly, the author traces the origins and justification of cost-benefit analysis in moral and political philosophy. Secondly, he explain some of the basic features of cost-benefit analysis as a planning tool in a step-bystep presentation. Thirdly......, he presents and discusses some of the main ethical difficulties related to the use of cost-benefit analysis as a planning tool....

  18. Analysis of employee benefits in company

    OpenAIRE

    Burda, Tomáš

    2011-01-01

    The main subject of Bachelor's Thesis called "Analysis of employee benefits in company" is to analyze system of employee benefits used in company Saint-Gobain Construction Products a.s. The theoretical part focuses on the meaning of employee benefits, their categorization, terms of tax legislation a trends. In the practical section of the work, the current state of employee benefits in the firm is discussed and reviewed. A survey was conducted to investigate the satisfaction of employees towa...

  19. Quantitative characterization of the reliability of simplex buses and stars to compare their benefits in fieldbuses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barranco, Manuel; Proenza, Julián; Almeida, Luís

    2015-01-01

    Fieldbuses targeted to highly dependable distributed embedded systems are shifting from bus to star topologies. Surprisingly, despite the efforts into this direction, engineers lack of analyses that quantitatively characterize the system reliability achievable by buses and stars. Thus, to guide engineers in developing adequate bus and star fieldbuses, this work models, quantifies and compares the system reliability provided by simplex buses and stars for the case of the Controller Area Network (CAN). It clarifies how relevant dependability-related aspects affect reliability, refuting some intuitive ideas, and revealing some previously unknown bus and star benefits. - Highlights: • SANs models that quantify the reliability of simplex buses/stars in fieldbuses. • Models cover system relevant dependability-related features abstracted in the literature. • Results refute intuitive ideas about buses and stars and show some unexpected effects. • Models and results can guide the design of reliable simplex bus/stars fieldbuses

  20. Reliability Analysis of Elasto-Plastic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1984-01-01

    . Failure of this type of system is defined either as formation of a mechanism or by failure of a prescribed number of elements. In the first case failure is independent of the order in which the elements fail, but this is not so by the second definition. The reliability analysis consists of two parts...... are described and the two definitions of failure can be used by the first formulation, but only the failure definition based on formation of a mechanism by the second formulation. The second part of the reliability analysis is an estimate of the failure probability for the structure on the basis...

  1. Reliability analysis and assessment of structural systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, J.T.P.; Anderson, C.A.

    1977-01-01

    The study of structural reliability deals with the probability of having satisfactory performance of the structure under consideration within any specific time period. To pursue this study, it is necessary to apply available knowledge and methodology in structural analysis (including dynamics) and design, behavior of materials and structures, experimental mechanics, and the theory of probability and statistics. In addition, various severe loading phenomena such as strong motion earthquakes and wind storms are important considerations. For three decades now, much work has been done on reliability analysis of structures, and during this past decade, certain so-called 'Level I' reliability-based design codes have been proposed and are in various stages of implementation. These contributions will be critically reviewed and summarized in this paper. Because of the undesirable consequences resulting from the failure of nuclear structures, it is important and desirable to consider the structural reliability in the analysis and design of these structures. Moreover, after these nuclear structures are constructed, it is desirable for engineers to be able to assess the structural reliability periodically as well as immediately following the occurrence of severe loading conditions such as a strong-motion earthquake. During this past decade, increasing use has been made of techniques of system identification in structural engineering. On the basis of non-destructive test results, various methods have been developed to obtain an adequate mathematical model (such as the equations of motion with more realistic parameters) to represent the structural system

  2. Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

    2006-12-01

    Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

  3. Reliability Analysis of a Steel Frame

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sýkora

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A steel frame with haunches is designed according to Eurocodes. The frame is exposed to self-weight, snow, and wind actions. Lateral-torsional buckling appears to represent the most critical criterion, which is considered as a basis for the limit state function. In the reliability analysis, the probabilistic models proposed by the Joint Committee for Structural Safety (JCSS are used for basic variables. The uncertainty model coefficients take into account the inaccuracy of the resistance model for the haunched girder and the inaccuracy of the action effect model. The time invariant reliability analysis is based on Turkstra's rule for combinations of snow and wind actions. The time variant analysis describes snow and wind actions by jump processes with intermittencies. Assuming a 50-year lifetime, the obtained values of the reliability index b vary within the range from 3.95 up to 5.56. The cross-profile IPE 330 designed according to Eurocodes seems to be adequate. It appears that the time invariant reliability analysis based on Turkstra's rule provides considerably lower values of b than those obtained by the time variant analysis.

  4. Representative Sampling for reliable data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars; Esbensen, Kim Harry

    2005-01-01

    regime in order to secure the necessary reliability of: samples (which must be representative, from the primary sampling onwards), analysis (which will not mean anything outside the miniscule analytical volume without representativity ruling all mass reductions involved, also in the laboratory) and data...

  5. Reliability analysis of prestressed concrete containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, J.; Zhao, Y.; Sun, J.

    1993-01-01

    The reliability analysis of prestressed concrete containment structures subjected to combinations of static and dynamic loads with consideration of uncertainties of structural and load parameters is presented. Limit state probabilities for given parameters are calculated using the procedure developed at BNL, while that with consideration of parameter uncertainties are calculated by a fast integration for time variant structural reliability. The limit state surface of the prestressed concrete containment is constructed directly incorporating the prestress. The sensitivities of the Choleskey decomposition matrix and the natural vibration character are calculated by simplified procedures. (author)

  6. Prime implicants in dynamic reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, Tero

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an improved definition of a prime implicant for the needs of dynamic reliability analysis. Reliability analyses often aim to identify minimal cut sets or prime implicants, which are minimal conditions that cause an undesired top event, such as a system's failure. Dynamic reliability analysis methods take the time-dependent behaviour of a system into account. This means that the state of a component can change in the analysed time frame and prime implicants can include the failure of a component at different time points. There can also be dynamic constraints on a component's behaviour. For example, a component can be non-repairable in the given time frame. If a non-repairable component needs to be failed at a certain time point to cause the top event, we consider that the condition that it is failed at the latest possible time point is minimal, and the condition in which it fails earlier non-minimal. The traditional definition of a prime implicant does not account for this type of time-related minimality. In this paper, a new definition is introduced and illustrated using a dynamic flowgraph methodology model. - Highlights: • A new definition of a prime implicant is developed for dynamic reliability analysis. • The new definition takes time-related minimality into account. • The new definition is needed in dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Results can be represented by a smaller number of prime implicants.

  7. Reliability analysis of reactor inspection robot(RIROB)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Kim, J. H.; Lee, J. C.; Choi, Y. R.; Moon, S. S.

    2002-05-01

    This report describes the method and the result of the reliability analysis of RIROB developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. There are many classic techniques and models for the reliability analysis. These techniques and models have been used widely and approved in other industries such as aviation and nuclear industry. Though these techniques and models have been approved in real fields they are still insufficient for the complicated systems such RIROB which are composed of computer, networks, electronic parts, mechanical parts, and software. Particularly the application of these analysis techniques to digital and software parts of complicated systems is immature at this time thus expert judgement plays important role in evaluating the reliability of the systems at these days. In this report we proposed a method which combines diverse evidences relevant to the reliability to evaluate the reliability of complicated systems such as RIROB. The proposed method combines diverse evidences and performs inference in formal and in quantitative way by using the benefits of Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN)

  8. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  9. Human reliability analysis of control room operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo Victor R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    Human reliability is the probability that a person correctly performs some system required action in a required time period and performs no extraneous action that can degrade the system Human reliability analysis (HRA) is the analysis, prediction and evaluation of work-oriented human performance using some indices as human error likelihood and probability of task accomplishment. Significant progress has been made in the HRA field during the last years, mainly in nuclear area. Some first-generation HRA methods were developed, as THERP (Technique for human error rate prediction). Now, an array of called second-generation methods are emerging as alternatives, for instance ATHEANA (A Technique for human event analysis). The ergonomics approach has as tool the ergonomic work analysis. It focus on the study of operator's activities in physical and mental form, considering at the same time the observed characteristics of operator and the elements of the work environment as they are presented to and perceived by the operators. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology to analyze the human reliability of the operators of industrial plant control room, using a framework that includes the approach used by ATHEANA, THERP and the work ergonomics analysis. (author)

  10. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  11. Benefit analysis of proposed information systems

    OpenAIRE

    Besore, Mark H.

    1991-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis reviewed two different approaches to benefit analysis, benefit comparison and user satisfaction, that could be applied to the evaluation of proposed information systems which are under consideration for acquisition by the federal government. Currently the General Services Administration only recommends that present value analysis methods be used in the analysis of alternatives even though the GSA specifies...

  12. Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    2010-01-01

    The future use of Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit (LCCB) analysis is discussed in this paper. A more complete analysis including not only the traditional factors and user costs, but also factors which are difficult to include in the analysis is needed in the future.......The future use of Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit (LCCB) analysis is discussed in this paper. A more complete analysis including not only the traditional factors and user costs, but also factors which are difficult to include in the analysis is needed in the future....

  13. Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemaitre, Paul

    2014-01-01

    This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)

  14. Human reliability analysis using event trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heslinga, G.

    1983-01-01

    The shut-down procedure of a technologically complex installation as a nuclear power plant consists of a lot of human actions, some of which have to be performed several times. The procedure is regarded as a chain of modules of specific actions, some of which are analyzed separately. The analysis is carried out by making a Human Reliability Analysis event tree (HRA event tree) of each action, breaking down each action into small elementary steps. The application of event trees in human reliability analysis implies more difficulties than in the case of technical systems where event trees were mainly used until now. The most important reason is that the operator is able to recover a wrong performance; memory influences play a significant role. In this study these difficulties are dealt with theoretically. The following conclusions can be drawn: (1) in principle event trees may be used in human reliability analysis; (2) although in practice the operator will recover his fault partly, theoretically this can be described as starting the whole event tree again; (3) compact formulas have been derived, by which the probability of reaching a specific failure consequence on passing through the HRA event tree after several times of recovery is to be calculated. (orig.)

  15. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  16. Reliability analysis in interdependent smart grid systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Hao; Kan, Zhe; Zhao, Dandan; Han, Jianmin; Lu, Jianfeng; Hu, Zhaolong

    2018-06-01

    Complex network theory is a useful way to study many real complex systems. In this paper, a reliability analysis model based on complex network theory is introduced in interdependent smart grid systems. In this paper, we focus on understanding the structure of smart grid systems and studying the underlying network model, their interactions, and relationships and how cascading failures occur in the interdependent smart grid systems. We propose a practical model for interdependent smart grid systems using complex theory. Besides, based on percolation theory, we also study the effect of cascading failures effect and reveal detailed mathematical analysis of failure propagation in such systems. We analyze the reliability of our proposed model caused by random attacks or failures by calculating the size of giant functioning components in interdependent smart grid systems. Our simulation results also show that there exists a threshold for the proportion of faulty nodes, beyond which the smart grid systems collapse. Also we determine the critical values for different system parameters. In this way, the reliability analysis model based on complex network theory can be effectively utilized for anti-attack and protection purposes in interdependent smart grid systems.

  17. Medicares Hospice Benefit - Analysis of Utilization and..

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Descriptive analyses reported in Medicares Hospice Benefit - Analysis of Utilization and Resource Use, published in Volume 4, Issue 3 of the Medicare and Medicaid...

  18. Comprehensive proficiency-based inanimate training for robotic surgery: reliability, feasibility, and educational benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, Nabeel A; Dulan, Genevieve; Hogg, Deborah C; Rege, Robert V; Powers, Cathryn E; Tesfay, Seifu T; Hynan, Linda S; Scott, Daniel J

    2012-10-01

    We previously developed a comprehensive proficiency-based robotic training curriculum demonstrating construct, content, and face validity. This study aimed to assess reliability, feasibility, and educational benefit associated with curricular implementation. Over an 11-month period, 55 residents, fellows, and faculty (robotic novices) from general surgery, urology, and gynecology were enrolled in a 2-month curriculum: online didactics, half-day hands-on tutorial, and self-practice using nine inanimate exercises. Each trainee completed a questionnaire and performed a single proctored repetition of each task before (pretest) and after (post-test) training. Tasks were scored for time and errors using modified FLS metrics. For inter-rater reliability (IRR), three trainees were scored by two raters and analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Data from eight experts were analyzed using ICC and Cronbach's α to determine test-retest reliability and internal consistency, respectively. Educational benefit was assessed by comparing baseline (pretest) and final (post-test) trainee performance; comparisons used Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Of the 55 trainees that pretested, 53 (96 %) completed all curricular components in 9-17 h and reached proficiency after completing an average of 72 ± 28 repetitions over 5 ± 1 h. Trainees indicated minimal prior robotic experience and "poor comfort" with robotic skills at baseline (1.8 ± 0.9) compared to final testing (3.1 ± 0.8, p reliability was 0.91 (p training for all nine tasks and according to composite scores (548 ± 176 vs. 914 ± 81, p reliability measures, demonstrated feasibility for a large cohort of trainees, and yielded significant educational benefit. Further studies and adoption of this curriculum are encouraged.

  19. Cost-benefit analysis: reality or illusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tait, G.W.C.

    1980-01-01

    The problems encountered in the application of cost-benefit analysis to the setting of acceptable radiation exposure levels are discussed, in particular the difficulty of assigning a monetary value to human life or disability, and the fact that the customary optimization of cost-benefit is not consistent with the ICRP dose limitation system, especially the ALARA principle. It is concluded that the present ICRP recommendations should remain the basis of exposure control while a carefully limited use of cost-benefit analysis may be helpful in some cases. (U.K.)

  20. Qualitative analysis in reliability and safety studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, R.B.; Burdick, G.R.

    1976-01-01

    The qualitative evaluation of system logic models is described as it pertains to assessing the reliability and safety characteristics of nuclear systems. Qualitative analysis of system logic models, i.e., models couched in an event (Boolean) algebra, is defined, and the advantages inherent in qualitative analysis are explained. Certain qualitative procedures that were developed as a part of fault-tree analysis are presented for illustration. Five fault-tree analysis computer-programs that contain a qualitative procedure for determining minimal cut sets are surveyed. For each program the minimal cut-set algorithm and limitations on its use are described. The recently developed common-cause analysis for studying the effect of common-causes of failure on system behavior is explained. This qualitative procedure does not require altering the fault tree, but does use minimal cut sets from the fault tree as part of its input. The method is applied using two different computer programs. 25 refs

  1. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Enrique; Minguez, Roberto; Castillo, Carmen

    2008-01-01

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods

  2. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es

    2008-12-15

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.

  3. The quantitative failure of human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1995-07-01

    This philosophical treatise argues the merits of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the context of the nuclear power industry. Actually, the author attacks historic and current HRA as having failed in informing policy makers who make decisions based on risk that humans contribute to systems performance. He argues for an HRA based on Bayesian (fact-based) inferential statistics, which advocates a systems analysis process that employs cogent heuristics when using opinion, and tempers itself with a rational debate over the weight given subjective and empirical probabilities.

  4. Infusing Reliability Techniques into Software Safety Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ying

    2015-01-01

    Software safety analysis for a large software intensive system is always a challenge. Software safety practitioners need to ensure that software related hazards are completely identified, controlled, and tracked. This paper discusses in detail how to incorporate the traditional reliability techniques into the entire software safety analysis process. In addition, this paper addresses how information can be effectively shared between the various practitioners involved in the software safety analyses. The author has successfully applied the approach to several aerospace applications. Examples are provided to illustrate the key steps of the proposed approach.

  5. Subset simulation for structural reliability sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Shufang; Lu Zhenzhou; Qiao Hongwei

    2009-01-01

    Based on two procedures for efficiently generating conditional samples, i.e. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and importance sampling (IS), two reliability sensitivity (RS) algorithms are presented. On the basis of reliability analysis of Subset simulation (Subsim), the RS of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable is transformed as a set of RS of conditional failure probabilities with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable. By use of the conditional samples generated by MCMC simulation and IS, procedures are established to estimate the RS of the conditional failure probabilities. The formulae of the RS estimator, its variance and its coefficient of variation are derived in detail. The results of the illustrations show high efficiency and high precision of the presented algorithms, and it is suitable for highly nonlinear limit state equation and structural system with single and multiple failure modes

  6. Development of cost-benefit analysis system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Mishima, Tetsuya; Yuyama, Tomonori; Suzuki, Atsushi

    2001-01-01

    In order to promote the FDR development, it is necessary to see various benefits brought by introduction of FBR from multiple perspectives and have a good grasp of such benefits quantitatively and an adequate R and D investment scale which corresponds with them. In this study, the structured prototype in the previous study was improved to be able to perform cost-benefit analysis. An example of improvement made in the system is addition of subroutine used for comparison between new energy and benefits brought by introduction of FBR with special emphasis on addition of logic for analyzing externality about the new energy. Other improvement examples are modification of the Conventional Year Expense Ratio method of power generation cost to Average Durable Year Cost method, addition of database function and turning input data into database, and reviewing idea on cost by the type of waste material and price of uranium. The cost-benefit analysis system was also restructured utilizing Microsoft ACCESS so that it should have a data base function. As the result of the improvement mentioned above, we expect that the improved cost-benefit analysis system will have higher generality than the system before; therefore, great deal of benefits brought by application of the system in the future is expected. (author)

  7. Application of Metric-based Software Reliability Analysis to Example Software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Smidts, Carol

    2008-07-01

    The software reliability of TELLERFAST ATM software is analyzed by using two metric-based software reliability analysis methods, a state transition diagram-based method and a test coverage-based method. The procedures for the software reliability analysis by using the two methods and the analysis results are provided in this report. It is found that the two methods have a relation of complementary cooperation, and therefore further researches on combining the two methods to reflect the benefit of the complementary cooperative effect to the software reliability analysis are recommended

  8. System reliability analysis with natural language and expert's subjectivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onisawa, T.

    1996-01-01

    This paper introduces natural language expressions and expert's subjectivity to system reliability analysis. To this end, this paper defines a subjective measure of reliability and presents the method of the system reliability analysis using the measure. The subjective measure of reliability corresponds to natural language expressions of reliability estimation, which is represented by a fuzzy set defined on [0,1]. The presented method deals with the dependence among subsystems and employs parametrized operations of subjective measures of reliability which can reflect expert 's subjectivity towards the analyzed system. The analysis results are also expressed by linguistic terms. Finally this paper gives an example of the system reliability analysis by the presented method

  9. Advanced Interval Management: A Benefit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timer, Sebastian; Peters, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This document is the final report for the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)- sponsored task order 'Possible Benefits for Advanced Interval Management Operations.' Under this research project, Architecture Technology Corporation performed an analysis to determine the maximum potential benefit to be gained if specific Advanced Interval Management (AIM) operations were implemented in the National Airspace System (NAS). The motivation for this research is to guide NASA decision-making on which Interval Management (IM) applications offer the most potential benefit and warrant further research.

  10. Reliability analysis of containment isolation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelto, P.J.; Counts, C.A.

    1984-06-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is reviewing available information on containment systems design, operating experience, and related research as part of a project being conducted by the Division of Systems Integration, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The basic objective of this work is to collect and consolidate data relevant to assessing the functional performance of containment isolation systems and to use this data to the extent possible to characterize containment isolation system reliability for selected reference designs. This paper summarizes the results from initial efforts which focused on collection of data from available documents and briefly describes detailed review and analysis efforts which commenced recently. 5 references

  11. Reliability analysis of containment isolation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelto, P.J.; Ames, K.R.; Gallucci, R.H.

    1985-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Reliability Analysis of Containment Isolation System Project. Work was performed in five basic areas: design review, operating experience review, related research review, generic analysis and plant specific analysis. Licensee Event Reports (LERs) and Integrated Leak Rate Test (ILRT) reports provided the major sources of containment performance information used in this study. Data extracted from LERs were assembled into a computer data base. Qualitative and quantitative information developed for containment performance under normal operating conditions and design basis accidents indicate that there is room for improvement. A rough estimate of overall containment unavailability for relatively small leaks which violate plant technical specifications is 0.3. An estimate of containment unavailability due to large leakage events is in the range of 0.001 to 0.01. These estimates are dependent on several assumptions (particularly on event duration times) which are documented in the report

  12. R&D program benefits estimation: DOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2006-12-04

    The overall mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) is to lead national efforts to modernize the electric grid, enhance the security and reliability of the energy infrastructure, and facilitate recovery from disruptions to the energy supply. In support of this mission, OE conducts a portfolio of research and development (R&D) activities to advance technologies to enhance electric power delivery. Multiple benefits are anticipated to result from the deployment of these technologies, including higher quality and more reliable power, energy savings, and lower cost electricity. In addition, OE engages State and local government decision-makers and the private sector to address issues related to the reliability and security of the grid, including responding to national emergencies that affect energy delivery. The OE R&D activities are comprised of four R&D lines: High Temperature Superconductivity (HTS), Visualization and Controls (V&C), Energy Storage and Power Electronics (ES&PE), and Distributed Systems Integration (DSI).

  13. Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2005-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probability of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues

  14. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  15. Reliability engineering analysis of ATLAS data reprocessing campaigns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaniachine, A; Golubkov, D; Karpenko, D

    2014-01-01

    During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability Engineering approach supported continuous improvements in data reprocessing throughput during LHC data taking. The throughput doubled in 2011 vs. 2010 reprocessing, then quadrupled in 2012 vs. 2011 reprocessing. We present the Reliability Engineering analysis of ATLAS data reprocessing campaigns providing the foundation needed to scale up the Big Data processing technologies beyond the petascale.

  16. Diakoptical reliability analysis of transistorized systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontoleon, J.M.; Lynn, J.W.; Green, A.E.

    1975-01-01

    Limitations both on high-speed core availability and computation time required for assessing the reliability of large-sized and complex electronic systems, such as used for the protection of nuclear reactors, are very serious restrictions which continuously confront the reliability analyst. Diakoptic methods simplify the solution of the electrical-network problem by subdividing a given network into a number of independent subnetworks and then interconnecting the solutions of these smaller parts by a systematic process involving transformations based on connection-matrix elements associated with the interconnecting links. However, the interconnection process is very complicated and it may be used only if the original system has been cut in such a manner that a relation can be established between the constraints appearing at both sides of the cut. Also, in dealing with transistorized systems, one of the difficulties encountered is that of modelling adequately their performance under various operating conditions, since their parameters are strongly affected by the imposed voltage and current levels. In this paper a new interconnection approach is presented which may be of use in the reliability analysis of large-sized transistorized systems. This is based on the partial optimization of the subdivisions of the torn network as well as on the optimization of the torn paths. The solution of the subdivisions is based on the principles of algebraic topology, with an algebraic structure relating the physical variables in a topological structure which defines the interconnection of the discrete elements. Transistors, and other nonlinear devices, are modelled using their actual characteristics, under normal and abnormal operating conditions. Use of so-called k factors is made to facilitate accounting for use of electrical stresses. The approach is demonstrated by way of an example. (author)

  17. Reliability Analysis Techniques for Communication Networks in Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, T. J.; Jang, S. C.; Kang, H. G.; Kim, M. C.; Eom, H. S.; Lee, H. J.

    2006-09-01

    The objectives of this project is to investigate and study existing reliability analysis techniques for communication networks in order to develop reliability analysis models for nuclear power plant's safety-critical networks. It is necessary to make a comprehensive survey of current methodologies for communication network reliability. Major outputs of this study are design characteristics of safety-critical communication networks, efficient algorithms for quantifying reliability of communication networks, and preliminary models for assessing reliability of safety-critical communication networks

  18. Stochastic reliability analysis using Fokker Planck equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Rami Reddy, G.; Srividya, A.; Verma, A.K.

    2011-01-01

    The Fokker-Planck equation describes the time evolution of the probability density function of the velocity of a particle, and can be generalized to other observables as well. It is also known as the Kolmogorov forward equation (diffusion). Hence, for any process, which evolves with time, the probability density function as a function of time can be represented with Fokker-Planck equation. In stochastic reliability analysis one is more interested in finding out the reliability or failure probability of the components or structures as a function of time rather than instantaneous failure probabilities. In this analysis the variables are represented with random processes instead of random variables. A random processes can be either stationary or non stationary. If the random process is stationary then the failure probability doesn't change with time where as in the case of non stationary processes the failure probability changes with time. In the present paper Fokker Planck equations have been used to find out the probability density function of the non stationary random processes. In this paper a flow chart has been provided which describes step by step process for carrying out stochastic reliability analysis using Fokker-Planck equations. As a first step one has to identify the failure function as a function of random processes. Then one has to solve the Fokker-Planck equation for each random process. In this paper the Fokker-Planck equation has been solved by using Finite difference method. As a result one gets the probability density values of the random process in the sample space as well as time space. Later at each time step appropriate probability distribution has to be identified based on the available probability density values. For checking the better fitness of the data Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of fit test has been performed. In this way one can find out the distribution of the random process at each time step. Once one has the probability distribution

  19. Structural Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiyu Jiang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a detailed review of the state-of-the-art research activities on structural reliability analysis of wind turbines between the 1990s and 2017. We describe the reliability methods including the first- and second-order reliability methods and the simulation reliability methods and show the procedure for and application areas of structural reliability analysis of wind turbines. Further, we critically review the various structural reliability studies on rotor blades, bottom-fixed support structures, floating systems and mechanical and electrical components. Finally, future applications of structural reliability methods to wind turbine designs are discussed.

  20. Research review and development trends of human reliability analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Pengcheng; Chen Guohua; Zhang Li; Dai Licao

    2011-01-01

    Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are reviewed. The theoretical basis of human reliability analysis, human error mechanism, the key elements of HRA methods as well as the existing HRA methods are respectively introduced and assessed. Their shortcomings,the current research hotspot and difficult problems are identified. Finally, it takes a close look at the trends of human reliability analysis methods. (authors)

  1. Reliability Analysis of Tubular Joints in Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1987-01-01

    Reliability analysis of single tubular joints and offshore platforms with tubular joints is" presented. The failure modes considered are yielding, punching, buckling and fatigue failure. Element reliability as well as systems reliability approaches are used and illustrated by several examples....... Finally, optimal design of tubular.joints with reliability constraints is discussed and illustrated by an example....

  2. Human Reliability Analysis For Computerized Procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald L.; Gertman, David I.; Le Blanc, Katya

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures in nuclear power plant control rooms. It is beyond the scope of this paper to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper provides a review of HRA as applied to traditional paper-based procedures, followed by a discussion of what specific factors should additionally be considered in HRAs for computerized procedures. Performance shaping factors and failure modes unique to computerized procedures are highlighted. Since there is no definitive guide to HRA for paper-based procedures, this paper also serves to clarify the existing guidance on paper-based procedures before delving into the unique aspects of computerized procedures.

  3. Reliability Analysis of Structural Timber Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hoffmeyer, P.

    2000-01-01

    Structural systems like timber trussed rafters and roof elements made of timber can be expected to have some degree of redundancy and nonlinear/plastic behaviour when the loading consists of for example snow or imposed load. In this paper this system effect is modelled and the statistic...... of variation. In the paper a stochastic model is described for the strength of a single piece of timber taking into account the stochastic variation of the strength and stiffness with length. Also stochastic models for different types of loads are formulated. First, simple representative systems with different...... types of redundancy and non-linearity are considered. The statistical characteristics of the load bearing capacity are determined by reliability analysis. Next, more complex systems are considered modelling the mechanical behaviour of timber roof elements I stressed skin panels made of timber. Using...

  4. Human reliability analysis of dependent events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swain, A.D.; Guttmann, H.E.

    1977-01-01

    In the human reliability analysis in WASH-1400, the continuous variable of degree of interaction among human events was approximated by selecting four points on this continuum to represent the entire continuum. The four points selected were identified as zero coupling (i.e., zero dependence), complete coupling (i.e., complete dependence), and two intermediate points--loose coupling (a moderate level of dependence) and tight coupling (a high level of dependence). The paper expands the WASH-1400 treatment of common mode failure due to the interaction of human activities. Mathematical expressions for the above four levels of dependence are derived for parallel and series systems. The psychological meaning of each level of dependence is illustrated by examples, with probability tree diagrams to illustrate the use of conditional probabilities resulting from the interaction of human actions in nuclear power plant tasks

  5. Reliability analysis of steel-containment strength

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greimann, L.G.; Fanous, F.; Wold-Tinsae, A.; Ketalaar, D.; Lin, T.; Bluhm, D.

    1982-06-01

    A best estimate and uncertainty assessment of the resistance of the St. Lucie, Cherokee, Perry, WPPSS and Browns Ferry containment vessels was performed. The Monte Carlo simulation technique and second moment approach were compared as a means of calculating the probability distribution of the containment resistance. A uniform static internal pressure was used and strain ductility was taken as the failure criterion. Approximate methods were developed and calibrated with finite element analysis. Both approximate and finite element analyses were performed on the axisymmetric containment structure. An uncertainty assessment of the containment strength was then performed by the second moment reliability method. Based upon the approximate methods, the cumulative distribution for the resistance of each of the five containments (shell modes only) is presented

  6. Standardizing the practice of human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallbert, B.P.

    1993-01-01

    The practice of human reliability analysis (HRA) within the nuclear industry varies greatly in terms of posited mechanisms that shape human performance, methods of characterizing and analytically modeling human behavior, and the techniques that are employed to estimate the frequency with which human error occurs. This variation has been a source of contention among HRA practitioners regarding the validity of results obtained from different HRA methods. It has also resulted in attempts to develop standard methods and procedures for conducting HRAs. For many of the same reasons, the practice of HRA has not been standardized or has been standardized only to the extent that individual analysts have developed heuristics and consistent approaches in their practice of HRA. From the standpoint of consumers and regulators, this has resulted in a lack of clear acceptance criteria for the assumptions, modeling, and quantification of human errors in probabilistic risk assessments

  7. A reliability analysis tool for SpaceWire network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qiang; Zhu, Longjiang; Fei, Haidong; Wang, Xingyou

    2017-04-01

    A SpaceWire is a standard for on-board satellite networks as the basis for future data-handling architectures. It is becoming more and more popular in space applications due to its technical advantages, including reliability, low power and fault protection, etc. High reliability is the vital issue for spacecraft. Therefore, it is very important to analyze and improve the reliability performance of the SpaceWire network. This paper deals with the problem of reliability modeling and analysis with SpaceWire network. According to the function division of distributed network, a reliability analysis method based on a task is proposed, the reliability analysis of every task can lead to the system reliability matrix, the reliability result of the network system can be deduced by integrating these entire reliability indexes in the matrix. With the method, we develop a reliability analysis tool for SpaceWire Network based on VC, where the computation schemes for reliability matrix and the multi-path-task reliability are also implemented. By using this tool, we analyze several cases on typical architectures. And the analytic results indicate that redundancy architecture has better reliability performance than basic one. In practical, the dual redundancy scheme has been adopted for some key unit, to improve the reliability index of the system or task. Finally, this reliability analysis tool will has a directive influence on both task division and topology selection in the phase of SpaceWire network system design.

  8. Human Reliability Analysis for Small Modular Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2012-06-01

    Because no human reliability analysis (HRA) method was specifically developed for small modular reactors (SMRs), the application of any current HRA method to SMRs represents tradeoffs. A first- generation HRA method like THERP provides clearly defined activity types, but these activity types do not map to the human-system interface or concept of operations confronting SMR operators. A second- generation HRA method like ATHEANA is flexible enough to be used for SMR applications, but there is currently insufficient guidance for the analyst, requiring considerably more first-of-a-kind analyses and extensive SMR expertise in order to complete a quality HRA. Although no current HRA method is optimized to SMRs, it is possible to use existing HRA methods to identify errors, incorporate them as human failure events in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and quantify them. In this paper, we provided preliminary guidance to assist the human reliability analyst and reviewer in understanding how to apply current HRA methods to the domain of SMRs. While it is possible to perform a satisfactory HRA using existing HRA methods, ultimately it is desirable to formally incorporate SMR considerations into the methods. This may require the development of new HRA methods. More practicably, existing methods need to be adapted to incorporate SMRs. Such adaptations may take the form of guidance on the complex mapping between conventional light water reactors and small modular reactors. While many behaviors and activities are shared between current plants and SMRs, the methods must adapt if they are to perform a valid and accurate analysis of plant personnel performance in SMRs.

  9. Task Decomposition in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-06-01

    In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down— defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

  10. Cost-benefit analysis of FBR program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, S [Japan Energy Economic Research Inst., Tokyo

    1975-07-01

    In several countries of the world, both financial and human resources are being invested to the development of fast breeder reactors. Quantitative determination of the benefit which will be expected as the reqard to these efforts of research and development - this is the purpose of the present study. It is cost-benefit analysis. The instances of this analysis are given, namely the work in The Institute of Energy Economics in Japan, and also the one by U.S.AEC. The effect of the development of fast breeder reactors is evaluated in this way ; and problems in the analysis method are indicated. These two works in Japan and the U.S. were performed before the so-called oil crisis.

  11. Cost-benefit analysis of FBR program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Shinji

    1975-01-01

    In several countries of the world, both financial and human resources are being invested to the development of fast breeder reactors. Quantitative determination of the benefit which will be expected as the reqard to these efforts of research and development - this is the purpose of the present study. It is cost-benefit analysis. The instances of this analysis are given, namely the work in The Institute of Energy Economics in Japan, and also the one by U.S.AEC. The effect of the development of fast breeder reactors is evaluated in this way ; and problems in the analysis method are indicated. These two works in Japan and the U.S. were performed before the so-called oil crisis. (Mori, K.)

  12. Finite element reliability analysis of fatigue life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harkness, H.H.; Belytschko, T.; Liu, W.K.

    1992-01-01

    Fatigue reliability is addressed by the first-order reliability method combined with a finite element method. Two-dimensional finite element models of components with cracks in mode I are considered with crack growth treated by the Paris law. Probability density functions of the variables affecting fatigue are proposed to reflect a setting where nondestructive evaluation is used, and the Rosenblatt transformation is employed to treat non-Gaussian random variables. Comparisons of the first-order reliability results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the accuracy of the first-order reliability method is quite good in this setting. Results show that the upper portion of the initial crack length probability density function is crucial to reliability, which suggests that if nondestructive evaluation is used, the probability of detection curve plays a key role in reliability. (orig.)

  13. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, R. L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  14. DER Benefits Analysis Studies: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iannucci, J. J.; Cibulka, L.; Eyer, J. M.; Pupp, R. L.

    2003-09-01

    The electric power industry in the United States is undergoing dramatic change. Once totally controlled by utilities that had monopolistic holds on the supply, transmission and distribution of electricity in their service areas, the electric power system is being deregulated, introducing competition among electricity providers who can distinguish themselves by price, services and other factors. The new electric power system will feature advanced technologies and services that can be used on-site or located in close proximity to the load, instead of depending solely upon large, central station generation and transmission. Using a variety of advanced modular generating technologies (including small-scale renewables), distributed energy resource (DER) plants supply base-load power, peaking power, backup power, remote power and/or heating and cooling, and in some cases supply higher and more reliable quality power. Currently, DER represent a minor part of the electric supply system. If the potential of DER is to be realized in the new electric power market, a full understanding of the value and benefits these technologies provide to the electric system is necessary. This report includes 30 key quantitative studies reporting on the values and benefits of distributed energy generation technologies (including renewables) in various applications, as well as a matrix that permits key comparisons.

  15. Reliability Analysis and Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.; Christiani, E.

    1994-01-01

    Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of the most important failure modes, sliding failure, failure of the foundation and overturning failure are described . Relevant design variables are identified...

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 3. System reliability and analysis techniques, Session A - reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lofgren, E.V.

    1985-08-01

    This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the quantitative estimation of reliability at the systems level. Various methods are reviewed, but the structure provided by the fault tree method is used as the basis for system reliability estimates. The principles of fault tree analysis are briefly reviewed. Contributors to system unreliability and unavailability are reviewed, models are given for quantitative evaluation, and the requirements for both generic and plant-specific data are discussed. Also covered are issues of quantifying component faults that relate to the systems context in which the components are embedded. All reliability terms are carefully defined. 44 figs., 22 tabs

  17. HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS DENGAN PENDEKATAN COGNITIVE RELIABILITY AND ERROR ANALYSIS METHOD (CREAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahirah Alifia Maulida

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Kecelakaan kerja pada bidang grinding dan welding menempati urutan tertinggi selama lima tahun terakhir di PT. X. Kecelakaan ini disebabkan oleh human error. Human error terjadi karena pengaruh lingkungan kerja fisik dan non fisik.Penelitian kali menggunakan skenario untuk memprediksi serta mengurangi kemungkinan terjadinya error pada manusia dengan pendekatan CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. CREAM adalah salah satu metode human reliability analysis yang berfungsi untuk mendapatkan nilai Cognitive Failure Probability (CFP yang dapat dilakukan dengan dua cara yaitu basic method dan extended method. Pada basic method hanya akan didapatkan nilai failure probabailty secara umum, sedangkan untuk extended method akan didapatkan CFP untuk setiap task. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan faktor- faktor yang mempengaruhi timbulnya error pada pekerjaan grinding dan welding adalah kecukupan organisasi, kecukupan dari Man Machine Interface (MMI & dukungan operasional, ketersediaan prosedur/ perencanaan, serta kecukupan pelatihan dan pengalaman. Aspek kognitif pada pekerjaan grinding yang memiliki nilai error paling tinggi adalah planning dengan nilai CFP 0.3 dan pada pekerjaan welding yaitu aspek kognitif execution dengan nilai CFP 0.18. Sebagai upaya untuk mengurangi nilai error kognitif pada pekerjaan grinding dan welding rekomendasi yang diberikan adalah memberikan training secara rutin, work instrucstion yang lebih rinci dan memberikan sosialisasi alat. Kata kunci: CREAM (cognitive reliability and error analysis method, HRA (human reliability analysis, cognitive error Abstract The accidents in grinding and welding sectors were the highest cases over the last five years in PT. X and it caused by human error. Human error occurs due to the influence of working environment both physically and non-physically. This study will implement an approaching scenario called CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. CREAM is one of human

  18. STARS software tool for analysis of reliability and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poucet, A.; Guagnini, E.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on the STARS (Software Tool for the Analysis of Reliability and Safety) project aims at developing an integrated set of Computer Aided Reliability Analysis tools for the various tasks involved in systems safety and reliability analysis including hazard identification, qualitative analysis, logic model construction and evaluation. The expert system technology offers the most promising perspective for developing a Computer Aided Reliability Analysis tool. Combined with graphics and analysis capabilities, it can provide a natural engineering oriented environment for computer assisted reliability and safety modelling and analysis. For hazard identification and fault tree construction, a frame/rule based expert system is used, in which the deductive (goal driven) reasoning and the heuristic, applied during manual fault tree construction, is modelled. Expert system can explain their reasoning so that the analyst can become aware of the why and the how results are being obtained. Hence, the learning aspect involved in manual reliability and safety analysis can be maintained and improved

  19. Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Roger

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project is to extend current ground-based HRA risk prediction techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool. Ground-based HRA methodology has been shown to be a reasonable tool for short-duration space missions, such as Space Shuttle and lunar fly-bys. However, longer-duration deep-space missions, such as asteroid and Mars missions, will require the crew to be in space for as long as 400 to 900 day missions with periods of extended autonomy and self-sufficiency. Current indications show higher risk due to fatigue, physiological effects due to extended low gravity environments, and others, may impact HRA predictions. For this project, Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) will work with Human Health & Performance (HH&P) to establish what is currently used to assess human reliabiilty for human space programs, identify human performance factors that may be sensitive to long duration space flight, collect available historical data, and update current tools to account for performance shaping factors believed to be important to such missions. This effort will also contribute data to the Human Performance Data Repository and influence the Space Human Factors Engineering research risks and gaps (part of the HRP Program). An accurate risk predictor mitigates Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM).The end result will be an updated HRA model that can effectively predict risk on long-duration missions.

  20. Individual Differences in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffrey C. Joe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    While human reliability analysis (HRA) methods include uncertainty in quantification, the nominal model of human error in HRA typically assumes that operator performance does not vary significantly when they are given the same initiating event, indicators, procedures, and training, and that any differences in operator performance are simply aleatory (i.e., random). While this assumption generally holds true when performing routine actions, variability in operator response has been observed in multiple studies, especially in complex situations that go beyond training and procedures. As such, complexity can lead to differences in operator performance (e.g., operator understanding and decision-making). Furthermore, psychological research has shown that there are a number of known antecedents (i.e., attributable causes) that consistently contribute to observable and systematically measurable (i.e., not random) differences in behavior. This paper reviews examples of individual differences taken from operational experience and the psychological literature. The impact of these differences in human behavior and their implications for HRA are then discussed. We propose that individual differences should not be treated as aleatory, but rather as epistemic. Ultimately, by understanding the sources of individual differences, it is possible to remove some epistemic uncertainty from analyses.

  1. Environmentally based Cost-Benefit Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnell, M.

    1993-11-01

    The fundamentals of the basic elements of a new comprehensive economic assessment, MILA, developed in Sweden with inspiration from the Total Cost Assessment-model are presented. The core of the MILA approach is an expanded cost and benefit inventory. But MILA also includes a complementary addition of an internal waste stream analysis, a tool for evaluation of environmental conflicts in monetary terms, an extended time horizon and direct allocation of costs and revenues to products and processes. However, MILA does not ensure profitability for environmentally sound projects. Essentially, MILA is an approach of refining investment and profitability analysis of a project, investment or product. 109 refs., 38 figs

  2. Advances in human reliability analysis in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Pamela F.; Gonzalez C, M.; Ruiz S, T.; Guillen M, D.; Contreras V, A.

    2010-10-01

    Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a very important part of Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA), and constant work is dedicated to improving methods, guidance and data in order to approach realism in the results as well as looking for ways to use these to reduce accident frequency at plants. Further, in order to advance in these areas, several HRA studies are being performed globally. Mexico has participated in the International HRA Empirical study with the objective of -benchmarking- HRA methods by comparing HRA predictions to actual crew performance in a simulator, as well as in the empirical study on a US nuclear power plant currently in progress. The focus of the first study was the development of an understanding of how methods are applied by various analysts, and characterize the methods for their capability to guide the analysts to identify potential human failures, and associated causes and performance shaping factors. The HRA benchmarking study has been performed by using the Halden simulator, 14 European crews, and 15 HRA equipment s (NRC, EPRI, and foreign HRA equipment s using different HRA methods). This effort in Mexico is reflected through the work being performed on updating the Laguna Verde PRA to comply with the ASME PRA standard. In order to be considered an HRA with technical adequacy, that is, be considered as a capability category II, for risk-informed applications, the methodology used for the HRA in the original PRA is not considered sufficiently detailed, and the methodology had to upgraded. The HCR/CBDT/THERP method was chosen, since this is used in many nuclear plants with similar design. The HRA update includes identification and evaluation of human errors that can occur during testing and maintenance, as well as human errors that can occur during an accident using the Emergency Operating Procedures. The review of procedures for maintenance, surveillance and operation is a necessary step in HRA and provides insight into the possible

  3. Weibull distribution in reliability data analysis in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Yingfei; Zhang Zhijian; Zhang Min; Zheng Gangyang

    2015-01-01

    Reliability is an important issue affecting each stage of the life cycle ranging from birth to death of a product or a system. The reliability engineering includes the equipment failure data processing, quantitative assessment of system reliability and maintenance, etc. Reliability data refers to the variety of data that describe the reliability of system or component during its operation. These data may be in the form of numbers, graphics, symbols, texts and curves. Quantitative reliability assessment is the task of the reliability data analysis. It provides the information related to preventing, detect, and correct the defects of the reliability design. Reliability data analysis under proceed with the various stages of product life cycle and reliability activities. Reliability data of Systems Structures and Components (SSCs) in Nuclear Power Plants is the key factor of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); reliability centered maintenance and life cycle management. The Weibull distribution is widely used in reliability engineering, failure analysis, industrial engineering to represent manufacturing and delivery times. It is commonly used to model time to fail, time to repair and material strength. In this paper, an improved Weibull distribution is introduced to analyze the reliability data of the SSCs in Nuclear Power Plants. An example is given in the paper to present the result of the new method. The Weibull distribution of mechanical equipment for reliability data fitting ability is very strong in nuclear power plant. It's a widely used mathematical model for reliability analysis. The current commonly used methods are two-parameter and three-parameter Weibull distribution. Through comparison and analysis, the three-parameter Weibull distribution fits the data better. It can reflect the reliability characteristics of the equipment and it is more realistic to the actual situation. (author)

  4. Cost benefit analysis of reactor safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurer, H.A.

    1984-01-01

    Cost/benefit analysis of reactor safety systems is a possibility appropriate to deal with reactor safety. The Commission of the European Communities supported a study on the cost-benefit or cost effectiveness of safety systems installed in modern PWR nuclear power plants. The following systems and their cooperation in emergency cases were in particular investigated in this study: the containment system (double containment), the leakage exhaust and control system, the annulus release exhaust system and the containment spray system. The benefit of a safety system is defined according to its contribution to the reduction of the radiological consequences for the environment after a LOCA. The analysis is so far performed in two different steps: the emergency core cooling system is considered to function properly, failure of the emergency core cooling system is assumed (with the possible consequence of core melt-down) and the results may demonstrate the evidence that striving for cost-effectiveness can produce a safer end result than the philosophy of safety at any cost. (orig.)

  5. Incremental ALARA cost/benefit computer analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamby, P.

    1987-01-01

    Commonwealth Edison Company has developed and is testing an enhanced Fortran Computer Program to be used for cost/benefit analysis of Radiation Reduction Projects at its six nuclear power facilities and Corporate Technical Support Groups. This paper describes a Macro-Diven IBM Mainframe Program comprised of two different types of analyses-an Abbreviated Program with fixed costs and base values, and an extended Engineering Version for a detailed, more through and time-consuming approach. The extended engineering version breaks radiation exposure costs down into two components-Health-Related Costs and Replacement Labor Costs. According to user input, the program automatically adjust these two cost components and applies the derivation to company economic analyses such as replacement power costs, carrying charges, debt interest, and capital investment cost. The results from one of more program runs using different parameters may be compared in order to determine the most appropriate ALARA dose reduction technique. Benefits of this particular cost / benefit analysis technique includes flexibility to accommodate a wide range of user data and pre-job preparation, as well as the use of proven and standardized company economic equations

  6. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu V.S.

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Power distribution systems are basic parts of power systems and reliability of these systems at present is a key issue for power engineering development and requires special attention. Operation of distribution systems is accompanied by a number of factors that produce random data a large number of unplanned interruptions. Research has shown that the predominant factors that have a significant influence on the reliability of distribution systems are: weather conditions (39.7%, defects in equipment(25% and unknown random factors (20.1%. In the article is studied the influence of random behavior and are presented estimations of reliability of predominantly rural electrical distribution systems.

  7. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  8. Reliability in perceptual analysis of voice quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bele, Irene Velsvik

    2005-12-01

    This study focuses on speaking voice quality in male teachers (n = 35) and male actors (n = 36), who represent untrained and trained voice users, because we wanted to investigate normal and supranormal voices. In this study, both substantial and methodologic aspects were considered. It includes a method for perceptual voice evaluation, and a basic issue was rater reliability. A listening group of 10 listeners, 7 experienced speech-language therapists, and 3 speech-language therapist students evaluated the voices by 15 vocal characteristics using VA scales. Two sets of voice signals were investigated: text reading (2 loudness levels) and sustained vowel (3 levels). The results indicated a high interrater reliability for most perceptual characteristics. Connected speech was evaluated more reliably, especially at the normal level, but both types of voice signals were evaluated reliably, although the reliability for connected speech was somewhat higher than for vowels. Experienced listeners tended to be more consistent in their ratings than did the student raters. Some vocal characteristics achieved acceptable reliability even with a smaller panel of listeners. The perceptual characteristics grouped in 4 factors reflected perceptual dimensions.

  9. Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Fracture of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berzonskis, Arvydas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2016-01-01

    in the volume of the casted ductile iron main shaft, on the reliability of the component. The probabilistic reliability analysis conducted is based on fracture mechanics models. Additionally, the utilization of the probabilistic reliability for operation and maintenance planning and quality control is discussed....

  10. Component reliability analysis for development of component reliability DB of Korean standard NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, S. Y.; Han, S. H.; Kim, S. H.

    2002-01-01

    The reliability data of Korean NPP that reflects the plant specific characteristics is necessary for PSA and Risk Informed Application. We have performed a project to develop the component reliability DB and calculate the component reliability such as failure rate and unavailability. We have collected the component operation data and failure/repair data of Korean standard NPPs. We have analyzed failure data by developing a data analysis method which incorporates the domestic data situation. And then we have compared the reliability results with the generic data for the foreign NPPs

  11. Mathematical Methods in Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life

    CERN Document Server

    Huber, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir

    2008-01-01

    Reliability and survival analysis are important applications of stochastic mathematics (probability, statistics and stochastic processes) that are usually covered separately in spite of the similarity of the involved mathematical theory. This title aims to redress this situation: it includes 21 chapters divided into four parts: Survival analysis, Reliability, Quality of life, and Related topics. Many of these chapters were presented at the European Seminar on Mathematical Methods for Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life in 2006.

  12. Reliability demonstration test planning using bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandran, Senthil Kumar; Arul, John A.

    2003-01-01

    In Nuclear Power Plants, the reliability of all the safety systems is very critical from the safety viewpoint and it is very essential that the required reliability requirements be met while satisfying the design constraints. From practical experience, it is found that the reliability of complex systems such as Safety Rod Drive Mechanism is of the order of 10 -4 with an uncertainty factor of 10. To demonstrate the reliability of such systems is prohibitive in terms of cost and time as the number of tests needed is very large. The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian reliability demonstrating testing procedure for exponentially distributed failure times with gamma prior distribution on the failure rate which can be easily and effectively used to demonstrate component/subsystem/system reliability conformance to stated requirements. The important questions addressed in this paper are: With zero failures, how long one should perform the tests and how many components are required to conclude with a given degree of confidence, that the component under test, meets the reliability requirement. The procedure is explained with an example. This procedure can also be extended to demonstrate with more number of failures. The approach presented is applicable for deriving test plans for demonstrating component failure rates of nuclear power plants, as the failure data for similar components are becoming available in existing plants elsewhere. The advantages of this procedure are the criterion upon which the procedure is based is simple and pertinent, the fitting of the prior distribution is an integral part of the procedure and is based on the use of information regarding two percentiles of this distribution and finally, the procedure is straightforward and easy to apply in practice. (author)

  13. Reliability analysis of pipe whip impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Dundulis, G.; Kulak, R.F.; Marchertas, P.V.

    2003-01-01

    A probabilistic analysis of a group distribution header (GDH) guillotine break and the damage resulting from the failed GDH impacting against a neighbouring wall was carried out for the Ignalita RBMK-1500 reactor. The NEPTUNE software system was used for the deterministic transient analysis of a GDH guillotine break. Many deterministic analyses were performed using different values of the random variables that were specified by ProFES software. All the deterministic results were transferred to the ProFES system, which then performed probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method was used to study the sensitivity of the response variables and the effect of uncertainties of material properties and geometry parameters to the probability of limit states. The First Order Reliability Method (FORM) was used to study the probability of failure of the impacted-wall and the support-wall. The Response Surface (RS/MCS) method was used in order to express failure probability as function and to investigate the dependence between impact load and failure probability. The results of the probability analyses for a whipping GDH impacting onto an adjacent wall show that: (i) there is a 0.982 probability that after a GDH guillotine break contact between GDH and wall will occur; (ii) there is a probability of 0.013 that the ultimate tensile strength of concrete at the impact location will be reached, and a through-crack may open; (iii) there is a probability of 0.0126 that the ultimate compressive strength of concrete at the GDH support location will be reached, and the concrete may fail; (iv) at the impact location in the adjacent wall, there is a probability of 0.327 that the ultimate tensile strength of the rebars in the first layer will be reached and the rebars will fail; (v) at the GDH support location, there is a probability of 0.11 that the ultimate stress of the rebars in the first layer will be reached and the rebars will fail

  14. Cost-benefit analysis of wetland restoration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dubgaard, Alex

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is to identify value for money solutions to government policies or projects. Environmental policy appraisal is typically complicated by the fact that thre are a number of feasible solutions to a decision problem - each yielding a different mix of environ...... is to illustrate the application of CBA within the field of river restoration. The Skjern River restoration project in Denmark is used as an empirical example of how these methods can be applied in the wetland restoration context....

  15. Reliability Analysis for Safety Grade PLC(POSAFE-Q)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kyung Chul; Song, Seung Whan; Park, Gang Min; Hwang, Sung Jae

    2012-01-01

    Safety Grade PLC(Programmable Logic Controller), POSAFE-Q, was developed recently in accordance with nuclear regulatory and requirements. In this paper, describe reliability analysis for digital safety grade PLC (especially POSAFE-Q). Reliability analysis scope is Prediction, Calculation of MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), FMEA (Failure Mode Effect Analysis), PFD (Probability of Failure on Demand). (author)

  16. Probabilistic safety analysis and human reliability analysis. Proceedings. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    An international meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was jointly organized by Electricite de France - Research and Development (EDF DER) and SRI International in co-ordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The meeting was held in Paris 21-23 November 1994. A group of international and French specialists in PSA and HRA participated at the meeting and discussed the state of the art and current trends in the following six topics: PSA Methodology; PSA Applications; From PSA to Dependability; Incident Analysis; Safety Indicators; Human Reliability. For each topic a background paper was prepared by EDF/DER and reviewed by the international group of specialists who attended the meeting. The results of this meeting provide a comprehensive overview of the most important questions related to the readiness of PSA for specific uses and areas where further research and development is required. Refs, figs, tabs

  17. Probabilistic safety analysis and human reliability analysis. Proceedings. Working material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    An international meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was jointly organized by Electricite de France - Research and Development (EDF DER) and SRI International in co-ordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The meeting was held in Paris 21-23 November 1994. A group of international and French specialists in PSA and HRA participated at the meeting and discussed the state of the art and current trends in the following six topics: PSA Methodology; PSA Applications; From PSA to Dependability; Incident Analysis; Safety Indicators; Human Reliability. For each topic a background paper was prepared by EDF/DER and reviewed by the international group of specialists who attended the meeting. The results of this meeting provide a comprehensive overview of the most important questions related to the readiness of PSA for specific uses and areas where further research and development is required. Refs, figs, tabs.

  18. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald Laurids Boring

    2010-11-01

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  19. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  20. Cost benefit analysis for occupational radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caruthers, G.F.; Rodgers, R.C.; Donohue, J.P.; Swartz, H.M.

    1978-01-01

    In the course of system design, many decisions must be made concerning different aspects of that particular system. The design of systems and components in a nuclear power plant has the added faction of occupational exposure experienced as a result of that design. This paper will deal with the different methods available to factor occupational exposure into design decisions. The ultimate goal is to have exposures related to the design 'As Low As Reasonably Achievable' or ALARA. To do this an analysis should be performed to show that the cost of reducing exposures any further cannot be justified in a cost-benefit analysis. In this paper examples will be given that will show that it is possible to change to a design which would increase occupational exposure somewhat but would increase the benefit over the cost of the extra exposure received. It will also be shown that some changes in design or additional equipment could be justified due to a reduction in exposure while some changes could not be justified on a reduction in exposure aspect alone but are justified on a time saving aspect such as during a refueling outage. (author)

  1. TIGER reliability analysis in the DSN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, J. M.

    1982-01-01

    The TIGER algorithm, the inputs to the program and the output are described. TIGER is a computer program designed to simulate a system over a period of time to evaluate system reliability and availability. Results can be used in the Deep Space Network for initial spares provisioning and system evaluation.

  2. Reliability analysis of an offshore structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorensen, J. D.; Faber, M. H.; Thoft-Christensen, P.

    1992-01-01

    A jacket type offshore structure from the North Sea is considered. The time variant reliability is estimated for failure defined as brittle fracture and crack through the tubular member walls. The stochastic modelling is described. The hot spot stress spectral moments as function of the stochasti...

  3. Reliability analysis of reactor protection systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsan, S.

    1976-07-01

    A theoretical mathematical study of reliability is presented and the concepts subsequently defined applied to the study of nuclear reactor safety systems. The theory is applied to investigations of the operational reliability of the Siloe reactor from the point of view of rod drop. A statistical study conducted between 1964 and 1971 demonstrated that most rod drop incidents arose from circumstances associated with experimental equipment (new set-ups). The reliability of the most suitable safety system for some recently developed experimental equipment is discussed. Calculations indicate that if all experimental equipment were equipped with these new systems, only 1.75 rod drop accidents would be expected to occur per year on average. It is suggested that all experimental equipment should be equipped with these new safety systems and tested every 21 days. The reliability of the new safety system currently being studied for the Siloe reactor was also investigated. The following results were obtained: definite failures must be detected immediately as a result of the disturbances produced; the repair time must not exceed a few hours; the equipment must be tested every week. Under such conditions, the rate of accidental rod drops is about 0.013 on average per year. The level of nondefinite failures is less than 10 -6 per hour and the level of nonprotection 1 hour per year. (author)

  4. Bypassing BDD Construction for Reliability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Williams, Poul Frederick; Nikolskaia, Macha; Rauzy, Antoine

    2000-01-01

    In this note, we propose a Boolean Expression Diagram (BED)-based algorithm to compute the minimal p-cuts of boolean reliability models such as fault trees. BEDs make it possible to bypass the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) construction, which is the main cost of fault tree assessment....

  5. A methodology to incorporate organizational factors into human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Pengcheng; Chen Guohua; Zhang Li; Xiao Dongsheng

    2010-01-01

    A new holistic methodology for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is proposed to model the effects of the organizational factors on the human reliability. Firstly, a conceptual framework is built, which is used to analyze the causal relationships between the organizational factors and human reliability. Then, the inference model for Human Reliability Analysis is built by combining the conceptual framework with Bayesian networks, which is used to execute the causal inference and diagnostic inference of human reliability. Finally, a case example is presented to demonstrate the specific application of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed methodology of combining the conceptual model with Bayesian Networks can not only easily model the causal relationship between organizational factors and human reliability, but in a given context, people can quantitatively measure the human operational reliability, and identify the most likely root causes or the prioritization of root causes caused human error. (authors)

  6. Mechanical reliability analysis of tubes intended for hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahal, Mourad; Khelif, Rabia [Badji Mokhtar University, Annaba (Algeria)

    2013-02-15

    Reliability analysis constitutes an essential phase in any study concerning reliability. Many industrialists evaluate and improve the reliability of their products during the development cycle - from design to startup (design, manufacture, and exploitation) - to develop their knowledge on cost/reliability ratio and to control sources of failure. In this study, we obtain results for hardness, tensile, and hydrostatic tests carried out on steel tubes for transporting hydrocarbons followed by statistical analysis. Results obtained allow us to conduct a reliability study based on resistance request. Thus, index of reliability is calculated and the importance of the variables related to the tube is presented. Reliability-based assessment of residual stress effects is applied to underground pipelines under a roadway, with and without active corrosion. Residual stress has been found to greatly increase probability of failure, especially in the early stages of pipe lifetime.

  7. Reliability analysis of RC containment structures under combined loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Kagami, S.

    1984-01-01

    This paper discusses a reliability analysis method and load combination design criteria for reinforced concrete containment structures under combined loads. The probability based reliability analysis method is briefly described. For load combination design criteria, derivations of the load factors for accidental pressure due to a design basis accident and safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) for three target limit state probabilities are presented

  8. Cost-benefit considerations in regulatory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mubayi, V.; Sailor, V.; Anandalingam, G.

    1995-10-01

    Justification for safety enhancements at nuclear facilities, e.g., a compulsory backfit to nuclear power plants, requires a value-impact analysis of the increase in overall public protection versus the cost of implementation. It has been customary to assess the benefits in terms of radiation dose to the public averted by the introduction of the safety enhancement. Comparison of such benefits with the costs of the enhancement then requires an estimate of the monetary value of averted dose (dollars/person rem). This report reviews available information on a variety of factors that affect this valuation and assesses the continuing validity of the figure of $1000/person-rem averted, which has been widely used as a guideline in performing value-impact analyses. Factors that bear on this valuation include the health risks of radiation doses, especially the higher risk estimates of the BEIR V committee, recent calculations of doses and offsite costs by consequence codes for hypothesized severe accidents at U.S. nuclear power plants under the NUREG-1150 program, and recent information on the economic consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the Soviet Union and estimates of risk avoidance based on the willingness-to-pay criterion. The report analyzes these factors and presents results on the dollars/person-rem ratio arising from different assumptions on the values of these factors.

  9. Mission Benefits Analysis of Logistics Reduction Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, Michael K.; Broyan, James Lee, Jr.

    2013-01-01

    Future space exploration missions will need to use less logistical supplies if humans are to live for longer periods away from our home planet. Anything that can be done to reduce initial mass and volume of supplies or reuse or recycle items that have been launched will be very valuable. Reuse and recycling also reduce the trash burden and associated nuisances, such as smell, but require good systems engineering and operations integration to reap the greatest benefits. A systems analysis was conducted to quantify the mass and volume savings of four different technologies currently under development by NASA s Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction and Repurposing project. Advanced clothing systems lead to savings by direct mass reduction and increased wear duration. Reuse of logistical items, such as packaging, for a second purpose allows fewer items to be launched. A device known as a heat melt compactor drastically reduces the volume of trash, recovers water and produces a stable tile that can be used instead of launching additional radiation protection. The fourth technology, called trash-to-gas, can benefit a mission by supplying fuel such as methane to the propulsion system. This systems engineering work will help improve logistics planning and overall mission architectures by determining the most effective use, and reuse, of all resources.

  10. Analysis of CDM projects’ potential benefits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Affonso dos Reis Junior

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective – The main goal of this study is to identify and assess, within sustainability reports, information concerning potential carbon credits obtained through projects carried out under Clean Development Mechanism (CDM assumptions, as well as to assess CDM project experts’ perceptions of obstacles to entering carbon credit markets. Design/methodology/approach – exploratory, descriptive, bibliographical and documental research, and interviews. Theoretical basis - Research was based on the concepts of sustainability, especially as to environmental responsibility (CSR; cost-benefit analysis was also considered, since selling carbon credits can be a way of mitigating the trade off between immediate shareholder satisfaction and investment in CSR. Findings – The perceptions of representatives from carbon credit projects’ certifying companies was examined by means of a series of interviews – concluding that savings in costs, business marketing and certifications are even greater motivators than carbon credits themselves. We estimated that, through energy efficiency, the projects discussed in 2011 sustainability reports would be capable of saving approximately 538 million reais in costs. In addition, 40 million reais, considering the rate of the euro and of securities on December 31, 2014, would be gained through the sale of carbon credits. Practical implications – Thus, this research helps to demonstrate the significant potential for further financial gains that companies may obtain through energy efficiency and habitat restructuring, whether by taking advantage of CO2 reduction brought about by such projects, or by developing new projects that continue to benefit economy, society and the environment.

  11. Cost-benefit considerations in regulatory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mubayi, V.; Sailor, V.; Anandalingam, G.

    1995-10-01

    Justification for safety enhancements at nuclear facilities, e.g., a compulsory backfit to nuclear power plants, requires a value-impact analysis of the increase in overall public protection versus the cost of implementation. It has been customary to assess the benefits in terms of radiation dose to the public averted by the introduction of the safety enhancement. Comparison of such benefits with the costs of the enhancement then requires an estimate of the monetary value of averted dose (dollars/person rem). This report reviews available information on a variety of factors that affect this valuation and assesses the continuing validity of the figure of $1000/person-rem averted, which has been widely used as a guideline in performing value-impact analyses. Factors that bear on this valuation include the health risks of radiation doses, especially the higher risk estimates of the BEIR V committee, recent calculations of doses and offsite costs by consequence codes for hypothesized severe accidents at U.S. nuclear power plants under the NUREG-1150 program, and recent information on the economic consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the Soviet Union and estimates of risk avoidance based on the willingness-to-pay criterion. The report analyzes these factors and presents results on the dollars/person-rem ratio arising from different assumptions on the values of these factors

  12. Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, J.; Kim, J. Y. [Chungnam Nat. Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-06-15

    FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system.

  13. Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, J.; Kim, J. Y.

    2006-06-01

    FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system

  14. Advances in methods and applications of reliability and safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fieandt, J.; Hossi, H.; Laakso, K.; Lyytikaeinen, A.; Niemelae, I.; Pulkkinen, U.; Pulli, T.

    1986-01-01

    The know-how of the reliability and safety design and analysis techniques of Vtt has been established over several years in analyzing the reliability in the Finnish nuclear power plants Loviisa and Olkiluoto. This experience has been later on applied and developed to be used in the process industry, conventional power industry, automation and electronics. VTT develops and transfers methods and tools for reliability and safety analysis to the private and public sectors. The technology transfer takes place in joint development projects with potential users. Several computer-aided methods, such as RELVEC for reliability modelling and analysis, have been developed. The tool developed are today used by major Finnish companies in the fields of automation, nuclear power, shipbuilding and electronics. Development of computer-aided and other methods needed in analysis of operating experience, reliability or safety is further going on in a number of research and development projects

  15. Digital Processor Module Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong; Jung, Jae Hyun; Kim, Jae Ho; Kim, Sung Hun

    2005-01-01

    The system used in plant, military equipment, satellite, etc. consists of many electronic parts as control module, which requires relatively high reliability than other commercial electronic products. Specially, Nuclear power plant related to the radiation safety requires high safety and reliability, so most parts apply to Military-Standard level. Reliability prediction method provides the rational basis of system designs and also provides the safety significance of system operations. Thus various reliability prediction tools have been developed in recent decades, among of them, the MI-HDBK-217 method has been widely used as a powerful tool for the prediction. In this work, It is explained that reliability analysis work for Digital Processor Module (DPM, control module of SMART) is performed by Parts Stress Method based on MIL-HDBK-217F NOTICE2. We are using the Relex 7.6 of Relex software corporation, because reliability analysis process requires enormous part libraries and data for failure rate calculation

  16. Time-dependent reliability sensitivity analysis of motion mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Pengfei; Song, Jingwen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Yue, Zhufeng

    2016-01-01

    Reliability sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the source of structure/mechanism failure, and quantifying the effects of each random source or their distribution parameters on failure probability or reliability. In this paper, the time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity (PRS) analysis as well as the global reliability sensitivity (GRS) analysis is introduced for the motion mechanisms. The PRS indices are defined as the partial derivatives of the time-dependent reliability w.r.t. the distribution parameters of each random input variable, and they quantify the effect of the small change of each distribution parameter on the time-dependent reliability. The GRS indices are defined for quantifying the individual, interaction and total contributions of the uncertainty in each random input variable to the time-dependent reliability. The envelope function method combined with the first order approximation of the motion error function is introduced for efficiently estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices. Both the time-dependent PRS and GRS analysis techniques can be especially useful for reliability-based design. This significance of the proposed methods as well as the effectiveness of the envelope function method for estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices are demonstrated with a four-bar mechanism and a car rack-and-pinion steering linkage. - Highlights: • Time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity analysis is presented. • Time-dependent global reliability sensitivity analysis is presented for mechanisms. • The proposed method is especially useful for enhancing the kinematic reliability. • An envelope method is introduced for efficiently implementing the proposed methods. • The proposed method is demonstrated by two real planar mechanisms.

  17. 24 CFR 965.402 - Benefit/cost analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Benefit/cost analysis. 965.402...-Owned Projects § 965.402 Benefit/cost analysis. (a) A benefit/cost analysis shall be made to determine... (Continued) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC AND INDIAN HOUSING, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN...

  18. Systems reliability analysis for the national ignition facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, K.C.; Annese, C.E.; MacIntyre, A.T.; Sicherman, A.

    1996-01-01

    A Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) analysis was initiated for the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The NIF is an inertial confinement fusion research facility designed to achieve controlled thermonuclear reaction; the preferred site for the NIF is the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The NIF RAM analysis has three purposes: (1) to allocate top level reliability and availability goals for the systems, (2) to develop an operability model for optimum maintainability, and (3) to determine the achievability of the allocated goals of the RAM parameters for the NIF systems and the facility operation as a whole. An allocation model assigns the reliability and availability goals for front line and support systems by a top-down approach; reliability analysis uses a bottom-up approach to determine the system reliability and availability from component level to system level

  19. Interactive reliability analysis project. FY 80 progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmuson, D.M.; Shepherd, J.C.

    1981-03-01

    This report summarizes the progress to date in the interactive reliability analysis project. Purpose is to develop and demonstrate a reliability and safety technique that can be incorporated early in the design process. Details are illustrated in a simple example of a reactor safety system

  20. Reliability analysis of grid connected small wind turbine power electronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arifujjaman, Md.; Iqbal, M.T.; Quaicoe, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    Grid connection of small permanent magnet generator (PMG) based wind turbines requires a power conditioning system comprising a bridge rectifier, a dc-dc converter and a grid-tie inverter. This work presents a reliability analysis and an identification of the least reliable component of the power conditioning system of such grid connection arrangements. Reliability of the configuration is analyzed for the worst case scenario of maximum conversion losses at a particular wind speed. The analysis reveals that the reliability of the power conditioning system of such PMG based wind turbines is fairly low and it reduces to 84% of initial value within one year. The investigation is further enhanced by identifying the least reliable component within the power conditioning system and found that the inverter has the dominant effect on the system reliability, while the dc-dc converter has the least significant effect. The reliability analysis demonstrates that a permanent magnet generator based wind energy conversion system is not the best option from the point of view of power conditioning system reliability. The analysis also reveals that new research is required to determine a robust power electronics configuration for small wind turbine conversion systems.

  1. Reliability analysis of wind embedded power generation system for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents a method for Reliability Analysis of wind energy embedded in power generation system for Indian scenario. This is done by evaluating the reliability index, loss of load expectation, for the power generation system with and without integration of wind energy sources in the overall electric power system.

  2. Analysis of Employee Benefits in Organisation

    OpenAIRE

    Smilnická, Martina

    2009-01-01

    The aim of bachelor's work is to characterize and to sum up the system of employee benefits in ČSOB, a.s.. In the first part of the work are generally described forms of remuneration, characterized employee benefits, aims and forms how they are provided, options of their classification and current trends in this area. The second part introduces the company and its system of employee benefits. By the help of questionnaire survey realized in the company was analysed the system of benefits and s...

  3. Analysis of the employee Benefits in Specific Organization

    OpenAIRE

    Procházková, Petra

    2011-01-01

    The main subject of my Bachelor's Thesis called "Analysis of employee Benefits in Specific Organization" is to analyze system of employee benefits used in company RWE Transgas, a. s. in 2010. Theoretical part will specify basic terms in general, which are important to cope with this issue. There will be especially importance, division, risks and trends in benefits. In practical part the analysis of employee benefits in specific joint-stock company is made. Part of this analysis is survey done...

  4. Analysis and assessment of water treatment plant reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szpak Dawid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the publication is the analysis and assessment of the reliability of the surface water treatment plant (WTP. In the study the one parameter method of reliability assessment was used. Based on the flow sheet derived from the water company the reliability scheme of the analysed WTP was prepared. On the basis of the daily WTP work report the availability index Kg for the individual elements included in the WTP, was determined. Then, based on the developed reliability scheme showing the interrelationships between elements, the availability index Kg for the whole WTP was determined. The obtained value of the availability index Kg was compared with the criteria values.

  5. An integrated approach to human reliability analysis -- decision analytic dynamic reliability model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Hukki, K.; Norros, L.; Pulkkinen, U.; Pyy, P.

    1999-01-01

    The reliability of human operators in process control is sensitive to the context. In many contemporary human reliability analysis (HRA) methods, this is not sufficiently taken into account. The aim of this article is that integration between probabilistic and psychological approaches in human reliability should be attempted. This is achieved first, by adopting such methods that adequately reflect the essential features of the process control activity, and secondly, by carrying out an interactive HRA process. Description of the activity context, probabilistic modeling, and psychological analysis form an iterative interdisciplinary sequence of analysis in which the results of one sub-task maybe input to another. The analysis of the context is carried out first with the help of a common set of conceptual tools. The resulting descriptions of the context promote the probabilistic modeling, through which new results regarding the probabilistic dynamics can be achieved. These can be incorporated in the context descriptions used as reference in the psychological analysis of actual performance. The results also provide new knowledge of the constraints of activity, by providing information of the premises of the operator's actions. Finally, the stochastic marked point process model gives a tool, by which psychological methodology may be interpreted and utilized for reliability analysis

  6. Reliability analysis applied to structural tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, P.; Payne, A. O.

    1972-01-01

    The application of reliability theory to predict, from structural fatigue test data, the risk of failure of a structure under service conditions because its load-carrying capability is progressively reduced by the extension of a fatigue crack, is considered. The procedure is applicable to both safe-life and fail-safe structures and, for a prescribed safety level, it will enable an inspection procedure to be planned or, if inspection is not feasible, it will evaluate the life to replacement. The theory has been further developed to cope with the case of structures with initial cracks, such as can occur in modern high-strength materials which are susceptible to the formation of small flaws during the production process. The method has been applied to a structure of high-strength steel and the results are compared with those obtained by the current life estimation procedures. This has shown that the conventional methods can be unconservative in certain cases, depending on the characteristics of the structure and the design operating conditions. The suitability of the probabilistic approach to the interpretation of the results from full-scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures is discussed and the assumptions involved are examined.

  7. Application of DFM in human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shaojie; Zhao Jun; Tong Jiejuan

    2011-01-01

    Combining with ATHEANA, the possible to identify EFCs and UAs using DFM is studied; and then Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident is modeled and solved. Through inductive analysis, 26 Prime Implicants (PIs) are obtained and the meaning of results is interpreted; and one of PIs is similar to the accident scenario of human failure event in one nuclear power plant. Finally, this paper discusses the methods of quantifying PIs, analysis of Error of commission (EOC) and so on. (authors)

  8. Analysis of operating reliability of WWER-1000 unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bortlik, J.

    1985-01-01

    The nuclear power unit was divided into 33 technological units. Input data for reliability analysis were surveys of operating results obtained from the IAEA information system and certain indexes of the reliability of technological equipment determined using the Bayes formula. The missing reliability data for technological equipment were used from the basic variant. The fault tree of the WWER-1000 unit was determined for the peak event defined as the impossibility of reaching 100%, 75% and 50% of rated power. The period was observed of the nuclear power plant operation with reduced output owing to defect and the respective time needed for a repair of the equipment. The calculation of the availability of the WWER-1000 unit was made for different variant situations. Certain indexes of the operating reliability of the WWER-1000 unit which are the result of a detailed reliability analysis are tabulated for selected variants. (E.S.)

  9. Analysis of employee benefits in a certain company

    OpenAIRE

    Valderová, Lenka

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this bachelor's thesismis to present motivation, the employee benefits and possibilities of providing them by the employer. Next there will follow analysis of the provided employee benefits in a chosen company. The analysis should reveal if the company applies theoretical knowledge in providing the employee benefits into practical life to meet its employees satisfaction.

  10. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  11. Reliability analysis of digital I and C systems at KAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research activities on a reliability analysis of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs) performed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The research activities include the development of a new safety-critical software reliability analysis method by integrating the advantages of existing software reliability analysis methods, a fault coverage estimation method based on fault injection experiments, and a new human reliability analysis method for computer-based main control rooms (MCRs) based on human performance data from the APR-1400 full-scope simulator. The research results are expected to be used to address various issues such as the licensing issues related to digital I and C probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for advanced digital-based NPPs. (author)

  12. PSA applications and piping reliability analysis: where do we stand?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydell, B.O.Y.

    1997-01-01

    This reviews a recently proposed framework for piping reliability analysis. The framework was developed to promote critical interpretations of operational data on pipe failures, and to support application-specific-parameter estimation

  13. Reliability analysis of digital safety systems at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sopira Vladimir; Kovacs, Zoltan

    2015-01-01

    Reliability analysis of digital reactor protection systems built on the basis of TELEPERM XS is described, and experience gained by the Slovak RELKO company during the past 20 years in this domain is highlighted. (orig.)

  14. reliability analysis of a two span floor designed according

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    deterministic approach, considering both ultimate and serviceability limit states. Reliability analysis of the floor ... loading, strength and stiffness parameters, dimensions .... to show that there is a direct relation between the failure probability (Pf) ...

  15. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  16. Human reliability analysis in Loviisa probabilistic safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illman, L.; Isaksson, J.; Makkonen, L.; Vaurio, J.K.; Vuorio, U.

    1986-01-01

    The human reliability analysis in the Loviisa PSA project is carried out for three major groups of errors in human actions: (A) errors made before an initiating event, (B) errors that initiate a transient and (C) errors made during transients. Recovery possibilities are also included in each group. The methods used or planned for each group are described. A simplified THERP approach is used for group A, with emphasis on test and maintenance error recovery aspects and dependencies between redundancies. For group B, task analyses and human factors assessments are made for startup, shutdown and operational transients, with emphasis on potential common cause initiators. For group C, both misdiagnosis and slow decision making are analyzed, as well as errors made in carrying out necessary or backup actions. New or advanced features of the methodology are described

  17. Safety and reliability analysis based on nonprobabilistic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.O.; Petersen, K.E.

    1996-01-01

    Imprecise probabilities, being developed during the last two decades, offer a considerably more general theory having many advantages which make it very promising for reliability and safety analysis. The objective of the paper is to argue that imprecise probabilities are more appropriate tool for reliability and safety analysis, that they allow to model the behavior of nuclear industry objects more comprehensively and give a possibility to solve some problems unsolved in the framework of conventional approach. Furthermore, some specific examples are given from which we can see the usefulness of the tool for solving some reliability tasks

  18. Transmission cost allocation based on power flow tracing considering reliability benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leepreechanon, N.; Singharerg, S.; Padungwech, W.; Nakawiro, W.; Eua-Arporn, B.; David, A.K.

    2007-01-01

    Power transmission networks must be able to accommodate the continuously growing demand for reliable and economical electricity. This paper presented a method to allocate transmission use and reliability cost to both generators and end-consumers. Although transmission cost allocation methods change depending on the local context of the electric power industry, there is a common principle that transmission line capacity should be properly allocated to accommodate actual power delivery with an adequate reliability margin. The method proposed in this paper allocates transmission embedded cost to both generators and loads in an equitable manner, incorporating probability indices to allocate transmission reliability margin among users in both supply and demand sides. The application of the proposed method was illustrated using Bialek's tracing method on a multiple-circuit, six-bus transmission system. Probabilistic indices known as the transmission internal reliability margin (TIRM) and transmission external reliability margin (TERM) decomposed from the transmission reliability margin (TRM) were introduced, making true cost of using overall transmission facilities. 6 refs., 11 tabs., 5 figs

  19. Statis Program Analysis for Reliable, Trusted Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-01

    and prevent errors in their Java programs. The Checker Framework includes compiler plug-ins (“checkers”) that find bugs or verify their absence. It...versions of the Java language. 4.8 DATAFLOW FRAMEWORK The dataflow framework enables more accurate analysis of source code. (Despite their similar...names, the dataflow framework is independent of the (Information) Flow Checker of chapter 2.) In Java code, a given operation may be permitted or

  20. Improvement of the cost-benefit analysis algorithm for high-rise construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gafurov Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The specific nature of high-rise investment projects entailing long-term construction, high risks, etc. implies a need to improve the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis. An improved algorithm is described in the article. For development of the improved algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects, the following methods were used: weighted average cost of capital, dynamic cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, risk mapping, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis of critical ratios, etc. This comprehensive approach helped to adapt the original algorithm to feasibility objectives in high-rise construction. The authors put together the algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects on the basis of risk mapping and sensitivity analysis of critical ratios. The suggested project risk management algorithms greatly expand the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis in investment projects, namely: the “Project analysis scenario” flowchart, improving quality and reliability of forecasting reports in investment projects; the main stages of cash flow adjustment based on risk mapping for better cost-benefit project analysis provided the broad range of risks in high-rise construction; analysis of dynamic cost-benefit values considering project sensitivity to crucial variables, improving flexibility in implementation of high-rise projects.

  1. Improvement of the cost-benefit analysis algorithm for high-rise construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafurov, Andrey; Skotarenko, Oksana; Plotnikov, Vladimir

    2018-03-01

    The specific nature of high-rise investment projects entailing long-term construction, high risks, etc. implies a need to improve the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis. An improved algorithm is described in the article. For development of the improved algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects, the following methods were used: weighted average cost of capital, dynamic cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, risk mapping, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis of critical ratios, etc. This comprehensive approach helped to adapt the original algorithm to feasibility objectives in high-rise construction. The authors put together the algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects on the basis of risk mapping and sensitivity analysis of critical ratios. The suggested project risk management algorithms greatly expand the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis in investment projects, namely: the "Project analysis scenario" flowchart, improving quality and reliability of forecasting reports in investment projects; the main stages of cash flow adjustment based on risk mapping for better cost-benefit project analysis provided the broad range of risks in high-rise construction; analysis of dynamic cost-benefit values considering project sensitivity to crucial variables, improving flexibility in implementation of high-rise projects.

  2. Reliability analysis of digital based I and C system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, I. S.; Cho, B. S.; Choi, M. J. [KOPEC, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-10-01

    Rapidly, digital technology is being widely applied in replacing analog component installed in existing plant and designing new nuclear power plant for control and monitoring system in Korea as well as in foreign countries. Even though many merits of digital technology, it is being faced with a new problem of reliability assurance. The studies for solving this problem are being performed vigorously in foreign countries. The reliability of KNGR Engineered Safety Features Component Control System (ESF-CCS), digital based I and C system, was analyzed to verify fulfillment of the ALWR EPRI-URD requirement for reliability analysis and eliminate hazards in design applied new technology. The qualitative analysis using FMEA and quantitative analysis using reliability block diagram were performed. The results of analyses are shown in this paper.

  3. Application of Fault Tree Analysis for Estimating Temperature Alarm Circuit Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Shanshoury, A.I.; El-Shanshoury, G.I.

    2011-01-01

    Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of the most widely-used methods in system reliability analysis. It is a graphical technique that provides a systematic description of the combinations of possible occurrences in a system, which can result in an undesirable outcome. The presented paper deals with the application of FTA method in analyzing temperature alarm circuit. The criticality failure of this circuit comes from failing to alarm when temperature exceeds a certain limit. In order for a circuit to be safe, a detailed analysis of the faults causing circuit failure is performed by configuring fault tree diagram (qualitative analysis). Calculations of circuit quantitative reliability parameters such as Failure Rate (FR) and Mean Time between Failures (MTBF) are also done by using Relex 2009 computer program. Benefits of FTA are assessing system reliability or safety during operation, improving understanding of the system, and identifying root causes of equipment failures

  4. Reliability analysis and utilization of PEMs in space application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiujie; Wang, Zhihua; Sun, Huixian; Chen, Xiaomin; Zhao, Tianlin; Yu, Guanghua; Zhou, Changyi

    2009-11-01

    More and more plastic encapsulated microcircuits (PEMs) are used in space missions to achieve high performance. Since PEMs are designed for use in terrestrial operating conditions, the successful usage of PEMs in space harsh environment is closely related to reliability issues, which should be considered firstly. However, there is no ready-made methodology for PEMs in space applications. This paper discusses the reliability for the usage of PEMs in space. This reliability analysis can be divided into five categories: radiation test, radiation hardness, screening test, reliability calculation and reliability assessment. One case study is also presented to illuminate the details of the process, in which a PEM part is used in a joint space program Double-Star Project between the European Space Agency (ESA) and China. The influence of environmental constrains including radiation, humidity, temperature and mechanics on the PEM part has been considered. Both Double-Star Project satellites are still running well in space now.

  5. Reliability Engineering Analysis of ATLAS Data Reprocessing Campaigns

    CERN Document Server

    Vaniachine, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Karpenko, D

    2013-01-01

    During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability...

  6. Reliability Engineering Analysis of ATLAS Data Reprocessing Campaigns

    CERN Document Server

    Vaniachine, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Karpenko, D

    2014-01-01

    During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability...

  7. Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional approaches...

  8. Reliability analysis of dispersion nuclear fuel elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Shurong; Jiang, Xin; Huo, Yongzhong; Li, Lin an

    2008-03-01

    Taking a dispersion fuel element as a special particle composite, the representative volume element is chosen to act as the research object. The fuel swelling is simulated through temperature increase. The large strain elastoplastic analysis is carried out for the mechanical behaviors using FEM. The results indicate that the fission swelling is simulated successfully; the thickness increments grow linearly with burnup; with increasing of burnup: (1) the first principal stresses at fuel particles change from tensile ones to compression ones, (2) the maximum Mises stresses at the particles transfer from the centers of fuel particles to the location close to the interfaces between the matrix and the particles, their values increase with burnup; the maximum Mises stresses at the matrix exist in the middle location between the two particles near the mid-plane along the length (or width) direction, and the maximum plastic strains are also at the above region.

  9. Reliability analysis of dispersion nuclear fuel elements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ding Shurong [Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)], E-mail: dsr1971@163.com; Jiang Xin [Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Huo Yongzhong [Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)], E-mail: yzhuo@fudan.edu.cn; Li Linan [Department of Mechanics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China)

    2008-03-15

    Taking a dispersion fuel element as a special particle composite, the representative volume element is chosen to act as the research object. The fuel swelling is simulated through temperature increase. The large strain elastoplastic analysis is carried out for the mechanical behaviors using FEM. The results indicate that the fission swelling is simulated successfully; the thickness increments grow linearly with burnup; with increasing of burnup: (1) the first principal stresses at fuel particles change from tensile ones to compression ones, (2) the maximum Mises stresses at the particles transfer from the centers of fuel particles to the location close to the interfaces between the matrix and the particles, their values increase with burnup; the maximum Mises stresses at the matrix exist in the middle location between the two particles near the mid-plane along the length (or width) direction, and the maximum plastic strains are also at the above region.

  10. The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

    1995-01-01

    It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health

  11. Durability reliability analysis for corroding concrete structures under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a durability reliability analysis of reinforced concrete structures subject to the action of marine chloride. The focus is to provide insight into the role of epistemic uncertainties on durability reliability. The corrosion model involves a number of variables whose probabilistic characteristics cannot be fully determined due to the limited availability of supporting data. All sources of uncertainty, both aleatory and epistemic, should be included in the reliability analysis. Two methods are available to formulate the epistemic uncertainty: the imprecise probability-based method and the purely probabilistic method in which the epistemic uncertainties are modeled as random variables. The paper illustrates how the epistemic uncertainties are modeled and propagated in the two methods, and shows how epistemic uncertainties govern the durability reliability.

  12. Reliability analysis of HVDC grid combined with power flow simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yongtao; Langeland, Tore; Solvik, Johan [DNV AS, Hoevik (Norway); Stewart, Emma [DNV KEMA, Camino Ramon, CA (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Based on a DC grid power flow solver and the proposed GEIR, we carried out reliability analysis for a HVDC grid test system proposed by CIGRE working group B4-58, where the failure statistics are collected from literature survey. The proposed methodology is used to evaluate the impact of converter configuration on the overall reliability performance of the HVDC grid, where the symmetrical monopole configuration is compared with the bipole with metallic return wire configuration. The results quantify the improvement on reliability by using the later alternative. (orig.)

  13. Reliability analysis of neutron transport simulation using Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Bismarck A. de; Borges, Jose C.

    1995-01-01

    This work presents a statistical and reliability analysis covering data obtained by computer simulation of neutron transport process, using the Monte Carlo method. A general description of the method and its applications is presented. Several simulations, corresponding to slowing down and shielding problems have been accomplished. The influence of the physical dimensions of the materials and of the sample size on the reliability level of results was investigated. The objective was to optimize the sample size, in order to obtain reliable results, optimizing computation time. (author). 5 refs, 8 figs

  14. Benefit-cost analysis of OHER research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nesse, R.J.

    1988-01-01

    This research was undertaken to estimate societal benefits and costs of selected past research performed for OHER. Three case studies of representative OHER and DOE research were performed. One of these, the acid rain case study, included research conducted in another office in DOE. The other two cases were the OHER marine research program and the OHER project that developed high-purity germanium used in radiation detectors. The acid rain case study looked at research benefits and costs of furnace sorbent injection and duct injection, technologies that might reduce acid deposition precursors. Both appeared to show benefits in excess of costs. They examined in detail one of the marine research program's accomplishments, the increase in environmental information used by the Outer Continental Shelf leasing program to manage bidding for off-shore oil drilling. The results of an econometric model showed that, environmentally, marine research supported by OHER is unequivocally linked to government and industry leasing decisions. Finally, the germanium case study indicated that benefits of germanium radiation detectors were significant

  15. Analysis of sodium valve reliability data at CREDO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Haas, P.M.

    1979-01-01

    The Centralized Reliability Data Organization (CREDO) has been established at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) by the Department of Energy to provide a centralized source of data for reliability/maintainabilty analysis of advanced reactor systems. The current schedule calls for develoment of the data system at a moderate pace, with the first major distribution of data in late FY-1980. Continuous long-term collection of engineering, operating, and event data has been initiated at EBR-II and FFTF

  16. Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Ronald; Thöns, Sebastian; Straub, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through B...... is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses. The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue....

  17. Use of COMCAN III in system design and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmuson, D.M.; Shepherd, J.C.; Marshall, N.H.; Fitch, L.R.

    1982-03-01

    This manual describes the COMCAN III computer program and its use. COMCAN III is a tool that can be used by the reliability analyst performing a probabilistic risk assessment or by the designer of a system desiring improved performance and efficiency. COMCAN III can be used to determine minimal cut sets of a fault tree, to calculate system reliability characteristics, and to perform qualitative common cause failure analysis

  18. Cost benefit analysis of power plant database integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilber, B.E.; Cimento, A.; Stuart, R.

    1988-01-01

    A cost benefit analysis of plant wide data integration allows utility management to evaluate integration and automation benefits from an economic perspective. With this evaluation, the utility can determine both the quantitative and qualitative savings that can be expected from data integration. The cost benefit analysis is then a planning tool which helps the utility to develop a focused long term implementation strategy that will yield significant near term benefits. This paper presents a flexible cost benefit analysis methodology which is both simple to use and yields accurate, verifiable results. Included in this paper is a list of parameters to consider, a procedure for performing the cost savings analysis, and samples of this procedure when applied to a utility. A case study is presented involving a specific utility where this procedure was applied. Their uses of the cost-benefit analysis are also described

  19. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-01-01

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  20. Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

    In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

  1. Test-retest reliability of trunk accelerometric gait analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Marius; Lund, Hans; Moe-Nilssen, R

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the test-retest reliability of a trunk accelerometric gait analysis in healthy subjects. Accelerations were measured during walking using a triaxial accelerometer mounted on the lumbar spine of the subjects. Six men and 14 women (mean age 35.2; range 18...... a definite potential in clinical gait analysis....

  2. Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

    1993-10-01

    The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

  3. Reliability analysis for Atucha II reactor protection system signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roca, Jose Luis

    1996-01-01

    Atucha II is a 745 MW Argentine Power Nuclear Reactor constructed by ENACE SA, Nuclear Argentine Company for Electrical Power Generation and SIEMENS AG KWU, Erlangen, Germany. A preliminary modular logic analysis of RPS (Reactor Protection System) signals was performed by means of the well known Swedish professional risk and reliability software named Risk-Spectrum taking as a basis a reference signal coded as JR17ER003 which command the two moderator loops valves. From the reliability and behavior knowledge for this reference signal follows an estimation of the reliability for the other 97 RPS signals. Because the preliminary character of this analysis Main Important Measures are not performed at this stage. Reliability is by the statistic value named unavailability predicted. The scope of this analysis is restricted from the measurement elements to the RPS buffer outputs. In the present context only one redundancy is analyzed so in the Instrumentation and Control area there no CCF (Common Cause Failures) present for signals. Finally those unavailability values could be introduced in the failure domain for the posterior complete Atucha II reliability analysis which includes all mechanical and electromechanical features. Also an estimation of the spurious frequency of RPS signals defined as faulty by no trip is performed

  4. Reliability analysis for Atucha II reactor protection system signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roca, Jose L.

    2000-01-01

    Atucha II is a 745 MW Argentine power nuclear reactor constructed by Nuclear Argentine Company for Electric Power Generation S.A. (ENACE S.A.) and SIEMENS AG KWU, Erlangen, Germany. A preliminary modular logic analysis of RPS (Reactor Protection System) signals was performed by means of the well known Swedish professional risk and reliability software named Risk-Spectrum taking as a basis a reference signal coded as JR17ER003 which command the two moderator loops valves. From the reliability and behavior knowledge for this reference signal follows an estimation of the reliability for the other 97 RPS signals. Because the preliminary character of this analysis Main Important Measures are not performed at this stage. Reliability is by the statistic value named unavailability predicted. The scope of this analysis is restricted from the measurement elements to the RPS buffer outputs. In the present context only one redundancy is analyzed so in the Instrumentation and Control area there no CCF (Common Cause Failures) present for signals. Finally those unavailability values could be introduced in the failure domain for the posterior complete Atucha II reliability analysis which includes all mechanical and electromechanical features. Also an estimation of the spurious frequency of RPS signals defined as faulty by no trip is performed. (author)

  5. Human reliability analysis methods for probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.

    2000-11-01

    Human reliability analysis (HRA) of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) includes identifying human actions from safety point of view, modelling the most important of them in PSA models, and assessing their probabilities. As manifested by many incidents and studies, human actions may have both positive and negative effect on safety and economy. Human reliability analysis is one of the areas of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) that has direct applications outside the nuclear industry. The thesis focuses upon developments in human reliability analysis methods and data. The aim is to support PSA by extending the applicability of HRA. The thesis consists of six publications and a summary. The summary includes general considerations and a discussion about human actions in the nuclear power plant (NPP) environment. A condensed discussion about the results of the attached publications is then given, including new development in methods and data. At the end of the summary part, the contribution of the publications to good practice in HRA is presented. In the publications, studies based on the collection of data on maintenance-related failures, simulator runs and expert judgement are presented in order to extend the human reliability analysis database. Furthermore, methodological frameworks are presented to perform a comprehensive HRA, including shutdown conditions, to study reliability of decision making, and to study the effects of wrong human actions. In the last publication, an interdisciplinary approach to analysing human decision making is presented. The publications also include practical applications of the presented methodological frameworks. (orig.)

  6. The development of a reliable amateur boxing performance analysis template.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Edward; Lamb, Kevin; Nicholas, Ceri

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to devise a valid performance analysis system for the assessment of the movement characteristics associated with competitive amateur boxing and assess its reliability using analysts of varying experience of the sport and performance analysis. Key performance indicators to characterise the demands of an amateur contest (offensive, defensive and feinting) were developed and notated using a computerised notational analysis system. Data were subjected to intra- and inter-observer reliability assessment using median sign tests and calculating the proportion of agreement within predetermined limits of error. For all performance indicators, intra-observer reliability revealed non-significant differences between observations (P > 0.05) and high agreement was established (80-100%) regardless of whether exact or the reference value of ±1 was applied. Inter-observer reliability was less impressive for both analysts (amateur boxer and experienced analyst), with the proportion of agreement ranging from 33-100%. Nonetheless, there was no systematic bias between observations for any indicator (P > 0.05), and the proportion of agreement within the reference range (±1) was 100%. A reliable performance analysis template has been developed for the assessment of amateur boxing performance and is available for use by researchers, coaches and athletes to classify and quantify the movement characteristics of amateur boxing.

  7. Reliability analysis of cluster-based ad-hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, Jason L.; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

    2008-01-01

    The mobile ad-hoc wireless network (MAWN) is a new and emerging network scheme that is being employed in a variety of applications. The MAWN varies from traditional networks because it is a self-forming and dynamic network. The MAWN is free of infrastructure and, as such, only the mobile nodes comprise the network. Pairs of nodes communicate either directly or through other nodes. To do so, each node acts, in turn, as a source, destination, and relay of messages. The virtue of a MAWN is the flexibility this provides; however, the challenge for reliability analyses is also brought about by this unique feature. The variability and volatility of the MAWN configuration makes typical reliability methods (e.g. reliability block diagram) inappropriate because no single structure or configuration represents all manifestations of a MAWN. For this reason, new methods are being developed to analyze the reliability of this new networking technology. New published methods adapt to this feature by treating the configuration probabilistically or by inclusion of embedded mobility models. This paper joins both methods together and expands upon these works by modifying the problem formulation to address the reliability analysis of a cluster-based MAWN. The cluster-based MAWN is deployed in applications with constraints on networking resources such as bandwidth and energy. This paper presents the problem's formulation, a discussion of applicable reliability metrics for the MAWN, and illustration of a Monte Carlo simulation method through the analysis of several example networks

  8. Fatigue Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Brincker, Rune

    1991-01-01

    In this paper, a fatigue reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure mode, fatigue failure in the butt welds, is investigated with two different models. The one with the fatigue strength expressed through SN relations, the other with the fatigue strength expressed thro...... of the natural period, damping ratio, current, stress spectrum and parameters describing the fatigue strength. Further, soil damping is shown to be significant for the Mono-tower.......In this paper, a fatigue reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure mode, fatigue failure in the butt welds, is investigated with two different models. The one with the fatigue strength expressed through SN relations, the other with the fatigue strength expressed...... through linear-elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). In determining the cumulative fatigue damage, Palmgren-Miner's rule is applied. Element reliability, as well as systems reliability, is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The sensitivity of the systems reliability to various parameters...

  9. State of the art report on aging reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Han, Sang Hoon; Ha, Jae Joo

    2002-03-01

    The goal of this report is to describe the state of the art on aging analysis methods to calculate the effects of component aging quantitatively. In this report, we described some aging analysis methods which calculate the increase of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) due to aging by including the influence of aging into PSA. We also described several research topics required for aging analysis for components of domestic NPPs. We have described a statistical model and reliability physics model which calculate the effect of aging quantitatively by using PSA method. It is expected that the practical use of the reliability-physics model will be increased though the process with the reliability-physics model is more complicated than statistical model

  10. IEEE guide for the analysis of human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougherty, E.M. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) working group 7.4 of the Human Factors and Control Facilities Subcommittee of the Nuclear Power Engineering Committee (NPEC) has released its fifth draft of a Guide for General Principles of Human Action Reliability Analysis for Nuclear Power Generating Stations, for approval of NPEC. A guide is the least mandating in the IEEE hierarchy of standards. The purpose is to enhance the performance of an human reliability analysis (HRA) as a part of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to assure reproducible results, and to standardize documentation. The guide does not recommend or even discuss specific techniques, which are too rapidly evolving today. Considerable maturation in the analysis of human reliability in a PRA context has taken place in recent years. The IEEE guide on this subject is an initial step toward bringing HRA out of the research and development arena into the toolbox of standard engineering practices

  11. Reliability analysis of the reactor protection system with fault diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, D.Y.; Han, J.B.; Lyou, J.

    2004-01-01

    The main function of a reactor protection system (RPS) is to maintain the reactor core integrity and reactor coolant system pressure boundary. The RPS consists of the 2-out-of-m redundant architecture to assure a reliable operation. The system reliability of the RPS is a very important factor for the probability safety assessment (PSA) evaluation in the nuclear field. To evaluate the system failure rate of the k-out-of-m redundant system is not so easy with the deterministic method. In this paper, the reliability analysis method using the binomial process is suggested to calculate the failure rate of the RPS system with a fault diagnosis function. The suggested method is compared with the result of the Markov process to verify the validation of the suggested method, and applied to the several kinds of RPS architectures for a comparative evaluation of the reliability. (orig.)

  12. Reliability Analysis of Wireless Sensor Networks Using Markovian Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Zhu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates reliability analysis of wireless sensor networks whose topology is switching among possible connections which are governed by a Markovian chain. We give the quantized relations between network topology, data acquisition rate, nodes' calculation ability, and network reliability. By applying Lyapunov method, sufficient conditions of network reliability are proposed for such topology switching networks with constant or varying data acquisition rate. With the conditions satisfied, the quantity of data transported over wireless network node will not exceed node capacity such that reliability is ensured. Our theoretical work helps to provide a deeper understanding of real-world wireless sensor networks, which may find its application in the fields of network design and topology control.

  13. Social cost-benefit analysis and nuclear futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearce, D.W.

    1979-01-01

    The usefulness of cost-benefit analysis in making nuclear power investment decisions is considered. The essence of social cost-benefit analysis is outlined and shown to be unavoidably value-laden. As a case study six issues relevant to the decision to build on oxide fuel reprocessing plant (THORP) are examined. The potential practical value of using cost-benefit analysis as an aid to decision-making is considered for each of these issues. It is concluded that cost-benefit approach is of limited value in the nuclear power case because of its inapplicability to such issues as the liberty of the individual and nuclear weapons proliferation. (author)

  14. Reliability of the Emergency Severity Index: Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Mirhaghi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Although triage systems based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI have many advantages in terms of simplicity and clarity, previous research has questioned their reliability in practice. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the reliability of ESI triage scales. Methods: This metaanalysis was performed in March 2014. Electronic research databases were searched and articles conforming to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies were selected. Two researchers independently examined selected abstracts. Data were extracted in the following categories: version of scale (latest/older, participants (adult/paediatric, raters (nurse, physician or expert, method of reliability (intra/inter-rater, reliability statistics (weighted/unweighted kappa and the origin and publication year of the study. The effect size was obtained by the Z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models and a meta-regression was performed based on the method of moments estimator. Results: A total of 19 studies from six countries were included in the analysis. The pooled coefficient for the ESI triage scales was substantial at 0.791 (95% confidence interval: 0.787‒0.795. Agreement was higher with the latest and adult versions of the scale and among expert raters, compared to agreement with older and paediatric versions of the scales and with other groups of raters, respectively. Conclusion: ESI triage scales showed an acceptable level of overall reliability. However, ESI scales require more development in order to see full agreement from all rater groups. Further studies concentrating on other aspects of reliability assessment are needed.

  15. The validity and reliability of the exercise benefits/barriers scale for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The exercise barrier subscale with the lowest score was “exercise milieu”. Determining the benefits of and barriers to exercise, by using a standardized scale, plays an important role in maintaining proper levels of physical activity. The Turkish translation of the EBBS model has shown it to be an effective tool for measuring ...

  16. Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

    2013-01-01

    Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

  17. Cost-benefit analysis and non-utilitarian ethics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lowry, R.J.; Peterson, M.B.

    2012-01-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is commonly understood to be intimately connected with utilitarianism and incompatible with other moral theories, particularly those that focus on deontological concepts such as rights. We reject this claim and argue that cost-benefit analysis can take moral rights as well as

  18. How (not) to Lie with Benefit-Cost Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Scott Farrow

    2013-01-01

    Benefit-cost analysis is seen by some as a controversial activity in which the analyst can significantly bias the results. This note highlights some of the ways that analysts can "lie" in a benefit-cost analysis but more importantly, provides guidance on how not to lie and how to better inform public decisionmakers.

  19. Sealing versus Nonsealing: Cost-benefit analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anshula N Deshpande

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dental caries still remains the second most prevalent disease after common cold, out of which occlusal caries is the most profound one. In India, more than 40% of children are found to be affected by dental caries. Occlusal surfaces of the teeth are most susceptible sites for caries development due to their morphology. They are least benefited from fluoride application. Various efforts have been made by the preventive means to decline the rate of caries, one of which being sealant application. Sealants have come into existence long back since 1971 when first pit and fissure sealant Nuva-Caulk came into existence. There have been piles of literature stating the benefits that arrive from sealing the teeth. However, one crucial point that is being missed most of the times is the cost-effectiveness of the sealant. There are various schools of thoughts, regarding this that is controversial ones. Some of the analysts believe that always sealing may be a bit costlier, but it reduces subsequent dental treatments and hence saves money as well as time. However, some believe that why to unnecessarily seal the teeth in all cases even when the child is not at a risk to develop caries. Hence, we need to foresee both the sides of equation. For best clinical practice and decision-making, we need to have a balance of best evidence, clinical judgment, and the most important, patient needs and preferences.

  20. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  1. Reliability-Based Robustness Analysis for a Croatian Sports Hall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a probabilistic approach for structural robustness assessment for a timber structure built a few years ago. The robustness analysis is based on a structural reliability based framework for robustness and a simplified mechanical system modelling of a timber truss system....... A complex timber structure with a large number of failure modes is modelled with only a few dominant failure modes. First, a component based robustness analysis is performed based on the reliability indices of the remaining elements after the removal of selected critical elements. The robustness...... is expressed and evaluated by a robustness index. Next, the robustness is assessed using system reliability indices where the probabilistic failure model is modelled by a series system of parallel systems....

  2. Distribution System Reliability Analysis for Smart Grid Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aljohani, Tawfiq Masad

    Reliability of power systems is a key aspect in modern power system planning, design, and operation. The ascendance of the smart grid concept has provided high hopes of developing an intelligent network that is capable of being a self-healing grid, offering the ability to overcome the interruption problems that face the utility and cost it tens of millions in repair and loss. To address its reliability concerns, the power utilities and interested parties have spent extensive amount of time and effort to analyze and study the reliability of the generation and transmission sectors of the power grid. Only recently has attention shifted to be focused on improving the reliability of the distribution network, the connection joint between the power providers and the consumers where most of the electricity problems occur. In this work, we will examine the effect of the smart grid applications in improving the reliability of the power distribution networks. The test system used in conducting this thesis is the IEEE 34 node test feeder, released in 2003 by the Distribution System Analysis Subcommittee of the IEEE Power Engineering Society. The objective is to analyze the feeder for the optimal placement of the automatic switching devices and quantify their proper installation based on the performance of the distribution system. The measures will be the changes in the reliability system indices including SAIDI, SAIFI, and EUE. The goal is to design and simulate the effect of the installation of the Distributed Generators (DGs) on the utility's distribution system and measure the potential improvement of its reliability. The software used in this work is DISREL, which is intelligent power distribution software that is developed by General Reliability Co.

  3. Structural reliability analysis based on the cokriging technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Wei; Wang Wei; Dai Hongzhe; Xue Guofeng

    2010-01-01

    Approximation methods are widely used in structural reliability analysis because they are simple to create and provide explicit functional relationships between the responses and variables in stead of the implicit limit state function. Recently, the kriging method which is a semi-parameter interpolation technique that can be used for deterministic optimization and structural reliability has gained popularity. However, to fully exploit the kriging method, especially in high-dimensional problems, a large number of sample points should be generated to fill the design space and this can be very expensive and even impractical in practical engineering analysis. Therefore, in this paper, a new method-the cokriging method, which is an extension of kriging, is proposed to calculate the structural reliability. cokriging approximation incorporates secondary information such as the values of the gradients of the function being approximated. This paper explores the use of the cokriging method for structural reliability problems by comparing it with the Kriging method based on some numerical examples. The results indicate that the cokriging procedure described in this work can generate approximation models to improve on the accuracy and efficiency for structural reliability problems and is a viable alternative to the kriging.

  4. Reliability analysis - systematic approach based on limited data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourne, A.J.

    1975-11-01

    The initial approaches required for reliability analysis are outlined. These approaches highlight the system boundaries, examine the conditions under which the system is required to operate, and define the overall performance requirements. The discussion is illustrated by a simple example of an automatic protective system for a nuclear reactor. It is then shown how the initial approach leads to a method of defining the system, establishing performance parameters of interest and determining the general form of reliability models to be used. The overall system model and the availability of reliability data at the system level are next examined. An iterative process is then described whereby the reliability model and data requirements are systematically refined at progressively lower hierarchic levels of the system. At each stage, the approach is illustrated with examples from the protective system previously described. The main advantages of the approach put forward are the systematic process of analysis, the concentration of assessment effort in the critical areas and the maximum use of limited reliability data. (author)

  5. DATMAN: A reliability data analysis program using Bayesian updating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, M.; Feltus, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    Preventive maintenance (PM) techniques focus on the prevention of failures, in particular, system components that are important to plant functions. Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) improves on the PM techniques by introducing a set of guidelines by which to evaluate the system functions. It also minimizes intrusive maintenance, labor, and equipment downtime without sacrificing system performance when its function is essential for plant safety. Both the PM and RCM approaches require that system reliability data be updated as more component failures and operation time are acquired. Systems reliability and the likelihood of component failures can be calculated by Bayesian statistical methods, which can update these data. The DATMAN computer code has been developed at Penn State to simplify the Bayesian analysis by performing tedious calculations needed for RCM reliability analysis. DATMAN reads data for updating, fits a distribution that best fits the data, and calculates component reliability. DATMAN provides a user-friendly interface menu that allows the user to choose from several common prior and posterior distributions, insert new failure data, and visually select the distribution that matches the data most accurately

  6. Human reliability analysis of Lingao Nuclear Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Li; Huang Shudong; Yang Hong; He Aiwu; Huang Xiangrui; Zheng Tao; Su Shengbing; Xi Haiying

    2001-01-01

    The necessity of human reliability analysis (HRA) of Lingao Nuclear Power Station are analyzed, and the method and operation procedures of HRA is briefed. One of the human factors events (HFE) is analyzed in detail and some questions of HRA are discussed. The authors present the analytical results of 61 HFEs, and make a brief introduction of HRA contribution to Lingao Nuclear Power Station

  7. System Reliability Analysis Capability and Surrogate Model Application in RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Huang, Dongli [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gleicher, Frederick [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Wang, Bei [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Adbel-Khalik, Hany S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-11-01

    This report collect the effort performed to improve the reliability analysis capabilities of the RAVEN code and explore new opportunity in the usage of surrogate model by extending the current RAVEN capabilities to multi physics surrogate models and construction of surrogate models for high dimensionality fields.

  8. Factorial validation and reliability analysis of the brain fag syndrome ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Results: Two valid factors emerged with items 1-3 and items 4, 5 & 7 loading on respectively, making the BFSS a twodimensional (multidimensional) scale which measures 2 aspects of brain fag [labeled burning sensation and crawling sensation respectively]. The reliability analysis yielded a Cronbach Alpha coefficient of ...

  9. Costs and benefits of railway urban logistics: a prospective social cost benefit analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a general framework to assess urban rail logistics suitability via a socio-economic cost benefit analysis. Firstly, we propose an overview on the basic notions of CBA and SCBA. Secondly, we identify and present the main types of costs and benefits or railway urban logistics services and the related final delivery services using low emission road vehicles to serve customers where the rail systems cannot. Thirdly, as an example of application, we propose to assess a scenario...

  10. Science Based Human Reliability Analysis: Using Digital Nuclear Power Plant Simulators for Human Reliability Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth

    Nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators are proliferating in academic research institutions and national laboratories in response to the availability of affordable, digital simulator platforms. Accompanying the new research facilities is a renewed interest in using data collected in NPP simulators for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) research. An experiment conducted in The Ohio State University (OSU) NPP Simulator Facility develops data collection methods and analytical tools to improve use of simulator data in HRA. In the pilot experiment, student operators respond to design basis accidents in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility. Thirty-three undergraduate and graduate engineering students participated in the research. Following each accident scenario, student operators completed a survey about perceived simulator biases and watched a video of the scenario. During the video, they periodically recorded their perceived strength of significant Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) such as Stress. This dissertation reviews three aspects of simulator-based research using the data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility: First, a qualitative comparison of student operator performance to computer simulations of expected operator performance generated by the Information Decision Action Crew (IDAC) HRA method. Areas of comparison include procedure steps, timing of operator actions, and PSFs. Second, development of a quantitative model of the simulator bias introduced by the simulator environment. Two types of bias are defined: Environmental Bias and Motivational Bias. This research examines Motivational Bias--that is, the effect of the simulator environment on an operator's motivations, goals, and priorities. A bias causal map is introduced to model motivational bias interactions in the OSU experiment. Data collected in the OSU NPP Simulator Facility are analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Data include crew characteristics, operator surveys, and time to recognize

  11. A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, B.; Xie, M.

    2000-01-01

    Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated

  12. Nurse manager succession planning: A cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Tracy; Evans, Jennifer L; Tooley, Stephanie; Shirey, Maria R

    2018-03-01

    This commentary presents a cost-benefit analysis to advocate for the use of succession planning to mitigate the problems ensuing from nurse manager turnover. An estimated 75% of nurse managers will leave the workforce by 2020. Many benefits are associated with proactively identifying and developing internal candidates. Fewer than 7% of health care organisations have implemented formal leadership succession planning programmes. A cost-benefit analysis of a formal succession-planning programme from one hospital illustrates the benefits of the programme in their organisation and can be replicated easily. Assumptions of nursing manager succession planning cost-benefit analysis are identified and discussed. The succession planning exemplar demonstrates the integration of cost-benefit analysis principles. Comparing the costs of a formal nurse manager succession planning strategy with the status quo results in a positive cost-benefit ratio. The implementation of a formal nurse manager succession planning programme effectively reduces replacement costs and time to transition into the new role. This programme provides an internal pipeline of future leaders who will be more successful than external candidates. Using an actual cost-benefit analysis equips nurse managers with valuable evidence depicting succession planning as a viable business strategy. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Democratic Ideal

    OpenAIRE

    Karine Nyborg; Inger Spangen

    1997-01-01

    In traditional cost-benefit analyses of public projects, every citizen’s willingness to pay for a project is given an equal weight. This is sometimes taken to imply that cost-benefit analysis is a democratic method for making public decisions, as opposed to, for example, political processes involving log-rolling and lobbying from interest groups. Politicians are frequently criticized for not putting enough emphasis on the cost-benefit analyses when making decisions. In this paper we discuss t...

  14. ZERBERUS - the code for reliability analysis of crack containing structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cizelj, L.; Riesch-Oppermann, H.

    1992-04-01

    Brief description of the First- and Second Order Reliability Methods, being the theoretical background of the code, is given. The code structure is described in detail, with special emphasis to the new application fields. The numerical example investigates failure probability of steam generator tubing affected by stress corrosion cracking. The changes necessary to accommodate this analysis within the ZERBERUS code are explained. Analysis results are compared to different Monte Carlo techniques. (orig./HP) [de

  15. The drawing effect: Evidence for reliable and robust memory benefits in free recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wammes, Jeffrey D; Meade, Melissa E; Fernandes, Myra A

    2016-01-01

    In 7 free-recall experiments, the benefit of creating drawings of to-be-remembered information relative to writing was examined as a mnemonic strategy. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants were presented with a list of words and were asked to either draw or write out each. Drawn words were better recalled than written. Experiments 3-5 showed that the memory boost provided by drawing could not be explained by elaborative encoding (deep level of processing, LoP), visual imagery, or picture superiority, respectively. In Experiment 6, we explored potential limitations of the drawing effect, by reducing encoding time and increasing list length. Drawing, relative to writing, still benefited memory despite these constraints. In Experiment 7, the drawing effect was significant even when encoding trial types were compared in pure lists between participants, inconsistent with a distinctiveness account. Together these experiments indicate that drawing enhances memory relative to writing, across settings, instructions, and alternate encoding strategies, both within- and between-participants, and that a deep LoP, visual imagery, or picture superiority, alone or collectively, are not sufficient to explain the observed effect. We propose that drawing improves memory by encouraging a seamless integration of semantic, visual, and motor aspects of a memory trace.

  16. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swain, A.D.

    1987-02-01

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs.

  17. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swain, A.D.

    1987-02-01

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs

  18. Maintenance management of railway infrastructures based on reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macchi, Marco; Garetti, Marco; Centrone, Domenico; Fumagalli, Luca; Piero Pavirani, Gian

    2012-01-01

    Railway infrastructure maintenance plays a crucial role for rail transport. It aims at guaranteeing safety of operations and availability of railway tracks and related equipment for traffic regulation. Moreover, it is one major cost for rail transport operations. Thus, the increased competition in traffic market is asking for maintenance improvement, aiming at the reduction of maintenance expenditures while keeping the safety of operations. This issue is addressed by the methodology presented in the paper. The first step of the methodology consists of a family-based approach for the equipment reliability analysis; its purpose is the identification of families of railway items which can be given the same reliability targets. The second step builds the reliability model of the railway system for identifying the most critical items, given a required service level for the transportation system. The two methods have been implemented and tested in practical case studies, in the context of Rete Ferroviaria Italiana, the Italian public limited company for railway transportation.

  19. Reliability Analysis of Free Jet Scour Below Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanqi Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Current formulas for calculating scour depth below of a free over fall are mostly deterministic in nature and do not adequately consider the uncertainties of various scouring parameters. A reliability-based assessment of scour, taking into account uncertainties of parameters and coefficients involved, should be performed. This paper studies the reliability of a dam foundation under the threat of scour. A model for calculating the reliability of scour and estimating the probability of failure of the dam foundation subjected to scour is presented. The Maximum Entropy Method is applied to construct the probability density function (PDF of the performance function subject to the moment constraints. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS is applied for uncertainty analysis. An example is considered, and there liability of its scour is computed, the influence of various random variables on the probability failure is analyzed.

  20. Cost benefit analysis for optimization of radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindell, B.

    1984-01-01

    ICRP recommends three basic principles for radiation protection. One is the justification of the source. Any use of radiation should be justified with regard to its benefit. The second is the optimization of radiation protection, i.e. all radiation exposure should be kept as low as resonably achievable. And the third principle is that there should be a limit for the radiation dose that any individual receives. Cost benefit assessment or cost benefit analysis is one tool to achieve the optimization, but the optimization is not identical with cost benefit analysis. Basically, in principle, the cost benefit analysis for the optimization of radiation protection is to find the minimum sum of the cost of protection and some cost of detriment. (Mori, K.)

  1. Analysis of the Reliability of the "Alternator- Alternator Belt" System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Mavrin

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Before starting and also during the exploitation of va1ioussystems, it is vety imp011ant to know how the system and itsparts will behave during operation regarding breakdowns, i.e.failures. It is possible to predict the service behaviour of a systemby determining the functions of reliability, as well as frequencyand intensity of failures.The paper considers the theoretical basics of the functionsof reliability, frequency and intensity of failures for the twomain approaches. One includes 6 equal intetvals and the other13 unequal intetvals for the concrete case taken from practice.The reliability of the "alternator- alternator belt" system installedin the buses, has been analysed, according to the empiricaldata on failures.The empitical data on failures provide empirical functionsof reliability and frequency and intensity of failures, that arepresented in tables and graphically. The first analysis perfO!med by dividing the mean time between failures into 6 equaltime intervals has given the forms of empirical functions of fa ilurefrequency and intensity that approximately cotTespond totypical functions. By dividing the failure phase into 13 unequalintetvals with two failures in each interval, these functions indicateexplicit transitions from early failure inte1val into the randomfailure interval, i.e. into the ageing intetval. Functions thusobtained are more accurate and represent a better solution forthe given case.In order to estimate reliability of these systems with greateraccuracy, a greater number of failures needs to be analysed.

  2. An exact method for solving logical loops in reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuoka, Takeshi

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an exact method for solving logical loops in reliability analysis. The systems that include logical loops are usually described by simultaneous Boolean equations. First, present a basic rule of solving simultaneous Boolean equations. Next, show the analysis procedures for three-component system with external supports. Third, more detailed discussions are given for the establishment of logical loop relation. Finally, take up two typical structures which include more than one logical loop. Their analysis results and corresponding GO-FLOW charts are given. The proposed analytical method is applicable to loop structures that can be described by simultaneous Boolean equations, and it is very useful in evaluating the reliability of complex engineering systems.

  3. Reliability analysis of service water system under earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Yu; Qian Xiaoming; Lu Xuefeng; Wang Shengfei; Niu Fenglei

    2013-01-01

    Service water system is one of the important safety systems in nuclear power plant, whose failure probability is always gained by system reliability analysis. The probability of equipment failure under the earthquake is the function of the peak acceleration of earthquake motion, while the occurrence of earthquake is of randomicity, thus the traditional fault tree method in current probability safety assessment is not powerful enough to deal with such case of conditional probability problem. An analysis frame was put forward for system reliability evaluation in seismic condition in this paper, in which Monte Carlo simulation was used to deal with conditional probability problem. Annual failure probability of service water system was calculated, and failure probability of 1.46X10 -4 per year was obtained. The analysis result is in accordance with the data which indicate equipment seismic resistance capability, and the rationality of the model is validated. (authors)

  4. A framework for intelligent reliability centered maintenance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Zhonghua; Jia Xisheng; Gao Ping; Wu Su; Wang Jianzhao

    2008-01-01

    To improve the efficiency of reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis, case-based reasoning (CBR), as a kind of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, was successfully introduced into RCM analysis process, and a framework for intelligent RCM analysis (IRCMA) was studied. The idea for IRCMA is based on the fact that the historical records of RCM analysis on similar items can be referenced and used for the current RCM analysis of a new item. Because many common or similar items may exist in the analyzed equipment, the repeated tasks of RCM analysis can be considerably simplified or avoided by revising the similar cases in conducting RCM analysis. Based on the previous theory studies, an intelligent RCM analysis system (IRCMAS) prototype was developed. This research has focused on the description of the definition, basic principles as well as a framework of IRCMA, and discussion of critical techniques in the IRCMA. Finally, IRCMAS prototype is presented based on a case study

  5. Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhaohui; Zhang Qin; Wang Kai; Luo Xiaobing; Liu Sheng

    2011-01-01

    A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 0 C/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing. (semiconductor devices)

  6. NREL Analysis Identifies Where Commercial Customers Might Benefit from

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battery Energy Storage | NREL | News | NREL NREL Analysis Identifies Where Commercial Customers Customers Might Benefit from Battery Energy Storage August 24, 2017 After upfront costs, batteries may reduce operating costs for customers paying demand charges Commercial electricity customers who are

  7. Reliability analysis of maintenance operations for railway tracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhayma, N.; Bressolette, Ph.; Breul, P.; Fogli, M.; Saussine, G.

    2013-01-01

    Railway engineering is confronted with problems due to degradation of the railway network that requires important and costly maintenance work. However, because of the lack of knowledge on the geometrical and mechanical parameters of the track, it is difficult to optimize the maintenance management. In this context, this paper presents a new methodology to analyze the behavior of railway tracks. It combines new diagnostic devices which permit to obtain an important amount of data and thus to make statistics on the geometric and mechanical parameters and a non-intrusive stochastic approach which can be coupled with any mechanical model. Numerical results show the possibilities of this methodology for reliability analysis of different maintenance operations. In the future this approach will give important informations to railway managers to optimize maintenance operations using a reliability analysis

  8. Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todinov, M T

    2006-04-01

    The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

  9. Solid Rocket Booster Large Main and Drogue Parachute Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, Courtenay B.; Hengel, John E.

    2009-01-01

    The parachutes on the Space Transportation System (STS) Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) are the means for decelerating the SRB and allowing it to impact the water at a nominal vertical velocity of 75 feet per second. Each SRB has one pilot, one drogue, and three main parachutes. About four minutes after SRB separation, the SRB nose cap is jettisoned, deploying the pilot parachute. The pilot chute then deploys the drogue parachute. The drogue chute provides initial deceleration and proper SRB orientation prior to frustum separation. At frustum separation, the drogue pulls the frustum from the SRB and allows the main parachutes that are mounted in the frustum to unpack and inflate. These chutes are retrieved, inspected, cleaned, repaired as needed, and returned to the flight inventory and reused. Over the course of the Shuttle Program, several improvements have been introduced to the SRB main parachutes. A major change was the replacement of the small (115 ft. diameter) main parachutes with the larger (136 ft. diameter) main parachutes. Other modifications were made to the main parachutes, main parachute support structure, and SRB frustum to eliminate failure mechanisms, improve damage tolerance, and improve deployment and inflation characteristics. This reliability analysis is limited to the examination of the SRB Large Main Parachute (LMP) and drogue parachute failure history to assess the reliability of these chutes. From the inventory analysis, 68 Large Main Parachutes were used in 651 deployments, and 7 chute failures occurred in the 651 deployments. Logistic regression was used to analyze the LMP failure history, and it showed that reliability growth has occurred over the period of use resulting in a current chute reliability of R = .9983. This result was then used to determine the reliability of the 3 LMPs on the SRB, when all must function. There are 29 drogue parachutes that were used in 244 deployments, and no in-flight failures have occurred. Since there are no

  10. Inclusion of task dependence in human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Xiaoyan; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Xu, Peida; Deng, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important issue, which includes the evaluation of the dependence among human tasks and the effect of the dependence on the final human error probability (HEP). This paper represents a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. The aim of the study is to automatically provide conclusions on the overall degree of dependence and calculate the conditional human error probability (CHEP) once the judgments of the input factors are given. The dependence influencing factors are first identified by the experts and the priorities of these factors are also taken into consideration. Anchors and qualitative labels are provided as guidance for the HRA analyst's judgment of the input factors. The overall degree of dependence between human failure events is calculated based on the input values and the weights of the input factors. Finally, the CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) method. The proposed method is able to quantify the subjective judgment from the experts and improve the transparency in the HEP evaluation process. Two examples are illustrated to show the effectiveness and the flexibility of the proposed method. - Highlights: • We propose a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. • The priorities of the dependence influencing factors are taken into consideration. • The overall dependence degree is determined by input judgments and the weights of factors. • The CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from THERP

  11. High-Reliable PLC RTOS Development and RPS Structure Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohn, H. S.; Song, D. Y.; Sohn, D. S.; Kim, J. H. [Enersys Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-04-15

    One of the KNICS objectives is to develop a platform for Nuclear Power Plant(NPP) I and C(Instrumentation and Control) system, especially plant protection system. The developed platform is POSAFE-Q and this work supports the development of POSAFE-Q with the development of high-reliable real-time operating system(RTOS) and programmable logic device(PLD) software. Another KNICS objective is to develop safety I and C systems, such as Reactor Protection System(RPS) and Engineered Safety Feature-Component Control System(ESF-CCS). This work plays an important role in the structure analysis for RPS. Validation and verification(V and V) of the safety critical software is an essential work to make digital plant protection system highly reliable and safe. Generally, the reliability and safety of software based system can be improved by strict quality assurance framework including the software development itself. In other words, through V and V, the reliability and safety of a system can be improved and the development activities like software requirement specification, software design specification, component tests, integration tests, and system tests shall be appropriately documented for V and V.

  12. High-Reliable PLC RTOS Development and RPS Structure Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, H. S.; Song, D. Y.; Sohn, D. S.; Kim, J. H.

    2008-04-01

    One of the KNICS objectives is to develop a platform for Nuclear Power Plant(NPP) I and C(Instrumentation and Control) system, especially plant protection system. The developed platform is POSAFE-Q and this work supports the development of POSAFE-Q with the development of high-reliable real-time operating system(RTOS) and programmable logic device(PLD) software. Another KNICS objective is to develop safety I and C systems, such as Reactor Protection System(RPS) and Engineered Safety Feature-Component Control System(ESF-CCS). This work plays an important role in the structure analysis for RPS. Validation and verification(V and V) of the safety critical software is an essential work to make digital plant protection system highly reliable and safe. Generally, the reliability and safety of software based system can be improved by strict quality assurance framework including the software development itself. In other words, through V and V, the reliability and safety of a system can be improved and the development activities like software requirement specification, software design specification, component tests, integration tests, and system tests shall be appropriately documented for V and V.

  13. Reliability analysis with linguistic data: An evidential network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xiaoge; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Deng, Xinyang

    2017-01-01

    In practical applications of reliability assessment of a system in-service, information about the condition of a system and its components is often available in text form, e.g., inspection reports. Estimation of the system reliability from such text-based records becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a four-step framework to deal with this problem. In the first step, we construct an evidential network with the consideration of available knowledge and data. Secondly, we train a Naive Bayes text classification algorithm based on the past records. By using the trained Naive Bayes algorithm to classify the new records, we build interval basic probability assignments (BPA) for each new record available in text form. Thirdly, we combine the interval BPAs of multiple new records using an evidence combination approach based on evidence theory. Finally, we propagate the interval BPA through the evidential network constructed earlier to obtain the system reliability. Two numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) results. - Highlights: • We model reliability analysis with linguistic data using evidential network. • Two examples are used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method. • We compare the results with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS).

  14. Reliability analysis for new technology-based transmitters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brissaud, Florent, E-mail: florent.brissaud.2007@utt.f [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and STMR UMR CNRS 6279, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe [Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and STMR UMR CNRS 6279, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Charpentier, Dominique [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France)

    2011-02-15

    The reliability analysis of new technology-based transmitters has to deal with specific issues: various interactions between both material elements and functions, undefined behaviours under faulty conditions, several transmitted data, and little reliability feedback. To handle these particularities, a '3-step' model is proposed, based on goal tree-success tree (GTST) approaches to represent both the functional and material aspects, and includes the faults and failures as a third part for supporting reliability analyses. The behavioural aspects are provided by relationship matrices, also denoted master logic diagrams (MLD), with stochastic values which represent direct relationships between system elements. Relationship analyses are then proposed to assess the effect of any fault or failure on any material element or function. Taking these relationships into account, the probabilities of malfunction and failure modes are evaluated according to time. Furthermore, uncertainty analyses tend to show that even if the input data and system behaviour are not well known, these previous results can be obtained in a relatively precise way. An illustration is provided by a case study on an infrared gas transmitter. These properties make the proposed model and corresponding reliability analyses especially suitable for intelligent transmitters (or 'smart sensors').

  15. Some developments in human reliability analysis approaches and tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannaman, G W; Worledge, D H

    1988-01-01

    Since human actions have been recognized as an important contributor to safety of operating plants in most industries, research has been performed to better understand and account for the way operators interact during accidents through the control room and equipment interface. This paper describes the integration of a series of research projects sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute to strengthen the methods for performing the human reliability analysis portion of the probabilistic safety studies. It focuses on the analytical framework used to guide the analysis, the development of the models for quantifying time-dependent actions, and simulator experiments used to validate the models.

  16. ANALYSIS OF AVAILABILITY AND RELIABILITY IN RHIC OPERATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    PILAT, F.; INGRASSIA, P.; MICHNOFF, R.

    2006-01-01

    RHIC has been successfully operated for 5 years as a collider for different species, ranging from heavy ions including gold and copper, to polarized protons. We present a critical analysis of reliability data for RHIC that not only identifies the principal factors limiting availability but also evaluates critical choices at design times and assess their impact on present machine performance. RHIC availability data are typical when compared to similar high-energy colliders. The critical analysis of operations data is the basis for studies and plans to improve RHIC machine availability beyond the 50-60% typical of high-energy colliders

  17. A comparative reliability analysis of free-piston Stirling machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiber, Jeffrey G.

    2001-02-01

    A free-piston Stirling power convertor is being developed for use in an advanced radioisotope power system to provide electric power for NASA deep space missions. These missions are typically long lived, lasting for up to 14 years. The Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for providing the radioisotope power system for the NASA missions, and has managed the development of the free-piston power convertor for this application. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been involved in the development of Stirling power conversion technology for over 25 years and is currently providing support to DOE. Due to the nature of the potential missions, long life and high reliability are important features for the power system. Substantial resources have been spent on the development of long life Stirling cryocoolers for space applications. As a very general statement, free-piston Stirling power convertors have many features in common with free-piston Stirling cryocoolers, however there are also significant differences. For example, designs exist for both power convertors and cryocoolers that use the flexure bearing support system to provide noncontacting operation of the close-clearance moving parts. This technology and the operating experience derived from one application may be readily applied to the other application. This similarity does not pertain in the case of outgassing and contamination. In the cryocooler, the contaminants normally condense in the critical heat exchangers and foul the performance. In the Stirling power convertor just the opposite is true as contaminants condense on non-critical surfaces. A methodology was recently published that provides a relative comparison of reliability, and is applicable to systems. The methodology has been applied to compare the reliability of a Stirling cryocooler relative to that of a free-piston Stirling power convertor. The reliability analysis indicates that the power convertor should be able to have superior reliability

  18. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  19. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  20. Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizutani, M.; Fukushima, S.; Akao, Y.; Katukura, H.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)

  1. Interrater reliability of videotaped observational gait-analysis assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastlack, M E; Arvidson, J; Snyder-Mackler, L; Danoff, J V; McGarvey, C L

    1991-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the interrater reliability of videotaped observational gait-analysis (VOGA) assessments. Fifty-four licensed physical therapists with varying amounts of clinical experience served as raters. Three patients with rheumatoid arthritis who demonstrated an abnormal gait pattern served as subjects for the videotape. The raters analyzed each patient's most severely involved knee during the four subphases of stance for the kinematic variables of knee flexion and genu valgum. Raters were asked to determine whether these variables were inadequate, normal, or excessive. The temporospatial variables analyzed throughout the entire gait cycle were cadence, step length, stride length, stance time, and step width. Generalized kappa coefficients ranged from .11 to .52. Intraclass correlation coefficients (2,1) and (3,1) were slightly higher. Our results indicate that physical therapists' VOGA assessments are only slightly to moderately reliable and that improved interrater reliability of the assessments of physical therapists utilizing this technique is needed. Our data suggest that there is a need for greater standardization of gait-analysis training.

  2. Modeling and Analysis of Component Faults and Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Olsen, Petur; Ravn, Anders Peter

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets that are automati......This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets...... that are automatically generated. The stochastic information on the faults is used to estimate the reliability of the fault affected system. The reliability is given with respect to properties of the system state space. We illustrate the process on a concrete example using the Uppaal model checker for validating...... the ideal system model and the fault modeling. Then the statistical version of the tool, UppaalSMC, is used to find reliability estimates....

  3. A Cost Benefit Analysis of an Active Travel Intervention with Health and Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grams, Mark; Witten, Karen; Woodward, Alistair

    2018-01-01

    Active travel (walking and cycling) is beneficial for people’s health and has many co-benefits, such as reducing motor vehicle congestion and pollution in urban areas. There have been few robust evaluations of active travel, and very few studies have valued health and emissions outcomes. The ACTIVE before-and-after quasi-experimental study estimated the net benefits of health and other outcomes from New Zealand’s Model Communities Programme using an empirical analysis comparing two intervention cities with two control cities. The Programme funded investment in cycle paths, other walking and cycling facilities, cycle parking, ‘shared spaces’, media campaigns and events, such as ‘Share the Road’, and cycle-skills training. Using the modified Integrated Transport and Health Impacts Model, the Programme’s net economic benefits were estimated from the changes in use of active travel modes. Annual benefits for health in the intervention cities were estimated at 34.4 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and two lives saved due to reductions in cardiac disease, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory disease. Reductions in transport-related carbon emissions were also estimated and valued. Using a discount rate of 3.5%, the estimated benefit/cost ratio was 11:1 and was robust to sensitivity testing. It is concluded that when concerted investment is made in active travel in a city, there is likely to be a measurable, positive return on investment. PMID:29751618

  4. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Damage tolerance reliability analysis of automotive spot-welded joints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ni Kan

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a damage tolerance reliability analysis methodology for automotive spot-welded joints under multi-axial and variable amplitude loading history. The total fatigue life of a spot weld is divided into two parts, crack initiation and crack propagation. The multi-axial loading history is obtained from transient response finite element analysis of a vehicle model. A three-dimensional finite element model of a simplified joint with four spot welds is developed for static stress/strain analysis. A probabilistic Miner's rule is combined with a randomized strain-life curve family and the stress/strain analysis result to develop a strain-based probabilistic fatigue crack initiation life prediction for spot welds. Afterwards, the fatigue crack inside the base material sheet is modeled as a surface crack. Then a probabilistic crack growth model is combined with the stress analysis result to develop a probabilistic fatigue crack growth life prediction for spot welds. Both methods are implemented with MSC/NASTRAN and MSC/FATIGUE software, and are useful for reliability assessment of automotive spot-welded joints against fatigue and fracture

  6. To transfer or not to transfer? Evidence from validity and reliability tests for international transfers of non-market adaptation benefits in river basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    The attempt to design cost-effective adaptation policies incorporating non-market values to inhibit climate change impacts on water resources may increase the interest in applying the Benefit Transfer method. Benefit Transfer is a practical way to consider non-market values using functions and estimates acquired through primary valuation methods from other sites. Among the primary methods, Choice Experiments appear to particularly accommodate Benefit Transfer. Nevertheless, validity and reliability of international value transfers obtained from Choice Experiments have not been adequately examined. To this end, two identical Choice Experiments were conducted in Greece and Italy in the context of river services adaptation, testing validity and reliability of Benefit Transfer. The application of validity and reliability tests for different types of transfers is supportive for the use of Benefit Transfer, at least for the value transfer types. In particular the reliability of value transfer was higher when income adjustments were taken into account. Overall, Benefit Transfer can be attentively considered to evaluate cost-effective adaptation policies across countries experiencing similar climate change trends. The latter gains more importance given that an international Benefit Transfer setting as regards the non-market benefits of adaptation to climate change for river services is absent in the relevant literature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Reliability analysis of offshore structures using OMA based fatigue stresses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silva Nabuco, Bruna; Aissani, Amina; Glindtvad Tarpø, Marius

    2017-01-01

    focus is on the uncertainty observed on the different stresses used to predict the damage. This uncertainty can be reduced by Modal Based Fatigue Monitoring which is a technique based on continuously measuring of the accelerations in few points of the structure with the use of accelerometers known...... points of the structure, the stress history can be calculated in any arbitrary point of the structure. The accuracy of the estimated actual stress is analyzed by experimental tests on a scale model where the obtained stresses are compared to strain gauges measurements. After evaluating the fatigue...... stresses directly from the operational response of the structure, a reliability analysis is performed in order to estimate the reliability of using Modal Based Fatigue Monitoring for long term fatigue studies....

  8. Reliability analysis of neutron flux monitoring system for PFBR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajesh, M.G.; Bhatnagar, P.V.; Das, D.; Pithawa, C.K.; Vinod, Gopika; Rao, V.V.S.S.

    2010-01-01

    The Neutron Flux Monitoring System (NFMS) measures reactor power, rate of change of power and reactivity changes in the core in all states of operation and shutdown. The system consists of instrument channels that are designed and built to have high reliability. All channels are required to have a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of 150000 hours minimum. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and failure rate estimation of NFMS channels has been carried out. FMEA is carried out in compliance with MIL-STD-338B. Reliability estimation of the channels is done according to MIL-HDBK-217FN2. Paper discusses the methodology followed for FMEA and failure rate estimation of two safety channels and results. (author)

  9. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods: A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald L.; Hendrickson, Stacey M.L.; Forester, John A.; Tran, Tuan Q.; Lois, Erasmia

    2010-01-01

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study comparing and evaluating HRA methods in assessing operator performance in simulator experiments is currently underway. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies is presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  10. Photovoltaic module reliability improvement through application testing and failure analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, L. N.; Shumka, A.

    1982-01-01

    During the first four years of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Photovoltatic Program, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Low-Cost Solar Array (LSA) Project purchased about 400 kW of photovoltaic modules for test and experiments. In order to identify, report, and analyze test and operational problems with the Block Procurement modules, a problem/failure reporting and analysis system was implemented by the LSA Project with the main purpose of providing manufacturers with feedback from test and field experience needed for the improvement of product performance and reliability. A description of the more significant types of failures is presented, taking into account interconnects, cracked cells, dielectric breakdown, delamination, and corrosion. Current design practices and reliability evaluations are also discussed. The conducted evaluation indicates that current module designs incorporate damage-resistant and fault-tolerant features which address field failure mechanisms observed to date.

  11. Mechanical Properties for Reliability Analysis of Structures in Glassy Carbon

    CERN Document Server

    Garion, Cédric

    2014-01-01

    Despite its good physical properties, the glassy carbon material is not widely used, especially for structural applications. Nevertheless, its transparency to particles and temperature resistance are interesting properties for the applications to vacuum chambers and components in high energy physics. For example, it has been proposed for fast shutter valve in particle accelerator [1] [2]. The mechanical properties have to be carefully determined to assess the reliability of structures in such a material. In this paper, mechanical tests have been carried out to determine the elastic parameters, the strength and toughness on commercial grades. A statistical approach, based on the Weibull’s distribution, is used to characterize the material both in tension and compression. The results are compared to the literature and the difference of properties for these two loading cases is shown. Based on a Finite Element analysis, a statistical approach is applied to define the reliability of a structural component in gl...

  12. User's manual of a support system for human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokobayashi, Masao; Tamura, Kazuo.

    1995-10-01

    Many kinds of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been developed. However, users are required to be skillful so as to use them, and also required complicated works such as drawing event tree (ET) and calculation of uncertainty bounds. Moreover, each method is not so complete that only one method of them is not enough to evaluate human reliability. Therefore, a personal computer (PC) based support system for HRA has been developed to execute HRA practically and efficiently. The system consists of two methods, namely, simple method and detailed one. The former uses ASEP that is a simplified THERP-technique, and combined method of OAT and HRA-ET/DeBDA is used for the latter. Users can select a suitable method for their purpose. Human error probability (HEP) data were collected and a database of them was built to use for the support system. This paper describes outline of the HRA methods, support functions and user's guide of the system. (author)

  13. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lois, Erasmia (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission); Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt; Boring, Ronald L. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID)

    2008-04-01

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  14. Review of the treat upgrade reactor scram system reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, D.F.; Fussell, J.B.; Krois, P.A.; Morelock, T.C.; Knee, H.E.; Manning, J.J.; Haas, P.M.; West, K.W.

    1984-10-01

    In order to resolve some key LMFBR safety issues, ANL personnel are modifying the TREAT reactor to handle much larger experiments. As a result of these modifications, the upgraded Treat reactor will not always operate in a self-limited mode. During certain experiments in the upgraded TREAT reactor, it is possible that the fuel could be damaged by overheating if, once the computer systems fail, the reactor scram system (RSS) fails on demand. To help ensure that the upgraded TREAT reactor is shut down when required, ANL personnel have designed a triply redundant RSS for the facility. The RSS is designed to meet three reliability goals: (1) a loss of capability failure probability of 10 -9 /demand (independent failures only); (2) an inadvertent shutdown probability of 10 -3 /experiment; and (3) protection agaist any known potential common cause failures. According to ANL's reliability analysis of the RSS, this system substantially meets these goals

  15. Combined multi-criteria and cost-benefit analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld

    1996-01-01

    The paper is an introduction to both theory and application of combined Cost-Benefit and Multi-Criteria Analysis. The first section is devoted to basic utility theory and its practical application in Cost-Benefit Analysis. Based on some of the problems encountered, arguments in favour...... of the application of utility-based Multi-Criteria Analyses methods as an extension and refinement of the traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis are provided. The theory presented in this paper is closely related the methods used in the WARP software (Leleur & Jensen, 1989). The presentation is however wider in scope.......The second section introduces the stated preference methodology used in WARP to create weight profiles for project pool sensitivity analysis. This section includes a simple example. The third section discusses how decision makers can get a priori aid to make their pair-wise comparisons based on project pool...

  16. Regulatory analysis for the resolution of Generic Issue 115, enhancement of the reliability of the Westinghouse Solid State Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basdekas, D.L.

    1989-05-01

    Generic Issue 115 addresses a concern related to the reliability of the Westinghouse reactor protection system for plants using the Westinghouse Solid State Protection System (SSPS). Several options for improving the reliability of the Westinghouse reactor trip function for these plants and their effect on core damage frequency (CDF) and overall risk were evaluated. This regulatory analysis includes a quantitative assessment of the costs and benefits associated with the various options for enhancing the reliability of the Westinghouse SSPS and provides insights for consideration and industry initiatives. No new regulatory requirements are proposed. 25 refs., 11 tabs

  17. Reliability Analysis of the CERN Radiation Monitoring Electronic System CROME

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2126870

    For the new in-house developed CERN Radiation Monitoring Electronic System (CROME) a reliability analysis is necessary to ensure compliance with the statu-tory requirements regarding the Safety Integrity Level. The required Safety Integrity Level by IEC 60532 standard is SIL 2 (for the Safety Integrated Functions Measurement, Alarm Triggering and Interlock Triggering). The first step of the reliability analysis was a system and functional analysis which served as basis for the implementation of the CROME system in the software “Iso-graph”. In the “Prediction” module of Isograph the failure rates of all components were calculated. Failure rates for passive components were calculated by the Military Standard 217 and failure rates for active components were obtained from lifetime tests by the manufacturers. The FMEA was carried out together with the board designers and implemented in the “FMECA” module of Isograph. The FMEA served as basis for the Fault Tree Analysis and the detection of weak points...

  18. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.

    1985-01-01

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  19. Probabilistic economic analysis of green roof benefits for policy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, C.; Adriaens, P.; Talbot, B.

    2006-01-01

    The installation costs of green roofs continue to deter widespread use of green roof technology. Analyses of the boundary conditions for the cost differential between a green roof and a conventional roof are usually compared to environmental benefits such as storm water reduction and building energy savings. However, evidence is emerging that green roofs may play a role in urban air quality improvement. This paper discussed a methodology for developing probabilistic ranges of benefits and cost analyses. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to prepare a generalized cost-benefit analysis for application to a range of green roof projects. Environmental benefits of roof greening were quantified on a per unit surface area to assess environmental impact at the building scale. Parameters included conventional and green roof installation costs; storm water fees and fee reductions for green roofs; energy costs due to heat flux and the resultant savings through the installation of a green roof and the additional economic valuation of the public health benefits due to air pollution mitigation. Results were then integrated into an economic model to determine the length of time required for a return on investment in a green roof, assuming that a traditional roof would require replacement after 20 years. A net present value analysis was performed for an average-sized university roof. Results of the study showed that a valuation of environmental benefits can reduce the time required for a return on investment in a moderately priced green roof. While reduced installation costs reduced the time required for a return on investment, optimizing the green roof system for maximum environmental benefit had a greater potential to provide a higher return. It was concluded that the benefit of improved air quality should not be ignored by green roof policy-makers as a valuation tool. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig

  20. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  1. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Joe, Jeffrey; Smith, Curtis; Groth, Katrina

    2015-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  2. Limitations in simulator time-based human reliability analysis methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wreathall, J.

    1989-01-01

    Developments in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have evolved slowly. Current methods are little changed from those of almost a decade ago, particularly in the use of time-reliability relationships. While these methods were suitable as an interim step, the time (and the need) has come to specify the next evolution of HRA methods. As with any performance-oriented data source, power plant simulator data have no direct connection to HRA models. Errors reported in data are normal deficiencies observed in human performance; failures are events modeled in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Not all errors cause failures; not all failures are caused by errors. Second, the times at which actions are taken provide no measure of the likelihood of failures to act correctly within an accident scenario. Inferences can be made about human reliability, but they must be made with great care. Specific limitations are discussed. Simulator performance data are useful in providing qualitative evidence of the variety of error types and their potential influences on operating systems. More work is required to combine recent developments in the psychology of error with the qualitative data collected at stimulators. Until data become openly available, however, such an advance will not be practical

  3. The DYLAM approach for the dynamic reliability analysis of systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cojazzi, Giacomo

    1996-01-01

    In many real systems, failures occurring to the components, control failures and human interventions often interact with the physical system evolution in such a way that a simple reliability analysis, de-coupled from process dynamics, is very difficult or even impossible. In the last ten years many dynamic reliability approaches have been proposed to properly assess the reliability of these systems characterized by dynamic interactions. The DYLAM methodology, now implemented in its latest version, DYLAM-3, offers a powerful tool for integrating deterministic and failure events. This paper describes the main features of the DYLAM-3 code with reference to the classic fault-tree and event-tree techniques. Some aspects connected to the practical problems underlying dynamic event-trees are also discussed. A simple system, already analyzed with other dynamic methods is used as a reference for the numerical applications. The same system is also studied with a time-dependent fault-tree approach in order to show some features of dynamic methods vs classical techniques. Examples including stochastic failures, without and with repair, failures on demand and time dependent failure rates give an extensive overview of DYLAM-3 capabilities

  4. Reliability analysis of self-actuated shutdown system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itooka, S.; Kumasaka, K.; Okabe, A.; Satoh, K.; Tsukui, Y.

    1991-01-01

    An analytical study was performed for the reliability of a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) under the unprotected loss of flow (ULOF) event in a typical loop-type liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) by the use of the response surface Monte Carlo analysis method. Dominant parameters for the SASS, such as Curie point characteristics, subassembly outlet coolant temperature, electromagnetic surface condition, etc., were selected and their probability density functions (PDFs) were determined by the design study information and experimental data. To get the response surface function (RSF) for the maximum coolant temperature, transient analyses of ULOF were performed by utilizing the experimental design method in the determination of analytical cases. Then, the RSF was derived by the multi-variable regression analysis. The unreliability of the SASS was evaluated as a probability that the maximum coolant temperature exceeded an acceptable level, employing the Monte Carlo calculation using the above PDFs and RSF. In this study, sensitivities to the dominant parameter were compared. The dispersion of subassembly outlet coolant temperature near the SASS-was found to be one of the most sensitive parameters. Fault tree analysis was performed using this value for the SASS in order to evaluate the shutdown system reliability. As a result of this study, the effectiveness of the SASS on the reliability improvement in the LMFBR shutdown system was analytically confirmed. This study has been performed as a part of joint research and development projects for DFBR under the sponsorship of the nine Japanese electric power companies, Electric Power Development Company and the Japan Atomic Power Company. (author)

  5. Failure and Reliability Analysis for the Master Pump Shutdown System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BEVINS, R.R.

    2000-01-01

    The Master Pump Shutdown System (MPSS) will be installed in the 200 Areas of the Hanford Site to monitor and control the transfer of liquid waste between tank farms and between the 200 West and 200 East areas through the Cross-Site Transfer Line. The Safety Function provided by the MPSS is to shutdown any waste transfer process within or between tank farms if a waste leak should occur along the selected transfer route. The MPSS, which provides this Safety Class Function, is composed of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs), interconnecting wires, relays, Human to Machine Interfaces (HMI), and software. These components are defined as providing a Safety Class Function and will be designated in this report as MPSS/PLC. Input signals to the MPSS/PLC are provided by leak detection systems from each of the tank farm leak detector locations along the waste transfer route. The combination of the MPSS/PLC, leak detection system, and transfer pump controller system will be referred to as MPSS/SYS. The components addressed in this analysis are associated with the MPSS/SYS. The purpose of this failure and reliability analysis is to address the following design issues of the Project Development Specification (PDS) for the MPSS/SYS (HNF 2000a): (1) Single Component Failure Criterion, (2) System Status Upon Loss of Electrical Power, (3) Physical Separation of Safety Class cables, (4) Physical Isolation of Safety Class Wiring from General Service Wiring, and (5) Meeting the MPSS/PLC Option 1b (RPP 1999) Reliability estimate. The failure and reliability analysis examined the system on a component level basis and identified any hardware or software elements that could fail and/or prevent the system from performing its intended safety function

  6. Fifty Years of THERP and Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    In 1962 at a Human Factors Society symposium, Alan Swain presented a paper introducing a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). This was followed in 1963 by a Sandia Laboratories monograph outlining basic human error quantification using THERP and, in 1964, by a special journal edition of Human Factors on quantification of human performance. Throughout the 1960s, Swain and his colleagues focused on collecting human performance data for the Sandia Human Error Rate Bank (SHERB), primarily in connection with supporting the reliability of nuclear weapons assembly in the US. In 1969, Swain met with Jens Rasmussen of Risø National Laboratory and discussed the applicability of THERP to nuclear power applications. By 1975, in WASH-1400, Swain had articulated the use of THERP for nuclear power applications, and the approach was finalized in the watershed publication of the NUREG/CR-1278 in 1983. THERP is now 50 years old, and remains the most well known and most widely used HRA method. In this paper, the author discusses the history of THERP, based on published reports and personal communication and interviews with Swain. The author also outlines the significance of THERP. The foundations of human reliability analysis are found in THERP: human failure events, task analysis, performance shaping factors, human error probabilities, dependence, event trees, recovery, and pre- and post-initiating events were all introduced in THERP. While THERP is not without its detractors, and it is showing signs of its age in the face of newer technological applications, the longevity of THERP is a testament of its tremendous significance. THERP started the field of human reliability analysis. This paper concludes with a discussion of THERP in the context of newer methods, which can be seen as extensions of or departures from Swain’s pioneering work.

  7. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  8. Environmental cost/benefit analysis for fusion power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, J.R.

    1976-11-01

    This document presents a cost/benefit analysis of use of fusion power plants early in the 21st century. The first section describes the general formulation of the analysis. Included are the selection of the alternatives to the fusion reactor, selection of the power system cases to be compared, and a general comparison of the environmental effects of the selected alternatives. The second section compares the cumulative environmental effects from 2010 to 2040 for the primary cases of the power system with and without fusion reactors. The third section briefly illustrates the potential economic benefits if fusion reactors produce electricity at a lower unit cost than LMFBRs can. The fourth section summarizes the cost/benefit analysis

  9. Reliability and Robustness Analysis of the Masinga Dam under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayden Postle-Floyd

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Kenya’s water abstraction must meet the projected growth in municipal and irrigation demand by the end of 2030 in order to achieve the country’s industrial and economic development plan. The Masinga dam, on the Tana River, is the key to meeting this goal to satisfy the growing demands whilst also continuing to provide hydroelectric power generation. This study quantitatively assesses the reliability and robustness of the Masinga dam system under uncertain future supply and demand using probabilistic climate and population projections, and examines how long-term planning may improve the longevity of the dam. River flow and demand projections are used alongside each other as inputs to the dam system simulation model linked to an optimisation engine to maximise water availability. Water availability after demand satisfaction is assessed for future years, and the projected reliability of the system is calculated for selected years. The analysis shows that maximising power generation on a short-term year-by-year basis achieves 80%, 50% and 1% reliability by 2020, 2025 and 2030 onwards, respectively. Longer term optimal planning, however, has increased system reliability to up to 95% in 2020, 80% in 2025, and more than 40% in 2030 onwards. In addition, increasing the capacity of the reservoir by around 25% can significantly improve the robustness of the system for all future time periods. This study provides a platform for analysing the implication of different planning and management of Masinga dam and suggests that careful consideration should be given to account for growing municipal needs and irrigation schemes in both the immediate and the associated Tana River basin.

  10. Risk-benefit analysis of 18FDG PET cancer screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murano, Takeshi; Daisaki, Hiromitsu; Terauchi, Takashi; Iinuma, Takeshi; Tateno, Yukio; Tateishi, Ukihide; Kato, Kazuaki; Inoue, Tomio

    2008-01-01

    The benefits of 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) cancer screening are expected to include a large population of examinees and are intended for a healthy group. Therefore, we attempted to determine the benefit/risk ratio, estimated risk of radiation exposure, and benefit of cancer detection. We used software that embodied the method of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to calculate the average duration of life of radiation exposure. We calculated the lifesaving person years of benefit to be obtained by 18 FDG PET cancer screening detection. We also calculated the benefit/risk ratio using life-shortening and lifesaving person years. According to age, the benefit/risk ratio was more than 1 at 35-39 years old for males and 30-34 years old for females. 18 FDG PET cancer screening also is effective for examinees older than this. A risk-benefit analysis of 18 FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT) cancer screening will be necessary in the future. (author)

  11. Social Cost Benefit Analysis of HL-LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Bastianin, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    We present a Social Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the High Luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC), assessing its economic costs and benefits up to 2038. The Net Present Value (NPV) of the HL-LHC project is positive at the end of the observation period. The ratio between incremental benefits and incremental costs of the HL-LHC with respect to continue operating the LHC under normal consolidation (i.e. without high-luminosity upgrade) is slightly over 1.7, meaning that each Swiss Franc invested in the HL-LHC upgrade project pays back approximately 1.7 CHF in societal benefits. Simulations based on 50000 Monte Carlo rounds show that there is a 94% chance to observe a positive NPV (i.e. a quantifiable economic benefit for the society). The attractiveness of CERN for Early Stage Researchers (ESR) is key for a positive CBA result. Given that benefits to ESRs are the single most important societal benefit, CERN should invest more in activities facilitating the transition to the international job...

  12. Reliability analysis of structures under periodic proof tests in service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.-N.

    1976-01-01

    A reliability analysis of structures subjected to random service loads and periodic proof tests treats gust loads and maneuver loads as random processes. Crack initiation, crack propagation, and strength degradation are treated as the fatigue process. The time to fatigue crack initiation and ultimate strength are random variables. Residual strength decreases during crack propagation, so that failure rate increases with time. When a structure fails under periodic proof testing, a new structure is built and proof-tested. The probability of structural failure in service is derived from treatment of all the random variables, strength degradations, service loads, proof tests, and the renewal of failed structures. Some numerical examples are worked out.

  13. Creation and Reliability Analysis of Vehicle Dynamic Weighing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Ling XU

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, it is modeled by using ADAMS to portable axle load meter of dynamic weighing system, controlling a single variable simulation weighing process, getting the simulation weighing data under the different speed and weight; simultaneously using portable weighing system with the same parameters to achieve the actual measurement, comparative analysis the simulation results under the same conditions, at 30 km/h or less, the simulation value and the measured value do not differ by more than 5 %, it is not only to verify the reliability of dynamic weighing model, but also to create possible for improving algorithm study efficiency by using dynamic weighing model simulation.

  14. Human Performance Modeling for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory; Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-08-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reac- tor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Charac- terization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk framework. In this paper, we review simulation based and non simulation based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper summarizes the founda- tional information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human in- teractions in RISMC simulations.

  15. IDHEAS – A NEW APPROACH FOR HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    G. W. Parry; J.A Forester; V.N. Dang; S. M. L. Hendrickson; M. Presley; E. Lois; J. Xing

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes a method, IDHEAS (Integrated Decision-Tree Human Event Analysis System) that has been developed jointly by the US NRC and EPRI as an improved approach to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) that is based on an understanding of the cognitive mechanisms and performance influencing factors (PIFs) that affect operator responses. The paper describes the various elements of the method, namely the performance of a detailed cognitive task analysis that is documented in a crew response tree (CRT), and the development of the associated time-line to identify the critical tasks, i.e. those whose failure results in a human failure event (HFE), and an approach to quantification that is based on explanations of why the HFE might occur.

  16. Dual discounting in cost-benefit analysis for environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kula, Erhun; Evans, David

    2011-01-01

    Discounting has been a long-established intertemporal efficiency tool in cost-benefit analysis which focuses on project selection at communal level with a view to maximising the social welfare. However, with the relentless growth in environmental stress that, in good parts, stems from investment projects the established criterion in discounting appears to be inadequate especially when environmental issues are taken into consideration. This paper looks at how dual focus on efficiency and sustainability can be achieved by using dual discounting, i.e. discounting environmental benefits separately and differently from other costs and benefits and applies this alternative criterion to an afforestation scheme in the United Kingdom which contains carbon sequestration in addition to timber benefits.

  17. Outline of cost-benefit analysis and a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellizy, A.

    1978-01-01

    The methodology of cost-benefit analysis is reviewed and a case study involving solar cell technology is presented. Emphasis is placed on simplifying the technique in order to permit a technical person not trained in economics to undertake a cost-benefit study comparing alternative approaches to a given problem. The role of economic analysis in management decision making is discussed. In simplifying the methodology it was necessary to restrict the scope and applicability of this report. Additional considerations and constraints are outlined. Examples are worked out to demonstrate the principles. A computer program which performs the computational aspects appears in the appendix.

  18. Cost Benefit Analysis: Bypass of Prešov city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margorínová Martina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes decision making process based on economic evaluation, i.e. Cost Benefit Analysis for motorway bypass of the Prešov city. Three variants were evaluated by means of the Highway Development and Management Tool (HDM-4. HDM-4 is a software system for evaluating options for investing in road transport infrastructure. Vehicle operating costs and travel time costs were monetized with the use of the software. The investment opportunities were evaluated in terms of Cost Benefit Analysis results, i.e. economic indicators.

  19. Analysis of Parking Reliability Guidance of Urban Parking Variable Message Sign System

    OpenAIRE

    Zhenyu Mei; Ye Tian; Dongping Li

    2012-01-01

    Operators of parking guidance and information systems (PGIS) often encounter difficulty in determining when and how to provide reliable car park availability information to drivers. Reliability has become a key factor to ensure the benefits of urban PGIS. The present paper is the first to define the guiding parking reliability of urban parking variable message signs (VMSs). By analyzing the parking choice under guiding and optional parking lots, a guiding parking reliability model was constru...

  20. Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed

  1. Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffith, Candice D. [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States); Mahadevan, Sankaran, E-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States)

    2011-11-15

    The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: >We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. > We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. > We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

  2. A methodology for strain-based fatigue reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Y.X.

    2000-01-01

    A significant scatter of the cyclic stress-strain (CSS) responses should be noted for a nuclear reactor material, 1Cr18Ni9Ti pipe-weld metal. Existence of the scatter implies that a random cyclic strain applied history will be introduced under any of the loading modes even a deterministic loading history. A non-conservative evaluation might be given in the practice without considering the scatter. A methodology for strain-based fatigue reliability analysis, which has taken into account the scatter, is developed. The responses are approximately modeled by probability-based CSS curves of Ramberg-Osgood relation. The strain-life data are modeled, similarly, by probability-based strain-life curves of Coffin-Manson law. The reliability assessment is constructed by considering interference of the random fatigue strain applied and capacity histories. Probability density functions of the applied and capacity histories are analytically given. The methodology could be conveniently extrapolated to the case of deterministic CSS relation as the existent methods did. Non-conservative evaluation of the deterministic CSS relation and availability of present methodology have been indicated by an analysis of the material test results

  3. Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffith, Candice D.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2011-01-01

    The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: →We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. → We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. → We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

  4. Cost-benefit analysis of the ATM automatic deposit service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivica Županović

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Bankers and other financial experts have analyzed the value of automated teller machines (ATM in terms of growing consumer demand, rising costs of technology development, decreasing profitability and market share. This paper presents a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis of the ATM automatic deposit service. The first step is to determine user attitudes towards using ATM automatic deposit service by using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM. The second step is to determine location priorities for ATMs that provide automatic deposit services using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP model. The results of the previous steps enable a highly efficient application of cost-benefit analysis for evaluating costs and benefits of automatic deposit services. To understand fully the proposed procedure outside of theoretical terms, a real-world application of a case study is conducted.

  5. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  6. Model-based human reliability analysis: prospects and requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Chang, Y.H.

    2004-01-01

    Major limitations of the conventional methods for human reliability analysis (HRA), particularly those developed for operator response analysis in probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) of nuclear power plants, are summarized as a motivation for the need and a basis for developing requirements for the next generation HRA methods. It is argued that a model-based approach that provides explicit cognitive causal links between operator behaviors and directly or indirectly measurable causal factors should be at the core of the advanced methods. An example of such causal model is briefly reviewed, where due to the model complexity and input requirements can only be currently implemented in a dynamic PSA environment. The computer simulation code developed for this purpose is also described briefly, together with current limitations in the models, data, and the computer implementation

  7. Current Human Reliability Analysis Methods Applied to Computerized Procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    Computerized procedures (CPs) are an emerging technology within nuclear power plant control rooms. While CPs have been implemented internationally in advanced control rooms, to date no US nuclear power plant has implemented CPs in its main control room (Fink et al., 2009). Yet, CPs are a reality of new plant builds and are an area of considerable interest to existing plants, which see advantages in terms of enhanced ease of use and easier records management by omitting the need for updating hardcopy procedures. The overall intent of this paper is to provide a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures. It is beyond the scope of this document to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper serves as a review of current HRA as it may be used for the analysis and review of computerized procedures.

  8. Standardization of domestic human reliability analysis and experience of human reliability analysis in probabilistic safety assessment for NPPs under design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. I.; Jung, W. D.

    2002-01-01

    This paper introduces the background and development activities of domestic standardization of procedure and method for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) to avoid the intervention of subjectivity by HRA analyst in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as possible, and the review of the HRA results for domestic nuclear power plants under design studied by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. We identify the HRA methods used for PSA for domestic NPPs and discuss the subjectivity of HRA analyst shown in performing a HRA. Also, we introduce the PSA guidelines published in USA and review the HRA results based on them. We propose the system of a standard procedure and method for HRA to be developed

  9. Electric propulsion reliability: Statistical analysis of on-orbit anomalies and comparative analysis of electric versus chemical propulsion failure rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Joseph Homer; Geng, Fan; Ku, Michelle; Walker, Mitchell L. R.

    2017-10-01

    With a few hundred spacecraft launched to date with electric propulsion (EP), it is possible to conduct an epidemiological study of EP's on orbit reliability. The first objective of the present work was to undertake such a study and analyze EP's track record of on orbit anomalies and failures by different covariates. The second objective was to provide a comparative analysis of EP's failure rates with those of chemical propulsion. Satellite operators, manufacturers, and insurers will make reliability- and risk-informed decisions regarding the adoption and promotion of EP on board spacecraft. This work provides evidence-based support for such decisions. After a thorough data collection, 162 EP-equipped satellites launched between January 1997 and December 2015 were included in our dataset for analysis. Several statistical analyses were conducted, at the aggregate level and then with the data stratified by severity of the anomaly, by orbit type, and by EP technology. Mean Time To Anomaly (MTTA) and the distribution of the time to (minor/major) anomaly were investigated, as well as anomaly rates. The important findings in this work include the following: (1) Post-2005, EP's reliability has outperformed that of chemical propulsion; (2) Hall thrusters have robustly outperformed chemical propulsion, and they maintain a small but shrinking reliability advantage over gridded ion engines. Other results were also provided, for example the differentials in MTTA of minor and major anomalies for gridded ion engines and Hall thrusters. It was shown that: (3) Hall thrusters exhibit minor anomalies very early on orbit, which might be indicative of infant anomalies, and thus would benefit from better ground testing and acceptance procedures; (4) Strong evidence exists that EP anomalies (onset and likelihood) and orbit type are dependent, a dependence likely mediated by either the space environment or differences in thrusters duty cycles; (5) Gridded ion thrusters exhibit both

  10. A cost-benefit analysis of The National Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsing, David L.; Theissen, Kevin; Bernknopf, Richard

    2003-01-01

    The Geography Discipline of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted this cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of The National Map. This analysis is an evaluation of the proposed Geography Discipline initiative to provide the Nation with a mechanism to access current and consistent digital geospatial data. This CBA is a supporting document to accompany the Exhibit 300 Capital Asset Plan and Business Case of The National Map Reengineering Program. The framework for estimating the benefits is based on expected improvements in processing information to perform any of the possible applications of spatial data. This analysis does not attempt to determine the benefits and costs of performing geospatial-data applications. Rather, it estimates the change in the differences between those benefits and costs with The National Map and the current situation without it. The estimates of total costs and benefits of The National Map were based on the projected implementation time, development and maintenance costs, rates of data inclusion and integration, expected usage levels over time, and a benefits estimation model. The National Map provides data that are current, integrated, consistent, complete, and more accessible in order to decrease the cost of implementing spatial-data applications and (or) improve the outcome of those applications. The efficiency gains in per-application improvements are greater than the cost to develop and maintain The National Map, meaning that the program would bring a positive net benefit to the Nation. The average improvement in the net benefit of performing a spatial data application was multiplied by a simulated number of application implementations across the country. The numbers of users, existing applications, and rates of application implementation increase over time as The National Map is developed and accessed by spatial data users around the country. Results from the 'most likely' estimates of model parameters and data inputs indicate that

  11. Systems reliability analysis: applications of the SPARCS System-Reliability Assessment Computer Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locks, M.O.

    1978-01-01

    SPARCS-2 (Simulation Program for Assessing the Reliabilities of Complex Systems, Version 2) is a PL/1 computer program for assessing (establishing interval estimates for) the reliability and the MTBF of a large and complex s-coherent system of any modular configuration. The system can consist of a complex logical assembly of independently failing attribute (binomial-Bernoulli) and time-to-failure (Poisson-exponential) components, without regard to their placement. Alternatively, it can be a configuration of independently failing modules, where each module has either or both attribute and time-to-failure components. SPARCS-2 also has an improved super modularity feature. Modules with minimal-cut unreliabiliy calculations can be mixed with those having minimal-path reliability calculations. All output has been standardized to system reliability or probability of success, regardless of the form in which the input data is presented, and whatever the configuration of modules or elements within modules

  12. Special waste disposal in Austria - cost benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuntscher, H.

    1983-01-01

    The present situation of special waste disposal in Austria is summarized for radioactive and nonradioactive wastes. A cost benefit analysis for regulary collection, transport and disposal of industrial wastes, especially chemical wastes is given and the cost burden for the industry is calculated. (A.N.)

  13. Infrastructures and Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    2012-01-01

    Design and maintenance of infrastructures using Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit analysis is discussed in this paper with special emphasis on users costs. This is for several infrastructures such as bridges, highways etc. of great importance. Repair or/and failure of infrastructures will usually result...

  14. Preferences, benefits, and park visits: a latent class segmentation analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2006-01-01

    This study describes and predicts segments of urban park visitors to support park planning and policy making. A latent class analysis is used to identify segments of park users who differ regarding their preferences for park characteristics, benefits sought in park visits, and sociodemographics.

  15. Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin

    2017-01-01

    Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event

  16. Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Bucknor

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general for the postulated transient event.

  17. Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

  18. Reliability and availability requirements analysis for DEMO: fuel cycle system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinna, T.; Borgognoni, F.

    2015-01-01

    The Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) will be a fusion reactor prototype designed to demonstrate the capability to produce electrical power in a commercially acceptable way. Two of the key elements of the engineering development of the DEMO reactor are the definitions of reliability and availability requirements (or targets). The availability target for a hypothesized Fuel Cycle has been analysed as a test case. The analysis has been done on the basis of the experience gained in operating existing tokamak fusion reactors and developing the ITER design. Plant Breakdown Structure (PBS) and Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) related to the DEMO Fuel Cycle and correlations between PBS and FBS have been identified. At first, a set of availability targets has been allocated to the various systems on the basis of their operating, protection and safety functions. 75% and 85% of availability has been allocated to the operating functions of fuelling system and tritium plant respectively. 99% of availability has been allocated to the overall systems in executing their safety functions. The chances of the systems to achieve the allocated targets have then been investigated through a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and Reliability Block Diagram analysis. The following results have been obtained: 1) the target of 75% for the operations of the fuelling system looks reasonable, while the target of 85% for the operations of the whole tritium plant should be reduced to 80%, even though all the tritium plant systems can individually reach quite high availability targets, over 90% - 95%; 2) all the DEMO Fuel Cycle systems can reach the target of 99% in accomplishing their safety functions. (authors)

  19. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  20. Reliability analysis of large scaled structures by optimization technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, N.; Mihara, T.; Iizuka, M.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis based on the optimization technique using PNET (Probabilistic Network Evaluation Technique) method for the highly redundant structures having a large number of collapse modes. This approach makes the best use of the merit of the optimization technique in which the idea of PNET method is used. The analytical process involves the minimization of safety index of the representative mode, subjected to satisfaction of the mechanism condition and of the positive external work. The procedure entails the sequential performance of a series of the NLP (Nonlinear Programming) problems, where the correlation condition as the idea of PNET method pertaining to the representative mode is taken as an additional constraint to the next analysis. Upon succeeding iterations, the final analysis is achieved when a collapse probability at the subsequent mode is extremely less than the value at the 1st mode. The approximate collapse probability of the structure is defined as the sum of the collapse probabilities of the representative modes classified by the extent of correlation. Then, in order to confirm the validity of the proposed method, the conventional Monte Carlo simulation is also revised by using the collapse load analysis. Finally, two fairly large structures were analyzed to illustrate the scope and application of the approach. (orig./HP)

  1. Application of human reliability analysis methodology of second generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz S, T. de J.; Nelson E, P. F.

    2009-10-01

    The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a very important part of probabilistic safety analysis. The main contribution of HRA in nuclear power plants is the identification and characterization of the issues that are brought together for an error occurring in the human tasks that occur under normal operation conditions and those made after abnormal event. Additionally, the analysis of various accidents in history, it was found that the human component has been a contributing factor in the cause. Because of need to understand the forms and probability of human error in the 60 decade begins with the collection of generic data that result in the development of the first generation of HRA methodologies. Subsequently develop methods to include in their models additional performance shaping factors and the interaction between them. So by the 90 mid, comes what is considered the second generation methodologies. Among these is the methodology A Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA). The application of this method in a generic human failure event, it is interesting because it includes in its modeling commission error, the additional deviations quantification to nominal scenario considered in the accident sequence of probabilistic safety analysis and, for this event the dependency actions evaluation. That is, the generic human failure event was required first independent evaluation of the two related human failure events . So the gathering of the new human error probabilities involves the nominal scenario quantification and cases of significant deviations considered by the potential impact on analyzed human failure events. Like probabilistic safety analysis, with the analysis of the sequences were extracted factors more specific with the highest contribution in the human error probabilities. (Author)

  2. The benefits of customer profitability analysis in the hospitality industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Georgiev

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the benefits of customer profitability analysis implementation according to the specifics of the hotel product and the state of the management accounting in hotels. On this basis is substantiated the necessity management accounting and information systems in the hotels to be anteriorly adapted and developed in relevance with the objectives and methodological tools of customer profitability analysis, while keeping their function in collecting information for operational revenues and costs by responsibility centers. A model for customer profitability analysis based on ABC method is proposed in this connection, providing an example to clarify its methodological aspects and benefits. The latter consist in providing information for the purposes of taking a variety of management decisions regarding costs, product mix, pricing, performance measurement and implementation of various marketing initiatives.

  3. Analogical reasoning for reliability analysis based on generic data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozin, Igor O

    1996-10-01

    The paper suggests using the systemic concept 'analogy' for the foundation of an approach to analyze system reliability on the basis of generic data, describing the method of structuring the set that defines analogical models, an approach of transition from the analogical model to a reliability model and a way of obtaining reliability intervals of analogous objects.

  4. Analogical reasoning for reliability analysis based on generic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, Igor O.

    1996-01-01

    The paper suggests using the systemic concept 'analogy' for the foundation of an approach to analyze system reliability on the basis of generic data, describing the method of structuring the set that defines analogical models, an approach of transition from the analogical model to a reliability model and a way of obtaining reliability intervals of analogous objects

  5. Applicability of simplified human reliability analysis methods for severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, R.; St Germain, S. [Idaho National Lab., Idaho Falls, Idaho (United States); Banaseanu, G.; Chatri, H.; Akl, Y. [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-03-15

    Most contemporary human reliability analysis (HRA) methods were created to analyse design-basis accidents at nuclear power plants. As part of a comprehensive expansion of risk assessments at many plants internationally, HRAs will begin considering severe accident scenarios. Severe accidents, while extremely rare, constitute high consequence events that significantly challenge successful operations and recovery. Challenges during severe accidents include degraded and hazardous operating conditions at the plant, the shift in control from the main control room to the technical support center, the unavailability of plant instrumentation, and the need to use different types of operating procedures. Such shifts in operations may also test key assumptions in existing HRA methods. This paper discusses key differences between design basis and severe accidents, reviews efforts to date to create customized HRA methods suitable for severe accidents, and recommends practices for adapting existing HRA methods that are already being used for HRAs at the plants. (author)

  6. Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbine Cast Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Fæster, Søren

    2017-01-01

    .) and to quantify the relevant uncertainties using available fatigue tests. Illustrative results are presented as obtained by statistical analysis of a large set of fatigue data for casted test components typically used for wind turbines. Furthermore, the SN curves (fatigue life curves based on applied stress......The fatigue life of wind turbine cast components, such as the main shaft in a drivetrain, is generally determined by defects from the casting process. These defects may reduce the fatigue life and they are generally distributed randomly in components. The foundries, cutting facilities and test...... facilities can affect the verification of properties by testing. Hence, it is important to have a tool to identify which foundry, cutting and/or test facility produces components which, based on the relevant uncertainties, have the largest expected fatigue life or, alternatively, have the largest reliability...

  7. Basic aspects of stochastic reliability analysis for redundancy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerre, P.

    1989-01-01

    Much confusion has been created by trying to establish common cause failure (CCF) as an extra phenomenon which has to be treated with extra methods in reliability and data analysis. This paper takes another approach which can be roughly described by the statement that dependent failure is the basic phenomenon, while 'independent failure' refers to a special limiting case, namely the perfectly homogeneous population. This approach is motivated by examples demonstrating that common causes do not lead to dependent failure, so far as physical dependencies like shared components are excluded, and that stochastic dependencies are not related to common causes. The possibility to select more than one failure behaviour from an inhomogeneous population is identified as an additional random process which creates stochastic dependence. However, this source of randomness is usually treated in the deterministic limit, which destroys dependence and hence yields incorrect multiple failure frequencies for redundancy structures, thus creating the need for applying corrective CCF models. (author)

  8. An Application of Graph Theory in Markov Chains Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Skalny

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents reliability analysis which was realized for an industrial company. The aim of the paper is to present the usage of discrete time Markov chains and the flow in network approach. Discrete Markov chains a well-known method of stochastic modelling describes the issue. The method is suitable for many systems occurring in practice where we can easily distinguish various amount of states. Markov chains are used to describe transitions between the states of the process. The industrial process is described as a graph network. The maximal flow in the network corresponds to the production. The Ford-Fulkerson algorithm is used to quantify the production for each state. The combination of both methods are utilized to quantify the expected value of the amount of manufactured products for the given time period.

  9. Time-dependent reliability analysis and condition assessment of structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, B.R.

    1997-01-01

    Structures generally play a passive role in assurance of safety in nuclear plant operation, but are important if the plant is to withstand the effect of extreme environmental or abnormal events. Relative to mechanical and electrical components, structural systems and components would be difficult and costly to replace. While the performance of steel or reinforced concrete structures in service generally has been very good, their strengths may deteriorate during an extended service life as a result of changes brought on by an aggressive environment, excessive loading, or accidental loading. Quantitative tools for condition assessment of aging structures can be developed using time-dependent structural reliability analysis methods. Such methods provide a framework for addressing the uncertainties attendant to aging in the decision process

  10. Reliability analysis for the quench detection in the LHC machine

    CERN Document Server

    Denz, R; Vergara-Fernández, A

    2002-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will incorporate a large amount of superconducting elements that require protection in case of a quench. Key elements in the quench protection system are the electronic quench detectors. Their reliability will have an important impact on the down time as well as on the operational cost of the collider. The expected rates of both false and missed quenches have been computed for several redundant detection schemes. The developed model takes account of the maintainability of the system to optimise the frequency of foreseen checks, and evaluate their influence on the performance of different detection topologies. Seen the uncertainty of the failure rate of the components combined with the LHC tunnel environment, the study has been completed with a sensitivity analysis of the results. The chosen detection scheme and the maintainability strategy for each detector family are given.

  11. TRICARE Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) Benefit: Comparison with Medicaid and Commercial Benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maglione, Margaret; Kadiyala, Srikanth; Kress, Amii; Hastings, Jaime L; O'Hanlon, Claire E

    2017-01-01

    This study compared the Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) benefit provided by TRICARE as an early intervention for autism spectrum disorder with similar benefits in Medicaid and commercial health insurance plans. The sponsor, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, was particularly interested in how a proposed TRICARE reimbursement rate decrease from $125 per hour to $68 per hour for ABA services performed by a Board Certified Behavior Analyst compared with reimbursement rates (defined as third-party payment to the service provider) in Medicaid and commercial health insurance plans. Information on ABA coverage in state Medicaid programs was collected from Medicaid state waiver databases; subsequently, Medicaid provider reimbursement data were collected from state Medicaid fee schedules. Applied Behavior Analysis provider reimbursement in the commercial health insurance system was estimated using Truven Health MarketScan® data. A weighted mean U.S. reimbursement rate was calculated for several services using cross-state information on the number of children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Locations of potential provider shortages were also identified. Medicaid and commercial insurance reimbursement rates varied considerably across the United States. This project concluded that the proposed $68-per-hour reimbursement rate for services provided by a board certified analyst was more than 25 percent below the U.S. mean.

  12. ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox: An open-source toolbox for analyzing the reliability of event-related brain potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

    2017-01-01

    Generalizability theory (G theory) provides a flexible, multifaceted approach to estimating score reliability. G theory's approach to estimating score reliability has important advantages over classical test theory that are relevant for research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs). For example, G theory does not require parallel forms (i.e., equal means, variances, and covariances), can handle unbalanced designs, and provides a single reliability estimate for designs with multiple sources of error. This monograph provides a detailed description of the conceptual framework of G theory using examples relevant to ERP researchers, presents the algorithms needed to estimate ERP score reliability, and provides a detailed walkthrough of newly-developed software, the ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox, that calculates score reliability using G theory. The ERA Toolbox is open-source, Matlab software that uses G theory to estimate the contribution of the number of trials retained for averaging, group, and/or event types on ERP score reliability. The toolbox facilitates the rigorous evaluation of psychometric properties of ERP scores recommended elsewhere in this special issue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. A reliability analysis of the revised competitiveness index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Paul B; Houston, John M

    2010-06-01

    This study examined the reliability of the Revised Competitiveness Index by investigating the test-retest reliability, interitem reliability, and factor structure of the measure based on a sample of 280 undergraduates (200 women, 80 men) ranging in age from 18 to 28 years (M = 20.1, SD = 2.1). The findings indicate that the Revised Competitiveness Index has high test-retest reliability, high inter-item reliability, and a stable factor structure. The results support the assertion that the Revised Competitiveness Index assesses competitiveness as a stable trait rather than a dynamic state.

  14. Development of the integrated system reliability analysis code MODULE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S.H.; Yoo, K.J.; Kim, T.W.

    1987-01-01

    The major components in a system reliability analysis are the determination of cut sets, importance measure, and uncertainty analysis. Various computer codes have been used for these purposes. For example, SETS and FTAP are used to determine cut sets; Importance for importance calculations; and Sample, CONINT, and MOCUP for uncertainty analysis. There have been problems when the codes run each other and the input and output are not linked, which could result in errors when preparing input for each code. The code MODULE was developed to carry out the above calculations simultaneously without linking input and outputs to other codes. MODULE can also prepare input for SETS for the case of a large fault tree that cannot be handled by MODULE. The flow diagram of the MODULE code is shown. To verify the MODULE code, two examples are selected and the results and computation times are compared with those of SETS, FTAP, CONINT, and MOCUP on both Cyber 170-875 and IBM PC/AT. Two examples are fault trees of the auxiliary feedwater system (AFWS) of Korea Nuclear Units (KNU)-1 and -2, which have 54 gates and 115 events, 39 gates and 92 events, respectively. The MODULE code has the advantage that it can calculate the cut sets, importances, and uncertainties in a single run with little increase in computing time over other codes and that it can be used in personal computers

  15. Human reliability analysis for advanced control room of KNGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Myung-Ro; Park, Seong-Kyu

    2000-01-01

    There are two purposes in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) which was performed during Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR) Phase 2 research project. One is to present the human error probability quantification results for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and the other is to provide a list of the critical operator actions for Human Factor Engineering (HFE). Critical operator actions were identified from the KNGR HRA/RSA based on selection criteria and incorporated in the MMI Task Analysis, where they receive additional treatment. The use of HRA/PSA results in design, procedure development, and training was ensured by their incorporation in the MMI task analysis and MCR design such as fixed position alarms, displays and controls. Any dominant PSA sequence that takes credit for human performance to achieve acceptable results was incorporated in MMIS validation activities through the PSA-based critical operator actions. The integration of KNGR HRA into MMI design was sufficiently addressed all applicable review criteria of NUREG-0800, Chapter 18, Section 2 F and NUREG-0711. (S.Y.)

  16. Models and data requirements for human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-03-01

    It has been widely recognised for many years that the safety of the nuclear power generation depends heavily on the human factors related to plant operation. This has been confirmed by the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Both these cases revealed how human actions can defeat engineered safeguards and the need for special operator training to cover the possibility of unexpected plant conditions. The importance of the human factor also stands out in the analysis of abnormal events and insights from probabilistic safety assessments (PSA's), which reveal a large proportion of cases having their origin in faulty operator performance. A consultants' meeting, organized jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) was held at IIASA in Laxenburg, Austria, December 7-11, 1987, with the aim of reviewing existing models used in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) and of identifying the data required. The report collects both the contributions offered by the members of the Expert Task Force and the findings of the extensive discussions that took place during the meeting. Refs, figs and tabs

  17. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Smart Grids Implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomsic, Z.; Pongrasic, M.

    2014-01-01

    Paper presents guidelines for conducting the cost-benefit analysis of Smart Grid projects connected to the implementation of advanced technologies in electric power system. Restrictions of presented electric power networks are also mentioned along with solutions that are offered by advanced electric power network. From an economic point of view, the main characteristic of advanced electric power network is big investment, and benefits are seen after some time with risk of being smaller than expected. Therefore it is important to make a comprehensive analysis of those projects which consist of economic and qualitative analysis. This report relies on EPRI methodology developed in American institute for energy. The methodology is comprehensive and useful, but also simple and easy to understand. Steps of this methodology and main characteristics of methodologies which refer to EPRI methodology: methodology developed in Joint Research Center and methodologies for analysing implementation of smart meters in electricity power network are explained. Costs, benefits and categories in which they can be classified are also defined. As a part of qualitative analysis, social aspect of Smart Grid projects is described. In cost defining, special attention has to be paid to projects of integrating electricity from variable renewable energy sources into the power system because of additional costs. This work summarized categories of additional costs. In the end of this report, an overview is given of what has been done and what will be done in European Union. (author).

  18. Reliability analysis of component of affination centrifugal 1 machine by using reliability engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, N.; Ginting, E.; Darnello, T.

    2017-12-01

    Problems that appear in a company that produces refined sugar, the production floor has not reached the level of critical machine availability because it often suffered damage (breakdown). This results in a sudden loss of production time and production opportunities. This problem can be solved by Reliability Engineering method where the statistical approach to historical damage data is performed to see the pattern of the distribution. The method can provide a value of reliability, rate of damage, and availability level, of an machine during the maintenance time interval schedule. The result of distribution test to time inter-damage data (MTTF) flexible hose component is lognormal distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. While from distribution test to mean time of improvement (MTTR) flexible hose component is exponential distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. The actual results of the flexible hose component on the replacement schedule per 720 hours obtained reliability of 0.2451 and availability 0.9960. While on the critical components of teflon cone lifthing actual on the replacement schedule per 1944 hours obtained reliability of 0.4083 and availability 0.9927.

  19. Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

    2018-03-01

    In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

  20. Reliability analysis of land pipelines for hydrocarbons transportation in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leon, D.; Cortes, C. [Inst. Mexicano del Petroleo (Mexico)

    2004-07-01

    The reliability of a land pipeline operated by PEMEX in Mexico was estimated under a range of failure modes. Reliability and safety were evaluated in terms of the pipeline's internal pressure, bending, fracture toughness and its tension failure mode conditions. Loading conditions were applied individually, while bending and tension loads were applied in a combined fashion. The mechanical properties of the steel were also considered along with the degradation effect of internal corrosion resulting from the type of product being transported. A set of internal pressures and mechanical properties were generated randomly using Monte Carlo simulation. Commercial software was used to obtain the pipeline response under each modeled condition. The response analysis was based on the nonlinear finite element method involving a calculation of maximum stresses and stress concentration factors under conditions of corrosion and no corrosion. The margin between maximum stresses due to internal pressure, tension and bending was evaluated along with the margin between stress concentration factor and fracture initiation toughness. The study showed that internal pressure, stress concentration and tension-bending were the critical failure modes. It was suggested that more research should be conducted to improve the modeling of the deteriorating effects of corrosion and to adjust the probability distribution for fracture toughness and the length/depth defect ratio. The consideration of welding geometries along with features of marine pipelines and pipeline products would help to generalize the study to facilitate the creation of codes for the construction, design, inspection and maintenance of pipelines in Mexico. 7 refs., 1 tab., 14 figs.

  1. Can cloud computing benefit health services? - a SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Mu-Hsing; Kushniruk, Andre; Borycki, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss cloud computing, the current state of cloud computing in healthcare, and the challenges and opportunities of adopting cloud computing in healthcare. A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was used to evaluate the feasibility of adopting this computing model in healthcare. The paper concludes that cloud computing could have huge benefits for healthcare but there are a number of issues that will need to be addressed before its widespread use in healthcare.

  2. A cost-benefit analysis of spent fuel management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamorlette, G.

    2001-01-01

    The back end of the fuel cycle is an area of economic risk for utilities having nuclear power plants to generate electricity. A cost-benefit analysis is a method by which utilities can evaluate advantages and drawbacks of alternative back end fuel cycle strategies. The present paper analyzes how spent fuel management can influence the risks and costs incurred by a utility over the lifetime of its power plants and recommends a recycling strategy. (author)

  3. Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong

    1992-07-01

    This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

  4. The National Opportunity for Interoperability and its Benefits for a Reliable, Robust, and Future Grid Realized Through Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

    2016-02-01

    Today, increasing numbers of intermittent generation sources (e.g., wind and photovoltaic) and new mobile intermittent loads (e.g., electric vehicles) can significantly affect traditional utility business practices and operations. At the same time, a growing number of technologies and devices, from appliances to lighting systems, are being deployed at consumer premises that have more sophisticated controls and information that remain underused for anything beyond basic building equipment operations. The intersection of these two drivers is an untapped opportunity and underused resource that, if appropriately configured and realized in open standards, can provide significant energy efficiency and commensurate savings on utility bills, enhanced and lower cost reliability to utilities, and national economic benefits in the creation of new markets, sectors, and businesses being fueled by the seamless coordination of energy and information through device and technology interoperability. Or, as the Quadrennial Energy Review puts it, “A plethora of both consumer-level and grid-level devices are either in the market, under development, or at the conceptual stage. When tied together through the information technology that is increasingly being deployed on electric utilities’ distribution grids, they can be an important enabling part of the emerging grid of the future. However, what is missing is the ability for all of these devices to coordinate and communicate their operations with the grid, and among themselves, in a common language — an open standard.” In this paper, we define interoperability as the ability to exchange actionable information between two or more systems within a home or building, or across and within organizational boundaries. Interoperability relies on the shared meaning of the exchanged information, with agreed-upon expectations and consequences, for the response to the information exchange.

  5. RELOSS, Reliability of Safety System by Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allan, R.N.; Rondiris, I.L.; Adraktas, A.

    1981-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: Program RELOSS is used in the reliability/safety assessment of any complex system with predetermined operational logic in qualitative and (if required) quantitative terms. The program calculates the possible system outcomes following an abnormal operating condition and the probability of occurrence, if required. Furthermore, the program deduces the minimal cut or tie sets of the system outcomes and identifies the potential common mode failures. 4. Method of solution: The reliability analysis performed by the program is based on the event tree methodology. Using this methodology, the program develops the event tree of a system or a module of that system and relates each path of this tree to its qualitative and/or quantitative impact on specified system or module outcomes. If the system being analysed is subdivided into modules the program assesses each module in turn as described previously and then combines the module information to obtain results for the overall system. Having developed the event tree of a module or a system, the program identifies which paths lead or do not lead to various outcomes depending on whether the cut or the tie sets of the outcomes are required and deduces the corresponding sets. Furthermore the program identifies for a specific system outcome, the potential common mode failures and the cut or tie sets containing potential dependent failures of some components. 5. Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The present dimensions of the program are as follows. They can however be easily modified: Maximum number of modules (equivalent components): 25; Maximum number of components in a module: 15; Maximum number of levels of parentheses in a logical statement: 10 Maximum number of system outcomes: 3; Maximum number of module outcomes: 2; Maximum number of points in time for which quantitative analysis is required: 5; Maximum order of any cut or tie set: 10; Maximum order of a cut or tie of any

  6. New nuclear power generation in the UK: Cost benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, David

    2007-01-01

    This paper provides an economic analysis of possible nuclear new build in the UK. It compares costs and benefits of nuclear new build against conventional gas-fired generation and low carbon technologies (CCS, wind, etc.). A range of scenarios are considered to allow for uncertainty as regards nuclear and other technology costs, gas prices and carbon prices. In the base case, the analysis suggests that there is a small cost penalty for new nuclear generation relative to conventional gas-fired generation, but that this is offset by environmental and security of supply benefits. More generally nuclear new build has a positive net benefit for a range of plausible nuclear costs, gas prices and carbon prices. This supports the UK policy of developing an enabling framework for nuclear new build in a market-based context. To the extent that assumptions in the analysis are not borne out in reality (e.g. as regards nuclear cost), this is a no regrets policy, given that the market would not invest in nuclear if it is prohibitively costly. (author)

  7. Incorporating concepts of inequality and inequity into health benefits analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuchmann Jessica L

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although environmental policy decisions are often based in part on both risk assessment information and environmental justice concerns, formalized approaches for addressing inequality or inequity when estimating the health benefits of pollution control have been lacking. Inequality indicators that fulfill basic axioms and agree with relevant definitions and concepts in health benefits analysis and environmental justice analysis can allow for quantitative examination of efficiency-equality tradeoffs in pollution control policies. Methods To develop appropriate inequality indicators for health benefits analysis, we provide relevant definitions from the fields of risk assessment and environmental justice and consider the implications. We evaluate axioms proposed in past studies of inequality indicators and develop additional axioms relevant to this context. We survey the literature on previous applications of inequality indicators and evaluate five candidate indicators in reference to our proposed axioms. We present an illustrative pollution control example to determine whether our selected indicators provide interpretable information. Results and Conclusions We conclude that an inequality indicator for health benefits analysis should not decrease when risk is transferred from a low-risk to high-risk person, and that it should decrease when risk is transferred from a high-risk to low-risk person (Pigou-Dalton transfer principle, and that it should be able to have total inequality divided into its constituent parts (subgroup decomposability. We additionally propose that an ideal indicator should avoid value judgments about the relative importance of transfers at different percentiles of the risk distribution, incorporate health risk with evidence about differential susceptibility, include baseline distributions of risk, use appropriate geographic resolution and scope, and consider multiple competing policy alternatives. Given

  8. The reliability of mercury analysis in environmental materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinonen, J.; Suschny, O.

    1973-01-01

    Mercury occurs in nature in its native elemental as well as in different mineral forms. It has been mined for centuries and is used in many branches of industry, agriculture and medicine. Mercury is very toxic to man and reports of poisoning due to the presence of the element in fish and shellfish caught at Minamata and Niigata, Japan have led not only to local investigations but to multi-national research into the sources and the levels of mercury in the environment. The concentrations at which the element has to be determined in these studies are extremely small, usually of the order of a few parts in 10 9 parts of environmental material. Few analytical techniques provide the required sensitivity for analysis at such low concentrations, and only two are normally used for mercury: neutron activation analysis and atomic absorption photometry. They are also the most convenient end points of various separation schemes for different organic mercury compounds. Mercury analysis at the ppb-level is beset with many problems: volatility of the metal and its compounds, impurity of reagents, interference by other elements and many other analytical difficulties may influence the results. To be able to draw valid conclusions from the analyses it is necessary to know the reliability attached to the values obtained. To assist laboratories in the evaluation of their analytical performance, the International Atomic Energy Agency through its own laboratory at Seibersdorf already organised in 1967 an intercomparison of mercury analysis in flour. Based on the results obtained at that time, a whole series of intercomparisons of mercury determinations in nine different environmental materials was undertaken in 1971. The materials investigated included corn and wheat flour, spray-dried animal blood serum, fish solubles, milk powder, saw dust, cellulose, lacquer paint and coloric material

  9. The reliability of mercury analysis in environmental materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinonen, J.; Suschny, O

    1973-01-01

    Mercury occurs in nature in its native elemental as well as in different mineral forms. It has been mined for centuries and is used in many branches of industry, agriculture and medicine. Mercury is very toxic to man and reports of poisoning due to the presence of the element in fish and shellfish caught at Minamata and Niigata, Japan have led not only to local investigations but to multi-national research into the sources and the levels of mercury in the environment. The concentrations at which the element has to be determined in these studies are extremely small, usually of the order of a few parts in 10{sup 9} parts of environmental material. Few analytical techniques provide the required sensitivity for analysis at such low concentrations, and only two are normally used for mercury: neutron activation analysis and atomic absorption photometry. They are also the most convenient end points of various separation schemes for different organic mercury compounds. Mercury analysis at the ppb-level is beset with many problems: volatility of the metal and its compounds, impurity of reagents, interference by other elements and many other analytical difficulties may influence the results. To be able to draw valid conclusions from the analyses it is necessary to know the reliability attached to the values obtained. To assist laboratories in the evaluation of their analytical performance, the International Atomic Energy Agency through its own laboratory at Seibersdorf already organised in 1967 an intercomparison of mercury analysis in flour. Based on the results obtained at that time, a whole series of intercomparisons of mercury determinations in nine different environmental materials was undertaken in 1971. The materials investigated included corn and wheat flour, spray-dried animal blood serum, fish solubles, milk powder, saw dust, cellulose, lacquer paint and coloric material.

  10. Multi-Unit Considerations for Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    St. Germain, S.; Boring, R.; Banaseanu, G.; Akl, Y.; Chatri, H.

    2017-03-01

    This paper uses the insights from the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) methodology to help identify human actions currently modeled in the single unit PSA that may need to be modified to account for additional challenges imposed by a multi-unit accident as well as identify possible new human actions that might be modeled to more accurately characterize multi-unit risk. In identifying these potential human action impacts, the use of the SPAR-H strategy to include both errors in diagnosis and errors in action is considered as well as identifying characteristics of a multi-unit accident scenario that may impact the selection of the performance shaping factors (PSFs) used in SPAR-H. The lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accident will be addressed to further help identify areas where improved modeling may be required. While these multi-unit impacts may require modifications to a Level 1 PSA model, it is expected to have much more importance for Level 2 modeling. There is little currently written specifically about multi-unit HRA issues. A review of related published research will be presented. While this paper cannot answer all issues related to multi-unit HRA, it will hopefully serve as a starting point to generate discussion and spark additional ideas towards the proper treatment of HRA in a multi-unit PSA.

  11. 78 FR 45447 - Revisions to Modeling, Data, and Analysis Reliability Standard

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-29

    ...; Order No. 782] Revisions to Modeling, Data, and Analysis Reliability Standard AGENCY: Federal Energy... Analysis (MOD) Reliability Standard MOD- 028-2, submitted to the Commission for approval by the North... Organization. The Commission finds that the proposed Reliability Standard represents an improvement over the...

  12. Field Programmable Gate Array Reliability Analysis Guidelines for Launch Vehicle Reliability Block Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Hassan, Mohammad; Britton, Paul; Hatfield, Glen Spencer; Novack, Steven D.

    2017-01-01

    Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) integrated circuits (IC) are one of the key electronic components in today's sophisticated launch and space vehicle complex avionic systems, largely due to their superb reprogrammable and reconfigurable capabilities combined with relatively low non-recurring engineering costs (NRE) and short design cycle. Consequently, FPGAs are prevalent ICs in communication protocols and control signal commands. This paper will identify reliability concerns and high level guidelines to estimate FPGA total failure rates in a launch vehicle application. The paper will discuss hardware, hardware description language, and radiation induced failures. The hardware contribution of the approach accounts for physical failures of the IC. The hardware description language portion will discuss the high level FPGA programming languages and software/code reliability growth. The radiation portion will discuss FPGA susceptibility to space environment radiation.

  13. The reliability analysis of cutting tools in the HSM processes

    OpenAIRE

    W.S. Lin

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: This article mainly describe the reliability of the cutting tools in the high speed turning by normaldistribution model.Design/methodology/approach: A series of experimental tests have been done to evaluate the reliabilityvariation of the cutting tools. From experimental results, the tool wear distribution and the tool life are determined,and the tool life distribution and the reliability function of cutting tools are derived. Further, the reliability ofcutting tools at anytime for h...

  14. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safetly, Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

  15. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.

    2008-01-01

    In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

  16. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.

    1996-01-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  17. A cost benefit analysis of outsourced laboratory services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, J A

    1995-11-01

    As healthcare moves toward increased capitation, hospital administrators must be aware of all costs associated with patient services. This article describes the cost benefit analysis process used by northern Indiana hospital consumers during 1994-1995 to evaluate a local laboratory service outsource provider, South Bend Medical Foundation (SBMF). In an effort to meet the best interests of the community at large, three competing hospitals, medical leadership, and the local outsource provider joined forces to ensure that cost effective quality services would be provided. Laboratory utilization patterns for common DRGs were also analyzed. The team created a reconfiguration analysis to help develop benchmark figures for consideration in future contract negotiations.

  18. Reliability analysis of the service water system of Angra 1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tayt-Sohn, L.C.; Oliveira, L.F.S. de.

    1984-01-01

    A reliability analysis of the service water system is done aiming to use in the evaluation of the non reliability of the Component Cooling System (SRC) for great loss of cooling accidents in nuclear power plants. (E.G.) [pt

  19. Reliability analysis of the service water system of Angra 1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Fleming, P.V.; Frutuoso e Melo, P.F.F.; Tayt-Sohn, L.C.

    1983-01-01

    A reliability analysis of the service water system is done aiming to use in the evaluation of the non reliability of the component cooling system (SRC) for great loss of cooling accidents in nuclear power plants. (E.G.) [pt

  20. Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

  1. Comparison of Methods for Dependency Determination between Human Failure Events within Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, M.

    2008-01-01

    The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan human reliability analysis (IJS-HRA) and standardized plant analysis risk human reliability analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance

  2. Comparison of methods for dependency determination between human failure events within human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepis, M.

    2007-01-01

    The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease of subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan - Human Reliability Analysis (IJS-HRA) and Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance. (author)

  3. A cost-benefit analysis for materials management information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slapak-Iacobelli, L; Wilde, A H

    1993-02-01

    The cost-benefit analysis provided the system planners with valuable information that served many purposes. It answered the following questions: Why was the CCF undertaking this project? What were the alternatives? How much was it going to cost? And what was the expected outcome? The process of developing cost-benefit the document kept the project team focused. It also motivated them to involve additional individuals from materials management and accounts payable in its development. A byproduct of this involvement was buy-in and commitment to the project by everyone in these areas. Consequently, the project became a team effort championed by many and not just one. We were also able to introduce two new information system processes: 1) a management review process with goals and anticipated results, and 2) a quality assurance process that ensured the CCF had a better product in the end. The cost-benefit analysis provided a planning tool that assisted in successful implementation of an integrated materials management information system.

  4. Cost-benefit analysis for design of environmentally conscious manufacturing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matysiak, L.M.

    1993-01-01

    In recent years, much attention has been focused on reducing the environmental impacts of products and manufacturing processes. Concerned about rising compliance costs and stringent regulatory requirements, companies are carefully evaluating the environmental impacts of their products. In response, designers, engineers, and managers are beginning to use life-cycle analysis, design for environment techniques, and environmentally conscious manufacturing (ECM) as tools to help them to not only do what is best for the environment, but also to do what is best for their company. These tools are also a useful aid in evaluating the trade-offs that may exist between different product and process alternatives. However, how does one choose the optimal solution from these various product and process alternatives? Cost versus benefit analysis is an effective tool that can be used to evaluate various manufacturing alternatives and to choose a solution that is both cost effective and environmentally compatible. Many companies are beginning to use cost benefit analyses as a means to justify product or process modifications that result in a benefit to the environment

  5. Cost-benefit analysis of reforming Israel's electricity industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tishler, A.; Newman, J.; Spekterman, I.; Woo, C.K.

    2006-01-01

    In June 2003, the Israeli government decided to reform the Israeli electricity industry, which is currently dominated by Israel electric corporation (IEC), a government-owned vertically integrated electric utility. The first step of the planned reform will be taken in 2006, when IEC will be functionally separated into generation, transmission, local distribution, and customer services. Immediately thereafter will be the second step, which by 2012 will result in the deregulation and privatization of the wholesale generation and customer services. Transmission and distribution (T and D) services will remain regulated but will be available to all T and D users under mandatory open access. This paper summarizes a cost-benefit analysis of the government's reform plan. Relative to a regulated regime, the government's plan, even if carried out flawlessly, may only yield a small net benefit. However, it entails a large increase in electricity producer profit and government tax receipt, at the expense of electricity consumers. A less-than-perfect transition to competition can easily wipe out the potential gain of the government plan. Market reform experience to date shows that electricity market reform can easily fail, and the factors for success do not exist in Israel. Since the outcome of a failing reform can be disastrous, it will be imprudent to implement the government's plan in 2006, when the current electricity law expires. Hence, we recommend performance-based regulation for the period of 2006-2010. Subject to an updated cost-benefit analysis, possible decentralization, privatization and competition may follow

  6. Green roof valuation: a probabilistic economic analysis of environmental benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Corrie; Adriaens, Peter; Talbot, F Brian

    2008-03-15

    Green (vegetated) roofs have gained global acceptance as a technologythat has the potential to help mitigate the multifaceted, complex environmental problems of urban centers. While policies that encourage green roofs exist atthe local and regional level, installation costs remain at a premium and deter investment in this technology. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively integrate the range of stormwater, energy, and air pollution benefits of green roofs into an economic model that captures the building-specific scale. Currently, green roofs are primarily valued on increased roof longevity, reduced stormwater runoff, and decreased building energy consumption. Proper valuation of these benefits can reduce the present value of a green roof if investors look beyond the upfront capital costs. Net present value (NPV) analysis comparing a conventional roof system to an extensive green roof system demonstrates that at the end of the green roof lifetime the NPV for the green roof is between 20.3 and 25.2% less than the NPV for the conventional roof over 40 years. The additional upfront investment is recovered at the time when a conventional roof would be replaced. Increasing evidence suggests that green roofs may play a significant role in urban air quality improvement For example, uptake of N0x is estimated to range from $1683 to $6383 per metric ton of NOx reduction. These benefits were included in this study, and results translate to an annual benefit of $895-3392 for a 2000 square meter vegetated roof. Improved air quality leads to a mean NPV for the green roof that is 24.5-40.2% less than the mean conventional roof NPV. Through innovative policies, the inclusion of air pollution mitigation and the reduction of municipal stormwater infrastructure costs in economic valuation of environmental benefits of green roofs can reduce the cost gap that currently hinders U.S. investment in green roof technology.

  7. Operator reliability analysis during NPP small break LOCA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jiong; Chen Shenglin

    1990-01-01

    To assess the human factor characteristic of a NPP main control room (MCR) design, the MCR operator reliability during a small break LOCA is analyzed, and some approaches for improving the MCR operator reliability are proposed based on the analyzing results

  8. Wind turbine reliability : a database and analysis approach.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linsday, James (ARES Corporation); Briand, Daniel; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Benjamin, Allan S. (ARES Corporation)

    2008-02-01

    The US wind Industry has experienced remarkable growth since the turn of the century. At the same time, the physical size and electrical generation capabilities of wind turbines has also experienced remarkable growth. As the market continues to expand, and as wind generation continues to gain a significant share of the generation portfolio, the reliability of wind turbine technology becomes increasingly important. This report addresses how operations and maintenance costs are related to unreliability - that is the failures experienced by systems and components. Reliability tools are demonstrated, data needed to understand and catalog failure events is described, and practical wind turbine reliability models are illustrated, including preliminary results. This report also presents a continuing process of how to proceed with controlling industry requirements, needs, and expectations related to Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety. A simply stated goal of this process is to better understand and to improve the operable reliability of wind turbine installations.

  9. The effect of loss functions on empirical Bayes reliability analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camara Vincent A. R.

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of empirical Bayes estimates of the reliability function with respect to changing of the loss function. In addition to applying some of the basic analytical results on empirical Bayes reliability obtained with the use of the “popular” squared error loss function, we shall derive some expressions corresponding to empirical Bayes reliability estimates obtained with the Higgins–Tsokos, the Harris and our proposed logarithmic loss functions. The concept of efficiency, along with the notion of integrated mean square error, will be used as a criterion to numerically compare our results. It is shown that empirical Bayes reliability functions are in general sensitive to the choice of the loss function, and that the squared error loss does not always yield the best empirical Bayes reliability estimate.

  10. Extending Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Approach for Reliability Analysis at the Software Architecture Design Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sözer, Hasan; Tekinerdogan, B.; Aksit, Mehmet; de Lemos, Rogerio; Gacek, Cristina

    2007-01-01

    Several reliability engineering approaches have been proposed to identify and recover from failures. A well-known and mature approach is the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method that is usually utilized together with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to analyze and diagnose the causes of failures.

  11. Benefit Analysis of Emergency Standby System Promoted to Cogeneration System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyi-Wen Wang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Benefit analysis of emergency standby system combined with absorption chiller promoted to cogeneration system is introduced. Economic evaluations of such upgraded projects play a major part in the decisions made by investors. Time-of-use rate structure, fuel cost and system constraints are taken into account in the evaluation. Therefore, the problem is formulated as a mixed-integer programming problem. Using two-stage methodology and modified mixed-integer programming technique, a novel algorithm is developed and introduced here to solve the nonlinear optimization problem. The net present value (NPV method is used to evaluate the annual benefits and years of payback for the cogeneration system. The results indicate that upgrading standby generators to cogeneration systems is profitable and should be encouraged, especially for those utilities with insufficient spinning reserves, and moreover, for those having difficulty constructing new power plants.

  12. Social Cost Benefit Analysis for Environmental Policy-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Zeeuw, A.; In t Veld, R.; Van Soest, D.; Meuleman, L.; Hoogewoning, P.

    2008-01-01

    Review of the theoretical literature and the current debate on the valuation of environmental goods and services, on the discounting of future benefits and costs, and on how social cost benefit analysis (SCBAs) can be integrated in the policy and decision making process. It is concluded that SCBA can be a good decision support method in environmental policy-making if it is transparent and if all impacts are taken into account. Furthermore, the SCBA process should be participative, and politicians must be prepared to take responsibility for the assumptions behind the SCBA, including the assumptions on valuation and on the discount rate. Such a political role makes each SCBA a unique product of a politically responsible actor, and makes it possible for other stakeholders to have calculated an alternative SCBA based on their own assumptions. This Background Study also contains the proceedings of the international SCBA conference organised by RMNO on 16-17 January 2008

  13. Cost benefit analysis in diagnostic radiology: glossary and definitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golder, W.

    1999-01-01

    Cost efficiency analyses in clinical radiology require the application of methods and techniques that are not yet part of the academic qualifications of the specialists. The procedures used are borrowed from economics, decision theory, applied social sciences, epidemiology and statistics. Many expressions hail from the angloamerican literature and are presently not yet germanized unequivocally. This survey is intended to present main terms of cost efficiency analysis in the English version as well as a German translation, to give a clear definition and, if necessary, explanatory notes, and to illustrate their application by means of concrete radiologic examples. The selection of the terms is based on the hierarchical models of health technology assessment resp. clinical outcome research by Fryback and Thronbury resp. Maisey and Hutton. In concrete terms, both the differences between benefit, outcomes, and utility and the differences between effectiveness, efficacy and efficiency and the differences between direct, indirect, intangible, and marginal costs are explained. True cost efficiency analysis is compared with cost effectiveness analysis, cost identification analysis, cost minimization analysis, and cost utility analysis. Applied social sciences are represented by the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 and the QALY conception. From decision theory both the analysis of hypothetical alternatives and the Markov model are taken. Finally, sensitivity analysis and the procedures of combined statistical evaluation of comparable results (meta-analysis) are quoted. (orig.) [de

  14. Reliability analysis of water distribution systems under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kansal, M.L.; Kumar, Arun; Sharma, P.B.

    1995-01-01

    In most of the developing countries, the Water Distribution Networks (WDN) are of intermittent type because of the shortage of safe drinking water. Failure of a pipeline(s) in such cases will cause not only the fall in one or more nodal heads but also the poor connectivity of source with various demand nodes of the system. Most of the previous works have used the two-step algorithm based on pathset or cutset approach for connectivity analysis. The computations become more cumbersome when connectivity of all demand nodes taken together with that of supply is carried out. In the present paper, network connectivity based on the concept of Appended Spanning Tree (AST) is suggested to compute global network connectivity which is defined as the probability of the source node being connected with all the demand nodes simultaneously. The concept of AST has distinct advantages as it attacks the problem directly rather than in an indirect way as most of the studies so far have done. Since the water distribution system is a repairable one, a general expression for pipeline avialability using the failure/repair rate is considered. Furthermore, the sensitivity of global reliability estimates due to the likely error in the estimation of failure/repair rates of various pipelines is also studied

  15. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

  16. Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems. Markov models are useful in treating dependencies between components. The present paper shows how the adjoint Monte Carlo method for the continuous time Markov process can be derived from the method for the discrete-time Markov process by a limiting process. The straightforward extensions to the treatment of mean unavailability (over a time interval) are given. System unavailabilities can also be estimated; this is done by making the system failed states absorbing, and not permitting repair from them. A forward Monte Carlo method is presented in which the weighting functions are related to the adjoint function. In particular, if the exact adjoint function is known then weighting factors can be constructed such that the exact answer can be obtained with a single Monte Carlo trial. Of course, if the exact adjoint function is known, there is no need to perform the Monte Carlo calculation. However, the formulation is useful since it gives insight into choices of the weight factors which will reduce the variance of the estimator

  17. Reliability analysis of load-sharing systems with memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dewei; Jiang, Chendi; Park, Chanseok

    2018-02-22

    The load-sharing model has been studied since the early 1940s to account for the stochastic dependence of components in a parallel system. It assumes that, as components fail one by one, the total workload applied to the system is shared by the remaining components and thus affects their performance. Such dependent systems have been studied in many engineering applications which include but are not limited to fiber composites, manufacturing, power plants, workload analysis of computing, software and hardware reliability, etc. Many statistical models have been proposed to analyze the impact of each redistribution of the workload; i.e., the changes on the hazard rate of each remaining component. However, they do not consider how long a surviving component has worked for prior to the redistribution. We name such load-sharing models as memoryless. To remedy this potential limitation, we propose a general framework for load-sharing models that account for the work history. Through simulation studies, we show that an inappropriate use of the memoryless assumption could lead to inaccurate inference on the impact of redistribution. Further, a real-data example of plasma display devices is analyzed to illustrate our methods.

  18. Procedure for conducting a human-reliability analysis for nuclear power plants. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, B.J.; Swain, A.D.

    1983-05-01

    This document describes in detail a procedure to be followed in conducting a human reliability analysis as part of a probabilistic risk assessment when such an analysis is performed according to the methods described in NUREG/CR-1278, Handbook for Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications. An overview of the procedure describing the major elements of a human reliability analysis is presented along with a detailed description of each element and an example of an actual analysis. An appendix consists of some sample human reliability analysis problems for further study

  19. Spinal appearance questionnaire: factor analysis, scoring, reliability, and validity testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreon, Leah Y; Sanders, James O; Polly, David W; Sucato, Daniel J; Parent, Stefan; Roy-Beaudry, Marjolaine; Hopkins, Jeffrey; McClung, Anna; Bratcher, Kelly R; Diamond, Beverly E

    2011-08-15

    Cross sectional. This study presents the factor analysis of the Spinal Appearance Questionnaire (SAQ) and its psychometric properties. Although the SAQ has been administered to a large sample of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) treated surgically, its psychometric properties have not been fully evaluated. This study presents the factor analysis and scoring of the SAQ and evaluates its psychometric properties. The SAQ and the Scoliosis Research Society-22 (SRS-22) were administered to AIS patients who were being observed, braced or scheduled for surgery. Standard demographic data and radiographic measures including Lenke type and curve magnitude were also collected. Of the 1802 patients, 83% were female; with a mean age of 14.8 years and mean initial Cobb angle of 55.8° (range, 0°-123°). From the 32 items of the SAQ, 15 loaded on two factors with consistent and significant correlations across all Lenke types. There is an Appearance (items 1-10) and an Expectations factor (items 12-15). Responses are summed giving a range of 5 to 50 for the Appearance domain and 5 to 20 for the Expectations domain. The Cronbach's α was 0.88 for both domains and Total score with a test-retest reliability of 0.81 for Appearance and 0.91 for Expectations. Correlations with major curve magnitude were higher for the SAQ Appearance and SAQ Total scores compared to correlations between the SRS Appearance and SRS Total scores. The SAQ and SRS-22 Scores were statistically significantly different in patients who were scheduled for surgery compared to those who were observed or braced. The SAQ is a valid measure of self-image in patients with AIS with greater correlation to curve magnitude than SRS Appearance and Total score. It also discriminates between patients who require surgery from those who do not.

  20. An efficient phased mission reliability analysis for autonomous vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Remenyte-Prescott, R., E-mail: R.Remenyte-Prescott@nottingham.ac.u [Nottingham Transportation Engineering Centre, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Andrews, J.D. [Nottingham Transportation Engineering Centre, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Chung, P.W.H. [Department of Computer Science, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU (United Kingdom)

    2010-03-15

    Autonomous systems are becoming more commonly used, especially in hazardous situations. Such systems are expected to make their own decisions about future actions when some capabilities degrade due to failures of their subsystems. Such decisions are made without human input, therefore they need to be well-informed in a short time when the situation is analysed and future consequences of the failure are estimated. The future planning of the mission should take account of the likelihood of mission failure. The reliability analysis for autonomous systems can be performed using the methodologies developed for phased mission analysis, where the causes of failure for each phase in the mission can be expressed by fault trees. Unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAVs) are of a particular interest in the aeronautical industry, where it is a long term ambition to operate them routinely in civil airspace. Safety is the main requirement for the UAV operation and the calculation of failure probability of each phase and the overall mission is the topic of this paper. When components or subsystems fail or environmental conditions throughout the mission change, these changes can affect the future mission. The new proposed methodology takes into account the available diagnostics data and is used to predict future capabilities of the UAV in real time. Since this methodology is based on the efficient BDD method, the quickly provided advice can be used in making decisions. When failures occur appropriate actions are required in order to preserve safety of the autonomous vehicle. The overall decision making strategy for autonomous vehicles is explained in this paper. Some limitations of the methodology are discussed and further improvements are presented based on experimental results.

  1. An efficient phased mission reliability analysis for autonomous vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remenyte-Prescott, R.; Andrews, J.D.; Chung, P.W.H.

    2010-01-01

    Autonomous systems are becoming more commonly used, especially in hazardous situations. Such systems are expected to make their own decisions about future actions when some capabilities degrade due to failures of their subsystems. Such decisions are made without human input, therefore they need to be well-informed in a short time when the situation is analysed and future consequences of the failure are estimated. The future planning of the mission should take account of the likelihood of mission failure. The reliability analysis for autonomous systems can be performed using the methodologies developed for phased mission analysis, where the causes of failure for each phase in the mission can be expressed by fault trees. Unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAVs) are of a particular interest in the aeronautical industry, where it is a long term ambition to operate them routinely in civil airspace. Safety is the main requirement for the UAV operation and the calculation of failure probability of each phase and the overall mission is the topic of this paper. When components or subsystems fail or environmental conditions throughout the mission change, these changes can affect the future mission. The new proposed methodology takes into account the available diagnostics data and is used to predict future capabilities of the UAV in real time. Since this methodology is based on the efficient BDD method, the quickly provided advice can be used in making decisions. When failures occur appropriate actions are required in order to preserve safety of the autonomous vehicle. The overall decision making strategy for autonomous vehicles is explained in this paper. Some limitations of the methodology are discussed and further improvements are presented based on experimental results.

  2. Analysis of costs-benefits tradeoffs of complex security systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hicks, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Essential to a systems approach to design of security systems is an analysis of the cost effectiveness of alternative designs. While the concept of analysis of costs and benefits is straightforward, implementation can be at the least tedious and, for complex designs and alternatives, can become nearly intractable without the help of structured analysis tools. PACAIT--Performance and Cost Analysis Integrated Tools--is a prototype tool. The performance side of the analysis collates and reduces data from ASSESS, and existing DOE PC-based security systems performance analysis tool. The costs side of the analysis uses ACE, an existing DOD PC-based costs analysis tool. Costs are reported over the full life-cycle of the system, that is, the costs to procure, operate, maintain and retire the system and all of its components. Results are collected in Microsoft reg-sign Excel workbooks and are readily available to analysts and decision makers in both tabular and graphical formats and at both the system and path-element levels

  3. Distribution-level electricity reliability: Temporal trends using statistical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eto, Joseph H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Larsen, Peter; Todd, Annika; Fisher, Emily

    2012-01-01

    This paper helps to address the lack of comprehensive, national-scale information on the reliability of the U.S. electric power system by assessing trends in U.S. electricity reliability based on the information reported by the electric utilities on power interruptions experienced by their customers. The research analyzes up to 10 years of electricity reliability information collected from 155 U.S. electric utilities, which together account for roughly 50% of total U.S. electricity sales. We find that reported annual average duration and annual average frequency of power interruptions have been increasing over time at a rate of approximately 2% annually. We find that, independent of this trend, installation or upgrade of an automated outage management system is correlated with an increase in the reported annual average duration of power interruptions. We also find that reliance on IEEE Standard 1366-2003 is correlated with higher reported reliability compared to reported reliability not using the IEEE standard. However, we caution that we cannot attribute reliance on the IEEE standard as having caused or led to higher reported reliability because we could not separate the effect of reliance on the IEEE standard from other utility-specific factors that may be correlated with reliance on the IEEE standard. - Highlights: ► We assess trends in electricity reliability based on the information reported by the electric utilities. ► We use rigorous statistical techniques to account for utility-specific differences. ► We find modest declines in reliability analyzing interruption duration and frequency experienced by utility customers. ► Installation or upgrade of an OMS is correlated to an increase in reported duration of power interruptions. ► We find reliance in IEEE Standard 1366 is correlated with higher reported reliability.

  4. Modeling cognition dynamics and its application to human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Smidts, C.; Shen, S.H.

    1996-01-01

    For the past two decades, a number of approaches have been proposed for the identification and estimation of the likelihood of human errors, particularly for use in the risk and reliability studies of nuclear power plants. Despite the wide-spread use of the most popular among these methods, their fundamental weaknesses are widely recognized, and the treatment of human reliability has been considered as one of the soft spots of risk studies of large technological systems. To alleviate the situation, new efforts have focused on the development of human reliability models based on a more fundamental understanding of operator response and its cognitive aspects

  5. The effect of loss functions on empirical Bayes reliability analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent A. R. Camara

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of empirical Bayes estimates of the reliability function with respect to changing of the loss function. In addition to applying some of the basic analytical results on empirical Bayes reliability obtained with the use of the “popular” squared error loss function, we shall derive some expressions corresponding to empirical Bayes reliability estimates obtained with the Higgins–Tsokos, the Harris and our proposed logarithmic loss functions. The concept of efficiency, along with the notion of integrated mean square error, will be used as a criterion to numerically compare our results.

  6. Who gains? allocation of freight transport user benefits from international infrastructure projects in multicountry cost-benefit analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Kristensen, Niels Buus

    2005-01-01

    A public decision by several countries on whether to cofinance an international infrastructure project is the subject of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The CBA elements are broken out and analyzed for each country. The issue of freight user benefits is discussed, and results are derived from...

  7. Social cost benefit analysis of sustainable industrial areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blom, M.J.; Schroten, A.

    2010-05-01

    In restructuring a industrial park many different interests are involved, such as space, business climate, environmental quality or landscape. The social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) is a tool for mapping all current and future pros and cons (expressed in Euros) of a restructuring project for society as a whole as objective as possible. The SCBA manual for sustainable industrial parks describes how an SCBA can be performed and how the results could accommodate decisions made. SCBA pilots have been carried out for restructuring projects in four Dutch municipalities: Katwijk, Rijnwoude, Hardinxveld-Giessendam and Westland. [nl

  8. Cost-benefit analysis for combined heat and power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sazdovski, Ace; Fushtikj, Vangel

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a methodology and practical application of Cost-Benefit Analysis for Combined Heat and Power Plant (Cogeneration facility). Methodology include up-to-date and real data for cogeneration plant in accordance with the trends ill development of the CHP technology. As a case study a CHP plant that could be built-up in Republic of Macedonia is analyzed. The main economic parameters for project evaluation, such as NPV and IRR are calculated for a number of possible scenarios. The analyze present the economic outputs that could be used as a decision for CHP project acceptance for investment. (Author)

  9. Reliability analysis of reinforced concrete grids with nonlinear material behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neves, Rodrigo A [EESC-USP, Av. Trabalhador Sao Carlense, 400, 13566-590 Sao Carlos (Brazil); Chateauneuf, Alaa [LaMI-UBP and IFMA, Campus de Clermont-Fd, Les Cezeaux, BP 265, 63175 Aubiere cedex (France)]. E-mail: alaa.chateauneuf@ifma.fr; Venturini, Wilson S [EESC-USP, Av. Trabalhador Sao Carlense, 400, 13566-590 Sao Carlos (Brazil)]. E-mail: venturin@sc.usp.br; Lemaire, Maurice [LaMI-UBP and IFMA, Campus de Clermont-Fd, Les Cezeaux, BP 265, 63175 Aubiere cedex (France)

    2006-06-15

    Reinforced concrete grids are usually used to support large floor slabs. These grids are characterized by a great number of critical cross-sections, where the overall failure is usually sudden. However, nonlinear behavior of concrete leads to the redistribution of internal forces and accurate reliability assessment becomes mandatory. This paper presents a reliability study on reinforced concrete (RC) grids based on coupling Monte Carlo simulations with the response surface techniques. This approach allows us to analyze real RC grids with large number of failure components. The response surface is used to evaluate the structural safety by using first order reliability methods. The application to simple grids shows the interest of the proposed method and the role of moment redistribution in the reliability assessment.

  10. Analysis of travel time reliability on Indiana interstates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Travel-time reliability is a key performance measure in any transportation system. It is a : measure of quality of travel time experienced by transportation system users and reflects the efficiency : of the transportation system to serve citizens, bu...

  11. Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...obtain a conservative simulation model for reliable design even with limited experimental data. Very little research has taken into account the...3, the proposed conservative model validation is briefly compared to the conventional model validation approach. Section 4 describes how to account

  12. CARES/PC - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szatmary, S. A.

    1994-01-01

    The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES/PC performs statistical analysis of data obtained from the fracture of simple, uniaxial tensile or flexural specimens and estimates the Weibull and Batdorf material parameters from this data. CARES/PC is a subset of the program CARES (COSMIC program number LEW-15168) which calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of ceramic components utilizing the Batdorf and Weibull models to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. CARES additionally requires that the ceramic structure be modeled by a finite element program such as MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS. The more limited CARES/PC does not perform fast-fracture reliability estimation of components. CARES/PC estimates ceramic material properties from uniaxial tensile or from three- and four-point bend bar data. In general, the parameters are obtained from the fracture stresses of many specimens (30 or more are recommended) whose geometry and loading configurations are held constant. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests measure the accuracy of the hypothesis that the fracture data comes from a population with a distribution specified by the estimated Weibull parameters. Ninety-percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters and the unbiased value of the shape parameter for complete samples are provided

  13. Reliability model analysis and primary experimental evaluation of laser triggered pulse trigger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Debiao; Yang Xinglin; Li Yuan; Li Jin

    2012-01-01

    High performance pulse trigger can enhance performance and stability of the PPS. It is necessary to evaluate the reliability of the LTGS pulse trigger, so we establish the reliability analysis model of this pulse trigger based on CARMES software, the reliability evaluation is accord with the statistical results. (authors)

  14. Benefit-cost analysis framework for evaluating inter-city transit investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-10-01

    This report describes the development and application of a benefit/cost analysis (BCA) model to support the evaluation of investment decisions for intercity bus services. The model recognizes two principle types of intercity bus benefits: benefits th...

  15. Reliability analysis for the creep rupture mode of failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaidyanathan, S.

    1975-01-01

    An analytical study has been carried out to relate the factors of safety employed in the design of a component to the probability of failure in the thermal creep rupture mode. The analysis considers the statistical variations in the operating temperature, stress and rupture time, and applies the life fraction damage criterion as the indicator of failure. Typical results for solution annealed type 304-stainless steel material for the temperature and stress variations expected in an LMFBR environment have been obtained. The analytical problem was solved by considering the joint distribution of the independent variables and deriving the distribution for the function associated with the probability of failure by integrating over proper regions as dictated by the deterministic design rule. This leads to a triple integral for the final probability of failure where the coefficients of variation associated with the temperature, stress and rupture time distributions can be specified by the user. The derivation is general, and can be used for time varying stress histories and the case of irradiated material where the rupture time varies with accumulated fluence. Example calculations applied to solution annealed type 304 stainless steel material have been carried out for an assumed coefficient of variation of 2% for temperature and 6% for stress. The results show that the probability of failure associated with dependent stress intensity limits specified in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Section III Code Case 1592 is less than 5x10 -8 . Rupture under thermal creep conditions is a highly complicated phenomenon. It is believed that the present study will help in quantizing the reliability to be expected with deterministic design factors of safety

  16. Cost-benefit analysis of avian influenza control in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karki, S; Lupiani, B; Budke, C M; Karki, N P S; Rushton, J; Ivanek, R

    2015-12-01

    Numerous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A strain H5N1 have occurred in Nepal since 2009 despite implementation of a national programme to control the disease through surveillance and culling of infected poultry flocks. The objective of the study was to use cost-benefit analysis to compare the current control programme (CCP) with the possible alternatives of: i) no intervention (i.e., absence of control measures [ACM]) and ii) vaccinating 60% of the national poultry flock twice a year. In terms of the benefit-cost ratio, findings indicate a return of US $1.94 for every dollar spent in the CCP compared with ACM. The net present value of the CCP versus ACM, i.e., the amount of money saved by implementing the CCP rather than ACM, is US $861,507 (the benefits of CCP [prevented losses which would have occurred under ACM] minus the cost of CCP). The vaccination programme yields a return of US $2.32 for every dollar spent when compared with the CCR The net present value of vaccination versus the CCP is approximately US $12 million. Sensitivity analysis indicated thatthe findings were robust to different rates of discounting, whereas results were sensitive to the assumed market loss and the number of birds affected in the outbreaks under the ACM and vaccination options. Overall, the findings of the study indicate that the CCP is economically superior to ACM, but that vaccination could give greater economic returns and may be a better control strategy. Future research should be directed towards evaluating the financial feasibility and social acceptability of the CCP and of vaccination, with an emphasis on evaluating market reaction to the presence of H5N1 infection in the country.

  17. Reliability analysis of a sensitive and independent stabilometry parameter set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagymáté, Gergely; Orlovits, Zsanett; Kiss, Rita M

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested reduced independent and sensitive parameter sets for stabilometry measurements based on correlation and variance analyses. However, the reliability of these recommended parameter sets has not been studied in the literature or not in every stance type used in stabilometry assessments, for example, single leg stances. The goal of this study is to evaluate the test-retest reliability of different time-based and frequency-based parameters that are calculated from the center of pressure (CoP) during bipedal and single leg stance for 30- and 60-second measurement intervals. Thirty healthy subjects performed repeated standing trials in a bipedal stance with eyes open and eyes closed conditions and in a single leg stance with eyes open for 60 seconds. A force distribution measuring plate was used to record the CoP. The reliability of the CoP parameters was characterized by using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), standard error of measurement (SEM), minimal detectable change (MDC), coefficient of variation (CV) and CV compliance rate (CVCR). Based on the ICC, SEM and MDC results, many parameters yielded fair to good reliability values, while the CoP path length yielded the highest reliability (smallest ICC > 0.67 (0.54-0.79), largest SEM% = 19.2%). Usually, frequency type parameters and extreme value parameters yielded poor reliability values. There were differences in the reliability of the maximum CoP velocity (better with 30 seconds) and mean power frequency (better with 60 seconds) parameters between the different sampling intervals.

  18. Reliability analysis of a sensitive and independent stabilometry parameter set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagymáté, Gergely; Orlovits, Zsanett

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested reduced independent and sensitive parameter sets for stabilometry measurements based on correlation and variance analyses. However, the reliability of these recommended parameter sets has not been studied in the literature or not in every stance type used in stabilometry assessments, for example, single leg stances. The goal of this study is to evaluate the test-retest reliability of different time-based and frequency-based parameters that are calculated from the center of pressure (CoP) during bipedal and single leg stance for 30- and 60-second measurement intervals. Thirty healthy subjects performed repeated standing trials in a bipedal stance with eyes open and eyes closed conditions and in a single leg stance with eyes open for 60 seconds. A force distribution measuring plate was used to record the CoP. The reliability of the CoP parameters was characterized by using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), standard error of measurement (SEM), minimal detectable change (MDC), coefficient of variation (CV) and CV compliance rate (CVCR). Based on the ICC, SEM and MDC results, many parameters yielded fair to good reliability values, while the CoP path length yielded the highest reliability (smallest ICC > 0.67 (0.54–0.79), largest SEM% = 19.2%). Usually, frequency type parameters and extreme value parameters yielded poor reliability values. There were differences in the reliability of the maximum CoP velocity (better with 30 seconds) and mean power frequency (better with 60 seconds) parameters between the different sampling intervals. PMID:29664938

  19. Analysis of NPP protection structure reliability under impact of a falling aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shul'man, G.S.

    1996-01-01

    Methodology for evaluation of NPP protection structure reliability by impact of aircraft fall down is considered. The methodology is base on the probabilistic analysis of all potential events. The problem is solved in three stages: determination of loads on structural units, calculation of local reliability of protection structures by assigned loads and estimation of the structure reliability. The methodology proposed may be applied at the NPP design stage and by determination of reliability of already available structures

  20. Method of reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and fuzzy math in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhaobing; Deng Jian; Cao Xuewu

    2005-01-01

    Reliability allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. It can not only be applied to determine the reliability characteristic of reactor systems, subsystem and main components but also be performed to improve the design, operation and maintenance of nuclear plants. The fuzzy math known as one of the powerful tools for fuzzy optimization and the fault analysis deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis can be applied to the reliability allocation model so as to work out the problems of fuzzy characteristic of some factors and subsystem's choice respectively in this paper. Thus we develop a failure rate allocation model on the basis of the fault tree analysis and fuzzy math. For the choice of the reliability constraint factors, we choose the six important ones according to practical need for conducting the reliability allocation. The subsystem selected by the top-level fault tree analysis is to avoid allocating reliability for all the equipment and components including the unnecessary parts. During the reliability process, some factors can be calculated or measured quantitatively while others only can be assessed qualitatively by the expert rating method. So we adopt fuzzy decision and dualistic contrast to realize the reliability allocation with the help of fault tree analysis. Finally the example of the emergency diesel generator's reliability allocation is used to illustrate reliability allocation model and improve this model simple and applicable. (authors)

  1. Valuation of road safety effects in cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Wim; Wesemann, Paul; de Blaeij, Arianne

    2009-11-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is a common method for evaluating the social economic impact of transport projects, and in many of these projects the saving of human lives is an issue. This implies, within the framework of cost-benefit analysis, that a monetary value should be attached to saving human lives. This paper discusses the 'Value of a Statistical Life' (VoSL), a concept that is often used for monetising safety effects, in the context of road safety. Firstly, the concept of 'willingness to pay' for road safety and its relation to the VoSL are explained. The VoSL approach will be compared to other approaches to monetise safety effects, in particular the human capital approach and 'quality adjusted life years'. Secondly, methods to estimate the VoSL and their applicability to road safety will be discussed. Thirdly, the paper reviews the VoSL estimates that have been found in scientific research and compares them with the values that are used in policy evaluations. Finally, a VoSL study in the Netherlands will be presented as a case study, and its applicability in policy evaluation will be illustrated.

  2. Improvement of human reliability analysis method for PRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanji, Junichi; Fujimoto, Haruo

    2013-09-01

    It is required to refine human reliability analysis (HRA) method by, for example, incorporating consideration for the cognitive process of operator into the evaluation of diagnosis errors and decision-making errors, as a part of the development and improvement of methods used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). JNES has been developed a HRA method based on ATHENA which is suitable to handle the structured relationship among diagnosis errors, decision-making errors and operator cognition process. This report summarizes outcomes obtained from the improvement of HRA method, in which enhancement to evaluate how the plant degraded condition affects operator cognitive process and to evaluate human error probabilities (HEPs) which correspond to the contents of operator tasks is made. In addition, this report describes the results of case studies on the representative accident sequences to investigate the applicability of HRA method developed. HEPs of the same accident sequences are also estimated using THERP method, which is most popularly used HRA method, and comparisons of the results obtained using these two methods are made to depict the differences of these methods and issues to be solved. Important conclusions obtained are as follows: (1) Improvement of HRA method using operator cognitive action model. Clarification of factors to be considered in the evaluation of human errors, incorporation of degraded plant safety condition into HRA and investigation of HEPs which are affected by the contents of operator tasks were made to improve the HRA method which can integrate operator cognitive action model into ATHENA method. In addition, the detail of procedures of the improved method was delineated in the form of flowchart. (2) Case studies and comparison with the results evaluated by THERP method. Four operator actions modeled in the PRAs of representative BWR5 and 4-loop PWR plants were selected and evaluated as case studies. These cases were also evaluated using

  3. Health Monitoring System Technology Assessments: Cost Benefits Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Renee M.; Murphy, Dennis A.

    2000-01-01

    The subject of sensor-based structural health monitoring is very diverse and encompasses a wide range of activities including initiatives and innovations involving the development of advanced sensor, signal processing, data analysis, and actuation and control technologies. In addition, it embraces the consideration of the availability of low-cost, high-quality contributing technologies, computational utilities, and hardware and software resources that enable the operational realization of robust health monitoring technologies. This report presents a detailed analysis of the cost benefit and other logistics and operational considerations associated with the implementation and utilization of sensor-based technologies for use in aerospace structure health monitoring. The scope of this volume is to assess the economic impact, from an end-user perspective, implementation health monitoring technologies on three structures. It specifically focuses on evaluating the impact on maintaining and supporting these structures with and without health monitoring capability.

  4. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A DG INTEGRATED SYSTEM: CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ch. V. S. S. SAILAJA

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Distributed Generation is capable of meeting the load of the consumers partially or completely. Depending on the type of DG involved it can be operated in interconnected mode and islanded mode. The availability of numerous alternatives present for the DG technologies and large initial investments necessitates a detailed cost benefit analysis for the implementation of DG technologies. In this work an attempt has been made to study the costs involved in implementing the DG technologies. A practical system having two kinds of distributed generation i.e., Diesel Generator and solar photovoltaic system for its back up purpose is considered. A detailed cost analysis of the two DG technologies is carried out.

  5. Reliability Analysis Multiple Redundancy Controller for Nuclear Safety Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Gwangseop; Kim, Donghoon; Son, Choulwoong

    2013-01-01

    This controller is configured for multiple modular redundancy (MMR) composed of dual modular redundancy (DMR) and triple modular redundancy (TMR). The architecture of MRC is briefly described, and the Markov model is developed. Based on the model, the reliability and Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) are analyzed. In this paper, the architecture of MRC for nuclear safety systems is described. The MRC is configured for multiple modular redundancy (MMR) composed of dual modular redundancy (DMR) and triple modular redundancy (TMR). Markov models for MRC architecture was developed, and then the reliability was analyzed by using the model. From the reliability analyses for the MRC, it is obtained that the failure rate of each module in the MRC should be less than 2 Χ 10 -4 /hour and the MTTF average increase rate depending on FCF increment, i. e. ΔMTTF/ΔFCF, is 4 months/0.1

  6. Long term reliability analysis of standby diesel generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winfield, D.J.

    1988-01-01

    The long term reliability of 11 diesel generators of 125 to 250 kV A size has been analysed from 26 years of data base information on individual diesel service as standby power supplies for the Chalk River research reactor facilities. Failure to start on demand and failure to run data is presented and failure by diesel subsystem and multiple failures are also analysed. A brief comparison is made with reliability studies of larger diesel generator units used for standby power service in nuclear power plants. (author)

  7. Technical information report: Plasma melter operation, reliability, and maintenance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendrickson, D.W.

    1995-01-01

    This document provides a technical report of operability, reliability, and maintenance of a plasma melter for low-level waste vitrification, in support of the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Vitrification Program. A process description is provided that minimizes maintenance and downtime and includes material and energy balances, equipment sizes and arrangement, startup/operation/maintence/shutdown cycle descriptions, and basis for scale-up to a 200 metric ton/day production facility. Operational requirements are provided including utilities, feeds, labor, and maintenance. Equipment reliability estimates and maintenance requirements are provided which includes a list of failure modes, responses, and consequences

  8. Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

    CERN Document Server

    El Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

  9. Total Longitudinal Moment Calculation and Reliability Analysis of Yacht Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhi, Wenzheng; Lin, Shaofen

    In order to check the reliability of the yacht in FRP (Fiber Reinforce Plastic) materials, in this paper, the vertical force and the calculation method of the overall longitudinal bending moment on yacht was analyzed. Specially, this paper focuses on the impact of speed on the still water bending moment on yacht. Then considering the mechanical properties of the cap type stiffeners in composite materials, the ultimate bearing capacity of the yacht has been worked out, finally the reliability of the yacht was calculated with using response surface methodology. The result can be used in yacht design and yacht driving.

  10. Reliability modeling and analysis of smart power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Karki, Rajesh; Verma, Ajit Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The volume presents the research work in understanding, modeling and quantifying the risks associated with different ways of implementing smart grid technology in power systems in order to plan and operate a modern power system with an acceptable level of reliability. Power systems throughout the world are undergoing significant changes creating new challenges to system planning and operation in order to provide reliable and efficient use of electrical energy. The appropriate use of smart grid technology is an important drive in mitigating these problems and requires considerable research acti

  11. Analysis of Parking Reliability Guidance of Urban Parking Variable Message Sign System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu Mei

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Operators of parking guidance and information systems (PGIS often encounter difficulty in determining when and how to provide reliable car park availability information to drivers. Reliability has become a key factor to ensure the benefits of urban PGIS. The present paper is the first to define the guiding parking reliability of urban parking variable message signs (VMSs. By analyzing the parking choice under guiding and optional parking lots, a guiding parking reliability model was constructed. A mathematical program was formulated to determine the guiding parking reliability of VMS. The procedures were applied to a numerical example, and the factors that affect guiding reliability were analyzed. The quantitative changes of the parking berths and the display conditions of VMS were found to be the most important factors influencing guiding reliability. The parking guiding VMS achieved the best benefit when the parking supply was close to or was less than the demand. The combination of a guiding parking reliability model and parking choice behavior offers potential for PGIS operators to reduce traffic congestion in central city areas.

  12. Exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis with missing data: A simple method for SPSS users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Weaver

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Missing data is a frequent problem for researchers conducting exploratory factor analysis (EFA or reliability analysis. The SPSS FACTOR procedure allows users to select listwise deletion, pairwise deletion or mean substitution as a method for dealing with missing data. The shortcomings of these methods are well-known. Graham (2009 argues that a much better way to deal with missing data in this context is to use a matrix of expectation maximization (EM covariances(or correlations as input for the analysis. SPSS users who have the Missing Values Analysis add-on module can obtain vectors ofEM means and standard deviations plus EM correlation and covariance matrices via the MVA procedure. But unfortunately, MVA has no /MATRIX subcommand, and therefore cannot write the EM correlations directly to a matrix dataset of the type needed as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We describe two macros that (in conjunction with an intervening MVA command carry out the data management steps needed to create two matrix datasets, one containing EM correlations and the other EM covariances. Either of those matrix datasets can then be used asinput to the FACTOR procedure, and the EM correlations can also be used as input to RELIABILITY. We provide an example that illustrates the use of the two macros to generate the matrix datasets and how to use those datasets as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We hope that this simple method for handling missing data will prove useful to both students andresearchers who are conducting EFA or reliability analysis.

  13. A reliable method for the stability analysis of structures ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The detection of structural configurations with singular tangent stiffness matrix is essential because they can be unstable. The secondary paths, especially in unstable buckling, can play the most important role in the loss of stability and collapse of the structure. A new method for reliable detection and accurate computation of ...

  14. Fiber Access Networks: Reliability Analysis and Swedish Broadband Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wosinska, Lena; Chen, Jiajia; Larsen, Claus Popp

    Fiber access network architectures such as active optical networks (AONs) and passive optical networks (PONs) have been developed to support the growing bandwidth demand. Whereas particularly Swedish operators prefer AON, this may not be the case for operators in other countries. The choice depends on a combination of technical requirements, practical constraints, business models, and cost. Due to the increasing importance of reliable access to the network services, connection availability is becoming one of the most crucial issues for access networks, which should be reflected in the network owner's architecture decision. In many cases protection against failures is realized by adding backup resources. However, there is a trade off between the cost of protection and the level of service reliability since improving reliability performance by duplication of network resources (and capital expenditures CAPEX) may be too expensive. In this paper we present the evolution of fiber access networks and compare reliability performance in relation to investment and management cost for some representative cases. We consider both standard and novel architectures for deployment in both sparsely and densely populated areas. While some recent works focused on PON protection schemes with reduced CAPEX the current and future effort should be put on minimizing the operational expenditures (OPEX) during the access network lifetime.

  15. Windfarm Generation Assessment for ReliabilityAnalysis of Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, Nicola Barberis; Holmstrøm, Ole; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...

  16. Windfarm generation assessment for reliability analysis of power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...

  17. A comparative reliability analysis of ETCS train radio communications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermanns, H.; Becker, B.; Jansen, D.N.; Damm, W.; Usenko, Y.S.; Fränzle, M.; Olderog, E.-R.; Podelski, A.; Wilhelm, R.

    StoCharts have been proposed as a UML statechart extension for performance and dependability evaluation, and were applied in the context of train radio reliability assessment to show the principal tractability of realistic cases with this approach. In this paper, we extend on this bare feasibility

  18. Architecture-Based Reliability Analysis of Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Cobra Mariam

    2012-01-01

    In a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), the hierarchical complexity of Web Services (WS) and their interactions with the underlying Application Server (AS) create new challenges in providing a realistic estimate of WS performance and reliability. The current approaches often treat the entire WS environment as a black-box. Thus, the sensitivity…

  19. Erratum: Comparative Analysis of Some Reliability Characteristics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... are analyzed using kolmogorov's forward equation method. Comparisons are performed for specific values of system parameters. Finally, the configurations are ranked based on MTSF and ( AV(∞)) and the results show that configuration 3 is optimal. Keywords: Reliability, Availability, Deterioration, Repair, Replacement.

  20. Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, R.D.

    1993-05-01

    Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption

  1. Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waters, Robert D. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1993-05-01

    Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption.

  2. Reliability of Computer Analysis of Electrocardiograms (ECG) of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Computer programmes have been introduced to electrocardiography (ECG) with most physicians in Africa depending on computer interpretation of ECG. This study was undertaken to evaluate the reliability of computer interpretation of the 12-Lead ECG in the Black race. Methodology: Using the SCHILLER ...

  3. Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

    2014-01-01

    For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

  4. Reliability analysis of the epidural spinal cord compression scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilsky, Mark H; Laufer, Ilya; Fourney, Daryl R; Groff, Michael; Schmidt, Meic H; Varga, Peter Paul; Vrionis, Frank D; Yamada, Yoshiya; Gerszten, Peter C; Kuklo, Timothy R

    2010-09-01

    The evolution of imaging techniques, along with highly effective radiation options has changed the way metastatic epidural tumors are treated. While high-grade epidural spinal cord compression (ESCC) frequently serves as an indication for surgical decompression, no consensus exists in the literature about the precise definition of this term. The advancement of the treatment paradigms in patients with metastatic tumors for the spine requires a clear grading scheme of ESCC. The degree of ESCC often serves as a major determinant in the decision to operate or irradiate. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability and validity of a 6-point, MR imaging-based grading system for ESCC. To determine the reliability of the grading scale, a survey was distributed to 7 spine surgeons who participate in the Spine Oncology Study Group. The MR images of 25 cervical or thoracic spinal tumors were distributed consisting of 1 sagittal image and 3 axial images at the identical level including T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and Gd-enhanced T1-weighted images. The survey was administered 3 times at 2-week intervals. The inter- and intrarater reliability was assessed. The inter- and intrarater reliability ranged from good to excellent when surgeons were asked to rate the degree of spinal cord compression using T2-weighted axial images. The T2-weighted images were superior indicators of ESCC compared with T1-weighted images with and without Gd. The ESCC scale provides a valid and reliable instrument that may be used to describe the degree of ESCC based on T2-weighted MR images. This scale accounts for recent advances in the treatment of spinal metastases and may be used to provide an ESCC classification scheme for multicenter clinical trial and outcome studies.

  5. Agenda-setting for Canadian caregivers: using media analysis of the maternity leave benefit to inform the compassionate care benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykeman, Sarah; Williams, Allison M

    2014-04-24

    The Compassionate Care Benefit was implemented in Canada in 2004 to support employed informal caregivers, the majority of which we know are women given the gendered nature of caregiving. In order to examine how this policy might evolve over time, we examine the evolution of a similar employment insurance program, Canada's Maternity Leave Benefit. National media articles were reviewed (n = 2,698) and, based on explicit criteria, were analyzed using content analysis. Through the application of Kingdon's policy agenda-setting framework, the results define key recommendations for the Compassionate Care Benefit, as informed by the developmental trajectory of the Maternity Leave Benefit. Recommendations for revising the Compassionate Care Benefit are made.

  6. Time-dependent reliability analysis of nuclear reactor operators using probabilistic network models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oka, Y.; Miyata, K.; Kodaira, H.; Murakami, S.; Kondo, S.; Togo, Y.

    1987-01-01

    Human factors are very important for the reliability of a nuclear power plant. Human behavior has essentially a time-dependent nature. The details of thinking and decision making processes are important for detailed analysis of human reliability. They have, however, not been well considered by the conventional methods of human reliability analysis. The present paper describes the models for the time-dependent and detailed human reliability analysis. Recovery by an operator is taken into account and two-operators models are also presented

  7. Reliability Analysis Study of Digital Reactor Protection System in Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Xiao Ming; Liu, Tao; Tong, Jie Juan; Zhao, Jun

    2011-01-01

    The Digital I and C systems are believed to improve a plants safety and reliability generally. The reliability analysis of digital I and C system has become one research hotspot. Traditional fault tree method is one of means to quantify the digital I and C system reliability. Review of advanced nuclear power plant AP1000 digital protection system evaluation makes clear both the fault tree application and analysis process to the digital system reliability. One typical digital protection system special for advanced reactor has been developed, which reliability evaluation is necessary for design demonstration. The typical digital protection system construction is introduced in the paper, and the process of FMEA and fault tree application to the digital protection system reliability evaluation are described. Reliability data and bypass logic modeling are two points giving special attention in the paper. Because the factors about time sequence and feedback not exist in reactor protection system obviously, the dynamic feature of digital system is not discussed

  8. Reliability and statistical power analysis of cortical and subcortical FreeSurfer metrics in a large sample of healthy elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liem, Franziskus; Mérillat, Susan; Bezzola, Ladina; Hirsiger, Sarah; Philipp, Michel; Madhyastha, Tara; Jäncke, Lutz

    2015-03-01

    FreeSurfer is a tool to quantify cortical and subcortical brain anatomy automatically and noninvasively. Previous studies have reported reliability and statistical power analyses in relatively small samples or only selected one aspect of brain anatomy. Here, we investigated reliability and statistical power of cortical thickness, surface area, volume, and the volume of subcortical structures in a large sample (N=189) of healthy elderly subjects (64+ years). Reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient) of cortical and subcortical parameters is generally high (cortical: ICCs>0.87, subcortical: ICCs>0.95). Surface-based smoothing increases reliability of cortical thickness maps, while it decreases reliability of cortical surface area and volume. Nevertheless, statistical power of all measures benefits from smoothing. When aiming to detect a 10% difference between groups, the number of subjects required to test effects with sufficient power over the entire cortex varies between cortical measures (cortical thickness: N=39, surface area: N=21, volume: N=81; 10mm smoothing, power=0.8, α=0.05). For subcortical regions this number is between 16 and 76 subjects, depending on the region. We also demonstrate the advantage of within-subject designs over between-subject designs. Furthermore, we publicly provide a tool that allows researchers to perform a priori power analysis and sensitivity analysis to help evaluate previously published studies and to design future studies with sufficient statistical power. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Cost benefit analysis of recycling nuclear fuel cycle in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jewhan; Chang, Soonheung

    2012-01-01

    Nuclear power has become an essential part of electricity generation to meet the continuous growth of electricity demand. The importance if nuclear waste management has been the main issue since the beginning of nuclear history. The recycling nuclear fuel cycle includes the fast reactor, which can burn the nuclear wastes, and the pyro-processing technology, which can reprocess the spent nuclear fuel. In this study, a methodology using Linear Programming (LP) is employed to evaluate the cost and benefits of introducing the recycling strategy and thus, to see the competitiveness of recycling fuel cycle. The LP optimization involves tradeoffs between the fast reactor capital cost with pyro-processing cost premiums and the total system uranium price with spent nuclear fuel management cost premiums. With the help of LP and sensitivity analysis, the effect of important parameters is presented as well as the target values for each cost and price of key factors

  10. [Disease management programs: Difficulties in the analysis of benefit].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Roland; Horenkamp-Sonntag, D; Bestmann, B; Battmer, U; Heilmann, T; Verheyen, F

    2015-04-01

    After an introduction to the theme with an overview of the implementation of the Disease Management Programs (DMP), accompanying documentation, present utilization and costs of the programs, the present article is primarily devoted to the issue of the analysis of the benefits of DMP. Following an assessment of the legally specified evaluation requirements, in the absence of a prospective, randomized, controlled trial (RCT), the results of three studies are first summarized, which, with the application of propensity score matching, utilize the routine data of the statutory health insurance schemes to form a control group. The overview concludes with a look at the planned changes in evaluation and the intended expansion of the DMP to programs for other chronic illnesses.

  11. Discount rates for social cost benefit analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.A.

    1978-01-01

    The question that this paper addresses is how decisions affecting many citizens should be made when there are uncertain outcomes in the distant future. By distant is meant beyond the lifetimes of individuals alive now. Thus the proposed methodology would apply to many decisions in nuclear energy from the investment in new energy sources such as fusion, to the long-term storage of wastes. Decisions of this type have usually been analyzed using cost benefit analysis. In this case, future outcomes are discounted at the so-called social discount rate. By comparison, the proposed methodology uses information on individual citizen's preferences and willingness to pay to make a future generation better off. The connection between the proposed approach and more traditional discounting techniques is examined using the government decision about storing helium for the future as an example

  12. [Advantages and cost-benefit analysis of various teleradiology scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckermann, D; Wetekam, V; Hundt, W; Reiser, M

    1997-04-01

    With the increasing number of users and technical improvements, there are several application scenarios of teleradiology. To perform a cost-benefit analysis, an approach is presented, which focuses on both monetary and qualitative aspects. Process-related, qualitative and quantitative evaluations are described. The prestudy compares the radiological workflow before and after the introduction of a teleradiology system. A scoring model is part of the qualitative evaluation. The quantitative study focuses on costs and savings. Amortisation and a net present value of savings versus costs can be derived using dynamic investment methods. Savings can be achieved after a short time under ideal conditions, but there is no guarantee for a reimbursement for all systems.

  13. Development and application of a cost-benefit framework for energy reliability. Using probabilistic methods in network planning and regulation to enhance social welfare. The N-1 rule

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nooij, Michiel de; Baarsma, Barbara; Bloemhof, Gabriel; Dijk, Harold; Slootweg, Han

    2010-01-01

    Although electricity is crucial to many activities in developed societies, guaranteeing a maximum reliability of supply to end-users is extremely costly. This situation gives rise to a trade-off between the costs and benefits of reliability. The Dutch government has responded to this trade-off by changing the rule stipulating that electricity networks must be able to maintain supply even if one component fails (known as the N-1 rule), even in maintenance situations. This rule was changed by adding the phrase 'unless the costs exceed the benefits.' We have developed a cost-benefit framework for the implementation and application of this new rule. The framework requires input on failure probability, the cost of supply interruptions to end-users and the cost of investments. A case study of the Dutch grid shows that the method is indeed practicable and that it is highly unlikely that N-1 during maintenance will enhance welfare in the Netherlands. Therefore, including the limitation 'unless the costs exceed the benefits' in the rule has been a sensible policy for the Netherlands, and would also be a sensible policy for other countries. (author)

  14. Depth of manual dismantling analysis: A cost–benefit approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achillas, Ch., E-mail: c.achillas@ihu.edu.gr [School of Economics and Business Administration, International Hellenic University, 14th km Thessaloniki-Moudania, 57001 Thermi (Greece); Aidonis, D. [Department of Logistics, Alexander Technological Educational Institute, Branch of Katerini, 60100 Katerini (Greece); Vlachokostas, Ch.; Karagiannidis, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Loulos, V. [Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Box 483, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece)

    2013-04-15

    Highlights: ► A mathematical modeling tool for OEMs. ► The tool can be used by OEMs, recyclers of electr(on)ic equipment or WEEE management systems’ regulators. ► The tool makes use of cost–benefit analysis in order to determine the optimal depth of product disassembly. ► The reusable materials and the quantity of metals and plastics recycled can be quantified in an easy-to-comprehend manner. - Abstract: This paper presents a decision support tool for manufacturers and recyclers towards end-of-life strategies for waste electrical and electronic equipment. A mathematical formulation based on the cost benefit analysis concept is herein analytically described in order to determine the parts and/or components of an obsolete product that should be either non-destructively recovered for reuse or be recycled. The framework optimally determines the depth of disassembly for a given product, taking into account economic considerations. On this basis, it embeds all relevant cost elements to be included in the decision-making process, such as recovered materials and (depreciated) parts/components, labor costs, energy consumption, equipment depreciation, quality control and warehousing. This tool can be part of the strategic decision-making process in order to maximize profitability or minimize end-of-life management costs. A case study to demonstrate the models’ applicability is presented for a typical electronic product in terms of structure and material composition. Taking into account the market values of the pilot product’s components, the manual disassembly is proven profitable with the marginal revenues from recovered reusable materials to be estimated at 2.93–23.06 €, depending on the level of disassembly.

  15. Depth of manual dismantling analysis: A cost–benefit approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achillas, Ch.; Aidonis, D.; Vlachokostas, Ch.; Karagiannidis, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Loulos, V.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A mathematical modeling tool for OEMs. ► The tool can be used by OEMs, recyclers of electr(on)ic equipment or WEEE management systems’ regulators. ► The tool makes use of cost–benefit analysis in order to determine the optimal depth of product disassembly. ► The reusable materials and the quantity of metals and plastics recycled can be quantified in an easy-to-comprehend manner. - Abstract: This paper presents a decision support tool for manufacturers and recyclers towards end-of-life strategies for waste electrical and electronic equipment. A mathematical formulation based on the cost benefit analysis concept is herein analytically described in order to determine the parts and/or components of an obsolete product that should be either non-destructively recovered for reuse or be recycled. The framework optimally determines the depth of disassembly for a given product, taking into account economic considerations. On this basis, it embeds all relevant cost elements to be included in the decision-making process, such as recovered materials and (depreciated) parts/components, labor costs, energy consumption, equipment depreciation, quality control and warehousing. This tool can be part of the strategic decision-making process in order to maximize profitability or minimize end-of-life management costs. A case study to demonstrate the models’ applicability is presented for a typical electronic product in terms of structure and material composition. Taking into account the market values of the pilot product’s components, the manual disassembly is proven profitable with the marginal revenues from recovered reusable materials to be estimated at 2.93–23.06 €, depending on the level of disassembly

  16. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

    1994-01-01

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

  17. Reliability importance analysis of Markovian systems at steady state using perturbation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phuc Do Van [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France); Barros, Anne [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France)], E-mail: anne.barros@utt.fr; Berenguer, Christophe [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France)

    2008-11-15

    Sensitivity analysis has been primarily defined for static systems, i.e. systems described by combinatorial reliability models (fault or event trees). Several structural and probabilistic measures have been proposed to assess the components importance. For dynamic systems including inter-component and functional dependencies (cold spare, shared load, shared resources, etc.), and described by Markov models or, more generally, by discrete events dynamic systems models, the problem of sensitivity analysis remains widely open. In this paper, the perturbation method is used to estimate an importance factor, called multi-directional sensitivity measure, in the framework of Markovian systems. Some numerical examples are introduced to show why this method offers a promising tool for steady-state sensitivity analysis of Markov processes in reliability studies.

  18. Reliability importance analysis of Markovian systems at steady state using perturbation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phuc Do Van; Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe

    2008-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis has been primarily defined for static systems, i.e. systems described by combinatorial reliability models (fault or event trees). Several structural and probabilistic measures have been proposed to assess the components importance. For dynamic systems including inter-component and functional dependencies (cold spare, shared load, shared resources, etc.), and described by Markov models or, more generally, by discrete events dynamic systems models, the problem of sensitivity analysis remains widely open. In this paper, the perturbation method is used to estimate an importance factor, called multi-directional sensitivity measure, in the framework of Markovian systems. Some numerical examples are introduced to show why this method offers a promising tool for steady-state sensitivity analysis of Markov processes in reliability studies

  19. Development of RBDGG Solver and Its Application to System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol

    2010-01-01

    For the purpose of making system reliability analysis easier and more intuitive, RBDGG (Reliability Block diagram with General Gates) methodology was introduced as an extension of the conventional reliability block diagram. The advantage of the RBDGG methodology is that the structure of a RBDGG model is very similar to the actual structure of the analyzed system, and therefore the modeling of a system for system reliability and unavailability analysis becomes very intuitive and easy. The main idea of the development of the RBDGG methodology is similar with that of the development of the RGGG (Reliability Graph with General Gates) methodology, which is an extension of a conventional reliability graph. The newly proposed methodology is now implemented into a software tool, RBDGG Solver. RBDGG Solver was developed as a WIN32 console application. RBDGG Solver receives information on the failure modes and failure probabilities of each component in the system, along with the connection structure and connection logics among the components in the system. Based on the received information, RBDGG Solver automatically generates a system reliability analysis model for the system, and then provides the analysis results. In this paper, application of RBDGG Solver to the reliability analysis of an example system, and verification of the calculation results are provided for the purpose of demonstrating how RBDGG Solver is used for system reliability analysis

  20. Microgrid Design Analysis Using Technology Management Optimization and the Performance Reliability Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eddy, John P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jensen, Richard P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Munoz-Ramos, Karina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Microgrids are a focus of localized energy production that support resiliency, security, local con- trol, and increased access to renewable resources (among other potential benefits). The Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration for Energy Reliability and Security (SPIDERS) Joint Capa- bility Technology Demonstration (JCTD) program between the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Energy (DOE), and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) resulted in the pre- liminary design and deployment of three microgrids at military installations. This paper is focused on the analysis process and supporting software used to determine optimal designs for energy surety microgrids (ESMs) in the SPIDERS project. There are two key pieces of software, an ex- isting software application developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) called Technology Management Optimization (TMO) and a new simulation developed for SPIDERS called the per- formance reliability model (PRM). TMO is a decision support tool that performs multi-objective optimization over a mixed discrete/continuous search space for which the performance measures are unrestricted in form. The PRM is able to statistically quantify the performance and reliability of a microgrid operating in islanded mode (disconnected from any utility power source). Together, these two software applications were used as part of the ESM process to generate the preliminary designs presented by SNL-led DOE team to the DOD. Acknowledgements Sandia National Laboratories and the SPIDERS technical team would like to acknowledge the following for help in the project: * Mike Hightower, who has been the key driving force for Energy Surety Microgrids * Juan Torres and Abbas Akhil, who developed the concept of microgrids for military instal- lations * Merrill Smith, U.S. Department of Energy SPIDERS Program Manager * Ross Roley and Rich Trundy from U.S. Pacific Command * Bill Waugaman and Bill Beary from U.S. Northern Command * Tarek Abdallah, Melanie

  1. Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis, an Underutilized Safety, Reliability, Project Management and Systems Engineering Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullin, Daniel Richard

    2013-09-01

    The majority of space programs whether manned or unmanned for science or exploration require that a Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) be performed as part of their safety and reliability activities. This comes as no surprise given that FMECAs have been an integral part of the reliability engineer's toolkit since the 1950s. The reasons for performing a FMECA are well known including fleshing out system single point failures, system hazards and critical components and functions. However, in the author's ten years' experience as a space systems safety and reliability engineer, findings demonstrate that the FMECA is often performed as an afterthought, simply to meet contract deliverable requirements and is often started long after the system requirements allocation and preliminary design have been completed. There are also important qualitative and quantitative components often missing which can provide useful data to all of project stakeholders. These include; probability of occurrence, probability of detection, time to effect and time to detect and, finally, the Risk Priority Number. This is unfortunate as the FMECA is a powerful system design tool that when used effectively, can help optimize system function while minimizing the risk of failure. When performed as early as possible in conjunction with writing the top level system requirements, the FMECA can provide instant feedback on the viability of the requirements while providing a valuable sanity check early in the design process. It can indicate which areas of the system will require redundancy and which areas are inherently the most risky from the onset. Based on historical and practical examples, it is this author's contention that FMECAs are an immense source of important information for all involved stakeholders in a given project and can provide several benefits including, efficient project management with respect to cost and schedule, system engineering and requirements management

  2. Reliability analysis of stainless steel piping using a single stress corrosion cracking damage parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guedri, A.

    2013-01-01

    This article presents the results of an investigation that combines standard methods of fracture mechanics, empirical correlations of stress-corrosion cracking, and probabilistic methods to provide an assessment of Intergranular Stress Corrosion Cracking (IGSCC) of stainless steel piping. This is done by simulating the cracking of stainless steel piping under IGSCC conditions using the general methodology recommended in the modified computer program Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events, and by characterizing IGSCC using a single damage parameter. Good correlation between the pipe end-life probability of leak and the damage values were found. These correlations were later used to generalize this probabilistic fracture model. Also, the probability of detection curves and the benefits of in-service inspection in order to reduce the probability of leak for nuclear piping systems subjected to IGSCC were discussed for several pipe sizes. It was found that greater benefits could be gained from inspections for the large pipe as compared to the small pipe sizes. Also, the results indicate that the use of a better inspection procedure can be more effective than a tenfold increase in the number of inspections of inferior quality. -- Highlights: • We simulate the pipe probability of failure under different level of SCC damages. • The residual stresses are adjusted to calibrate the model. • Good correlations between 40-year cumulative leak probabilities and D σ are found. • These correlations were used to generalize this probabilistic fracture model. • We assess the effect of inspection procedures and scenarios on leak probabilities

  3. An evaluation of the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant preventive maintenance program based on reliability centered maintenance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCullough, C.L.; McCullough, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    Reliability centered maintenance (RCM) techniques were used to support a preventative maintenance (PM) upgrade program (PMUP) performed at TVA Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant (BFNP). The purpose of the RCM analysis was to identify critical equipment based on risk and economic importance and to evaluate the PM activities applicable to that equipment. The analysis may be conveniently divided into three steps, which will be outlined in the Approach section of this paper. The net benefit of the RCM approach was a prioritization of the focus of the PM upgrade program so that plant components receive attention proportional to their importance, and assurance that PM activities properly address the most likely component failure causes

  4. Analysis of employee benefits in Factoring KB, a.s.v

    OpenAIRE

    Vachoušek, Stanislav

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this work is to analyze employee benefits - benefits of Factoring KB, a.s. The theoretical part of the generally specifies the basic concepts related to employee benefits needed to cope with the analytical part. The content of this section is primarily a system of employee benefits, classification of employee benefits, tax savings and marginally trends in providing benefits. The analytical part is devoted exclusively to Factoring KB, there is an analysis of employee bene...

  5. Reliability evaluation of nuclear power plants by fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwao, H.; Otsuka, T.; Fujita, I.

    1993-01-01

    As a work sponsored by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, the Safety Information Research Center of NUPEC, using reliability data based on the operational experience of the domestic LWR Plants, has implemented FTA for the standard PWRs and BWRs in Japan with reactor scram due to system failures being at the top event. Up to this point, we have obtained the FT chart and minimal cut set for each type of system failure for qualitative evaluation, and we have estimated system unavailability, Fussell-Vesely importance and risk worth for components for quantitative evaluation. As the second stage of a series in our reliability evaluation work, another program was started to establish a support system. The aim of this system is to assist foreign and domestic plants in creating countermeasures when incidents occur, by providing them with the necessary information using the above analytical method and its results. (author)

  6. Reliability Analysis of Timber Structures through NDT Data Upgrading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sousa, Hélder; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    The first part of this document presents, in chapter 2, a description of timber characteristics and common used NDT and MDT for timber elements. Stochastic models for timber properties and damage accumulation models are also referred. According to timber’s properties a framework is proposed...... for a safety reassessment procedure. For that purpose a theoretical background for structural reliability assessment including probabilistic concepts for structural systems and stochastic models are given in chapter 3. System models, both series and parallel systems, are presented as well as methods...... for robustness are dealt in chapter 5. The second part of this document begins in chapter 6, where a practical application of the premise definitions and methodologies is given through the implementation of upgraded models with NDT and MDT data. Structural life-cycle is, therefore, assessed and reliability...

  7. Reliability analysis of numerical simulation in near field behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Akira; Yamamoto, Kiyohito; Chijimatsu, Masakazu; Fujita, Tomoo

    2008-01-01

    The uncertainties of the boundary conditions, the elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio on the mechanical behavior at near field of high level radioactive waste repository were examined. The method used to examine the error propagation was the first order second moment method. The reliability of the maximum principal stress, maximum shear stress at crown of the tunnel and the minimum principal stress at spring line was examined for one million years. For elastic model, the reliability of the maximum shear stress gradually decreased while that of the maximum principle stress increased. That of the minimum principal stress was relatively low for one million years. This tendency was similar to that from the damage model. (author)

  8. Reliability Analysis of Public Survey in Satisfaction with Nuclear Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Moon Soo; Moon, Joo Hyun; Kang, Chang Sun [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) carried out a questionnaire survey on public's understanding nuclear safety and regulation in order to grasp public acceptance for nuclear energy. The survey was planned to help to analyze public opinion on nuclear energy and provide basic data for advertising strategy and policy development. In this study, based on results of the survey, the reliability of the survey was evaluated according to each nuclear site.

  9. Reliability analysis of Airbus A-330 computer flight management system

    OpenAIRE

    Fajmut, Metod

    2010-01-01

    Diploma thesis deals with digitized, computerized flight control system »Fly-by-wire« and security aspects of the computer system of an aircraft Airbus A330. As for space and military aircraft structures is also in commercial airplanes, much of the financial contribution devoted to reliability. Conventional aircraft control systems have, and some are still, to rely on mechanical and hydraulic connections between the controls on aircraft operated by the pilot and control surfaces. But newer a...

  10. Reliability Analysis of Public Survey in Satisfaction with Nuclear Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Moon Soo; Moon, Joo Hyun; Kang, Chang Sun

    2005-01-01

    Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) carried out a questionnaire survey on public's understanding nuclear safety and regulation in order to grasp public acceptance for nuclear energy. The survey was planned to help to analyze public opinion on nuclear energy and provide basic data for advertising strategy and policy development. In this study, based on results of the survey, the reliability of the survey was evaluated according to each nuclear site

  11. Launch and Assembly Reliability Analysis for Human Space Exploration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Grant; Gelito, Justin; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, William; Goodliff, Kandyce

    2012-01-01

    NASA's future human space exploration strategy includes single and multi-launch missions to various destinations including cis-lunar space, near Earth objects such as asteroids, and ultimately Mars. Each campaign is being defined by Design Reference Missions (DRMs). Many of these missions are complex, requiring multiple launches and assembly of vehicles in orbit. Certain missions also have constrained departure windows to the destination. These factors raise concerns regarding the reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support planned departure. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing launch and assembly reliability in any single DRM or set of DRMs starting with flight hardware manufacturing and ending with final departure to the destination. A discrete event simulation is built for each DRM that includes the pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; ground transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to trans-destination-injection. Each reliability factor can be selectively activated or deactivated so that the most critical risk factors can be identified. This enables NASA to prioritize mitigation actions so as to improve mission success.

  12. Reliability analysis of a complex standby redundant systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, R.; Anantharaman, V.

    1995-01-01

    In any redundant system, the state of the standby unit is usually taken to be hot, warm or cold. In this paper, we present a new model of a two unit standby system wherein the standby unit is put in cold state for a certain amount of time before it is allowed to become warm. Upon failure of the online unit, the standby unit, if in warm state, instantaneously starts operating online; if it is in cold state, an emergency switching is made which takes it to warm state (and hence online) either instantaneously or non-instantaneously--each with some probability; if it is under repair, the system breaks down. Assuming all the associated distributions to be general except that of the life time of the standby unit in the warm state, various reliability characteristics that are of interest to reliability engineers and system designers are derived. A comprehensive cost function is also constructed and is then optimized with respect to three different control parameters numerically. In addition numerical results are presented to illustrate the behaviour of the various reliability characteristics derived

  13. Assessment of modern methods of human factor reliability analysis in PSA studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holy, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: Classical terms and objects (Probabilistic safety assessment as a framework for human reliability assessment; Human failure within the PSA model; Basic types of operator failure modelled in a PSA study and analyzed by HRA methods; Qualitative analysis of human reliability; Quantitative analysis of human reliability used; Process of analysis of nuclear reactor operator reliability in a PSA study); New terms and objects (Analysis of dependences; Errors of omission; Errors of commission; Error forcing context); and Overview and brief assessment of human reliability analysis (Basic characteristics of the methods; Assets and drawbacks of the use of each of HRA method; History and prospects of the use of the methods). (P.A.)

  14. Integration of risk and benefit analysis - The window of benefit as a new tool?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palou, A.; Pico, C.; Keijer, J.

    2009-01-01

    Foods and food components can have positive and/or negative effects on our health, resulting in benefits and risks. At present these are evaluated in largely separated trajectories. In view of assessment, management, and communication, we here propose and argue for an integrated evaluation of risk

  15. Analysis of Critical Earth Observation Priorities for Societal Benefit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zell, E. R.; Huff, A. K.; Carpenter, A. T.; Friedl, L.

    2011-12-01

    To ensure that appropriate near real-time (NRT) and historical Earth observation data are available to benefit society and meet end-user needs, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) sponsored a multi-disciplinary study to identify a set of critical and common Earth observations associated with 9 Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs): Agriculture, Biodiversity, Climate, Disasters, Ecosystems, Energy, Health, Water, and Weather. GEO is an intergovernmental organization working to improve the availability, access, and use of Earth observations to benefit society through a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The study, overseen by the GEO User Interface Committee, focused on the "demand" side of Earth observation needs: which users need what types of data, and when? The methodology for the study was a meta-analysis of over 1,700 publicly available documents addressing Earth observation user priorities, under the guidance of expert advisors from around the world. The result was a ranking of 146 Earth observation parameters that are critical and common to multiple SBAs, based on an ensemble of 4 statistically robust methods. Within the results, key details emerged on NRT observations needed to serve a broad community of users. The NRT observation priorities include meteorological parameters, vegetation indices, land cover and soil property observations, water body and snow cover properties, and atmospheric composition. The results of the study and examples of NRT applications will be presented. The applications are as diverse as the list of priority parameters. For example, NRT meteorological and soil moisture information can support monitoring and forecasting for more than 25 infectious diseases, including epidemic diseases, such as malaria, and diseases of major concern in the U.S., such as Lyme disease. Quickly evolving events that impact forests, such as fires and insect outbreaks, can be monitored and forecasted with a combination of vegetation indices, fuel

  16. Optimizing the design and operation of reactor emergency systems using reliability analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snaith, E.R.

    1975-01-01

    Following a reactor trip various reactor emergency systems, e.g. essential power supplies, emergency core cooling and boiler feed water arrangements are required to operate with a high degree of reliability. These systems must therefore be critically assessed to confirm their capability of operation and determine their reliability of performance. The use of probability analysis techniques enables the potential operating reliability of the systems to be calculated and this can then be compared with the overall reliability requirements. However, a system reliability analysis does much more than calculate an overall reliability value for the system. It establishes the reliability of all parts of the system and thus identifies the most sensitive areas of unreliability. This indicates the areas where any required improvements should be made and enables the overall systems' designs and modes of operation to be optimized, to meet the system and hence the overall reactor safety criteria. This paper gives specific examples of sensitive areas of unreliability that were identified as a result of a reliability analysis that was carried out on a reactor emergency core cooling system. Details are given of modifications to design and operation that were implemented with a resulting improvement in reliability of various reactor sub-systems. The report concludes that an initial calculation of system reliability should represent only the beginning of continuing process of system assessment. Data on equipment and system performance, particularly in those areas shown to be sensitive in their effect on the overall nuclear power plant reliability, should be collected and processed to give reliability data. These data should then be applied in further probabilistic analyses and the results correlated with the original analysis. This will demonstrate whether the required and the originally predicted system reliability is likely to be achieved, in the light of the actual history to date of

  17. Who benefits from the Obio Community Health Insurance Scheme in Rivers State, Nigeria? A benefit incidence analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Kelsey; Akwataghibe, Ngozi; Fakunle, Babatunde; Wolmarans, Liezel

    2016-11-01

    A key aspect of monitoring and evaluating health programs is ensuring that benefits are reaching their target population. We conducted a benefit incidence analysis (BIA) of a Shell-sponsored community health insurance scheme in Nigeria to determine the extent to which the target group (the poor) was benefitting. We examined a sample of 616 patients' hospital attendance, financial and administrative records from 2012-2013. We estimated annual utilization rates and average unit costs for inpatient and outpatient services. We multiplied the two to produce a total cost per patient, then deducted annual out-of-pocket expenditures to estimate the total community-based health insurance scheme benefit per person. Benefits were multiplied by the total number of persons in each socioeconomic group to aggregate benefits. We used concentration curves and dominance tests to determine statistical significance at 5% and 10% levels of significance. Collectively, the poorest 20% of the population received 12% of benefits while the richest quintile received the largest share (23%). Inpatient and outpatient benefits are weakly regressive (pro-rich), statistically significant at a 10% level of significance. Although the poor were found to benefit, this BIA revealed a tendency towards pro-rich distributions. Removing co-payments for the poorest, reducing long wait and visit times and using community volunteers to help increase access to health services may improve benefits for the poor. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Reliability Worth Analysis of Distribution Systems Using Cascade Correlation Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heidari, Alireza; Agelidis, Vassilios; Pou, Josep

    2018-01-01

    Reliability worth analysis is of great importance in the area of distribution network planning and operation. The reliability worth's precision can be affected greatly by the customer interruption cost model used. The choice of the cost models can change system and load point reliability indices....... In this study, a cascade correlation neural network is adopted to further develop two cost models comprising a probabilistic distribution model and an average or aggregate model. A contingency-based analytical technique is adopted to conduct the reliability worth analysis. Furthermore, the possible effects...

  19. Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method; Analiza pouzdanosti reaktorskih sistema primenom metoda verovatnoce

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milivojevic, S [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Serbia and Montenegro)

    1974-12-15

    Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component.

  20. Reliability analysis of the automatic control and power supply of reactor equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monori, Pal; Nagy, J.A.; Meszaros, Zoltan; Konkoly, Laszlo; Szabo, Antal; Nagy, Laszlo

    1988-01-01

    Based on reliability analysis the shortcomings of nuclear facilities are discovered. Fault tree types constructed for the technology of automatic control and for power supply serve as input data of the ORCHARD 2 computer code. In order to charaterize the reliability of the system, availability, failure rates and time intervals between failures are calculated. The results of the reliability analysis of the feedwater system of the Paks Nuclear Power Plant showed that the system consisted of elements of similar reliabilities. (V.N.) 8 figs.; 3 tabs

  1. Application of Vibration and Oil Analysis for Reliability Information on Helicopter Main Rotor Gearbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murrad, Muhamad; Leong, M. Salman

    Based on the experiences of the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF), failure of the main rotor gearbox (MRGB) was one of the major contributing factors to helicopter breakdowns. Even though vibration and oil analysis are the effective techniques for monitoring the health of helicopter components, these two techniques were rarely combined to form an effective assessment tool in MAF. Results of the oil analysis were often used only for oil changing schedule while assessments of MRGB condition were mainly based on overall vibration readings. A study group was formed and given a mandate to improve the maintenance strategy of S61-A4 helicopter fleet in the MAF. The improvement consisted of a structured approach to the reassessment/redefinition suitable maintenance actions that should be taken for the MRGB. Basic and enhanced tools for condition monitoring (CM) are investigated to address the predominant failures of the MRGB. Quantitative accelerated life testing (QALT) was considered in this work with an intent to obtain the required reliability information in a shorter time with tests under normal stress conditions. These tests when performed correctly can provide valuable information about MRGB performance under normal operating conditions which enable maintenance personnel to make decision more quickly, accurately and economically. The time-to-failure and probability of failure information of the MRGB were generated by applying QALT analysis principles. This study is anticipated to make a dramatic change in its approach to CM, bringing significant savings and various benefits to MAF.

  2. Using a Hybrid Cost-FMEA Analysis for Wind Turbine Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nacef Tazi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA has been proven to be an effective methodology to improve system design reliability. However, the standard approach reveals some weaknesses when applied to wind turbine systems. The conventional criticality assessment method has been criticized as having many limitations such as the weighting of severity and detection factors. In this paper, we aim to overcome these drawbacks and develop a hybrid cost-FMEA by integrating cost factors to assess the criticality, these costs vary from replacement costs to expected failure costs. Then, a quantitative comparative study is carried out to point out average failure rate, main cause of failure, expected failure costs and failure detection techniques. A special reliability analysis of gearbox and rotor-blades are presented.

  3. A survey on reliability and safety analysis techniques of robot systems in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, H S; Kim, J H; Lee, J C; Choi, Y R; Moon, S S

    2000-12-01

    The reliability and safety analysis techniques was surveyed for the purpose of overall quality improvement of reactor inspection system which is under development in our current project. The contents of this report are : 1. Reliability and safety analysis techniques suvey - Reviewed reliability and safety analysis techniques are generally accepted techniques in many industries including nuclear industry. And we selected a few techniques which are suitable for our robot system. They are falut tree analysis, failure mode and effect analysis, reliability block diagram, markov model, combinational method, and simulation method. 2. Survey on the characteristics of robot systems which are distinguished from other systems and which are important to the analysis. 3. Survey on the nuclear environmental factors which affect the reliability and safety analysis of robot system 4. Collection of the case studies of robot reliability and safety analysis which are performed in foreign countries. The analysis results of this survey will be applied to the improvement of reliability and safety of our robot system and also will be used for the formal qualification and certification of our reactor inspection system.

  4. A survey on reliability and safety analysis techniques of robot systems in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H.S.; Kim, J.H.; Lee, J.C.; Choi, Y.R.; Moon, S.S.

    2000-12-01

    The reliability and safety analysis techniques was surveyed for the purpose of overall quality improvement of reactor inspection system which is under development in our current project. The contents of this report are : 1. Reliability and safety analysis techniques suvey - Reviewed reliability and safety analysis techniques are generally accepted techniques in many industries including nuclear industry. And we selected a few techniques which are suitable for our robot system. They are falut tree analysis, failure mode and effect analysis, reliability block diagram, markov model, combinational method, and simulation method. 2. Survey on the characteristics of robot systems which are distinguished from other systems and which are important to the analysis. 3. Survey on the nuclear environmental factors which affect the reliability and safety analysis of robot system 4. Collection of the case studies of robot reliability and safety analysis which are performed in foreign countries. The analysis results of this survey will be applied to the improvement of reliability and safety of our robot system and also will be used for the formal qualification and certification of our reactor inspection system

  5. The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaier, Eric M.; Edlich, Alexander; Santmire, Tara S.; Wingrove, Earl R.., III

    1999-01-01

    To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the

  6. Summary of component reliability data for probabilistic safety analysis of Korean standard nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, S. Y.; Han, S. H.

    2004-01-01

    The reliability data of Korean NPP that reflects the plant specific characteristics is necessary for PSA of Korean nuclear power plants. We have performed a study to develop the component reliability DB and S/W for component reliability analysis. Based on the system, we had have collected the component operation data and failure/repair data during plant operation data to 1998/2000 for YGN 3,4/UCN 3,4 respectively. Recently, we have upgraded the database by collecting additional data by 2002 for Korean standard nuclear power plants and performed component reliability analysis and Bayesian analysis again. In this paper, we supply the summary of component reliability data for probabilistic safety analysis of Korean standard nuclear power plant and describe the plant specific characteristics compared to the generic data

  7. Cost benefit analysis of instrumentation, supervision and control systems for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagen, P.

    1973-08-01

    A cost benefit analysis is carried out on a BWR type reactor power plant in which an on-line computer performs plant supervision, reporting, logging, calibration and control functions, using display devices and plotters, while an off-line computer is available for bigger jobs such as fuel management calculations. All on-line functions are briefly described and specified. Three types of computer system are considered, a simplex system, a dual computer system and a multi-processor system. These systems are analysed with respect to reliability, back-up instrumentation requirements and costs. While the multiprocessor system gave in all cases the lowest annual failure costs, the margin to the duplex system was so small that hardware, maintenance and software costs would play an important role in making a decision. (JIW)

  8. Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Jianing; Yan Shaoze

    2011-01-01

    The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

  9. Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu Jianing; Yan Shaoze, E-mail: yansz@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Tribology, Department of Precision Instruments and Mechanology, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 (China)

    2011-07-19

    The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

  10. IAEA Safeguards: Cost/benefit analysis of commercial satellite imagery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Christer

    1999-03-01

    A major milestone in the efforts to strengthen the Safeguards System was reached in May 1997 when the Board of Governors approved a 'Model Protocol Additional to Safeguards Agreements'. The Protocol provides the legal basis necessary to enhance the Agency's ability to detect undeclared nuclear material and activities by using information available from open sources to complement the declarations made by Member States. Commercially available high-resolution satellite data has emerged as one potential complementary open information source to support the traditional and extended Safeguard activities of IAEA. This document constitutes a first report from SSC Satellitbild giving the Agency tentative and initial estimates of the potential cost and time-savings possible with the new proposed technology. The initial cost/benefit simulation will be further finalised in the following 'Implementation Blueprint' study. The general foundation and starting point for the cost/benefit calculation is to simulate a new efficient and relatively small 'imagery unit' within the IAEA, capable of performing advanced image processing as a tool for various safeguards tasks. The image processing capacity is suggested to be task- and interpretation-oriented. The study was performed over a period of 1,5 weeks in late 1998, and is based upon interviews of IAEA staff, reviews of existing IAEA documentation as well as from SSC Satellitbild's long-standing experience of satellite imagery and field missions. The cost/benefit analysis is based on a spreadsheet simulation of five potential applications of commercial satellite imagery: Reference information; Confirmation of Agency acquired and Member State supplied data; Change detection and on-going monitoring; Assessing open source information available to the Agency; Detecting undeclared activities and undeclared sites. The study confirms that the proposed concept of a relatively small 'imagery unit' using high-resolution data will be a sound and

  11. IAEA Safeguards: Cost/benefit analysis of commercial satellite imagery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Christer [SSC Satellitbild AB, Kiruna (Sweden)

    1999-03-01

    A major milestone in the efforts to strengthen the Safeguards System was reached in May 1997 when the Board of Governors approved a `Model Protocol Additional to Safeguards Agreements`. The Protocol provides the legal basis necessary to enhance the Agency`s ability to detect undeclared nuclear material and activities by using information available from open sources to complement the declarations made by Member States. Commercially available high-resolution satellite data has emerged as one potential complementary open information source to support the traditional and extended Safeguard activities of IAEA. This document constitutes a first report from SSC Satellitbild giving the Agency tentative and initial estimates of the potential cost and time-savings possible with the new proposed technology. The initial cost/benefit simulation will be further finalised in the following `Implementation Blueprint` study. The general foundation and starting point for the cost/benefit calculation is to simulate a new efficient and relatively small `imagery unit` within the IAEA, capable of performing advanced image processing as a tool for various safeguards tasks. The image processing capacity is suggested to be task- and interpretation-oriented. The study was performed over a period of 1,5 weeks in late 1998, and is based upon interviews of IAEA staff, reviews of existing IAEA documentation as well as from SSC Satellitbild`s long-standing experience of satellite imagery and field missions. The cost/benefit analysis is based on a spreadsheet simulation of five potential applications of commercial satellite imagery: Reference information; Confirmation of Agency acquired and Member State supplied data; Change detection and on-going monitoring; Assessing open source information available to the Agency; Detecting undeclared activities and undeclared sites. The study confirms that the proposed concept of a relatively small `imagery unit` using high-resolution data will be a sound and

  12. Design and reliability analysis of a novel laser acupuncture device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Boan; Zhong, Fulin; Zhao, Ke; Li, Ting

    2018-02-01

    Acupuncture has a long history of more than 2000 years in China. However, traditional acupuncture adopts metallic needles which may bring discomfort and pricking to patients. Laser acupuncture (LA) is a non-invasive and painless way to achieve some therapeutic effects. And compared to traditional acupuncture, LA is free from infection. Taking these advantages of LA into consideration, we innovatively developed a portable laser acupuncture device with therapy part and detection part together. Therapy part sends out laser at the wavelength of 650 nm onto special acupoints of patients. And detection part includes integrated light-emitting diode (LED, 735/805/850 nm) and photodiode (OPT101). The detection part is used for the data collection for calculation of hemodynamic parameters based on near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). In this work, we carried out current-power test for sensitivity of therapy part. And we also conducted liquid-model optical experiment and arm blocking test for the sensitivity and effectiveness of detection part. The final results demonstrated great potential and reliability of the novel laser acupuncture device. In the future, we will apply this device in clinical applications to verify the effectiveness of the device and improve the reliability for more treatment of diseases.

  13. Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buijs, F.A.; Hall, J.W.; Sayers, P.B.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the underlying theory and a practical process for establishing time-dependent reliability models for components in a realistic and complex flood defence system. Though time-dependent reliability models have been applied frequently in, for example, the offshore, structural safety and nuclear industry, application in the safety-critical field of flood defence has to date been limited. The modelling methodology involves identifying relevant variables and processes, characterisation of those processes in appropriate mathematical terms, numerical implementation, parameter estimation and prediction. A combination of stochastic, hierarchical and parametric processes is employed. The approach is demonstrated for selected deterioration mechanisms in the context of a flood defence system. The paper demonstrates that this structured methodology enables the definition of credible statistical models for time-dependence of flood defences in data scarce situations. In the application of those models one of the main findings is that the time variability in the deterioration process tends to be governed the time-dependence of one or a small number of critical attributes. It is demonstrated how the need for further data collection depends upon the relevance of the time-dependence in the performance of the flood defence system.

  14. On Bayesian reliability analysis with informative priors and censoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.

    1996-01-01

    In the statistical literature many methods have been presented to deal with censored observations, both within the Bayesian and non-Bayesian frameworks, and such methods have been successfully applied to, e.g., reliability problems. Also, in reliability theory it is often emphasized that, through shortage of statistical data and possibilities for experiments, one often needs to rely heavily on judgements of engineers, or other experts, for which means Bayesian methods are attractive. It is therefore important that such judgements can be elicited easily to provide informative prior distributions that reflect the knowledge of the engineers well. In this paper we focus on this aspect, especially on the situation that the judgements of the consulted engineers are based on experiences in environments where censoring has also been present previously. We suggest the use of the attractive interpretation of hyperparameters of conjugate prior distributions when these are available for assumed parametric models for lifetimes, and we show how one may go beyond the standard conjugate priors, using similar interpretations of hyper-parameters, to enable easier elicitation when censoring has been present in the past. This may even lead to more flexibility for modelling prior knowledge than when using standard conjugate priors, whereas the disadvantage of more complicated calculations that may be needed to determine posterior distributions play a minor role due to the advanced mathematical and statistical software that is widely available these days

  15. Application of reliability analysis methods to the comparison of two safety circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Signoret, J.-P.

    1975-01-01

    Two circuits of different design, intended for assuming the ''Low Pressure Safety Injection'' function in PWR reactors are analyzed using reliability methods. The reliability analysis of these circuits allows the failure trees to be established and the failure probability derived. The dependence of these results on test use and maintenance is emphasized as well as critical paths. The great number of results obtained may allow a well-informed choice taking account of the reliability wanted for the type of circuits [fr

  16. Improving the problem analysis in cost-benefit analysis for transport projects : An explorative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, J.A.; Mouter, N.

    2013-01-01

    Key actors (consultants, scientists and policy makers) in the Netherlands transport policy cost-benefit analysis (CBA) practice consider ‘problem analysis’ to be one of the important CBA substantive problems. Their idea is that a good-quality problem analysis can help to identify proper solutions,

  17. Root cause analysis in support of reliability enhancement of engineering components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Sachin; Mishra, Vivek; Joshi, N.S.; Varde, P.V.

    2014-01-01

    Reliability based methods have been widely used for the safety assessment of plant system, structures and components. These methods provide a quantitative estimation of system reliability but do not give insight into the failure mechanism. Understanding the failure mechanism is a must to avoid the recurrence of the events and enhancement of the system reliability. Root cause analysis provides a tool for gaining detailed insights into the causes of failure of component with particular attention to the identification of fault in component design, operation, surveillance, maintenance, training, procedures and policies which must be improved to prevent repetition of incidents. Root cause analysis also helps in developing Probabilistic Safety Analysis models. A probabilistic precursor study provides a complement to the root cause analysis approach in event analysis by focusing on how an event might have developed adversely. This paper discusses the root cause analysis methodologies and their application in the specific case studies for enhancement of system reliability. (author)

  18. Cost benefit analysis for remediation of a nuclear industry landfill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, Tom; Hardisty, Paul; Dennis, Frank; Liddiard, Mark; McClelland, Paul

    2006-01-01

    An old landfill site, licensed to receive inert construction waste, is situated on the top of hard rock cliffs adjacent to the sea at the Dounreay nuclear facility in Scotland. During restoration and investigation work at the landfill, radioactively contaminated material and asbestos was identified. UKAEA subsequently investigated the feasibility of remediating the landfill with the aim of removing any remaining radioactive or otherwise-contaminated material. The cost of landfill remediation would be considerable, making Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) an ideal tool for assessing remediation options. The overall conclusion of the CBA, from a remedial decision making point of view, is that the remediation objective for the landfill should be to reduce any impacts to the current receptors through a comprehensive pathway control scheme. This would be considerably less expensive than even a limited source removal approach. Aggressive source removal objectives are not likely to be economic, even under the most conservative assumptions. A natural monitored attenuation approach will not be economic. All remediation options are considered assuming compliance with the existing regulatory requirements to monitor and cap the landfill before and after closure

  19. Analysis of design tool attributes with regards to sustainability benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zain, S.; Ismail, A. F.; Ahmad, Z.; Adesta, E. Y. T.

    2018-01-01

    The trend of global manufacturing competitiveness has shown a significant shift from profit and customer driven business to a more harmonious sustainability paradigm. This new direction, which emphasises the interests of three pillars of sustainability, i.e., social, economic and environment dimensions, has changed the ways products are designed. As a result, the roles of design tools in the product development stage of manufacturing in adapting to the new strategy are vital and increasingly challenging. The aim of this paper is to review the literature on the attributes of design tools with regards to the sustainability perspective. Four well-established design tools are selected, namely Quality Function Deployment (QFD), Failure Mode and Element Analysis (FMEA), Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) and Design for Environment (DfE). By analysing previous studies, the main attributes of each design tool and its benefits with respect to each sustainability dimension throughout four stages of product lifecycle are discussed. From this study, it is learnt that each of the design tools contributes to the three pillars of sustainability either directly or indirectly, but they are unbalanced and not holistic. Therefore, the prospective of improving and optimising the design tools is projected, and the possibility of collaboration between the different tools is discussed.

  20. Cost benefit analysis for remediation of a nuclear industry landfill

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parker, Tom; Hardisty, Paul [WorleyParsons Komex, Bristol (United Kingdom); Dennis, Frank; Liddiard, Mark; McClelland, Paul [UKAEA, Dounreay (United Kingdom)

    2006-09-15

    An old landfill site, licensed to receive inert construction waste, is situated on the top of hard rock cliffs adjacent to the sea at the Dounreay nuclear facility in Scotland. During restoration and investigation work at the landfill, radioactively contaminated material and asbestos was identified. UKAEA subsequently investigated the feasibility of remediating the landfill with the aim of removing any remaining radioactive or otherwise-contaminated material. The cost of landfill remediation would be considerable, making Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) an ideal tool for assessing remediation options. The overall conclusion of the CBA, from a remedial decision making point of view, is that the remediation objective for the landfill should be to reduce any impacts to the current receptors through a comprehensive pathway control scheme. This would be considerably less expensive than even a limited source removal approach. Aggressive source removal objectives are not likely to be economic, even under the most conservative assumptions. A natural monitored attenuation approach will not be economic. All remediation options are considered assuming compliance with the existing regulatory requirements to monitor and cap the landfill before and after closure.

  1. Reliability analysis of protection systems in NPP applying fault-tree analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bokor, J.; Gaspar, P.; Hetthessy, J.; Szabo, G.

    1998-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the applicability and limits of dependability analysis in nuclear power plants (NPPS) based on the reactor protection refurbishment project (RRP) in NPP Paks. This paper illustrates case studies from the reliability analysis for NPP Paks. It also investigates the solutions for the connection between the data acquisition and subsystem control units (TSs) and the voter units (VTs), it analyzes the influence of the voting in the VT computer level, it studies the effects of the testing procedures to the dependability parameters. (author)

  2. Development of an analysis rule of diagnosis error for standard method of human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, W. D.; Kang, D. I.; Jeong, K. S.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents the status of development of Korea standard method for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), and proposed a standard procedure and rules for the evaluation of diagnosis error probability. The quality of KSNP HRA was evaluated using the requirement of ASME PRA standard guideline, and the design requirement for the standard HRA method was defined. Analysis procedure and rules, developed so far, to analyze diagnosis error probability was suggested as a part of the standard method. And also a study of comprehensive application was performed to evaluate the suitability of the proposed rules

  3. Emergency diesel generator reliability analysis high flux isotope reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merryman, L.; Christie, B.

    1993-01-01

    A program to apply some of the techniques of reliability engineering to the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) was started on August 8, 1992. Part of the program was to track the conditional probabilities of the emergency diesel generators responding to a valid demand. This was done to determine if the performance of the emergency diesel generators (which are more than 25 years old) has deteriorated. The conditional probabilities of the diesel generators were computed and trended for the period from May 1990 to December 1992. The calculations indicate that the performance of the emergency diesel generators has not deteriorated in recent years, i.e., the conditional probabilities of the emergency diesel generators have been fairly stable over the last few years. This information will be one factor than may be considered in the decision to replace the emergency diesel generators

  4. Reliability analysis of GEM® Premier™ technology: a multicenter study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Faggiano

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes how specific blood gas analyzer characteristics can support the emerging clinical and organizational user’s needs while ensuring patient safety. A oneyear data set from two Italian hospitals was analyzed from 10 different blood gas analyzers. Performance measurements in terms of mean down time (MDT were calculated to show how technical characteristics declared by the manufacturer compare to the analyzer availability in real clinical settings. Results show a high level of reliability for the analyzed technology, associated with very low MDT of each sensor integrated in the cartridge. Moreover, results show a high level of efficiency in cartridge usage. Such results are consistent with the specification of the GEM® Premier™ maintenance- free technology and are particularly relevant in the point-of-care testing setting.

  5. The role of human reliability analysis for enhancing crew performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovich, V.; Worledge, D.H.; Spurgin, A.J.

    1986-01-01

    This paper summarizes some aspects of EPRI-sponsored research undertaken in support of improving the PRA technology. In particular, the consideration of how human actions that impact accident sequences can be analyzed in a systematic way to supplement the type of ergonomic studies normally carried out in support of control room design. The HRA/PRA approach described not only identifies the operator information and interface needs, but also helps to identify issues and areas for additional research. The process includes a link to data collections. Preliminary collections of data and analytical benchmark support the idea that such analytical frameworks and models provide support for ranking the importance of various human reliability issues

  6. Towards a non-wired simulator for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurvillier, I.; Laviron, A.; Blin, A.

    1991-11-01

    This paper outlines the objectives and preliminary results of a research programme aiming to increase the advantages of electronic simulators used for reliability studies of complex systems. Research work has resulted in the design of a device based on an electronic simulator capable of carrying out all types of simulation without the drawback of wiring, as is currently the case. Its performance levels as regards speed are comparable to those of wired simulators and this is its main advantage over studies made on a computer. In addition, the simulator is connected to a computer which greatly increases system flexibility and user-friendliness. The first results obtained illustrate what characteristics can be expected of such a system, both as regards the anticipated computation time and the extended processing capabilities (such as the study of common cause failures). (author) [fr

  7. Towards a non-wired simulator for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blin, A.; Laviron, A.; Jurvillier, I.

    1991-08-01

    This paper outlines the objectives and preliminary results of a research programme aiming to increase the advantages of electronic simulators used for reliability studies of complex systems. Research work has resulted in the design of a device based on an electronic simulator capable of carrying out all types of simulation without the drawback of wiring, as is currently the case. Its performance levels as regards speed are comparable to those of wired simulators and this is its main advantage over studies made on a computer. In addition, the simulator is connected to a computer which greatly increases system flexibility and user-friendliness. The first results obtained illustrate what characteristics can be expected of such a system, both as regards the anticipated computation time and the extended processing capabilities (such as the study of common cause failures)

  8. Cost–benefit analysis method for building solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araújo, Catarina; Almeida, Manuela; Bragança, Luís; Barbosa, José Amarilio

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new cost–benefit method was developed to compare building solutions. • The method considers energy performance, life cycle costs and investment willingness. • The graphical analysis helps stakeholders to easily compare building solutions. • The method was applied to a case study showing consistency and feasibility. - Abstract: The building sector is responsible for consuming approximately 40% of the final energy in Europe. However, more than 50% of this consumption can be reduced through energy-efficient measures. Our society is facing not only a severe and unprecedented environmental crisis but also an economic crisis of similar magnitude. In light of this, EU has developed legislation promoting the use of the Cost-Optimal (CO) method in order to improve building energy efficiency, in which selection criteria is based on life cycle costs. Nevertheless, studies show that the implementation of energy-efficient solutions is far from ideal. Therefore, it is very important to analyse the reasons for this gap between theory and implementation as well as improve selection methods. This study aims to develop a methodology based on a cost-effectiveness analysis, which can be seen as an improvement to the CO method as it considers the investment willingness of stakeholders in the selection process of energy-efficient solutions. The method uses a simple graphical display in which the stakeholders’ investment willingness is identified as the slope of a reference line, allowing easy selection between building solutions. This method will lead to the selection of more desired – from stakeholders’ point of view – and more energy-efficient solutions than those selected through the CO method.

  9. Cost-benefit analysis of electrical vehicles. Cars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taszka, Stephane; Domergue, Silvano; Poret, Mathilde; Monnoyer-Smith, Laurence

    2017-07-01

    This study aims at assessing technologies of electrical or hybrid vehicle from a social-economic point of view as well as from a user's point of view by 2020 and 2030, and thus at identifying relevant fields for these technologies. After having recalled some elements of context (Paris agreement, climate change issues for which transport is an important matter of concern, necessity to reduce CO 2 emissions, atmospheric pollution, and sound pollutions), and envisaged solutions (technological advances in engines and motorizations, evolution of mobility behaviours, use of alternate fuels and more particularly of electric and hybrid vehicles), the authors report a social-economic analysis which compares costs and benefits while taking environmental externalities into account, and an analysis of consumer's or user's point of view by using a total cost of ownership (TCO) approach which takes taxation into account. Four technologies are thus studied: thermal vehicles (petrol and diesel), hybrid vehicles, reloadable hybrid vehicles, and fully electrical vehicles. The implemented methodology and general hypotheses are presented. Results are presented and discussed. They show that an electric vehicle could be already profitable in a dense urban environment in 2020, and hybrid technology in 2030. A mixed use (electric propulsion in urban environment, thermal propulsion for inter-urban trips) seems to be the best solution before these both horizons. The study also reports some elements of assessment of the 'smart grid' value of electric vehicle batteries. Appendices propose detailed assessments and indications of sources of pollutant emissions

  10. A financial cost-benefit analysis of eradicating virulent footrot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asheim, Leif Jarle; Hopp, Petter; Grøneng, Gry M; Nafstad, Ola; Hegrenes, Agnar; Vatn, Synnøve

    2017-10-01

    In 2008, virulent footrot was detected in sheep in south-west Norway. Footrot is caused by Dichelobacter nodosus, and the outbreak was linked to live sheep imported from Denmark in 2005. A large-scale program for eradicating the disease was implemented as a joint industry and governmental driven eradication project in the years 2008-2014, and continued with surveillance and control measures by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority from 2015. The cost of the eradication program including surveillance and control measures until 2032 was assumed to reach approximately €10.8 million (NOK 90 million). A financial cost-benefit analysis, comparing costs in the eradication program with costs in two simulated scenarios, was carried out. In the scenarios, designated ModerateSpread (baseline) and SlowSpread, it was assumed that the sheep farmers would undertake some voluntary measures on their own that would slow the spread of the disease. The program obtained a positive NPV after approximately 12 years. In a stochastic analysis, the probabilities of a positive NPV were estimated to 1.000 and to 0.648 after 15 years and to 0.378 and 0.016 after ten years, for the ModerateSpread and SlowSpread scenarios respectively. A rapid start-up of the program soon after the detection of the disease was considered crucial for the economic success as the disease would have become more widespread and probably raised the costs considerably at a later start-up. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Benefits Analysis of Multi-Center Dynamic Weather Routes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheth, Kapil; McNally, David; Morando, Alexander; Clymer, Alexis; Lock, Jennifer; Petersen, Julien

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic weather routes are flight plan corrections that can provide airborne flights more than user-specified minutes of flying-time savings, compared to their current flight plan. These routes are computed from the aircraft's current location to a flight plan fix downstream (within a predefined limit region), while avoiding forecasted convective weather regions. The Dynamic Weather Routes automation has been continuously running with live air traffic data for a field evaluation at the American Airlines Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, TX since July 31, 2012, where flights within the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center are evaluated for time savings. This paper extends the methodology to all Centers in United States and presents benefits analysis of Dynamic Weather Routes automation, if it was implemented in multiple airspace Centers individually and concurrently. The current computation of dynamic weather routes requires a limit rectangle so that a downstream capture fix can be selected, preventing very large route changes spanning several Centers. In this paper, first, a method of computing a limit polygon (as opposed to a rectangle used for Fort Worth Center) is described for each of the 20 Centers in the National Airspace System. The Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool, a nationwide simulation and analysis tool, is used for this purpose. After a comparison of results with the Center-based Dynamic Weather Routes automation in Fort Worth Center, results are presented for 11 Centers in the contiguous United States. These Centers are generally most impacted by convective weather. A breakdown of individual Center and airline savings is presented and the results indicate an overall average savings of about 10 minutes of flying time are obtained per flight.

  12. IEEE guide for general principles of reliability analysis of nuclear power generating station protection systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1975-01-01

    Presented is the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) guide for general principles of reliability analysis of nuclear power generating station protection systems. The document has been prepared to provide the basic principles needed to conduct a reliability analysis of protection systems. Included is information on qualitative and quantitative analysis, guides for failure data acquisition and use, and guide for establishment of intervals

  13. Methodology for reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TONG Lili; CAO Xuewu

    2008-01-01

    Reliability allocation is a difficult multi-objective optimization problem.This paper presents a methodology for reliability allocation that can be applied to determine the reliability characteristics of reactor systems or subsystems.The dualistic contrast,known as one of the most powerful tools for optimization problems,is applied to the reliability allocation model of a typical system in this article.And the fault tree analysis,deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis,is also adopted.Thus a failure rate allocation model based on the fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast is achieved.An application on the emergency diesel generator in the nuclear power plant is given to illustrate the proposed method.

  14. Dynamic decision-making for reliability and maintenance analysis of manufacturing systems based on failure effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ding; Zhang, Yingjie

    2017-09-01

    A framework for reliability and maintenance analysis of job shop manufacturing systems is proposed in this paper. An efficient preventive maintenance (PM) policy in terms of failure effects analysis (FEA) is proposed. Subsequently, reliability evaluation and component importance measure based on FEA are performed under the PM policy. A job shop manufacturing system is applied to validate the reliability evaluation and dynamic maintenance policy. Obtained results are compared with existed methods and the effectiveness is validated. Some vague understandings for issues such as network modelling, vulnerabilities identification, the evaluation criteria of repairable systems, as well as PM policy during manufacturing system reliability analysis are elaborated. This framework can help for reliability optimisation and rational maintenance resources allocation of job shop manufacturing systems.

  15. Human reliability analysis of performing tasks in plants based on fuzzy integral

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washio, Takashi; Kitamura, Yutaka; Takahashi, Hideaki

    1991-01-01

    The effective improvement of the human working conditions in nuclear power plants might be a solution for the enhancement of the operation safety. The human reliability analysis (HRA) gives a methodological basis of the improvement based on the evaluation of human reliability under various working conditions. This study investigates some difficulties of the human reliability analysis using conventional linear models and recent fuzzy integral models, and provides some solutions to the difficulties. The following practical features of the provided methods are confirmed in comparison with the conventional methods: (1) Applicability to various types of tasks (2) Capability of evaluating complicated dependencies among working condition factors (3) A priori human reliability evaluation based on a systematic task analysis of human action processes (4) A conversion scheme to probability from indices representing human reliability. (author)

  16. Low Carbon-Oriented Optimal Reliability Design with Interval Product Failure Analysis and Grey Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yixiong Feng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of large amounts of carbon emissions causes wide concern across the world, and it has become a serious threat to the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. The intensive research into technologies and methodologies for green product design has significant theoretical meaning and practical value in reducing the emissions of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, a low carbon-oriented product reliability optimal design model is proposed in this paper: (1 The related expert evaluation information was prepared in interval numbers; (2 An improved product failure analysis considering the uncertain carbon emissions of the subsystem was performed to obtain the subsystem weight taking the carbon emissions into consideration. The interval grey correlation analysis was conducted to obtain the subsystem weight taking the uncertain correlations inside the product into consideration. Using the above two kinds of subsystem weights and different caution indicators of the decision maker, a series of product reliability design schemes is available; (3 The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs were employed to select the optimal reliability and optimal design scheme based on three attributes, namely, low carbon, correlation and functions, and economic cost. The case study of a vertical CNC lathe proves the superiority and rationality of the proposed method.

  17. Reliability analysis for wind turbines with incomplete failure data collected from after the date of initial installation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Haitao; Watson, Simon; Tavner, Peter; Xiang Jiangping

    2009-01-01

    Reliability has an impact on wind energy project costs and benefits. Both life test data and field failure data can be used for reliability analysis. In wind energy industry, wind farm operators have greater interest in recording wind turbine operating data. However, field failure data may be tainted or incomplete, and therefore it needs a more general mathematical model and algorithms to solve the model. The aim of this paper is to provide a solution to this problem. A three-parameter Weibull failure rate function is discussed for wind turbines and the parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and least squares. Two populations of German and Danish wind turbines are analyzed. The traditional Weibull failure rate function is also employed for comparison. Analysis shows that the three-parameter Weibull function can obtain more accuracy on reliability growth of wind turbines. This work will be helpful in the understanding of the reliability growth of wind energy systems as wind energy technologies evolving. The proposed three-parameter Weibull function is also applicable to the life test of the components that have been used for a period of time, not only in wind energy but also in other industries

  18. Application of Reliability Analysis for Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Christiani, E.

    1995-01-01

    Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of some of the most important failure modes are described. The failures are sliding and slip surface failure of a rubble mound and a clay foundation. Relevant design...

  19. Convergence among Data Sources, Response Bias, and Reliability and Validity of a Structured Job Analysis Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jack E.; Hakel, Milton D.

    1979-01-01

    Examined are questions pertinent to the use of the Position Analysis Questionnaire: Who can use the PAQ reliably and validly? Must one rely on trained job analysts? Can people having no direct contact with the job use the PAQ reliably and validly? Do response biases influence PAQ responses? (Author/KC)

  20. Design and Analysis of Transport Protocols for Reliable High-Speed Communications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oláh, A.

    1997-01-01

    The design and analysis of transport protocols for reliable communications constitutes the topic of this dissertation. These transport protocols guarantee the sequenced and complete delivery of user data over networks which may lose, duplicate and reorder packets. Reliable transport services are