WorldWideScience

Sample records for reliability analysis benefits

  1. Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis: Benefits and Challenges of Simulating Human Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    To date, there has been considerable work on dynamic event trees and other areas related to dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The counterpart to these efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) has centered on the development of specific methods to account for the dynamic nature of human performance. In this paper, the author posits that the key to dynamic HRA is not in the development of specific methods but in the utilization of cognitive modeling and simulation to produce a framework of data that may be used in quantifying the likelihood of human error. This paper provides an overview of simulation approaches to HRA; reviews differences between first, second, and dynamic generation HRA; and outlines potential benefits and challenges of this approach.

  2. Software Architecture Reliability Analysis using Failure Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, B.; Sözer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    2005-01-01

    We propose a Software Architecture Reliability Analysis (SARA) approach that benefits from both reliability engineering and scenario-based software architecture analysis to provide an early reliability analysis of the software architecture. SARA makes use of failure scenarios that are prioritized

  3. Integrated system reliability analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Specific targets: 1) The report shall describe the state of the art of reliability and risk-based assessment of wind turbine components. 2) Development of methodology for reliability and risk-based assessment of the wind turbine at system level. 3) Describe quantitative and qualitative measures...... (indicators) that can be used to assess the reliability of innovations and new technologies....

  4. Wind turbine reliability analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pinar Pérez, Jesús María; García Márquez, Fausto Pedro; Tobias, Andrew Mark; Papaelias, Mayorkinos

    2013-01-01

    Against the background of steadily increasing wind power generation worldwide, wind turbine manufacturers are continuing to develop a range of configurations with different combinations of pitch control, rotor speeds, gearboxes, generators and converters. This paper categorizes the main designs, focusing on their reliability by bringing together and comparing data from a selection of major studies in the literature. These are not particularly consistent but plotting failure rates against hour...

  5. Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    In order to minimise the total expected life-cycle costs of a wind turbine it is important to estimate the reliability level for all components in the wind turbine. This paper deals with reliability analysis for the tower and blades of onshore wind turbines placed in a wind farm. The limit states......) the reliability level for a wind turbine placed in a wind farm is considered, and wake effects from neighbouring wind turbines is taken into account. An illustrative example with calculation of the reliability for mudline bending of the tower is considered. In the example the design is determined according...

  6. A Note on the Validity and Reliability of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Benefit-Risk Assessment of Medicines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Hernandez, Alberto

    2015-11-01

    The comparative evaluation of benefits and risks is one of the most important tasks during the development, market authorization and post-approval pharmacovigilance of medicinal products. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been recommended to support decision making in the benefit-risk assessment (BRA) of medicines. This paper identifies challenges associated with bias or variability that practitioners may encounter in this field and presents solutions to overcome them. The inclusion of overlapping or preference-complementary criteria, which are frequent violations to the assumptions of this model, should be avoided. For each criterion, a value function translates the original outcomes into preference-related scores. Applying non-linear value functions to criteria defined as the risk of suffering a certain event during the study introduces specific risk behaviours in this prescriptive, rather than descriptive, model and is therefore a questionable practice. MCDA uses weights to compare the importance of the model criteria with each other; during their elicitation a frequent situation where (generally favourable) mild effects are directly traded off against low probabilities of suffering (generally unfavourable) severe effects during the study is known to lead to biased and variable weights and ought to be prevented. The way the outcomes are framed during the elicitation process, positively versus negatively for instance, may also lead to differences in the preference weights, warranting an appropriate justification during each implementation. Finally, extending the weighted-sum MCDA model into a fully inferential tool through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is desirable. However, this task is troublesome and should not ignore that clinical trial endpoints generally are positively correlated.

  7. Reliability analysis in intelligent machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcinroy, John E.; Saridis, George N.

    1990-01-01

    Given an explicit task to be executed, an intelligent machine must be able to find the probability of success, or reliability, of alternative control and sensing strategies. By using concepts for information theory and reliability theory, new techniques for finding the reliability corresponding to alternative subsets of control and sensing strategies are proposed such that a desired set of specifications can be satisfied. The analysis is straightforward, provided that a set of Gaussian random state variables is available. An example problem illustrates the technique, and general reliability results are presented for visual servoing with a computed torque-control algorithm. Moreover, the example illustrates the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence at the execution level of an intelligent machine.

  8. Helicobacter pylori update: gastric cancer, reliable therapy, and possible benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, David Y

    2015-04-01

    Helicobacter pylori infection contributes to the development of diverse gastric and extragastric diseases. The infection is necessary but not sufficient for the development of gastric adenocarcinoma. Its eradication would eliminate a major worldwide cause of cancer death, therefore there is much interest in identifying how, if, and when this can be accomplished. There are several mechanisms by which H pylori contributes to the development of gastric cancer. Gastric adenocarcinoma is one of many cancers associated with inflammation, which is induced by H pylori infection, yet the bacteria also cause genetic and epigenetic changes that lead to genetic instability in gastric epithelial cells. H pylori eradication reduces both. However, many factors must be considered in determining whether treating this bacterial infection will prevent cancer or only reduce its risk-these must be considered in designing reliable and effective eradication therapies. Furthermore, H pylori infection has been proposed to provide some benefits, such as reducing the risks of obesity or childhood asthma. When tested, these hypotheses have not been confirmed and are therefore most likely false. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Integration of reliability and tolerance effect analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brombacher, A.C.; de Boer, H.A.; van 't Loo, J.

    1989-01-01

    The authors focus on the development of systems with online optimized reliability. They argue that in the case of online analysis, reliability analysis should have the same importance as functional analysis currently has, and that reliability should be integrated in a design. Further the function of

  10. Reliability Analysis of Money Habitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgadillo, Lucy M.; Bushman, Brittani S.

    2015-01-01

    Use of the Money Habitudes exercise has gained popularity among various financial professionals. This article reports on the reliability of this resource. A survey administered to young adults at a western state university was conducted, and each Habitude or "domain" was analyzed using Cronbach's alpha procedures. Results showed all six…

  11. Reliability analysis of dynamic structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daghigh, M.; Hengst, S.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Boonstra, H.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, the concepts to compute reliabilities for stationary and ergodic conditions in the presence of time-invariant, non-ergodic parameters will first be reviewed. Focus wilt be on numerical techniques like FORM and numerical integration. The effect of correlation between the environmental

  12. Quantifying the Operational Benefits of Conventional and Advanced Pumped Storage Hydro on Reliability and Efficiency: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krad, I.; Ela, E.; Koritarov, V.

    2014-07-01

    Pumped storage hydro (PSH) plants have significant potential to provide reliability and efficiency benefits in future electric power systems with high penetrations of variable generation. New PSH technologies, such as adjustable-speed PSH, have been introduced that can also present further benefits. This paper demonstrates and quantifies some of the reliability and efficiency benefits afforded by PSH plants by utilizing the Flexible Energy Scheduling Tool for the Integration of Variable generation (FESTIV), an integrated power system operations tool that evaluates both reliability and production costs.

  13. Reliability Analysis of Radioamateur Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wawer Tomasz

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The following article describes diagnostic and reliability aspects of amateur radio communications. The intention of precise measuring of quality and accuracy of every contact was present in ham radio from very beginning. The reports were sent and they are still used today, in many variants. In time, the tools to measure ionosphere state and propagation conditions emerged. They are fundamental for communication, especially long distance ones. The article concentrates on description of digital amateur mode, JT9. This mode is very effective, enables worldwide reach and requires simple tools.

  14. Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The purpose of this project is to extend current ground-based Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool to more effectively...

  15. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  16. Statis Program Analysis for Reliable, Trusted Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-01

    devices. App stores also provide a tempting vector for an attacker. An attacker can take advantage of bugdoors (software defects that permit...STATIC PROGRAM ANALYSIS FOR RELIABLE, TRUSTED APPS UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON FEBRUARY 2017 FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE...STATIC PROGRAM ANALYSIS FOR RELIABLE, TRUSTED APPS 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER FA8750-12-2-0107 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 61101E 6. AUTHOR

  17. Production Facility System Reliability Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Crystal Buchanan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Klein, Steven Karl [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-10-06

    This document describes the reliability, maintainability, and availability (RMA) modeling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) design for the Closed Loop Helium Cooling System (CLHCS) planned for the NorthStar accelerator-based 99Mo production facility. The current analysis incorporates a conceptual helium recovery system, beam diagnostics, and prototype control system into the reliability analysis. The results from the 1000 hr blower test are addressed.

  18. Reliability analysis of flood defence systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, H.M.G.M.; Lassing, B.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Waarts, P.H.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years an advanced program for the reliability analysis of flood defence systems has been under development. This paper describes the global data requirements for the application and the setup of the models. The analysis generates the probability of system failure and the contribution of

  19. Incorporating enhanced service reliability of public transport in cost-benefit analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Van Oort, N.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we demonstrate how to calculate the passenger impacts of service unreliability. We show that passengers are affected by longer waiting times and the distribution of travel times. We present a framework to calculate these effects and to express them in monetary values. In the Netherlands and many other countries, service reliability is not explicitly incorporated in cost benefit analyses, although improved service reliability is often one of the main contributions of public tran...

  20. Ethics and Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arler, Finn

    The purpose of this research report is threefold. Firstly, the author traces the origins and justification of cost-benefit analysis in moral and political philosophy. Secondly, he explain some of the basic features of cost-benefit analysis as a planning tool in a step-bystep presentation. Thirdly......, he presents and discusses some of the main ethical difficulties related to the use of cost-benefit analysis as a planning tool....

  1. Reliability Analysis of Elasto-Plastic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1984-01-01

    . Failure of this type of system is defined either as formation of a mechanism or by failure of a prescribed number of elements. In the first case failure is independent of the order in which the elements fail, but this is not so by the second definition. The reliability analysis consists of two parts...... are described and the two definitions of failure can be used by the first formulation, but only the failure definition based on formation of a mechanism by the second formulation. The second part of the reliability analysis is an estimate of the failure probability for the structure on the basis...

  2. Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

    2006-12-01

    Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

  3. Theory of reliable systems. [reliability analysis and on-line fault diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, J. F.

    1974-01-01

    Research is reported in the program to refine the current notion of system reliability by identifying and investigating attributes of a system which are important to reliability considerations, and to develop techniques which facilitate analysis of system reliability. Reliability analysis, and on-line fault diagnosis are discussed.

  4. Human reliability analysis of control room operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo Victor R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    Human reliability is the probability that a person correctly performs some system required action in a required time period and performs no extraneous action that can degrade the system Human reliability analysis (HRA) is the analysis, prediction and evaluation of work-oriented human performance using some indices as human error likelihood and probability of task accomplishment. Significant progress has been made in the HRA field during the last years, mainly in nuclear area. Some first-generation HRA methods were developed, as THERP (Technique for human error rate prediction). Now, an array of called second-generation methods are emerging as alternatives, for instance ATHEANA (A Technique for human event analysis). The ergonomics approach has as tool the ergonomic work analysis. It focus on the study of operator's activities in physical and mental form, considering at the same time the observed characteristics of operator and the elements of the work environment as they are presented to and perceived by the operators. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology to analyze the human reliability of the operators of industrial plant control room, using a framework that includes the approach used by ATHEANA, THERP and the work ergonomics analysis. (author)

  5. Comprehensive proficiency-based inanimate training for robotic surgery: reliability, feasibility, and educational benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, Nabeel A; Dulan, Genevieve; Hogg, Deborah C; Rege, Robert V; Powers, Cathryn E; Tesfay, Seifu T; Hynan, Linda S; Scott, Daniel J

    2012-10-01

    We previously developed a comprehensive proficiency-based robotic training curriculum demonstrating construct, content, and face validity. This study aimed to assess reliability, feasibility, and educational benefit associated with curricular implementation. Over an 11-month period, 55 residents, fellows, and faculty (robotic novices) from general surgery, urology, and gynecology were enrolled in a 2-month curriculum: online didactics, half-day hands-on tutorial, and self-practice using nine inanimate exercises. Each trainee completed a questionnaire and performed a single proctored repetition of each task before (pretest) and after (post-test) training. Tasks were scored for time and errors using modified FLS metrics. For inter-rater reliability (IRR), three trainees were scored by two raters and analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Data from eight experts were analyzed using ICC and Cronbach's α to determine test-retest reliability and internal consistency, respectively. Educational benefit was assessed by comparing baseline (pretest) and final (post-test) trainee performance; comparisons used Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Of the 55 trainees that pretested, 53 (96 %) completed all curricular components in 9-17 h and reached proficiency after completing an average of 72 ± 28 repetitions over 5 ± 1 h. Trainees indicated minimal prior robotic experience and "poor comfort" with robotic skills at baseline (1.8 ± 0.9) compared to final testing (3.1 ± 0.8, p < 0.001). IRR data for the composite score revealed an ICC of 0.96 (p < 0.001). Test-retest reliability was 0.91 (p < 0.001) and internal consistency was 0.81. Performance improved significantly after training for all nine tasks and according to composite scores (548 ± 176 vs. 914 ± 81, p < 0.001), demonstrating educational benefit. This curriculum is associated with high reliability measures, demonstrated feasibility for a large cohort of trainees, and yielded significant educational

  6. Bridging Resilience Engineering and Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2010-06-01

    There has been strong interest in the new and emerging field called resilience engineering. This field has been quick to align itself with many existing safety disciplines, but it has also distanced itself from the field of human reliability analysis. To date, the discussion has been somewhat one-sided, with much discussion about the new insights afforded by resilience engineering. This paper presents an attempt to address resilience engineering from the perspective of human reliability analysis (HRA). It is argued that HRA shares much in common with resilience engineering and that, in fact, it can help strengthen nascent ideas in resilience engineering. This paper seeks to clarify and ultimately refute the arguments that have served to divide HRA and resilience engineering.

  7. Representative Sampling for reliable data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars; Esbensen, Kim Harry

    2005-01-01

    regime in order to secure the necessary reliability of: samples (which must be representative, from the primary sampling onwards), analysis (which will not mean anything outside the miniscule analytical volume without representativity ruling all mass reductions involved, also in the laboratory) and data......) that fully cover all practical aspects of sampling and provides a handy “toolbox” for samplers, engineers, laboratory and scientific personnel....

  8. Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    2010-01-01

    The future use of Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit (LCCB) analysis is discussed in this paper. A more complete analysis including not only the traditional factors and user costs, but also factors which are difficult to include in the analysis is needed in the future.......The future use of Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit (LCCB) analysis is discussed in this paper. A more complete analysis including not only the traditional factors and user costs, but also factors which are difficult to include in the analysis is needed in the future....

  9. The quantitative failure of human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1995-07-01

    This philosophical treatise argues the merits of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the context of the nuclear power industry. Actually, the author attacks historic and current HRA as having failed in informing policy makers who make decisions based on risk that humans contribute to systems performance. He argues for an HRA based on Bayesian (fact-based) inferential statistics, which advocates a systems analysis process that employs cogent heuristics when using opinion, and tempers itself with a rational debate over the weight given subjective and empirical probabilities.

  10. Medicares Hospice Benefit - Analysis of Utilization and..

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Descriptive analyses reported in Medicares Hospice Benefit - Analysis of Utilization and Resource Use, published in Volume 4, Issue 3 of the Medicare and Medicaid...

  11. Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Scarf Joints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Lund, Erik

    2012-01-01

    A probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded scarfed lap joints subjected to static loading is developed. It is representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to flapwise bending. The structural analysis is based on a three dimensional (3D) finite...... the FEA model, and a sensitivity analysis on the influence of various geometrical parameters and material properties on the maximum stress is conducted. Because the yield behavior of many polymeric structural adhesives is dependent on both deviatoric and hydrostatic stress components, different ratios...... of the compressive to tensile adhesive yield stresses in the failure criterion are considered. It is shown that the chosen failure criterion, the scarf angle and the load are significant for the assessment of the probability of failure....

  12. Advanced Interval Management: A Benefit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timer, Sebastian; Peters, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This document is the final report for the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)- sponsored task order 'Possible Benefits for Advanced Interval Management Operations.' Under this research project, Architecture Technology Corporation performed an analysis to determine the maximum potential benefit to be gained if specific Advanced Interval Management (AIM) operations were implemented in the National Airspace System (NAS). The motivation for this research is to guide NASA decision-making on which Interval Management (IM) applications offer the most potential benefit and warrant further research.

  13. R&D program benefits estimation: DOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2006-12-04

    The overall mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) is to lead national efforts to modernize the electric grid, enhance the security and reliability of the energy infrastructure, and facilitate recovery from disruptions to the energy supply. In support of this mission, OE conducts a portfolio of research and development (R&D) activities to advance technologies to enhance electric power delivery. Multiple benefits are anticipated to result from the deployment of these technologies, including higher quality and more reliable power, energy savings, and lower cost electricity. In addition, OE engages State and local government decision-makers and the private sector to address issues related to the reliability and security of the grid, including responding to national emergencies that affect energy delivery. The OE R&D activities are comprised of four R&D lines: High Temperature Superconductivity (HTS), Visualization and Controls (V&C), Energy Storage and Power Electronics (ES&PE), and Distributed Systems Integration (DSI).

  14. Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2005-07-01

    This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probability of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues.

  15. SURE reliability analysis: Program and mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Ricky W.; White, Allan L.

    1988-01-01

    The SURE program is a new reliability analysis tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The computational methods on which the program is based provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

  16. Structural Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiyu Jiang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a detailed review of the state-of-the-art research activities on structural reliability analysis of wind turbines between the 1990s and 2017. We describe the reliability methods including the first- and second-order reliability methods and the simulation reliability methods and show the procedure for and application areas of structural reliability analysis of wind turbines. Further, we critically review the various structural reliability studies on rotor blades, bottom-fixed support structures, floating systems and mechanical and electrical components. Finally, future applications of structural reliability methods to wind turbine designs are discussed.

  17. Software Architecture Reliability Analysis using Failure Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, B.; Sözer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    With the increasing size and complexity of software in embedded systems, software has now become a primary threat for the reliability. Several mature conventional reliability engineering techniques exist in literature but traditionally these have primarily addressed failures in hardware components

  18. Reliability Analysis of Tubular Joints in Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1987-01-01

    Reliability analysis of single tubular joints and offshore platforms with tubular joints is" presented. The failure modes considered are yielding, punching, buckling and fatigue failure. Element reliability as well as systems reliability approaches are used and illustrated by several examples....... Finally, optimal design of tubular.joints with reliability constraints is discussed and illustrated by an example....

  19. Reliability Analysis of Structural Timber Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hoffmeyer, P.

    2000-01-01

    types of redundancy and non-linearity are considered. The statistical characteristics of the load bearing capacity are determined by reliability analysis. Next, more complex systems are considered modelling the mechanical behaviour of timber roof elements I stressed skin panels made of timber. Using...... characteristics of the load-bearing capacity is estimated in the form of a characteristic value and a coefficient of variation. These two values are of primary importance for codes of practice based on the partial safety factor format since the partial safety factor is closely related to the coefficient...... the above stochastic models, statistical characteristics (distribution function, 5% quantile and coefficient of variation) are determined. Generally, the results show that taking the system effects into account the characteristic load bearing capacity can be increased and the partial safety factor decreased...

  20. HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPUTERIZED PROCEDURES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Katya Le Blanc

    2011-09-01

    This paper provides a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures in nuclear power plant control rooms. It is beyond the scope of this paper to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper provides a review of HRA as applied to traditional paper-based procedures, followed by a discussion of what specific factors should additionally be considered in HRAs for computerized procedures. Performance shaping factors and failure modes unique to computerized procedures are highlighted. Since there is no definitive guide to HRA for paper-based procedures, this paper also serves to clarify the existing guidance on paper-based procedures before delving into the unique aspects of computerized procedures.

  1. Human Reliability Analysis for Small Modular Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2012-06-01

    Because no human reliability analysis (HRA) method was specifically developed for small modular reactors (SMRs), the application of any current HRA method to SMRs represents tradeoffs. A first- generation HRA method like THERP provides clearly defined activity types, but these activity types do not map to the human-system interface or concept of operations confronting SMR operators. A second- generation HRA method like ATHEANA is flexible enough to be used for SMR applications, but there is currently insufficient guidance for the analyst, requiring considerably more first-of-a-kind analyses and extensive SMR expertise in order to complete a quality HRA. Although no current HRA method is optimized to SMRs, it is possible to use existing HRA methods to identify errors, incorporate them as human failure events in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and quantify them. In this paper, we provided preliminary guidance to assist the human reliability analyst and reviewer in understanding how to apply current HRA methods to the domain of SMRs. While it is possible to perform a satisfactory HRA using existing HRA methods, ultimately it is desirable to formally incorporate SMR considerations into the methods. This may require the development of new HRA methods. More practicably, existing methods need to be adapted to incorporate SMRs. Such adaptations may take the form of guidance on the complex mapping between conventional light water reactors and small modular reactors. While many behaviors and activities are shared between current plants and SMRs, the methods must adapt if they are to perform a valid and accurate analysis of plant personnel performance in SMRs.

  2. Task Decomposition in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-06-01

    In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down— defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

  3. Models of network reliability analysis, combinatorics, and Monte Carlo

    CERN Document Server

    Gertsbakh, Ilya B

    2009-01-01

    Unique in its approach, Models of Network Reliability: Analysis, Combinatorics, and Monte Carlo provides a brief introduction to Monte Carlo methods along with a concise exposition of reliability theory ideas. From there, the text investigates a collection of principal network reliability models, such as terminal connectivity for networks with unreliable edges and/or nodes, network lifetime distribution in the process of its destruction, network stationary behavior for renewable components, importance measures of network elements, reliability gradient, and network optimal reliability synthesis

  4. Reliability analysis of an offshore structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Rackwitz, R.

    1992-01-01

    A jacket type offshore structure from the North Sea is considered. The time variant reliability is estimated for failure defined as brittle fracture and crack through the tubular member walls. The stochastic modelling is described. The hot spot stress spectral moments as function of the stochastic...... variables are described using spline function response surfaces. A Laplace integral expansion is used to estimate the time variant reliability. Parameter studies are performed for the reliability estimates and the results of the time variant and the time invariant reliability analyses are compared. (Authors)...

  5. Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Rackwitz, R.

    1992-01-01

    A jacket type offshore structure from the North Sea is considered. The time variant reliability is estimated for failure defined as brittie fradure and crack through the tubular roerober walls. The stochastic modeiling is described. The hot spot stress speetral moments as fundion of the stochastic...... variables are desenbed using spline fundion response surfaces. A Laplace integral expansion is used to estimate the time variant reliability. Parameter studies are performed for the reliability estimates and the results of the time variant and the time invariant reliability analyses are compared....

  6. Gate-Level Circuit Reliability Analysis: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ran Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Circuit reliability has become a growing concern in today’s nanoelectronics, which motivates strong research interest over the years in reliability analysis and reliability-oriented circuit design. While quite a few approaches for circuit reliability analysis have been reported, there is a lack of comparative studies on their pros and cons in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. This paper provides an overview of some typical methods for reliability analysis with focus on gate-level circuits, large or small, with or without reconvergent fanouts. It is intended to help the readers gain an insight into the reliability issues, and their complexity as well as optional solutions. Understanding the reliability analysis is also a first step towards advanced circuit designs for improved reliability in the future research.

  7. Reliability Analysis and Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.; Christiani, E.

    1994-01-01

    Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of the most important failure modes, sliding failure, failure of the foundation and overturning failure are described . Relevant design variables are identified and relia......Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of the most important failure modes, sliding failure, failure of the foundation and overturning failure are described . Relevant design variables are identified...

  8. Reliability Analysis of Surface Mount Technology (SMT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-03-01

    380, 1981. 7. J. DeVore; "The Mechanisms of Solderability and Solderability Related Failures," General Electric, WCIII-43, Printed Circuit World Convention...34Thermal Cycles and Surface Mounting Attachment Reliability," Circuit World , Vol. Il, 1985 76. J. Collett; "SMT Solder Joint Reliability," IPC-TP-708

  9. DER Benefits Analysis Studies: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iannucci, J. J.; Cibulka, L.; Eyer, J. M.; Pupp, R. L.

    2003-09-01

    The electric power industry in the United States is undergoing dramatic change. Once totally controlled by utilities that had monopolistic holds on the supply, transmission and distribution of electricity in their service areas, the electric power system is being deregulated, introducing competition among electricity providers who can distinguish themselves by price, services and other factors. The new electric power system will feature advanced technologies and services that can be used on-site or located in close proximity to the load, instead of depending solely upon large, central station generation and transmission. Using a variety of advanced modular generating technologies (including small-scale renewables), distributed energy resource (DER) plants supply base-load power, peaking power, backup power, remote power and/or heating and cooling, and in some cases supply higher and more reliable quality power. Currently, DER represent a minor part of the electric supply system. If the potential of DER is to be realized in the new electric power market, a full understanding of the value and benefits these technologies provide to the electric system is necessary. This report includes 30 key quantitative studies reporting on the values and benefits of distributed energy generation technologies (including renewables) in various applications, as well as a matrix that permits key comparisons.

  10. Individual Differences in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffrey C. Joe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    While human reliability analysis (HRA) methods include uncertainty in quantification, the nominal model of human error in HRA typically assumes that operator performance does not vary significantly when they are given the same initiating event, indicators, procedures, and training, and that any differences in operator performance are simply aleatory (i.e., random). While this assumption generally holds true when performing routine actions, variability in operator response has been observed in multiple studies, especially in complex situations that go beyond training and procedures. As such, complexity can lead to differences in operator performance (e.g., operator understanding and decision-making). Furthermore, psychological research has shown that there are a number of known antecedents (i.e., attributable causes) that consistently contribute to observable and systematically measurable (i.e., not random) differences in behavior. This paper reviews examples of individual differences taken from operational experience and the psychological literature. The impact of these differences in human behavior and their implications for HRA are then discussed. We propose that individual differences should not be treated as aleatory, but rather as epistemic. Ultimately, by understanding the sources of individual differences, it is possible to remove some epistemic uncertainty from analyses.

  11. Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Roger

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project is to extend current ground-based HRA risk prediction techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool. Ground-based HRA methodology has been shown to be a reasonable tool for short-duration space missions, such as Space Shuttle and lunar fly-bys. However, longer-duration deep-space missions, such as asteroid and Mars missions, will require the crew to be in space for as long as 400 to 900 day missions with periods of extended autonomy and self-sufficiency. Current indications show higher risk due to fatigue, physiological effects due to extended low gravity environments, and others, may impact HRA predictions. For this project, Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) will work with Human Health & Performance (HH&P) to establish what is currently used to assess human reliabiilty for human space programs, identify human performance factors that may be sensitive to long duration space flight, collect available historical data, and update current tools to account for performance shaping factors believed to be important to such missions. This effort will also contribute data to the Human Performance Data Repository and influence the Space Human Factors Engineering research risks and gaps (part of the HRP Program). An accurate risk predictor mitigates Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM).The end result will be an updated HRA model that can effectively predict risk on long-duration missions.

  12. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu V.S.

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Power distribution systems are basic parts of power systems and reliability of these systems at present is a key issue for power engineering development and requires special attention. Operation of distribution systems is accompanied by a number of factors that produce random data a large number of unplanned interruptions. Research has shown that the predominant factors that have a significant influence on the reliability of distribution systems are: weather conditions (39.7%, defects in equipment(25% and unknown random factors (20.1%. In the article is studied the influence of random behavior and are presented estimations of reliability of predominantly rural electrical distribution systems.

  13. High efficiency lighting: Cost benefit analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Franco, N. (ENEA, Rome (Italy))

    1992-12-01

    Analysis of the incandescent and fluorescent lamp market in Italy reveals that, by the substitution of conventional equipment with high efficiency lamps, energy savings of up to 3.5 billion kWh could be realized. However, the proper selection of these highly efficient lamps, e.g., compact fluorescent, fluorescent systems using electronic reactors, outdoor systems using sodium or metal iodides, etc., requires a thorough and accurate cost benefit analysis. This article suggests a calculation model for a cost evaluation beginning from the technical and economic aspects of alternative appliances.

  14. Reliability in perceptual analysis of voice quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bele, Irene Velsvik

    2005-12-01

    This study focuses on speaking voice quality in male teachers (n = 35) and male actors (n = 36), who represent untrained and trained voice users, because we wanted to investigate normal and supranormal voices. In this study, both substantial and methodologic aspects were considered. It includes a method for perceptual voice evaluation, and a basic issue was rater reliability. A listening group of 10 listeners, 7 experienced speech-language therapists, and 3 speech-language therapist students evaluated the voices by 15 vocal characteristics using VA scales. Two sets of voice signals were investigated: text reading (2 loudness levels) and sustained vowel (3 levels). The results indicated a high interrater reliability for most perceptual characteristics. Connected speech was evaluated more reliably, especially at the normal level, but both types of voice signals were evaluated reliably, although the reliability for connected speech was somewhat higher than for vowels. Experienced listeners tended to be more consistent in their ratings than did the student raters. Some vocal characteristics achieved acceptable reliability even with a smaller panel of listeners. The perceptual characteristics grouped in 4 factors reflected perceptual dimensions.

  15. Key Reliability Drivers of Liquid Propulsion Engines and A Reliability Model for Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhao-Feng; Fint, Jeffry A.; Kuck, Frederick M.

    2005-01-01

    This paper is to address the in-flight reliability of a liquid propulsion engine system for a launch vehicle. We first establish a comprehensive list of system and sub-system reliability drivers for any liquid propulsion engine system. We then build a reliability model to parametrically analyze the impact of some reliability parameters. We present sensitivity analysis results for a selected subset of the key reliability drivers using the model. Reliability drivers identified include: number of engines for the liquid propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine thrust size, reusability, engine de-rating or up-rating, engine-out design (including engine-out switching reliability, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction), propellant specific hazards, engine start and cutoff transient hazards, engine combustion cycles, vehicle and engine interface and interaction hazards, engine health management system, engine modification, engine ground start hold down with launch commit criteria, engine altitude start (1 in. start), Multiple altitude restart (less than 1 restart), component, subsystem and system design, manufacturing/ground operation support/pre and post flight check outs and inspection, extensiveness of the development program. We present some sensitivity analysis results for the following subset of the drivers: number of engines for the propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine de-rating or up-rating requirements, engine-out design, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction, and engine health management system implementation (basic redlines and more advanced health management systems).

  16. Mathematical Methods in Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life

    CERN Document Server

    Huber, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir

    2008-01-01

    Reliability and survival analysis are important applications of stochastic mathematics (probability, statistics and stochastic processes) that are usually covered separately in spite of the similarity of the involved mathematical theory. This title aims to redress this situation: it includes 21 chapters divided into four parts: Survival analysis, Reliability, Quality of life, and Related topics. Many of these chapters were presented at the European Seminar on Mathematical Methods for Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life in 2006.

  17. Failures Analysis and Reliability Calculation for Power Transformers

    OpenAIRE

    Mirzai, M; A Gholami; F. Aminifar

    2006-01-01

    Failures of transformers in sub-transmission systems not only reduce reliability of power system but also have significant effects on power quality since one of the important components of any system quality is reliability of that system. To enhance utility reliability, failure analysis and its rates, failure origin and physical damage causes must be studied. This paper describes a case study of the reliability of sub-transmission transformers (63/20 KV) installed in Mazandaran province, oper...

  18. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald Laurids Boring

    2010-11-01

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  19. Benefit Analysis for Geothermal Log Interpretation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rigby, F.A.

    1980-12-16

    Formation evaluation is of great importance in geothermal development because of the high capital costs and the fact that successful exploration will only pay off through a subsequent decision to construct a power plant or other utilization facility. Since much formation data is available from well logging, development of new techniques of log interpretation for application to geothermal wells is called for. An analysis of potential nearterm benefits from this program and the types of formation data called for is discussed. Much useful information can be developed by adaptation of techniques used in oil and gas reservoirs, but the different demands of geothermal development from hydrocarbon production also open up new data requirements.

  20. Fatigue Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Brincker, Rune

    1991-01-01

    In this paper, a fatigue reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure mode, fatigue failure in the butt welds, is investigated with two different models. The one with the fatigue strength expressed through SN relations, the other with the fatigue strength expressed...... through linear-elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). In determining the cumulative fatigue damage, Palmgren-Miner's rule is applied. Element reliability, as well as systems reliability, is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The sensitivity of the systems reliability to various parameters...... is investigated. The systems reliability index, estimated by using the fatigue elements with the fatigue strength expressed through SN relations, is found to be smaller than the systems reliability index estimated by using LEFM. It is shown that the systems reliability index is very sensitive to variations...

  1. Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Rackwitz, R.; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1992-01-01

    For an offshore structure in the North Sea it is assumed that information from measurements and inspections is available. As illustrations measurements of the significant wave height and the marine growth and different inspection and repair results are considered. It is shown how the reliability...

  2. Bypassing BDD Construction for Reliability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Williams, Poul Frederick; Nikolskaia, Macha; Rauzy, Antoine

    2000-01-01

    In this note, we propose a Boolean Expression Diagram (BED)-based algorithm to compute the minimal p-cuts of boolean reliability models such as fault trees. BEDs make it possible to bypass the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) construction, which is the main cost of fault tree assessment....

  3. TIGER reliability analysis in the DSN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, J. M.

    1982-01-01

    The TIGER algorithm, the inputs to the program and the output are described. TIGER is a computer program designed to simulate a system over a period of time to evaluate system reliability and availability. Results can be used in the Deep Space Network for initial spares provisioning and system evaluation.

  4. Physical-Mechanisms Based Reliability Analysis For Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-05

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2017-0095 PHYSICAL-MECHANISMS BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Ron Schrimpf VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY 110 21ST...SUBTITLE PHYSICAL-MECHANISMS BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES 5a.  CONTRACT NUMBER 5b.  GRANT NUMBER FA9550-11-1-0307 5c.  PROGRAM...order to ensure technical superiority for US forces, but at the same time, levels of reliability exceeding those of commercial systems are required

  5. Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, a reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. Te failure modes considered are yielding in the tube cross sections and fatigue failure in the butts welds. The fatigue failrue mode is investigated with a fatigue model, where the fatigue strength is expressed through SN...... relations. In determining the cumulative fatigue damage, Palmgren-Miner's rule is applied. Element reliability as well as systems reliability, is estimated using first-order reliability methods(FORM). The sensitivity of the systems reliability to various parameters is investigated. It is shown...

  6. Benefits of CO2 laser heating for high reliability fiber splicing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duke, Douglas M.; Nasir, Usman; Saravanos, Elli

    2016-03-01

    The use of a CO2 laser as a heat source became commercially available for optical fiber splicing and component fabrication only in recent years. In addition to long-term trouble-free and low-maintenance heat source operation, laser fusion splicing offers unique benefits for fabricating high-power optical components, as well as for splice reliability. When used as the heating method for fiber splicing, the energy of the CO2 laser beam is efficiently absorbed by the outer layer of the glass, and is then conducted inwards. This heating method is well controlled, and results in a smooth and contamination-free glass surface. Other heating methods, such as arc fusion or resistive heating, may leave tungsten, graphite, or metal oxide deposits on the spliced fiber surface. By contrast, with CO2 laser splicing, the lack of surface irregularities and contamination enables remarkable spliced-fiber strength results, with some strength results nearly within the range of coated fiber breaking strength.

  7. Productivity enhancement and reliability through AutoAnalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garetto, Anthony; Rademacher, Thomas; Schulz, Kristian

    2015-09-01

    The decreasing size and increasing complexity of photomask features, driven by the push to ever smaller technology nodes, places more and more challenges on the mask house, particularly in terms of yield management and cost reduction. Particularly challenging for mask shops is the inspection, repair and review cycle which requires more time and skill from operators due to the higher number of masks required per technology node and larger nuisance defect counts. While the measurement throughput of the AIMS™ platform has been improved in order to keep pace with these trends, the analysis of aerial images has seen little advancement and remains largely a manual process. This manual analysis of aerial images is time consuming, dependent on the skill level of the operator and significantly contributes to the overall mask manufacturing process flow. AutoAnalysis, the first application available for the FAVOR® platform, offers a solution to these problems by providing fully automated analysis of AIMS™ aerial images. Direct communication with the AIMS™ system allows automated data transfer and analysis parallel to the measurements. User defined report templates allow the relevant data to be output in a manner that can be tailored to various internal needs and support the requests of your customers. Productivity is significantly improved due to the fast analysis, operator time is saved and made available for other tasks and reliability is no longer a concern as the most defective region is always and consistently captured. In this paper the concept and approach of AutoAnalysis will be presented as well as an update to the status of the project. The benefits arising from the use of AutoAnalysis will be discussed in more detail and a study will be performed in order to demonstrate.

  8. DFTCalc: Reliability centered maintenance via fault tree analysis (tool paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guck, Dennis; Spel, Jip; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Butler, Michael; Conchon, Sylvain; Zaïdi, Fatiha

    2015-01-01

    Reliability, availability, maintenance and safety (RAMS) analysis is essential in the evaluation of safety critical systems like nuclear power plants and the railway infrastructure. A widely used methodology within RAMS analysis are fault trees, representing failure propagations throughout a system.

  9. Analysis of CDM projects’ potential benefits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Affonso dos Reis Junior

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective – The main goal of this study is to identify and assess, within sustainability reports, information concerning potential carbon credits obtained through projects carried out under Clean Development Mechanism (CDM assumptions, as well as to assess CDM project experts’ perceptions of obstacles to entering carbon credit markets. Design/methodology/approach – exploratory, descriptive, bibliographical and documental research, and interviews. Theoretical basis - Research was based on the concepts of sustainability, especially as to environmental responsibility (CSR; cost-benefit analysis was also considered, since selling carbon credits can be a way of mitigating the trade off between immediate shareholder satisfaction and investment in CSR. Findings – The perceptions of representatives from carbon credit projects’ certifying companies was examined by means of a series of interviews – concluding that savings in costs, business marketing and certifications are even greater motivators than carbon credits themselves. We estimated that, through energy efficiency, the projects discussed in 2011 sustainability reports would be capable of saving approximately 538 million reais in costs. In addition, 40 million reais, considering the rate of the euro and of securities on December 31, 2014, would be gained through the sale of carbon credits. Practical implications – Thus, this research helps to demonstrate the significant potential for further financial gains that companies may obtain through energy efficiency and habitat restructuring, whether by taking advantage of CO2 reduction brought about by such projects, or by developing new projects that continue to benefit economy, society and the environment.

  10. Cost-benefit considerations in regulatory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mubayi, V.; Sailor, V.; Anandalingam, G.

    1995-10-01

    Justification for safety enhancements at nuclear facilities, e.g., a compulsory backfit to nuclear power plants, requires a value-impact analysis of the increase in overall public protection versus the cost of implementation. It has been customary to assess the benefits in terms of radiation dose to the public averted by the introduction of the safety enhancement. Comparison of such benefits with the costs of the enhancement then requires an estimate of the monetary value of averted dose (dollars/person rem). This report reviews available information on a variety of factors that affect this valuation and assesses the continuing validity of the figure of $1000/person-rem averted, which has been widely used as a guideline in performing value-impact analyses. Factors that bear on this valuation include the health risks of radiation doses, especially the higher risk estimates of the BEIR V committee, recent calculations of doses and offsite costs by consequence codes for hypothesized severe accidents at U.S. nuclear power plants under the NUREG-1150 program, and recent information on the economic consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the Soviet Union and estimates of risk avoidance based on the willingness-to-pay criterion. The report analyzes these factors and presents results on the dollars/person-rem ratio arising from different assumptions on the values of these factors.

  11. Mission Benefits Analysis of Logistics Reduction Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, Michael K.; Broyan, James Lee, Jr.

    2013-01-01

    Future space exploration missions will need to use less logistical supplies if humans are to live for longer periods away from our home planet. Anything that can be done to reduce initial mass and volume of supplies or reuse or recycle items that have been launched will be very valuable. Reuse and recycling also reduce the trash burden and associated nuisances, such as smell, but require good systems engineering and operations integration to reap the greatest benefits. A systems analysis was conducted to quantify the mass and volume savings of four different technologies currently under development by NASA s Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction and Repurposing project. Advanced clothing systems lead to savings by direct mass reduction and increased wear duration. Reuse of logistical items, such as packaging, for a second purpose allows fewer items to be launched. A device known as a heat melt compactor drastically reduces the volume of trash, recovers water and produces a stable tile that can be used instead of launching additional radiation protection. The fourth technology, called trash-to-gas, can benefit a mission by supplying fuel such as methane to the propulsion system. This systems engineering work will help improve logistics planning and overall mission architectures by determining the most effective use, and reuse, of all resources.

  12. Brake System Analysis, Reliability Testing And Control Using Bench Experiments

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Z.; Yang, B.

    1997-01-01

    In this project, the authors investigated the dynamics and reliability of a brake control system using a test bench which is a Lincoln Town Car brake system. The objectives of the project are to: 1) experimentally characterize the brake system; 2) obtain good nonlinear models of the brake system; 3) perform reliability analysis of the brake control system; and, 4) develop algorithms for brake malfunction detection and brake reliability enhancement. By using the brake test bench, the dynamic c...

  13. Reliability analysis of wind embedded power generation system for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents a method for Reliability Analysis of wind energy embedded in power generation system for Indian scenario. This is done by evaluating the reliability index, loss of load expectation, for the power generation system with and without integration of wind energy sources in the overall electric power system.

  14. Reliability Analysis of Bending, Shear and Deflection Criteria of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reliability analysis of the safety levels of the criteria for bending, shear and deflection of singly reinforced, concrete slabs, have been evaluated over the practical range of thicknesses 100mm to 250mm. The First Order Reliability Method was employed in the evaluation procedure for continuous slabs of equal spans as a ...

  15. Reliability analysis applied to structural tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, P.; Payne, A. O.

    1972-01-01

    The application of reliability theory to predict, from structural fatigue test data, the risk of failure of a structure under service conditions because its load-carrying capability is progressively reduced by the extension of a fatigue crack, is considered. The procedure is applicable to both safe-life and fail-safe structures and, for a prescribed safety level, it will enable an inspection procedure to be planned or, if inspection is not feasible, it will evaluate the life to replacement. The theory has been further developed to cope with the case of structures with initial cracks, such as can occur in modern high-strength materials which are susceptible to the formation of small flaws during the production process. The method has been applied to a structure of high-strength steel and the results are compared with those obtained by the current life estimation procedures. This has shown that the conventional methods can be unconservative in certain cases, depending on the characteristics of the structure and the design operating conditions. The suitability of the probabilistic approach to the interpretation of the results from full-scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures is discussed and the assumptions involved are examined.

  16. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  17. Cost-benefit analysis of wetland restoration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dubgaard, Alex

    2004-01-01

    of environmental services. Costs typically depend on the level of ambitions regarding the magnitude and multitude of benefits. Decision makers are therefore confronted with the questions: how can generically different benefits be measured in comparable terms and how should different levels of project costs...

  18. Reliability Engineering Analysis of ATLAS Data Reprocessing Campaigns

    CERN Document Server

    Vaniachine, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Karpenko, D

    2013-01-01

    During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability...

  19. Reliability Engineering Analysis of ATLAS Data Reprocessing Campaigns

    CERN Document Server

    Vaniachine, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Karpenko, D

    2014-01-01

    During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability...

  20. Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional approaches...

  1. Multivariate analysis of factors Influencing reliability of teacher made tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Meshkani

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to the measurements literature reliability of the test refers to the consistency of the test results and shows whether the obtained score is stable indication of the student’s performance in particular test Reliability can be measured by different statistics formula.Purpose: To determine the factors influenced the reliability of 392 MCQ examinations.Methods: The correlation of reliabilities of MCQ based examination and other characteristics of tests such as length difficult items, discrimination index, mean, standard deviation and time for answering was calculated based on the data available on examination center of Tehran University of Medical Sciences. Multivariate regression has been used for data analysis.Results: overall reliability of teacher made test is at satisfactory level in most cases. The mean value of reliability was 0.71 ±0.15. In comparing previous semester with last series of examination some improvement have been found during these years (P=0.000, for first semester, P=0.002 for second, P= 0.005 for third and P=0.005 for forth semester. Keeping other variable fixed the interaction of length of exam according to item difficulty showedl significant difference on value of test reliability. Comparing difficult and easy items question with moderate difficultyindex can increase reliability 8 times more than difficult and 13 times more than easy items P=0.000.Conclusion: Our study showed that with documentation of tests’ metric features an analysis and evaluation of tests are within reach of medical school .Key words: RELIABILITY , TEACHER MADE TEST, RELIABILITY MEASUREMENTS

  2. A Passive System Reliability Analysis for a Station Blackout

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunett, Acacia; Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Sofu, Tanju; Grelle, Austin

    2015-05-03

    The latest iterations of advanced reactor designs have included increased reliance on passive safety systems to maintain plant integrity during unplanned sequences. While these systems are advantageous in reducing the reliance on human intervention and availability of power, the phenomenological foundations on which these systems are built require a novel approach to a reliability assessment. Passive systems possess the unique ability to fail functionally without failing physically, a result of their explicit dependency on existing boundary conditions that drive their operating mode and capacity. Argonne National Laboratory is performing ongoing analyses that demonstrate various methodologies for the characterization of passive system reliability within a probabilistic framework. Two reliability analysis techniques are utilized in this work. The first approach, the Reliability Method for Passive Systems, provides a mechanistic technique employing deterministic models and conventional static event trees. The second approach, a simulation-based technique, utilizes discrete dynamic event trees to treat time- dependent phenomena during scenario evolution. For this demonstration analysis, both reliability assessment techniques are used to analyze an extended station blackout in a pool-type sodium fast reactor (SFR) coupled with a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). This work demonstrates the entire process of a passive system reliability analysis, including identification of important parameters and failure metrics, treatment of uncertainties and analysis of results.

  3. Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Fracture of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berzonskis, Arvydas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2016-01-01

    in the volume of the casted ductile iron main shaft, on the reliability of the component. The probabilistic reliability analysis conducted is based on fracture mechanics models. Additionally, the utilization of the probabilistic reliability for operation and maintenance planning and quality control is discussed.......One of the main challenges for the wind turbine industry currently, is to reduce the cost of levelized energy, especially for offshore wind. Failures in the wind turbine drivetrain generally result in the second largest down times of the wind turbine, hence significantly increasing the cost...

  4. Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Ronald; Thöns, Sebastian; Straub, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through B...... is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses. The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue....

  5. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Employee Training: A Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomberg, Robert

    1989-01-01

    The author reviews current literature related to cost-benefit analysis of employee training programs. After the necessary concepts are defined, methodologies for measuring costs and benefits, and problems related to this process are discussed. Concluding comments focus on the need for practical applications of cost-benefit research. (Author/CH)

  6. Test-retest reliability of trunk accelerometric gait analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Marius; Lund, Hans; Moe-Nilssen, R

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the test-retest reliability of a trunk accelerometric gait analysis in healthy subjects. Accelerations were measured during walking using a triaxial accelerometer mounted on the lumbar spine of the subjects. Six men and 14 women (mean age 35.2; range 18...... a definite potential in clinical gait analysis....

  7. Reliability analysis of flood defence systems in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lassing, B.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Waarts, P.H.

    2003-01-01

    In recent years an advanced program for reliability analysis of dike systems has been under de-velopment in the Netherlands. This paper describes the global data requirements for application and the set-up of the models in the Netherlands. The analysis generates an estimate of the probability of

  8. Reliability of the Emergency Severity Index: Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirhaghi, Amir; Heydari, Abbas; Mazlom, Reza; Hasanzadeh, Farzaneh

    2015-02-01

    Although triage systems based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) have many advantages in terms of simplicity and clarity, previous research has questioned their reliability in practice. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the reliability of ESI triage scales. This meta-analysis was performed in March 2014. Electronic research databases were searched and articles conforming to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies were selected. Two researchers independently examined selected abstracts. Data were extracted in the following categories: version of scale (latest/older), participants (adult/paediatric), raters (nurse, physician or expert), method of reliability (intra/inter-rater), reliability statistics (weighted/unweighted kappa) and the origin and publication year of the study. The effect size was obtained by the Z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models and a meta-regression was performed based on the method of moments estimator. A total of 19 studies from six countries were included in the analysis. The pooled coefficient for the ESI triage scales was substantial at 0.791 (95% confidence interval: 0.787-0.795). Agreement was higher with the latest and adult versions of the scale and among expert raters, compared to agreement with older and paediatric versions of the scales and with other groups of raters, respectively. ESI triage scales showed an acceptable level of overall reliability. However, ESI scales require more development in order to see full agreement from all rater groups. Further studies concentrating on other aspects of reliability assessment are needed.

  9. The development of a reliable amateur boxing performance analysis template.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Edward; Lamb, Kevin; Nicholas, Ceri

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to devise a valid performance analysis system for the assessment of the movement characteristics associated with competitive amateur boxing and assess its reliability using analysts of varying experience of the sport and performance analysis. Key performance indicators to characterise the demands of an amateur contest (offensive, defensive and feinting) were developed and notated using a computerised notational analysis system. Data were subjected to intra- and inter-observer reliability assessment using median sign tests and calculating the proportion of agreement within predetermined limits of error. For all performance indicators, intra-observer reliability revealed non-significant differences between observations (P > 0.05) and high agreement was established (80-100%) regardless of whether exact or the reference value of ±1 was applied. Inter-observer reliability was less impressive for both analysts (amateur boxer and experienced analyst), with the proportion of agreement ranging from 33-100%. Nonetheless, there was no systematic bias between observations for any indicator (P > 0.05), and the proportion of agreement within the reference range (±1) was 100%. A reliable performance analysis template has been developed for the assessment of amateur boxing performance and is available for use by researchers, coaches and athletes to classify and quantify the movement characteristics of amateur boxing.

  10. Structural Reliability Analysis Using Orthogonalizable Power Polynomial Basis Vector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yejun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method for structural reliability analysis using orthogonalizable power polynomial basis vector is presented. Firstly, a power polynomial basis vector is adopted to express the initial series solution of structural response, which is determined by a series of deterministic recursive equation based on perturbation technique, and then transferred to be a set of orthogonalizable power polynomial basis vector using the orthogonalization technique. By conducting Garlekin projection, an accelerating factor vector of the orthogonalizable power polynomial expansion is determined by solving small scale algebraic equations. Numerical results of a continuous bridge structure on reliability analysis shows that the proposed method can achieve the accuracy of the Direct Monte Carlo method and can save a lot of computation time at the same time, it is both accurate and efficient, and is very competitive to be used in structural reliability analysis.

  11. Reliability Analysis of Wireless Sensor Networks Using Markovian Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Zhu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates reliability analysis of wireless sensor networks whose topology is switching among possible connections which are governed by a Markovian chain. We give the quantized relations between network topology, data acquisition rate, nodes' calculation ability, and network reliability. By applying Lyapunov method, sufficient conditions of network reliability are proposed for such topology switching networks with constant or varying data acquisition rate. With the conditions satisfied, the quantity of data transported over wireless network node will not exceed node capacity such that reliability is ensured. Our theoretical work helps to provide a deeper understanding of real-world wireless sensor networks, which may find its application in the fields of network design and topology control.

  12. Reliability-Based Robustness Analysis for a Croatian Sports Hall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a probabilistic approach for structural robustness assessment for a timber structure built a few years ago. The robustness analysis is based on a structural reliability based framework for robustness and a simplified mechanical system modelling of a timber truss system....... A complex timber structure with a large number of failure modes is modelled with only a few dominant failure modes. First, a component based robustness analysis is performed based on the reliability indices of the remaining elements after the removal of selected critical elements. The robustness...

  13. Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

    2013-01-01

    Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

  14. CONSOLIDATION RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF STONE COLUMN REINFORCED GROUND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. S. NG

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Stone column is an effective ground improvement method to improve the weak ground. This paper describes the implementation of reliability based analysis on the consolidation behaviour of stone column reinforced ground. Hasofer-Lind reliability index is computed involving non-correlated normal random variables which include stone column diameter, coefficient of volume compressibility, coefficient of consolidation and stress concentration ratio. The sensitivity of these variables on the effect of consolidation settlement is investigated in this study. Results show the importance of considering spatial variability in design and analysis of stone column reinforced ground. The probabilities of failure inferred from reliability indices are compared with Monte Carlo simulation where good agreements are obtained.

  15. Reliability and validity of the Exercise Benefits/Barriers scale in the elderly Confiabilidad y validez de la Exercise Benefits/Barriers Scale en ancianos Confiabilidade e validade da Exercise Benefits/Barriers scale em idosos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janaína Fonseca Victor

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Assess the reliability and validity of the Exercise Benefits/Barriers Scale (EBBS in the elderly. METHODS: The reliability was assessed by internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha and by the test-retest Kendall's W. To verify the construct validity it was used a correlation between the EBBS results and the personal and clinic variables. RESULTS: The Cronbach's alfa of the EBBS was 0.94. The test-retest value was 0.60. The variables that presented association with the EBBS were: level of education (p = 0.02, practice of physical activity (p = 0.0001, with whom one resides (p= 0.032 and lifestyle (p= 0.0001. CONCLUSION: The statistical analysis revealed that the translated version of the EBBS is valid and reliable however, its use is recommended in different scenarios due to regional differences in Brazil, in order to have the validity of the instrument widely exploited.OBJETIVO: Evaluar la confiabilidad y validez de la Exercise Benefits/Barriers Scale (EBBS en ancianos. MÉTODOS: La confiabilidad fue evaluada por medio de la consistencia interna (alfa de Cronbach y por el test-retest w de kendall, para la verificación de la validez de constructo se utilizó la correlación entre los resultados de la EBBS y las variables personales y clínicas. RESULTADOS: El Alfa de Cronbach de la EBBS fue de 0,94. El valor del test-retest fue de 0,60. Las variables que presentaron asociación con la EBBS fueron: escolaridad (p = 0,02, práctica de actividad física (p = 0.0001, con quien reside (p= 0,032 y estilo de vida (p= 0,0001. CONCLUSIÓN: El análisis estadístico reveló que la versión traducida de la EBBS es confiable y válida, recomendándose su utilización en otros escenarios, debido a las diferencias regionales del Brasil, para que la validez del instrumento sea ampliamente explotada.OBJETIVO: Avaliar a confiabilidade e validade da Exercise Benefits/Barriers Scale (EBBS em idosos. MÉTODOS: A confiabilidade foi avaliada por meio da

  16. Sealing versus Nonsealing: Cost-benefit analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anshula N Deshpande

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dental caries still remains the second most prevalent disease after common cold, out of which occlusal caries is the most profound one. In India, more than 40% of children are found to be affected by dental caries. Occlusal surfaces of the teeth are most susceptible sites for caries development due to their morphology. They are least benefited from fluoride application. Various efforts have been made by the preventive means to decline the rate of caries, one of which being sealant application. Sealants have come into existence long back since 1971 when first pit and fissure sealant Nuva-Caulk came into existence. There have been piles of literature stating the benefits that arrive from sealing the teeth. However, one crucial point that is being missed most of the times is the cost-effectiveness of the sealant. There are various schools of thoughts, regarding this that is controversial ones. Some of the analysts believe that always sealing may be a bit costlier, but it reduces subsequent dental treatments and hence saves money as well as time. However, some believe that why to unnecessarily seal the teeth in all cases even when the child is not at a risk to develop caries. Hence, we need to foresee both the sides of equation. For best clinical practice and decision-making, we need to have a balance of best evidence, clinical judgment, and the most important, patient needs and preferences.

  17. Cost Benefit Analysis of Consumer Product Safety Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Betty F.; Dardis, Rachel

    1977-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of cost-benefit analysis in evaluating consumer product safety standards and applys such analysis to an evaluation of flammability standards for children's sleepwear. (Editor)

  18. Failures Analysis and Reliability Calculation for Power Transformers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mirzai

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Failures of transformers in sub-transmission systems not only reduce reliability of power system but also have significant effects on power quality since one of the important components of any system quality is reliability of that system. To enhance utility reliability, failure analysis and its rates, failure origin and physical damage causes must be studied. This paper describes a case study of the reliability of sub-transmission transformers (63/20 KV installed in Mazandaran province, operated in sub-transmission system. The information obtained from Meandering Regional Electric Company. The results of study and analysis on 60 substation including more than 110 transformers installed in sub-transmission system show that the failure modes of transformers can be represented by Weibull distribution. Weibull statistics have been widely used and accepted as a successful mathematical method to predict the remaining life time of any equipment. Useful conclusions are presented both for power systems operators and manufactures for improving the reliability of transformers.

  19. Sensitivity based reduced approaches for structural reliability analysis

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    captured by a safety-factor based approach due to the intricate nonlinear relationships between the system parameters and the natural frequencies. For these reasons a scientific and systematic approach is required to predict the probability of failure of a structure at the design stage. Probabilistic structural reliability analysis ...

  20. Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

  1. System Reliability Analysis Capability and Surrogate Model Application in RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Huang, Dongli [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gleicher, Frederick [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Wang, Bei [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Adbel-Khalik, Hany S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-11-01

    This report collect the effort performed to improve the reliability analysis capabilities of the RAVEN code and explore new opportunity in the usage of surrogate model by extending the current RAVEN capabilities to multi physics surrogate models and construction of surrogate models for high dimensionality fields.

  2. Using integrated reliability analysis to optimise maintenance strategies:a Bayesian integrated reliability analysis of locomotive wheels

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Jing

    2013-01-01

    The goal of the research presented in this report is to propose, develop and test an integrated reliability analysis to optimise the maintenance strategies of the railway industry. This integrated analysis applies traditional statistics theories as well as Bayesian statistics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodologies. Using the Bayesian inference leads to greater flexibility because such analysis can simultaneously accommodate the following: • Small sample data;• Incomplete data set...

  3. Human Reliability Analysis for Digital Human-Machine Interfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    This paper addresses the fact that existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods do not provide guidance on digital human-machine interfaces (HMIs). Digital HMIs are becoming ubiquitous in nuclear power operations, whether through control room modernization or new-build control rooms. Legacy analog technologies like instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are costly to support, and vendors no longer develop or support analog technology, which is considered technologically obsolete. Yet, despite the inevitability of digital HMI, no current HRA method provides guidance on how to treat human reliability considerations for digital technologies.

  4. Costs and benefits of railway urban logistics: a prospective social cost benefit analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a general framework to assess urban rail logistics suitability via a socio-economic cost benefit analysis. Firstly, we propose an overview on the basic notions of CBA and SCBA. Secondly, we identify and present the main types of costs and benefits or railway urban logistics services and the related final delivery services using low emission road vehicles to serve customers where the rail systems cannot. Thirdly, as an example of application, we propose to assess a scenario...

  5. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swain, A.D.

    1987-02-01

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs.

  6. The drawing effect: Evidence for reliable and robust memory benefits in free recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wammes, Jeffrey D; Meade, Melissa E; Fernandes, Myra A

    2016-01-01

    In 7 free-recall experiments, the benefit of creating drawings of to-be-remembered information relative to writing was examined as a mnemonic strategy. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants were presented with a list of words and were asked to either draw or write out each. Drawn words were better recalled than written. Experiments 3-5 showed that the memory boost provided by drawing could not be explained by elaborative encoding (deep level of processing, LoP), visual imagery, or picture superiority, respectively. In Experiment 6, we explored potential limitations of the drawing effect, by reducing encoding time and increasing list length. Drawing, relative to writing, still benefited memory despite these constraints. In Experiment 7, the drawing effect was significant even when encoding trial types were compared in pure lists between participants, inconsistent with a distinctiveness account. Together these experiments indicate that drawing enhances memory relative to writing, across settings, instructions, and alternate encoding strategies, both within- and between-participants, and that a deep LoP, visual imagery, or picture superiority, alone or collectively, are not sufficient to explain the observed effect. We propose that drawing improves memory by encouraging a seamless integration of semantic, visual, and motor aspects of a memory trace.

  7. Estimating the effectiveness of ergonomics interventions through case studies: implications for predictive cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goggins, Richard W; Spielholz, Peregrin; Nothstein, Greg L

    2008-01-01

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) can help to justify an investment in ergonomics interventions. A predictive CBA model would allow practitioners to present a cost justification to management during the planning stages, but such a model requires reliable estimates of the benefits of ergonomics interventions. Through literature reviews and Internet searches, 250 case studies that reported the benefits of ergonomics programs and control measures were collected and summarized. Commonly reported benefits included reductions in the number of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) or their incidence rate, as well as related lost workdays, restricted workdays, and workers' compensation costs. Additional benefits reported were related to productivity, quality, turnover and absenteeism. Benefits reported were largely positive, and payback periods for ergonomics interventions were typically less than one year. The results of this review could be used to develop predictive CBA models for ergonomics programs and individual control measures. Cost-justifying ergonomics interventions prior to implementation may help to secure management support for proposed changes. Numbers used for the benefits side of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) need to be based on "real world" data in order to be credible. The data presented in this paper may help in the development of simple cost-benefit models for ergonomics programs and control measures.

  8. Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Fracture of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berzonskis, Arvydas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2016-01-01

    in the volume of the casted ductile iron main shaft, on the reliability of the component. The probabilistic reliability analysis conducted is based on fracture mechanics models. Additionally, the utilization of the probabilistic reliability for operation and maintenance planning and quality control is discussed....... of operation and maintenance. The manufacturing of casted drivetrain components, like the main shaft of the wind turbine, commonly result in many smaller defects through the volume of the component with sizes that depend on the manufacturing method. This paper considers the effect of the initial defect present......One of the main challenges for the wind turbine industry currently, is to reduce the cost of levelized energy, especially for offshore wind. Failures in the wind turbine drivetrain generally result in the second largest down times of the wind turbine, hence significantly increasing the cost...

  9. Reliability Analysis of Free Jet Scour Below Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanqi Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Current formulas for calculating scour depth below of a free over fall are mostly deterministic in nature and do not adequately consider the uncertainties of various scouring parameters. A reliability-based assessment of scour, taking into account uncertainties of parameters and coefficients involved, should be performed. This paper studies the reliability of a dam foundation under the threat of scour. A model for calculating the reliability of scour and estimating the probability of failure of the dam foundation subjected to scour is presented. The Maximum Entropy Method is applied to construct the probability density function (PDF of the performance function subject to the moment constraints. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS is applied for uncertainty analysis. An example is considered, and there liability of its scour is computed, the influence of various random variables on the probability failure is analyzed.

  10. Reliability analysis of two unit parallel repairable industrial system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohit Kumar Kakkar

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to present a reliability and profit analysis of a two-dissimilar parallel unit system under the assumption that operative unit cannot fail after post repair inspection and replacement and there is only one repair facility. Failure and repair times of each unit are assumed to be uncorrelated. Using regenerative point technique various reliability characteristics are obtained which are useful to system designers and industrial managers. Graphical behaviors of mean time to system failure (MTSF and profit function have also been studied. In this paper, some important measures of reliability characteristics of a two non-identical unit standby system model with repair, inspection and post repair are obtained using regenerative point technique.

  11. Analysis of the Reliability of the "Alternator- Alternator Belt" System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Mavrin

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Before starting and also during the exploitation of va1ioussystems, it is vety imp011ant to know how the system and itsparts will behave during operation regarding breakdowns, i.e.failures. It is possible to predict the service behaviour of a systemby determining the functions of reliability, as well as frequencyand intensity of failures.The paper considers the theoretical basics of the functionsof reliability, frequency and intensity of failures for the twomain approaches. One includes 6 equal intetvals and the other13 unequal intetvals for the concrete case taken from practice.The reliability of the "alternator- alternator belt" system installedin the buses, has been analysed, according to the empiricaldata on failures.The empitical data on failures provide empirical functionsof reliability and frequency and intensity of failures, that arepresented in tables and graphically. The first analysis perfO!med by dividing the mean time between failures into 6 equaltime intervals has given the forms of empirical functions of fa ilurefrequency and intensity that approximately cotTespond totypical functions. By dividing the failure phase into 13 unequalintetvals with two failures in each interval, these functions indicateexplicit transitions from early failure inte1val into the randomfailure interval, i.e. into the ageing intetval. Functions thusobtained are more accurate and represent a better solution forthe given case.In order to estimate reliability of these systems with greateraccuracy, a greater number of failures needs to be analysed.

  12. Nurse manager succession planning: A cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Tracy; Evans, Jennifer L; Tooley, Stephanie; Shirey, Maria R

    2017-12-12

    This commentary presents a cost-benefit analysis to advocate for the use of succession planning to mitigate the problems ensuing from nurse manager turnover. An estimated 75% of nurse managers will leave the workforce by 2020. Many benefits are associated with proactively identifying and developing internal candidates. Fewer than 7% of health care organisations have implemented formal leadership succession planning programmes. A cost-benefit analysis of a formal succession-planning programme from one hospital illustrates the benefits of the programme in their organisation and can be replicated easily. Assumptions of nursing manager succession planning cost-benefit analysis are identified and discussed. The succession planning exemplar demonstrates the integration of cost-benefit analysis principles. Comparing the costs of a formal nurse manager succession planning strategy with the status quo results in a positive cost-benefit ratio. The implementation of a formal nurse manager succession planning programme effectively reduces replacement costs and time to transition into the new role. This programme provides an internal pipeline of future leaders who will be more successful than external candidates. Using an actual cost-benefit analysis equips nurse managers with valuable evidence depicting succession planning as a viable business strategy. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Semantic Web for Reliable Citation Analysis in Scholarly Publishing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruben Tous

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of the impact of scholarly artifacts is constrained by current unreliable practices in cross-referencing, citation discovering, and citation indexing and analysis, which have not kept pace with the technological advances that are occurring in several areas like knowledge management and security. Because citation analysis has become the primary component in scholarly impact factor calculation, and considering the relevance of this metric within both the scholarly publishing value chain and (especially important the professional curriculum evaluation of scholarly professionals, we defend that current practices need to be revised. This paper describes a reference architecture that aims to provide openness and reliability to the citation-tracking lifecycle. The solution relies on the use of digitally signed semantic metadata in the different stages of the scholarly publishing workflow in such a manner that authors, publishers, repositories, and citation-analysis systems will have access to independent reliable evidences that are resistant to forgery, impersonation, and repudiation. As far as we know, this is the first paper to combine Semantic Web technologies and public-key cryptography to achieve reliable citation analysis in scholarly publishing

  14. Translational Behavior Analysis and Practical Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilgrim, Carol

    2011-01-01

    In his article, Critchfield ("Translational Contributions of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior," "The Behavior Analyst," v34, p3-17, 2011) summarizes a previous call (Mace & Critchfield, 2010) for basic scientists to reexamine the inspiration for their research and turn increasingly to translational approaches. Interestingly, rather than…

  15. Reliability analysis of a robotic system using hybridized technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Naveen; Komal; Lather, J. S.

    2017-09-01

    In this manuscript, the reliability of a robotic system has been analyzed using the available data (containing vagueness, uncertainty, etc). Quantification of involved uncertainties is done through data fuzzification using triangular fuzzy numbers with known spreads as suggested by system experts. With fuzzified data, if the existing fuzzy lambda-tau (FLT) technique is employed, then the computed reliability parameters have wide range of predictions. Therefore, decision-maker cannot suggest any specific and influential managerial strategy to prevent unexpected failures and consequently to improve complex system performance. To overcome this problem, the present study utilizes a hybridized technique. With this technique, fuzzy set theory is utilized to quantify uncertainties, fault tree is utilized for the system modeling, lambda-tau method is utilized to formulate mathematical expressions for failure/repair rates of the system, and genetic algorithm is utilized to solve established nonlinear programming problem. Different reliability parameters of a robotic system are computed and the results are compared with the existing technique. The components of the robotic system follow exponential distribution, i.e., constant. Sensitivity analysis is also performed and impact on system mean time between failures (MTBF) is addressed by varying other reliability parameters. Based on analysis some influential suggestions are given to improve the system performance.

  16. Reliability and cost-benefits of adding alternate power sources to an independent micro-grid community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanrioven, M.

    Interest in alternative energy resources such as wind, solar energy and fuel cell (FC) has been on the increase due to improved public awareness of the high energy cost and adverse environmental impacts of conventional energy sources. Therefore, the rapid growth and potential future demand for these energy sources suggest a need to consider both reliability and cost-benefits of the supply for each case. This paper presents a simulation methodology for reliability and cost assessment of these energy sources in an independent micro-grid (IMG) system, which is a distribution system with distributed energy sources such as micro-turbine, photovoltaic and fuel cells. A systematic technique and a computer program for reliability and cost assessment of the IMG system containing FC, photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy (WE) have been developed. The adequacy of the IMG is evaluated in three steps: (i) atmospheric data is generated for PV and WE in addition to the development of a 50 kW PEM FC generation and energy conversion model, (ii) the power delivered by these energy sources is calculated, and (iii) system adequacy and energy indices are calculated based on the system load balance equation, which is the combination of generated power and system load demand. The suggested technique can then be used to help system planners to provide objective indicators for suitable installation locations, operating policies, and energy type and size selection for IMG system containing alternative energy sources.

  17. Consortium Purchases: Case Study for a Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scigliano, Marisa

    2002-01-01

    Discusses library cooperation and academic library consortia and presents a case study of a Canadian consortia that conducted a cost-benefit analysis for purchasing an electronic resource. Reports on member library subscription costs, external economic factors, value of patron time saved, costs and benefits for patrons, and net savings. (LRW)

  18. Analysis and future trends for the Belgian electrical supply reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vallee, F.; Lobry, J.; Deblecker, O. [Faculte Polytechnique de Mons, Mons (Belgium)

    2007-07-01

    An analysis of the future trends in the reliability of the electricity supply in Belgium was presented. In an effort to meet the Kyoto obligations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the Belgian government is promoting the use of renewable energy in its electricity supply mix. Among its policies, the government plans to end its nuclear program by 2030 and develop natural gas based thermal plants. It is expected that 6 per cent of the electrical production in Belgium will come from wind. However, that energy source is highly variable and the risk of having fluctuating active power at the output of a wind generator could threaten the reliability of the electrical supply. For that reason, this study applied a reliability index to a modified Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). This study also demonstrated the absolute need in nuclear alternatives and classical supply, such as natural gas based thermal plants, to maintain the reliability of the electricity supply in Belgium. In addition to these changes in the electricity supply mix, projections have indicated an increase in electricity consumption. The main purpose of this study was to point out the impacts of those expected modifications on the reliability indexes of the Belgian electrical network. The proposed results were obtained by MATLAB simulations performed at the RBTS network which was modified to meet Belgian production plans. It was estimated that even with a 1 GW wind potential planned for 2015, an additional 4.5 GW capacity is needed in cogeneration and combined cycle gas units in order to maintain reliability in power supply. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 11 figs.

  19. Thermus thermophilus genome analysis: benefits and implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lioliou Efthimia E

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The genome sequence analysis of Thermus thermophilus HB27, a microorganism with high biotechnological potential, has recently been published. In that report, the chromosomal and the megaplasmid sequence were compared to those of other organisms and discussed on the basis of their physiological and metabolic features. Out of the 2,218 putative genes identified through the large genome sequencing project, a significant number has potential interest for biotechnology. The present communication will discuss the accumulating information on molecules participating in fundamental biological processes or having potential biotechnological importance.

  20. 48 CFR 3046.792 - Cost benefit analysis (USCG).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ..., HOMELAND SECURITY ACQUISITION REGULATION (HSAR) CONTRACT MANAGEMENT QUALITY ASSURANCE Warranties 3046.792 Cost benefit analysis (USCG). If a specific warranty is considered not to be cost beneficial by the...

  1. Cost-benefit analysis and health care evaluations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brent, Robert J

    2003-01-01

    ... Cataloguing in Publication Data Brent, Robert J., 1946- Cost-benefit analysis and health care evaluations / Robert J. Brent. p. cm. Includes index. 1. Medical care - Cost effectiveness - Researc...

  2. Structural Reliability Analysis Using Orthogonalizable Power Polynomial Basis Vector

    OpenAIRE

    Li Yejun; Huang Bin

    2017-01-01

    A new method for structural reliability analysis using orthogonalizable power polynomial basis vector is presented. Firstly, a power polynomial basis vector is adopted to express the initial series solution of structural response, which is determined by a series of deterministic recursive equation based on perturbation technique, and then transferred to be a set of orthogonalizable power polynomial basis vector using the orthogonalization technique. By conducting Garlekin projection, an accel...

  3. Reliability of four models for clinical gait analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kainz, Hans; Graham, David; Edwards, Julie; Walsh, Henry P J; Maine, Sheanna; Boyd, Roslyn N; Lloyd, David G; Modenese, Luca; Carty, Christopher P

    2017-05-01

    Three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA) has become a common clinical tool for treatment planning in children with cerebral palsy (CP). Many clinical gait laboratories use the conventional gait analysis model (e.g. Plug-in-Gait model), which uses Direct Kinematics (DK) for joint kinematic calculations, whereas, musculoskeletal models, mainly used for research, use Inverse Kinematics (IK). Musculoskeletal IK models have the advantage of enabling additional analyses which might improve the clinical decision-making in children with CP. Before any new model can be used in a clinical setting, its reliability has to be evaluated and compared to a commonly used clinical gait model (e.g. Plug-in-Gait model) which was the purpose of this study. Two testers performed 3DGA in eleven CP and seven typically developing participants on two occasions. Intra- and inter-tester standard deviations (SD) and standard error of measurement (SEM) were used to compare the reliability of two DK models (Plug-in-Gait and a six degrees-of-freedom model solved using Vicon software) and two IK models (two modifications of 'gait2392' solved using OpenSim). All models showed good reliability (mean SEM of 3.0° over all analysed models and joint angles). Variations in joint kinetics were less in typically developed than in CP participants. The modified 'gait2392' model which included all the joint rotations commonly reported in clinical 3DGA, showed reasonable reliable joint kinematic and kinetic estimates, and allows additional musculoskeletal analysis on surgically adjustable parameters, e.g. muscle-tendon lengths, and, therefore, is a suitable model for clinical gait analysis. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Reliability Analysis of Car Maintenance Forecast and Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Owhor, Sampson Chisa; Abdul Alim Ibrahim Gambo; Ojo, Victor Kayode; Dan’azumi Daniel

    2015-01-01

    In reliability analysis of car maintenance forecast and performance, researchers have mostly dealt with problems either without maintenance or with deterministic maintenance when no failure can occur. This can be unrealistic in practical settings. In this work, a statistical model is developed to evaluate the effect of predictive and preventive maintenance schemes on car performance in the presence of system failure where the forecasting objective is to minimize schedule duration. It was s...

  5. Solid Rocket Booster Large Main and Drogue Parachute Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, Courtenay B.; Hengel, John E.

    2009-01-01

    The parachutes on the Space Transportation System (STS) Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) are the means for decelerating the SRB and allowing it to impact the water at a nominal vertical velocity of 75 feet per second. Each SRB has one pilot, one drogue, and three main parachutes. About four minutes after SRB separation, the SRB nose cap is jettisoned, deploying the pilot parachute. The pilot chute then deploys the drogue parachute. The drogue chute provides initial deceleration and proper SRB orientation prior to frustum separation. At frustum separation, the drogue pulls the frustum from the SRB and allows the main parachutes that are mounted in the frustum to unpack and inflate. These chutes are retrieved, inspected, cleaned, repaired as needed, and returned to the flight inventory and reused. Over the course of the Shuttle Program, several improvements have been introduced to the SRB main parachutes. A major change was the replacement of the small (115 ft. diameter) main parachutes with the larger (136 ft. diameter) main parachutes. Other modifications were made to the main parachutes, main parachute support structure, and SRB frustum to eliminate failure mechanisms, improve damage tolerance, and improve deployment and inflation characteristics. This reliability analysis is limited to the examination of the SRB Large Main Parachute (LMP) and drogue parachute failure history to assess the reliability of these chutes. From the inventory analysis, 68 Large Main Parachutes were used in 651 deployments, and 7 chute failures occurred in the 651 deployments. Logistic regression was used to analyze the LMP failure history, and it showed that reliability growth has occurred over the period of use resulting in a current chute reliability of R = .9983. This result was then used to determine the reliability of the 3 LMPs on the SRB, when all must function. There are 29 drogue parachutes that were used in 244 deployments, and no in-flight failures have occurred. Since there are no

  6. Cost benefit analysis of the California HVS program

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Du Plessis, L

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available ); • Compile a set of assumptions required for a benefit/cost analysis including analysis period, initial construction costs, routine maintenance costs, rehabilitation timing and costs, discount rate etc.; • Conduct initial benefit/cost analyses based... Pf Ca Cb Cc Concrete Base Pavement Notation: Pi = Probability that option I would be implemented Ci = Discounted life cycle cost for each alternative Asphalt Base Pavement G1 Base Pavement Effective cost for each alternative = (P i ) x (C i...

  7. An Analysis of the Benefits of Sports for College Students

    OpenAIRE

    洲, 雅明; 清水, 富弘; 田井村, 明博; Masaaki, Suga; Tomihiro, SHIMIZU; Akihiro, TAIMURA

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this research paper is to analyze the need for sports for college students. By using Takekuma's test(1991), the questionnaire was given to adults all over Oita city. The benefits of sports were analyzed by factor analysis and comparisons were made between 1) college students and other adults, and 2) male and female students. The results obtained are summarized as follows: 1) As a result of factor analysis, the benefits of sports were divided into 9 factors: "accessibility", "in...

  8. Reliability analysis of pipelines with corrosion defects using surrogate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torres, Juliana V.S. [Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil); Afonso, Silvana M. Bastos [Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Vaz, Luiz Eloy [Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Dept. of Applied Mechanics and Structures

    2009-07-01

    The most adequate procedure for measuring the structural safety is through the quantification of its failure probability. The determination of this value can be made using the first order reliability method (FORM) that leads to an optimization problem to solve the structural reliability problem. Other alternative is to apply Monte Carlo simulation method. The present work has the aim to present a methodology for safety verification and optimum design of pipelines with defect caused by corrosion. The methods used here to verify the safety of pipelines with corrosion defects use information from the deterministic analysis in its calculations. The choice of the deterministic method directly affects the calculation of failure probability of the structure. To obtain the failure pressure load, the FEM is applied considering both physical and geometric nonlinearities. This is a costly simulation problem even for a single simulation. When, in a reliability analysis procedure using the FEM, many random variables and gradient evaluations are applied, the issued related to computational time becomes very critical, and could be even prohibitively, depending on the case of study. Surrogate models are here used to overcome the above mentioned problem. (author)

  9. Design Parameters Influencing Reliability of CCGA Assembly: A Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasooji, Amaneh; Ghaffarian, Reza; Rinaldi, Antonio

    2006-01-01

    Area Array microelectronic packages with small pitch and large I/O counts are now widely used in microelectronics packaging. The impact of various package design and materials/process parameters on reliability has been studied through extensive literature review. Reliability of Ceramic Column Grid Array (CCGA) package assemblies has been evaluated using JPL thermal cycle test results (-50(deg)/75(deg)C, -55(deg)/100(deg)C, and -55(deg)/125(deg)C), as well as those reported by other investigators. A sensitivity analysis has been performed using the literature da to study the impact of design parameters and global/local stress conditions on assembly reliability. The applicability of various life-prediction models for CCGA design has been investigated by comparing model's predictions with the experimental thermal cycling data. Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis has been conducted to assess the state of the stress/strain in CCGA assembly under different thermal cycling, and to explain the different failure modes and locations observed in JPL test assemblies.

  10. Mutation Analysis Approach to Develop Reliable Object-Oriented Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monalisa Sarma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In general, modern programs are large and complex and it is essential that they should be highly reliable in applications. In order to develop highly reliable software, Java programming language developer provides a rich set of exceptions and exception handling mechanisms. Exception handling mechanisms are intended to help developers build robust programs. Given a program with exception handling constructs, for an effective testing, we are to detect whether all possible exceptions are raised and caught or not. However, complex exception handling constructs make it tedious to trace which exceptions are handled and where and which exceptions are passed on. In this paper, we address this problem and propose a mutation analysis approach to develop reliable object-oriented programs. We have applied a number of mutation operators to create a large set of mutant programs with different type of faults. We then generate test cases and test data to uncover exception related faults. The test suite so obtained is applied to the mutant programs measuring the mutation score and hence verifying whether mutant programs are effective or not. We have tested our approach with a number of case studies to substantiate the efficacy of the proposed mutation analysis technique.

  11. Reliability analysis of shallow tunnels using the response surface methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Hamrouni

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic study of a circular tunnel excavated in a soil mass using the response surface methodology (RSM is presented. A deterministic model based on two-dimensional numerical simulations in a transversal section is used, and the serviceability limit state (SLS is considered in the analysis. The model permits the surface settlement curve and the bending moment on the tunnel lining to be obtained. Only the soil parameters are considered as random variables. The first-order reliability method (FORM and the response surface methodology (RSM are utilized for the assessment of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index (βHL optimized by the use of a genetic algorithm (GA. Two assumptions (normal and non-normal distribution were used for the random variables. The comparison analysis considering a correlation between the friction angle and the cohesion indicates that the results are conservative if a negative correlation among strength parameters is not taken into account. The assumption of a non-normal distribution for the random variables has an important effect on the reliability index for the practical range of values of surface settlements.

  12. To transfer or not to transfer? Evidence from validity and reliability tests for international transfers of non-market adaptation benefits in river basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    The attempt to design cost-effective adaptation policies incorporating non-market values to inhibit climate change impacts on water resources may increase the interest in applying the Benefit Transfer method. Benefit Transfer is a practical way to consider non-market values using functions and estimates acquired through primary valuation methods from other sites. Among the primary methods, Choice Experiments appear to particularly accommodate Benefit Transfer. Nevertheless, validity and reliability of international value transfers obtained from Choice Experiments have not been adequately examined. To this end, two identical Choice Experiments were conducted in Greece and Italy in the context of river services adaptation, testing validity and reliability of Benefit Transfer. The application of validity and reliability tests for different types of transfers is supportive for the use of Benefit Transfer, at least for the value transfer types. In particular the reliability of value transfer was higher when income adjustments were taken into account. Overall, Benefit Transfer can be attentively considered to evaluate cost-effective adaptation policies across countries experiencing similar climate change trends. The latter gains more importance given that an international Benefit Transfer setting as regards the non-market benefits of adaptation to climate change for river services is absent in the relevant literature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lois, Erasmia (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission); Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt; Boring, Ronald L. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID)

    2008-04-01

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  14. Analytical reliability analysis of soil-water characteristic curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johari A.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Water Characteristic Curve (SWCC, also known as the soil water-retention curve, is an important part of any constitutive relationship for unsaturated soils. Deterministic assessment of SWCC has received considerable attention in the past few years. However the uncertainties of the parameters which affect SWCC dictate that the problem is of a probabilistic nature rather than being deterministic. In this research, a Gene Expression Programming (GEP-based SWCC model is employed to assess the reliability of SWCC. For this purpose, the Jointly Distributed Random Variables (JDRV method is used as an analytical method for reliability analysis. All input parameters of the model which are initial void ratio, initial water content, silt and clay contents are set to be stochastic and modelled using truncated normal probability density functions. The results are compared with those of the Monte Carlo (MC simulation. It is shown that the initial water content is the most effective parameter in SWCC.

  15. Mechanical Properties for Reliability Analysis of Structures in Glassy Carbon

    CERN Document Server

    Garion, Cédric

    2014-01-01

    Despite its good physical properties, the glassy carbon material is not widely used, especially for structural applications. Nevertheless, its transparency to particles and temperature resistance are interesting properties for the applications to vacuum chambers and components in high energy physics. For example, it has been proposed for fast shutter valve in particle accelerator [1] [2]. The mechanical properties have to be carefully determined to assess the reliability of structures in such a material. In this paper, mechanical tests have been carried out to determine the elastic parameters, the strength and toughness on commercial grades. A statistical approach, based on the Weibull’s distribution, is used to characterize the material both in tension and compression. The results are compared to the literature and the difference of properties for these two loading cases is shown. Based on a Finite Element analysis, a statistical approach is applied to define the reliability of a structural component in gl...

  16. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  17. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Reliability Analysis of the CERN Radiation Monitoring Electronic System CROME

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2126870

    For the new in-house developed CERN Radiation Monitoring Electronic System (CROME) a reliability analysis is necessary to ensure compliance with the statu-tory requirements regarding the Safety Integrity Level. The required Safety Integrity Level by IEC 60532 standard is SIL 2 (for the Safety Integrated Functions Measurement, Alarm Triggering and Interlock Triggering). The first step of the reliability analysis was a system and functional analysis which served as basis for the implementation of the CROME system in the software “Iso-graph”. In the “Prediction” module of Isograph the failure rates of all components were calculated. Failure rates for passive components were calculated by the Military Standard 217 and failure rates for active components were obtained from lifetime tests by the manufacturers. The FMEA was carried out together with the board designers and implemented in the “FMECA” module of Isograph. The FMEA served as basis for the Fault Tree Analysis and the detection of weak points...

  19. Combined multi-criteria and cost-benefit analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld

    1996-01-01

    The paper is an introduction to both theory and application of combined Cost-Benefit and Multi-Criteria Analysis. The first section is devoted to basic utility theory and its practical application in Cost-Benefit Analysis. Based on some of the problems encountered, arguments in favour...... of the application of utility-based Multi-Criteria Analyses methods as an extension and refinement of the traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis are provided. The theory presented in this paper is closely related the methods used in the WARP software (Leleur & Jensen, 1989). The presentation is however wider in scope.......The second section introduces the stated preference methodology used in WARP to create weight profiles for project pool sensitivity analysis. This section includes a simple example. The third section discusses how decision makers can get a priori aid to make their pair-wise comparisons based on project pool...

  20. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  1. A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, John W.; Gallo, Luis; Kaminsky, Mark

    2012-01-01

    Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

  2. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, D.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  3. Substance precedes methodology: on cost-benefit analysis and equity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, C.J.C.M.

    2011-01-01

    While distributive aspects have been a topic of discussion in relation to cost–benefit analysis (CBA), little systematic thought has been given in the CBA literature to the focus of such an equity analysis in evaluating transport projects. The goal of the paper is to provide an overview of the

  4. Fifty Years of THERP and Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    In 1962 at a Human Factors Society symposium, Alan Swain presented a paper introducing a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). This was followed in 1963 by a Sandia Laboratories monograph outlining basic human error quantification using THERP and, in 1964, by a special journal edition of Human Factors on quantification of human performance. Throughout the 1960s, Swain and his colleagues focused on collecting human performance data for the Sandia Human Error Rate Bank (SHERB), primarily in connection with supporting the reliability of nuclear weapons assembly in the US. In 1969, Swain met with Jens Rasmussen of Risø National Laboratory and discussed the applicability of THERP to nuclear power applications. By 1975, in WASH-1400, Swain had articulated the use of THERP for nuclear power applications, and the approach was finalized in the watershed publication of the NUREG/CR-1278 in 1983. THERP is now 50 years old, and remains the most well known and most widely used HRA method. In this paper, the author discusses the history of THERP, based on published reports and personal communication and interviews with Swain. The author also outlines the significance of THERP. The foundations of human reliability analysis are found in THERP: human failure events, task analysis, performance shaping factors, human error probabilities, dependence, event trees, recovery, and pre- and post-initiating events were all introduced in THERP. While THERP is not without its detractors, and it is showing signs of its age in the face of newer technological applications, the longevity of THERP is a testament of its tremendous significance. THERP started the field of human reliability analysis. This paper concludes with a discussion of THERP in the context of newer methods, which can be seen as extensions of or departures from Swain’s pioneering work.

  5. Reliability and Robustness Analysis of the Masinga Dam under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayden Postle-Floyd

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Kenya’s water abstraction must meet the projected growth in municipal and irrigation demand by the end of 2030 in order to achieve the country’s industrial and economic development plan. The Masinga dam, on the Tana River, is the key to meeting this goal to satisfy the growing demands whilst also continuing to provide hydroelectric power generation. This study quantitatively assesses the reliability and robustness of the Masinga dam system under uncertain future supply and demand using probabilistic climate and population projections, and examines how long-term planning may improve the longevity of the dam. River flow and demand projections are used alongside each other as inputs to the dam system simulation model linked to an optimisation engine to maximise water availability. Water availability after demand satisfaction is assessed for future years, and the projected reliability of the system is calculated for selected years. The analysis shows that maximising power generation on a short-term year-by-year basis achieves 80%, 50% and 1% reliability by 2020, 2025 and 2030 onwards, respectively. Longer term optimal planning, however, has increased system reliability to up to 95% in 2020, 80% in 2025, and more than 40% in 2030 onwards. In addition, increasing the capacity of the reservoir by around 25% can significantly improve the robustness of the system for all future time periods. This study provides a platform for analysing the implication of different planning and management of Masinga dam and suggests that careful consideration should be given to account for growing municipal needs and irrigation schemes in both the immediate and the associated Tana River basin.

  6. EMOTIONAL AND VOLITIONAL RELIABILITY AS A SUBJECT OF SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Juan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the scientists’ views on the phenomenon of “reliability”. The author pays special attention to the fact that the concept “reliability” is considered by the scientists as the systematic characteristic, which is characterized by the specific number of professional, psychological, physiological qualities and functions at the different levels of a person’s activity. This activity provides stable and reliable work. It is found out that scientists think the quality is the most important property which provides definiteness to any phenomenon. Personal qualities that affect the maturity of emotional and volitional reliability are established. Scientific interpretation of the concept of “reliability” and the main features of performing reliability is revealed. The analysis of pedagogical and psychological literature proves that the emotional qualities are being formed throughout the life according to the person’s environmental and genetic conditions. Emotional irritability, emotional stability, emotional tone, emotional reactions, emotional stability are the qualities which depend upon a type of a person’s higher nervous activity. The person’s activity, especially music one, can’t exist without involving emotions and feelings. Music plays an important role; due to it emotions become conscious processes. Thanks to music the person’s higher emotions (moral, intellectual, esthetic are formed. It is noticed that individual differences in demonstration of emotions depend on a person’s volitional qualities. Volition is considered to be a person’s psychological activity that determines purposefulness of actions. The author concluded that the maturity level of emotional and volitional reliability depends on direction and resistance of socially significant motives (needs, interests, values, attitudes; personality’s psychophysical traits (abilities, capacities, which provide the required level and effectiveness

  7. A Reliability Analysis of a Rainfall Harvesting System in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena Liuzzo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainwater harvesting (RWH may be an effective alternative water supply solution in regions affected by water scarcity. It has recently become a particularly important option in arid and semi-arid areas (like Mediterranean basins, mostly because of its many benefits and affordable costs. This study provides an analysis of the reliability of using a rainwater harvesting system to supply water for toilet flushing and garden irrigation purposes, with reference to a single-family home in a residential area of Sicily (Southern Italy. A flushing water demand pattern was evaluated using water consumption data collected from a sample of residential customers during an extended measurement campaign. A daily water balance simulation of the rainwater storage tank was performed, and the yield-after-spillage algorithm was used to define the tank release rule. The model’s performance was evaluated using rainfall data from more than 100 different sites located throughout the Sicilian territory. This regional analysis provided annual reliability curves for the system as a function of mean annual precipitation, which have practical applications in this area of study. The uncertainty related to the regional model predictions was also assessed. A cost-benefit analysis highlighted that the implementation of a rainwater harvesting system in Sicily can provide environmental and economic advantages over traditional water supply methods. In particular, the regional analysis identified areas where the application of this system would be most effective.

  8. Human Performance Modeling for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory; Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-08-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reac- tor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Charac- terization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk framework. In this paper, we review simulation based and non simulation based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper summarizes the founda- tional information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human in- teractions in RISMC simulations.

  9. Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    In this paper a reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure modes, considered, are yelding in the tube cross-sections, and fatigue failure in the butt welds. The fatigue failure mode is investigated with a fatigue model, where the fatigue strength is expressed through SN...... for the fatigue limit state is a significant failure mode for the Mono.tower platform. Further, it is shown for the fatigue failure mode the the largest contributions to the overall uncertainty are due to the damping ratio, the inertia coefficient, the stress concentration factor, the model uncertainties...

  10. Reliability analysis of structures under periodic proof tests in service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.-N.

    1976-01-01

    A reliability analysis of structures subjected to random service loads and periodic proof tests treats gust loads and maneuver loads as random processes. Crack initiation, crack propagation, and strength degradation are treated as the fatigue process. The time to fatigue crack initiation and ultimate strength are random variables. Residual strength decreases during crack propagation, so that failure rate increases with time. When a structure fails under periodic proof testing, a new structure is built and proof-tested. The probability of structural failure in service is derived from treatment of all the random variables, strength degradations, service loads, proof tests, and the renewal of failed structures. Some numerical examples are worked out.

  11. Creation and Reliability Analysis of Vehicle Dynamic Weighing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Ling XU

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, it is modeled by using ADAMS to portable axle load meter of dynamic weighing system, controlling a single variable simulation weighing process, getting the simulation weighing data under the different speed and weight; simultaneously using portable weighing system with the same parameters to achieve the actual measurement, comparative analysis the simulation results under the same conditions, at 30 km/h or less, the simulation value and the measured value do not differ by more than 5 %, it is not only to verify the reliability of dynamic weighing model, but also to create possible for improving algorithm study efficiency by using dynamic weighing model simulation.

  12. IDHEAS – A NEW APPROACH FOR HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    G. W. Parry; J.A Forester; V.N. Dang; S. M. L. Hendrickson; M. Presley; E. Lois; J. Xing

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes a method, IDHEAS (Integrated Decision-Tree Human Event Analysis System) that has been developed jointly by the US NRC and EPRI as an improved approach to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) that is based on an understanding of the cognitive mechanisms and performance influencing factors (PIFs) that affect operator responses. The paper describes the various elements of the method, namely the performance of a detailed cognitive task analysis that is documented in a crew response tree (CRT), and the development of the associated time-line to identify the critical tasks, i.e. those whose failure results in a human failure event (HFE), and an approach to quantification that is based on explanations of why the HFE might occur.

  13. Integration of human reliability analysis into the high consequence process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, F.K.; Morzinski, J.

    1998-12-01

    When performing a hazards analysis (HA) for a high consequence process, human error often plays a significant role in the hazards analysis. In order to integrate human error into the hazards analysis, a human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. Human reliability is the probability that a person will correctly perform a system-required activity in a required time period and will perform no extraneous activity that will affect the correct performance. Even though human error is a very complex subject that can only approximately be addressed in risk assessment, an attempt must be made to estimate the effect of human errors. The HRA provides data that can be incorporated in the hazard analysis event. This paper will discuss the integration of HRA into a HA for the disassembly of a high explosive component. The process was designed to use a retaining fixture to hold the high explosive in place during a rotation of the component. This tool was designed as a redundant safety feature to help prevent a drop of the explosive. This paper will use the retaining fixture to demonstrate the following HRA methodology`s phases. The first phase is to perform a task analysis. The second phase is the identification of the potential human, both cognitive and psychomotor, functions performed by the worker. During the last phase the human errors are quantified. In reality, the HRA process is an iterative process in which the stages overlap and information gathered in one stage may be used to refine a previous stage. The rationale for the decision to use or not use the retaining fixture and the role the HRA played in the decision will be discussed.

  14. SARA - SURE/ASSIST RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WORKSTATION (UNIX VERSION)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, R. W.

    1994-01-01

    SARA, the SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, is a bundle of programs used to solve reliability problems. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of four software packages that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation, including three for use in analyzing reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems and one for analyzing non-reconfigurable systems. The SARA bundle includes the three for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), and PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920). As indicated by the program numbers in parentheses, each of these three packages is also available separately in two machine versions. The fourth package, which is only available separately, is FTC, the Fault Tree Compiler (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree which describes a non-reconfigurable system. PAWS/STEM and SURE are analysis programs which utilize different solution methods, but have a common input language, the SURE language. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. ASSIST, SURE, and PAWS/STEM are described briefly in the following paragraphs. For additional details about the individual packages, including pricing, please refer to their respective abstracts. ASSIST, the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool program, allows a reliability engineer to describe the failure behavior of a fault-tolerant computer system in an abstract, high-level language. The ASSIST program then automatically generates a corresponding semi-Markov model. A one-page ASSIST-language description may result in a semi-Markov model with thousands of states and

  15. Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed

  16. Cost-benefit analysis of a regional poison center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blizzard, Joseph Charles; Michels, Jill E; Richardson, William H; Reeder, Clairborne E; Schulz, Richard M; Holstege, Christopher P

    2008-06-01

    Funding poison center (PC) operations has become a major challenge nationwide. Increasingly, state and federal budget cuts have resulted in diminished funding to PCs. In an effort to demonstrate the value of current PC phone services, a cost-benefit analysis of a regional center was completed. A telephone survey was used to collect data from PC callers during an 8-week period in 2004. Callers with human exposure poisonings determined by the PC to be of minimal or no risk were asked to complete the phone survey. Callers were asked their alternative plan if the PC staff had not been available to assist them. Benefits were measured as healthcare charges potentially avoided. A total of 652 caller surveys were completed. The benefit-to-cost ratio was 7.67 (95% C.I. 6.83, 8.50). In addition to non-monetary benefits, the operation of a regional poison center provides significant positive return on investment.

  17. Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffith, Candice D. [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States); Mahadevan, Sankaran, E-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States)

    2011-11-15

    The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: >We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. > We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. > We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

  18. Reliability and maintainability analysis of bread production line.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsarouhas, Panagiotis H; Arvanitoyannis, Ioannis S

    2010-04-01

    The statistical analysis of the bread production line of the failure and repair data at machine and line levels was displayed. The experiment covers a period of twenty-five months. The best fit of the failure data between the common theoretical distributions was found and its parameters were computed. The reliability and hazard rate modes for all machines and the entire production line were calculated as well. The models could prove to be a useful tool to assess the current conditions, and to predict the reliability for upgrading the maintenance policy of the production line. It was pointed out that (a) the availability of the bread production line is 90.74% and went down to 86.76% because the equipment's failures cause an additional production gap in the line, (b) the 53.5% of all failures occurred at the bread machine, cooling tower machine, and volumetric-divider machine, and (c) the machines of the bread production line that displayed increasing hazard rate functions were identified. This analysis will be very useful in terms of identifying the occurring and latent problems in manufacturing process of bread and improve it.

  19. Quantifying neurotransmission reliability through metrics-based information analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasselet, Romain; Johansson, Roland S; Arleo, Angelo

    2011-04-01

    We set forth an information-theoretical measure to quantify neurotransmission reliability while taking into full account the metrical properties of the spike train space. This parametric information analysis relies on similarity measures induced by the metrical relations between neural responses as spikes flow in. Thus, in order to assess the entropy, the conditional entropy, and the overall information transfer, this method does not require any a priori decoding algorithm to partition the space into equivalence classes. It therefore allows the optimal parameters of a class of distances to be determined with respect to information transmission. To validate the proposed information-theoretical approach, we study precise temporal decoding of human somatosensory signals recorded using microneurography experiments. For this analysis, we employ a similarity measure based on the Victor-Purpura spike train metrics. We show that with appropriate parameters of this distance, the relative spike times of the mechanoreceptors' responses convey enough information to perform optimal discrimination--defined as maximum metrical information and zero conditional entropy--of 81 distinct stimuli within 40 ms of the first afferent spike. The proposed information-theoretical measure proves to be a suitable generalization of Shannon mutual information in order to consider the metrics of temporal codes explicitly. It allows neurotransmission reliability to be assessed in the presence of large spike train spaces (e.g., neural population codes) with high temporal precision.

  20. Cost Benefit Analysis: Bypass of Prešov city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margorínová Martina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes decision making process based on economic evaluation, i.e. Cost Benefit Analysis for motorway bypass of the Prešov city. Three variants were evaluated by means of the Highway Development and Management Tool (HDM-4. HDM-4 is a software system for evaluating options for investing in road transport infrastructure. Vehicle operating costs and travel time costs were monetized with the use of the software. The investment opportunities were evaluated in terms of Cost Benefit Analysis results, i.e. economic indicators.

  1. Electric propulsion reliability: Statistical analysis of on-orbit anomalies and comparative analysis of electric versus chemical propulsion failure rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Joseph Homer; Geng, Fan; Ku, Michelle; Walker, Mitchell L. R.

    2017-10-01

    With a few hundred spacecraft launched to date with electric propulsion (EP), it is possible to conduct an epidemiological study of EP's on orbit reliability. The first objective of the present work was to undertake such a study and analyze EP's track record of on orbit anomalies and failures by different covariates. The second objective was to provide a comparative analysis of EP's failure rates with those of chemical propulsion. Satellite operators, manufacturers, and insurers will make reliability- and risk-informed decisions regarding the adoption and promotion of EP on board spacecraft. This work provides evidence-based support for such decisions. After a thorough data collection, 162 EP-equipped satellites launched between January 1997 and December 2015 were included in our dataset for analysis. Several statistical analyses were conducted, at the aggregate level and then with the data stratified by severity of the anomaly, by orbit type, and by EP technology. Mean Time To Anomaly (MTTA) and the distribution of the time to (minor/major) anomaly were investigated, as well as anomaly rates. The important findings in this work include the following: (1) Post-2005, EP's reliability has outperformed that of chemical propulsion; (2) Hall thrusters have robustly outperformed chemical propulsion, and they maintain a small but shrinking reliability advantage over gridded ion engines. Other results were also provided, for example the differentials in MTTA of minor and major anomalies for gridded ion engines and Hall thrusters. It was shown that: (3) Hall thrusters exhibit minor anomalies very early on orbit, which might be indicative of infant anomalies, and thus would benefit from better ground testing and acceptance procedures; (4) Strong evidence exists that EP anomalies (onset and likelihood) and orbit type are dependent, a dependence likely mediated by either the space environment or differences in thrusters duty cycles; (5) Gridded ion thrusters exhibit both

  2. Reliability and accuracy of three different computerized cephalometric analysis software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Oana; Petcu, Ana Elena; Drăgan, Eliza; Haba, Danisia; Moscalu, Mihaela; Zetu, Irina Nicoleta

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this investigation was to determine, compare and evaluate three different computerized tracing programs, where the lateral cephalograms were digitized on the screen. 39 randomly selected cephalometric radiographs were used in the present study. Three programs Planmeca Romexis® (Romexis 3.2.0., Helsinki, Finland), Orthalis (France) and AxCeph (A.C 2.3.0.74, Ljubljana, Slovenia) were evaluated. 12 skeletal, 9 dental and 3 soft tissue parameters were measured that consisted of 11 linear and 13 angular measurements. Statistical analysis was carried out using multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), Levene test, Tukey Honestly Significant Difference (HSD) test and Kruskal-Wallis test. The measurements obtained with the cephalometric analyses programs used in the study were reliable.

  3. Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Bucknor

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general for the postulated transient event.

  4. Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

  5. Reliability modeling and analysis of the polymer transformation process of a sanitising industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murilo Leite Alcantara

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The sanitizing industry has had a growing importance in the Brazilian industrial sector. One of the most important steps for most of the sanitizing industries is the production processes of bottles. The production of these bottles is usually carried out through polymer processing methods such as extrusion and blow molding. In order to increase the industrial production safely, it is necessary to use methods to reduce the occurrence of failures. The study of production systems reliability can be used as a tool to understand and predict the behavior of industrial units’ failures. This paper studies the reliability behavior of a sanitizing industry with the focus on the bottles production. This study was based on three modeling methodologies: Global Life Distribution (GLD, Composite Life Distribution (CDL and Optimum Composite Life Distribution (OCDL. The distributions used were: exponential, Weibull, normal, lognormal, q-exponential and q- Weibull. The reliability behaviors found by these three methodologies were compared with the reliability obtained experimentally. The OCLD methodology overcomes the limitations of both GLD and CLD methodologies, but inherits their strengths. The OCDL methodology resulted in a good representation of the subsystems as well as the overall system behavior. It is also carried out in this paper an analysis of the contribution of the subsystems to the overall probability of system failure. The outgoing profit was calculated and it is a potential indicative of financial benefit that can be obtained with possible future developments of the study.

  6. Employer Benefits From an Early Intervention Program for Depression: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callander, Emily J; Lindsay, Daniel B; Scuffham, Paul A

    2017-03-01

    The Work Outcomes Research Cost-benefit (WORC) project aimed to determine if early intervention for depression influenced workforce productivity in full-time employees. The current study aims to examine whether this intervention is cost-effective. A cost-benefit analysis of the WORC project from the employer's perspective was undertaken, taking into account intervention costs and associated gains due to increased workforce productivity from baseline to 12-month follow-up. Both the single intervention and case management groups were found to have a decrease in time lost at work due to presenteeism. This contributed to net gains resulting from increased workforce productivity in both intervention groups. The results suggest that the WORC intervention was cost-effective. A similar intervention to that described here may be beneficial to employers who are seeking to increase workforce productivity.

  7. Cost-benefit analysis of the ATM automatic deposit service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivica Županović

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Bankers and other financial experts have analyzed the value of automated teller machines (ATM in terms of growing consumer demand, rising costs of technology development, decreasing profitability and market share. This paper presents a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis of the ATM automatic deposit service. The first step is to determine user attitudes towards using ATM automatic deposit service by using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM. The second step is to determine location priorities for ATMs that provide automatic deposit services using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP model. The results of the previous steps enable a highly efficient application of cost-benefit analysis for evaluating costs and benefits of automatic deposit services. To understand fully the proposed procedure outside of theoretical terms, a real-world application of a case study is conducted.

  8. Reliability analysis of the combined district heating systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharapov, V. I.; Orlov, M. E.; Kunin, M. V.

    2015-12-01

    Technologies that improve the reliability and efficiency of the combined district heating systems in urban areas are considered. The calculation method of reliability of the CHP combined district heating systems is proposed. The comparative estimation of the reliability of traditional and combined district heating systems is performed.

  9. ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox: An open-source toolbox for analyzing the reliability of event-related brain potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

    2017-01-01

    Generalizability theory (G theory) provides a flexible, multifaceted approach to estimating score reliability. G theory's approach to estimating score reliability has important advantages over classical test theory that are relevant for research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs). For example, G theory does not require parallel forms (i.e., equal means, variances, and covariances), can handle unbalanced designs, and provides a single reliability estimate for designs with multiple sources of error. This monograph provides a detailed description of the conceptual framework of G theory using examples relevant to ERP researchers, presents the algorithms needed to estimate ERP score reliability, and provides a detailed walkthrough of newly-developed software, the ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox, that calculates score reliability using G theory. The ERA Toolbox is open-source, Matlab software that uses G theory to estimate the contribution of the number of trials retained for averaging, group, and/or event types on ERP score reliability. The toolbox facilitates the rigorous evaluation of psychometric properties of ERP scores recommended elsewhere in this special issue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. NLC Reliability Analysis Notes: Klystron-Modulator System (LCC-0029)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, Z.

    2004-03-23

    This paper address the reliability and availability issues to be faced in deploying and operating the klystron modulator assemblies proposed for the Next Linear Collider (NLC). The rf power sources are a major system of the NLC and require a high uptime in order to reach the goal of 0.85 availability. Since the NLC is made up of several systems, not just klystron-modulator assemblies, the availability goal for the assemblies must be higher than 0.85. Currently this goal is at least 0.95. This short paper summarizes the analysis currently under way to determine whether the design of the rf power system will meet the design availability goal.

  11. Time-dependent reliability analysis and condition assessment of structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellingwood, B.R. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Structures generally play a passive role in assurance of safety in nuclear plant operation, but are important if the plant is to withstand the effect of extreme environmental or abnormal events. Relative to mechanical and electrical components, structural systems and components would be difficult and costly to replace. While the performance of steel or reinforced concrete structures in service generally has been very good, their strengths may deteriorate during an extended service life as a result of changes brought on by an aggressive environment, excessive loading, or accidental loading. Quantitative tools for condition assessment of aging structures can be developed using time-dependent structural reliability analysis methods. Such methods provide a framework for addressing the uncertainties attendant to aging in the decision process.

  12. Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbine Cast Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Fæster, Søren

    2017-01-01

    The fatigue life of wind turbine cast components, such as the main shaft in a drivetrain, is generally determined by defects from the casting process. These defects may reduce the fatigue life and they are generally distributed randomly in components. The foundries, cutting facilities and test.......) and to quantify the relevant uncertainties using available fatigue tests. Illustrative results are presented as obtained by statistical analysis of a large set of fatigue data for casted test components typically used for wind turbines. Furthermore, the SN curves (fatigue life curves based on applied stress...... facilities can affect the verification of properties by testing. Hence, it is important to have a tool to identify which foundry, cutting and/or test facility produces components which, based on the relevant uncertainties, have the largest expected fatigue life or, alternatively, have the largest reliability...

  13. The benefits of customer profitability analysis in the hospitality industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Georgiev

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the benefits of customer profitability analysis implementation according to the specifics of the hotel product and the state of the management accounting in hotels. On this basis is substantiated the necessity management accounting and information systems in the hotels to be anteriorly adapted and developed in relevance with the objectives and methodological tools of customer profitability analysis, while keeping their function in collecting information for operational revenues and costs by responsibility centers. A model for customer profitability analysis based on ABC method is proposed in this connection, providing an example to clarify its methodological aspects and benefits. The latter consist in providing information for the purposes of taking a variety of management decisions regarding costs, product mix, pricing, performance measurement and implementation of various marketing initiatives.

  14. Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2015-11-01

    Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

  15. Reliability analysis of component of affination centrifugal 1 machine by using reliability engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, N.; Ginting, E.; Darnello, T.

    2017-12-01

    Problems that appear in a company that produces refined sugar, the production floor has not reached the level of critical machine availability because it often suffered damage (breakdown). This results in a sudden loss of production time and production opportunities. This problem can be solved by Reliability Engineering method where the statistical approach to historical damage data is performed to see the pattern of the distribution. The method can provide a value of reliability, rate of damage, and availability level, of an machine during the maintenance time interval schedule. The result of distribution test to time inter-damage data (MTTF) flexible hose component is lognormal distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. While from distribution test to mean time of improvement (MTTR) flexible hose component is exponential distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. The actual results of the flexible hose component on the replacement schedule per 720 hours obtained reliability of 0.2451 and availability 0.9960. While on the critical components of teflon cone lifthing actual on the replacement schedule per 1944 hours obtained reliability of 0.4083 and availability 0.9927.

  16. TRICARE Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) Benefit: Comparison with Medicaid and Commercial Benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maglione, Margaret; Kadiyala, Srikanth; Kress, Amii; Hastings, Jaime L; O'Hanlon, Claire E

    2017-01-01

    This study compared the Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) benefit provided by TRICARE as an early intervention for autism spectrum disorder with similar benefits in Medicaid and commercial health insurance plans. The sponsor, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, was particularly interested in how a proposed TRICARE reimbursement rate decrease from $125 per hour to $68 per hour for ABA services performed by a Board Certified Behavior Analyst compared with reimbursement rates (defined as third-party payment to the service provider) in Medicaid and commercial health insurance plans. Information on ABA coverage in state Medicaid programs was collected from Medicaid state waiver databases; subsequently, Medicaid provider reimbursement data were collected from state Medicaid fee schedules. Applied Behavior Analysis provider reimbursement in the commercial health insurance system was estimated using Truven Health MarketScan® data. A weighted mean U.S. reimbursement rate was calculated for several services using cross-state information on the number of children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Locations of potential provider shortages were also identified. Medicaid and commercial insurance reimbursement rates varied considerably across the United States. This project concluded that the proposed $68-per-hour reimbursement rate for services provided by a board certified analyst was more than 25 percent below the U.S. mean.

  17. The National Opportunity for Interoperability and its Benefits for a Reliable, Robust, and Future Grid Realized Through Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

    2016-02-01

    Today, increasing numbers of intermittent generation sources (e.g., wind and photovoltaic) and new mobile intermittent loads (e.g., electric vehicles) can significantly affect traditional utility business practices and operations. At the same time, a growing number of technologies and devices, from appliances to lighting systems, are being deployed at consumer premises that have more sophisticated controls and information that remain underused for anything beyond basic building equipment operations. The intersection of these two drivers is an untapped opportunity and underused resource that, if appropriately configured and realized in open standards, can provide significant energy efficiency and commensurate savings on utility bills, enhanced and lower cost reliability to utilities, and national economic benefits in the creation of new markets, sectors, and businesses being fueled by the seamless coordination of energy and information through device and technology interoperability. Or, as the Quadrennial Energy Review puts it, “A plethora of both consumer-level and grid-level devices are either in the market, under development, or at the conceptual stage. When tied together through the information technology that is increasingly being deployed on electric utilities’ distribution grids, they can be an important enabling part of the emerging grid of the future. However, what is missing is the ability for all of these devices to coordinate and communicate their operations with the grid, and among themselves, in a common language — an open standard.” In this paper, we define interoperability as the ability to exchange actionable information between two or more systems within a home or building, or across and within organizational boundaries. Interoperability relies on the shared meaning of the exchanged information, with agreed-upon expectations and consequences, for the response to the information exchange.

  18. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    In this work, a FORTRAN-based computer computer. Eurocode 2 (EC 2)[1] ... addresses addresses: 1 idrcivil1@yahoo.com, 2 adomaarf1@gmail.com computer computer program was developed to aid the design of reinforced co program was ..... Haldar, A. and Mahadevan, S. Reliability Assessment using Stochastic Finite ...

  19. Multi-Unit Considerations for Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    St. Germain, S.; Boring, R.; Banaseanu, G.; Akl, Y.; Chatri, H.

    2017-03-01

    This paper uses the insights from the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) methodology to help identify human actions currently modeled in the single unit PSA that may need to be modified to account for additional challenges imposed by a multi-unit accident as well as identify possible new human actions that might be modeled to more accurately characterize multi-unit risk. In identifying these potential human action impacts, the use of the SPAR-H strategy to include both errors in diagnosis and errors in action is considered as well as identifying characteristics of a multi-unit accident scenario that may impact the selection of the performance shaping factors (PSFs) used in SPAR-H. The lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accident will be addressed to further help identify areas where improved modeling may be required. While these multi-unit impacts may require modifications to a Level 1 PSA model, it is expected to have much more importance for Level 2 modeling. There is little currently written specifically about multi-unit HRA issues. A review of related published research will be presented. While this paper cannot answer all issues related to multi-unit HRA, it will hopefully serve as a starting point to generate discussion and spark additional ideas towards the proper treatment of HRA in a multi-unit PSA.

  20. Gradual Reliability Sensitivity Analysis of Mechanical Part Considering Preventive Maintenance

    OpenAIRE

    Li Changyou; Liu Haiyang; Guo Song; Zhang Yimin; Li Zhenyuan

    2014-01-01

    A lot of mechanical parts are subject to failure due to the deterioration. Usually the preventive maintenance is taken to ensure the safety and reliability. Therefore, it is very important to study the gradual reliability design of the mechanical part for improving the gradual reliability of the mechanical system under the condition of considering the preventive maintenance. Beta distribution is employed to describe the randomness of the mechanical part state after the preventive maintenance....

  1. Reliability of videotaped observational gait analysis in patients with orthopedic impairments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnekreef, J.J.; Uden, C. van; Moorsel, S. van; Kooloos, J.G.M.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, visual gait observation is often used to determine gait disorders and to evaluate treatment. Several reliability studies on observational gait analysis have been described in the literature and generally showed moderate reliability. However, patients with orthopedic

  2. Cost-benefit analysis of the african risk capacity facility:

    OpenAIRE

    Clarke, Daniel J; Hill, Ruth Vargas

    2013-01-01

    The African Risk Capacity (ARC), has been proposed as a pan-Africa drought risk pool to insure against drought risk in Africa south of the Sahara. If fully operationalized, the ARC will mark a major change in how donors fund emergency support to countries in Africa during times of need. In this paper, we undertake a cost-benefit analysis of the ARC pool and discuss how lessons can inform the design of the ARC.

  3. Can cloud computing benefit health services? - a SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Mu-Hsing; Kushniruk, Andre; Borycki, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss cloud computing, the current state of cloud computing in healthcare, and the challenges and opportunities of adopting cloud computing in healthcare. A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was used to evaluate the feasibility of adopting this computing model in healthcare. The paper concludes that cloud computing could have huge benefits for healthcare but there are a number of issues that will need to be addressed before its widespread use in healthcare.

  4. Wind energy Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) : data collection recommendations for reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, Valerie A.; Ogilvie, Alistair; Veers, Paul S.

    2009-09-01

    This report addresses the general data requirements for reliability analysis of fielded wind turbines and other wind plant equipment. The report provides a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis, and gives specific recommendations for a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) to support automated analysis. This data collection recommendations report was written by Sandia National Laboratories to address the general data requirements for reliability analysis of fielded wind turbines. This report is intended to help the reader develop a basic understanding of what data are needed from a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) and other data systems, for reliability analysis. The report provides: (1) a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis; and (2) specific recommendations for a CMMS to support automated analysis. Though written for reliability analysis of wind turbines, much of the information is applicable to a wider variety of equipment and a wider variety of analysis and reporting needs.

  5. Effectiveness and reliability analysis of emergency measures for flood prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Kok, M.

    2014-01-01

    During flood events emergency measures are used to prevent breaches in flood defences. However, there is still limited insight in their reliability and effectiveness. The objective of this paper is to develop a method to determine the reliability and effectiveness of emergency measures for flood

  6. Review and selection of methods for structural reliability analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Eekelen, A.J.

    1997-01-01

    To select a method for analyzing structural reliability problems, including pptimization under reliability constraints, a literature survey was performed. In this review the most frequently used and most generally applicable methods are described. An extensive list of references is included. The

  7. Wind turbine reliability : a database and analysis approach.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linsday, James (ARES Corporation); Briand, Daniel; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Benjamin, Allan S. (ARES Corporation)

    2008-02-01

    The US wind Industry has experienced remarkable growth since the turn of the century. At the same time, the physical size and electrical generation capabilities of wind turbines has also experienced remarkable growth. As the market continues to expand, and as wind generation continues to gain a significant share of the generation portfolio, the reliability of wind turbine technology becomes increasingly important. This report addresses how operations and maintenance costs are related to unreliability - that is the failures experienced by systems and components. Reliability tools are demonstrated, data needed to understand and catalog failure events is described, and practical wind turbine reliability models are illustrated, including preliminary results. This report also presents a continuing process of how to proceed with controlling industry requirements, needs, and expectations related to Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety. A simply stated goal of this process is to better understand and to improve the operable reliability of wind turbine installations.

  8. Extending Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Approach for Reliability Analysis at the Software Architecture Design Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sözer, Hasan; Tekinerdogan, B.; Aksit, Mehmet; de Lemos, Rogerio; Gacek, Cristina

    2007-01-01

    Several reliability engineering approaches have been proposed to identify and recover from failures. A well-known and mature approach is the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method that is usually utilized together with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to analyze and diagnose the causes of failures.

  9. Procedure for conducting a human-reliability analysis for nuclear power plants. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, B.J.; Swain, A.D.

    1983-05-01

    This document describes in detail a procedure to be followed in conducting a human reliability analysis as part of a probabilistic risk assessment when such an analysis is performed according to the methods described in NUREG/CR-1278, Handbook for Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications. An overview of the procedure describing the major elements of a human reliability analysis is presented along with a detailed description of each element and an example of an actual analysis. An appendix consists of some sample human reliability analysis problems for further study.

  10. Human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques and observational clinical HRA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuschieri, Alfred; Tang, B

    2010-01-01

    This review explains the nature of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods developed and used for predicting safety in high-risk human activities. HRA techniques have evolved over the years and have become less subjective as a result of inclusion of (i) cognitive factors in the man-machine interface and (ii) high and low dependency levels between human failure events (HFEs). All however remain probabilistic in the assessment of safety. In the translation of these techniques, developed for assessment of safety of high-risk industries (nuclear, aerospace etc.) where catastrophic failures from the man-machine complex interface are fortunately rare, to the clinical operative surgery (with its high incidence of human errors), the system loses subjectivity since the documentation of HFEs can be assessed and studied prospectively on the basis of an objective data capture of errors enacted during a defined clinical activity. The observational clinical-HRA (OC-HRA) was developed specifically for this purpose, initially for laparoscopic general surgery. It has however been used by other surgical specialties. OC-HRA has the additional merit of objective determination of the proficiency of a surgeon in executing specific interventions and is adaptable to the evaluation of safety and proficiency in clinical activities within the preoperative and postoperative periods.

  11. Reliability of symptom analysis during carbohydrate hydrogen-breath tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Bañares, Fernando

    2012-09-01

    Relevance of symptom analysis during hydrogen breath test (HBT) for establishing a clinical diagnosis of sugar intolerance is reviewed. Evaluation of symptoms developed in response to the ingestion of 50 g lactose could represent a simple screening test to select patients for lactose intolerance testing. Patients who do not develop symptoms do not need to be referred for HBT. In addition, symptoms reported by patients during a negative HBT cannot be at all times attributed to a false-negative test; instead, a 'nocebo' effect is likely to be implicated. On the other hand, in a double-blind randomized study, a dose of 25 g fructose was suggested as the most appropriate for testing individuals with suspected fructose malabsorption, whereas symptom reliability to diagnose fructose intolerance was inaccurate. Whereas the development of symptoms after a positive HBT may indicate sugar intolerance, it is still not clear whether the absence of symptoms after sugar malabsorption gives any indication as to the role of that sugar in the genesis of patient's complaints. Further studies should evaluate whether the disappearance of symptoms with a sugar-restricted diet after a positive HBT is a better diagnostic criterion of sugar intolerance than the development of symptoms.

  12. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

  13. Benefit Analysis of Emergency Standby System Promoted to Cogeneration System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyi-Wen Wang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Benefit analysis of emergency standby system combined with absorption chiller promoted to cogeneration system is introduced. Economic evaluations of such upgraded projects play a major part in the decisions made by investors. Time-of-use rate structure, fuel cost and system constraints are taken into account in the evaluation. Therefore, the problem is formulated as a mixed-integer programming problem. Using two-stage methodology and modified mixed-integer programming technique, a novel algorithm is developed and introduced here to solve the nonlinear optimization problem. The net present value (NPV method is used to evaluate the annual benefits and years of payback for the cogeneration system. The results indicate that upgrading standby generators to cogeneration systems is profitable and should be encouraged, especially for those utilities with insufficient spinning reserves, and moreover, for those having difficulty constructing new power plants.

  14. Analysis of travel time reliability on Indiana interstates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Travel-time reliability is a key performance measure in any transportation system. It is a : measure of quality of travel time experienced by transportation system users and reflects the efficiency : of the transportation system to serve citizens, bu...

  15. Operation of Reliability Analysis Center (FY85-87)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-08-01

    environmental conditions at the time of the reported failure as well as the exact nature of the failure. 4 The diskette format (FMDR-21A) contains...based upon the reliability and maintainability standards and tasks delineated in NAC R&M-STD-ROO010 (Reliability Program Requirements Seleccion ). These...characteristics, environmental conditions at the time of the reported failure, and the exact nature of the failure, which has been categorized as follows

  16. Reliability Analysis of Random Vibration Transmission Path Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Zhao; Yi-Min Zhang

    2017-01-01

    The vibration transmission path systems are generally composed of the vibration source, the vibration transfer path, and the vibration receiving structure. The transfer path is the medium of the vibration transmission. Moreover, the randomness of transfer path influences the transfer reliability greatly. In this paper, based on the matrix calculus, the generalized second moment technique, and the stochastic finite element theory, the effective approach for the transfer reliability of vibratio...

  17. Psychometric Inferences from a Meta-Analysis of Reliability and Internal Consistency Coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botella, Juan; Suero, Manuel; Gambara, Hilda

    2010-01-01

    A meta-analysis of the reliability of the scores from a specific test, also called reliability generalization, allows the quantitative synthesis of its properties from a set of studies. It is usually assumed that part of the variation in the reliability coefficients is due to some unknown and implicit mechanism that restricts and biases the…

  18. CARES/PC - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szatmary, S. A.

    1994-01-01

    The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES/PC performs statistical analysis of data obtained from the fracture of simple, uniaxial tensile or flexural specimens and estimates the Weibull and Batdorf material parameters from this data. CARES/PC is a subset of the program CARES (COSMIC program number LEW-15168) which calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of ceramic components utilizing the Batdorf and Weibull models to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. CARES additionally requires that the ceramic structure be modeled by a finite element program such as MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS. The more limited CARES/PC does not perform fast-fracture reliability estimation of components. CARES/PC estimates ceramic material properties from uniaxial tensile or from three- and four-point bend bar data. In general, the parameters are obtained from the fracture stresses of many specimens (30 or more are recommended) whose geometry and loading configurations are held constant. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests measure the accuracy of the hypothesis that the fracture data comes from a population with a distribution specified by the estimated Weibull parameters. Ninety-percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters and the unbiased value of the shape parameter for complete samples are provided

  19. Reliability and Creep/Fatigue Analysis of a CMC Component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2007-01-01

    High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight and enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling; thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. There is a need for convenient design tools that can accommodate various loading conditions and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life as well as the failure probabilities of a structural component. This paper presents a review of the life prediction and probabilistic analyses performed for a CMC turbine stator vane. A computer code, NASALife, is used to predict the life of a 2-D woven silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) turbine stator vane due to a mission cycle which induces low cycle fatigue and creep. The output from this program includes damage from creep loading, damage due to cyclic loading and the combined damage due to the given loading cycle. Results indicate that the trends predicted by NASALife are as expected for the loading conditions used for this study. In addition, a combination of woven composite micromechanics, finite element structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Results indicate that reducing the scatter in proportional limit strength of the vane material has the greatest effect in improving the overall reliability of the CMC vane.

  20. Infrastructures and Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    2012-01-01

    Design and maintenance of infrastructures using Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit analysis is discussed in this paper with special emphasis on users costs. This is for several infrastructures such as bridges, highways etc. of great importance. Repair or/and failure of infrastructures will usually result...... in user costs greater than the repair or replacement costs of the infrastructure. For the society (and the users) it is therefore of great importance that maintenance or replacement of an infrastructure is performed in such a way that all costs are minimized - not only the owners cost....

  1. A Probabilistic Physics of Failure Approach for Structure Corrosion Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaoyang Xie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Corrosion is recognized as one of the most important degradation mechanisms that affect the long-term reliability and integrity of metallic structures. Studying the structural reliability with pitting corrosion damage is useful for risk control and safety operation for the corroded structure. This paper proposed a structure corrosion reliability analysis approach based on the physics-based failure model of pitting corrosion, where the states of pitting growth, pit-to-crack, and cracking propagation are included in failure model. Then different probabilistic analysis methods such as Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS, First-Order Reliability Method (FORM, Second-Order Reliability Method (SORM, and response surface method are employed to calculate the reliability. At last, an example is presented to demonstrate the capability of the proposed structural reliability model and calculating methods for structural corrosion failure analysis.

  2. Benefit-cost analysis framework for evaluating inter-city transit investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-10-01

    This report describes the development and application of a benefit/cost analysis (BCA) model to support the evaluation of investment decisions for intercity bus services. The model recognizes two principle types of intercity bus benefits: benefits th...

  3. Terrorism risks and cost-benefit analysis of aviation security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G; Mueller, John

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break-even cost-benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, ED; Fridge, Ernie; Hamaker, Joe

    1990-01-01

    Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are

  5. Reliability Analysis of Random Vibration Transmission Path Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The vibration transmission path systems are generally composed of the vibration source, the vibration transfer path, and the vibration receiving structure. The transfer path is the medium of the vibration transmission. Moreover, the randomness of transfer path influences the transfer reliability greatly. In this paper, based on the matrix calculus, the generalized second moment technique, and the stochastic finite element theory, the effective approach for the transfer reliability of vibration transfer path systems was provided. The transfer reliability of vibration transfer path system with uncertain path parameters including path mass and path stiffness was analyzed theoretically and computed numerically, and the correlated mathematical expressions were derived. Thus, it provides the theoretical foundation for the dynamic design of vibration systems in practical project, so that most random path parameters can be considered to solve the random problems for vibration transfer path systems, which can avoid the system resonance failure.

  6. Reliability modeling and analysis of smart power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Karki, Rajesh; Verma, Ajit Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The volume presents the research work in understanding, modeling and quantifying the risks associated with different ways of implementing smart grid technology in power systems in order to plan and operate a modern power system with an acceptable level of reliability. Power systems throughout the world are undergoing significant changes creating new challenges to system planning and operation in order to provide reliable and efficient use of electrical energy. The appropriate use of smart grid technology is an important drive in mitigating these problems and requires considerable research acti

  7. Windfarm Generation Assessment for ReliabilityAnalysis of Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, Nicola Barberis; Holmstrøm, Ole; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...... in a reliability model and the generation of a windfarm is evaluated by means of sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Results are used to analyse how each mentioned Factor influences the assessment, and why and when they should be included in the model....

  8. Windfarm Generation Assessment for Reliability Analysis of Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barberis Negra, Nicola; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Holmstrøm, O.

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...... in a reliability model and the generation of a windfarm is evaluated by means of sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Results are used to analyse how each mentioned Factor influences the assessment, and why and when they should be included in the model....

  9. Technical information report: Plasma melter operation, reliability, and maintenance analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendrickson, D.W. [ed.

    1995-03-14

    This document provides a technical report of operability, reliability, and maintenance of a plasma melter for low-level waste vitrification, in support of the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Vitrification Program. A process description is provided that minimizes maintenance and downtime and includes material and energy balances, equipment sizes and arrangement, startup/operation/maintence/shutdown cycle descriptions, and basis for scale-up to a 200 metric ton/day production facility. Operational requirements are provided including utilities, feeds, labor, and maintenance. Equipment reliability estimates and maintenance requirements are provided which includes a list of failure modes, responses, and consequences.

  10. Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

    CERN Document Server

    El Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

  11. Reliability analysis of wind turbines exposed to dynamic loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Wind turbines are exposed to highly dynamic loads that cause fatigue and extreme load effects which are subject to significant uncertainties. Further, reduction of cost of energy for wind turbines are very important in order to make wind energy competitive compared to other energy sources......, substructure and foundation considering especially fatigue loads. The function of a wind turbine is highly dependent on many electrical and mechanical components as well as a control system also reliability aspects of these components are discussed and it is described how there reliability influences...

  12. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A DG INTEGRATED SYSTEM: CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ch. V. S. S. SAILAJA

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Distributed Generation is capable of meeting the load of the consumers partially or completely. Depending on the type of DG involved it can be operated in interconnected mode and islanded mode. The availability of numerous alternatives present for the DG technologies and large initial investments necessitates a detailed cost benefit analysis for the implementation of DG technologies. In this work an attempt has been made to study the costs involved in implementing the DG technologies. A practical system having two kinds of distributed generation i.e., Diesel Generator and solar photovoltaic system for its back up purpose is considered. A detailed cost analysis of the two DG technologies is carried out.

  13. Health Monitoring System Technology Assessments: Cost Benefits Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Renee M.; Murphy, Dennis A.

    2000-01-01

    The subject of sensor-based structural health monitoring is very diverse and encompasses a wide range of activities including initiatives and innovations involving the development of advanced sensor, signal processing, data analysis, and actuation and control technologies. In addition, it embraces the consideration of the availability of low-cost, high-quality contributing technologies, computational utilities, and hardware and software resources that enable the operational realization of robust health monitoring technologies. This report presents a detailed analysis of the cost benefit and other logistics and operational considerations associated with the implementation and utilization of sensor-based technologies for use in aerospace structure health monitoring. The scope of this volume is to assess the economic impact, from an end-user perspective, implementation health monitoring technologies on three structures. It specifically focuses on evaluating the impact on maintaining and supporting these structures with and without health monitoring capability.

  14. Exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis with missing data: A simple method for SPSS users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Weaver

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Missing data is a frequent problem for researchers conducting exploratory factor analysis (EFA or reliability analysis. The SPSS FACTOR procedure allows users to select listwise deletion, pairwise deletion or mean substitution as a method for dealing with missing data. The shortcomings of these methods are well-known. Graham (2009 argues that a much better way to deal with missing data in this context is to use a matrix of expectation maximization (EM covariances(or correlations as input for the analysis. SPSS users who have the Missing Values Analysis add-on module can obtain vectors ofEM means and standard deviations plus EM correlation and covariance matrices via the MVA procedure. But unfortunately, MVA has no /MATRIX subcommand, and therefore cannot write the EM correlations directly to a matrix dataset of the type needed as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We describe two macros that (in conjunction with an intervening MVA command carry out the data management steps needed to create two matrix datasets, one containing EM correlations and the other EM covariances. Either of those matrix datasets can then be used asinput to the FACTOR procedure, and the EM correlations can also be used as input to RELIABILITY. We provide an example that illustrates the use of the two macros to generate the matrix datasets and how to use those datasets as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We hope that this simple method for handling missing data will prove useful to both students andresearchers who are conducting EFA or reliability analysis.

  15. Reliability of Computer Analysis of Electrocardiograms (ECG) of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Computer programmes have been introduced to electrocardiography (ECG) with most physicians in Africa depending on computer interpretation of ECG. This study was undertaken to evaluate the reliability of computer interpretation of the 12-Lead ECG in the Black race. Methodology: Using the SCHILLER ...

  16. Length effects in reliability analysis of flood protection systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2006-01-01

    The defence against flooding by storm surges and large river discharges are provided by complex systems of dikes, dunes, retaining walls, higher grounds, barriers, locks and so on. Spatial correlations inside and between the various components play an important role in the reliability and risk

  17. reliability analysis of a two span floor designed according to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    This paper presents the structural reliability assessment of a two span timber floor of strength class ... buildings uses some form of wood-based panel products, ..... grain(N/mm²). Lognormal. 0.15. 4. Imposed load (N/mm). Gumbel. 0.30. 5. B.

  18. Reliability Analysis of a Two Dissimilar Unit Cold Standby System ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria ... INTRODUCTION. Reliability is a vital for proper utilization and maintenance of any system. It involves technique for increasing system effectiveness through reducing .... P t denote the probability row vector at time t, the.

  19. Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waters, Robert D. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1993-05-01

    Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption.

  20. Inter-rater reliability of trunk muscle morphometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentin, Stephanie; Yeates, Tobey DeMott; Licka, Theresia; Elliott, James

    2015-01-01

    Inter-rater reliability of generalised lumbar extensor muscle CSA has been identified, however, more detailed reliability metrics of individual trunk muscles are lacking. To report muscle volume and muscle fatty infiltrate (MFI) inter-rater reliability of individual trunk muscles between two novice assessors. Lumbar axial MRI scans from 10 healthy male participants were analysed. The muscles erector spinae (ES), multifidus (M), rectus abdominis (RA), and psoas (PS) were manually traced, region of interest quantified and muscle volume and MFI determined by both assessors. Agreement between the assessors was determined using intraclass correlation coefficients (3,1), Bland-Altman plots and Lin's concordance coefficient. Good to excellent agreement was found for volume (ICC 0.77-0.96) and MFI (0.84-0.96) for all muscles on first evaluation, except for M volume, which required a second evaluation. Best agreement for muscle volume and MFI was found for ES (ICC 0.96). First evaluation of muscle volume and MFI yields high to excellent inter-rater agreement, except for M, where further training and/or experience is required to achieve acceptable reliability outcomes. This may have clinical implications due to the relevance of M atrophy reported in patients with low back pain.

  1. Factorial validation and reliability analysis of the brain fag syndrome ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Brain fag is an indigenous psychopathology or culture-bound syndrome formally documented in Nigeria in the 1960's by Raymond Prince. Objective: The need for a factorial examination of the scale to ensure factorial validity and also to examine the reliability of this screening scale. Methods: Two hundred thirty ...

  2. Architecture-Based Reliability Analysis of Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Cobra Mariam

    2012-01-01

    In a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), the hierarchical complexity of Web Services (WS) and their interactions with the underlying Application Server (AS) create new challenges in providing a realistic estimate of WS performance and reliability. The current approaches often treat the entire WS environment as a black-box. Thus, the sensitivity…

  3. Erratum: Comparative Analysis of Some Reliability Characteristics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, probabilistic models for a system with different stage deteriorations have been developed to analyze and compare some reliability characteristics. Three configurations are studied under the assumption that each state that is working in reduced capacity is minimally repaired and the system is replaced at failure.

  4. Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

    2014-01-01

    For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

  5. Comparison of Methods for Dependency Determination between Human Failure Events within Human Reliability Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Marko Čepin

    2008-01-01

    The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease subjectivity of human reliability analysi...

  6. Microgrid Design Analysis Using Technology Management Optimization and the Performance Reliability Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eddy, John P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jensen, Richard P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Munoz-Ramos, Karina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Microgrids are a focus of localized energy production that support resiliency, security, local con- trol, and increased access to renewable resources (among other potential benefits). The Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration for Energy Reliability and Security (SPIDERS) Joint Capa- bility Technology Demonstration (JCTD) program between the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Energy (DOE), and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) resulted in the pre- liminary design and deployment of three microgrids at military installations. This paper is focused on the analysis process and supporting software used to determine optimal designs for energy surety microgrids (ESMs) in the SPIDERS project. There are two key pieces of software, an ex- isting software application developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) called Technology Management Optimization (TMO) and a new simulation developed for SPIDERS called the per- formance reliability model (PRM). TMO is a decision support tool that performs multi-objective optimization over a mixed discrete/continuous search space for which the performance measures are unrestricted in form. The PRM is able to statistically quantify the performance and reliability of a microgrid operating in islanded mode (disconnected from any utility power source). Together, these two software applications were used as part of the ESM process to generate the preliminary designs presented by SNL-led DOE team to the DOD. Acknowledgements Sandia National Laboratories and the SPIDERS technical team would like to acknowledge the following for help in the project: * Mike Hightower, who has been the key driving force for Energy Surety Microgrids * Juan Torres and Abbas Akhil, who developed the concept of microgrids for military instal- lations * Merrill Smith, U.S. Department of Energy SPIDERS Program Manager * Ross Roley and Rich Trundy from U.S. Pacific Command * Bill Waugaman and Bill Beary from U.S. Northern Command * Tarek Abdallah, Melanie

  7. Agenda-setting for Canadian caregivers: using media analysis of the maternity leave benefit to inform the compassionate care benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykeman, Sarah; Williams, Allison M

    2014-04-24

    The Compassionate Care Benefit was implemented in Canada in 2004 to support employed informal caregivers, the majority of which we know are women given the gendered nature of caregiving. In order to examine how this policy might evolve over time, we examine the evolution of a similar employment insurance program, Canada's Maternity Leave Benefit. National media articles were reviewed (n = 2,698) and, based on explicit criteria, were analyzed using content analysis. Through the application of Kingdon's policy agenda-setting framework, the results define key recommendations for the Compassionate Care Benefit, as informed by the developmental trajectory of the Maternity Leave Benefit. Recommendations for revising the Compassionate Care Benefit are made.

  8. Reliability Analysis and Standardization of Spacecraft Command Generation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Grenander, Sven; Evensen, Ken

    2011-01-01

    center dot In order to reduce commanding errors that are caused by humans, we create an approach and corresponding artifacts for standardizing the command generation process and conducting risk management during the design and assurance of such processes. center dot The literature review conducted during the standardization process revealed that very few atomic level human activities are associated with even a broad set of missions. center dot Applicable human reliability metrics for performing these atomic level tasks are available. center dot The process for building a "Periodic Table" of Command and Control Functions as well as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models is demonstrated. center dot The PRA models are executed using data from human reliability data banks. center dot The Periodic Table is related to the PRA models via Fault Links.

  9. Preventive Replacement Decisions for Dragline Components Using Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuray Demirel

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Reliability-based maintenance policies allow qualitative and quantitative evaluation of system downtimes via revealing main causes of breakdowns and discussing required preventive activities against failures. Application of preventive maintenance is especially important for mining machineries since production is highly affected from machinery breakdowns. Overburden stripping operations are one of the integral parts in surface coal mine productions. Draglines are extensively utilized in overburden stripping operations and they achieve earthmoving activities with bucket capacities up to 168 m3. The massive structure and operational severity of these machines increase the importance of performance awareness for individual working components. Research on draglines is rarely observed in the literature and maintenance studies for these earthmovers have been generally ignored. On this basis, this paper offered a comprehensive reliability assessment for two draglines currently operating in the Tunçbilek coal mine and discussed preventive replacement for wear-out components of the draglines considering cost factors.

  10. Analysis of the Reliable STING Early Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-03-01

    Decisions. The SHORAD leadership (oattery and platcon) and the divi- sion airspace management element (DAME) are concerned with the irplementation of the...REO.GER ’El test it was aeterrrined that the rost significant feature of Reliable STING was its ability tc pinpcint aircraft Locations. Also, the rate of...distance that an aircraft travels between radar detection and fire unit receipt of tne track report is the rost critical of the Trobleirs identified above

  11. Intrinsic Geometric Analysis of the Network Reliability and Voltage Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, N.; Tiwari, B. N.; S. Bellucci

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the intrinsic geometric model for the solution of power system planning and its operation. This problem is large-scale and nonlinear, in general. Thus, we have developed the intrinsic geometric model for the network reliability and voltage stability, and examined it for the IEEE 5 bus system. The robustness of the proposed model is illustrated by introducing variations of the network parameters. Exact analytical results show the accuracy as well as the efficiency of the pr...

  12. Launch and Assembly Reliability Analysis for Human Space Exploration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Grant; Gelito, Justin; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, William; Goodliff, Kandyce

    2012-01-01

    NASA's future human space exploration strategy includes single and multi-launch missions to various destinations including cis-lunar space, near Earth objects such as asteroids, and ultimately Mars. Each campaign is being defined by Design Reference Missions (DRMs). Many of these missions are complex, requiring multiple launches and assembly of vehicles in orbit. Certain missions also have constrained departure windows to the destination. These factors raise concerns regarding the reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support planned departure. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing launch and assembly reliability in any single DRM or set of DRMs starting with flight hardware manufacturing and ending with final departure to the destination. A discrete event simulation is built for each DRM that includes the pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; ground transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to trans-destination-injection. Each reliability factor can be selectively activated or deactivated so that the most critical risk factors can be identified. This enables NASA to prioritize mitigation actions so as to improve mission success.

  13. A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Prenatal Screening for Toxoplasmosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vic S Sahai

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine critically the validity of a toxoplasma prenatal screening program, in the context of a cost-benefit analysis, as it relates to the Canadian experience. Recently, studies have suggested that early treatment of infected infants with a combination of pyrimethamine and sulfadiazine is effective in reducing the sequelae of toxoplasmosis. It was concluded that a carefully planned screening program for detecting and treating infants infected with Toxoplasma gondii during pregnancy is cost beneficial. The cost of delivering a screening and treatment program is less than half of what it would cost to provide comprehensive long term medical, educational and other social services for the estimated 1000 children born each year with congenital toxoplasmosis. Even if an incidence as low as two infected infants per 1000 pregnancies is assumed and only 400 children were affected, the screening and preventive therapy program would be justified.

  14. Depth of manual dismantling analysis: A cost–benefit approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achillas, Ch., E-mail: c.achillas@ihu.edu.gr [School of Economics and Business Administration, International Hellenic University, 14th km Thessaloniki-Moudania, 57001 Thermi (Greece); Aidonis, D. [Department of Logistics, Alexander Technological Educational Institute, Branch of Katerini, 60100 Katerini (Greece); Vlachokostas, Ch.; Karagiannidis, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Loulos, V. [Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Box 483, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece)

    2013-04-15

    Highlights: ► A mathematical modeling tool for OEMs. ► The tool can be used by OEMs, recyclers of electr(on)ic equipment or WEEE management systems’ regulators. ► The tool makes use of cost–benefit analysis in order to determine the optimal depth of product disassembly. ► The reusable materials and the quantity of metals and plastics recycled can be quantified in an easy-to-comprehend manner. - Abstract: This paper presents a decision support tool for manufacturers and recyclers towards end-of-life strategies for waste electrical and electronic equipment. A mathematical formulation based on the cost benefit analysis concept is herein analytically described in order to determine the parts and/or components of an obsolete product that should be either non-destructively recovered for reuse or be recycled. The framework optimally determines the depth of disassembly for a given product, taking into account economic considerations. On this basis, it embeds all relevant cost elements to be included in the decision-making process, such as recovered materials and (depreciated) parts/components, labor costs, energy consumption, equipment depreciation, quality control and warehousing. This tool can be part of the strategic decision-making process in order to maximize profitability or minimize end-of-life management costs. A case study to demonstrate the models’ applicability is presented for a typical electronic product in terms of structure and material composition. Taking into account the market values of the pilot product’s components, the manual disassembly is proven profitable with the marginal revenues from recovered reusable materials to be estimated at 2.93–23.06 €, depending on the level of disassembly.

  15. Multicriteria benefit-risk assessment using network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Valkenhoef, Gert; Tervonen, Tommi; Zhao, Jing; de Brock, Bert; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2012-04-01

    To enable multicriteria benefit-risk (BR) assessment of any number of alternative treatments using all available evidence from a network of clinical trials. We design a general method for multicriteria decision aiding with criteria measurements from Mixed Treatment Comparison (MTC) analyses. To evaluate the method, we apply it to BR assessment of four second-generation antidepressants and placebo in the setting of a published peer-reviewed systematic review. The analysis without preference information shows that placebo is supported by a wide range of possible preferences. Preference information provided by a clinical expert showed that although treatment with antidepressants is warranted for severely depressed patients, for mildly depressed patients placebo is likely to be the best option. It is difficult to choose between the four antidepressants, and the results of the model indicate a high degree of uncertainty. The designed method enables quantitative BR analysis of alternative treatments using all available evidence from a network of clinical trials. The preference-free analysis can be useful in presenting the results of an MTC considering multiple outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A dimensional analysis of the benefits derived from physical activity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The perceived benefits of regular physical activity are well documented in literature. However, despite the benefits many university students do not engage in physical activity. The purpose of the study was to examine the potential benefits that university students receive from physical activity participation. The secondary ...

  17. A survey on reliability and safety analysis techniques of robot systems in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, H.S.; Kim, J.H.; Lee, J.C.; Choi, Y.R.; Moon, S.S

    2000-12-01

    The reliability and safety analysis techniques was surveyed for the purpose of overall quality improvement of reactor inspection system which is under development in our current project. The contents of this report are : 1. Reliability and safety analysis techniques suvey - Reviewed reliability and safety analysis techniques are generally accepted techniques in many industries including nuclear industry. And we selected a few techniques which are suitable for our robot system. They are falut tree analysis, failure mode and effect analysis, reliability block diagram, markov model, combinational method, and simulation method. 2. Survey on the characteristics of robot systems which are distinguished from other systems and which are important to the analysis. 3. Survey on the nuclear environmental factors which affect the reliability and safety analysis of robot system 4. Collection of the case studies of robot reliability and safety analysis which are performed in foreign countries. The analysis results of this survey will be applied to the improvement of reliability and safety of our robot system and also will be used for the formal qualification and certification of our reactor inspection system.

  18. Using a Hybrid Cost-FMEA Analysis for Wind Turbine Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nacef Tazi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA has been proven to be an effective methodology to improve system design reliability. However, the standard approach reveals some weaknesses when applied to wind turbine systems. The conventional criticality assessment method has been criticized as having many limitations such as the weighting of severity and detection factors. In this paper, we aim to overcome these drawbacks and develop a hybrid cost-FMEA by integrating cost factors to assess the criticality, these costs vary from replacement costs to expected failure costs. Then, a quantitative comparative study is carried out to point out average failure rate, main cause of failure, expected failure costs and failure detection techniques. A special reliability analysis of gearbox and rotor-blades are presented.

  19. Reliability Analysis of Timber Structures through NDT Data Upgrading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sousa, Hélder; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    The first part of this document presents, in chapter 2, a description of timber characteristics and common used NDT and MDT for timber elements. Stochastic models for timber properties and damage accumulation models are also referred. According to timber’s properties a framework is proposed...... for robustness are dealt in chapter 5. The second part of this document begins in chapter 6, where a practical application of the premise definitions and methodologies is given through the implementation of upgraded models with NDT and MDT data. Structural life-cycle is, therefore, assessed and reliability...

  20. ANALYSIS OF INDICATORS OF RELIABILITY OF ELECTRICAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu V.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Problems of the optimization reliability in electrical networks of the different class of voltage have probabilistic nature, they discretely change and depend on the number of factors both definite and indefinite and have importance by selection of electric equipment, graph of development of electrical networks and voltage levels. The definition of the major factors, which have determining significance on their value and speed of their change allow to elaborate methods of their optimization and to elaborate effective methods of their growth limitation in electrical networks with the different class of voltage.

  1. Reliability and maintenance analysis of the CERN PS booster

    CERN Document Server

    Staff, P S B

    1977-01-01

    The PS Booster Synchrotron being a complex accelerator with four superposed rings and substantial additional equipment for beam splitting and recombination, doubts were expressed at the time of project authorization as to its likely operational reliability. For 1975 and 1976, the average down time was 3.2% (at least one ring off) or 1.5% (all four rings off). The items analysed are: operational record, design features, maintenance, spare parts policy, operating temperature, effects of thunderstorms, fault diagnostics, role of operations staff and action by experts. (15 refs).

  2. Analysis of Critical Earth Observation Priorities for Societal Benefit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zell, E. R.; Huff, A. K.; Carpenter, A. T.; Friedl, L.

    2011-12-01

    To ensure that appropriate near real-time (NRT) and historical Earth observation data are available to benefit society and meet end-user needs, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) sponsored a multi-disciplinary study to identify a set of critical and common Earth observations associated with 9 Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs): Agriculture, Biodiversity, Climate, Disasters, Ecosystems, Energy, Health, Water, and Weather. GEO is an intergovernmental organization working to improve the availability, access, and use of Earth observations to benefit society through a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The study, overseen by the GEO User Interface Committee, focused on the "demand" side of Earth observation needs: which users need what types of data, and when? The methodology for the study was a meta-analysis of over 1,700 publicly available documents addressing Earth observation user priorities, under the guidance of expert advisors from around the world. The result was a ranking of 146 Earth observation parameters that are critical and common to multiple SBAs, based on an ensemble of 4 statistically robust methods. Within the results, key details emerged on NRT observations needed to serve a broad community of users. The NRT observation priorities include meteorological parameters, vegetation indices, land cover and soil property observations, water body and snow cover properties, and atmospheric composition. The results of the study and examples of NRT applications will be presented. The applications are as diverse as the list of priority parameters. For example, NRT meteorological and soil moisture information can support monitoring and forecasting for more than 25 infectious diseases, including epidemic diseases, such as malaria, and diseases of major concern in the U.S., such as Lyme disease. Quickly evolving events that impact forests, such as fires and insect outbreaks, can be monitored and forecasted with a combination of vegetation indices, fuel

  3. Strategic cost-benefit analysis of energy policies: detailed projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davitian, H.; Groncki, P.J.; Kleeman, P.; Lukachinski, J.

    1979-10-01

    Current US energy policy includes many programs directed toward restructuring the energy system in order to decrease US dependence on foreign supplies and to increase our reliance on plentiful and environmentally benign energy forms. However, recent events have led to renewed concern over the direction of current energy policy. This study describes three possible energy strategies and analyzes each in terms of its economic, environmental, and national security benefits and costs. Each strategy is represented by a specific policy. In the first, no additional programs or policies are initiated beyond those currently in effect or announced. The second is directed toward reducing the growth in energy demand, i.e., energy conservation. The third promotes increased domestic supply through accelerated development of synthetic and unconventional fuels. The analysis focuses on the evaluation and comparison of these strategy alternatives with respect to their energy, economic, and environmental consequences. Results indicate that conservation can substantially reduce import dependence and slow the growth of energy demand, with only a small macroeconomic cost and with substantial environmental benefits; the synfuels policy reduces imports by a smaller amount, does not reduce the growth in energy demand, involves substantial environmental costs and slows the rate of economic growth. These relationships could be different if the energy savings per unit cost for conservation are less than anticipated, or if the costs of synthetic fuels can be significantly lowered. Given these uncertainties, both conservation and RD and D support for synfuels should be included in future energy policy. However, between these policy alternatives, conservation appears to be the preferred strategy. The results of this study are presented in three reports (see also BNL--51105 and BNL--51128). 11 references, 3 figures, 61 tables.

  4. HLRF-BFGS-Based Algorithm for Inverse Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakul Bharatwaj Ramesh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an algorithm to solve inverse reliability problems with a single unknown parameter. The proposed algorithm is based on an existing algorithm, the inverse first-order reliability method (inverse-FORM, which uses the Hasofer Lind Rackwitz Fiessler (HLRF algorithm. The initial algorithm analyzed in this study was developed by modifying the HLRF algorithm in inverse-FORM using the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldarb-Shanno (BFGS update formula completely. Based on numerical experiments, this modification was found to be more efficient than inverse-FORM when applied to most of the limit state functions considered in this study, as it requires comparatively a smaller number of iterations to arrive at the solution. However, to achieve this higher computational efficiency, this modified algorithm sometimes compromised the accuracy of the final solution. To overcome this drawback, a hybrid method by using both the algorithms, original HLRF algorithm and the modified algorithm with BFGS update formula, is proposed. This hybrid algorithm achieves better computational efficiency, compared to inverse-FORM, without compromising the accuracy of the final solution. Comparative numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the improved performance of this hybrid algorithm over that of inverse-FORM in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

  5. A Probabilistic Physics of Failure Approach for Structure Corrosion Reliability Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Chaoyang Xie; Hong-Zhong Huang

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is recognized as one of the most important degradation mechanisms that affect the long-term reliability and integrity of metallic structures. Studying the structural reliability with pitting corrosion damage is useful for risk control and safety operation for the corroded structure. This paper proposed a structure corrosion reliability analysis approach based on the physics-based failure model of pitting corrosion, where the states of pitting growth, pit-to-crack, and cracking propa...

  6. The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaier, Eric M.; Edlich, Alexander; Santmire, Tara S.; Wingrove, Earl R.., III

    1999-01-01

    To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the

  7. Who gains? allocation of freight transport user benefits from international infrastructure projects in multicountry cost-benefit analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Kristensen, Niels Buus

    2005-01-01

    A public decision by several countries on whether to cofinance an international infrastructure project is the subject of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The CBA elements are broken out and analyzed for each country. The issue of freight user benefits is discussed, and results are derived from...... a partial equilibrium model and point toward practical applicability. A recent analysis of the Fehmarn Belt Bridge, which will connect Denmark and Germany in a link in the Trans-European Network for Transport, is used for illustrative purposes....

  8. Low Carbon-Oriented Optimal Reliability Design with Interval Product Failure Analysis and Grey Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yixiong Feng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of large amounts of carbon emissions causes wide concern across the world, and it has become a serious threat to the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. The intensive research into technologies and methodologies for green product design has significant theoretical meaning and practical value in reducing the emissions of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, a low carbon-oriented product reliability optimal design model is proposed in this paper: (1 The related expert evaluation information was prepared in interval numbers; (2 An improved product failure analysis considering the uncertain carbon emissions of the subsystem was performed to obtain the subsystem weight taking the carbon emissions into consideration. The interval grey correlation analysis was conducted to obtain the subsystem weight taking the uncertain correlations inside the product into consideration. Using the above two kinds of subsystem weights and different caution indicators of the decision maker, a series of product reliability design schemes is available; (3 The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs were employed to select the optimal reliability and optimal design scheme based on three attributes, namely, low carbon, correlation and functions, and economic cost. The case study of a vertical CNC lathe proves the superiority and rationality of the proposed method.

  9. Design and Analysis of Transport Protocols for Reliable High-Speed Communications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oláh, A.

    1997-01-01

    The design and analysis of transport protocols for reliable communications constitutes the topic of this dissertation. These transport protocols guarantee the sequenced and complete delivery of user data over networks which may lose, duplicate and reorder packets. Reliable transport services are

  10. Reliability of three-dimensional gait analysis in cervical spondylotic myelopathy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDermott, Ailish

    2010-10-01

    Gait impairment is one of the primary symptoms of cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). Detailed assessment is possible using three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA), however the reliability of 3DGA for this population has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the test-retest reliability of temporal-spatial, kinematic and kinetic parameters in a CSM population.

  11. Application of Reliability Analysis for Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Christiani, E.

    1995-01-01

    Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of some of the most important failure modes are described. The failures are sliding and slip surface failure of a rubble mound and a clay foundation. Relevant design vari...

  12. Reliability analysis of crankshaft for high-speed punch based on Monte-Carlo method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinzhou; Chen, Lan; Gan, Shuyuan; Wang, Yuan; Ren, Naifei; Zhou, Jian

    2017-10-01

    The crankshaft, which has fateful consequence to the performance and reliability, is a key component of high-speed punch. In manufacturing process, the high reliability value of crankshaft contributes to the increasing of the reliability of the whole punch system. The study builds a reliability analysis model of the crankshaft for punching process under the premise of regarding design parameters as random variables. Monte-Carlo method is employed to make reliability analysis for crankshaft based on ANSYS. The numerical results present that the failure probability of strength and stiffness for crankshaft satisfied the use requirement. The impact of every input variable on reliability are obtained from the sensitivity analysis of status function factors. The design variable D4 and PRXY have the greatest impact on the strength of crankshaft and the design variable YOUNG and L3 have the greatest impact on the stiffness of crankshaft. And the result matches up with the response surface graph. The reliability analysis result provides some useful information for the improvement of the reliability of crankshaft for high-speed punch.

  13. Risk and reliability analysis theory and applications : in honor of Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

  14. Analysis of design tool attributes with regards to sustainability benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zain, S.; Ismail, A. F.; Ahmad, Z.; Adesta, E. Y. T.

    2018-01-01

    The trend of global manufacturing competitiveness has shown a significant shift from profit and customer driven business to a more harmonious sustainability paradigm. This new direction, which emphasises the interests of three pillars of sustainability, i.e., social, economic and environment dimensions, has changed the ways products are designed. As a result, the roles of design tools in the product development stage of manufacturing in adapting to the new strategy are vital and increasingly challenging. The aim of this paper is to review the literature on the attributes of design tools with regards to the sustainability perspective. Four well-established design tools are selected, namely Quality Function Deployment (QFD), Failure Mode and Element Analysis (FMEA), Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) and Design for Environment (DfE). By analysing previous studies, the main attributes of each design tool and its benefits with respect to each sustainability dimension throughout four stages of product lifecycle are discussed. From this study, it is learnt that each of the design tools contributes to the three pillars of sustainability either directly or indirectly, but they are unbalanced and not holistic. Therefore, the prospective of improving and optimising the design tools is projected, and the possibility of collaboration between the different tools is discussed.

  15. A study in the reliability analysis method for nuclear power plant structures (I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Byung Hwan; Choi, Seong Cheol; Shin, Ho Sang; Yang, In Hwan; Kim, Yi Sung; Yu, Young; Kim, Se Hun [Seoul, Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-03-15

    Nuclear power plant structures may be exposed to aggressive environmental effects that may cause their strength and stiffness to decrease over their service life. Although the physics of these damage mechanisms are reasonably well understood and quantitative evaluation of their effects on time-dependent structural behavior is possible in some instances, such evaluations are generally very difficult and remain novel. The assessment of existing steel containment in nuclear power plants for continued service must provide quantitative evidence that they are able to withstand future extreme loads during a service period with an acceptable level of reliability. Rational methodologies to perform the reliability assessment can be developed from mechanistic models of structural deterioration, using time-dependent structural reliability analysis to take loading and strength uncertainties into account. The final goal of this study is to develop the analysis method for the reliability of containment structures. The cause and mechanism of corrosion is first clarified and the reliability assessment method has been established. By introducing the equivalent normal distribution, the procedure of reliability analysis which can determine the failure probabilities has been established. The influence of design variables to reliability and the relation between the reliability and service life will be continued second year research.

  16. Comparative Analysis of the Reliability of Steel Structure with Pinned and Rigid Nodes Subjected to Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubicka, Katarzyna; Radoń, Urszula; Szaniec, Waldemar; Pawlak, Urszula

    2017-10-01

    The paper concerns the reliability analysis of steel structures subjected to high temperatures of fire gases. Two types of spatial structures were analysed, namely with pinned and rigid nodes. The fire analysis was carried out according to prescriptions of Eurocode. The static-strength analysis was conducted using the finite element method (FEM). The MES3D program, developed by Szaniec (Kielce University of Technology, Poland), was used for this purpose. The results received from MES3D made it possible to carry out the reliability analysis using the Numpress Explore program that was developed at the Institute of Fundamental Technological Research of the Polish Academy of Sciences [9]. The measurement of reliability of structures is the Hasofer-Lind reliability index (β). The reliability analysis was carried out according to approximation (FORM, SORM) and simulation (Importance Sampling, Monte Carlo) methods. As the fire progresses, the value of reliability index decreases. The analysis conducted for the study made it possible to evaluate the impact of node types on those changes. In real structures, it is often difficult to define correctly types of nodes, so some simplifications are made. The presented analysis contributes to the recognition of consequences of such assumptions for the safety of structures, subjected to fire.

  17. Task analysis and computer aid development for human reliability analysis in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, W. C.; Kim, H.; Park, H. S.; Choi, H. H.; Moon, J. M.; Heo, J. Y.; Ham, D. H.; Lee, K. K.; Han, B. T. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea)

    2001-04-01

    Importance of human reliability analysis (HRA) that predicts the error's occurrence possibility in a quantitative and qualitative manners is gradually increased by human errors' effects on the system's safety. HRA needs a task analysis as a virtue step, but extant task analysis techniques have the problem that a collection of information about the situation, which the human error occurs, depends entirely on HRA analyzers. The problem makes results of the task analysis inconsistent and unreliable. To complement such problem, KAERI developed the structural information analysis (SIA) that helps to analyze task's structure and situations systematically. In this study, the SIA method was evaluated by HRA experts, and a prototype computerized supporting system named CASIA (Computer Aid for SIA) was developed for the purpose of supporting to perform HRA using the SIA method. Additionally, through applying the SIA method to emergency operating procedures, we derived generic task types used in emergency and accumulated the analysis results in the database of the CASIA. The CASIA is expected to help HRA analyzers perform the analysis more easily and consistently. If more analyses will be performed and more data will be accumulated to the CASIA's database, HRA analyzers can share freely and spread smoothly his or her analysis experiences, and there by the quality of the HRA analysis will be improved. 35 refs., 38 figs., 25 tabs. (Author)

  18. Benefit Analysis of the Automated Flow Control Function of the Air Traffic Control Systems Command Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-06-01

    This report summarizes the findings of a benefit analysis study of the present and proposed Air Traffic Control Systems Command Center automation systems. The benefits analyzed were those associated with Fuel Advisory Departure and Quota Flow procedu...

  19. Intraobserver and intermethod reliability for using two different computer programs in preoperative lower limb alignment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Kenawey

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: Computer assisted lower limb alignment analysis is reliable whether using graphics editing program or specialized planning software. However slight higher variability for angles away from the knee joint can be expected.

  20. A Reliability Centered Maintenance Analysis of Aircraft Control Bearings Used in the Navy's S-3 Aircraft

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    King, Merrill

    1997-01-01

    .... We show in our analysis that each bearing should be redesigned. In our research, we analyzed and established a historical bearing failure data baseline of current reliability and maintenance costs...

  1. Simulation and Non-Simulation Based Human Reliability Analysis Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk model. In this report, we review simulation-based and non-simulation-based human reliability assessment (HRA) methods. Chapter 2 surveys non-simulation-based HRA methods. Conventional HRA methods target static Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Level 1 events. These methods would require significant modification for use in dynamic simulation of Level 2 and Level 3 events. Chapter 3 is a review of human performance models. A variety of methods and models simulate dynamic human performance; however, most of these human performance models were developed outside the risk domain and have not been used for HRA. The exception is the ADS-IDAC model, which can be thought of as a virtual operator program. This model is resource-intensive but provides a detailed model of every operator action in a given scenario, along with models of numerous factors that can influence operator performance. Finally, Chapter 4 reviews the treatment of timing of operator actions in HRA methods. This chapter is an example of one of the critical gaps between existing HRA methods and the needs of dynamic HRA. This report summarizes the foundational information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human interactions in the RISMC simulations.

  2. Benefits for plants in ant-plant protective mutualisms: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew D Trager

    Full Text Available Costs and benefits for partners in mutualistic interactions can vary greatly, but surprisingly little is known about the factors that drive this variation across systems. We conducted a meta-analysis of ant-plant protective mutualisms to quantify the effects of ant defenders on plant reproductive output, to evaluate if reproductive effects were predicted from reductions in herbivory and to identify characteristics of the plants, ants and environment that explained variation in ant protection. We also compared our approach with two other recent meta-analyses on ant-plant mutualisms, emphasizing differences in our methodology (using a weighted linear mixed effects model and our focus on plant reproduction rather than herbivore damage. Based on 59 ant and plant species pairs, ant presence increased plant reproductive output by 49% and reduced herbivory by 62%. The effects on herbivory and reproduction within systems were positively correlated, but the slope of this relationship (0.75 indicated that tolerance to foliar herbivory may be a common plant response to absence of ant guards. Furthermore, the relationship between foliar damage and reproduction varied substantially among systems, suggesting that herbivore damage is not a reliable surrogate for fitness consequences of ant protection. Studies that experimentally excluded ants reported a smaller effect of ant protection on plant reproduction than studies that relied upon natural variation in ant presence, suggesting that study methods can affect results in these systems. Of the ecological variables included in our analysis, only plant life history (i.e., annual or perennial explained variation in the protective benefit of mutualistic ants: presence of ants benefitted reproduction of perennials significantly more than that of annuals. These results contrast with other quantitative reviews of these relationships that did not include plant life history as an explanatory factor and raise several

  3. Benefits for plants in ant-plant protective mutualisms: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trager, Matthew D; Bhotika, Smriti; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Andrade, Gilda V; Rodriguez-Cabal, Mariano A; McKeon, C Seabird; Osenberg, Craig W; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2010-12-22

    Costs and benefits for partners in mutualistic interactions can vary greatly, but surprisingly little is known about the factors that drive this variation across systems. We conducted a meta-analysis of ant-plant protective mutualisms to quantify the effects of ant defenders on plant reproductive output, to evaluate if reproductive effects were predicted from reductions in herbivory and to identify characteristics of the plants, ants and environment that explained variation in ant protection. We also compared our approach with two other recent meta-analyses on ant-plant mutualisms, emphasizing differences in our methodology (using a weighted linear mixed effects model) and our focus on plant reproduction rather than herbivore damage. Based on 59 ant and plant species pairs, ant presence increased plant reproductive output by 49% and reduced herbivory by 62%. The effects on herbivory and reproduction within systems were positively correlated, but the slope of this relationship (0.75) indicated that tolerance to foliar herbivory may be a common plant response to absence of ant guards. Furthermore, the relationship between foliar damage and reproduction varied substantially among systems, suggesting that herbivore damage is not a reliable surrogate for fitness consequences of ant protection. Studies that experimentally excluded ants reported a smaller effect of ant protection on plant reproduction than studies that relied upon natural variation in ant presence, suggesting that study methods can affect results in these systems. Of the ecological variables included in our analysis, only plant life history (i.e., annual or perennial) explained variation in the protective benefit of mutualistic ants: presence of ants benefitted reproduction of perennials significantly more than that of annuals. These results contrast with other quantitative reviews of these relationships that did not include plant life history as an explanatory factor and raise several questions to guide

  4. A Cost to Benefit Analysis of a Next Generation Electric Power Distribution System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, Apurva

    This thesis provides a cost to benefit analysis of the proposed next generation of distribution systems- the Future Renewable Electric Energy Distribution Management (FREEDM) system. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources onto the grid, it becomes necessary to have an infrastructure that allows for easy integration of these resources coupled with features like enhanced reliability of the system and fast protection from faults. The Solid State Transformer (SST) and the Fault Isolation Device (FID) make for the core of the FREEDM system and have huge investment costs. Some key features of the FREEDM system include improved power flow control, compact design and unity power factor operation. Customers may observe a reduction in the electricity bill by a certain fraction for using renewable sources of generation. There is also a possibility of huge subsidies given to encourage use of renewable energy. This thesis is an attempt to quantify the benefits offered by the FREEDM system in monetary terms and to calculate the time in years required to gain a return on investments made. The elevated cost of FIDs needs to be justified by the advantages they offer. The result of different rates of interest and how they influence the payback period is also studied. The payback periods calculated are observed for viability. A comparison is made between the active power losses on a certain distribution feeder that makes use of distribution level magnetic transformers versus one that makes use of SSTs. The reduction in the annual active power losses in the case of the feeder using SSTs is translated onto annual savings in terms of cost when compared to the conventional case with magnetic transformers. Since the FREEDM system encourages operation at unity power factor, the need for installing capacitor banks for improving the power factor is eliminated and this reflects in savings in terms of cost. The FREEDM system offers enhanced reliability when compared to a

  5. EUS Morphology Is Reliable in Selecting Patients with Mucinous Pancreatic Cyst(s Most Likely to Benefit from Surgical Resection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siddharth Javia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Study Aims. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS surveillance of patients with mucinous pancreatic cysts relies on the assessment of morphologic features suggestive of malignant transformation. These criteria were derived from the evaluation of surgical pathology in patients with pancreatic cysts who underwent surgery. Reliability of these criteria when evaluated by EUS in identifying lesions which require surgery has still not been established. Patients and Methods. This retrospective cohort study included seventy-eight patients who underwent surgical resection of pancreatic cysts based on EUS-FNA (fine-needle aspiration findings suggestive of mucinous pancreatic cysts with concern for malignancy. Results. Final surgical pathology diagnoses of patients were the following: adenocarcinoma (19, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN (39, mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN (13, serous cystadenoma (2, pseudocyst (3, mucinous solid-cystic lesion of indeterminate type (1, and mesenteric cyst (1. Cysts with focal wall thickening ≥ 3 mm (p=0.0008, dilation of pancreatic duct (PD (p=0.0067, and cyst size ≥ 3 cm (p=0.016 had significantly higher risk of adenocarcinoma. None of the patients without any of these morphologic features had cancer. Conclusions. In patients with mucinous pancreatic cyst(s, focal wall thickening, cyst size ≥ 3 cm, and PD dilation as assessed by EUS can help identify advanced mucinous cysts which require surgery and should routinely be evaluated during EUS surveillance.

  6. Parametric and semiparametric models with applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life

    CERN Document Server

    Nikulin, M; Mesbah, M; Limnios, N

    2004-01-01

    Parametric and semiparametric models are tools with a wide range of applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life. This self-contained volume examines these tools in survey articles written by experts currently working on the development and evaluation of models and methods. While a number of chapters deal with general theory, several explore more specific connections and recent results in "real-world" reliability theory, survival analysis, and related fields.

  7. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Cast Iron Water Pipes for Agricultural Food Irrigation

    OpenAIRE

    Yanling Ni

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the reliability and sensitivity of cast iron water pipes for agricultural food irrigation. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used for fracture assessment and reliability analysis of cast iron pipes for agricultural food irrigation. Fracture toughness is considered as a limit state function for corrosion affected cast iron pipes. Then the influence of failure mode on the probability of pipe failure has been discussed. Sensitivity analysis also is carried out t...

  8. Reliability analysis of a gravity-based foundation for wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Griffiths, D. V.; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard

    2014-01-01

    Deterministic code-based designs proposed for wind turbine foundations, are typically biased on the conservative side, and overestimate the probability of failure which can lead to higher than necessary construction cost. In this study reliability analysis of a gravity-based foundation concerning...... technique to perform the reliability analysis. The calibrated code-based design approach leads to savings of up to 20% in the concrete foundation volume, depending on the target annual reliability level. The study can form the basis for future optimization on deterministic-based designs for wind turbine...... foundations....

  9. Low-carbon benefit analysis on DG penetration distribution system

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    GE, Shaoyun; XU, Li; LIU, Hong; FANG, Jian

    2015-01-01

    .... This paper proposes a pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method for the low-carbon benefit evaluation of distribution system including distributed wind turbines, solar array and battery energy storage systems...

  10. HIV antibody screening among immigrants: a cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zowall, H; Fraser, R D; Gilmore, N; Deutsch, A; Grover, S

    1990-07-15

    To assess the economic impact of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) antibody screening among potential immigrants on Canada's health care system we estimated the costs and benefits of such screening among the 160 135 immigrants who entered Canada in 1988 using the in-hospital costs of treating AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) over the 10 years after immigration. This economic model was based on current international HIV seroprevalence data, Canadian immigration statistics and estimates of disease progression. Between 343 and 862 of the immigrants were estimated to have been HIV seropositive; with the use of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the Western blot technique 310 to 780 of them would have been correctly identified as being seropositive, and 33 to 82 would have been incorrectly classified as being seronegative. Another 16 would have been falsely classified as being seropositive. There would have been 151 to 379 cases of AIDS from 1988 to 1998 among the immigrants identified as being HIV-positive. The estimated total cost of screening would have been $3.3 to $3.4 million. The in-hospital costs of treating HIV-infected immigrants in whom AIDS developed between 1989 and 1998 would have been $5.0 to $17.1 million. Accordingly, screening would have saved $1.7 to $13.7 million over the 10 years after immigration. However, we do not advocate screening on the basis of economic analysis alone and acknowledge that any policy regarding such screening must also incorporate social, legal and ethical considerations.

  11. A cost-benefit analysis using contingent valuation techniques: a feasibility study in spinal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haefeli, Mathias; Elfering, Achim; McIntosh, Emma; Gray, Alastair; Sukthankar, Atul; Boos, Norbert

    2008-01-01

    To carry out a pilot study to demonstrate the feasibility of the contingent valuation (CV) approach to identify net benefits gained from spinal interventions; and to conduct a formal cost-benefit analysis (CBA) using a retrospective study design. The study design is a CBA feasibility study using a CV survey with ex post willingness-to-pay/willingness-to-accept (WTP/WTA) questions. The CBA study was carried out in the specialty of spinal surgery. Although increasing data are gathered on the societal costs of low back pain, little information is available on how patients "value" the benefits of surgery or whether interventions in this area are indeed cost-beneficial. CV surveys are used in CBA to elicit the consumer's monetary valuations for program benefits. A total of 115 patients after lumbar fusion, discectomy, or decompression were asked to respond to an ex post questionnaire on their WTP/WTA for their respective intervention. Additional questions addressed socio-demographics, household income, and clinical outcome. WTP/WTA was related to the actual intervention costs and clinical outcome. The WTP and cost data were then combined within a formal CBA framework with associated 95% confidence intervals generated using bootstrapping methods. The response rate was 91.3% (n = 105). 89.5% were satisfied/very satisfied with the treatment. 76.2% found the result of the operation was good/excellent and 75.7% would choose the operation for a given hypothetical intervention cost. Mean stated WTP was 20% lower than the actual operation costs (not known to respondents) for spinal fusion, although it was 37% higher for discectomy and 10% higher for decompression. The individuals' financial situation was the strongest predictor for WTP. Pain improvement, present pain, duration of hospitalization, and estimated intervention costs were significant independent predictors in the expected direction for the WTP, having controlled for socio-demographic and financial confounding

  12. Structured information analysis for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun; Ha, Jae Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-02-01

    More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest SIA (Structured Information Analysis) for HRA. The proposed SIA consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis module that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis, systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task. 48 refs., 12 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  13. Lean VOC-Air Mixtures Catalytic Treatment: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Competing Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Baldissone

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Various processing routes are available for the treatment of lean VOC-air mixtures, and a cost-benefit analysis is the tool we propose to identify the most suitable technology. Two systems have been compared in this paper, namely a “traditional” plant, with a catalytic fixed-bed reactor with a heat exchanger for heat recovery purposes, and a “non-traditional” plant, with a catalytic reverse-flow reactor, where regenerative heat recovery may be achieved thanks to the periodical reversal of the flow direction. To be useful for decisions-making, the cost-benefit analysis must be coupled to the reliability, or availability, analysis of the plant. Integrated Dynamic Decision Analysis is used for this purpose as it allows obtaining the full set of possible sequences of events that could result in plant unavailability, and, for each of them, the probability of occurrence is calculated. Benefits are thus expressed in terms of out-of-services times, that have to be minimized, while the costs are expressed in terms of extra-cost for maintenance activities and recovery actions. These variable costs must be considered together with the capital (fixed cost required for building the plant. Results evidenced the pros and cons of the two plants. The “traditional” plant ensures a higher continuity of services, but also higher operational costs. The reverse-flow reactor-based plant exhibits lower operational costs, but a higher number of protection levels are needed to obtain a similar level of out-of-service. The quantification of risks and benefits allows the stakeholders to deal with a complete picture of the behavior of the plants, fostering a more effective decision-making process. With reference to the case under study and the relevant operational conditions, the regenerative system was demonstrated to be more suitable to treat lean mixtures: in terms of time losses following potential failures the two technologies are comparable (Fixed bed

  14. Service reliability assessment using failure mode and effect analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Despite Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) being a strategic technique for creation of error free service operation, detailed survey study and development of opportunity roadmap for FMEA application in service operation is limited in literature. We presented a preliminary literature survey between 1994 and 2010 that ...

  15. Academic Expectations Stress Inventory: Development, Factor Analysis, Reliability, and Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Rebecca P.; Huan, Vivien S.

    2006-01-01

    This article describes the development and initial validation of obtained scores from the Academic Expectations Stress Inventory (AESI), which measures expectations as a source of academic stress in middle and high school Asian students. In the first study, exploratory factor analysis results from 721 adolescents suggested a nine-item scale with…

  16. Stochastic Response and Reliability Analysis of Hysteretic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørk, Kim Jørgensen

    During the last 30 years response analysis of structures under random excitation has been studied in detail. These studies are motivated by the fact that most of natures excitations, such as earthquakes, wind and wave loads exhibit randomly fluctuating characters. For safety reasons this randomne...

  17. Automated migration analysis based on cell texture: method & reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chittenden Thomas W

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this paper, we present and validate a way to measure automatically the extent of cell migration based on automated examination of a series of digital photographs. It was designed specifically to identify the impact of Second Hand Smoke (SHS on endothelial cell migration but has broader applications. The analysis has two stages: (1 preprocessing of image texture, and (2 migration analysis. Results The output is a graphic overlay that indicates the front lines of cell migration superimposed on each original image, with automated reporting of the distance traversed vs. time. Expert preference compares to manual placement of leading edge shows complete equivalence of automated vs. manual leading edge definition for cell migration measurement. Conclusion Our method is indistinguishable from careful manual determinations of cell front lines, with the advantages of full automation, objectivity, and speed.

  18. Synovitis and tenosynovitis in Brazil: analysis of sickness benefit claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Dilma Maria de; Barbosa-Branco, Anadergh

    2015-01-01

    To analyse the personal and occupational factors associated with the prevalence and duration of sickness benefit claims due to synovitis and tenosynovitis (CID10 M65). Cross-sectional study regarding sickness benefit claims due to synovitis and tenosynovitis granted to employees by National Institute of Social Security in Brazil in 2008. Data on economic activity (Economic Activities National Classification - CNAE division, class), sex, age, type and duration of benefits were collected from the Unified Benefit System. The study's population consists of the average monthly employment contracts declared to the National Register of Social Information. In 2008, 35,601 employees were granted sickness benefits due to synovitis and tenosynovitis, with a prevalence of 10.9/10,000 employments. Sickness benefits showed higher prevalence rates (PR) for work-related claims (PR 1,2), mostly made by females (PR 3.3) and by workers older than 39 years (PR 1,4). The CNAE 37-Sewage (55.4) and 60-Broadcasting Activity (47.1) had the highest overall prevalence. However, the 64-Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding and 6422-Multiple banks with commercial service had the highest rates of work-related claims (RP 3.2 and 3.8, respectively), and the longer duration (70 and 73 days, respectively). Workers older than 39 years had the highest durations of work disability claims. Both the CNAE-division 60-Broadcasting Activity, and the CNAE-class 6010-Radio showed a high activity ratio of females (PR 8.1 and 10.8, respectively). The work disability due to synovitis and tenosynovitis presents prevalence and duration associated with economic activity, sex, age and kind of benefit (non work-related and work-related claims).

  19. Creation and Reliability Analysis of Vehicle Dynamic Weighing Model

    OpenAIRE

    Zhi-Ling XU; Pei-Pei Shen

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, it is modeled by using ADAMS to portable axle load meter of dynamic weighing system, controlling a single variable simulation weighing process, getting the simulation weighing data under the different speed and weight; simultaneously using portable weighing system with the same parameters to achieve the actual measurement, comparative analysis the simulation results under the same conditions, at 30 km/h or less, the simulation value and the measured value do not differ by more ...

  20. Probability maps as a measure of reliability for indivisibility analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joksić Dušan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Digital terrain models (DTMs represent segments of spatial data bases related to presentation of terrain features and landforms. Square grid elevation models (DEMs have emerged as the most widely used structure during the past decade because of their simplicity and simple computer implementation. They have become an important segment of Topographic Information Systems (TIS, storing natural and artificial landscape in forms of digital models. This kind of a data structure is especially suitable for morph metric terrain evaluation and analysis, which is very important in environmental and urban planning and Earth surface modeling applications. One of the most often used functionalities of Geographical information systems software packages is indivisibility or view shed analysis of terrain. Indivisibility determination from analog topographic maps may be very exhausting, because of the large number of profiles that have to be extracted and compared. Terrain representation in form of the DEMs databases facilitates this task. This paper describes simple algorithm for terrain view shed analysis by using DEMs database structures, taking into consideration the influence of uncertainties of such data to the results obtained thus far. The concept of probability maps is introduced as a mean for evaluation of results, and is presented as thematic display.

  1. A Reliable Method for Rhythm Analysis during Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Ayala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interruptions in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR compromise defibrillation success. However, CPR must be interrupted to analyze the rhythm because although current methods for rhythm analysis during CPR have high sensitivity for shockable rhythms, the specificity for nonshockable rhythms is still too low. This paper introduces a new approach to rhythm analysis during CPR that combines two strategies: a state-of-the-art CPR artifact suppression filter and a shock advice algorithm (SAA designed to optimally classify the filtered signal. Emphasis is on designing an algorithm with high specificity. The SAA includes a detector for low electrical activity rhythms to increase the specificity, and a shock/no-shock decision algorithm based on a support vector machine classifier using slope and frequency features. For this study, 1185 shockable and 6482 nonshockable 9-s segments corrupted by CPR artifacts were obtained from 247 patients suffering out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. The segments were split into a training and a test set. For the test set, the sensitivity and specificity for rhythm analysis during CPR were 91.0% and 96.6%, respectively. This new approach shows an important increase in specificity without compromising the sensitivity when compared to previous studies.

  2. Reliability analysis and risk-based methods for planning of operation & maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    Reliability analysis and probabilistic models for wind turbines are considered with special focus on structural components and application for reliability-based calibration of partial safety factors. The main design load cases to be considered in design of wind turbine components are presented...... for extreme and fatigue limit states are presented. Operation & Maintenance planning often follows corrective and preventive strategies based on information from condition monitoring and structural health monitoring systems. A reliability- and riskbased approach is presented where a life-cycle approach...... including the effects of the control system and possible faults due to failure of electrical / mechanical components. Considerations are presented on the target reliability level for wind turbine structural components. Application is shown for reliability-based calibrations of partial safety factors...

  3. Childhood lead exposure in France: benefit estimation and partial cost-benefit analysis of lead hazard control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Lead exposure remains a public health concern due to its serious adverse effects, such as cognitive and behavioral impairment: children younger than six years of age being the most vulnerable population. In Europe, the lead-related economic impacts have not been examined in detail. We estimate the annual costs in France due to childhood exposure and, through a cost benefit analysis (CBA), aim to assess the expected social and economic benefits of exposure abatement. Methods Monetary benefits were assessed in terms of avoided national costs. We used results from a 2008 survey on blood-lead (B-Pb) concentrations in French children aged one to six years old. Given the absence of a threshold concentration being established, we performed a sensitivity analysis assuming different hypothetical threshold values for toxicity above 15 μg/L, 24 μg/L and 100 μg/L. Adverse health outcomes of lead exposure were translated into social burden and economic costs based on literature data from literature. Direct health benefits, social benefits and intangible avoided costs were included. Costs of pollutant exposure control were partially estimated in regard to homes lead-based paint decontamination, investments aiming at reducing industrial lead emissions and removal of all lead drinking water pipes. Results The following overall annual benefits for the three hypothetical thresholds values in 2008 are: €22.72 billion, €10.72 billion and €0.44 billion, respectively. Costs from abatement ranged from €0.9 billion to 2.95 billion/year. Finally, from a partial CBA of lead control in soils and dust the estimates of total net benefits were € 3.78 billion, € 1.88 billion and €0.25 billion respectively for the three hypothesized B-Pb effect values. Conclusions Prevention of childhood lead exposure has a high social benefit, due to reduction of B-Pb concentrations to levels below 15 μg/L or 24 μg/L, respectively. Reducing only exposures above 100 μg/L B-Pb has

  4. Childhood lead exposure in France: benefit estimation and partial cost-benefit analysis of lead hazard control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zmirou-Navier Denis

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lead exposure remains a public health concern due to its serious adverse effects, such as cognitive and behavioral impairment: children younger than six years of age being the most vulnerable population. In Europe, the lead-related economic impacts have not been examined in detail. We estimate the annual costs in France due to childhood exposure and, through a cost benefit analysis (CBA, aim to assess the expected social and economic benefits of exposure abatement. Methods Monetary benefits were assessed in terms of avoided national costs. We used results from a 2008 survey on blood-lead (B-Pb concentrations in French children aged one to six years old. Given the absence of a threshold concentration being established, we performed a sensitivity analysis assuming different hypothetical threshold values for toxicity above 15 μg/L, 24 μg/L and 100 μg/L. Adverse health outcomes of lead exposure were translated into social burden and economic costs based on literature data from literature. Direct health benefits, social benefits and intangible avoided costs were included. Costs of pollutant exposure control were partially estimated in regard to homes lead-based paint decontamination, investments aiming at reducing industrial lead emissions and removal of all lead drinking water pipes. Results The following overall annual benefits for the three hypothetical thresholds values in 2008 are: €22.72 billion, €10.72 billion and €0.44 billion, respectively. Costs from abatement ranged from €0.9 billion to 2.95 billion/year. Finally, from a partial CBA of lead control in soils and dust the estimates of total net benefits were € 3.78 billion, € 1.88 billion and €0.25 billion respectively for the three hypothesized B-Pb effect values. Conclusions Prevention of childhood lead exposure has a high social benefit, due to reduction of B-Pb concentrations to levels below 15 μg/L or 24 μg/L, respectively. Reducing only exposures

  5. Reliability and life-cycle analysis of deteriorating systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    This book compiles and critically discusses modern engineering system degradation models and their impact on engineering decisions. In particular, the authors focus on modeling the uncertain nature of degradation considering both conceptual discussions and formal mathematical formulations. It also describes the basics concepts and the various modeling aspects of life-cycle analysis (LCA).  It highlights the role of degradation in LCA and defines optimum design and operation parameters. Given the relationship between operational decisions and the performance of the system’s condition over time, maintenance models are also discussed. The concepts and models presented have applications in a large variety of engineering fields such as Civil, Environmental, Industrial, Electrical and Mechanical engineering. However, special emphasis is given to problems related to large infrastructure systems. The book is intended to be used both as a reference resource for researchers and practitioners and as an academic text ...

  6. Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 6. Technical Appendices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-09-01

    This last volume, includes five technical appendices which document the methodologies used in the benefit-cost analysis. They are the following: Scenario analysis methodology; Impact estimation; Example of impact estimation; Sensitivity analysis; Agg...

  7. The Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale: A systematic review and reliability generalization meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueras, Jose A; Martín-Vivar, María; Sandin, Bonifacio; San Luis, Concepción; Pineda, David

    2017-08-15

    Anxiety and depression are among the most common mental disorders during childhood and adolescence. Among the instruments for the brief screening assessment of symptoms of anxiety and depression, the Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale (RCADS) is one of the more widely used. Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of the RCADS for different assessment settings and different versions. The aims of this study were to examine the mean reliability of the RCADS and the influence of the moderators on the RCADS reliability. We searched in EBSCO, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and NCBI databases and other articles manually from lists of references of extracted articles. A total of 146 studies were included in our meta-analysis. The RCADS showed robust internal consistency reliability in different assessment settings, countries, and languages. We only found that reliability of the RCADS was significantly moderated by the version of RCADS. However, these differences in reliability between different versions of the RCADS were slight and can be due to the number of items. We did not examine factor structure, factorial invariance across gender, age, or country, and test-retest reliability of the RCADS. The RCADS is a reliable instrument for cross-cultural use, with the advantage of providing more information with a low number of items in the assessment of both anxiety and depression symptoms in children and adolescents. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Report on the analysis of field data relating to the reliability of solar hot water systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menicucci, David F. (Building Specialists, Inc., Albuquerque, NM)

    2011-07-01

    Utilities are overseeing the installations of thousand of solar hot water (SHW) systems. Utility planners have begun to ask for quantitative measures of the expected lifetimes of these systems so that they can properly forecast their loads. This report, which augments a 2009 reliability analysis effort by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), addresses this need. Additional reliability data have been collected, added to the existing database, and analyzed. The results are presented. Additionally, formal reliability theory is described, including the bathtub curve, which is the most common model to characterize the lifetime reliability character of systems, and for predicting failures in the field. Reliability theory is used to assess the SNL reliability database. This assessment shows that the database is heavily weighted with data that describe the reliability of SHW systems early in their lives, during the warranty period. But it contains few measured data to describe the ends of SHW systems lives. End-of-life data are the most critical ones to define sufficiently the reliability of SHW systems in order to answer the questions that the utilities pose. Several ideas are presented for collecting the required data, including photometric analysis of aerial photographs of installed collectors, statistical and neural network analysis of energy bills from solar homes, and the development of simple algorithms to allow conventional SHW controllers to announce system failures and record the details of the event, similar to how aircraft black box recorders perform. Some information is also presented about public expectations for the longevity of a SHW system, information that is useful in developing reliability goals.

  9. Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying-Zhi; Liu, Jin-Tong; Shen, Gui-Xiang; Long, Zhe; Sun, Shu-Guang

    2017-07-01

    In order to rectify the problems that the component reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evaluation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influenced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure probability function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following: 1) The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2) The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree of the system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

  10. [Study on the Reliability Assessment Method of Heavy Vehicle Gearbox Based on Spectrometric Analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Ke; Zhang, Zhong; Cao, Yuan-fu; Chen, Yi-jie

    2015-04-01

    Spectrometric oil analysis is of great importance for wear condition monitoring of gearbox. In this context, the contents of main elements compositions in the bench test of heavy vehicle gearbox are obtained by atomic emission spectrometric oil analysis first. Then correlation analysis of the test data and wearing mechanism analysis are carried out to get the metal element which could be used to describe the wearing and failure of the gearbox. The spectrometric data after filling/changing oil are corrected, and the laws of the contents of main elements compositions during tests are expressed as linear functions. After that, the reliability assessment is executed with considering the degradation law and discreteness of test data, in which the mean and standard deviation of normal distribution of spectrometric oil data at each time point are adopted. Finally, the influences of the threshold are discussed. It has been proved that the contents of metal element Cu, which is got by spectrometric oil analysis of different samples, could be used to assess the reliability of heavy vehicle gearbox. The reason is that the metal element Cu is closely related to the general wear state of gearbox, and is easy to be measured. When the threshold of Cu content is treated as a constant, bigger threshold means higher reliability at the same time, and the mean value of threshold has significant impact on the reliability assessment results as R > 0.9. When the threshold is treated as a random variable, bigger dispersion of threshold means smaller slope of reliability against time, and also means lower reliability of gearbox as R > 0.9 at the same time. In this study, the spectrometric oil analysis and probability statistics are used together for the reliability assessment of gear box, which extends the application range of spectrometric analysis.

  11. New Center Applies Cost-Benefit Analysis to Education Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viadero, Debra

    2008-01-01

    This article describes the Center for Benefit-Cost Studies of Education, at Teachers College, Columbia University. Launched last year by a pair of economists, the center specializes in calculating and comparing the long- and short-term costs--and probable payoffs--of different educational strategies that promise to improve students' lives. Studies…

  12. Analysis of enabling factors in realizing modularization benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Storbjerg, Simon Haahr; Brunø, Thomas Ditlev

    2012-01-01

    to theories and methods concerning modularization of technical systems.Recognizing the need for guidance to realize the benefits of modularity, the purpose of this study is through a literature study and a case study to improve the insight into the organizational and systems related enablers and barriers...

  13. Predicting travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peer, S.; Koopmans, C.; Verhoef, E.T.

    2010-01-01

    Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are not taken into account in many cost-benefit-analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules on how variability can be predicted, based on travel time data from Dutch highways.

  14. [Failure analysis of medical linear accelerator with reliability analyses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakimi, Ken; Watanabe, Hiroyuki; Ishida, Hideki; Take, Toshio; Kato, Mitsuyoshi; Iwai, Tsugunori; Nitta, Masaru; Kato, Kyouichi; Nakazawa, Yasuo

    2014-12-01

    We analyzed a number of cases about the Linac troubles in our hospital and have examined the effect of preventive maintenance with Weibull analysis and exponential distribution from April 2001 to March 2012. The total failure by irradiation disabled was 1, 192. (1) Medical linear accelerator (MLC) system was 24.0%, (2) radiation dosimetry system 13.1%, and the (3) cooling-water system was 26.5%. It accounts for 63.6% of the total number of failures. Each parameter value m, which means the shape parameter, and the failure period expectancy of parts μ were (1) 1.21, 1.46/3.9, 3.8 years. 3.7, 3.6 years. (2) 2.84, 1.59/6.6, 4.3 years. 6.7, 5.9 years. (3) 5.12, 4.16/6.1, 8.5 years. 6.1, 8.5 years. Each shape parameter was m>1. It is believed that they are in the worn-out failure period. To prevent failure, MLC performance should be overhauled once every 3 years and a cooling unit should be overhauled once every 7 years. Preventive maintenance is useful in assessing the failure of radiation therapy equipment. In a radiation dosimetry part, you can make a preemptive move before the failure by changing the monitor's dosimeter board with a new part from the repairs stockpiled every 6 months for maintenance.

  15. Analysis and Application of Mechanical System Reliability Model Based on Copula Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An Hai

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available There is complicated correlations in mechanical system. By using the advantages of copula function to solve the related issues, this paper proposes the mechanical system reliability model based on copula function. And makes a detailed research for the serial and parallel mechanical system model and gets their reliability function respectively. Finally, the application research is carried out for serial mechanical system reliability model to prove its validity by example. Using Copula theory to make mechanical system reliability modeling and its expectation, studying the distribution of the random variables (marginal distribution of the mechanical product’ life and associated structure of variables separately, can reduce the difficulty of multivariate probabilistic modeling and analysis to make the modeling and analysis process more clearly.

  16. Reliability Analysis for Adhesive Bonded Composite Stepped Lap Joints Loaded in Fatigue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Lund, Erik

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a probabilistic approach to calculate the reliability of adhesive bonded composite stepped lap joints loaded in fatigue using three- dimensional finite element analysis (FEA). A method for progressive damage modelling is used to assess fatigue damage accumulation and residual...... by the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. Finally, an approach for the assessment of the reliability of adhesive bonded composite stepped lap joints loaded in fatigue is presented. The introduced methodology can be applied in the same way to calculate the reliability level of wind turbine blade components...

  17. Analysis of performance reliability of electrical and electronic equipment of car-tractor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kravchenko О.Р.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the operational reliability of electrical and electronic equipment of vehicles, trucks Mercedes-Benz Actros 1844 LS and Volvo FH 1242, conducting international cargo transportation is performed. It is established that the equipment is reliable, which meets modern requirements, but where there is a violation of the resolution. The reason for repair work is constructive and operational factors. Distribution of efficiency and overall performance of operational reliability is retrieved. Items with more bounce are found. Common factors of violation of efficiency cars, trucks in operation, are largely different stages in warranty runs are obtained.

  18. Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Test-Retest Reliability of the Alcohol and Drug Confrontation Scale (ADCS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polcin, Douglas L; Galloway, Gantt P; Bond, Jason; Korcha, Rachael; Greenfield, Thomas K

    2009-09-01

    The addiction field lacks an accepted definition and reliable measure of confrontation. The Alcohol and Drug Confrontation Scale (ADCS) defines confrontation as warnings about the potential consequences of substance use. To assess psychometric properties, 323 individual entering recovery houses in U.S. urban and suburban areas were interviewed between 2003 and 2005 (20% women, 68% white). Analyses included test-retest reliability, confirmatory factor analysis, and measures of internal consistency. Findings support the ADCS as a reliable way of assessing two factors: Internal Support and External intensity. Confrontation was experienced as supportive, accurate and helpful. Additional studies should assess confrontation in different contexts.

  19. Comprehensive benefit analysis of regional water resources based on multi-objective evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Yixia; Xue, Lianqing; Zhang, Hui

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of the water resources comprehensive benefits analysis is to maximize the comprehensive benefits on the aspects of social, economic and ecological environment. Aiming at the defects of the traditional analytic hierarchy process in the evaluation of water resources, it proposed a comprehensive benefit evaluation of social, economic and environmental benefits index from the perspective of water resources comprehensive benefit in the social system, economic system and environmental system; determined the index weight by the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), calculated the relative index of water resources comprehensive benefit and analyzed the comprehensive benefit of water resources in Xiangshui County by the multi-objective evaluation model. Based on the water resources data in Xiangshui County, 20 main comprehensive benefit assessment factors of 5 districts belonged to Xiangshui County were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive benefit of Xiangshui County was 0.7317, meanwhile the social economy has a further development space in the current situation of water resources.

  20. Analysis of Quantitative and Qualitative Benefits Associated with the Implementation of Omnicell

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zeckler, George J

    2005-01-01

    .... The qualitative benefits that were measured included supply consumption tracking, reporting and analysis capabilities, medication management and patient safety, personnel time savings, and customer satisfaction...

  1. Analysis of data reliability and stability in HR-SDN communication module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Dong-Hee; Shin, Jin-Chul; Park, Hong-Seong

    2007-12-01

    Profibus is open industrial communication system for wide range of applications in manufacturing and process automation. In Profibus, FDL service use to need hard real-time system. In these systems required data reliability and stability and real-time feature. Profibus fieldbus networks used in many industrial fields because of it supports real-time industrial communication. So we analyze of data reliability and stabilization in profibus network. In this paper, there was to a station for communication which uses FDL from in the communication module which is used a data transfer possibility at once, and from communication period (ex. 10ms) it analyzed the system effect which it follows in transmission lag occurrence element and a data transfer error ratio it analyzed. Like this analytical result it led and there were from transmission for reliability and data stability they confirmed to HR-SDN communication modules and a guarantee yes or no. In this paper, we try to analysis of transmission delay ability for satisfaction data reliability and stability in specific system, which requested real-time feature. And, we analysis system reconstruction time and data delay time according to data/token packet loss. Packet-error occur physical layer in Profibus. As a result of above analysis, we propose method of enhancement of reliability in system which requested system reliability and stability. And, we confirm proposed method.

  2. THE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF EXISTING REINFORCED CONCRETE PILES IN PERMAFROST REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir S. Utkin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the general problem of safe operation of buildings and structures with the dynamics of permafrost in Russia and other countries. The global warming on Earth will lead to global disasters such as failures of buildings and structures. The main reason of these failures will be a reduction of bearing capacity and the reliability of foundations. It is necessary to organize the observations (monitoring for the process of reducing the bearing capacity of foundations to prevent such accidents and reduce negative consequences, to development of preventive measures and operational methods for the piles reliability analysis. The main load-bearing elements of the foundation are reinforced concrete piles and frozen ground. Reinforced concrete piles have a tendency to decrease the bearing capacity and reliability of the upper (aerial part and the part in the soil. The article discusses the problem of reliability analysis of existing reinforced concrete piles in upper part in permafrost regions by the reason of pile degradation in the contact zone of seasonal thawing and freezing soil. The evaluation of the probability of failure is important in itself, but also it important for the reliability of foundation: consisting of piles and frozen soil. Authors offers the methods for reliability analysis of upper part of reinforced concrete piles in the contact zone with seasonally thawed soil under different number of random variables (fuzzy variables in the design mathematical model of a limit state by the strength criterion.

  3. Asymptotic Sampling for Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Stepped Lap Composite Joints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Lund, Erik; Thomsen, Ole Thybo

    2013-01-01

    Reliability analysis coupled with finite element analysis (FEA) of composite structures is computationally very demanding and requires a large number of simulations to achieve an accurate prediction of the probability of failure with a small standard error. In this paper Asymptotic Sampling, which...... is a promising and time efficient tool to calculate the probability of failure, is utilized, and a probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded stepped lap composite joints, representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to static flapwise bending load, is presented....... Three dimensional (3D) FEA is used for the structural analysis together with a design equation that is associated with a deterministic code-based design equation where reliability is secured by partial safety factors. The Tsai-Wu and the maximum principal stress failure criteria are used to predict...

  4. Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharouni-Nik, Morteza; Naeimi, Meysam; Ahadi, Sodayf; Alimoradi, Zahra

    2014-06-01

    In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute to stability of the tunnel structure are recognized owing to identify various aspects of reliability and sustainability in the system. The selection of efficient support methods for rock tunneling is a key factor in order to reduce the number of problems during construction and maintain the project cost and time within the limited budget and planned schedule. This paper introduces a smart approach by which decision-makers will be able to find the overall reliability of tunnel support system before selecting the final scheme of the lining system. Due to this research focus, engineering reliability which is a branch of statistics and probability is being appropriately applied to the field and much effort has been made to use it in tunneling while investigating the reliability of the lining support system for the tunnel structure. Therefore, reliability analysis for evaluating the tunnel support performance is the main idea used in this research. Decomposition approaches are used for producing system block diagram and determining the failure probability of the whole system. Effectiveness of the proposed reliability model of tunnel lining together with the recommended approaches is examined using several case studies and the final value of reliability obtained for different designing scenarios. Considering the idea of linear correlation between safety factors and reliability parameters, the values of isolated reliabilities determined for different structural components of tunnel support system. In order to determine individual safety factors, finite element modeling is employed for different structural subsystems and the results of numerical analyses are obtained in

  5. Problems Related to Use of Some Terms in System Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadezda Hanusova

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with problems of using dependability terms, defined in actual standard STN IEC 50 (191: International electrotechnical dictionary, chap. 191: Dependability and quality of service (1993, in a technical systems dependability analysis. The goal of the paper is to find a relation between terms introduced in the mentioned standard and used in the technical systems dependability analysis and rules and practices used in a system analysis of the system theory. Description of a part of the system life cycle related to reliability is used as a starting point. The part of a system life cycle is described by the state diagram and reliability relevant therms are assigned.

  6. Feasibility and reliability of PRISMA-Medical for specialty-based incident analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, C.; van der Schaaf, T.; Klip, H.; van Lingen, R.A.; Fetter, W.P.F.; Molendijk, H.A.

    2009-01-01

    Aims and objectives: In this study, the feasibility and reliability of the Prevention Recovery Information System for Monitoring and Analysis (PRISMA)-Medical method for systematic, specialty-based analysis and classification of incidents in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) were determined.

  7. Feasibility and reliability of PRISMA-medical for specialty-based incident analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, C.; van der Schaaf, T. W.; Klip, H.; van Lingen W P F Fetter, R. A.; Molendijk, A.; Kok, J. H.; te Pas, E.; Pas, H.; van der Starre, C.; Bloemendaal, E.; Cardozo, Lopes; Molenaar, A. M.; van Lingen, R. A.; Maat, H. E.; Lavrijssen, S.; Mulder, A. L. M.; de Kleine, M. J. K.; Koolen, A. M. P.; Schellekens, M.; Verlaan, W.; Vrancken, S.; Fetter, W. P. F.; Schotman, L.; van der Zwaan, A.; van der Tuijn, Y.; Tibboel, D.

    2009-01-01

    AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: In this study, the feasibility and reliability of the Prevention Recovery Information System for Monitoring and Analysis (PRISMA)-Medical method for systematic, specialty-based analysis and classification of incidents in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) were determined.

  8. A Bidimensional System of Facial Movement Analysis Conception and Reliability in Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjolaine Baude

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To design a bidimensional facial movement measuring tool and study its reliability. Methods. We utilized the free video-analysis software Kinovea that can track preselected points during movements and measure two-point distances off-line. Three raters positioned facial markers on 10 healthy individuals and video-taped them during maximal bilateral contractions of frontalis, corrugator, orbicularis oculi, zygomaticus, orbicularis oris, and buccinator, on two occasions. Each rater also analyzed the first video twice, one week apart. For each muscle, intrarater reliability was measured by percent agreements (PA and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC between two assessments of the same video one week apart and between assessments of two videos collected one week apart. Interrater reliability was measured by PA, ICC, and coefficients of variation (CV between assessments of the first video-recording by the three raters. Results. Intrarater and interrater reliabilities were good to excellent for frontalis (PA and ICC > 70%; CV < 15%, moderate for orbicularis oculi, zygomaticus, and orbicularis oris, and poor for corrugator and buccinators. Discussion. Without formal prior training, the proposed method was reliable for frontalis in healthy subjects. Improved marker selection, training sessions, and testing reliability in patients with facial paresis may enhance reliability for orbicularis oculi, zygomaticus, and orbicularis oris.

  9. Analysis of Potential Benefits and Costs of Updating the Commercial Building Energy Code in North Dakota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cort, Katherine A.; Belzer, David B.; Winiarski, David W.; Richman, Eric E.

    2004-04-30

    The state of North Dakota is considering updating its commercial building energy code. This report evaluates the potential costs and benefits to North Dakota residents from updating and requiring compliance with ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2001. Both qualitative and quantitative benefits and costs are assessed in the analysis. Energy and economic impacts are estimated using the Building Loads Analysis and System Thermodynamics (BLAST simulation combined with a Life-cycle Cost (LCC) approach to assess correspodning economic costs and benefits.

  10. Estimating Reliability of Disturbances in Satellite Time Series Data Based on Statistical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Z.-G.; Tang, P.; Zhou, M.

    2016-06-01

    Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with "Change/ No change" by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level) of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1) Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST). (2) Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3) Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI) and Confidence Levels (CL). The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  11. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation is one of the best tools for performing realistic analysis of complex systems as it allows most of the limiting assumptions on system behavior to be relaxed. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis comprehensively illustrates the Monte Carlo simulation method and its application to reliability and system engineering. Readers are given a sound understanding of the fundamentals of Monte Carlo sampling and simulation and its application for realistic system modeling.   Whilst many of the topics rely on a high-level understanding of calculus, probability and statistics, simple academic examples will be provided in support to the explanation of the theoretical foundations to facilitate comprehension of the subject matter. Case studies will be introduced to provide the practical value of the most advanced techniques.   This detailed approach makes The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis a key reference for senior undergra...

  12. Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

  13. Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of Rock Slopes Using Numerical Analysis and Response Surface Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadashzadeh, N.; Duzgun, H. S. B.; Yesiloglu-Gultekin, N.

    2017-08-01

    While advanced numerical techniques in slope stability analysis are successfully used in deterministic studies, they have so far found limited use in probabilistic analyses due to their high computation cost. The first-order reliability method (FORM) is one of the most efficient probabilistic techniques to perform probabilistic stability analysis by considering the associated uncertainties in the analysis parameters. However, it is not possible to directly use FORM in numerical slope stability evaluations as it requires definition of a limit state performance function. In this study, an integrated methodology for probabilistic numerical modeling of rock slope stability is proposed. The methodology is based on response surface method, where FORM is used to develop an explicit performance function from the results of numerical simulations. The implementation of the proposed methodology is performed by considering a large potential rock wedge in Sumela Monastery, Turkey. The accuracy of the developed performance function to truly represent the limit state surface is evaluated by monitoring the slope behavior. The calculated probability of failure is compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The proposed methodology is found to be 72% more efficient than MCS, while the accuracy is decreased with an error of 24%.

  14. Assessing conceptions of cost-benefit analysis among road safety decision-makers : misunderstandings or disputes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veisten, K. Elvik, R. & Bax, C.

    2010-01-01

    Statements about economic cost—benefit analysis were assessed in a sample of European road safety decision-makers. These statements related to both principles of cost—benefit analysis and implications for applying the method to road safety projects. A procedure of information reference testing was

  15. Reliability analysis of production ships with emphasis on load combination and ultimate strength

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaozhi

    1995-05-01

    This thesis deals with ultimate strength and reliability analysis of offshore production ships, accounting for stochastic load combinations, using a typical North Sea production ship for reference. A review of methods for structural reliability analysis is presented. Probabilistic methods are established for the still water and vertical wave bending moments. Linear stress analysis of a midships transverse frame is carried out, four different finite element models are assessed. Upon verification of the general finite element code ABAQUS with a typical ship transverse girder example, for which test results are available, ultimate strength analysis of the reference transverse frame is made to obtain the ultimate load factors associated with the specified pressure loads in Det norske Veritas Classification rules for ships and rules for production vessels. Reliability analysis is performed to develop appropriate design criteria for the transverse structure. It is found that the transverse frame failure mode does not seem to contribute to the system collapse. Ultimate strength analysis of the longitudinally stiffened panels is performed, accounting for the combined biaxial and lateral loading. Reliability based design of the longitudinally stiffened bottom and deck panels is accomplished regarding the collapse mode under combined biaxial and lateral loads. 107 refs., 76 refs., 37 tabs.

  16. Reliability of 2 ultrasonic imaging analysis methods in quantifying lumbar multifidus thickness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Arnold Y L; Parent, Eric C; Kawchuk, Greg N

    2013-04-01

    Reliability study. To compare the within- and between-day intrarater reliability of rehabilitative ultrasound imaging (RUSI) using static images (static RUSI) and video clips (video RUSI) to quantify multifidus muscle thickness at rest and while contracted. Secondary objectives were to compare the measurement precision of averaging multiple measures and to estimate reliability in individuals with and without low back pain (LBP). Although intrarater reliability of static RUSI in measuring multifidus thickness has been established, using video RUSI may improve reliability estimates, as it allows examiners to select the optimal image from a video clip. Further, multiple measurements and LBP status may affect RUSI reliability estimates. Static RUSI and video RUSI were used to quantify multifidus muscle thickness at rest and during contraction and percent thickness change in 27 volunteers (13 without LBP and 14 with LBP). Three static RUSI images and 3 video RUSI video clips were collected in each of 2 sessions 1 to 4 days apart. Reliability and precision were assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients, standard error of measurement, minimal detectable change, bias, and 95% limits of agreement. Using an average of 2 measures yielded optimal measurement precision for static RUSI and video RUSI. Based on the average of 2 measures obtained under the same circumstance, there was no significant difference in the reliability estimates between static RUSI and video RUSI across all testing conditions. Reliability point estimates (intraclass correlation coefficient model 3,2) of multifidus thickness were 0.99 for within-day comparisons and ranged from 0.93 to 0.98 for between-day comparisons. The within- and between-day intraclass correlation coefficients (model 3,2) of percent thickness change ranged from 0.97 to 0.99 and from 0.80 to 0.90, respectively. The exploratory analysis showed no significant difference in the reliability estimates between asymptomatic and LBP

  17. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikabdullah, N. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); K, Elwaleed A. [Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Noorani, M. S. M. [School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  18. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  19. Markov chain modelling of reliability analysis and prediction under mixed mode loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Salvinder; Abdullah, Shahrum; Nik Mohamed, Nik Abdullah; Mohd Noorani, Mohd Salmi

    2015-03-01

    The reliability assessment for an automobile crankshaft provides an important understanding in dealing with the design life of the component in order to eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failure and safety risks. The failures of the crankshafts are considered as a catastrophic failure that leads towards a severe failure of the engine block and its other connecting subcomponents. The reliability of an automotive crankshaft under mixed mode loading using the Markov Chain Model is studied. The Markov Chain is modelled by using a two-state condition to represent the bending and torsion loads that would occur on the crankshaft. The automotive crankshaft represents a good case study of a component under mixed mode loading due to the rotating bending and torsion stresses. An estimation of the Weibull shape parameter is used to obtain the probability density function, cumulative distribution function, hazard and reliability rate functions, the bathtub curve and the mean time to failure. The various properties of the shape parameter is used to model the failure characteristic through the bathtub curve is shown. Likewise, an understanding of the patterns posed by the hazard rate onto the component can be used to improve the design and increase the life cycle based on the reliability and dependability of the component. The proposed reliability assessment provides an accurate, efficient, fast and cost effective reliability analysis in contrast to costly and lengthy experimental techniques.

  20. Aviation Fuel System Reliability and Fail-Safety Analysis. Promising Alternative Ways for Improving the Fuel System Reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. S. Shumilov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with design requirements for an aviation fuel system (AFS, AFS basic design requirements, reliability, and design precautions to avoid AFS failure. Compares the reliability and fail-safety of AFS and aircraft hydraulic system (AHS, considers the promising alternative ways to raise reliability of fuel systems, as well as elaborates recommendations to improve reliability of the pipeline system components and pipeline systems, in general, based on the selection of design solutions.It is extremely advisable to design the AFS and AHS in accordance with Aviation Regulations АП25 and Accident Prevention Guidelines, ICAO (International Civil Aviation Association, which will reduce risk of emergency situations, and in some cases even avoid heavy disasters.ATS and AHS designs should be based on the uniform principles to ensure the highest reliability and safety. However, currently, this principle is not enough kept, and AFS looses in reliability and fail-safety as compared with AHS. When there are the examined failures (single and their combinations the guidelines to ensure the AFS efficiency should be the same as those of norm-adopted in the Regulations АП25 for AHS. This will significantly increase reliability and fail-safety of the fuel systems and aircraft flights, in general, despite a slight increase in AFS mass.The proposed improvements through the use of components redundancy of the fuel system will greatly raise reliability of the fuel system of a passenger aircraft, which will, without serious consequences for the flight, withstand up to 2 failures, its reliability and fail-safety design will be similar to those of the AHS, however, above improvement measures will lead to a slightly increasing total mass of the fuel system.It is advisable to set a second pump on the engine in parallel with the first one. It will run in case the first one fails for some reasons. The second pump, like the first pump, can be driven from the

  1. Guidelines for reliability analysis of digital systems in PSA context. Phase 1 status report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Authen, S.; Larsson, J. (Risk Pilot AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Bjoerkman, K.; Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT, Helsingfors (Finland))

    2010-12-15

    Digital protection and control systems are appearing as upgrades in older nuclear power plants (NPPs) and are commonplace in new NPPs. To assess the risk of NPP operation and to determine the risk impact of digital system upgrades on NPPs, quantitative reliability models are needed for digital systems. Due to the many unique attributes of these systems, challenges exist in systems analysis, modeling and in data collection. Currently there is no consensus on reliability analysis approaches. Traditional methods have clearly limitations, but more dynamic approaches are still in trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The number of PSAs worldwide including reliability models of digital I and C systems are few. A comparison of Nordic experiences and a literature review on main international references have been performed in this pre-study project. The study shows a wide range of approaches, and also indicates that no state-of-the-art currently exists. The study shows areas where the different PSAs agree and gives the basis for development of a common taxonomy for reliability analysis of digital systems. It is still an open matter whether software reliability needs to be explicitly modelled in the PSA. The most important issue concerning software reliability is proper descriptions of the impact that software-based systems has on the dependence between the safety functions and the structure of accident sequences. In general the conventional fault tree approach seems to be sufficient for modelling reactor protection system kind of functions. The following focus areas have been identified for further activities: 1. Common taxonomy of hardware and software failure modes of digital components for common use 2. Guidelines regarding level of detail in system analysis and screening of components, failure modes and dependencies 3. Approach for modelling of CCF between components (including software). (Author)

  2. Software Reliability Analysis of NASA Space Flight Software: A Practical Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhwani, Harish; Alonso, Javier; Trivedi, Kishor S; Mcginnis, Issac

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present the software reliability analysis of the flight software of a recently launched space mission. For our analysis, we use the defect reports collected during the flight software development. We find that this software was developed in multiple releases, each release spanning across all software life-cycle phases. We also find that the software releases were developed and tested for four different hardware platforms, spanning from off-the-shelf or emulation hardware to actual flight hardware. For releases that exhibit reliability growth or decay, we fit Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGM); otherwise we fit a distribution function. We find that most releases exhibit reliability growth, with Log-Logistic (NHPP) and S-Shaped (NHPP) as the best-fit SRGMs. For the releases that experience reliability decay, we investigate the causes for the same. We find that such releases were the first software releases to be tested on a new hardware platform, and hence they encountered major hardware integration issues. Also such releases seem to have been developed under time pressure in order to start testing on the new hardware platform sooner. Such releases exhibit poor reliability growth, and hence exhibit high predicted failure rate. Other problems include hardware specification changes and delivery delays from vendors. Thus, our analysis provides critical insights and inputs to the management to improve the software development process. As NASA has moved towards a product line engineering for its flight software development, software for future space missions will be developed in a similar manner and hence the analysis results for this mission can be considered as a baseline for future flight software missions.

  3. Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazo-Langner Alejandro

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding and benefit (thrombosis averted were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance.

  4. Safety and business benefit analysis of NASA's aviation safety program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-09-20

    NASA Aviation Safety Program elements encompass a wide range of products that require both public and private investment. Therefore, two methods of analysis, one relating to the public and the other to the private industry, must be combined to unders...

  5. Potential demand and cost-benefit analysis of electric cars

    OpenAIRE

    Zito, Pietro; Salerno, Silvia

    2004-01-01

    In this study an analysis of electric family car performances is carried out. In particular, the aim of this research is to appraise the possibility of introducing electric cars in urban mobility and the evaluation of its economic feasibility. First of all, we determined the potential electric car demand, which was forecasted using a stated preference (SP) analysis. The survey was carried out at the University of Palermo considering a particular target of consumer: ‘the hybrid household’. A l...

  6. Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, Mark; Boyer, Roger; Cross, Bob; Hamlin, Teri; Roelant, Henk; Stewart, Mike; Bigler, Mark; Winter, Scott; Reistle, Bruce; Heydorn,Dick

    2009-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts

  7. Yield-reliability analysis and operating rules for run-of-river ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study focused on yield-reliability analysis and operating rules for optimum scheduling of run-of-river (ROR) abstractions for typical rural water supply schemes using Siloam Village, Limpopo Province, South Africa, as a case study. Efficient operation of water supply systems requires operating rules as decision support ...

  8. Reliability of ^1^H NMR analysis for assessment of lipid oxidation at frying temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    The reliability of a method using ^1^H NMR analysis for assessment of oil oxidation at a frying temperature was examined. During heating and frying at 180 °C, changes of soybean oil signals in the ^1^H NMR spectrum including olefinic (5.16-5.30 ppm), bisallylic (2.70-2.88 ppm), and allylic (1.94-2.1...

  9. Response and reliability analysis of nonlinear uncertain dynamical structures by the probability density evolution method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Peng, Yongbo; Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri

    2016-01-01

    The paper deals with the response and reliability analysis of hysteretic or geometric nonlinear uncertain dynamical systems of arbitrary dimensionality driven by stochastic processes. The approach is based on the probability density evolution method proposed by Li and Chen (Stochastic dynamics...

  10. Developments in Levee Reliability and Flood Risk Analysis in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Schweckendiek, T.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents and overview of advances in flood risk and levee reliability analysis in the Netherlands. It is described how new safety standards – in the form of a target failure probability – have been derived on the basis of nationwide flood risk assessments which taken into account both

  11. A continuous-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudali, H.; Dugan, J.B.

    We present a continuous-time Bayesian network (CTBN) framework for dynamic systems reliability modeling and analysis. Dynamic systems exhibit complex behaviors and interactions between their components; where not only the combination of failure events matters, but so does the sequence ordering of

  12. Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tol, R.S.J. [Centre for Marine and Climate Studies, Hamburg University, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg (Germany)

    2001-01-01

    The literature of welfare-maximising greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies pays remarkably little attention to equity. This paper introduces three ways to consider efficiency and equity simultaneously. The first method, inspired by Kant and Rawls, maximises net present welfare, without international cooperation, as if all regions share the fate of the region affected worst by climate change. Optimal emission abatement varies greatly depending on the spatial and temporal resolution, that is, the grid at which 'maximum impact' is defined. The second method is inspired by Varian's no-envy. Emissions are reduced so as to equalise total costs and benefits of climate change over all countries of the world and over all time periods. Emission reductions are substantial. This method approximately preserves the inequities that would occur in a world without climate change. The third method uses non-linear aggregations of welfare (the utilitarian default is linear) in a cooperative setting. This method cannot distinguish between sources of inequity. The higher the aversion to inequity, the higher optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction. 59 refs.

  13. Cost Benefits Analysis of Anthelmintic Treatment of Cattle and Buffaloes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laiq Ahmed Athar, Muhammad Nisar Khan*, Muhammad Sohail Sajid, Tauseef-ur-Rehman and Izhar Ahmad Khan1

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out to determine the point prevalence of various helminths of cattle and buffalo population of district Toba Tek Singh, Pakistan and economic benefits of deworming with oxyclozanide. Out of 540 fecal samples examined, 205 (37.96% were found infected with helminths. Significantly higher (OR=2.2; P<0.05 prevalence of helminths was recorded in buffaloes (40%; 112/280 as compared to cattle (35.77%; 93/260. Oesophagostomum, Cooperia, Trichostrongylus, Strongyloide, Ostertagia, Fasciola (F. hepatica, F. gigantica and Haemonchus contortus were the helminth species identified in the study area. Oxyclozanide medicated buffaloes (E=96.66% and cattle (E=95.64% showed a significant decrease in fecal egg counts on day 14 post-treatment. An average daily increase of 0.89 and 0.71 liters of milk along with 0.42 and 0.37% more fat per buffalo and cattle, respectively was observed in oxyclozanide medication. The economic value of reduced production of infected animals was estimated as US$ 0.47 (Pak Rupees 40 and US$ 0.41 (Pak Rupees 35 per animal per day for cattle and buffaloes, respectively. It can be concluded that single dose of oxyclozanide is effective against all bovine helminths.

  14. An Exploratory Factor Analysis and Reliability Analysis of the Student Online Learning Readiness (SOLR) Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Taeho; Richardson, Jennifer C.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an effective instrument to measure student readiness in online learning with reliable predictors of online learning success factors such as learning outcomes and learner satisfaction. The validity and reliability of the Student Online Learning Readiness (SOLR) instrument were tested using exploratory factor…

  15. Reliability of an Automated High-Resolution Manometry Analysis Program across Expert Users, Novice Users, and Speech-Language Pathologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Corinne A.; Hoffman, Matthew R.; Geng, Zhixian; Abdelhalim, Suzan M.; Jiang, Jack J.; McCulloch, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate inter- and intrarater reliability among expert users, novice users, and speech-language pathologists with a semiautomated high-resolution manometry analysis program. We hypothesized that all users would have high intrarater reliability and high interrater reliability. Method: Three expert…

  16. Solution-verified reliability analysis and design of bistable MEMS using error estimation and adaptivity.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eldred, Michael Scott; Subia, Samuel Ramirez; Neckels, David; Hopkins, Matthew Morgan; Notz, Patrick K.; Adams, Brian M.; Carnes, Brian; Wittwer, Jonathan W.; Bichon, Barron J.; Copps, Kevin D.

    2006-10-01

    This report documents the results for an FY06 ASC Algorithms Level 2 milestone combining error estimation and adaptivity, uncertainty quantification, and probabilistic design capabilities applied to the analysis and design of bistable MEMS. Through the use of error estimation and adaptive mesh refinement, solution verification can be performed in an automated and parameter-adaptive manner. The resulting uncertainty analysis and probabilistic design studies are shown to be more accurate, efficient, reliable, and convenient.

  17. Reliability associated with the Roter Interaction Analysis System (RIAS) adapted for the telemedicine context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Eve-Lynn; Miller, Edward Alan; Larson, Kiley A

    2010-01-01

    This study's purpose was to adapt the Roter Interaction Analysis System (RIAS) for telemedicine clinics and to investigate the adapted measure's reliability. The study also sought to better understand the volume of technology-related utterance in established telemedicine clinics and the feasibility of using the measure within the telemedicine setting. This initial evaluation is a first step before broadly using the adapted measure across technologies and raters. An expert panel adapted the RIAS for the telemedicine context. This involved accounting for all consultation participants (patient, provider, presenter, family) and adding technology-specific subcategories. Ten new and 36 follow-up telemedicine encounters were videotaped and double coded using the adapted RIAS. These consisted primarily of follow-up visits (78.0%) involving patients, providers, presenters, and other parties. Reliability was calculated for those categories with 15 or more utterances. Traditional RIAS categories related to socioemotional and task-focused clusters had fair to excellent levels of reliability in the telemedicine setting. Although there were too few utterances to calculate the reliability of the specific technology-related subcategories, the summary technology-related category proved reliable for patients, providers, and presenters. Overall patterns seen in traditional patient-provider interactions were observed, with the number of provider utterances far exceeding patient, presenter, and family utterances, and few technology-specific utterances. The traditional RIAS is reliable when applied across multiple participants in the telemedicine context. Reliability of technology-related subcategories could not be evaluated; however, the aggregate technology-related cluster was found to be reliable and may be especially relevant in understanding communication patterns with patients new to the telemedicine setting. Use of the RIAS instrument is encouraged to facilitate comparison

  18. The design and use of reliability data base with analysis tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doorepall, J.; Cooke, R.; Paulsen, J.; Hokstadt, P.

    1996-06-01

    With the advent of sophisticated computer tools, it is possible to give a distributed population of users direct access to reliability component operational histories. This allows the user a greater freedom in defining statistical populations of components and selecting failure modes. However, the reliability data analyst`s current analytical instrumentarium is not adequate for this purpose. The terminology used in organizing and gathering reliability data is standardized, and the statistical methods used in analyzing this data are not always suitably chosen. This report attempts to establish a baseline with regard to terminology and analysis methods, to support the use of a new analysis tool. It builds on results obtained in several projects for the ESTEC and SKI on the design of reliability databases. Starting with component socket time histories, we identify a sequence of questions which should be answered prior to the employment of analytical methods. These questions concern the homogeneity and stationarity of (possible dependent) competing failure modes and the independence of competing failure modes. Statistical tests, some of them new, are proposed for answering these questions. Attention is given to issues of non-identifiability of competing risk and clustering of failure-repair events. These ideas have been implemented in an analysis tool for grazing component socket time histories, and illustrative results are presented. The appendix provides background on statistical tests and competing failure modes. (au) 4 tabs., 17 ills., 61 refs.

  19. ANALYSIS OF VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENT BENEFIT IN E-LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NOVÁK, Martin

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the virtual environment assets towards the e-learning process improvements is mentioned in this article. The virtual environment was created within the solution of the project ‘Virtualization’ at the Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Pardubice. The aim of this project was to eliminate the disproportion of free access to licensed software between groups of part-time and full-time students. The research was realized within selected subjects of the study program System Engineering and Informatics. The subjects were connected to the informatics, applied informatics, control and decision making. Student subject results, student feedback based on electronic questionnaire and data from log file of virtual server usage were compared and analysed. Based on analysis of virtualization possibilities the solution of virtual environment was implemented through Microsoft Terminal Server.

  20. A cost-benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 Package

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2012-01-01

    The European Commission did not publish a cost-benefit analysis for its 2020 climate package. This paper fills that gap, comparing the marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction. The uncertainty about the marginal costs of climate change is large and skewed, and estimates

  1. A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Universal Preschool Education: Evidence from a Spanish Reform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Huizen, T.M.; Dumhs, E.; Plantenga, J.

    2016-01-01

    This study provides a cost-benefit analysis of expanding access to universal preschool education. We focus on a Spanish reform that lowered the age of eligibility for publicly provided universal preschool from age 4 to age 3. We extrapolate the benefits in terms of maternal employment and child

  2. 75 FR 78798 - Airport Improvement Program: Proposed Changes to Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) Threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-16

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Airport Improvement Program: Proposed Changes to Benefit Cost Analysis... requiring benefit cost analyses (BCA) for capacity projects when applying for Airport Improvement Program... Friday, except Federal holidays. Privacy: We will post all comments we receive, without change, to http...

  3. An Analysis of Benefit and Cost of Local Chicken Production By the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An Analysis of Benefit and Cost of Local Chicken Production By the Adopters and on– Adopters of ewcastle Disease Vaccination in Kogi – State, Nigeria. ... The cost benefit ratio of the adopters was 2.42:1 as against 1.11:1 of non adopters. Cost of transportation for pooling birds to a centre for vaccination was responsible for ...

  4. Photoneutron reaction cross sections from various experiments - analysis and evaluation using physical criteria of data reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlamov, Vladimir; Ishkhanov, Boris; Orlin, Vadim; Peskov, Nikolai; Stepanov, Mikhail

    2017-09-01

    The majority of photonuclear reaction cross sections important for many fields of science and technology and various data files (EXFOR, RIPL, ENDF, etc.) supported by the IAEA were obtained in experiments using quasimonoenergetic annihilation photons. There are well-known systematic discrepancies between the partial photoneutron reactions (γ, 1n), (γ, 2n), (γ, 3n). For analysis of the data reliability the objective physical criteria were proposed. It was found out that the experimental data for many nuclei are not reliable because of large systematic uncertainties of the neutron multiplicity sorting method used. The experimentally-theoretical method was proposed for evaluating the reaction cross sections data satisfying the reliability criteria. The partial and total reaction cross sections were evaluated for many nuclei. In many cases evaluated data differ noticeably from both the experimental data and the data evaluated before for the IAEA Photonuclear Data Library. Therefore it became evident that the IAEA Library needs to be revised and updated.

  5. Shaking up the Cost Benefit Analysis process: Issues and directions for improvement when assessing integrated spatial transport plans through a cost benefit analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beukers, E.

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation focusses on the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) processes when assessing integrated spatial transport plans, using the Netherlands as a case in point. It answers the following research question: What process issues occur when assessing integrated spatial transport plans through a CBA

  6. The analysis of reliability and validity of the IT-MAIS, MAIS and MUSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Yan; Xu, Tianqiu; Dong, Ruijuan; Lyu, Jing; Liu, Bo; Chen, Xueqing

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the reliability and validity of the Infant-toddler Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale (IT-MAIS), Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale (MAIS), and Meaningful Use of Speech Scale (MUSS). IT-MAIS, MAIS and MUSS were divided into 3 sub dimensions. 300 children with cochlear implants (CI) were included in the investigation. To assess test-retest reliability of these questionnaires, 30 children were selected randomly to be evaluated at a two-week interval indicated that there were no significant changes between test and retest. Furthermore random test analysis by different evaluators was also administered to 30 users. Reliability test: Test-retest reliability of the three scales was proved to be satisfactory. All domains had correlation coefficients that exceeded 0.750(P MAIS, MAIS, MUSS scales have good reliability and validity, and can be used to measure the outcome for children with cochlear implants hearing and speech evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Statistical Degradation Models for Reliability Analysis in Non-Destructive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetvertakova, E. S.; Chimitova, E. V.

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we consider the application of the statistical degradation models for reliability analysis in non-destructive testing. Such models enable to estimate the reliability function (the dependence of non-failure probability on time) for the fixed critical level using the information of the degradation paths of tested items. The most widely used models are the gamma and Wiener degradation models, in which the gamma or normal distributions are assumed as the distribution of degradation increments, respectively. Using the computer simulation technique, we have analysed the accuracy of the reliability estimates, obtained for considered models. The number of increments can be enlarged by increasing the sample size (the number of tested items) or by increasing the frequency of measuring degradation. It has been shown, that the sample size has a greater influence on the accuracy of the reliability estimates in comparison with the measuring frequency. Moreover, it has been shown that another important factor, influencing the accuracy of reliability estimation, is the duration of observing degradation process.

  8. A Report on Simulation-Driven Reliability and Failure Analysis of Large-Scale Storage Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Lipeng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wang, Feiyi [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Oral, H. Sarp [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Vazhkudai, Sudharshan S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cao, Qing [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2014-11-01

    High-performance computing (HPC) storage systems provide data availability and reliability using various hardware and software fault tolerance techniques. Usually, reliability and availability are calculated at the subsystem or component level using limited metrics such as, mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time to data loss (MTTDL). This often means settling on simple and disconnected failure models (such as exponential failure rate) to achieve tractable and close-formed solutions. However, such models have been shown to be insufficient in assessing end-to-end storage system reliability and availability. We propose a generic simulation framework aimed at analyzing the reliability and availability of storage systems at scale, and investigating what-if scenarios. The framework is designed for an end-to-end storage system, accommodating the various components and subsystems, their interconnections, failure patterns and propagation, and performs dependency analysis to capture a wide-range of failure cases. We evaluate the framework against a large-scale storage system that is in production and analyze its failure projections toward and beyond the end of lifecycle. We also examine the potential operational impact by studying how different types of components affect the overall system reliability and availability, and present the preliminary results

  9. [Analysis on reliability and validity of SF-36 scale in urban residents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shan; Fan, Wenjie; Yu, Wanqi; Li, Jian; Xu, Dange; Cao, Hongyan; Xi, Ying; Li, Xiuyang

    2016-03-01

    To evaluate the reliability and validity of SF-36 scale in urban residents, and provide reference for the selection of suitable health measure tools for urban residents. Multi-stage cluster stratified sampling was conducted to select the residents aged ≥18 years in three urbanized communities of Hangzhou. SF-36 scale was used for the measurement of the quality of life and Spearman-Brown and Cronbach' s α coefficients were used for the evaluation of split-half reliability and internal consistency reliability. The convergent and discriminative validity were evaluated by using the success rate of experiments and the criterion-related validity was evaluated with correlation analysis and non-parameter test. Structural equation modeling was used in the evaluation of contract validity. SF-36 scale had good split-half reliability (R=0.94) and internal-consistency reliability (except for bodily pain and vitality, Cronbach's α range: 0.70-0.91). The convergent validity (88.57%), discriminate validity (successful rates 90.61%) and the criterion-related validity (γs=0.56, the score was consistent with the self-reported health status) were good. Second-order confirmatory factor analysis model was not well-fitted (GFI= 0.721, AGFI= 0.682, CFI= 0.731, RMR= 0.084, RMSEA= 0.098), indicating that the construct validity was poor. The reliability, consolidation validity, discrimination validity and criterion-related validity of SF-36 scale were good, while the construct validity was poor. Improvement is needed when the scale is used for urban residents.

  10. Real Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Needed in American Public Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bert D. Stoneberg

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Public school critics often point to rising expenditures and relatively flat test scores to justify their school reform agendas. The claims are flawed because their analyses fail to account for the difference in data types between dollars (ratio and test scores (interval. A cost-benefit analysis using dollars as a common metric for both costs and benefits can provide a good estimate of their relationship. It also acknowledges that costs and benefits are both subject to inflation. The National Center for Education Research administers a methods training program for researchers who want to know more about cost-benefit analyses on education policies and programs.

  11. Cost Benefit and Alternatives Analysis of Distribution Systems with Energy Storage Systems: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, Tom; Nagarajan, Adarsh; Baggu, Murali; Bialek, Tom

    2017-06-27

    This paper explores monetized and non-monetized benefits from storage interconnected to distribution system through use cases illustrating potential applications for energy storage in California's electric utility system. This work supports SDG&E in its efforts to quantify, summarize, and compare the cost and benefit streams related to implementation and operation of energy storage on its distribution feeders. This effort develops the cost benefit and alternatives analysis platform, integrated with QSTS feeder simulation capability, and analyzed use cases to explore the cost-benefit of implementation and operation of energy storage for feeder support and market participation.

  12. Intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities of real-time acceleration gait analysis system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osaka, Hiroshi; Shinkoda, Koichi; Watanabe, Susumu; Fujita, Daisuke; Kobara, Kenichi; Yoshimura, Yosuke; Ito, Tomotaka

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to construct a real-time acceleration gait analysis system equipped with software to analyse real-time trunk acceleration during walking and to examine the intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities of the this system. This system has been comprised of an accelerometer, an acceleration amplifier, a transmitter, two foot switches, a receiver and a personal computer installed with the real-time acceleration analysis software. The acceleration signals received were analysed using the real-time acceleration analysis software, and gait parameters were calculated. The subjects were 20 healthy individuals and two raters. The intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities of the measurement results obtained from this system were examined by performing intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and Bland-Altman analysis. The intra-rater and inter-rater ICCs ranged from 0.61 to 0.92 in any gait parameters. In the Bland-Altman analysis, neither fixed nor proportional bias was found in any of the gait parameters. From the ICC and Bland-Altman analysis results, the gait measurement using this system clearly demonstrates that the intra-rater and inter-rater measurements had good reproducibility. Owing to this system, we can improve the clinical efficiency of gait analysis and gait training for physiotherapy. Implication for Rehabilitation This study focused on the advantage of a gait analysis method using an accelerometer and constructed a gait analysis system that calculates real-time gait parameters from trunk acceleration measurements during walking. The gait analysis using this system has good intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities, and using this system can improve the clinical efficiency of gait analysis and gait training.

  13. Multi-dimensional project evaluation: Combining cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria analysis with the COSIMA software system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper proposes a methodology that integrates quantitative and qualitative assessment. The methodology proposed combines conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The CBA methodology, based on welfare theory, assures that the project with the highest welfare...... different methods for combining cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria analysis are examined and compared and a software system is presented. The software system gives the decision makers some possibilities regarding preference analysis, sensitivity and risk analysis. The aim of the software...... for society is ranked uppermost. To compare the different impacts, it is necessary to have a common monetary unit. Theoretically, all benefits and all costs should be accounted for in socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. However, this is far from in practical the general case due to difficulties...

  14. Cost benefit analysis on different configurations of berthing structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajesh, G.; Saravanan, R.; Ravichandran, Vijaya; Parameswara Pandian, S.; Ramani Sujatha, Evangelin

    2017-07-01

    Port and harbors are essential for handling of the imports/exports of good transported through shipping. This paper discusses the different configuration of berthing structure, their design with respect to the site conditions and suitability. The analysis includes detailed load calculations conforming to the various codal provisions and design of the structure. The configuration of berthing structure considered are analyzed and designed using STAAD Pro for different combination of loads as per IS 4651. Bill of Quantities are prepared and final cost of construction is calculated. Factors affecting the construction and maintenance such as land availability, soil conditions, hydrodynamics of the site, dredging requirements, design ship size etc. are considered to finalize the configuration of the berthing structure. Result of the study shows that Diaphragm wall type of berthing structure is economic for Ennore port.

  15. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Radiation Therapy Services at Tripler Army Medical Center

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Diehl, Diane S

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to examine the costs and benefits associated with continuance of "in-house" radiation therapy services to eligible beneficiaries at Tripler Army Medical Center (TAMC...

  16. Benefit Analysis Report, United States Air Force Technical Order Management Systems (AFTOMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-08-01

    This report prepared by the Transportation Systems Center (TSC) concludes an analysis of the Technical Order (TO) costs and benefits, which was originally undertaken as part of the US Air Force Computer-aided Acquisition and Logistics Support (CALS) ...

  17. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation - San Diego benefit-cost analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) for the United States : Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the San Diego Integrated Corridor Management : (ICM) Initiative Demonstration. The ICM pro...

  18. School-based health centers: cost-benefit analysis and impact on health care disparities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Guo, Jeff J; Wade, Terrance J; Pan, Wei; Keller, Kathryn N

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the impact of school-based health centers-which provide essential health care for students by aiming to eliminate many access barriers-on health care access disparities and conducted a cost-benefit analysis...

  19. The social benefits of WEEE re-use schemes. A cost benefit analysis for PCs in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Xose Manuel; Rodríguez, Miguel; Pena-Boquete, Yolanda

    2017-06-01

    One goal of the new European legislation set out in WEEE Directive 2012/19/UE is the promotion of WEEE re-use schemes. However, some authors are rather sceptical about the contribution of WEEE re-use schemes to improve resource efficiency. In order to evaluate and to design adequate policy instruments, some authors recommend the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a compulsory first step. In this context, the main contribution of this paper is to enlarge the empirical literature by providing a CBA of re-use schemes versus recycling processes of PCs. The analysis is made for Spain by quantifying in monetary terms the social damages of environmental impacts such as climate change, human toxicity, particulate matter formation, metal depletion, etc. Our results suggest that promoting re-use against recycling (and consequently the need for manufacturing a new PC from raw materials) may reduce environmental costs by 45.20€ per PC. Those social benefits are mainly generated in the re-use preparation process and distribution activities, whereas the re-use scenario displays a worse performance in energy consumption. The difference in the distribution stage during the second life cycle originates from the fact that the ready to re-use product is produced locally, while the brand new product is manufactured and distributed from abroad, mainly Asia. These results provide valuable information to policymakers and think tanks willing to design support schemes for re-use over recycling operations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Space Shuttle Rudder Speed Brake Actuator-A Case Study Probabilistic Fatigue Life and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oswald, Fred B.; Savage, Michael; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Space Shuttle fleet was originally intended to have a life of 100 flights for each vehicle, lasting over a 10-year period, with minimal scheduled maintenance or inspection. The first space shuttle flight was that of the Space Shuttle Columbia (OV-102), launched April 12, 1981. The disaster that destroyed Columbia occurred on its 28th flight, February 1, 2003, nearly 22 years after its first launch. In order to minimize risk of losing another Space Shuttle, a probabilistic life and reliability analysis was conducted for the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuators to determine the number of flights the actuators could sustain. A life and reliability assessment of the actuator gears was performed in two stages: a contact stress fatigue model and a gear tooth bending fatigue model. For the contact stress analysis, the Lundberg-Palmgren bearing life theory was expanded to include gear-surface pitting for the actuator as a system. The mission spectrum of the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuator was combined into equivalent effective hinge moment loads including an actuator input preload for the contact stress fatigue and tooth bending fatigue models. Gear system reliabilities are reported for both models and their combination. Reliability of the actuator bearings was analyzed separately, based on data provided by the actuator manufacturer. As a result of the analysis, the reliability of one half of a single actuator was calculated to be 98.6 percent for 12 flights. Accordingly, each actuator was subsequently limited to 12 flights before removal from service in the Space Shuttle.

  1. Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Scientific Versus Traditional Shrimp Farming: A Case Study from India

    OpenAIRE

    Bhattacharya, Poulomi; Ninan, K.N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper attempts a social cost-benefit analysis of scientific versus traditional shrimp farming in West Bengal, India. Using primary data, the paper shows that although intensive or scientific shrimp farming yields high returns as compared to traditional shrimp farming, when the opportunity costs and environmental costs of shrimp farming including disease risk are accounted for, scientific shrimp farming loses its advantage. In fact sensitivity analysis shows that if expected benefits were...

  2. Cost benefit analysis of policy measures in the transport sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buus Kristensen, N. [COWI (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    The Government has introduced a national target for the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions from the transport sector, which aims to stabilize emissions at the 1988 level, by the year 2005. This target was first formalized in the Government`s 1990 transport action plan, and later repeated in `Traffic 2005`, published in December 1993. The latter document also makes reference to six strategies, which the Government proposed in order to attain the national target. The majority of the transport policy measures will impact on CO{sub 2} emissions from the sector, even if they are targeted at different objectives, e.g. road safety, air pollution, time savings, etc. A long-list of potential measures, which might be adopted with the primary purpose is to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions, has been identified from the six overall strategies. The measures identified have been subjected to detailed analyses, to ascertain all the potential impacts. The main emphasis has been on clarifying the potential efficacy of each of the measures in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions, and the social costs in a wide sense. The analysis assumes that each policy measure is implemented separately. A methodology is developed that presents the respective consequences in commensurate terms. Similar calculations are undertaken for two different combinations of policy measures. (EG)

  3. Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Department of the Navy’s Transition from C-9 Aircraft to C-40 Aircraft for Logistic Support Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    reliability. It provides airlines with greater route-scheduling flexibility by including longer over-water flights . Without an ETOPS rating, an aircraft...with only two engines must be able to get to an airport where it can safely land within 60 minutes if an engine fails in- flight . ETOPS extends this...data collection of operational costs per flight hour, and total costs over the life of the program. Our cost-benefit analysis is intended to

  4. Reliability Analysis of Brittle Material Structures - Including MEMS(?) - With the CARES/Life Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials are being used, or considered, for a wide variety of high tech applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts. thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and MEMS. Designing components to sustain repeated load without fracturing while using the minimum amount of material requires the use of a probabilistic design methodology. The CARES/Life code provides a general-purpose analysis tool that predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. For this presentation an interview of the CARES/Life program will be provided. Emphasis will be placed on describing the latest enhancements to the code for reliability analysis with time varying loads and temperatures (fully transient reliability analysis). Also, early efforts in investigating the validity of using Weibull statistics, the basis of the CARES/Life program, to characterize the strength of MEMS structures will be described as as well as the version of CARES/Life for MEMS (CARES/MEMS) being prepared which incorporates single crystal and edge flaw reliability analysis capability. It is hoped this talk will open a dialog for potential collaboration in the area of MEMS testing and life prediction.

  5. Constellation Ground Systems Launch Availability Analysis: Enhancing Highly Reliable Launch Systems Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gernand, Jeffrey L.; Gillespie, Amanda M.; Monaghan, Mark W.; Cummings, Nicholas H.

    2010-01-01

    Success of the Constellation Program's lunar architecture requires successfully launching two vehicles, Ares I/Orion and Ares V/Altair, in a very limited time period. The reliability and maintainability of flight vehicles and ground systems must deliver a high probability of successfully launching the second vehicle in order to avoid wasting the on-orbit asset launched by the first vehicle. The Ground Operations Project determined which ground subsystems had the potential to affect the probability of the second launch and allocated quantitative availability requirements to these subsystems. The Ground Operations Project also developed a methodology to estimate subsystem reliability, availability and maintainability to ensure that ground subsystems complied with allocated launch availability and maintainability requirements. The verification analysis developed quantitative estimates of subsystem availability based on design documentation; testing results, and other information. Where appropriate, actual performance history was used for legacy subsystems or comparative components that will support Constellation. The results of the verification analysis will be used to verify compliance with requirements and to highlight design or performance shortcomings for further decision-making. This case study will discuss the subsystem requirements allocation process, describe the ground systems methodology for completing quantitative reliability, availability and maintainability analysis, and present findings and observation based on analysis leading to the Ground Systems Preliminary Design Review milestone.

  6. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BIDDERS AND THEIR TENDER OFFERS CONCERNING EXECUTION OF CONSTRUCTION WORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galkina Elena Vladislavovna

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article the reliability analysis methods of bidders and their tenders offers for implementation of construction works are offered. The special attention is focused on the complexity of these processes and the necessity of participation of serious, professional and responsible executors. Application of the described methods leads to a conclusion on the decrease of risks related to selection of a participant of a construction pro-ject. In the article the main stages of the implementation procedure are defined. That allows considering the economic state of applicants, and both economic and technical indicators of tender offers’ reliability. The main characteristics to be considered on each stage are revealed. The author makes a conclusion that the reliability of bidders is determined by the comparison of their economic states with the capacities for implementation of the orders with the specified characteristics. According to the terminology of the article, the reliability of applicant’s of-fers is the ability to execute orders on the bidder’s own conditions. In addition the author states that determining the reliability is based on the comparison of tender offers and contender’s characteristics of objects. The rational methods to compare economic indicators are offered. Along with this, it was found out that at the current moment the method of comparing the technical indicators for the projects-analogues with the indicators of a bidder’s object is not formalized. It limits the application of this method. Finally, it was concluded that the development of the methods applied to technical indicators provided a coherent system for evaluating the reliability of the construction bidders and their offers. It allows creating the basis for the development of appropriate automated system that can be used both for selection of competitive organizations and for preparation of offers by the applicants.

  7. Using the Kaldor-Hicks Tableau Format for Cost-Benefit Analysis and Policy Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krutilla, Kerry

    2005-01-01

    This note describes the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) tableau format as a framework for distributional accounting in cost-benefit analysis and policy evaluation. The KH tableau format can serve as a heuristic aid for teaching microeconomics-based policy analysis, and offer insight to policy analysts and decisionmakers beyond conventional efficiency analysis.

  8. Reliability Analysis of the Chatter Stability during Milling Using a Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Hu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The parameters of a system have the randomness generally in the process of milling, which influences the stability of the milling. This paper uses the neural network to get a comprehensive analysis of the influences of random factors in milling and proposes a method for reliability analysis of the regenerative chatter stability in milling. Dynamic model of milling regenerative chatter is established, and stability lobe diagram is obtained by the full-discretization method (FDM. The neural network is applied to approximate the functional relationship of the limit axial cutting depth; then the reliability is computed with the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM and the moment method (MM, respectively. Finally, the results of an example are used to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

  9. Reliability analysis of a hydraulic on/off fast switching valve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bender, Niels Christian; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; Plöckinger, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of a hydraulic on/off valve from a reliability point of view. The objective is to clarify the potential pitfalls of the current valve design, while identifying the component(s) exerting the most significant risk of failure during the lifetime of the valve. Specific......This paper presents an analysis of a hydraulic on/off valve from a reliability point of view. The objective is to clarify the potential pitfalls of the current valve design, while identifying the component(s) exerting the most significant risk of failure during the lifetime of the valve....... Specifically, the mechanical topology of Fast Switching hydraulic Valves (FSVs) are of interest since these undergo operating cycles in the gigacycle regime in theirs functional lifetime. Application of these FSVs is relevant in e.g. digital displacement units, which for the specific design considered...

  10. Architecture for Interlock Systems Reliability Analysis with Regard to Safety and Availability

    CERN Document Server

    Wagner, S; Schmidt, R; Zerlauth, M; Vergara-Fernandez, A

    2011-01-01

    In the design of interlock loops for the signal exchange in machine protection systems, the choice of the hardware architecture impacts on machine safety and availability. The reliable performance of a machine stop (leaving the machine in a safe state) in case of an emergency, is an inherent requirement. The constraints in terms of machine availability on the other hand may differ from one facility to another. Spurious machine stops, lowering machine availability, may to a certain extent be tolerated in facilities where they do not cause undue equipment wearout. In order to compare various interlock loop architectures in terms of safety and availability, the occurrence frequencies of related scenarios have been calculated in a reliability analysis, using a generic analytical model. This paper presents the results and illustrates the potential of the analysis method for supporting the choice of interlock system architectures.

  11. Reliability Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization of Composite Structures Based on Response Surface Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rais-Rohani, Masoud

    2003-01-01

    This report discusses the development and application of two alternative strategies in the form of global and sequential local response surface (RS) techniques for the solution of reliability-based optimization (RBO) problems. The problem of a thin-walled composite circular cylinder under axial buckling instability is used as a demonstrative example. In this case, the global technique uses a single second-order RS model to estimate the axial buckling load over the entire feasible design space (FDS) whereas the local technique uses multiple first-order RS models with each applied to a small subregion of FDS. Alternative methods for the calculation of unknown coefficients in each RS model are explored prior to the solution of the optimization problem. The example RBO problem is formulated as a function of 23 uncorrelated random variables that include material properties, thickness and orientation angle of each ply, cylinder diameter and length, as well as the applied load. The mean values of the 8 ply thicknesses are treated as independent design variables. While the coefficients of variation of all random variables are held fixed, the standard deviations of ply thicknesses can vary during the optimization process as a result of changes in the design variables. The structural reliability analysis is based on the first-order reliability method with reliability index treated as the design constraint. In addition to the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of reliability index, the results of the RBO problem are presented for different combinations of cylinder length and diameter and laminate ply patterns. The two strategies are found to produce similar results in terms of accuracy with the sequential local RS technique having a considerably better computational efficiency.

  12. A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heeter, Jenny [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Macknick, Jordan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Millstein, Dev [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This report evaluates the future costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy used to meet current state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). It also examines a future scenario where RPSs are expanded. The analysis examines changes in electric system costs and retail electricity prices, which include all fixed and operating costs, including capital costs for all renewable, non-renewable, and supporting (e.g., transmission and storage) electric sector infrastructure; fossil fuel, uranium, and biomass fuel costs; and plant operations and maintenance expenditures. The analysis evaluates three specific benefits: air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and water use. It also analyzes two other impacts, renewable energy workforce and economic development, and natural gas price suppression. This analysis finds that the benefits or renewable energy used to meet RPS polices exceed the costs, even when considering the highest cost and lowest benefit outcomes.

  13. Structured Analysis: Review of ILS Element E13 Reliability, Availability and Maintainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-03-01

    FUNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT TASK WORK UNIT ELEMENT NO. INO. INO. ACCESSION NO. 1TLTALE•asecan thClsifatin) eStructured Analysis for the Logistic...REQUIR1MENTS IN REQOOREVENTS DOCUMENTS THAT RELEATE DIRECTLY TO OPERATING AND SUPPORT COSTS RAN PARAMETERS APPR•P, IATE FOR CONTRACTING PURPOSES AND STATED AS...RELIABILITY MENTS PARAXMETERS TO QUANTIFY READINESS, MAINTENANCE ACTIONC AND THE COST OR QUANTITY OF PARTS AND DEMAND FOR MAINTENANCE RESOURCES. El3.2A2B2

  14. Accuracy and reliability of a videogrammetry system in the analysis of displacement of Wistar rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Tadeu da Silva Junior

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aims The behavior of laboratory animals has been studied through displacement, with different objectives by researchers. Methods Although different methods have already been used in the tracking of laboratory animals, manual tracking mode videogrammetry for 2D analysis of displacement has not been observed in animal studies. The aim of this study was to verify the accuracy and reliability of determining the displacement of Wistar rats by means of videogrammetry software Dvideo. The accuracy (between the known distance and distance traced was determined by 3 different evaluators twice consecutive, by videoing a course of 10 meters in the enriched environment together with further analysis of the displacement of the midpoint marked on an apparatus. To calculate reliability (accuracy of the measurement system and reproducibility (precision of the evaluators to obtain the ratio of precision to tolerance (P/T, eight animals were filmed for 10 minutes in the enriched environment and analysis of distance covered by one of the animals by three different reviewers thrice consecutive. Results The results obtained in the course of 10 meters of the known distance demonstrated accuracy of 0.10 m, precision of 0.05 m, and bias of 0.07 m. In the reliability test during the 10 minutes of displacement (m of animal, the ratio of precision to tolerance (P/T = 0.1 m was found between three different evaluators, demonstrating adequate capacity of the measure. Conclusion The manual tracking mode of the Dvideo presented high reliability and it can be employed for the displacement analysis of studies with rat experimental models.

  15. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BIDDERS AND THEIR TENDER OFFERS CONCERNING EXECUTION OF CONSTRUCTION WORKS

    OpenAIRE

    Galkina Elena Vladislavovna

    2016-01-01

    In the article the reliability analysis methods of bidders and their tenders offers for implementation of construction works are offered. The special attention is focused on the complexity of these processes and the necessity of participation of serious, professional and responsible executors. Application of the described methods leads to a conclusion on the decrease of risks related to selection of a participant of a construction pro-ject. In the article the main stages of the implementation...

  16. Storage Reliability of Missile Materiel Program. Missile Hydraulic and Pneumatic Systems Actuator Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-05-01

    RELIABILITY OF / MISSILE MATERIEL PROGRANI MISSILE gYDRAULIC AND NEUMATIC SYSTEMS ACTUATOR ANALYSIS .. 7 ." Joe C. Mitchell Approved by: Donald R. Earles...amplifier. 3-5 - M77777,77-7WT7 SECTION 4 ACTUATOR CLASSIFICATION Actuators have been classified in accordance with the mechanism and type. Figure 4-1...definition of the data already on hdrnd. More detailed identification of those units classified only by their generic names should be attempted. A more

  17. Effect of wine dilution on the reliability of tannin analysis by protein precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Skibsted; Werge, Hans Henrik Malmborg; Egebo, Max

    2008-01-01

    A reported analytical method for tannin quantification relies on selective precipitation of tannins with bovine serum albumin. The reliability of tannin analysis by protein precipitation on wines having variable tannin levels was evaluated by measuring the tannin concentration of various dilutions...... of five commercial red wines. Tannin concentrations of both very diluted and concentrated samples were systematically underestimated, which could be explained by a precipitation threshold and insufficient protein for precipitation, respectively. Based on these findings, we have defined a valid range...

  18. Benefit-cost analysis of addiction treatment: methodological guidelines and empirical application using the DATCAP and ASI

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    French, Michael T; Salomé, Helena J; Sindelar, Jody L; McLellan, A Thomas

    2002-01-01

    ...) and Addiction Severity Index (ASI) in a benefit-cost analysis of addiction treatment. A representative benefit-cost analysis of three outpatient programs was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and value of the methodological guidelines...

  19. Time-dependent Reliability Analysis of Flood Defence Assets Using Generic Fragility Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nepal Jaya

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood defence assets such as earth embankments comprise the vital part of linear flood defences in many countries including the UK and protect inland from flooding. The risks of flooding are likely to increase in the future due to increasing pressure on land use, increasing rainfall events and rising sea level caused by climate change also affect aging flood defence assets. Therefore, it is important that the flood defence assets are maintained at a high level of safety and serviceability. The high costs associated with preserving these deteriorating flood defence assets and the limited funds available for their maintenance require the development of systematic approaches to ensure the sustainable flood-risk management system. The integration of realistic deterioration measurement and reliabilitybased performance assessment techniques has tremendous potential for structural safety and economic feasibility of flood defence assets. Therefore, the need for reliability-based performance assessment is evident. However, investigations on time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defence assets are limited. This paper presents a novel approach for time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defence assets. In the analysis, time-dependent fragility curve is developed by using the state-based stochastic deterioration model. The applicability of the proposed approach is then demonstrated with a case study.

  20. Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baoyu LI

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis, and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain. However, efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved. The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation, whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs. While in fact, structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering, thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method, and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT technique to compute the fractional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations, which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs. The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations. Besides, the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis, which is determined by UT, is really small. Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.

  1. An analysis of the benefits of ethnography design methods for product modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butlewski, M.; Misztal, A.; Belu, N.

    2016-08-01

    application of ethnography design methodology in product design and to analyse the benefits of its use. The analysis is based on effects of its application with the support of product design from various industries, along with a discussion of the method's limitations. Among benefits of ethnography design, the greatest proved to be providing knowledge of nonspecific user behaviour previously unknown to designers, which when rendered by models allowed to develop innovative solutions.

  2. Development of Markov model of emergency diesel generator for dynamic reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Young Ho; Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    1999-02-01

    The EDG (Emergency Diesal Generator) of nuclear power plant is one of the most important equipments in mitigating accidents. The FT (Fault Tree) method is widely used to assess the reliability of safety systems like an EDG in nuclear power plant. This method, however, has limitations in modeling dynamic features of safety systems exactly. We, hence, have developed a Markov model to represent the stochastic process of dynamic systems whose states change as time moves on. The Markov model enables us to develop a dynamic reliability model of EDG. This model can represent all possible states of EDG comparing to the FRANTIC code developed by U.S. NRC for the reliability analysis of standby systems. to access the regulation policy for test interval, we performed two simulations based on the generic data and plant specific data of YGN 3, respectively by using the developed model. We also estimate the effects of various repair rates and the fractions of starting failures by demand shock to the reliability of EDG. And finally, Aging effect is analyzed. (author). 23 refs., 19 figs., 9 tabs.

  3. Reliability analysis of the objective structured clinical examination using generalizability theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trejo-Mejía, Juan Andrés; Sánchez-Mendiola, Melchor; Méndez-Ramírez, Ignacio; Martínez-González, Adrián

    2016-01-01

    The objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) is a widely used method for assessing clinical competence in health sciences education. Studies using this method have shown evidence of validity and reliability. There are no published studies of OSCE reliability measurement with generalizability theory (G-theory) in Latin America. The aims of this study were to assess the reliability of an OSCE in medical students using G-theory and explore its usefulness for quality improvement. An observational cross-sectional study was conducted at National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) Faculty of Medicine in Mexico City. A total of 278 fifth-year medical students were assessed with an 18-station OSCE in a summative end-of-career final examination. There were four exam versions. G-theory with a crossover random effects design was used to identify the main sources of variance. Examiners, standardized patients, and cases were considered as a single facet of analysis. The exam was applied to 278 medical students. The OSCE had a generalizability coefficient of 0.93. The major components of variance were stations, students, and residual error. The sites and the versions of the tests had minimum variance. Our study achieved a G coefficient similar to that found in other reports, which is acceptable for summative tests. G-theory allows the estimation of the magnitude of multiple sources of error and helps decision makers to determine the number of stations, test versions, and examiners needed to obtain reliable measurements.

  4. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS AND ITS ROLE IN INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorina Simona BUMBESCU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The investment projects have of particular importance for the development and progress of an organization. The development of investment projects involves making a decision and the existence of financial resources. The agriculture has specific features and contributes significantly to the gross domestic product, which is why channeling the investments to agriculture must be a priority. In this context, the cost-benefit analysis is a useful tool for evaluation and analysis of the investment projects, contributing significantly to the decision making regarding the choice of the optimal project. The objective of this article is to highlight the importance of cost-benefit analysis for the projects investment financed by the European Union through the Rural National Development Program 2007-2013, under axis IV LEADER. The article is structured in two parts which contains theoretical aspects and a case study. Thus it is made an overview of the investment, funding sources of the investment projects, the investment decision, the relevance of cost-benefit analysis for the investment projects. The case study aims to analyze the relationship between the results of the investment projects which include cost-benefit analysis and those that do not inlcude cost-benefit analysis.

  5. Assessing Reliability of Cellulose Hydrolysis Models to Support Biofuel Process Design – Identifiability and Uncertainty Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sin, Gürkan; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2010-01-01

    The reliability of cellulose hydrolysis models is studied using the NREL model. An identifiability analysis revealed that only 6 out of 26 parameters are identifiable from the available data (typical hydrolysis experiments). Attempting to identify a higher number of parameters (as done in the ori...... to analyze the uncertainty of model predictions. This allows judging the fitness of the model to the purpose under uncertainty. Hence we recommend uncertainty analysis as a proactive solution when faced with model uncertainty, which is the case for biofuel process development research....

  6. Using dynamic factor analysis to provide insights into data reliability in experience sampling studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; Hartley-Clark, Linda; Cummins, Robert A; Tomyn, Adrian J; Weinberg, Melissa K; Richardson, Ben

    2017-09-01

    The past 2 decades have seen increasing use of experience sampling methods (ESMs) to gain insights into the daily experience of affective states (e.g., its variability, as well as antecedents and consequences of temporary shifts in affect). Much less attention has been given to methodological challenges, such as how to ensure reliability of test scores obtained using ESM. The present study demonstrates the use of dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to quantify reliability of test scores in ESM contexts, evaluates the potential impact of unreliable test scores, and seeks to identify characteristics of individuals that may account for their unreliable test scores. One hundred twenty-seven participants completed baseline measures (demographics and personality traits), followed by a 7-day ESM phase in which positive and negative state affect were measured up to 6 times per day. Analyses showed that although at the sample level, scores on these affect measures exhibited adequate levels of reliability, up to one third of participants failed to meet conventional standards of reliability. Where these low reliability estimates were not significantly associated with personality factors, they could-in some cases-be explained by model misspecification where a meaningful alternative structure was available. Despite these potential differences in factor structure across participants, subsequent modeling with and without these "unreliable" cases showed similar substantive results. Hence, the present findings suggest typical analyses based on ESM data may be robust to individual differences in data structure and/or quality. Ways to augment the DFA approach to better understand unreliable cases are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: economics and marketing-finance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalogeras, N; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Pennings, J M E; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    All market participants (e.g., investors, producers, consumers) accept a certain level of risk as necessary to achieve certain benefits. There are many types of risk including price, production, financial, institutional, and individual human risks. All these risks should be effectively managed in order to derive the utmost of benefits and avoid disruption and/or catastrophic economic consequences for the food industry. The identification, analysis, determination, and understanding of the benefit-risk trade-offs of market participants in the food markets may help policy makers, financial analysts and marketers to make well-informed and effective corporate investment strategies in order to deal with highly uncertain and risky situations. In this paper, we discuss the role that benefits and risks play in the formation of the decision-making process of market-participants, who are engaged in the upstream and downstream stages of the food supply chain. In addition, we review the most common approaches (expected utility model and psychometrics) for measuring benefit-risk trade-offs in the economics and marketing-finance literature, and different factors that may affect the economic behaviour in the light of benefit-risk analyses. Building on the findings of our review, we introduce a conceptual framework to study the benefit-risk behaviour of market participants. Specifically, we suggest the decoupling of benefits and risks into the separate components of utilitarian benefits, hedonic benefits, and risk attitude and risk perception, respectively. Predicting and explaining how market participants in the food industry form their overall attitude in light of benefit-risk trade-offs may be critical for policy-makers and managers who need to understand the drivers of the economic behaviour of market participants with respect to production, marketing and consumption of food products. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Human reliability analysis of Three Mile Island II accident considering THERP and ATHEANA methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fonseca, Renato Alves; Alvarenga, Marco Antonio Bayout; Gibelli, Sonia Maria Orlando [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mails: rfonseca@cnen.gov.br; bayout@cnen.gov.br; sonia@cnen.gov.br; Alvim, Antonio Carlos Marques; Frutuoso e Melo, Paulo Fernando Ferreira [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil)]. E-mails: Alvim@con.ufrj.br; frutuoso@con.ufrj.br

    2008-07-01

    The main purpose of this work is to perform a human reliability analysis using THERP (Technique for Human Error Prediction) and ATHEANA (A Technique for Human Error Analysis) methodologies, as well as their application to the development of qualitative and quantitative analysis of a nuclear power plant accident. The accident selected was the one that occurred at the Three Mile Island (TMI) Unit 2 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) nuclear power plan. The accident analysis has revealed a series of unsafe actions that resulted in permanent loss of the unit. This study also aims at enhancing the understanding of THERP and ATHEANA methodologies and their possible interactions with practical applications. The TMI accident analysis has pointed out the possibility of integration of THERP and ATHEANA methodologies. In this work, the integration between both methodologies is developed in a way to allow better understanding of the influence of operational context on human errors. (author)

  9. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: food and nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tijhuis, M J; de Jong, N; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Hendriksen, M; Hoekstra, J; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; van Leeuwen, F X R; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Rompelberg, C; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    Benefit-risk assessment in food and nutrition is relatively new. It weighs the beneficial and adverse effects that a food (component) may have, in order to facilitate more informed management decisions regarding public health issues. It is rooted in the recognition that good food and nutrition can improve health and that some risk may be acceptable if benefit is expected to outweigh it. This paper presents an overview of current concepts and practices in benefit-risk analysis for food and nutrition. It aims to facilitate scientists and policy makers in performing, interpreting and evaluating benefit-risk assessments. Historically, the assessments of risks and benefits have been separate processes. Risk assessment is mainly addressed by toxicology, as demanded by regulation. It traditionally assumes that a maximum safe dose can be determined from experimental studies (usually in animals) and that applying appropriate uncertainty factors then defines the 'safe' intake for human populations. There is a minor role for other research traditions in risk assessment, such as epidemiology, which quantifies associations between determinants and health effects in humans. These effects can be both adverse and beneficial. Benefit assessment is newly developing in regulatory terms, but has been the subject of research for a long time within nutrition and epidemiology. The exact scope is yet to be defined. Reductions in risk can be termed benefits, but also states rising above 'the average health' are explored as benefits. In nutrition, current interest is in 'optimal' intake; from a population perspective, but also from a more individualised perspective. In current approaches to combine benefit and risk assessment, benefit assessment mirrors the traditional risk assessment paradigm of hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Benefit-risk comparison can be qualitative and quantitative. In a quantitative comparison, benefits

  10. Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Heeter, Jenny [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Carpenter, Alberta [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heath, Garvin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Macknick, Jordan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Millstein, Dev [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-06

    This analysis is the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). This joint National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory project provides a retrospective analysis of RPS program benefits and impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions reductions, air pollution emission reductions, water use reductions, gross jobs and economic development impacts, wholesale electricity price reduction impacts, and natural gas price reduction impacts. Wherever possible, benefits and impacts are quantified in monetary terms. The paper will inform state policymakers, RPS program administrators, industry, and others about the costs and benefits of state RPS programs. In particular, the work seeks to inform decision-making surrounding ongoing legislative proposals to scale back, freeze, or expand existing RPS programs, as well as future discussions about increasing RPS targets or otherwise increasing renewable energy associated with Clean Power Plan compliance or other emission-reduction goals.

  11. Analysis of Potential Benefits and Costs of Adopting a Commercial Building Energy Standard in South Dakota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belzer, David B.; Cort, Katherine A.; Winiarski, David W.; Richman, Eric E.

    2005-03-04

    The state of South Dakota is considering adopting a commercial building energy standard. This report evaluates the potential costs and benefits to South Dakota residents from requiring compliance with the most recent edition of the ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1-2001 Energy Standard for Buildings except Low-Rise Residential Buildings. These standards were developed in an effort to set minimum requirements for the energy efficient design and construction of new commercial buildings. The quantitative benefits and costs of adopting a commercial building energy code are modeled by comparing the characteristics of assumed current building practices with the most recent edition of the ASHRAE Standard, 90.1-2001. Both qualitative and quantitative benefits and costs are assessed in this analysis. Energy and economic impacts are estimated using results from a detailed building simulation tool (Building Loads Analysis and System Thermodynamics [BLAST] model) combined with a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) approach to assess corresponding economic costs and benefits.

  12. PERFORMANCE-RELIABILITY – THE MAIN SUBJECT OF THE BANKING ANALYSIS OF THE CREDITED SOCIETIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AVRAM (BOITOŞ CAMELIA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the crediting activity occupies the primary role in any banking institution, the necessity of study and its analysis is required by following some steps both at a microeconomic level and at a macroeconomic one. Going over the theme, which aims at the importance of a thorough study of the clients' reliability for highlighting the existing risks in the banking activity in general, and particularly in the crediting activity, becomes as more interesting as their approach at the level of the member states of the European Union tends towards a common theme. Starting from these premises, we have considered as being extremely important the selection of a research theme which aims at the risks in the crediting activity, emphasizing the analysis of the clients' reliability both in the decision of crediting in order to assume the risk of credit and in determining the financial and banking performances. Being given the complexity of the existing risks in the banking activity in general and particularly of the credit risk, the clients' reliability represents an extremely important field, of research and application, bearing in mind both the actual stage of developing the Romanian banking system and the attempts of its alignment to the requirements imposed by the European Union.

  13. Practical applications of age-dependent reliability models and analysis of operational data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lannoy, A.; Nitoi, M.; Backstrom, O.; Burgazzi, L.; Couallier, V.; Nikulin, M.; Derode, A.; Rodionov, A.; Atwood, C.; Fradet, F.; Antonov, A.; Berezhnoy, A.; Choi, S.Y.; Starr, F.; Dawson, J.; Palmen, H.; Clerjaud, L

    2005-07-01

    The purpose of the workshop was to present the experience of practical application of time-dependent reliability models. The program of the workshop comprises the following sessions: -) aging management and aging PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), -) modeling, -) operation experience, and -) accelerating aging tests. In order to introduce time aging effect of particular component to the PSA model, it has been proposed to use the constant unavailability values on the short period of time (one year for example) calculated on the basis of age-dependent reliability models. As for modeling, it appears that the problem of too detailed statistical models for application is the lack of data for required parameters. As for operating experience, several methods of operating experience analysis have been presented (algorithms for reliability data elaboration and statistical identification of aging trend). As for accelerated aging tests, it is demonstrated that a combination of operating experience analysis with the results of accelerated aging tests of naturally aged equipment could provide a good basis for continuous operation of instrumentation and control systems.

  14. Cost benefit analysis of a transport improvement in the case of search unemployment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pilegaard, Ninette; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2008-01-01

    We examine the implications of search unemployment for the evaluation of a transport investment in a conventional cost benefit analysis (CBA) assuming perfect competition. Lower transport costs induce search over a larger area and longer commuting distances. The expected duration of vacancies...... is reduced with ensuing benefits outweighing the loss to increased transport. The search imperfection drives a wedge between the marginal product of labour and the wage, such that the final benefits of a transport improvement exceed those of a conventional CBA. Using a simulation model we find...

  15. A Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, Ryan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Heeter, Jenny [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Carpenter, Alberta [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heath, Garvin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Macknick, Jordan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Millstein, Dev [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-07-31

    This report, the second in the series, analyzes historical benefits and impacts of all state RPS policies, in aggregate, employing a consistent and well-vetted set of methods and data sets. The analysis focuses on three specific benefits: greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and water use. It also analyzes three other impacts: gross job additions, wholesale electricity market price suppression, and natural gas price suppression. These are an important subset, but by no means a comprehensive set, of all possible effects associated with RPS policies. These benefits and impacts are also subject to many uncertainties, which are described and, to the extent possible, quantified within the report.

  16. Public versus Private Incentives to Invest in Green Roofs: A Cost Benefit Analysis for Flanders

    OpenAIRE

    Claus, Karla; Rousseau, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    By means of a cost benefit analysis, we compare public and private incentives to invest in extensive green roofs in urban areas. From the comparison of these public and private incentives we find that subsidies for green roofs are socially desirable and that subsidies are actually needed to convince potential private investors to construct green roofs. Specifically, we estimate the costs and benefits associated with an investment project in Groot-Bijgaarden (Belgium) where a real estate inves...

  17. Evolving Cuban-CARICOM relations : a comparative cost/benefit analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Erisman

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Survey of the basic developmental dynamics involved in the evolving Cuban-CARICOM relationship. On the basis of a cost-risk/benefit analysis, the author provides some projections regarding the future of this relationship. He concludes that there appear sufficient potential benefits for both sides to deepen the relationship. Cuban-CARICOM integration, however, has no top priority for either partner.

  18. When Violence Pays: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Aggressive Behavior in Animals and Humans

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiev, Alexander V.; Klimczuk, Amanda C. E.; Daniel M. Traficonte; Dario Maestripieri

    2013-01-01

    An optimization analysis of human behavior from a comparative perspective can improve our understanding of the adaptiveness of human nature. Intra-specific competition for resources provides the main selective pressure for the evolution of violent aggression toward conspecifics, and variation in the fitness benefits and costs of aggression can account for inter-specific and inter-individual differences in aggressiveness. When aggression reflects competition for resources, its benefits vary in...

  19. RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montani, S. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita del Piemonte Orientale, Via Bellini 25g, 15100 Alessandria (Italy)], E-mail: stefania@mfn.unipmn.it; Portinale, L. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita del Piemonte Orientale, Via Bellini 25g, 15100 Alessandria (Italy)], E-mail: portinal@mfn.unipmn.it; Bobbio, A. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita del Piemonte Orientale, Via Bellini 25g, 15100 Alessandria (Italy)], E-mail: bobbio@mfn.unipmn.it; Codetta-Raiteri, D. [Dipartimento di Informatica, Universita del Piemonte Orientale, Via Bellini 25g, 15100 Alessandria (Italy)], E-mail: raiteri@mfn.unipmn.it

    2008-07-15

    In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained.

  20. Handbook of human-reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swain, A D; Guttmann, H E

    1983-08-01

    The primary purpose of the Handbook is to present methods, models, and estimated human error probabilities (HEPs) to enable qualified analysts to make quantitative or qualitative assessments of occurrences of human errors in nuclear power plants (NPPs) that affect the availability or operational reliability of engineered safety features and components. The Handbook is intended to provide much of the modeling and information necessary for the performance of human reliability analysis (HRA) as a part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of NPPs. Although not a design guide, a second purpose of the Handbook is to enable the user to recognize error-likely equipment design, plant policies and practices, written procedures, and other human factors problems so that improvements can be considered. The Handbook provides the methodology to identify and quantify the potential for human error in NPP tasks.

  1. Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Chloride Ingress into Reinforced Concrete Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, Christian; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2007-01-01

    For many reinforced concrete structures corrosion of the reinforcement is an important problem since it can result in maintenance and repair actions. Further, a reduction of the load-bearing capacity can occur. In the present paper the Finite Element Reliability Method (FERM) is employed...... for obtaining the probability of exceeding a critical chloride concentration level at the reinforcement bars, both using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The chloride ingress is modelled by the Finite Element Method (FEM) and the diffusion coefficient, surface chloride...... concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modelled by stochastic fields, which are discretized using the Expansion Optimum Linear Estimation (EOLE) approach. The response gradients needed for FORM analysis are derived analytically using the Direct Differentiation Method (DDM). As an example, a bridge pier...

  2. Multi-Level Simulated Fault Injection for Data Dependent Reliability Analysis of RTL Circuit Descriptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NIMARA, S.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes data-dependent reliability evaluation methodology for digital systems described at Register Transfer Level (RTL. It uses a hybrid hierarchical approach, combining the accuracy provided by Gate Level (GL Simulated Fault Injection (SFI and the low simulation overhead required by RTL fault injection. The methodology comprises the following steps: the correct simulation of the RTL system, according to a set of input vectors, hierarchical decomposition of the system into basic RTL blocks, logic synthesis of basic RTL blocks, data-dependent SFI for the GL netlists, and RTL SFI. The proposed methodology has been validated in terms of accuracy on a medium sized circuit – the parallel comparator used in Check Node Unit (CNU of the Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC decoders. The methodology has been applied for the reliability analysis of a 128-bit Advanced Encryption Standard (AES crypto-core, for which the GL simulation was prohibitive in terms of required computational resources.

  3. Spatial reliability analysis of a wind turbine blade cross section subjected to multi-axial extreme loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Bitsche, Robert; Blasques, José Pedro Albergaria Amaral

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for structural reliability analysis of wind turbine blades. The study introduces several novel elements by taking into account loading direction using a multiaxial probabilistic load model, considering random material strength, spatial correlation between material...... properties, progressive material failure, and system reliability effects. An example analysis of reliability against material failure is demonstrated for a blade cross section. Based on the study we discuss the implications of using a system reliability approach, the effect of spatial correlation length......, type of material degradation algorithm, and reliability methods on the system failure probability, as well as the main factors that have an influence on the reliability. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  4. Report to the Legislature on Scoliosis Screening Cost/Benefit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington Office of the State Superintendent of Public Instruction, Olympia.

    A report is given of an analysis of costs and benefits of scoliosis screening tests given to children in the 9th and 10th grades. For comparison, an analysis is included on the effectiveness of tests in grades 5 through 8. Information was collected on the number of children in the State of Washington who underwent either brace treatment or…

  5. Benefit Cost Analysis for Surface Engineering Solutions Funded by SERDP/ESTCP Weapons, Systems & Platforms Program Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    costs from manufacturing to ultimate disposal o ENVIRONMENTAL RISK : Reduced environmental risks in manufacturing and maintenance depot...further DOD deployments and benefits? • Identify DOD benefits in cost savings, environmental risk reduction, and readiness. Quantify these benefits...Missile (ESSM), ATFLIR and Test Range Metrology 8 If you have questions, comments or suggestions for WP Benefit Cost Analysis project, please

  6. Mapping Green Spaces in Bishkek—How Reliable can Spatial Analysis Be?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Hofmann

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Within urban areas, green spaces play a critically important role in the quality of life. They have remarkable impact on the local microclimate and the regional climate of the city. Quantifying the ‘greenness’ of urban areas allows comparing urban areas at several levels, as well as monitoring the evolution of green spaces in urban areas, thus serving as a tool for urban and developmental planning. Different categories of vegetation have different impacts on recreation potential and microclimate, as well as on the individual perception of green spaces. However, when quantifying the ‘greenness’ of urban areas the reliability of the underlying information is important in order to qualify analysis results. The reliability of geo-information derived from remote sensing data is usually assessed by ground truth validation or by comparison with other reference data. When applying methods of object based image analysis (OBIA and fuzzy classification, the degrees of fuzzy membership per object in general describe to what degree an object fits (prototypical class descriptions. Thus, analyzing the fuzzy membership degrees can contribute to the estimation of reliability and stability of classification results, even when no reference data are available. This paper presents an object based method using fuzzy class assignments to outline and classify three different classes of vegetation from GeoEye imagery. The classification result, its reliability and stability are evaluated using the reference-free parameters Best Classification Result and Classification Stability as introduced by Benz et al. in 2004 and implemented in the software package eCognition (www.ecognition.com. To demonstrate the application potentials of results a scenario for quantifying urban ‘greenness’ is presented.

  7. Development of a cost effective three-dimensional posture analysis tool: validity and reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brink, Yolandi; Louw, Quinette; Grimmer, Karen; Schreve, Kristiaan; van der Westhuizen, Gareth; Jordaan, Esmè

    2013-12-01

    The lack of clear understanding of the association between sitting posture and adolescent musculoskeletal pain, might reflect invalid and/or unreliable posture measurement instruments. The psychometric properties of any new measurement instrument should be demonstrated prior to use for research or clinical purposes. This paper describes psychometric testing of a new three-dimensional (3D), portable, non-invasive posture analysis tool (3D-PAT), from sequential studies using a mannequin and high school students. The first study compared the 3D-(X-, Y- and Z-) coordinates of reflective markers placed on a mannequin using the 3D-PAT, and the Vicon motion analysis system. This study also tested the reliability of taking repeated measures of the 3D-coordinates of the reflective markers. The second study determined the concurrent validity and test-retest reliability of the 3D-PAT measurements of nine sitting postural angles of high school students undertaking a standard computing task. In both studies, concordance correlation coefficients and Intraclass correlation coefficients described test-retest reliability, whilst Pearson product moment correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots demonstrated concurrent validity. The 3D-PAT provides reliable and valid 3D measurements of five of the nine postural angles i.e. head flexion, neck flexion, cranio-cervical angle, trunk flexion and head lateral bending in adolescents undertaking a standard task. The 3D-PAT is appropriate for research and clinical settings to measure five upper quadrant postural angles in three dimensions. As a measurement instrument it can provide further understanding of the relationship between sitting posture, changes to sitting posture and adolescent musculoskeletal pain.

  8. Dimensionality and Reliability of the Self-Care of Heart Failure Index Scales: Further Evidence from Confirmatory Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbaranelli, Claudio; Lee, Christopher S.; Vellone, Ercole; Riegel, Barbara

    2014-01-01

    The Self-Care of Heart Failure Index (SCHFI) is used widely, but issues with reliability have been evident. Cronbach alpha coefficient is usually used to assess reliability, but this approach assumes a unidimensional scale. The purpose of this article is to address the dimensionality and internal consistency reliability of the SCHFI. This was a secondary analysis of data from 629 adults with heart failure enrolled in three separate studies conducted in the northeastern and northwestern United States. Following testing for scale dimensionality using confirmatory factor analysis, reliability was tested using coefficient alpha and alternative options. Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated that: a) the self-care maintenance scale has a multidimensional 4-factor structure; b) the self-care management scale has a 2-factor structure, but the primary factors loaded on a common higher-order factor; and c) the self-care confidence scale is unidimensional. Reliability estimates for the three scales, obtained with methods compatible with each scale’s dimensionality, were adequate or high. The results of the analysis demonstrate that issues of dimensionality and reliability cannot be separated. Appropriate estimates of reliability that are consistent with the dimensionality of the scale must be used. In the case of the SCHFI, coefficient alpha should not be used to assess reliability of the self-care maintenance and the self-care management scales, due to their multidimensionality. We recommend testing dimensionality before assessing reliability, as well using multiple indices of reliability, such as model-based internal consistency, composite reliability, and omega and maximal reliability coefficients. PMID:25324013

  9. Dimensionality and reliability of the self-care of heart failure index scales: further evidence from confirmatory factor analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbaranelli, Claudio; Lee, Christopher S; Vellone, Ercole; Riegel, Barbara

    2014-12-01

    The Self-Care of Heart Failure Index (SCHFI) is used widely, but issues with reliability have been evident. Cronbach alpha coefficient is usually used to assess reliability, but this approach assumes a unidimensional scale. The purpose of this article is to address the dimensionality and internal consistency reliability of the SCHFI. This was a secondary analysis of data from 629 adults with heart failure enrolled in three separate studies conducted in the northeastern and northwestern United States. Following testing for scale dimensionality using confirmatory factor analysis, reliability was tested using coefficient alpha and alternative options. Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated that: (a) the Self-Care Maintenance Scale has a multidimensional four-factor structure; (b) the Self-Care Management Scale has a two-factor structure, but the primary factors loaded on a common higher-order factor; and (c) the Self-Care Confidence Scale is unidimensional. Reliability estimates for the three scales, obtained with methods compatible with each scale's dimensionality, were adequate or high. The results of the analysis demonstrate that issues of dimensionality and reliability cannot be separated. Appropriate estimates of reliability that are consistent with the dimensionality of the scale must be used. In the case of the SCHFI, coefficient alpha should not be used to assess reliability of the self-care maintenance and the self-care management scales, due to their multidimensionality. When performing psychometric evaluations, we recommend testing dimensionality before assessing reliability, as well using multiple indices of reliability, such as model-based internal consistency, composite reliability, and omega and maximal reliability coefficients. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. RELAP5/MOD3.3 Best Estimate Analyses for Human Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Prošek

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available To estimate the success criteria time windows of operator actions the conservative approach was used in the conventional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA. The current PSA standard recommends the use of best-estimate codes. The purpose of the study was to estimate the operator action success criteria time windows in scenarios in which the human actions are supplement to safety systems actuations, needed for updated human reliability analysis (HRA. For calculations the RELAP5/MOD3.3 best estimate thermal-hydraulic computer code and the qualified RELAP5 input model representing a two-loop pressurized water reactor, Westinghouse type, were used. The results of deterministic safety analysis were examined what is the latest time to perform the operator action and still satisfy the safety criteria. The results showed that uncertainty analysis of realistic calculation in general is not needed for human reliability analysis when additional time is available and/or the event is not significant contributor to the risk.

  11. Reliability analysis of repairable systems using Petri nets and vague Lambda-Tau methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Harish

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of the paper is to developed a methodology, named as vague Lambda-Tau, for reliability analysis of repairable systems. Petri net tool is applied to represent the asynchronous and concurrent processing of the system instead of fault tree analysis. To enhance the relevance of the reliability study, vague set theory is used for representing the failure rate and repair times instead of classical(crisp) or fuzzy set theory because vague sets are characterized by a truth membership function and false membership functions (non-membership functions) so that sum of both values is less than 1. The proposed methodology involves qualitative modeling using PN and quantitative analysis using Lambda-Tau method of solution with the basic events represented by intuitionistic fuzzy numbers of triangular membership functions. Sensitivity analysis has also been performed and the effects on system MTBF are addressed. The methodology improves the shortcomings of the existing probabilistic approaches and gives a better understanding of the system behavior through its graphical representation. The washing unit of a paper mill situated in a northern part of India, producing approximately 200 ton of paper per day, has been considered to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results may be helpful for the plant personnel for analyzing the systems' behavior and to improve their performance by adopting suitable maintenance strategies. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Analysis of Benefits of an Energy Imbalance Market in the NWPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samaan, Nader A.; Bayless, Rich; Symonds, Mark; Nguyen, Tony B.; Jin, Chunlian; Wu, Di; Diao, Ruisheng; Makarov, Yuri V.; Kannberg, Landis D.; Guo, Tao; Dennison-Leonard , Sarah; Goodenough, Mike; Schellberg, Ron; Conger, Sid; Harris, Kevin; Rarity, Matt; Wallace, Steven; Austin, Jamie; Noteboom, Rod; Van Blaricom , Tim; McRunnel, Kim; Apperson, John; Empey, Marshall; Etingov, Pavel V.; Warady, Debra; Brush, Ray; Newkirk, Joshua; Williams, Peter; Landauer, Marv; Owen, Hugh; Morter, Wayne; Haraguchi, Keli; Portouw, Jim; Downey, kathryn; Sorey, Steve; Williams, Stan; Gossa, Teyent; Kalich, Clint; Damiano, Patrick; Macarthur, Clay; Martin, Tom; Hoerner, Joe; Knudsen, Steve; Johnson, Anders; Link, Rick; Holcomb, Dennis

    2013-10-18

    the NWPP depending on what assumptions are made. The instructions from the MC were to determine a "minimum high confidence" range of potential benefits. The results for the Base Case indicate that the EIM benefits ranged from approximately $40 million to $70 million in annual savings from the operation of an EIM in the NWPP footprint. A number of additional relevant sensitivity cases were performed, including low and high water conditions, low and high natural gas prices, and various flex reserve requirements, resource operations, and amounts of resource capability held back during the preschedule period. Along with the results for the Base Case, the results for these studies yielded EIM benefits that clustered within the range of $70 to $80 million dollars per year with potential benefits ranging from approximately $125 million to as little as $17 million per year. Because the design and operation of an EIM could enable participating Balancing Authorities (BAs) to collectively lower the quantity of resources they must carry to meet within-hour balancing needs, a sensitivity case was also performed to analyze the impact that such reductions might have on the benefits from an EIM. The results for this sensitivity case indicate that such reductions could increase the benefits from the operation of an EIM in the NWPP into the range of approximately $130 million to $160 million per year. Also, a sensitivity case for a WECC-wide EIM was performed with the results indicating that the potential benefits to the NWPP could increase into the range of $197 million to $233 million per year. While there may be potential reliability benefits from the coordinated dispatch process underlying the operation of an EIM, reliability benefits from an EIM were out of the scope of this study. The EIM benefit analyses that were performed by the Analytical Team are provided in this report.

  13. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON INCENTIVES FOR INVESTMENTS IN PLUM TREES PLANTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijan Karić

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider the application of Cost/Benefit Analysis procedure in the decision process on socialeconomic profitability of subsidy implementation for investments in agricultural production, based on newly planted plum trees. Cost/Benefit Analysis has many advantages over the other common methods. It proved to be especially useful in the agricultural production, because it is possible to estimate the profitability of investments in the special conditions of agricultural production, taking into account many factors of its economic efficiency, as well as main effects that individual producers and the whole social community can expect. The application of Cost/Benefit Analysis, based on the data gathered for Bosnia and Herzegovina, enabled insight into the profitability of the existing subsidy programs for investments in plum trees planting, that take place in the conditon of the whole economy transition and high degree of rural population unemployment.

  14. Increasing the reliability of the fluid/crystallized difference score from the Kaufman Adolescent and Adult Intelligence Test with reliable component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, J C

    2001-06-01

    The unreliability of difference scores is a well documented phenomenon in the social sciences and has led researchers and practitioners to interpret differences cautiously, if at all. In the case of the Kaufman Adult and Adolescent Intelligence Test (KAIT), the unreliability of the difference between the Fluid IQ and the Crystallized IQ is due to the high correlation between the two scales. The consequences of the lack of precision with which differences are identified are wide confidence intervals and unpowerful significance tests (i.e., large differences are required to be declared statistically significant). Reliable component analysis (RCA) was performed on the subtests of the KAIT in order to address these problems. RCA is a new data reduction technique that results in uncorrelated component scores with maximum proportions of reliable variance. Results indicate that the scores defined by RCA have discriminant and convergent validity (with respect to the equally weighted scores) and that differences between the scores, derived from a single testing session, were more reliable than differences derived from equal weighting for each age group (11-14 years, 15-34 years, 35-85+ years). This reliability advantage results in narrower confidence intervals around difference scores and smaller differences required for statistical significance.

  15. Reliability of a combined biomechanical and surface electromyographical analysis system during dynamic barbell squat exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Raphael; Howatson, Glyn; Hunter, Angus

    2011-10-01

    An analysis system for barbell weightlifting exercises is proposed to record reliable performance and neuromuscular responses. The system consists of surface electromyography (sEMG) synchronized with electrogoniometry and a barbell position transducer. The purpose of this study was to establish the reliability of the three components of the system. Nine males (age 28.9 ± 4.8 years, mass 85.7 ± 15.1 kg) performed squat exercise at three loads on three separate trial days. A data acquisition and software system processed maximal knee angle (flexion), mean power for the concentric phase of squat exercise, and normalized root mean square of the vastus lateralis. Inter-trial coefficients of variation for each variable were calculated as 5.3%, 7.8%, and 7.5% respectively. In addition, knee joint motion and barbell displacement were significantly related to each other (bar displacement (m) = 1.39-0.0057 × knee angle (degress), with goodness-of-fit value, r² = 0.817), suggesting knee goniometry alone can represent the kinematics of a multi-joint squat exercise. The proven reliability of the three components of this system allows for real-time monitoring of resistance exercise using the preferred training methods of athletes, which could be valuable in the understanding of the neuromuscular response of elite strength training methods.

  16. Reliability Analysis of a Composite Wind Turbine Blade Section Using the Model Correction Factor Method: Numerical Study and Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Berggreen, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Reliability analysis of fiber-reinforced composite structures is a relatively unexplored field, and it is therefore expected that engineers and researchers trying to apply such an approach will meet certain challenges until more knowledge is accumulated. While doing the analyses included in the p...... to be a fast and efficient way to calculate the reliability index of a complex composite structure....

  17. The Application of the Model Correction Factor Method to a Reliability Analysis of a Composite Blade Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimiroy; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Berggreen, Christian

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis of a composite blade profile. The so-called Model Correction Factor technique is applied as an effective alternate approach to the response surface technique. The structural reliability is determined by use of a simplified idealised analytical model whic...

  18. STADIUM SOI reliability simulator for the analysis of hot-electron and ESD-induced degradation in nonisothermal devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, David; Sanders, Thomas J.

    1997-09-01

    This paper addresses the integrated circuit industry needs for non-isothermal simulation in device reliability analysis, initial input factor sensitivity analysis and their software implementation. The key reliability issues are the hot-electron induced oxide damages and electro-static discharge (ESD) damages. The main purpose of this work is to provide a design aid tool to improve device reliability and performance. The reliability simulator developed in this work not only predicts designed device reliability, but also provides some information about the effect of manufacturing variations on reliability. This is accomplished by combining the statistical methodology with existing technology computer aided design (TCAD) tools. The design of experiment (DoE) technique can be successfully employed to analyze the effect of manufacturing variations on the SOT device reliability. As an example, the reliability analysis and the statistical analysis have performed on SOT MOS devices (partially depleted and fully depleted SOT) and submicron bulk-Si MOSFET's to verify the applied modeling method.

  19. A method for the inclusion of physical activity-related health benefits in cost-benefit analysis of built environment initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata-Diomedi, Belen; Gunn, Lucy; Giles-Corti, Billie; Shiell, Alan; Lennert Veerman, J

    2018-01-01

    The built environment has a significant influence on population levels of physical activity (PA) and therefore health. However, PA-related health benefits are seldom considered in transport and urban planning (i.e. built environment interventions) cost-benefit analysis. Cost-benefit analysis implies that the benefits of any initiative are valued in monetary terms to make them commensurable with costs. This leads to the need for monetised values of the health benefits of PA. The aim of this study was to explore a method for the incorporation of monetised PA-related health benefits in cost-benefit analysis of built environment interventions. Firstly, we estimated the change in population level of PA attributable to a change in the built environment due to the intervention. Then, changes in population levels of PA were translated into monetary values. For the first step we used estimates from the literature for the association of built environment features with physical activity outcomes. For the second step we used the multi-cohort proportional multi-state life table model to predict changes in health-adjusted life years and health care costs as a function of changes in PA. Finally, we monetised health-adjusted life years using the value of a statistical life year. Future research could adapt these methods to assess the health and economic impacts of specific urban development scenarios by working in collaboration with urban planners. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Citation-related reliability analysis for a pilot sample of underground coal mines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinilakodi, Harisha; Grayson, R Larry

    2011-05-01

    The scrutiny of underground coal mine safety was heightened because of the disasters that occurred in 2006-2007, and more recently in 2010. In the aftermath of the 2006 incidents, the U.S. Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 (MINER Act), which strengthened the existing regulations and mandated new laws to address various issues related to emergency preparedness and response, escape from an emergency situation, and protection of miners. The National Mining Association-sponsored Mine Safety Technology and Training Commission study highlighted the role of risk management in identifying and controlling major hazards, which are elements that could come together and cause a mine disaster. In 2007 MSHA revised its approach to the "Pattern of Violations" (POV) process in order to target unsafe mines and then force them to remediate conditions in their mines. The POV approach has certain limitations that make it difficult for it to be enforced. One very understandable way to focus on removing threats from major-hazard conditions is to use citation-related reliability analysis. The citation reliability approach, which focuses on the probability of not getting a citation on a given inspector day, is considered an analogue to the maintenance reliability approach, which many mine operators understand and use. In this study, the citation reliability approach was applied to a stratified random sample of 31 underground coal mines to examine its potential for broader application. The results clearly show the best-performing and worst-performing mines for compliance with mine safety standards, and they highlight differences among different mine sizes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Reliability and validity of the protokinetics movement analysis software in measuring center of pressure during walking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynall, Robert C; Zukowski, Lisa A; Plummer, Prudence; Mihalik, Jason P

    2017-02-01

    Our purpose was to determine the validity and test-retest reliability of the Protokinetics Movement Analysis Software (PKMAS) in measuring center of pressure (COP) during walking as compared to a force plate gold standard. Twenty-five healthy participants (14 females, 11 males; age 20.0±1.5years) completed 2 testing sessions approximately 5days apart (mean=5.5±1.1 days). In each session, participants completed 16 total trials across a 6m walkway: 8 trials walking on a ProtoKinetics Zeno Walkway using PKMAS and 8 trials walking over 2 force plates arranged in an offset tandem pattern. COP path length (cm) and speed (cm/s) were calculated from data averaged across the 8 trials on a given device for a given foot. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC 2, k) were computed to determine between session reliability. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and Bland-Altman plots were produced between the PKMAS and force plate outcomes for session 1 to determine validity. The PKMAS demonstrated excellent reliability (ICC 2, k≥0.962) for all COP measures. Pearson correlation coefficients between PKMAS and force plates were ≥0.75 for all outcome variables. Bland-Altman plots and 95% levels of agreement revealed a bias where the PKMAS appeared to underestimate COP path length and speed by approximately 4cm and 6cm/s, respectively. After correcting for bias, our findings suggest the PKMAS is a reliable tool to measure COP in healthy people during gait. Using the PKMAS with the ProtoKinetics Zeno Walkway may allow for more efficient investigation of dynamic balance variables during functional movement tasks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Large Hadron Collider to 2025 and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Florio, Massimo; Sirtori, Emanuela

    2015-01-01

    Social cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of projects has been successfully applied in different fields such as transport, energy, health, education, and environment, including climate change. It is often argued that it is impossible to extend the CBA approach to the evaluation of the social impact of research infrastructures, because the final benefit to society of scientific discovery is generally unpredictable. Here, we propose a quantitative approach to this problem, we use it to design an empirically testable CBA model, and we apply it to the the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the highest-energy accelerator in the world, currently operating at CERN. We show that the evaluation of benefits can be made quantitative by determining their value to users (scientists, early-stage researchers, firms, visitors) and non-users (the general public). Four classes of contributions to users are identified: knowledge output, human capital development, technological spillovers, and cultural effects. Benefits for non-users can be ...

  3. The influence of costs and benefits' analysis on service strategy formulation: Learnings from the shipping industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pagoropoulos, Aris; Kjær, Louise Laumann; Andersen, Jakob Axel Bejbro

    2017-01-01

    . This paper assesses how the analysis of costs and benefits of Product-Service Systems (PSS) as servitized offerings influences the formulation of service strategies in the shipping industry. The study examines both the manufacturer and customer perspectives using two case studies from the shipping sector...... strategies, the analysis of costs and benefits highlighted the importance of the abilities of both the customer and the manufacturer to deliver and implement a PSS. Moreover, the customer perspective highlighted the importance of internal functions and capabilities that allowed the customer to implement...

  4. A Conceptual Cost Benefit Analysis of Tailings Matrices Use in Construction Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood Ali A.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As part of a comprehensive research program, new tailings matrices are formulated of combinations of tailings and binder materials. The research program encompasses experimental and numerical analysis of the tailings matrices to investigate the feasibility of using them as construction materials in cold climates. This paper discusses a conceptual cost benefit analysis for the use of these new materials. It is shown here that the financial benefits of using the proposed new tailings matrices in terms of environmental sustainability are much higher when compared to normal sand matrices.

  5. Test anxiety inventory-State: Preliminary analysis of validity and reliability in psychology college students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Dominguez-Lara

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to examine the internal structure of the Test anxiety inventory-State (TAI-State in Spanish version. A sample of 125 college students from Lima (84.8% female between 18 and 31 years old (M = 22.51 was evaluated. The internal structure of the STAI was analyzed by a confirmatory factor analysis, evaluating three models: oblique, bifactor and unidimensional. The results indicate that a single dimension constitutes the STAI and there are coefficients of reliability with high magnitudes. In conclusion, the version studied shows favorable psychometric properties that support its use in Lima.

  6. Reliability Analysis and Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Redundant Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1998-01-01

    be included in the safety system and how partial safety factors can be calibrated. An example is presented illustrating how redundancy is taken into account in the safety system in e.g. the Danish codes. The example shows how partial safety factors can be calibrated to comply with the safety level......Redundancy is important to include in the design and analysis of structural systems. In most codes of practice redundancy is not directly taken into account. In the paper various definitions of a deterministic and reliability based redundancy measure are reviewed. It is described how reundancy can...

  7. Reliability And Maintenance Analysis Of CCTV Systems Used In Rail Transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siergiejczyk Mirosław

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available CCTV systems are widely used across plethora of industrial areas including transport, where their function is to support transport telematics systems. Among others, they are used to ensure travel safety. This paper presented a reliability and maintenance analysis of CCTV. It led to building a relationships graph and then Chapman–Kolmogorov system of equations was derived to describe it. Drawing on those equations, relationships for calculating probability of system staying in state of full ability SPZ, state of the impendency over safety SZB1 as well as state of unreliability of safety SB were derived.

  8. Application of Artificial Intelligence technology to the analysis and synthesis of reliable software systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Christian; Eckhardt, Dave

    1987-01-01

    The development of a methodology for the production of highly reliable software is one of the greatest challenges facing the computer industry. Meeting this challenge will undoubtably involve the integration of many technologies. This paper describes the use of Artificial Intelligence technologies in the automated analysis of the formal algebraic specifications of abstract data types. These technologies include symbolic execution of specifications using techniques of automated deduction and machine learning through the use of examples. On-going research into the role of knowledge representation and problem solving in the process of developing software is also discussed.

  9. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Quality Assurance Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. L. Smith; R. Nims; K. J. Kvarfordt; C. Wharton

    2008-08-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) is a software application developed for performing a complete probabilistic risk assessment using a personal computer running the Microsoft Windows operating system. SAPHIRE is primarily funded by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The role of the INL in this project is that of software developer and tester. This development takes place using formal software development procedures and is subject to quality assurance (QA) processes. The purpose of this document is to describe how the SAPHIRE software QA is performed for Version 6 and 7, what constitutes its parts, and limitations of those processes.

  10. Microcircuit Device Reliability. Digital Evaluation and Failure Analysis Data. Parts 1 and 2, Summer 1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    I I- = C # - g..-CL m0.JW f CL 00. C.J 06 CLL U 0) InvC0 A ~ L LA cu CLn t . a 4A If-.n C in~ Ln 0 to 4 . to 40 - 40404 ~4 jut0 C at Cw~- w LMJ ...IN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS CENTER BASIC TECIINOLOGY BIPOLAP OPERATIONAL TYPE TTL MANUFACTURER : PKG/ : SCF CL/ :DATE/ : TEST STRESS : SPEC. :NO. : DEVICE...00C 30OC : : 5164: 0: * : . : I : :SCyC N.E. S: : - :REVRIAS :100C : : 5164: -.68E 05 0. - . ± I . . : N.R. :: : -: : SCF EM :025C : : 5164: : 5

  11. Modeling and reliability analysis of three phase z-source AC-AC converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasad Hanuman

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the small signal modeling using the state space averaging technique and reliability analysis of a three-phase z-source ac-ac converter. By controlling the shoot-through duty ratio, it can operate in buck-boost mode and maintain desired output voltage during voltage sag and surge condition. It has faster dynamic response and higher efficiency as compared to the traditional voltage regulator. Small signal analysis derives different control transfer functions and this leads to design a suitable controller for a closed loop system during supply voltage variation. The closed loop system of the converter with a PID controller eliminates the transients in output voltage and provides steady state regulated output. The proposed model designed in the RT-LAB and executed in a field programming gate array (FPGA-based real-time digital simulator at a fixedtime step of 10 μs and a constant switching frequency of 10 kHz. The simulator was developed using very high speed integrated circuit hardware description language (VHDL, making it versatile and moveable. Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL simulation results are presented to justify the MATLAB simulation results during supply voltage variation of the three phase z-source ac-ac converter. The reliability analysis has been applied to the converter to find out the failure rate of its different components.

  12. A review of the evolution of human reliability analysis methods at nuclear industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Lécio N. de; Santos, Isaac José A. Luquetti dos; Carvalho, Paulo V.R., E-mail: lecionoliveira@gmail.com, E-mail: luquetti@ien.gov.br, E-mail: paulov@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-11-01

    This paper reviews the status of researches on the application of human reliability analysis methods at nuclear industry and its evolution along the years. Human reliability analysis (HRA) is one of the elements used in Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) and is performed as part of PSAs to quantify the likelihood that people will fail to take action, such as errors of omission and errors of commission. Although HRA may be used at lots of areas, the focus of this paper is to review the applicability of HRA methods along the years at nuclear industry, especially in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). An electronic search on CAPES Portal of Journals (A bibliographic database) was performed. This literature review covers original papers published since the first generation of HRA methods until the ones published on March 2017. A total of 94 papers were retrieved by the initial search and 13 were selected to be fully reviewed and for data extraction after the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, quality and suitability evaluation according to applicability at nuclear industry. Results point out that the methods from first generation are more used in practice than methods from second generation. This occurs because it is more concentrated towards quantification, in terms of success or failure of human action what make them useful for quantitative risk assessment to PSA. Although the second generation considers context and error of commission in human error prediction, they are not wider used in practice at nuclear industry to PSA. (author)

  13. Development of A Standard Method for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan

    2005-12-15

    According as the demand of risk-informed regulation and applications increase, the quality and reliability of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been more important. KAERI started a study to standardize the process and the rules of HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) which was known as a major contributor to the uncertainty of PSA. The study made progress as follows; assessing the level of quality of the HRAs in Korea and identifying the weaknesses of the HRAs, determining the requirements for developing a standard HRA method, developing the process and rules for quantifying human error probability. Since the risk-informed applications use the ASME and ANS PSA standard to ensure PSA quality, the standard HRA method was developed to meet the ASME and ANS HRA requirements with level of category II. The standard method was based on THERP and ASEP HRA that are widely used for conventional HRA. However, the method focuses on standardizing and specifying the analysis process, quantification rules and criteria to minimize the deviation of the analysis results caused by different analysts. Several HRA experts from different organizations in Korea participated in developing the standard method. Several case studies were interactively undertaken to verify the usability and applicability of the standard method.

  14. Development of A Standard Method for Human Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Won Dea; Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Jae Whan

    2005-12-15

    According as the demand of risk-informed regulation and applications increase, the quality and reliability of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been more important. KAERI started a study to standardize the process and the rules of HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) which was known as a major contributor to the uncertainty of PSA. The study made progress as follows; assessing the level of quality of the HRAs in Korea and identifying the weaknesses of the HRAs, determining the requirements for developing a standard HRA method, developing the process and rules for quantifying human error probability. Since the risk-informed applications use the ASME PSA standard to ensure PSA quality, the standard HRA method was developed to meet the ASME HRA requirements with level of category II. The standard method was based on THERP and ASEP HRA that are widely used for conventional HRA. However, the method focuses on standardizing and specifying the analysis process, quantification rules and criteria to minimize the deviation of the analysis results caused by different analysts. Several HRA experts from different organizations in Korea participated in developing the standard method. Several case studies were interactively undertaken to verify the usability and applicability of the standard method.

  15. Suitability review of FMEA and reliability analysis for digital plant protection system and digital engineered safety features actuation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, I. S.; Kim, T. K.; Kim, M. C.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Ryu, K. C. [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-11-15

    Of the many items that should be checked out during a review stage of the licensing application for the I and C system of Ulchin 5 and 6 units, this report relates to a suitability review of the reliability analysis of Digital Plant Protection System (DPPS) and Digital Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (DESFAS). In the reliability analysis performed by the system designer, ABB-CE, fault tree analysis was used as the main methods along with Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA). However, the present regulatory technique dose not allow the system reliability analysis and its results to be appropriately evaluated. Hence, this study was carried out focusing on the following four items ; development of general review items by which to check the validity of a reliability analysis, and the subsequent review of suitability of the reliability analysis for Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS L development of detailed review items by which to check the validity of an FMEA, and the subsequent review of suitability of the FMEA for Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS ; development of detailed review items by which to check the validity of a fault tree analysis, and the subsequent review of suitability of the fault tree for Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS ; an integrated review of the safety and reliability of the Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS based on the results of the various reviews above and also of a reliability comparison between the digital systems and the comparable analog systems, i.e., and analog Plant Protection System (PPS) and and analog Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (ESFAS). According to the review mentioned above, the reliability analysis of Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS generally satisfies the review requirements. However, some shortcomings of the analysis were identified in our review such that the assumed test periods for several equipment were not properly incorporated in the analysis, and failures of some equipment were not included in the

  16. Cost benefit analysis of waste compaction alternatives at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-11-01

    This report presents a cost benefit analysis of the potential procurement and operation of various solid waste compactors, or, of the use of commercial compaction services, for compaction of solid transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Hazardous Waste Management (HWM) facilities. The cost benefit analysis was conducted to determine if increased compaction capacity at HWM might afford the potential for significant waste volume reduction and annual savings in material, shipping, labor, and disposal costs. In the following cost benefit analysis, capital costs and recurring costs of increased HWM compaction capabilities are considered. Recurring costs such as operating and maintenance costs are estimated based upon detailed knowledge of system parameters. When analyzing the economic benefits of enhancing compaction capabilities, continued use of the existing HWM compaction units is included for comparative purposes. In addition, the benefits of using commercial compaction services instead of procuring a new compactor system are evaluated. 31 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  17. BENEFITS OF VIBRATION ANALYSIS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF EQUIPMENT IN HLW TANKS - 12341

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stefanko, D.; Herbert, J.

    2012-01-10

    Vibration analyses of equipment intended for use in the Savannah River Site (SRS) radioactive liquid waste storage tanks are performed during pre-deployment testing and has been demonstrated to be effective in reducing the life-cycle costs of the equipment. Benefits of using vibration analysis to identify rotating machinery problems prior to deployment in radioactive service will be presented in this paper. Problems encountered at SRS and actions to correct or lessen the severity of the problem are discussed. In short, multi-million dollar cost saving have been realized at SRS as a direct result of vibration analysis on existing equipment. Vibration analysis of equipment prior to installation can potentially reduce inservice failures, and increases reliability. High-level radioactive waste is currently stored in underground carbon steel waste tanks at the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site and at the Hanford Site, WA. Various types of rotating machinery (pumps and separations equipment) are used to manage and retrieve the tank contents. Installation, maintenance, and repair of these pumps and other equipment are expensive. In fact, costs to remove and replace a single pump can be as high as a half million dollars due to requirements for radioactive containment. Problems that lead to in-service maintenance and/or equipment replacement can quickly exceed the initial investment, increase radiological exposure, generate additional waste, and risk contamination of personnel and the work environment. Several different types of equipment are considered in this paper, but pumps provide an initial example for the use of vibration analysis. Long-shaft (45 foot long) and short-shaft (5-10 feet long) equipment arrangements are used for 25-350 horsepower slurry mixing and transfer pumps in the SRS HLW tanks. Each pump has a unique design, operating characteristics and associated costs, sometimes exceeding a million dollars. Vibration data are routinely

  18. Planning manual for energy resource development on Indian lands. Volume I. Benefit--cost analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-03-01

    Section II follows a brief introduction and is entitled ''Benefit-Cost Analysis Framework.'' The analytical framework deals with two major steps involved in assessing the pros and cons of energy resource development (or any other type of development). The first is to identify and describe the overall tribal resource planning and decision process. The second is to develop a detailed methodological approach to the assessment of the benefits and costs of energy development alternatives within the context of the tribe's overall planning process. Sections III, IV, and V present the application of the benefit-cost analysis methodology to coal; oil and gas; and uranium, oil shale, and geothermal development, respectively. The methodology creates hypothetical examples that illustrate realistic development opportunities for the majority of tribes that have significant reserves of one or more of the resources that may be economic to develop.

  19. Improving air pollution control policy in China--A perspective based on cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jinglei; Yuan, Zengwei; Liu, Xuewei; Xia, Xiaoming; Huang, Xianjin; Dong, Zhanfeng

    2016-02-01

    To mitigate serious air pollution, the State Council of China promulgated the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013. To verify the feasibility and validity of industrial energy-saving and emission-reduction policies in the action plan, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis of implementing these policies in 31 provinces for the period of 2013 to 2017. We also completed a scenario analysis in this study to assess the cost-effectiveness of different measures within the energy-saving and the emission-reduction policies individually. The data were derived from field surveys, statistical yearbooks, government documents, and published literatures. The results show that total cost and total benefit are 118.39 and 748.15 billion Yuan, respectively, and the estimated benefit-cost ratio is 6.32 in the S3 scenario. For all the scenarios, these policies are cost-effective and the eastern region has higher satisfactory values. Furthermore, the end-of-pipe scenario has greater emission reduction potential than energy-saving scenario. We also found that gross domestic product and population are significantly correlated with the benefit-cost ratio value through the regression analysis of selected possible influencing factors. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that benefit-cost ratio value is more sensitive to unit emission-reduction cost, unit subsidy, growth rate of gross domestic product, and discount rate among all the parameters. Compared with other provinces, the benefit-cost ratios of Beijing and Tianjin are more sensitive to changes of unit subsidy than unit emission-reduction cost. These findings may have significant implications for improving China's air pollution prevention policy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Cost-benefit analysis of screening for esophageal and gastric cardiac cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wen-Qiang; Yang, Chun-Xia; Lu, Si-Han; Yang, Juan; Li, Bian-Yun; Lian, Shi-Yong; Qiao, You-Lin

    2011-03-01

    In 2005, a program named "Early Detection and Early Treatment of Esophageal and Cardiac Cancer" (EDETEC) was initiated in China. A total of 8279 residents aged 40-69 years old were recruited into the EDETEC program in Linzhou of Henan Province between 2005 and 2008. Howerer, the cost-benefit of the EDETEC program is not very clear yet. We conducted herein a cost-benefit analysis of screening for esophageal and cardiac cancer. The assessed costs of the EDETEC program included screening costs for each subject, as well as direct and indirect treatment costs for esophageal and cardiac severe dysplasia and cancer detected by screening. The assessed benefits of this program included the saved treatment costs, both direct and indirect, on esophageal and cardiac cancer, as well as the value of prolonged life due to screening, as determined by the human capital approach. The results showed the screening cost of finding esophageal and cardiac severe dysplasia or cancer ranged from RMB 2707 to RMB 4512, and the total cost on screening and treatment was RMB 13 115-14 920. The cost benefit was RMB 58 944-155 110 (the saved treatment cost, RMB 17 730, plus the value of prolonged life, RMB 41 214-137 380). The ratio of benefit-to-cost (BCR) was 3.95-11.83. Our results suggest that EDETEC has a high benefit-to-cost ratio in China and could be instituted into high risk areas of China.

  1. Development of the Comprehensive Observations of Proprioception (COP): Validity, Reliability, and Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, Erna Imperatore; Bodison, Stefanie; Chang, Megan C.; Reinoso, Gustavo

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE We developed an observational tool, the Comprehensive Observations of Proprioception (COP), for identifying proprioceptive processing issues in children with developmental disabilities. METHOD Development of the COP underwent three phases. First, we developed items representing proprioceptive functions on the basis of an extensive literature review and consultation with occupational therapists. We then established interrater reliability and content, construct, and criterion validity. Finally, we completed a factor analysis of COP ratings of 130 children with known developmental disabilities. RESULTS Adequate validity and reliability were established. Factor analysis revealed a four-factor model that explained the underlying structure of the measure as it was hypothesized. CONCLUSION The COP is a valid criterion-referenced short observational tool that structures the clinician’s observations by linking a child’s behaviors to areas identified in the literature as relevant to proprioceptive processing. It takes 15 min to administer and can be used in a variety of contexts, such as the home, clinic, and school. PMID:23106989

  2. [Examination of safety improvement by failure record analysis that uses reliability engineering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kyoichi; Sato, Hisaya; Abe, Yoshihisa; Ishimori, Yoshiyuki; Hirano, Hiroshi; Higashimura, Kyoji; Amauchi, Hiroshi; Yanakita, Takashi; Kikuchi, Kei; Nakazawa, Yasuo

    2010-08-20

    How the maintenance checks of the medical treatment system, including start of work check and the ending check, was effective for preventive maintenance and the safety improvement was verified. In this research, date on the failure of devices in multiple facilities was collected, and the data of the trouble repair record was analyzed by the technique of reliability engineering. An analysis of data on the system (8 general systems, 6 Angio systems, 11 CT systems, 8 MRI systems, 8 RI systems, and the radiation therapy system 9) used in eight hospitals was performed. The data collection period assumed nine months from April to December 2008. Seven items were analyzed. (1) Mean time between failures (MTBF) (2) Mean time to repair (MTTR) (3) Mean down time (MDT) (4) Number found by check in morning (5) Failure generation time according to modality. The classification of the breakdowns per device, the incidence, and the tendency could be understood by introducing reliability engineering. Analysis, evaluation, and feedback on the failure generation history are useful to keep downtime to a minimum and to ensure safety.

  3. Study on Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) Quantification Method in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ar Ryum; Jang, Inseok Jang; Seong, Poong Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jinkyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The purpose of HRA implementation is 1) to achieve the human factor engineering (HFE) design goal of providing operator interfaces that will minimize personnel errors and 2) to conduct an integrated activity to support probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For these purposes, various HRA methods have been developed such as technique for human error rate prediction (THERP), simplified plant analysis risk human reliability assessment (SPAR-H), cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and so on. In performing HRA, such conditions that influence human performances have been represented via several context factors called performance shaping factors (PSFs). PSFs are aspects of the human's individual characteristics, environment, organization, or task that specifically decrements or improves human performance, thus respectively increasing or decreasing the likelihood of human errors. Most HRA methods evaluate the weightings of PSFs by expert judgment and explicit guidance for evaluating the weighting is not provided. It has been widely known that the performance of the human operator is one of the critical factors to determine the safe operation of NPPs. HRA methods have been developed to identify the possibility and mechanism of human errors. In performing HRA methods, the effect of PSFs which may increase or decrease human error should be investigated. However, the effect of PSFs were estimated by expert judgment so far. Accordingly, in order to estimate the effect of PSFs objectively, the quantitative framework to estimate PSFs by using PSF profiles is introduced in this paper.

  4. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES IN REALIZING AND APPLYING COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR THE INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pelin Andrei

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Cost-benefit analysis represents the most frequent technique used for a rational allocation of resources. This modality of evaluating the expenditure programs is an attempt to measure the costs and gains of a community as a result of running the evaluated

  5. Adaption to Extreme Rainfall with Open Urban Drainage System: An Integrated Hydrological Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2013-01-01

    with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas...

  6. A state-of-the-art multi-criteria model for drug benefit-risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, T.; Hillege, H.L.; Buskens, E.; Postmus, D.

    2010-01-01

    Drug benefit-risk analysis is based on firm clinical evidence related to various safety and efficacy outcomes, such as tolerability, treatment response, and adverse events. In this paper, we propose a new approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account this

  7. An assessment of interventions for improving communication and trust in cost benefit analysis processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beukers, E.; Bertolini, L.; te Brömmelstroet, M.

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation literature suggests that assessments of integrated transport plans should be an inclusive dialogue, for which it is crucial that participants communicate with and trust each other. However, cost benefit analysis (CBA) of integrated transport plans is often characterized by communication

  8. Vehicle technologies heavy vehicle program : FY 2008 benefits analysis, methodology and results --- final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, M.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering

    2008-02-29

    This report describes the approach to estimating the benefits and analysis results for the Heavy Vehicle Technologies activities of the Vehicle Technologies (VT) Program of EERE. The scope of the effort includes: (1) Characterizing baseline and advanced technology vehicles for Class 3-6 and Class 7 and 8 trucks, (2) Identifying technology goals associated with the DOE EERE programs, (3) Estimating the market potential of technologies that improve fuel efficiency and/or use alternative fuels, and (4) Determining the petroleum and greenhouse gas emissions reductions associated with the advanced technologies. In FY 08 the Heavy Vehicles program continued its involvement with various sources of energy loss as compared to focusing more narrowly on engine efficiency and alternative fuels. These changes are the result of a planning effort that first occurred during FY 04 and was updated in the past year. (Ref. 1) This narrative describes characteristics of the heavy truck market as they relate to the analysis, a description of the analysis methodology (including a discussion of the models used to estimate market potential and benefits), and a presentation of the benefits estimated as a result of the adoption of the advanced technologies. The market penetrations are used as part of the EERE-wide integrated analysis to provide final benefit estimates reported in the FY08 Budget Request. The energy savings models are utilized by the VT program for internal project management purposes.

  9. A study on cost-benefit analysis and development of numerical guideline for the radiation exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Chang Sun; Song, Jae Hyuk; Son, Ki Yoon; Park, Moon Soo; Kim, Chong Uk [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-06-15

    By ALARA, radiation protection should be achieved so that radiation exposure should be kept in reasonably low level considering the economical and social factors of the society. But it is difficult to apply this principle practically due to the qualitative properties of the factors and the ambiguity of the principle itself. To resolve the problems, the decision aiding techniques are needed which can quantify the factors used in decision making. These factors include the effects of radiation on body and economical and social factors. The cost-benefit analysis is the most representative decision aiding technique. The scopes and contents of the first period of this study are as follows: the merits and demerits of several methods of cost-benefit analysis are investigated and the improvement is provided, the cost data of the radioactive waste systems are derived which can be used in practical cost-benefit analysis, the decision making method is established on the basis of ALARA procedures, safety regulatory guides for cost-benefit analysis are provided.

  10. General Education Default and Student Benefit in Inclusive Learning Environments: An Analysis for School Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menard, Lauren A.

    2011-01-01

    A contextual analysis of the general education default and student benefit is presented from the perspective of school-based compliance with federal mandates from IDEIA [Individuals with Disabilities Education Improvement Act] of 2004. A goal was to inform school administrators striving to develop and maintain effective, inclusive learning…

  11. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L.; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-01-01

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multicriteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug

  12. Communicating uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis : A cognitive psychological perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mouter, N.; Holleman, M.; Calvert, S.C.; Annema, J.A.

    2013-01-01

    Based on a cognitive psychological theory, this paper aims to improve the communication of uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis. The theory is based on different cognitive-personality and cognitive-social psychological constructs that may help explain individual differences in the processing of

  13. Dancing on the Bottom Line: An Unruly Cost-Benefit Analysis of Three Academic Development Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sword, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article offers an unconventional cost-benefit analysis of three academic development initiatives at a large Australasian university: a three-day foundation course for new academics, a series of one-on-one teaching consultations and a two-year postgraduate certificate program. Weaving together qualitative, quantitative and arts-based…

  14. Cost-benefit analysis of hybrid wind-solar power generation by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOMER power optimization software for evaluation of design and performance of both off-grid and gridconnected power systems has been applied for cost-benefit analysis of a wind-solar hybrid power generation system. Comparison was also made with the cost per kilowatt of grid power supply. The hybrid system had a ...

  15. The Benefits of Relationship Lending in a Cross-Country Context : A Meta-Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V. Kysucky (Vlado); L. Norden (Lars)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractRelationship lending helps reduce asymmetric information, which potentially creates benefits for borrowers. However, empirical evidence is mixed. We conduct a meta-analysis to summarize and explain the heterogeneity in the results in the literature using hand-collected information from

  16. Real Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Needed in American Public Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoneberg, Bert D.

    2015-01-01

    Public school critics often point to rising expenditures and relatively flat test scores to justify their school reform agendas. The claims are flawed because their analyses fail to account for the difference in data types between dollars (ratio) and test scores (interval). A cost-benefit analysis using dollars as a common metric for both costs…

  17. 76 FR 65769 - Airport Improvement Program: Modifications to Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) Threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-24

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Airport Improvement Program: Modifications to Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA... Airport Improvement Program (AIP) discretionary funds. On December 16, 2010, the FAA issued a Notice of... which BCAs are required from $5 million to $10 million in Airport Improvement Program (AIP...

  18. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation, Dallas benefit-cost analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) for the United States : Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the Dallas U.S. 75 Integrated Corridor : Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstration. The IC...

  19. Evaluating Intangible Outcomes: Using Multiattribute Utility Analysis to Compare the Benefits and Costs of Social Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selameab, Tehout; Yeh, Stuart S.

    2008-01-01

    Increasingly, program managers are required to evaluate programs with multiple outcomes against costs. This is difficult when program outcomes are not easily translated into a common metric. This article compares cost benefit analysis with Multiple Attribute Utility Technology and discusses the application of judgment in both analytical…

  20. A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, E Jane

    2011-10-01

    In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

  1. Age 26 Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Child-Parent Center Early Education Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Arthur J.; Temple, Judy A.; White, Barry A. B.; Ou, Suh-Ruu; Robertson, Dylan L.

    2011-01-01

    Using data collected up to age 26 in the Chicago Longitudinal Study, this cost-benefit analysis of the Child-Parent Centers (CPC) is the first for a sustained publicly funded early intervention. The program provides services for low-income families beginning at age 3 in 20 school sites. Kindergarten and school-age services are provided up to age 9…

  2. Cost-benefit analysis of establishing and operating radiation oncology services in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eunkyoung; Cho, Yoon-Min; Kwon, Soonman; Park, Kunhee

    2017-10-01

    Rising demand for services of cancer patients has been recognised by the Government of Fiji as a national health priority. Increasing attention has been paid to the lack of service of radiation therapy or radiotherapy in Fiji. This study aims to estimate and compare the costs and benefits of introducing radiation oncology services in Fiji from the societal perspective. Time horizon for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was 15 years from 2021 to 2035. The benefits and costs were converted to the present values of 2016. Estimates for the CBA model were taken from previous studies and expert opinions and data obtained from field visits to Fiji in January 2016. Sensitivity analyses with changing assumptions were undertaken. The estimated net benefit, applying the national minimum wage (NMW) to measure monetary value for life-year gained, was -31,624,421 FJD with 0.69 of benefit-cost (B/C) ratio. If gross national income (GNI) per capita was used for the value of life years, net benefit was 3,975,684 FJD (B/C ratio: 1.04). With a pessimistic scenario, establishing the center appeared to be not cost-beneficial, and the net benefit was -53,634,682 FJD (B/C ratio: 0.46); net benefit with an optimistic scenario was estimated 23,178,189 FJD (B/C ratio: 1.20). Based on the CBA results from using GNI per capita instead of the NMW, this project would be cost-beneficial. Introducing a radiation oncology center in Fiji would have potential impacts on financial sustainability, financial protection, and accessibility and equity of the health system. Copyright © 2017 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. The development of a public optometry system in Mozambique: a Cost Benefit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Stephen; Naidoo, Kovin; Harris, Geoff; Bilotto, Luigi; Ferrão, Jorge; Loughman, James

    2014-09-23

    The economic burden of uncorrected refractive error (URE) is thought to be high in Mozambique, largely as a consequence of the lack of resources and systems to tackle this largely avoidable problem. The Mozambique Eyecare Project (MEP) has established the first optometry training and human resource deployment initiative to address the burden of URE in Lusophone Africa. The nature of the MEP programme provides the opportunity to determine, using Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), whether investing in the establishment and delivery of a comprehensive system for optometry human resource development and public sector deployment is economically justifiable for Lusophone Africa. A CBA methodology was applied across the period 2009-2049. Costs associated with establishing and operating a school of optometry, and a programme to address uncorrected refractive error, were included. Benefits were calculated using a human capital approach to valuing sight. Disability weightings from the Global Burden of Disease study were applied. Costs were subtracted from benefits to provide the net societal benefit, which was discounted to provide the net present value using a 3% discount rate. Using the most recently published disability weightings, the potential exists, through the correction of URE in 24.3 million potentially economically productive persons, to achieve a net present value societal benefit of up to $1.1 billion by 2049, at a Benefit-Cost ratio of 14:1. When CBA assumptions are varied as part of the sensitivity analysis, the results suggest the societal benefit could lie in the range of $649 million to $9.6 billion by 2049. This study demonstrates that a programme designed to address the burden of refractive error in Mozambique is economically justifiable in terms of the increased productivity that would result due to its implementation.

  4. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: food microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnússon, S H; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Loveren, H van; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    Over the past years benefit-risk analysis (BRA) in relation to foods and food ingredients has gained much attention; in Europe and worldwide. BRA relating to food microbiology is however a relatively new field of research. Microbiological risk assessment is well defined but assessment of microbial benefits and the weighing of benefits and risk has not been systematically addressed. In this paper the state of the art in benefit-risk analysis in food microbiology is presented, with a brief overview of microbiological food safety practices. The quality and safety of foods is commonly best preserved by delaying the growth of spoilage bacteria and contamination by bacterial pathogens. However, microorganisms in food can be both harmful and beneficial. Many microorganisms are integral to various food production processes e.g. the production of beer, wine and various dairy products. Moreover, the use of some microorganisms in the production of fermented foods are often claimed to have beneficial effects on food nutrition and consumer health. Furthermore, food safety interventions leading to reduced public exposure to foodborne pathogens can be regarded as benefits. The BRA approach integrates an independent assessment of both risks and benefits and weighs the two using a common currency. Recently, a number of initiatives have been launched in the field of food and nutrition to address the formulation of the benefit-risk assessment approach. BRA has recently been advocated by EFSA for the public health management of food and food ingredients; as beneficial and adverse chemicals can often be found within the same foods and even the same ingredients. These recent developments in the scoping of BRA could be very relevant for food microbiological issues. BRA could become a valuable methodology to support evaluations and decision making regarding microbiological food safety and public health, supplementing other presently available policy making and administrative tools for

  5. Adapting Human Reliability Analysis from Nuclear Power to Oil and Gas Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-09-01

    ABSTRACT: Human reliability analysis (HRA), as currently used in risk assessments, largely derives its methods and guidance from application in the nuclear energy domain. While there are many similarities be-tween nuclear energy and other safety critical domains such as oil and gas, there remain clear differences. This paper provides an overview of HRA state of the practice in nuclear energy and then describes areas where refinements to the methods may be necessary to capture the operational context of oil and gas. Many key distinctions important to nuclear energy HRA such as Level 1 vs. Level 2 analysis may prove insignifi-cant for oil and gas applications. On the other hand, existing HRA methods may not be sensitive enough to factors like the extensive use of digital controls in oil and gas. This paper provides an overview of these con-siderations to assist in the adaptation of existing nuclear-centered HRA methods to the petroleum sector.

  6. Reliability Analysis-Based Numerical Calculation of Metal Structure of Bridge Crane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjun Meng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The study introduced a finite element model of DQ75t-28m bridge crane metal structure and made finite element static analysis to obtain the stress response of the dangerous point of metal structure in the most extreme condition. The simulated samples of the random variable and the stress of the dangerous point were successfully obtained through the orthogonal design. Then, we utilized BP neural network nonlinear mapping function trains to get the explicit expression of stress in response to the random variable. Combined with random perturbation theory and first-order second-moment (FOSM method, the study analyzed the reliability and its sensitivity of metal structure. In conclusion, we established a novel method for accurately quantitative analysis and design of bridge crane metal structure.

  7. Parallel Hybrid Gas-Electric Geared Turbofan Engine Conceptual Design and Benefits Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lents, Charles; Hardin, Larry; Rheaume, Jonathan; Kohlman, Lee

    2016-01-01

    The conceptual design of a parallel gas-electric hybrid propulsion system for a conventional single aisle twin engine tube and wing vehicle has been developed. The study baseline vehicle and engine technology are discussed, followed by results of the hybrid propulsion system sizing and performance analysis. The weights analysis for the electric energy storage & conversion system and thermal management system is described. Finally, the potential system benefits are assessed.

  8. A state-of-the-art multi-criteria model for drug benefit-risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Tervonen, T. (Tuomas); Hillege, H.L.; Buskens, E.; Postmus, D.

    2010-01-01

    Drug benefit-risk analysis is based on firm clinical evidence related to various safety and efficacy outcomes, such as tolerability, treatment response, and adverse events. In this paper, we propose a new approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account this evidence. Our approach is based on the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantif...

  9. Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (RDC/TMD): Development of Image Analysis Criteria and Examiner Reliability for Image Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mansur; Hollender, Lars; Odont; Anderson, Quentin; Kartha, Krishnan; Ohrbach, Richard K.; Truelove, Edmond L.; John, Mike T.; Schiffman, Eric L.

    2011-01-01

    Introduction As a part of a multi-site RDC/TMD Validation Project, comprehensive TMJ diagnostic criteria were developed for image analysis using panoramic radiography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and computed tomography (CT). Methods Inter-examiner reliability was estimated using the kappa (k) statistic, and agreement between rater pairs was characterized by overall, positive, and negative percent agreement. CT was the reference standard for assessing validity of other imaging modalities for detecting osteoarthritis (OA). Results For the radiological diagnosis of OA, reliability of the three examiners was poor for panoramic radiography (k = 0.16), fair for MRI (k = 0.46), and close to the threshold for excellent for CT (k = 0.71). Using MRI, reliability was excellent for diagnosing disc displacements (DD) with reduction (k = 0.78) and for DD without reduction (k = 0.94), and was good for effusion (k = 0.64). Overall percent agreement for pair-wise ratings was ≥ 82% for all conditions. Positive percent agreement for diagnosing OA was 19% for panoramic radiography, 59% for MRI, and 84% for CT. Using MRI, positive percent agreement for diagnoses of any DD was 95% and for effusion was 81%. Negative percent agreement was ≥ 88% for all conditions. Compared to CT, panoramic radiography and MRI had poor to marginal sensitivity, respectively, but excellent specificity, in detecting OA. Conclusion Comprehensive image analysis criteria for RDC/TMD Validation Project were developed, which can reliably be employed for assessing OA using CT, and for disc position and effusion using MRI. PMID:19464658

  10. Reliability evaluation and analysis of sugarcane 7000 series harvesters in sugarcane harvesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Najafi

    2015-09-01

    hours were used. Usually, two methods are usedfor machine reliability modeling. The first is Pareto analysis and the second is statistical modeling of failure distributions (Barabadi and Kumar, 2007. For failures distribution modeling data need to be found, that are independent and identically (iid distributed or not. For this, trend test and serial correlation tests are used. If the data has a trend, those are not iid and its parameters are computed from the power law process. For the data that does not havea trend, serial correlation testare performed. If the correlation coefficient is less than 0.05 the data is not iid. Therefore, its parameters reach via branching poison process or other similar methods; if the correlation coefficient is more than 0.05, the data are iid. Therefore, the classical statistical methods will be used for reliability modeling. Trend test results are compared with statistical parameter. A test for serial correlation was also done by plotting the ith TBF against the (i-1th TBF, i ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; n: If the plotted points are randomly scattered without any pattern, it can be interpreted that there is no correlation in general among the TBFs data and the data is independent. To continue, one must choose as the best fit distribution for TBF data. Few tests can be used for best fit distribution that include chi squared test and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S test. Chi squared test is not valid when the data are less than 50. Therefore, when the TBF data are less than 50, K-S test must be used. Hence, the K-S test can be used for each TBF data numbers. When the failure distribution has been determined, the reliability model may be computed by equation (2.Results and discussion: Results of trend analysis for TBF data of sugarcane harvester machines showed that the calculated statistics U for all machines was more than chi squared value that was extracted fromthe chi square table with 2 (n-1 degrees of freedom and 5 percent level of significance. Hence

  11. Probabilistic Analysis of Passive Safety System Reliability in Advanced Small Modular Reactors: Methodologies and Lessons Learned

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia; Grelle, Austin

    2015-06-28

    Many advanced small modular reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended due to deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize with a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper describes the most promising options: mechanistic techniques, which share qualities with conventional probabilistic methods, and simulation-based techniques, which explicitly account for time-dependent processes. The primary intention of this paper is to describe the strengths and weaknesses of each methodology and highlight the lessons learned while applying the two techniques while providing high-level results. This includes the global benefits and deficiencies of the methods and practical problems encountered during the implementation of each technique.

  12. Anaerobic Capacityestimated in A Single Supramaximal Test in Cycling: Validity and Reliability Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyagi, Willian Eiji; de Poli, Rodrigo de Araujo Bonetti; Papoti, Marcelo; Bertuzzi, Romulo; Zagatto, Alessandro Moura

    2017-02-13

    The aim was to verify the validity (i.e., study A) and reliability (i.e., study B) of the alternative maximal accumulated oxygen deficit determined using onlya supramaximal effort (MAODALT)to estimate anaerobic capacity [i.e., estimated by the gold standard maximal accumulated oxygen deficit method (MAOD)] during cycling. In study A, the effects of supramaximal intensities on MAODALT and the comparison with the MAOD were investigated in fourteen active subjects (26 ± 6 years). In study B, the test-retest reliability was investigated, where fourteen male amateur cyclists (29 ± 5 years) performed the MAODALT twice at 115% of the intensity associated to maximal oxygen uptake (). MAODALT determined at 130 and 150% of was lower than MAOD (p ≤ 0.048), but no differences between MAODALT determined at 100, 105, 110, 115, 120 and 140% of (3.58 ± 0.53L; 3.58 ± 0.59L; 3.53 ± 0.52L; 3.48 ± 0.72L; 3.52 ± 0.61L and 3.46 ± 0.69L, respectively) with MAOD (3.99 ± 0.64L). The MAODALT determined from the intensities between 110 and 120% of presented the better agreement and concordance with MAOD. In the test-retest, the MAODALT was not different (p > 0.05), showed high reproducibility when expressed in absolute values (ICC = 0.96, p < 0.01), and a good level of agreement in the Bland-Altman plot analysis (mean differences ± CI95%:-0.16 ± 0.53L). Thus, the MAODALT seems to be valid and reliable to assess anaerobic capacity in cycling.

  13. Guidebook in using Cost Benefit Analysis and strategic environmental assessment for environmental planning in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Environmental planning in China may benefit from greater use of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) methodologies. We provide guidance on using these methodologies. Part I and II show the principles behind the methodologies as well as their theoretical structure. Part III demonstrates the methodologies in action in a range of different good practice examples. The case studies and theoretical expositions are intended to teach by way of example as well as by understanding the principles, and to help planners use the methodologies as correctly as possible.(auth)

  14. Cost-benefit analysis of improved air quality in an office building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Djukanovic, R.; Wargocki, Pawel; Fanger, Povl Ole

    2002-01-01

    A cost-benefit analysis of measures to improve air quality in an existing air-conditoned office building (11581 m2, 864 employees) was carried out for hot, temperate and cold climates and for two operating modes: Variable Air Volume (VAV) with economizer; and Constant Air Volume (CAV) with heat...... productivity for every 10% reduction in the proportion of occupants entering a space who are dissatisfied with the air quality. With this assumption, the annual benefit due to improved air quality was always at least 10 times higher than the increase in annual energy and maintenance costs. The payback time...

  15. Establishing guidance for the review of human reliability analysis in PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reer, B.; Dang, V.N.; Hirschberg, S.; Meyer, P

    2000-07-01

    PSI was commissioned to develop Guidelines for the Regulatory Review of the Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) within Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) for nuclear power plants. In the Guidelines, HRA quality is addressed in terms of 97 indicators. Each indicator is formulated as a question, described as a specific feature of the analysis, and then explained in detail. Two analysis stages are distinguished: the selection of the human errors to be modelled, and their quantification to determine their impact on the core damage frequency. Review findings are grouped under two headings: transparency and adequacy. An analysis is 'transparent' if an externally qualified person is able to reproduce the analysis results, and 'adequate' if such results reflect the plant-specific conditions related to safety. To allocate resources efficiently, the review is structured in two phases: (1) The Quick Review, which clarifies whether the HRA has a fundamental deficiency and, furthermore, if it points to information needs and areas of emphasis for the detailed review, and (2) The Detailed Review, which results in well-grounded findings, based on extended examinations and close-plant contacts. (authors)

  16. The Economic Implications of a Reusable Flexible Digital Ureteroscope: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Christopher J; McAdams, Sean B; Abdul-Muhsin, Haidar; Lim, Victoria M; Nunez-Nateras, Rafael; Tyson, Mark D; Humphreys, Mitchell R

    2017-03-01

    Questions remain regarding the durability and longevity of flexible ureteroscopes. The objective of this study was to estimate the potential economic benefits of single use, flexible digital ureteroscopes compared to our recent experience with reusable flexible digital ureteroscopes using cost-benefit analysis. Ureteroscopic procedures were prospectively recorded over the 12-month period of February 2014 to February 2015. All flexible ureteroscopies were performed using Flex X(C) digital ureteroscopes (Karl Storz Endoscopy-America, El Segundo, California). Cost assessment was based on the original purchasing cost and repair-exchange fees divided by the number of cases. An algorithm was created to include per case reprocessing costs and calculate the benefit-to-cost ratio. This cost was compared to potential costs of the LithoVue™, a single use digital ureteroscope. In 160 cases a flexible reusable ureteroscope was used. There was damage to 11 ureteroscopes during this time with an average of 12.5 cases to failure. Excluding original purchasing costs, the cost analysis revealed an amortized cost of $848.10 per use. After 99 ureteroscope cases the cost-benefit analysis favored reusable ureteroscopes compared to disposable ureteroscopes. Digital ureteroscopes are the latest trend in the evolution of endourology. It appears that a disposable ureteroscope may be cost beneficial at centers with a lower case volume per year. However, institutions with a high volume of cases may find reusable ureteroscopes cost beneficial. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Reproducibility and reliability of semen analysis in youths at risk for infertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christman, Matthew S; Kraft, Kate H; Tasian, Gregory E; Zderic, Stephen A; Kolon, Thomas F

    2013-08-01

    There are few normative data on semen analyses in youths at risk for but not presenting with infertility. Standard practice among infertility specialists includes evaluation of 2 separate semen samples, given the degree of within subject variability. We hypothesized that males transitioning from pediatric to adult care who are at risk for infertility would similarly have this variability. We retrospectively reviewed patients with a history of cryptorchidism or varicocele who submitted 2 semen samples for evaluation of fertility potential. The within subject coefficient of variation and intraclass correlation coefficient were calculated for each semen parameter to evaluate reproducibility and reliability, respectively. A total of 79 subjects were studied. Mean ± SD age was 18.8 ± 1.2 years (range 17.8 to 24.7). The within subject coefficient of variation was high for each semen parameter, ranging from 36% for volume and motility to 82% for total motile count. Intraclass correlation coefficient for a single semen analysis ranged from 0.55 for motility to 0.88 for total count. Intraclass correlation coefficient for total motile count was 0.78 (95% CI 0.67-0.85), consistent with substantial reliability. Although we observed within patient variability of individual semen analysis parameters, overall there was substantial agreement between consecutive semen analyses in this population at risk for infertility, particularly regarding total motile count, which is the most important determinant of fertility from a semen analysis. Therefore, it is possible to appropriately classify some young men based on the result of a single measurement as they transition from pediatric to adult care. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Human reliability analysis data obtainment through fuzzy logic in nuclear plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nascimento, C.S. do, E-mail: claudio.souza@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), Av. Professor Lineu Prestes 2468, 05508-000 Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Mesquita, R.N. de, E-mail: rnavarro@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN - SP), Av. Professor Lineu Prestes 2242, 05508-000 Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2012-09-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Human Error Probability estimates from operator's reactions to emergency situations. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Human Reliability Analysis input data obtainment through fuzzy logic inference. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Performance Shaping Factors evaluation influence level onto the operator's actions. - Abstract: Human error has been recognized as an important factor for many industrial and nuclear accidents occurrence. Human error data is scarcely available for different reasons among which, lapses in historical database registry methodology is an important one. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is an usual tool employed to estimate the probability that an operator will reasonably perform a system required task in required time without degrading the system. This meta-analysis requires specific Human Error Probability estimates for most of its procedure. This work obtains Human Error Probability (HEP) estimates from operator's actions in response to emergency situations hypothesis on Research Reactor IEA-R1 from IPEN, Brazil. Through this proposed methodology HRA should be able to be performed even with shortage of related human error statistical data. A Performance Shaping Factors (PSF's) evaluation in order to classify and estimate their influence level onto the operator's actions and to determine their actual state over the plant was also done. Both HEP estimation and PSF evaluation were done based on expert judgment using interviews and questionnaires. Expert group was established based on selected IEA-R1 operators, and their evaluation were put into a knowledge representation system which used linguistic variables and group evaluation values that were obtained through Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Set theory. HEP obtained values show good agreement with literature published data corroborating the proposed methodology as a good alternative to be used on HRA.

  19. Morbidity, outcomes and cost-benefit analysis of wildlife rehabilitation in Catalonia (Spain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Angel Molina-López

    Full Text Available There are few studies of careful examination of wildlife casualties in Wildlife Rehabilitation Centers. These studies are essential for detecting menaces to wild species and providing objective criteria about cost-benefit of treatments in those centers. The release rate is considered the main outcome indicator, but other parameters such as length of stay at the center and a cost-benefit index expressed as number of released animals per euro and day, could be used as reliable estimators of the rehabilitation costs.A retrospective study based on 54772 admissions recorded from 1995-2013 in the database of the Wildlife Rehabilitation Center of Torreferrussa (Catalonia, NW Spain assessed the morbidity, outcomes and cost-benefits of the rehabilitation practices.Three hundred and two species were included: 232 birds (n = 48633, 37 mammals (n = 3293, 20 reptiles (n = 2705 and 13 amphibians (n = 141. The most frequent causes of admission were: 39.8% confiscation of protected species (89.4% passerines, 31.8% orphaned young animals (35.3% swifts, 21.7% diurnal raptors and owls and 17.4% trauma casualties (46.7% raptors and owls. The highest proportion of releases was found in the captivity confiscation category [87.4% passerines (median time of stay: 12 days], followed by the orphaned category [78% owls (66 days, 76.5% diurnal birds of prey (43 days, 75.6% hedgehogs (49 days, 52.7% swifts (19 days and 52% bats (55 days]. For the trauma group, 46.8% of releases were hedgehogs (44 days and 25.6% owls (103 days. As regards the cost-benefit index, the trauma casualties and infectious diseases had the worse values with 1.3 and 1.4 released animals/euro/day respectively, and were particularly low in raptors, waders, marine birds and chiroptera. On the contrary, captivity (4.6 and misplacement (4.1 had the best index, particulary in amphibian, reptiles and passerines.Cost-benefit studies including the release rate, the time of stay at the center and the cost-benefit

  20. Morbidity, outcomes and cost-benefit analysis of wildlife rehabilitation in Catalonia (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-López, Rafael Angel; Mañosa, Santi; Torres-Riera, Alex; Pomarol, Manel; Darwich, Laila

    2017-01-01

    There are few studies of careful examination of wildlife casualties in Wildlife Rehabilitation Centers. These studies are essential for detecting menaces to wild species and providing objective criteria about cost-benefit of treatments in those centers. The release rate is considered the main outcome indicator, but other parameters such as length of stay at the center and a cost-benefit index expressed as number of released animals per euro and day, could be used as reliable estimators of the rehabilitation costs. A retrospective study based on 54772 admissions recorded from 1995-2013 in the database of the Wildlife Rehabilitation Center of Torreferrussa (Catalonia, NW Spain) assessed the morbidity, outcomes and cost-benefits of the rehabilitation practices. Three hundred and two species were included: 232 birds (n = 48633), 37 mammals (n = 3293), 20 reptiles (n = 2705) and 13 amphibians (n = 141). The most frequent causes of admission were: 39.8% confiscation of protected species (89.4% passerines), 31.8% orphaned young animals (35.3% swifts, 21.7% diurnal raptors and owls) and 17.4% trauma casualties (46.7% raptors and owls). The highest proportion of releases was found in the captivity confiscation category [87.4% passerines (median time of stay: 12 days)], followed by the orphaned category [78% owls (66 days), 76.5% diurnal birds of prey (43 days), 75.6% hedgehogs (49 days), 52.7% swifts (19 days) and 52% bats (55 days)]. For the trauma group, 46.8% of releases were hedgehogs (44 days) and 25.6% owls (103 days). As regards the cost-benefit index, the trauma casualties and infectious diseases had the worse values with 1.3 and 1.4 released animals/euro/day respectively, and were particularly low in raptors, waders, marine birds and chiroptera. On the contrary, captivity (4.6) and misplacement (4.1) had the best index, particulary in amphibian, reptiles and passerines. Cost-benefit studies including the release rate, the time of stay at the center and the cost-benefit

  1. Morbidity, outcomes and cost-benefit analysis of wildlife rehabilitation in Catalonia (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-López, Rafael Angel; Mañosa, Santi; Torres-Riera, Alex; Pomarol, Manel

    2017-01-01

    Background There are few studies of careful examination of wildlife casualties in Wildlife Rehabilitation Centers. These studies are essential for detecting menaces to wild species and providing objective criteria about cost-benefit of treatments in those centers. The release rate is considered the main outcome indicator, but other parameters such as length of stay at the center and a cost-benefit index expressed as number of released animals per euro and day, could be used as reliable estimators of the rehabilitation costs. Methodology A retrospective study based on 54772 admissions recorded from 1995–2013 in the database of the Wildlife Rehabilitation Center of Torreferrussa (Catalonia, NW Spain) assessed the morbidity, outcomes and cost-benefits of the rehabilitation practices. Results Three hundred and two species were included: 232 birds (n = 48633), 37 mammals (n = 3293), 20 reptiles (n = 2705) and 13 amphibians (n = 141). The most frequent causes of admission were: 39.8% confiscation of protected species (89.4% passerines), 31.8% orphaned young animals (35.3% swifts, 21.7% diurnal raptors and owls) and 17.4% trauma casualties (46.7% raptors and owls). The highest proportion of releases was found in the captivity confiscation category [87.4% passerines (median time of stay: 12 days)], followed by the orphaned category [78% owls (66 days), 76.5% diurnal birds of prey (43 days), 75.6% hedgehogs (49 days), 52.7% swifts (19 days) and 52% bats (55 days)]. For the trauma group, 46.8% of releases were hedgehogs (44 days) and 25.6% owls (103 days). As regards the cost-benefit index, the trauma casualties and infectious diseases had the worse values with 1.3 and 1.4 released animals/euro/day respectively, and were particularly low in raptors, waders, marine birds and chiroptera. On the contrary, captivity (4.6) and misplacement (4.1) had the best index, particulary in amphibian, reptiles and passerines. Conclusions/significance Cost-benefit studies including the

  2. Cost-Benefit Analysis of an Otolaryngology Emergency Room Using a Contingent Valuation Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naunheim, Matthew R; Kozin, Elliot D; Sethi, Rosh K; Ota, H Gregory; Gray, Stacey T; Shrime, Mark G

    2015-10-01

    Dedicated otolaryngology emergency rooms (ERs) provide a unique mechanism of health care delivery. Relative costs and willingness to pay (WTP) for these services have not been studied. This study aims to provide a cost-benefit analysis of otolaryngology-specific ER care. Cost-benefit analysis based on contingent valuation surveys. An otolaryngology-specific ER in a tertiary care academic medical center. Adult English-speaking patients presenting to an otolaryngology ER were included. WTP questions were used to assess patient valuations of specialty emergency care. Sociodemographic data, income, and self-reported levels of distress were assessed. State-level and institution-specific historical cost data were merged with WTP data within a cost-benefit analysis framework. The response rate was 75.6%, and 199 patients were included in the final analysis. Average WTP for otolaryngology ER services was $319 greater than for a general ER (95% CI: $261 to $377), with a median value of $200. The historical mean cost per visit at a general ER was $575, and mean cost at the specialty ER was $551 (95% CI: $529 to $574). Subtracting incremental cost from incremental WTP yielded a net benefit of $343. Dedicated otolaryngology ER services are valued by patients for acute otolaryngologic problems and have a net benefit of $343 per patient visit. They appear to be a cost-beneficial method for addressing acute otolaryngologic conditions. This study has implications for ER-based otolaryngologic care and direct-to-specialist services. © American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

  3. Exploring the Use of Cost-Benefit Analysis to Compare Pharmaceutical Treatments for Menorrhagia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanghera, Sabina; Frew, Emma; Gupta, Janesh Kumar; Kai, Joe; Roberts, Tracy Elizabeth

    2015-09-01

    The extra-welfarist theoretical framework tends to focus on health-related quality of life, whilst the welfarist framework captures a wider notion of well-being. EQ-5D and SF-6D are commonly used to value outcomes in chronic conditions with episodic symptoms, such as heavy menstrual bleeding (clinically termed menorrhagia). Because of their narrow-health focus and the condition's periodic nature these measures may be unsuitable. A viable alternative measure is willingness to pay (WTP) from the welfarist framework. We explore the use of WTP in a preliminary cost-benefit analysis comparing pharmaceutical treatments for menorrhagia. A cost-benefit analysis was carried out based on an outcome of WTP. The analysis is based in the UK primary care setting over a 24-month time period, with a partial societal perspective. Ninety-nine women completed a WTP exercise from the ex-ante (pre-treatment/condition) perspective. Maximum average WTP values were elicited for two pharmaceutical treatments, levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) and oral treatment. Cost data were offset against WTP and the net present value derived for treatment. Qualitative information explaining the WTP values was also collected. Oral treatment was indicated to be the most cost-beneficial intervention costing £107 less than LNG-IUS and generating £7 more benefits. The mean incremental net present value for oral treatment compared with LNG-IUS was £113. The use of the WTP approach was acceptable as very few protests and non-responses were observed. The preliminary cost-benefit analysis results recommend oral treatment as the first-line treatment for menorrhagia. The WTP approach is a feasible alternative to the conventional EQ-5D/SF-6D approaches and offers advantages by capturing benefits beyond health, which is particularly relevant in menorrhagia.

  4. Nonlinear analysis of LWR components: areas of investigation/benefits/recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, S. J. [ed.

    1980-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify specific topics of investigation into design procedures, design concepts, methods of analysis, testing practices, and standards which are characterized by nonlinear behavior (both geometric and material) and which are considered to offer some economic and/or technical benefits to the LWR industry (excluding piping). In this study these topics were collected, compiled, and subjectively evaluated as to their potential benefit. The topics considered to have the greatest benefit/impact potential are discussed. The topics of investigation were found to fall basically into three areas: component, code interpretation, and load/failure mechanism. The topics are arbitrarily reorganized into six areas of investigation: Fracture, Fatigue, Vibration/Dynamic/Seismic, Plasticity, Component/Computational Considerations, and Code Interpretation.

  5. ANALYSIS ON ECONOMICAL AND ECOLOGICAL POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF ARTIFICIAL CORAL REEFS PLANTING ACTIVITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susilo E.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Conversion activities of mangrove forest area into plantation area at Damas Beach has caused sedimentational effect on the coral reefs and the increasing ecosystem damages in the coral reefs ecosystem, which in turn will affect on the decreasing yields of fishermen. This condition has caused vulnerability to the decline of fish resources as the ecosystem has been damaged. The alternative through planting the artificial coral reefs is one way to improve the ecosystem of the damaged coral reefs. This study analyzes the economic and ecological benefits of coral reef reforestation. Based on the results of the analysis, it was obtained that the artificial coral reefs of 9 sq. m. with a length of 8.3 m has been assumed to produce direct benefits in the form of ornamental fish production, while the indirect benefits are as living fish habitat, coastal protection and carbon sinks with the total economic value of IDR 4,580,344.18 per year.

  6. Cost-Benefit Analysis of the LHC to 2025 and beyond: Was it Worth it ?

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    Social cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of projects has been successfully applied in different fields such as transport, energy, health, education, and environment, climate change policy, but often considered impossible for research infrastructures because of the impredictable benefits of scientific discovery. We have designed a CBA model for large scale research infrastructures and applied it to the LHC. After estimating investment and operation costs spread over 30 years (to 2025), combining data from the CERN and the experiments, we evaluate the benefits of knowledge output (publications), human capital development, technological spillovers, and cultural effects. Additionally, willingness-to-pay for the pure value of discovery at the LHC by the general public is estimated through a survey of around 1,ooo respondendents in four countries. Setting to zero any until now unpredictable economic value of discovery of the Higgs boson (or of any new physics), we compute a probability distribution for the net present va...

  7. Cost-benefit analysis of installing dust control devices in the agate industry, Khambhat (Gujarat).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhagia, Lakho J; Sadhu, H G

    2008-12-01

    It is well known that an exposure to crystalline silica gives rise to silicosis and silico-tuberculosis (TB). In the agate industry of Khambhat (Gujarat) not only workers but also people staying in the vicinity of the agate-grinding facilities are exposed to crystalline silica. To reduce their dust exposure, dust control devices were developed. There are approximately 500 grinding machines located in Khambhat. A cost-benefit analysis of installing dust control devices on all agate-grinding machines was carried out by adding all positive factors and benefits and subtracting the negatives and costs. It was concluded that by installing dust control devices not only could the prevalence of silicosis and TB be reduced but also, in the long run, there could be financial benefits.

  8. User`s manual of a support system for human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokobayashi, Masao [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Tamura, Kazuo

    1995-10-01

    Many kinds of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been developed. However, users are required to be skillful so as to use them, and also required complicated works such as drawing event tree (ET) and calculation of uncertainty bounds. Moreover, each method is not so complete that only one method of them is not enough to evaluate human reliability. Therefore, a personal computer (PC) based support system for HRA has been developed to execute HRA practically and efficiently. The system consists of two methods, namely, simple method and detailed one. The former uses ASEP that is a simplified THERP-technique, and combined method of OAT and HRA-ET/DeBDA is used for the latter. Users can select a suitable method for their purpose. Human error probability (HEP) data were collected and a database of them was built to use for the support system. This paper describes outline of the HRA methods, support functions and user`s guide of the system. (author).

  9. How Many Performance Shaping Factors are Necessary for Human Reliability Analysis?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2010-06-01

    It has been argued that human reliability analysis (HRA) has expended considerable energy on creating detailed representations of human performance through an increasingly long list of performance shaping factors (PSFs). It is not clear, however, to what extent this refinement and expansion of PSFs has enhanced the quality of HRA. Indeed, there is considerable range in the number of PSFs provided by individual HRA methods, ranging from single factor models such as time-reliability curves, up to 50 or more PSFs in some current HRA models. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission advocates 15 PSFs in its HRA Good Practices (NUREG-1792), while its SPAR-H method (NUREG/CR-6883) espouses the use of eight PSFs and its ATHEANA method (NUREG-1624) features an open-ended number of PSFs. The apparent differences in the optimal number of PSFs can be explained in terms of the diverse functions of PSFs in HRA. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of PSFs across different stages of HRA, including identification of potential human errors, modeling of these errors into an overall probabilistic risk assessment, quantifying errors, and preventing errors.

  10. Integrating Life-cycle Assessment into Transport Cost-benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Salling, Kim Bang

    2016-01-01

    Traditional transport Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) commonly ignores the indirect environmental impacts of an infrastructure project deriving from the overall life-cycle of the different project components. Such indirect impacts are instead of key importance in order to assess the long......-term sustainability of a transport infrastructure project. In the present study we suggest to overcome this limit by combining a conventional life-cycle assessment approach with standard transport cost-benefit analysis. The suggested methodology is tested upon a case study project related to the construction of a new...... fixed link across the Roskilde fjord in Frederikssund (Denmark). The results are then compared with those from a standard CBA framework. The analysis shows that indirect environmental impacts represent a relevant share of the estimated costs of the project, clearly affecting the final project evaluation...

  11. Reliability and Maintainability Analysis of a High Air Pressure Compressor Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Ring, Robert W.; Cole, Stuart K.

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses a Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) independent assessment conducted to support the refurbishment of the Compressor Station at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The paper discusses the methodologies used by the assessment team to derive the repair by replacement (RR) strategies to improve the reliability and availability of the Compressor Station (Ref.1). This includes a RAPTOR simulation model that was used to generate the statistical data analysis needed to derive a 15-year investment plan to support the refurbishment of the facility. To summarize, study results clearly indicate that the air compressors are well past their design life. The major failures of Compressors indicate that significant latent failure causes are present. Given the occurrence of these high-cost failures following compressor overhauls, future major failures should be anticipated if compressors are not replaced. Given the results from the RR analysis, the study team recommended a compressor replacement strategy. Based on the data analysis, the RR strategy will lead to sustainable operations through significant improvements in reliability, availability, and the probability of meeting the air demand with acceptable investment cost that should translate, in the long run, into major cost savings. For example, the probability of meeting air demand improved from 79.7 percent for the Base Case to 97.3 percent. Expressed in terms of a reduction in the probability of failing to meet demand (1 in 5 days to 1 in 37 days), the improvement is about 700 percent. Similarly, compressor replacement improved the operational availability of the facility from 97.5 percent to 99.8 percent. Expressed in terms of a reduction in system unavailability (1 in 40 to 1 in 500), the improvement is better than 1000 percent (an order of magnitude improvement). It is worthy to note that the methodologies, tools, and techniques used in the LaRC study can be used to evaluate

  12. A Benefit Analysis of Infusing Wireless into Aircraft and Fleet Operations - Report to Seedling Project Efficient Reconfigurable Cockpit Design and Fleet Operations Using Software Intensive, Network Enabled, Wireless Architecture (ECON)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrov, Natalia; Holmes, Bruce J.; Hahn, Andrew S.

    2016-01-01

    We report on an examination of potential benefits of infusing wireless technologies into various areas of aircraft and airspace operations. The analysis is done in support of a NASA seedling project Efficient Reconfigurable Cockpit Design and Fleet Operations Using Software Intensive, Network Enabled Wireless Architecture (ECON). The study has two objectives. First, we investigate one of the main benefit hypotheses of the ECON proposal: that the replacement of wired technologies with wireless would lead to significant weight reductions on an aircraft, among other benefits. Second, we advance a list of wireless technology applications and discuss their system benefits. With regard to the primary hypothesis, we conclude that the promise of weight reduction is premature. Specificity of the system domain and aircraft, criticality of components, reliability of wireless technologies, the weight of replacement or augmentation equipment, and the cost of infusion must all be taken into account among other considerations, to produce a reliable estimate of weight savings or increase.

  13. A retrospective benefit-cost analysis of the 1997 stair-fall requirements for baby walkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Gregory B; Leland, Elizabeth W

    2008-01-01

    Based on estimates from the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), there were about 25,000 baby walker-related injuries treated annually in U.S. hospital emergency departments during the early 1990s. This amounted to about 8 injuries for every 1000 baby walkers in use. Most injuries resulted from falls down stairs. After CPSC initiated a regulatory proceeding in 1994, the CPSC staff worked with industry to address the stair-fall hazard. This cooperative effort resulted in requirements designed to prevent stair-fall injuries that became effective in 1997 as part of a revised voluntary safety standard. This study presents a retrospective benefit-cost analysis of the 1997 stair-fall requirements. The benefits were defined as the reduction in the costs of injuries resulting from the use of the safer walkers. The costs were defined as the additional resource costs associated with making baby walkers safer. The study found that the stair-fall requirements were highly effective in reducing the risk of stair-fall injury, and that the benefits of the requirements substantially exceeded the costs. The expected net benefits (i.e., benefits minus costs) amounted to an average of about $169 per walker, over the walker's expected product life. Given current U.S. sales of about 600,000 baby walkers annually, the present value of the expected net benefits associated with 1 year's production amounts to over $100 million annually. A sensitivity analysis showed that the major findings were robust with respect to variations in underlying assumptions.

  14. Age-26 Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Child-Parent Center Early Education Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Arthur J.; Temple, Judy A.; White, Barry A.; Ou, Suh-Ruu; Robertson, Dylan L.

    2013-01-01

    We conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the Child-Parent Center (CPC) early childhood intervention. Using data collected up to age 26 on health and well-being, the study is the first adult economic analysis of a sustained large-scale and publicly-funded intervention. As part of the Chicago Longitudinal Study, a complete cohort of 900 low-income children who enrolled in 20 CPCs beginning at age 3 were compared to 500 well-matched low-income children who participated in the usual educational interventions for the economically disadvantaged in Chicago schools. School-age services were provided up to age 9 (third grade). Findings indicated that the three components of CPC had economic benefits in 2007 dollars that exceeded costs. The preschool program provided a total return to society of $10.83 per dollar invested (net benefits per participant of $83,708). Benefits to the public (other than program participants and families) were $7.20 per dollar invested. The primary sources of benefits were increased earnings and tax revenues, averted criminal justice system and victim costs, and savings for child welfare, special education, and grade retention. The school-age program had a societal return of $3.97 per dollar invested and a $2.11 public return. The extended intervention program (4 to 6 years of participation) had a societal return of $8.24 and public return of $5.21. Estimates were robust across a wide range of discount rates and alternative assumptions, and were consistent with the results of Monte Carlo simulations. Males, 1-year preschool participants, and children from higher risk families had greater economic benefits. Findings provide strong evidence that sustained early childhood programs can contribute to well-being for individuals and society. PMID:21291448

  15. Structure reliability design and analysis of support ring for cylinder seal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minmin, Zhao

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, the general reliability design process of the cross-sectional dimension of the support ring is introduced, which is used for the cylinder sealing. Then, taking a certain section shape support ring as an example, the every size parameters of section are determined from the view point of reliability design. Last, the static strength and reliability of the support ring are analyzed to verify the correctness of the reliability design result.

  16. Reliability and Maintainability Analysis for the Amine Swingbed Carbon Dioxide Removal System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, Tyler

    2016-01-01

    I have performed a reliability & maintainability analysis for the Amine Swingbed payload system. The Amine Swingbed is a carbon dioxide removal technology that has gone through 2,400 hours of International Space Station on-orbit use between 2013 and 2016. While the Amine Swingbed is currently an experimental payload system, the Amine Swingbed may be converted to system hardware. If the Amine Swingbed becomes system hardware, it will supplement the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) as the primary CO2 removal technology on the International Space Station. NASA is also considering using the Amine Swingbed as the primary carbon dioxide removal technology for future extravehicular mobility units and for the Orion, which will be used for the Asteroid Redirect and Journey to Mars missions. The qualitative component of the reliability and maintainability analysis is a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). In the FMEA, I have investigated how individual components in the Amine Swingbed may fail, and what the worst case scenario is should a failure occur. The significant failure effects are the loss of ability to remove carbon dioxide, the formation of ammonia due to chemical degradation of the amine, and loss of atmosphere because the Amine Swingbed uses the vacuum of space to regenerate the Amine Swingbed. In the quantitative component of the reliability and maintainability analysis, I have assumed a constant failure rate for both electronic and nonelectronic parts. Using this data, I have created a Poisson distribution to predict the failure rate of the Amine Swingbed as a whole. I have determined a mean time to failure for the Amine Swingbed to be approximately 1,400 hours. The observed mean time to failure for the system is between 600 and 1,200 hours. This range includes initial testing of the Amine Swingbed, as well as software faults that are understood to be non-critical. If many of the commercial parts were switched to military-grade parts, the expected

  17. Guidelines for the regulatory review of the human reliability analysis in PSAs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reer, Bernhard; Dang, V.N.; Hirschberg, Stefan [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland); Meyer, Patrick

    2000-07-01

    In the review guidelines recently developed for the Swiss Federal Nuclear Inspectorate, the Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is reviewed in two stages. The preliminary review is aimed at identifying major shortcomings and potential issues to be examined in the detailed review. The detailed review comprehensively addresses the overall adequacy and transparency of the HRA. For the two review stages, 97 indicators are defined in terms of questions focusing on verifiable features of the methodology, implementation and results. The guidelines provide steps for information gathering and present examples of acceptable practices as well as of potential deficiencies. Both review stages may result in requests for clarification, additional documentation or analyses. The first applications of the guidelines consist of the preliminary reviews of two HRAs. (author)

  18. Statistical analysis of the reliability of complex systems for maintenance planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Espelund

    2003-01-01

    is to analyze failure and maintenance data using mathematical and statistical models in order to improve maintenance procedures in the Danish Defence. The first part of the report introduces the maintenance planning problem and presents an overview of models for reliability, failure processes, and maintenance......This report describes a method for analysing failure and maintenance data for a population of complex repairable systems with the aim of improving maintenance efficiency. It is part of a Ph.D. study, titled "Maintenance and replacement strategies for complex systems", the objective of which...... planning. This overview is structured to highlight the process of choosing a proper model for a given data set, focusing on different measures of time and the data requirements for the different models. The second part of the report describes the analysis of two data sets from the Danish Defence. The data...

  19. Delta rhythmicity is a reliable EEG biomarker in Angelman syndrome: a parallel mouse and human analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorov, Michael S; Deck, Gina M; Dolatshahi, Marjan; Thibert, Ronald L; Bird, Lynne M; Chu, Catherine J; Philpot, Benjamin D

    2017-01-01

    Clinicians have qualitatively described rhythmic delta activity as a prominent EEG abnormality in individuals with Angelman syndrome, but this phenotype has yet to be rigorously quantified in the clinical population or validated in a preclinical model. Here, we sought to quantitatively measure delta rhythmicity and evaluate its fidelity as a biomarker. We quantified delta oscillations in mouse and human using parallel spectral analysis methods and measured regional, state-specific, and developmental changes in delta rhythms in a patient population. Delta power was broadly increased and more dynamic in both the Angelman syndrome mouse model, relative to wild-type littermates, and in children with Angelman syndrome, relative to age-matched neurotypical controls. Enhanced delta oscillations in children with Angelman syndrome were present during wakefulness and sleep, were generalized across the neocortex, and were more pronounced at earlier ages. Delta rhythmicity phenotypes can serve as reliable biomarkers for Angelman syndrome in both preclinical and clinical settings.

  20. Influence of dental restorative material properties on bond interface reliability: a finite element analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yan-tao; Zhang, Yu-mei; Hou, Shu-xun; Kong, Liang; Lin, Jun; Zhao, Yi-min; Huo, Na

    2013-03-01

    Varieties of restorative materials are widely used in dentistry. The aim of this study is to explore the influence of different dental restorative materials on bond interface reliability. A two-dimensional finite element analysis method was adopted to simulate the shear-bond efficacy test. The influence of elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio were investigated separately. Several dental restorative materials including resins, metals, and ceramics were analyzed in this study. The deformation and peak equivalent stress level of the dentin-adhesive interface rose sharply following a decrease in the elasticity of restorative materials, especially those with a low elastic modulus range. The influence of the Poisson's coefficient was not significant. Ceramics and gold alloy were preferred to resin composite in restorations bearing extensive shear load during service. Restorative materials with an elastic modulus similar to that of teeth are not always the best clinical choice. This research provides a helpful guide for the application of different restorative materials in clinical practice.