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Sample records for relative sea-level falls

  1. Meteoric calcite cementation: diagenetic response to relative fall in sea-level and effect on porosity and permeability, Las Negras area, southeastern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhaoqi; Goldstein, Robert H.; Franseen, Evan K.

    2017-03-01

    A dolomitized Upper Miocene carbonate system in southeast Spain contains extensive upper and lower zones of calcite cementation that cut across the stratigraphy. Cement textures including isopachous and circumgranular, which are consistent with phreatic-zone cementation. Cements in the upper cemented zone are non-luminescent, whereas those in the lower cemented zone exhibit multiple bands of luminescent and non-luminescent cements. In the upper cemented zone, isotopic data show two meteoric calcite lines (MCL) with mean δ18O at - 5.1‰ and - 5.8‰ VPDB, whereas no clear MCL is defined in the lower cemented zone where mean δ18O for calcite cement is at - 6.7‰ VPDB. δ13C values in both cement zones are predominantly negative, ranging from - 10 to + 2‰ VPDB, suggestive of carbon from soil gas or decayed organics. Measurements of Tm ice in primary fluid inclusions yield a mode of 0.0 °C in both zones, indicating calcite cementation from fresh water. These two zones define the positions of two different paleo-water tables that formed during a relative sea-level fall and erosional downcutting during the Plio-Pleistocene. The upper cemented zone pre-dated the lower cemented zone on the basis of known relative sea-level history. Meteoric calcite cementation reduced porosity and permeability, but measured values are inconsistent with simple filling of open pore space. Each texture, boundstone, grainstone, packstone, wackestone, produces a different relationship between percent calcite cement and porosity/permeability. Distribution of cements may be predictable on the basis of known sea-level history, and the effect of the cementation can be incorporated into subsurface geomodels by defining surfaces of rock boundaries that separate cemented zones from uncemented zones, and applying texture-specific relationships among cementation, porosity and permeability.

  2. Eustatic and Relative Sea Level Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Stocchi, P.; Vacchi, M.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level changes can be driven by either variationsin the masses or volume of the oceans, or bychanges of the land with respect to the sea surface. Inthe first case, a sea level change is defined ‘eustatic’;otherwise, it is defined ‘relative’. Several techniques canbe used to observe changes in sea

  3. Postglacial relative sea level change at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island (West Antarctic

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    K. V. Polishchuk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis and integration of data obtained in our field and laboratory investigations of 2008–2012 together with results of previous paleogeographic studies were conducted to reveal parameters and factors of the post-glacial changes in the relative sea-level on the Fildes Peninsula and the King George Island. Results of dating of organic material taken from cross-sections of Quaternary deposits, data on morphology of marine landforms as well as on bottom sediments in lakes were used to construct a curve of changes in the relative sea-level.Our research has shown that the rapid rise of relative sea level in the area (since the beginning of the Holocene decelerated about 8000 years BP, achieving its maximum about 7000 years BP. This was followed by the fall of relative sea-level (the land elevation by 18–20  m in total, and it was characterized by relatively high rate of fall during periods of 6000– 5000 years BP, 4000–2500 years BP, and during the last 1500 years; the rate decreased in 5000–4000 years BP and 2500– 1600 years BP. The changes in relative sea level in this region were determined by the following factors: the eustatic component of the global changes in sea-level and, possibly, oscillations in the global sea level of another nature; local parameters of the Last glacial maximum; a course of the Peninsula deglaciation; regional physical characteristics of the Earth's crust and the mantle substances; local tectonic processes, including the isostatic rebound. Since the beginning of the Holocene up to about 7000 years BP, the main contribution to changes of the relative sea-level in this area was made by the global eustatic factor. The subsequent fall of the relative sea-level (elevation of the Peninsula surface proceeded under condition of reduced role of the eustatic factor and predominance of other factors.

  4. Mangrove Sedimentation and Response to Relative Sea-Level Rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, C D; Rogers, K; McKee, K L; Lovelock, C E; Mendelssohn, I A; Saintilan, N

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  5. Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  6. Changes in Holocene relative sea-level and coastal morphology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Sander, Lasse; Clemmensen, Lars B

    2015-01-01

    Changes in relative sea-level (RSL) during the Holocene are reconstructed based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data collected across a raised beach ridge system on the island of Samsø, Denmark. The internal architecture of the beach ridge and swale deposits is divided into characteristic radar...... ridge progradation through time. The vertical levels of identified downlap points are combined with an age model based on optically stimulated luminescence-dated samples to reconstruct RSL for the past c. 5000 years. Overall, the reconstruction shows that the period between c. 4800 and 3800 yr BP...

  7. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia.

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    Kemp, Andrew C; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Mann, Michael E; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2011-07-05

    We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

  8. Reconstructing Common Era relative sea-level change on the Gulf Coast of Florida

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    Gerlach, Matthew J.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Moyer, Ryan P.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Cahill, Niamh

    2017-01-01

    To address a paucity of Common Era data in the Gulf of Mexico, we reconstructed ~ 1.1 m of relative sea-level (RSL) rise over the past ~ 2000 years at Little Manatee River (Gulf Coast of Florida, USA). We applied a regional-scale foraminiferal transfer function to fossil assemblages preserved in a core of salt-marsh peat and organic silt that was dated using radiocarbon and recognition of pollution, 137Cs and pollen chronohorizons. Our proxy reconstruction was combined with tide-gauge data from four nearby sites spanning 1913–2014 CE. Application of an Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model to the combined proxy and instrumental dataset demonstrates that RSL fell from ~ 350 to 100 BCE, before rising continuously to present. This initial RSL fall was likely the result of local-scale processes (e.g., silting up of a tidal flat or shallow sub-tidal shoal) as salt-marsh development at the site began. Since ~ 0 CE, we consider the reconstruction to be representative of regional-scale RSL trends. We removed a linear rate of 0.3 mm/yr from the RSL record using the EIV-IGP model to estimate climate-driven sea-level trends and to facilitate comparison among sites. This analysis demonstrates that since ~ 0 CE sea level did not deviate significantly from zero until accelerating continuously from ~ 1500 CE to present. Sea level was rising at 1.33 mm/yr in 1900 CE and accelerated until 2014 CE when a rate of 2.02 mm/yr was attained, which is the fastest, century-scale trend in the ~ 2000-year record. Comparison to existing reconstructions from the Gulf coast of Louisiana and the Atlantic coast of northern Florida reveal similar sea-level histories at all three sites. We explored the influence of compaction and fluvial processes on our reconstruction and concluded that compaction was likely insignificant. Fluvial processes were also likely insignificant, but further proxy evidence is needed to fully test this hypothesis. Our results

  9. Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

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    Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

    2018-05-01

    Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

  10. Salt marsh stability modelled in relation to sea level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartholdy, Jesper; Bartholdy, Anders; Kroon, Aart

    2010-01-01

    thickness. Autocompaction was incorporated in the model, and shown to play a major role for the translation of accretion rates measured as length per unit time to accumulation rates measured as mass per area per unit time. This is important, even for shallow salt marsh deposits for which it is demonstrated...... that mass depth down core can be directly related to the bulk dry density of the surface layer by means of a logarithmic function. The results allow for an evaluation of the use of marker horizons in the topmost layers and show that it is important to know the level of the marker in relation to the salt...... marsh base. In general, deeper located markers will indicate successively smaller accretion rates with the same sediment input. Thus, stability analysis made on the basis of newly established marker horizons will be biased and indicate salt marsh stabilities far above the correct level. Running...

  11. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

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    Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

    2018-03-01

    Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the

  12. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

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    S. Esselborn

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year, and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ, the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS, and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC. The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr−1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr−1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test

  13. Relative sea-level change in the central Cyclades (Greece) since the Early Bronze Age

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    Draganits, E.

    2012-04-01

    The Aegean is a focus of important cultural achievements in Europe since the Neolithic period. The resulting abundance of archaeological remains, many of them below sea-level represent an advantageous area for the study of local relative sea-level change. We have carried out detailed mapping of Despotiko Island (SW of Antiparos) and its surrounding. Despotiko is situated almost exactly in the center of the Cyclades (as defined nowadays), more so than Delos, and therefore is very well suited for sea-level studies of the Cyclades. This beneficial location, combined with a spacious and protected bay, additionally may explain its former importance as stepping-stone in the Aegean Sea. The island is uninhabited at present, but Early Bronze Age settlement sites and graveyards as well as a large Archaic sanctuary proof its former importance. The sanctuary is situated on a gently northeast dipping slope in the northeast part of Despotiko, in range of sight of the Órmos Despotiko. Since 1997 large parts of this important sanctuary have been excavated during several excavation campaigns. Tectonically, Despotiko, Antiparos and Paros, belong to the Attic-Cycladic Crystalline of the Central Hellenides, a stack of metamorphic tectonic nappes, mainly comprising variable types of gneiss, schist, marble and amphibolite, and tectonic slices of unmetamorphosed sediments on top, separated by low-angle normal faults from the metamorphic units below. Submerged archaeological structures at the sea bottom of the Órmos Despotiko, a Classical marble inscription from the sanctuary and partly submerged agriculture trenches at the east coast Despotiko, indicate that the relative sea-level in this area was some 3 m lower during the Early Bronze Age and still more than 1 m lower during Classical time. These values of relative sea-level rise indicate a subsidence component additional to the global sea-level rise in the investigated time period. Neglecting possible vertical tectonic movements and

  14. Paleo sea-level changes and relative sea-level indicators: Precise measurements, indicative meaning and glacial isostatic adjustment perspectives from Mallorca (Western Mediterranean)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Casella, E.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Vacchi, M.; Mann, T.; Rovere, A.

    2017-01-01

    Paleo relative sea-level (RSL) indicators formed during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e have been reported bya large number of studies worldwide. Despite this, three main aspects are seldom reported: (1) use of high-precisionsurvey techniques applied to MIS 5e RSL indicators; (2) application of

  15. Relative Sea Level Trends Along the Coast of the Bay of Bengal

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    Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Delebecque, C.; Islam, A. S.; Shum, C. K.

    2016-12-01

    In the coastal belt of the Bay of Bengal, the sea level rise is one of a major threat, linked to climate change, which drastically affects the livelihoods of millions of people. A comprehensive understanding of sea level trends and its variability in this region is therefore crucial and should help to anticipate the impacts of climate change and implement adaptation strategies. This region is bordered mostly by Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Here, we revisit the sea level changes in the Bay of Bengal region from tide gauges and satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2014. The 23 monthly mean tide gauge records, used in this study, are retrieved from PSMSL (15 records) and supplemented with Bangladeshi observations (8 records). We show that, over the satellite altimetry era, the sea level interannual/decadal variability is mainly due to ocean thermal expansion variability driven by IOD/ENSO events and their low frequency modulation. We focus on relative sea level rise at major coastal cities and try to separate the climatic signal (long term trend plus interannual/decadal variability) from local effects, in particular vertical land movements. Results from GPS are analysed where available. When no such data exist, vertical land movements are deduced from the combined use of tide gauge and altimetry data. While the analysis is performed over the whole region, a particular attention is given to the low-lyingBangladesh's coastal area.

  16. Relative Sea Level, Tidal Range, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor from 1825 to 2016

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    Talke, S. A.; Kemp, A.; Woodruff, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Long time series of water-level measurements made by tide gauges provide a rich and valuable observational history of relative sea-level change, the frequency and height of extreme water levels and evolving tidal regimes. However, relatively few locations have available tide-gauge records longer than 100 years and most of these places are in northern Europe. This spatio-temporal distribution hinders efforts to understand global-, regional- and local-scale trends. Using newly-discovered archival measurements, we constructed a 200 year, instrumental record of water levels, tides, and storm surges in Boston Harbor. We detail the recovery, datum reconstruction, digitization, quality assurance, and analysis of this extended observational record. Local, decadally-averaged relative sea-level rose by 0.28 ± 0.05 m since the 1820s, with an acceleration of 0.023 ±0.009 mm/yr2. Approximately 0.13 ± 0.02 m of the observed RSL rise occurred due to ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment, and the remainder occurred due to changes in ocean mass and volume associated with the onset of modern mean sea-level rise. Change-point analysis of the new relative sea level record confirms that anthropogenic rise began in 1924-1932, which is in agreement with global mean sea level estimates from the global tide gauge network. Tide range decreased by 5.5% between 1830 and 1910, likely due in large part to anthropogenic development. Storm tides in Boston Harbor are produced primarily by extratropical storms during the November-April time frame. The three largest storm tides occurred in 1851, 1909, and 1978. Because 90% of the top 20 storm tides since 1825 occurred during a spring tide, the secular change in tide range contributes to a slight reduction in storm tide magnitudes. However, non-stationarity in storm hazard was historically driven primarily by local relative sea-level rise; a modest 0.2 m increase in relative sea level reduces the 100 year high water mark to a once-in-10 year event.

  17. Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

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    Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

    2017-09-11

    Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

  18. Relative Sea-Level Stability in Natuna Island, Indonesia, since 6400 yr BP

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    Wan, J. X. W.; Meltzner, A. J.; Switzer, A.; Horton, B.; Ke, L.; Wang, X.; Bradley, S.; Natawidjaja, D.; Suwargadi, B. W.

    2017-12-01

    In order to understand the regional variability of relative sea level (RSL) due to glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and other natural influences, high-precision records of Holocene RSL on the Sunda Shelf are required. Accurate estimates of past RSL at a variety of locations allow us to validate geophysical and climate models, and provide context for understanding modern RSL change in the face of global climate change. For the aforementioned purposes, we surveyed and dated coral microatoll colonies, which are precise RSL proxy archives, from Natuna Island in Indonesia. Our analysis of 11 coral microatoll elevations from a total of four sites on Natuna Island is constrained in time by a minimum of one radiocarbon date and one U-Th age on each microatoll. The distribution of ages and elevations indicates that RSL was relatively stable from 6400 to 1400 yr BP at 0.3-0.6 m higher than present, before a more recent fall to current levels. The radiocarbon and U-Th ages are consistent with one another, with preliminary estimates of ΔR ≈ 0 for our entire data set. Our data are roughly compatible with predictions of a recently developed GIA model for the Southeast Asia region (Bradley et al., 2016, Quat. Sci. Rev.). This new dataset is part of larger project with more than 25 sites in Malaysia and Indonesia. Our new constraints on past RSL on the Sunda Shelf will allow for validation and calibration of GIA models in the tropics, where RSL data are presently insufficient.

  19. Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

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    Bâki Iz H.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

  20. Postglacial relative sea-level history of the Prince Rupert area, British Columbia, Canada

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    Letham, Bryn; Martindale, Andrew; Macdonald, Rebecca; Guiry, Eric; Jones, Jacob; Ames, Kenneth M.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a history of relative sea level (RSL) change for the last 15,000 years in the Prince Rupert region on the northern coast of British Columbia, Canada. One hundred twenty-three radiocarbon ages of organic material from isolation basin cores, sediment sequence exposures, and archaeological sites having a recognized relation to past sea levels constrain postglacial RSL. The large number of new measurements relating to past sea-level provides a well constrained RSL curve that differs in significant ways from previously published results. After deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum, the region experienced an isostatically-induced rapid RSL drop from as much 50 m asl to as low as -6.3 m asl in as little as a few centuries between 14,500 BP and 13,500 BP. After a lowstand below current sea level for about 2000 years during the terminal Pleistocene, RSL rose again to a highstand at least 6 m asl after the end of the Younger Dryas. RSL slowly dropped through the Holocene to close to its current position by 2000-1500 BP, with some potential fluctuations between 3500 and 1500 BP. This study highlights variation in RSL histories across relatively short distances, which must be accounted for by local RSL reconstructions such as this one. This RSL curve aided in the identification of an 8000-9000 year old archaeological site on a 10-12 m asl terrace, which is currently the earliest dated archaeological site in the area, and it provides guidance for searching for even older archaeological remains. We highlight the utility and potential of this refined RSL history for developing surveys for other archaeological sites associated with paleoshorelines.

  1. The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.

    2017-12-01

    Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.

  2. Sedimentology of middle ordovician carbonates in the Argentine precordillera: evidence of regional relative sea-level changes

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    Keller, M.; Eberlein, S.; Lehnert, O.

    1993-07-01

    The Las Aguaditas Formation in the Argentine Precordillera of San Juan is the only Ordovician carbonate sequence deposited on a slope. Spiculites, mudstones and calcisiltites represent the autochthonous sediments, characterized by a fine lamination, rare fossils and their dark colour. The pelagic fauna consists of rare radiolarians/calcispheres, trinucleid trilobites, graptolites and conodonts. The latter are typical of an open marine environment and proved a Llanvirn—Llandeilo age for the Las Aguaditas Formation. In the upper part of the succession there are several intercalations of megabreccias. Their thickness decreases from about 20 to 4 m towards the top of the formation, accompanied by an increasing amount of carbonate turbidites. The clasts of the breccias are derived from the slope as well as the platform. Each of the megabreccia horizons represents a system of channels, lobes and interchannel deposits, which together form a slope apron. On top of the lower breccia a small biostrome developed, where bryozoans and crinoids are preserved in an autochthonous position. Sedimentation of the Las Aguaditas Formation started with the drowning of the underlying carbonate platform (San Juan limestones). Near the Arenig-Llanvirn boundary, a rapid ecstatic sea-level rise led to the deposition of graptolitic black shales and mudstones. Upwards, allochthonous carbonates become increasingly abundant. The onset of megabreccia deposition coincides with a major relative sea-level fall, caused by block movements in connection with rifting. The subsequent transition from breccia formation towards turbiditic sedimentation corresponds to an environmental shift from the slope towards the toe of slope and basin and marks a renewed moderate sea-level rise.

  3. The Role of Relative Sea Level Changes in Diagenetic Processes and Stacking Pattern of Kangan Formation Sediments in one of the Persian Gulf Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    حسن اشراقی

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Lower to Middle Triassic aged Kangan Formation is one of the most significant carbonate gas reservoirs in Iranian territory. In this study, thin sections data were used to recognize microfacies, sedimentary environments and the interaction between diagenetic processes and facies stacking pattern in a sequence stratigraphic framework. Petrographic studies leaded to recognition of eight microfacies related to three facies belts including tidal flat, lagoon and shoal. Moreover, the observed microfacies patterns indicate a ramp carbonate platform as depositional environment for this carbonate succession. The main diagenetic processes of Kangan Formation include micritization, isopachous and fibrous cements (primary marine diagenesis, dissolution and moldic porosity (meteoric diagenesis, compaction and stylolitization (secondary diagenesis. Based on facies changes, two third-order sequences were specified, each of which could be divided into two systems tracts including transgressive systems tract (TST and highstand systems tract (HST. In addition, sequence boundaries were identified with bedded, massive and nodular anhydrite. These facies, that are indicative of maximum sea level fall, were deposited in hypersaline lagoons. There is a close association between diagenetic processes and relative sea level changes of Kangan Formation, so that diagenetic processes of studied succession have been controlled by sediments stacking patterns during transgression and regression of sea level. During the transgression, the main diagenetic processes in shoal facies are marine cementation and dolomitization in lagoon and tidal flat facies. However, during the sea level fall, these processes include dissolution in shoal facies and dolomitization, anhydrite nodule formation and cementation in lagoon and tidal flat settings.

  4. Assessing risk of navigational hazard from sea-level-related datum in the South West of Java Sea, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poerbandono

    2017-07-01

    This paper assesses the presence of navigational hazards due to underestimation of charted depths originated from an establishment of a sea-level-related reference plane, i.e. datum. The study domain is situated in one of Indonesia's densest marine traffic, SW Java Sea, Indonesia. The assessment is based on the comparison of the authorized Chart Datum (CD), being uniformly located at 0.6 m below Mean Sea Level (MSL), and a spatially varying Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) generated for the purpose of this research. Hazards are considered here as the deviation of LAT from CD and quantified as the ratio of LAT -CD deviation with respect to the allowable Total Vertical Uncertainty (TVU), i.e. the international standard for accuracy of depth information on nautical charts. Underestimation of charted depth is expected for the case that LAT falls below CD. Such a risk magnifies with decreasing depths, as well as the increasing volume of traffic and draught of the vessel. It is found that most of the domain is in the interior of risk-free zone from using uniform CD. As much as 0.08 and 0.19 parts of the area are in zones where the uncertainty of CD contributes respectively to 50% and 30% of Total Vertical Uncertainty. These are zones where the hazard of navigation is expected to increase due to underestimated lowest tidal level.

  5. Global change and relative sea level rise at Venice: what impact in term of flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbognin, Laura; Tosi, Luigi [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); Teatini, Pietro [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University of Padova, Department of Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific Applications, Padua (Italy); Tomasin, Alberto [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University Ca' Foscari in Venice, Venice (Italy)

    2010-11-15

    Relative sea level rise (RSLR) due to climate change and geodynamics represents the main threat for the survival of Venice, emerging today only 90 cm above the Northern Adriatic mean sea level (msl). The 25 cm RSLR occurred over the 20th century, consisting of about 12 cm of land subsidence and 13 cm of sea level rise, has increased the flood frequency by more than seven times with severe damages to the urban heritage. Reasonable forecasts of the RSLR expected to the century end must be investigated to assess the suitability of the Mo.S.E. project planned for the city safeguarding, i.e., the closure of the lagoon inlets by mobile barriers. Here we consider three RSLR scenarios as resulting from the past sea level rise recorded in the Northern Adriatic Sea, the IPCC mid-range A1B scenario, and the expected land subsidence. Available sea level measurements show that more than 5 decades are required to compute a meaningful eustatic trend, due to pseudo-cyclic 7-8 year long fluctuations. The period from 1890 to 2007 is characterized by an average rate of 0.12 {+-} 0.01 cm/year. We demonstrate that linear regression is the most suitable model to represent the eustatic process over these 117 year. Concerning subsidence, at present Venice is sinking due to natural causes at 0.05 cm/year. The RSLR is expected to range between 17 and 53 cm by 2100, and its repercussions in terms of flooding frequency are associated here to each scenario. In particular, the frequency of tides higher than 110 cm, i.e., the value above which the gates would close the lagoon to the sea, will increase from the nowadays 4 times per year to a range between 20 and 250. These projections provide a large spread of possible conditions concerning the survival of Venice, from a moderate nuisance to an intolerable aggression. Hence, complementary solutions to Mo.S.E. may well be investigated. (orig.)

  6. Holocene relative sea-level changes from North America and the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Benjamin; Engelhart, Simon; Vacchi, Matteo; Khan, Nicole; Peltier, Dick; Roy, Keven

    2014-05-01

    Reconstructions of Holocene relative sea level (RSL) are important for identifying the ice equivalent meltwater contribution to sea-level change during deglaciation. Holocene RSL reconstructions from near, intermediate and far field regions enable the assessment of earth and ice parameters of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models. RSL reconstructions provide data for estimating rates of spatially variable and ongoing vertical land motion; a requirement for understanding the variation in modern and late Holocene sea level as recorded by instrumental and proxy records. Here we explain the methodology employed to reconstruct former sea levels, which follows the practice of the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP). We produce sea level index points from the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North America and the Caribbean. Index points are defined as the most reliable observations of former sea levels. They consist of an estimate of X (age) and Y (the position of former RSL). Where a suite of index points are developed for a locality or region, they describe changes in RSL through time and estimate rates of change. A valid index point must meet the following four criteria; (1) location of the sample is known; (2) the altitude of the sample (and the error associated with measuring that altitude) is known; (3) the indicative meaning (the relationship between the sample and a tide level) is estimated; and (4) the age of the sample, which is commonly radiocarbon dated is calibrated to sidereal years using the latest calibration curves. In total databases have over 2000 sea-level index points from formerly ice covered, uplifting regions of Canada, to the region of forebulge collapse along the subsiding mid-Atlantic and mid-Pacific coastlines of the United States, to the tropical regions of the Caribbean. Recent analyses of these new published databases have led to a further refinement of the most recent of the ICE-NG (VMX) series of global models of GIA. The records

  7. A High-Resolution Reconstruction of Late-Holocene Relative Sea Level in Rhode Island, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stearns, R. B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Kemp, A.; Cahill, N.; Halavik, B. T.; Corbett, D. R.; Brain, M.; Hill, T. D.

    2017-12-01

    Studies on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts have utilized salt-marsh peats and the macro- and microfossils preserved within them to reconstruct high-resolution records of relative sea level (RSL). We followed this approach to investigate spatial and temporal RSL variability in southern New England, USA, by reconstructing 3,300 years of RSL change in lower Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island. After reconnaisance of lower Narragansett Bay salt marshes, we recovered a 3.4m core at Fox Hill Marsh on Conanicut Island. We enumerated foraminiferal assemblages at 3cm intervals throughout the length of the core and we assessed trends in δ13C at 5 cm resolution. We developed a composite chronology (average resolution of ±50 years for a 1 cm slice) using 30 AMS radiocarbon dates and historical chronological markers of known age (137Cs, heavy metals, Pb isotopes, pollen). We assessed core compaction (mechanical compression) by collecting compaction-free basal-peat samples and using a published decompaction model. We employed fossil foraminifera and bulk sediment δ13C to estimate paleomarsh elevation using a Bayesian transfer function trained by a previously-published regional modern foraminiferal dataset. We combined the proxy RSL reconstruction and local tide-gauge measurements from Newport, Rhode Island (1931 CE to present) and estimated past rates of RSL change using an Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model. Both basal peats and the decompaction model suggest that our RSL record is not significantly compacted. RSL rose from -3.9 m at 1250 BCE reaching -0.4 m at 1850 CE (1 mm/yr). We removed a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) contribution of 0.9 mm/yr based on a local GPS site to facilitate comparison to regional records. The detrended sea-level reconstruction shows multiple departures from stable sea level (0 mm/yr) over the last 3,300 years and agrees with prior reconstructions from the US Atlantic coast showing evidence for sea-level changes that

  8. Mapping Relative Sea Level Influences of the Cape Fear Arch in southern North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkes, A.; Kemp, A.; Capar, P.

    2017-12-01

    Long-term relative sea-level (RSL) records are a necessary benchmark by which to gauge present accelerated rates of sea-level rise, future sea-level predictions, and their implications to the coastal zone. The east coast of the United States functions as a significant region of latitudinal RSL variability due to the continuous recovery of land from the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum. Differential glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) along the coastline has caused higher rates of subsidence in areas around the former forbulge maxima near New Jersey and Delaware and lower rates to the north and south of this maxima. However, the coast between southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina is experiencing a slower rate of RSL rise then is seen in reconstructed GIA latitudinal trends along the U.S. east coast. It was thought that this could have been attributed to non-isostatic, long-term tectonic processes causing less GIA subsidence of the lithosphere within the region impacted by uplift from the Cape Fear Arch (CFA), an underlying crystalline basement high. A recent study suggests that RSL rise is slower around the CFA than areas to the north and south due to suggested CFA uplift rates of 0.24+0.15mm a-1. An absence of RSL records for 200km north of the CFA make mapping of its influence difficult. Additional RSL records to the north of the CFA allow for a better understanding of the asymmetrical distribution in the rate of RSL rise in this region. Because the distribution in the rate of RSLR between records is not linear it is important for these low-lying coastal communities to better understand their risk to future RSLR.

  9. A Mid-Holocene Relative Sea-Level Stack, New Jersey, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, B.; Walker, J. S.; Kemp, A.; Shaw, T. J.; Kopp, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Most high resolution (decimeter- and decadal-scale) relative sea-level (RSL) records using salt-marsh microfossils as a proxy only extend through the Common Era, limiting our understanding of driving mechanisms of RSL change and how sea-level is influenced by changing climate. Records beyond the Common Era are limited by the depth of continuous sequences of salt-marsh peat suitable for high resolution reconstructions, as well as contamination by local processes such as sediment compaction. In contrast, sequences of basal peats have produced compaction-free RSL records through the Holocene, but at a low resolution (meter- and centennial-scale). We devise a new Multi-Proxy Presence/Absence Method (MP2AM) to develop a mid-Holocene RSL stack. We stack a series of 1 m basal peat cores that overlap along a uniform elevational gradient above an incompressible basal sand. We analyzed three sea-level indicators from 14 cores: foraminifera, testate amoebae, and stable carbon isotope geochemistry. To reconstruct RSL, this multi-proxy approach uses the timesaving presence/absence of forams and testates to determine the elevation of the highest occurrence of forams and the lowest occurrence of testates in each basal core. We use stable carbon isotope geochemistry to determine the C3/C4 vegetation boundary in each core. We develop age-depth models for each core using a series of radiocarbon dates. The RSL records from each 1 m basal core are combined to create a stack or, in effect, one long core of salt-marsh material. This method removes the issue of compaction to create a continuous RSL record to address temporal changes and periods of climate and sea-level variability. We reconstruct a southern NJ mid-Holocene RSL record from Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, where Kemp et al. (2013) completed a 2500 yr RSL record using a foraminifera-based transfer function approach. Preliminary radiocarbon dates suggest the basal sequence is at least 4246-4408 cal yrs BP

  10. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  11. The dynamic nature of relative sea level in Southeast Asia: tectonic effects and human impacts (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, E.; Qiu, Q.; Feng, L.; Lubis, A.; Meltzner, A. J.; Tsang, L. L.; Daly, P.; McCaughey, J.; Banerjee, P.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.

    2013-12-01

    Tectonic changes can have significant effects on crustal deformation, the geoid, and relative sea level (RSL). Indeed, the tectonic impacts on RSL in some regions can be greater than those predicted as a result of climate change. In the case of earthquakes, these changes can occur suddenly, as coastlines uplift or subside by up to many meters. The changes can also occur over many decades as a result of interseismic or postseismic processes, or periodically in the form of transient slow-slip events. Although these effects are (mostly) recovered elastically over the course of the earthquake cycle, they are occurring in the context of ever-increasing populations living along affected coastlines, particularly the case in areas such as SE Asia. The societal effects of these tectonic-induced sea-level changes are therefore becoming increasingly significant, and important to consider in future projections for sea-level change. Additionally, tide-gauge and gravity measurements made in tectonically active areas cannot be interpreted without consideration and modeling of the tectonic setting. These facts highlight the need for accurate geodetic measurements of land-height change. Along the Sumatra subduction zone, a series of great earthquakes have occurred over the last decade, along with numerous moderate and smaller earthquakes. These, and their ensuing postseismic deformation, have reshaped regional coastlines. We will show visualization of land height changes using a decade of Sumatra GPS Array (SuGAr) data, and related tectonic models, that demonstrate dramatically the ups and downs of land elevation close to the earthquake sources. Vertical coseismic displacements as large as ~2.9 m have been recorded by the SuGAr (an uplift at Nias, during the 2005 Mw 8.6 earthquake), and vertical postseismic rates on the order of tens of mm/yr or greater (e.g., in northern Aceh, one station has been uplifting at a rate of ~34 mm/yr since the 2004 Mw 9.2 earthquake, while in southern

  12. A model of water and sediment balance as determinants of relative sea level rise in contemporary and future deltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.

    2018-03-01

    Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.

  13. Geriatric fall-related injuries.

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: The majority of geriatric fall-related injuries were due to fall from the same level at home. Assessment of risk fac- tors for falls including home hazards is essential for prevention of geriatric fall-related injuries. Keywords: Accidental fall, geriatrics, injury, trauma registry. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ahs.v16i2.24.

  14. MIS 5e relative sea-level changes in the Mediterranean Sea: Contribution of isostatic disequilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo; Lorscheid, Thomas; de Boer, Bas; Simms, Alexander R.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Pappalardo, Marta; Rovere, Alessio

    2018-04-01

    Sea-level indicators dated to the Last Interglacial, or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, have a twofold value. First, they can be used to constrain the melting of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in response to global warming scenarios. Second, they can be used to calculate the vertical crustal rates at active margins. For both applications, the contribution of glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to vertical displacement of sea-level indicators must be calculated. In this paper, we re-assess MIS 5e sea-level indicators at 11 Mediterranean sites that have been generally considered tectonically stable or affected by mild tectonics. These are found within a range of elevations of 2-10 m above modern mean sea level. Four sites are characterized by two separate sea-level stands, which suggest a two-step sea-level highstand during MIS 5e. Comparing field data with numerical modeling we show that (i) GIA is an important contributor to the spatial and temporal variability of the sea-level highstand during MIS 5e, (ii) the isostatic imbalance from the melting of the MIS 6 ice sheet can produce a >2.0 m sea-level highstand, and (iii) a two-step melting phase for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets reduces the differences between observations and predictions. Our results show that assumptions of tectonic stability on the basis of the MIS 5e records carry intrinsically large uncertainties, stemming either from uncertainties in field data and GIA models. The latter are propagated to either Holocene or Pleistocene sea-level reconstructions if tectonic rates are considered linear through time.

  15. Retinal vessel diameters in relation to hematocrit variation during acclimatization of highlanders to sea level altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Peter Kristian; Sander, Birgit; Zubieta-Calleja, Gustavo

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE: To examine variations in retinal vessel diameters during acclimatization of native highlanders to normobaric normoxia at sea level. METHODS: Fifteen healthy residents of the greater La Paz region in Bolivia (3600 m above sea level) were examined thrice over a 72-day period, after having...... traveled by airplane to Copenhagen, Denmark, near sea level. RESULTS: In the study subjects, hematocrit decreased from 49.6% (day 2) to 45.9% (P = 0.0066, day 23) and 41.7% (P ... diameters were indistinguishable from baseline after 72 days. No funduscopic signs of retinopathy were observed. Arterial blood pressure remained stable throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: Although a 16% reduction in hematocrit occurred between days 2 and 72 after arrival at sea level, the only significant...

  16. Relative sea level and coastal environments in arctic Alaska during Marine Isotope Stage 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquharson, L. M.; Mann, D. H.; Jones, B. M.; Rittenour, T. M.; Grosse, G.; Groves, P.

    2015-12-01

    Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 was characterized by marked fluctuations in climate, the warmest being MIS 5e (124-119 ka) when relative sea level (RSL) stood 2-10 m higher than today along many coastlines. In northern Alaska, marine deposits now 5-10 m above modern sea level are assigned to this time period and termed the Pelukian transgression (PT). Complicating this interpretation is the possibility that an intra-Stage 5 ice shelf extended along the Alaskan coast, causing isostatic depression along its grounded margins, which caused RSL highs even during periods of low, global RSL. Here we use optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to date inferred PT deposits on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain. A transition from what we interpret to be lagoonal mud to sandy tidal flat deposits lying ~ 2.75 m asl dates to 113+/-18 ka. Above this, a 5-m thick gravelly barrier beach dates to 95 +/- 20 ka. This beach contains well-preserved marine molluscs, whale vertebrae, and walrus tusks. Pleistocene-aged ice-rich eolian silt (yedoma) blanket the marine deposits and date to 57.6 +/-10.9 ka. Our interpretation of this chronostratigraphy is that RSL was several meters higher than today during MIS 5e, and lagoons or brackish lakes were prevalent. Gravel barrier beaches moved onshore as local RSL rose further after MIS 5e. The error range of the OSL age of the barrier-beach unit spans the remaining four substages of MIS 5; however, the highstand of RSL on this arctic coastline appears to occurr after the warmest part of the last interglacial and appears not to be coeval with the eustatic maximum reached at lower latitudes during MIS 5. One possibility is that RSL along the Beaufort Sea coast was affected by isostatic depression caused by an ice shelf associated with widespread, intra-Stage 5 glaciation that was out of phase with lower latitude glaciation and whose extent and timing remains enigmatic.

  17. Modeling Anthropogenic Impact on Sediment Balance and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Contemporary and Future Deltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.

  18. Extended late Holocene relative sea-level histories for North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Andrew C.; Kegel, Jessica J.; Culver, Stephen J.; Barber, Donald C.; Mallinson, David J.; Leorri, Eduardo; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Cahill, Niamh; Riggs, Stanley R.; Woodson, Anna L.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Horton, Benjamin P.

    2017-01-01

    We produced ∼3000-year long relative sea-level (RSL) histories for two sites in North Carolina (USA) using foraminifera preserved in new and existing cores of dated salt-marsh sediment. At Cedar Island, RSL rose by ∼2.4 m during the past ∼3000 years compared to ∼3.3 m at Roanoke Island. This spatial difference arises primarily from differential GIA that caused late Holocene RSL rise to be 0.1–0.2 mm/yr faster at Roanoke Island than at Cedar Island. However, a non-linear difference in RSL between the two study regions (particularly from ∼0 CE to ∼1250 CE) indicates that additional local- to regional-scale processes drove centennial-scale RSL change in North Carolina. Therefore, the Cedar Island and Roanoke Island records should be considered as independent of one another. Between-site differences on sub-millennial timescales cannot be adequately explained by non-stationary tides, sediment compaction, or local sediment dynamics. We propose that a period of accelerating RSL rise from ∼600 CE to 1100 CE that is present at Roanoke Island (and other sites north of Cape Hatteras at least as far as Connecticut), but absent at Cedar Island (and other sites south of Cape Hatteras at least as far as northeastern Florida) is a local-to regional-scale effect of dynamic ocean and/or atmospheric circulation.

  19. Extended late Holocene relative sea-level histories for North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Andrew C.; Kegel, Jessica J.; Culver, Stephen J.; Barber, Donald C.; Mallinson, David J.; Leorri, Eduardo; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Cahill, Niamh; Riggs, Stanley R.; Woodson, Anna L.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Horton, Benjamin P.

    2017-03-01

    We produced ∼3000-year long relative sea-level (RSL) histories for two sites in North Carolina (USA) using foraminifera preserved in new and existing cores of dated salt-marsh sediment. At Cedar Island, RSL rose by ∼2.4 m during the past ∼3000 years compared to ∼3.3 m at Roanoke Island. This spatial difference arises primarily from differential GIA that caused late Holocene RSL rise to be 0.1-0.2 mm/yr faster at Roanoke Island than at Cedar Island. However, a non-linear difference in RSL between the two study regions (particularly from ∼0 CE to ∼1250 CE) indicates that additional local- to regional-scale processes drove centennial-scale RSL change in North Carolina. Therefore, the Cedar Island and Roanoke Island records should be considered as independent of one another. Between-site differences on sub-millennial timescales cannot be adequately explained by non-stationary tides, sediment compaction, or local sediment dynamics. We propose that a period of accelerating RSL rise from ∼600 CE to 1100 CE that is present at Roanoke Island (and other sites north of Cape Hatteras at least as far as Connecticut), but absent at Cedar Island (and other sites south of Cape Hatteras at least as far as northeastern Florida) is a local-to regional-scale effect of dynamic ocean and/or atmospheric circulation.

  20. Delayed recolonization of foraminifera in a suddenly flooded tidal (former freshwater) marsh in Oregon (USA): Implications for relative sea-level reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milker, Yvonne; Horton, Benjamin P.; Khan, Nicole S.; Nelson, Alan R.; Witter, Robert C.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Ewald, Michael; Brophy, Laura; Bridgeland, William T.

    2016-04-01

    Stratigraphic sequences beneath salt marshes along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast preserve 7000 years of plate-boundary earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. The sequences record rapid rises in relative sea level during regional coseismic subsidence caused by great earthquakes and gradual falls in relative sea level during interseismic uplift between earthquakes. These relative sea-level changes are commonly quantified using foraminiferal transfer functions with the assumption that foraminifera rapidly recolonize salt marshes and adjacent tidal flats following coseismic subsidence. The restoration of tidal inundation in the Ni-les'tun unit (NM unit) of the Bandon Marsh National Wildlife Refuge (Oregon), following extensive dike removal in August 2011, allowed us to directly observe changes in foraminiferal assemblages that occur during rapid "coseismic" (simulated by dike removal with sudden tidal flooding) and "interseismic" (stabilization of the marsh following flooding) relative sea-level changes analogous to those of past earthquake cycles. We analyzed surface sediment samples from 10 tidal stations at the restoration site (NM unit) from mudflat to high marsh, and 10 unflooded stations in the Bandon Marsh control site. Samples were collected shortly before and at 1- to 6-month intervals for 3 years after tidal restoration of the NM unit. Although tide gauge and grain-size data show rapid restoration of tides during approximately the first 3 months after dike removal, recolonization of the NM unit by foraminifera was delayed at least 10 months. Re-establishment of typical tidal foraminiferal assemblages, as observed at the control site, required 31 months after tidal restoration, with Miliammina fusca being the dominant pioneering species. If typical of past recolonizations, this delayed foraminiferal recolonization affects the accuracy of coseismic subsidence estimates during past earthquakes because significant postseismic uplift may shortly follow

  1. Land uplift and relative sea-level changes in the Loviisa area, southeastern Finland, during the last 8000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miettinen, A.; Eronen, M.; Hyvaerinen, H.

    1999-09-01

    Southeastern Finland belongs to the area covered by the Weichselian ice sheet, where the release of the ice load caused a rapid isostatic rebound during the postglacial time. While the mean overall apparent uplift is of the order of 2 mm/yr today, in the early Holocene time it was several times higher. A marked decrease in the rebound rate occurred around 8500 BP, however, since then the uplift rate has remained high until today, with a slightly decreasing trend towards the present time. According to current understanding there have neither been temporary increases nor decreases in the rate of uplift during the postglacial time. Even so, it is not known for sure whether there are regional irregularities on the rebound in Finland. Concurrently with land uplift, relative sea-level changes in the Baltic basin were also strongly affected by the global eustatic rise of sea-level. During the early Litorina Sea stage on the southern coast of Finland around 7000 BP, the rise in sea-level exceeded the rate of land uplift, and resulted in a short-lived transgression. The most accurate information on relative sea-level changes in an uplifting area may be obtained from radiocarbon dated events of isolation in small lake basins, as they were cut off from larger bodies of water. The isolations of such basins from the sea may be reliably determined by the recorded changes in the diatom flora in the sediment sequences, at horizons which may be radiometrically dated. In the present study, the isolation-horizons of 13 basins were dated by 26 conventional and 2 AMS radiocarbon dates. According to the available sets of dates, the time span of emergence extends from 8300 BP to the past few hundred years, for lakes from c. 30 m to 1.1 m above the present sea-level. Due to the global rise in sea-level, during the period of 7500-6500 BP, the sea-level rise clearly exceeded the rate of uplift, and resulted in the Litorina transgression, which had an amplitude of around one metre. The

  2. Land uplift and relative sea-level changes in the Loviisa area, southeastern Finland, during the last 8000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miettinen, A.; Eronen, M.; Hyvaerinen, H. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Geology

    1999-09-01

    Southeastern Finland belongs to the area covered by the Weichselian ice sheet, where the release of the ice load caused a rapid isostatic rebound during the postglacial time. While the mean overall apparent uplift is of the order of 2 mm/yr today, in the early Holocene time it was several times higher. A marked decrease in the rebound rate occurred around 8500 BP, however, since then the uplift rate has remained high until today, with a slightly decreasing trend towards the present time. According to current understanding there have neither been temporary increases nor decreases in the rate of uplift during the postglacial time. Even so, it is not known for sure whether there are regional irregularities on the rebound in Finland. Concurrently with land uplift, relative sea-level changes in the Baltic basin were also strongly affected by the global eustatic rise of sea-level. During the early Litorina Sea stage on the southern coast of Finland around 7000 BP, the rise in sea-level exceeded the rate of land uplift, and resulted in a short-lived transgression. The most accurate information on relative sea-level changes in an uplifting area may be obtained from radiocarbon dated events of isolation in small lake basins, as they were cut off from larger bodies of water. The isolations of such basins from the sea may be reliably determined by the recorded changes in the diatom flora in the sediment sequences, at horizons which may be radiometrically dated. In the present study, the isolation-horizons of 13 basins were dated by 26 conventional and 2 AMS radiocarbon dates. According to the available sets of dates, the time span of emergence extends from 8300 BP to the past few hundred years, for lakes from c. 30 m to 1.1 m above the present sea-level. Due to the global rise in sea-level, during the period of 7500-6500 BP, the sea-level rise clearly exceeded the rate of uplift, and resulted in the Litorina transgression, which had an amplitude of around one metre. The

  3. Contemporary sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

    2010-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  4. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  5. Sea-level related resedimentation processes on the northern slope of Little Bahama Bank (Middle Pleistocene to Holocene)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lantzsch, H.; Roth, S.; Reijmer, J.J.G.

    2007-01-01

    -slope depositional environment. The sediment composition indicates sea-level related deposition processes for the past 375000 years (marine isotope stages 1 to 11). The sediments consist of: (i) periplatform ooze (fine-grained particles of shallow-water and pelagic origin) with moderate variations in carbonate...

  6. Coastal lagoons and beach ridges as complementary sedimentary archives for the reconstruction of Holocene relative sea-level changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sander, Lasse; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Fruergaard, Mikkel

    2016-01-01

    Coastal lagoons and beach ridges are genetically independent, though non-continuous, sedimentary archives. We here combine the results from two recently published studies in order to produce an 8000-year-long record of Holocene relative sea-level changes on the island of Samsø, southern Kattegat,...

  7. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  8. Microfacies, Sedimentary Environment and Relative Sea Level Changes of the Ruteh Formation, Sangsar and Makaroud Sections, Central Alborz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leili Bastami

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction According to different paleontological and paleomagnetic studies, Iran was part of the Gondwana during the Permian. The Permian lithostratigraphic units in the Alborz-Azerbaijan are introduced as Doroud, Ruteh and Nesen Formations. The Ruteh Formation, the second depositional cycle of the Permian in the Alborz Basin, have been studied at two stratigraphic sections in the Central Alborz. The Sangsar section located on the south flank of the Central Alborz, 1 km northwest of Mahdishahr city and the Makaroud section located on the north flank of the Central Alborz, about 37 km south of Chalous city. The thickness of the Ruteh Formation at the Sangsar section is 106 m and at the Makaroud section is 222 m. At the Sangsar section the Ruteh Formation is underlain by the Doroud Formation with gradual contact and is overlain by a lateritic horizon. At the Makaroud section the Ruteh Formation disconformably overlies the Doroud Formation and the upper boundary is faulted and the Chalous Formation overlies the Ruteh Formation at this section. The aim of this paper is to analysis microfacies, interpret depositional environments and delineate relative sea level changes of the Ruteh Formation. Other researchers studied the Ruteh Formation at different sections in the Alborz Basin believe that the carbonate sediments of this formation have been deposited in a homoclinal carbonate ramp and consist of two-three 3rd order depositional sequences. But no sedimentological studies have been done at the selected sections in this study.   Material & Methods Two stratigraphic sections of the Ruteh Formation have been selected, measuted and sampled. One hundred sixty three samples (fifty seven samples from Sangsar and one hundred six samples from Makaroud section  were collected and thin sections were prepared from all samples. Afew samples were collected from lower and upper formations. Thin sections were stained with potassium ferricyanide and alizarin

  9. Relative sea-level changes and crustal movements in Britain and Ireland since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shennan, Ian; Bradley, Sarah L.; Edwards, Robin

    2018-05-01

    The new sea-level database for Britain and Ireland contains >2100 data points from 86 regions and records relative sea-level (RSL) changes over the last 20 ka and across elevations ranging from ∼+40 to -55 m. It reveals radically different patterns of RSL as we move from regions near the centre of the Celtic ice sheet at the last glacial maximum to regions near and beyond the ice limits. Validated sea-level index points and limiting data show good agreement with the broad patterns of RSL change predicted by current glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The index points show no consistent pattern of synchronous coastal advance and retreat across different regions, ∼100-500 km scale, indicating that within-estuary processes, rather than decimetre- and centennial-scale oscillations in sea level, produce major controls on the temporal pattern of horizontal shifts in coastal sedimentary environments. Comparisons between the database and GIA model predictions for multiple regions provide potentially powerful constraints on various characteristics of global GIA models, including the magnitude of MWP1A, the final deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet and the continued melting of Antarctica after 7 ka BP.

  10. Sandy berm and beach-ridge formation in relation to extreme sea-levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B; Kroon, Aart

    2013-01-01

    The formation of berms and their transformation into beach ridges in a micro-tidal environment is coupled to wave run-up and overtopping during extreme sea levels. A straight-forward comparison between extreme sea levels due to storm-surges and active berm levels is impossible in the semi...... prograding spit on the south-eastern Baltic shores of Zealand, Denmark. The modern, sandy beach at this location consists of a beachface with a shallow incipient berm, a mature berm, and a dune-covered beach ridge. It borders a beach-ridge plain to the west, where more than 20 N–S oriented beach ridges...... and swales are present. Measured water-level data from 1991 to 2012 and topographical observations, carried out during fair weather period and during a storm event, provided the basis for a conceptual model exhibiting berm formation and transformation into the local beach-ridge system. The character...

  11. Perceptions of Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Possible Consequences Relate Mainly to Self-Valuation of Science Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Pittfield, Taryn; Jeitner, Christian

    2016-05-01

    This study examines perceptions of climate change and sea level rise in New Jersey residents in 2012 and 2014. Different surveys have shown declines in interest and concern about climate change and sea level rise. Climate change and increasing temperatures have an anthropogenic cause, which relates to energy use, making it important to examine whether people believe that it is occurring. In late 2012 New Jersey experienced Super storm Sandy, one of the worst hurricanes in its history, followed by public discussion and media coverage of stronger more frequent storms due to climate change. Using structured interviews, we tested the null hypotheses that there were no differences in perceptions of 1260 interviewees as a function of year of the survey, age, gender, years of education, and self-evaluation of science knowledge (on a scale of 1 to 5). In 2012 460 of 639 (72%) rated "global warming occurring" as "certain" (#4) or "very certain" (#5) compared with 453 of 621 (73%) in 2014. For "due to human activities" the numbers of "certain" or "very certain" were 71% in 2012, and 67% in 2014 and for sea level rise the numbers were 64% and 70%. There were some inconsistent between-year differences with higher ratings in 2012 for 3 outcomes and higher ratings in 2014 for 5 outcomes. However, for 25 questions relative to climate change, sea level rise, and the personal and ecological effects of sea level rise, self-evaluation of science knowledge, independent of years of education, was the factor that entered 23 of the models, accounting for the most variability in ratings. People who believed they had a "high knowledge" (#4) or "very high knowledge" (#5) of science rated all issues as more important than did those people who rated their own scientific knowledge as average or below average.

  12. Nature of global large-scale sea level variability in relation to atmospheric forcing: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng

    1998-03-01

    The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equation model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to January 1994. The physical nature of sea level's temporal variability from periods of days to a year is examined on the basis of spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements. The study elucidates and diagnoses the inhomogeneous physics of sea level change in space and frequency domain. At midlatitudes, large-scale sea level variability is primarily due to steric changes associated with the seasonal heating and cooling cycle of the surface layer. In comparison, changes in the tropics and high latitudes are mainly wind driven. Wind-driven variability exhibits a strong latitudinal dependence in itself. Wind-driven changes are largely baroclinic in the tropics but barotropic at higher latitudes. Baroclinic changes are dominated by the annual harmonic of the first baroclinic mode and is largest off the equator; variabilities associated with equatorial waves are smaller in comparison. Wind-driven barotropic changes exhibit a notable enhancement over several abyssal plains in the Southern Ocean, which is likely due to resonant planetary wave modes in basins semienclosed by discontinuities in potential vorticity. Otherwise, barotropic sea level changes are typically dominated by high frequencies with as much as half the total variance in periods shorter than 20 days, reflecting the frequency spectra of wind stress curl. Implications of the findings with regards to analyzing observations and data assimilation are discussed.

  13. The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

    1996-01-01

    The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

  14. Modeling of Coastal Inundation, Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, USA 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...tive comments on the manuscript. Permission was granted by the Chief, USACE, to publish this information. LITERATURE CITED Blanton, B.; Stillwell, L...Geospatial Center. http://www.agc.army.mil/ (accessed February 29, 2012). Vickery, P.; Wadhera, D.; Cox, A.; Cardone , V.; Hanson, J., and Blanton, B

  15. Accelerated relative sea-level rise and rapid coastal erosion: Testing a causal relationship for the Louisiana barrier islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, J.H.; Sallenger, A.H.; Hansen, M.E.; Jaffe, B.E.

    1997-01-01

    The role of relative sea-level rise as a cause for the rapid erosion of Louisiana's barrier island coast is investigated through a numerical implementation of a modified Bruun rule that accounts for the low percentage of sand-sized sediment in the eroding Louisiana shoreface. Shore-normal profiles from 150 km of coastline west of the Mississippi delta are derived from bathymetric surveys conducted during the 1880s. 1930s and 1980s. An RMS difference criterion is employed to test whether an equilibrium profile form is maintained between survey years. Only about half the studied profiles meet the equilibrium Criterion this represents a significant limitation on the potential applicability of the Bruun rule. The profiles meeting the equilibrium criterion, along with measured rates of relative sea-level rise, are used to hindcast shoreline retreat rates at 37 locations within the study area. Modeled and observed shoreline retreat rates show no significant correlation. Thus in terms of the Bruun approach relative sea-level rise has no power for hindcasting (and presumably forecasting) rates of coastal erosion for the Louisiana barrier islands.

  16. Tropical cyclone induced asymmetry of sea level surge and fall and its presentation in a storm surge model with parametric wind fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

    The asymmetry of tropical cyclone induced maximum coastal sea level rise (positive surge) and fall (negative surge) is studied using a three-dimensional storm surge model. It is found that the negative surge induced by offshore winds is more sensitive to wind speed and direction changes than the positive surge by onshore winds. As a result, negative surge is inherently more difficult to forecast than positive surge since there is uncertainty in tropical storm wind forecasts. The asymmetry of negative and positive surge under parametric wind forcing is more apparent in shallow water regions. For tropical cyclones with fixed central pressure, the surge asymmetry increases with decreasing storm translation speed. For those with the same translation speed, a weaker tropical cyclone is expected to gain a higher AI (asymmetry index) value though its induced maximum surge and fall are smaller. With fixed RMW (radius of maximum wind), the relationship between central pressure and AI is heterogeneous and depends on the value of RMW. Tropical cyclone's wind inflow angle can also affect surge asymmetry. A set of idealized cases as well as two historic tropical cyclones are used to illustrate the surge asymmetry.

  17. Emergent Marine Terraces in Cebu Island, Philippines and Their Implications for Relative Sea Level Changes in the Late Quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, N. T.; Sarmiento, K. J. S.; Maxwell, K. V.; Soberano, O. B.; Dimalanta, C. B.

    2017-12-01

    The remarkable preservation and extensive distribution of emergent marine terraces in the Philippines allow us to study relative sea level changes and tectonic processes during the Late Quaternary. While higher uplift rates and possible prehistoric coseismic events are recorded by emergent coral reefs facing subduction zones, the central Philippine islands are reported to reflect vertical tectonic stability as they are distant from trenches. To constrain the coastal tectonics of the central Philippine region, we studied emergent sea level indicators along the coasts of northern Cebu Island in Tabuelan, San Remigio, and Bogo City. Upper steps of marine terraces were interpreted from IFSAR-derived DEMs, in which at least two and seven steps were identified along the west (Tabuelan) and east (Bogo) coasts, respectively. In Tabuelan, two extensive terrace steps (TPT) were interpreted with TPT1 at 5-13 m above mean sea level (amsl) and TPT2 at 27-44 m amsl. Five to possibly seven terrace steps (BPT) were delineated in Bogo City with elevations from lowest (BPT1) to highest (BPT7) at BPT1: 4-6 m, BPT2: 12-18 m, BPT3: 27-33 m, BPT4: 39-46 m, BPT5: 59-71 m, BPT6: 80-92 m, and BPT7: 103-108 m amsl. These upper terraces are inferred to be Late Pleistocene in age based on an initial MIS 5e age reported for a 5-m-high terrace in Mactan Island. At some sites, even lower and narrower terrace surfaces were observed, consisting of cemented coral rubble that surround eroded and attached corals. These lower carbonate steps, with elevations ranging from 1 to 3 m amsl, further provide clues on relative sea level changes and long-term tectonic deformation across Cebu Island.

  18. Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States : Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haer, Toon; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kearney, Michael; Moll, Henk

    2013-01-01

    Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the

  19. Sea level and climate variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1985-01-01

    Review paper, ESA Symposium on Application of Satellite Data to Climate Modelling. Alpbach (Austria) Sea level is an essential component of the climate system, on which many human activities in the coastal zone depend. Climate variations leading to changes in relative sea level are

  20. Paleochannels related to late quaternary sea-level changes in Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jair Weschenfelder

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The geological evolution of the continental shelf and in the coastal zone of southern Brazil during the Quaternary period is addressed in this study. High-resolution seismic records obtained at the Patos Lagoon revealed the presence of channels that deeply dissected the coastal zone before the formation of the modern, low-relief, coastal plain. Two periods of channel incision are inferred, based mainly on seismic records. The paleodrainage paths mapped from the seismic records can be connected with those recognized by previous studies on the adjacent continental shelf and slope. Upstream, the drainage incised mainly into the coastal prism deposited during previous sea-level highstand events. The paleodrainage network, recognized on the coastal plain and continental shelf, represents a river-shelf system, linking the drainage basin to the depositional settings on the marginal basin, bypassing the continental shelf exposed during a forced regression event. The drainage incised into the coastal plain and continental shelf of Rio Grande do Sul played an important role in the basin-margin architecture, facies distribution and accommodation during the Quaternary sea-level fluctuations.A evolução geológica da plataforma continental e zona costeira do sul do Brasil no período Quaternário é aqui enfocada. Registros sísmicos de alta resolução da Lagoa dos Patos revelaram canais que dissecaram profundamente a região antes da formação da planície costeira atual. Dois períodos de incisão de canal são inferidos, baseados principalmente em registros sísmicos. Os cursos fluviais mapeados por sísmica podem ser conectados àqueles reconhecidos na plataforma continental adjacente por estudos anteriores. à montante, a incisão da drenagem ocorreu principalmente no prisma sedimentar costeiro depositado durante eventos pretéritos de nível do mar alto. A rede de paleodrenagem, reconhecida na planície costeira e na plataforma continental

  1. Palaeoenvironments and changes in relative sea level during the last interglaciation at Langelandselv, Jameson Land, East Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vosgerau, H.; Funder, Svend Visby; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Coastal cliffs and stream cut sections at Langelandselv on Jameson Land show a 22 m thick sedimentary succession reflecting the development of shallow marine and fluvial environments during the last interglaciation. The shallow marine sediments were deposited in upper shoreface, back......-barrier, and delta environments during a rise in the relative sea level from 0 to 18 m. The interglacial succession ends with glaciotectonically dislocated fluvial sand, and is capped by alternating beds of lodgement till and fluvial sand, deposited during the Early Weichselian. The age is determined...

  2. Geriatric fall-related injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefny, Ashraf F; Abbas, Alaa K; Abu-Zidan, Fikri M

    2016-06-01

    Falls are the leading cause of geriatric injury. We aimed to study the anatomical distribution, severity, and outcome of geriatric fall-related injuries in order to give recommendations regarding their prevention. All injured patients with an age ≥ 60 years who were admitted to Al-Ain Hospital or died in the Emergency Department due to falls were prospectively studied over a four year period. We studied 92 patients. Fifty six of them (60.9%) were females. The mean (standard deviation) of age was 72.2 (9.6) years. Seventy three (89%) of all incidents occurred at home. Eighty three patients (90.2%) fell on the same level. The median (range) ISS was 4 (1-16) and the median GCS (range) was 15 (12-15). The lower limb was the most common injured body region (63%). There were no statistical significant differences between males and females regarding age, ISS, and hospital stay (p = 0.85, p = 0.57, and p = 0.35 respectively). The majority of geriatric fall-related injuries were due to fall from the same level at home. Assessment of risk factors for falls including home hazards is essential for prevention of geriatric fall-related injuries.

  3. Long-Term Design of Mangrove Landfills as an Effective Tide Attenuator under Relative Sea-Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Takagi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A mangrove ecosystem is an important option in Ecosystem based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR. The effectiveness of an artificial mangrove landfill in reducing tidal amplitudes was studied by performing a coupled numerical model that simulated wave propagation and soil consolidation. The constructed model simulated the propagation of tide over an artificial landfill that was subjected to land subsidence, sea-level rise, vegetation growth, and sediment deposition. A case study analysis confirmed that the tidal amplitudes are reduced if the initial elevation of the landfill is appropriately considered to achieve an equilibrium state of the landfill over its lifetime. Sediment deposition may be the only dependable source to sustain the surface elevation of a mangrove with relative sea-level rise. Sediment deposition is important to promote vegetation growth, which in turn contributes to sedimentation by enhancing a tranquil hydrodynamic environment. An insufficient initial elevation of the landfill will result in less effective protection against tidal propagation after it substantially subsides.

  4. Evolution of the Rømø barrier island in the Wadden Sea: Impacts of sea-level change on coastal morphodynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter

    , and falling sea-level, whereas wash-over sedimentation was promoted during periods of rapid sea-level rise when shoreface, beach and coastal dune deposits were reworked. In contrast, lagoonal sedimentation has been relatively continuous and kept pace with the long-term Holocene sea-level rise. Our findings...

  5. Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

  6. Astronomical Pacing of Relative Sea Level through OAE2 from the Expanded SH#1 Core, Southern Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M. M.; Sageman, B. B.; Oakes, R. L.; Bralower, T. J.; Parker, A. L.; Leckie, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Proximal marine strata of the North American Western Interior Basin (WIB) preserve a rich record of faunal turnover linked to Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2 - 94 Ma), a pronounced Late Cretaceous carbon cycle perturbation interpreted to reflect global warming and possible ocean acidification. To develop a more robust synthesis of paleobiologic and geochemical datasets spanning this major Earth-life transition, we drilled a 131-meter core (SH#1) on the Kaiparowits Plateau of southern Utah, recovering the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary (CTB) interval of the Tropic Shale. A 17.5-meter positive excursion in high-resolution bulk carbon isotope chemostratigraphy (δ13Corg) of SH#1 characterizes the most expanded and detailed record of OAE2 recovered from the WIB. Additionally, we detect statistically significant evidence for astronomical cycles in a companion δ13Ccarb dataset, using advanced spectral techniques (evolutive average spectral misfit). Bandpass filtering and tracing of the short eccentricity cycle (97 ka) permit development of a floating astronomical time scale (ATS) for the CTB interval. The presence of radioisotopic dates within the time series provides an independent check on astrochronologic interpretations. We attribute some depleted δ13Ccarb values in SH#1, which cyclically punctuate the OAE2 excursion, to preferential carbonate diagenesis driven by periodic sea level oscillations. Accordingly, major flooding surfaces in SH#1 correlate well to an existing sequence stratigraphic framework from shoreface facies of the Markagunt Plateau ( 100 km west). Comparing the ATS and sequence stratigraphic surfaces in SH#1, we observe that stable eccentricity cycles (405 ka) pace stratigraphic sequences and associated saw-toothed trends in sedimentation rate estimates through OAE2. Furthermore, short eccentricity cycles pace nested parasequences. These results confirm astronomical and, therefore, climatic pacing of relative sea level trends during OAE2 in the WIB. The

  7. Sea level report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    Study of Cenozoic Era sea levels shows a continual lowering of sea level through the Tertiary Period. This overall drop in sea level accompanied the Pleistocene Epoch glacio-eustatic fluctuations. The considerable change of Pleistocene Epoch sea level is most directly attributable to the glacio-eustatic factor, with a time span of 10 5 years and an amplitude or range of approximately 200 m. The lowering of sea level since the end of the Cretaceous Period is attributed to subsidence and mid-ocean ridges. The maximum rate for sea level change is 4 cm/y. At present, mean sea level is rising at about 3 to 4 mm/y. Glacio-eustacy and tectono-eustacy are the parameters for predicting sea level changes in the next 1 my. Glacio-eustatic sea level changes may be projected on the basis of the Milankovitch Theory. Predictions about tectono-eustatic sea level changes, however, involve predictions about future tectonic activity and are therefore somewhat difficult to make. Coastal erosion and sedimentation are affected by changes in sea level. Erosion rates for soft sediments may be as much as 50 m/y. The maximum sedimentation accumulation rate is 20 m/100 y

  8. Tidal notches, coastal landforms and relative sea-level changes during the Late Quaternary at Ustica Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlani, Stefano; Antonioli, Fabrizio; Cavallaro, Danilo; Chirco, Pietro; Caldareri, Francesco; Martin, Franco Foresta; Morticelli, Maurizio Gasparo; Monaco, Carmelo; Sulli, Attilio; Quarta, Gianluca; Biolchi, Sara; Sannino, Gianmaria; de Vita, Sandro; Calcagnile, Lucio; Agate, Mauro

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we present and discuss data concerning the morphostructural evolution at Ustica Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) during Late Quaternary. New insights on the relative sea-level changes of Ustica are coming from data collected during a geomorphological field survey around the island, together with the bathymetric analysis of the surrounding seabed and 14C datings on samples of speleothems, flowstones and marine shells found inside three selected sea caves. The survey was mainly accomplished on June 2015 through the first complete snorkel investigation off the about 18 km-long volcanic coast of the island, which allowed to precisely define location, relationship and morphometric features of coastal landforms associated with modern sea level. This study highlights the occurrence, for the first time in the Mediterranean, of tidal notches in correspondence of carbonate inclusions in volcanic rocks. The elevation of the modern tidal notch suggests that no significant vertical deformations occurred in the southeastern and eastern sectors of Ustica in the last 100 years. However, the presence of pillow lavas along the coast demonstrates that Ustica was affected by a regional uplift since the Late Quaternary, as also confirmed by MIS5.5 deposits located at about 30 m a.s.l., which suggests an average uplift rate of 0.23 mm/y. Radiocarbon dating of fossil barnacles collected inside the Grotta Segreta cave indicate an age of 1823 ± 104 cal. BP. The difference in height with respect to living barnacles in the same site suggests that their present elevation could be related to stick-slip coseismic deformations caused by the four earthquake sequences (two of which with Mw = 4.63 ± 0.46) that strongly struck the island between 1906 and 1924.

  9. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

    2013-04-01

    Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

  10. Exploring mechanisms of compaction in salt-marsh sediments using Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brain, Matthew J.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Vane, Christopher H.; Cahill, Niamh; Hill, Troy D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Horton, Benjamin P.

    2017-07-01

    Salt-marsh sediments provide precise and near-continuous reconstructions of Common Era relative sea level (RSL). However, organic and low-density salt-marsh sediments are prone to compaction processes that cause post-depositional distortion of the stratigraphic column used to reconstruct RSL. We compared two RSL reconstructions from East River Marsh (Connecticut, USA) to assess the contribution of mechanical compression and biodegradation to compaction of salt-marsh sediments and their subsequent influence on RSL reconstructions. The first, existing reconstruction ('trench') was produced from a continuous sequence of basal salt-marsh sediment and is unaffected by compaction. The second, new reconstruction is from a compaction-susceptible core taken at the same location. We highlight that sediment compaction is the only feasible mechanism for explaining the observed differences in RSL reconstructed from the trench and core. Both reconstructions display long-term RSL rise of ∼1 mm/yr, followed by a ∼19th Century acceleration to ∼3 mm/yr. A statistically-significant difference between the records at ∼1100 to 1800 CE could not be explained by a compression-only geotechnical model. We suggest that the warmer and drier conditions of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) resulted in an increase in sediment compressibility during this time period. We adapted the geotechnical model by reducing the compressive strength of MCA sediments to simulate this softening of sediments. 'Decompaction' of the core reconstruction with this modified model accounted for the difference between the two RSL reconstructions. Our results demonstrate that compression-only geotechnical models may be inadequate for estimating compaction and post-depositional lowering of susceptible organic salt-marsh sediments in some settings. This has important implications for our understanding of the drivers of sea-level change. Further, our results suggest that future climate changes may make salt

  11. Arctic Sea Level Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is very difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. This thesis addresses many of these issues, and discusses strategies to help achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from...... 1950 to today.The primary record of historical sea level, on the order of several decades to a few centuries, is tide gauges. Tide gauge records from around the world are collected in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, and includes data along the Arctic coasts. A reasonable...... amount of data is available along the Norwegian and Russian coasts since 1950, and most published research on Arctic sea level extends cautiously from these areas. Very little tide gauge data is available elsewhere in the Arctic, and records of a length of several decades,as generally recommended for sea...

  12. Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2015-05-01

    Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  13. Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

  14. Sea level trend and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5-25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian-Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian-western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Nino events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Nina episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986-2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr-1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr-1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates

  15. Holocene relative sea level variations at the spit system Feddet (Denmark) resolved by ground-penetrating radar and geomorphological data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B

    Estimates of Holocene sea-level variations have been presented in a range of studies based on different approaches, including interpretation of internal beach ridge characteristics from ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and geomorphological data. We present GPR data and geomorphological observations...... of independent GPR and geomorphologic data collected across the recent and sub-recent beach ridge deposits. The data analyses include coastal topography, internal dips of beach ridge layers, and sea-level measurements. A clear change in characteristic layer dip is observed between beach face and upper shoreface...

  16. Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

    2016-02-01

    Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021

  17. Mean relative sea level rise along the coasts of the China Seas from mid-20th to 21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nan; Han, Guoqi; Yang, Jingsong

    2018-01-01

    Mean relative sea level (MRSL) rise has caused more frequent flooding in many parts of the world. The MRSL rise varies substantially from place to place. Here we use tide-gauge data and satellite measurements to examine past MRSL trends for the coasts of the China Seas. We then combine climate model output and satellite observations to provide MRSL projections in the 21st century. The MRSL trend based on tide-gauge data shows substantial regional variations, from 1 to 5 mm/yr. The vertical land motion (VLM) based on altimetry and tide-gauge (ATG) data indicates large land subsidence at some tide-gauge locations, consistent with the Global Positioning Systems (GPS)-based VLM but different significantly from small uplift estimated by a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model, which suggests other important factors causing the VLM instead of the GIA process. When GPS- or ATG-based VLM estimates are used, the projected MRSL rise between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 at tide-gauge sites varies from 60 to 130 cm under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our projections are significantly larger than those of IPCC and other literature, as a result of accounting for the land subsidence derived from observations. Steric and dynamic ocean effects and land-ice melt effects are comparable (about 30 cm each) and do not vary much over the tide-gauge locations. The VLM effect varies from -10 to 60 cm. The projections between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under RCP4.5 show a similar spatial distribution to that under RCP8.5, with a smaller amount of rise by 18 cm on average for this region.

  18. Monitoring Rates of Subsidence and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Low-Elevation Coastal Zones: A New Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tornqvist, T. E.; Jankowski, K. L.; Fernandes, A. M.; Keogh, M.; Nienhuis, J.

    2017-12-01

    Low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs) that often host large population centers are particularly vulnerable to accelerating rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Traditionally, tide-gauge records are used to obtain quantitative data on rates of RSLR, given that they are perceived to capture the rise of the sea surface, as well as land subsidence which is often substantial in such settings. We argue here that tide gauges in LECZs often provide ambiguous data because they ultimately measure RSLR with respect to a benchmark that is typically anchored tens of meters deep. This is problematic because the prime target of interest is usually the rate of RSLR with respect to the land surface. We illustrate this problem with newly obtained rod surface elevation table - marker horizon (RSET-MH) data from coastal Louisiana (n = 274) that show that shallow subsidence in the uppermost 5-10 m accounts for 60-85% of total subsidence. Since benchmarks in this region are anchored at 23 m depth on average, tide-gauge records by definition do not capture this important process and thus underestimate RSLR by a considerable amount. We show how RSET-MH data, combined with GPS and satellite altimetry data, enable us to bypass this problem. Rates of RSLR in coastal Louisiana over the past 6-10 years are 12 ± 8 mm/yr, considerably higher than numbers reported in recent studies based on tide-gauge analysis. Subsidence rates, averaged across this region, total about 9 mm/yr. It is likely that the problems with tide-gauge data are not unique to coastal Louisiana, so we suggest that our new approach to RSLR measurements may be useful in LECZs worldwide, with considerable implications for metropolitan areas like New Orleans that are located within such settings.

  19. Preventing Falls and Related Fractures

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... slowed reflexes. Drinking alcoholic beverages also increases the risk of falling. Alcohol slows reflexes and response time; causes dizziness, sleepiness, or lightheadedness; alters balance; and encourages risky behaviors that can lead to falls. The Force and Direction of a Fall The ...

  20. Caribbean Sea Level Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Crespo Jones, H.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past 500 years almost 100 tsunamis have been observed in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic, with at least 3510 people having lost their lives to this hazard since 1842. Furthermore, with the dramatic increase in population and infrastructure along the Caribbean coasts, today, millions of coastal residents, workers and visitors are vulnerable to tsunamis. The UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunamis and other Coastal Hazards for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) was established in 2005 to coordinate and advance the regional tsunami warning system. The CARIBE EWS focuses on four areas/working groups: (1) Monitoring and Warning, (2) Hazard and Risk Assessment, (3) Communication and (4) Education, Preparedness and Readiness. The sea level monitoring component is under Working Group 1. Although in the current system, it's the seismic data and information that generate the initial tsunami bulletins, it is the data from deep ocean buoys (DARTS) and the coastal sea level gauges that are critical for the actual detection and forecasting of tsunamis impact. Despite multiple efforts and investments in the installation of sea level stations in the region, in 2004 there were only a handful of sea level stations operational in the region (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Bahamas). Over the past 5 years there has been a steady increase in the number of stations operating in the Caribbean region. As of mid 2012 there were 7 DARTS and 37 coastal gauges with additional ones being installed or funded. In order to reach the goal of 100 operational coastal sea level stations in the Caribbean, the CARIBE EWS recognizes also the importance of maintaining the current stations. For this, a trained workforce in the region for the installation, operation and data analysis and quality control is considered to be critical. Since 2008, three training courses have been offered to the sea level station operators and data analysts. Other

  1. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  2. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  3. Changing Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, David

    2004-04-01

    Flooding of coastal communities is one of the major causes of environmental disasters world-wide. This textbook explains how sea levels are affected by astronomical tides, weather effects, ocean circulation and climate trends. Based on courses taught by the author in the U.K. and the U.S., it is aimed at undergraduate students at all levels, with non-basic mathematics being confined to Appendices and a website http://publishing.cambridge.org/resources/0521532183/.

  4. Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Sadovski

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change. Unlike physical models and semi-empirical models that attempt to approach how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this methodology allows for a discussion of the factor(s that statistically affects sea level rates of change, and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlations.

  5. Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Hongzhi; Sadovski, Alexey; Jeffress, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical...

  6. The coupling of bay hydrodynamics with sediment supply and micro-tidal wetland stability under high rates of relative sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Xu, K.; Restreppo, G. A.; Bentley, S. J.; Meng, X.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Due to global sea level rise, local subsidence and sediment deficit, the Mississippi River (MR) deltaic plain has lost a total of 25% of coastal Louisiana's wetlands during the last century, leading to huge losses of ecological services, economic and social crises. Ecosystem-based restoration strategies which rely on coastal system processes and feedbacks are urgently needed. Understanding linkages between estuarine and coastal systems and the adjacent marshlands will help the designing strategies. To investigate bay hydrodynamics and its impacts on the adjacent micro-tidal wetland stability, hourly measurements of wave, tidal current, and benthic sediment concentration in summer, winter, and spring of 2015-2016 were conducted in Fourleague Bay, Louisiana, USA. The bay-marsh system has been stable for almost 80 years under high relative sea level rising rate, which is 11 km southeast of the Atchafalaya River mouth, with a water depth of 1-3 m. High-temporal resolution data indicate that benthic sediment resuspension is mainly caused by wind-driven waves with a dominant periodicity of 4.8 d. The sediment flux reaches 28 g·m-1·s-1 per unit depth in cm during the events. Net sediment transport is northwestward in summer, and southeastward in winter and spring. Sediment flux available for surrounding marsh varies from 0-500 g·m-1·s-1. An optimal inundation depth of 50 cm is estimated by the equilibrium wetland elevation change model under high relative sea level rising rate of 1.57 cm·yr-1. Seasonal variations of river discharge and wind direction (particularly speeds >3 m·s-1) greatly impact potential sediment contribution from bay to the surrounding wetlands. Three sediment transport regimes are concluded based on the seasonal variations of river discharge and wind direction: the `bypassing' season, the resuspension-accumulation season, and the combined `bypassing' and resuspension-accumulation season. The bay hydrodynamic processes and their impacts on the

  7. Interannual variation of rare earth element abundances in corals from northern coast of the South China Sea and its relation with sea-level change and human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yajing; Peng, Z.; Wei, G.; Chen, T.; Sun, W.; He, J.; Liu, Gaisheng; Chou, C.-L.; Shen, C.-C.

    2011-01-01

    Here we present interannual rare earth element (REE) records spanning the last two decades of the 20th century in two living Porites corals, collected from Longwan Bay, close to the estuarine zones off Wanquan River of Hainan Island and Hong Kong off the Pearl River Delta of Guangdong Province in the northern South China Sea. The results show that both coral REE contents (0.5-40 ng g-1 in Longwan Bay and 2-250 ng g-1 in Hong Kong for La-Lu) are characterized with a declining trend, which are significantly negative correlated with regional sea-level rise (9.4 mm a-1 from 1981 to 1996 in Longwan Bay, 13.7 mm a-1 from 1991 to 2001 in Hong Kong). The REE features are proposed to be resulted from seawater intrusion into the estuaries in response to contemporary sea-level rise. However, the tendency for the coral Er/Nd time series at Hong Kong site is absent and there is no significant relation between Er/Nd and total REEs as found for the coral at Longwan Bay site. The observations are likely attributed to changes of the water discharge and sediment load of Pearl River, which have been significantly affected by intense human activities, such as the construction of dams/reservoirs and riverbed sediment mining, in past decades. The riverine sediment load/discharge ratio of the Pearl River decreased sharply with a rate of 0.02 kg m-3 a-1, which could make significant contribution to the declining trend of coral REE. We propose that coastal corals in Longwan Bay and similar unexplored sites with little influences of river discharge and anthropogenic disruption are ideal candidates to investigate the influence of sea-level change on seawater/coral REE. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2015-01-22

    Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

  9. Fall-related activity avoidance in relation to a history of falls or near falls, fear of falling and disease severity in people with Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kader, Manzur; Iwarsson, Susanne; Odin, Per; Nilsson, Maria H

    2016-06-02

    There is limited knowledge concerning fall-related activity avoidance in people with Parkinson's disease (PD); such knowledge would be of importance for the development of more efficient PD-care and rehabilitation. This study aimed to examine how fall-related activity avoidance relates to a history of self-reported falls/near falls and fear of falling (FOF) as well as to disease severity in people with PD. Data were collected from 251 (61 % men) participants with PD; their median (min-max) age and PD duration were 70 (45-93) and 8 (1-43) years, respectively. A self-administered postal survey preceded a home visit which included observations, clinical tests and interview-administered questionnaires. Fall-related activity avoidance was assessed using the modified Survey of Activities and Fear of Falling in the Elderly (mSAFFE) as well as by using a dichotomous (Yes/No) question. Further dichotomous questions concerned: the presence of FOF and the history (past 6 months) of falls or near falls, followed by stating the number of incidents. Disease severity was assessed according to the Hoehn and Yahr (HY) stages. In the total sample (n = 251), 41 % of the participants reported fall-related activity avoidance; the median mSAFFE score was 22. In relation to a history of fall, the proportions of participants (p fall-related activity avoidance were: non-fallers (30 %), single fallers (50 %) and recurrent fallers, i.e. ≥ 2 falls (57 %). Among those that reported near falls (but no falls), 51 % (26 out of 51) reported fall-related activity avoidance. Of those that reported FOF, 70 % reported fall-related activity avoidance. Fall-related activity avoidance ranged from 24 % in the early PD-stage (HY I) to 74 % in the most severe stages (HY IV-V). Results indicate that fall-related activity avoidance may be related to a history of self-reported falls/near falls, FOF and disease severity in people with PD. Importantly, fall-related activity avoidance is

  10. The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

    2014-05-01

    In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

  11. The Offlap Break Position Vs Sea Level: A Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tropeano, M.; Pieri, P.; Pomar, L.; Sabato, L.

    the offlap break might cause a misinterpretation of the ancient sea-level positions and the inferred relative sea-level changes. 2) both baselevels, the sea level and the wave/tide base, govern sedimentary accumulation in wave/tide dominated shelves and, consequently, two offlap breaks may coexist (beach edge and shoreface edge) in shallow-marine depositional profiles (Carter et al., 1991). In this setting, two seaward-clinobedded lithosomes, separated by an unconformity, may develop during relative still-stand or falls of the sea-level (Hill et al., 1998). In this case, the two stacked lithosomes could be misinterpreted as two different systems tracts, or sequences, and it could led to the construction of an 1 uncorrect curve of sea-level changes. Carter R.M., Abbott S.T., Fulthorpe C.S., Haywick D.W. and Henderson R.A. (1991): Application of global sea-level and sequence-stratigraphic models in Southern Hemi- sphere Neogene strata from New Zealand. Sp. Publ. IAS, 12, 41-65. Hernández- Molina F.J., Fernández-Salas L.M., Lobo F., Somoza L., Diaz-del-Rio V. and Alver- inho Dias J.M. (2000): The infralittoral prograding wedge: a new large-scale prograda- tional sedimentary body in shallow marine environments. Geo-Marine Letters, 20, 109-117. Hill P.R., Longuépée H. and Roberge M. (1998). Live from Canada: forced regression in action; deltaic shoreface sandbodies being formed. Abstracts, 15th Int. Cong. IAS, Alicante (Spain), 427-428. Pomar L. and Tropeano M. (2001). The Cal- carenite di Gravina Formation in Matera (southern Italy): new insights for coarse- grained, large-scale, cross-bedded bodies encased in offshore deposits. AAPG Bull., 85, 661-689. 2

  12. Age of overwash and rate of relative sea-level rise inferred from detrital heads and microatolls of medieval corals at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer, W.; Feuillet, N.; Robert, H.; Brian, A.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Deschamps, P.; Tuttle, M. P.; Wei, Y.; Fuentes, Z.

    2012-12-01

    Coral boulders deposited on Anegada, an island 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench, record overwash dated to AD 1200-1450 and relative sea-level changes that preceded it. Composed largely of Pleistocene limestone, Anegada is less than 8 m above sea level and is fringed on the north and east by a coral reef where Atlantic Ocean waves break. The lowest parts of the island were washed over from the north in AD 1650-1800, as judged from landforms and deposits reported previously (doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9622-6). The coral boulders indicate overwash of higher elevation and earlier age. The boulders were apparently torn from the adjacent reef by a tsunami of nearby origin, as inferred in companion abstracts on geology and modeling. We found the corals scattered in five areas inland from the north shore. Two of the areas show solitary coral heads 1500 m from the reef. The boulders are more numerous in the three other areas, where they are up to 500-700 m from the reef and up to 4 m above sea level. Some were transported over beach ridges or through breaches cut into them. Others are hundreds of meters inland from a modern storm berm. Most rest on the Pleistocene limestone. Many are overturned. Most are broken but few are whole. The largest measured diameter is 2 m and the greatest measured height is 1 m. Most of the boulders are of the brain coral Diploria strigosa, but smaller Porites asteroides and Montastrea annularis are also present. Some of the D. strigosa retain the rounded shape typical of living heads and are dimpled with holes perhaps left by feather-duster worms. The preservation of these features suggests that many of the boulders came ashore alive. We avoided dating a head that shows field evidence for death before transport; an erosional surface cuts across its youngest growth bands and is covered with the remains of encrusting marine organisms. Among the 18 coral boulders dated, 13 form a young group with ages in the range 890±25 to 1020±25 14C yr BP

  13. Relative sea-level changes and glacio-isostatic adjustment on the Magdalen Islands archipelago (Atlantic Canada) from MIS 5 to the late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémillard, Audrey M.; St-Onge, Guillaume; Bernatchez, Pascal; Hétu, Bernard; Buylaert, Jan-Pieter; Murray, Andrew S.; Lajeunesse, Patrick

    2017-09-01

    The Magdalen Islands (Québec, Canada) in the centre of the Gulf of St. Lawrence are located in a strategic position for providing an overview of the relative sea-level (RSL) history of the Maritime Provinces of eastern Canada. Although data are available for the coastal terrestrial areas of the Maritimes, data from the Gulf are very scarce and both the RSL and glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) models extrapolate for this central region. This study provides new stratigraphic and chronological data from four outcrops and two coring sites on the Magdalen Islands. In addition to the five samples used mainly for age control purposes, nine new luminescence ages are presented. With these new data added to the available literature, a new RSL curve is reconstructed for the LGM to the late Holocene period and a partial curve is proposed for the interval between the late MIS 4 to the MIS 3. Data also indicate a few insights for the MIS 5 period. Results reveal that for the LGM to the late Holocene, the curve corresponds to the J-shaped curve scenario recognized in the literature. The RSL changes during this period are the result of glacio-isostatic rebound, migration and collapse of the peripheral forebulge, and eustatic sea-level changes. For the LGM to the early Holocene, glacio-isostatic depression curves displaying a few local differences are also proposed. For the late Holocene, the data constrain the curve between two types of indicators, i.e. marine and terrestrial, and indicate that the RSL has risen at least 3 m during the last two millennia. Sediments dated to the MIS 5 and the interval between the late MIS 4 and the MIS 3 illustrate that the GIA following the LGM also occurred for the MIS 5 interglacial and the MIS 3 interstadial. Finally, recent GIA models are discussed in light of the results of this paper.

  14. Relative sea level in the Western Mediterranean basin: A regional test of the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model and a constraint on late Holocene Antarctic deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Keven; Peltier, W. R.

    2018-03-01

    The Mediterranean Basin is a region of special interest in the study of past and present relative sea level evolution, given its location south of the ice sheets that covered large fractions of Northern Europe during the last glaciation, the large number of biological, geological and archaeological sea level indicators that have been retrieved from its coastal regions, as well as its high density of modern coastal infrastructure. Models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process provide reconstructions of past relative sea level evolution, and can be tested for validity against past sea level indicators from the region. It is demonstrated herein that the latest ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model of the GIA process, the North American component of which was refined using a full suite of geophysical observables, is able to reconcile the vast majority of uniformly analyzed relative sea level constraints available for the Western part of the Mediterranean basin, a region to which it was not tuned. We also revisit herein the previously published interpretations of relative sea level information obtained from Roman-era coastal Mediterranean "fish tanks", analyze the far-field influence of the rate of late Holocene Antarctic ice sheet melting history on the exceptionally detailed relative sea level history available from southern Tunisia, and extend the analysis to complementary constraints on the history of Antarctic ice-sheet melting available from islands in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The analyses reported herein provide strong support for the global "exportability" of the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model, a result that speaks directly to the ability of spherically symmetric models of the internal viscoelastic structure to explain globally distributed observations, while also identifying isolated regions of remaining misfit which will benefit from further study.

  15. Enhanced land subsidence in Galveston Bay, Texas: Interaction between sediment accumulation rates and relative sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Mukaimi, Mohammad E.; Dellapenna, Timothy M.; Williams, Joshua R.

    2018-07-01

    Galveston Bay is the second largest estuary along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, with a watershed containing one of largest concentrations of petroleum and chemical industries globally, as well as Houston, the fifth largest metropolitan area in the USA. Throughout the last century, extensive groundwater extraction to support these industries and an expanding population has resulted in significantly enhanced land subsidence (0.6-3.0 cm yr-1). The highest subsidence rates observed in the bay are within the lower 15 km of the San Jacinto River/Houston Ship Channel region (SJR/HSC), with distal areas in East and West Galveston Bays having subsidence rates on the order of 0.2 cm yr-1. In order to investigate the impacts of subsidence on sedimentation, a series of 22 vibracores were collected throughout the bay, and 210Pb and 137Cs radioisotope geochronologies and grain size distributions were determined. Sediment accumulation rates are highest (1.9 ± 0.5 cm yr-1) in the SJR/HSC, and decrease (sedimentation rates are significantly (p sedimentation rates are lower (as much as 50%) than estimated RSLR, indicating a sediment accretionary deficit. In areas (e.g., Scott Bay) within the SJR/HSC, the bay has deepened by more than 1.5 m, suggesting that sediment accumulation cannot keep pace with RSLR. Ultimately, this has resulted in a loss of coastal wetlands and a conversion of marine habitats from relatively shallow to deeper water settings.

  16. The Barbados Sea Level Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbanks, R. G.; Mortlock, R. A.; Abdul, N. A.; Wright, J. D.; Cao, L.; Mey, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Additional offshore drill cores, nearly 100 new radiometric dates, and more than 1000 kilometers of Multibeam mapping greatly enhance the Barbados Sea Level record. Extensive Multibeam mapping around the entire island covers approximately 2650 km2 of the sea bottom and now integrates the offshore reef topography and Barbados Sea Level Record with the unparalleled onshore core collection, digital elevation maps, and Pleistocene sea level record spanning the past one million years. The reef crest coral, Acropora palmata, remains the stalwart indicator of sea level for many reasons that are validated by our redundant sea level records and redundant dating via Th/U and Pa/U analyses. Microanalysis and densitometry studies better explain why Acropora palmata is so well preserved in the Pleistocene reef records and therefore why it is the species of choice for sea level reconstructions and radiometric dating. New drill cores into reefs that formed during Marine Isotope Stage 3 lead us to a model of diagenesis that allows us to better prospect for unaltered coral samples in older reefs that may be suitable for Th/U dating. Equally important, our diagenesis model reinforces our rigorous sample quality criteria in a more quantitative manner. The Barbados Sea Level record has a sampling resolution of better than 100 years throughout much of the last deglaciation showing unprecedented detail in redundant drill cores. The Melt Water Pulses (MWP1A and MWP1B) are well resolved and the intervening interval that includes the Younger Dryas reveals sea level changes in new detail that are consistent with the terrestrial records of ice margins (see Abdul et al., this section). More than 100 paired Th/U and radiocarbon ages place the Barbados Sea Level Record unambiguously on the radiocarbon time scale for direct comparisons with the terrestrial records of ice margin changes.

  17. ICE-6G models of postglacial relative sea-level history applied to Holocene coral reef and mangrove records of the western Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toscano, M. A.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Gonzalez, J.

    2012-12-01

    Fossil coral reefs and mangrove peat accumulations at western Caribbean sites along a latitudinal gradient from the Florida Keys through Belize and Panama provide dated and interpreted 8,000 year Holocene sea-level records for comparison with RSL predictions of the ICE-6G (VM5A, VM5B; L90) models of glacio-hydro-isostatic adjustment, with and without rotational feedback. These presumably passive continental margin sites provide the means to establish a N-S spatial trend in the varying influences of GIA, eustatic components of Holocene sea level, extent of forebulge collapse and influence of rotational feedback over a 20° latitudinal range. Previous ICE6G (VM5A) model-coral data comparisons for St Croix, USVI, Antigua, Martinique and Barbados (Toscano, Peltier and Drummond, 2011, QSR) along the eastern Caribbean plate and island arc illustrated the close model-data compatibility, the influence of rotational feedback acting as a significant factor in reducing misfits, and the need for high quality in situ data to confirm the extension of the proglacial forebulge into tropical latitudes. The gradient of western Caribbean continental shelf sites comprises a much more varied range of model-data relationships based on extensive combined Acropora palmata (reef crest coral) and Rhizophora mangle (microtidal mangrove) peat datasets in all cases. Starting at the northernmost region with the Florida Keys, there exist negative model misfits to the data, suggesting the possibility of a positive tectonic overprint upon expectations related to the glacial isostatic adjustment process acting alone, even though this region is normally believed to be tectonically stable. The largest multi-proxy database from Belize supports the likelihood of increasing rates of subsidence from north to south in the Belize Lagoon, which may account for numerous positive GIA model-data misfits. The southernmost site at Panama is most similar to Belize in the possible nature of tectonic influences on

  18. Intermittent sea-level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

    2013-10-01

    Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

  19. Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

    Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

  20. Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Change from Coral Microatolls, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

    2017-12-01

    Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the Anthropocene. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level changes in French Polynesia encompassing the last 6,000 years were reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to

  1. Relationship between subjective fall risk assessment and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimada Hiroyuki

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Objective measurements can be used to identify people with risks of falls, but many frail elderly adults cannot complete physical performance tests. The study examined the relationship between a subjective risk rating of specific tasks (SRRST to screen for fall risks and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people. Methods The SRRST was investigated in 5,062 individuals aged 65 years or older who were utilized day-care services. The SRRST comprised 7 dichotomous questions to screen for fall risks during movements and behaviours such as walking, transferring, and wandering. The history of falls and fall-related fractures during the previous year was reported by participants or determined from an interview with the participant's family and care staff. Results All SRRST items showed significant differences between the participants with and without falls and fall-related fractures. In multiple logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, diseases, and behavioural variables, the SRRST score was independently associated with history of falls and fractures. Odds ratios for those in the high-risk SRRST group (≥ 5 points compared with the no risk SRRST group (0 point were 6.15 (p Conclusion These results suggest that subjective ratings by care staff can be utilized to determine the risks of falls and fall-related fractures in the frail elderly, however, these preliminary results require confirmation in further prospective research.

  2. Relationship between subjective fall risk assessment and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people

    OpenAIRE

    Shimada, Hiroyuki; Suzukawa, Megumi; Ishizaki, Tatsuro; Kobayashi, Kumiko; Kim, Hunkyung; Suzuki, Takao

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Objective measurements can be used to identify people with risks of falls, but many frail elderly adults cannot complete physical performance tests. The study examined the relationship between a subjective risk rating of specific tasks (SRRST) to screen for fall risks and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people. Methods The SRRST was investigated in 5,062 individuals aged 65 years or older who were utilized day-care services. The SRRST comprised 7 dichotom...

  3. Relationship between subjective fall risk assessment and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Hiroyuki; Suzukawa, Megumi; Ishizaki, Tatsuro; Kobayashi, Kumiko; Kim, Hunkyung; Suzuki, Takao

    2011-08-12

    Objective measurements can be used to identify people with risks of falls, but many frail elderly adults cannot complete physical performance tests. The study examined the relationship between a subjective risk rating of specific tasks (SRRST) to screen for fall risks and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people. The SRRST was investigated in 5,062 individuals aged 65 years or older who were utilized day-care services. The SRRST comprised 7 dichotomous questions to screen for fall risks during movements and behaviours such as walking, transferring, and wandering. The history of falls and fall-related fractures during the previous year was reported by participants or determined from an interview with the participant's family and care staff. All SRRST items showed significant differences between the participants with and without falls and fall-related fractures. In multiple logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, diseases, and behavioural variables, the SRRST score was independently associated with history of falls and fractures. Odds ratios for those in the high-risk SRRST group (≥ 5 points) compared with the no risk SRRST group (0 point) were 6.15 (p fall, 15.04 (p falls, and 5.05 (p fall-related fractures. The results remained essentially unchanged in subgroup analysis accounting for locomotion status. These results suggest that subjective ratings by care staff can be utilized to determine the risks of falls and fall-related fractures in the frail elderly, however, these preliminary results require confirmation in further prospective research.

  4. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

    2013-01-01

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

  5. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  6. Is sea-level rising?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    correction in the estimation of trends obtained for tide gauge records. The altimeter data permits to prepare spatial maps of sea-level rise trends. We present a map prepared for the Indian Ocean (Figure 4) north of 10oS , which shows a fairly uniform... drawn information from research papers published by the author and report of the IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13: Sea Level Changes, in which the author has served as a ‘Lead Author’. Figure1 is prepared using data from the University of Colorado. Nerem, R...

  7. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  8. PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Alan D.

    2009-12-01

    When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

  9. Falls, a fear of falling and related factors in older adults with complex chronic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, JuHee; Choi, MoonKi; Kim, Chang Oh

    2017-12-01

    To identify factors influencing falls and the fear of falling among older adults with chronic diseases in Korea. The fear of falling and falls in older adults are significant health problems towards which healthcare providers should direct their attention. Further investigation is needed to improve nursing practice specifically decreasing risk of falls and the fear of falling in Korea. Descriptive, cross-sectional survey. A convenience sample of 108 patients was recruited at the geriatric outpatient department of a tertiary hospital in Seoul, Korea. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medication use, fall history, level of physical activity, activities of daily living, mobility, muscle strength, and a fear of falling were investigated. Student's t tests, chi-square tests and multiple linear regressions were used in statistical analysis. Thirty-six participants (33.3%) among 108 subjects reported experiencing ≥1 falls in the past year. Marital status and the use of antipsychotics were associated with falls, while other factors were not significantly related to falls. Only benign prostatic hypertrophy and polypharmacy were significantly related to the fear of falling in the analysis of the relationships between chronic disease, medication use and fear of falling. In the regression model, the number of comorbidities, level of physical activity, activities of daily living and mobility were predictors of a fear of falling. Medication use was marginally significant, in the model. Increasing physical activity, functional fitness and physical independence is important to decrease the fear of falling, and to encourage active and healthy lives in older adults. The findings from this study provide evidence for the development of nursing interventions for older adults. We recommend early screening for a fear of falling and nursing interventions to decrease the fear of falling through enhancing physical activity level and function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Falls and Fall-Related Injuries among Community-Dwelling Adults in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh K Verma

    Full Text Available Falls are the leading cause of unintentional injuries in the U.S.; however, national estimates for all community-dwelling adults are lacking. This study estimated the national incidence of falls and fall-related injuries among community-dwelling U.S. adults by age and gender and the trends in fall-related injuries across the adult life span.Nationally representative data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS 2008 Balance and Dizziness supplement was used to develop national estimates of falls, and pooled data from the NHIS was used to calculate estimates of fall-related injuries in the U.S. and related trends from 2004-2013. Costs of unintentional fall-related injuries were extracted from the CDC's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System.Twelve percent of community-dwelling U.S. adults reported falling in the previous year for a total estimate of 80 million falls at a rate of 37.2 falls per 100 person-years. On average, 9.9 million fall-related injuries occurred each year with a rate of 4.38 fall-related injuries per 100 person-years. In the previous three months, 2.0% of older adults (65+, 1.1% of middle-aged adults (45-64 and 0.7% of young adults (18-44 reported a fall-related injury. Of all fall-related injuries among community-dwelling adults, 32.3% occurred among older adults, 35.3% among middle-aged adults and 32.3% among younger adults. The age-adjusted rate of fall-related injuries increased 4% per year among older women (95% CI 1%-7% from 2004 to 2013. Among U.S. adults, the total lifetime cost of annual unintentional fall-related injuries that resulted in a fatality, hospitalization or treatment in an emergency department was 111 billion U.S. dollars in 2010.Falls and fall-related injuries represent a significant health and safety problem for adults of all ages. The findings suggest that adult fall prevention efforts should consider the entire adult lifespan to ensure a greater public health benefit.

  11. Falls and Fall-Related Injuries among Community-Dwelling Adults in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Santosh K.; Willetts, Joanna L.; Corns, Helen L.; Marucci-Wellman, Helen R.; Lombardi, David A.; Courtney, Theodore K.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Falls are the leading cause of unintentional injuries in the U.S.; however, national estimates for all community-dwelling adults are lacking. This study estimated the national incidence of falls and fall-related injuries among community-dwelling U.S. adults by age and gender and the trends in fall-related injuries across the adult life span. Methods Nationally representative data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2008 Balance and Dizziness supplement was used to develop national estimates of falls, and pooled data from the NHIS was used to calculate estimates of fall-related injuries in the U.S. and related trends from 2004–2013. Costs of unintentional fall-related injuries were extracted from the CDC’s Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System. Results Twelve percent of community-dwelling U.S. adults reported falling in the previous year for a total estimate of 80 million falls at a rate of 37.2 falls per 100 person-years. On average, 9.9 million fall-related injuries occurred each year with a rate of 4.38 fall-related injuries per 100 person-years. In the previous three months, 2.0% of older adults (65+), 1.1% of middle-aged adults (45–64) and 0.7% of young adults (18–44) reported a fall-related injury. Of all fall-related injuries among community-dwelling adults, 32.3% occurred among older adults, 35.3% among middle-aged adults and 32.3% among younger adults. The age-adjusted rate of fall-related injuries increased 4% per year among older women (95% CI 1%–7%) from 2004 to 2013. Among U.S. adults, the total lifetime cost of annual unintentional fall-related injuries that resulted in a fatality, hospitalization or treatment in an emergency department was 111 billion U.S. dollars in 2010. Conclusions Falls and fall-related injuries represent a significant health and safety problem for adults of all ages. The findings suggest that adult fall prevention efforts should consider the entire adult lifespan to ensure a

  12. Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

    To quantify properly the long-term response of sea-level to climate change, land motions must be separated from the apparent or relative sea-level change recorded by conventional tide/sea-level gauges. Here we present a concept for global measurement of the true or “absolute” sea-level change, which combines recent advances in space-based geodetic techniques with plans for a global sea-level network under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Data from initial feasibility tests show that land motion, due to global (plate tectonic), regional (glacial rebound), or local (fluid withdrawal) effects, can probably be measured to ±1cm (on a single measurement basis) by an innovative combination of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tevhniques. By making repeated observations of position at a number of tide gauges using portable, economical GPS receivers in a differential mode relative to the fewer, more stable, but more expensive VLBI observatories, it will be possible to subtract land motion from the relative sea-level signal. Decadal to century scale trends at the 1-2mm y -1 level will be resolvable in the sea-level and vertical land motion time series within about a decade. Detection of subsidence or uplift at specific gauges will allow correction for land motion or deletion of bad data when computing regional or global, i.e. eustatic, sea-level changes. In addition to their applications in oceanography and climate studies, such data will test models by Peltier and other that relate mantle viscosity and deglaciation history to present rates of crustal subsidence or uplift. If the predicted crustal motions are confirmed, we can also have more confidence in the use of historical tide/sea-level gauge records in retrospective studies of sea-level change related to climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. It is concluded that as few as one-third (about 100) of the total number of tide/sea-level gauges (250

  13. Simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change in southwest Scandinavia from inversion of sea level data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Hansen, Jens Morten; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    the relative sea level data. Similar independent data do not exist for ancient times. The purpose of this study is to test two simple inversion approaches for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates for ancient times in areas where a dense coverage of relative...... sea level data exists and well-constrained average lithospheric movement values are known from, for example glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The inversion approaches are tested and used for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates in southwest...... Scandinavia from modern relative sea level data series that cover the period from 1900 to 2000. In both approaches, a priori information is required to solve the inverse problem. A priori information about the average vertical lithospheric movement in the area of interest is critical for the quality...

  14. Lithosphere and upper-mantle structure of the southern Baltic Sea estimated from modelling relative sea-level data with glacial isostatic adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffen, H.; Kaufmann, G.; Lampe, R.

    2014-06-01

    During the last glacial maximum, a large ice sheet covered Scandinavia, which depressed the earth's surface by several 100 m. In northern central Europe, mass redistribution in the upper mantle led to the development of a peripheral bulge. It has been subsiding since the begin of deglaciation due to the viscoelastic behaviour of the mantle. We analyse relative sea-level (RSL) data of southern Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Poland and Lithuania to determine the lithospheric thickness and radial mantle viscosity structure for distinct regional RSL subsets. We load a 1-D Maxwell-viscoelastic earth model with a global ice-load history model of the last glaciation. We test two commonly used ice histories, RSES from the Australian National University and ICE-5G from the University of Toronto. Our results indicate that the lithospheric thickness varies, depending on the ice model used, between 60 and 160 km. The lowest values are found in the Oslo Graben area and the western German Baltic Sea coast. In between, thickness increases by at least 30 km tracing the Ringkøbing-Fyn High. In Poland and Lithuania, lithospheric thickness reaches up to 160 km. However, the latter values are not well constrained as the confidence regions are large. Upper-mantle viscosity is found to bracket [2-7] × 1020 Pa s when using ICE-5G. Employing RSES much higher values of 2 × 1021 Pa s are obtained for the southern Baltic Sea. Further investigations should evaluate whether this ice-model version and/or the RSL data need revision. We confirm that the lower-mantle viscosity in Fennoscandia can only be poorly resolved. The lithospheric structure inferred from RSES partly supports structural features of regional and global lithosphere models based on thermal or seismological data. While there is agreement in eastern Europe and southwest Sweden, the structure in an area from south of Norway to northern Germany shows large discrepancies for two of the tested lithosphere models. The lithospheric

  15. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  16. Barrier response to Holocene sea-level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pejrup, Morten; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Normally it is believed that sea-level rise causes coastal barrier retreat. However, sea-level is only one of the parameters determining the long term coastal development of barrier coasts. Sediment supply is an equally important determinant and may overshadow the effects of sea-level rise....... Conceptually this has been known for a long time but for the first time we can show the relative effect of these two parameters. We have studied three neighboring barrier islands in the Wadden Sea, and described their 3D morphological evolution during the last 8000 years. It appears that the barrier islands...... a much stronger component of sea-level control. The distance between the islands is only 50 km, and therefore our study shows that prediction of barrier development during a period of rising sea level may be more complicated than formerly believed....

  17. The rise of sea level. To understand and to anticipate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-03-01

    By proposing and briefly commenting graphs and drawings, this publication propose brief presentations of the main issues related to sea level rise: global warming and climate disturbance, description of the phenomenon of sea level rise (difference between sea ice and ground ice, melting of glaciers), increase of sea level rise during the twentieth century, territories at risk (examples of Greenland, Tuvalu, Shanghai), acceleration of ice melting during the twenty first century with many coastal areas at risk, already noticed and possible future impacts in France (glaciers runoff, threatened coasts, example of the Xynthia tempest), how to be united and to anticipate (a threat for millions of people, adaptation to sea level rise, limitation of global warming to limit sea level rise)

  18. Detailed Tropical Sea Level Record Spanning the Younger Dryas Chronozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Variability in sea level is a fundamental measure of past changes in continental ice volume and provides an important benchmark to test climate change hypotheses. Records of the most recent deglaciation show two pulses of accelerated sea-level rise (Meltwater Pulses 1A and 1B) separated by an interval of slower sea level rise. The Younger Dryas chronozone falls within the interval between MWP 1A and 1B. It was first described over 100 years ago and remains one of the most studied periods in Earth’s history. The Younger Dryas was originally constrained with 14C dating to the interval between 11,000 and 10,000 14C years BP, which converts to 13,000 to 11,640 calendar years BP. The climatic expression of the Younger Dryas was most pronounced in the circum North Atlantic where climate proxies returned in some regions to near glacial values. Interpretations of the Younger Dryas’ significance range from a catastrophic global cooling event accompanied by Northern hemisphere ice sheet growth to simply regional changes in ocean and air mass mixing zones confined mainly to the North Atlantic. A detailed sea level record containing the interval from the end of MWP 1A to the beginning of MWP 1B (~14,000 to 11,300 years BP) was generated using 26 new U/Th dates from our 2007 Barbados offshore drilling expedition combined with our 1988 expedition measurements. 16 of these dates fall within the Younger Dryas Chronozone. Younger Dryas sea level positions were based on Acropora palmata samples from 3 overlapping and contemporaneous offshore drill cores (RGF 12 and BBDS 9 & 10) and corrected for minor tectonic uplift. From 14,000 to 11,300 years BP, sea level rose from ~81 to 56.5 m below present sea level with an initial rate of 10 m/kyr that decreased smoothly to <5 m/kyr at the base of MWP 1B. At the beginning of the Younger Dryas, sea level was at 69 m below present and rose 8 m by the end of this interval. In the context of the Barbados sea level record, the Younger Dryas

  19. Late Pleistocene Vegetation, Climate and Relative Sea Level Changes in the Southeastern Brazilian Coast, Based on C and N Isotopes and Bio Indicator Analysis of Mangrove Organic Matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pessenda, L. C.R.; Vidotto, E.; Buso, Jr., A. A.; Assarini, Jr., J. P.; Bendassollia, J. A. [Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture (CENA), University of Sao Paulo (USP), Piracicaba, Sao Paulo (Brazil); De Oliveira, P. E. [University of Guarulhos (UNG), Guarulhos, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Macias, F. [' ' Luiz de Queiroz' ' College of Agriculture/USP, Piracicaba, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Ricardi-Branco, F. [University of Campinas - Geosciences Institute, Campinas, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2013-07-15

    On the southeastern Brazilian coast, mangrove organic matter records have been studied by C and N isotopes, pollen and diatom analysis to reconstruct 40 ka of vegetation and climatic history. The {delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N presented more depleted values from 40 to 19 ka BP. The high C/N ratios and depleted isotopic values indicate the predominance of C3 land plants in the location presently occupied by the mangrove vegetation, and a lower sea level than today. The presence of pollen of Ilex, Weinmannia, Symplocos, Drimys and Podocarpus suggest a colder and more humid climate than present. From 19 to 2.2 ka BP a sedimentary hiatus is associated with a sea level rise. The presence of mangrove in its present position since at least 2.200 a BP and the return of the marine coastline are associated with the lowest C/N ratio, more enriched {delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N values and the presence of marine diatoms. (author)

  20. Climate in France during the 21. century - Regionalized scenarios - Reference indices for the metropolitan region - Evolution at sea level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peings, Yannick; Planton, Serge; Deque, Michel; Jamous, Marc; Le Treut, Herve; Gallee, Hubert; Li, Laurent; Jouzel, J.

    2011-01-01

    After some comments on climate modelling (models, scenarios, uncertainties, regional predictions), the first part reports the study of several temperature indices (minimum, average and maximum daily temperature, number of days with abnormally high or low temperature, number of days of heat wave, number of days with negative temperatures, and so on.), precipitation indices (daily and extreme precipitations, dry periods, snow falls). It also discusses soil humidity index, strong wind index, river flow rate, and sea level. The second part reports simulation results for indices in metropolitan France according to the French Aladin-Climat, LMDZ and MAR models. The third volume reports evolutions and predictions of average sea level at the planet scale and along the French coasts, and discusses impacts related to sea level change (coast erosion, submersion, salt intrusion)

  1. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivien Jørgensen

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017 Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108–113

  2. Millennial, centennial and decadal sea- level change in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, A.; Hawkes, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.; Horton, B. P.

    2012-12-01

    Reconstructions of relative sea-level changes on millennial timescales provide data against which to test and calibrate Earth-Ice models. On the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast they constrain the geometry of the Laurentide Ice Sheet's collapsing forebulge. Sea -level data from southeastern Atlantic coast additionally constrain ice-equivalent meltwater input. Here we produce the first Holocene sea-level curve for Florida and Georgia from the St. Mary's River using agglutinated foraminifera preserved in radiocarbon-dated brackish and salt-marsh sediment. The use of foraminfera as sea-level indicators was underpinned by local and regional datasets describing the modern distribution of assemblages that are analogues for those preserved in buried sediment. This approach produced 25 index points that record 5.2 m of relative sea level rise over the last 8000 years with no evidence of a mid Holocene high stand. These reconstructions indicate that existing GIA models do not replicate proxy reconstructions and that northern Florida is subsiding in response to ongoing forebulge collapse at an estimated rate of approximately 0.3 mm/yr. Over multi decadal time scales, detailed sea level reconstructions provide an appropriate geological context for modern rates of sea-level rise. Reconstructions spanning the last 2000 years of known climate variability are important for developing models with predictive capacity that link climate and sea level changes. A reconstruction of sea-level changes since 2000 years BP was developed using a core of brackish marsh sediment from the Nassau River in Florida. Foraminifera estimated the elevation of former sea level with an uncertainty of ± 10 cm. Consistent downcore assemblages indicate that the marsh maintained its tidal elevation for 2000 years. An age depth model was developed for the core results from radiocarbon dating, 210Pb and 137Cs. The resulting relative sea level record was adjusted for the contribution made by glacio

  3. Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

    2016-12-01

    Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.

  4. Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W.; Lombard, A.

    2008-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)

  5. Social and psychologic factors related to falls among the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossey, J M

    1985-08-01

    Studies on falls are reviewed. Little information exists on which social or psychologic factors predispose an older person to fall or to sustain a fall-related injury. Risk of falling appears to be greater among females, the cognitively impaired, and those who use hypnotics, tranquilizers, and diuretics. The potential significance of depression and senile dementia of the Alzheimer's type on the risk of falling is explored. It is suggested that because of the associated impaired judgment, distraction, and psychomotor retardation, the presence of either clinical condition may increase an individual's risk of falling. In the final section of the article, directions for future research are discussed. Development of a systematic research program is suggested including epidemiologic studies of all falls and of medically treated falls. Such studies should be multidisciplinary and include assessment of social and psychologic factors as well as physical and functional health status, ambulatory function, perceptual acuity, and the circumstances surrounding the fall. The psychologic consequences of falling, particularly in the absence of a serious fall-related injury, is identified as an important research area.

  6. Fall Risk Assessment Predicts Fall-Related Injury, Hip Fracture, and Head Injury in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Martin; Eriksson, Joel; Larsson, Berit; Odén, Anders; Johansson, Helena; Lorentzon, Mattias

    2016-11-01

    To investigate the role of a fall risk assessment, using the Downton Fall Risk Index (DFRI), in predicting fall-related injury, fall-related head injury and hip fracture, and death, in a large cohort of older women and men residing in Sweden. Cross sectional observational study. Sweden. Older adults (mean age 82.4 ± 7.8) who had a fall risk assessment using the DFRI at baseline (N = 128,596). Information on all fall-related injuries, all fall-related head injuries and hip fractures, and all-cause mortality was collected from the Swedish Patient Register and Cause of Death Register. The predictive role of DFRI was calculated using Poisson regression models with age, sex, height, weight, and comorbidities as covariates, taking time to outcome or end of study into account. During a median follow-up of 253 days (interquartile range 90-402 days) (>80,000 patient-years), 15,299 participants had a fall-related injury, 2,864 a head injury, and 2,557 a hip fracture, and 23,307 died. High fall risk (DFRI ≥3) independently predicted fall-related injury (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.39-1.49), hip fracture (HR = 1.51, 95% CI =1.38-1.66), head injury (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.03-1.22), and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.35-1.43). DFRI more strongly predicted head injury (HR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.21-1.36 vs HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04-1.11) and hip fracture (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.30-1.53 vs HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.05-1.11) in 70-year old men than in 90-year old women (P Fall risk assessment using DFRI independently predicts fall-related injury, fall-related head injury and hip fracture, and all-cause mortality in older men and women, indicating its clinical usefulness to identify individuals who would benefit from interventions. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

  7. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    OpenAIRE

    In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

  8. Holocene sea-level fluctuation in the southern hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isla, Federico Ignacio

    If rising sea levels dominate in the northern hemisphere (NH), falling or fluctuating sea levels predominate in the southern hemisphere (SH). Endogenic processes (tectonics, isostasy or geoidal changes) could explain local or regional mean sea level (MSL) fluctuations but not an hemispherical one. Evidence from South America, Africa, Antarctica, Australia and the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggest that the Holocene transgression rose above the present MSL, in higher latitudes before the tropics. By plotting latitude against the age of MSL arrival at present coasts, good correlation is observed. Oceanic salinity mixing has been already proposed to explain this mid-Holocene sea-level fluctuation. Climate could be the only factor responsible for this hemisphere-wide behavior of MSL. It has been suggested previously that the climate of the SH precedes that of the NH by 3000 years. The climatic optimum, or maximum warmth, occurred predominantly about 6000 BP in the NH, but about 10-9000 BP in the SH. Short-term climatic effects on the sea level (monsoons, southern oscillation/El Niño phenomena) should have significant occurrences during the past in the windiest oceanic hemisphere. This latitudinal trend in former MSL should be considered when using shorelines as reference points for measuring vertical crustal movements.

  9. Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of 13 cm thickness. Fall descent motions and impact postures were examined by a three-dimensional analyzer. The maximum ground force reaction, velocity of the greater trochanter at impact, and activity of quadriceps and gluteus medius were measured. In all trials of lateral and posterolateral falls, but not of posterior falls, the subjects hit their greater trochanter directly on the mattress. The impact forces were between 2,000 N and 4,000 N. Posterolateral falls showed significantly higher velocity at impact than did posterior falls. The height and the lower limb length exhibited positive correlations with the impact force in all directions of fall. In the lateral fall, there was a positive correlation between the activity of quadriceps and the impact force. In view of the impact point, force, and velocity, the posterolateral fall seemed to carry the highest risk of hip fracture.

  10. Multivariate Regression Approach To Integrate Multiple Satellite And Tide Gauge Data For Real Time Sea Level Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2010-01-01

    The Sea Level Thematic Assembly Center in the EUFP7 MyOcean project aims at build a sea level service for multiple satellite sea level observations at a European level for GMES marine applications. It aims to improve the sea level related products to guarantee the sustainability and the quality...

  11. The 'Falling Box' method in general relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gladush, V.D.

    1998-01-01

    The problems of justification, generalization, and applicability of the 'falling box' method to obtained some exact solutions of the vacuum Einstein equations are investigated. The 'physical' inference of the Reissner-Nordstrom-de Sitter and Kerr metrics is shown. Explanation is given for the well-known relativistic phenomenon which consists in that gravity is created by the double density of the electrical field energy

  12. Amplitude of late Miocene sea-level fluctuations from karst development in reef-slope deposits (SE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reolid, Jesús; Betzler, Christian; Braga, Juan Carlos

    2016-11-01

    A prograding late Miocene carbonate platform in southern Spain revealing different sea-level pinning points was analysed with the aim to increase the accuracy of reconstruction of past sea-level changes. These pinning points are distinct diagenetic zones (DZ) and the position of reef-framework deposits. DZ1 is defined by the dissolution of bioclastic components and DZ2 by calcitic cement precipitation in dissolution pores. Calcite cements are granular and radiaxial fibrous, and are of meteoric origin as deduced from cathodoluminescence, EDX spectroscopy, as well as from δ13C and δ18O isotope analyses. DZ3 has moldic porosity after aragonitic bioclasts with minor granular calcitic cements. DZ1 and DZ2 indicate karstification and the development of a coastal palaeoaquifer during a sea-level lowstand. DZ3 diagenetic features are related to the final subaerial exposure of the section during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Facies and diagenetic data reveal a complete cycle of sea-level fall (23 ± 1 m) and rise (31 ± 1 m). A robust age model based on magneto- and cyclostratigraphy for these deposits places this cycle between 5.89 and 5.87 Ma. Therefore, for the first time, this work allows a direct comparison of an outcrop with a pelagic marine proxy record of a specific Neogene sea-level fluctuation.

  13. The magnitude of a mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the Strait of Makassar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mann, T.; Rovere, A.; Schöne, T.; Klicpera, A.; Stocchi, P.; Lukman, M.; Westphal, H.

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge on the timing andmagnitude of past sea-level changes is essential to understandmodern and futuresea-level variability.Holocene sea-level data fromliterature on thewest coast of Sulawesi, central Indonesia, suggestthat this region experienced two relative sea-level highstands over the last

  14. Chronology of Fluctuating Sea Levels since the Triassic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haq, Bilal U.; Hardenbol, Jan; Vail, Peter R.

    1987-03-01

    Advances in sequence stratigraphy and the development of depositional models have helped explain the origin of genetically related sedimentary packages during sea level cycles. These concepts have provided the basis for the recognition of sea level events in subsurface data and in outcrops of marine sediments around the world. Knowledge of these events has led to a new generation of Mesozoic and Cenozoic global cycle charts that chronicle the history of sea level fluctuations during the past 250 million years in greater detail than was possible from seismic-stratigraphic data alone. An effort has been made to develop a realistic and accurate time scale and widely applicable chronostratigraphy and to integrate depositional sequences documented in public domain outcrop sections from various basins with this chronostratigraphic frame-work. A description of this approach and an account of the results, illustrated by sea level cycle charts of the Cenozoic, Cretaceous, Jurassic, and Triassic intervals, are presented.

  15. Unexplained Falls Are Frequent in Patients with Fall-Related Injury Admitted to Orthopaedic Wards: The UFO Study (Unexplained Falls in Older Patients).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiara, Mussi; Gianluigi, Galizia; Pasquale, Abete; Alessandro, Morrione; Alice, Maraviglia; Gabriele, Noro; Paolo, Cavagnaro; Loredana, Ghirelli; Giovanni, Tava; Franco, Rengo; Giulio, Masotti; Gianfranco, Salvioli; Niccolò, Marchionni; Andrea, Ungar

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate the incidence of unexplained falls in elderly patients affected by fall-related fractures admitted to orthopaedic wards, we recruited 246 consecutive patients older than 65 (mean age 82 ± 7 years, range 65-101). Falls were defined "accidental" (fall explained by a definite accidental cause), "medical" (fall caused directly by a specific medical disease), "dementia-related" (fall in patients affected by moderate-severe dementia), and "unexplained" (nonaccidental falls, not related to a clear medical or drug-induced cause or with no apparent cause). According to the anamnestic features of the event, older patients had a lower tendency to remember the fall. Patients with accidental fall remember more often the event. Unexplained falls were frequent in both groups of age. Accidental falls were more frequent in younger patients, while dementia-related falls were more common in the older ones. Patients with unexplained falls showed a higher number of depressive symptoms. In a multivariate analysis a higher GDS and syncopal spells were independent predictors of unexplained falls. In conclusion, more than one third of all falls in patients hospitalized in orthopaedic wards were unexplained, particularly in patients with depressive symptoms and syncopal spells. The identification of fall causes must be evaluated in older patients with a fall-related injury.

  16. Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

    2014-05-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single

  17. Unexplained Falls Are Frequent in Patients with Fall-Related Injury Admitted to Orthopaedic Wards: The UFO Study (Unexplained Falls in Older Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mussi Chiara

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the incidence of unexplained falls in elderly patients affected by fall-related fractures admitted to orthopaedic wards, we recruited 246 consecutive patients older than 65 (mean age 82±7 years, range 65–101. Falls were defined “accidental” (fall explained by a definite accidental cause, “medical” (fall caused directly by a specific medical disease, “dementia-related” (fall in patients affected by moderate-severe dementia, and “unexplained” (nonaccidental falls, not related to a clear medical or drug-induced cause or with no apparent cause. According to the anamnestic features of the event, older patients had a lower tendency to remember the fall. Patients with accidental fall remember more often the event. Unexplained falls were frequent in both groups of age. Accidental falls were more frequent in younger patients, while dementia-related falls were more common in the older ones. Patients with unexplained falls showed a higher number of depressive symptoms. In a multivariate analysis a higher GDS and syncopal spells were independent predictors of unexplained falls. In conclusion, more than one third of all falls in patients hospitalized in orthopaedic wards were unexplained, particularly in patients with depressive symptoms and syncopal spells. The identification of fall causes must be evaluated in older patients with a fall-related injury.

  18. Falls efficacy, postural balance, and risk for falls in older adults with falls-related emergency department visits: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pua, Yong-Hao; Ong, Peck-Hoon; Clark, Ross Allan; Matcher, David B; Lim, Edwin Choon-Wyn

    2017-12-21

    Risk for falls in older adults has been associated with falls efficacy (self-perceived confidence in performing daily physical activities) and postural balance, but available evidence is limited and mixed. We examined the interaction between falls efficacy and postural balance and its association with future falls. We also investigated the association between falls efficacy and gait decline. Falls efficacy, measured by the Modified Falls Efficacy Scale (MFES), and standing postural balance, measured using computerized posturography on a balance board, were obtained from 247 older adults with a falls-related emergency department visit. Six-month prospective fall rate and habitual gait speed at 6 months post baseline assessment were also measured. In multivariable proportional odds analyses adjusted for potential confounders, falls efficacy modified the association between postural balance and fall risk (interaction P = 0.014): increasing falls efficacy accentuated the increased fall risk related to poor postural balance. Low baseline falls efficacy was strongly predictive of worse gait speed (0.11 m/s [0.06 to 0.16] slower gait speed per IQR decrease in MFES; P falls efficacy but poor postural balance were at greater risk for falls than those with low falls efficacy; however, low baseline falls efficacy was strongly associated with worse gait function at follow-up. Further research into these subgroups of older adults is warranted. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01713543 .

  19. Exploring the relationship between fall risk-increasing drugs and fall-related fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Winter, Sabrina; Vanwynsberghe, Sarah; Foulon, Veerle; Dejaeger, Eddy; Flamaing, Johan; Sermon, An; Van der Linden, Lorenz; Spriet, Isabel

    2016-04-01

    Hospital admissions due to fall-related fractures are a major problem in the aging population. Several risk factors have been identified, including drug use. Most studies often retrieved prescription-only drugs from national databases. These are associated with some limitations as they do not always reliably reproduce the complete patient's active drug list. To evaluate the association between the number of FRIDs intake identified by a standardised medication reconciliation process and a fall-related fracture leading to a hospital admission in older adults. The first cohort has been recruited from one traumatology ward of a tertiary teaching hospital in Belgium and the second cohort has been recruited from 11 community pharmacies in Belgium. A prospective study with two individually matched cohorts was performed. Adult patients (≥75 years) admitted with an injury due to a fall were included in the first cohort (faller group). The second cohort consisted of patients who did not suffer from a fall within the last 6 months (non-faller group). Matching was performed for age, gender, place of residence and use of a walking aid. In both groups, clinical pharmacists and undergraduate pharmacy students obtained the medication history, using a standardised approach. A list of drugs considered to increase the risk of falling was created. It included cardiovascular drugs and drugs acting on the nervous system. A linear mixed model was used to compare the number of fall risk-increasing drugs between fallers and non-fallers. The number of fall risk-increasing drugs in a faller versus a non-faller group. Sixty-one patients were matched with 121 non-fallers. Patients received on average 3.1 ± 2.1 and 3.2 ± 1.8 fall risk-increasing drugs in the faller and in the non-faller group, respectively. The mean number of fall risk-increasing drugs was comparable in both groups (p = 0.844), even after adjusting for alcohol consumption, fear of falling, vision and foot problems (p = 0

  20. Geriatric fall-related injuries | Hefny | African Health Sciences

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Falls are the leading cause of geriatric injury. ... and outcome of geriatric fall-related injuries in order to give recommendations regarding their prevention. Methods: All injured patients with an age ≥ 60 years who were admitted to ...

  1. Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

  2. Total meltwater volume since the Last Glacial Maximum and viscosity structure of Earth's mantle inferred from relative sea level changes at Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf and GIA-induced J˙2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Yokoyama, Yusuke

    2016-02-01

    Inference of globally averaged eustatic sea level (ESL) rise since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) highly depends on the interpretation of relative sea level (RSL) observations at Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf, Australia, which are sensitive to the viscosity structure of Earth's mantle. Here we examine the RSL changes at the LGM for Barbados and Bonaparte Gulf ({{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}}} and {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bon}}}), differential RSL for both sites (Δ {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}},{{Bon}}}) and rate of change of degree-two harmonics of Earth's geopotential due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process (GIA-induced J˙2) to infer the ESL component and viscosity structure of Earth's mantle. Differential RSL, Δ {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}},{{Bon}}} and GIA-induced J˙2 are dominantly sensitive to the lower-mantle viscosity, and nearly insensitive to the upper-mantle rheological structure and GIA ice models with an ESL component of about (120-130) m. The comparison between the predicted and observationally derived Δ {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}},{{Bon}}} indicates the lower-mantle viscosity higher than ˜2 × 1022 Pa s, and the observationally derived GIA-induced J˙2 of -(6.0-6.5) × 10-11 yr-1 indicates two permissible solutions for the lower mantle, ˜1022 and (5-10) × 1022 Pa s. That is, the effective lower-mantle viscosity inferred from these two observational constraints is (5-10) × 1022 Pa s. The LGM RSL changes at both sites, {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bar}}} and {{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bon}}}, are also sensitive to the ESL component and upper-mantle viscosity as well as the lower-mantle viscosity. The permissible upper-mantle viscosity increases with decreasing ESL component due to the sensitivity of the LGM sea level at Bonaparte Gulf ({{RSL}}_{{L}}^{{{Bon}}}) to the upper-mantle viscosity, and inferred upper-mantle viscosity for adopted lithospheric thicknesses of 65 and 100 km is (1-3) × 1020 Pa s for ESL˜130 m and (4-10) × 1020 Pa s for ESL˜125 m. The former solution of (1-3) × 1020

  3. Continuous sea-level reconstructions beyond the Pleistocene: improving the Mediterranean sea-level method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K.; Rohling, E. J.; Amies, J.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level (SL) reconstructions over glacial-interglacial timeframes are critical for understanding the equilibrium response of ice sheets to sustained warming. In particular, continuous and high-resolution SL records are essential for accurately quantifying `natural' rates of SL rise. Global SL changes are well-constrained since the last glacial maximum ( 20,000 years ago, ky) by radiometrically-dated corals and paleoshoreline data, and fairly well-constrained over the last glacial cycle ( 150 ky). Prior to that, however, studies of ice-volume:SL relationships tend to rely on benthic δ18O, as geomorphological evidence is far more sparse and less reliably dated. An alternative SL reconstruction method (the `marginal basin' approach) was developed for the Red Sea over 500 ky, and recently attempted for the Mediterranean over 5 My (Rohling et al., 2014, Nature). This method exploits the strong sensitivity of seawater δ18O in these basins to SL changes in the relatively narrow and shallow straits which connect the basins with the open ocean. However, the initial Mediterranean SL method did not resolve sea-level highstands during Northern Hemisphere insolation maxima, when African monsoon run-off - strongly depleted in δ18O - reached the Mediterranean. Here, we present improvements to the `marginal basin' sea-level reconstruction method. These include a new `Med-Red SL stack', which combines new probabilistic Mediterranean and Red Sea sea-level stacks spanning the last 500 ky. We also show how a box model-data comparison of water-column δ18O changes over a monsoon interval allows us to quantify the monsoon versus SL δ18O imprint on Mediterranean foraminiferal carbonate δ18O records. This paves the way for a more accurate and fully continuous SL reconstruction extending back through the Pliocene.

  4. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  5. Extending the Instrumental Record of Sea-Level Change: A 1300-Year Sea-Level Record From Eastern Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Cleary, P.

    2002-12-01

    The instrumental record of sea-level change in the northeastern United States extends back to the early 20th century and at New York City (NYC) extends back to 1856. These tide gauge records indicate that sea level has risen at a rate of 2.5 to 4 mm/year over the last 100-150 years. Geologic evidence of sea-level change in the region over the last 2,000 years indicates rates of sea-level rise of about 1 mm/year or less. The discordance between the instrumental and geologic records is frequently cited as potentially providing evidence that anthropogenic warming of the climate system has resulted in an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. In order to begin to test the hypothesis that acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise has occurred in the last 150 years due to anthropogenic climate warming, accurate and precise information on the timing of the apparent acceleration in sea-level rise are needed. Here we construct a high-resolution relative sea-level record for the past 1350 years by dating basal salt marsh peat samples above a glacial erratic in a western Connecticut salt marsh. Preservation of marsh vegetation remains in the sediment record that has a narrow vertical habitat range at the upper end of the tidal range provides information on past sea levels. { \\it Spartina patens} (marsh hay) and { \\it Juncus gerardi} (black rush) dominate both the modern marsh and their remains are the major constituent of the marsh sediments and occur in the modern marsh between mean high water (MHW) and mean highest high water. We use the elevation distribution of modern plant communities to estimate the relationship of sediment samples to paleo-mean high water. The chronology is based on 15 radiocarbon ages, supplemented by age estimates derived from the horizons of industrial Pb pollution and pollen indicative of European land clearance. Thirteen of the radiocarbon ages and the Pb and pollen data come from samples taken along a contact between marsh peat and a glacial

  6. Impact of falls and fear of falling on health-related quality of life in patients with Parkinson's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grimbergen, Y.A.M.; Schrag, A.; Mazibrada, G.; Borm, G.F.; Bloem, B.R.

    2013-01-01

    Postural instability, recurrent falls and fear of falling are common in advanced Parkinson's disease (PD). We examined the impact of fall frequency, fear of falling, balance confidence and objectively measured balance impairment (using Tinetti's Mobility Index) on health-related quality of life

  7. New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

    2018-04-01

    Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

  8. The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.

    2014-07-01

    A new model of the deglaciation history of Antarctica over the past 25 kyr has been developed, which we refer to herein as ICE-6G_C (VM5a). This revision of its predecessor ICE-5G (VM2) has been constrained to fit all available geological and geodetic observations, consisting of: (1) the present day uplift rates at 42 sites estimated from GPS measurements, (2) ice thickness change at 62 locations estimated from exposure-age dating, (3) Holocene relative sea level histories from 12 locations estimated on the basis of radiocarbon dating and (4) age of the onset of marine sedimentation at nine locations along the Antarctic shelf also estimated on the basis of 14C dating. Our new model fits the totality of these data well. An additional nine GPS-determined site velocities are also estimated for locations known to be influenced by modern ice loss from the Pine Island Bay and Northern Antarctic Peninsula regions. At the 42 locations not influenced by modern ice loss, the quality of the fit of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5A) is characterized by a weighted root mean square residual of 0.9 mm yr-1. The Southern Antarctic Peninsula is inferred to be rising at 2 mm yr-1, requiring there to be less Holocene ice loss there than in the prior model ICE-5G (VM2). The East Antarctica coast is rising at approximately 1 mm yr-1, requiring ice loss from this region to have been small since Last Glacial Maximum. The Ellsworth Mountains, at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, are inferred to be rising at 5-8 mm yr-1, indicating large ice loss from this area during deglaciation that is poorly sampled by geological data. Horizontal deformation of the Antarctic Plate is minor with two exceptions. First, O'Higgins, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is moving southeast at a significant 2 mm yr-1 relative to the Antarctic Plate. Secondly, the margins of the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves are moving horizontally away from the shelf centres at an approximate rate of 0.8 mm yr-1, in

  9. Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts, and Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Wahl

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise (SLR poses a great threat to approximately 10% of the world’s population residing in low-elevation coastal zones (i.e., land located up to 10 m of present-day mean sea-level (MSL[...

  10. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

  11. Sea Level Changes: Determination and Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; DeRonde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

    The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for océanographie and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wroblewski and by Pasaric and Orlic, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El- Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

  12. Experiments in Reconstructing Twentieth-Century Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Richard D.; Douglas, Bruce C.

    2011-01-01

    One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 +/- 0.26 mm/yr. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm/yr which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.

  13. Upper Cenomanian-lower Turonian sea-level rise and its consequences on the Adriatic-Dinaric carbonate platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gušić, I.; Jelaska, V.

    1993-12-01

    The Adriatic carbonate platform existed throughout most of the Mesozoic as an isolated (‘intraoceanic’) carbonate platform. It is characterized by what has been traditionally labelled a ‘continuous’ shallow marine carbonate sedimentation, without terrigenous influences. However, global sea-level changes left unequivocal imprints in the ‘continuous’ carbonate record, thus proving that the carbonate platform sensitively responded to sea-level fluctuations. This paper focuses on the relatively short Cenomanian — Turonian drowning event, which temporarily submerged the platform below the euphotic zone, and which is related here to the well known global Cenomanian — Turonian sea-level highstand. This drowning episode is characterized by the abrupt disappearance of numerous shallow water benthic invertebrate taxa and by an abundant occurrence of planktonic organisms, including calcispheres and ‘primitive’ planktonic foraminifera. Near the middle of the Turonian, the platform regime was re-established, correlating with the global fall in sea level. The situation is different only at the south-west margin of the platform, where pelagic sedimentation, initiated near the end of the Cenomanian, continues into the Santonian and probably marks the Adriatic trough. The drowning began earlier (in the Middle Cenomanian) in those areas nearer to the north-east margin of the platform (the area of what is today central Croatia) and then progressed gradually towards the more interior areas of the platform (the middle Dalmatian islands), which were drowned near the end of the Cenomanian.

  14. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  15. Fall related hospital admissions among seniors in Poland in 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczak-Stec, Elzbieta; Goryński, Paweł

    2013-01-01

    Falls among elderly people causing hospitalization are considered one of the most important public health problems. Our objective was to analyse fall related hospital admissions among seniors (> or = 65 years old) in Poland in 2010. The analyses were conducted with regard to gender, place of residence and age. Additionally, the health consequences of falls among elderly people were studied. Injuries and other consequences of external causes, were expressed in the form of three-character ICD-10 codes representing the underlying disease (S00-T98). Data on hospital admissions resulting from falls among seniors were obtained from the database held at the Department - Centre for Monitoring and Analyses of Population Health Status and Health Care System by the National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene. Analysis has shown that the hospitalization ratio due to falls is much higher for women than for men. On average, 1 024 per 100 000 women are hospitalized due to a fall, while the number for men is 649. For every analysed age group women are at a higher risk of hospitalization due to a fall than men. In 2010 nearly 70% of hospital admissions of elderly people due to a fall were caused by a fall on the same level as a result of tripping or slipping (31 712 hospitalizations). No differences in relation to gender were observed. Risk of hospitalization due to a fall increases with age. For people over 80 years of age it is 2.5 times higher than for people in the 65-69 age group (1 459 and 570 per 100 000 respectively). It was observed that the length of hospital stay increases with age. There were no significant differences between the number of hospitalizations depending on the place of residence. The analysis showed that differences in the length of stay for women and men are statistically significant. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the lengths of stay depending on a place of residence. Almost one-third of

  16. Clinical and Community Strategies to Prevent Falls and Fall-Related Injuries Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor-Piliae, Ruth E; Peterson, Rachel; Mohler, Martha Jane

    2017-09-01

    Falls in older adults are the result of several risk factors across biological and behavioral aspects of the person, along with environmental factors. Falls can trigger a downward spiral in activities of daily living, independence, and overall health outcomes. Clinicians who care for older adults should screen them annually for falls. A multifactorial comprehensive clinical fall assessment coupled with tailored interventions can result in a dramatic public health impact, while improving older adult quality of life. For community-dwelling older adults, effective fall prevention has the potential to reduce serious fall-related injuries, emergency room visits, hospitalizations, institutionalization, and functional decline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Present day sea level changes: observations and climatic causes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, A.

    2007-01-01

    After a few thousand years of relative stability, sea level has risen of about 20 cm since the beginning of the 20. century. It currently rises at an average rate of about 3 mm/yr in response to global warming. About half of this rate is directly attributed to thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, while the other half is mainly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets. Satellite observations show that sea level rise is highly non-uniform. (author)

  18. Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

  19. A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

    OpenAIRE

    Spratt Rachel M; Lisiecki Lorraine E

    2016-01-01

    Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal componen...

  20. Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

    2015-05-01

    weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Fear of Falling in Women with Fibromyalgia and Its Relation with Number of Falls and Balance Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collado-Mateo, D; Gallego-Diaz, J M; Adsuar, J C; Domínguez-Muñoz, F J; Olivares, P R; Gusi, N

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate fear of falling, number of falls, and balance performance in women with FM and to examine the relationship between these variables and others, such as balance performance, quality of life, age, pain, and impact of fibromyalgia. A total of 240 women participated in this cross-sectional study. Of these, 125 had fibromyalgia. Several variables were assessed: age, fear of falling from 0 to 100, number of falls, body composition, balance performance, lower limb strength, health-related quality of life, and impact of fibromyalgia. Women with fibromyalgia reported more falls and more fear of falling. Fear of falling was associated with number of falls in the last year, stiffness, perceived balance problems, impact of FM, and HRQoL whereas the number of falls was related to fear of falling, balance performance with eyes closed, pain, tenderness to touch level, anxiety, self-reported balance problems, impact of FM, and HRQoL. FM has an impact on fear of falling, balance performance, and number of falls. Perceived balance problems seem to be more closely associated with fear of falling than objective balance performance.

  2. Fear of Falling in Women with Fibromyalgia and Its Relation with Number of Falls and Balance Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Collado-Mateo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate fear of falling, number of falls, and balance performance in women with FM and to examine the relationship between these variables and others, such as balance performance, quality of life, age, pain, and impact of fibromyalgia. Methods. A total of 240 women participated in this cross-sectional study. Of these, 125 had fibromyalgia. Several variables were assessed: age, fear of falling from 0 to 100, number of falls, body composition, balance performance, lower limb strength, health-related quality of life, and impact of fibromyalgia. Results. Women with fibromyalgia reported more falls and more fear of falling. Fear of falling was associated with number of falls in the last year, stiffness, perceived balance problems, impact of FM, and HRQoL whereas the number of falls was related to fear of falling, balance performance with eyes closed, pain, tenderness to touch level, anxiety, self-reported balance problems, impact of FM, and HRQoL. Conclusion. FM has an impact on fear of falling, balance performance, and number of falls. Perceived balance problems seem to be more closely associated with fear of falling than objective balance performance.

  3. Comparison of the Validity of Four Fall-Related Psychological Measures in a Community-Based Falls Risk Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Delilah S.; Ellis, Rebecca; Kosma, Maria; Fabre, Jennifer M.; McCarter, Kevin S.; Wood, Robert H.

    2011-01-01

    We examined the measurement properties of fall-related psychological instruments with a sample of 133 older adults (M age = 74.4 years, SD = 9.4). Measures included the Comprehensive Falls Risk Screening Instrument, Falls-efficacy Scale-International (FES-I), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC), modified Survey of Activities and Fear of…

  4. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Vivien; Butler Forslund, Emelie; Opheim, Arve; Franzén, Erika; Wahman, Kerstin; Hultling, Claes; Seiger, Åke; Ståhle, Agneta; Stanghelle, Johan K; Roaldsen, Kirsti S

    2017-04-01

    What is the 1-year incidence of falls and injurious falls in a representative cohort of community-dwelling ambulatory individuals with chronic spinal cord injury? What are the predictors of recurrent falls (more than two/year) and injurious falls in this population? One-year longitudinal observational multi-centre study. A representative sample of 68 (of 73 included) community-dwelling ambulatory individuals with traumatic SCI attending regular follow-up programs at rehabilitation centres. Primary outcome measures were incidence and predictors of recurrent falls (more than two/year) and injurious falls reported every 2 weeks for 1year. A total of 48% of participants reported recurrent falls. Of the 272 reported falls, 41% were injurious. Serious injuries were experienced by 4% of participants, all of whom were women. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that recurrent falls in the previous year (OR=111, 95% CI=8.6 to 1425), fear of falling (OR=6.1, 95% CI=1.43 to 26) and longer time taken to walk 10m (OR=1.3, 95% CI=1.0 to 1.7) were predictors of recurrent falls. Fear of falling (OR=4.3, 95% CI=1.3 to 14) and recurrent falls in the previous year (OR=4.2, 95% CI=1.2 to 14) were predictors of injurious falls. Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017) Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108-113]. Copyright © 2017 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majewski, Jedrzej; Pham, Dat; Meltzner, Aron; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin; Heng, Shu Yun; Warrick, David

    2015-04-01

    Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls Jędrzej M. Majewski 1, Dat T. Pham1, Aron J. Meltzner 1, Adam D. Switzer 1, Benjamin P. Horton2, Shu Yun Heng1, David Warrick3, 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 2 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA 3 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Coral microatolls can be used to study relative sea-level change at multidecadal timescales associated with vertical land movements, climate induced sea-level rise and other oceanographic phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with the assumption that the highest level of survival (HLS) of coral microatolls track sea level over the course of their lifetimes. In this study we compare microatoll records covering from as early as 1883 through 2013, from two sites in Indonesia, with long records (>20 years) from proximal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and other sea-level reconstructions. We compared the HLS time series derived from open-ocean and moated (or ponded) microatolls on tectonically stable Belitung Island and a potentially tectonically active setting in Mapur Island, with sea-level reconstructions for 1950-2011. The sea-level reconstructions are based on ground and satellite measurements, combining a tide model with the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model. Our results confirm that open-ocean microatolls do track low water levels at multi decadal time scales and can be used as a proxy for relative sea level (RSL) over time. However, microatolls that are even partially moated are unsuitable and do not track RSL; rather, their growth patterns likely reflect changes in the elevation of the sill of the local pond, as reported by earlier authors. Our ongoing efforts will include an attempt to recognize similarities in moated

  6. Land Sea Level Difference Impacts on Socio-Hydrological System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.; Oh, W. S.; Sangwan, N.

    2016-12-01

    Allowing moderate shocks can be a new solution that helps to build adaptive capacity in society is a rising issue. In Social-Ecological field, Carpenter et al. (2015) suggested that exposure to short-term variability leads to long term resilience by enlarging safe operating space (SOS). The SOS refers to the boundary of favorable state that ecosystem can maintain resilience without imposing certain conditions (Carpenter et al. 2015). Our work is motivated by defining SOS in socio-hydrological system(SHS) because it can be an alternative way for flood management beyond optimized or robust flood control. In this context, large flood events that make system to cross the SOS should be fully managed, but frequent small floods need to be allowed if the system is located in SOS. Especially, land sea level change is critical factor to change flood resilience since it is one of the most substantial disturbance that changes the entire boundary of SOS. In order to have broader perspective of vulnerability and resilience of the coastal region, it is crucial to understand the land sea level dynamics changed with human activities and natural variances.The risk of land sea level change has been researched , but most of these researches have focused on explain cause and effect of land sea level change, paying little attention to its dynamics interacts with human activities. Thus, an objective of this research is to study dynamics of human work, land sea level change and resilience to flood with SOS approach. Especially, we focus on the case in Ganges-Brahmaputra, Bangladesh where has high vulnerability to flood, and is faced with relatively rapid land sea level change problem. To acheive the goal, this study will develop a stylized model by extending the human - flood interaction model combined with relative sea level difference equation. The model describes the dynamics of flood protection system which is changed by SHS and land sea level chage. we will focus on the aggradation

  7. Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike

    2014-05-01

    In many locations in the southern hemisphere, relative sea level (RSL) reached its maximum position during the middle Holocene. This highstand is used by models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to constrain the melt histories of the large ice sheets, particularly Antarctica. In this paper we present the first Holocene sea-level record from the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), an archipelago located on the Patagonian continental shelf about 500 km east of mainland South America at a latitude of ca. 52 degrees. Unlike coastal locations in southernmost South America, Holocene sea-level data from the Falklands are not influenced by tectonics, local ice loading effects and large tidal ranges such that GIA and ice-ocean mass flux are the dominant drivers of RSL change. Our study site is a salt marsh located in Swan Inlet in East Falkland, around 50 km southwest of Stanley. This is the largest and best developed salt marsh in the Falkland Islands. Cores were collected in 2005 and 2013. Lithostratigraphic analyses were complemented by analyses of foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms to infer palaeoenvironments. The bedrock, a Permian black shale, is overlain by grey-brown organic salt-marsh clay, up to 90 cm thick, which, in a landward direction, is replaced by freshwater organic sediments. Overlying these units are medium-coarse sands with occasional pebbles, up to 115 cm thick, containing tidal flat foraminifera. The sandy unit is erosively overlain by a grey-brown organic salt-marsh peat which extends up to the present surface. Further away from the sea this unit is predominantly of freshwater origin. Based on 13 radiocarbon dates we infer that prior to ~9.5 ka sea level was several metres below present. Under rising sea levels a salt marsh developed which was suddenly drowned around 8.4 ka, synchronous with a sea-level jump known from northern hemisphere locations. Following the drowning, RSL rose to its maximum position around 7 ka, less than 0.5 m above

  8. Sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2014-06-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. Resulting sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); while long-term sea level trend is related to global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 1.6 mm yr-1 and 2.7 ± 1.0 mm yr-1, respectively. Allowing for corresponding vertical land movements (VLM; 0.8 ± 2.6 mm yr-1 and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm yr-1), their absolute SLR rates are 3.2 ± 4.2 mm yr-1 and 3.6 ± 3.2 mm yr-1, respectively. For the common period 1993-2009, absolute SLR rates obtained from both tide gauge and satellite altimetry in Peninsular Malaysia are similar; and they are slightly higher than the global tendency. It further underlines that VLM should be taken into account to get better estimates of SLR observations. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian coast in the range of ±5 cm with a very high correlation. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies mainly in the Malacca Strait in the range of ±2 cm with a high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index

  9. Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Q. Bowen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

  10. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2017-08-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

  11. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  12. Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

  13. Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 91 Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century A. S. Unnikrishnan National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403004 unni@nio.org Introduction Sea-level... rise is one of the good indicators of global warming. Rise in sea level occurs mainly through melting of glaciers, thermal expansion due to ocean warming and some other processes of relatively smaller magnitudes. Sea level rise is a global...

  14. Factors related to falls among community dwelling elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhirunyaratn, Piyathida; Prasomrak, Prasert; Jindawong, Bangonsri

    2013-09-01

    Falls among the elderly can lead to disability, hospitalization and premature death. This study aimed to determine the factors related to falls among community dwelling elderly. This case-control study was conducted at the Samlium Primary Care Unit (SPCU), Khon Kaen, Thailand. Cases were elderly individuals who had fallen within the previous six months and controls were elderly who had not fallen during that same time period. Subjects were taken from elderly persons registered at the SPCU. The sample size was calculated to be 111 cases and 222 controls. Face to face interviews were conducted with subjects between May and June, 2011. The response rate was 100%. On bivariate analysis, the statistically significant factors related to falls were: regular medication use, co-morbidities, mobility, depression, cluttered rooms, slippery floors, unsupported toilets (without a hand rail), sufficient exercise, rapid posture change and wearing slippers. When controlling for others significant factors, multiple logistic regression revealed significant factors were: regular medication use (AOR: 2.22; 95%CI: 1.19 - 4.12), depression (AOR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.03 - 2.99), sufficient exercise (AOR: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.19 - 0.58) and wearing slippery shoes (AOR: 2.31; 95% CI: 1.24 - 4.29). Interventions need to be considered to modify these significant factors associated with falls and education should be provided to these at risk.

  15. Fall

    OpenAIRE

    Odundo, Magdalene

    2008-01-01

    The monoprint Fall, created in the artist-in-residence studio at Dartmouth College, Hanover, New England, represents a transient yet vivid memory of the season spent walking and re-walking a trail I took to the studio on a daily basis. The work arose spontaneously from a direct and instinctive wish to replicate the ghost imprints left on the trail by the wet and dry weather of that autumn. It also represented a sensationally hopeful political transition of what seemed to be the growth of hope...

  16. Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri Le Cozannet

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS. To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1 research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2 cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.

  17. Rising sea levels and small island states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leatherman, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    A review is given of the problems small island nations face with respect to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many small island nations are very vulnerable to sea level rise. Particularly at risk are coral reef atolls, which are generally quite small, lie within three metres of current sea levels, and have no land at higher elevations to relocate populations and economic activity. Volcanic islands in the Pacific have high ground, but it is largely rugged, high relief and soil-poor. The most vulnerable islands are those that consist entirely of atolls and reef islands, such as Kirabai, Maldives, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Small island states, which by themselves have little power or influence in world affairs, have banded together to form the Strategic Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This alliance had grown to include 42 states by the time of the 1992 U.N. Earth Summit. Although the greenhouse effect is mainly caused by industrial nations, developing countries will suffer the most from it. Choices of response strategy will depend on environmental, economic and social factors. Most small island nations do not have the resources to fight sea level rise in the way that the Dutch have. Retreat can occur as a gradual process or as catastrophic abandonment. Prohibiting construction close to the water's edge is a good approach. Sea level histories for each island state should be compiled and updated, island geomorphology and settlement patterns should be surveyed to determine risk areas, storm regimes should be determined, and information on coastal impacts of sea level rise should be disseminated to the public

  18. Sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Pavlov, Vladimir; Bourke, Robert H.

    2001-01-01

    The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012760 About 60 tide-gauge stations in the Kara, Laptev, East-Siberian and Chukchi Seas have recorded the sea level change from the 1950s through 1990s. Over this 40-year period, most of these stations show a significant sea level rise (SLR). In light of global change, this SLR could be a manifestation of warming in the Artic coupled with a decrease of sea ice extent, warming of Atlantic waters, changes in...

  19. Recent Arctic sea level variations from satellites

    OpenAIRE

    Ole Baltazar Andersen; Gaia ePiccioni

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher...

  20. Risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 85 years of age and older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundstrom, Anna C; Guse, Clare E; Layde, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Falls are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. No previous studies on risk factors for falls have focused on adults 85 years and older, the most rapidly growing segment of adults. We examined demographic, health, and behavioral risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 65 years and older, with a particular focus on adults 85 years and older. We analyzed self-reported information from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2008. Data was available for 120,923 people aged 65 or older and 12,684 people aged 85 or older. Of those aged 85 or older, 21.3% reported at least one fall in the past 3 months and 7.2% reported at least one fall related injury requiring medical care or limiting activity for a day or longer. Below average general health, male sex, perceived insufficient sleep, health problems requiring assistive devices, alcohol consumption, increasing body mass index and history of stroke were all independently associated with a greater risk of falls or fall related injuries. The greater risk of falling in those 85 years and older appeared to be due to the deterioration of overall health status with age; among those with excellent overall health status, there was no greater risk of falling in adults 85 years and older compared to those 65-84 years of age. Our results suggest that those with risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries may be appropriate targets for evidence-based fall prevention programs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    , experts are increasingly looking at its potential impacts on coasts to facilitate local adaptation planning. This is a more complex issue than one might think, because different stretches of coast can be affected in very different ways. First of all, the sea-level response to global warming will not be globally uniform, since factors like changes in ocean currents (Levermann et al 2005) and the changing gravitational pull of continental ice (Mitrovica et al 2001) affect the local rise. Secondly, superimposed on the climatic trend is natural variability in sea level, which regionally can be as large as the climatic signal on multi-decadal timescales. Over the past decades, sea level has dropped in sizable parts of the world ocean, although it has of course risen in global mean (IPCC 2007). Thirdly, local land uplift or subsidence affects the local sea-level change relative to the coast, both for natural reasons (post-glacial isostatic adjustment centred on regions that were covered by ice sheets during the last ice age) and artificial ones (e.g., extraction of water or oil as in the Gulf of Mexico). Finally, local vulnerability to sea-level rise depends on many factors. Two interesting new studies in this journal (Tebaldi et al 2012, Strauss et al 2012) make important steps towards understanding sea-level vulnerability along the coasts of the United States, with methods that could also be applied elsewhere. The first, by Strauss and colleagues, merges high-resolution topographic data and a newly available tidal model together with population and housing data in order to estimate what land area and population would be at risk given certain increments in sea level. The results are mapped and tabulated at county and city level. They reveal the 'hot spots' along the US coast where sea-level rise is of the highest concern because of large populations living near the high-tide line: New York City and Long Island; the New Jersey shore; the Norfolk, Virginia, area; near Charleston

  2. Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice-shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Bradley

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores, confirm that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS expanded to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and out onto the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and its close proximity to the neighbouring Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS and Innuitian Ice Sheet (IIS, it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice-sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilized a simplified marine ice parameterization which did not fully include the effect of ice shelves or neglected the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local bedrock signal from the surrounding ice sheets. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial–interglacial cycles (240 ka BP to the present day using the ice-sheet–ice-shelf model IMAU-ICE. We investigated the solid earth influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL forcing generated by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA model. The RSL forcing governed the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice-shelf melting via changes in the water depth below the ice shelves. In the ensemble of simulations, at the glacial maximums, the GrIS coalesced with the IIS to the north and expanded to the continental shelf break to the southwest but remained too restricted to the northeast. In terms of the global mean sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 and −2.59 m, respectively. This LGM contribution by the GrIS is considerably higher (∼  1.26 m than most previous studies whereas the contribution to the LIG highstand is lower (∼  0.7 m. The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was

  3. Bipolar seesaw control on last interglacial sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, G; Rohling, E J; Rodríguez-Sanz, L; Grant, K M; Heslop, D; Roberts, A P; Stanford, J D; Yu, J

    2015-06-11

    Our current understanding of ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere interactions at ice-age terminations relies largely on assessments of the most recent (last) glacial-interglacial transition, Termination I (T-I). But the extent to which T-I is representative of previous terminations remains unclear. Testing the consistency of termination processes requires comparison of time series of critical climate parameters with detailed absolute and relative age control. However, such age control has been lacking for even the penultimate glacial termination (T-II), which culminated in a sea-level highstand during the last interglacial period that was several metres above present. Here we show that Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11), a prominent North Atlantic cold episode, occurred between 135 ± 1 and 130 ± 2 thousand years ago and was linked with rapid sea-level rise during T-II. Our conclusions are based on new and existing data for T-II and the last interglacial that we collate onto a single, radiometrically constrained chronology. The HS11 cold episode punctuated T-II and coincided directly with a major deglacial meltwater pulse, which predominantly entered the North Atlantic Ocean and accounted for about 70 per cent of the glacial-interglacial sea-level rise. We conclude that, possibly in response to stronger insolation and CO2 forcing earlier in T-II, the relationship between climate and ice-volume changes differed fundamentally from that of T-I. In T-I, the major sea-level rise clearly post-dates Heinrich Stadial 1. We also find that HS11 coincided with sustained Antarctic warming, probably through a bipolar seesaw temperature response, and propose that this heat gain at high southern latitudes promoted Antarctic ice-sheet melting that fuelled the last interglacial sea-level peak.

  4. Tides, surges and mean sea-level

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pugh, D. T

    1987-01-01

    .... Interest in mean sea-level changes has recently been focused on the possibility of significant increases over the coming century as a result of global warming. Examples of applications from North America, Europe and other parts of the world are included.

  5. Sea level rise : A literature survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, G.H.P.

    1992-01-01

    In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes

  6. Estimating absolute sea level variations by combining GNSS and Tide gauge data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bos, M.S.; Fernandes, R.M.S; Vethamony, P.; Mehra, P.

    Indian tide gauges can be used to estimate sea level rise. To separate relative sea level rise from vertical land motion at the tide gauges, various GNSS stations have been installed in the last years at, or nearby, tide gauges. Using the PSMSL...

  7. Monthly Variations in Sea Level at the Island of Zanzibar | Mahongo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Western Indian Ocean Journal of Marine Science ... Air pressure and rainfall remained relatively constant during the 20-year study period, but there were trends in sea level, northeast winds, southeast winds and air temperature. Monthly ... The trend in sea level (9%) appeared to be mainly correlated with northeast winds.

  8. Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Fernanda Adame, Maria; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

    2015-01-01

    Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

  9. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, K. M.; Huang, T.; Quach, N. T.; Boening, C.

    2016-12-01

    NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides scientists and the general public with "one-stop" source for current sea level change information and data. Sea Level Rise research is a multidisciplinary research and in order to understand its causes, scientists must be able to access different measurements and to be able to compare them. The portal includes an interactive tool, called the Data Analysis Tool (DAT), for accessing, visualizing, and analyzing observations and models relevant to the study of Sea Level Rise. Using NEXUS, an open source, big data analytic technology developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the DAT is able provide user on-the-fly data analysis on all relevant parameters. DAT is composed of three major components: A dedicated instance of OnEarth (a WMTS service), NEXUS deep data analytic platform, and the JPL Common Mapping Client (CMC) for web browser based user interface (UI). Utilizing the global imagery, a user is capable of browsing the data in a visual manner and isolate areas of interest for further study. The interfaces "Analysis" tool provides tools for area or point selection, single and/or comparative dataset selection, and a range of options, algorithms, and plotting. This analysis component utilizes the Nexus cloud computing platform to provide on-demand processing of the data within the user-selected parameters and immediate display of the results. A RESTful web API is exposed for users comfortable with other interfaces and who may want to take advantage of the cloud computing capabilities. This talk discuss how DAT enables on-the-fly sea level research. The talk will introduce the DAT with an end-to-end tour of the tool with exploration and animating of available imagery, a demonstration of comparative analysis and plotting, and how to share and export data along with images for use in publications/presentations. The session will cover what kind of data is available, what kind of analysis is possible, and what are the outputs.

  10. Sea level monitoring in Africa | Woodworth | African Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Information Network for Africa (ODINAfrica) programme are described and a survey of currently existing and planned sea level stations in Africa is presented, together with information on where data for existing stations may be found. Keywords: sea level data applications, sea level data telemetry, sea level networks. African ...

  11. A 500 kyr record of global sea-level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea-level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  12. Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darwin, R.F.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2001-01-01

    Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations: (1) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (2) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (3) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages. 43 refs

  13. Holocene Sea-Level Database For The Caribbean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, N. S.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Scatena, F. N.; Vane, C. H.; Liu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records from far-field locations are important for understanding the driving mechanisms controlling the nature and timing of the mid-late Holocene reduction in global meltwaters and providing background rates of late Holocene RSL change with which to compare the magnitude of 20th century RSL rise. The Caribbean region has traditionally been considered far-field (i.e., with negligible glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) influence), although recent investigations indicate otherwise. Here, we consider the spatial variability in glacio-isostatic, tectonic and local contributions on RSL records from the circum-Caribbean region to infer a Holocene eustatic sea-level signal. We have constructed a database of quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive, Holocene RSL observations for the circum-Caribbean region. The database contains over 500 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space. The database incorporates sea-level observations from a latitudinal range of 5°N to 25°N and longitudinal range of 55°W to 90°W. We include sea-level observations from 11 ka BP to present, although the majority of the index points in the database are younger than 8 ka BP. The database is sub-divided into 13 regions based on the distance from the former Laurentide Ice Sheet and regional tectonic setting. The index points were primarily derived from mangrove peat deposits, which in the Caribbean form in the upper half of the tidal range, and corals (predominantly Acropora palmata), the growth of which is constrained to the upper 5 m of water depth. The index points are classified on the basis of their susceptibility to compaction (e.g., intercalated, basal). The influence of temporal changes in tidal range on index points is also considered. The sea-level reconstructions demonstrate that RSL did not exceed the present height (0 m) during the Holocene in the majority of locations, except at sites in Suriname/Guayana and possibly Trinidad

  14. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

  15. Fall-related self-efficacy, not balance and mobility performance, is related to accidental falls in chronic stroke survivors with low bone mineral density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, M Y C; Eng, J J

    2008-07-01

    Chronic stroke survivors with low hip bone density are particularly prone to fractures. This study shows that fear of falling is independently associated with falls in this population. Thus, fear of falling should not be overlooked in the prevention of fragility fractures in these patients. Chronic stroke survivors with low bone mineral density (BMD) are particularly prone to fragility fractures. The purpose of this study was to identify the determinants of balance, mobility and falls in this sub-group of stroke patients. Thirty-nine chronic stroke survivors with low hip BMD (T-score fall-related self-efficacy. Any falls in the past 12 months were also recorded. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify the determinants of balance and mobility performance, whereas logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of falls. Multiple regression analysis revealed that after adjusting for basic demographics, fall-related self-efficacy remained independently associated with balance/mobility performance (R2 = 0.494, P fall-related self-efficacy, but not balance and mobility performance, was a significant determinant of falls (odds ratio: 0.18, P = 0.04). Fall-related self-efficacy, but not mobility and balance performance, was the most important determinant of accidental falls. This psychological factor should not be overlooked in the prevention of fragility fractures among chronic stroke survivors with low hip BMD.

  16. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

  17. The future for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Sea Level Data Rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andrew; Rickards, Lesley; Aarup, Thorkild

    2016-04-01

    Historical sea level data are rare and unrepeatable measurements with a number of applications in climate studies (sea level rise), oceanography (ocean currents, tides, surges), geodesy (national datum), geophysics and geology (coastal land movements) and other disciplines. However, long-term time series are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and there are no records at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) global data bank longer than 100 years in the Arctic, Africa, South America or Antarctica. Data archaeology activities will help fill in the gaps in the global dataset and improve global sea level reconstruction. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the auspices of the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology. It was set up in 1985 to collect long-term tide gauge observations and to develop systems and standards "for ocean monitoring and flood warning purposes". At the GLOSS-GE-XIV Meeting in 2015, GLOSS agreed on a number of action items to be developed in the next two years. These were: 1. To explore mareogram digitisation applications, including NUNIEAU (more information available at: http://www.mediterranee.cerema.fr/logiciel-de-numerisation-des-enregistrements-r57.html) and other recent developments in scanning/digitisation software, such as IEDRO's Weather Wizards program, to see if they could be used via a browser. 2. To publicise sea level data archaeology and rescue by: • maintaining and regularly updating the Sea Level Data Archaeology page on the GLOSS website • strengthening links to the GLOSS data centres and data rescue organisations e.g. linking to IEDRO, ACRE, RDA • restarting the sea level data rescue blog with monthly posts. 3. Investigate sources of funding for data archaeology and rescue projects. 4. Propose "Guidelines" for rescuing sea level data. These action items will aid the discovery, scanning, digitising and quality control

  18. Late Frasnian sedimentation cycles in the Appalachian basin—possible evidence for high frequency eustatic sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filer, Jonathan K.

    2002-12-01

    During the late Frasnian, 11 fourth-order progradational/retrogradational marine sedimentation cycles were deposited in the Appalachian foreland basin. Mapping based primarily on subsurface data demonstrates the continuity of these cycles over a distance of 700 km. Cyclicity in distal facies occurs as alternations of organic-rich and organic-poor shales, two of the organic shales can be correlated with the transgressive "Kellwasser Beds" of Europe. In more proximal facies, recurring lobes of siltstone and sandstone were deposited. Based on lithologic indices, the temporal pattern shows significant variation in the strength of relative facies change during deposition. In particular, two times of particularly pronounced progradation correspond to previously recognized eustatic sea-level falls. The correlation of portions of Appalachian basin depositional cyclicity with global sea-level events suggests that the entire sequence of 11 cycles, with estimated average duration of around 100-150 ka, were the result of high-frequency eustatic sea-level changes. This in turn would be consistent with a brief period of late Frasnian glaciation, as others have previously suggested.

  19. Course of sea-level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlowicz, Michael

    This summer, the Environment and Climate Program of the European Union will offer an advanced study course on “sea-level changes on micro to macro timescales: measurements, modeling, interpretation, and application.” The short course will be taught from July 1-12 at the Aesclepon Conference Center on the island of Kos, Greece.The interdisciplinary course is designed to bring together at least 40 students from different disciplines in an attempt to share and disseminate fundamental ideas about sea level change, focusing particularly on changes influenced by anthropogenic factors. Participants will be selected by a scientific panel; the European Union will conduct the course free of charge and will provide free lodging. Students must pay for their own travel expenses and food.

  20. On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

    2010-12-01

    Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

  1. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  2. Cellular-based sea level gauge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.

    treaties with greater transparency. Among the various communication technologies used for real-time transmission of sea-level data are the wired telephone connection, VHF/UHF transceivers, satellite transmit terminals and cellular connectivity. Wired... telephone connections are severely susceptible to loss of connectivity during natural disasters such as storm surges, primarily because of telephone line breakage. Communication via VHF/UHF transceivers is limited by line-of-sight distance between...

  3. Factors related to the high fall rate in long-term care residents with dementia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kosse, Nienke M.; de Groot, Maartje H.; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Hortobagyi, Tibor; Lamoth, Claudine J. C.

    Background: Falls in long-term care residents with dementia represent a costly but unresolved safety issue. The aim of the present study was to (1) determine the incidence of falls, fall-related injuries and fall circumstances, and (2) identify the relationship between patient characteristics and

  4. Work-related falls among union carpenters in Washington State before and after the Vertical Fall Arrest Standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipscomb, Hester J; Li, Leiming; Dement, John

    2003-08-01

    Washington State enacted a change in their fall standard for the construction industry in 1991, preceding the Safety Standard for Fall Protection in the Construction Industry promulgated by Federal OSHA in 1994. We evaluated changes in the rate of falls from elevations and measures of severity among a large cohort of union carpenters after the fall standard change in Washington State, taking into account the temporal trends in their overall injury rates. There was a significant decrease in the rate of falls from height after the standard went into effect, even after adjusting for the overall decrease in work-related injuries among this cohort. Much of the decrease was immediate, likely representing the publicity surrounding fatal falls and subsequent promulgation of the standard. The greatest decrease was seen between 3 and 3(1/2) years after the standard went into effect. There was a significant reduction in mean paid lost days per event after the standard change and there was a significant reduction in mean cost per fall when adjusting for age and the temporal trend for costs among non-fall injuries. Through the use of observational methods we have demonstrated significant effects of the Washington State Vertical Fall Arrest Standard among carpenters in the absence of a control or comparison group. Without controlling for the temporal trend in overall injury rates, the rate of decline in falls appeared significantly greater, but the more pronounced, but delayed, decline was not seen. The analyses demonstrate potential error in failing to account for temporal patterns or assuming that a decline after an intervention is related to the intervention. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  5. Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy Taylor

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available A system for providing routine seven-day forecasts of sea level observable at tide gauge locations is described and evaluated. Forecast time series are aggregated from well-established operational systems of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; although following some adjustments these systems are only quasi-complimentary. Target applications are routine coastal decision processes under non-extreme conditions. The configuration aims to be relatively robust to operational realities such as version upgrades, data gaps and metadata ambiguities. Forecast skill is evaluated against hourly tide gauge observations. Characteristics of the bias correction term are demonstrated to be primarily static in time, with time varying signals showing regional coherence. This simple approach to exploiting existing complex systems can offer valuable levels of skill at a range of Australian locations. The prospect of interpolation between observation sites and exploitation of lagged-ensemble uncertainty estimates could be meaningfully pursued. Skill characteristics define a benchmark against which new operational sea level forecasting systems can be measured. More generally, an aggregation approach may prove to be optimal for routine sea level forecast services given the physically inhomogeneous processes involved and ability to incorporate ongoing improvements and extensions of source systems.

  6. Sea-level proxies in Holocene raised beach ridge deposits (Greenland) revealed by ground-penetrating radar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Lars; Bendixen, Mette; Kroon, Aart; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Clemmensen, Lars B; Weβling, Ronny; Elberling, Bo

    2017-04-19

    Identification of sea-level proxies is important for reconstruction of past sea-level variation. Methods for reconstructing Holocene relative sea-level curves are crucial for quantification of the impact of Greenland ice thickness variation on global sea level and vertical land movement. Arctic beach ridges constitute important potential archives of sea-level variation. However, their surface morphology may have undergone modification since deposition due to freezing/thawing processes and erosion, and their morphology may therefore not be trustworthy for sea-level reconstruction. Therefore, geophysical imaging is used to examine the internal structures of the beach ridges and to define a sea-level proxy unaffected by surface processes. The GPR reflections from study sites in West and South Greenland show deposition of beachface deposits and upper shoreface deposits; the contact between steeply dipping beachface reflections and less-dipping shoreface reflections is used as sea-level proxy. Numerous points are identified along GPR transects facilitating reconstruction of relative sea-level variation of hitherto unprecedented resolution. Erosional events and deformation caused by freezing/thawing processes are clearly delineated. The approach constitutes a solid base for reconstruction of relative sea-level curves affected by a well-defined vertical land movement history since the studied beach ridge systems represent long time intervals and only relatively small spatial extents.

  7. What Are Ways to Prevent Falls and Related Fractures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... risk of falling. Some tips to help prevent falls outdoors are: Use a cane or walker Wear rubber-soled shoes so you don’t slip Walk on grass when sidewalks are slick Put salt or kitty litter on icy sidewalks. Some ways to help prevent falls indoors are: Keep rooms free of clutter, especially ...

  8. Sea Level Trend and Variability in the Straits of Singapore and Malacca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q.; Tkalich, P.

    2013-12-01

    The Straits of Singapore and Malacca (SSM) connect the Andaman Sea located northeast of the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, the largest marginal sea situated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Consequently, sea level in the SSM is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale sea level variability is dominant by the Asian monsoon. Interannual sea level signals are modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the long term, regional sea level is driven by the global climate change. However, relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on regional sea level in the SSM are yet to be quantified. In present study, publicly available tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data are used to derive long-term sea level trend and variability in SSM. We used the data from research-quality stations, including four located in the Singapore Strait (Tanjong Pagar, Raffles Lighthouse, Sultan Shoal and Sembawang) and seven situated in the Malacca Strait (Kelang, Keling, Kukup, Langkawji, Lumut, Penang and Ko Taphao Noi), each one having 25-39 year data up to the year 2011. Harmonic analysis is performed to filter out astronomic tides from the tide gauge records when necessary; and missing data are reconstructed using identified relationships between sea level and the governing phenomena. The obtained sea level anomalies (SLAs) and reconstructed mean sea level are then validated against satellite altimetry data from AVISO. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea level in the SSM is varying with global mean sea level, rising for the period 1984-2009 at the rate 1.8-2.3 mm/year in the Singapore Strait and 1.1-2.8 mm/year in the Malacca Strait. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ×5 cm with correlation coefficient

  9. Women and stroke patients are more at risk for fall- related injury among older persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulistyowati Tuminah Darjoko

    2016-05-01

    Women and stroke sufferers were at higher risk of fall-related injury among older persons. Prevention of fall-related injury should be done by older persons through periodic control of their health condition.

  10. Circumstances of falls and falls-related injuries in a cohort of older patients following hospital discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hill AM

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Anne-Marie Hill,1 Tammy Hoffmann,2,3 Terry P Haines4,51School of Physiotherapy, Institute for Health Research, The University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, WA, 2Centre for Research in Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD, 3School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, The University of Queensland, 4School of Primary Health Care, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 5Allied Health Research Unit, Kingston Centre, Southern Health, Clayton, VIC, AustraliaBackground: Older people are at increased risk of falls after hospital discharge. This study aimed to describe the circumstances of falls in the six months after hospital discharge and to identify factors associated with the time and location of these falls.Methods: Participants in this randomized controlled study comprised fallers (n = 138 who were part of a prospective observational cohort (n = 343 nested within a randomized controlled trial (n = 1206. The study tested patient education on falls prevention in hospital compared with usual care in older patients who were discharged from hospital and followed for six months after hospital discharge. The outcome measures were number of falls, falls-related injuries, and the circumstances of the falls, measured by use of a diary and a monthly telephone call to each participant.Results: Participants (mean age 80.3 ± 8.7 years reported 276 falls, of which 150 (54.3% were injurious. Of the 255 falls for which there were data available about circumstances, 190 (74.5% occurred indoors and 65 (25.5% occurred in the external home environment or wider community. The most frequent time reported for falls was the morning (between 6 am and 10 am when 79 (28.6% falls, including 49 (32.7% injurious falls, occurred. The most frequently reported location for falls (n = 80, 29.0%, including injurious falls (n = 42, 28.0%, was the bedroom. Factors associated with falling in the bedroom included

  11. Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Breili

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Norway’s national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.

  12. Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Greenan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA.

  13. Trends in fall-related hospital admissions in older persons in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartholt, Klaas A.; van der Velde, Nathalie; Looman, Caspar W. N.; van Lieshout, Esther M. M.; Panneman, Martien J. M.; van Beeck, Ed F.; Patka, Peter; van der Cammen, Tischa J. M.

    2010-01-01

    Fall-related injuries, hospitalizations, and mortality among older persons represent a major public health problem. Owing to aging societies worldwide, a major impact on fall-related health care demand can be expected. We determined time trends in numbers and incidence of fall-related hospital

  14. Sea-Level Change in the Russian Arctic Since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, B.; Baranskaya, A.; Khan, N.; Romanenko, F. A.

    2017-12-01

    Relative sea-level (RSL) databases that span the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present have been used to infer changes in climate, regional ice sheet variations, the rate and geographic source of meltwater influx, and the rheological structure of the solid Earth. Here, we have produced a quality-controlled RSL database for the Russian Arctic since the LGM. The database contains 394 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space, and 244 limiting points, which constrain the minimum or maximum limit of former sea level. In the western part of the Russian Arctic (Barents and White seas,) RSL was driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to deglaciation of the Scandinavian ice sheet, which covered the Baltic crystalline shield at the LGM. RSL data from isolation basins show rapid RSL from 80-100 m at 11-12 ka BP to 15-25 m at 4-5 ka BP. In the Arctic Islands of Franz-Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, RSL data from dated driftwood in raised beaches show a gradual fall from 25-35 m at 9-10 ka BP to 5-10 m at 3 ka BP. In the Russian plain, situated at the margins of the formerly glaciated Baltic crystalline shield, RSL data from raised beaches and isolation basins show an early Holocene rise from less than -20 m at 9-11 ka BP before falling in the late Holocene, illustrating the complex interplay between ice-equivalent meltwater input and GIA. The Western Siberian Arctic (Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, Beliy Island and islands of the Kara Sea) was not glaciated at the LGM. Sea-level data from marine and salt-marsh deposits show RSL rise at the beginning of the Holocene to a mid-Holocene highstand of 1-5 m at 5-1 ka BP. A similar, but more complex RSL pattern is shown for Eastern Siberia. RSL data from the Laptev Sea shelf show RSL at -40- -45 m and 11-14 ka BP. RSL data from the Lena Delta and Tiksi region have a highstand from 5 to 1 ka BP. The research is supported by RSF project 17-77-10130

  15. Principles and reconstruction of the ancient sea levels during the Quaternary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, L.; Flexor, J.M.; Suguio, K.

    1986-01-01

    This work focused the multiple aspects related to the ''reconstruction of the ancient sea level during the Quaternary''. The relative sea level, fluctuations are produced by true variations of the level (eustasy) and by changes in the land level (tectonism and isostasy). The changes of the relative levels are reconstructed through several evidence of these fluctuations, which are recognised in time and space. To define their situation in space is necessary to know their present altitude in relation to their original altitude, that is, to determine their position in relation to the sea level during their formation or sedimentation. Their situation in time is determined by measuring the moment of their formation or sedimentation, using for this the dating methods (isotopic, archeological, etc.) When numerous ancient levels could be reconstructed, spread through a considerable time interval, is possible to delineate the sea level fluctuation curve for this period. (C.D.G.) [pt

  16. Monthly Variations in Sea Level at the Island of Zanzibar

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trend in sea level. (9%) appeared ... There is a strong likelihood that physical processes other .... a bell-shaped curve. To avoid erroneous conclusions, residual analysis tests were carried ..... prediction of sea level, regardless of the units ...

  17. Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

    Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

  18. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  19. Low-Impact Flooring: Does It Reduce Fall-Related Injuries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanger, H Carl

    2017-07-01

    To compare fall rates and injuries from falls on low-impact flooring (LIF) compared with a standard vinyl flooring. Prospective, observational, nonrandomized controlled study. Subacute Older Persons Health ward (N = 20 beds). Older inpatients. Three different types of LIF. All falls in the ward were prospectively monitored using incident reporting, noting location and consequences of each fall. Fall rates (per 1000 bed days) and injuries, were compared between bedroom falls on LIF against those occurring on standard vinyl flooring (controls). Over 31 months, there were 278 bedroom falls (from 178 fallers). The bedroom fall rate (falls per 1000 bed days occupied) did not differ between the LIF and control groups (median 15 [IQR 8-18] versus 17 [IQR 9-23], respectively; P = .47). However, fall-related injuries were significantly less frequent when they occurred on LIFs (22% of falls versus 34% of falls on control flooring; P = .02). Fractures occurred in 0.7% of falls in the LIF cohort versus 2.3% in the control cohort. Rolling resistance when moving heavier equipment, such as beds or hoists, was an issue for staff on LIF. LIF significantly reduced fall-related injuries compared with a standard vinyl flooring, whereas they did not alter the overall risk of falling. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. DUACS: Toward High Resolution Sea Level Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faugere, Y.; Gerald, D.; Ubelmann, C.; Claire, D.; Pujol, M. I.; Antoine, D.; Desjonqueres, J. D.; Picot, N.

    2016-12-01

    The DUACS system produces, as part of the CNES/SALP project, and the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service, high quality multimission altimetry Sea Level products for oceanographic applications, climate forecasting centers, geophysic and biology communities... These products consist in directly usable and easy to manipulate Level 3 (along-track cross-calibrated SLA) and Level 4 products (multiple sensors merged as maps or time series) and are available in global and regional version (Mediterranean Sea, Arctic, European Shelves …).The quality of the products is today limited by the altimeter technology "Low Resolution Mode" (LRM), and the lack of available observations. The launch of 2 new satellites in 2016, Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A, opens new perspectives. Using the global Synthetic Aperture Radar mode (SARM) coverage of S3A and optimizing the LRM altimeter processing (retracking, editing, ...) will allow us to fully exploit the fine-scale content of the altimetric missions. Thanks to this increase of real time altimetry observations we will also be able to improve Level-4 products by combining these new Level-3 products and new mapping methodology, such as dynamic interpolation. Finally these improvements will benefit to downstream products : geostrophic currents, Lagrangian products, eddy atlas… Overcoming all these challenges will provide major upgrades of Sea Level products to better fulfill user needs.

  1. Deep Ocean Contribution to Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, L.; Sun, W.; Tang, H.; Wang, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The ocean temperature and salinity change in the upper 2000m can be detected by Argo floats, so we can know the steric height change of the ocean. But the ocean layers above 2000m represent only 50% of the total ocean volume. Although the temperature and salinity change are small compared to the upper ocean, the deep ocean contribution to sea level might be significant because of its large volume. There has been some research on the deep ocean rely on the very sparse situ observation and are limited to decadal and longer-term rates of change. The available observational data in the deep ocean are too spares to determine the temporal variability, and the long-term changes may have a bias. We will use the Argo date and combine the situ data and topographic data to estimate the temperature and salinity of the sea water below 2000m, so we can obtain a monthly data. We will analyze the seasonal and annual change of the steric height change due to the deep ocean between 2005 and 2016. And we will evaluate the result combination the present-day satellite and in situ observing systems. The deep ocean contribution can be inferred indirectly as the difference between the altimetry minus GRACE and Argo-based steric sea level.

  2. Remarks on the sea level records of the north Indian ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    variability in the tide gauge records along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean A. S. Unnikrishnan National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, India 403004 e-mail: unni@nio.org Introduction Global sea-level rise has been relatively well... studied by making use of the coastal tide gauge data that are available (Woodworth and Player, 2003) through the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). However, studies on regional sea level rise have not gathered momentum, similar to those on a...

  3. Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis; Hausse actuelle du niveau de la mer: synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W. [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Observatoire Midi-Pyrenees, 31 - Toulouse (France); Lombard, A. [CNES, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-11-15

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)

  4. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-02-20

    Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

  5. Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

  6. Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2009-01-01

    The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...... that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1...

  7. Effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, S.K.; Pritchett, W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)

    2008-07-01

    Natural gas hydrates occur in oceanic sediments and in permafrost regions around the world. As a greenhouse gas, large amounts of methane released from the global hydrate reservoir would have a significant impact on Earth's climate. The role of methane released by hydrate dissociation in climate change is uncertain. However, changes in global climate such as glaciation and warming can destabilize the hydrates. During the last glacial maximum, the sea level dropped about 100 meters. It has been suggested that the sea-level fall was associated with gas hydrate instability and seafloor slumping. This paper investigated the effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea level on gas hydrate stability and on gas venting at the seafloor. A one-dimensional numerical computer model (simulator) was developed to describe methane hydrate formation, decomposition, reformation, and distribution with depth below the seafloor in the marine environment. The simulator was utilized to model hydrate distributions at two sites, notably Blake Ridge, located offshore South Carolina and Hydrate Ridge, located off the coast of Oregon. The numerical models for the two sites were conditioned by matching the sulfate, chlorinity, and hydrate distribution measurements. The effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability were then investigated. It was concluded that for Blake Ridge, changes in hydrate concentration were small. Both the changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level led to a substantial increase in gas venting at the seafloor for Hydrate Ridge. 17 refs., 8 figs.

  8. Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2014-10-01

    Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  9. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. A. Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  10. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  11. Home ownership and fall-related outcomes among older adults in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, Young Kyung; Kim, Cheong-Seok

    2013-10-01

    Many of the previously identified environmental risk factors for fall-related outcomes (e.g. flooring, stairs and steps, kitchen, and bathrooms) are amenable to change, but the extent of the changes on these home-related risk factors are conditional on home ownership of the elderly. This study aims to test whether lack of home ownership is associated with a higher risk of falls, and a higher likelihood of reporting fear of falling and activity limitations due to fear of falling among older adults in South Korea. Using data from the first two waves (2006 and 2008) of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging, the associations between home ownership variables and three fall-related outcomes were examined in two regression models. A logistic regression model of any falls in the past 2 years was estimated to examine whether older adults living in short-term rental homes based on monthly rent have an increased risk of falls. A probit model accounting for sample selection was estimated to examine whether the two related outcomes, fear of falling and limiting activities due to fear of falling, are associated with home ownership status. Compared with owned home, short-term rental home predicted a higher likelihood of incident of falls and activity limitation due to fear of falling. The study findings suggest that the lack of home ownership with unstable housing tenure is an important risk factor for fall-related outcomes among older adults in South Korea. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  12. Atmospheric forcing on the seasonal variability of sea level at Cochin, southwest coast of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, K.; Dinesh Kumar, P. K.

    2006-07-01

    The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well as equatorward volume transport by coastal currents along the Indian peninsula could play an important role in the sea level low during the premonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons. During postmonsoon season, along-shore wind stress plays no major role in the high sea level whereas this could be due to the poleward volume transport by the coastal along-shore currents. Atmospheric pressure and river discharge do not seem to influence much the sea level during the southwest monsoon period, even though the river discharge during that period is considerable. The sea level was minimal during the southwest monsoon season, when the river discharge was at its annual maximum. The difference between the seasonal march of observed and pressure corrected sea level (CSL) was not significant for the study region. Harmonic analysis of the climatological data on the various parameters revealed that air temperature is the only parameter with a dominance of the semi-annual over the annual cycle. Cross-shore wind stress indicated strong interannual variability whereas relative density showed strong seasonal variability. The climatological seasonal cycles of CSL at eight other tide gauge stations along the west coast of the Indian subcontinent are also examined, to assess the role of various forcings on the seasonal sea level cycle. The signatures of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could be seen in some of the parameters (SST, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, along-shore wind stress, relative density and sea level). The signature of ENSO was particularly strong in the case of atmospheric pressure followed by relative density, the variance accounted by the relationship being 47% and 16%, respectively.

  13. National evaluation of Chinese coastal erosion to sea level rise using a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhan, Q; Fan, X; Du, X; Zhu, J

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a Causal Bayesian network is developed to predict decadal-scale shoreline evolution of China to sea-level rise. The Bayesian model defines relationships between 6 factors of Chinese coastal system such as coastal geomorphology, mean tide range, mean wave height, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate and shoreline erosion rate. Using the Bayesian probabilistic model, we make quantitative assessment of china's shoreline evolution in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results indicate that the probability of coastal erosion with high and very high rates increases from 28% to 32.3% when relative sea-level rise rates is 4∼6mm/a, and to 44.9% when relative sea-level rise rates is more than 6mm/a. A hindcast evaluation of the Bayesian model shows that the model correctly predicts 79.3% of the cases. Model test indicates that the Bayesian model shows higher predictive capabilities for stable coasts and very highly eroding coasts than moderately and highly eroding coasts. This study demonstrates that the Bayesian model is adapted to predicting decadal-scale Chinese coastal erosion associated with sea-level rise

  14. Should We Leave? Attitudes towards Relocation in Response to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The participation of individuals contributes significantly to the success of sea level rise adaptation. This study therefore addresses what influences people’s likelihood of relocating away from low-lying areas in response to rising sea levels. The analysis was based on a survey conducted in the City of Panama Beach in Florida (USA. Survey items relate to people’s risk perception, hazard experience, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal, whose theoretical background is Protection Motivation Theory. Descriptive and correlation analysis was first performed to highlight critical factors which were then examined by a multinomial Logit model. Results show that sea level rise awareness is the major explanatory variable. Coping appraisal is qualitatively viewed as a strong predictor for action, while threat appraisal is statistically significant in driving relocation intention. These factors should be integrated in current risk communication regarding sea level rise.

  15. Coastal wetlands, sea level, and the dimensions of geomorphic resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Jonathan D.

    2018-03-01

    Geomorphic system resilience is often perceived as an intrinsic property of system structure and interactions but is also related to idiosyncratic place and history factors. The importance of geographical and historical circumstances makes it difficult to generate categorical statements about geomorphic resilience. However, network-based analyses of system structure can be used to determine the dynamical stability (= resilience) based on generally applicable relationships and to determine scenarios of stability or instability. These provide guidelines for assessing place and history factors to assess resilience. A model of coastal wetlands is analyzed, based on interactions among relative sea level, wetland surface elevation, hydroperiod, vegetation, and sedimentation. The system is generally (but not always) dynamically unstable and non-resilient. Because of gradients of environmental factors and patchy distributions of microtopography and vegetation, a coastal wetland landscape may have extensive local variations in stability/resilience and in the key relationships that trigger instabilities. This is illustrated by a case study where dynamically unstable fragmentation is found in two nearby coastal wetlands in North Carolina's Neuse River estuary-Otter Creek Mouth and Anderson Creek. Neither is keeping pace with relative sea level rise, and both show unstable state transitions within the wetland system; but locally stable relationships exist within the wetland systems.

  16. Risk of fall-related injury in people with lower limb amputations: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christopher Kevin; Chihuri, Stanford T; Li, Guohua

    2016-01-01

    To assess fall-related injury risk and risk factors in people with lower limb amputation. Prospective longitudinal cohort with follow-up every 6 months for up to 41 months. Community-dwelling adults with lower limb amputations of any etiology and level recruited from support groups and prosthetic clinics. Demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained by self-reported questionnaire and telephone or in-person follow-up. Fall-related injury incidence requiring medical care per person-month and adjusted hazard ratio of fall-related injury were calculated using multivariable proportional hazards regression modeling. A total of 41 subjects, with 782 follow-up person-months in total, had 11 fall-related injury incidents (14.1/1,000 person-months). During follow-up, 56.1% of subjects reported falling and 26.8% reported fall-related injury. Multivariable proportional hazard modeling showed that women were nearly 6 times more likely as men to experience fall-related injury and people of non-white race were 13 times more likely than people of white race to experience fall-related injury. The final predictive model also included vascular amputation and age. Risk of fall-related injury requiring medical care in people with lower limb amputation appears to be higher than in older adult inpatients. Intervention programs to prevent fall-related injury in people with lower limb amputation should target women and racial minorities.

  17. Contrasting records of sea-level change in the eastern and western North Atlantic during the last 300 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, A. J.; Barlow, N. L. M.; Gehrels, W. R.; Saher, M. H.; Woodworth, P. L.; Scaife, R. G.; Brain, M. J.; Cahill, N.

    2014-02-01

    We present a new 300-year sea-level reconstruction from a salt marsh on the Isle of Wight (central English Channel, UK) that we compare to other salt-marsh and long tide-gauge records to examine spatial and temporal variability in sea-level change in the North Atlantic. Our new reconstruction identifies an overall rise in relative sea level (RSL) of c. 0.30 m since the start of the eighteenth century at a rate of 0.9±0.3 mm yr. Error-in-variables changepoint analysis indicates that there is no statistically significant deviation from a constant rate within the dataset. The reconstruction is broadly comparable to other tide-gauge and salt-marsh records from the European Atlantic, demonstrating coherence in sea level in this region over the last 150-300 years. In contrast, we identify significant differences in the rate and timing of RSL with records from the east coast of North America. The absence of a strong late 19th/early 20th century RSL acceleration contrasts with that recorded in salt marsh sediments along the eastern USA coastline, in particular in a well-dated and precise sea-level reconstruction from North Carolina. This suggests that this part of the North Carolina sea level record represents a regionally specific sea level acceleration. This is significant because the North Carolina record has been used as if it were globally representative within semi-empirical parameterisations of past and future sea-level change. We conclude that regional-scale differences of sea-level change highlight the value of using several, regionally representative RSL records when calibrating and testing semi-empirical models of sea level against palaeo-records. This is because by using records that potentially over-estimate sea-level rise in the past such models risk over-estimating sea-level rise in the future.

  18. Tidal marsh plant responses to elevated CO2 , nitrogen fertilization, and sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam Langley, J; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Shepard, Katherine A; Hagerty, Shannon B; Patrick Megonigal, J

    2013-05-01

    Elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) addition directly affect plant productivity and the mechanisms that allow tidal marshes to maintain a constant elevation relative to sea level, but it remains unknown how these global change drivers modify marsh plant response to sea level rise. Here we manipulated factorial combinations of CO2 concentration (two levels), N availability (two levels) and relative sea level (six levels) using in situ mesocosms containing a tidal marsh community composed of a sedge, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a grass, Spartina patens. Our objective is to determine, if elevated CO2 and N alter the growth and persistence of these plants in coastal ecosystems facing rising sea levels. After two growing seasons, we found that N addition enhanced plant growth particularly at sea levels where plants were most stressed by flooding (114% stimulation in the + 10 cm treatment), and N effects were generally larger in combination with elevated CO2 (288% stimulation). N fertilization shifted the optimal productivity of S. patens to a higher sea level, but did not confer S. patens an enhanced ability to tolerate sea level rise. S. americanus responded strongly to N only in the higher sea level treatments that excluded S. patens. Interestingly, addition of N, which has been suggested to accelerate marsh loss, may afford some marsh plants, such as the widespread sedge, S. americanus, the enhanced ability to tolerate inundation. However, if chronic N pollution reduces the availability of propagules of S. americanus or other flood-tolerant species on the landscape scale, this shift in species dominance could render tidal marshes more susceptible to marsh collapse. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Impact of fall-related behaviors as risk factors for falls among the elderly patients with dementia in a geriatric facility in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Mizue; Kurata, Sadami; Yamamoto, Emiko; Makino, Kumiko; Kanamori, Masao

    2012-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to clarify potential fall-related behaviors as fall risk factors that may predict the potential for falls among the elderly patients with dementia at a geriatric facility in Japan. This study was conducted from April 2008 to May 2009. A baseline study was conducted in April 2008 to evaluate Mini-Mental State Examination, Physical Self-Maintenance Scale, fall-related behaviors, and other factors. For statistical analysis, paired t test and logistic analysis were used to compare each item between fallers and nonfallers. A total of 135 participants were followed up for 1 year; 50 participants (37.04%) fell during that period. Results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the total score for fall-related behaviors was significantly related to falls. It was suggested that 11 fall-related behaviors may be effective indicators to predict falls among the elderly patients with dementia.

  20. Anxiety, depression, and fall-related psychological concerns in community-dwelling older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hull, Samantha L; Kneebone, Ian I; Farquharson, Lorna

    2013-12-01

    Establish the association between affect and fall-related psychological concerns (fear of falling, fall-related self-efficacy, balance confidence, and outcome expectancy). A total of 205 community-dwelling older people (mean age 81, SD 7.5 years) completed the Geriatric Depression Scale-15, Geriatric Anxiety Inventory, Modified Survey of Activities and Fear of Falling, Falls-Efficacy Scale- International, Activity-Specific Balance Confidence Scale, and the Consequences of Falling Scale. Hierarchical regression models showed that anxiety was independently associated with all fall-related psychological concerns; depression was only associated with falls efficacy. Associations between fall-related psychological concerns and age, gender, accommodation,medications, self-rated physical health, falls history, mobility, and sensory aids are also discussed. This is the first study that investigates the association between affect and the four fall-related psychological concerns. Anxiety was a significant factor associated with all four, whereas depression was only associated with activity avoidance. Implications for healthcare providers are discussed. Copyright © 2013 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Influence of high fall-related self-efficacy on falls due to dissociation with ADL among elderly women in nursing homes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Chikako; Ida, Kunio; Harada, Atsushi

    2009-09-01

    We examined the influence of high fall-related self-efficacy on falls due to dissociation with activities of daily living (ADL) among elderly women in nursing homes. We enrolled 72 female nursing home residents who were 70 years old or over and who scored 18 or higher on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Subjects were classified into three groups based on the relationship between ADL and fall-related self-efficacy derived from a scattergram of the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) motor items and Falls Efficacy Scale (FES). The three groups were: group I which had low ADL and high fall-related self-efficacy (n=25); group II which had high ADL and low fall-related self-efficacy (n=30); and group III which had a correlation of ADL and fall-related self-efficacy in the 95% confidence interval (n=17). Then, we investigated the incidence of falls and the number of falls after 6 months in the three groups. The risk factor of falls was also investigated using multiple logistic regression analysis. The incidence and number of falls were significantly different in the three groups after 6 months. Moreover, the incidence of those falling was significantly different between group I and group III. The occurrence of falls was also significantly related with a past history of falls, FES, and group I which had low ADL and high fall-related self-efficacy. These findings suggest that the risk of falling increases in the presence of excessive fall-related self-efficacy dissociated from ADL.

  2. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  3. Impact of remote oceanic forcing on Gulf of Alaska sea levels and mesoscale circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Metzger, E. Joseph; Hurlburt, Harley E.

    2003-11-01

    We examine the relative importance of regional wind forcing and teleconnections by an oceanic pathway for impact on interannual ocean circulation variability in the Gulf of Alaska. Any additional factors that contribute to this variability, such as freshwater forcing from river runoff, are disregarded. The study is based on results from numerical simulations, sea level data from tide gauge stations, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimeter data. At the heart of this investigation is a comparison of ocean simulations that include and exclude interannual oceanic teleconnections of an equatorial origin. Using lagged correlations, the model results imply that 70-90% of the interannual coastal sea level variance in the Gulf of Alaska can be related to interannual sea levels at La Libertad, Equador. These values are higher than the corresponding range from sea level data, which is 25-55%. When oceanic teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific are excluded in the model, the explained variance becomes about 20% or less. During poleward propagation the coastally trapped sea level signal in the model is less attenuated than the observed signal. In the Gulf of Alaska we find well-defined sea level peaks in the aftermath of El Niño events. The interannual intensity of eddies in the Gulf of Alaska also peaks after El Niño events; however, these maxima are less clear after weak and moderate El Niño events. The interannual variations in eddy activity intensity are predominantly governed by the regional atmospheric forcing.

  4. Can salt marshes survive sea level rise ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambroni, N.; Seminara, G.

    2008-12-01

    Stability of salt marshes is a very delicate issue depending on the subtle interplay among hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and ecology. In fact, the elevation of the marsh platform depends essentially on three effects: i) the production of soil associated with sediments resuspended by tidal currents and wind waves in the adjacent tidal flats, advected to the marsh and settling therein; ii) production of organic sediments by the salt marsh vegetation; iii) soil 'loss' driven by sea level rise and subsidence. In order to gain insight into the mechanics of the process, we consider a schematic configuration consisting of a salt marsh located at the landward end of a tidal channel connected at the upstream end with a tidal sea, under different scenarios of sea level rise. We extend the simple 1D model for the morphodynamic evolution of a tidal channel formulated by Lanzoni and Seminara (2002, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 107, C1) allowing for sediment resuspension in the channel and vegetation growth in the marsh using the depth dependent model of biomass productivity of Spartina proposed by Morris et al. (2002, Ecology, 83, pp. 2869 - 2877). We first focus on the case of a tide dominated salt marsh neglecting wind driven sediment resuspension in the shoal. Results show that the production of biomass plays a crucial role on salt marsh stability and, provided productivity is high enough, it may turn out to be sufficient to counteract the effects of sea level rise even in the absence of significant supply of mineral sediments. The additional effect of wind resuspension is then introduced. Note that the wind action is twofold: on one hand, it generates wind waves the amplitude of which is strongly dependent on shoal depth and wind fetch; on the other hand, it generates currents driven by the surface setup induced by the shear stress acting on the free surface. Here, each contribution is analysed separately. Results show that the values of bottom stress induced by

  5. Sea Level, Land Motion, and the Anomalous Tide at Churchill, Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, R. D.

    2015-12-01

    The importance of the tide gauge at Churchill, Manitoba, cannot be overstated. It is the only permanently operating tide gauge in the central Canadian Arctic, and it sits on a prime spot for monitoring the mantle's rebound from the Laurentide ice loss. Yet interpretation of the sea-level time series at Churchill has long been problematic, going back even to early work by Gutenberg in the 1940s. The long-term relative sea-level rates are inconsistent: approximately -4, -19, -5 ± 1 mm/y for the periods 1940-1970, 1970-1990, 1990-2014 respectively. Annual mean high water (MHW) and mean low water (MLW) reflect these trends until around 1990, after which MLW leveled off and is now nearly unchanging. Slightly later, around 2000, the semidiurnal tides became very anomalous, with falling amplitudes and slightly increasing phase lags. The amplitude of M2 was approximately 154 cm before 2000; it dropped to about 146 cm by 2010 and reached an all-time low of 142 cm in 2014. Satellite altimeter estimates of the tide in this region, although challenging because of seasonal ice cover, show no comparable M2 changes, so the tidal changes must be localized to the near vicinity of the gauge (or to the gauge itself if caused by a malfunction). On the other hand, altimetry confirms the post-1992 Churchill measurements of mean sea level, thanks to the long time series of land motion measurements obtained at GPS station CHUR, which gives a vertical uplift of 10.1 mm/y. Combining satellite altimeter data with the Churchill tide-gauge data gives an implied vertical crustal rate of about 9.0 ± 0.8 mm/y, in reasonable agreement with the GPS. In summary, we have still anomalous MSL measurements at the Churchill gauge for the intermediate 1970-1990 era, and very anomalous tidal measurements since 2000, but we have apparently quite reliable MSL rates since 1990.

  6. Depositional and sea-level history from MIS 6 (Termination II) to MIS 3 on the southern continental shelf of South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawthra, H. C.; Jacobs, Z.; Compton, J. S.; Fisher, E. C.; Karkanas, P.; Marean, C. W.

    2018-02-01

    around still-stand events. Periods of relatively slow average rise or fall of sea level are represented by erosional planation surfaces in this record.

  7. Coastal Marsh Longevity, Ecological Succession, and Organic Carbon Dynamics During Early Holocene Sea-Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, L.; Schreiner, K. M.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Tornqvist, T. E.

    2016-02-01

    Coastal marsh environments perform essential ecosystem services, including nutrient filtering, soil organic matter storage, and storm surge abatement, yet much is still unknown about their formation and fate under periods of sea-level change. During the early Holocene (7-10 ka), rapid sea-level rise in coastal Louisiana was one of the primary controls over marsh development and longevity. Here, we investigate plant community composition and succession and soil organic matter storage in early Holocene coastal marshes in Louisiana using bulk elemental ratios, lignin phenol biomarkers and stable isotopes from peat layers. Sediment cores were collected in southeastern Louisiana and contain a record of an early Holocene transgressive sea-level sequence 16-25 m below present sea-level. The sedimentary record consists of an immature paleosol overlain by basal peat that accumulated in an estuarine marsh, overlain by marine lagoonal muds. A re-established marsh peat is present 1-4 m above the initial transition to marine conditions, indicating a sequence of marsh development, sea-level rise and onset of marine conditions, and then further marsh development as the rate of relative sea-level rise decelerated. Plant community composition in coastal marshes was determined through cupric oxide oxidation and lignin-phenol and non-lignin-phenol biomarker abundances. The degradation state of soil organic matter and the specific source of stabilized organic matter within the sedimentary peats were determined through lignin-phenol biomarker ratios. Organic matter sources ranged from terrestrial to marine over the course of sea-level rise, and different sites showed different amounts of marine organic matter influence and different levels of terrestrial organic matter degradation. These results have important implications for reconstructing the response of coastal marshes and their plant communities to accelerated rates of sea-level rise projected through 2100.

  8. Possible Evidence of Multiple Sea Level Oscillations in the Seychelles During the Last Interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A. L.; Vyverberg, K.; Webster, J.; Dechnik, B.; Zwartz, D.; Lambeck, K.

    2013-12-01

    In search of a eustatic sea level signal on glacial-interglacial timescales, the Seychelles ranks as one of the best places on the planet to study. Owing to its far-field location with respect to the former margins of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, glacio-hydro-isostatic models predict that relative sea level in the Seychelles should lie within a few meters of the globally averaged eustatic signal during interglacial periods. We have surveyed and dated fossil coral reefs from the last interglacial period to determine the magnitude of peak sea level and to assess sedimentologic evidence of potential sea level oscillations. Numerous outcrops we studied in detail exhibit a stratigraphic sequence comprised of in situ coralgal framework at the base, capped by thick coralline algae crusts, and overlain by coral rubble deposits. We also observed a succession of three stacked coralgal reefs within a single outcrop, separated by hardgrounds that have been bored by molluscs. In general, the succession within each reef unit consists of interlayered corals and crusts of coralline algae-vermetid gastropods-encrusting foraminifera. The lower two reef units are capped by a well-cemented 5 to 10 cm thick carbonate mud layer that is heavily bored by molluscs. These two surfaces may represent exposure surfaces during brief sea level oscillations, where sea level fell and exposed the top of the reef sequence, which was subsequently bored when sea level rose again and reef growth resumed. The elevations of the corals in each reef unit provide minimum elevations of sea level during each of the three pulses of sea level highstands during the last interglacial period. Significantly, since many of these corals are capped by thick coralline algae layers that contain vermetid gastropods and encrusting foraminifera that are indicative of the intertidal zone, there is strong evidence that these corals grew in extremely shallow water, providing a robust indication of sea level position. These

  9. [Systematic review of fall-related factors among the house-dwelling elderly in Japan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueno, Megumi; Kawai, Sachio; Mino, Tairai; Kamoshita, Hiroshi

    2006-01-01

    Fall-related factors and individual characteristics of the elderly who have had fall are necessary to develop practical fall prevention programs, and life support management. However, no nation-wide meta-analysis of the fall-related factors of elderly has been performed in Japan. To conduct a meta-analysis concerning fall-related factors among the house-dwelling elderly in Japan. Japana Centra Revuo Medicina, version 3 (systematic literature search system for Japanese literature), and Pub Med (a service of the National Library of Medicine) from January 1994 to December 2003. Study search terms included the following: retrograde case-control, prospective cohort, and retrospective cohort study with falls. Search terms included older adults (60 years and over), falls and humans. Thirty-two fall-related factors were meta-analyzed. Among 32 fall-related factors, only nine factors were statistically proven to be related to falls. These factors were female gender, age over 70 years old, fall experience, past history of cerebrovascular disease, grip strength, knee extensor strength, one foot standing time with eyes open, one foot standing time with eyes closed, and skinfold thickness (female). Eleven factors: presence of a spouse, past medical history of hypertension, complaints of dizziness, numbness of the extremities, 10 meter maximum walking velocity, tendency to stumble, use of supportive equipment, standing postural sway. sitting trunk flexion, skinfold thickness (male), and body mass index, were not statistically proven to be related to falls. More studies are necessary to determine the efficacy of fall-related factors among the Japanese elderly.

  10. Ice volume and climate changes from a 6000 year sea-level record in French Polynesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N; Camoin, G; Eisenhauer, A; Botella, A; Milne, G A; Vella, C; Samankassou, E; Pothin, V; Dussouillez, P; Fleury, J; Fietzke, J

    2018-01-18

    Mid- to late-Holocene sea-level records from low-latitude regions serve as an important baseline of natural variability in sea level and global ice volume prior to the Anthropocene. Here, we reconstruct a high-resolution sea-level curve encompassing the last 6000 years based on a comprehensive study of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders. Our curve is based on microatolls from several islands in a single region and comprises a total of 82 sea-level index points. Assuming thermosteric contributions are negligible on millennial time scales, our results constrain global ice melting to be 1.5-2.5 m (sea-level equivalent) since ~5500 years before present. The reconstructed curve includes isolated rapid events of several decimetres within a few centuries, one of which is most likely related to loss from the Antarctic ice sheet mass around 5000 years before present. In contrast, the occurrence of large and flat microatolls indicates periods of significant sea-level stability lasting up to ~300 years.

  11. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  12. Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

    Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

  13. Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J; Price, René M; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B; Calafat, Francisco M; Dangendorf, Sönke

    2014-04-14

    There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

  14. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  15. Azimuth selection for sea level measurements using geodetic GPS receivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaolei; Zhang, Qin; Zhang, Shuangcheng

    2018-03-01

    Based on analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) multipath signals recorded by a geodetic GPS receiver, GPS Reflectometry (GPS-R) has demonstrated unique advantages in relation to sea level monitoring. Founded on multipath reflectometry theory, sea level changes can be measured by GPS-R through spectral analysis of recorded signal-to-noise ratio data. However, prior to estimating multipath parameters, it is necessary to define azimuth and elevation angle mask to ensure the reflecting zones are on water. Here, a method is presented to address azimuth selection, a topic currently under active development in the field of GPS-R. Data from three test sites: the Kachemak Bay GPS site PBAY in Alaska (USA), Friday Harbor GPS site SC02 in the San Juan Islands (USA), and Brest Harbor GPS site BRST in Brest (France) are analyzed. These sites are located in different multipath environments, from a rural coastal area to a busy harbor, and they experience different tidal ranges. Estimates by the GPS tide gauges at azimuths selected by the presented method are compared with measurements from physical tide gauges and acceptable correspondence found for all three sites.

  16. Present day sea level changes: observation and causes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, A.

    2005-11-01

    Whereas sea level has changed little over the last 2000 years, it has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/year during the 20. century. This unexpected sea level rise has been attributed to the anthropogenic global warming, recorded over several decades. Sea level variations have been measured globally and precisely for about 12 years due to satellite altimeter missions Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1. These observations indicate a global mean sea level rise of about 3 mm/year since 1993, a value significantly larger than observed during previous decades. Recent observations have allowed us to quantify the various climatic factors contributing to observed sea level change: thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in the land water reservoirs. A water budget based on these new observations allows us to partly explain the observed sea level rise. In particular, we show that the thermal expansion explains only 25% of the secular sea level rise as recorded by tide-gauges over the last 50 years, while it contributes about 50% of sea level rise observed over the last decade. Meanwhile, recent studies show that glacier and ice sheet melting could contribute the equivalent of 1 mm/year in sea level rise over the last decade. In addition, the high regional variability of sea level trends revealed by satellite altimetry is mainly due to thermal expansion. There is also an important decadal spatio-temporal variability in the ocean thermal expansion over the last 50 years, which seems to be controlled by natural climate fluctuations. We question for the first time the link between the decadal fluctuations in the ocean thermal expansion and in the land reservoirs, and indeed their climatic contribution to sea level change. Finally a preliminary analysis of GRACE spatial gravimetric observations over the oceans allows us to estimate the seasonal variations in mean sea level due to ocean water mass balance variations

  17. Fall-related experiences of stroke survivors: a meta-ethnography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Mary; Galvin, Rose; Horgan, N Frances

    2017-04-01

    Health professionals view falls after stroke as common adverse events with both physical and psychological consequences. Stroke survivors' experiences are less well understood. The aim of this systematic review was to explore the perception of falls-risk within the stroke recovery experience from the perspective of people with stroke. A systematic literature search was conducted. Papers that used qualitative methods to explore the experiences of individuals with stroke around falls, falls-risk and fear of falling were included. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality of papers. Meta-ethnography was conducted. Concepts from each study were translated into each other to form theories that were combined through a "lines-of-argument" synthesis. Four themes emerged from the six included qualitative studies: (i) Fall circumstances, (ii) perception of fall consequences, (iii) barriers to community participation and (iv) coping strategies. The synthesis revealed that stroke survivors' perceived consequences of falls exist on a continuum. Cognitive and emotional adjustment may be required in the successful adoption of coping strategies to overcome fall-related barriers to participation. Stroke survivors' fall-related experiences appear to exist within the context of activity and community participation. Further research is warranted due to the small number of substantive studies available for synthesis. Implications for Rehabilitation Health care professionals should recognize that cognitive and emotional adjustment may berequired for stroke survivors to accept strategies for overcoming falls-risk, including dependenceon carers and assistive devices. Several factors in addition to physical interventions may be needed to minimize falls-risk whileincreasing activity participation. These factors could include increasing public awareness about the effects of stroke and falls-risk,and ensuring access to psychological services for stroke survivors

  18. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

  19. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In-Fun Li

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: Elderly Taiwanese inpatients with existing intrinsic conditions of cancer, vertigo, and lower leg weakness were at high risk of falling, resulting in severe injuries. Additional research including controlled trials is necessary to further identify treatable, causal intrinsic risk factors for this elderly group.

  20. Role of physical activity in the occurrence of falls and fall-related injuries in community-dwelling adults over 50 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Catarina L N; Baptista, Fátima; Infante, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the effect of the type, level and amount of physical activity in falls and fall-related injuries. Participants were 506 community-dwelling adults aged >50 years (390 women: 67.7 ± 6.8 years and 116 men: 69.6 ± 6.6 years). Falls, fall-related injuries (slight and severe), and physical activity (type, level and energy expenditure) were evaluated by questionnaires. Confounders included co-morbidities, fear of falling, environmental hazards and physical fitness. After adjustment for confounders, logistic analysis revealed that the likelihood of falling decreased by 2% for each 100 metabolic expenditure (MET-min/week) of total physical activity and increased by 5% for each 100 MET-min/week of vigorous-intensity physical activity; total physical activity >1125 MET-min/week and vigorous physical activity physical activity level, increased physical activity levels diminished the likelihood of the occurrence of severe fall-related injuries by 76% (moderate) and 58% (high; p active, especially sufficiently active, reduces fall-related injuries by decreasing falls and by safeguarding against severe injuries when falls occur. At least 1125 MET-min/week of total physical activity including >500 MET-min/week of vigorous intensity seems to prevent falls and, therefore, fall-related injuries.

  1. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  2. Integrated analysis of beach ridge and lagoon systems as indicator of sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Lasse; Hede, Mikkel U.; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Morigi, Caterina; Johannessen, Peter N.; Nielsen, Lars; Clemmensen, Lars B.; Nielsen, Lars H.; Pejrup, Morten

    2015-04-01

    Beach ridges and lagoons are common features of the modern coastal landscape in much of Denmark and represent an important part of the Holocene raised marine deposits. We here present our results from investigations into the possibilities of retrieving continuous relative sea-level (RSL) information from these sedimentary archives, as facilitated by the analysis of surface morphology, coring, subsurface imaging, absolute chronology, and modern analogues. The island of Samsø (55˚51'N, 10˚36'E) was chosen as a case study example. While each of the used archives merely covers a part of the mid to late Holocene developments, their joint analysis allows identifying and separating periods of rapid RSL rise, stability and fall over most of the island's marine stage. We present possible correlations of the data from the lagoons with data from a wide beach-ridge system and suggest causal relations of the RSL reconstruction with the spatial arrangements of marine and glacial landforms on Samsø. The integrated use of a geographical perspective combined with geological precision and methodology has proven to be of great value for understanding temporal, spatial, and process relations in the investigated coastal environment. The study stresses the value of analyzing genetically independent though complementary sedimentary archives to retrieve more complete and potentially more robust results. The presented approach may be useful in microtidal, sediment-surplus environments with a transgressive-regressive Holocene RSL history.

  3. Preventive Effects of Safety Helmets on Traumatic Brain Injury after Work-Related Falls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Chul Kim

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Work-related traumatic brain injury (TBI caused by falls is a catastrophic event that leads to disabilities and high socio-medical costs. This study aimed to measure the magnitude of the preventive effect of safety helmets on clinical outcomes and to compare the effect across different heights of fall. Methods: We collected a nationwide, prospective database of work-related injury patients who visited the 10 emergency departments between July 2010 and October 2012. All of the adult patients who experienced work-related fall injuries were eligible, excluding cases with unknown safety helmet use and height of fall. Primary and secondary endpoints were intracranial injury and in-hospital mortality. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (AORs of safety helmet use and height of fall for study outcomes, and adjusted for any potential confounders. Results: A total of 1298 patients who suffered from work-related fall injuries were enrolled. The industrial or construction area was the most common place of fall injury occurrence, and 45.0% were wearing safety helmets at the time of fall injuries. The safety helmet group was less likely to have intracranial injury comparing with the no safety helmet group (the adjusted odds ratios (ORs (95% confidence interval (CI: 0.42 (0.24–0.73, however, there was no statistical difference of in-hospital mortality between two groups (the adjusted ORs (95% CI: 0.83 (0.34–2.03. In the interaction analysis, preventive effects of safety helmet on intracranial injury were significant within 4 m height of fall. Conclusions: A safety helmet is associated with prevention of intracranial injury resulting from work-related fall and the effect is preserved within 4 m height of fall. Therefore, wearing a safety helmet can be an intervention for protecting fall-related intracranial injury in the workplace.

  4. Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm

    2014-10-28

    The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet's dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka(-1) punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5-14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y(-1) (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100-150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15-20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

  5. More than 70 years of continuous sea level records on the Santander Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavín, Alicia; Tel, Elena; Molinero, Joaquin; Rodriguez, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    The knowledge of sea level height is important for many different sectors as navigation, transport, building infrastructures, tourism, or maritime sports, between others. Tides are mainly composed of an astronomical part and a meteorological one. Sometimes, their joined action is the responsible of extreme behaviors in the sea level. Influence of pressure differences, as well as related winds, is important in the behavior of sea level to analyze. The first system for reading the sea level was a tide board attached at the pier. In Spain the first modern tide gauge was installed in the Port of Alicante, Mediterranean Sea, in 1873 depending of the National Geographic Institute (IGN). Just the following year, a similar tide gauge was installed at the entrance of the Santander Bay. "La Magdalena" tide gauge was working during two periods 1876-1928 and 1963-1975. Together with Cádiz, the IGN tide gauges were used to determinate the national datum for terrestrial cartography. The Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) tide gauge network was initiated in 1943 with the installation of tide gauges along the Spanish coast. One of them was located in Santander and has been working since then. At the beginning it was a float tide gauge connected to a graphical continuous recorder. Nowadays, it also has a digital encoder and a remote connection that allow using the recorded data for operational purposes. Later a Radar system was added. This tide gauge is referred to the Tide Gauge Zero and also calibrated to a benchmark in order to have a unique reference. This high quality sea level information is required for international and regional research activities, as Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). In particular, long time series are widely used for climate change detection. The sea level long term variability studies require a very good quality data focus in the reference of the data along the whole period and also it will be more precisely if we can remove the crustal

  6. Experimental investigation of channel avulsion frequency on river deltas under rising sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, J.; Chadwick, A. J.; Steele, S.; Lamb, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    River deltas are low-relief landscapes that are socioeconomically important; they are home to over half a billion people worldwide. Many deltas are built by cycles of lobe growth punctuated by abrupt channel shifts, or avulsions, which often reoccur at a similar location and with a regular frequency. Previous experimental work has investigated the effect of hydrodynamic backwater in controlling channel avulsion location and timing on deltas under constant sea level conditions, but it is unclear how sea-level rise impacts avulsion dynamics. We present results from a flume experiment designed to isolate the role of relative sea-level rise on the evolution of a backwater-influenced delta. The experiment was conducted in the river-ocean facility at Caltech, where a 7m long, 14cm wide alluvial river drains into a 6m by 3m "ocean" basin. The experimental delta grew under subcritical flow, a persistent backwater zone, and a range of sea level rise rates. Without sea level rise, lobe progradation produced in-channel aggradation and periodic avulsions every 3.6 ± 0.9 hours, which corresponded to when channels aggraded to approximately one-half of their flow depth. With a modest rate of sea-level rise (0.25 mm/hr), we observed enhanced aggradation in the backwater zone, causing channels to aggrade more quickly and avulse more frequently (every 2.1 ± 0.6 hours). In future work, we expect further increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise to cause avulsion frequency to decrease as the delta drowns and the backwater zone retreats upstream. Experimental results can serve as tests of numerical models that are needed for hazard mitigation and coastal sustainability efforts on drowning deltas.

  7. Trends in fall-related hospital admissions in older persons in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.A. Hartholt (Klaas); N. van der Velde (Nathalie); C.W.N. Looman (Caspar); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther); M.J.M. Panneman (Martien); E.F. van Beeck (Ed); P. Patka (Peter); T.J.M. van der Cammen (Tischa)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Fall-related injuries, hospitalizations, and mortality among older persons represent a major public health problem. Owing to aging societies worldwide, a major impact on fall-related health care demand can be expected. We determined time trends in numbers and incidence of

  8. The risk factors for impulsivity-related falls among hospitalized older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Marisa; Harrison, Barbara; Lewis, Doresea

    2012-01-01

    Falls among older adults are a common, preventable problem associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Impulsivity is a known risk factor for older adult falls; however, there is a gap in evidence demonstrating the unique risk factors associated with impulsivity related falls (IRF). The research explored the association between seven fall risk factors and impulsivity related falls in hospitalized older adults in a community hospital. This retrospective descriptive study analyzed the association between seven fall risk factors and IRF in hospitalized older adults. The sample (N = 233) included patients age 65 years and older who had a documented in-patient fall in 2008. Of the falls, 29.7% were classified as IRF. The mean age of patients with IRF was 78 years, with the median day of fall being Day 5 of hospitalization/rehabilitation admission. Logistic regression demonstrated that only inattention and cognitive impairment were significant risk factors for IRF. The incidence of IRF was 29.7%. Our findings also indicate that cognitive impairment and inattention are strongest predictors for IRF among usual risk factors. Early identification of the unique risk factors associated with IRF could improve identification and reduce fall rates among hospitalized older adults. © 2012 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

  9. Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

    2017-11-01

    To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Late Quaternary sea level and environmental changes from relic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Keywords. Late Quaternary sea level; western margin of India; subsidence; uplift; depositional environment. ...... sea level rise by about 80m (between 12,000 and. 7,000 yr BP) or, .... from the Florida Keys; Palaentology 28 189–206. Carballo ...

  11. Sea level oscillations over minute timescales: a global perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibic, Ivica; Sepic, Jadranka

    2016-04-01

    Sea level oscillations occurring over minutes to a few hours are an important contributor to sea level extremes, and a knowledge on their behaviour is essential for proper quantification of coastal marine hazards. Tsunamis, meteotsunamis, infra-gravity waves and harbour oscillations may even dominate sea level extremes in certain areas and thus pose a great danger for humans and coastal infrastructure. Aside for tsunamis, which are, due to their enormous impact to the coastlines, a well-researched phenomena, the importance of other high-frequency oscillations to the sea level extremes is still underrated, as no systematic long-term measurements have been carried out at a minute timescales. Recently, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established Sea Level Monitoring Facility portal (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org), making 1-min sea level data publicly available for several hundred tide gauge sites in the World Ocean. Thereafter, a global assessment of oscillations over tsunami timescales become possible; however, the portal contains raw sea level data only, being unchecked for spikes, shifts, drifts and other malfunctions of instruments. We present a quality assessment of these data, estimates of sea level variances and contributions of high-frequency processes to the extremes throughout the World Ocean. This is accompanied with assessment of atmospheric conditions and processes which generate intense high-frequency oscillations.

  12. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  13. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined

  14. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S. E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, Michael; Bal, Henri E.; Seinstra, Frank J.; van Werkhoven, Ben; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and

  15. Diurnal variations of serum erythropoietin at sea level and altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, T; Poulsen, T D; Fogh-Andersen, N

    1996-01-01

    in 2, 3 diphosphoglycerate. After 64 h at altitude, six of the nine subjects had down-regulated their serum-EPO concentrations so that median values were three times above those at sea level. These six subjects had significant diurnal variations of serum-EPO concentration at sea level; the nadir...

  16. Sea-level Variation Along the Suez Canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eid, F. M.; Sharaf El-Din, S. H.; Alam El-Din, K. A.

    1997-05-01

    The variation of sea level at 11 stations distributed along the Suez Canal was studied during the period from 1980 to 1986. The ranges of variation in daily mean sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik are about 60 and 120 cm, respectively. The minimum range of daily variation is at Kantara (47 cm). The fluctuations of the monthly mean sea level between the two ends of the Suez Canal vary from one season to another. From July to December, the sea level at Port Said is higher than that at Port Tawfik, with the maximum difference (10·5 cm) in September. During the rest of the year, the mean sea level at Port Tawfik is higher than that at Port Said, with the maximum difference (31·5 cm) in March. The long-term variations of the annual mean sea level at both Port Said and Port Tawfik for the period from 1923 to 1986 showed a positive trend. The sea level at Port Said increased by about 27·8 cm century -1while it increased by only 9·1 cm century -1at Port Tawfik. This indicates that the difference between sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik has decreased with time.

  17. A risk-factor analysis of medical litigation judgments related to fall injuries in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Insook; Won, Seonae; Lee, Mijin; Lee, Won

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to find out the risk factors through analysis of seven medical malpractice judgments related to fall injuries. The risk factors were analysed by using the framework that approaches falls from a systems perspective and comprised people, organisational or environmental factors, with each factor being comprised of subfactors. The risk factors found in each of the seven judgments were aggregated into one framework. The risk factors related to patients (i.e. the people factor) were age, pain, related disease, activities and functional status, urination state, cognitive function impairment, past history of fall, blood transfusion, sleep endoscopy state and uncooperative attitude. The risk factors related to the medical staff and caregivers (i.e. people factor) were observation negligence, no fall prevention activities and negligence in managing high-risk group for fall. Organisational risk factors were a lack of workforce, a lack of training, neglecting the management of the high-risk group, neglecting the management of caregivers and the absence of a fall prevention procedure. Regarding the environment, the risk factors were found to be the emergency room, chairs without a backrest and the examination table. Identifying risk factors is essential for preventing fall accidents, since falls are preventable patient-safety incidents. Falls do not happen as a result of a single risk factor. Therefore, a systems approach is effective to identify risk factors, especially organisational and environmental factors.

  18. Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

    2012-04-01

    In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade

  19. Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

  20. Prevention of falls and fall-related injuries in community-dwelling seniors: an evidence-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    In early August 2007, the Medical Advisory Secretariat began work on the Aging in the Community project, an evidence-based review of the literature surrounding healthy aging in the community. The Health System Strategy Division at the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care subsequently asked the secretariat to provide an evidentiary platform for the ministry's newly released Aging at Home Strategy.After a broad literature review and consultation with experts, the secretariat identified 4 key areas that strongly predict an elderly person's transition from independent community living to a long-term care home. Evidence-based analyses have been prepared for each of these 4 areas: falls and fall-related injuries, urinary incontinence, dementia, and social isolation. For the first area, falls and fall-related injuries, an economic model is described in a separate report.Please visit the Medical Advisory Secretariat Web site, http://www.health.gov.on.ca/english/providers/program/mas/mas_about.html, to review these titles within the Aging in the Community series.AGING IN THE COMMUNITY: Summary of Evidence-Based AnalysesPrevention of Falls and Fall-Related Injuries in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based AnalysisBehavioural Interventions for Urinary Incontinence in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based AnalysisCaregiver- and Patient-Directed Interventions for Dementia: An Evidence-Based AnalysisSocial Isolation in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based AnalysisThe Falls/Fractures Economic Model in Ontario Residents Aged 65 Years and Over (FEMOR) OBJECTIVE: To identify interventions that may be effective in reducing the probability of an elderly person's falling and/or sustaining a fall-related injury. Although estimates of fall rates vary widely based on the location, age, and living arrangements of the elderly population, it is estimated that each year approximately 30% of community-dwelling individuals aged 65 and older, and 50% of those aged 85

  1. Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components

    CERN Document Server

    Champollion, Nicolas; Paul, Frank; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents the most recent results of global mean sea level variations over the satellite altimetry era (starting in the early 1990s) and associated contributions, such as glaciers and ice sheets mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and land water storage changes. Sea level is one of the best indicators of global climate changes as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to external forcing factors (including anthropogenic forcing) and internal climate variability. Providing long, accurate records of the sea level at global and regional scales and of the various components causing sea level changes is of crucial importance to improve our understanding of climate processes at work and to validate the climate models used for future projections. The Climate Change Initiative project of the European Space Agency has provided a first attempt to produce consistent and continuous space-based records for several climate parameters observable from space, among them sea level. Th...

  2. Neighborhood Factors and Fall-Related Injuries among Older Adults Seen by Emergency Medical Service Providers

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Sungmin; Lee, Chanam; Rodiek, Susan

    2017-01-01

    Falls are serious health problems among older adults, and are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries treated by emergency medical services (EMS). Although considerable research has examined the risk factors of falls at the individual level, relatively few studies have addressed the risk factors at the neighborhood level. This study examines the characteristics of neighborhood environments associated with fall injuries reported to EMS providers. A total of 13,163 EMS records from 201...

  3. Changes in BOLD and ADC weighted imaging in acute hypoxia during sea-level and altitude adapted states

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostrup, Egill; Larsson, Henrik B.W.; Born, Alfred P.

    2005-01-01

    possible structural changes as measured by diffusion weighted imaging. Eleven healthy sea-level residents were studied after 5 weeks of adaptation to high altitude conditions at Chacaltaya, Bolivia (5260 m). The subjects were studied immediately after return to sea-level in hypoxic and normoxic conditions...... was slightly elevated in high altitude as compared to sea-level adaptation. It is concluded that hypoxia significantly diminishes the BOLD response, and the mechanisms underlying this finding are discussed. Furthermore, altitude adaptation may influence both the magnitude of the activation-related response......, and the examinations repeated 6 months later after re-adaptation to sea-level conditions. The BOLD response, measured at 1.5 T, was severely reduced during acute hypoxia both in the altitude and sea-level adapted states (50% reduction during an average S(a)O(2) of 75%). On average, the BOLD response magnitude was 23...

  4. Falls incidence underestimates the risk of fall-related injuries in older age groups : a comparison with the FARE (Falls risk by Exposure)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etman, Astrid; Wijlhuizen, Gert Jan; van Heuvelen, Marieke J. G.; Chorus, Astrid; Hopman-Rock, Marijke

    Background: up till now, the risk of falls has been expressed as falls incidence (i.e. the number of falls or fallers per 100 person-years). However, the risk of an accident or injury is the probability of having an accident or injury per unit of exposure. The FARE ( Falls risk by Exposure) is a

  5. Falls incidence underestimates the risk of fall-related injuries in older age groups: a comparison with the FARE (Falls risk by Exposure)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etman, A.; Wijlhuizen, G.J.; van Heuvelen, M.J.G.; Chorus, A.M.J.; Hopman-Rock, M.

    2012-01-01

    Background: up till now, the risk of falls has been expressed as falls incidence (i.e. the number of falls or fallers per 100 person-years). However, the risk of an accident or injury is the probability of having an accident or injury per unit of exposure. The FARE (Falls risk by Exposure) is a

  6. Falls incidence underestimates the risk of fall-related injuries in older age groups: A comparison with the FARE (Falls risk by exposure)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etman, A.; Wijlhuizen, G.J.; Heuvelen, M.J.G. van; Chorus, A.; Hopman-Rock, M.

    2012-01-01

    Background: up till now, the risk of falls has been expressed as falls incidence (i.e. the number of falls or fallers per 100 person-years). However, the risk of an accident or injury is the probability of having an accident or injury per unit of exposure. The FARE (Falls risk by Exposure) is a

  7. Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke-Xiu LIU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Tide gauge data from 1950 to 2015 are used to analyze sea level change, tidal change, return levels, and design tide levels under rising sea level scenarios in Bohai Bay. Results show the following: 1 Since 1950 sea levels in Bohai Bay show a significant rising trend of 3.3 mm per year. The speed has been particularly rapid in 1980–2015 at a rate of 4.7 mm per year. 2 Astronomical tides showed a clear long-term trend in 1950–2015. The amplitude and phase lag of the M2 tide constituent decreased at a rate of 0.21 cm per year and 0.11° per year, respectively and the phase lag of K1 decreased at a rate of 0.09° per year, whereas there was little change in its amplitude. The mean high and low tides increased at a rate of 0.08 and 0.52 cm per year, respectively, whereas the mean tidal range decreased at a rate of 0.44 cm per year. Results from numerical experiments show that local sea level rise plays an important role in the tidal dynamics change in Bohai Bay. 3 It is considered that the sea level return periods will decrease owing to the influence of sea level rise and land subsidence, therefore design tide level will change in relation to sea level rise. Therefore, the ability of seawalls to withstand water will diminish, and storm surge disasters will become more serious in the future.

  8. Infilling and flooding of the Mekong River incised valley during deglacial sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjallingii, Rik; Stattegger, Karl; Wetzel, Andreas; Van Phach, Phung

    2010-06-01

    The abrupt transition from fluvial to marine deposition of incised-valley-fill sediments retrieved from the southeast Vietnamese shelf, accurately records the postglacial transgression after 14 ka before present (BP). Valley-filling sediments consist of fluvial mud, whereas sedimentation after the transgression is characterized by shallow-marine carbonate sands. This change in sediment composition is accurately marked in high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records. Rapid aggradation of fluvial sediments at the river mouth nearly completely filled the Mekong incised valley prior to flooding. However, accumulation rates strongly reduced in the valley after the river-mouth system flooded and stepped back. This also affected the sediment supply to deeper parts of the southeast Vietnamese shelf. Comparison of the Mekong valley-filling with the East Asian sea-level history of sub- and inter-tidal sediment records shows that the transgressive surface preserved in the incised-valley-fill records is a robust sea-level indicator. The valley was nearly completely filled with fluvial sediments between 13.0 and 9.5 ka BP when sea-level rose rather constantly with approximately 10 mm/yr, as indicated by the East Asian sea-level record. At shallower parts of the shelf, significant sediment reworking and the establishment of estuarine conditions at the final stage of infilling complicates accurate dating of the transgressive surface. Nevertheless, incised-valley-fill records and land-based drill sites indicate a vast and rapid flooding of the shelf from the location of the modern Vietnamese coastline to the Cambodian lowlands between 9.5 ka and 8.5 ka BP. Fast flooding of this part of the shelf is related with the low shelf gradient and a strong acceleration of the East Asian sea-level rise from 34 to 9 meter below modern sea level (mbsl) corresponding to the sea-level jump of melt water pulse (MWP) 1C.

  9. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  10. Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

  11. THE IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. M. Din

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015 for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015 for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 – 1993 and 32 years (1984 – 2015 tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  12. Constraining the Antarctic contribution to interglacial sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naish, T.; Mckay, R. M.; Barrett, P. J.; Levy, R. H.; Golledge, N. R.; Deconto, R. M.; Horgan, H. J.; Dunbar, G. B.

    2015-12-01

    Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1- 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the

  13. Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

  14. Sea Level Data Archaeology for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andy; Rickards, Lesley; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) was set up in 1985 to collect long term tide gauge observations and has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, including sending member organisations questionnaires to report on their repositories. The GLOSS Group of Experts (GLOSS GE) is looking to future developments in sea level data archaeology and will provide its user community with guidance on finding, digitising, quality controlling and distributing historic records. Many records may not be held in organisational archives and may instead by in national libraries, archives and other collections. GLOSS will promote a Citizen Science approach to discovering long term records by providing tools for volunteers to report data. Tide gauge data come in two different formats, charts and hand-written ledgers. Charts are paper analogue records generated by the mechanical instrument driving a pen trace. Several GLOSS members have developed software to automatically digitise these charts and the various methods were reported in a paper on automated techniques for the digitization of archived mareograms, delivered to the GLOSS GE 13th meeting. GLOSS is creating a repository of software for scanning analogue charts. NUNIEAU is the only publically available software for digitising tide gauge charts but other organisations have developed their own tide gauge digitising software that is available internally. There are several other freely available software packages that convert image data to numerical values. GLOSS could coordinate a comparison study of the various different digitising software programs by: Sending the same charts to each organisation and asking everyone to digitise them using their own procedures Comparing the digitised data Providing recommendations to the GLOSS community The other major form of analogue sea level data is handwritten ledgers, which are usually observations of high and low waters, but sometimes contain higher

  15. Sea level rise at Honolulu and Hilo, Hawaii: GPS estimates of differential land motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccamise, Dana J.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Bevis, Michael; Foster, James; Firing, Yvonne L.; Schenewerk, Mark S.; Taylor, Frederick W.; Thomas, Donald A.

    2005-02-01

    Since 1946, sea level at Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii has risen an average of 1.8 +/- 0.4 mm/yr faster than at Honolulu on the island of Oahu. This difference has been attributed to subsidence of the Big Island. However, GPS measurements indicate that Hilo is sinking relative to Honolulu at a rate of -0.4 +/- 0.5 mm/yr, which is too small to account for the difference in sea level trends. In the past 30 years, there has been a statistically significant reduction in the relative sea level trend. While it is possible that the rates of land motion have changed over this time period, the available hydrographic data suggest that interdecadal variations in upper ocean temperature account for much of the differential sea level signal between the two stations, including the recent trend change. These results highlight the challenges involved in estimating secular sea level trends in the presence of significant low frequency variability.

  16. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  17. The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser

    2015-04-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an \\'intermediate\\' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

  18. The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser; Churchill, James H.; Nellayaputhenpeedika, Mohammedali; Limeburner, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an 'intermediate' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

  19. Is impaired control of reactive stepping related to falls during inpatient stroke rehabilitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Avril; Inness, Elizabeth L; Wong, Jennifer S; Fraser, Julia E; McIlroy, William E

    2013-01-01

    Individuals with stroke fall more often than age-matched controls. Although many focus on the multifactorial nature of falls, the fundamental problem is likely the ability for an individual to generate reactions to recover from a loss of balance. Stepping reactions to recover balance are particularly important to balance recovery, and individuals with stroke have difficulty executing these responses to prevent a fall following a loss of balance. The purpose of this study is to determine if characteristics of balance recovery steps are related to falls during inpatient stroke rehabilitation. We conducted a retrospective review of individuals with stroke attending inpatient rehabilitation (n = 136). Details of falls experienced during inpatient rehabilitation were obtained from incident reports, nursing notes, and patient interviews. Stepping reactions were evoked using a "release-from-lean" postural perturbation. Poisson regression was used to determine characteristics of stepping reactions that were related to increased fall frequency relative to length of stay. In all, 20 individuals experienced 29 falls during inpatient rehabilitation. The characteristics of stepping reactions significantly related to increased fall rates were increased frequency of external assistance to prevent a fall to the floor, increased frequency of no-step responses, increased frequency of step responses with inadequate foot clearance, and delayed time to initiate stepping responses. Impaired control of balance recovery steps is related to increased fall rates during inpatient stroke rehabilitation. This study informs the specific features of stepping reactions that can be targeted with physiotherapy intervention during inpatient rehabilitation to improve dynamic stability control and potentially prevent falls.

  20. Fall-related hospitalisations of older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and other Australians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukaszyk, Caroline; Harvey, Lara A; Sherrington, Catherine; Close, Jacqueline Ct; Coombes, Julieann; Mitchell, Rebecca J; Moore, Robyn; Ivers, Rebecca

    2017-07-03

    To compare the socio-demographic characteristics and type of injury sustained, the use of hospital resources and rates of hospitalisation by injury type, and survival following fall injuries to older Aboriginal people and non-Indigenous Australian people hospitalised for fall-related injuries. Population-based retrospective cohort data linkage study. Setting, participants: New South Wales residents aged 50 years or more admitted to a public or private NSW hospital for a fall-related injury during 1 January 2003 - 31 December 2012. Proportions of patients with defined injury types, mean hospital length of stay (LOS), 30-day mortality, age-standardised hospitalisation rates and age-adjusted rate ratios, 28-day re-admission rates. There were 312 758 fall-related injury hospitalisations for 234 979 individuals; 2660 admissions (0.85%) were of Aboriginal people. The proportion of hospitalisations for fall-related fracture injuries was lower for Aboriginal than for non-Indigenous Australians (49% v 60% of fall-related hospitalisations; P Aboriginal patients was non-fracture injury to head or neck (19% of hospitalisations); for non-Indigenous patients it was hip fractures (18%). Age-adjusted LOS was lower for Aboriginal than for non-Indigenous patients (9.1 v 14.0 days; P Aboriginal people, fall injury hospitalisations increased at an annual rate of 5.8% (95% CI, 4.0-7.7%; P Aboriginal people and other older Australians, suggesting that different approaches are required to prevent and treat fall injuries.

  1. Relation between visual function index and falls-related factors in patients with age-related cataract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Na Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available AIM:To investigate the relation between vision function index and falls-related factors in patients with age-related cataract.METHODS:Ninety-six patients with age-related cataract were interviewed using a seven-item visual function questionnaire(VF-7, then classified into poor, moderate, or good visual function group. The differences of the three groups on visual acuity, balance and mobility function, cognition, depressive symptoms, self-reported fear of falling were analyzed. RESULTS:The patients in poor visual function group had older age, tendency to depression, was more afraid of falling, compared with groups with higher score in VF-7, and they had worse visual acuity, performed worse on all balance and mobility tests. CONCLUSION:Poor visual function is related to worse visual acuity, weaker balance and mobility performance in patients with age-related cataract. The VF-7, as a simple and convenient self-reported method, can be used as a falling risk monitoring in patients with age-related cataract.

  2. Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Raey, M.; Dewidar, K.R.; El-Hattab, M.

    1999-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness. 14 refs

  3. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  4. Nationwide time trends and risk factors for in-hospital falls-related major injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, T. S. H.; Hansen, A. H.; Sahlberg, M.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundAccidental falls during hospitalisation have a range of complications and more information is needed to improve prevention. We investigated patterns of in-hospital fall-related major injuries in the period 2000-2012 and the association between chronic conditions and in-hospital fall......-related major injuries. MethodsUsing administrative databases, patients aged 65+ years with in-hospital falls causing fractures or head injuries with need for surgery or intensive observation were identified as cases and were individually matched with five controls. Joinpoint regression was used to examine time...... trends and conditional logistic regression was used to analyse odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital falls-related major injuries according to a range of comorbidities. ResultsFour thousand seven hundred and fifty-four cases were identified from 2000 to 2012 and the most common injury was femur fracture (61...

  5. Measuring the Rate of Change in Sea Level and Its Adherence to USACE Sea Level Rise Planning Scenarios Using Timeseries Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, K. D.; Huang, N.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.; Moritz, H.; Obrien, P. S.; Friedman, D.

    2017-12-01

    In 2013, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) issued guidance for all Civil Works activities to incorporate the effects of sea level change as described in three distinct planning scenarios.[1] These planning scenarios provided a useful framework to incorporate these effects into Civil Works activities, but required the manual calculation of these scenarios for a given gage and set of datum. To address this need, USACE developed the Sea Level Change Curve Calculator (SLCCC) in 2014 which provided a "simple, web-based tool to provide repeatable analytical results."[2]USACE has been developing a successor to the SLCCC application which retains the same, intuitive functionality to calculate these planning scenarios, but it also allows the comparison of actual sea level change between 1992 and today against the projections, and builds on the user's ability to understand the rate of change using a variety of timeseries metrics (e.g. moving averages, trends) and related visualizations. These new metrics help both illustrate and measure the complexity and nuances of sea level change. [1] ER 1000-2-8162. http://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerRegulations/ER_1100-2-8162.pdf. [2] SLCC Manual. http://www.corpsclimate.us/docs/SLC_Calculator_Manual_2014_88.pdf.

  6. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-18

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  7. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data....... However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry......-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled...

  8. Endogenous hormones, muscle strength, and risk of fall-related fractures in older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipilä, Sarianna; Heikkinen, Eino; Cheng, Sulin; Suominen, Harri; Saari, Päivi; Kovanen, Vuokko; Alén, Markku; Rantanen, Taina

    2006-01-01

    Among older people, fracture-causing fall often leads to health deterioration. The role of endogenous hormone status and muscle strength on fall-related fracture risk is unclear. This study investigates if, after adjustment for bone density, endogenous hormones and muscle strength would predict fall-related limb fracture incidence in older community-dwelling women followed-up over 10 years. As a part of a prospective population-based study, 187 75-year-old women were investigated. Serum estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate concentrations were analyzed, and isometric muscle strength and bone mineral density were assessed. Fall-related limb fractures were gathered from patient records. Serum estradiol concentration was a significant predictor of fall-related limb fractures. Women with serum estradiol concentrations less than 0.022 nmol/L had a 3-fold risk (relative risk 3.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-7.36), and women with estradiol concentrations between 0.022 and 0.066 nmol/L doubled the risk (relative risk 2.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-5.19) of fall-related limb fracture compared to the women with estradiol concentrations ()above 0.066 nmol/L. Adjustment for muscle strength and bone mineral density did not materially change the risk estimates. High muscle strength was associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures. This study showed that in 75-year-old women higher serum estradiol concentration and greater muscle strength were independently associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures even after adjustment for bone density. Our results suggest that hormonal status and muscle strength have their own separate mechanisms protecting from fall-related fractures. This finding is of importance in developing preventive strategies, but calls for further study.

  9. Sea level change in Great Britain between 1859 and the present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Philip L.

    2018-04-01

    Short records of sea level measurements by the Ordnance Survey at 31 locations in 1859-1860, together with recent Mean Sea Level (MSL) information from the UK tide gauge network, have been used to estimate the average rates of sea level change around the coast of Great Britain since the mid-19th century. Rates are found to be approximately 1 mm yr-1 in excess of those expected for the present day based on geological information, providing evidence for a climate-change related component of the increase in UK sea level. In turn, the rates of change of MSL for the past 60 yr are estimated to be ˜1 mm yr-1 in excess of the long-term rates since 1859, suggesting an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise between the 19th and 20th/21st centuries. Although the historical records are very short (approximately a fortnight), this exercise in `data archaeology' shows how valuable to research even the shortest records can be, as long as the measurements were made by competent people and the datums of the measurements were fully documented.

  10. Detection of a dynamic topography signal in last interglacial sea-level records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austermann, Jacqueline; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Huybers, Peter; Rovere, Alessio

    2017-07-01

    Estimating minimum ice volume during the last interglacial based on local sea-level indicators requires that these indicators are corrected for processes that alter local sea level relative to the global average. Although glacial isostatic adjustment is generally accounted for, global scale dynamic changes in topography driven by convective mantle flow are generally not considered. We use numerical models of mantle flow to quantify vertical deflections caused by dynamic topography and compare predictions at passive margins to a globally distributed set of last interglacial sea-level markers. The deflections predicted as a result of dynamic topography are significantly correlated with marker elevations (>95% probability) and are consistent with construction and preservation attributes across marker types. We conclude that a dynamic topography signal is present in the elevation of last interglacial sea-level records and that the signal must be accounted for in any effort to determine peak global mean sea level during the last interglacial to within an accuracy of several meters.

  11. Morphological changes within Florida Bay as a result of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    Data from Florida Bay indicates that from 10,000 year BP to 6000 BP, the rate of sea level rise averaged about 10 mm/yr. The rate slowed at the end of this period flooding the shallow shelves surrounding the reef platforms of the western Atlantic. The relative flat South Florida shelf, because of its slight tilt to the southwest is an ideal local to assess the effects of this flooding. From 6000 BP to the present, numerous banks were formed within Florida Bay. A morphological model of bank formation based on the sea level oscillations was constructed from analysis of over 120 cores. These cores record sedimentological changes which are correlated to climatic events. In the central bay, the sediment accumulation was controlled by variations in rate of progressive sea-level rise. The Key West sea-level record shows that sea level has been rising incrementally over the last century. Between 1931 and 1950, sea level rose at a rate of 5 mm/yr. After 1950, it remained stable until 1971, when it again began to rise, but at a rate of 3 mm/yr. On the leeward side of mud banks, these variations resulted in shifts in sediment- accumulation rates, with accretion increasing during rising sea level and decreasing during stable periods. Between late 1970 and early 1972, a sharp jump in sea-level rise occurred that was approximately 10 cm higher than the preceding period. This jump coincided with a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a la Niña (negative ENSO), and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water driven northward into Florida Bay eroded banks along the northern coastline, increased sediment accumulation in the northern lakes, and increased accretion rates on the banks. In addition to the sedimentological variations in the central portion of the bay, there was significant changes along the northern fringe. Around 1950, the northern fringe of the bay morphed from a fresh water environment to a marine environment. As a result, carbonate production

  12. Risk assessment of fall-related occupational accidents in the workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukada, Tsukimi; Sakakibara, Hisataka

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study aimed to examine effective assessment methods of falls in the workplace. Methods: There were 436 employees (305 males and 131 females) of electrical appliance manufacturers included in this study. In 2014, a baseline survey was conducted using the fall scores questionnaire and the self-check risk assessment of falls and other accidents in the workplace (physical function measurement and questionnaire). In 2015, the occurrence of falls in the past year was investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine factors relevant to falls. Results: In total, 62 subjects (14.2%) fell during the year, including those who fell during off-hours. The occurrence of falls during that one year was only associated with having experienced falls during the past year in the baseline survey (odds ratio [OR] 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-9.7). Falls during that year were also related to the inability to walk 1 km continuously (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.1-0.6), tripping sometimes (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.6-9.9), step height differences at home (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3-6.8), and working in the production section (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Measurements of physical functions, such as muscle strength, balance, and agility, were not different between subjects who fell and those who did not. Conclusions: Our results showed that the questionnaire assessing falls during the past year could be useful to assess the risk of falls in the workplace. Annual checks for falls may contribute to fall prevention programs in the workplace. PMID:27725487

  13. Precise mean sea level measurements using the Global Positioning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelecy, Thomas M.; Born, George H.; Parke, Michael E.; Rocken, Christian

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a sea level measurement test conducted off La Jolla, California, in November of 1991. The purpose of this test was to determine accurate sea level measurements using a Global Positioning System (GPS) equipped buoy. These measurements were intended to be used as the sea level component for calibration of the ERS 1 satellite altimeter. Measurements were collected on November 25 and 28 when the ERS 1 satellite overflew the calibration area. Two different types of buoys were used. A waverider design was used on November 25 and a spar design on November 28. This provided the opportunity to examine how dynamic effects of the measurement platform might affect the sea level accuracy. The two buoys were deployed at locations approximately 1.2 km apart and about 15 km west of a reference GPS receiver located on the rooftop of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography. GPS solutions were computed for 45 minutes on each day and used to produce two sea level time series. An estimate of the mean sea level at both locations was computed by subtracting tide gage data collected at the Scripps Pier from the GPS-determined sea level measurements and then filtering out the high-frequency components due to waves and buoy dynamics. In both cases the GPS estimate differed from Rapp's mean altimetric surface by 0.06 m. Thus, the gradient in the GPS measurements matched the gradient in Rapp's surface. These results suggest that accurate sea level can be determined using GPS on widely differing platforms as long as care is taken to determine the height of the GPS antenna phase center above water level. Application areas include measurement of absolute sea level, of temporal variations in sea level, and of sea level gradients (dominantly the geoid). Specific applications would include ocean altimeter calibration, monitoring of sea level in remote regions, and regional experiments requiring spatial and

  14. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. PMID:28533403

  15. Forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level, a Continuous-Time State-Space Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boldrini, Lorenzo

    In this paper we propose a continuous-time, Gaussian, linear, state-space system to model the relation between global mean sea level (GMSL) and the global mean temperature (GMT), with the aim of making long-term projections for the GMSL. We provide a justification for the model specification based......) and the temperature reconstruction from Hansen et al. (2010). We compare the forecasting performance of the proposed specification to the procedures developed in Rahmstorf (2007b) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). Finally, we compute projections for the sea-level rise conditional on the 21st century SRES temperature...

  16. Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

  17. Holocene sea levels of Visakhapatnam shelf, east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, K.M.; Rao, T.C.S.

    The Holocene sea level changes in the shelf areas off Visakhapatnam was studied from sediment distribution pattern and shallow seismic profiling. Morphological features on the shelf indicate a Late Pleistocene regression down to about -130 m below...

  18. Climate Prediction Center Indonesia Sea Level Pressure (1949-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains standardized sea level pressure anomalies over the equatorial Indonesia region...

  19. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    to sea level rise: A South African case study ... developing countries such as South Africa, and for their coastal cities. ... of the wastewater pipeline network is around 8 790 km and .... propensity for regional infrastructure to malfunction under.

  20. Changes in Absolute Sea Level Along U.S. Coasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map shows changes in absolute sea level from 1960 to 2016 based on satellite measurements. Data were adjusted by applying an inverted barometer (air pressure)...

  1. Measurements of sea level off Tikkavanipalem - Coast India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.; Desai, R.G.P.; Peshwe, V.B.; Desa, E.; VijayKumar, K.; Desa, E.S.; Mehra, P.; Nagvekar, S.

    , and meteorological measurements were also made during this one-year period. These measurements have indicated that the sea level along this coast contains contributions from several classes of motions, principally tidal motions and set-up/set-down motions...

  2. Fear of Falling in Women with Fibromyalgia and Its Relation with Number of Falls and Balance Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Collado-Mateo, D.; Gallego-Diaz, J. M.; Adsuar, J. C.; Domínguez-Muñoz, F. J.; Olivares, P. R.; Gusi, N.

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate fear of falling, number of falls, and balance performance in women with FM and to examine the relationship between these variables and others, such as balance performance, quality of life, age, pain, and impact of fibromyalgia. Methods. A total of 240 women participated in this cross-sectional study. Of these, 125 had fibromyalgia. Several variables were assessed: age, fear of falling from 0 to 100, number of falls, body composition, balance performance, lower limb stre...

  3. Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

    2017-12-01

    For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

  4. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  5. Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Randall W.

    2009-07-01

    Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

  6. Effect of glacial-interglacial sea-level changes on the displacement and stress field in the forearc and along the plate interface of subduction zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Li

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Combined seismological, space-geodetic and numerical studies have shown that the seismicity at subduction zones may be modulated by tides and glacier fluctuations on timescales of 1–100 a, because these changes in loads on Earth's surface are able to alter the stress field in the upper plate and along the plate interface. Here we use a two-dimensional finite-element model of a subduction zone to investigate how glacial-interglacial sea-level changes affect the forearc region and the plate interface. The model results show that a sea-level fall by 125 m over 100 ka causes up to 0.7 m of vertical displacement, with the maximum uplift occurring between the trench and the coast. The uplift signal induced by the sea-level fall decreases to zero ~20 km landward of the coastline. A subsequent sea-level rise by 125 m over 20 ka causes subsidence, which is again most pronounced in the submarine part of the forearc. The sea-level changes cause horizontal displacements of up to 0.12 m, which are directed seaward during sea-level fall and landward during sea-level rise. With respect to the stress field, the sea-level changes lead to variations in the vertical stress and the shear stress of up to 1.23 MPa and 0.4 MPa, respectively. The shear stress variations are highest beneath the coast, i.e. in the area where the sea-level changes cause the strongest flexure. The resulting Coulomb stress changes on the plate interface are of the order of 0.2–0.5 MPa and indicate that earthquakes are promoted during sea-level fall and delayed during sea-level rise. Our findings imply that eustatic sea-level changes during glacial-interglacial periods may have induced displacements and stress changes that were large enough to affect the seismic cycle of subduction thrusts.

  7. Effect of square stepping exercise for older adults to prevent fall and injury related to fall: systematic review and meta-analysis of current evidences

    OpenAIRE

    Fisseha, Berihu; Janakiraman, Balamurugan; Yitayeh, Asmare; Ravichandran, Hariharasudhan

    2017-01-01

    Falls and fall related injuries become an emerging health problem among older adults. As a result a review of the recent evidences is needed to design a prevention strategy. The aim of this review was to determine the effect of square stepping exercise (SSE) for fall down injury among older adults compared with walking training or other exercises. An electronic database search for relevant randomized control trials published in English from 2005 to 2016 was conducted. Articles with outcome me...

  8. Coherence between interannual variability of sea level with some surface met-ocean parameters at Cochin, southwest coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.

    for Cochin (southwest coast of India) using long term time series data. Among the parameters, SST, relative density and sea level showed statistically significant long term trends. All the parameters, when smoothed, showed statistically significant...

  9. Head Trauma from Falling Increases Subsequent Emergency Department Visits More Than Other Fall-Related Injuries in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southerland, Lauren T; Stephens, Julie A; Robinson, Shari; Falk, James; Phieffer, Laura; Rosenthal, Joseph A; Caterino, Jeffrey M

    2016-04-01

    To determine whether fall-related injuries affect return to the ED after the initial visit. Retrospective chart review. Academic Level 1 trauma center ED. Individuals aged 65 and older evaluated for a fall from standing height or less and discharged (N = 263, average age 77, 70% female). After institutional review board approval, electronic medical record data were queried. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with risk of returning to the ED within 90 days. Injuries included fractures (45%, n = 117); head trauma (22%, n = 58); abrasions, lacerations, or contusions (34%, n = 88); and none (22%, n = 57). Emergency care was frequently required, with 13 (5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.3-7.6%) returning within 72 hours, 35 (13%, 95% CI = 9.2-17%] within 30 days, and 57 (22%, 95% CI = 17-27%) within 90 days. Univariately, the odds of returning to the ED within 90 days was more than two times as high for those with head trauma as for those without (odds ratio = 2.66). This remained significant in the multivariable model, which controlled for Charlson Comorbidity Index, fractures, soft tissue injuries, and ED observation unit use. More than one-third of older adults with minor head trauma from a fall will need to return to the ED in the following 90 days. These individuals should receive close attention from primary care providers. The link between minor head trauma and ED recidivism is a new finding. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  10. Thresholds of sea-level rise rate and sea-level acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, W.; Biber, P.; Bethel, M.

    2017-12-01

    Feedback among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea-level rise (SLR). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold help address the key challenge in ecology - nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, and promote communication between ecologists and policy makers. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to the enhanced anthropogenic forces. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay, MS, a micro-tidal estuary with limited upland freshwater and sediment input in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The new SLR acceleration rate threshold complements the threshold of SLR rate and can help explain the temporal lag before the rapid decline of wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. The derived SLR rate thresholds range from 7.3 mm/yr to 11.9 mm/yr. The thresholds of SLR acceleration rate are 3.02×10-4 m/yr2 and 9.62×10-5 m/yr2 for 2050 and 2100 respectively. Based on the thresholds developed, predicted SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), and beyond the very likely range under a low warming scenario (RCP2.6 or 3), highlighting the need to avoid the high warming scenario in the future if these marshes are to be preserved.

  11. Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Ramsey, C Bronk; Cheng, H; Edwards, R L; Florindo, F; Heslop, D; Marra, F; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-09-25

    Research on global ice-volume changes during Pleistocene glacial cycles is hindered by a lack of detailed sea-level records for time intervals older than the last interglacial. Here we present the first robustly dated, continuous and highly resolved records of Red Sea sea level and rates of sea-level change over the last 500,000 years, based on tight synchronization to an Asian monsoon record. We observe maximum 'natural' (pre-anthropogenic forcing) sea-level rise rates below 2 m per century following periods with up to twice present-day ice volumes, and substantially higher rise rates for greater ice volumes. We also find that maximum sea-level rise rates were attained within 2 kyr of the onset of deglaciations, for 85% of such events. Finally, multivariate regressions of orbital parameters, sea-level and monsoon records suggest that major meltwater pulses account for millennial-scale variability and insolation-lagged responses in Asian monsoon records.

  12. Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

  13. Dietary patterns associated with fall-related fracture in elderly Japanese: a population based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monma, Yasutake; Niu, Kaijun; Iwasaki, Koh; Tomita, Naoki; Nakaya, Naoki; Hozawa, Atsushi; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Takayama, Shin; Seki, Takashi; Takeda, Takashi; Yaegashi, Nobuo; Ebihara, Satoru; Arai, Hiroyuki; Nagatomi, Ryoichi; Tsuji, Ichiro

    2010-06-01

    Diet is considered an important factor for bone health, but is composed of a wide variety of foods containing complex combinations of nutrients. Therefore we investigated the relationship between dietary patterns and fall-related fractures in the elderly. We designed a population-based prospective survey of 1178 elderly people in Japan in 2002. Dietary intake was assessed with a 75-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), from which dietary patterns were created by factor analysis from 27 food groups. The frequency of fall-related fracture was investigated based on insurance claim records from 2002 until 2006. The relationship between the incidence of fall-related fracture and modifiable factors, including dietary patterns, were examined. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to examine the relationships between dietary patterns and incidence of fall-related fracture with adjustment for age, gender, Body Mass Index (BMI) and energy intake. Among 877 participants who agreed to a 4 year follow-up, 28 suffered from a fall-related fracture. Three dietary patterns were identified: mainly vegetable, mainly meat and mainly traditional Japanese. The moderately confirmed (see statistical methods) groups with a Meat pattern showed a reduced risk of fall-related fracture (Hazard ratio = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.13 - 0.94) after adjustment for age, gender, BMI and energy intake. The Vegetable pattern showed a significant risk increase (Hazard ratio = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.03 - 6.90) after adjustment for age, gender and BMI. The Traditional Japanese pattern had no relationship to the risk of fall-related fracture. The results of this study have the potential to reduce fall-related fracture risk in elderly Japanese. The results should be interpreted in light of the overall low meat intake of the Japanese population.

  14. Dietary patterns associated with fall-related fracture in elderly Japanese: a population based prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaegashi Nobuo

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diet is considered an important factor for bone health, but is composed of a wide variety of foods containing complex combinations of nutrients. Therefore we investigated the relationship between dietary patterns and fall-related fractures in the elderly. Methods We designed a population-based prospective survey of 1178 elderly people in Japan in 2002. Dietary intake was assessed with a 75-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ, from which dietary patterns were created by factor analysis from 27 food groups. The frequency of fall-related fracture was investigated based on insurance claim records from 2002 until 2006. The relationship between the incidence of fall-related fracture and modifiable factors, including dietary patterns, were examined. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to examine the relationships between dietary patterns and incidence of fall-related fracture with adjustment for age, gender, Body Mass Index (BMI and energy intake. Results Among 877 participants who agreed to a 4 year follow-up, 28 suffered from a fall-related fracture. Three dietary patterns were identified: mainly vegetable, mainly meat and mainly traditional Japanese. The moderately confirmed (see statistical methods groups with a Meat pattern showed a reduced risk of fall-related fracture (Hazard ratio = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.13 - 0.94 after adjustment for age, gender, BMI and energy intake. The Vegetable pattern showed a significant risk increase (Hazard ratio = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.03 - 6.90 after adjustment for age, gender and BMI. The Traditional Japanese pattern had no relationship to the risk of fall-related fracture. Conclusions The results of this study have the potential to reduce fall-related fracture risk in elderly Japanese. The results should be interpreted in light of the overall low meat intake of the Japanese population.

  15. Brest sea level record: a time series construction back to the early eighteenth century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wöppelmann, Guy; Pouvreau, Nicolas; Simon, Bernard

    2006-12-01

    The completeness and the accuracy of the Brest sea level time series dating from 1807 make it suitable for long-term sea level trend studies. New data sets were recently discovered in the form of handwritten tabulations, including several decades of the eighteenth century. Sea level observations have been made in Brest since 1679. This paper presents the historical data sets which have been assembled so far. These data sets span approximately 300 years and together constitute the longest, near-continuous set of sea level information in France. However, an important question arises: Can we relate the past and the present-day records? We partially provide an answer to this question by analysing the documents of several historical libraries with the tidal data using a ‘data archaeology’ approach advocated by Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett 26:1589 1592, 1999b). A second question arises concerning the accuracy of such records. Careful editing was undertaken by examining the residuals between tidal predictions and observations. It proved useful to remove the worst effects of timing errors, in particular the sundial correction to be applied prior to August 1, 1714. A refined correction based on sundial literature [Savoie, La gnomique, Editions Les Belles Lettres, Paris, 2001] is proposed, which eliminates the systematic offsets seen in the discrepancies in timing of the sea level measurements. The tidal analysis has also shown that shallow-water tidal harmonics at Brest causes a systematic difference of 0.023 m between mean sea level (MSL) and mean tide level (MTL). Thus, MTL should not be mixed with the time series of MSL because of this systematic offset. The study of the trends in MTL and MSL however indicates that MTL can be used as a proxy for MSL. Three linear trend periods are distinguished in the Brest MTL time series over the period 1807 2004. Our results support the recent findings of Holgate and Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett) of an enhanced coastal sea level

  16. Long-term cyclicities in Phanerozoic sea-level sedimentary record and their potential drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulila, Slah; Laskar, Jacques; Haq, Bilal U.; Galbrun, Bruno; Hara, Nathan

    2018-06-01

    Cyclic sedimentation has varied at several timescales and this variability has been geologically well documented at Milankovitch timescales, controlled in part by climatically (insolation) driven sea-level changes. At the longer (tens of Myr) timescales connection between astronomical parameters and sedimentation via cyclic solar-system motions within the Milky Way has also been proposed, but this hypothesis remains controversial because of the lack of long geological records. In addition, the absence of a meaningful physical mechanism that could explain the connection between climate and astronomy at these longer timescales led to the more plausible explanation of plate motions as the main driver of climate and sedimentation through changes in ocean and continent mass distribution on Earth. Here we statistically show a prominent and persistent 36 Myr sedimentary cyclicity superimposed on two megacycles ( 250 Myr) in a relatively well-constrained sea-level (SL) record of the past 542 Myr (Phanerozoic eon). We also show two other significant 9.3 and 91 Myr periodicities, but with lower amplitudes. The 9.3 Myr cyclicity was previously attributed to long-period Milankovitch band based on the Cenozoic record. However, the 91 Myr cyclicity has never been observed before in the geologic record. The 250 Myr cyclicity was attributed to the Wilson tectonic (supercontinent) cycle. The 36 Myr periodicity, also detected for the first time in SL record, has previously been ascribed either to tectonics or to astronomical cyclicity. Given the possible link between amplitudes of the 36 and 250 Myr cyclicities in SL record and the potential that these periodicities fall into the frequency band of solar system motions, we suggest an astronomical origin, and model these periodicities as originating from the path of the solar system in the Milky Way as vertical and radial periods that modulate the flux of cosmic rays on Earth. Our finding of the 36 Myr SL cyclicity lends credibility

  17. Trends in fall-related injuries among older adults treated in emergency departments in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orces, Carlos H; Alamgir, Hasanat

    2014-12-01

    To examine national trends in fall-related injuries among older adults treated in emergency departments (ED) and project these injuries until the year 2030. The Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System was used to generate data on fall-related injuries treated in ED. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine the average annual change in injury rates over time. Fall-related injury and hospitalisation rates increased on average by 2% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.7%) and by 4% (95% CI 2.9% to 5.0%) per year, respectively. Assuming the increase in fall-related injury rates remains unchanged, the number of fall-related injuries may increase to 5.7 million by the year 2030. Fall-related injuries among older adults treated in ED increased in the USA during the study period. Moreover, a marked increase in the number of these injuries may occur over the next decades. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  18. Prevalence and Determinants of Fall-Related Injuries among Older Adults in Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos H. Orces

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To estimate the prevalence and determinants of fall-related injuries in the previous year among adults aged 60 years or older in Ecuador. Methods. The prevalence of fall-related injuries was estimated using cross-sectional data from the first national survey of Health, Wellbeing, and Aging study. Logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between participants’ demographic characteristics and fall-related injuries. Results. Of 5,227 participants with a mean age of 72.6 years, 11.4% (95% CI, 10.3%–12.7% reported a fall-related injury in Ecuador, representing an estimated 136,000 adults aged 60 years or older. Fall-related injuries were more frequently reported among older adults residing in the most urbanized and populated provinces of the country. After controlling for potential confounders, self-reported race as Indigenous (OR 2.2; 95% CI, 2.11–2.31, drinking alcohol regularly (OR 2.54; 95% CI, 2.46–2.63, subjects with greater number of comorbid conditions (OR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.97–2.08, and urinary incontinence (OR 1.83; 95% CI, 1.79–1.87 were factors independently associated with increased odds of sustaining fall-related injuries. Conclusions. Fall-related injuries represent a considerable burden for older adults in Ecuador. The present findings may assist public health authorities to implement fall prevention programs among subjects at higher risk for this type of injury.

  19. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

    2015-07-10

    Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  20. Sea Levels Online: Sea Level Variations of the United States Derived from National Water Level Observation Network Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Water level records are a combination of the fluctuations of the ocean and the vertical land motion at the location of the station. Monthly mean sea level (MSL)...

  1. Potential of sea level rise impact on South China Sea: a preliminary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of the sea level rise was involved the existence of sea water intrusion and coastal erosion phenomenon in the coastal of Terengganu. This study aim to determine fluctuation of high and low tides of the South China Sea in their relation to water quality value of Marang and Paka Rivers as well as from wells ...

  2. Modelling Morphological Response of Large Tidal Inlet Systems to Sea Level Rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dissanayake, P.K.

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation qualitatively investigates the morphodynamic response of a large inlet system to IPCC projected relative sea level rise (RSLR). Adopted numerical approach (Delft3D) used a highly schematised model domain analogous to the Ameland inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Predicted inlet

  3. Late quaternary sea level changes of Gabes coastal plain and shelf ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    site to study coastal changes at time scale, rang- ing from ... regional shoreline during MIS 5c (100 ka) and MIS .... Remote sensing drainage network anal- ... Around Gabes city, the Pleistocene deposits are ... tems are well developed and fluvial discharges are ..... relative sea-level rise: A case study from trab el makhadha.

  4. Climate And Sea Level: It's In Our Hands Now

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Bell, R. E.; Ryan, W. B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in sea level are measurable on both a local and a global scale providing an accessible way to connect climate to education, yet engaging teachers and students with the complex science that is behind the change in sea level can be a challenge. Deciding how much should be included and just how it should be introduced in any single classroom subject area can be an obstacle for a teacher. The Sea Level Rise Polar Explorer App developed through the PoLAR CCEP grant offers a guided tour through the many layers of science that impact sea level rise. This map-based data-rich app is framed around a series of questions that move the user through map layers with just the level of complexity they chose to explore. For a quick look teachers and students can review a 3 or 4 sentence introduction on how the given map links to sea level and then launch straight into the interactive touchable map. For a little more in depth look they can listen to (or read) a one-minute recorded background on the data displayed in the map prior to launching in. For those who want more in depth understanding they can click to a one page background piece on the topic with links to further visualizations, videos and data. Regardless of the level of complexity selected each map is composed of clickable data allowing the user to fully explore the science. The different options for diving in allow teachers to differentiate the learning for either the subject being taught or the user level of the student group. The map layers also include a range of complexities. Basic questions like "What is sea level?" talk about shorelines, past sea levels and elevations beneath the sea. Questions like "Why does sea level change?" includes slightly more complex issues like the role of ocean temperature, and how that differs from ocean heat content. And what is the role of the warming atmosphere in sea level change? Questions about "What about sea level in the past?" can bring challenges for students who have

  5. Erosion of continental margins in the Western Mediterranean due to sea-level stagnancy during the Messinian Salinity Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Just, Janna; Hübscher, Christian; Betzler, Christian; Lüdmann, Thomas; Reicherter, Klaus

    2011-02-01

    High-resolution multi-channel seismic data from continental slopes with minor sediment input off southwest Mallorca Island, the Bay of Oran (Algeria) and the Alboran Ridge reveal evidence that the Messinian erosional surface is terraced at an almost constant depth interval between 320 and 380 m below present-day sea level. It is proposed that these several hundred- to 2,000-m-wide terraces were eroded contemporaneously and essentially at the same depth. Present-day differences in these depths result from subsidence or uplift in the individual realms. The terraces are thought to have evolved during one or multiple periods of sea-level stagnancy in the Western Mediterranean Basin. According to several published scenarios, a single or multiple periods of relative sea-level stillstand occurred during the Messinian desiccation event, generally known as the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Some authors suggest that the stagnancy started during the refilling phase of the Mediterranean basins. When the rising sea level reached the height of the Sicily Sill, the water spilled over this swell into the eastern basin. The stagnancy persisted until sea level in the eastern basin caught up with the western Mediterranean water level. Other authors assigned periods of sea-level stagnancy to drawdown phases, when inflowing waters from the Atlantic kept the western sea level constant at the depth of the Sicily Sill. Our findings corroborate all those Messinian sea-level reconstructions, forwarding that a single or multiple sea-level stagnancies at the depth of the Sicily Sill lasted long enough to significantly erode the upper slope. Our data also have implications for the ongoing debate of the palaeo-depth of the Sicily Sill. Since the Mallorcan plateau experienced the least vertical movement, the observed terrace depth of 380 m there is inferred to be close to the Messinian depth of this swell.

  6. Interannual sea level variability in the Pearl River Estuary and its response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Mao, Xian-zhong; Bi, Hongsheng; Yin, Peng

    2018-03-01

    The South China coast, especially the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) region, is prosperous and densely populated, but vulnerable to sea level changes. Sea level anomalies (SLA) during 1954-2012 from tide gauge station data and regional SLAs during 1993-2012 from satellite altimetry are analyzed and compare to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that sea level declines during El Niño events and rises during La Niña. Sea level in the PRE responds to ENSO with 3-month lag. The ENSO can cause sea level in the PRE to fluctuate from -8.70 to 8.11 cm. Sea level cycles of 3 and 5 years are related to ENSO. The ENSO mechanism affecting sea level in the PRE was analyzed by identifying dominant regional and local forces. Weak/strong SLAs in most El Niño/La Niña events may be attributed to less/more seawater transport driven by anomalously weak/strong north winds and local anomalously high/low sea level pressure. Wind-driven coastal current is the predominant factor. It generated coastal seawater volume transport along a 160 km wide cross section to decrease by 21.07% in a typical El Niño period (January 2010) and increase by 44.03% in a typical La Niña period (January 2011) as compared to an ENSO neutral situation (January 2013). Results of sea level rise and its potential mechanism provide insight for disaster protection during extreme El Niño/La Niña events.

  7. Geochronology and subsurface stratigraphy of Pukapuka and Rakahanga atolls, Cook Islands: Late Quaternary reef growth and sea level history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, S.C.; Hein, J.R.; Hausmann, R.; Radtke, U.

    1992-01-01

    Eustatic sea-level cycles superposed on thermal subsidence of an atoll produce layers of high sea-level reefs separated by erosional unconformities. Coral samples from these reefs from cores drilled to 50 m beneath the lagoons of Pukapuka and Rakahanga atolls, northern Cook Islands give electron spin resonance (ESR) and U-series ages ranging from the Holocene to 600,000 yr B.P. Subgroups of these ages and the stratigraphic position of their bounding unconformities define at least 5 periods of reef growth and high sea-level (0-9000 yr B.P., 125,000-180,000 yr B.P., 180,000-230,000 yr B.P., 300,000-460,000 yr B.P., 460,000-650,000 yr B.P.). Only two ages fall within error of the last interglacial high sea-level stand (???125,000-135,000 yr B.P.). This paucity of ages may result from extensive erosion of the last intergracial reef. In addition, post-depositional isotope exchange may have altered the time ages of three coral samples to apparent ages that fall within glacial stage 6. For the record to be preserved, vertical accretion during rising sea-level must compensate for surface lowering from erosion during sea-level lowstands and subsidence of the atoll; erosion rates (6-63 cm/1000 yr) can therefore be calculated from reef accretion rates (100-400 cm/1000 yr), subsidence rates (2-6 cm/1000 yr), and the duration of island submergence (8-15% of the last 600,000 yr). The stratigraphy of coral ages indicates island subsidence rates of 4.5 ?? 2.8 cm/1000 yr for both islands. A model of reef growth and erosion based on the stratigraphy of the Cook Islands atolls suggests average subsidence and erosion rates of between 3-6 and 15-20 cm/1000 yr, respectively. ?? 1992.

  8. A decreasing trend in fall-related hip fracture incidence in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, E; Clapperton, A

    2013-01-01

    In Victoria, Australia, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased significantly by 25% over the period 1998/1999-2008/2009. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people. The study aim was to investigate trends in the incidence of fall-related and hip fracture hospitalisations among Victorians aged 65 years and older overall and by age, gender, country of birth, socio-economic status (SES) and location of the event (home, residential care institution, etc.) over the 11-year period 1998/1999 to 2008/2009. Annual counts and age-standardised rates for fall-related hospitalisations among people aged 65 years and older were estimated using Victorian hospital admissions data. The statistical significance of changes in trends over time were analysed using a log-linear regression model of the rate data assuming a Poisson distribution of cases. Although the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations increased significantly by 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9% to 18%) in Victoria, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased from 600/100,000 in 1998/1999 to 467/100,000 in 2008/2009 - an estimated overall reduction of 25% (95% CI, -29% to -22%). By contrast, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations for fractures at other body sites either increased significantly or showed no significant change. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in both males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in both Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people but not in people living in residential care facilities. Despite the downward trend in the age-standardised incidence of

  9. A short regression during the last interglacial (5e) sea level high-stand, along the reef coast of Egypt: a possible evidence for high-frequency glacio-eustatic variations during pleistocene times?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plaziat, J.C.; Orszag-sperber, F.; Baltzer, F.; Purser, B.H.; Reyss, J.L.; Choukri, A.

    1998-01-01

    In the most stable localities of the NW Red Sea-Gulf of Suez, the Last Interglacial shore deposits have been dated (α Th/U) and give evidence of a two-stages 5.5 (5e) + 8/5 m transgression subdivided by a 10 m (at least) relative sea-level fall. The respective ages of the initial reef and beach unit and about 3 m lower bay-lagoon-gypsum salina deposits are not discriminable with the available dating method. This high-frequency oscillation during 5.5 high stand would be tentatively interpreted as a glacio-eustatic sea-level coinciding with the 5.52 event of δ 18 O isotopic terminology. (authors)

  10. Incidence of fall-related injuries in Iran: A population-based nationwide study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saadat, Soheil; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Ekhtiari, Yalda Soleiman; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Motevalian, Abbas; Amin-Esmaeili, Masoumeh; Sharifi, Vandad; Hajebi, Ahmad; Radgoodarzi, Reza; Hefazi, Mitra; Eslami, Vahid; Karimi, Hasti; Mohammad, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa

    2016-07-01

    Fall-related injuries are considered to be a leading cause of morbidity and disability worldwide. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of fall-related injuries and its determinants in Iran. A cross-sectional household survey of a representative sample of 15-64 years old Iranians was carried out in 2011. A three-stage cluster sampling design was used. Total of 1525 clusters were randomly selected. Six households in each cluster were randomly selected, and one member of each household was interviewed. Data on the demographics and history of fall-related injury were obtained using the previously validated and reliability tested Short Form Injury Questionnaire 7 (SFIQ7). In all, 7886 subjects responded to the survey. The incidence rate of all fall-related injuries was 59 (95%CI: 45-72) per 1000 person-year. The incidence rate of First Aid Fall-Related Injuries (FAFRIs) and Medical Attended Fall-Related Injuries (MAFRIs) were 30±5 and 28±12, respectively. Homes were the most common place of falls (52.5%). For all and MAFRIs, the most common activity leading to fall injury was walking (37.8% and 47.6%, respectively) whereas for FAFRIs was playing (31.9%). For all and FAFRIs, the most common description was as follows: upper limb as the injured organ (52.0% and 61.2%, respectively) and superficial wound as the most prevalent type of injury (39.0% and 61.8%, respectively). However, for MAFRIs, lower limb injuries (52.9%) and fracture (43.6%) were more pronounced. Risk factors for MAFRI were as follows: paid work activity (OR: 3.11; 95%CI: 2.07-4.67), playing (OR: 14.64; 95%CI: 6.34-33.80), walking (OR: 57.09; 95%CI: 28.95-112.59), driving (OR: 2.86; 95%CI: 1.23-6.63), and recreation activities (OR: 44.11; 95%CI: 14.04-138.54). Higher age and education were the other risk factors for MAFRI, as well as residing in rural areas. This study revealed considerable incidence of fall injuries in Iranian population especially in rural regions who need access to

  11. Grain-size based sea-level reconstruction in the south Bohai Sea during the past 135 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Chen, Yanping

    2013-04-01

    Future anthropogenic sea-level rise and its impact on coastal regions is an important issue facing human civilizations. Due to the short nature of the instrumental record of sea-level change, development of proxies for sea-level change prior to the advent of instrumental records is essential to reconstruct long-term background sea-level changes on local, regional and global scales. Two of the most widely used approaches for past sea-level changes are: (1) exploitation of dated geomorphologic features such as coastal sands (e.g. Mauz and Hassler, 2000), salt marsh (e.g. Madsen et al., 2007), terraces (e.g. Chappell et al., 1996), and other coastal sediments (e.g. Zong et al., 2003); and (2) sea-level transfer functions based on faunal assemblages such as testate amoebae (e.g. Charman et al., 2002), foraminifera (e.g. Chappell and Shackleton, 1986; Horton, 1997), and diatoms (e.g. Horton et al., 2006). While a variety of methods has been developed to reconstruct palaeo-changes in sea level, many regions, including the Bohai Sea, China, still lack detailed relative sea-level curves extending back to the Pleistocene (Yi et al., 2012). For example, coral terraces are absent in the Bohai Sea, and the poor preservation of faunal assemblages makes development of a transfer function for a relative sea-level reconstruction unfeasible. In contrast, frequent alternations between transgression and regression has presumably imprinted sea-level change on the grain size distribution of Bohai Sea sediments, which varies from medium silt to coarse sand during the late Quaternary (IOCAS, 1985). Advantages of grainsize-based relative sea-level transfer function approaches are that they require smaller sample sizes, allowing for replication, faster measurement and higher spatial or temporal resolution at a fraction of the cost of detail micro-palaeontological analysis (Yi et al., 2012). Here, we employ numerical methods to partition sediment grain size using a combined database of

  12. Epidemiology, morbidity and mortality from fall-related injuries in the United Arab Emirates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Unintentional falls are a major cause of morbidity and mortality with a significant burden on victims, families, and societies. We aimed to study the mechanism, risk factors, and outcome of hospitalized patients with fall-related injuries in order to propose preventive measures. Methods Fall-related injured patients who were admitted to Al Ain Hospital, United Arab Emirates (UAE) for more than 24 hours or who died after arrival to the hospital, were studied over 3 years. Demography, location and time of injury, affected body regions, hospital and ICU stay, and outcome were analyzed. Results 882 patients were studied, 82% were males, and 22% were less than 19 years old. Majority were from the Indian subcontinent. The most common location for fall injuries was work. Patients injured at work were older and mainly non-UAE nationals (p < 0.0001) when compared with those injured at home. Patients falling from height, when compared with those falling from same level, were older (p = 0.017), had more males (p < 0.001), were mainly from the Indian subcontinent (p < 0.001), had higher ISS (p = 0.011) and longer total hospital stay (p < 0.001). Conclusions Falls are a major health problem in the UAE. Falls at work can be prevented by safety education tailored to different ethnic groups, and proper legislation and regulation. Environmental modification using evidence-based architectural design may prevent falls among vulnerable risk groups. PMID:25178823

  13. A study on Sea Level Change for Coast of Korean Peninsular from Global Warming and Its Influences I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, K.W.; Kim, J.H. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    cm with a median value of 48cm. The projected range of the sea level rise is 2.2{approx} 4.4 times higher than that of 20th century. The ocean thermal expansion leads the 21st century sea level rise. The melting of glacier also gives considerable contribution to the 21st sea level rise. The regional distribution of future sea level change will be quite complex because of the regional distribution of thermal expansion, heat transport into ocean interiors, ocean circulation changes by the change of density structure with temperature and salinity changes, horizontal heat transport changes due to the ocean circulation changes, wind field changes to climate change, etc. It is projected that the regional variation will be large compared to the global mean value. The state-of-the-art climate model predictions on the regional distribution of the 21st sea level change show little similarity between models except the Arctic Ocean and Antarctic Ocean. This implies the confidence of current climate model is low in the prediction of the regional distribution of sea level change. In order to investigate the sea level change on the neighboring seas of Korea, the sea level trends of the 65 PSMSL(Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) tide-station data located at the Korea, Japan, and China are calculated by a simple linear regression after a post-glacial rebound correction(Peltier, 2001). The mean sea level change is 1.63 mm/yr +2.15 mm/yr, which is in the rage of the IPCC assessment. The analysis of the 23 station at Korea reveals that the East Sea is in the low trend of 0.57 mm/yr than those of the South Sea(3.13mm/yr) and the West Sea(2.64 mm/yr) with an overall mean value of 2.31 mm/yr. However, it is quite questionable that the sea level trends with the tide gauge data on the neighboring seas of Korea relate to global warming because of the relatively short observation period and large spatial variability. In the satellite altimeter data (Topex/Poseidon and ERS), the sea level

  14. The efficacy of fall-risk-increasing drug (FRID) withdrawal for the prevention of falls and fall-related complications: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Justin Yusen; Holbrook, Anne

    2017-02-20

    Despite limited evidence of effectiveness, withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction) of high risk medications known as "fall-risk increasing drugs" (FRIDs) is typically conducted as a fall prevention strategy based on presumptive benefit. Our objective is to determine the efficacy of fall-risk increasing drugs (FRIDs) withdrawal on the prevention of falls and fall-related complications. We will search for all published and unpublished randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of FRID withdrawal compared to usual care on the rate of falls, incidence of falls, fall-related injuries, fall-related fractures, fall-related hospitalizations, or adverse effects related to the intervention in adults aged 65 years or older. Electronic database searches will be conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and CINAHL. A grey literature search will be conducted including clinical trial registries and conference proceedings and abstracts. Two reviewers will independently perform in duplicate citation screening, full-text review, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. Conflicts will be resolved through team discussion or by a third reviewer if no consensus can be reached. The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria will be used to independently rate overall confidence in effect estimates for each outcome. Results will be synthesized descriptively, and a random effects meta-analysis will be conducted for each outcome if studies are deemed similar methodologically, clinically, and statistically. We will attempt to determine whether a FRID withdrawal strategy alone is effective at preventing falls in older adults. Our results will be used to optimize and focus fall prevention strategies and initiatives internationally with a goal of improving the health of older adults. PROSPERO CRD42016040203.

  15. The efficacy of fall-risk-increasing drug (FRID withdrawal for the prevention of falls and fall-related complications: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Yusen Lee

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite limited evidence of effectiveness, withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction of high risk medications known as “fall-risk increasing drugs” (FRIDs is typically conducted as a fall prevention strategy based on presumptive benefit. Our objective is to determine the efficacy of fall-risk increasing drugs (FRIDs withdrawal on the prevention of falls and fall-related complications. Methods/design We will search for all published and unpublished randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of FRID withdrawal compared to usual care on the rate of falls, incidence of falls, fall-related injuries, fall-related fractures, fall-related hospitalizations, or adverse effects related to the intervention in adults aged 65 years or older. Electronic database searches will be conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, and CINAHL. A grey literature search will be conducted including clinical trial registries and conference proceedings and abstracts. Two reviewers will independently perform in duplicate citation screening, full-text review, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. Conflicts will be resolved through team discussion or by a third reviewer if no consensus can be reached. The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE criteria will be used to independently rate overall confidence in effect estimates for each outcome. Results will be synthesized descriptively, and a random effects meta-analysis will be conducted for each outcome if studies are deemed similar methodologically, clinically, and statistically. Discussion We will attempt to determine whether a FRID withdrawal strategy alone is effective at preventing falls in older adults. Our results will be used to optimize and focus fall prevention strategies and initiatives internationally with a goal of improving the health of older adults. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD

  16. Neighborhood Factors and Fall-Related Injuries among Older Adults Seen by Emergency Medical Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungmin Lee

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Falls are serious health problems among older adults, and are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries treated by emergency medical services (EMS. Although considerable research has examined the risk factors of falls at the individual level, relatively few studies have addressed the risk factors at the neighborhood level. This study examines the characteristics of neighborhood environments associated with fall injuries reported to EMS providers. A total of 13,163 EMS records from 2011 to 2014 involving adults aged 65 and older in the city of San Antonio (TX, USA were analyzed at the census tract level (n = 264. Negative binomial regression was used to identify significant census tract-based neighborhood environmental variables associated with the count of fall injuries in each census tract. Adjusting for exposure variable and the size of the census tract, neighborhoods with higher residential stability, captured as the percent of those who lived in the same house as the previous year were associated with decreased count of fall injuries. Neighborhoods with higher residential density and having a higher vacancy rate were associated with increased count of fall injuries. The study highlights the importance of stable and safe neighborhoods in reducing fall risks among older adults, which should be considered a prerequisite for promoting age-friendly environments.

  17. Neighborhood Factors and Fall-Related Injuries among Older Adults Seen by Emergency Medical Service Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sungmin; Lee, Chanam; Rodiek, Susan

    2017-02-08

    Falls are serious health problems among older adults, and are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries treated by emergency medical services (EMS). Although considerable research has examined the risk factors of falls at the individual level, relatively few studies have addressed the risk factors at the neighborhood level. This study examines the characteristics of neighborhood environments associated with fall injuries reported to EMS providers. A total of 13,163 EMS records from 2011 to 2014 involving adults aged 65 and older in the city of San Antonio (TX, USA) were analyzed at the census tract level (n = 264). Negative binomial regression was used to identify significant census tract-based neighborhood environmental variables associated with the count of fall injuries in each census tract. Adjusting for exposure variable and the size of the census tract, neighborhoods with higher residential stability, captured as the percent of those who lived in the same house as the previous year were associated with decreased count of fall injuries. Neighborhoods with higher residential density and having a higher vacancy rate were associated with increased count of fall injuries. The study highlights the importance of stable and safe neighborhoods in reducing fall risks among older adults, which should be considered a prerequisite for promoting age-friendly environments.

  18. Falls relate to vitamin D and parathyroid hormone in an Australian nursing home and hostel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, M S; Wark, J D; Scherer, S C; Walton, S L; Chick, P; Di Carlantonio, M; Zajac, J D; Flicker, L

    1999-10-01

    To determine whether falling relates to serum levels of vitamin D and parathyroid hormone. A cross-sectional study with retrospective analysis. An aged-care institution in Melbourne Australia. Ambulant nursing home and hostel residents (n = 83). Frequency of falling, frequency of going outdoors, use of cane or walker, age, sex, weight, type of accommodation, and duration of residence. Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, and parathyroid hormone (PTH). Plasma concentrations of albumin, calcium, phosphate, and creatinine. Use of furosemide or non-benzodiazepine anticonvulsants. Median age of residents was 84 years. The cohort was vitamin D deficient with a median (interquartile range) 25-hydroxyvitamin D level of 27 (18-37) nmol/L (one-third the reference range median), P falling, higher serum PTH remained independently associated with falling, with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for falling of 5.6 (1.7-18.5) per unit of the natural logarithm of serum PTH. Other terms in the regression were hostel accommodation, odds ratio .04 (.01-.25), and ability to walk without aids, odds ratio .07 (.01-.37). In ambulant nursing home and hostel residents, residents who fall have lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and higher serum parathyroid hormone levels than other residents. The association between falling and serum PTH persists after adjustment for other variables.

  19. The fall of the Albanian - Chinese Relations 1971-1978

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Gjon Boriçi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Albanian - Chinese relations in the years of the Cold War were thrilling as much as dramatic. The age of their flourish in the '60-ies, unfortunately did not last for long. The Albanian sponsorship that China be admitted in the UN with full rights was a test that Enver Hoxha should exploit for the good of the Albanian people. It was a historic and unrepeated opportunity for little Albania to escape the political and economic impasse since the breakup of relations with the Soviet Union in 1961. The incompetence of the Albanian leadership to understand the trends of the age would mark the following political failure of Albania and would influent in the total isolation of the country. It's not difficult to understand that Albania had historic opportunities to join the Western side but chose to align with the Eastern bloc. The beginnings are with sensational approach with Tito's Yugoslavia. After that the Albanian political leadership kept Albania under the umbrella of the Soviet Union and at the end with China. After the end of the relations with China in 1978, Albania paved the way of the total isolation.  The secret visit of the President Nixon's national security adviser Dr. Kissinger to China in July 1971 was interpreted by the Albanian communist leader as a betrayal of the Marxist ideology. Enver Hoxha responded with a harsh and rude letter on August 6th 1971 urging China to not accept the visit of President Nixon the following year. This was the first major break in the relations between the two countries. Since then, the help from China for the weak Albanian economy would decline till the unavoidable break of July 1978. The methodology used in this paper is strictly comparative history analyzing the way diplomacy and politics should work to achieve the set aim.

  20. Analysis of sea level data sequences in Colombian pacific ands its relationship to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rangel, Ernesto Santiago; Montealegre; Jose Edgar

    2003-01-01

    By analyzing series of mean sea level (MSL), data for the towns of Tumaco (01 degrades N 78 degrades 44 minutes W, elevation: 0 meters) and Buenaventura (03 degrades 51 degrades N, 76 degrades 58 minutes W, elevation: 1 meter) the seasonal, intra-annual and inter-annual variability of the MSL are studied in the Colombian pacific, in connection with the el Nino-La Nina - southern oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The detection and the analysis of possible trends are examined in search of likely signal of global change in Colombia. This work concludes that the mean sea level (MSL) data for Tumaco and Buenaventura, are a good indicator, the first one, and a relatively acceptable indicator, the second, of the ENSO cycle, although of very low resolution during the La Nina episodes, in both cases. It was detected equally, a marked tendency for increasing of the mean sea level, approximately starting from the beginnings of the decade of the seventies, which could be related to the higher frequency of warm episodes. Although the longitude of the analyzed series doesn't allow arriving to conclusive results, the increasing tendency of the sea levels during the last twenty years could serve as an early warning in connection with possible manifestations of the global change in Colombia

  1. An Update of Sea Level Rise in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alothman, Abdulaziz; Bos, Machiel; Fernandes, Rui

    2017-04-01

    Relative sea level variations in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf have been estimated in the past using no more than 10 to 15 years of observations. In Alothman et al. (2014), we have almost doubled the period to 28.7 years by examining all available tide gauge data in the area and constructing a mean gauge time-series from seven coastal tide gauges. We found for the period 1979-2007 a relative sea level rise of about 2mm/yr, which correspond to an absolute sea level rise of about 1.5mm/yr based on the vertical displacement of GNSS stations in the region. By taking into account the temporal correlations we concluded that previous published results underestimate the true sea level rate error in this area by a factor of 5-10. In this work, we discuss and update the methodology and results from Alothman et al. (2014), particularly by checking and extending the GNSS solutions. Since 3 of the 6 GPS stations used only started observing in the end of 2011, the longer time series have now significantly lower uncertainties in the estimated vertical rate. In addition, we compare our results with GRACE derived ocean bottom pressure time series which are a good proxy of the changes in water mass in this area over time.

  2. Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittermann, K.; Kemp, A.; Vermeer, M.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2017-12-01

    Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the `Holocene Optimum'. From ­­there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with semi-empirical sea-level models. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., et al. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews, 103, 91

  3. Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamisiea, Mark E.; Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.; Bingley, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. PMID:25157196

  4. Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamisiea, Mark E; Hughes, Chris W; Williams, Simon D P; Bingley, Richard M

    2014-09-28

    The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  5. Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.

  6. Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen L. Durden

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent publications have examined trends in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones in various basins. In this communication, the author focuses on typhoons in the western North Pacific. Rather than maximum wind speed, the intensity of the storms is measured by their lifetime minimum sea level pressure (MSLP. Quantile regression is used to test for trends in storms of extreme intensity. The results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing intensity in the most intense storms as measured by MSLP over the period 1951–2010. However, when the data are broken into intervals 1951–1987 and 1987–2010, neither interval has a significant trend, but the intensity quantiles for the two periods differ. Reasons for this are discussed, including the cessation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. The author also finds that the average typhoon intensity is greater in El Nino years, while the intensity of the strongest typhoons shows no significant relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  7. Evidence of exceptional oyster-reef resilience to fluctuations in sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridge, Justin T; Rodriguez, Antonio B; Fodrie, F Joel

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystems at the land-sea interface are vulnerable to rising sea level. Intertidal habitats must maintain their surface elevations with respect to sea level to persist via vertical growth or landward retreat, but projected rates of sea-level rise may exceed the accretion rates of many biogenic habitats. While considerable attention is focused on climate change over centennial timescales, relative sea level also fluctuates dramatically (10-30 cm) over month-to-year timescales due to interacting oceanic and atmospheric processes. To assess the response of oyster-reef ( Crassostrea virginica ) growth to interannual variations in mean sea level (MSL) and improve long-term forecasts of reef response to rising seas, we monitored the morphology of constructed and natural intertidal reefs over 5 years using terrestrial lidar. Timing of reef scans created distinct periods of high and low relative water level for decade-old reefs ( n  = 3) constructed in 1997 and 2000, young reefs ( n  = 11) constructed in 2011 and one natural reef (approximately 100 years old). Changes in surface elevation were related to MSL trends. Decade-old reefs achieved 2 cm/year growth, which occurred along higher elevations when MSL increased. Young reefs experienced peak growth (6.7 cm/year) at a lower elevation that coincided with a drop in MSL. The natural reef exhibited considerable loss during the low MSL of the first time step but grew substantially during higher MSL through the second time step, with growth peaking (4.3 cm/year) at MSL, reoccupying the elevations previously lost. Oyster reefs appear to be in dynamic equilibrium with short-term (month-to-year) fluctuations in sea level, evidencing notable resilience to future changes to sea level that surpasses other coastal biogenic habitat types. These growth patterns support the presence of a previously defined optimal growth zone that shifts correspondingly with changes in MSL, which can help guide oyster-reef conservation and

  8. Patch-reef morphology as a proxy for Holocene sea-level variability, Northern Florida Keys, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, J.C.; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, M.; Wright, C.W.; Nayegandhi, A.

    2008-01-01

    A portion of the northern Florida Keys reef tract was mapped with the NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) and the morphology of patch reefs was related to variations in Holocene sea level. Following creation of a lidar digital elevation model (DEM), geospatial analyses delineated morphologic attributes of 1,034 patch reefs (reef depth, basal area, height, volume, and topographic complexity). Morphometric analysis revealed two morphologically different populations of patch reefs associated with two distinct depth intervals above and below a water depth of 7.7 m. Compared to shallow reefs, the deep reefs were smaller in area and volume and showed no trend in topographic complexity relative to water depth. Shallow reefs were more variable in area and volume and became flatter and less topographically complex with decreasing water depth. The knoll-like morphology of deep reefs was interpreted as consistent with steady and relatively rapidly rising early Holocene sea level that restricted the lateral growth of reefs. The morphology of shallow 'pancake-shaped' reefs at the highest platform elevations was interpreted as consistent with fluctuating sea level during the late Holocene. Although the ultimate cause for the morphometric depth trends remains open to interpretation, these interpretations are compatible with a recent eustatic sea-level curve that hindcasts fluctuating late Holocene sea level. Thus it is suggested that the morphologic differences represent two stages of reef accretion that occurred during different sea-level conditions. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

  9. Factors perceived as being related to accidental falls by persons with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Denison, Eva; Gunnarsson, Lars-Gunnar; Boström, Katrin

    2009-01-01

    This study explores and describes factors that persons with multiple sclerosis (MS) perceive as being related to accidental falls. A qualitative content analysis with primarily deductive approach was conducted using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. Twelve persons with MS, and identified as fallers, were interviewed. Factors perceived to cause accidental falls that had not previously been targeted in MS populations in relation to falls were identified as divided attention, reduced muscular endurance, fatigue and heat sensitivity. Previously reported risk factors such as changed gait pattern, limited walking ability, impaired proprioception, vision and spasticity were supported. Activities involving walking, recreation and leisure, maintaining and changing body position, lifting or carrying, taking care of the home, washing the body, moving around, preparing meals and housekeeping were limited and considered to be risk activities. Supportive persons and assistive device reduced falls, and unsuitable physical environments and climate conditions induced falls. Several preventative strategies were described as partially compensating for the impairments, limitations and restrictions. Investigating accidental falls using the perspective of the patient gave important information about variables not earlier targeted in MS research.

  10. Examining the interplay of climate and low amplitude sea-level change on the distribution and volume of massive dolomitization: Zebbag Formation, Cretaceous, Southern Tunisia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Newport, Richard; Hollis, Cathy; Bodin, Stéphane

    2017-01-01

    During the Cretaceous, a humid global climate, calcitic seas, high relative sea-level and low amplitude changes in relative sea-level largely prevented large-scale dolomitization in many carbonate successions. However, the well-exposed shallow-water carbonate sediments of the Upper Albian–Lower T...

  11. Orthogonal stack of global tide gauge sea level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trupin, A.; Wahr, J.

    1990-01-01

    Yearly and monthly tide gauge sea level data from around the globe are fitted to numerically generated equilibrium tidal data to search for the 18.6 year lunar tide and 14 month pole tide. Both tides are clearly evident in the results, and their amplitudes and phases are found to be consistent with a global equilibrium response. Global, monthly sea level data from outside the Baltic sea and Gulf of Bothnia are fitted to global atmospheric pressure data to study the response of the ocean to pressure fluctuations. The response is found to be inverted barometer at periods greater than two months. Global averages of tide gauge data, after correcting for the effects of post glacial rebound on individual station records, reveal an increase in sea level over the last 80 years of between 1.1 mm/yr and 1.9 mm/yr.

  12. Genetic Programming for Sea Level Predictions in an Island Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Ghorbani

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of sea-level are important for geodetic applications, navigation, coastal, industrial and tourist activities. In the current work, the Genetic Programming (GP and artificial neural networks (ANNs were applied to forecast half-daily and daily sea-level variations from 12 hours to 5 days ahead. The measurements at the Cocos (Keeling Islands in the Indian Ocean were used for training and testing of the employed artificial intelligence techniques. A comparison was performed of the predictions from the GP model and the ANN simulations. Based on the comparison outcomes, it was found that the Genetic Programming approach can be successfully employed in forecasting of sea level variations.

  13. The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, J.

    2015-12-01

    It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.

  14. Correspondence of Mesozoic Eustatic Sea-Level Change with Palaeoclimate Proxies: Evidence for Glacio-Eustasy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, M.; Davies, A.; Gréselle, B.

    2011-12-01

    Large-scale changes in stratigraphic architecture and facies that are brought about by changes in relative sea-level have been the focus of much academic and industry study over the last few decades. The authors, plus numerous colleagues, have studied over 11,000 stratigraphic sections worldwide. By applying biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic calibration in suitable locations from this dataset it is possible to demonstrate over 250 synchronous global sequence stratigraphic events in the Phanerozoic including over 100 in the Mesozoic. This then raises the question - what causes globally synchronous eustatic sea-level change? To answer this question requires an understanding of both the pace and amplitude of the observed eustatic sea-level change. In successions where duration can be deduced from orbital forcing cycles, our observed sea-level changes appear to be relatively rapid - less than 500,000 years, for example, for sea-level rises in the Late Jurassic. The amplitude of such rises is in the order of tens of metres. Such rates and amplitudes as inferred from our global model preclude tectonism as a primary driver and implicate glacio-eustacy as a key driving mechanism, even in supposed "greenhouse times". Given the clear economic importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms driving this eustatic change we have compiled records of key isotopic proxies through the entire Mesozoic in an effort to explore the relationship between global sea-level and palaeoclimate. Our research reveals a clear link between many large-scale maximum flooding events with known episodes of palaeoclimatic warming and between climatic cooling events and lowstand intervals, further implicating glacio-eustacy. In addition to the isotopic proxy evidence we have also compiled direct indicators for the occurrence of cold polar conditions, including the presence of ice sheets, in the Mesozoic (e.g. tillites, glendonites). This has been incorporated into plate tectonic

  15. Investigating the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise in the Galveston Bay, Texas region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subedee, M.; Dotson, M.; Gibeaut, J. C.

    2016-02-01

    Anthropogenic effects throughout the twenty-first century, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, have contributed to global climatic and environmental changes. Sea level rise (SLR) is one of these changes which is occurring along the Texas Coast and is amplified by land subsidence. SLR along the northern Texas coast is impacting sensitive coastal environments as well as human populations, and industries and infrastructure supporting those populations. Sea level data from the NOAA gauge at Galveston Pier 21 has shown an increase of 2.08 feet in relative sea level in 100 years. Given an expected increase in the rate of sea level rise in the next decades, the purpose of this study is to provide an in-depth assessment on the effects of relative sea level rise on the habitat distribution of highly valuable coastal wetlands in the Galveston Bay region. This study also focuses on projecting the potential socioeconomic losses due to coastal flooding that is amplified by SLR in the region. In this study, three SLR scenarios are modeled: a scenario based on a linear extrapolation of satellite altimetry data (0.21 m by 2100); the IPCC's RCP8.5 mean scenario (0.74 m by 2100); and a high-end scenario (1.8 m by 2100) as proposed by Jevrejeva et al. (2014). A land subsidence rate calculated by developing a subsidence grid using GPS-measured subsidence monitoring and releveling data is added to all these scenarios. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to predict wetland conversion due to long-term SLR incorporating the processes of inundation, erosion, accretion, overwash, and saturation. Similarly, HAZUS-MH is used to evaluate the property damage to building stocks and the direct business interruption losses due to flooding caused by 100-year flood event scenario with three SLR scenarios. This coordinated research effort to assess the physical, environmental and policy impacts due to SLR is intended to enable policy-makers, managers, and the general public to

  16. Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

    2012-01-01

    Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

  17. Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-04-24

    Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

  18. Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Luu, Q.-H.; Babu, M.T.

    www.ocean-sci.net/9/293/2013/ doi:10.5194/os-9-293-2013 © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Advances in Geosciences O pen A ccess Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences O pen A ccess Annales Geophysicae O pen A... Sci., 9, 293–300, 2013 www.ocean-sci.net/9/293/2013/ P. Tkalich et al.: Sea level in Singapore Strait 295 likely to be the cause for modulating the inter-annual sea level variability associated with ENSO. On the Sunda Shelf and particularly in SS, our...

  19. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senarath, S. U.

    2005-12-01

    Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous

  20. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  1. Large-scale Mass Transport Deposits in the Valencia Basin (Western Mediterranean): slope instability induced by rapid sea-level drawdown?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameselle, Alejandra L.; Urgeles, Roger; Llopart, Jaume

    2014-05-01

    drawdown using slope geotechnical properties and pre-conditioning factors related to the geological setting of the Valencia Basin. Using several sea-level fall ratios, the variation of the safety factor with respect to successive positions of the sea-level during drawdown has been evaluated.

  2. Identifying characteristics and outcomes that are associated with fall-related fatalities: multi-year retrospective summary of fall deaths in older adults from 2005-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deprey, Sara M; Biedrzycki, Lynda; Klenz, Kristine

    2017-12-01

    Fall-related deaths continue to be the leading cause of accidental deaths in the older adult (65+ year) population. However, many fall-related fatalities are unspecified and little is known about the fall characteristics and personal demographics at the time of the fall. Therefore, this report describes the characteristics, circumstances and injuries of falls that resulted in older adult deaths in one U.S. County and explores the variables associated with fatal injuries from falls. This is a continued retrospective analysis of 841older adults whose underlying cause of death was due to a fall over an 8-year period (2005-2012). Demographics and logistic regression of fall characteristics and injuries were analyzed. Falls that led to death most often occurred when walking in one's own home. Most of the residents in this study were community-dwellers who had previous comorbidities taking an average of six medications prior to their fall. Survival after a fall was on average 31 days. The two most common injuries after a fatal fall were hip fractures (54%), and head injuries (21%). A logistic regression identified two variables associated with hip fracture, advancing age (OR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.08) and diagnosis of a prior neurological condition (OR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.4-3.1). Variables associated with head injuries included younger age (OR = .91, 95% CI = .89-.94), male gender (OR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.7-3.8), prescribed anticoagulants (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.5-3.9) and negative musculoskeletal comorbidity (OR = 1.9. 95% CI = 1.1-3.0). Hip fractures and head injuries were the most common injury after a fall that led to death in older adults greater than 65 years. There are opposing risk factors for older adults who incur a hip fracture compared to a head injury. Thus, health professionals will need to individualize prevention efforts to reduce fall fatalities.

  3. Thresholds of sea-level rise rate and sea-level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; Biber, Patrick; Bethel, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    Feedbacks among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea-level rise (SLR). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold helps address key challenges in ecology-nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, promotes communication between ecologists and resource managers, and facilitates decision-making in climate change policies. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to enhanced anthropogenic forces. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. We chose a representative marine-dominated estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Grand Bay in Mississippi, to test the concept of SLR thresholds. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and then derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay. The model results show that the threshold of SLR rate in Grand Bay is 11.9 mm/year for 2050, and it drops to 8.4 mm/year for 2100 using total wetland area as a landscape metric. The corresponding SLR acceleration rate thresholds are 3.02 × 10 -4  m/year 2 and 9.62 × 10 -5  m/year 2 for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The newly developed SLR acceleration rate threshold can help quantify the temporal lag before the rapid decline in wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded, and cumulative SLR a wetland can adapt to under the SLR acceleration scenarios. Based on the thresholds, SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), highlighting the need to avoid RCP8.5 to preserve these marshes.

  4. Fall-related injuries in a nursing home setting: is polypharmacy a risk factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranzini, Federico; Diurni, Marcello; Ceccon, Francesca; Poloni, Nicola; Cazzamalli, Sara; Costantini, Chiara; Colli, Cristiano; Greco, Laura; Callegari, Camilla

    2009-12-11

    Polypharmacy is regarded as an important risk factor for fallingand several studies and meta-analyses have shown an increased fall risk in users of diuretics, type 1a antiarrhythmics, digoxin and psychotropic agents. In particular, recent evidence has shown that fall risk is associated with the use of polypharmacy regimens that include at least one established fall risk-increasing drug, rather than with polypharmacy per se. We studied the role of polypharmacy and the role of well-known fall risk-increasing drugs on the incidence of injurious falls. A retrospective observational study was carried out in a population of elderly nursing home residents. An unmatched, post-stratification design for age class, gender and length of stay was adopted. In all, 695 falls were recorded in 293 residents. 221 residents (75.4%) were female and 72 (24.6%) male, and 133 (45.4%) were recurrent fallers. 152 residents sustained no injuries when they fell, whereas injuries were sustained by 141: minor in 95 (67.4%) and major in 46 (32.6%). Only fall dynamics (p = 0.013) and drugs interaction between antiarrhythmic or antiparkinson class and polypharmacy regimen (> or =7 medications) seem to represent a risk association for injuries (p = 0.024; OR = 4.4; CI 95% 1.21 - 15.36). This work reinforces the importance of routine medication reviews, especially in residents exposed to polypharmacy regimens that include antiarrhythmics or antiparkinson drugs, in order to reduce the risk of fall-related injuries during nursing home stays.

  5. Fall-related injuries in a nursing home setting: is polypharmacy a risk factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colli Cristiano

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Polypharmacy is regarded as an important risk factor for fallingand several studies and meta-analyses have shown an increased fall risk in users of diuretics, type 1a antiarrhythmics, digoxin and psychotropic agents. In particular, recent evidence has shown that fall risk is associated with the use of polypharmacy regimens that include at least one established fall risk-increasing drug, rather than with polypharmacy per se. We studied the role of polypharmacy and the role of well-known fall risk-increasing drugs on the incidence of injurious falls. Methods A retrospective observational study was carried out in a population of elderly nursing home residents. An unmatched, post-stratification design for age class, gender and length of stay was adopted. In all, 695 falls were recorded in 293 residents. Results 221 residents (75.4% were female and 72 (24.6% male, and 133 (45.4% were recurrent fallers. 152 residents sustained no injuries when they fell, whereas injuries were sustained by 141: minor in 95 (67.4% and major in 46 (32.6%. Only fall dynamics (p = 0.013 and drugs interaction between antiarrhythmic or antiparkinson class and polypharmacy regimen (≥7 medications seem to represent a risk association for injuries (p = 0.024; OR = 4.4; CI 95% 1.21 - 15.36. Conclusion This work reinforces the importance of routine medication reviews, especially in residents exposed to polypharmacy regimens that include antiarrhythmics or antiparkinson drugs, in order to reduce the risk of fall-related injuries during nursing home stays.

  6. Statistical analysis of the acceleration of Baltic mean sea-level rise, 1900-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgit Hünicke

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyse annual mean sea-level records from tide-gauges located in the Baltic and parts of the North Sea with the aim of detecting an acceleration of sea-level rise over the 20textsuperscript{th} and 21textsuperscript{st} centuries. The acceleration is estimated as a (1 fit to a polynomial of order two in time, (2 a long-term linear increase in the rates computed over gliding overlapping decadal time segments, and (3 a long-term increase of the annual increments of sea level.The estimation methods (1 and (2 prove to be more powerful in detecting acceleration when tested with sea-level records produced in global climate model simulations. These methods applied to the Baltic-Sea tide-gauges are, however, not powerful enough to detect a significant acceleration in most of individual records, although most estimated accelerations are positive. This lack of detection of statistically significant acceleration at the individual tide-gauge level can be due to the high-level of local noise and not necessarily to the absence of acceleration.The estimated accelerations tend to be stronger in the north and east of the Baltic Sea. Two hypothesis to explain this spatial pattern have been explored. One is that this pattern reflects the slow-down of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. However, a simple estimation of this effect suggests that this slow-down cannot explain the estimated acceleration. The second hypothesis is related to the diminishing sea-ice cover over the 20textsuperscript{th} century. The melting o of less saline and colder sea-ice can lead to changes in sea-level. Also, the melting of sea-ice can reduce the number of missing values in the tide-gauge records in winter, potentially influencing the estimated trends and acceleration of seasonal mean sea-level This hypothesis cannot be ascertained either since the spatial pattern of acceleration computed for winter and summer separately are very similar. The all-station-average-record displays an

  7. Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M.

    2015-08-24

    Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components

  8. Topex-Poseidon analysis of sea level variability over the Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalan P-U, M.; Villares, P.; Catalan, M.; Gomez-Enri, J.

    2003-04-01

    The variability of sea level and surface geostrophic currents in Atlantic Ocean is investigated using 333 cycles of altimeter information obtained by TOPEX-POSEIDON satellite. After the improvements of orbit accuracy, the most important concern to studies of sea level variability from altimeter height data are related with the formalism used for modelling the altimetric measurement corrections. Presently, one of the main sources of potential error is the correction for atmospheric pressure loading, the so-called ‘inverse barometer effect’. As is well known, this correction is intended to adjust the sea surface elevation for the static effects of the downward force of the mass of the atmosphere on the sea surface, adjusted, in this oversimplified model in 1cm/mbar. The exact response of the sea surface to atmospheric pressure loading depends on the space and time scales of the pressure field and must be specially a concern at high latitudes where atmospheric pressure fluctuations are large due to the intensity of low pressure fields at these latitudes and the additional uncertainty in the model estimates of the local sea level pressure. To study these effects over the whole Atlantic Ocean we compute a linear regression adjustment and an Empirical Orthogonal Functions Decomposition (EOFD), between sea level variation without inverse barometer correction and the atmospheric pressure, in all the Topex-Poseidon cross points over the whole Atlantic, including both the Artic and Antarctic Oceans. We use the barometric factor computed from the linear regression to correct the satellite mean sea level variation, comparing the correlation with the pressure. Our results show an important improvement in the decorrelation between sea level and atmospheric pressure time series, compared with the use of Inverse Barometer model, at most of the satellite cross points. The complicated nature of sea level variability at high latitudes justify that EOFD analysis conclusions

  9. Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

    2004-11-01

    In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much

  10. Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.

    2016-01-04

    This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results.

  11. Fluvial Responses to Holocene sea Level Variations Along the Macdonald River, New South Wales, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustomji, P.; Chappell, J.; Olley, J.

    2003-12-01

    some 35km of river, mostly upstream of the tidal limit, and meanders were cut off. The bed aggraded by 3m and the point of intersection of the river bed with MSL shifted 7.6km down valley. The channel has contracted since these floods and is building a new floodplain below the post-1500 BP inset floodplain. The late Holocene fluvial history of the Macdonald River is one of rapid adjustment to falling base level. The formation of the major fluvial landforms of the valley coinciding with late Holocene sea level at +1 to +2m, followed by subsequent abandonment of this surface with associated bed incision and channel straightening, may be a common phenomenon along river systems of eastern Australia. If so it may explain the propensity for instability of rivers along the New South Wales coast.

  12. Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckett, Leah H; Baldwin, Andrew H; Kearney, Michael S

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mm yr-1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mm yr-1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among the marshes studied, and ranged from -9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mm yr-1. Surface accretion of deposited mineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9-15 mm yr-1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. Previous studies have focused on surface elevation change in marshes of uniform salinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies in marshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.

  13. Solving the Sea-Level Equation in an Explicit Time Differencing Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemann, V.; Hagedoorn, J. M.; Thomas, M.

    2016-12-01

    In preparation of coupling the solid-earth to an ice-sheet compartment in an earth-system model, the dependency of initial topography on the ice-sheet history and viscosity structure has to be analysed. In this study, we discuss this dependency and how it influences the reconstruction of former sea level during a glacial cycle. The modelling is based on the VILMA code in which the field equations are solved in the time domain applying an explicit time-differencing scheme. The sea-level equation is solved simultaneously in the same explicit scheme as the viscoleastic field equations (Hagedoorn et al., 2007). With the assumption of only small changes, we neglect the iterative solution at each time step as suggested by e.g. Kendall et al. (2005). Nevertheless, the prediction of the initial paleo topography in case of moving coastlines remains to be iterated by repeated integration of the whole load history. The sensitivity study sketched at the beginning is accordingly motivated by the question if the iteration of the paleo topography can be replaced by a predefined one. This study is part of the German paleoclimate modelling initiative PalMod. Lit:Hagedoorn JM, Wolf D, Martinec Z, 2007. An estimate of global mean sea-level rise inferred from tide-gauge measurements using glacial-isostatic models consistent with the relative sea-level record. Pure appl. Geophys. 164: 791-818, doi:10.1007/s00024-007-0186-7Kendall RA, Mitrovica JX, Milne GA, 2005. On post-glacial sea level - II. Numerical formulation and comparative reesults on spherically symmetric models. Geophys. J. Int., 161: 679-706, doi:10.1111/j.365-246.X.2005.02553.x

  14. Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Xue, Yan; Szekely, Tanguy; Fukumori, Ichiro; Forget, Gael; Chang, You-Soon; Good, Simon A.; Köhl, Armin; Vernieres, Guillaume; Ferry, Nicolas; Peterson, K. Andrew; Behringer, David; Ishii, Masayoshi; Masuda, Shuhei; Fujii, Yosuke; Toyoda, Takahiro; Yin, Yonghong; Valdivieso, Maria; Barnier, Bernard; Boyer, Tim; Lee, Tony; Gourrion, Jérome; Wang, Ou; Heimback, Patrick; Rosati, Anthony; Kovach, Robin; Hernandez, Fabrice; Martin, Matthew J.; Kamachi, Masafumi; Kuragano, Tsurane; Mogensen, Kristian; Alves, Oscar; Haines, Keith; Wang, Xiaochun

    2017-08-01

    Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003-2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993-2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

  15. Extremely low genetic diversity across mangrove taxa reflects past sea level changes and hints at poor future responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zixiao; Li, Xinnian; He, Ziwen; Yang, Yuchen; Wang, Wenqing; Zhong, Cairong; Greenberg, Anthony J; Wu, Chung-I; Duke, Norman C; Shi, Suhua

    2018-04-01

    The projected increases in sea levels are expected to affect coastal ecosystems. Tropical communities, anchored by mangrove trees and having experienced frequent past sea level changes, appear to be vibrant at present. However, any optimism about the resilience of these ecosystems is premature because the impact of past climate events may not be reflected in the current abundance. To assess the impact of historical sea level changes, we conducted an extensive genetic diversity survey on the Indo-Malayan coast, a hotspot with a large global mangrove distribution. A survey of 26 populations in six species reveals extremely low genome-wide nucleotide diversity and hence very small effective population sizes (N e ) in all populations. Whole-genome sequencing of three mangrove species further shows the decline in N e to be strongly associated with the speed of past changes in sea level. We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises. Well-planned coastal development near mangrove forests will be essential to avert this crisis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Resilience of Infrastructure Systems to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Areas: Impacts, Adaptation Measures, and Implementation Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Azevedo de Almeida

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Expansive areas of low elevation in many densely populated coastal areas are at elevated risk of storm surges and flooding due to torrential precipitation, as a result of sea level rise. These phenomena could have catastrophic impacts on coastal communities and result in the destruction of critical infrastructure, disruption of economic activities and salt water contamination of the water supply. The objective of the study presented in this paper was to identify various impacts of sea level rise on civil infrastructures in coastal areas and examine the adaptation measures suggested in the existing literature. To this end, a systemic review of the existing literature was conducted in order to identify a repository of studies addressing sea level rise impacts and adaptation measures in the context of infrastructure systems. The study focused on three infrastructure sectors: water and wastewater, energy, and road transportation. The collected information was then analyzed in order to identify different categories of sea level rise impacts and corresponding adaptation measures. The findings of the study are threefold: (1 the major categories of sea level rise impacts on different infrastructure systems; (2 measures for protection, accommodation, and retreat in response to sea level rise impacts; and (3 challenges related to implementing adaptation measures.

  17. Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, P.

    2015-12-01

    There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

  18. Barrier island response to an elevated sea-level anomaly: Onslow Beach, North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theuerkauf, E. J.; Rodriguez, A. B.; Fegley, S. R.; Luettich, R.

    2012-12-01

    Variations in sea level over time scales ranging from hours to millennia influence coastal processes and evolution. At annual time scales, elevated sea-level anomalies produce coastal flooding and promote beach erosion. This study examines the coastal response of Onslow Beach, North Carolina to the summer 2009 East Coast sea-level anomaly. Onslow Beach is a 12-km-long wave-dominated barrier island with highly variable along-barrier morphology. The transgressive southern portion of the island is characterized by a narrow beach, low dunes, and multiple washover fans, while the regressive northern portion is characterized by a wide beach and continuous tall dunes. Hourly tide gauge data from adjacent NOAA stations (Beaufort and Wrightsville Beach) are used to determine the timing and extent of elevated water levels. The seasonal and longer term trends (relative sea level rise) are removed from both of the water level series and the sea-level anomaly is represented by a large residual between the observed and predicted water levels. Beach response is quantified using terrestrial laser scanning for morphology and from geoprobe cores to determine the maximum depth of erosion (MDOE). The mean high water (MHW) shoreline and dune toe are digitized from digital elevation models derived from the laser scans and analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). Landward (negative) movement of these contacts indicates erosion. Wave data collected from an Acoustic Wave and Current Meter (AWAC) located offshore of the southern end of Onslow Beach is used to characterize the wave regime throughout the study. Water level is elevated in the tide gauge data from June 2009 to March 2010. This sea-level anomaly corresponds with an increase in the maximum depth of erosion between 2009 and 2010. Landward movement of the MHW shoreline and the dunetoe increased during the period between September 2009 and May 2010 indicating an increase in beach erosion during the sea-level

  19. Bone and fall-related fracture risks in women and men with a recent clinical fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Helden, Svenhjalmar; van Geel, Antonia C M; Geusens, Piet P; Kessels, Alfons; Nieuwenhuijzen Kruseman, Arie C; Brink, Peter R G

    2008-02-01

    Worldwide fracture rates are increasing as a result of the aging population, and prevention, both primary and secondary, is an important public health goal. Therefore, we systematically analyzed risk factors in subjects with a recent clinical fracture. All men and women over fifty years of age who had been treated in the emergency department of, or hospitalized at, our institution because of a recent fracture during a one-year period were offered the opportunity to undergo an evidence-based bone and fall-related risk-factor assessment and bone densitometry. The women included in this study were also compared with a group of postmenopausal women without a fracture history who had been included in another cohort study. Of the 940 consecutive patients, 797 (85%) were eligible for this study and 568 (60%) agreed to participate. The prevalence of fall-related risk factors (75% [95% confidence interval = 71% to 78%]; n = 425) and the prevalence of bone-related risk factors (53% [95% confidence interval = 49% to 57%]; n = 299) at the time of fracture were higher than the prevalence of osteoporosis (35% [95% confidence interval = 31% to 39%]; n = 201) as defined by a dual x-ray absorptiometry T score of fall and bone-related risk factors were present irrespective of the fracture location, patient age, or gender. An overlap between bone and fall-related risk factors was found in 50% of the patients. After adjusting for age, weight, and height, we found that women with a fracture more frequently had a diagnosis of osteoporosis (odds ratio = 2.9; 95% confidence interval = 2.0 to 4.1) and had a more extensive history of falls (odds ratio = 4.0; 95% confidence interval = 2.7 to 5.9) than did the postmenopausal women without a fracture history. Men and women over fifty years of age who had recently sustained a clinical fracture had, at the time of that fracture, bone and fall-related risk factors that were greater than the risk predicted by the presence of osteoporosis. Risk

  20. Recent opioid use and fall-related injury among older patients with trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daoust, Raoul; Paquet, Jean; Moore, Lynne; Émond, Marcel; Gosselin, Sophie; Lavigne, Gilles; Choinière, Manon; Boulanger, Aline; Mac-Thiong, Jean-Marc; Chauny, Jean-Marc

    2018-04-23

    Evidence for an association between opioid use and risk of falls or fractures in older adults is inconsistent. We examine the association between recent opioid use and the risk, as well as the clinical outcomes, of fall-related injuries in a large trauma population of older adults. In a retrospective, observational, multicentre cohort study conducted on registry data, we included all patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted (hospital stay > 2 d) for injury in 57 trauma centres in the province of Quebec, Canada, between 2004 and 2014. We looked at opioid prescriptions filled in the 2 weeks preceding the trauma in patients who sustained a fall, compared with those who sustained an injury through another mechanism. A total of 67 929 patients were retained for analysis. Mean age was 80.9 (± 8.0) years and 69% were women. The percentage of patients who had filled an opioid prescription in the 2 weeks preceding an injury was 4.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7%-5.1%) for patients who had had a fall, compared with 1.5% (95% CI 1.2%-1.8%) for those who had had an injury through another mechanism. After we controlled for confounding variables, patients who had filled an opioid prescription within 2 weeks before injury were 2.4 times more likely to have a fall rather than any other type of injury. For patients who had a fall-related injury, those who used opioids were at increased risk of in-hospital death (odds ratio 1.58; 95% CI 1.34-1.86). Recent opioid use is associated with an increased risk of fall and an increased likelihood of death in older adults. © 2018 Joule Inc. or its licensors.

  1. Assessment of fall-related self-efficacy and activity avoidance in people with Parkinson's disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drake Anna-Maria

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fear of falling (FOF is common in Parkinson's disease (PD, and it is considered a vital aspect of comprehensive balance assessment in PD. FOF can be conceptualized differently. The Falls-Efficacy Scale (FES assesses fall-related self-efficacy, whereas the Survey of Activities and Fear of Falling in the Elderly (SAFFE assesses activity avoidance due to the risk of falling. This study aimed at investigating the validity and reliability of FES and SAFFE in people with PD. Methods Seventy-nine people with PD (mean age; 64 years, SD 7.2 completed the Swedish version of FES(S, SAFFE and the physical functioning (PF scale of the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36. FES(S and SAFFE were administered twice, with an 8.8 (SD 2.3 days interval. Assumptions for summing item scores into total scores were examined and score reliability (Cronbach's alpha and test-retest reliability were calculated. Construct validity was assessed by examining the pattern of Spearman correlations (rs between the FES(S/SAFFE and other variables, and by examining differences in FES(S/SAFFE scores between fallers and non-fallers, genders, and between those reporting FOF and unsteadiness while turning. Results For both scales, item mean scores (and standard deviations were roughly similar and corrected item-total correlations exceeded 0.4. Reliabilities were ≥0.87. FES(S-scores correlated strongest (rs, -0.74, p s, -0.76, p s ≤ 0.08. Experiencing falls, unsteadiness while turning, and FOF was associated with lower fall-related self-efficacy and higher activity avoidance. Conclusions This study provides initial support for the score reliability and validity of the FES(S and SAFFE in people with PD.

  2. Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal drainage systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Titus, J G; Kuo, C Y; Gibbs, M J; LaRoche, T B; Webb, M K; Waddell, J O

    1987-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century, which would raise sea level a few feet and alter precipitation patterns. Both of these changes would have major impacts on the operation of coastal drainage systems. However, because sea level rise and climate change resulting from the greenhouse effect are still uncertain, most planners and engineers are ignoring the potential implications. Case studies of the potential impact on watersheds in Charleston, South Carolina, and Fort Walton Beach, Florida, suggest that the cost of designing a new system to accommodate a rise in sea level will sometimes be small compared with the retrofit cost that may ultimately be necessary if new systems are not designed for a rise. Rather than ignore the greenhouse effect until its consequences are firmly established, engineers and planners should evaluate whether it would be worthwhile to insure that new systems are not vulnerable to the risks of climate change and sea level rise.

  3. Integrating conservation costs into sea level rise adaptive conservation prioritization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingjian Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity conservation requires strategic investment as resources for conservation are often limited. As sea level rises, it is important and necessary to consider both sea level rise and costs in conservation decision making. In this study, we consider costs of conservation in an integrated modeling process that incorporates a geomorphological model (SLAMM, species habitat models, and conservation prioritization (Zonation to identify conservation priorities in the face of landscape dynamics due to sea level rise in the Matanzas River basin of northeast Florida. Compared to conservation priorities that do not consider land costs in the analysis process, conservation priorities that consider costs in the planning process change significantly. The comparison demonstrates that some areas with high conservation values might be identified as lower priorities when integrating economic costs in the planning process and some areas with low conservation values might be identified as high priorities when considering costs in the planning process. This research could help coastal resources managers make informed decisions about where and how to allocate conservation resources more wisely to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to sea level rise.

  4. Responding to changes in sea level: engineering implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council Staff; Marine Board; Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council

    1987-01-01

    ... Mean Sea Level Marine Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C. 1987 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files XML from other this and of recom...

  5. Diurnal variations of serum erythropoietin at sea level and altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, T; Poulsen, T D; Fogh-Andersen, N

    1996-01-01

    in 2, 3 diphosphoglycerate. After 64 h at altitude, six of the nine subjects had down-regulated their serum-EPO concentrations so that median values were three times above those at sea level. These six subjects had significant diurnal variations of serum-EPO concentration at sea level; the nadir......This study tested the hypothesis that the diurnal variations of serum-erythropoietin concentration (serum-EPO) observed in normoxia also exist in hypoxia. The study also attempted to investigate the regulation of EPO production during sustained hypoxia. Nine subjects were investigated at sea level...... and during 4 days at an altitude of 4350 m. Median sea level serum-EPO concentration was 6 (range 6-13) U.l-1. Serum-EPO concentration increased after 18 and 42 h at altitude, [58 (range 39-240) and 54 (range 36-340) U.l-1, respectively], and then decreased after 64 and 88 h at altitude [34 (range 18...

  6. Geomorphic expression of late Quaternary sea level changes along ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, M. S. University of Baroda, Vadodara 390 002, India. ∗ e-mail: ... referred to as miliolite limestone and shell lime- stone that form coastal ... the bed rocks and corresponding to the prevailing sea level.

  7. Guiding Users to Sea Level Change Data Through Content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Huang, T.; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Boeck, A.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is an immersive and innovative web portal for sea level change research that addresses the needs of diverse audiences, from scientists across disparate disciplines to the general public to policy makers and businesses. Since sea level change research involves vast amounts of data from multiple fields, it becomes increasingly important to come up with novel and effective ways to guide users to the data they need. News articles published on the portal contains links to relevant data. The Missions section highlights missions and projects as well as provide a logical grouping of the data. Tools available on the portal, such as the Data Analysis Tool, a data visualization and high-performance environment for sea level analysis, and the Virtual Earth System Laboratory, a 3D simulation application, describes and links to the source data. With over 30K Facebook followers and over 23K Twitter follower, the portal outreach team also leverages social media to guide users to relevant data. This presentation focuses on how the portal uses news articles, mission and project pages, tools, and social media to connect users to the data.

  8. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates the vulnerability of the wastewater collection and disposal infrastructure (i.e. pipelines and manholes, pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants) to sea-level rise in eThekwini Municipality, South Africa. By using geographical information systems (GIS) and a multi-criteria analysis considering ...

  9. Measuring progress of the global sea level observing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Philip L.; Aarup, Thorkild; Merrifield, Mark; Mitchum, Gary T.; Le Provost, Christian

    Sea level is such a fundamental parameter in the sciences of oceanography geophysics, and climate change, that in the mid-1980s, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). GLOSS was to improve the quantity and quality of data provided to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), and thereby, data for input to studies of long-term sea level change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It would also provide the key data needed for international programs, such as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and later, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR).GLOSS is now one of the main observation components of the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) of IOC and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Progress and deficiencies in GLOSS were presented in July to the 22nd IOC Assembly at UNESCO in Paris and are contained in the GLOSS Assessment Report (GAR) [IOC, 2003a].

  10. Evidence from the Seychelles of Last Interglacial Sea Level Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyverberg, K.; Dutton, A.; Dechnik, B.; Webster, J.; Zwartz, D.

    2014-12-01

    Several studies indicate that sea level oscillated during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, but the details of these scenarios, including the number of sea level oscillations, are still debated. We lack a detailed understanding of the sensitivity of the large polar ice sheets to changes in temperature that could result in eustatic sea level oscillations. Because the Seychelles are located far from the margins of the Last Glacial Maximum northern hemisphere ice sheets, they have not been subjected to glacial isostatic adjustment, and have been tectonically stable since the Last Interglacial period; therefore, they provide a robust record of eustatic sea level during MIS 5e. All of the outcrops we examined contain unconformities and/or sharp transitions between facies, though the nature of these boundaries varies between sites. In some outcrops we observed a hardground comprising fine-grained, mollusc-rich sediment layer between distinct generations of in situ coralgal framework. In one outcrop, this succession was observed twice, where two generations of reef growth were each capped by a strongly indurated fine-grained, mollusc-rich sediment layer. At the site with the greatest vertical extent of outcrop, there is a marked difference in the taxonomic composition of the coral community above and below an unconformable surface, but the indurated fine-grained, sediment layer observed elsewhere was absent. Most of the other outcrops we studied contained a common succession of facies from in situ reef units overlain by cemented coral rubble. In two dated outcrops, the age of corals above and below the rubble layer are the same age. The hardgrounds and rubble layers may represent ephemeral exposure of the reef units during two drops in sea level. The inference of multiple meter-scale oscillations during the MIS 5e highstand indicates a more dynamic cryosphere than the present interglacial, although the climatic threshold for more volatile polar ice sheets is not yet clear.

  11. Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

  12. Reduction of diuretics and analysis of water and muscle volumes to prevent falls and fall-related fractures in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Kosuke; Okada, Masahiro; Kamada, Nanao; Yamaguchi, Yumiko; Kakehashi, Masayuki; Sasaki, Hidemi; Katoh, Shigeko; Morita, Katsuya

    2017-02-01

    In an attempt to decrease the incidence of falls and fall-related fractures at a special geriatric nursing home, we endeavored to reduce diuretic doses, and examined the relationship between the effectiveness of this approach with the body compositions and activities of daily living of the study cohort. We enrolled 93 participants living in the community, 60 residents of an intermediate geriatric nursing home and 50 residents of the 100-bed Kandayama Yasuragien special geriatric nursing home. We recorded body composition using a multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analyzer. Daily loop diuretic and other diuretic regimens of those in the special geriatric nursing home were reduced or replaced with "NY-mode" diuretic therapy, namely, spironolactone 12.5 mg orally once on alternate days. The incidence of falls fell from 53 in 2011 to 29 in 2012, and there were no fall-related proximal femoral fractures for 3 years after the introduction of NY-mode diuretic therapy. We also found statistically significant differences in muscle and intracellular water volumes in our elderly participants: those with higher care requirements or lower levels of independence had lower muscle or water volumes. We found that reducing or replacing daily diuretics with NY-mode therapy appeared to reduce the incidence of falls and fall-related proximal femoral fracture, likely by preserving intracellular and extracellular body water volumes. Low-dose spironolactone (12.5 mg on alternate days) appears to be an effective means of treating elderly individuals with chronic heart failure or other edematous states, while preventing falls and fall-related fractures. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 262-269. © 2016 The Authors. Geriatrics & Gerontology International published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Geriatrics Society.

  13. Effect of square stepping exercise for older adults to prevent fall and injury related to fall: systematic review and meta-analysis of current evidences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisseha, Berihu; Janakiraman, Balamurugan; Yitayeh, Asmare; Ravichandran, Hariharasudhan

    2017-02-01

    Falls and fall related injuries become an emerging health problem among older adults. As a result a review of the recent evidences is needed to design a prevention strategy. The aim of this review was to determine the effect of square stepping exercise (SSE) for fall down injury among older adults compared with walking training or other exercises. An electronic database search for relevant randomized control trials published in English from 2005 to 2016 was conducted. Articles with outcome measures of functional reach, perceived health status, fear of fall were included. Quality of the included articles was rated using Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale and the pooled effect of SSE was obtained by Review Manager (RevMan5) software. Significant effect of SSE was detected over walking or no treatment to improve balance as well to prevent fear of fall and improve perceived health status. The results of this systematic review proposed that SSE significantly better than walking or no treatment to prevent fall, prevent fear of fall and improve perceived health status.

  14. A new Arctic 25-year Altimetric Sea-level Record (1992-2016) and Initial look at Arctic Sea Level Budget Closure

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen O.B., Passaro M., Benveniste J., Piccioni G.

    2016-01-01

    A new initiative within the ESA Sea Level Climate Change initiative (SL-cci) framework to improve the Arctic sea level record has been initiated as a combined effort to reprocess and retrack past altimetry to create a 25-year combined sea level record for sea level research studies. One of the objectives is to retracked ERS-2 dataset for the high latitudes based on the ALES retracking algorithm through adapting the ALES retracker for retracking of specular surfaces (leads). Secondly a reproce...

  15. Relation between risk of falling and postural sway complexity in diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, S; Colberg, S R; Parson, H K; Vinik, A I

    2012-04-01

    For older individuals with diabetes, any decline in balance control can be especially problematic since it is often a precursor to an increased risk of falling. This study was designed to evaluate differences in postural motion dynamics and falls risk for older individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) classified as fallers/non-fallers and, to assess what impact exercise has on balance and falls risk. The results demonstrated that the risk of falling is greater for those older individuals with multiple risk factors including diabetes and a previous falls history. The postural motion features of the high-risk individuals (T2DM-fallers) were also different, being characterized by increased variability and complexity, increased AP-ML coupling, less overall COP motion and increased velocity. One suggestion is that these individuals evoked a stiffening strategy during the more challenging postural tasks. Following training, a decline in falls risk was observed for all groups, with this effect being most pronounced for the T2DM-fallers. Interestingly, the COP motion of this group became more similar to controls, exhibiting decreased complexity and variability, and decreased velocity. The reciprocal changes in COP complexity support the broader view that age/disease-related changes in physiological complexity are bi-directional. Overall, these results show that, even for older T2DM individuals at greater risk of falling, targeted interventions can positively enhance their postural dynamics. Further, the finding that the pattern of postural motion variability and complexity was altered highlights that a decline in physiological complexity may not always be negatively associated with aging and/or disease. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Reactive Balance in Individuals With Chronic Stroke: Biomechanical Factors Related to Perturbation-Induced Backward Falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salot, Pooja; Patel, Prakruti; Bhatt, Tanvi

    2016-03-01

    An effective compensatory stepping response is the first line of defense for preventing a fall during sudden large external perturbations. The biomechanical factors that contribute to heightened fall risk in survivors of stroke, however, are not clearly understood. It is known that impending sensorimotor and balance deficits poststroke predispose these individuals to a risk of fall during sudden external perturbations. The purpose of this study was to examine the mechanism of fall risk in survivors of chronic stroke when exposed to sudden, slip-like forward perturbations in stance. This was a cross-sectional study. Fourteen individuals with stroke, 14 age-matched controls (AC group), and 14 young controls (YC group) were exposed to large-magnitude forward stance perturbations. Postural stability was computed as center of mass (COM) position (XCOM/BOS) and velocity (ẊCOM/BOS) relative to the base of support (BOS) at first step lift-off (LO) and touch-down (TD) and at second step TD. Limb support was quantified as vertical hip descent (Zhip) from baseline after perturbation onset. All participants showed a backward balance loss, with 71% of the stroke group experiencing a fall compared with no falls in the control groups (AC and YC groups). At first step LO, no between-group differences in XCOM/BOS and ẊCOM/BOS were noted. At first step TD, however, the stroke group had a significantly posterior XCOM/BOS and backward ẊCOM/BOS compared with the control groups. At second step TD, individuals with stroke were still more unstable (more posterior XCOM/BOS and backward ẊCOM/BOS) compared with the AC group. Individuals with stroke also showed greater peak Zhip compared with the control groups. Furthermore, the stroke group took a larger number of steps with shorter step length and delayed step initiation compared with the control groups. Although the study highlights the reactive balance deficits increasing fall risk in survivors of stroke compared with healthy

  17. Relations between postural stability, gait and falls in elderly persons--preliminary report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baczkowicz, Dawid; Szczegielniak, Jan; Proszkowiec, Małgorzata

    2008-01-01

    Balance control in elderly patients is the area of interest of many researchers. The results of their studies suggest that the measurement of shifts in the centre of foot pressure on the support base (COP) can be used as a tool for identification of fall-prone persons. It is interesting whether there are any relations between functional status, gait, posture stability and the risk of falling. The aim of this study was to find the answer to this question. The study involved 20 patients (mean age 78.1+/-11.6). The functional status of the patients was evaluated according to the Barthel Index. Postural stability was assessed with the use of a Neurocom Balance Master platform. Three measurements were taken with visual feedback (eyes open-EO) and three without visual feedback (eyes closed-EC). Balance control was also evaluated with the Berg test and on the basis of the history of episodes of falling in the preceding six months. Gait was evaluated with the six-minute walking test. The parameters recorded by the force platform showed a significant relation to the values obtained in the Berg test (r=-0.60; pfalls showed a significant relation only to the EO test (r=0.4; pfalls was connected with increased body sway. 3. The functional status of the patient and the balance control evaluation according to the Berg test failed to determine the risk of falling. 4. A relation was observed between postural stability, functional status and gait.

  18. Fear of falling in patients with hip fractures: prevalence and related psychological factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visschedijk, Jan; van Balen, Romke; Hertogh, Cees; Achterberg, Wilco

    2013-03-01

    To determine the prevalence of fear of falling (FoF) in patients after a hip fracture, to investigate the relation with time after fracture, and to assess associations between FoF and other psychological factors. Cross-sectional study performed between September 2010 and March 2011 in elderly patients after a hip fracture. Ten postacute geriatric rehabilitation wards in Dutch nursing homes. A total of 100 patients aged ≥65 years with a hip fracture admitted to a geriatric rehabilitation ward. FoF and related concepts such as falls-related self-efficacy, depression, and anxiety were measured by means of self-assessment instruments. Of all patients, 36% had a little FoF and 27% had quite a bit or very much FoF. Scores on the Falls Efficacy Scale-International were 30.6 in the first 4 weeks after hip fracture, 35.6 in the second 4 weeks, and 29.4 in the period ≥8 weeks after fracture. In these 3 periods, the prevalence rates of FoF were 62%, 68%, and 59%, respectively. Significant correlations were found between FoF and anxiety (P falls-related self-efficacy. During rehabilitation, FoF is greatest in the second 4 weeks after hip fracture. More studies are needed to explore the determinants of FoF and develop interventions to reduce FoF and improve outcome after rehabilitation. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Fear of Falling in Patients With Hip Fractures: Prevalence and Related Psychological Factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, J.; Van Balen, R.; Hertogh, C.M.P.M.; Achterberg, W.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To determine the prevalence of fear of falling (FoF) in patients after a hip fracture, to investigate the relation with time after fracture, and to assess associations between FoF and other psychological factors. Design: Cross-sectional study performed between September 2010 and March

  20. Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry, GRACE, in-situ bottom pressure records, and hydrographic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wei; Lemoine, Jean-Michel; Zhong, Min; Xu, Houze

    2014-05-01

    An annual amplitude of ~18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from steric-corrected altimetry and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites from 2003 to 2011, which dominates the mean sea level in the region. Seawater mass variations here generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The steric component of SLV calculated from oceanographic temperature and salinity data is relatively small and peaks about seven months later than mass variations. The phase difference between the steric SLV and the mass-induced SLV indicates that when the Red Sea gains the mass from inflow water in winter, the steric SLV fall, and vice versa in summer. In-situ bottom pressure records in the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. Furthermore, we compare the horizontal water mass flux in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE with that estimated from hydrographic observations.

  1. Compliant flooring to prevent fall-related injuries: a scoping review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachance, Chantelle C; Jurkowski, Michal P; Dymarz, Ania C; Mackey, Dawn C

    2016-08-16

    Fall-related injuries can have serious consequences for older adults, including increased risk of dependence in daily activities and mortality. Compliant flooring is a passive intervention that may reduce the incidence and severity of fall-related injuries in healthcare settings, including acute and long-term care, but few sites have implemented compliant flooring, in part because synthesised evidence about key performance aspects has not been available. We will conduct a scoping review to address the question: what is presented about the biomechanical efficacy, clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and workplace safety associated with compliant flooring systems that aim to prevent fall-related injuries? We will conduct a comprehensive and systematic literature search of academic databases (AgeLine, CINAHL, EBM Reviews, MEDLINE (Ovid), SportDiscus and Web of Science) and grey literature (clinical trial registries, theses/dissertations, abstracts/conference proceedings and relevant websites). 2 team members will independently screen records (first titles and abstracts, then full text) and extract data from included records. Numerical and narrative analyses will be presented by theme (biomechanical efficacy, clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, workplace safety). This scoping review responds to the information needs of healthcare decision-makers tasked with preventing fall-related injuries. This review will summarise evidence about compliant flooring as a potential intervention for preventing fall-related injuries in older adults and identify gaps in evidence and new avenues for research. Results will be especially useful in long-term care, but also applicable in acute care, assisted living and home care. We will disseminate the review's findings via open-access publications, conference presentations, a webinar, a Stakeholder Symposium and a Knowledge-to-Action Report. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not

  2. Incidence of fall-related injury among old people in mainland China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Juan; Long, Jianxiong; Ling, Weijun; Huang, Guifeng; Guo, Xiaojing; Su, Li

    2015-01-01

    The fall-related injuries of old people have attracted increasing attention particularly because of the continuous aging of the population. In this meta-analysis, we aim to present the incidence and sub-groups of fall-related injuries among old people in mainland China. A systematic electronic literature search was performed using four Chinese and two English databases. The selected papers were cross-sectional studies in mainland China, the participants of which were recruited based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using questionnaire. The risk of bias was assessed using the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE), and the pooled rates were estimated by DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. A total of 40 cross-sectional studies that focused on 128,691 participants who were aged 60 years were included in this review. On the one hand, 54.95 per 1000 (overall), 45.94 per 1000 (males), 78.89 per 1000 (females), 25.95 per 1000 (60 years to 69 years), 33.03 per 1000 (70 years to 79 years), and 62.74 per 1000 (≥80 years) were estimated for the pooled incidence of fall-related injury. On the other hand, 91.72 per 1000 (overall), 94.54 per 1000 (males), and 144.93 per 1000 (females) were estimated for person-time incidence of fall-related injury. Higher incidence rates were observed in females compared with males, and these rates continued to increase along with age. A moderate level of fall-related injuries was observed among old people in mainland China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Cambro-ordovician sea-level fluctuations and sequence boundaries: The missing record and the evolution of new taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehnert, O.; Miller, J.F.; Leslie, Stephen A.; Repetski, J.E.; Ethington, Raymond L.

    2005-01-01

    The evolution of early Palaeozoic conodont faunas shows a clear connection to sea-level changes. One way that this connection manifests itself is that thick successions of carbonates are missing beneath major sequence boundaries due to karstification and erosion. From this observation arises the question of how many taxa have been lost from different conodont lineages in these incomplete successions. Although many taxa suffered extinction due to the environmental stresses associated with falling sea-levels, some must have survived in these extreme conditions. The number of taxa missing in the early Palaeozoic tropics always will be unclear, but it will be even more difficult to evaluate the missing record in detrital successions of higher latitudes. A common pattern in the evolution of Cambrian-Ordovician conodont lineages is appearances of new species at sea-level rises and disappearances at sea-level drops. This simple picture can be complicated by intervals that consistently have no representatives of a particular lineage, even after extensive sampling of the most complete sections. Presumably the lineages survived in undocumented refugia. In this paper, we give examples of evolution in Cambrian-Ordovician shallowmarine conodont faunas and highlight problems of undiscovered or truly missing segments of lineages. ?? The Palaeontological Association.

  4. Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic

  5. Geodetic infrastructure at the Barcelona harbour for sea level monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Benjamin, Juan Jose; Gili, Josep; Lopez, Rogelio; Tapia, Ana; Pros, Francesc; Palau, Vicenc; Perez, Begona

    2015-04-01

    The presentation is directed to the description of the actual geodetic infrastructure of Barcelona harbour with three tide gauges of different technologies for sea level determination and contribution to regional sea level rise and understanding past and present sea level rise in the Barcelona harbour. It is intended that the overall system will constitute a CGPS Station of the ESEAS (European Sea Level) and TIGA (GPS Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring) networks. At Barcelona harbour there is a MIROS radar tide gauge belonging to Puertos del Estado (Spanish Harbours).The radar sensor is over the water surface, on a L-shaped structure which elevates it a few meters above the quay shelf. 1-min data are transmitted to the ENAGAS Control Center by cable and then sent each 1 min to Puertos del Estado by e-mail. The information includes wave forescast (mean period, significant wave height, sea level, etc.This sensor also measures agitation and sends wave parameters each 20 min. There is a GPS station Leica Geosystems GRX1200 GG Pro and antenna AX 1202 GG. The Control Tower of the Port of Barcelona is situated in the North dike of the so-called Energy Pier in the Barcelona harbor (Spain). This tower has different kind of antennas for navigation monitoring and a GNSS permanent station. As the tower is founded in reclaimed land, and because its metallic structure, the 50 m building is subjected to diverse movements, including periodic fluctuations due to temperature changes. In this contribution the 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 the necessary monitoring campaigns are described. In the framework of a Spanish Space Project, the instrumentation of sea level measurements has been improved by providing the Barcelona site with a radar tide gauge Datamar 2000C from Geonica S.L. in June 2014 near an acoustic tide gauge from the Barcelona Harbour installed in 2013. Precision levelling has been made several times in the last two years because the tower is founded in reclaimed land and

  6. Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    1(low vulnerability) and 2 (moderate vulnerability), respectively. In 2050s, 88.8 %, 10.7 % and 0.5 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2, respectively. In 2100s, 85.7 %, 7.3 % , 2.0 % and 5.0 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3(high vulnerability), respectively. At the A1F1 scenario of sea level rise rate of 0.59 cm/a, 91.0 %, 8.7 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands in 2030s were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2 , respectively. In 2050s, 86.9 %, 10.5 % , 2.4 % and 0.2 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. In 2100s, 82.4 %, 7.1 % , 2.4 % and 8.1 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The spatiotemporal occurrences of vulnerability were mainly where the subsidence rate is relatively higher and the sedimentation rate is lower or even negative. The results from this study indicated that the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, reducing sediment discharge could give rise to the high risk of a considerable decrease or even habitat loss of coastal wetland in the Yangtze Estuary (particularly in 2050s and 2100s). Therefore some mitigation measures should be considered in the future, including management of sedimentation, reducing land subsidence, recreating and extending wetland habitat, and controlling reclamation.

  7. Effect of a program of multifactorial fall prevention on health-related quality of life, functional ability, fear of falling and psychological well-being. A randomized controlled trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vind, Ane Bonnerup; Andersen, Hanne Elkjaer; Pedersen, Kirsten Damgaard

    2010-01-01

    Falls among older people are associated with injury, functional decline, fear of falling, and depression. This study aims to evaluate the effect of multifactorial fall prevention on function, fear of falling, health-related quality of life and psychological well-being....

  8. Identification of Transportation Infrastructure at Risk Due To Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence of Land In Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tewari, S.; Palmer, W.; Manning, F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency/intensity of storms, increase in precipitation and storm surges. The resilience of transportation infrastructure located in Louisiana's coastal zone, against storm surges and climatic sea-level rise is critical. The net change in sea-level is affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. There are many places in coastal Louisiana that have a high subsidence rate. The subsidence could be related to excess extraction activities of oil and water, natural and/or human induced compaction, and tectonic movement. Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking, including parts of the Gulf Coast. For example, coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years, which is about twice the global rate. Subsiding land in the Gulf area worsens the effects of relative sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding in cities, inhabited islands, and tidal wetlands. The research team is investigating the trends for sea-level rise and land subsidence in coastal region of Louisiana. The variability in storm surges and its potential implication on the transportation infrastructure in the region is the focus of the study. The spatial maps will be created for spatial trends. This is extremely useful in being prepared for long-term natural hazards. The results of this study will be helpful to LADOTD and infrastructure managers and officials who are tasked with resiliency planning and management. Research results will also directly benefit university researchers in the state, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority and LADOTD/LTRC through collaborative activity which will educate both professionals and the

  9. De novo characterization of fall dormant and nondormant alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) leaf transcriptome and identification of candidate genes related to fall dormancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Senhao; Shi, Yinghua; Cheng, Ningning; Du, Hongqi; Fan, Wenna; Wang, Chengzhang

    2015-01-01

    Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) is one of the most widely cultivated perennial forage legumes worldwide. Fall dormancy is an adaptive character related to the biomass production and winter survival in alfalfa. The physiological, biochemical and molecular mechanisms causing fall dormancy and the related genes have not been well studied. In this study, we sequenced two standard varieties of alfalfa (dormant and non-dormant) at two time points and generated approximately 160 million high quality paired-end sequence reads using sequencing by synthesis (SBS) technology. The de novo transcriptome assembly generated a set of 192,875 transcripts with an average length of 856 bp representing about 165.1 Mb of the alfalfa leaf transcriptome. After assembly, 111,062 (57.6%) transcripts were annotated against the NCBI non-redundant database. A total of 30,165 (15.6%) transcripts were mapped to 323 Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways. We also identified 41,973 simple sequence repeats, which can be used to generate markers for alfalfa, and 1,541 transcription factors were identified across 1,350 transcripts. Gene expression between dormant and non-dormant alfalfa at different time points were performed, and we identified several differentially expressed genes potentially related to fall dormancy. The Gene Ontology and pathways information were also identified. We sequenced and assembled the leaf transcriptome of alfalfa related to fall dormancy, and also identified some genes of interest involved in the fall dormancy mechanism. Thus, our research focused on studying fall dormancy in alfalfa through transcriptome sequencing. The sequencing and gene expression data generated in this study may be used further to elucidate the complete mechanisms governing fall dormancy in alfalfa.

  10. Decadal trends in deep ocean salinity and regional effects on steric sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkey, S. G.; Llovel, W.

    2017-12-01

    We present deep (below 2000 m) and abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean salinity trends from the 1990s through the 2010s and assess the role of deep salinity in local and global sea level budgets. Deep salinity trends are assessed using all deep basins with available full-depth, high-quality hydrographic section data that have been occupied two or more times since the 1980s through either the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Hydrographic Program or the Global Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP). All salinity data is calibrated to standard seawater and any intercruise offsets applied. While the global mean deep halosteric contribution to sea level rise is close to zero (-0.017 +/- 0.023 mm/yr below 4000 m), there is a large regional variability with the southern deep basins becoming fresher and northern deep basins becoming more saline. This meridional gradient in the deep salinity trend reflects different mechanisms driving the deep salinity variability. The deep Southern Ocean is freshening owing to a recent increased flux of freshwater to the deep ocean. Outside of the Southern Ocean, the deep salinity and temperature changes are tied to isopycnal heave associated with a falling of deep isopycnals in recent decades. Therefore, regions of the ocean with a deep salinity minimum are experiencing both a halosteric contraction with a thermosteric expansion. While the thermosteric expansion is larger in most cases, in some regions the halosteric compensates for as much as 50% of the deep thermal expansion, making a significant contribution to local sea level rise budgets.

  11. A process for developing and revising a learning progression on sea level rise using learners' explanations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Robert Christopher

    The purpose of this study was to explore the process of developing a learning progression (LP) on constructing explanations about sea level rise. I used a learning progressions theoretical framework informed by the situated cognition learning theory. During this exploration, I explicitly described my decision-making process as I developed and revised a hypothetical learning progression. Correspondingly, my research question was: What is a process by which a hypothetical learning progression on sea level rise is developed into an empirical learning progression using learners' explanations? To answer this question, I used a qualitative descriptive single case study with multiple embedded cases (Yin, 2014) that employed analytic induction (Denzin, 1970) to analyze data collected on middle school learners (grades 6-8). Data sources included written artifacts, classroom observations, and semi-structured interviews. Additionally, I kept a researcher journal to track my thinking about the learning progression throughout the research study. Using analytic induction to analyze collected data, I developed eight analytic concepts: participant explanation structures varied widely, global warming and ice melt cause sea level rise, participants held alternative conceptions about sea level rise, participants learned about thermal expansion as a fundamental aspect of sea level rise, participants learned to incorporate authentic scientific data, participants' mental models of the ocean varied widely, sea ice melt contributes to sea level rise, and participants held vague and alternative conceptions about how pollution impacts the ocean. I started with a hypothetical learning progression, gathered empirical data via various sources (especially semi-structured interviews), revised the hypothetical learning progression in response to those data, and ended with an empirical learning progression comprising six levels of learner thinking. As a result of developing an empirically based LP

  12. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  13. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Cronin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1 and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1, and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1. Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.. Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1 followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  14. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor; Jakobsson, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Deglacial (12.8-10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; ˜ 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of ˜ 125-130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ˜ 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42-47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  15. Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

  16. Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level (MSL rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.

  17. Sea level reconstruction from satellite altimetry and tide gauge data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2012-01-01

    Ocean satellite altimetry has provided global sets of sea level data for the last two decades, allowing determination of spatial patterns in global sea level. For reconstructions going back further than this period, tide gauge data can be used as a proxy. We examine different methods of combining...... for better sensitivity analysis with respect to spatial distribution, and tide gauge data are available around the Arctic Ocean, which may be important for a later high-latitude reconstruction....... satellite altimetry and tide gauge data using optimal weighting of tide gauge data, linear regression and EOFs, including automatic quality checks of the tide gauge time series. We attempt to augment the model using various proxies such as climate indices like the NAO and PDO, and investigate alternative...

  18. Fall-related gait characteristics on the treadmill and in daily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rispens, Sietse M; Van Dieën, Jaap H; Van Schooten, Kimberley S; Cofré Lizama, L Eduardo; Daffertshofer, Andreas; Beek, Peter J; Pijnappels, Mirjam

    2016-02-02

    Body-worn sensors allow assessment of gait characteristics that are predictive of fall risk, both when measured during treadmill walking and in daily life. The present study aimed to assess differences as well as associations between fall-related gait characteristics measured on a treadmill and in daily life. In a cross-sectional study, trunk accelerations of 18 older adults (72.3 ± 4.5 years) were recorded during walking on a treadmill (Dynaport Hybrid sensor) and during daily life (Dynaport MoveMonitor). A comprehensive set of 32 fall-risk-related gait characteristics was estimated and compared between both settings. For 25 gait characteristics, a systematic difference between treadmill and daily-life measurements was found. Gait was more variable, less symmetric, and less stable during daily life. Fourteen characteristics showed a significant correlation between treadmill and daily-life measurements, including stride time and regularity (0.48  0.25). Gait characteristics revealed less stable, less symmetric, and more variable gait during daily life than on a treadmill, yet about half of the characteristics were significantly correlated between conditions. These results suggest that daily-life gait analysis is sensitive to static personal factors (i.e., physical and cognitive capacity) as well as dynamic situational factors (i.e., behavior and environment), which may both represent determinants of fall risk.

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