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Sample records for relative sea-level falls

  1. Postglacial relative sea level change at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island (West Antarctic

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    K. V. Polishchuk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis and integration of data obtained in our field and laboratory investigations of 2008–2012 together with results of previous paleogeographic studies were conducted to reveal parameters and factors of the post-glacial changes in the relative sea-level on the Fildes Peninsula and the King George Island. Results of dating of organic material taken from cross-sections of Quaternary deposits, data on morphology of marine landforms as well as on bottom sediments in lakes were used to construct a curve of changes in the relative sea-level.Our research has shown that the rapid rise of relative sea level in the area (since the beginning of the Holocene decelerated about 8000 years BP, achieving its maximum about 7000 years BP. This was followed by the fall of relative sea-level (the land elevation by 18–20  m in total, and it was characterized by relatively high rate of fall during periods of 6000– 5000 years BP, 4000–2500 years BP, and during the last 1500 years; the rate decreased in 5000–4000 years BP and 2500– 1600 years BP. The changes in relative sea level in this region were determined by the following factors: the eustatic component of the global changes in sea-level and, possibly, oscillations in the global sea level of another nature; local parameters of the Last glacial maximum; a course of the Peninsula deglaciation; regional physical characteristics of the Earth's crust and the mantle substances; local tectonic processes, including the isostatic rebound. Since the beginning of the Holocene up to about 7000 years BP, the main contribution to changes of the relative sea-level in this area was made by the global eustatic factor. The subsequent fall of the relative sea-level (elevation of the Peninsula surface proceeded under condition of reduced role of the eustatic factor and predominance of other factors.

  2. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia.

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    Kemp, Andrew C; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Mann, Michael E; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2011-07-05

    We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

  3. Meteoric calcite cementation: diagenetic response to relative fall in sea-level and effect on porosity and permeability, Las Negras area, southeastern Spain

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    Li, Zhaoqi; Goldstein, Robert H.; Franseen, Evan K.

    2017-03-01

    A dolomitized Upper Miocene carbonate system in southeast Spain contains extensive upper and lower zones of calcite cementation that cut across the stratigraphy. Cement textures including isopachous and circumgranular, which are consistent with phreatic-zone cementation. Cements in the upper cemented zone are non-luminescent, whereas those in the lower cemented zone exhibit multiple bands of luminescent and non-luminescent cements. In the upper cemented zone, isotopic data show two meteoric calcite lines (MCL) with mean δ18O at - 5.1‰ and - 5.8‰ VPDB, whereas no clear MCL is defined in the lower cemented zone where mean δ18O for calcite cement is at - 6.7‰ VPDB. δ13C values in both cement zones are predominantly negative, ranging from - 10 to + 2‰ VPDB, suggestive of carbon from soil gas or decayed organics. Measurements of Tm ice in primary fluid inclusions yield a mode of 0.0 °C in both zones, indicating calcite cementation from fresh water. These two zones define the positions of two different paleo-water tables that formed during a relative sea-level fall and erosional downcutting during the Plio-Pleistocene. The upper cemented zone pre-dated the lower cemented zone on the basis of known relative sea-level history. Meteoric calcite cementation reduced porosity and permeability, but measured values are inconsistent with simple filling of open pore space. Each texture, boundstone, grainstone, packstone, wackestone, produces a different relationship between percent calcite cement and porosity/permeability. Distribution of cements may be predictable on the basis of known sea-level history, and the effect of the cementation can be incorporated into subsurface geomodels by defining surfaces of rock boundaries that separate cemented zones from uncemented zones, and applying texture-specific relationships among cementation, porosity and permeability.

  4. Evolution of the Rømø barrier island in the Wadden Sea: Impacts of sea-level change on coastal morphodynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter

    , and falling sea-level, whereas wash-over sedimentation was promoted during periods of rapid sea-level rise when shoreface, beach and coastal dune deposits were reworked. In contrast, lagoonal sedimentation has been relatively continuous and kept pace with the long-term Holocene sea-level rise. Our findings...

  5. Improved simulation of Antarctic sea ice due to the radiative effects of falling snow

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    Li, J.-L. F.; Richardson, Mark; Hong, Yulan; Lee, Wei-Liang; Wang, Yi-Hui; Yu, Jia-Yuh; Fetzer, Eric; Stephens, Graeme; Liu, Yinghui

    2017-08-01

    Southern Ocean sea-ice cover exerts critical control on local albedo and Antarctic precipitation, but simulated Antarctic sea-ice concentration commonly disagrees with observations. Here we show that the radiative effects of precipitating ice (falling snow) contribute substantially to this discrepancy. Many models exclude these radiative effects, so they underestimate both shortwave albedo and downward longwave radiation. Using two simulations with the climate model CESM1, we show that including falling-snow radiative effects improves the simulations relative to cloud properties from CloudSat-CALIPSO, radiation from CERES-EBAF and sea-ice concentration from passive microwave sensors. From 50-70°S, the simulated sea-ice-area bias is reduced by 2.12 × 106 km2 (55%) in winter and by 1.17 × 106 km2 (39%) in summer, mainly because increased wintertime longwave heating restricts sea-ice growth and so reduces summer albedo. Improved Antarctic sea-ice simulations will increase confidence in projected Antarctic sea level contributions and changes in global warming driven by long-term changes in Southern Ocean feedbacks.

  6. Geriatric fall-related injuries.

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: The majority of geriatric fall-related injuries were due to fall from the same level at home. Assessment of risk fac- tors for falls including home hazards is essential for prevention of geriatric fall-related injuries. Keywords: Accidental fall, geriatrics, injury, trauma registry. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ahs.v16i2.24.

  7. Eustatic and Relative Sea Level Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Stocchi, P.; Vacchi, M.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level changes can be driven by either variationsin the masses or volume of the oceans, or bychanges of the land with respect to the sea surface. Inthe first case, a sea level change is defined ‘eustatic’;otherwise, it is defined ‘relative’. Several techniques canbe used to observe changes in sea

  8. Assessing risk of navigational hazard from sea-level-related datum in the South West of Java Sea, Indonesia

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    Poerbandono

    2017-07-01

    This paper assesses the presence of navigational hazards due to underestimation of charted depths originated from an establishment of a sea-level-related reference plane, i.e. datum. The study domain is situated in one of Indonesia's densest marine traffic, SW Java Sea, Indonesia. The assessment is based on the comparison of the authorized Chart Datum (CD), being uniformly located at 0.6 m below Mean Sea Level (MSL), and a spatially varying Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) generated for the purpose of this research. Hazards are considered here as the deviation of LAT from CD and quantified as the ratio of LAT -CD deviation with respect to the allowable Total Vertical Uncertainty (TVU), i.e. the international standard for accuracy of depth information on nautical charts. Underestimation of charted depth is expected for the case that LAT falls below CD. Such a risk magnifies with decreasing depths, as well as the increasing volume of traffic and draught of the vessel. It is found that most of the domain is in the interior of risk-free zone from using uniform CD. As much as 0.08 and 0.19 parts of the area are in zones where the uncertainty of CD contributes respectively to 50% and 30% of Total Vertical Uncertainty. These are zones where the hazard of navigation is expected to increase due to underestimated lowest tidal level.

  9. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

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    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

    2013-04-01

    Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

  10. Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

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    Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  11. Mangrove Sedimentation and Response to Relative Sea-Level Rise.

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    Woodroffe, C D; Rogers, K; McKee, K L; Lovelock, C E; Mendelssohn, I A; Saintilan, N

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  12. Reconstructing Common Era relative sea-level change on the Gulf Coast of Florida

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    Gerlach, Matthew J.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Moyer, Ryan P.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Cahill, Niamh

    2017-01-01

    To address a paucity of Common Era data in the Gulf of Mexico, we reconstructed ~ 1.1 m of relative sea-level (RSL) rise over the past ~ 2000 years at Little Manatee River (Gulf Coast of Florida, USA). We applied a regional-scale foraminiferal transfer function to fossil assemblages preserved in a core of salt-marsh peat and organic silt that was dated using radiocarbon and recognition of pollution, 137Cs and pollen chronohorizons. Our proxy reconstruction was combined with tide-gauge data from four nearby sites spanning 1913–2014 CE. Application of an Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model to the combined proxy and instrumental dataset demonstrates that RSL fell from ~ 350 to 100 BCE, before rising continuously to present. This initial RSL fall was likely the result of local-scale processes (e.g., silting up of a tidal flat or shallow sub-tidal shoal) as salt-marsh development at the site began. Since ~ 0 CE, we consider the reconstruction to be representative of regional-scale RSL trends. We removed a linear rate of 0.3 mm/yr from the RSL record using the EIV-IGP model to estimate climate-driven sea-level trends and to facilitate comparison among sites. This analysis demonstrates that since ~ 0 CE sea level did not deviate significantly from zero until accelerating continuously from ~ 1500 CE to present. Sea level was rising at 1.33 mm/yr in 1900 CE and accelerated until 2014 CE when a rate of 2.02 mm/yr was attained, which is the fastest, century-scale trend in the ~ 2000-year record. Comparison to existing reconstructions from the Gulf coast of Louisiana and the Atlantic coast of northern Florida reveal similar sea-level histories at all three sites. We explored the influence of compaction and fluvial processes on our reconstruction and concluded that compaction was likely insignificant. Fluvial processes were also likely insignificant, but further proxy evidence is needed to fully test this hypothesis. Our results

  13. Geriatric fall-related injuries.

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    Hefny, Ashraf F; Abbas, Alaa K; Abu-Zidan, Fikri M

    2016-06-01

    Falls are the leading cause of geriatric injury. We aimed to study the anatomical distribution, severity, and outcome of geriatric fall-related injuries in order to give recommendations regarding their prevention. All injured patients with an age ≥ 60 years who were admitted to Al-Ain Hospital or died in the Emergency Department due to falls were prospectively studied over a four year period. We studied 92 patients. Fifty six of them (60.9%) were females. The mean (standard deviation) of age was 72.2 (9.6) years. Seventy three (89%) of all incidents occurred at home. Eighty three patients (90.2%) fell on the same level. The median (range) ISS was 4 (1-16) and the median GCS (range) was 15 (12-15). The lower limb was the most common injured body region (63%). There were no statistical significant differences between males and females regarding age, ISS, and hospital stay (p = 0.85, p = 0.57, and p = 0.35 respectively). The majority of geriatric fall-related injuries were due to fall from the same level at home. Assessment of risk factors for falls including home hazards is essential for prevention of geriatric fall-related injuries.

  14. Relative Sea Level, Tidal Range, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor from 1825 to 2016

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    Talke, S. A.; Kemp, A.; Woodruff, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Long time series of water-level measurements made by tide gauges provide a rich and valuable observational history of relative sea-level change, the frequency and height of extreme water levels and evolving tidal regimes. However, relatively few locations have available tide-gauge records longer than 100 years and most of these places are in northern Europe. This spatio-temporal distribution hinders efforts to understand global-, regional- and local-scale trends. Using newly-discovered archival measurements, we constructed a 200 year, instrumental record of water levels, tides, and storm surges in Boston Harbor. We detail the recovery, datum reconstruction, digitization, quality assurance, and analysis of this extended observational record. Local, decadally-averaged relative sea-level rose by 0.28 ± 0.05 m since the 1820s, with an acceleration of 0.023 ±0.009 mm/yr2. Approximately 0.13 ± 0.02 m of the observed RSL rise occurred due to ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment, and the remainder occurred due to changes in ocean mass and volume associated with the onset of modern mean sea-level rise. Change-point analysis of the new relative sea level record confirms that anthropogenic rise began in 1924-1932, which is in agreement with global mean sea level estimates from the global tide gauge network. Tide range decreased by 5.5% between 1830 and 1910, likely due in large part to anthropogenic development. Storm tides in Boston Harbor are produced primarily by extratropical storms during the November-April time frame. The three largest storm tides occurred in 1851, 1909, and 1978. Because 90% of the top 20 storm tides since 1825 occurred during a spring tide, the secular change in tide range contributes to a slight reduction in storm tide magnitudes. However, non-stationarity in storm hazard was historically driven primarily by local relative sea-level rise; a modest 0.2 m increase in relative sea level reduces the 100 year high water mark to a once-in-10 year event.

  15. The Role of Relative Sea Level Changes in Diagenetic Processes and Stacking Pattern of Kangan Formation Sediments in one of the Persian Gulf Fields

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    حسن اشراقی

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Lower to Middle Triassic aged Kangan Formation is one of the most significant carbonate gas reservoirs in Iranian territory. In this study, thin sections data were used to recognize microfacies, sedimentary environments and the interaction between diagenetic processes and facies stacking pattern in a sequence stratigraphic framework. Petrographic studies leaded to recognition of eight microfacies related to three facies belts including tidal flat, lagoon and shoal. Moreover, the observed microfacies patterns indicate a ramp carbonate platform as depositional environment for this carbonate succession. The main diagenetic processes of Kangan Formation include micritization, isopachous and fibrous cements (primary marine diagenesis, dissolution and moldic porosity (meteoric diagenesis, compaction and stylolitization (secondary diagenesis. Based on facies changes, two third-order sequences were specified, each of which could be divided into two systems tracts including transgressive systems tract (TST and highstand systems tract (HST. In addition, sequence boundaries were identified with bedded, massive and nodular anhydrite. These facies, that are indicative of maximum sea level fall, were deposited in hypersaline lagoons. There is a close association between diagenetic processes and relative sea level changes of Kangan Formation, so that diagenetic processes of studied succession have been controlled by sediments stacking patterns during transgression and regression of sea level. During the transgression, the main diagenetic processes in shoal facies are marine cementation and dolomitization in lagoon and tidal flat facies. However, during the sea level fall, these processes include dissolution in shoal facies and dolomitization, anhydrite nodule formation and cementation in lagoon and tidal flat settings.

  16. How deep-sea wood falls sustain chemosynthetic life.

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    Christina Bienhold

    Full Text Available Large organic food falls to the deep sea--such as whale carcasses and wood logs--are known to serve as stepping stones for the dispersal of highly adapted chemosynthetic organisms inhabiting hot vents and cold seeps. Here we investigated the biogeochemical and microbiological processes leading to the development of sulfidic niches by deploying wood colonization experiments at a depth of 1690 m in the Eastern Mediterranean for one year. Wood-boring bivalves of the genus Xylophaga played a key role in the degradation of the wood logs, facilitating the development of anoxic zones and anaerobic microbial processes such as sulfate reduction. Fauna and bacteria associated with the wood included types reported from other deep-sea habitats including chemosynthetic ecosystems, confirming the potential role of large organic food falls as biodiversity hot spots and stepping stones for vent and seep communities. Specific bacterial communities developed on and around the wood falls within one year and were distinct from freshly submerged wood and background sediments. These included sulfate-reducing and cellulolytic bacterial taxa, which are likely to play an important role in the utilization of wood by chemosynthetic life and other deep-sea animals.

  17. How Deep-Sea Wood Falls Sustain Chemosynthetic Life

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    Bienhold, Christina; Pop Ristova, Petra; Wenzhöfer, Frank; Dittmar, Thorsten; Boetius, Antje

    2013-01-01

    Large organic food falls to the deep sea – such as whale carcasses and wood logs – are known to serve as stepping stones for the dispersal of highly adapted chemosynthetic organisms inhabiting hot vents and cold seeps. Here we investigated the biogeochemical and microbiological processes leading to the development of sulfidic niches by deploying wood colonization experiments at a depth of 1690 m in the Eastern Mediterranean for one year. Wood-boring bivalves of the genus Xylophaga played a key role in the degradation of the wood logs, facilitating the development of anoxic zones and anaerobic microbial processes such as sulfate reduction. Fauna and bacteria associated with the wood included types reported from other deep-sea habitats including chemosynthetic ecosystems, confirming the potential role of large organic food falls as biodiversity hot spots and stepping stones for vent and seep communities. Specific bacterial communities developed on and around the wood falls within one year and were distinct from freshly submerged wood and background sediments. These included sulfate-reducing and cellulolytic bacterial taxa, which are likely to play an important role in the utilization of wood by chemosynthetic life and other deep-sea animals. PMID:23301092

  18. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

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    Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

    2018-03-01

    Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the

  19. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

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    S. Esselborn

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year, and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ, the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS, and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC. The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr−1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr−1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test

  20. Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

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    Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

    2018-05-01

    Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

  1. Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

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    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2015-05-01

    Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  2. Sea level trend and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

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    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5-25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian-Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian-western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Nino events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Nina episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986-2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr-1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr-1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates

  3. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

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    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  4. Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

    2016-02-01

    Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021

  5. Sedimentology of middle ordovician carbonates in the Argentine precordillera: evidence of regional relative sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, M.; Eberlein, S.; Lehnert, O.

    1993-07-01

    The Las Aguaditas Formation in the Argentine Precordillera of San Juan is the only Ordovician carbonate sequence deposited on a slope. Spiculites, mudstones and calcisiltites represent the autochthonous sediments, characterized by a fine lamination, rare fossils and their dark colour. The pelagic fauna consists of rare radiolarians/calcispheres, trinucleid trilobites, graptolites and conodonts. The latter are typical of an open marine environment and proved a Llanvirn—Llandeilo age for the Las Aguaditas Formation. In the upper part of the succession there are several intercalations of megabreccias. Their thickness decreases from about 20 to 4 m towards the top of the formation, accompanied by an increasing amount of carbonate turbidites. The clasts of the breccias are derived from the slope as well as the platform. Each of the megabreccia horizons represents a system of channels, lobes and interchannel deposits, which together form a slope apron. On top of the lower breccia a small biostrome developed, where bryozoans and crinoids are preserved in an autochthonous position. Sedimentation of the Las Aguaditas Formation started with the drowning of the underlying carbonate platform (San Juan limestones). Near the Arenig-Llanvirn boundary, a rapid ecstatic sea-level rise led to the deposition of graptolitic black shales and mudstones. Upwards, allochthonous carbonates become increasingly abundant. The onset of megabreccia deposition coincides with a major relative sea-level fall, caused by block movements in connection with rifting. The subsequent transition from breccia formation towards turbiditic sedimentation corresponds to an environmental shift from the slope towards the toe of slope and basin and marks a renewed moderate sea-level rise.

  6. Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry, GRACE, in-situ bottom pressure records, and hydrographic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wei; Lemoine, Jean-Michel; Zhong, Min; Xu, Houze

    2014-05-01

    An annual amplitude of ~18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from steric-corrected altimetry and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites from 2003 to 2011, which dominates the mean sea level in the region. Seawater mass variations here generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The steric component of SLV calculated from oceanographic temperature and salinity data is relatively small and peaks about seven months later than mass variations. The phase difference between the steric SLV and the mass-induced SLV indicates that when the Red Sea gains the mass from inflow water in winter, the steric SLV fall, and vice versa in summer. In-situ bottom pressure records in the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. Furthermore, we compare the horizontal water mass flux in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE with that estimated from hydrographic observations.

  7. Relative sea-level change in the central Cyclades (Greece) since the Early Bronze Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draganits, E.

    2012-04-01

    The Aegean is a focus of important cultural achievements in Europe since the Neolithic period. The resulting abundance of archaeological remains, many of them below sea-level represent an advantageous area for the study of local relative sea-level change. We have carried out detailed mapping of Despotiko Island (SW of Antiparos) and its surrounding. Despotiko is situated almost exactly in the center of the Cyclades (as defined nowadays), more so than Delos, and therefore is very well suited for sea-level studies of the Cyclades. This beneficial location, combined with a spacious and protected bay, additionally may explain its former importance as stepping-stone in the Aegean Sea. The island is uninhabited at present, but Early Bronze Age settlement sites and graveyards as well as a large Archaic sanctuary proof its former importance. The sanctuary is situated on a gently northeast dipping slope in the northeast part of Despotiko, in range of sight of the Órmos Despotiko. Since 1997 large parts of this important sanctuary have been excavated during several excavation campaigns. Tectonically, Despotiko, Antiparos and Paros, belong to the Attic-Cycladic Crystalline of the Central Hellenides, a stack of metamorphic tectonic nappes, mainly comprising variable types of gneiss, schist, marble and amphibolite, and tectonic slices of unmetamorphosed sediments on top, separated by low-angle normal faults from the metamorphic units below. Submerged archaeological structures at the sea bottom of the Órmos Despotiko, a Classical marble inscription from the sanctuary and partly submerged agriculture trenches at the east coast Despotiko, indicate that the relative sea-level in this area was some 3 m lower during the Early Bronze Age and still more than 1 m lower during Classical time. These values of relative sea-level rise indicate a subsidence component additional to the global sea-level rise in the investigated time period. Neglecting possible vertical tectonic movements and

  8. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  9. Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

    Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

  10. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2015-01-22

    Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

  11. Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Change from Coral Microatolls, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

    2017-12-01

    Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the Anthropocene. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level changes in French Polynesia encompassing the last 6,000 years were reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to

  12. Detailed Tropical Sea Level Record Spanning the Younger Dryas Chronozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Variability in sea level is a fundamental measure of past changes in continental ice volume and provides an important benchmark to test climate change hypotheses. Records of the most recent deglaciation show two pulses of accelerated sea-level rise (Meltwater Pulses 1A and 1B) separated by an interval of slower sea level rise. The Younger Dryas chronozone falls within the interval between MWP 1A and 1B. It was first described over 100 years ago and remains one of the most studied periods in Earth’s history. The Younger Dryas was originally constrained with 14C dating to the interval between 11,000 and 10,000 14C years BP, which converts to 13,000 to 11,640 calendar years BP. The climatic expression of the Younger Dryas was most pronounced in the circum North Atlantic where climate proxies returned in some regions to near glacial values. Interpretations of the Younger Dryas’ significance range from a catastrophic global cooling event accompanied by Northern hemisphere ice sheet growth to simply regional changes in ocean and air mass mixing zones confined mainly to the North Atlantic. A detailed sea level record containing the interval from the end of MWP 1A to the beginning of MWP 1B (~14,000 to 11,300 years BP) was generated using 26 new U/Th dates from our 2007 Barbados offshore drilling expedition combined with our 1988 expedition measurements. 16 of these dates fall within the Younger Dryas Chronozone. Younger Dryas sea level positions were based on Acropora palmata samples from 3 overlapping and contemporaneous offshore drill cores (RGF 12 and BBDS 9 & 10) and corrected for minor tectonic uplift. From 14,000 to 11,300 years BP, sea level rose from ~81 to 56.5 m below present sea level with an initial rate of 10 m/kyr that decreased smoothly to <5 m/kyr at the base of MWP 1B. At the beginning of the Younger Dryas, sea level was at 69 m below present and rose 8 m by the end of this interval. In the context of the Barbados sea level record, the Younger Dryas

  13. Holocene sea-level fluctuation in the southern hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isla, Federico Ignacio

    If rising sea levels dominate in the northern hemisphere (NH), falling or fluctuating sea levels predominate in the southern hemisphere (SH). Endogenic processes (tectonics, isostasy or geoidal changes) could explain local or regional mean sea level (MSL) fluctuations but not an hemispherical one. Evidence from South America, Africa, Antarctica, Australia and the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggest that the Holocene transgression rose above the present MSL, in higher latitudes before the tropics. By plotting latitude against the age of MSL arrival at present coasts, good correlation is observed. Oceanic salinity mixing has been already proposed to explain this mid-Holocene sea-level fluctuation. Climate could be the only factor responsible for this hemisphere-wide behavior of MSL. It has been suggested previously that the climate of the SH precedes that of the NH by 3000 years. The climatic optimum, or maximum warmth, occurred predominantly about 6000 BP in the NH, but about 10-9000 BP in the SH. Short-term climatic effects on the sea level (monsoons, southern oscillation/El Niño phenomena) should have significant occurrences during the past in the windiest oceanic hemisphere. This latitudinal trend in former MSL should be considered when using shorelines as reference points for measuring vertical crustal movements.

  14. MIS 5e relative sea-level changes in the Mediterranean Sea: Contribution of isostatic disequilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo; Lorscheid, Thomas; de Boer, Bas; Simms, Alexander R.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Pappalardo, Marta; Rovere, Alessio

    2018-04-01

    Sea-level indicators dated to the Last Interglacial, or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, have a twofold value. First, they can be used to constrain the melting of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in response to global warming scenarios. Second, they can be used to calculate the vertical crustal rates at active margins. For both applications, the contribution of glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to vertical displacement of sea-level indicators must be calculated. In this paper, we re-assess MIS 5e sea-level indicators at 11 Mediterranean sites that have been generally considered tectonically stable or affected by mild tectonics. These are found within a range of elevations of 2-10 m above modern mean sea level. Four sites are characterized by two separate sea-level stands, which suggest a two-step sea-level highstand during MIS 5e. Comparing field data with numerical modeling we show that (i) GIA is an important contributor to the spatial and temporal variability of the sea-level highstand during MIS 5e, (ii) the isostatic imbalance from the melting of the MIS 6 ice sheet can produce a >2.0 m sea-level highstand, and (iii) a two-step melting phase for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets reduces the differences between observations and predictions. Our results show that assumptions of tectonic stability on the basis of the MIS 5e records carry intrinsically large uncertainties, stemming either from uncertainties in field data and GIA models. The latter are propagated to either Holocene or Pleistocene sea-level reconstructions if tectonic rates are considered linear through time.

  15. Holocene relative sea-level changes from North America and the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Benjamin; Engelhart, Simon; Vacchi, Matteo; Khan, Nicole; Peltier, Dick; Roy, Keven

    2014-05-01

    Reconstructions of Holocene relative sea level (RSL) are important for identifying the ice equivalent meltwater contribution to sea-level change during deglaciation. Holocene RSL reconstructions from near, intermediate and far field regions enable the assessment of earth and ice parameters of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models. RSL reconstructions provide data for estimating rates of spatially variable and ongoing vertical land motion; a requirement for understanding the variation in modern and late Holocene sea level as recorded by instrumental and proxy records. Here we explain the methodology employed to reconstruct former sea levels, which follows the practice of the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP). We produce sea level index points from the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North America and the Caribbean. Index points are defined as the most reliable observations of former sea levels. They consist of an estimate of X (age) and Y (the position of former RSL). Where a suite of index points are developed for a locality or region, they describe changes in RSL through time and estimate rates of change. A valid index point must meet the following four criteria; (1) location of the sample is known; (2) the altitude of the sample (and the error associated with measuring that altitude) is known; (3) the indicative meaning (the relationship between the sample and a tide level) is estimated; and (4) the age of the sample, which is commonly radiocarbon dated is calibrated to sidereal years using the latest calibration curves. In total databases have over 2000 sea-level index points from formerly ice covered, uplifting regions of Canada, to the region of forebulge collapse along the subsiding mid-Atlantic and mid-Pacific coastlines of the United States, to the tropical regions of the Caribbean. Recent analyses of these new published databases have led to a further refinement of the most recent of the ICE-NG (VMX) series of global models of GIA. The records

  16. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  17. Fall-related activity avoidance in relation to a history of falls or near falls, fear of falling and disease severity in people with Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kader, Manzur; Iwarsson, Susanne; Odin, Per; Nilsson, Maria H

    2016-06-02

    There is limited knowledge concerning fall-related activity avoidance in people with Parkinson's disease (PD); such knowledge would be of importance for the development of more efficient PD-care and rehabilitation. This study aimed to examine how fall-related activity avoidance relates to a history of self-reported falls/near falls and fear of falling (FOF) as well as to disease severity in people with PD. Data were collected from 251 (61 % men) participants with PD; their median (min-max) age and PD duration were 70 (45-93) and 8 (1-43) years, respectively. A self-administered postal survey preceded a home visit which included observations, clinical tests and interview-administered questionnaires. Fall-related activity avoidance was assessed using the modified Survey of Activities and Fear of Falling in the Elderly (mSAFFE) as well as by using a dichotomous (Yes/No) question. Further dichotomous questions concerned: the presence of FOF and the history (past 6 months) of falls or near falls, followed by stating the number of incidents. Disease severity was assessed according to the Hoehn and Yahr (HY) stages. In the total sample (n = 251), 41 % of the participants reported fall-related activity avoidance; the median mSAFFE score was 22. In relation to a history of fall, the proportions of participants (p fall-related activity avoidance were: non-fallers (30 %), single fallers (50 %) and recurrent fallers, i.e. ≥ 2 falls (57 %). Among those that reported near falls (but no falls), 51 % (26 out of 51) reported fall-related activity avoidance. Of those that reported FOF, 70 % reported fall-related activity avoidance. Fall-related activity avoidance ranged from 24 % in the early PD-stage (HY I) to 74 % in the most severe stages (HY IV-V). Results indicate that fall-related activity avoidance may be related to a history of self-reported falls/near falls, FOF and disease severity in people with PD. Importantly, fall-related activity avoidance is

  18. Delayed recolonization of foraminifera in a suddenly flooded tidal (former freshwater) marsh in Oregon (USA): Implications for relative sea-level reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milker, Yvonne; Horton, Benjamin P.; Khan, Nicole S.; Nelson, Alan R.; Witter, Robert C.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Ewald, Michael; Brophy, Laura; Bridgeland, William T.

    2016-04-01

    Stratigraphic sequences beneath salt marshes along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast preserve 7000 years of plate-boundary earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. The sequences record rapid rises in relative sea level during regional coseismic subsidence caused by great earthquakes and gradual falls in relative sea level during interseismic uplift between earthquakes. These relative sea-level changes are commonly quantified using foraminiferal transfer functions with the assumption that foraminifera rapidly recolonize salt marshes and adjacent tidal flats following coseismic subsidence. The restoration of tidal inundation in the Ni-les'tun unit (NM unit) of the Bandon Marsh National Wildlife Refuge (Oregon), following extensive dike removal in August 2011, allowed us to directly observe changes in foraminiferal assemblages that occur during rapid "coseismic" (simulated by dike removal with sudden tidal flooding) and "interseismic" (stabilization of the marsh following flooding) relative sea-level changes analogous to those of past earthquake cycles. We analyzed surface sediment samples from 10 tidal stations at the restoration site (NM unit) from mudflat to high marsh, and 10 unflooded stations in the Bandon Marsh control site. Samples were collected shortly before and at 1- to 6-month intervals for 3 years after tidal restoration of the NM unit. Although tide gauge and grain-size data show rapid restoration of tides during approximately the first 3 months after dike removal, recolonization of the NM unit by foraminifera was delayed at least 10 months. Re-establishment of typical tidal foraminiferal assemblages, as observed at the control site, required 31 months after tidal restoration, with Miliammina fusca being the dominant pioneering species. If typical of past recolonizations, this delayed foraminiferal recolonization affects the accuracy of coseismic subsidence estimates during past earthquakes because significant postseismic uplift may shortly follow

  19. Relative Sea-Level Stability in Natuna Island, Indonesia, since 6400 yr BP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, J. X. W.; Meltzner, A. J.; Switzer, A.; Horton, B.; Ke, L.; Wang, X.; Bradley, S.; Natawidjaja, D.; Suwargadi, B. W.

    2017-12-01

    In order to understand the regional variability of relative sea level (RSL) due to glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and other natural influences, high-precision records of Holocene RSL on the Sunda Shelf are required. Accurate estimates of past RSL at a variety of locations allow us to validate geophysical and climate models, and provide context for understanding modern RSL change in the face of global climate change. For the aforementioned purposes, we surveyed and dated coral microatoll colonies, which are precise RSL proxy archives, from Natuna Island in Indonesia. Our analysis of 11 coral microatoll elevations from a total of four sites on Natuna Island is constrained in time by a minimum of one radiocarbon date and one U-Th age on each microatoll. The distribution of ages and elevations indicates that RSL was relatively stable from 6400 to 1400 yr BP at 0.3-0.6 m higher than present, before a more recent fall to current levels. The radiocarbon and U-Th ages are consistent with one another, with preliminary estimates of ΔR ≈ 0 for our entire data set. Our data are roughly compatible with predictions of a recently developed GIA model for the Southeast Asia region (Bradley et al., 2016, Quat. Sci. Rev.). This new dataset is part of larger project with more than 25 sites in Malaysia and Indonesia. Our new constraints on past RSL on the Sunda Shelf will allow for validation and calibration of GIA models in the tropics, where RSL data are presently insufficient.

  20. Falls, a fear of falling and related factors in older adults with complex chronic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, JuHee; Choi, MoonKi; Kim, Chang Oh

    2017-12-01

    To identify factors influencing falls and the fear of falling among older adults with chronic diseases in Korea. The fear of falling and falls in older adults are significant health problems towards which healthcare providers should direct their attention. Further investigation is needed to improve nursing practice specifically decreasing risk of falls and the fear of falling in Korea. Descriptive, cross-sectional survey. A convenience sample of 108 patients was recruited at the geriatric outpatient department of a tertiary hospital in Seoul, Korea. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medication use, fall history, level of physical activity, activities of daily living, mobility, muscle strength, and a fear of falling were investigated. Student's t tests, chi-square tests and multiple linear regressions were used in statistical analysis. Thirty-six participants (33.3%) among 108 subjects reported experiencing ≥1 falls in the past year. Marital status and the use of antipsychotics were associated with falls, while other factors were not significantly related to falls. Only benign prostatic hypertrophy and polypharmacy were significantly related to the fear of falling in the analysis of the relationships between chronic disease, medication use and fear of falling. In the regression model, the number of comorbidities, level of physical activity, activities of daily living and mobility were predictors of a fear of falling. Medication use was marginally significant, in the model. Increasing physical activity, functional fitness and physical independence is important to decrease the fear of falling, and to encourage active and healthy lives in older adults. The findings from this study provide evidence for the development of nursing interventions for older adults. We recommend early screening for a fear of falling and nursing interventions to decrease the fear of falling through enhancing physical activity level and function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Relative Sea Level Trends Along the Coast of the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Delebecque, C.; Islam, A. S.; Shum, C. K.

    2016-12-01

    In the coastal belt of the Bay of Bengal, the sea level rise is one of a major threat, linked to climate change, which drastically affects the livelihoods of millions of people. A comprehensive understanding of sea level trends and its variability in this region is therefore crucial and should help to anticipate the impacts of climate change and implement adaptation strategies. This region is bordered mostly by Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Here, we revisit the sea level changes in the Bay of Bengal region from tide gauges and satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2014. The 23 monthly mean tide gauge records, used in this study, are retrieved from PSMSL (15 records) and supplemented with Bangladeshi observations (8 records). We show that, over the satellite altimetry era, the sea level interannual/decadal variability is mainly due to ocean thermal expansion variability driven by IOD/ENSO events and their low frequency modulation. We focus on relative sea level rise at major coastal cities and try to separate the climatic signal (long term trend plus interannual/decadal variability) from local effects, in particular vertical land movements. Results from GPS are analysed where available. When no such data exist, vertical land movements are deduced from the combined use of tide gauge and altimetry data. While the analysis is performed over the whole region, a particular attention is given to the low-lyingBangladesh's coastal area.

  2. Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2014-10-01

    Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  3. Role of physical activity in the occurrence of falls and fall-related injuries in community-dwelling adults over 50 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Catarina L N; Baptista, Fátima; Infante, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the effect of the type, level and amount of physical activity in falls and fall-related injuries. Participants were 506 community-dwelling adults aged >50 years (390 women: 67.7 ± 6.8 years and 116 men: 69.6 ± 6.6 years). Falls, fall-related injuries (slight and severe), and physical activity (type, level and energy expenditure) were evaluated by questionnaires. Confounders included co-morbidities, fear of falling, environmental hazards and physical fitness. After adjustment for confounders, logistic analysis revealed that the likelihood of falling decreased by 2% for each 100 metabolic expenditure (MET-min/week) of total physical activity and increased by 5% for each 100 MET-min/week of vigorous-intensity physical activity; total physical activity >1125 MET-min/week and vigorous physical activity physical activity level, increased physical activity levels diminished the likelihood of the occurrence of severe fall-related injuries by 76% (moderate) and 58% (high; p active, especially sufficiently active, reduces fall-related injuries by decreasing falls and by safeguarding against severe injuries when falls occur. At least 1125 MET-min/week of total physical activity including >500 MET-min/week of vigorous intensity seems to prevent falls and, therefore, fall-related injuries.

  4. Sea level report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    Study of Cenozoic Era sea levels shows a continual lowering of sea level through the Tertiary Period. This overall drop in sea level accompanied the Pleistocene Epoch glacio-eustatic fluctuations. The considerable change of Pleistocene Epoch sea level is most directly attributable to the glacio-eustatic factor, with a time span of 10 5 years and an amplitude or range of approximately 200 m. The lowering of sea level since the end of the Cretaceous Period is attributed to subsidence and mid-ocean ridges. The maximum rate for sea level change is 4 cm/y. At present, mean sea level is rising at about 3 to 4 mm/y. Glacio-eustacy and tectono-eustacy are the parameters for predicting sea level changes in the next 1 my. Glacio-eustatic sea level changes may be projected on the basis of the Milankovitch Theory. Predictions about tectono-eustatic sea level changes, however, involve predictions about future tectonic activity and are therefore somewhat difficult to make. Coastal erosion and sedimentation are affected by changes in sea level. Erosion rates for soft sediments may be as much as 50 m/y. The maximum sedimentation accumulation rate is 20 m/100 y

  5. Contemporary sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

    2010-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  6. Postglacial relative sea-level history of the Prince Rupert area, British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letham, Bryn; Martindale, Andrew; Macdonald, Rebecca; Guiry, Eric; Jones, Jacob; Ames, Kenneth M.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a history of relative sea level (RSL) change for the last 15,000 years in the Prince Rupert region on the northern coast of British Columbia, Canada. One hundred twenty-three radiocarbon ages of organic material from isolation basin cores, sediment sequence exposures, and archaeological sites having a recognized relation to past sea levels constrain postglacial RSL. The large number of new measurements relating to past sea-level provides a well constrained RSL curve that differs in significant ways from previously published results. After deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum, the region experienced an isostatically-induced rapid RSL drop from as much 50 m asl to as low as -6.3 m asl in as little as a few centuries between 14,500 BP and 13,500 BP. After a lowstand below current sea level for about 2000 years during the terminal Pleistocene, RSL rose again to a highstand at least 6 m asl after the end of the Younger Dryas. RSL slowly dropped through the Holocene to close to its current position by 2000-1500 BP, with some potential fluctuations between 3500 and 1500 BP. This study highlights variation in RSL histories across relatively short distances, which must be accounted for by local RSL reconstructions such as this one. This RSL curve aided in the identification of an 8000-9000 year old archaeological site on a 10-12 m asl terrace, which is currently the earliest dated archaeological site in the area, and it provides guidance for searching for even older archaeological remains. We highlight the utility and potential of this refined RSL history for developing surveys for other archaeological sites associated with paleoshorelines.

  7. Active microwave measurements of sea ice under fall conditions: The RADARSAT/FIREX fall experiment. [in the Canadian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onstott, R. G.; Kim, Y. S.; Moore, R. K.

    1984-01-01

    A series of measurements of the active microwave properties of sea ice under fall growing conditions was conducted. Ice in the inland waters of Mould Bay, Crozier Channel, and intrepid inlet and ice in the Arctic Ocean near Hardinge Bay was investigated. Active microwave data were acquired using a helicopter borne scatterometer. Results show that multiyear ice frozen in grey or first year ice is easily detected under cold fall conditions. Multiyear ice returns were dynamic due to response to two of its scene constituents. Floe boundaries between thick and thin ice are well defined. Multiyear pressure ridge returns are similar in level to background ice returns. Backscatter from homogeneous first year ice is seen to be primarily due to surface scattering. Operation at 9.6 GHz is more sensitive to the detailed changes in scene roughness, while operation at 5.6 GHz seems to track roughness changes less ably.

  8. Changes in Holocene relative sea-level and coastal morphology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Sander, Lasse; Clemmensen, Lars B

    2015-01-01

    Changes in relative sea-level (RSL) during the Holocene are reconstructed based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data collected across a raised beach ridge system on the island of Samsø, Denmark. The internal architecture of the beach ridge and swale deposits is divided into characteristic radar...... ridge progradation through time. The vertical levels of identified downlap points are combined with an age model based on optically stimulated luminescence-dated samples to reconstruct RSL for the past c. 5000 years. Overall, the reconstruction shows that the period between c. 4800 and 3800 yr BP...

  9. Sea level and climate variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1985-01-01

    Review paper, ESA Symposium on Application of Satellite Data to Climate Modelling. Alpbach (Austria) Sea level is an essential component of the climate system, on which many human activities in the coastal zone depend. Climate variations leading to changes in relative sea level are

  10. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  11. Modeling Anthropogenic Impact on Sediment Balance and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Contemporary and Future Deltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.

  12. The Offlap Break Position Vs Sea Level: A Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tropeano, M.; Pieri, P.; Pomar, L.; Sabato, L.

    the offlap break might cause a misinterpretation of the ancient sea-level positions and the inferred relative sea-level changes. 2) both baselevels, the sea level and the wave/tide base, govern sedimentary accumulation in wave/tide dominated shelves and, consequently, two offlap breaks may coexist (beach edge and shoreface edge) in shallow-marine depositional profiles (Carter et al., 1991). In this setting, two seaward-clinobedded lithosomes, separated by an unconformity, may develop during relative still-stand or falls of the sea-level (Hill et al., 1998). In this case, the two stacked lithosomes could be misinterpreted as two different systems tracts, or sequences, and it could led to the construction of an 1 uncorrect curve of sea-level changes. Carter R.M., Abbott S.T., Fulthorpe C.S., Haywick D.W. and Henderson R.A. (1991): Application of global sea-level and sequence-stratigraphic models in Southern Hemi- sphere Neogene strata from New Zealand. Sp. Publ. IAS, 12, 41-65. Hernández- Molina F.J., Fernández-Salas L.M., Lobo F., Somoza L., Diaz-del-Rio V. and Alver- inho Dias J.M. (2000): The infralittoral prograding wedge: a new large-scale prograda- tional sedimentary body in shallow marine environments. Geo-Marine Letters, 20, 109-117. Hill P.R., Longuépée H. and Roberge M. (1998). Live from Canada: forced regression in action; deltaic shoreface sandbodies being formed. Abstracts, 15th Int. Cong. IAS, Alicante (Spain), 427-428. Pomar L. and Tropeano M. (2001). The Cal- carenite di Gravina Formation in Matera (southern Italy): new insights for coarse- grained, large-scale, cross-bedded bodies encased in offshore deposits. AAPG Bull., 85, 661-689. 2

  13. Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

    2017-09-11

    Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

  14. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  15. Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

  16. Simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change in southwest Scandinavia from inversion of sea level data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Hansen, Jens Morten; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    the relative sea level data. Similar independent data do not exist for ancient times. The purpose of this study is to test two simple inversion approaches for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates for ancient times in areas where a dense coverage of relative...... sea level data exists and well-constrained average lithospheric movement values are known from, for example glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The inversion approaches are tested and used for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates in southwest...... Scandinavia from modern relative sea level data series that cover the period from 1900 to 2000. In both approaches, a priori information is required to solve the inverse problem. A priori information about the average vertical lithospheric movement in the area of interest is critical for the quality...

  17. Relation among different parameters of damaged starch content, falling number and mechanical damage level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Živančev Dragan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents examination of damaged starch content expressed by different parameters, which were obtained by iodometric method presented by the Chopin Company using their SD matic instrument on wheat flour samples. Two wheat samples were similar by protein level (14.6 and 14.2% on dry basis matter and different by Falling number values (409 and 121 s. Wheat flours were gained by single-stage and two-stage extraction in laboratory milling system. Eight independent measurements of every wheat flour sample were statistically analyzed by method of variance. It was found that Chopin iodometric method shows that damaged starch content expressed by different parameters is related to Falling number value and damage caused by the pressure and shear forces generated during roller milling.

  18. Effect of glacial-interglacial sea-level changes on the displacement and stress field in the forearc and along the plate interface of subduction zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Li

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Combined seismological, space-geodetic and numerical studies have shown that the seismicity at subduction zones may be modulated by tides and glacier fluctuations on timescales of 1–100 a, because these changes in loads on Earth's surface are able to alter the stress field in the upper plate and along the plate interface. Here we use a two-dimensional finite-element model of a subduction zone to investigate how glacial-interglacial sea-level changes affect the forearc region and the plate interface. The model results show that a sea-level fall by 125 m over 100 ka causes up to 0.7 m of vertical displacement, with the maximum uplift occurring between the trench and the coast. The uplift signal induced by the sea-level fall decreases to zero ~20 km landward of the coastline. A subsequent sea-level rise by 125 m over 20 ka causes subsidence, which is again most pronounced in the submarine part of the forearc. The sea-level changes cause horizontal displacements of up to 0.12 m, which are directed seaward during sea-level fall and landward during sea-level rise. With respect to the stress field, the sea-level changes lead to variations in the vertical stress and the shear stress of up to 1.23 MPa and 0.4 MPa, respectively. The shear stress variations are highest beneath the coast, i.e. in the area where the sea-level changes cause the strongest flexure. The resulting Coulomb stress changes on the plate interface are of the order of 0.2–0.5 MPa and indicate that earthquakes are promoted during sea-level fall and delayed during sea-level rise. Our findings imply that eustatic sea-level changes during glacial-interglacial periods may have induced displacements and stress changes that were large enough to affect the seismic cycle of subduction thrusts.

  19. Paleo sea-level changes and relative sea-level indicators: Precise measurements, indicative meaning and glacial isostatic adjustment perspectives from Mallorca (Western Mediterranean)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Casella, E.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Vacchi, M.; Mann, T.; Rovere, A.

    2017-01-01

    Paleo relative sea-level (RSL) indicators formed during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e have been reported bya large number of studies worldwide. Despite this, three main aspects are seldom reported: (1) use of high-precisionsurvey techniques applied to MIS 5e RSL indicators; (2) application of

  20. Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

    To quantify properly the long-term response of sea-level to climate change, land motions must be separated from the apparent or relative sea-level change recorded by conventional tide/sea-level gauges. Here we present a concept for global measurement of the true or “absolute” sea-level change, which combines recent advances in space-based geodetic techniques with plans for a global sea-level network under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Data from initial feasibility tests show that land motion, due to global (plate tectonic), regional (glacial rebound), or local (fluid withdrawal) effects, can probably be measured to ±1cm (on a single measurement basis) by an innovative combination of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tevhniques. By making repeated observations of position at a number of tide gauges using portable, economical GPS receivers in a differential mode relative to the fewer, more stable, but more expensive VLBI observatories, it will be possible to subtract land motion from the relative sea-level signal. Decadal to century scale trends at the 1-2mm y -1 level will be resolvable in the sea-level and vertical land motion time series within about a decade. Detection of subsidence or uplift at specific gauges will allow correction for land motion or deletion of bad data when computing regional or global, i.e. eustatic, sea-level changes. In addition to their applications in oceanography and climate studies, such data will test models by Peltier and other that relate mantle viscosity and deglaciation history to present rates of crustal subsidence or uplift. If the predicted crustal motions are confirmed, we can also have more confidence in the use of historical tide/sea-level gauge records in retrospective studies of sea-level change related to climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. It is concluded that as few as one-third (about 100) of the total number of tide/sea-level gauges (250

  1. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  2. Sea-Level Change in the Russian Arctic Since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, B.; Baranskaya, A.; Khan, N.; Romanenko, F. A.

    2017-12-01

    Relative sea-level (RSL) databases that span the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present have been used to infer changes in climate, regional ice sheet variations, the rate and geographic source of meltwater influx, and the rheological structure of the solid Earth. Here, we have produced a quality-controlled RSL database for the Russian Arctic since the LGM. The database contains 394 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space, and 244 limiting points, which constrain the minimum or maximum limit of former sea level. In the western part of the Russian Arctic (Barents and White seas,) RSL was driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to deglaciation of the Scandinavian ice sheet, which covered the Baltic crystalline shield at the LGM. RSL data from isolation basins show rapid RSL from 80-100 m at 11-12 ka BP to 15-25 m at 4-5 ka BP. In the Arctic Islands of Franz-Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, RSL data from dated driftwood in raised beaches show a gradual fall from 25-35 m at 9-10 ka BP to 5-10 m at 3 ka BP. In the Russian plain, situated at the margins of the formerly glaciated Baltic crystalline shield, RSL data from raised beaches and isolation basins show an early Holocene rise from less than -20 m at 9-11 ka BP before falling in the late Holocene, illustrating the complex interplay between ice-equivalent meltwater input and GIA. The Western Siberian Arctic (Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, Beliy Island and islands of the Kara Sea) was not glaciated at the LGM. Sea-level data from marine and salt-marsh deposits show RSL rise at the beginning of the Holocene to a mid-Holocene highstand of 1-5 m at 5-1 ka BP. A similar, but more complex RSL pattern is shown for Eastern Siberia. RSL data from the Laptev Sea shelf show RSL at -40- -45 m and 11-14 ka BP. RSL data from the Lena Delta and Tiksi region have a highstand from 5 to 1 ka BP. The research is supported by RSF project 17-77-10130

  3. A model of water and sediment balance as determinants of relative sea level rise in contemporary and future deltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.

    2018-03-01

    Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.

  4. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. A. Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  5. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  6. Climate in France during the 21. century - Regionalized scenarios - Reference indices for the metropolitan region - Evolution at sea level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peings, Yannick; Planton, Serge; Deque, Michel; Jamous, Marc; Le Treut, Herve; Gallee, Hubert; Li, Laurent; Jouzel, J.

    2011-01-01

    After some comments on climate modelling (models, scenarios, uncertainties, regional predictions), the first part reports the study of several temperature indices (minimum, average and maximum daily temperature, number of days with abnormally high or low temperature, number of days of heat wave, number of days with negative temperatures, and so on.), precipitation indices (daily and extreme precipitations, dry periods, snow falls). It also discusses soil humidity index, strong wind index, river flow rate, and sea level. The second part reports simulation results for indices in metropolitan France according to the French Aladin-Climat, LMDZ and MAR models. The third volume reports evolutions and predictions of average sea level at the planet scale and along the French coasts, and discusses impacts related to sea level change (coast erosion, submersion, salt intrusion)

  7. Relationship between subjective fall risk assessment and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Hiroyuki; Suzukawa, Megumi; Ishizaki, Tatsuro; Kobayashi, Kumiko; Kim, Hunkyung; Suzuki, Takao

    2011-08-12

    Objective measurements can be used to identify people with risks of falls, but many frail elderly adults cannot complete physical performance tests. The study examined the relationship between a subjective risk rating of specific tasks (SRRST) to screen for fall risks and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people. The SRRST was investigated in 5,062 individuals aged 65 years or older who were utilized day-care services. The SRRST comprised 7 dichotomous questions to screen for fall risks during movements and behaviours such as walking, transferring, and wandering. The history of falls and fall-related fractures during the previous year was reported by participants or determined from an interview with the participant's family and care staff. All SRRST items showed significant differences between the participants with and without falls and fall-related fractures. In multiple logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, diseases, and behavioural variables, the SRRST score was independently associated with history of falls and fractures. Odds ratios for those in the high-risk SRRST group (≥ 5 points) compared with the no risk SRRST group (0 point) were 6.15 (p fall, 15.04 (p falls, and 5.05 (p fall-related fractures. The results remained essentially unchanged in subgroup analysis accounting for locomotion status. These results suggest that subjective ratings by care staff can be utilized to determine the risks of falls and fall-related fractures in the frail elderly, however, these preliminary results require confirmation in further prospective research.

  8. Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

  9. Fear of Falling in Women with Fibromyalgia and Its Relation with Number of Falls and Balance Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collado-Mateo, D; Gallego-Diaz, J M; Adsuar, J C; Domínguez-Muñoz, F J; Olivares, P R; Gusi, N

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate fear of falling, number of falls, and balance performance in women with FM and to examine the relationship between these variables and others, such as balance performance, quality of life, age, pain, and impact of fibromyalgia. A total of 240 women participated in this cross-sectional study. Of these, 125 had fibromyalgia. Several variables were assessed: age, fear of falling from 0 to 100, number of falls, body composition, balance performance, lower limb strength, health-related quality of life, and impact of fibromyalgia. Women with fibromyalgia reported more falls and more fear of falling. Fear of falling was associated with number of falls in the last year, stiffness, perceived balance problems, impact of FM, and HRQoL whereas the number of falls was related to fear of falling, balance performance with eyes closed, pain, tenderness to touch level, anxiety, self-reported balance problems, impact of FM, and HRQoL. FM has an impact on fear of falling, balance performance, and number of falls. Perceived balance problems seem to be more closely associated with fear of falling than objective balance performance.

  10. Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-04-24

    Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

  11. Falls and Fall-Related Injuries among Community-Dwelling Adults in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh K Verma

    Full Text Available Falls are the leading cause of unintentional injuries in the U.S.; however, national estimates for all community-dwelling adults are lacking. This study estimated the national incidence of falls and fall-related injuries among community-dwelling U.S. adults by age and gender and the trends in fall-related injuries across the adult life span.Nationally representative data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS 2008 Balance and Dizziness supplement was used to develop national estimates of falls, and pooled data from the NHIS was used to calculate estimates of fall-related injuries in the U.S. and related trends from 2004-2013. Costs of unintentional fall-related injuries were extracted from the CDC's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System.Twelve percent of community-dwelling U.S. adults reported falling in the previous year for a total estimate of 80 million falls at a rate of 37.2 falls per 100 person-years. On average, 9.9 million fall-related injuries occurred each year with a rate of 4.38 fall-related injuries per 100 person-years. In the previous three months, 2.0% of older adults (65+, 1.1% of middle-aged adults (45-64 and 0.7% of young adults (18-44 reported a fall-related injury. Of all fall-related injuries among community-dwelling adults, 32.3% occurred among older adults, 35.3% among middle-aged adults and 32.3% among younger adults. The age-adjusted rate of fall-related injuries increased 4% per year among older women (95% CI 1%-7% from 2004 to 2013. Among U.S. adults, the total lifetime cost of annual unintentional fall-related injuries that resulted in a fatality, hospitalization or treatment in an emergency department was 111 billion U.S. dollars in 2010.Falls and fall-related injuries represent a significant health and safety problem for adults of all ages. The findings suggest that adult fall prevention efforts should consider the entire adult lifespan to ensure a greater public health benefit.

  12. Land uplift and relative sea-level changes in the Loviisa area, southeastern Finland, during the last 8000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miettinen, A.; Eronen, M.; Hyvaerinen, H.

    1999-09-01

    Southeastern Finland belongs to the area covered by the Weichselian ice sheet, where the release of the ice load caused a rapid isostatic rebound during the postglacial time. While the mean overall apparent uplift is of the order of 2 mm/yr today, in the early Holocene time it was several times higher. A marked decrease in the rebound rate occurred around 8500 BP, however, since then the uplift rate has remained high until today, with a slightly decreasing trend towards the present time. According to current understanding there have neither been temporary increases nor decreases in the rate of uplift during the postglacial time. Even so, it is not known for sure whether there are regional irregularities on the rebound in Finland. Concurrently with land uplift, relative sea-level changes in the Baltic basin were also strongly affected by the global eustatic rise of sea-level. During the early Litorina Sea stage on the southern coast of Finland around 7000 BP, the rise in sea-level exceeded the rate of land uplift, and resulted in a short-lived transgression. The most accurate information on relative sea-level changes in an uplifting area may be obtained from radiocarbon dated events of isolation in small lake basins, as they were cut off from larger bodies of water. The isolations of such basins from the sea may be reliably determined by the recorded changes in the diatom flora in the sediment sequences, at horizons which may be radiometrically dated. In the present study, the isolation-horizons of 13 basins were dated by 26 conventional and 2 AMS radiocarbon dates. According to the available sets of dates, the time span of emergence extends from 8300 BP to the past few hundred years, for lakes from c. 30 m to 1.1 m above the present sea-level. Due to the global rise in sea-level, during the period of 7500-6500 BP, the sea-level rise clearly exceeded the rate of uplift, and resulted in the Litorina transgression, which had an amplitude of around one metre. The

  13. Land uplift and relative sea-level changes in the Loviisa area, southeastern Finland, during the last 8000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miettinen, A.; Eronen, M.; Hyvaerinen, H. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Geology

    1999-09-01

    Southeastern Finland belongs to the area covered by the Weichselian ice sheet, where the release of the ice load caused a rapid isostatic rebound during the postglacial time. While the mean overall apparent uplift is of the order of 2 mm/yr today, in the early Holocene time it was several times higher. A marked decrease in the rebound rate occurred around 8500 BP, however, since then the uplift rate has remained high until today, with a slightly decreasing trend towards the present time. According to current understanding there have neither been temporary increases nor decreases in the rate of uplift during the postglacial time. Even so, it is not known for sure whether there are regional irregularities on the rebound in Finland. Concurrently with land uplift, relative sea-level changes in the Baltic basin were also strongly affected by the global eustatic rise of sea-level. During the early Litorina Sea stage on the southern coast of Finland around 7000 BP, the rise in sea-level exceeded the rate of land uplift, and resulted in a short-lived transgression. The most accurate information on relative sea-level changes in an uplifting area may be obtained from radiocarbon dated events of isolation in small lake basins, as they were cut off from larger bodies of water. The isolations of such basins from the sea may be reliably determined by the recorded changes in the diatom flora in the sediment sequences, at horizons which may be radiometrically dated. In the present study, the isolation-horizons of 13 basins were dated by 26 conventional and 2 AMS radiocarbon dates. According to the available sets of dates, the time span of emergence extends from 8300 BP to the past few hundred years, for lakes from c. 30 m to 1.1 m above the present sea-level. Due to the global rise in sea-level, during the period of 7500-6500 BP, the sea-level rise clearly exceeded the rate of uplift, and resulted in the Litorina transgression, which had an amplitude of around one metre. The

  14. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  15. Barrier response to Holocene sea-level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pejrup, Morten; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Normally it is believed that sea-level rise causes coastal barrier retreat. However, sea-level is only one of the parameters determining the long term coastal development of barrier coasts. Sediment supply is an equally important determinant and may overshadow the effects of sea-level rise....... Conceptually this has been known for a long time but for the first time we can show the relative effect of these two parameters. We have studied three neighboring barrier islands in the Wadden Sea, and described their 3D morphological evolution during the last 8000 years. It appears that the barrier islands...... a much stronger component of sea-level control. The distance between the islands is only 50 km, and therefore our study shows that prediction of barrier development during a period of rising sea level may be more complicated than formerly believed....

  16. Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Hongzhi; Sadovski, Alexey; Jeffress, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical...

  17. Falls and Fall-Related Injuries among Community-Dwelling Adults in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Santosh K.; Willetts, Joanna L.; Corns, Helen L.; Marucci-Wellman, Helen R.; Lombardi, David A.; Courtney, Theodore K.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Falls are the leading cause of unintentional injuries in the U.S.; however, national estimates for all community-dwelling adults are lacking. This study estimated the national incidence of falls and fall-related injuries among community-dwelling U.S. adults by age and gender and the trends in fall-related injuries across the adult life span. Methods Nationally representative data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2008 Balance and Dizziness supplement was used to develop national estimates of falls, and pooled data from the NHIS was used to calculate estimates of fall-related injuries in the U.S. and related trends from 2004–2013. Costs of unintentional fall-related injuries were extracted from the CDC’s Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System. Results Twelve percent of community-dwelling U.S. adults reported falling in the previous year for a total estimate of 80 million falls at a rate of 37.2 falls per 100 person-years. On average, 9.9 million fall-related injuries occurred each year with a rate of 4.38 fall-related injuries per 100 person-years. In the previous three months, 2.0% of older adults (65+), 1.1% of middle-aged adults (45–64) and 0.7% of young adults (18–44) reported a fall-related injury. Of all fall-related injuries among community-dwelling adults, 32.3% occurred among older adults, 35.3% among middle-aged adults and 32.3% among younger adults. The age-adjusted rate of fall-related injuries increased 4% per year among older women (95% CI 1%–7%) from 2004 to 2013. Among U.S. adults, the total lifetime cost of annual unintentional fall-related injuries that resulted in a fatality, hospitalization or treatment in an emergency department was 111 billion U.S. dollars in 2010. Conclusions Falls and fall-related injuries represent a significant health and safety problem for adults of all ages. The findings suggest that adult fall prevention efforts should consider the entire adult lifespan to ensure a

  18. Fish food in the deep sea: revisiting the role of large food-falls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas D Higgs

    Full Text Available The carcasses of large pelagic vertebrates that sink to the seafloor represent a bounty of food to the deep-sea benthos, but natural food-falls have been rarely observed. Here were report on the first observations of three large 'fish-falls' on the deep-sea floor: a whale shark (Rhincodon typus and three mobulid rays (genus Mobula. These observations come from industrial remotely operated vehicle video surveys of the seafloor on the Angola continental margin. The carcasses supported moderate communities of scavenging fish (up to 50 individuals per carcass, mostly from the family Zoarcidae, which appeared to be resident on or around the remains. Based on a global dataset of scavenging rates, we estimate that the elasmobranch carcasses provided food for mobile scavengers over extended time periods from weeks to months. No evidence of whale-fall type communities was observed on or around the carcasses, with the exception of putative sulphide-oxidising bacterial mats that outlined one of the mobulid carcasses. Using best estimates of carcass mass, we calculate that the carcasses reported here represent an average supply of carbon to the local seafloor of 0.4 mg m(-2d(-1, equivalent to ∼ 4% of the normal particulate organic carbon flux. Rapid flux of high-quality labile organic carbon in fish carcasses increases the transfer efficiency of the biological pump of carbon from the surface oceans to the deep sea. We postulate that these food-falls are the result of a local concentration of large marine vertebrates, linked to the high surface primary productivity in the study area.

  19. Fear of Falling in Women with Fibromyalgia and Its Relation with Number of Falls and Balance Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Collado-Mateo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate fear of falling, number of falls, and balance performance in women with FM and to examine the relationship between these variables and others, such as balance performance, quality of life, age, pain, and impact of fibromyalgia. Methods. A total of 240 women participated in this cross-sectional study. Of these, 125 had fibromyalgia. Several variables were assessed: age, fear of falling from 0 to 100, number of falls, body composition, balance performance, lower limb strength, health-related quality of life, and impact of fibromyalgia. Results. Women with fibromyalgia reported more falls and more fear of falling. Fear of falling was associated with number of falls in the last year, stiffness, perceived balance problems, impact of FM, and HRQoL whereas the number of falls was related to fear of falling, balance performance with eyes closed, pain, tenderness to touch level, anxiety, self-reported balance problems, impact of FM, and HRQoL. Conclusion. FM has an impact on fear of falling, balance performance, and number of falls. Perceived balance problems seem to be more closely associated with fear of falling than objective balance performance.

  20. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

  1. Relationship between subjective fall risk assessment and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimada Hiroyuki

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Objective measurements can be used to identify people with risks of falls, but many frail elderly adults cannot complete physical performance tests. The study examined the relationship between a subjective risk rating of specific tasks (SRRST to screen for fall risks and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people. Methods The SRRST was investigated in 5,062 individuals aged 65 years or older who were utilized day-care services. The SRRST comprised 7 dichotomous questions to screen for fall risks during movements and behaviours such as walking, transferring, and wandering. The history of falls and fall-related fractures during the previous year was reported by participants or determined from an interview with the participant's family and care staff. Results All SRRST items showed significant differences between the participants with and without falls and fall-related fractures. In multiple logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, diseases, and behavioural variables, the SRRST score was independently associated with history of falls and fractures. Odds ratios for those in the high-risk SRRST group (≥ 5 points compared with the no risk SRRST group (0 point were 6.15 (p Conclusion These results suggest that subjective ratings by care staff can be utilized to determine the risks of falls and fall-related fractures in the frail elderly, however, these preliminary results require confirmation in further prospective research.

  2. Amplitude of late Miocene sea-level fluctuations from karst development in reef-slope deposits (SE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reolid, Jesús; Betzler, Christian; Braga, Juan Carlos

    2016-11-01

    A prograding late Miocene carbonate platform in southern Spain revealing different sea-level pinning points was analysed with the aim to increase the accuracy of reconstruction of past sea-level changes. These pinning points are distinct diagenetic zones (DZ) and the position of reef-framework deposits. DZ1 is defined by the dissolution of bioclastic components and DZ2 by calcitic cement precipitation in dissolution pores. Calcite cements are granular and radiaxial fibrous, and are of meteoric origin as deduced from cathodoluminescence, EDX spectroscopy, as well as from δ13C and δ18O isotope analyses. DZ3 has moldic porosity after aragonitic bioclasts with minor granular calcitic cements. DZ1 and DZ2 indicate karstification and the development of a coastal palaeoaquifer during a sea-level lowstand. DZ3 diagenetic features are related to the final subaerial exposure of the section during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Facies and diagenetic data reveal a complete cycle of sea-level fall (23 ± 1 m) and rise (31 ± 1 m). A robust age model based on magneto- and cyclostratigraphy for these deposits places this cycle between 5.89 and 5.87 Ma. Therefore, for the first time, this work allows a direct comparison of an outcrop with a pelagic marine proxy record of a specific Neogene sea-level fluctuation.

  3. Tropical cyclone induced asymmetry of sea level surge and fall and its presentation in a storm surge model with parametric wind fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

    The asymmetry of tropical cyclone induced maximum coastal sea level rise (positive surge) and fall (negative surge) is studied using a three-dimensional storm surge model. It is found that the negative surge induced by offshore winds is more sensitive to wind speed and direction changes than the positive surge by onshore winds. As a result, negative surge is inherently more difficult to forecast than positive surge since there is uncertainty in tropical storm wind forecasts. The asymmetry of negative and positive surge under parametric wind forcing is more apparent in shallow water regions. For tropical cyclones with fixed central pressure, the surge asymmetry increases with decreasing storm translation speed. For those with the same translation speed, a weaker tropical cyclone is expected to gain a higher AI (asymmetry index) value though its induced maximum surge and fall are smaller. With fixed RMW (radius of maximum wind), the relationship between central pressure and AI is heterogeneous and depends on the value of RMW. Tropical cyclone's wind inflow angle can also affect surge asymmetry. A set of idealized cases as well as two historic tropical cyclones are used to illustrate the surge asymmetry.

  4. A Mid-Holocene Relative Sea-Level Stack, New Jersey, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, B.; Walker, J. S.; Kemp, A.; Shaw, T. J.; Kopp, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Most high resolution (decimeter- and decadal-scale) relative sea-level (RSL) records using salt-marsh microfossils as a proxy only extend through the Common Era, limiting our understanding of driving mechanisms of RSL change and how sea-level is influenced by changing climate. Records beyond the Common Era are limited by the depth of continuous sequences of salt-marsh peat suitable for high resolution reconstructions, as well as contamination by local processes such as sediment compaction. In contrast, sequences of basal peats have produced compaction-free RSL records through the Holocene, but at a low resolution (meter- and centennial-scale). We devise a new Multi-Proxy Presence/Absence Method (MP2AM) to develop a mid-Holocene RSL stack. We stack a series of 1 m basal peat cores that overlap along a uniform elevational gradient above an incompressible basal sand. We analyzed three sea-level indicators from 14 cores: foraminifera, testate amoebae, and stable carbon isotope geochemistry. To reconstruct RSL, this multi-proxy approach uses the timesaving presence/absence of forams and testates to determine the elevation of the highest occurrence of forams and the lowest occurrence of testates in each basal core. We use stable carbon isotope geochemistry to determine the C3/C4 vegetation boundary in each core. We develop age-depth models for each core using a series of radiocarbon dates. The RSL records from each 1 m basal core are combined to create a stack or, in effect, one long core of salt-marsh material. This method removes the issue of compaction to create a continuous RSL record to address temporal changes and periods of climate and sea-level variability. We reconstruct a southern NJ mid-Holocene RSL record from Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, where Kemp et al. (2013) completed a 2500 yr RSL record using a foraminifera-based transfer function approach. Preliminary radiocarbon dates suggest the basal sequence is at least 4246-4408 cal yrs BP

  5. Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bâki Iz H.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

  6. Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Sadovski

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change. Unlike physical models and semi-empirical models that attempt to approach how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this methodology allows for a discussion of the factor(s that statistically affects sea level rates of change, and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlations.

  7. The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.

    2017-12-01

    Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.

  8. Grain-size based sea-level reconstruction in the south Bohai Sea during the past 135 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Chen, Yanping

    2013-04-01

    Future anthropogenic sea-level rise and its impact on coastal regions is an important issue facing human civilizations. Due to the short nature of the instrumental record of sea-level change, development of proxies for sea-level change prior to the advent of instrumental records is essential to reconstruct long-term background sea-level changes on local, regional and global scales. Two of the most widely used approaches for past sea-level changes are: (1) exploitation of dated geomorphologic features such as coastal sands (e.g. Mauz and Hassler, 2000), salt marsh (e.g. Madsen et al., 2007), terraces (e.g. Chappell et al., 1996), and other coastal sediments (e.g. Zong et al., 2003); and (2) sea-level transfer functions based on faunal assemblages such as testate amoebae (e.g. Charman et al., 2002), foraminifera (e.g. Chappell and Shackleton, 1986; Horton, 1997), and diatoms (e.g. Horton et al., 2006). While a variety of methods has been developed to reconstruct palaeo-changes in sea level, many regions, including the Bohai Sea, China, still lack detailed relative sea-level curves extending back to the Pleistocene (Yi et al., 2012). For example, coral terraces are absent in the Bohai Sea, and the poor preservation of faunal assemblages makes development of a transfer function for a relative sea-level reconstruction unfeasible. In contrast, frequent alternations between transgression and regression has presumably imprinted sea-level change on the grain size distribution of Bohai Sea sediments, which varies from medium silt to coarse sand during the late Quaternary (IOCAS, 1985). Advantages of grainsize-based relative sea-level transfer function approaches are that they require smaller sample sizes, allowing for replication, faster measurement and higher spatial or temporal resolution at a fraction of the cost of detail micro-palaeontological analysis (Yi et al., 2012). Here, we employ numerical methods to partition sediment grain size using a combined database of

  9. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  10. Upper Cenomanian-lower Turonian sea-level rise and its consequences on the Adriatic-Dinaric carbonate platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gušić, I.; Jelaska, V.

    1993-12-01

    The Adriatic carbonate platform existed throughout most of the Mesozoic as an isolated (‘intraoceanic’) carbonate platform. It is characterized by what has been traditionally labelled a ‘continuous’ shallow marine carbonate sedimentation, without terrigenous influences. However, global sea-level changes left unequivocal imprints in the ‘continuous’ carbonate record, thus proving that the carbonate platform sensitively responded to sea-level fluctuations. This paper focuses on the relatively short Cenomanian — Turonian drowning event, which temporarily submerged the platform below the euphotic zone, and which is related here to the well known global Cenomanian — Turonian sea-level highstand. This drowning episode is characterized by the abrupt disappearance of numerous shallow water benthic invertebrate taxa and by an abundant occurrence of planktonic organisms, including calcispheres and ‘primitive’ planktonic foraminifera. Near the middle of the Turonian, the platform regime was re-established, correlating with the global fall in sea level. The situation is different only at the south-west margin of the platform, where pelagic sedimentation, initiated near the end of the Cenomanian, continues into the Santonian and probably marks the Adriatic trough. The drowning began earlier (in the Middle Cenomanian) in those areas nearer to the north-east margin of the platform (the area of what is today central Croatia) and then progressed gradually towards the more interior areas of the platform (the middle Dalmatian islands), which were drowned near the end of the Cenomanian.

  11. Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W.; Lombard, A.

    2008-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)

  12. Speciated atmospheric mercury in the marine boundary layer of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunjie; Ci, Zhijia; Wang, Zhangwei; Zhang, Xiaoshan; Guo, Jia

    2016-04-01

    The objectives of this study are to identify the spatial and temporal distributions of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), reactive gaseous mercury (RGM), and fine particulate mercury (HgP2.5) in the marine boundary layer (MBL) of the Bohai Sea (BS) and Yellow Sea (YS), and to investigate the relationships between mercury species and meteorological parameters. The mean concentrations of GEM, RGM, and HgP2.5 were 2.03 ng m-3, 2.5 pg m-3, and 8.2 pg m-3 in spring, and 2.09 ng m-3, 4.3 pg m-3, and 8.3 pg m-3 in fall. Reactive mercury (RGM + HgP2.5) represented RGM + HgP2.5), which indicated that most mercury export in the MBL was GEM and the direct outflow of reactive mercury was very small. Moreover, GEM concentrations over the BS were generally higher than those over the YS both in spring and fall. Although RGM showed a homogeneous distribution over the BS and YS both in spring and fall, the mean RGM concentration in fall was significantly higher than that in spring. In contrast, the spatial distribution of HgP2.5 generally reflected a gradient with high levels near the coast of China and low levels in the open sea, suggesting the significant atmospheric mercury outflow from China. Interestingly, the mean RGM concentrations during daytime were significantly higher than those during nighttime both in spring and fall, while the opposite results were observed for HgP2.5. Additionally, RGM positively correlates with air temperature while negatively correlates with relative humidity. In conclusion, the elevated atmospheric mercury levels in the BS and YS compared to other open seas suggested that the human activities had a significant influence on the oceanic mercury cycle downwind of China.

  13. Continuous sea-level reconstructions beyond the Pleistocene: improving the Mediterranean sea-level method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K.; Rohling, E. J.; Amies, J.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level (SL) reconstructions over glacial-interglacial timeframes are critical for understanding the equilibrium response of ice sheets to sustained warming. In particular, continuous and high-resolution SL records are essential for accurately quantifying `natural' rates of SL rise. Global SL changes are well-constrained since the last glacial maximum ( 20,000 years ago, ky) by radiometrically-dated corals and paleoshoreline data, and fairly well-constrained over the last glacial cycle ( 150 ky). Prior to that, however, studies of ice-volume:SL relationships tend to rely on benthic δ18O, as geomorphological evidence is far more sparse and less reliably dated. An alternative SL reconstruction method (the `marginal basin' approach) was developed for the Red Sea over 500 ky, and recently attempted for the Mediterranean over 5 My (Rohling et al., 2014, Nature). This method exploits the strong sensitivity of seawater δ18O in these basins to SL changes in the relatively narrow and shallow straits which connect the basins with the open ocean. However, the initial Mediterranean SL method did not resolve sea-level highstands during Northern Hemisphere insolation maxima, when African monsoon run-off - strongly depleted in δ18O - reached the Mediterranean. Here, we present improvements to the `marginal basin' sea-level reconstruction method. These include a new `Med-Red SL stack', which combines new probabilistic Mediterranean and Red Sea sea-level stacks spanning the last 500 ky. We also show how a box model-data comparison of water-column δ18O changes over a monsoon interval allows us to quantify the monsoon versus SL δ18O imprint on Mediterranean foraminiferal carbonate δ18O records. This paves the way for a more accurate and fully continuous SL reconstruction extending back through the Pliocene.

  14. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

    2013-01-01

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

  15. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  16. A 500 kyr record of global sea-level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea-level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  17. Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

    2016-12-01

    Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.

  18. The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

    2014-05-01

    In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

  19. Arctic Sea Level Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is very difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. This thesis addresses many of these issues, and discusses strategies to help achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from...... 1950 to today.The primary record of historical sea level, on the order of several decades to a few centuries, is tide gauges. Tide gauge records from around the world are collected in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, and includes data along the Arctic coasts. A reasonable...... amount of data is available along the Norwegian and Russian coasts since 1950, and most published research on Arctic sea level extends cautiously from these areas. Very little tide gauge data is available elsewhere in the Arctic, and records of a length of several decades,as generally recommended for sea...

  20. Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

    2014-05-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single

  1. Potential of sea level rise impact on South China Sea: a preliminary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of the sea level rise was involved the existence of sea water intrusion and coastal erosion phenomenon in the coastal of Terengganu. This study aim to determine fluctuation of high and low tides of the South China Sea in their relation to water quality value of Marang and Paka Rivers as well as from wells ...

  2. Late Frasnian sedimentation cycles in the Appalachian basin—possible evidence for high frequency eustatic sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filer, Jonathan K.

    2002-12-01

    During the late Frasnian, 11 fourth-order progradational/retrogradational marine sedimentation cycles were deposited in the Appalachian foreland basin. Mapping based primarily on subsurface data demonstrates the continuity of these cycles over a distance of 700 km. Cyclicity in distal facies occurs as alternations of organic-rich and organic-poor shales, two of the organic shales can be correlated with the transgressive "Kellwasser Beds" of Europe. In more proximal facies, recurring lobes of siltstone and sandstone were deposited. Based on lithologic indices, the temporal pattern shows significant variation in the strength of relative facies change during deposition. In particular, two times of particularly pronounced progradation correspond to previously recognized eustatic sea-level falls. The correlation of portions of Appalachian basin depositional cyclicity with global sea-level events suggests that the entire sequence of 11 cycles, with estimated average duration of around 100-150 ka, were the result of high-frequency eustatic sea-level changes. This in turn would be consistent with a brief period of late Frasnian glaciation, as others have previously suggested.

  3. Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Q. Bowen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

  4. Millennial, centennial and decadal sea- level change in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, A.; Hawkes, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.; Horton, B. P.

    2012-12-01

    Reconstructions of relative sea-level changes on millennial timescales provide data against which to test and calibrate Earth-Ice models. On the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast they constrain the geometry of the Laurentide Ice Sheet's collapsing forebulge. Sea -level data from southeastern Atlantic coast additionally constrain ice-equivalent meltwater input. Here we produce the first Holocene sea-level curve for Florida and Georgia from the St. Mary's River using agglutinated foraminifera preserved in radiocarbon-dated brackish and salt-marsh sediment. The use of foraminfera as sea-level indicators was underpinned by local and regional datasets describing the modern distribution of assemblages that are analogues for those preserved in buried sediment. This approach produced 25 index points that record 5.2 m of relative sea level rise over the last 8000 years with no evidence of a mid Holocene high stand. These reconstructions indicate that existing GIA models do not replicate proxy reconstructions and that northern Florida is subsiding in response to ongoing forebulge collapse at an estimated rate of approximately 0.3 mm/yr. Over multi decadal time scales, detailed sea level reconstructions provide an appropriate geological context for modern rates of sea-level rise. Reconstructions spanning the last 2000 years of known climate variability are important for developing models with predictive capacity that link climate and sea level changes. A reconstruction of sea-level changes since 2000 years BP was developed using a core of brackish marsh sediment from the Nassau River in Florida. Foraminifera estimated the elevation of former sea level with an uncertainty of ± 10 cm. Consistent downcore assemblages indicate that the marsh maintained its tidal elevation for 2000 years. An age depth model was developed for the core results from radiocarbon dating, 210Pb and 137Cs. The resulting relative sea level record was adjusted for the contribution made by glacio

  5. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2017-08-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

  6. Global change and relative sea level rise at Venice: what impact in term of flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbognin, Laura; Tosi, Luigi [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); Teatini, Pietro [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University of Padova, Department of Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific Applications, Padua (Italy); Tomasin, Alberto [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University Ca' Foscari in Venice, Venice (Italy)

    2010-11-15

    Relative sea level rise (RSLR) due to climate change and geodynamics represents the main threat for the survival of Venice, emerging today only 90 cm above the Northern Adriatic mean sea level (msl). The 25 cm RSLR occurred over the 20th century, consisting of about 12 cm of land subsidence and 13 cm of sea level rise, has increased the flood frequency by more than seven times with severe damages to the urban heritage. Reasonable forecasts of the RSLR expected to the century end must be investigated to assess the suitability of the Mo.S.E. project planned for the city safeguarding, i.e., the closure of the lagoon inlets by mobile barriers. Here we consider three RSLR scenarios as resulting from the past sea level rise recorded in the Northern Adriatic Sea, the IPCC mid-range A1B scenario, and the expected land subsidence. Available sea level measurements show that more than 5 decades are required to compute a meaningful eustatic trend, due to pseudo-cyclic 7-8 year long fluctuations. The period from 1890 to 2007 is characterized by an average rate of 0.12 {+-} 0.01 cm/year. We demonstrate that linear regression is the most suitable model to represent the eustatic process over these 117 year. Concerning subsidence, at present Venice is sinking due to natural causes at 0.05 cm/year. The RSLR is expected to range between 17 and 53 cm by 2100, and its repercussions in terms of flooding frequency are associated here to each scenario. In particular, the frequency of tides higher than 110 cm, i.e., the value above which the gates would close the lagoon to the sea, will increase from the nowadays 4 times per year to a range between 20 and 250. These projections provide a large spread of possible conditions concerning the survival of Venice, from a moderate nuisance to an intolerable aggression. Hence, complementary solutions to Mo.S.E. may well be investigated. (orig.)

  7. Intermittent sea-level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

    2013-10-01

    Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

  8. Relative sea-level changes and crustal movements in Britain and Ireland since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shennan, Ian; Bradley, Sarah L.; Edwards, Robin

    2018-05-01

    The new sea-level database for Britain and Ireland contains >2100 data points from 86 regions and records relative sea-level (RSL) changes over the last 20 ka and across elevations ranging from ∼+40 to -55 m. It reveals radically different patterns of RSL as we move from regions near the centre of the Celtic ice sheet at the last glacial maximum to regions near and beyond the ice limits. Validated sea-level index points and limiting data show good agreement with the broad patterns of RSL change predicted by current glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The index points show no consistent pattern of synchronous coastal advance and retreat across different regions, ∼100-500 km scale, indicating that within-estuary processes, rather than decimetre- and centennial-scale oscillations in sea level, produce major controls on the temporal pattern of horizontal shifts in coastal sedimentary environments. Comparisons between the database and GIA model predictions for multiple regions provide potentially powerful constraints on various characteristics of global GIA models, including the magnitude of MWP1A, the final deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet and the continued melting of Antarctica after 7 ka BP.

  9. The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser

    2015-04-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an \\'intermediate\\' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

  10. The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser; Churchill, James H.; Nellayaputhenpeedika, Mohammedali; Limeburner, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an 'intermediate' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

  11. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  12. Experiments in Reconstructing Twentieth-Century Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Richard D.; Douglas, Bruce C.

    2011-01-01

    One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 +/- 0.26 mm/yr. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm/yr which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.

  13. The future for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Sea Level Data Rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andrew; Rickards, Lesley; Aarup, Thorkild

    2016-04-01

    Historical sea level data are rare and unrepeatable measurements with a number of applications in climate studies (sea level rise), oceanography (ocean currents, tides, surges), geodesy (national datum), geophysics and geology (coastal land movements) and other disciplines. However, long-term time series are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and there are no records at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) global data bank longer than 100 years in the Arctic, Africa, South America or Antarctica. Data archaeology activities will help fill in the gaps in the global dataset and improve global sea level reconstruction. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the auspices of the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology. It was set up in 1985 to collect long-term tide gauge observations and to develop systems and standards "for ocean monitoring and flood warning purposes". At the GLOSS-GE-XIV Meeting in 2015, GLOSS agreed on a number of action items to be developed in the next two years. These were: 1. To explore mareogram digitisation applications, including NUNIEAU (more information available at: http://www.mediterranee.cerema.fr/logiciel-de-numerisation-des-enregistrements-r57.html) and other recent developments in scanning/digitisation software, such as IEDRO's Weather Wizards program, to see if they could be used via a browser. 2. To publicise sea level data archaeology and rescue by: • maintaining and regularly updating the Sea Level Data Archaeology page on the GLOSS website • strengthening links to the GLOSS data centres and data rescue organisations e.g. linking to IEDRO, ACRE, RDA • restarting the sea level data rescue blog with monthly posts. 3. Investigate sources of funding for data archaeology and rescue projects. 4. Propose "Guidelines" for rescuing sea level data. These action items will aid the discovery, scanning, digitising and quality control

  14. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor; Jakobsson, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Deglacial (12.8-10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; ˜ 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of ˜ 125-130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ˜ 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42-47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  15. Principles and reconstruction of the ancient sea levels during the Quaternary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, L.; Flexor, J.M.; Suguio, K.

    1986-01-01

    This work focused the multiple aspects related to the ''reconstruction of the ancient sea level during the Quaternary''. The relative sea level, fluctuations are produced by true variations of the level (eustasy) and by changes in the land level (tectonism and isostasy). The changes of the relative levels are reconstructed through several evidence of these fluctuations, which are recognised in time and space. To define their situation in space is necessary to know their present altitude in relation to their original altitude, that is, to determine their position in relation to the sea level during their formation or sedimentation. Their situation in time is determined by measuring the moment of their formation or sedimentation, using for this the dating methods (isotopic, archeological, etc.) When numerous ancient levels could be reconstructed, spread through a considerable time interval, is possible to delineate the sea level fluctuation curve for this period. (C.D.G.) [pt

  16. Accelerated relative sea-level rise and rapid coastal erosion: Testing a causal relationship for the Louisiana barrier islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, J.H.; Sallenger, A.H.; Hansen, M.E.; Jaffe, B.E.

    1997-01-01

    The role of relative sea-level rise as a cause for the rapid erosion of Louisiana's barrier island coast is investigated through a numerical implementation of a modified Bruun rule that accounts for the low percentage of sand-sized sediment in the eroding Louisiana shoreface. Shore-normal profiles from 150 km of coastline west of the Mississippi delta are derived from bathymetric surveys conducted during the 1880s. 1930s and 1980s. An RMS difference criterion is employed to test whether an equilibrium profile form is maintained between survey years. Only about half the studied profiles meet the equilibrium Criterion this represents a significant limitation on the potential applicability of the Bruun rule. The profiles meeting the equilibrium criterion, along with measured rates of relative sea-level rise, are used to hindcast shoreline retreat rates at 37 locations within the study area. Modeled and observed shoreline retreat rates show no significant correlation. Thus in terms of the Bruun approach relative sea-level rise has no power for hindcasting (and presumably forecasting) rates of coastal erosion for the Louisiana barrier islands.

  17. Tidal notches, coastal landforms and relative sea-level changes during the Late Quaternary at Ustica Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlani, Stefano; Antonioli, Fabrizio; Cavallaro, Danilo; Chirco, Pietro; Caldareri, Francesco; Martin, Franco Foresta; Morticelli, Maurizio Gasparo; Monaco, Carmelo; Sulli, Attilio; Quarta, Gianluca; Biolchi, Sara; Sannino, Gianmaria; de Vita, Sandro; Calcagnile, Lucio; Agate, Mauro

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we present and discuss data concerning the morphostructural evolution at Ustica Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) during Late Quaternary. New insights on the relative sea-level changes of Ustica are coming from data collected during a geomorphological field survey around the island, together with the bathymetric analysis of the surrounding seabed and 14C datings on samples of speleothems, flowstones and marine shells found inside three selected sea caves. The survey was mainly accomplished on June 2015 through the first complete snorkel investigation off the about 18 km-long volcanic coast of the island, which allowed to precisely define location, relationship and morphometric features of coastal landforms associated with modern sea level. This study highlights the occurrence, for the first time in the Mediterranean, of tidal notches in correspondence of carbonate inclusions in volcanic rocks. The elevation of the modern tidal notch suggests that no significant vertical deformations occurred in the southeastern and eastern sectors of Ustica in the last 100 years. However, the presence of pillow lavas along the coast demonstrates that Ustica was affected by a regional uplift since the Late Quaternary, as also confirmed by MIS5.5 deposits located at about 30 m a.s.l., which suggests an average uplift rate of 0.23 mm/y. Radiocarbon dating of fossil barnacles collected inside the Grotta Segreta cave indicate an age of 1823 ± 104 cal. BP. The difference in height with respect to living barnacles in the same site suggests that their present elevation could be related to stick-slip coseismic deformations caused by the four earthquake sequences (two of which with Mw = 4.63 ± 0.46) that strongly struck the island between 1906 and 1924.

  18. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  19. Non-eustatic controls on sea-level change in semi-enclosed basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Candace Olson

    Marginal basins with shallow connections to the world ocean can become isolated from marine influence when eustatic sea level drops below the dividing sill. During isolation the basins may have higher or lower base-levels than the open ocean. This decoupling from global sea level and seawater allows preservation of a distinct history that constrains water balance and erosion in the surrounding continental masses, providing records of continental climates not preserved in marine records. The Mediterranean and Black Seas both experienced isolation stages and significant draw down of base-level below the dividing sill depth. In the Late Miocene (Messinian) a combination of tectonic compression at the marine gateways and eustatic sea level drop isolated the Mediterranean. A negative water balance then caused a lowering of Mediterranean base-level by at least 1500 m, exposing the continental shelves and slopes, and allowing the emergence of bathymetric highs in the central basins. Subaerial exposure features on the summit and evaporite onlap at the base of the Eratosthenes seamount, a carbonate platform in the Levantine basin of the Mediterranean, show the extent of base-level lowering. The Black Sea has periodically become isolated during glacio-eustatic low stands of the Pleistocene. Submerged shoreline deposits and beveled strata during the last isolation exposed the continental shelves out to -105 m below modern sea level. Integration of seismic data, sediment cores, radiocarbon dating, and geochemical analyses indicates that the lowest water level occurred not during the glacial maximum but during the early deglaciation. A brief return toward glacial conditions in the Younger Dryas cold period resulted in increased freshwater input to the Black Sea and a rise in base-level above the outside eustatic level. Subsequent base-level fall to -105 m occurred with resumed warming climate. The first marine invasion, which is seen prominently in the 87Sr/86Sr composition of

  20. Sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2014-06-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. Resulting sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); while long-term sea level trend is related to global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 1.6 mm yr-1 and 2.7 ± 1.0 mm yr-1, respectively. Allowing for corresponding vertical land movements (VLM; 0.8 ± 2.6 mm yr-1 and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm yr-1), their absolute SLR rates are 3.2 ± 4.2 mm yr-1 and 3.6 ± 3.2 mm yr-1, respectively. For the common period 1993-2009, absolute SLR rates obtained from both tide gauge and satellite altimetry in Peninsular Malaysia are similar; and they are slightly higher than the global tendency. It further underlines that VLM should be taken into account to get better estimates of SLR observations. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian coast in the range of ±5 cm with a very high correlation. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies mainly in the Malacca Strait in the range of ±2 cm with a high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index

  1. Unexplained Falls Are Frequent in Patients with Fall-Related Injury Admitted to Orthopaedic Wards: The UFO Study (Unexplained Falls in Older Patients).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiara, Mussi; Gianluigi, Galizia; Pasquale, Abete; Alessandro, Morrione; Alice, Maraviglia; Gabriele, Noro; Paolo, Cavagnaro; Loredana, Ghirelli; Giovanni, Tava; Franco, Rengo; Giulio, Masotti; Gianfranco, Salvioli; Niccolò, Marchionni; Andrea, Ungar

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate the incidence of unexplained falls in elderly patients affected by fall-related fractures admitted to orthopaedic wards, we recruited 246 consecutive patients older than 65 (mean age 82 ± 7 years, range 65-101). Falls were defined "accidental" (fall explained by a definite accidental cause), "medical" (fall caused directly by a specific medical disease), "dementia-related" (fall in patients affected by moderate-severe dementia), and "unexplained" (nonaccidental falls, not related to a clear medical or drug-induced cause or with no apparent cause). According to the anamnestic features of the event, older patients had a lower tendency to remember the fall. Patients with accidental fall remember more often the event. Unexplained falls were frequent in both groups of age. Accidental falls were more frequent in younger patients, while dementia-related falls were more common in the older ones. Patients with unexplained falls showed a higher number of depressive symptoms. In a multivariate analysis a higher GDS and syncopal spells were independent predictors of unexplained falls. In conclusion, more than one third of all falls in patients hospitalized in orthopaedic wards were unexplained, particularly in patients with depressive symptoms and syncopal spells. The identification of fall causes must be evaluated in older patients with a fall-related injury.

  2. Extending the Instrumental Record of Sea-Level Change: A 1300-Year Sea-Level Record From Eastern Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Cleary, P.

    2002-12-01

    The instrumental record of sea-level change in the northeastern United States extends back to the early 20th century and at New York City (NYC) extends back to 1856. These tide gauge records indicate that sea level has risen at a rate of 2.5 to 4 mm/year over the last 100-150 years. Geologic evidence of sea-level change in the region over the last 2,000 years indicates rates of sea-level rise of about 1 mm/year or less. The discordance between the instrumental and geologic records is frequently cited as potentially providing evidence that anthropogenic warming of the climate system has resulted in an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. In order to begin to test the hypothesis that acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise has occurred in the last 150 years due to anthropogenic climate warming, accurate and precise information on the timing of the apparent acceleration in sea-level rise are needed. Here we construct a high-resolution relative sea-level record for the past 1350 years by dating basal salt marsh peat samples above a glacial erratic in a western Connecticut salt marsh. Preservation of marsh vegetation remains in the sediment record that has a narrow vertical habitat range at the upper end of the tidal range provides information on past sea levels. { \\it Spartina patens} (marsh hay) and { \\it Juncus gerardi} (black rush) dominate both the modern marsh and their remains are the major constituent of the marsh sediments and occur in the modern marsh between mean high water (MHW) and mean highest high water. We use the elevation distribution of modern plant communities to estimate the relationship of sediment samples to paleo-mean high water. The chronology is based on 15 radiocarbon ages, supplemented by age estimates derived from the horizons of industrial Pb pollution and pollen indicative of European land clearance. Thirteen of the radiocarbon ages and the Pb and pollen data come from samples taken along a contact between marsh peat and a glacial

  3. The rise of sea level. To understand and to anticipate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-03-01

    By proposing and briefly commenting graphs and drawings, this publication propose brief presentations of the main issues related to sea level rise: global warming and climate disturbance, description of the phenomenon of sea level rise (difference between sea ice and ground ice, melting of glaciers), increase of sea level rise during the twentieth century, territories at risk (examples of Greenland, Tuvalu, Shanghai), acceleration of ice melting during the twenty first century with many coastal areas at risk, already noticed and possible future impacts in France (glaciers runoff, threatened coasts, example of the Xynthia tempest), how to be united and to anticipate (a threat for millions of people, adaptation to sea level rise, limitation of global warming to limit sea level rise)

  4. The Barbados Sea Level Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbanks, R. G.; Mortlock, R. A.; Abdul, N. A.; Wright, J. D.; Cao, L.; Mey, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Additional offshore drill cores, nearly 100 new radiometric dates, and more than 1000 kilometers of Multibeam mapping greatly enhance the Barbados Sea Level record. Extensive Multibeam mapping around the entire island covers approximately 2650 km2 of the sea bottom and now integrates the offshore reef topography and Barbados Sea Level Record with the unparalleled onshore core collection, digital elevation maps, and Pleistocene sea level record spanning the past one million years. The reef crest coral, Acropora palmata, remains the stalwart indicator of sea level for many reasons that are validated by our redundant sea level records and redundant dating via Th/U and Pa/U analyses. Microanalysis and densitometry studies better explain why Acropora palmata is so well preserved in the Pleistocene reef records and therefore why it is the species of choice for sea level reconstructions and radiometric dating. New drill cores into reefs that formed during Marine Isotope Stage 3 lead us to a model of diagenesis that allows us to better prospect for unaltered coral samples in older reefs that may be suitable for Th/U dating. Equally important, our diagenesis model reinforces our rigorous sample quality criteria in a more quantitative manner. The Barbados Sea Level record has a sampling resolution of better than 100 years throughout much of the last deglaciation showing unprecedented detail in redundant drill cores. The Melt Water Pulses (MWP1A and MWP1B) are well resolved and the intervening interval that includes the Younger Dryas reveals sea level changes in new detail that are consistent with the terrestrial records of ice margins (see Abdul et al., this section). More than 100 paired Th/U and radiocarbon ages place the Barbados Sea Level Record unambiguously on the radiocarbon time scale for direct comparisons with the terrestrial records of ice margin changes.

  5. A High-Resolution Reconstruction of Late-Holocene Relative Sea Level in Rhode Island, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stearns, R. B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Kemp, A.; Cahill, N.; Halavik, B. T.; Corbett, D. R.; Brain, M.; Hill, T. D.

    2017-12-01

    Studies on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts have utilized salt-marsh peats and the macro- and microfossils preserved within them to reconstruct high-resolution records of relative sea level (RSL). We followed this approach to investigate spatial and temporal RSL variability in southern New England, USA, by reconstructing 3,300 years of RSL change in lower Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island. After reconnaisance of lower Narragansett Bay salt marshes, we recovered a 3.4m core at Fox Hill Marsh on Conanicut Island. We enumerated foraminiferal assemblages at 3cm intervals throughout the length of the core and we assessed trends in δ13C at 5 cm resolution. We developed a composite chronology (average resolution of ±50 years for a 1 cm slice) using 30 AMS radiocarbon dates and historical chronological markers of known age (137Cs, heavy metals, Pb isotopes, pollen). We assessed core compaction (mechanical compression) by collecting compaction-free basal-peat samples and using a published decompaction model. We employed fossil foraminifera and bulk sediment δ13C to estimate paleomarsh elevation using a Bayesian transfer function trained by a previously-published regional modern foraminiferal dataset. We combined the proxy RSL reconstruction and local tide-gauge measurements from Newport, Rhode Island (1931 CE to present) and estimated past rates of RSL change using an Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model. Both basal peats and the decompaction model suggest that our RSL record is not significantly compacted. RSL rose from -3.9 m at 1250 BCE reaching -0.4 m at 1850 CE (1 mm/yr). We removed a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) contribution of 0.9 mm/yr based on a local GPS site to facilitate comparison to regional records. The detrended sea-level reconstruction shows multiple departures from stable sea level (0 mm/yr) over the last 3,300 years and agrees with prior reconstructions from the US Atlantic coast showing evidence for sea-level changes that

  6. Caribbean Sea Level Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Crespo Jones, H.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past 500 years almost 100 tsunamis have been observed in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic, with at least 3510 people having lost their lives to this hazard since 1842. Furthermore, with the dramatic increase in population and infrastructure along the Caribbean coasts, today, millions of coastal residents, workers and visitors are vulnerable to tsunamis. The UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunamis and other Coastal Hazards for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) was established in 2005 to coordinate and advance the regional tsunami warning system. The CARIBE EWS focuses on four areas/working groups: (1) Monitoring and Warning, (2) Hazard and Risk Assessment, (3) Communication and (4) Education, Preparedness and Readiness. The sea level monitoring component is under Working Group 1. Although in the current system, it's the seismic data and information that generate the initial tsunami bulletins, it is the data from deep ocean buoys (DARTS) and the coastal sea level gauges that are critical for the actual detection and forecasting of tsunamis impact. Despite multiple efforts and investments in the installation of sea level stations in the region, in 2004 there were only a handful of sea level stations operational in the region (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Bahamas). Over the past 5 years there has been a steady increase in the number of stations operating in the Caribbean region. As of mid 2012 there were 7 DARTS and 37 coastal gauges with additional ones being installed or funded. In order to reach the goal of 100 operational coastal sea level stations in the Caribbean, the CARIBE EWS recognizes also the importance of maintaining the current stations. For this, a trained workforce in the region for the installation, operation and data analysis and quality control is considered to be critical. Since 2008, three training courses have been offered to the sea level station operators and data analysts. Other

  7. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  8. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Cronin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1 and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1, and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1. Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.. Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1 followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  9. Nature of global large-scale sea level variability in relation to atmospheric forcing: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng

    1998-03-01

    The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equation model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to January 1994. The physical nature of sea level's temporal variability from periods of days to a year is examined on the basis of spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements. The study elucidates and diagnoses the inhomogeneous physics of sea level change in space and frequency domain. At midlatitudes, large-scale sea level variability is primarily due to steric changes associated with the seasonal heating and cooling cycle of the surface layer. In comparison, changes in the tropics and high latitudes are mainly wind driven. Wind-driven variability exhibits a strong latitudinal dependence in itself. Wind-driven changes are largely baroclinic in the tropics but barotropic at higher latitudes. Baroclinic changes are dominated by the annual harmonic of the first baroclinic mode and is largest off the equator; variabilities associated with equatorial waves are smaller in comparison. Wind-driven barotropic changes exhibit a notable enhancement over several abyssal plains in the Southern Ocean, which is likely due to resonant planetary wave modes in basins semienclosed by discontinuities in potential vorticity. Otherwise, barotropic sea level changes are typically dominated by high frequencies with as much as half the total variance in periods shorter than 20 days, reflecting the frequency spectra of wind stress curl. Implications of the findings with regards to analyzing observations and data assimilation are discussed.

  10. Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

  11. PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Alan D.

    2009-12-01

    When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

  12. Relationship between subjective fall risk assessment and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people

    OpenAIRE

    Shimada, Hiroyuki; Suzukawa, Megumi; Ishizaki, Tatsuro; Kobayashi, Kumiko; Kim, Hunkyung; Suzuki, Takao

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Objective measurements can be used to identify people with risks of falls, but many frail elderly adults cannot complete physical performance tests. The study examined the relationship between a subjective risk rating of specific tasks (SRRST) to screen for fall risks and falls and fall-related fractures in frail elderly people. Methods The SRRST was investigated in 5,062 individuals aged 65 years or older who were utilized day-care services. The SRRST comprised 7 dichotom...

  13. Unexplained Falls Are Frequent in Patients with Fall-Related Injury Admitted to Orthopaedic Wards: The UFO Study (Unexplained Falls in Older Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mussi Chiara

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the incidence of unexplained falls in elderly patients affected by fall-related fractures admitted to orthopaedic wards, we recruited 246 consecutive patients older than 65 (mean age 82±7 years, range 65–101. Falls were defined “accidental” (fall explained by a definite accidental cause, “medical” (fall caused directly by a specific medical disease, “dementia-related” (fall in patients affected by moderate-severe dementia, and “unexplained” (nonaccidental falls, not related to a clear medical or drug-induced cause or with no apparent cause. According to the anamnestic features of the event, older patients had a lower tendency to remember the fall. Patients with accidental fall remember more often the event. Unexplained falls were frequent in both groups of age. Accidental falls were more frequent in younger patients, while dementia-related falls were more common in the older ones. Patients with unexplained falls showed a higher number of depressive symptoms. In a multivariate analysis a higher GDS and syncopal spells were independent predictors of unexplained falls. In conclusion, more than one third of all falls in patients hospitalized in orthopaedic wards were unexplained, particularly in patients with depressive symptoms and syncopal spells. The identification of fall causes must be evaluated in older patients with a fall-related injury.

  14. Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Fernanda Adame, Maria; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

    2015-01-01

    Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

  15. Exploring the relationship between fall risk-increasing drugs and fall-related fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Winter, Sabrina; Vanwynsberghe, Sarah; Foulon, Veerle; Dejaeger, Eddy; Flamaing, Johan; Sermon, An; Van der Linden, Lorenz; Spriet, Isabel

    2016-04-01

    Hospital admissions due to fall-related fractures are a major problem in the aging population. Several risk factors have been identified, including drug use. Most studies often retrieved prescription-only drugs from national databases. These are associated with some limitations as they do not always reliably reproduce the complete patient's active drug list. To evaluate the association between the number of FRIDs intake identified by a standardised medication reconciliation process and a fall-related fracture leading to a hospital admission in older adults. The first cohort has been recruited from one traumatology ward of a tertiary teaching hospital in Belgium and the second cohort has been recruited from 11 community pharmacies in Belgium. A prospective study with two individually matched cohorts was performed. Adult patients (≥75 years) admitted with an injury due to a fall were included in the first cohort (faller group). The second cohort consisted of patients who did not suffer from a fall within the last 6 months (non-faller group). Matching was performed for age, gender, place of residence and use of a walking aid. In both groups, clinical pharmacists and undergraduate pharmacy students obtained the medication history, using a standardised approach. A list of drugs considered to increase the risk of falling was created. It included cardiovascular drugs and drugs acting on the nervous system. A linear mixed model was used to compare the number of fall risk-increasing drugs between fallers and non-fallers. The number of fall risk-increasing drugs in a faller versus a non-faller group. Sixty-one patients were matched with 121 non-fallers. Patients received on average 3.1 ± 2.1 and 3.2 ± 1.8 fall risk-increasing drugs in the faller and in the non-faller group, respectively. The mean number of fall risk-increasing drugs was comparable in both groups (p = 0.844), even after adjusting for alcohol consumption, fear of falling, vision and foot problems (p = 0

  16. Perceptions of Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Possible Consequences Relate Mainly to Self-Valuation of Science Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Pittfield, Taryn; Jeitner, Christian

    2016-05-01

    This study examines perceptions of climate change and sea level rise in New Jersey residents in 2012 and 2014. Different surveys have shown declines in interest and concern about climate change and sea level rise. Climate change and increasing temperatures have an anthropogenic cause, which relates to energy use, making it important to examine whether people believe that it is occurring. In late 2012 New Jersey experienced Super storm Sandy, one of the worst hurricanes in its history, followed by public discussion and media coverage of stronger more frequent storms due to climate change. Using structured interviews, we tested the null hypotheses that there were no differences in perceptions of 1260 interviewees as a function of year of the survey, age, gender, years of education, and self-evaluation of science knowledge (on a scale of 1 to 5). In 2012 460 of 639 (72%) rated "global warming occurring" as "certain" (#4) or "very certain" (#5) compared with 453 of 621 (73%) in 2014. For "due to human activities" the numbers of "certain" or "very certain" were 71% in 2012, and 67% in 2014 and for sea level rise the numbers were 64% and 70%. There were some inconsistent between-year differences with higher ratings in 2012 for 3 outcomes and higher ratings in 2014 for 5 outcomes. However, for 25 questions relative to climate change, sea level rise, and the personal and ecological effects of sea level rise, self-evaluation of science knowledge, independent of years of education, was the factor that entered 23 of the models, accounting for the most variability in ratings. People who believed they had a "high knowledge" (#4) or "very high knowledge" (#5) of science rated all issues as more important than did those people who rated their own scientific knowledge as average or below average.

  17. Geochronology and subsurface stratigraphy of Pukapuka and Rakahanga atolls, Cook Islands: Late Quaternary reef growth and sea level history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, S.C.; Hein, J.R.; Hausmann, R.; Radtke, U.

    1992-01-01

    Eustatic sea-level cycles superposed on thermal subsidence of an atoll produce layers of high sea-level reefs separated by erosional unconformities. Coral samples from these reefs from cores drilled to 50 m beneath the lagoons of Pukapuka and Rakahanga atolls, northern Cook Islands give electron spin resonance (ESR) and U-series ages ranging from the Holocene to 600,000 yr B.P. Subgroups of these ages and the stratigraphic position of their bounding unconformities define at least 5 periods of reef growth and high sea-level (0-9000 yr B.P., 125,000-180,000 yr B.P., 180,000-230,000 yr B.P., 300,000-460,000 yr B.P., 460,000-650,000 yr B.P.). Only two ages fall within error of the last interglacial high sea-level stand (???125,000-135,000 yr B.P.). This paucity of ages may result from extensive erosion of the last intergracial reef. In addition, post-depositional isotope exchange may have altered the time ages of three coral samples to apparent ages that fall within glacial stage 6. For the record to be preserved, vertical accretion during rising sea-level must compensate for surface lowering from erosion during sea-level lowstands and subsidence of the atoll; erosion rates (6-63 cm/1000 yr) can therefore be calculated from reef accretion rates (100-400 cm/1000 yr), subsidence rates (2-6 cm/1000 yr), and the duration of island submergence (8-15% of the last 600,000 yr). The stratigraphy of coral ages indicates island subsidence rates of 4.5 ?? 2.8 cm/1000 yr for both islands. A model of reef growth and erosion based on the stratigraphy of the Cook Islands atolls suggests average subsidence and erosion rates of between 3-6 and 15-20 cm/1000 yr, respectively. ?? 1992.

  18. Fall Risk Assessment Predicts Fall-Related Injury, Hip Fracture, and Head Injury in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Martin; Eriksson, Joel; Larsson, Berit; Odén, Anders; Johansson, Helena; Lorentzon, Mattias

    2016-11-01

    To investigate the role of a fall risk assessment, using the Downton Fall Risk Index (DFRI), in predicting fall-related injury, fall-related head injury and hip fracture, and death, in a large cohort of older women and men residing in Sweden. Cross sectional observational study. Sweden. Older adults (mean age 82.4 ± 7.8) who had a fall risk assessment using the DFRI at baseline (N = 128,596). Information on all fall-related injuries, all fall-related head injuries and hip fractures, and all-cause mortality was collected from the Swedish Patient Register and Cause of Death Register. The predictive role of DFRI was calculated using Poisson regression models with age, sex, height, weight, and comorbidities as covariates, taking time to outcome or end of study into account. During a median follow-up of 253 days (interquartile range 90-402 days) (>80,000 patient-years), 15,299 participants had a fall-related injury, 2,864 a head injury, and 2,557 a hip fracture, and 23,307 died. High fall risk (DFRI ≥3) independently predicted fall-related injury (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.39-1.49), hip fracture (HR = 1.51, 95% CI =1.38-1.66), head injury (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.03-1.22), and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.35-1.43). DFRI more strongly predicted head injury (HR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.21-1.36 vs HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04-1.11) and hip fracture (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.30-1.53 vs HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.05-1.11) in 70-year old men than in 90-year old women (P Fall risk assessment using DFRI independently predicts fall-related injury, fall-related head injury and hip fracture, and all-cause mortality in older men and women, indicating its clinical usefulness to identify individuals who would benefit from interventions. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

  19. Falls efficacy, postural balance, and risk for falls in older adults with falls-related emergency department visits: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pua, Yong-Hao; Ong, Peck-Hoon; Clark, Ross Allan; Matcher, David B; Lim, Edwin Choon-Wyn

    2017-12-21

    Risk for falls in older adults has been associated with falls efficacy (self-perceived confidence in performing daily physical activities) and postural balance, but available evidence is limited and mixed. We examined the interaction between falls efficacy and postural balance and its association with future falls. We also investigated the association between falls efficacy and gait decline. Falls efficacy, measured by the Modified Falls Efficacy Scale (MFES), and standing postural balance, measured using computerized posturography on a balance board, were obtained from 247 older adults with a falls-related emergency department visit. Six-month prospective fall rate and habitual gait speed at 6 months post baseline assessment were also measured. In multivariable proportional odds analyses adjusted for potential confounders, falls efficacy modified the association between postural balance and fall risk (interaction P = 0.014): increasing falls efficacy accentuated the increased fall risk related to poor postural balance. Low baseline falls efficacy was strongly predictive of worse gait speed (0.11 m/s [0.06 to 0.16] slower gait speed per IQR decrease in MFES; P falls efficacy but poor postural balance were at greater risk for falls than those with low falls efficacy; however, low baseline falls efficacy was strongly associated with worse gait function at follow-up. Further research into these subgroups of older adults is warranted. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01713543 .

  20. A short regression during the last interglacial (5e) sea level high-stand, along the reef coast of Egypt: a possible evidence for high-frequency glacio-eustatic variations during pleistocene times?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plaziat, J.C.; Orszag-sperber, F.; Baltzer, F.; Purser, B.H.; Reyss, J.L.; Choukri, A.

    1998-01-01

    In the most stable localities of the NW Red Sea-Gulf of Suez, the Last Interglacial shore deposits have been dated (α Th/U) and give evidence of a two-stages 5.5 (5e) + 8/5 m transgression subdivided by a 10 m (at least) relative sea-level fall. The respective ages of the initial reef and beach unit and about 3 m lower bay-lagoon-gypsum salina deposits are not discriminable with the available dating method. This high-frequency oscillation during 5.5 high stand would be tentatively interpreted as a glacio-eustatic sea-level coinciding with the 5.52 event of δ 18 O isotopic terminology. (authors)

  1. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivien Jørgensen

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017 Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108–113

  2. Does functional capacity, fall risk awareness and physical activity level predict falls in older adults in different age groups?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Natália Boneti; Rodacki, Andre Luiz Felix; Pereira, Gléber; Bento, Paulo Cesar Barauce

    2018-04-11

    The aims of this study were to examine whether: i) functional capacity and physical activity level differ between fallers and non-fallers older adults, by controlling for fall risk awareness; ii) functional capacity, fall risk awareness and physical activity differ between fallers and non-fallers older adults, by controlling for age; iii) variables and which may predict falls in different age groups. 1826 older adults performed a series of functional tests and reported their fall episodes, fall risk awareness and physical activity level. The overall incidence of falls was high (40.2%), and falls risk awareness scores reduced with age. The older adults with greater falls risk awareness and non-fallers presented better scores in all functional tests and physical activity level (P age groups and differed between fallers and non-fallers, irrespective of age group (P age groups (odds ranging: 1.05-1.09). Handgrip strength and balance scores predicted falls until 79 years (OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 1.01-1.06). The physical activity level predicted falls up to 70 years (OR = 1.09, 95%CI = 1.06-1.12). Functional mobility was able to predict falls up to 80 years (OR = 1.06, 95%CI = 1.01-1.08). Therefore, according to age, functional capacity, physical activity level and falls risk awareness can be a predictor of falls in older adults. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

  4. Total Water Level Fun Facts: The Relative Contribution of Extreme Total Water Levels Along the US West Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafin, K.; Ruggiero, P.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2016-02-01

    In the fall of 2014, parts of the US West Coast endured some of the highest monthly mean sea level anomalies on record, likely due to the presence of "the blob" (Bond et al., 2015), an anomalously warm water mass in the NE Pacific. However, despite the significantly above average water levels, the coastline experienced only marginal coastal flooding and erosion hazards because the ensuing winter lacked significant storms, underscoring the fact that extreme total water levels (TWLs) are compound events. To better understand how several individual processes combine to cause devastating coastal hazards, we investigate the relative contribution that each component (waves, tides, and non-tidal residuals) has on extreme TWLs on sandy beaches. Water level records along the US West Coast are decomposed into mean sea level, astronomical tide, and non-tidal residuals (NTRs). The NTR is further split into an intra-annual seasonal signal, monthly mean sea level anomalies (inter-annual variability), and meteorological surge. TWL time series are then generated by combining water levels with wave runup, computed using wave data and beach morphology. We use this data-driven, structural function approach to investigate the spatial variability of the relative contribution of each component to the maximum TWL event on record. We also use a probabilistic, full simulation TWL model (Serafin and Ruggiero, 2014) to generate multiple, synthetic TWL records, to explore the relative contribution of each component to extreme TWL return levels. We assess the sensitivity to local beach morphology by computing TWLs for a range of observed beach slopes. Extreme TWLs are higher in Oregon and Washington than in California. Wave runup typically comprises > 50% of the TWL signal, while NTRs often compose < 5%, illustrating the importance wave climate has on the potential for extreme TWLs. While waves are typically larger in the North, California experiences greater contributions to extreme TWLs from

  5. Sea Level Changes: Determination and Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; DeRonde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

    The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for océanographie and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wroblewski and by Pasaric and Orlic, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El- Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

  6. Chronology of Fluctuating Sea Levels since the Triassic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haq, Bilal U.; Hardenbol, Jan; Vail, Peter R.

    1987-03-01

    Advances in sequence stratigraphy and the development of depositional models have helped explain the origin of genetically related sedimentary packages during sea level cycles. These concepts have provided the basis for the recognition of sea level events in subsurface data and in outcrops of marine sediments around the world. Knowledge of these events has led to a new generation of Mesozoic and Cenozoic global cycle charts that chronicle the history of sea level fluctuations during the past 250 million years in greater detail than was possible from seismic-stratigraphic data alone. An effort has been made to develop a realistic and accurate time scale and widely applicable chronostratigraphy and to integrate depositional sequences documented in public domain outcrop sections from various basins with this chronostratigraphic frame-work. A description of this approach and an account of the results, illustrated by sea level cycle charts of the Cenozoic, Cretaceous, Jurassic, and Triassic intervals, are presented.

  7. Sea-level proxies in Holocene raised beach ridge deposits (Greenland) revealed by ground-penetrating radar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Lars; Bendixen, Mette; Kroon, Aart; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Clemmensen, Lars B; Weβling, Ronny; Elberling, Bo

    2017-04-19

    Identification of sea-level proxies is important for reconstruction of past sea-level variation. Methods for reconstructing Holocene relative sea-level curves are crucial for quantification of the impact of Greenland ice thickness variation on global sea level and vertical land movement. Arctic beach ridges constitute important potential archives of sea-level variation. However, their surface morphology may have undergone modification since deposition due to freezing/thawing processes and erosion, and their morphology may therefore not be trustworthy for sea-level reconstruction. Therefore, geophysical imaging is used to examine the internal structures of the beach ridges and to define a sea-level proxy unaffected by surface processes. The GPR reflections from study sites in West and South Greenland show deposition of beachface deposits and upper shoreface deposits; the contact between steeply dipping beachface reflections and less-dipping shoreface reflections is used as sea-level proxy. Numerous points are identified along GPR transects facilitating reconstruction of relative sea-level variation of hitherto unprecedented resolution. Erosional events and deformation caused by freezing/thawing processes are clearly delineated. The approach constitutes a solid base for reconstruction of relative sea-level curves affected by a well-defined vertical land movement history since the studied beach ridge systems represent long time intervals and only relatively small spatial extents.

  8. Effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, S.K.; Pritchett, W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)

    2008-07-01

    Natural gas hydrates occur in oceanic sediments and in permafrost regions around the world. As a greenhouse gas, large amounts of methane released from the global hydrate reservoir would have a significant impact on Earth's climate. The role of methane released by hydrate dissociation in climate change is uncertain. However, changes in global climate such as glaciation and warming can destabilize the hydrates. During the last glacial maximum, the sea level dropped about 100 meters. It has been suggested that the sea-level fall was associated with gas hydrate instability and seafloor slumping. This paper investigated the effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea level on gas hydrate stability and on gas venting at the seafloor. A one-dimensional numerical computer model (simulator) was developed to describe methane hydrate formation, decomposition, reformation, and distribution with depth below the seafloor in the marine environment. The simulator was utilized to model hydrate distributions at two sites, notably Blake Ridge, located offshore South Carolina and Hydrate Ridge, located off the coast of Oregon. The numerical models for the two sites were conditioned by matching the sulfate, chlorinity, and hydrate distribution measurements. The effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability were then investigated. It was concluded that for Blake Ridge, changes in hydrate concentration were small. Both the changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level led to a substantial increase in gas venting at the seafloor for Hydrate Ridge. 17 refs., 8 figs.

  9. Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majewski, Jedrzej; Pham, Dat; Meltzner, Aron; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin; Heng, Shu Yun; Warrick, David

    2015-04-01

    Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls Jędrzej M. Majewski 1, Dat T. Pham1, Aron J. Meltzner 1, Adam D. Switzer 1, Benjamin P. Horton2, Shu Yun Heng1, David Warrick3, 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 2 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA 3 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Coral microatolls can be used to study relative sea-level change at multidecadal timescales associated with vertical land movements, climate induced sea-level rise and other oceanographic phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with the assumption that the highest level of survival (HLS) of coral microatolls track sea level over the course of their lifetimes. In this study we compare microatoll records covering from as early as 1883 through 2013, from two sites in Indonesia, with long records (>20 years) from proximal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and other sea-level reconstructions. We compared the HLS time series derived from open-ocean and moated (or ponded) microatolls on tectonically stable Belitung Island and a potentially tectonically active setting in Mapur Island, with sea-level reconstructions for 1950-2011. The sea-level reconstructions are based on ground and satellite measurements, combining a tide model with the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model. Our results confirm that open-ocean microatolls do track low water levels at multi decadal time scales and can be used as a proxy for relative sea level (RSL) over time. However, microatolls that are even partially moated are unsuitable and do not track RSL; rather, their growth patterns likely reflect changes in the elevation of the sill of the local pond, as reported by earlier authors. Our ongoing efforts will include an attempt to recognize similarities in moated

  10. Present day sea level changes: observations and climatic causes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, A.

    2007-01-01

    After a few thousand years of relative stability, sea level has risen of about 20 cm since the beginning of the 20. century. It currently rises at an average rate of about 3 mm/yr in response to global warming. About half of this rate is directly attributed to thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, while the other half is mainly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets. Satellite observations show that sea level rise is highly non-uniform. (author)

  11. Evidence of exceptional oyster-reef resilience to fluctuations in sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridge, Justin T; Rodriguez, Antonio B; Fodrie, F Joel

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystems at the land-sea interface are vulnerable to rising sea level. Intertidal habitats must maintain their surface elevations with respect to sea level to persist via vertical growth or landward retreat, but projected rates of sea-level rise may exceed the accretion rates of many biogenic habitats. While considerable attention is focused on climate change over centennial timescales, relative sea level also fluctuates dramatically (10-30 cm) over month-to-year timescales due to interacting oceanic and atmospheric processes. To assess the response of oyster-reef ( Crassostrea virginica ) growth to interannual variations in mean sea level (MSL) and improve long-term forecasts of reef response to rising seas, we monitored the morphology of constructed and natural intertidal reefs over 5 years using terrestrial lidar. Timing of reef scans created distinct periods of high and low relative water level for decade-old reefs ( n  = 3) constructed in 1997 and 2000, young reefs ( n  = 11) constructed in 2011 and one natural reef (approximately 100 years old). Changes in surface elevation were related to MSL trends. Decade-old reefs achieved 2 cm/year growth, which occurred along higher elevations when MSL increased. Young reefs experienced peak growth (6.7 cm/year) at a lower elevation that coincided with a drop in MSL. The natural reef exhibited considerable loss during the low MSL of the first time step but grew substantially during higher MSL through the second time step, with growth peaking (4.3 cm/year) at MSL, reoccupying the elevations previously lost. Oyster reefs appear to be in dynamic equilibrium with short-term (month-to-year) fluctuations in sea level, evidencing notable resilience to future changes to sea level that surpasses other coastal biogenic habitat types. These growth patterns support the presence of a previously defined optimal growth zone that shifts correspondingly with changes in MSL, which can help guide oyster-reef conservation and

  12. Risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 85 years of age and older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundstrom, Anna C; Guse, Clare E; Layde, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Falls are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. No previous studies on risk factors for falls have focused on adults 85 years and older, the most rapidly growing segment of adults. We examined demographic, health, and behavioral risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 65 years and older, with a particular focus on adults 85 years and older. We analyzed self-reported information from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2008. Data was available for 120,923 people aged 65 or older and 12,684 people aged 85 or older. Of those aged 85 or older, 21.3% reported at least one fall in the past 3 months and 7.2% reported at least one fall related injury requiring medical care or limiting activity for a day or longer. Below average general health, male sex, perceived insufficient sleep, health problems requiring assistive devices, alcohol consumption, increasing body mass index and history of stroke were all independently associated with a greater risk of falls or fall related injuries. The greater risk of falling in those 85 years and older appeared to be due to the deterioration of overall health status with age; among those with excellent overall health status, there was no greater risk of falling in adults 85 years and older compared to those 65-84 years of age. Our results suggest that those with risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries may be appropriate targets for evidence-based fall prevention programs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk of fall-related injury in people with lower limb amputations: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christopher Kevin; Chihuri, Stanford T; Li, Guohua

    2016-01-01

    To assess fall-related injury risk and risk factors in people with lower limb amputation. Prospective longitudinal cohort with follow-up every 6 months for up to 41 months. Community-dwelling adults with lower limb amputations of any etiology and level recruited from support groups and prosthetic clinics. Demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained by self-reported questionnaire and telephone or in-person follow-up. Fall-related injury incidence requiring medical care per person-month and adjusted hazard ratio of fall-related injury were calculated using multivariable proportional hazards regression modeling. A total of 41 subjects, with 782 follow-up person-months in total, had 11 fall-related injury incidents (14.1/1,000 person-months). During follow-up, 56.1% of subjects reported falling and 26.8% reported fall-related injury. Multivariable proportional hazard modeling showed that women were nearly 6 times more likely as men to experience fall-related injury and people of non-white race were 13 times more likely than people of white race to experience fall-related injury. The final predictive model also included vascular amputation and age. Risk of fall-related injury requiring medical care in people with lower limb amputation appears to be higher than in older adult inpatients. Intervention programs to prevent fall-related injury in people with lower limb amputation should target women and racial minorities.

  14. Predicted radionuclide release from reactor-related unenclosed solid objects dumped in the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mount, M.E.; Lynn, N.M.; Warden, J.M.

    1996-06-01

    Between 1978 and 1991 reactor-related solid radioactive waste was dumped by the former Soviet Union as unenclosed objects in the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, and the Sea of Japan. This paper presented estimates for the current (1994) inventory of activation and corrosion products contained in the reactor-related unenclosed solid objects. In addition, simple models derived for prediction of radionuclide release from marine reactors dumped in the Kara Sea are applied to certain of the dumped objects to provide estimates of radionuclide release to the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, and Sea of Japan environments. For the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, total release rates start below 0.01 GBq yr -1 and over 1,000 years, fall to 100 Bq yr -1 . In the Sea of Japan, the total release rate starts just above 1 GBq yr - 1 , dropping off to a level less than 0.1 GBq yr -1 , extending past the year 4,000

  15. Sandy berm and beach-ridge formation in relation to extreme sea-levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B; Kroon, Aart

    2013-01-01

    The formation of berms and their transformation into beach ridges in a micro-tidal environment is coupled to wave run-up and overtopping during extreme sea levels. A straight-forward comparison between extreme sea levels due to storm-surges and active berm levels is impossible in the semi...... prograding spit on the south-eastern Baltic shores of Zealand, Denmark. The modern, sandy beach at this location consists of a beachface with a shallow incipient berm, a mature berm, and a dune-covered beach ridge. It borders a beach-ridge plain to the west, where more than 20 N–S oriented beach ridges...... and swales are present. Measured water-level data from 1991 to 2012 and topographical observations, carried out during fair weather period and during a storm event, provided the basis for a conceptual model exhibiting berm formation and transformation into the local beach-ridge system. The character...

  16. Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Greenan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA.

  17. Fall-related self-efficacy, not balance and mobility performance, is related to accidental falls in chronic stroke survivors with low bone mineral density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, M Y C; Eng, J J

    2008-07-01

    Chronic stroke survivors with low hip bone density are particularly prone to fractures. This study shows that fear of falling is independently associated with falls in this population. Thus, fear of falling should not be overlooked in the prevention of fragility fractures in these patients. Chronic stroke survivors with low bone mineral density (BMD) are particularly prone to fragility fractures. The purpose of this study was to identify the determinants of balance, mobility and falls in this sub-group of stroke patients. Thirty-nine chronic stroke survivors with low hip BMD (T-score fall-related self-efficacy. Any falls in the past 12 months were also recorded. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify the determinants of balance and mobility performance, whereas logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of falls. Multiple regression analysis revealed that after adjusting for basic demographics, fall-related self-efficacy remained independently associated with balance/mobility performance (R2 = 0.494, P fall-related self-efficacy, but not balance and mobility performance, was a significant determinant of falls (odds ratio: 0.18, P = 0.04). Fall-related self-efficacy, but not mobility and balance performance, was the most important determinant of accidental falls. This psychological factor should not be overlooked in the prevention of fragility fractures among chronic stroke survivors with low hip BMD.

  18. The Glacial-Interglacial summer monsoon recorded in southwest Sulawesi speleothems: Evidence for sea level thresholds driving tropical monsoon strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimbrough, A. K.; Gagan, M. K.; Dunbar, G. B.; Krause, C.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Hantoro, W. S.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Shen, C. C.; Sun, H.; Cai, B.; Rifai, H.

    2016-12-01

    Southwest Sulawesi lies within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), at the center of atmospheric convection for two of the largest circulation cells on the planet, the meridional Hadley Cell and zonal Indo-Pacific Walker Circulation. Due to the geographic coincidence of these circulation cells, southwest Sulawesi serves as a hotspot for changes in tropical Pacific climate variability and Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) strength over glacial-interglacial (G-I) timescales. The work presented here spans 386 - 127 ky BP, including glacial terminations IV ( 340 ky BP) and both phases of TIII (TIII 248 ky BP and TIIIa 217 ky BP). This record, along with previous work from southwest Sulawesi spanning the last 40 kyr, reveals coherent climatic features over three complete G-I cycles. The multi-stalagmite Sulawesi speleothem δ18O record demonstrates that on G-I timescales, the strength of the AISM is most sensitive to changes in sea level and its impact on the regional distribution of land and shallow ocean. Stalagmite δ18O and trace element (Mg/Ca) data indicate a rapid increase in rainfall at glacial terminations and wet interglacials. TIV, TIII, TIIIa, and TI are each characterized by an abrupt 3‰ decrease in δ18O that coincides with sea level rise and flooding of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Strong evidence for a sea level (flooding/exposure) threshold is found throughout the southwest Sulawesi record. This is most clearly demonstrated over the period 230 - 212 ky BP (MIS 7d-7c), when a sea level fall to only -80 to -60 m for 10 kyr results in a weakened AISM and glacial conditions, followed by a full termination. Taken together, both glaciations and glacial terminations imply a sea level threshold driving the AISM between two primary levels of intensity (`interglacial' & `glacial'). These massive, sea-level driven shifts in AISM strength are superimposed on precession-scale variability associated with boreal fall insolation at the equator, indicating

  19. Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States : Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haer, Toon; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kearney, Michael; Moll, Henk

    2013-01-01

    Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the

  20. Land Sea Level Difference Impacts on Socio-Hydrological System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.; Oh, W. S.; Sangwan, N.

    2016-12-01

    Allowing moderate shocks can be a new solution that helps to build adaptive capacity in society is a rising issue. In Social-Ecological field, Carpenter et al. (2015) suggested that exposure to short-term variability leads to long term resilience by enlarging safe operating space (SOS). The SOS refers to the boundary of favorable state that ecosystem can maintain resilience without imposing certain conditions (Carpenter et al. 2015). Our work is motivated by defining SOS in socio-hydrological system(SHS) because it can be an alternative way for flood management beyond optimized or robust flood control. In this context, large flood events that make system to cross the SOS should be fully managed, but frequent small floods need to be allowed if the system is located in SOS. Especially, land sea level change is critical factor to change flood resilience since it is one of the most substantial disturbance that changes the entire boundary of SOS. In order to have broader perspective of vulnerability and resilience of the coastal region, it is crucial to understand the land sea level dynamics changed with human activities and natural variances.The risk of land sea level change has been researched , but most of these researches have focused on explain cause and effect of land sea level change, paying little attention to its dynamics interacts with human activities. Thus, an objective of this research is to study dynamics of human work, land sea level change and resilience to flood with SOS approach. Especially, we focus on the case in Ganges-Brahmaputra, Bangladesh where has high vulnerability to flood, and is faced with relatively rapid land sea level change problem. To acheive the goal, this study will develop a stylized model by extending the human - flood interaction model combined with relative sea level difference equation. The model describes the dynamics of flood protection system which is changed by SHS and land sea level chage. we will focus on the aggradation

  1. Physical activity level and fall risk among community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, Sok Teng; Balaraman, Thirumalaya

    2017-07-01

    [Purpose] To find the physical activity level and fall risk among the community-dwelling Malaysian older adults and determine the correlation between them. [Subjects and Methods] A cross-sectional study was conducted in which, the physical activity level was evaluated using the Rapid Assessment of Physical Activity questionnaire and fall risk with Fall Risk Assessment Tool. Subjects recruited were 132 community-dwelling Malaysian older adults using the convenience sampling method. [Results] The majority of the participants were under the category of under-active regular light-activities and most of them reported low fall risk. The statistical analysis using Fisher's exact test did not show a significant correlation between physical activity level and fall risk. [Conclusion] The majority of community-dwelling Malaysian older adults are performing some form of physical activity and in low fall risk category. But this study did not find any significant correlation between physical activity level and fall risk among community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia.

  2. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    Data from the two ESA satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 are used in global and regional analysis of sea level and sea surface temperature trends over the last, 7.8 years. T he ERS satellites and in the future the ENVISAT satellite provide unique opportunity for monitoring both changes in sea level and sea...

  3. The dynamic nature of relative sea level in Southeast Asia: tectonic effects and human impacts (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, E.; Qiu, Q.; Feng, L.; Lubis, A.; Meltzner, A. J.; Tsang, L. L.; Daly, P.; McCaughey, J.; Banerjee, P.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.

    2013-12-01

    Tectonic changes can have significant effects on crustal deformation, the geoid, and relative sea level (RSL). Indeed, the tectonic impacts on RSL in some regions can be greater than those predicted as a result of climate change. In the case of earthquakes, these changes can occur suddenly, as coastlines uplift or subside by up to many meters. The changes can also occur over many decades as a result of interseismic or postseismic processes, or periodically in the form of transient slow-slip events. Although these effects are (mostly) recovered elastically over the course of the earthquake cycle, they are occurring in the context of ever-increasing populations living along affected coastlines, particularly the case in areas such as SE Asia. The societal effects of these tectonic-induced sea-level changes are therefore becoming increasingly significant, and important to consider in future projections for sea-level change. Additionally, tide-gauge and gravity measurements made in tectonically active areas cannot be interpreted without consideration and modeling of the tectonic setting. These facts highlight the need for accurate geodetic measurements of land-height change. Along the Sumatra subduction zone, a series of great earthquakes have occurred over the last decade, along with numerous moderate and smaller earthquakes. These, and their ensuing postseismic deformation, have reshaped regional coastlines. We will show visualization of land height changes using a decade of Sumatra GPS Array (SuGAr) data, and related tectonic models, that demonstrate dramatically the ups and downs of land elevation close to the earthquake sources. Vertical coseismic displacements as large as ~2.9 m have been recorded by the SuGAr (an uplift at Nias, during the 2005 Mw 8.6 earthquake), and vertical postseismic rates on the order of tens of mm/yr or greater (e.g., in northern Aceh, one station has been uplifting at a rate of ~34 mm/yr since the 2004 Mw 9.2 earthquake, while in southern

  4. Retinal vessel diameters in relation to hematocrit variation during acclimatization of highlanders to sea level altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Peter Kristian; Sander, Birgit; Zubieta-Calleja, Gustavo

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE: To examine variations in retinal vessel diameters during acclimatization of native highlanders to normobaric normoxia at sea level. METHODS: Fifteen healthy residents of the greater La Paz region in Bolivia (3600 m above sea level) were examined thrice over a 72-day period, after having...... traveled by airplane to Copenhagen, Denmark, near sea level. RESULTS: In the study subjects, hematocrit decreased from 49.6% (day 2) to 45.9% (P = 0.0066, day 23) and 41.7% (P ... diameters were indistinguishable from baseline after 72 days. No funduscopic signs of retinopathy were observed. Arterial blood pressure remained stable throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: Although a 16% reduction in hematocrit occurred between days 2 and 72 after arrival at sea level, the only significant...

  5. Sea-level related resedimentation processes on the northern slope of Little Bahama Bank (Middle Pleistocene to Holocene)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lantzsch, H.; Roth, S.; Reijmer, J.J.G.

    2007-01-01

    -slope depositional environment. The sediment composition indicates sea-level related deposition processes for the past 375000 years (marine isotope stages 1 to 11). The sediments consist of: (i) periplatform ooze (fine-grained particles of shallow-water and pelagic origin) with moderate variations in carbonate...

  6. Level of physical activity and accidental falls in elderly: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Cristina Passarella Brêtas

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyze studies evaluating the association between the level of physical activity and the occurrence of accidental falls in the elderly. A systematic literature review of the LILACS and MEDLINE databases was conducted. As inclusion criteria, complete scientific articles investigating subjects older than 60 years, published in Portuguese, English or Spanish, were selected. Twenty-nine articles were retrieved, five from LILACS (1982 to 2007, two from MEDLINE (1966 to 1996, and 22 from MEDLINE (from 1997 to 2007. Ten (35% articles were selected based on the inclusion criteria and 19 (65% were excluded. A cross-sectional design was the most frequent type of study (60%. The studies identified suggest an association between the level of physical activity and factors related to the occurrence of falls such as functional disability, quality of life and independence to perform daily activities. Falls were found to restrict physical activity in some studies. In view of the heterogeneity of the studies in terms of methods and assessments, it was not possible to determine whether a better level of physical activity is able to decrease the incidence of falls in the elderly.

  7. The magnitude of a mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the Strait of Makassar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mann, T.; Rovere, A.; Schöne, T.; Klicpera, A.; Stocchi, P.; Lukman, M.; Westphal, H.

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge on the timing andmagnitude of past sea-level changes is essential to understandmodern and futuresea-level variability.Holocene sea-level data fromliterature on thewest coast of Sulawesi, central Indonesia, suggestthat this region experienced two relative sea-level highstands over the last

  8. Addressing environmental issues through foraminifera – Case studies from the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.

    of relict foraminifera in certain environments also helps in deciphering palaeo-sea level conditions (Mazumder, 2004; Panchang et al., communicated). Significant Results: The relative rise and fall of sea level over the time has been studied with the help... and shared or distributed, contributing to balance the economy of the country during the time of crisis. Sufficient or excess rainfall conditions will even improve relationship between the states as well as bordering countries sharing water resources...

  9. Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm

    2014-10-28

    The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet's dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka(-1) punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5-14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y(-1) (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100-150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15-20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

  10. Neighborhood Factors and Fall-Related Injuries among Older Adults Seen by Emergency Medical Service Providers

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Sungmin; Lee, Chanam; Rodiek, Susan

    2017-01-01

    Falls are serious health problems among older adults, and are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries treated by emergency medical services (EMS). Although considerable research has examined the risk factors of falls at the individual level, relatively few studies have addressed the risk factors at the neighborhood level. This study examines the characteristics of neighborhood environments associated with fall injuries reported to EMS providers. A total of 13,163 EMS records from 201...

  11. Reduction of diuretics and analysis of water and muscle volumes to prevent falls and fall-related fractures in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Kosuke; Okada, Masahiro; Kamada, Nanao; Yamaguchi, Yumiko; Kakehashi, Masayuki; Sasaki, Hidemi; Katoh, Shigeko; Morita, Katsuya

    2017-02-01

    In an attempt to decrease the incidence of falls and fall-related fractures at a special geriatric nursing home, we endeavored to reduce diuretic doses, and examined the relationship between the effectiveness of this approach with the body compositions and activities of daily living of the study cohort. We enrolled 93 participants living in the community, 60 residents of an intermediate geriatric nursing home and 50 residents of the 100-bed Kandayama Yasuragien special geriatric nursing home. We recorded body composition using a multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analyzer. Daily loop diuretic and other diuretic regimens of those in the special geriatric nursing home were reduced or replaced with "NY-mode" diuretic therapy, namely, spironolactone 12.5 mg orally once on alternate days. The incidence of falls fell from 53 in 2011 to 29 in 2012, and there were no fall-related proximal femoral fractures for 3 years after the introduction of NY-mode diuretic therapy. We also found statistically significant differences in muscle and intracellular water volumes in our elderly participants: those with higher care requirements or lower levels of independence had lower muscle or water volumes. We found that reducing or replacing daily diuretics with NY-mode therapy appeared to reduce the incidence of falls and fall-related proximal femoral fracture, likely by preserving intracellular and extracellular body water volumes. Low-dose spironolactone (12.5 mg on alternate days) appears to be an effective means of treating elderly individuals with chronic heart failure or other edematous states, while preventing falls and fall-related fractures. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 262-269. © 2016 The Authors. Geriatrics & Gerontology International published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Geriatrics Society.

  12. New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

    2018-04-01

    Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

  13. Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Ramsey, C Bronk; Cheng, H; Edwards, R L; Florindo, F; Heslop, D; Marra, F; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-09-25

    Research on global ice-volume changes during Pleistocene glacial cycles is hindered by a lack of detailed sea-level records for time intervals older than the last interglacial. Here we present the first robustly dated, continuous and highly resolved records of Red Sea sea level and rates of sea-level change over the last 500,000 years, based on tight synchronization to an Asian monsoon record. We observe maximum 'natural' (pre-anthropogenic forcing) sea-level rise rates below 2 m per century following periods with up to twice present-day ice volumes, and substantially higher rise rates for greater ice volumes. We also find that maximum sea-level rise rates were attained within 2 kyr of the onset of deglaciations, for 85% of such events. Finally, multivariate regressions of orbital parameters, sea-level and monsoon records suggest that major meltwater pulses account for millennial-scale variability and insolation-lagged responses in Asian monsoon records.

  14. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  15. Remarks on the sea level records of the north Indian ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    variability in the tide gauge records along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean A. S. Unnikrishnan National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, India 403004 e-mail: unni@nio.org Introduction Global sea-level rise has been relatively well... studied by making use of the coastal tide gauge data that are available (Woodworth and Player, 2003) through the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). However, studies on regional sea level rise have not gathered momentum, similar to those on a...

  16. Sea-level Variation Along the Suez Canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eid, F. M.; Sharaf El-Din, S. H.; Alam El-Din, K. A.

    1997-05-01

    The variation of sea level at 11 stations distributed along the Suez Canal was studied during the period from 1980 to 1986. The ranges of variation in daily mean sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik are about 60 and 120 cm, respectively. The minimum range of daily variation is at Kantara (47 cm). The fluctuations of the monthly mean sea level between the two ends of the Suez Canal vary from one season to another. From July to December, the sea level at Port Said is higher than that at Port Tawfik, with the maximum difference (10·5 cm) in September. During the rest of the year, the mean sea level at Port Tawfik is higher than that at Port Said, with the maximum difference (31·5 cm) in March. The long-term variations of the annual mean sea level at both Port Said and Port Tawfik for the period from 1923 to 1986 showed a positive trend. The sea level at Port Said increased by about 27·8 cm century -1while it increased by only 9·1 cm century -1at Port Tawfik. This indicates that the difference between sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik has decreased with time.

  17. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    , experts are increasingly looking at its potential impacts on coasts to facilitate local adaptation planning. This is a more complex issue than one might think, because different stretches of coast can be affected in very different ways. First of all, the sea-level response to global warming will not be globally uniform, since factors like changes in ocean currents (Levermann et al 2005) and the changing gravitational pull of continental ice (Mitrovica et al 2001) affect the local rise. Secondly, superimposed on the climatic trend is natural variability in sea level, which regionally can be as large as the climatic signal on multi-decadal timescales. Over the past decades, sea level has dropped in sizable parts of the world ocean, although it has of course risen in global mean (IPCC 2007). Thirdly, local land uplift or subsidence affects the local sea-level change relative to the coast, both for natural reasons (post-glacial isostatic adjustment centred on regions that were covered by ice sheets during the last ice age) and artificial ones (e.g., extraction of water or oil as in the Gulf of Mexico). Finally, local vulnerability to sea-level rise depends on many factors. Two interesting new studies in this journal (Tebaldi et al 2012, Strauss et al 2012) make important steps towards understanding sea-level vulnerability along the coasts of the United States, with methods that could also be applied elsewhere. The first, by Strauss and colleagues, merges high-resolution topographic data and a newly available tidal model together with population and housing data in order to estimate what land area and population would be at risk given certain increments in sea level. The results are mapped and tabulated at county and city level. They reveal the 'hot spots' along the US coast where sea-level rise is of the highest concern because of large populations living near the high-tide line: New York City and Long Island; the New Jersey shore; the Norfolk, Virginia, area; near Charleston

  18. Fall related hospital admissions among seniors in Poland in 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczak-Stec, Elzbieta; Goryński, Paweł

    2013-01-01

    Falls among elderly people causing hospitalization are considered one of the most important public health problems. Our objective was to analyse fall related hospital admissions among seniors (> or = 65 years old) in Poland in 2010. The analyses were conducted with regard to gender, place of residence and age. Additionally, the health consequences of falls among elderly people were studied. Injuries and other consequences of external causes, were expressed in the form of three-character ICD-10 codes representing the underlying disease (S00-T98). Data on hospital admissions resulting from falls among seniors were obtained from the database held at the Department - Centre for Monitoring and Analyses of Population Health Status and Health Care System by the National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene. Analysis has shown that the hospitalization ratio due to falls is much higher for women than for men. On average, 1 024 per 100 000 women are hospitalized due to a fall, while the number for men is 649. For every analysed age group women are at a higher risk of hospitalization due to a fall than men. In 2010 nearly 70% of hospital admissions of elderly people due to a fall were caused by a fall on the same level as a result of tripping or slipping (31 712 hospitalizations). No differences in relation to gender were observed. Risk of hospitalization due to a fall increases with age. For people over 80 years of age it is 2.5 times higher than for people in the 65-69 age group (1 459 and 570 per 100 000 respectively). It was observed that the length of hospital stay increases with age. There were no significant differences between the number of hospitalizations depending on the place of residence. The analysis showed that differences in the length of stay for women and men are statistically significant. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the lengths of stay depending on a place of residence. Almost one-third of

  19. [Influence of high fall-related self-efficacy on falls due to dissociation with ADL among elderly women in nursing homes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Chikako; Ida, Kunio; Harada, Atsushi

    2009-09-01

    We examined the influence of high fall-related self-efficacy on falls due to dissociation with activities of daily living (ADL) among elderly women in nursing homes. We enrolled 72 female nursing home residents who were 70 years old or over and who scored 18 or higher on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Subjects were classified into three groups based on the relationship between ADL and fall-related self-efficacy derived from a scattergram of the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) motor items and Falls Efficacy Scale (FES). The three groups were: group I which had low ADL and high fall-related self-efficacy (n=25); group II which had high ADL and low fall-related self-efficacy (n=30); and group III which had a correlation of ADL and fall-related self-efficacy in the 95% confidence interval (n=17). Then, we investigated the incidence of falls and the number of falls after 6 months in the three groups. The risk factor of falls was also investigated using multiple logistic regression analysis. The incidence and number of falls were significantly different in the three groups after 6 months. Moreover, the incidence of those falling was significantly different between group I and group III. The occurrence of falls was also significantly related with a past history of falls, FES, and group I which had low ADL and high fall-related self-efficacy. These findings suggest that the risk of falling increases in the presence of excessive fall-related self-efficacy dissociated from ADL.

  20. Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

    Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

  1. Monthly Variations in Sea Level at the Island of Zanzibar | Mahongo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Western Indian Ocean Journal of Marine Science ... Air pressure and rainfall remained relatively constant during the 20-year study period, but there were trends in sea level, northeast winds, southeast winds and air temperature. Monthly ... The trend in sea level (9%) appeared to be mainly correlated with northeast winds.

  2. Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike

    2014-05-01

    In many locations in the southern hemisphere, relative sea level (RSL) reached its maximum position during the middle Holocene. This highstand is used by models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to constrain the melt histories of the large ice sheets, particularly Antarctica. In this paper we present the first Holocene sea-level record from the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), an archipelago located on the Patagonian continental shelf about 500 km east of mainland South America at a latitude of ca. 52 degrees. Unlike coastal locations in southernmost South America, Holocene sea-level data from the Falklands are not influenced by tectonics, local ice loading effects and large tidal ranges such that GIA and ice-ocean mass flux are the dominant drivers of RSL change. Our study site is a salt marsh located in Swan Inlet in East Falkland, around 50 km southwest of Stanley. This is the largest and best developed salt marsh in the Falkland Islands. Cores were collected in 2005 and 2013. Lithostratigraphic analyses were complemented by analyses of foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms to infer palaeoenvironments. The bedrock, a Permian black shale, is overlain by grey-brown organic salt-marsh clay, up to 90 cm thick, which, in a landward direction, is replaced by freshwater organic sediments. Overlying these units are medium-coarse sands with occasional pebbles, up to 115 cm thick, containing tidal flat foraminifera. The sandy unit is erosively overlain by a grey-brown organic salt-marsh peat which extends up to the present surface. Further away from the sea this unit is predominantly of freshwater origin. Based on 13 radiocarbon dates we infer that prior to ~9.5 ka sea level was several metres below present. Under rising sea levels a salt marsh developed which was suddenly drowned around 8.4 ka, synchronous with a sea-level jump known from northern hemisphere locations. Following the drowning, RSL rose to its maximum position around 7 ka, less than 0.5 m above

  3. Relation between visual function index and falls-related factors in patients with age-related cataract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Na Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available AIM:To investigate the relation between vision function index and falls-related factors in patients with age-related cataract.METHODS:Ninety-six patients with age-related cataract were interviewed using a seven-item visual function questionnaire(VF-7, then classified into poor, moderate, or good visual function group. The differences of the three groups on visual acuity, balance and mobility function, cognition, depressive symptoms, self-reported fear of falling were analyzed. RESULTS:The patients in poor visual function group had older age, tendency to depression, was more afraid of falling, compared with groups with higher score in VF-7, and they had worse visual acuity, performed worse on all balance and mobility tests. CONCLUSION:Poor visual function is related to worse visual acuity, weaker balance and mobility performance in patients with age-related cataract. The VF-7, as a simple and convenient self-reported method, can be used as a falling risk monitoring in patients with age-related cataract.

  4. Mapping Relative Sea Level Influences of the Cape Fear Arch in southern North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkes, A.; Kemp, A.; Capar, P.

    2017-12-01

    Long-term relative sea-level (RSL) records are a necessary benchmark by which to gauge present accelerated rates of sea-level rise, future sea-level predictions, and their implications to the coastal zone. The east coast of the United States functions as a significant region of latitudinal RSL variability due to the continuous recovery of land from the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum. Differential glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) along the coastline has caused higher rates of subsidence in areas around the former forbulge maxima near New Jersey and Delaware and lower rates to the north and south of this maxima. However, the coast between southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina is experiencing a slower rate of RSL rise then is seen in reconstructed GIA latitudinal trends along the U.S. east coast. It was thought that this could have been attributed to non-isostatic, long-term tectonic processes causing less GIA subsidence of the lithosphere within the region impacted by uplift from the Cape Fear Arch (CFA), an underlying crystalline basement high. A recent study suggests that RSL rise is slower around the CFA than areas to the north and south due to suggested CFA uplift rates of 0.24+0.15mm a-1. An absence of RSL records for 200km north of the CFA make mapping of its influence difficult. Additional RSL records to the north of the CFA allow for a better understanding of the asymmetrical distribution in the rate of RSL rise in this region. Because the distribution in the rate of RSLR between records is not linear it is important for these low-lying coastal communities to better understand their risk to future RSLR.

  5. Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Breili

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Norway’s national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.

  6. Sea Level, Land Motion, and the Anomalous Tide at Churchill, Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, R. D.

    2015-12-01

    The importance of the tide gauge at Churchill, Manitoba, cannot be overstated. It is the only permanently operating tide gauge in the central Canadian Arctic, and it sits on a prime spot for monitoring the mantle's rebound from the Laurentide ice loss. Yet interpretation of the sea-level time series at Churchill has long been problematic, going back even to early work by Gutenberg in the 1940s. The long-term relative sea-level rates are inconsistent: approximately -4, -19, -5 ± 1 mm/y for the periods 1940-1970, 1970-1990, 1990-2014 respectively. Annual mean high water (MHW) and mean low water (MLW) reflect these trends until around 1990, after which MLW leveled off and is now nearly unchanging. Slightly later, around 2000, the semidiurnal tides became very anomalous, with falling amplitudes and slightly increasing phase lags. The amplitude of M2 was approximately 154 cm before 2000; it dropped to about 146 cm by 2010 and reached an all-time low of 142 cm in 2014. Satellite altimeter estimates of the tide in this region, although challenging because of seasonal ice cover, show no comparable M2 changes, so the tidal changes must be localized to the near vicinity of the gauge (or to the gauge itself if caused by a malfunction). On the other hand, altimetry confirms the post-1992 Churchill measurements of mean sea level, thanks to the long time series of land motion measurements obtained at GPS station CHUR, which gives a vertical uplift of 10.1 mm/y. Combining satellite altimeter data with the Churchill tide-gauge data gives an implied vertical crustal rate of about 9.0 ± 0.8 mm/y, in reasonable agreement with the GPS. In summary, we have still anomalous MSL measurements at the Churchill gauge for the intermediate 1970-1990 era, and very anomalous tidal measurements since 2000, but we have apparently quite reliable MSL rates since 1990.

  7. Effect of fall-related concerns on physical, mental, and social function in community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Meulen, Erik; Zijlstra, G A Rixt; Ambergen, Ton; Kempen, Gertrudis I J M

    2014-12-01

    To determine the effect of fall-related concerns on physical, mental, and social function. Community-based prospective cohort study (secondary analysis using control group data from a randomized controlled trial). Two municipalities in the south of the Netherlands. Community-dwelling older adults (N = 260). Two groups were created using Modified Falls Efficacy Scale scores (high and low levels of fall-related concerns). Five outcome measures representing physical, mental, and social function were included: activities of daily living (ADLs), symptoms of depression, feelings of anxiety, social participation, and social support interactions. Outcomes were measured at baseline and at 2, 8, and 14 months. Data were analyzed using analysis of covariance and mixed-effect regression models for longitudinal data, adjusting for age, sex, living status (alone or with another person), educational level, cognitive status, self-perceived health, and falls history at baseline. At baseline, significantly more limitations in ADLs and social participation were found for older persons with high levels of fall-related concerns than for those with low levels of concern. These differences persisted over 14 months of follow-up and were consistent over time. No significant differences were found for symptoms of depression, feelings of anxiety, or social support interactions, except for feelings of anxiety at 14 months. Older persons with higher levels of fall-related concerns reported up to 14 months poorer ADL and social participation for up to 14 months than those with lower levels of fall-related concerns. From a clinical point of view, the clear relationship between fall-related concerns and ADL dysfunction and social participation may help to target groups who are at risk of developing adverse consequences of concerns about falls. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

  8. National evaluation of Chinese coastal erosion to sea level rise using a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhan, Q; Fan, X; Du, X; Zhu, J

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a Causal Bayesian network is developed to predict decadal-scale shoreline evolution of China to sea-level rise. The Bayesian model defines relationships between 6 factors of Chinese coastal system such as coastal geomorphology, mean tide range, mean wave height, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate and shoreline erosion rate. Using the Bayesian probabilistic model, we make quantitative assessment of china's shoreline evolution in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results indicate that the probability of coastal erosion with high and very high rates increases from 28% to 32.3% when relative sea-level rise rates is 4∼6mm/a, and to 44.9% when relative sea-level rise rates is more than 6mm/a. A hindcast evaluation of the Bayesian model shows that the model correctly predicts 79.3% of the cases. Model test indicates that the Bayesian model shows higher predictive capabilities for stable coasts and very highly eroding coasts than moderately and highly eroding coasts. This study demonstrates that the Bayesian model is adapted to predicting decadal-scale Chinese coastal erosion associated with sea-level rise

  9. Large-scale Mass Transport Deposits in the Valencia Basin (Western Mediterranean): slope instability induced by rapid sea-level drawdown?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameselle, Alejandra L.; Urgeles, Roger; Llopart, Jaume

    2014-05-01

    drawdown using slope geotechnical properties and pre-conditioning factors related to the geological setting of the Valencia Basin. Using several sea-level fall ratios, the variation of the safety factor with respect to successive positions of the sea-level during drawdown has been evaluated.

  10. Low-Impact Flooring: Does It Reduce Fall-Related Injuries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanger, H Carl

    2017-07-01

    To compare fall rates and injuries from falls on low-impact flooring (LIF) compared with a standard vinyl flooring. Prospective, observational, nonrandomized controlled study. Subacute Older Persons Health ward (N = 20 beds). Older inpatients. Three different types of LIF. All falls in the ward were prospectively monitored using incident reporting, noting location and consequences of each fall. Fall rates (per 1000 bed days) and injuries, were compared between bedroom falls on LIF against those occurring on standard vinyl flooring (controls). Over 31 months, there were 278 bedroom falls (from 178 fallers). The bedroom fall rate (falls per 1000 bed days occupied) did not differ between the LIF and control groups (median 15 [IQR 8-18] versus 17 [IQR 9-23], respectively; P = .47). However, fall-related injuries were significantly less frequent when they occurred on LIFs (22% of falls versus 34% of falls on control flooring; P = .02). Fractures occurred in 0.7% of falls in the LIF cohort versus 2.3% in the control cohort. Rolling resistance when moving heavier equipment, such as beds or hoists, was an issue for staff on LIF. LIF significantly reduced fall-related injuries compared with a standard vinyl flooring, whereas they did not alter the overall risk of falling. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

    2012-04-01

    Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which

  12. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Vivien; Butler Forslund, Emelie; Opheim, Arve; Franzén, Erika; Wahman, Kerstin; Hultling, Claes; Seiger, Åke; Ståhle, Agneta; Stanghelle, Johan K; Roaldsen, Kirsti S

    2017-04-01

    What is the 1-year incidence of falls and injurious falls in a representative cohort of community-dwelling ambulatory individuals with chronic spinal cord injury? What are the predictors of recurrent falls (more than two/year) and injurious falls in this population? One-year longitudinal observational multi-centre study. A representative sample of 68 (of 73 included) community-dwelling ambulatory individuals with traumatic SCI attending regular follow-up programs at rehabilitation centres. Primary outcome measures were incidence and predictors of recurrent falls (more than two/year) and injurious falls reported every 2 weeks for 1year. A total of 48% of participants reported recurrent falls. Of the 272 reported falls, 41% were injurious. Serious injuries were experienced by 4% of participants, all of whom were women. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that recurrent falls in the previous year (OR=111, 95% CI=8.6 to 1425), fear of falling (OR=6.1, 95% CI=1.43 to 26) and longer time taken to walk 10m (OR=1.3, 95% CI=1.0 to 1.7) were predictors of recurrent falls. Fear of falling (OR=4.3, 95% CI=1.3 to 14) and recurrent falls in the previous year (OR=4.2, 95% CI=1.2 to 14) were predictors of injurious falls. Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017) Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108-113]. Copyright © 2017 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Long-Term Design of Mangrove Landfills as an Effective Tide Attenuator under Relative Sea-Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Takagi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A mangrove ecosystem is an important option in Ecosystem based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR. The effectiveness of an artificial mangrove landfill in reducing tidal amplitudes was studied by performing a coupled numerical model that simulated wave propagation and soil consolidation. The constructed model simulated the propagation of tide over an artificial landfill that was subjected to land subsidence, sea-level rise, vegetation growth, and sediment deposition. A case study analysis confirmed that the tidal amplitudes are reduced if the initial elevation of the landfill is appropriately considered to achieve an equilibrium state of the landfill over its lifetime. Sediment deposition may be the only dependable source to sustain the surface elevation of a mangrove with relative sea-level rise. Sediment deposition is important to promote vegetation growth, which in turn contributes to sedimentation by enhancing a tranquil hydrodynamic environment. An insufficient initial elevation of the landfill will result in less effective protection against tidal propagation after it substantially subsides.

  14. Estimating absolute sea level variations by combining GNSS and Tide gauge data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bos, M.S.; Fernandes, R.M.S; Vethamony, P.; Mehra, P.

    Indian tide gauges can be used to estimate sea level rise. To separate relative sea level rise from vertical land motion at the tide gauges, various GNSS stations have been installed in the last years at, or nearby, tide gauges. Using the PSMSL...

  15. Coastal lagoons and beach ridges as complementary sedimentary archives for the reconstruction of Holocene relative sea-level changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sander, Lasse; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Fruergaard, Mikkel

    2016-01-01

    Coastal lagoons and beach ridges are genetically independent, though non-continuous, sedimentary archives. We here combine the results from two recently published studies in order to produce an 8000-year-long record of Holocene relative sea-level changes on the island of Samsø, southern Kattegat,...

  16. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

    2015-07-10

    Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.

    2016-01-04

    This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results.

  18. Incidence of fall-related injury among old people in mainland China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Juan; Long, Jianxiong; Ling, Weijun; Huang, Guifeng; Guo, Xiaojing; Su, Li

    2015-01-01

    The fall-related injuries of old people have attracted increasing attention particularly because of the continuous aging of the population. In this meta-analysis, we aim to present the incidence and sub-groups of fall-related injuries among old people in mainland China. A systematic electronic literature search was performed using four Chinese and two English databases. The selected papers were cross-sectional studies in mainland China, the participants of which were recruited based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using questionnaire. The risk of bias was assessed using the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE), and the pooled rates were estimated by DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. A total of 40 cross-sectional studies that focused on 128,691 participants who were aged 60 years were included in this review. On the one hand, 54.95 per 1000 (overall), 45.94 per 1000 (males), 78.89 per 1000 (females), 25.95 per 1000 (60 years to 69 years), 33.03 per 1000 (70 years to 79 years), and 62.74 per 1000 (≥80 years) were estimated for the pooled incidence of fall-related injury. On the other hand, 91.72 per 1000 (overall), 94.54 per 1000 (males), and 144.93 per 1000 (females) were estimated for person-time incidence of fall-related injury. Higher incidence rates were observed in females compared with males, and these rates continued to increase along with age. A moderate level of fall-related injuries was observed among old people in mainland China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Linear and non-linear sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea from tide gauge records (1872-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaia Galassi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We have analyzed tide gauge data from the Adriatic Sea in order to assess the secular sea-level trend, its acceleration and the existence of possible cyclic variation. Analyzing the sea-level stack of all Adriatic tide gauges, we have obtained a trend of (1.25±0.04 mm yr-1, in agreement with that observed for the last century in the Mediterranean Sea, and an acceleration that is negligibile compared to the average global values. By means of the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique, we have evidenced an energetic oscillation with a period of ∼20 years that we relate with the recurrence of opposite phases in the Atlantic Multi–decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices. We suggest that anomalously high sea-level values observed at all the Adriatic tide gauges during 2010 and 2011 can be explained by the rising phase of this 20 years cycle.

  20. Prevention of falls and fall-related injuries in community-dwelling seniors: an evidence-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    and older will fall. Of those individuals who fall, 12% to 42% will have a fall-related injury. Several meta-analyses and cohort studies have identified falls and fall-related injuries as a strong predictor of admission to a long-term care (LTC) home. It has been shown that the risk of LTC home admission is over 5 times higher in seniors who experienced 2 or more falls without injury, and over 10 times higher in seniors who experienced a fall causing serious injury. Falls result from the interaction of a variety of risk factors that can be both intrinsic and extrinsic. Intrinsic factors are those that pertain to the physical, demographic, and health status of the individual, while extrinsic factors relate to the physical and socio-economic environment. Intrinsic risk factors can be further grouped into psychosocial/demographic risks, medical risks, risks associated with activity level and dependence, and medication risks. Commonly described extrinsic risks are tripping hazards, balance and slip hazards, and vision hazards. NOTE: It is recognized that the terms "senior" and "elderly" carry a range of meanings for different audiences; this report generally uses the former, but the terms are treated here as essentially interchangeable. EVIDENCE-BASED ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVENESS: Since many risk factors for falls are modifiable, what interventions (devices, systems, programs) exist that reduce the risk of falls and/or fall-related injuries for community-dwelling seniors? English language;published between January 2000 and September 2007;population of community-dwelling seniors (majority aged 65+); andrandomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-experimental trials, systematic reviews, or meta-analyses. special populations (e.g., stroke or osteoporosis; however, studies restricted only to women were included);studies only reporting surrogate outcomes; orstudies whose outcome cannot be extracted for meta-analysis. number of fallers, andnumber of falls resulting in injury

  1. Present day sea level changes: observation and causes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, A.

    2005-11-01

    Whereas sea level has changed little over the last 2000 years, it has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/year during the 20. century. This unexpected sea level rise has been attributed to the anthropogenic global warming, recorded over several decades. Sea level variations have been measured globally and precisely for about 12 years due to satellite altimeter missions Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1. These observations indicate a global mean sea level rise of about 3 mm/year since 1993, a value significantly larger than observed during previous decades. Recent observations have allowed us to quantify the various climatic factors contributing to observed sea level change: thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in the land water reservoirs. A water budget based on these new observations allows us to partly explain the observed sea level rise. In particular, we show that the thermal expansion explains only 25% of the secular sea level rise as recorded by tide-gauges over the last 50 years, while it contributes about 50% of sea level rise observed over the last decade. Meanwhile, recent studies show that glacier and ice sheet melting could contribute the equivalent of 1 mm/year in sea level rise over the last decade. In addition, the high regional variability of sea level trends revealed by satellite altimetry is mainly due to thermal expansion. There is also an important decadal spatio-temporal variability in the ocean thermal expansion over the last 50 years, which seems to be controlled by natural climate fluctuations. We question for the first time the link between the decadal fluctuations in the ocean thermal expansion and in the land reservoirs, and indeed their climatic contribution to sea level change. Finally a preliminary analysis of GRACE spatial gravimetric observations over the oceans allows us to estimate the seasonal variations in mean sea level due to ocean water mass balance variations

  2. Is sea-level rising?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    correction in the estimation of trends obtained for tide gauge records. The altimeter data permits to prepare spatial maps of sea-level rise trends. We present a map prepared for the Indian Ocean (Figure 4) north of 10oS , which shows a fairly uniform... drawn information from research papers published by the author and report of the IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13: Sea Level Changes, in which the author has served as a ‘Lead Author’. Figure1 is prepared using data from the University of Colorado. Nerem, R...

  3. Measuring the Rate of Change in Sea Level and Its Adherence to USACE Sea Level Rise Planning Scenarios Using Timeseries Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, K. D.; Huang, N.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.; Moritz, H.; Obrien, P. S.; Friedman, D.

    2017-12-01

    In 2013, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) issued guidance for all Civil Works activities to incorporate the effects of sea level change as described in three distinct planning scenarios.[1] These planning scenarios provided a useful framework to incorporate these effects into Civil Works activities, but required the manual calculation of these scenarios for a given gage and set of datum. To address this need, USACE developed the Sea Level Change Curve Calculator (SLCCC) in 2014 which provided a "simple, web-based tool to provide repeatable analytical results."[2]USACE has been developing a successor to the SLCCC application which retains the same, intuitive functionality to calculate these planning scenarios, but it also allows the comparison of actual sea level change between 1992 and today against the projections, and builds on the user's ability to understand the rate of change using a variety of timeseries metrics (e.g. moving averages, trends) and related visualizations. These new metrics help both illustrate and measure the complexity and nuances of sea level change. [1] ER 1000-2-8162. http://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerRegulations/ER_1100-2-8162.pdf. [2] SLCC Manual. http://www.corpsclimate.us/docs/SLC_Calculator_Manual_2014_88.pdf.

  4. Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

    2012-01-01

    Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

  5. Depositional and sea-level history from MIS 6 (Termination II) to MIS 3 on the southern continental shelf of South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawthra, H. C.; Jacobs, Z.; Compton, J. S.; Fisher, E. C.; Karkanas, P.; Marean, C. W.

    2018-02-01

    around still-stand events. Periods of relatively slow average rise or fall of sea level are represented by erosional planation surfaces in this record.

  6. Relative sea level and coastal environments in arctic Alaska during Marine Isotope Stage 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquharson, L. M.; Mann, D. H.; Jones, B. M.; Rittenour, T. M.; Grosse, G.; Groves, P.

    2015-12-01

    Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 was characterized by marked fluctuations in climate, the warmest being MIS 5e (124-119 ka) when relative sea level (RSL) stood 2-10 m higher than today along many coastlines. In northern Alaska, marine deposits now 5-10 m above modern sea level are assigned to this time period and termed the Pelukian transgression (PT). Complicating this interpretation is the possibility that an intra-Stage 5 ice shelf extended along the Alaskan coast, causing isostatic depression along its grounded margins, which caused RSL highs even during periods of low, global RSL. Here we use optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to date inferred PT deposits on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain. A transition from what we interpret to be lagoonal mud to sandy tidal flat deposits lying ~ 2.75 m asl dates to 113+/-18 ka. Above this, a 5-m thick gravelly barrier beach dates to 95 +/- 20 ka. This beach contains well-preserved marine molluscs, whale vertebrae, and walrus tusks. Pleistocene-aged ice-rich eolian silt (yedoma) blanket the marine deposits and date to 57.6 +/-10.9 ka. Our interpretation of this chronostratigraphy is that RSL was several meters higher than today during MIS 5e, and lagoons or brackish lakes were prevalent. Gravel barrier beaches moved onshore as local RSL rose further after MIS 5e. The error range of the OSL age of the barrier-beach unit spans the remaining four substages of MIS 5; however, the highstand of RSL on this arctic coastline appears to occurr after the warmest part of the last interglacial and appears not to be coeval with the eustatic maximum reached at lower latitudes during MIS 5. One possibility is that RSL along the Beaufort Sea coast was affected by isostatic depression caused by an ice shelf associated with widespread, intra-Stage 5 glaciation that was out of phase with lower latitude glaciation and whose extent and timing remains enigmatic.

  7. Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 91 Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century A. S. Unnikrishnan National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403004 unni@nio.org Introduction Sea-level... rise is one of the good indicators of global warming. Rise in sea level occurs mainly through melting of glaciers, thermal expansion due to ocean warming and some other processes of relatively smaller magnitudes. Sea level rise is a global...

  8. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data....... However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry......-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled...

  9. Microfacies, Sedimentary Environment and Relative Sea Level Changes of the Ruteh Formation, Sangsar and Makaroud Sections, Central Alborz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leili Bastami

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction According to different paleontological and paleomagnetic studies, Iran was part of the Gondwana during the Permian. The Permian lithostratigraphic units in the Alborz-Azerbaijan are introduced as Doroud, Ruteh and Nesen Formations. The Ruteh Formation, the second depositional cycle of the Permian in the Alborz Basin, have been studied at two stratigraphic sections in the Central Alborz. The Sangsar section located on the south flank of the Central Alborz, 1 km northwest of Mahdishahr city and the Makaroud section located on the north flank of the Central Alborz, about 37 km south of Chalous city. The thickness of the Ruteh Formation at the Sangsar section is 106 m and at the Makaroud section is 222 m. At the Sangsar section the Ruteh Formation is underlain by the Doroud Formation with gradual contact and is overlain by a lateritic horizon. At the Makaroud section the Ruteh Formation disconformably overlies the Doroud Formation and the upper boundary is faulted and the Chalous Formation overlies the Ruteh Formation at this section. The aim of this paper is to analysis microfacies, interpret depositional environments and delineate relative sea level changes of the Ruteh Formation. Other researchers studied the Ruteh Formation at different sections in the Alborz Basin believe that the carbonate sediments of this formation have been deposited in a homoclinal carbonate ramp and consist of two-three 3rd order depositional sequences. But no sedimentological studies have been done at the selected sections in this study.   Material & Methods Two stratigraphic sections of the Ruteh Formation have been selected, measuted and sampled. One hundred sixty three samples (fifty seven samples from Sangsar and one hundred six samples from Makaroud section  were collected and thin sections were prepared from all samples. Afew samples were collected from lower and upper formations. Thin sections were stained with potassium ferricyanide and alizarin

  10. Emergent Marine Terraces in Cebu Island, Philippines and Their Implications for Relative Sea Level Changes in the Late Quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, N. T.; Sarmiento, K. J. S.; Maxwell, K. V.; Soberano, O. B.; Dimalanta, C. B.

    2017-12-01

    The remarkable preservation and extensive distribution of emergent marine terraces in the Philippines allow us to study relative sea level changes and tectonic processes during the Late Quaternary. While higher uplift rates and possible prehistoric coseismic events are recorded by emergent coral reefs facing subduction zones, the central Philippine islands are reported to reflect vertical tectonic stability as they are distant from trenches. To constrain the coastal tectonics of the central Philippine region, we studied emergent sea level indicators along the coasts of northern Cebu Island in Tabuelan, San Remigio, and Bogo City. Upper steps of marine terraces were interpreted from IFSAR-derived DEMs, in which at least two and seven steps were identified along the west (Tabuelan) and east (Bogo) coasts, respectively. In Tabuelan, two extensive terrace steps (TPT) were interpreted with TPT1 at 5-13 m above mean sea level (amsl) and TPT2 at 27-44 m amsl. Five to possibly seven terrace steps (BPT) were delineated in Bogo City with elevations from lowest (BPT1) to highest (BPT7) at BPT1: 4-6 m, BPT2: 12-18 m, BPT3: 27-33 m, BPT4: 39-46 m, BPT5: 59-71 m, BPT6: 80-92 m, and BPT7: 103-108 m amsl. These upper terraces are inferred to be Late Pleistocene in age based on an initial MIS 5e age reported for a 5-m-high terrace in Mactan Island. At some sites, even lower and narrower terrace surfaces were observed, consisting of cemented coral rubble that surround eroded and attached corals. These lower carbonate steps, with elevations ranging from 1 to 3 m amsl, further provide clues on relative sea level changes and long-term tectonic deformation across Cebu Island.

  11. Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

  12. Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts, and Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Wahl

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise (SLR poses a great threat to approximately 10% of the world’s population residing in low-elevation coastal zones (i.e., land located up to 10 m of present-day mean sea-level (MSL[...

  13. Relative sea level in the Western Mediterranean basin: A regional test of the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model and a constraint on late Holocene Antarctic deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Keven; Peltier, W. R.

    2018-03-01

    The Mediterranean Basin is a region of special interest in the study of past and present relative sea level evolution, given its location south of the ice sheets that covered large fractions of Northern Europe during the last glaciation, the large number of biological, geological and archaeological sea level indicators that have been retrieved from its coastal regions, as well as its high density of modern coastal infrastructure. Models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process provide reconstructions of past relative sea level evolution, and can be tested for validity against past sea level indicators from the region. It is demonstrated herein that the latest ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model of the GIA process, the North American component of which was refined using a full suite of geophysical observables, is able to reconcile the vast majority of uniformly analyzed relative sea level constraints available for the Western part of the Mediterranean basin, a region to which it was not tuned. We also revisit herein the previously published interpretations of relative sea level information obtained from Roman-era coastal Mediterranean "fish tanks", analyze the far-field influence of the rate of late Holocene Antarctic ice sheet melting history on the exceptionally detailed relative sea level history available from southern Tunisia, and extend the analysis to complementary constraints on the history of Antarctic ice-sheet melting available from islands in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The analyses reported herein provide strong support for the global "exportability" of the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model, a result that speaks directly to the ability of spherically symmetric models of the internal viscoelastic structure to explain globally distributed observations, while also identifying isolated regions of remaining misfit which will benefit from further study.

  14. Cambro-ordovician sea-level fluctuations and sequence boundaries: The missing record and the evolution of new taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehnert, O.; Miller, J.F.; Leslie, Stephen A.; Repetski, J.E.; Ethington, Raymond L.

    2005-01-01

    The evolution of early Palaeozoic conodont faunas shows a clear connection to sea-level changes. One way that this connection manifests itself is that thick successions of carbonates are missing beneath major sequence boundaries due to karstification and erosion. From this observation arises the question of how many taxa have been lost from different conodont lineages in these incomplete successions. Although many taxa suffered extinction due to the environmental stresses associated with falling sea-levels, some must have survived in these extreme conditions. The number of taxa missing in the early Palaeozoic tropics always will be unclear, but it will be even more difficult to evaluate the missing record in detrital successions of higher latitudes. A common pattern in the evolution of Cambrian-Ordovician conodont lineages is appearances of new species at sea-level rises and disappearances at sea-level drops. This simple picture can be complicated by intervals that consistently have no representatives of a particular lineage, even after extensive sampling of the most complete sections. Presumably the lineages survived in undocumented refugia. In this paper, we give examples of evolution in Cambrian-Ordovician shallowmarine conodont faunas and highlight problems of undiscovered or truly missing segments of lineages. ?? The Palaeontological Association.

  15. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    OpenAIRE

    In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

  16. On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

    2010-12-01

    Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

  17. A new Arctic 25-year Altimetric Sea-level Record (1992-2016) and Initial look at Arctic Sea Level Budget Closure

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen O.B., Passaro M., Benveniste J., Piccioni G.

    2016-01-01

    A new initiative within the ESA Sea Level Climate Change initiative (SL-cci) framework to improve the Arctic sea level record has been initiated as a combined effort to reprocess and retrack past altimetry to create a 25-year combined sea level record for sea level research studies. One of the objectives is to retracked ERS-2 dataset for the high latitudes based on the ALES retracking algorithm through adapting the ALES retracker for retracking of specular surfaces (leads). Secondly a reproce...

  18. Air-sea exchange of gaseous mercury in the East China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunjie; Ci, Zhijia; Wang, Zhangwei; Zhang, Xiaoshan

    2016-05-01

    Two oceanographic cruises were carried out in the East China Sea (ECS) during the summer and fall of 2013. The main objectives of this study are to identify the spatial-temporal distributions of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) in air and dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) in surface seawater, and then to estimate the Hg(0) flux. The GEM concentration was lower in summer (1.61 ± 0.32 ng m(-3)) than in fall (2.20 ± 0.58 ng m(-3)). The back-trajectory analysis revealed that the air masses with high GEM levels during fall largely originated from the land, while the air masses with low GEM levels during summer primarily originated from ocean. The spatial distribution patterns of total Hg (THg), fluorescence, and turbidity were consistent with the pattern of DGM with high levels in the nearshore area and low levels in the open sea. Additionally, the levels of percentage of DGM to THg (%DGM) were higher in the open sea than in the nearshore area, which was consistent with the previous studies. The THg concentration in fall was higher (1.47 ± 0.51 ng l(-1)) than those of other open oceans. The DGM concentration (60.1 ± 17.6 pg l(-1)) and Hg(0) flux (4.6 ± 3.6 ng m(-2) h(-1)) in summer were higher than those in fall (DGM: 49.6 ± 12.5 pg l(-1) and Hg(0) flux: 3.6 ± 2.8 ng m(-2) h(-1)). The emission flux of Hg(0) from the ECS was estimated to be 27.6 tons yr(-1), accounting for ∼0.98% of the global Hg oceanic evasion though the ECS only accounts for ∼0.21% of global ocean area, indicating that the ECS plays an important role in the oceanic Hg cycle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke-Xiu LIU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Tide gauge data from 1950 to 2015 are used to analyze sea level change, tidal change, return levels, and design tide levels under rising sea level scenarios in Bohai Bay. Results show the following: 1 Since 1950 sea levels in Bohai Bay show a significant rising trend of 3.3 mm per year. The speed has been particularly rapid in 1980–2015 at a rate of 4.7 mm per year. 2 Astronomical tides showed a clear long-term trend in 1950–2015. The amplitude and phase lag of the M2 tide constituent decreased at a rate of 0.21 cm per year and 0.11° per year, respectively and the phase lag of K1 decreased at a rate of 0.09° per year, whereas there was little change in its amplitude. The mean high and low tides increased at a rate of 0.08 and 0.52 cm per year, respectively, whereas the mean tidal range decreased at a rate of 0.44 cm per year. Results from numerical experiments show that local sea level rise plays an important role in the tidal dynamics change in Bohai Bay. 3 It is considered that the sea level return periods will decrease owing to the influence of sea level rise and land subsidence, therefore design tide level will change in relation to sea level rise. Therefore, the ability of seawalls to withstand water will diminish, and storm surge disasters will become more serious in the future.

  20. Social and psychologic factors related to falls among the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossey, J M

    1985-08-01

    Studies on falls are reviewed. Little information exists on which social or psychologic factors predispose an older person to fall or to sustain a fall-related injury. Risk of falling appears to be greater among females, the cognitively impaired, and those who use hypnotics, tranquilizers, and diuretics. The potential significance of depression and senile dementia of the Alzheimer's type on the risk of falling is explored. It is suggested that because of the associated impaired judgment, distraction, and psychomotor retardation, the presence of either clinical condition may increase an individual's risk of falling. In the final section of the article, directions for future research are discussed. Development of a systematic research program is suggested including epidemiologic studies of all falls and of medically treated falls. Such studies should be multidisciplinary and include assessment of social and psychologic factors as well as physical and functional health status, ambulatory function, perceptual acuity, and the circumstances surrounding the fall. The psychologic consequences of falling, particularly in the absence of a serious fall-related injury, is identified as an important research area.

  1. Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2009-01-01

    The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...... that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1...

  2. Multivariate Regression Approach To Integrate Multiple Satellite And Tide Gauge Data For Real Time Sea Level Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2010-01-01

    The Sea Level Thematic Assembly Center in the EUFP7 MyOcean project aims at build a sea level service for multiple satellite sea level observations at a European level for GMES marine applications. It aims to improve the sea level related products to guarantee the sustainability and the quality...

  3. Epidemiology, morbidity and mortality from fall-related injuries in the United Arab Emirates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Unintentional falls are a major cause of morbidity and mortality with a significant burden on victims, families, and societies. We aimed to study the mechanism, risk factors, and outcome of hospitalized patients with fall-related injuries in order to propose preventive measures. Methods Fall-related injured patients who were admitted to Al Ain Hospital, United Arab Emirates (UAE) for more than 24 hours or who died after arrival to the hospital, were studied over 3 years. Demography, location and time of injury, affected body regions, hospital and ICU stay, and outcome were analyzed. Results 882 patients were studied, 82% were males, and 22% were less than 19 years old. Majority were from the Indian subcontinent. The most common location for fall injuries was work. Patients injured at work were older and mainly non-UAE nationals (p < 0.0001) when compared with those injured at home. Patients falling from height, when compared with those falling from same level, were older (p = 0.017), had more males (p < 0.001), were mainly from the Indian subcontinent (p < 0.001), had higher ISS (p = 0.011) and longer total hospital stay (p < 0.001). Conclusions Falls are a major health problem in the UAE. Falls at work can be prevented by safety education tailored to different ethnic groups, and proper legislation and regulation. Environmental modification using evidence-based architectural design may prevent falls among vulnerable risk groups. PMID:25178823

  4. Fall-related experiences of stroke survivors: a meta-ethnography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Mary; Galvin, Rose; Horgan, N Frances

    2017-04-01

    Health professionals view falls after stroke as common adverse events with both physical and psychological consequences. Stroke survivors' experiences are less well understood. The aim of this systematic review was to explore the perception of falls-risk within the stroke recovery experience from the perspective of people with stroke. A systematic literature search was conducted. Papers that used qualitative methods to explore the experiences of individuals with stroke around falls, falls-risk and fear of falling were included. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality of papers. Meta-ethnography was conducted. Concepts from each study were translated into each other to form theories that were combined through a "lines-of-argument" synthesis. Four themes emerged from the six included qualitative studies: (i) Fall circumstances, (ii) perception of fall consequences, (iii) barriers to community participation and (iv) coping strategies. The synthesis revealed that stroke survivors' perceived consequences of falls exist on a continuum. Cognitive and emotional adjustment may be required in the successful adoption of coping strategies to overcome fall-related barriers to participation. Stroke survivors' fall-related experiences appear to exist within the context of activity and community participation. Further research is warranted due to the small number of substantive studies available for synthesis. Implications for Rehabilitation Health care professionals should recognize that cognitive and emotional adjustment may berequired for stroke survivors to accept strategies for overcoming falls-risk, including dependenceon carers and assistive devices. Several factors in addition to physical interventions may be needed to minimize falls-risk whileincreasing activity participation. These factors could include increasing public awareness about the effects of stroke and falls-risk,and ensuring access to psychological services for stroke survivors

  5. Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

  6. Sea level rise at Honolulu and Hilo, Hawaii: GPS estimates of differential land motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccamise, Dana J.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Bevis, Michael; Foster, James; Firing, Yvonne L.; Schenewerk, Mark S.; Taylor, Frederick W.; Thomas, Donald A.

    2005-02-01

    Since 1946, sea level at Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii has risen an average of 1.8 +/- 0.4 mm/yr faster than at Honolulu on the island of Oahu. This difference has been attributed to subsidence of the Big Island. However, GPS measurements indicate that Hilo is sinking relative to Honolulu at a rate of -0.4 +/- 0.5 mm/yr, which is too small to account for the difference in sea level trends. In the past 30 years, there has been a statistically significant reduction in the relative sea level trend. While it is possible that the rates of land motion have changed over this time period, the available hydrographic data suggest that interdecadal variations in upper ocean temperature account for much of the differential sea level signal between the two stations, including the recent trend change. These results highlight the challenges involved in estimating secular sea level trends in the presence of significant low frequency variability.

  7. Anxiety, depression, and fall-related psychological concerns in community-dwelling older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hull, Samantha L; Kneebone, Ian I; Farquharson, Lorna

    2013-12-01

    Establish the association between affect and fall-related psychological concerns (fear of falling, fall-related self-efficacy, balance confidence, and outcome expectancy). A total of 205 community-dwelling older people (mean age 81, SD 7.5 years) completed the Geriatric Depression Scale-15, Geriatric Anxiety Inventory, Modified Survey of Activities and Fear of Falling, Falls-Efficacy Scale- International, Activity-Specific Balance Confidence Scale, and the Consequences of Falling Scale. Hierarchical regression models showed that anxiety was independently associated with all fall-related psychological concerns; depression was only associated with falls efficacy. Associations between fall-related psychological concerns and age, gender, accommodation,medications, self-rated physical health, falls history, mobility, and sensory aids are also discussed. This is the first study that investigates the association between affect and the four fall-related psychological concerns. Anxiety was a significant factor associated with all four, whereas depression was only associated with activity avoidance. Implications for healthcare providers are discussed. Copyright © 2013 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the sea level in the China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Liu, Kexiu; Wang, Aimei; Feng, Jianlong; Fan, Wenjing; Liu, Qiulin; Xu, Yao; Zhang, Zengjian

    2018-05-01

    Based on coastal tide level, satellite altimetry, and sea surface temperature (SST) data of offshore areas of China's coast and the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the sea level in the China Sea were investigated. Singular value decomposition results show a significant teleconnection between the sea level in the China Sea and the SST of the tropical Pacific Ocean; the correlation coefficient decreases from south to north. Data from tide gauges along China's coast show that the seasonal sea-level variations are significantly correlated with the ENSO. In addition, China's coast was divided into three regions based on distinctive regional characteristics. Results obtained show that the annual amplitude of sea level was low during El Niño developing years, and especially so during the El Niño year. The ENSO intensity determined the response intensity of the annual amplitude of the sea level. The response region (amplitude) was relatively large for strong ENSO intensities. Significant oscillation periods at a timescale of 4-7 years existed in the sea level of the three regions. The largest amplitude of oscillation was 1.5 cm, which was the fluctuation with the 7-year period in the South China Sea. The largest amplitude of oscillation in the East China Sea was about 1.3 cm. The amplitude of oscillation with the 6-year period in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea was the smallest (less than 1 cm).

  9. The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

    2006-12-01

    The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

  10. The efficacy of fall-risk-increasing drug (FRID) withdrawal for the prevention of falls and fall-related complications: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Justin Yusen; Holbrook, Anne

    2017-02-20

    Despite limited evidence of effectiveness, withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction) of high risk medications known as "fall-risk increasing drugs" (FRIDs) is typically conducted as a fall prevention strategy based on presumptive benefit. Our objective is to determine the efficacy of fall-risk increasing drugs (FRIDs) withdrawal on the prevention of falls and fall-related complications. We will search for all published and unpublished randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of FRID withdrawal compared to usual care on the rate of falls, incidence of falls, fall-related injuries, fall-related fractures, fall-related hospitalizations, or adverse effects related to the intervention in adults aged 65 years or older. Electronic database searches will be conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and CINAHL. A grey literature search will be conducted including clinical trial registries and conference proceedings and abstracts. Two reviewers will independently perform in duplicate citation screening, full-text review, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. Conflicts will be resolved through team discussion or by a third reviewer if no consensus can be reached. The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria will be used to independently rate overall confidence in effect estimates for each outcome. Results will be synthesized descriptively, and a random effects meta-analysis will be conducted for each outcome if studies are deemed similar methodologically, clinically, and statistically. We will attempt to determine whether a FRID withdrawal strategy alone is effective at preventing falls in older adults. Our results will be used to optimize and focus fall prevention strategies and initiatives internationally with a goal of improving the health of older adults. PROSPERO CRD42016040203.

  11. Geriatric fall-related injuries | Hefny | African Health Sciences

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Falls are the leading cause of geriatric injury. ... and outcome of geriatric fall-related injuries in order to give recommendations regarding their prevention. Methods: All injured patients with an age ≥ 60 years who were admitted to ...

  12. Mapping Sea Level Rise Behavior in an Estuarine Delta System: A Case Study along the Shanghai Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.Q. Cheng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise (SLR is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions. Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD. It is difficult, however, for decision-makers to implement adaptation due to the uncertain causes, magnitudes, and timings of SLR behaviors. This paper attempts to map the causes and magnitudes of SLR behaviors on a decadal scale. We analyze the tidal level records from 11 tidal gauge stations and the corresponding bathymetry measurements around these stations since 1921. We identify three new SLR behaviors along the Shanghai coast due to anthropogenic geomorphologic changes (AGCs, besides the well-known eustatic sea level rise (ESLR, tectonic subsidence (TS, and urban land subsidence (ULS. The first new behavior is regional sea level rise (RSLR, which occurs as a result of land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. The second is regional sea level fall (RSLF, which occurs because the channel bed is eroded due to sediment supply decline in the river catchment. The last SLR behavior is local tidal datum rise (LTDR. Thus, we project that the magnitude of SLR for the Shanghai coast ranges from 10 cm to 16 cm from 2011 to 2030. Clarifying SLR behaviors is important to aid local decision-makers in planning structural and non-structural measures to combat escalating flood damage costs in an estuarine delta system; this field is full of future challenges. Keywords: Sea level rise behavior, Anthropogenic geomorphologic change, Local tidal datum, Flood management, Adaptation

  13. Clinical and Community Strategies to Prevent Falls and Fall-Related Injuries Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor-Piliae, Ruth E; Peterson, Rachel; Mohler, Martha Jane

    2017-09-01

    Falls in older adults are the result of several risk factors across biological and behavioral aspects of the person, along with environmental factors. Falls can trigger a downward spiral in activities of daily living, independence, and overall health outcomes. Clinicians who care for older adults should screen them annually for falls. A multifactorial comprehensive clinical fall assessment coupled with tailored interventions can result in a dramatic public health impact, while improving older adult quality of life. For community-dwelling older adults, effective fall prevention has the potential to reduce serious fall-related injuries, emergency room visits, hospitalizations, institutionalization, and functional decline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Detection of a dynamic topography signal in last interglacial sea-level records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austermann, Jacqueline; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Huybers, Peter; Rovere, Alessio

    2017-07-01

    Estimating minimum ice volume during the last interglacial based on local sea-level indicators requires that these indicators are corrected for processes that alter local sea level relative to the global average. Although glacial isostatic adjustment is generally accounted for, global scale dynamic changes in topography driven by convective mantle flow are generally not considered. We use numerical models of mantle flow to quantify vertical deflections caused by dynamic topography and compare predictions at passive margins to a globally distributed set of last interglacial sea-level markers. The deflections predicted as a result of dynamic topography are significantly correlated with marker elevations (>95% probability) and are consistent with construction and preservation attributes across marker types. We conclude that a dynamic topography signal is present in the elevation of last interglacial sea-level records and that the signal must be accounted for in any effort to determine peak global mean sea level during the last interglacial to within an accuracy of several meters.

  15. Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy Taylor

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available A system for providing routine seven-day forecasts of sea level observable at tide gauge locations is described and evaluated. Forecast time series are aggregated from well-established operational systems of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; although following some adjustments these systems are only quasi-complimentary. Target applications are routine coastal decision processes under non-extreme conditions. The configuration aims to be relatively robust to operational realities such as version upgrades, data gaps and metadata ambiguities. Forecast skill is evaluated against hourly tide gauge observations. Characteristics of the bias correction term are demonstrated to be primarily static in time, with time varying signals showing regional coherence. This simple approach to exploiting existing complex systems can offer valuable levels of skill at a range of Australian locations. The prospect of interpolation between observation sites and exploitation of lagged-ensemble uncertainty estimates could be meaningfully pursued. Skill characteristics define a benchmark against which new operational sea level forecasting systems can be measured. More generally, an aggregation approach may prove to be optimal for routine sea level forecast services given the physically inhomogeneous processes involved and ability to incorporate ongoing improvements and extensions of source systems.

  16. Impact of falls and fear of falling on health-related quality of life in patients with Parkinson's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grimbergen, Y.A.M.; Schrag, A.; Mazibrada, G.; Borm, G.F.; Bloem, B.R.

    2013-01-01

    Postural instability, recurrent falls and fear of falling are common in advanced Parkinson's disease (PD). We examined the impact of fall frequency, fear of falling, balance confidence and objectively measured balance impairment (using Tinetti's Mobility Index) on health-related quality of life

  17. Sea level monitoring in Africa | Woodworth | African Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Information Network for Africa (ODINAfrica) programme are described and a survey of currently existing and planned sea level stations in Africa is presented, together with information on where data for existing stations may be found. Keywords: sea level data applications, sea level data telemetry, sea level networks. African ...

  18. Neighborhood Factors and Fall-Related Injuries among Older Adults Seen by Emergency Medical Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungmin Lee

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Falls are serious health problems among older adults, and are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries treated by emergency medical services (EMS. Although considerable research has examined the risk factors of falls at the individual level, relatively few studies have addressed the risk factors at the neighborhood level. This study examines the characteristics of neighborhood environments associated with fall injuries reported to EMS providers. A total of 13,163 EMS records from 2011 to 2014 involving adults aged 65 and older in the city of San Antonio (TX, USA were analyzed at the census tract level (n = 264. Negative binomial regression was used to identify significant census tract-based neighborhood environmental variables associated with the count of fall injuries in each census tract. Adjusting for exposure variable and the size of the census tract, neighborhoods with higher residential stability, captured as the percent of those who lived in the same house as the previous year were associated with decreased count of fall injuries. Neighborhoods with higher residential density and having a higher vacancy rate were associated with increased count of fall injuries. The study highlights the importance of stable and safe neighborhoods in reducing fall risks among older adults, which should be considered a prerequisite for promoting age-friendly environments.

  19. Neighborhood Factors and Fall-Related Injuries among Older Adults Seen by Emergency Medical Service Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sungmin; Lee, Chanam; Rodiek, Susan

    2017-02-08

    Falls are serious health problems among older adults, and are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries treated by emergency medical services (EMS). Although considerable research has examined the risk factors of falls at the individual level, relatively few studies have addressed the risk factors at the neighborhood level. This study examines the characteristics of neighborhood environments associated with fall injuries reported to EMS providers. A total of 13,163 EMS records from 2011 to 2014 involving adults aged 65 and older in the city of San Antonio (TX, USA) were analyzed at the census tract level (n = 264). Negative binomial regression was used to identify significant census tract-based neighborhood environmental variables associated with the count of fall injuries in each census tract. Adjusting for exposure variable and the size of the census tract, neighborhoods with higher residential stability, captured as the percent of those who lived in the same house as the previous year were associated with decreased count of fall injuries. Neighborhoods with higher residential density and having a higher vacancy rate were associated with increased count of fall injuries. The study highlights the importance of stable and safe neighborhoods in reducing fall risks among older adults, which should be considered a prerequisite for promoting age-friendly environments.

  20. Sea level rise : A literature survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, G.H.P.

    1992-01-01

    In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes

  1. The efficacy of fall-risk-increasing drug (FRID withdrawal for the prevention of falls and fall-related complications: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Yusen Lee

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite limited evidence of effectiveness, withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction of high risk medications known as “fall-risk increasing drugs” (FRIDs is typically conducted as a fall prevention strategy based on presumptive benefit. Our objective is to determine the efficacy of fall-risk increasing drugs (FRIDs withdrawal on the prevention of falls and fall-related complications. Methods/design We will search for all published and unpublished randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of FRID withdrawal compared to usual care on the rate of falls, incidence of falls, fall-related injuries, fall-related fractures, fall-related hospitalizations, or adverse effects related to the intervention in adults aged 65 years or older. Electronic database searches will be conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, and CINAHL. A grey literature search will be conducted including clinical trial registries and conference proceedings and abstracts. Two reviewers will independently perform in duplicate citation screening, full-text review, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. Conflicts will be resolved through team discussion or by a third reviewer if no consensus can be reached. The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE criteria will be used to independently rate overall confidence in effect estimates for each outcome. Results will be synthesized descriptively, and a random effects meta-analysis will be conducted for each outcome if studies are deemed similar methodologically, clinically, and statistically. Discussion We will attempt to determine whether a FRID withdrawal strategy alone is effective at preventing falls in older adults. Our results will be used to optimize and focus fall prevention strategies and initiatives internationally with a goal of improving the health of older adults. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD

  2. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  3. Bipolar seesaw control on last interglacial sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, G; Rohling, E J; Rodríguez-Sanz, L; Grant, K M; Heslop, D; Roberts, A P; Stanford, J D; Yu, J

    2015-06-11

    Our current understanding of ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere interactions at ice-age terminations relies largely on assessments of the most recent (last) glacial-interglacial transition, Termination I (T-I). But the extent to which T-I is representative of previous terminations remains unclear. Testing the consistency of termination processes requires comparison of time series of critical climate parameters with detailed absolute and relative age control. However, such age control has been lacking for even the penultimate glacial termination (T-II), which culminated in a sea-level highstand during the last interglacial period that was several metres above present. Here we show that Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11), a prominent North Atlantic cold episode, occurred between 135 ± 1 and 130 ± 2 thousand years ago and was linked with rapid sea-level rise during T-II. Our conclusions are based on new and existing data for T-II and the last interglacial that we collate onto a single, radiometrically constrained chronology. The HS11 cold episode punctuated T-II and coincided directly with a major deglacial meltwater pulse, which predominantly entered the North Atlantic Ocean and accounted for about 70 per cent of the glacial-interglacial sea-level rise. We conclude that, possibly in response to stronger insolation and CO2 forcing earlier in T-II, the relationship between climate and ice-volume changes differed fundamentally from that of T-I. In T-I, the major sea-level rise clearly post-dates Heinrich Stadial 1. We also find that HS11 coincided with sustained Antarctic warming, probably through a bipolar seesaw temperature response, and propose that this heat gain at high southern latitudes promoted Antarctic ice-sheet melting that fuelled the last interglacial sea-level peak.

  4. Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittermann, K.; Kemp, A.; Vermeer, M.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2017-12-01

    Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the `Holocene Optimum'. From ­­there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with semi-empirical sea-level models. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., et al. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews, 103, 91

  5. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  6. Tidal marsh plant responses to elevated CO2 , nitrogen fertilization, and sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam Langley, J; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Shepard, Katherine A; Hagerty, Shannon B; Patrick Megonigal, J

    2013-05-01

    Elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) addition directly affect plant productivity and the mechanisms that allow tidal marshes to maintain a constant elevation relative to sea level, but it remains unknown how these global change drivers modify marsh plant response to sea level rise. Here we manipulated factorial combinations of CO2 concentration (two levels), N availability (two levels) and relative sea level (six levels) using in situ mesocosms containing a tidal marsh community composed of a sedge, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a grass, Spartina patens. Our objective is to determine, if elevated CO2 and N alter the growth and persistence of these plants in coastal ecosystems facing rising sea levels. After two growing seasons, we found that N addition enhanced plant growth particularly at sea levels where plants were most stressed by flooding (114% stimulation in the + 10 cm treatment), and N effects were generally larger in combination with elevated CO2 (288% stimulation). N fertilization shifted the optimal productivity of S. patens to a higher sea level, but did not confer S. patens an enhanced ability to tolerate sea level rise. S. americanus responded strongly to N only in the higher sea level treatments that excluded S. patens. Interestingly, addition of N, which has been suggested to accelerate marsh loss, may afford some marsh plants, such as the widespread sedge, S. americanus, the enhanced ability to tolerate inundation. However, if chronic N pollution reduces the availability of propagules of S. americanus or other flood-tolerant species on the landscape scale, this shift in species dominance could render tidal marshes more susceptible to marsh collapse. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  8. Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devlin, Adam T; Jay, David A; Talke, Stefan A; Zaron, Edward D; Pan, Jiayi; Lin, Hui

    2017-12-05

    Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.

  9. Holocene Sea-Level Database For The Caribbean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, N. S.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Scatena, F. N.; Vane, C. H.; Liu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records from far-field locations are important for understanding the driving mechanisms controlling the nature and timing of the mid-late Holocene reduction in global meltwaters and providing background rates of late Holocene RSL change with which to compare the magnitude of 20th century RSL rise. The Caribbean region has traditionally been considered far-field (i.e., with negligible glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) influence), although recent investigations indicate otherwise. Here, we consider the spatial variability in glacio-isostatic, tectonic and local contributions on RSL records from the circum-Caribbean region to infer a Holocene eustatic sea-level signal. We have constructed a database of quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive, Holocene RSL observations for the circum-Caribbean region. The database contains over 500 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space. The database incorporates sea-level observations from a latitudinal range of 5°N to 25°N and longitudinal range of 55°W to 90°W. We include sea-level observations from 11 ka BP to present, although the majority of the index points in the database are younger than 8 ka BP. The database is sub-divided into 13 regions based on the distance from the former Laurentide Ice Sheet and regional tectonic setting. The index points were primarily derived from mangrove peat deposits, which in the Caribbean form in the upper half of the tidal range, and corals (predominantly Acropora palmata), the growth of which is constrained to the upper 5 m of water depth. The index points are classified on the basis of their susceptibility to compaction (e.g., intercalated, basal). The influence of temporal changes in tidal range on index points is also considered. The sea-level reconstructions demonstrate that RSL did not exceed the present height (0 m) during the Holocene in the majority of locations, except at sites in Suriname/Guayana and possibly Trinidad

  10. Sea level change in Great Britain between 1859 and the present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Philip L.

    2018-04-01

    Short records of sea level measurements by the Ordnance Survey at 31 locations in 1859-1860, together with recent Mean Sea Level (MSL) information from the UK tide gauge network, have been used to estimate the average rates of sea level change around the coast of Great Britain since the mid-19th century. Rates are found to be approximately 1 mm yr-1 in excess of those expected for the present day based on geological information, providing evidence for a climate-change related component of the increase in UK sea level. In turn, the rates of change of MSL for the past 60 yr are estimated to be ˜1 mm yr-1 in excess of the long-term rates since 1859, suggesting an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise between the 19th and 20th/21st centuries. Although the historical records are very short (approximately a fortnight), this exercise in `data archaeology' shows how valuable to research even the shortest records can be, as long as the measurements were made by competent people and the datums of the measurements were fully documented.

  11. Low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D are associated with the occurrence of concomitant upper limb fractures in older women who sustain a fall-related fracture of the hip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Monaco, Marco; Vallero, Fulvia; Castiglioni, Carlotta; Di Monaco, Roberto; Tappero, Rosa

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the association between serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and the occurrence of simultaneous fractures of the upper limb in older women who sustain a fall-related fracture of the hip. Cross-sectional study. We investigated 472 of 480 white women consecutively admitted to a rehabilitation hospital because of a fall-related hip fracture. Twenty-seven (5.7%) of the 472 women sustained a concomitant upper-limb fracture of either distal radius (20 women) or proximal humerus (seven women). We assessed serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D 14.2 ± 4.1 (mean ± SD) days after surgical repair of the hip fracture in the 472 women by an immunoenzymatic assay. Twenty-five-hydroxyvitamin D levels were significantly lower in the 27 women with concomitant fractures of both hip and upper limb than in the remaining 445 hip-fracture women: mean ± SD values were 6.5 ± 5.0 ng/ml and 11.7 ± 10.4 ng/ml respectively in the two groups (mean difference between groups 5.2 ng/ml: 95% CI 1.2-9.2; p=0.011). Low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were significantly associated with concomitant fractures of the upper limb (p=0.017), after adjustment for eight potential confounders including age, height, weight, hip-fracture type, cognitive impairment, neurologic impairment, previous hip fracture, and previous upper-limb fracture. Low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were significantly associated with concomitant upper-limb fractures in our sample of older women with a fall-related fracture of the hip. Preventing vitamin D deficiency may lower the incidence of simultaneous fractures due to a singe fall in elderly women. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  13. Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

    2015-05-01

    weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

    2017-11-01

    To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Sea Level Trend and Variability in the Straits of Singapore and Malacca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q.; Tkalich, P.

    2013-12-01

    The Straits of Singapore and Malacca (SSM) connect the Andaman Sea located northeast of the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, the largest marginal sea situated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Consequently, sea level in the SSM is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale sea level variability is dominant by the Asian monsoon. Interannual sea level signals are modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the long term, regional sea level is driven by the global climate change. However, relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on regional sea level in the SSM are yet to be quantified. In present study, publicly available tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data are used to derive long-term sea level trend and variability in SSM. We used the data from research-quality stations, including four located in the Singapore Strait (Tanjong Pagar, Raffles Lighthouse, Sultan Shoal and Sembawang) and seven situated in the Malacca Strait (Kelang, Keling, Kukup, Langkawji, Lumut, Penang and Ko Taphao Noi), each one having 25-39 year data up to the year 2011. Harmonic analysis is performed to filter out astronomic tides from the tide gauge records when necessary; and missing data are reconstructed using identified relationships between sea level and the governing phenomena. The obtained sea level anomalies (SLAs) and reconstructed mean sea level are then validated against satellite altimetry data from AVISO. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea level in the SSM is varying with global mean sea level, rising for the period 1984-2009 at the rate 1.8-2.3 mm/year in the Singapore Strait and 1.1-2.8 mm/year in the Malacca Strait. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ×5 cm with correlation coefficient

  16. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  17. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  18. Exercise and fall prevention self-management to reduce mobility-related disability and falls after fall-related lower limb fracture in older people: protocol for the RESTORE (Recovery Exercises and STepping On afteR fracturE) randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrington, Catherine; Fairhall, Nicola; Kirkham, Catherine; Clemson, Lindy; Howard, Kirsten; Vogler, Constance; Close, Jacqueline C T; Moseley, Anne M; Cameron, Ian D; Mak, Jenson; Sonnabend, David; Lord, Stephen R

    2016-02-02

    Lasting disability and further falls are common and costly problems in older people following fall-related lower limb and pelvic fractures. Exercise interventions can improve mobility after fracture and reduce falls in older people, however the optimal approach to rehabilitation after fall-related lower limb and pelvic fracture is unclear. This randomised controlled trial aims to evaluate the effects of an exercise and fall prevention self-management intervention on mobility-related disability and falls in older people following fall-related lower limb or pelvic fracture. Cost-effectiveness of the intervention will also be investigated. A randomised controlled trial with concealed allocation, assessor blinding for physical performance tests and intention-to-treat analysis will be conducted. Three hundred and fifty people aged 60 years and over with a fall-related lower limb or pelvic fracture, who are living at home or in a low care residential aged care facility and have completed active rehabilitation, will be recruited. Participants will be randomised to receive a 12-month intervention or usual care. The intervention group will receive ten home visits from a physiotherapist to prescribe an individualised exercise program with motivational interviewing, plus fall prevention education through individualised advice from the physiotherapist or attendance at the group based "Stepping On" program (seven two-hour group sessions). Participants will be followed for a 12-month period. Primary outcome measures will be mobility-related disability and falls. Secondary outcomes will include measures of balance and mobility, falls risk, physical activity, walking aid use, frailty, pain, nutrition, falls efficacy, mood, positive and negative affect, quality of life, assistance required, hospital readmission, and health-system and community-service contact. This study will determine the effect and cost-effectiveness of this exercise self management intervention on mobility-related

  19. Sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Pavlov, Vladimir; Bourke, Robert H.

    2001-01-01

    The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012760 About 60 tide-gauge stations in the Kara, Laptev, East-Siberian and Chukchi Seas have recorded the sea level change from the 1950s through 1990s. Over this 40-year period, most of these stations show a significant sea level rise (SLR). In light of global change, this SLR could be a manifestation of warming in the Artic coupled with a decrease of sea ice extent, warming of Atlantic waters, changes in...

  20. Falls relate to vitamin D and parathyroid hormone in an Australian nursing home and hostel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, M S; Wark, J D; Scherer, S C; Walton, S L; Chick, P; Di Carlantonio, M; Zajac, J D; Flicker, L

    1999-10-01

    To determine whether falling relates to serum levels of vitamin D and parathyroid hormone. A cross-sectional study with retrospective analysis. An aged-care institution in Melbourne Australia. Ambulant nursing home and hostel residents (n = 83). Frequency of falling, frequency of going outdoors, use of cane or walker, age, sex, weight, type of accommodation, and duration of residence. Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, and parathyroid hormone (PTH). Plasma concentrations of albumin, calcium, phosphate, and creatinine. Use of furosemide or non-benzodiazepine anticonvulsants. Median age of residents was 84 years. The cohort was vitamin D deficient with a median (interquartile range) 25-hydroxyvitamin D level of 27 (18-37) nmol/L (one-third the reference range median), P falling, higher serum PTH remained independently associated with falling, with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for falling of 5.6 (1.7-18.5) per unit of the natural logarithm of serum PTH. Other terms in the regression were hostel accommodation, odds ratio .04 (.01-.25), and ability to walk without aids, odds ratio .07 (.01-.37). In ambulant nursing home and hostel residents, residents who fall have lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and higher serum parathyroid hormone levels than other residents. The association between falling and serum PTH persists after adjustment for other variables.

  1. Comparison of the Validity of Four Fall-Related Psychological Measures in a Community-Based Falls Risk Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Delilah S.; Ellis, Rebecca; Kosma, Maria; Fabre, Jennifer M.; McCarter, Kevin S.; Wood, Robert H.

    2011-01-01

    We examined the measurement properties of fall-related psychological instruments with a sample of 133 older adults (M age = 74.4 years, SD = 9.4). Measures included the Comprehensive Falls Risk Screening Instrument, Falls-efficacy Scale-International (FES-I), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC), modified Survey of Activities and Fear of…

  2. Temporal and Spatial Variations of Bacterial and Faunal Communities Associated with Deep-Sea Wood Falls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bienhold, Christina; Wenzhöfer, Frank; Rossel, Pamela E.; Boetius, Antje

    2017-01-01

    Sinking of large organic food falls i.e. kelp, wood and whale carcasses to the oligotrophic deep-sea floor promotes the establishment of locally highly productive and diverse ecosystems, often with specifically adapted benthic communities. However, the fragmented spatial distribution and small area poses challenges for the dispersal of their microbial and faunal communities. Our study focused on the temporal dynamics and spatial distributions of sunken wood bacterial communities, which were deployed in the vicinity of different cold seeps in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Norwegian deep-seas. By combining fingerprinting of bacterial communities by ARISA and 454 sequencing with in situ and ex situ biogeochemical measurements, we show that sunken wood logs have a locally confined long-term impact (> 3y) on the sediment geochemistry and community structure. We confirm previous hypotheses of different successional stages in wood degradation including a sulphophilic one, attracting chemosynthetic fauna from nearby seep systems. Wood experiments deployed at similar water depths (1100–1700 m), but in hydrographically different oceanic regions harbored different wood-boring bivalves, opportunistic faunal communities, and chemosynthetic species. Similarly, bacterial communities on sunken wood logs were more similar within one geographic region than between different seas. Diverse sulphate-reducing bacteria of the Deltaproteobacteria, the sulphide-oxidizing bacteria Sulfurovum as well as members of the Acidimicrobiia and Bacteroidia dominated the wood falls in the Eastern Mediterranean, while Alphaproteobacteria and Flavobacteriia colonized the Norwegian Sea wood logs. Fauna and bacterial wood-associated communities changed between 1 to 3 years of immersion, with sulphate-reducers and sulphide-oxidizers increasing in proportion, and putative cellulose degraders decreasing with time. Only 6% of all bacterial genera, comprising the core community, were found at any time

  3. Temporal and Spatial Variations of Bacterial and Faunal Communities Associated with Deep-Sea Wood Falls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Pop Ristova

    Full Text Available Sinking of large organic food falls i.e. kelp, wood and whale carcasses to the oligotrophic deep-sea floor promotes the establishment of locally highly productive and diverse ecosystems, often with specifically adapted benthic communities. However, the fragmented spatial distribution and small area poses challenges for the dispersal of their microbial and faunal communities. Our study focused on the temporal dynamics and spatial distributions of sunken wood bacterial communities, which were deployed in the vicinity of different cold seeps in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Norwegian deep-seas. By combining fingerprinting of bacterial communities by ARISA and 454 sequencing with in situ and ex situ biogeochemical measurements, we show that sunken wood logs have a locally confined long-term impact (> 3y on the sediment geochemistry and community structure. We confirm previous hypotheses of different successional stages in wood degradation including a sulphophilic one, attracting chemosynthetic fauna from nearby seep systems. Wood experiments deployed at similar water depths (1100-1700 m, but in hydrographically different oceanic regions harbored different wood-boring bivalves, opportunistic faunal communities, and chemosynthetic species. Similarly, bacterial communities on sunken wood logs were more similar within one geographic region than between different seas. Diverse sulphate-reducing bacteria of the Deltaproteobacteria, the sulphide-oxidizing bacteria Sulfurovum as well as members of the Acidimicrobiia and Bacteroidia dominated the wood falls in the Eastern Mediterranean, while Alphaproteobacteria and Flavobacteriia colonized the Norwegian Sea wood logs. Fauna and bacterial wood-associated communities changed between 1 to 3 years of immersion, with sulphate-reducers and sulphide-oxidizers increasing in proportion, and putative cellulose degraders decreasing with time. Only 6% of all bacterial genera, comprising the core community, were

  4. Home ownership and fall-related outcomes among older adults in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, Young Kyung; Kim, Cheong-Seok

    2013-10-01

    Many of the previously identified environmental risk factors for fall-related outcomes (e.g. flooring, stairs and steps, kitchen, and bathrooms) are amenable to change, but the extent of the changes on these home-related risk factors are conditional on home ownership of the elderly. This study aims to test whether lack of home ownership is associated with a higher risk of falls, and a higher likelihood of reporting fear of falling and activity limitations due to fear of falling among older adults in South Korea. Using data from the first two waves (2006 and 2008) of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging, the associations between home ownership variables and three fall-related outcomes were examined in two regression models. A logistic regression model of any falls in the past 2 years was estimated to examine whether older adults living in short-term rental homes based on monthly rent have an increased risk of falls. A probit model accounting for sample selection was estimated to examine whether the two related outcomes, fear of falling and limiting activities due to fear of falling, are associated with home ownership status. Compared with owned home, short-term rental home predicted a higher likelihood of incident of falls and activity limitation due to fear of falling. The study findings suggest that the lack of home ownership with unstable housing tenure is an important risk factor for fall-related outcomes among older adults in South Korea. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  5. Changing Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, David

    2004-04-01

    Flooding of coastal communities is one of the major causes of environmental disasters world-wide. This textbook explains how sea levels are affected by astronomical tides, weather effects, ocean circulation and climate trends. Based on courses taught by the author in the U.K. and the U.S., it is aimed at undergraduate students at all levels, with non-basic mathematics being confined to Appendices and a website http://publishing.cambridge.org/resources/0521532183/.

  6. Impact of fall-related behaviors as risk factors for falls among the elderly patients with dementia in a geriatric facility in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Mizue; Kurata, Sadami; Yamamoto, Emiko; Makino, Kumiko; Kanamori, Masao

    2012-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to clarify potential fall-related behaviors as fall risk factors that may predict the potential for falls among the elderly patients with dementia at a geriatric facility in Japan. This study was conducted from April 2008 to May 2009. A baseline study was conducted in April 2008 to evaluate Mini-Mental State Examination, Physical Self-Maintenance Scale, fall-related behaviors, and other factors. For statistical analysis, paired t test and logistic analysis were used to compare each item between fallers and nonfallers. A total of 135 participants were followed up for 1 year; 50 participants (37.04%) fell during that period. Results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the total score for fall-related behaviors was significantly related to falls. It was suggested that 11 fall-related behaviors may be effective indicators to predict falls among the elderly patients with dementia.

  7. Atmospheric forcing on the seasonal variability of sea level at Cochin, southwest coast of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, K.; Dinesh Kumar, P. K.

    2006-07-01

    The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well as equatorward volume transport by coastal currents along the Indian peninsula could play an important role in the sea level low during the premonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons. During postmonsoon season, along-shore wind stress plays no major role in the high sea level whereas this could be due to the poleward volume transport by the coastal along-shore currents. Atmospheric pressure and river discharge do not seem to influence much the sea level during the southwest monsoon period, even though the river discharge during that period is considerable. The sea level was minimal during the southwest monsoon season, when the river discharge was at its annual maximum. The difference between the seasonal march of observed and pressure corrected sea level (CSL) was not significant for the study region. Harmonic analysis of the climatological data on the various parameters revealed that air temperature is the only parameter with a dominance of the semi-annual over the annual cycle. Cross-shore wind stress indicated strong interannual variability whereas relative density showed strong seasonal variability. The climatological seasonal cycles of CSL at eight other tide gauge stations along the west coast of the Indian subcontinent are also examined, to assess the role of various forcings on the seasonal sea level cycle. The signatures of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could be seen in some of the parameters (SST, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, along-shore wind stress, relative density and sea level). The signature of ENSO was particularly strong in the case of atmospheric pressure followed by relative density, the variance accounted by the relationship being 47% and 16%, respectively.

  8. Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

  9. Sea level oscillations over minute timescales: a global perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibic, Ivica; Sepic, Jadranka

    2016-04-01

    Sea level oscillations occurring over minutes to a few hours are an important contributor to sea level extremes, and a knowledge on their behaviour is essential for proper quantification of coastal marine hazards. Tsunamis, meteotsunamis, infra-gravity waves and harbour oscillations may even dominate sea level extremes in certain areas and thus pose a great danger for humans and coastal infrastructure. Aside for tsunamis, which are, due to their enormous impact to the coastlines, a well-researched phenomena, the importance of other high-frequency oscillations to the sea level extremes is still underrated, as no systematic long-term measurements have been carried out at a minute timescales. Recently, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established Sea Level Monitoring Facility portal (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org), making 1-min sea level data publicly available for several hundred tide gauge sites in the World Ocean. Thereafter, a global assessment of oscillations over tsunami timescales become possible; however, the portal contains raw sea level data only, being unchecked for spikes, shifts, drifts and other malfunctions of instruments. We present a quality assessment of these data, estimates of sea level variances and contributions of high-frequency processes to the extremes throughout the World Ocean. This is accompanied with assessment of atmospheric conditions and processes which generate intense high-frequency oscillations.

  10. [Systematic review of fall-related factors among the house-dwelling elderly in Japan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueno, Megumi; Kawai, Sachio; Mino, Tairai; Kamoshita, Hiroshi

    2006-01-01

    Fall-related factors and individual characteristics of the elderly who have had fall are necessary to develop practical fall prevention programs, and life support management. However, no nation-wide meta-analysis of the fall-related factors of elderly has been performed in Japan. To conduct a meta-analysis concerning fall-related factors among the house-dwelling elderly in Japan. Japana Centra Revuo Medicina, version 3 (systematic literature search system for Japanese literature), and Pub Med (a service of the National Library of Medicine) from January 1994 to December 2003. Study search terms included the following: retrograde case-control, prospective cohort, and retrospective cohort study with falls. Search terms included older adults (60 years and over), falls and humans. Thirty-two fall-related factors were meta-analyzed. Among 32 fall-related factors, only nine factors were statistically proven to be related to falls. These factors were female gender, age over 70 years old, fall experience, past history of cerebrovascular disease, grip strength, knee extensor strength, one foot standing time with eyes open, one foot standing time with eyes closed, and skinfold thickness (female). Eleven factors: presence of a spouse, past medical history of hypertension, complaints of dizziness, numbness of the extremities, 10 meter maximum walking velocity, tendency to stumble, use of supportive equipment, standing postural sway. sitting trunk flexion, skinfold thickness (male), and body mass index, were not statistically proven to be related to falls. More studies are necessary to determine the efficacy of fall-related factors among the Japanese elderly.

  11. A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

    OpenAIRE

    Spratt Rachel M; Lisiecki Lorraine E

    2016-01-01

    Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal componen...

  12. Modelling Morphological Response of Large Tidal Inlet Systems to Sea Level Rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dissanayake, P.K.

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation qualitatively investigates the morphodynamic response of a large inlet system to IPCC projected relative sea level rise (RSLR). Adopted numerical approach (Delft3D) used a highly schematised model domain analogous to the Ameland inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Predicted inlet

  13. Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

  14. Should We Leave? Attitudes towards Relocation in Response to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The participation of individuals contributes significantly to the success of sea level rise adaptation. This study therefore addresses what influences people’s likelihood of relocating away from low-lying areas in response to rising sea levels. The analysis was based on a survey conducted in the City of Panama Beach in Florida (USA. Survey items relate to people’s risk perception, hazard experience, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal, whose theoretical background is Protection Motivation Theory. Descriptive and correlation analysis was first performed to highlight critical factors which were then examined by a multinomial Logit model. Results show that sea level rise awareness is the major explanatory variable. Coping appraisal is qualitatively viewed as a strong predictor for action, while threat appraisal is statistically significant in driving relocation intention. These factors should be integrated in current risk communication regarding sea level rise.

  15. Trends in fall-related hospital admissions in older persons in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartholt, Klaas A.; van der Velde, Nathalie; Looman, Caspar W. N.; van Lieshout, Esther M. M.; Panneman, Martien J. M.; van Beeck, Ed F.; Patka, Peter; van der Cammen, Tischa J. M.

    2010-01-01

    Fall-related injuries, hospitalizations, and mortality among older persons represent a major public health problem. Owing to aging societies worldwide, a major impact on fall-related health care demand can be expected. We determined time trends in numbers and incidence of fall-related hospital

  16. Fear of falling and falls self-efficacy and their relationship to higher-level competence among community-dwelling senior men and women in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsumata, Yuriko; Arai, Asuna; Tomimori, Masashi; Ishida, Kozo; Lee, Romeo B; Tamashiro, Hiko

    2011-07-01

    This cross-sectional study examined the relationships of fear of falling and falls self-efficacy with higher-level competence among community-dwelling senior citizens in Japan. Of the 822 registered senior citizens, 731 (89%) community dwellers were requested to participate in the survey using a mailed self-accomplished questionnaire. Data from 648 respondents with duly accomplished questionnaires were analyzed using R(2) , the coefficient of determination, based on a multivariate regression analysis. Fear of falling, low falls self-efficacy and higher-level functional disability were observed among respondents. Of the hypothesized relationships examined by sex, fear of falling was significantly associated with disability among male respondents and low falls self-efficacy among both sexes. Several confounding variables were strongly associated with competence. While the data underscore the strategic importance of promoting higher-level competence among the senior citizens, there is much to suggest that their competence is likely to be maintained if their fear of falling and falls self-efficacy were modified. Programs must also consider a wide array of intervening factors. © 2011 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  17. The Impact of a Training Intervention Program on Fall-related Psychological Factors Among Male Older Adults in Arak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daryoush Khajavi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Falls and fall-related physiological and psychological events are major problems for elderly people. The objective of this research was to examine the effect of an interventional training program on fall-related psychological factors among the elderly men in Arak. Methods & Materials: In this quasi experiment research on male older adults in Arak, 27 participants randomly assigned to Control group (mean age=70.21±6.65 and Experimental group (mean age=66.07±4.38. Experimental group members participated in a 12 week interventional training program. Results: The findings showed that training intervention program improved fall-related psychological factors (Fall Self-Efficacy/Fear of Fall and Activities-specific Balance Confidence/Balance Self-Efficacy in experimental group. No significant changes appeared in fall-related psychological factors in control group members who did not perform any regular training program. Conclusion: According to the findings, regular interventional training program can decrease fear of fall and increase balance confidence in performing the activities of everyday life by improving physical and motor fitness levels. These improvements can lead to physical and psychological health, increase in quality of life among older adults, and eventually successful aging.

  18. Sea Levels Online: Sea Level Variations of the United States Derived from National Water Level Observation Network Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Water level records are a combination of the fluctuations of the ocean and the vertical land motion at the location of the station. Monthly mean sea level (MSL)...

  19. Experimental investigation of channel avulsion frequency on river deltas under rising sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, J.; Chadwick, A. J.; Steele, S.; Lamb, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    River deltas are low-relief landscapes that are socioeconomically important; they are home to over half a billion people worldwide. Many deltas are built by cycles of lobe growth punctuated by abrupt channel shifts, or avulsions, which often reoccur at a similar location and with a regular frequency. Previous experimental work has investigated the effect of hydrodynamic backwater in controlling channel avulsion location and timing on deltas under constant sea level conditions, but it is unclear how sea-level rise impacts avulsion dynamics. We present results from a flume experiment designed to isolate the role of relative sea-level rise on the evolution of a backwater-influenced delta. The experiment was conducted in the river-ocean facility at Caltech, where a 7m long, 14cm wide alluvial river drains into a 6m by 3m "ocean" basin. The experimental delta grew under subcritical flow, a persistent backwater zone, and a range of sea level rise rates. Without sea level rise, lobe progradation produced in-channel aggradation and periodic avulsions every 3.6 ± 0.9 hours, which corresponded to when channels aggraded to approximately one-half of their flow depth. With a modest rate of sea-level rise (0.25 mm/hr), we observed enhanced aggradation in the backwater zone, causing channels to aggrade more quickly and avulse more frequently (every 2.1 ± 0.6 hours). In future work, we expect further increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise to cause avulsion frequency to decrease as the delta drowns and the backwater zone retreats upstream. Experimental results can serve as tests of numerical models that are needed for hazard mitigation and coastal sustainability efforts on drowning deltas.

  20. Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Randall W.

    2009-07-01

    Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

  1. The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

    1996-01-01

    The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

  2. Topex-Poseidon analysis of sea level variability over the Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalan P-U, M.; Villares, P.; Catalan, M.; Gomez-Enri, J.

    2003-04-01

    The variability of sea level and surface geostrophic currents in Atlantic Ocean is investigated using 333 cycles of altimeter information obtained by TOPEX-POSEIDON satellite. After the improvements of orbit accuracy, the most important concern to studies of sea level variability from altimeter height data are related with the formalism used for modelling the altimetric measurement corrections. Presently, one of the main sources of potential error is the correction for atmospheric pressure loading, the so-called ‘inverse barometer effect’. As is well known, this correction is intended to adjust the sea surface elevation for the static effects of the downward force of the mass of the atmosphere on the sea surface, adjusted, in this oversimplified model in 1cm/mbar. The exact response of the sea surface to atmospheric pressure loading depends on the space and time scales of the pressure field and must be specially a concern at high latitudes where atmospheric pressure fluctuations are large due to the intensity of low pressure fields at these latitudes and the additional uncertainty in the model estimates of the local sea level pressure. To study these effects over the whole Atlantic Ocean we compute a linear regression adjustment and an Empirical Orthogonal Functions Decomposition (EOFD), between sea level variation without inverse barometer correction and the atmospheric pressure, in all the Topex-Poseidon cross points over the whole Atlantic, including both the Artic and Antarctic Oceans. We use the barometric factor computed from the linear regression to correct the satellite mean sea level variation, comparing the correlation with the pressure. Our results show an important improvement in the decorrelation between sea level and atmospheric pressure time series, compared with the use of Inverse Barometer model, at most of the satellite cross points. The complicated nature of sea level variability at high latitudes justify that EOFD analysis conclusions

  3. Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

  4. Some aspects of floating ice related to sea surface operations in the Barents sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loeset, S.

    1993-01-01

    The present work highlights some aspects of floating ice related to sea surface operations in the Barents sea. The thesis consists of eight papers which fall into two main categories; one part deals with numerical modeling of the temperature distribution and ablation of icebergs (three papers), and the other part studies the behavior of broken ice, focusing on both laboratory experiments and numerical modeling. The temperature distribution within an iceberg affects the mechanical strength of the ice and is therefore crucial in engineering applications when estimating loads from impinging icebergs on offshore structures. A numerical model which simulates the temperature distribution and ablation of icebergs has been developed. The model shows that the depth of the thermal disturbance and slope of the temperature gradient of an iceberg depend on the boundary conditions and the time at sea. By about 12 m into the ice, the temperature is virtually free of any thermal boundary influence. Oil spill response techniques are vulnerable to the presence of sea ice. Deflecting ice upstream of a spill site by means of a flexible boom will facilitate the application of conventional oil spill recovery systems such as oil skimmers and booms. Experiments with such an ice deflecting boom were conducted in an ice tank to determine the loads on the boom and to study the ice-free wake. The study indicated the technical feasibility of the ice boom concept as an operational tool for oil spill cleanups. A two-dimensional discrete element model has been developed. This model simulates the dynamics and interaction forces between distinct ice floes in a broken ice field. The numerical model was applied to estimate the loads on a boom used for ice management. 121 refs., 70 figs., 10 tabs

  5. Spatial sea-level reconstruction in the Baltic Sea and in the Pacific Ocean from tide gauges observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Olivieri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Exploiting the Delaunay interpolation, we present a newly implemented 2-D sea-level reconstruction from coastal sea-level observations to open seas, with the aim of characterizing the spatial variability of the rate of sea-level change. To test the strengths and weaknesses of this method and to determine its usefulness in sea-level interpolation, we consider the case studies of the Baltic Sea and of the Pacific Ocean. In the Baltic Sea, a small basin well sampled by tide gauges, our reconstructions are successfully compared with absolute sea-level observations from altimetry during 1993-2011. The regional variability of absolute sea level observed across the Pacific Ocean, however, cannot be reproduced. We interpret this result as the effect of the uneven and sparse tide gauge data set and of the composite vertical land movements in and around the region. Useful considerations arise that can serve as a basis for developing sophisticated approaches.

  6. Patch-reef morphology as a proxy for Holocene sea-level variability, Northern Florida Keys, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, J.C.; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, M.; Wright, C.W.; Nayegandhi, A.

    2008-01-01

    A portion of the northern Florida Keys reef tract was mapped with the NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) and the morphology of patch reefs was related to variations in Holocene sea level. Following creation of a lidar digital elevation model (DEM), geospatial analyses delineated morphologic attributes of 1,034 patch reefs (reef depth, basal area, height, volume, and topographic complexity). Morphometric analysis revealed two morphologically different populations of patch reefs associated with two distinct depth intervals above and below a water depth of 7.7 m. Compared to shallow reefs, the deep reefs were smaller in area and volume and showed no trend in topographic complexity relative to water depth. Shallow reefs were more variable in area and volume and became flatter and less topographically complex with decreasing water depth. The knoll-like morphology of deep reefs was interpreted as consistent with steady and relatively rapidly rising early Holocene sea level that restricted the lateral growth of reefs. The morphology of shallow 'pancake-shaped' reefs at the highest platform elevations was interpreted as consistent with fluctuating sea level during the late Holocene. Although the ultimate cause for the morphometric depth trends remains open to interpretation, these interpretations are compatible with a recent eustatic sea-level curve that hindcasts fluctuating late Holocene sea level. Thus it is suggested that the morphologic differences represent two stages of reef accretion that occurred during different sea-level conditions. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

  7. Work-related falls among union carpenters in Washington State before and after the Vertical Fall Arrest Standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipscomb, Hester J; Li, Leiming; Dement, John

    2003-08-01

    Washington State enacted a change in their fall standard for the construction industry in 1991, preceding the Safety Standard for Fall Protection in the Construction Industry promulgated by Federal OSHA in 1994. We evaluated changes in the rate of falls from elevations and measures of severity among a large cohort of union carpenters after the fall standard change in Washington State, taking into account the temporal trends in their overall injury rates. There was a significant decrease in the rate of falls from height after the standard went into effect, even after adjusting for the overall decrease in work-related injuries among this cohort. Much of the decrease was immediate, likely representing the publicity surrounding fatal falls and subsequent promulgation of the standard. The greatest decrease was seen between 3 and 3(1/2) years after the standard went into effect. There was a significant reduction in mean paid lost days per event after the standard change and there was a significant reduction in mean cost per fall when adjusting for age and the temporal trend for costs among non-fall injuries. Through the use of observational methods we have demonstrated significant effects of the Washington State Vertical Fall Arrest Standard among carpenters in the absence of a control or comparison group. Without controlling for the temporal trend in overall injury rates, the rate of decline in falls appeared significantly greater, but the more pronounced, but delayed, decline was not seen. The analyses demonstrate potential error in failing to account for temporal patterns or assuming that a decline after an intervention is related to the intervention. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  8. Air pollution related to sea transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massin, J.M.; Hertz, O.

    1993-01-01

    Sea transportation contributes only 1-2% of world CO 2 emissions. Owing to the sulphur concentration in the bunker fuels, this transportation mode represents over 4% of the world SO 2 emissions. In addition, NO x emissions are likely to exceed 7% of the world emissions. SO 2 emissions in the North Sea and the Channel account for 15% of the whole French emissions, NO x emissions for about 10% and CO 2 emissions for about 3%. There are several potential measures to reduce the emissions of ship engines - propelling engines or generator driving engines - improvement of fuel quality, by desulphurizing and prohibiting the use of noxious additives such as PCB; use of alternative fuels; engine optimizing; exhaust gas processing; use of new propelling systems. A new organisation of world marketing of fuels with low or high sulphur levels could also be set up. The Sea Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) discussed this problem during its meeting in 1990. The 73/78 MARPOL convention provides the IMO with an international juridical tool, especially designed for the preclusion of pollution due to sea transportation. It can address the issue of air pollution which requires a concerted approach between seaside countries and the drawing up of international regulations relating to the protection of the sea world. Fuel quality is already controlled by international standards drawn up by ISO. These standards should be improved to reduce air pollution due to sea transportation

  9. Preventing Falls and Related Fractures

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... slowed reflexes. Drinking alcoholic beverages also increases the risk of falling. Alcohol slows reflexes and response time; causes dizziness, sleepiness, or lightheadedness; alters balance; and encourages risky behaviors that can lead to falls. The Force and Direction of a Fall The ...

  10. A synthesis of Cenozoic sedimentation in the North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anell, Ingrid Anna Margareta; Thybo, Hans; Rasmussen, E.S.

    2012-01-01

    study provides a regional synthesis of sedimentation based on a comprehensive interpretation of a regionally covering reflection seismic data set. We relate observations of sediment characteristics and unconformities to the geological evolution. The timing, regional expression and stratigraphic...... characteristics of many unconformities indicate that they were generated by eustatic sea-level fall, often in conjunction with other processes. Early Cenozoic unconformities, however, relate to tectonism associated with the opening of the North Atlantic. From observation on a regional scale, we infer...

  11. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

  12. NEA Research and Environmental Surveillance Programme related to sea disposal of low-level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruegger, B.; Templeton, W.L.; Gurbutt, P.

    1983-05-01

    Sea dumping operations of certain types of packaged low and medium-level radioactive wastes have been carried out since 1967 in the North-East Atlantic under the auspices of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. On the occasion of the 1980 review of the continued suitability of the North-East Atlantic site used for the disposal of radioactive waste, it was recommended that an effort should be made to increase the scientific data base relating to the oceanographic and biological characteristics of the dumping area. In particular, it was suggested that a site specific model of the transfer of radionuclides in the marine environment be developed, which would permit a better assessment of the potential radiation doses to man from the dumping of radioactive waste. To fulfill these objectives a research and environmental surveillance programme related to sea disposal of radioactive waste was set up in 1981 with the participation of thirteen Member countries and the International Laboratory for Marine Radioactivity of the IAEA in Monaco. The research program is focused on five research areas which are directly relevant to the preparation of more site-specific assessments in the future. They are: model development; physical oceanography; geochemistry; biology; and radiological surveillance. Promising results have already been obtained and more are anticipated in the not too distant future. An interim description of the NEA dumping site has been prepared which provides an excellent data base for this area (NEA 1983).It includes data in bathymetry, isopycnal topography, local and larger scale currents, sediment distribution and sedimentary processes, hydrochemistry, deep ocean biology and results of radiochemical analyses of sea water, sediments and biological materials. The modelling work is also well advanced allowing comparison of results obtained from different codes. After integration of the models, sensitivity analyses will provide indications for future research needs

  13. Rising sea levels and small island states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leatherman, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    A review is given of the problems small island nations face with respect to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many small island nations are very vulnerable to sea level rise. Particularly at risk are coral reef atolls, which are generally quite small, lie within three metres of current sea levels, and have no land at higher elevations to relocate populations and economic activity. Volcanic islands in the Pacific have high ground, but it is largely rugged, high relief and soil-poor. The most vulnerable islands are those that consist entirely of atolls and reef islands, such as Kirabai, Maldives, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Small island states, which by themselves have little power or influence in world affairs, have banded together to form the Strategic Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This alliance had grown to include 42 states by the time of the 1992 U.N. Earth Summit. Although the greenhouse effect is mainly caused by industrial nations, developing countries will suffer the most from it. Choices of response strategy will depend on environmental, economic and social factors. Most small island nations do not have the resources to fight sea level rise in the way that the Dutch have. Retreat can occur as a gradual process or as catastrophic abandonment. Prohibiting construction close to the water's edge is a good approach. Sea level histories for each island state should be compiled and updated, island geomorphology and settlement patterns should be surveyed to determine risk areas, storm regimes should be determined, and information on coastal impacts of sea level rise should be disseminated to the public

  14. Impact of remote oceanic forcing on Gulf of Alaska sea levels and mesoscale circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Metzger, E. Joseph; Hurlburt, Harley E.

    2003-11-01

    We examine the relative importance of regional wind forcing and teleconnections by an oceanic pathway for impact on interannual ocean circulation variability in the Gulf of Alaska. Any additional factors that contribute to this variability, such as freshwater forcing from river runoff, are disregarded. The study is based on results from numerical simulations, sea level data from tide gauge stations, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimeter data. At the heart of this investigation is a comparison of ocean simulations that include and exclude interannual oceanic teleconnections of an equatorial origin. Using lagged correlations, the model results imply that 70-90% of the interannual coastal sea level variance in the Gulf of Alaska can be related to interannual sea levels at La Libertad, Equador. These values are higher than the corresponding range from sea level data, which is 25-55%. When oceanic teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific are excluded in the model, the explained variance becomes about 20% or less. During poleward propagation the coastally trapped sea level signal in the model is less attenuated than the observed signal. In the Gulf of Alaska we find well-defined sea level peaks in the aftermath of El Niño events. The interannual intensity of eddies in the Gulf of Alaska also peaks after El Niño events; however, these maxima are less clear after weak and moderate El Niño events. The interannual variations in eddy activity intensity are predominantly governed by the regional atmospheric forcing.

  15. Decadal trends in deep ocean salinity and regional effects on steric sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkey, S. G.; Llovel, W.

    2017-12-01

    We present deep (below 2000 m) and abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean salinity trends from the 1990s through the 2010s and assess the role of deep salinity in local and global sea level budgets. Deep salinity trends are assessed using all deep basins with available full-depth, high-quality hydrographic section data that have been occupied two or more times since the 1980s through either the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Hydrographic Program or the Global Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP). All salinity data is calibrated to standard seawater and any intercruise offsets applied. While the global mean deep halosteric contribution to sea level rise is close to zero (-0.017 +/- 0.023 mm/yr below 4000 m), there is a large regional variability with the southern deep basins becoming fresher and northern deep basins becoming more saline. This meridional gradient in the deep salinity trend reflects different mechanisms driving the deep salinity variability. The deep Southern Ocean is freshening owing to a recent increased flux of freshwater to the deep ocean. Outside of the Southern Ocean, the deep salinity and temperature changes are tied to isopycnal heave associated with a falling of deep isopycnals in recent decades. Therefore, regions of the ocean with a deep salinity minimum are experiencing both a halosteric contraction with a thermosteric expansion. While the thermosteric expansion is larger in most cases, in some regions the halosteric compensates for as much as 50% of the deep thermal expansion, making a significant contribution to local sea level rise budgets.

  16. Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri Le Cozannet

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS. To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1 research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2 cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.

  17. Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

    Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

  18. Prevalence and Determinants of Fall-Related Injuries among Older Adults in Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos H. Orces

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To estimate the prevalence and determinants of fall-related injuries in the previous year among adults aged 60 years or older in Ecuador. Methods. The prevalence of fall-related injuries was estimated using cross-sectional data from the first national survey of Health, Wellbeing, and Aging study. Logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between participants’ demographic characteristics and fall-related injuries. Results. Of 5,227 participants with a mean age of 72.6 years, 11.4% (95% CI, 10.3%–12.7% reported a fall-related injury in Ecuador, representing an estimated 136,000 adults aged 60 years or older. Fall-related injuries were more frequently reported among older adults residing in the most urbanized and populated provinces of the country. After controlling for potential confounders, self-reported race as Indigenous (OR 2.2; 95% CI, 2.11–2.31, drinking alcohol regularly (OR 2.54; 95% CI, 2.46–2.63, subjects with greater number of comorbid conditions (OR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.97–2.08, and urinary incontinence (OR 1.83; 95% CI, 1.79–1.87 were factors independently associated with increased odds of sustaining fall-related injuries. Conclusions. Fall-related injuries represent a considerable burden for older adults in Ecuador. The present findings may assist public health authorities to implement fall prevention programs among subjects at higher risk for this type of injury.

  19. Geophysical Imaging of Sea-level Proxies in Beach-Ridge Deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, L.; Emerich Souza, P.; Meldgaard, A.; Bendixen, M.; Kroon, A.; Clemmensen, L. B.

    2017-12-01

    We show ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection data collected over modern and fossil beach deposits from different localities along coastlines in meso-tidal regimes of Greenland and micro-tidal regimes of Denmark. The acquired reflection GPR sections show several similar characteristics but also some differences. A similar characteristic is the presence of downlapping reflections, where the downlap point is interpreted to mark the transition from upper shoreface to beachface deposits and, thus, be a marker of a level close to or at sea-level at the time of deposition. Differences in grain size of the investigated beach ridge system result in different scattering characteristics of the acquired GPR data. These differences call for tailored, careful processing of the GPR data for optimal imaging of internal beach ridge architecture. We outline elements of the GPR data processing of particular importance for optimal imaging. Moreover, we discuss advantages and challenges related to using GPR-based proxies of sea-level as compared to other methods traditionally used for establishment of curves of past sea-level variation.

  20. Ice volume and climate changes from a 6000 year sea-level record in French Polynesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N; Camoin, G; Eisenhauer, A; Botella, A; Milne, G A; Vella, C; Samankassou, E; Pothin, V; Dussouillez, P; Fleury, J; Fietzke, J

    2018-01-18

    Mid- to late-Holocene sea-level records from low-latitude regions serve as an important baseline of natural variability in sea level and global ice volume prior to the Anthropocene. Here, we reconstruct a high-resolution sea-level curve encompassing the last 6000 years based on a comprehensive study of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders. Our curve is based on microatolls from several islands in a single region and comprises a total of 82 sea-level index points. Assuming thermosteric contributions are negligible on millennial time scales, our results constrain global ice melting to be 1.5-2.5 m (sea-level equivalent) since ~5500 years before present. The reconstructed curve includes isolated rapid events of several decimetres within a few centuries, one of which is most likely related to loss from the Antarctic ice sheet mass around 5000 years before present. In contrast, the occurrence of large and flat microatolls indicates periods of significant sea-level stability lasting up to ~300 years.

  1. Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamisiea, Mark E.; Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.; Bingley, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. PMID:25157196

  2. Statistical analysis of the acceleration of Baltic mean sea-level rise, 1900-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgit Hünicke

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyse annual mean sea-level records from tide-gauges located in the Baltic and parts of the North Sea with the aim of detecting an acceleration of sea-level rise over the 20textsuperscript{th} and 21textsuperscript{st} centuries. The acceleration is estimated as a (1 fit to a polynomial of order two in time, (2 a long-term linear increase in the rates computed over gliding overlapping decadal time segments, and (3 a long-term increase of the annual increments of sea level.The estimation methods (1 and (2 prove to be more powerful in detecting acceleration when tested with sea-level records produced in global climate model simulations. These methods applied to the Baltic-Sea tide-gauges are, however, not powerful enough to detect a significant acceleration in most of individual records, although most estimated accelerations are positive. This lack of detection of statistically significant acceleration at the individual tide-gauge level can be due to the high-level of local noise and not necessarily to the absence of acceleration.The estimated accelerations tend to be stronger in the north and east of the Baltic Sea. Two hypothesis to explain this spatial pattern have been explored. One is that this pattern reflects the slow-down of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. However, a simple estimation of this effect suggests that this slow-down cannot explain the estimated acceleration. The second hypothesis is related to the diminishing sea-ice cover over the 20textsuperscript{th} century. The melting o of less saline and colder sea-ice can lead to changes in sea-level. Also, the melting of sea-ice can reduce the number of missing values in the tide-gauge records in winter, potentially influencing the estimated trends and acceleration of seasonal mean sea-level This hypothesis cannot be ascertained either since the spatial pattern of acceleration computed for winter and summer separately are very similar. The all-station-average-record displays an

  3. Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

    2012-04-01

    In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade

  4. Climate And Sea Level: It's In Our Hands Now

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Bell, R. E.; Ryan, W. B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in sea level are measurable on both a local and a global scale providing an accessible way to connect climate to education, yet engaging teachers and students with the complex science that is behind the change in sea level can be a challenge. Deciding how much should be included and just how it should be introduced in any single classroom subject area can be an obstacle for a teacher. The Sea Level Rise Polar Explorer App developed through the PoLAR CCEP grant offers a guided tour through the many layers of science that impact sea level rise. This map-based data-rich app is framed around a series of questions that move the user through map layers with just the level of complexity they chose to explore. For a quick look teachers and students can review a 3 or 4 sentence introduction on how the given map links to sea level and then launch straight into the interactive touchable map. For a little more in depth look they can listen to (or read) a one-minute recorded background on the data displayed in the map prior to launching in. For those who want more in depth understanding they can click to a one page background piece on the topic with links to further visualizations, videos and data. Regardless of the level of complexity selected each map is composed of clickable data allowing the user to fully explore the science. The different options for diving in allow teachers to differentiate the learning for either the subject being taught or the user level of the student group. The map layers also include a range of complexities. Basic questions like "What is sea level?" talk about shorelines, past sea levels and elevations beneath the sea. Questions like "Why does sea level change?" includes slightly more complex issues like the role of ocean temperature, and how that differs from ocean heat content. And what is the role of the warming atmosphere in sea level change? Questions about "What about sea level in the past?" can bring challenges for students who have

  5. Precise mean sea level measurements using the Global Positioning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelecy, Thomas M.; Born, George H.; Parke, Michael E.; Rocken, Christian

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a sea level measurement test conducted off La Jolla, California, in November of 1991. The purpose of this test was to determine accurate sea level measurements using a Global Positioning System (GPS) equipped buoy. These measurements were intended to be used as the sea level component for calibration of the ERS 1 satellite altimeter. Measurements were collected on November 25 and 28 when the ERS 1 satellite overflew the calibration area. Two different types of buoys were used. A waverider design was used on November 25 and a spar design on November 28. This provided the opportunity to examine how dynamic effects of the measurement platform might affect the sea level accuracy. The two buoys were deployed at locations approximately 1.2 km apart and about 15 km west of a reference GPS receiver located on the rooftop of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography. GPS solutions were computed for 45 minutes on each day and used to produce two sea level time series. An estimate of the mean sea level at both locations was computed by subtracting tide gage data collected at the Scripps Pier from the GPS-determined sea level measurements and then filtering out the high-frequency components due to waves and buoy dynamics. In both cases the GPS estimate differed from Rapp's mean altimetric surface by 0.06 m. Thus, the gradient in the GPS measurements matched the gradient in Rapp's surface. These results suggest that accurate sea level can be determined using GPS on widely differing platforms as long as care is taken to determine the height of the GPS antenna phase center above water level. Application areas include measurement of absolute sea level, of temporal variations in sea level, and of sea level gradients (dominantly the geoid). Specific applications would include ocean altimeter calibration, monitoring of sea level in remote regions, and regional experiments requiring spatial and

  6. Modeling of Coastal Inundation, Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, USA 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...tive comments on the manuscript. Permission was granted by the Chief, USACE, to publish this information. LITERATURE CITED Blanton, B.; Stillwell, L...Geospatial Center. http://www.agc.army.mil/ (accessed February 29, 2012). Vickery, P.; Wadhera, D.; Cox, A.; Cardone , V.; Hanson, J., and Blanton, B

  7. Sea Level Data Archaeology for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andy; Rickards, Lesley; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) was set up in 1985 to collect long term tide gauge observations and has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, including sending member organisations questionnaires to report on their repositories. The GLOSS Group of Experts (GLOSS GE) is looking to future developments in sea level data archaeology and will provide its user community with guidance on finding, digitising, quality controlling and distributing historic records. Many records may not be held in organisational archives and may instead by in national libraries, archives and other collections. GLOSS will promote a Citizen Science approach to discovering long term records by providing tools for volunteers to report data. Tide gauge data come in two different formats, charts and hand-written ledgers. Charts are paper analogue records generated by the mechanical instrument driving a pen trace. Several GLOSS members have developed software to automatically digitise these charts and the various methods were reported in a paper on automated techniques for the digitization of archived mareograms, delivered to the GLOSS GE 13th meeting. GLOSS is creating a repository of software for scanning analogue charts. NUNIEAU is the only publically available software for digitising tide gauge charts but other organisations have developed their own tide gauge digitising software that is available internally. There are several other freely available software packages that convert image data to numerical values. GLOSS could coordinate a comparison study of the various different digitising software programs by: Sending the same charts to each organisation and asking everyone to digitise them using their own procedures Comparing the digitised data Providing recommendations to the GLOSS community The other major form of analogue sea level data is handwritten ledgers, which are usually observations of high and low waters, but sometimes contain higher

  8. The risk factors for impulsivity-related falls among hospitalized older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Marisa; Harrison, Barbara; Lewis, Doresea

    2012-01-01

    Falls among older adults are a common, preventable problem associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Impulsivity is a known risk factor for older adult falls; however, there is a gap in evidence demonstrating the unique risk factors associated with impulsivity related falls (IRF). The research explored the association between seven fall risk factors and impulsivity related falls in hospitalized older adults in a community hospital. This retrospective descriptive study analyzed the association between seven fall risk factors and IRF in hospitalized older adults. The sample (N = 233) included patients age 65 years and older who had a documented in-patient fall in 2008. Of the falls, 29.7% were classified as IRF. The mean age of patients with IRF was 78 years, with the median day of fall being Day 5 of hospitalization/rehabilitation admission. Logistic regression demonstrated that only inattention and cognitive impairment were significant risk factors for IRF. The incidence of IRF was 29.7%. Our findings also indicate that cognitive impairment and inattention are strongest predictors for IRF among usual risk factors. Early identification of the unique risk factors associated with IRF could improve identification and reduce fall rates among hospitalized older adults. © 2012 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

  9. Comparative composition, diversity and trophic ecology of sediment macrofauna at vents, seeps and organic falls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo F Bernardino

    Full Text Available Sediments associated with hydrothermal venting, methane seepage and large organic falls such as whale, wood and plant detritus create deep-sea networks of soft-sediment habitats fueled, at least in part, by the oxidation of reduced chemicals. Biological studies at deep-sea vents, seeps and organic falls have looked at macrofaunal taxa, but there has yet to be a systematic comparison of the community-level attributes of sediment macrobenthos in various reducing ecosystems. Here we review key similarities and differences in the sediment-dwelling assemblages of each system with the goals of (1 generating a predictive framework for the exploration and study of newly identified reducing habitats, and (2 identifying taxa and communities that overlap across ecosystems. We show that deep-sea seep, vent and organic-fall sediments are highly heterogeneous. They sustain different geochemical and microbial processes that are reflected in a complex mosaic of habitats inhabited by a mixture of specialist (heterotrophic and symbiont-associated and background fauna. Community-level comparisons reveal that vent, seep and organic-fall macrofauna are very distinct in terms of composition at the family level, although they share many dominant taxa among these highly sulphidic habitats. Stress gradients are good predictors of macrofaunal diversity at some sites, but habitat heterogeneity and facilitation often modify community structure. The biogeochemical differences across ecosystems and within habitats result in wide differences in organic utilization (i.e., food sources and in the prevalence of chemosynthesis-derived nutrition. In the Pacific, vents, seeps and organic-falls exhibit distinct macrofaunal assemblages at broad-scales contributing to ß diversity. This has important implications for the conservation of reducing ecosystems, which face growing threats from human activities.

  10. Mass-induced [|#8#|]Sea Level Variations in the Red Sea from Satellite Altimetry and GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, W.; Lemoine, J.; Zhong, M.; Hsu, H.

    2011-12-01

    We have analyzed mass-induced sea level variations (SLVs) in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE between January 2003 and December 2010. The steric component of SLVs in the Red Sea calculated from climatological temperature and salinity data is relatively small and anti-phase with the mass-induced SLV. The total SLV in the Red Sea is mainly driven by the mass-induced SLV, which increases in winter when the Red Sea gains the water mass from the Gulf of Aden and vice versa in summer. Spatial and temporal patterns of mass-induced SLVs in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry agree very well with GRACE observations. Both of two independent observations show high annual amplitude in the central Red Sea (>20cm). Total mass-induced SLVs in the Red Sea from two independent observations have similar annual amplitude and phase. One main purpose of our work is to see whether GRGS's ten-day GRACE results can observe intra-seasonal mass change in the Red Sea. The wavelet coherence analysis indicates that GRGS's results show the high correlation with the steric-corrected SLVs on intra-seasonal time scale. The agreement is excellent for all the time-span until 1/3 year period and is patchy between 1/3 and 1/16 year period. Furthermore, water flux estimates from current-meter arrays and moorings show mass gain in winter and mass loss in summer, which is also consistent with altimetry and GRACE.

  11. Covariance Between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds Within Atmospheric State Regimes at the Satellite Footprint Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

  12. Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-12-27

    Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

  13. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-02-20

    Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

  14. Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darwin, R.F.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2001-01-01

    Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations: (1) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (2) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (3) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages. 43 refs

  15. A decreasing trend in fall-related hip fracture incidence in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, E; Clapperton, A

    2013-01-01

    In Victoria, Australia, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased significantly by 25% over the period 1998/1999-2008/2009. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people. The study aim was to investigate trends in the incidence of fall-related and hip fracture hospitalisations among Victorians aged 65 years and older overall and by age, gender, country of birth, socio-economic status (SES) and location of the event (home, residential care institution, etc.) over the 11-year period 1998/1999 to 2008/2009. Annual counts and age-standardised rates for fall-related hospitalisations among people aged 65 years and older were estimated using Victorian hospital admissions data. The statistical significance of changes in trends over time were analysed using a log-linear regression model of the rate data assuming a Poisson distribution of cases. Although the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations increased significantly by 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9% to 18%) in Victoria, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased from 600/100,000 in 1998/1999 to 467/100,000 in 2008/2009 - an estimated overall reduction of 25% (95% CI, -29% to -22%). By contrast, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations for fractures at other body sites either increased significantly or showed no significant change. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in both males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in both Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people but not in people living in residential care facilities. Despite the downward trend in the age-standardised incidence of

  16. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  17. THE IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. M. Din

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015 for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015 for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 – 1993 and 32 years (1984 – 2015 tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  18. Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of 13 cm thickness. Fall descent motions and impact postures were examined by a three-dimensional analyzer. The maximum ground force reaction, velocity of the greater trochanter at impact, and activity of quadriceps and gluteus medius were measured. In all trials of lateral and posterolateral falls, but not of posterior falls, the subjects hit their greater trochanter directly on the mattress. The impact forces were between 2,000 N and 4,000 N. Posterolateral falls showed significantly higher velocity at impact than did posterior falls. The height and the lower limb length exhibited positive correlations with the impact force in all directions of fall. In the lateral fall, there was a positive correlation between the activity of quadriceps and the impact force. In view of the impact point, force, and velocity, the posterolateral fall seemed to carry the highest risk of hip fracture.

  19. Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A; Leorri, Eduardo

    2016-12-08

    The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches.

  20. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  1. The coupling of bay hydrodynamics with sediment supply and micro-tidal wetland stability under high rates of relative sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Xu, K.; Restreppo, G. A.; Bentley, S. J.; Meng, X.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Due to global sea level rise, local subsidence and sediment deficit, the Mississippi River (MR) deltaic plain has lost a total of 25% of coastal Louisiana's wetlands during the last century, leading to huge losses of ecological services, economic and social crises. Ecosystem-based restoration strategies which rely on coastal system processes and feedbacks are urgently needed. Understanding linkages between estuarine and coastal systems and the adjacent marshlands will help the designing strategies. To investigate bay hydrodynamics and its impacts on the adjacent micro-tidal wetland stability, hourly measurements of wave, tidal current, and benthic sediment concentration in summer, winter, and spring of 2015-2016 were conducted in Fourleague Bay, Louisiana, USA. The bay-marsh system has been stable for almost 80 years under high relative sea level rising rate, which is 11 km southeast of the Atchafalaya River mouth, with a water depth of 1-3 m. High-temporal resolution data indicate that benthic sediment resuspension is mainly caused by wind-driven waves with a dominant periodicity of 4.8 d. The sediment flux reaches 28 g·m-1·s-1 per unit depth in cm during the events. Net sediment transport is northwestward in summer, and southeastward in winter and spring. Sediment flux available for surrounding marsh varies from 0-500 g·m-1·s-1. An optimal inundation depth of 50 cm is estimated by the equilibrium wetland elevation change model under high relative sea level rising rate of 1.57 cm·yr-1. Seasonal variations of river discharge and wind direction (particularly speeds >3 m·s-1) greatly impact potential sediment contribution from bay to the surrounding wetlands. Three sediment transport regimes are concluded based on the seasonal variations of river discharge and wind direction: the `bypassing' season, the resuspension-accumulation season, and the combined `bypassing' and resuspension-accumulation season. The bay hydrodynamic processes and their impacts on the

  2. Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J; Price, René M; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B; Calafat, Francisco M; Dangendorf, Sönke

    2014-04-14

    There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

  3. Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamisiea, Mark E; Hughes, Chris W; Williams, Simon D P; Bingley, Richard M

    2014-09-28

    The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  4. Possible Evidence of Multiple Sea Level Oscillations in the Seychelles During the Last Interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A. L.; Vyverberg, K.; Webster, J.; Dechnik, B.; Zwartz, D.; Lambeck, K.

    2013-12-01

    In search of a eustatic sea level signal on glacial-interglacial timescales, the Seychelles ranks as one of the best places on the planet to study. Owing to its far-field location with respect to the former margins of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, glacio-hydro-isostatic models predict that relative sea level in the Seychelles should lie within a few meters of the globally averaged eustatic signal during interglacial periods. We have surveyed and dated fossil coral reefs from the last interglacial period to determine the magnitude of peak sea level and to assess sedimentologic evidence of potential sea level oscillations. Numerous outcrops we studied in detail exhibit a stratigraphic sequence comprised of in situ coralgal framework at the base, capped by thick coralline algae crusts, and overlain by coral rubble deposits. We also observed a succession of three stacked coralgal reefs within a single outcrop, separated by hardgrounds that have been bored by molluscs. In general, the succession within each reef unit consists of interlayered corals and crusts of coralline algae-vermetid gastropods-encrusting foraminifera. The lower two reef units are capped by a well-cemented 5 to 10 cm thick carbonate mud layer that is heavily bored by molluscs. These two surfaces may represent exposure surfaces during brief sea level oscillations, where sea level fell and exposed the top of the reef sequence, which was subsequently bored when sea level rose again and reef growth resumed. The elevations of the corals in each reef unit provide minimum elevations of sea level during each of the three pulses of sea level highstands during the last interglacial period. Significantly, since many of these corals are capped by thick coralline algae layers that contain vermetid gastropods and encrusting foraminifera that are indicative of the intertidal zone, there is strong evidence that these corals grew in extremely shallow water, providing a robust indication of sea level position. These

  5. Generalized Cauchy model of sea level fluctuations with long-range dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Li, Jia-Yue

    2017-10-01

    This article suggests the contributions with two highlights. One is to propose a novel model of sea level fluctuations (sea level for short), which is called the generalized Cauchy (GC) process. It provides a new outlook for the description of local and global behaviors of sea level from a view of fractal in that the fractal dimension D that measures the local behavior of sea level and the Hurst parameter H which characterizes the global behavior of sea level are independent of each other. The other is to show that sea level appears multi-fractal in both spatial and time. Such a meaning of multi-fractal is new in the sense that a pair of fractal parameters (D, H) of sea level is varying with measurement sites and time. This research exhibits that the ranges of D and H of sea level, in general, are 1 ≤ D sea level, we shall show that H > 0 . 96 for all data records at all measurement sites, implying that strong LRD may be a general phenomenon of sea level. On the other side, regarding with the local behavior, we will reveal that there appears D = 1 or D ≈ 1 for data records at a few stations and at some time, but D > 0 . 96 at most stations and at most time, meaning that sea level may appear highly local irregularity more frequently than weak local one.

  6. Quantification of climatic feedbacks on the Caspian Sea level variability and impacts from the Caspian Sea on the large-scale atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arpe, Klaus; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Liu, Xin-Yu; Leroy, Suzanne A. G.

    2018-05-01

    With a fall of the Caspian Sea level (CSL), its size gets smaller and therefore the total evaporation over the sea is reduced. With a reduced evaporation from the sea, the fall of the CSL is weakened. This creates a negative feedback as less evaporation leads to less water losses of the Caspian Sea (CS). On the other hand, less evaporation reduces the water in the atmosphere, which may lead to less precipitation in the catchment area of the CS. The two opposite feedbacks are estimated by using an atmospheric climate model coupled with an ocean model only for the CS with different CS sizes while keeping all other forcings like oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and leaf area index the same from a global climate simulation. The investigation is concentrated on the medieval period because at that time the CSL changed dramatically from about - 30 to - 19 m below the mean ocean sea level, partly man-made. Models used for simulating the last millennium are not able to change the size of the CS dynamically so far. When results from such simulations are used to investigate the CSL variability and its causes, the present study should help to parameterize its feedbacks. A first assumption that the total evaporation from the CS will vary with the size of the CS (number of grid points representing the sea) is generally confirmed with the model simulations. The decrease of grid points from 15 to 14, 10, 8 or 7 leads to a decrease of evaporation to 96, 77, 70 and 54%. The lower decrease than initially expected from the number of grid points (93, 67, 53 and 47%) is probably due to the fact that there would also be some evaporation at grid points that run dry with a lower CSL but a cooling of the CS SST with increasing CS size in summer may be more important. The reduction of evaporation over the CS means more water for the budget of the whole catchment of the CS (an increase of the CSL) but from the gain through reduced evaporation over the CS, only 70% is found to remain in

  7. Downscaling of sea level and fluxes in the Malacca and Singapore Straits using A2 scenario projections of AR4 GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Koshebutsky, Volodymyr; Maderich, Vladimir; Thompson, Bijoy

    2013-04-01

    2011-2099 suggest that linear trends of sea level rise in Singapore Strait are 5.4 and 6.1 mm/year, respectively. These values fall in the range of global estimates of 3.0-8.5 mm/year. Mean sea level rise is expected around 0.43 m (ROMS-ECHAM5) and 0.47 m (ROMS-CCSM3) in 2099 relative to mean sea level in 2011. These values are greater than median estimation of global sea rise 0.32 under scenario A2. Mean discharge through Singapore Strait for scenario A2 during 2011 to 2099 is projected to be 0.062 Sv for ROMS-ECHAM5 and 0.11 Sv for ROMS-CCSM3. These projections are comparable to the discharges during 1961-1990 (0.065 and 0.11 Sv, respectively). The linear trend in discharges for the period 2011-2099 is relatively small with statistical confidence level being less than 95%. An important feature computationally discovered is the transient reversal of flow in the Singapore Strait during southwest monsoon. In general, the reversals of flow in ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 are observed respectively to occur 1/3 and 1/5 of the whole period.

  8. The Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; Naik, H.; Narvekar, P.V.

    high chI are also encountered offshore, presumably associated with the mesoscale features such as filaments and eddies. In conformity with the satellite data, elevated chI levels persist~lOOOkmfrom the Omani coast. During the Sl, chI levels are quite... is consumed rapidly for the degradation of copious amounts of organic matter produced within the Arabian Sea itself. Consequently, 02 levels fall very close to zero while nutrients accumulate in high concentrations within a zone that extends from the base...

  9. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-18

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  10. Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

  11. Fluvial Responses to Holocene sea Level Variations Along the Macdonald River, New South Wales, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustomji, P.; Chappell, J.; Olley, J.

    2003-12-01

    some 35km of river, mostly upstream of the tidal limit, and meanders were cut off. The bed aggraded by 3m and the point of intersection of the river bed with MSL shifted 7.6km down valley. The channel has contracted since these floods and is building a new floodplain below the post-1500 BP inset floodplain. The late Holocene fluvial history of the Macdonald River is one of rapid adjustment to falling base level. The formation of the major fluvial landforms of the valley coinciding with late Holocene sea level at +1 to +2m, followed by subsequent abandonment of this surface with associated bed incision and channel straightening, may be a common phenomenon along river systems of eastern Australia. If so it may explain the propensity for instability of rivers along the New South Wales coast.

  12. Radioactivity levels in some sediment samples from Red Sea and Baltic Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahel Din, K.; Vesterbacka, P.

    2012-01-01

    Levels of 226, 228 Ra, 232 Th, 210 Pb, 210 Po and 40 K in sediments from four monitoring areas, El Hamraween and Ras El Behar (Red Sea (Egypt)) and LL3A and JML (Baltic Sea (Finland)), have been investigated using alpha and gamma spectrometry. The average activity concentrations were 238±4 Bq kg -1 ( 226 Ra), 215±11 Bq kg -1 ( 210 Pb) and 311±18 Bq kg -1 ( 210 Po) for El Hamraween area. In Ras El Behar area, the corresponding values were 16±0.4, 18±1 and 20±5 Bq kg -1 , respectively. The activity concentrations for 226 Ra, 210 Pb and 210 Po (uranium series) in El Hamraween bottom sediment are much high compared with those in Ras El Behar area, which indicates the enhanced levels due to the activities of phosphate mining and shipment operations in El Hamraween area. Excluding the influence of phosphate mining activities, it can be concluded that the levels of radioactivity in Baltic Sea sediments are higher than those in Red Sea sediments. (authors)

  13. Preventive Effects of Safety Helmets on Traumatic Brain Injury after Work-Related Falls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Chul Kim

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Work-related traumatic brain injury (TBI caused by falls is a catastrophic event that leads to disabilities and high socio-medical costs. This study aimed to measure the magnitude of the preventive effect of safety helmets on clinical outcomes and to compare the effect across different heights of fall. Methods: We collected a nationwide, prospective database of work-related injury patients who visited the 10 emergency departments between July 2010 and October 2012. All of the adult patients who experienced work-related fall injuries were eligible, excluding cases with unknown safety helmet use and height of fall. Primary and secondary endpoints were intracranial injury and in-hospital mortality. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (AORs of safety helmet use and height of fall for study outcomes, and adjusted for any potential confounders. Results: A total of 1298 patients who suffered from work-related fall injuries were enrolled. The industrial or construction area was the most common place of fall injury occurrence, and 45.0% were wearing safety helmets at the time of fall injuries. The safety helmet group was less likely to have intracranial injury comparing with the no safety helmet group (the adjusted odds ratios (ORs (95% confidence interval (CI: 0.42 (0.24–0.73, however, there was no statistical difference of in-hospital mortality between two groups (the adjusted ORs (95% CI: 0.83 (0.34–2.03. In the interaction analysis, preventive effects of safety helmet on intracranial injury were significant within 4 m height of fall. Conclusions: A safety helmet is associated with prevention of intracranial injury resulting from work-related fall and the effect is preserved within 4 m height of fall. Therefore, wearing a safety helmet can be an intervention for protecting fall-related intracranial injury in the workplace.

  14. Astronomical Pacing of Relative Sea Level through OAE2 from the Expanded SH#1 Core, Southern Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M. M.; Sageman, B. B.; Oakes, R. L.; Bralower, T. J.; Parker, A. L.; Leckie, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Proximal marine strata of the North American Western Interior Basin (WIB) preserve a rich record of faunal turnover linked to Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2 - 94 Ma), a pronounced Late Cretaceous carbon cycle perturbation interpreted to reflect global warming and possible ocean acidification. To develop a more robust synthesis of paleobiologic and geochemical datasets spanning this major Earth-life transition, we drilled a 131-meter core (SH#1) on the Kaiparowits Plateau of southern Utah, recovering the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary (CTB) interval of the Tropic Shale. A 17.5-meter positive excursion in high-resolution bulk carbon isotope chemostratigraphy (δ13Corg) of SH#1 characterizes the most expanded and detailed record of OAE2 recovered from the WIB. Additionally, we detect statistically significant evidence for astronomical cycles in a companion δ13Ccarb dataset, using advanced spectral techniques (evolutive average spectral misfit). Bandpass filtering and tracing of the short eccentricity cycle (97 ka) permit development of a floating astronomical time scale (ATS) for the CTB interval. The presence of radioisotopic dates within the time series provides an independent check on astrochronologic interpretations. We attribute some depleted δ13Ccarb values in SH#1, which cyclically punctuate the OAE2 excursion, to preferential carbonate diagenesis driven by periodic sea level oscillations. Accordingly, major flooding surfaces in SH#1 correlate well to an existing sequence stratigraphic framework from shoreface facies of the Markagunt Plateau ( 100 km west). Comparing the ATS and sequence stratigraphic surfaces in SH#1, we observe that stable eccentricity cycles (405 ka) pace stratigraphic sequences and associated saw-toothed trends in sedimentation rate estimates through OAE2. Furthermore, short eccentricity cycles pace nested parasequences. These results confirm astronomical and, therefore, climatic pacing of relative sea level trends during OAE2 in the WIB. The

  15. Palaeoenvironments and changes in relative sea level during the last interglaciation at Langelandselv, Jameson Land, East Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vosgerau, H.; Funder, Svend Visby; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Coastal cliffs and stream cut sections at Langelandselv on Jameson Land show a 22 m thick sedimentary succession reflecting the development of shallow marine and fluvial environments during the last interglaciation. The shallow marine sediments were deposited in upper shoreface, back......-barrier, and delta environments during a rise in the relative sea level from 0 to 18 m. The interglacial succession ends with glaciotectonically dislocated fluvial sand, and is capped by alternating beds of lodgement till and fluvial sand, deposited during the Early Weichselian. The age is determined...

  16. Same-level fall injuries in US workplaces by age group, gender, and industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kenneth A; Fisher, Gwenith G; Barón, Anna E; Tompa, Emile; Stallones, Lorann; DiGuiseppi, Carolyn

    2018-02-01

    As the workforce ages, occupational injuries from falls on the same level will increase. Some industries may be more affected than others. We conducted a cross-sectional study using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate same-level fall injury incidence rates by age group, gender, and industry for four sectors: 1) healthcare and social assistance; 2) manufacturing; 3) retail; and 4) transportation and warehousing. We calculated rate ratios and rate differences by age group and gender. Same-level fall injury incidence rates increase with age in all four sectors. However, patterns of rate ratios and rate differences vary by age group, gender, and industry. Younger workers, men, and manufacturing workers generally have lower rates. Variation in incidence rates suggests there are unrealized opportunities to prevent same-level fall injuries. Interventions should be evaluated for their effectiveness at reducing injuries, avoiding gender- or age-discrimination and improving work ability. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Is impaired control of reactive stepping related to falls during inpatient stroke rehabilitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Avril; Inness, Elizabeth L; Wong, Jennifer S; Fraser, Julia E; McIlroy, William E

    2013-01-01

    Individuals with stroke fall more often than age-matched controls. Although many focus on the multifactorial nature of falls, the fundamental problem is likely the ability for an individual to generate reactions to recover from a loss of balance. Stepping reactions to recover balance are particularly important to balance recovery, and individuals with stroke have difficulty executing these responses to prevent a fall following a loss of balance. The purpose of this study is to determine if characteristics of balance recovery steps are related to falls during inpatient stroke rehabilitation. We conducted a retrospective review of individuals with stroke attending inpatient rehabilitation (n = 136). Details of falls experienced during inpatient rehabilitation were obtained from incident reports, nursing notes, and patient interviews. Stepping reactions were evoked using a "release-from-lean" postural perturbation. Poisson regression was used to determine characteristics of stepping reactions that were related to increased fall frequency relative to length of stay. In all, 20 individuals experienced 29 falls during inpatient rehabilitation. The characteristics of stepping reactions significantly related to increased fall rates were increased frequency of external assistance to prevent a fall to the floor, increased frequency of no-step responses, increased frequency of step responses with inadequate foot clearance, and delayed time to initiate stepping responses. Impaired control of balance recovery steps is related to increased fall rates during inpatient stroke rehabilitation. This study informs the specific features of stepping reactions that can be targeted with physiotherapy intervention during inpatient rehabilitation to improve dynamic stability control and potentially prevent falls.

  18. Estimation of Sea Level variations with GPS/GLONASS-Reflectometry Technique: Case Study at Stationary Oceanographic Platform in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbatov, G. A.; Padokhin, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    In the present work we study GNSS - reflectometry methods for estimation of sea level variations using a single GNSS-receiver, which are based on the multipath propagation effects (interference pattern in SNR of GNSS signals at small elevation angles) caused by the reflection of navigational signals from the sea surface. The measurements were carried out in the coastal zone of Black Sea at the Stationary Oceanographic Platform during one-week campaign in the summer 2017. GPS/GLONASS signals at two working frequencies of both systems were used to study sea level variations which almost doubled the amount of observations compared to GPS-only tide gauge. Moreover all the measurements were conducted with 4-antenna GNSS receiver providing the opportunity for different orientations of antennas including zenith and nadir looking ones as well as two horizontally oriented ones at different azimuths. As the reference we used data from co-located wire wave gauge which showed good correspondence of both datasets. Though tidal effects are not so pronounced for the Black Sea, the described experimental setup allowed to study the effects of sea surface roughness, driven by meteorological conditions (e.g. wind waves), as well as antenna directivity pattern effects on the observed interference patterns of GPS/GLONASS L1/L2 signals (relation of the main spectral peak to the noise power) and the quality of sea level estimations.

  19. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

  20. Interannual variation of rare earth element abundances in corals from northern coast of the South China Sea and its relation with sea-level change and human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yajing; Peng, Z.; Wei, G.; Chen, T.; Sun, W.; He, J.; Liu, Gaisheng; Chou, C.-L.; Shen, C.-C.

    2011-01-01

    Here we present interannual rare earth element (REE) records spanning the last two decades of the 20th century in two living Porites corals, collected from Longwan Bay, close to the estuarine zones off Wanquan River of Hainan Island and Hong Kong off the Pearl River Delta of Guangdong Province in the northern South China Sea. The results show that both coral REE contents (0.5-40 ng g-1 in Longwan Bay and 2-250 ng g-1 in Hong Kong for La-Lu) are characterized with a declining trend, which are significantly negative correlated with regional sea-level rise (9.4 mm a-1 from 1981 to 1996 in Longwan Bay, 13.7 mm a-1 from 1991 to 2001 in Hong Kong). The REE features are proposed to be resulted from seawater intrusion into the estuaries in response to contemporary sea-level rise. However, the tendency for the coral Er/Nd time series at Hong Kong site is absent and there is no significant relation between Er/Nd and total REEs as found for the coral at Longwan Bay site. The observations are likely attributed to changes of the water discharge and sediment load of Pearl River, which have been significantly affected by intense human activities, such as the construction of dams/reservoirs and riverbed sediment mining, in past decades. The riverine sediment load/discharge ratio of the Pearl River decreased sharply with a rate of 0.02 kg m-3 a-1, which could make significant contribution to the declining trend of coral REE. We propose that coastal corals in Longwan Bay and similar unexplored sites with little influences of river discharge and anthropogenic disruption are ideal candidates to investigate the influence of sea-level change on seawater/coral REE. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Endogenous hormones, muscle strength, and risk of fall-related fractures in older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipilä, Sarianna; Heikkinen, Eino; Cheng, Sulin; Suominen, Harri; Saari, Päivi; Kovanen, Vuokko; Alén, Markku; Rantanen, Taina

    2006-01-01

    Among older people, fracture-causing fall often leads to health deterioration. The role of endogenous hormone status and muscle strength on fall-related fracture risk is unclear. This study investigates if, after adjustment for bone density, endogenous hormones and muscle strength would predict fall-related limb fracture incidence in older community-dwelling women followed-up over 10 years. As a part of a prospective population-based study, 187 75-year-old women were investigated. Serum estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate concentrations were analyzed, and isometric muscle strength and bone mineral density were assessed. Fall-related limb fractures were gathered from patient records. Serum estradiol concentration was a significant predictor of fall-related limb fractures. Women with serum estradiol concentrations less than 0.022 nmol/L had a 3-fold risk (relative risk 3.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-7.36), and women with estradiol concentrations between 0.022 and 0.066 nmol/L doubled the risk (relative risk 2.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-5.19) of fall-related limb fracture compared to the women with estradiol concentrations ()above 0.066 nmol/L. Adjustment for muscle strength and bone mineral density did not materially change the risk estimates. High muscle strength was associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures. This study showed that in 75-year-old women higher serum estradiol concentration and greater muscle strength were independently associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures even after adjustment for bone density. Our results suggest that hormonal status and muscle strength have their own separate mechanisms protecting from fall-related fractures. This finding is of importance in developing preventive strategies, but calls for further study.

  2. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined

  3. Modelling regional sea-level changes in recent past and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level change is one of the most important consequences of a warming climate, affecting many densely populated coastal communities. To improve coastal management and the planning of flood defences, information on the future development of sea-level rise is needed. However, sea-level rise is not

  4. Knickpoint formation and landscape response following coastal cliff retreat at last-interglacial sea-level highstand: Kaua';i, Hawai';i (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, M. P.; Mackey, B. H.; Farley, K. A.; Scheingross, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    The upstream propagation of knickpoints is an important mechanism for channel incision and communicates changes in climate, sea level and tectonics throughout a landscape. Here, we use cosmogenic 3He exposure dating to document the retreat rate of a waterfall in Ka'ula'ula Valley, Kaua';i, Hawai';i, an often-used site for knickpoint-erosion modeling. Exposure ages of terraces are oldest near the coast (120 ka) and systematically decrease with upstream distance towards the waterfall (waterfall migrated 4 km over the past 120 ka at an average rate of 33 mm/yr. Upstream of the knickpoint, cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in channel are approximately uniform and indicate steady-state vertical erosion at a rate of ~0.03 mm/yr. Field observations and topographic analyses suggest that waterfall retreat is dominated by block toppling, with sediment transport below the waterfall actively occurring by debris flows. Knickpoint initiation was previously attributed to a submarine landslide ca. 4 Ma; however, our dating results, bathymetric analysis, and landscape-evolution modeling support knickpoint generation by wave-induced seacliff erosion during the last interglacial sea-level high stand. We illustrate that knickpoint generation during sea-level high stands, as opposed to the typical case of sea-level fall, is an important relief-generating mechanism on steep coasts with stable or subsiding coasts, and likely drives transient pulses of significant source-to-sink sediment flux.

  5. Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis; Hausse actuelle du niveau de la mer: synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W. [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Observatoire Midi-Pyrenees, 31 - Toulouse (France); Lombard, A. [CNES, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-11-15

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)

  6. The sleep of elite athletes at sea level and high altitude: a comparison of sea-level natives and high-altitude natives (ISA3600).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Gregory D; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Bourdon, Pitre C; Soria, Rudy; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Sargent, Charli

    2013-12-01

    Altitude exposure causes acute sleep disruption in non-athletes, but little is known about its effects in elite athletes. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of altitude on two groups of elite athletes, that is, sea-level natives and high-altitude natives. Sea-level natives were members of the Australian under-17 soccer team (n=14). High-altitude natives were members of a Bolivian under-20 club team (n=12). Teams participated in an 18-day (19 nights) training camp in Bolivia, with 6 nights at near sea level in Santa Cruz (430 m) and 13 nights at high altitude in La Paz (3600 m). Sleep was assessed on every day/night using activity monitors. The Australians' sleep was shorter, and of poorer quality, on the first night at altitude compared with sea level. Sleep quality returned to normal by the end of the first week at altitude, but sleep quantity had still not stabilised at its normal level after 2 weeks. The quantity and quality of sleep obtained by the Bolivians was similar, or greater, on all nights at altitude compared with sea level. The Australians tended to obtain more sleep than the Bolivians at sea level and altitude, but the quality of the Bolivians' sleep tended to be better than that of the Australians at altitude. Exposure to high altitude causes acute and chronic disruption to the sleep of elite athletes who are sea-level natives, but it does not affect the sleep of elite athletes who are high-altitude natives.

  7. Course of sea-level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlowicz, Michael

    This summer, the Environment and Climate Program of the European Union will offer an advanced study course on “sea-level changes on micro to macro timescales: measurements, modeling, interpretation, and application.” The short course will be taught from July 1-12 at the Aesclepon Conference Center on the island of Kos, Greece.The interdisciplinary course is designed to bring together at least 40 students from different disciplines in an attempt to share and disseminate fundamental ideas about sea level change, focusing particularly on changes influenced by anthropogenic factors. Participants will be selected by a scientific panel; the European Union will conduct the course free of charge and will provide free lodging. Students must pay for their own travel expenses and food.

  8. Mechanisms of long-term mean sea level variability in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Calafat, Francisco; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Richter, Kristin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    We examine mean sea level (MSL) variations in the North Sea on timescales ranging from months to decades under the consideration of different forcing factors since the late 19th century. We use multiple linear regression models, which are validated for the second half of the 20th century against the output of a state-of-the-art tide+surge model (HAMSOM), to determine the barotropic response of the ocean to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. We demonstrate that local atmospheric forcing mainly triggers MSL variability on timescales up to a few years, with the inverted barometric effect dominating the variability along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind (piling up the water along the coast) controlling the MSL variability in the south from Belgium up to Denmark. However, in addition to the large inter-annual sea level variability there is also a considerable fraction of decadal scale variability. We show that on decadal timescales MSL variability in the North Sea mainly reflects steric changes, which are mostly remotely forced. A spatial correlation analysis of altimetry observations and baroclinic ocean model outputs suggests evidence for a coherent signal extending from the Norwegian shelf down to the Canary Islands. This supports the theory of longshore wind forcing along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic causing coastally trapped waves to propagate along the continental slope. With a combination of oceanographic and meteorological measurements we demonstrate that ~80% of the decadal sea level variability in the North Sea can be explained as response of the ocean to longshore wind forcing, including boundary wave propagation in the Northeast Atlantic. These findings have important implications for (i) detecting significant accelerations in North Sea MSL, (ii) the conceptual set up of regional ocean models in terms of resolution and boundary conditions, and (iii) the development of adequate and realistic regional climate change projections.

  9. Factors related to falls among community dwelling elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhirunyaratn, Piyathida; Prasomrak, Prasert; Jindawong, Bangonsri

    2013-09-01

    Falls among the elderly can lead to disability, hospitalization and premature death. This study aimed to determine the factors related to falls among community dwelling elderly. This case-control study was conducted at the Samlium Primary Care Unit (SPCU), Khon Kaen, Thailand. Cases were elderly individuals who had fallen within the previous six months and controls were elderly who had not fallen during that same time period. Subjects were taken from elderly persons registered at the SPCU. The sample size was calculated to be 111 cases and 222 controls. Face to face interviews were conducted with subjects between May and June, 2011. The response rate was 100%. On bivariate analysis, the statistically significant factors related to falls were: regular medication use, co-morbidities, mobility, depression, cluttered rooms, slippery floors, unsupported toilets (without a hand rail), sufficient exercise, rapid posture change and wearing slippers. When controlling for others significant factors, multiple logistic regression revealed significant factors were: regular medication use (AOR: 2.22; 95%CI: 1.19 - 4.12), depression (AOR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.03 - 2.99), sufficient exercise (AOR: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.19 - 0.58) and wearing slippery shoes (AOR: 2.31; 95% CI: 1.24 - 4.29). Interventions need to be considered to modify these significant factors associated with falls and education should be provided to these at risk.

  10. Past sea level changes along the western continental margins of India: Evidences from morphology of the sea bed

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vora, K.H.

    -wide have been affected to a considerable extent by Pleistocene glaciations (Emery, 1968). The rate of sea-level rise has varied frequently and the sea-level still stands produced wave-cut terraces and platforms. In other words, the surface of a terrace... Merh (1992) while reviewing Quaternary sea level changes along India’s coasts observed that the Last Glacial Stage was a period of regression when the sea level went down to almost -150 m. With the advent of the Holocene, the sea started rising...

  11. Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

    2011-01-01

    Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

  12. The burden of hospitalised fall-related injury in community-dwelling older people in Victoria: a database study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Trang; Day, Lesley; Finch, Caroline F

    2014-04-01

    To estimate the burden of hospitalised fall-related injury in community-dwelling older people in Victoria. We analysed fall-related, person-identifying hospital discharge data and patient-level hospital treatment costs for community-dwelling older people aged 65+ years from Victoria between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2008, inclusive. Key outcomes of interest were length of stay (LOS)/episode, cumulative LOS (CLOS)/patient and inpatient costs. The burden of hospitalised fall-related injury in community-dwelling older people aged 65+ years in Victoria was 284,781 hospital bed days in 2005-06, rising to 310,031 hospital bed days in 2007-08. Seventy-one per cent of episodes were multiday. One in 15 acute care episodes was a high LOS outlier and 14% of patients had ≥1 episode classified as high LOS outlier. The median CLOS/patient was nine days (interquartile range 2-27). The annual costs of inpatient care, in June 2009 prices, for fall-related injury in community-dwelling people aged 65+ years in Victoria rose from $213 million in 2005-06 to $237 million in 2007-08. The burden of hospitalised fall-related injury in community-dwelling older women, people aged 85+ years and those with comorbidity was considerable. The burden of hospitalised fall-related injury in community-dwelling older people aged 65+ years in Victoria is significantly more than previously projected. Importantly, this study identifies that women, patients with comorbidity and those aged 85+ years account for a considerable proportion of this burden. A corresponding increase in falls prevention effort is required to ensure that the burden is properly addressed. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  13. Sea-level trend in the South China Sea observed from 20 years of along-track satellite altimetric data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2014-01-01

    The sea-level trend in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated based on 20 years of along-track data from TOPEX and Jason-1/2 satellite altimetry. The average sea-level rise over all the regions in the study area is observed to have a rate of 5.1 ± 0.8 mm year-1 for the period from 1993 to 2012....... The steric sea level contributes 45% to the observed sea-level trend. These results are consistent with previous studies. In addition, the results demonstrate that the maximum sea-level rise rate of 8.4 mm year-1 is occurring off the east coast of Vietnam and eastern part of SCS. During 2010-2011, the La...... Niña event was highly correlated with the dramatic sea-level rise in the SCS; La Niña events were also associated with the maximum rate of sea rise off the east coast of Vietnam, which occurred during 1993 and 2012. We also evaluated the trends in the geophysical (e.g. dynamical atmospheric correction...

  14. Revisiting global mean sea level budget closure : Preliminary results from an integrative study within ESA's Climate Change Initiative -Sea level Budget Closure-Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palanisamy, H.; Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    The global mean sea level budget is revisited over two time periods: the entire altimetry era, 1993-2015 and the Argo/GRACE era, 2003-2015 using the version '0' of sea level components estimated by the SLBC-CCI teams. The SLBC-CCI is an European Space Agency's project on sea level budget closure using CCI products. Over the entire altimetry era, the sea level budget was performed as the sum of steric and mass components that include contributions from total land water storage, glaciers, ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and total water vapor content. Over the Argo/GRACE era, it was performed as the sum of steric and GRACE based ocean mass. Preliminary budget analysis performed over the altimetry era (1993-2015) results in a trend value of 2.83 mm/yr. On comparison with the observed altimetry-based global mean sea level trend over the same period (3.03 ± 0.5 mm/yr), we obtain a residual of 0.2 mm/yr. In spite of a residual of 0.2 mm/yr, the sea level budget result obtained over the altimetry era is very promising as this has been performed using the version '0' of the sea level components. Furthermore, uncertainties are not yet included in this study as uncertainty estimation for each sea level component is currently underway. Over the Argo/GRACE era (2003-2015), the trend estimated from the sum of steric and GRACE ocean mass amounts to 2.63 mm/yr while that observed by satellite altimetry is 3.37 mm/yr, thereby leaving a residual of 0.7 mm/yr. Here an ensemble GRACE ocean mass data (mean of various available GRACE ocean mass data) was used for the estimation. Using individual GRACE data results in a residual range of 0.5 mm/yr -1.1 mm/yr. Investigations are under way to determine the cause of the vast difference between the observed sea level and the sea level obtained from steric and GRACE ocean mass. One main suspect is the impact of GRACE data gaps on sea level budget analysis due to lack of GRACE data over several months since 2011. The current action plan

  15. Circumstances of falls and falls-related injuries in a cohort of older patients following hospital discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hill AM

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Anne-Marie Hill,1 Tammy Hoffmann,2,3 Terry P Haines4,51School of Physiotherapy, Institute for Health Research, The University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, WA, 2Centre for Research in Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD, 3School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, The University of Queensland, 4School of Primary Health Care, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 5Allied Health Research Unit, Kingston Centre, Southern Health, Clayton, VIC, AustraliaBackground: Older people are at increased risk of falls after hospital discharge. This study aimed to describe the circumstances of falls in the six months after hospital discharge and to identify factors associated with the time and location of these falls.Methods: Participants in this randomized controlled study comprised fallers (n = 138 who were part of a prospective observational cohort (n = 343 nested within a randomized controlled trial (n = 1206. The study tested patient education on falls prevention in hospital compared with usual care in older patients who were discharged from hospital and followed for six months after hospital discharge. The outcome measures were number of falls, falls-related injuries, and the circumstances of the falls, measured by use of a diary and a monthly telephone call to each participant.Results: Participants (mean age 80.3 ± 8.7 years reported 276 falls, of which 150 (54.3% were injurious. Of the 255 falls for which there were data available about circumstances, 190 (74.5% occurred indoors and 65 (25.5% occurred in the external home environment or wider community. The most frequent time reported for falls was the morning (between 6 am and 10 am when 79 (28.6% falls, including 49 (32.7% injurious falls, occurred. The most frequently reported location for falls (n = 80, 29.0%, including injurious falls (n = 42, 28.0%, was the bedroom. Factors associated with falling in the bedroom included

  16. Morphological changes within Florida Bay as a result of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    Data from Florida Bay indicates that from 10,000 year BP to 6000 BP, the rate of sea level rise averaged about 10 mm/yr. The rate slowed at the end of this period flooding the shallow shelves surrounding the reef platforms of the western Atlantic. The relative flat South Florida shelf, because of its slight tilt to the southwest is an ideal local to assess the effects of this flooding. From 6000 BP to the present, numerous banks were formed within Florida Bay. A morphological model of bank formation based on the sea level oscillations was constructed from analysis of over 120 cores. These cores record sedimentological changes which are correlated to climatic events. In the central bay, the sediment accumulation was controlled by variations in rate of progressive sea-level rise. The Key West sea-level record shows that sea level has been rising incrementally over the last century. Between 1931 and 1950, sea level rose at a rate of 5 mm/yr. After 1950, it remained stable until 1971, when it again began to rise, but at a rate of 3 mm/yr. On the leeward side of mud banks, these variations resulted in shifts in sediment- accumulation rates, with accretion increasing during rising sea level and decreasing during stable periods. Between late 1970 and early 1972, a sharp jump in sea-level rise occurred that was approximately 10 cm higher than the preceding period. This jump coincided with a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a la Niña (negative ENSO), and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water driven northward into Florida Bay eroded banks along the northern coastline, increased sediment accumulation in the northern lakes, and increased accretion rates on the banks. In addition to the sedimentological variations in the central portion of the bay, there was significant changes along the northern fringe. Around 1950, the northern fringe of the bay morphed from a fresh water environment to a marine environment. As a result, carbonate production

  17. The sleep of elite athletes at sea level and high altitude: a comparison of sea-level natives and high-altitude natives (ISA3600)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Gregory D; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Bourdon, Pitre C; Soria, Rudy; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Sargent, Charli

    2013-01-01

    Background Altitude exposure causes acute sleep disruption in non-athletes, but little is known about its effects in elite athletes. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of altitude on two groups of elite athletes, that is, sea-level natives and high-altitude natives. Methods Sea-level natives were members of the Australian under-17 soccer team (n=14). High-altitude natives were members of a Bolivian under-20 club team (n=12). Teams participated in an 18-day (19 nights) training camp in Bolivia, with 6 nights at near sea level in Santa Cruz (430 m) and 13 nights at high altitude in La Paz (3600 m). Sleep was assessed on every day/night using activity monitors. Results The Australians’ sleep was shorter, and of poorer quality, on the first night at altitude compared with sea level. Sleep quality returned to normal by the end of the first week at altitude, but sleep quantity had still not stabilised at its normal level after 2 weeks. The quantity and quality of sleep obtained by the Bolivians was similar, or greater, on all nights at altitude compared with sea level. The Australians tended to obtain more sleep than the Bolivians at sea level and altitude, but the quality of the Bolivians’ sleep tended to be better than that of the Australians at altitude. Conclusions Exposure to high altitude causes acute and chronic disruption to the sleep of elite athletes who are sea-level natives, but it does not affect the sleep of elite athletes who are high-altitude natives. PMID:24282197

  18. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

    2015-07-01

    Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

  19. Identification of Transportation Infrastructure at Risk Due To Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence of Land In Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tewari, S.; Palmer, W.; Manning, F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency/intensity of storms, increase in precipitation and storm surges. The resilience of transportation infrastructure located in Louisiana's coastal zone, against storm surges and climatic sea-level rise is critical. The net change in sea-level is affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. There are many places in coastal Louisiana that have a high subsidence rate. The subsidence could be related to excess extraction activities of oil and water, natural and/or human induced compaction, and tectonic movement. Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking, including parts of the Gulf Coast. For example, coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years, which is about twice the global rate. Subsiding land in the Gulf area worsens the effects of relative sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding in cities, inhabited islands, and tidal wetlands. The research team is investigating the trends for sea-level rise and land subsidence in coastal region of Louisiana. The variability in storm surges and its potential implication on the transportation infrastructure in the region is the focus of the study. The spatial maps will be created for spatial trends. This is extremely useful in being prepared for long-term natural hazards. The results of this study will be helpful to LADOTD and infrastructure managers and officials who are tasked with resiliency planning and management. Research results will also directly benefit university researchers in the state, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority and LADOTD/LTRC through collaborative activity which will educate both professionals and the

  20. 60-year Nordic and arctic sea level reconstruction based on a reprocessed two decade altimetric sea level record and tide gauges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    Due to the sparsity and often poor quality of data, reconstructing Arctic sea level is highly challenging. We present a reconstruction of Arctic sea level covering 1950 to 2010, using the approaches from Church et al. (2004) and Ray and Douglas (2011). This involves decomposition of an altimetry...

  1. Sea level change along the Black Sea coast from satellite altimetry, tide gauge and GPS observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nevin B. Avsar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sea level change affects human living conditions, particularly ocean coasts. However, sea level change is still unclear along the Black Sea coast due to lack of in-situ measurements and low resolution satellite data. In this paper, sea level change along the Black Sea coast is investigated from joint satellite altimetry, tide gauge (TG and Global Positioning System (GPS observations. The linear trend and seasonal components of sea level change are estimated at 8 TG stations (Amasra, Igneada, Trabzon-II, Sinop, Sile, Poti, Tuapse, and Batumi located along the Black Sea coast, which are compared with Satellite Altimetry and GPS. At the tide gauge stations with long-term records such as Poti (about 21 years and Tuapse (about 19 years, the results obtained from the satellite altimetry and tide gauge observations show a remarkably good agreement. While some big differences are existed between Satellite Altimetry and TG at other stations, after adding vertical motion from GPS, correlation coefficients of the trend have been greatly improved from 0.37 to 0.99 at 3 co-located GPS and TG stations (Trabzon-II, Sinop and Sile.

  2. Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

    2004-11-01

    In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much

  3. Incidence of fall-related injuries in Iran: A population-based nationwide study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saadat, Soheil; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Ekhtiari, Yalda Soleiman; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Motevalian, Abbas; Amin-Esmaeili, Masoumeh; Sharifi, Vandad; Hajebi, Ahmad; Radgoodarzi, Reza; Hefazi, Mitra; Eslami, Vahid; Karimi, Hasti; Mohammad, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa

    2016-07-01

    Fall-related injuries are considered to be a leading cause of morbidity and disability worldwide. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of fall-related injuries and its determinants in Iran. A cross-sectional household survey of a representative sample of 15-64 years old Iranians was carried out in 2011. A three-stage cluster sampling design was used. Total of 1525 clusters were randomly selected. Six households in each cluster were randomly selected, and one member of each household was interviewed. Data on the demographics and history of fall-related injury were obtained using the previously validated and reliability tested Short Form Injury Questionnaire 7 (SFIQ7). In all, 7886 subjects responded to the survey. The incidence rate of all fall-related injuries was 59 (95%CI: 45-72) per 1000 person-year. The incidence rate of First Aid Fall-Related Injuries (FAFRIs) and Medical Attended Fall-Related Injuries (MAFRIs) were 30±5 and 28±12, respectively. Homes were the most common place of falls (52.5%). For all and MAFRIs, the most common activity leading to fall injury was walking (37.8% and 47.6%, respectively) whereas for FAFRIs was playing (31.9%). For all and FAFRIs, the most common description was as follows: upper limb as the injured organ (52.0% and 61.2%, respectively) and superficial wound as the most prevalent type of injury (39.0% and 61.8%, respectively). However, for MAFRIs, lower limb injuries (52.9%) and fracture (43.6%) were more pronounced. Risk factors for MAFRI were as follows: paid work activity (OR: 3.11; 95%CI: 2.07-4.67), playing (OR: 14.64; 95%CI: 6.34-33.80), walking (OR: 57.09; 95%CI: 28.95-112.59), driving (OR: 2.86; 95%CI: 1.23-6.63), and recreation activities (OR: 44.11; 95%CI: 14.04-138.54). Higher age and education were the other risk factors for MAFRI, as well as residing in rural areas. This study revealed considerable incidence of fall injuries in Iranian population especially in rural regions who need access to

  4. A study on Sea Level Change for Coast of Korean Peninsular from Global Warming and Its Influences I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, K.W.; Kim, J.H. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    cm with a median value of 48cm. The projected range of the sea level rise is 2.2{approx} 4.4 times higher than that of 20th century. The ocean thermal expansion leads the 21st century sea level rise. The melting of glacier also gives considerable contribution to the 21st sea level rise. The regional distribution of future sea level change will be quite complex because of the regional distribution of thermal expansion, heat transport into ocean interiors, ocean circulation changes by the change of density structure with temperature and salinity changes, horizontal heat transport changes due to the ocean circulation changes, wind field changes to climate change, etc. It is projected that the regional variation will be large compared to the global mean value. The state-of-the-art climate model predictions on the regional distribution of the 21st sea level change show little similarity between models except the Arctic Ocean and Antarctic Ocean. This implies the confidence of current climate model is low in the prediction of the regional distribution of sea level change. In order to investigate the sea level change on the neighboring seas of Korea, the sea level trends of the 65 PSMSL(Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) tide-station data located at the Korea, Japan, and China are calculated by a simple linear regression after a post-glacial rebound correction(Peltier, 2001). The mean sea level change is 1.63 mm/yr +2.15 mm/yr, which is in the rage of the IPCC assessment. The analysis of the 23 station at Korea reveals that the East Sea is in the low trend of 0.57 mm/yr than those of the South Sea(3.13mm/yr) and the West Sea(2.64 mm/yr) with an overall mean value of 2.31 mm/yr. However, it is quite questionable that the sea level trends with the tide gauge data on the neighboring seas of Korea relate to global warming because of the relatively short observation period and large spatial variability. In the satellite altimeter data (Topex/Poseidon and ERS), the sea level

  5. Solving the Sea-Level Equation in an Explicit Time Differencing Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemann, V.; Hagedoorn, J. M.; Thomas, M.

    2016-12-01

    In preparation of coupling the solid-earth to an ice-sheet compartment in an earth-system model, the dependency of initial topography on the ice-sheet history and viscosity structure has to be analysed. In this study, we discuss this dependency and how it influences the reconstruction of former sea level during a glacial cycle. The modelling is based on the VILMA code in which the field equations are solved in the time domain applying an explicit time-differencing scheme. The sea-level equation is solved simultaneously in the same explicit scheme as the viscoleastic field equations (Hagedoorn et al., 2007). With the assumption of only small changes, we neglect the iterative solution at each time step as suggested by e.g. Kendall et al. (2005). Nevertheless, the prediction of the initial paleo topography in case of moving coastlines remains to be iterated by repeated integration of the whole load history. The sensitivity study sketched at the beginning is accordingly motivated by the question if the iteration of the paleo topography can be replaced by a predefined one. This study is part of the German paleoclimate modelling initiative PalMod. Lit:Hagedoorn JM, Wolf D, Martinec Z, 2007. An estimate of global mean sea-level rise inferred from tide-gauge measurements using glacial-isostatic models consistent with the relative sea-level record. Pure appl. Geophys. 164: 791-818, doi:10.1007/s00024-007-0186-7Kendall RA, Mitrovica JX, Milne GA, 2005. On post-glacial sea level - II. Numerical formulation and comparative reesults on spherically symmetric models. Geophys. J. Int., 161: 679-706, doi:10.1111/j.365-246.X.2005.02553.x

  6. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-01-01

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

  7. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-03-08

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

  8. The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, J.

    2015-12-01

    It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.

  9. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

    Science.gov (United States)

    MIMURA, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

  10. Extended late Holocene relative sea-level histories for North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Andrew C.; Kegel, Jessica J.; Culver, Stephen J.; Barber, Donald C.; Mallinson, David J.; Leorri, Eduardo; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Cahill, Niamh; Riggs, Stanley R.; Woodson, Anna L.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Horton, Benjamin P.

    2017-03-01

    We produced ∼3000-year long relative sea-level (RSL) histories for two sites in North Carolina (USA) using foraminifera preserved in new and existing cores of dated salt-marsh sediment. At Cedar Island, RSL rose by ∼2.4 m during the past ∼3000 years compared to ∼3.3 m at Roanoke Island. This spatial difference arises primarily from differential GIA that caused late Holocene RSL rise to be 0.1-0.2 mm/yr faster at Roanoke Island than at Cedar Island. However, a non-linear difference in RSL between the two study regions (particularly from ∼0 CE to ∼1250 CE) indicates that additional local- to regional-scale processes drove centennial-scale RSL change in North Carolina. Therefore, the Cedar Island and Roanoke Island records should be considered as independent of one another. Between-site differences on sub-millennial timescales cannot be adequately explained by non-stationary tides, sediment compaction, or local sediment dynamics. We propose that a period of accelerating RSL rise from ∼600 CE to 1100 CE that is present at Roanoke Island (and other sites north of Cape Hatteras at least as far as Connecticut), but absent at Cedar Island (and other sites south of Cape Hatteras at least as far as northeastern Florida) is a local-to regional-scale effect of dynamic ocean and/or atmospheric circulation.

  11. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  12. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  13. Late Pleistocene sea-level changes recorded in tidal and fluvial deposits from Itaubal Formation, onshore portion of the Foz do Amazonas Basin, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Salém Alves Azevedo Bezerra

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe Pleistocene deposits exposed in the Amapá Coastal Plain (onshore portion of the Foz do Amazonas Basin, northeastern South America were previously interpreted as Miocene in age. In this work, they were named as "Itaubal Formation" and were included in the quaternary coastal history of Amazonia. The study, through facies and stratigraphic analyses in combination with optically stimulated luminescence (single and multiple aliquot regeneration, allowed interpreting this unit as Late Pleistocene tidal and fluvial deposits. The Itaubal Formation, which unconformably overlies strongly weathered basement rocks of the Guianas Shield, was subdivided into two progradational units, separated by an unconformity related to sea-level fall, here named as Lower and Upper Units. The Lower Unit yielded ages between 120,600 (± 12,000 and 70,850 (± 6,700 years BP and consists of subtidal flat, tide-influenced meandering stream and floodplain deposits, during highstand conditions. The Upper Unit spans between 69,150 (± 7,200 and 58,150 (± 6,800 years BP and is characterized by braided fluvial deposits incised in the Lower Unit, related to base-level fall; lowstand conditions remained until 23,500 (± 3,000 years BP. The studied region was likely exposed during the Last Glacial Maximum and then during Holocene, covered by tidal deposits influenced by the Amazon River.

  14. The NEA research and environmental surveillance programme related to sea disposal of low-level radioactive waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugger, B.; Templeton, W. L.; Gurbutt, P.

    1983-05-01

    Sea dumping operations of certain types of packaged low and medium level radioactive wastes have been carried out since 1967 in the North-East Atlantic under the auspices of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. On the occasion of the 1980 review of the continued suitability of the North-East Atlantic site used for the disposal of radioactive waste, it was recommended that an effort should be made to increase the scientific data base relating to the oceanographic and biological characteristics of the dumping area. In particular, it was suggested that a site specific model of the transfer of radionuclides in the marine environment be developed, which would permit a better assessment of the potential radiation doses to man from the dumping of radioactive waste. To fulfill these objectives a research and environmental surveillance program related to sea disposal of radioactive waste was set up in 1981 with the participation of thirteen Member countries and the International Laboratory for Marine Radioactivity of the IAEA in Monaco. The research program is focused on five research areas which are directly relevant to the preparation of more site specific assessments in the future. They are: model development; physical oceanography; geochemistry; biology; and radiological surveillance. Promising results have already been obtained and more are anticipated in the not too distant future. An interim description of the NEA dumping site has been prepared which provides an excellent data base for this area.

  15. Recent Arctic sea level variations from satellites

    OpenAIRE

    Ole Baltazar Andersen; Gaia ePiccioni

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher...

  16. Journey to a safe environment: fall prevention in an emergency department at a level I trauma center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Danette; Kinsley, Terry L; Waszinski, Christine

    2013-07-01

    Predicting which patients will fall is a challenging task, especially in the often unpredictable setting of an emergency department of a Level I Trauma Center. Unfortunately, there is a great potential for falls to occur in this environment. Fall risk assessment tools used in inpatient settings do not adequately capture the risk factors of patients presenting to the emergency department. The ability to accurately identify patients at risk for falling at the point of entry is the first step toward preventing patient harm. Once patients are identified as at risk for a fall, the next challenge is to be sure that they do not fall. We created the KINDER1 Fall Risk Assessment Tool for use in the emergency department. This instrument was specifically designed for the rapid identification of patients at risk for a fall as well as the re-evaluation of patients for fall risk throughout their stay in the emergency department. Once we had an appropriate assessment tool, our next challenge was for staff to consistently apply fall prevention interventions. Performing a mini-root cause analysis on each fall showed trends and in turn led to the design and implementation of specific fall prevention interventions to motivate the nursing staff to focus on fall prevention that the ED nursing leadership used to select change strategies. With improved identification of fall risk patients and consistent application of innovative prevention strategies, we were able to show a trend toward reduction of falls and fall-related injuries in our emergency department. Copyright © 2013 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Late Quaternary sea level and environmental changes from relic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Keywords. Late Quaternary sea level; western margin of India; subsidence; uplift; depositional environment. ...... sea level rise by about 80m (between 12,000 and. 7,000 yr BP) or, .... from the Florida Keys; Palaentology 28 189–206. Carballo ...

  18. Selection of useful items for fall risk screening for community dwelling Japanese elderly from the perspective of fall experience, physical function, and age level differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demura, Shinichi; Yamada, Takayoshi; Uchiyama, Masanobu; Sugiura, Hiroki; Hamazaki, Hiroshi

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to examine useful items for screening the fall risk of community dwelling elderly from various perspectives, including fall experience, physical function level, and age level difference. 968 independently living elderly persons over the age of 60 (age: 70.0 ± 7.0) responded to 80 fall risk items representing 7 factors (physical function, fall history, using devices, fear of falling and inactivity, dosing, disease and disability, and environment) and an ADL questionnaire. The high fall risk response rate was calculated for each item and tested for statistical significance among age groups and those with and without fall experience. Cramer's V was calculated to examine the relationship between each item and the ADL. In addition, we selected items with significant differences in the high fall risk response rates between the faller and the non-faller groups, a significant relationship with ADL, and a significant difference among age groups. A total of 40 useful items were selected from each fall risk factor (decrease in physical function: 21 items, fall history: 2 items, device usage: 3 items, fear of falling and inactivity: 5 items, dosing: 0 items, disease and disability: 8 items, and environment: 1 item). Selected items can comprehensively and properly assess the fall risk of the healthy elderly as compared with existing questionnaires. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Trends in fall-related hospital admissions in older persons in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.A. Hartholt (Klaas); N. van der Velde (Nathalie); C.W.N. Looman (Caspar); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther); M.J.M. Panneman (Martien); E.F. van Beeck (Ed); P. Patka (Peter); T.J.M. van der Cammen (Tischa)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Fall-related injuries, hospitalizations, and mortality among older persons represent a major public health problem. Owing to aging societies worldwide, a major impact on fall-related health care demand can be expected. We determined time trends in numbers and incidence of

  20. RADIOECOLOGICAL STUDIES IN MARINE ENVIRONMENT. A STUDY ON THE CONCENTRATION OF MIXED FISSION PRODUCTS IN GREEK SEA WATERS AND OF 137CS IN FISH AND SEA PLANTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DANALI-KOTSAKI, S.; FLOROU-GAZI, H.

    1982-12-01

    Full text: The concentrations of mixed fission products in sea water and of 137 Cs in fish and sea plants are different for samples collected from different sampling areas. This difference is more remarkable the year where the level of the world wide fall-out is higher, especially with regards to M. F. P. concentrations in sea water samples. Increases or decreases to M.F.P. concentrations in sea water samples result to increases or decreases of 137 Cs in fish and sea plants. (author)

  1. Sea-level changes on multiple spatial scales: estimates and contributing processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederikse, T.

    2018-01-01

    Being one of the major consequences of anthropogenic climate change, sea level rise forms a threat for many coastal areas and their inhabitants. Because all processes that cause sea-level changes have a spatially-varying fingerprint, local sea-level changes deviate substantially from the global

  2. Risk assessment of fall-related occupational accidents in the workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukada, Tsukimi; Sakakibara, Hisataka

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study aimed to examine effective assessment methods of falls in the workplace. Methods: There were 436 employees (305 males and 131 females) of electrical appliance manufacturers included in this study. In 2014, a baseline survey was conducted using the fall scores questionnaire and the self-check risk assessment of falls and other accidents in the workplace (physical function measurement and questionnaire). In 2015, the occurrence of falls in the past year was investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine factors relevant to falls. Results: In total, 62 subjects (14.2%) fell during the year, including those who fell during off-hours. The occurrence of falls during that one year was only associated with having experienced falls during the past year in the baseline survey (odds ratio [OR] 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-9.7). Falls during that year were also related to the inability to walk 1 km continuously (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.1-0.6), tripping sometimes (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.6-9.9), step height differences at home (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3-6.8), and working in the production section (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Measurements of physical functions, such as muscle strength, balance, and agility, were not different between subjects who fell and those who did not. Conclusions: Our results showed that the questionnaire assessing falls during the past year could be useful to assess the risk of falls in the workplace. Annual checks for falls may contribute to fall prevention programs in the workplace. PMID:27725487

  3. Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

    2013-12-01

    Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future

  4. Forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level, a Continuous-Time State-Space Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boldrini, Lorenzo

    In this paper we propose a continuous-time, Gaussian, linear, state-space system to model the relation between global mean sea level (GMSL) and the global mean temperature (GMT), with the aim of making long-term projections for the GMSL. We provide a justification for the model specification based......) and the temperature reconstruction from Hansen et al. (2010). We compare the forecasting performance of the proposed specification to the procedures developed in Rahmstorf (2007b) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). Finally, we compute projections for the sea-level rise conditional on the 21st century SRES temperature...

  5. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimura, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

  6. Palaeo sea-level and ice-sheet databases: problems, strategies and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, Alessio; Düsterhus, André; Carlson, Anders; Barlow, Natasha; Bradwell, Tom; Dutton, Andrea; Gehrels, Roland; Hibbert, Fiona; Hijma, Marc; Horton, Benjamin; Klemann, Volker; Kopp, Robert; Sivan, Dorit; Tarasov, Lev; Törnqvist, Torbjorn

    2016-04-01

    Databases of palaeoclimate data have driven many major developments in understanding the Earth system. The measurement and interpretation of palaeo sea-level and ice-sheet data that form such databases pose considerable challenges to the scientific communities that use them for further analyses. In this paper, we build on the experience of the PALSEA (PALeo constraints on SEA level rise) community, which is a working group inside the PAGES (Past Global Changes) project, to describe the challenges and best strategies that can be adopted to build a self-consistent and standardised database of geological and geochemical data related to palaeo sea levels and ice sheets. Our aim in this paper is to identify key points that need attention and subsequent funding when undertaking the task of database creation. We conclude that any sea-level or ice-sheet database must be divided into three instances: i) measurement; ii) interpretation; iii) database creation. Measurement should include postion, age, description of geological features, and quantification of uncertainties. All must be described as objectively as possible. Interpretation can be subjective, but it should always include uncertainties and include all the possible interpretations, without unjustified a priori exclusions. We propose that, in the creation of a database, an approach based on Accessibility, Transparency, Trust, Availability, Continued updating, Completeness and Communication of content (ATTAC3) must be adopted. Also, it is essential to consider the community structure that creates and benefits of a database. We conclude that funding sources should consider to address not only the creation of original data in specific research-question oriented projects, but also include the possibility to use part of the funding for IT-related and database creation tasks, which are essential to guarantee accessibility and maintenance of the collected data.

  7. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senarath, S. U.

    2005-12-01

    Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous

  8. A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia

    2015-05-01

    In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.

  9. Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components

    CERN Document Server

    Champollion, Nicolas; Paul, Frank; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents the most recent results of global mean sea level variations over the satellite altimetry era (starting in the early 1990s) and associated contributions, such as glaciers and ice sheets mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and land water storage changes. Sea level is one of the best indicators of global climate changes as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to external forcing factors (including anthropogenic forcing) and internal climate variability. Providing long, accurate records of the sea level at global and regional scales and of the various components causing sea level changes is of crucial importance to improve our understanding of climate processes at work and to validate the climate models used for future projections. The Climate Change Initiative project of the European Space Agency has provided a first attempt to produce consistent and continuous space-based records for several climate parameters observable from space, among them sea level. Th...

  10. How reversible is sea ice loss?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Ridley

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available It is well accepted that increasing atmospheric CO2 results in global warming, leading to a decline in polar sea ice area. Here, the specific question of whether there is a tipping point in the sea ice cover is investigated. The global climate model HadCM3 is used to map the trajectory of sea ice area under idealised scenarios. The atmospheric CO2 is first ramped up to four times pre-industrial levels (4 × CO2, then ramped down to pre-industrial levels. We also examine the impact of stabilising climate at 4 × CO2 prior to ramping CO2 down to pre-industrial levels. Against global mean temperature, Arctic sea ice area is reversible, while the Antarctic sea ice shows some asymmetric behaviour – its rate of change slower, with falling temperatures, than its rate of change with rising temperatures. However, we show that the asymmetric behaviour is driven by hemispherical differences in temperature change between transient and stabilisation periods. We find no irreversible behaviour in the sea ice cover.

  11. Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

    2017-12-01

    For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

  12. Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, P.

    2015-12-01

    There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

  13. Roles of Sea Level and Climate Change in the Development of Holocene Deltaic Sequences in the Yellow Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Milliman, J. D.

    2002-12-01

    Both post-glacial sea-level and climatic changes are preserved in the the shallow, low gradient, sediment-dominated Yellow Sea. As a result of rapid flooding during melt-water pulse (MWP) 1A, 14.3-14.1 ka BP, sea level reached the southern edge of the North Yellow Sea (NYS), and after MWP-1B (11.6-11.4 ka BP) sea level entered the Bohai Sea. The first major Yellow River-derived deltaic deposit formed in the NYS during decelerated transgression following MWP-1B and increased river discharge in response to re-intensification of the summer monsoon about 11 ka cal BP. A second subaqueous delta formed in the South Yellow Sea about 9-7 ka BP during decelerated transgression after MWP-1C flooding and in response to the southern shift of the Yellow River mouth. The modern subaqueous and subaerial deltas in the west Bahai Gulf and (to a lesser extent) along the Jiangus coast have formed during the modern sea-level highstand. These changing Holocene patterns are most clearly illustrated by a short film clip.

  14. 60-year Nordic and arctic sea level reconstruction based on a reprocessed two decade altimetric sea level record and tide gauges

    OpenAIRE

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2015-01-01

    Due to the sparsity and often poor quality of data, reconstructing Arctic sea level is highly challenging. We present a reconstruction of Arctic sea level covering 1950 to 2010, using the approaches from Church et al. (2004) and Ray and Douglas (2011). This involves decomposition of an altimetry calibration record into EOFs, and fitting these patterns to a historical tide gauge record.

  15. Thermosteric contribution of warming oceans to the global sea level variations

    OpenAIRE

    Bâki Iz H.

    2016-01-01

    Thermosteric contribution of warming oceans to the global sea level variations during the last century was evaluated at globally distributed 27 tide gauge stations with records over 80 years. The assessment was made using a recently proposed lagged model inclusive of a sea level trend, long and decadal periodicities, and lagged sea surface temperature measurements. The new model solutions revealed that almost all the long period periodic sea level changes experienced a...

  16. Correspondence of Mesozoic Eustatic Sea-Level Change with Palaeoclimate Proxies: Evidence for Glacio-Eustasy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, M.; Davies, A.; Gréselle, B.

    2011-12-01

    Large-scale changes in stratigraphic architecture and facies that are brought about by changes in relative sea-level have been the focus of much academic and industry study over the last few decades. The authors, plus numerous colleagues, have studied over 11,000 stratigraphic sections worldwide. By applying biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic calibration in suitable locations from this dataset it is possible to demonstrate over 250 synchronous global sequence stratigraphic events in the Phanerozoic including over 100 in the Mesozoic. This then raises the question - what causes globally synchronous eustatic sea-level change? To answer this question requires an understanding of both the pace and amplitude of the observed eustatic sea-level change. In successions where duration can be deduced from orbital forcing cycles, our observed sea-level changes appear to be relatively rapid - less than 500,000 years, for example, for sea-level rises in the Late Jurassic. The amplitude of such rises is in the order of tens of metres. Such rates and amplitudes as inferred from our global model preclude tectonism as a primary driver and implicate glacio-eustacy as a key driving mechanism, even in supposed "greenhouse times". Given the clear economic importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms driving this eustatic change we have compiled records of key isotopic proxies through the entire Mesozoic in an effort to explore the relationship between global sea-level and palaeoclimate. Our research reveals a clear link between many large-scale maximum flooding events with known episodes of palaeoclimatic warming and between climatic cooling events and lowstand intervals, further implicating glacio-eustacy. In addition to the isotopic proxy evidence we have also compiled direct indicators for the occurrence of cold polar conditions, including the presence of ice sheets, in the Mesozoic (e.g. tillites, glendonites). This has been incorporated into plate tectonic

  17. Nationwide time trends and risk factors for in-hospital falls-related major injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, T. S. H.; Hansen, A. H.; Sahlberg, M.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundAccidental falls during hospitalisation have a range of complications and more information is needed to improve prevention. We investigated patterns of in-hospital fall-related major injuries in the period 2000-2012 and the association between chronic conditions and in-hospital fall......-related major injuries. MethodsUsing administrative databases, patients aged 65+ years with in-hospital falls causing fractures or head injuries with need for surgery or intensive observation were identified as cases and were individually matched with five controls. Joinpoint regression was used to examine time...... trends and conditional logistic regression was used to analyse odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital falls-related major injuries according to a range of comorbidities. ResultsFour thousand seven hundred and fifty-four cases were identified from 2000 to 2012 and the most common injury was femur fracture (61...

  18. Coastal Marsh Longevity, Ecological Succession, and Organic Carbon Dynamics During Early Holocene Sea-Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, L.; Schreiner, K. M.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Tornqvist, T. E.

    2016-02-01

    Coastal marsh environments perform essential ecosystem services, including nutrient filtering, soil organic matter storage, and storm surge abatement, yet much is still unknown about their formation and fate under periods of sea-level change. During the early Holocene (7-10 ka), rapid sea-level rise in coastal Louisiana was one of the primary controls over marsh development and longevity. Here, we investigate plant community composition and succession and soil organic matter storage in early Holocene coastal marshes in Louisiana using bulk elemental ratios, lignin phenol biomarkers and stable isotopes from peat layers. Sediment cores were collected in southeastern Louisiana and contain a record of an early Holocene transgressive sea-level sequence 16-25 m below present sea-level. The sedimentary record consists of an immature paleosol overlain by basal peat that accumulated in an estuarine marsh, overlain by marine lagoonal muds. A re-established marsh peat is present 1-4 m above the initial transition to marine conditions, indicating a sequence of marsh development, sea-level rise and onset of marine conditions, and then further marsh development as the rate of relative sea-level rise decelerated. Plant community composition in coastal marshes was determined through cupric oxide oxidation and lignin-phenol and non-lignin-phenol biomarker abundances. The degradation state of soil organic matter and the specific source of stabilized organic matter within the sedimentary peats were determined through lignin-phenol biomarker ratios. Organic matter sources ranged from terrestrial to marine over the course of sea-level rise, and different sites showed different amounts of marine organic matter influence and different levels of terrestrial organic matter degradation. These results have important implications for reconstructing the response of coastal marshes and their plant communities to accelerated rates of sea-level rise projected through 2100.

  19. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S. E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, Michael; Bal, Henri E.; Seinstra, Frank J.; van Werkhoven, Ben; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and

  20. Measuring progress of the global sea level observing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Philip L.; Aarup, Thorkild; Merrifield, Mark; Mitchum, Gary T.; Le Provost, Christian

    Sea level is such a fundamental parameter in the sciences of oceanography geophysics, and climate change, that in the mid-1980s, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). GLOSS was to improve the quantity and quality of data provided to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), and thereby, data for input to studies of long-term sea level change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It would also provide the key data needed for international programs, such as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and later, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR).GLOSS is now one of the main observation components of the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) of IOC and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Progress and deficiencies in GLOSS were presented in July to the 22nd IOC Assembly at UNESCO in Paris and are contained in the GLOSS Assessment Report (GAR) [IOC, 2003a].

  1. Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Rosenberg

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr−1 to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.

  2. Changes in BOLD and ADC weighted imaging in acute hypoxia during sea-level and altitude adapted states

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostrup, Egill; Larsson, Henrik B.W.; Born, Alfred P.

    2005-01-01

    possible structural changes as measured by diffusion weighted imaging. Eleven healthy sea-level residents were studied after 5 weeks of adaptation to high altitude conditions at Chacaltaya, Bolivia (5260 m). The subjects were studied immediately after return to sea-level in hypoxic and normoxic conditions...... was slightly elevated in high altitude as compared to sea-level adaptation. It is concluded that hypoxia significantly diminishes the BOLD response, and the mechanisms underlying this finding are discussed. Furthermore, altitude adaptation may influence both the magnitude of the activation-related response......, and the examinations repeated 6 months later after re-adaptation to sea-level conditions. The BOLD response, measured at 1.5 T, was severely reduced during acute hypoxia both in the altitude and sea-level adapted states (50% reduction during an average S(a)O(2) of 75%). On average, the BOLD response magnitude was 23...

  3. Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

    2015-01-01

    The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

  4. Sea Level History in 3D: Early results of an ultra-high resolution MCS survey across IODP Expedition 313 drillsites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mountain, G. S.; Kucuk, H. M.; Nedimovic, M. R.; Austin, J. A., Jr.; Fulthorpe, C.; Newton, A.; Baldwin, K.; Johnson, C.; Stanley, J. N.; Bhatnagar, T.

    2015-12-01

    Although globally averaged sea level is rising at roughly 3 mm/yr (and is accelerating), rates of local sea-level change measured at coastlines may differ from this number by a factor of two or more; at some locations, sea level may even be falling. This is due to local processes that can match or even reverse the global trend, making it clear that reliable predictions of future impacts of sea-level rise require a firm understanding of processes at the local level. The history of local sea-level change and shoreline response is contained in the geologic record of shallow-water sediments. We report on a continuing study of sea-level history in sediments at the New Jersey continental margin, where compaction and glacial isostatic adjustment are currently adding 2 mm/yr to the globally averaged rise. We collected 570 sq km of ultra-high resolution 3D MCS data aboard the R/V Langseth in June-July 2015; innovative recording and preliminary results are described by Nedimovic et al. in this same session. The goal was to provide regional context to coring and logging at IODP Exp 313 sites 27-29 that were drilled 750 m into the New Jersey shelf in 2009. These sites recovered a nearly continuous record of post-Eocene sediments from non-marine soils, estuaries, shoreface, delta front, pro-delta and open marine settings. Existing seismic data are good but are 2D high-resolution profiles at line spacings too wide to enable mapping of key nearshore features. The Langseth 3D survey used shallow towing of a tuned air gun array to preserve high frequencies, and twenty-four 50-m PCables each 12.5 apart provided 6.25 x 3.125 m common-midpoint bins along seventy-seven 50-km sail lines. With this especially dense spatial resolution of a pre-stack time migrated volume we expect to map rivers, incised valleys, barrier islands, inlets and bays, pro-delta clinoforms, tidal deltas, sequence boundaries, debris flow aprons, and more. Seismic attributes linked to sedimentary facies and

  5. GHRSST Level 4 DMI_OI North Sea and Baltic Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the Danish...

  6. More than 70 years of continuous sea level records on the Santander Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavín, Alicia; Tel, Elena; Molinero, Joaquin; Rodriguez, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    The knowledge of sea level height is important for many different sectors as navigation, transport, building infrastructures, tourism, or maritime sports, between others. Tides are mainly composed of an astronomical part and a meteorological one. Sometimes, their joined action is the responsible of extreme behaviors in the sea level. Influence of pressure differences, as well as related winds, is important in the behavior of sea level to analyze. The first system for reading the sea level was a tide board attached at the pier. In Spain the first modern tide gauge was installed in the Port of Alicante, Mediterranean Sea, in 1873 depending of the National Geographic Institute (IGN). Just the following year, a similar tide gauge was installed at the entrance of the Santander Bay. "La Magdalena" tide gauge was working during two periods 1876-1928 and 1963-1975. Together with Cádiz, the IGN tide gauges were used to determinate the national datum for terrestrial cartography. The Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) tide gauge network was initiated in 1943 with the installation of tide gauges along the Spanish coast. One of them was located in Santander and has been working since then. At the beginning it was a float tide gauge connected to a graphical continuous recorder. Nowadays, it also has a digital encoder and a remote connection that allow using the recorded data for operational purposes. Later a Radar system was added. This tide gauge is referred to the Tide Gauge Zero and also calibrated to a benchmark in order to have a unique reference. This high quality sea level information is required for international and regional research activities, as Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). In particular, long time series are widely used for climate change detection. The sea level long term variability studies require a very good quality data focus in the reference of the data along the whole period and also it will be more precisely if we can remove the crustal

  7. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, K. M.; Huang, T.; Quach, N. T.; Boening, C.

    2016-12-01

    NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides scientists and the general public with "one-stop" source for current sea level change information and data. Sea Level Rise research is a multidisciplinary research and in order to understand its causes, scientists must be able to access different measurements and to be able to compare them. The portal includes an interactive tool, called the Data Analysis Tool (DAT), for accessing, visualizing, and analyzing observations and models relevant to the study of Sea Level Rise. Using NEXUS, an open source, big data analytic technology developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the DAT is able provide user on-the-fly data analysis on all relevant parameters. DAT is composed of three major components: A dedicated instance of OnEarth (a WMTS service), NEXUS deep data analytic platform, and the JPL Common Mapping Client (CMC) for web browser based user interface (UI). Utilizing the global imagery, a user is capable of browsing the data in a visual manner and isolate areas of interest for further study. The interfaces "Analysis" tool provides tools for area or point selection, single and/or comparative dataset selection, and a range of options, algorithms, and plotting. This analysis component utilizes the Nexus cloud computing platform to provide on-demand processing of the data within the user-selected parameters and immediate display of the results. A RESTful web API is exposed for users comfortable with other interfaces and who may want to take advantage of the cloud computing capabilities. This talk discuss how DAT enables on-the-fly sea level research. The talk will introduce the DAT with an end-to-end tour of the tool with exploration and animating of available imagery, a demonstration of comparative analysis and plotting, and how to share and export data along with images for use in publications/presentations. The session will cover what kind of data is available, what kind of analysis is possible, and what are the outputs.

  8. Sources and levels of ambient ocean sound near the Antarctic Peninsula.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P Dziak

    Full Text Available Arrays of hydrophones were deployed within the Bransfield Strait and Scotia Sea (Antarctic Peninsula region from 2005 to 2009 to record ambient ocean sound at frequencies of up to 125 and 500 Hz. Icequakes, which are broadband, short duration signals derived from fracturing of large free-floating icebergs, are a prominent feature of the ocean soundscape. Icequake activity peaks during austral summer and is minimum during winter, likely following freeze-thaw cycles. Iceberg grounding and rapid disintegration also releases significant acoustic energy, equivalent to large-scale geophysical events. Overall ambient sound levels can be as much as ~10-20 dB higher in the open, deep ocean of the Scotia Sea compared to the relatively shallow Bransfield Strait. Noise levels become lowest during the austral winter, as sea-ice cover suppresses wind and wave noise. Ambient noise levels are highest during austral spring and summer, as surface noise, ice cracking and biological activity intensifies. Vocalizations of blue (Balaenoptera musculus and fin (B. physalus whales also dominate the long-term spectra records in the 15-28 and 89 Hz bands. Blue whale call energy is a maximum during austral summer-fall in the Drake Passage and Bransfield Strait when ambient noise levels are a maximum and sea-ice cover is a minimum. Fin whale vocalizations were also most common during austral summer-early fall months in both the Bransfield Strait and Scotia Sea. The hydrophone data overall do not show sustained anthropogenic sources (ships and airguns, likely due to low coastal traffic and the typically rough weather and sea conditions of the Southern Ocean.

  9. What Causes the North Sea Level to Rise Faster over the Last Decade ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpytchev, Mikhail; Letetrel, Camille

    2013-04-01

    We combined tide gauge records (PSMSL) and satellite altimetry data (TOPEX/POSEIDON-JASON 1-2) to reconstruct the mean level of the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea Shelf (NS-NSS) over 1950-2012. The reconstructed NS-NSS mean sea level fluctuations reveal a pronounced interannual variability and a strong sea level acceleration since the mid-1990's. In order to understand the causes of this acceleration, the NS-NSS mean sea level was cross-correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. While the interannual variability of the mean sea level correlates well with the NAO/AO indices, the observed acceleration in the NS-NSS mean level is not linked linearly to the NAO/AO fluctuations. On the other hand, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis of steric sea level variations in the eastern North Atlantic gives a dominant EOF pattern (55% of variance explained) that varies on a decadal scale very closely to the NS-NSS mean level flcutuations. Also, the amplification in the temporal amplitude of the dominant steric sea level EOF corresponds to the acceleration observed in the NS-NSS mean sea level signal. This suggests that decadal variations in the mean level of the North Sea - the Norwegian Sea Shelf reflect changes in the Subpolar Front currents (Rossby, 1996).

  10. Modal recovery of sea-level variability in the South China Sea using merged altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Haoyu; Chen, Ge

    2015-09-01

    Using 20 years (1993-2012) of merged data recorded by contemporary multi-altimeter missions, a variety of sea-level variability modes are recovered in the South China Sea employing three-dimensional harmonic extraction. In terms of the long-term variation, the South China Sea is estimated to have a rising sea-level linear trend of 5.39 mm/a over these 20 years. Among the modes extracted, the seven most statistically significant periodic or quasi-periodic modes are identified as principal modes. The geographical distributions of the magnitudes and phases of the modes are displayed. In terms of intraannual and annual regimes, two principal modes with strict semiannual and annual periods are found, with the annual variability having the largest amplitudes among the seven modes. For interannual and decadal regimes, five principal modes at approximately 18, 21, 23, 28, and 112 months are found with the most mode-active region being to the east of Vietnam. For the phase distributions, a series of amphidromes are observed as twins, termed "amphidrome twins", comprising rotating dipole systems. The stability of periodic modes is investigated employing joint spatiotemporal analysis of latitude/longitude sections. Results show that all periodic modes are robust, revealing the richness and complexity of sea-level modes in the South China Sea.

  11. Extended late Holocene relative sea-level histories for North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Andrew C.; Kegel, Jessica J.; Culver, Stephen J.; Barber, Donald C.; Mallinson, David J.; Leorri, Eduardo; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Cahill, Niamh; Riggs, Stanley R.; Woodson, Anna L.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Horton, Benjamin P.

    2017-01-01

    We produced ∼3000-year long relative sea-level (RSL) histories for two sites in North Carolina (USA) using foraminifera preserved in new and existing cores of dated salt-marsh sediment. At Cedar Island, RSL rose by ∼2.4 m during the past ∼3000 years compared to ∼3.3 m at Roanoke Island. This spatial difference arises primarily from differential GIA that caused late Holocene RSL rise to be 0.1–0.2 mm/yr faster at Roanoke Island than at Cedar Island. However, a non-linear difference in RSL between the two study regions (particularly from ∼0 CE to ∼1250 CE) indicates that additional local- to regional-scale processes drove centennial-scale RSL change in North Carolina. Therefore, the Cedar Island and Roanoke Island records should be considered as independent of one another. Between-site differences on sub-millennial timescales cannot be adequately explained by non-stationary tides, sediment compaction, or local sediment dynamics. We propose that a period of accelerating RSL rise from ∼600 CE to 1100 CE that is present at Roanoke Island (and other sites north of Cape Hatteras at least as far as Connecticut), but absent at Cedar Island (and other sites south of Cape Hatteras at least as far as northeastern Florida) is a local-to regional-scale effect of dynamic ocean and/or atmospheric circulation.

  12. Robustness of observation-based decadal sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nidheesh, A. G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Izumo, T.; Unnikrishnan, A. S.; Meyssignac, B.; Hamlington, B.; de Boyer Montegut, C.

    2017-07-01

    We examine the consistency of Indo-Pacific decadal sea level variability in 10 gridded, observation-based sea level products for the 1960-2010 period. Decadal sea level variations are robust in the Pacific, with more than 50% of variance explained by decadal modulation of two flavors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (classical ENSO and Modoki). Amplitude of decadal sea level variability is weaker in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. All data sets indicate a transmission of decadal sea level signals from the western Pacific to the northwest Australian coast through the Indonesian throughflow. The southern tropical Indian Ocean sea level variability is associated with decadal modulations of ENSO in reconstructions but not in reanalyses or in situ data set. The Pacific-independent Indian Ocean decadal sea level variability is not robust but tends to be maximum in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency of Indian Ocean decadal variability across the sea level products calls for caution in making definitive conclusions on decadal sea level variability in this basin.

  13. Orthogonal stack of global tide gauge sea level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trupin, A.; Wahr, J.

    1990-01-01

    Yearly and monthly tide gauge sea level data from around the globe are fitted to numerically generated equilibrium tidal data to search for the 18.6 year lunar tide and 14 month pole tide. Both tides are clearly evident in the results, and their amplitudes and phases are found to be consistent with a global equilibrium response. Global, monthly sea level data from outside the Baltic sea and Gulf of Bothnia are fitted to global atmospheric pressure data to study the response of the ocean to pressure fluctuations. The response is found to be inverted barometer at periods greater than two months. Global averages of tide gauge data, after correcting for the effects of post glacial rebound on individual station records, reveal an increase in sea level over the last 80 years of between 1.1 mm/yr and 1.9 mm/yr.

  14. Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M.

    2016-11-01

    Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea-level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences.

  15. An Update of Sea Level Rise in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alothman, Abdulaziz; Bos, Machiel; Fernandes, Rui

    2017-04-01

    Relative sea level variations in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf have been estimated in the past using no more than 10 to 15 years of observations. In Alothman et al. (2014), we have almost doubled the period to 28.7 years by examining all available tide gauge data in the area and constructing a mean gauge time-series from seven coastal tide gauges. We found for the period 1979-2007 a relative sea level rise of about 2mm/yr, which correspond to an absolute sea level rise of about 1.5mm/yr based on the vertical displacement of GNSS stations in the region. By taking into account the temporal correlations we concluded that previous published results underestimate the true sea level rate error in this area by a factor of 5-10. In this work, we discuss and update the methodology and results from Alothman et al. (2014), particularly by checking and extending the GNSS solutions. Since 3 of the 6 GPS stations used only started observing in the end of 2011, the longer time series have now significantly lower uncertainties in the estimated vertical rate. In addition, we compare our results with GRACE derived ocean bottom pressure time series which are a good proxy of the changes in water mass in this area over time.

  16. Brest sea level record: a time series construction back to the early eighteenth century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wöppelmann, Guy; Pouvreau, Nicolas; Simon, Bernard

    2006-12-01

    The completeness and the accuracy of the Brest sea level time series dating from 1807 make it suitable for long-term sea level trend studies. New data sets were recently discovered in the form of handwritten tabulations, including several decades of the eighteenth century. Sea level observations have been made in Brest since 1679. This paper presents the historical data sets which have been assembled so far. These data sets span approximately 300 years and together constitute the longest, near-continuous set of sea level information in France. However, an important question arises: Can we relate the past and the present-day records? We partially provide an answer to this question by analysing the documents of several historical libraries with the tidal data using a ‘data archaeology’ approach advocated by Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett 26:1589 1592, 1999b). A second question arises concerning the accuracy of such records. Careful editing was undertaken by examining the residuals between tidal predictions and observations. It proved useful to remove the worst effects of timing errors, in particular the sundial correction to be applied prior to August 1, 1714. A refined correction based on sundial literature [Savoie, La gnomique, Editions Les Belles Lettres, Paris, 2001] is proposed, which eliminates the systematic offsets seen in the discrepancies in timing of the sea level measurements. The tidal analysis has also shown that shallow-water tidal harmonics at Brest causes a systematic difference of 0.023 m between mean sea level (MSL) and mean tide level (MTL). Thus, MTL should not be mixed with the time series of MSL because of this systematic offset. The study of the trends in MTL and MSL however indicates that MTL can be used as a proxy for MSL. Three linear trend periods are distinguished in the Brest MTL time series over the period 1807 2004. Our results support the recent findings of Holgate and Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett) of an enhanced coastal sea level

  17. Infilling and flooding of the Mekong River incised valley during deglacial sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjallingii, Rik; Stattegger, Karl; Wetzel, Andreas; Van Phach, Phung

    2010-06-01

    The abrupt transition from fluvial to marine deposition of incised-valley-fill sediments retrieved from the southeast Vietnamese shelf, accurately records the postglacial transgression after 14 ka before present (BP). Valley-filling sediments consist of fluvial mud, whereas sedimentation after the transgression is characterized by shallow-marine carbonate sands. This change in sediment composition is accurately marked in high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records. Rapid aggradation of fluvial sediments at the river mouth nearly completely filled the Mekong incised valley prior to flooding. However, accumulation rates strongly reduced in the valley after the river-mouth system flooded and stepped back. This also affected the sediment supply to deeper parts of the southeast Vietnamese shelf. Comparison of the Mekong valley-filling with the East Asian sea-level history of sub- and inter-tidal sediment records shows that the transgressive surface preserved in the incised-valley-fill records is a robust sea-level indicator. The valley was nearly completely filled with fluvial sediments between 13.0 and 9.5 ka BP when sea-level rose rather constantly with approximately 10 mm/yr, as indicated by the East Asian sea-level record. At shallower parts of the shelf, significant sediment reworking and the establishment of estuarine conditions at the final stage of infilling complicates accurate dating of the transgressive surface. Nevertheless, incised-valley-fill records and land-based drill sites indicate a vast and rapid flooding of the shelf from the location of the modern Vietnamese coastline to the Cambodian lowlands between 9.5 ka and 8.5 ka BP. Fast flooding of this part of the shelf is related with the low shelf gradient and a strong acceleration of the East Asian sea-level rise from 34 to 9 meter below modern sea level (mbsl) corresponding to the sea-level jump of melt water pulse (MWP) 1C.

  18. DUACS: Toward High Resolution Sea Level Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faugere, Y.; Gerald, D.; Ubelmann, C.; Claire, D.; Pujol, M. I.; Antoine, D.; Desjonqueres, J. D.; Picot, N.

    2016-12-01

    The DUACS system produces, as part of the CNES/SALP project, and the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service, high quality multimission altimetry Sea Level products for oceanographic applications, climate forecasting centers, geophysic and biology communities... These products consist in directly usable and easy to manipulate Level 3 (along-track cross-calibrated SLA) and Level 4 products (multiple sensors merged as maps or time series) and are available in global and regional version (Mediterranean Sea, Arctic, European Shelves …).The quality of the products is today limited by the altimeter technology "Low Resolution Mode" (LRM), and the lack of available observations. The launch of 2 new satellites in 2016, Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A, opens new perspectives. Using the global Synthetic Aperture Radar mode (SARM) coverage of S3A and optimizing the LRM altimeter processing (retracking, editing, ...) will allow us to fully exploit the fine-scale content of the altimetric missions. Thanks to this increase of real time altimetry observations we will also be able to improve Level-4 products by combining these new Level-3 products and new mapping methodology, such as dynamic interpolation. Finally these improvements will benefit to downstream products : geostrophic currents, Lagrangian products, eddy atlas… Overcoming all these challenges will provide major upgrades of Sea Level products to better fulfill user needs.

  19. Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

  20. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2010-01-01

    -proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (-19 to -26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 AD. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B...

  1. Assessing the impact of sea level rise due to climate change on seawater intrusion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, D T; Yamada, T; Ishidaira, H

    2018-03-01

    In the context of climate change, salinity intrusion into rivers has been, and will be, one of the most important issues for coastal water resources management. A combination of changes, including increased temperature, change in regional rainfall, especially sea level rise (SLR) related to climate change, will have significant impacts on this phenomenon. This paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MKD) for evaluating the effect of sea water intrusion under a new SLR scenario. Salinity intrusion was simulated by one-dimensional (1D) modeling. The relative sea level projection was constructed corresponding to the RCP 6.0 emission scenario for MKD based on the statistical downscaling method. The sea level in 2050 is projected to increase from 25 cm to 30 cm compared to the baseline period (in 2000). Furthermore, the simulated results suggested that salinity greater than 4 g/l, which affects rice yield, will intrude up to 50-60 km into the river. Approximately 30,000 ha of agricultural area will be affected if the sea level rise is 30 cm.

  2. Impact of sea-level rise on earthquake and landslide triggering offshore the Alentejo margin (SW Iberia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, M. C.; Roque, C.; Luttrell, K. M.; Vázquez, J. T.; Alonso, B.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquakes and submarine landslides are recurrent and widespread manifestations of fault activity offshore SW Iberia. The present work tests the effects of sea-level rise on offshore fault systems using Coulomb stress change calculations across the Alentejo margin. Large-scale faults capable of generating large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region, especially NE-SW trending thrusts and WNW-ESE trending dextral strike-slip faults imaged at basement depths, are either blocked or unaffected by flexural effects related to sea-level changes. Large-magnitude earthquakes occurring along these structures may, therefore, be less frequent during periods of sea-level rise. In contrast, sea-level rise promotes shallow fault ruptures within the sedimentary sequence along the continental slope and upper rise within distances of failures may either increase (if triggered by shallow fault ruptures) or decrease (if triggered by deep fault ruptures) as a result of sea-level rise. Moreover, observations of slope failures affecting the area of the Sines contourite drift highlight the role of sediment properties as preconditioning factors in this region.

  3. Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.

  4. Contrasting records of sea-level change in the eastern and western North Atlantic during the last 300 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, A. J.; Barlow, N. L. M.; Gehrels, W. R.; Saher, M. H.; Woodworth, P. L.; Scaife, R. G.; Brain, M. J.; Cahill, N.

    2014-02-01

    We present a new 300-year sea-level reconstruction from a salt marsh on the Isle of Wight (central English Channel, UK) that we compare to other salt-marsh and long tide-gauge records to examine spatial and temporal variability in sea-level change in the North Atlantic. Our new reconstruction identifies an overall rise in relative sea level (RSL) of c. 0.30 m since the start of the eighteenth century at a rate of 0.9±0.3 mm yr. Error-in-variables changepoint analysis indicates that there is no statistically significant deviation from a constant rate within the dataset. The reconstruction is broadly comparable to other tide-gauge and salt-marsh records from the European Atlantic, demonstrating coherence in sea level in this region over the last 150-300 years. In contrast, we identify significant differences in the rate and timing of RSL with records from the east coast of North America. The absence of a strong late 19th/early 20th century RSL acceleration contrasts with that recorded in salt marsh sediments along the eastern USA coastline, in particular in a well-dated and precise sea-level reconstruction from North Carolina. This suggests that this part of the North Carolina sea level record represents a regionally specific sea level acceleration. This is significant because the North Carolina record has been used as if it were globally representative within semi-empirical parameterisations of past and future sea-level change. We conclude that regional-scale differences of sea-level change highlight the value of using several, regionally representative RSL records when calibrating and testing semi-empirical models of sea level against palaeo-records. This is because by using records that potentially over-estimate sea-level rise in the past such models risk over-estimating sea-level rise in the future.

  5. Inter-annual sea level variability in the southern South China Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    (SCS) is one of the western marginal seas of the Pacific Ocean, surrounded by South China, Indo China Peninsula, Malaysian Peninsula, Philippines and Borneo Island. The SCS is a semi- enclosed basin connected to the western Pacific Ocean through Taiwan.... Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait. Ocean Science, 9(2). Torrence, C. and Compo, G.P., 1998. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(1): 61-78. Vargas‐Hernandez, J.M., Wijffels...

  6. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  7. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  8. Elderly users of fall-risk-increasing drug perceptions of fall risk and the relation to their drug use - a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Hege Therese; Steinsbekk, Aslak; Granas, Anne Gerd

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the study was to explore how home-dwelling elderly who use fall-risk-increasing drugs (FRIDs) perceive their fall risk and how they relate this to their drug use. A qualitative study with 14 home-dwelling elderly FRID users between 65 and 97 years in Central Norway participating in semi-structured individual interviews. The data were analyzed thematically by using systematic text condensation. The main finding was that the informants did not necessarily perceive the use of FRIDs to be a prominent risk factor for falls. Some informants said they did not reflect upon drug use whatsoever and said they fully trusted their physician's choices. When either experiencing dizziness, fall episodes or by reading the patient information leaflet the informants said to either adjust their drug use or to contact their physician. Some felt rejected due to not getting their point across or their wish to alter the drug was not granted by the physician. Elderly FRID users did not necessarily relate their drug use to fall risk or struggled to present their perceived drug-related problems. Physicians need to regularly inform, monitor and assess the drug treatment when treating elderly with FRIDs.

  9. Levels of some Trace Metals in Macroalgae from the Red Sea in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboul-Naga, Wafiqa Mohamed

    2005-01-01

    The concentrations of iron (Fe), Zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), Copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and cobalt (Co) in ten macroalgae species from the Red Sea coastal water varied widely and also the trend of abundance of each metal also differed from one group to another. Concentration factors varied among species for iron (Fe) copper (Cu) manganese (Mn), but with iron (Fe) showing generally high concentration factors. Highly significant (P<0.05) relationships were found between manganese (Mn) and Nickel (Ni), and, Zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu). Moreover, moderate correlations were observed between manganese (Mn) and iron (Fe) and chromium (Cr), indicating that manganese (Mn) is the most accumulated metal in the macro algae of the Red Sea. In spite of the level of trace metals in the macro algae of the Red Sea. In spite of the level of trace metals in the macro algae, dominance is moderate relative to other sea areas subjected to intensive pollution. That is, the results indicated a nonpolluted environment. (author)

  10. Analysis of sea level data sequences in Colombian pacific ands its relationship to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rangel, Ernesto Santiago; Montealegre; Jose Edgar

    2003-01-01

    By analyzing series of mean sea level (MSL), data for the towns of Tumaco (01 degrades N 78 degrades 44 minutes W, elevation: 0 meters) and Buenaventura (03 degrades 51 degrades N, 76 degrades 58 minutes W, elevation: 1 meter) the seasonal, intra-annual and inter-annual variability of the MSL are studied in the Colombian pacific, in connection with the el Nino-La Nina - southern oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The detection and the analysis of possible trends are examined in search of likely signal of global change in Colombia. This work concludes that the mean sea level (MSL) data for Tumaco and Buenaventura, are a good indicator, the first one, and a relatively acceptable indicator, the second, of the ENSO cycle, although of very low resolution during the La Nina episodes, in both cases. It was detected equally, a marked tendency for increasing of the mean sea level, approximately starting from the beginnings of the decade of the seventies, which could be related to the higher frequency of warm episodes. Although the longitude of the analyzed series doesn't allow arriving to conclusive results, the increasing tendency of the sea levels during the last twenty years could serve as an early warning in connection with possible manifestations of the global change in Colombia

  11. Fall-related hospitalisations of older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and other Australians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukaszyk, Caroline; Harvey, Lara A; Sherrington, Catherine; Close, Jacqueline Ct; Coombes, Julieann; Mitchell, Rebecca J; Moore, Robyn; Ivers, Rebecca

    2017-07-03

    To compare the socio-demographic characteristics and type of injury sustained, the use of hospital resources and rates of hospitalisation by injury type, and survival following fall injuries to older Aboriginal people and non-Indigenous Australian people hospitalised for fall-related injuries. Population-based retrospective cohort data linkage study. Setting, participants: New South Wales residents aged 50 years or more admitted to a public or private NSW hospital for a fall-related injury during 1 January 2003 - 31 December 2012. Proportions of patients with defined injury types, mean hospital length of stay (LOS), 30-day mortality, age-standardised hospitalisation rates and age-adjusted rate ratios, 28-day re-admission rates. There were 312 758 fall-related injury hospitalisations for 234 979 individuals; 2660 admissions (0.85%) were of Aboriginal people. The proportion of hospitalisations for fall-related fracture injuries was lower for Aboriginal than for non-Indigenous Australians (49% v 60% of fall-related hospitalisations; P Aboriginal patients was non-fracture injury to head or neck (19% of hospitalisations); for non-Indigenous patients it was hip fractures (18%). Age-adjusted LOS was lower for Aboriginal than for non-Indigenous patients (9.1 v 14.0 days; P Aboriginal people, fall injury hospitalisations increased at an annual rate of 5.8% (95% CI, 4.0-7.7%; P Aboriginal people and other older Australians, suggesting that different approaches are required to prevent and treat fall injuries.

  12. Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

    2017-12-01

    The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable

  13. A risk-factor analysis of medical litigation judgments related to fall injuries in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Insook; Won, Seonae; Lee, Mijin; Lee, Won

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to find out the risk factors through analysis of seven medical malpractice judgments related to fall injuries. The risk factors were analysed by using the framework that approaches falls from a systems perspective and comprised people, organisational or environmental factors, with each factor being comprised of subfactors. The risk factors found in each of the seven judgments were aggregated into one framework. The risk factors related to patients (i.e. the people factor) were age, pain, related disease, activities and functional status, urination state, cognitive function impairment, past history of fall, blood transfusion, sleep endoscopy state and uncooperative attitude. The risk factors related to the medical staff and caregivers (i.e. people factor) were observation negligence, no fall prevention activities and negligence in managing high-risk group for fall. Organisational risk factors were a lack of workforce, a lack of training, neglecting the management of the high-risk group, neglecting the management of caregivers and the absence of a fall prevention procedure. Regarding the environment, the risk factors were found to be the emergency room, chairs without a backrest and the examination table. Identifying risk factors is essential for preventing fall accidents, since falls are preventable patient-safety incidents. Falls do not happen as a result of a single risk factor. Therefore, a systems approach is effective to identify risk factors, especially organisational and environmental factors.

  14. Holocene relative sea level variations at the spit system Feddet (Denmark) resolved by ground-penetrating radar and geomorphological data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B

    Estimates of Holocene sea-level variations have been presented in a range of studies based on different approaches, including interpretation of internal beach ridge characteristics from ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and geomorphological data. We present GPR data and geomorphological observations...... of independent GPR and geomorphologic data collected across the recent and sub-recent beach ridge deposits. The data analyses include coastal topography, internal dips of beach ridge layers, and sea-level measurements. A clear change in characteristic layer dip is observed between beach face and upper shoreface...

  15. Examining Contextual Influences on Fall-Related Injuries Among Older Adults for Population Health Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Geoffrey J; Rodriguez, Hector P

    2015-12-01

    The objectives were to assess the associations between fall-related injuries (FRIs) treated in the emergency department (ED) among older adults in California and contextual county-level physical, social, and economic characteristics, and to assess how county-level economic conditions are associated with FRIs when controlling for other county-level factors. Data from 2008 California ED discharge, Medicare Impact File, and County Health Rankings were used. Random effects logistic regression models estimated contextual associations between county-level factors representing economic conditions, the built environment, community safety, access to care, and obesity with patient-level FRI treatment among 1,712,409 older adults, controlling for patient-level and hospital-level characteristics. Patient-level predictors of FRI treatment were consistent with previous studies not accounting for contextual associations. Larger and rural hospitals had higher odds of FRI treatment, while teaching and safety net hospitals had lower odds. Better county economic conditions were associated with greater odds (ß=0.73, P=0.001) and higher county-level obesity were associated with lower odds (ß=-0.37, P=0.004), but safer built environments (ß=-0.31, P=0.38) were not associated with FRI treatment. The magnitude of association between county-level economic conditions and FRI treatment attenuated with the inclusion of county-level obesity rates. FRI treatment was most strongly and consistently related to more favorable county economic conditions, suggesting differences in treatment or preferences for treatment for FRIs among older individuals in communities of varying resource levels. Using population health data on FRIs, policy makers may be able to remove barriers unique to local contexts when implementing falls prevention educational programs and built environment modifications.

  16. GHRSST Level 4 EUR Mediterranean Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily by Ifremer/CERSAT (France) using optimal...

  17. Wind-Driven Sea-Level Variation Influences Dynamics of Salt Marsh Vegation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairns, David; Bartholdy, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    Long-term variation of mean sea level has been considered the primary exogenous factor of vegetation dynamics in salt marshes. In this study, we address the importance of short-term, wind-induced rise of the sea surface in such biogeographic changes. There was an unusual opportunity for examining......, waterlogging of marsh soils, which has retarded ecological succession. To conclude, we stress the need for a multitemporal perspective that recognizes the significance of short-term sea-level fluctuations nested within long-term trends......) continuous sedimentation with spatial variability (2.0–4.0 mm yr-1), (3) increased frequency of over-marsh flooding events, and (4) contemporary dominance of Halimione portulacoides, indicating little progressive succession toward a later phase. Conventionally, recent eustatic sea-level rise was believed...... to drive the increased frequency of flooding and such retarded succession. Skallingen, however, has showed more or less equilibrated yearly rates between sea-level rise and surface accretion. This implies that the long-term, gradual sea-level rise alone might not be enough to explain the increased...

  18. Reducing serious fall-related injuries in acute hospitals: are low-low beds a critical success factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, Anna; Kamar, Jeannette; Tyndall, Tamara; Hill, Keith

    2013-01-01

    This article is a report of a study of associations between occurrence of serious fall-related injuries and implementation of low-low beds at The Northern Hospital, Victoria, Australia. A 9-year evaluation at The Northern Hospital found an important reduction in fall-related injuries after the 6-PACK falls prevention program was implemented. Low-low beds are a key component of the 6-PACK that aims to decrease fall-related injuries. A retrospective cohort study. Retrospective audit of The Northern Hospital inpatients admitted between 1999-2009. Changes in serious fall-related injuries throughout the period and associations with available low-low beds were analysed using Poisson regression. During the observation of 356,158 inpatients, there were 3946 falls and 1005 fall-related injuries of which 60 (5·9%) were serious (55 fractures and five subdural haematomas). Serious fall-related injuries declined significantly throughout the period. When there was one low-low bed to nine or more standard beds there was no statistically significant decrease in serious fall-related injuries. An important reduction only occurred when there was one low-low bed to three standard beds. The 6-PACK program has been in place since 2002 at The Northern Hospital. Throughout this time serious fall-related injuries have decreased. There appears to be an association between serious fall-related injuries and the number of available low-low beds. Threshold numbers of these beds may be required to achieve optimal usability and effectiveness. A randomized controlled trial is required to give additional evidence for use of low-low beds for injury prevention in hospitals. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Factors related to the high fall rate in long-term care residents with dementia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kosse, Nienke M.; de Groot, Maartje H.; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Hortobagyi, Tibor; Lamoth, Claudine J. C.

    Background: Falls in long-term care residents with dementia represent a costly but unresolved safety issue. The aim of the present study was to (1) determine the incidence of falls, fall-related injuries and fall circumstances, and (2) identify the relationship between patient characteristics and

  20. Coastal Sea Level from CryoSat-2 SARIn Altimetry in Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Idžanović, Martina; Ophaug, Vegard; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    Conventional (pulse-limited) altimeters determine the sea surface height with an accuracy of a few centimeters over the open ocean. Sea surface heights and tide-gauge sea level serve as each other’s buddy check. However, in coastal areas, altimetry suffers from numerous effects, which degrade its...... conventional altimeters. In this study, we explore the potential of CryoSat-2 to provide valid observations in the Norwegian coastal zone. We do this by comparing time series of CryoSat-2 sea level anomalies with time series of in situ sea level at 22 tide gauges, where the CryoSat-2 sea level anomalies...... are averaged in a 45-km area around each tide gauge. For all tide gauges, CryoSat-2 shows standard deviations of differences and correlations of 16 cm and 61%, respectively. We further identify the ocean tide and inverted barometer geophysical corrections as the most crucial, and note that a large amount...

  1. Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal drainage systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Titus, J G; Kuo, C Y; Gibbs, M J; LaRoche, T B; Webb, M K; Waddell, J O

    1987-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century, which would raise sea level a few feet and alter precipitation patterns. Both of these changes would have major impacts on the operation of coastal drainage systems. However, because sea level rise and climate change resulting from the greenhouse effect are still uncertain, most planners and engineers are ignoring the potential implications. Case studies of the potential impact on watersheds in Charleston, South Carolina, and Fort Walton Beach, Florida, suggest that the cost of designing a new system to accommodate a rise in sea level will sometimes be small compared with the retrofit cost that may ultimately be necessary if new systems are not designed for a rise. Rather than ignore the greenhouse effect until its consequences are firmly established, engineers and planners should evaluate whether it would be worthwhile to insure that new systems are not vulnerable to the risks of climate change and sea level rise.

  2. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  3. The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-06-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

  4. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Mediterranean Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  5. Estimation of sea level variations with GPS/GLONASS-reflectometry technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padokhin, A. M.; Kurbatov, G. A.; Andreeva, E. S.; Nesterov, I. A.; Nazarenko, M. O.; Berbeneva, N. A.; Karlysheva, A. V.

    2017-11-01

    In the present paper we study GNSS - reflectometry methods for estimation of sea level variations using a single GNSSreceiver, which are based on the multipath propagation effects caused by the reflection of navigational signals from the sea surface. Such multipath propagation results in the appearance of the interference pattern in the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) of GNSS signals at small satellite elevation angles, which parameters are determined by the wavelength of the navigational signal and height of the antenna phase center above the reflecting sea surface. In current work we used GPS and GLONASS signals and measurements at two working frequencies of both systems to study sea level variations which almost doubles the amount of observations compared to GPS-only tide gauge. For UNAVCO sc02 station and collocated Friday Harbor NOAA tide gauge we show good agreement between GNSS-reflectometry and traditional mareograph sea level data.

  6. Monthly Variations in Sea Level at the Island of Zanzibar

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trend in sea level. (9%) appeared ... There is a strong likelihood that physical processes other .... a bell-shaped curve. To avoid erroneous conclusions, residual analysis tests were carried ..... prediction of sea level, regardless of the units ...

  7. Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Perrette, Mahé; Vermeer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of global sea-level rise is one of the major challenges of climate science. While process-based models are still being improved to capture the complexity of the processes involved, semi-empirical models, exploiting the observed connection between global-mean sea level and global temperature and calibrated with data, have been developed as a complementary approach. Here we investigate whether twentieth century sea-level rise could have been predicted with such models given a knowledge of twentieth century global temperature increase. We find that either proxy or early tide gauge data do not hold enough information to constrain the model parameters well. However, in combination, the use of proxy and tide gauge sea-level data up to 1900 AD allows a good prediction of twentieth century sea-level rise, despite this rise being well outside the rates experienced in previous centuries during the calibration period of the model. The 90% confidence range for the linear twentieth century rise predicted by the semi-empirical model is 13–30 cm, whereas the observed interval (using two tide gauge data sets) is 14–26 cm. (letter)

  8. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  9. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D

    2017-05-18

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  10. Barrier island response to an elevated sea-level anomaly: Onslow Beach, North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theuerkauf, E. J.; Rodriguez, A. B.; Fegley, S. R.; Luettich, R.

    2012-12-01

    Variations in sea level over time scales ranging from hours to millennia influence coastal processes and evolution. At annual time scales, elevated sea-level anomalies produce coastal flooding and promote beach erosion. This study examines the coastal response of Onslow Beach, North Carolina to the summer 2009 East Coast sea-level anomaly. Onslow Beach is a 12-km-long wave-dominated barrier island with highly variable along-barrier morphology. The transgressive southern portion of the island is characterized by a narrow beach, low dunes, and multiple washover fans, while the regressive northern portion is characterized by a wide beach and continuous tall dunes. Hourly tide gauge data from adjacent NOAA stations (Beaufort and Wrightsville Beach) are used to determine the timing and extent of elevated water levels. The seasonal and longer term trends (relative sea level rise) are removed from both of the water level series and the sea-level anomaly is represented by a large residual between the observed and predicted water levels. Beach response is quantified using terrestrial laser scanning for morphology and from geoprobe cores to determine the maximum depth of erosion (MDOE). The mean high water (MHW) shoreline and dune toe are digitized from digital elevation models derived from the laser scans and analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). Landward (negative) movement of these contacts indicates erosion. Wave data collected from an Acoustic Wave and Current Meter (AWAC) located offshore of the southern end of Onslow Beach is used to characterize the wave regime throughout the study. Water level is elevated in the tide gauge data from June 2009 to March 2010. This sea-level anomaly corresponds with an increase in the maximum depth of erosion between 2009 and 2010. Landward movement of the MHW shoreline and the dunetoe increased during the period between September 2009 and May 2010 indicating an increase in beach erosion during the sea-level

  11. Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

  12. Vertical ground motion and historical sea-level records in Dakar (Senegal)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Raucoules, Daniel; Garcin, Manuel; Lavigne, Franck; Wöppelmann, Guy; Gravelle, Médéric; Da Sylva, Sylvestre; Meyssignac, Benoit

    2015-01-01

    With growing concerns regarding future impacts of sea-level in major coastal cities, the most accurate information is required regarding local sea-level changes with respect to the coast. Besides global and regional sea-level changes, local coastal vertical ground motions can substantially contribute to local changes in sea-level. In some cases, such ground motions can also limit the usefulness of tide-gauge records, which are a unique source of information to evaluate global sea-level changes before the altimetry era. Using satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry, this study aims at characterizing vertical coastal ground motion in Dakar (Senegal), where a unique century-long record in Africa has been rediscovered. Given the limited number of available images, we use a stacking procedure to compute ground motion velocities in the line of sight over 1992–2010. Despite a complex geology and a rapid population growth and development, we show that the city as a whole is unaffected by differential ground motions larger than 1 mm year −1 . Only the northern part of the harbor displays subsidence patterns after 2000, probably as a consequence of land reclamation works. However, these ground motions do not affect the historical tide gauge. Our results highlight the value of the historical sea-level records of Dakar, which cover a 100 year time-span in a tropical oceanic region of Africa, where little data are available for past sea-level reconstructions. (letter)

  13. Trends in fall-related injuries among older adults treated in emergency departments in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orces, Carlos H; Alamgir, Hasanat

    2014-12-01

    To examine national trends in fall-related injuries among older adults treated in emergency departments (ED) and project these injuries until the year 2030. The Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System was used to generate data on fall-related injuries treated in ED. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine the average annual change in injury rates over time. Fall-related injury and hospitalisation rates increased on average by 2% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.7%) and by 4% (95% CI 2.9% to 5.0%) per year, respectively. Assuming the increase in fall-related injury rates remains unchanged, the number of fall-related injuries may increase to 5.7 million by the year 2030. Fall-related injuries among older adults treated in ED increased in the USA during the study period. Moreover, a marked increase in the number of these injuries may occur over the next decades. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Compliant flooring to prevent fall-related injuries: a scoping review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachance, Chantelle C; Jurkowski, Michal P; Dymarz, Ania C; Mackey, Dawn C

    2016-08-16

    Fall-related injuries can have serious consequences for older adults, including increased risk of dependence in daily activities and mortality. Compliant flooring is a passive intervention that may reduce the incidence and severity of fall-related injuries in healthcare settings, including acute and long-term care, but few sites have implemented compliant flooring, in part because synthesised evidence about key performance aspects has not been available. We will conduct a scoping review to address the question: what is presented about the biomechanical efficacy, clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and workplace safety associated with compliant flooring systems that aim to prevent fall-related injuries? We will conduct a comprehensive and systematic literature search of academic databases (AgeLine, CINAHL, EBM Reviews, MEDLINE (Ovid), SportDiscus and Web of Science) and grey literature (clinical trial registries, theses/dissertations, abstracts/conference proceedings and relevant websites). 2 team members will independently screen records (first titles and abstracts, then full text) and extract data from included records. Numerical and narrative analyses will be presented by theme (biomechanical efficacy, clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, workplace safety). This scoping review responds to the information needs of healthcare decision-makers tasked with preventing fall-related injuries. This review will summarise evidence about compliant flooring as a potential intervention for preventing fall-related injuries in older adults and identify gaps in evidence and new avenues for research. Results will be especially useful in long-term care, but also applicable in acute care, assisted living and home care. We will disseminate the review's findings via open-access publications, conference presentations, a webinar, a Stakeholder Symposium and a Knowledge-to-Action Report. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not

  15. Examining the interplay of climate and low amplitude sea-level change on the distribution and volume of massive dolomitization: Zebbag Formation, Cretaceous, Southern Tunisia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Newport, Richard; Hollis, Cathy; Bodin, Stéphane

    2017-01-01

    During the Cretaceous, a humid global climate, calcitic seas, high relative sea-level and low amplitude changes in relative sea-level largely prevented large-scale dolomitization in many carbonate successions. However, the well-exposed shallow-water carbonate sediments of the Upper Albian–Lower T...

  16. Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from GRACE, steric-corrected altimetry, in situ bottom pressure records, and hydrographic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, W.; Lemoine, J.-M.; Zhong, M.; Hsu, H. T.

    2014-08-01

    An annual amplitude of ∼18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and steric-corrected altimetry from 2003 to 2011. The annual mass variations in the region dominate the mean SLV, and generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The annual steric component of the mean SLV is relatively small (mass-induced SLV. In situ bottom pressure records at the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. In addition, the horizontal water mass flux of the Red Sea estimated from GRACE and steric-corrected altimetry is validated by hydrographic observations.

  17. The disposal of low-level radioactive waste into the sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saruhashi, Katsuko

    1979-01-01

    Disposal of low-level radioactive wastes is made both on land and in sea. Though the land disposal has been already carried out in the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R., it is impossible in the narrow land of Japan. In the United States, the wastes solidified with cement in drums were previously abandoned in deep seas of the Pacific and the Atlantic. This is no longer done presently; instead, the land disposal is employed due to its lower costs. In European countries, the sea disposal is performed under OECDNEA, trial disposal in 1961 and full-scale disposal since 1967, in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, in Japan, test sea disposal will be carried out in the near future in deep sea of the northern Pacific, the important sea area for fisheries. The international trends of the deep sea disposal of low-level wastes and the correspondent trends of the same in Japan, in the past years are described. (J.P.N.)

  18. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

  19. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars; Engqvist, Anders; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias

    2009-01-01

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about ± 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  20. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-01-15

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  1. Reply to comment by E. Bard et al. on "Younger Dryas sea level and meltwater pulse 1B recorded in Barbados reef crest coral Acropora palmata" by N. A. Abdul et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortlock, Richard A.; Abdul, Nicole A.; Wright, James D.; Fairbanks, Richard G.

    2016-12-01

    Abdul et al. (2016) presented a detailed record of sea level at Barbados (13.9-9 kyr B.P.) tightly constraining the timing and amplitude during the Younger Dryas and Meltwater Pulse 1B (MWP-1B) based on U-Th dated reef crest coral species Acropora palmata. The Younger Dryas slow stand and the large (14 m) rapid sea level jump are not resolved in the Tahiti record. Tahiti sea level estimates are remarkably close to the Barbados sea level curve between 13.9 and 11.6 kyr but fall below the Barbados sea level curve for a few thousand years following MWP-1B. By 9 kyr the Tahiti sea level estimates again converge with the Barbados sea level curve. Abdul et al. (2016) concluded that Tahiti reefs at the core sites did not keep up with intervals of rapidly rising sea level during MWP-1B. We counter Bard et al. (2016) by showing (1) that there is no evidence for a hypothetical fault in Oistins Bay affecting one of the Barbados coring locations, (2) that the authors confuse the rare occurrences of A. palmata at depths >5 m with the "thickets" of A. palmata fronds representing the reef-crest facies, and (3) that uncertainties in depth habitat proxies largely account for differences in Barbados and Tahiti sea level differences curves with A. palmata providing the most faithful proxy. Given the range in Tahiti paleodepth uncertainties at the cored sites, the most parsimonious explanation remains that Tahiti coralgal ridges did not keep up with the sea level rise of MWP-1B.

  2. Coastal wetlands, sea level, and the dimensions of geomorphic resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Jonathan D.

    2018-03-01

    Geomorphic system resilience is often perceived as an intrinsic property of system structure and interactions but is also related to idiosyncratic place and history factors. The importance of geographical and historical circumstances makes it difficult to generate categorical statements about geomorphic resilience. However, network-based analyses of system structure can be used to determine the dynamical stability (= resilience) based on generally applicable relationships and to determine scenarios of stability or instability. These provide guidelines for assessing place and history factors to assess resilience. A model of coastal wetlands is analyzed, based on interactions among relative sea level, wetland surface elevation, hydroperiod, vegetation, and sedimentation. The system is generally (but not always) dynamically unstable and non-resilient. Because of gradients of environmental factors and patchy distributions of microtopography and vegetation, a coastal wetland landscape may have extensive local variations in stability/resilience and in the key relationships that trigger instabilities. This is illustrated by a case study where dynamically unstable fragmentation is found in two nearby coastal wetlands in North Carolina's Neuse River estuary-Otter Creek Mouth and Anderson Creek. Neither is keeping pace with relative sea level rise, and both show unstable state transitions within the wetland system; but locally stable relationships exist within the wetland systems.

  3. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Morris, James T.; Mudd, Simon M.; Temmerman, Stijn

    2010-01-01

    Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.

  4. Pre operational levels of 137Cs and 90Sr in seawater and sea foods in Gulf of Mannar near Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vijayakumar, B.; Thomas, G.; Rajan, P.S.; Selvi, B.S.; Balamurugan, M.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathy, R.M.

    2014-01-01

    The first unit of Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project (KKNPP) attained first criticality on July 13, 2013 and synchronized to the grid on October 22, 2013. The first unit achieved the full rated power of 1000 MWe on June 7, 2014. The second unit of KKNPP is under advanced stage of commissioning and hot run of the plant is expected shortly. Commercial operational of the first unit is expected soon. It is imperative to establish the pre operational levels of Fall out nuclides like 137 Cs and 90 Sr in and around Kudankulam site, especially sea waters and sea food samples as these nuclides are produced in the reactor as fission products. Nevertheless, they are retained in the fuel matrix itself as the reactors host a multiple layered barrier to prevent the escape of these radionuclides into the environment by adopting the philosophy of defense in depth. Benchmarking the levels of these nuclides in the aquatic domain will help in future comparison of the levels of these nuclides after the plants start operation in addition to generating the regional database in south eastern tip of the sea

  5. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

    2012-08-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

  6. Integrating Non-Tidal Sea Level data from altimetry and tide gauges for coastal sea level prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to integrate Non-Tidal Sea Level (NSL) from the joint TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimetry with tide gauge data at the west and north coast of the United Kingdom for coastal sea level prediction. The temporal correlation coefficient between altimetric...... NSLs and tide gauge data reaches a maximum higher than 90% for each gauge. The results show that the multivariate regression approach can efficiently integrate the two types of data in the coastal waters of the area. The Multivariate Regression Model is established by integrating the along-track NSL...... from the joint TOPEX/Jason-1/Jason-2 altimeters with that from eleven tide gauges. The model results give a maximum hindcast skill of 0.95, which means maximum 95% of NSL variance can be explained by the model. The minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSe) between altimetric observations and model...

  7. Future rise of the sea level: consequences and strategies on the shoreline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teisson, C.

    1991-11-01

    The Mean Sea Level may rise in a near future due to the warming of the atmosphere associated with the 'greenhouse effect'. The alarming estimations issued in the 1980's (several meters of surelevation in the next centuries) are now lowered: the ice sheets, the melting of which could induce such a rise, do not present signs of instability. A rise from 30 to 50 cm is likely to occur in the middle of the next century; there is a probability of 25% that the rise of sea level relative to the year 1980 stands beyond 1 meter by 2100. The consequences of such a rise on the shoreline and the maritime works are reviewed, and planning strategies are discussed. This study has been performed in the framework of a convention between EDF-LNH and the Sea State Secretary (Service Technique des Ports Maritimes et Voies Navigables) 41 refs., 31 figs., 6 tabs

  8. Integrated analysis of beach ridge and lagoon systems as indicator of sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Lasse; Hede, Mikkel U.; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Morigi, Caterina; Johannessen, Peter N.; Nielsen, Lars; Clemmensen, Lars B.; Nielsen, Lars H.; Pejrup, Morten

    2015-04-01

    Beach ridges and lagoons are common features of the modern coastal landscape in much of Denmark and represent an important part of the Holocene raised marine deposits. We here present our results from investigations into the possibilities of retrieving continuous relative sea-level (RSL) information from these sedimentary archives, as facilitated by the analysis of surface morphology, coring, subsurface imaging, absolute chronology, and modern analogues. The island of Samsø (55˚51'N, 10˚36'E) was chosen as a case study example. While each of the used archives merely covers a part of the mid to late Holocene developments, their joint analysis allows identifying and separating periods of rapid RSL rise, stability and fall over most of the island's marine stage. We present possible correlations of the data from the lagoons with data from a wide beach-ridge system and suggest causal relations of the RSL reconstruction with the spatial arrangements of marine and glacial landforms on Samsø. The integrated use of a geographical perspective combined with geological precision and methodology has proven to be of great value for understanding temporal, spatial, and process relations in the investigated coastal environment. The study stresses the value of analyzing genetically independent though complementary sedimentary archives to retrieve more complete and potentially more robust results. The presented approach may be useful in microtidal, sediment-surplus environments with a transgressive-regressive Holocene RSL history.

  9. Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change depends on the increase of several different atmospheric pollutants. While long term global warming will be determined mainly by carbon dioxide, warming in the next few decades will depend to a large extent on short lived climate pollutants (SLCP). Reducing emissions of SLCPs could contribute to lower the global mean surface temperature by 0.5 °C already by 2050 (Shindell et al. 2012). Furthermore, the warming effect of one of the most potent SLCPs, black carbon (BC), may have been underestimated in the past. Bond et al. (2013) presents a new best estimate of the total BC radiative forcing (RF) of 1.1 W/m2 (90 % uncertainty bounds of 0.17 to 2.1 W/m2) since the beginning of the industrial era. BC is however never emitted alone and cooling aerosols from the same sources offset a majority of this RF. In the wake of calls for mitigation of SLCPs it is important to study other aspects of the climate effect of SLCPs. One key impact of climate change is sea-level rise (SLR). In a recent study, the effect of SLCP mitigation scenarios on SLR is examined. Hu et al (2013) find a substantial effect on SLR from mitigating SLCPs sharply, reducing SLR by 22-42% by 2100. We choose a different approach focusing on emission pulses and analyse a metric based on sea level rise so as to further enlighten the SLR consequences of SLCPs. We want in particular to understand the time dynamics of SLR impacts caused by SLCPs compared to other greenhouse gases. The most commonly used physical based metrics are GWP and GTP. We propose and evaluate an additional metric: The global sea-level rise potential (GSP). The GSP is defined as the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a forcer to the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a CO2. GSP is evaluated and compared to GWP and GTP using a set of climate forcers chosen to cover the whole scale of atmospheric perturbation life times (BC, CH4, N2O, CO2 and SF6). The study

  10. Response of the Apodi-Mossoró estuary-incised valley system (NE Brazil to sea-level fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helenice Vital

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the Quaternary sea level changes in the Apodi-Mossoró Estuary and adjacent shelf, Northeastern Brazil, based on the analysis of high-resolution seismic profiles, integrated with echosounder, SRTM and satellite image data. We use these data to develop a relative stratigraphy. An incised-valley extending from the Apodi-Mossoró Estuary onto the shelf dominates the investigated area. In very shallow waters (down to 10 m depth the channel lies mainly in a NW-SE direction, changing to NE-SW in waters below10 m, in the form of a J-shaped valley. The southern flank of the shallow channel presents an abrupt morphology, probably determined by a residual scarp due to neotectonic reactivation of a pre-existing fault. This incised-valley can be correlated with a former river valley formed during the late Pleistocene fall in sea-level. The base-level change related to this drop in sea level can be regionally expressed on seismic lines as a laterally-continuous stratigraphic surface named Horizon I, interpreted as representing the sub-aerial exposure of the continental shelf. Many incised valleys were excavated on this exposed shelf, including that of the Apodi-Mossoró Estuary and its incised valley system. This incised valley has lain buried since the Holocene transgression. The Holocene sediments present sub-horizontal layers, or they have filled the incised valley with oblique features.Este estudo utiliza a integração de dados sísmicos de alta resolução, batimétricos, SRTM e imagens de satélite para desenvolvimento da estratigrafia relativa visando entender as variações do nível do mar durante o Quaternário no estuário do rio Apodi-Mossoró e plataforma adjacente, nordeste do Brasil. A principal feição identificada foi um canal submerso, na plataforma interna, parcialmente preenchido, provavelmente relacionado com o sistema de vales incisos formado durante o rebaixamento do nível do mar no Pleistoceno. O canal

  11. Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P; Riva, Riccardo E M; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C

    2016-11-22

    Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 °C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

  12. Late quaternary sea level changes of Gabes coastal plain and shelf ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    site to study coastal changes at time scale, rang- ing from ... regional shoreline during MIS 5c (100 ka) and MIS .... Remote sensing drainage network anal- ... Around Gabes city, the Pleistocene deposits are ... tems are well developed and fluvial discharges are ..... relative sea-level rise: A case study from trab el makhadha.

  13. History of Aral Sea level variability and current scientific debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cretaux, Jean-François; Letolle, René; Bergé-Nguyen, Muriel

    2013-11-01

    The Aral Sea has shrunk drastically over the past 50 years, largely due to water abstraction from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for land irrigation. Over a longer timescale, Holocene palaeolimnological reconstruction of variability in water levels of the Aral Sea since 11,700 BP indicates a long history of alternating phases of regression and transgression, which have been attributed variously to climate, tectonic and anthropogenic forcing. The hydrological history of the Aral Sea has been investigated by application of a variety of scientific approaches, including archaeology, palaeolimnological palaeoclimate reconstruction, geophysics, sedimentology, and more recently, space science. Many issues concerning lake level variability over the Holocene and more recent timescales, and the processes that drive the changes, are still a matter for active debate. Our aim in this article is to review the current debates regarding key issues surrounding the causes and magnitude of Aral Sea level variability on a variety of timescales from months to thousands of years. Many researchers have shown that the main driving force of Aral Sea regressions and transgressions is climate change, while other authors have argued that anthropogenic forcing is the main cause of Aral Sea water level variations over the Holocene. Particular emphasis is made on contributions from satellite remote sensing data in order to improve our understanding of the influence of groundwater on the current hydrological water budget of the Aral Sea since 2005. Over this period of time, water balance computation has been performed and has shown that the underground water inflow to the Aral Sea is close to zero with an uncertainty of 3 km3/year.

  14. Guiding Users to Sea Level Change Data Through Content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Huang, T.; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Boeck, A.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is an immersive and innovative web portal for sea level change research that addresses the needs of diverse audiences, from scientists across disparate disciplines to the general public to policy makers and businesses. Since sea level change research involves vast amounts of data from multiple fields, it becomes increasingly important to come up with novel and effective ways to guide users to the data they need. News articles published on the portal contains links to relevant data. The Missions section highlights missions and projects as well as provide a logical grouping of the data. Tools available on the portal, such as the Data Analysis Tool, a data visualization and high-performance environment for sea level analysis, and the Virtual Earth System Laboratory, a 3D simulation application, describes and links to the source data. With over 30K Facebook followers and over 23K Twitter follower, the portal outreach team also leverages social media to guide users to relevant data. This presentation focuses on how the portal uses news articles, mission and project pages, tools, and social media to connect users to the data.

  15. Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

  16. Resilience of Infrastructure Systems to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Areas: Impacts, Adaptation Measures, and Implementation Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Azevedo de Almeida

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Expansive areas of low elevation in many densely populated coastal areas are at elevated risk of storm surges and flooding due to torrential precipitation, as a result of sea level rise. These phenomena could have catastrophic impacts on coastal communities and result in the destruction of critical infrastructure, disruption of economic activities and salt water contamination of the water supply. The objective of the study presented in this paper was to identify various impacts of sea level rise on civil infrastructures in coastal areas and examine the adaptation measures suggested in the existing literature. To this end, a systemic review of the existing literature was conducted in order to identify a repository of studies addressing sea level rise impacts and adaptation measures in the context of infrastructure systems. The study focused on three infrastructure sectors: water and wastewater, energy, and road transportation. The collected information was then analyzed in order to identify different categories of sea level rise impacts and corresponding adaptation measures. The findings of the study are threefold: (1 the major categories of sea level rise impacts on different infrastructure systems; (2 measures for protection, accommodation, and retreat in response to sea level rise impacts; and (3 challenges related to implementing adaptation measures.

  17. Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

  18. Holocene sea-level changes in King George Island, West Antarctica, by virtue of geomorphological coastal evidences and diatom assemblages of sediment sections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poleshchuk, Ksenia; Verkulich, Sergey; Pushina, Zina; Jozhikov, Ilya

    2015-04-01

    A new curve of relative sea-level change is presented for the Fildes peninsula, King George Island, West Antarctic. This work is based on renewed paleogeography data, including coastal geomorphological evidence, diatom assemblages of lakes bottom sediments and radiocarbon datings of organics. The new data were obtained in several sections of quaternary sediments and groups of terraces, and allows us to expand and improve relevant conception about relative sea level changes in the King George Island region. The new radiocarbon datings of organics (mosses and shells) allows reconstructing Holocene conditions that maintain and cause the sea-level changes. Sea diatom assemblages of Dlinnoye lake bottom sediment core (that complies period about 8000 years B.P.) mark altitude of marine water penetrated into the lake. The altitudes of shell remains, which have certain life habits and expect specific salinity and depth conditions, coupled with their absolute datings, indicate the probable elevation of the past sea level. The Mid-Holocene marine transgression reached its maximum level of 18-20 m by 5760 years B.P. The transgression influenced the deglaciation of the Fildes peninsula and environment conditions integrally. The ratio of glacio-isostatic adjustment velocity and Holocene transgression leaded to the decrease of relative sea level during the Late Holocene excluding the short period of rising between 2000 and 1300 years B.P. Comparing this data with the curve for Bunger oasis, East Antarctica, introduced earlier gives an interesting result. Despite the maximum altitudes of relative sea-level rise in King George region were higher and occurred later than in Bunger oasis region, the short-term period of Late Holocene sea-level rising contemporizes. Besides that, this work allow to realize a correlation between regions of Antarctica and adjacent territory. That, in turn, lets answer the question of tectonic and eustatic factors ratio and their contribution to the

  19. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats inc...

  20. Diurnal variations of serum erythropoietin at sea level and altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, T; Poulsen, T D; Fogh-Andersen, N

    1996-01-01

    in 2, 3 diphosphoglycerate. After 64 h at altitude, six of the nine subjects had down-regulated their serum-EPO concentrations so that median values were three times above those at sea level. These six subjects had significant diurnal variations of serum-EPO concentration at sea level; the nadir......This study tested the hypothesis that the diurnal variations of serum-erythropoietin concentration (serum-EPO) observed in normoxia also exist in hypoxia. The study also attempted to investigate the regulation of EPO production during sustained hypoxia. Nine subjects were investigated at sea level...... and during 4 days at an altitude of 4350 m. Median sea level serum-EPO concentration was 6 (range 6-13) U.l-1. Serum-EPO concentration increased after 18 and 42 h at altitude, [58 (range 39-240) and 54 (range 36-340) U.l-1, respectively], and then decreased after 64 and 88 h at altitude [34 (range 18...

  1. Fall-related injuries among Canadian seniors, 2005-2013: an analysis of the Canadian Community Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, M T; Chang, V C; Kuran, N; Thompson, W

    2015-09-01

    We describe the epidemiology and trends of fall-related injuries among Canadian seniors aged 65 years and older by sex and age, as well as the circumstances and consequences of their injuries. We analyzed nationally representative data from the 2005, 2009/2010 and 2013 samples of the Canadian Community Health Survey to calculate the number and rates of fall-related injuries for each survey year. Where possible, we combined data from two or more samples to estimate the proportion of fall-related injuries by type of injury, part of body injured, type of activity and type of treatment. The rate of fall-related injuries among seniors increased from 49.4 to 58.8 per 1000 population between 2005 and 2013, during which the number of fall-related injuries increased by 54% overall. Women had consistently higher rates than men across all survey years, while rates increased with advancing age. The upward trend in fall-related injury rates was more prominent among women and younger age groups. The most common type of injury was broken or fractured bones (37%), and the shoulder or upper arm (16%) was the most commonly injured body part. Many fall-related injuries occurred while walking on a surface other than snow or ice (45%). Over 70% of seniors seeking treatment for their injuries visited a hospital emergency department. Given the increase in both the number and rates of fall-related injuries over time, there is a need to continue monitoring trends and injury patterns associated with falls.

  2. Head Trauma from Falling Increases Subsequent Emergency Department Visits More Than Other Fall-Related Injuries in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southerland, Lauren T; Stephens, Julie A; Robinson, Shari; Falk, James; Phieffer, Laura; Rosenthal, Joseph A; Caterino, Jeffrey M

    2016-04-01

    To determine whether fall-related injuries affect return to the ED after the initial visit. Retrospective chart review. Academic Level 1 trauma center ED. Individuals aged 65 and older evaluated for a fall from standing height or less and discharged (N = 263, average age 77, 70% female). After institutional review board approval, electronic medical record data were queried. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with risk of returning to the ED within 90 days. Injuries included fractures (45%, n = 117); head trauma (22%, n = 58); abrasions, lacerations, or contusions (34%, n = 88); and none (22%, n = 57). Emergency care was frequently required, with 13 (5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.3-7.6%) returning within 72 hours, 35 (13%, 95% CI = 9.2-17%] within 30 days, and 57 (22%, 95% CI = 17-27%) within 90 days. Univariately, the odds of returning to the ED within 90 days was more than two times as high for those with head trauma as for those without (odds ratio = 2.66). This remained significant in the multivariable model, which controlled for Charlson Comorbidity Index, fractures, soft tissue injuries, and ED observation unit use. More than one-third of older adults with minor head trauma from a fall will need to return to the ED in the following 90 days. These individuals should receive close attention from primary care providers. The link between minor head trauma and ED recidivism is a new finding. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  3. Tides, surges and mean sea-level

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pugh, D. T

    1987-01-01

    .... Interest in mean sea-level changes has recently been focused on the possibility of significant increases over the coming century as a result of global warming. Examples of applications from North America, Europe and other parts of the world are included.

  4. [Impact of fall risk and fear of falling on mobility of independently living senior citizens transitioning to frailty: screening results concerning fall prevention in the community].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, J; Dapp, U; Laub, S; von Renteln-Kruse, W

    2007-08-01

    There is a strong relation between mobility, walking safety and living independently in old age. People with walking problems suffer from fear of falling and tend to restrict their mobility and performance level in the community environment--even before falls occur. This study was planned to test the validity and prognostic value of a fall risk screening instrument ("Sturz-Risiko-Check") that has already shown its feasibility, acceptance and reliability, targeting independently living senior citizens. The study sample was recruited from a sheltered housing complex in Hamburg (with written consent). Persons with need of professional care ("Pflegestufe" in Germany) were excluded. The residents were asked to fill in the multidimensional questionnaire ("Sturz-Risiko- Check"). In a second step, a trained nurse asked the participants in a phone call about their competence in the instrumental activities of daily living (I-ADL mod. from Lawton, Brody 1969) and about their usual mobility performance level (e.g. frequency and distance of daily walks, use of public transport). According to the number and weight of self-reported risk factors for falling, three groups: "low fall risk", "medium fall risk" and "high fall risk" were classified. Finally, this classification was re-tested after one year, asking for falls and fall related injuries. A total of 112 senior citizens without need of personal care, living in a sheltered housing facility were asked to participate. Acceptance was high (76.1%). Self-reported data from 79 participants concerning falls, fall-risk, mobility and instrumental activities of daily living were included in the statistical analyses. Mean age was 78 (64 to 93) years and associated by a high percentage of women (75.9%) in this sample. The older participants reported 0 to 13 different factors (mean 5) related to a high risk of future falls. Most participants (78.5%) quit cycling because of fear of falling. There was a high incidence in the study sample

  5. Diurnal variations of serum erythropoietin at sea level and altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, T; Poulsen, T D; Fogh-Andersen, N

    1996-01-01

    in 2, 3 diphosphoglycerate. After 64 h at altitude, six of the nine subjects had down-regulated their serum-EPO concentrations so that median values were three times above those at sea level. These six subjects had significant diurnal variations of serum-EPO concentration at sea level; the nadir...

  6. Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

    2013-12-01

    It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption

  7. Late Holocene higher sea level and its radiocarbon dates in Okierabu-jima, Ryukyus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koba, Motoharu; Omoto, Kunio; Takahashi, Tatsuo.

    1980-01-01

    Okierabu-jima of the Ryukyu Islands, which is a poly-terraced Pleistocene raised coral reef island, doesn't have a Holocene raised coral reef, but coastal erosional features showing higher sea levels in Holocene. The authors obtained some data indicating the period of one of the Holocene higher sea levels. All radiocarbon dates concerning Okierabu-jima's Holocene sea-level changes are plotted on the date-height coordinates. The paleo sea level between 5000 and 2000 y. B. P. lies above the broken line drawn from 6 m below to 2.18 m above the present sea level. The period of the highest sea level in Holocene seems to be about 3000 to 2000 y. B. P. in this island. Its height is presumably 2.4 m a. s. l. derived on an average from heights of stacks and coastal benches in the almost all coasts of the island (Koba, 1974). Beach rocks were already formed at the landward extremity of the reef flat corresponding to the almost present sea level about 1300 y. B. P. (author)

  8. Mean relative sea level rise along the coasts of the China Seas from mid-20th to 21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nan; Han, Guoqi; Yang, Jingsong

    2018-01-01

    Mean relative sea level (MRSL) rise has caused more frequent flooding in many parts of the world. The MRSL rise varies substantially from place to place. Here we use tide-gauge data and satellite measurements to examine past MRSL trends for the coasts of the China Seas. We then combine climate model output and satellite observations to provide MRSL projections in the 21st century. The MRSL trend based on tide-gauge data shows substantial regional variations, from 1 to 5 mm/yr. The vertical land motion (VLM) based on altimetry and tide-gauge (ATG) data indicates large land subsidence at some tide-gauge locations, consistent with the Global Positioning Systems (GPS)-based VLM but different significantly from small uplift estimated by a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model, which suggests other important factors causing the VLM instead of the GIA process. When GPS- or ATG-based VLM estimates are used, the projected MRSL rise between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 at tide-gauge sites varies from 60 to 130 cm under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our projections are significantly larger than those of IPCC and other literature, as a result of accounting for the land subsidence derived from observations. Steric and dynamic ocean effects and land-ice melt effects are comparable (about 30 cm each) and do not vary much over the tide-gauge locations. The VLM effect varies from -10 to 60 cm. The projections between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under RCP4.5 show a similar spatial distribution to that under RCP8.5, with a smaller amount of rise by 18 cm on average for this region.

  9. Exploring mechanisms of compaction in salt-marsh sediments using Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brain, Matthew J.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Vane, Christopher H.; Cahill, Niamh; Hill, Troy D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Horton, Benjamin P.

    2017-07-01

    Salt-marsh sediments provide precise and near-continuous reconstructions of Common Era relative sea level (RSL). However, organic and low-density salt-marsh sediments are prone to compaction processes that cause post-depositional distortion of the stratigraphic column used to reconstruct RSL. We compared two RSL reconstructions from East River Marsh (Connecticut, USA) to assess the contribution of mechanical compression and biodegradation to compaction of salt-marsh sediments and their subsequent influence on RSL reconstructions. The first, existing reconstruction ('trench') was produced from a continuous sequence of basal salt-marsh sediment and is unaffected by compaction. The second, new reconstruction is from a compaction-susceptible core taken at the same location. We highlight that sediment compaction is the only feasible mechanism for explaining the observed differences in RSL reconstructed from the trench and core. Both reconstructions display long-term RSL rise of ∼1 mm/yr, followed by a ∼19th Century acceleration to ∼3 mm/yr. A statistically-significant difference between the records at ∼1100 to 1800 CE could not be explained by a compression-only geotechnical model. We suggest that the warmer and drier conditions of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) resulted in an increase in sediment compressibility during this time period. We adapted the geotechnical model by reducing the compressive strength of MCA sediments to simulate this softening of sediments. 'Decompaction' of the core reconstruction with this modified model accounted for the difference between the two RSL reconstructions. Our results demonstrate that compression-only geotechnical models may be inadequate for estimating compaction and post-depositional lowering of susceptible organic salt-marsh sediments in some settings. This has important implications for our understanding of the drivers of sea-level change. Further, our results suggest that future climate changes may make salt

  10. Dietary patterns associated with fall-related fracture in elderly Japanese: a population based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monma, Yasutake; Niu, Kaijun; Iwasaki, Koh; Tomita, Naoki; Nakaya, Naoki; Hozawa, Atsushi; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Takayama, Shin; Seki, Takashi; Takeda, Takashi; Yaegashi, Nobuo; Ebihara, Satoru; Arai, Hiroyuki; Nagatomi, Ryoichi; Tsuji, Ichiro

    2010-06-01

    Diet is considered an important factor for bone health, but is composed of a wide variety of foods containing complex combinations of nutrients. Therefore we investigated the relationship between dietary patterns and fall-related fractures in the elderly. We designed a population-based prospective survey of 1178 elderly people in Japan in 2002. Dietary intake was assessed with a 75-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), from which dietary patterns were created by factor analysis from 27 food groups. The frequency of fall-related fracture was investigated based on insurance claim records from 2002 until 2006. The relationship between the incidence of fall-related fracture and modifiable factors, including dietary patterns, were examined. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to examine the relationships between dietary patterns and incidence of fall-related fracture with adjustment for age, gender, Body Mass Index (BMI) and energy intake. Among 877 participants who agreed to a 4 year follow-up, 28 suffered from a fall-related fracture. Three dietary patterns were identified: mainly vegetable, mainly meat and mainly traditional Japanese. The moderately confirmed (see statistical methods) groups with a Meat pattern showed a reduced risk of fall-related fracture (Hazard ratio = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.13 - 0.94) after adjustment for age, gender, BMI and energy intake. The Vegetable pattern showed a significant risk increase (Hazard ratio = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.03 - 6.90) after adjustment for age, gender and BMI. The Traditional Japanese pattern had no relationship to the risk of fall-related fracture. The results of this study have the potential to reduce fall-related fracture risk in elderly Japanese. The results should be interpreted in light of the overall low meat intake of the Japanese population.

  11. Dietary patterns associated with fall-related fracture in elderly Japanese: a population based prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaegashi Nobuo

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diet is considered an important factor for bone health, but is composed of a wide variety of foods containing complex combinations of nutrients. Therefore we investigated the relationship between dietary patterns and fall-related fractures in the elderly. Methods We designed a population-based prospective survey of 1178 elderly people in Japan in 2002. Dietary intake was assessed with a 75-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ, from which dietary patterns were created by factor analysis from 27 food groups. The frequency of fall-related fracture was investigated based on insurance claim records from 2002 until 2006. The relationship between the incidence of fall-related fracture and modifiable factors, including dietary patterns, were examined. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to examine the relationships between dietary patterns and incidence of fall-related fracture with adjustment for age, gender, Body Mass Index (BMI and energy intake. Results Among 877 participants who agreed to a 4 year follow-up, 28 suffered from a fall-related fracture. Three dietary patterns were identified: mainly vegetable, mainly meat and mainly traditional Japanese. The moderately confirmed (see statistical methods groups with a Meat pattern showed a reduced risk of fall-related fracture (Hazard ratio = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.13 - 0.94 after adjustment for age, gender, BMI and energy intake. The Vegetable pattern showed a significant risk increase (Hazard ratio = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.03 - 6.90 after adjustment for age, gender and BMI. The Traditional Japanese pattern had no relationship to the risk of fall-related fracture. Conclusions The results of this study have the potential to reduce fall-related fracture risk in elderly Japanese. The results should be interpreted in light of the overall low meat intake of the Japanese population.

  12. Genetic Programming for Sea Level Predictions in an Island Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Ghorbani

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of sea-level are important for geodetic applications, navigation, coastal, industrial and tourist activities. In the current work, the Genetic Programming (GP and artificial neural networks (ANNs were applied to forecast half-daily and daily sea-level variations from 12 hours to 5 days ahead. The measurements at the Cocos (Keeling Islands in the Indian Ocean were used for training and testing of the employed artificial intelligence techniques. A comparison was performed of the predictions from the GP model and the ANN simulations. Based on the comparison outcomes, it was found that the Genetic Programming approach can be successfully employed in forecasting of sea level variations.

  13. De novo characterization of fall dormant and nondormant alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) leaf transcriptome and identification of candidate genes related to fall dormancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Senhao; Shi, Yinghua; Cheng, Ningning; Du, Hongqi; Fan, Wenna; Wang, Chengzhang

    2015-01-01

    Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) is one of the most widely cultivated perennial forage legumes worldwide. Fall dormancy is an adaptive character related to the biomass production and winter survival in alfalfa. The physiological, biochemical and molecular mechanisms causing fall dormancy and the related genes have not been well studied. In this study, we sequenced two standard varieties of alfalfa (dormant and non-dormant) at two time points and generated approximately 160 million high quality paired-end sequence reads using sequencing by synthesis (SBS) technology. The de novo transcriptome assembly generated a set of 192,875 transcripts with an average length of 856 bp representing about 165.1 Mb of the alfalfa leaf transcriptome. After assembly, 111,062 (57.6%) transcripts were annotated against the NCBI non-redundant database. A total of 30,165 (15.6%) transcripts were mapped to 323 Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways. We also identified 41,973 simple sequence repeats, which can be used to generate markers for alfalfa, and 1,541 transcription factors were identified across 1,350 transcripts. Gene expression between dormant and non-dormant alfalfa at different time points were performed, and we identified several differentially expressed genes potentially related to fall dormancy. The Gene Ontology and pathways information were also identified. We sequenced and assembled the leaf transcriptome of alfalfa related to fall dormancy, and also identified some genes of interest involved in the fall dormancy mechanism. Thus, our research focused on studying fall dormancy in alfalfa through transcriptome sequencing. The sequencing and gene expression data generated in this study may be used further to elucidate the complete mechanisms governing fall dormancy in alfalfa.

  14. New constraints on late Holocene eustatic sea-level changes from Mahé, Seychelles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, Sarah A.; Long, Antony J.; Milne, Glenn A.; Bryant, Charlotte L.; Thomas, Alexander L.

    2015-05-01

    This study provides new estimates of globally integrated ice sheet melt during the late Holocene (since 4 ka BP) from Seychelles in the western Indian Ocean, a tectonically stable, far field location where the necessary Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) correction is small and is relatively insensitive to predictions using different Earth viscosity profiles. We compare sea level data from Seychelles to estimates of eustasy from two GIA models, ICE-5G and EUST3, which represent end-members in the quantity of global melt during the late Holocene. We use data from a range of coastal environments including fringing reef, present day beaches, fossil plateau and mangrove deposits on the largest island of the Seychelles archipelago, Mahé to reconstruct relative sea-level changes. Our data suggest that extensive coastal deposits of carbonate-rich sands that fringe the west coast formed in the last 2 ka and the horizontal nature of their surface topography suggests RSL stability during this period. Mangrove sediments preserved behind these deposits and in river mouths date to c. 2 ka and indicate that RSL was between -2 m and present during this interval. Correcting the reconstructed sea level data using a suite of optimal GIA models based on the two ice models mentioned above and a large number (c. 350) of Earth viscosity models gives a result that is consistent with the sedimentological constraints. When uncertainties in both model results and data are considered, it is possible to rule out eustatic sea levels below c. 2 m and more than a few decimetres above present during the past two millennia. This uncertainty is dominated by error in the reconstructions rather than the model predictions. We note, however, that our estimates of eustasy are more compatible with the EUST3 model compared to the ICE-5G model during the late Holocene (2-1 ka BP). Our evidence from Seychelles shows that the timing of when eustatic sea level first rose close to present is between the

  15. Sea level and shoreline reconstructions for the Red Sea: isostatic and tectonic considerations and implications for hominin migration out of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambeck, Kurt; Purcell, Anthony; Flemming, Nicholas. C.; Vita-Finzi, Claudio; Alsharekh, Abdullah M.; Bailey, Geoffrey N.

    2011-12-01

    The history of sea level within the Red Sea basin impinges on several areas of research. For archaeology and prehistory, past sea levels of the southern sector define possible pathways of human dispersal out of Africa. For tectonics, the interglacial sea levels provide estimates of rates for vertical tectonics. For global sea level studies, the Red Sea sediments contain a significant record of changing water chemistry with implications on the mass exchange between oceans and ice sheets during glacial cycles. And, because of its geometry and location, the Red Sea provides a test laboratory for models of glacio-hydro-isostasy. The Red Sea margins contain incomplete records of sea level for the Late Holocene, for the Last Glacial Maximum, for the Last Interglacial and for earlier interglacials. These are usually interpreted in terms of tectonics and ocean volume changes but it is shown here that the glacio-hydro-isostatic process is an additional important component with characteristic spatial variability. Through an iterative analysis of the Holocene and interglacial evidence a separation of the tectonic, isostatic and eustatic contributions is possible and we present a predictive model for palaeo-shorelines and water depths for a time interval encompassing the period proposed for migrations of modern humans out of Africa. Principal conclusions include the following. (i) Late Holocene sea level signals evolve along the length of the Red Sea, with characteristic mid-Holocene highstands not developing in the central part. (ii) Last Interglacial sea level signals are also location dependent and, in the absence of tectonics, are not predicted to occur more than 1-2 m above present sea level. (iii) For both periods, Red Sea levels at 'expected far-field' elevations are not necessarily indicative of tectonic stability and the evidence points to a long-wavelength tectonic uplift component along both the African and Arabian northern and central sides of the Red Sea. (iv) The

  16. NOAA Digital Coast Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer depicts potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. These coastal areas...

  17. Lithosphere and upper-mantle structure of the southern Baltic Sea estimated from modelling relative sea-level data with glacial isostatic adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffen, H.; Kaufmann, G.; Lampe, R.

    2014-06-01

    During the last glacial maximum, a large ice sheet covered Scandinavia, which depressed the earth's surface by several 100 m. In northern central Europe, mass redistribution in the upper mantle led to the development of a peripheral bulge. It has been subsiding since the begin of deglaciation due to the viscoelastic behaviour of the mantle. We analyse relative sea-level (RSL) data of southern Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Poland and Lithuania to determine the lithospheric thickness and radial mantle viscosity structure for distinct regional RSL subsets. We load a 1-D Maxwell-viscoelastic earth model with a global ice-load history model of the last glaciation. We test two commonly used ice histories, RSES from the Australian National University and ICE-5G from the University of Toronto. Our results indicate that the lithospheric thickness varies, depending on the ice model used, between 60 and 160 km. The lowest values are found in the Oslo Graben area and the western German Baltic Sea coast. In between, thickness increases by at least 30 km tracing the Ringkøbing-Fyn High. In Poland and Lithuania, lithospheric thickness reaches up to 160 km. However, the latter values are not well constrained as the confidence regions are large. Upper-mantle viscosity is found to bracket [2-7] × 1020 Pa s when using ICE-5G. Employing RSES much higher values of 2 × 1021 Pa s are obtained for the southern Baltic Sea. Further investigations should evaluate whether this ice-model version and/or the RSL data need revision. We confirm that the lower-mantle viscosity in Fennoscandia can only be poorly resolved. The lithospheric structure inferred from RSES partly supports structural features of regional and global lithosphere models based on thermal or seismological data. While there is agreement in eastern Europe and southwest Sweden, the structure in an area from south of Norway to northern Germany shows large discrepancies for two of the tested lithosphere models. The lithospheric

  18. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 1846-01-01 to 2015-07-31

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains the complete holdings of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) for sea level data that have been quality controlled, assessed, and...

  19. Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

    2012-01-01

    Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the

  20. Revised paleoenvironmental analysis of the Holocene portion of the Barbados sea-level record: Cobbler's Reef revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toscano, Marguerite A.

    2016-06-01

    Sample elevations corrected for tectonic uplift and assessed relative to local modeled sea levels provide a new perspective on paleoenvironmental history at Cobbler's Reef, Barbados. Previously, 14C-dated surface samples of fragmented Acropora palmata plotted above paleo sea level based on their present (uplifted) elevations, suggesting supratidal rubble deposited during a period of extreme storms (4500-3000 cal BP), precipitating reef demise. At several sites, however, A. palmata persisted, existing until ~370 cal BP. Uplift-corrected A. palmata sample elevations lie below the western Atlantic sea-level curve, and ~2 m below ICE-6G-modeled paleo sea level, under slow rates of sea-level rise, negating the possibility that Cobbler's Reef is a supratidal storm ridge. Most sites show limited age ranges from corals likely damaged/killed on the reef crest, not the mixed ages of rubble ridges, strongly suggesting the reef framework died off in stages over 6500 yr. Reef crest death assemblages invoke multiple paleohistoric causes, from ubiquitous hurricanes to anthropogenic impacts. Comparison of death assemblage ages to dated regional paleotempestological sequences, proxy-based paleotemperatures, recorded hurricanes, tsunamis, European settlement, deforestation, and resulting turbidity, reveals many possible factors inimical to the survival of A. palmata along Cobbler's Reef.